Icywinddale personal page - To The Moon

Icywinddale

Icywinddale

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2022-02-06

No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.

3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now

08-12

Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.

Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action

12-04

Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-06-22

[Weak] [Weak]

Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?

01-12

Bull shit

4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls

2024-12-17

Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?

Nvidia: This Could Be The Top

2024-09-04

Share your opinion about this news…

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-08-06

Nonsense

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-06-20

[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-08-30

[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-08-02

Nonsense

Sorry, the original content has been removed

10-27

Your AI can't summarize?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-11-21

nonsense

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-09-22

Brain-damaged articles

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-09-13

u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-09-09

Nonsense

Sorry, the original content has been removed

11-25

Another drama

11-11

😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?

Michael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants

08-19

Pinehead

Sorry, the original content has been removed

01-30

Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.

Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Information nuts","listText":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts","text":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. 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According to Burry, &#34;hyperscalers&#34; are doing exactly this.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a>  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a> by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The &#34;Big Short&#34; investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171986730","content_text":"Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of computing assets.In a recent social media post, Burry claimed that \"understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings,\" calling it \"one of the more common frauds of the modern era.\"The investor specifically targeted tech companies purchasing  NVIDIA  chips and servers, arguing they should not be extending the useful lives of computing equipment that typically has a 2-3 year product cycle. According to Burry, \"hyperscalers\" are doing exactly this.Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  Oracle  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  Meta Platforms, Inc. by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.The \"Big Short\" investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2,"META":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":493728671039832,"gmtCreate":1761561886297,"gmtModify":1761561890136,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Your AI can't summarize?","listText":"Your AI can't summarize?","text":"Your AI can't summarize?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/493728671039832","repostId":"2578361493","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469264182571040,"gmtCreate":1755604530560,"gmtModify":1755604534446,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pinehead","listText":"Pinehead","text":"Pinehead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/469264182571040","repostId":"2560135532","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":466650324324408,"gmtCreate":1754965957279,"gmtModify":1754969118934,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","listText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","text":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/466650324324408","repostId":"2558691235","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2558691235","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1754962385,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2558691235?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-08-12 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2558691235","media":"Reuters","summary":"Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-12 09:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0757359954.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC MF","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0784384876.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 USD","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","AAPL":"苹果","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","LU2065170008.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4538":"云计算","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc"},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20250812:nL4N3U402G:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2558691235","content_text":"Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an \"unequivocal antitrust violation.\"\"xAI will take immediate legal action,\" Musk said in an X post.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":398140816592984,"gmtCreate":1738227758347,"gmtModify":1738227973923,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","listText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","text":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398140816592984","repostId":"1101465849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101465849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738224612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101465849?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-30 16:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101465849","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2576559629\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.</p></li><li><p>15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p></li><li><p>NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8271f5218e30171f478337709702edd\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>The market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:</p><h2 id=\"id_357161106\">1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble Narrative</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped Demand</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).</p><p>Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.</p><p>A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.</p><p>Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8d33a2cf85359c91492e53b0a25cd64\" alt=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" title=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"173\"/><span>Nvidia purchase obligations</span></p><p>If demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.</p><h2 id=\"id_3346631318\">2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and China</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile Markets</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76daa2c745b22e4f279e5535a5f895fa\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer</span></p><p>15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8582bf3c06050a3056b08a9aebbcd73\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country</span></p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.</p><h2 id=\"id_1901870406\">3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for Perfection</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b251921db83bf15fef6652dad5b5b42\" alt=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" title=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"84\"/><span>Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio</span></p><p>NVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p><p>Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AI demand plateauing</p></li><li><p>Cyclical overcapacity in GPUs</p></li><li><p>Geopolitical and competitive pressures</p></li></ul><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.</p><h2 id=\"id_4015481009\">4. Structural Weaknesses in Business Model</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&amp;D Investments</strong></p><p>NVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging players</p></li><li><p>Overcapacity, leading to price wars</p></li><li><p>Rising R&amp;D and supply costs to maintain its technological edge</p></li><li><p>R&amp;D bloat: R&amp;D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)</p></li></ul><p>If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.</p><p>Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&amp;D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.</p><h2 id=\"id_3212871234\">Catalysts for the Short Thesis</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Demand Plateau:</strong> AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.</p></li><li><p><strong>Geopolitical Restrictions:</strong> Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings Miss:</strong> A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.</p></li><li><p><strong>Valuation Correction:</strong> Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2732796899\">Impact on thesis</h2><p>I am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.</p><p>That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers&#39; CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Bearish Momentum Explained\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-30 16:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101465849","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.JHVEPhotoThe market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble NarrativeKey Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped DemandNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.Nvidia purchase obligationsIf demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and ChinaKey Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile MarketsNVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by countryWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for PerfectionKey Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) RatioNvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratioNVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:AI demand plateauingCyclical overcapacity in GPUsGeopolitical and competitive pressuresWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.4. Structural Weaknesses in Business ModelKey Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&D InvestmentsNVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging playersOvercapacity, leading to price warsRising R&D and supply costs to maintain its technological edgeR&D bloat: R&D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.Catalysts for the Short ThesisDemand Plateau: AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.Geopolitical Restrictions: Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.Earnings Miss: A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.Valuation Correction: Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.Impact on thesisI am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers' CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391820958122160,"gmtCreate":1736665464954,"gmtModify":1736667246789,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit","listText":"Bull shit","text":"Bull shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391820958122160","repostId":"1162107727","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162107727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1736647249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162107727?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-12 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162107727","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1684018099\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.</p></li><li><p>The surge in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p></li><li><p>Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.</p></li><li><p>The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" title=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.</span></p><p></p><p><strong>BING-JHEN HONG</strong></p><p></p><p>The bullish case for <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company&#39;s blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia&#39;s main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock&#39;s outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.</p><h2 id=\"id_3090282346\">1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia&#39;s Main Customers</h2><p>It could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia&#39;s earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia&#39;s sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.</p><p>One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia&#39;s chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.</p><p>Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&amp;P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia&#39;s sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia&#39;s coffers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f238808ceeaa53ad53bbf8b3ac0497\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Capex</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>This huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&amp;P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756a69bc3fb19081b4586223420dd9fe\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>The problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.</p><h2 id=\"id_2413479590\">2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For Sales</h2><p>An additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae2b98938d00814e2e1fdf7b61cee20\" alt=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" title=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/><span>Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>Considering that around half of the companies&#39; revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p><h2 id=\"id_4278785936\">3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation Projections</h2><p>The price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1b417dee9e02ccf920a94eeee0c6f89\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" title=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\"/><span>Chart of NVDA Option Volatility</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Price of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><p>Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company&#39;s earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3da07b16243a12a5d8e85c36d6ffd820\" alt=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" title=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"/><span>Table of PEG Ratios</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Barrons</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1548182104\">4) Concerning Chart Pattern</h2><p>Despite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia&#39;s stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2206ab5285cec323d0c2e852c6445b66\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA\" title=\"Chart of NVDA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/><span>Chart of NVDA</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_4263502009\">Summary</h2><p>Nvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-12 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162107727","content_text":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia's accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.BING-JHEN HONGThe bullish case for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company's blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia's main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia's accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock's outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia's Main CustomersIt could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia's earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia's sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia's chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia's sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia's coffers.Chart of Mag 7 CapexBloombergThis huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.Chart of Mag 7 Cash flowsBloombergThe problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For SalesAn additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.Chart of Mega Cap Accounts ReceivableBloombergConsidering that around half of the companies' revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation ProjectionsThe price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.Chart of NVDA Option VolatilityPrice of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company's earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.Table of PEG RatiosBarrons4) Concerning Chart PatternDespite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia's stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.Chart of NVDANVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)SummaryNvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382617526878608,"gmtCreate":1734447495602,"gmtModify":1734447535935,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","listText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","text":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382617526878608","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377631316160752,"gmtCreate":1733224759620,"gmtModify":1733230487611,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","listText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","text":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377631316160752","repostId":"1144849219","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144849219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733206383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144849219?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-03 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144849219","media":"Trend Force","summary":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NV","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d68eeb02c6b163c51fbae9253b663f6\" alt=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" title=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\"/><span>NVIDIA Blackwell</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1724652185079","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProduction Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-03 14:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/><strong>Trend Force</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144849219","content_text":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.NVIDIA BlackwellSources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373543719842000,"gmtCreate":1732237062466,"gmtModify":1732239466422,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","listText":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","text":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373543719842000","repostId":"2485444956","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373241717743784,"gmtCreate":1732152928778,"gmtModify":1732152932348,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense","listText":"nonsense","text":"nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373241717743784","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365986993258656,"gmtCreate":1730352866695,"gmtModify":1730352870520,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low level&nbsp;","listText":"Low level&nbsp;","text":"Low level","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365986993258656","repostId":"1107275997","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353935568728112,"gmtCreate":1727418140095,"gmtModify":1727418991512,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","listText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","text":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353935568728112","repostId":"2470763038","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352503559565592,"gmtCreate":1727100416096,"gmtModify":1727100420984,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","listText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","text":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352503559565592","repostId":"2469136521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352025370411096,"gmtCreate":1726982348711,"gmtModify":1726988736645,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Brain-damaged articles","listText":"Brain-damaged articles","text":"Brain-damaged articles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352025370411096","repostId":"2469511719","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350719366373720,"gmtCreate":1726650395890,"gmtModify":1726650399532,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another liar.","listText":"Another liar.","text":"Another liar.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350719366373720","repostId":"1191591104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191591104","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1726641553,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191591104?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-18 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says He Would Pull His Money from the Market If Harris Wins Election","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191591104","media":"Fox Business","summary":"Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the Democ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the Democrat nominee&#39;s economic policies would spook investors.</p><p>The Paulson &amp; Co. founder, known for his lucrative bet against the subprime mortgage in 2007, appeared on FOX Business&#39; &#34;The Claman Countdown,&#34; where host Liz Claman asked him what he sees as the next big bet similar to that.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26217d693544662a8757fbe76f185dba\" alt=\"Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)\" title=\"Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"523\"/><span>Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)</span></p><p>&#34;Well, I would say it very much depends on who&#39;s in the White House and who controls Congress,&#34; Paulson replied. &#34;I&#39;d be very concerned if Harris is elected and pursues the tax plans and other economic plans that she articulated.&#34;</p><p>Paulson said during the interview that former President Trump and Harris&#39; plans for the economy are very different, noting that Trump wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts implemented during his term in office while Harris wants to let them expire.</p><p>He also noted that Harris has proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and wants to raise the capital gains rate from 20% to 28%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a723aa42a1f9edac3d9c30a6f56c2a60\" alt=\"Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)\" title=\"Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"523\"/><span>Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)</span></p><p>The billionaire pointed to Harris&#39; proposed 25% tax on unrealized gains for individuals making $100 million or more, and he predicted that, if implemented, it &#34;would cause mass selling of almost everything – stocks, bonds, homes, art – I think it would result in a crash in the markets and an immediate, pretty quick recession.&#34;</p><p>Claman went on to note that some people who were concerned about the policies of previous presidents, namely Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden, pulled their money out of the markets when they were elected, and the move turned out to be a big mistake as the markets continued to perform well.</p><p>But Paulson has said that market timing and investor timing will really matter depending on who is president, and Claman asked him if he is ready to take that chance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/218fff4868171aaa606369d587ac33b6\" alt=\"Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)\" title=\"Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"523\"/><span>Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)</span></p><p>&#34;It depends on the policy,&#34; Paulson said. &#34;I think if Harris was elected, I would pull my money from the market. I&#39;d go into cash, and I&#39;d go into gold because I think the uncertainty regarding the plans they outlined would create a lot of uncertainty in the markets and likely lower markets.&#34;</p><p>When pressed by Claman, Paulson reiterated that he would sell the liquid equities that he owns if Harris wins the White House.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602566126337","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says He Would Pull His Money from the Market If Harris Wins Election</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says He Would Pull His Money from the Market If Harris Wins Election\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-18 14:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/billionaire-hedge-fund-manager-says-he-would-pull-his-money-from-market-harris-wins-election><strong>Fox Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/billionaire-hedge-fund-manager-says-he-would-pull-his-money-from-market-harris-wins-election\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/billionaire-hedge-fund-manager-says-he-would-pull-his-money-from-market-harris-wins-election","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191591104","content_text":"Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the Democrat nominee's economic policies would spook investors.The Paulson & Co. founder, known for his lucrative bet against the subprime mortgage in 2007, appeared on FOX Business' \"The Claman Countdown,\" where host Liz Claman asked him what he sees as the next big bet similar to that.Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)\"Well, I would say it very much depends on who's in the White House and who controls Congress,\" Paulson replied. \"I'd be very concerned if Harris is elected and pursues the tax plans and other economic plans that she articulated.\"Paulson said during the interview that former President Trump and Harris' plans for the economy are very different, noting that Trump wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts implemented during his term in office while Harris wants to let them expire.He also noted that Harris has proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and wants to raise the capital gains rate from 20% to 28%.Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)The billionaire pointed to Harris' proposed 25% tax on unrealized gains for individuals making $100 million or more, and he predicted that, if implemented, it \"would cause mass selling of almost everything – stocks, bonds, homes, art – I think it would result in a crash in the markets and an immediate, pretty quick recession.\"Claman went on to note that some people who were concerned about the policies of previous presidents, namely Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden, pulled their money out of the markets when they were elected, and the move turned out to be a big mistake as the markets continued to perform well.But Paulson has said that market timing and investor timing will really matter depending on who is president, and Claman asked him if he is ready to take that chance.Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)\"It depends on the policy,\" Paulson said. \"I think if Harris was elected, I would pull my money from the market. I'd go into cash, and I'd go into gold because I think the uncertainty regarding the plans they outlined would create a lot of uncertainty in the markets and likely lower markets.\"When pressed by Claman, Paulson reiterated that he would sell the liquid equities that he owns if Harris wins the White House.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".IXIC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350073235079400,"gmtCreate":1726495007688,"gmtModify":1726495011489,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The writer knows nothing","listText":"The writer knows nothing","text":"The writer knows nothing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350073235079400","repostId":"2467155168","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348977889988880,"gmtCreate":1726220390662,"gmtModify":1726220394262,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","listText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","text":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348977889988880","repostId":"2466270404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347588520194368,"gmtCreate":1725884011157,"gmtModify":1725884014240,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347588520194368","repostId":"2466562131","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9098656424,"gmtCreate":1644120172943,"gmtModify":1676533892418,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","listText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","text":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098656424","repostId":"2208317024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208317024","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644039774,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208317024?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 13:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208317024","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These outstanding companies have the potential to generate market-crushing returns.","content":"<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 13:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4202":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208317024","content_text":"The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with uncertainty about inflation, the Fed's pending rate hikes, and the ongoing pandemic adding to the worries. But if you're an investor with a long time horizon, like me, then now could be the perfect time to add fresh capital to your portfolio. When the market seems overly pessimistic and full of fear is usually the best time to be aggressive. With $1,000 to invest, look no further than Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) as worthy additions to your portfolio. Image source: Getty Images.1. Lululemon Since February 2017, Lululemon's stock has soared 390%, an outstanding investment if you got in at that time. This performance can be attributed to Lululemon's impressive sales and profit growth of 166% and 175%, respectively, over the past five years. Expanding the store footprint, now at 552 locations, also helped. This burgeoning apparel brand sports a better gross margin, at 57.2%, than industry leader Nike. A higher metric generally indicates customers' propensity to pay premium prices for a company's products. In Lululemon's case, having a strong direct-to-consumer presence -- a channel that represented 40% of sales in the most recent quarter -- is crucial for brand relevance. The business first gained popularity as a seller of yoga pants to women, but it has now become a major men's outfitter. The men's segment increased revenue 44% year over year in the fiscal 2021 third quarter, while the women's segment grew 25%. Diversification of revenue sources is a positive sign. Lululemon shares have lost 30% in value over the past three months as the threat of higher interest rates negatively impacts high-multiple, high-growth stocks. Consequently, investors are presented with a great opportunity to buy shares in this thriving retailer at a meaningful pullback. 2. Netflix This top streaming stock reported fourth-quarter 2021 financial results on Jan. 20 that disappointed investors. Management guided to 2.5 million net new subscribers in the current quarter, far less than the 6.9 million Wall Street was expecting. But despite the stock being down 17% since that announcement, Netflix has been a massive winner, rising 200% over the past five years. Quarterly membership growth has certainly been irregular and unpredictable after the pandemic started in the spring of 2020, but the secular shift away from traditional cable TV and toward streaming is not going away. According to data from S&P Global, there were 1.1 billion households worldwide with a cable TV subscription in 2020. This means that Netflix, with its 221.8 million customers today, still has a large runway for expansion in the years ahead.  Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, through his firm Pershing Square Capital Management, took advantage of the market souring on Netflix by scooping up 3.1 million shares. His firm is now a top-20 shareholder in the company. Ackman has a proven track record of pouncing on attractive investment opportunities when the time is right. That's a great endorsement for why you might want to consider owning Netflix stock as well.  3. PayPalAnother major historical winner is fintech behemoth PayPal. Its stock has climbed 379% since the business was spun off from eBay in July 2015. PayPal has long been a pioneer in the digital payments space, and it now counts an impressive 426 million active accounts, of which 34 million are merchants. I think there are three main factors that make PayPal a special business. For starters, the company's brand exemplifies a relentless focus on security and ease of use. These characteristics, along with massive scale to the tune of $1.25 trillion in total payment volume in 2021, are probably why e-commerce giant Amazon chose to partner with PayPal's Venmo starting this year. Additionally, PayPal possesses remarkable financial metrics. In 2021, the company's non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating margin of 24.8% was stellar. And the business continued to prove that it's a cash machine, generating $5.4 billion in free cash flow during the 12-month period. Lastly, the company is not done growing. Along with the Amazon partnership, initiatives to bolster the PayPal mobile app and an acquisition like that of Japanese buy now, pay later specialist Paidy showcase management's huge ambition to one day have 1 billion daily active users. PayPal's shares are off more than 50% from their recent high set in July 2021. The stock currently trades for a lower and more attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of below 40, making it a solid investment right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":1,"NFLX":0.6,"LULU":1,"AMZN":0.81}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274806242608","authorId":"3479274806242608","name":"wubbix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0164ea7c27dfdf8c987c88fa9aebdea","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274806242608","authorIdStr":"3479274806242608"},"content":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","text":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","html":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future."},{"author":{"id":"3479274793181513","authorId":"3479274793181513","name":"glintzi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916d922cdb12fb6f658dbad7646c76a5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274793181513","authorIdStr":"3479274793181513"},"content":"The decline of PYPL's share price is mainly due to its performance falling short of expectations. Only the market reaction is a little intense.","text":"The decline of PYPL's share price is mainly due to its performance falling short of expectations. Only the market reaction is a little intense.","html":"The decline of PYPL's share price is mainly due to its performance falling short of expectations. Only the market reaction is a little intense."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":466650324324408,"gmtCreate":1754965957279,"gmtModify":1754969118934,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","listText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","text":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/466650324324408","repostId":"2558691235","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2558691235","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1754962385,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2558691235?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-08-12 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2558691235","media":"Reuters","summary":"Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-12 09:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0757359954.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC MF","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0784384876.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 USD","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","AAPL":"苹果","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","LU2065170008.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4538":"云计算","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc"},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20250812:nL4N3U402G:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2558691235","content_text":"Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an \"unequivocal antitrust violation.\"\"xAI will take immediate legal action,\" Musk said in an X post.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507029851910888,"gmtCreate":1764808378544,"gmtModify":1764811702809,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts","listText":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts","text":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/507029851910888","repostId":"2588078687","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319460476612744,"gmtCreate":1719022223164,"gmtModify":1719024673775,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319460476612744","repostId":"2445075366","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2445075366","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719023400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2445075366?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-22 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2445075366","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Although Nvidia has been all the hype, maybe now is time to take a step back and reconsider investment into the stock.","content":"<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-22 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2445075366","content_text":"Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are higher than its peers, and the company faces strong competitive pressure.Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.comNvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) current 10-for-1 stock split has gained investor’s attention because it makes the Nvidia stock more accessible to small investors.Overall, Nvidia’s performance has been awe-inspiring, with an 155.58% upside year-to-date. The company dominates the competition with an 80% market share for AI chips. Still, its stock price is at an all-time high again, which begs whether its valuation is sound. Nvidia Stock Q1 SuccessNvidia experienced substantial growth across the year. The company’s current financial reports for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 show a significant increase in revenue to $26.04 billion, up 262% year over year.The gross margin also improved to 78.4% from 64.6% in the same quarter last year. Nvidia’s earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $6.12, which is 416% up YOY. AI Might Be Overhyped Nvidia’s financial success seems to justify the hype in its stock. However, this might not be the case when we consider the AI market as a whole. About $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips, but AI startups have only generated around $3 billion in sales. The Wall Street Journal interviewed John Chambers, the CEO of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) during the dot-com bubble. He draws some parallels between Cisco then and Nvidia right now.Both companies had a dominant market share in a large new market while benefiting from large investments from the industry before it was profitable. Cisco’s stock today trades at around $47, never recovering from its peak of $77 in 2000. Competitive Risks Are PrevalentNvidia faces fierce competition in the semiconductor production industry, with the major two being Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).China’s development of its semiconductors could threaten Nvidia’s position internationally. China has long relied on foreign companies for semiconductors like Nvidia, but it plans to produce 70% of its domestic chip use by 2025.Cheap Chinese chips could flood the international markets like its EVs, disrupting pricing for everyone in the industry. Nvidia’s Valuation Is a Gamble Even though Cisco’s stock price never recovered, that didn’t mean it wasn’t a good company. Today, it still has around 41% of the market share and generates over $12 billion a year in revenue.Similarly, Nvidia doesn’t have to be a bad company for its stock to be overvalued and for investors to never make their money back for many years. Analysts have an average price target of $124.14, below its current trading price as of writing. This shows that the market is doubting Nvidia as it continues to break all-time highs seriously.The higher the stock price, the more investors will sell off to take home their profits. It’s currently trading at a trailing Price-to-sales (P/E) ratio of 79.29x and a forward P/E of 52.08x, which accounts for the estimated earnings increase next year.Even so, if we compile the trailing P/E ratio for all the stocks in the Magnificent 7 — a list of tech conglomerates that many already consider overvalued — we get an average P/E ratio of 48.31x. Many of these companies are poised to ride the AI wave but still at a much lower valuation. Great Company, Lousy Stock Nvidia’s stock price has done exceptionally well. It’s financials, no doubt, back that story.However, great companies don’t necessarily mean outstanding stock. It took the Nasdaq-100 15 years to recover from the bubble despite many of those stocks being household names today.The growth of the AI industry is legitimate, but Nvidia isn’t the only way you can invest in it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391820958122160,"gmtCreate":1736665464954,"gmtModify":1736667246789,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit","listText":"Bull shit","text":"Bull shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391820958122160","repostId":"1162107727","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162107727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1736647249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162107727?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-12 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162107727","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1684018099\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.</p></li><li><p>The surge in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p></li><li><p>Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.</p></li><li><p>The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" title=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.</span></p><p></p><p><strong>BING-JHEN HONG</strong></p><p></p><p>The bullish case for <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company&#39;s blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia&#39;s main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock&#39;s outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.</p><h2 id=\"id_3090282346\">1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia&#39;s Main Customers</h2><p>It could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia&#39;s earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia&#39;s sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.</p><p>One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia&#39;s chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.</p><p>Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&amp;P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia&#39;s sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia&#39;s coffers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f238808ceeaa53ad53bbf8b3ac0497\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Capex</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>This huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&amp;P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756a69bc3fb19081b4586223420dd9fe\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>The problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.</p><h2 id=\"id_2413479590\">2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For Sales</h2><p>An additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae2b98938d00814e2e1fdf7b61cee20\" alt=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" title=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/><span>Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>Considering that around half of the companies&#39; revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p><h2 id=\"id_4278785936\">3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation Projections</h2><p>The price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1b417dee9e02ccf920a94eeee0c6f89\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" title=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\"/><span>Chart of NVDA Option Volatility</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Price of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><p>Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company&#39;s earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3da07b16243a12a5d8e85c36d6ffd820\" alt=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" title=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"/><span>Table of PEG Ratios</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Barrons</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1548182104\">4) Concerning Chart Pattern</h2><p>Despite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia&#39;s stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2206ab5285cec323d0c2e852c6445b66\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA\" title=\"Chart of NVDA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/><span>Chart of NVDA</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_4263502009\">Summary</h2><p>Nvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-12 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162107727","content_text":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia's accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.BING-JHEN HONGThe bullish case for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company's blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia's main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia's accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock's outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia's Main CustomersIt could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia's earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia's sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia's chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia's sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia's coffers.Chart of Mag 7 CapexBloombergThis huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.Chart of Mag 7 Cash flowsBloombergThe problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For SalesAn additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.Chart of Mega Cap Accounts ReceivableBloombergConsidering that around half of the companies' revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation ProjectionsThe price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.Chart of NVDA Option VolatilityPrice of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company's earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.Table of PEG RatiosBarrons4) Concerning Chart PatternDespite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia's stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.Chart of NVDANVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)SummaryNvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382617526878608,"gmtCreate":1734447495602,"gmtModify":1734447535935,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","listText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","text":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382617526878608","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345446838050944,"gmtCreate":1725379900830,"gmtModify":1725379902772,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345446838050944","repostId":"2464383499","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335551065743560,"gmtCreate":1722957736271,"gmtModify":1722957739644,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335551065743560","repostId":"2457119010","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319003742466224,"gmtCreate":1718895207578,"gmtModify":1718895377243,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319003742466224","repostId":"2444055984","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343990447882384,"gmtCreate":1725006664179,"gmtModify":1725006667888,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343990447882384","repostId":"2463213734","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334136701460720,"gmtCreate":1722609643312,"gmtModify":1722609647035,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334136701460720","repostId":"2456286685","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":493728671039832,"gmtCreate":1761561886297,"gmtModify":1761561890136,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Your AI can't summarize?","listText":"Your AI can't summarize?","text":"Your AI can't summarize?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/493728671039832","repostId":"2578361493","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373241717743784,"gmtCreate":1732152928778,"gmtModify":1732152932348,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense","listText":"nonsense","text":"nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373241717743784","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352025370411096,"gmtCreate":1726982348711,"gmtModify":1726988736645,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Brain-damaged articles","listText":"Brain-damaged articles","text":"Brain-damaged articles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352025370411096","repostId":"2469511719","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348977889988880,"gmtCreate":1726220390662,"gmtModify":1726220394262,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","listText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","text":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348977889988880","repostId":"2466270404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347588520194368,"gmtCreate":1725884011157,"gmtModify":1725884014240,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347588520194368","repostId":"2466562131","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":503924753331056,"gmtCreate":1764051704787,"gmtModify":1764051708456,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another drama","listText":"Another drama","text":"Another drama","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/503924753331056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":498952909767392,"gmtCreate":1762839657781,"gmtModify":1762840454453,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?","listText":"😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?","text":"😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/498952909767392","repostId":"1171986730","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171986730","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1762831311,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171986730?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-11 11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171986730","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of computing assets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a recent social media post, Burry claimed that &#34;understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings,&#34; calling it &#34;one of the more common frauds of the modern era.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The investor specifically targeted tech companies purchasing  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>  chips and servers, arguing they should not be extending the useful lives of computing equipment that typically has a 2-3 year product cycle. According to Burry, &#34;hyperscalers&#34; are doing exactly this.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a>  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a> by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The &#34;Big Short&#34; investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-11 11:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of computing assets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a recent social media post, Burry claimed that &#34;understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings,&#34; calling it &#34;one of the more common frauds of the modern era.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The investor specifically targeted tech companies purchasing  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>  chips and servers, arguing they should not be extending the useful lives of computing equipment that typically has a 2-3 year product cycle. According to Burry, &#34;hyperscalers&#34; are doing exactly this.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a>  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a> by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The &#34;Big Short&#34; investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171986730","content_text":"Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of computing assets.In a recent social media post, Burry claimed that \"understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings,\" calling it \"one of the more common frauds of the modern era.\"The investor specifically targeted tech companies purchasing  NVIDIA  chips and servers, arguing they should not be extending the useful lives of computing equipment that typically has a 2-3 year product cycle. According to Burry, \"hyperscalers\" are doing exactly this.Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  Oracle  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  Meta Platforms, Inc. by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.The \"Big Short\" investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2,"META":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469264182571040,"gmtCreate":1755604530560,"gmtModify":1755604534446,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pinehead","listText":"Pinehead","text":"Pinehead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/469264182571040","repostId":"2560135532","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":398140816592984,"gmtCreate":1738227758347,"gmtModify":1738227973923,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","listText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","text":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398140816592984","repostId":"1101465849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101465849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738224612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101465849?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-30 16:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101465849","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2576559629\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.</p></li><li><p>15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p></li><li><p>NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8271f5218e30171f478337709702edd\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>The market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:</p><h2 id=\"id_357161106\">1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble Narrative</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped Demand</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).</p><p>Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.</p><p>A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.</p><p>Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8d33a2cf85359c91492e53b0a25cd64\" alt=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" title=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"173\"/><span>Nvidia purchase obligations</span></p><p>If demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.</p><h2 id=\"id_3346631318\">2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and China</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile Markets</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76daa2c745b22e4f279e5535a5f895fa\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer</span></p><p>15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8582bf3c06050a3056b08a9aebbcd73\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country</span></p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.</p><h2 id=\"id_1901870406\">3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for Perfection</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b251921db83bf15fef6652dad5b5b42\" alt=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" title=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"84\"/><span>Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio</span></p><p>NVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p><p>Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AI demand plateauing</p></li><li><p>Cyclical overcapacity in GPUs</p></li><li><p>Geopolitical and competitive pressures</p></li></ul><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.</p><h2 id=\"id_4015481009\">4. Structural Weaknesses in Business Model</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&amp;D Investments</strong></p><p>NVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging players</p></li><li><p>Overcapacity, leading to price wars</p></li><li><p>Rising R&amp;D and supply costs to maintain its technological edge</p></li><li><p>R&amp;D bloat: R&amp;D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)</p></li></ul><p>If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.</p><p>Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&amp;D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.</p><h2 id=\"id_3212871234\">Catalysts for the Short Thesis</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Demand Plateau:</strong> AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.</p></li><li><p><strong>Geopolitical Restrictions:</strong> Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings Miss:</strong> A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.</p></li><li><p><strong>Valuation Correction:</strong> Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2732796899\">Impact on thesis</h2><p>I am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.</p><p>That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers&#39; CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Bearish Momentum Explained\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-30 16:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101465849","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.JHVEPhotoThe market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble NarrativeKey Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped DemandNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.Nvidia purchase obligationsIf demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and ChinaKey Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile MarketsNVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by countryWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for PerfectionKey Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) RatioNvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratioNVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:AI demand plateauingCyclical overcapacity in GPUsGeopolitical and competitive pressuresWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.4. Structural Weaknesses in Business ModelKey Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&D InvestmentsNVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging playersOvercapacity, leading to price warsRising R&D and supply costs to maintain its technological edgeR&D bloat: R&D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.Catalysts for the Short ThesisDemand Plateau: AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.Geopolitical Restrictions: Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.Earnings Miss: A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.Valuation Correction: Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.Impact on thesisI am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers' CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}