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2022-05-28

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2022-05-27

Great

Bear Market Playbook: Cash, Patience And Vigilance

2022-05-27

Thanks for sharing

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2021-03-22

Nice article

Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why

2021-03-15

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2021-03-15

To the moon!

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23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Market Playbook: Cash, Patience And Vigilance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238856736","media":"MoneyShow","summary":"SummaryOn the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&amp;P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages.</li><li>The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings.</li><li>As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.</li><li>After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caec9c220bfd36f42efd9859baf1d5a2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Adam Gault/OJO Images via Getty Images By Monty Guild</span></p><p>The damage to stocks is more evident internally than externally. On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&amp;P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages. A lot of pain has already happened.</p><p>There are some external factors at work here, and these may be ushering in some structural changes to global finance and economics. But still, what is happening right now is altogether simpler, and in a way, that’s comforting.</p><p>The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates - the “cost of money” - are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings (that is, the P/E ratio, or price-to-earnings multiple).</p><p>As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. We believe it will fall back towards historical norms; indeed, it already is doing so. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dfb7c5fd7b17a296ba44bd22eca7c5b\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>S&amp;P 500 NTM P/E (Author)</span></p><p>The central message to investors is this: what is happening is not outlandish; it is normal and expected. Indeed, it is actually creating opportunities to buy high-quality assets when their prices have declined to sane levels in accord with historical norms and prevailing industry conditions. Many high-quality assets will see their prices decline <i>below</i> those sane levels, presenting particularly appealing opportunities.</p><p>What’s happening is simply the result of a hangover. Extraordinary monetary policy made the financial system flush with liquidity, which was used to bid up stock prices - and in the last stages of this process, all sense of proportion, caution, and historical norms was cast aside.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/820584a96aa27afaa500c78ed0fd92b6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Money Supply YoY Growth (M2) (Morgan Stanley Research)</span></p><p>Now the punch bowl is being taken away from the party, sirens can be heard faintly in the background, and sobriety is beginning to set in. Note the word <i>beginning.</i> Our firm has an institutional memory of the inflation-driven bear market of the 1970s.</p><p>We believe that a market-level bottom still needs to be found - simply because more pain remains to be inflicted on some industries by rising rates if the Fed is even going to <i>approach</i>making good on its stated intention to deal with inflation. And while inflation is likely peaking now, we believe, as we have said for some time, that it will not return to the pre-pandemic 1-2% norm for many years.</p><p><b>A Bear Market Strategy</b></p><p>Patience is the watch word. The P/E chart above shows the extent to which valuations have already declined. However, it’s important to bear in mind that this is a market-wide chart, concealing wide variation among industries and individual companies about what constitutes an attractive valuation.</p><p>The sharp decline in market-level valuations points out a notable characteristic of contemporary markets: the prominence of passive investing, which now comprises most of market flows, means that in a period of liquidation such as we are now experiencing, good companies will get sold off indiscriminately with bad.</p><p>After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety, and we are already identifying them.</p><p><b>Innovation and Mean-Reversion</b></p><p>The current swoon may be setting up a once-in-a-decade opportunity. We have seen this movie before, and it is not fun to watch - but value is being created. We do not favor moving portfolios totally to cash, because we believe that there will still be tactical opportunities and worthwhile long-term defensible holds even in the midst of a general liquidation. Further, in an inflationary environment, holding cash is in itself risky and costly.</p><p>Reversion to the mean is a reality. We mean no disrespect to ARK Invest and its management when we point out that on a five-year basis, the performance of the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), a flagship of the most prominent tech innovators and disruptors, has now fallen below the S&amp;P 500.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa712dc92eeb3f8a56d1e7eb63ef2636\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY, ARKK (Morgan Stanley Research)</span></p><p>That chart is itself a perfect visual representation of mean reversion. However, it’s important to remember that the market is not the economy; and the economy is not the current stage of the economic cycle.</p><p>Just as in the dot com bust - perhaps even more so - among the present-day stock market wreckage of decimated innovators, there remain companies that are at the forefront of the technological transformation of the world through networking, digitization, automation, and artificial intelligence.</p><p>Many of these are components of ARK’s funds, and will become new Amazons and Googles in their respective industries - but not before they’ve endured more exile in the wilderness.</p><p>As a quick note on crypto, we have watched the implosion of LUNA (LUNA-USD) and UST (UST-USD) with interest. To us, the takeaway is simple: the wild west days of crypto are ending, and the regulators are coming. As we have said for years, we believe this is a good thing. Regulators aren’t perfect, but they are necessary, and financial history shows the disasters that can unfold in their absence.</p><p><b>Investment implications</b></p><p>Multiple contraction alone on the basis of rising rates suggests a 3800 target for the S&amp;P 500. However, should earnings disappoint or more signs of recession appear, a deeper market-wide decline would likely be in the cards. It is not yet time to sound the “all clear.”</p><p>We could have a choppy or lower market with some rallies and declines until later this year, when the market has had a chance to see how much corporate profits will be impacted by the ongoing inflation, and which industries will be hurt and helped by inflation. It will gradually become clear whether we’re entering a multi-year bear market or simply enduring a deep correction within the market’s many-decade upward trajectory.</p><p>The reason you have to maintain some optimism is that the movement of fear and negative sentiment from <i>high</i> to <i>neutral</i> can see markets rally a lot, long before sentiment is actually bullish. On the positive side, as we have noted, some real bargains are starting to appear and we are refining our buy list of companies that we believe have strong long-term prospects.</p><p>However, the coming bull market, when it emerges, is unlikely to be a QE-driven bull market like what prevailed from 2009 to 2021. Because it will be based more on economic, revenue, and earnings growth, it will be choppier, more volatile, and more company-, sector-, and industry-specific than the previous bull market.</p><p>We believe elements of the commodity complex, such as food and battery minerals, will be attractive. Future growth areas - all under the rubric of “growth at a reasonable price” - will include software, disruptive technologies, semiconductors, fintech and defi, and cybersecurity, among others.</p><p>When investing in innovation, focus on influential, substantive innovations - innovations that most deeply affect standards of living, and are important to further real-world technological and economic progress. In short, not mere novelty items; this is where patience might be required.</p><p>Moving forward, strong margins and balance sheets are likely to draw more attention than they did in an era where investors focused somewhat myopically on revenue growth.</p><p>We believe high inflation in food, clothing, shelter, fuel, and other consumer necessities, combined with wages not keeping pace with inflation, will weaken discretionary consumer spending. Supply chains will remain a point of difficulty and concern, and the process of reshoring and the transition will continue for years.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1653567943406","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Market Playbook: Cash, Patience And Vigilance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Market Playbook: Cash, Patience And Vigilance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-26 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-58807/bear-market-playbook-cash-patience-and-vigilance/?scode=044063><strong>MoneyShow</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOn the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-58807/bear-market-playbook-cash-patience-and-vigilance/?scode=044063\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-58807/bear-market-playbook-cash-patience-and-vigilance/?scode=044063","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238856736","content_text":"SummaryOn the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages.The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings.As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety.Adam Gault/OJO Images via Getty Images By Monty GuildThe damage to stocks is more evident internally than externally. On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages. A lot of pain has already happened.There are some external factors at work here, and these may be ushering in some structural changes to global finance and economics. But still, what is happening right now is altogether simpler, and in a way, that’s comforting.The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates - the “cost of money” - are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings (that is, the P/E ratio, or price-to-earnings multiple).As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. We believe it will fall back towards historical norms; indeed, it already is doing so. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.S&P 500 NTM P/E (Author)The central message to investors is this: what is happening is not outlandish; it is normal and expected. Indeed, it is actually creating opportunities to buy high-quality assets when their prices have declined to sane levels in accord with historical norms and prevailing industry conditions. Many high-quality assets will see their prices decline below those sane levels, presenting particularly appealing opportunities.What’s happening is simply the result of a hangover. Extraordinary monetary policy made the financial system flush with liquidity, which was used to bid up stock prices - and in the last stages of this process, all sense of proportion, caution, and historical norms was cast aside.Money Supply YoY Growth (M2) (Morgan Stanley Research)Now the punch bowl is being taken away from the party, sirens can be heard faintly in the background, and sobriety is beginning to set in. Note the word beginning. Our firm has an institutional memory of the inflation-driven bear market of the 1970s.We believe that a market-level bottom still needs to be found - simply because more pain remains to be inflicted on some industries by rising rates if the Fed is even going to approachmaking good on its stated intention to deal with inflation. And while inflation is likely peaking now, we believe, as we have said for some time, that it will not return to the pre-pandemic 1-2% norm for many years.A Bear Market StrategyPatience is the watch word. The P/E chart above shows the extent to which valuations have already declined. However, it’s important to bear in mind that this is a market-wide chart, concealing wide variation among industries and individual companies about what constitutes an attractive valuation.The sharp decline in market-level valuations points out a notable characteristic of contemporary markets: the prominence of passive investing, which now comprises most of market flows, means that in a period of liquidation such as we are now experiencing, good companies will get sold off indiscriminately with bad.After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety, and we are already identifying them.Innovation and Mean-ReversionThe current swoon may be setting up a once-in-a-decade opportunity. We have seen this movie before, and it is not fun to watch - but value is being created. We do not favor moving portfolios totally to cash, because we believe that there will still be tactical opportunities and worthwhile long-term defensible holds even in the midst of a general liquidation. Further, in an inflationary environment, holding cash is in itself risky and costly.Reversion to the mean is a reality. We mean no disrespect to ARK Invest and its management when we point out that on a five-year basis, the performance of the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), a flagship of the most prominent tech innovators and disruptors, has now fallen below the S&P 500.SPY, ARKK (Morgan Stanley Research)That chart is itself a perfect visual representation of mean reversion. However, it’s important to remember that the market is not the economy; and the economy is not the current stage of the economic cycle.Just as in the dot com bust - perhaps even more so - among the present-day stock market wreckage of decimated innovators, there remain companies that are at the forefront of the technological transformation of the world through networking, digitization, automation, and artificial intelligence.Many of these are components of ARK’s funds, and will become new Amazons and Googles in their respective industries - but not before they’ve endured more exile in the wilderness.As a quick note on crypto, we have watched the implosion of LUNA (LUNA-USD) and UST (UST-USD) with interest. To us, the takeaway is simple: the wild west days of crypto are ending, and the regulators are coming. As we have said for years, we believe this is a good thing. Regulators aren’t perfect, but they are necessary, and financial history shows the disasters that can unfold in their absence.Investment implicationsMultiple contraction alone on the basis of rising rates suggests a 3800 target for the S&P 500. However, should earnings disappoint or more signs of recession appear, a deeper market-wide decline would likely be in the cards. It is not yet time to sound the “all clear.”We could have a choppy or lower market with some rallies and declines until later this year, when the market has had a chance to see how much corporate profits will be impacted by the ongoing inflation, and which industries will be hurt and helped by inflation. It will gradually become clear whether we’re entering a multi-year bear market or simply enduring a deep correction within the market’s many-decade upward trajectory.The reason you have to maintain some optimism is that the movement of fear and negative sentiment from high to neutral can see markets rally a lot, long before sentiment is actually bullish. On the positive side, as we have noted, some real bargains are starting to appear and we are refining our buy list of companies that we believe have strong long-term prospects.However, the coming bull market, when it emerges, is unlikely to be a QE-driven bull market like what prevailed from 2009 to 2021. Because it will be based more on economic, revenue, and earnings growth, it will be choppier, more volatile, and more company-, sector-, and industry-specific than the previous bull market.We believe elements of the commodity complex, such as food and battery minerals, will be attractive. Future growth areas - all under the rubric of “growth at a reasonable price” - will include software, disruptive technologies, semiconductors, fintech and defi, and cybersecurity, among others.When investing in innovation, focus on influential, substantive innovations - innovations that most deeply affect standards of living, and are important to further real-world technological and economic progress. In short, not mere novelty items; this is where patience might be required.Moving forward, strong margins and balance sheets are likely to draw more attention than they did in an era where investors focused somewhat myopically on revenue growth.We believe high inflation in food, clothing, shelter, fuel, and other consumer necessities, combined with wages not keeping pace with inflation, will weaken discretionary consumer spending. Supply chains will remain a point of difficulty and concern, and the process of reshoring and the transition will continue for years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022726627,"gmtCreate":1653587351969,"gmtModify":1676535308940,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574915032906549","idStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022726627","repostId":"2238689001","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359874843,"gmtCreate":1616387760182,"gmtModify":1704793358556,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574915032906549","idStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359874843","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103756496","pubTimestamp":1616163949,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103756496?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103756496","media":"The Street","summary":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares?At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the s","content":"<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.</p>\n<p>Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Apple might be too hyped</b></p>\n<p>Goldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.</p>\n<p>For starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.</p>\n<p>Still on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.</p>\n<p>Also, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Lastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p>\n<p>In my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.</p>\n<p>I think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.</p>\n<p>I also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.</p>\n<p>Still, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>The most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/416292f8a70685b7612b592d29c72df6\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"454\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e715d243108042b76de007cc2748aed\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"520\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103756496","content_text":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.\nNow, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.\nApple might be too hyped\nGoldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.\nFor starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.\nStill on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.\nAlso, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:\n\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n\nLastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nIn my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.\nI think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.\nI also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.\nStill, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.\nTwitter speaks\nThe most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322054948,"gmtCreate":1615747825184,"gmtModify":1704786074930,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574915032906549","idStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322054948","repostId":"1164162618","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322054010,"gmtCreate":1615747796730,"gmtModify":1704786074768,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574915032906549","idStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon!","listText":"To the moon!","text":"To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322054010","repostId":"2118950916","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9025499920,"gmtCreate":1653712722360,"gmtModify":1676535332199,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574915032906549","authorIdStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025499920","repostId":"2238676317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022726558,"gmtCreate":1653587393974,"gmtModify":1676535308941,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574915032906549","authorIdStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022726558","repostId":"2238856736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238856736","pubTimestamp":1653579019,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238856736?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-26 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Market Playbook: Cash, Patience And Vigilance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238856736","media":"MoneyShow","summary":"SummaryOn the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&amp;P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages.</li><li>The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings.</li><li>As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.</li><li>After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caec9c220bfd36f42efd9859baf1d5a2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Adam Gault/OJO Images via Getty Images By Monty Guild</span></p><p>The damage to stocks is more evident internally than externally. On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&amp;P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages. A lot of pain has already happened.</p><p>There are some external factors at work here, and these may be ushering in some structural changes to global finance and economics. But still, what is happening right now is altogether simpler, and in a way, that’s comforting.</p><p>The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates - the “cost of money” - are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings (that is, the P/E ratio, or price-to-earnings multiple).</p><p>As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. We believe it will fall back towards historical norms; indeed, it already is doing so. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dfb7c5fd7b17a296ba44bd22eca7c5b\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>S&amp;P 500 NTM P/E (Author)</span></p><p>The central message to investors is this: what is happening is not outlandish; it is normal and expected. Indeed, it is actually creating opportunities to buy high-quality assets when their prices have declined to sane levels in accord with historical norms and prevailing industry conditions. Many high-quality assets will see their prices decline <i>below</i> those sane levels, presenting particularly appealing opportunities.</p><p>What’s happening is simply the result of a hangover. Extraordinary monetary policy made the financial system flush with liquidity, which was used to bid up stock prices - and in the last stages of this process, all sense of proportion, caution, and historical norms was cast aside.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/820584a96aa27afaa500c78ed0fd92b6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Money Supply YoY Growth (M2) (Morgan Stanley Research)</span></p><p>Now the punch bowl is being taken away from the party, sirens can be heard faintly in the background, and sobriety is beginning to set in. Note the word <i>beginning.</i> Our firm has an institutional memory of the inflation-driven bear market of the 1970s.</p><p>We believe that a market-level bottom still needs to be found - simply because more pain remains to be inflicted on some industries by rising rates if the Fed is even going to <i>approach</i>making good on its stated intention to deal with inflation. And while inflation is likely peaking now, we believe, as we have said for some time, that it will not return to the pre-pandemic 1-2% norm for many years.</p><p><b>A Bear Market Strategy</b></p><p>Patience is the watch word. The P/E chart above shows the extent to which valuations have already declined. However, it’s important to bear in mind that this is a market-wide chart, concealing wide variation among industries and individual companies about what constitutes an attractive valuation.</p><p>The sharp decline in market-level valuations points out a notable characteristic of contemporary markets: the prominence of passive investing, which now comprises most of market flows, means that in a period of liquidation such as we are now experiencing, good companies will get sold off indiscriminately with bad.</p><p>After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety, and we are already identifying them.</p><p><b>Innovation and Mean-Reversion</b></p><p>The current swoon may be setting up a once-in-a-decade opportunity. We have seen this movie before, and it is not fun to watch - but value is being created. We do not favor moving portfolios totally to cash, because we believe that there will still be tactical opportunities and worthwhile long-term defensible holds even in the midst of a general liquidation. Further, in an inflationary environment, holding cash is in itself risky and costly.</p><p>Reversion to the mean is a reality. We mean no disrespect to ARK Invest and its management when we point out that on a five-year basis, the performance of the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), a flagship of the most prominent tech innovators and disruptors, has now fallen below the S&amp;P 500.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa712dc92eeb3f8a56d1e7eb63ef2636\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY, ARKK (Morgan Stanley Research)</span></p><p>That chart is itself a perfect visual representation of mean reversion. However, it’s important to remember that the market is not the economy; and the economy is not the current stage of the economic cycle.</p><p>Just as in the dot com bust - perhaps even more so - among the present-day stock market wreckage of decimated innovators, there remain companies that are at the forefront of the technological transformation of the world through networking, digitization, automation, and artificial intelligence.</p><p>Many of these are components of ARK’s funds, and will become new Amazons and Googles in their respective industries - but not before they’ve endured more exile in the wilderness.</p><p>As a quick note on crypto, we have watched the implosion of LUNA (LUNA-USD) and UST (UST-USD) with interest. To us, the takeaway is simple: the wild west days of crypto are ending, and the regulators are coming. As we have said for years, we believe this is a good thing. Regulators aren’t perfect, but they are necessary, and financial history shows the disasters that can unfold in their absence.</p><p><b>Investment implications</b></p><p>Multiple contraction alone on the basis of rising rates suggests a 3800 target for the S&amp;P 500. However, should earnings disappoint or more signs of recession appear, a deeper market-wide decline would likely be in the cards. It is not yet time to sound the “all clear.”</p><p>We could have a choppy or lower market with some rallies and declines until later this year, when the market has had a chance to see how much corporate profits will be impacted by the ongoing inflation, and which industries will be hurt and helped by inflation. It will gradually become clear whether we’re entering a multi-year bear market or simply enduring a deep correction within the market’s many-decade upward trajectory.</p><p>The reason you have to maintain some optimism is that the movement of fear and negative sentiment from <i>high</i> to <i>neutral</i> can see markets rally a lot, long before sentiment is actually bullish. On the positive side, as we have noted, some real bargains are starting to appear and we are refining our buy list of companies that we believe have strong long-term prospects.</p><p>However, the coming bull market, when it emerges, is unlikely to be a QE-driven bull market like what prevailed from 2009 to 2021. Because it will be based more on economic, revenue, and earnings growth, it will be choppier, more volatile, and more company-, sector-, and industry-specific than the previous bull market.</p><p>We believe elements of the commodity complex, such as food and battery minerals, will be attractive. Future growth areas - all under the rubric of “growth at a reasonable price” - will include software, disruptive technologies, semiconductors, fintech and defi, and cybersecurity, among others.</p><p>When investing in innovation, focus on influential, substantive innovations - innovations that most deeply affect standards of living, and are important to further real-world technological and economic progress. In short, not mere novelty items; this is where patience might be required.</p><p>Moving forward, strong margins and balance sheets are likely to draw more attention than they did in an era where investors focused somewhat myopically on revenue growth.</p><p>We believe high inflation in food, clothing, shelter, fuel, and other consumer necessities, combined with wages not keeping pace with inflation, will weaken discretionary consumer spending. Supply chains will remain a point of difficulty and concern, and the process of reshoring and the transition will continue for years.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1653567943406","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Market Playbook: Cash, Patience And Vigilance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Market Playbook: Cash, Patience And Vigilance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-26 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-58807/bear-market-playbook-cash-patience-and-vigilance/?scode=044063><strong>MoneyShow</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOn the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-58807/bear-market-playbook-cash-patience-and-vigilance/?scode=044063\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-58807/bear-market-playbook-cash-patience-and-vigilance/?scode=044063","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238856736","content_text":"SummaryOn the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages.The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings.As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety.Adam Gault/OJO Images via Getty Images By Monty GuildThe damage to stocks is more evident internally than externally. On the surface, the correction has only started getting to the broad indices. Under the hood, the damage is deeper: 70% of S&P 500 stocks and 85% of NASDAQ stocks are below their 200-day moving averages. A lot of pain has already happened.There are some external factors at work here, and these may be ushering in some structural changes to global finance and economics. But still, what is happening right now is altogether simpler, and in a way, that’s comforting.The Fed is raising rates and reducing liquidity by allowing assets on its balance sheet to roll off. Interest rates - the “cost of money” - are the fundamental market-wide variable governing how much investors are willing to pay for a company on the basis of its earnings (that is, the P/E ratio, or price-to-earnings multiple).As interest rates rise, that number, for the stock market taken as a whole, will fall. We believe it will fall back towards historical norms; indeed, it already is doing so. Layer in the anticipation of decelerating earnings or a potential recession, and the price contraction is even sharper.S&P 500 NTM P/E (Author)The central message to investors is this: what is happening is not outlandish; it is normal and expected. Indeed, it is actually creating opportunities to buy high-quality assets when their prices have declined to sane levels in accord with historical norms and prevailing industry conditions. Many high-quality assets will see their prices decline below those sane levels, presenting particularly appealing opportunities.What’s happening is simply the result of a hangover. Extraordinary monetary policy made the financial system flush with liquidity, which was used to bid up stock prices - and in the last stages of this process, all sense of proportion, caution, and historical norms was cast aside.Money Supply YoY Growth (M2) (Morgan Stanley Research)Now the punch bowl is being taken away from the party, sirens can be heard faintly in the background, and sobriety is beginning to set in. Note the word beginning. Our firm has an institutional memory of the inflation-driven bear market of the 1970s.We believe that a market-level bottom still needs to be found - simply because more pain remains to be inflicted on some industries by rising rates if the Fed is even going to approachmaking good on its stated intention to deal with inflation. And while inflation is likely peaking now, we believe, as we have said for some time, that it will not return to the pre-pandemic 1-2% norm for many years.A Bear Market StrategyPatience is the watch word. The P/E chart above shows the extent to which valuations have already declined. However, it’s important to bear in mind that this is a market-wide chart, concealing wide variation among industries and individual companies about what constitutes an attractive valuation.The sharp decline in market-level valuations points out a notable characteristic of contemporary markets: the prominence of passive investing, which now comprises most of market flows, means that in a period of liquidation such as we are now experiencing, good companies will get sold off indiscriminately with bad.After the dust settles, Mr. Market will get sober and realize that certain companies were pushed down with the broad market to valuation levels too low for their fundamentals. Our job is to find these opportunities before Mr. Market’s moment of sobriety, and we are already identifying them.Innovation and Mean-ReversionThe current swoon may be setting up a once-in-a-decade opportunity. We have seen this movie before, and it is not fun to watch - but value is being created. We do not favor moving portfolios totally to cash, because we believe that there will still be tactical opportunities and worthwhile long-term defensible holds even in the midst of a general liquidation. Further, in an inflationary environment, holding cash is in itself risky and costly.Reversion to the mean is a reality. We mean no disrespect to ARK Invest and its management when we point out that on a five-year basis, the performance of the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), a flagship of the most prominent tech innovators and disruptors, has now fallen below the S&P 500.SPY, ARKK (Morgan Stanley Research)That chart is itself a perfect visual representation of mean reversion. However, it’s important to remember that the market is not the economy; and the economy is not the current stage of the economic cycle.Just as in the dot com bust - perhaps even more so - among the present-day stock market wreckage of decimated innovators, there remain companies that are at the forefront of the technological transformation of the world through networking, digitization, automation, and artificial intelligence.Many of these are components of ARK’s funds, and will become new Amazons and Googles in their respective industries - but not before they’ve endured more exile in the wilderness.As a quick note on crypto, we have watched the implosion of LUNA (LUNA-USD) and UST (UST-USD) with interest. To us, the takeaway is simple: the wild west days of crypto are ending, and the regulators are coming. As we have said for years, we believe this is a good thing. Regulators aren’t perfect, but they are necessary, and financial history shows the disasters that can unfold in their absence.Investment implicationsMultiple contraction alone on the basis of rising rates suggests a 3800 target for the S&P 500. However, should earnings disappoint or more signs of recession appear, a deeper market-wide decline would likely be in the cards. It is not yet time to sound the “all clear.”We could have a choppy or lower market with some rallies and declines until later this year, when the market has had a chance to see how much corporate profits will be impacted by the ongoing inflation, and which industries will be hurt and helped by inflation. It will gradually become clear whether we’re entering a multi-year bear market or simply enduring a deep correction within the market’s many-decade upward trajectory.The reason you have to maintain some optimism is that the movement of fear and negative sentiment from high to neutral can see markets rally a lot, long before sentiment is actually bullish. On the positive side, as we have noted, some real bargains are starting to appear and we are refining our buy list of companies that we believe have strong long-term prospects.However, the coming bull market, when it emerges, is unlikely to be a QE-driven bull market like what prevailed from 2009 to 2021. Because it will be based more on economic, revenue, and earnings growth, it will be choppier, more volatile, and more company-, sector-, and industry-specific than the previous bull market.We believe elements of the commodity complex, such as food and battery minerals, will be attractive. Future growth areas - all under the rubric of “growth at a reasonable price” - will include software, disruptive technologies, semiconductors, fintech and defi, and cybersecurity, among others.When investing in innovation, focus on influential, substantive innovations - innovations that most deeply affect standards of living, and are important to further real-world technological and economic progress. In short, not mere novelty items; this is where patience might be required.Moving forward, strong margins and balance sheets are likely to draw more attention than they did in an era where investors focused somewhat myopically on revenue growth.We believe high inflation in food, clothing, shelter, fuel, and other consumer necessities, combined with wages not keeping pace with inflation, will weaken discretionary consumer spending. Supply chains will remain a point of difficulty and concern, and the process of reshoring and the transition will continue for years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022726627,"gmtCreate":1653587351969,"gmtModify":1676535308940,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574915032906549","authorIdStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022726627","repostId":"2238689001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238689001","pubTimestamp":1653571115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238689001?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-26 21:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Is Getting Into Garbage in Partnership With Rubicon Technologies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238689001","media":"Barrons","summary":"The data analytics giant Palantir Technologies is moving into crunching numbers on trash.Palantir (t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The data analytics giant Palantir Technologies is moving into crunching numbers on trash.</p><p>Palantir (ticker: PLTR) announced a partnership Thursday with Rubicon Technologies, a relatively new software and solutions provider to the waste and recycling industry.</p><p>Rubicon wants to be the operating system for the waste industry, providing haulers with software and connectivity solutions to help make them more efficient, as well as data-collection solutions for cities and companies generating garbage.</p><p>Rubicon believes the waste industry has too much, well, waste and is ripe for disruption. The relationship with Palantir enhances Rubicon&#39;s data analytics capabilities, which eventually will help save waste generators and haulers money, it said. Palantir will also help Rubicon commercialize some of its products.</p><p>&#34;Data has been at the center of the Rubicon story since our company&#39;s founding, and the application of data to business processes is what has enabled us to consistently drive environmental innovation in the waste and recycling category,&#34; said Rubicon CEO Nate Morris in the companies&#39; news release.</p><p>Rubicon isn&#39;t a public company yet. It is merging with the special-purpose acquisition company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FOUN\">Founder SPAC</a> (FOUN) to raise additional capital. When the merger is complete, the combined company will trade under the stock symbol &#34;RBT.&#34; The deal will raise about $350 million in cash for Rubicon.</p><p>The transaction values Rubicon stock at about $2 billion based on about 199 million shares outstanding when the deal closes. That is expected to happen in the second quarter of 2022 .</p><p>Since the merger was announced in mid-December, Founder stock, which will become Rubicon, is up about 1%. That isn&#39;t bad, given that the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down about 15% and 25%, respectively, over the same span. The Defiance Next Gen SPAC Derived ETF has fallen 32%.</p><p>Founder stock may have held up better than other stocks and SPAC shares because Rubicon has sales and is more modestly valued than other software companies. The company generated $583 million in 2021 and expects to generate about $736 million in 2022. That&#39;s about 26% year over year growth. The company generates gross profits, but not operating profit just yet.</p><p>Shares of Founder trade for, very roughly, three times Rubicon&#39;s sales. Software companies in the S&amp;P 500 trade for closer to nine times sales, although those in the market benchmark have a better mix of growth and profit margins.</p><p>The software components of the S&amp;P 500 have been growing sales at roughly 14% a year on average for the past three years. Operating profit margins are about 34% for the group. Of course, software companies in the S&amp;P 500 are mature and include companies such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a> that generate tens of billions in annual sales.</p><p>The Palantir relationship is designed to enhance Rubicon&#39;s offerings. That could mean even faster sales growth for investors.</p><p>Coming into Wednesday trading, Palantir stock was off about 56% year to date.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Is Getting Into Garbage in Partnership With Rubicon Technologies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Is Getting Into Garbage in Partnership With Rubicon Technologies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-26 21:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-rubicon-waste-data-analytics-51653568935?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The data analytics giant Palantir Technologies is moving into crunching numbers on trash.Palantir (ticker: PLTR) announced a partnership Thursday with Rubicon Technologies, a relatively new software ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-rubicon-waste-data-analytics-51653568935?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-rubicon-waste-data-analytics-51653568935?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238689001","content_text":"The data analytics giant Palantir Technologies is moving into crunching numbers on trash.Palantir (ticker: PLTR) announced a partnership Thursday with Rubicon Technologies, a relatively new software and solutions provider to the waste and recycling industry.Rubicon wants to be the operating system for the waste industry, providing haulers with software and connectivity solutions to help make them more efficient, as well as data-collection solutions for cities and companies generating garbage.Rubicon believes the waste industry has too much, well, waste and is ripe for disruption. The relationship with Palantir enhances Rubicon's data analytics capabilities, which eventually will help save waste generators and haulers money, it said. Palantir will also help Rubicon commercialize some of its products.\"Data has been at the center of the Rubicon story since our company's founding, and the application of data to business processes is what has enabled us to consistently drive environmental innovation in the waste and recycling category,\" said Rubicon CEO Nate Morris in the companies' news release.Rubicon isn't a public company yet. It is merging with the special-purpose acquisition company Founder SPAC (FOUN) to raise additional capital. When the merger is complete, the combined company will trade under the stock symbol \"RBT.\" The deal will raise about $350 million in cash for Rubicon.The transaction values Rubicon stock at about $2 billion based on about 199 million shares outstanding when the deal closes. That is expected to happen in the second quarter of 2022 .Since the merger was announced in mid-December, Founder stock, which will become Rubicon, is up about 1%. That isn't bad, given that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down about 15% and 25%, respectively, over the same span. The Defiance Next Gen SPAC Derived ETF has fallen 32%.Founder stock may have held up better than other stocks and SPAC shares because Rubicon has sales and is more modestly valued than other software companies. The company generated $583 million in 2021 and expects to generate about $736 million in 2022. That's about 26% year over year growth. The company generates gross profits, but not operating profit just yet.Shares of Founder trade for, very roughly, three times Rubicon's sales. Software companies in the S&P 500 trade for closer to nine times sales, although those in the market benchmark have a better mix of growth and profit margins.The software components of the S&P 500 have been growing sales at roughly 14% a year on average for the past three years. Operating profit margins are about 34% for the group. Of course, software companies in the S&P 500 are mature and include companies such as Salesforce that generate tens of billions in annual sales.The Palantir relationship is designed to enhance Rubicon's offerings. That could mean even faster sales growth for investors.Coming into Wednesday trading, Palantir stock was off about 56% year to date.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359874843,"gmtCreate":1616387760182,"gmtModify":1704793358556,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574915032906549","authorIdStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359874843","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103756496","pubTimestamp":1616163949,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103756496?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103756496","media":"The Street","summary":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares?At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the s","content":"<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.</p>\n<p>Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Apple might be too hyped</b></p>\n<p>Goldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.</p>\n<p>For starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.</p>\n<p>Still on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.</p>\n<p>Also, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Lastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p>\n<p>In my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.</p>\n<p>I think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.</p>\n<p>I also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.</p>\n<p>Still, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>The most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/416292f8a70685b7612b592d29c72df6\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"454\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e715d243108042b76de007cc2748aed\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"520\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103756496","content_text":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.\nNow, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.\nApple might be too hyped\nGoldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.\nFor starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.\nStill on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.\nAlso, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:\n\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n\nLastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nIn my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.\nI think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.\nI also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.\nStill, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.\nTwitter speaks\nThe most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322054948,"gmtCreate":1615747825184,"gmtModify":1704786074930,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574915032906549","authorIdStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322054948","repostId":"1164162618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164162618","pubTimestamp":1615552572,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164162618?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 20:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A stunning fall and a recovery: How the stock market has evolved one year since Covid hit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164162618","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nA year after the pandemic shut down the economy, stocks have gained 79% from the lows an","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nA year after the pandemic shut down the economy, stocks have gained 79% from the lows and the market is in a solid position to continue to rally. It’s now being led by sectors that had ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/a-stunning-fall-and-a-recovery-how-the-stock-market-has-evolved-one-year-since-covid-hit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A stunning fall and a recovery: How the stock market has evolved one year since Covid hit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA stunning fall and a recovery: How the stock market has evolved one year since Covid hit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-12 20:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/a-stunning-fall-and-a-recovery-how-the-stock-market-has-evolved-one-year-since-covid-hit.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nA year after the pandemic shut down the economy, stocks have gained 79% from the lows and the market is in a solid position to continue to rally. It’s now being led by sectors that had ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/a-stunning-fall-and-a-recovery-how-the-stock-market-has-evolved-one-year-since-covid-hit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/a-stunning-fall-and-a-recovery-how-the-stock-market-has-evolved-one-year-since-covid-hit.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1164162618","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nA year after the pandemic shut down the economy, stocks have gained 79% from the lows and the market is in a solid position to continue to rally. It’s now being led by sectors that had been very unlikely leaders — like energy and industrials.\nAs the world changed, so did the market. A new group of younger investors became much more active in individual stocks and options.\nStrategists say the market is now subject to a much more volatile economy than it has been used to, and tech could continue to lag some of the more cyclical stocks.\n\nA year after the pandemic forced the nation into a shutdown, the stock market has been overhauled in ways that Wall Street never imagined.\nLast March, stocks plunged as the world faced the frightening spread of a virus many had thought would never make its way to the United States. The S&P 500 lost more than 15% in a searing decline on March 11 and 12. The index plummeted more than 30% by March 23.\nPerhaps even more surprising than the fall was the market rebound that followed, powered by the twin booster engines of monetary and fiscal policy, including a rollout of programs from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 is up nearly 80% from the low that March and just hit a fresh record on Thursday.\n“The policy response was meaningful and significant, and as a result prevented what could have been a far worse outcome,” said Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citi.\nThe virus was a great equalizer. Much of the country was learning to work and attend school from home. Meanwhile, restaurants, gyms and other places where people gathered were closed or changed dramatically.\nBut America adapted, and so did investors.\nThey ran up tech stocks that benefitted from a homebound populace, including Netflix,Zoom,Amazon and Peloton.\n\nWhen the economy began to reopen, money moved into recovery-themed stocks, including energy, industrials, materials and financials. These sectors now lead the market, displacing high-flying tech shares.\nAfter years of a steadily growing economy, the pandemic resulted in a shocking decline in gross domestic product.A sharp rebound followed, aided by easy monetary policy and blasts of fiscal spending.\nThe $1.9 trillion stimulus package,signed into law by President Joe Biden on Thursday, will be rolling out amid an uneven recovery. The service sector had never before led the economy into recession; it is the last to come back. About 10 million people are still unemployed.\n“Economic volatility is here to stay...and that is different than the last 30 years,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG.\n“There’s no escaping that when you think about the combination of [GDP] being down 31% for one quarter and up 33% in the next quarter,” he said.\n“Applying record stimulus, the equivalent of about 36.2% of GDP in the subsequent year...it’s just going to be an environment where the quarter-to-quarter swings are going to be much greater than they were,” Emanuel added.\nNew investors\nDuring the past year, a new cohort of retail investors — many using no-fee online trading platforms —became an important part of the market.\nGoldman Sachs expects households to be the biggest source of demand for stocks this year, with $350 billion to flow into the market, compared to $300 billion from corporations.\n“It’s newer and younger investors who are embracing speculation like never before, as evidenced by call options volumes that are multiples of prior years’ record volumes,” said Emanuel of BTIG.\nInvestors are also using record amounts of margin debt to finance their investments.\nFor now, the most speculative activity is focused on meme stocks, Emanuel said.\n\nGameStop is the poster child for this volatility, a stock that was given up for dead by many but embraced by a group of retail investors.\nInstead of calling their brokers, these traders turned to to the internet. WallStreetBets, a forum on Reddit, became a powerful force in market activity.\n“The question is will it end up like it did at the end of the rally in 1999 and 2000,” said Emanuel of BTIG. “Could it end up in a very strong parabolic-like surge across the entire stock market?”\nCiti’s Levkovich said investors tend to sell momentum as much as they buy momentum.\n“The moves we’ve seen in stock prices, where they can double or triple in a day,” he said. “The incredible issuance of SPACs, the crypto stuff — a lot of these are signs of too much liquidity generating speculative behavior.”\nNonetheless, the market rewards have been huge.Tesla, for instance, is up 630% since March 23, while Etsy is up more than 520%,Freeport-McMoRan 540% and L Brands is up 500%.\nStocks have also not really been challenged by bonds for investment dollars, even with the recent rise in yields.\n“Why as a 20- or 30-year-old would you want to buy a fixed income investment if the expectation for inflation is 2% and the Fed is telling you, it’s not going to stop with liquidity until inflation is sustainably above 2%,” said Emanuel of BTIG. “Because real yields are so low, it continues to be a good time for equity investment.”\nThe benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has moved higher lately, as the promise of the latest fiscal stimulus package has boosted the outlook for growth.\nEconomists expect the economy could grow by 6% this year. The 10-year yield, which moves opposite price, was at about 1.53% Thursday, well off its year low of 0.50% but below its recent high of 1.61%.\nMarket now in mid-cycle\nSam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, expects the market to move higher this year.\nHe also says it’s due for a bigger correction than the market sell-offs that took place from mid-February to last week. In that period, the S&P 500 at the time sold off close to 6%, while the Nasdaq fell more than 10%.\n“When I look at all the historical facts that say stocks are overpriced, it gets me scared,” said Stovall. “The S&P market cap is 140% of nominal GDP and the S&P average is 62%.”\nThe market has also had only one sizeable correction since it took off in March.\n“We are more than 20% above where we were the last time we had a meaningful decline, which ended on Sept. 23,” Stovall said.\nThe market has now moved to a mid-cycle period, “after a fast and furious ‘Recovery’ regime,” Bank of America found. Strategists at the firm said that should mean a period of continued gains.\nIn this type of market environment, “typically capex outpaces consumption, rates rise and ‘good inflation’ picks up,” Bank of America said, referring to capital expenditures.\nThis phase could come to an end when “good” inflation turns into “bad” inflation, with prices rising too much and hurting margins. Bank of America’s strategists say this period could also last longer than the average nine months.\nCyclicals and value should lead\nCyclicals and value stocks are expected to continue to outperform. Wall Street strategists have a median target of 4,100 on the S&P 500 for year-end.\nCiti’s Levkovich said he does not expect the market to go much further than it already has this year. He expects the S&P 500 to trade between 3,600 and 4,000 — very close to where it is now — and end the year at 3,800, the lowest forecast in CNBC’s Strategist Survey.\nOn Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at 3,939.\n“People are positioned very bullishly, and that prevents downside risk to the market,” Levkovich said. But the market can also not gain the way it did when tech and growth were the leaders.\n\nWhen the technology and internet growth names were still the leaders, a handful of stocks were responsible for the bulk of the index gains. Some of those names, like Apple and Amazon,have suffered double-digit declines.\nThe energy and materials sectors have doubled in price since last March, while industrials and financials are up about 95%. Tech is up about 83%. Meanwhile, communications services, including internet names, are up about 72%.\n\n“If you lose the leadership of the big dogs, it’s going to hold back the market, even if the other guys are going up,” Levkovich of Citi said. “They’re not as big as the huskies...the valuations are different if you lose some of the big tech names.”\nLater in the year, the market could struggle with cyclicals and value stocks as leaders, Levkovich said.\n“We might be in a position where later in the year we could see some of the expectations around value and cyclicals disappoint, and then I think you see the rotation back to growth,” he said.\nJust as the course of the economy will be decided by the course of the virus and the success of the vaccines, the stock market will be driven by the same factors.\n“Everybody thinks the world will be a lot better in the second half,” Levkovich said. “If there are any hiccups — let’s say it’s a Covid outbreak where we didn’t contain it enough — that would be a disappointment.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322054010,"gmtCreate":1615747796730,"gmtModify":1704786074768,"author":{"id":"3574915032906549","authorId":"3574915032906549","name":"Drannek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43a109f2acd3580907a53160ba1f98f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574915032906549","authorIdStr":"3574915032906549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon!","listText":"To the moon!","text":"To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322054010","repostId":"2118950916","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118950916","pubTimestamp":1615551877,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118950916?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 20:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget the Reddit Hype, Here Are 3 Very Good Reasons Why GameStop Can Win","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118950916","media":"Motley Foo","summary":"Yet investors still need to be grounded in the reality of value.","content":"<p>Yet investors still need to be grounded in the reality of value.</p>\n<p>Reddit stock traders hype any move&nbsp;<b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME) makes, regardless of whether it actually means anything. The stock simply ticking higher is seen as a sign a moonshot is coming and pointing out the lack of a fundamental basis for the increase often invites condemnation.</p>\n<p>But there are some very good reasons why GameStop's business can succeed, so forget what Reddit is saying and instead look at why it can win.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f1c9a28fbb4cb73ccf15b9b6e26c74\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p><b>The new e-commerce strategy is a good start</b></p>\n<p>Even before GameStop announced it was pushing forward with a new e-commerce strategy, there was good reason to believe the video game retailer could succeed, but this online initiative gives it a good start.</p>\n<p>As activist investor and board member Ryan Cohen has detailed, GameStop has an invaluable brand in the gaming community, and for all its many faults, its business is synonymous with the industry.</p>\n<p>That gives it a unique foundation to build upon, and while it shouldn't abandon its physical retail roots, it also needs to focus on where gaming is heading. That's online and digital, so becoming the go-to e-commerce destination is essential. GameStop gave a hint of the potential during the pandemic when online sales soared; now it needs to transition more fully into the&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;of gaming.</p>\n<p>Putting Cohen and two other activist investors in charge of this initiative shows GameStop is serious about the effort, and though we need to see what actually develops, the creation of a committee is a good omen.</p>\n<p><b>Still a destination where gamers can go</b></p>\n<p>Cohen has also rightly pointed out GameStop just has too many stores and it needs to focus on the best-performing locations.</p>\n<p>Yet it needs to do more than just be some cramped quarters and offer up a more fun, inviting atmosphere. The video game console upgrade cycle showed how the retailer can straddle both the digital and the physical worlds, and also be a place where gamers want to go to look for physical media. There is still a huge percentage of gamers who want to hold that game in their hands, and GameStop can't abandon them.</p>\n<p>The resale trade has long been its bread and butter for revenue, and that needs to remain a part of the future, but also its stores need to be where gamers can try out the next generation of games and equipment. Try in store, buy online could be a very successful formula for selling virtual reality-based games and gear, for example. Trying out expensive new headsets and controllers beforehand can provide consumers with the confidence to make the purchase.</p>\n<p><b>Don't forget new growth opportunities</b></p>\n<p>GameStop was already heading in this direction before the activist investors targeted the company, but the retailer's dive into the growing phenomenon of esports signals a new growth opportunity for its business.</p>\n<p>Its stores were already a place where gamers went to have community and social interaction, and the whole esports industry is all about that on steroids. A GameStop store that provides an immersive experience could also be the go-to destination for participants.</p>\n<p>It signed a bunch of partnerships before the pandemic struck and those could be put to good use as the economy reopens and normalcy returns.</p>\n<p>Recently, short-seller-turned-good-news-broker Citron Research suggested GameStop acquire&nbsp;<b>Esports Entertainment Group</b> (NASDAQ:GMBL), which would allow the retailer to cash in on both esports and the growing opportunity in sports betting. Whether Esports Entertainment is the right vehicle is open for debate, but it is a channel GameStop really ought to consider.</p>\n<p><b>But also don't forget about value</b></p>\n<p>All of this provides a good argument for why GameStop may have walked away from bankruptcy, and worse, irrelevance. It shows the video game retailer could be a good business to own, but not at any price, and not at these levels.</p>\n<p>Shares of the video game retailer are still sky-high from the short squeeze rally that sent the stock soaring in January and are nearly 1,000% higher than where they started the year. That's not based on reality or the company's fundamentals, but on wishful thinking and a desire to keep the party going.</p>\n<p>GameStop's stock trades at more than three times its sales, 52 times its book value, nearly 40 times the cash it has on hand, and 119 times the free cash flow it produces. Those are inflated valuations, not a stock priced to buy.</p>\n<p>So although GameStop is a business that can win, its stock is not, at least not yet, and serious investors should wait for the inevitable pull of gravity before buying in.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget the Reddit Hype, Here Are 3 Very Good Reasons Why GameStop Can Win</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget the Reddit Hype, Here Are 3 Very Good Reasons Why GameStop Can Win\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-12 20:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/12/forget-the-reddit-hype-here-are-3-very-good-reason/><strong>Motley Foo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yet investors still need to be grounded in the reality of value.\nReddit stock traders hype any move GameStop (NYSE:GME) makes, regardless of whether it actually means anything. The stock simply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/12/forget-the-reddit-hype-here-are-3-very-good-reason/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GMBL":"电子竞技娱乐","GME":"游戏驿站","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/12/forget-the-reddit-hype-here-are-3-very-good-reason/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118950916","content_text":"Yet investors still need to be grounded in the reality of value.\nReddit stock traders hype any move GameStop (NYSE:GME) makes, regardless of whether it actually means anything. The stock simply ticking higher is seen as a sign a moonshot is coming and pointing out the lack of a fundamental basis for the increase often invites condemnation.\nBut there are some very good reasons why GameStop's business can succeed, so forget what Reddit is saying and instead look at why it can win.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nThe new e-commerce strategy is a good start\nEven before GameStop announced it was pushing forward with a new e-commerce strategy, there was good reason to believe the video game retailer could succeed, but this online initiative gives it a good start.\nAs activist investor and board member Ryan Cohen has detailed, GameStop has an invaluable brand in the gaming community, and for all its many faults, its business is synonymous with the industry.\nThat gives it a unique foundation to build upon, and while it shouldn't abandon its physical retail roots, it also needs to focus on where gaming is heading. That's online and digital, so becoming the go-to e-commerce destination is essential. GameStop gave a hint of the potential during the pandemic when online sales soared; now it needs to transition more fully into the Amazon of gaming.\nPutting Cohen and two other activist investors in charge of this initiative shows GameStop is serious about the effort, and though we need to see what actually develops, the creation of a committee is a good omen.\nStill a destination where gamers can go\nCohen has also rightly pointed out GameStop just has too many stores and it needs to focus on the best-performing locations.\nYet it needs to do more than just be some cramped quarters and offer up a more fun, inviting atmosphere. The video game console upgrade cycle showed how the retailer can straddle both the digital and the physical worlds, and also be a place where gamers want to go to look for physical media. There is still a huge percentage of gamers who want to hold that game in their hands, and GameStop can't abandon them.\nThe resale trade has long been its bread and butter for revenue, and that needs to remain a part of the future, but also its stores need to be where gamers can try out the next generation of games and equipment. Try in store, buy online could be a very successful formula for selling virtual reality-based games and gear, for example. Trying out expensive new headsets and controllers beforehand can provide consumers with the confidence to make the purchase.\nDon't forget new growth opportunities\nGameStop was already heading in this direction before the activist investors targeted the company, but the retailer's dive into the growing phenomenon of esports signals a new growth opportunity for its business.\nIts stores were already a place where gamers went to have community and social interaction, and the whole esports industry is all about that on steroids. A GameStop store that provides an immersive experience could also be the go-to destination for participants.\nIt signed a bunch of partnerships before the pandemic struck and those could be put to good use as the economy reopens and normalcy returns.\nRecently, short-seller-turned-good-news-broker Citron Research suggested GameStop acquire Esports Entertainment Group (NASDAQ:GMBL), which would allow the retailer to cash in on both esports and the growing opportunity in sports betting. Whether Esports Entertainment is the right vehicle is open for debate, but it is a channel GameStop really ought to consider.\nBut also don't forget about value\nAll of this provides a good argument for why GameStop may have walked away from bankruptcy, and worse, irrelevance. It shows the video game retailer could be a good business to own, but not at any price, and not at these levels.\nShares of the video game retailer are still sky-high from the short squeeze rally that sent the stock soaring in January and are nearly 1,000% higher than where they started the year. That's not based on reality or the company's fundamentals, but on wishful thinking and a desire to keep the party going.\nGameStop's stock trades at more than three times its sales, 52 times its book value, nearly 40 times the cash it has on hand, and 119 times the free cash flow it produces. Those are inflated valuations, not a stock priced to buy.\nSo although GameStop is a business that can win, its stock is not, at least not yet, and serious investors should wait for the inevitable pull of gravity before buying in.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}