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2021-06-17
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Hawkish Fed fuels dollar, leaves stocks and bonds bruised
llWindyll
2021-02-10
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Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?
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2021-02-10
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Why Large-Cap Value Stocks Could Be Long-Term Winners
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World equities were heading for their biggest fall in weeks on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve startled investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.</p>\n<p>The dollar added to what was the strongest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day rise in 15 months after the Fed meeting, while Europe's government borrowing costs moved higher after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by their most since early March.</p>\n<p>Europe's STOXX 600 snapped a 9-day winning streak - its longest since 2017 - with a 0.3% early dip. Asia-Pacific shares were closing down around 0.7% , while Wall Street futures pointed to a modest 0.4% drop.</p>\n<p>The Fed forecasts showed 13 of the 18 person policy board saw rates rising in 2023 versus only six previously, while seven tipped a first move in 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The new Fed 'dot plot' indicating that the median FOMC member now forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2023, versus none in the March iteration, represented the hawkish surprise out of the June Fed meeting,\" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.</p>\n<p>While these 'dot plots' are not commitments and have a poor track record of predicting rates, the sudden shift was a shock.</p>\n<p>The Fed also signalled it would now be considering whether to 'taper' its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase programme meeting by meeting and downgraded the risk from the pandemic given progress with vaccinations.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan analysts noted Fed Chair Jerome Powell had not been as aggressive in his media conference. He had described it as a \"talking about talking about meeting,\" a glib reference to his protestations earlier this year that the Fed was not even \"talking about talking about\" tighter policy.</p>\n<p>\"It appears that faster progress toward reopening and higher inflation surprises revealed some hawks on the FOMC, but we suspect that leadership is predominantly anchored at zero or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hike in 2023,\" JPMorgan said, sticking with a prediction for tapering to start early next year.</p>\n<p>Markets moved quickly to price in the risk of earlier action and Fed fund futures shifted to imply a first hike by the end of 2022. Yields on 10-year bonds shot up almost nine basis points to 1.57%.</p>\n<p>ALL RISE</p>\n<p>The dollar also broke out of recent tight ranges. It had risen 0.9% on Wednesday against a basket of currencies to 91.387</p>\n<p>for its biggest gain since March last year and set a two-month high in early European trading.</p>\n<p>Powell's hawkish turn prompted both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to abandon their calls that the U.S. currency would weaken against the euro, although others were not so sure.</p>\n<p>Agnès Belaisch, Chief European Strategist of the Barings Investment Institute, said the fact that the Fed was not going to lift rates any time soon was good for world growth and that FX markets would therefore get over Wednesday's shift.</p>\n<p>\"He (Powell) said they wouldn't do anything for the next two years, so it's a shock but wrapped in good news,\" Belaisch said.</p>\n<p>\"I think he gave the markets the all-clear to rally\".</p>\n<p>The euro slipped back towards $1.1950 in the European session and the dollar was just shy of its 2021 high against the yen, last buying 110.55 yen .</p>\n<p>The kiwi dollar clawed back about half of its overnight losses after first-quarter growth figures blew past forecasts, and while the Aussie dollar and British pound stabilised emerging market currencies weakened.</p>\n<p>Ahead for currency markets is an interest rate decision from Turkey's central bank due at 1100 GMT, which has the lira on edge . Norway's central bank kept its interest rates at zero, but said a hike will most likely follow in September.</p>\n<p>Elsewhere, the rise in bond yields and the dollar were a double blow for non-yielding gold which was down at $1,810 an ounce after sliding 2.5% overnight.</p>\n<p>Oil prices were insulated by the prospect of stronger world demand and still tight supply, with Brent reaching its highest since April 2019 before running into profit taking and headwinds from the sharply higher dollar.</p>\n<p>Brent was last off 0.3% at $74.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.2% as well to trade at $71.98.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Fed fuels dollar, leaves stocks and bonds bruised</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Fed fuels dollar, leaves stocks and bonds bruised\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>* Fed projects two rate rises in 2023, talks tapering</p>\n<p>* Markets imply risk of first hike by end of 2022</p>\n<p>* Bonds sell off hard, dollar surges, gold slides</p>\n<p>* Graphic: Global asset performance</p>\n<p>* Graphic: World FX rates</p>\n<p>LONDON/SYDNEY, June 17 (Reuters) - World equities were heading for their biggest fall in weeks on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve startled investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.</p>\n<p>The dollar added to what was the strongest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day rise in 15 months after the Fed meeting, while Europe's government borrowing costs moved higher after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by their most since early March.</p>\n<p>Europe's STOXX 600 snapped a 9-day winning streak - its longest since 2017 - with a 0.3% early dip. Asia-Pacific shares were closing down around 0.7% , while Wall Street futures pointed to a modest 0.4% drop.</p>\n<p>The Fed forecasts showed 13 of the 18 person policy board saw rates rising in 2023 versus only six previously, while seven tipped a first move in 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The new Fed 'dot plot' indicating that the median FOMC member now forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2023, versus none in the March iteration, represented the hawkish surprise out of the June Fed meeting,\" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.</p>\n<p>While these 'dot plots' are not commitments and have a poor track record of predicting rates, the sudden shift was a shock.</p>\n<p>The Fed also signalled it would now be considering whether to 'taper' its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase programme meeting by meeting and downgraded the risk from the pandemic given progress with vaccinations.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan analysts noted Fed Chair Jerome Powell had not been as aggressive in his media conference. He had described it as a \"talking about talking about meeting,\" a glib reference to his protestations earlier this year that the Fed was not even \"talking about talking about\" tighter policy.</p>\n<p>\"It appears that faster progress toward reopening and higher inflation surprises revealed some hawks on the FOMC, but we suspect that leadership is predominantly anchored at zero or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hike in 2023,\" JPMorgan said, sticking with a prediction for tapering to start early next year.</p>\n<p>Markets moved quickly to price in the risk of earlier action and Fed fund futures shifted to imply a first hike by the end of 2022. Yields on 10-year bonds shot up almost nine basis points to 1.57%.</p>\n<p>ALL RISE</p>\n<p>The dollar also broke out of recent tight ranges. It had risen 0.9% on Wednesday against a basket of currencies to 91.387</p>\n<p>for its biggest gain since March last year and set a two-month high in early European trading.</p>\n<p>Powell's hawkish turn prompted both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to abandon their calls that the U.S. currency would weaken against the euro, although others were not so sure.</p>\n<p>Agnès Belaisch, Chief European Strategist of the Barings Investment Institute, said the fact that the Fed was not going to lift rates any time soon was good for world growth and that FX markets would therefore get over Wednesday's shift.</p>\n<p>\"He (Powell) said they wouldn't do anything for the next two years, so it's a shock but wrapped in good news,\" Belaisch said.</p>\n<p>\"I think he gave the markets the all-clear to rally\".</p>\n<p>The euro slipped back towards $1.1950 in the European session and the dollar was just shy of its 2021 high against the yen, last buying 110.55 yen .</p>\n<p>The kiwi dollar clawed back about half of its overnight losses after first-quarter growth figures blew past forecasts, and while the Aussie dollar and British pound stabilised emerging market currencies weakened.</p>\n<p>Ahead for currency markets is an interest rate decision from Turkey's central bank due at 1100 GMT, which has the lira on edge . Norway's central bank kept its interest rates at zero, but said a hike will most likely follow in September.</p>\n<p>Elsewhere, the rise in bond yields and the dollar were a double blow for non-yielding gold which was down at $1,810 an ounce after sliding 2.5% overnight.</p>\n<p>Oil prices were insulated by the prospect of stronger world demand and still tight supply, with Brent reaching its highest since April 2019 before running into profit taking and headwinds from the sharply higher dollar.</p>\n<p>Brent was last off 0.3% at $74.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.2% as well to trade at $71.98.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144710250","content_text":"* Fed projects two rate rises in 2023, talks tapering\n* Markets imply risk of first hike by end of 2022\n* Bonds sell off hard, dollar surges, gold slides\n* Graphic: Global asset performance\n* Graphic: World FX rates\nLONDON/SYDNEY, June 17 (Reuters) - World equities were heading for their biggest fall in weeks on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve startled investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.\nThe dollar added to what was the strongest one-day rise in 15 months after the Fed meeting, while Europe's government borrowing costs moved higher after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by their most since early March.\nEurope's STOXX 600 snapped a 9-day winning streak - its longest since 2017 - with a 0.3% early dip. Asia-Pacific shares were closing down around 0.7% , while Wall Street futures pointed to a modest 0.4% drop.\nThe Fed forecasts showed 13 of the 18 person policy board saw rates rising in 2023 versus only six previously, while seven tipped a first move in 2022.\n\"The new Fed 'dot plot' indicating that the median FOMC member now forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2023, versus none in the March iteration, represented the hawkish surprise out of the June Fed meeting,\" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.\nWhile these 'dot plots' are not commitments and have a poor track record of predicting rates, the sudden shift was a shock.\nThe Fed also signalled it would now be considering whether to 'taper' its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase programme meeting by meeting and downgraded the risk from the pandemic given progress with vaccinations.\nJPMorgan analysts noted Fed Chair Jerome Powell had not been as aggressive in his media conference. He had described it as a \"talking about talking about meeting,\" a glib reference to his protestations earlier this year that the Fed was not even \"talking about talking about\" tighter policy.\n\"It appears that faster progress toward reopening and higher inflation surprises revealed some hawks on the FOMC, but we suspect that leadership is predominantly anchored at zero or one hike in 2023,\" JPMorgan said, sticking with a prediction for tapering to start early next year.\nMarkets moved quickly to price in the risk of earlier action and Fed fund futures shifted to imply a first hike by the end of 2022. Yields on 10-year bonds shot up almost nine basis points to 1.57%.\nALL RISE\nThe dollar also broke out of recent tight ranges. It had risen 0.9% on Wednesday against a basket of currencies to 91.387\nfor its biggest gain since March last year and set a two-month high in early European trading.\nPowell's hawkish turn prompted both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to abandon their calls that the U.S. currency would weaken against the euro, although others were not so sure.\nAgnès Belaisch, Chief European Strategist of the Barings Investment Institute, said the fact that the Fed was not going to lift rates any time soon was good for world growth and that FX markets would therefore get over Wednesday's shift.\n\"He (Powell) said they wouldn't do anything for the next two years, so it's a shock but wrapped in good news,\" Belaisch said.\n\"I think he gave the markets the all-clear to rally\".\nThe euro slipped back towards $1.1950 in the European session and the dollar was just shy of its 2021 high against the yen, last buying 110.55 yen .\nThe kiwi dollar clawed back about half of its overnight losses after first-quarter growth figures blew past forecasts, and while the Aussie dollar and British pound stabilised emerging market currencies weakened.\nAhead for currency markets is an interest rate decision from Turkey's central bank due at 1100 GMT, which has the lira on edge . Norway's central bank kept its interest rates at zero, but said a hike will most likely follow in September.\nElsewhere, the rise in bond yields and the dollar were a double blow for non-yielding gold which was down at $1,810 an ounce after sliding 2.5% overnight.\nOil prices were insulated by the prospect of stronger world demand and still tight supply, with Brent reaching its highest since April 2019 before running into profit taking and headwinds from the sharply higher dollar.\nBrent was last off 0.3% at $74.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.2% as well to trade at $71.98.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381190292,"gmtCreate":1612941039916,"gmtModify":1704876255993,"author":{"id":"3574941455044316","authorId":"3574941455044316","name":"llWindyll","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574941455044316","authorIdStr":"3574941455044316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381190292","repostId":"1117067138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117067138","pubTimestamp":1612938414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117067138?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-10 14:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117067138","media":"DollarCollapse","summary":"If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980","content":"<p>If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each threatened to take down the whole financial system when it burst.</p><p>But they pale next to what’s happening today. Where those past bubbles were sector-specific, which is to say the mania and resulting carnage occurred mostly within one asset class, today’s bubble is spread across, well, pretty much everything – hence the term “everything bubble.”</p><p>When this one pops there won’t be a lot of hiding places.</p><p><b>Way too much money</b></p><p>Most bubbles start when an influx of outside cash sends the price of something up dramatically. This captures the imagination of the broader investing public and the process takes on a life of its own, culminating in an orgy of bad decisions and eventually a wipe-out of the easy fortunes made on the way up.</p><p>So to understand the everything bubble, let’s start at the beginning with that influx of outside money. This time it’s coming from the Federal Reserve in what can only be described as the mother of all print runs. M2, a medium-broad measure of the US money supply, has more than tripled so far in this century, and lately the arc has gone vertical, rising by nearly a third in just the past year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d7c5d7599587e83804628427877519b\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>All this extra money has to go somewhere, so no surprise that it’s flowing in lots of different directions. Among the recipients:</p><p><b>Fixed income</b></p><p>The bond and money markets, made up of instruments that pay interest, are in the aggregate far bigger than the world’s stock markets. And they’ve been booming, with interest rates falling steadily for four straight decades. Since bond prices are the reciprocal of bond yields, the next chart can be read as an epic bull market in bonds, one which has gained steam in the past year as massive currency creation has forced fixed income investors (who have to invest new cash somehow) to buy bonds regardless of what they yield.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39bd37dba530db68fa732d5c32f5e0ff\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To further illustrate how uniquely dysfunctional the world’s bond markets have become, here’s a chart going back to the 1300s showing that today’s rates aren’t just low by modern standards, but are the lowest in human history. Which is another way of saying today’s bond bubble dwarfs anything anywhere ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f3e80eda0017e7c7d5ba875d1f10c\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The hopeless position in which pension funds and retirees find themselves is summed up in the following headline:Junk buyers desperate for debt are pressing companies to borrow.</p><p><b>Stocks, of course</b></p><p>The most obvious bubbles happen in stocks, because “the market” gets top billing in both the financial media and the psyches of investors. And after a long, slow slog out of the depths of the Great Recession, US stocks have in the past couple of years blown through all previous valuation records. That’s right, this market is now a bigger bubble than those of 1929 and 1999, and it’s still going strong.</p><p>Pretty much any popular stock valuation indicator backs up this assertion, but the most dramatic is probably the “Buffet Indicator,” so named because legendary investor Warren Buffet uses it to decide how to allocate his billions. It’s also easy to understand: chart the aggregate market capitalization of all US stocks against GDP and there you are. When stocks are low versus GDP, they’re underappreciated and undervalued; when high compared to GDP they’re overvalued. Today they’re higher than ever before, including just before the last two major bear markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a5caecbf7ce046db1c638dc9e5c11f\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Want some other bubbliscious indicators? Here you go: Right now, more stocks are trading at over 10 times sales than in 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble. And the number of “zombie” companies, i.e., those that have to borrow to cover their existing debt service and will collapse if cut off from new credit, has never been higher.</p><p><b>Housing</b></p><p>This one is a surprise because it was the epicenter of the last bubble, and very seldom does an asset class reinflate so quickly. But hey,<i>all that money has to go somewhere</i>, and houses are the American dream yadda yadda. In the past couple of years, home prices in many places have blown through their 2006 bubble highs, and are now accelerating. Note the hockey stick inflection at the far right of the following chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56444887115ea248df937ddba049b806\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the hedge fund guy in The Big Short says after visiting Florida,“Yep, it’s a bubble.”</p><p><b>Cryptocurrencies – this generation’s dot-coms?</b></p><p>Cryptos weren’t around for any previous bubbles so their role in what’s coming isn’t yet knowable. What is clear is that they’re behaving like dot-com stocks in the 1990s, with bitcoin (think Amazon.com) soaring parabolically if erratically…</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a13760b1210cc61eda0c288bef17b5\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>… and hundreds of lesser coins with a wide variety of future prospects (think eBay, AOL, Pets.com) also soaring on a torrent of fiat currency rocket fuel. Here’s the second most valuable crypto:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e88fe38793194d9d2271f81a267410\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion: Even if cryptos end up dominating some future monetary system, their parabolic arcs in the here and now scream “bubble!”</p><p><b>As for moral hazard …</b>A true bubble is more than just soaring prices. It also features people behaving in ways that with hindsight will seem totally incomprehensible. Think previous bubbles’ daytraders and home flippers making fortunes doing things that experts normally find difficult. And recall the huge amounts of money that once poured into things that in normal times would have little appeal to rational investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (bonds that were somehow comprised of subprime mortgages<i>and</i>AAA-rated) and mutual funds holding dot-com stocks with no earnings — and no realistic prospect thereof — are prominent examples from the recent past.</p><p>Today’s world offers some even better examples of moral hazard, including:</p><p><b>SPACs</b></p><p>These are companies that go public without assets or earnings or any of the other impedimenta typical of IPOs. You give them your money and they’ll figure out how to put it to work. Why? Because they’re geniuses who claim to have made fortunes in the past few years, and you apparently have way too much cash and no productive uses for it. There are evenSPAC ETFsthat offer exposure to the whole “sector.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/254ec67bbdf4e3ad98aab47a10003289\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rock star money managers</b></p><p>In typical bubbles, a handful of money managers roll the dice on the bubble asset and win big. Bigger than big. They make ridiculous amounts of money and are hailed as geniuses and courted by reporters and politicians hoping to bask in their reflected glory. Then of course the bubble pops and the geniuses crash and burn along with their favorite speculations.</p><p>The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name)Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4ce2eab005d8a3e1d80c8331dde6a6b\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wood is still long and strong Tesla in addition to many other prominent bubble assets, and will apparently use the torrent of money now pouring into her fund to roll the dice on an even bigger scale.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be61b944e4c2d2948db8e320bafa07\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>High-tech daytraders</b>This list wouldn’t be complete without the Reddit/Robinhood traders who are having a ball chasing a wide variety of stocks straight up while tormenting hedge funds on the other side of those trades. SeeWhen Predator Becomes Prey.</p><p><b>Mutually-exclusive solutions</b></p><p>So here we are, with all the typical bubble pathologies on full display, but for multiple bubbles rather than just one. And a government determined to levitate all those bubbles simultaneously, even at the expense of rising inflation. See Jim Rickard’s latest,Hyperinflation Can Happen Much Faster Than You Think.</p><p>What happens when one of these bubbles bursts? The others burst too, in short order. You can’t have an epic, systemically dangerous bust in one big sector and placid good times in all the others. Markets – now more interconnected than ever – simply don’t work that way.</p><p>Meanwhile, the actions necessary to fix some of these bubbles are mutually exclusive. A stock market or housing bust requires much lower interest rates and bigger government deficits, while a currency crisis brought on by rising inflation requires higher interest rates and government spending cuts. Let everything blow up at once and there will be literally no fixing it. And the “everything bubble” will become the “everything bust.”</p>","source":"lsy1612938392079","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 14:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link><strong>DollarCollapse</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117067138","content_text":"If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each threatened to take down the whole financial system when it burst.But they pale next to what’s happening today. Where those past bubbles were sector-specific, which is to say the mania and resulting carnage occurred mostly within one asset class, today’s bubble is spread across, well, pretty much everything – hence the term “everything bubble.”When this one pops there won’t be a lot of hiding places.Way too much moneyMost bubbles start when an influx of outside cash sends the price of something up dramatically. This captures the imagination of the broader investing public and the process takes on a life of its own, culminating in an orgy of bad decisions and eventually a wipe-out of the easy fortunes made on the way up.So to understand the everything bubble, let’s start at the beginning with that influx of outside money. This time it’s coming from the Federal Reserve in what can only be described as the mother of all print runs. M2, a medium-broad measure of the US money supply, has more than tripled so far in this century, and lately the arc has gone vertical, rising by nearly a third in just the past year.All this extra money has to go somewhere, so no surprise that it’s flowing in lots of different directions. Among the recipients:Fixed incomeThe bond and money markets, made up of instruments that pay interest, are in the aggregate far bigger than the world’s stock markets. And they’ve been booming, with interest rates falling steadily for four straight decades. Since bond prices are the reciprocal of bond yields, the next chart can be read as an epic bull market in bonds, one which has gained steam in the past year as massive currency creation has forced fixed income investors (who have to invest new cash somehow) to buy bonds regardless of what they yield.To further illustrate how uniquely dysfunctional the world’s bond markets have become, here’s a chart going back to the 1300s showing that today’s rates aren’t just low by modern standards, but are the lowest in human history. Which is another way of saying today’s bond bubble dwarfs anything anywhere ever.The hopeless position in which pension funds and retirees find themselves is summed up in the following headline:Junk buyers desperate for debt are pressing companies to borrow.Stocks, of courseThe most obvious bubbles happen in stocks, because “the market” gets top billing in both the financial media and the psyches of investors. And after a long, slow slog out of the depths of the Great Recession, US stocks have in the past couple of years blown through all previous valuation records. That’s right, this market is now a bigger bubble than those of 1929 and 1999, and it’s still going strong.Pretty much any popular stock valuation indicator backs up this assertion, but the most dramatic is probably the “Buffet Indicator,” so named because legendary investor Warren Buffet uses it to decide how to allocate his billions. It’s also easy to understand: chart the aggregate market capitalization of all US stocks against GDP and there you are. When stocks are low versus GDP, they’re underappreciated and undervalued; when high compared to GDP they’re overvalued. Today they’re higher than ever before, including just before the last two major bear markets.Want some other bubbliscious indicators? Here you go: Right now, more stocks are trading at over 10 times sales than in 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble. And the number of “zombie” companies, i.e., those that have to borrow to cover their existing debt service and will collapse if cut off from new credit, has never been higher.HousingThis one is a surprise because it was the epicenter of the last bubble, and very seldom does an asset class reinflate so quickly. But hey,all that money has to go somewhere, and houses are the American dream yadda yadda. In the past couple of years, home prices in many places have blown through their 2006 bubble highs, and are now accelerating. Note the hockey stick inflection at the far right of the following chart.As the hedge fund guy in The Big Short says after visiting Florida,“Yep, it’s a bubble.”Cryptocurrencies – this generation’s dot-coms?Cryptos weren’t around for any previous bubbles so their role in what’s coming isn’t yet knowable. What is clear is that they’re behaving like dot-com stocks in the 1990s, with bitcoin (think Amazon.com) soaring parabolically if erratically…… and hundreds of lesser coins with a wide variety of future prospects (think eBay, AOL, Pets.com) also soaring on a torrent of fiat currency rocket fuel. Here’s the second most valuable crypto:The conclusion: Even if cryptos end up dominating some future monetary system, their parabolic arcs in the here and now scream “bubble!”As for moral hazard …A true bubble is more than just soaring prices. It also features people behaving in ways that with hindsight will seem totally incomprehensible. Think previous bubbles’ daytraders and home flippers making fortunes doing things that experts normally find difficult. And recall the huge amounts of money that once poured into things that in normal times would have little appeal to rational investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (bonds that were somehow comprised of subprime mortgagesandAAA-rated) and mutual funds holding dot-com stocks with no earnings — and no realistic prospect thereof — are prominent examples from the recent past.Today’s world offers some even better examples of moral hazard, including:SPACsThese are companies that go public without assets or earnings or any of the other impedimenta typical of IPOs. You give them your money and they’ll figure out how to put it to work. Why? Because they’re geniuses who claim to have made fortunes in the past few years, and you apparently have way too much cash and no productive uses for it. There are evenSPAC ETFsthat offer exposure to the whole “sector.”Rock star money managersIn typical bubbles, a handful of money managers roll the dice on the bubble asset and win big. Bigger than big. They make ridiculous amounts of money and are hailed as geniuses and courted by reporters and politicians hoping to bask in their reflected glory. Then of course the bubble pops and the geniuses crash and burn along with their favorite speculations.The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name)Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.Wood is still long and strong Tesla in addition to many other prominent bubble assets, and will apparently use the torrent of money now pouring into her fund to roll the dice on an even bigger scale.High-tech daytradersThis list wouldn’t be complete without the Reddit/Robinhood traders who are having a ball chasing a wide variety of stocks straight up while tormenting hedge funds on the other side of those trades. SeeWhen Predator Becomes Prey.Mutually-exclusive solutionsSo here we are, with all the typical bubble pathologies on full display, but for multiple bubbles rather than just one. And a government determined to levitate all those bubbles simultaneously, even at the expense of rising inflation. See Jim Rickard’s latest,Hyperinflation Can Happen Much Faster Than You Think.What happens when one of these bubbles bursts? The others burst too, in short order. You can’t have an epic, systemically dangerous bust in one big sector and placid good times in all the others. Markets – now more interconnected than ever – simply don’t work that way.Meanwhile, the actions necessary to fix some of these bubbles are mutually exclusive. A stock market or housing bust requires much lower interest rates and bigger government deficits, while a currency crisis brought on by rising inflation requires higher interest rates and government spending cuts. Let everything blow up at once and there will be literally no fixing it. And the “everything bubble” will become the “everything bust.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381107835,"gmtCreate":1612940914127,"gmtModify":1704876254049,"author":{"id":"3574941455044316","authorId":"3574941455044316","name":"llWindyll","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574941455044316","authorIdStr":"3574941455044316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381107835","repostId":"1192051370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192051370","pubTimestamp":1612936066,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192051370?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-10 13:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Large-Cap Value Stocks Could Be Long-Term Winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192051370","media":"Barrons","summary":"The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall of","content":"<p>The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall ofspeculative stocksand a continuation of thesmall cap rally. In this kind of environment, few people may envy a large-cap value investor, but Randall Eley thinks slow and steady wins the race.</p>\n<p>Identifying as a large-cap value investor these days “takes a lot of courage…or a naiveté,” Eley jokes. Yet as chief investment officer at Edgar Lomax, and the portfolio manager of theEdgar Lomax Valuefund (LOMAX), he has time on his side. A strong track record of past performance helps him tune out some of the near-term noise and focus on the core strategy of buying large, profitable well capitalized companies at a discount.</p>\n<p>“One of the most important ingredients of a successful investment plan is patience,” he says. “So we’re comfortable structuring portfolios that we think are going to perform strongly over lengthy periods of 10 years or more.”</p>\n<p>While large cap value may not be in fashion at the moment, Eley argues that it’s still a successful strategy worth pursuing, especially given that these companies also tend to have higher-than-average dividend yields. While many of his holdings didn’t shine in the pandemic-dominated 2020, he says he had the opportunity to invest in big well-managed companies that aren’t “just sitting dead in the water,” but making adjustments for future growth. When stronger earnings do return for these stocks, they are likely “to catch most observers by surprise, and we’ll get that outperformance we’re looking for.”</p>\n<p>His favorite areas of the market now are energy, financials, and health care. While the S&P 500 weights these categories at roughly 2.5%, 10%, and 13.5%, they stood at 8%, 16%, and 21.5% of the portfolio at the start of the year.</p>\n<p>Energy has been out of favor for some time, but Eley argues that a lot of the pandemic-related disruption will prove temporary, while the pressure to transition away from fossil fuels is a longer-standing issue that management teams have been focused on for years. While the sector has picked up this year, he believes that it hasn’t “even begun to burn out its potential.”</p>\n<p>Companies likeExxon Mobil(XOM) andChevron(CVX) are companies “with high dividend yields that management seems determined to keep paying and run conservative operations…there is a lot of incentive to run streamlined, profitable operations and consistently distribute part of those profits to shareholders.”</p>\n<p>His favorite financials includeAllstate(ALL) andMetLife(MET), but he believes the group as a whole looks attractive, as many investors were fearing a repeat of the Great Recession that never materialized. He notes that banks were wise to set aside large loan loss reserves, given the uncertainty of the pandemic, even as these moves underscored that worry. Yet the picture brightened considerably for the group late last year, and can continue to do so, he believes.</p>\n<p>Health care may be an obvious focus for many investors, given the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine, but Eley notes that his firm focuses on companies “that were profitable all along,” regardless of their positioning in the race for herd immunity, althoughPfizer(PFE) is one of his biggest holdings in this sector.</p>\n<p>Eley doesn’t hold much in the consumer sector, but he likesWalgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), andCoca-Cola(KO), whichhave struggled recently. He believes that Walgreens, his largest position in the sector, will ultimately be able to execute a turnaround, and he called Coke—one of<i>Barron’s</i> favorite stocks for 2021, a solid holding.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Large-Cap Value Stocks Could Be Long-Term Winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Large-Cap Value Stocks Could Be Long-Term Winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 13:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/large-cap-value-stocks-could-be-long-term-winners-think-metlife-and-coca-cola-51612827746?mod=hp_columnists><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall ofspeculative stocksand a continuation of thesmall cap rally. In this kind of environment, few people ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/large-cap-value-stocks-could-be-long-term-winners-think-metlife-and-coca-cola-51612827746?mod=hp_columnists\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/large-cap-value-stocks-could-be-long-term-winners-think-metlife-and-coca-cola-51612827746?mod=hp_columnists","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192051370","content_text":"The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall ofspeculative stocksand a continuation of thesmall cap rally. In this kind of environment, few people may envy a large-cap value investor, but Randall Eley thinks slow and steady wins the race.\nIdentifying as a large-cap value investor these days “takes a lot of courage…or a naiveté,” Eley jokes. Yet as chief investment officer at Edgar Lomax, and the portfolio manager of theEdgar Lomax Valuefund (LOMAX), he has time on his side. A strong track record of past performance helps him tune out some of the near-term noise and focus on the core strategy of buying large, profitable well capitalized companies at a discount.\n“One of the most important ingredients of a successful investment plan is patience,” he says. “So we’re comfortable structuring portfolios that we think are going to perform strongly over lengthy periods of 10 years or more.”\nWhile large cap value may not be in fashion at the moment, Eley argues that it’s still a successful strategy worth pursuing, especially given that these companies also tend to have higher-than-average dividend yields. While many of his holdings didn’t shine in the pandemic-dominated 2020, he says he had the opportunity to invest in big well-managed companies that aren’t “just sitting dead in the water,” but making adjustments for future growth. When stronger earnings do return for these stocks, they are likely “to catch most observers by surprise, and we’ll get that outperformance we’re looking for.”\nHis favorite areas of the market now are energy, financials, and health care. While the S&P 500 weights these categories at roughly 2.5%, 10%, and 13.5%, they stood at 8%, 16%, and 21.5% of the portfolio at the start of the year.\nEnergy has been out of favor for some time, but Eley argues that a lot of the pandemic-related disruption will prove temporary, while the pressure to transition away from fossil fuels is a longer-standing issue that management teams have been focused on for years. While the sector has picked up this year, he believes that it hasn’t “even begun to burn out its potential.”\nCompanies likeExxon Mobil(XOM) andChevron(CVX) are companies “with high dividend yields that management seems determined to keep paying and run conservative operations…there is a lot of incentive to run streamlined, profitable operations and consistently distribute part of those profits to shareholders.”\nHis favorite financials includeAllstate(ALL) andMetLife(MET), but he believes the group as a whole looks attractive, as many investors were fearing a repeat of the Great Recession that never materialized. He notes that banks were wise to set aside large loan loss reserves, given the uncertainty of the pandemic, even as these moves underscored that worry. Yet the picture brightened considerably for the group late last year, and can continue to do so, he believes.\nHealth care may be an obvious focus for many investors, given the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine, but Eley notes that his firm focuses on companies “that were profitable all along,” regardless of their positioning in the race for herd immunity, althoughPfizer(PFE) is one of his biggest holdings in this sector.\nEley doesn’t hold much in the consumer sector, but he likesWalgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), andCoca-Cola(KO), whichhave struggled recently. He believes that Walgreens, his largest position in the sector, will ultimately be able to execute a turnaround, and he called Coke—one ofBarron’s favorite stocks for 2021, a solid holding.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":161618228,"gmtCreate":1623921847864,"gmtModify":1703823570561,"author":{"id":"3574941455044316","authorId":"3574941455044316","name":"llWindyll","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574941455044316","authorIdStr":"3574941455044316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161618228","repostId":"2144710250","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144710250","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623919243,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144710250?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 16:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hawkish Fed fuels dollar, leaves stocks and bonds bruised","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144710250","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Fed projects two rate rises in 2023, talks tapering\n* Markets imply risk of first hike by end of 2","content":"<p>* Fed projects two rate rises in 2023, talks tapering</p>\n<p>* Markets imply risk of first hike by end of 2022</p>\n<p>* Bonds sell off hard, dollar surges, gold slides</p>\n<p>* Graphic: Global asset performance</p>\n<p>* Graphic: World FX rates</p>\n<p>LONDON/SYDNEY, June 17 (Reuters) - World equities were heading for their biggest fall in weeks on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve startled investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.</p>\n<p>The dollar added to what was the strongest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day rise in 15 months after the Fed meeting, while Europe's government borrowing costs moved higher after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by their most since early March.</p>\n<p>Europe's STOXX 600 snapped a 9-day winning streak - its longest since 2017 - with a 0.3% early dip. Asia-Pacific shares were closing down around 0.7% , while Wall Street futures pointed to a modest 0.4% drop.</p>\n<p>The Fed forecasts showed 13 of the 18 person policy board saw rates rising in 2023 versus only six previously, while seven tipped a first move in 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The new Fed 'dot plot' indicating that the median FOMC member now forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2023, versus none in the March iteration, represented the hawkish surprise out of the June Fed meeting,\" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.</p>\n<p>While these 'dot plots' are not commitments and have a poor track record of predicting rates, the sudden shift was a shock.</p>\n<p>The Fed also signalled it would now be considering whether to 'taper' its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase programme meeting by meeting and downgraded the risk from the pandemic given progress with vaccinations.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan analysts noted Fed Chair Jerome Powell had not been as aggressive in his media conference. He had described it as a \"talking about talking about meeting,\" a glib reference to his protestations earlier this year that the Fed was not even \"talking about talking about\" tighter policy.</p>\n<p>\"It appears that faster progress toward reopening and higher inflation surprises revealed some hawks on the FOMC, but we suspect that leadership is predominantly anchored at zero or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hike in 2023,\" JPMorgan said, sticking with a prediction for tapering to start early next year.</p>\n<p>Markets moved quickly to price in the risk of earlier action and Fed fund futures shifted to imply a first hike by the end of 2022. Yields on 10-year bonds shot up almost nine basis points to 1.57%.</p>\n<p>ALL RISE</p>\n<p>The dollar also broke out of recent tight ranges. It had risen 0.9% on Wednesday against a basket of currencies to 91.387</p>\n<p>for its biggest gain since March last year and set a two-month high in early European trading.</p>\n<p>Powell's hawkish turn prompted both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to abandon their calls that the U.S. currency would weaken against the euro, although others were not so sure.</p>\n<p>Agnès Belaisch, Chief European Strategist of the Barings Investment Institute, said the fact that the Fed was not going to lift rates any time soon was good for world growth and that FX markets would therefore get over Wednesday's shift.</p>\n<p>\"He (Powell) said they wouldn't do anything for the next two years, so it's a shock but wrapped in good news,\" Belaisch said.</p>\n<p>\"I think he gave the markets the all-clear to rally\".</p>\n<p>The euro slipped back towards $1.1950 in the European session and the dollar was just shy of its 2021 high against the yen, last buying 110.55 yen .</p>\n<p>The kiwi dollar clawed back about half of its overnight losses after first-quarter growth figures blew past forecasts, and while the Aussie dollar and British pound stabilised emerging market currencies weakened.</p>\n<p>Ahead for currency markets is an interest rate decision from Turkey's central bank due at 1100 GMT, which has the lira on edge . Norway's central bank kept its interest rates at zero, but said a hike will most likely follow in September.</p>\n<p>Elsewhere, the rise in bond yields and the dollar were a double blow for non-yielding gold which was down at $1,810 an ounce after sliding 2.5% overnight.</p>\n<p>Oil prices were insulated by the prospect of stronger world demand and still tight supply, with Brent reaching its highest since April 2019 before running into profit taking and headwinds from the sharply higher dollar.</p>\n<p>Brent was last off 0.3% at $74.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.2% as well to trade at $71.98.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Fed fuels dollar, leaves stocks and bonds bruised</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Fed fuels dollar, leaves stocks and bonds bruised\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>* Fed projects two rate rises in 2023, talks tapering</p>\n<p>* Markets imply risk of first hike by end of 2022</p>\n<p>* Bonds sell off hard, dollar surges, gold slides</p>\n<p>* Graphic: Global asset performance</p>\n<p>* Graphic: World FX rates</p>\n<p>LONDON/SYDNEY, June 17 (Reuters) - World equities were heading for their biggest fall in weeks on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve startled investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.</p>\n<p>The dollar added to what was the strongest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day rise in 15 months after the Fed meeting, while Europe's government borrowing costs moved higher after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by their most since early March.</p>\n<p>Europe's STOXX 600 snapped a 9-day winning streak - its longest since 2017 - with a 0.3% early dip. Asia-Pacific shares were closing down around 0.7% , while Wall Street futures pointed to a modest 0.4% drop.</p>\n<p>The Fed forecasts showed 13 of the 18 person policy board saw rates rising in 2023 versus only six previously, while seven tipped a first move in 2022.</p>\n<p>\"The new Fed 'dot plot' indicating that the median FOMC member now forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2023, versus none in the March iteration, represented the hawkish surprise out of the June Fed meeting,\" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.</p>\n<p>While these 'dot plots' are not commitments and have a poor track record of predicting rates, the sudden shift was a shock.</p>\n<p>The Fed also signalled it would now be considering whether to 'taper' its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase programme meeting by meeting and downgraded the risk from the pandemic given progress with vaccinations.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan analysts noted Fed Chair Jerome Powell had not been as aggressive in his media conference. He had described it as a \"talking about talking about meeting,\" a glib reference to his protestations earlier this year that the Fed was not even \"talking about talking about\" tighter policy.</p>\n<p>\"It appears that faster progress toward reopening and higher inflation surprises revealed some hawks on the FOMC, but we suspect that leadership is predominantly anchored at zero or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hike in 2023,\" JPMorgan said, sticking with a prediction for tapering to start early next year.</p>\n<p>Markets moved quickly to price in the risk of earlier action and Fed fund futures shifted to imply a first hike by the end of 2022. Yields on 10-year bonds shot up almost nine basis points to 1.57%.</p>\n<p>ALL RISE</p>\n<p>The dollar also broke out of recent tight ranges. It had risen 0.9% on Wednesday against a basket of currencies to 91.387</p>\n<p>for its biggest gain since March last year and set a two-month high in early European trading.</p>\n<p>Powell's hawkish turn prompted both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to abandon their calls that the U.S. currency would weaken against the euro, although others were not so sure.</p>\n<p>Agnès Belaisch, Chief European Strategist of the Barings Investment Institute, said the fact that the Fed was not going to lift rates any time soon was good for world growth and that FX markets would therefore get over Wednesday's shift.</p>\n<p>\"He (Powell) said they wouldn't do anything for the next two years, so it's a shock but wrapped in good news,\" Belaisch said.</p>\n<p>\"I think he gave the markets the all-clear to rally\".</p>\n<p>The euro slipped back towards $1.1950 in the European session and the dollar was just shy of its 2021 high against the yen, last buying 110.55 yen .</p>\n<p>The kiwi dollar clawed back about half of its overnight losses after first-quarter growth figures blew past forecasts, and while the Aussie dollar and British pound stabilised emerging market currencies weakened.</p>\n<p>Ahead for currency markets is an interest rate decision from Turkey's central bank due at 1100 GMT, which has the lira on edge . Norway's central bank kept its interest rates at zero, but said a hike will most likely follow in September.</p>\n<p>Elsewhere, the rise in bond yields and the dollar were a double blow for non-yielding gold which was down at $1,810 an ounce after sliding 2.5% overnight.</p>\n<p>Oil prices were insulated by the prospect of stronger world demand and still tight supply, with Brent reaching its highest since April 2019 before running into profit taking and headwinds from the sharply higher dollar.</p>\n<p>Brent was last off 0.3% at $74.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.2% as well to trade at $71.98.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144710250","content_text":"* Fed projects two rate rises in 2023, talks tapering\n* Markets imply risk of first hike by end of 2022\n* Bonds sell off hard, dollar surges, gold slides\n* Graphic: Global asset performance\n* Graphic: World FX rates\nLONDON/SYDNEY, June 17 (Reuters) - World equities were heading for their biggest fall in weeks on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve startled investors by signalling it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed, sending bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.\nThe dollar added to what was the strongest one-day rise in 15 months after the Fed meeting, while Europe's government borrowing costs moved higher after 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by their most since early March.\nEurope's STOXX 600 snapped a 9-day winning streak - its longest since 2017 - with a 0.3% early dip. Asia-Pacific shares were closing down around 0.7% , while Wall Street futures pointed to a modest 0.4% drop.\nThe Fed forecasts showed 13 of the 18 person policy board saw rates rising in 2023 versus only six previously, while seven tipped a first move in 2022.\n\"The new Fed 'dot plot' indicating that the median FOMC member now forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2023, versus none in the March iteration, represented the hawkish surprise out of the June Fed meeting,\" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.\nWhile these 'dot plots' are not commitments and have a poor track record of predicting rates, the sudden shift was a shock.\nThe Fed also signalled it would now be considering whether to 'taper' its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase programme meeting by meeting and downgraded the risk from the pandemic given progress with vaccinations.\nJPMorgan analysts noted Fed Chair Jerome Powell had not been as aggressive in his media conference. He had described it as a \"talking about talking about meeting,\" a glib reference to his protestations earlier this year that the Fed was not even \"talking about talking about\" tighter policy.\n\"It appears that faster progress toward reopening and higher inflation surprises revealed some hawks on the FOMC, but we suspect that leadership is predominantly anchored at zero or one hike in 2023,\" JPMorgan said, sticking with a prediction for tapering to start early next year.\nMarkets moved quickly to price in the risk of earlier action and Fed fund futures shifted to imply a first hike by the end of 2022. Yields on 10-year bonds shot up almost nine basis points to 1.57%.\nALL RISE\nThe dollar also broke out of recent tight ranges. It had risen 0.9% on Wednesday against a basket of currencies to 91.387\nfor its biggest gain since March last year and set a two-month high in early European trading.\nPowell's hawkish turn prompted both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to abandon their calls that the U.S. currency would weaken against the euro, although others were not so sure.\nAgnès Belaisch, Chief European Strategist of the Barings Investment Institute, said the fact that the Fed was not going to lift rates any time soon was good for world growth and that FX markets would therefore get over Wednesday's shift.\n\"He (Powell) said they wouldn't do anything for the next two years, so it's a shock but wrapped in good news,\" Belaisch said.\n\"I think he gave the markets the all-clear to rally\".\nThe euro slipped back towards $1.1950 in the European session and the dollar was just shy of its 2021 high against the yen, last buying 110.55 yen .\nThe kiwi dollar clawed back about half of its overnight losses after first-quarter growth figures blew past forecasts, and while the Aussie dollar and British pound stabilised emerging market currencies weakened.\nAhead for currency markets is an interest rate decision from Turkey's central bank due at 1100 GMT, which has the lira on edge . Norway's central bank kept its interest rates at zero, but said a hike will most likely follow in September.\nElsewhere, the rise in bond yields and the dollar were a double blow for non-yielding gold which was down at $1,810 an ounce after sliding 2.5% overnight.\nOil prices were insulated by the prospect of stronger world demand and still tight supply, with Brent reaching its highest since April 2019 before running into profit taking and headwinds from the sharply higher dollar.\nBrent was last off 0.3% at $74.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.2% as well to trade at $71.98.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381107835,"gmtCreate":1612940914127,"gmtModify":1704876254049,"author":{"id":"3574941455044316","authorId":"3574941455044316","name":"llWindyll","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574941455044316","authorIdStr":"3574941455044316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381107835","repostId":"1192051370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192051370","pubTimestamp":1612936066,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192051370?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-10 13:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Large-Cap Value Stocks Could Be Long-Term Winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192051370","media":"Barrons","summary":"The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall of","content":"<p>The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall ofspeculative stocksand a continuation of thesmall cap rally. In this kind of environment, few people may envy a large-cap value investor, but Randall Eley thinks slow and steady wins the race.</p>\n<p>Identifying as a large-cap value investor these days “takes a lot of courage…or a naiveté,” Eley jokes. Yet as chief investment officer at Edgar Lomax, and the portfolio manager of theEdgar Lomax Valuefund (LOMAX), he has time on his side. A strong track record of past performance helps him tune out some of the near-term noise and focus on the core strategy of buying large, profitable well capitalized companies at a discount.</p>\n<p>“One of the most important ingredients of a successful investment plan is patience,” he says. “So we’re comfortable structuring portfolios that we think are going to perform strongly over lengthy periods of 10 years or more.”</p>\n<p>While large cap value may not be in fashion at the moment, Eley argues that it’s still a successful strategy worth pursuing, especially given that these companies also tend to have higher-than-average dividend yields. While many of his holdings didn’t shine in the pandemic-dominated 2020, he says he had the opportunity to invest in big well-managed companies that aren’t “just sitting dead in the water,” but making adjustments for future growth. When stronger earnings do return for these stocks, they are likely “to catch most observers by surprise, and we’ll get that outperformance we’re looking for.”</p>\n<p>His favorite areas of the market now are energy, financials, and health care. While the S&P 500 weights these categories at roughly 2.5%, 10%, and 13.5%, they stood at 8%, 16%, and 21.5% of the portfolio at the start of the year.</p>\n<p>Energy has been out of favor for some time, but Eley argues that a lot of the pandemic-related disruption will prove temporary, while the pressure to transition away from fossil fuels is a longer-standing issue that management teams have been focused on for years. While the sector has picked up this year, he believes that it hasn’t “even begun to burn out its potential.”</p>\n<p>Companies likeExxon Mobil(XOM) andChevron(CVX) are companies “with high dividend yields that management seems determined to keep paying and run conservative operations…there is a lot of incentive to run streamlined, profitable operations and consistently distribute part of those profits to shareholders.”</p>\n<p>His favorite financials includeAllstate(ALL) andMetLife(MET), but he believes the group as a whole looks attractive, as many investors were fearing a repeat of the Great Recession that never materialized. He notes that banks were wise to set aside large loan loss reserves, given the uncertainty of the pandemic, even as these moves underscored that worry. Yet the picture brightened considerably for the group late last year, and can continue to do so, he believes.</p>\n<p>Health care may be an obvious focus for many investors, given the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine, but Eley notes that his firm focuses on companies “that were profitable all along,” regardless of their positioning in the race for herd immunity, althoughPfizer(PFE) is one of his biggest holdings in this sector.</p>\n<p>Eley doesn’t hold much in the consumer sector, but he likesWalgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), andCoca-Cola(KO), whichhave struggled recently. He believes that Walgreens, his largest position in the sector, will ultimately be able to execute a turnaround, and he called Coke—one of<i>Barron’s</i> favorite stocks for 2021, a solid holding.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Large-Cap Value Stocks Could Be Long-Term Winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Large-Cap Value Stocks Could Be Long-Term Winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 13:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/large-cap-value-stocks-could-be-long-term-winners-think-metlife-and-coca-cola-51612827746?mod=hp_columnists><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall ofspeculative stocksand a continuation of thesmall cap rally. In this kind of environment, few people ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/large-cap-value-stocks-could-be-long-term-winners-think-metlife-and-coca-cola-51612827746?mod=hp_columnists\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/large-cap-value-stocks-could-be-long-term-winners-think-metlife-and-coca-cola-51612827746?mod=hp_columnists","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192051370","content_text":"The new year is just over a month old, but it has been dominated by the spectacular rise and fall ofspeculative stocksand a continuation of thesmall cap rally. In this kind of environment, few people may envy a large-cap value investor, but Randall Eley thinks slow and steady wins the race.\nIdentifying as a large-cap value investor these days “takes a lot of courage…or a naiveté,” Eley jokes. Yet as chief investment officer at Edgar Lomax, and the portfolio manager of theEdgar Lomax Valuefund (LOMAX), he has time on his side. A strong track record of past performance helps him tune out some of the near-term noise and focus on the core strategy of buying large, profitable well capitalized companies at a discount.\n“One of the most important ingredients of a successful investment plan is patience,” he says. “So we’re comfortable structuring portfolios that we think are going to perform strongly over lengthy periods of 10 years or more.”\nWhile large cap value may not be in fashion at the moment, Eley argues that it’s still a successful strategy worth pursuing, especially given that these companies also tend to have higher-than-average dividend yields. While many of his holdings didn’t shine in the pandemic-dominated 2020, he says he had the opportunity to invest in big well-managed companies that aren’t “just sitting dead in the water,” but making adjustments for future growth. When stronger earnings do return for these stocks, they are likely “to catch most observers by surprise, and we’ll get that outperformance we’re looking for.”\nHis favorite areas of the market now are energy, financials, and health care. While the S&P 500 weights these categories at roughly 2.5%, 10%, and 13.5%, they stood at 8%, 16%, and 21.5% of the portfolio at the start of the year.\nEnergy has been out of favor for some time, but Eley argues that a lot of the pandemic-related disruption will prove temporary, while the pressure to transition away from fossil fuels is a longer-standing issue that management teams have been focused on for years. While the sector has picked up this year, he believes that it hasn’t “even begun to burn out its potential.”\nCompanies likeExxon Mobil(XOM) andChevron(CVX) are companies “with high dividend yields that management seems determined to keep paying and run conservative operations…there is a lot of incentive to run streamlined, profitable operations and consistently distribute part of those profits to shareholders.”\nHis favorite financials includeAllstate(ALL) andMetLife(MET), but he believes the group as a whole looks attractive, as many investors were fearing a repeat of the Great Recession that never materialized. He notes that banks were wise to set aside large loan loss reserves, given the uncertainty of the pandemic, even as these moves underscored that worry. Yet the picture brightened considerably for the group late last year, and can continue to do so, he believes.\nHealth care may be an obvious focus for many investors, given the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine, but Eley notes that his firm focuses on companies “that were profitable all along,” regardless of their positioning in the race for herd immunity, althoughPfizer(PFE) is one of his biggest holdings in this sector.\nEley doesn’t hold much in the consumer sector, but he likesWalgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), andCoca-Cola(KO), whichhave struggled recently. He believes that Walgreens, his largest position in the sector, will ultimately be able to execute a turnaround, and he called Coke—one ofBarron’s favorite stocks for 2021, a solid holding.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381190292,"gmtCreate":1612941039916,"gmtModify":1704876255993,"author":{"id":"3574941455044316","authorId":"3574941455044316","name":"llWindyll","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574941455044316","authorIdStr":"3574941455044316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381190292","repostId":"1117067138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117067138","pubTimestamp":1612938414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117067138?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-10 14:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117067138","media":"DollarCollapse","summary":"If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980","content":"<p>If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each threatened to take down the whole financial system when it burst.</p><p>But they pale next to what’s happening today. Where those past bubbles were sector-specific, which is to say the mania and resulting carnage occurred mostly within one asset class, today’s bubble is spread across, well, pretty much everything – hence the term “everything bubble.”</p><p>When this one pops there won’t be a lot of hiding places.</p><p><b>Way too much money</b></p><p>Most bubbles start when an influx of outside cash sends the price of something up dramatically. This captures the imagination of the broader investing public and the process takes on a life of its own, culminating in an orgy of bad decisions and eventually a wipe-out of the easy fortunes made on the way up.</p><p>So to understand the everything bubble, let’s start at the beginning with that influx of outside money. This time it’s coming from the Federal Reserve in what can only be described as the mother of all print runs. M2, a medium-broad measure of the US money supply, has more than tripled so far in this century, and lately the arc has gone vertical, rising by nearly a third in just the past year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d7c5d7599587e83804628427877519b\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>All this extra money has to go somewhere, so no surprise that it’s flowing in lots of different directions. Among the recipients:</p><p><b>Fixed income</b></p><p>The bond and money markets, made up of instruments that pay interest, are in the aggregate far bigger than the world’s stock markets. And they’ve been booming, with interest rates falling steadily for four straight decades. Since bond prices are the reciprocal of bond yields, the next chart can be read as an epic bull market in bonds, one which has gained steam in the past year as massive currency creation has forced fixed income investors (who have to invest new cash somehow) to buy bonds regardless of what they yield.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39bd37dba530db68fa732d5c32f5e0ff\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To further illustrate how uniquely dysfunctional the world’s bond markets have become, here’s a chart going back to the 1300s showing that today’s rates aren’t just low by modern standards, but are the lowest in human history. Which is another way of saying today’s bond bubble dwarfs anything anywhere ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f3e80eda0017e7c7d5ba875d1f10c\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The hopeless position in which pension funds and retirees find themselves is summed up in the following headline:Junk buyers desperate for debt are pressing companies to borrow.</p><p><b>Stocks, of course</b></p><p>The most obvious bubbles happen in stocks, because “the market” gets top billing in both the financial media and the psyches of investors. And after a long, slow slog out of the depths of the Great Recession, US stocks have in the past couple of years blown through all previous valuation records. That’s right, this market is now a bigger bubble than those of 1929 and 1999, and it’s still going strong.</p><p>Pretty much any popular stock valuation indicator backs up this assertion, but the most dramatic is probably the “Buffet Indicator,” so named because legendary investor Warren Buffet uses it to decide how to allocate his billions. It’s also easy to understand: chart the aggregate market capitalization of all US stocks against GDP and there you are. When stocks are low versus GDP, they’re underappreciated and undervalued; when high compared to GDP they’re overvalued. Today they’re higher than ever before, including just before the last two major bear markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a5caecbf7ce046db1c638dc9e5c11f\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Want some other bubbliscious indicators? Here you go: Right now, more stocks are trading at over 10 times sales than in 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble. And the number of “zombie” companies, i.e., those that have to borrow to cover their existing debt service and will collapse if cut off from new credit, has never been higher.</p><p><b>Housing</b></p><p>This one is a surprise because it was the epicenter of the last bubble, and very seldom does an asset class reinflate so quickly. But hey,<i>all that money has to go somewhere</i>, and houses are the American dream yadda yadda. In the past couple of years, home prices in many places have blown through their 2006 bubble highs, and are now accelerating. Note the hockey stick inflection at the far right of the following chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56444887115ea248df937ddba049b806\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the hedge fund guy in The Big Short says after visiting Florida,“Yep, it’s a bubble.”</p><p><b>Cryptocurrencies – this generation’s dot-coms?</b></p><p>Cryptos weren’t around for any previous bubbles so their role in what’s coming isn’t yet knowable. What is clear is that they’re behaving like dot-com stocks in the 1990s, with bitcoin (think Amazon.com) soaring parabolically if erratically…</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a13760b1210cc61eda0c288bef17b5\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>… and hundreds of lesser coins with a wide variety of future prospects (think eBay, AOL, Pets.com) also soaring on a torrent of fiat currency rocket fuel. Here’s the second most valuable crypto:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e88fe38793194d9d2271f81a267410\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion: Even if cryptos end up dominating some future monetary system, their parabolic arcs in the here and now scream “bubble!”</p><p><b>As for moral hazard …</b>A true bubble is more than just soaring prices. It also features people behaving in ways that with hindsight will seem totally incomprehensible. Think previous bubbles’ daytraders and home flippers making fortunes doing things that experts normally find difficult. And recall the huge amounts of money that once poured into things that in normal times would have little appeal to rational investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (bonds that were somehow comprised of subprime mortgages<i>and</i>AAA-rated) and mutual funds holding dot-com stocks with no earnings — and no realistic prospect thereof — are prominent examples from the recent past.</p><p>Today’s world offers some even better examples of moral hazard, including:</p><p><b>SPACs</b></p><p>These are companies that go public without assets or earnings or any of the other impedimenta typical of IPOs. You give them your money and they’ll figure out how to put it to work. Why? Because they’re geniuses who claim to have made fortunes in the past few years, and you apparently have way too much cash and no productive uses for it. There are evenSPAC ETFsthat offer exposure to the whole “sector.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/254ec67bbdf4e3ad98aab47a10003289\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rock star money managers</b></p><p>In typical bubbles, a handful of money managers roll the dice on the bubble asset and win big. Bigger than big. They make ridiculous amounts of money and are hailed as geniuses and courted by reporters and politicians hoping to bask in their reflected glory. Then of course the bubble pops and the geniuses crash and burn along with their favorite speculations.</p><p>The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name)Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4ce2eab005d8a3e1d80c8331dde6a6b\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wood is still long and strong Tesla in addition to many other prominent bubble assets, and will apparently use the torrent of money now pouring into her fund to roll the dice on an even bigger scale.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be61b944e4c2d2948db8e320bafa07\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>High-tech daytraders</b>This list wouldn’t be complete without the Reddit/Robinhood traders who are having a ball chasing a wide variety of stocks straight up while tormenting hedge funds on the other side of those trades. SeeWhen Predator Becomes Prey.</p><p><b>Mutually-exclusive solutions</b></p><p>So here we are, with all the typical bubble pathologies on full display, but for multiple bubbles rather than just one. And a government determined to levitate all those bubbles simultaneously, even at the expense of rising inflation. See Jim Rickard’s latest,Hyperinflation Can Happen Much Faster Than You Think.</p><p>What happens when one of these bubbles bursts? The others burst too, in short order. You can’t have an epic, systemically dangerous bust in one big sector and placid good times in all the others. Markets – now more interconnected than ever – simply don’t work that way.</p><p>Meanwhile, the actions necessary to fix some of these bubbles are mutually exclusive. A stock market or housing bust requires much lower interest rates and bigger government deficits, while a currency crisis brought on by rising inflation requires higher interest rates and government spending cuts. Let everything blow up at once and there will be literally no fixing it. And the “everything bubble” will become the “everything bust.”</p>","source":"lsy1612938392079","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 14:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link><strong>DollarCollapse</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117067138","content_text":"If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each threatened to take down the whole financial system when it burst.But they pale next to what’s happening today. Where those past bubbles were sector-specific, which is to say the mania and resulting carnage occurred mostly within one asset class, today’s bubble is spread across, well, pretty much everything – hence the term “everything bubble.”When this one pops there won’t be a lot of hiding places.Way too much moneyMost bubbles start when an influx of outside cash sends the price of something up dramatically. This captures the imagination of the broader investing public and the process takes on a life of its own, culminating in an orgy of bad decisions and eventually a wipe-out of the easy fortunes made on the way up.So to understand the everything bubble, let’s start at the beginning with that influx of outside money. This time it’s coming from the Federal Reserve in what can only be described as the mother of all print runs. M2, a medium-broad measure of the US money supply, has more than tripled so far in this century, and lately the arc has gone vertical, rising by nearly a third in just the past year.All this extra money has to go somewhere, so no surprise that it’s flowing in lots of different directions. Among the recipients:Fixed incomeThe bond and money markets, made up of instruments that pay interest, are in the aggregate far bigger than the world’s stock markets. And they’ve been booming, with interest rates falling steadily for four straight decades. Since bond prices are the reciprocal of bond yields, the next chart can be read as an epic bull market in bonds, one which has gained steam in the past year as massive currency creation has forced fixed income investors (who have to invest new cash somehow) to buy bonds regardless of what they yield.To further illustrate how uniquely dysfunctional the world’s bond markets have become, here’s a chart going back to the 1300s showing that today’s rates aren’t just low by modern standards, but are the lowest in human history. Which is another way of saying today’s bond bubble dwarfs anything anywhere ever.The hopeless position in which pension funds and retirees find themselves is summed up in the following headline:Junk buyers desperate for debt are pressing companies to borrow.Stocks, of courseThe most obvious bubbles happen in stocks, because “the market” gets top billing in both the financial media and the psyches of investors. And after a long, slow slog out of the depths of the Great Recession, US stocks have in the past couple of years blown through all previous valuation records. That’s right, this market is now a bigger bubble than those of 1929 and 1999, and it’s still going strong.Pretty much any popular stock valuation indicator backs up this assertion, but the most dramatic is probably the “Buffet Indicator,” so named because legendary investor Warren Buffet uses it to decide how to allocate his billions. It’s also easy to understand: chart the aggregate market capitalization of all US stocks against GDP and there you are. When stocks are low versus GDP, they’re underappreciated and undervalued; when high compared to GDP they’re overvalued. Today they’re higher than ever before, including just before the last two major bear markets.Want some other bubbliscious indicators? Here you go: Right now, more stocks are trading at over 10 times sales than in 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble. And the number of “zombie” companies, i.e., those that have to borrow to cover their existing debt service and will collapse if cut off from new credit, has never been higher.HousingThis one is a surprise because it was the epicenter of the last bubble, and very seldom does an asset class reinflate so quickly. But hey,all that money has to go somewhere, and houses are the American dream yadda yadda. In the past couple of years, home prices in many places have blown through their 2006 bubble highs, and are now accelerating. Note the hockey stick inflection at the far right of the following chart.As the hedge fund guy in The Big Short says after visiting Florida,“Yep, it’s a bubble.”Cryptocurrencies – this generation’s dot-coms?Cryptos weren’t around for any previous bubbles so their role in what’s coming isn’t yet knowable. What is clear is that they’re behaving like dot-com stocks in the 1990s, with bitcoin (think Amazon.com) soaring parabolically if erratically…… and hundreds of lesser coins with a wide variety of future prospects (think eBay, AOL, Pets.com) also soaring on a torrent of fiat currency rocket fuel. Here’s the second most valuable crypto:The conclusion: Even if cryptos end up dominating some future monetary system, their parabolic arcs in the here and now scream “bubble!”As for moral hazard …A true bubble is more than just soaring prices. It also features people behaving in ways that with hindsight will seem totally incomprehensible. Think previous bubbles’ daytraders and home flippers making fortunes doing things that experts normally find difficult. And recall the huge amounts of money that once poured into things that in normal times would have little appeal to rational investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (bonds that were somehow comprised of subprime mortgagesandAAA-rated) and mutual funds holding dot-com stocks with no earnings — and no realistic prospect thereof — are prominent examples from the recent past.Today’s world offers some even better examples of moral hazard, including:SPACsThese are companies that go public without assets or earnings or any of the other impedimenta typical of IPOs. You give them your money and they’ll figure out how to put it to work. Why? Because they’re geniuses who claim to have made fortunes in the past few years, and you apparently have way too much cash and no productive uses for it. There are evenSPAC ETFsthat offer exposure to the whole “sector.”Rock star money managersIn typical bubbles, a handful of money managers roll the dice on the bubble asset and win big. Bigger than big. They make ridiculous amounts of money and are hailed as geniuses and courted by reporters and politicians hoping to bask in their reflected glory. Then of course the bubble pops and the geniuses crash and burn along with their favorite speculations.The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name)Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.Wood is still long and strong Tesla in addition to many other prominent bubble assets, and will apparently use the torrent of money now pouring into her fund to roll the dice on an even bigger scale.High-tech daytradersThis list wouldn’t be complete without the Reddit/Robinhood traders who are having a ball chasing a wide variety of stocks straight up while tormenting hedge funds on the other side of those trades. SeeWhen Predator Becomes Prey.Mutually-exclusive solutionsSo here we are, with all the typical bubble pathologies on full display, but for multiple bubbles rather than just one. And a government determined to levitate all those bubbles simultaneously, even at the expense of rising inflation. See Jim Rickard’s latest,Hyperinflation Can Happen Much Faster Than You Think.What happens when one of these bubbles bursts? The others burst too, in short order. You can’t have an epic, systemically dangerous bust in one big sector and placid good times in all the others. Markets – now more interconnected than ever – simply don’t work that way.Meanwhile, the actions necessary to fix some of these bubbles are mutually exclusive. A stock market or housing bust requires much lower interest rates and bigger government deficits, while a currency crisis brought on by rising inflation requires higher interest rates and government spending cuts. Let everything blow up at once and there will be literally no fixing it. And the “everything bubble” will become the “everything bust.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
