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Geniex

Geniex

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2022-03-04

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Cathie Wood Didn’t Come This Far to Quit Now

2023-03-06

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Jobs Report; Powell Testifies; Sea, JD.com, CrowdStrike Earnings: What to Know This Week

2023-01-04

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Bets on Stock Rally Explode After an Odd Year in Options Trading

2021-07-07

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U.S. stock futures are slightly lower after S&P 500 snaps 7-day winning streak

2022-03-10

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US STOCKS-Tech, Financials Lead Resurgent Wall St as Oil Plunges

2023-02-18

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Reminder: U.S. Market Will Be Closed for Washington's Birthday on Monday, Feb. 20, 2023

2023-01-17

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3 Stocks to Avoid This Week

2023-03-25

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Wall Street Ends Volatile Week Higher as Fed Officials Ease Bank Fears

2021-04-29

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Apple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks

2023-02-14

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Wall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios

2023-02-05

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The Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next

2021-05-08

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S&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries

2023-02-20

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The Fed Minutes May Reveal A Steep Rise In Rates On The Horizon

2023-02-22

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3 Stocks to Put on Bankruptcy Watch in 2023

2023-02-12

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These 20 AI Stocks Are Expected By Analysts to Rise up to 85% Over the Next Year

2023-01-31

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Tesla: Calm Before The Interest Rate Storm

2023-01-24

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Why Naked Short Selling Has Suddenly Become a Hot Topic

2023-01-30

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Apple and Amazon Earnings, a Federal Reserve Decision, January Jobs Data, and More for Investors to Watch This Week

2022-11-28

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Jobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week

2022-11-19

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Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner

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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255944822943920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9033464089,"gmtCreate":1646349135972,"gmtModify":1676534119230,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033464089","repostId":"1191803969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191803969","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646306336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191803969?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-03 19:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Didn’t Come This Far to Quit Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191803969","media":" Financial Times","summary":"A year ago, she managed more than $60bn. Now she faces the toughest battle of her career","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A year ago, she managed more than $60bn. Now she faces the toughest battle of her career</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc7309eb5e0b8662aab9d630e09fa007\" tg-width=\"2835\" tg-height=\"2835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cathie Wood’s favourite scripture is Psalm 91, the hymn of protection. The founder of Ark Invest starts telling me the story of the Miracle of Dunkirk, when Allied soldiers were rescued from doomed French beaches in 1940. “A group of soldiers were huddled saying Psalm 91,” she says, “and they were one of the few groups of soldiers saved on that day.”</p><p>Wood’s eight-year-old investment management firm is named after the Ark of the Covenant – the chest said to have held the Ten Commandments – which was taken by the Israelites into battle. “Ark also has to do with battle,” Wood continues. “Battling the traditional world order is what we’re doing.”</p><p>In less than a decade, Wood has emerged as the public face of a tech-driven bull market on steroids. She championed actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a type of investment that combines the stock-picking normally associated with mutual funds with the convenience and tax benefits of ETFs.</p><p>Her big, concentrated bets on “disruptive innovation”, borderline outlandish predictions on everything from shares in electric carmaker Tesla to the price of bitcoin and her savvy use of social media helped to drive assets in Ark’s overall stable of ETFs to a value of $61bn at their peak in February last year, making her the most prominent and scrutinised female investor in the world.</p><p>Ark rose during a period characterised by retail trading, meme stocks and surging cryptocurrencies, with thousands of punters opening new brokerage accounts online and using Twitter and Reddit to exchange investing ideas. By freely sharing Ark’s research, Wood developed a cult following online, where to her disciples she is “Auntie Cathie” or “Cathie Bae” and where she has spawned a range of merchandise, including a T-shirt that depicts her riding a bull with the slogan “The Queen of the bull market”. Another just reads “In Cathie We Trust”.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57995e0d1a749fd8f8be3d788fd76cf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wood has fans at the highest level of finance as well. “Regardless of performance trends, it’s clear that Cathie is disrupting the asset management industry in order to capture the imagination of a new generation of investors,” says Katie Koch, a partner at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “She has demonstrated great respect for the retail investor by democratising access to information.” A top investor in growth companies tells me, “I admire Cathie’s spirit and willingness to put her head above the parapet.”</p><p>At the moment, though, Wood is in the toughest battle of her career. The 66-year-old is fighting against market momentum and trying to halt huge losses and outflows. Assets in Ark’s overall stable of thematic exchange-traded funds have dropped to $23.1bn since its 2021 high. Its flagship Ark Disruptive Innovation ETF, stock market ticker ARKK, has more than halved in value in the same period, during which time every single one of the fund’s 36 stocks has dropped. During the same period, the Nasdaq fell about 2.4 per cent.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1adaed74f4f1f444417dec6e7e525c02\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The cover of FT Magazine, March 6/7</span></p><p>On the face of it, ARKK boasts a stellar long-term track record: it has made an average of 38 per cent a year over the past five years, boosted by eye-watering gains of 157 per cent in 2020 as the pandemic turbocharged investor excitement about the technologies that underpin its portfolios – DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence and the blockchain. Ark’s returns “sit in very rarefied air”, says Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research at data provider Morningstar. But most of its longer-term returns came when it had a much smaller asset base, meaning that “most investors in Ark’s funds are underwater”.</p><p>Critics – and there are a lot of them – argue that Wood’s success owes more to the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy than to her investment research or stock-picking prowess. Her quasi-prophetic certainty about the future is detached from reality, they argue, and Ark’s performance has been inflated by pouring money into thinly traded stocks.</p><p>“She’s brought a lot of attention to the concept of innovation, which is great,” says a prominent venture capitalist. “But the difficulty she has is that she believes in stories. Sometimes you have to disassociate the story from the business model and the valuation.” A top executive at a multitrillion-dollar asset manager says: “She tells a whole story that’s almost impervious to facts.” And a New York-based hedge fund manager adds: “She may be right in the long run, we just don’t know who the survivors will be in all of these industries. And the valuations are crazy.”</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, sentiment has been turning against the more speculative part of the market in which Ark operates, and the Russia-Ukraine war has further roiled global markets. Waves of monetary stimulus during the pandemic helped gloss over the risks of investing in the types of hot, fast-growing and loss-making tech companies Wood favours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bccdf341bcf5b32a79cb07dae3345cf\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Now the Fed has begun scaling back support and US interest rates are likely to rise. Tech stocks, whose high prices are predicated on the potential for bumper future earnings, are seen as especially susceptible. “Every bull market has its geniuses who buy the hottest, most aggressive stocks and go up more than the market,” says a short seller who is on the opposite side of many of Wood’s trades. “But the downside of this stuff is just as spectacular as the upside. We saw this in the dotcom era.”</p><p>Many investors see parallels with the late-1990s in today’s growth-over-profits mentality and perceived invincibility of tech companies. Back then, the internet boom was followed by the stock market crash of 2000, and the subsequent downturn wiped almost four-fifths off the value of the technology-heavy Nasdaq index.</p><p>The bust made cautionary tales of fund managers such as Garrett Van Wagoner and Alberto Vilar, once hailed for their golden touch. “Cathie’s a boom or bust investor because she doesn’t disinvest or risk manage,” says Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Wood’s former boss at asset manager AllianceBernstein. “This is the challenge that she has had for her entire career.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c68be02b631e3d3d35fbfc2b9a76dab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Clockwise from far right: Wood ringing the bell with her mentor economist Arthur Laffer; in conversation with Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey; Ark’s use of social media helped drive its success; Wood speaking at a conference in Brooklyn  © ARK INVEST/TWITTER; Alex Flynn/Bloomberg; ARK INVEST; ARK INVEST/YOUTUBE</span></p><p>None of which seems to have dampened Wood’s conviction. “We’re at our best when the odds are against us,” she says. “For compliance reasons, I’ve been asked not to give numbers, but the compound annual rate of return expectation that we have during the next five years is the largest I have ever seen in my career.” When critics say she is nothing more than a product of the zeitgeist, Wood responds that her whole career has been about learning to ignore what’s current. And that though her thesis is simple – the future of investing is investing in the future – she’s spent a lifetime coming to it.</p><hr/><p><b>On November 25, I board a plane</b> heading for Nashville, Tennessee, for an audience with Arthur Laffer, the sprightly octogenarian economist who claims credit for President Ronald Reagan’s 1981 tax cuts. A few hours later, my taxi pulls up to a pink Spanish colonial house in a leafy suburb. Laffer answers the door himself, but I barely have a chance to shake his hand before four dogs of varying sizes come bounding towards me.</p><p>Laffer is best known for popularising the Laffer Curve, which he is said to have drawn on a napkin for Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney in 1974 when they worked in the Ford administration, to illustrate his argument that lower rates would boost tax revenues. My motivation for seeking him out is his decades-long mentorship of Wood. When ARKK listed on the New York Stock Exchange in October 2014, Laffer was there with her to ring the bell. Wood was one of the people Laffer invited to accompany him to the Oval Office when Donald Trump awarded him with the Presidential Medal of Freedom three years ago. (Wood supported Trump for president and donated to his campaign.)</p><p>Laffer is warm and welcoming as he ushers me past the dining room, where a long table is laid for Thanksgiving dinner, and into the kitchen. He prepares mugs of tea and plates of sushi, before leading me into the sitting room. Which is how I find myself sinking into a large leather armchair while I receive a whistle-stop tour of supply-side economics from a man who has made studying taxation and incentives his life’s work.</p><p>Framed photographs of assorted Kennedys, Thatchers, Reagans and Laffers look down upon me, surrounded by the four dogs (two Cane Corsos, a Great Dane and a Peek-A-Pom – that’s a Pekingese Pomeranian), who are now asleep. Several times, we are interrupted by calls from one of Laffer’s six children and 13 grandchildren. “Happy Turkey Day to you, my darling. I’m just sitting here with a reporter from the Financial Times. Can I call you back?”</p><p>About an hour in, as Laffer is praising Tennessee’s low-tax regime, which has lured companies such as AllianceBernstein, the mention of Wood’s former employer provides a natural segue. Laffer tells me about their first encounter in 1976 at the University of Southern California, when Wood was a student and he was a professor of business economics. Despite being an undergraduate, she lobbied him to let her into his graduate-level economics class until Laffer relented.</p><p>Wood got off to a rough start. “At the midterm, she did very poorly,” Laffer recalls. He says it was common at the time for students to cry in his class or drop out altogether as a consequence of its difficulty. “She didn’t do that. She said, ‘So what do I have to do to get better?’ And she did get better. Cathie works harder than anyone I know. She always has.”</p><p>Laffer often started his classes with a joke or some bit of relatable news to draw students in. By the time a seminar ended, the blackboard was a scrawl of equations and calculations. “We didn’t know what hit us,” Wood says. She calls Laffer’s ability to combine storytelling and hard data “a gift”.</p><p>Cathie Duddy was born in Los Angeles, the eldest of four children. Her parents were Irish immigrants who had come separately to the US “with great dreams of making it” and met at a dance in New Jersey. She credits her father, a radar systems engineer, first in the Irish Army and then the United States Air Force, with encouraging an interest in technology and economics. “It was the dawn of the electronic age, as he used to tell me quite frequently, and he was passionate about that,” says Wood. “It was also his ticket to a good life.” She describes her mother as “the laughter in our lives”.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96769edf81b0e8f093f366df25b553dc\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>‘We’re at our best when the odds are against us,’ Wood tells the FT</span></p><p>Before Wood graduated from USC, Laffer introduced her to Los Angeles-based asset manager Capital Group. She worked at Capital for three years as an assistant economist before moving to New York in 1980 to join asset manager Jennison Associates, where she was hired as its chief economist. She was 24. “Cathie turned out to be better and smarter than all the famous economists of that time,” says Spiros “Sig” Segalas, a former US Navy officer and Jennison’s co-founder and chief investment officer. “I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.”</p><p>At the time Wood joined Jennison, the US was experiencing severe inflation and interest rates were in the double digits. “She believed very strongly in deflation…and she was right,” says Segalas, who became another mentor. He knew many tech industry pioneers, including HP’s founders Bill Hewlett and David Packard and Intel co-founder Gordon Moore.</p><p>“Sig knew – talk about the dawn of the electronic age – he knew the people that made that happen,” says Wood. “He imbued me with the notion that technology solves problems and innovation is key to growth, that you can’t just look at earnings. You have to look at revenues. Revenue growth consistently over time means companies have to innovate, or else someone will steal a march from them.”</p><p>Around 1982, Wood wanted to resign to work for Laffer. “Do you really want to be Art Laffer’s disciple for the rest of your career?” Segalas quipped and talked her into staying. By this point, Wood was looking to move from economics into equity research and money management. Segalas had no problem with this in theory, but he was loath to take stocks away from analysts who were already covering them. So Wood waited around for what she called “fall through the cracks” companies that didn’t fit into neat categories and that other analysts didn’t want to cover.</p><p>Reuters, the database publishing company, was one example. Technology analysts felt it was a publishing company, and publishing analysts felt it was a tech company. Wood volunteered to cover it, and what was then called database publishing turned out to be the precursor to the internet. She says the experience taught her to investigate areas that others have dismissed.</p><p>She worked at Jennison for almost two decades, during which she married Robert Remington Wood and they had three children. Wood speaks fondly of this period of her career, of learning to “put the pieces of the puzzle together about how the world is going to work, not how it has worked”. She also learnt the value of diversity. “Sig has given so many women in our business their big breaks,” she says. “He really believes what a lot of women’s groups are saying and studies have shown that when you add diversity, you get better investment results.”</p><p>In 1995, Wood and her husband moved from New York to Connecticut. Robert, who had studied English literature and worked stints in institutional sales in the financial services industry, wanted to concentrate on his writing. “I said… if we move out to the hinterlands, to this wonderful place to raise children, one of us has to stay at home,” Wood recalls, “and I’m not going to be the one. So that’s what we did.” Two of his plays were produced off Broadway, including The Bridge in Scarsdale in 2002. The couple eventually divorced in 2003, and Robert died of cancer in 2018. Before he did, Wood welcomed him back into the house so the family could be together.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e8b2b582c998fa762a9b331c40ad5f\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1998, as the dotcom bubble was reaching its climax, Wood and one of her colleagues, Lulu Wang, left Jennison to set up a fund in New York called Tupelo Capital Management. By the end of March 2000, the peak of the tech bubble, Tupelo’s assets under management had reached almost $1.4bn, according to a regulatory filing. Twelve months later, Tupelo’s assets had slumped to around $200mn, according to a separate regulatory filing.</p><p>In other words, Tupelo’s assets under management lost over four-fifths of their value during the dotcom crash. It’s not possible to establish how much of this was due to performance losses and how much to investors pulling their cash. Wood says, “While we disagreed about strategic moves at the end of my tenure, we parted ways with mutual respect.” Wang declined to comment.</p><p>Wood dusted herself off and joined AllianceBernstein later that year as chief investment officer for thematic portfolios. Lisa Shalett, her boss at the time, recalls her “first memory of Cathie is of a whirling dervish running around in a trench coat weighed down by bags and bags of research. You would see her early in the morning or running from the office late at night to catch the train.”</p><p>But Wood’s track record at AllianceBernstein was both volatile and underwhelming, according to Morningstar. Shalett says that Wood’s investing style was a “rollercoaster ride” for clients and that it found greater traction with retail investors than with the institutional market. Even so, Wood continued to display the same conviction Segalas had admired at Jennison. “She is disciplined and missionary in her approach. She’s an evangelist for tech, and it’s infectious,” says Shalett. “We all love a great story. She does her research; she believes what she believes. Sometimes when the market moves against her, she digs in more.”</p><hr/><p><b>On a glorious August day in 2012,</b> Wood returned home from work to an uncharacteristically quiet house. Her three children were at summer camp, and it was the first time she’d been alone that long since she moved to Connecticut in the mid-1990s. “I’m kind of stunned by the silence,” Wood recounts. “I walk into the kitchen to the counter. And I’m not happy, and I’m not sad. I’m just in that zen state.</p><p>“Boom. That’s when it hit me. Why don’t you apply the technologies that have been disrupting other industries to your own? Think about it: your industry finances all of these disruptions that have changed other industries, and it hasn’t embraced them itself.” Within five minutes, the key foundations of what would become Ark’s approach came to her: adopting open source research, embracing online media, investing in innovation.</p><p>Wood tells me the epiphany marked the culmination of six years of prayer. From about 2006, she had struggled to make sense of the changing financial landscape. On the advice of someone at her church, Walnut Hill Community Church, Wood had spent each morning reading from a devotional as her coffee was brewing, asking God to “show me what to do”. When it all came together, she knew “I had to start this firm, and I knew it would be successful. I knew it would be difficult too.”</p><p>Wood believes she was “born with the gift of faith”, and it deepened through testing times like the stock market crashes in 2000 and 2008 and her divorce, she told an interviewer in 2020 on Jesus Calling, a podcast. When we discuss her religious practices, Wood chooses her words carefully. “Before I make a big move, I will always pray,” she says. “Prayer is a form of meditation too. It’s a very grounding experience. People who meditate deeply experience the same thing I do. And in those moments, I get answers… The holy spirit, if you want to just dwell on that, is the same thing as the Force.”</p><p>Initially, Wood approached Peter Kraus, then chair and chief executive of AllianceBernstein, with her unorthodox pitch: she wanted to launch an actively managed ETF business devoted to disruptive and innovative companies. At the time, the ETF industry was dominated by passive funds that tracked an index such as the S&amp;P 500 and was run by players like BlackRock, Vanguard Group and State Street Global Advisors. “I said no,” Kraus, who is now chair and chief executive of asset manager Aperture Investors, tells me, “because it didn’t seem like a high probability it would succeed. It was not because I didn’t like her. I don’t regret it.”</p><p>Laffer also had doubts. “I talked with her at enormous length when she was going to set up Ark,” he says. “She weighed my advice and then went the other way.” Laffer worried about Wood giving up a stable job to start up in a fledgling part of the market and putting too much of her own money into Ark. “I did not want her to lose everything she had.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fe2bfe30d97901ecb7cf1f3aefdd77\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In January 2014, Wood founded Ark. For the first three years, she funded the business with her own money. (She rewarded Laffer with a small stake in Ark Invest, of less than 1 per cent.) Wood received an early investment of around $20mn for her first four ETFs from former hedge fund manager Bill Hwang, whom she met when they were both advisers to a religious group that ministers to young people on Wall Street. Hwang is now infamous for the implosion in March 2021 of his family office, Archegos Capital Management. A person with knowledge of the matter says Hwang admired Wood’s expertise in growth stocks, but that the investment in Ark was a show of support, rather than strategic. Hwang declined to comment for this article.</p><p>For its first two years, Ark built but the clients failed to come. So Wood sold minority stakes and signed deals to help sell her funds. First to Resolute Investment Managers, an asset management platform and distributor, in 2016 and, the following year, to Japan’s Nikko Asset Management. It would take the pandemic – and a big and prescient bet on Tesla – to turn Wood into a star.</p><p>In October 2020, as Ark’s performance was riding high, Resolute said it intended to exercise an option to buy a majority stake in the company. Wood pushed back. One former Ark employee tells me that, during this period, Wood was convinced she would regain control of the company even when colleagues thought it was highly unlikely. Wood turned to Todd Boehly, founder of Eldridge Industries, a holding company that makes investments, to lend Ark the funds to repurchase Resolute’s option and later reward Ark’s top employees with a share of the business.</p><p>The former employee says Wood “feels very much on a journey doing God’s work. She’s moved by forces beyond the asset management game. She has confidence from her craft, but also she feels like she’s on the right side of… I don’t know what to call it. It gives her energy and strength. The God element is more a guide of her life path. God is not telling her to buy or sell shares.”</p><p>Under the terms of the 2020 deal, Resolute remained Ark’s main distribution partner in the US, and Wood remained its majority shareholder. She was more personally exposed than ever. Resolute sold at what would turn out to be the top of the market. And when 2021 arrived, Ark’s performance began to unravel.</p><hr/><p>The town of Bethel is named after a Hebrew word meaning “house of God”. Unlike Connecticut’s Gold Coast, where prominent financiers like hedge fund manager Ray Dalio own expensive waterfront properties overlooking the Long Island Sound, the sleepy inland streets here are lined with traditional New England timber-framed saltbox houses. Many of them are flying the Stars and Stripes. I’m here to attend a morning service at Walnut Hill, where Wood was an active member of the congregation until she moved to Florida last year.</p><p>Walnut Hill is a nondenominational, evangelical megachurch, with four campuses across the state. Its purpose is “igniting a passion for Jesus in Connecticut, New England and around the world”, according to its website. In the vast entrance hall of the Bethel Campus, a sign hangs above the door reading “Go bring heaven to earth!”</p><p>As I wait for the service to begin, I track down Reverend Brian Mowrey, one of Walnut Hill’s lead pastors. Wood has been coming here for more than a decade and has “been very engaged in life here”, Mowrey tells me. “She has a unique gift of being a futurist, very discerning of where things are going in our world, a great sensitivity to how God is moving and speaking.” He won’t say whether he’s an investor in Ark.</p><p>We make our way to the darkened auditorium for the service, picking up our own individually packaged Eucharist on the way in. The lingering pandemic also means that the hall, which has capacity for hundreds of people, is far from full. Everything is broadcast online. The service is accompanied by a live band, and today’s theme for the homily is “Developing a Heavenly Mindset”.</p><p>Afterwards, I’m standing in the church car park waiting for a friend to come and collect me, when a retired couple, John and Rita DePasquale, strike up a conversation. They have noticed me looking a bit lost. John, 76, who used to work in promotions and consumer packaging, says he came to his faith in his early thirties. “I was burning the candle at both ends, and then I found another way, a spiritual way.” He met Wood through the church but says he’s had “very little” interaction with her. He did, however, become an investor in Ark, following a recommendation from one of its clients: DePasquale’s son, Reverend Adam DePasquale, another of the lead pastors at Walnut Hill.</p><p>The elder DePasquale says that, normally, his investment criteria include being a well-known company that’s a leader in its field and paying a consistent dividend. Still, Ark piqued his interest enough that he made a roughly $12,000 investment towards the end of 2020, when ARKK was trading at around $120. “The things she’s invested in made a lot of sense,” DePasquale says. “I got a sense that she sees paradigm shifts taking place – a gift.”</p><p>Three months later, I check in with DePasquale to find out how he’s feeling about his investment, which is now down 40 per cent. He says he doesn’t have “any desire to bail out” or any financial need to sell right now. “I’ll wait. I have faith that it will come back, and she’ll turn it around. I think she has the right attitude towards innovation… I don’t want to buy high and sell low. That’s not a remedy to make money.”</p><p>As our telephone call draws to a close, DePasquale asks if I would mind if he prayed for me. Not at all, I respond, assuming he means later on, privately. “Dear God,” he starts saying into the other end of the line, “thank you for Harriet and how she has used her skills and passion to seek wisdom… May you bless and protect her.”</p><hr/><p>In February 2019, Tesla’s stock was trading at around $60. Ark, which holds a significant position in the electric carmaker, was bullish on its prospects, estimating that its share price could reach $3,000 by 2025. Wood was in a meeting room at the firm’s New York offices when she heard screams and laughter from her colleagues outside. She went out to find that Tesla chief executive Elon Musk had sent a direct Twitter message to Tasha Keeney, an Ark analyst, complimenting her on her work. Later, Musk joined Wood and Keeney on Ark’s regular FYI - For Your Innovation podcast. When I contact Musk via email about this story, he shoots back a single sentence: “Cathie and the Ark team think deeply about the future and are mostly correct. — EM”.</p><p>Ark’s ability to speak in the emoji-laden, highly referential language of the meme stock generation is one example of what Ark means when it markets itself as an “untraditional investment manager”. Another is atypical hiring. The company has fewer than 50 employees, including around 20 in research and investing. Wood has surrounded herself with a team of young analysts, with backgrounds in subjects such as computer engineering or molecular biology, rather than a traditional grounding in finance. She says this is the best way to identify disruptive trends and to avoid consensus thinking. “I really believe that young people are at an advantage,” she says, because they “have one foot in the new world” and are native to certain parts of the market such as cryptocurrencies.</p><p>Wood says the active management industry is dominated by short-term thinking and index trackers that avoid taking big bets and have high position overlap with their peers. Fear of the new, in other words. Ark set out to have a portfolio that has little overlap with the Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500. “The old world order describes [Ark] as highly speculative, highly risky and these other disparaging words,” she says. “Whereas what we are saying is, ‘No, you are in harm’s way. You are taking a risk by not doing the kind of research we’re doing.’”</p><p>Closely guarded proprietary research is the norm in the mainstream asset management industry. But Ark publishes all its research and stock price targets online; it also discloses its positions and trades, which one critic says amounts to “playing poker with their cards faced up”. This practice certainly makes it easy to follow Wood. Unaffiliated websites, such as Cathiesark.com, publish the positions, trades and weight of all companies in Ark’s stable of ETFs daily. An entire ecosystem of copycat and related products have sprung up around Wood’s funds as a result.</p><p>This includes products that allow investors to magnify their exposure to Ark’s ETFs – or to directly wager against them. Last November, Tuttle Capital Management unveiled the Nasdaq-listed Tuttle Short Innovation ETF (ticker: SARK), which gives investors the ability to bet against Wood’s ARKK. Since launching, SARK has grown from $5mn to $325mn in assets under management and is up 24 per cent this year. “Some people are using it as an anti-Cathie Wood bet,” says chief executive Matthew Tuttle, while others are using it as a hedge against their exposure to growth stocks at a time when interest rates and inflation are rising.</p><p>Some people see flaws in Ark’s business model. Edwin Dorsey,a short seller and author of the Bear Cave newsletter, has criticised the team’s lack of experience. For example, Ark’s chief operating officer, Tom Staudt, who is in charge of its risk management, is a former account executive at a television station in Michigan. “At Ark you get out-of-the-box thinkers from non-traditional backgrounds,” says Dorsey. “But it relies a lot on young analysts who might be in over their skis.” He believes that Ark’s research is good at identifying technological trends, but he doesn’t “think it’s that rigorous when it comes to selecting individual stocks”.</p><p>That can mean missing red flags that ought to have come up during due diligence. Dorsey says examples among Ark’s current or previous investments include: German payments company Wirecard, which collapsed into insolvency in June last year, following a multiyear fraud exposed by the FT; and, Vuzix, an augmented reality glasses company in which Ark owns more than 10 per cent, which has a history of consistent unprofitability, a short seller lawsuit and an informal enquiry by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p>The validity of Ark’s financial models and headline-making predictions has also come into question. At least two people reckon they found erroneous judgments in the company’s publicly released valuation model for Tesla. These errors, they believe, contribute to an overestimation of what the electric carmaker could be worth. Some of Wood’s public predictions strain credulity. Notably in a 2018 video, she declared “monogenic stem cell therapy” a $2tn revenue opportunity, with “polygenic” versions of the treatment worth “however many trillions” more. Monogenic stem cell therapy is not a concept scientists recognise. Wood says Ark’s research on innovation is “the best in the financial world.”</p><p>And then there’s Ark’s footprint in the marketplace. When it buys and sells positions in smaller, less frequently traded companies typical of the innovation space, Ark can have an outsized impact on their share price because these types of positions are less liquid than blue chips like Tesla and Zoom. (Across its ETFs, Ark owns stakes of more than 5 per cent in 37 companies, and owns more than 10 per cent of 18 of these companies, according to Morningstar.)</p><p>“As Ark has been buying these small-cap companies, it has been pushing their share prices up,” says Dan Izzo, chief executive of GHCO, a registered market maker. “It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy on the way up.” Crucially, he notes, this works both ways. “If redemptions made Ark a forced seller of illiquid names then it could push down their share prices.” This could result in a downward spiral for Ark.</p><hr/><p>For all Ark’s talk of transparency, it takes more than four months before Wood finally agrees to an interview. By this point, it’s mid-February and ARKK has halved from its peak the year before. The short sellers are being vindicated. Wood pops on to my laptop screen, instantly recognisable by her trademark horn-rimmed glasses and poker straight hair. She looks smart in a striped shirt, dark highlights framing her high cheekbones and perfect white teeth. “We are as calm and focused as you could possibly imagine,” she says. Despite the market turmoil and the mounting losses in her portfolios she sleeps “very easily” at night, “knowing that we have never been in a period of more innovation in history”.</p><p>There’s one exception: the prospect of investors pulling their money from Ark’s fund at the worst possible moment. If clients do so now, Wood says they will turn “what we believe are temporary losses into permanent losses. What’s going to happen is the same thing that happened in 2008-2009. Those who got out had such seller’s remorse” because they missed the subsequent market rebound.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c548b284747c1e69422ed48331632d7a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"1050\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>‘The old world order describes [Ark] as highly speculative, highly risky and these other disparaging words,’ Wood says. ‘Whereas what we are saying is, “No, you are in harm’s way. You are taking a risk by not doing the kind of research we’re doing”’</span></p><p>We take the big controversies facing Wood and Ark one at a time.</p><p>Critics have suggested that the firm’s transparency makes it vulnerable to front-running. If the market can see everything Ark is doing, traders could use that information to try to get ahead of it. This is especially a risk in a downward market. If Ark, for example, had to sell positions to meet redemptions, other investors could see that and sell off first, pushing down prices even more. Wood dismisses this. “It’s very hard to front-run us,” she says, adding that if she sees the price of a stock that Ark is buying starting to move up dramatically, she halts the order. The same thing happens on the way down. “We can stop the sale if [they’re] driving a stock down because they know we’re just going to be selling, selling, selling. I can stop it if I want to.”</p><p>Wood is more philosophical about the short sellers: “Well, that’s what makes a market. And if we’re right, they’re going to have to cover all of their shorts, and that’ll help with the swoosh when it happens. And I truly do believe it will.” She says she does not take the existence of SARK and others like it personally. “They’re not doing any research. That’s why that strategy is not going to work in the long run. It’ll work from time to time when we’re in risk-off periods.”</p><p>Ark allows investors to redeem their money on a daily basis; the risk in a downturn such as this one is that they pull out in droves. But Ark’s asset retention has been better than expected, says Wood. She believes this is a result of Ark’s communications strategy. “We overcommunicate. We are constantly putting out research. We are tweeting to let our clients know nothing has changed from our point of view.”</p><p>She believes that “this has helped our clients trust us” and keep their Ark investment. Tuttle agrees: “ARKK has not had as many outflows as you’d expect, given the returns.” But he thinks it’s because “retail investors have been conditioned to ‘buy the dip’ in growth stocks”, a strategy that has worked since 2009. “At some point there’s a level where everything starts to waver,” he adds, “I just don’t know where that is.”</p><p>An important element of Wood’s vision — and one of the drivers of her seemingly boundless optimism — is that the deflationary trend of recent decades and generally low interest rates will continue: technological innovation suppresses costs, while companies whose products are being rendered obsolete will have to cut prices. “Many people think we have a permanent inflation problem,” she says. “We don’t.” If anything she believes that problems that emerged during the pandemic “are accelerating the rate at which innovation is taking place”.</p><p>But Wood is fighting against the tide of central banks. Jennison’s Segalas says: “The problem right now is that interest rates are going up, and that tends to hurt valuations, particularly of growth companies with no current earnings power. A lot will depend on what happens to inflation and interest rates as to when her strategy is going to work.” He adds: “Eventually I think she’ll be right, but I don’t know how long that takes.” Eldridge’s Boehly says, “Ark has low fixed costs, very modest leverage and substantial liquidity, which allows it to ride out market volatility.”</p><p>The challenge for Wood is that she may be correct in identifying the big trends in innovation but back the wrong companies. Even if her bets are right in the long term, Ark’s losses in the short term could wipe it out. To paraphrase Keynes, the stock market can remain irrational longer than many fund managers can stay solvent.</p><p>Wood has clearly pondered the question of longevity. “Many people in our business… they’d be quite happy to see us disappear,” she says. Repeatedly during our conversation she refers to herself as a “lightning rod” for the industry. To these critics, Wood represents the worst aspects of a frothy market, the gate-crashing of low-information retail investors and the triumph of a good story over hard data. None of which can end soon enough. For her retail following, she represents a middle finger to all of that. Fans want to believe her stories of a better, brighter future filled with flying cars, green energy and longer, healthier lives.</p><p>But as the interview draws to a close, Wood is keen to make one last, important point. When it comes to Ark’s investments, “the courage of my conviction” is not the result of any higher calling. It “comes from our research”, she says. “I just want to make that very clear.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1580170736413","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Didn’t Come This Far to Quit Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Didn’t Come This Far to Quit Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-03 19:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ft.com/content/a93f4de2-35d2-44e1-a6a1-0000cba0dd4d><strong> Financial Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A year ago, she managed more than $60bn. Now she faces the toughest battle of her careerCathie Wood’s favourite scripture is Psalm 91, the hymn of protection. The founder of Ark Invest starts telling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a93f4de2-35d2-44e1-a6a1-0000cba0dd4d\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/a93f4de2-35d2-44e1-a6a1-0000cba0dd4d","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191803969","content_text":"A year ago, she managed more than $60bn. Now she faces the toughest battle of her careerCathie Wood’s favourite scripture is Psalm 91, the hymn of protection. The founder of Ark Invest starts telling me the story of the Miracle of Dunkirk, when Allied soldiers were rescued from doomed French beaches in 1940. “A group of soldiers were huddled saying Psalm 91,” she says, “and they were one of the few groups of soldiers saved on that day.”Wood’s eight-year-old investment management firm is named after the Ark of the Covenant – the chest said to have held the Ten Commandments – which was taken by the Israelites into battle. “Ark also has to do with battle,” Wood continues. “Battling the traditional world order is what we’re doing.”In less than a decade, Wood has emerged as the public face of a tech-driven bull market on steroids. She championed actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a type of investment that combines the stock-picking normally associated with mutual funds with the convenience and tax benefits of ETFs.Her big, concentrated bets on “disruptive innovation”, borderline outlandish predictions on everything from shares in electric carmaker Tesla to the price of bitcoin and her savvy use of social media helped to drive assets in Ark’s overall stable of ETFs to a value of $61bn at their peak in February last year, making her the most prominent and scrutinised female investor in the world.Ark rose during a period characterised by retail trading, meme stocks and surging cryptocurrencies, with thousands of punters opening new brokerage accounts online and using Twitter and Reddit to exchange investing ideas. By freely sharing Ark’s research, Wood developed a cult following online, where to her disciples she is “Auntie Cathie” or “Cathie Bae” and where she has spawned a range of merchandise, including a T-shirt that depicts her riding a bull with the slogan “The Queen of the bull market”. Another just reads “In Cathie We Trust”.Wood has fans at the highest level of finance as well. “Regardless of performance trends, it’s clear that Cathie is disrupting the asset management industry in order to capture the imagination of a new generation of investors,” says Katie Koch, a partner at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “She has demonstrated great respect for the retail investor by democratising access to information.” A top investor in growth companies tells me, “I admire Cathie’s spirit and willingness to put her head above the parapet.”At the moment, though, Wood is in the toughest battle of her career. The 66-year-old is fighting against market momentum and trying to halt huge losses and outflows. Assets in Ark’s overall stable of thematic exchange-traded funds have dropped to $23.1bn since its 2021 high. Its flagship Ark Disruptive Innovation ETF, stock market ticker ARKK, has more than halved in value in the same period, during which time every single one of the fund’s 36 stocks has dropped. During the same period, the Nasdaq fell about 2.4 per cent.The cover of FT Magazine, March 6/7On the face of it, ARKK boasts a stellar long-term track record: it has made an average of 38 per cent a year over the past five years, boosted by eye-watering gains of 157 per cent in 2020 as the pandemic turbocharged investor excitement about the technologies that underpin its portfolios – DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence and the blockchain. Ark’s returns “sit in very rarefied air”, says Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research at data provider Morningstar. But most of its longer-term returns came when it had a much smaller asset base, meaning that “most investors in Ark’s funds are underwater”.Critics – and there are a lot of them – argue that Wood’s success owes more to the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy than to her investment research or stock-picking prowess. Her quasi-prophetic certainty about the future is detached from reality, they argue, and Ark’s performance has been inflated by pouring money into thinly traded stocks.“She’s brought a lot of attention to the concept of innovation, which is great,” says a prominent venture capitalist. “But the difficulty she has is that she believes in stories. Sometimes you have to disassociate the story from the business model and the valuation.” A top executive at a multitrillion-dollar asset manager says: “She tells a whole story that’s almost impervious to facts.” And a New York-based hedge fund manager adds: “She may be right in the long run, we just don’t know who the survivors will be in all of these industries. And the valuations are crazy.”Since the beginning of this year, sentiment has been turning against the more speculative part of the market in which Ark operates, and the Russia-Ukraine war has further roiled global markets. Waves of monetary stimulus during the pandemic helped gloss over the risks of investing in the types of hot, fast-growing and loss-making tech companies Wood favours.Now the Fed has begun scaling back support and US interest rates are likely to rise. Tech stocks, whose high prices are predicated on the potential for bumper future earnings, are seen as especially susceptible. “Every bull market has its geniuses who buy the hottest, most aggressive stocks and go up more than the market,” says a short seller who is on the opposite side of many of Wood’s trades. “But the downside of this stuff is just as spectacular as the upside. We saw this in the dotcom era.”Many investors see parallels with the late-1990s in today’s growth-over-profits mentality and perceived invincibility of tech companies. Back then, the internet boom was followed by the stock market crash of 2000, and the subsequent downturn wiped almost four-fifths off the value of the technology-heavy Nasdaq index.The bust made cautionary tales of fund managers such as Garrett Van Wagoner and Alberto Vilar, once hailed for their golden touch. “Cathie’s a boom or bust investor because she doesn’t disinvest or risk manage,” says Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Wood’s former boss at asset manager AllianceBernstein. “This is the challenge that she has had for her entire career.”Clockwise from far right: Wood ringing the bell with her mentor economist Arthur Laffer; in conversation with Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey; Ark’s use of social media helped drive its success; Wood speaking at a conference in Brooklyn  © ARK INVEST/TWITTER; Alex Flynn/Bloomberg; ARK INVEST; ARK INVEST/YOUTUBENone of which seems to have dampened Wood’s conviction. “We’re at our best when the odds are against us,” she says. “For compliance reasons, I’ve been asked not to give numbers, but the compound annual rate of return expectation that we have during the next five years is the largest I have ever seen in my career.” When critics say she is nothing more than a product of the zeitgeist, Wood responds that her whole career has been about learning to ignore what’s current. And that though her thesis is simple – the future of investing is investing in the future – she’s spent a lifetime coming to it.On November 25, I board a plane heading for Nashville, Tennessee, for an audience with Arthur Laffer, the sprightly octogenarian economist who claims credit for President Ronald Reagan’s 1981 tax cuts. A few hours later, my taxi pulls up to a pink Spanish colonial house in a leafy suburb. Laffer answers the door himself, but I barely have a chance to shake his hand before four dogs of varying sizes come bounding towards me.Laffer is best known for popularising the Laffer Curve, which he is said to have drawn on a napkin for Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney in 1974 when they worked in the Ford administration, to illustrate his argument that lower rates would boost tax revenues. My motivation for seeking him out is his decades-long mentorship of Wood. When ARKK listed on the New York Stock Exchange in October 2014, Laffer was there with her to ring the bell. Wood was one of the people Laffer invited to accompany him to the Oval Office when Donald Trump awarded him with the Presidential Medal of Freedom three years ago. (Wood supported Trump for president and donated to his campaign.)Laffer is warm and welcoming as he ushers me past the dining room, where a long table is laid for Thanksgiving dinner, and into the kitchen. He prepares mugs of tea and plates of sushi, before leading me into the sitting room. Which is how I find myself sinking into a large leather armchair while I receive a whistle-stop tour of supply-side economics from a man who has made studying taxation and incentives his life’s work.Framed photographs of assorted Kennedys, Thatchers, Reagans and Laffers look down upon me, surrounded by the four dogs (two Cane Corsos, a Great Dane and a Peek-A-Pom – that’s a Pekingese Pomeranian), who are now asleep. Several times, we are interrupted by calls from one of Laffer’s six children and 13 grandchildren. “Happy Turkey Day to you, my darling. I’m just sitting here with a reporter from the Financial Times. Can I call you back?”About an hour in, as Laffer is praising Tennessee’s low-tax regime, which has lured companies such as AllianceBernstein, the mention of Wood’s former employer provides a natural segue. Laffer tells me about their first encounter in 1976 at the University of Southern California, when Wood was a student and he was a professor of business economics. Despite being an undergraduate, she lobbied him to let her into his graduate-level economics class until Laffer relented.Wood got off to a rough start. “At the midterm, she did very poorly,” Laffer recalls. He says it was common at the time for students to cry in his class or drop out altogether as a consequence of its difficulty. “She didn’t do that. She said, ‘So what do I have to do to get better?’ And she did get better. Cathie works harder than anyone I know. She always has.”Laffer often started his classes with a joke or some bit of relatable news to draw students in. By the time a seminar ended, the blackboard was a scrawl of equations and calculations. “We didn’t know what hit us,” Wood says. She calls Laffer’s ability to combine storytelling and hard data “a gift”.Cathie Duddy was born in Los Angeles, the eldest of four children. Her parents were Irish immigrants who had come separately to the US “with great dreams of making it” and met at a dance in New Jersey. She credits her father, a radar systems engineer, first in the Irish Army and then the United States Air Force, with encouraging an interest in technology and economics. “It was the dawn of the electronic age, as he used to tell me quite frequently, and he was passionate about that,” says Wood. “It was also his ticket to a good life.” She describes her mother as “the laughter in our lives”.‘We’re at our best when the odds are against us,’ Wood tells the FTBefore Wood graduated from USC, Laffer introduced her to Los Angeles-based asset manager Capital Group. She worked at Capital for three years as an assistant economist before moving to New York in 1980 to join asset manager Jennison Associates, where she was hired as its chief economist. She was 24. “Cathie turned out to be better and smarter than all the famous economists of that time,” says Spiros “Sig” Segalas, a former US Navy officer and Jennison’s co-founder and chief investment officer. “I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.”At the time Wood joined Jennison, the US was experiencing severe inflation and interest rates were in the double digits. “She believed very strongly in deflation…and she was right,” says Segalas, who became another mentor. He knew many tech industry pioneers, including HP’s founders Bill Hewlett and David Packard and Intel co-founder Gordon Moore.“Sig knew – talk about the dawn of the electronic age – he knew the people that made that happen,” says Wood. “He imbued me with the notion that technology solves problems and innovation is key to growth, that you can’t just look at earnings. You have to look at revenues. Revenue growth consistently over time means companies have to innovate, or else someone will steal a march from them.”Around 1982, Wood wanted to resign to work for Laffer. “Do you really want to be Art Laffer’s disciple for the rest of your career?” Segalas quipped and talked her into staying. By this point, Wood was looking to move from economics into equity research and money management. Segalas had no problem with this in theory, but he was loath to take stocks away from analysts who were already covering them. So Wood waited around for what she called “fall through the cracks” companies that didn’t fit into neat categories and that other analysts didn’t want to cover.Reuters, the database publishing company, was one example. Technology analysts felt it was a publishing company, and publishing analysts felt it was a tech company. Wood volunteered to cover it, and what was then called database publishing turned out to be the precursor to the internet. She says the experience taught her to investigate areas that others have dismissed.She worked at Jennison for almost two decades, during which she married Robert Remington Wood and they had three children. Wood speaks fondly of this period of her career, of learning to “put the pieces of the puzzle together about how the world is going to work, not how it has worked”. She also learnt the value of diversity. “Sig has given so many women in our business their big breaks,” she says. “He really believes what a lot of women’s groups are saying and studies have shown that when you add diversity, you get better investment results.”In 1995, Wood and her husband moved from New York to Connecticut. Robert, who had studied English literature and worked stints in institutional sales in the financial services industry, wanted to concentrate on his writing. “I said… if we move out to the hinterlands, to this wonderful place to raise children, one of us has to stay at home,” Wood recalls, “and I’m not going to be the one. So that’s what we did.” Two of his plays were produced off Broadway, including The Bridge in Scarsdale in 2002. The couple eventually divorced in 2003, and Robert died of cancer in 2018. Before he did, Wood welcomed him back into the house so the family could be together.In 1998, as the dotcom bubble was reaching its climax, Wood and one of her colleagues, Lulu Wang, left Jennison to set up a fund in New York called Tupelo Capital Management. By the end of March 2000, the peak of the tech bubble, Tupelo’s assets under management had reached almost $1.4bn, according to a regulatory filing. Twelve months later, Tupelo’s assets had slumped to around $200mn, according to a separate regulatory filing.In other words, Tupelo’s assets under management lost over four-fifths of their value during the dotcom crash. It’s not possible to establish how much of this was due to performance losses and how much to investors pulling their cash. Wood says, “While we disagreed about strategic moves at the end of my tenure, we parted ways with mutual respect.” Wang declined to comment.Wood dusted herself off and joined AllianceBernstein later that year as chief investment officer for thematic portfolios. Lisa Shalett, her boss at the time, recalls her “first memory of Cathie is of a whirling dervish running around in a trench coat weighed down by bags and bags of research. You would see her early in the morning or running from the office late at night to catch the train.”But Wood’s track record at AllianceBernstein was both volatile and underwhelming, according to Morningstar. Shalett says that Wood’s investing style was a “rollercoaster ride” for clients and that it found greater traction with retail investors than with the institutional market. Even so, Wood continued to display the same conviction Segalas had admired at Jennison. “She is disciplined and missionary in her approach. She’s an evangelist for tech, and it’s infectious,” says Shalett. “We all love a great story. She does her research; she believes what she believes. Sometimes when the market moves against her, she digs in more.”On a glorious August day in 2012, Wood returned home from work to an uncharacteristically quiet house. Her three children were at summer camp, and it was the first time she’d been alone that long since she moved to Connecticut in the mid-1990s. “I’m kind of stunned by the silence,” Wood recounts. “I walk into the kitchen to the counter. And I’m not happy, and I’m not sad. I’m just in that zen state.“Boom. That’s when it hit me. Why don’t you apply the technologies that have been disrupting other industries to your own? Think about it: your industry finances all of these disruptions that have changed other industries, and it hasn’t embraced them itself.” Within five minutes, the key foundations of what would become Ark’s approach came to her: adopting open source research, embracing online media, investing in innovation.Wood tells me the epiphany marked the culmination of six years of prayer. From about 2006, she had struggled to make sense of the changing financial landscape. On the advice of someone at her church, Walnut Hill Community Church, Wood had spent each morning reading from a devotional as her coffee was brewing, asking God to “show me what to do”. When it all came together, she knew “I had to start this firm, and I knew it would be successful. I knew it would be difficult too.”Wood believes she was “born with the gift of faith”, and it deepened through testing times like the stock market crashes in 2000 and 2008 and her divorce, she told an interviewer in 2020 on Jesus Calling, a podcast. When we discuss her religious practices, Wood chooses her words carefully. “Before I make a big move, I will always pray,” she says. “Prayer is a form of meditation too. It’s a very grounding experience. People who meditate deeply experience the same thing I do. And in those moments, I get answers… The holy spirit, if you want to just dwell on that, is the same thing as the Force.”Initially, Wood approached Peter Kraus, then chair and chief executive of AllianceBernstein, with her unorthodox pitch: she wanted to launch an actively managed ETF business devoted to disruptive and innovative companies. At the time, the ETF industry was dominated by passive funds that tracked an index such as the S&P 500 and was run by players like BlackRock, Vanguard Group and State Street Global Advisors. “I said no,” Kraus, who is now chair and chief executive of asset manager Aperture Investors, tells me, “because it didn’t seem like a high probability it would succeed. It was not because I didn’t like her. I don’t regret it.”Laffer also had doubts. “I talked with her at enormous length when she was going to set up Ark,” he says. “She weighed my advice and then went the other way.” Laffer worried about Wood giving up a stable job to start up in a fledgling part of the market and putting too much of her own money into Ark. “I did not want her to lose everything she had.”In January 2014, Wood founded Ark. For the first three years, she funded the business with her own money. (She rewarded Laffer with a small stake in Ark Invest, of less than 1 per cent.) Wood received an early investment of around $20mn for her first four ETFs from former hedge fund manager Bill Hwang, whom she met when they were both advisers to a religious group that ministers to young people on Wall Street. Hwang is now infamous for the implosion in March 2021 of his family office, Archegos Capital Management. A person with knowledge of the matter says Hwang admired Wood’s expertise in growth stocks, but that the investment in Ark was a show of support, rather than strategic. Hwang declined to comment for this article.For its first two years, Ark built but the clients failed to come. So Wood sold minority stakes and signed deals to help sell her funds. First to Resolute Investment Managers, an asset management platform and distributor, in 2016 and, the following year, to Japan’s Nikko Asset Management. It would take the pandemic – and a big and prescient bet on Tesla – to turn Wood into a star.In October 2020, as Ark’s performance was riding high, Resolute said it intended to exercise an option to buy a majority stake in the company. Wood pushed back. One former Ark employee tells me that, during this period, Wood was convinced she would regain control of the company even when colleagues thought it was highly unlikely. Wood turned to Todd Boehly, founder of Eldridge Industries, a holding company that makes investments, to lend Ark the funds to repurchase Resolute’s option and later reward Ark’s top employees with a share of the business.The former employee says Wood “feels very much on a journey doing God’s work. She’s moved by forces beyond the asset management game. She has confidence from her craft, but also she feels like she’s on the right side of… I don’t know what to call it. It gives her energy and strength. The God element is more a guide of her life path. God is not telling her to buy or sell shares.”Under the terms of the 2020 deal, Resolute remained Ark’s main distribution partner in the US, and Wood remained its majority shareholder. She was more personally exposed than ever. Resolute sold at what would turn out to be the top of the market. And when 2021 arrived, Ark’s performance began to unravel.The town of Bethel is named after a Hebrew word meaning “house of God”. Unlike Connecticut’s Gold Coast, where prominent financiers like hedge fund manager Ray Dalio own expensive waterfront properties overlooking the Long Island Sound, the sleepy inland streets here are lined with traditional New England timber-framed saltbox houses. Many of them are flying the Stars and Stripes. I’m here to attend a morning service at Walnut Hill, where Wood was an active member of the congregation until she moved to Florida last year.Walnut Hill is a nondenominational, evangelical megachurch, with four campuses across the state. Its purpose is “igniting a passion for Jesus in Connecticut, New England and around the world”, according to its website. In the vast entrance hall of the Bethel Campus, a sign hangs above the door reading “Go bring heaven to earth!”As I wait for the service to begin, I track down Reverend Brian Mowrey, one of Walnut Hill’s lead pastors. Wood has been coming here for more than a decade and has “been very engaged in life here”, Mowrey tells me. “She has a unique gift of being a futurist, very discerning of where things are going in our world, a great sensitivity to how God is moving and speaking.” He won’t say whether he’s an investor in Ark.We make our way to the darkened auditorium for the service, picking up our own individually packaged Eucharist on the way in. The lingering pandemic also means that the hall, which has capacity for hundreds of people, is far from full. Everything is broadcast online. The service is accompanied by a live band, and today’s theme for the homily is “Developing a Heavenly Mindset”.Afterwards, I’m standing in the church car park waiting for a friend to come and collect me, when a retired couple, John and Rita DePasquale, strike up a conversation. They have noticed me looking a bit lost. John, 76, who used to work in promotions and consumer packaging, says he came to his faith in his early thirties. “I was burning the candle at both ends, and then I found another way, a spiritual way.” He met Wood through the church but says he’s had “very little” interaction with her. He did, however, become an investor in Ark, following a recommendation from one of its clients: DePasquale’s son, Reverend Adam DePasquale, another of the lead pastors at Walnut Hill.The elder DePasquale says that, normally, his investment criteria include being a well-known company that’s a leader in its field and paying a consistent dividend. Still, Ark piqued his interest enough that he made a roughly $12,000 investment towards the end of 2020, when ARKK was trading at around $120. “The things she’s invested in made a lot of sense,” DePasquale says. “I got a sense that she sees paradigm shifts taking place – a gift.”Three months later, I check in with DePasquale to find out how he’s feeling about his investment, which is now down 40 per cent. He says he doesn’t have “any desire to bail out” or any financial need to sell right now. “I’ll wait. I have faith that it will come back, and she’ll turn it around. I think she has the right attitude towards innovation… I don’t want to buy high and sell low. That’s not a remedy to make money.”As our telephone call draws to a close, DePasquale asks if I would mind if he prayed for me. Not at all, I respond, assuming he means later on, privately. “Dear God,” he starts saying into the other end of the line, “thank you for Harriet and how she has used her skills and passion to seek wisdom… May you bless and protect her.”In February 2019, Tesla’s stock was trading at around $60. Ark, which holds a significant position in the electric carmaker, was bullish on its prospects, estimating that its share price could reach $3,000 by 2025. Wood was in a meeting room at the firm’s New York offices when she heard screams and laughter from her colleagues outside. She went out to find that Tesla chief executive Elon Musk had sent a direct Twitter message to Tasha Keeney, an Ark analyst, complimenting her on her work. Later, Musk joined Wood and Keeney on Ark’s regular FYI - For Your Innovation podcast. When I contact Musk via email about this story, he shoots back a single sentence: “Cathie and the Ark team think deeply about the future and are mostly correct. — EM”.Ark’s ability to speak in the emoji-laden, highly referential language of the meme stock generation is one example of what Ark means when it markets itself as an “untraditional investment manager”. Another is atypical hiring. The company has fewer than 50 employees, including around 20 in research and investing. Wood has surrounded herself with a team of young analysts, with backgrounds in subjects such as computer engineering or molecular biology, rather than a traditional grounding in finance. She says this is the best way to identify disruptive trends and to avoid consensus thinking. “I really believe that young people are at an advantage,” she says, because they “have one foot in the new world” and are native to certain parts of the market such as cryptocurrencies.Wood says the active management industry is dominated by short-term thinking and index trackers that avoid taking big bets and have high position overlap with their peers. Fear of the new, in other words. Ark set out to have a portfolio that has little overlap with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. “The old world order describes [Ark] as highly speculative, highly risky and these other disparaging words,” she says. “Whereas what we are saying is, ‘No, you are in harm’s way. You are taking a risk by not doing the kind of research we’re doing.’”Closely guarded proprietary research is the norm in the mainstream asset management industry. But Ark publishes all its research and stock price targets online; it also discloses its positions and trades, which one critic says amounts to “playing poker with their cards faced up”. This practice certainly makes it easy to follow Wood. Unaffiliated websites, such as Cathiesark.com, publish the positions, trades and weight of all companies in Ark’s stable of ETFs daily. An entire ecosystem of copycat and related products have sprung up around Wood’s funds as a result.This includes products that allow investors to magnify their exposure to Ark’s ETFs – or to directly wager against them. Last November, Tuttle Capital Management unveiled the Nasdaq-listed Tuttle Short Innovation ETF (ticker: SARK), which gives investors the ability to bet against Wood’s ARKK. Since launching, SARK has grown from $5mn to $325mn in assets under management and is up 24 per cent this year. “Some people are using it as an anti-Cathie Wood bet,” says chief executive Matthew Tuttle, while others are using it as a hedge against their exposure to growth stocks at a time when interest rates and inflation are rising.Some people see flaws in Ark’s business model. Edwin Dorsey,a short seller and author of the Bear Cave newsletter, has criticised the team’s lack of experience. For example, Ark’s chief operating officer, Tom Staudt, who is in charge of its risk management, is a former account executive at a television station in Michigan. “At Ark you get out-of-the-box thinkers from non-traditional backgrounds,” says Dorsey. “But it relies a lot on young analysts who might be in over their skis.” He believes that Ark’s research is good at identifying technological trends, but he doesn’t “think it’s that rigorous when it comes to selecting individual stocks”.That can mean missing red flags that ought to have come up during due diligence. Dorsey says examples among Ark’s current or previous investments include: German payments company Wirecard, which collapsed into insolvency in June last year, following a multiyear fraud exposed by the FT; and, Vuzix, an augmented reality glasses company in which Ark owns more than 10 per cent, which has a history of consistent unprofitability, a short seller lawsuit and an informal enquiry by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.The validity of Ark’s financial models and headline-making predictions has also come into question. At least two people reckon they found erroneous judgments in the company’s publicly released valuation model for Tesla. These errors, they believe, contribute to an overestimation of what the electric carmaker could be worth. Some of Wood’s public predictions strain credulity. Notably in a 2018 video, she declared “monogenic stem cell therapy” a $2tn revenue opportunity, with “polygenic” versions of the treatment worth “however many trillions” more. Monogenic stem cell therapy is not a concept scientists recognise. Wood says Ark’s research on innovation is “the best in the financial world.”And then there’s Ark’s footprint in the marketplace. When it buys and sells positions in smaller, less frequently traded companies typical of the innovation space, Ark can have an outsized impact on their share price because these types of positions are less liquid than blue chips like Tesla and Zoom. (Across its ETFs, Ark owns stakes of more than 5 per cent in 37 companies, and owns more than 10 per cent of 18 of these companies, according to Morningstar.)“As Ark has been buying these small-cap companies, it has been pushing their share prices up,” says Dan Izzo, chief executive of GHCO, a registered market maker. “It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy on the way up.” Crucially, he notes, this works both ways. “If redemptions made Ark a forced seller of illiquid names then it could push down their share prices.” This could result in a downward spiral for Ark.For all Ark’s talk of transparency, it takes more than four months before Wood finally agrees to an interview. By this point, it’s mid-February and ARKK has halved from its peak the year before. The short sellers are being vindicated. Wood pops on to my laptop screen, instantly recognisable by her trademark horn-rimmed glasses and poker straight hair. She looks smart in a striped shirt, dark highlights framing her high cheekbones and perfect white teeth. “We are as calm and focused as you could possibly imagine,” she says. Despite the market turmoil and the mounting losses in her portfolios she sleeps “very easily” at night, “knowing that we have never been in a period of more innovation in history”.There’s one exception: the prospect of investors pulling their money from Ark’s fund at the worst possible moment. If clients do so now, Wood says they will turn “what we believe are temporary losses into permanent losses. What’s going to happen is the same thing that happened in 2008-2009. Those who got out had such seller’s remorse” because they missed the subsequent market rebound.‘The old world order describes [Ark] as highly speculative, highly risky and these other disparaging words,’ Wood says. ‘Whereas what we are saying is, “No, you are in harm’s way. You are taking a risk by not doing the kind of research we’re doing”’We take the big controversies facing Wood and Ark one at a time.Critics have suggested that the firm’s transparency makes it vulnerable to front-running. If the market can see everything Ark is doing, traders could use that information to try to get ahead of it. This is especially a risk in a downward market. If Ark, for example, had to sell positions to meet redemptions, other investors could see that and sell off first, pushing down prices even more. Wood dismisses this. “It’s very hard to front-run us,” she says, adding that if she sees the price of a stock that Ark is buying starting to move up dramatically, she halts the order. The same thing happens on the way down. “We can stop the sale if [they’re] driving a stock down because they know we’re just going to be selling, selling, selling. I can stop it if I want to.”Wood is more philosophical about the short sellers: “Well, that’s what makes a market. And if we’re right, they’re going to have to cover all of their shorts, and that’ll help with the swoosh when it happens. And I truly do believe it will.” She says she does not take the existence of SARK and others like it personally. “They’re not doing any research. That’s why that strategy is not going to work in the long run. It’ll work from time to time when we’re in risk-off periods.”Ark allows investors to redeem their money on a daily basis; the risk in a downturn such as this one is that they pull out in droves. But Ark’s asset retention has been better than expected, says Wood. She believes this is a result of Ark’s communications strategy. “We overcommunicate. We are constantly putting out research. We are tweeting to let our clients know nothing has changed from our point of view.”She believes that “this has helped our clients trust us” and keep their Ark investment. Tuttle agrees: “ARKK has not had as many outflows as you’d expect, given the returns.” But he thinks it’s because “retail investors have been conditioned to ‘buy the dip’ in growth stocks”, a strategy that has worked since 2009. “At some point there’s a level where everything starts to waver,” he adds, “I just don’t know where that is.”An important element of Wood’s vision — and one of the drivers of her seemingly boundless optimism — is that the deflationary trend of recent decades and generally low interest rates will continue: technological innovation suppresses costs, while companies whose products are being rendered obsolete will have to cut prices. “Many people think we have a permanent inflation problem,” she says. “We don’t.” If anything she believes that problems that emerged during the pandemic “are accelerating the rate at which innovation is taking place”.But Wood is fighting against the tide of central banks. Jennison’s Segalas says: “The problem right now is that interest rates are going up, and that tends to hurt valuations, particularly of growth companies with no current earnings power. A lot will depend on what happens to inflation and interest rates as to when her strategy is going to work.” He adds: “Eventually I think she’ll be right, but I don’t know how long that takes.” Eldridge’s Boehly says, “Ark has low fixed costs, very modest leverage and substantial liquidity, which allows it to ride out market volatility.”The challenge for Wood is that she may be correct in identifying the big trends in innovation but back the wrong companies. Even if her bets are right in the long term, Ark’s losses in the short term could wipe it out. To paraphrase Keynes, the stock market can remain irrational longer than many fund managers can stay solvent.Wood has clearly pondered the question of longevity. “Many people in our business… they’d be quite happy to see us disappear,” she says. Repeatedly during our conversation she refers to herself as a “lightning rod” for the industry. To these critics, Wood represents the worst aspects of a frothy market, the gate-crashing of low-information retail investors and the triumph of a good story over hard data. None of which can end soon enough. For her retail following, she represents a middle finger to all of that. Fans want to believe her stories of a better, brighter future filled with flying cars, green energy and longer, healthier lives.But as the interview draws to a close, Wood is keen to make one last, important point. When it comes to Ark’s investments, “the courage of my conviction” is not the result of any higher calling. It “comes from our research”, she says. “I just want to make that very clear.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566385558470298","authorId":"3566385558470298","name":"___ _","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0600059befbdbcd780f0d15118a44d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566385558470298","authorIdStr":"3566385558470298"},"content":"happy gal u are [Happy]","text":"happy gal u are [Happy]","html":"happy gal u are [Happy]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940522891,"gmtCreate":1678060995914,"gmtModify":1678060999622,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940522891","repostId":"2317160870","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317160870","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1678056831,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317160870?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 06:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobs Report; Powell Testifies; Sea, JD.com, CrowdStrike Earnings: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317160870","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n  The latest data on the U.S. job market and several major earning reports w","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n  By Nicholas Jasinski \n</p>\n<p>\n  The latest data on the U.S. job market and several major earning reports will be this week's highlights. \n</p>\n<p>\n     On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. The consensus estimate is for 10.7 million job openings on the last business day of January, which would be a slight decline from December. \n</p>\n<p>\n     On Friday, the BLS releases February jobs data. Economists expect a gain of 215,000 nonfarm payrolls and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.4%. Job growth surprised to the upside in January, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 payrolls. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Companies reporting this week will include Ciena on Monday, CrowdStrike Holdings and Dick's Sporting Goods on Tuesday, and  Brown-Forman and Campbell Soup on Wednesday.  JD.com, Oracle, and Ulta Beauty will release results on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     General Electric will host an investor day on Thursday. Management will discuss expectations and plans for the year ahead and for the upcoming spinoff of GE's power business. Apple will hold its annual shareholders meeting on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Finally, the Bank of Japan will announce a monetary-policy decision on Friday. The central bank is expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 3/6 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Ciena, Nutanix, and Trip.com report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Merck hosts an investor event in New Orleans to discuss its cardiovascular drug pipeline, in conjunction with the American College of Cardiology and World Heart Federation Expo. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 3/7 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Casey's General Store, CrowdStrike Holdings, and Dick's Sporting Goods announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for January. In 2022, total consumer debt increased 7.8%, the largest jump since 2001, to a record $4.78 trillion. Nonrevolving credit -- mainly mortgages as well as auto and student loans -- rose 5.6%, while revolving credit -- mostly credit-card debt -- spiked 14.8%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 3/8 \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment report for February. Economists forecast an increase of 180,000 private-sector jobs, after a rise of 106,000 in January. The leisure and hospitality industry led the way in January. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Brown-Forman, Campbell Soup, and MongoDB release quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10.7 million job openings on the last business day of January, slightly less than in December. Job openings remained historically elevated, and there are currently nearly two openings for every unemployed person. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 3/9 \n</p>\n<p>\n     JD.com, Oracle, and Ulta Beauty hold conference calls to discuss earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     General Electric hosts an investor meeting to discuss the coming year and the pending spinoff of GE Vernova, which includes GE's Digital, Renewable Energy, and Power business. The spinoff is expected to be completed early next year. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Reserve releases the Financial Accounts of the U.S., which includes total household net worth data, for the fourth quarter. As of Sept. 30, household net worth totaled $143.3 trillion, about $7 trillion less than the record high reached in the fourth quarter of 2021. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 3/10 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Apple holds its annual shareholders meeting in a virtual format. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the BOJ and architect of its negative interest-rate policy, will retire in April. Incoming Gov. Kazuo Ueda is expected to maintain the BOJ's ultraloose monetary policy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for February. The economy is expected to have added 215,000 nonfarm jobs, following a gain of 517,000 in January. The January data outpaced consensus estimate by more than 300,000. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.4%, the lowest in more than a half-century. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<p>\n     This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  March 05, 2023 21:48 ET (02:48 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs Report; Powell Testifies; Sea, JD.com, CrowdStrike Earnings: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs Report; Powell Testifies; Sea, JD.com, CrowdStrike Earnings: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-06 06:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n  By Nicholas Jasinski \n</p>\n<p>\n  The latest data on the U.S. job market and several major earning reports will be this week's highlights. \n</p>\n<p>\n     On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. The consensus estimate is for 10.7 million job openings on the last business day of January, which would be a slight decline from December. \n</p>\n<p>\n     On Friday, the BLS releases February jobs data. Economists expect a gain of 215,000 nonfarm payrolls and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.4%. Job growth surprised to the upside in January, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 payrolls. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Companies reporting this week will include Ciena on Monday, CrowdStrike Holdings and Dick's Sporting Goods on Tuesday, and  Brown-Forman and Campbell Soup on Wednesday.  JD.com, Oracle, and Ulta Beauty will release results on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     General Electric will host an investor day on Thursday. Management will discuss expectations and plans for the year ahead and for the upcoming spinoff of GE's power business. Apple will hold its annual shareholders meeting on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Finally, the Bank of Japan will announce a monetary-policy decision on Friday. The central bank is expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 3/6 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Ciena, Nutanix, and Trip.com report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Merck hosts an investor event in New Orleans to discuss its cardiovascular drug pipeline, in conjunction with the American College of Cardiology and World Heart Federation Expo. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 3/7 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Casey's General Store, CrowdStrike Holdings, and Dick's Sporting Goods announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for January. In 2022, total consumer debt increased 7.8%, the largest jump since 2001, to a record $4.78 trillion. Nonrevolving credit -- mainly mortgages as well as auto and student loans -- rose 5.6%, while revolving credit -- mostly credit-card debt -- spiked 14.8%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 3/8 \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment report for February. Economists forecast an increase of 180,000 private-sector jobs, after a rise of 106,000 in January. The leisure and hospitality industry led the way in January. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Brown-Forman, Campbell Soup, and MongoDB release quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10.7 million job openings on the last business day of January, slightly less than in December. Job openings remained historically elevated, and there are currently nearly two openings for every unemployed person. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 3/9 \n</p>\n<p>\n     JD.com, Oracle, and Ulta Beauty hold conference calls to discuss earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     General Electric hosts an investor meeting to discuss the coming year and the pending spinoff of GE Vernova, which includes GE's Digital, Renewable Energy, and Power business. The spinoff is expected to be completed early next year. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Reserve releases the Financial Accounts of the U.S., which includes total household net worth data, for the fourth quarter. As of Sept. 30, household net worth totaled $143.3 trillion, about $7 trillion less than the record high reached in the fourth quarter of 2021. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 3/10 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Apple holds its annual shareholders meeting in a virtual format. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the BOJ and architect of its negative interest-rate policy, will retire in April. Incoming Gov. Kazuo Ueda is expected to maintain the BOJ's ultraloose monetary policy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for February. The economy is expected to have added 215,000 nonfarm jobs, following a gain of 517,000 in January. The January data outpaced consensus estimate by more than 300,000. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.4%, the lowest in more than a half-century. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<p>\n     This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  March 05, 2023 21:48 ET (02:48 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天",".DJI":"道琼斯","CIEN":"Ciena科技","ISBC":"投资者银行","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AAPL":"苹果","SE":"Sea Ltd","ORCL":"甲骨文",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317160870","content_text":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n  The latest data on the U.S. job market and several major earning reports will be this week's highlights. \n\n\n     On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. The consensus estimate is for 10.7 million job openings on the last business day of January, which would be a slight decline from December. \n\n\n     On Friday, the BLS releases February jobs data. Economists expect a gain of 215,000 nonfarm payrolls and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.4%. Job growth surprised to the upside in January, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 payrolls. \n\n\n     Companies reporting this week will include Ciena on Monday, CrowdStrike Holdings and Dick's Sporting Goods on Tuesday, and  Brown-Forman and Campbell Soup on Wednesday.  JD.com, Oracle, and Ulta Beauty will release results on Thursday. \n\n\n     General Electric will host an investor day on Thursday. Management will discuss expectations and plans for the year ahead and for the upcoming spinoff of GE's power business. Apple will hold its annual shareholders meeting on Friday. \n\n\n     Finally, the Bank of Japan will announce a monetary-policy decision on Friday. The central bank is expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. \n\n\n     Monday 3/6 \n\n\n     Ciena, Nutanix, and Trip.com report quarterly results. \n\n\n     Merck hosts an investor event in New Orleans to discuss its cardiovascular drug pipeline, in conjunction with the American College of Cardiology and World Heart Federation Expo. \n\n\n     Tuesday 3/7 \n\n\n     Casey's General Store, CrowdStrike Holdings, and Dick's Sporting Goods announce earnings. \n\n\n     The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for January. In 2022, total consumer debt increased 7.8%, the largest jump since 2001, to a record $4.78 trillion. Nonrevolving credit -- mainly mortgages as well as auto and student loans -- rose 5.6%, while revolving credit -- mostly credit-card debt -- spiked 14.8%. \n\n\n     Wednesday 3/8 \n\n\n     ADP releases its National Employment report for February. Economists forecast an increase of 180,000 private-sector jobs, after a rise of 106,000 in January. The leisure and hospitality industry led the way in January. \n\n\n     Brown-Forman, Campbell Soup, and MongoDB release quarterly results. \n\n\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10.7 million job openings on the last business day of January, slightly less than in December. Job openings remained historically elevated, and there are currently nearly two openings for every unemployed person. \n\n\n     Thursday 3/9 \n\n\n     JD.com, Oracle, and Ulta Beauty hold conference calls to discuss earnings. \n\n\n     General Electric hosts an investor meeting to discuss the coming year and the pending spinoff of GE Vernova, which includes GE's Digital, Renewable Energy, and Power business. The spinoff is expected to be completed early next year. \n\n\n     The Federal Reserve releases the Financial Accounts of the U.S., which includes total household net worth data, for the fourth quarter. As of Sept. 30, household net worth totaled $143.3 trillion, about $7 trillion less than the record high reached in the fourth quarter of 2021. \n\n\n     Friday 3/10 \n\n\n     Apple holds its annual shareholders meeting in a virtual format. \n\n\n     The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the BOJ and architect of its negative interest-rate policy, will retire in April. Incoming Gov. Kazuo Ueda is expected to maintain the BOJ's ultraloose monetary policy. \n\n\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for February. The economy is expected to have added 215,000 nonfarm jobs, following a gain of 517,000 in January. The January data outpaced consensus estimate by more than 300,000. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.4%, the lowest in more than a half-century. \n\n\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n\n\n     This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  March 05, 2023 21:48 ET (02:48 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950527985,"gmtCreate":1672792515348,"gmtModify":1676538737637,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":25,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950527985","repostId":"1157476445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157476445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672803708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157476445?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-04 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bets on Stock Rally Explode After an Odd Year in Options Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157476445","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Market pricing in 1-in-5 odds for 23% S&P 500 Gain in 2023Susquehanna advises clients to sell calls ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Market pricing in 1-in-5 odds for 23% S&amp;P 500 Gain in 2023</li><li>Susquehanna advises clients to sell calls and fund put hedging</li></ul><p>Hedging against the unknown is the name of the game in the options market. One risk that traders are increasingly attuned to in equities is the chance they will rally in 2023.</p><p>Wall Street strategists doubt it and investors are positioned against it, but certain pricing trends in derivatives show fewer traders are ruling it out after last year’s nearly 20% plunge in the S&amp;P 500. The bets are far from the consensus — right now they’re pricing in a 1-in-5 chance the S&amp;P 500 essentially reverses the decline in 2023, according to an analysis of implied volatility by Susquehanna International Group. But that’s a lot better odds than were being placed this time last year, when they stood at 1-in-20 for such an advance.</p><p>Contributing to demand for bullish calls is the unusual success traders had with them last year, as swift bear-market rallies paid off for investors who almost universally cut equity exposure to the bone. That positioning minimized the need for downside protection leading to an unusual situation where buying puts failed to deliver big gains even as the S&amp;P 500 sold off. To wit, the Cboe S&amp;P 500 Risk Reversal Index (RXM) tracking a strategy of selling puts to buy a call was up 1.5% last year, while the Cboe S&amp;P 500 5% Put Protection Index (PPUT), which follows a strategy that holds a long position on the equity gauge while buying puts as a hedge, lost 20%.</p><p>The diverging performance reflected a brutal market where investors were even willing to pay up for bullish options, causing a rise in the relative costs of calls versus puts, a relationship known as skew.</p><p>One way to understand skew, according to RBC Capital Markets’ strategist Amy Wu Silverman, is to think of it as “a representation of tail, the ‘thing’ we are most worried about,” she wrote in a note to clients on the weekend. “The ‘thing’ we are most worried about isn’t a down-crash but an up-crash.” That has kept call prices elevated versus puts, and might be why it stays that way “for a long, long time,” she said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a39b5cb2a39aec5c2db3a9def2d8f92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>So with stocks limping into 2023 and the Federal Reserve clear in its intention to keep rates elevated until inflation is well on the path lower, investors anticipating market turmoil are again paying up for options that capture upside if a rally breaks out, the analysis by Susquehanna showed.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.4% to 3,824 on Tuesday. As of Friday traders were assigning a 26% probability that the index would drop below 3,500. The odds climbed to almost 1-in-2 for a rise of almost 10% to above 4,200. For the S&amp;P 500 to go back to or above its all-time high of 4,800, the odds were 14%.</p><p>The pivot toward bullish options means investors can take advantage of the rich pricing, selling calls to fund protective puts, according to Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna.</p><p>“While the current option implied likelihoods of various moves lower over the course of the year are pretty similar to how the same percentage moves looked at this time last year, the upside of the distribution is notably different now versus then,” he wrote in a note Tuesday. “While this may not necessarily be that surprising given last year’s declines, it has meaningful implications for option pricing/implied outcomes.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bets on Stock Rally Explode After an Odd Year in Options Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBets on Stock Rally Explode After an Odd Year in Options Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-04 11:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/bets-on-stock-rally-explode-after-an-odd-year-in-options-trading?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Market pricing in 1-in-5 odds for 23% S&P 500 Gain in 2023Susquehanna advises clients to sell calls and fund put hedgingHedging against the unknown is the name of the game in the options market. One ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/bets-on-stock-rally-explode-after-an-odd-year-in-options-trading?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/bets-on-stock-rally-explode-after-an-odd-year-in-options-trading?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157476445","content_text":"Market pricing in 1-in-5 odds for 23% S&P 500 Gain in 2023Susquehanna advises clients to sell calls and fund put hedgingHedging against the unknown is the name of the game in the options market. One risk that traders are increasingly attuned to in equities is the chance they will rally in 2023.Wall Street strategists doubt it and investors are positioned against it, but certain pricing trends in derivatives show fewer traders are ruling it out after last year’s nearly 20% plunge in the S&P 500. The bets are far from the consensus — right now they’re pricing in a 1-in-5 chance the S&P 500 essentially reverses the decline in 2023, according to an analysis of implied volatility by Susquehanna International Group. But that’s a lot better odds than were being placed this time last year, when they stood at 1-in-20 for such an advance.Contributing to demand for bullish calls is the unusual success traders had with them last year, as swift bear-market rallies paid off for investors who almost universally cut equity exposure to the bone. That positioning minimized the need for downside protection leading to an unusual situation where buying puts failed to deliver big gains even as the S&P 500 sold off. To wit, the Cboe S&P 500 Risk Reversal Index (RXM) tracking a strategy of selling puts to buy a call was up 1.5% last year, while the Cboe S&P 500 5% Put Protection Index (PPUT), which follows a strategy that holds a long position on the equity gauge while buying puts as a hedge, lost 20%.The diverging performance reflected a brutal market where investors were even willing to pay up for bullish options, causing a rise in the relative costs of calls versus puts, a relationship known as skew.One way to understand skew, according to RBC Capital Markets’ strategist Amy Wu Silverman, is to think of it as “a representation of tail, the ‘thing’ we are most worried about,” she wrote in a note to clients on the weekend. “The ‘thing’ we are most worried about isn’t a down-crash but an up-crash.” That has kept call prices elevated versus puts, and might be why it stays that way “for a long, long time,” she said.So with stocks limping into 2023 and the Federal Reserve clear in its intention to keep rates elevated until inflation is well on the path lower, investors anticipating market turmoil are again paying up for options that capture upside if a rally breaks out, the analysis by Susquehanna showed.The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 3,824 on Tuesday. As of Friday traders were assigning a 26% probability that the index would drop below 3,500. The odds climbed to almost 1-in-2 for a rise of almost 10% to above 4,200. For the S&P 500 to go back to or above its all-time high of 4,800, the odds were 14%.The pivot toward bullish options means investors can take advantage of the rich pricing, selling calls to fund protective puts, according to Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna.“While the current option implied likelihoods of various moves lower over the course of the year are pretty similar to how the same percentage moves looked at this time last year, the upside of the distribution is notably different now versus then,” he wrote in a note Tuesday. “While this may not necessarily be that surprising given last year’s declines, it has meaningful implications for option pricing/implied outcomes.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157765189,"gmtCreate":1625616172041,"gmtModify":1703744862921,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to comment and like","listText":"Please help to comment and like","text":"Please help to comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157765189","repostId":"1122166072","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122166072","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625613844,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122166072?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 07:24","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock futures are slightly lower after S&P 500 snaps 7-day winning streak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122166072","media":"CNBC","summary":"U.S. stock futures opened slightly lower Tuesday night after the S&P 500 ended a seven-day winning streak, its longest since August.Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 54 points, or 0.16%. S&P 500 and $Nasdaq$ 100 futures dipped 0.10% and 0.06%, respectively.During the regular session, the 30-stock Dow fell 208.98 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 ended the day down by 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 0.2%. The tech-heavy index rose to a fresh all-time high on Tuesday.$Investors$ may b","content":"<div>\n<p>U.S. stock futures opened slightly lower Tuesday night after the S&P 500 ended a seven-day winning streak, its longest since August.\nDow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 54 points, or 0.16%. S...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock futures are slightly lower after S&P 500 snaps 7-day winning streak</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock futures are slightly lower after S&P 500 snaps 7-day winning streak\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 07:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. stock futures opened slightly lower Tuesday night after the S&P 500 ended a seven-day winning streak, its longest since August.\nDow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 54 points, or 0.16%. S...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1122166072","content_text":"U.S. stock futures opened slightly lower Tuesday night after the S&P 500 ended a seven-day winning streak, its longest since August.\nDow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 54 points, or 0.16%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.10% and 0.06%, respectively.\nDuring the regular session, the 30-stock Dow fell 208.98 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 ended the day down by 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 0.2%. The tech-heavy index rose to a fresh all-time high on Tuesday.\nInvestors may be worried the economy might be approaching its peak and that a correction could be on the way. In addition to complacency in the market, the combination of profit-margin pressures, inflation fears, Fed tapering and possible higher taxes could contribute to an eventual drawdown, market strategists say.\nRecovery-centered stocks likeCaterpillar,ChevronandJPMorgan Chasepulled back Tuesday while Big Tech stocks likeAmazon,AppleandAlphabetgained. Energy stocks took a hit after West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit their highest level in more than six years before turning negative.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.2 basis points to 1.36% as investors react to the potential of slower economic growth. That was its lowest level since February. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was 6.4 basis points lower at 1.98%.\nInvestors will be listening more clues on the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy when it releases its latest meeting minutes Wednesday afternoon, which could be a catalyst for a move in both bonds and stocks.\nThe Fed’s minutes are expected to be dovish with the central bank looking for progress in the labor market and not worried that recent inflation will become a persistent trend. Slowing down the bond buying would be the Fed’s first major retreat from the easy policies it put in place when the economy shut down last year.\nThe end of the Fed’s $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage purchases would also signal that the central bank’s next move could be to raise interest rates.\nWeekly mortgage applications and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey are also scheduled to be released Wednesday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579764463709225","authorId":"3579764463709225","name":"AhKeong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b20c0291da6c54ef8f3c421a4ed45c27","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579764463709225","authorIdStr":"3579764463709225"},"content":"done, your turn","text":"done, your turn","html":"done, your turn"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038541685,"gmtCreate":1646874386970,"gmtModify":1676534172190,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038541685","repostId":"2218231216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218231216","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1646867226,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218231216?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Tech, Financials Lead Resurgent Wall St as Oil Plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218231216","media":"Reuters","summary":"U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday led by financial and tech shares, rebounding from several down days as oil prices pulled back sharply after fanning inflationary fears and investors gauged developments","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday led by financial and tech shares, rebounding from several down days as oil prices pulled back sharply after fanning inflationary fears and investors gauged developments in the Ukraine crisis.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-day percentage gain since June 2020, while the Nasdaq tallied its biggest rise since March 2021.</p><p>Global oil prices posted their biggest plunge since the early pandemic days nearly two years ago, after the United Arab Emirates said the OPEC member would support increasing output into a market in disarray because of supply disruptions caused by sanctions imposed on Russia over its conflict with Ukraine.</p><p>A steep rise in oil and other commodities has sparked concerns about a further jolt to rising inflation and the potential for slowing economic growth.</p><p>&#34;I think it is an oversold rally on cooling in commodities,” said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital. “Stocks have been sold pretty aggressively for a few days. I don’t know that it permanently changes the direction of things.”</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 653.61 points, or 2%, to 33,286.25, the S&amp;P 500    gained 107.18 points, or 2.57%, to 4,277.88 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 460.00 points, or 3.59%, to 13,255.55.</p><p>The heavyweight technology group and financials were the top-gaining S&amp;P 500 sectors, rising 4% and 3.6% respectively.</p><p>Energy, which has been the standout sector performer in 2022, fell 3.2% as benchmark Brent crude slid to around $110 a barrel from over $130 earlier in the week.</p><p>Travel and leisure stocks, which have been hit hard recently, also soared, with shares of Carnival Corp rising 8.8% and United Airlines Holdings up 8.3%.</p><p>“The market is taking a break, consolidating from this downtrend that has seen a lot of stocks getting really, really hammered, especially on the growth side of the market,” said Anu Gaggar, global investment strategist for Commonwealth Financial Network.</p><p>In the latest developments, Ukraine accused Russia of bombing a children&#39;s hospital in the besieged port of Mariupol during an agreed ceasefire to enable civilians trapped in the city to escape.</p><p>Ukraine&#39;s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was due to meet Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Turkey on Thursday.</p><p>Stocks have struggled as concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis have deepened a sell-off initially fueled by worries over higher bond yields as the Federal Reserve is expected to tighten monetary policy this year to fight inflation.</p><p>On Monday, the Nasdaq confirmed it was in a bear market, falling over 20% from its record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed it was in a correction as it closed more than 10% lower from its record peak.</p><p>Investors were awaiting Thursday&#39;s report on U.S. consumer prices as a key data release ahead of the Fed&#39;s March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.75-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 32 new highs and 53 new lows.</p><p>About 14 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 13.6 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Tech, Financials Lead Resurgent Wall St as Oil Plunges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Tech, Financials Lead Resurgent Wall St as Oil Plunges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-10 07:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday led by financial and tech shares, rebounding from several down days as oil prices pulled back sharply after fanning inflationary fears and investors gauged developments in the Ukraine crisis.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-day percentage gain since June 2020, while the Nasdaq tallied its biggest rise since March 2021.</p><p>Global oil prices posted their biggest plunge since the early pandemic days nearly two years ago, after the United Arab Emirates said the OPEC member would support increasing output into a market in disarray because of supply disruptions caused by sanctions imposed on Russia over its conflict with Ukraine.</p><p>A steep rise in oil and other commodities has sparked concerns about a further jolt to rising inflation and the potential for slowing economic growth.</p><p>&#34;I think it is an oversold rally on cooling in commodities,” said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital. “Stocks have been sold pretty aggressively for a few days. I don’t know that it permanently changes the direction of things.”</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 653.61 points, or 2%, to 33,286.25, the S&amp;P 500    gained 107.18 points, or 2.57%, to 4,277.88 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 460.00 points, or 3.59%, to 13,255.55.</p><p>The heavyweight technology group and financials were the top-gaining S&amp;P 500 sectors, rising 4% and 3.6% respectively.</p><p>Energy, which has been the standout sector performer in 2022, fell 3.2% as benchmark Brent crude slid to around $110 a barrel from over $130 earlier in the week.</p><p>Travel and leisure stocks, which have been hit hard recently, also soared, with shares of Carnival Corp rising 8.8% and United Airlines Holdings up 8.3%.</p><p>“The market is taking a break, consolidating from this downtrend that has seen a lot of stocks getting really, really hammered, especially on the growth side of the market,” said Anu Gaggar, global investment strategist for Commonwealth Financial Network.</p><p>In the latest developments, Ukraine accused Russia of bombing a children&#39;s hospital in the besieged port of Mariupol during an agreed ceasefire to enable civilians trapped in the city to escape.</p><p>Ukraine&#39;s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was due to meet Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Turkey on Thursday.</p><p>Stocks have struggled as concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis have deepened a sell-off initially fueled by worries over higher bond yields as the Federal Reserve is expected to tighten monetary policy this year to fight inflation.</p><p>On Monday, the Nasdaq confirmed it was in a bear market, falling over 20% from its record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed it was in a correction as it closed more than 10% lower from its record peak.</p><p>Investors were awaiting Thursday&#39;s report on U.S. consumer prices as a key data release ahead of the Fed&#39;s March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.75-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 32 new highs and 53 new lows.</p><p>About 14 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 13.6 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218231216","content_text":"U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday led by financial and tech shares, rebounding from several down days as oil prices pulled back sharply after fanning inflationary fears and investors gauged developments in the Ukraine crisis.The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day percentage gain since June 2020, while the Nasdaq tallied its biggest rise since March 2021.Global oil prices posted their biggest plunge since the early pandemic days nearly two years ago, after the United Arab Emirates said the OPEC member would support increasing output into a market in disarray because of supply disruptions caused by sanctions imposed on Russia over its conflict with Ukraine.A steep rise in oil and other commodities has sparked concerns about a further jolt to rising inflation and the potential for slowing economic growth.\"I think it is an oversold rally on cooling in commodities,” said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital. “Stocks have been sold pretty aggressively for a few days. I don’t know that it permanently changes the direction of things.”The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 653.61 points, or 2%, to 33,286.25, the S&P 500    gained 107.18 points, or 2.57%, to 4,277.88 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 460.00 points, or 3.59%, to 13,255.55.The heavyweight technology group and financials were the top-gaining S&P 500 sectors, rising 4% and 3.6% respectively.Energy, which has been the standout sector performer in 2022, fell 3.2% as benchmark Brent crude slid to around $110 a barrel from over $130 earlier in the week.Travel and leisure stocks, which have been hit hard recently, also soared, with shares of Carnival Corp rising 8.8% and United Airlines Holdings up 8.3%.“The market is taking a break, consolidating from this downtrend that has seen a lot of stocks getting really, really hammered, especially on the growth side of the market,” said Anu Gaggar, global investment strategist for Commonwealth Financial Network.In the latest developments, Ukraine accused Russia of bombing a children's hospital in the besieged port of Mariupol during an agreed ceasefire to enable civilians trapped in the city to escape.Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was due to meet Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Turkey on Thursday.Stocks have struggled as concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis have deepened a sell-off initially fueled by worries over higher bond yields as the Federal Reserve is expected to tighten monetary policy this year to fight inflation.On Monday, the Nasdaq confirmed it was in a bear market, falling over 20% from its record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed it was in a correction as it closed more than 10% lower from its record peak.Investors were awaiting Thursday's report on U.S. consumer prices as a key data release ahead of the Fed's March 15-16 meeting.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.75-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 32 new highs and 53 new lows.About 14 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 13.6 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954778272,"gmtCreate":1676685886297,"gmtModify":1676685890453,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954778272","repostId":"1100725481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100725481","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1676779312,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100725481?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-19 12:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: U.S. Market Will Be Closed for Washington's Birthday on Monday, Feb. 20, 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100725481","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Washington's Birthday (Presidents Day) is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monda","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Washington&#39;s Birthday (Presidents Day) is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><b>About Presidents&#39; Day</b></p><p><b>Presidents&#39; Day</b>, also called <b>Washington&#39;s Birthday</b> at the federal governmental level, is a holiday in the United States celebrated on the third Monday of February to honor all people who served as presidents of the United States and, since 1879, has been the federal holiday honoring George Washington, who led the Continental Army to victory in the American Revolutionary War, presided at the Constitutional Convention of 1787, and was the first U.S. president.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f9465ca4610b5c38f13638edda32b36\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>George Washington with Flag</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. Market Will Be Closed for Washington's Birthday on Monday, Feb. 20, 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. Market Will Be Closed for Washington's Birthday on Monday, Feb. 20, 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-19 12:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Washington&#39;s Birthday (Presidents Day) is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><b>About Presidents&#39; Day</b></p><p><b>Presidents&#39; Day</b>, also called <b>Washington&#39;s Birthday</b> at the federal governmental level, is a holiday in the United States celebrated on the third Monday of February to honor all people who served as presidents of the United States and, since 1879, has been the federal holiday honoring George Washington, who led the Continental Army to victory in the American Revolutionary War, presided at the Constitutional Convention of 1787, and was the first U.S. president.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f9465ca4610b5c38f13638edda32b36\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>George Washington with Flag</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100725481","content_text":"Washington's Birthday (Presidents Day) is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.About Presidents' DayPresidents' Day, also called Washington's Birthday at the federal governmental level, is a holiday in the United States celebrated on the third Monday of February to honor all people who served as presidents of the United States and, since 1879, has been the federal holiday honoring George Washington, who led the Continental Army to victory in the American Revolutionary War, presided at the Constitutional Convention of 1787, and was the first U.S. president.George Washington with Flag","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956357866,"gmtCreate":1673916238455,"gmtModify":1676538902391,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956357866","repostId":"2303580505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303580505","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673928179,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303580505?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-17 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303580505","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street moved slightly higher in its second trading week of 2023. My &#34;three stocks to avoid,&#34; which I thought were going to lose to the market in the past week -- <b>Corus Entertainment</b>, <b>Sinclair Broadcasting</b>, and <b>ExxonMobil </b>-- plunged 18%, rose 5%, and climbed 2%, respectively, averaging out to a 3.7% decline.</p><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> moved in the other direction, increasing 2.7% for the holiday-abridged week. It was close, but I was right. I have been correct in 42 of the past 65 weeks, or 65% of the time.</p><p>Let&#39;s turn our attention to the week ahead. I see <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>, <b>Alcoa</b>, and <b>ExxonMobil</b> as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let&#39;s go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.</p><h2>1. Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</h2><p>You may wonder why shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond nearly tripled last week, soaring 179% even as bankruptcy fears are growing. Welcome to the world of meme stocks, where fundamentals don&#39;t matter in a short-lived feeding frenzy.</p><p>The future of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond is grim. This will be the fifth consecutive fiscal year of declining sales, and the third in a row with a double-digit drop. Analysts see another double-digit revenue slide for the new fiscal year that starts next month, and that&#39;s if Bed Bath &amp; Beyond survives that long. Losses are mounting, and quarterly deficits have been clocking in larger than expected for more than the past year.</p><p>It&#39;s not good to be a credit risk with more than $3.6 billion in debt. Anything can happen, but it&#39;s hard to imagine a positive scenario for the rapidly fading retail concept.</p><h2>2. Alcoa</h2><p>Aluminum prices have fallen sharply since peaking 10 months ago, foiling plans of commodity bulls. Aluminum, alumina, and bauxite producer Alcoa reports its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, and momentum hasn&#39;t been kind heading into the critical report.</p><p>Alcoa posted a 22% year-over-year revenue decline for its previous quarter. It also surprised investors with a quarterly deficit, even after backing out $652 million in restructuring charges relation to pension actions. Alcoa would also lower some of its full-year shipment projections.</p><p>Analysts see more red ink for this week&#39;s report on a 20% revenue slide. Wall Street pros think the weakness will continue. The same analysts who were modeling a profit of $5.21 a share for 2023 are now down to $3.16 a share on a 9% top-line slide.</p><p>In the 1970s, Alcoa had a TV commercial jingle, arguing that the Pittsburgh-based company wouldn&#39;t wait for tomorrow given all the advancements it was working on. With near-term prospects dim, investors can probably wait for tomorrow.</p><h2>3. ExxonMobil</h2><p>I won&#39;t go out on a long limb for the third pick. I&#39;ll stick with ExxonMobil, the oil and gas giant that&#39;s up a whopping 92% since the start of last year on a dividend-adjusted basis. The stock even inched higher this week, despite a price war that&#39;s breaking out with the country&#39;s leading electric-vehicle maker. Cars that don&#39;t need to refuel at ExxonMobil are going to surge in popularity this year, with lower prices and additional tax credits.</p><p>Wall Street&#39;s scaling back on its expectations. It now sees a 21% decline in earnings per share in 2023 on a 7% top-line slide. This company was a winner last year, but with gas prices easing and the EV market gaining share, it&#39;s not likely to repeat as a market leader this year.</p><p>It&#39;s going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you&#39;re looking for safe stocks, you aren&#39;t likely to find them in Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, Alcoa, and ExxonMobil this week.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-17 12:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/16/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street moved slightly higher in its second trading week of 2023. My \"three stocks to avoid,\" which I thought were going to lose to the market in the past week -- Corus Entertainment, Sinclair ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/16/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AA":"美国铝业","BBBY":"3B家居","XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/16/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303580505","content_text":"Wall Street moved slightly higher in its second trading week of 2023. My \"three stocks to avoid,\" which I thought were going to lose to the market in the past week -- Corus Entertainment, Sinclair Broadcasting, and ExxonMobil -- plunged 18%, rose 5%, and climbed 2%, respectively, averaging out to a 3.7% decline.The S&P 500 moved in the other direction, increasing 2.7% for the holiday-abridged week. It was close, but I was right. I have been correct in 42 of the past 65 weeks, or 65% of the time.Let's turn our attention to the week ahead. I see Bed Bath & Beyond, Alcoa, and ExxonMobil as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.1. Bed Bath & BeyondYou may wonder why shares of Bed Bath & Beyond nearly tripled last week, soaring 179% even as bankruptcy fears are growing. Welcome to the world of meme stocks, where fundamentals don't matter in a short-lived feeding frenzy.The future of Bed Bath & Beyond is grim. This will be the fifth consecutive fiscal year of declining sales, and the third in a row with a double-digit drop. Analysts see another double-digit revenue slide for the new fiscal year that starts next month, and that's if Bed Bath & Beyond survives that long. Losses are mounting, and quarterly deficits have been clocking in larger than expected for more than the past year.It's not good to be a credit risk with more than $3.6 billion in debt. Anything can happen, but it's hard to imagine a positive scenario for the rapidly fading retail concept.2. AlcoaAluminum prices have fallen sharply since peaking 10 months ago, foiling plans of commodity bulls. Aluminum, alumina, and bauxite producer Alcoa reports its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, and momentum hasn't been kind heading into the critical report.Alcoa posted a 22% year-over-year revenue decline for its previous quarter. It also surprised investors with a quarterly deficit, even after backing out $652 million in restructuring charges relation to pension actions. Alcoa would also lower some of its full-year shipment projections.Analysts see more red ink for this week's report on a 20% revenue slide. Wall Street pros think the weakness will continue. The same analysts who were modeling a profit of $5.21 a share for 2023 are now down to $3.16 a share on a 9% top-line slide.In the 1970s, Alcoa had a TV commercial jingle, arguing that the Pittsburgh-based company wouldn't wait for tomorrow given all the advancements it was working on. With near-term prospects dim, investors can probably wait for tomorrow.3. ExxonMobilI won't go out on a long limb for the third pick. I'll stick with ExxonMobil, the oil and gas giant that's up a whopping 92% since the start of last year on a dividend-adjusted basis. The stock even inched higher this week, despite a price war that's breaking out with the country's leading electric-vehicle maker. Cars that don't need to refuel at ExxonMobil are going to surge in popularity this year, with lower prices and additional tax credits.Wall Street's scaling back on its expectations. It now sees a 21% decline in earnings per share in 2023 on a 7% top-line slide. This company was a winner last year, but with gas prices easing and the EV market gaining share, it's not likely to repeat as a market leader this year.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Bed Bath & Beyond, Alcoa, and ExxonMobil this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943716593,"gmtCreate":1679712902312,"gmtModify":1679712906438,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943716593","repostId":"2322470421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2322470421","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1679699151,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2322470421?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-25 07:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Ends Volatile Week Higher as Fed Officials Ease Bank Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2322470421","media":"Reuters","summary":"KBW Regional Bank index reboundsU.S.-listed shares of Deutsche Bank slideActivision surges as regula","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>KBW Regional Bank index rebounds</li><li>U.S.-listed shares of Deutsche Bank slide</li><li>Activision surges as regulators drop concerns on Microsoft deal</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 0.41%, S&amp;P 0.56%, Nasdaq 0.31%</li></ul><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, marking the end of a tumultuous week as Federal Reserve officials calmed investor fears over a potential liquidity crisis in the banking sector.</p><p>While all three major U.S. stock indexes started the session sharply lower on the heels of a sell-off among European banks, those losses reversed by closing bell, repeating the intraday roller coaster ride of recent sessions.</p><p>At the conclusion of an up-and-down week, marked by a Fed interest rate hike and mounting worries over the health of the banking system, all three indexes notched weekly gains.</p><p>&#34;Equity markets drifted higher as concerns lingered about another banking flare up in the U.S. or abroad,&#34; said David Carter, managing director at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York. &#34;Wall Street is taking its cues from Washington and other capitals as it relates to interest rates and banking regulations.&#34;</p><p>In separate appearances, three regional Fed bank presidents said that their confidence that the banking system was not facing a liquidity crisis is what led to the decision to implement a 25 basis point policy rate hike on Wednesday.</p><p>But while Fed officials continue to see additional rate hikes as a strong possibility, financial markets are now favoring the likelihood of a no hike at all at the conclusion of its next policy meeting in May.</p><p>&#34;The Fed may be jaw-boning a bit as it says more rate increases may be coming this year,&#34; JPMorgan&#39;s Carter added. &#34;It helps both their inflation goal and suggests confidence in our economic system.&#34;</p><p>Worries over potential contagion beyond regional banks threatening to spread to their larger peers was sparked by a sell-off of European bank shares.</p><p>That sell-off was prompted by the rising cost of insuring Deutsche Bank&#39;s debt, expressed by its credit default swaps, coming on the heels of the state-sponsored buyout of Credit Suisse, has fed into the narrative of sector-wide stress.</p><p>But those worries eased by mid-afternoon.</p><p>While the S&amp;P Bank index ended modestly lower, the KBW Regional Bank index jumped 2.9%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 132.28 points, or 0.41%, to 32,237.53, the S&amp;P 500    gained 22.27 points, or 0.56%, to 3,970.99 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 36.56 points, or 0.31%, to 11,823.96.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, with defensive sectors such as utilities and real estate enjoying the biggest percentage gains. Consumer discretionary and financials were the two losers.</p><p>U.S.-traded shares of Deutsche Bank dropped 3.1%.</p><p>Shares of major U.S. banks, such as JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co, Wells Fargo pared their losses but still ended lower, while Bank of America flipped green.</p><p>Regional lenders <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>   , Western Alliance Bancorp    jumped 3.2% and 5.8%, respectively, while    $First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$    dropped 1.4%.</p><p>Activision Blizzard jumped 5.9% after the UK competition regulator dropped some competition concerns in the Microsoft-Activision deal.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.47-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.26-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and 35 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 298 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.08 billion shares, compared with the 12.84 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Ends Volatile Week Higher as Fed Officials Ease Bank Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Ends Volatile Week Higher as Fed Officials Ease Bank Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-25 07:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>KBW Regional Bank index rebounds</li><li>U.S.-listed shares of Deutsche Bank slide</li><li>Activision surges as regulators drop concerns on Microsoft deal</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 0.41%, S&amp;P 0.56%, Nasdaq 0.31%</li></ul><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, marking the end of a tumultuous week as Federal Reserve officials calmed investor fears over a potential liquidity crisis in the banking sector.</p><p>While all three major U.S. stock indexes started the session sharply lower on the heels of a sell-off among European banks, those losses reversed by closing bell, repeating the intraday roller coaster ride of recent sessions.</p><p>At the conclusion of an up-and-down week, marked by a Fed interest rate hike and mounting worries over the health of the banking system, all three indexes notched weekly gains.</p><p>&#34;Equity markets drifted higher as concerns lingered about another banking flare up in the U.S. or abroad,&#34; said David Carter, managing director at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York. &#34;Wall Street is taking its cues from Washington and other capitals as it relates to interest rates and banking regulations.&#34;</p><p>In separate appearances, three regional Fed bank presidents said that their confidence that the banking system was not facing a liquidity crisis is what led to the decision to implement a 25 basis point policy rate hike on Wednesday.</p><p>But while Fed officials continue to see additional rate hikes as a strong possibility, financial markets are now favoring the likelihood of a no hike at all at the conclusion of its next policy meeting in May.</p><p>&#34;The Fed may be jaw-boning a bit as it says more rate increases may be coming this year,&#34; JPMorgan&#39;s Carter added. &#34;It helps both their inflation goal and suggests confidence in our economic system.&#34;</p><p>Worries over potential contagion beyond regional banks threatening to spread to their larger peers was sparked by a sell-off of European bank shares.</p><p>That sell-off was prompted by the rising cost of insuring Deutsche Bank&#39;s debt, expressed by its credit default swaps, coming on the heels of the state-sponsored buyout of Credit Suisse, has fed into the narrative of sector-wide stress.</p><p>But those worries eased by mid-afternoon.</p><p>While the S&amp;P Bank index ended modestly lower, the KBW Regional Bank index jumped 2.9%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 132.28 points, or 0.41%, to 32,237.53, the S&amp;P 500    gained 22.27 points, or 0.56%, to 3,970.99 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 36.56 points, or 0.31%, to 11,823.96.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, with defensive sectors such as utilities and real estate enjoying the biggest percentage gains. Consumer discretionary and financials were the two losers.</p><p>U.S.-traded shares of Deutsche Bank dropped 3.1%.</p><p>Shares of major U.S. banks, such as JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co, Wells Fargo pared their losses but still ended lower, while Bank of America flipped green.</p><p>Regional lenders <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>   , Western Alliance Bancorp    jumped 3.2% and 5.8%, respectively, while    $First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$    dropped 1.4%.</p><p>Activision Blizzard jumped 5.9% after the UK competition regulator dropped some competition concerns in the Microsoft-Activision deal.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.47-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.26-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and 35 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 298 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.08 billion shares, compared with the 12.84 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","DOG":"道指反向ETF","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU1093756325.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin K2 Alt Strat Fd A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","MSFT":"微软","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4576":"AR","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4525":"远程办公概念","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","LU1093756168.USD":"FRANKLIN K2 ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2322470421","content_text":"KBW Regional Bank index reboundsU.S.-listed shares of Deutsche Bank slideActivision surges as regulators drop concerns on Microsoft dealIndexes up: Dow 0.41%, S&P 0.56%, Nasdaq 0.31%U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, marking the end of a tumultuous week as Federal Reserve officials calmed investor fears over a potential liquidity crisis in the banking sector.While all three major U.S. stock indexes started the session sharply lower on the heels of a sell-off among European banks, those losses reversed by closing bell, repeating the intraday roller coaster ride of recent sessions.At the conclusion of an up-and-down week, marked by a Fed interest rate hike and mounting worries over the health of the banking system, all three indexes notched weekly gains.\"Equity markets drifted higher as concerns lingered about another banking flare up in the U.S. or abroad,\" said David Carter, managing director at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York. \"Wall Street is taking its cues from Washington and other capitals as it relates to interest rates and banking regulations.\"In separate appearances, three regional Fed bank presidents said that their confidence that the banking system was not facing a liquidity crisis is what led to the decision to implement a 25 basis point policy rate hike on Wednesday.But while Fed officials continue to see additional rate hikes as a strong possibility, financial markets are now favoring the likelihood of a no hike at all at the conclusion of its next policy meeting in May.\"The Fed may be jaw-boning a bit as it says more rate increases may be coming this year,\" JPMorgan's Carter added. \"It helps both their inflation goal and suggests confidence in our economic system.\"Worries over potential contagion beyond regional banks threatening to spread to their larger peers was sparked by a sell-off of European bank shares.That sell-off was prompted by the rising cost of insuring Deutsche Bank's debt, expressed by its credit default swaps, coming on the heels of the state-sponsored buyout of Credit Suisse, has fed into the narrative of sector-wide stress.But those worries eased by mid-afternoon.While the S&P Bank index ended modestly lower, the KBW Regional Bank index jumped 2.9%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 132.28 points, or 0.41%, to 32,237.53, the S&P 500    gained 22.27 points, or 0.56%, to 3,970.99 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 36.56 points, or 0.31%, to 11,823.96.Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, with defensive sectors such as utilities and real estate enjoying the biggest percentage gains. Consumer discretionary and financials were the two losers.U.S.-traded shares of Deutsche Bank dropped 3.1%.Shares of major U.S. banks, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo pared their losses but still ended lower, while Bank of America flipped green.Regional lenders PacWest Bancorp   , Western Alliance Bancorp    jumped 3.2% and 5.8%, respectively, while    $First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$    dropped 1.4%.Activision Blizzard jumped 5.9% after the UK competition regulator dropped some competition concerns in the Microsoft-Activision deal.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.47-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.26-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and 35 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 298 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.08 billion shares, compared with the 12.84 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109007657,"gmtCreate":1619653559279,"gmtModify":1704727345011,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to comment and like&nbsp;","listText":"Please help to comment and like&nbsp;","text":"Please help to comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109007657","repostId":"1137964402","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137964402","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619651546,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137964402?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 07:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137964402","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</li><li>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.</li><li>Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.</li></ul><p>Apple&nbsp;reported&nbsp;a blowout quarter&nbsp;on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</p><p>Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e791f63f460807906f1793c2d58933e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p>Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its&nbsp;most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65.5% from last year. Its Mac and iPad sales&nbsp;did&nbsp;better, with its computers up 70.1% and iPad&nbsp;sales&nbsp;growing nearly 79% on an annual basis.</p><p>Apple said it would increase its dividend by 7%&nbsp;to $0.22 per share&nbsp;and authorized $90 billion in share buybacks, which is significantly higher than last year’s $50 billion outlay&nbsp;and 2019′s $75 billion.</p><p>Here’s how Apple did versus Refinitiv estimates:</p><ul><li><b>EPS</b>:&nbsp;$1.40&nbsp;vs. $0.99 estimated</li><li><b>Revenue</b>:&nbsp;$89.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $77.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 53.7% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPhone revenue</b>:&nbsp;$47.94 billion&nbsp;vs. $41.43&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up&nbsp;65.5% year-over-year</li><li><b>Services revenue</b>:&nbsp;$16.90 billion&nbsp;vs. $15.57&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 26.7% year over&nbsp;year</li><li><b>Other Products revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.83&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 24%&nbsp;year-over-year</li><li><b>Mac revenue</b>:&nbsp;$9.10&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $6.86&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 70.1% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPad revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.80 billion&nbsp;vs. $5.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 78.9% year-over-year</li><li><b>Gross margin</b>:&nbsp;42.5% vs. 39.8%&nbsp;estimated</li></ul><p>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. It hasn’t provided revenue&nbsp;guidance since the start of the pandemic, citing uncertainty.&nbsp;This is Apple’s second quarter in a row with double-digit growth in all product categories.&nbsp;Apple CFO Luca Maestri told analysts that the company expects June quarter revenue to rise by double digits year-over-year, although it faces some supply shortages due to the worldwide chip shortage.</p><p>Apple has said in the past months that its business has been boosted by the pandemic as consumers&nbsp;and businesses&nbsp;bought&nbsp;computers&nbsp;to work and entertain themselves while at home. But Apple’s strong results in the quarter suggest that the trend may persist as more economies&nbsp;open up.</p><p>Or, as Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement: “This quarter reflects both the enduring ways our products have helped our users meet this&nbsp;moment in their own lives, as well as the optimism consumers seem to feel about better days&nbsp;ahead for all of us.”</p><p>Mac sales were up 70%, and Cook said that the result was “fueled by” the company’s introduction of its Mac&nbsp;laptops&nbsp;that used its own M1 chips&nbsp;for longer battery life, instead of processors sold by&nbsp;Intel.&nbsp;iPad sales were up&nbsp;nearly 79% year-over-year.</p><p>Neither of those&nbsp;results&nbsp;include iPad Pro or iMac models the company announced in March, which are expected to drive additional demand.</p><p>“We’re seeing strong first-time buyers on the Mac&nbsp;…&nbsp;it continues to run just south of 50%,” Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. “And, in China, it’s even higher than that&nbsp;…&nbsp;it’s more around two-thirds. And that speaks to people preferring to work on the Mac.”</p><p>Apple’s iPhone also reported strong results this quarter, quelling fears that the current annual cycle could slow down. Last year, Apple released iPhones with a new exterior design and 5G support, which many investors believed could prompt a major upgrade cycle, which this quarter’s results indicate.</p><p>In greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan,&nbsp;Apple’s revenue increased over&nbsp;87% year-over-year to $17.73 billion, although the comparison is to a quarter last year in which China was largely shut down in the early days of the pandemic.&nbsp;Every other geographical category, including the Americas and Europe, were also up on an annual basis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a8b45c92174e3c9ab224d9a85f5e2d\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Apple’s&nbsp;high-margin&nbsp;services business, including iCloud, App Store, and subscriptions like Apple Music, also showed 26.7% growth.</p><p>One metric that Apple uses to show the growth in services is the number of subscriptions it has, which not only include its own subscriptions like Apple One, but also subscriptions through its App Store.</p><p>“We now have over 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on the platform, and that’s up 40 million from the previous quarter, which is an acceleration from 35 million,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p>However, Apple’s App Store has been challenged by lawmakers and companies that say it costs too much and has too much power. A closely-watched trial with Fortnite maker Epic Games over App Store policies kicks off next week.</p><p>“The App Store has been an economic miracle. Last year, the estimates are that there was over a half a trillion dollars of economic activity because of the store. And, so, this has been just an economic gamechanger for not only the United States, but several countries around the world. And, we’re going to go in and tell our story. And we’ll see where it goes. But, we’re confident,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p>Apple’s gross margin was also unusually elevated for the company. Most quarters, it tends to be in the 38% to 39% range, but in the quarter ending in March, Apple reported 42.5% margins.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-29 07:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</li><li>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.</li><li>Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.</li></ul><p>Apple&nbsp;reported&nbsp;a blowout quarter&nbsp;on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</p><p>Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e791f63f460807906f1793c2d58933e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p>Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its&nbsp;most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65.5% from last year. Its Mac and iPad sales&nbsp;did&nbsp;better, with its computers up 70.1% and iPad&nbsp;sales&nbsp;growing nearly 79% on an annual basis.</p><p>Apple said it would increase its dividend by 7%&nbsp;to $0.22 per share&nbsp;and authorized $90 billion in share buybacks, which is significantly higher than last year’s $50 billion outlay&nbsp;and 2019′s $75 billion.</p><p>Here’s how Apple did versus Refinitiv estimates:</p><ul><li><b>EPS</b>:&nbsp;$1.40&nbsp;vs. $0.99 estimated</li><li><b>Revenue</b>:&nbsp;$89.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $77.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 53.7% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPhone revenue</b>:&nbsp;$47.94 billion&nbsp;vs. $41.43&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up&nbsp;65.5% year-over-year</li><li><b>Services revenue</b>:&nbsp;$16.90 billion&nbsp;vs. $15.57&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 26.7% year over&nbsp;year</li><li><b>Other Products revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.83&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 24%&nbsp;year-over-year</li><li><b>Mac revenue</b>:&nbsp;$9.10&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $6.86&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 70.1% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPad revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.80 billion&nbsp;vs. $5.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 78.9% year-over-year</li><li><b>Gross margin</b>:&nbsp;42.5% vs. 39.8%&nbsp;estimated</li></ul><p>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. It hasn’t provided revenue&nbsp;guidance since the start of the pandemic, citing uncertainty.&nbsp;This is Apple’s second quarter in a row with double-digit growth in all product categories.&nbsp;Apple CFO Luca Maestri told analysts that the company expects June quarter revenue to rise by double digits year-over-year, although it faces some supply shortages due to the worldwide chip shortage.</p><p>Apple has said in the past months that its business has been boosted by the pandemic as consumers&nbsp;and businesses&nbsp;bought&nbsp;computers&nbsp;to work and entertain themselves while at home. But Apple’s strong results in the quarter suggest that the trend may persist as more economies&nbsp;open up.</p><p>Or, as Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement: “This quarter reflects both the enduring ways our products have helped our users meet this&nbsp;moment in their own lives, as well as the optimism consumers seem to feel about better days&nbsp;ahead for all of us.”</p><p>Mac sales were up 70%, and Cook said that the result was “fueled by” the company’s introduction of its Mac&nbsp;laptops&nbsp;that used its own M1 chips&nbsp;for longer battery life, instead of processors sold by&nbsp;Intel.&nbsp;iPad sales were up&nbsp;nearly 79% year-over-year.</p><p>Neither of those&nbsp;results&nbsp;include iPad Pro or iMac models the company announced in March, which are expected to drive additional demand.</p><p>“We’re seeing strong first-time buyers on the Mac&nbsp;…&nbsp;it continues to run just south of 50%,” Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. “And, in China, it’s even higher than that&nbsp;…&nbsp;it’s more around two-thirds. And that speaks to people preferring to work on the Mac.”</p><p>Apple’s iPhone also reported strong results this quarter, quelling fears that the current annual cycle could slow down. Last year, Apple released iPhones with a new exterior design and 5G support, which many investors believed could prompt a major upgrade cycle, which this quarter’s results indicate.</p><p>In greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan,&nbsp;Apple’s revenue increased over&nbsp;87% year-over-year to $17.73 billion, although the comparison is to a quarter last year in which China was largely shut down in the early days of the pandemic.&nbsp;Every other geographical category, including the Americas and Europe, were also up on an annual basis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a8b45c92174e3c9ab224d9a85f5e2d\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Apple’s&nbsp;high-margin&nbsp;services business, including iCloud, App Store, and subscriptions like Apple Music, also showed 26.7% growth.</p><p>One metric that Apple uses to show the growth in services is the number of subscriptions it has, which not only include its own subscriptions like Apple One, but also subscriptions through its App Store.</p><p>“We now have over 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on the platform, and that’s up 40 million from the previous quarter, which is an acceleration from 35 million,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p>However, Apple’s App Store has been challenged by lawmakers and companies that say it costs too much and has too much power. A closely-watched trial with Fortnite maker Epic Games over App Store policies kicks off next week.</p><p>“The App Store has been an economic miracle. Last year, the estimates are that there was over a half a trillion dollars of economic activity because of the store. And, so, this has been just an economic gamechanger for not only the United States, but several countries around the world. And, we’re going to go in and tell our story. And we’ll see where it goes. But, we’re confident,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p>Apple’s gross margin was also unusually elevated for the company. Most quarters, it tends to be in the 38% to 39% range, but in the quarter ending in March, Apple reported 42.5% margins.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137964402","content_text":"KEY POINTSApple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65.5% from last year. Its Mac and iPad sales did better, with its computers up 70.1% and iPad sales growing nearly 79% on an annual basis.Apple said it would increase its dividend by 7% to $0.22 per share and authorized $90 billion in share buybacks, which is significantly higher than last year’s $50 billion outlay and 2019′s $75 billion.Here’s how Apple did versus Refinitiv estimates:EPS: $1.40 vs. $0.99 estimatedRevenue: $89.58 billion vs. $77.36 billion estimated, up 53.7% year-over-yeariPhone revenue: $47.94 billion vs. $41.43 billion estimated, up 65.5% year-over-yearServices revenue: $16.90 billion vs. $15.57 billion estimated, up 26.7% year over yearOther Products revenue: $7.83 billion vs. $7.79 billion estimated, up 24% year-over-yearMac revenue: $9.10 billion vs. $6.86 billion estimated, up 70.1% year-over-yeariPad revenue: $7.80 billion vs. $5.58 billion estimated, up 78.9% year-over-yearGross margin: 42.5% vs. 39.8% estimatedApple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. It hasn’t provided revenue guidance since the start of the pandemic, citing uncertainty. This is Apple’s second quarter in a row with double-digit growth in all product categories. Apple CFO Luca Maestri told analysts that the company expects June quarter revenue to rise by double digits year-over-year, although it faces some supply shortages due to the worldwide chip shortage.Apple has said in the past months that its business has been boosted by the pandemic as consumers and businesses bought computers to work and entertain themselves while at home. But Apple’s strong results in the quarter suggest that the trend may persist as more economies open up.Or, as Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement: “This quarter reflects both the enduring ways our products have helped our users meet this moment in their own lives, as well as the optimism consumers seem to feel about better days ahead for all of us.”Mac sales were up 70%, and Cook said that the result was “fueled by” the company’s introduction of its Mac laptops that used its own M1 chips for longer battery life, instead of processors sold by Intel. iPad sales were up nearly 79% year-over-year.Neither of those results include iPad Pro or iMac models the company announced in March, which are expected to drive additional demand.“We’re seeing strong first-time buyers on the Mac … it continues to run just south of 50%,” Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. “And, in China, it’s even higher than that … it’s more around two-thirds. And that speaks to people preferring to work on the Mac.”Apple’s iPhone also reported strong results this quarter, quelling fears that the current annual cycle could slow down. Last year, Apple released iPhones with a new exterior design and 5G support, which many investors believed could prompt a major upgrade cycle, which this quarter’s results indicate.In greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, Apple’s revenue increased over 87% year-over-year to $17.73 billion, although the comparison is to a quarter last year in which China was largely shut down in the early days of the pandemic. Every other geographical category, including the Americas and Europe, were also up on an annual basis.Apple’s high-margin services business, including iCloud, App Store, and subscriptions like Apple Music, also showed 26.7% growth.One metric that Apple uses to show the growth in services is the number of subscriptions it has, which not only include its own subscriptions like Apple One, but also subscriptions through its App Store.“We now have over 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on the platform, and that’s up 40 million from the previous quarter, which is an acceleration from 35 million,” Cook told CNBC.However, Apple’s App Store has been challenged by lawmakers and companies that say it costs too much and has too much power. A closely-watched trial with Fortnite maker Epic Games over App Store policies kicks off next week.“The App Store has been an economic miracle. Last year, the estimates are that there was over a half a trillion dollars of economic activity because of the store. And, so, this has been just an economic gamechanger for not only the United States, but several countries around the world. And, we’re going to go in and tell our story. And we’ll see where it goes. But, we’re confident,” Cook told CNBC.Apple’s gross margin was also unusually elevated for the company. Most quarters, it tends to be in the 38% to 39% range, but in the quarter ending in March, Apple reported 42.5% margins.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567052123559984","authorId":"3567052123559984","name":"YiiYii","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb10d436567743e0e60ba0933900bf20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567052123559984","authorIdStr":"3567052123559984"},"content":"Done. Please return.","text":"Done. Please return.","html":"Done. Please return."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954662132,"gmtCreate":1676334317427,"gmtModify":1676334320782,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":25,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954662132","repostId":"1124797260","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124797260","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676346759,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124797260?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-14 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124797260","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As in","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As inflation cooled, Chairman Jerome Powell kept mostly quiet about a $5 trillion equity rally that many worry impedes his efforts to drain bloat from the economy.</p><p>Whether the peace can last will depend a lot on Tuesday’s consumer price index.</p><p>Consensus is building that a softer reading is likely to revive the new year’s equity rally while anything stronger may extend last week’s selloff in risky assets. Stocks and bonds have risen sharply since October when inflation reversed a two-year trend where CPI readings came in mostly stronger than expected. A simultaneous easing in financial conditions has repeatedly been brushed off by Powell despite questions over whether it hurts his goal of slowing demand and curbing inflation.</p><p>“I don’t think this Fed expected financial conditions to ease as much as they have, but as long as inflation keeps trending south, they’re not objecting,” Tony Pasquariello, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a note Friday. “This only ups the ante for CPI.”</p><p>Which part of consumer prices investors will focus on and how they will place bets in various scenarios are where some of the differences lie. At least that’s according to the game plans presented by two of Wall Street’s most prominent sales and trading desks.</p><p>The team at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. put emphasis on the yearly change in the consumer price index. Economists expected a decline to 6.2% in January from 6.5% in the prior month.</p><p>Should the data come in near the estimate, confirming continued cooling in inflation, bond yields and the dollar will fall while technology and economically sensitive shares lead an advance in the S&amp;P 500. But any equity gains are likely to fade, they warned, once investors shift attention to a relatively slower pace of disinflation than the previous two months, where each CPI print saw a decrease of 60 basis points.</p><p>At Morgan Stanley, the trading desk focused on CPI’s month-over-month change, which the bank’s economists forecast to show a 0.4% increase. In the event of a soft print, say 0.2%, tech and consumer stocks will climb alongside a rally in fixed income. A hotter reading like 0.6%, however, is expected to spark a risk-off move that even cyclical shares poised to benefit from inflation can’t escape.</p><p>Predicting inflation has proved almost impossible in the post-pandemic world, not to mention market reactions to it. If anything, the exercise from the two firms offers a lens into the risks that investors are contending with.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511844d853423b5e45eb90c64143b284\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At JPMorgan, the trading team including Andrew Tyler saw an almost two-in-three chance for the CPI data to arrive within 20 basis points of the median estimate from economists.</p><p>After a surprise jump in Manheim’s used-vehicle price index, expectations for a hotter reading have grown. If inflation comes in above 6.5% — a scenario that Tyler’s team assigned a 5% probability, the S&amp;P 500 would drop 2.5% to 3%. Should that occur, invest should look to sell expensive software stocks and cryptocurrencies while buying Treasuries and the dollar, the team suggested.</p><p>“This bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis and could be driven by services where the consumer has shown a rebound in spending, evidenced by the latest Manheim print,” they wrote in a note Friday. “More troubling for bulls is that this scenario would occur before we have witnessed an inflationary impulse from China.”</p><p>From stocks to bonds, financial assets last week halted their new-year bounce as Fed officials stressed the need to keep raising interest rates amid ongoing price pressures. Amid the hawkish remarks, traders ramped up bets on the Fed’s peak rate to around 5.2%, from under 5% earlier this month.</p><p>“The recent backup in bond yields may be enough such that we do not see another rate hike priced in given that we would have the March print before the next Fed meeting,” Tyler and his team said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Trading Desks Map Out Game Plans for CPI Scenarios\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-14 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/wall-street-trading-desks-map-out-game-plans-for-cpi-scenarios?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As inflation cooled, Chairman Jerome Powell kept mostly quiet about a $5 trillion equity rally that many ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/wall-street-trading-desks-map-out-game-plans-for-cpi-scenarios?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/wall-street-trading-desks-map-out-game-plans-for-cpi-scenarios?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124797260","content_text":"For months now, an uneasy truce has prevailed between the Federal Reserve and stock investors. As inflation cooled, Chairman Jerome Powell kept mostly quiet about a $5 trillion equity rally that many worry impedes his efforts to drain bloat from the economy.Whether the peace can last will depend a lot on Tuesday’s consumer price index.Consensus is building that a softer reading is likely to revive the new year’s equity rally while anything stronger may extend last week’s selloff in risky assets. Stocks and bonds have risen sharply since October when inflation reversed a two-year trend where CPI readings came in mostly stronger than expected. A simultaneous easing in financial conditions has repeatedly been brushed off by Powell despite questions over whether it hurts his goal of slowing demand and curbing inflation.“I don’t think this Fed expected financial conditions to ease as much as they have, but as long as inflation keeps trending south, they’re not objecting,” Tony Pasquariello, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a note Friday. “This only ups the ante for CPI.”Which part of consumer prices investors will focus on and how they will place bets in various scenarios are where some of the differences lie. At least that’s according to the game plans presented by two of Wall Street’s most prominent sales and trading desks.The team at JPMorgan Chase & Co. put emphasis on the yearly change in the consumer price index. Economists expected a decline to 6.2% in January from 6.5% in the prior month.Should the data come in near the estimate, confirming continued cooling in inflation, bond yields and the dollar will fall while technology and economically sensitive shares lead an advance in the S&P 500. But any equity gains are likely to fade, they warned, once investors shift attention to a relatively slower pace of disinflation than the previous two months, where each CPI print saw a decrease of 60 basis points.At Morgan Stanley, the trading desk focused on CPI’s month-over-month change, which the bank’s economists forecast to show a 0.4% increase. In the event of a soft print, say 0.2%, tech and consumer stocks will climb alongside a rally in fixed income. A hotter reading like 0.6%, however, is expected to spark a risk-off move that even cyclical shares poised to benefit from inflation can’t escape.Predicting inflation has proved almost impossible in the post-pandemic world, not to mention market reactions to it. If anything, the exercise from the two firms offers a lens into the risks that investors are contending with.At JPMorgan, the trading team including Andrew Tyler saw an almost two-in-three chance for the CPI data to arrive within 20 basis points of the median estimate from economists.After a surprise jump in Manheim’s used-vehicle price index, expectations for a hotter reading have grown. If inflation comes in above 6.5% — a scenario that Tyler’s team assigned a 5% probability, the S&P 500 would drop 2.5% to 3%. Should that occur, invest should look to sell expensive software stocks and cryptocurrencies while buying Treasuries and the dollar, the team suggested.“This bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis and could be driven by services where the consumer has shown a rebound in spending, evidenced by the latest Manheim print,” they wrote in a note Friday. “More troubling for bulls is that this scenario would occur before we have witnessed an inflationary impulse from China.”From stocks to bonds, financial assets last week halted their new-year bounce as Fed officials stressed the need to keep raising interest rates amid ongoing price pressures. Amid the hawkish remarks, traders ramped up bets on the Fed’s peak rate to around 5.2%, from under 5% earlier this month.“The recent backup in bond yields may be enough such that we do not see another rate hike priced in given that we would have the March print before the next Fed meeting,” Tyler and his team said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955580556,"gmtCreate":1675558554476,"gmtModify":1676539007451,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955580556","repostId":"2308684441","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2308684441","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1675558051,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2308684441?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-05 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2308684441","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"A key point of conflict requires resolutionInvestors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A key point of conflict requires resolution</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d84acd0fff9a6d03a294f0091d5a09d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Investors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion. GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p>Despite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023&#39;s young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.</p><p>But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.</p><p>Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won&#39;t follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.</p><p>On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell&#39;s position.</p><p>Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite  booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&amp;P 500  achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.</p><p>&#34;It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn&#39;t it?&#34; asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.</p><p>At some point in the coming months there will need to be &#34;a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,&#34; Baird said.</p><p>The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. &#34;I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.&#34;</p><p>Money-market traders did react to Friday&#39;s data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.</p><p>For the Fed&#39;s May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.</p><p>Of course, one month&#39;s data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January&#39;s labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.</p><p>For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.</p><p>Indeed, the momentum behind the market&#39;s rally could be set to continue. It&#39;s been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year&#39;s market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of &#34;FOMO,&#34; or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock &#34;meltup.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,&#34; said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.</p><p>And then there&#39;s earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.</p><p>The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.</p><p>When it comes to earnings, &#34;there&#39;s definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,&#34; said BMO&#39;s Ma.</p><p>&#34;I think the market just didn&#39;t want to see a disastrous earnings season,&#34; he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.</p><p>For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock-Market Rally Survived a Confusing Week. Here's What Comes Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-05 08:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A key point of conflict requires resolution</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d84acd0fff9a6d03a294f0091d5a09d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Investors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion. GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p>Despite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023&#39;s young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.</p><p>But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.</p><p>Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won&#39;t follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.</p><p>On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell&#39;s position.</p><p>Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite  booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&amp;P 500  achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.</p><p>&#34;It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn&#39;t it?&#34; asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.</p><p>At some point in the coming months there will need to be &#34;a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,&#34; Baird said.</p><p>The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. &#34;I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.&#34;</p><p>Money-market traders did react to Friday&#39;s data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.</p><p>For the Fed&#39;s May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.</p><p>Of course, one month&#39;s data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January&#39;s labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.</p><p>For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.</p><p>Indeed, the momentum behind the market&#39;s rally could be set to continue. It&#39;s been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year&#39;s market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of &#34;FOMO,&#34; or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock &#34;meltup.&#34;</p><p>&#34;The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,&#34; said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.</p><p>And then there&#39;s earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.</p><p>The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.</p><p>When it comes to earnings, &#34;there&#39;s definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,&#34; said BMO&#39;s Ma.</p><p>&#34;I think the market just didn&#39;t want to see a disastrous earnings season,&#34; he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.</p><p>For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2308684441","content_text":"A key point of conflict requires resolutionInvestors can be excused for feeling a sense of confusion. GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTODespite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023's young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won't follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the \"disinflationary process\" had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell's position.Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite  booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&P 500  achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.\"It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn't it?\" asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.At some point in the coming months there will need to be \"a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,\" Baird said.The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. \"I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.\"Money-market traders did react to Friday's data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.For the Fed's May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.Of course, one month's data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January's labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.Indeed, the momentum behind the market's rally could be set to continue. It's been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year's market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of \"FOMO,\" or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock \"meltup.\"\"The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,\" said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.And then there's earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&P 500.Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.When it comes to earnings, \"there's definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,\" said BMO's Ma.\"I think the market just didn't want to see a disastrous earnings season,\" he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107911382,"gmtCreate":1620438379546,"gmtModify":1704343691221,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to comment and like&nbsp;","listText":"Please help to comment and like&nbsp;","text":"Please help to comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107911382","repostId":"1120904578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120904578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620429937,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120904578?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 07:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120904578","media":"Reuters","summary":"The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the","content":"<p>The Dow and S&amp;P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.</p><p>U.S. job growth&nbsp;unexpectedly slowed&nbsp;in April, likely restrained by shortages of workers, the Labor Department report showed.</p><p>The report alleviated some concerns about rising inflation and potentially higher U.S. interest rates, which some investors worry would hurt growth companies with high valuations.</p><p>“Growth names that were taken to the woodshed are getting another chance, because they will be perceived to be less risky in an environment where there is a slower recovery, and that’s really what the jobs data is indicating”, said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.</p><p>Heavily-weighted growth stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp MSFT.O and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc AAPL.O rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, giving the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq their biggest boosts.</p><p>But gains were broad-based, with all major S&amp;P 500 sectors ending in the green and energy SPNY and real estate SPLRCR leading the advance. Energy and materials SPLRCM both hit fresh highs.</p><p>The Dow .DJI rose 229.23 points, or 0.66%, to 34,777.76, the S&amp;P 500 .SPX gained 30.98 points, or 0.74%, to 4,232.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 119.40 points, or 0.88%, to 13,752.24.</p><p>For the week, the Dow rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. The S&amp;P 500 gained 1.2%, its best week since mid-April, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5%.</p><p>“The anticipation and confirmation of (Federal Reserve) policy staying the same and continued economic recovery with vaccines rollout have fueled these all-time highs, but we do believe the volatility is going to be tightened in the short term,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at Axs Investments.</p><p>A raft of upbeat earnings also helped stocks, and S&amp;P 500 earnings are now estimated to have increased 50.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, which would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Payments firm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Inc SQ.N rose 4.2% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, as surging demand for bitcoin fueled a jump in cryptocurrency transactions on its application. (Full Story)</p><p>Streaming device maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku Inc</a> ROKU.O jumped 11.5%following an upbeat revenue outlook, while fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O gained as it laid out steps to improve the safety of its equipment. (Full Story) (Full Story)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a> Group Inc EXPE.O shares rose 5.2% as analysts raised price targets following the company’s upbeat results.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 164 new 52-week highs and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 164 new highs and 64 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, compared with the 10.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-08 07:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the Nasdaq recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.U.S. job ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SQ":"Block","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","MSFT":"微软","SPY":"标普500ETF","ROKU":"Roku Inc","EXPE":"Expedia",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120904578","content_text":"The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the Nasdaq recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed in April, likely restrained by shortages of workers, the Labor Department report showed.The report alleviated some concerns about rising inflation and potentially higher U.S. interest rates, which some investors worry would hurt growth companies with high valuations.“Growth names that were taken to the woodshed are getting another chance, because they will be perceived to be less risky in an environment where there is a slower recovery, and that’s really what the jobs data is indicating”, said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.Heavily-weighted growth stocks such as Microsoft Corp MSFT.O and Apple Inc AAPL.O rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, giving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq their biggest boosts.But gains were broad-based, with all major S&P 500 sectors ending in the green and energy SPNY and real estate SPLRCR leading the advance. Energy and materials SPLRCM both hit fresh highs.The Dow .DJI rose 229.23 points, or 0.66%, to 34,777.76, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 30.98 points, or 0.74%, to 4,232.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 119.40 points, or 0.88%, to 13,752.24.For the week, the Dow rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, its best week since mid-April, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5%.“The anticipation and confirmation of (Federal Reserve) policy staying the same and continued economic recovery with vaccines rollout have fueled these all-time highs, but we do believe the volatility is going to be tightened in the short term,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at Axs Investments.A raft of upbeat earnings also helped stocks, and S&P 500 earnings are now estimated to have increased 50.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, which would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010, according to Refinitiv data.Payments firm Square Inc SQ.N rose 4.2% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, as surging demand for bitcoin fueled a jump in cryptocurrency transactions on its application. (Full Story)Streaming device maker Roku Inc ROKU.O jumped 11.5%following an upbeat revenue outlook, while fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O gained as it laid out steps to improve the safety of its equipment. (Full Story) (Full Story)Expedia Group Inc EXPE.O shares rose 5.2% as analysts raised price targets following the company’s upbeat results.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 164 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 164 new highs and 64 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, compared with the 10.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957076562,"gmtCreate":1676852924156,"gmtModify":1676852928474,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957076562","repostId":"1197195026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197195026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676851327,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197195026?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-20 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Minutes May Reveal A Steep Rise In Rates On The Horizon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197195026","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryFed minutes will be released on Wednesday, February 22.Hot economy data suggest the Fed is no","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Fed minutes will be released on Wednesday, February 22.</li><li>Hot economy data suggest the Fed is nowhere close to pausing its rate hiking cycle.</li><li>That means that rates will be even higher than previously thought.</li></ul><p>This week&#39;s Fed minutes could reveal a few surprises to investors, but more importantly, it is likely to lay out the Fed&#39;s plans for the path of rate hikes. Powell referenced at the FOMC meeting that the minutes would reveal the Fed&#39;s discussion regarding what it is looking for to decide when to pause its rate hiking cycle.</p><p>One of the big surprises will likely show that not all Fed members were on board with slowing the pace of rate hikes. This past week, Cleveland and St. Louis Fed Presidents Loretta Mester and Jim Bullard noted they would have favored a 50 bps rate hike. Neither of them is a voting member, perhaps giving them room to be on the more hawkish side of things.</p><p><b>Higher For Much Longer</b></p><p>While the minutes may not reveal much new, they will likely confirm that no pause is coming soon. The hurdle for pausing is high enough that the risk is that the Fed will have to raise rates higher than previously thought and that rates may have to stay higher for much longer than previously thought. The most significant adjustments to the Fed Funds Futures curve have come at the back of the curve, with the August 2024 contracts rising by nearly 100 bps over the past month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615324a95317e2bbe5d5aa9de5ede951\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Additionally, the minutes will likely reflect the desire to see several months of inflation data, suggesting the Fed is on pace to reach its 2% target. Additionally, the minutes will reflect that the job market remains too tight and that wage pressures are not consistent with a 2% inflation rate, while the number of job openings remains high relative to the number of unemployed and that softness in the labor market has not developed yet. The Fed has desired to slow the economy without killing the job market. The easiest way to bring the supply and demand dynamic back into balance is to slow demand so that the number of job openings to the number of unemployed falls back to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, a rising labor participation rate would be highly desirable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58dc527ecd4cf28f52b9128afd3b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>Data Is Not Supportive For A Pause</b></p><p>The January job report showed that the unemployment rate fell, and job openings remained very high. This has left nearly two job openings for every unemployed person. On top of that, the recent wage growth in January ran hotter than expected on a year-over-year basis at 4.4%, while December&#39;s data was revised higher to 4.8%. To achieve a 2% inflation rate, the Fed would likely want to see wage growth of around 3%.</p><p>Additionally, the combination of the hot CPI, PPI, and stronger-than-expected import prices ex-petroleum suggest that the pace of inflation has slowed, but they also indicate that it isn&#39;t going to vanish either.</p><p>This week&#39;s CPI report suggests that inflation is not currently on pace to reach the Fed&#39;s target. All it took was three months of financial conditions easing for January&#39;s CPI to rise by 0.5% for the month. The PCE report on February 24 is also expected to show that inflation was strong in January, rising by 0.5% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in December and up 5% year-over-year, in line with December. Meanwhile, core PCE is expected to rise 0.4% in January, up from 0.3% month-over-month in December and up 4.3% year-over-year, versus 4.4% in December.</p><p><b>Financial Conditions Should Begin To Tighten</b></p><p>All of the data suggests a Fed pause is nowhere close, and now the market is pricing in rates going higher than the Fed&#39;s December projections. The August Fed Funds Futures contract is now trading at 5.3%, which suggests an additional 25 bps rate hike likely in June. The expectations for higher terminal rates have helped to lift bond yields and strengthen the dollar, and high yield credit spreads to widen, which have also helped to start tightening financial conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28fc2120e65e57a2c37a5fd5ae3053a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The tighter financial conditions become, the more stocks will struggle, and that effect of tight conditions has already been witnessed. The Goldman Sachs financial conditions index has risen to 99.87 from 99.40 on February 2. That has resulted in the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4180 to 4079 over the same time. As conditions tighten further, the S&amp;P 500 is likely to fall further.</p><p>The minutes are likely to confirm to the market that it will take significant further progress to meet the Fed&#39;s goal to pause, which should help tighten financial conditions further and start to slow the economy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Minutes May Reveal A Steep Rise In Rates On The Horizon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Minutes May Reveal A Steep Rise In Rates On The Horizon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-20 08:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579816-fed-minutes-may-reveal-steep-rise-rates><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFed minutes will be released on Wednesday, February 22.Hot economy data suggest the Fed is nowhere close to pausing its rate hiking cycle.That means that rates will be even higher than ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579816-fed-minutes-may-reveal-steep-rise-rates\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579816-fed-minutes-may-reveal-steep-rise-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197195026","content_text":"SummaryFed minutes will be released on Wednesday, February 22.Hot economy data suggest the Fed is nowhere close to pausing its rate hiking cycle.That means that rates will be even higher than previously thought.This week's Fed minutes could reveal a few surprises to investors, but more importantly, it is likely to lay out the Fed's plans for the path of rate hikes. Powell referenced at the FOMC meeting that the minutes would reveal the Fed's discussion regarding what it is looking for to decide when to pause its rate hiking cycle.One of the big surprises will likely show that not all Fed members were on board with slowing the pace of rate hikes. This past week, Cleveland and St. Louis Fed Presidents Loretta Mester and Jim Bullard noted they would have favored a 50 bps rate hike. Neither of them is a voting member, perhaps giving them room to be on the more hawkish side of things.Higher For Much LongerWhile the minutes may not reveal much new, they will likely confirm that no pause is coming soon. The hurdle for pausing is high enough that the risk is that the Fed will have to raise rates higher than previously thought and that rates may have to stay higher for much longer than previously thought. The most significant adjustments to the Fed Funds Futures curve have come at the back of the curve, with the August 2024 contracts rising by nearly 100 bps over the past month.BloombergAdditionally, the minutes will likely reflect the desire to see several months of inflation data, suggesting the Fed is on pace to reach its 2% target. Additionally, the minutes will reflect that the job market remains too tight and that wage pressures are not consistent with a 2% inflation rate, while the number of job openings remains high relative to the number of unemployed and that softness in the labor market has not developed yet. The Fed has desired to slow the economy without killing the job market. The easiest way to bring the supply and demand dynamic back into balance is to slow demand so that the number of job openings to the number of unemployed falls back to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, a rising labor participation rate would be highly desirable.BloombergData Is Not Supportive For A PauseThe January job report showed that the unemployment rate fell, and job openings remained very high. This has left nearly two job openings for every unemployed person. On top of that, the recent wage growth in January ran hotter than expected on a year-over-year basis at 4.4%, while December's data was revised higher to 4.8%. To achieve a 2% inflation rate, the Fed would likely want to see wage growth of around 3%.Additionally, the combination of the hot CPI, PPI, and stronger-than-expected import prices ex-petroleum suggest that the pace of inflation has slowed, but they also indicate that it isn't going to vanish either.This week's CPI report suggests that inflation is not currently on pace to reach the Fed's target. All it took was three months of financial conditions easing for January's CPI to rise by 0.5% for the month. The PCE report on February 24 is also expected to show that inflation was strong in January, rising by 0.5% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in December and up 5% year-over-year, in line with December. Meanwhile, core PCE is expected to rise 0.4% in January, up from 0.3% month-over-month in December and up 4.3% year-over-year, versus 4.4% in December.Financial Conditions Should Begin To TightenAll of the data suggests a Fed pause is nowhere close, and now the market is pricing in rates going higher than the Fed's December projections. The August Fed Funds Futures contract is now trading at 5.3%, which suggests an additional 25 bps rate hike likely in June. The expectations for higher terminal rates have helped to lift bond yields and strengthen the dollar, and high yield credit spreads to widen, which have also helped to start tightening financial conditions.BloombergThe tighter financial conditions become, the more stocks will struggle, and that effect of tight conditions has already been witnessed. The Goldman Sachs financial conditions index has risen to 99.87 from 99.40 on February 2. That has resulted in the S&P 500 falling from 4180 to 4079 over the same time. As conditions tighten further, the S&P 500 is likely to fall further.The minutes are likely to confirm to the market that it will take significant further progress to meet the Fed's goal to pause, which should help tighten financial conditions further and start to slow the economy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":45,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957323065,"gmtCreate":1677024827858,"gmtModify":1677024832463,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957323065","repostId":"1193607990","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193607990","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677038347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193607990?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-22 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Put on Bankruptcy Watch in 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193607990","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"In terms of stock market performance, 2023 has been strong, but certain companies are on bankruptcy ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>In terms of stock market performance, 2023 has been strong, but certain companies are on bankruptcy watch.</li><li><b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(<b>BBBY</b>): Bankruptcy is on the table as it struggles to make interest payments and pay its vendors.</li><li><b>Carvana</b>(<b>CVNA</b>): Has a bloated balance sheet, and the business faces a tough road ahead.</li><li><b>Canoo</b>(<b>GOEV</b>): Still isn’t producing revenue, and remains highly unprofitable.</li></ul><p>Given the pressures we’re seeing in many areas of the economy, it’s no surprise that businesses are feeling the heat. That’s got us looking at a few stocks on bankruptcy watch.</p><p>When it comes to investing, the dreaded “B-word” tends to evoke a strong reaction from investors. Suddenly, no one seems to want to own a now-toxic holding once the “bankruptcy” word starts getting tossed around.</p><p>It doesn’t help that common stockholders are one of the last priorities when it comes to getting paid out of bankruptcy proceedings. Instead, preferred shareholders, debt-holders and other investors come first in the pecking order.</p><p>Interestingly, we’ve seen some strong <i>bullish</i> reactions in a few of these stocks so far this year. So, can they keep up the momentum? Let’s discuss, and dive deeper into these three stocks on bankruptcy watch this year.</p><p><b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY)</b></p><p>At one point last year, it appeared there could be hope for <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(NASDAQ: <b><u>BBBY</u></b>). The retailer generated surprisingly-strong free cash flow, while relatively new leadership under Mark Tritton gave investors hope.</p><p>While the first few quarters of Covid were bumpy for retailers, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond began hitting its stride. Or so it appeared. After a couple of good quarters, the retailer started disappointing investors.</p><p>Despite a few short-lived “meme stock” short-squeezes, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond stock has really struggled lately. Given how its business has progressed, that’s no surprise. The retailer is experiencing pressure on its top- and bottom-lines, while the company’s significant debt load continues to weigh on its balance sheet.</p><p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond recently missed an interest payment and is having trouble paying its vendors. Shortly before a recent capital raise, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond even said bankruptcy protection was an option on the table. Thus, this is among the retailers I think is worth avoiding at all costs right now.</p><p><b>Carvana (CVNA)</b></p><p>Another mania stock that’s under tremendous pressure?<b>Carvana</b>(NYSE: <b><u>CVNA</u></b>).</p><p>Once dubbed the <b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ: <b><u>AMZN</u></b>) of used cars, this name has struggled. Shares are down more than 92% from the company’s 52-week high, and have fallen roughly 97% from their all-time high.</p><p>When supply chain woes weighed on new car production (and thus new car sales), the value of used cars exploded. That propelled Carvana stock higher at the time. It helped that we were in the midst of an unchecked bull market with rampant speculation. However, as with a short-term sugar high, the whole thing has come crashing down.</p><p>Carvana has made it clear to investors that its business is struggling. As noted by <i>Barron’s</i>:</p><blockquote>“And about that debt. Total liabilities at the end of September equated to almost $9.25 billion with just $666 million cash on hand. Not only that but diluted earnings per share in the 12 months prior was -$9.05.”</blockquote><p>That’s a major problem for a company that has a market cap of just $2 billion and can’t turn a consistent profit. Oddly though, investors can’t stop buying the stock. Despite the recent pullback, shares are still up more than 200% from their recent low.</p><p><b>Canoo (GOEV)</b></p><p>Last but not least, we have <b>Canoo</b>(NASDAQ: <b><u>GOEV</u></b>). When the EV SPAC revolution exploded shortly after Covid, I had a bad feeling about how it would end. I didn’t know when it would end or how high these stocks would go, but the valuations simply didn’t make sense.</p><p>Many of these names were garnering multi-billion valuations without any revenue in sight. Some just had a concept to go on. That’s not really an improvement from the dot-com bust 20 years prior. Only instead of websites, it was EV stocks that were somehow going to displace the stronger, more experienced and wealthier automakers.</p><p>With Canoo specifically, total assets are currently about double liabilities. However,<i>current</i> liabilities to <i>current</i> assets are an issue. With just $40.4 million in cash on hand at last check, the company’s currently liabilities of $183 million look pretty daunting.</p><p>Negative free cash flow and (still) zero dollars in revenue isn’t helping matters. Not to mention a wave of executives and insiders hitting the exits. Indeed, the prospects here don’t look good right now for Canoo.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Put on Bankruptcy Watch in 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Put on Bankruptcy Watch in 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-22 11:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/02/3-stocks-to-put-on-bankruptcy-watch-in-2023/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In terms of stock market performance, 2023 has been strong, but certain companies are on bankruptcy watch.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY): Bankruptcy is on the table as it struggles to make interest payments ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/3-stocks-to-put-on-bankruptcy-watch-in-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","CVNA":"Carvana Co.","GOEV":"Canoo Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/3-stocks-to-put-on-bankruptcy-watch-in-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193607990","content_text":"In terms of stock market performance, 2023 has been strong, but certain companies are on bankruptcy watch.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY): Bankruptcy is on the table as it struggles to make interest payments and pay its vendors.Carvana(CVNA): Has a bloated balance sheet, and the business faces a tough road ahead.Canoo(GOEV): Still isn’t producing revenue, and remains highly unprofitable.Given the pressures we’re seeing in many areas of the economy, it’s no surprise that businesses are feeling the heat. That’s got us looking at a few stocks on bankruptcy watch.When it comes to investing, the dreaded “B-word” tends to evoke a strong reaction from investors. Suddenly, no one seems to want to own a now-toxic holding once the “bankruptcy” word starts getting tossed around.It doesn’t help that common stockholders are one of the last priorities when it comes to getting paid out of bankruptcy proceedings. Instead, preferred shareholders, debt-holders and other investors come first in the pecking order.Interestingly, we’ve seen some strong bullish reactions in a few of these stocks so far this year. So, can they keep up the momentum? Let’s discuss, and dive deeper into these three stocks on bankruptcy watch this year.Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)At one point last year, it appeared there could be hope for Bed Bath & Beyond(NASDAQ: BBBY). The retailer generated surprisingly-strong free cash flow, while relatively new leadership under Mark Tritton gave investors hope.While the first few quarters of Covid were bumpy for retailers, Bed Bath & Beyond began hitting its stride. Or so it appeared. After a couple of good quarters, the retailer started disappointing investors.Despite a few short-lived “meme stock” short-squeezes, Bed Bath & Beyond stock has really struggled lately. Given how its business has progressed, that’s no surprise. The retailer is experiencing pressure on its top- and bottom-lines, while the company’s significant debt load continues to weigh on its balance sheet.Bed Bath & Beyond recently missed an interest payment and is having trouble paying its vendors. Shortly before a recent capital raise, Bed Bath & Beyond even said bankruptcy protection was an option on the table. Thus, this is among the retailers I think is worth avoiding at all costs right now.Carvana (CVNA)Another mania stock that’s under tremendous pressure?Carvana(NYSE: CVNA).Once dubbed the Amazon(NASDAQ: AMZN) of used cars, this name has struggled. Shares are down more than 92% from the company’s 52-week high, and have fallen roughly 97% from their all-time high.When supply chain woes weighed on new car production (and thus new car sales), the value of used cars exploded. That propelled Carvana stock higher at the time. It helped that we were in the midst of an unchecked bull market with rampant speculation. However, as with a short-term sugar high, the whole thing has come crashing down.Carvana has made it clear to investors that its business is struggling. As noted by Barron’s:“And about that debt. Total liabilities at the end of September equated to almost $9.25 billion with just $666 million cash on hand. Not only that but diluted earnings per share in the 12 months prior was -$9.05.”That’s a major problem for a company that has a market cap of just $2 billion and can’t turn a consistent profit. Oddly though, investors can’t stop buying the stock. Despite the recent pullback, shares are still up more than 200% from their recent low.Canoo (GOEV)Last but not least, we have Canoo(NASDAQ: GOEV). When the EV SPAC revolution exploded shortly after Covid, I had a bad feeling about how it would end. I didn’t know when it would end or how high these stocks would go, but the valuations simply didn’t make sense.Many of these names were garnering multi-billion valuations without any revenue in sight. Some just had a concept to go on. That’s not really an improvement from the dot-com bust 20 years prior. Only instead of websites, it was EV stocks that were somehow going to displace the stronger, more experienced and wealthier automakers.With Canoo specifically, total assets are currently about double liabilities. However,current liabilities to current assets are an issue. With just $40.4 million in cash on hand at last check, the company’s currently liabilities of $183 million look pretty daunting.Negative free cash flow and (still) zero dollars in revenue isn’t helping matters. Not to mention a wave of executives and insiders hitting the exits. Indeed, the prospects here don’t look good right now for Canoo.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954179182,"gmtCreate":1676164921546,"gmtModify":1676164925280,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954179182","repostId":"2310987489","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2310987489","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1676161583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2310987489?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-12 08:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 20 AI Stocks Are Expected By Analysts to Rise up to 85% Over the Next Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2310987489","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Artificial intelligence is the hottest area of the stock market right now. A screen of five ETFs poi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Artificial intelligence is the hottest area of the stock market right now. A screen of five ETFs points to a list of highly favored companies</li></ul><p>There are always fads in the stock market, but now we are in the midst of what could turn out to be a revolutionary trend that will last much longer than any fad — artificial intelligence.</p><p>In the Need to Know column on Feb. 9, Edward Stanley, who leads a team of strategists at Morgan Stanley, was quoted calling AI the real deal: “Generative AI, now popularized by ChatGPT, is showing all the usual hallmarks of hype,” he wrote. But then he added that “something suggests the AI hype is worth considering seriously,” calling it “the fastest platform to a million users and fastest to 100 million site views.”</p><p>Stanley called generative AI a “serious contender” for “tech diffusion with real market impact potential.”</p><h3>An AI stock screen</h3><p>When screening companies by business focus, it helps to have an industry label, such as “semiconductors.” Such isn’t the case for AI. One easy way to jump on the trend bandwagon would be to purchase shares of Microsoft Corp. MSFT, which provided $1 billion in funding for OpenAI when it began to develop ChatGPT, and is now ponying up billions more. Microsoft has been demonstrating how it will integrate ChatGPT with its Bing search engine.</p><p>For a new screen of AI-related stocks, we began by looking at the holdings of five exchange-traded funds with AI in their names:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BOTZ\">The Global X Robotics &amp; Artificial Intelligence ETF</a> holds 42 stocks. It tracks an index of companies listed in developed markets. The companies are expected to benefit from the increased utilization of robotics and artificial intelligence. The fund is weighted by market capitalization; its largest holding is Nvidia Corp. NVDA, which makes up 9.6% of its portfolio. It is the largest ETF listed here with $1.6 billion in assets under management. It was established September 2016.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRBO\">The iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF</a> holds 119 stocks that are equal-weighted, as it tracks a global index of companies that derive at east 50% of revenue from robotics or AI, or have significant exposure to related industries. This ETF has $269 million in assets; it was launched in June 2018.</li><li>The $205 million <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROBT\">First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence &amp; Robotics ETF</a> has 111 stocks in its portfolio, with a modified weighting based on how directly they are involved in AI or Robotics. It was established in February 2018.</li><li>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THNQ\">Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF</a> has $24 million in assets and was established in May 2020. This fund holds 69 stocks and isn’t concentrated. It uses a scoring system to weight its holdings by percentage of revenue derived from AI, with holdings also subject to minimum market capitalization and liquidity requirements.</li><li>The newest and smallest ETF on this list is the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WTAI\">WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund</a>, which was established on Dec. 7 and has $1.8 million in assets and holds 76 stocks in an equal-weighted portfolio. According to FactSet, stocks are handpicked and selected companies “generate at least 50% of their revenue from AI and innovation activities, including those related to software, semiconductors, hardware technology, machine learning and innovative products.”</li></ul><p>Taking all the stocks held by the ETFs together, we narrowed the list to 96 stocks held by at least two of the funds. We then narrowed further to 88 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.</p><p>Among those 88 companies, 30 are rated a “buy” by at least 75% of analysts covering the stocks. Sometimes price targets can get ahead of analysts’ targets, especially in such a hot area of the stock market.</p><p>So we have narrowed the list further to the 20 stocks for which analysts see the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets. Prices and targets are in local currencies, where the stocks are listed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7891c3b4756b3611beab2570e116fea1\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac1c597527a80030d01132244767f673\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"737\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 20 AI Stocks Are Expected By Analysts to Rise up to 85% Over the Next Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 20 AI Stocks Are Expected By Analysts to Rise up to 85% Over the Next Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-12 08:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Artificial intelligence is the hottest area of the stock market right now. A screen of five ETFs points to a list of highly favored companies</li></ul><p>There are always fads in the stock market, but now we are in the midst of what could turn out to be a revolutionary trend that will last much longer than any fad — artificial intelligence.</p><p>In the Need to Know column on Feb. 9, Edward Stanley, who leads a team of strategists at Morgan Stanley, was quoted calling AI the real deal: “Generative AI, now popularized by ChatGPT, is showing all the usual hallmarks of hype,” he wrote. But then he added that “something suggests the AI hype is worth considering seriously,” calling it “the fastest platform to a million users and fastest to 100 million site views.”</p><p>Stanley called generative AI a “serious contender” for “tech diffusion with real market impact potential.”</p><h3>An AI stock screen</h3><p>When screening companies by business focus, it helps to have an industry label, such as “semiconductors.” Such isn’t the case for AI. One easy way to jump on the trend bandwagon would be to purchase shares of Microsoft Corp. MSFT, which provided $1 billion in funding for OpenAI when it began to develop ChatGPT, and is now ponying up billions more. Microsoft has been demonstrating how it will integrate ChatGPT with its Bing search engine.</p><p>For a new screen of AI-related stocks, we began by looking at the holdings of five exchange-traded funds with AI in their names:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BOTZ\">The Global X Robotics &amp; Artificial Intelligence ETF</a> holds 42 stocks. It tracks an index of companies listed in developed markets. The companies are expected to benefit from the increased utilization of robotics and artificial intelligence. The fund is weighted by market capitalization; its largest holding is Nvidia Corp. NVDA, which makes up 9.6% of its portfolio. It is the largest ETF listed here with $1.6 billion in assets under management. It was established September 2016.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRBO\">The iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF</a> holds 119 stocks that are equal-weighted, as it tracks a global index of companies that derive at east 50% of revenue from robotics or AI, or have significant exposure to related industries. This ETF has $269 million in assets; it was launched in June 2018.</li><li>The $205 million <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROBT\">First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence &amp; Robotics ETF</a> has 111 stocks in its portfolio, with a modified weighting based on how directly they are involved in AI or Robotics. It was established in February 2018.</li><li>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THNQ\">Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF</a> has $24 million in assets and was established in May 2020. This fund holds 69 stocks and isn’t concentrated. It uses a scoring system to weight its holdings by percentage of revenue derived from AI, with holdings also subject to minimum market capitalization and liquidity requirements.</li><li>The newest and smallest ETF on this list is the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WTAI\">WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund</a>, which was established on Dec. 7 and has $1.8 million in assets and holds 76 stocks in an equal-weighted portfolio. According to FactSet, stocks are handpicked and selected companies “generate at least 50% of their revenue from AI and innovation activities, including those related to software, semiconductors, hardware technology, machine learning and innovative products.”</li></ul><p>Taking all the stocks held by the ETFs together, we narrowed the list to 96 stocks held by at least two of the funds. We then narrowed further to 88 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.</p><p>Among those 88 companies, 30 are rated a “buy” by at least 75% of analysts covering the stocks. Sometimes price targets can get ahead of analysts’ targets, especially in such a hot area of the stock market.</p><p>So we have narrowed the list further to the 20 stocks for which analysts see the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets. Prices and targets are in local currencies, where the stocks are listed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7891c3b4756b3611beab2570e116fea1\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac1c597527a80030d01132244767f673\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"737\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4502":"阿里概念","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SG9999018857.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Acc SGD-H","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK1586":"云计算","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BOTZ":"Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4023":"应用软件","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK1517":"云办公","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0449515922.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"PC\" (USD)ACC","IRBO":"iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","MSFT":"微软","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","LU0348788117.USD":"ALLIANZ EMERGING ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2310987489","content_text":"Artificial intelligence is the hottest area of the stock market right now. A screen of five ETFs points to a list of highly favored companiesThere are always fads in the stock market, but now we are in the midst of what could turn out to be a revolutionary trend that will last much longer than any fad — artificial intelligence.In the Need to Know column on Feb. 9, Edward Stanley, who leads a team of strategists at Morgan Stanley, was quoted calling AI the real deal: “Generative AI, now popularized by ChatGPT, is showing all the usual hallmarks of hype,” he wrote. But then he added that “something suggests the AI hype is worth considering seriously,” calling it “the fastest platform to a million users and fastest to 100 million site views.”Stanley called generative AI a “serious contender” for “tech diffusion with real market impact potential.”An AI stock screenWhen screening companies by business focus, it helps to have an industry label, such as “semiconductors.” Such isn’t the case for AI. One easy way to jump on the trend bandwagon would be to purchase shares of Microsoft Corp. MSFT, which provided $1 billion in funding for OpenAI when it began to develop ChatGPT, and is now ponying up billions more. Microsoft has been demonstrating how it will integrate ChatGPT with its Bing search engine.For a new screen of AI-related stocks, we began by looking at the holdings of five exchange-traded funds with AI in their names:The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF holds 42 stocks. It tracks an index of companies listed in developed markets. The companies are expected to benefit from the increased utilization of robotics and artificial intelligence. The fund is weighted by market capitalization; its largest holding is Nvidia Corp. NVDA, which makes up 9.6% of its portfolio. It is the largest ETF listed here with $1.6 billion in assets under management. It was established September 2016.The iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF holds 119 stocks that are equal-weighted, as it tracks a global index of companies that derive at east 50% of revenue from robotics or AI, or have significant exposure to related industries. This ETF has $269 million in assets; it was launched in June 2018.The $205 million First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence & Robotics ETF has 111 stocks in its portfolio, with a modified weighting based on how directly they are involved in AI or Robotics. It was established in February 2018.The Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF has $24 million in assets and was established in May 2020. This fund holds 69 stocks and isn’t concentrated. It uses a scoring system to weight its holdings by percentage of revenue derived from AI, with holdings also subject to minimum market capitalization and liquidity requirements.The newest and smallest ETF on this list is the WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund, which was established on Dec. 7 and has $1.8 million in assets and holds 76 stocks in an equal-weighted portfolio. According to FactSet, stocks are handpicked and selected companies “generate at least 50% of their revenue from AI and innovation activities, including those related to software, semiconductors, hardware technology, machine learning and innovative products.”Taking all the stocks held by the ETFs together, we narrowed the list to 96 stocks held by at least two of the funds. We then narrowed further to 88 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.Among those 88 companies, 30 are rated a “buy” by at least 75% of analysts covering the stocks. Sometimes price targets can get ahead of analysts’ targets, especially in such a hot area of the stock market.So we have narrowed the list further to the 20 stocks for which analysts see the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets. Prices and targets are in local currencies, where the stocks are listed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955906771,"gmtCreate":1675124732094,"gmtModify":1676538976940,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955906771","repostId":"1147905501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147905501","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675123436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147905501?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-31 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Calm Before The Interest Rate Storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147905501","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe seek to quantify the adverse effect of interest rate increases on demand and pricing power","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>We seek to quantify the adverse effect of interest rate increases on demand and pricing power for Tesla, Inc.</li><li>We look at some of Musk&#39;s more troubling statements, about Federal Reserve policy, the recession and other overlooked factors.</li><li>Investors may want to stay cautious, as Tesla could face more headwinds than seems obvious, despite last week&#39;s strong rally.</li><li>Despite the strong headwinds, there is still a strong case to be made for Tesla&#39;s future dominance in energy, robotics, AI and self-driving, albeit sacrificing a margin of safety.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d54f6d64a49f3f5870fd3eb35006ad\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) soared last week after its earnings call, from a low of $101.20 three weeks ago, and rebounded 76.85% to a share price of $178.97. The earnings call contained many subtle, yet very important and alarming clues that seemed to be rather overlooked by most.</p><p>We will explain why investors may want to tread carefully with Tesla, Inc., and perhaps wait for volatility to subside, due to the impact of higher interest rates and an impending consumer recession, which has not yet fully sunk in.</p><h2>Demand Headwinds?</h2><p>In terms of demand, the question right now is not necessarily whether Tesla will have enough demand, but rather how much pricing power they have vis-à-vis their 2023 output. Gross margin is a very important factor in that calculation.</p><p>If we look at Tesla&#39;sgross margins, they peaked at 32.9% in Q1 2022, and dropped to about 25.9% in Q4. That&#39;s quite a difference, because in Q1 Tesla did $16.86BN in sales, and $21.31BN in Q4, but made the same gross revenue attributable to such margin decline. Fortunately, Tesla has tremendous operating leverage, with OpEx. remaining almost miraculously flat over the past few years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929b45b1bb1ca3ceeee75edbdbe8ccb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p>But the reduction in gross margin does signal to us that demand may not be as elastic as previously estimated by Tesla executives. We think thenext platform, where we could see vehicles produced for $25,000 or $30,000, will be crucial if Tesla wants to drive up profits, and make up for it in volume, given that the market for premium EVs is only so big.</p><p>As for margins, an analyst asked during the call about rumors that gross margins for cars would fall below 20% and that the average selling price (ASP) would fall below $47,000 after price cuts, to which management replied:</p><blockquote>So there is certainly a lot of uncertainty about how the year will unfold, but I&#39;ll share what&#39;s in our current forecast for a moment. So based upon these metrics here, we believe that we&#39;ll be above both of the metrics that are stated in the question, so 20% automotive gross margin, excluding leases and rent credits and then $47,000 ASP across all models. (Zachary Kirkhorn, CFO)</blockquote><p>Management also confirmed its intentions to produce 1.8 million vehicles by 2023, so we take all those 3 parameters in this valuation to set out the low bar of what Tesla definitely expects to deliver in terms of results. We think this is a conservative approach given the many uncertainties. At 1.8 million units, an ASP of $47k and a gross margin of 20%, that would mean $16.92BN in gross profit. If OpEx increased linearly as it has over the past 2 years, we would expect about $8BN in OpEx, which would bring operating income to about $8.92BN.</p><p>In our view, that is a scenario that could play out in a fairly severe recession, but it has been set as a benchmark by Tesla itself, which they could certainly beat. The reason we put that scenario on the table is mostly due toour foresightabout where the economy is going, and Elon Musk&#39;s comments. Currently, in terms of car sales, bothin Europeandthe U.S., things don&#39;t look so bleak. Fortunately, EVs are the least dirty shirt of all, still going strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b93ec37a29e3b4ee254dce4c9a4efc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p>We think Elon has also already given some small hints about what the automotive landscape looks like at the moment, sort of implying that he would not be surprised if Tesla shares fell to &#34;surprisingly low levels.&#34;</p><blockquote>As I said in the last call, there&#39;s going to be bumps along the way and we&#39;ll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year, probably. I hope not, but probably. And so, one can&#39;t predict the short-term sort of stock value, because when there&#39;s a recession and people panic and the stock market then prices of stocks, worth<b>value of stocks can drop sometimes to surprisingly low levels</b>. (Emphasis added.)</blockquote><p>About a recession, he had the following to say:</p><blockquote>Yes. My guess is, if there is --<b>if the recession is a serious one and I think it probably will be</b>, but I hope it isn&#39;t, that would lead to meaningful decreases in almost all of our input costs. So we expect to see deflation in our input costs most likely, which would then lead to, yes, better margin. I&#39;m just guessing here. So, this is -- that would be my guess. (Emphasis added.)</blockquote><p>Consequently, Elon Musk also thinks the U.S. is on the brink of a severe recession. Despite such comments, investors did not seem to act cautiously, especially after seeing the stock rise 75%+ in no time.</p><p>We think this volatility will persist. On the other hand, there is a possibility, that when we enter a recession, commodity prices tend to fall, as Elon thinks. On the other hand,according to strategists, commodity price inflation accelerates the world&#39;s transition away from fossil fuels by making renewables more competitive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e879cc424aa6818a93210c38629c1b5a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>We doubt that statement a bit, because the demand for certain commodities such as lithium and copper has a very different dynamic now than in the past, while the demand for lithium-ion batteries and energy storage currently seems essentially infinite. Tesla itself is working toward 1,000 GWh.</p><p>That&#39;s still a long way off, as production of 1.31 million vehicles in 2022 would have required about 100 GWh+, according to our estimate. If Tesla were to exponentially double its lithium production, along with every other automaker, we believe it would be difficult to see production drop significantly, as we believe demand will continue to outstrip supply for quite some time.</p><p>However, management also seems to believe that these types of commodities are expected to remain high in 2023.</p><blockquote>On the raw materials and inflation side, where<b>lithium is the large driver there and this was a meaningful source of cost increase for us, we&#39;ll have to see where lithium prices go</b>. And we&#39;re not fully exposed to lithium prices, but I think in general, is what we&#39;ve seen from our forecast here, cost per car of lithium in 2023 will be higher than 2022. So that&#39;s a headwind that would have to be overcome to return back to those levels. (Emphasis added.)</blockquote><h2>Near-Term Valuation</h2><p>In the field of investing, there is a well-known saying that goes: look down, not up. This implies that investors should always strive to minimize the loss of principal. With that in mind, we will examine what the downside might look like under stressful conditions, as we saw in late 2022.</p><p>The usual indicators of economic turmoil, such as the 2-10-year yield curve or the3-month 10-yearyield curve, are deeply inverted, most since the 1980s. Combined with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP and a large amount of excess liquidity being withdrawn from the monetary system, and thelong and variable lagsof monetary policy, this will create interesting conditions in the 2H 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a429bb67866c69349254583b0022343\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve (FRED)</p><p>However, going back to the bear case of about $8.92BN in operating income, we think investors are still willing to assign a higher multiple to the stock, as has been the case in the past. Tesla has always traded at a premium, whether that is because of its growth or an upbeat outlook is for another debate.</p><p>At a multiple of 30x, the stock would come out at $267.6BN, or only $84.74 in a rather worst-case scenario, closer to the $101.20 of 3 weeks ago. However, there is something to be said that it could be even lower if we look at statistics such as free cash flow. Tesla generated $7.6BN in FCF, currently trading at nearly 74x 2022 FCF, while it had industry-leading margins especially in 1H.</p><p>It is hard to find other companies at the same level as Tesla, producing the same output when it comes to EVs. In our opinion, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) comes closest to Tesla,which produced911,140 EVs with pure batteries, or 1.86 million total plug-in vehicles. We understand that Chinese companies have been trading at a discount to U.S. stocks lately, due to geopolitical factors, although the discrepancy with Tesla is much larger compared to, say, other U.S. tech stocks versus Chinese tech stocks. TheHang Senghas a P/E ratio of 12.43 compared to21.76 for the S&amp;P 500(SPY).</p><p>On an LTM basis, BYD had $6.15BN in FCF, similar to Tesla as you can see in the chart below, but the company only hasa market capof $106.7BN. This means that, taking into account the U.S. stock premium, some might justify a valuation closer to $200BN, in times of distress. Or, as Musk would say, in a recession &#34;the value of stocks can sometimes fall to surprisingly low levels.&#34;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bdc9e9abcaea70f14ab8b7b1a7546dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TIKR Terminal</p><p>If it ever gets close to BYD&#39;s relative valuation, and that bridge is closed, we do not rule out a scenario in which Tesla could touch that $200BN market cap, or $63.34 per share. That is mainly why we are currently giving a hold rating, because the risk of losing principal in the short to medium term could be quite high, in a market that is still in its early stages.</p><p>We have also not yet seen the impact of competition on margins, as they are extremelyslow in their transitionto EVs, not counting certain Chinese EV manufacturers. Here&#39;s what management had to say about their Chinese competitors:</p><blockquote>In the vehicle space, even though the market is shrinking, we&#39;re growing and EVs have doubled almost year-over-year. So, like it ever keeps up with the trend of EVs is going to be our competitor.<b>The Chinese are scary; we always say that</b>. (Emphasis added.)</blockquote><p>Elon also gave his input:</p><blockquote>I think we have a lot of respect for the car companies in China. They are the most competitive in the world, that is our experience and the Chinese market, it is the most competitive. They work the hardest and they work the smartest, that&#39;s so for the China car companies that we&#39;re competing against. And so we would guess, there are probably some company out of China<b>as the most likely to be second to Tesla</b>. (Emphasis added.)</blockquote><p>The issue of a buyback has also been on the table since Tesla was trading well above $200 but did not break through because they wanted to play it safe, with a potentially severe recession around the corner. About their $20BN balance sheet, he had the following to say:</p><blockquote>The cash is earning a ridiculous return, a good return. So it&#39;s like nontrivial. And the interest rate actually in the $20 billion is earning like quite a good amount.</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02559674a92712ba5d9641d9bdfc757\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p>On the one hand, it seems a bit paradoxical to us. Currently, the highestinterest rateis 4.79% on a 6-month Treasury note, it&#39;s a bit strange to call that a good amount compared to the promised 50% revenue growth from Elon and his team. Though, we can totally see why Tesla doesn&#39;t want to do a buyback after the bouts they had in2008and2018, nearly bankrupt.</p><p>But having no confidence inissuing a buyback, and havingsold $40BNworth of shares himself, doesn&#39;t exactly scream downside protection and &#34;extremely undervalued&#34; stock to us.</p><p>Interest Rate Headwinds</p><p>About interest rates and the Federal Reserve, Elon had something remarkable to say toward the end of the talk that we don&#39;t think anyone really spoke about. He said the following:</p><blockquote>I&#39;ve made this point on Twitter a few times. I&#39;m sure a lot of people on this call understand the fact -- the basic value of a security is a function of the risk-free rate or<b>we&#39;ll see how risk-free it really is</b>but the T-bill rate. So if you&#39;ve got -- I think the -- I recall correctly, the S&amp;P 500 has a long-term rate of return of roughly 6%. And so I think that needs to be very cautious about having Fed rates that potentially exceeds 6%. (Emphasis added.)</blockquote><p>The suggestion that &#34;we&#39;ll see how risk-free it really is&#34; caught us somewhat by surprise, but it does confirm that serious economic turmoil is imminent. Or perhaps it refers to ahypothetical first defaultby the U.S. of the $31.4T debt ceiling recently reached.</p><p>Outside an economic downturn, we personally consider it likely that other events will occur as unintended consequences, such as a liquidity crunch like March 2020, turmoil in the Treasury market or something that might break through, such as the shadow banking/ Eurodollar system. Ray Dalio also warnedearlier this weekthat the dollar-dominated world order is &#34;fading.&#34;</p><p>So when it comes to policy mistakes, we believe the risks are higher than ever. Remember that interest rate hikes take at least12 monthsto have a widespread economic effect, and 18 months to be fully felt. Inflation is already starting to fall, and these increases at a record pace are not likely to be fully felt until 2H 2023. It may be in the interest of Tesla and the economy if the Fed proceeds cautiously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aa0af10c51a1332ede890af1bed82d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve (FRED)</p><p>Interest rates and auto loans, as a function of GDP, at about 5.5% of GDP, have almost never been higher. Consumer debt in general is at historically high levels. The impact of a Federal Funds rate above 5% can be felt harder, knowing that in the past, debt was much lower than GDP when interest rates were even higher.</p><p>Applying this specifically to Tesla, there is a significant headwind that these higher rates create. We have not yet experienced interest rates being raised this far from near zero, but the effect on auto loans is already starting to be felt.</p><p>The chart below shows the correlation between the Federal Funds Rate in red, thefinancing rateon 48-month auto loans in blue and total auto sales in green.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8932fd5b55cac7c05931b71c9d768c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve (FRED)</p><p>The first thing to note is that there is usually a 3% spread between Federal Funds and loan rates, unless the interest rate is close to zero. If we have a Federal Funds rate of 5%, it is reasonable to estimate that loan rates will be near 8%, if not higher.</p><p>Auto loans have been around 4.5% for the past 8 years. That difference will be felt. For example, if we take a standard Model Y, at 4.5% you would end up paying about $7,880 in interest, versus $14,470.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e566a927b8e559d42c884c638f4cbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Auto Loan Calculator</p><p>That&#39;s a difference of about $6590, or a 10.45% increase in the total price when purchased with a loan, due to higher rates. Without taking into account the possibility of declining car sales due to higher unemployment, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a41a6ef086dc379f5059a0879c5c176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Auto Loan Calculator</p><p>On Tesla&#39;s website in the US you can currently get an APR of 5.34%, and in the EU we could find a rate of about 2% APR on a standard Model Y. For people with lower credit scores trying to buyan affordable car, the impact is even greater. As the Fedand ECBcontinue to raise interest rates, we see this as a serious headwind.</p><blockquote>As you raise the price, the percentage of people that can afford the car starts to drop exponentially. (Elon Musk,Tesla owners Silicon Valley podcast)</blockquote><h2>Energy Is Currency</h2><p>Aside from the relative valuation and near-term headwinds, we also would not sell or short Tesla at these prices. With near infinite demand for green and renewable energy storage, Tesla&#39;s headwinds in vehicle demand may soon turn into tailwinds as an energy manufacturer.</p><p>For reference, over the past more than 10 years, the cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen, according to Wright&#39;s Law. That means that for every cumulative doubling of the number of units produced, the cost falls by a constant percentage. At about $100/kWh, EVs reach the samesticker priceas internal combustion vehicles, and it no longer becomes economically justifiable to buy those ICE vehicles, since both the initial selling price and the cost of ownership are cheaper for EVs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b7b82478006efc000031a08f00eabe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Graph (Bloomberg Data)</p><p>Prices currentlyaverage $151/kWh, although some manufacturers in China were already close to $100/kWh by 2022. Recently, commodity prices have heavily depressed the natural decline in battery cell prices. During the Q3 earnings call, Elon Musk told investors that once the 4680 battery cell is fully integrated, he believes there is a path to $70 per kWh cell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a9861bf0db45a6592fb4d1869c5131\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What&#39;s crazy is that, with the &#34;inflation reduction act&#34;, Tesla as a manufacturer of battery cells could receive credits worth $35/kWh. They currently work together with Panasonic and had this to say:</p><blockquote>In the case of Panasonic domestic manufacturing, we&#39;re splitting the value of the credits. So it -- the value of credits this year will not be gigantic, but I think it could be gigantic -- we think it probably will be very significant in the future. (Elon Musk, Q4)</blockquote><p>At 500 GWh, for example, those credits alone would be worth $17.5BN. Not only would that be a game changer, it would make Tesla one of the leaders in mass production of batteries. We think this is crucial, because we firmly believe that the future will be a combination ofbattery cells, wind and solar.</p><p>This could certainly be a case like Amazon, which some analysts were bearish about in the early 2000s because Amazon&#39;s business model then had low margins as an Internet wholesaler. Just as Tesla could see its margins shrink, we believe they will continue to use their cash flow and technological edge to expand as a conglomerate in the areas of energy, robotics, artificial and perhaps self-driving.</p><p>In Tesla&#39;s case, it&#39;s a positive feedback loop, even in terms of AI and computing power. Even if it fails to maintain its industry-leading operating margins, they still have the benefit of their AI, data collection, energy and manufacturing/ automation. When training AI models, if you have access to a world-class team, renewable energy,computing(Dojo) and robotics, you are well-prepared to lead in the AI race as well.</p><blockquote>As we mentioned many times before, we want to be the best manufacturer. But really, manufacturing technology will be our most important long-term strength. (Elon Musk, Q4 Call)</blockquote><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>With a consumer recession around the corner, ahawkish Fed, and uncertainty surrounding Tesla&#39;s pricing power, it may be a good idea to exercise some caution and not chase trends and volatility. On the other hand, much can be said about Tesla&#39;s important long-term outlook.</p><p>One thing is certain: if it&#39;s bad for Tesla, imagine what it will be like for all the other legacy car manufacturers who riddled in debt and have not been in this situation since before 2008.... Here is a quote from the earnings call to sum everything up, about if interest rates were to get closer to 6%:</p><blockquote>Basically, the Fed is the risk of crushing the value of all equities, which is quite a serious, danger. (Elon Musk, Q4 Call)</blockquote></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Calm Before The Interest Rate Storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Calm Before The Interest Rate Storm\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-31 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573523-tesla-calm-before-the-interest-rate-storm><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe seek to quantify the adverse effect of interest rate increases on demand and pricing power for Tesla, Inc.We look at some of Musk's more troubling statements, about Federal Reserve policy, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573523-tesla-calm-before-the-interest-rate-storm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573523-tesla-calm-before-the-interest-rate-storm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147905501","content_text":"SummaryWe seek to quantify the adverse effect of interest rate increases on demand and pricing power for Tesla, Inc.We look at some of Musk's more troubling statements, about Federal Reserve policy, the recession and other overlooked factors.Investors may want to stay cautious, as Tesla could face more headwinds than seems obvious, despite last week's strong rally.Despite the strong headwinds, there is still a strong case to be made for Tesla's future dominance in energy, robotics, AI and self-driving, albeit sacrificing a margin of safety.Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) soared last week after its earnings call, from a low of $101.20 three weeks ago, and rebounded 76.85% to a share price of $178.97. The earnings call contained many subtle, yet very important and alarming clues that seemed to be rather overlooked by most.We will explain why investors may want to tread carefully with Tesla, Inc., and perhaps wait for volatility to subside, due to the impact of higher interest rates and an impending consumer recession, which has not yet fully sunk in.Demand Headwinds?In terms of demand, the question right now is not necessarily whether Tesla will have enough demand, but rather how much pricing power they have vis-à-vis their 2023 output. Gross margin is a very important factor in that calculation.If we look at Tesla'sgross margins, they peaked at 32.9% in Q1 2022, and dropped to about 25.9% in Q4. That's quite a difference, because in Q1 Tesla did $16.86BN in sales, and $21.31BN in Q4, but made the same gross revenue attributable to such margin decline. Fortunately, Tesla has tremendous operating leverage, with OpEx. remaining almost miraculously flat over the past few years.TIKR TerminalBut the reduction in gross margin does signal to us that demand may not be as elastic as previously estimated by Tesla executives. We think thenext platform, where we could see vehicles produced for $25,000 or $30,000, will be crucial if Tesla wants to drive up profits, and make up for it in volume, given that the market for premium EVs is only so big.As for margins, an analyst asked during the call about rumors that gross margins for cars would fall below 20% and that the average selling price (ASP) would fall below $47,000 after price cuts, to which management replied:So there is certainly a lot of uncertainty about how the year will unfold, but I'll share what's in our current forecast for a moment. So based upon these metrics here, we believe that we'll be above both of the metrics that are stated in the question, so 20% automotive gross margin, excluding leases and rent credits and then $47,000 ASP across all models. (Zachary Kirkhorn, CFO)Management also confirmed its intentions to produce 1.8 million vehicles by 2023, so we take all those 3 parameters in this valuation to set out the low bar of what Tesla definitely expects to deliver in terms of results. We think this is a conservative approach given the many uncertainties. At 1.8 million units, an ASP of $47k and a gross margin of 20%, that would mean $16.92BN in gross profit. If OpEx increased linearly as it has over the past 2 years, we would expect about $8BN in OpEx, which would bring operating income to about $8.92BN.In our view, that is a scenario that could play out in a fairly severe recession, but it has been set as a benchmark by Tesla itself, which they could certainly beat. The reason we put that scenario on the table is mostly due toour foresightabout where the economy is going, and Elon Musk's comments. Currently, in terms of car sales, bothin Europeandthe U.S., things don't look so bleak. Fortunately, EVs are the least dirty shirt of all, still going strong.TIKR TerminalWe think Elon has also already given some small hints about what the automotive landscape looks like at the moment, sort of implying that he would not be surprised if Tesla shares fell to \"surprisingly low levels.\"As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way and we'll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year, probably. I hope not, but probably. And so, one can't predict the short-term sort of stock value, because when there's a recession and people panic and the stock market then prices of stocks, worthvalue of stocks can drop sometimes to surprisingly low levels. (Emphasis added.)About a recession, he had the following to say:Yes. My guess is, if there is --if the recession is a serious one and I think it probably will be, but I hope it isn't, that would lead to meaningful decreases in almost all of our input costs. So we expect to see deflation in our input costs most likely, which would then lead to, yes, better margin. I'm just guessing here. So, this is -- that would be my guess. (Emphasis added.)Consequently, Elon Musk also thinks the U.S. is on the brink of a severe recession. Despite such comments, investors did not seem to act cautiously, especially after seeing the stock rise 75%+ in no time.We think this volatility will persist. On the other hand, there is a possibility, that when we enter a recession, commodity prices tend to fall, as Elon thinks. On the other hand,according to strategists, commodity price inflation accelerates the world's transition away from fossil fuels by making renewables more competitive.Data byYChartsWe doubt that statement a bit, because the demand for certain commodities such as lithium and copper has a very different dynamic now than in the past, while the demand for lithium-ion batteries and energy storage currently seems essentially infinite. Tesla itself is working toward 1,000 GWh.That's still a long way off, as production of 1.31 million vehicles in 2022 would have required about 100 GWh+, according to our estimate. If Tesla were to exponentially double its lithium production, along with every other automaker, we believe it would be difficult to see production drop significantly, as we believe demand will continue to outstrip supply for quite some time.However, management also seems to believe that these types of commodities are expected to remain high in 2023.On the raw materials and inflation side, wherelithium is the large driver there and this was a meaningful source of cost increase for us, we'll have to see where lithium prices go. And we're not fully exposed to lithium prices, but I think in general, is what we've seen from our forecast here, cost per car of lithium in 2023 will be higher than 2022. So that's a headwind that would have to be overcome to return back to those levels. (Emphasis added.)Near-Term ValuationIn the field of investing, there is a well-known saying that goes: look down, not up. This implies that investors should always strive to minimize the loss of principal. With that in mind, we will examine what the downside might look like under stressful conditions, as we saw in late 2022.The usual indicators of economic turmoil, such as the 2-10-year yield curve or the3-month 10-yearyield curve, are deeply inverted, most since the 1980s. Combined with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP and a large amount of excess liquidity being withdrawn from the monetary system, and thelong and variable lagsof monetary policy, this will create interesting conditions in the 2H 2022.Federal Reserve (FRED)However, going back to the bear case of about $8.92BN in operating income, we think investors are still willing to assign a higher multiple to the stock, as has been the case in the past. Tesla has always traded at a premium, whether that is because of its growth or an upbeat outlook is for another debate.At a multiple of 30x, the stock would come out at $267.6BN, or only $84.74 in a rather worst-case scenario, closer to the $101.20 of 3 weeks ago. However, there is something to be said that it could be even lower if we look at statistics such as free cash flow. Tesla generated $7.6BN in FCF, currently trading at nearly 74x 2022 FCF, while it had industry-leading margins especially in 1H.It is hard to find other companies at the same level as Tesla, producing the same output when it comes to EVs. In our opinion, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) comes closest to Tesla,which produced911,140 EVs with pure batteries, or 1.86 million total plug-in vehicles. We understand that Chinese companies have been trading at a discount to U.S. stocks lately, due to geopolitical factors, although the discrepancy with Tesla is much larger compared to, say, other U.S. tech stocks versus Chinese tech stocks. TheHang Senghas a P/E ratio of 12.43 compared to21.76 for the S&P 500(SPY).On an LTM basis, BYD had $6.15BN in FCF, similar to Tesla as you can see in the chart below, but the company only hasa market capof $106.7BN. This means that, taking into account the U.S. stock premium, some might justify a valuation closer to $200BN, in times of distress. Or, as Musk would say, in a recession \"the value of stocks can sometimes fall to surprisingly low levels.\"TIKR TerminalIf it ever gets close to BYD's relative valuation, and that bridge is closed, we do not rule out a scenario in which Tesla could touch that $200BN market cap, or $63.34 per share. That is mainly why we are currently giving a hold rating, because the risk of losing principal in the short to medium term could be quite high, in a market that is still in its early stages.We have also not yet seen the impact of competition on margins, as they are extremelyslow in their transitionto EVs, not counting certain Chinese EV manufacturers. Here's what management had to say about their Chinese competitors:In the vehicle space, even though the market is shrinking, we're growing and EVs have doubled almost year-over-year. So, like it ever keeps up with the trend of EVs is going to be our competitor.The Chinese are scary; we always say that. (Emphasis added.)Elon also gave his input:I think we have a lot of respect for the car companies in China. They are the most competitive in the world, that is our experience and the Chinese market, it is the most competitive. They work the hardest and they work the smartest, that's so for the China car companies that we're competing against. And so we would guess, there are probably some company out of Chinaas the most likely to be second to Tesla. (Emphasis added.)The issue of a buyback has also been on the table since Tesla was trading well above $200 but did not break through because they wanted to play it safe, with a potentially severe recession around the corner. About their $20BN balance sheet, he had the following to say:The cash is earning a ridiculous return, a good return. So it's like nontrivial. And the interest rate actually in the $20 billion is earning like quite a good amount.Data byYChartsOn the one hand, it seems a bit paradoxical to us. Currently, the highestinterest rateis 4.79% on a 6-month Treasury note, it's a bit strange to call that a good amount compared to the promised 50% revenue growth from Elon and his team. Though, we can totally see why Tesla doesn't want to do a buyback after the bouts they had in2008and2018, nearly bankrupt.But having no confidence inissuing a buyback, and havingsold $40BNworth of shares himself, doesn't exactly scream downside protection and \"extremely undervalued\" stock to us.Interest Rate HeadwindsAbout interest rates and the Federal Reserve, Elon had something remarkable to say toward the end of the talk that we don't think anyone really spoke about. He said the following:I've made this point on Twitter a few times. I'm sure a lot of people on this call understand the fact -- the basic value of a security is a function of the risk-free rate orwe'll see how risk-free it really isbut the T-bill rate. So if you've got -- I think the -- I recall correctly, the S&P 500 has a long-term rate of return of roughly 6%. And so I think that needs to be very cautious about having Fed rates that potentially exceeds 6%. (Emphasis added.)The suggestion that \"we'll see how risk-free it really is\" caught us somewhat by surprise, but it does confirm that serious economic turmoil is imminent. Or perhaps it refers to ahypothetical first defaultby the U.S. of the $31.4T debt ceiling recently reached.Outside an economic downturn, we personally consider it likely that other events will occur as unintended consequences, such as a liquidity crunch like March 2020, turmoil in the Treasury market or something that might break through, such as the shadow banking/ Eurodollar system. Ray Dalio also warnedearlier this weekthat the dollar-dominated world order is \"fading.\"So when it comes to policy mistakes, we believe the risks are higher than ever. Remember that interest rate hikes take at least12 monthsto have a widespread economic effect, and 18 months to be fully felt. Inflation is already starting to fall, and these increases at a record pace are not likely to be fully felt until 2H 2023. It may be in the interest of Tesla and the economy if the Fed proceeds cautiously.Federal Reserve (FRED)Interest rates and auto loans, as a function of GDP, at about 5.5% of GDP, have almost never been higher. Consumer debt in general is at historically high levels. The impact of a Federal Funds rate above 5% can be felt harder, knowing that in the past, debt was much lower than GDP when interest rates were even higher.Applying this specifically to Tesla, there is a significant headwind that these higher rates create. We have not yet experienced interest rates being raised this far from near zero, but the effect on auto loans is already starting to be felt.The chart below shows the correlation between the Federal Funds Rate in red, thefinancing rateon 48-month auto loans in blue and total auto sales in green.Federal Reserve (FRED)The first thing to note is that there is usually a 3% spread between Federal Funds and loan rates, unless the interest rate is close to zero. If we have a Federal Funds rate of 5%, it is reasonable to estimate that loan rates will be near 8%, if not higher.Auto loans have been around 4.5% for the past 8 years. That difference will be felt. For example, if we take a standard Model Y, at 4.5% you would end up paying about $7,880 in interest, versus $14,470.Auto Loan CalculatorThat's a difference of about $6590, or a 10.45% increase in the total price when purchased with a loan, due to higher rates. Without taking into account the possibility of declining car sales due to higher unemployment, etc.Auto Loan CalculatorOn Tesla's website in the US you can currently get an APR of 5.34%, and in the EU we could find a rate of about 2% APR on a standard Model Y. For people with lower credit scores trying to buyan affordable car, the impact is even greater. As the Fedand ECBcontinue to raise interest rates, we see this as a serious headwind.As you raise the price, the percentage of people that can afford the car starts to drop exponentially. (Elon Musk,Tesla owners Silicon Valley podcast)Energy Is CurrencyAside from the relative valuation and near-term headwinds, we also would not sell or short Tesla at these prices. With near infinite demand for green and renewable energy storage, Tesla's headwinds in vehicle demand may soon turn into tailwinds as an energy manufacturer.For reference, over the past more than 10 years, the cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen, according to Wright's Law. That means that for every cumulative doubling of the number of units produced, the cost falls by a constant percentage. At about $100/kWh, EVs reach the samesticker priceas internal combustion vehicles, and it no longer becomes economically justifiable to buy those ICE vehicles, since both the initial selling price and the cost of ownership are cheaper for EVs.Author's Graph (Bloomberg Data)Prices currentlyaverage $151/kWh, although some manufacturers in China were already close to $100/kWh by 2022. Recently, commodity prices have heavily depressed the natural decline in battery cell prices. During the Q3 earnings call, Elon Musk told investors that once the 4680 battery cell is fully integrated, he believes there is a path to $70 per kWh cell.BloombergWhat's crazy is that, with the \"inflation reduction act\", Tesla as a manufacturer of battery cells could receive credits worth $35/kWh. They currently work together with Panasonic and had this to say:In the case of Panasonic domestic manufacturing, we're splitting the value of the credits. So it -- the value of credits this year will not be gigantic, but I think it could be gigantic -- we think it probably will be very significant in the future. (Elon Musk, Q4)At 500 GWh, for example, those credits alone would be worth $17.5BN. Not only would that be a game changer, it would make Tesla one of the leaders in mass production of batteries. We think this is crucial, because we firmly believe that the future will be a combination ofbattery cells, wind and solar.This could certainly be a case like Amazon, which some analysts were bearish about in the early 2000s because Amazon's business model then had low margins as an Internet wholesaler. Just as Tesla could see its margins shrink, we believe they will continue to use their cash flow and technological edge to expand as a conglomerate in the areas of energy, robotics, artificial and perhaps self-driving.In Tesla's case, it's a positive feedback loop, even in terms of AI and computing power. Even if it fails to maintain its industry-leading operating margins, they still have the benefit of their AI, data collection, energy and manufacturing/ automation. When training AI models, if you have access to a world-class team, renewable energy,computing(Dojo) and robotics, you are well-prepared to lead in the AI race as well.As we mentioned many times before, we want to be the best manufacturer. But really, manufacturing technology will be our most important long-term strength. (Elon Musk, Q4 Call)The Bottom LineWith a consumer recession around the corner, ahawkish Fed, and uncertainty surrounding Tesla's pricing power, it may be a good idea to exercise some caution and not chase trends and volatility. On the other hand, much can be said about Tesla's important long-term outlook.One thing is certain: if it's bad for Tesla, imagine what it will be like for all the other legacy car manufacturers who riddled in debt and have not been in this situation since before 2008.... Here is a quote from the earnings call to sum everything up, about if interest rates were to get closer to 6%:Basically, the Fed is the risk of crushing the value of all equities, which is quite a serious, danger. (Elon Musk, Q4 Call)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952117468,"gmtCreate":1674527811054,"gmtModify":1676538944932,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952117468","repostId":"2305515112","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2305515112","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1674527499,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2305515112?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-24 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Naked Short Selling Has Suddenly Become a Hot Topic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2305515112","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"A high level of bets against a stock can harm a company's reputation. Here's how some are fighting b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A high level of bets against a stock can harm a company&#39;s reputation. Here&#39;s how some are fighting back against what they call illegal trading activity.</p><p>Short selling can be controversial, especially among management teams of companies whose stocks traders are betting that their prices will fall. And a new spike in alleged &#34;naked short selling&#34; among microcap stocks is making several management teams angry enough to threaten legal action:</p><h2>First, some definitions:</h2><p>Taking a long position means buying a stock and holding it, hoping the price will go up.</p><p>Shorting, or short selling, is when an investor borrows shares and immediately sells them, hoping he or she can buy them again later at a lower price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference.</p><p>Covering is when an investor with a short position buys the stock again to close a short position and return the shares to the lender.</p><p>If you take a long position, you might lose all your money. A stock can go to zero if a company goes bankrupt. But a short position is riskier. If the share price rises steadily after an investor has placed a short trade, the investor is sitting on an unrealized capital loss. This is why short selling traditionally has been dominated by professional investors who base this type of trade on heavy research and conviction.</p><p>Brokers require short sellers to qualify for margin accounts. A broker faces credit exposure to an investor if a stock that has been shorted begins to rise instead of going down. Depending on how high the price rises, the broker will demand more collateral from the investor. The investor may eventually have to cover and close the short with a loss, if the stock rises too much.</p><p>And that type of activity can lead to a short squeeze if many short sellers are surprised at the same time. A short squeeze can send a share price through the roof temporarily.</p><p>Short squeezes helped feed the meme-stock craze of 2021 that sent shares of GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a> and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a> soaring early in 2021. Some traders communicating through the Reddit WallStreetBets channel and in other social media worked together to try to force short squeezes in stocks of troubled companies that had been heavily shorted. The action sent shares of GameStop soaring from $4.82 at the end of 2020 to a closing high of $86.88 on Jan. 27, 2021, only for the stock to fall to $10.15 on Feb. 19, 2021, as the seesaw action continued for this and other meme stocks.</p><h2>Naked shorting</h2><p>Let&#39;s say you were convinced that a company was headed toward financial difficulties or even bankruptcy, but its shares were still trading at a value you considered to be significant. If the shares were highly liquid, you would be able to borrow them through your broker for little or almost no cost, to set up your short trade.</p><p>But if many other investors were shorting the stock, there would be fewer shares available for borrowing. Then your broker would charge a higher fee based on supply and demand.</p><p>For example, according to data provided by FactSet on Jan. 23, 22.7% of GameStop&#39;s shares available for trading were sold short -- a figure that could be up to two weeks out-of-date, according to the financial data provider.</p><p>According to Brad Lamensdorf, who co-manages the AdvisorShares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDGE\">Ranger Equity Bear ETF</a> (HDGE), the cost of borrowing shares of GameStop on Jan. 23 was an annualized 15.5%. That cost increases a short seller&#39;s risk.</p><p>What if you wanted to short a stock that had even heavier short interest than GameStop? Lamensdorf said on Jan. 23 that there were no shares available to borrow for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> (CVNA), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$(BBBY)$</a>, Beyond Meat Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a> or Coinbase Global Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$(COIN)$</a>. If you wanted to short AMC shares, you would pay an annual fee of 85.17% to borrow the shares.</p><p>Starting last week, and flowing into this week, management teams at several companies with microcap stocks (with market capitalizations below $100 million) said they were investigating naked short selling -- short selling without actually borrowing the shares.</p><h2>This brings us to three more terms:</h2><p>A short-locate is a service a short seller requests from a broker. The broker finds shares for the short seller to borrow.</p><p>A natural locate is needed to make a &#34;proper&#34; short-sale, according to Moshe Hurwitz, who recently launched Blue Zen Capital Management in Atlanta to specialize in short selling. The broker gives you a price to borrow shares and places the actual shares in your account. You can then short them if you want to.</p><p>A nonnatural locate is &#34;when the broker gives you shares they do not have,&#34; according to Hurwitz.</p><p>When asked if a nonnatural locate would constitute fraud, Hurwitz said &#34;yes.&#34;</p><p>How is naked short selling possible? According to Hurwitz, &#34;it is incumbent on the brokers&#34; to stop placing borrowed shares in customer accounts when supplies of shares are depleted. But he added that some brokers, even in the U.S., lend out the same shares multiple times, because it is lucrative.</p><p>&#34;The reason they do it is when it comes time to settle, to deliver, they are banking on the fact that most of those people are day traders, so there would be enough shares to deliver.&#34;</p><p>Hurwitz cautioned that the current round of complaints about naked short selling wasn&#39;t unusual and even though short selling activity can push a stock&#39;s price down momentarily, &#34;short sellers are buyers in waiting.&#34; They will eventually buy when they cover their short positions.</p><p>&#34;But to really push a stock price down, you need long investors to sell,&#34; he said.</p><h2>Different action that can appear to be naked shorting</h2><p>Lamensdorf said the illegal naked shorting that Verb Technology Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VERB\">$(VERB)$</a>, Genius Group Ltd. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNS\">$(GNS)$</a> and other microcap companies have been recently complaining about might include activity that isn&#39;t illegal.</p><p>An investor looking to short a stock for which shares weren&#39;t available to borrow, or for which the cost to borrow shares was too high, might enter into &#34;swap transactions or sophisticated over-the-counter derivative transactions,&#34; to bet against the stock,&#34; he said.</p><p>This type of trader would be &#34;pretty sophisticated,&#34; Lamensdorf said. He added that brokers typically have account minimums ranging from $25 million to $50 million for investors making this type of trade. This would mean the trader was likely to be &#34;a decent-sized family office or a fund, with decent liquidity,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Naked Short Selling Has Suddenly Become a Hot Topic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Naked Short Selling Has Suddenly Become a Hot Topic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-24 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A high level of bets against a stock can harm a company&#39;s reputation. Here&#39;s how some are fighting back against what they call illegal trading activity.</p><p>Short selling can be controversial, especially among management teams of companies whose stocks traders are betting that their prices will fall. And a new spike in alleged &#34;naked short selling&#34; among microcap stocks is making several management teams angry enough to threaten legal action:</p><h2>First, some definitions:</h2><p>Taking a long position means buying a stock and holding it, hoping the price will go up.</p><p>Shorting, or short selling, is when an investor borrows shares and immediately sells them, hoping he or she can buy them again later at a lower price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference.</p><p>Covering is when an investor with a short position buys the stock again to close a short position and return the shares to the lender.</p><p>If you take a long position, you might lose all your money. A stock can go to zero if a company goes bankrupt. But a short position is riskier. If the share price rises steadily after an investor has placed a short trade, the investor is sitting on an unrealized capital loss. This is why short selling traditionally has been dominated by professional investors who base this type of trade on heavy research and conviction.</p><p>Brokers require short sellers to qualify for margin accounts. A broker faces credit exposure to an investor if a stock that has been shorted begins to rise instead of going down. Depending on how high the price rises, the broker will demand more collateral from the investor. The investor may eventually have to cover and close the short with a loss, if the stock rises too much.</p><p>And that type of activity can lead to a short squeeze if many short sellers are surprised at the same time. A short squeeze can send a share price through the roof temporarily.</p><p>Short squeezes helped feed the meme-stock craze of 2021 that sent shares of GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a> and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a> soaring early in 2021. Some traders communicating through the Reddit WallStreetBets channel and in other social media worked together to try to force short squeezes in stocks of troubled companies that had been heavily shorted. The action sent shares of GameStop soaring from $4.82 at the end of 2020 to a closing high of $86.88 on Jan. 27, 2021, only for the stock to fall to $10.15 on Feb. 19, 2021, as the seesaw action continued for this and other meme stocks.</p><h2>Naked shorting</h2><p>Let&#39;s say you were convinced that a company was headed toward financial difficulties or even bankruptcy, but its shares were still trading at a value you considered to be significant. If the shares were highly liquid, you would be able to borrow them through your broker for little or almost no cost, to set up your short trade.</p><p>But if many other investors were shorting the stock, there would be fewer shares available for borrowing. Then your broker would charge a higher fee based on supply and demand.</p><p>For example, according to data provided by FactSet on Jan. 23, 22.7% of GameStop&#39;s shares available for trading were sold short -- a figure that could be up to two weeks out-of-date, according to the financial data provider.</p><p>According to Brad Lamensdorf, who co-manages the AdvisorShares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDGE\">Ranger Equity Bear ETF</a> (HDGE), the cost of borrowing shares of GameStop on Jan. 23 was an annualized 15.5%. That cost increases a short seller&#39;s risk.</p><p>What if you wanted to short a stock that had even heavier short interest than GameStop? Lamensdorf said on Jan. 23 that there were no shares available to borrow for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> (CVNA), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$(BBBY)$</a>, Beyond Meat Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$(BYND)$</a> or Coinbase Global Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$(COIN)$</a>. If you wanted to short AMC shares, you would pay an annual fee of 85.17% to borrow the shares.</p><p>Starting last week, and flowing into this week, management teams at several companies with microcap stocks (with market capitalizations below $100 million) said they were investigating naked short selling -- short selling without actually borrowing the shares.</p><h2>This brings us to three more terms:</h2><p>A short-locate is a service a short seller requests from a broker. The broker finds shares for the short seller to borrow.</p><p>A natural locate is needed to make a &#34;proper&#34; short-sale, according to Moshe Hurwitz, who recently launched Blue Zen Capital Management in Atlanta to specialize in short selling. The broker gives you a price to borrow shares and places the actual shares in your account. You can then short them if you want to.</p><p>A nonnatural locate is &#34;when the broker gives you shares they do not have,&#34; according to Hurwitz.</p><p>When asked if a nonnatural locate would constitute fraud, Hurwitz said &#34;yes.&#34;</p><p>How is naked short selling possible? According to Hurwitz, &#34;it is incumbent on the brokers&#34; to stop placing borrowed shares in customer accounts when supplies of shares are depleted. But he added that some brokers, even in the U.S., lend out the same shares multiple times, because it is lucrative.</p><p>&#34;The reason they do it is when it comes time to settle, to deliver, they are banking on the fact that most of those people are day traders, so there would be enough shares to deliver.&#34;</p><p>Hurwitz cautioned that the current round of complaints about naked short selling wasn&#39;t unusual and even though short selling activity can push a stock&#39;s price down momentarily, &#34;short sellers are buyers in waiting.&#34; They will eventually buy when they cover their short positions.</p><p>&#34;But to really push a stock price down, you need long investors to sell,&#34; he said.</p><h2>Different action that can appear to be naked shorting</h2><p>Lamensdorf said the illegal naked shorting that Verb Technology Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VERB\">$(VERB)$</a>, Genius Group Ltd. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNS\">$(GNS)$</a> and other microcap companies have been recently complaining about might include activity that isn&#39;t illegal.</p><p>An investor looking to short a stock for which shares weren&#39;t available to borrow, or for which the cost to borrow shares was too high, might enter into &#34;swap transactions or sophisticated over-the-counter derivative transactions,&#34; to bet against the stock,&#34; he said.</p><p>This type of trader would be &#34;pretty sophisticated,&#34; Lamensdorf said. He added that brokers typically have account minimums ranging from $25 million to $50 million for investors making this type of trade. This would mean the trader was likely to be &#34;a decent-sized family office or a fund, with decent liquidity,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","GME":"游戏驿站","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","AMC":"AMC院线","HDGE":"美股做空ETF-AdvisorShares","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GNS":"Genius Group Limited","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","VERB":"Verb Technology Co., Inc.","BBBY":"3B家居","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4539":"次新股","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","CVNA":"Carvana Co.","BK4178":"家庭装饰零售","BK4204":"教育服务","BK4191":"家用电器","BK4214":"汽车零售","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4007":"制药"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2305515112","content_text":"A high level of bets against a stock can harm a company's reputation. Here's how some are fighting back against what they call illegal trading activity.Short selling can be controversial, especially among management teams of companies whose stocks traders are betting that their prices will fall. And a new spike in alleged \"naked short selling\" among microcap stocks is making several management teams angry enough to threaten legal action:First, some definitions:Taking a long position means buying a stock and holding it, hoping the price will go up.Shorting, or short selling, is when an investor borrows shares and immediately sells them, hoping he or she can buy them again later at a lower price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference.Covering is when an investor with a short position buys the stock again to close a short position and return the shares to the lender.If you take a long position, you might lose all your money. A stock can go to zero if a company goes bankrupt. But a short position is riskier. If the share price rises steadily after an investor has placed a short trade, the investor is sitting on an unrealized capital loss. This is why short selling traditionally has been dominated by professional investors who base this type of trade on heavy research and conviction.Brokers require short sellers to qualify for margin accounts. A broker faces credit exposure to an investor if a stock that has been shorted begins to rise instead of going down. Depending on how high the price rises, the broker will demand more collateral from the investor. The investor may eventually have to cover and close the short with a loss, if the stock rises too much.And that type of activity can lead to a short squeeze if many short sellers are surprised at the same time. A short squeeze can send a share price through the roof temporarily.Short squeezes helped feed the meme-stock craze of 2021 that sent shares of GameStop Corp. $(GME)$ and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. $(AMC)$ soaring early in 2021. Some traders communicating through the Reddit WallStreetBets channel and in other social media worked together to try to force short squeezes in stocks of troubled companies that had been heavily shorted. The action sent shares of GameStop soaring from $4.82 at the end of 2020 to a closing high of $86.88 on Jan. 27, 2021, only for the stock to fall to $10.15 on Feb. 19, 2021, as the seesaw action continued for this and other meme stocks.Naked shortingLet's say you were convinced that a company was headed toward financial difficulties or even bankruptcy, but its shares were still trading at a value you considered to be significant. If the shares were highly liquid, you would be able to borrow them through your broker for little or almost no cost, to set up your short trade.But if many other investors were shorting the stock, there would be fewer shares available for borrowing. Then your broker would charge a higher fee based on supply and demand.For example, according to data provided by FactSet on Jan. 23, 22.7% of GameStop's shares available for trading were sold short -- a figure that could be up to two weeks out-of-date, according to the financial data provider.According to Brad Lamensdorf, who co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE), the cost of borrowing shares of GameStop on Jan. 23 was an annualized 15.5%. That cost increases a short seller's risk.What if you wanted to short a stock that had even heavier short interest than GameStop? Lamensdorf said on Jan. 23 that there were no shares available to borrow for Carvana Co. (CVNA), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. $(BBBY)$, Beyond Meat Inc. $(BYND)$ or Coinbase Global Inc. $(COIN)$. If you wanted to short AMC shares, you would pay an annual fee of 85.17% to borrow the shares.Starting last week, and flowing into this week, management teams at several companies with microcap stocks (with market capitalizations below $100 million) said they were investigating naked short selling -- short selling without actually borrowing the shares.This brings us to three more terms:A short-locate is a service a short seller requests from a broker. The broker finds shares for the short seller to borrow.A natural locate is needed to make a \"proper\" short-sale, according to Moshe Hurwitz, who recently launched Blue Zen Capital Management in Atlanta to specialize in short selling. The broker gives you a price to borrow shares and places the actual shares in your account. You can then short them if you want to.A nonnatural locate is \"when the broker gives you shares they do not have,\" according to Hurwitz.When asked if a nonnatural locate would constitute fraud, Hurwitz said \"yes.\"How is naked short selling possible? According to Hurwitz, \"it is incumbent on the brokers\" to stop placing borrowed shares in customer accounts when supplies of shares are depleted. But he added that some brokers, even in the U.S., lend out the same shares multiple times, because it is lucrative.\"The reason they do it is when it comes time to settle, to deliver, they are banking on the fact that most of those people are day traders, so there would be enough shares to deliver.\"Hurwitz cautioned that the current round of complaints about naked short selling wasn't unusual and even though short selling activity can push a stock's price down momentarily, \"short sellers are buyers in waiting.\" They will eventually buy when they cover their short positions.\"But to really push a stock price down, you need long investors to sell,\" he said.Different action that can appear to be naked shortingLamensdorf said the illegal naked shorting that Verb Technology Co. $(VERB)$, Genius Group Ltd. $(GNS)$ and other microcap companies have been recently complaining about might include activity that isn't illegal.An investor looking to short a stock for which shares weren't available to borrow, or for which the cost to borrow shares was too high, might enter into \"swap transactions or sophisticated over-the-counter derivative transactions,\" to bet against the stock,\" he said.This type of trader would be \"pretty sophisticated,\" Lamensdorf said. He added that brokers typically have account minimums ranging from $25 million to $50 million for investors making this type of trade. This would mean the trader was likely to be \"a decent-sized family office or a fund, with decent liquidity,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952749828,"gmtCreate":1675037148864,"gmtModify":1676538970694,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952749828","repostId":"2307434192","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2307434192","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1675033274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2307434192?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-30 07:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple and Amazon Earnings, a Federal Reserve Decision, January Jobs Data, and More for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2307434192","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It will be another major week of fourth-quarter earnings, with about 10","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It will be another major week of fourth-quarter earnings, with about 100 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report. There will also be a highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest-rate decision on Wednesday and the latest job-market data on Thursday and Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earnings highlights will include GE HealthCare Technologies and NXP Semiconductors on Monday, then  Advanced Micro Devices, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, General Motors, McDonald's, Pfizer, and United Parcel Service on Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday will bring results from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and T-Mobile US, followed by a busy Thursday:  Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Eli Lilly, Ford Motor, Merck, Qualcomm, and Starbucks all report. Cigna, LyondellBasell Industries, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCVRZ\">Sanofi</a> will close the week on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The main event on this week's economic calendar will be Wednesday's conclusion of a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The central bank is widely expected to raise the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%. As always, the post-meeting press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched for hints to the Fed's next moves. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The economic-data highlight of the week will be Friday's jobs report for January. Economist consensus calls for a 190,000-strong rise in nonfarm payrolls, following a gain of 223,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up a tenth of a point, to 3.6%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other data out this week will include S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>'s Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November on Tuesday and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 1/30 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Franklin Resources, GE HealthCare Technologies, and NXP Semiconductors report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 1/31 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, Caterpillar, Chubb, Edwards Lifesciences, Electronic Arts, Exxon Mobil, General Motors, Marathon Petroleum, McDonald's, Mondelez International, Moody's, MSCI, Pfizer, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>, Stryker, Sysco, and United Parcel Service announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases the Chicago Business Barometer for January. Consensus estimate is for a 45.5 reading, roughly even with December. The index has had four consecutive readings below 50, indicating a contracting economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     S&amp;P CoreLogic releases the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November. Economists forecast a 7% year-over-year rise, compared with 9.2% increase previously. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 2/1 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Allstate, Altria Group, Boston Scientific, Corteva, GSK, Johnson Controls International, Humana, Meta Platforms, MetLife, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ODFL\">Old Dominion Freight Line</a>, Thermo Fisher Scientific, T-Mobile US, and Waste Management release quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to raise the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%. Wall Street is eager to hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and glean any hints as to when the FOMC might pause its interest-rate hiking campaign. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for January. Expectations are for the economy to add 170,000 jobs after an increase of 235,000 in December. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 10.3 million job openings on the last business day of December, 158,000 fewer than in November. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 2/2 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Big Tech headlines a big day for earnings. Three of the four largest U.S. companies by market value, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and Apple, all release results after the market close. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Becton Dickinson, Bristol Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, Eli Lilly, Estée Lauder, Ford Motor, Gilead Sciences, Hershey, Honeywell International, Intercontinental Exchange, Merck, Qualcomm, Shell, and Starbucks hold conference calls to discuss earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 2/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Aon, Cboe Global Markets, Cigna, LyondellBasell Industries, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and Sanofi report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for January. Economists forecast a 190,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, after a 223,000 gain in December. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 3.6% from 3.5%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  January 30, 2023 08:43 ET (13:43 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple and Amazon Earnings, a Federal Reserve Decision, January Jobs Data, and More for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple and Amazon Earnings, a Federal Reserve Decision, January Jobs Data, and More for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-30 07:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It will be another major week of fourth-quarter earnings, with about 100 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report. There will also be a highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest-rate decision on Wednesday and the latest job-market data on Thursday and Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earnings highlights will include GE HealthCare Technologies and NXP Semiconductors on Monday, then  Advanced Micro Devices, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, General Motors, McDonald's, Pfizer, and United Parcel Service on Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday will bring results from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and T-Mobile US, followed by a busy Thursday:  Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Eli Lilly, Ford Motor, Merck, Qualcomm, and Starbucks all report. Cigna, LyondellBasell Industries, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCVRZ\">Sanofi</a> will close the week on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The main event on this week's economic calendar will be Wednesday's conclusion of a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The central bank is widely expected to raise the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%. As always, the post-meeting press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched for hints to the Fed's next moves. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The economic-data highlight of the week will be Friday's jobs report for January. Economist consensus calls for a 190,000-strong rise in nonfarm payrolls, following a gain of 223,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up a tenth of a point, to 3.6%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other data out this week will include S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>'s Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November on Tuesday and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 1/30 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Franklin Resources, GE HealthCare Technologies, and NXP Semiconductors report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 1/31 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, Caterpillar, Chubb, Edwards Lifesciences, Electronic Arts, Exxon Mobil, General Motors, Marathon Petroleum, McDonald's, Mondelez International, Moody's, MSCI, Pfizer, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>, Stryker, Sysco, and United Parcel Service announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases the Chicago Business Barometer for January. Consensus estimate is for a 45.5 reading, roughly even with December. The index has had four consecutive readings below 50, indicating a contracting economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     S&amp;P CoreLogic releases the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November. Economists forecast a 7% year-over-year rise, compared with 9.2% increase previously. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 2/1 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Allstate, Altria Group, Boston Scientific, Corteva, GSK, Johnson Controls International, Humana, Meta Platforms, MetLife, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ODFL\">Old Dominion Freight Line</a>, Thermo Fisher Scientific, T-Mobile US, and Waste Management release quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to raise the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%. Wall Street is eager to hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and glean any hints as to when the FOMC might pause its interest-rate hiking campaign. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for January. Expectations are for the economy to add 170,000 jobs after an increase of 235,000 in December. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 10.3 million job openings on the last business day of December, 158,000 fewer than in November. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 2/2 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Big Tech headlines a big day for earnings. Three of the four largest U.S. companies by market value, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and Apple, all release results after the market close. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Becton Dickinson, Bristol Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, Eli Lilly, Estée Lauder, Ford Motor, Gilead Sciences, Hershey, Honeywell International, Intercontinental Exchange, Merck, Qualcomm, Shell, and Starbucks hold conference calls to discuss earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 2/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Aon, Cboe Global Markets, Cigna, LyondellBasell Industries, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and Sanofi report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for January. Economists forecast a 190,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, after a 223,000 gain in December. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 3.6% from 3.5%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  January 30, 2023 08:43 ET (13:43 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ISBC":"投资者银行","XOM":"埃克森美孚","AMZN":"亚马逊","GEHC":"GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES INC","GE":"GE航空航天","AMD":"美国超微公司","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2307434192","content_text":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It will be another major week of fourth-quarter earnings, with about 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. There will also be a highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest-rate decision on Wednesday and the latest job-market data on Thursday and Friday. \n\n\n     Earnings highlights will include GE HealthCare Technologies and NXP Semiconductors on Monday, then  Advanced Micro Devices, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, General Motors, McDonald's, Pfizer, and United Parcel Service on Tuesday. \n\n\n     Wednesday will bring results from Meta Platforms, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and T-Mobile US, followed by a busy Thursday:  Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Eli Lilly, Ford Motor, Merck, Qualcomm, and Starbucks all report. Cigna, LyondellBasell Industries, and Sanofi will close the week on Friday. \n\n\n     The main event on this week's economic calendar will be Wednesday's conclusion of a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The central bank is widely expected to raise the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%. As always, the post-meeting press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched for hints to the Fed's next moves. \n\n\n     The economic-data highlight of the week will be Friday's jobs report for January. Economist consensus calls for a 190,000-strong rise in nonfarm payrolls, following a gain of 223,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up a tenth of a point, to 3.6%. \n\n\n     Other data out this week will include S&P CoreLogic's Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November on Tuesday and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December on Thursday. \n\n\n     Monday 1/30 \n\n\n     Franklin Resources, GE HealthCare Technologies, and NXP Semiconductors report quarterly results. \n\n\n     Tuesday 1/31 \n\n\n     Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, Caterpillar, Chubb, Edwards Lifesciences, Electronic Arts, Exxon Mobil, General Motors, Marathon Petroleum, McDonald's, Mondelez International, Moody's, MSCI, Pfizer, Phillips 66, Stryker, Sysco, and United Parcel Service announce earnings. \n\n\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases the Chicago Business Barometer for January. Consensus estimate is for a 45.5 reading, roughly even with December. The index has had four consecutive readings below 50, indicating a contracting economy. \n\n\n     S&P CoreLogic releases the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November. Economists forecast a 7% year-over-year rise, compared with 9.2% increase previously. \n\n\n     Wednesday 2/1 \n\n\n     Allstate, Altria Group, Boston Scientific, Corteva, GSK, Johnson Controls International, Humana, Meta Platforms, MetLife, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Old Dominion Freight Line, Thermo Fisher Scientific, T-Mobile US, and Waste Management release quarterly results. \n\n\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to raise the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%. Wall Street is eager to hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and glean any hints as to when the FOMC might pause its interest-rate hiking campaign. \n\n\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for January. Expectations are for the economy to add 170,000 jobs after an increase of 235,000 in December. \n\n\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 10.3 million job openings on the last business day of December, 158,000 fewer than in November. \n\n\n     Thursday 2/2 \n\n\n     Big Tech headlines a big day for earnings. Three of the four largest U.S. companies by market value, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and Apple, all release results after the market close. \n\n\n     Becton Dickinson, Bristol Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, Eli Lilly, Estée Lauder, Ford Motor, Gilead Sciences, Hershey, Honeywell International, Intercontinental Exchange, Merck, Qualcomm, Shell, and Starbucks hold conference calls to discuss earnings. \n\n\n     Friday 2/3 \n\n\n     Aon, Cboe Global Markets, Cigna, LyondellBasell Industries, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and Sanofi report quarterly results. \n\n\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for January. Economists forecast a 190,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, after a 223,000 gain in December. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 3.6% from 3.5%. \n\n\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  January 30, 2023 08:43 ET (13:43 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966567387,"gmtCreate":1669595972050,"gmtModify":1676538210444,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966567387","repostId":"1198835584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198835584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669589744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198835584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 06:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198835584","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the wee","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the week ahead as Wall Street heads into the final month of 2022 and braces for the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate hike of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e084694ac7c797625be53771937802\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The government’s monthly employment report, data on the housing market, a second look at GDP growth, PCE inflation, and a reading on consumer confidence are among the many highlights of a busy economic calendar in the coming days.</p><p>The Labor Department’s latest employment report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning, will highlight the schedule.</p><p>Economists expect nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg. If realized, the number would mark another downtrend in the labor market but reflect still-robust hiring on a historical basis.</p><p>Strong labor market readings havestoked worries that Fed officials will stay the courseon aggressive rate hikes and overshoot on monetary tightening.</p><p>“Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations, “ Capital Economics chief global economist Jennifer McKeown said in a recent note. “However, this resilience probably also reflects a lag before higher interest rates transmit to the economy and firms are forced to reduce employment.”</p><p>On the inflation front, investors will be watching the personal consumption expenditures&#39; (PCE) price index out Thursday to see whether the recent trend of easing inflation holds up. On a monthly basis, PCE is expected to show a 0.4% rise in October, up from 0.3% during the prior month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the prior year, PCE inflation is expected to have eased to a rate of 6% from 6.2% previously.</p><p>According to Bank of America’sNovember fund manager survey, investors do not expect the Fed to pivot – or change course on rate hikes – until U.S. PCE inflation falls below 4%.</p><p>For traders, this year&#39;s action has been all about what the Federal Reserve will do next, and fresh economic figures should offer clues about whether a 50- or 75-basis-point increase in the Fed&#39;s benchmark interest rate range awaits investors in mid-December.</p><p>As of Sunday morning,markets were pricing ina roughly 75% chance the Federal Reserve will deliver a 50-basis-point rate hike following the conclusion of its next meeting on December 15, data from the CME Group showed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa8de8c2a5adf749e95d135caffd002\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a news conference in Washington, DC, on November 2, 2022.</span></p><p>Areadout of minutes from the Fed’s November meetingalso indicated a “substantial majority” of officials believe it will soon be time to slow the current pace of increases. But a strong November jobs report and higher than expected PCE figure may dash deceleration hopes.</p><p>“It’s premature in my mind to take anything off the table,” San Francisco Fed PresidentMary Daly said last weekwhen asked whether a 75-basis point rate hike is still possible. “I’m going into the [Fed&#39;s December 14-15] meeting with the full range of adjustments that we could make on the table and not taking off prematurely.”</p><p>While investors are hopeful for a meaningful slowdown in inflation and a subsequent policy shift over the next year, some Wall Street strategists are raising doubts about the Federal Reserve’s ability to fulfill its goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.</p><p>Strategists at theBlackRock Investment Institute warned last weekglobal investors are in a “new macro regime where central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue.”</p><p>“That is clear in the rate path of major central banks set to overtighten policy as they battle inflation,” BlackRock&#39;s team, led by Jean Boivin, said in weekly commentary. “We think they will eventually pause but not cut rates when confronted with the damage of sharp rate hikes – that could be the reality of recession or the appearance of financial cracks, as seen in the U.K.”</p><p>Billionaire hedge funder Bill Ackman alsosaid in a recent call with investorsinterest rates are &#34;meaningfully below where they are going to go,” and the firm does not believe the Federal Reserve will be able to get inflation back to a consistent 2% level.</p><p>&#34;We think that is, of course, a risk for equities,&#34; Ackman said. &#34;And part of our thesis is we think inflation is going to be structurally higher.&#34;</p><p>Elsewhere in economic data this week, a second estimate of third-quarter GDP, Case-Shiller home price data, manufacturing activity gauges, and the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence are all on tap.</p><p>Investors are ready to close the curtains on the latest earnings season, but some standout reports will still be released, including Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Salesforce (CRM), Dollar General (DG), and Kroger (KR).</p><p>Last week, U.S. markets continued to build on recent moment in a week of trading shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500ended modestly loweron Black Friday but finished the week in the green, up roughly 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also advanced over the three and a half-day trading period, each rising 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><h2>Economic Calendar</h2><p><b>Monday:</b> <b><i>Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity</i></b>, November (-23.0 expected, -19.4 during prior month)</p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> <b><i>FHFA Housing Pricing Index</i></b>, September (-1.3% expected, -0.7% during prior month); <b><i>House Price Purchasing Index</i></b>, Q3 (4.0% during prior quarter); <b><i>S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-1.15% expected, -1.32% during prior month); <b><i>S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite</i></b>, year-over-year, September (10.65% expected, 13.08% during prior month); <b><i>S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index</i></b>(12.99% during prior month); <b><i>Conference Board Consumer Confidence</i></b>, November (100.0 expected, 102.5 during prior month)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> <b><i>MBA Mortgage Applications</i></b>, week ended Nov. 25 (2.2% during prior week); <b><i>ADP Employment Change</i></b>, November (195,000 expected, 239,000 during prior month); <b><i>GDP Annualized</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (2.7% expected, 2.6% prior estimate);<b><i>Personal Consumption</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (1.5% expected, 1.4% prior estimate); <b><i>GDP Price Index</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.1% expected, 4.1% prior estimate); <b><i>Core PCE</i></b>, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.5% prior estimate); <b><i>Advance Goods Trade Balance</i></b>, September (-$90.2 billion expected, -$92.2 billion during prior month); <b><i>Wholesale Inventories</i></b>, month-over-month, October preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.6% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Inventories</i></b>, month-over-month, October (0.4% during prior month);<b><i>MNI Chicago PMI,</i></b>November (47.0 expected, 45.2 during prior month); <b><i>PendingHome Sales</i></b>, month-over-month, October (-5.2% expected, -10.2% during prior month); <b><i>JOLTS Job Openings</i></b>, October (10.325 million expected, 10.717 million during prior month); <b><i>Federal Reserve Beige Book</i></b></p><p><b>Thursday:</b> <b><i>Challenger Job Cuts</i></b>, year-over-year, November (48.3% during prior month); <b><i>Personal Income</i></b>, October (0.4% expected, 0.4% during prior month); <b><i>Personal Spending</i></b>, October (0.6% expected, 0.8% during prior month); <b><i>PCE Deflator</i></b>, month-over-month, October (0.4% expected, 0.3% during prior month);<b><i>PCE Deflator</i></b>, year-over-year, October (6.0% expected, 6.2% during prior month); <b><i>PCE Core Deflator</i></b>, month-over-month, October (0.3% expected, 0.5% during prior month); <b><i>PCE Core Deflator</i></b>, year-over-year, October (5.0% expected, 5.1% during prior month); <b><i>Initial Jobless Claims</i></b>, week ended Nov. 26 (240,000 during prior week); <b><i>Continuing Claims,</i></b>week ended Nov. 19 (1.551 million during prior week); <b><i>S&amp;P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI</i></b>, November final (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); <b><i>Construction Spending</i></b>, month-over-month, October (-0.2% expected, -0.2% during prior month); <b><i>ISM Manufacturing</i></b>, November (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); <b><i>ISM Prices Paid</i></b>, November (46.6 during prior month); <b><i>ISM New Orders</i></b>, September (49.2 during prior month); <b><i>ISM Employment</i></b>, November (50.0 during prior month); <b><i>WARDS Total Vehicle Sales</i></b>, November (14.90 million expected, 14.90 prior month)</p><p><b>Friday:</b><b><i>Change in Nonfarm Payrolls</i></b>, November (200,000 expected, 216,000 during prior month); <b><i>Unemployment Rate</i></b>, November (3.7% expected, 3.7% during prior month); <b><i>Average Hourly Earnings</i></b>, month-over-month, November (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month);<b><i>Average Hourly Earnings</i></b>, year-over-year, November (4.6% expected, 4.7% prior month); <b><i>Average Weekly Hours All Employees</i></b>, November (34.5 expected, 34.5 during prior month); <b><i>Labor Force Participation Rate</i></b>, November (62.3% expected, 62.3% during prior month); <b><i>Underemployment Rate</i></b>, November (60.8% prior month)</p><p>—</p><h2><b>Earnings Calendar</b></h2><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40d1324fad197369d0fd7fc5d75b1b5\" tg-width=\"2027\" tg-height=\"1426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Monday:</b> Arrowhead (ARWR), AZEK (AZEK)</p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> Baozun (BZUN), Bilibili (BILI), Compass Minerals (CMP), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Hibbett (HIBB), Intuit (INTU), NetApp (NTAP), Workday (WDAY)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> Donaldson (DCI), Five Below (FIVE), Frontline (FRO), Hormel Foods (HRL), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Nutanix (NTNX), Okta (OKTA), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Pure Storage (PSTG), PVH (PVH), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), Synopsys (SNPS), Titan Machinery (TITN), Victoria&#39;s Secret (VSCO)</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> Ambarella (AMBA), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT), Big Lots (BIG), ChargePoint (CHPT), Designer Brands (DBI), Dollar General (DG), G-III Apparel (GIII), Kroger (KR), Li Auto (LI), Manchester United (MANU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Patterson Companies (PDCO), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Weber (WEBR), Zscaler (ZS)</p><p><b>Friday:</b> Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Genesco (GCO)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs, Housing Data, GDP Bring Investors Into December: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-28 06:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-lookahead-november-jobs-report-federal-reserve-182021843.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the week ahead as Wall Street heads into the final month of 2022 and braces for the Federal Reserve’s last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-lookahead-november-jobs-report-federal-reserve-182021843.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-lookahead-november-jobs-report-federal-reserve-182021843.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198835584","content_text":"Investors returning from the Thanksgiving holiday will face a deluge of economic releases in the week ahead as Wall Street heads into the final month of 2022 and braces for the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate hike of the year.The government’s monthly employment report, data on the housing market, a second look at GDP growth, PCE inflation, and a reading on consumer confidence are among the many highlights of a busy economic calendar in the coming days.The Labor Department’s latest employment report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning, will highlight the schedule.Economists expect nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg. If realized, the number would mark another downtrend in the labor market but reflect still-robust hiring on a historical basis.Strong labor market readings havestoked worries that Fed officials will stay the courseon aggressive rate hikes and overshoot on monetary tightening.“Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations, “ Capital Economics chief global economist Jennifer McKeown said in a recent note. “However, this resilience probably also reflects a lag before higher interest rates transmit to the economy and firms are forced to reduce employment.”On the inflation front, investors will be watching the personal consumption expenditures' (PCE) price index out Thursday to see whether the recent trend of easing inflation holds up. On a monthly basis, PCE is expected to show a 0.4% rise in October, up from 0.3% during the prior month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the prior year, PCE inflation is expected to have eased to a rate of 6% from 6.2% previously.According to Bank of America’sNovember fund manager survey, investors do not expect the Fed to pivot – or change course on rate hikes – until U.S. PCE inflation falls below 4%.For traders, this year's action has been all about what the Federal Reserve will do next, and fresh economic figures should offer clues about whether a 50- or 75-basis-point increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate range awaits investors in mid-December.As of Sunday morning,markets were pricing ina roughly 75% chance the Federal Reserve will deliver a 50-basis-point rate hike following the conclusion of its next meeting on December 15, data from the CME Group showed.Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a news conference in Washington, DC, on November 2, 2022.Areadout of minutes from the Fed’s November meetingalso indicated a “substantial majority” of officials believe it will soon be time to slow the current pace of increases. But a strong November jobs report and higher than expected PCE figure may dash deceleration hopes.“It’s premature in my mind to take anything off the table,” San Francisco Fed PresidentMary Daly said last weekwhen asked whether a 75-basis point rate hike is still possible. “I’m going into the [Fed's December 14-15] meeting with the full range of adjustments that we could make on the table and not taking off prematurely.”While investors are hopeful for a meaningful slowdown in inflation and a subsequent policy shift over the next year, some Wall Street strategists are raising doubts about the Federal Reserve’s ability to fulfill its goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.Strategists at theBlackRock Investment Institute warned last weekglobal investors are in a “new macro regime where central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue.”“That is clear in the rate path of major central banks set to overtighten policy as they battle inflation,” BlackRock's team, led by Jean Boivin, said in weekly commentary. “We think they will eventually pause but not cut rates when confronted with the damage of sharp rate hikes – that could be the reality of recession or the appearance of financial cracks, as seen in the U.K.”Billionaire hedge funder Bill Ackman alsosaid in a recent call with investorsinterest rates are \"meaningfully below where they are going to go,” and the firm does not believe the Federal Reserve will be able to get inflation back to a consistent 2% level.\"We think that is, of course, a risk for equities,\" Ackman said. \"And part of our thesis is we think inflation is going to be structurally higher.\"Elsewhere in economic data this week, a second estimate of third-quarter GDP, Case-Shiller home price data, manufacturing activity gauges, and the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence are all on tap.Investors are ready to close the curtains on the latest earnings season, but some standout reports will still be released, including Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Salesforce (CRM), Dollar General (DG), and Kroger (KR).Last week, U.S. markets continued to build on recent moment in a week of trading shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.The S&P 500ended modestly loweron Black Friday but finished the week in the green, up roughly 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also advanced over the three and a half-day trading period, each rising 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively.Economic CalendarMonday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, November (-23.0 expected, -19.4 during prior month)Tuesday: FHFA Housing Pricing Index, September (-1.3% expected, -0.7% during prior month); House Price Purchasing Index, Q3 (4.0% during prior quarter); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, September (-1.15% expected, -1.32% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, September (10.65% expected, 13.08% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index(12.99% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, November (100.0 expected, 102.5 during prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Nov. 25 (2.2% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (195,000 expected, 239,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (2.7% expected, 2.6% prior estimate);Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (1.5% expected, 1.4% prior estimate); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.1% expected, 4.1% prior estimate); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.5% prior estimate); Advance Goods Trade Balance, September (-$90.2 billion expected, -$92.2 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, October preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.6% during prior month); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, October (0.4% during prior month);MNI Chicago PMI,November (47.0 expected, 45.2 during prior month); PendingHome Sales, month-over-month, October (-5.2% expected, -10.2% during prior month); JOLTS Job Openings, October (10.325 million expected, 10.717 million during prior month); Federal Reserve Beige BookThursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, November (48.3% during prior month); Personal Income, October (0.4% expected, 0.4% during prior month); Personal Spending, October (0.6% expected, 0.8% during prior month); PCE Deflator, month-over-month, October (0.4% expected, 0.3% during prior month);PCE Deflator, year-over-year, October (6.0% expected, 6.2% during prior month); PCE Core Deflator, month-over-month, October (0.3% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE Core Deflator, year-over-year, October (5.0% expected, 5.1% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended Nov. 26 (240,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims,week ended Nov. 19 (1.551 million during prior week); S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (-0.2% expected, -0.2% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, November (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, November (46.6 during prior month); ISM New Orders, September (49.2 during prior month); ISM Employment, November (50.0 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, November (14.90 million expected, 14.90 prior month)Friday:Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, November (200,000 expected, 216,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, November (3.7% expected, 3.7% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month);Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (4.6% expected, 4.7% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, November (34.5 expected, 34.5 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, November (62.3% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, November (60.8% prior month)—Earnings CalendarMonday: Arrowhead (ARWR), AZEK (AZEK)Tuesday: Baozun (BZUN), Bilibili (BILI), Compass Minerals (CMP), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Hibbett (HIBB), Intuit (INTU), NetApp (NTAP), Workday (WDAY)Wednesday: Donaldson (DCI), Five Below (FIVE), Frontline (FRO), Hormel Foods (HRL), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Nutanix (NTNX), Okta (OKTA), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Pure Storage (PSTG), PVH (PVH), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), Synopsys (SNPS), Titan Machinery (TITN), Victoria's Secret (VSCO)Thursday: Ambarella (AMBA), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT), Big Lots (BIG), ChargePoint (CHPT), Designer Brands (DBI), Dollar General (DG), G-III Apparel (GIII), Kroger (KR), Li Auto (LI), Manchester United (MANU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Patterson Companies (PDCO), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Weber (WEBR), Zscaler (ZS)Friday: Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Genesco (GCO)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961306137,"gmtCreate":1668827946830,"gmtModify":1676538119308,"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961306137","repostId":"1143890380","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143890380","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668822759,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143890380?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-19 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143890380","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New ga","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Further uncertainty for Sea Limited&#39;s Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.</li><li>Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the material improvements in unit economics, and they are expected to be profitable by FY23.</li><li>SeaBank&#39;s credit business is growing strongly and its overall credit business is profitable and cash flow positive. Its revenue now makes up 10.4% of its overall revenue.</li><li>Execution has been on point in attaining profitability although that resulted in declining growth in FY22. Management believes growth can reaccelerate once it achieves profitability.</li><li>Sea Limited has sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes.</li></ul><h3>Investment Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Limited</a> has come under much scrutiny in the past 2 years as the shift in focus from growth to profitability and macro headwinds have led to a massive growth decline across itsShopee and Garena units. While this is unfortunate, management has executed brilliantly so far to turn the company into an increasingly self-sufficient business in the near term.</p><p>In this article, I attempt to dive deeper into itsQ3 2022 resultand provide an overall analysis of the earnings. Although I’d like to highlight that the management has explicitly stated that growth can reaccelerate after attaining profitability and that they have a sufficient cash reserve to pay off the convertible notes sitting on the balance sheet.</p><h3>Garena<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab8fe0ed7909a98b7fdf0b930bc362df\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></h3><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8386bb1c95c3d5300e1fe0f371528199\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>Garena’s QAU and QPU continued to decline sequentially, as the management’s anticipation of its user base stabilizing did not materialize. The macro headwinds continue to be a headache, and it seems that there is more uncertainty lying ahead for Garena Free Fire. The key forward is to focus on launching new games, with games such asPrimitive EraandBlack Clover Mobilelaunching recently. While this indicates that management is working hard to reaccelerate Garena’s growth, it is important to recognize that the success of games is not guaranteed, and this is the bigger uncertainty for the business. As a result, this caused its adjusted EBITDA margin to further decline to 32.5% during the quarter.</p><p>Additionally, management states that the expiry of the agreement with Riot Games will have no impact on Garena’s publishing business, and Garena is seeking other top-game developers for their publishing business.</p><p>Shopee<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b7f33be279fa015f52addd35b55d96\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aaff49a0ba8c901eadda2b7cf01a391\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q</p><p>Shopee’s GMV grew 14% Y/Y and the number of orders grew 18% Y/Y, a continuous decline in the past couple of quarters. This is a result of management pulling back on its sales and marketing (“S&amp;M”) expenses, exiting multiple markets, cutting costs aggressively (such as hiring), and lastly, the lower consumer discretionary spending. This is in contrast to Lazada (NYSE: BABA), as the number oforders declined Y/Yand they are also prioritizing profitability through increased monetization.</p><p>While this does show that consumers continue to spend on Shopee in SEA, its GMV and number of orders are partially contributed by Shopee Brazil. In a tough macro environment, Shopee experienced a 36% Y/Y growth in the number of brands on the platform, indicating that Shopee is an increasingly important partner in growing its online revenue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e09e1e030c482f41afaf8695896f9ec\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q</p><p>The more important portion is Shopee’s improvement in profitability. Its overall adjusted EBITDA loss per order continues to improve by 23.5% sequentially, and more specifically, Shopee Brazil’s loss per order improved by 27.5% sequentially during the quarter as compared to 6.6% in the last quarter. Moreover, Shopee is expected to attain profitability by FY23 instead of FY25 as previously guided by the management. This goes to show that the management has made great strides in pursuing profitability, which is impressive in my view. Once it attained self-sufficiency, growth can reaccelerate, although, the management is expecting flat or negative growth in certain metrics in the near term.</p><h3>SeaBank</h3><p><i>Note that I will be using “SeaBank” and “SeaMoney” interchangeably.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0cb77d6ac22f50a1208eaf075db51c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>SeaMoney’s loan receivables grew 46% from 4Q21 and 110% from 3Q21 to $2.2 billion. These are loans provided to customers whereby SeaMoney generates revenue by charging interest rates, and it has been growing quickly. In myprevious article, I showed that in Sep 2022, SeaBank Indonesia grew its loans and customer deposits by 111% Y/Y and 147% Y/Y, respectively, and the launch of ShopeePay in Brazil. During the earnings call, management stated that the credit business is profitable and cash flow positive, and it will be focusing on growing this business in Southeast Asia (“SEA”) and Brazil.</p><p>Additionally, they have also said to diversify their source of funding for the credit business, which I believe is to seek third-party financing partners to reduce the capital required for the business and at the same time, reduce credit risk. Similar to Bank Jago (IDX: ARTO), SeaBank may utilize the data of its partners to help improve the non-performing loans and scale its lending. Readers who are unaware of SeaBank’s business model can head to mydeep diveinto the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de194897c03f180f99a0dd2b75bf2d0\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5932cc09aca0134084217800afb30399\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6205c82c79c753720862ed8385dd0e2a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>As a result of its growing deposits and loan books, its Q3 2022 revenue grew 147% Y/Y, and it has been increasingly making up a bigger portion of its overall revenue at 10.4% this quarter. Management had also been deliberate in cutting down on S&amp;M expenses and combined with its acceleration revenue growth, its adjusted EBITDA margin has improved massively to -20.7% during the quarter. This is compared to -40% in 2Q22 and -120.3% a year ago.</p><h3>Sufficient Cash Reserves To Pay off Convertible Notes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff585449530fce4084e7d1447e077b4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></h3><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>One of the biggest concerns about Sea Limited for investors is the cash burn rate, as they fear that the company does not have enough sufficient cash reserves to pay off convertible notes maturing in 2026. However, not only did the cash outflow slow in Q3 2022, but the management has also hinted that there are sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes:</p><blockquote>“We aim to continue to maintain a net cash position, after budgeting for the full retirement in cash of outstanding convertible bonds and assuming no external funding.”</blockquote><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Overall, this was a pretty decent quarter for Sea Limited, as we could see that they had made huge improvements on the road to profitability, particularly for Shopee. While that comes at a growth trade-off, management has indicated that Shopee can reaccelerate its growth after attaining profitability in FY23, which is pulled forward from FY25 as guided previously.</p><p>Garena&#39;s results continue to be a concern as macro seems to have a longer-than-expected impact on its user base and its profitability as a result has been trending downwards over the past couple of quarters. Management has been working hard on its gaming pipelines, although the uncertainty lies in the successes of these new games and whether they could reaccelerate their growth in the future.</p><p>SeaBank has been growing its top line really quickly and huge improvements were made on the bottom line as well. Furthermore, the overall credit business is profitable and is generating positive cash flow, and has been increasingly making up a larger proportion of its total revenue. I continue to believe that this can be a potential growth driver for Sea Limited.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-19 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143890380","content_text":"SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the material improvements in unit economics, and they are expected to be profitable by FY23.SeaBank's credit business is growing strongly and its overall credit business is profitable and cash flow positive. Its revenue now makes up 10.4% of its overall revenue.Execution has been on point in attaining profitability although that resulted in declining growth in FY22. Management believes growth can reaccelerate once it achieves profitability.Sea Limited has sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes.Investment ThesisSea Limited has come under much scrutiny in the past 2 years as the shift in focus from growth to profitability and macro headwinds have led to a massive growth decline across itsShopee and Garena units. While this is unfortunate, management has executed brilliantly so far to turn the company into an increasingly self-sufficient business in the near term.In this article, I attempt to dive deeper into itsQ3 2022 resultand provide an overall analysis of the earnings. Although I’d like to highlight that the management has explicitly stated that growth can reaccelerate after attaining profitability and that they have a sufficient cash reserve to pay off the convertible notes sitting on the balance sheet.GarenaSE 10-QSE 10-QGarena’s QAU and QPU continued to decline sequentially, as the management’s anticipation of its user base stabilizing did not materialize. The macro headwinds continue to be a headache, and it seems that there is more uncertainty lying ahead for Garena Free Fire. The key forward is to focus on launching new games, with games such asPrimitive EraandBlack Clover Mobilelaunching recently. While this indicates that management is working hard to reaccelerate Garena’s growth, it is important to recognize that the success of games is not guaranteed, and this is the bigger uncertainty for the business. As a result, this caused its adjusted EBITDA margin to further decline to 32.5% during the quarter.Additionally, management states that the expiry of the agreement with Riot Games will have no impact on Garena’s publishing business, and Garena is seeking other top-game developers for their publishing business.ShopeeSE 10-QSE 10-QShopee’s GMV grew 14% Y/Y and the number of orders grew 18% Y/Y, a continuous decline in the past couple of quarters. This is a result of management pulling back on its sales and marketing (“S&M”) expenses, exiting multiple markets, cutting costs aggressively (such as hiring), and lastly, the lower consumer discretionary spending. This is in contrast to Lazada (NYSE: BABA), as the number oforders declined Y/Yand they are also prioritizing profitability through increased monetization.While this does show that consumers continue to spend on Shopee in SEA, its GMV and number of orders are partially contributed by Shopee Brazil. In a tough macro environment, Shopee experienced a 36% Y/Y growth in the number of brands on the platform, indicating that Shopee is an increasingly important partner in growing its online revenue.SE 10-QThe more important portion is Shopee’s improvement in profitability. Its overall adjusted EBITDA loss per order continues to improve by 23.5% sequentially, and more specifically, Shopee Brazil’s loss per order improved by 27.5% sequentially during the quarter as compared to 6.6% in the last quarter. Moreover, Shopee is expected to attain profitability by FY23 instead of FY25 as previously guided by the management. This goes to show that the management has made great strides in pursuing profitability, which is impressive in my view. Once it attained self-sufficiency, growth can reaccelerate, although, the management is expecting flat or negative growth in certain metrics in the near term.SeaBankNote that I will be using “SeaBank” and “SeaMoney” interchangeably.SE 10-QSeaMoney’s loan receivables grew 46% from 4Q21 and 110% from 3Q21 to $2.2 billion. These are loans provided to customers whereby SeaMoney generates revenue by charging interest rates, and it has been growing quickly. In myprevious article, I showed that in Sep 2022, SeaBank Indonesia grew its loans and customer deposits by 111% Y/Y and 147% Y/Y, respectively, and the launch of ShopeePay in Brazil. During the earnings call, management stated that the credit business is profitable and cash flow positive, and it will be focusing on growing this business in Southeast Asia (“SEA”) and Brazil.Additionally, they have also said to diversify their source of funding for the credit business, which I believe is to seek third-party financing partners to reduce the capital required for the business and at the same time, reduce credit risk. Similar to Bank Jago (IDX: ARTO), SeaBank may utilize the data of its partners to help improve the non-performing loans and scale its lending. Readers who are unaware of SeaBank’s business model can head to mydeep diveinto the company.SE 10-QSE 10-QSE 10-QAs a result of its growing deposits and loan books, its Q3 2022 revenue grew 147% Y/Y, and it has been increasingly making up a bigger portion of its overall revenue at 10.4% this quarter. Management had also been deliberate in cutting down on S&M expenses and combined with its acceleration revenue growth, its adjusted EBITDA margin has improved massively to -20.7% during the quarter. This is compared to -40% in 2Q22 and -120.3% a year ago.Sufficient Cash Reserves To Pay off Convertible NotesSE 10-QOne of the biggest concerns about Sea Limited for investors is the cash burn rate, as they fear that the company does not have enough sufficient cash reserves to pay off convertible notes maturing in 2026. However, not only did the cash outflow slow in Q3 2022, but the management has also hinted that there are sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes:“We aim to continue to maintain a net cash position, after budgeting for the full retirement in cash of outstanding convertible bonds and assuming no external funding.”ConclusionOverall, this was a pretty decent quarter for Sea Limited, as we could see that they had made huge improvements on the road to profitability, particularly for Shopee. While that comes at a growth trade-off, management has indicated that Shopee can reaccelerate its growth after attaining profitability in FY23, which is pulled forward from FY25 as guided previously.Garena's results continue to be a concern as macro seems to have a longer-than-expected impact on its user base and its profitability as a result has been trending downwards over the past couple of quarters. Management has been working hard on its gaming pipelines, although the uncertainty lies in the successes of these new games and whether they could reaccelerate their growth in the future.SeaBank has been growing its top line really quickly and huge improvements were made on the bottom line as well. Furthermore, the overall credit business is profitable and is generating positive cash flow, and has been increasingly making up a larger proportion of its total revenue. I continue to believe that this can be a potential growth driver for Sea Limited.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}