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2024-01-12

Just realized you can change to another town

2022-02-02

Good

Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks have three consecutive positive days! U.S. oil hits 7-year high

2023-12-29

Play this game to celebrate the new year

2023-12-25

Today you should try the game if not yet

2025-02-21

Is it not so easy to have +\- 10% price change after release?

Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?

2024-01-17

$GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT$

2024-01-13

Playing the game before closing

2024-01-11

Happy trading this week

2024-01-10

Play the game before deadline

2024-01-09

Happy playing this game and earning more coins

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it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","listText":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","text":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/405983184327336","repostId":"1143671283","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143671283","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1739943924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143671283?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-02-19 13:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143671283","media":"期权女巫","summary":"阿里巴巴将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The third quarter results of fiscal year 2025 will be announced on February 20. This financial report is regarded by Morgan Stanley as \"the first catalyst to examine China's AI investment trend.\" Currently, the market's optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to heat up. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that this round of AI-driven rise in Chinese technology stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba is regarded as \"more favorable in terms of thematic investment in China's generative AI development at this stage due to its layout in the AI field. stock\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raise expectations, and valuation recovery can be expected</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A number of institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices on Ali. Jefferies believes that the valuation of China's Internet is low, which is at a discount to overseas peers. The target price of Alibaba's US stocks and Hong Kong stocks has risen from US $150 and HK $145 to US $156 and HK $151 respectively. UBS predicted in its financial report forecast that Ali's third-quarter revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 274.557 billion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations, but emphasized that if the macro economy stabilizes and competition slows down, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, and the target price of US $140 (corresponding to Hong Kong stocks 136 Hong Kong dollars) implies a PE of 18 times in fiscal year 2026.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Option Market: A Game under High Volatility Expectations</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock price was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, which is significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting the market's bet on the violent fluctuation of stock prices after the financial report. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, $120 Call and $105 Put have the largest open interest, becoming the core points of the long-short game.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In response to the Ali financial report incident, you can refer to the following option strategies:</p><p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Sell Put (Cash-Secured Put), or you can steadily gain premium</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Construction method</strong>: Sell a Put option that expires on March 21 and has an exercise price of US $110, and receive about US $1.5 per share from premium (premium revenue of US $150 per contract).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p><p></li><li><strong>Critical parameters</strong></p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>earning</strong>: If the stock price is always higher than $110, premium becomes net income, and the annualized income from selling can reach about 13.66%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Risk</strong>: If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at a price of $110, reserve a margin of about $11,000/contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110-1.5).</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applicable scenarios</strong>: Applicable to being optimistic about the long-term value of Alibaba. At the same time, by March 21, Alibaba's U.S. stock price will not fall below $110.</p><p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet that the stock price will fluctuate by more than ± 10% after the financial report</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current Stock Price and Volatility Target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Latest Stock Price</strong>: US $126.9 (2025-02-19)</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility Target</strong>：±10% →<strong>Upside Target $139.59</strong>，<strong>Downside Target $114.21</strong></p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy choice: Long Strangle combination</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Logic</strong>: By buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put) at the same time, bet on the stock price to break through in either direction, which is suitable for scenarios with high volatility expectations and unclear direction.</p><p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Bundle 250228 120P/133C $</a></p><p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Contract direction</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exercise price (USD)</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Expiry date</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Latest Price (USD)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Call Option</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Put Option (Put)</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Total strategy cost</strong>：4.05 + 2.75 =<strong>$6.8/share</strong><br/><strong>Break-even point</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Upstream</strong>：133.0 + 6.8 =<strong>$139.8</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>downward</strong>：120.0-6.8 =<strong>$113.2</strong></p><p></li></ul></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Analysis of key parameters</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility sensitivity</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If the volatility falls after the financial report, the time value of the option may decay rapidly, so we need to pay attention to the impact of IV changes on the strategy.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta and Probability</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The call option Delta = 0.381, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring above $133 is about 38.1%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Delta of the put option =-0.289, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring below $120 is about 28.9%.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The trading volume of US $133 Call is low (194 lots), so we need to be wary of the widening bid-ask spread caused by insufficient liquidity.</p><p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If the stock price quickly breaks through a certain direction after the financial report, the position can be closed immediately to lock in profits.</p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Maximum loss</strong>: Limited to premium ($6.8/share).</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility risk</strong>: A drop in IV may cause the strategy to lose money if it fails to meet expectations.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>: Low volume contracts may be difficult to close positions in time.</p><p></li></ul></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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This financial report is regarded by Morgan Stanley as \"the first catalyst to examine China's AI investment trend.\" Currently, the market's optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to heat up. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that this round of AI-driven rise in Chinese technology stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba is regarded as \"more favorable in terms of thematic investment in China's generative AI development at this stage due to its layout in the AI field. stock\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raise expectations, and valuation recovery can be expected</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A number of institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices on Ali. Jefferies believes that the valuation of China's Internet is low, which is at a discount to overseas peers. The target price of Alibaba's US stocks and Hong Kong stocks has risen from US $150 and HK $145 to US $156 and HK $151 respectively. UBS predicted in its financial report forecast that Ali's third-quarter revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 274.557 billion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations, but emphasized that if the macro economy stabilizes and competition slows down, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, and the target price of US $140 (corresponding to Hong Kong stocks 136 Hong Kong dollars) implies a PE of 18 times in fiscal year 2026.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Option Market: A Game under High Volatility Expectations</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock price was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, which is significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting the market's bet on the violent fluctuation of stock prices after the financial report. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, $120 Call and $105 Put have the largest open interest, becoming the core points of the long-short game.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In response to the Ali financial report incident, you can refer to the following option strategies:</p><p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Sell Put (Cash-Secured Put), or you can steadily gain premium</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Construction method</strong>: Sell a Put option that expires on March 21 and has an exercise price of US $110, and receive about US $1.5 per share from premium (premium revenue of US $150 per contract).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p><p></li><li><strong>Critical parameters</strong></p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>earning</strong>: If the stock price is always higher than $110, premium becomes net income, and the annualized income from selling can reach about 13.66%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Risk</strong>: If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at a price of $110, reserve a margin of about $11,000/contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110-1.5).</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applicable scenarios</strong>: Applicable to being optimistic about the long-term value of Alibaba. At the same time, by March 21, Alibaba's U.S. stock price will not fall below $110.</p><p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet that the stock price will fluctuate by more than ± 10% after the financial report</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current Stock Price and Volatility Target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Latest Stock Price</strong>: US $126.9 (2025-02-19)</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility Target</strong>：±10% →<strong>Upside Target $139.59</strong>，<strong>Downside Target $114.21</strong></p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy choice: Long Strangle combination</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Logic</strong>: By buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put) at the same time, bet on the stock price to break through in either direction, which is suitable for scenarios with high volatility expectations and unclear direction.</p><p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Bundle 250228 120P/133C $</a></p><p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Contract direction</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exercise price (USD)</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Expiry date</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Latest Price (USD)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Call Option</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Put Option (Put)</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Total strategy cost</strong>：4.05 + 2.75 =<strong>$6.8/share</strong><br/><strong>Break-even point</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Upstream</strong>：133.0 + 6.8 =<strong>$139.8</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>downward</strong>：120.0-6.8 =<strong>$113.2</strong></p><p></li></ul></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Analysis of key parameters</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility sensitivity</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If the volatility falls after the financial report, the time value of the option may decay rapidly, so we need to pay attention to the impact of IV changes on the strategy.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta and Probability</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The call option Delta = 0.381, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring above $133 is about 38.1%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Delta of the put option =-0.289, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring below $120 is about 28.9%.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The trading volume of US $133 Call is low (194 lots), so we need to be wary of the widening bid-ask spread caused by insufficient liquidity.</p><p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If the stock price quickly breaks through a certain direction after the financial report, the position can be closed immediately to lock in profits.</p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Maximum loss</strong>: Limited to premium ($6.8/share).</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility risk</strong>: A drop in IV may cause the strategy to lose money if it fails to meet expectations.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>: Low volume contracts may be difficult to close positions in time.</p><p></li></ul></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143671283","content_text":"阿里巴巴 将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。当前，市场对中国生成式AI发展的乐观情绪持续升温。摩根大通指出，中国科技股此轮由AI驱动的上涨更具可持续性，而阿里巴巴因其在AI领域的布局，被视为“现阶段在中国生成式AI发展的主题投资方面更为有利的股票”。投行集体调高预期，估值修复可期多家机构近期上调对阿里的评级与目标价。杰富瑞认为中国互联网的估值偏低，较海外同业有折让，对阿里巴巴美股和港股目标价分别由150美元和145港元，升至156美元和151港元。瑞银则在财报前瞻中预测，阿里第三财季营收同比增长5.5%至2745.57亿元，略低于市场预期，但强调若宏观经济企稳、竞争趋缓，其估值倍数有望上修。该行给予阿里巴巴“买入”评级，美股目标价140美元（对应港股136港元）隐含2026财年PE 18倍。股价与期权市场：高波动预期下的博弈截至周二，阿里巴巴美股报126.9美元，52周高点为129.50美元，支撑位位于120美元。当前股票隐含波动率（IV）高达57.67%，显著高于历史均值，反映市场对财报后股价剧烈波动的押注。流动性数据显示，3月21日到期期权中，120美元Call和105美元Put未平仓量最大，成为多空博弈的核心点位。期权策略：如何押注财报行情？针对阿里财报事件，以下期权策略可参考：策略一：卖Put（Cash-Secured Put），或可稳健收获权利金构建方式：卖出1张3月21日到期、行权价为110美元的Put期权，收取权利金约1.5美元/股（每张合约权利金收益150美元）。‌关键参数收益：若股价始终高于110美元，权利金成为纯收入，卖出年化收益可达约13.66%。风险：若股价跌破110美元，需按110美元价格买入股票，预留保证金约11,000美元/合约，盈亏平衡点为108.5美元（110 - 1.5）。适用场景：适用于看好阿里巴巴长期价值，同时到3月21日，阿里巴巴美股股价不会跌破110美元。策略二：押注财报后股价有大于±10%的波动当前股价与波动目标最新股价：126.9美元（2025-02-19）波动目标：±10% → 上行目标139.59美元，下行目标114.21美元策略选择：宽跨式组合（Long Strangle）逻辑：通过同时买入虚值看涨期权（Call）和虚值看跌期权（Put），押注股价突破任一方向，适用于高波动预期且方向不明确的场景。具体合约选择与成本分析 ‌‌$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  ‌合约方向行权价（美元）到期日最新价格（美元）看涨期权（Call）133.02025-02-284.05看跌期权（Put）120.02025-02-282.75策略总成本：4.05 + 2.75 = 6.8美元/股盈亏平衡点：上行：133.0 + 6.8 = 139.8美元下行：120.0 - 6.8 = 113.2美元关键参数解析波动率敏感性：当前隐含波动率（IV）为57.67%，处于较高水平。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。Delta与概率：看涨期权Delta=0.381，隐含股价到期在133美元以上的概率约38.1%。看跌期权Delta=-0.289，隐含股价到期在120美元以下的概率约28.9%。流动性风险：133美元Call交易量较低（194手），需警惕流动性不足导致的买卖价差扩大。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。风险提示最大亏损：限于权利金（6.8美元/股）。波动率风险：IV回落可能导致策略未达预期即亏损。流动性风险：低交易量合约可能难以及时平仓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":263835595382840,"gmtCreate":1705448758381,"gmtModify":1705448761321,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT\">$GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"May I know I can rsp money fund? Thanks&nbsp;","text":"May I know I can rsp money fund? Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259816242200712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":934,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259700006940688,"gmtCreate":1704413834688,"gmtModify":1704413838640,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Play the game and enjoy your weekend&nbsp;","listText":"Play the game and enjoy your weekend&nbsp;","text":"Play the game and enjoy your 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enjoy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/258900295835704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258524689989800,"gmtCreate":1704150414327,"gmtModify":1704150418412,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's your trading plan in new year&nbsp;","listText":"What's your trading plan in new year&nbsp;","text":"What's your trading plan in new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/258524689989800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258213712003088,"gmtCreate":1704074471681,"gmtModify":1704074475381,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy new year to all&nbsp;","listText":"Happy new year to all&nbsp;","text":"Happy new year to all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/258213712003088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257850604163272,"gmtCreate":1703985802314,"gmtModify":1703985806680,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Plan the game to celebrate the new year&nbsp;","listText":"Plan the game to celebrate the new year&nbsp;","text":"Plan the game to celebrate the new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257850604163272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257501875372088,"gmtCreate":1703900702700,"gmtModify":1703900711279,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wish your happy new year and a prosperous trading in 2024","listText":"Wish your happy new year and a prosperous trading in 2024","text":"Wish your happy new year and a prosperous trading in 2024","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257501875372088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257121130127536,"gmtCreate":1703807750763,"gmtModify":1703807754707,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Play this game to celebrate the new year&nbsp;","listText":"Play this game to celebrate the new year&nbsp;","text":"Play this game to celebrate the new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257121130127536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256780760674320,"gmtCreate":1703724630048,"gmtModify":1703724635145,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good game to play in the holidays&nbsp;","listText":"Good game to play in the holidays&nbsp;","text":"Good game to play in the holidays","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256780760674320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":262108430373072,"gmtCreate":1705026089903,"gmtModify":1705026094114,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just realized you can change to another town&nbsp;","listText":"Just realized you can change to another town&nbsp;","text":"Just realized you can change to another town","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262108430373072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091303078,"gmtCreate":1643769323510,"gmtModify":1676533854070,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091303078","repostId":"1187576728","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187576728","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643759354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187576728?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-02 07:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks have three consecutive positive days! U.S. oil hits 7-year high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187576728","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：道指收涨0.78%，三大指数均录三连阳；②美国WTI原油收高1美分，创2014年10月来最高收盘价；③谷歌Q4财报全面超预期，宣布20比1拆股后飙升超8%。海外市场1、美股收盘：走出糟糕1月 三","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: The Dow closed up 0.78%, and all three major indexes recorded three consecutive positives; ② U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 1 cent, the highest closing price since October 2014; ③<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The Q4 financial report exceeded expectations in an all-round way, and soared by more than 8% after announcing a 20-to-1 stock split. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed: Out of the bad situation, the three major indexes continued to rebound in January and recorded three consecutive positive days</p><p>All three major indexes of U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day, regaining their footing after a wild January. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.78% to 35,405.24 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.69% to 4,546.54 points; The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.75% to 14,346.00 points.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>New energy vehicle stocks rose more than 11%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with iQiyi rising more than 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Interesting headlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPOP\">Pupu culture</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>Up more than 10%, among new energy vehicle stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose more than 1%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed higher across the board on Tuesday, and the French CAC40 index rose 1.43%</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.94%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.95%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 1.29%, Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 1.48%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 1.19%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed 1 cent higher on Tuesday, the highest closing price since October 2014</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for March delivery edged up 1 cent, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $88.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement price for a front-month contract since Oct. 7, 2014.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed up 0.3% on Tuesday and stood above $1,800</p><p>Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $5.10, or 0.3%, to close at $1,801.50 an ounce, the highest closing price for the most active contract since January 26. The futures rose 0.6% on Monday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Putin: The responses of the United States and NATO to Russia's security proposals ignore Russia's principled concerns</p><p>According to Russian media reports, Putin said at a press conference held after meeting with visiting Hungarian Prime Minister Orban in Moscow that day that Russia is carefully analyzing the written replies of the United States and NATO to Russia's security proposals. \"What is now clear is that Russia's principled concerns have been ignored.\"</p><p>2. The White House warned in advance: January's non-farm payrolls data may be quite \"ugly\" and it's all Omicron's fault</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for January this year will be released this Friday. The Biden administration has already released rumors in advance in an attempt to lower the expectations of the outside world for this blockbuster payrolls report.</p><p>3. Job vacancies in the United States unexpectedly increased in December! Record 4.6 million vacancies higher than unemployed</p><p>The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Tuesday showed that there were 10.925 million JOLTS job vacancies in the United States in December, which was higher than market expectations of 10.3 million and slightly lower than the historical high of 11.1 million in July. The November data was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million.</p><p>4. The U.S. manufacturing index fell for the third consecutive month to its lowest level in 14 months</p><p>Data released Tuesday showed that the Institute for Supply Management's (IMS) factory activity index fell to 57.6, the third consecutive month of decline, and is now its lowest level since November 2020, after 58.8 the previous month. Above 50, though, suggests manufacturing is still expanding.</p><p>5. WHO: Many countries have not yet experienced the peak of the epidemic caused by Omicron strain</p><p>WHO held a regular press conference on the epidemic situation in novel coronavirus pneumonia. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical director of WHO's health emergency program, said that many countries have not yet experienced the peak of the epidemic caused by the Omicron strain. The vaccination rate in many countries is very low, and it is not appropriate to immediately lift all epidemic prevention restrictions.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1143429155\" target=\"_blank\">Google's Q4 financial report exceeded expectations across the board, soaring more than 8% after announcing a 20-to-1 stock split</a></p><p>In the fourth quarter of last year, Google's parent company's revenue surged by 32%, EPS increased by nearly 38%, operating profit increased by nearly 40%, cloud revenue increased by nearly 45%, and operating losses narrowed by 30% year-on-year, all exceeding expectations, but YouTube advertising revenue was slightly inferior, innovative business revenue shrank and operating losses expanded by nearly 30%. The company plans to split its shares 20: 1 in a one-time special Dividend in mid-July, which rose by more than 7% after hours, and the stock price pushed $3,000 close to a new high.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208355349\" target=\"_blank\">Autopilot system is defective, NHTSA asks Tesla to recall 54,000 vehicles in the United States</a></p><p>Tesla Inc. is recalling 53,822 vehicles located in the U.S. region at the request of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The recall includes some 2016-2022 Model S and Model X, 2017-2022 Model 3, and 2020-2022 Model Y, the NHTSA said.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208567353\" target=\"_blank\">Ford rumored to plan to increase investment in electric vehicle business by up to $20 billion and restructure</a></p><p>According to media reports on Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Plans to accelerate the deployment of its electric vehicles, which was previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>And reforms led by Tesla executive Doug Field call for Ford to spend an additional $10 billion to $20 billion over the next 5-10 years and shift global factories from producing gasoline-powered vehicles to electric vehicle production.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208985359\" target=\"_blank\">AMD's fourth-quarter revenue of $4.8 billion, net profit fell 45% year-on-year</a></p><p>AMD's revenue in the fourth quarter was US $4.826 billion, an increase of 49% compared with US $3.244 billion in the same period last year, and an increase of 12% compared with US $4.313 billion in the previous quarter; Net profit was US $974 million, a decrease of 45% compared with US $1.781 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208359914\" target=\"_blank\">PayPal's fourth-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion, net income fell 49% year-on-year</a></p><p>Payment service provider PayPal today announced the company's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2021. PayPal's net revenue in the fourth quarter was US $6.918 billion, an increase of 13% compared with US $6.116 billion in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it also increased by 13% year-on-year; Net profit was US $801 million, a decrease of 49% compared with US $1.567 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208351273\" target=\"_blank\">ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue rose more than 82% year-on-year, driven by the overall surge in energy prices</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Giant ExxonMobil announced its fourth-quarter 2021 financial report on Tuesday. Thanks to strong energy prices, its revenue soared to US $84.965 billion, compared with US $46.54 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 82.6%; Net profit was US $8.87 billion, the largest in seven years, compared with a net loss of US $20.07 billion in the same period last year. The company's shares rose more than 5% intraday, nearing an eight-year high.</p><p>Market View</p><p>1. Bridgewater: People underestimate the strength of the Fed's tightening and the market faces significant risks</p><p>On Tuesday, Bridgewater Associates, the world's number one hedge fund, said in its 2022 economic outlook that investors may have underestimated the need for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to \"aggressively\" tighten monetary policy to fight inflation, which will bring \"significant risk\" to the market.</p><p>2. Fed Harker: Four rate hike this year may be appropriate, and more aggressive actions may be taken if inflation soars</p><p>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday that the Fed could rate hike four times this year and take more aggressive action if factors such as supply chain problems that are causing higher inflation are not eased.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks have three consecutive positive days! U.S. oil hits 7-year high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: U.S. stocks have three consecutive positive days! U.S. oil hits 7-year high\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-02 07:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: The Dow closed up 0.78%, and all three major indexes recorded three consecutive positives; ② U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 1 cent, the highest closing price since October 2014; ③<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The Q4 financial report exceeded expectations in an all-round way, and soared by more than 8% after announcing a 20-to-1 stock split. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed: Out of the bad situation, the three major indexes continued to rebound in January and recorded three consecutive positive days</p><p>All three major indexes of U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day, regaining their footing after a wild January. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.78% to 35,405.24 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.69% to 4,546.54 points; The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.75% to 14,346.00 points.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>New energy vehicle stocks rose more than 11%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with iQiyi rising more than 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Interesting headlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPOP\">Pupu culture</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>Up more than 10%, among new energy vehicle stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose more than 1%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed higher across the board on Tuesday, and the French CAC40 index rose 1.43%</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.94%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.95%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 1.29%, Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 1.48%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 1.19%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed 1 cent higher on Tuesday, the highest closing price since October 2014</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for March delivery edged up 1 cent, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $88.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement price for a front-month contract since Oct. 7, 2014.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed up 0.3% on Tuesday and stood above $1,800</p><p>Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $5.10, or 0.3%, to close at $1,801.50 an ounce, the highest closing price for the most active contract since January 26. The futures rose 0.6% on Monday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Putin: The responses of the United States and NATO to Russia's security proposals ignore Russia's principled concerns</p><p>According to Russian media reports, Putin said at a press conference held after meeting with visiting Hungarian Prime Minister Orban in Moscow that day that Russia is carefully analyzing the written replies of the United States and NATO to Russia's security proposals. \"What is now clear is that Russia's principled concerns have been ignored.\"</p><p>2. The White House warned in advance: January's non-farm payrolls data may be quite \"ugly\" and it's all Omicron's fault</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for January this year will be released this Friday. The Biden administration has already released rumors in advance in an attempt to lower the expectations of the outside world for this blockbuster payrolls report.</p><p>3. Job vacancies in the United States unexpectedly increased in December! Record 4.6 million vacancies higher than unemployed</p><p>The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Tuesday showed that there were 10.925 million JOLTS job vacancies in the United States in December, which was higher than market expectations of 10.3 million and slightly lower than the historical high of 11.1 million in July. The November data was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million.</p><p>4. The U.S. manufacturing index fell for the third consecutive month to its lowest level in 14 months</p><p>Data released Tuesday showed that the Institute for Supply Management's (IMS) factory activity index fell to 57.6, the third consecutive month of decline, and is now its lowest level since November 2020, after 58.8 the previous month. Above 50, though, suggests manufacturing is still expanding.</p><p>5. WHO: Many countries have not yet experienced the peak of the epidemic caused by Omicron strain</p><p>WHO held a regular press conference on the epidemic situation in novel coronavirus pneumonia. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical director of WHO's health emergency program, said that many countries have not yet experienced the peak of the epidemic caused by the Omicron strain. The vaccination rate in many countries is very low, and it is not appropriate to immediately lift all epidemic prevention restrictions.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1143429155\" target=\"_blank\">Google's Q4 financial report exceeded expectations across the board, soaring more than 8% after announcing a 20-to-1 stock split</a></p><p>In the fourth quarter of last year, Google's parent company's revenue surged by 32%, EPS increased by nearly 38%, operating profit increased by nearly 40%, cloud revenue increased by nearly 45%, and operating losses narrowed by 30% year-on-year, all exceeding expectations, but YouTube advertising revenue was slightly inferior, innovative business revenue shrank and operating losses expanded by nearly 30%. The company plans to split its shares 20: 1 in a one-time special Dividend in mid-July, which rose by more than 7% after hours, and the stock price pushed $3,000 close to a new high.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208355349\" target=\"_blank\">Autopilot system is defective, NHTSA asks Tesla to recall 54,000 vehicles in the United States</a></p><p>Tesla Inc. is recalling 53,822 vehicles located in the U.S. region at the request of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The recall includes some 2016-2022 Model S and Model X, 2017-2022 Model 3, and 2020-2022 Model Y, the NHTSA said.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208567353\" target=\"_blank\">Ford rumored to plan to increase investment in electric vehicle business by up to $20 billion and restructure</a></p><p>According to media reports on Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Plans to accelerate the deployment of its electric vehicles, which was previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>And reforms led by Tesla executive Doug Field call for Ford to spend an additional $10 billion to $20 billion over the next 5-10 years and shift global factories from producing gasoline-powered vehicles to electric vehicle production.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208985359\" target=\"_blank\">AMD's fourth-quarter revenue of $4.8 billion, net profit fell 45% year-on-year</a></p><p>AMD's revenue in the fourth quarter was US $4.826 billion, an increase of 49% compared with US $3.244 billion in the same period last year, and an increase of 12% compared with US $4.313 billion in the previous quarter; Net profit was US $974 million, a decrease of 45% compared with US $1.781 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208359914\" target=\"_blank\">PayPal's fourth-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion, net income fell 49% year-on-year</a></p><p>Payment service provider PayPal today announced the company's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2021. PayPal's net revenue in the fourth quarter was US $6.918 billion, an increase of 13% compared with US $6.116 billion in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it also increased by 13% year-on-year; Net profit was US $801 million, a decrease of 49% compared with US $1.567 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2208351273\" target=\"_blank\">ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue rose more than 82% year-on-year, driven by the overall surge in energy prices</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Giant ExxonMobil announced its fourth-quarter 2021 financial report on Tuesday. Thanks to strong energy prices, its revenue soared to US $84.965 billion, compared with US $46.54 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 82.6%; Net profit was US $8.87 billion, the largest in seven years, compared with a net loss of US $20.07 billion in the same period last year. The company's shares rose more than 5% intraday, nearing an eight-year high.</p><p>Market View</p><p>1. Bridgewater: People underestimate the strength of the Fed's tightening and the market faces significant risks</p><p>On Tuesday, Bridgewater Associates, the world's number one hedge fund, said in its 2022 economic outlook that investors may have underestimated the need for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to \"aggressively\" tighten monetary policy to fight inflation, which will bring \"significant risk\" to the market.</p><p>2. Fed Harker: Four rate hike this year may be appropriate, and more aggressive actions may be taken if inflation soars</p><p>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday that the Fed could rate hike four times this year and take more aggressive action if factors such as supply chain problems that are causing higher inflation are not eased.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187576728","content_text":"摘要：道指收涨0.78%，三大指数均录三连阳；②美国WTI原油收高1美分，创2014年10月来最高收盘价；③谷歌Q4财报全面超预期，宣布20比1拆股后飙升超8%。海外市场1、美股收盘：走出糟糕1月 三大指数持续反弹录得三连阳美国股市三大指数均连续第三天上涨，在经历了疯狂的一月之后重新站稳脚跟。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.78%，报35,405.24点；标普500指数涨0.69%，报4,546.54点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.75%，报14,346.00点。2、热门中概股大多走高 爱奇艺涨超11% 新能源汽车股普涨热门中概股周二收盘大多走高，爱奇艺涨超11%，趣头条、普普文化、云米科技涨超10%，新能源汽车股中，理想汽车涨超4%，小鹏汽车涨超3%，蔚来汽车涨超1%。3、欧股周二全线收涨 法国CAC40指数涨1.43%德国DAX30指数涨0.94%，法国CAC40指数涨1.43%，英国富时100指数涨0.95%，西班牙IBEX35指数涨1.29%，意大利富时MIB指数涨1.48%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.19%。4、周二美国WTI原油收高1美分 创2014年10月来最高收盘价纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格小幅上涨1美分，涨幅不到0.1%，收于每桶88.20美元，创2014年10月7日以来近月合约的最高结算价。5、黄金期货周二收高0.3% 站上1800美元纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格上涨5.10美元，涨幅为0.3%，收于每盎司1801.50美元，创1月26日以来最活跃合约的最高收盘价。周一该期货上涨0.6%。国际宏观1、普京：美国和北约对俄安全保障建议的回复无视俄方原则性关切据俄罗斯媒体报道，普京当天在莫斯科会见到访的匈牙利总理欧尔班后举行的记者会上表示，俄方正认真分析美国和北约对俄安全保障建议的书面答复。“现在已经明确的是，俄方的原则性关切被无视了。”2、白宫提前警告：1月非农就业数据可能相当“难看” 都怪奥密克戎本周五将公布今年1月美国非农就业报告，拜登政府已经提前放出风声，试图降低外界对这份重磅就业报告的期望值。3、美国12月职位空缺意外增加！空缺数较失业人数高460万创纪录美国劳工部周二发布的职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)显示，美国12月JOLTS职位空缺1092.5万人，该数据高于市场预期的1030万人，略低于7月1110万的历史高点。11月数据由1056.2万上修为1077.5万。4、美国制造业指数连续第三个月下滑 降至14个月来最低水平周二公布的数据显示，供应管理协会(IMS)的工厂活动指数跌至57.6，为连续第三个月下降，目前为2020年11月以来的最低水平，前月为58.8。不过，高于50表明制造业仍在扩张。5、世卫组织：许多国家尚未经历奥密克戎毒株导致的疫情高峰世卫组织举行新冠肺炎疫情例行发布会。世卫组织卫生紧急项目技术主管玛丽亚·范·科霍夫表示，许多国家尚未经历奥密克戎毒株导致的疫情高峰。许多国家的疫苗接种率很低，现在不宜立刻取消所有防疫限制措施。公司新闻1、谷歌Q4财报全面超预期，宣布20比1拆股后飙升超8%去年四季度谷歌母公司营收大涨32%，EPS增近38%，运营利润增近40%，云收入增近45%且运营亏损同比收窄三成，均超预期，但YouTube广告收入略逊、创新业务收入缩小且运营亏损扩大近三成。公司打算在7月中旬以一次性特别股息方式20比1拆股，盘后涨超7%，股价上逼3000美元接近新高。2、自动驾驶系统存在缺陷 NHTSA要求特斯拉召回5.4万辆在美汽车特斯拉公司应美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)要求，召回53,822辆位于美国地区的汽车。NHTSA表示，此次召回范围包括部分2016-2022年的Model S和Model X、2017-2022年的Model 3以及2020-2022年的Model Y。3、传福特计划将电动汽车业务投资增加至多200亿美元并进行重组据媒体周二报道，福特汽车计划加速其电动汽车的部署，这项由前苹果和特斯拉高管Doug Field领导的改革呼吁福特在未来5-10年内额外花费100亿到200亿美元，并将全球工厂从生产汽油动力汽车转变为电动汽车生产。4、AMD第四季度营收48亿美元 净利润同比下降45%AMD第四季度营收为48.26亿美元，与上年同期的32.44亿美元相比增长49%，与上一季度的43.13亿美元相比增长12%；净利润为9.74亿美元，与上年同期的17.81亿美元相比下降45%。5、PayPal第四季度营收69亿美元 净利润同比下降49%支付服务提供商PayPal今天公布了该公司的2021财年第四季度及全年财报。PayPal第四季度净营收为69.18亿美元，与上年同期的61.16亿美元相比增长13%，不计入汇率变动的影响同样为同比增长13%；净利润为8.01亿美元，与上年同期的15.67亿美元相比下降49%。6、能源价格全面飙升推动下 埃克森美孚Q4营收同比大涨逾82%美国能源巨头埃克森美孚周二公布了其2021年第四季度财报，得益于强劲的能源价格，其营收飙升至849.65亿美元，上年同期为465.4亿美元，同比增长82.6%；净利润为88.7亿美元，为七年来最大，上年同期净亏损200.7亿美元。该公司股价盘中大涨逾5%，接近八年高点。市场观点1、桥水：人们低估了美联储紧缩力度 市场面临重大风险周二，全球头号对冲基金桥水Bridgewater Associates在其2022年经济展望中表示，投资者可能低估了美联储和其他央行\"积极\"收紧货币政策以对抗通胀的必要性，这将给市场带来\"重大风险\"。2、美联储哈克：今年加息四次可能是合适的 若通胀飙升或采取更积极行动费城联储主席帕特里克-哈克(Patrick Harker)周二表示，如果供应链问题等导致通胀上升的因素没有得到缓解，美联储今年可能会加息四次，并采取更积极的行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0,".SPX":0,".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257121130127536,"gmtCreate":1703807750763,"gmtModify":1703807754707,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Play this game to celebrate the new year&nbsp;","listText":"Play this game to celebrate the new year&nbsp;","text":"Play this game to celebrate the new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257121130127536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255788622610688,"gmtCreate":1703462089766,"gmtModify":1703462093719,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Today you should try the game if not yet&nbsp;","listText":"Today you should try the game if not yet&nbsp;","text":"Today you should try the game if not yet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255788622610688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":405983184327336,"gmtCreate":1740144877115,"gmtModify":1740144881150,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","listText":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","text":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/405983184327336","repostId":"1143671283","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143671283","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1739943924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143671283?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-02-19 13:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143671283","media":"期权女巫","summary":"阿里巴巴将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The third quarter results of fiscal year 2025 will be announced on February 20. This financial report is regarded by Morgan Stanley as \"the first catalyst to examine China's AI investment trend.\" Currently, the market's optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to heat up. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that this round of AI-driven rise in Chinese technology stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba is regarded as \"more favorable in terms of thematic investment in China's generative AI development at this stage due to its layout in the AI field. stock\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raise expectations, and valuation recovery can be expected</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A number of institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices on Ali. Jefferies believes that the valuation of China's Internet is low, which is at a discount to overseas peers. The target price of Alibaba's US stocks and Hong Kong stocks has risen from US $150 and HK $145 to US $156 and HK $151 respectively. UBS predicted in its financial report forecast that Ali's third-quarter revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 274.557 billion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations, but emphasized that if the macro economy stabilizes and competition slows down, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, and the target price of US $140 (corresponding to Hong Kong stocks 136 Hong Kong dollars) implies a PE of 18 times in fiscal year 2026.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Option Market: A Game under High Volatility Expectations</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock price was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, which is significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting the market's bet on the violent fluctuation of stock prices after the financial report. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, $120 Call and $105 Put have the largest open interest, becoming the core points of the long-short game.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In response to the Ali financial report incident, you can refer to the following option strategies:</p><p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Sell Put (Cash-Secured Put), or you can steadily gain premium</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Construction method</strong>: Sell a Put option that expires on March 21 and has an exercise price of US $110, and receive about US $1.5 per share from premium (premium revenue of US $150 per contract).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p><p></li><li><strong>Critical parameters</strong></p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>earning</strong>: If the stock price is always higher than $110, premium becomes net income, and the annualized income from selling can reach about 13.66%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Risk</strong>: If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at a price of $110, reserve a margin of about $11,000/contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110-1.5).</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applicable scenarios</strong>: Applicable to being optimistic about the long-term value of Alibaba. At the same time, by March 21, Alibaba's U.S. stock price will not fall below $110.</p><p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet that the stock price will fluctuate by more than ± 10% after the financial report</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current Stock Price and Volatility Target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Latest Stock Price</strong>: US $126.9 (2025-02-19)</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility Target</strong>：±10% →<strong>Upside Target $139.59</strong>，<strong>Downside Target $114.21</strong></p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy choice: Long Strangle combination</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Logic</strong>: By buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put) at the same time, bet on the stock price to break through in either direction, which is suitable for scenarios with high volatility expectations and unclear direction.</p><p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Bundle 250228 120P/133C $</a></p><p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Contract direction</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exercise price (USD)</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Expiry date</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Latest Price (USD)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Call Option</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Put Option (Put)</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Total strategy cost</strong>：4.05 + 2.75 =<strong>$6.8/share</strong><br/><strong>Break-even point</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Upstream</strong>：133.0 + 6.8 =<strong>$139.8</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>downward</strong>：120.0-6.8 =<strong>$113.2</strong></p><p></li></ul></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Analysis of key parameters</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility sensitivity</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If the volatility falls after the financial report, the time value of the option may decay rapidly, so we need to pay attention to the impact of IV changes on the strategy.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta and Probability</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The call option Delta = 0.381, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring above $133 is about 38.1%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Delta of the put option =-0.289, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring below $120 is about 28.9%.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The trading volume of US $133 Call is low (194 lots), so we need to be wary of the widening bid-ask spread caused by insufficient liquidity.</p><p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If the stock price quickly breaks through a certain direction after the financial report, the position can be closed immediately to lock in profits.</p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Maximum loss</strong>: Limited to premium ($6.8/share).</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility risk</strong>: A drop in IV may cause the strategy to lose money if it fails to meet expectations.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>: Low volume contracts may be difficult to close positions in time.</p><p></li></ul></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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This financial report is regarded by Morgan Stanley as \"the first catalyst to examine China's AI investment trend.\" Currently, the market's optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to heat up. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that this round of AI-driven rise in Chinese technology stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba is regarded as \"more favorable in terms of thematic investment in China's generative AI development at this stage due to its layout in the AI field. stock\".</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raise expectations, and valuation recovery can be expected</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A number of institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices on Ali. Jefferies believes that the valuation of China's Internet is low, which is at a discount to overseas peers. The target price of Alibaba's US stocks and Hong Kong stocks has risen from US $150 and HK $145 to US $156 and HK $151 respectively. UBS predicted in its financial report forecast that Ali's third-quarter revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 274.557 billion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations, but emphasized that if the macro economy stabilizes and competition slows down, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, and the target price of US $140 (corresponding to Hong Kong stocks 136 Hong Kong dollars) implies a PE of 18 times in fiscal year 2026.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Option Market: A Game under High Volatility Expectations</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock price was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, which is significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting the market's bet on the violent fluctuation of stock prices after the financial report. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, $120 Call and $105 Put have the largest open interest, becoming the core points of the long-short game.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In response to the Ali financial report incident, you can refer to the following option strategies:</p><p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Sell Put (Cash-Secured Put), or you can steadily gain premium</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Construction method</strong>: Sell a Put option that expires on March 21 and has an exercise price of US $110, and receive about US $1.5 per share from premium (premium revenue of US $150 per contract).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p><p></li><li><strong>Critical parameters</strong></p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>earning</strong>: If the stock price is always higher than $110, premium becomes net income, and the annualized income from selling can reach about 13.66%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Risk</strong>: If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at a price of $110, reserve a margin of about $11,000/contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110-1.5).</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applicable scenarios</strong>: Applicable to being optimistic about the long-term value of Alibaba. At the same time, by March 21, Alibaba's U.S. stock price will not fall below $110.</p><p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet that the stock price will fluctuate by more than ± 10% after the financial report</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current Stock Price and Volatility Target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Latest Stock Price</strong>: US $126.9 (2025-02-19)</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility Target</strong>：±10% →<strong>Upside Target $139.59</strong>，<strong>Downside Target $114.21</strong></p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy choice: Long Strangle combination</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Logic</strong>: By buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put) at the same time, bet on the stock price to break through in either direction, which is suitable for scenarios with high volatility expectations and unclear direction.</p><p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Bundle 250228 120P/133C $</a></p><p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Contract direction</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exercise price (USD)</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Expiry date</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Latest Price (USD)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Call Option</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Put Option (Put)</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Total strategy cost</strong>：4.05 + 2.75 =<strong>$6.8/share</strong><br/><strong>Break-even point</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Upstream</strong>：133.0 + 6.8 =<strong>$139.8</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>downward</strong>：120.0-6.8 =<strong>$113.2</strong></p><p></li></ul></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Analysis of key parameters</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility sensitivity</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If the volatility falls after the financial report, the time value of the option may decay rapidly, so we need to pay attention to the impact of IV changes on the strategy.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta and Probability</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The call option Delta = 0.381, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring above $133 is about 38.1%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Delta of the put option =-0.289, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring below $120 is about 28.9%.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The trading volume of US $133 Call is low (194 lots), so we need to be wary of the widening bid-ask spread caused by insufficient liquidity.</p><p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If the stock price quickly breaks through a certain direction after the financial report, the position can be closed immediately to lock in profits.</p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Maximum loss</strong>: Limited to premium ($6.8/share).</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility risk</strong>: A drop in IV may cause the strategy to lose money if it fails to meet expectations.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>: Low volume contracts may be difficult to close positions in time.</p><p></li></ul></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143671283","content_text":"阿里巴巴 将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。当前，市场对中国生成式AI发展的乐观情绪持续升温。摩根大通指出，中国科技股此轮由AI驱动的上涨更具可持续性，而阿里巴巴因其在AI领域的布局，被视为“现阶段在中国生成式AI发展的主题投资方面更为有利的股票”。投行集体调高预期，估值修复可期多家机构近期上调对阿里的评级与目标价。杰富瑞认为中国互联网的估值偏低，较海外同业有折让，对阿里巴巴美股和港股目标价分别由150美元和145港元，升至156美元和151港元。瑞银则在财报前瞻中预测，阿里第三财季营收同比增长5.5%至2745.57亿元，略低于市场预期，但强调若宏观经济企稳、竞争趋缓，其估值倍数有望上修。该行给予阿里巴巴“买入”评级，美股目标价140美元（对应港股136港元）隐含2026财年PE 18倍。股价与期权市场：高波动预期下的博弈截至周二，阿里巴巴美股报126.9美元，52周高点为129.50美元，支撑位位于120美元。当前股票隐含波动率（IV）高达57.67%，显著高于历史均值，反映市场对财报后股价剧烈波动的押注。流动性数据显示，3月21日到期期权中，120美元Call和105美元Put未平仓量最大，成为多空博弈的核心点位。期权策略：如何押注财报行情？针对阿里财报事件，以下期权策略可参考：策略一：卖Put（Cash-Secured Put），或可稳健收获权利金构建方式：卖出1张3月21日到期、行权价为110美元的Put期权，收取权利金约1.5美元/股（每张合约权利金收益150美元）。‌关键参数收益：若股价始终高于110美元，权利金成为纯收入，卖出年化收益可达约13.66%。风险：若股价跌破110美元，需按110美元价格买入股票，预留保证金约11,000美元/合约，盈亏平衡点为108.5美元（110 - 1.5）。适用场景：适用于看好阿里巴巴长期价值，同时到3月21日，阿里巴巴美股股价不会跌破110美元。策略二：押注财报后股价有大于±10%的波动当前股价与波动目标最新股价：126.9美元（2025-02-19）波动目标：±10% → 上行目标139.59美元，下行目标114.21美元策略选择：宽跨式组合（Long Strangle）逻辑：通过同时买入虚值看涨期权（Call）和虚值看跌期权（Put），押注股价突破任一方向，适用于高波动预期且方向不明确的场景。具体合约选择与成本分析 ‌‌$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  ‌合约方向行权价（美元）到期日最新价格（美元）看涨期权（Call）133.02025-02-284.05看跌期权（Put）120.02025-02-282.75策略总成本：4.05 + 2.75 = 6.8美元/股盈亏平衡点：上行：133.0 + 6.8 = 139.8美元下行：120.0 - 6.8 = 113.2美元关键参数解析波动率敏感性：当前隐含波动率（IV）为57.67%，处于较高水平。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。Delta与概率：看涨期权Delta=0.381，隐含股价到期在133美元以上的概率约38.1%。看跌期权Delta=-0.289，隐含股价到期在120美元以下的概率约28.9%。流动性风险：133美元Call交易量较低（194手），需警惕流动性不足导致的买卖价差扩大。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。风险提示最大亏损：限于权利金（6.8美元/股）。波动率风险：IV回落可能导致策略未达预期即亏损。流动性风险：低交易量合约可能难以及时平仓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":263835595382840,"gmtCreate":1705448758381,"gmtModify":1705448761321,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574978909432524","authorIdStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT\">$GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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