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2021-04-13

Good read

AppLovin: Capitalizing On The Surging Growth Of Mobile Game Apps

2021-04-06

Buy the dip!!

AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge

2021-03-22

Very insightful article.

Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices

2021-03-18

Good read!

Palantir: Rally On

2021-03-17

Good buy

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2021-03-16

BUY THE DIPS!!!

GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday

2021-03-02

Stay green!!

S&P 500 Climbs 2% Amid Rally Led by Small Caps: Markets Wrap

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read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345628775","repostId":"1125635474","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125635474","pubTimestamp":1618295945,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125635474?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AppLovin: Capitalizing On The Surging Growth Of Mobile Game Apps","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125635474","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 mil","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>AppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares.</li><li>At the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion, and it would be valued at $30.4 billion.</li><li>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8.</li><li>The company has been a key beneficiary of the surging growth of popular game apps.</li><li>Despite strong sales growth, its operating margins worsened in 2020 due to higher operating expenses.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>AppLovin<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APP\">AppLovin Corporation</a>  is one of the key beneficiaries of the exploding demand for mobile apps, especially for mobile games. The company's sales growth has been surging in recent years as the company has benefited from both organic growth and has been aggressive in making numerous acquisitions in the past three years.</p><p>Most developers lack access to the marketing, monetization, and data analytics tools required to stand out among the more than 4.8 million mobile apps available on the Apple App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). The company's products and services help many app developers to scale up their business and create a successful app that can be sustained long term. This is where the company's capabilities in app development, marketing, and analytics really stand out.</p><p>There are more than 1.3 million mobile gaming apps on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.Mobile gamingaccounts for 39% of worldwide app downloads and for 72% of all app store consumer spend by value, according to Sensor Tower.</p><p>Although the company's operating margins declined in the past two years mainly due to higher operating expenses, we believe that the company's profit margins will turn around this year due to a combination of higher economies of scale and lower operating expenses as a percentage of revenues.</p><p><b>Comparable Companies Valuation Analysis</b></p><p>In the comparable companies valuation analysis, we used the following companies as comps to AppLovin:</p><ul><li>Unity Software (U)</li><li>Roblox Corp. (RBLX)</li><li>Activision Blizzard (ATVI)</li><li>Zynga (ZNGA)</li></ul><p>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% upside from the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO.</p><p>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively.</p><p>The comps' average sales growth in 2020 and 2021 are similar to the sales growth rates of AppLovin in this period. Among the comps, Roblox has the highest sales growth and Activision has the lowest sales growth in 2020 and 2021. Overall, we have assumed higher sales growth for AppLovin versus its peers in 2021 and 2022 and this is one of main reasons why we have applied a 10% higher valuation multiple than the comps.</p><p>However, Roblox is trading at 19.2x EV/S in 2021 and we have applied a 16x EV/S multiple for AppLovin (17% lower valuation multiple than Roblox). We believe the market will attach a slightly higher valuation multiple for Roblox than AppLovin, mainly due to the former company's higher sales growth and operating margins in 2021, and its brand is more recognized worldwide.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47032411f633c63c676152889baa874\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ea8b356b98201f398b48bd4d57e507a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2dfe8877740e842bb1e143c157e39c\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aec05aa4790c780a95e2527c62896e9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee98f1dd0f1c0becb865f331a283068\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96321e40b2bb290d968a20e0a3832de8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327d495d893132d12a74cc91d93df055\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Income Statement Forecast</b></p><p>AppLovin generated sales of $1,451.1 million and an operating loss of $62.1 million in 2020. The company's sales have nearly tripled from 2018 to 2020. The company's operating margins declined from 50.1% in 2018 to 19.5% in 2019 and -4.3% in 2020. The major reasons for the lower operating margins are due to higher cost of sales, sales &amp; marketing, R&amp;D, and other operating expenses as a percentage of sales.</p><p>We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%. We have also assumed the company's operating margin to turn positive to 3% in 2021 from -4.3% in 2020. We estimate its operating margins to improve further to 6.8% in 2022, 10.6% in 2023, and 17.8% in 2025. We estimate AppLovin to have sales of $5.1 billion and an operating profit of $0.9 billion in 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e58f808f42f4c3a1e238b587f637063\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1026d63d84ac8f26d8391d7e91317b9e\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9bf6e155cbc281373a8fac78fd3e08b\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Company Background</b></p><p>Thecompanyoriginally started its business helping customers to improve the smartphone customer experiences for all the users. In recent years, the company has become a much bigger player in the mobile gaming segment and it also helps developers to grow their users and improve the monetization of their apps.</p><p>According to IDC, the company's totalmarket opportunityis estimated to be $189 billion in 2020, growing to $283 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 10.6% in this period. This total market size of $184 billion was derived by adding the worldwide total in-app advertising revenue of $101 billion (including gaming and non-gaming in-app display, video, and other advertising, but excluding in-app search advertising) and worldwide direct game spending of $88 billion for 2020.</p><p>AppLovin has invested about $1 billion in 15 acquisitions and partnerships since 2018. It owns more than 200 free-to-play mobile games from 12 studios.AppLovinlaunched a gaming business unit called Lion Studios in July 2018. It also acquired a company called Max in September 2018. Max provides in-app bidding service, which is a type of advertising where mobile publishers can sell their ad inventory in an auction method). AppLovin also owns and operates gaming studios Machine Zone, Belka Games, PeopleFun and Firecraft Studios.</p><p>In February 2021, AppLovin signed an agreement to purchase Adjust for $1 billion (including $598 million in cash and $352 million in convertible securities, and an assumption of up to $40 million in debt). Adjust is a leading mobile app analytics&amp; marketing products company in Germany. Adjust provides tools to prevent mobile advertising fraud and better measure the user base. This acquisition is expected to close in 1H 2021.</p><p>In the IPO prospectus, the company mentioned that it plans to use $75 million of its Class A common shares for charitable purposes. If the company raises $1 billion in the IPO, this would represent nearly 7.5% of total amount. This is a bit unusual to have this large number of shares allocated for charitable purposes. We applaud this move by the CEO and its senior management. Adam Foroughi, the co-founder and CEO of AppLovin, previously co-founded two advertising technology companies, Lifestreet Media Inc. and Social Hour Inc.</p><p><b>AppLovin (Key Metrics)</b></p><p>The table provides the company's key metrics. There has been a strong increase in the monthly active payers which jumped from 0.3 million in 2018 to 1.0 million in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2020. However, the enterprise clients declined from 192 in 2018 to 172 in 2020. The company defines its enterprise clients as third-party business clients from which it has collected more than $125,000 of revenue in the trailing 12 months. Average revenue per monthly active payer increased from $11 in 2018 to $32 in 2019 and $41 in 2020.</p><p>The company's main businesses comprise of its platform and apps. Its platform business mainly includes AppLovin Core Technologies and AppLovin Software. Its apps consist of over 200 free-to-play mobile games in five genres, run by 12 studios including those owned by the company and also those it partners with. The five major game genres offering by the company include casual, hypercasual, match-three, midcore, and card/casino. No single game of the company contributed more than 16% of its total revenue in 2020.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0638b1ba5528bc65ee975156f3bcfd46\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company data</span></p><p>The company collects revenue from two sources including business clients and consumers. In 2020, business clients accounted for 49% of total revenue and consumers represented 51% of total revenue.</p><p><b>Business Clients:</b></p><ul><li>The company has a wide range of business clients including Facebook(NASDAQ:FB), Google, and a number of much smaller companies. It had 1,400 business clients at the end of 2020. Nearly 99% of the company's business revenue came from its 172 enterprise clients as of December 31, 2020. The company also had a solid customer retention rate of 118% in 2020 for its enterprise clients.</li><li>AppLovin Software is a comprehensive suite of tools for developers to get their mobile apps discovered and downloaded by the right users, optimize return on marketing spend, and maximize monetization of engagement. AppLovin Software reaches an audience of over 410 million users per day. The company's software solutions provide tools for mobile app developers to expand their businesses by optimizing and automating the marketing and monetization of their apps. Since inception, the company's platform has driven more than 6 billion mobile app installs.</li><li>The company's main software includes AppDiscovery and MAX. Business clients use AppDiscovery to automate, optimize, and manage their app user acquisition investments. They set marketing and user growth goals, and AppDiscovery optimizes their ad spend in an effort to achieve their return on advertising spend targets and other marketing objectives. AppDiscovery comprises the vast majority of revenue from its software.</li><li>Revenue is generated from the advertisers, typically on a performance-based, cost-per-install basis, and shared with the company's advertising publishers, typically on a cost per impression model. Business clients use MAX to optimize purchases of app ad inventory.</li><li>The Compass Analytics tool within MAX provides insights to manage against key performance indicators, understand the long-term value of users, and help manage profitability. Revenue from MAX is generated based on a percentage of client spend. Business clients that purchase advertising inventory from the company's Apps are able to target highly relevant users from its diverse and global portfolio of over 200 mobile games.</li></ul><p><b>Consumers:</b></p><ul><li>The company has also developed and invested in AppLovin Apps, which consist of a globally diversified portfolio of over 200 free-to-play mobile games. These Apps are accessed by nearly 32 million users every day. Consumer revenue is generated when the user of its apps makes an in-app purchase (IAP).</li><li>The company's apps are mostly free-to-play mobile games and generate consumer revenue through in-app purchase of virtual items which are used to enhance gameplay and improve the probabilities of the mobile game progression opportunities.</li><li>During the three months ended December 31, 2020, the company had an average of 2.1 million monthly active payers (MAPs) across its portfolio of apps. Over that period, the company had an average revenue per monthly active payer of $41.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a469e7db2359f56bb1fec2388f2826\" tg-width=\"555\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Major Competitors</b></p><p>In the mobile games and other mobile game app related businesses, the major competitors include Unity Software, Activision Blizzard, Tencent Holdings(OTCPK:TCEHY), and Zynga. In the advertising platform business, the company's major competitors include Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon (AMZN). Many of these companies are also AppLovin's partners and customers. In addition to these mega companies, the company faces competition from thousands of smaller competitors worldwide.</p><p>Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Analysis</p><p>The company has a leveraged balance sheet. Net debt increased from $0.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $1.3 billion at the end of 2020. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio also rose from 260% at the end of 2019 to 315% at the end of 2020. After KKR invested in the company in 2018, it appears that AppLovin was advised to add more leverage and expand the business more aggressively through numerous acquisitions. Through this IPO, the company's balance sheet will become much stronger.</p><p>The company generated positive cash flow from operations and free cash flow in the past two years. Its cash flow from operations and free cash flow averaged $211 million and $207 million, respectively, in 2019 and 2020.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>AppLovin is one of the key beneficiaries of the surging growth of game-related mobile apps. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8, which is about 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. In recent months, some of the major game-related IPOs including Roblox and Unity Software have done really well, although their share prices have come down from their recent highs. AppLovin will likely be compared against these stocks.</p><p>Despite AppLovin's decline in operating margins in 2020 due to higher operating expenses, it is more likely that investors will focus on the company's ability to continue to scale up the business and generate higher sales growth. There remains some uncertainty in terms of how quickly the company is willing to focus on the probability at the expense of lower sales growth. In addition, there are some concerns about the recent weakening sentiment on the tech-related IPOs.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AppLovin: Capitalizing On The Surging Growth Of Mobile Game Apps</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAppLovin: Capitalizing On The Surging Growth Of Mobile Game Apps\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 14:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418129-applovin-capitalizing-growth-mobile-game-apps><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares.At the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion, and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418129-applovin-capitalizing-growth-mobile-game-apps\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APP":"AppLovin Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418129-applovin-capitalizing-growth-mobile-game-apps","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1125635474","content_text":"SummaryAppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares.At the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion, and it would be valued at $30.4 billion.Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8.The company has been a key beneficiary of the surging growth of popular game apps.Despite strong sales growth, its operating margins worsened in 2020 due to higher operating expenses.Investment ThesisAppLovinAppLovin Corporation  is one of the key beneficiaries of the exploding demand for mobile apps, especially for mobile games. The company's sales growth has been surging in recent years as the company has benefited from both organic growth and has been aggressive in making numerous acquisitions in the past three years.Most developers lack access to the marketing, monetization, and data analytics tools required to stand out among the more than 4.8 million mobile apps available on the Apple App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). The company's products and services help many app developers to scale up their business and create a successful app that can be sustained long term. This is where the company's capabilities in app development, marketing, and analytics really stand out.There are more than 1.3 million mobile gaming apps on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.Mobile gamingaccounts for 39% of worldwide app downloads and for 72% of all app store consumer spend by value, according to Sensor Tower.Although the company's operating margins declined in the past two years mainly due to higher operating expenses, we believe that the company's profit margins will turn around this year due to a combination of higher economies of scale and lower operating expenses as a percentage of revenues.Comparable Companies Valuation AnalysisIn the comparable companies valuation analysis, we used the following companies as comps to AppLovin:Unity Software (U)Roblox Corp. (RBLX)Activision Blizzard (ATVI)Zynga (ZNGA)Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% upside from the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO.Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively.The comps' average sales growth in 2020 and 2021 are similar to the sales growth rates of AppLovin in this period. Among the comps, Roblox has the highest sales growth and Activision has the lowest sales growth in 2020 and 2021. Overall, we have assumed higher sales growth for AppLovin versus its peers in 2021 and 2022 and this is one of main reasons why we have applied a 10% higher valuation multiple than the comps.However, Roblox is trading at 19.2x EV/S in 2021 and we have applied a 16x EV/S multiple for AppLovin (17% lower valuation multiple than Roblox). We believe the market will attach a slightly higher valuation multiple for Roblox than AppLovin, mainly due to the former company's higher sales growth and operating margins in 2021, and its brand is more recognized worldwide.Income Statement ForecastAppLovin generated sales of $1,451.1 million and an operating loss of $62.1 million in 2020. The company's sales have nearly tripled from 2018 to 2020. The company's operating margins declined from 50.1% in 2018 to 19.5% in 2019 and -4.3% in 2020. The major reasons for the lower operating margins are due to higher cost of sales, sales & marketing, R&D, and other operating expenses as a percentage of sales.We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%. We have also assumed the company's operating margin to turn positive to 3% in 2021 from -4.3% in 2020. We estimate its operating margins to improve further to 6.8% in 2022, 10.6% in 2023, and 17.8% in 2025. We estimate AppLovin to have sales of $5.1 billion and an operating profit of $0.9 billion in 2025.Company BackgroundThecompanyoriginally started its business helping customers to improve the smartphone customer experiences for all the users. In recent years, the company has become a much bigger player in the mobile gaming segment and it also helps developers to grow their users and improve the monetization of their apps.According to IDC, the company's totalmarket opportunityis estimated to be $189 billion in 2020, growing to $283 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 10.6% in this period. This total market size of $184 billion was derived by adding the worldwide total in-app advertising revenue of $101 billion (including gaming and non-gaming in-app display, video, and other advertising, but excluding in-app search advertising) and worldwide direct game spending of $88 billion for 2020.AppLovin has invested about $1 billion in 15 acquisitions and partnerships since 2018. It owns more than 200 free-to-play mobile games from 12 studios.AppLovinlaunched a gaming business unit called Lion Studios in July 2018. It also acquired a company called Max in September 2018. Max provides in-app bidding service, which is a type of advertising where mobile publishers can sell their ad inventory in an auction method). AppLovin also owns and operates gaming studios Machine Zone, Belka Games, PeopleFun and Firecraft Studios.In February 2021, AppLovin signed an agreement to purchase Adjust for $1 billion (including $598 million in cash and $352 million in convertible securities, and an assumption of up to $40 million in debt). Adjust is a leading mobile app analytics& marketing products company in Germany. Adjust provides tools to prevent mobile advertising fraud and better measure the user base. This acquisition is expected to close in 1H 2021.In the IPO prospectus, the company mentioned that it plans to use $75 million of its Class A common shares for charitable purposes. If the company raises $1 billion in the IPO, this would represent nearly 7.5% of total amount. This is a bit unusual to have this large number of shares allocated for charitable purposes. We applaud this move by the CEO and its senior management. Adam Foroughi, the co-founder and CEO of AppLovin, previously co-founded two advertising technology companies, Lifestreet Media Inc. and Social Hour Inc.AppLovin (Key Metrics)The table provides the company's key metrics. There has been a strong increase in the monthly active payers which jumped from 0.3 million in 2018 to 1.0 million in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2020. However, the enterprise clients declined from 192 in 2018 to 172 in 2020. The company defines its enterprise clients as third-party business clients from which it has collected more than $125,000 of revenue in the trailing 12 months. Average revenue per monthly active payer increased from $11 in 2018 to $32 in 2019 and $41 in 2020.The company's main businesses comprise of its platform and apps. Its platform business mainly includes AppLovin Core Technologies and AppLovin Software. Its apps consist of over 200 free-to-play mobile games in five genres, run by 12 studios including those owned by the company and also those it partners with. The five major game genres offering by the company include casual, hypercasual, match-three, midcore, and card/casino. No single game of the company contributed more than 16% of its total revenue in 2020.Source: Company dataThe company collects revenue from two sources including business clients and consumers. In 2020, business clients accounted for 49% of total revenue and consumers represented 51% of total revenue.Business Clients:The company has a wide range of business clients including Facebook(NASDAQ:FB), Google, and a number of much smaller companies. It had 1,400 business clients at the end of 2020. Nearly 99% of the company's business revenue came from its 172 enterprise clients as of December 31, 2020. The company also had a solid customer retention rate of 118% in 2020 for its enterprise clients.AppLovin Software is a comprehensive suite of tools for developers to get their mobile apps discovered and downloaded by the right users, optimize return on marketing spend, and maximize monetization of engagement. AppLovin Software reaches an audience of over 410 million users per day. The company's software solutions provide tools for mobile app developers to expand their businesses by optimizing and automating the marketing and monetization of their apps. Since inception, the company's platform has driven more than 6 billion mobile app installs.The company's main software includes AppDiscovery and MAX. Business clients use AppDiscovery to automate, optimize, and manage their app user acquisition investments. They set marketing and user growth goals, and AppDiscovery optimizes their ad spend in an effort to achieve their return on advertising spend targets and other marketing objectives. AppDiscovery comprises the vast majority of revenue from its software.Revenue is generated from the advertisers, typically on a performance-based, cost-per-install basis, and shared with the company's advertising publishers, typically on a cost per impression model. Business clients use MAX to optimize purchases of app ad inventory.The Compass Analytics tool within MAX provides insights to manage against key performance indicators, understand the long-term value of users, and help manage profitability. Revenue from MAX is generated based on a percentage of client spend. Business clients that purchase advertising inventory from the company's Apps are able to target highly relevant users from its diverse and global portfolio of over 200 mobile games.Consumers:The company has also developed and invested in AppLovin Apps, which consist of a globally diversified portfolio of over 200 free-to-play mobile games. These Apps are accessed by nearly 32 million users every day. Consumer revenue is generated when the user of its apps makes an in-app purchase (IAP).The company's apps are mostly free-to-play mobile games and generate consumer revenue through in-app purchase of virtual items which are used to enhance gameplay and improve the probabilities of the mobile game progression opportunities.During the three months ended December 31, 2020, the company had an average of 2.1 million monthly active payers (MAPs) across its portfolio of apps. Over that period, the company had an average revenue per monthly active payer of $41.Major CompetitorsIn the mobile games and other mobile game app related businesses, the major competitors include Unity Software, Activision Blizzard, Tencent Holdings(OTCPK:TCEHY), and Zynga. In the advertising platform business, the company's major competitors include Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon (AMZN). Many of these companies are also AppLovin's partners and customers. In addition to these mega companies, the company faces competition from thousands of smaller competitors worldwide.Balance Sheet and Cash Flow AnalysisThe company has a leveraged balance sheet. Net debt increased from $0.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $1.3 billion at the end of 2020. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio also rose from 260% at the end of 2019 to 315% at the end of 2020. After KKR invested in the company in 2018, it appears that AppLovin was advised to add more leverage and expand the business more aggressively through numerous acquisitions. Through this IPO, the company's balance sheet will become much stronger.The company generated positive cash flow from operations and free cash flow in the past two years. Its cash flow from operations and free cash flow averaged $211 million and $207 million, respectively, in 2019 and 2020.ConclusionAppLovin is one of the key beneficiaries of the surging growth of game-related mobile apps. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8, which is about 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. In recent months, some of the major game-related IPOs including Roblox and Unity Software have done really well, although their share prices have come down from their recent highs. AppLovin will likely be compared against these stocks.Despite AppLovin's decline in operating margins in 2020 due to higher operating expenses, it is more likely that investors will focus on the company's ability to continue to scale up the business and generate higher sales growth. There remains some uncertainty in terms of how quickly the company is willing to focus on the probability at the expense of lower sales growth. In addition, there are some concerns about the recent weakening sentiment on the tech-related IPOs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343517146,"gmtCreate":1617724600185,"gmtModify":1704702362763,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip!!","listText":"Buy the dip!!","text":"Buy the dip!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343517146","repostId":"1148389433","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148389433","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617722542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148389433?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148389433","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley ","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley analyst raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fdafffe2ad7670be0c008a1d1462f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>B. Riley analyst Eric Wold said it's time to buy, citing an improving balance sheet outlook and as a strong opening weekend for 'Godzilla vs. Kong' pointed to a resurgence in demand.</p><p>Wold raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target to $13, which is 39% above Thursday's closing price, from $7.</p><p>\"We have remained impressed with management's ability to weather the pandemic headwinds by both strengthening the balance sheet and negotiating with landlords to improve the cash runway into 2022,\" Wold wrote in a note to clients. \"And as the largest exhibitor in North America that also operates the highest number of IMAX screens, we view AMC as well positioned to benefit from the industry's projected resurgence and return to pre-pandemic attendance levels by 2023.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-06 23:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley analyst raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fdafffe2ad7670be0c008a1d1462f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>B. Riley analyst Eric Wold said it's time to buy, citing an improving balance sheet outlook and as a strong opening weekend for 'Godzilla vs. Kong' pointed to a resurgence in demand.</p><p>Wold raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target to $13, which is 39% above Thursday's closing price, from $7.</p><p>\"We have remained impressed with management's ability to weather the pandemic headwinds by both strengthening the balance sheet and negotiating with landlords to improve the cash runway into 2022,\" Wold wrote in a note to clients. \"And as the largest exhibitor in North America that also operates the highest number of IMAX screens, we view AMC as well positioned to benefit from the industry's projected resurgence and return to pre-pandemic attendance levels by 2023.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148389433","content_text":"AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley analyst raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target.B. Riley analyst Eric Wold said it's time to buy, citing an improving balance sheet outlook and as a strong opening weekend for 'Godzilla vs. Kong' pointed to a resurgence in demand.Wold raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target to $13, which is 39% above Thursday's closing price, from $7.\"We have remained impressed with management's ability to weather the pandemic headwinds by both strengthening the balance sheet and negotiating with landlords to improve the cash runway into 2022,\" Wold wrote in a note to clients. \"And as the largest exhibitor in North America that also operates the highest number of IMAX screens, we view AMC as well positioned to benefit from the industry's projected resurgence and return to pre-pandemic attendance levels by 2023.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359267861,"gmtCreate":1616404702453,"gmtModify":1704793582746,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very insightful article.&nbsp;","listText":"Very insightful article.&nbsp;","text":"Very insightful article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359267861","repostId":"1163218484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\"><span>Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Value Meets Growth</b></p>\n<p>Earlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.</p>\n<p>In this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Recap</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\"><span>Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation</span></p>\n<p>Notable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.</p>\n<p>Sustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;<b>Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.</p>\n<p>In 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\"><span>Source: eMarketer.com</span></p>\n<p>While this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.</p>\n<p><b>Growth In Chinese Consumer Spending</b></p>\n<p>One major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.</p>\n<p>According to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.</p>\n<p>This trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.</p>\n<p><b>Live Streaming As A Sales Medium</b></p>\n<p>In recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\"><span>Source: WalkTheChat</span></p>\n<p>Live streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.</p>\n<p>Live-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.</p>\n<p>On Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.</p>\n<p>The growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.</p>\n<p>E-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)</p>\n<p>As the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A Familiar Retail Situation</b></p>\n<p>The current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.</p>\n<p>This makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.</p>\n<p>Live streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.</p>\n<p>Live-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.</p>\n<p>On Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.</p>\n<p>The growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.</p>\n<p>E-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)</p>\n<p>As the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A Familiar Retail Situation</b></p>\n<p>The current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.</p>\n<p>This makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation</span></p>\n<p><b>Favourable Industry Trends</b></p>\n<p>Apart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.</p>\n<p>1. A Rapidly Expanding Market</p>\n<p>According to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.</p>\n<p>2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship</p>\n<p>According to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!</p>\n<p>In the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report</span></p>\n<p>3. Increasing Consumer Spending</p>\n<p>SEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Techpinas.com</span></p>\n<p>This growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\"><span>Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report</span></p>\n<p>4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth</p>\n<p>Over the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Currently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!</p>\n<p><b>A Strong Market Position</b></p>\n<p>Currently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.</p>\n<p>As shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: Nativex</span></p>\n<p>While Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.</p>\n<p><b>Strong Growth Expected In Local Services</b></p>\n<p>An often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.</p>\n<p>Over the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>As of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.</p>\n<p>Between 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.</p>\n<p><b>Innovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth</b></p>\n<p>Another lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.</p>\n<p>New Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\"><span>Source: Author's Illustrations</span></p>\n<p>According to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.</p>\n<p>Capturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth</p>\n<p>Apart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.</p>\n<p>The cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.</p>\n<p>Cloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.</p>\n<p>For Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.</p>\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Rapid Industry Growth</b></p>\n<p>In the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.</p>\n<p>According&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.</p>\n<p>Long term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\"><span>Source: Geekwire</span></p>\n<p>Internationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.</p>\n<p><b>Catalyst For Cloud Development</b></p>\n<p>Other catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Apart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.</p>\n<p>For example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.</p>\n<p>In the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\"><span>Source: Geekwire</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.</p>\n<p><b>Alibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth</b></p>\n<p>While industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Elaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Is Becoming Profitable</b></p>\n<p>Since entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.</p>\n<p>After many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.</p>\n<p>Other Avenues Of Growth</p>\n<p>Apart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Making Strategic Investments</b></p>\n<p>Apart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.</p>\n<p>By making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: Advangent.com</span></p>\n<p>On the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!</p>\n<p>Considering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"</p>\n<p><b>Divesting Non-Core Businesses</b></p>\n<p>While Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.</p>\n<p>And this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.</p>\n<p>With no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.</p>\n<p>Therefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.</p>\n<p><b>Ant Financial</b></p>\n<p>For many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.</p>\n<p>However, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Source: Daxue Consulting</span></p>\n<p>Apart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.</p>\n<p><b>Evaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects</b></p>\n<p>After analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..</p>\n<p>Alibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.</p>\n<p>At this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.</p>\n<p><b>Current Valuation Of Alibaba</b></p>\n<p>In my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author's calculations</span></p>\n<p><b>Assumptions &amp; Estimates Used</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Price Multiples Used</b></p>\n<p>For Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Source:Analyst Prep</span></p>\n<p>With reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.</p>\n<p>Taking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.</p>\n<p>For the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.</p>\n<p>The digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>At a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.</p>\n<p>Finally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.</p>\n<p>I will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327957033,"gmtCreate":1616054375522,"gmtModify":1704790263705,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read!","listText":"Good read!","text":"Good read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327957033","repostId":"1140777123","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140777123","pubTimestamp":1616053819,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140777123?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Rally On","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140777123","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.\nThe stock seems to be f","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.</li>\n <li>The stock seems to be forming a bottom, before it starts rallying again.</li>\n <li>Investors should avoid the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain invested in the name.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir's (PLTR) shares are down 40% in value over the past two months and investment forums are rife with debates on the longevity of this price correction. Some bears are forecasting its shares to fall by another 50% in the near future but the reality may not be so bleak. Latest data actually reveals that short interest in the stock dropped by 26.7% in the last reporting cycle. This suggests that the stock is in the process of forming a bottom and it may not depreciate much, which should come across as an encouraging news for long-side Palantir investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84aaa95ba29871bd3ef8c8b179aa611e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\"><span>Source: Palantir website</span></p>\n<p><b>The dropping short interest</b></p>\n<p>For the uninitiated, short interest is essentially the aggregate number of short positions that are open and yet to be covered. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants have stacked up short positions in a particular stock, in order to profit from a potential price correction. Conversely, a sharp drop in the metric suggests that market participants have wound up their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, with limited downside potential. So, altogether, short interest helps us in gauging the Street's ever-evolving sentiment relating to any given stock.</p>\n<p>As far as Palantir is concerned, its short interest dropped by a massive 26.7% sequentially and stood at 56.43 million at the end of the last cycle. For the record, the last short interest cycle spanned from mid-February to February-end and the data was disseminated only afew daysago. To put things in perspective, the company has about 1.75 billion shares outstanding which means that a mere 3% of its entire share total stood shorted.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11e73699ec600a696859f5389bf092a5\" tg-width=\"222\" tg-height=\"662\"><span>Source: WSJ</span></p>\n<p>This is a miniscule amount of shorting activity. I say this because companies that are surrounded by bearish narratives and have uncertain future prospects, generally attract speculative short-side bets in far greater numbers. I personally view short interest to be considerably high if it amounts to 20% or more of a company's total shares outstanding. But Palantir seems to be thinly shorted by this benchmark. For all we know, its ~3% short interest figure could be comprised of hedging-related bets with the sole purpose of minimizing volatility risk.</p>\n<p>I looked at other software stocks to get a different perspective but to no avail. Out of the 47 stocks in my study, 55% saw their short interest increase while 45% of the stocks registered a decline in their short interest. This more or less even split suggests that market participants wound up their short positions in Palantir largely because of their assessment of the stock and its underlying future prospects, rather than this short covering being driven by industry trends. Besides, shorting activity in Palantir was below industry average, thereby corroborating my view that it's a thinly shorted stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4488d2e553eb79612e74a0b3aa05b72\" tg-width=\"348\" tg-height=\"823\"><span>Data from individual quote pages on wsj.com</span></p>\n<p>This begs the question - why aren't market participants shorting Palantir in the first place?</p>\n<p><b>Cautious for good reason</b></p>\n<p>For starters, Palantir's shares corrected by about 45% within February itself as a knee-jerk reaction to its Q4 results. This provided large gains for short-side market participants in a short time span, prompting them to unwind their positions and book healthy profits. So, that's one of the reasons why Palantir's short interest declined in the last cycle.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81236e9babe568b807c6641dac7fea6e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Besides, with this correction, Palantir's shares are now trading at relatively modest valuation multiples. Per YCharts, its price-to-sales multiple has dropped from a steep 40x in January to a much more reasonable 29.4x at the time of this writing, and the metric is quite close to its 52-week low of around 24x. This suggests that the stock is close to its rock-bottom prices and it might have limited downside potential going forward. So, short-side market participants may be best served by booking profits in Palantir and reallocating their capital in other, more lucrative, trade setups.</p>\n<p>Also, I explained in my previous article that Palantir is transitioning to a recurring payment model. The company used to charge its customers in advance for multi-year agreements, but it's now going to bill customers on recurring intervals, like a software-as-a-service model but with some contract cancellation clauses. We won't be covering the same points again in this article but the crux of it is that this move is likely going to boost Palantir's commercial revenues. This growth prospect makes it a risky move to short Palantir's shares for the time being, at least.</p>\n<p>Also, Palantir, historically, hasn't been too focused on its sales effort. Its&nbsp;10K reads:</p>\n<blockquote>\n …our headcount has grown from 313 full-time employees as of December 31, 2010 to 2,439 full-time employees as of December 31, 2020…\n <b>Our sales force remains relatively small, at about 3% of our total headcount.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>I thinkit's needless to say but having an understaffed sales team is bound to limit new order and sales growth. There just wouldn't be enough sales personnel to aggressively chase and convert leads.</p>\n<p>But Palantir's management seems to be now laser-focused on remedying this oversight by significantly ramping up their sales team. They disclosed last month that the company is gaining access to IBM's&nbsp;2,500 sellers, which is dramatically up from the current 30 sellers. Its management also noted in their&nbsp;Q4 earnings call&nbsp;that they \"expect to add triple digit head count to our sales function this year\".</p>\n<p>This heightened focus on revamping the sales function, and their transition to a more customer friendly payment model, is likely going to generate new deals for Palantir and boost its sales along the way. So, in my view, it's risky move to remain short on Palantir for an extended period of time.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>If bears truly had a legitimate argument against Palantir, they would have actively shorted the name in a bid to profit off of a potential price correction and we'd have seen a rapid rise in its short interest. But that did not happen and Palantir's short interest dropped significantly instead. This suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, and that the stock may have limited downside potential from the current levels. So, I would recommend Palantir's long-side investors to ignore the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain long on the name. Its intensifying sales push and reduced customer resistance with flexible payment plans, are likely going to drive its overall growth going forward. Good Luck!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Rally On</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Rally On\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 15:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414020-palantir-rally-on><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.\nThe stock seems to be forming a bottom, before it starts rallying again.\nInvestors should avoid the fear, uncertainty and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414020-palantir-rally-on\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414020-palantir-rally-on","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1140777123","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.\nThe stock seems to be forming a bottom, before it starts rallying again.\nInvestors should avoid the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain invested in the name.\n\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are down 40% in value over the past two months and investment forums are rife with debates on the longevity of this price correction. Some bears are forecasting its shares to fall by another 50% in the near future but the reality may not be so bleak. Latest data actually reveals that short interest in the stock dropped by 26.7% in the last reporting cycle. This suggests that the stock is in the process of forming a bottom and it may not depreciate much, which should come across as an encouraging news for long-side Palantir investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nSource: Palantir website\nThe dropping short interest\nFor the uninitiated, short interest is essentially the aggregate number of short positions that are open and yet to be covered. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants have stacked up short positions in a particular stock, in order to profit from a potential price correction. Conversely, a sharp drop in the metric suggests that market participants have wound up their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, with limited downside potential. So, altogether, short interest helps us in gauging the Street's ever-evolving sentiment relating to any given stock.\nAs far as Palantir is concerned, its short interest dropped by a massive 26.7% sequentially and stood at 56.43 million at the end of the last cycle. For the record, the last short interest cycle spanned from mid-February to February-end and the data was disseminated only afew daysago. To put things in perspective, the company has about 1.75 billion shares outstanding which means that a mere 3% of its entire share total stood shorted.\nSource: WSJ\nThis is a miniscule amount of shorting activity. I say this because companies that are surrounded by bearish narratives and have uncertain future prospects, generally attract speculative short-side bets in far greater numbers. I personally view short interest to be considerably high if it amounts to 20% or more of a company's total shares outstanding. But Palantir seems to be thinly shorted by this benchmark. For all we know, its ~3% short interest figure could be comprised of hedging-related bets with the sole purpose of minimizing volatility risk.\nI looked at other software stocks to get a different perspective but to no avail. Out of the 47 stocks in my study, 55% saw their short interest increase while 45% of the stocks registered a decline in their short interest. This more or less even split suggests that market participants wound up their short positions in Palantir largely because of their assessment of the stock and its underlying future prospects, rather than this short covering being driven by industry trends. Besides, shorting activity in Palantir was below industry average, thereby corroborating my view that it's a thinly shorted stock.\nData from individual quote pages on wsj.com\nThis begs the question - why aren't market participants shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for good reason\nFor starters, Palantir's shares corrected by about 45% within February itself as a knee-jerk reaction to its Q4 results. This provided large gains for short-side market participants in a short time span, prompting them to unwind their positions and book healthy profits. So, that's one of the reasons why Palantir's short interest declined in the last cycle.\nData by YCharts\nBesides, with this correction, Palantir's shares are now trading at relatively modest valuation multiples. Per YCharts, its price-to-sales multiple has dropped from a steep 40x in January to a much more reasonable 29.4x at the time of this writing, and the metric is quite close to its 52-week low of around 24x. This suggests that the stock is close to its rock-bottom prices and it might have limited downside potential going forward. So, short-side market participants may be best served by booking profits in Palantir and reallocating their capital in other, more lucrative, trade setups.\nAlso, I explained in my previous article that Palantir is transitioning to a recurring payment model. The company used to charge its customers in advance for multi-year agreements, but it's now going to bill customers on recurring intervals, like a software-as-a-service model but with some contract cancellation clauses. We won't be covering the same points again in this article but the crux of it is that this move is likely going to boost Palantir's commercial revenues. This growth prospect makes it a risky move to short Palantir's shares for the time being, at least.\nAlso, Palantir, historically, hasn't been too focused on its sales effort. Its 10K reads:\n\n …our headcount has grown from 313 full-time employees as of December 31, 2010 to 2,439 full-time employees as of December 31, 2020…\n Our sales force remains relatively small, at about 3% of our total headcount.\n\nI thinkit's needless to say but having an understaffed sales team is bound to limit new order and sales growth. There just wouldn't be enough sales personnel to aggressively chase and convert leads.\nBut Palantir's management seems to be now laser-focused on remedying this oversight by significantly ramping up their sales team. They disclosed last month that the company is gaining access to IBM's 2,500 sellers, which is dramatically up from the current 30 sellers. Its management also noted in their Q4 earnings call that they \"expect to add triple digit head count to our sales function this year\".\nThis heightened focus on revamping the sales function, and their transition to a more customer friendly payment model, is likely going to generate new deals for Palantir and boost its sales along the way. So, in my view, it's risky move to remain short on Palantir for an extended period of time.\nFinal Thoughts\nIf bears truly had a legitimate argument against Palantir, they would have actively shorted the name in a bid to profit off of a potential price correction and we'd have seen a rapid rise in its short interest. But that did not happen and Palantir's short interest dropped significantly instead. This suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, and that the stock may have limited downside potential from the current levels. So, I would recommend Palantir's long-side investors to ignore the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain long on the name. Its intensifying sales push and reduced customer resistance with flexible payment plans, are likely going to drive its overall growth going forward. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324659935,"gmtCreate":1615990695927,"gmtModify":1704789446161,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good buy","listText":"Good buy","text":"Good buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324659935","repostId":"1194606272","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325509813,"gmtCreate":1615904480532,"gmtModify":1704788275526,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BUY THE DIPS!!!","listText":"BUY THE DIPS!!!","text":"BUY THE DIPS!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325509813","repostId":"1122286945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122286945","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615902195,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122286945?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122286945","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(March 16) GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday. The Reddit favorite vide","content":"<p>(March 16)&nbsp;GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday.&nbsp;The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1c0801a7e42bda21ddd62a9cd23005\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-16 21:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 16)&nbsp;GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday.&nbsp;The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1c0801a7e42bda21ddd62a9cd23005\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122286945","content_text":"(March 16) GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday. The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362599365,"gmtCreate":1614647014857,"gmtModify":1704773458057,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay green!!","listText":"Stay green!!","text":"Stay green!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362599365","repostId":"1118801983","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118801983","pubTimestamp":1614613243,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118801983?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Climbs 2% Amid Rally Led by Small Caps: Markets Wrap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118801983","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern about the impacts of higher Treasury yields.</p><p>Companies tied to economic reopenings and faster growth led the gains on Monday amid a broad-based rally. The S&amp;P 500 was on track for its biggest advance in almost four months, while the Russell 2000 of small caps outperformed major benchmarks. Johnson &amp; Johnson jumped after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention formally recommended its Covid-19 shot. Zoom Video Communications Inc. advanced ahead of its quarterly results. Benchmark Treasuries were little changed. The dollar fell.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364c24b3bcbc710be3a811425835ebe8\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"554\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 10:38</span></p><p>After a week of intense volatility in bond markets, investors piled back into risk assets. Stocks rebounded following a two-week selloff that was triggered by concern that progress in battling the coronavirus as well as massive stimulus have left some areas of the economy at risk of possibly overheating.</p><p>“Equity investors are still looking at the rise in rates mostly as ‘a good thing’ and not yet as a threat, notwithstanding some shaking of the tree in high multiple stocks and other parts of the market last week,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “The benefits of the vaccines versus the challenge of higher rates will be the theme this year.”</p><p>Bitcoin rallied after a volatile weekend session, riding a broad resurgence in risk assets and a bullish report from Citigroup Inc. The bank’s strategists laid out a case for the digital asset to play a bigger role in the global financial system, saying the cryptocurrency could become “the currency of choice for international trade” in the years ahead.</p><p><b>There are some key events to watch this week:</b></p><p>U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book is due Wednesday.OPEC+ meeting on output Thursday.U.S. factory orders, initial jobless claims and durable goods orders are due Thursday.The February U.S. employment report on Friday will provide an update on the speed and direction of the nation’s labor market recovery.</p><p>These are some of the main moves in markets:</p><p><b>Stocks</b></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 Index surged 2% as of 10:27 a.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 1.8%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.8%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 1.8%.</p><p><b>Currencies</b></p><p>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.2%.The euro declined 0.3% to $1.2042.The Japanese yen was little changed at 106.54 per dollar.</p><p><b>Bonds</b></p><p>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 1.41%.Germany’s 10-year yield sank eight basis points to -0.34%.Britain’s 10-year yield decreased seven basis points to 0.747%.</p><p><b>Commodities</b></p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.5% to $61.80 a barrel.Gold added 0.2% to $1,738.29 an ounce.Silver strengthened 0.7% to $26.86 per ounce.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Climbs 2% Amid Rally Led by Small Caps: Markets Wrap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Climbs 2% Amid Rally Led by Small Caps: Markets Wrap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 23:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yields-focus-stocks-set-open-202935160.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern about the impacts of higher Treasury yields.Companies tied to economic reopenings and faster growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yields-focus-stocks-set-open-202935160.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yields-focus-stocks-set-open-202935160.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118801983","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern about the impacts of higher Treasury yields.Companies tied to economic reopenings and faster growth led the gains on Monday amid a broad-based rally. The S&P 500 was on track for its biggest advance in almost four months, while the Russell 2000 of small caps outperformed major benchmarks. Johnson & Johnson jumped after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention formally recommended its Covid-19 shot. Zoom Video Communications Inc. advanced ahead of its quarterly results. Benchmark Treasuries were little changed. The dollar fell.*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 10:38After a week of intense volatility in bond markets, investors piled back into risk assets. Stocks rebounded following a two-week selloff that was triggered by concern that progress in battling the coronavirus as well as massive stimulus have left some areas of the economy at risk of possibly overheating.“Equity investors are still looking at the rise in rates mostly as ‘a good thing’ and not yet as a threat, notwithstanding some shaking of the tree in high multiple stocks and other parts of the market last week,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “The benefits of the vaccines versus the challenge of higher rates will be the theme this year.”Bitcoin rallied after a volatile weekend session, riding a broad resurgence in risk assets and a bullish report from Citigroup Inc. The bank’s strategists laid out a case for the digital asset to play a bigger role in the global financial system, saying the cryptocurrency could become “the currency of choice for international trade” in the years ahead.There are some key events to watch this week:U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book is due Wednesday.OPEC+ meeting on output Thursday.U.S. factory orders, initial jobless claims and durable goods orders are due Thursday.The February U.S. employment report on Friday will provide an update on the speed and direction of the nation’s labor market recovery.These are some of the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index surged 2% as of 10:27 a.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 1.8%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.8%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 1.8%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.2%.The euro declined 0.3% to $1.2042.The Japanese yen was little changed at 106.54 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 1.41%.Germany’s 10-year yield sank eight basis points to -0.34%.Britain’s 10-year yield decreased seven basis points to 0.747%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.5% to $61.80 a barrel.Gold added 0.2% to $1,738.29 an ounce.Silver strengthened 0.7% to $26.86 per ounce.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":324659935,"gmtCreate":1615990695927,"gmtModify":1704789446161,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good buy","listText":"Good buy","text":"Good buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324659935","repostId":"1194606272","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194606272","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615990525,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194606272?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-17 22:15","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Pinduoduo drops more than 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194606272","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(March 17) Pinduoduo drops more than 8%.Pinduoduo Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.02beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS ","content":"<p>(March 17)&nbsp;Pinduoduo drops more than 8%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf2dac380ffeb19c76c6409e91133a7\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><ul><li>Pinduoduo Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.02beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of -$0.17misses by $0.01.</li><li>Revenue of $4.07B (+162.6% Y/Y)beats by $1.2B.</li><li>Average monthly active users were 719.9M, an increase of 50% from 481.5M in Q4 2019.</li><li>GMV in the TTM ended Dec. 31, 2020 was RMB1,667.6B ($255.6B), +66% from RMB1006.6B in year ended Dec. 31, 2019.</li></ul><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Highlights</b></p><ul><li><b>GMV1</b>&nbsp;in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020wasRMB1,667.6 billion(US$2255.6 billion), an increase of 66% fromRMB1,006.6 billionin the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.</li><li><b>Total revenues</b>&nbsp;in the quarter wereRMB26,547.7 million(US$4,068.6 million), an increase of 146% fromRMB10,792.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Average monthly active users3</b>&nbsp;in the quarter were 719.9 million, an increase of 50% from 481.5 million in the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Active buyers4</b>&nbsp;in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020were 788.4 million, an increase of 35% from 585.2 million in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.</li><li><b>Annual spending per active buyer5</b>&nbsp;in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020wasRMB 2,115.2(US$324.2), an increase of 23% fromRMB 1,720.1in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.</li></ul><p>“We saw six years ago that mobile is the only way to go. Therefore, we are the only major consumer internet company in the world that is mobile only. The mobile internet fundamentally transforms the way humans interact with each other,” said Mr.Lei Chen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer ofPinduoduo.</p><p>“This revolution is tearing down the walls between the physical and digital worlds. Being a mobile-only product in this new age, we are well-placed to benefit from the opportunities thrown up by each behavioral change.”</p><p>“One such change sweeping the world is agriculture and grocery.Pinduoduostarted with agricultural products, with the vision of offering consumers the ‘Costco + Disney’ experience of more savings and more fun. We are now the largest agriculture platform inChinaand we hope thatPinduoduocan one day become the largest grocer in the world,”Mr. Chencontinued.</p><p>“Agriculture is a strategic priority for us, and we will continue to invest in technology and operations across the agricultural value chain to optimize food production, distribution and consumption,” added Mr.David Liu, Vice President of Strategy. “Reducing inefficiencies in the supply chain will lower structural costs and make groceries more affordable for everyone.”</p><p>“We continued to deliver strong results in the fourth quarter and generate positive cash flow from operations,” said Mr.Tony Ma, Vice President of Finance. “Our total revenues for fiscal year 2020 increased 97% from the prior year, and excluding contribution from merchandise sales, our total revenues grew 78%.”</p><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Unaudited Financial Results</b></p><p><b>Total revenues</b>wereRMB26,547.7 million(US$4,068.6 million), an increase of 146% fromRMB10,792.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in revenues from online marketing services and contribution from merchandise sales.</p><ul><li><b>Revenues from online marketing services and others</b>&nbsp;were&nbsp;RMB18,922.0 million(US$2,899.9 million), an increase of 95% fromRMB9,686.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from transaction services</b>wereRMB2,267.9 million(US$347.6 million), an increase of 105% fromRMB1,106.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from merchandise sales</b>wereRMB5,357.8 million(US$821.1 million), an increase ofRMB5,357.8 millionfrom nil in the same quarter of 2019.</li></ul><p><b>Total costs of revenues</b>wereRMB11,526.1 million(US$1,766.5 million), an increase of 466% fromRMB2,037.4 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was mainly due to costs and expenses attributable to merchandise sales, higher cost of payment processing fees, cloud services fees, merchant support services, and delivery and storage fees.</p><p><b>Total operating expenses</b>wereRMB17,069.4 million(US$2,616.0 million), compared withRMB10,890.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</p><ul><li><b>Sales and marketing expenses</b>wereRMB14,712.5 million(US$2,254.8 million), an increase of 59% fromRMB9,272.5 millionin the same quarter of 2019, mainly due to an increase in advertising expenses and promotion and coupon expenses.</li><li><b>General and administrative expenses</b>wereRMB405.6 million(US$62.2 million), an increase of 17% fromRMB345.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019, primarily due to an increase in professional and outsourcing services.</li><li><b>Research and development expenses</b>wereRMB1,951.3 million(US$299.0 million), an increase of 53% fromRMB1,272.4 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in headcount and the recruitment of more experienced R&amp;D personnel and an increase in R&amp;D-related cloud services expenses.</li></ul><p><b>Operating loss</b>wasRMB2,047.8 million(US$313.8 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB2,135.3 millionin the same quarter of 2019.<b>Non-GAAP operating loss6</b>wasRMB1,114.5 million(US$170.8 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB1,336.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB1,376.4 million(US$210.9 million), compared withRMB1,751.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.<b>Non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB184.5 million(US$28.3 million), compared withRMB815.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>Basic and diluted net loss per ADS</b>wereRMB1.13(US$0.17), compared withRMB1.52in the same quarter of 2019.<b>Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS</b>wereRMB0.15(US$0.02), compared withRMB0.72in the same quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>Net cash flow from operating activities</b>wasRMB14,946.6 million(US$2,290.7 million), compared withRMB9,598.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019, primarily due to an increase in online marketing services revenues.</p><p><b>Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments</b>wereRMB87.0 billion(US$13.3 billion) as ofDecember 31, 2020, compared withRMB41.1 billionas ofDecember 31, 2019.</p><p><b>Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p><b>Total revenues</b>wereRMB59,491.9 million(US$9,117.5 million), representing an increase of 97% fromRMB30,141.9 millionin 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in revenues from online marketing services and contribution from merchandise sales.</p><ul><li><b>Revenues from online marketing services and others</b>wereRMB47,953.8 million(US$7,349.2 million), representing an increase of 79% fromRMB26,813.6 millionin 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from transaction services</b>wereRMB5,787.4 million(US$887.0 million), representing an increase of 74% fromRMB3,328.2 millionin 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from merchandise sales</b>wereRMB5,750.7 million(US$881.3 million), an increase ofRMB5,750.7 millionfrom nil in 2019.</li></ul><p><b>Total costs of revenues</b>wereRMB19,278.6 million(US$2,954.6 million), representing an increase of 204% fromRMB6,338.8 millionin 2019. The increase was mainly due to costs and expenses attributable to merchandise sales, higher cost of payment processing fees, cloud services fees, merchant support services, and delivery and storage fees.</p><p><b>Total operating expenses</b>wereRMB49,593.5 million(US$7,600.5 million), compared withRMB32,341.3 millionin 2019.</p><ul><li><b>Sales and marketing expenses</b>wereRMB41,194.6 million(US$6,313.3 million), an increase of 52% fromRMB27,174.2 millionin 2019, mainly due to an increase in advertising expenses and promotion and coupon expenses.</li><li><b>General and administrative expenses</b>wereRMB1,507.3 million(US$231.0 million), an increase of 16% fromRMB1,296.7 millionin 2019, primarily due to an increase in headcount.</li><li><b>Research and development expenses</b>wereRMB6,891.7 million(US$1,056.2 million), an increase of 78% fromRMB3,870.4 millionin 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in headcount and the recruitment of more experienced R&amp;D personnel and an increase in R&amp;D-related cloud services expenses.</li></ul><p><b>Operating loss</b>wasRMB9,380.3 million(US$1,437.6 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB8,538.2 millionin 2019.<b>Non-GAAP operating loss</b>wasRMB5,767.3 million(US$883.9 million), compared withRMB5,980.5 millionin 2019.</p><p><b>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB7,179.7 million(US$1,100.3 million), compared withRMB6,967.6 millionin 2019.<b>Non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB2,965.0 million(US$454.4 million), compared withRMB4,265.8 millionin 2019.</p><p><b>Basic and diluted net loss per ADS</b>wereRMB6.02(US$0.92), compared withRMB6.04in 2019. Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS wereRMB2.49(US$0.38), compared withRMB3.68in 2019.</p><p><b>Net cash provided by operating activities</b>wasRMB28,196.6 million(US$4,321.3 million), compared withRMB14,821.0 millionin 2019, primarily due to an increase in online marketing services revenues.</p><p><b>Recent Development</b></p><p>As of&nbsp;February 28, 2021,US$711.9 millionof the 0% convertible bond due in 2024 have been converted into newly issued ADSs.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pinduoduo drops more than 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPinduoduo drops more than 8%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-17 22:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 17)&nbsp;Pinduoduo drops more than 8%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf2dac380ffeb19c76c6409e91133a7\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><ul><li>Pinduoduo Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.02beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of -$0.17misses by $0.01.</li><li>Revenue of $4.07B (+162.6% Y/Y)beats by $1.2B.</li><li>Average monthly active users were 719.9M, an increase of 50% from 481.5M in Q4 2019.</li><li>GMV in the TTM ended Dec. 31, 2020 was RMB1,667.6B ($255.6B), +66% from RMB1006.6B in year ended Dec. 31, 2019.</li></ul><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Highlights</b></p><ul><li><b>GMV1</b>&nbsp;in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020wasRMB1,667.6 billion(US$2255.6 billion), an increase of 66% fromRMB1,006.6 billionin the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.</li><li><b>Total revenues</b>&nbsp;in the quarter wereRMB26,547.7 million(US$4,068.6 million), an increase of 146% fromRMB10,792.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Average monthly active users3</b>&nbsp;in the quarter were 719.9 million, an increase of 50% from 481.5 million in the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Active buyers4</b>&nbsp;in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020were 788.4 million, an increase of 35% from 585.2 million in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.</li><li><b>Annual spending per active buyer5</b>&nbsp;in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020wasRMB 2,115.2(US$324.2), an increase of 23% fromRMB 1,720.1in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.</li></ul><p>“We saw six years ago that mobile is the only way to go. Therefore, we are the only major consumer internet company in the world that is mobile only. The mobile internet fundamentally transforms the way humans interact with each other,” said Mr.Lei Chen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer ofPinduoduo.</p><p>“This revolution is tearing down the walls between the physical and digital worlds. Being a mobile-only product in this new age, we are well-placed to benefit from the opportunities thrown up by each behavioral change.”</p><p>“One such change sweeping the world is agriculture and grocery.Pinduoduostarted with agricultural products, with the vision of offering consumers the ‘Costco + Disney’ experience of more savings and more fun. We are now the largest agriculture platform inChinaand we hope thatPinduoduocan one day become the largest grocer in the world,”Mr. Chencontinued.</p><p>“Agriculture is a strategic priority for us, and we will continue to invest in technology and operations across the agricultural value chain to optimize food production, distribution and consumption,” added Mr.David Liu, Vice President of Strategy. “Reducing inefficiencies in the supply chain will lower structural costs and make groceries more affordable for everyone.”</p><p>“We continued to deliver strong results in the fourth quarter and generate positive cash flow from operations,” said Mr.Tony Ma, Vice President of Finance. “Our total revenues for fiscal year 2020 increased 97% from the prior year, and excluding contribution from merchandise sales, our total revenues grew 78%.”</p><p><b>Fourth Quarter 2020 Unaudited Financial Results</b></p><p><b>Total revenues</b>wereRMB26,547.7 million(US$4,068.6 million), an increase of 146% fromRMB10,792.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in revenues from online marketing services and contribution from merchandise sales.</p><ul><li><b>Revenues from online marketing services and others</b>&nbsp;were&nbsp;RMB18,922.0 million(US$2,899.9 million), an increase of 95% fromRMB9,686.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from transaction services</b>wereRMB2,267.9 million(US$347.6 million), an increase of 105% fromRMB1,106.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from merchandise sales</b>wereRMB5,357.8 million(US$821.1 million), an increase ofRMB5,357.8 millionfrom nil in the same quarter of 2019.</li></ul><p><b>Total costs of revenues</b>wereRMB11,526.1 million(US$1,766.5 million), an increase of 466% fromRMB2,037.4 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was mainly due to costs and expenses attributable to merchandise sales, higher cost of payment processing fees, cloud services fees, merchant support services, and delivery and storage fees.</p><p><b>Total operating expenses</b>wereRMB17,069.4 million(US$2,616.0 million), compared withRMB10,890.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</p><ul><li><b>Sales and marketing expenses</b>wereRMB14,712.5 million(US$2,254.8 million), an increase of 59% fromRMB9,272.5 millionin the same quarter of 2019, mainly due to an increase in advertising expenses and promotion and coupon expenses.</li><li><b>General and administrative expenses</b>wereRMB405.6 million(US$62.2 million), an increase of 17% fromRMB345.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019, primarily due to an increase in professional and outsourcing services.</li><li><b>Research and development expenses</b>wereRMB1,951.3 million(US$299.0 million), an increase of 53% fromRMB1,272.4 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in headcount and the recruitment of more experienced R&amp;D personnel and an increase in R&amp;D-related cloud services expenses.</li></ul><p><b>Operating loss</b>wasRMB2,047.8 million(US$313.8 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB2,135.3 millionin the same quarter of 2019.<b>Non-GAAP operating loss6</b>wasRMB1,114.5 million(US$170.8 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB1,336.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB1,376.4 million(US$210.9 million), compared withRMB1,751.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.<b>Non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB184.5 million(US$28.3 million), compared withRMB815.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>Basic and diluted net loss per ADS</b>wereRMB1.13(US$0.17), compared withRMB1.52in the same quarter of 2019.<b>Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS</b>wereRMB0.15(US$0.02), compared withRMB0.72in the same quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>Net cash flow from operating activities</b>wasRMB14,946.6 million(US$2,290.7 million), compared withRMB9,598.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019, primarily due to an increase in online marketing services revenues.</p><p><b>Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments</b>wereRMB87.0 billion(US$13.3 billion) as ofDecember 31, 2020, compared withRMB41.1 billionas ofDecember 31, 2019.</p><p><b>Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results</b></p><p><b>Total revenues</b>wereRMB59,491.9 million(US$9,117.5 million), representing an increase of 97% fromRMB30,141.9 millionin 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in revenues from online marketing services and contribution from merchandise sales.</p><ul><li><b>Revenues from online marketing services and others</b>wereRMB47,953.8 million(US$7,349.2 million), representing an increase of 79% fromRMB26,813.6 millionin 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from transaction services</b>wereRMB5,787.4 million(US$887.0 million), representing an increase of 74% fromRMB3,328.2 millionin 2019.</li><li><b>Revenues from merchandise sales</b>wereRMB5,750.7 million(US$881.3 million), an increase ofRMB5,750.7 millionfrom nil in 2019.</li></ul><p><b>Total costs of revenues</b>wereRMB19,278.6 million(US$2,954.6 million), representing an increase of 204% fromRMB6,338.8 millionin 2019. The increase was mainly due to costs and expenses attributable to merchandise sales, higher cost of payment processing fees, cloud services fees, merchant support services, and delivery and storage fees.</p><p><b>Total operating expenses</b>wereRMB49,593.5 million(US$7,600.5 million), compared withRMB32,341.3 millionin 2019.</p><ul><li><b>Sales and marketing expenses</b>wereRMB41,194.6 million(US$6,313.3 million), an increase of 52% fromRMB27,174.2 millionin 2019, mainly due to an increase in advertising expenses and promotion and coupon expenses.</li><li><b>General and administrative expenses</b>wereRMB1,507.3 million(US$231.0 million), an increase of 16% fromRMB1,296.7 millionin 2019, primarily due to an increase in headcount.</li><li><b>Research and development expenses</b>wereRMB6,891.7 million(US$1,056.2 million), an increase of 78% fromRMB3,870.4 millionin 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in headcount and the recruitment of more experienced R&amp;D personnel and an increase in R&amp;D-related cloud services expenses.</li></ul><p><b>Operating loss</b>wasRMB9,380.3 million(US$1,437.6 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB8,538.2 millionin 2019.<b>Non-GAAP operating loss</b>wasRMB5,767.3 million(US$883.9 million), compared withRMB5,980.5 millionin 2019.</p><p><b>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB7,179.7 million(US$1,100.3 million), compared withRMB6,967.6 millionin 2019.<b>Non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>wasRMB2,965.0 million(US$454.4 million), compared withRMB4,265.8 millionin 2019.</p><p><b>Basic and diluted net loss per ADS</b>wereRMB6.02(US$0.92), compared withRMB6.04in 2019. Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS wereRMB2.49(US$0.38), compared withRMB3.68in 2019.</p><p><b>Net cash provided by operating activities</b>wasRMB28,196.6 million(US$4,321.3 million), compared withRMB14,821.0 millionin 2019, primarily due to an increase in online marketing services revenues.</p><p><b>Recent Development</b></p><p>As of&nbsp;February 28, 2021,US$711.9 millionof the 0% convertible bond due in 2024 have been converted into newly issued ADSs.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194606272","content_text":"(March 17) Pinduoduo drops more than 8%.Pinduoduo Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.02beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of -$0.17misses by $0.01.Revenue of $4.07B (+162.6% Y/Y)beats by $1.2B.Average monthly active users were 719.9M, an increase of 50% from 481.5M in Q4 2019.GMV in the TTM ended Dec. 31, 2020 was RMB1,667.6B ($255.6B), +66% from RMB1006.6B in year ended Dec. 31, 2019.Fourth Quarter 2020 HighlightsGMV1 in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020wasRMB1,667.6 billion(US$2255.6 billion), an increase of 66% fromRMB1,006.6 billionin the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.Total revenues in the quarter wereRMB26,547.7 million(US$4,068.6 million), an increase of 146% fromRMB10,792.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Average monthly active users3 in the quarter were 719.9 million, an increase of 50% from 481.5 million in the same quarter of 2019.Active buyers4 in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020were 788.4 million, an increase of 35% from 585.2 million in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.Annual spending per active buyer5 in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2020wasRMB 2,115.2(US$324.2), an increase of 23% fromRMB 1,720.1in the twelve-month period endedDecember 31, 2019.“We saw six years ago that mobile is the only way to go. Therefore, we are the only major consumer internet company in the world that is mobile only. The mobile internet fundamentally transforms the way humans interact with each other,” said Mr.Lei Chen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer ofPinduoduo.“This revolution is tearing down the walls between the physical and digital worlds. Being a mobile-only product in this new age, we are well-placed to benefit from the opportunities thrown up by each behavioral change.”“One such change sweeping the world is agriculture and grocery.Pinduoduostarted with agricultural products, with the vision of offering consumers the ‘Costco + Disney’ experience of more savings and more fun. We are now the largest agriculture platform inChinaand we hope thatPinduoduocan one day become the largest grocer in the world,”Mr. Chencontinued.“Agriculture is a strategic priority for us, and we will continue to invest in technology and operations across the agricultural value chain to optimize food production, distribution and consumption,” added Mr.David Liu, Vice President of Strategy. “Reducing inefficiencies in the supply chain will lower structural costs and make groceries more affordable for everyone.”“We continued to deliver strong results in the fourth quarter and generate positive cash flow from operations,” said Mr.Tony Ma, Vice President of Finance. “Our total revenues for fiscal year 2020 increased 97% from the prior year, and excluding contribution from merchandise sales, our total revenues grew 78%.”Fourth Quarter 2020 Unaudited Financial ResultsTotal revenueswereRMB26,547.7 million(US$4,068.6 million), an increase of 146% fromRMB10,792.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in revenues from online marketing services and contribution from merchandise sales.Revenues from online marketing services and others were RMB18,922.0 million(US$2,899.9 million), an increase of 95% fromRMB9,686.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Revenues from transaction serviceswereRMB2,267.9 million(US$347.6 million), an increase of 105% fromRMB1,106.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Revenues from merchandise saleswereRMB5,357.8 million(US$821.1 million), an increase ofRMB5,357.8 millionfrom nil in the same quarter of 2019.Total costs of revenueswereRMB11,526.1 million(US$1,766.5 million), an increase of 466% fromRMB2,037.4 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was mainly due to costs and expenses attributable to merchandise sales, higher cost of payment processing fees, cloud services fees, merchant support services, and delivery and storage fees.Total operating expenseswereRMB17,069.4 million(US$2,616.0 million), compared withRMB10,890.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Sales and marketing expenseswereRMB14,712.5 million(US$2,254.8 million), an increase of 59% fromRMB9,272.5 millionin the same quarter of 2019, mainly due to an increase in advertising expenses and promotion and coupon expenses.General and administrative expenseswereRMB405.6 million(US$62.2 million), an increase of 17% fromRMB345.7 millionin the same quarter of 2019, primarily due to an increase in professional and outsourcing services.Research and development expenseswereRMB1,951.3 million(US$299.0 million), an increase of 53% fromRMB1,272.4 millionin the same quarter of 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in headcount and the recruitment of more experienced R&D personnel and an increase in R&D-related cloud services expenses.Operating losswasRMB2,047.8 million(US$313.8 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB2,135.3 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Non-GAAP operating loss6wasRMB1,114.5 million(US$170.8 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB1,336.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholderswasRMB1,376.4 million(US$210.9 million), compared withRMB1,751.6 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholderswasRMB184.5 million(US$28.3 million), compared withRMB815.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019.Basic and diluted net loss per ADSwereRMB1.13(US$0.17), compared withRMB1.52in the same quarter of 2019.Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADSwereRMB0.15(US$0.02), compared withRMB0.72in the same quarter of 2019.Net cash flow from operating activitieswasRMB14,946.6 million(US$2,290.7 million), compared withRMB9,598.0 millionin the same quarter of 2019, primarily due to an increase in online marketing services revenues.Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investmentswereRMB87.0 billion(US$13.3 billion) as ofDecember 31, 2020, compared withRMB41.1 billionas ofDecember 31, 2019.Fiscal Year 2020 Financial ResultsTotal revenueswereRMB59,491.9 million(US$9,117.5 million), representing an increase of 97% fromRMB30,141.9 millionin 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in revenues from online marketing services and contribution from merchandise sales.Revenues from online marketing services and otherswereRMB47,953.8 million(US$7,349.2 million), representing an increase of 79% fromRMB26,813.6 millionin 2019.Revenues from transaction serviceswereRMB5,787.4 million(US$887.0 million), representing an increase of 74% fromRMB3,328.2 millionin 2019.Revenues from merchandise saleswereRMB5,750.7 million(US$881.3 million), an increase ofRMB5,750.7 millionfrom nil in 2019.Total costs of revenueswereRMB19,278.6 million(US$2,954.6 million), representing an increase of 204% fromRMB6,338.8 millionin 2019. The increase was mainly due to costs and expenses attributable to merchandise sales, higher cost of payment processing fees, cloud services fees, merchant support services, and delivery and storage fees.Total operating expenseswereRMB49,593.5 million(US$7,600.5 million), compared withRMB32,341.3 millionin 2019.Sales and marketing expenseswereRMB41,194.6 million(US$6,313.3 million), an increase of 52% fromRMB27,174.2 millionin 2019, mainly due to an increase in advertising expenses and promotion and coupon expenses.General and administrative expenseswereRMB1,507.3 million(US$231.0 million), an increase of 16% fromRMB1,296.7 millionin 2019, primarily due to an increase in headcount.Research and development expenseswereRMB6,891.7 million(US$1,056.2 million), an increase of 78% fromRMB3,870.4 millionin 2019. The increase was primarily due to an increase in headcount and the recruitment of more experienced R&D personnel and an increase in R&D-related cloud services expenses.Operating losswasRMB9,380.3 million(US$1,437.6 million), compared with operating loss ofRMB8,538.2 millionin 2019.Non-GAAP operating losswasRMB5,767.3 million(US$883.9 million), compared withRMB5,980.5 millionin 2019.Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholderswasRMB7,179.7 million(US$1,100.3 million), compared withRMB6,967.6 millionin 2019.Non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholderswasRMB2,965.0 million(US$454.4 million), compared withRMB4,265.8 millionin 2019.Basic and diluted net loss per ADSwereRMB6.02(US$0.92), compared withRMB6.04in 2019. Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ADS wereRMB2.49(US$0.38), compared withRMB3.68in 2019.Net cash provided by operating activitieswasRMB28,196.6 million(US$4,321.3 million), compared withRMB14,821.0 millionin 2019, primarily due to an increase in online marketing services revenues.Recent DevelopmentAs of February 28, 2021,US$711.9 millionof the 0% convertible bond due in 2024 have been converted into newly issued ADSs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343517146,"gmtCreate":1617724600185,"gmtModify":1704702362763,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip!!","listText":"Buy the dip!!","text":"Buy the dip!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343517146","repostId":"1148389433","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148389433","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617722542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148389433?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148389433","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley ","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley analyst raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fdafffe2ad7670be0c008a1d1462f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>B. Riley analyst Eric Wold said it's time to buy, citing an improving balance sheet outlook and as a strong opening weekend for 'Godzilla vs. Kong' pointed to a resurgence in demand.</p><p>Wold raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target to $13, which is 39% above Thursday's closing price, from $7.</p><p>\"We have remained impressed with management's ability to weather the pandemic headwinds by both strengthening the balance sheet and negotiating with landlords to improve the cash runway into 2022,\" Wold wrote in a note to clients. \"And as the largest exhibitor in North America that also operates the highest number of IMAX screens, we view AMC as well positioned to benefit from the industry's projected resurgence and return to pre-pandemic attendance levels by 2023.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-06 23:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley analyst raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fdafffe2ad7670be0c008a1d1462f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>B. Riley analyst Eric Wold said it's time to buy, citing an improving balance sheet outlook and as a strong opening weekend for 'Godzilla vs. Kong' pointed to a resurgence in demand.</p><p>Wold raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target to $13, which is 39% above Thursday's closing price, from $7.</p><p>\"We have remained impressed with management's ability to weather the pandemic headwinds by both strengthening the balance sheet and negotiating with landlords to improve the cash runway into 2022,\" Wold wrote in a note to clients. \"And as the largest exhibitor in North America that also operates the highest number of IMAX screens, we view AMC as well positioned to benefit from the industry's projected resurgence and return to pre-pandemic attendance levels by 2023.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148389433","content_text":"AMC Entertainment stock fell 5% After yesterday's surge.The shares surged 13% yesterday on B. Riley analyst raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target.B. Riley analyst Eric Wold said it's time to buy, citing an improving balance sheet outlook and as a strong opening weekend for 'Godzilla vs. Kong' pointed to a resurgence in demand.Wold raised his rating to buy from neutral, and boosted his price target to $13, which is 39% above Thursday's closing price, from $7.\"We have remained impressed with management's ability to weather the pandemic headwinds by both strengthening the balance sheet and negotiating with landlords to improve the cash runway into 2022,\" Wold wrote in a note to clients. \"And as the largest exhibitor in North America that also operates the highest number of IMAX screens, we view AMC as well positioned to benefit from the industry's projected resurgence and return to pre-pandemic attendance levels by 2023.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345628775,"gmtCreate":1618311346697,"gmtModify":1704708942131,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345628775","repostId":"1125635474","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125635474","pubTimestamp":1618295945,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125635474?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AppLovin: Capitalizing On The Surging Growth Of Mobile Game Apps","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125635474","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 mil","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>AppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares.</li><li>At the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion, and it would be valued at $30.4 billion.</li><li>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8.</li><li>The company has been a key beneficiary of the surging growth of popular game apps.</li><li>Despite strong sales growth, its operating margins worsened in 2020 due to higher operating expenses.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>AppLovin<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APP\">AppLovin Corporation</a>  is one of the key beneficiaries of the exploding demand for mobile apps, especially for mobile games. The company's sales growth has been surging in recent years as the company has benefited from both organic growth and has been aggressive in making numerous acquisitions in the past three years.</p><p>Most developers lack access to the marketing, monetization, and data analytics tools required to stand out among the more than 4.8 million mobile apps available on the Apple App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). The company's products and services help many app developers to scale up their business and create a successful app that can be sustained long term. This is where the company's capabilities in app development, marketing, and analytics really stand out.</p><p>There are more than 1.3 million mobile gaming apps on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.Mobile gamingaccounts for 39% of worldwide app downloads and for 72% of all app store consumer spend by value, according to Sensor Tower.</p><p>Although the company's operating margins declined in the past two years mainly due to higher operating expenses, we believe that the company's profit margins will turn around this year due to a combination of higher economies of scale and lower operating expenses as a percentage of revenues.</p><p><b>Comparable Companies Valuation Analysis</b></p><p>In the comparable companies valuation analysis, we used the following companies as comps to AppLovin:</p><ul><li>Unity Software (U)</li><li>Roblox Corp. (RBLX)</li><li>Activision Blizzard (ATVI)</li><li>Zynga (ZNGA)</li></ul><p>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% upside from the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO.</p><p>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively.</p><p>The comps' average sales growth in 2020 and 2021 are similar to the sales growth rates of AppLovin in this period. Among the comps, Roblox has the highest sales growth and Activision has the lowest sales growth in 2020 and 2021. Overall, we have assumed higher sales growth for AppLovin versus its peers in 2021 and 2022 and this is one of main reasons why we have applied a 10% higher valuation multiple than the comps.</p><p>However, Roblox is trading at 19.2x EV/S in 2021 and we have applied a 16x EV/S multiple for AppLovin (17% lower valuation multiple than Roblox). We believe the market will attach a slightly higher valuation multiple for Roblox than AppLovin, mainly due to the former company's higher sales growth and operating margins in 2021, and its brand is more recognized worldwide.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47032411f633c63c676152889baa874\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ea8b356b98201f398b48bd4d57e507a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2dfe8877740e842bb1e143c157e39c\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aec05aa4790c780a95e2527c62896e9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee98f1dd0f1c0becb865f331a283068\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96321e40b2bb290d968a20e0a3832de8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327d495d893132d12a74cc91d93df055\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Income Statement Forecast</b></p><p>AppLovin generated sales of $1,451.1 million and an operating loss of $62.1 million in 2020. The company's sales have nearly tripled from 2018 to 2020. The company's operating margins declined from 50.1% in 2018 to 19.5% in 2019 and -4.3% in 2020. The major reasons for the lower operating margins are due to higher cost of sales, sales &amp; marketing, R&amp;D, and other operating expenses as a percentage of sales.</p><p>We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%. We have also assumed the company's operating margin to turn positive to 3% in 2021 from -4.3% in 2020. We estimate its operating margins to improve further to 6.8% in 2022, 10.6% in 2023, and 17.8% in 2025. We estimate AppLovin to have sales of $5.1 billion and an operating profit of $0.9 billion in 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e58f808f42f4c3a1e238b587f637063\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1026d63d84ac8f26d8391d7e91317b9e\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9bf6e155cbc281373a8fac78fd3e08b\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Company Background</b></p><p>Thecompanyoriginally started its business helping customers to improve the smartphone customer experiences for all the users. In recent years, the company has become a much bigger player in the mobile gaming segment and it also helps developers to grow their users and improve the monetization of their apps.</p><p>According to IDC, the company's totalmarket opportunityis estimated to be $189 billion in 2020, growing to $283 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 10.6% in this period. This total market size of $184 billion was derived by adding the worldwide total in-app advertising revenue of $101 billion (including gaming and non-gaming in-app display, video, and other advertising, but excluding in-app search advertising) and worldwide direct game spending of $88 billion for 2020.</p><p>AppLovin has invested about $1 billion in 15 acquisitions and partnerships since 2018. It owns more than 200 free-to-play mobile games from 12 studios.AppLovinlaunched a gaming business unit called Lion Studios in July 2018. It also acquired a company called Max in September 2018. Max provides in-app bidding service, which is a type of advertising where mobile publishers can sell their ad inventory in an auction method). AppLovin also owns and operates gaming studios Machine Zone, Belka Games, PeopleFun and Firecraft Studios.</p><p>In February 2021, AppLovin signed an agreement to purchase Adjust for $1 billion (including $598 million in cash and $352 million in convertible securities, and an assumption of up to $40 million in debt). Adjust is a leading mobile app analytics&amp; marketing products company in Germany. Adjust provides tools to prevent mobile advertising fraud and better measure the user base. This acquisition is expected to close in 1H 2021.</p><p>In the IPO prospectus, the company mentioned that it plans to use $75 million of its Class A common shares for charitable purposes. If the company raises $1 billion in the IPO, this would represent nearly 7.5% of total amount. This is a bit unusual to have this large number of shares allocated for charitable purposes. We applaud this move by the CEO and its senior management. Adam Foroughi, the co-founder and CEO of AppLovin, previously co-founded two advertising technology companies, Lifestreet Media Inc. and Social Hour Inc.</p><p><b>AppLovin (Key Metrics)</b></p><p>The table provides the company's key metrics. There has been a strong increase in the monthly active payers which jumped from 0.3 million in 2018 to 1.0 million in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2020. However, the enterprise clients declined from 192 in 2018 to 172 in 2020. The company defines its enterprise clients as third-party business clients from which it has collected more than $125,000 of revenue in the trailing 12 months. Average revenue per monthly active payer increased from $11 in 2018 to $32 in 2019 and $41 in 2020.</p><p>The company's main businesses comprise of its platform and apps. Its platform business mainly includes AppLovin Core Technologies and AppLovin Software. Its apps consist of over 200 free-to-play mobile games in five genres, run by 12 studios including those owned by the company and also those it partners with. The five major game genres offering by the company include casual, hypercasual, match-three, midcore, and card/casino. No single game of the company contributed more than 16% of its total revenue in 2020.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0638b1ba5528bc65ee975156f3bcfd46\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company data</span></p><p>The company collects revenue from two sources including business clients and consumers. In 2020, business clients accounted for 49% of total revenue and consumers represented 51% of total revenue.</p><p><b>Business Clients:</b></p><ul><li>The company has a wide range of business clients including Facebook(NASDAQ:FB), Google, and a number of much smaller companies. It had 1,400 business clients at the end of 2020. Nearly 99% of the company's business revenue came from its 172 enterprise clients as of December 31, 2020. The company also had a solid customer retention rate of 118% in 2020 for its enterprise clients.</li><li>AppLovin Software is a comprehensive suite of tools for developers to get their mobile apps discovered and downloaded by the right users, optimize return on marketing spend, and maximize monetization of engagement. AppLovin Software reaches an audience of over 410 million users per day. The company's software solutions provide tools for mobile app developers to expand their businesses by optimizing and automating the marketing and monetization of their apps. Since inception, the company's platform has driven more than 6 billion mobile app installs.</li><li>The company's main software includes AppDiscovery and MAX. Business clients use AppDiscovery to automate, optimize, and manage their app user acquisition investments. They set marketing and user growth goals, and AppDiscovery optimizes their ad spend in an effort to achieve their return on advertising spend targets and other marketing objectives. AppDiscovery comprises the vast majority of revenue from its software.</li><li>Revenue is generated from the advertisers, typically on a performance-based, cost-per-install basis, and shared with the company's advertising publishers, typically on a cost per impression model. Business clients use MAX to optimize purchases of app ad inventory.</li><li>The Compass Analytics tool within MAX provides insights to manage against key performance indicators, understand the long-term value of users, and help manage profitability. Revenue from MAX is generated based on a percentage of client spend. Business clients that purchase advertising inventory from the company's Apps are able to target highly relevant users from its diverse and global portfolio of over 200 mobile games.</li></ul><p><b>Consumers:</b></p><ul><li>The company has also developed and invested in AppLovin Apps, which consist of a globally diversified portfolio of over 200 free-to-play mobile games. These Apps are accessed by nearly 32 million users every day. Consumer revenue is generated when the user of its apps makes an in-app purchase (IAP).</li><li>The company's apps are mostly free-to-play mobile games and generate consumer revenue through in-app purchase of virtual items which are used to enhance gameplay and improve the probabilities of the mobile game progression opportunities.</li><li>During the three months ended December 31, 2020, the company had an average of 2.1 million monthly active payers (MAPs) across its portfolio of apps. Over that period, the company had an average revenue per monthly active payer of $41.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a469e7db2359f56bb1fec2388f2826\" tg-width=\"555\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Major Competitors</b></p><p>In the mobile games and other mobile game app related businesses, the major competitors include Unity Software, Activision Blizzard, Tencent Holdings(OTCPK:TCEHY), and Zynga. In the advertising platform business, the company's major competitors include Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon (AMZN). Many of these companies are also AppLovin's partners and customers. In addition to these mega companies, the company faces competition from thousands of smaller competitors worldwide.</p><p>Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Analysis</p><p>The company has a leveraged balance sheet. Net debt increased from $0.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $1.3 billion at the end of 2020. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio also rose from 260% at the end of 2019 to 315% at the end of 2020. After KKR invested in the company in 2018, it appears that AppLovin was advised to add more leverage and expand the business more aggressively through numerous acquisitions. Through this IPO, the company's balance sheet will become much stronger.</p><p>The company generated positive cash flow from operations and free cash flow in the past two years. Its cash flow from operations and free cash flow averaged $211 million and $207 million, respectively, in 2019 and 2020.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>AppLovin is one of the key beneficiaries of the surging growth of game-related mobile apps. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8, which is about 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. In recent months, some of the major game-related IPOs including Roblox and Unity Software have done really well, although their share prices have come down from their recent highs. AppLovin will likely be compared against these stocks.</p><p>Despite AppLovin's decline in operating margins in 2020 due to higher operating expenses, it is more likely that investors will focus on the company's ability to continue to scale up the business and generate higher sales growth. There remains some uncertainty in terms of how quickly the company is willing to focus on the probability at the expense of lower sales growth. In addition, there are some concerns about the recent weakening sentiment on the tech-related IPOs.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AppLovin: Capitalizing On The Surging Growth Of Mobile Game Apps</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAppLovin: Capitalizing On The Surging Growth Of Mobile Game Apps\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 14:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418129-applovin-capitalizing-growth-mobile-game-apps><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares.At the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion, and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418129-applovin-capitalizing-growth-mobile-game-apps\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APP":"AppLovin Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418129-applovin-capitalizing-growth-mobile-game-apps","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1125635474","content_text":"SummaryAppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares.At the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion, and it would be valued at $30.4 billion.Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8.The company has been a key beneficiary of the surging growth of popular game apps.Despite strong sales growth, its operating margins worsened in 2020 due to higher operating expenses.Investment ThesisAppLovinAppLovin Corporation  is one of the key beneficiaries of the exploding demand for mobile apps, especially for mobile games. The company's sales growth has been surging in recent years as the company has benefited from both organic growth and has been aggressive in making numerous acquisitions in the past three years.Most developers lack access to the marketing, monetization, and data analytics tools required to stand out among the more than 4.8 million mobile apps available on the Apple App Store(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google Play Store(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL). The company's products and services help many app developers to scale up their business and create a successful app that can be sustained long term. This is where the company's capabilities in app development, marketing, and analytics really stand out.There are more than 1.3 million mobile gaming apps on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.Mobile gamingaccounts for 39% of worldwide app downloads and for 72% of all app store consumer spend by value, according to Sensor Tower.Although the company's operating margins declined in the past two years mainly due to higher operating expenses, we believe that the company's profit margins will turn around this year due to a combination of higher economies of scale and lower operating expenses as a percentage of revenues.Comparable Companies Valuation AnalysisIn the comparable companies valuation analysis, we used the following companies as comps to AppLovin:Unity Software (U)Roblox Corp. (RBLX)Activision Blizzard (ATVI)Zynga (ZNGA)Our base case valuation of AppLovin is an EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% upside from the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO.Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively.The comps' average sales growth in 2020 and 2021 are similar to the sales growth rates of AppLovin in this period. Among the comps, Roblox has the highest sales growth and Activision has the lowest sales growth in 2020 and 2021. Overall, we have assumed higher sales growth for AppLovin versus its peers in 2021 and 2022 and this is one of main reasons why we have applied a 10% higher valuation multiple than the comps.However, Roblox is trading at 19.2x EV/S in 2021 and we have applied a 16x EV/S multiple for AppLovin (17% lower valuation multiple than Roblox). We believe the market will attach a slightly higher valuation multiple for Roblox than AppLovin, mainly due to the former company's higher sales growth and operating margins in 2021, and its brand is more recognized worldwide.Income Statement ForecastAppLovin generated sales of $1,451.1 million and an operating loss of $62.1 million in 2020. The company's sales have nearly tripled from 2018 to 2020. The company's operating margins declined from 50.1% in 2018 to 19.5% in 2019 and -4.3% in 2020. The major reasons for the lower operating margins are due to higher cost of sales, sales & marketing, R&D, and other operating expenses as a percentage of sales.We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%. We have also assumed the company's operating margin to turn positive to 3% in 2021 from -4.3% in 2020. We estimate its operating margins to improve further to 6.8% in 2022, 10.6% in 2023, and 17.8% in 2025. We estimate AppLovin to have sales of $5.1 billion and an operating profit of $0.9 billion in 2025.Company BackgroundThecompanyoriginally started its business helping customers to improve the smartphone customer experiences for all the users. In recent years, the company has become a much bigger player in the mobile gaming segment and it also helps developers to grow their users and improve the monetization of their apps.According to IDC, the company's totalmarket opportunityis estimated to be $189 billion in 2020, growing to $283 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 10.6% in this period. This total market size of $184 billion was derived by adding the worldwide total in-app advertising revenue of $101 billion (including gaming and non-gaming in-app display, video, and other advertising, but excluding in-app search advertising) and worldwide direct game spending of $88 billion for 2020.AppLovin has invested about $1 billion in 15 acquisitions and partnerships since 2018. It owns more than 200 free-to-play mobile games from 12 studios.AppLovinlaunched a gaming business unit called Lion Studios in July 2018. It also acquired a company called Max in September 2018. Max provides in-app bidding service, which is a type of advertising where mobile publishers can sell their ad inventory in an auction method). AppLovin also owns and operates gaming studios Machine Zone, Belka Games, PeopleFun and Firecraft Studios.In February 2021, AppLovin signed an agreement to purchase Adjust for $1 billion (including $598 million in cash and $352 million in convertible securities, and an assumption of up to $40 million in debt). Adjust is a leading mobile app analytics& marketing products company in Germany. Adjust provides tools to prevent mobile advertising fraud and better measure the user base. This acquisition is expected to close in 1H 2021.In the IPO prospectus, the company mentioned that it plans to use $75 million of its Class A common shares for charitable purposes. If the company raises $1 billion in the IPO, this would represent nearly 7.5% of total amount. This is a bit unusual to have this large number of shares allocated for charitable purposes. We applaud this move by the CEO and its senior management. Adam Foroughi, the co-founder and CEO of AppLovin, previously co-founded two advertising technology companies, Lifestreet Media Inc. and Social Hour Inc.AppLovin (Key Metrics)The table provides the company's key metrics. There has been a strong increase in the monthly active payers which jumped from 0.3 million in 2018 to 1.0 million in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2020. However, the enterprise clients declined from 192 in 2018 to 172 in 2020. The company defines its enterprise clients as third-party business clients from which it has collected more than $125,000 of revenue in the trailing 12 months. Average revenue per monthly active payer increased from $11 in 2018 to $32 in 2019 and $41 in 2020.The company's main businesses comprise of its platform and apps. Its platform business mainly includes AppLovin Core Technologies and AppLovin Software. Its apps consist of over 200 free-to-play mobile games in five genres, run by 12 studios including those owned by the company and also those it partners with. The five major game genres offering by the company include casual, hypercasual, match-three, midcore, and card/casino. No single game of the company contributed more than 16% of its total revenue in 2020.Source: Company dataThe company collects revenue from two sources including business clients and consumers. In 2020, business clients accounted for 49% of total revenue and consumers represented 51% of total revenue.Business Clients:The company has a wide range of business clients including Facebook(NASDAQ:FB), Google, and a number of much smaller companies. It had 1,400 business clients at the end of 2020. Nearly 99% of the company's business revenue came from its 172 enterprise clients as of December 31, 2020. The company also had a solid customer retention rate of 118% in 2020 for its enterprise clients.AppLovin Software is a comprehensive suite of tools for developers to get their mobile apps discovered and downloaded by the right users, optimize return on marketing spend, and maximize monetization of engagement. AppLovin Software reaches an audience of over 410 million users per day. The company's software solutions provide tools for mobile app developers to expand their businesses by optimizing and automating the marketing and monetization of their apps. Since inception, the company's platform has driven more than 6 billion mobile app installs.The company's main software includes AppDiscovery and MAX. Business clients use AppDiscovery to automate, optimize, and manage their app user acquisition investments. They set marketing and user growth goals, and AppDiscovery optimizes their ad spend in an effort to achieve their return on advertising spend targets and other marketing objectives. AppDiscovery comprises the vast majority of revenue from its software.Revenue is generated from the advertisers, typically on a performance-based, cost-per-install basis, and shared with the company's advertising publishers, typically on a cost per impression model. Business clients use MAX to optimize purchases of app ad inventory.The Compass Analytics tool within MAX provides insights to manage against key performance indicators, understand the long-term value of users, and help manage profitability. Revenue from MAX is generated based on a percentage of client spend. Business clients that purchase advertising inventory from the company's Apps are able to target highly relevant users from its diverse and global portfolio of over 200 mobile games.Consumers:The company has also developed and invested in AppLovin Apps, which consist of a globally diversified portfolio of over 200 free-to-play mobile games. These Apps are accessed by nearly 32 million users every day. Consumer revenue is generated when the user of its apps makes an in-app purchase (IAP).The company's apps are mostly free-to-play mobile games and generate consumer revenue through in-app purchase of virtual items which are used to enhance gameplay and improve the probabilities of the mobile game progression opportunities.During the three months ended December 31, 2020, the company had an average of 2.1 million monthly active payers (MAPs) across its portfolio of apps. Over that period, the company had an average revenue per monthly active payer of $41.Major CompetitorsIn the mobile games and other mobile game app related businesses, the major competitors include Unity Software, Activision Blizzard, Tencent Holdings(OTCPK:TCEHY), and Zynga. In the advertising platform business, the company's major competitors include Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon (AMZN). Many of these companies are also AppLovin's partners and customers. In addition to these mega companies, the company faces competition from thousands of smaller competitors worldwide.Balance Sheet and Cash Flow AnalysisThe company has a leveraged balance sheet. Net debt increased from $0.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $1.3 billion at the end of 2020. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio also rose from 260% at the end of 2019 to 315% at the end of 2020. After KKR invested in the company in 2018, it appears that AppLovin was advised to add more leverage and expand the business more aggressively through numerous acquisitions. Through this IPO, the company's balance sheet will become much stronger.The company generated positive cash flow from operations and free cash flow in the past two years. Its cash flow from operations and free cash flow averaged $211 million and $207 million, respectively, in 2019 and 2020.ConclusionAppLovin is one of the key beneficiaries of the surging growth of game-related mobile apps. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and target price per share of $99.8, which is about 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. In recent months, some of the major game-related IPOs including Roblox and Unity Software have done really well, although their share prices have come down from their recent highs. AppLovin will likely be compared against these stocks.Despite AppLovin's decline in operating margins in 2020 due to higher operating expenses, it is more likely that investors will focus on the company's ability to continue to scale up the business and generate higher sales growth. There remains some uncertainty in terms of how quickly the company is willing to focus on the probability at the expense of lower sales growth. In addition, there are some concerns about the recent weakening sentiment on the tech-related IPOs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325509813,"gmtCreate":1615904480532,"gmtModify":1704788275526,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BUY THE DIPS!!!","listText":"BUY THE DIPS!!!","text":"BUY THE DIPS!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325509813","repostId":"1122286945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122286945","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615902195,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122286945?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122286945","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(March 16) GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday. The Reddit favorite vide","content":"<p>(March 16)&nbsp;GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday.&nbsp;The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1c0801a7e42bda21ddd62a9cd23005\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-16 21:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 16)&nbsp;GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday.&nbsp;The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1c0801a7e42bda21ddd62a9cd23005\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122286945","content_text":"(March 16) GameStop stock drops nearly 15%, after tumbling 16.8% on Monday. The Reddit favorite videogame retailer’s stock is still trading more than 10 times higher than it was at the start of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359267861,"gmtCreate":1616404702453,"gmtModify":1704793582746,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very insightful article.&nbsp;","listText":"Very insightful article.&nbsp;","text":"Very insightful article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359267861","repostId":"1163218484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\"><span>Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Value Meets Growth</b></p>\n<p>Earlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.</p>\n<p>In this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Recap</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\"><span>Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation</span></p>\n<p>Notable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.</p>\n<p>Sustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;<b>Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.</p>\n<p>In 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\"><span>Source: eMarketer.com</span></p>\n<p>While this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.</p>\n<p><b>Growth In Chinese Consumer Spending</b></p>\n<p>One major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.</p>\n<p>According to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.</p>\n<p>This trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.</p>\n<p><b>Live Streaming As A Sales Medium</b></p>\n<p>In recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\"><span>Source: WalkTheChat</span></p>\n<p>Live streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.</p>\n<p>Live-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.</p>\n<p>On Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.</p>\n<p>The growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.</p>\n<p>E-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)</p>\n<p>As the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A Familiar Retail Situation</b></p>\n<p>The current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.</p>\n<p>This makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.</p>\n<p>Live streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.</p>\n<p>Live-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.</p>\n<p>On Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.</p>\n<p>The growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.</p>\n<p>E-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)</p>\n<p>As the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A Familiar Retail Situation</b></p>\n<p>The current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.</p>\n<p>This makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation</span></p>\n<p><b>Favourable Industry Trends</b></p>\n<p>Apart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.</p>\n<p>1. A Rapidly Expanding Market</p>\n<p>According to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.</p>\n<p>2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship</p>\n<p>According to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!</p>\n<p>In the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report</span></p>\n<p>3. Increasing Consumer Spending</p>\n<p>SEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Techpinas.com</span></p>\n<p>This growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\"><span>Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report</span></p>\n<p>4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth</p>\n<p>Over the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Currently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!</p>\n<p><b>A Strong Market Position</b></p>\n<p>Currently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.</p>\n<p>As shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: Nativex</span></p>\n<p>While Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.</p>\n<p><b>Strong Growth Expected In Local Services</b></p>\n<p>An often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.</p>\n<p>Over the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>As of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.</p>\n<p>Between 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.</p>\n<p><b>Innovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth</b></p>\n<p>Another lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.</p>\n<p>New Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\"><span>Source: Author's Illustrations</span></p>\n<p>According to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.</p>\n<p>Capturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth</p>\n<p>Apart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.</p>\n<p>The cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.</p>\n<p>Cloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.</p>\n<p>For Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.</p>\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Rapid Industry Growth</b></p>\n<p>In the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.</p>\n<p>According&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.</p>\n<p>Long term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\"><span>Source: Geekwire</span></p>\n<p>Internationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.</p>\n<p><b>Catalyst For Cloud Development</b></p>\n<p>Other catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Apart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.</p>\n<p>For example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.</p>\n<p>In the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\"><span>Source: Geekwire</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.</p>\n<p><b>Alibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth</b></p>\n<p>While industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Elaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Is Becoming Profitable</b></p>\n<p>Since entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.</p>\n<p>After many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.</p>\n<p>Other Avenues Of Growth</p>\n<p>Apart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Making Strategic Investments</b></p>\n<p>Apart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.</p>\n<p>By making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: Advangent.com</span></p>\n<p>On the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!</p>\n<p>Considering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"</p>\n<p><b>Divesting Non-Core Businesses</b></p>\n<p>While Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.</p>\n<p>And this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.</p>\n<p>With no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.</p>\n<p>Therefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.</p>\n<p><b>Ant Financial</b></p>\n<p>For many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.</p>\n<p>However, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Source: Daxue Consulting</span></p>\n<p>Apart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.</p>\n<p><b>Evaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects</b></p>\n<p>After analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..</p>\n<p>Alibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.</p>\n<p>At this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.</p>\n<p><b>Current Valuation Of Alibaba</b></p>\n<p>In my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author's calculations</span></p>\n<p><b>Assumptions &amp; Estimates Used</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Price Multiples Used</b></p>\n<p>For Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Source:Analyst Prep</span></p>\n<p>With reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.</p>\n<p>Taking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.</p>\n<p>For the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.</p>\n<p>The digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>At a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.</p>\n<p>Finally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.</p>\n<p>I will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327957033,"gmtCreate":1616054375522,"gmtModify":1704790263705,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read!","listText":"Good read!","text":"Good read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327957033","repostId":"1140777123","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140777123","pubTimestamp":1616053819,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140777123?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Rally On","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140777123","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.\nThe stock seems to be f","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.</li>\n <li>The stock seems to be forming a bottom, before it starts rallying again.</li>\n <li>Investors should avoid the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain invested in the name.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir's (PLTR) shares are down 40% in value over the past two months and investment forums are rife with debates on the longevity of this price correction. Some bears are forecasting its shares to fall by another 50% in the near future but the reality may not be so bleak. Latest data actually reveals that short interest in the stock dropped by 26.7% in the last reporting cycle. This suggests that the stock is in the process of forming a bottom and it may not depreciate much, which should come across as an encouraging news for long-side Palantir investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84aaa95ba29871bd3ef8c8b179aa611e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\"><span>Source: Palantir website</span></p>\n<p><b>The dropping short interest</b></p>\n<p>For the uninitiated, short interest is essentially the aggregate number of short positions that are open and yet to be covered. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants have stacked up short positions in a particular stock, in order to profit from a potential price correction. Conversely, a sharp drop in the metric suggests that market participants have wound up their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, with limited downside potential. So, altogether, short interest helps us in gauging the Street's ever-evolving sentiment relating to any given stock.</p>\n<p>As far as Palantir is concerned, its short interest dropped by a massive 26.7% sequentially and stood at 56.43 million at the end of the last cycle. For the record, the last short interest cycle spanned from mid-February to February-end and the data was disseminated only afew daysago. To put things in perspective, the company has about 1.75 billion shares outstanding which means that a mere 3% of its entire share total stood shorted.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11e73699ec600a696859f5389bf092a5\" tg-width=\"222\" tg-height=\"662\"><span>Source: WSJ</span></p>\n<p>This is a miniscule amount of shorting activity. I say this because companies that are surrounded by bearish narratives and have uncertain future prospects, generally attract speculative short-side bets in far greater numbers. I personally view short interest to be considerably high if it amounts to 20% or more of a company's total shares outstanding. But Palantir seems to be thinly shorted by this benchmark. For all we know, its ~3% short interest figure could be comprised of hedging-related bets with the sole purpose of minimizing volatility risk.</p>\n<p>I looked at other software stocks to get a different perspective but to no avail. Out of the 47 stocks in my study, 55% saw their short interest increase while 45% of the stocks registered a decline in their short interest. This more or less even split suggests that market participants wound up their short positions in Palantir largely because of their assessment of the stock and its underlying future prospects, rather than this short covering being driven by industry trends. Besides, shorting activity in Palantir was below industry average, thereby corroborating my view that it's a thinly shorted stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4488d2e553eb79612e74a0b3aa05b72\" tg-width=\"348\" tg-height=\"823\"><span>Data from individual quote pages on wsj.com</span></p>\n<p>This begs the question - why aren't market participants shorting Palantir in the first place?</p>\n<p><b>Cautious for good reason</b></p>\n<p>For starters, Palantir's shares corrected by about 45% within February itself as a knee-jerk reaction to its Q4 results. This provided large gains for short-side market participants in a short time span, prompting them to unwind their positions and book healthy profits. So, that's one of the reasons why Palantir's short interest declined in the last cycle.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81236e9babe568b807c6641dac7fea6e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Besides, with this correction, Palantir's shares are now trading at relatively modest valuation multiples. Per YCharts, its price-to-sales multiple has dropped from a steep 40x in January to a much more reasonable 29.4x at the time of this writing, and the metric is quite close to its 52-week low of around 24x. This suggests that the stock is close to its rock-bottom prices and it might have limited downside potential going forward. So, short-side market participants may be best served by booking profits in Palantir and reallocating their capital in other, more lucrative, trade setups.</p>\n<p>Also, I explained in my previous article that Palantir is transitioning to a recurring payment model. The company used to charge its customers in advance for multi-year agreements, but it's now going to bill customers on recurring intervals, like a software-as-a-service model but with some contract cancellation clauses. We won't be covering the same points again in this article but the crux of it is that this move is likely going to boost Palantir's commercial revenues. This growth prospect makes it a risky move to short Palantir's shares for the time being, at least.</p>\n<p>Also, Palantir, historically, hasn't been too focused on its sales effort. Its&nbsp;10K reads:</p>\n<blockquote>\n …our headcount has grown from 313 full-time employees as of December 31, 2010 to 2,439 full-time employees as of December 31, 2020…\n <b>Our sales force remains relatively small, at about 3% of our total headcount.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>I thinkit's needless to say but having an understaffed sales team is bound to limit new order and sales growth. There just wouldn't be enough sales personnel to aggressively chase and convert leads.</p>\n<p>But Palantir's management seems to be now laser-focused on remedying this oversight by significantly ramping up their sales team. They disclosed last month that the company is gaining access to IBM's&nbsp;2,500 sellers, which is dramatically up from the current 30 sellers. Its management also noted in their&nbsp;Q4 earnings call&nbsp;that they \"expect to add triple digit head count to our sales function this year\".</p>\n<p>This heightened focus on revamping the sales function, and their transition to a more customer friendly payment model, is likely going to generate new deals for Palantir and boost its sales along the way. So, in my view, it's risky move to remain short on Palantir for an extended period of time.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>If bears truly had a legitimate argument against Palantir, they would have actively shorted the name in a bid to profit off of a potential price correction and we'd have seen a rapid rise in its short interest. But that did not happen and Palantir's short interest dropped significantly instead. This suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, and that the stock may have limited downside potential from the current levels. So, I would recommend Palantir's long-side investors to ignore the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain long on the name. Its intensifying sales push and reduced customer resistance with flexible payment plans, are likely going to drive its overall growth going forward. Good Luck!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Rally On</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Rally On\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 15:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414020-palantir-rally-on><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.\nThe stock seems to be forming a bottom, before it starts rallying again.\nInvestors should avoid the fear, uncertainty and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414020-palantir-rally-on\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414020-palantir-rally-on","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1140777123","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's short interest declined by almost 27% in the last cycle.\nThe stock seems to be forming a bottom, before it starts rallying again.\nInvestors should avoid the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain invested in the name.\n\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are down 40% in value over the past two months and investment forums are rife with debates on the longevity of this price correction. Some bears are forecasting its shares to fall by another 50% in the near future but the reality may not be so bleak. Latest data actually reveals that short interest in the stock dropped by 26.7% in the last reporting cycle. This suggests that the stock is in the process of forming a bottom and it may not depreciate much, which should come across as an encouraging news for long-side Palantir investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nSource: Palantir website\nThe dropping short interest\nFor the uninitiated, short interest is essentially the aggregate number of short positions that are open and yet to be covered. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants have stacked up short positions in a particular stock, in order to profit from a potential price correction. Conversely, a sharp drop in the metric suggests that market participants have wound up their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, with limited downside potential. So, altogether, short interest helps us in gauging the Street's ever-evolving sentiment relating to any given stock.\nAs far as Palantir is concerned, its short interest dropped by a massive 26.7% sequentially and stood at 56.43 million at the end of the last cycle. For the record, the last short interest cycle spanned from mid-February to February-end and the data was disseminated only afew daysago. To put things in perspective, the company has about 1.75 billion shares outstanding which means that a mere 3% of its entire share total stood shorted.\nSource: WSJ\nThis is a miniscule amount of shorting activity. I say this because companies that are surrounded by bearish narratives and have uncertain future prospects, generally attract speculative short-side bets in far greater numbers. I personally view short interest to be considerably high if it amounts to 20% or more of a company's total shares outstanding. But Palantir seems to be thinly shorted by this benchmark. For all we know, its ~3% short interest figure could be comprised of hedging-related bets with the sole purpose of minimizing volatility risk.\nI looked at other software stocks to get a different perspective but to no avail. Out of the 47 stocks in my study, 55% saw their short interest increase while 45% of the stocks registered a decline in their short interest. This more or less even split suggests that market participants wound up their short positions in Palantir largely because of their assessment of the stock and its underlying future prospects, rather than this short covering being driven by industry trends. Besides, shorting activity in Palantir was below industry average, thereby corroborating my view that it's a thinly shorted stock.\nData from individual quote pages on wsj.com\nThis begs the question - why aren't market participants shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for good reason\nFor starters, Palantir's shares corrected by about 45% within February itself as a knee-jerk reaction to its Q4 results. This provided large gains for short-side market participants in a short time span, prompting them to unwind their positions and book healthy profits. So, that's one of the reasons why Palantir's short interest declined in the last cycle.\nData by YCharts\nBesides, with this correction, Palantir's shares are now trading at relatively modest valuation multiples. Per YCharts, its price-to-sales multiple has dropped from a steep 40x in January to a much more reasonable 29.4x at the time of this writing, and the metric is quite close to its 52-week low of around 24x. This suggests that the stock is close to its rock-bottom prices and it might have limited downside potential going forward. So, short-side market participants may be best served by booking profits in Palantir and reallocating their capital in other, more lucrative, trade setups.\nAlso, I explained in my previous article that Palantir is transitioning to a recurring payment model. The company used to charge its customers in advance for multi-year agreements, but it's now going to bill customers on recurring intervals, like a software-as-a-service model but with some contract cancellation clauses. We won't be covering the same points again in this article but the crux of it is that this move is likely going to boost Palantir's commercial revenues. This growth prospect makes it a risky move to short Palantir's shares for the time being, at least.\nAlso, Palantir, historically, hasn't been too focused on its sales effort. Its 10K reads:\n\n …our headcount has grown from 313 full-time employees as of December 31, 2010 to 2,439 full-time employees as of December 31, 2020…\n Our sales force remains relatively small, at about 3% of our total headcount.\n\nI thinkit's needless to say but having an understaffed sales team is bound to limit new order and sales growth. There just wouldn't be enough sales personnel to aggressively chase and convert leads.\nBut Palantir's management seems to be now laser-focused on remedying this oversight by significantly ramping up their sales team. They disclosed last month that the company is gaining access to IBM's 2,500 sellers, which is dramatically up from the current 30 sellers. Its management also noted in their Q4 earnings call that they \"expect to add triple digit head count to our sales function this year\".\nThis heightened focus on revamping the sales function, and their transition to a more customer friendly payment model, is likely going to generate new deals for Palantir and boost its sales along the way. So, in my view, it's risky move to remain short on Palantir for an extended period of time.\nFinal Thoughts\nIf bears truly had a legitimate argument against Palantir, they would have actively shorted the name in a bid to profit off of a potential price correction and we'd have seen a rapid rise in its short interest. But that did not happen and Palantir's short interest dropped significantly instead. This suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be fairly or undervalued, and that the stock may have limited downside potential from the current levels. So, I would recommend Palantir's long-side investors to ignore the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and remain long on the name. Its intensifying sales push and reduced customer resistance with flexible payment plans, are likely going to drive its overall growth going forward. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362599365,"gmtCreate":1614647014857,"gmtModify":1704773458057,"author":{"id":"3575178815540272","authorId":"3575178815540272","name":"辣苏打","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b0fe23b17659f939167a029b10299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575178815540272","authorIdStr":"3575178815540272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay green!!","listText":"Stay green!!","text":"Stay green!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362599365","repostId":"1118801983","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118801983","pubTimestamp":1614613243,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118801983?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Climbs 2% Amid Rally Led by Small Caps: Markets Wrap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118801983","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern about the impacts of higher Treasury yields.</p><p>Companies tied to economic reopenings and faster growth led the gains on Monday amid a broad-based rally. The S&amp;P 500 was on track for its biggest advance in almost four months, while the Russell 2000 of small caps outperformed major benchmarks. Johnson &amp; Johnson jumped after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention formally recommended its Covid-19 shot. Zoom Video Communications Inc. advanced ahead of its quarterly results. Benchmark Treasuries were little changed. The dollar fell.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364c24b3bcbc710be3a811425835ebe8\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"554\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 10:38</span></p><p>After a week of intense volatility in bond markets, investors piled back into risk assets. Stocks rebounded following a two-week selloff that was triggered by concern that progress in battling the coronavirus as well as massive stimulus have left some areas of the economy at risk of possibly overheating.</p><p>“Equity investors are still looking at the rise in rates mostly as ‘a good thing’ and not yet as a threat, notwithstanding some shaking of the tree in high multiple stocks and other parts of the market last week,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “The benefits of the vaccines versus the challenge of higher rates will be the theme this year.”</p><p>Bitcoin rallied after a volatile weekend session, riding a broad resurgence in risk assets and a bullish report from Citigroup Inc. The bank’s strategists laid out a case for the digital asset to play a bigger role in the global financial system, saying the cryptocurrency could become “the currency of choice for international trade” in the years ahead.</p><p><b>There are some key events to watch this week:</b></p><p>U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book is due Wednesday.OPEC+ meeting on output Thursday.U.S. factory orders, initial jobless claims and durable goods orders are due Thursday.The February U.S. employment report on Friday will provide an update on the speed and direction of the nation’s labor market recovery.</p><p>These are some of the main moves in markets:</p><p><b>Stocks</b></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 Index surged 2% as of 10:27 a.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 1.8%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.8%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 1.8%.</p><p><b>Currencies</b></p><p>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.2%.The euro declined 0.3% to $1.2042.The Japanese yen was little changed at 106.54 per dollar.</p><p><b>Bonds</b></p><p>The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 1.41%.Germany’s 10-year yield sank eight basis points to -0.34%.Britain’s 10-year yield decreased seven basis points to 0.747%.</p><p><b>Commodities</b></p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.5% to $61.80 a barrel.Gold added 0.2% to $1,738.29 an ounce.Silver strengthened 0.7% to $26.86 per ounce.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Climbs 2% Amid Rally Led by Small Caps: Markets Wrap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 23:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yields-focus-stocks-set-open-202935160.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern about the impacts of higher Treasury yields.Companies tied to economic reopenings and faster growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yields-focus-stocks-set-open-202935160.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yields-focus-stocks-set-open-202935160.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118801983","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed as confidence returned to markets, with investors shaking off concern about the impacts of higher Treasury yields.Companies tied to economic reopenings and faster growth led the gains on Monday amid a broad-based rally. The S&P 500 was on track for its biggest advance in almost four months, while the Russell 2000 of small caps outperformed major benchmarks. Johnson & Johnson jumped after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention formally recommended its Covid-19 shot. Zoom Video Communications Inc. advanced ahead of its quarterly results. Benchmark Treasuries were little changed. The dollar fell.*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 10:38After a week of intense volatility in bond markets, investors piled back into risk assets. Stocks rebounded following a two-week selloff that was triggered by concern that progress in battling the coronavirus as well as massive stimulus have left some areas of the economy at risk of possibly overheating.“Equity investors are still looking at the rise in rates mostly as ‘a good thing’ and not yet as a threat, notwithstanding some shaking of the tree in high multiple stocks and other parts of the market last week,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “The benefits of the vaccines versus the challenge of higher rates will be the theme this year.”Bitcoin rallied after a volatile weekend session, riding a broad resurgence in risk assets and a bullish report from Citigroup Inc. The bank’s strategists laid out a case for the digital asset to play a bigger role in the global financial system, saying the cryptocurrency could become “the currency of choice for international trade” in the years ahead.There are some key events to watch this week:U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book is due Wednesday.OPEC+ meeting on output Thursday.U.S. factory orders, initial jobless claims and durable goods orders are due Thursday.The February U.S. employment report on Friday will provide an update on the speed and direction of the nation’s labor market recovery.These are some of the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index surged 2% as of 10:27 a.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged 1.8%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.8%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 1.8%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.2%.The euro declined 0.3% to $1.2042.The Japanese yen was little changed at 106.54 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 1.41%.Germany’s 10-year yield sank eight basis points to -0.34%.Britain’s 10-year yield decreased seven basis points to 0.747%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.5% to $61.80 a barrel.Gold added 0.2% to $1,738.29 an ounce.Silver strengthened 0.7% to $26.86 per ounce.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}