Teavana personal page - To The Moon

Teavana

Teavana

No personal profile

12Follow

7Followers

0Topic

0Badge

12-17

Nice article to make people sell so you can buy more Trash article

Nvidia: This Could Be The Top

11-19

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Just waiting for bitcoin to die off and everyone will be back to $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

11-18

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR

07-26

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Given the recent downturn of NVIDIA, it's crucial to analyze the factors behind the drop and assess whether the stock is indeed oversold. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Market Sentiment: The semiconductor sector has been under pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions. This broader market sentiment can impact NVIDIA's stock price. 2. Technical Analysis: Analyzing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum oscillator, can help determine if NVDA is oversold. An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition. As of the latest data, if NVDA's RSI is hovering around or below this thre

2023-02-06

Ok nice

Stock Market Predictions: Will 2023 Be a Great Year for Stocks?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575384433080359","uuid":"3575384433080359","gmtCreate":1612334718116,"gmtModify":1618209970132,"name":"Teavana","pinyin":"teavana","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":7,"headSize":12,"tweetSize":5,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.11","exceedPercentage":"93.63%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.02","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"80.79%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"80.89%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":6,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":382611615109256,"gmtCreate":1734419170247,"gmtModify":1734419780751,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575384433080359","authorIdStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article to make people sell so you can buy more&nbsp; Trash article&nbsp;","listText":"Nice article to make people sell so you can buy more&nbsp; Trash article&nbsp;","text":"Nice article to make people sell so you can buy more Trash article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382611615109256","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372487489851400,"gmtCreate":1731948540333,"gmtModify":1731949832709,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575384433080359","authorIdStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Just waiting for bitcoin to die off and everyone will be back to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Just waiting for bitcoin to die off and everyone will be back to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Just waiting for bitcoin to die off and everyone will be back to $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372487489851400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372349704036664,"gmtCreate":1731945408993,"gmtModify":1731948351916,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575384433080359","authorIdStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372349704036664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331679797313632,"gmtCreate":1721984459817,"gmtModify":1721986850742,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575384433080359","authorIdStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; Given the recent downturn of NVIDIA, it's crucial to analyze the factors behind the drop and assess whether the stock is indeed oversold. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Market Sentiment: The semiconductor sector has been under pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions. This broader market sentiment can impact NVIDIA's stock price. 2. Technical Analysis: Analyzing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum oscillator, can help determine if NVDA is oversold. An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition. As of the latest data, if NVDA's RSI is hovering around or below this thre","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; Given the recent downturn of NVIDIA, it's crucial to analyze the factors behind the drop and assess whether the stock is indeed oversold. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Market Sentiment: The semiconductor sector has been under pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions. This broader market sentiment can impact NVIDIA's stock price. 2. Technical Analysis: Analyzing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum oscillator, can help determine if NVDA is oversold. An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition. As of the latest data, if NVDA's RSI is hovering around or below this thre","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Given the recent downturn of NVIDIA, it's crucial to analyze the factors behind the drop and assess whether the stock is indeed oversold. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Market Sentiment: The semiconductor sector has been under pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions. This broader market sentiment can impact NVIDIA's stock price. 2. Technical Analysis: Analyzing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum oscillator, can help determine if NVDA is oversold. An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition. As of the latest data, if NVDA's RSI is hovering around or below this thre","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331679797313632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000340","authorId":"9000000000000340","name":"zinglee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0126a7d8aadf37410e3ec43acf556ad","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000340","authorIdStr":"9000000000000340"},"content":"Imagine the low of 760 going to 1410 post split last earnings in the 6 week time period happening again? That is almost the equivalent of this jumping to 200 post report. Anything is possible with Nvidia","text":"Imagine the low of 760 going to 1410 post split last earnings in the 6 week time period happening again? That is almost the equivalent of this jumping to 200 post report. Anything is possible with Nvidia","html":"Imagine the low of 760 going to 1410 post split last earnings in the 6 week time period happening again? That is almost the equivalent of this jumping to 200 post report. Anything is possible with Nvidia"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955426537,"gmtCreate":1675692072029,"gmtModify":1675692075679,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575384433080359","authorIdStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok nice&nbsp;","listText":"Ok nice&nbsp;","text":"Ok nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955426537","repostId":"1124648649","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124648649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675691075,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124648649?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-06 21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Market Predictions: Will 2023 Be a Great Year for Stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124648649","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"January was one of the best months for stocks in more than year.According to many infamous stock mar","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>January was one of the best months for stocks in more than year.</li><li>According to many infamous stock market signals, the groundwork is laid for a major bull run in 2023.</li><li>However, with the Federal Reserve still pushing out more rate hikes, accompanied by hawkish narratives, stocks have an upward battle ahead.</li></ul><p>Stock market predictions are flooding Wall Street as analysts and investors everywhere ponder whether January’s red-hot gains are just the beginning. Indeed, stocks enjoyed one of their strongest months ever this January, lifting hopes for many that equity markets are making a turn for the green. Just how well did stocks perform last month? And what does that mean for full-year 2023?</p><p>Well, to say that the market entered the new year with a bang would be a gross understatement. Through January, the tech-centric <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> index climbed a staggering 10.7%, representing its best January in more than 20 years. Likewise, the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> enjoyed a 6.2% jump while the industrial-heavy <b>Dow Jones</b> saw a nearly 3% uptick. Even crypto enjoyed a red-hot start to the year, with <b>Bitcoin</b>(<b><u>BTC-USD</u></b>) and <b>Ethereum</b>(<b><u>ETH-USD</u></b>) enjoying climbs of more than 30%.</p><p>Those numbers would be good ordinarily. But there are several variables at play making them especially promising bellwethers for the year to come.</p><p>First, it’s hard not to mention the elephant in the room: 2022 was one of the worst years for stocks <i>ever</i>. Nearly every major market index closed last year in the red — and some by truly depressing margins. The S&amp;P 500 slid nearly 20% and the Nasdaq sunk an eye-popping 33.1%. Even the historically steady Dow lost about 9% in 2022.</p><p>“We’ve had everything from Covid problems in China to the invasion of Ukraine. They’ve all been very serious. But for investors, it is what the Fed is doing,” said Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations for UBS. With global supply constraints, stubborn inflation, aggressive rate hikes and more, 2022 had plenty of black swans.</p><p>So, what are stock market predictions for the rest of the year?</p><p><b>Stock Market Predictions: If the January Barometer Holds True, 2023 Could Be Monumental for Stocks</b></p><p>The month of January holds something of a special place in the world of stocks. Frequently, the month serves as a predictor for the rest of the year. The saying “as goes January, so goes the year” has historically held true for stocks. In fact, the January barometer has held true about 75% of the time since 1945.</p><p>Per Yale Hirsch’s <i>Stock Trader’s Almanac</i>, the Santa Claus rally, the First Five Days Early Warning System and the January Barometer represent the “trifecta of seasonal indicators in January,” capable of predicting the next 11 months.</p><p>According to many analysts, this “trifecta” is a strong signal that stocks are headed upward this year. LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist and Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder said the following in a recent note:</p><blockquote>“The trifecta accomplished this month has historically led to some very strong returns […] The S&amp;P 500 has on average added 12.3% to a 4.6% January gain between February and December, bringing the average gain for these years to over 17%.”</blockquote><p>According to the almanac, these signals are even more meaningful following a down-year, something that 2022 more than qualifies as. Interestingly, the sectors that performed best in January also tend to top the charts in the year ahead. The top sectors last month were communications services, consumer discretionary, real estate and technology.</p><p>Despite the glowing sentiments around the January barometer, though, some analysts remain cautious about becoming too overzealous on the market. Especially in the face of so many frightening economic phenomena.</p><p><b>Fed Tightening Threatens the January Barometer</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve will likely prove the single greatest barrier to a 2023 bull run. The central bank raised the federal funds rate seven times last year and already passed a quarter-point hike just this week. As much as analysts love to meme-ify notions of a “soft landing,” expectations are still laid out for a Fed-induced recession at some point this year. The cost of lower inflation is widespread economic slowdown, the effects of which have yet to be fully priced in by the markets.</p><p>That isn’t to say the stock market is always reflective of the greater economy. But it will be hard to keep earnings propped up when people stop buying things.</p><p>Ahead of the first rate hike decision of the year earlier this week, Rhys Williams, Chief Strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management, informed <i>MarketWatch</i> just how much Fed Chair Jerome Powell controls the narrative going forward:</p><blockquote>“If [Powell] pushes back hard on this January rally, and continues with the theme that Fed is not close to done, the low growth soft-landing camp will drift back toward recession, and the big January bounce will give back some of its gains.”</blockquote><p>This is a relatively insightful conclusion, especially when you look at Powell’s undoubtedly hawkish commentary this week. In the Fed’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year, Powell maintained that it was“premature” to declare a win against inflation. He laid out rate hike expectations for the year coming:</p><blockquote>“I would say that our focus is not on short term moves but on sustained changes to broader financial conditions […] And it’s our judgment that we’re not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes.”</blockquote><p>With the recent jobs report showing almost startlingly strong unemployment, rate hikes are a nigh certainty at least for part of the year. Whether that puts a damper on the January barometer — and investors’ bullish dreams — remains to be seen.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Predictions: Will 2023 Be a Great Year for Stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Predictions: Will 2023 Be a Great Year for Stocks?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-06 21:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/02/stock-market-predictions-will-2023-be-a-great-year-for-stocks/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>January was one of the best months for stocks in more than year.According to many infamous stock market signals, the groundwork is laid for a major bull run in 2023.However, with the Federal Reserve ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/stock-market-predictions-will-2023-be-a-great-year-for-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/stock-market-predictions-will-2023-be-a-great-year-for-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124648649","content_text":"January was one of the best months for stocks in more than year.According to many infamous stock market signals, the groundwork is laid for a major bull run in 2023.However, with the Federal Reserve still pushing out more rate hikes, accompanied by hawkish narratives, stocks have an upward battle ahead.Stock market predictions are flooding Wall Street as analysts and investors everywhere ponder whether January’s red-hot gains are just the beginning. Indeed, stocks enjoyed one of their strongest months ever this January, lifting hopes for many that equity markets are making a turn for the green. Just how well did stocks perform last month? And what does that mean for full-year 2023?Well, to say that the market entered the new year with a bang would be a gross understatement. Through January, the tech-centric Nasdaq Composite index climbed a staggering 10.7%, representing its best January in more than 20 years. Likewise, the S&P 500 enjoyed a 6.2% jump while the industrial-heavy Dow Jones saw a nearly 3% uptick. Even crypto enjoyed a red-hot start to the year, with Bitcoin(BTC-USD) and Ethereum(ETH-USD) enjoying climbs of more than 30%.Those numbers would be good ordinarily. But there are several variables at play making them especially promising bellwethers for the year to come.First, it’s hard not to mention the elephant in the room: 2022 was one of the worst years for stocks ever. Nearly every major market index closed last year in the red — and some by truly depressing margins. The S&P 500 slid nearly 20% and the Nasdaq sunk an eye-popping 33.1%. Even the historically steady Dow lost about 9% in 2022.“We’ve had everything from Covid problems in China to the invasion of Ukraine. They’ve all been very serious. But for investors, it is what the Fed is doing,” said Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations for UBS. With global supply constraints, stubborn inflation, aggressive rate hikes and more, 2022 had plenty of black swans.So, what are stock market predictions for the rest of the year?Stock Market Predictions: If the January Barometer Holds True, 2023 Could Be Monumental for StocksThe month of January holds something of a special place in the world of stocks. Frequently, the month serves as a predictor for the rest of the year. The saying “as goes January, so goes the year” has historically held true for stocks. In fact, the January barometer has held true about 75% of the time since 1945.Per Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Santa Claus rally, the First Five Days Early Warning System and the January Barometer represent the “trifecta of seasonal indicators in January,” capable of predicting the next 11 months.According to many analysts, this “trifecta” is a strong signal that stocks are headed upward this year. LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist and Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder said the following in a recent note:“The trifecta accomplished this month has historically led to some very strong returns […] The S&P 500 has on average added 12.3% to a 4.6% January gain between February and December, bringing the average gain for these years to over 17%.”According to the almanac, these signals are even more meaningful following a down-year, something that 2022 more than qualifies as. Interestingly, the sectors that performed best in January also tend to top the charts in the year ahead. The top sectors last month were communications services, consumer discretionary, real estate and technology.Despite the glowing sentiments around the January barometer, though, some analysts remain cautious about becoming too overzealous on the market. Especially in the face of so many frightening economic phenomena.Fed Tightening Threatens the January BarometerThe Federal Reserve will likely prove the single greatest barrier to a 2023 bull run. The central bank raised the federal funds rate seven times last year and already passed a quarter-point hike just this week. As much as analysts love to meme-ify notions of a “soft landing,” expectations are still laid out for a Fed-induced recession at some point this year. The cost of lower inflation is widespread economic slowdown, the effects of which have yet to be fully priced in by the markets.That isn’t to say the stock market is always reflective of the greater economy. But it will be hard to keep earnings propped up when people stop buying things.Ahead of the first rate hike decision of the year earlier this week, Rhys Williams, Chief Strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management, informed MarketWatch just how much Fed Chair Jerome Powell controls the narrative going forward:“If [Powell] pushes back hard on this January rally, and continues with the theme that Fed is not close to done, the low growth soft-landing camp will drift back toward recession, and the big January bounce will give back some of its gains.”This is a relatively insightful conclusion, especially when you look at Powell’s undoubtedly hawkish commentary this week. In the Fed’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year, Powell maintained that it was“premature” to declare a win against inflation. He laid out rate hike expectations for the year coming:“I would say that our focus is not on short term moves but on sustained changes to broader financial conditions […] And it’s our judgment that we’re not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes.”With the recent jobs report showing almost startlingly strong unemployment, rate hikes are a nigh certainty at least for part of the year. Whether that puts a damper on the January barometer — and investors’ bullish dreams — remains to be seen.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":331679797313632,"gmtCreate":1721984459817,"gmtModify":1721986850742,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575384433080359","idStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; Given the recent downturn of NVIDIA, it's crucial to analyze the factors behind the drop and assess whether the stock is indeed oversold. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Market Sentiment: The semiconductor sector has been under pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions. This broader market sentiment can impact NVIDIA's stock price. 2. Technical Analysis: Analyzing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum oscillator, can help determine if NVDA is oversold. An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition. As of the latest data, if NVDA's RSI is hovering around or below this thre","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; Given the recent downturn of NVIDIA, it's crucial to analyze the factors behind the drop and assess whether the stock is indeed oversold. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Market Sentiment: The semiconductor sector has been under pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions. This broader market sentiment can impact NVIDIA's stock price. 2. Technical Analysis: Analyzing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum oscillator, can help determine if NVDA is oversold. An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition. As of the latest data, if NVDA's RSI is hovering around or below this thre","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Given the recent downturn of NVIDIA, it's crucial to analyze the factors behind the drop and assess whether the stock is indeed oversold. Here are some key points to consider: 1. Market Sentiment: The semiconductor sector has been under pressure due to various macroeconomic factors, including interest rate hikes, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions. This broader market sentiment can impact NVIDIA's stock price. 2. Technical Analysis: Analyzing the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum oscillator, can help determine if NVDA is oversold. An RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition. As of the latest data, if NVDA's RSI is hovering around or below this thre","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331679797313632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000340","authorId":"9000000000000340","name":"zinglee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0126a7d8aadf37410e3ec43acf556ad","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000340","idStr":"9000000000000340"},"content":"Imagine the low of 760 going to 1410 post split last earnings in the 6 week time period happening again? That is almost the equivalent of this jumping to 200 post report. Anything is possible with Nvidia","text":"Imagine the low of 760 going to 1410 post split last earnings in the 6 week time period happening again? That is almost the equivalent of this jumping to 200 post report. Anything is possible with Nvidia","html":"Imagine the low of 760 going to 1410 post split last earnings in the 6 week time period happening again? That is almost the equivalent of this jumping to 200 post report. Anything is possible with Nvidia"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382611615109256,"gmtCreate":1734419170247,"gmtModify":1734419780751,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575384433080359","idStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article to make people sell so you can buy more&nbsp; Trash article&nbsp;","listText":"Nice article to make people sell so you can buy more&nbsp; Trash article&nbsp;","text":"Nice article to make people sell so you can buy more Trash article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382611615109256","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372349704036664,"gmtCreate":1731945408993,"gmtModify":1731948351916,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575384433080359","idStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 $BTC acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per bitcoin. $MSTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372349704036664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955426537,"gmtCreate":1675692072029,"gmtModify":1675692075679,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575384433080359","idStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok nice&nbsp;","listText":"Ok nice&nbsp;","text":"Ok nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955426537","repostId":"1124648649","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372487489851400,"gmtCreate":1731948540333,"gmtModify":1731949832709,"author":{"id":"3575384433080359","authorId":"3575384433080359","name":"Teavana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f646f94182c801e0c7bc24d7b3f5bbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575384433080359","idStr":"3575384433080359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Just waiting for bitcoin to die off and everyone will be back to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Just waiting for bitcoin to die off and everyone will be back to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Just waiting for bitcoin to die off and everyone will be back to $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372487489851400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}