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2021-03-31

It's like the US government wants Tesla to succeed, ha.

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2021-03-22

Possible.

These 3 Stocks Are Absurdly Overvalued Right Now

2021-05-20

SEA isn't good in online reviews ...

The Smartest Investors on Wall Street Just Bought These Top Tech Stocks

2021-03-29

Wow.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is launching an ETF focused on space exploration, to begin trading Tuesday

2021-03-16

Agreeing.

Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets

2021-03-10

......

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2021-04-08

Aiyo

U.S. adds Chinese supercomputing entities to economic blacklist

2021-04-08

.

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2021-03-29

Good news for the world. ?

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2021-03-25

@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?

Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground

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isn't good in online reviews ...&nbsp;","listText":"SEA isn't good in online reviews ...&nbsp;","text":"SEA isn't good in online reviews 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20:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk says Tesla Semi will be hard to scale until next year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151024477","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(March 30) Tesla CEO Elon Musk says near-term cell supply will make it hard to scale the Semi until ","content":"<p>(March 30)&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;CEO Elon Musk&nbsp;says&nbsp;near-term cell supply will make it hard to scale the Semi until next yearwhen the limitation will be less onerous.</p><p>Yesterday, Tesla won anew orderfor electric semi trucks from MHX Leasing Funds and last week reports emerged that PepsiCo would takedelivery of 15 electric trucks by the end of the year.</p><p>Shares of Tesla are&nbsp;down 1.96%&nbsp;premarket to $599.33.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732c48224415032c93cd13a00f8916ee\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk says Tesla Semi will be hard to scale until next year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-30 20:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3677500-elon-musk-says-tesla-semi-will-be-hard-to-scale-until-next-year><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(March 30) Tesla CEO Elon Musk says near-term cell supply will make it hard to scale the Semi until next yearwhen the limitation will be less onerous.Yesterday, Tesla won anew orderfor electric semi ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3677500-elon-musk-says-tesla-semi-will-be-hard-to-scale-until-next-year\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894b094eb32ac5072648613b2fa7f36e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3677500-elon-musk-says-tesla-semi-will-be-hard-to-scale-until-next-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1151024477","content_text":"(March 30) Tesla CEO Elon Musk says near-term cell supply will make it hard to scale the Semi until next yearwhen the limitation will be less onerous.Yesterday, Tesla won anew orderfor electric semi trucks from MHX Leasing Funds and last week reports emerged that PepsiCo would takedelivery of 15 electric trucks by the end of the year.Shares of Tesla are down 1.96% premarket to $599.33.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354784896,"gmtCreate":1617201522815,"gmtModify":1704697237876,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's like the US government wants Tesla to succeed, ha.&nbsp;","listText":"It's like the US government wants Tesla to succeed, ha.&nbsp;","text":"It's like the US government wants Tesla to succeed, ha.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354784896","repostId":"1112506543","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355311126,"gmtCreate":1617028138365,"gmtModify":1704801083364,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow.&nbsp;","listText":"Wow.&nbsp;","text":"Wow.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355311126","repostId":"1135921653","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355319264,"gmtCreate":1617028039558,"gmtModify":1704801081418,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news for the world. ?","listText":"Good news for the world. ?","text":"Good news for the world. ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355319264","repostId":"1155390932","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358990381,"gmtCreate":1616647004843,"gmtModify":1704796882426,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","listText":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","text":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358990381","repostId":"1155582622","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155582622","pubTimestamp":1616426086,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155582622?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155582622","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.TSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing  the most advanced high-end technology,  the largest and still rising market share, and  15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.If considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s lev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.</li>\n <li>TSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing (1) the most advanced high-end technology, (2) the largest and still rising market share, and (3) 15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.</li>\n <li>TSMC’s future low-ground scenario includes (1) declining utilization rates due to fading WFH demand, (2) USD depreciations cutting into EPS, and (3) $28 billion capex cutting into future dividend payments.</li>\n <li>If considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level with a moderate upside for 2021.</li>\n <li>The real excitement is that TSM may reach $170 by 2022.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59820ae2f73b142d92ed1e65f1b1085d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>It is hardly an exaggeration to call Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(NYSE:TSM)(“TSMC”) the most important company in the world. At the very least, Taiwanese call TSMC their “Protecting Taiwan God Mountain.” Considering it is practically the “choke point” of the $470 billion global semiconductor industry, TSMC is also “potentially the most single point of failure in the semiconductor value chain,”said&nbsp;Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Director of the technology and geopolitics project at Berlin-based think tank,<i>Stiftung Neue Verantwortung</i>.</p>\n<p>TSMC processes the most advanced foundry technology and the largest market share (54%) in a capacity-constrained industry. Obviously, both the company and the stock have benefited significantly from the limitation of capacity expansion to meet the surging demand. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue has grown 25%, while the stock went up over 90%. It appears that their stock has looked beyond the recent financial performance.</p>\n<p>For that purpose, in this post, I described TSMC's future with a best-case and a worst-case scenario, respectively. TSMC's high-ground is that the structural growth drivers should remain intact if the company can retain the technological advances to create a wider chip platform to support the long-term growth of AI and HPC. Short-term demand should stay strong due to the global chip shortage and possible Intel outsourcing. However, TSMC should also expect the low-ground cases that are mainly from the decreasing utilization rate, weakening USD, higher capital expenditure diluting future dividend payments, the market-wide rising yield effect, and valuation correction. I also mapped out the path of TSMC future share price movements under each scenario. Given a higher likelihood for the high-ground case, TSMC may have a 20% upside in the next 12 months and a 70% upside in the next 24 months.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC’s High Ground</b></p>\n<p>The best-case scenario assumes that TSMC will retain most of the following favorable factors which have contributed to TSMC’s 2020 gain:</p>\n<p><b>Most advanced high-end technology supports TSMC’s long-term structural growth.</b>Compared amongst peers, TSMC is easily the leader in the arcane Extreme Ultra Violet (ELV) process, where it has half the world’s installed base and&nbsp;60% of its production.By 2020, TSMC has delivered&nbsp;over 1 billion 7 nm chips, while Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)is still struggling to master its 7nm process. TSMC’s 5nm chips has lower defect rates than it did at this point in its 7nm development. It is already ramping up for 3 nm production by the end of 2022 and has begun working&nbsp;on the 2 nm process(see figure below). The lead in technology is the basis for the structural growth drivers which should remain intact in the next few years, with TSMC being the key enabler of this AI/HPC revolution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068ca2e4582ecb2e1a44f88ec1093900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><b>The market share hits</b>&nbsp;<b>54%</b>&nbsp;<b>and expects to rise.</b>After reporting record revenue in 2020 based on demand for 5G smartphones, notebooks for teleworking and high-performance computers, TSMC reached a commanding 54% market share with the next competitor, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)at a distant 18%. It is expected that TSMC’s market share dominance may continue as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)remains TSMC’s major customer and will give the Taiwanese firm more business for chips made with its most advanced technology.</p>\n<p><b>Short-term demand remains robust in the logic semi space.</b>Thanks to WFH-induced global chip shortage<b>,</b>full utilization nearly across all process nodes (especially tight at 7nm, 40nm and 8\") with continued 28nm utilization improvement. The better-than-expected crypto miner ASIC demand helping to fill the gap of 5nm capacity slack due to iPhone order cuts and Apple seasonality.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC should see more corroboration</b>&nbsp;of growth momentum in HPC, potential Intel CPU orders at 3nm, faster growth in&nbsp;AMD&nbsp;CPU, and Nvidia’s(NASDAQ:NVDA)AI accelerators. Intel outsourcing, if executed, is estimated to add 1% to TSMC’s revenue (Mizuho).</p>\n<p><b>The $28 billion capex spending</b>&nbsp;reflects management's confidence about advanced node chips' long-term demand strength and possible 15% compound annual revenue growth in the next 2-3 years.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC’s Low Ground</b></p>\n<p>The low-ground case would include several negative factors on the horizon that the high-ground case does not consider:</p>\n<p><b>Decreasing utilization rate results from fading WFH demand.</b>TSMC has operated at full capacity for a while; however, weaker-than-expected demand and macro conditions may lead to downside risk for utilization rate forecasts.It is estimated&nbsp;that every 1% decline in the utilization rate could result in 4%-5% downside to the 2021-2022 EPS estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Medium-term inventory correction is inevitable.</b>Inventory correction from a fading WFH demand is expected in 2H21. Logic semi inventory restocking has lasted for 6-7 quarters by 1Q21. While near-term demand indicators remain solid in the logic semi space, it is likely that there will be some inventory correction after 2022, as suggested by the analyst forecasts (Figure 2). However, JP Morgan predicts that end demand drivers for TSMC are likely to become more structural rather than cyclical in the future, with revenues from HPC likely to crossover those from smartphones by 2023. Consequently, TSMC could fare better during logic semi down cycle and recover faster from the trough vs other tier-2 Foundries (JP Morgan).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ebf5f3771333335e3ec84dda7798fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"></p>\n<p><b>Average selling price (ASP) may go down.</b>TSMC has benefited from a 6% increase in ASP in 2021/22. However, the advantage has been reduced due to pricing competition from Samsung.Mizuho&nbsp;estimated that every 1% fall in ASP could result in 2%-3% downside for our EPS estimates for 2021-22.</p>\n<p><b>Weakening USD (Strengthening TWD) cuts into EPS.</b>Approximately 99% of TSMC’s sales are denominated in US dollars, but only 15% of its Cost of Goods Sold is in US dollars. Thus, TWD appreciation impacts the company’s gross margin. Based on&nbsp;Mizuho’s estimate,every 1% TWD appreciation could lead to 1%-2% downside to EPS estimates for 2021-22.</p>\n<p><b>$28 billion Capex may dilute dividend payment</b>. Taiwan Semiconductor's 1Q guidance of 23% year-over-year revenue growth indicates stronger sales of computing processors and automotive chips may offset the seasonality of smartphone chips. The $28 billion full-year capital budget&nbsp;may cut into&nbsp;the company's free cash flow and lead to greater volatility in the dividend.</p>\n<p><b>From Future Financials to Future Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>After the high-ground and low-ground scenarios are developed, I will explain how to convert forecast financials into future stock prices: If a stock is priced based on its forecast financials at each point in time, I should first find those financial metrics which have traditionally affected the stock prices. A historical relationship between the historical stock prices and these financial metrics is first identified (multiple regression method). Then, the current forecast of these financial metrics at different future time point can be used to generate the future stock price targets. Historically, TSMC's stock prices are known to react to consensus forecasts of revenue, EPS, gross margin, capital expenditure, and free cash flow or dividend, e.g., the relationships in Figures 1A-1B.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8598e14f696255c7faa92760ef906f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed9aa585df33e69929a8a843f28e00f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\"></p>\n<p>Keep in mind that although I used historical data to estimate a historical relationship, it is still a forward-looking process. This is because, at any point in time in history, TSMC's price is estimated by the forward estimates of the five financial metrics at that time. The only assumption I made is that investors used the same (forward-looking) valuation structure to price stocks consistently. Using the relationship and the analysts' next 10-quarter estimates of the five metrics, I was able to compute the future stock prices corresponding to those forward financials.</p>\n<p><b>High-Ground vs. Low-Ground Share Prices</b></p>\n<p>For high-ground scenario, I used the normal relationship which assumes TSMC stock price is determined by forecast quarterly revenue, EPS, capital expenditure, and dividend estimates. For low-ground scenario, I included additional negative factors of expected 10-year Treasury yield up moves (from futures contracts), the future USD depreciation (from futures contracts), the forecast higher inventory, and forecast distant revenue growth rates (for lower utilization rates).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3a771ad144f1a71a405203b9b19b58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"></p>\n<p>In Figure 2, I showed the high-ground prices in red, the low-ground prices in green and the actual TSMC price in black. Of course, after Q1 2021, only predicted prices are available. If you can go along with my approach, Figure 3 becomes quite telling. First of all, up till today, both predicted prices seem to map the actual stock price quite closely, the tight relationship implicitly validate the power of the models. It is also expected both scenarios behaved very similarly because all the additional (negative) factors included in the low-ground case are more relevant in the next few quarters. This is why the high-ground price explains the realty better until today, as both actual and high-ground prices are around $118 at Q1 2021, while low-ground price is at $81.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ff924f4d6ece1e451e1ca16ddc2070\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"></p>\n<p>It is more important to see how the future share price plays out under each scenario. Table 1 indicates that the high-ground prices consistently trade at a $40 premium over the low-ground price and eventually to over $80 premium by Q4 2022. Of course, you can assign your own estimates on the chance that each scenario will happen. Due to the short-term nature of all the negative factors, my own guess is biased to the high-ground, fundamental picture of TSMC. Using a 30% low-ground/70% high-ground guess, the resulting TSMC future share price may be relatively flat in 2021 but will take off to $170 by the end of 2022 (Table 1).</p>\n<p><b>Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>Being the largest player in a critically important space, TSMC is at the choke point that gives the company an advantage to benefit from the rigidity of capacity expansion to meet demand surge (high ground). It appears that TSMC share price has already priced in this advantage. But like all other tech stocks, TSM has not priced in the rising yields, fading WFH demand, high valuation, and future competitors’ challenges (low ground).</p>\n<p>If considering both the high ground and low ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level. But share price is expected to have moderate upside for 2021. The real excitement will be in 2022 when the negative low-ground factors are out of the system. TSM may reach $170 by 2022.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155582622","content_text":"Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.\nTSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing (1) the most advanced high-end technology, (2) the largest and still rising market share, and (3) 15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.\nTSMC’s future low-ground scenario includes (1) declining utilization rates due to fading WFH demand, (2) USD depreciations cutting into EPS, and (3) $28 billion capex cutting into future dividend payments.\nIf considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level with a moderate upside for 2021.\nThe real excitement is that TSM may reach $170 by 2022.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt is hardly an exaggeration to call Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(NYSE:TSM)(“TSMC”) the most important company in the world. At the very least, Taiwanese call TSMC their “Protecting Taiwan God Mountain.” Considering it is practically the “choke point” of the $470 billion global semiconductor industry, TSMC is also “potentially the most single point of failure in the semiconductor value chain,”said Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Director of the technology and geopolitics project at Berlin-based think tank,Stiftung Neue Verantwortung.\nTSMC processes the most advanced foundry technology and the largest market share (54%) in a capacity-constrained industry. Obviously, both the company and the stock have benefited significantly from the limitation of capacity expansion to meet the surging demand. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue has grown 25%, while the stock went up over 90%. It appears that their stock has looked beyond the recent financial performance.\nFor that purpose, in this post, I described TSMC's future with a best-case and a worst-case scenario, respectively. TSMC's high-ground is that the structural growth drivers should remain intact if the company can retain the technological advances to create a wider chip platform to support the long-term growth of AI and HPC. Short-term demand should stay strong due to the global chip shortage and possible Intel outsourcing. However, TSMC should also expect the low-ground cases that are mainly from the decreasing utilization rate, weakening USD, higher capital expenditure diluting future dividend payments, the market-wide rising yield effect, and valuation correction. I also mapped out the path of TSMC future share price movements under each scenario. Given a higher likelihood for the high-ground case, TSMC may have a 20% upside in the next 12 months and a 70% upside in the next 24 months.\nTSMC’s High Ground\nThe best-case scenario assumes that TSMC will retain most of the following favorable factors which have contributed to TSMC’s 2020 gain:\nMost advanced high-end technology supports TSMC’s long-term structural growth.Compared amongst peers, TSMC is easily the leader in the arcane Extreme Ultra Violet (ELV) process, where it has half the world’s installed base and 60% of its production.By 2020, TSMC has delivered over 1 billion 7 nm chips, while Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)is still struggling to master its 7nm process. TSMC’s 5nm chips has lower defect rates than it did at this point in its 7nm development. It is already ramping up for 3 nm production by the end of 2022 and has begun working on the 2 nm process(see figure below). The lead in technology is the basis for the structural growth drivers which should remain intact in the next few years, with TSMC being the key enabler of this AI/HPC revolution.\n\nThe market share hits 54% and expects to rise.After reporting record revenue in 2020 based on demand for 5G smartphones, notebooks for teleworking and high-performance computers, TSMC reached a commanding 54% market share with the next competitor, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)at a distant 18%. It is expected that TSMC’s market share dominance may continue as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)remains TSMC’s major customer and will give the Taiwanese firm more business for chips made with its most advanced technology.\nShort-term demand remains robust in the logic semi space.Thanks to WFH-induced global chip shortage,full utilization nearly across all process nodes (especially tight at 7nm, 40nm and 8\") with continued 28nm utilization improvement. The better-than-expected crypto miner ASIC demand helping to fill the gap of 5nm capacity slack due to iPhone order cuts and Apple seasonality.\nTSMC should see more corroboration of growth momentum in HPC, potential Intel CPU orders at 3nm, faster growth in AMD CPU, and Nvidia’s(NASDAQ:NVDA)AI accelerators. Intel outsourcing, if executed, is estimated to add 1% to TSMC’s revenue (Mizuho).\nThe $28 billion capex spending reflects management's confidence about advanced node chips' long-term demand strength and possible 15% compound annual revenue growth in the next 2-3 years.\nTSMC’s Low Ground\nThe low-ground case would include several negative factors on the horizon that the high-ground case does not consider:\nDecreasing utilization rate results from fading WFH demand.TSMC has operated at full capacity for a while; however, weaker-than-expected demand and macro conditions may lead to downside risk for utilization rate forecasts.It is estimated that every 1% decline in the utilization rate could result in 4%-5% downside to the 2021-2022 EPS estimates.\nMedium-term inventory correction is inevitable.Inventory correction from a fading WFH demand is expected in 2H21. Logic semi inventory restocking has lasted for 6-7 quarters by 1Q21. While near-term demand indicators remain solid in the logic semi space, it is likely that there will be some inventory correction after 2022, as suggested by the analyst forecasts (Figure 2). However, JP Morgan predicts that end demand drivers for TSMC are likely to become more structural rather than cyclical in the future, with revenues from HPC likely to crossover those from smartphones by 2023. Consequently, TSMC could fare better during logic semi down cycle and recover faster from the trough vs other tier-2 Foundries (JP Morgan).\n\nAverage selling price (ASP) may go down.TSMC has benefited from a 6% increase in ASP in 2021/22. However, the advantage has been reduced due to pricing competition from Samsung.Mizuho estimated that every 1% fall in ASP could result in 2%-3% downside for our EPS estimates for 2021-22.\nWeakening USD (Strengthening TWD) cuts into EPS.Approximately 99% of TSMC’s sales are denominated in US dollars, but only 15% of its Cost of Goods Sold is in US dollars. Thus, TWD appreciation impacts the company’s gross margin. Based on Mizuho’s estimate,every 1% TWD appreciation could lead to 1%-2% downside to EPS estimates for 2021-22.\n$28 billion Capex may dilute dividend payment. Taiwan Semiconductor's 1Q guidance of 23% year-over-year revenue growth indicates stronger sales of computing processors and automotive chips may offset the seasonality of smartphone chips. The $28 billion full-year capital budget may cut into the company's free cash flow and lead to greater volatility in the dividend.\nFrom Future Financials to Future Stock Prices\nAfter the high-ground and low-ground scenarios are developed, I will explain how to convert forecast financials into future stock prices: If a stock is priced based on its forecast financials at each point in time, I should first find those financial metrics which have traditionally affected the stock prices. A historical relationship between the historical stock prices and these financial metrics is first identified (multiple regression method). Then, the current forecast of these financial metrics at different future time point can be used to generate the future stock price targets. Historically, TSMC's stock prices are known to react to consensus forecasts of revenue, EPS, gross margin, capital expenditure, and free cash flow or dividend, e.g., the relationships in Figures 1A-1B.\n\nKeep in mind that although I used historical data to estimate a historical relationship, it is still a forward-looking process. This is because, at any point in time in history, TSMC's price is estimated by the forward estimates of the five financial metrics at that time. The only assumption I made is that investors used the same (forward-looking) valuation structure to price stocks consistently. Using the relationship and the analysts' next 10-quarter estimates of the five metrics, I was able to compute the future stock prices corresponding to those forward financials.\nHigh-Ground vs. Low-Ground Share Prices\nFor high-ground scenario, I used the normal relationship which assumes TSMC stock price is determined by forecast quarterly revenue, EPS, capital expenditure, and dividend estimates. For low-ground scenario, I included additional negative factors of expected 10-year Treasury yield up moves (from futures contracts), the future USD depreciation (from futures contracts), the forecast higher inventory, and forecast distant revenue growth rates (for lower utilization rates).\n\nIn Figure 2, I showed the high-ground prices in red, the low-ground prices in green and the actual TSMC price in black. Of course, after Q1 2021, only predicted prices are available. If you can go along with my approach, Figure 3 becomes quite telling. First of all, up till today, both predicted prices seem to map the actual stock price quite closely, the tight relationship implicitly validate the power of the models. It is also expected both scenarios behaved very similarly because all the additional (negative) factors included in the low-ground case are more relevant in the next few quarters. This is why the high-ground price explains the realty better until today, as both actual and high-ground prices are around $118 at Q1 2021, while low-ground price is at $81.\n\nIt is more important to see how the future share price plays out under each scenario. Table 1 indicates that the high-ground prices consistently trade at a $40 premium over the low-ground price and eventually to over $80 premium by Q4 2022. Of course, you can assign your own estimates on the chance that each scenario will happen. Due to the short-term nature of all the negative factors, my own guess is biased to the high-ground, fundamental picture of TSMC. Using a 30% low-ground/70% high-ground guess, the resulting TSMC future share price may be relatively flat in 2021 but will take off to $170 by the end of 2022 (Table 1).\nTakeaways\nBeing the largest player in a critically important space, TSMC is at the choke point that gives the company an advantage to benefit from the rigidity of capacity expansion to meet demand surge (high ground). It appears that TSMC share price has already priced in this advantage. But like all other tech stocks, TSM has not priced in the rising yields, fading WFH demand, high valuation, and future competitors’ challenges (low ground).\nIf considering both the high ground and low ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level. But share price is expected to have moderate upside for 2021. The real excitement will be in 2022 when the negative low-ground factors are out of the system. TSM may reach $170 by 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359520501,"gmtCreate":1616414491803,"gmtModify":1704793721686,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Possible.&nbsp;","listText":"Possible.&nbsp;","text":"Possible.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359520501","repostId":"2121127803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325243001,"gmtCreate":1615903671603,"gmtModify":1704788251078,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agreeing.&nbsp;","listText":"Agreeing.&nbsp;","text":"Agreeing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325243001","repostId":"1105988154","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323595625,"gmtCreate":1615352316467,"gmtModify":1704781553381,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"......&nbsp;","listText":"......&nbsp;","text":"......","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323595625","repostId":"1160680775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160680775","pubTimestamp":1615348263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160680775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 2021 stock market looks an awful lot like 2000. That's bad news for Big Tech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160680775","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)The recent pullback in tech stocks followed a spectacular surge at the start ","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)The recent pullback in tech stocks followed a spectacular surge at the start of the year. That should have longtime market observers worried about the similarities between now and the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000.</p>\n<p>For all those Millennial Robinhood traders who were just kids 20 years ago and are relative newbies to the market, the recent volatility should serve as a lesson. For all the times that people say that \"this time is different\" that's usually a telltale sign that it actually isn't.</p>\n<p>The rise of meme stocks like GameStop (GME), the flurry of initial public offerings and special purpose acquisition company mergers as well as the stunning runs in Tesla (TSLA) and bitcoin (XBT) are nothing more than another case of the forces of market speculation running amok.</p>\n<p>Investors are buying companies with significant challenges and ignoring the weak fundamentals. GameStop isn't the only \"meme\" stock out there. Movie theater chain AMC (AMC), clothing retailer Express (EXPR) and headphone maker Koss (KOSS) have been soaring.</p>\n<p>And all the talk about \"stonks\" and cryptocurrencies on Reddit and in TikTok videos isn't really that much different than people chattering about how high they thought Qualcomm (QCOM) and Cisco (CSCO) were going to go in the late 1990s on Raging Bull and Yahoo Finance message boards.</p>\n<p>There are numerous other echoes to the tech craziness of the late 1990s.</p>\n<p><b>Investors partying too much like 1999?</b></p>\n<p>Blank check SPAC mergers may not have been popular more than twenty years ago. But there was another hot financial trend at that time that was also a sign of market froth -- companies spinning off their online divisions or setting up so-called tracking stocks for them.</p>\n<p>Barnes and Noble, for example, trying to fight off competition from a still relatively new Amazon (AMZN), spun off its Barnesandnoble.com unit into a separately traded company in 1999. It was eventually folded back into the parent company.</p>\n<p>Tracking stocks were even more ridiculous than dot-com spinoffs.</p>\n<p>With a tracking stock, a company would sell shares of a business unit that merely tracked the performance of the division. But investors who owned the stock didn't have the right to vote on company matters like investors in other public companies did.</p>\n<p>Disney (DIS) used to have a tracking stock named Go.com for its online operations. NBC had an internet tracking stock as well. NBCi launched in 1999 -- back when GE (GE) owned NBC. Comcast (CMCSA) is now the parent of NBC.</p>\n<p>CNN owner AT&amp;T (T) had a tracking stock for its new (at the time) wireless unit in the early 2000s. So did Sprint (now owned by T-Mobile (TMUS)) for its PCS wireless division.</p>\n<p>None of these tracking stocks exist anymore.</p>\n<p><b>IPO and SPAC bubble and concerns about pricey valuations</b></p>\n<p>There were also plenty of unprofitable companies rushing to go public, despite having little in the way of revenue let alone profits.</p>\n<p>The spectacular collapse of Pets.com stock after its IPO in February 2000 -- just before the Nasdaq peaked -- is still the poster child of wretched market excess.</p>\n<p>The good news for investors today is that many of the big unicorns going public via IPOs, SPACs or directly listing their shares on exchanges are not Pets.com 2.0. Airbnb, Palantir, DoorDash and many other recent stock debuts are industry leaders.</p>\n<p>Still, the valuations for many of these stocks are certifiably insane considering that many of the companies are still not profitable -- even though their revenues are substantial and growing rapidly.</p>\n<p>The prices for top tech stocks, even the FAANGs, Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla that currently dominate the S&amp;P 500, might be unjustifiably high as well.</p>\n<p>According to data from FactSet, the S&amp;P 500 is currently trading at more than 21 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months. That's above the five-year average of just under 18 and the 10-year average of nearly 16.</p>\n<p>It's also approaching the peak March 2000 levels of 24 times earnings estimates. In other words, the market is priced for perfection.</p>\n<p>That's problematic. If (or when) the most bubbilicious stocks finally start to pull back, the sell-off can last a long time and the damage could be severe.</p>\n<p>After all, when the Nasdaq first topped the 5,000 level in March 2000, it did so after surging past the 3,000 and 4,000 levels just a few months earlier. It was a mania. But once the dot-com bubble burst, the Nasdaq did not climb back above 5,000 again until March...2015.</p>\n<p>So last year's brief bear market pullback following the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak in March could be just a small taste of what's to come for tech and momentum stocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 2021 stock market looks an awful lot like 2000. That's bad news for Big Tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 2021 stock market looks an awful lot like 2000. That's bad news for Big Tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/investing/stocks-tech-spacs-ipos-bubble/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)The recent pullback in tech stocks followed a spectacular surge at the start of the year. That should have longtime market observers worried about the similarities between now ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/investing/stocks-tech-spacs-ipos-bubble/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/investing/stocks-tech-spacs-ipos-bubble/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160680775","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)The recent pullback in tech stocks followed a spectacular surge at the start of the year. That should have longtime market observers worried about the similarities between now and the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000.\nFor all those Millennial Robinhood traders who were just kids 20 years ago and are relative newbies to the market, the recent volatility should serve as a lesson. For all the times that people say that \"this time is different\" that's usually a telltale sign that it actually isn't.\nThe rise of meme stocks like GameStop (GME), the flurry of initial public offerings and special purpose acquisition company mergers as well as the stunning runs in Tesla (TSLA) and bitcoin (XBT) are nothing more than another case of the forces of market speculation running amok.\nInvestors are buying companies with significant challenges and ignoring the weak fundamentals. GameStop isn't the only \"meme\" stock out there. Movie theater chain AMC (AMC), clothing retailer Express (EXPR) and headphone maker Koss (KOSS) have been soaring.\nAnd all the talk about \"stonks\" and cryptocurrencies on Reddit and in TikTok videos isn't really that much different than people chattering about how high they thought Qualcomm (QCOM) and Cisco (CSCO) were going to go in the late 1990s on Raging Bull and Yahoo Finance message boards.\nThere are numerous other echoes to the tech craziness of the late 1990s.\nInvestors partying too much like 1999?\nBlank check SPAC mergers may not have been popular more than twenty years ago. But there was another hot financial trend at that time that was also a sign of market froth -- companies spinning off their online divisions or setting up so-called tracking stocks for them.\nBarnes and Noble, for example, trying to fight off competition from a still relatively new Amazon (AMZN), spun off its Barnesandnoble.com unit into a separately traded company in 1999. It was eventually folded back into the parent company.\nTracking stocks were even more ridiculous than dot-com spinoffs.\nWith a tracking stock, a company would sell shares of a business unit that merely tracked the performance of the division. But investors who owned the stock didn't have the right to vote on company matters like investors in other public companies did.\nDisney (DIS) used to have a tracking stock named Go.com for its online operations. NBC had an internet tracking stock as well. NBCi launched in 1999 -- back when GE (GE) owned NBC. Comcast (CMCSA) is now the parent of NBC.\nCNN owner AT&T (T) had a tracking stock for its new (at the time) wireless unit in the early 2000s. So did Sprint (now owned by T-Mobile (TMUS)) for its PCS wireless division.\nNone of these tracking stocks exist anymore.\nIPO and SPAC bubble and concerns about pricey valuations\nThere were also plenty of unprofitable companies rushing to go public, despite having little in the way of revenue let alone profits.\nThe spectacular collapse of Pets.com stock after its IPO in February 2000 -- just before the Nasdaq peaked -- is still the poster child of wretched market excess.\nThe good news for investors today is that many of the big unicorns going public via IPOs, SPACs or directly listing their shares on exchanges are not Pets.com 2.0. Airbnb, Palantir, DoorDash and many other recent stock debuts are industry leaders.\nStill, the valuations for many of these stocks are certifiably insane considering that many of the companies are still not profitable -- even though their revenues are substantial and growing rapidly.\nThe prices for top tech stocks, even the FAANGs, Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla that currently dominate the S&P 500, might be unjustifiably high as well.\nAccording to data from FactSet, the S&P 500 is currently trading at more than 21 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months. That's above the five-year average of just under 18 and the 10-year average of nearly 16.\nIt's also approaching the peak March 2000 levels of 24 times earnings estimates. In other words, the market is priced for perfection.\nThat's problematic. If (or when) the most bubbilicious stocks finally start to pull back, the sell-off can last a long time and the damage could be severe.\nAfter all, when the Nasdaq first topped the 5,000 level in March 2000, it did so after surging past the 3,000 and 4,000 levels just a few months earlier. It was a mania. But once the dot-com bubble burst, the Nasdaq did not climb back above 5,000 again until March...2015.\nSo last year's brief bear market pullback following the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak in March could be just a small taste of what's to come for tech and momentum stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":354784896,"gmtCreate":1617201522815,"gmtModify":1704697237876,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's like the US government wants Tesla to succeed, ha.&nbsp;","listText":"It's like the US government wants Tesla to succeed, ha.&nbsp;","text":"It's like the US government wants Tesla to succeed, ha.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354784896","repostId":"1112506543","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359520501,"gmtCreate":1616414491803,"gmtModify":1704793721686,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Possible.&nbsp;","listText":"Possible.&nbsp;","text":"Possible.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359520501","repostId":"2121127803","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121127803","pubTimestamp":1616413652,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121127803?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 19:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Stocks Are Absurdly Overvalued Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121127803","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Sometimes the sticker price on a stock should give investors pause.","content":"<p>The stock market is near all-time highs, and there have been some incredible performances by some of the most high-profile growth stocks available today. But the market's run could leave some companies way overvalued when compared to their underlying fundamentals.</p>\n<p>Trying to determine which stocks are overvalued&nbsp;can mean going against the grain of investor sentiment, but understanding the case against a stock can be valuable as well. With that in mind, here's why I think <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA), <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM), and<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLNK\">Blink Charging</a></b> (NASDAQ:BLNK) are all overvalued today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c786ba4a8acec8ee655697616cbd1a8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"504\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>A skeptic's view of Tesla</h2>\n<p>There's no questioning how disruptive Tesla has been to the auto industry. The company has almost single-handedly forced nearly every automaker to begin to transition their fleets to electric powertrains years ahead of when it might otherwise have happened. But that doesn't mean Tesla's stock isn't incredibly expensive.</p>\n<p>First, we need to acknowledge that despite being profitable as a whole, Tesla generates more profit from selling regulatory credits than it does from building cars. In 2020, the company reported net income of $721 million, but without regulatory credits, it would have lost $859 million. Put another way, the $1.58 billion in revenue from regulatory credits means Tesla generated $2,635 in regulatory credits from every vehicle delivered last year. I point this out because <b>Volkswagen</b> (OTC:VWAGY), <b>General Motors</b> (NYSE:GM), Rivian, and many others are increasing their supply of electric vehicles (EVs) over the next few years, which means the demand for regulatory credits will likely go down just as the supply of credits is going up. What you have left is Tesla generating less revenue per vehicle at lower margins -- and overall, a company that's losing money.</p>\n<p>Tesla also has a challenge in autonomous driving coming its way. The company has has begun selling its \"full self driving\" service for $10,000 for new vehicles, but that could be a short-lived revenue stream. Companies like Cruise (majority owned by GM) and Waymo (owned by <b>Alphabet</b>) already have fully autonomous cars on the road today. In fact, according to Navigant Research, Tesla is behind almost every major automaker and technology company in autonomous driving technology. It's just that companies like Waymo, Cruise, <b>Ford</b> (NYSE:F), <b>Baidu</b>, VW, Zoox (owned by <b>Amazon</b>), and others haven't released products to the broader public as Tesla has. When they do, Tesla's autonomy technology may appear well behind the pack.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c5c1964033a4a6bfe620cf615aa5fd9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"551\"><span>TSLA PS Ratio data by YCharts.</span></p>\n<p>By any measure, Tesla's stock is extremely highly valued versus competitors' shares. When you add in the fact that Tesla is going to face dozens of new competitors in the EV market in the next few years, along with new autonomous driving options, this is a stock that I think is too highly valued right now. Of course, Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have proved doubters wrong before.</p>\n<h2>Is Zoom really the future?</h2>\n<p>Zoom was the surprise winner of the pandemic after tens of millions of people suddenly needed to learn how to work remotely. Zoom filled that market need and the company's revenue and share price have both gone through the roof. But has Zoom's stock gone too far, too fast?</p>\n<p>Judging the videoconferencing specialist by traditional valuation metrics is tough right now, because a price-to-sales ratio of 38 seems high, as does a price-to-earnings ratio of 150, but a 300%-plus growth rate is almost unfathomable for a company like Zoom.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ce5d334cf7ad60f6c990fd49f329e5\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"480\"><span>ZM PS Ratio data by YCharts.</span></p>\n<p>The current growth numbers are mind-bending, but what I think we need to start considering now is whether revenue actually goes <i>backward</i> late in 2021. Companies that have been on Zoom for a year now are starting to make plans to go back into the physical office, making Zoom less of a necessity and more of a luxury for millions of users. The people who I know that have gone remote and work with other people in a large office setting spend 6-8 hours every single day on Zoom, and that number is likely to drop 80% to 90% when they go back to the office. That data is anecdotal, but a post-pandemic world likely means far fewer virtual meetings, and that could be bad for Zoom's top line and its highly valued stock.</p>\n<h2>Don't bet on an EV charging giant emerging</h2>\n<p>One of the craziest stocks on the market today is Blink Charging. The company sells EV chargers and owns a network of charging stations as well. That could be a growth business in the long term, but is it worth 236 times revenue? I don't think so.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c4e8b5365a7a6355cfd89a7d9c51e33\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"452\"><span>BLNK Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</span></p>\n<p>There are multiple challenges Blink Charging will have to surmount to live up to its current valuation.&nbsp;One is that the charging business is effectively a commodity business today. The other is that there's a lot of competition from other charging networks and even at-home charging. Long-term, I don't see how <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> network differentiates itself from another.</p>\n<p>I don't question that EV sales are growing rapidly and more chargers will be needed. But with just $4.5 million in sales last year, I don't think this is a company that should have a $1.6 billion market cap today.</p>\n<h2>A high price for high growth</h2>\n<p>What each of these companies has in common is high growth. But sometimes the premium being paid for growth can be too high, and that's what I'm seeing here. Tesla, Zoom, and Blink Charging could all be great businesses long-term, I just think they're too richly valued at their current stock prices.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Stocks Are Absurdly Overvalued Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Stocks Are Absurdly Overvalued Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 19:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/22/these-3-stocks-are-absurdly-overvalued-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market is near all-time highs, and there have been some incredible performances by some of the most high-profile growth stocks available today. But the market's run could leave some ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/22/these-3-stocks-are-absurdly-overvalued-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","BLNK":"Blink Charging","ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/22/these-3-stocks-are-absurdly-overvalued-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121127803","content_text":"The stock market is near all-time highs, and there have been some incredible performances by some of the most high-profile growth stocks available today. But the market's run could leave some companies way overvalued when compared to their underlying fundamentals.\nTrying to determine which stocks are overvalued can mean going against the grain of investor sentiment, but understanding the case against a stock can be valuable as well. With that in mind, here's why I think Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), and Blink Charging (NASDAQ:BLNK) are all overvalued today.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nA skeptic's view of Tesla\nThere's no questioning how disruptive Tesla has been to the auto industry. The company has almost single-handedly forced nearly every automaker to begin to transition their fleets to electric powertrains years ahead of when it might otherwise have happened. But that doesn't mean Tesla's stock isn't incredibly expensive.\nFirst, we need to acknowledge that despite being profitable as a whole, Tesla generates more profit from selling regulatory credits than it does from building cars. In 2020, the company reported net income of $721 million, but without regulatory credits, it would have lost $859 million. Put another way, the $1.58 billion in revenue from regulatory credits means Tesla generated $2,635 in regulatory credits from every vehicle delivered last year. I point this out because Volkswagen (OTC:VWAGY), General Motors (NYSE:GM), Rivian, and many others are increasing their supply of electric vehicles (EVs) over the next few years, which means the demand for regulatory credits will likely go down just as the supply of credits is going up. What you have left is Tesla generating less revenue per vehicle at lower margins -- and overall, a company that's losing money.\nTesla also has a challenge in autonomous driving coming its way. The company has has begun selling its \"full self driving\" service for $10,000 for new vehicles, but that could be a short-lived revenue stream. Companies like Cruise (majority owned by GM) and Waymo (owned by Alphabet) already have fully autonomous cars on the road today. In fact, according to Navigant Research, Tesla is behind almost every major automaker and technology company in autonomous driving technology. It's just that companies like Waymo, Cruise, Ford (NYSE:F), Baidu, VW, Zoox (owned by Amazon), and others haven't released products to the broader public as Tesla has. When they do, Tesla's autonomy technology may appear well behind the pack.\nTSLA PS Ratio data by YCharts.\nBy any measure, Tesla's stock is extremely highly valued versus competitors' shares. When you add in the fact that Tesla is going to face dozens of new competitors in the EV market in the next few years, along with new autonomous driving options, this is a stock that I think is too highly valued right now. Of course, Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have proved doubters wrong before.\nIs Zoom really the future?\nZoom was the surprise winner of the pandemic after tens of millions of people suddenly needed to learn how to work remotely. Zoom filled that market need and the company's revenue and share price have both gone through the roof. But has Zoom's stock gone too far, too fast?\nJudging the videoconferencing specialist by traditional valuation metrics is tough right now, because a price-to-sales ratio of 38 seems high, as does a price-to-earnings ratio of 150, but a 300%-plus growth rate is almost unfathomable for a company like Zoom.\nZM PS Ratio data by YCharts.\nThe current growth numbers are mind-bending, but what I think we need to start considering now is whether revenue actually goes backward late in 2021. Companies that have been on Zoom for a year now are starting to make plans to go back into the physical office, making Zoom less of a necessity and more of a luxury for millions of users. The people who I know that have gone remote and work with other people in a large office setting spend 6-8 hours every single day on Zoom, and that number is likely to drop 80% to 90% when they go back to the office. That data is anecdotal, but a post-pandemic world likely means far fewer virtual meetings, and that could be bad for Zoom's top line and its highly valued stock.\nDon't bet on an EV charging giant emerging\nOne of the craziest stocks on the market today is Blink Charging. The company sells EV chargers and owns a network of charging stations as well. That could be a growth business in the long term, but is it worth 236 times revenue? I don't think so.\nBLNK Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.\nThere are multiple challenges Blink Charging will have to surmount to live up to its current valuation. One is that the charging business is effectively a commodity business today. The other is that there's a lot of competition from other charging networks and even at-home charging. Long-term, I don't see how one network differentiates itself from another.\nI don't question that EV sales are growing rapidly and more chargers will be needed. But with just $4.5 million in sales last year, I don't think this is a company that should have a $1.6 billion market cap today.\nA high price for high growth\nWhat each of these companies has in common is high growth. But sometimes the premium being paid for growth can be too high, and that's what I'm seeing here. Tesla, Zoom, and Blink Charging could all be great businesses long-term, I just think they're too richly valued at their current stock prices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130986025,"gmtCreate":1621503850467,"gmtModify":1704358695387,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SEA isn't good in online reviews ...&nbsp;","listText":"SEA isn't good in online reviews ...&nbsp;","text":"SEA isn't good in online reviews ...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130986025","repostId":"2136912672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136912672","pubTimestamp":1621429407,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136912672?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Smartest Investors on Wall Street Just Bought These Top Tech Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136912672","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Amid the technology dip, these fund managers scooped up the highest-quality names in the sector.","content":"<p>It's 13F season again, the time 45 days after quarter-end when top hedge funds must disclose their trades from the previous quarter. While investors should never just blindly follow top hedge funds into stocks, especially as these disclosures lag trades by as much as three months, these reports can provide insights into where Wall Street's top minds see opportunity.</p>\n<p>After a blockbuster 2020, the technology sector, as represented by the <b>Invesco QQQ Trust</b>&nbsp;sold off 1.8% in the first quarter. Cathie Wood's more speculative <b>ARK Innovation Fund</b>, which invests in more early-stage disruptive technology, sold off 3.7%. Yet both ETFs were down much, much more from early February highs.</p>\n<p>Still, it appears top hedge funds are believers in the technology sector, as many of Wall Street's biggest funds scooped up high-powered tech names as they sold off during the first quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/348d4f6f2680c0925399aa9553fd8eb2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"504\"><span>Top hedge fund managers bought technology stocks as they fell. Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>3G Capital was unafraid to make its monster <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Ltd</a>. position even bigger</h2>\n<p>3G Capital may be best known for partnering with Warren Buffett on the ill-fated <b>Kraft-Heinz </b>merger. Yet following that debacle, the investment company appears to have learned its lesson, and now invests primarily in technology-related stocks. Case in point, 3G increased its already huge holding in Southeast Asian tech giant <b>Sea Limited</b> (NYSE:SE), increasing its position from 17.6% of the portfolio to a whopping 24% in the first quarter, making it the largest position in 3G's highly concentrated fund.</p>\n<p>Sea Limited just released first-quarter earnings, and it's not hard to see why 3G is such a fan. Revenue boomed 146.7%, and importantly, gross profit margin expanded, with gross profits increasing by an even greater 212.1%. Adjusted EBITDA flipped from a $69.9 million loss a year ago to an $88.1 million gain. That improved profitability means the company's aggressive investments, especially in its Shopee e-commerce platform, are bearing fruit.</p>\n<p>The eye-opening results confirm management is delivering on its promise to become the dominant gaming, e-commerce, and digital payments company in Southeast Asia, and the company has even begun targeting Latin America next, launching its Shopee e-commerce app in Mexico back in February. A successful entry into Latin America could double the size of Sea's total addressable market.</p>\n<p>Sea Limited is down about 20% from all-time highs, but is actually up about 10% on the year. That's not too shabby following a 2020 in which the stock rocketed 385%. Even after its monster gains, it appears 3G still likes the stock, which is simultaneously succeeding in video games, e-commerce, and fintech across multiple emerging markets. Sea should be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the great growth stock of the 2020s.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59a88278efa2f581a43a4269d1f387d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> attracted fans as it fell from dizzying heights. Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Lone Pine buys the dip in Snowflake</h2>\n<p>While cloud-based data warehouse company <b>Snowflake</b> (NYSE:SNOW) has practically been cut in half since its early December highs and is down 24% on the year, the stock is still about 85% above its September IPO price. But apparently, Stephen Mandel's hedge fund Lone Pine Capital thinks Snowflake's price has fallen far enough; the fund more than <i>quadrupled</i> its stake in Snowflake as the stock fell back to earth.</p>\n<p>That increased stake was coming off a tiny base, and Snowflake still only makes up a little over 1% of Lone Pine's portfolio, which is dominated by more established FAANG stocks. Still, the big increase on what many deem an expensive stock could be a clue that the much-hyped Snowflake, a disruptor in big data management for large enterprises, is the real deal.</p>\n<p>While Snowflake is still an expensive stock, at a whopping 51 times price-to-sales ratio, those sales are booming. Product revenue surged 116% last quarter, with a net expansion rate of 168%. That's impressive, even by cloud software standards. But of course, Snowflake is a bit different than a typical software stock, as its revenue is based largely on consumption, not subscriptions.</p>\n<p>Given the impressive cloud revenue growth reported by top infrastructure-as-a-service platforms earlier in April, Rosenblatt analyst Blair Abernethy recently upgraded Snowflake to a buy with a $285 price target, well above today's $222 price, which is about the level where Lone Pine likely took a position last quarter. While still a bit expensive, younger, more aggressive investors may wish to give Snowflake a second look.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400081ae05452c6c03631140760f448b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Tiger Global triples down on DocuSign</h2>\n<p>As high-growth technology names sold off hard from February through March, top tech hedge fund Tiger Global, run by Chase Coleman III, doubled and even tripled down on several of those stocks last quarter. Notably, Tiger nearly tripled its holdings of <b>DocuSign</b> (NASDAQ:DOCU), upping its stake by 190% and making it a 2.37% portfolio allocation, the 13th-largest fund holding as of March 31.</p>\n<p>DocuSign is a first-mover and industry leader in e-signatures, which streamline the traditionally cumbersome process of signing agreements manually. In recent years, DocuSign has moved beyond e-signatures, developing technology and acquiring companies to build its Agreement Cloud, a suite of tools that automate the entire document process, saving businesses time and increasing efficiency.</p>\n<p>DocuSign's recent sell-off didn't have much to do with its operating results. After all, fourth-quarter earnings were stellar, with revenue up 57% and adjusted earnings per share of $0.37, both well ahead of analyst expectations. Rather, the sell-off was likely due to the rerating of technology shares after DocuSign tripled last year.</p>\n<p>Fears over higher inflation, and therefore higher interest rates, were likely the culprit, as higher interest rates would lower the value of future earnings. Being a high-powered growth stock with little in the way of current profits, DocuSign sold off with a lot of other top tech names.</p>\n<p>The stock is now down 35% from all-time highs set back in February, and actually below the price levels from March 31, which means investors can get a better deal on shares today than Tiger Global did.</p>\n<h2>Scared of technology these days?</h2>\n<p>While technology stocks have been acting pretty badly since February, remember that most high-growth tech stocks were coming off a blockbuster 2020, when many doubled, tripled, or increased even more. So, some cooling off is to be expected as the economy opens back up.</p>\n<p>Still, the world is innovating at a rapid pace, and top technology stocks are at the forefront of this change. So it make sense that these top funds would take advantage of the first-quarter dip to increase their stakes of these best-in-class companies.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Smartest Investors on Wall Street Just Bought These Top Tech Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Smartest Investors on Wall Street Just Bought These Top Tech Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 21:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/the-smartest-investors-on-wall-street-just-bought/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's 13F season again, the time 45 days after quarter-end when top hedge funds must disclose their trades from the previous quarter. While investors should never just blindly follow top hedge funds ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/the-smartest-investors-on-wall-street-just-bought/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ISBC":"投资者银行","DOCU":"Docusign","SE":"Sea Ltd","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/the-smartest-investors-on-wall-street-just-bought/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136912672","content_text":"It's 13F season again, the time 45 days after quarter-end when top hedge funds must disclose their trades from the previous quarter. While investors should never just blindly follow top hedge funds into stocks, especially as these disclosures lag trades by as much as three months, these reports can provide insights into where Wall Street's top minds see opportunity.\nAfter a blockbuster 2020, the technology sector, as represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust sold off 1.8% in the first quarter. Cathie Wood's more speculative ARK Innovation Fund, which invests in more early-stage disruptive technology, sold off 3.7%. Yet both ETFs were down much, much more from early February highs.\nStill, it appears top hedge funds are believers in the technology sector, as many of Wall Street's biggest funds scooped up high-powered tech names as they sold off during the first quarter.\nTop hedge fund managers bought technology stocks as they fell. Image source: Getty Images.\n3G Capital was unafraid to make its monster Sea Ltd. position even bigger\n3G Capital may be best known for partnering with Warren Buffett on the ill-fated Kraft-Heinz merger. Yet following that debacle, the investment company appears to have learned its lesson, and now invests primarily in technology-related stocks. Case in point, 3G increased its already huge holding in Southeast Asian tech giant Sea Limited (NYSE:SE), increasing its position from 17.6% of the portfolio to a whopping 24% in the first quarter, making it the largest position in 3G's highly concentrated fund.\nSea Limited just released first-quarter earnings, and it's not hard to see why 3G is such a fan. Revenue boomed 146.7%, and importantly, gross profit margin expanded, with gross profits increasing by an even greater 212.1%. Adjusted EBITDA flipped from a $69.9 million loss a year ago to an $88.1 million gain. That improved profitability means the company's aggressive investments, especially in its Shopee e-commerce platform, are bearing fruit.\nThe eye-opening results confirm management is delivering on its promise to become the dominant gaming, e-commerce, and digital payments company in Southeast Asia, and the company has even begun targeting Latin America next, launching its Shopee e-commerce app in Mexico back in February. A successful entry into Latin America could double the size of Sea's total addressable market.\nSea Limited is down about 20% from all-time highs, but is actually up about 10% on the year. That's not too shabby following a 2020 in which the stock rocketed 385%. Even after its monster gains, it appears 3G still likes the stock, which is simultaneously succeeding in video games, e-commerce, and fintech across multiple emerging markets. Sea should be one of the great growth stock of the 2020s.\nSnowflake attracted fans as it fell from dizzying heights. Image source: Getty Images.\nLone Pine buys the dip in Snowflake\nWhile cloud-based data warehouse company Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) has practically been cut in half since its early December highs and is down 24% on the year, the stock is still about 85% above its September IPO price. But apparently, Stephen Mandel's hedge fund Lone Pine Capital thinks Snowflake's price has fallen far enough; the fund more than quadrupled its stake in Snowflake as the stock fell back to earth.\nThat increased stake was coming off a tiny base, and Snowflake still only makes up a little over 1% of Lone Pine's portfolio, which is dominated by more established FAANG stocks. Still, the big increase on what many deem an expensive stock could be a clue that the much-hyped Snowflake, a disruptor in big data management for large enterprises, is the real deal.\nWhile Snowflake is still an expensive stock, at a whopping 51 times price-to-sales ratio, those sales are booming. Product revenue surged 116% last quarter, with a net expansion rate of 168%. That's impressive, even by cloud software standards. But of course, Snowflake is a bit different than a typical software stock, as its revenue is based largely on consumption, not subscriptions.\nGiven the impressive cloud revenue growth reported by top infrastructure-as-a-service platforms earlier in April, Rosenblatt analyst Blair Abernethy recently upgraded Snowflake to a buy with a $285 price target, well above today's $222 price, which is about the level where Lone Pine likely took a position last quarter. While still a bit expensive, younger, more aggressive investors may wish to give Snowflake a second look.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nTiger Global triples down on DocuSign\nAs high-growth technology names sold off hard from February through March, top tech hedge fund Tiger Global, run by Chase Coleman III, doubled and even tripled down on several of those stocks last quarter. Notably, Tiger nearly tripled its holdings of DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU), upping its stake by 190% and making it a 2.37% portfolio allocation, the 13th-largest fund holding as of March 31.\nDocuSign is a first-mover and industry leader in e-signatures, which streamline the traditionally cumbersome process of signing agreements manually. In recent years, DocuSign has moved beyond e-signatures, developing technology and acquiring companies to build its Agreement Cloud, a suite of tools that automate the entire document process, saving businesses time and increasing efficiency.\nDocuSign's recent sell-off didn't have much to do with its operating results. After all, fourth-quarter earnings were stellar, with revenue up 57% and adjusted earnings per share of $0.37, both well ahead of analyst expectations. Rather, the sell-off was likely due to the rerating of technology shares after DocuSign tripled last year.\nFears over higher inflation, and therefore higher interest rates, were likely the culprit, as higher interest rates would lower the value of future earnings. Being a high-powered growth stock with little in the way of current profits, DocuSign sold off with a lot of other top tech names.\nThe stock is now down 35% from all-time highs set back in February, and actually below the price levels from March 31, which means investors can get a better deal on shares today than Tiger Global did.\nScared of technology these days?\nWhile technology stocks have been acting pretty badly since February, remember that most high-growth tech stocks were coming off a blockbuster 2020, when many doubled, tripled, or increased even more. So, some cooling off is to be expected as the economy opens back up.\nStill, the world is innovating at a rapid pace, and top technology stocks are at the forefront of this change. So it make sense that these top funds would take advantage of the first-quarter dip to increase their stakes of these best-in-class companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355311126,"gmtCreate":1617028138365,"gmtModify":1704801083364,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow.&nbsp;","listText":"Wow.&nbsp;","text":"Wow.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355311126","repostId":"1135921653","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135921653","pubTimestamp":1617026419,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135921653?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is launching an ETF focused on space exploration, to begin trading Tuesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135921653","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nArk Invest, Cathie Wood’s firm with multiple actively managed exchanged-traded funds, wi","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nArk Invest, Cathie Wood’s firm with multiple actively managed exchanged-traded funds, will debut its latest fund on Tuesday: a space exploration ETF.\nARKX, the firm’s eighth ETF, comes as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/ark-invests-arkx-space-exploration-etf-to-begin-trading-on-tuesday.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is launching an ETF focused on space exploration, to begin trading Tuesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood’s ARK Invest is launching an ETF focused on space exploration, to begin trading Tuesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 22:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/ark-invests-arkx-space-exploration-etf-to-begin-trading-on-tuesday.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nArk Invest, Cathie Wood’s firm with multiple actively managed exchanged-traded funds, will debut its latest fund on Tuesday: a space exploration ETF.\nARKX, the firm’s eighth ETF, comes as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/ark-invests-arkx-space-exploration-etf-to-begin-trading-on-tuesday.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411c6ea7e969aee81c7c240d3341abef","relate_stocks":{"ARKX":"ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/ark-invests-arkx-space-exploration-etf-to-begin-trading-on-tuesday.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1135921653","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nArk Invest, Cathie Wood’s firm with multiple actively managed exchanged-traded funds, will debut its latest fund on Tuesday: a space exploration ETF.\nARKX, the firm’s eighth ETF, comes as an increasing number of private space companies prepare to go public later this year.\nWood — CIO and CEO of Ark Investment Management — has made a name for herself by investing in “disruptive innovation” stocks.\n\nArk Invest, Cathie Wood’s firm with multiple actively managed exchanged-traded funds, will debut its latest fund on Tuesday: aspace exploration ETF.\nARKX, the firm’s eighth ETF, comes as an increasing number of private space companies prepare to go public later this year. In the past six months,seven space companies have announced SPAC deals.\nWood — chief investment officer and CEO of Ark Investment Management — has made a name for herself by investing in \"disruptive innovation\" stocks. Wood's flagship fund, Ark Innovation, has seen more than $16 billion in inflows in the past year, according to FactSet.\nWood has big bets on names like Tesla, Teladoc and Roku.\nWood has garnered a large following after Ark Innovation returned nearly 150% last year. However, her flagship fund, Ark Innovation, is down nearly 9% this year. Amid the recent rotation out of technology names and into value stocks from the pressure of rising interest rates,Wood has stayed the course. Ark often buys the dip in any of its top holdings, which are all high conviction names.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325243001,"gmtCreate":1615903671603,"gmtModify":1704788251078,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agreeing.&nbsp;","listText":"Agreeing.&nbsp;","text":"Agreeing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325243001","repostId":"1105988154","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105988154","pubTimestamp":1615853416,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105988154?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 08:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105988154","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesd","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after the Fed’s two-day meeting.\nThe Fed will...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 08:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after the Fed’s two-day meeting.\nThe Fed will...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1105988154","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after the Fed’s two-day meeting.\nThe Fed will release new economic and interest rate forecasts, which could show Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2023.\nBlackRock’s Rick Rieder said Powell’s briefing could be “exciting to see” and the Fed meeting could be the central bank’s “March Madness” for markets, since the chairman could begin to reveal some views on the future path of Fed policy.\n\nOdds are high the Fed will move markets this week, no matter how hard it tries not to.\nWith the surge in interest rates and rebounding economy, the Fed’s easy policies are in the spotlight, and increasingly the question has become when will it consider unwinding them. Fed Chairman Jerome Powellis likely to be asked questions about the Fed’s low interest rate policies and asset purchases during his press briefing, following the Fed’s two-day meeting that concludes Wednesday.\nPowell is unlikey to be specific but what he says could rock the already volatile bond market, and that in turn could drive stocks. It could particularly hit growth stocks, if bond yields begin to rise.\n“I think the last press conference, I think I watched with one eye, and listened with one ear. This one I’m going to be tuned in to every word, and the markets are going to be tuned in to every word,” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO for global fixed income. “If he says nothing, it will move markets. If he says a lot it will move markets.”\nRieder said the briefing should be “exciting to see,” and a challenge for the Fed to potentially begin changing communications on its policy. He said investors will be parsing every word. “This will be the March Madness,” for the markets, he said, referring to the highly anticipated collegiate basketball tournament.\nPowell clearly has the ball, and what he decides to say Wednesday will dictate to edgy markets how soon the Fed might consider paring back its bond buying and even raising interest rates from zero.\nStatement to stay mostly the same\nThe Federal Open Market Committee will release its statement at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, after the meeting, and Fed watchers expect little change in the text.\nBut the Fed also releases officials’ latest forecasts for the economy and interest rates. That could show that most officials would be ready to raise the fed funds target rate range from zero in 2023, and a few members may even be ready to raise rates next year.\n“We think they will sound a bit more optimistic but still cautious. That said, we think it will be hard for them to sound as dovish as they have been just because the facts on the ground are improving,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-rate strategy at Bank of America. “As a result of that, we think they’re going to sound a little less accommodative than the market is expecting. We think they’re likely to show a hike at the end of 2023.”\nRieder said the Fed’s been steadily steering its easing programs, but now it needs to begin to communicate that it expects to change policy on both asset purchases and interest rates. He said the Fed has been explicit in that it would provide plenty of time between when it starts communicating change and when it acts.\n“It strikes me it’s time,” he said. Rieder said his out-of-consensus view is that the Fed could start tapering back its bond buying in September or December, and it needs to begin discussing that now. The Fed buys $80 billion a month of Treasurys and $40 billion a month of mortgages.\nHe also said the Fed could also start raising short-term interest rates next year without hurting the economy. The Fed has not forecast any interest rate hikes until after 2023, but that could change in its latest forecast.\n“They can’t raise short interest rates this year, but as you get into the second and third quarter of next year, not raising short-term interest rates would be incongruous with what their economic projections should be,” Rieder said.\nRates on the rise\nThe Fed meets against a back drop of rate volatility in the more typically staid Treasury market. Over the past six weeks, the 10-year yield,which influences mortgage rates and other loans, has risen from 1.07% to a high of 1.64% last Friday. It was at 1.6% Monday.\nThe yield, which moves opposite price, has been reacting to a more upbeat view of the economy, based on the vaccine rollout and Washington’s stimulus spending. It has also reacted to the idea that inflation could pick up as the economy roars back. Powell has said the Fed expects to see just a temporary jump in inflation measures in the spring because of the depressed prices during the economic shutdown last year.\n“They’ve got to start that communication ... the markets are waiting for it,” Rieder said. “The jumpiness of rates and the volatility in the market is because we haven’t heard their plan yet.”\nRieder said the Fed could raise interest rates while it is still buying bonds. He said it may want to shift its purchases more towards the long end to keep longer term rates low, since they impact mortgages and other loans.\n“In their economic projections, their employment projections for next year is probably going to be 4%. If that’s right, why not? Raising short-end interest rates and draining some liquidity out of the front part of the yield curve is not a problem,” he said.\n“Times like these call for creativity and innovation,” Rieder said. “They’ve been remarkably innovative. They’ve provided so much liquidity to the system, the front end is awash in liquidity and yields are too low, in an environment where you could have 7% growth this year.”.\nIn the last forecast, five of 17 members expected a rate hike in 2023, and just one forecast a hike in 2022. Fed officials provide their rate forecasts anonymously, on a so-called dot plot.\nThe Fed has said it would continue its bond purchases until it’s made “substantial progress” towards its goals.\nCabana said there could be a few officials who now forecast a hike for 2022, but he doesn’t expect the Fed to embrace that yet. The fed funds futures market is pricing in close to one hike in 2022 and three hikes by the end of 2023.\n“You think if the market is pricing that, and the Fed doesn’t deliver, the market should be disappointed. We actually think many in the market think the Fed will push back, and the Fed will tell the market it’s wrong,” said Cabana. “We don’t think so. We think the Fed will retain the optionality of having the market price in a rosier outlook. Does the Fed hope the market is right, or they’re right? The Fed is hoping the market is right because it wants to achieve its goal sooner. We don’t think the Fed is going to push back too hard.”\nThe Fed could say “substantive progress is still some time away,” Cabana said. He said he does expect the Fed at some point to change the duration of bonds it is buying and shift towards the long end to keep those rates, like the 10-year, from rising too much.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323595625,"gmtCreate":1615352316467,"gmtModify":1704781553381,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"......&nbsp;","listText":"......&nbsp;","text":"......","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323595625","repostId":"1160680775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348364885,"gmtCreate":1617889622547,"gmtModify":1704704432306,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aiyo","listText":"Aiyo","text":"Aiyo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348364885","repostId":"2125770591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2125770591","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1617889323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2125770591?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 21:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. adds Chinese supercomputing entities to economic blacklist","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2125770591","media":"Reuters","summary":"April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday it was adding seven Chinese supercomp","content":"<p>April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday it was adding seven Chinese supercomputing entities to a U.S. economic blacklist for assisting Chinese military</p>\n<p>The department is adding Tianjin Phytium Information Technology, Shanghai High-Performance Integrated Circuit Design Center, Sunway Microelectronics, the National Supercomputing Center Jinan, the National Supercomputing Center Shenzhen, the National Supercomputing Center Wuxi, and the National Supercomputing Center Zhengzhou. The Commerce Department said the seven were \"involved with building supercomputers used by China’s military actors.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. adds Chinese supercomputing entities to economic blacklist</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. adds Chinese supercomputing entities to economic blacklist\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-08 21:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday it was adding seven Chinese supercomputing entities to a U.S. economic blacklist for assisting Chinese military</p>\n<p>The department is adding Tianjin Phytium Information Technology, Shanghai High-Performance Integrated Circuit Design Center, Sunway Microelectronics, the National Supercomputing Center Jinan, the National Supercomputing Center Shenzhen, the National Supercomputing Center Wuxi, and the National Supercomputing Center Zhengzhou. The Commerce Department said the seven were \"involved with building supercomputers used by China’s military actors.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2125770591","content_text":"April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday it was adding seven Chinese supercomputing entities to a U.S. economic blacklist for assisting Chinese military\nThe department is adding Tianjin Phytium Information Technology, Shanghai High-Performance Integrated Circuit Design Center, Sunway Microelectronics, the National Supercomputing Center Jinan, the National Supercomputing Center Shenzhen, the National Supercomputing Center Wuxi, and the National Supercomputing Center Zhengzhou. The Commerce Department said the seven were \"involved with building supercomputers used by China’s military actors.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348365089,"gmtCreate":1617889582541,"gmtModify":1704704430178,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".&nbsp;","listText":".&nbsp;","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348365089","repostId":"1151024477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355319264,"gmtCreate":1617028039558,"gmtModify":1704801081418,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news for the world. ?","listText":"Good news for the world. ?","text":"Good news for the world. ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355319264","repostId":"1155390932","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358990381,"gmtCreate":1616647004843,"gmtModify":1704796882426,"author":{"id":"3575420538111046","authorId":"3575420538111046","name":"SGLian","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575420538111046","authorIdStr":"3575420538111046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","listText":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","text":"@kahxiang - is this the way to tag? ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358990381","repostId":"1155582622","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155582622","pubTimestamp":1616426086,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155582622?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155582622","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.TSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing  the most advanced high-end technology,  the largest and still rising market share, and  15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.If considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s lev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.</li>\n <li>TSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing (1) the most advanced high-end technology, (2) the largest and still rising market share, and (3) 15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.</li>\n <li>TSMC’s future low-ground scenario includes (1) declining utilization rates due to fading WFH demand, (2) USD depreciations cutting into EPS, and (3) $28 billion capex cutting into future dividend payments.</li>\n <li>If considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level with a moderate upside for 2021.</li>\n <li>The real excitement is that TSM may reach $170 by 2022.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59820ae2f73b142d92ed1e65f1b1085d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>It is hardly an exaggeration to call Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(NYSE:TSM)(“TSMC”) the most important company in the world. At the very least, Taiwanese call TSMC their “Protecting Taiwan God Mountain.” Considering it is practically the “choke point” of the $470 billion global semiconductor industry, TSMC is also “potentially the most single point of failure in the semiconductor value chain,”said&nbsp;Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Director of the technology and geopolitics project at Berlin-based think tank,<i>Stiftung Neue Verantwortung</i>.</p>\n<p>TSMC processes the most advanced foundry technology and the largest market share (54%) in a capacity-constrained industry. Obviously, both the company and the stock have benefited significantly from the limitation of capacity expansion to meet the surging demand. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue has grown 25%, while the stock went up over 90%. It appears that their stock has looked beyond the recent financial performance.</p>\n<p>For that purpose, in this post, I described TSMC's future with a best-case and a worst-case scenario, respectively. TSMC's high-ground is that the structural growth drivers should remain intact if the company can retain the technological advances to create a wider chip platform to support the long-term growth of AI and HPC. Short-term demand should stay strong due to the global chip shortage and possible Intel outsourcing. However, TSMC should also expect the low-ground cases that are mainly from the decreasing utilization rate, weakening USD, higher capital expenditure diluting future dividend payments, the market-wide rising yield effect, and valuation correction. I also mapped out the path of TSMC future share price movements under each scenario. Given a higher likelihood for the high-ground case, TSMC may have a 20% upside in the next 12 months and a 70% upside in the next 24 months.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC’s High Ground</b></p>\n<p>The best-case scenario assumes that TSMC will retain most of the following favorable factors which have contributed to TSMC’s 2020 gain:</p>\n<p><b>Most advanced high-end technology supports TSMC’s long-term structural growth.</b>Compared amongst peers, TSMC is easily the leader in the arcane Extreme Ultra Violet (ELV) process, where it has half the world’s installed base and&nbsp;60% of its production.By 2020, TSMC has delivered&nbsp;over 1 billion 7 nm chips, while Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)is still struggling to master its 7nm process. TSMC’s 5nm chips has lower defect rates than it did at this point in its 7nm development. It is already ramping up for 3 nm production by the end of 2022 and has begun working&nbsp;on the 2 nm process(see figure below). The lead in technology is the basis for the structural growth drivers which should remain intact in the next few years, with TSMC being the key enabler of this AI/HPC revolution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068ca2e4582ecb2e1a44f88ec1093900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><b>The market share hits</b>&nbsp;<b>54%</b>&nbsp;<b>and expects to rise.</b>After reporting record revenue in 2020 based on demand for 5G smartphones, notebooks for teleworking and high-performance computers, TSMC reached a commanding 54% market share with the next competitor, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)at a distant 18%. It is expected that TSMC’s market share dominance may continue as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)remains TSMC’s major customer and will give the Taiwanese firm more business for chips made with its most advanced technology.</p>\n<p><b>Short-term demand remains robust in the logic semi space.</b>Thanks to WFH-induced global chip shortage<b>,</b>full utilization nearly across all process nodes (especially tight at 7nm, 40nm and 8\") with continued 28nm utilization improvement. The better-than-expected crypto miner ASIC demand helping to fill the gap of 5nm capacity slack due to iPhone order cuts and Apple seasonality.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC should see more corroboration</b>&nbsp;of growth momentum in HPC, potential Intel CPU orders at 3nm, faster growth in&nbsp;AMD&nbsp;CPU, and Nvidia’s(NASDAQ:NVDA)AI accelerators. Intel outsourcing, if executed, is estimated to add 1% to TSMC’s revenue (Mizuho).</p>\n<p><b>The $28 billion capex spending</b>&nbsp;reflects management's confidence about advanced node chips' long-term demand strength and possible 15% compound annual revenue growth in the next 2-3 years.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC’s Low Ground</b></p>\n<p>The low-ground case would include several negative factors on the horizon that the high-ground case does not consider:</p>\n<p><b>Decreasing utilization rate results from fading WFH demand.</b>TSMC has operated at full capacity for a while; however, weaker-than-expected demand and macro conditions may lead to downside risk for utilization rate forecasts.It is estimated&nbsp;that every 1% decline in the utilization rate could result in 4%-5% downside to the 2021-2022 EPS estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Medium-term inventory correction is inevitable.</b>Inventory correction from a fading WFH demand is expected in 2H21. Logic semi inventory restocking has lasted for 6-7 quarters by 1Q21. While near-term demand indicators remain solid in the logic semi space, it is likely that there will be some inventory correction after 2022, as suggested by the analyst forecasts (Figure 2). However, JP Morgan predicts that end demand drivers for TSMC are likely to become more structural rather than cyclical in the future, with revenues from HPC likely to crossover those from smartphones by 2023. Consequently, TSMC could fare better during logic semi down cycle and recover faster from the trough vs other tier-2 Foundries (JP Morgan).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ebf5f3771333335e3ec84dda7798fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"></p>\n<p><b>Average selling price (ASP) may go down.</b>TSMC has benefited from a 6% increase in ASP in 2021/22. However, the advantage has been reduced due to pricing competition from Samsung.Mizuho&nbsp;estimated that every 1% fall in ASP could result in 2%-3% downside for our EPS estimates for 2021-22.</p>\n<p><b>Weakening USD (Strengthening TWD) cuts into EPS.</b>Approximately 99% of TSMC’s sales are denominated in US dollars, but only 15% of its Cost of Goods Sold is in US dollars. Thus, TWD appreciation impacts the company’s gross margin. Based on&nbsp;Mizuho’s estimate,every 1% TWD appreciation could lead to 1%-2% downside to EPS estimates for 2021-22.</p>\n<p><b>$28 billion Capex may dilute dividend payment</b>. Taiwan Semiconductor's 1Q guidance of 23% year-over-year revenue growth indicates stronger sales of computing processors and automotive chips may offset the seasonality of smartphone chips. The $28 billion full-year capital budget&nbsp;may cut into&nbsp;the company's free cash flow and lead to greater volatility in the dividend.</p>\n<p><b>From Future Financials to Future Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>After the high-ground and low-ground scenarios are developed, I will explain how to convert forecast financials into future stock prices: If a stock is priced based on its forecast financials at each point in time, I should first find those financial metrics which have traditionally affected the stock prices. A historical relationship between the historical stock prices and these financial metrics is first identified (multiple regression method). Then, the current forecast of these financial metrics at different future time point can be used to generate the future stock price targets. Historically, TSMC's stock prices are known to react to consensus forecasts of revenue, EPS, gross margin, capital expenditure, and free cash flow or dividend, e.g., the relationships in Figures 1A-1B.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8598e14f696255c7faa92760ef906f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed9aa585df33e69929a8a843f28e00f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\"></p>\n<p>Keep in mind that although I used historical data to estimate a historical relationship, it is still a forward-looking process. This is because, at any point in time in history, TSMC's price is estimated by the forward estimates of the five financial metrics at that time. The only assumption I made is that investors used the same (forward-looking) valuation structure to price stocks consistently. Using the relationship and the analysts' next 10-quarter estimates of the five metrics, I was able to compute the future stock prices corresponding to those forward financials.</p>\n<p><b>High-Ground vs. Low-Ground Share Prices</b></p>\n<p>For high-ground scenario, I used the normal relationship which assumes TSMC stock price is determined by forecast quarterly revenue, EPS, capital expenditure, and dividend estimates. For low-ground scenario, I included additional negative factors of expected 10-year Treasury yield up moves (from futures contracts), the future USD depreciation (from futures contracts), the forecast higher inventory, and forecast distant revenue growth rates (for lower utilization rates).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3a771ad144f1a71a405203b9b19b58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"></p>\n<p>In Figure 2, I showed the high-ground prices in red, the low-ground prices in green and the actual TSMC price in black. Of course, after Q1 2021, only predicted prices are available. If you can go along with my approach, Figure 3 becomes quite telling. First of all, up till today, both predicted prices seem to map the actual stock price quite closely, the tight relationship implicitly validate the power of the models. It is also expected both scenarios behaved very similarly because all the additional (negative) factors included in the low-ground case are more relevant in the next few quarters. This is why the high-ground price explains the realty better until today, as both actual and high-ground prices are around $118 at Q1 2021, while low-ground price is at $81.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ff924f4d6ece1e451e1ca16ddc2070\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"></p>\n<p>It is more important to see how the future share price plays out under each scenario. Table 1 indicates that the high-ground prices consistently trade at a $40 premium over the low-ground price and eventually to over $80 premium by Q4 2022. Of course, you can assign your own estimates on the chance that each scenario will happen. Due to the short-term nature of all the negative factors, my own guess is biased to the high-ground, fundamental picture of TSMC. Using a 30% low-ground/70% high-ground guess, the resulting TSMC future share price may be relatively flat in 2021 but will take off to $170 by the end of 2022 (Table 1).</p>\n<p><b>Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>Being the largest player in a critically important space, TSMC is at the choke point that gives the company an advantage to benefit from the rigidity of capacity expansion to meet demand surge (high ground). It appears that TSMC share price has already priced in this advantage. But like all other tech stocks, TSM has not priced in the rising yields, fading WFH demand, high valuation, and future competitors’ challenges (low ground).</p>\n<p>If considering both the high ground and low ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level. But share price is expected to have moderate upside for 2021. The real excitement will be in 2022 when the negative low-ground factors are out of the system. TSM may reach $170 by 2022.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155582622","content_text":"Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.\nTSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing (1) the most advanced high-end technology, (2) the largest and still rising market share, and (3) 15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.\nTSMC’s future low-ground scenario includes (1) declining utilization rates due to fading WFH demand, (2) USD depreciations cutting into EPS, and (3) $28 billion capex cutting into future dividend payments.\nIf considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level with a moderate upside for 2021.\nThe real excitement is that TSM may reach $170 by 2022.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt is hardly an exaggeration to call Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(NYSE:TSM)(“TSMC”) the most important company in the world. At the very least, Taiwanese call TSMC their “Protecting Taiwan God Mountain.” Considering it is practically the “choke point” of the $470 billion global semiconductor industry, TSMC is also “potentially the most single point of failure in the semiconductor value chain,”said Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Director of the technology and geopolitics project at Berlin-based think tank,Stiftung Neue Verantwortung.\nTSMC processes the most advanced foundry technology and the largest market share (54%) in a capacity-constrained industry. Obviously, both the company and the stock have benefited significantly from the limitation of capacity expansion to meet the surging demand. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue has grown 25%, while the stock went up over 90%. It appears that their stock has looked beyond the recent financial performance.\nFor that purpose, in this post, I described TSMC's future with a best-case and a worst-case scenario, respectively. TSMC's high-ground is that the structural growth drivers should remain intact if the company can retain the technological advances to create a wider chip platform to support the long-term growth of AI and HPC. Short-term demand should stay strong due to the global chip shortage and possible Intel outsourcing. However, TSMC should also expect the low-ground cases that are mainly from the decreasing utilization rate, weakening USD, higher capital expenditure diluting future dividend payments, the market-wide rising yield effect, and valuation correction. I also mapped out the path of TSMC future share price movements under each scenario. Given a higher likelihood for the high-ground case, TSMC may have a 20% upside in the next 12 months and a 70% upside in the next 24 months.\nTSMC’s High Ground\nThe best-case scenario assumes that TSMC will retain most of the following favorable factors which have contributed to TSMC’s 2020 gain:\nMost advanced high-end technology supports TSMC’s long-term structural growth.Compared amongst peers, TSMC is easily the leader in the arcane Extreme Ultra Violet (ELV) process, where it has half the world’s installed base and 60% of its production.By 2020, TSMC has delivered over 1 billion 7 nm chips, while Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)is still struggling to master its 7nm process. TSMC’s 5nm chips has lower defect rates than it did at this point in its 7nm development. It is already ramping up for 3 nm production by the end of 2022 and has begun working on the 2 nm process(see figure below). The lead in technology is the basis for the structural growth drivers which should remain intact in the next few years, with TSMC being the key enabler of this AI/HPC revolution.\n\nThe market share hits 54% and expects to rise.After reporting record revenue in 2020 based on demand for 5G smartphones, notebooks for teleworking and high-performance computers, TSMC reached a commanding 54% market share with the next competitor, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)at a distant 18%. It is expected that TSMC’s market share dominance may continue as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)remains TSMC’s major customer and will give the Taiwanese firm more business for chips made with its most advanced technology.\nShort-term demand remains robust in the logic semi space.Thanks to WFH-induced global chip shortage,full utilization nearly across all process nodes (especially tight at 7nm, 40nm and 8\") with continued 28nm utilization improvement. The better-than-expected crypto miner ASIC demand helping to fill the gap of 5nm capacity slack due to iPhone order cuts and Apple seasonality.\nTSMC should see more corroboration of growth momentum in HPC, potential Intel CPU orders at 3nm, faster growth in AMD CPU, and Nvidia’s(NASDAQ:NVDA)AI accelerators. Intel outsourcing, if executed, is estimated to add 1% to TSMC’s revenue (Mizuho).\nThe $28 billion capex spending reflects management's confidence about advanced node chips' long-term demand strength and possible 15% compound annual revenue growth in the next 2-3 years.\nTSMC’s Low Ground\nThe low-ground case would include several negative factors on the horizon that the high-ground case does not consider:\nDecreasing utilization rate results from fading WFH demand.TSMC has operated at full capacity for a while; however, weaker-than-expected demand and macro conditions may lead to downside risk for utilization rate forecasts.It is estimated that every 1% decline in the utilization rate could result in 4%-5% downside to the 2021-2022 EPS estimates.\nMedium-term inventory correction is inevitable.Inventory correction from a fading WFH demand is expected in 2H21. Logic semi inventory restocking has lasted for 6-7 quarters by 1Q21. While near-term demand indicators remain solid in the logic semi space, it is likely that there will be some inventory correction after 2022, as suggested by the analyst forecasts (Figure 2). However, JP Morgan predicts that end demand drivers for TSMC are likely to become more structural rather than cyclical in the future, with revenues from HPC likely to crossover those from smartphones by 2023. Consequently, TSMC could fare better during logic semi down cycle and recover faster from the trough vs other tier-2 Foundries (JP Morgan).\n\nAverage selling price (ASP) may go down.TSMC has benefited from a 6% increase in ASP in 2021/22. However, the advantage has been reduced due to pricing competition from Samsung.Mizuho estimated that every 1% fall in ASP could result in 2%-3% downside for our EPS estimates for 2021-22.\nWeakening USD (Strengthening TWD) cuts into EPS.Approximately 99% of TSMC’s sales are denominated in US dollars, but only 15% of its Cost of Goods Sold is in US dollars. Thus, TWD appreciation impacts the company’s gross margin. Based on Mizuho’s estimate,every 1% TWD appreciation could lead to 1%-2% downside to EPS estimates for 2021-22.\n$28 billion Capex may dilute dividend payment. Taiwan Semiconductor's 1Q guidance of 23% year-over-year revenue growth indicates stronger sales of computing processors and automotive chips may offset the seasonality of smartphone chips. The $28 billion full-year capital budget may cut into the company's free cash flow and lead to greater volatility in the dividend.\nFrom Future Financials to Future Stock Prices\nAfter the high-ground and low-ground scenarios are developed, I will explain how to convert forecast financials into future stock prices: If a stock is priced based on its forecast financials at each point in time, I should first find those financial metrics which have traditionally affected the stock prices. A historical relationship between the historical stock prices and these financial metrics is first identified (multiple regression method). Then, the current forecast of these financial metrics at different future time point can be used to generate the future stock price targets. Historically, TSMC's stock prices are known to react to consensus forecasts of revenue, EPS, gross margin, capital expenditure, and free cash flow or dividend, e.g., the relationships in Figures 1A-1B.\n\nKeep in mind that although I used historical data to estimate a historical relationship, it is still a forward-looking process. This is because, at any point in time in history, TSMC's price is estimated by the forward estimates of the five financial metrics at that time. The only assumption I made is that investors used the same (forward-looking) valuation structure to price stocks consistently. Using the relationship and the analysts' next 10-quarter estimates of the five metrics, I was able to compute the future stock prices corresponding to those forward financials.\nHigh-Ground vs. Low-Ground Share Prices\nFor high-ground scenario, I used the normal relationship which assumes TSMC stock price is determined by forecast quarterly revenue, EPS, capital expenditure, and dividend estimates. For low-ground scenario, I included additional negative factors of expected 10-year Treasury yield up moves (from futures contracts), the future USD depreciation (from futures contracts), the forecast higher inventory, and forecast distant revenue growth rates (for lower utilization rates).\n\nIn Figure 2, I showed the high-ground prices in red, the low-ground prices in green and the actual TSMC price in black. Of course, after Q1 2021, only predicted prices are available. If you can go along with my approach, Figure 3 becomes quite telling. First of all, up till today, both predicted prices seem to map the actual stock price quite closely, the tight relationship implicitly validate the power of the models. It is also expected both scenarios behaved very similarly because all the additional (negative) factors included in the low-ground case are more relevant in the next few quarters. This is why the high-ground price explains the realty better until today, as both actual and high-ground prices are around $118 at Q1 2021, while low-ground price is at $81.\n\nIt is more important to see how the future share price plays out under each scenario. Table 1 indicates that the high-ground prices consistently trade at a $40 premium over the low-ground price and eventually to over $80 premium by Q4 2022. Of course, you can assign your own estimates on the chance that each scenario will happen. Due to the short-term nature of all the negative factors, my own guess is biased to the high-ground, fundamental picture of TSMC. Using a 30% low-ground/70% high-ground guess, the resulting TSMC future share price may be relatively flat in 2021 but will take off to $170 by the end of 2022 (Table 1).\nTakeaways\nBeing the largest player in a critically important space, TSMC is at the choke point that gives the company an advantage to benefit from the rigidity of capacity expansion to meet demand surge (high ground). It appears that TSMC share price has already priced in this advantage. But like all other tech stocks, TSM has not priced in the rising yields, fading WFH demand, high valuation, and future competitors’ challenges (low ground).\nIf considering both the high ground and low ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level. But share price is expected to have moderate upside for 2021. The real excitement will be in 2022 when the negative low-ground factors are out of the system. TSM may reach $170 by 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}