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2022-08-13

A collection of the negatives Tesla faced . Good summary. Nothing about Tesla's strength. Got to read the latter to have a balanced view.

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2022-05-19

Not only Tesla is falling, the whole market is down..

Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will

2022-10-03

Wow... what a super negative piece linking all problems to Tsla stock pricedemise imminently ... believe ? Very hard

Tesla Investors Are Skating On Thin Ice

2022-05-02

Impact from covid affects all but Tesla should recover faster. Why only Tesla investors beware? Median to longer term, Tesla will do better

Tesla Investors Beware: Bad NIO, Li, XPeng April Deliveries Hit by Covid.

2022-04-05

Why speak the obvious? Just buy

Tesla: After A ~60% Rally, There's More In Store

2022-05-23

very true. What else is there to buy? Nothing beats tesla

Is Tesla Stock a Buy?

2022-03-18

No bond deal, no big deal.

What Does Tesla's Delay of Bond Issue Mean for its Stock?

2022-03-10

May be? Yes, maybe

Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point

2022-08-17

Speaking the obvious. Still buy cautiously and within means, long term Tslawill appreciate but short term, peoplemight take advantage of what is said here and make money by pushing theprice either way and cause upset

TSLA Is a Must-Buy Ahead of the Aug. 17 Tesla Stock Split

2022-05-19

U must be kidding

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2022-03-11

Don't state the obvious.

Singapore Shares May Head South On Friday

2022-07-01

A collection of the recent bad news on Tesla. Tesla will come back stronger

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2022-06-02

Same old trash Tsla story.. can u think of something better to write??

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2022-05-24

Tsla is down again today. Are u seeing things?

TSLA Stock Fans Should (Maybe) Watch for This Huge FSD Catalyst Next Year

2022-04-20

What a load of rubblsh!

Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?

2022-03-01

I think u should read more

Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued

2022-10-24

including GLJ inputs into your analysis swings u away from reality and affects the balance of your presentation...

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2022-08-18

Wet blanket

Tesla Stock Split: 5 Things to Know About the Upcoming Split

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Utterly confusing&nbsp;","listText":"Seriously, grateful if all posts are checked before release. Utterly confusing&nbsp;","text":"Seriously, grateful if all posts are checked before release. Utterly confusing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331266225848464","repostId":"1108198959","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108198959","pubTimestamp":1721876407,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108198959?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-25 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Bull Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Sells $7.16M Worth Of EV Maker's Shares After Q2 Earnings Reveal Profits Tanked Sharply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108198959","media":"Benzinga","summary":"On Wednesday, Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest made a significant move by buying shares of  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , despite the electric vehicle giant’s recent market challenges.The Tesla TradeArk Invest’s  ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On Wednesday, Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest made a significant move by buying shares of  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> , despite the electric vehicle giant’s recent market challenges.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>The Tesla Trade</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ark Invest’s  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKW\">ARK Next Generation Internation ETF</a>  acquired 33,143 shares of Tesla, a move that came on the heels of a turbulent period for the company. The value of this trade, based on the closing price of $215.99 on the same day, is approximately $7.16 million.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This purchase is particularly noteworthy given the context of Tesla’s recent performance. The company’s second-quarter financial results, reported on Tuesday, showed a revenue beat but an EPS miss.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Furthermore, Tesla’s automotive revenue dropped 7% YoY to $19.9 billion, marking its second straight quarter of YoY sales declines. This was the first time the company had experienced consecutive quarters of declining sales volume. Despite these challenges, Ark Invest has shown confidence in Tesla’s long-term prospects.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On Tuesday, Ark Invest sold nearly $3.7 million worth of Tesla shares in continuation of a recent trend.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Other Key Trades:</strong></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p>Ark Fintech Innovation ETF bought 1,059 shares of  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a></p></li><li><p>Ark Fintech Innovation ETF sold shares of  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOST\">Toast, Inc.</a> </p></li><li><p>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF bought shares of  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXG\">10x Genomics, Inc.</a> </p></li><li><p>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF sold shares of  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">Teladoc Health Inc.</a> </p></li><li><p>ARK Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics ETF bought shares of  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKLO\">Oklo Inc.</a> </p></li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Bull Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Sells $7.16M Worth Of EV Maker's Shares After Q2 Earnings Reveal Profits Tanked Sharply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Bull Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Sells $7.16M Worth Of EV Maker's Shares After Q2 Earnings Reveal Profits Tanked Sharply\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-25 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39947856/tesla-bull-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sells-7-16m-worth-of-ev-makers-shares-after-q2-earnings-revea><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On Wednesday, Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest made a significant move by buying shares of  Tesla Motors , despite the electric vehicle giant’s recent market challenges.The Tesla TradeArk Invest’s  ARK Next...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39947856/tesla-bull-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sells-7-16m-worth-of-ev-makers-shares-after-q2-earnings-revea\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internation ETF","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","MELI":"MercadoLibre"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39947856/tesla-bull-cathie-woods-ark-invest-sells-7-16m-worth-of-ev-makers-shares-after-q2-earnings-revea","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108198959","content_text":"On Wednesday, Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest made a significant move by buying shares of  Tesla Motors , despite the electric vehicle giant’s recent market challenges.The Tesla TradeArk Invest’s  ARK Next Generation Internation ETF  acquired 33,143 shares of Tesla, a move that came on the heels of a turbulent period for the company. The value of this trade, based on the closing price of $215.99 on the same day, is approximately $7.16 million.This purchase is particularly noteworthy given the context of Tesla’s recent performance. The company’s second-quarter financial results, reported on Tuesday, showed a revenue beat but an EPS miss.Furthermore, Tesla’s automotive revenue dropped 7% YoY to $19.9 billion, marking its second straight quarter of YoY sales declines. This was the first time the company had experienced consecutive quarters of declining sales volume. Despite these challenges, Ark Invest has shown confidence in Tesla’s long-term prospects.On Tuesday, Ark Invest sold nearly $3.7 million worth of Tesla shares in continuation of a recent trend.Other Key Trades:Ark Fintech Innovation ETF bought 1,059 shares of  MercadoLibreArk Fintech Innovation ETF sold shares of  Toast, Inc. ARK Genomic Revolution ETF bought shares of  10x Genomics, Inc. ARK Genomic Revolution ETF sold shares of  Teladoc Health Inc. ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF bought shares of  Oklo Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":246546665107472,"gmtCreate":1701213506506,"gmtModify":1701213510828,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"End of an era&nbsp;","listText":"End of an era&nbsp;","text":"End of an era","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/246546665107472","repostId":"2387912906","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981476579,"gmtCreate":1666588748791,"gmtModify":1676537773221,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"including GLJ inputs into your analysis swings u away from reality and affects the balance of your presentation...&nbsp;","listText":"including GLJ inputs into your analysis swings u away from reality and affects the balance of your presentation...&nbsp;","text":"including GLJ inputs into your analysis swings u away from reality and affects the balance of your presentation...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981476579","repostId":"1133583383","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133583383","pubTimestamp":1666582585,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133583383?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Accounting And Valuation Concerns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133583383","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn this article, I analyze recent reports from banks that have updated their price targets fo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>In this article, I analyze recent reports from banks that have updated their price targets for Tesla stock since the release of Q3 results.</li><li>BofA and Morgan Stanley are overly optimistic, in my view, while JPMorgan seems closest to reality.</li><li>GLJ Research&#39;s analysts give you 5 reasons to believe TSLA is artificially boosting its revenue numbers.</li><li>Waiting and watching as the price is exposed to the consequences of multiple contractions - which are logical today - does not look optimal, in my view.</li><li>This time, I rate Tesla stock as Hold.</li></ul><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>In late June 2022, I posted a pair trade idea in which I recommended buying Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and selling Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) stock short (in equal dollar amounts). My pitch was simple enough. Both companies look overvalued in terms of absolute multiples. Still, due to more efficient operational growth, Tesla should have experienced a much less noticeable multiple contraction than Lucid while receiving much more support from retail investors.</p><p>A few months have passed since then. The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) fell even lower, dragging the rest of the market with it, including the companies mentioned above. But my thesis was justified - the difference in the magnitude of the declines in TSLA and LCID would bring a potential investor +22.9% (gross, before deducting brokerage commissions for shorting LCID):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/876778b7ede509db5346250fe56fec97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha, Ycharts, author&#39;s notes</p><p>At the time, I recommended holding this deal until the end of the year. However, in my article today, I want to look at the recent banks&#39; equity research reports on Tesla&#39;s financial results. Let us take a look at them and try to assess how logical their forecasts and conclusions are and whether they should be trusted.</p><p>Bank of America - 3Q results look pretty good to us – first take [October 19]</p><p>Analysts John Murphy, CFA, John P. Babcock, and Federico Merendi reiterated a Neutral rating on Tesla with a price objective (PO) of $325 per share - that&#39;s 3.17% higher than their previous PO of $315.</p><p>Moreover, BofA said much the same thing as I did when I put forward my thesis in June - TSLA&#39;s self-funding status is a notable advantage over some startup competitors in the electric car space, but because its valuation is the result of optimistic projections for a long future (recall the 50% growth target), it will be quite difficult for the quotes to grow strongly in the near future.</p><p>However, why did the bank raise its TSLA price target anyway? The issue is how the actual results differed from what analysts had expected from the company:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4dc14a81b28e60a2032d559c526278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BofA, TSLA report, October 19</p><p>I can understand why the analysts were wrong in forecasting gross profit - the variance seems negligible. But to be wrong on operating expenses (OPEX) by 15% and on taxes by 38.8%? If Tesla really is not just faking its books - we will get into that later - but is working as we see in the statements, then the company&#39;s operating efficiency makes one sit up and take notice because even top analysts could not imagine how Elon Musk could save so much on OPEX this quarter.</p><p>BofA values the company using EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples, but $325/share is too optimistic a target in my opinion. Let us look at their logic. BofA analysts expect EV/EBITDA to be 41x in 2022, down 37.1% from 2021. At the same time, EBITDA growth will be 59.2% in 2022. This is such a sharp decline in the multiple against the backdrop of such a high growth rate in the underlying financial metric. In 2023, however, EBITDA is expected to grow by only 7% - many times less than in the previous year. However, the analysts&#39; forecast includes a much less modest contraction of 6.6% in 2023, which is not in line with the trend of recent years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146388aab7013b33a9f50032c16ec0f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BofA, TSLA report, with author&#39;s calculations and notes</p><p>In my view, the EV/EBITDA multiple in 2023 should be at least 30x, if not lower, if the multiple contraction continues - and it should, given lower growth forecasts and a generally higher interest rate environment - implying a 27% reduction in the multiple from 2022 to 2023. At EBITDA of $19.916 billion in 2023 (BofA&#39;s estimate), enterprise value should be about $600 billion - that&#39;s 5.5% below the current one.</p><p>Morgan Stanley - 3Q Margins Beat, But FY23 Outlook Still at Risk [October 19]</p><p>AnalystsAdam Jonas, CFA, Evan Silverberg, CFA, CPA, et al. released an update of their Overweight rating, having $350 per share as a new price objective - below its pre-split target of $1300(about $433 per share).</p><p>Morgan Stanley, like BofA, was wrong about growth in OPEX, interest expense, and stock-based compensation. The company&#39;s lower-than-expected CAPEX coupled with stronger EPS growth resulted in a 153.6% undervaluation of FCF:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d31a9c6b04a11e6fa0bfb86d24468c71\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>MS, TSLA report, October 19</p><p>The key takeaways from their analysis of TSLA&#39;s report:</p><ul><li>expected cost inflation related to logistics/shipping as well as adverse timing differences related to supplier payments given significant input cost inflation on the battery and non-battery side. That didn&#39;t happen;</li><li>If one were to inflation adjust the YoY moves in CAPEX and OPEX, Tesla&#39;s clearly doing more with less;</li><li>Supercharging revenue will most likely get above 10% of Tesla&#39;s total revenue within the next 12 to 18 months;</li><li>Production is ramping up at the 40-GWh Megapack factory in California - a solid win for the company, demonstrating its strength and focus on the battery front.</li></ul><p><b>Okay, but why did analysts lower their TSLA price target?</b></p><p>Here you have to look at the input data for their SOTP 6-component model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182723ae2d8888a7435a237b5408867c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>MS, TSLA report, October 19</p><blockquote>Our PT of $433 is comprised of 6 components:<b>(1)</b>$203/share for core Tesla Auto business on 8.6mm units in 2030, 8.5% WACC, 15x 2030 exit EBITDA multiple, exit EBITDA margin of 20%.<b>(2)</b>Tesla Mobility at $25 on DCF with ~500k cars at $1.7/mile by 2030.<b>(3)</b>Tesla as a 3rd party supplier at $44/share.<b>4)</b>Energy at $37/share,<b>5)</b>Insurance at $12/share, &amp;<b>6)</b>Network Services at $113, 25mm MAUs, $100 ARPU by 2030, 20% discount.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: Investing.com, author&#39;s adjustment for the split (3:1)</blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Segment / Date</b></td><td><p><b>Jun 16, 2022(rounded)</b></p></td><td><b>Now</b></td><td><b>Change</b></td></tr><tr><td>Core Tesla Auto business</td><td>$203</td><td>$287</td></tr><tr><td>Tesla Mobility</td><td>$25</td><td>$22</td><td>1.4%</td></tr><tr><td>3rd party supplier</td><td>$44</td><td>$27</td><td>-38.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Energy</td><td>$37</td><td>$31</td><td>-16.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Insurance</td><td>$12</td><td>$8</td><td>-35.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Network Services</td><td>$113</td><td>$75</td><td>-33.4%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Sum Of The Parts</b></td><td><b>$433</b></td><td><b>$450</b></td><td><b>4.6%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: Author&#39;s compilation</p><p>If you add up all the parts of the analysts&#39; outputs, it shows that their SOTP model does indeed show a price target of $453 per share - I suspect that the Morgan Stanley analysts mistyped their report and wrote $287 instead of $187 because the difference is exactly $100 while the WACC is higher and the sales volume is lower than before. Here&#39;s how the above table should most likely look like:</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Segment / Date</b></td><td><b>Jun 16, 2022 (rounded)</b></td><td><b>Now</b></td><td><b>Change</b></td></tr><tr><td>Core Tesla Auto business</td><td>$203</td><td>$187</td><td>-7.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Tesla Mobility</td><td>$25</td><td>$22</td><td>1.4%</td></tr><tr><td>3rd party supplier</td><td>$45</td><td>$27</td><td>-38.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Energy</td><td>$37</td><td>$31</td><td>-16.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Insurance</td><td>$12</td><td>$8</td><td>-35.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Network Services</td><td>$113</td><td>$75</td><td>-33.4%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Sum Of The Parts</b></td><td><b>$433</b></td><td><b>$350</b></td><td><b>-18.5%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: Author&#39;s compilation</p><p>If you look at how the analysts&#39; assumptions have changed, we see only 3 concrete changes here: 1) the number of vehicles produced in 2030 is now reduced by 0.9 million units (-10.5%); 2) the WACC is increased by 0.2% (8.7% vs. 8.5%); and 3) the exit EBITDA margin is increased from 20% to 21%. This applies directly to the main revenue stream (Core Tesla Auto business) - the assumptions for the other parts are not disclosed (I assume the WACC has been applied to them as well, considering that Tesla Mobility&#39;s DCF has decreased by 12.5% without any visible adjustments in inputs).</p><p>That is, broadly speaking, the entire decline in the target price (the top rightmost column above) is due to A) a slight slowdown in operations, and B) a slight 0.2% increase in WACC. At the same time, a new, more positive improvement in business margins has by no means kept the target price for TSLA from correcting. In my opinion, the WACC was not raised high enough by analysts and should have been raised by more than 1% instead of 0.2%. Why do I think so?</p><p><b>First,</b> the analysts had to account for higher betas, that mostly increased since their previous call (June 16, 2022):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a07a7f6dd7206ed566e9dcc98a2649\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Higher beta - higher WACC. Of course, it is possible that they took a 3-year coefficient, but then it would be cherry-picking. It is unlikely that the Morgan Stanley analysts did this (I really hope so).</p><p><b>The second</b> is the rising risk-free rate, which mostly corresponds to 10-year Treasuries yield, which (theoretically) have no credit risk. The rate has risen since June 15, 2022, from 3.292% to 4.274% at the time of writing. Effective 7-10 year yields on corporate bonds have jumped even higher since then:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63df41aa9b262fde5ad07913778940a5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p><b>The third point</b> that analysts may not have taken into account in their WACC calculation is the slowdown in economic growth in China and globally, which should have been reflected in the discount rate in the form of an additional premium. Since mid-June 2022, the geopolitical situation in the world has only gotten worse (in my opinion), and the forecast for global economic growth was just recently lowered by the IMF. Therefore, this premium should have been larger, if it was included in their calculations at all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ea24a9cde929b8b6ba9278044bd269\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>IMF, author&#39;s notes</p><p>If a minor 0.2% increase in WACC has led to such severe corrections in price targets for the company&#39;s various businesses, imagine how long the analysts&#39; model should run - apparently they predict all segments to 2030, using huge growth rates in their models. Even a slight deviation from these rates will cause the model to collapse. In my opinion, this is a serious risk for those who want to rely on the DCF calculations of Morgan Stanley&#39;s analysts.</p><p>JPMorgan - Trim Estimates and Price Target After Softer Trend in 3Q Volume &amp; Pricing [October 20]</p><p>AnalystsRyan Brinkman, Rajat Gupta, CFA, Manasvi Garg, et al. stick to an oppositional opinion concerning the other two banks above. They are Underweight Tesla with a price target of $150/share, revised down from $153/share, having the following reasoning:</p><blockquote>We are lowering our estimates and price target after Tesla reported modestly softer than expected 3Q22 results Wednesday after the close, featuring lower-than-consensus margin on lower-than-expected revenue. Average transaction prices rose strongly y/y, but to a level that was lower than expected, driving a -3% revenue miss given that deliveries were previously disclosed. The results will likely add to debates about demand destruction that ensued after 3Q deliveries tracked -5% below company-compiled consensus. Management itself reined in near-term growth expectations, now looking for just less than its original target of more than +50% unit growth this year vs. previous indication only that the target would be more difficult to achieve. We continue to see risk to guidance for +50% annual unit volume growth over time (in some years more, in some years less), including given higher prices, higher interest rates, an increasingly tapped-out consumer, and given the paucity of new model introductions, with Tesla&#39;s lineup essentially the same as at the start of 2021 after the last Model S &amp; X refresh, with the Cybertruck (originally slated for 2021) still on tap. Automotive gross margin of 26.8% missed Bloomberg consensus of 27.7%, with management citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher logistics costs. We remain cautious on valuation, particularly in the context of lofty unit volume growth expectations, and continue to see material downside risk to our December 2023 price target, which declines today to $150 from $153, on account of unchanged target multiples applied to our slightly lower estimates, which decline primarily on flow-through of 3Q&#39;s softer-than-expected trend in demand expressed in the form of lower transaction prices.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: JPMorgan&#39;s TSLA report, October 20</blockquote><p>Their price target methodology is less sophisticated than Morgan Stanley&#39;s one (and more reasonable, in my opinion, than that of BofA) and is predicated upon a 50/50 blend of DCF and 2025E-based multiples analysis (itself a blend of P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales).</p><p>And if you take a look at JPM&#39;s Key Figures table, theirs seem much more realistic - at least the analysts take into account a more reasonable multiple and margin contractions as Tesla expands its business and matures:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6bc5018373d282566815bd6816da0b6\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>JPMorgan, TSLA report, October 20</p><p>They propose to focus on equal weighting of 3 coefficients to find fair value (50% of the model) and DCF calculations for the remaining half. If they had focused solely on DCF, they would have received $129 per share on exit - and against a backdrop of rapidly growing FCF. However, FCF-based valuation has shown in practice how indifferent the market is to it concerning Tesla - just take a look at the stock rating history from Ryan Brinkman, the lead author of the above JPM report:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58a254263a2a3a5480f2c67ead96566c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TipRanks, Ryan Brinkman, October 21</p><p>I am not saying Ryan is wrong this time either - &#34;past performance is no guarantee of future performance&#34; applies in reverse as well, let us not forget that. However, I am skeptical about FCF as a driver for determining Tesla&#39;s intrinsic value - it is much more correct to look at multiples and their compression over time. The current state of the company&#39;s valuation is more in line with JPMorgan than BofA or MS - given the increasing risks of Tesla losing its 50% growth rate in 2023 and 2024, I think we are in for a bumpy ride, and the only opportunity for buy-and-hold investors, if you consider yourself one, is to hedge.</p><p>GLJ Research - the numbers TSLA reports are LIKELY NOT REAL [October 20]</p><p>One risk that has long been talked about and is unlikely to be taken seriously by experts is the possibility of falsified reporting. More and more people keep doubting that Tesla can grow such volumes based on sub-ten percent OPEX and CAPEX growth (you may have noticed that this was one of Morgan Stanley&#39;s bullish arguments).</p><p>Gordon Johnson from GLJ Research - ranked by Bloomberg among the top stock pickers in the steel, iron ore, graphite electrode, electric vehicle, and solar spaces since initiating coverage in 2008 - writes, that with 2 of its 4 plants operating at just ~10% capacity, TSLA&#39;s gross margins expansion from 25.0% to 26.61% (per Bloomberg) is not possible.</p><blockquote>In short, we believe the numbers TSLA reports are largely &#34;fiction,&#34; resulting from aggressive accounting applied via the Shanghai plant, among other &#34;tricks&#34; used. And, given modeling numbers that are &#34;fiction&#34; is impossible, this time (i.e., for 3Q22), we aren’t going to even try (we see LARGE incentive for E. Musk to be as aggressive as possible, from an accounting perspective, given he has ~$15B-$20B worth of shares still left to sell to close the Twitter buyout... by our calculation). That is, using one example of TSLA&#39;s many accounting shenanigans, while pretty much every other automaker includes R&amp;D in the gross profit they report, TSLA pushes this metric below the gross profit line, allowing it to claim industry leading margins; yet, when adjusting R&amp;D out of COGS for TSLA, TSLA’s margins rank 11th among global automakers according to Bloomberg.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: Gordon Johnson from GLJ Research</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88b14d65af952a9e91fd7bf618a44557\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg, GLJ Research</p><p>Mr. Johnson warns us - demand today is quite meager on all fronts, as evidenced by the company&#39;s own preliminary statistics and official government sources:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdab92dd02be42cc98d2eea0f9b03473\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GLJ Research LLC</p><p>GLJ Research&#39;s analysts give 5 reasons to believe TSLA is artificially boosting its revenue numbers:</p><ol><li>Revenues up 56% (YoY) amid expenses up only 2% (YoY);</li><li>CAPEX is flat (YoY) when construction of Berlin and Austin is done, which seems impossible. TSLA may be capitalizing more expenses than it should on the balance sheet, thus possibly overstating margins;</li><li>TSLA&#39;s SG&amp;A is still running at $1B/qtr, roughly the same as two years ago, despite selling 2x as many cars;</li><li>Gross margins staying up with 2 new factories open, making just a fraction of their vehicle capacity;</li><li>Inventory is up 98% (YoY) while sales up 56%. Inventory should keep pace with sales, not outpace it - unless you capitalize raw materials for inventory which you can&#39;t move and don&#39;t impair so as not to take a profit hit.</li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0ba728f76aeae0a3d1f51a7d7769e2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GLJ Research LLC</p><p>All this looks strange, but it looks even stranger that no one can clearly refute these arguments that support TSLA&#39;s balance sheet fraud. If you can - I am really interested, please share your take in the comments.</p><p><b>Bottom Line</b></p><p>In this article, I took a closer look at the banks&#39; recent analysis and reaction to Tesla&#39;s latest quarterly report. After reading and analyzing everything I had on hands, and also examining the banks&#39; methods of calculating their price targets, I conclude that JPM has come closest to the truth with a reasonable estimate of the multiple and margin contractions over the next 5 years.</p><p>Yes, JPM&#39;s history of &#34;sell&#34; ratings looks depressing - but what if they are right this time? What if Tesla is actually fudging its books to inflate margins and boost net income above consensus?</p><p>The risks to the company are increasing, and while I do not think Tesla is going to repeat Enron&#39;s story, I understand those who think Tesla is an overvalued company. However, it is far from the only company in the market, nor is it the most overvalued. Given the support from retail investors, and assuming that the company&#39;s operational growth continues (if it is a reality), I believe that long-term investors need to hedge against growing risks anyway. Methods can vary - selling puts, pair trading ideas like the one I wrote about earlier, tactical positioning, etc. Waiting and watching as the price is exposed to the consequences of multiple contractions - which are logical today - does not look optimal, in my view.</p><p><i>This time, I rate Tesla stock as Hold.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Accounting And Valuation Concerns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Accounting And Valuation Concerns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-24 11:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548158-tesla-accounting-and-valuation-concerns><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this article, I analyze recent reports from banks that have updated their price targets for Tesla stock since the release of Q3 results.BofA and Morgan Stanley are overly optimistic, in my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548158-tesla-accounting-and-valuation-concerns\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548158-tesla-accounting-and-valuation-concerns","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133583383","content_text":"SummaryIn this article, I analyze recent reports from banks that have updated their price targets for Tesla stock since the release of Q3 results.BofA and Morgan Stanley are overly optimistic, in my view, while JPMorgan seems closest to reality.GLJ Research's analysts give you 5 reasons to believe TSLA is artificially boosting its revenue numbers.Waiting and watching as the price is exposed to the consequences of multiple contractions - which are logical today - does not look optimal, in my view.This time, I rate Tesla stock as Hold.IntroductionIn late June 2022, I posted a pair trade idea in which I recommended buying Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and selling Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) stock short (in equal dollar amounts). My pitch was simple enough. Both companies look overvalued in terms of absolute multiples. Still, due to more efficient operational growth, Tesla should have experienced a much less noticeable multiple contraction than Lucid while receiving much more support from retail investors.A few months have passed since then. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell even lower, dragging the rest of the market with it, including the companies mentioned above. But my thesis was justified - the difference in the magnitude of the declines in TSLA and LCID would bring a potential investor +22.9% (gross, before deducting brokerage commissions for shorting LCID):Seeking Alpha, Ycharts, author's notesAt the time, I recommended holding this deal until the end of the year. However, in my article today, I want to look at the recent banks' equity research reports on Tesla's financial results. Let us take a look at them and try to assess how logical their forecasts and conclusions are and whether they should be trusted.Bank of America - 3Q results look pretty good to us – first take [October 19]Analysts John Murphy, CFA, John P. Babcock, and Federico Merendi reiterated a Neutral rating on Tesla with a price objective (PO) of $325 per share - that's 3.17% higher than their previous PO of $315.Moreover, BofA said much the same thing as I did when I put forward my thesis in June - TSLA's self-funding status is a notable advantage over some startup competitors in the electric car space, but because its valuation is the result of optimistic projections for a long future (recall the 50% growth target), it will be quite difficult for the quotes to grow strongly in the near future.However, why did the bank raise its TSLA price target anyway? The issue is how the actual results differed from what analysts had expected from the company:BofA, TSLA report, October 19I can understand why the analysts were wrong in forecasting gross profit - the variance seems negligible. But to be wrong on operating expenses (OPEX) by 15% and on taxes by 38.8%? If Tesla really is not just faking its books - we will get into that later - but is working as we see in the statements, then the company's operating efficiency makes one sit up and take notice because even top analysts could not imagine how Elon Musk could save so much on OPEX this quarter.BofA values the company using EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples, but $325/share is too optimistic a target in my opinion. Let us look at their logic. BofA analysts expect EV/EBITDA to be 41x in 2022, down 37.1% from 2021. At the same time, EBITDA growth will be 59.2% in 2022. This is such a sharp decline in the multiple against the backdrop of such a high growth rate in the underlying financial metric. In 2023, however, EBITDA is expected to grow by only 7% - many times less than in the previous year. However, the analysts' forecast includes a much less modest contraction of 6.6% in 2023, which is not in line with the trend of recent years:BofA, TSLA report, with author's calculations and notesIn my view, the EV/EBITDA multiple in 2023 should be at least 30x, if not lower, if the multiple contraction continues - and it should, given lower growth forecasts and a generally higher interest rate environment - implying a 27% reduction in the multiple from 2022 to 2023. At EBITDA of $19.916 billion in 2023 (BofA's estimate), enterprise value should be about $600 billion - that's 5.5% below the current one.Morgan Stanley - 3Q Margins Beat, But FY23 Outlook Still at Risk [October 19]AnalystsAdam Jonas, CFA, Evan Silverberg, CFA, CPA, et al. released an update of their Overweight rating, having $350 per share as a new price objective - below its pre-split target of $1300(about $433 per share).Morgan Stanley, like BofA, was wrong about growth in OPEX, interest expense, and stock-based compensation. The company's lower-than-expected CAPEX coupled with stronger EPS growth resulted in a 153.6% undervaluation of FCF:MS, TSLA report, October 19The key takeaways from their analysis of TSLA's report:expected cost inflation related to logistics/shipping as well as adverse timing differences related to supplier payments given significant input cost inflation on the battery and non-battery side. That didn't happen;If one were to inflation adjust the YoY moves in CAPEX and OPEX, Tesla's clearly doing more with less;Supercharging revenue will most likely get above 10% of Tesla's total revenue within the next 12 to 18 months;Production is ramping up at the 40-GWh Megapack factory in California - a solid win for the company, demonstrating its strength and focus on the battery front.Okay, but why did analysts lower their TSLA price target?Here you have to look at the input data for their SOTP 6-component model:MS, TSLA report, October 19Our PT of $433 is comprised of 6 components:(1)$203/share for core Tesla Auto business on 8.6mm units in 2030, 8.5% WACC, 15x 2030 exit EBITDA multiple, exit EBITDA margin of 20%.(2)Tesla Mobility at $25 on DCF with ~500k cars at $1.7/mile by 2030.(3)Tesla as a 3rd party supplier at $44/share.4)Energy at $37/share,5)Insurance at $12/share, &6)Network Services at $113, 25mm MAUs, $100 ARPU by 2030, 20% discount.Source: Investing.com, author's adjustment for the split (3:1)Segment / DateJun 16, 2022(rounded)NowChangeCore Tesla Auto business$203$287Tesla Mobility$25$221.4%3rd party supplier$44$27-38.2%Energy$37$31-16.2%Insurance$12$8-35.1%Network Services$113$75-33.4%Sum Of The Parts$433$4504.6%Source: Author's compilationIf you add up all the parts of the analysts' outputs, it shows that their SOTP model does indeed show a price target of $453 per share - I suspect that the Morgan Stanley analysts mistyped their report and wrote $287 instead of $187 because the difference is exactly $100 while the WACC is higher and the sales volume is lower than before. Here's how the above table should most likely look like:Segment / DateJun 16, 2022 (rounded)NowChangeCore Tesla Auto business$203$187-7.7%Tesla Mobility$25$221.4%3rd party supplier$45$27-38.2%Energy$37$31-16.2%Insurance$12$8-35.1%Network Services$113$75-33.4%Sum Of The Parts$433$350-18.5%Source: Author's compilationIf you look at how the analysts' assumptions have changed, we see only 3 concrete changes here: 1) the number of vehicles produced in 2030 is now reduced by 0.9 million units (-10.5%); 2) the WACC is increased by 0.2% (8.7% vs. 8.5%); and 3) the exit EBITDA margin is increased from 20% to 21%. This applies directly to the main revenue stream (Core Tesla Auto business) - the assumptions for the other parts are not disclosed (I assume the WACC has been applied to them as well, considering that Tesla Mobility's DCF has decreased by 12.5% without any visible adjustments in inputs).That is, broadly speaking, the entire decline in the target price (the top rightmost column above) is due to A) a slight slowdown in operations, and B) a slight 0.2% increase in WACC. At the same time, a new, more positive improvement in business margins has by no means kept the target price for TSLA from correcting. In my opinion, the WACC was not raised high enough by analysts and should have been raised by more than 1% instead of 0.2%. Why do I think so?First, the analysts had to account for higher betas, that mostly increased since their previous call (June 16, 2022):Data by YChartsHigher beta - higher WACC. Of course, it is possible that they took a 3-year coefficient, but then it would be cherry-picking. It is unlikely that the Morgan Stanley analysts did this (I really hope so).The second is the rising risk-free rate, which mostly corresponds to 10-year Treasuries yield, which (theoretically) have no credit risk. The rate has risen since June 15, 2022, from 3.292% to 4.274% at the time of writing. Effective 7-10 year yields on corporate bonds have jumped even higher since then:Data by YChartsThe third point that analysts may not have taken into account in their WACC calculation is the slowdown in economic growth in China and globally, which should have been reflected in the discount rate in the form of an additional premium. Since mid-June 2022, the geopolitical situation in the world has only gotten worse (in my opinion), and the forecast for global economic growth was just recently lowered by the IMF. Therefore, this premium should have been larger, if it was included in their calculations at all.IMF, author's notesIf a minor 0.2% increase in WACC has led to such severe corrections in price targets for the company's various businesses, imagine how long the analysts' model should run - apparently they predict all segments to 2030, using huge growth rates in their models. Even a slight deviation from these rates will cause the model to collapse. In my opinion, this is a serious risk for those who want to rely on the DCF calculations of Morgan Stanley's analysts.JPMorgan - Trim Estimates and Price Target After Softer Trend in 3Q Volume & Pricing [October 20]AnalystsRyan Brinkman, Rajat Gupta, CFA, Manasvi Garg, et al. stick to an oppositional opinion concerning the other two banks above. They are Underweight Tesla with a price target of $150/share, revised down from $153/share, having the following reasoning:We are lowering our estimates and price target after Tesla reported modestly softer than expected 3Q22 results Wednesday after the close, featuring lower-than-consensus margin on lower-than-expected revenue. Average transaction prices rose strongly y/y, but to a level that was lower than expected, driving a -3% revenue miss given that deliveries were previously disclosed. The results will likely add to debates about demand destruction that ensued after 3Q deliveries tracked -5% below company-compiled consensus. Management itself reined in near-term growth expectations, now looking for just less than its original target of more than +50% unit growth this year vs. previous indication only that the target would be more difficult to achieve. We continue to see risk to guidance for +50% annual unit volume growth over time (in some years more, in some years less), including given higher prices, higher interest rates, an increasingly tapped-out consumer, and given the paucity of new model introductions, with Tesla's lineup essentially the same as at the start of 2021 after the last Model S & X refresh, with the Cybertruck (originally slated for 2021) still on tap. Automotive gross margin of 26.8% missed Bloomberg consensus of 27.7%, with management citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher logistics costs. We remain cautious on valuation, particularly in the context of lofty unit volume growth expectations, and continue to see material downside risk to our December 2023 price target, which declines today to $150 from $153, on account of unchanged target multiples applied to our slightly lower estimates, which decline primarily on flow-through of 3Q's softer-than-expected trend in demand expressed in the form of lower transaction prices.Source: JPMorgan's TSLA report, October 20Their price target methodology is less sophisticated than Morgan Stanley's one (and more reasonable, in my opinion, than that of BofA) and is predicated upon a 50/50 blend of DCF and 2025E-based multiples analysis (itself a blend of P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales).And if you take a look at JPM's Key Figures table, theirs seem much more realistic - at least the analysts take into account a more reasonable multiple and margin contractions as Tesla expands its business and matures:JPMorgan, TSLA report, October 20They propose to focus on equal weighting of 3 coefficients to find fair value (50% of the model) and DCF calculations for the remaining half. If they had focused solely on DCF, they would have received $129 per share on exit - and against a backdrop of rapidly growing FCF. However, FCF-based valuation has shown in practice how indifferent the market is to it concerning Tesla - just take a look at the stock rating history from Ryan Brinkman, the lead author of the above JPM report:TipRanks, Ryan Brinkman, October 21I am not saying Ryan is wrong this time either - \"past performance is no guarantee of future performance\" applies in reverse as well, let us not forget that. However, I am skeptical about FCF as a driver for determining Tesla's intrinsic value - it is much more correct to look at multiples and their compression over time. The current state of the company's valuation is more in line with JPMorgan than BofA or MS - given the increasing risks of Tesla losing its 50% growth rate in 2023 and 2024, I think we are in for a bumpy ride, and the only opportunity for buy-and-hold investors, if you consider yourself one, is to hedge.GLJ Research - the numbers TSLA reports are LIKELY NOT REAL [October 20]One risk that has long been talked about and is unlikely to be taken seriously by experts is the possibility of falsified reporting. More and more people keep doubting that Tesla can grow such volumes based on sub-ten percent OPEX and CAPEX growth (you may have noticed that this was one of Morgan Stanley's bullish arguments).Gordon Johnson from GLJ Research - ranked by Bloomberg among the top stock pickers in the steel, iron ore, graphite electrode, electric vehicle, and solar spaces since initiating coverage in 2008 - writes, that with 2 of its 4 plants operating at just ~10% capacity, TSLA's gross margins expansion from 25.0% to 26.61% (per Bloomberg) is not possible.In short, we believe the numbers TSLA reports are largely \"fiction,\" resulting from aggressive accounting applied via the Shanghai plant, among other \"tricks\" used. And, given modeling numbers that are \"fiction\" is impossible, this time (i.e., for 3Q22), we aren’t going to even try (we see LARGE incentive for E. Musk to be as aggressive as possible, from an accounting perspective, given he has ~$15B-$20B worth of shares still left to sell to close the Twitter buyout... by our calculation). That is, using one example of TSLA's many accounting shenanigans, while pretty much every other automaker includes R&D in the gross profit they report, TSLA pushes this metric below the gross profit line, allowing it to claim industry leading margins; yet, when adjusting R&D out of COGS for TSLA, TSLA’s margins rank 11th among global automakers according to Bloomberg.Source: Gordon Johnson from GLJ ResearchBloomberg, GLJ ResearchMr. Johnson warns us - demand today is quite meager on all fronts, as evidenced by the company's own preliminary statistics and official government sources:GLJ Research LLCGLJ Research's analysts give 5 reasons to believe TSLA is artificially boosting its revenue numbers:Revenues up 56% (YoY) amid expenses up only 2% (YoY);CAPEX is flat (YoY) when construction of Berlin and Austin is done, which seems impossible. TSLA may be capitalizing more expenses than it should on the balance sheet, thus possibly overstating margins;TSLA's SG&A is still running at $1B/qtr, roughly the same as two years ago, despite selling 2x as many cars;Gross margins staying up with 2 new factories open, making just a fraction of their vehicle capacity;Inventory is up 98% (YoY) while sales up 56%. Inventory should keep pace with sales, not outpace it - unless you capitalize raw materials for inventory which you can't move and don't impair so as not to take a profit hit.GLJ Research LLCAll this looks strange, but it looks even stranger that no one can clearly refute these arguments that support TSLA's balance sheet fraud. If you can - I am really interested, please share your take in the comments.Bottom LineIn this article, I took a closer look at the banks' recent analysis and reaction to Tesla's latest quarterly report. After reading and analyzing everything I had on hands, and also examining the banks' methods of calculating their price targets, I conclude that JPM has come closest to the truth with a reasonable estimate of the multiple and margin contractions over the next 5 years.Yes, JPM's history of \"sell\" ratings looks depressing - but what if they are right this time? What if Tesla is actually fudging its books to inflate margins and boost net income above consensus?The risks to the company are increasing, and while I do not think Tesla is going to repeat Enron's story, I understand those who think Tesla is an overvalued company. However, it is far from the only company in the market, nor is it the most overvalued. Given the support from retail investors, and assuming that the company's operational growth continues (if it is a reality), I believe that long-term investors need to hedge against growing risks anyway. Methods can vary - selling puts, pair trading ideas like the one I wrote about earlier, tactical positioning, etc. Waiting and watching as the price is exposed to the consequences of multiple contractions - which are logical today - does not look optimal, in my view.This time, I rate Tesla stock as Hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912145677,"gmtCreate":1664780682599,"gmtModify":1676537507396,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow... what a super negative piece linking all problems to Tsla stock pricedemise imminently ... believe ? Very hard&nbsp;","listText":"Wow... what a super negative piece linking all problems to Tsla stock pricedemise imminently ... believe ? Very hard&nbsp;","text":"Wow... what a super negative piece linking all problems to Tsla stock pricedemise imminently ... believe ? Very hard","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912145677","repostId":"1137600007","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996685521,"gmtCreate":1661161715966,"gmtModify":1676536464520,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Are you short Tesla?","listText":"Are you short Tesla?","text":"Are you short Tesla?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996685521","repostId":"2261515660","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2261515660","pubTimestamp":1661160166,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261515660?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-22 17:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Much Does FSD Impact Tesla's Valuation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261515660","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla recently released Full Self-Drive with a lot of hype and subsequent criticism.Elon Musk recently stated the FSD is the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or being worth basically zero.Does FSD work?These questions are explored in this article.It uses my personal experience as a beta tester for Tesla FSD.It also describes the underlying FSD technology and its advantages and limitations compared to other alternative approaches.Aranga87Tesla  is currently valued at alm","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla recently released Full Self-Drive with a lot of hype and subsequent criticism.</li><li>Elon Musk recently stated the FSD is the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or being worth basically zero.</li><li>Does FSD work? What could it be worth? These questions are explored in this article.</li><li>It uses my personal experience as a beta tester for Tesla FSD.</li><li>It also describes the underlying FSD technology and its advantages and limitations compared to other alternative approaches.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e1a47642e6637b1b7549b279eb8ad1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Aranga87</span></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is currently valued at almost a trillion dollars. So, the trillion-dollar question is how much of that valuation comes from Tesla&#39;s Full Self-Drive software and how much more could it increase Tesla&#39;s valuation?</p><p>According to Elon Musk, asquoted in Business Insider on June 16th, from an interview on Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, Tesla&#39;s valuation is determined by FSD:</p><blockquote>&#34;But the overwhelming focus is on solving full self-driving. That&#39;s essential. It&#39;s really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero.&#34;</blockquote><p>Musk has also predicted that Tesla will have a million FSD beta subscribers by the end of this year (electrek 7/20/22). Do that math! One million subscribers at $12,000 equal $12 billion of pure profit. At Tesla&#39;s current P/E of 100X, that would add $1.2 trillion in value.</p><p>Let&#39;s look at the value and utility of FSD. In addition to doing strategic analysis, I&#39;m a beta tester for Tesla Full Self-Drive and will share my observations.</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Levels Of Autonomous Driving</b></p><p>Tesla offers three autonomous driving packages:</p><p><b>Autopilot</b></p><p>Autopilot, which comes standard with all Teslas, as it does with many competitive models, includes the following functionality and features:</p><ul><li><b>Traffic-Aware Cruise Control</b>: Matches the car&#39;s speed to the surrounding traffic.</li><li><b>Autosteer</b>: Assists in steering within clearly marked lanes and uses traffic-aware cruise control.</li></ul><p><b>Enhanced Autopilot</b></p><p>In addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot also includes:</p><ul><li><b>Navigate on Autopilot</b>: Actively guides the car from a highway&#39;s on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting lane changes, navigating interchanges, automatically engaging the turn signal, and taking the correct exit.</li><li><b>Auto Lane Change</b>: Assists in moving to an adjacent lane on the highway when Autosteer is engaged.</li><li><b>Autopark</b>: Helps automatically parallel or perpendicularly park the car with a single touch.</li><li><b>Summon</b>: Moves the car in and out of a tight space using the mobile app or key.</li><li><b>Smart Summon</b>: The car will navigate more complex environments and parking spaces, maneuvering around objects as necessary to find the driver in a parking lot.</li></ul><p><b>Full Self-Driving Capability</b></p><p>In addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot and Enhanced Autopilot, the Full Self-Driving Capability also includes:</p><ul><li><b>Traffic and Stop Sign Control (Beta)</b>: Identifies stop signs and traffic lights and automatically slows the car to a stop upon approach, with active supervision.</li><li><b>Recently Added</b>: Autosteer on city streets.</li></ul><p>Tesla makes it clear on its website (but not in the names it uses) that the currently enabled Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot, and Full Self-Driving features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. It states that full autonomy will depend on achieving reliability far above human drivers, as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval. As Tesla&#39;s Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot, and Full Self-Driving capabilities evolve, cars will continuously be upgraded through over-the-air software updates. There is still an open question about cars needing future hardware and sensor upgrades.</p><p>Tesla charges an additional fee of $6,000 for Enhanced Autopilot and $12,000 for Full Self-Driving. There is also an option to pay $199 monthly for FSD. FSD is only available as a beta test version, and the city streets capability was just recently added.</p><p><b>How Well Does FSD Work?</b></p><p>Tesla FSD is the first vehicle available at retail (not including AV fleets like Cruise and Waymo) that can autonomously turn corners and stop and go at traffic signals. It&#39;s impressive, but nevertheless, it isn&#39;t full self-drive in the definition of that term. And there are still many flaws in the way it operates.</p><p>There has been a lot of criticism about FSD lately, with articles about tests showing a Tesla with FSD running over a dummy child, followed by rebuttals from Tesla fans who tested it on their own (or borrowed) children to show that it does stop. Even Ralph Nader came out of retirement (since the 1960&#39;s<i>Unsafe At Any Speed</i>) to call on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to recall FSD to &#34;prevent the growing deaths and injuries.&#34;</p><p>I&#39;m not going to repeat these discussions. There is plenty to read about these. Instead, I will share some of my real experiences beta testing FSD. I&#39;ve been driving a Tesla Model 3 for more than three years. I&#39;ve driven it thousands of miles in Enhanced Autopilot mode. Recently, I&#39;ve been driving FSD with autosteer on city streets. (Maybe that opportunity will be removed after this article?)</p><p>First, FSD can now make left-hand and right-hand turns, stop at traffic signs and lights, start driving on its own when the light changes, and change speed automatically based on speed limits. It&#39;s impressive. It&#39;s fun but stressful to drive/ride. Here are some of the problems I experienced:</p><ul><li>Many of the turns are clumsy. To turn right, it frequently drifts to the left into the other lane before maneuvering the right-hand turn.</li><li>On one left-hand turn, it cut deeply across one of the oncoming lanes on the road it was turning into. It couldn&#39;t tell that three lanes were coming in that direction because its vision was blocked by cars in the first two lanes. It (I) was almost hit by a car coming up in the lane it cut into.</li><li>It drives erratically on roads with no painted lines. To its credit, FSD does estimate where the road ends even without lines, but then it struggles to position itself on the right side of the road. In one case, where there weren&#39;t any painted lines, but there was an apron on the side of the road, it would try to center itself on the apron instead of the road.</li><li>Enhanced Autopilot and FSD are two distinct software platforms. Tesla plans to merge them in an upcoming release. However, for now, the hand-off from one to the other is clumsy. Previously with Enhanced Autopilot, when it exited the highway, it would force me to take control at the end of the exit ramp. Now it just gets confused and comes to an abrupt stop at the end of the ramp because it goes straight where the exit splits to the left and right.</li><li>Once, it tried to turn right with an oncoming car and would have hit it. Not sure why it did that.</li><li>Sometimes it doesn&#39;t read a speed limit sign and continues to use the previous speed limit.</li><li>It gets confused at right-on-red turns. It hesitates, then tries to jump into too small of a gap between oncoming cars. At one intersection, it attempted to turn right-on-red when it didn&#39;t recognize a no-right-turn-on-red sign posted across the intersection.</li><li>A couple of times, it tried to go through a stop sign because it didn&#39;t register the sign in time. These are intersections where the stop sign is far to the right of the turning lane because of a large bicycle lane or extra lane width. It only recognized the sign as it went through the intersection and then stopped abruptly in the middle of the intersection.</li><li>Driving on a rotary/roundabout. Nope. It can&#39;t do it. Don&#39;t try it. There are three unmarked rotary lanes with the protocol to weave inside and outside as you approach your exit. This is too advanced.</li><li>It does identify pedestrians. I wish it would go wider and slower around them, though. Remember, this is a silent EV that people don&#39;t hear. It frequently identifies multiple people as one and golf bags as people, but these are not big problems. One time it stopped abruptly because it thought pedestrians walking on the sidewalk would try to cross the street when they weren&#39;t.</li><li>It automatically drives at the speed limit, which is sometimes too slow and sometimes too fast. For example, on a winding road, the speed limit is 30 MPH. That is too slow for the straight sections, which isn&#39;t much of a problem except for the frustrated trailing cars. But at some curves, 30 MPH is too fast. Experienced drivers intuitively know to slow down approaching those curves, but Tesla FSD tries to navigate the curve at 30 MPH -- and it doesn&#39;t. It veers into the oncoming lane and sometimes stops abruptly if there is an oncoming car.</li><li>The visualization system is much better with FSD. It&#39;s cool. It recognizes the edge of the road, not just the painted lines. It doesn&#39;t always recognize objects correctly. The other day I drove right through a tractor-trailer or just the image of one created by the shadow from my garage. It doesn&#39;t recognize some types of emergency vehicles. It interprets the flashing lights as backup lights or turn signals. I wish it would add color to the visualization, but that is too much for the computer&#39;s processing power.</li><li>It stops suddenly when a car coming in the other direction on a curve appears to be approaching you.</li></ul><p>Despite all of its flaws, FSD is still impressive technology. It&#39;s a real novelty to take people for a ride in it. The panic on their faces is priceless. Is it safe? Well, maybe, as long as you <b>really</b> pay attention to how it is driving and take control of it before it causes an accident. And it will improve with software upgrades. Using Autopilot for highway driving is more relaxing than driving yourself. You need to pay attention, but very little happens that the car doesn&#39;t control appropriately. FSD, on the other hand, is more stressful than driving yourself. It would be best if you worried at every turn, every curve in the road, every traffic light or stop sign, and every pedestrian you pass. In city driving, this is constant. You need to override FSD frequently.</p><p>In addition to the question about safety, two critical strategic questions will determine the success of FSD for Tesla. The first is understanding if the problems like the ones I mentioned can be solved by updated software or are due to a fundamental limitation of Tesla&#39;s technology approach. The second is deciding if FSD is worth $12,000.</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Autonomous Driving Technology Platform</b></p><p>There are several alternative approaches to autonomous driving, each using a different technology platform. These autonomous driving platforms have different costs and limitations. I go into these in detail in my books on autonomous driving, but I&#39;ll try to summarize the two primary ones.</p><p><b>Camera-Only Based System</b></p><p>The first autonomous driving approach uses a system with cameras to identify what is around the vehicle and where it is within lane markings. This is the approach used by Tesla with eight monochrome cameras of different focal lengths around the vehicle. The way this system works is that the cameras identify what is ahead and around the vehicle. It uses lane markings to position the vehicle on the road. The cameras also identify other vehicles, stationary objects, and pedestrians. The Tesla onboard computer characterizes these objects based on shape, size, and motion. It then determines the vehicle&#39;s path, acceleration, and stopping.</p><p>This autonomous driving approach is used in Tesla&#39;s Enhanced Autopilot, as it is in other cars for semi-autonomous highway driving. These work very well on straight highways and roads where there is no need to turn corners. The Mercedes Distronic and GM Super Cruise are similar systems. I&#39;ve driven with the Mercedes system for thousands of miles in addition to the Tesla, and I found the Mercedes system to be smoother.</p><p>The big technical question is: Is the camera-only approach sufficient for city and rural driving, where it needs to turn corners, stop at traffic signals, and interact with pedestrians? That is what Tesla is trying to do with FSD.</p><p><b>Camera System Combined with High-Definition Maps</b></p><p>The second approach uses a similar camera-based system with other sensors. But, it importantly adds another system with a detailed high-definition map and lidar to precisely position the vehicle within that map.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be00e54940c892e0edb88da0f05e2cb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sample High-Definition Map (FutureCar)</span></p><p>HD maps (illustrated in the photo above) provide three primary sets of information. The first is the actual 3D representation of the road and its related features like stop signs, traffic signals, lane markings, crosswalks, curb heights, etc. These features are measured with centimeter-level accuracy. The second interprets what each such sign, light, and marking means. And the third outlines the optimal drive paths the AV can follow smoothly. Sensors on the AV, especially lidar, identify where the AV is in the real world and matches it precisely to the HD map. It can then use the HD map information to guide it.</p><p>In addition, to the HD map system, these vehicles also have cameras and other sensors to identify all dynamic objects around them, such as vehicles, pedestrians, etc.</p><p><b>Pros and cons of the two approaches</b></p><p>The camera-only approach has two significant advantages. It is cheaper and not restricted to areas defined in the HD map. The disadvantage is that it might not work for city and rural autonomous driving, where it needs to turn corners, merge with traffic, and follow traffic signals. So it might not be capable of fully driverless operation.</p><p>Let&#39;s consider some of my experiences with Tesla FSD discussed earlier. Many of these can be improved with software changes but not all of them.</p><ul><li>For example, the left-hand turn where it could not visually identify that there were three lanes, so it assumed two lanes because it could see cars stopped in those lanes. It then turned into the third lane because it thought it was the correct lane, but there was an oncoming car. The correct lane for the direction it was turning was the next. A system with an HD map would have identified the three lanes and provided the correct turning radius.</li><li>The examples where the stop sign was not visible to the camera would not have been a problem for the HD map system because it would be identified on the map. FSD just didn&#39;t see it in its field of view.</li><li>The problem of excessive speed on upcoming curves might be able to be addressed with longer-distance cameras but might not be reliable in all cases. The curves would be fully identified with an HD map, and the AV would be instructed to reduce speed as it approaches the curve.</li></ul><p>These limitations could keep Tesla FSD from being truly driverless and unable to dispatch a Tesla vehicle to drive on its own with no driver to take control. This would limit its value, as we will discuss below.</p><p>The other approach, the HD map system, can be fully autonomous but only within the mapped area, generally referred to as geofenced. That is why it&#39;s the system of choice for what I refer to as sufficiently autonomous driving. An AV can reliably drive from one point to another along a predefined route. The HD map system will be used for fleets autonomously driving specific routes. The fleets will test their AVs on the routes over and over to make sure they function safely.</p><p>These will be the first three implementations of autonomous driving, with significant launches expected in the next two years:</p><ul><li><b>Autonomous Ride-Hailing</b>. Waymo (GOOG) is already operating in Scottsdale, and Cruise (GM) is operational in San Francisco. To better understand this market and technology, see:Advantages GM Cruise Has Over Uber.</li><li><b>Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking</b>. See Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking: 3 Pure Play Investment Opportunities.</li><li><b>Autonomous Home Delivery.</b>There are several pilot projects around the country, and Nuro is developing a special AV delivery vehicle.</li></ul><p><b>How Valuable Is Tesla FSD?</b></p><p>So, how valuable is Tesla&#39;s Full Self-Drive? Let&#39;s look at it in several ways.</p><p>Elon Musk&#39;s two statements at the beginning of this article frame the value: Tesla is worthless without it, and with it, it will provide $12 billion of incremental profit annually. However, sometimes Elon Musk exaggerates things (ask Manchester United). From a practical analysis, neither of these is most likely correct.</p><p>In Tesla&#39;s recent annual meeting (Tesla 8/4/22 Annual Meeting),Elon Musk discussed his view on FSD. He made an important observation that cars today sit idle most of the time, typically used only 12 hours per week. When autonomous, the utility can increase to 50-60 hours per week. The cost is relatively the same. He envisions Tesla vehicles to be fully autonomous through FSD, and those owners will be able to make money by sharing their cars the way Airbnb and Uber work. He believes that assuming this, Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world.</p><p>However, this assumes that FSD will be completely driverless.</p><p>Tesla recently cited that it had 100,000 people authorized to use FSD and that they drove 10 million miles last month. This is an interesting data point because that&#39;s an average of only 100 miles of FSD per person per month, which equates to a cost of $2-$3 per mile for FSD, depending on how much was paid for FSD. For most people, city driving miles are much lower than highway driving. If FSD is only a convenience feature for a small portion of the driving and not truly driverless, then for many, it&#39;s too expensive an option at $12,000. And this assumes that it works sufficiently.</p><p>So, the most significant value of FSD comes if it is fully driverless and Tesla can create a virtual fleet from customer cars that would be competitive with Cruise, Waymo, Argo, Aurora, Motional, and possibly Apple. This isn&#39;t likely in the near future. But maybe there is another alternative.</p><p><b>Recommendation For Tesla</b></p><p>However, there is another way for Tesla to get value from its FSD technology. It doesn&#39;t need to (and can&#39;t) make the jump to driverless right away. Here&#39;s what it could do:</p><ul><li>Rename this release Limited Self-Driving. In addition to enabling the name FSD to be used for a future release, it would diminish many of the FSD complaints.</li><li>Keep it as a beta test program for longer -- at least another year. And request feedback more directly from its users.</li><li>Require the driver to be hands-on and have the system turn control back to the driver immediately in certain situations. An example is when it gets to an intersection with a red traffic signal and is turning right, give control back to the driver with the question &#34;turn right on red?&#34; This would enable the driver to decide if it&#39;s safe to turn right or not. It would also avoid the risk I mentioned previously of not seeing a no-turn-on-red sign. There are other similar situations such as turning left on an intersection where the line markings are not clear. This could be implemented similar to Enhanced Autopilot where the vehicle asks drivers if they want to initiate lane changes. Put in many of these cases initially, but gradually eliminate them as the software improves.</li><li>After beta testing, price the Limited Self-Driving feature at $6,000 instead of $12,000. The higher price could be used when true FSD is achieved. This would probably require reducing the Enhanced Autopilot feature price too. It may mean refunding some previously paid fees, but that&#39;s not a big deal.</li></ul><p>This approach would provide a safer way forward for Tesla, even though it&#39;s not as dramatic and may not be Elon Musk&#39;s style. It would enable Tesla to still get additional revenue/profit from its technology, with probably more customers buying it at $6,000 than at $12,000. It would mean several years of Limited Self-Drive with FSD deferred until the future. Tesla could still be the first to offer driverless fully-autonomous cars at retail in the future. However, most likely it would be well behind Waymo, Cruise, and others with autonomous ride-hailing. It&#39;s an issue of strategic priorities, having a feasible core strategic vision.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>There are several diverse outcomes on the value of FSD.</p><ul><li>It could have no value if authorities shut it down for safety reasons, and/or it proves to be unsafe with too many accidents. It&#39;s possible that this could even have negative value if it damages Tesla&#39;s reputation.</li><li>It could have additional near-term value to Tesla if released as a Limited Self-Driving alternative, along with continued longer-term value if it becomes the first fully autonomous car sold at retail.</li><li>It could have tremendous value if it becomes fully driverless in the immediate future and competes in the autonomous ride-hailing market. But I think this is a long-shot.</li></ul><p>Analysts don&#39;t seem to value FSD much in their projections, although Tesla does not break out Autopilot or FSD revenue yet. (Note: Elon Musk criticizes analyst forecasts because they don&#39;t even drive a Tesla.) ARK Invest puts significant value on FSD with autonomous ride-hailing in its forecasts. Many Tesla fans and retail investors are ecstatic about FSD.</p><p>In any case, the progress of FSD should be watched closely over the next few months by all Tesla investors.</p><p>Note: The price for Tesla Inc.’s Full Self-Driving system will rise to $15,000 in North America, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk tweeted Sunday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Much Does FSD Impact Tesla's Valuation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Much Does FSD Impact Tesla's Valuation?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-22 17:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536052-how-much-does-fsd-impact-tesla-stock-valuation><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla recently released Full Self-Drive with a lot of hype and subsequent criticism.Elon Musk recently stated the FSD is the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or being worth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536052-how-much-does-fsd-impact-tesla-stock-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536052-how-much-does-fsd-impact-tesla-stock-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2261515660","content_text":"SummaryTesla recently released Full Self-Drive with a lot of hype and subsequent criticism.Elon Musk recently stated the FSD is the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or being worth basically zero.Does FSD work? What could it be worth? These questions are explored in this article.It uses my personal experience as a beta tester for Tesla FSD.It also describes the underlying FSD technology and its advantages and limitations compared to other alternative approaches.Aranga87Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is currently valued at almost a trillion dollars. So, the trillion-dollar question is how much of that valuation comes from Tesla's Full Self-Drive software and how much more could it increase Tesla's valuation?According to Elon Musk, asquoted in Business Insider on June 16th, from an interview on Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, Tesla's valuation is determined by FSD:\"But the overwhelming focus is on solving full self-driving. That's essential. It's really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero.\"Musk has also predicted that Tesla will have a million FSD beta subscribers by the end of this year (electrek 7/20/22). Do that math! One million subscribers at $12,000 equal $12 billion of pure profit. At Tesla's current P/E of 100X, that would add $1.2 trillion in value.Let's look at the value and utility of FSD. In addition to doing strategic analysis, I'm a beta tester for Tesla Full Self-Drive and will share my observations.Tesla's Levels Of Autonomous DrivingTesla offers three autonomous driving packages:AutopilotAutopilot, which comes standard with all Teslas, as it does with many competitive models, includes the following functionality and features:Traffic-Aware Cruise Control: Matches the car's speed to the surrounding traffic.Autosteer: Assists in steering within clearly marked lanes and uses traffic-aware cruise control.Enhanced AutopilotIn addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot also includes:Navigate on Autopilot: Actively guides the car from a highway's on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting lane changes, navigating interchanges, automatically engaging the turn signal, and taking the correct exit.Auto Lane Change: Assists in moving to an adjacent lane on the highway when Autosteer is engaged.Autopark: Helps automatically parallel or perpendicularly park the car with a single touch.Summon: Moves the car in and out of a tight space using the mobile app or key.Smart Summon: The car will navigate more complex environments and parking spaces, maneuvering around objects as necessary to find the driver in a parking lot.Full Self-Driving CapabilityIn addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot and Enhanced Autopilot, the Full Self-Driving Capability also includes:Traffic and Stop Sign Control (Beta): Identifies stop signs and traffic lights and automatically slows the car to a stop upon approach, with active supervision.Recently Added: Autosteer on city streets.Tesla makes it clear on its website (but not in the names it uses) that the currently enabled Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot, and Full Self-Driving features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. It states that full autonomy will depend on achieving reliability far above human drivers, as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval. As Tesla's Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot, and Full Self-Driving capabilities evolve, cars will continuously be upgraded through over-the-air software updates. There is still an open question about cars needing future hardware and sensor upgrades.Tesla charges an additional fee of $6,000 for Enhanced Autopilot and $12,000 for Full Self-Driving. There is also an option to pay $199 monthly for FSD. FSD is only available as a beta test version, and the city streets capability was just recently added.How Well Does FSD Work?Tesla FSD is the first vehicle available at retail (not including AV fleets like Cruise and Waymo) that can autonomously turn corners and stop and go at traffic signals. It's impressive, but nevertheless, it isn't full self-drive in the definition of that term. And there are still many flaws in the way it operates.There has been a lot of criticism about FSD lately, with articles about tests showing a Tesla with FSD running over a dummy child, followed by rebuttals from Tesla fans who tested it on their own (or borrowed) children to show that it does stop. Even Ralph Nader came out of retirement (since the 1960'sUnsafe At Any Speed) to call on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to recall FSD to \"prevent the growing deaths and injuries.\"I'm not going to repeat these discussions. There is plenty to read about these. Instead, I will share some of my real experiences beta testing FSD. I've been driving a Tesla Model 3 for more than three years. I've driven it thousands of miles in Enhanced Autopilot mode. Recently, I've been driving FSD with autosteer on city streets. (Maybe that opportunity will be removed after this article?)First, FSD can now make left-hand and right-hand turns, stop at traffic signs and lights, start driving on its own when the light changes, and change speed automatically based on speed limits. It's impressive. It's fun but stressful to drive/ride. Here are some of the problems I experienced:Many of the turns are clumsy. To turn right, it frequently drifts to the left into the other lane before maneuvering the right-hand turn.On one left-hand turn, it cut deeply across one of the oncoming lanes on the road it was turning into. It couldn't tell that three lanes were coming in that direction because its vision was blocked by cars in the first two lanes. It (I) was almost hit by a car coming up in the lane it cut into.It drives erratically on roads with no painted lines. To its credit, FSD does estimate where the road ends even without lines, but then it struggles to position itself on the right side of the road. In one case, where there weren't any painted lines, but there was an apron on the side of the road, it would try to center itself on the apron instead of the road.Enhanced Autopilot and FSD are two distinct software platforms. Tesla plans to merge them in an upcoming release. However, for now, the hand-off from one to the other is clumsy. Previously with Enhanced Autopilot, when it exited the highway, it would force me to take control at the end of the exit ramp. Now it just gets confused and comes to an abrupt stop at the end of the ramp because it goes straight where the exit splits to the left and right.Once, it tried to turn right with an oncoming car and would have hit it. Not sure why it did that.Sometimes it doesn't read a speed limit sign and continues to use the previous speed limit.It gets confused at right-on-red turns. It hesitates, then tries to jump into too small of a gap between oncoming cars. At one intersection, it attempted to turn right-on-red when it didn't recognize a no-right-turn-on-red sign posted across the intersection.A couple of times, it tried to go through a stop sign because it didn't register the sign in time. These are intersections where the stop sign is far to the right of the turning lane because of a large bicycle lane or extra lane width. It only recognized the sign as it went through the intersection and then stopped abruptly in the middle of the intersection.Driving on a rotary/roundabout. Nope. It can't do it. Don't try it. There are three unmarked rotary lanes with the protocol to weave inside and outside as you approach your exit. This is too advanced.It does identify pedestrians. I wish it would go wider and slower around them, though. Remember, this is a silent EV that people don't hear. It frequently identifies multiple people as one and golf bags as people, but these are not big problems. One time it stopped abruptly because it thought pedestrians walking on the sidewalk would try to cross the street when they weren't.It automatically drives at the speed limit, which is sometimes too slow and sometimes too fast. For example, on a winding road, the speed limit is 30 MPH. That is too slow for the straight sections, which isn't much of a problem except for the frustrated trailing cars. But at some curves, 30 MPH is too fast. Experienced drivers intuitively know to slow down approaching those curves, but Tesla FSD tries to navigate the curve at 30 MPH -- and it doesn't. It veers into the oncoming lane and sometimes stops abruptly if there is an oncoming car.The visualization system is much better with FSD. It's cool. It recognizes the edge of the road, not just the painted lines. It doesn't always recognize objects correctly. The other day I drove right through a tractor-trailer or just the image of one created by the shadow from my garage. It doesn't recognize some types of emergency vehicles. It interprets the flashing lights as backup lights or turn signals. I wish it would add color to the visualization, but that is too much for the computer's processing power.It stops suddenly when a car coming in the other direction on a curve appears to be approaching you.Despite all of its flaws, FSD is still impressive technology. It's a real novelty to take people for a ride in it. The panic on their faces is priceless. Is it safe? Well, maybe, as long as you really pay attention to how it is driving and take control of it before it causes an accident. And it will improve with software upgrades. Using Autopilot for highway driving is more relaxing than driving yourself. You need to pay attention, but very little happens that the car doesn't control appropriately. FSD, on the other hand, is more stressful than driving yourself. It would be best if you worried at every turn, every curve in the road, every traffic light or stop sign, and every pedestrian you pass. In city driving, this is constant. You need to override FSD frequently.In addition to the question about safety, two critical strategic questions will determine the success of FSD for Tesla. The first is understanding if the problems like the ones I mentioned can be solved by updated software or are due to a fundamental limitation of Tesla's technology approach. The second is deciding if FSD is worth $12,000.Tesla's Autonomous Driving Technology PlatformThere are several alternative approaches to autonomous driving, each using a different technology platform. These autonomous driving platforms have different costs and limitations. I go into these in detail in my books on autonomous driving, but I'll try to summarize the two primary ones.Camera-Only Based SystemThe first autonomous driving approach uses a system with cameras to identify what is around the vehicle and where it is within lane markings. This is the approach used by Tesla with eight monochrome cameras of different focal lengths around the vehicle. The way this system works is that the cameras identify what is ahead and around the vehicle. It uses lane markings to position the vehicle on the road. The cameras also identify other vehicles, stationary objects, and pedestrians. The Tesla onboard computer characterizes these objects based on shape, size, and motion. It then determines the vehicle's path, acceleration, and stopping.This autonomous driving approach is used in Tesla's Enhanced Autopilot, as it is in other cars for semi-autonomous highway driving. These work very well on straight highways and roads where there is no need to turn corners. The Mercedes Distronic and GM Super Cruise are similar systems. I've driven with the Mercedes system for thousands of miles in addition to the Tesla, and I found the Mercedes system to be smoother.The big technical question is: Is the camera-only approach sufficient for city and rural driving, where it needs to turn corners, stop at traffic signals, and interact with pedestrians? That is what Tesla is trying to do with FSD.Camera System Combined with High-Definition MapsThe second approach uses a similar camera-based system with other sensors. But, it importantly adds another system with a detailed high-definition map and lidar to precisely position the vehicle within that map.Sample High-Definition Map (FutureCar)HD maps (illustrated in the photo above) provide three primary sets of information. The first is the actual 3D representation of the road and its related features like stop signs, traffic signals, lane markings, crosswalks, curb heights, etc. These features are measured with centimeter-level accuracy. The second interprets what each such sign, light, and marking means. And the third outlines the optimal drive paths the AV can follow smoothly. Sensors on the AV, especially lidar, identify where the AV is in the real world and matches it precisely to the HD map. It can then use the HD map information to guide it.In addition, to the HD map system, these vehicles also have cameras and other sensors to identify all dynamic objects around them, such as vehicles, pedestrians, etc.Pros and cons of the two approachesThe camera-only approach has two significant advantages. It is cheaper and not restricted to areas defined in the HD map. The disadvantage is that it might not work for city and rural autonomous driving, where it needs to turn corners, merge with traffic, and follow traffic signals. So it might not be capable of fully driverless operation.Let's consider some of my experiences with Tesla FSD discussed earlier. Many of these can be improved with software changes but not all of them.For example, the left-hand turn where it could not visually identify that there were three lanes, so it assumed two lanes because it could see cars stopped in those lanes. It then turned into the third lane because it thought it was the correct lane, but there was an oncoming car. The correct lane for the direction it was turning was the next. A system with an HD map would have identified the three lanes and provided the correct turning radius.The examples where the stop sign was not visible to the camera would not have been a problem for the HD map system because it would be identified on the map. FSD just didn't see it in its field of view.The problem of excessive speed on upcoming curves might be able to be addressed with longer-distance cameras but might not be reliable in all cases. The curves would be fully identified with an HD map, and the AV would be instructed to reduce speed as it approaches the curve.These limitations could keep Tesla FSD from being truly driverless and unable to dispatch a Tesla vehicle to drive on its own with no driver to take control. This would limit its value, as we will discuss below.The other approach, the HD map system, can be fully autonomous but only within the mapped area, generally referred to as geofenced. That is why it's the system of choice for what I refer to as sufficiently autonomous driving. An AV can reliably drive from one point to another along a predefined route. The HD map system will be used for fleets autonomously driving specific routes. The fleets will test their AVs on the routes over and over to make sure they function safely.These will be the first three implementations of autonomous driving, with significant launches expected in the next two years:Autonomous Ride-Hailing. Waymo (GOOG) is already operating in Scottsdale, and Cruise (GM) is operational in San Francisco. To better understand this market and technology, see:Advantages GM Cruise Has Over Uber.Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking. See Autonomous Long-Haul Trucking: 3 Pure Play Investment Opportunities.Autonomous Home Delivery.There are several pilot projects around the country, and Nuro is developing a special AV delivery vehicle.How Valuable Is Tesla FSD?So, how valuable is Tesla's Full Self-Drive? Let's look at it in several ways.Elon Musk's two statements at the beginning of this article frame the value: Tesla is worthless without it, and with it, it will provide $12 billion of incremental profit annually. However, sometimes Elon Musk exaggerates things (ask Manchester United). From a practical analysis, neither of these is most likely correct.In Tesla's recent annual meeting (Tesla 8/4/22 Annual Meeting),Elon Musk discussed his view on FSD. He made an important observation that cars today sit idle most of the time, typically used only 12 hours per week. When autonomous, the utility can increase to 50-60 hours per week. The cost is relatively the same. He envisions Tesla vehicles to be fully autonomous through FSD, and those owners will be able to make money by sharing their cars the way Airbnb and Uber work. He believes that assuming this, Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world.However, this assumes that FSD will be completely driverless.Tesla recently cited that it had 100,000 people authorized to use FSD and that they drove 10 million miles last month. This is an interesting data point because that's an average of only 100 miles of FSD per person per month, which equates to a cost of $2-$3 per mile for FSD, depending on how much was paid for FSD. For most people, city driving miles are much lower than highway driving. If FSD is only a convenience feature for a small portion of the driving and not truly driverless, then for many, it's too expensive an option at $12,000. And this assumes that it works sufficiently.So, the most significant value of FSD comes if it is fully driverless and Tesla can create a virtual fleet from customer cars that would be competitive with Cruise, Waymo, Argo, Aurora, Motional, and possibly Apple. This isn't likely in the near future. But maybe there is another alternative.Recommendation For TeslaHowever, there is another way for Tesla to get value from its FSD technology. It doesn't need to (and can't) make the jump to driverless right away. Here's what it could do:Rename this release Limited Self-Driving. In addition to enabling the name FSD to be used for a future release, it would diminish many of the FSD complaints.Keep it as a beta test program for longer -- at least another year. And request feedback more directly from its users.Require the driver to be hands-on and have the system turn control back to the driver immediately in certain situations. An example is when it gets to an intersection with a red traffic signal and is turning right, give control back to the driver with the question \"turn right on red?\" This would enable the driver to decide if it's safe to turn right or not. It would also avoid the risk I mentioned previously of not seeing a no-turn-on-red sign. There are other similar situations such as turning left on an intersection where the line markings are not clear. This could be implemented similar to Enhanced Autopilot where the vehicle asks drivers if they want to initiate lane changes. Put in many of these cases initially, but gradually eliminate them as the software improves.After beta testing, price the Limited Self-Driving feature at $6,000 instead of $12,000. The higher price could be used when true FSD is achieved. This would probably require reducing the Enhanced Autopilot feature price too. It may mean refunding some previously paid fees, but that's not a big deal.This approach would provide a safer way forward for Tesla, even though it's not as dramatic and may not be Elon Musk's style. It would enable Tesla to still get additional revenue/profit from its technology, with probably more customers buying it at $6,000 than at $12,000. It would mean several years of Limited Self-Drive with FSD deferred until the future. Tesla could still be the first to offer driverless fully-autonomous cars at retail in the future. However, most likely it would be well behind Waymo, Cruise, and others with autonomous ride-hailing. It's an issue of strategic priorities, having a feasible core strategic vision.ConclusionThere are several diverse outcomes on the value of FSD.It could have no value if authorities shut it down for safety reasons, and/or it proves to be unsafe with too many accidents. It's possible that this could even have negative value if it damages Tesla's reputation.It could have additional near-term value to Tesla if released as a Limited Self-Driving alternative, along with continued longer-term value if it becomes the first fully autonomous car sold at retail.It could have tremendous value if it becomes fully driverless in the immediate future and competes in the autonomous ride-hailing market. But I think this is a long-shot.Analysts don't seem to value FSD much in their projections, although Tesla does not break out Autopilot or FSD revenue yet. (Note: Elon Musk criticizes analyst forecasts because they don't even drive a Tesla.) ARK Invest puts significant value on FSD with autonomous ride-hailing in its forecasts. Many Tesla fans and retail investors are ecstatic about FSD.In any case, the progress of FSD should be watched closely over the next few months by all Tesla investors.Note: The price for Tesla Inc.’s Full Self-Driving system will rise to $15,000 in North America, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk tweeted Sunday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9991687675,"gmtCreate":1660828325899,"gmtModify":1676536406296,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wet blanket&nbsp;","listText":"Wet blanket&nbsp;","text":"Wet blanket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9991687675","repostId":"2260389489","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993603149,"gmtCreate":1660684832683,"gmtModify":1676536375842,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Speaking the obvious. Still buy cautiously and within means, long term Tslawill appreciate but short term, peoplemight take advantage of what is said here and make money by pushing theprice either way and cause upset","listText":"Speaking the obvious. Still buy cautiously and within means, long term Tslawill appreciate but short term, peoplemight take advantage of what is said here and make money by pushing theprice either way and cause upset","text":"Speaking the obvious. Still buy cautiously and within means, long term Tslawill appreciate but short term, peoplemight take advantage of what is said here and make money by pushing theprice either way and cause upset","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993603149","repostId":"2259839211","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990695757,"gmtCreate":1660347947981,"gmtModify":1676533453882,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A collection of the negatives Tesla faced . Good summary. Nothing about Tesla's strength. Got to read the latter to have a balanced view.&nbsp;","listText":"A collection of the negatives Tesla faced . Good summary. Nothing about Tesla's strength. Got to read the latter to have a balanced view.&nbsp;","text":"A collection of the negatives Tesla faced . Good summary. Nothing about Tesla's strength. Got to read the latter to have a balanced view.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990695757","repostId":"1157910275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157910275","pubTimestamp":1660318322,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157910275?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-12 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Past Its Sell-By Date!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157910275","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryElon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!To achieve that requires several more huge factories to be built that are not yet past the initial planning stages nor even a decision made where they will be located!","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Elon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!</li><li>To achieve that requires several more huge factories to be built that are not yet past the initial planning stages nor even a decision made where they will be located!</li><li>They will require vast sums of money as might many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.</li><li>My share price target is around $100 by year-end. Some are more optimistic, with Citi giving Tesla a sell-rated forecast of $375 → $424. JP Morgan suggests $385. The price, as I write, is $864.</li><li>Some have suggested a price of $1580, which should frighten any cautious investor away.</li></ul><p><b>Those wing doors will not get that Tesla off the ground,</b> and new action against Elon Musk&#39;s autopilot claims might even stop them being driven manually by man - including Musk - in some places. An earlier action against Musk by the SEC resulted in him giving up his driving position as both Chairman and CEO.</p><p>In my first article on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) on 16 November, 2021, titled Tesla&#39;s Ticking Time Bomb, I strongly advised selling Tesla. The price then was $1,054.73, so it is down 18%, somewhat more than the S&amp;P500&#39;s 12% decline. On the first of that same month, the price was $1,209.</p><p>TSLA hit a low of $626 on 24 May, 2022, suggesting many are having doubts, with the recent bounce perhaps being caused by believers in that sky-high $1580 forecast. To those I would recommend they check the past and see that the price had never gone above $100 until the beginning of last year, the price level I believe it will return to. It is down 27% YTD en route to that price.</p><p>This shall probably be my last article on Tesla, as I prefer to write on companies that will gain from world developments, and those do not benefit Tesla in the way they did in the past. That should have a significant negative effect on Tesla&#39;s future performance in both the car and stock markets, and I hope this article will be of value to those holding or considering buying into Tesla now. I would emphasize here that I am not a short seller or a trader. Tesla may well suit those that are, but it does not suit me. I am an investor and I write with only that in mind.</p><p>I will first touch on Tesla the car (and solar panel) maker and expand on the challenges it faces later.</p><p><b>Tesla The Car Maker</b></p><p>Tesla was founded by a visionary named Elon Musk. He saw an opportunity in electric cars, EVs, when other carmakers - and especially the U.S. and German manufacturers - were mostly focused on traditional internal combustion engines, ICEs.</p><p>He gained an almost cult-like following among retail investors and used the resultant share price explosion to raise over $13 billion in four stock offerings. Car-making is a capital-intensive industry, and such low capital costs gave it an advantage to get off the ground and into the big league.</p><p>Tesla also had <i>good profit margins</i>. Being a newcomer to car manufacturing, Tesla did not have legacy car maker problems such as restrictive unions and large company bureaucracies to add cost, plus EVs require many fewer components than ICEs. That makes Tesla&#39;s profit margins better - gross margins were 23% in fiscal 2020, compared with Ford&#39;s (F) 10%. <i>That gap is closing.</i> Tesla&#39;s superior margins over other carmakers are used by many believers to justify its high valuation, but - while they are good compared with many - they are not sufficiently better than the world&#39;s largest carmaker Toyota (TM,OTCPK:TOYOF) to do make the difference so extreme.</p><p><b>Toyota&#39;s P/E is 10.9. Tesla&#39;s P/E is 103.77 - nearly 10 times Toyota&#39;s!</b></p><p><b>Toyota&#39;s market cap $260bn. Tesla&#39;s $967bn - nearly 4 times Toyota&#39;s!</b></p><p>The latest gross margin (&#34;GM&#34;) figures show this:</p><p>Tesla&#39;s GM: 28%. Net: 10.5%. Ops: 14.6%</p><p>Toyota&#39;s GM: 18%. Net: 8.5%. Ops: 8%</p><p>That GM gap will close when Toyota (and other ICE makers) build more EVs because of the hugely lower amount of materials needed to build EV motors than ICEs, so either TM&#39;s P/E should shoot up or TSLA&#39;s crash down.</p><p>The latest results from Tesla&#39;s website were good, but the Gross Margin is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d5fce89f9eada41780cfacd8d123c95\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed17678a34727ef88451b33fd78453a\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e9b6e7adf9f631f7442c6692bd0a231\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Tesla.</p><p>If more financial information is required, it can be found here onTesla&#39;s website.</p><p><b>Cash and cash equivalents</b> are good, but billions will be needed to build the additional giant factories required, as might the many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.</p><p>I will now move on to those...</p><p>Problems - Internal <b>Self-Inflicted</b></p><p><b>There are many self-inflicted problems,</b> and many have yet to be resolved. The latest are claims by California&#39;s DMV that Tesla overstated its autopilot capabilities. ThisReutersarticle tells more about that. California is Tesla&#39;s largest U.S. market. The company sold 121,000 vehicles there in 2021, out of an estimated 352,000 sold nationwide. The DMV is seeking remedies that could include <b>suspending Tesla&#39;s license to sell vehicles in California</b> and requiring the company to make restitution to drivers.</p><p>Wikipedia has this list of <b>lawsuits</b> against Tesla.I know of no other reputable company that has stirred up so much controversy. The &#34;autopilot&#34; - the word used by Elon Musk to describe Tesla&#39;s driver assistance technology - fatality case could prove to be fatal or near-fatal for the whole company. Autoblog tells us more on that.</p><p>Currently, in a car accident in the U.S., the driver of one car sues the driver of the other car. It is only very seldom the car manufacturer is sued. For self-driving cars, however, things are likely to be different. There aren&#39;t other drivers to sue. There is just the car - and the company that made it. It won&#39;t take long for plaintiffs&#39; lawyers to start filing big lawsuits, even class actions, against the car and technology companies that made the cars and designed the self-driving technology. And, as we have seen in other such situations, <b>there could soon be billion-dollar judgments against Tesla.</b></p><p><b>Recall and Warranty costs.</b> In 2021, Tesla recalled 475,000 vehicles for safety issues in the U.S. alone. Barron&#39;s recently reported that, since January, 2022, Tesla has issued four recalls for almost 1.5 million vehicles worldwide, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. That&#39;s roughly four times the 360,000 cars that Tesla delivered in the U.S. in 2021, and a half-million more, at least, than the 936,000 delivered worldwide. Global deliveries rose about 87%, compared with 2020. Those problems have to be fixed free of charge, plus many other problems require fixing under warranty.</p><p>They all require the vehicle to be returned to a dealer to be fixed. They <b>are a nuisance for the owners and costly for Tesla shareholders.</b></p><p><b>Musk&#39;s Antics.</b> I borrowed the word antic from Al Jazeera&#39;s report headed &#34;Musk&#39;s antics turn Tesla owners, new buyers against it.&#34;</p><p>Another antic was buying into <b>solar panels</b>. This is a U.S.-only market for Tesla. He got into solar by buying a troubled company founded by his cousins and on whose board he sat. That was paid for with Tesla shareholders&#39; money and led to a failed lawsuit by them, according to this Business Insider report. Its policy has been to offer <b>lowest price guarantees, which is suicidal</b> in such a commodity product market sector and - to reduce costs in the U.S. further - President Biden has waived tariffs on solar panels imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. A CNET report also claims that &#34;Tesla is skimping on customer service.&#34;This activity will be a constant drain on Tesla profits until closed!</p><p><b>Share sales.</b> <b>Musk&#39;s latest antic is to sell more Tesla shares</b> purportedly to prepare any payment he may have to pay for his Twitter bid. One has to question why did he sell now if he has confidence the stock price will be higher when the outcome of that case against him is known?! This SA News report headed &#34;Elon Musk backtracks on stock pledge&#34; tells more, including &#34;he now owns just under 15% of Tesla.&#34; One day he may be a total high-price dropout!</p><p><b>Musk&#39;s Aims.</b> As a visionary, he has achieved near miracles to get Tesla where it is today. However, it will need another miracle in the near future if 20 million cars are to be made, and even aiming for them could put Tesla into reverse gear financially. At Tesla&#39;s recent Cyber Round Up in Austin, Texas, Musk said the company would &#34;end up building at least 10 or 12 Gigafactories.&#34; Those <b>Gigafactories cost Gigabucks to build.</b> They also require years to build, and he needs them soon if he is to make <b>20 million cars per year by2030.</b> That means completion before the end of 2029 - just over 7 years away. None have been started, nor even have locations been announced!</p><p>In the unlikely event Tesla achieved that number, it would require another miracle to sell that many cars, because gaining 16.4% of the entire world car market - including ICEs - is probably impossible for any car maker.GlobeNewswiremade the 2030 estimate of total car market size in 2030 of 122.83 million units that I used to calculate that market share percentage. It makes worthwhile reading.</p><p>It also looks rather stupid ifS&amp;P Global&#39;s estimate of 26.8 million EV sales by 2030 proves correct. That would mean <b>Tesla has to achieve 75% EV market share!</b></p><p>Toyota is the world&#39;s largest carmaker and manufactures around 10 million cars per year. It has around 10% of the world market. It makes ICEs, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery EVs, and hydrogen cars. Tesla only makes battery EVs.</p><p>It therefore takes a bit of a stretch of the imagination to see Tesla selling 20 million cars per year by 2030... if it can make them!</p><p><b>Problems - External</b></p><p><b>Lithium supplies.</b> The Financial Times recently published this article headed &#34;Electric-car makers warned lithium supply crunch is set to last until 2030.&#34;</p><p><b>Political and economic.</b> The new <b>Inflation Reduction Act</b> could have a perverse and unintended negative result for Tesla. The $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit will be renewed in January of 2023 and last until the end of 2032. A striking new requirement is that qualifying cars must be assembled in North America and that materials and critical minerals in the battery must come from the U.S. or a country with a free trade agreement with the U.S. That means some electric vehicles sold in the U.S. will be ineligible as soon as the bill takes effect. Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (&#34;CATL&#34;), who make some batteries for Tesla, has dropped plans to make them in the U.S.</p><p><b>Political backlashes.</b> Elon Musk has probably made some <b>enemies</b> at the political top<b>in California</b>due to his personal move, and Tesla&#39;s HQ, from there to Texas. They may encourage a harsh judgement in DMV&#39;s autopilot case against Tesla that I mentioned above.</p><p>Tesla may yet face other challenges due to his behavior <b>in Germany.</b> That country is full of bureaucracies, some of which wanted to prevent the car and battery factory near Berlin from being built in the first place. Also, local residents and environmentalists - including Green party politicians - did not want their environmentally and visually valuable forest torn down, as this report shows. Elon Musk apparently barged through those bureaucratic regulations and local and environmental objections and started building without proper approvals. The battery factory has still not been started. Their unanswered environmental problems remain. This CNBC article tells more.</p><p><b>The UK is in or near recession,</b> as are several EU continues. They include important German, UK, French, and Italian car makers, all of which have poured billions into making EVs.</p><p>That brings me to another major problem for Tesla...</p><p><b>Competition</b></p><p>-<b>Loss of a previously exclusive big Tesla buyer.</b> EV subscription company <b>Autonomy has placed an order for 23,000 EVs</b> with 17 global automakers to expand and diversify its subscription fleet beyond just Tesla vehicles. Autonomy currently has 1,000 cars, all of which are Tesla models. The fleet order valued at $1.2B includes EVs from BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Canoo (GOEV), Fisker (FSR), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Lucid Group (LCID), Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF), Polestar (PSNY), Rivian (RIVN), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor, VinFast, Volvo Car (OTCPK:VLVOF), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF).</p><p>-<b>Others lead the autopilot race.</b> Tesla&#39;s autopilot faces costly attacks and is anyway losing the race to others, as this chart shows</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28c1c01bae4366c47e659b1d8e789f69\" tg-width=\"349\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>inverse.com</p><p>Waymo leads with Baidu not far behind...</p><p>-<b>Chinese tech giant, Baidu</b>(BIDU) has securedthe first permits in China to offer commercial <b>fully driverless</b> robotaxi services to the public on open roads.</p><p>Wei Dong, vice president and chief safety operation officer of Baidu&#39;s Intelligent Driving Group, said in a statement:</p><blockquote>&#34;We believe these permits are a key milestone on the path to the inflection point when the industry can finally roll out fully autonomous driving services at scale.&#34;</blockquote><p>Baidu will sell its technology to other car makers helping those leapfrog over Tesla.</p><p>It will also make cars having unveiled the Apollo RT6 - photo above - an EV ready for production with aninitial starting price of $37,000. Jidu Auto, which is a joint venture between Baidu and Geely Automobile Holdings (OTCPK:GELYY) is looking at raising between $300M and $400M as it seeks to launch its first commercial vehicle in 2023.</p><p>- Apple (AAPL) may have this fully autonomous EVon the road by 2025. Rumors suggest it will be made by Hyundai. If so, maybe their worldwide dealer network will sell and service it.</p><p>Apple reportedly poacheda top executive from Italian luxury carmaker Lamborghini for its car project.</p><p>- China&#39;s <b>BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF,OTCPK:BYDDY) sold 641,350</b> EVs in the first six months of 2022, representing a 315% increase from the same period last year. Tesla, on the other hand, delivered a total of 564,743 vehicles in H1.</p><p>- Century-old car makers are determined to be around for another century! Every major maker is spending billions on EVs. A JV between Stellantis (STLA) and Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) is building a $2.5 billion battery factory in Indiana. General Motors is spending $7bn to convert an existing factory to make EVs. That shows <b>another advantage traditional car makers have overTesla.</b>It costs less to convert an existing plant to make EVs than to build a new one from scratch, plus they have an established workforce and customer base.</p><p>A report on SA tells us that GM&#39;s all-electric Hummer draws rave review from Barron&#39;s.</p><p>Ford is spending $11 billion on plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, and plans to build 600,000 EVs by the end of next year.</p><p>European companies are likewise spending huge sums at home and in the U.S. to build EVs and battery factories.</p><p>Putting all those above points into one big picture and I conclude that...</p><p><b>Tesla Is Beyond Its Sell-By Date</b></p><p>I mentioned Elon Musk&#39;s sales above. He is not the only insider to have been selling; Robyn Denholm - Chairman of the Board - was a huge seller in May and June this year. From the Financial Times, the last time I could find news of insiders buying - including a tiny buy by Elon Musk - was in February 2020:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcb151636a2cf9f820f10fcff805c44\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Financial Times</p><p><b>If Insiders are big sellers - and none buy - why should outsiders do otherwise?!</b></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Past Its Sell-By Date!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Past Its Sell-By Date!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533191-tesla-is-past-its-sell-by-date><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryElon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!To achieve that requires several more...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533191-tesla-is-past-its-sell-by-date\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533191-tesla-is-past-its-sell-by-date","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157910275","content_text":"SummaryElon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!To achieve that requires several more huge factories to be built that are not yet past the initial planning stages nor even a decision made where they will be located!They will require vast sums of money as might many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.My share price target is around $100 by year-end. Some are more optimistic, with Citi giving Tesla a sell-rated forecast of $375 → $424. JP Morgan suggests $385. The price, as I write, is $864.Some have suggested a price of $1580, which should frighten any cautious investor away.Those wing doors will not get that Tesla off the ground, and new action against Elon Musk's autopilot claims might even stop them being driven manually by man - including Musk - in some places. An earlier action against Musk by the SEC resulted in him giving up his driving position as both Chairman and CEO.In my first article on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) on 16 November, 2021, titled Tesla's Ticking Time Bomb, I strongly advised selling Tesla. The price then was $1,054.73, so it is down 18%, somewhat more than the S&P500's 12% decline. On the first of that same month, the price was $1,209.TSLA hit a low of $626 on 24 May, 2022, suggesting many are having doubts, with the recent bounce perhaps being caused by believers in that sky-high $1580 forecast. To those I would recommend they check the past and see that the price had never gone above $100 until the beginning of last year, the price level I believe it will return to. It is down 27% YTD en route to that price.This shall probably be my last article on Tesla, as I prefer to write on companies that will gain from world developments, and those do not benefit Tesla in the way they did in the past. That should have a significant negative effect on Tesla's future performance in both the car and stock markets, and I hope this article will be of value to those holding or considering buying into Tesla now. I would emphasize here that I am not a short seller or a trader. Tesla may well suit those that are, but it does not suit me. I am an investor and I write with only that in mind.I will first touch on Tesla the car (and solar panel) maker and expand on the challenges it faces later.Tesla The Car MakerTesla was founded by a visionary named Elon Musk. He saw an opportunity in electric cars, EVs, when other carmakers - and especially the U.S. and German manufacturers - were mostly focused on traditional internal combustion engines, ICEs.He gained an almost cult-like following among retail investors and used the resultant share price explosion to raise over $13 billion in four stock offerings. Car-making is a capital-intensive industry, and such low capital costs gave it an advantage to get off the ground and into the big league.Tesla also had good profit margins. Being a newcomer to car manufacturing, Tesla did not have legacy car maker problems such as restrictive unions and large company bureaucracies to add cost, plus EVs require many fewer components than ICEs. That makes Tesla's profit margins better - gross margins were 23% in fiscal 2020, compared with Ford's (F) 10%. That gap is closing. Tesla's superior margins over other carmakers are used by many believers to justify its high valuation, but - while they are good compared with many - they are not sufficiently better than the world's largest carmaker Toyota (TM,OTCPK:TOYOF) to do make the difference so extreme.Toyota's P/E is 10.9. Tesla's P/E is 103.77 - nearly 10 times Toyota's!Toyota's market cap $260bn. Tesla's $967bn - nearly 4 times Toyota's!The latest gross margin (\"GM\") figures show this:Tesla's GM: 28%. Net: 10.5%. Ops: 14.6%Toyota's GM: 18%. Net: 8.5%. Ops: 8%That GM gap will close when Toyota (and other ICE makers) build more EVs because of the hugely lower amount of materials needed to build EV motors than ICEs, so either TM's P/E should shoot up or TSLA's crash down.The latest results from Tesla's website were good, but the Gross Margin is declining.Source: Tesla.If more financial information is required, it can be found here onTesla's website.Cash and cash equivalents are good, but billions will be needed to build the additional giant factories required, as might the many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.I will now move on to those...Problems - Internal Self-InflictedThere are many self-inflicted problems, and many have yet to be resolved. The latest are claims by California's DMV that Tesla overstated its autopilot capabilities. ThisReutersarticle tells more about that. California is Tesla's largest U.S. market. The company sold 121,000 vehicles there in 2021, out of an estimated 352,000 sold nationwide. The DMV is seeking remedies that could include suspending Tesla's license to sell vehicles in California and requiring the company to make restitution to drivers.Wikipedia has this list of lawsuits against Tesla.I know of no other reputable company that has stirred up so much controversy. The \"autopilot\" - the word used by Elon Musk to describe Tesla's driver assistance technology - fatality case could prove to be fatal or near-fatal for the whole company. Autoblog tells us more on that.Currently, in a car accident in the U.S., the driver of one car sues the driver of the other car. It is only very seldom the car manufacturer is sued. For self-driving cars, however, things are likely to be different. There aren't other drivers to sue. There is just the car - and the company that made it. It won't take long for plaintiffs' lawyers to start filing big lawsuits, even class actions, against the car and technology companies that made the cars and designed the self-driving technology. And, as we have seen in other such situations, there could soon be billion-dollar judgments against Tesla.Recall and Warranty costs. In 2021, Tesla recalled 475,000 vehicles for safety issues in the U.S. alone. Barron's recently reported that, since January, 2022, Tesla has issued four recalls for almost 1.5 million vehicles worldwide, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. That's roughly four times the 360,000 cars that Tesla delivered in the U.S. in 2021, and a half-million more, at least, than the 936,000 delivered worldwide. Global deliveries rose about 87%, compared with 2020. Those problems have to be fixed free of charge, plus many other problems require fixing under warranty.They all require the vehicle to be returned to a dealer to be fixed. They are a nuisance for the owners and costly for Tesla shareholders.Musk's Antics. I borrowed the word antic from Al Jazeera's report headed \"Musk's antics turn Tesla owners, new buyers against it.\"Another antic was buying into solar panels. This is a U.S.-only market for Tesla. He got into solar by buying a troubled company founded by his cousins and on whose board he sat. That was paid for with Tesla shareholders' money and led to a failed lawsuit by them, according to this Business Insider report. Its policy has been to offer lowest price guarantees, which is suicidal in such a commodity product market sector and - to reduce costs in the U.S. further - President Biden has waived tariffs on solar panels imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. A CNET report also claims that \"Tesla is skimping on customer service.\"This activity will be a constant drain on Tesla profits until closed!Share sales. Musk's latest antic is to sell more Tesla shares purportedly to prepare any payment he may have to pay for his Twitter bid. One has to question why did he sell now if he has confidence the stock price will be higher when the outcome of that case against him is known?! This SA News report headed \"Elon Musk backtracks on stock pledge\" tells more, including \"he now owns just under 15% of Tesla.\" One day he may be a total high-price dropout!Musk's Aims. As a visionary, he has achieved near miracles to get Tesla where it is today. However, it will need another miracle in the near future if 20 million cars are to be made, and even aiming for them could put Tesla into reverse gear financially. At Tesla's recent Cyber Round Up in Austin, Texas, Musk said the company would \"end up building at least 10 or 12 Gigafactories.\" Those Gigafactories cost Gigabucks to build. They also require years to build, and he needs them soon if he is to make 20 million cars per year by2030. That means completion before the end of 2029 - just over 7 years away. None have been started, nor even have locations been announced!In the unlikely event Tesla achieved that number, it would require another miracle to sell that many cars, because gaining 16.4% of the entire world car market - including ICEs - is probably impossible for any car maker.GlobeNewswiremade the 2030 estimate of total car market size in 2030 of 122.83 million units that I used to calculate that market share percentage. It makes worthwhile reading.It also looks rather stupid ifS&P Global's estimate of 26.8 million EV sales by 2030 proves correct. That would mean Tesla has to achieve 75% EV market share!Toyota is the world's largest carmaker and manufactures around 10 million cars per year. It has around 10% of the world market. It makes ICEs, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery EVs, and hydrogen cars. Tesla only makes battery EVs.It therefore takes a bit of a stretch of the imagination to see Tesla selling 20 million cars per year by 2030... if it can make them!Problems - ExternalLithium supplies. The Financial Times recently published this article headed \"Electric-car makers warned lithium supply crunch is set to last until 2030.\"Political and economic. The new Inflation Reduction Act could have a perverse and unintended negative result for Tesla. The $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit will be renewed in January of 2023 and last until the end of 2032. A striking new requirement is that qualifying cars must be assembled in North America and that materials and critical minerals in the battery must come from the U.S. or a country with a free trade agreement with the U.S. That means some electric vehicles sold in the U.S. will be ineligible as soon as the bill takes effect. Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (\"CATL\"), who make some batteries for Tesla, has dropped plans to make them in the U.S.Political backlashes. Elon Musk has probably made some enemies at the political topin Californiadue to his personal move, and Tesla's HQ, from there to Texas. They may encourage a harsh judgement in DMV's autopilot case against Tesla that I mentioned above.Tesla may yet face other challenges due to his behavior in Germany. That country is full of bureaucracies, some of which wanted to prevent the car and battery factory near Berlin from being built in the first place. Also, local residents and environmentalists - including Green party politicians - did not want their environmentally and visually valuable forest torn down, as this report shows. Elon Musk apparently barged through those bureaucratic regulations and local and environmental objections and started building without proper approvals. The battery factory has still not been started. Their unanswered environmental problems remain. This CNBC article tells more.The UK is in or near recession, as are several EU continues. They include important German, UK, French, and Italian car makers, all of which have poured billions into making EVs.That brings me to another major problem for Tesla...Competition-Loss of a previously exclusive big Tesla buyer. EV subscription company Autonomy has placed an order for 23,000 EVs with 17 global automakers to expand and diversify its subscription fleet beyond just Tesla vehicles. Autonomy currently has 1,000 cars, all of which are Tesla models. The fleet order valued at $1.2B includes EVs from BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Canoo (GOEV), Fisker (FSR), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Lucid Group (LCID), Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF), Polestar (PSNY), Rivian (RIVN), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor, VinFast, Volvo Car (OTCPK:VLVOF), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF).-Others lead the autopilot race. Tesla's autopilot faces costly attacks and is anyway losing the race to others, as this chart showsinverse.comWaymo leads with Baidu not far behind...-Chinese tech giant, Baidu(BIDU) has securedthe first permits in China to offer commercial fully driverless robotaxi services to the public on open roads.Wei Dong, vice president and chief safety operation officer of Baidu's Intelligent Driving Group, said in a statement:\"We believe these permits are a key milestone on the path to the inflection point when the industry can finally roll out fully autonomous driving services at scale.\"Baidu will sell its technology to other car makers helping those leapfrog over Tesla.It will also make cars having unveiled the Apollo RT6 - photo above - an EV ready for production with aninitial starting price of $37,000. Jidu Auto, which is a joint venture between Baidu and Geely Automobile Holdings (OTCPK:GELYY) is looking at raising between $300M and $400M as it seeks to launch its first commercial vehicle in 2023.- Apple (AAPL) may have this fully autonomous EVon the road by 2025. Rumors suggest it will be made by Hyundai. If so, maybe their worldwide dealer network will sell and service it.Apple reportedly poacheda top executive from Italian luxury carmaker Lamborghini for its car project.- China's BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF,OTCPK:BYDDY) sold 641,350 EVs in the first six months of 2022, representing a 315% increase from the same period last year. Tesla, on the other hand, delivered a total of 564,743 vehicles in H1.- Century-old car makers are determined to be around for another century! Every major maker is spending billions on EVs. A JV between Stellantis (STLA) and Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) is building a $2.5 billion battery factory in Indiana. General Motors is spending $7bn to convert an existing factory to make EVs. That shows another advantage traditional car makers have overTesla.It costs less to convert an existing plant to make EVs than to build a new one from scratch, plus they have an established workforce and customer base.A report on SA tells us that GM's all-electric Hummer draws rave review from Barron's.Ford is spending $11 billion on plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, and plans to build 600,000 EVs by the end of next year.European companies are likewise spending huge sums at home and in the U.S. to build EVs and battery factories.Putting all those above points into one big picture and I conclude that...Tesla Is Beyond Its Sell-By DateI mentioned Elon Musk's sales above. He is not the only insider to have been selling; Robyn Denholm - Chairman of the Board - was a huge seller in May and June this year. From the Financial Times, the last time I could find news of insiders buying - including a tiny buy by Elon Musk - was in February 2020:Source: Financial TimesIf Insiders are big sellers - and none buy - why should outsiders do otherwise?!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070743818,"gmtCreate":1657114668134,"gmtModify":1676535951473,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just buy Tsla at this levels 700 thereabouts..and u will be happy with your action in the future&nbsp;","listText":"Just buy Tsla at this levels 700 thereabouts..and u will be happy with your action in the future&nbsp;","text":"Just buy Tsla at this levels 700 thereabouts..and u will be happy with your action in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070743818","repostId":"1187368764","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044099361,"gmtCreate":1656668918853,"gmtModify":1676535874381,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A collection of the recent bad news on Tesla. Tesla will come back stronger&nbsp;","listText":"A collection of the recent bad news on Tesla. Tesla will come back stronger&nbsp;","text":"A collection of the recent bad news on Tesla. Tesla will come back stronger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044099361","repostId":"2248349068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2248349068","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1656636683,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248349068?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Run of Record Deliveries May Be Reaching the End of the Road","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248349068","media":"Reuters","summary":"SAN FRANCISCO, June 30 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of reco","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SAN FRANCISCO, June 30 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of record quarterly deliveries as a prolonged COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain, and it slowly ramps up new factories.</p><p>While Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has been pursuing the acquisition of social media platform Twitter Inc, his crown jewel, Tesla, has grappled with production glitches in China and slow output growth at new factories in Texas and Berlin.</p><p>Analysts expect Tesla to report deliveries of 295,078 vehicles for the second quarter as early as Friday, according to Refinitiv data. Several analysts have slashed their estimates further to about 250,000 due to China&#39;s prolonged lockdown.</p><p>This would be down from its record deliveries of 310,048 the preceding quarter, marking Tesla&#39;s first quarter-on-quarter decline in deliveries since the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The world&#39;s most valuable automaker has posted record deliveries every quarter since the third quarter of 2020, weathering pandemic and supply-chain disruptions better than most automakers.</p><p>China has been instrumental in Tesla&#39;s rapid increase of vehicle production and Musk has praised workers there for &#34;burning the 3 a.m. oil.&#34;</p><p>But China&#39;s prolonged zero-COVID lockdown - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called it Tesla&#39;s &#34;albatross&#34; this quarter - caused deeper disruptions to output than Musk predicted. Tesla&#39;s low-cost, lucrative Shanghai factory produced roughly half of the company&#39;s total cars delivered last year, and Ives estimated the shutdown wiped out about 70,000 units in the quarter.</p><p>Musk said in April that Tesla&#39;s overall vehicle production in the second quarter would be &#34;roughly on par&#34; with the first quarter, driven by a China rebound. But he recently said Tesla had a &#34;very tough quarter,&#34; citing production and supply-chain challenges in China.</p><p>Musk also said Tesla&#39;s new factories in Texas and Berlin are &#34;gigantic money furnaces&#34; losing billions of dollars as they struggle to increase production quickly. He said the carmaker&#39;s supply-chain problems are not over and keeping the factories running remains a concern.</p><p>&#34;The key question is the magnitude of the (China production) decline and whether the Fremont (California) factory was able to help support volumes,&#34; CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson said.</p><p>He expects volumes to rebound strongly in the second half of the year, as Tesla boosts production at the Shanghai factory with the easing of a COVID-19 lockdown.</p><p>Gene Munster, managing partner at venture capital firm Loup Ventures, was cautious about the outlook, saying the third quarter will be difficult for Tesla and other tech firms, citing a risk of recession.</p><p>Tesla has been laying off hundreds of employees in the United States, after Musk early this month told executives that he had a &#34;super bad feeling&#34; about the economy and needed to cut about 10% of staff at the electric car maker.</p><p>Nevertheless, Musk has said demand for Tesla vehicles remains strong.</p><p>Tesla shares have fallen 37% since early April, hurt by Musk&#39;s Twitter deal and the China lockdown. Tesla shares were down 1.8% at $673.42 on Thursday.</p><p>Musk, a prolific Twitter user who this week passed the 100 million follower mark, has not been tweeting for over a week.</p><p>Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said in a report, &#34;investors are growing fatigued with Elon&#39;s rants&#34; on the Twitter saga, politics and other topics.</p><p>&#34;Many we speak to are questioning if we have reached &#39;peak Elon.&#39;&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Run of Record Deliveries May Be Reaching the End of the Road</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Run of Record Deliveries May Be Reaching the End of the Road\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-01 08:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>SAN FRANCISCO, June 30 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of record quarterly deliveries as a prolonged COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain, and it slowly ramps up new factories.</p><p>While Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has been pursuing the acquisition of social media platform Twitter Inc, his crown jewel, Tesla, has grappled with production glitches in China and slow output growth at new factories in Texas and Berlin.</p><p>Analysts expect Tesla to report deliveries of 295,078 vehicles for the second quarter as early as Friday, according to Refinitiv data. Several analysts have slashed their estimates further to about 250,000 due to China&#39;s prolonged lockdown.</p><p>This would be down from its record deliveries of 310,048 the preceding quarter, marking Tesla&#39;s first quarter-on-quarter decline in deliveries since the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The world&#39;s most valuable automaker has posted record deliveries every quarter since the third quarter of 2020, weathering pandemic and supply-chain disruptions better than most automakers.</p><p>China has been instrumental in Tesla&#39;s rapid increase of vehicle production and Musk has praised workers there for &#34;burning the 3 a.m. oil.&#34;</p><p>But China&#39;s prolonged zero-COVID lockdown - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called it Tesla&#39;s &#34;albatross&#34; this quarter - caused deeper disruptions to output than Musk predicted. Tesla&#39;s low-cost, lucrative Shanghai factory produced roughly half of the company&#39;s total cars delivered last year, and Ives estimated the shutdown wiped out about 70,000 units in the quarter.</p><p>Musk said in April that Tesla&#39;s overall vehicle production in the second quarter would be &#34;roughly on par&#34; with the first quarter, driven by a China rebound. But he recently said Tesla had a &#34;very tough quarter,&#34; citing production and supply-chain challenges in China.</p><p>Musk also said Tesla&#39;s new factories in Texas and Berlin are &#34;gigantic money furnaces&#34; losing billions of dollars as they struggle to increase production quickly. He said the carmaker&#39;s supply-chain problems are not over and keeping the factories running remains a concern.</p><p>&#34;The key question is the magnitude of the (China production) decline and whether the Fremont (California) factory was able to help support volumes,&#34; CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson said.</p><p>He expects volumes to rebound strongly in the second half of the year, as Tesla boosts production at the Shanghai factory with the easing of a COVID-19 lockdown.</p><p>Gene Munster, managing partner at venture capital firm Loup Ventures, was cautious about the outlook, saying the third quarter will be difficult for Tesla and other tech firms, citing a risk of recession.</p><p>Tesla has been laying off hundreds of employees in the United States, after Musk early this month told executives that he had a &#34;super bad feeling&#34; about the economy and needed to cut about 10% of staff at the electric car maker.</p><p>Nevertheless, Musk has said demand for Tesla vehicles remains strong.</p><p>Tesla shares have fallen 37% since early April, hurt by Musk&#39;s Twitter deal and the China lockdown. Tesla shares were down 1.8% at $673.42 on Thursday.</p><p>Musk, a prolific Twitter user who this week passed the 100 million follower mark, has not been tweeting for over a week.</p><p>Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said in a report, &#34;investors are growing fatigued with Elon&#39;s rants&#34; on the Twitter saga, politics and other topics.</p><p>&#34;Many we speak to are questioning if we have reached &#39;peak Elon.&#39;&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2248349068","content_text":"SAN FRANCISCO, June 30 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of record quarterly deliveries as a prolonged COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain, and it slowly ramps up new factories.While Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has been pursuing the acquisition of social media platform Twitter Inc, his crown jewel, Tesla, has grappled with production glitches in China and slow output growth at new factories in Texas and Berlin.Analysts expect Tesla to report deliveries of 295,078 vehicles for the second quarter as early as Friday, according to Refinitiv data. Several analysts have slashed their estimates further to about 250,000 due to China's prolonged lockdown.This would be down from its record deliveries of 310,048 the preceding quarter, marking Tesla's first quarter-on-quarter decline in deliveries since the first quarter of 2020.The world's most valuable automaker has posted record deliveries every quarter since the third quarter of 2020, weathering pandemic and supply-chain disruptions better than most automakers.China has been instrumental in Tesla's rapid increase of vehicle production and Musk has praised workers there for \"burning the 3 a.m. oil.\"But China's prolonged zero-COVID lockdown - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called it Tesla's \"albatross\" this quarter - caused deeper disruptions to output than Musk predicted. Tesla's low-cost, lucrative Shanghai factory produced roughly half of the company's total cars delivered last year, and Ives estimated the shutdown wiped out about 70,000 units in the quarter.Musk said in April that Tesla's overall vehicle production in the second quarter would be \"roughly on par\" with the first quarter, driven by a China rebound. But he recently said Tesla had a \"very tough quarter,\" citing production and supply-chain challenges in China.Musk also said Tesla's new factories in Texas and Berlin are \"gigantic money furnaces\" losing billions of dollars as they struggle to increase production quickly. He said the carmaker's supply-chain problems are not over and keeping the factories running remains a concern.\"The key question is the magnitude of the (China production) decline and whether the Fremont (California) factory was able to help support volumes,\" CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson said.He expects volumes to rebound strongly in the second half of the year, as Tesla boosts production at the Shanghai factory with the easing of a COVID-19 lockdown.Gene Munster, managing partner at venture capital firm Loup Ventures, was cautious about the outlook, saying the third quarter will be difficult for Tesla and other tech firms, citing a risk of recession.Tesla has been laying off hundreds of employees in the United States, after Musk early this month told executives that he had a \"super bad feeling\" about the economy and needed to cut about 10% of staff at the electric car maker.Nevertheless, Musk has said demand for Tesla vehicles remains strong.Tesla shares have fallen 37% since early April, hurt by Musk's Twitter deal and the China lockdown. Tesla shares were down 1.8% at $673.42 on Thursday.Musk, a prolific Twitter user who this week passed the 100 million follower mark, has not been tweeting for over a week.Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said in a report, \"investors are growing fatigued with Elon's rants\" on the Twitter saga, politics and other topics.\"Many we speak to are questioning if we have reached 'peak Elon.'\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050801657,"gmtCreate":1654159275079,"gmtModify":1676535404722,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Same old trash Tsla story.. can u think of something better to write??","listText":"Same old trash Tsla story.. can u think of something better to write??","text":"Same old trash Tsla story.. can u think of something better to write??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050801657","repostId":"2240660477","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2240660477","pubTimestamp":1654235519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240660477?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 13:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: A Wild Card","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240660477","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"We've heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We&#39;ve heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that it is overvalued, others say that the current price is a steal. Reputable institutions also can&#39;t seem to agree on the valuation of this absolute wild card of a stock. At the time of writing this article, Credit Suisse and Berenberg have price targets of $1025 and $900 respectively, while JPMorgan and Barclays both have price targets of $325. There is a huge difference in how people and institutions value this stock; much more so compared to other company stocks. In this article, I take a deeper dive into Tesla&#39;s business model and future prospects, after which I will be concluding with my personal valuation analysis for Tesla stock.</p><h2>Why Tesla can be a front-runner in the future</h2><p>The company itself is on a very optimistic trajectory, and could expand at an impressive rate in the near future. We must also consider the rapid expansion of the EV market in general.</p><h3>Explosive growth in financials</h3><p>Tesla has shown explosive growth in multiple areas. Its first-quarter earnings results, which were reported this month, showed an 87% YoY increase in automotive revenue ($16.9B) and a 68% surge in deliveries (310048). In addition, its net cash flow from operating activities saw an increase of over 143%, and it currently stands at just under $4B. It is no question that the company is on an upward trajectory in terms of its growth. The statistics reflect that the company is producing and selling more vehicles at an alarming pace. Its operating cash flows are also increasing massively, which indicates that the company&#39;s core business activities (in this case, the manufacturing of electric vehicles) are doing extremely well.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08130a3ae96a853b5227a128fe52208e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla&#39;s quarterly vehicle sales growth (2012-2021) (CleanTechnica, Tesla)</p><p>We can see from the chart above that the growth in vehicle sales over the past few years has been on a strong and consistent upward trajectory. There is no doubt that the company&#39;s growth rates in revenue and deliveries indicate that it will remain a huge player in the vehicle industry. Another good point to make is that the company&#39;s free cash flow has been up tremendously - the company has turned a negative free cash flow of ($221.71m) in 2018 to a whopping $4.98b in 2021. This is due to the substantial increase in operating cash flows over the years. An article on NASDAQ has suggested that based on analyst estimates of future sales and free cash flow margins, we could see free cash flow reach $17.86b by the end of 2023 - that&#39;s over three times of what it did last year.</p><h3>Self-developed chips</h3><p>One extremely impressive quality of Tesla is that the company develops its own chips. It is known that Tesla writes its own software through the company&#39;s competent engineers, and hence, does not need to source its chips from external suppliers. This gives the company a huge competitive edge over its counterparts. An article from CBS News stated clearly that despite the global chip shortage, Tesla reported record Q4 and FY2022 earnings due to a huge rise in deliveries. Tesla&#39;s self-sufficiency in this area is a good reason to believe in the company, especially in the long run where chip shortages may get worse. In comparison, many Chinese EV makers and well-known vehicle companies like General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have been hit hard by the chip shortage due to their over-reliance on global chip supply, with some of them having to close down their factories. Tesla&#39;s ability to create its own computer chip supply chain puts it in a significantly more advantageous position as compared to its competitors.</p><h2>Concerns about Tesla</h2><p>While the company has many merits, there are several factors which need to be considered before investing in Tesla stock.</p><h3>Vulnerable to supply chain constraints</h3><p>Although Tesla makes its own chips, we need to acknowledge that any EV company is still extremely vulnerable to supply chain issues, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis took the world by storm. According to a recent article by Barron&#39;s,</p><blockquote>A basket of metals that go into lithium-ion batteries was up about 40% year to date before Russia invaded Ukraine. It has risen another 13% since then as the war makes inflation worse.&#34;</blockquote><p>The drastic increase in price of such factor inputs means horrible news for the EV industry, especially for major players like Tesla. The same article also highlights a more serious problem about this supply chain - its over-reliance on China, which is responsible for the global production of about 80% of such inputs. Elon Musk himself has said that supply chain issues would be affecting output numbers to a significant extent in 2022. The company has even delayed two vehicle releases (namely the Cybertruck and the Roadster) as a result of such constraints. As such, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> cannot underestimate supply chain concerns which arise for EV companies, and it is evident that Tesla has been affected by these issues. The most recent report about Tesla&#39;s sales in April this year is further justification that the supply chain issue cannot be neglected. Whether the company navigates these roadblocks remain something to be proven, and persistence of such issues could lead to a bump in the current exponential growth that the company is experiencing, possibly resulting in lower forecasted sales, revenue, and free cash flows. These considerations will be made in the valuation section of this article.</p><h3>Financial ratios and metrics</h3><p>While Tesla boasts explosive growth numbers, there are a few metrics and ratios we may need to be concerned about.</p><h4>Price-to-earnings in comparison to competitors</h4><p>According to a report by Barron&#39;s, Ford and General Motors beat Tesla significantly (in sales) in the fourth quarter of 2021, having sales of $37.7 billion and $33.5 billion respectively, compared to Tesla&#39;s $25 billion. Yet, we see that Ford and General Motors are currently trading at lesser than 10 times earnings. In comparison, Tesla trades at about 90 times earnings. However, analysts do expect the P/E ratio to be 46.86 in 2024, which is much more reasonable. Some may also argue that Tesla has an edge over normal car companies for the fact that they have their own software architecture, and should hence be valued at a higher multiple.</p><h4>Share dilution</h4><p>Tesla has been consistently issuing shares over the past few years - The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. There also seems to be no sign of a share buyback, even after a Tesla investor famously demanded for one and got featured on CNBC. The rationale behind this was sound - the stock price has tanked a lot relative to its all-time high. It was even flirting with the low $600s not long ago, yet we have yet to see any action on the company&#39;s part. The constant issuing of shares dilutes investors by reducing their stake in the company.</p><h3>Competition from China</h3><p>The EV industry is highly competitive, especially in China. In particular, NIO (NIO), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV), and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) have taken the EV market by storm and are all growing at exponential rates.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/407ff92f946818922b3568665d0b216c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sales in the Chinese premium EV market (EqualOcean)</p><p>We can see from the chart above that Tesla is attempting to break into the Chinese market, with a good amount of growth in sales in this particular area. Understandably, with China&#39;s growing middle class and rising demand, it is indeed a lucrative decision to get a share of this pie. However, we cannot overlook the strong competition presented by the other Chinese EV giants. We can see that BYD leads the race in sales, with Tesla as a close second. However, NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng are also on a strong upward trajectory. We need to take into account that these three up-and-coming companies have huge room to grow in market share and sales compared to Tesla, and their performance in terms of deliveries and financials over the past few years have been impressive.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d575e31edd67a64988eb43fc01ee0c20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NIO&#39;s quarterly deliveries (CNEVPOST)</p><p>Let&#39;s take a look at NIO and their quarterly deliveries. We can see that year-over-year deliveries are up tremendously, which is a good indicator of the growth potential of an EV company. In addition, NIO still has much room for growth if it continues producing high-quality electric cars and expanding into different markets. To put things into perspective, Tesla&#39;s market capitalization is about 27 times more than NIO&#39;s - yes, it&#39;s that much bigger. The point is that Tesla is not the only player in the market, though it is undoubtedly one of the biggest, and most well-known. The company faces strong competition from its Chinese counterparts, and their exponential growth could seriously threaten Tesla&#39;s future profitability. Tesla has yet to show that the ability to capture majority of the Chinese market, despite it being one of the biggest EV names in the world.</p><h2>Valuation analysis</h2><p>I will be using a discounted cash flow model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8%, to estimate the intrinsic value of Tesla&#39;s stock price. I will also introduce three scenarios: Bear, Base, and Bull.</p><h3>Financials and forecasts</h3><p>Before we go into the analyses, let&#39;s analyze a few metrics. Firstly, let&#39;s look at Tesla&#39;s free cash flows. The company&#39;s free cash flow growth numbers in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were 94.65%, 538.85%, 178.62%, and 83.81% respectively. Next, let&#39;s observe Tesla&#39;s diluted shares outstanding. The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. This is an approximate average 10% increase in diluted shares outstanding every year. Note that the analyst consensus is for Tesla to reach free cash flow numbers of $17.86 billion in 2023, as stated earlier in this article.</p><h4>Bear case</h4><p>For our Bear case, I&#39;ve used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.5%, a 55% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This growth rate leads to an approximate $12b in free cash flows in 2023, which is significantly lower than analyst estimates. I&#39;ve set these conditions based on a bearish scenario where Tesla would continue encountering the supply chain issues I&#39;ve mentioned, which would significantly slow down deliveries. In addition, big Chinese EV names could seriously rival Tesla in the Chinese market. As such, I&#39;ve gone below analyst estimates (by quite a bit), and expect a much slower but consistent growth in sales, operating cash flow, and free cash flow. As for the shares outstanding, I&#39;ve decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe01643d4f8bd01fe14f64141392c6ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bear) (Prepared by author)</p><p></p><p>We&#39;ve come to a price target of about $335.30, putting this estimate on par with the price targets issued by JPMorgan and Barclays, which are both $325.</p><h4>Base case</h4><p>For our Base case, I&#39;ve used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, a 65% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This is my personal projection of the company. These metrics would still lead to a significantly lower free cash flow in 2023 compared to analyst estimates (about $13.56b compared to a forecasted $17.86b). I&#39;ve gone lower because I expect the supply chain issue to persist over the next few years. While Tesla is able to make its own chips, I&#39;ve yet to be convinced that it is able to smoothly overcome the other supply shortages plaguing the market, especially after its April deliveries. Yet, I do believe that it would see decent growth in sales, operating cash flows, and free cash flow, and there is a good chance that it will maintain its competitiveness in China. As for the shares outstanding, I&#39;ve decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f26136fd86fb52e15bceb7ae3fcfb77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Base) (Prepared by author)</p><p></p><p>We&#39;ve come to a price target of about $470.90. I consider this estimate to still be on the conservative side, but it&#39;s definitely significantly more optimistic than the Bear case.</p><h4>Bull case</h4><p>For our Bull case, I&#39;ve used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, an 80% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 3% annual growth in shares outstanding. This would lead to $16.14b in free cash flow in 2023, which is much closer to the analyst estimate of $17.86b. This case assumes that Tesla is able to perfectly continue on its upward trajectory, and is also able to withstand the Chinese competition and maintain or increase its share in the Chinese EV market. However, it&#39;s important to note that I have still gone slightly lower than analyst estimates, factoring in the supply chain issues that the company is currently facing. However, this case assumes that this issue is a short-term one that the company will be able to resolve through other methods of sourcing, a change in global supply chains or its own innovation. I&#39;ve gone on to assume that the company, having earned a tremendous amount of free cash flow, would either issue lesser shares or use it to buy back shares to benefit Tesla investors. As such, I believe that the company would issue shares at a slower rate.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a78487a262914029aee632fd2df1562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bull) (Prepared by author)</p><p>We&#39;ve come to a price target of about $1016.80, putting this estimate on par with the price target issued by Credit Suisse, which is $1025.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>I&#39;ve taken the average of the above three cases to arrive at a price target of $607.66, similar to Cowen&#39;s price target of $660. This is lower than the current price at which Tesla is trading at, though the price was near this level not too long ago. I believe that this company can be described as a wild card - it could bring huge returns if things go to plan, but if they don&#39;t, it could be ridiculously overvalued. It&#39;s imperative that you do further due diligence and invest with caution, as there&#39;s huge uncertainty when it comes to such companies. I will conclude my analysis with a price target of $607.66, and a &#39;Hold&#39; rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: A Wild Card</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: A Wild Card\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-03 13:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515886-tesla-stock-a-wild-card><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We've heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that it is overvalued, others say that the current price is a steal. Reputable institutions also can't ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515886-tesla-stock-a-wild-card\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515886-tesla-stock-a-wild-card","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240660477","content_text":"We've heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that it is overvalued, others say that the current price is a steal. Reputable institutions also can't seem to agree on the valuation of this absolute wild card of a stock. At the time of writing this article, Credit Suisse and Berenberg have price targets of $1025 and $900 respectively, while JPMorgan and Barclays both have price targets of $325. There is a huge difference in how people and institutions value this stock; much more so compared to other company stocks. In this article, I take a deeper dive into Tesla's business model and future prospects, after which I will be concluding with my personal valuation analysis for Tesla stock.Why Tesla can be a front-runner in the futureThe company itself is on a very optimistic trajectory, and could expand at an impressive rate in the near future. We must also consider the rapid expansion of the EV market in general.Explosive growth in financialsTesla has shown explosive growth in multiple areas. Its first-quarter earnings results, which were reported this month, showed an 87% YoY increase in automotive revenue ($16.9B) and a 68% surge in deliveries (310048). In addition, its net cash flow from operating activities saw an increase of over 143%, and it currently stands at just under $4B. It is no question that the company is on an upward trajectory in terms of its growth. The statistics reflect that the company is producing and selling more vehicles at an alarming pace. Its operating cash flows are also increasing massively, which indicates that the company's core business activities (in this case, the manufacturing of electric vehicles) are doing extremely well.Tesla's quarterly vehicle sales growth (2012-2021) (CleanTechnica, Tesla)We can see from the chart above that the growth in vehicle sales over the past few years has been on a strong and consistent upward trajectory. There is no doubt that the company's growth rates in revenue and deliveries indicate that it will remain a huge player in the vehicle industry. Another good point to make is that the company's free cash flow has been up tremendously - the company has turned a negative free cash flow of ($221.71m) in 2018 to a whopping $4.98b in 2021. This is due to the substantial increase in operating cash flows over the years. An article on NASDAQ has suggested that based on analyst estimates of future sales and free cash flow margins, we could see free cash flow reach $17.86b by the end of 2023 - that's over three times of what it did last year.Self-developed chipsOne extremely impressive quality of Tesla is that the company develops its own chips. It is known that Tesla writes its own software through the company's competent engineers, and hence, does not need to source its chips from external suppliers. This gives the company a huge competitive edge over its counterparts. An article from CBS News stated clearly that despite the global chip shortage, Tesla reported record Q4 and FY2022 earnings due to a huge rise in deliveries. Tesla's self-sufficiency in this area is a good reason to believe in the company, especially in the long run where chip shortages may get worse. In comparison, many Chinese EV makers and well-known vehicle companies like General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have been hit hard by the chip shortage due to their over-reliance on global chip supply, with some of them having to close down their factories. Tesla's ability to create its own computer chip supply chain puts it in a significantly more advantageous position as compared to its competitors.Concerns about TeslaWhile the company has many merits, there are several factors which need to be considered before investing in Tesla stock.Vulnerable to supply chain constraintsAlthough Tesla makes its own chips, we need to acknowledge that any EV company is still extremely vulnerable to supply chain issues, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis took the world by storm. According to a recent article by Barron's,A basket of metals that go into lithium-ion batteries was up about 40% year to date before Russia invaded Ukraine. It has risen another 13% since then as the war makes inflation worse.\"The drastic increase in price of such factor inputs means horrible news for the EV industry, especially for major players like Tesla. The same article also highlights a more serious problem about this supply chain - its over-reliance on China, which is responsible for the global production of about 80% of such inputs. Elon Musk himself has said that supply chain issues would be affecting output numbers to a significant extent in 2022. The company has even delayed two vehicle releases (namely the Cybertruck and the Roadster) as a result of such constraints. As such, one cannot underestimate supply chain concerns which arise for EV companies, and it is evident that Tesla has been affected by these issues. The most recent report about Tesla's sales in April this year is further justification that the supply chain issue cannot be neglected. Whether the company navigates these roadblocks remain something to be proven, and persistence of such issues could lead to a bump in the current exponential growth that the company is experiencing, possibly resulting in lower forecasted sales, revenue, and free cash flows. These considerations will be made in the valuation section of this article.Financial ratios and metricsWhile Tesla boasts explosive growth numbers, there are a few metrics and ratios we may need to be concerned about.Price-to-earnings in comparison to competitorsAccording to a report by Barron's, Ford and General Motors beat Tesla significantly (in sales) in the fourth quarter of 2021, having sales of $37.7 billion and $33.5 billion respectively, compared to Tesla's $25 billion. Yet, we see that Ford and General Motors are currently trading at lesser than 10 times earnings. In comparison, Tesla trades at about 90 times earnings. However, analysts do expect the P/E ratio to be 46.86 in 2024, which is much more reasonable. Some may also argue that Tesla has an edge over normal car companies for the fact that they have their own software architecture, and should hence be valued at a higher multiple.Share dilutionTesla has been consistently issuing shares over the past few years - The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. There also seems to be no sign of a share buyback, even after a Tesla investor famously demanded for one and got featured on CNBC. The rationale behind this was sound - the stock price has tanked a lot relative to its all-time high. It was even flirting with the low $600s not long ago, yet we have yet to see any action on the company's part. The constant issuing of shares dilutes investors by reducing their stake in the company.Competition from ChinaThe EV industry is highly competitive, especially in China. In particular, NIO (NIO), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV), and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) have taken the EV market by storm and are all growing at exponential rates.Sales in the Chinese premium EV market (EqualOcean)We can see from the chart above that Tesla is attempting to break into the Chinese market, with a good amount of growth in sales in this particular area. Understandably, with China's growing middle class and rising demand, it is indeed a lucrative decision to get a share of this pie. However, we cannot overlook the strong competition presented by the other Chinese EV giants. We can see that BYD leads the race in sales, with Tesla as a close second. However, NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng are also on a strong upward trajectory. We need to take into account that these three up-and-coming companies have huge room to grow in market share and sales compared to Tesla, and their performance in terms of deliveries and financials over the past few years have been impressive.NIO's quarterly deliveries (CNEVPOST)Let's take a look at NIO and their quarterly deliveries. We can see that year-over-year deliveries are up tremendously, which is a good indicator of the growth potential of an EV company. In addition, NIO still has much room for growth if it continues producing high-quality electric cars and expanding into different markets. To put things into perspective, Tesla's market capitalization is about 27 times more than NIO's - yes, it's that much bigger. The point is that Tesla is not the only player in the market, though it is undoubtedly one of the biggest, and most well-known. The company faces strong competition from its Chinese counterparts, and their exponential growth could seriously threaten Tesla's future profitability. Tesla has yet to show that the ability to capture majority of the Chinese market, despite it being one of the biggest EV names in the world.Valuation analysisI will be using a discounted cash flow model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8%, to estimate the intrinsic value of Tesla's stock price. I will also introduce three scenarios: Bear, Base, and Bull.Financials and forecastsBefore we go into the analyses, let's analyze a few metrics. Firstly, let's look at Tesla's free cash flows. The company's free cash flow growth numbers in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were 94.65%, 538.85%, 178.62%, and 83.81% respectively. Next, let's observe Tesla's diluted shares outstanding. The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. This is an approximate average 10% increase in diluted shares outstanding every year. Note that the analyst consensus is for Tesla to reach free cash flow numbers of $17.86 billion in 2023, as stated earlier in this article.Bear caseFor our Bear case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.5%, a 55% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This growth rate leads to an approximate $12b in free cash flows in 2023, which is significantly lower than analyst estimates. I've set these conditions based on a bearish scenario where Tesla would continue encountering the supply chain issues I've mentioned, which would significantly slow down deliveries. In addition, big Chinese EV names could seriously rival Tesla in the Chinese market. As such, I've gone below analyst estimates (by quite a bit), and expect a much slower but consistent growth in sales, operating cash flow, and free cash flow. As for the shares outstanding, I've decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bear) (Prepared by author)We've come to a price target of about $335.30, putting this estimate on par with the price targets issued by JPMorgan and Barclays, which are both $325.Base caseFor our Base case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, a 65% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This is my personal projection of the company. These metrics would still lead to a significantly lower free cash flow in 2023 compared to analyst estimates (about $13.56b compared to a forecasted $17.86b). I've gone lower because I expect the supply chain issue to persist over the next few years. While Tesla is able to make its own chips, I've yet to be convinced that it is able to smoothly overcome the other supply shortages plaguing the market, especially after its April deliveries. Yet, I do believe that it would see decent growth in sales, operating cash flows, and free cash flow, and there is a good chance that it will maintain its competitiveness in China. As for the shares outstanding, I've decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Base) (Prepared by author)We've come to a price target of about $470.90. I consider this estimate to still be on the conservative side, but it's definitely significantly more optimistic than the Bear case.Bull caseFor our Bull case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, an 80% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 3% annual growth in shares outstanding. This would lead to $16.14b in free cash flow in 2023, which is much closer to the analyst estimate of $17.86b. This case assumes that Tesla is able to perfectly continue on its upward trajectory, and is also able to withstand the Chinese competition and maintain or increase its share in the Chinese EV market. However, it's important to note that I have still gone slightly lower than analyst estimates, factoring in the supply chain issues that the company is currently facing. However, this case assumes that this issue is a short-term one that the company will be able to resolve through other methods of sourcing, a change in global supply chains or its own innovation. I've gone on to assume that the company, having earned a tremendous amount of free cash flow, would either issue lesser shares or use it to buy back shares to benefit Tesla investors. As such, I believe that the company would issue shares at a slower rate.Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bull) (Prepared by author)We've come to a price target of about $1016.80, putting this estimate on par with the price target issued by Credit Suisse, which is $1025.ConclusionI've taken the average of the above three cases to arrive at a price target of $607.66, similar to Cowen's price target of $660. This is lower than the current price at which Tesla is trading at, though the price was near this level not too long ago. I believe that this company can be described as a wild card - it could bring huge returns if things go to plan, but if they don't, it could be ridiculously overvalued. It's imperative that you do further due diligence and invest with caution, as there's huge uncertainty when it comes to such companies. I will conclude my analysis with a price target of $607.66, and a 'Hold' rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022723467,"gmtCreate":1653584425859,"gmtModify":1676535308877,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A fool will always be a fool .&nbsp;","listText":"A fool will always be a fool .&nbsp;","text":"A fool will always be a fool .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022723467","repostId":"2238050922","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2238050922","pubTimestamp":1653575163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238050922?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-26 22:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Widely Held Stocks Billionaires Dumped in the First Quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238050922","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Select billionaire money managers significantly pared down their positions in these popular stocks.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A little more than a week ago, Wall Street&#39;s brightest and most-successful money managers lifted their funds&#39; proverbial hoods and gave investors a look at what they&#39;d been buying and selling in the most-recent quarter.</p><p>Although Form 13F filings demonstrated quite a bit of buying from active money managers, especially in beaten-down growth stocks, they also unveiled some potentially surprising selling activity. What follows are four widely held stocks that billionaire money managers dumped during the first quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F681419%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Shopify</h2><p>To begin with, cloud-based e-commerce platform <b>Shopify</b> was given a sizable reduction by Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital. Entering 2022, Mandel&#39;s fund held a greater than 1% stake in Shopify&#39;s outstanding shares. But following the sale of more than 355,000 shares during the first quarter, Lone Pine&#39;s stake is down to about 0.91%.</p><p>The likeliest reason for Mandel paring down one of Lone Pine&#39;s core positions is the expectation that a recession will occur in the United States. With first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) retracing 1.4%, there&#39;s even a possibility we&#39;re already in a recession and just don&#39;t (officially) know it.</p><p>Since Shopify&#39;s operating model is primarily geared to help small businesses grow, and small businesses might not be profitable or time-tested, there&#39;s some level of concern that a key component of Shopify&#39;s growth could struggle for however long a U.S. economic slowdown/recession lasts.</p><p>The other possible reason for Mandel reducing Lone Pine&#39;s stake in Shopify is valuation. The company has consistently traded at a nosebleed premium to its sales and profit potential since the pandemic began. On one hand, this made sense given the e-commerce solutions the company provides. With various lockdowns throughout the U.S. and internationally, consumers turned to online retail solutions en masse in 2020.</p><p>On the other hand, with inflation soaring and access to capital becoming pricier as lending rates rise, growth prospects for small businesses appear muted. Even with Shopify nearly 80% below its all-time high, set just six months ago, the company still trades at 6 times Wall Street&#39;s forecast sales in 2022 and at a triple-digit projected price-to-earnings ratio.</p><p>While I do believe a premium is warranted for Shopify&#39;s impressive growth rate, it could be a bumpy ride until the Fed&#39;s monetary tightening cycle is complete.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F681419%2F16756851854_91c8a910c8_k.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</span></p><h2>Berkshire Hathaway</h2><p>Another widely held stock that was given the partial heave-ho in the first quarter by a billionaire money manager is conglomerate <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>. Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies sold 868,800 Class B shares (BRK.B), which amounted to a 92% reduction in his fund&#39;s stake, relative to where things stood on Dec. 31, 2021.</p><p>The most logical reason to nearly exit this position in Berkshire probably has to do with signs of economic weakness in the United States. As noted, U.S. GDP went backward in the first quarter, and a number of recent big-box retailer reports have shown inventory levels are rising and low-income consumers are feeling the pinch of inflation. Because Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s investment portfolio is packed with cyclical businesses, shares of the company are at risk of coming under some short-term pressure.</p><p>However, it would be foolish (with a small &#39;f&#39;) to overlook Buffett&#39;s long-term track record. Since taking over as CEO in 1965, he&#39;s led the company&#39;s Class A shares (BRK.A) to an average annual return of 20.1%, which works out to 3,641,613%, in aggregate, over 57 years. By acquiring and investing in time-tested businesses, and hanging on to those investments for long periods, Buffett has demonstrated how powerful time and patience can be.</p><p>What&#39;s more, Buffett&#39;s company is on pace to collect more than $6 billion in dividend income over the next 12 months. Companies that pay a dividend are almost always profitable and time-tested. They also have a history of vastly outperforming stocks that don&#39;t pay a dividend.</p><p>In other words, Simons&#39; fund may eventually regret selling most of its stake in Berkshire Hathaway.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F681419%2Fhacker-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-money-finances-laptop-illegal-getty.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>CrowdStrike Holdings</h2><p>Cybersecurity stock <b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b> is yet another widely held stock that was on one billionaire&#39;s sell list in the first quarter. Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management sold nearly 485,000 shares, equating to 44% of Coatue&#39;s stake entering 2022.</p><p>The probable reason for Laffont to reduce his fund&#39;s position in CrowdStrike is valuation. Similar to Shopify, CrowdStrike has traded at a nosebleed valuation relative to sales and profits since the pandemic began.</p><p>As a premier provider of end-user security, it found itself in the right place at the right time when the pandemic hit and people were forced to lean on the internet and cloud more than ever before. But even after a 50% retracement in its shares, CrowdStrike is still valued at 16 times Wall Street&#39;s sales estimate for the company in 2022, and north of 100 times analysts&#39; profit projection.</p><p>Although CrowdStrike is pricey, it does have two catalysts working in its favor. First, cybersecurity has evolved into a basic necessity over the past two decades. No matter how poorly the U.S. economy is performing, businesses of all sizes need protection. Because hackers and robots don&#39;t take a day off from trying to steal data, demand for cybersecurity solutions remains elevated.</p><p>The other buy-side catalyst is the company&#39;s cloud-native platform, known as Falcon. This platform oversees about a trillion events daily and leans on artificial intelligence to become more efficient at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. A gross retention rate of 98% suggests that businesses have come to trust CrowdStrike&#39;s solutions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F681419%2Ftsla-model-s.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Charging a Tesla Model S. Image source: Tesla.</span></p><h2>Tesla</h2><p>Lastly, at least one billionaire was hitting the brakes on electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>Tesla</b>. Israel Englander of Millennium Management sold 551,827 shares of Tesla during the first quarter, which was just shy of half of his fund&#39;s stake entering the year.</p><p>Why sell Tesla? The most obvious reason would be the expectation of production shortfalls and challenges in the coming quarters. Whereas most major automakers have reduced production due to supply shortages, Tesla has maintained a production pace that would allow the company to eclipse the psychologically important 1 million mark this year. However, with strict COVID-19 lockdowns in China, meeting previous production forecasts appears all but impossible now.</p><p>Valuation has been a persistent concern, as well, for years. While traditional auto stocks are valued at single-digit price-to-earnings multiples, Tesla was valued as high as 15 times sales and more than 100 times forecast earnings earlier this year. Even now, with shares 47% below their all-time high, Tesla is still valued at a lofty 8 times Wall Street&#39;s forecast for sales and 54 times projected profits for 2022.</p><p>On the other side of the coin, we have Tesla&#39;s competitive advantages, such as its mass production, as well as the range, power, and capacity provided by its batteries. First-mover advantages certainly count for something in next-big-thing industries, and it&#39;s hard to overlook the EV maker&#39;s market share lead in the U.S.</p><p>However, CEO Elon Musk looks to be the real wild card for the company -- and it&#39;s never a good thing when the CEO is the focus. Though innovative, Musk has proved to be a liability and distraction for Tesla on more than one occasion. In an economic environment where valuations are being heavily scrutinized by Wall Street and investors, Tesla is a company that might not fare well.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Widely Held Stocks Billionaires Dumped in the First Quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Widely Held Stocks Billionaires Dumped in the First Quarter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-26 22:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/26/4-widely-held-stocks-billionaires-dumped-in-q1/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A little more than a week ago, Wall Street's brightest and most-successful money managers lifted their funds' proverbial hoods and gave investors a look at what they'd been buying and selling in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/26/4-widely-held-stocks-billionaires-dumped-in-q1/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/26/4-widely-held-stocks-billionaires-dumped-in-q1/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238050922","content_text":"A little more than a week ago, Wall Street's brightest and most-successful money managers lifted their funds' proverbial hoods and gave investors a look at what they'd been buying and selling in the most-recent quarter.Although Form 13F filings demonstrated quite a bit of buying from active money managers, especially in beaten-down growth stocks, they also unveiled some potentially surprising selling activity. What follows are four widely held stocks that billionaire money managers dumped during the first quarter.Image source: Getty Images.ShopifyTo begin with, cloud-based e-commerce platform Shopify was given a sizable reduction by Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital. Entering 2022, Mandel's fund held a greater than 1% stake in Shopify's outstanding shares. But following the sale of more than 355,000 shares during the first quarter, Lone Pine's stake is down to about 0.91%.The likeliest reason for Mandel paring down one of Lone Pine's core positions is the expectation that a recession will occur in the United States. With first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) retracing 1.4%, there's even a possibility we're already in a recession and just don't (officially) know it.Since Shopify's operating model is primarily geared to help small businesses grow, and small businesses might not be profitable or time-tested, there's some level of concern that a key component of Shopify's growth could struggle for however long a U.S. economic slowdown/recession lasts.The other possible reason for Mandel reducing Lone Pine's stake in Shopify is valuation. The company has consistently traded at a nosebleed premium to its sales and profit potential since the pandemic began. On one hand, this made sense given the e-commerce solutions the company provides. With various lockdowns throughout the U.S. and internationally, consumers turned to online retail solutions en masse in 2020.On the other hand, with inflation soaring and access to capital becoming pricier as lending rates rise, growth prospects for small businesses appear muted. Even with Shopify nearly 80% below its all-time high, set just six months ago, the company still trades at 6 times Wall Street's forecast sales in 2022 and at a triple-digit projected price-to-earnings ratio.While I do believe a premium is warranted for Shopify's impressive growth rate, it could be a bumpy ride until the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is complete.Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.Berkshire HathawayAnother widely held stock that was given the partial heave-ho in the first quarter by a billionaire money manager is conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway. Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies sold 868,800 Class B shares (BRK.B), which amounted to a 92% reduction in his fund's stake, relative to where things stood on Dec. 31, 2021.The most logical reason to nearly exit this position in Berkshire probably has to do with signs of economic weakness in the United States. As noted, U.S. GDP went backward in the first quarter, and a number of recent big-box retailer reports have shown inventory levels are rising and low-income consumers are feeling the pinch of inflation. Because Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio is packed with cyclical businesses, shares of the company are at risk of coming under some short-term pressure.However, it would be foolish (with a small 'f') to overlook Buffett's long-term track record. Since taking over as CEO in 1965, he's led the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) to an average annual return of 20.1%, which works out to 3,641,613%, in aggregate, over 57 years. By acquiring and investing in time-tested businesses, and hanging on to those investments for long periods, Buffett has demonstrated how powerful time and patience can be.What's more, Buffett's company is on pace to collect more than $6 billion in dividend income over the next 12 months. Companies that pay a dividend are almost always profitable and time-tested. They also have a history of vastly outperforming stocks that don't pay a dividend.In other words, Simons' fund may eventually regret selling most of its stake in Berkshire Hathaway.Image source: Getty Images.CrowdStrike HoldingsCybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings is yet another widely held stock that was on one billionaire's sell list in the first quarter. Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management sold nearly 485,000 shares, equating to 44% of Coatue's stake entering 2022.The probable reason for Laffont to reduce his fund's position in CrowdStrike is valuation. Similar to Shopify, CrowdStrike has traded at a nosebleed valuation relative to sales and profits since the pandemic began.As a premier provider of end-user security, it found itself in the right place at the right time when the pandemic hit and people were forced to lean on the internet and cloud more than ever before. But even after a 50% retracement in its shares, CrowdStrike is still valued at 16 times Wall Street's sales estimate for the company in 2022, and north of 100 times analysts' profit projection.Although CrowdStrike is pricey, it does have two catalysts working in its favor. First, cybersecurity has evolved into a basic necessity over the past two decades. No matter how poorly the U.S. economy is performing, businesses of all sizes need protection. Because hackers and robots don't take a day off from trying to steal data, demand for cybersecurity solutions remains elevated.The other buy-side catalyst is the company's cloud-native platform, known as Falcon. This platform oversees about a trillion events daily and leans on artificial intelligence to become more efficient at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. A gross retention rate of 98% suggests that businesses have come to trust CrowdStrike's solutions.Charging a Tesla Model S. Image source: Tesla.TeslaLastly, at least one billionaire was hitting the brakes on electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla. Israel Englander of Millennium Management sold 551,827 shares of Tesla during the first quarter, which was just shy of half of his fund's stake entering the year.Why sell Tesla? The most obvious reason would be the expectation of production shortfalls and challenges in the coming quarters. Whereas most major automakers have reduced production due to supply shortages, Tesla has maintained a production pace that would allow the company to eclipse the psychologically important 1 million mark this year. However, with strict COVID-19 lockdowns in China, meeting previous production forecasts appears all but impossible now.Valuation has been a persistent concern, as well, for years. While traditional auto stocks are valued at single-digit price-to-earnings multiples, Tesla was valued as high as 15 times sales and more than 100 times forecast earnings earlier this year. Even now, with shares 47% below their all-time high, Tesla is still valued at a lofty 8 times Wall Street's forecast for sales and 54 times projected profits for 2022.On the other side of the coin, we have Tesla's competitive advantages, such as its mass production, as well as the range, power, and capacity provided by its batteries. First-mover advantages certainly count for something in next-big-thing industries, and it's hard to overlook the EV maker's market share lead in the U.S.However, CEO Elon Musk looks to be the real wild card for the company -- and it's never a good thing when the CEO is the focus. Though innovative, Musk has proved to be a liability and distraction for Tesla on more than one occasion. In an economic environment where valuations are being heavily scrutinized by Wall Street and investors, Tesla is a company that might not fare well.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026514616,"gmtCreate":1653400764135,"gmtModify":1676535274758,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tsla is down again today. Are u seeing things?","listText":"Tsla is down again today. Are u seeing things?","text":"Tsla is down again today. Are u seeing things?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026514616","repostId":"1112682761","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026958033,"gmtCreate":1653316281022,"gmtModify":1676535259307,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"very true. What else is there to buy? Nothing beats tesla&nbsp;","listText":"very true. What else is there to buy? Nothing beats tesla&nbsp;","text":"very true. What else is there to buy? Nothing beats tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026958033","repostId":"2237385143","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2237385143","pubTimestamp":1653304992,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237385143?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock a Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237385143","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock's valuation is getting closer to reasonable levels, but it may not stay there for long.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Since <b>Tesla</b>&#39;s CEO Elon Musk disclosed his stake in <b>Twitter</b> on April 4, Tesla&#39;s stock has been on a volatile downhill ride, falling 42%. With the saga between Musk and Twitter becoming more complex, some investors may be wondering if Musk has taken his eye off the ball with one of his most successful companies.</p><p>Even with the stock-based distractions, Tesla as a company has become an absolute powerhouse. The company reported a solid first quarter and set ambitious long-term goals, exciting investors. But the question that has dogged Tesla for years is still being asked: Is the valuation for Tesla too expensive for what the company does?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F680534%2F0x0-supercharger_14.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Tesla.</span></p><h2>Strong growth and superior profitability</h2><p>In terms of vehicle production, Tesla has been full of great news in recent reports. Q1 production rose 69% year over year, which drove automotive revenue growth by 87% year over year. Because revenue grew faster than production, Tesla is generating better margins on every vehicle it produces. This margin increase comes, in part, from price hikes instituted throughout 2021 and increases in production efficiency for its Model S and X, which are higher-priced vehicles.</p><p>This revenue growth is definitely trickling down to the bottom line, as quarterly net income rose 658% year over year. Even more impressive was Tesla&#39;s 17.7% net income margin, placing it among the best in the auto industry.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e154310da82718905120e082b34d5b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TSLA Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts</span></p><p>Tesla is nearing luxury vehicle margins. Because of this, it should be valued closer to <b>Ferrari</b> at 35 times earnings rather than <b>General Motors</b> at six or <b>Toyota </b>with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.6. While Tesla is still valued at 90 times earnings, it could reach that threshold if it maintains its growth.</p><p>Management also gave investors a great piece of news: It expects to grow its vehicle deliveries by 50% annually over multiple years. Using this forecast to model revenue growth and keeping Tesla&#39;s 17.7% profit margin, Tesla could have $14.9 billion in earnings at the end of 2022. This means Tesla trades for 49.5 times full-year 2022 earnings, not a bad valuation for a company that expects to grow around 50% annually over the next few years.</p><p>With the recent stock sell-off, I&#39;m not as concerned about Tesla&#39;s valuation as I would have been when the stock was trading above $1,000 per share. Strong growth and a reasonable valuation make Tesla stock an intriguing investment, but the business model also needs to be solid in order to invest.</p><h2>Tesla is not your typical automaker</h2><p>How does Tesla have such a high profit margin compared to legacy automakers? First, it cut out the middleman. Because Tesla sells directly to consumers, it doesn&#39;t need to share profits with dealers. This business model has rubbed many people the wrong way, but it benefits Tesla significantly.</p><p>It also is solely focused on electric vehicles (EVs). Regardless of your feelings toward EVs, it&#39;s clear the auto industry is moving in that direction. While the legacy automakers are still a couple of years out from total EV production, Tesla is full steam ahead. It&#39;s gaining a first-mover advantage and capturing many customers while other manufacturers are still prototyping or only just now ramping up production. Furthermore, Tesla&#39;s four production models (the 3, S, Y, and X) are all in the top 10 of Consumer Reports&#39; most satisfying cars, ranked first, third, fourth, and tenth, respectively.</p><p>EVs also have another tailwind blowing in their favor: rising gas prices.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca81ef932f70a89cb7d89d0ac279c89\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>US Retail Gas Price data by YCharts</span></p><p>With the average price of gasoline in the U.S. hitting record highs, more consumers are seriously considering making the switch to EVs for their next vehicle purchase. If Tesla can keep up with the demand, it should be able to capture customers before the legacy automakers can, giving Tesla a big advantage.</p><p>However, the costs of raw materials like nickel and cobalt used in making batters are hitting record highs, causing the production costs of Tesla&#39;s vehicles to rise. The range is one of the primary concerns many consumers have about making the switch to EVs. Still, if car buyers can settle for standard range models, Tesla&#39;s lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistries can provide excellent performance without the price hike.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F680534%2F0x0-model3_16.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Tesla.</span></p><p>EVs are gaining market share, and Tesla is leading the way. If you&#39;re buying Tesla stock with a long-term mindset (three to five years), then the stock is a great buy today. However, I don&#39;t know when the bear market turnaround will come, and the stock may drop further in the short term. Investors can mitigate this by slowly easing into the stock over set time periods, potentially buying the stock for a lower price.</p><p>Today could be one of the best opportunities to buy Tesla stock in a long time. Don&#39;t worry about getting the absolute lowest price; a sentiment turnaround could come at any time and cause a rapid stock rise.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock a Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock a Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/23/is-tesla-stock-a-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since Tesla's CEO Elon Musk disclosed his stake in Twitter on April 4, Tesla's stock has been on a volatile downhill ride, falling 42%. With the saga between Musk and Twitter becoming more complex, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/23/is-tesla-stock-a-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/23/is-tesla-stock-a-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2237385143","content_text":"Since Tesla's CEO Elon Musk disclosed his stake in Twitter on April 4, Tesla's stock has been on a volatile downhill ride, falling 42%. With the saga between Musk and Twitter becoming more complex, some investors may be wondering if Musk has taken his eye off the ball with one of his most successful companies.Even with the stock-based distractions, Tesla as a company has become an absolute powerhouse. The company reported a solid first quarter and set ambitious long-term goals, exciting investors. But the question that has dogged Tesla for years is still being asked: Is the valuation for Tesla too expensive for what the company does?Image source: Tesla.Strong growth and superior profitabilityIn terms of vehicle production, Tesla has been full of great news in recent reports. Q1 production rose 69% year over year, which drove automotive revenue growth by 87% year over year. Because revenue grew faster than production, Tesla is generating better margins on every vehicle it produces. This margin increase comes, in part, from price hikes instituted throughout 2021 and increases in production efficiency for its Model S and X, which are higher-priced vehicles.This revenue growth is definitely trickling down to the bottom line, as quarterly net income rose 658% year over year. Even more impressive was Tesla's 17.7% net income margin, placing it among the best in the auto industry.TSLA Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YChartsTesla is nearing luxury vehicle margins. Because of this, it should be valued closer to Ferrari at 35 times earnings rather than General Motors at six or Toyota with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.6. While Tesla is still valued at 90 times earnings, it could reach that threshold if it maintains its growth.Management also gave investors a great piece of news: It expects to grow its vehicle deliveries by 50% annually over multiple years. Using this forecast to model revenue growth and keeping Tesla's 17.7% profit margin, Tesla could have $14.9 billion in earnings at the end of 2022. This means Tesla trades for 49.5 times full-year 2022 earnings, not a bad valuation for a company that expects to grow around 50% annually over the next few years.With the recent stock sell-off, I'm not as concerned about Tesla's valuation as I would have been when the stock was trading above $1,000 per share. Strong growth and a reasonable valuation make Tesla stock an intriguing investment, but the business model also needs to be solid in order to invest.Tesla is not your typical automakerHow does Tesla have such a high profit margin compared to legacy automakers? First, it cut out the middleman. Because Tesla sells directly to consumers, it doesn't need to share profits with dealers. This business model has rubbed many people the wrong way, but it benefits Tesla significantly.It also is solely focused on electric vehicles (EVs). Regardless of your feelings toward EVs, it's clear the auto industry is moving in that direction. While the legacy automakers are still a couple of years out from total EV production, Tesla is full steam ahead. It's gaining a first-mover advantage and capturing many customers while other manufacturers are still prototyping or only just now ramping up production. Furthermore, Tesla's four production models (the 3, S, Y, and X) are all in the top 10 of Consumer Reports' most satisfying cars, ranked first, third, fourth, and tenth, respectively.EVs also have another tailwind blowing in their favor: rising gas prices.US Retail Gas Price data by YChartsWith the average price of gasoline in the U.S. hitting record highs, more consumers are seriously considering making the switch to EVs for their next vehicle purchase. If Tesla can keep up with the demand, it should be able to capture customers before the legacy automakers can, giving Tesla a big advantage.However, the costs of raw materials like nickel and cobalt used in making batters are hitting record highs, causing the production costs of Tesla's vehicles to rise. The range is one of the primary concerns many consumers have about making the switch to EVs. Still, if car buyers can settle for standard range models, Tesla's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistries can provide excellent performance without the price hike.Image source: Tesla.EVs are gaining market share, and Tesla is leading the way. If you're buying Tesla stock with a long-term mindset (three to five years), then the stock is a great buy today. However, I don't know when the bear market turnaround will come, and the stock may drop further in the short term. Investors can mitigate this by slowly easing into the stock over set time periods, potentially buying the stock for a lower price.Today could be one of the best opportunities to buy Tesla stock in a long time. Don't worry about getting the absolute lowest price; a sentiment turnaround could come at any time and cause a rapid stock rise.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023767292,"gmtCreate":1652966114116,"gmtModify":1676535197674,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not only Tesla is falling, the whole market is down..&nbsp;","listText":"Not only Tesla is falling, the whole market is down..&nbsp;","text":"Not only Tesla is falling, the whole market is down..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023767292","repostId":"1152395035","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152395035","pubTimestamp":1652974277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152395035?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152395035","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer  Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan ofTesla or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand forelectric vehicles , like China and Europe, Te","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.</li><li>The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.</li><li>Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.</li></ul><p>I am not a fan of <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) or TSLA stock.</p><p>I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.</p><p>But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when <b>Chevrolet</b> is what the people want?</p><p>Dances With Bulls</p><p>If I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.</p><p>Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.</p><p>Bulls think Tesla is <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.</p><p>Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a <b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TM</u></b>) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even <b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GM</u></b>) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.</p><p>Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.</p><p>The Great Replacement</p><p>A walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.</p><p>Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.</p><p>Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.</p><p>Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, <b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCMKTS:<b><u>VWAGY</u></b>) and <b>Stellantis</b>(NYSE:<b><u>STLA</u></b>) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.</p><p>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</p><p>Bulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy <b>Twitter</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TWTR</u></b>) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.</p><p>The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.</p><p>Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.</p><p>My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Never Bought it and Never Will\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152395035","content_text":"Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when Chevrolet is what the people want?Dances With BullsIf I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.Bulls think Tesla is Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a Toyota(NYSE:TM) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even General Motors(NYSE:GM) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.The Great ReplacementA walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, Volkswagen(OTCMKTS:VWAGY) and Stellantis(NYSE:STLA) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockBulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy Twitter(NASDAQ:TWTR) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023764493,"gmtCreate":1652966006013,"gmtModify":1676535197651,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"U must be kidding","listText":"U must be kidding","text":"U must be kidding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023764493","repostId":"1152395035","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152395035","pubTimestamp":1652974277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152395035?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152395035","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer  Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan ofTesla or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand forelectric vehicles , like China and Europe, Te","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.</li><li>The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.</li><li>Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.</li></ul><p>I am not a fan of <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) or TSLA stock.</p><p>I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.</p><p>But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when <b>Chevrolet</b> is what the people want?</p><p>Dances With Bulls</p><p>If I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.</p><p>Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.</p><p>Bulls think Tesla is <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.</p><p>Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a <b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TM</u></b>) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even <b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GM</u></b>) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.</p><p>Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.</p><p>The Great Replacement</p><p>A walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.</p><p>Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.</p><p>Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.</p><p>Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, <b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCMKTS:<b><u>VWAGY</u></b>) and <b>Stellantis</b>(NYSE:<b><u>STLA</u></b>) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.</p><p>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</p><p>Bulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy <b>Twitter</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TWTR</u></b>) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.</p><p>The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.</p><p>Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.</p><p>My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Never Bought it and Never Will\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152395035","content_text":"Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when Chevrolet is what the people want?Dances With BullsIf I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.Bulls think Tesla is Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a Toyota(NYSE:TM) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even General Motors(NYSE:GM) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.The Great ReplacementA walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, Volkswagen(OTCMKTS:VWAGY) and Stellantis(NYSE:STLA) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockBulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy Twitter(NASDAQ:TWTR) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068849606,"gmtCreate":1651756328506,"gmtModify":1676534962883,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What u wrote is nothing insightful buta rehash of past and existing info. I &nbsp;dislike the choice of your title.. re purchase of twitter by elon sinking Tesla? Sounds far fetched and silly&nbsp;","listText":"What u wrote is nothing insightful buta rehash of past and existing info. I &nbsp;dislike the choice of your title.. re purchase of twitter by elon sinking Tesla? Sounds far fetched and silly&nbsp;","text":"What u wrote is nothing insightful buta rehash of past and existing info. I dislike the choice of your title.. re purchase of twitter by elon sinking Tesla? Sounds far fetched and silly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068849606","repostId":"1126955913","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126955913","pubTimestamp":1651715604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126955913?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-05 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Elon Musk’s Purchase of Twitter Sink Tesla Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126955913","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla has been swooning lately, but not due to fundamental reasons. Keep in mind, TSLA stock enjoyed","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> has been swooning lately, but not due to fundamental reasons. Keep in mind, TSLA stock enjoyed an initially strong rally after the company reported better-than-expected earnings. Despite various headaches over the last few months, the company continues to find a way to deliver.</p><p>So what’s the issue? CEO Elon Musk has been selling stock to make room for his purchase of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>. After Musk’s $44 billion Twitter buyout, he sold 9.6 million Tesla shares worth $8.5 billion. According to atweetfrom the billionaire, he has no plans to sell anymore Tesla stock. However, investors have ridden through this storm once before.</p><p>Musk was unloadingbillions of dollars worth of stockin late 2021 as he made room for his tax bill (due to awards of stock options). The selling made constant headlines as Musk made tongue-in-cheek tweets — there’s some irony — with U.S. Senators. As Musk unloaded, the stock price whipped around violently.</p><p>That said, TSLA stock eventually recovered to all-time highs. The question now is, can it do so again? On April 26 alone, shares lost 12% and shed $125 billion in market capitalization. From last month’s high on April 4 — and the day Twitter stock erupted on the rumors — Tesla has now fallen 22% and lost a whopping $270 billion in market cap. (That’s more than six Twitters at Musk’s buyout price, by the way).</p><p>Investors are obviously concerned that this event combined with the current market conditions will create a one-two punch for the share price.</p><p>On a good note for the company, its biggest plant — the Shanghai Gigafactory — has restarted production after being shut down for 22 days. Tesla reportedly plans to expand its Shanghai factory by building a new plant near its current location. The company hopes to become “the world’s largest vehicle export hub,” with its new plant expecting to have an annual capacity of 450,000 cars.</p><p>Keep in mind, the Shanghai plant delivered 484,100 vehicles in 2021.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Elon Musk’s Purchase of Twitter Sink Tesla Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Elon Musk’s Purchase of Twitter Sink Tesla Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-05 09:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-will-elon-musks-purchase-of-twitter-sink-tesla/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla has been swooning lately, but not due to fundamental reasons. Keep in mind, TSLA stock enjoyed an initially strong rally after the company reported better-than-expected earnings. Despite various...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-will-elon-musks-purchase-of-twitter-sink-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-will-elon-musks-purchase-of-twitter-sink-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126955913","content_text":"Tesla has been swooning lately, but not due to fundamental reasons. Keep in mind, TSLA stock enjoyed an initially strong rally after the company reported better-than-expected earnings. Despite various headaches over the last few months, the company continues to find a way to deliver.So what’s the issue? CEO Elon Musk has been selling stock to make room for his purchase of Twitter. After Musk’s $44 billion Twitter buyout, he sold 9.6 million Tesla shares worth $8.5 billion. According to atweetfrom the billionaire, he has no plans to sell anymore Tesla stock. However, investors have ridden through this storm once before.Musk was unloadingbillions of dollars worth of stockin late 2021 as he made room for his tax bill (due to awards of stock options). The selling made constant headlines as Musk made tongue-in-cheek tweets — there’s some irony — with U.S. Senators. As Musk unloaded, the stock price whipped around violently.That said, TSLA stock eventually recovered to all-time highs. The question now is, can it do so again? On April 26 alone, shares lost 12% and shed $125 billion in market capitalization. From last month’s high on April 4 — and the day Twitter stock erupted on the rumors — Tesla has now fallen 22% and lost a whopping $270 billion in market cap. (That’s more than six Twitters at Musk’s buyout price, by the way).Investors are obviously concerned that this event combined with the current market conditions will create a one-two punch for the share price.On a good note for the company, its biggest plant — the Shanghai Gigafactory — has restarted production after being shut down for 22 days. Tesla reportedly plans to expand its Shanghai factory by building a new plant near its current location. The company hopes to become “the world’s largest vehicle export hub,” with its new plant expecting to have an annual capacity of 450,000 cars.Keep in mind, the Shanghai plant delivered 484,100 vehicles in 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063898537,"gmtCreate":1651450489095,"gmtModify":1676534906800,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Impact from covid affects all but Tesla should recover faster. Why only Tesla investors&nbsp;beware? &nbsp;Median to longer term, Tesla will do better&nbsp;","listText":"Impact from covid affects all but Tesla should recover faster. Why only Tesla investors&nbsp;beware? &nbsp;Median to longer term, Tesla will do better&nbsp;","text":"Impact from covid affects all but Tesla should recover faster. Why only Tesla investors beware? Median to longer term, Tesla will do better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063898537","repostId":"2232730431","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2232730431","pubTimestamp":1651446992,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232730431?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 07:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Investors Beware: Bad NIO, Li, XPeng April Deliveries Hit by Covid.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232730431","media":"Barrons","summary":"Chinese electric vehicle makersNIO,XPengandLi Autoreported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That givesTeslainvestors something else to worry about.NIO(ticker: NIO) del","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPeng and Li Auto reported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That gives Tesla investors something else to worry about.</p><p>NIO (ticker: NIO) delivered 5,074 vehicles in April, down from about 10,000 delivered in March and down from about 7,100 delivered in April of 2021.</p><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street expects NIO to deliver about 31,000 vehicles in the second quarter, up from about 26,000 delivered in the first quarter of 2022. This isn’t a good start to the quarter.</p><p>Covid appears to be the reason. “In late March and April 2022, the Company’s vehicle production and delivery have been impacted by the supply chain volatilities and other constraints caused by a new wave of the COVID-19 outbreaks in certain regions in China,” reads NIO’s news release.</p><p>That isn’t a surprise. Investors have known about Covid-related production problems in China for weeks. Covid lockdowns in Shanghai, for instance, shut Tesla’s plant in the area for weeks, costing Tesla (TSLA) perhaps 15,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2022. Tesla ended up delivering about 310,000 vehicles, just up from the 309,000 delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>Li Auto (LI) delivered 4,167 vehicles in April, down from about 11,000 delivered in March and down from about 5,500 delivered in April 2021.</p><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street expects Li sales to grow to about $1.9 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.5 billion projected for the first quarter. Li delivered almost 32,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Li talked about Covid in its news release, too: “The COVID-19 resurgence in the Yangtze Delta region continues to cause severe industry-wide disruptions in supply chain, logistics and production since late March.” Li makes cars in Changzhou, in the center of the region, and gets most of the parts for its cars locally.</p><p>XPeng (XPEV) results look a little better that Li or NIO numbers. XPeng delivered 9,002 vehicles in April, down from about 15,000 vehicles delivered in March, but up from about 5,000 delivered in April 2021.</p><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street expects XPeng sales to grow to about $1.3 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.1 billion projected for the first quarter of 2022. XPeng delivered almost 35,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>XPeng referenced Covid in its news release as well.</p><p>Combined, the three delivered about 18,000 vehicles in April. That’s the worse monthly result since May 2021 and below the roughly 21,000 combined vehicle delivers in February 2022–when the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday impacted results. But the silver lining is year-to-date, deliveries are up 73% year over year, driven by gains from Li and XPeng.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Investors Beware: Bad NIO, Li, XPeng April Deliveries Hit by Covid.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Investors Beware: Bad NIO, Li, XPeng April Deliveries Hit by Covid.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-02 07:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-li-auto-xpeng-bad-april-deliveries-covid-51651420731?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPeng and Li Auto reported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That gives Tesla investors something else to worry about.NIO (ticker: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-li-auto-xpeng-bad-april-deliveries-covid-51651420731?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-li-auto-xpeng-bad-april-deliveries-covid-51651420731?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2232730431","content_text":"Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPeng and Li Auto reported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That gives Tesla investors something else to worry about.NIO (ticker: NIO) delivered 5,074 vehicles in April, down from about 10,000 delivered in March and down from about 7,100 delivered in April of 2021.Looking ahead, Wall Street expects NIO to deliver about 31,000 vehicles in the second quarter, up from about 26,000 delivered in the first quarter of 2022. This isn’t a good start to the quarter.Covid appears to be the reason. “In late March and April 2022, the Company’s vehicle production and delivery have been impacted by the supply chain volatilities and other constraints caused by a new wave of the COVID-19 outbreaks in certain regions in China,” reads NIO’s news release.That isn’t a surprise. Investors have known about Covid-related production problems in China for weeks. Covid lockdowns in Shanghai, for instance, shut Tesla’s plant in the area for weeks, costing Tesla (TSLA) perhaps 15,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2022. Tesla ended up delivering about 310,000 vehicles, just up from the 309,000 delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021.Li Auto (LI) delivered 4,167 vehicles in April, down from about 11,000 delivered in March and down from about 5,500 delivered in April 2021.Looking ahead, Wall Street expects Li sales to grow to about $1.9 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.5 billion projected for the first quarter. Li delivered almost 32,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022.Li talked about Covid in its news release, too: “The COVID-19 resurgence in the Yangtze Delta region continues to cause severe industry-wide disruptions in supply chain, logistics and production since late March.” Li makes cars in Changzhou, in the center of the region, and gets most of the parts for its cars locally.XPeng (XPEV) results look a little better that Li or NIO numbers. XPeng delivered 9,002 vehicles in April, down from about 15,000 vehicles delivered in March, but up from about 5,000 delivered in April 2021.Looking ahead, Wall Street expects XPeng sales to grow to about $1.3 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.1 billion projected for the first quarter of 2022. XPeng delivered almost 35,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021.XPeng referenced Covid in its news release as well.Combined, the three delivered about 18,000 vehicles in April. That’s the worse monthly result since May 2021 and below the roughly 21,000 combined vehicle delivers in February 2022–when the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday impacted results. But the silver lining is year-to-date, deliveries are up 73% year over year, driven by gains from Li and XPeng.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086662812,"gmtCreate":1650450709948,"gmtModify":1676534726564,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What a load of rubblsh!&nbsp;","listText":"What a load of rubblsh!&nbsp;","text":"What a load of rubblsh!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086662812","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value &amp; FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016143559,"gmtCreate":1649157577356,"gmtModify":1676534460355,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why speak the obvious? Just buy&nbsp;","listText":"Why speak the obvious? Just buy&nbsp;","text":"Why speak the obvious? Just buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016143559","repostId":"2225304673","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225304673","pubTimestamp":1649171373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225304673?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 23:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: After A ~60% Rally, There's More In Store","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225304673","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least a mild recession looming. However, what we have today is very strong up moves in growth leaders, which must be respected regardless of your view on the outlook for the rest of the year.</p><p>One such growth leader is <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA), which is up almost 60% since the bottom it made just over a month ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216590ddcd33c72a94dc961eb2b82eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>StockCharts</p><p>The daily chart shows a downtrend line from the ATH that was made late last year, and which proved to be resistance in the past few trading days. I don’t believe this will be a persistent issue for Tesla, but is something that could cause a temporary delay in the rally. Once Tesla clears that downtrend line, next resistance is the prior relative high at $1,200, and then finally, the ATH near $1,250. Tesla will crest those, I believe; it is just a matter of when.</p><p>The accumulation/distribution line remains tremendously strong and is at its own all-time high, indicating this rally is once again the real deal. That’s not surprising given Tesla’s prior leadership, but it’s good to see nonetheless.</p><p>The PPO made its way well into bullish territory, which is a great sign for the long-term health of this bull run. It’s pulling back slightly now but remember we saw a nearly 60% move in the space of a few weeks, so it needs to come back a bit. Moves like this in the PPO show very strong bullish momentum that portends more strength in the weeks ahead.</p><p>The same is true of the 14-day RSI, which reached overbought territory. That’s yet another bullish sign that shows buying momentum is strong, and after a consolidation/pullback, I fully expect this move to continue.</p><p>Let’s now briefly look at the weekly chart, because I think there’s further proof we’re closer to the beginning of this rally than the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/4/4/5847171-16490695942655022.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>StockCharts</p><p>The weekly PPO recently tested the centerline after being overbought for some time, and has turned higher. The last time this happened, the stock ran from just over $500 to its ATH at $1,243. That doesn’t guarantee the same sort of thing this time, but it definitely helps. Big transitions like this in weekly charts often portend bigger, longer-term moves, and that’s what I think we’re seeing in Tesla right now.</p><p>Now, Tesla is in process of splitting its stock (again), a move that catalyzed the move to the ATH last year. Investors love a stock split and this is either a bullish catalyst, or no catalyst at all. In other words, the split will either produce further rallying from FOMO’ing investors, or it won’t change anything; it&#39;s not a negative catalyst. I personally don’t understand the obsession with buying splitting stocks because the actual impact to shareholders is nothing, but as I mentioned, splitting kicked off a massive rally last year, and it could do the same this time around.</p><p>In addition, Tesla is due to report earnings in about three weeks, and the stock tends to rally into earnings. What happens after the report comes out is another matter, but there is a good chance this buying continues through the end of April, as Tesla is due out with earnings on the 26th.</p><p>To be clear, the split and the earnings date are not part of the core bullish thesis here, but they are key short-term catalysts that could keep the stock afloat in the weeks ahead.</p><h2>Tesla keeps delivering</h2><p>The reason Tesla has delivered world-beating returns over the years is because, well, its business has been unbelievably strong. You don’t reach a trillion dollar valuation through luck, and the fact is that Tesla continues to outpace its competition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9f94b2a445ebec61e56ba6428aa207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Revenue revisions have been a bit choppy, but over time, they go higher. Despite the fact that we’ve seen meteoric rises in revenue over the years, trend is still higher. This is what you want/need from growth stocks that you own, because the second revenue estimates begin to roll over, the stock price will follow suit. That’s why Tesla is volatile, and that volatility will remain for the foreseeable future. However, if you can stomach the up and down moves, you stand to do well over time.</p><p>Tesla’s specific growth catalysts are tied to vehicle production, which it has continued to ramp over time. The company has facilities in Germany, China, and the US pumping out vehicles at ever-increasing rates, and that’s because Tesla continues to ramp production to meet ramping demand. As the company can decrease the cost of production per unit, it can either lower prices, or keep more revenue as operating profit. As we can see below, Tesla’s growth rate continues to blow past the competition globally, and as long as this is the case, Tesla’s share price will almost certainly move higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31aebbc3b67f7c0fb3b361dca6dc3e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investor presentation</p><p>If anyone needs a reason why Tesla is valued so highly against other automakers, I believe this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> chart here is all you need to understand. When a company is so dominant, the share price follows, and Tesla isn’t any different.</p><p>Now, I mentioned operating profits, which Tesla has done an exemplary job of improving in recent quarters after so many years of losses. Below we have trailing-twelve-months, or TTM, operating profits as a percentage of revenue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91743b7e140a79259184dbc124d2d471\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>We know Tesla has world-beating gross margins on its cars and services, but up until a couple of years ago, that margin was spent on relatively inefficient production. Production is much more efficient now, thanks to the ramping of new factories built to produce a lot of vehicles at lower costs, and the growth in operating margins has been nothing short of outstanding.</p><p>These are the kinds of margins the likes of the Big 3 and European automakers would drool over, but Tesla is doing it, with further improvements likely ahead.</p><p>Operating margin growth is subject to continued growth rates in vehicle production, which lowers per-unit costs, which will be offset somewhat by rising SG&amp;A costs, as well as input cost inflation. Batteries in particular take a lot of expensive raw materials, and with supply chain shortages and geopolitical risk of some of these commodities, Tesla isn’t immune to input cost shocks from time to time. However, on the whole, it’s employing a tried and true strategy of boosting production to lower per-unit costs, and I don’t see input cost inflation as a big derailer at the moment.</p><p>Let’s now take a look at cash flow, because for many years, Tesla was cash flow negative, which created nearly constant financing issues. However, positive operating profits have fixed that issue, as we’ll see below with TTM operating cash flow and capex, both in millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2880b04e5cacd1d6f033f9fd41d8bd41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>The growth here has been exponential, and what’s interesting is that Tesla is not sitting back and collecting this new found cash; it is investing most of it. Capex was $8 billion in the TTM period, against operating cash flow of $11.5 billion, so Tesla is investing heavily in future growth while funding its operations. While that sounds like a given, for many years the company was unable to do this, and issued a huge amount of stock to fund operations. That was a headwind for shareholders, but I do think that headwind has well and truly gone.</p><p>Below we have the share count and the YoY change for the past several years to see what I’m on about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2c53ea6f3ab1fdee88f1fa6e24c0fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>You can see some pretty massive moves in the share count over time, but the past few quarters have seen essentially no movement in the share count. For a company with a history of diluting shareholders, you cannot really say investors are out of the woods entirely. However, because Tesla has ample cash flow to invest in the business <i>and</i> run its operations, you have to say the incentive for Tesla to issue more shares is certainly reduced. This isn’t a tailwind for the stock, but it does effectively remove a headwind, which is sort of the same thing.</p><p>Indeed, this set of conditions has enormously improved Tesla’s balance sheet, which we can measure via net debt, which is below in millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337b199bd17e0714458a637de7193d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>Net debt is negative, meaning Tesla has more cash than obligations by almost $9 billion. That gives it supreme financial flexibility, which should scare competitors. Tesla was always hindered by its lack of financial flexibility, but that is no longer the case, and it can do essentially whatever it needs to do in order to compete and win.</p><h2>Squint to see the value</h2><p>Of course, valuing a stock like this takes some faith because you’re buying a stream of future growth that may or may not occur. In Tesla’s case, I believe it is doing everything it needs to do to win in the future, but there are risks that it may not be able to overcome. We’ll get to that in a second, but for now, let’s take a look at earnings and the valuation to see what’s what.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4921a31b085b778a7a18c4c4d5da0ff3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Seeking Alpha</p><p>EPS revisions remain very strong, which you’d expect given the company’s ramping revenue and soaring profit margins. This virtuous cycle is incredibly lucrative for shareholders, and you can see the product of it above. As long as these lines move up and to the right, Tesla shares should do very well. I have zero concerns about this and I believe EPS revisions support an ever-higher share price.</p><p>Now, let’s take a look at the valuation, which we can use price-to-sales for; it’s plotted below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a629edeeaa941e86715f05b601ba5f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>This stock is never going to be “cheap” in the traditional sense; it’s a disruptor in a gargantuan industry with world-beating growth rates. Thus, comparing it to the old-world manufacturers is useless, but we can compare it to its own history. Shares go for 13X forward sales today, which is somewhat elevated against its historical mean. The stock has been 15X forward sales or better a handful of times, but the point here is that Tesla looks pretty fairly valued to me. I don’t think it’s particularly cheap right now, which raises the risk of a consolidation or pullback to help with the valuation.</p><p>One thing that’s very clear to me is that if Tesla pulls back to 10X or 11X sales, it’s a screaming buy. The times that has happened in the past were outstanding buying chances, with the most recent one being its trip to $700 earlier this year. Something to keep in mind going forward but for now, the stock looks fairly valued to me.</p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>The valuation is one risk, because Tesla is much closer to the top of its historical valuation range than the bottom. That doesn’t mean it absolutely has to revisit 10X forward sales, but the point is that I think valuation expansion from here is likely limited for the time being. That increases the risk to the bulls.</p><p>In addition, input cost inflation is a real threat to margins. It shouldn’t impact unit sales – unless raw materials simply become unavailable – but it is already impacting operating margins, and certainly could in the months to come. I believe the company can raise prices and/or offset some of this with manufacturing efficiencies, but input cost inflation is largely out of Tesla’s control, and is a risk to consider if you’re bullish.</p><p>While I noted share issuances have decreased enormously in the past few quarters, Tesla has proven it is willing to use its stock as an ATM in the past, and that could certainly be the case going forward. Employee compensation and share issuances for corporate purposes could drive the share count ever higher over time, which dilutes shareholders, and makes it more difficult for the price to move higher.</p><p>Finally, the biggest risk to Tesla is that unit sales rates fall off of their current trajectory. An automaker with a valuation of 13X forward sales is pricing in a huge amount of future growth. I don’t believe we have any reason to think we won’t see that growth, given Tesla’s history of delivering. However, it is possible the growth trajectory doesn’t meet expectations, and the share price would suffer if this were to occur. In fact, Q1 deliveries were a bit light against expectations, so it’s a real risk.</p><p>Despite all of this, I still think Tesla has ample room to grow in the years to come, and I think the share price will ultimately go much higher. We’ve had a massive move in the past few weeks, and the stock looks fairly valued, so it wouldn’t be unusual to see a consolidation or pullback. However, any such event would be a chance to buy, and I’m quite bullish on Tesla despite its big move.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: After A ~60% Rally, There's More In Store</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: After A ~60% Rally, There's More In Store\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-05 23:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499688-tesla-after-a-60-percent-rally-theres-more-in-store><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499688-tesla-after-a-60-percent-rally-theres-more-in-store\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499688-tesla-after-a-60-percent-rally-theres-more-in-store","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2225304673","content_text":"Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least a mild recession looming. However, what we have today is very strong up moves in growth leaders, which must be respected regardless of your view on the outlook for the rest of the year.One such growth leader is Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which is up almost 60% since the bottom it made just over a month ago.StockChartsThe daily chart shows a downtrend line from the ATH that was made late last year, and which proved to be resistance in the past few trading days. I don’t believe this will be a persistent issue for Tesla, but is something that could cause a temporary delay in the rally. Once Tesla clears that downtrend line, next resistance is the prior relative high at $1,200, and then finally, the ATH near $1,250. Tesla will crest those, I believe; it is just a matter of when.The accumulation/distribution line remains tremendously strong and is at its own all-time high, indicating this rally is once again the real deal. That’s not surprising given Tesla’s prior leadership, but it’s good to see nonetheless.The PPO made its way well into bullish territory, which is a great sign for the long-term health of this bull run. It’s pulling back slightly now but remember we saw a nearly 60% move in the space of a few weeks, so it needs to come back a bit. Moves like this in the PPO show very strong bullish momentum that portends more strength in the weeks ahead.The same is true of the 14-day RSI, which reached overbought territory. That’s yet another bullish sign that shows buying momentum is strong, and after a consolidation/pullback, I fully expect this move to continue.Let’s now briefly look at the weekly chart, because I think there’s further proof we’re closer to the beginning of this rally than the end.StockChartsThe weekly PPO recently tested the centerline after being overbought for some time, and has turned higher. The last time this happened, the stock ran from just over $500 to its ATH at $1,243. That doesn’t guarantee the same sort of thing this time, but it definitely helps. Big transitions like this in weekly charts often portend bigger, longer-term moves, and that’s what I think we’re seeing in Tesla right now.Now, Tesla is in process of splitting its stock (again), a move that catalyzed the move to the ATH last year. Investors love a stock split and this is either a bullish catalyst, or no catalyst at all. In other words, the split will either produce further rallying from FOMO’ing investors, or it won’t change anything; it's not a negative catalyst. I personally don’t understand the obsession with buying splitting stocks because the actual impact to shareholders is nothing, but as I mentioned, splitting kicked off a massive rally last year, and it could do the same this time around.In addition, Tesla is due to report earnings in about three weeks, and the stock tends to rally into earnings. What happens after the report comes out is another matter, but there is a good chance this buying continues through the end of April, as Tesla is due out with earnings on the 26th.To be clear, the split and the earnings date are not part of the core bullish thesis here, but they are key short-term catalysts that could keep the stock afloat in the weeks ahead.Tesla keeps deliveringThe reason Tesla has delivered world-beating returns over the years is because, well, its business has been unbelievably strong. You don’t reach a trillion dollar valuation through luck, and the fact is that Tesla continues to outpace its competition.Seeking AlphaRevenue revisions have been a bit choppy, but over time, they go higher. Despite the fact that we’ve seen meteoric rises in revenue over the years, trend is still higher. This is what you want/need from growth stocks that you own, because the second revenue estimates begin to roll over, the stock price will follow suit. That’s why Tesla is volatile, and that volatility will remain for the foreseeable future. However, if you can stomach the up and down moves, you stand to do well over time.Tesla’s specific growth catalysts are tied to vehicle production, which it has continued to ramp over time. The company has facilities in Germany, China, and the US pumping out vehicles at ever-increasing rates, and that’s because Tesla continues to ramp production to meet ramping demand. As the company can decrease the cost of production per unit, it can either lower prices, or keep more revenue as operating profit. As we can see below, Tesla’s growth rate continues to blow past the competition globally, and as long as this is the case, Tesla’s share price will almost certainly move higher.Investor presentationIf anyone needs a reason why Tesla is valued so highly against other automakers, I believe this one chart here is all you need to understand. When a company is so dominant, the share price follows, and Tesla isn’t any different.Now, I mentioned operating profits, which Tesla has done an exemplary job of improving in recent quarters after so many years of losses. Below we have trailing-twelve-months, or TTM, operating profits as a percentage of revenue.TIKRWe know Tesla has world-beating gross margins on its cars and services, but up until a couple of years ago, that margin was spent on relatively inefficient production. Production is much more efficient now, thanks to the ramping of new factories built to produce a lot of vehicles at lower costs, and the growth in operating margins has been nothing short of outstanding.These are the kinds of margins the likes of the Big 3 and European automakers would drool over, but Tesla is doing it, with further improvements likely ahead.Operating margin growth is subject to continued growth rates in vehicle production, which lowers per-unit costs, which will be offset somewhat by rising SG&A costs, as well as input cost inflation. Batteries in particular take a lot of expensive raw materials, and with supply chain shortages and geopolitical risk of some of these commodities, Tesla isn’t immune to input cost shocks from time to time. However, on the whole, it’s employing a tried and true strategy of boosting production to lower per-unit costs, and I don’t see input cost inflation as a big derailer at the moment.Let’s now take a look at cash flow, because for many years, Tesla was cash flow negative, which created nearly constant financing issues. However, positive operating profits have fixed that issue, as we’ll see below with TTM operating cash flow and capex, both in millions of dollars.TIKRThe growth here has been exponential, and what’s interesting is that Tesla is not sitting back and collecting this new found cash; it is investing most of it. Capex was $8 billion in the TTM period, against operating cash flow of $11.5 billion, so Tesla is investing heavily in future growth while funding its operations. While that sounds like a given, for many years the company was unable to do this, and issued a huge amount of stock to fund operations. That was a headwind for shareholders, but I do think that headwind has well and truly gone.Below we have the share count and the YoY change for the past several years to see what I’m on about.TIKRYou can see some pretty massive moves in the share count over time, but the past few quarters have seen essentially no movement in the share count. For a company with a history of diluting shareholders, you cannot really say investors are out of the woods entirely. However, because Tesla has ample cash flow to invest in the business and run its operations, you have to say the incentive for Tesla to issue more shares is certainly reduced. This isn’t a tailwind for the stock, but it does effectively remove a headwind, which is sort of the same thing.Indeed, this set of conditions has enormously improved Tesla’s balance sheet, which we can measure via net debt, which is below in millions of dollars.TIKRNet debt is negative, meaning Tesla has more cash than obligations by almost $9 billion. That gives it supreme financial flexibility, which should scare competitors. Tesla was always hindered by its lack of financial flexibility, but that is no longer the case, and it can do essentially whatever it needs to do in order to compete and win.Squint to see the valueOf course, valuing a stock like this takes some faith because you’re buying a stream of future growth that may or may not occur. In Tesla’s case, I believe it is doing everything it needs to do to win in the future, but there are risks that it may not be able to overcome. We’ll get to that in a second, but for now, let’s take a look at earnings and the valuation to see what’s what.Seeking AlphaEPS revisions remain very strong, which you’d expect given the company’s ramping revenue and soaring profit margins. This virtuous cycle is incredibly lucrative for shareholders, and you can see the product of it above. As long as these lines move up and to the right, Tesla shares should do very well. I have zero concerns about this and I believe EPS revisions support an ever-higher share price.Now, let’s take a look at the valuation, which we can use price-to-sales for; it’s plotted below.TIKRThis stock is never going to be “cheap” in the traditional sense; it’s a disruptor in a gargantuan industry with world-beating growth rates. Thus, comparing it to the old-world manufacturers is useless, but we can compare it to its own history. Shares go for 13X forward sales today, which is somewhat elevated against its historical mean. The stock has been 15X forward sales or better a handful of times, but the point here is that Tesla looks pretty fairly valued to me. I don’t think it’s particularly cheap right now, which raises the risk of a consolidation or pullback to help with the valuation.One thing that’s very clear to me is that if Tesla pulls back to 10X or 11X sales, it’s a screaming buy. The times that has happened in the past were outstanding buying chances, with the most recent one being its trip to $700 earlier this year. Something to keep in mind going forward but for now, the stock looks fairly valued to me.Risks and final thoughtsThe valuation is one risk, because Tesla is much closer to the top of its historical valuation range than the bottom. That doesn’t mean it absolutely has to revisit 10X forward sales, but the point is that I think valuation expansion from here is likely limited for the time being. That increases the risk to the bulls.In addition, input cost inflation is a real threat to margins. It shouldn’t impact unit sales – unless raw materials simply become unavailable – but it is already impacting operating margins, and certainly could in the months to come. I believe the company can raise prices and/or offset some of this with manufacturing efficiencies, but input cost inflation is largely out of Tesla’s control, and is a risk to consider if you’re bullish.While I noted share issuances have decreased enormously in the past few quarters, Tesla has proven it is willing to use its stock as an ATM in the past, and that could certainly be the case going forward. Employee compensation and share issuances for corporate purposes could drive the share count ever higher over time, which dilutes shareholders, and makes it more difficult for the price to move higher.Finally, the biggest risk to Tesla is that unit sales rates fall off of their current trajectory. An automaker with a valuation of 13X forward sales is pricing in a huge amount of future growth. I don’t believe we have any reason to think we won’t see that growth, given Tesla’s history of delivering. However, it is possible the growth trajectory doesn’t meet expectations, and the share price would suffer if this were to occur. In fact, Q1 deliveries were a bit light against expectations, so it’s a real risk.Despite all of this, I still think Tesla has ample room to grow in the years to come, and I think the share price will ultimately go much higher. We’ve had a massive move in the past few weeks, and the stock looks fairly valued, so it wouldn’t be unusual to see a consolidation or pullback. However, any such event would be a chance to buy, and I’m quite bullish on Tesla despite its big move.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9990695757,"gmtCreate":1660347947981,"gmtModify":1676533453882,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A collection of the negatives Tesla faced . Good summary. Nothing about Tesla's strength. Got to read the latter to have a balanced view.&nbsp;","listText":"A collection of the negatives Tesla faced . Good summary. Nothing about Tesla's strength. Got to read the latter to have a balanced view.&nbsp;","text":"A collection of the negatives Tesla faced . Good summary. Nothing about Tesla's strength. Got to read the latter to have a balanced view.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990695757","repostId":"1157910275","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023767292,"gmtCreate":1652966114116,"gmtModify":1676535197674,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not only Tesla is falling, the whole market is down..&nbsp;","listText":"Not only Tesla is falling, the whole market is down..&nbsp;","text":"Not only Tesla is falling, the whole market is down..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023767292","repostId":"1152395035","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152395035","pubTimestamp":1652974277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152395035?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152395035","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer  Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan ofTesla or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand forelectric vehicles , like China and Europe, Te","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.</li><li>The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.</li><li>Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.</li></ul><p>I am not a fan of <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) or TSLA stock.</p><p>I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.</p><p>But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when <b>Chevrolet</b> is what the people want?</p><p>Dances With Bulls</p><p>If I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.</p><p>Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.</p><p>Bulls think Tesla is <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.</p><p>Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a <b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TM</u></b>) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even <b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GM</u></b>) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.</p><p>Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.</p><p>The Great Replacement</p><p>A walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.</p><p>Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.</p><p>Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.</p><p>Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, <b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCMKTS:<b><u>VWAGY</u></b>) and <b>Stellantis</b>(NYSE:<b><u>STLA</u></b>) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.</p><p>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</p><p>Bulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy <b>Twitter</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TWTR</u></b>) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.</p><p>The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.</p><p>Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.</p><p>My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Never Bought it and Never Will\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152395035","content_text":"Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when Chevrolet is what the people want?Dances With BullsIf I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.Bulls think Tesla is Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a Toyota(NYSE:TM) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even General Motors(NYSE:GM) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.The Great ReplacementA walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, Volkswagen(OTCMKTS:VWAGY) and Stellantis(NYSE:STLA) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockBulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy Twitter(NASDAQ:TWTR) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912145677,"gmtCreate":1664780682599,"gmtModify":1676537507396,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow... what a super negative piece linking all problems to Tsla stock pricedemise imminently ... believe ? Very hard&nbsp;","listText":"Wow... what a super negative piece linking all problems to Tsla stock pricedemise imminently ... believe ? Very hard&nbsp;","text":"Wow... what a super negative piece linking all problems to Tsla stock pricedemise imminently ... believe ? Very hard","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912145677","repostId":"1137600007","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137600007","pubTimestamp":1664774850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137600007?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 13:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Investors Are Skating On Thin Ice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137600007","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMy bearish thesis goes against the flow of current market investor trend.I base it on global business, political, and economic trends.Added to those are concerns that Elon Musk and other inside","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>My bearish thesis goes against the flow of current market investor trend.</li><li>I base it on global business, political, and economic trends.</li><li>Added to those are concerns that Elon Musk and other insiders have long been heavy sellers and - like its defective self-drive - they could cause Tesla to crash.</li><li>Many outsider investors do not want to know and just keep on skating despite the ice getting ever-thinner.</li><li>I recommend selling or staying away because, mostly, only dead fish go with the flow.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> has a strong base of retail investors who own around 37% of the stock, according to S&amp;P Global data. Many of those can only be described as Elon Musk worshippers and they account for much of Tesla&#39;s valuation that putsit way above other car makers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee0fbd48b025faf07859743bb35e4c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial Times/S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>But even Musk cannot walk on water and has demonstrated that by selling more than $15bn of shares this year in an apparent anticipation of the ice melt. So far Tesla&#39;s shares are down around 34% YTD. If he is compelled to go ahead with distracting takeover of Twitter (TWTR) for $44bn, he may have to sell a lot more. And had he had confidence the price would increase this year he would not have sold that large amount so early to prepare for an event that may still be months away.</p><p>I cannot walk on water either but I have been proved right since my first article <b>Tesla&#39;s Ticking Time Bomb</b> published on November 16, 2021, that advised investors to stay away</p><p>The following chart shows that:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365abe183f753e43487624317919d61\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial Times/S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>I strongly believe the ice will continue to crack and the price will sink much further, drowning those that stay with it.</p><p>That is a strong and very much contrarian statement given Tesla&#39;s incredibly good development under Elon Musk and I shall show some of those points here first, then expand on my outlook for a sinking future later.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s outstanding performance<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39490ba295fd38a06edef6f50b6fe926\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial Times/S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Tesla makes the most popular electric vehicles, EVs, in the world. In the last quarter its sales rose 42% continuing a trend that started in 2019 and taking profits up with those.</p><p>Despite that 34% decline YTD the stock price is around 1,200% over the past 5 years. Many Musk worshippers would say that it because it is tech stock but many tech stocks have collapsed some 70 to 80% in the market crash this year. Tesla is a car maker and it has done outstandingly well against other car makers as it has against most tech stocks.</p><p>The latest results from Tesla&#39;s website were good, but the Gross Margin is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e92045dc26f1b2ad4ba033b7a46a4e8\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Sales</b> in the current quarter are likely to be good as well.</p><p><b>Cash and cash equivalents</b> are good but in June this year Elon Musk said that Tesla’s new German and Texas factories were “gigantic money furnaces” losing “billions of dollars”. Billions will also be needed to build the additional giant factories required, as might the many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.</p><p>I will now move on to those...</p><p>Ice BreakersInternal ones...</p><p>Many are self-inflicted. I mentioned some of those inTesla Is Past Its Sell By Date.They included problems with the authorities in California, many lawsuits against them and a multitude of recall problems.</p><p>More have since been added to those recalls including 1.1 million cars mentioned in thisrecent SA report.</p><p>There are others too...</p><p>Bitcoin</p><p>Why Musk bought into this is a question I cannot answer as I see no connection with car making. He bought $1.5bn of Bitcoin on Feb 8,2021, at $46,365. The price as I write is $19,334, a plunge of 58%. Some has been sold but Tesla still has around 25% of that original bad buy.</p><p>Batteries</p><p>Tesla is spending billions building factories to make the batteries for its cars. That seems logical but others are doing so too meaning there will be a glut in the not too distant future. As it is Tesla sits way down in “Others&#34; in the world league of EV battery makers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfdb2bed521637cedcbb9ed98e224f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>LI-ion Battery Industry News</p><p>Solar</p><p>Using Tesla money, Musk rescued a loss solar panel builder owned by relatives. That sector has nothing to do with car making, is saturated with low-cost producers and Tesla has no chance - and never had - to become a global player, as it is with cars.</p><p>Robots</p><p>Tesla has just held its long-awaited AI Day event in Palo Alto, California. A prototype <b>Optimus</b> humanoid robot was shown off. Analysts think that could prove Tesla is a tech player as much as an automaker and think that creating a working prototype will move the company up a few notches if a production date for the first version of Tesla Bot is seen as being closer. Musk said “Our goal is to make a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible. There’s still a lot of work to be done to refine Optimus and prove it.”</p><p>He also wants to make it in huge volumes so that the price can become affordable for many thousands at around $20,000. I suspect most people would rather cut their own lawn and spend that money on something else.</p><p>Also, analysts might think that but <b>robots are not what investors in a car maker want</b> plus there are many well established robot makers already around the world; Swiss giantABB(ABB), Chinese owned German companyKuka, US conglomerateGE(GE) and many more. Near Tesla’s Palo Alto office,Agility Roboticsare pioneers in humanoid robot developments.</p><p>Tesla cars are built by robots and more complex ones are used for delicate surgical operations on the human body. Along the road from Palo Alto, in Sunnyvale, CA,Intuitive Surgical(ISRG) has long been the world leader in making those surgical robots.</p><p>Since Tesla is also aiming for self-driving cars, they will not be needed for that purpose either.</p><p>To make robots in the huge quantities Tesla envisages requires years in time and giga bucks being spent on building the factories!</p><p>One would have to be an Optimist to see how Optimus will make profits for Tesla shareholders in any foreseeable timeframe and perhaps ever.</p><p>I might take a more positive view if Musk soon announces an Opti <b>Mrs</b> that would look like my lovely wife but not have her Command and Control capabilities!</p><p>Talking of those, Musk broke through such capabilities - that German bureaucracies thought they had - in order to get the money burning factory there built. In many ways one could admire that but now those offended are getting their own back. Bloomberg recently reported thatElon Musk May Regret Putting Tesla’s First European Plant in Germany.</p><p>All those internally created problems are cash burners with Bitcoin, making solar panels and robots having nothing to do with growing Tesla as a world leading car maker. Those and Twitter plus Musk&#39;s other activities such as SpecEx are distractions from the job of growing Tesla.</p><p>In the above are several key words starting with the letter C, as does Contrarian. There are more C words to come in the...</p><p><b>External Ice Breakers</b></p><p><b>Competition</b> has become huge and is growing fast. All major car makers have been pouring billions of dollars into developing their own EVs and converting existing factories/building new ones in which to make those. Some are also building factories to make their own batteries.</p><p>Competition from <b>China</b> is coming fast. <b>China has for some time been the world’s largest car market and is now also the largest for electric cars.</b> Of those the largest is Chinese car BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF,OTCPK:BYDDY) that started as a battery maker. BYD stands for Build Your Dreams (比亚迪 bǐyàdí) and was founded by a guy - Wang Chuanfu - from a poor family background who became a professor at a research institute for non-ferrous metals in Beijing.</p><p>Today, he is among the world&#39;s richest men, because while in Beijing he had the vision that China’s startup battery producers could compete with Japan. In the mid-1990s, Wang relocated to Shenzhen just as it was transforming from a sleepy fishing village into a global manufacturing hub. The mass migration from rural areas gave the city’s factories the cheap labor they needed to compete with rivals in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. In the next 20 years, BYD in some ways followed the proven path among leading East Asian corporations of examining Japanese and U.S. products and finding ways to duplicate the basic technologies without actually making direct copies of them.</p><p>Today, BYD has overtaken South Korea’s LG as the world’s second-biggest producer of EV batteries, behind China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology, known as CATL.</p><p>Along the way, its EV unit was born in 2002 from an acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile, then the sixth-largest car manufacturer in China by sales volume. Wang took out the petrol engines from existing models and put in electric motors. In some ways he was ahead of Tesla and now is way ahead because Wang set about a process of mastering technologies from their finished batteries all the way to the lithium and nickel mines.</p><p>BYD is the largest EV maker in China and is now taking the first steps to export. Its prices are way lower than Tesla’s and its cars look ok too...</p><p>According to a recent SA report <b>Toyota</b>(TM) - the world&#39;s largest car maker is going to make alow cost EV for the Chinese market in a jv with BYD.</p><p><b>There are around 300 EV makers in China.</b> The Chinese government wants to whittle those down to around 30 by mergers in order to make them big and able to enter world markets too. Tesla is number three in China.</p><p>Leapmotor is one of those unknowns in the west that may one day be well known; Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology is seeking to raise as much as $1bn in what would be Hong Kong’s largest initial public offering this year, in the latest test of investor appetite for China’s fast-growing EV market. Leapmotor plans to raise as much as HK$8.1bn (US$1bn) from the sale of about 131mn shares in Hong Kong in a range of HK$48-HK$62 each.</p><p>A report from Merics says &#34;Europe is now the main target for electric vehicle exports from China.&#34;</p><p>New EV names are heading for US highways as are old established names. Many of those are detailed with photos in thisCar and Driver report</p><p><b>Many of those are targeting Tesla!</b> Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF) has said it aims to pass Tesla in EV sales by 2025. GM has said similar things. All are targeting a market that is not growing as fast as Tesla&#39;s production ambitions. As a visionary, Musk has achieved near miracles to get Tesla where it is today. However, it will need another miracle in the near future if his target of 20 million cars are to be made, and even aiming for them could put Tesla into reverse gear financially. At Tesla&#39;s last Cyber Round Up in Austin, Texas, Musk said the company would &#34;end up building at least 10 or 12 Gigafactories.&#34; Those <b>Gigafactories cost Gigabucks to build.</b> They also require years to build, and he needs them soon if he is to make <b>20 million cars per year by2030.</b> That means completion before the end of 2029 - just over 7 years away. None have been started, nor even have locations been announced!</p><p>In the unlikely event Tesla achieved that number, it would require another miracle to sell that many cars, because gaining 16.4% of the entire world car market - including ICEs - is probably impossible for any car maker.GlobeNewswiremade the 2030 estimate of total car market size in 2030 of 122.83 million units that I used to calculate that market share percentage. It makes worthwhile reading.</p><p>It also looks rather stupid ifS&amp;P Global&#39;s estimateof 26.8 million EV sales by 2030 proves correct. That would mean <b>Tesla has to achieve 75% EV market share!</b> It may have had that until now but there is no way it will by 2030.</p><p><b>Hydrogen fuelled cars</b>are all also hitting some roads in growing numbers. Toyota who led the world into hybrids are leading with that. Toyota’s Mirai - pictured below - looks good and is priced from $49,500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab951a2178f4987f13f493226d64de5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Toyota</p><p>Their fuel cells Elon Musk dismissed as fool cells. Those &#34;fool&#34; cells use much less lithium than batteries and growth in EV sales means lithium is becoming scarcer and more expensive so they may yet make Musk look like a fool.</p><p>Politics and Economics</p><p><b>China heads the list</b> for both. Economically it is growing still but the bigger threat for Tesla is political.</p><p>Among the latest flash points, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, a de-facto independent nation that China considers its territory, only stands to inflame tensions on the topic already stoked by President Biden’sconsistent undermining of US strategic ambiguity. Military drills conducted around the island following the visit have onlyraised alarms among Taiwanese military officials. In recent days, President Biden discarded ambiguity completely by saying the US will indeed defend Taiwan.</p><p>China is no innocent and such tensions could accidentally trigger a new world war. Hopefully, that will not happen but Tesla’s huge investment in China is a sitting target in a trade war with the US.</p><p>Elon Musk’s SpaceX company may also compound Tesla’s potential problems in China. The South China Morning Post published this article, titled &#34;China military must be able to destroy Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites if they threaten national security.&#34;</p><p>There are also many reports that the Chinese government sees Tesla’s cars as a spying threat, having banned them in places requiring tight security and stopped government departments from buying them for official use. Thisgetjerry reporttells some of that story.</p><p>Given the influence the government has over its people, it could easily encourage them to buy Chinese brands in preference to Tesla.</p><p><b>Emerging markets.</b>The ice has already cracked for some of those such as Sri Lanka and they are <b>now submerging markets.</b> They will not be car buying markets.</p><p><b>Europe.</b>The fundamentals are not good for any car maker at present.</p><p><b>Britainis again the sick man of Europe</b>- an accolade it enjoyed in the 1970s- and now renamed <b>Stagnation Nation</b>. Today it has C words in abundance; a housing<b>c</b>risis, a healthcare<b>c</b>risis, an energy<b>c</b>risis, a<b>c</b>ost of living<b>c</b>risis and now a<b>c</b>urrency<b>c</b>risis too, the latter caused by a<b>c</b>ivil war. It is no surprise that the Bank of England projects British households are facing the biggest collapse in living standards since such records were first kept 60 years ago. The chief economist at that monetary policy custodian - the BoE - said the UK government&#39;s recent mini-budget loosening of fiscal policy &#34;will require a significant monetary response&#34;. That response means raising interest rates thus making things worse and that civil war has driven <b>British pound down to record lows</b> in a country already in recession and heavily dependent on imports of many things. That means Tesla&#39;s cars - all of which are imported - have become more expensive unless Tesla absorbs the difference.</p><p>Those warring policy makers there have had the BoE buying bonds while the Treasury needs to sell them to fund tax cuts! They have become the real life manifestation of the mythical Doctor Dolittle Pushmi-Pullyu creature which has two heads at opposite ends of the body pulling in opposite directions.</p><p>That creature was a Do Little but its re-creators in Britain are doing a huge amount of economic damage!</p><p>I may have used a lot of words on Britain - a country that may not be of importance to most investors and nor to me - but until fairly recently it was the 4th largest car market in the world and remains a large one ...for now.</p><p><b>Germany</b> is also a recession or nearly so. It is Europe&#39;s largest economy and the world&#39;s 4th largest.</p><p>Cars are aconsumer discretionary and sales crash in recessions taking Tesla&#39;s (and others) stock price down with it.</p><p><b>The US</b> is in ok shape for now with employment in relatively good shape but a less obvious civil war is taking place there too with tight fiscal/loose monetary combination pulling in opposite directions. Maybe <b>contagion</b> from Britain’s illness is happening in the US.</p><p>President Biden&#39;s new Inflation Reduction Act introduced a spending boost of $467bn that a much more hawkish Fed is trying to counter with higher interest rates to stop spending. That has already pushed 30 year mortgage rates over 7%. Buying a house and other essentials is more important than buying a new car.</p><p>The concern about people not buying cars with those that do having more and more EV brands to choose from means many investors have already headed back onto firm ground.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s stock price is below the 200 day moving average...<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9be350238860071dbd4bb85f95ba3fe\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>BTIG and Bloomberg</p><p>But not all are heading for safety given the</p><p><b>Investment Ratings...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39e3287af16f23cad0736759be90e1bc\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"52\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNBC</p><p>The Financial Times shows 37 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Tesla Inc have a median target of 333.33, with a high estimate of 461.00 and a low estimate of 24.33. The median estimate represents a 25.66% increase from the last price of 265.25.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082feafec508738c83ee30aed6458e8b\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The vast majority of those analysts say the price will increase leaving <b>very few in the contrarian camp - that includes myself.</b></p><p>That differing conclusion is made more stark by the fact those analysts also know - or should know - that much of the world is in or near recession when car sales crumble plus the other danger factors I mention.</p><p>SA ratings summary...</p><p>SA Authors Hold 3.10</p><p>Wall Street Buy 3.86</p><p>Quant Hold 3.47</p><p><b>Insider sentiment may summarise it all:</b> Elon Musk and other insiders have long been sellers. The last time one of them bought was in 2019. Musk sold even more just a few weeks ago, in August!</p><p>Joining all those dots leads me also to only one conclusion...</p><p>Tesla Investors Are Skating On Thin Ice</p><p>Musk selling is tantamount to pulling the rug out from underneath investors.</p><p>He and the company face many challenges including potentially very damaging legal ones.</p><p>In my opinion his diversification into unrelated areas of business is both a distraction and a misuse of Tesla shareholders money.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s price has long been at a PE multiple far higher than any other car maker during a time it was virtually alone and far ahead of all in making EVs. Today the EV market will soon be crowded in a worsening economic and political climate.</p><p>Musk’s diversification into unrelated and overcrowded areas has been the downfall of all conglomerates in the past and may be is provingPeter’s Principleright!</p><p>Tesla faces a mountain of challenges many of which have built up over a long time and remain unresolved with more added in recent times plus recessions now adding to those.</p><p>Despite all that the majority of analysts - most of whom work for large, respected organisations - only see upside from here.</p><p>Earlier this year my target was $100. That was before the split, meaning around $34 now.</p><p>My conclusion is therefore starkly opposite those optimistic analysts. I see that above <b>low forecast of $24.33</b> within the next 12 months as being <b>closer to the mark</b> than any of the others.</p><p>Contrarian view that maybe but I am staying well away from Tesla and recommend that others get off that thin ice soon...before it finally cracks under them!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Investors Are Skating On Thin Ice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Investors Are Skating On Thin Ice\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 13:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544232-tesla-investors-are-skating-on-thin-ice><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMy bearish thesis goes against the flow of current market investor trend.I base it on global business, political, and economic trends.Added to those are concerns that Elon Musk and other ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544232-tesla-investors-are-skating-on-thin-ice\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544232-tesla-investors-are-skating-on-thin-ice","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137600007","content_text":"SummaryMy bearish thesis goes against the flow of current market investor trend.I base it on global business, political, and economic trends.Added to those are concerns that Elon Musk and other insiders have long been heavy sellers and - like its defective self-drive - they could cause Tesla to crash.Many outsider investors do not want to know and just keep on skating despite the ice getting ever-thinner.I recommend selling or staying away because, mostly, only dead fish go with the flow.Tesla has a strong base of retail investors who own around 37% of the stock, according to S&P Global data. Many of those can only be described as Elon Musk worshippers and they account for much of Tesla's valuation that putsit way above other car makers.Financial Times/S&P Capital IQBut even Musk cannot walk on water and has demonstrated that by selling more than $15bn of shares this year in an apparent anticipation of the ice melt. So far Tesla's shares are down around 34% YTD. If he is compelled to go ahead with distracting takeover of Twitter (TWTR) for $44bn, he may have to sell a lot more. And had he had confidence the price would increase this year he would not have sold that large amount so early to prepare for an event that may still be months away.I cannot walk on water either but I have been proved right since my first article Tesla's Ticking Time Bomb published on November 16, 2021, that advised investors to stay awayThe following chart shows that:Financial Times/S&P Capital IQI strongly believe the ice will continue to crack and the price will sink much further, drowning those that stay with it.That is a strong and very much contrarian statement given Tesla's incredibly good development under Elon Musk and I shall show some of those points here first, then expand on my outlook for a sinking future later.Tesla's outstanding performanceFinancial Times/S&P Capital IQTesla makes the most popular electric vehicles, EVs, in the world. In the last quarter its sales rose 42% continuing a trend that started in 2019 and taking profits up with those.Despite that 34% decline YTD the stock price is around 1,200% over the past 5 years. Many Musk worshippers would say that it because it is tech stock but many tech stocks have collapsed some 70 to 80% in the market crash this year. Tesla is a car maker and it has done outstandingly well against other car makers as it has against most tech stocks.The latest results from Tesla's website were good, but the Gross Margin is declining.Sales in the current quarter are likely to be good as well.Cash and cash equivalents are good but in June this year Elon Musk said that Tesla’s new German and Texas factories were “gigantic money furnaces” losing “billions of dollars”. Billions will also be needed to build the additional giant factories required, as might the many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.I will now move on to those...Ice BreakersInternal ones...Many are self-inflicted. I mentioned some of those inTesla Is Past Its Sell By Date.They included problems with the authorities in California, many lawsuits against them and a multitude of recall problems.More have since been added to those recalls including 1.1 million cars mentioned in thisrecent SA report.There are others too...BitcoinWhy Musk bought into this is a question I cannot answer as I see no connection with car making. He bought $1.5bn of Bitcoin on Feb 8,2021, at $46,365. The price as I write is $19,334, a plunge of 58%. Some has been sold but Tesla still has around 25% of that original bad buy.BatteriesTesla is spending billions building factories to make the batteries for its cars. That seems logical but others are doing so too meaning there will be a glut in the not too distant future. As it is Tesla sits way down in “Others\" in the world league of EV battery makersLI-ion Battery Industry NewsSolarUsing Tesla money, Musk rescued a loss solar panel builder owned by relatives. That sector has nothing to do with car making, is saturated with low-cost producers and Tesla has no chance - and never had - to become a global player, as it is with cars.RobotsTesla has just held its long-awaited AI Day event in Palo Alto, California. A prototype Optimus humanoid robot was shown off. Analysts think that could prove Tesla is a tech player as much as an automaker and think that creating a working prototype will move the company up a few notches if a production date for the first version of Tesla Bot is seen as being closer. Musk said “Our goal is to make a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible. There’s still a lot of work to be done to refine Optimus and prove it.”He also wants to make it in huge volumes so that the price can become affordable for many thousands at around $20,000. I suspect most people would rather cut their own lawn and spend that money on something else.Also, analysts might think that but robots are not what investors in a car maker want plus there are many well established robot makers already around the world; Swiss giantABB(ABB), Chinese owned German companyKuka, US conglomerateGE(GE) and many more. Near Tesla’s Palo Alto office,Agility Roboticsare pioneers in humanoid robot developments.Tesla cars are built by robots and more complex ones are used for delicate surgical operations on the human body. Along the road from Palo Alto, in Sunnyvale, CA,Intuitive Surgical(ISRG) has long been the world leader in making those surgical robots.Since Tesla is also aiming for self-driving cars, they will not be needed for that purpose either.To make robots in the huge quantities Tesla envisages requires years in time and giga bucks being spent on building the factories!One would have to be an Optimist to see how Optimus will make profits for Tesla shareholders in any foreseeable timeframe and perhaps ever.I might take a more positive view if Musk soon announces an Opti Mrs that would look like my lovely wife but not have her Command and Control capabilities!Talking of those, Musk broke through such capabilities - that German bureaucracies thought they had - in order to get the money burning factory there built. In many ways one could admire that but now those offended are getting their own back. Bloomberg recently reported thatElon Musk May Regret Putting Tesla’s First European Plant in Germany.All those internally created problems are cash burners with Bitcoin, making solar panels and robots having nothing to do with growing Tesla as a world leading car maker. Those and Twitter plus Musk's other activities such as SpecEx are distractions from the job of growing Tesla.In the above are several key words starting with the letter C, as does Contrarian. There are more C words to come in the...External Ice BreakersCompetition has become huge and is growing fast. All major car makers have been pouring billions of dollars into developing their own EVs and converting existing factories/building new ones in which to make those. Some are also building factories to make their own batteries.Competition from China is coming fast. China has for some time been the world’s largest car market and is now also the largest for electric cars. Of those the largest is Chinese car BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF,OTCPK:BYDDY) that started as a battery maker. BYD stands for Build Your Dreams (比亚迪 bǐyàdí) and was founded by a guy - Wang Chuanfu - from a poor family background who became a professor at a research institute for non-ferrous metals in Beijing.Today, he is among the world's richest men, because while in Beijing he had the vision that China’s startup battery producers could compete with Japan. In the mid-1990s, Wang relocated to Shenzhen just as it was transforming from a sleepy fishing village into a global manufacturing hub. The mass migration from rural areas gave the city’s factories the cheap labor they needed to compete with rivals in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. In the next 20 years, BYD in some ways followed the proven path among leading East Asian corporations of examining Japanese and U.S. products and finding ways to duplicate the basic technologies without actually making direct copies of them.Today, BYD has overtaken South Korea’s LG as the world’s second-biggest producer of EV batteries, behind China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology, known as CATL.Along the way, its EV unit was born in 2002 from an acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile, then the sixth-largest car manufacturer in China by sales volume. Wang took out the petrol engines from existing models and put in electric motors. In some ways he was ahead of Tesla and now is way ahead because Wang set about a process of mastering technologies from their finished batteries all the way to the lithium and nickel mines.BYD is the largest EV maker in China and is now taking the first steps to export. Its prices are way lower than Tesla’s and its cars look ok too...According to a recent SA report Toyota(TM) - the world's largest car maker is going to make alow cost EV for the Chinese market in a jv with BYD.There are around 300 EV makers in China. The Chinese government wants to whittle those down to around 30 by mergers in order to make them big and able to enter world markets too. Tesla is number three in China.Leapmotor is one of those unknowns in the west that may one day be well known; Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology is seeking to raise as much as $1bn in what would be Hong Kong’s largest initial public offering this year, in the latest test of investor appetite for China’s fast-growing EV market. Leapmotor plans to raise as much as HK$8.1bn (US$1bn) from the sale of about 131mn shares in Hong Kong in a range of HK$48-HK$62 each.A report from Merics says \"Europe is now the main target for electric vehicle exports from China.\"New EV names are heading for US highways as are old established names. Many of those are detailed with photos in thisCar and Driver reportMany of those are targeting Tesla! Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF) has said it aims to pass Tesla in EV sales by 2025. GM has said similar things. All are targeting a market that is not growing as fast as Tesla's production ambitions. As a visionary, Musk has achieved near miracles to get Tesla where it is today. However, it will need another miracle in the near future if his target of 20 million cars are to be made, and even aiming for them could put Tesla into reverse gear financially. At Tesla's last Cyber Round Up in Austin, Texas, Musk said the company would \"end up building at least 10 or 12 Gigafactories.\" Those Gigafactories cost Gigabucks to build. They also require years to build, and he needs them soon if he is to make 20 million cars per year by2030. That means completion before the end of 2029 - just over 7 years away. None have been started, nor even have locations been announced!In the unlikely event Tesla achieved that number, it would require another miracle to sell that many cars, because gaining 16.4% of the entire world car market - including ICEs - is probably impossible for any car maker.GlobeNewswiremade the 2030 estimate of total car market size in 2030 of 122.83 million units that I used to calculate that market share percentage. It makes worthwhile reading.It also looks rather stupid ifS&P Global's estimateof 26.8 million EV sales by 2030 proves correct. That would mean Tesla has to achieve 75% EV market share! It may have had that until now but there is no way it will by 2030.Hydrogen fuelled carsare all also hitting some roads in growing numbers. Toyota who led the world into hybrids are leading with that. Toyota’s Mirai - pictured below - looks good and is priced from $49,500.ToyotaTheir fuel cells Elon Musk dismissed as fool cells. Those \"fool\" cells use much less lithium than batteries and growth in EV sales means lithium is becoming scarcer and more expensive so they may yet make Musk look like a fool.Politics and EconomicsChina heads the list for both. Economically it is growing still but the bigger threat for Tesla is political.Among the latest flash points, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, a de-facto independent nation that China considers its territory, only stands to inflame tensions on the topic already stoked by President Biden’sconsistent undermining of US strategic ambiguity. Military drills conducted around the island following the visit have onlyraised alarms among Taiwanese military officials. In recent days, President Biden discarded ambiguity completely by saying the US will indeed defend Taiwan.China is no innocent and such tensions could accidentally trigger a new world war. Hopefully, that will not happen but Tesla’s huge investment in China is a sitting target in a trade war with the US.Elon Musk’s SpaceX company may also compound Tesla’s potential problems in China. The South China Morning Post published this article, titled \"China military must be able to destroy Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites if they threaten national security.\"There are also many reports that the Chinese government sees Tesla’s cars as a spying threat, having banned them in places requiring tight security and stopped government departments from buying them for official use. Thisgetjerry reporttells some of that story.Given the influence the government has over its people, it could easily encourage them to buy Chinese brands in preference to Tesla.Emerging markets.The ice has already cracked for some of those such as Sri Lanka and they are now submerging markets. They will not be car buying markets.Europe.The fundamentals are not good for any car maker at present.Britainis again the sick man of Europe- an accolade it enjoyed in the 1970s- and now renamed Stagnation Nation. Today it has C words in abundance; a housingcrisis, a healthcarecrisis, an energycrisis, acost of livingcrisis and now acurrencycrisis too, the latter caused by acivil war. It is no surprise that the Bank of England projects British households are facing the biggest collapse in living standards since such records were first kept 60 years ago. The chief economist at that monetary policy custodian - the BoE - said the UK government's recent mini-budget loosening of fiscal policy \"will require a significant monetary response\". That response means raising interest rates thus making things worse and that civil war has driven British pound down to record lows in a country already in recession and heavily dependent on imports of many things. That means Tesla's cars - all of which are imported - have become more expensive unless Tesla absorbs the difference.Those warring policy makers there have had the BoE buying bonds while the Treasury needs to sell them to fund tax cuts! They have become the real life manifestation of the mythical Doctor Dolittle Pushmi-Pullyu creature which has two heads at opposite ends of the body pulling in opposite directions.That creature was a Do Little but its re-creators in Britain are doing a huge amount of economic damage!I may have used a lot of words on Britain - a country that may not be of importance to most investors and nor to me - but until fairly recently it was the 4th largest car market in the world and remains a large one ...for now.Germany is also a recession or nearly so. It is Europe's largest economy and the world's 4th largest.Cars are aconsumer discretionary and sales crash in recessions taking Tesla's (and others) stock price down with it.The US is in ok shape for now with employment in relatively good shape but a less obvious civil war is taking place there too with tight fiscal/loose monetary combination pulling in opposite directions. Maybe contagion from Britain’s illness is happening in the US.President Biden's new Inflation Reduction Act introduced a spending boost of $467bn that a much more hawkish Fed is trying to counter with higher interest rates to stop spending. That has already pushed 30 year mortgage rates over 7%. Buying a house and other essentials is more important than buying a new car.The concern about people not buying cars with those that do having more and more EV brands to choose from means many investors have already headed back onto firm ground.Tesla's stock price is below the 200 day moving average...BTIG and BloombergBut not all are heading for safety given theInvestment Ratings...CNBCThe Financial Times shows 37 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Tesla Inc have a median target of 333.33, with a high estimate of 461.00 and a low estimate of 24.33. The median estimate represents a 25.66% increase from the last price of 265.25.The vast majority of those analysts say the price will increase leaving very few in the contrarian camp - that includes myself.That differing conclusion is made more stark by the fact those analysts also know - or should know - that much of the world is in or near recession when car sales crumble plus the other danger factors I mention.SA ratings summary...SA Authors Hold 3.10Wall Street Buy 3.86Quant Hold 3.47Insider sentiment may summarise it all: Elon Musk and other insiders have long been sellers. The last time one of them bought was in 2019. Musk sold even more just a few weeks ago, in August!Joining all those dots leads me also to only one conclusion...Tesla Investors Are Skating On Thin IceMusk selling is tantamount to pulling the rug out from underneath investors.He and the company face many challenges including potentially very damaging legal ones.In my opinion his diversification into unrelated areas of business is both a distraction and a misuse of Tesla shareholders money.Tesla's price has long been at a PE multiple far higher than any other car maker during a time it was virtually alone and far ahead of all in making EVs. Today the EV market will soon be crowded in a worsening economic and political climate.Musk’s diversification into unrelated and overcrowded areas has been the downfall of all conglomerates in the past and may be is provingPeter’s Principleright!Tesla faces a mountain of challenges many of which have built up over a long time and remain unresolved with more added in recent times plus recessions now adding to those.Despite all that the majority of analysts - most of whom work for large, respected organisations - only see upside from here.Earlier this year my target was $100. That was before the split, meaning around $34 now.My conclusion is therefore starkly opposite those optimistic analysts. I see that above low forecast of $24.33 within the next 12 months as being closer to the mark than any of the others.Contrarian view that maybe but I am staying well away from Tesla and recommend that others get off that thin ice soon...before it finally cracks under them!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063898537,"gmtCreate":1651450489095,"gmtModify":1676534906800,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Impact from covid affects all but Tesla should recover faster. Why only Tesla investors&nbsp;beware? &nbsp;Median to longer term, Tesla will do better&nbsp;","listText":"Impact from covid affects all but Tesla should recover faster. Why only Tesla investors&nbsp;beware? &nbsp;Median to longer term, Tesla will do better&nbsp;","text":"Impact from covid affects all but Tesla should recover faster. Why only Tesla investors beware? Median to longer term, Tesla will do better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063898537","repostId":"2232730431","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2232730431","pubTimestamp":1651446992,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232730431?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 07:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Investors Beware: Bad NIO, Li, XPeng April Deliveries Hit by Covid.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232730431","media":"Barrons","summary":"Chinese electric vehicle makersNIO,XPengandLi Autoreported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That givesTeslainvestors something else to worry about.NIO(ticker: NIO) del","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPeng and Li Auto reported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That gives Tesla investors something else to worry about.</p><p>NIO (ticker: NIO) delivered 5,074 vehicles in April, down from about 10,000 delivered in March and down from about 7,100 delivered in April of 2021.</p><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street expects NIO to deliver about 31,000 vehicles in the second quarter, up from about 26,000 delivered in the first quarter of 2022. This isn’t a good start to the quarter.</p><p>Covid appears to be the reason. “In late March and April 2022, the Company’s vehicle production and delivery have been impacted by the supply chain volatilities and other constraints caused by a new wave of the COVID-19 outbreaks in certain regions in China,” reads NIO’s news release.</p><p>That isn’t a surprise. Investors have known about Covid-related production problems in China for weeks. Covid lockdowns in Shanghai, for instance, shut Tesla’s plant in the area for weeks, costing Tesla (TSLA) perhaps 15,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2022. Tesla ended up delivering about 310,000 vehicles, just up from the 309,000 delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>Li Auto (LI) delivered 4,167 vehicles in April, down from about 11,000 delivered in March and down from about 5,500 delivered in April 2021.</p><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street expects Li sales to grow to about $1.9 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.5 billion projected for the first quarter. Li delivered almost 32,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Li talked about Covid in its news release, too: “The COVID-19 resurgence in the Yangtze Delta region continues to cause severe industry-wide disruptions in supply chain, logistics and production since late March.” Li makes cars in Changzhou, in the center of the region, and gets most of the parts for its cars locally.</p><p>XPeng (XPEV) results look a little better that Li or NIO numbers. XPeng delivered 9,002 vehicles in April, down from about 15,000 vehicles delivered in March, but up from about 5,000 delivered in April 2021.</p><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street expects XPeng sales to grow to about $1.3 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.1 billion projected for the first quarter of 2022. XPeng delivered almost 35,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>XPeng referenced Covid in its news release as well.</p><p>Combined, the three delivered about 18,000 vehicles in April. That’s the worse monthly result since May 2021 and below the roughly 21,000 combined vehicle delivers in February 2022–when the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday impacted results. But the silver lining is year-to-date, deliveries are up 73% year over year, driven by gains from Li and XPeng.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Investors Beware: Bad NIO, Li, XPeng April Deliveries Hit by Covid.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Investors Beware: Bad NIO, Li, XPeng April Deliveries Hit by Covid.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-02 07:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-li-auto-xpeng-bad-april-deliveries-covid-51651420731?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPeng and Li Auto reported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That gives Tesla investors something else to worry about.NIO (ticker: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-li-auto-xpeng-bad-april-deliveries-covid-51651420731?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-li-auto-xpeng-bad-april-deliveries-covid-51651420731?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2232730431","content_text":"Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPeng and Li Auto reported April deliveries on Sunday morning. The numbers aren’t very good. That gives Tesla investors something else to worry about.NIO (ticker: NIO) delivered 5,074 vehicles in April, down from about 10,000 delivered in March and down from about 7,100 delivered in April of 2021.Looking ahead, Wall Street expects NIO to deliver about 31,000 vehicles in the second quarter, up from about 26,000 delivered in the first quarter of 2022. This isn’t a good start to the quarter.Covid appears to be the reason. “In late March and April 2022, the Company’s vehicle production and delivery have been impacted by the supply chain volatilities and other constraints caused by a new wave of the COVID-19 outbreaks in certain regions in China,” reads NIO’s news release.That isn’t a surprise. Investors have known about Covid-related production problems in China for weeks. Covid lockdowns in Shanghai, for instance, shut Tesla’s plant in the area for weeks, costing Tesla (TSLA) perhaps 15,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2022. Tesla ended up delivering about 310,000 vehicles, just up from the 309,000 delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021.Li Auto (LI) delivered 4,167 vehicles in April, down from about 11,000 delivered in March and down from about 5,500 delivered in April 2021.Looking ahead, Wall Street expects Li sales to grow to about $1.9 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.5 billion projected for the first quarter. Li delivered almost 32,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022.Li talked about Covid in its news release, too: “The COVID-19 resurgence in the Yangtze Delta region continues to cause severe industry-wide disruptions in supply chain, logistics and production since late March.” Li makes cars in Changzhou, in the center of the region, and gets most of the parts for its cars locally.XPeng (XPEV) results look a little better that Li or NIO numbers. XPeng delivered 9,002 vehicles in April, down from about 15,000 vehicles delivered in March, but up from about 5,000 delivered in April 2021.Looking ahead, Wall Street expects XPeng sales to grow to about $1.3 billion in the second quarter, up from about $1.1 billion projected for the first quarter of 2022. XPeng delivered almost 35,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021.XPeng referenced Covid in its news release as well.Combined, the three delivered about 18,000 vehicles in April. That’s the worse monthly result since May 2021 and below the roughly 21,000 combined vehicle delivers in February 2022–when the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday impacted results. But the silver lining is year-to-date, deliveries are up 73% year over year, driven by gains from Li and XPeng.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016143559,"gmtCreate":1649157577356,"gmtModify":1676534460355,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why speak the obvious? Just buy&nbsp;","listText":"Why speak the obvious? Just buy&nbsp;","text":"Why speak the obvious? Just buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016143559","repostId":"2225304673","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225304673","pubTimestamp":1649171373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225304673?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 23:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: After A ~60% Rally, There's More In Store","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225304673","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least a mild recession looming. However, what we have today is very strong up moves in growth leaders, which must be respected regardless of your view on the outlook for the rest of the year.</p><p>One such growth leader is <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA), which is up almost 60% since the bottom it made just over a month ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216590ddcd33c72a94dc961eb2b82eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>StockCharts</p><p>The daily chart shows a downtrend line from the ATH that was made late last year, and which proved to be resistance in the past few trading days. I don’t believe this will be a persistent issue for Tesla, but is something that could cause a temporary delay in the rally. Once Tesla clears that downtrend line, next resistance is the prior relative high at $1,200, and then finally, the ATH near $1,250. Tesla will crest those, I believe; it is just a matter of when.</p><p>The accumulation/distribution line remains tremendously strong and is at its own all-time high, indicating this rally is once again the real deal. That’s not surprising given Tesla’s prior leadership, but it’s good to see nonetheless.</p><p>The PPO made its way well into bullish territory, which is a great sign for the long-term health of this bull run. It’s pulling back slightly now but remember we saw a nearly 60% move in the space of a few weeks, so it needs to come back a bit. Moves like this in the PPO show very strong bullish momentum that portends more strength in the weeks ahead.</p><p>The same is true of the 14-day RSI, which reached overbought territory. That’s yet another bullish sign that shows buying momentum is strong, and after a consolidation/pullback, I fully expect this move to continue.</p><p>Let’s now briefly look at the weekly chart, because I think there’s further proof we’re closer to the beginning of this rally than the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/4/4/5847171-16490695942655022.png\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>StockCharts</p><p>The weekly PPO recently tested the centerline after being overbought for some time, and has turned higher. The last time this happened, the stock ran from just over $500 to its ATH at $1,243. That doesn’t guarantee the same sort of thing this time, but it definitely helps. Big transitions like this in weekly charts often portend bigger, longer-term moves, and that’s what I think we’re seeing in Tesla right now.</p><p>Now, Tesla is in process of splitting its stock (again), a move that catalyzed the move to the ATH last year. Investors love a stock split and this is either a bullish catalyst, or no catalyst at all. In other words, the split will either produce further rallying from FOMO’ing investors, or it won’t change anything; it&#39;s not a negative catalyst. I personally don’t understand the obsession with buying splitting stocks because the actual impact to shareholders is nothing, but as I mentioned, splitting kicked off a massive rally last year, and it could do the same this time around.</p><p>In addition, Tesla is due to report earnings in about three weeks, and the stock tends to rally into earnings. What happens after the report comes out is another matter, but there is a good chance this buying continues through the end of April, as Tesla is due out with earnings on the 26th.</p><p>To be clear, the split and the earnings date are not part of the core bullish thesis here, but they are key short-term catalysts that could keep the stock afloat in the weeks ahead.</p><h2>Tesla keeps delivering</h2><p>The reason Tesla has delivered world-beating returns over the years is because, well, its business has been unbelievably strong. You don’t reach a trillion dollar valuation through luck, and the fact is that Tesla continues to outpace its competition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9f94b2a445ebec61e56ba6428aa207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Revenue revisions have been a bit choppy, but over time, they go higher. Despite the fact that we’ve seen meteoric rises in revenue over the years, trend is still higher. This is what you want/need from growth stocks that you own, because the second revenue estimates begin to roll over, the stock price will follow suit. That’s why Tesla is volatile, and that volatility will remain for the foreseeable future. However, if you can stomach the up and down moves, you stand to do well over time.</p><p>Tesla’s specific growth catalysts are tied to vehicle production, which it has continued to ramp over time. The company has facilities in Germany, China, and the US pumping out vehicles at ever-increasing rates, and that’s because Tesla continues to ramp production to meet ramping demand. As the company can decrease the cost of production per unit, it can either lower prices, or keep more revenue as operating profit. As we can see below, Tesla’s growth rate continues to blow past the competition globally, and as long as this is the case, Tesla’s share price will almost certainly move higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31aebbc3b67f7c0fb3b361dca6dc3e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investor presentation</p><p>If anyone needs a reason why Tesla is valued so highly against other automakers, I believe this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> chart here is all you need to understand. When a company is so dominant, the share price follows, and Tesla isn’t any different.</p><p>Now, I mentioned operating profits, which Tesla has done an exemplary job of improving in recent quarters after so many years of losses. Below we have trailing-twelve-months, or TTM, operating profits as a percentage of revenue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91743b7e140a79259184dbc124d2d471\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>We know Tesla has world-beating gross margins on its cars and services, but up until a couple of years ago, that margin was spent on relatively inefficient production. Production is much more efficient now, thanks to the ramping of new factories built to produce a lot of vehicles at lower costs, and the growth in operating margins has been nothing short of outstanding.</p><p>These are the kinds of margins the likes of the Big 3 and European automakers would drool over, but Tesla is doing it, with further improvements likely ahead.</p><p>Operating margin growth is subject to continued growth rates in vehicle production, which lowers per-unit costs, which will be offset somewhat by rising SG&amp;A costs, as well as input cost inflation. Batteries in particular take a lot of expensive raw materials, and with supply chain shortages and geopolitical risk of some of these commodities, Tesla isn’t immune to input cost shocks from time to time. However, on the whole, it’s employing a tried and true strategy of boosting production to lower per-unit costs, and I don’t see input cost inflation as a big derailer at the moment.</p><p>Let’s now take a look at cash flow, because for many years, Tesla was cash flow negative, which created nearly constant financing issues. However, positive operating profits have fixed that issue, as we’ll see below with TTM operating cash flow and capex, both in millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2880b04e5cacd1d6f033f9fd41d8bd41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>The growth here has been exponential, and what’s interesting is that Tesla is not sitting back and collecting this new found cash; it is investing most of it. Capex was $8 billion in the TTM period, against operating cash flow of $11.5 billion, so Tesla is investing heavily in future growth while funding its operations. While that sounds like a given, for many years the company was unable to do this, and issued a huge amount of stock to fund operations. That was a headwind for shareholders, but I do think that headwind has well and truly gone.</p><p>Below we have the share count and the YoY change for the past several years to see what I’m on about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2c53ea6f3ab1fdee88f1fa6e24c0fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>You can see some pretty massive moves in the share count over time, but the past few quarters have seen essentially no movement in the share count. For a company with a history of diluting shareholders, you cannot really say investors are out of the woods entirely. However, because Tesla has ample cash flow to invest in the business <i>and</i> run its operations, you have to say the incentive for Tesla to issue more shares is certainly reduced. This isn’t a tailwind for the stock, but it does effectively remove a headwind, which is sort of the same thing.</p><p>Indeed, this set of conditions has enormously improved Tesla’s balance sheet, which we can measure via net debt, which is below in millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337b199bd17e0714458a637de7193d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>Net debt is negative, meaning Tesla has more cash than obligations by almost $9 billion. That gives it supreme financial flexibility, which should scare competitors. Tesla was always hindered by its lack of financial flexibility, but that is no longer the case, and it can do essentially whatever it needs to do in order to compete and win.</p><h2>Squint to see the value</h2><p>Of course, valuing a stock like this takes some faith because you’re buying a stream of future growth that may or may not occur. In Tesla’s case, I believe it is doing everything it needs to do to win in the future, but there are risks that it may not be able to overcome. We’ll get to that in a second, but for now, let’s take a look at earnings and the valuation to see what’s what.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4921a31b085b778a7a18c4c4d5da0ff3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Seeking Alpha</p><p>EPS revisions remain very strong, which you’d expect given the company’s ramping revenue and soaring profit margins. This virtuous cycle is incredibly lucrative for shareholders, and you can see the product of it above. As long as these lines move up and to the right, Tesla shares should do very well. I have zero concerns about this and I believe EPS revisions support an ever-higher share price.</p><p>Now, let’s take a look at the valuation, which we can use price-to-sales for; it’s plotted below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a629edeeaa941e86715f05b601ba5f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TIKR</p><p>This stock is never going to be “cheap” in the traditional sense; it’s a disruptor in a gargantuan industry with world-beating growth rates. Thus, comparing it to the old-world manufacturers is useless, but we can compare it to its own history. Shares go for 13X forward sales today, which is somewhat elevated against its historical mean. The stock has been 15X forward sales or better a handful of times, but the point here is that Tesla looks pretty fairly valued to me. I don’t think it’s particularly cheap right now, which raises the risk of a consolidation or pullback to help with the valuation.</p><p>One thing that’s very clear to me is that if Tesla pulls back to 10X or 11X sales, it’s a screaming buy. The times that has happened in the past were outstanding buying chances, with the most recent one being its trip to $700 earlier this year. Something to keep in mind going forward but for now, the stock looks fairly valued to me.</p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>The valuation is one risk, because Tesla is much closer to the top of its historical valuation range than the bottom. That doesn’t mean it absolutely has to revisit 10X forward sales, but the point is that I think valuation expansion from here is likely limited for the time being. That increases the risk to the bulls.</p><p>In addition, input cost inflation is a real threat to margins. It shouldn’t impact unit sales – unless raw materials simply become unavailable – but it is already impacting operating margins, and certainly could in the months to come. I believe the company can raise prices and/or offset some of this with manufacturing efficiencies, but input cost inflation is largely out of Tesla’s control, and is a risk to consider if you’re bullish.</p><p>While I noted share issuances have decreased enormously in the past few quarters, Tesla has proven it is willing to use its stock as an ATM in the past, and that could certainly be the case going forward. Employee compensation and share issuances for corporate purposes could drive the share count ever higher over time, which dilutes shareholders, and makes it more difficult for the price to move higher.</p><p>Finally, the biggest risk to Tesla is that unit sales rates fall off of their current trajectory. An automaker with a valuation of 13X forward sales is pricing in a huge amount of future growth. I don’t believe we have any reason to think we won’t see that growth, given Tesla’s history of delivering. However, it is possible the growth trajectory doesn’t meet expectations, and the share price would suffer if this were to occur. In fact, Q1 deliveries were a bit light against expectations, so it’s a real risk.</p><p>Despite all of this, I still think Tesla has ample room to grow in the years to come, and I think the share price will ultimately go much higher. We’ve had a massive move in the past few weeks, and the stock looks fairly valued, so it wouldn’t be unusual to see a consolidation or pullback. However, any such event would be a chance to buy, and I’m quite bullish on Tesla despite its big move.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: After A ~60% Rally, There's More In Store</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: After A ~60% Rally, There's More In Store\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-05 23:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499688-tesla-after-a-60-percent-rally-theres-more-in-store><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499688-tesla-after-a-60-percent-rally-theres-more-in-store\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499688-tesla-after-a-60-percent-rally-theres-more-in-store","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2225304673","content_text":"Growth stocks that were left for dead earlier this year have suddenly roared back to life. Whether that move sticks or not is still up for debate, with rates moving wildly and the prospect of at least a mild recession looming. However, what we have today is very strong up moves in growth leaders, which must be respected regardless of your view on the outlook for the rest of the year.One such growth leader is Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which is up almost 60% since the bottom it made just over a month ago.StockChartsThe daily chart shows a downtrend line from the ATH that was made late last year, and which proved to be resistance in the past few trading days. I don’t believe this will be a persistent issue for Tesla, but is something that could cause a temporary delay in the rally. Once Tesla clears that downtrend line, next resistance is the prior relative high at $1,200, and then finally, the ATH near $1,250. Tesla will crest those, I believe; it is just a matter of when.The accumulation/distribution line remains tremendously strong and is at its own all-time high, indicating this rally is once again the real deal. That’s not surprising given Tesla’s prior leadership, but it’s good to see nonetheless.The PPO made its way well into bullish territory, which is a great sign for the long-term health of this bull run. It’s pulling back slightly now but remember we saw a nearly 60% move in the space of a few weeks, so it needs to come back a bit. Moves like this in the PPO show very strong bullish momentum that portends more strength in the weeks ahead.The same is true of the 14-day RSI, which reached overbought territory. That’s yet another bullish sign that shows buying momentum is strong, and after a consolidation/pullback, I fully expect this move to continue.Let’s now briefly look at the weekly chart, because I think there’s further proof we’re closer to the beginning of this rally than the end.StockChartsThe weekly PPO recently tested the centerline after being overbought for some time, and has turned higher. The last time this happened, the stock ran from just over $500 to its ATH at $1,243. That doesn’t guarantee the same sort of thing this time, but it definitely helps. Big transitions like this in weekly charts often portend bigger, longer-term moves, and that’s what I think we’re seeing in Tesla right now.Now, Tesla is in process of splitting its stock (again), a move that catalyzed the move to the ATH last year. Investors love a stock split and this is either a bullish catalyst, or no catalyst at all. In other words, the split will either produce further rallying from FOMO’ing investors, or it won’t change anything; it's not a negative catalyst. I personally don’t understand the obsession with buying splitting stocks because the actual impact to shareholders is nothing, but as I mentioned, splitting kicked off a massive rally last year, and it could do the same this time around.In addition, Tesla is due to report earnings in about three weeks, and the stock tends to rally into earnings. What happens after the report comes out is another matter, but there is a good chance this buying continues through the end of April, as Tesla is due out with earnings on the 26th.To be clear, the split and the earnings date are not part of the core bullish thesis here, but they are key short-term catalysts that could keep the stock afloat in the weeks ahead.Tesla keeps deliveringThe reason Tesla has delivered world-beating returns over the years is because, well, its business has been unbelievably strong. You don’t reach a trillion dollar valuation through luck, and the fact is that Tesla continues to outpace its competition.Seeking AlphaRevenue revisions have been a bit choppy, but over time, they go higher. Despite the fact that we’ve seen meteoric rises in revenue over the years, trend is still higher. This is what you want/need from growth stocks that you own, because the second revenue estimates begin to roll over, the stock price will follow suit. That’s why Tesla is volatile, and that volatility will remain for the foreseeable future. However, if you can stomach the up and down moves, you stand to do well over time.Tesla’s specific growth catalysts are tied to vehicle production, which it has continued to ramp over time. The company has facilities in Germany, China, and the US pumping out vehicles at ever-increasing rates, and that’s because Tesla continues to ramp production to meet ramping demand. As the company can decrease the cost of production per unit, it can either lower prices, or keep more revenue as operating profit. As we can see below, Tesla’s growth rate continues to blow past the competition globally, and as long as this is the case, Tesla’s share price will almost certainly move higher.Investor presentationIf anyone needs a reason why Tesla is valued so highly against other automakers, I believe this one chart here is all you need to understand. When a company is so dominant, the share price follows, and Tesla isn’t any different.Now, I mentioned operating profits, which Tesla has done an exemplary job of improving in recent quarters after so many years of losses. Below we have trailing-twelve-months, or TTM, operating profits as a percentage of revenue.TIKRWe know Tesla has world-beating gross margins on its cars and services, but up until a couple of years ago, that margin was spent on relatively inefficient production. Production is much more efficient now, thanks to the ramping of new factories built to produce a lot of vehicles at lower costs, and the growth in operating margins has been nothing short of outstanding.These are the kinds of margins the likes of the Big 3 and European automakers would drool over, but Tesla is doing it, with further improvements likely ahead.Operating margin growth is subject to continued growth rates in vehicle production, which lowers per-unit costs, which will be offset somewhat by rising SG&A costs, as well as input cost inflation. Batteries in particular take a lot of expensive raw materials, and with supply chain shortages and geopolitical risk of some of these commodities, Tesla isn’t immune to input cost shocks from time to time. However, on the whole, it’s employing a tried and true strategy of boosting production to lower per-unit costs, and I don’t see input cost inflation as a big derailer at the moment.Let’s now take a look at cash flow, because for many years, Tesla was cash flow negative, which created nearly constant financing issues. However, positive operating profits have fixed that issue, as we’ll see below with TTM operating cash flow and capex, both in millions of dollars.TIKRThe growth here has been exponential, and what’s interesting is that Tesla is not sitting back and collecting this new found cash; it is investing most of it. Capex was $8 billion in the TTM period, against operating cash flow of $11.5 billion, so Tesla is investing heavily in future growth while funding its operations. While that sounds like a given, for many years the company was unable to do this, and issued a huge amount of stock to fund operations. That was a headwind for shareholders, but I do think that headwind has well and truly gone.Below we have the share count and the YoY change for the past several years to see what I’m on about.TIKRYou can see some pretty massive moves in the share count over time, but the past few quarters have seen essentially no movement in the share count. For a company with a history of diluting shareholders, you cannot really say investors are out of the woods entirely. However, because Tesla has ample cash flow to invest in the business and run its operations, you have to say the incentive for Tesla to issue more shares is certainly reduced. This isn’t a tailwind for the stock, but it does effectively remove a headwind, which is sort of the same thing.Indeed, this set of conditions has enormously improved Tesla’s balance sheet, which we can measure via net debt, which is below in millions of dollars.TIKRNet debt is negative, meaning Tesla has more cash than obligations by almost $9 billion. That gives it supreme financial flexibility, which should scare competitors. Tesla was always hindered by its lack of financial flexibility, but that is no longer the case, and it can do essentially whatever it needs to do in order to compete and win.Squint to see the valueOf course, valuing a stock like this takes some faith because you’re buying a stream of future growth that may or may not occur. In Tesla’s case, I believe it is doing everything it needs to do to win in the future, but there are risks that it may not be able to overcome. We’ll get to that in a second, but for now, let’s take a look at earnings and the valuation to see what’s what.Seeking AlphaEPS revisions remain very strong, which you’d expect given the company’s ramping revenue and soaring profit margins. This virtuous cycle is incredibly lucrative for shareholders, and you can see the product of it above. As long as these lines move up and to the right, Tesla shares should do very well. I have zero concerns about this and I believe EPS revisions support an ever-higher share price.Now, let’s take a look at the valuation, which we can use price-to-sales for; it’s plotted below.TIKRThis stock is never going to be “cheap” in the traditional sense; it’s a disruptor in a gargantuan industry with world-beating growth rates. Thus, comparing it to the old-world manufacturers is useless, but we can compare it to its own history. Shares go for 13X forward sales today, which is somewhat elevated against its historical mean. The stock has been 15X forward sales or better a handful of times, but the point here is that Tesla looks pretty fairly valued to me. I don’t think it’s particularly cheap right now, which raises the risk of a consolidation or pullback to help with the valuation.One thing that’s very clear to me is that if Tesla pulls back to 10X or 11X sales, it’s a screaming buy. The times that has happened in the past were outstanding buying chances, with the most recent one being its trip to $700 earlier this year. Something to keep in mind going forward but for now, the stock looks fairly valued to me.Risks and final thoughtsThe valuation is one risk, because Tesla is much closer to the top of its historical valuation range than the bottom. That doesn’t mean it absolutely has to revisit 10X forward sales, but the point is that I think valuation expansion from here is likely limited for the time being. That increases the risk to the bulls.In addition, input cost inflation is a real threat to margins. It shouldn’t impact unit sales – unless raw materials simply become unavailable – but it is already impacting operating margins, and certainly could in the months to come. I believe the company can raise prices and/or offset some of this with manufacturing efficiencies, but input cost inflation is largely out of Tesla’s control, and is a risk to consider if you’re bullish.While I noted share issuances have decreased enormously in the past few quarters, Tesla has proven it is willing to use its stock as an ATM in the past, and that could certainly be the case going forward. Employee compensation and share issuances for corporate purposes could drive the share count ever higher over time, which dilutes shareholders, and makes it more difficult for the price to move higher.Finally, the biggest risk to Tesla is that unit sales rates fall off of their current trajectory. An automaker with a valuation of 13X forward sales is pricing in a huge amount of future growth. I don’t believe we have any reason to think we won’t see that growth, given Tesla’s history of delivering. However, it is possible the growth trajectory doesn’t meet expectations, and the share price would suffer if this were to occur. In fact, Q1 deliveries were a bit light against expectations, so it’s a real risk.Despite all of this, I still think Tesla has ample room to grow in the years to come, and I think the share price will ultimately go much higher. We’ve had a massive move in the past few weeks, and the stock looks fairly valued, so it wouldn’t be unusual to see a consolidation or pullback. However, any such event would be a chance to buy, and I’m quite bullish on Tesla despite its big move.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026958033,"gmtCreate":1653316281022,"gmtModify":1676535259307,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"very true. What else is there to buy? Nothing beats tesla&nbsp;","listText":"very true. What else is there to buy? Nothing beats tesla&nbsp;","text":"very true. What else is there to buy? Nothing beats tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026958033","repostId":"2237385143","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2237385143","pubTimestamp":1653304992,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237385143?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock a Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237385143","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock's valuation is getting closer to reasonable levels, but it may not stay there for long.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Since <b>Tesla</b>&#39;s CEO Elon Musk disclosed his stake in <b>Twitter</b> on April 4, Tesla&#39;s stock has been on a volatile downhill ride, falling 42%. With the saga between Musk and Twitter becoming more complex, some investors may be wondering if Musk has taken his eye off the ball with one of his most successful companies.</p><p>Even with the stock-based distractions, Tesla as a company has become an absolute powerhouse. The company reported a solid first quarter and set ambitious long-term goals, exciting investors. But the question that has dogged Tesla for years is still being asked: Is the valuation for Tesla too expensive for what the company does?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F680534%2F0x0-supercharger_14.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Tesla.</span></p><h2>Strong growth and superior profitability</h2><p>In terms of vehicle production, Tesla has been full of great news in recent reports. Q1 production rose 69% year over year, which drove automotive revenue growth by 87% year over year. Because revenue grew faster than production, Tesla is generating better margins on every vehicle it produces. This margin increase comes, in part, from price hikes instituted throughout 2021 and increases in production efficiency for its Model S and X, which are higher-priced vehicles.</p><p>This revenue growth is definitely trickling down to the bottom line, as quarterly net income rose 658% year over year. Even more impressive was Tesla&#39;s 17.7% net income margin, placing it among the best in the auto industry.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e154310da82718905120e082b34d5b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TSLA Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts</span></p><p>Tesla is nearing luxury vehicle margins. Because of this, it should be valued closer to <b>Ferrari</b> at 35 times earnings rather than <b>General Motors</b> at six or <b>Toyota </b>with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.6. While Tesla is still valued at 90 times earnings, it could reach that threshold if it maintains its growth.</p><p>Management also gave investors a great piece of news: It expects to grow its vehicle deliveries by 50% annually over multiple years. Using this forecast to model revenue growth and keeping Tesla&#39;s 17.7% profit margin, Tesla could have $14.9 billion in earnings at the end of 2022. This means Tesla trades for 49.5 times full-year 2022 earnings, not a bad valuation for a company that expects to grow around 50% annually over the next few years.</p><p>With the recent stock sell-off, I&#39;m not as concerned about Tesla&#39;s valuation as I would have been when the stock was trading above $1,000 per share. Strong growth and a reasonable valuation make Tesla stock an intriguing investment, but the business model also needs to be solid in order to invest.</p><h2>Tesla is not your typical automaker</h2><p>How does Tesla have such a high profit margin compared to legacy automakers? First, it cut out the middleman. Because Tesla sells directly to consumers, it doesn&#39;t need to share profits with dealers. This business model has rubbed many people the wrong way, but it benefits Tesla significantly.</p><p>It also is solely focused on electric vehicles (EVs). Regardless of your feelings toward EVs, it&#39;s clear the auto industry is moving in that direction. While the legacy automakers are still a couple of years out from total EV production, Tesla is full steam ahead. It&#39;s gaining a first-mover advantage and capturing many customers while other manufacturers are still prototyping or only just now ramping up production. Furthermore, Tesla&#39;s four production models (the 3, S, Y, and X) are all in the top 10 of Consumer Reports&#39; most satisfying cars, ranked first, third, fourth, and tenth, respectively.</p><p>EVs also have another tailwind blowing in their favor: rising gas prices.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca81ef932f70a89cb7d89d0ac279c89\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>US Retail Gas Price data by YCharts</span></p><p>With the average price of gasoline in the U.S. hitting record highs, more consumers are seriously considering making the switch to EVs for their next vehicle purchase. If Tesla can keep up with the demand, it should be able to capture customers before the legacy automakers can, giving Tesla a big advantage.</p><p>However, the costs of raw materials like nickel and cobalt used in making batters are hitting record highs, causing the production costs of Tesla&#39;s vehicles to rise. The range is one of the primary concerns many consumers have about making the switch to EVs. Still, if car buyers can settle for standard range models, Tesla&#39;s lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistries can provide excellent performance without the price hike.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F680534%2F0x0-model3_16.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Tesla.</span></p><p>EVs are gaining market share, and Tesla is leading the way. If you&#39;re buying Tesla stock with a long-term mindset (three to five years), then the stock is a great buy today. However, I don&#39;t know when the bear market turnaround will come, and the stock may drop further in the short term. Investors can mitigate this by slowly easing into the stock over set time periods, potentially buying the stock for a lower price.</p><p>Today could be one of the best opportunities to buy Tesla stock in a long time. Don&#39;t worry about getting the absolute lowest price; a sentiment turnaround could come at any time and cause a rapid stock rise.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock a Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock a Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/23/is-tesla-stock-a-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since Tesla's CEO Elon Musk disclosed his stake in Twitter on April 4, Tesla's stock has been on a volatile downhill ride, falling 42%. With the saga between Musk and Twitter becoming more complex, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/23/is-tesla-stock-a-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/23/is-tesla-stock-a-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2237385143","content_text":"Since Tesla's CEO Elon Musk disclosed his stake in Twitter on April 4, Tesla's stock has been on a volatile downhill ride, falling 42%. With the saga between Musk and Twitter becoming more complex, some investors may be wondering if Musk has taken his eye off the ball with one of his most successful companies.Even with the stock-based distractions, Tesla as a company has become an absolute powerhouse. The company reported a solid first quarter and set ambitious long-term goals, exciting investors. But the question that has dogged Tesla for years is still being asked: Is the valuation for Tesla too expensive for what the company does?Image source: Tesla.Strong growth and superior profitabilityIn terms of vehicle production, Tesla has been full of great news in recent reports. Q1 production rose 69% year over year, which drove automotive revenue growth by 87% year over year. Because revenue grew faster than production, Tesla is generating better margins on every vehicle it produces. This margin increase comes, in part, from price hikes instituted throughout 2021 and increases in production efficiency for its Model S and X, which are higher-priced vehicles.This revenue growth is definitely trickling down to the bottom line, as quarterly net income rose 658% year over year. Even more impressive was Tesla's 17.7% net income margin, placing it among the best in the auto industry.TSLA Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YChartsTesla is nearing luxury vehicle margins. Because of this, it should be valued closer to Ferrari at 35 times earnings rather than General Motors at six or Toyota with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.6. While Tesla is still valued at 90 times earnings, it could reach that threshold if it maintains its growth.Management also gave investors a great piece of news: It expects to grow its vehicle deliveries by 50% annually over multiple years. Using this forecast to model revenue growth and keeping Tesla's 17.7% profit margin, Tesla could have $14.9 billion in earnings at the end of 2022. This means Tesla trades for 49.5 times full-year 2022 earnings, not a bad valuation for a company that expects to grow around 50% annually over the next few years.With the recent stock sell-off, I'm not as concerned about Tesla's valuation as I would have been when the stock was trading above $1,000 per share. Strong growth and a reasonable valuation make Tesla stock an intriguing investment, but the business model also needs to be solid in order to invest.Tesla is not your typical automakerHow does Tesla have such a high profit margin compared to legacy automakers? First, it cut out the middleman. Because Tesla sells directly to consumers, it doesn't need to share profits with dealers. This business model has rubbed many people the wrong way, but it benefits Tesla significantly.It also is solely focused on electric vehicles (EVs). Regardless of your feelings toward EVs, it's clear the auto industry is moving in that direction. While the legacy automakers are still a couple of years out from total EV production, Tesla is full steam ahead. It's gaining a first-mover advantage and capturing many customers while other manufacturers are still prototyping or only just now ramping up production. Furthermore, Tesla's four production models (the 3, S, Y, and X) are all in the top 10 of Consumer Reports' most satisfying cars, ranked first, third, fourth, and tenth, respectively.EVs also have another tailwind blowing in their favor: rising gas prices.US Retail Gas Price data by YChartsWith the average price of gasoline in the U.S. hitting record highs, more consumers are seriously considering making the switch to EVs for their next vehicle purchase. If Tesla can keep up with the demand, it should be able to capture customers before the legacy automakers can, giving Tesla a big advantage.However, the costs of raw materials like nickel and cobalt used in making batters are hitting record highs, causing the production costs of Tesla's vehicles to rise. The range is one of the primary concerns many consumers have about making the switch to EVs. Still, if car buyers can settle for standard range models, Tesla's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistries can provide excellent performance without the price hike.Image source: Tesla.EVs are gaining market share, and Tesla is leading the way. If you're buying Tesla stock with a long-term mindset (three to five years), then the stock is a great buy today. However, I don't know when the bear market turnaround will come, and the stock may drop further in the short term. Investors can mitigate this by slowly easing into the stock over set time periods, potentially buying the stock for a lower price.Today could be one of the best opportunities to buy Tesla stock in a long time. Don't worry about getting the absolute lowest price; a sentiment turnaround could come at any time and cause a rapid stock rise.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035168151,"gmtCreate":1647551553904,"gmtModify":1676534242200,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No bond deal, no big deal.&nbsp;","listText":"No bond deal, no big deal.&nbsp;","text":"No bond deal, no big deal.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035168151","repostId":"1160440619","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160440619","pubTimestamp":1647529518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160440619?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Does Tesla's Delay of Bond Issue Mean for its Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160440619","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Tesla has delayed issuance of $1 billion of bonds backed by its vehicle leases amid market volatility.When you think about the impact of raging inflation on electric-vehicle maker Tesla(TSLA), it’s na","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla has delayed issuance of $1 billion of bonds backed by its vehicle leases amid market volatility.</p><p>When you think about the impact of raging inflation on electric-vehicle maker Tesla (<b>TSLA</b>), it’s natural to think about the prices of its autos. The 7.9% surge in consumer inflation for the 12 months ended in February pushed Tesla to raise its car prices recently.</p><p>But another effect of rising inflation -- and the turmoil created by the Russia-Ukraine war -- has emerged tor Tesla. It has delayed a $1 billion-plus sale of bonds backed by  its vehicle leases, thanks to volatility in the bond market, knowledgeable sources told Bloomberg.</p><p>Bond yields have surged recently, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 35 basis points in the last 10 days, to 2.16%.</p><p>While $1 billion of bonds sounds like a lot, it’s really not that big a deal for Tesla,Barron’s notes. As of Dec. 31, Tesla had $18 billion of cash. And it’s seen producing more than $15 billion of cash flow this year, excluding capital spending. That would top last year’s total of $12 billion.</p><p>This may explain why the bond news seems to be having little impact on Tesla’s stock, perhaps your biggest concern. The company’s shares dipped 0.63% in recent trading, not far from the 0.60% decline for the Nasdaq Composite index.</p><p>Tesla has executed seven asset-backed bond packages in the last four years, Bloomberg reports. Despite the company’s “limited experience” in this area, the bonds have done well, according to Fitch Ratings analysts.</p><p>In other Tesla news,a recent lawsuit claims that the company’s driver assist system, Autopilot, constantly monitors drivers, violating their privacy rights.</p><p>Autopilot uses eight cameras around the vehicle to gather a full 360-degree view, facilitating the technology that allows the car to navigate through traffic hands-free.</p><p>However, in May 2021 Tesla released a driver monitoring system software update that turned on a cabin-facing camera already built into its vehicles that would detect the attention of a driver while autopilot was in use.</p><p>This monitoring is a violation of the Illinois Biometric Privacy Act, according to a class action lawsuit filed March 10.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Does Tesla's Delay of Bond Issue Mean for its Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Does Tesla's Delay of Bond Issue Mean for its Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-17 23:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/lifestyle/cars/teslay-delay-bond-issue-stock><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla has delayed issuance of $1 billion of bonds backed by its vehicle leases amid market volatility.When you think about the impact of raging inflation on electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), it’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/lifestyle/cars/teslay-delay-bond-issue-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/lifestyle/cars/teslay-delay-bond-issue-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160440619","content_text":"Tesla has delayed issuance of $1 billion of bonds backed by its vehicle leases amid market volatility.When you think about the impact of raging inflation on electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), it’s natural to think about the prices of its autos. The 7.9% surge in consumer inflation for the 12 months ended in February pushed Tesla to raise its car prices recently.But another effect of rising inflation -- and the turmoil created by the Russia-Ukraine war -- has emerged tor Tesla. It has delayed a $1 billion-plus sale of bonds backed by  its vehicle leases, thanks to volatility in the bond market, knowledgeable sources told Bloomberg.Bond yields have surged recently, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 35 basis points in the last 10 days, to 2.16%.While $1 billion of bonds sounds like a lot, it’s really not that big a deal for Tesla,Barron’s notes. As of Dec. 31, Tesla had $18 billion of cash. And it’s seen producing more than $15 billion of cash flow this year, excluding capital spending. That would top last year’s total of $12 billion.This may explain why the bond news seems to be having little impact on Tesla’s stock, perhaps your biggest concern. The company’s shares dipped 0.63% in recent trading, not far from the 0.60% decline for the Nasdaq Composite index.Tesla has executed seven asset-backed bond packages in the last four years, Bloomberg reports. Despite the company’s “limited experience” in this area, the bonds have done well, according to Fitch Ratings analysts.In other Tesla news,a recent lawsuit claims that the company’s driver assist system, Autopilot, constantly monitors drivers, violating their privacy rights.Autopilot uses eight cameras around the vehicle to gather a full 360-degree view, facilitating the technology that allows the car to navigate through traffic hands-free.However, in May 2021 Tesla released a driver monitoring system software update that turned on a cabin-facing camera already built into its vehicles that would detect the attention of a driver while autopilot was in use.This monitoring is a violation of the Illinois Biometric Privacy Act, according to a class action lawsuit filed March 10.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038256520,"gmtCreate":1646850879621,"gmtModify":1676534169349,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May be? Yes, maybe","listText":"May be? Yes, maybe","text":"May be? Yes, maybe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038256520","repostId":"1157057946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157057946","pubTimestamp":1646837534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157057946?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-09 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157057946","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade U","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Berlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.</li><li>Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.</li><li>Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.</li></ul><p>With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.</p><p>Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company&#39;s next leg of growth. As we&#39;ve seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren&#39;t likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year&#39;s delivery surge.</p><p>Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I&#39;m curious to see how street analysts react. As I&#39;ve detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year&#39;s Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year&#39;s Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don&#39;t truly reflect the reality here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3c38eb92e463dd471485692153ab34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)</p><p>As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we&#39;re expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.</p><p>With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla&#39;s margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can&#39;t just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.</p><p>Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That&#39;s going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that&#39;s a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.</p><p>Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn&#39;t actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company&#39;s10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.</p><p>As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday&#39;s close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83ea0334f84eaaad7b891873d79b292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)</p><p>In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla May Be Reaching Critical Point\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-09 22:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157057946","content_text":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company's next leg of growth. As we've seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren't likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year's delivery surge.Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I'm curious to see how street analysts react. As I've detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year's Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year's Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don't truly reflect the reality here.Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we're expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla's margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can't just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That's going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that's a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn't actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company's10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday's close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993603149,"gmtCreate":1660684832683,"gmtModify":1676536375842,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Speaking the obvious. Still buy cautiously and within means, long term Tslawill appreciate but short term, peoplemight take advantage of what is said here and make money by pushing theprice either way and cause upset","listText":"Speaking the obvious. Still buy cautiously and within means, long term Tslawill appreciate but short term, peoplemight take advantage of what is said here and make money by pushing theprice either way and cause upset","text":"Speaking the obvious. Still buy cautiously and within means, long term Tslawill appreciate but short term, peoplemight take advantage of what is said here and make money by pushing theprice either way and cause upset","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993603149","repostId":"2259839211","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2259839211","pubTimestamp":1660659198,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259839211?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-16 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSLA Is a Must-Buy Ahead of the Aug. 17 Tesla Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259839211","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla(TSLA) will enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17.Also, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased the upcoming release of two new vehicle models.Investors should hold at least a few TSLA stock shares pri","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b> (<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) will enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17.</li><li>Also, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased the upcoming release of two new vehicle models.</li><li>Investors should hold at least a few TSLA stock shares prior to the split.</li></ul><p><b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock hasn’t looked this good in a while.</p><p>Not long ago, the company revealed that the electric vehicle (or EV) manufacturer plans to enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17. Furthermore, CEO Elon Musk tweeted a hint that two new EV models will be shipped out.</p><p>For these reasons, or just because Tesla is a premier business and a pioneer in vehicle electrification, you should consider owning TSLA stock now.</p><p>Make no mistake about it: Musk is a controversial figure. Everybody and his uncle has been talking about how Musk sold nearly $7 billion worth of Tesla shares recently. Yet, you don’t have to let this distract you from the more important developments surrounding Tesla.</p><p>Musk is, among other things, a master of using the media to generate attention for Tesla. He teased a couple of new vehicle models recently, and this could generate investor interest in Tesla. Besides, the upcoming share split will likely entice more people into the trade.</p><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><td><b><u>TSLA</u></b></td><td><b>Tesla</b></td><td>$927.96</td></tr></tbody></table><h2>What’s Happening with TSLA Stock?</h2><p>Throughout 2022 so far, TSLA stock has achieved $1,000 on more than one occasion but couldn’t hold that level. The buyers will have to put in some work to reclaim $1,000 and keep the Tesla share price there.</p><p>However, soon $1,000 won’t be the near-term objective anymore. That’s because Tesla’s board of directors approved a three-for-one share split, which will apply to shareholders of record on Aug. 17.</p><p>So, if you’re serious about investing in Tesla and making the most of this situation, you can buy some TSLA stock shares prior to Aug. 17. Also, mark Aug. 25 on your calendar, as that’s when the stock will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis.</p><p>As the shares become more affordable, traders will smaller account sizes will probably be enticed to invest in Tesla. And of course, when there are more buyers involved, this should put upward price pressure on the stock.</p><h2>Musk Teases <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> New Tesla Vehicle Models</h2><p>As I mentioned before, Musk is masterful when it comes to using the media to generate buzz for Tesla. That’s exactly what he did when he recently tweeted, “Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year, Cybertruck next year.”</p><p>This tweet immediately made the financial headlines, so Musk can say, “Mission accomplished.” The Cybertruck is Tesla’s version of a pickup truck, so truckers who’ve hesitated to join the vehicle electrification movement might now be persuaded to give Tesla’s electric truck a try.</p><p>Along with all of this, you can simply hold TSLA stock because the company is an EV-market powerhouse. As you may recall, Tesla’s revenue jumped 42% year over year in 2022’s second quarter. Figures like this should remind us all that Musk’s company was, and still remains, an EV pioneer.</p><h2>What You Can Do Now</h2><p>For all of the reasons discussed here, feel free to add to your share position in Tesla prior to Aug. 17. And if you don’t have a position already, now’s a great time to start one.</p><p>Otherwise, you may regret it as stock-split mania could push TSLA stock much higher. Eventually, even after the split, the stock might reach $1,000 and then some.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSLA Is a Must-Buy Ahead of the Aug. 17 Tesla Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSLA Is a Must-Buy Ahead of the Aug. 17 Tesla Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-16 22:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-is-a-must-buy-ahead-of-the-aug-17-tesla-stock-split/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) will enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17.Also, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased the upcoming release of two new vehicle models.Investors should hold at least a few TSLA stock shares ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-is-a-must-buy-ahead-of-the-aug-17-tesla-stock-split/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/tsla-is-a-must-buy-ahead-of-the-aug-17-tesla-stock-split/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2259839211","content_text":"Tesla (TSLA) will enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17.Also, Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased the upcoming release of two new vehicle models.Investors should hold at least a few TSLA stock shares prior to the split.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock hasn’t looked this good in a while.Not long ago, the company revealed that the electric vehicle (or EV) manufacturer plans to enact a three-for-one share split on Aug. 17. Furthermore, CEO Elon Musk tweeted a hint that two new EV models will be shipped out.For these reasons, or just because Tesla is a premier business and a pioneer in vehicle electrification, you should consider owning TSLA stock now.Make no mistake about it: Musk is a controversial figure. Everybody and his uncle has been talking about how Musk sold nearly $7 billion worth of Tesla shares recently. Yet, you don’t have to let this distract you from the more important developments surrounding Tesla.Musk is, among other things, a master of using the media to generate attention for Tesla. He teased a couple of new vehicle models recently, and this could generate investor interest in Tesla. Besides, the upcoming share split will likely entice more people into the trade.TSLATesla$927.96What’s Happening with TSLA Stock?Throughout 2022 so far, TSLA stock has achieved $1,000 on more than one occasion but couldn’t hold that level. The buyers will have to put in some work to reclaim $1,000 and keep the Tesla share price there.However, soon $1,000 won’t be the near-term objective anymore. That’s because Tesla’s board of directors approved a three-for-one share split, which will apply to shareholders of record on Aug. 17.So, if you’re serious about investing in Tesla and making the most of this situation, you can buy some TSLA stock shares prior to Aug. 17. Also, mark Aug. 25 on your calendar, as that’s when the stock will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis.As the shares become more affordable, traders will smaller account sizes will probably be enticed to invest in Tesla. And of course, when there are more buyers involved, this should put upward price pressure on the stock.Musk Teases Two New Tesla Vehicle ModelsAs I mentioned before, Musk is masterful when it comes to using the media to generate buzz for Tesla. That’s exactly what he did when he recently tweeted, “Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year, Cybertruck next year.”This tweet immediately made the financial headlines, so Musk can say, “Mission accomplished.” The Cybertruck is Tesla’s version of a pickup truck, so truckers who’ve hesitated to join the vehicle electrification movement might now be persuaded to give Tesla’s electric truck a try.Along with all of this, you can simply hold TSLA stock because the company is an EV-market powerhouse. As you may recall, Tesla’s revenue jumped 42% year over year in 2022’s second quarter. Figures like this should remind us all that Musk’s company was, and still remains, an EV pioneer.What You Can Do NowFor all of the reasons discussed here, feel free to add to your share position in Tesla prior to Aug. 17. And if you don’t have a position already, now’s a great time to start one.Otherwise, you may regret it as stock-split mania could push TSLA stock much higher. Eventually, even after the split, the stock might reach $1,000 and then some.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023764493,"gmtCreate":1652966006013,"gmtModify":1676535197651,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"U must be kidding","listText":"U must be kidding","text":"U must be kidding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023764493","repostId":"1152395035","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036905780,"gmtCreate":1646958282524,"gmtModify":1676534181269,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don't state the obvious.&nbsp;","listText":"Don't state the obvious.&nbsp;","text":"Don't state the obvious.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036905780","repostId":"1154245171","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154245171","pubTimestamp":1646957336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154245171?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-11 08:08","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Shares May Head South On Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154245171","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two straight sessions, advancing more than 90 points ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two straight sessions, advancing more than 90 points or 3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,240-point plateau although it&#39;s expected to open under pressure on Friday.</p><p>The global forecast for the Asian markets suggests mild consolidation on geopolitical concerns and inflation worries. The European and U.S. markets were down and the Asan bourses are expected to open in a similar fashion.</p><p>The STI finished sharply higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares, property stocks and technology companies.</p><p>For the day, the index climbed 45.35 points or 1.42 percent to finish at 3,240.73 after trading between 3,227.61 and 3,258.94. Volume was 1.43 billion shares worth 1.61 billion Singapore dollars. There were 286 gainers and 198 decliners.</p><p>Among the actives, Ascendas REIT advanced 1.79 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust strengthened 1.42 percent, City Developments soared 2.43 percent, Comfort DelGro accelerated 2.21 percent, Dairy Farm International surged 4.15 percent, DBS Group climbed 1.95 percent, Genting Singapore jumped 2.00 percent, Hongkong Land added 1.76 percent, Keppel Corp rose 1.16 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust and United Overseas Bank both spiked 2.22 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust and Venture Corporation both improved 1.69 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation rallied 2.09 percent, SATS collected 0.26 percent, SembCorp Industries plummeted 2.56 percent, Singapore Airlines gained 1.21 percent, Singapore Exchange gathered 1.07 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering was up 0.50 percent, SingTel increased 1.59 percent, Thai Beverage perked 0.75 percent, Wilmar International tumbled 1.91 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding retreated 1.41 percent and Singapore Press Holdings was unchanged.</p><p>The lead from Wall Street is soft as the major averages opened lower on Thursday and remained in the red throughout the session.</p><p>The Dow dropped 112.18 points or 0.34 percent to finish at 33,174.07, while the NASDAQ tumbled 125.58 points or 0.95 percent to close at 13,129.96 and the S&amp;P 500 lost 18.36 points or 0.43 percent to end at 4,259.52.</p><p>The early weakness on Wall Street reflected ongoing concerns about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as peace talks between the countries resulted in little progress on key issues.</p><p>In economic news, the Labor Department noted a continued acceleration in the annual rate of U.S. consumer price growth in February, reaching its highest rate since January 1982. A separate report from the Labor Department showed a modest increase in initial jobless claims last week.</p><p>Crude oil prices retreated on Thursday following reports that Russia will fulfill its contractual obligations, helping to ease concerns about supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April settled at $106.02 a barrel, down $2.68 or 2.5 percent from the previous close.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Shares May Head South On Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Shares May Head South On Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-11 08:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.rttnews.com/3268991/singapore-shares-may-head-south-on-friday.aspx?type=acom><strong>RTTNews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two straight sessions, advancing more than 90 points or 3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,240-point plateau ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3268991/singapore-shares-may-head-south-on-friday.aspx?type=acom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3268991/singapore-shares-may-head-south-on-friday.aspx?type=acom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154245171","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two straight sessions, advancing more than 90 points or 3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,240-point plateau although it's expected to open under pressure on Friday.The global forecast for the Asian markets suggests mild consolidation on geopolitical concerns and inflation worries. The European and U.S. markets were down and the Asan bourses are expected to open in a similar fashion.The STI finished sharply higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares, property stocks and technology companies.For the day, the index climbed 45.35 points or 1.42 percent to finish at 3,240.73 after trading between 3,227.61 and 3,258.94. Volume was 1.43 billion shares worth 1.61 billion Singapore dollars. There were 286 gainers and 198 decliners.Among the actives, Ascendas REIT advanced 1.79 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust strengthened 1.42 percent, City Developments soared 2.43 percent, Comfort DelGro accelerated 2.21 percent, Dairy Farm International surged 4.15 percent, DBS Group climbed 1.95 percent, Genting Singapore jumped 2.00 percent, Hongkong Land added 1.76 percent, Keppel Corp rose 1.16 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust and United Overseas Bank both spiked 2.22 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust and Venture Corporation both improved 1.69 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation rallied 2.09 percent, SATS collected 0.26 percent, SembCorp Industries plummeted 2.56 percent, Singapore Airlines gained 1.21 percent, Singapore Exchange gathered 1.07 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering was up 0.50 percent, SingTel increased 1.59 percent, Thai Beverage perked 0.75 percent, Wilmar International tumbled 1.91 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding retreated 1.41 percent and Singapore Press Holdings was unchanged.The lead from Wall Street is soft as the major averages opened lower on Thursday and remained in the red throughout the session.The Dow dropped 112.18 points or 0.34 percent to finish at 33,174.07, while the NASDAQ tumbled 125.58 points or 0.95 percent to close at 13,129.96 and the S&P 500 lost 18.36 points or 0.43 percent to end at 4,259.52.The early weakness on Wall Street reflected ongoing concerns about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as peace talks between the countries resulted in little progress on key issues.In economic news, the Labor Department noted a continued acceleration in the annual rate of U.S. consumer price growth in February, reaching its highest rate since January 1982. A separate report from the Labor Department showed a modest increase in initial jobless claims last week.Crude oil prices retreated on Thursday following reports that Russia will fulfill its contractual obligations, helping to ease concerns about supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April settled at $106.02 a barrel, down $2.68 or 2.5 percent from the previous close.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044099361,"gmtCreate":1656668918853,"gmtModify":1676535874381,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A collection of the recent bad news on Tesla. Tesla will come back stronger&nbsp;","listText":"A collection of the recent bad news on Tesla. Tesla will come back stronger&nbsp;","text":"A collection of the recent bad news on Tesla. Tesla will come back stronger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044099361","repostId":"2248349068","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050801657,"gmtCreate":1654159275079,"gmtModify":1676535404722,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Same old trash Tsla story.. can u think of something better to write??","listText":"Same old trash Tsla story.. can u think of something better to write??","text":"Same old trash Tsla story.. can u think of something better to write??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050801657","repostId":"2240660477","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026514616,"gmtCreate":1653400764135,"gmtModify":1676535274758,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tsla is down again today. Are u seeing things?","listText":"Tsla is down again today. Are u seeing things?","text":"Tsla is down again today. Are u seeing things?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026514616","repostId":"1112682761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1112682761","pubTimestamp":1653362330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112682761?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 11:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSLA Stock Fans Should (Maybe) Watch for This Huge FSD Catalyst Next Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112682761","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Elon Musk has made another lofty production promiseThe Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO says the company’s veh","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Elon Musk has made another lofty production promise</li><li>The <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) CEO says the company’s vehicles will be fully autonomous by 2023</li><li>TSLA stock is rising today, but some are skeptical that Tesla can deliver</li></ul><p>Tesla is back in the green today after a new announcement; CEO Elon Musk has said that, by this time next year, Tesla vehicles will be completely autonomous. This sudden prediction comes just a week after the launch of an investigation into Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) technology. Now, TSLA stock is moving upward again.</p><p>Last week, Tesla shares slipped below $700, the stock’s lowest point since the summer of 2021. Here’s what investors should know about the new update from Elon Musk.</p><h2>The Latest (Self) Driver for TSLA Stock</h2><p>Elon Musk’s new announcement has given TSLA stock a much needed jolt. As of this writing, shares are up just under a percent for the day, staying slightly elevated.</p><p>Of course, it hasn’t been a good month for the electric vehicle(EV) sector so far. Industry leader Tesla is struggling. Meanwhile, <b>Xpeng</b>(NYSE:<b><u>XPEV</u></b>) posted a poor second-quarter outlook, also causing fellow Chinese EV producer<b>Nio</b>(NYSE:<b><u>NIO</u></b>) to take a dive.</p><p>While this latest prediction for Tesla is exciting, it has already garnered some warranted skepticism. Tesla doesn’t have a history of meeting its ambitious deadlines. What’s more, they have often centered around FSD tech, which Musk admitted last year is harder to produce than he had expected. Last July, Musk tweeted as much when a Tesla EV owner trolled him about a delayed rollout.</p><blockquote>Haha, FSD 9 beta is shipping soon, I swear!</blockquote><blockquote>Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of real-world AI. Didn’t expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect.</blockquote><blockquote>Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality.</blockquote><blockquote>— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)July 3, 2021</blockquote><p>Despite all of the hard work on Tesla’s FSD promises, investors also have plenty of reason to be cautious. Last week, a Tesla crash in Newport Beach, California killed three people. Authorities are currently investigating if the driver had engaged the car’s autopilot feature.</p><p>This isn’t the first time that Tesla’s autonomous tech has caused problems, either. In February, the company issued a recall due to problems with its rolling stop feature.</p><p>Now, Musk is doubling down on promises of autonomous driving. While that is exciting to think about, it’s understandable why both consumers and experts are skeptical about it becoming a reality.</p><h2>The Road Ahead</h2><p>FSD skepticism aside, there is something important to note when it comes to TSLA stock. Sure, the company has missed deadlines and experienced setbacks before, but that has never kept shares down for long. TSLA stock has an ability to overcome.</p><p>Still, when an announcement this important comes at a ten-month low for shares, it’s hard not to wonder whether Musk is trying to generate excitement short-term. All told, this latest FSD announcement is absolutely worth the watch.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSLA Stock Fans Should (Maybe) Watch for This Huge FSD Catalyst Next Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSLA Stock Fans Should (Maybe) Watch for This Huge FSD Catalyst Next Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 11:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-fans-should-maybe-watch-for-this-huge-fsd-catalyst-next-year/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk has made another lofty production promiseThe Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO says the company’s vehicles will be fully autonomous by 2023TSLA stock is rising today, but some are skeptical that Tesla ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-fans-should-maybe-watch-for-this-huge-fsd-catalyst-next-year/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-fans-should-maybe-watch-for-this-huge-fsd-catalyst-next-year/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112682761","content_text":"Elon Musk has made another lofty production promiseThe Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO says the company’s vehicles will be fully autonomous by 2023TSLA stock is rising today, but some are skeptical that Tesla can deliverTesla is back in the green today after a new announcement; CEO Elon Musk has said that, by this time next year, Tesla vehicles will be completely autonomous. This sudden prediction comes just a week after the launch of an investigation into Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) technology. Now, TSLA stock is moving upward again.Last week, Tesla shares slipped below $700, the stock’s lowest point since the summer of 2021. Here’s what investors should know about the new update from Elon Musk.The Latest (Self) Driver for TSLA StockElon Musk’s new announcement has given TSLA stock a much needed jolt. As of this writing, shares are up just under a percent for the day, staying slightly elevated.Of course, it hasn’t been a good month for the electric vehicle(EV) sector so far. Industry leader Tesla is struggling. Meanwhile, Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV) posted a poor second-quarter outlook, also causing fellow Chinese EV producerNio(NYSE:NIO) to take a dive.While this latest prediction for Tesla is exciting, it has already garnered some warranted skepticism. Tesla doesn’t have a history of meeting its ambitious deadlines. What’s more, they have often centered around FSD tech, which Musk admitted last year is harder to produce than he had expected. Last July, Musk tweeted as much when a Tesla EV owner trolled him about a delayed rollout.Haha, FSD 9 beta is shipping soon, I swear!Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of real-world AI. Didn’t expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect.Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)July 3, 2021Despite all of the hard work on Tesla’s FSD promises, investors also have plenty of reason to be cautious. Last week, a Tesla crash in Newport Beach, California killed three people. Authorities are currently investigating if the driver had engaged the car’s autopilot feature.This isn’t the first time that Tesla’s autonomous tech has caused problems, either. In February, the company issued a recall due to problems with its rolling stop feature.Now, Musk is doubling down on promises of autonomous driving. While that is exciting to think about, it’s understandable why both consumers and experts are skeptical about it becoming a reality.The Road AheadFSD skepticism aside, there is something important to note when it comes to TSLA stock. Sure, the company has missed deadlines and experienced setbacks before, but that has never kept shares down for long. TSLA stock has an ability to overcome.Still, when an announcement this important comes at a ten-month low for shares, it’s hard not to wonder whether Musk is trying to generate excitement short-term. All told, this latest FSD announcement is absolutely worth the watch.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086662812,"gmtCreate":1650450709948,"gmtModify":1676534726564,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What a load of rubblsh!&nbsp;","listText":"What a load of rubblsh!&nbsp;","text":"What a load of rubblsh!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086662812","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value &amp; FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039752607,"gmtCreate":1646136520814,"gmtModify":1676534094681,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think u should read more&nbsp;","listText":"I think u should read more&nbsp;","text":"I think u should read more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039752607","repostId":"1106936697","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106936697","pubTimestamp":1646104713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106936697?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 11:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106936697","media":"investorplace","summary":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market cap","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.</p><p>Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.</p><p>Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.</p><p>That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.</p><h2>Tesla Still Just Makes Cars</h2><p>CEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.</p><p>Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.</p><p>It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.</p><p>The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.</p><p>To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).</p><h2>Stock Market Exuberance</h2><p>Tesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.</p><p>That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.</p><p>But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.</p><p>We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.</p><p>Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.</p><h2>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</h2><p>There are limits to what investors should pay for growth.</p><p>I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.</p><p>This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.</p><p>If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Still Fundamentally Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-01 11:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/tsla-stock-still-fundamentally-overvalued/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106936697","content_text":"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has lost about one-third of its value since hitting an all-time high of $1,222/share at the start of November.Tesla stock opened on Feb. 28 at $815. That’s still a market capitalization of over $890 billion on 2021 revenues of $53.8 billion. Tesla brought 10% of that revenue to the net income line, but the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is still 177, and the price to sales (P/S) ratio 17.Tesla stock has always risen against a tide of bearishness, an assumption that CEO Elon Musk could not do what he was in fact doing. But fewer than 3% of shares are now being held short. Analysts are bullish, with 16 of 29 at Tipranks saying buy it.That’s probably why I wouldn’t touch it right now.Tesla Still Just Makes CarsCEO Elon Musk has always called Tesla a technology company, but it is still a manufacturer. Manufacturers need supply chains. Supply chains around the world are being disrupted. War and pandemics are inherently disruptive things. Both are generally unhealthy for economies and other living things.Ultimately, Tesla isn’t falling because of Musk’s Twitter, a Justice Department probe of shorts or relations with the Biden administration.It’s falling on fundamentals. Scaling is difficult. It doesn’t get easier, for cars anyway, after the initial scaling.The electric vehicle posse has been after Tesla for years, and they’re closing in. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) are delivering electric cars that look very Tesla-like. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) has begun doing the same. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) is ramping up production. Chinese companies are now strong enough to get by on reduced government help.To justify its current price, Tesla needs to become bigger than General Motors (NYSE:GM) or Ford within just a few years. Opening its German plant will help. But you’re still assuming last year’s growth of 83% in car deliveries can be replicated. You’re still assuming Tesla can produce, and sell, hundreds of thousands of its butt-ugly Cybertrucks in Texas against Ford, GM, and Toyota (NYSE:TM).Stock Market ExuberanceTesla stock has been falling even while pension funds like Canada’s have been piling in. The assumption is that Tesla is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), that its software, electricity, insurance and services will multiply the value of each Tesla sale. But almost 90% of Tesla revenue still comes from cars. Tesla is not a solar panel company either. Battery storage revenues fell 38% in 2021.That’s not to say Tesla hasn’t performed well. It has.But its stock price assumes it can keep growing near its present rate, even as electric car production elsewhere ramps up.We saw this last year with cloud stocks. There’s a limit to what people will pay for growth. Tesla seems to have gone through that limit, at ludicrous speed.Meanwhile the Musks have taken their eyes off the ball. Buying Bitcoin while pretending to be unaware of its environmental damage is just stupid. Going into the video game industry is also stupid.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockThere are limits to what investors should pay for growth.I think Tesla has exceeded those limits.This doesn’t mean Tesla is a bad company. I think it can easily grow its top line by 50% this year, profitably. But then that growth is going to slow. Big numbers are harder to shift. The diversity of income Tesla once promised isn’t happening. It’s still a car company, and Elon Musk is growing bored with it.If you assume TSLA stock is worth 10 times current revenue, or that its profit can double and it’s worth 30 times that, you’re still looking at a big drop in its stock price. I think there are better growth opportunities out there, in clouds, in software, in things that scale more easily than cars.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981476579,"gmtCreate":1666588748791,"gmtModify":1676537773221,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"including GLJ inputs into your analysis swings u away from reality and affects the balance of your presentation...&nbsp;","listText":"including GLJ inputs into your analysis swings u away from reality and affects the balance of your presentation...&nbsp;","text":"including GLJ inputs into your analysis swings u away from reality and affects the balance of your presentation...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981476579","repostId":"1133583383","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9991687675,"gmtCreate":1660828325899,"gmtModify":1676536406296,"author":{"id":"3575460678718088","authorId":"3575460678718088","name":"Hairyharrier","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575460678718088","authorIdStr":"3575460678718088"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wet blanket&nbsp;","listText":"Wet blanket&nbsp;","text":"Wet blanket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9991687675","repostId":"2260389489","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2260389489","pubTimestamp":1660822415,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260389489?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-18 19:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Split: 5 Things to Know About the Upcoming Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260389489","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The largest automaker in the world by market cap is imminently conducting a stock split. Here's the 411 on what you need to know.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street and the investing community have been dealt a difficult hand in 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> and tech-centric <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> both entered bear market territory, the U.S. inflation rate skyrocketed to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, and the U.S. economy delivered back-to-back quarters of gross domestic product declines, signaling a &#34;technical recession.&#34;</p><p>Yet amid this chaos, investors have gravitated to what&#39;s arguably the one silver lining this year: stock splits. A stock split allows a publicly traded company the ability to alter its share price and outstanding share count without impacting its market cap or operations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93398133c5685f08211f1bc0c4840f9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><p>According to data from Fidelity, 212 public companies have announced and/or enacted stock splits since the beginning of the year. This includes one of the largest and most-popular stocks on the entire planet, electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>Tesla</b> (TSLA -0.84%). With Tesla&#39;s stock split rapidly approaching, here are five things investors should know.</p><h2>1. When the Tesla stock split will take place</h2><p>Perhaps the most pertinent piece of data for investors to know is when, exactly, Tesla&#39;s stock split will take place. The answer is exactly one week from today, on August 25, 2022 prior to the market open.</p><p>Keep in mind that it can sometimes take stock quote providers and online brokerages a few hours to a full day to recognize that a stock split has taken place. If you wake up and suddenly find that your investment portfolio has lost significant value overnight, or that Tesla&#39;s shares are being quoted down 60% or more on Aug. 25, there&#39;s a <i>very</i> good chance you can overlook this as a reporting error that&#39;ll quickly be remedied by the provider.</p><h2>2. The magnitude of the Tesla stock split</h2><p>The second important tidbit of information Tesla&#39;s current and prospective investors should know is the magnitude of the forward stock split.</p><p>In June, Tesla proposed enacting a 3-for-1 forward split. Effectively, this would reduce the company&#39;s share price to a third of its current value while increasing the company&#39;s outstanding share count by a factor of three. At the August 4 shareholder meeting, Tesla&#39;s shareholders voted to approve the company&#39;s proposed split.</p><p>Based on Tesla&#39;s closing price of $919.69 on August 16, a 3-for-1 stock split would reduce its share price to around $306.56 a share.</p><h2>3. The real winner of the upcoming Tesla split</h2><p>The third key point about Tesla&#39;s upcoming split is that it&#39;s a boon for everyday investors.</p><p>As noted, forward stock splits don&#39;t affect a company&#39;s market cap. In Tesla&#39;s case, its share price will fall to a third of its current value, while its outstanding share count will triple. But for retail investors without access to fractional-share purchases through their online broker, reducing the share price from almost $920 to just over $306 will be a big deal. It&#39;s a lot easier for everyday investors to set aside around $300 to buy a single share of Tesla than it would be to gather $900 for one share, as of the time of this writing.</p><p>There&#39;s no question that retail investors, who&#39;ve played a big role in pushing Tesla&#39;s valuation to nearly $1 trillion, are the biggest winners of the company&#39;s pending stock split.</p><h2>4. It won&#39;t affect Tesla&#39;s competitive advantages</h2><p>The fourth thing to know about Tesla&#39;s Aug. 25 stock split is that it&#39;ll have absolutely no impact on the company&#39;s day-to-day operations. That means it won&#39;t impact the competitive advantages Tesla has ridden to one of the largest corporate valuations in the world.</p><p>Aside from the fact that no other auto company built itself from the ground up to mass production in over five decades, Tesla could reach an important psychological milestone this year. Even with COVID-19 lockdowns hurting production at the Shanghai gigafactory, the company looks to be well on its way to reaching 1 million EVs produced and delivered in 2022.</p><p>In addition to production advantages, Tesla&#39;s batteries continue to be a bright spot in an increasingly crowded industry. Compared to most other EV offerings, the power, range, and capacity offered by Tesla&#39;s batteries are superior. This is what&#39;s helped create such incredible demand for the company&#39;s EV lineup.</p><p>There&#39;s also CEO Elon Musk, who the retail investor community has largely come to embrace as a visionary. Musk has overseen the introduction of four currently sold EV models, and has helped diversify his company to include energy storage products and solar panel installation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b77e18ca8474442b6d19e436ce17b0b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>A Tesla Model S charging. Image source: Tesla.</p><h2>5. It also won&#39;t hide the company&#39;s longer-term risks</h2><p>The fifth and final thing to know about Tesla&#39;s impending stock split next week is that it&#39;s also not going to sweep the company&#39;s longer-term risks under the rug.</p><p>Although Tesla share price has been on fire for more than a decade, there are a number of red flags that suggest this amazing run-up isn&#39;t sustainable. For example, auto stocks are traditionally valued at a single-digit or very low double-digit forward-year price-to-earnings ratio. As for Tesla, investors are having to pay an aggressive multiple of 58 times Wall Street&#39;s forecast earnings for 2023. Even with Tesla being somewhat diversified, this is a lofty multiple for a company that predominantly makes a commoditized product.</p><p>Another big concern for Tesla shareholders is Elon Musk. While he might be considered a visionary by many, he&#39;s also become a major liability. Putting aside the circus that&#39;s accompanied his prospective takeover of social media stock <b>Twitter</b>, Musk has a terrible habit of failing to deliver on his promises. As I&#39;ve previously highlighted, Musk&#39;s promises to put 1 million robotaxis on the road, deliver higher-level full self-driving, and bring the Cybertruck and Tesla Semi into production, have all been pushed back one or more years.</p><p>Lastly, Tesla&#39;s competitive advantages already look to be waning. While the company does offer a sizable EV production advantage, both new and legacy auto stocks are catching up to Tesla when it comes to battery range. With legacy automakers spending tens of billions on EV research and product development, it&#39;s probably going to take more than short-term stock-split euphoria to hold shares at such a premium valuation.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Split: 5 Things to Know About the Upcoming Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Split: 5 Things to Know About the Upcoming Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-18 19:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/18/tesla-stock-split-5-things-to-know-about-the-split/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street and the investing community have been dealt a difficult hand in 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-centric Nasdaq Composite both entered bear market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/18/tesla-stock-split-5-things-to-know-about-the-split/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/18/tesla-stock-split-5-things-to-know-about-the-split/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2260389489","content_text":"Wall Street and the investing community have been dealt a difficult hand in 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-centric Nasdaq Composite both entered bear market territory, the U.S. inflation rate skyrocketed to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, and the U.S. economy delivered back-to-back quarters of gross domestic product declines, signaling a \"technical recession.\"Yet amid this chaos, investors have gravitated to what's arguably the one silver lining this year: stock splits. A stock split allows a publicly traded company the ability to alter its share price and outstanding share count without impacting its market cap or operations.Image source: Getty Images.According to data from Fidelity, 212 public companies have announced and/or enacted stock splits since the beginning of the year. This includes one of the largest and most-popular stocks on the entire planet, electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla (TSLA -0.84%). With Tesla's stock split rapidly approaching, here are five things investors should know.1. When the Tesla stock split will take placePerhaps the most pertinent piece of data for investors to know is when, exactly, Tesla's stock split will take place. The answer is exactly one week from today, on August 25, 2022 prior to the market open.Keep in mind that it can sometimes take stock quote providers and online brokerages a few hours to a full day to recognize that a stock split has taken place. If you wake up and suddenly find that your investment portfolio has lost significant value overnight, or that Tesla's shares are being quoted down 60% or more on Aug. 25, there's a very good chance you can overlook this as a reporting error that'll quickly be remedied by the provider.2. The magnitude of the Tesla stock splitThe second important tidbit of information Tesla's current and prospective investors should know is the magnitude of the forward stock split.In June, Tesla proposed enacting a 3-for-1 forward split. Effectively, this would reduce the company's share price to a third of its current value while increasing the company's outstanding share count by a factor of three. At the August 4 shareholder meeting, Tesla's shareholders voted to approve the company's proposed split.Based on Tesla's closing price of $919.69 on August 16, a 3-for-1 stock split would reduce its share price to around $306.56 a share.3. The real winner of the upcoming Tesla splitThe third key point about Tesla's upcoming split is that it's a boon for everyday investors.As noted, forward stock splits don't affect a company's market cap. In Tesla's case, its share price will fall to a third of its current value, while its outstanding share count will triple. But for retail investors without access to fractional-share purchases through their online broker, reducing the share price from almost $920 to just over $306 will be a big deal. It's a lot easier for everyday investors to set aside around $300 to buy a single share of Tesla than it would be to gather $900 for one share, as of the time of this writing.There's no question that retail investors, who've played a big role in pushing Tesla's valuation to nearly $1 trillion, are the biggest winners of the company's pending stock split.4. It won't affect Tesla's competitive advantagesThe fourth thing to know about Tesla's Aug. 25 stock split is that it'll have absolutely no impact on the company's day-to-day operations. That means it won't impact the competitive advantages Tesla has ridden to one of the largest corporate valuations in the world.Aside from the fact that no other auto company built itself from the ground up to mass production in over five decades, Tesla could reach an important psychological milestone this year. Even with COVID-19 lockdowns hurting production at the Shanghai gigafactory, the company looks to be well on its way to reaching 1 million EVs produced and delivered in 2022.In addition to production advantages, Tesla's batteries continue to be a bright spot in an increasingly crowded industry. Compared to most other EV offerings, the power, range, and capacity offered by Tesla's batteries are superior. This is what's helped create such incredible demand for the company's EV lineup.There's also CEO Elon Musk, who the retail investor community has largely come to embrace as a visionary. Musk has overseen the introduction of four currently sold EV models, and has helped diversify his company to include energy storage products and solar panel installation.A Tesla Model S charging. Image source: Tesla.5. It also won't hide the company's longer-term risksThe fifth and final thing to know about Tesla's impending stock split next week is that it's also not going to sweep the company's longer-term risks under the rug.Although Tesla share price has been on fire for more than a decade, there are a number of red flags that suggest this amazing run-up isn't sustainable. For example, auto stocks are traditionally valued at a single-digit or very low double-digit forward-year price-to-earnings ratio. As for Tesla, investors are having to pay an aggressive multiple of 58 times Wall Street's forecast earnings for 2023. Even with Tesla being somewhat diversified, this is a lofty multiple for a company that predominantly makes a commoditized product.Another big concern for Tesla shareholders is Elon Musk. While he might be considered a visionary by many, he's also become a major liability. Putting aside the circus that's accompanied his prospective takeover of social media stock Twitter, Musk has a terrible habit of failing to deliver on his promises. As I've previously highlighted, Musk's promises to put 1 million robotaxis on the road, deliver higher-level full self-driving, and bring the Cybertruck and Tesla Semi into production, have all been pushed back one or more years.Lastly, Tesla's competitive advantages already look to be waning. While the company does offer a sizable EV production advantage, both new and legacy auto stocks are catching up to Tesla when it comes to battery range. With legacy automakers spending tens of billions on EV research and product development, it's probably going to take more than short-term stock-split euphoria to hold shares at such a premium valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}