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Skyshin
2022-02-11
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2021-03-02
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Is the Federal Reserve the root cause of rising US Treasury yields?
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$$850 😋😋😋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092872772","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365027373,"gmtCreate":1614681989192,"gmtModify":1704773948070,"author":{"id":"3575545135481956","authorId":"3575545135481956","name":"Skyshin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b7fb9ffdfdb9c83a767fa4f6e69c37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575545135481956","idStr":"3575545135481956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??♂️","listText":"??♂️","text":"??♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365027373","repostId":"1140351621","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140351621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614673583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140351621?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-02 16:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Federal Reserve the root cause of rising US Treasury yields?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140351621","media":"新浪财经","summary":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2","content":"<p>The current accelerated rise in US Treasury yields, in my opinion, is fundamentally due to the oversupply of US Treasury bonds, and this upward trend has put the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Oversupply led to a rapid rebound in US Treasury yields.</p><p>Starting in the third quarter of 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose slowly, but accelerated after February this year. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once broke through 1.6%, reaching its highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the fundamental reason is that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief packages totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp expansion of the fiscal deficit and a significant increase in Treasury Bond issuance. As of December 2020, Treasury Bond reached $27.9 trillion, accounting for 137% of GDP, a record high. More importantly, in the same year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, the structure of U.S. Treasury Bond balance investors has changed significantly compared to 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has decreased significantly. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of US Treasury Bond expanded from $7.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, and foreign investors increased their holdings from $3.3 trillion to $3.7 trillion, accounting for about 42%. From 2019 to 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond balances expanded from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%. Of this, foreign official holdings accounted for only $4.2 trillion, or 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that almost all newly issued US Treasury bonds were purchased by domestic US investors.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve has become the main holder of newly issued U.S. Treasury bonds. Domestic investors in U.S. Treasury bonds include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds, and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 was significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve significantly increased its holdings, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. That is, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, accounting for 53%, while funds, insurance companies, and private equity institutions held $1.6 trillion, accounting for 35%, totaling nearly 90%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's increase in its holdings of US Treasury bonds is merely a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for US Treasury bonds. The significant decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in US Treasury prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the U.S. Treasury's $62 billion 7-year Treasury Bond auction saw a bid multiple of only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the supply and demand gap for U.S. Treasury bonds is widening further.</p><p>The Paradox of Large-Scale Issuance of US Treasury Bonds and Rising US Treasury Yields</p><p>First, due to the global oversupply of US Treasury bonds, the US Treasury Department faces a paradox in issuing US Treasury bonds. In order to increase investment demand for US Treasury bonds, the Treasury Department had no choice but to raise the coupon rate, which goes against the original intention of the Treasury Department to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>During economic downturns, the best way to make up for the fiscal deficit is to issue new bonds to repay old ones. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more conducive it is to repaying principal and interest. However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has climbed from 0.55% at the end of July last year to the current 1.44%, an increase of 162%. The coupon rate of newly issued US Treasury bonds will be directly affected by the yield on existing US Treasury bonds.</p><p>As yields rise, the interest burden on the U.S. Treasury will increase, the safe-haven nature of U.S. Treasury bonds may decline, and U.S. Treasury bonds may even default. Therefore, US Treasury bonds cannot be issued indefinitely. The day the interest on US Treasury bonds becomes unpayable is when the issuance of new US Treasury bonds has to stop.</p><p>Secondly, the Federal Reserve faces the paradox of purchasing US Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve's continued purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds are intended to support the Treasury Department in lowering yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and promoting employment and the economy. However, the actual result may not be the same.</p><p>Since February of this year, with improved economic data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rates to control inflation have risen sharply, US Treasury bonds have begun to be sold off, and prices have accelerated their decline.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of US Treasury bonds are currently domestic US institutions. These institutions purchase U.S. Treasury bonds as part of their securities portfolios, so they can change their trading direction at any time depending on the portfolio's yield.</p><p>When US Treasury prices fall to a key level, it will trigger more sell order, causing prices to fall further and making the yield curve exceptionally steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Federal Reserve holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it cannot stop US Treasury yields from rising. Moreover, the more the Federal Reserve buys, the less investment demand there is for US Treasury bonds, which in turn leads to lower US Treasury prices and higher yields.</p><p>The two inherent contradictions mentioned above will constrain the continued issuance of US Treasury bonds and the recovery of the US economy, which leads to the paradox between the original intention and the outcome of US Treasury bond issuance.</p><p>After 2013, the United States experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment. The Federal Reserve's concerns about rising inflation due to a decline in the unemployment rate decreased, while concerns about a \"vicious cycle of lowering inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. To avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve incorporated the average inflation targeting system into its policy reserves in 2019. Following the 2020 pandemic, the wealth gap in the United States widened dramatically, and employment became a priority target for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The average inflation targeting system can expand short-term inflation fluctuations and narrow unemployment rate fluctuations.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Federal Reserve does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshooting and is not conducive to achieving the Fed's forward guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that rising U.S. Treasury yields were a sign of a positive economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Federal Reserve can control, and it will eventually tighten monetary policy and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's appeasement of the market actually led to a further rise in US Treasury yields.</p><p>The paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, US inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental perspective, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not cause rising wages to decline rapidly. In fact, some industries may experience a \"labor shortage\" that will lead to continued wage increases.</p><p>From a technical perspective, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year caused prices to fall sharply by at least 0.5%, which lowered the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation target system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. Therefore, core inflation in the United States is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, and inflation for the whole year will be around 2%.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of US Treasury bonds to control the rate of yield increases. However, as the Federal Reserve's holdings increase, the investment value of US Treasury bonds will further weaken, and the sell-off in international markets will continue to push up yields. The current rise in US Treasury yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Once the pandemic is basically under control and the economy has basically recovered, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macroeconomic data from 2013 to 2014 when quantitative easing withdrew, I believe that this condition can only be met when the US GDP growth rate (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is below 4%. Given factors such as current technological advancements and an aging population, it will likely take longer for the US unemployment rate to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will depreciate further and increase its export of inflation to the world.</p><p>Domestically in the United States, under the Federal Reserve's policy of continuing to buy bonds and maintain low interest rates, the US base money has continued to expand, with M2 reaching 25.9% in January this year, increasing the pressure on the dollar to further depreciate.</p><p>Internationally, differences in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan, and Europe have led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. Meanwhile, adjustments to the international monetary system have led to a further decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, weakening demand for the dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of global trade in goods and services is still priced and settled in US dollars, and the depreciation of the US dollar has caused the United States to export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, international commodity prices have already risen sharply. In January of this year, prices of steel, copper, soybeans, and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, while the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated significantly.</p><p>To increase their tolerance for inflation, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from a fixed inflation target to an average inflation target.</p>","source":"lsy1568765880822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Federal Reserve the root cause of rising US Treasury yields?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Federal Reserve the root cause of rising US Treasury yields?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-02 16:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The current accelerated rise in US Treasury yields, in my opinion, is fundamentally due to the oversupply of US Treasury bonds, and this upward trend has put the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Oversupply led to a rapid rebound in US Treasury yields.</p><p>Starting in the third quarter of 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose slowly, but accelerated after February this year. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once broke through 1.6%, reaching its highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the fundamental reason is that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief packages totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp expansion of the fiscal deficit and a significant increase in Treasury Bond issuance. As of December 2020, Treasury Bond reached $27.9 trillion, accounting for 137% of GDP, a record high. More importantly, in the same year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, the structure of U.S. Treasury Bond balance investors has changed significantly compared to 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has decreased significantly. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of US Treasury Bond expanded from $7.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, and foreign investors increased their holdings from $3.3 trillion to $3.7 trillion, accounting for about 42%. From 2019 to 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond balances expanded from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%. Of this, foreign official holdings accounted for only $4.2 trillion, or 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that almost all newly issued US Treasury bonds were purchased by domestic US investors.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve has become the main holder of newly issued U.S. Treasury bonds. Domestic investors in U.S. Treasury bonds include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds, and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 was significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve significantly increased its holdings, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. That is, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, accounting for 53%, while funds, insurance companies, and private equity institutions held $1.6 trillion, accounting for 35%, totaling nearly 90%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's increase in its holdings of US Treasury bonds is merely a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for US Treasury bonds. The significant decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in US Treasury prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the U.S. Treasury's $62 billion 7-year Treasury Bond auction saw a bid multiple of only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the supply and demand gap for U.S. Treasury bonds is widening further.</p><p>The Paradox of Large-Scale Issuance of US Treasury Bonds and Rising US Treasury Yields</p><p>First, due to the global oversupply of US Treasury bonds, the US Treasury Department faces a paradox in issuing US Treasury bonds. In order to increase investment demand for US Treasury bonds, the Treasury Department had no choice but to raise the coupon rate, which goes against the original intention of the Treasury Department to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>During economic downturns, the best way to make up for the fiscal deficit is to issue new bonds to repay old ones. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more conducive it is to repaying principal and interest. However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has climbed from 0.55% at the end of July last year to the current 1.44%, an increase of 162%. The coupon rate of newly issued US Treasury bonds will be directly affected by the yield on existing US Treasury bonds.</p><p>As yields rise, the interest burden on the U.S. Treasury will increase, the safe-haven nature of U.S. Treasury bonds may decline, and U.S. Treasury bonds may even default. Therefore, US Treasury bonds cannot be issued indefinitely. The day the interest on US Treasury bonds becomes unpayable is when the issuance of new US Treasury bonds has to stop.</p><p>Secondly, the Federal Reserve faces the paradox of purchasing US Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve's continued purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds are intended to support the Treasury Department in lowering yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and promoting employment and the economy. However, the actual result may not be the same.</p><p>Since February of this year, with improved economic data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rates to control inflation have risen sharply, US Treasury bonds have begun to be sold off, and prices have accelerated their decline.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of US Treasury bonds are currently domestic US institutions. These institutions purchase U.S. Treasury bonds as part of their securities portfolios, so they can change their trading direction at any time depending on the portfolio's yield.</p><p>When US Treasury prices fall to a key level, it will trigger more sell order, causing prices to fall further and making the yield curve exceptionally steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Federal Reserve holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it cannot stop US Treasury yields from rising. Moreover, the more the Federal Reserve buys, the less investment demand there is for US Treasury bonds, which in turn leads to lower US Treasury prices and higher yields.</p><p>The two inherent contradictions mentioned above will constrain the continued issuance of US Treasury bonds and the recovery of the US economy, which leads to the paradox between the original intention and the outcome of US Treasury bond issuance.</p><p>After 2013, the United States experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment. The Federal Reserve's concerns about rising inflation due to a decline in the unemployment rate decreased, while concerns about a \"vicious cycle of lowering inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. To avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve incorporated the average inflation targeting system into its policy reserves in 2019. Following the 2020 pandemic, the wealth gap in the United States widened dramatically, and employment became a priority target for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The average inflation targeting system can expand short-term inflation fluctuations and narrow unemployment rate fluctuations.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Federal Reserve does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshooting and is not conducive to achieving the Fed's forward guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that rising U.S. Treasury yields were a sign of a positive economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Federal Reserve can control, and it will eventually tighten monetary policy and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's appeasement of the market actually led to a further rise in US Treasury yields.</p><p>The paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, US inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental perspective, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not cause rising wages to decline rapidly. In fact, some industries may experience a \"labor shortage\" that will lead to continued wage increases.</p><p>From a technical perspective, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year caused prices to fall sharply by at least 0.5%, which lowered the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation target system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. Therefore, core inflation in the United States is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, and inflation for the whole year will be around 2%.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of US Treasury bonds to control the rate of yield increases. However, as the Federal Reserve's holdings increase, the investment value of US Treasury bonds will further weaken, and the sell-off in international markets will continue to push up yields. The current rise in US Treasury yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Once the pandemic is basically under control and the economy has basically recovered, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macroeconomic data from 2013 to 2014 when quantitative easing withdrew, I believe that this condition can only be met when the US GDP growth rate (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is below 4%. Given factors such as current technological advancements and an aging population, it will likely take longer for the US unemployment rate to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will depreciate further and increase its export of inflation to the world.</p><p>Domestically in the United States, under the Federal Reserve's policy of continuing to buy bonds and maintain low interest rates, the US base money has continued to expand, with M2 reaching 25.9% in January this year, increasing the pressure on the dollar to further depreciate.</p><p>Internationally, differences in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan, and Europe have led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. Meanwhile, adjustments to the international monetary system have led to a further decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, weakening demand for the dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of global trade in goods and services is still priced and settled in US dollars, and the depreciation of the US dollar has caused the United States to export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, international commodity prices have already risen sharply. In January of this year, prices of steel, copper, soybeans, and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, while the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated significantly.</p><p>To increase their tolerance for inflation, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from a fixed inflation target to an average inflation target.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140351621","content_text":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2月后加速攀升，上周美国10年期国债收益率一度突破1.6%，达到一年来的最高点。通胀和通胀预期无疑是重要原因，但美债发行供大于求才是根本。\n2020年，美国财政部出台了三轮共计2.2万亿美元的财政纾困计划，财政赤字急剧扩大，国债发行量大幅上升。截至2020年12月，国债余额达27.9万亿美元，与GDP比重高达137%，创下历史新高。更为重要的是，同为危机后财政扩张的第一年，美国国债余额投资者结构较2009年出现了明显变化。\n第一，外国投资者占比大幅下降。2008年至2009年，美国国债余额从7.6万亿美元扩大至8.8万亿美元，外国投资者从3.3万亿美元增持至3.7万亿美元，占比维持在42%左右；2019年至2020年，美国国债余额从19.4万亿美元膨胀至27.9万亿美元，而外国投资者仅从6.8万亿美元微幅增持至7.1万亿美元，占比从35.1%骤降至25.4%，其中外国官方持有仅4.2万亿美元，占比15%，是2007年以来的最低水平。这意味着新增美债几乎都是由美国国内投资者购买。\n第二，美联储成为新增美债的主要持有者。美债的国内投资者包括美联储、商业银行、政府基金、其他机构，2020年它们的结构也较2009年明显不同。一是美联储大幅增持，从2.5万亿美元增至4.7万亿美元，占比17.5%。二是债券基金、对冲基金、保险和私募股权等其他机构的占比升至31.2%，取代政府基金成为最大的国债持有者。即，在2020年新增的4.55万亿美元国债中，美联储持有2.4万亿美元，占53%，基金、保险和私募股权等机构持有1.6万亿，占35%，两者合计近90%。\n美联储对美债的增持只是对财政政策的配合，而非对美债的投资需求。外国投资者占比大幅下降意味着美债供大于求，这是美债价格下降、收益率上升的根本原因。上周美国财政部620亿美元的7年期国债拍卖的投标倍数仅2.04，创2009年以来新低，表明美债供需缺口正在进一步扩大。\n美债大量发行与美债收益率上涨的悖论\n首先，由于美债在全球范围内供大于求，美国财政部面临美债发行的悖论。为了提高美债的投资需求，财政部不得不提高发行票面利率，而提高票面利率又有悖于财政部发行国债的初衷。\n在经济低迷时期，弥补财政赤字的最优手段是发新债还旧债，年限越长、收益率越低越有利于还本付息。但美国10年期国债收益率从去年7月末的0.55%攀升至当前的1.44%，已增长了162%。新发美债的票面利率将直接受存量美债收益率的影响。\n随着收益率的上升，美国财政部的利息负担会越来越高，美债安全资产的属性可能下降，甚至出现美债违约的现象。所以，美债并非可无限量发行，美债利息无法兑付之日，就是美债不得不停止增发之时。\n其次，美联储面临美债购买悖论。美联储持续购入美债，目的是配合财政部压低收益率（尤其是长期利率），同时向社会提供流动性，降低市场利率，促进就业和经济，但实际结果可能并非如此。\n自今年2月份开始，随着经济数据好转，市场对美联储提高基准利率以控制通胀的预期大幅上升，美债开始遭到抛售，价格加速下跌。\n如前所述，当前美债的最大持有者是美国国内机构。这些机构购入美债是将其作为证券资产组合的一部分，因此会根据组合收益率的情况随时改变交易方向。\n当美债价格下跌到关键点位后，会触发更多的卖盘导致价格进一步下跌，使收益率曲线变得异常陡峭。\n因此，即使美联储持有大部分新增国债，仍不能阻止美债收益率上升。不仅如此，美联储买得越多，说明美债的投资需求越少，反而导致美债价格更低、收益率更高。\n上述两对内在矛盾将对美债的持续发行、美国经济复苏形成制约，这就导致了美债发行初衷与结果的悖论。\n美国在2013年后经历了长期的低通胀和低失业率并存，美联储对失业率下降导致通胀上升的担忧减少，而对“通胀和通胀预期不断降低的不良循环”的担忧增加。为了避免美国陷入通货紧缩风险，美联储在2019年将平均通胀目标制纳入政策储备。2020年疫情后，美国贫富差距急剧扩大，就业问题成为美联储货币政策的优先调控目标，而平均通胀目标制可以使通胀短期波动扩大、失业率波动缩小。\n平均通胀目标制意味着美联储无需在通胀达到2%时就立即加息，但也加大了通胀超调的风险，反而不利于实现美联储的前瞻性指引。上周二，美联储公开宣称美债收益率上升是经济向好的表现，应该予以容忍。\n但市场普遍认为，在宽松的货币政策下，经济可能走向过热，导致通胀超过美联储能够控制的范围，最终仍将收紧货币，提高基础利率。因此，美联储对市场的安抚反而导致美债收益率进一步上行。\n悖论将引发三个趋势\n第一，美国通胀将继续上行。从基本面看，工资具有粘性，劳动力的复苏并不会使上涨的工资迅速回落，甚至会有部分行业出现“用工荒”而导致工资继续上涨。\n从技术层面看，去年上半年疫情的暴发使价格急剧下跌至少0.5%，这压低了今年通胀的基数，尤其是3月至4月份通胀的基数效应更大。\n从政策层面看，平均通胀目标制将放任通胀走高至2%以上。因此，今年上半年，美国核心通胀很可能超过2%，全年通胀在2%附近。\n第二，美联储将加大对美债的购买，以控制收益率上行速度。但随着美联储的持有比例越来越高，美债的投资价值将进一步减弱，国际市场的抛售将继续推高收益率。当前美债收益率上涨是新趋势的开始，而非短期现象。\n在疫情得到基本控制、经济基本复苏的条件下，美联储将结束购债。对比2013年至2014年量化宽松退出时的宏观数据，笔者认为，在美国GDP连续两个季度增速（扣除基数因素后）达2.5%以上、失业率低于4%时才满足这一条件。考虑到当前技术进步、人口老龄化等因素，美国失业率稳定在4%以下恐怕需要更久的时间。\n第三，美元将进一步贬值，并加大向全球输出通胀。\n从美国国内看，在美联储持续购债并维持低利率的政策下，美国基础货币持续扩张，今年1月份M2高达25.9%，增加了美元进一步贬值的压力。\n从国际上看，美国与中日欧等主要贸易伙伴在通胀预期上的差异，导致这些货币兑美元的实际汇率更高。同时，国际货币体系的调整导致美元的全球外汇储备份额进一步下降，削弱对美元的需求。\n但全球商品和服务贸易近半数仍由美元计价、结算，美元贬值使美国通过国际贸易和国际金融市场向全球输出通胀。其中，国际大宗商品的价格已先行大幅上涨。今年1月份，钢材、铜、大豆和玉米等同比上涨40%-50%不等，黄金等避险资产价格大幅波动。\n为了提高对通胀的容忍度，欧洲央行和日本央行均受到由固定通胀目标制转变为平均通胀目标制的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9092872772,"gmtCreate":1644594875529,"gmtModify":1676533944871,"author":{"id":"3575545135481956","authorId":"3575545135481956","name":"Skyshin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b7fb9ffdfdb9c83a767fa4f6e69c37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575545135481956","idStr":"3575545135481956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>$850 😋😋😋","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$$850 😋😋😋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092872772","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365027373,"gmtCreate":1614681989192,"gmtModify":1704773948070,"author":{"id":"3575545135481956","authorId":"3575545135481956","name":"Skyshin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b7fb9ffdfdb9c83a767fa4f6e69c37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575545135481956","idStr":"3575545135481956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??♂️","listText":"??♂️","text":"??♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365027373","repostId":"1140351621","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140351621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614673583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140351621?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-02 16:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Federal Reserve the root cause of rising US Treasury yields?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140351621","media":"新浪财经","summary":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2","content":"<p>The current accelerated rise in US Treasury yields, in my opinion, is fundamentally due to the oversupply of US Treasury bonds, and this upward trend has put the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Oversupply led to a rapid rebound in US Treasury yields.</p><p>Starting in the third quarter of 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose slowly, but accelerated after February this year. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once broke through 1.6%, reaching its highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the fundamental reason is that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief packages totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp expansion of the fiscal deficit and a significant increase in Treasury Bond issuance. As of December 2020, Treasury Bond reached $27.9 trillion, accounting for 137% of GDP, a record high. More importantly, in the same year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, the structure of U.S. Treasury Bond balance investors has changed significantly compared to 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has decreased significantly. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of US Treasury Bond expanded from $7.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, and foreign investors increased their holdings from $3.3 trillion to $3.7 trillion, accounting for about 42%. From 2019 to 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond balances expanded from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%. Of this, foreign official holdings accounted for only $4.2 trillion, or 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that almost all newly issued US Treasury bonds were purchased by domestic US investors.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve has become the main holder of newly issued U.S. Treasury bonds. Domestic investors in U.S. Treasury bonds include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds, and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 was significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve significantly increased its holdings, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. That is, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, accounting for 53%, while funds, insurance companies, and private equity institutions held $1.6 trillion, accounting for 35%, totaling nearly 90%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's increase in its holdings of US Treasury bonds is merely a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for US Treasury bonds. The significant decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in US Treasury prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the U.S. Treasury's $62 billion 7-year Treasury Bond auction saw a bid multiple of only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the supply and demand gap for U.S. Treasury bonds is widening further.</p><p>The Paradox of Large-Scale Issuance of US Treasury Bonds and Rising US Treasury Yields</p><p>First, due to the global oversupply of US Treasury bonds, the US Treasury Department faces a paradox in issuing US Treasury bonds. In order to increase investment demand for US Treasury bonds, the Treasury Department had no choice but to raise the coupon rate, which goes against the original intention of the Treasury Department to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>During economic downturns, the best way to make up for the fiscal deficit is to issue new bonds to repay old ones. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more conducive it is to repaying principal and interest. However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has climbed from 0.55% at the end of July last year to the current 1.44%, an increase of 162%. The coupon rate of newly issued US Treasury bonds will be directly affected by the yield on existing US Treasury bonds.</p><p>As yields rise, the interest burden on the U.S. Treasury will increase, the safe-haven nature of U.S. Treasury bonds may decline, and U.S. Treasury bonds may even default. Therefore, US Treasury bonds cannot be issued indefinitely. The day the interest on US Treasury bonds becomes unpayable is when the issuance of new US Treasury bonds has to stop.</p><p>Secondly, the Federal Reserve faces the paradox of purchasing US Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve's continued purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds are intended to support the Treasury Department in lowering yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and promoting employment and the economy. However, the actual result may not be the same.</p><p>Since February of this year, with improved economic data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rates to control inflation have risen sharply, US Treasury bonds have begun to be sold off, and prices have accelerated their decline.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of US Treasury bonds are currently domestic US institutions. These institutions purchase U.S. Treasury bonds as part of their securities portfolios, so they can change their trading direction at any time depending on the portfolio's yield.</p><p>When US Treasury prices fall to a key level, it will trigger more sell order, causing prices to fall further and making the yield curve exceptionally steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Federal Reserve holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it cannot stop US Treasury yields from rising. Moreover, the more the Federal Reserve buys, the less investment demand there is for US Treasury bonds, which in turn leads to lower US Treasury prices and higher yields.</p><p>The two inherent contradictions mentioned above will constrain the continued issuance of US Treasury bonds and the recovery of the US economy, which leads to the paradox between the original intention and the outcome of US Treasury bond issuance.</p><p>After 2013, the United States experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment. The Federal Reserve's concerns about rising inflation due to a decline in the unemployment rate decreased, while concerns about a \"vicious cycle of lowering inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. To avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve incorporated the average inflation targeting system into its policy reserves in 2019. Following the 2020 pandemic, the wealth gap in the United States widened dramatically, and employment became a priority target for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The average inflation targeting system can expand short-term inflation fluctuations and narrow unemployment rate fluctuations.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Federal Reserve does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshooting and is not conducive to achieving the Fed's forward guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that rising U.S. Treasury yields were a sign of a positive economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Federal Reserve can control, and it will eventually tighten monetary policy and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's appeasement of the market actually led to a further rise in US Treasury yields.</p><p>The paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, US inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental perspective, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not cause rising wages to decline rapidly. In fact, some industries may experience a \"labor shortage\" that will lead to continued wage increases.</p><p>From a technical perspective, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year caused prices to fall sharply by at least 0.5%, which lowered the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation target system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. Therefore, core inflation in the United States is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, and inflation for the whole year will be around 2%.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of US Treasury bonds to control the rate of yield increases. However, as the Federal Reserve's holdings increase, the investment value of US Treasury bonds will further weaken, and the sell-off in international markets will continue to push up yields. The current rise in US Treasury yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Once the pandemic is basically under control and the economy has basically recovered, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macroeconomic data from 2013 to 2014 when quantitative easing withdrew, I believe that this condition can only be met when the US GDP growth rate (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is below 4%. Given factors such as current technological advancements and an aging population, it will likely take longer for the US unemployment rate to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will depreciate further and increase its export of inflation to the world.</p><p>Domestically in the United States, under the Federal Reserve's policy of continuing to buy bonds and maintain low interest rates, the US base money has continued to expand, with M2 reaching 25.9% in January this year, increasing the pressure on the dollar to further depreciate.</p><p>Internationally, differences in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan, and Europe have led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. Meanwhile, adjustments to the international monetary system have led to a further decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, weakening demand for the dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of global trade in goods and services is still priced and settled in US dollars, and the depreciation of the US dollar has caused the United States to export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, international commodity prices have already risen sharply. In January of this year, prices of steel, copper, soybeans, and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, while the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated significantly.</p><p>To increase their tolerance for inflation, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from a fixed inflation target to an average inflation target.</p>","source":"lsy1568765880822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Federal Reserve the root cause of rising US Treasury yields?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Federal Reserve the root cause of rising US Treasury yields?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-02 16:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The current accelerated rise in US Treasury yields, in my opinion, is fundamentally due to the oversupply of US Treasury bonds, and this upward trend has put the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.</p><p>Oversupply led to a rapid rebound in US Treasury yields.</p><p>Starting in the third quarter of 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond yields rose slowly, but accelerated after February this year. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond once broke through 1.6%, reaching its highest point in a year. Inflation and inflation expectations are undoubtedly important reasons, but the fundamental reason is that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand.</p><p>In 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department introduced three rounds of fiscal relief packages totaling $2.2 trillion, resulting in a sharp expansion of the fiscal deficit and a significant increase in Treasury Bond issuance. As of December 2020, Treasury Bond reached $27.9 trillion, accounting for 137% of GDP, a record high. More importantly, in the same year of post-crisis fiscal expansion, the structure of U.S. Treasury Bond balance investors has changed significantly compared to 2009.</p><p>First, the proportion of foreign investors has decreased significantly. From 2008 to 2009, the balance of US Treasury Bond expanded from $7.6 trillion to $8.8 trillion, and foreign investors increased their holdings from $3.3 trillion to $3.7 trillion, accounting for about 42%. From 2019 to 2020, U.S. Treasury Bond balances expanded from $19.4 trillion to $27.9 trillion, while foreign investors only slightly increased their holdings from $6.8 trillion to $7.1 trillion, a sharp drop from 35.1% to 25.4%. Of this, foreign official holdings accounted for only $4.2 trillion, or 15%, the lowest level since 2007. This means that almost all newly issued US Treasury bonds were purchased by domestic US investors.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve has become the main holder of newly issued U.S. Treasury bonds. Domestic investors in U.S. Treasury bonds include the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, government funds, and other institutions, and their structure in 2020 was significantly different from that in 2009. First, the Federal Reserve significantly increased its holdings, from $2.5 trillion to $4.7 trillion, accounting for 17.5%. Second, the share of other institutions such as bond funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, and private equity rose to 31.2%, replacing government funds as the largest holders of Treasury Bond. That is, of the $4.55 trillion in Treasury Bond added in 2020, the Federal Reserve held $2.4 trillion, accounting for 53%, while funds, insurance companies, and private equity institutions held $1.6 trillion, accounting for 35%, totaling nearly 90%.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's increase in its holdings of US Treasury bonds is merely a coordination of fiscal policy, not an investment demand for US Treasury bonds. The significant decline in the proportion of foreign investors means that the supply of US Treasury bonds exceeds demand, which is the fundamental reason for the decline in US Treasury prices and the rise in yields. Last week, the U.S. Treasury's $62 billion 7-year Treasury Bond auction saw a bid multiple of only 2.04, a new low since 2009, indicating that the supply and demand gap for U.S. Treasury bonds is widening further.</p><p>The Paradox of Large-Scale Issuance of US Treasury Bonds and Rising US Treasury Yields</p><p>First, due to the global oversupply of US Treasury bonds, the US Treasury Department faces a paradox in issuing US Treasury bonds. In order to increase investment demand for US Treasury bonds, the Treasury Department had no choice but to raise the coupon rate, which goes against the original intention of the Treasury Department to issue Treasury Bond.</p><p>During economic downturns, the best way to make up for the fiscal deficit is to issue new bonds to repay old ones. The longer the term and the lower the yield, the more conducive it is to repaying principal and interest. However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has climbed from 0.55% at the end of July last year to the current 1.44%, an increase of 162%. The coupon rate of newly issued US Treasury bonds will be directly affected by the yield on existing US Treasury bonds.</p><p>As yields rise, the interest burden on the U.S. Treasury will increase, the safe-haven nature of U.S. Treasury bonds may decline, and U.S. Treasury bonds may even default. Therefore, US Treasury bonds cannot be issued indefinitely. The day the interest on US Treasury bonds becomes unpayable is when the issuance of new US Treasury bonds has to stop.</p><p>Secondly, the Federal Reserve faces the paradox of purchasing US Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve's continued purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds are intended to support the Treasury Department in lowering yields (especially long-term interest rates), while providing liquidity to society, lowering market interest rates, and promoting employment and the economy. However, the actual result may not be the same.</p><p>Since February of this year, with improved economic data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rates to control inflation have risen sharply, US Treasury bonds have begun to be sold off, and prices have accelerated their decline.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the largest holders of US Treasury bonds are currently domestic US institutions. These institutions purchase U.S. Treasury bonds as part of their securities portfolios, so they can change their trading direction at any time depending on the portfolio's yield.</p><p>When US Treasury prices fall to a key level, it will trigger more sell order, causing prices to fall further and making the yield curve exceptionally steep.</p><p>Therefore, even if the Federal Reserve holds most of the new Treasury Bond, it cannot stop US Treasury yields from rising. Moreover, the more the Federal Reserve buys, the less investment demand there is for US Treasury bonds, which in turn leads to lower US Treasury prices and higher yields.</p><p>The two inherent contradictions mentioned above will constrain the continued issuance of US Treasury bonds and the recovery of the US economy, which leads to the paradox between the original intention and the outcome of US Treasury bond issuance.</p><p>After 2013, the United States experienced a prolonged period of low inflation and low unemployment. The Federal Reserve's concerns about rising inflation due to a decline in the unemployment rate decreased, while concerns about a \"vicious cycle of lowering inflation and inflation expectations\" increased. To avoid the risk of deflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve incorporated the average inflation targeting system into its policy reserves in 2019. Following the 2020 pandemic, the wealth gap in the United States widened dramatically, and employment became a priority target for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The average inflation targeting system can expand short-term inflation fluctuations and narrow unemployment rate fluctuations.</p><p>The average inflation targeting system means that the Federal Reserve does not need to rate hike immediately when inflation reaches 2%, but it also increases the risk of inflation overshooting and is not conducive to achieving the Fed's forward guidance. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve publicly declared that rising U.S. Treasury yields were a sign of a positive economy and should be tolerated.</p><p>However, the market generally believes that under loose monetary policy, the economy may overheat, causing inflation to exceed the range that the Federal Reserve can control, and it will eventually tighten monetary policy and raise the base interest rate. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's appeasement of the market actually led to a further rise in US Treasury yields.</p><p>The paradox will trigger three trends</p><p>First, US inflation will continue to rise. From a fundamental perspective, wages are sticky, and the recovery of the labor force will not cause rising wages to decline rapidly. In fact, some industries may experience a \"labor shortage\" that will lead to continued wage increases.</p><p>From a technical perspective, the outbreak of the pandemic in the first half of last year caused prices to fall sharply by at least 0.5%, which lowered the base of inflation this year, especially from March to April.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the average inflation target system will allow inflation to rise above 2%. Therefore, core inflation in the United States is likely to exceed 2% in the first half of this year, and inflation for the whole year will be around 2%.</p><p>Second, the Federal Reserve will increase its purchases of US Treasury bonds to control the rate of yield increases. However, as the Federal Reserve's holdings increase, the investment value of US Treasury bonds will further weaken, and the sell-off in international markets will continue to push up yields. The current rise in US Treasury yields is the beginning of a new trend, not a short-term phenomenon.</p><p>Once the pandemic is basically under control and the economy has basically recovered, the Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases. Comparing the macroeconomic data from 2013 to 2014 when quantitative easing withdrew, I believe that this condition can only be met when the US GDP growth rate (after deducting the base factor) reaches more than 2.5% for two consecutive quarters and the unemployment rate is below 4%. Given factors such as current technological advancements and an aging population, it will likely take longer for the US unemployment rate to stabilize below 4%.</p><p>Third, the US dollar will depreciate further and increase its export of inflation to the world.</p><p>Domestically in the United States, under the Federal Reserve's policy of continuing to buy bonds and maintain low interest rates, the US base money has continued to expand, with M2 reaching 25.9% in January this year, increasing the pressure on the dollar to further depreciate.</p><p>Internationally, differences in inflation expectations between the United States and major trading partners such as China, Japan, and Europe have led to higher real exchange rates for these currencies against the US dollar. Meanwhile, adjustments to the international monetary system have led to a further decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, weakening demand for the dollar.</p><p>However, nearly half of global trade in goods and services is still priced and settled in US dollars, and the depreciation of the US dollar has caused the United States to export inflation to the world through international trade and international financial markets. Among them, international commodity prices have already risen sharply. In January of this year, prices of steel, copper, soybeans, and corn rose by 40%-50% year-on-year, while the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold fluctuated significantly.</p><p>To increase their tolerance for inflation, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are under pressure to shift from a fixed inflation target to an average inflation target.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-02/doc-ikftpnnz0602998.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140351621","content_text":"当前美债收益率回升加快，笔者认为，其根本原因在于美债供过于求，且这种回升趋势已使美国财政部和美联储陷入两难困境。\n供大于求导致美债收益率快速回升\n从2020年三季度开始，美国国债收益率缓慢上行，今年2月后加速攀升，上周美国10年期国债收益率一度突破1.6%，达到一年来的最高点。通胀和通胀预期无疑是重要原因，但美债发行供大于求才是根本。\n2020年，美国财政部出台了三轮共计2.2万亿美元的财政纾困计划，财政赤字急剧扩大，国债发行量大幅上升。截至2020年12月，国债余额达27.9万亿美元，与GDP比重高达137%，创下历史新高。更为重要的是，同为危机后财政扩张的第一年，美国国债余额投资者结构较2009年出现了明显变化。\n第一，外国投资者占比大幅下降。2008年至2009年，美国国债余额从7.6万亿美元扩大至8.8万亿美元，外国投资者从3.3万亿美元增持至3.7万亿美元，占比维持在42%左右；2019年至2020年，美国国债余额从19.4万亿美元膨胀至27.9万亿美元，而外国投资者仅从6.8万亿美元微幅增持至7.1万亿美元，占比从35.1%骤降至25.4%，其中外国官方持有仅4.2万亿美元，占比15%，是2007年以来的最低水平。这意味着新增美债几乎都是由美国国内投资者购买。\n第二，美联储成为新增美债的主要持有者。美债的国内投资者包括美联储、商业银行、政府基金、其他机构，2020年它们的结构也较2009年明显不同。一是美联储大幅增持，从2.5万亿美元增至4.7万亿美元，占比17.5%。二是债券基金、对冲基金、保险和私募股权等其他机构的占比升至31.2%，取代政府基金成为最大的国债持有者。即，在2020年新增的4.55万亿美元国债中，美联储持有2.4万亿美元，占53%，基金、保险和私募股权等机构持有1.6万亿，占35%，两者合计近90%。\n美联储对美债的增持只是对财政政策的配合，而非对美债的投资需求。外国投资者占比大幅下降意味着美债供大于求，这是美债价格下降、收益率上升的根本原因。上周美国财政部620亿美元的7年期国债拍卖的投标倍数仅2.04，创2009年以来新低，表明美债供需缺口正在进一步扩大。\n美债大量发行与美债收益率上涨的悖论\n首先，由于美债在全球范围内供大于求，美国财政部面临美债发行的悖论。为了提高美债的投资需求，财政部不得不提高发行票面利率，而提高票面利率又有悖于财政部发行国债的初衷。\n在经济低迷时期，弥补财政赤字的最优手段是发新债还旧债，年限越长、收益率越低越有利于还本付息。但美国10年期国债收益率从去年7月末的0.55%攀升至当前的1.44%，已增长了162%。新发美债的票面利率将直接受存量美债收益率的影响。\n随着收益率的上升，美国财政部的利息负担会越来越高，美债安全资产的属性可能下降，甚至出现美债违约的现象。所以，美债并非可无限量发行，美债利息无法兑付之日，就是美债不得不停止增发之时。\n其次，美联储面临美债购买悖论。美联储持续购入美债，目的是配合财政部压低收益率（尤其是长期利率），同时向社会提供流动性，降低市场利率，促进就业和经济，但实际结果可能并非如此。\n自今年2月份开始，随着经济数据好转，市场对美联储提高基准利率以控制通胀的预期大幅上升，美债开始遭到抛售，价格加速下跌。\n如前所述，当前美债的最大持有者是美国国内机构。这些机构购入美债是将其作为证券资产组合的一部分，因此会根据组合收益率的情况随时改变交易方向。\n当美债价格下跌到关键点位后，会触发更多的卖盘导致价格进一步下跌，使收益率曲线变得异常陡峭。\n因此，即使美联储持有大部分新增国债，仍不能阻止美债收益率上升。不仅如此，美联储买得越多，说明美债的投资需求越少，反而导致美债价格更低、收益率更高。\n上述两对内在矛盾将对美债的持续发行、美国经济复苏形成制约，这就导致了美债发行初衷与结果的悖论。\n美国在2013年后经历了长期的低通胀和低失业率并存，美联储对失业率下降导致通胀上升的担忧减少，而对“通胀和通胀预期不断降低的不良循环”的担忧增加。为了避免美国陷入通货紧缩风险，美联储在2019年将平均通胀目标制纳入政策储备。2020年疫情后，美国贫富差距急剧扩大，就业问题成为美联储货币政策的优先调控目标，而平均通胀目标制可以使通胀短期波动扩大、失业率波动缩小。\n平均通胀目标制意味着美联储无需在通胀达到2%时就立即加息，但也加大了通胀超调的风险，反而不利于实现美联储的前瞻性指引。上周二，美联储公开宣称美债收益率上升是经济向好的表现，应该予以容忍。\n但市场普遍认为，在宽松的货币政策下，经济可能走向过热，导致通胀超过美联储能够控制的范围，最终仍将收紧货币，提高基础利率。因此，美联储对市场的安抚反而导致美债收益率进一步上行。\n悖论将引发三个趋势\n第一，美国通胀将继续上行。从基本面看，工资具有粘性，劳动力的复苏并不会使上涨的工资迅速回落，甚至会有部分行业出现“用工荒”而导致工资继续上涨。\n从技术层面看，去年上半年疫情的暴发使价格急剧下跌至少0.5%，这压低了今年通胀的基数，尤其是3月至4月份通胀的基数效应更大。\n从政策层面看，平均通胀目标制将放任通胀走高至2%以上。因此，今年上半年，美国核心通胀很可能超过2%，全年通胀在2%附近。\n第二，美联储将加大对美债的购买，以控制收益率上行速度。但随着美联储的持有比例越来越高，美债的投资价值将进一步减弱，国际市场的抛售将继续推高收益率。当前美债收益率上涨是新趋势的开始，而非短期现象。\n在疫情得到基本控制、经济基本复苏的条件下，美联储将结束购债。对比2013年至2014年量化宽松退出时的宏观数据，笔者认为，在美国GDP连续两个季度增速（扣除基数因素后）达2.5%以上、失业率低于4%时才满足这一条件。考虑到当前技术进步、人口老龄化等因素，美国失业率稳定在4%以下恐怕需要更久的时间。\n第三，美元将进一步贬值，并加大向全球输出通胀。\n从美国国内看，在美联储持续购债并维持低利率的政策下，美国基础货币持续扩张，今年1月份M2高达25.9%，增加了美元进一步贬值的压力。\n从国际上看，美国与中日欧等主要贸易伙伴在通胀预期上的差异，导致这些货币兑美元的实际汇率更高。同时，国际货币体系的调整导致美元的全球外汇储备份额进一步下降，削弱对美元的需求。\n但全球商品和服务贸易近半数仍由美元计价、结算，美元贬值使美国通过国际贸易和国际金融市场向全球输出通胀。其中，国际大宗商品的价格已先行大幅上涨。今年1月份，钢材、铜、大豆和玉米等同比上涨40%-50%不等，黄金等避险资产价格大幅波动。\n为了提高对通胀的容忍度，欧洲央行和日本央行均受到由固定通胀目标制转变为平均通胀目标制的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
