SamuelTse personal page - To The Moon

SamuelTse

SamuelTse

No personal profile

104Follow

2Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-05-08

?

Is Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?

2021-06-05

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-15

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-25

?

Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns of the global market in the coming year

2021-06-15

?

Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly

2021-06-08

?

White House: Must work with allies to secure supply of metals needed for electric vehicles

2021-06-08

?

"Tax increase + high inflation", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks

2021-06-05

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-08

?

Does China need to worry about imported inflation?

2021-06-12

?

Reminder: The lunch break arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575693618857163","uuid":"3575693618857163","gmtCreate":1612798029956,"gmtModify":1704447493217,"name":"SamuelTse","pinyin":"samueltse","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":104,"tweetSize":0,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.20","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.06","exceedPercentage":"93.92%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.12%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":166186427,"gmtCreate":1623996664869,"gmtModify":1703826096291,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166186427","repostId":"2144572198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144572198","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623993218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144572198?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Over 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year is coming tonight, when more than $2 trillion in U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve has hinted that liquidity may tighten. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks..</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September, December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery on the same day. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion S&P 500 options, are worth more than $2 trillion in total.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting new highs recently, most open interest prices in June are expected to be lower than current spot prices. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed with strike prices around 3900 and 4150. This means there may be some support around these points after this Friday until they are refilled with a new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the four witches is very huge in the calendar,<b>But what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and hints of the Fed's liquidity turning point have already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index was only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the dead market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely high, especially retail group stocks, such as GME and AMC, etc.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out,<b>It is very dangerous to coexist with extremely low market volatility and a large number of bullish gamma options expiring.</b>Because once the positions are collectively closed, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. At the same time, VIX futures are rising relative to the S&P 500 Beta, suggesting that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will pick up and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. But on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>68 counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase facilities, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase rate is only $520.9 billion. This means that the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Since last Wednesday, it exceeded the $500 billion mark for the first time in history, the single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Over 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOver 2 trillion U.S. stock options decisive battle tonight's \"Four Witches Day\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second \"Four Witches Day\" of U.S. stocks this year is coming tonight, when more than $2 trillion in U.S. stock options will expire. In addition, the Federal Reserve has hinted that liquidity may tighten. This \"Four Witches Day\" may be a turning point for U.S. stocks..</p><p>Quadruplewitchingday refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the U.S. market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September, December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery on the same day. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes will bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other.</p><p><b>Options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion S&P 500 options, are worth more than $2 trillion in total.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. stocks have been hitting new highs recently, most open interest prices in June are expected to be lower than current spot prices. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed with strike prices around 3900 and 4150. This means there may be some support around these points after this Friday until they are refilled with a new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the four witches is very huge in the calendar,<b>But what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of U.S. stocks was very low before, and hints of the Fed's liquidity turning point have already come out.</b></p><p>In the past 13 trading days, the volatility of the S&P 500 index was only 5.1%, which is the lowest volatility since 2019. However, compared with the dead market, the volatility of individual stocks is extremely high, especially retail group stocks, such as GME and AMC, etc.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out,<b>It is very dangerous to coexist with extremely low market volatility and a large number of bullish gamma options expiring.</b>Because once the positions are collectively closed, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. At the same time, VIX futures are rising relative to the S&P 500 Beta, suggesting that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will pick up and the market will become more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but also admitted that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. But on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>68 counterparties put $756 billion in funds to the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repurchase facilities, setting a record high of $584 billion.</b>And the day before. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase rate is only $520.9 billion. This means that the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion in just one day, a whopping 45% increase.</p><p>The effect of the Fed's reverse repurchase is just the opposite of that of China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repurchase is to release liquidity, while the Fed's reverse repurchase is to recover liquidity. Since last Wednesday, it exceeded the $500 billion mark for the first time in history, the single-day usage of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UVXY":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"VIXY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SVXY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169597365,"gmtCreate":1623841740257,"gmtModify":1703821059137,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169597365","repostId":"1110862709","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169699105,"gmtCreate":1623831436307,"gmtModify":1703820771890,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169699105","repostId":"1132950320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132950320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623829906,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132950320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Layoffs, executive resignations, and repeated rejections, Apple has been really difficult to build cars in the past seven years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132950320","media":"AI前线","summary":"七年过去了，苹果汽车还是个 PPT 产品吗？\n\n屡被拒绝的苹果\n近日，根据路透社报道，苹果公司正在与宁德时代、比亚迪就电动汽车项目的电池供应进行初步洽谈。\n更早之前，苹果被传出与现代、日产等传统车企洽","content":"<p>Seven years have passed, is Apple Car still a PPT product?<b>Repeatedly rejected apples</b></p><p>Recently, according to Reuters, Apple is conducting preliminary negotiations with CATL and BYD on battery supply for electric vehicle projects.</p><p>Earlier, Apple was rumored to be negotiating cooperation with traditional car companies such as Hyundai and Nissan. This negotiation became the focus of the industry. There were even rumors that Apple had actually signed relevant agreements with Hyundai's subsidiaries, but unfortunately there was no result in the end.</p><p>According to Wall Street News, as early as May 2018, Apple was in talks with German auto giant Volkswagen to produce an autonomous employee shuttle based on the T6 Transporter commercial vehicle-a plan that will lead to the development of Apple cars for the mass market. But the partnership between the two companies was stifled after a series of test crashes and employee leaks, with little disclosure about the matter.</p><p>Since launching the Titan Project in 2014 and making it clear that it wants to enter the automotive industry, Apple has suffered repeated setbacks in advancing its own plans and seeking partners. As a result, seven years have passed, and the outside world has not seen much substantial progress. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently claimed that the Apple Car may not launch until 2028 or later given the stalemate in negotiations, so expect a long wait to see it on the road.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, Apple has a small team dedicated to developing a new car, hoping to eventually compete with Tesla, but the development work is still in its early stages. It will take at least five years for Apple to launch a self-driving electric car, because the research and development work is still in its infancy. Combined with the forecasts of the above analysts, it will really take some time to wait for this Apple car.</p><p><b>Layoffs, frequent executive departures</b></p><p>Why is it so difficult for Apple to build a car?</p><p>There hasn't been much movement for a long time since Apple launched the \"Project Titan\" autonomous driving program in 2014. In 2018, what exposed the progress of this project turned out to be a leak, and relevant documents showed that Apple's autonomous driving project had more than 5,000 employees at that time, of which about 2,700 were core employees.</p><p>In January 2019, the \"Titan Project\" was reported to be laid off again, and more than 200 employees were laid off in this incident.</p><p>Unlike the past, an Apple spokesman acknowledged the news of layoffs and said the company still believes there are opportunities in the field of autonomous driving:</p><p>\"At Apple, we have a very talented team working on autonomous systems and related technologies. In 2019, they will focus their work on several key areas, and some team members will be transferred to projects in other departments of the company, where they will support machine learning and other projects across Apple. However, we continue to believe that there are huge opportunities for autonomous systems and that Apple has the unique ability to contribute. This is the most ambitious machine learning project ever. \" As mentioned earlier, Apple's autonomous driving plan sprouted as early as 2014. It is said that at that time, more than 1,000 employees were working on the project at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, San Francisco. However, as internal strife, leadership issues and other privacy issues affected the project, Apple laid off employees and fired hundreds of employees on the project.</p><p>A month later, the safety report of Apple's self-driving car was pointed out to be \"too simple\", with only seven short pages, and even fewer key safety-related contents.</p><p>Basically, it can be said that since the establishment of Apple's autonomous driving project, as long as it appears on news pages, it is basically not good news.</p><p>In the second half of 2019, the \"Titan Project\" finally had pretty good news: In June, Apple officially acquired Drive.ai, a \"mom-and-pop store\" co-founded by AI big coffee Andrew Ng and his wife. Inject fresh vitality into its own self-driving project.</p><p>Then, there was another long period of silence, and the progress of Apple's autonomous driving disappeared from the public's view again. Until January 2020, new progress appeared.</p><p>On January 29, local time, some media discovered that Apple published a paper on Arxiv.org. The paper pointed out that Apple scientist Yichuan Charlie Tang and his team are using a method to simulate the driving scene of vehicles merging and gradually create a more diverse simulation environment.</p><p>Tang and co-authors write: \"We demonstrate this technology in a challenging multi-agent lane change simulation. In this simulation environment, experimental targets must interact and negotiate with other vehicles to successfully merge on the road. Although the environment starts with simple road conditions, as the training progresses, we increase its complexity by repeatedly adding increasingly diverse factors to the agent'zoo '. Qualitatively, we found that through self-training, experimental targets automatically learn interesting behaviors, such as defensive driving, overtaking, giving way, and using signal lights to communicate with other agents. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01883ebc73afc1f71d865339da65ecbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Lane change simulation schematic diagram</p><p>As explained by the researchers, lane-changing behavior is considered a complex operation in the field of autonomous driving because it requires the driving system to accurately predict intentions and respond accordingly. Traditional solutions make assumptions and rely on manually coded behaviors, but these flexibility-limited and fragile strategies do not handle edge cases well, such as several vehicles trying to merge into the same lane at the same time. In contrast to rule-based systems, reinforcement learning directly learns strategies through repeated interactions with the environment.</p><p>Although it is still being tested in a simulated environment, Apple's autonomous driving has finally shown some decent progress.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, many executives of Apple's autonomous driving have resigned one after another. In February, Benjamin Lyon, a veteran member of Apple's self-driving, officially left. It is reported that Benjamin Lyon is one of the founders of Apple's self-driving car project and served as Apple's senior director of self-driving hardware.</p><p>During his 21 years at Apple, he worked on the research and development of Touch ID, a fingerprint recognition technology for iPhone, and then he joined Apple's self-driving car team. In the same month, Jaime Waydo, who is in charge of the self-driving car safety and supervision team, left Apple, and the engineer was praised by Apple CEO Cook as \"the mother of all artificial intelligence projects.\" In the following months, three more executives left one after another.</p><p>According to relevant sources, Apple's chip division, led by Johny Srouji, is also involved in automotive research and development. Since 2018, Srouji's team has been developing customized Arm-based chips, mainly focusing on machine learning processing to drive the underlying self-driving car system.</p><p>Since 2017, Apple has been testing autonomous technology on public roads. Cars tested by companies averaged 118 miles in 2019 until human safety drivers needed control. According to the California Department of Vehicles, this figure is an increase from 1 mile per hand-dropped drive in 2018. According to the California Department of Vehicles, the company owns 66 vehicles. This is an increase from 55 licensed vehicles as of mid-2018.</p><p><b>In the excitement of Robotaxi, there is no Apple</b></p><p>In the past two years, Robotaxi has been in the limelight in the field of autonomous driving, and many domestic and foreign companies have deployed in this field.</p><p>On September 26, 2019, Baidu launched Robotaxi service to the public in Changsha City, Hunan Province; On August 5, 2019, Didi Chuxing announced that its autonomous driving department had been upgraded to an independent company, focusing on autonomous driving research and development, product applications and related business development. It is understood that RoboTaxi is also one of the main businesses developed by Didi Autonomous Driving Company. As a domestic travel service provider, Didi seems to have innate advantages in this field; Pony.ai is the first company to launch Robotaxi services in both China and the United States. In addition to Beijing, it currently provides services to the public in Guangzhou, China, Irvine, California, and Fremont.</p><p>In Beijing, the service scope of Pony.ai Robotaxi will cover the core operating area of 150 square kilometers in Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, including about 150 sites. The operating hours will last from 8:30 am to 22:30 pm, including morning and evening peak hours and night time.</p><p>From 2017 to 2018, BMW, Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and other car manufacturers joined forces with Intel, Nvidia, Google, Lyft and other companies to enter RoboTaxi, and this is also the hottest period for autonomous driving.</p><p>In April 2019, Tesla founder Elon Musk publicly stated that the Tesla RoboTaxi network will be established in 2020. As part of the Tesla network's \"RoboTaxi\" service, owners of operating vehicles can earn up to $30,000 in revenue every year. Musk has set his sights on the autonomous mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) market. In a conference call after Tesla announced its rate hike, Musk pointed out that RoboTaxi could eventually push the company to a market value of $500 billion.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that, just like the promise of \"realizing fully autonomous driving by 2020\", most companies set 2025 as the target year for fully realizing RoboTaxi. From this point of view, it is somewhat difficult for Apple to catch up with this wave.</p>","source":"lsy1580199951562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Layoffs, executive resignations, and repeated rejections, Apple has been really difficult to build cars in the past seven years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLayoffs, executive resignations, and repeated rejections, Apple has been really difficult to build cars in the past seven years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AI前线</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 15:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Seven years have passed, is Apple Car still a PPT product?<b>Repeatedly rejected apples</b></p><p>Recently, according to Reuters, Apple is conducting preliminary negotiations with CATL and BYD on battery supply for electric vehicle projects.</p><p>Earlier, Apple was rumored to be negotiating cooperation with traditional car companies such as Hyundai and Nissan. This negotiation became the focus of the industry. There were even rumors that Apple had actually signed relevant agreements with Hyundai's subsidiaries, but unfortunately there was no result in the end.</p><p>According to Wall Street News, as early as May 2018, Apple was in talks with German auto giant Volkswagen to produce an autonomous employee shuttle based on the T6 Transporter commercial vehicle-a plan that will lead to the development of Apple cars for the mass market. But the partnership between the two companies was stifled after a series of test crashes and employee leaks, with little disclosure about the matter.</p><p>Since launching the Titan Project in 2014 and making it clear that it wants to enter the automotive industry, Apple has suffered repeated setbacks in advancing its own plans and seeking partners. As a result, seven years have passed, and the outside world has not seen much substantial progress. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently claimed that the Apple Car may not launch until 2028 or later given the stalemate in negotiations, so expect a long wait to see it on the road.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, Apple has a small team dedicated to developing a new car, hoping to eventually compete with Tesla, but the development work is still in its early stages. It will take at least five years for Apple to launch a self-driving electric car, because the research and development work is still in its infancy. Combined with the forecasts of the above analysts, it will really take some time to wait for this Apple car.</p><p><b>Layoffs, frequent executive departures</b></p><p>Why is it so difficult for Apple to build a car?</p><p>There hasn't been much movement for a long time since Apple launched the \"Project Titan\" autonomous driving program in 2014. In 2018, what exposed the progress of this project turned out to be a leak, and relevant documents showed that Apple's autonomous driving project had more than 5,000 employees at that time, of which about 2,700 were core employees.</p><p>In January 2019, the \"Titan Project\" was reported to be laid off again, and more than 200 employees were laid off in this incident.</p><p>Unlike the past, an Apple spokesman acknowledged the news of layoffs and said the company still believes there are opportunities in the field of autonomous driving:</p><p>\"At Apple, we have a very talented team working on autonomous systems and related technologies. In 2019, they will focus their work on several key areas, and some team members will be transferred to projects in other departments of the company, where they will support machine learning and other projects across Apple. However, we continue to believe that there are huge opportunities for autonomous systems and that Apple has the unique ability to contribute. This is the most ambitious machine learning project ever. \" As mentioned earlier, Apple's autonomous driving plan sprouted as early as 2014. It is said that at that time, more than 1,000 employees were working on the project at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, San Francisco. However, as internal strife, leadership issues and other privacy issues affected the project, Apple laid off employees and fired hundreds of employees on the project.</p><p>A month later, the safety report of Apple's self-driving car was pointed out to be \"too simple\", with only seven short pages, and even fewer key safety-related contents.</p><p>Basically, it can be said that since the establishment of Apple's autonomous driving project, as long as it appears on news pages, it is basically not good news.</p><p>In the second half of 2019, the \"Titan Project\" finally had pretty good news: In June, Apple officially acquired Drive.ai, a \"mom-and-pop store\" co-founded by AI big coffee Andrew Ng and his wife. Inject fresh vitality into its own self-driving project.</p><p>Then, there was another long period of silence, and the progress of Apple's autonomous driving disappeared from the public's view again. Until January 2020, new progress appeared.</p><p>On January 29, local time, some media discovered that Apple published a paper on Arxiv.org. The paper pointed out that Apple scientist Yichuan Charlie Tang and his team are using a method to simulate the driving scene of vehicles merging and gradually create a more diverse simulation environment.</p><p>Tang and co-authors write: \"We demonstrate this technology in a challenging multi-agent lane change simulation. In this simulation environment, experimental targets must interact and negotiate with other vehicles to successfully merge on the road. Although the environment starts with simple road conditions, as the training progresses, we increase its complexity by repeatedly adding increasingly diverse factors to the agent'zoo '. Qualitatively, we found that through self-training, experimental targets automatically learn interesting behaviors, such as defensive driving, overtaking, giving way, and using signal lights to communicate with other agents. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01883ebc73afc1f71d865339da65ecbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Lane change simulation schematic diagram</p><p>As explained by the researchers, lane-changing behavior is considered a complex operation in the field of autonomous driving because it requires the driving system to accurately predict intentions and respond accordingly. Traditional solutions make assumptions and rely on manually coded behaviors, but these flexibility-limited and fragile strategies do not handle edge cases well, such as several vehicles trying to merge into the same lane at the same time. In contrast to rule-based systems, reinforcement learning directly learns strategies through repeated interactions with the environment.</p><p>Although it is still being tested in a simulated environment, Apple's autonomous driving has finally shown some decent progress.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, many executives of Apple's autonomous driving have resigned one after another. In February, Benjamin Lyon, a veteran member of Apple's self-driving, officially left. It is reported that Benjamin Lyon is one of the founders of Apple's self-driving car project and served as Apple's senior director of self-driving hardware.</p><p>During his 21 years at Apple, he worked on the research and development of Touch ID, a fingerprint recognition technology for iPhone, and then he joined Apple's self-driving car team. In the same month, Jaime Waydo, who is in charge of the self-driving car safety and supervision team, left Apple, and the engineer was praised by Apple CEO Cook as \"the mother of all artificial intelligence projects.\" In the following months, three more executives left one after another.</p><p>According to relevant sources, Apple's chip division, led by Johny Srouji, is also involved in automotive research and development. Since 2018, Srouji's team has been developing customized Arm-based chips, mainly focusing on machine learning processing to drive the underlying self-driving car system.</p><p>Since 2017, Apple has been testing autonomous technology on public roads. Cars tested by companies averaged 118 miles in 2019 until human safety drivers needed control. According to the California Department of Vehicles, this figure is an increase from 1 mile per hand-dropped drive in 2018. According to the California Department of Vehicles, the company owns 66 vehicles. This is an increase from 55 licensed vehicles as of mid-2018.</p><p><b>In the excitement of Robotaxi, there is no Apple</b></p><p>In the past two years, Robotaxi has been in the limelight in the field of autonomous driving, and many domestic and foreign companies have deployed in this field.</p><p>On September 26, 2019, Baidu launched Robotaxi service to the public in Changsha City, Hunan Province; On August 5, 2019, Didi Chuxing announced that its autonomous driving department had been upgraded to an independent company, focusing on autonomous driving research and development, product applications and related business development. It is understood that RoboTaxi is also one of the main businesses developed by Didi Autonomous Driving Company. As a domestic travel service provider, Didi seems to have innate advantages in this field; Pony.ai is the first company to launch Robotaxi services in both China and the United States. In addition to Beijing, it currently provides services to the public in Guangzhou, China, Irvine, California, and Fremont.</p><p>In Beijing, the service scope of Pony.ai Robotaxi will cover the core operating area of 150 square kilometers in Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, including about 150 sites. The operating hours will last from 8:30 am to 22:30 pm, including morning and evening peak hours and night time.</p><p>From 2017 to 2018, BMW, Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and other car manufacturers joined forces with Intel, Nvidia, Google, Lyft and other companies to enter RoboTaxi, and this is also the hottest period for autonomous driving.</p><p>In April 2019, Tesla founder Elon Musk publicly stated that the Tesla RoboTaxi network will be established in 2020. As part of the Tesla network's \"RoboTaxi\" service, owners of operating vehicles can earn up to $30,000 in revenue every year. Musk has set his sights on the autonomous mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) market. In a conference call after Tesla announced its rate hike, Musk pointed out that RoboTaxi could eventually push the company to a market value of $500 billion.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that, just like the promise of \"realizing fully autonomous driving by 2020\", most companies set 2025 as the target year for fully realizing RoboTaxi. From this point of view, it is somewhat difficult for Apple to catch up with this wave.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DiAEY2Hho3JCnzymaNuzZA\">AI前线</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9c6038c922a501076310ac125cdbb5","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DiAEY2Hho3JCnzymaNuzZA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132950320","content_text":"七年过去了，苹果汽车还是个 PPT 产品吗？\n\n屡被拒绝的苹果\n近日，根据路透社报道，苹果公司正在与宁德时代、比亚迪就电动汽车项目的电池供应进行初步洽谈。\n更早之前，苹果被传出与现代、日产等传统车企洽谈合作，这场谈判成为了业界的关注焦点，更有传言称苹果实际上已经与现代的子公司签署了相关协议，但可惜最终没有什么结果。\n据华尔街见闻报道，早在 2018 年 5 月，苹果就曾与德国汽车巨头大众汽车进行谈判，以生产基于 T6 Transporter 商用车的自动员工穿梭车——该计划将导致为大众市场开发苹果汽车。但在一系列测试崩溃和员工泄密之后，两家公司之间的合作关系被扼杀了，关于此事的披露几乎没有。\n自 2014 年推出泰坦计划，明确要进军汽车行业之后，苹果公司在推进自身计划和寻求合作伙伴上屡屡受挫，导致七年过去了，外界还没有看到太多实质性的进展。苹果分析师郭明錤最近声称，鉴于谈判陷入僵局，Apple Car 可能要到 2028 年或更晚才会推出，因此预计要等很长时间才能在路上看到它。\n据知情人士透露，苹果公司拥有一个小团队，专门研发一款新车，希望最终能和特斯拉竞争，但是开发工作还处在初期。苹果要推出一款自动驾驶的电动车至少需要 5 年的时间，因为研发工作还处于初期阶段。结合上述分析师的预测，要等到这款苹果汽车着实还需要一些时日。\n裁员、高管频繁离职\n苹果造车怎么这么难？\n自苹果于 2014 年推出“泰坦（Project Titan）”自动驾驶计划之后很长一段时间里都没有什么太大的动静。2018 年，让这个项目进展曝光的竟然是一起泄密事件，而相关文件显示，当时苹果自动驾驶项目拥有超过 5000 名员工，其中约 2700 人为核心员工。\n到了 2019 年 1 月，“泰坦计划”又被传出裁员的消息，有 200 余名员工在此次事件中被裁。\n不同以往的是，苹果公司的一名发言人承认了裁员的消息，并表示公司仍然相信自动驾驶领域存在机会：\n\n “在苹果，我们拥有一个非常有才华的团队，他们致力于自主系统和相关技术。2019 年，他们将把工作重点放在几个关键领域，一些团队成员将被转移到公司其他部门的项目，在那里，他们将支持整个苹果的机器学习和其他项目。但是，我们仍然相信，自主系统存在巨大的机遇，苹果有独特的能力做出贡献，这是有史以来最雄心勃勃的机器学习项目。”\n\n前文也已提到，苹果的自动驾驶计划早在 2014 年就萌芽了，据称当时有 1000 多名员工在位于旧金山库比蒂诺的苹果总部从事项目工作。但是由于内部争斗、领导问题和其他隐私问题影响到了项目，导致苹果裁员，解聘了数百名该项目员工。\n一个月后，苹果自动驾驶汽车的安全报告又被指出“过于简单”，内容仅有短短的 7 页，而安全相关的重点内容则更是少之又少。\n基本上可以说，苹果自动驾驶项目成立以来，只要出现在新闻页面上，基本都不是什么好消息。\n到了 2019 年的下半年，“泰坦计划”终于有了还算不错的消息传来：6 月，苹果正式收购了 AI 大咖吴恩达及其妻子共同创立的“夫妻店”——Drive.ai，为自己的自动驾驶项目注入新鲜活力。\n随后，又是一段漫长的沉寂期，苹果自动驾驶的进展就这样再次消失在了公众的视野里，直到 2020 年 1 月，新的进展出现了。\n当地时间 1 月 29 日，有媒体发现：苹果在 Arxiv.org 上发表了一篇论文，论文指出，苹果科学家 Yichuan Charlie Tang 及其团队正在使用一种方法，模拟车辆并道的驾驶场景，并逐步创建更加多样化的模拟环境。\nTang 及其合著者写道：“我们在具有挑战性的多智能体变道模拟中演示了这项技术。在该模拟环境中，实验目标必须与其他车辆进行交互和协商才能成功地在道路上进行合并。虽然环境从简单路况开始，但随着训练的深入，我们通过向智能体’zoo’反复添加越来越多样化的因素来增加其复杂性。定性地说，我们发现通过自我训练，实验目标会自动学习有趣的行为，例如防御性驾驶、超车、让道以及使用信号灯与其他智能体交流。”\n\n变道模拟示意图\n正如研究人员所解释的那样，在自动驾驶领域，变道行为被认为是复杂的操作，因为这需要驾驶系统准确地预测意图并做出相应的反应。传统的解决方案会做出假设并依赖于手动编码的行为，但是这些灵活度受限且脆弱的策略无法很好地处理边缘情况，例如几辆车试图同时合并到同一车道。与基于规则的系统相比，强化学习通过与环境的反复交互来直接学习策略。\n虽然还在模拟环境中测试，但是苹果自动驾驶总算是展示了一些像样的进展。\n今年以来，苹果自动驾驶的多位高管又相继离职。2 月份，苹果自动驾驶元老成员 Benjamin Lyon 正式离开。据悉，Benjamin Lyon 是苹果自动驾驶汽车项目的创始人之一，曾担任苹果自动驾驶硬件高级总监。\n在苹果公司工作的 21 年中，他从事了 iPhone 的指纹识别技术 Touch ID 研发工作，此后他加入苹果自动驾驶汽车团队。同月，负责自动驾驶汽车安全和监管团队的 Jaime Waydo 离开苹果公司，而这位工程师被苹果 CEO 库克赞赏为“所有人工智能项目之母”。随后几个月内，陆续又出走了 3 位高管。\n据有关人士透露，苹果公司由 Johny Srouji 领导的芯片部门也参与了汽车研发。从 2018 年开始， Srouji 的团队就一直在开发基于 Arm 的定制化芯片，主要集中于机器学习处理，用于驱动底层自动驾驶汽车系统。\n从 2017 年开始，苹果就开始在公共道路上测试自主技术。公司测试的汽车在 2019 年平均行驶 118 英里，直到人类安全驾驶员需要控制为止。据加利福尼亚车辆管理局称，这一数字比 2018 年每次撒手驾驶的里程 1 英里有所增加。据加利福尼亚车辆管理局统计，公司拥有 66 辆汽车。这比截至 2018 年年中的 55 辆许可车辆有所增加。\nRobotaxi 的热闹中，没有苹果的身影\n近两年，Robotaxi 在自动驾驶领域风头正盛，国内外众多企业在此上布局。\n2019 年 9 月 26 日，百度在湖南省长沙市向公众推出 Robotaxi 服务；2019 年 8 月 5 日，滴滴出行宣布旗下自动驾驶部门升级为独立公司, 专注于自动驾驶研发、产品应用及相关业务拓展。据了解，RoboTaxi 也是滴滴自动驾驶公司主要发展的业务之一，作为国内出行服务提供商，滴滴在该领域似乎有着先天的优势；小马智行则是首家在中美均推出 Robotaxi 服务的公司，除北京外，目前在中国广州、美国加州尔湾以及弗里蒙特市向公众提供服务。\n在北京，小马智行 Robotaxi 服务范围将覆盖北京经济技术开发区 150 平方公里核心运营区域，包括约 150 个站点，运营时间从早 8:30 持续至晚 22:30，囊括早、晚高峰以及夜间时段。\n2017 至 2018 年，宝马、大众、通用、福特等车厂联合英特尔、英伟达、谷歌、Lyft 等等公司纷纷入局 RoboTaxi，而这也是自动驾驶最火热的一个时段。\n2019 年 4 月，特斯拉创始人埃隆·马斯克更是公开表示：要在 2020 年建立特斯拉 RoboTaxi 网络，作为特斯拉网络“RoboTaxi”服务的一部分，运营车辆的车主每年可以获得高达 30,000 美元的收入。马斯克已将目光投向 自主移动即服务（MaaS） 市场，在特斯拉宣布加息后的一次电话会议中，马斯克指出：RoboTaxi 最终可能将公司推向 市值 5000 亿美元。\n值得一提的是：就像“2020 年实现全面自动驾驶”的承诺一样，大部分公司把 2025 年设置为全面实现 RoboTaxi 的目标年限。如此看来，苹果要赶上这波浪潮是有些难度了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187222291,"gmtCreate":1623756192113,"gmtModify":1703818231257,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187222291","repostId":"1116108105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184149199,"gmtCreate":1623692112911,"gmtModify":1704208902191,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184149199","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to signal when it may begin to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to signal when it may begin to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186889979,"gmtCreate":1623484520191,"gmtModify":1704204916987,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186889979","repostId":"2142197209","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142197209","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623423107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142197209?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Michigan consumer confidence climbed in June from the previous month, inflation expectations unexpectedly fell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142197209","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周五公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数6月初值显示，美国消费者情绪在6月初升幅超过预期。\n根据数据，6月的消费者信心指数初值为86.4，相较5月终值82.9出现明显上升，也高于84.4的市场预期。此外，同","content":"<p>The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on Friday in early June showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in early June.</p><p>According to the data, the initial value of the consumer confidence index in June was 86.4, which was significantly higher than the final value of 82.9 in May and higher than the market expectation of 84.4. In addition, the current economic conditions index released at the same time rose slightly to 90.6 from 89.4 in May, while the consumer expectation index rose to 83.8 from 78.8 in May.</p><p>In terms of inflation, this survey shows that consumers' expectations for inflation in the coming year are 4.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from 4.6% last month; The expected value of inflation in the next five years is 2.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from 3.0% last month.</p><p>However, it should be noted that one-year and five-year inflation expectations are still at the highest level since 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f775be5dbf6b1ae3d012b4636fb0c2\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a reference, the upward trend of the break-even inflation rate, which measures the inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market, since the beginning of the year has temporarily ended in mid-May. The current 5-year period is roughly in the 2.4 ~ 2.5% range, while the 10-year period is in the 2.3 ~ 2.4% range.</p><p>Richard Curtin, head of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey, pointed out when releasing the data that the U.S. economy is expected to see stronger growth, and the number of consumers who expect the unemployment rate to record a net decrease has hit a record high. But while inflation expectations declined in early June, rising inflation rates remain top of mind for consumers.</p><p>Richard Curtin also said that in this survey, the negative feedback of consumers surveyed on the prices of housing, automobiles and household durable goods was the worst level since the record low in November 1974.</p><p>Financial blog ZeroHedge pointed out in the analysis after the data was released that the increase in consumer confidence index this month far exceeded market expectations, because the sharp rise in consumer expectation index provided impetus.</p><p>Bloomberg pointed out in an article after the data was released that with the lifting of travel restrictions, the warming of temperatures and the weakening of health problems, consumers' sentiment is more optimistic. At the same time, policymakers, as well as investors, are paying close attention to inflation expectations as the economy accelerates.</p><p>ben'ci</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Michigan consumer confidence climbed in June from the previous month, inflation expectations unexpectedly fell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Michigan consumer confidence climbed in June from the previous month, inflation expectations unexpectedly fell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 22:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on Friday in early June showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in early June.</p><p>According to the data, the initial value of the consumer confidence index in June was 86.4, which was significantly higher than the final value of 82.9 in May and higher than the market expectation of 84.4. In addition, the current economic conditions index released at the same time rose slightly to 90.6 from 89.4 in May, while the consumer expectation index rose to 83.8 from 78.8 in May.</p><p>In terms of inflation, this survey shows that consumers' expectations for inflation in the coming year are 4.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from 4.6% last month; The expected value of inflation in the next five years is 2.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from 3.0% last month.</p><p>However, it should be noted that one-year and five-year inflation expectations are still at the highest level since 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f775be5dbf6b1ae3d012b4636fb0c2\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a reference, the upward trend of the break-even inflation rate, which measures the inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market, since the beginning of the year has temporarily ended in mid-May. The current 5-year period is roughly in the 2.4 ~ 2.5% range, while the 10-year period is in the 2.3 ~ 2.4% range.</p><p>Richard Curtin, head of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey, pointed out when releasing the data that the U.S. economy is expected to see stronger growth, and the number of consumers who expect the unemployment rate to record a net decrease has hit a record high. But while inflation expectations declined in early June, rising inflation rates remain top of mind for consumers.</p><p>Richard Curtin also said that in this survey, the negative feedback of consumers surveyed on the prices of housing, automobiles and household durable goods was the worst level since the record low in November 1974.</p><p>Financial blog ZeroHedge pointed out in the analysis after the data was released that the increase in consumer confidence index this month far exceeded market expectations, because the sharp rise in consumer expectation index provided impetus.</p><p>Bloomberg pointed out in an article after the data was released that with the lifting of travel restrictions, the warming of temperatures and the weakening of health problems, consumers' sentiment is more optimistic. At the same time, policymakers, as well as investors, are paying close attention to inflation expectations as the economy accelerates.</p><p>ben'ci</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632805\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632805","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142197209","content_text":"周五公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数6月初值显示，美国消费者情绪在6月初升幅超过预期。\n根据数据，6月的消费者信心指数初值为86.4，相较5月终值82.9出现明显上升，也高于84.4的市场预期。此外，同时发布的经济现况指数从5月的89.4小升至90.6，而消费者预期指数则是从5月的78.8升至83.8。\n通胀方面，本次调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀的预期值为4.0%，较上月的4.6%下降了0.6个百分点；而对未来五年通胀的预期值为2.8%，较上月的3.0%下降了0.2个百分点。\n不过需要注意的是，一年及五年通胀预期目前仍然处于2011年以来的高位。\n\n作为参照，衡量美债市场对通胀预期的盈亏平衡通胀率年初以来的上行趋势已在5月中旬暂告终结，目前5年期大体位于2.4~2.5%区间，而10年期则位于2.3~2.4%区间。\n密歇根大学消费者信心调查的负责人Richard Curtin在公布数据时指出，美国经济预期会出现更强增长，预计失业率将录得净降低的消费者人数创下历史新高。但是，尽管通胀预期在6月初有所下降，通胀率上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题。\nRichard Curtin同时还表示，本次调查中，受访消费者对住房、汽车、家庭耐用品价格的负面反馈是1974年11月历史新低以来最差水平。\n金融博客ZeroHedge在数据出炉之后的分析中指出，本月消费者信心指数的升幅远超市场预期，原因在于消费者预期指数的大幅上升提供了动力。\n而彭博在数据公布后的文章当中指出，随着旅行限制的取消，气温回暖以及健康问题的弱化，消费者的情绪更加乐观。与此同时，随着经济发展加速，政策制定者以及投资者都在密切关注通胀预期。\nben'ci","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186880890,"gmtCreate":1623484487710,"gmtModify":1704204916016,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186880890","repostId":"1105134625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105134625","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623140058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105134625?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 16:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The lunch break arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105134625","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","content":"<p>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14 for Queen's Birthday, and will be open as usual from Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, British stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural astronomical phenomena and evolved from worshipping dragons in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven stays of the black dragon soared into the middle of the south, and was in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Gan Gua said: \"The flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, a variety of folk customs are mixed into one, and the contents of festivals and customs are rich. Picking dragon boats and eating rice dumplings are the two major rituals and customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and have continued until now.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship the dragon ancestors and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping into Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also sayings to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors who chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragon in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and injected the fashion of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The lunch break arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The lunch break arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 16:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14 for Queen's Birthday, and will be open as usual from Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, British stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural astronomical phenomena and evolved from worshipping dragons in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven stays of the black dragon soared into the middle of the south, and was in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Gan Gua said: \"The flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, a variety of folk customs are mixed into one, and the contents of festivals and customs are rich. Picking dragon boats and eating rice dumplings are the two major rituals and customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and have continued until now.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship the dragon ancestors and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping into Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also sayings to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors who chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragon in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and injected the fashion of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105134625","content_text":"临近中国传统节日端午节假期，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。港股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。澳股：6月14日（周一）因 Queen's Birthday 休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。沪股通、深股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。港股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。背景介绍：端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。仲夏端午，苍龙七宿飞升于正南中天，处于全年最“正中”之位，即如《易经·乾卦》第五爻的爻辞曰：“飞龙在天”。其起源涵盖了古老星象文化、人文哲学等方面内容，蕴含着深邃丰厚的文化内涵，在传承发展中杂糅了多种民俗为一体，节俗内容丰富。扒龙舟与食粽是端午节的两大礼俗，这两大礼俗在中国自古传承，至今不辍。端午节，本是上古先民创立用于拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪的节日。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188695046,"gmtCreate":1623430899285,"gmtModify":1704203660616,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188695046","repostId":"1185815929","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185815929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623381455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185815929?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America \"slaps\" the Federal Reserve in the face: How can there be \"temporary\" inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185815929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐","content":"<p>The Fed really, as the market believes, can easily turn high inflation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic box closed? Bank of America disagrees: \"History shows that once inflation is higher, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession\". U.S. inflation has exploded again, but the market seems to be fearless, and U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds have all soared. Investors seem to have begun to believe the Fed's rhetoric: inflation is only temporarily higher.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chief economist Michelle Meyer said bluntly: We don't buy it!</p><p>In her opinion,<b>As signs of labor shortages and inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of both the Fed and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the groundwork for more sustained inflation in the future is beginning to be laid from this moment on.</b></p><p>Bank of America said that at a time when U.S. inflation hit consecutive new highs in April and May, instead of realizing the inflation risks implied by a range of indicators, the market has a long list of excuses to turn a blind eye to signs of inflation:</p><p>1. Labor shortages will disappear in the autumn, when unemployment benefits will be reduced, child care will be easier to find, and concerns about contracting Novel Coronavirus at work will also decrease; 2. The bottleneck of commodity production is caused by special shocks. As production picks up and demand shifts from goods to services, bottlenecks will gradually disappear; 3. As the impact of past supply disruptions subsides, labor shortages ease and commodity demand growth slows down, trade bottlenecks will also be alleviated; 4. The price increase is purely temporary, and it is aimed at specific industries. As supply picks up, the rally will also fade; 5. By definition, either aspect of price inflation is temporarily higher, because the output gap still exists, and the persistent price pressure requires the gap to disappear; 6. Salary increases mainly occur in lower-paid jobs. This is a good thing because it helps to close the income gap; 7. In recent years, the link between wage level and price inflation has weakened. We should still celebrate, not lament, the wage increase; 8. By definition, any aspect of wage growth is temporary, because the unemployment rate is still too high to produce sustained wage pressure; 9. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations index has soared, but this is an overreaction to the obvious rise in food and energy prices; When these two major prices go lower, inflation expectations also fade; 10. Historically, inflation expectations will only rise after actual inflation remains high for a period of time; The recent rise must have been a fluke; 11. The break-even inflation rate is only rising moderately. If there is a real problem, the bond market will tell us everything; 12. Ignoring those rough surveys on inflation expectations, the survey of professional economists still believes that in the long run, inflation will reach the Fed's target. Bank of America also pointed out that the most important point is that,<b>The market believes that \"don't worry about inflation being too high, because the Fed can do everything it can to rate hike to cool inflation.\"</b></p><p>In this regard, the financial blog Zero Hedge directly sarcastically said: The Federal Reserve has done a good job. It can not only use rate hike to cool inflation, but also make baby U.S. stocks collapse within 15 minutes.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the above views of the market are more or less reasonable. So, what is Bank of America worried about?</p><p>Meyer believes that it is unreasonable to regard all recent inflation problems as \"temporary.\" The most crucial point is,<b>These \"temporary\" pressures may last for several months and may become an inherent factor in the psychology of inflation.</b></p><p>She also said that considering that the U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities have shown in words and actions that they want the economy to overheat and inflation to rise in the next few years, the above possibility becomes very high.</p><p>Bank of America does not agree with the statement that \"the Federal Reserve can easily close the Pandora's box of high inflation\":</p><p>We have never had consistently high inflation in recent decades.<b>But history shows that once inflation is higher, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.</b>In addition, the Fed has promised that rate hike will come later than normal and will only rate hike if they believe higher inflation is embedded in the U.S. economy.</p><p>This means that the Fed's current policy strategy makes rate hike more and more difficult, but if something unexpected happens and the rate hike signal comes earlier than the Fed's current hint, then it will be too late for the market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America \"slaps\" the Federal Reserve in the face: How can there be \"temporary\" inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America \"slaps\" the Federal Reserve in the face: How can there be \"temporary\" inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 11:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Fed really, as the market believes, can easily turn high inflation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic box closed? Bank of America disagrees: \"History shows that once inflation is higher, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession\". U.S. inflation has exploded again, but the market seems to be fearless, and U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds have all soared. Investors seem to have begun to believe the Fed's rhetoric: inflation is only temporarily higher.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chief economist Michelle Meyer said bluntly: We don't buy it!</p><p>In her opinion,<b>As signs of labor shortages and inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of both the Fed and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the groundwork for more sustained inflation in the future is beginning to be laid from this moment on.</b></p><p>Bank of America said that at a time when U.S. inflation hit consecutive new highs in April and May, instead of realizing the inflation risks implied by a range of indicators, the market has a long list of excuses to turn a blind eye to signs of inflation:</p><p>1. Labor shortages will disappear in the autumn, when unemployment benefits will be reduced, child care will be easier to find, and concerns about contracting Novel Coronavirus at work will also decrease; 2. The bottleneck of commodity production is caused by special shocks. As production picks up and demand shifts from goods to services, bottlenecks will gradually disappear; 3. As the impact of past supply disruptions subsides, labor shortages ease and commodity demand growth slows down, trade bottlenecks will also be alleviated; 4. The price increase is purely temporary, and it is aimed at specific industries. As supply picks up, the rally will also fade; 5. By definition, either aspect of price inflation is temporarily higher, because the output gap still exists, and the persistent price pressure requires the gap to disappear; 6. Salary increases mainly occur in lower-paid jobs. This is a good thing because it helps to close the income gap; 7. In recent years, the link between wage level and price inflation has weakened. We should still celebrate, not lament, the wage increase; 8. By definition, any aspect of wage growth is temporary, because the unemployment rate is still too high to produce sustained wage pressure; 9. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations index has soared, but this is an overreaction to the obvious rise in food and energy prices; When these two major prices go lower, inflation expectations also fade; 10. Historically, inflation expectations will only rise after actual inflation remains high for a period of time; The recent rise must have been a fluke; 11. The break-even inflation rate is only rising moderately. If there is a real problem, the bond market will tell us everything; 12. Ignoring those rough surveys on inflation expectations, the survey of professional economists still believes that in the long run, inflation will reach the Fed's target. Bank of America also pointed out that the most important point is that,<b>The market believes that \"don't worry about inflation being too high, because the Fed can do everything it can to rate hike to cool inflation.\"</b></p><p>In this regard, the financial blog Zero Hedge directly sarcastically said: The Federal Reserve has done a good job. It can not only use rate hike to cool inflation, but also make baby U.S. stocks collapse within 15 minutes.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the above views of the market are more or less reasonable. So, what is Bank of America worried about?</p><p>Meyer believes that it is unreasonable to regard all recent inflation problems as \"temporary.\" The most crucial point is,<b>These \"temporary\" pressures may last for several months and may become an inherent factor in the psychology of inflation.</b></p><p>She also said that considering that the U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities have shown in words and actions that they want the economy to overheat and inflation to rise in the next few years, the above possibility becomes very high.</p><p>Bank of America does not agree with the statement that \"the Federal Reserve can easily close the Pandora's box of high inflation\":</p><p>We have never had consistently high inflation in recent decades.<b>But history shows that once inflation is higher, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.</b>In addition, the Fed has promised that rate hike will come later than normal and will only rate hike if they believe higher inflation is embedded in the U.S. economy.</p><p>This means that the Fed's current policy strategy makes rate hike more and more difficult, but if something unexpected happens and the rate hike signal comes earlier than the Fed's current hint, then it will be too late for the market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185815929","content_text":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞：通胀嘛，只是暂时走高而已。\n然而，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言：我们不买账！\n在她看来，随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服，未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。\n美国银行表示，在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际，市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险，反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口：\n\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失，届时失业福利将减少，儿童保育更好找，对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退；\n\n\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖，需求从商品转向服务，瓶颈就将逐渐消失；\n\n\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退，劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速，贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解；\n\n\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨，而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升，涨势也将消退；\n\n\n 5、从定义出发，价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高，因为产出缺口仍旧存在，而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失；\n\n\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事，因为这有助于缩小收入差距；\n\n\n 7、近年来，薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝，而非哀叹工资上涨；\n\n\n 8、从定义出发，薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长，因为失业率仍旧太高，无法产生持续的薪资压力；\n\n\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升，但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应；当这两大价格走低时，通胀预期也会消退；\n\n\n 10、从历史上看，只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后，通胀预期才会走高；最近的上涨一定是侥幸；\n\n\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升，如果真的存在问题，债市会告诉我们一切；\n\n\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查，对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为，长期来看，通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n\n美国银行还指出，最重要的一点在于，市场相信“不要担心通胀过高，因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息，以此来冷却通胀”。\n对此，金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道：美联储行得很，不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀，还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。\n不过值得注意的是，市场的上述观点，多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么，美国银行在担心什么？\nMeyer认为，若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”，这并不合情理。最关键的地方是，这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月，并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。\n她还称，考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明，他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高，上述可能性就变得非常之大。\n对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法，美国银行也并不认同：\n\n 近几十年来，我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n 但历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。\n\n此外，美联储已经承诺，加息将比常态情况下来得更晚，且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。\n这也就意味着，美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难，但如果有意外发生，加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早，那么对于市场而言，一切就已经太晚了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183414844,"gmtCreate":1623340597688,"gmtModify":1704201374508,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183414844","repostId":"1174161709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174161709","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623329027,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174161709?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 20:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Terrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174161709","media":"腾讯美股  ","summary":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型","content":"<p><i>The U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as mixed-income unemployment compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach, the new debt king, predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, it is the slow restart in the post-epidemic era, and on the other hand, it is the fiscal stimulus of the federal government. According to Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of Double Line Capital, the interaction of the two has caused \"serious distortions\" to the US economy.</p><p>The famous \"debt king\" pointed out in a webcast on Tuesday that at the national level, countless enterprises, large and small, are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to keep the company running and expand its operations. Although \"a large number of jobs are vacant, they can't be filled in time, all because the federal government is competing with private enterprises\". Double Line Capital manages more than $140 billion in investments. What Gundlach is referring to here is obviously too generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than 90-minute webcast, he also talked about his many other views on the economy in the post-pandemic era.</p><p><b>Inflation expectations</b></p><p>Gundlach said that although inflation is rising rapidly now, it may only be temporary. At present, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventory levels are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of this is obviously likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"</p><p>The producer price index (PPI), which measures the long-term changes in the sales prices of goods and services in the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rise will last. Gundlach predicted that even if the price will continue to rise, the rise rate of the index may slow down.</p><p><b>Distorted departments</b></p><p>\"What we're not really looking at right now are special areas of the economy, such as used cars,\" Gundlach analyzed. \"The price of these goods has almost doubled in the past year.\" He also recently found that the price of used trucks is now close to that of new trucks, and in fact they are almost out of stock across the United States. \"This situation is clearly unsustainable.\" Gundlach added that these high prices are clearly \"not enough to create a disinflationary trend.\"</p><p>Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gundlach pointed out that the residential inventory in the United States has now dropped to the only level seen in many years, and in some areas, there are no homes for sale. He said that in many places, the number of real estate brokers is even ten times that of the houses they sell. \"This is not good news for brokerage houses\".</p><p>Demand for residential construction and renovation materials also remained high, which directly led to the explosion of lumber prices, joining the army of skyrocketing prices of other commodities, but Gundlach believed that these troubles may have peaked.</p><p>Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates continue to remain low. \"Although the recovery in all fields of the economy is in progress, and it has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of everyone returning to the company office is very slow. Gundlach predicted that \"unless there is a recurrence of the epidemic,\" the change of going back to office will usher in a peak by the end of summer.</p><p>But even so, I'm afraid the business operation will not be the same as before. \"Many people have expressed the hope of working from home more days. Now that virtual technology is so developed, reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can actually improve efficiency because a lot of communication time is removed.\"</p><p><b>Overseas Stocks vs. USD</b></p><p>For many years, the performance of the U.S. stock market has been better than that of overseas stock markets. Recently, however, the gap between the two is narrowing. \"Non-U.S. stocks have started to keep pace with U.S. stocks and no longer let the latter outperform.\" Gundlach noted that if the dollar starts to weaken, the situation could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He has recently started investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,\" Gundlach added, adding that in the short term, he would be neutral on the dollar for the time being.</p><p>From a long-term perspective, the eventual decline of the US dollar exchange rate is an almost unchangeable trend. After all, the trade deficit and budget deficit of the United States have now \"doubled compared with the level we once thought was terrible\". After Americans get their stimulus checks from the government, many people use them to buy products, many of which are produced in Asia, which can only further widen the trade deficit.</p><p>\"Retail investors have suddenly emerged recently, and their strength is astonishing. In fact, it is also a distortion, and its root lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"</p><p><b>Unemployment Claims' Shock '</b></p><p>The number of weekly initial jobless claims has inevitably increased significantly during the pandemic, and this data has not yet returned to normal levels. Although the unemployment rate in various states has begun to normalize, it is completely \"delusional\" to truly normalize it. Gundlach said, this is because the federal stimulus benefits are still being distributed.</p><p>The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as the Mixed-Income Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.</p><p>This shock may reverse some of the current jaw-dropping momentum, such as the severe scarcity of homes and cars. Gundlach said that this may be \"the strongest basis for thinking that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon-but it also means that the economy may suffer a major reversal as a result\".</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Terrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTerrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>The U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as mixed-income unemployment compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach, the new debt king, predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, it is the slow restart in the post-epidemic era, and on the other hand, it is the fiscal stimulus of the federal government. According to Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of Double Line Capital, the interaction of the two has caused \"serious distortions\" to the US economy.</p><p>The famous \"debt king\" pointed out in a webcast on Tuesday that at the national level, countless enterprises, large and small, are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to keep the company running and expand its operations. Although \"a large number of jobs are vacant, they can't be filled in time, all because the federal government is competing with private enterprises\". Double Line Capital manages more than $140 billion in investments. What Gundlach is referring to here is obviously too generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than 90-minute webcast, he also talked about his many other views on the economy in the post-pandemic era.</p><p><b>Inflation expectations</b></p><p>Gundlach said that although inflation is rising rapidly now, it may only be temporary. At present, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventory levels are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of this is obviously likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"</p><p>The producer price index (PPI), which measures the long-term changes in the sales prices of goods and services in the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rise will last. Gundlach predicted that even if the price will continue to rise, the rise rate of the index may slow down.</p><p><b>Distorted departments</b></p><p>\"What we're not really looking at right now are special areas of the economy, such as used cars,\" Gundlach analyzed. \"The price of these goods has almost doubled in the past year.\" He also recently found that the price of used trucks is now close to that of new trucks, and in fact they are almost out of stock across the United States. \"This situation is clearly unsustainable.\" Gundlach added that these high prices are clearly \"not enough to create a disinflationary trend.\"</p><p>Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gundlach pointed out that the residential inventory in the United States has now dropped to the only level seen in many years, and in some areas, there are no homes for sale. He said that in many places, the number of real estate brokers is even ten times that of the houses they sell. \"This is not good news for brokerage houses\".</p><p>Demand for residential construction and renovation materials also remained high, which directly led to the explosion of lumber prices, joining the army of skyrocketing prices of other commodities, but Gundlach believed that these troubles may have peaked.</p><p>Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates continue to remain low. \"Although the recovery in all fields of the economy is in progress, and it has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of everyone returning to the company office is very slow. Gundlach predicted that \"unless there is a recurrence of the epidemic,\" the change of going back to office will usher in a peak by the end of summer.</p><p>But even so, I'm afraid the business operation will not be the same as before. \"Many people have expressed the hope of working from home more days. Now that virtual technology is so developed, reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can actually improve efficiency because a lot of communication time is removed.\"</p><p><b>Overseas Stocks vs. USD</b></p><p>For many years, the performance of the U.S. stock market has been better than that of overseas stock markets. Recently, however, the gap between the two is narrowing. \"Non-U.S. stocks have started to keep pace with U.S. stocks and no longer let the latter outperform.\" Gundlach noted that if the dollar starts to weaken, the situation could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He has recently started investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,\" Gundlach added, adding that in the short term, he would be neutral on the dollar for the time being.</p><p>From a long-term perspective, the eventual decline of the US dollar exchange rate is an almost unchangeable trend. After all, the trade deficit and budget deficit of the United States have now \"doubled compared with the level we once thought was terrible\". After Americans get their stimulus checks from the government, many people use them to buy products, many of which are produced in Asia, which can only further widen the trade deficit.</p><p>\"Retail investors have suddenly emerged recently, and their strength is astonishing. In fact, it is also a distortion, and its root lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"</p><p><b>Unemployment Claims' Shock '</b></p><p>The number of weekly initial jobless claims has inevitably increased significantly during the pandemic, and this data has not yet returned to normal levels. Although the unemployment rate in various states has begun to normalize, it is completely \"delusional\" to truly normalize it. Gundlach said, this is because the federal stimulus benefits are still being distributed.</p><p>The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as the Mixed-Income Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.</p><p>This shock may reverse some of the current jaw-dropping momentum, such as the severe scarcity of homes and cars. Gundlach said that this may be \"the strongest basis for thinking that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon-but it also means that the economy may suffer a major reversal as a result\".</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ\">腾讯美股  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174161709","content_text":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。新债王冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n一方面是后疫情时代的重启步履迟缓，一方面是联邦政府的财政刺激，在双线资本创始人冈拉克（JeffreyGundlach）看来，两者交相作用，已经使得美国经济受到“严重扭曲”。\n这位鼎鼎大名的“债王”在周二的网络广播当中指出，全美层面，无数大大小小的企业都发现，想要招募到足够公司运转下去和扩大经营的人手正变得极端困难。虽然“为数众多的岗位都空缺着，但是却无法及时得到填补，这都是因为联邦政府在同私人企业竞争的缘故”。双线资本旗下管理着超过1400亿美元投资，冈拉克这里所指的，显然是过于慷慨大度的失业救济补贴。在周二长达九十多分钟的网络广播当中，他还谈到了自己对后疫情时代经济的许多其他看法。\n通货膨胀预期\n冈拉克表示，虽然通货膨胀现在正在急速抬头，但是这真的可能只是暂时性的。目前，食品价格高企，制造业库存水平处在近二十年来的最低点。“这些显然都不可能对通货膨胀造成下行的压力。”\n度量全美商品和服务销售价格长期变化的生产者价格指数（PPI）也一直在上涨，但是没有人知道这涨势会持续多久。冈拉克预言说，即便价格还会继续走高，但是指数的上涨速度可能将会放缓。\n被扭曲的部门\n“我们现在并没有真正认真去研究的，其实是经济当中的一些特殊领域，比如二手汽车。”冈拉克分析道，“这些商品的价格在过去一年时间里几乎翻了一番。”他最近还发现，现在二手卡车的价格已经和新卡车相去无几，而且事实上几乎是在全美范围内断货了。“这种局面显然是不可持久的。”冈拉克补充说，这些高企的价格显然“不足以形成反通货膨胀趋势”。\n住宅库存也是经济当中被“高度扭曲”的一个部门。冈拉克指出，现在全美住宅库存已经跌到了多年以来仅见的水平，在一些地区，甚至已经找不到待售的住宅了。他说，在许多地方，房地产经纪商的数量甚至要十倍于他们销售的住宅，“这对于经纪行来说可不是什么好消息”。\n住宅建筑和翻修材料的需求也居高不下，直接导致木材价格大爆炸，加入了其他商品价格暴涨的大军，但是冈拉克认为，这些麻烦可能已经见顶了。\n办公房地产价格还在持续暴跌，入住率持续保持低水平。“虽然经济各个领域当中的复苏都在进行当中，而且还导致了这些通货膨胀压力的出现”，但是大家回公司办公的进程却很迟缓。冈拉克预计说，“除非疫情出现反复”，不然到夏季结束的时候，回去办公的变化就会迎来峰值。\n不过即便如此，企业经营恐怕也不会再像以前那样了。“许多人都表示，希望多一点在家办公的日子，现在虚拟技术已经如此发达，而且现实已经证明，在一些情况下，因为去除了大量沟通的时间，在家上班反而能够提高效率。”\n海外股票与美元\n此前的许多年时间当中，美国股市的表现一直都要好于海外股市。不过近期以来，两者之间的差距正在缩小。“非美股票已经开始与美国股票表现并驾齐驱，不再让后者专美于前。”冈拉克指出，如果美元汇率开始走低，局面就可能变得对海外股票更加有利。他近期已经职业生涯第一次开始投资海外股市。\n“有充分的迹象显示，中期到长期之内，美元将会趋向疲软。”冈拉克补充道，只是短期之内，他会暂时对美元持中立立场。\n长期角度看来，美元汇率最终走低已经是近乎不可改变的趋势，毕竟美国的贸易赤字和预算赤字现在已经“较之我们曾经以为很糟糕的水平又翻了一番”。美国人从政府拿到他们的刺激支票之后，很多人都将其用于购买产品了，而这些产品当中许多都是在亚洲生产的，而这只能让贸易赤字进一步扩大。\n“散户投资者近来异军突起，强势惊人，其实同样是一种扭曲，而其根源就在于来自政府的可任意支配收入。”\n失业救济“冲击”\n在疫情期间，每周首度申报失业救济人数不可避免地大幅增加，而这一数据至今尚未恢复正常水平。各州的失业率虽然已经开始趋向常态，但是要真正正常化完全是“妄想”，冈拉克说，这是因为联邦刺激福利还在持续发放。\n联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n这一冲击也许会扭转目前一些令人瞠目结舌的势头，比如住宅和汽车的严重稀缺。冈拉克说，这也许是“认为通货膨胀将只是暂时性现象的最有力根据——不过，这同时也意味着经济可能因此遭遇重大反转”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180252874,"gmtCreate":1623208083798,"gmtModify":1704198388668,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180252874","repostId":"2142293923","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142293923","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623187875,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142293923?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 05:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: IRS asks Congress to authorize access to crypto market data","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142293923","media":"新浪财经","summary":"Rettig指出，加密货币市场的价值现在超过2万亿美元。他表示，“大多数加密货币、虚拟货币的创设旨在远离监管雷达，国税局目前已向第三方发出传票，以获取有关加密货币用户的信息”。其表示，国税局正在积极参与民事和刑事执法，但也需要国会提供额外的工具和资源。美国和欧盟还将宣布建立旨在加强两地区半导体供应的伙伴关系。美国对外商品出口攀升至纪录最高。","content":"<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The U.S. Internal Revenue Service asked Congress to authorize access to encryption market data, Bitcoin and others fell in response</b><b>2. The United States and the European Union will pledge to end the $18 billion tariff war initiated by Trump</b><b>3. Fancy tax avoidance: The report says that the actual income tax rate of Bezos, Buffett and other wealthy people is much lower than that of ordinary people</b><b>4. Fed inflation indicator reformers warn of inflation expectations, saying policy changes are imperative</b><b>5. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April due to a surge in exports of goods and services</b><b>6. Oxford University researcher funded by Man Group claims that its AI can predict stock trends</b><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/34/w500h334/20210609/253f-krhvrxt0024272.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>IRS asks Congress to authorize access to crypto market data, Bitcoin and others fall in response</b></p><p>IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig said at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday that the IRS needs more power from Congress to regulate the cryptocurrency industry and require the industry to strengthen user reporting.</p><p>Rettig said, \"We are often challenged, and it will be crucial to get clear authorization from Congress to collect this information\".</p><p>The Biden administration has proposed requiring cryptocurrency brokers such as exchanges to report information about customers, including information about indirect foreign investors. In addition, businesses are required to file with the IRS when they receive crypto assets worth more than $10,000.</p><p>Rettig noted that the value of the cryptocurrency market is now over $2 trillion.</p><p>He said, \"Most cryptocurrencies and virtual currencies are created to stay away from the regulatory radar, and the IRS has currently issued subpoenas to third parties to obtain information about cryptocurrency users\". Rettig did not disclose the identity of specific individuals. It said the IRS is actively participating in civil and criminal enforcement, but it also needs additional tools and resources from Congress.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/61/w550h311/20210609/4207-krhvrxt0065471.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The US and EU will pledge to end Trump's $18 billion tariff war</b></p><p>It is reported that EU leaders and US President Biden will promise to end the trade war at the EU-US summit on June 15 and promise to cancel tariffs related to the steel and aluminum trade conflict before the end of the year.</p><p>According to the draft, Europe and the United States will promise to find a solution to aviation disputes before July 11th. The content of the draft may also be revised. The two sides had previously agreed to suspend aviation tariffs until July to promote the conclusion of a solution.</p><p>In addition, the draft shows that the two sides will also strive to cancel the tariffs imposed in the steel and aluminum trade dispute before December 1st.</p><p>The United States and the European Union will also announce a partnership aimed at strengthening semiconductor supply between the two regions. This will be part of the work of the Trade and Technology Committee, a platform for cooperation on digital issues between the EU and the United States, and the two sides will formally reach an agreement at this summit.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/51f4-krhvrxs9900794.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Fancy tax avoidance: Report says the real income tax rate of Bezos, Buffett and other wealthy people is much lower than that of ordinary people</b></p><p>A report released Tuesday showed that some of the world's richest people-Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Carl-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Icahn</a>Michael Bloomberg and George Soros-pay only a fraction of their increasing wealth in income taxes, and even pay zero taxes in some specific years.</p><p>Citing confidential data from thousands of wealthy people obtained from the IRS, ProPublica said that the worth of the 25 richest Americans increased by a total of $401 billion between 2014 and 2018, but these people only paid a total of $13.6 billion in federal income tax during these five years, \"equivalent to a true tax rate of only 3.4%.\"</p><p>In contrast, in recent years, the median annual household income in the United States has been about $70,000, the federal income tax rate has reached 14%, and the tax rate of the highest household income is as high as 37%.</p><p>ProPublica noted that unlike ordinary people, who earn most of their income from traditional wages, billionaires often benefit from \"tax avoidance strategies beyond the reach of ordinary people.\" Their wealth is usually based primarily on the appreciation of stocks and real estate, which are not considered taxable unless they are sold, the report notes.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/89/w533h356/20210609/52a2-krhvrxt0029367.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Fed inflation gauge reformers warn of inflation expectation levels, saying policy shift is imperative</b></p><p>Economists who have helped the Fed revise the way it assesses long-term inflation expectations said the current level of expectations means the Fed needs to start paving the way for tapering bond purchases.</p><p>When Brian Sack was the head of monetary and financial market analysis on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors nearly two decades ago, he and his colleagues advocated using forward-looking inflation expectations indicators to help guide policy. Sack, who now serves as a global economic director at hedge fund DE Shaw & Co., said that if the 5-year/5-year forward breakeven inflation rate rises further, it will be a problem for the Fed.</p><p>This indicator will filter out short-term noise affecting consumer prices. It reached a seven-year high of 2.55% last month, which means that from 2026 to 2030, the average annual increase of the price index targeted by the Federal Reserve is expected to exceed 2%. That said, in the eyes of investors, the Fed is actually on track to meet its average inflation target of 2%.</p><p>Sack said the gauge's rebound from the ultra-low levels at the COVID-19 pandemic's initial outbreak is favorable, but if it rises too much further, it could make it more difficult for the Fed to achieve its dual goals of price stability and full employment.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/41/w550h291/20210609/d41d-krhvrxt0017686.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April as exports of goods and services surged</b></p><p>The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April for the first time this year, as exports of goods and services rose while imports fell.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 8.2% to $68.9 billion in April, compared with market expectations for a deficit of $68.7 billion, while the trade deficit in March was revised upward to $75 billion.</p><p>U.S. exports rose to $205 billion in April, the highest level since January 2020, while imports fell to $273.9 billion.</p><p>The data showed that imports fell, after consumer demand during the COVID-19 pandemic pushed U.S. imports to new highs. At the same time, the overseas economy improved and began to drive demand for American products and services. U.S. foreign merchandise exports climbed to a record high.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/917c-krhvrxt0031254.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Oxford University researcher funded by Man Group claims its AI can predict stock movements</b></p><p>Oxford University researchers funded by Man Group say they created a machine learning program that can predict how stock prices will move-achieving an 80% success rate in about 30 seconds of live trading.</p><p>Artificial intelligence experts at the Oxford-Man Institute for Quantitative Finance use the principles of natural language processing to mine liquidity data in limit trading orders.</p><p>This is a potential improvement for fast money traders looking to step on the market, and the algorithm can figure out the direction of price change over 100 ticks (time-sharing cycles), equivalent to about 30 seconds to 2 minutes of trading time, depending on market conditions.</p><p>\"In multi-step prediction, we effectively build a model that is trained to predict over a smaller time frame,\" said Stefan Zohren, an associate professor at the institute and co-author of this study. \"But we can feed this information back to the model itself and roll forecasts to get longer-term forecasts.\"</p><p>The algorithm is still in beta. Anthony Ledford, chief scientist at Man AHL, said the algorithm is tempting for hedge fund managers, who often split large trade orders into multiple smaller trades.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: IRS asks Congress to authorize access to crypto market data</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: IRS asks Congress to authorize access to crypto market data\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 05:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The U.S. Internal Revenue Service asked Congress to authorize access to encryption market data, Bitcoin and others fell in response</b><b>2. The United States and the European Union will pledge to end the $18 billion tariff war initiated by Trump</b><b>3. Fancy tax avoidance: The report says that the actual income tax rate of Bezos, Buffett and other wealthy people is much lower than that of ordinary people</b><b>4. Fed inflation indicator reformers warn of inflation expectations, saying policy changes are imperative</b><b>5. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April due to a surge in exports of goods and services</b><b>6. Oxford University researcher funded by Man Group claims that its AI can predict stock trends</b><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/34/w500h334/20210609/253f-krhvrxt0024272.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>IRS asks Congress to authorize access to crypto market data, Bitcoin and others fall in response</b></p><p>IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig said at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday that the IRS needs more power from Congress to regulate the cryptocurrency industry and require the industry to strengthen user reporting.</p><p>Rettig said, \"We are often challenged, and it will be crucial to get clear authorization from Congress to collect this information\".</p><p>The Biden administration has proposed requiring cryptocurrency brokers such as exchanges to report information about customers, including information about indirect foreign investors. In addition, businesses are required to file with the IRS when they receive crypto assets worth more than $10,000.</p><p>Rettig noted that the value of the cryptocurrency market is now over $2 trillion.</p><p>He said, \"Most cryptocurrencies and virtual currencies are created to stay away from the regulatory radar, and the IRS has currently issued subpoenas to third parties to obtain information about cryptocurrency users\". Rettig did not disclose the identity of specific individuals. It said the IRS is actively participating in civil and criminal enforcement, but it also needs additional tools and resources from Congress.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/61/w550h311/20210609/4207-krhvrxt0065471.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The US and EU will pledge to end Trump's $18 billion tariff war</b></p><p>It is reported that EU leaders and US President Biden will promise to end the trade war at the EU-US summit on June 15 and promise to cancel tariffs related to the steel and aluminum trade conflict before the end of the year.</p><p>According to the draft, Europe and the United States will promise to find a solution to aviation disputes before July 11th. The content of the draft may also be revised. The two sides had previously agreed to suspend aviation tariffs until July to promote the conclusion of a solution.</p><p>In addition, the draft shows that the two sides will also strive to cancel the tariffs imposed in the steel and aluminum trade dispute before December 1st.</p><p>The United States and the European Union will also announce a partnership aimed at strengthening semiconductor supply between the two regions. This will be part of the work of the Trade and Technology Committee, a platform for cooperation on digital issues between the EU and the United States, and the two sides will formally reach an agreement at this summit.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/51f4-krhvrxs9900794.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Fancy tax avoidance: Report says the real income tax rate of Bezos, Buffett and other wealthy people is much lower than that of ordinary people</b></p><p>A report released Tuesday showed that some of the world's richest people-Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Carl-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Icahn</a>Michael Bloomberg and George Soros-pay only a fraction of their increasing wealth in income taxes, and even pay zero taxes in some specific years.</p><p>Citing confidential data from thousands of wealthy people obtained from the IRS, ProPublica said that the worth of the 25 richest Americans increased by a total of $401 billion between 2014 and 2018, but these people only paid a total of $13.6 billion in federal income tax during these five years, \"equivalent to a true tax rate of only 3.4%.\"</p><p>In contrast, in recent years, the median annual household income in the United States has been about $70,000, the federal income tax rate has reached 14%, and the tax rate of the highest household income is as high as 37%.</p><p>ProPublica noted that unlike ordinary people, who earn most of their income from traditional wages, billionaires often benefit from \"tax avoidance strategies beyond the reach of ordinary people.\" Their wealth is usually based primarily on the appreciation of stocks and real estate, which are not considered taxable unless they are sold, the report notes.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/89/w533h356/20210609/52a2-krhvrxt0029367.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Fed inflation gauge reformers warn of inflation expectation levels, saying policy shift is imperative</b></p><p>Economists who have helped the Fed revise the way it assesses long-term inflation expectations said the current level of expectations means the Fed needs to start paving the way for tapering bond purchases.</p><p>When Brian Sack was the head of monetary and financial market analysis on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors nearly two decades ago, he and his colleagues advocated using forward-looking inflation expectations indicators to help guide policy. Sack, who now serves as a global economic director at hedge fund DE Shaw & Co., said that if the 5-year/5-year forward breakeven inflation rate rises further, it will be a problem for the Fed.</p><p>This indicator will filter out short-term noise affecting consumer prices. It reached a seven-year high of 2.55% last month, which means that from 2026 to 2030, the average annual increase of the price index targeted by the Federal Reserve is expected to exceed 2%. That said, in the eyes of investors, the Fed is actually on track to meet its average inflation target of 2%.</p><p>Sack said the gauge's rebound from the ultra-low levels at the COVID-19 pandemic's initial outbreak is favorable, but if it rises too much further, it could make it more difficult for the Fed to achieve its dual goals of price stability and full employment.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/41/w550h291/20210609/d41d-krhvrxt0017686.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April as exports of goods and services surged</b></p><p>The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April for the first time this year, as exports of goods and services rose while imports fell.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 8.2% to $68.9 billion in April, compared with market expectations for a deficit of $68.7 billion, while the trade deficit in March was revised upward to $75 billion.</p><p>U.S. exports rose to $205 billion in April, the highest level since January 2020, while imports fell to $273.9 billion.</p><p>The data showed that imports fell, after consumer demand during the COVID-19 pandemic pushed U.S. imports to new highs. At the same time, the overseas economy improved and began to drive demand for American products and services. U.S. foreign merchandise exports climbed to a record high.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/917c-krhvrxt0031254.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Oxford University researcher funded by Man Group claims its AI can predict stock movements</b></p><p>Oxford University researchers funded by Man Group say they created a machine learning program that can predict how stock prices will move-achieving an 80% success rate in about 30 seconds of live trading.</p><p>Artificial intelligence experts at the Oxford-Man Institute for Quantitative Finance use the principles of natural language processing to mine liquidity data in limit trading orders.</p><p>This is a potential improvement for fast money traders looking to step on the market, and the algorithm can figure out the direction of price change over 100 ticks (time-sharing cycles), equivalent to about 30 seconds to 2 minutes of trading time, depending on market conditions.</p><p>\"In multi-step prediction, we effectively build a model that is trained to predict over a smaller time frame,\" said Stefan Zohren, an associate professor at the institute and co-author of this study. \"But we can feed this information back to the model itself and roll forecasts to get longer-term forecasts.\"</p><p>The algorithm is still in beta. Anthony Ledford, chief scientist at Man AHL, said the algorithm is tempting for hedge fund managers, who often split large trade orders into multiple smaller trades.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-09/doc-ikqcfnaz9938624.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-09/doc-ikqcfnaz9938624.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142293923","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美国国税局要求国会授权获取加密市场数据 比特币等应声下挫2、美国与欧盟将承诺结束特朗普发起的180亿美元关税战3、花式避税：报告称贝佐斯、巴菲特等巨富实际所得税率远低于普通民众4、美联储通胀指标改革者预警通胀预期水平 称政策转变势在必行5、美国4月份贸易逆差今年来首次收窄 因商品和服务出口额大增6、Man Group资助的牛津大学研究员声称其AI可以预测股票走势美国国税局要求国会授权获取加密市场数据 比特币等应声下挫美国国税局局长Charles Rettig周二在参议院财政委员会听证会上表示，国税局需要国会授予更多权力来监管加密货币行业，并要求该行业加强用户报告事宜。Rettig称，“我们经常受到挑战，如果能获得国会对收集这些信息的明确授权，将是至关重要的”。拜登政府提议要求交易所等加密货币经纪人报告客户的信息，包括间接外国投资者的信息。此外，还要求企业在收到价值超过10000美元的加密资产时对国税局申报。Rettig指出，加密货币市场的价值现在超过2万亿美元。他表示，“大多数加密货币、虚拟货币的创设旨在远离监管雷达，国税局目前已向第三方发出传票，以获取有关加密货币用户的信息”。Rettig未透露具体个人的身份。其表示，国税局正在积极参与民事和刑事执法，但也需要国会提供额外的工具和资源。美国与欧盟将承诺结束特朗普发起的180亿美元关税战据悉，欧盟领导人与美国总统拜登将在6月15日欧盟-美国峰会召开时承诺结束贸易战，并承诺年底前取消与钢铝贸易冲突相关的关税。根据草案，欧美将承诺在7月11日前找出航空业争端解决方案。草案内容还可能有修改。双方先前已同意暂停航空业关税到7月份，以促进解决方案的达成。另外草案显示，双方还将努力在12月1日前取消钢铝贸易争端中加征的关税。美国和欧盟还将宣布建立旨在加强两地区半导体供应的伙伴关系。这将是欧盟与美国的数字问题合作平台--贸易和技术委员会的部分工作内容，双方将在此次峰会上正式达成一致。花式避税：报告称贝佐斯、巴菲特等巨富实际所得税率远低于普通民众周二公布的一份报告显示，一些世界上最富有的人——杰夫-贝佐斯、埃隆-马斯克、沃伦-巴菲特、卡尔-伊坎、迈克尔-布隆伯格和乔治-索罗斯——缴纳的所得税仅占到他们不断增加的财富的一小部分，在某些特定年份纳税甚至为零。ProPublica援引从美国国税局获得的数千名富人的机密数据称，25位最富有的美国人的身价在2014年到2018年期间总共增加了4010亿美元，但这些人在这五年中总共只缴纳了136亿美元的联邦所得税，“相当于真实税率仅为3.4%”。相比之下，近年来美国家庭年收入的中位数约为70000美元，联邦所得税率达到14%，家庭收入最高一档的税率则高达37%。ProPublica指出，与大多数收入来自传统工资的普通民众不同，亿万富翁们往往受益于“普通人无法企及的避税策略”。报告指出，他们的财富通常主要基于股票和房地产的升值，除非出售这些资产，否则这些资产不被视为应纳税项。美联储通胀指标改革者预警通胀预期水平 称政策转变势在必行曾帮助美联储修改了长期通胀预期评估方式的经济学家表示，目前预期水平意味着美联储需要开始为缩减购债铺路。Brian Sack将近二十年前担任美联储理事会货币和金融市场分析主管的时候，与同事主张用前瞻性的通胀预期指标来帮助指引政策。现在担任对冲基金DE Shaw&Co．全球经济董事的Sack称，若5年/5年远期盈亏平衡通胀率进一步上升，对美联储而言将是个问题。这项指标会滤掉影响消费者价格的短期噪音，上月一度达到2.55%的七年高点，意味着在2026-2030年，被美联储作为目标的价格指数平均年涨幅料超过2%。也就是说，在投资者看来，美联储实际上正在实现2%的平均通胀目标。Sack表示，该指标从新冠疫情最初爆发时的超低水平反弹是有利的，但如果进一步上涨太多，就可能导致美联储更难实现物价稳定和充分就业的双重目标。美国4月份贸易逆差今年来首次收窄 因商品和服务出口额大增美国4月份的贸易逆差今年来首次收窄，因商品和服务出口额攀升而进口额下降。据美国商务部周二公布的数据，4月份美国商品和服务贸易逆差收窄8.2%，至689亿美元，市场预期为逆差687亿美元，而3月份贸易逆差上修至750亿美元。美国4月份出口额增长至2050亿美元，为2020年1月以来最高水平，而进口额下降至2739亿美元。数据显示进口回落，此前新冠疫情期间的消费者需求使美国进口迭创新高。同时，海外经济改善，开始推动对美国产品和服务的需求。美国对外商品出口攀升至纪录最高。Man Group资助的牛津大学研究员声称其AI可以预测股票走势Man Group资助的牛津大学研究员说，他们创建了一个机器学习程序，可以预测股价如何变动——在大约30秒的实况交易中取得80%的成功率。牛津-Man数量金融研究所的人工智能专家利用自然语言处理的原理，在限价交易指令中挖掘流动性数据。这对寻求市场踩点的快钱交易者来说是一个潜在的进步，该算法可以算出价格在100个tick（分时周期）内的变化方向，相当于大约30秒到2分钟的交易时间，具体取决于市场状况。“在多步预测中，我们有效地建立了一个模型，经过训练可以在较小时间范围内进行预测，”该研究所副教授、本项研究的共同作者Stefan Zohren说。“但我们可以将这些信息反馈给模型自身，滚动预测，以获得更长期的预测。”该算法仍然处于测试阶段。Man AHL的首席科学家Anthony Ledford表示，这个算法对对冲基金经理很有诱惑力，他们经常将大额交易指令分拆成多个较小的交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274383,"gmtCreate":1623147250942,"gmtModify":1704197044203,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274383","repostId":"1101949190","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101949190","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623147077,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101949190?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"White House: Must work with allies to secure supply of metals needed for electric vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101949190","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。","content":"<p>The White House said on Tuesday that due to environmental and other considerations, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also set up a task force to determine where minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed in the country. It's unclear what impact this will have on existing EV mineral projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major hurdle to Biden's electric vehicle rollout plan, as domestic mining sites face wide regulatory thresholds and environmentalists' opposition.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>White House: Must work with allies to secure supply of metals needed for electric vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhite House: Must work with allies to secure supply of metals needed for electric vehicles\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The White House said on Tuesday that due to environmental and other considerations, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also set up a task force to determine where minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed in the country. It's unclear what impact this will have on existing EV mineral projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major hurdle to Biden's electric vehicle rollout plan, as domestic mining sites face wide regulatory thresholds and environmentalists' opposition.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11fb5ef0b1cb032e12ea701b85e5650d","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","F":"福特汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101949190","content_text":"美国白宫周二表示，出于环保和其他因素考虑，美国必须与盟友合作，以确保电动汽车电池所需的矿产供应，并在国内进行加工。拜登政府还将成立一个工作小组，确定用于电动汽车电池和其他技术的矿物可以在国内哪些地方生产和加工。目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。\n获得足够的铜、锂和其他原材料来生产电动汽车电池，是拜登电动汽车推广计划的一个主要障碍，因为国内矿场面临着广泛的监管门槛和环保人士反对。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274078,"gmtCreate":1623147230794,"gmtModify":1704197044687,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274078","repostId":"1179000628","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179000628","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623144281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179000628?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179000628","media":"智通财经","summary":"2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。","content":"<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1179000628","content_text":"作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在2020年第一季度和第二季度实现了正收益和收入增长，即科技、保健以及公用事业行业。\n下图FactSet(FDS)显示了2021年第二季度预期的创纪录结果，这是自2009年第四季度以来最好的一次。\n加税——美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大。\n中信证券表示，若资本利得税若上调至39.6%，预计将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转。\n3季度或成为美股集中爆发点\n虽然市场对今年标普500盈利增速的一致预期已从4月中旬的27%上调至当前的34%，但鉴于目前标普指数动态估值仍处于22倍左右的高位。在无新的催化因素下，美股大市进一步上行的空间有限。\n相反，各类风险却在逐步加剧。若美联储于8月底明确释放削减购债的信号，且民主党于9月底前如期通过加税法案，则3季度下旬或是美股风险集中爆发的时间点。\n而如果资本利得税改的起始有效日最终确定为2022年1月1日，则“散户加杠杆”资金的大概率流出可能会在4季度对美股的表现造成负面影响。\n能源股仍具备吸引力\n在美国股市今年以来的交易中，能源股是表现最好的一个板块，但要弥补多年以来的大幅下跌，这个板块还有很大的上行空间。\n如拉长时间轴来看，能源生产商的股价尚未恢复到2014年夏季开始的油价大跌之前的水平。\n\n如埃克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)正在推动能源行业每股收益增长的上调。\n目前能源占标普500指数市值的比例仍然只有3%。这一比例在2014年8月至9月达到14%-15%的峰值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112844989,"gmtCreate":1622862810641,"gmtModify":1704192650542,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112844989","repostId":"1177749357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177749357","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622862513,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177749357?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple employees object to returning to office work in internal letters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177749357","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，苹果公司的员工正在反对一项新政策，该政策要求他们从9月初开始，每周三天返回办公室。据媒体获得的一封内部信件显示，苹果员工们表示，他们希望采用一种更加灵活的方式，满足那些希望可以远程办公的员工们的","content":"<p>Recently, Apple employees are opposing a new policy that requires them to return to the office three days a week starting in early September. According to an internal letter obtained by the media, Apple employees said they hoped to adopt a more flexible way to meet the needs of those employees who wanted to work remotely. \"If we lose some of the inclusive principles that accompany flexible working policies, then many of us will feel that we have to choose between family, happiness and working with all our strength to think about whether we want to be an Apple member.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple employees object to returning to office work in internal letters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple employees object to returning to office work in internal letters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-05 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Apple employees are opposing a new policy that requires them to return to the office three days a week starting in early September. According to an internal letter obtained by the media, Apple employees said they hoped to adopt a more flexible way to meet the needs of those employees who wanted to work remotely. \"If we lose some of the inclusive principles that accompany flexible working policies, then many of us will feel that we have to choose between family, happiness and working with all our strength to think about whether we want to be an Apple member.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177749357","content_text":"近日，苹果公司的员工正在反对一项新政策，该政策要求他们从9月初开始，每周三天返回办公室。据媒体获得的一封内部信件显示，苹果员工们表示，他们希望采用一种更加灵活的方式，满足那些希望可以远程办公的员工们的需求。“如果再失去了与弹性工作政策相伴的一些包容性原则，那么我们中的许多人都会觉得，我们必须在家庭、幸福和全力以赴地工作之间做出选择，去思考是否要成为苹果的一员。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045103,"gmtCreate":1622830951302,"gmtModify":1704192106711,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112045103","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112042421,"gmtCreate":1622830881663,"gmtModify":1704192106226,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112042421","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118996573,"gmtCreate":1622711299592,"gmtModify":1704189436475,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118996573","repostId":"1193695784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193695784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622673021,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193695784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 06:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Angel of the Times will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $34,948.66","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193695784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月3日早间，时代天使发布公告，公司将于2021年6月3日-6月8日招股，公司拟全球发售1682.96万股，其中香港公开发售168.3万股，国际发售1514.66万股。发售价每股147港元-173港元","content":"<p>On the morning of June 3,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a>It was announced that the company will issue an IPO from June 3 to June 8, 2021. The company plans to sell 16.8296 million shares globally, including 1.683 million shares in Hong Kong and 15.1466 million shares internationally. The offer price is HK $147-HK $173 per share, 200 shares per lot, stock code 06699, is expected to be listed on June 16, 2021, and the sponsors are Goldman Sachs and CICC.</p><p><b>Tiger is expected to open the era at 11:30, Angel will play new [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/399b2b64367bd00b768416b0a8b96d6d\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 200 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $34,948.66.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are about HK $5,242,299.63.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663671a11e152d16cfd1ab50649fd2ee\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China. According to the CIC Consulting report, China's invisible orthodontic solution market is highly concentrated. Measured by the number of cases achieved in 2020, the total market share of the top two market players is 82.4%. According to the same information, the company's market share in the same year was approximately 41.0%.</p><p>During the performance record period, the number of dental surgeons served by the company increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019, and further increased to 19,900 in 2020. The number of completed cases of the company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019, and further increased to 137,600 in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19f74e48d67ffa613b4b079573ac981\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company mainly generates revenue by providing invisible orthodontic solution services and a smaller amount of other services. Financial information shows that in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the company's revenue was RMB 489 million (the same below), RMB 646 million and RMB 817 million respectively, and its net profit was RMB 58.2 million, RMB 67.7 million and RMB 151 million respectively. Yuan, net profit margins were 11.9%, 10.5% and 18.5% respectively, and the company's adjusted EBITDA (non-IFRS measurement) was 129 million yuan, 175 million yuan and 297 million yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e2bc33b5f923fc93eeed6faa8c3aa7\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK $160 per share (i.e. the mid-point of the indicative offer price range) and assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the company expects the net proceeds from the global offering to be approximately HK $2.513 billion.</p><p>Among them, about 39.9% is used to provide funds for the construction of Wuxi Chuangmei Base; About 18.3% is used to improve the company's R&D capabilities and provide funds for internal and cooperative R&D projects; Approximately 10.8% is used to develop flexible and scalable intelligent information technology systems to streamline and comprehensively digitize all aspects of company operations, and deploy data intermediary platforms; About 10.5% is used to expand the company's internal sales team and provide training courses for sales staff to improve sales effectiveness and efficiency.</p><p>In addition, approximately 9.6% is used to fund various marketing and branding activities to expand the user base and enhance the brand image; About 6.2% is used to optimize the company's medical services, by increasing the reach of offline medical services by adding seven regional demonstration centers, while regularly providing offline training for dentists on the application of the company's solutions, and cooperating with well-known domestic higher education institutions in China to cultivate medical talents through joint programs; And about 4.7% for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23394b5bdacff7733a7a94e8a316a4c8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Angel of the Times will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $34,948.66</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAngel of the Times will launch its IPO today, and the first-hand admission fee is about HK $34,948.66\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-03 06:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the morning of June 3,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a>It was announced that the company will issue an IPO from June 3 to June 8, 2021. The company plans to sell 16.8296 million shares globally, including 1.683 million shares in Hong Kong and 15.1466 million shares internationally. The offer price is HK $147-HK $173 per share, 200 shares per lot, stock code 06699, is expected to be listed on June 16, 2021, and the sponsors are Goldman Sachs and CICC.</p><p><b>Tiger is expected to open the era at 11:30, Angel will play new [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Subscription entrance</b></a><b>】</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/399b2b64367bd00b768416b0a8b96d6d\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 200 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $34,948.66.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are about HK $5,242,299.63.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663671a11e152d16cfd1ab50649fd2ee\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China. According to the CIC Consulting report, China's invisible orthodontic solution market is highly concentrated. Measured by the number of cases achieved in 2020, the total market share of the top two market players is 82.4%. According to the same information, the company's market share in the same year was approximately 41.0%.</p><p>During the performance record period, the number of dental surgeons served by the company increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019, and further increased to 19,900 in 2020. The number of completed cases of the company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019, and further increased to 137,600 in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19f74e48d67ffa613b4b079573ac981\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company mainly generates revenue by providing invisible orthodontic solution services and a smaller amount of other services. Financial information shows that in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the company's revenue was RMB 489 million (the same below), RMB 646 million and RMB 817 million respectively, and its net profit was RMB 58.2 million, RMB 67.7 million and RMB 151 million respectively. Yuan, net profit margins were 11.9%, 10.5% and 18.5% respectively, and the company's adjusted EBITDA (non-IFRS measurement) was 129 million yuan, 175 million yuan and 297 million yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e2bc33b5f923fc93eeed6faa8c3aa7\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK $160 per share (i.e. the mid-point of the indicative offer price range) and assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the company expects the net proceeds from the global offering to be approximately HK $2.513 billion.</p><p>Among them, about 39.9% is used to provide funds for the construction of Wuxi Chuangmei Base; About 18.3% is used to improve the company's R&D capabilities and provide funds for internal and cooperative R&D projects; Approximately 10.8% is used to develop flexible and scalable intelligent information technology systems to streamline and comprehensively digitize all aspects of company operations, and deploy data intermediary platforms; About 10.5% is used to expand the company's internal sales team and provide training courses for sales staff to improve sales effectiveness and efficiency.</p><p>In addition, approximately 9.6% is used to fund various marketing and branding activities to expand the user base and enhance the brand image; About 6.2% is used to optimize the company's medical services, by increasing the reach of offline medical services by adding seven regional demonstration centers, while regularly providing offline training for dentists on the application of the company's solutions, and cooperating with well-known domestic higher education institutions in China to cultivate medical talents through joint programs; And about 4.7% for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23394b5bdacff7733a7a94e8a316a4c8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"06699":"时代天使"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193695784","content_text":"6月3日早间，时代天使发布公告，公司将于2021年6月3日-6月8日招股，公司拟全球发售1682.96万股，其中香港公开发售168.3万股，国际发售1514.66万股。发售价每股147港元-173港元，每手200股，股票代码06699，预期于2021年6月16日上市，保荐人为高盛以及中金。老虎预计11:30开放时代天使打新【申购入口】申购阶梯：每手200股，入场费34948.66港元。乙组门槛为3万股，申购所需资金约5242299.63港元。公司是中国领先的隐形矫治解决方案提供商。根据灼识咨询报告，中国的隐形矫治解决方案市场高度集中，按2020年的达成案例计量，前两大市场参与者的市场占有率总计为82.4%。据同一份资料显示，公司于同年的市场份额为约41.0%。于业绩纪录期，公司服务的牙科医生人数由2018年的约1.15万名增至2019年的约1.58万名，并进一步增至2020年的1.99万名。公司的达成案例由2018年的约7.77万个增至2019年的约12.01万个，并进一步增至2020年的13.76万个。公司主要通过提供隐形矫治解决方案服务及较少量的其他服务产生收入。财务资料显示，于2018年、2019年及2020年，公司的收入分别为人民币4.89亿元(单位下同)、6.46亿元及8.17亿元，净利润分别为5820万元、6770万元及1.51亿元，净利润率分别为11.9%、10.5%及18.5%，及公司的经调整EBITDA(非国际财务报告准则计量)分别为1.29亿元、1.75亿元及2.97亿元。假设发售价为每股股份160港元(即指示性发售价范围的中位数)，并假设超额配股权未获行使，公司预计全球发售所得款项净额将约为25.13亿港元。其中，约39 .9%用于为无锡市创美基地的建设提供资金;约18 .3%用于提升公司的研发能力以及为内部和合作研发项目提供资金;约10 .8%用于开发灵活及可扩展的智能信息技术系统以精简及全面数字化公司运营的所有方面，并部署数据中间平台;约10 .5%用于扩大公司的内部销售团队，并为销售人员提供培训课程以提高销售效能和效率。此外，约9 .6%用于为各种营销及品牌推广活动提供资金，以扩大用户基础并提升品牌形象;约6 .2%用于优化公司的医学服务，方式为通过增设七处区域示范中心提高线下医学服务的触达，同时定期为牙科医生提供针对公司解决方案应用的线下培训，以及与中国国内知名高等教育机构合作，通过联合计划培养医学人才;及约4 .7%用作营运资本及其他一般企业用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06699":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135733870,"gmtCreate":1622182860690,"gmtModify":1704181043661,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135733870","repostId":"1116732227","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116732227","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"点拾是由行业最专业的投资研究人组成，专注于中国和海外新兴领域的互联网，消费，金融等行业研究。我们的研究，已经获得行业内最优秀的投资者认可，特别是消费，科技互联网和跨境比较是我们的优势。我们相信自己的努力一定能为您的投资助力。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"点拾投资","id":"67","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6"},"pubTimestamp":1622166610,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116732227?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-28 09:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Are US stocks about to peak? 16 Pictures to Tell You the Current State of the US Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116732227","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：2021年由于担心美国国债收益率拐头向上，导致全球流动性的边际收紧，A股市场在春节后出现了较大调整，特别是一些“核心资产”跌幅高达40-50%。有趣的是，美国这边却一直在创新高。每隔一段时间，总","content":"<p><b>Introduction:</b>In 2021, due to concerns that U.S. Treasury Bond yields will turn upward, leading to a marginal tightening of global liquidity, the A-share market has undergone major adjustments after the Spring Festival, especially some \"core assets\" have fallen by as much as 40-50%. Interestingly, the United States has been hitting new highs. Every once in a while, someone always stands up and looks short on US stocks. In the future, there must be someone with great luck who accurately sings empty at the highest point, but this timing cannot be replicated. Today, we share with you the in-depth report on U.S. stocks from JP Morgan Asset Management. We have selected more than a dozen representative pictures, which can help you better understand the current situation of U.S. stocks, hoping to help your investment!</p><p>Every year, some people in the U.S. stock market are about to peak. It is true that since 2009, the U.S. stock market has experienced various negative factors such as the European debt crisis, the U.S. Treasury Bond crisis, the government strike, Trump's coming to power, the presidential election farce, and the new crown epidemic. But the U.S. stock market has peaked? Not at all! As of the first quarter of 2021, the S&P 500 has steadily stood at 3,973 points, corresponding to a valuation of 21.9 times, a corresponding dividend rate of 1.5%, and a 10-year Treasury Bond yield of 1.7% during the same period. Compared with the largest bubble in history, it is not the highest level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9130f894c4e24523ef211414bd4ca240\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The valuation P/E indicator is the most commonly used and simplest and most effective indicator. Let's look at the chart below. The valuation level of the S&P 500 at the end of the first quarter of 2021 is indeed higher than the standard deviation of more than double the historical average, but it is still lower than the era of the dot-com stock bubble, while the Treasury Bond yield level during the same period has been significantly reduced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0640981001425ee9637e4715bcfa3d2e\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the expected dividend growth of the S&P 500 in 2021, we see that raw materials perform best, with an expected growth of 11.7%, followed by medical, optional consumption, technology information and required consumption. On the other hand, shareholder repurchases in the financial, technology information, and communication services sectors account for a relatively high proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0554790d1a8e760aa2b0dbce0e4b7851\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the style switch between growth and value in the United States. Last year, the growth style beat the value, and this year, the value style began to rise. In history, the best performance of growth style relative to value was the 2000 Internet stock bubble, and the best performance of value style relative to growth was the 2007 real estate bubble. From the correlation between industry and GDP, compulsory consumption, public utilities and optional consumption have the lowest correlation, while industry and finance have the highest correlation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c28126ec53e8373f083b851f218e1b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture is particularly important, and it is the performance of different styles this year. We have seen a clear rise in value style this year, outperforming growth style across the board (it is also understandable that the style has finally reverted to the mean). The best performer was the small-cap value style (and the worst performer over the past year), with a yield of 21.2%. The worst performer is the mid-cap growth style, with a yield of-0.6%. The best-performing large-cap growth style last year has only a positive return of 0.9% this year. From the previous low end of the market in March 2020, the best performer is the small-cap style, ranking among the top three in terms of value, growth, and balance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4e027768c690cbc915d5b9cf16b683\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture has reference significance for our long-term A-share investment selection track. In the distribution of the market capitalization of the S&P 500, technology, consumption and medical care account for the highest proportions. Among them, technology accounted for 26.6%, optional consumption accounted for 12.4%, mandatory consumption accounted for 6.1% (the sum of the two corresponds to a consumption weight of 18.5%), and medical care accounted for 13%. Energy, raw materials, public utilities, and real estate all account for less than 3%. In addition, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the best-performing industry was energy, with an increase of 30.9%, followed by finance, with an increase of 16%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3125250698012b6e00418e10f50e41b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I also like the picture below very much. In a mid-term national movement, you just have to go long. The strongest national fortune of the United States is not in the past 40 years, but the past 40 years have still experienced the two longest and largest bull markets in the history of the U.S. stock market. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has fallen only eight times, and only three times in which it has fallen by more than 10%. But in the middle of every year, when the index is lower than the level at the end of the previous year, in fact, as long as you do more every time the market falls, you can earn huge profits!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a7dfad81d273ecdde6c1b7baaf5558\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's continue to look at it. There have been too many black swan crises in the market in the past 30 years. It seems that the once-in-a-century crisis happens every few years. These crises are just small waves in the big wave in the long cycle, and they cannot stop the U.S. stock market at all. upward. Whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>Crisis, long-term capital collapse, dot-com stock bubble, 9/11 terrorist attacks, or COVID-19 pandemic. The biggest crisis was the global financial crisis in 2008, but if you don't do anything, the index will hit a new high in four years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093d868b252120aa23f8fe48e7938ed8\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The infection rate in COVID-19 pandemic has dropped sharply, and the number of vaccinated people in the United States has increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f2e6731faf11ec0769978161707c167\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the picture below, we can see that the soaring unemployment rate in the United States due to COVID-19 pandemic was temporary, and then fell sharply. Of course, the statistical caliber of the unemployment rate has also changed. In fact, last year, many people received more unemployment benefits than the previous wage level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b497b3ead6a14cf90f80bb39c4afc3\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Can the inflection point of Treasury Bond's yield, which domestic investors are most concerned about, really continue to turn upward? We found that we have to follow the level of inflation. If inflation really rises and stands firm, then Treasury Bond yields will turn upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1efdb3691276c12b7e17a02c9a6b7263\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The picture below is very interesting. Regarding when the global central banks will tighten, every time they predict that they will tighten next year, but in fact they are releasing more and more money. We saw a one-time release of liquidity in 2020, all of which exceeded the sum of previous years. 2020 is also the year with the largest number of interest rate cuts by global central banks since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5508f5004ced9d0408b4d03d403fd02\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The performance of global stock markets before and after the vaccine launch. We see that the Chinese stock market performed best before the vaccine launch, and began to fall after the vaccine launch, which was the worst performer. It can be understood that what affects China's stock market is the disturbance of liquidity factors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a81ab293dcd0218a03c000c6ded13\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below represents the change of global consumption power. In 2000, 39% of global consumption growth came from the United States and 18% from Europe. By 2019, China's consumption accounted for 22% of global consumption growth, second only to the United States. Today, China has accounted for 35% of the global luxury consumption, not to mention that the total sales volume of China's Double Eleven has surpassed that of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff131d695fddc42cee3b01c4fce1e09f\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The global carbon neutrality goal, the overall carbon emissions will drop significantly in the future, and the proportion of alternative energy will increase significantly, which may be one of the most important investment themes in the next decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f24f1edd89067a211ac2d0fcf49761\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The annualized rate of return of various assets from 1999 to 2019, the annualized rate of return of S&P 500 is 6.1%, the annualized rate of return of high-yield bonds is 7.9%, and the highest rate of return of REITs is 11.6% (but REITs in the United States are different from those in China), the annualized rate of return of individual investors chasing ups and downs is 2.5%...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86808f8e5b2326cfeb5c5ff5a0e864f9\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are US stocks about to peak? 16 Pictures to Tell You the Current State of the US Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre US stocks about to peak? 16 Pictures to Tell You the Current State of the US Economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-28 09:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Introduction:</b>In 2021, due to concerns that U.S. Treasury Bond yields will turn upward, leading to a marginal tightening of global liquidity, the A-share market has undergone major adjustments after the Spring Festival, especially some \"core assets\" have fallen by as much as 40-50%. Interestingly, the United States has been hitting new highs. Every once in a while, someone always stands up and looks short on US stocks. In the future, there must be someone with great luck who accurately sings empty at the highest point, but this timing cannot be replicated. Today, we share with you the in-depth report on U.S. stocks from JP Morgan Asset Management. We have selected more than a dozen representative pictures, which can help you better understand the current situation of U.S. stocks, hoping to help your investment!</p><p>Every year, some people in the U.S. stock market are about to peak. It is true that since 2009, the U.S. stock market has experienced various negative factors such as the European debt crisis, the U.S. Treasury Bond crisis, the government strike, Trump's coming to power, the presidential election farce, and the new crown epidemic. But the U.S. stock market has peaked? Not at all! As of the first quarter of 2021, the S&P 500 has steadily stood at 3,973 points, corresponding to a valuation of 21.9 times, a corresponding dividend rate of 1.5%, and a 10-year Treasury Bond yield of 1.7% during the same period. Compared with the largest bubble in history, it is not the highest level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9130f894c4e24523ef211414bd4ca240\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The valuation P/E indicator is the most commonly used and simplest and most effective indicator. Let's look at the chart below. The valuation level of the S&P 500 at the end of the first quarter of 2021 is indeed higher than the standard deviation of more than double the historical average, but it is still lower than the era of the dot-com stock bubble, while the Treasury Bond yield level during the same period has been significantly reduced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0640981001425ee9637e4715bcfa3d2e\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the expected dividend growth of the S&P 500 in 2021, we see that raw materials perform best, with an expected growth of 11.7%, followed by medical, optional consumption, technology information and required consumption. On the other hand, shareholder repurchases in the financial, technology information, and communication services sectors account for a relatively high proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0554790d1a8e760aa2b0dbce0e4b7851\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the style switch between growth and value in the United States. Last year, the growth style beat the value, and this year, the value style began to rise. In history, the best performance of growth style relative to value was the 2000 Internet stock bubble, and the best performance of value style relative to growth was the 2007 real estate bubble. From the correlation between industry and GDP, compulsory consumption, public utilities and optional consumption have the lowest correlation, while industry and finance have the highest correlation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c28126ec53e8373f083b851f218e1b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture is particularly important, and it is the performance of different styles this year. We have seen a clear rise in value style this year, outperforming growth style across the board (it is also understandable that the style has finally reverted to the mean). The best performer was the small-cap value style (and the worst performer over the past year), with a yield of 21.2%. The worst performer is the mid-cap growth style, with a yield of-0.6%. The best-performing large-cap growth style last year has only a positive return of 0.9% this year. From the previous low end of the market in March 2020, the best performer is the small-cap style, ranking among the top three in terms of value, growth, and balance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4e027768c690cbc915d5b9cf16b683\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture has reference significance for our long-term A-share investment selection track. In the distribution of the market capitalization of the S&P 500, technology, consumption and medical care account for the highest proportions. Among them, technology accounted for 26.6%, optional consumption accounted for 12.4%, mandatory consumption accounted for 6.1% (the sum of the two corresponds to a consumption weight of 18.5%), and medical care accounted for 13%. Energy, raw materials, public utilities, and real estate all account for less than 3%. In addition, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the best-performing industry was energy, with an increase of 30.9%, followed by finance, with an increase of 16%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3125250698012b6e00418e10f50e41b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I also like the picture below very much. In a mid-term national movement, you just have to go long. The strongest national fortune of the United States is not in the past 40 years, but the past 40 years have still experienced the two longest and largest bull markets in the history of the U.S. stock market. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has fallen only eight times, and only three times in which it has fallen by more than 10%. But in the middle of every year, when the index is lower than the level at the end of the previous year, in fact, as long as you do more every time the market falls, you can earn huge profits!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a7dfad81d273ecdde6c1b7baaf5558\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's continue to look at it. There have been too many black swan crises in the market in the past 30 years. It seems that the once-in-a-century crisis happens every few years. These crises are just small waves in the big wave in the long cycle, and they cannot stop the U.S. stock market at all. upward. Whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>Crisis, long-term capital collapse, dot-com stock bubble, 9/11 terrorist attacks, or COVID-19 pandemic. The biggest crisis was the global financial crisis in 2008, but if you don't do anything, the index will hit a new high in four years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093d868b252120aa23f8fe48e7938ed8\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The infection rate in COVID-19 pandemic has dropped sharply, and the number of vaccinated people in the United States has increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f2e6731faf11ec0769978161707c167\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the picture below, we can see that the soaring unemployment rate in the United States due to COVID-19 pandemic was temporary, and then fell sharply. Of course, the statistical caliber of the unemployment rate has also changed. In fact, last year, many people received more unemployment benefits than the previous wage level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b497b3ead6a14cf90f80bb39c4afc3\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Can the inflection point of Treasury Bond's yield, which domestic investors are most concerned about, really continue to turn upward? We found that we have to follow the level of inflation. If inflation really rises and stands firm, then Treasury Bond yields will turn upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1efdb3691276c12b7e17a02c9a6b7263\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The picture below is very interesting. Regarding when the global central banks will tighten, every time they predict that they will tighten next year, but in fact they are releasing more and more money. We saw a one-time release of liquidity in 2020, all of which exceeded the sum of previous years. 2020 is also the year with the largest number of interest rate cuts by global central banks since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5508f5004ced9d0408b4d03d403fd02\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The performance of global stock markets before and after the vaccine launch. We see that the Chinese stock market performed best before the vaccine launch, and began to fall after the vaccine launch, which was the worst performer. It can be understood that what affects China's stock market is the disturbance of liquidity factors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a81ab293dcd0218a03c000c6ded13\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below represents the change of global consumption power. In 2000, 39% of global consumption growth came from the United States and 18% from Europe. By 2019, China's consumption accounted for 22% of global consumption growth, second only to the United States. Today, China has accounted for 35% of the global luxury consumption, not to mention that the total sales volume of China's Double Eleven has surpassed that of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff131d695fddc42cee3b01c4fce1e09f\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The global carbon neutrality goal, the overall carbon emissions will drop significantly in the future, and the proportion of alternative energy will increase significantly, which may be one of the most important investment themes in the next decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f24f1edd89067a211ac2d0fcf49761\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The annualized rate of return of various assets from 1999 to 2019, the annualized rate of return of S&P 500 is 6.1%, the annualized rate of return of high-yield bonds is 7.9%, and the highest rate of return of REITs is 11.6% (but REITs in the United States are different from those in China), the annualized rate of return of individual investors chasing ups and downs is 2.5%...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86808f8e5b2326cfeb5c5ff5a0e864f9\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116732227","content_text":"导读：2021年由于担心美国国债收益率拐头向上，导致全球流动性的边际收紧，A股市场在春节后出现了较大调整，特别是一些“核心资产”跌幅高达40-50%。有趣的是，美国这边却一直在创新高。每隔一段时间，总是有人站出来看空美股。未来，一定有某个运气极好的人在最高点精准唱空，但是这种择时并不可复制。\n\n今天，我们和大家分享来自JP Morgan资产管理的美股深度报告，我们挑选了十几张比较有代表性的图片，从中能帮助大家更好的理解美股的现状，希望给大家的投资带来帮助！\n每年都有人美股要见顶了，确实过去2009年以来美股经历了欧债危机、美国国债危机、政府罢工、特朗普上台、总统选举闹剧、新冠疫情等等各种负面因素，但是美股见顶了吗？完全没有！截止2021年一季度，标普500稳稳站上3973点，对应估值21.9倍，对应分红率1.5%，同期10年期国债收益率水平1.7%。相比历史最大的泡沫看，都还不是最高水平。\n\n估值市盈率指标，是一个最常用也最简单有效的指标。我们看下面这张图，标普500在2021年一季度末的估值水平确实高于历史平均水平一倍以上的标准方差，不过依然低于科网股泡沫的时代，而同期国债收益率水平大幅降低。\n\n2021年标普500预期的分红增长，我们看到原材料表现最好，预计增长11.7%，其次是医疗、可选消费、科技信息和必选消费。另一方面，金融、科技信息、通信服务板块的股东回购占比较高。\n\n下面是美国成长和价值的风格切换，去年一整年是成长风格吊打价值，在今年开始价值风格开始抬头向上。历史上成长风格相对价值表现最好的是2000年科网股泡沫，价值风格相对成长表现最好是2007年房地产泡沫。从行业和GDP的相关性看，必选消费、公用事业、可选消费的相关性最低，工业和金融的相关性最高。\n\n下面这张图特别重要，是今年以来不同风格的表现。我们看到今年价值风格明显抬头，全面跑赢成长风格（也可以理解风格终于出现了均值回归）。表现最好的是小盘价值风格（也是过去一年表现最差的风格），收益率达到21.2%。表现最差的是中盘成长风格，收益率是-0.6%，去年表现最好的大盘成长风格，今年也只有0.9%的正收益。从2020年3月市场前一个低端看，表现最好的是小盘风格，无论是价值、成长、还是均衡都排名前三。\n\n下面这张图对我们A股长期投资选择赛道有借鉴意义。在标普500市值占比的分布中，占比最高的是科技、消费和医疗。其中科技占比26.6%，可选消费占比12.4%，必选消费占比6.1%（两者相加对应18.5%的消费权重），医疗占比13%。而能源、原材料、公用事业、房地产的占比都在3%以下。此外，今年截至到一季度末，表现最好的行业是能源，涨幅30.9%，其次是金融，涨幅16%。\n\n下面这张图我也很喜欢，在一个中期国运中，你只要做多就行了。美国国运最强的并不是过去40年，但是过去40年依然经历了美股历史上最长最大的两波牛市。1980年以来，标普500下跌的年份只有8次，跌幅超过10%的年份只有3次。但是每一年的年中都会出现指数低于上一年末水平的时候，其实只要在市场每一次下跌做多，就能赚到丰厚的收益！\n\n我们继续看，过去30年市场发生了太多的黑天鹅危机，似乎百年一遇的危机每隔几年都会发生，这些危机在长周期中，只是大浪潮中的小浪花，完全不能阻止美股的向上。无论是亚洲金融危机、长期资本倒闭、科网股泡沫、911恐怖袭击、还是新冠疫情。最大的一次危机是2008年全球金融危机，但拉长看你什么都不做，过个4年指数就会创新高。\n\n新冠疫情的感染率大幅下降，美国打疫苗的人数快速增加。\n\n下面这张图，我们看到美国因为新冠疫情出现的失业率飙升是暂时的，之后出现大幅下滑，当然失业率统计口径也发生了变化，事实上去年许多人拿的失业金补助都超过了之前的工资水平。\n\n国内投资者最关注的国债收益率拐点，是不是真的能持续拐头向上呢？我们发现还要跟着通胀水平走，如果通胀真的起来了，而且站稳了，那么国债收益率就会拐点向上。\n\n下面这张图很有意思，关于全球央行什么时间收紧，每一次都是预测下一年要收紧，但是事实上放钱越来越多。我们看到2020年一次性释放的流动性，都超过了前几年的总和。2020年也是2009年以来全球央行降息次数最多的一年。\n\n全球股市在疫苗推出前后表现，我们看到中国股市在疫苗推出前是表现最好的，到了疫苗推出后就开始下跌，是表现最差的。从中可以理解，影响中国股市的就是流动性因素扰动。\n\n下面这张图代表全球消费力的变化。在2000年的时候，全球消费增长有39%来自美国，18%来自欧洲。到了2019年，中国消费占全球消费增长的22%，仅次于美国。今天，中国已经占到全球奢侈品消费量的35%，更何况中国双十一销量总规模已经超越了美国的感恩节假期。\n\n全球碳中和目标，未来整个碳排放会出现大幅下降，替代能源的占比大幅提高，可能是未来十年最重要的投资主题之一。\n\n1999至2019年各类资产的年化收益率，标普500的年化收益率6.1%，高收益债年化收益率7.9%，REITs最高达到11.6%（不过美国的REITs和中国的不一样），追涨杀跌的个人投资者年化收益率2.5%……","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131481666,"gmtCreate":1621873971455,"gmtModify":1704363734721,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131481666","repostId":"2137397671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137397671","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621845251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137397671?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 16:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Switch to a small company! \"Queen of the Bull Market\" Sister Wood's strategy has changed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137397671","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里？ARK投资策略的转变也向投资者抛出了一个问题。\n方舟投资管理公司（ARK）的总裁Cathie Wood降低持仓的集中度，出售规模更大、流动性更强的公司的股票，买入交易不那么活","content":"<p>Don't put your eggs in one basket? The shift in ARK's investment strategy also throws a question for investors.</p><p>Cathie Wood, president of ARK Investment Management (ARK), reduced the concentration of holdings, sold shares of larger and more liquid companies and bought shares of smaller companies that were less actively traded.</p><p>This strategy adds to concerns that ARK has shown a highly speculative investment propensity.</p><p>According to Bloomberg data, although the number of companies in which ARK holds more than 10% of the shares is the same as three months ago, the concentration of shareholdings is declining.</p><p>ARK no longer holds more than 20% of any stock, with the largest holding being Compugen, but it has fallen to 17.2% from 21.3% earlier this year.</p><p>Now the second and third places in shareholding ratio are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSYS\">Stratasys</a>And 2U, with proportions of 16% and 15.9%, respectively.</p><p>Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and founder of market research firm The Sevens Report, said:</p><p>It's an evolution-now ARK is a huge family of funds. That makes sense, especially for some of the smaller market capitalization companies, where they are reducing this concentration. The money invested in a small company changes the calculation of risk-reward. ARK's total assets fell from $60 billion at the peak to $41 billion today, mainly as investors worried about rising inflation and turned their eyes to funds benefiting from the economic recovery, causing stocks in its funds to plummet.</p><p>ARK's ETF funds have experienced several volatile weeks, with fund performance down more than 32% from its peak on February 12.</p><p>Since the end of February this year, this series of funds has actually only lost about $1.2 billion, and the outflow of funds is still small.</p><p>Nate geraci, president of consulting firm ETF Store, said that this also reflects the confidence of ARK investors to some extent. He believes that investors seem to be investing for the long term.</p><p>This means that fund managers have time to adjust their position instead of liquidating in a panic.</p><p>This doesn't mean that the ARK fund won't face outflows in the future, and if it underperforms for a long time, it may shake some Wood fans.</p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA research, said:</p><p>I fear that investors who are relatively new to this strategy will see weak performance and then withdraw when management increasingly favors some smaller companies. But because investors remain relatively loyal, they don't have to change their portfolios to meet their clients' redemption requirements. Investors may not want to make such a hasty decision, but if the ARK fund doesn't rebound, then we may see some new investors withdraw their money.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Switch to a small company! \"Queen of the Bull Market\" Sister Wood's strategy has changed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSwitch to a small company! \"Queen of the Bull Market\" Sister Wood's strategy has changed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don't put your eggs in one basket? The shift in ARK's investment strategy also throws a question for investors.</p><p>Cathie Wood, president of ARK Investment Management (ARK), reduced the concentration of holdings, sold shares of larger and more liquid companies and bought shares of smaller companies that were less actively traded.</p><p>This strategy adds to concerns that ARK has shown a highly speculative investment propensity.</p><p>According to Bloomberg data, although the number of companies in which ARK holds more than 10% of the shares is the same as three months ago, the concentration of shareholdings is declining.</p><p>ARK no longer holds more than 20% of any stock, with the largest holding being Compugen, but it has fallen to 17.2% from 21.3% earlier this year.</p><p>Now the second and third places in shareholding ratio are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSYS\">Stratasys</a>And 2U, with proportions of 16% and 15.9%, respectively.</p><p>Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and founder of market research firm The Sevens Report, said:</p><p>It's an evolution-now ARK is a huge family of funds. That makes sense, especially for some of the smaller market capitalization companies, where they are reducing this concentration. The money invested in a small company changes the calculation of risk-reward. ARK's total assets fell from $60 billion at the peak to $41 billion today, mainly as investors worried about rising inflation and turned their eyes to funds benefiting from the economic recovery, causing stocks in its funds to plummet.</p><p>ARK's ETF funds have experienced several volatile weeks, with fund performance down more than 32% from its peak on February 12.</p><p>Since the end of February this year, this series of funds has actually only lost about $1.2 billion, and the outflow of funds is still small.</p><p>Nate geraci, president of consulting firm ETF Store, said that this also reflects the confidence of ARK investors to some extent. He believes that investors seem to be investing for the long term.</p><p>This means that fund managers have time to adjust their position instead of liquidating in a panic.</p><p>This doesn't mean that the ARK fund won't face outflows in the future, and if it underperforms for a long time, it may shake some Wood fans.</p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA research, said:</p><p>I fear that investors who are relatively new to this strategy will see weak performance and then withdraw when management increasingly favors some smaller companies. But because investors remain relatively loyal, they don't have to change their portfolios to meet their clients' redemption requirements. Investors may not want to make such a hasty decision, but if the ARK fund doesn't rebound, then we may see some new investors withdraw their money.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631071\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9749d6ae014d072e09697e7b2d199a","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631071","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137397671","content_text":"不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里？ARK投资策略的转变也向投资者抛出了一个问题。\n方舟投资管理公司（ARK）的总裁Cathie Wood降低持仓的集中度，出售规模更大、流动性更强的公司的股票，买入交易不那么活跃的小公司股票。\n这一策略加剧了人们的担忧，即ARK表现出了一种极具投机性质的投资倾向。\n据彭博数据显示，虽然ARK持有10%以上股份的公司数量与三个月前相同，但持股的集中度在下降。\nARK不再持有任何股票超过20%的股份，持有最大比例的是Compugen，但已从今年早些时候的21.3%降至17.2%。\n现在持股比例占第二、三名的分别是Stratasys和2U，比例分别为16%和15.9%。\n前美林交易员、市场研究机构The Sevens Report的创始人Tom Essaye说：\n\n 这是一种进化——现在ARK是一个庞大的基金家族。这是有道理的，特别是对于一些市值较小的公司，他们正在降低这种集中度。投入到小公司中的资金会改变风险回报的计算结果。\n\nARK的资产总额从峰值时的600亿美元降至目前的410亿美元，主要是因为投资者担心通胀加剧，以及将目光转向受益于经济复苏的基金，导致其基金中的股票暴跌。\nARK的ETF基金经历了几周的动荡，基金表现较2月12日的峰值下跌了32%以上。\n今年2月底以来，这一系列基金实际上只损失了约12亿美元，流出的资金依然不多。\n咨询公司ETF Store总裁Nate geraci说这也在一定程度上反映了ARK投资者的信心。他认为，投资者似乎是在进行长期投资。\n这意味着基金经理有时间调整仓位头寸，而不是慌张地进行清算。\n这并不意味着ARK基金未来不会面临资金外流，如果长期不佳表现可能会动摇一些Wood的粉丝。\nCFRA research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示:\n\n 我担心，对这一策略比较陌生的投资者会看到疲软的表现，然后在管理层越来越青睐一些小公司时撤资。但由于投资者保持了相对的忠诚，他们不必改变投资组合以满足客户的赎回要求。投资者可能不想做出这样草率的决定，但如果ARK基金不反弹，那么我们可能会看到一些新投资者撤回资金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131481044,"gmtCreate":1621873933488,"gmtModify":1704363733422,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131481044","repostId":"2137133573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137133573","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621827990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137133573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 11:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns of the global market in the coming year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137133573","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Sheets指出，金融危机后十年，经济风险倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是央行会如何刺激增长。但眼下我们面临一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。","content":"<p>An epidemic sweeping the world has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has dragged the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis period, and the core issues that dominate market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist, recently looked at the long-term, pointing out that the current economic and market conditions are quite different from those in the post-financial crisis decade.</p><p><b>The labels of the post-financial crisis are fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks' pre-emptive efforts to curb inflationary risks:</b></p><p>Indeed, while we often associate \"easing policy\" with the previous cycle, the tightening of the People's Bank of China in 2010, the ECB's rate hike in 2011, and the Fed's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early moves to nip inflation in the bud. On the other hand, at present, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, strong consumption and investment have become the four cylinders of the economic engine:</p><p>Fiscal policy has expanded in an unprecedented way, consumption in the United States, Europe and China is in good shape, and savings are at record levels. We are also seeing a \"red-hot capital spending cycle\" with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near record lows.<b>However, in the face of strong growth, the response of global central banks remained calm.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the high unemployment rate and average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>This is a global economy that \"steps on the accelerator more and steps on the brakes less,\" Sheets concludes.</b>This means that the risk picture facing the global economy is also different. In the past decade, risks have tended to lean to the downside, and the focus of the market is what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat weakness.</p><p><b>Now that growth is safe, the core worries of dominating the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change the central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressure? 4. Is the strong growth already reflected in the price? Sheets pointed out that if these are the \"concerns\" that will dominate the next 6-12 months, then they will not act on global markets \"evenly\" and have different effects on different markets and assets:</p><p>For U.S. stocks and credit, as well as emerging markets, these concerns will be the primary and central issue. But for Europe and Japan, issues such as overvaluations, high inflation, a hawkish policy shift or a new corporate tax seem far more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually quick normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class tends to stand out early in the cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to guarantee survival. But as the market heats up, the extra growth doesn't mean investors can get any extra income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, according to our latest 12-month forecast, credit is underperforming and the credit risk premium looks high relative to other assets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns of the global market in the coming year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns of the global market in the coming year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>An epidemic sweeping the world has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has dragged the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis period, and the core issues that dominate market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist, recently looked at the long-term, pointing out that the current economic and market conditions are quite different from those in the post-financial crisis decade.</p><p><b>The labels of the post-financial crisis are fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks' pre-emptive efforts to curb inflationary risks:</b></p><p>Indeed, while we often associate \"easing policy\" with the previous cycle, the tightening of the People's Bank of China in 2010, the ECB's rate hike in 2011, and the Fed's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early moves to nip inflation in the bud. On the other hand, at present, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, strong consumption and investment have become the four cylinders of the economic engine:</p><p>Fiscal policy has expanded in an unprecedented way, consumption in the United States, Europe and China is in good shape, and savings are at record levels. We are also seeing a \"red-hot capital spending cycle\" with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near record lows.<b>However, in the face of strong growth, the response of global central banks remained calm.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the high unemployment rate and average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>This is a global economy that \"steps on the accelerator more and steps on the brakes less,\" Sheets concludes.</b>This means that the risk picture facing the global economy is also different. In the past decade, risks have tended to lean to the downside, and the focus of the market is what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat weakness.</p><p><b>Now that growth is safe, the core worries of dominating the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change the central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressure? 4. Is the strong growth already reflected in the price? Sheets pointed out that if these are the \"concerns\" that will dominate the next 6-12 months, then they will not act on global markets \"evenly\" and have different effects on different markets and assets:</p><p>For U.S. stocks and credit, as well as emerging markets, these concerns will be the primary and central issue. But for Europe and Japan, issues such as overvaluations, high inflation, a hawkish policy shift or a new corporate tax seem far more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually quick normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class tends to stand out early in the cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to guarantee survival. But as the market heats up, the extra growth doesn't mean investors can get any extra income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, according to our latest 12-month forecast, credit is underperforming and the credit risk premium looks high relative to other assets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137133573","content_text":"一场席卷全球的疫情改变了全球经济的面貌，史无前例的财政和货币政策刺激将全球经济一把拽出了后金融危机时期长期停滞的泥潭，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。\n摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师Andrew Sheets近日放眼长期，指出眼下的经济和市场情况，和后金融危机时代的那十年相比，已经大有不同。\n后金融危机时期的标签是财政紧缩、低投资、消费者去杠杆化，以及央行先发制人地遏制通胀风险：\n\n 事实上，尽管我们常常将“宽松政策”与上一个周期联系在一起，但中国央行在2010年就开始紧缩、欧洲央行2011年的加息以及美联储2015年的加息都是为了将通胀扼杀在萌芽状态的积极早期举措。\n\n反观眼下，财政宽松、低息贷款、强劲的消费和投资成为经济引擎上的四大气缸：\n\n 财政政策史无前例地扩张，美国、欧洲和中国的消费状况良好，储蓄水平达到创纪录水平。我们还看到了一个“炽热的资本支出周期”，公共和私人部门投资都在增加，同时全球实际利率仍接近历史低点。\n\n然而，面对强劲的增长，全球央行反应依然淡定。对于美联储来说，关注焦点依然是居高不下的失业率以及平均通胀目标，对于欧洲央行，焦点在于长期通胀依然低于预期。\nSheets总结道，这是一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济。这意味着全球经济面临的风险情况也有所不同。过去10年，风险往往倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是，央行会想出什么样的新宽松形式来对抗疲弱。\n现在增长无虞，因此主宰市场的核心忧虑在于:\n\n 1. 经济复苏是否会导致通胀?2. 这会否改变央行政策?3. 这是否会导致利润和税收压力?4. 强劲的增长是否已经体现在价格上了?\n\nSheets指出，如果这些是主导未来6-12个月的“担忧”，那么它们不会“平均”地作用于全球市场，对不同市场和资产，有不同的影响：\n\n 对于美国股票和信贷，以及新兴市场领域，这些担忧将成为首要和中心问题。但对欧洲和日本来说，过高估值、高通胀、强硬政策转变或新企业税等问题似乎要遥远得多。\n\n更热的周期也可能意味着更短的周期，以及异常快的正常化。Sheets认为，这种情况不利于信贷：\n\n 这一资产类别往往在周期初期和衰退后表现突出，此时增长复苏，企业专注于业务以保证生存。但随着市场升温，额外的增长并不意味着投资者能从公司债券中获得任何额外的收入。在跨资产的基础上，根据我们最新的12个月预测，信贷表现不佳，相对于其他资产，信贷风险溢价看起来很高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133921203,"gmtCreate":1621687006302,"gmtModify":1704361470796,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133921203","repostId":"1181267371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181267371","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621683714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181267371?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-22 19:41","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Musk and former U.S. Treasury Secretary support cryptocurrency, Bitcoin quickly rises","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181267371","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据外媒报道，有网友提问$特斯拉 $CEO埃隆·马斯克怎么看待那些因为加密货币而对其感到生气的人，马斯克回应称，真正的战斗是在法定货币和加密货币之间。总体而言，我支持后者。前美国财长萨默斯近日表示，数字货币类似于“数字黄金”，即使它们在经济中的重要性仍然有限。萨默斯认为，数字货币有机会成为一个新的形式，这种形式让人们安全地保有财富。他还认为，数字货币技术将继续存在，而且可能作为一种“数字黄金”而存在。","content":"<p>According to foreign media reports,<b>Some netizens asked questions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What does CEO Elon Musk think of those who are angry with cryptocurrencies? Musk responded that the real battle is between Fiat Money (Fiat Money) and cryptocurrencies. Overall, I support the latter.</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers recently said that digital currencies are similar to \"digital gold\", even though their importance in the economy is still limited. Summers said that for those seeking assets \"independent of government control\", digital currencies have become an alternative to gold, which has been in this category for a long time before. Summers believes that digital currency has the opportunity to become a new form that allows people to keep their wealth safely. He also believes that digital currency technology will continue to exist, and it may exist as a kind of \"digital gold\".</p><p>Bitcoin rose by nearly US $1,000 in the short term, once hitting an intraday high of US $38,735 per coin, up more than 3% within the day.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk and former U.S. Treasury Secretary support cryptocurrency, Bitcoin quickly rises</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk and former U.S. Treasury Secretary support cryptocurrency, Bitcoin quickly rises\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-22 19:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to foreign media reports,<b>Some netizens asked questions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What does CEO Elon Musk think of those who are angry with cryptocurrencies? Musk responded that the real battle is between Fiat Money (Fiat Money) and cryptocurrencies. Overall, I support the latter.</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers recently said that digital currencies are similar to \"digital gold\", even though their importance in the economy is still limited. Summers said that for those seeking assets \"independent of government control\", digital currencies have become an alternative to gold, which has been in this category for a long time before. Summers believes that digital currency has the opportunity to become a new form that allows people to keep their wealth safely. He also believes that digital currency technology will continue to exist, and it may exist as a kind of \"digital gold\".</p><p>Bitcoin rose by nearly US $1,000 in the short term, once hitting an intraday high of US $38,735 per coin, up more than 3% within the day.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181267371","content_text":"据外媒报道，有网友提问特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克怎么看待那些因为加密货币而对其感到生气的人，马斯克回应称，真正的战斗是在法定货币（Fiat Money，菲亚特货币）和加密货币之间。总体而言，我支持后者。前美国财长萨默斯近日表示，数字货币类似于“数字黄金”，即使它们在经济中的重要性仍然有限。萨默斯表示，对于那些寻求“独立于政府控制”的资产的人来说，数字货币成为了黄金的替代品，而在此前的很长时间里，黄金一直属于这一类资产。萨默斯认为，数字货币有机会成为一个新的形式，这种形式让人们安全地保有财富。他还认为，数字货币技术将继续存在，而且可能作为一种“数字黄金”而存在。比特币短线走高近1000美元，一度刷新日内高位至38735美元/枚，日内涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":107698667,"gmtCreate":1620476947959,"gmtModify":1704344207832,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107698667","repostId":"1129750415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129750415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620468958,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129750415?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129750415","media":"猛兽财经","summary":"波音的股价自从在2019年3月达到历史最高点后，就受到了737 MAX停飞和疫情的双重打击，两年过去了至今还没恢复过来。展望未来，波音的复苏之路也不是很顺利，而且737 MAX仍在中国停飞，并面临着电","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Since the stock price reached an all-time high in March 2019, it has been hit by the grounding of the 737 MAX and the epidemic. Two years have passed and it has not yet recovered. Looking ahead, Boeing's road to recovery hasn't been very smooth either, and the 737 MAX is still grounded in China and facing problems with its electrical system. In addition, the recovery in international travel has also been slower than expected.</p><p>The market generally expects that Boeing will achieve positive profitability and cash flow in fiscal year 2022, and this year's revenue will exceed the level of 2019, but in the view of Beast Finance, the market is still too optimistic. While the market's long-term expectations for passenger traffic growth and aircraft demand remain unchanged, we still believe that buying Boeing stock in 2021 is not a good investment. Because in addition to the uncertain timing of the launch of the new 737 MAX model and the speed of the recovery in international travel, the market also values Boeing higher than rival Airbus. Given these factors, we don't think Boeing is a good buy in 2021.</p><p><b>Company Introduction</b></p><p>On Boeing's website, you can see that Boeing claims that Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company, the world's leading manufacturer of civil aircraft and defense, space and security systems, and a provider of after-sales support services. As the largest manufacturing exporter in the United States, Boeing supports airline and government customers in more than 150 countries and regions around the world. Boeing's products and customized services include: civil and military aircraft, satellites, weapons, electronic and defense systems, launch systems, advanced information and communication systems, and performance-based logistics and training.</p><p>Boeing has three business units: Commercial Aircraft Group, Defense, Space and Security Group, and Boeing Global Services Group. As a global provider of financial solutions, Boeing Financial is responsible for supporting these business groups.</p><p>In addition, there are functional organizations that work at the entire company level, focusing on engineering and project management, technical and R&D project execution, advanced design and manufacturing systems, safety, finance, quality and productivity improvement, and information technology.</p><p>But we all know that the global commercial aircraft market has long been duopolised by Boeing and Airbus.</p><p>Prior to the grounding of the 737 MAX in 2019 and the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, Boeing generated 57% and 65% of its fiscal 2018 revenue and operating profit, respectively, from its core commercial aircraft business. In fiscal year 2018, the revenue contributed by defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 26%, 17% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively.</p><p>In fiscal year 2020, revenue from commercial aircraft, defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 28%, 45%, 26% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively. Boeing's core commercial aircraft business unit has been losing money in fiscal 2019, fiscal 2020 and the first quarter of fiscal 2021.</p><p>In this article, Beast Finance mainly focuses on Boeing's commercial aircraft business, because this business once contributed the largest revenue to Boeing and this business is the key for Boeing to narrow losses and eventually return to profitability in the future.</p><p><b>Boeing's stock price</b></p><p>Boeing's stock price reached an all-time high of $430.30 on March 1, 2019, mainly because the company reported a month ago on January 30, 2019, its fiscal 2018 revenue and profit record highs.</p><p>However, the good days didn't last long. Boeing's 737 MAX passenger plane was grounded after the Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX passenger plane crashed in March 2019. As of December 31, 2019, Boeing's stock price has fallen 25% from its all-time high to $323.83.</p><p>On December 16, 2019, Boeing announced that it would \"suspend production of the 737 program.\" A week later, on December 23, 2019, Boeing revealed that its chairman David l. Calhoun would replace Dennis A. Muilenburg as the company's new CEO.</p><p>To make matters worse, on March 20, 2020, with the outbreak of the epidemic, Boeing's stock price fell to $95.01, setting a five-year low. The epidemic is another major blow to Boeing's core commercial aircraft business, as countries have imposed travel restrictions to fight the epidemic and global air travel has stopped.</p><p>Boeing's stock price eventually fell from $323.83 on December 31, 2019 to $214.06 on December 31, 2020, a drop of 34%. But its shares have since jumped another 125% from their March lows. Specifically, Boeing's stock price rebounded strongly in November and December 2020 on positive news about lifting the grounding of the 737 MAX and vaccinations. On Nov. 18, 2020, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX. Separately, the World Health Organization noted in December 2020 that the \"first mass vaccination program\" had begun.</p><p>In 2021, Boeing's stock price will continue to rebound. Since the beginning of this year, Boeing's stock price has risen 7%, from $214.06 on December 31, 2020 to $228.18 on May 5, 2021. While it is safe to say that Boeing's worst is over, the road to recovery will certainly not be smooth sailing.</p><p><b>Can Boeing's share price continue to recover</b></p><p>Beast Finance believes that the key to whether Boeing's stock price can continue to recover lies in whether its core commercial aircraft business unit can reduce losses in time and regain profitability. And the future prospects for Boeing's commercial aircraft business are in turn impacted by 737 MAX deliveries and the resumption of global travel.</p><p>So far, revenue from Boeing's commercial aircraft business has fallen 31% year-on-year, from US $6.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2021. This is already an improvement from the 50% decline in revenue for the full year of fiscal 2020. In addition, part of the operating loss of the commercial aircraft business also decreased from US $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $900 million in the most recent quarter. The improvement was primarily due to the resumption of deliveries of the 737 MAX after the Federal Aviation Administration lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX in November 2020. As of April 26, 2021, Boeing has delivered more than 85 737MAX aircraft. It is worth noting that Boeing also received new orders for 737 aircraft from some other airlines in the United States.</p><p>On the other hand, the 737 MAX is still waiting to land in China, a major aviation market. During its first quarter 2021 earnings call on April 28, 2021, Boeing acknowledged that \"we are still awaiting regulatory approval from China for the 737 MAX\" and that \"its timing will impact our 737 delivery plans\" and \"future productivity rates\". To further complicate the matter, whether China can lift the grounding order of the 737 MAX is not just a safety issue, because U.S.-China relations may also be an important factor in determining when the 737 MAX will be approved to resume service in China.</p><p>More importantly, there are still many problems with the 737 MAX aircraft itself. Reuters reported on April 29, 2021 that the Federal Aviation Administration has asked Boeing to \"fix connectivity problems in the electrical systems of some of its 737 MAX aircraft that may cause engine protection measures to fail and critical functions of the cockpit to fail.\" Reuters then published another article on May 5, 2021, emphasizing the requirement that Boeing provide the FAA with \"up-to-date documentation to prove that the 737 MAX subsystem is not affected by electrical connectivity problems.\" Boeing earlier revealed at the end of April 2021 that about \"100 aircraft in service were affected by electrical system problems,\" which would result in \"few deliveries in April.\"</p><p>In other words, getting the 737 MAX back to normal delivery levels could take longer than expected.</p><p>Separately, the resumption of global travel is another key factor that has a significant impact on Boeing's core commercial aircraft business. The latest news released by the International Air Transport Association on May 4th shows that the prospect of global air travel is bleak in the near future. According to data from the International Air Transport Association, the number of kilometers flown by passengers worldwide is still about one-third of what it was before the pandemic (that is, March 2019). Compared with domestic travel, international travel is expected to take longer to resume.</p><p><b>Global Travel Data and Trends</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b27b9e7d4e601fe5b8504d6617226e\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99a53447a89ee63ca432ae05ca7a611\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48841f1f97ed09d443ecb67dbe2ffd1\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>Apart from that, there are other, more complicating factors. In April 2021, the WHO noted that it did not support the resumption of global travel given \"uncertainty about whether vaccination will prevent the spread of the pandemic and equity concerns,\" Reuters reported. A few days ago, the IATA also warned that travel resumption \"could be dangerously impacted by [high] costs.\" More importantly, as the graph below shows, the 2019 pandemic has been uneven in containment around the world. While the number of weekly confirmed cases in the United States has dropped significantly, confirmed cases continue to increase in places such as India and Latin America.</p><p>Confirmed cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia around the world</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a1ab352a9a07223c40c479d1fd3c58\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>In short, although Boeing's commercial aircraft business will definitely recover eventually, the timing of the recovery is still very uncertain, mainly due to the complications we mentioned above.<b>Financial projections for Boeing</b>Boeing reiterated at its first-quarter 2021 results presentation that \"in line with the International Air Transport Association and other industry groups, we expect passenger traffic to return to 2019 levels from 2023 to 2024. Boeing also added on the earnings call,\" The recovery in the commercial aircraft business will allow us to achieve positive cash flow in 2022. \"</p><p>The sell-side analyst will often be consistent with the company's management in their future financial projections. According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the market generally believes that Boeing'S revenue will increase by 37% and 12% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively, to $79.8 billion and $89.5 billion. Wall Street expects Boeing's revenue to be flat in fiscal 2023 and increase 8% year-over-year to $96 billion in fiscal 2024. For reference, Boeing had revenue of $76.6 billion in fiscal 2019 and sales of $101.1 billion in fiscal 2020.</p><p>According to the consensus estimate of sell-side analysts, Boeing is also on track to be profitable in fiscal 2022, with operating cash flow and free cash flow of $9.4 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively. Over the last two years of fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020, Boeing's operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative, and it is expected to remain unchanged in fiscal 2021. Notably, Boeing's operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 was-$3.4 billion, an improvement from-$4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2020. Nonetheless, Boeing emphasized on its first-quarter 2021 earnings call that \"our cash flow position is largely dependent on the availability of remaining 737 MAX regulatory approvals, the recovery of the commercial aircraft business and ongoing discussions with customers on fleet planning needs.</p><p>In the view of Beast Finance, the current market is still a bit too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast. At present, the epidemic is on the rise again in some parts of the world, and the recovery speed of international travel is slower than expected. And what is still uncertain is whether Boeing's latest electrical system problems will cause further delays in 737 MAX deliveries. We think there is a good chance that sell-side analysts will consider lowering their financial forecasts for Boeing in the coming quarters.</p><p><b>Should You Buy Boeing Stock in 2021?</b>In the long run, we really like Boeing, a very good enterprise. More importantly, the duopoly pattern of companies like Airbus and Boeing in commercial aircraft is unlikely to be challenged by any company in the foreseeable future, because there are huge barriers to entry in this field in terms of scale and capital.</p><p>On the other hand, Boeing stock may not be as attractive in the near term. The reason is what we mentioned earlier. The current market is still too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast, and the market's valuation of Boeing is higher than that of its competitor Airbus, and more 737 MAX aircraft are still suffering from current electrical system problems. The impact, as well as factors such as the epidemic taking longer than expected to be effectively controlled, prompted us to reach this conclusion.</p>","source":"lsy1586862168255","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Boeing Stock a Buy in 2021?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">猛兽财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Since the stock price reached an all-time high in March 2019, it has been hit by the grounding of the 737 MAX and the epidemic. Two years have passed and it has not yet recovered. Looking ahead, Boeing's road to recovery hasn't been very smooth either, and the 737 MAX is still grounded in China and facing problems with its electrical system. In addition, the recovery in international travel has also been slower than expected.</p><p>The market generally expects that Boeing will achieve positive profitability and cash flow in fiscal year 2022, and this year's revenue will exceed the level of 2019, but in the view of Beast Finance, the market is still too optimistic. While the market's long-term expectations for passenger traffic growth and aircraft demand remain unchanged, we still believe that buying Boeing stock in 2021 is not a good investment. Because in addition to the uncertain timing of the launch of the new 737 MAX model and the speed of the recovery in international travel, the market also values Boeing higher than rival Airbus. Given these factors, we don't think Boeing is a good buy in 2021.</p><p><b>Company Introduction</b></p><p>On Boeing's website, you can see that Boeing claims that Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company, the world's leading manufacturer of civil aircraft and defense, space and security systems, and a provider of after-sales support services. As the largest manufacturing exporter in the United States, Boeing supports airline and government customers in more than 150 countries and regions around the world. Boeing's products and customized services include: civil and military aircraft, satellites, weapons, electronic and defense systems, launch systems, advanced information and communication systems, and performance-based logistics and training.</p><p>Boeing has three business units: Commercial Aircraft Group, Defense, Space and Security Group, and Boeing Global Services Group. As a global provider of financial solutions, Boeing Financial is responsible for supporting these business groups.</p><p>In addition, there are functional organizations that work at the entire company level, focusing on engineering and project management, technical and R&D project execution, advanced design and manufacturing systems, safety, finance, quality and productivity improvement, and information technology.</p><p>But we all know that the global commercial aircraft market has long been duopolised by Boeing and Airbus.</p><p>Prior to the grounding of the 737 MAX in 2019 and the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, Boeing generated 57% and 65% of its fiscal 2018 revenue and operating profit, respectively, from its core commercial aircraft business. In fiscal year 2018, the revenue contributed by defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 26%, 17% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively.</p><p>In fiscal year 2020, revenue from commercial aircraft, defense, space and security, global services and financial businesses accounted for 28%, 45%, 26% and 1% of Boeing's overall revenue respectively. Boeing's core commercial aircraft business unit has been losing money in fiscal 2019, fiscal 2020 and the first quarter of fiscal 2021.</p><p>In this article, Beast Finance mainly focuses on Boeing's commercial aircraft business, because this business once contributed the largest revenue to Boeing and this business is the key for Boeing to narrow losses and eventually return to profitability in the future.</p><p><b>Boeing's stock price</b></p><p>Boeing's stock price reached an all-time high of $430.30 on March 1, 2019, mainly because the company reported a month ago on January 30, 2019, its fiscal 2018 revenue and profit record highs.</p><p>However, the good days didn't last long. Boeing's 737 MAX passenger plane was grounded after the Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX passenger plane crashed in March 2019. As of December 31, 2019, Boeing's stock price has fallen 25% from its all-time high to $323.83.</p><p>On December 16, 2019, Boeing announced that it would \"suspend production of the 737 program.\" A week later, on December 23, 2019, Boeing revealed that its chairman David l. Calhoun would replace Dennis A. Muilenburg as the company's new CEO.</p><p>To make matters worse, on March 20, 2020, with the outbreak of the epidemic, Boeing's stock price fell to $95.01, setting a five-year low. The epidemic is another major blow to Boeing's core commercial aircraft business, as countries have imposed travel restrictions to fight the epidemic and global air travel has stopped.</p><p>Boeing's stock price eventually fell from $323.83 on December 31, 2019 to $214.06 on December 31, 2020, a drop of 34%. But its shares have since jumped another 125% from their March lows. Specifically, Boeing's stock price rebounded strongly in November and December 2020 on positive news about lifting the grounding of the 737 MAX and vaccinations. On Nov. 18, 2020, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX. Separately, the World Health Organization noted in December 2020 that the \"first mass vaccination program\" had begun.</p><p>In 2021, Boeing's stock price will continue to rebound. Since the beginning of this year, Boeing's stock price has risen 7%, from $214.06 on December 31, 2020 to $228.18 on May 5, 2021. While it is safe to say that Boeing's worst is over, the road to recovery will certainly not be smooth sailing.</p><p><b>Can Boeing's share price continue to recover</b></p><p>Beast Finance believes that the key to whether Boeing's stock price can continue to recover lies in whether its core commercial aircraft business unit can reduce losses in time and regain profitability. And the future prospects for Boeing's commercial aircraft business are in turn impacted by 737 MAX deliveries and the resumption of global travel.</p><p>So far, revenue from Boeing's commercial aircraft business has fallen 31% year-on-year, from US $6.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2021. This is already an improvement from the 50% decline in revenue for the full year of fiscal 2020. In addition, part of the operating loss of the commercial aircraft business also decreased from US $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US $900 million in the most recent quarter. The improvement was primarily due to the resumption of deliveries of the 737 MAX after the Federal Aviation Administration lifted its grounding order on the 737 MAX in November 2020. As of April 26, 2021, Boeing has delivered more than 85 737MAX aircraft. It is worth noting that Boeing also received new orders for 737 aircraft from some other airlines in the United States.</p><p>On the other hand, the 737 MAX is still waiting to land in China, a major aviation market. During its first quarter 2021 earnings call on April 28, 2021, Boeing acknowledged that \"we are still awaiting regulatory approval from China for the 737 MAX\" and that \"its timing will impact our 737 delivery plans\" and \"future productivity rates\". To further complicate the matter, whether China can lift the grounding order of the 737 MAX is not just a safety issue, because U.S.-China relations may also be an important factor in determining when the 737 MAX will be approved to resume service in China.</p><p>More importantly, there are still many problems with the 737 MAX aircraft itself. Reuters reported on April 29, 2021 that the Federal Aviation Administration has asked Boeing to \"fix connectivity problems in the electrical systems of some of its 737 MAX aircraft that may cause engine protection measures to fail and critical functions of the cockpit to fail.\" Reuters then published another article on May 5, 2021, emphasizing the requirement that Boeing provide the FAA with \"up-to-date documentation to prove that the 737 MAX subsystem is not affected by electrical connectivity problems.\" Boeing earlier revealed at the end of April 2021 that about \"100 aircraft in service were affected by electrical system problems,\" which would result in \"few deliveries in April.\"</p><p>In other words, getting the 737 MAX back to normal delivery levels could take longer than expected.</p><p>Separately, the resumption of global travel is another key factor that has a significant impact on Boeing's core commercial aircraft business. The latest news released by the International Air Transport Association on May 4th shows that the prospect of global air travel is bleak in the near future. According to data from the International Air Transport Association, the number of kilometers flown by passengers worldwide is still about one-third of what it was before the pandemic (that is, March 2019). Compared with domestic travel, international travel is expected to take longer to resume.</p><p><b>Global Travel Data and Trends</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b27b9e7d4e601fe5b8504d6617226e\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99a53447a89ee63ca432ae05ca7a611\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48841f1f97ed09d443ecb67dbe2ffd1\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>Apart from that, there are other, more complicating factors. In April 2021, the WHO noted that it did not support the resumption of global travel given \"uncertainty about whether vaccination will prevent the spread of the pandemic and equity concerns,\" Reuters reported. A few days ago, the IATA also warned that travel resumption \"could be dangerously impacted by [high] costs.\" More importantly, as the graph below shows, the 2019 pandemic has been uneven in containment around the world. While the number of weekly confirmed cases in the United States has dropped significantly, confirmed cases continue to increase in places such as India and Latin America.</p><p>Confirmed cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia around the world</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a1ab352a9a07223c40c479d1fd3c58\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>In short, although Boeing's commercial aircraft business will definitely recover eventually, the timing of the recovery is still very uncertain, mainly due to the complications we mentioned above.<b>Financial projections for Boeing</b>Boeing reiterated at its first-quarter 2021 results presentation that \"in line with the International Air Transport Association and other industry groups, we expect passenger traffic to return to 2019 levels from 2023 to 2024. Boeing also added on the earnings call,\" The recovery in the commercial aircraft business will allow us to achieve positive cash flow in 2022. \"</p><p>The sell-side analyst will often be consistent with the company's management in their future financial projections. According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the market generally believes that Boeing'S revenue will increase by 37% and 12% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively, to $79.8 billion and $89.5 billion. Wall Street expects Boeing's revenue to be flat in fiscal 2023 and increase 8% year-over-year to $96 billion in fiscal 2024. For reference, Boeing had revenue of $76.6 billion in fiscal 2019 and sales of $101.1 billion in fiscal 2020.</p><p>According to the consensus estimate of sell-side analysts, Boeing is also on track to be profitable in fiscal 2022, with operating cash flow and free cash flow of $9.4 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively. Over the last two years of fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020, Boeing's operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative, and it is expected to remain unchanged in fiscal 2021. Notably, Boeing's operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 was-$3.4 billion, an improvement from-$4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2020. Nonetheless, Boeing emphasized on its first-quarter 2021 earnings call that \"our cash flow position is largely dependent on the availability of remaining 737 MAX regulatory approvals, the recovery of the commercial aircraft business and ongoing discussions with customers on fleet planning needs.</p><p>In the view of Beast Finance, the current market is still a bit too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast. At present, the epidemic is on the rise again in some parts of the world, and the recovery speed of international travel is slower than expected. And what is still uncertain is whether Boeing's latest electrical system problems will cause further delays in 737 MAX deliveries. We think there is a good chance that sell-side analysts will consider lowering their financial forecasts for Boeing in the coming quarters.</p><p><b>Should You Buy Boeing Stock in 2021?</b>In the long run, we really like Boeing, a very good enterprise. More importantly, the duopoly pattern of companies like Airbus and Boeing in commercial aircraft is unlikely to be challenged by any company in the foreseeable future, because there are huge barriers to entry in this field in terms of scale and capital.</p><p>On the other hand, Boeing stock may not be as attractive in the near term. The reason is what we mentioned earlier. The current market is still too optimistic about Boeing's financial forecast, and the market's valuation of Boeing is higher than that of its competitor Airbus, and more 737 MAX aircraft are still suffering from current electrical system problems. The impact, as well as factors such as the epidemic taking longer than expected to be effectively controlled, prompted us to reach this conclusion.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H-dZ6S6YFsOHwpuTgXAlgw\">猛兽财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db65f3d4f6f7c47bb1a0c9e744a2fd64","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H-dZ6S6YFsOHwpuTgXAlgw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129750415","content_text":"波音的股价自从在2019年3月达到历史最高点后，就受到了737 MAX停飞和疫情的双重打击，两年过去了至今还没恢复过来。展望未来，波音的复苏之路也不是很顺利，而且737 MAX仍在中国停飞，并面临着电气系统的问题。此外，国际旅行的复苏速度也比预期的要慢。市场普遍预期，波音将在2022财年实现盈利和现金流转正，今年的收入将超过2019年的水平，但在猛兽财经看来，市场还是太乐观了。虽然市场对客流量的增长和飞机需求的长期预期保持不变，但我们还是认为在2021年买入波音的股票不是一项好的投资。因为除了737 MAX新机型的推出时间和国际旅行的复苏速度不确定之外，市场对波音的估值也比竞争对手空客高。考虑到这些因素，我们认为波音在2021年不是一个好的买入对象。公司介绍在波音网站上可以看到波音宣称波音公司是全球最大的航空航天业公司，也是世界领先的民用飞机和防务、空间与安全系统制造商，以及售后支持服务提供商。作为美国最大的制造出口商，波音公司为分布在全球150多个国家和地区的航空公司和政府客户提供支持。波音的产品以及定制的服务包括：民用和军用飞机、卫星、武器、电子和防御系统、发射系统、先进信息和通讯系统，以及基于性能的物流和培训等。波音公司下设三个业务部门：商用飞机集团，防务、空间与安全集团，以及波音全球服务集团。作为金融解决方案的全球提供者，波音金融公司负责支持这些业务集团。此外，还有一些在整个公司层面工作的职能组织，关注工程和项目管理、技术和研发项目执行、先进设计和制造系统、安全、财务、质量和生产力改进，以及信息技术。但我们都知道，全球商用飞机市场早已被波音和空客这两家公司双头垄断了。在2019年737 MAX停飞和2020年疫情爆发之前，波音2018财年的收入和运营利润分别有57%和65%来自其核心商用飞机业务。2018财年，防务、空间与安全、全球服务和金融业务贡献的收入分别占到了波音整体收入的26%、17%和1%。在2020财年，来自商用飞机、国防、空间与安全、全球服务和金融业务贡献的收入分别占到了波音整体收入的28%、45%、26%和1%。而波音公司的核心商用飞机业务部门在2019财年、2020财年和2021财年第一季度一直处于亏损状态。在本文中，猛兽财经主要关注的是波音的商用飞机业务，因为这项业务曾为波音贡献了最大的收入以及该业务是波音缩小亏损并最终在未来恢复盈利的关键。波音的股价波音的股价在2019年3月1日达到了430.30美元的历史最高点，主要是因为该公司在一个月前的2019年1月30日公布的其2018财年收入和利润都创造了历史新高。然而好日子并没有持续多久。2019年3月，埃塞俄比亚航空公司的737 MAX客机坠毁后，波音的737 MAX客机就被停飞了。截至2019年12月31日，波音的股价已经从其历史最高点下跌了25%，至323.83美元。2019年12月16日，波音公司宣布将“暂停737项目的生产”。一周后，也就是2019年12月23日，波音公司透露，其董事长大卫·l·卡尔霍恩将取代丹尼斯·A·米伦伯格成为公司的新CEO。更糟糕的是，2020年3月20日，随着疫情的爆发，波音股价跌到了95.01美元，创下了五年来的新低。这次疫情对波音核心商用飞机业务来说又是一次重大打击，因为各国为抗击疫情已经实施了旅行限制，全球航空旅行已经停止了。波音的股价最终从2019年12月31日的323.83美元下跌到了2020年12月31日的214.06美元，下跌了34%。但其股价后来从3月份的低点又大幅上涨了125%。具体来说，波音的股价在2020年11月和12月出现了强劲反弹，原因是有关取消737 MAX停飞和疫苗接种的利好消息。2020年11月18日，美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)取消了对737 MAX的停飞令。另外，世界卫生组织在2020年12月指出，“第一次大规模疫苗接种计划”已经开始。2021年，波音的股价继续在回升。今年以来，波音股价上涨了7%，从2020年12月31日的214.06美元上涨到了2021年5月5日的228.18美元。虽然可以有把握的说，波音最糟糕的时期已经过去，但复苏之路肯定不会一帆风顺。波音股价能否持续回升猛兽财经认为波音股价能否持续回升的关键在于其核心商用飞机业务部门能否及时减少亏损，并重新实现盈利。而波音商业飞机业务的未来前景反过来又受到737 MAX交付量和全球旅行恢复的影响。到目前为止波音商用飞机业务的营收已经同比下降了31%，从2020年第一季度的62亿美元下降到了2021年第一季度的43亿美元。这已经比在2020财年全年收入下降50%的情况下有所改善。另外商用飞机业务的部分运营亏损也从2020年第一季度的21亿美元减少到最近一季度的9亿美元。这一改善主要是由于美国联邦航空管理局在2020年11月取消了对737 MAX的停飞令后，737 MAX的交付恢复。截至2021年4月26日，波音已交付了超过85架的737MAX飞机。值得注意的是，波音也从美国的一些其他航空公司接到了737飞机的新订单。另一方面，737 MAX仍在等待在中国这个主要的航空市场落地。在2021年4月28日的2021年第一季度财报电话会议上，波音承认“我们仍在等待中国对737 MAX的监管批准”，“它的时间将影响我们的737交付计划”和“未来的生产率”。令问题进一步复杂化的是，中国能不能取消对737 MAX的停飞令不仅仅是一个安全问题，因为美中关系也可能是决定737 MAX何时获准在中国恢复服务的一个重要因素。更重要的是，737 MAX飞机本身还存在着很多问题。路透社在2021年4月29日报道，美国联邦航空管理局已要求波音公司“修复其部分737 MAX飞机电气系统的连接问题，这些问题可能会导致发动机擎保护措施失效和驾驶舱的关键功能失效。”路透社随后又在2021年5月5日发表了另一篇文章，强调要求波音向美国联邦航空管理局提供“最新的文件，用来证明737 MAX子系统不会受到电气连接问题的影响。”波音公司早前在2021年4月底就透露，约有“100架在用飞机受到了电气系统问题的影响”，这将导致“4月份的交付量很少”。换句话说，将737 MAX恢复到正常的交付水平可能要花费比预期更长的时间。另外，全球旅行的恢复是对波音核心商用飞机业务产生重大影响的另一个关键因素。国际航空运输协会5月4日的发布的最新消息显示，近期全球航空旅行前景黯淡。根据国际航空运输协会的数据，全球旅客飞行公里数仍约为疫情前的(即2019年3月)的三分之一。与国内旅游相比，国际旅行预计还需要更长的时间才能恢复。全球旅行数据和趋势资料来源:国际航空运输协会除此之外，还有其他更复杂的因素。据路透社报道，2021年4月，世卫组织指出，鉴于“接种疫苗是否能防止疫情传播的不确定性以及公平担忧”，它不支持恢复全球旅行。几天前，国际航空运输协会还警告说，旅行恢复“可能会因(高昂的)成本而受到危险的影响。”更重要的是，如下图所示，2019疫情在世界各地的遏制情况并不均衡。虽然美国每周确诊的病例显著下降，但在印度和拉丁美洲等地，确诊病例还在继续增加。世界各地的新冠肺炎确诊病例资料来源:国际航空运输协会简而言之，虽然波音的商用飞机业务最终肯定会复苏，但复苏的时间还非常不确定，主要原因还是我们上面说的那些复杂因素。对波音的财务预测波音在2021年第一季度业绩发布会上重申，“与国际航空运输协会和其他行业团体一致，我们预计2023年至2024年客运量将恢复到2019年的水平。波音还在财报电话会议上补充道，“商用飞机业务的复苏将使我们能够在2022年实现正现金流。”卖方分析师通常会与公司管理层在未来的财务预测上保持一致。根据S&P Capital IQ的数据，市场普遍认为，波音在2021财年和2022财年的营收将分别增长37%和12%，达到798亿美元和895亿美元。华尔街预计，波音的营收将在2023财年持平，2024财年将同比增长8%，达到960亿美元。作为参考，波音在2019财年的收入为766亿美元，在2020财年的销售额为1011亿美元。根据卖方分析师的普遍预期，波音还有望在2022财年实现盈利，运营现金流和自由现金流分别达到94亿美元和75亿美元。在2019财年和2020财年的过去两年里，波音的运营现金流和自由现金流均为负值，预计2021财年将保持不变。值得注意的是，波音2021年第一季度的运营现金流为- 34亿美元，较2020年第一季度的- 43亿美元有所改善。尽管如此，波音公司还是在2021第一季度财报电话会议上强调，“我们的现金流状况在很大程度上取决于能否获得剩余的737 MAX监管批准、商用飞机业务的复苏以及与客户就机群规划需求进行的持续讨论。在猛兽财经看来，目前市场对波音公司的财务预测还是有点过于乐观了。当前，疫情在全球部分地区再次抬头，国际旅行复苏速度低于预期。而且目前还不能确定的是，波音最新的电气系统问题是否还会导致737 MAX的交付进一步延迟。我们认为卖方分析师很有可能会考虑下调对波音未来几个季度的财务预测。在2021年应该买入波音股票吗？从长远来看，我们确实非常喜欢波音这种非常优秀的企业。更重要的是，在可预见的未来，空客和波音这种公司在商用飞机领域的双头垄断格局不太可能会受到任何公司的挑战，因为这个领域在规模和资金方面存在着巨大的进入壁垒。另一方面，波音的股票在短期内可能不那么有吸引力。理由就是我们前面说过的那些，目前市场对波音的财务预测还是太乐观了，而且市场对波音的估值高于与其竞争对手空客，以及更多的737 MAX飞机还在受到当前电气系统问题的影响，还有就是疫情需要比预期更长的时间才能得到有效控制等因素，促使我们得到这样的结论。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112042421,"gmtCreate":1622830881663,"gmtModify":1704192106226,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112042421","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187222291,"gmtCreate":1623756192113,"gmtModify":1703818231257,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187222291","repostId":"1116108105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131481044,"gmtCreate":1621873933488,"gmtModify":1704363733422,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131481044","repostId":"2137133573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137133573","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621827990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137133573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 11:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns of the global market in the coming year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137133573","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Sheets指出，金融危机后十年，经济风险倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是央行会如何刺激增长。但眼下我们面临一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。","content":"<p>An epidemic sweeping the world has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has dragged the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis period, and the core issues that dominate market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist, recently looked at the long-term, pointing out that the current economic and market conditions are quite different from those in the post-financial crisis decade.</p><p><b>The labels of the post-financial crisis are fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks' pre-emptive efforts to curb inflationary risks:</b></p><p>Indeed, while we often associate \"easing policy\" with the previous cycle, the tightening of the People's Bank of China in 2010, the ECB's rate hike in 2011, and the Fed's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early moves to nip inflation in the bud. On the other hand, at present, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, strong consumption and investment have become the four cylinders of the economic engine:</p><p>Fiscal policy has expanded in an unprecedented way, consumption in the United States, Europe and China is in good shape, and savings are at record levels. We are also seeing a \"red-hot capital spending cycle\" with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near record lows.<b>However, in the face of strong growth, the response of global central banks remained calm.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the high unemployment rate and average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>This is a global economy that \"steps on the accelerator more and steps on the brakes less,\" Sheets concludes.</b>This means that the risk picture facing the global economy is also different. In the past decade, risks have tended to lean to the downside, and the focus of the market is what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat weakness.</p><p><b>Now that growth is safe, the core worries of dominating the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change the central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressure? 4. Is the strong growth already reflected in the price? Sheets pointed out that if these are the \"concerns\" that will dominate the next 6-12 months, then they will not act on global markets \"evenly\" and have different effects on different markets and assets:</p><p>For U.S. stocks and credit, as well as emerging markets, these concerns will be the primary and central issue. But for Europe and Japan, issues such as overvaluations, high inflation, a hawkish policy shift or a new corporate tax seem far more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually quick normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class tends to stand out early in the cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to guarantee survival. But as the market heats up, the extra growth doesn't mean investors can get any extra income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, according to our latest 12-month forecast, credit is underperforming and the credit risk premium looks high relative to other assets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns of the global market in the coming year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns of the global market in the coming year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>An epidemic sweeping the world has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has dragged the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis period, and the core issues that dominate market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist, recently looked at the long-term, pointing out that the current economic and market conditions are quite different from those in the post-financial crisis decade.</p><p><b>The labels of the post-financial crisis are fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks' pre-emptive efforts to curb inflationary risks:</b></p><p>Indeed, while we often associate \"easing policy\" with the previous cycle, the tightening of the People's Bank of China in 2010, the ECB's rate hike in 2011, and the Fed's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early moves to nip inflation in the bud. On the other hand, at present, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, strong consumption and investment have become the four cylinders of the economic engine:</p><p>Fiscal policy has expanded in an unprecedented way, consumption in the United States, Europe and China is in good shape, and savings are at record levels. We are also seeing a \"red-hot capital spending cycle\" with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near record lows.<b>However, in the face of strong growth, the response of global central banks remained calm.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the high unemployment rate and average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>This is a global economy that \"steps on the accelerator more and steps on the brakes less,\" Sheets concludes.</b>This means that the risk picture facing the global economy is also different. In the past decade, risks have tended to lean to the downside, and the focus of the market is what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat weakness.</p><p><b>Now that growth is safe, the core worries of dominating the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change the central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressure? 4. Is the strong growth already reflected in the price? Sheets pointed out that if these are the \"concerns\" that will dominate the next 6-12 months, then they will not act on global markets \"evenly\" and have different effects on different markets and assets:</p><p>For U.S. stocks and credit, as well as emerging markets, these concerns will be the primary and central issue. But for Europe and Japan, issues such as overvaluations, high inflation, a hawkish policy shift or a new corporate tax seem far more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually quick normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class tends to stand out early in the cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to guarantee survival. But as the market heats up, the extra growth doesn't mean investors can get any extra income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, according to our latest 12-month forecast, credit is underperforming and the credit risk premium looks high relative to other assets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137133573","content_text":"一场席卷全球的疫情改变了全球经济的面貌，史无前例的财政和货币政策刺激将全球经济一把拽出了后金融危机时期长期停滞的泥潭，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。\n摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师Andrew Sheets近日放眼长期，指出眼下的经济和市场情况，和后金融危机时代的那十年相比，已经大有不同。\n后金融危机时期的标签是财政紧缩、低投资、消费者去杠杆化，以及央行先发制人地遏制通胀风险：\n\n 事实上，尽管我们常常将“宽松政策”与上一个周期联系在一起，但中国央行在2010年就开始紧缩、欧洲央行2011年的加息以及美联储2015年的加息都是为了将通胀扼杀在萌芽状态的积极早期举措。\n\n反观眼下，财政宽松、低息贷款、强劲的消费和投资成为经济引擎上的四大气缸：\n\n 财政政策史无前例地扩张，美国、欧洲和中国的消费状况良好，储蓄水平达到创纪录水平。我们还看到了一个“炽热的资本支出周期”，公共和私人部门投资都在增加，同时全球实际利率仍接近历史低点。\n\n然而，面对强劲的增长，全球央行反应依然淡定。对于美联储来说，关注焦点依然是居高不下的失业率以及平均通胀目标，对于欧洲央行，焦点在于长期通胀依然低于预期。\nSheets总结道，这是一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济。这意味着全球经济面临的风险情况也有所不同。过去10年，风险往往倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是，央行会想出什么样的新宽松形式来对抗疲弱。\n现在增长无虞，因此主宰市场的核心忧虑在于:\n\n 1. 经济复苏是否会导致通胀?2. 这会否改变央行政策?3. 这是否会导致利润和税收压力?4. 强劲的增长是否已经体现在价格上了?\n\nSheets指出，如果这些是主导未来6-12个月的“担忧”，那么它们不会“平均”地作用于全球市场，对不同市场和资产，有不同的影响：\n\n 对于美国股票和信贷，以及新兴市场领域，这些担忧将成为首要和中心问题。但对欧洲和日本来说，过高估值、高通胀、强硬政策转变或新企业税等问题似乎要遥远得多。\n\n更热的周期也可能意味着更短的周期，以及异常快的正常化。Sheets认为，这种情况不利于信贷：\n\n 这一资产类别往往在周期初期和衰退后表现突出，此时增长复苏，企业专注于业务以保证生存。但随着市场升温，额外的增长并不意味着投资者能从公司债券中获得任何额外的收入。在跨资产的基础上，根据我们最新的12个月预测，信贷表现不佳，相对于其他资产，信贷风险溢价看起来很高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184149199,"gmtCreate":1623692112911,"gmtModify":1704208902191,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184149199","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to signal when it may begin to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to signal when it may begin to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274383,"gmtCreate":1623147250942,"gmtModify":1704197044203,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274383","repostId":"1101949190","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101949190","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623147077,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101949190?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"White House: Must work with allies to secure supply of metals needed for electric vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101949190","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。","content":"<p>The White House said on Tuesday that due to environmental and other considerations, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also set up a task force to determine where minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed in the country. It's unclear what impact this will have on existing EV mineral projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major hurdle to Biden's electric vehicle rollout plan, as domestic mining sites face wide regulatory thresholds and environmentalists' opposition.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>White House: Must work with allies to secure supply of metals needed for electric vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhite House: Must work with allies to secure supply of metals needed for electric vehicles\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The White House said on Tuesday that due to environmental and other considerations, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also set up a task force to determine where minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed in the country. It's unclear what impact this will have on existing EV mineral projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major hurdle to Biden's electric vehicle rollout plan, as domestic mining sites face wide regulatory thresholds and environmentalists' opposition.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11fb5ef0b1cb032e12ea701b85e5650d","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","F":"福特汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101949190","content_text":"美国白宫周二表示，出于环保和其他因素考虑，美国必须与盟友合作，以确保电动汽车电池所需的矿产供应，并在国内进行加工。拜登政府还将成立一个工作小组，确定用于电动汽车电池和其他技术的矿物可以在国内哪些地方生产和加工。目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。\n获得足够的铜、锂和其他原材料来生产电动汽车电池，是拜登电动汽车推广计划的一个主要障碍，因为国内矿场面临着广泛的监管门槛和环保人士反对。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274078,"gmtCreate":1623147230794,"gmtModify":1704197044687,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274078","repostId":"1179000628","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179000628","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623144281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179000628?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179000628","media":"智通财经","summary":"2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。","content":"<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stock risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: He Yucheng</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increases, U.S. stocks may pull back in the next six months. 10%-15%.</p><p>Given that in the past four quarters, the earnings of U.S. stock companies have exceeded expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings situation in the second half of 2021 is relatively grim.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that during the epidemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituent stocks achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely the technology, health care and utilities industries.</p><p>The chart below, FactSet (FDS), shows the record results expected in Q2 2021, the best since Q4 2009.</p><p><b>Tax increase-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting on June 5 announced support for the proposal to levy the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current The technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the hardest hit.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>The third quarter may become a concentrated explosion point for U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the market's consensus forecast for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index, it is still at a high level of around 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, there is limited room for further upward movement in the US stock market.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases a signal to reduce bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter may be the time when U.S. stock risks will break out.</p><p>And if the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined to be January 1, 2022, the high probability of the outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy stocks remain attractive</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best-performing sector in U.S. stock markets this year, but there is still plenty of room for upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>Looking at the longer timeline, the stock prices of energy producers have not yet returned to the levels before the oil price plunge that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving upward revisions to earnings per share growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. This peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1179000628","content_text":"作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在2020年第一季度和第二季度实现了正收益和收入增长，即科技、保健以及公用事业行业。\n下图FactSet(FDS)显示了2021年第二季度预期的创纪录结果，这是自2009年第四季度以来最好的一次。\n加税——美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大。\n中信证券表示，若资本利得税若上调至39.6%，预计将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转。\n3季度或成为美股集中爆发点\n虽然市场对今年标普500盈利增速的一致预期已从4月中旬的27%上调至当前的34%，但鉴于目前标普指数动态估值仍处于22倍左右的高位。在无新的催化因素下，美股大市进一步上行的空间有限。\n相反，各类风险却在逐步加剧。若美联储于8月底明确释放削减购债的信号，且民主党于9月底前如期通过加税法案，则3季度下旬或是美股风险集中爆发的时间点。\n而如果资本利得税改的起始有效日最终确定为2022年1月1日，则“散户加杠杆”资金的大概率流出可能会在4季度对美股的表现造成负面影响。\n能源股仍具备吸引力\n在美国股市今年以来的交易中，能源股是表现最好的一个板块，但要弥补多年以来的大幅下跌，这个板块还有很大的上行空间。\n如拉长时间轴来看，能源生产商的股价尚未恢复到2014年夏季开始的油价大跌之前的水平。\n\n如埃克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)正在推动能源行业每股收益增长的上调。\n目前能源占标普500指数市值的比例仍然只有3%。这一比例在2014年8月至9月达到14%-15%的峰值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045103,"gmtCreate":1622830951302,"gmtModify":1704192106711,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112045103","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107698067,"gmtCreate":1620476889959,"gmtModify":1704344207026,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107698067","repostId":"1119886772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119886772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119886772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"<p>Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.<b>At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b>The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-<b>Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.</b>The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,<b>We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises</b>However, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,<b>It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.</b></p><p>--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)</p><p>Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to return to positive quickly. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,<b>Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.</b></p><p><b>The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\"</b>, should not be misread as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.</p><p><b>1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p><b>1. How academic papers define imported inflation</b></p><p><b>Imported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.</b></p><p>International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".</p><p><b>However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.</b></p><p>Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.</p><p>He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the United States was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.</p><p>He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.</p><p>Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.</p><p>These basic facts show that,<b>Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.</b></p><p><b>2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p>The existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.</p><p>Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.</p><p>We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.</p><p><b>2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.</p><p>The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,<b>For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:</b></p><p><b>First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.</b></p><p>Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".</p><p><b>Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.</b></p><p>Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.</p><p>Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.</p><p>Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.</p><p><b>Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.</b>When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.</p><p><b>2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.<b>If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:</b></p><p><b>One is a fixed exchange rate.</b>Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.</p><p><b>Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough</b>。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.</p><p><b>2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rate</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.</p><p><b>The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.</b></p><p><b>Discussion on imported inflation in 2011</b></p><p>At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.</p><p>As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.</p><p>Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.</p><p>Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.</p><p>However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.</p><p>Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to find<b>Domestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".</b></p><p>In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.</p><p>According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]</p><p>Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.</p><p>As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.</p><p><b>China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage</b></p><p><b>1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPI</b></p><p><b>Observing the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.</b>The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.</p><p>From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.</p><p>The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.</p><p>In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.</p><p>Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.</b>In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.</p><p>Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.</b>According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.</p><p><b>The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI</b>。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.</p><p>Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.</p><p>Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflation</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.</p><p>Taken together,<b>To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:</b>First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.</p><p>At this stage,<b>These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker</b>。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.</p><p>The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].</p><p>According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.</p><p>Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.</p><p><b>Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.</b>In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).</p><p>Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.</b>Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.</p><p>This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,<b>In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.</b></p><p>To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.<b>The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.</b>As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, my country's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.<b>Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.</b></p><p>Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.</p><p><b>To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.</b>After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.</p><p>In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,<b>On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,</b>Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.<b>On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends</b>。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: China does not have three conditions for imported inflation. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. But on the whole, there are at least three conditions to produce imported inflation: first, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.<b>At this stage, these three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China does not have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b>The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rising commodity prices-<b>Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it.</b>The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits. In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,<b>We can continue to use targeted tax and fee reduction measures to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises</b>However, considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, the space for structural fiscal policy to play a role is also limited. On the other hand,<b>It is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends.</b></p><p>--Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, young researchers at China Financial Forty Forum (CF40)</p><p>Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to return to positive quickly. Some people believe that this is typical imported inflation. Combing the existing academic research and facts can find that,<b>Imported inflation has its specific mechanism, and China's reality does not fully meet its conditions.</b></p><p><b>The current phased rise in PPI is certainly related to the rise in commodity prices, but it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\"</b>, should not be misread as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgment in decision-making.</p><p><b>1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p><b>1. How academic papers define imported inflation</b></p><p><b>Imported inflation refers to the increase of the overall domestic price level caused by the change of external economic factors.</b></p><p>International research on Imported Inflation (Imported Inflation) began during the oil crisis in 1970s. In his study of American inflation from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) mainly attributed the domestic price increase to external shocks, and proposed that this externally transmitted inflation cannot be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by abnormal inflows of effective demand in excess of supply or increasing import costs\".</p><p><b>However, judging from the history of two continuous sharp price increases of international commodities in the last half century, it seems that imported inflation pairs cannot well explain the inflation differences among countries during the same period.</b></p><p>Friedman (1979) compared the inflation levels of the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis, and found that the inflation levels of various countries did not all change synchronously with the rise of oil prices, and imported inflation was difficult to explain the differences in inflation among countries.</p><p>He noted that in the early 1970s, inflation in Japan and the UK was above 30% a year, while inflation in the United States was around 10% and Germany was less than 5%. In the five years after the oil crisis in 1973, inflation in Germany and Japan slowed down. The annual inflation rate in Germany decreased from about 7% to less than 5%, and that in Japan decreased from more than 30% to 5%; Inflation in the United States reached its peak in the following year, about 12%, dropped to 5% in 1976, and then rose to more than 13% in 1979.</p><p>He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% imported oil, but they have done a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which imports 50% of oil, or Britain, which has become a big oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.</p><p>Wu Ge (2011) also sorted out the different manifestations of inflation in different countries in the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in various countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the 10% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. With an increase of more than 20%, the volatility of inflation itself has become more moderate, and its linkage with commodity prices seems to be weakening. Under the impact of international commodity prices, the inflation rate of countries with high oil dependence such as Germany and Japan has remained at a low level; The U.S. oil dependence is relatively low, but the inflation rate is relatively high. As a major oil producer, Britain's inflation rate is the highest among the four countries.</p><p>These basic facts show that,<b>Imported inflation or external cost shocks cannot well explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.</b></p><p><b>2. Transmission mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p>The existing academic research generally divides the influence ways of external factors on domestic price level into three categories, and then constructs an econometric model to verify the corresponding transmission mechanism.</p><p>Most of these econometric models use indicators such as international commodity prices and money supply of other countries to reflect external factors as explanatory variables, and take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as explained variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.</p><p>We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of the existing academic studies.</p><p><b>2.1 Imported inflation under the cost push mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of domestic basic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will cause a general increase in price levels and bring about cost-driven inflation.</p><p>The current discussion on imported inflation is mainly based on this logic. But,<b>For the above mechanism to work, at least three necessary conditions must be met:</b></p><p><b>First, China is the recipient of international commodity price changes, and the domestic supply and demand state basically cannot affect international commodity prices, and the appreciation of its exchange rate cannot offset the increase of import prices.</b></p><p>Otherwise, \"input\" will be impossible to talk about. This is why this mechanism will play a significant role in the model of \"small country open economy\".</p><p><b>Second, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the main part of domestic production costs, and its price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.</b></p><p>Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated according to the model that the price level is affected by the prices of labor, raw materials and land, and found that the average response elasticity of CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08 and 0.02, respectively. From August 2009 to September 2010, the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials and land prices to CPI from the perspective of cost were 74%, 17% and 9% respectively. It can be seen that among the cost factors, labor cost occupies an absolutely dominant position.</p><p>Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices brought about by the oil crisis in 1970s had a great impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France. However, after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.</p><p>Bernank et al. (2004) also found that after entering the 21st century, commodity prices have little impact on CPI. The reason they concluded is that the proportion of raw materials in the total cost has become smaller, and part of the cost has been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.</p><p><b>Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.</b>When Wang Jingjing (2011) studied imported inflation, he found that the price of international financial derivatives and import price mainly changed the price of production factors of manufacturers, which ultimately showed the change of PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the influence of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations has been greatly weakened.</p><p><b>2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission logic: When inflation and price rises occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods to foreign countries, and at the same time restrain domestic residents' consumption of foreign imported goods, and instead increase the consumption of domestic goods, which will ultimately bring about domestic total demand. Increased demand triggers domestic inflation.<b>If the above mechanism is to be established, it must also meet two necessary conditions:</b></p><p><b>One is a fixed exchange rate.</b>Under the above-mentioned price mechanism, if foreign inflation factors want to have an effect on the trade structure, they must require the domestic exchange rate to be fixed, otherwise the relative changes of domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in exchange rates.</p><p><b>Second, the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities and the demand price elasticity of imported commodities should be large enough</b>。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic export commodities is small, even if foreign prices change greatly, domestic exports will not be greatly affected. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, the price increase of imported goods will not significantly affect the demand.</p><p><b>2.3 Imported inflation caused by stable exchange rate</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: When inflation and price increase occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the appreciation of the local currency is expected to cause a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the country's exchange rate, the country's central bank will passively increase the money supply, thereby stimulating domestic aggregate demand and leading to inflation.</p><p><b>The necessary condition for the establishment of this mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, in the trilemma, the central bank actually gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flow.</b></p><p><b>Discussion on imported inflation in 2011</b></p><p>At present, there is a certain price increase trend in the international commodity market. Some views associate this trend with the upward trend of domestic PPI and raise concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply focus on the last round of concentrated discussion on imported inflation in review, that is, in 2011.</p><p>As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, and the growth rate of PPI also ran at a high level of around 7%. The economic background at that time was that the world was in a period of great policy easing after responding to the international financial shock, and international commodity prices soared. The closing prices of North Sea Brent and WTI crude oil both exceeded US $100/barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year.%. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44% and 48.6% respectively.</p><p>Figure 1: 2009-2013 CPI and PPI monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) trend</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Under this background, the market and academic circles have held some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.</p><p>Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation on commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil producing countries on domestic inflation; From the data performance, it describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital and information flow channels.</p><p>However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation among countries in history; And try to explain the above inflation difference with the deviation between the money stock and the economic aggregate, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means to curb domestic inflation is still to control the domestic money aggregate. China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.</p><p>Simply review's macro background at that time, it is not difficult to find<b>Domestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to a certain extent, the result of \"export to domestic sales\".</b></p><p>In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion\" stimulus plan was gradually promoted. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%. The difference between the year-on-year growth rates of M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at that time. historical highs. At the same time, the amount of new credit in 2009 and 2010 reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan respectively.</p><p>According to a calculation by CICC (2011) at that time, from 2008 to 2010, China contributed 60% of the world's new currency. [The data comes from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19, 2011, which recorded the speech made by the representative of CICC at the macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was stated.]</p><p>Large-scale funds mainly enter the real economy in the form of policy-driven and government investment, which stimulates domestic investment demand and consumer demand and stabilizes economic growth, but also forms periodic excess demand and raises the overall price level. When related infrastructure was gradually converted into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and total supply, the inflation situation at that time gradually eased. By December 2011, the monthly CPI growth rate began to fall back to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.</p><p>As a result, 2011 was the high point of that round of commodity prices, and it was also the cyclical high point of global inflation. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and fighting deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.</p><p><b>China does not have the conditions for imported inflation at this stage</b></p><p><b>1. Basic fact: PPI is significantly stronger than CPI</b></p><p><b>Observing the price trend from CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of post-epidemic demand.</b>The continued recovery of pork supply will drive the overall CPI down, and the recovery of the service industry will accelerate, but there is still a certain distance from normal. The core CPI has left the bottom, but the continued upward rate will not be too high.</p><p>From January to March 2021, the cumulative growth rate of CPI was zero, and the overall CPI trend was still mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.</p><p>The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, which was 20.1 percentage points lower than the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork is still the biggest disturbance factor. Affected by the increase in frozen meat delivery during the Spring Festival and the continuous recovery of live pigs, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9/kg on April 2, a decrease of 20.3%. The cumulative decline of the pork sub-item in the CPI from January to March also reached 12.5%, driving the overall CPI to run at a low level.</p><p>In addition, from January to March this year, there was no extreme weather with great impact in the country, which ensured the sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative growth rate of fresh vegetables CPI from January to March was 4.8% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year. percentage points.</p><p>Figure 2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth trend of CPI, food sub-items, and pork sub-items</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 3: Pig supply plays a major role in this round of pig price changes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observing the core CPI trend excluding the impact of energy and food, it can be seen that it has been downward since 2018. In 2020, affected by the contraction of demand after the impact of the epidemic, the rate of this downward trend has accelerated significantly.</b>In 2020, when the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI hit 1.2% in March, it continued to fall all the way to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in that month was-0.3%, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This mainly comes from the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control has basically extinguished local epidemic clusters in various places in January, and the recovery of service consumption is on the right track.</p><p>Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in that month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking forward to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand of food, especially pork, is still a factor that cannot be ignored.</b>According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the average increase rate of 2.1% month-on-month in the number of live pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of live pigs will fully recover to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage is still significant. It should also be noted that the service industry is gradually recovering but the pace is still slow. After the epidemic, residents' consumption demand is still weak, and the upward rate of the core CPI after it breaks away from the bottom is expected to remain low.</p><p><b>The inflationary pressures commonly talked about in the market are actually mainly concentrated on PPI</b>。 In March, PPI increased by 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue proportion of enterprises above designated size in each industrial industry in 2020 as the weight. According to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industry Chain Index Series Compilation Plan\", we can calculate the respective PPIs of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial industries in that month. Year-on-year growth rate (Figure 5). It can be found that the overall price increase of industrial products mainly comes from the price increase of upstream industries in the industrial chain.</p><p>Figure 5: Decomposition of PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the price increase of the upstream industrial industry cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base period, and use the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the price increase of the four major categories of bulk commodities: black, nonferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products. Changes in the South China Commodity Index after the epidemic (Figure 6). Compared with pre-pandemic, ferrous metals rose the most (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), followed by agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still suffered a 33% decline.</p><p>Figure 6: South China Commodity Index Trends of Various Commodities</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflation</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, there are three main mechanisms of imported inflation (Figure 7), and the current discussion actually basically focuses on the cost-driving approach.</p><p>Taken together,<b>To produce imported inflation, there are at least three conditions:</b>First, the country is the recipient of international commodity price changes; Second, the arrangement of fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic industrial product prices and consumer goods prices.</p><p>At this stage,<b>These three conditions are basically not valid in China, and China doesn't have to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions of imported inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, China is the second largest economy in the world, not a small country as a price-taker</b>。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.</p><p>The research of Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the 40 major mineral resources in the world in 2018, 30 mineral consumption in China ranked first in the world [data from Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report, edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang.].</p><p>According to statistics (Figure 8), there are 12 kinds of minerals accounting for more than 50% of the world's energy and important mineral consumption in China, and 23 kinds account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include coal, cement limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and phosphorus.</p><p>Figure 8: China's major mineral consumption accounted for global proportion in 2018</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. Outlook for China's energy and important mineral resources demand [J]. Proceedings of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35 (03): 338-344.</p><p><b>Secondly, after years of reform, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been greatly enhanced at present, which can fully reflect all kinds of economic information.</b>In the process of this round of rising commodity prices, the appreciation of exchange rate has actually played a hedging role in rising commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).</p><p>Figure 9: Trends of South China Commodity Composite Index and RMB Exchange Rate Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, during this round of economic recovery, CPI and PPI have obviously diverged. Only PPI is rising rapidly, and the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, has not risen significantly.</b>Even though China's economy has continued to recover for four quarters, the actual inflationary pressure it faces is not great.</p><p>This divergence is not a new phenomenon. After 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least shows that,<b>In the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumer side is not smooth.</b></p><p>To sum up, China does not have the basis for imported inflation, so there is no need to worry about the so-called imported inflation.<b>The recovery pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economy can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.</b>As shown in Figure 6 above, the current price increase of domestic commodities is the most prominent price increase of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. Among the year-on-year growth rates of PPI by industry in March 2021, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry ranked the highest in the industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, and the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked at the forefront with a growth rate of 21.5%; The high PPI growth rates of non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining (13.3%) also confirm the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Combined with the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, my country's demand for chromium accounts for more than 60% of the world, and its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%; Among non-ferrous metals, my country's demand for tungsten accounts for nearly 80% of the world, and its demand for aluminum and copper also exceeds 50%.<b>Under the background that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge amount of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.</b></p><p>Inflation is a total issue, and the expression of inflation implies the meaning of economic overheating, which will constrain monetary policy. The macro data of the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in the recovery channel, and the core CPI has just broken away from the continuous downward trend. Although many service industries continue to recover, they are still a certain distance from normal. It is too early to discuss inflationary pressure at this time.</p><p><b>To deal with the rise in commodity prices, the focus should be on the imbalance of profit distribution in the industrial chain caused by it. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain, that is, the upstream industry accounts for an increasing proportion of overall profits.</b>After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly, and declined slightly in 2019, but it was still higher than the level before 2016.</p><p>In order to improve the imbalance of profit distribution in this industry chain,<b>On the one hand, we can continue to use targeted tax reduction and fee reduction measures,</b>Improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises, but considering the current dilemma of fiscal revenue and expenditure situation, there is limited room for structural fiscal policies to play a role.<b>On the other hand, it is still necessary to expand aggregate demand from the aggregate level. When the economy has not yet returned to the normal level of the epidemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macro-management policies and should not overreact to commodity price trends</b>。</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186880890,"gmtCreate":1623484487710,"gmtModify":1704204916016,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575693618857163","idStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186880890","repostId":"1105134625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105134625","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623140058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105134625?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 16:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The lunch break arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105134625","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","content":"<p>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14 for Queen's Birthday, and will be open as usual from Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, British stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural astronomical phenomena and evolved from worshipping dragons in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven stays of the black dragon soared into the middle of the south, and was in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Gan Gua said: \"The flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, a variety of folk customs are mixed into one, and the contents of festivals and customs are rich. Picking dragon boats and eating rice dumplings are the two major rituals and customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and have continued until now.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship the dragon ancestors and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping into Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also sayings to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors who chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragon in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and injected the fashion of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The lunch break arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The lunch break arrangement is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 16:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closing arrangements of major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14th (Monday) and open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14 for Queen's Birthday, and will be open as usual from Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, British stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The service will not be available on June 14th (Monday), and will be open as usual from June 15th (Tuesday).</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural astronomical phenomena and evolved from worshipping dragons in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven stays of the black dragon soared into the middle of the south, and was in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Gan Gua said: \"The flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, a variety of folk customs are mixed into one, and the contents of festivals and customs are rich. Picking dragon boats and eating rice dumplings are the two major rituals and customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and have continued until now.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship the dragon ancestors and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping into Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also sayings to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors who chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragon in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and injected the fashion of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105134625","content_text":"临近中国传统节日端午节假期，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。港股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。澳股：6月14日（周一）因 Queen's Birthday 休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。沪股通、深股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。港股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。背景介绍：端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。仲夏端午，苍龙七宿飞升于正南中天，处于全年最“正中”之位，即如《易经·乾卦》第五爻的爻辞曰：“飞龙在天”。其起源涵盖了古老星象文化、人文哲学等方面内容，蕴含着深邃丰厚的文化内涵，在传承发展中杂糅了多种民俗为一体，节俗内容丰富。扒龙舟与食粽是端午节的两大礼俗，这两大礼俗在中国自古传承，至今不辍。端午节，本是上古先民创立用于拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪的节日。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}