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2021-05-08

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Is Boeing stock worth buying in 2021?

2021-06-05

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2021-06-15

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2021-05-25

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Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns for global markets over the next year.

2021-06-15

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Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously

2021-06-08

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White House: Must work with allies to ensure the supply of metals needed for electric vehicles

2021-06-08

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"Tax increase + high inflation", the third quarter or become a concentrated explosion point of US stock risk

2021-06-05

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2021-05-08

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Does China need to worry about imported inflation?

2021-06-12

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Reminder: The market closure schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Over $2 trillion in US stock options battle tonight, the \"Four Witches' Day\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>The second \"Four Witches' Day\" of the year for US stocks arrives tonight, when more than $2 trillion in US stock options will expire. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's hints that liquidity may tighten, this \"Four Witches' Day\" may be a turning point for US stocks.</p><p>Quadruple Witching Day refers to the settlement date for derivative financial instruments in the U.S. market on the third Friday of each quarter (March, June, September, and December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire and settle on the same day. The simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes can lead to sharp market volatility, with bulls and bears engaging in a game.</p><p><b>The options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of options.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion in mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 options, totaling over $2 trillion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With US stocks hitting new highs recently, most outstanding June contracts are expected to be priced lower than the current spot price. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed around 3900 and 4150 with strike prices. This means that after this Friday, there may be some support around these points until they are refilled by the new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the Four Witches' Day has always been very huge.<b>However, what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of US stocks was very low before, and hints of a liquidity shift by the Federal Reserve have already emerged.</b></p><p>Over the past 13 trading days, the S&P 500 has seen volatility of only 5.1%, the lowest since 2019. However, compared to the sluggish market, individual stocks are extremely volatile, especially those favored by retail investors, such as GME and AMC.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out that<b>The coexistence of extremely low market volatility and a large number of call gamma options expiring is extremely dangerous.</b>Because once all positions are liquidated, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. Meanwhile, the Beta of VIX index futures relative to the S&P 500 index continues to rise, indicating that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will rebound, making the market more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but it did acknowledge that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. However, on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>Sixty-eight counterparties deposited $756 billion into the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repos, a record high of $584 billion.</b>The day before. The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase rate is used for only $520.9 billion. This means that in just one day, the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion, an increase of 45%.</p><p>The effect of the Federal Reserve's reverse repos is the opposite of that in China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repos is to release liquidity, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repos are to withdraw liquidity. Since usage surpassed the $500 billion mark for the first time in history last Wednesday, daily usage of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Over $2 trillion in US stock options battle tonight, the \"Four Witches' Day\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOver $2 trillion in US stock options battle tonight, the \"Four Witches' Day\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second \"Four Witches' Day\" of the year for US stocks arrives tonight, when more than $2 trillion in US stock options will expire. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's hints that liquidity may tighten, this \"Four Witches' Day\" may be a turning point for US stocks.</p><p>Quadruple Witching Day refers to the settlement date for derivative financial instruments in the U.S. market on the third Friday of each quarter (March, June, September, and December). Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire and settle on the same day. The simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes can lead to sharp market volatility, with bulls and bears engaging in a game.</p><p><b>The options expiring this Friday include: $240 billion worth of options.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">S&P 500 Index ETF</a>Options, $200 billion in mini S&P 500 futures and $1.8 trillion in S&P 500 options, totaling over $2 trillion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With US stocks hitting new highs recently, most outstanding June contracts are expected to be priced lower than the current spot price. As shown in the figure below, options are most densely distributed around 3900 and 4150 with strike prices. This means that after this Friday, there may be some support around these points until they are refilled by the new gamma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trading volume of the Four Witches' Day has always been very huge.<b>However, what is more noteworthy this time is that the volatility of US stocks was very low before, and hints of a liquidity shift by the Federal Reserve have already emerged.</b></p><p>Over the past 13 trading days, the S&P 500 has seen volatility of only 5.1%, the lowest since 2019. However, compared to the sluggish market, individual stocks are extremely volatile, especially those favored by retail investors, such as GME and AMC.</p><p>Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities pointed out that<b>The coexistence of extremely low market volatility and a large number of call gamma options expiring is extremely dangerous.</b>Because once all positions are liquidated, the actual volatility may rebound instantly. Meanwhile, the Beta of VIX index futures relative to the S&P 500 index continues to rise, indicating that if the market sells off, short gamma positions will rebound, making the market more volatile.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday did not indicate an immediate tightening of liquidity, but it did acknowledge that high inflation will not disappear in the short term, which is equivalent to walking a tightrope between doves and hawks. However, on Friday, real action began to tighten liquidity.</p><p>Friday,<b>Sixty-eight counterparties deposited $756 billion into the Federal Reserve through overnight reverse repos, a record high of $584 billion.</b>The day before. The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase rate is used for only $520.9 billion. This means that in just one day, the tool's usage increased by $235.1 billion, an increase of 45%.</p><p>The effect of the Federal Reserve's reverse repos is the opposite of that in China. Simply put, the role of my country's central bank's reverse repos is to release liquidity, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repos are to withdraw liquidity. Since usage surpassed the $500 billion mark for the first time in history last Wednesday, daily usage of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facility has exceeded $500 billion for seven consecutive trading days.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UVXY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SVXY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"VIXY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169597365,"gmtCreate":1623841740257,"gmtModify":1703821059137,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169597365","repostId":"1110862709","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169699105,"gmtCreate":1623831436307,"gmtModify":1703820771890,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169699105","repostId":"1132950320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132950320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623829906,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132950320?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Layoffs, executive departures, repeated rejections, Apple's seven years of building cars are really too difficult","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132950320","media":"AI前线","summary":"七年过去了，苹果汽车还是个 PPT 产品吗？\n\n屡被拒绝的苹果\n近日，根据路透社报道，苹果公司正在与宁德时代、比亚迪就电动汽车项目的电池供应进行初步洽谈。\n更早之前，苹果被传出与现代、日产等传统车企洽","content":"<p>Seven years later, is Apple Car still a PPT product?<b>The repeatedly rejected Apple</b></p><p>Recently, according to Reuters, Apple is holding preliminary talks with CATL and BYD on battery supply for electric vehicle projects.</p><p>Earlier, Apple was rumored to be negotiating cooperation with traditional car companies such as Hyundai and Nissan. This negotiation became the focus of the industry. There were even rumors that Apple had actually signed relevant agreements with Hyundai's subsidiaries, but unfortunately, there was no result in the end.</p><p>According to Wall Street Insight, back in May 2018, Apple had been in talks with German auto giant Volkswagen to produce an autonomous employee shuttle based on the T6 Transporter commercial vehicle — a plan that would lead to the development of Apple cars for the mass market. But after a series of test crashes and employee leaks, the partnership between the two companies was killed, with little disclosure about the matter.</p><p>Since the launch of Titan in 2014, which made it clear that it wanted to enter the automotive industry, Apple has suffered repeated setbacks in advancing its own plans and seeking partners. As a result, seven years have passed, and the outside world has not seen much substantial progress. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently claimed that the Apple Car may not launch until 2028 or later, given stalled negotiations, so expect to wait a long time to see it on the road.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, Apple has a small team dedicated to developing a new car, hoping to eventually compete with Tesla, but the development is still in its early stages. It will take at least five years for Apple to launch a self-driving electric car, because research and development is still in its early stages. Combined with the above analysts' forecasts, it will really take some time to wait until this Apple car.</p><p><b>Layoffs, frequent executive departures</b></p><p>Why is it so difficult for Apple to build a car?</p><p>There hasn't been much movement for a long time since Apple launched its Project Titan autonomous driving program in 2014. In 2018, it turned out to be a leak that exposed the progress of this project, and related documents showed that Apple's self-driving project had more than 5,000 employees at that time, of which about 2,700 were core employees.</p><p>By January 2019, the \"Titan Project\" was reported to be laid off again, and more than 200 employees were laid off in this incident.</p><p>Unlike the past, an Apple spokesperson acknowledged the news of the layoffs and said the company still believes there are opportunities in autonomous driving:</p><p>\"At Apple, we have a very talented team that works on autonomous systems and related technologies. In 2019, they will focus their work on several key areas, and some team members will be moved to projects in other parts of the company, where they will support machine learning and other projects across Apple. However, we remain convinced that there are huge opportunities for autonomous systems and that Apple has the unique ability to contribute, this is the most ambitious machine learning project ever. \" As mentioned earlier, Apple's autonomous driving plan sprouted as early as 2014, when it was said that more than 1,000 employees were working on projects at Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, San Francisco. But internal battles, leadership issues and other privacy concerns have affected the project, leading Apple to lay off employees and lay off hundreds of its employees.</p><p>A month later, Apple's self-driving car safety report was pointed out to be \"too simple\", with only seven pages of content and few safety-related key content.</p><p>Basically, it can be said that since the establishment of Apple's self-driving project, as long as it appears on the news page, it is basically not good news.</p><p>In the second half of 2019, the \"Titan Project\" finally had good news: in June, Apple officially acquired Drive.ai, a \"mom-and-pop store\" co-founded by AI big coffee Andrew Ng and his wife, to inject fresh vitality into its autonomous driving project.</p><p>Then, there was another long period of silence, and Apple's self-driving progress disappeared from the public view again until January 2020, when new progress appeared.</p><p>On January 29th, local time, some media found that Apple published a paper on Arxiv.org. The paper pointed out that Apple scientist Yichuan Charlie Tang and his team are using a method to simulate the driving scene of vehicles merging and gradually create a more diversified simulation environment.</p><p>Tang and co-authors wrote, \"We demonstrated this technique in a challenging multi-agent lane change simulation. In this simulated environment, the experimental goals must interact and negotiate with other vehicles to successfully merge on the road. While the environment starts with simple road conditions, we increase its complexity by repeatedly adding increasingly diverse factors to the agent'zoo' as we advance in training. Qualitatively, we found that through self-training, experimental targets automatically learn interesting behaviors such as defensive driving, overtaking, giving way, and using signal lights to communicate with other agents. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01883ebc73afc1f71d865339da65ecbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Schematic diagram of lane change simulation</p><p>As the researchers explained, in the field of autonomous driving, lane-changing behavior is considered a complex operation because it requires the driving system to accurately predict the intent and react accordingly. Traditional solutions make assumptions and rely on manually coded behavior, but these flexibility-limited and vulnerable strategies do not handle edge situations well, such as several cars trying to merge into the same lane at the same time. In contrast to rule-based systems, reinforcement learning directly learns policies through repeated interactions with the environment.</p><p>Although it is still being tested in a simulated environment, Apple's autonomous driving has finally shown some decent progress.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, many executives of Apple's autonomous driving have left one after another. In February, Apple's veteran self-driving member Benjamin Lyon officially left. It is reported that Benjamin Lyon is one of the founders of Apple's self-driving car project and once served as Apple's senior director of self-driving hardware.</p><p>During his 21 years at Apple, he worked on the research and development of Touch ID, a fingerprint recognition technology for the iPhone, before joining Apple's self-driving car team. In the same month, Jaime Waydo, who is in charge of the self-driving car safety and regulation team, left Apple, and the engineer was praised by Apple CEO Cook as \"the mother of all artificial intelligence projects\". In the following months, three more senior executives left one after another.</p><p>According to relevant sources, Apple's chip division led by Johny Srouji is also involved in automotive research and development. Since 2018, Srouji's team has been developing custom ARM-based chips focused primarily on machine learning processing for driving underlying autonomous vehicle systems.</p><p>Apple has been testing autonomous technology on public roads since 2017. The cars tested by the company averaged 118 miles in 2019 until a human safety driver needed control. According to the California Department of Vehicles, that number is up from 1 mile per drop-off in 2018. According to the California Department of Vehicles, the company owns 66 vehicles. This is an increase from 55 licensed vehicles as of mid-2018.</p><p><b>No Apple in the bustle of Robotaxi</b></p><p>In the past two years, Robotaxi has been in the limelight in the field of autonomous driving, and many domestic and foreign enterprises have laid out on it.</p><p>On September 26, 2019, Baidu launched Robotaxi service to the public in Changsha, Hunan Province; On August 5, 2019, Didi Chuxing announced that its autonomous driving division had been upgraded to an independent company, focusing on autonomous driving research and development, product application and related business expansion. It is understood that RoboTaxi is also one of the main businesses developed by Didi Autonomous Driving Company. As a domestic travel service provider, Didi seems to have innate advantages in this field; Pony.ai is the first company to launch Robotaxi services in both China and the United States. Except Beijing, it currently provides services to the public in Guangzhou, China, Irvine, California, and Fremont.</p><p>In Beijing, Pony's Robotaxi service scope will cover the 150 square kilometers core operation area of Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, including about 150 stations. The operation hours will last from 8:30 am to 22:30 pm, including morning and evening peak hours and night hours.</p><p>From 2017 to 2018, BMW, Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and other car manufacturers joined forces with Intel, Nvidia, Google, Lyft and other companies to enter RoboTaxi, and this is also the hottest period of autonomous driving.</p><p>In April 2019, Tesla founder Elon Musk even publicly stated that he would establish Tesla RoboTaxi Network in 2020. As part of Tesla Network's \"RoboTaxi\" service, owners of vehicles can earn up to $30,000 a year. Musk has set his sights on the autonomous mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) market. In a conference call after Tesla's rate hike announcement, Musk noted: RoboTaxi could eventually push the company to a market cap of $500 billion.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that, just like the promise of \"full autonomous driving by 2020\", most companies have set 2025 as the target year for full realization of RoboTaxi. In this way, it is somewhat difficult for Apple to catch up with this wave.</p>","source":"lsy1580199951562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Layoffs, executive departures, repeated rejections, Apple's seven years of building cars are really too difficult</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLayoffs, executive departures, repeated rejections, Apple's seven years of building cars are really too difficult\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AI前线</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 15:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Seven years later, is Apple Car still a PPT product?<b>The repeatedly rejected Apple</b></p><p>Recently, according to Reuters, Apple is holding preliminary talks with CATL and BYD on battery supply for electric vehicle projects.</p><p>Earlier, Apple was rumored to be negotiating cooperation with traditional car companies such as Hyundai and Nissan. This negotiation became the focus of the industry. There were even rumors that Apple had actually signed relevant agreements with Hyundai's subsidiaries, but unfortunately, there was no result in the end.</p><p>According to Wall Street Insight, back in May 2018, Apple had been in talks with German auto giant Volkswagen to produce an autonomous employee shuttle based on the T6 Transporter commercial vehicle — a plan that would lead to the development of Apple cars for the mass market. But after a series of test crashes and employee leaks, the partnership between the two companies was killed, with little disclosure about the matter.</p><p>Since the launch of Titan in 2014, which made it clear that it wanted to enter the automotive industry, Apple has suffered repeated setbacks in advancing its own plans and seeking partners. As a result, seven years have passed, and the outside world has not seen much substantial progress. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently claimed that the Apple Car may not launch until 2028 or later, given stalled negotiations, so expect to wait a long time to see it on the road.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, Apple has a small team dedicated to developing a new car, hoping to eventually compete with Tesla, but the development is still in its early stages. It will take at least five years for Apple to launch a self-driving electric car, because research and development is still in its early stages. Combined with the above analysts' forecasts, it will really take some time to wait until this Apple car.</p><p><b>Layoffs, frequent executive departures</b></p><p>Why is it so difficult for Apple to build a car?</p><p>There hasn't been much movement for a long time since Apple launched its Project Titan autonomous driving program in 2014. In 2018, it turned out to be a leak that exposed the progress of this project, and related documents showed that Apple's self-driving project had more than 5,000 employees at that time, of which about 2,700 were core employees.</p><p>By January 2019, the \"Titan Project\" was reported to be laid off again, and more than 200 employees were laid off in this incident.</p><p>Unlike the past, an Apple spokesperson acknowledged the news of the layoffs and said the company still believes there are opportunities in autonomous driving:</p><p>\"At Apple, we have a very talented team that works on autonomous systems and related technologies. In 2019, they will focus their work on several key areas, and some team members will be moved to projects in other parts of the company, where they will support machine learning and other projects across Apple. However, we remain convinced that there are huge opportunities for autonomous systems and that Apple has the unique ability to contribute, this is the most ambitious machine learning project ever. \" As mentioned earlier, Apple's autonomous driving plan sprouted as early as 2014, when it was said that more than 1,000 employees were working on projects at Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, San Francisco. But internal battles, leadership issues and other privacy concerns have affected the project, leading Apple to lay off employees and lay off hundreds of its employees.</p><p>A month later, Apple's self-driving car safety report was pointed out to be \"too simple\", with only seven pages of content and few safety-related key content.</p><p>Basically, it can be said that since the establishment of Apple's self-driving project, as long as it appears on the news page, it is basically not good news.</p><p>In the second half of 2019, the \"Titan Project\" finally had good news: in June, Apple officially acquired Drive.ai, a \"mom-and-pop store\" co-founded by AI big coffee Andrew Ng and his wife, to inject fresh vitality into its autonomous driving project.</p><p>Then, there was another long period of silence, and Apple's self-driving progress disappeared from the public view again until January 2020, when new progress appeared.</p><p>On January 29th, local time, some media found that Apple published a paper on Arxiv.org. The paper pointed out that Apple scientist Yichuan Charlie Tang and his team are using a method to simulate the driving scene of vehicles merging and gradually create a more diversified simulation environment.</p><p>Tang and co-authors wrote, \"We demonstrated this technique in a challenging multi-agent lane change simulation. In this simulated environment, the experimental goals must interact and negotiate with other vehicles to successfully merge on the road. While the environment starts with simple road conditions, we increase its complexity by repeatedly adding increasingly diverse factors to the agent'zoo' as we advance in training. Qualitatively, we found that through self-training, experimental targets automatically learn interesting behaviors such as defensive driving, overtaking, giving way, and using signal lights to communicate with other agents. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01883ebc73afc1f71d865339da65ecbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Schematic diagram of lane change simulation</p><p>As the researchers explained, in the field of autonomous driving, lane-changing behavior is considered a complex operation because it requires the driving system to accurately predict the intent and react accordingly. Traditional solutions make assumptions and rely on manually coded behavior, but these flexibility-limited and vulnerable strategies do not handle edge situations well, such as several cars trying to merge into the same lane at the same time. In contrast to rule-based systems, reinforcement learning directly learns policies through repeated interactions with the environment.</p><p>Although it is still being tested in a simulated environment, Apple's autonomous driving has finally shown some decent progress.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, many executives of Apple's autonomous driving have left one after another. In February, Apple's veteran self-driving member Benjamin Lyon officially left. It is reported that Benjamin Lyon is one of the founders of Apple's self-driving car project and once served as Apple's senior director of self-driving hardware.</p><p>During his 21 years at Apple, he worked on the research and development of Touch ID, a fingerprint recognition technology for the iPhone, before joining Apple's self-driving car team. In the same month, Jaime Waydo, who is in charge of the self-driving car safety and regulation team, left Apple, and the engineer was praised by Apple CEO Cook as \"the mother of all artificial intelligence projects\". In the following months, three more senior executives left one after another.</p><p>According to relevant sources, Apple's chip division led by Johny Srouji is also involved in automotive research and development. Since 2018, Srouji's team has been developing custom ARM-based chips focused primarily on machine learning processing for driving underlying autonomous vehicle systems.</p><p>Apple has been testing autonomous technology on public roads since 2017. The cars tested by the company averaged 118 miles in 2019 until a human safety driver needed control. According to the California Department of Vehicles, that number is up from 1 mile per drop-off in 2018. According to the California Department of Vehicles, the company owns 66 vehicles. This is an increase from 55 licensed vehicles as of mid-2018.</p><p><b>No Apple in the bustle of Robotaxi</b></p><p>In the past two years, Robotaxi has been in the limelight in the field of autonomous driving, and many domestic and foreign enterprises have laid out on it.</p><p>On September 26, 2019, Baidu launched Robotaxi service to the public in Changsha, Hunan Province; On August 5, 2019, Didi Chuxing announced that its autonomous driving division had been upgraded to an independent company, focusing on autonomous driving research and development, product application and related business expansion. It is understood that RoboTaxi is also one of the main businesses developed by Didi Autonomous Driving Company. As a domestic travel service provider, Didi seems to have innate advantages in this field; Pony.ai is the first company to launch Robotaxi services in both China and the United States. Except Beijing, it currently provides services to the public in Guangzhou, China, Irvine, California, and Fremont.</p><p>In Beijing, Pony's Robotaxi service scope will cover the 150 square kilometers core operation area of Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, including about 150 stations. The operation hours will last from 8:30 am to 22:30 pm, including morning and evening peak hours and night hours.</p><p>From 2017 to 2018, BMW, Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and other car manufacturers joined forces with Intel, Nvidia, Google, Lyft and other companies to enter RoboTaxi, and this is also the hottest period of autonomous driving.</p><p>In April 2019, Tesla founder Elon Musk even publicly stated that he would establish Tesla RoboTaxi Network in 2020. As part of Tesla Network's \"RoboTaxi\" service, owners of vehicles can earn up to $30,000 a year. Musk has set his sights on the autonomous mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) market. In a conference call after Tesla's rate hike announcement, Musk noted: RoboTaxi could eventually push the company to a market cap of $500 billion.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that, just like the promise of \"full autonomous driving by 2020\", most companies have set 2025 as the target year for full realization of RoboTaxi. In this way, it is somewhat difficult for Apple to catch up with this wave.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DiAEY2Hho3JCnzymaNuzZA\">AI前线</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9c6038c922a501076310ac125cdbb5","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DiAEY2Hho3JCnzymaNuzZA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132950320","content_text":"七年过去了，苹果汽车还是个 PPT 产品吗？\n\n屡被拒绝的苹果\n近日，根据路透社报道，苹果公司正在与宁德时代、比亚迪就电动汽车项目的电池供应进行初步洽谈。\n更早之前，苹果被传出与现代、日产等传统车企洽谈合作，这场谈判成为了业界的关注焦点，更有传言称苹果实际上已经与现代的子公司签署了相关协议，但可惜最终没有什么结果。\n据华尔街见闻报道，早在 2018 年 5 月，苹果就曾与德国汽车巨头大众汽车进行谈判，以生产基于 T6 Transporter 商用车的自动员工穿梭车——该计划将导致为大众市场开发苹果汽车。但在一系列测试崩溃和员工泄密之后，两家公司之间的合作关系被扼杀了，关于此事的披露几乎没有。\n自 2014 年推出泰坦计划，明确要进军汽车行业之后，苹果公司在推进自身计划和寻求合作伙伴上屡屡受挫，导致七年过去了，外界还没有看到太多实质性的进展。苹果分析师郭明錤最近声称，鉴于谈判陷入僵局，Apple Car 可能要到 2028 年或更晚才会推出，因此预计要等很长时间才能在路上看到它。\n据知情人士透露，苹果公司拥有一个小团队，专门研发一款新车，希望最终能和特斯拉竞争，但是开发工作还处在初期。苹果要推出一款自动驾驶的电动车至少需要 5 年的时间，因为研发工作还处于初期阶段。结合上述分析师的预测，要等到这款苹果汽车着实还需要一些时日。\n裁员、高管频繁离职\n苹果造车怎么这么难？\n自苹果于 2014 年推出“泰坦（Project Titan）”自动驾驶计划之后很长一段时间里都没有什么太大的动静。2018 年，让这个项目进展曝光的竟然是一起泄密事件，而相关文件显示，当时苹果自动驾驶项目拥有超过 5000 名员工，其中约 2700 人为核心员工。\n到了 2019 年 1 月，“泰坦计划”又被传出裁员的消息，有 200 余名员工在此次事件中被裁。\n不同以往的是，苹果公司的一名发言人承认了裁员的消息，并表示公司仍然相信自动驾驶领域存在机会：\n\n “在苹果，我们拥有一个非常有才华的团队，他们致力于自主系统和相关技术。2019 年，他们将把工作重点放在几个关键领域，一些团队成员将被转移到公司其他部门的项目，在那里，他们将支持整个苹果的机器学习和其他项目。但是，我们仍然相信，自主系统存在巨大的机遇，苹果有独特的能力做出贡献，这是有史以来最雄心勃勃的机器学习项目。”\n\n前文也已提到，苹果的自动驾驶计划早在 2014 年就萌芽了，据称当时有 1000 多名员工在位于旧金山库比蒂诺的苹果总部从事项目工作。但是由于内部争斗、领导问题和其他隐私问题影响到了项目，导致苹果裁员，解聘了数百名该项目员工。\n一个月后，苹果自动驾驶汽车的安全报告又被指出“过于简单”，内容仅有短短的 7 页，而安全相关的重点内容则更是少之又少。\n基本上可以说，苹果自动驾驶项目成立以来，只要出现在新闻页面上，基本都不是什么好消息。\n到了 2019 年的下半年，“泰坦计划”终于有了还算不错的消息传来：6 月，苹果正式收购了 AI 大咖吴恩达及其妻子共同创立的“夫妻店”——Drive.ai，为自己的自动驾驶项目注入新鲜活力。\n随后，又是一段漫长的沉寂期，苹果自动驾驶的进展就这样再次消失在了公众的视野里，直到 2020 年 1 月，新的进展出现了。\n当地时间 1 月 29 日，有媒体发现：苹果在 Arxiv.org 上发表了一篇论文，论文指出，苹果科学家 Yichuan Charlie Tang 及其团队正在使用一种方法，模拟车辆并道的驾驶场景，并逐步创建更加多样化的模拟环境。\nTang 及其合著者写道：“我们在具有挑战性的多智能体变道模拟中演示了这项技术。在该模拟环境中，实验目标必须与其他车辆进行交互和协商才能成功地在道路上进行合并。虽然环境从简单路况开始，但随着训练的深入，我们通过向智能体’zoo’反复添加越来越多样化的因素来增加其复杂性。定性地说，我们发现通过自我训练，实验目标会自动学习有趣的行为，例如防御性驾驶、超车、让道以及使用信号灯与其他智能体交流。”\n\n变道模拟示意图\n正如研究人员所解释的那样，在自动驾驶领域，变道行为被认为是复杂的操作，因为这需要驾驶系统准确地预测意图并做出相应的反应。传统的解决方案会做出假设并依赖于手动编码的行为，但是这些灵活度受限且脆弱的策略无法很好地处理边缘情况，例如几辆车试图同时合并到同一车道。与基于规则的系统相比，强化学习通过与环境的反复交互来直接学习策略。\n虽然还在模拟环境中测试，但是苹果自动驾驶总算是展示了一些像样的进展。\n今年以来，苹果自动驾驶的多位高管又相继离职。2 月份，苹果自动驾驶元老成员 Benjamin Lyon 正式离开。据悉，Benjamin Lyon 是苹果自动驾驶汽车项目的创始人之一，曾担任苹果自动驾驶硬件高级总监。\n在苹果公司工作的 21 年中，他从事了 iPhone 的指纹识别技术 Touch ID 研发工作，此后他加入苹果自动驾驶汽车团队。同月，负责自动驾驶汽车安全和监管团队的 Jaime Waydo 离开苹果公司，而这位工程师被苹果 CEO 库克赞赏为“所有人工智能项目之母”。随后几个月内，陆续又出走了 3 位高管。\n据有关人士透露，苹果公司由 Johny Srouji 领导的芯片部门也参与了汽车研发。从 2018 年开始， Srouji 的团队就一直在开发基于 Arm 的定制化芯片，主要集中于机器学习处理，用于驱动底层自动驾驶汽车系统。\n从 2017 年开始，苹果就开始在公共道路上测试自主技术。公司测试的汽车在 2019 年平均行驶 118 英里，直到人类安全驾驶员需要控制为止。据加利福尼亚车辆管理局称，这一数字比 2018 年每次撒手驾驶的里程 1 英里有所增加。据加利福尼亚车辆管理局统计，公司拥有 66 辆汽车。这比截至 2018 年年中的 55 辆许可车辆有所增加。\nRobotaxi 的热闹中，没有苹果的身影\n近两年，Robotaxi 在自动驾驶领域风头正盛，国内外众多企业在此上布局。\n2019 年 9 月 26 日，百度在湖南省长沙市向公众推出 Robotaxi 服务；2019 年 8 月 5 日，滴滴出行宣布旗下自动驾驶部门升级为独立公司, 专注于自动驾驶研发、产品应用及相关业务拓展。据了解，RoboTaxi 也是滴滴自动驾驶公司主要发展的业务之一，作为国内出行服务提供商，滴滴在该领域似乎有着先天的优势；小马智行则是首家在中美均推出 Robotaxi 服务的公司，除北京外，目前在中国广州、美国加州尔湾以及弗里蒙特市向公众提供服务。\n在北京，小马智行 Robotaxi 服务范围将覆盖北京经济技术开发区 150 平方公里核心运营区域，包括约 150 个站点，运营时间从早 8:30 持续至晚 22:30，囊括早、晚高峰以及夜间时段。\n2017 至 2018 年，宝马、大众、通用、福特等车厂联合英特尔、英伟达、谷歌、Lyft 等等公司纷纷入局 RoboTaxi，而这也是自动驾驶最火热的一个时段。\n2019 年 4 月，特斯拉创始人埃隆·马斯克更是公开表示：要在 2020 年建立特斯拉 RoboTaxi 网络，作为特斯拉网络“RoboTaxi”服务的一部分，运营车辆的车主每年可以获得高达 30,000 美元的收入。马斯克已将目光投向 自主移动即服务（MaaS） 市场，在特斯拉宣布加息后的一次电话会议中，马斯克指出：RoboTaxi 最终可能将公司推向 市值 5000 亿美元。\n值得一提的是：就像“2020 年实现全面自动驾驶”的承诺一样，大部分公司把 2025 年设置为全面实现 RoboTaxi 的目标年限。如此看来，苹果要赶上这波浪潮是有些难度了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187222291,"gmtCreate":1623756192113,"gmtModify":1703818231257,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187222291","repostId":"1116108105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184149199,"gmtCreate":1623692112911,"gmtModify":1704208902191,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184149199","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186889979,"gmtCreate":1623484520191,"gmtModify":1704204916987,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186889979","repostId":"2142197209","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142197209","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623423107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142197209?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Michigan consumer confidence rose in June compared to the previous month, while inflation expectations unexpectedly declined.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142197209","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周五公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数6月初值显示，美国消费者情绪在6月初升幅超过预期。\n根据数据，6月的消费者信心指数初值为86.4，相较5月终值82.9出现明显上升，也高于84.4的市场预期。此外，同","content":"<p>The University of Michigan's preliminary June consumer confidence index, released on Friday, showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in early June.</p><p>According to data, the preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index in June was 86.4, a significant increase from the final reading of 82.9 in May, and also higher than the market expectation of 84.4. In addition, the economic conditions index released at the same time rose slightly to 90.6 from 89.4 in May, while the consumer expectations index rose to 83.8 from 78.8 in May.</p><p>Regarding inflation, this survey shows that consumers expect inflation to be 4.0% in the coming year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from 4.6% in the previous month; The expected inflation rate for the next five years is 2.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from 3.0% last month.</p><p>However, it should be noted that one-year and five-year inflation expectations are still at their highest levels since 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f775be5dbf6b1ae3d012b4636fb0c2\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For reference, the break-even inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations in the US Treasury market, temporarily ended its upward trend since the beginning of the year in mid-May. Currently, the 5-year term is roughly in the range of 2.4 to 2.5%, while the 10-year term is in the range of 2.3 to 2.4%.</p><p>Richard Curtin, head of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey, pointed out in releasing the data that the U.S. economy is expected to grow stronger, and the unemployment rate is expected to record a net decrease, with the number of consumers reaching a record high. However, despite a decline in inflation expectations in early June, rising inflation remains a top concern for consumers.</p><p>Richard Curtin also stated that the negative feedback from surveyed consumers regarding housing, automobile, and household durable goods prices in this survey was the worst since the record low in November 1974.</p><p>In its analysis following the data release, financial blog ZeroHedge pointed out that the rise in the consumer confidence index this month far exceeded market expectations, driven by a significant increase in the consumer expectations index.</p><p>In an article following the data release, Bloomberg pointed out that consumer sentiment is more optimistic as travel restrictions are lifted, temperatures warm, and health problems ease. At the same time, as economic development accelerates, policymakers and investors are closely monitoring inflation expectations.</p><p>ben's</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michigan consumer confidence rose in June compared to the previous month, while inflation expectations unexpectedly declined.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichigan consumer confidence rose in June compared to the previous month, while inflation expectations unexpectedly declined.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 22:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The University of Michigan's preliminary June consumer confidence index, released on Friday, showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in early June.</p><p>According to data, the preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index in June was 86.4, a significant increase from the final reading of 82.9 in May, and also higher than the market expectation of 84.4. In addition, the economic conditions index released at the same time rose slightly to 90.6 from 89.4 in May, while the consumer expectations index rose to 83.8 from 78.8 in May.</p><p>Regarding inflation, this survey shows that consumers expect inflation to be 4.0% in the coming year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from 4.6% in the previous month; The expected inflation rate for the next five years is 2.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from 3.0% last month.</p><p>However, it should be noted that one-year and five-year inflation expectations are still at their highest levels since 2011.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f775be5dbf6b1ae3d012b4636fb0c2\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For reference, the break-even inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations in the US Treasury market, temporarily ended its upward trend since the beginning of the year in mid-May. Currently, the 5-year term is roughly in the range of 2.4 to 2.5%, while the 10-year term is in the range of 2.3 to 2.4%.</p><p>Richard Curtin, head of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey, pointed out in releasing the data that the U.S. economy is expected to grow stronger, and the unemployment rate is expected to record a net decrease, with the number of consumers reaching a record high. However, despite a decline in inflation expectations in early June, rising inflation remains a top concern for consumers.</p><p>Richard Curtin also stated that the negative feedback from surveyed consumers regarding housing, automobile, and household durable goods prices in this survey was the worst since the record low in November 1974.</p><p>In its analysis following the data release, financial blog ZeroHedge pointed out that the rise in the consumer confidence index this month far exceeded market expectations, driven by a significant increase in the consumer expectations index.</p><p>In an article following the data release, Bloomberg pointed out that consumer sentiment is more optimistic as travel restrictions are lifted, temperatures warm, and health problems ease. At the same time, as economic development accelerates, policymakers and investors are closely monitoring inflation expectations.</p><p>ben's</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632805\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632805","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142197209","content_text":"周五公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数6月初值显示，美国消费者情绪在6月初升幅超过预期。\n根据数据，6月的消费者信心指数初值为86.4，相较5月终值82.9出现明显上升，也高于84.4的市场预期。此外，同时发布的经济现况指数从5月的89.4小升至90.6，而消费者预期指数则是从5月的78.8升至83.8。\n通胀方面，本次调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀的预期值为4.0%，较上月的4.6%下降了0.6个百分点；而对未来五年通胀的预期值为2.8%，较上月的3.0%下降了0.2个百分点。\n不过需要注意的是，一年及五年通胀预期目前仍然处于2011年以来的高位。\n\n作为参照，衡量美债市场对通胀预期的盈亏平衡通胀率年初以来的上行趋势已在5月中旬暂告终结，目前5年期大体位于2.4~2.5%区间，而10年期则位于2.3~2.4%区间。\n密歇根大学消费者信心调查的负责人Richard Curtin在公布数据时指出，美国经济预期会出现更强增长，预计失业率将录得净降低的消费者人数创下历史新高。但是，尽管通胀预期在6月初有所下降，通胀率上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题。\nRichard Curtin同时还表示，本次调查中，受访消费者对住房、汽车、家庭耐用品价格的负面反馈是1974年11月历史新低以来最差水平。\n金融博客ZeroHedge在数据出炉之后的分析中指出，本月消费者信心指数的升幅远超市场预期，原因在于消费者预期指数的大幅上升提供了动力。\n而彭博在数据公布后的文章当中指出，随着旅行限制的取消，气温回暖以及健康问题的弱化，消费者的情绪更加乐观。与此同时，随着经济发展加速，政策制定者以及投资者都在密切关注通胀预期。\nben'ci","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186880890,"gmtCreate":1623484487710,"gmtModify":1704204916016,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186880890","repostId":"1105134625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105134625","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623140058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105134625?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 16:14","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The market closure schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105134625","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","content":"<p>With the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaching, the closure arrangements for major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14 (Monday) due to Queen's Birthday, and will reopen as usual from June 15 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>US, UK, and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival, also known as the Dragon Boat Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, or the Heavenly Festival, originated from the worship of natural celestial phenomena and evolved from dragon worship in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven constellations of the Azure Dragon soar in the south, occupying the most \"central\" position of the year, as the line of the fifth line of the Qian Hexagram of the I Ching says: \"The dragon flies in the sky.\" Its origins cover ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and it contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, it has mixed various folk customs into one, and the content of festivals is rich. Dragon boat racing and eating zongzi (sticky rice dumplings) are two major customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and continue to this day.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival created by ancient people to pay homage to the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet from the State of Chu during the Warring States period, committed suicide by jumping into the Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also regarded the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also claims to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E, and Jie Zitui. In general, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the fact that ancient people chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragons in the sky\" to worship the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, injecting the summer season trend of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The market closure schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The market closure schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 16:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaching, the closure arrangements for major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14 (Monday) due to Queen's Birthday, and will reopen as usual from June 15 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>US, UK, and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival, also known as the Dragon Boat Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, or the Heavenly Festival, originated from the worship of natural celestial phenomena and evolved from dragon worship in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven constellations of the Azure Dragon soar in the south, occupying the most \"central\" position of the year, as the line of the fifth line of the Qian Hexagram of the I Ching says: \"The dragon flies in the sky.\" Its origins cover ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and it contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, it has mixed various folk customs into one, and the content of festivals is rich. Dragon boat racing and eating zongzi (sticky rice dumplings) are two major customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and continue to this day.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival created by ancient people to pay homage to the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet from the State of Chu during the Warring States period, committed suicide by jumping into the Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also regarded the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also claims to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E, and Jie Zitui. In general, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the fact that ancient people chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragons in the sky\" to worship the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, injecting the summer season trend of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105134625","content_text":"临近中国传统节日端午节假期，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。港股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。澳股：6月14日（周一）因 Queen's Birthday 休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。沪股通、深股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。港股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。背景介绍：端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。仲夏端午，苍龙七宿飞升于正南中天，处于全年最“正中”之位，即如《易经·乾卦》第五爻的爻辞曰：“飞龙在天”。其起源涵盖了古老星象文化、人文哲学等方面内容，蕴含着深邃丰厚的文化内涵，在传承发展中杂糅了多种民俗为一体，节俗内容丰富。扒龙舟与食粽是端午节的两大礼俗，这两大礼俗在中国自古传承，至今不辍。端午节，本是上古先民创立用于拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪的节日。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188695046,"gmtCreate":1623430899285,"gmtModify":1704203660616,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188695046","repostId":"1185815929","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185815929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623381455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185815929?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is \"temporary\" inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185815929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve can indeed easily control high inflation, as the market believes.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Close the magic box? Bank of America disagrees: \"History shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.\" US inflation has skyrocketed again, but the market seems fearless, with both US stocks and Treasuries surging. Investors seem to have begun to believe the Federal Reserve's rhetoric: inflation is only temporarily rising.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chief economist Michelle Meyer, however, stated bluntly: We don't buy it!</p><p>In her opinion,<b>As labor shortages and signs of inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of the Federal Reserve and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the foundation for more sustained inflation in the future is now being laid.</b></p><p>Bank of America stated that while U.S. inflation hit new highs in April and May, the market not only failed to recognize the inflation risks implied by a series of indicators, but also had a long list of excuses for ignoring inflation signs:</p><p>1. The labor shortage will disappear in the fall, when unemployment benefits will decrease, childcare will be easier to find, and concerns about contracting the coronavirus at work will also subside. 2. The bottlenecks in commodity production are caused by special shocks. As production recovers and demand shifts from goods to services, bottlenecks will gradually disappear; 3. As the impact of past supply disruptions subsides, labor shortages ease, and commodity demand growth slows, trade bottlenecks will also be alleviated. 4. The price increase is purely temporary and targets specific industries. As supply recovers, the upward trend will also fade; 5. By definition, any aspect of price inflation is a temporary rise because the output gap still exists, while sustained price pressures require the gap to disappear. 6. Salary increases mainly occur in lower-paying jobs. This is a good thing because it helps narrow the income gap; 7. In recent years, the link between wage levels and inflation has weakened. We should still celebrate, not lament, rising wages; 8. By definition, any aspect of wage growth is temporary because the unemployment rate is still too high to generate sustained wage pressure; 9. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations index has surged, but this is an overreaction to the obvious rise in food and energy prices; When these two prices fall, inflation expectations will also subside; 10. Historically, inflation expectations have only risen after real inflation has remained high for a period of time; The recent rise must have been a fluke; 11. The break-even inflation rate is only rising moderately. If there really is a problem, the bond market will tell us everything. 12. Ignoring rough surveys on inflation expectations, surveys of professional economists still believe that inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's target in the long run. Bank of America also pointed out that the most important point is that<b>The market believes that \"there is no need to worry about inflation being too high, because the Federal Reserve can do everything it can to rate hike to cool it down.\"</b></p><p>In response, the financial blog Zero Hedge sarcastically remarked: \"The Federal Reserve is very successful; it can not only use rate hike to cool inflation, but also cause the US stock market to collapse within 15 minutes.\"</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the market's views above still have some merit. So, what is Bank of America worried about?</p><p>Meyer believes that it is unreasonable to consider all recent inflation problems as \"temporary\". The most crucial point is,<b>These \"temporary\" pressures may last for several months and may become an inherent factor in the psychology of inflation.</b></p><p>She also stated that this possibility becomes extremely high, given that U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities have already indicated through words and actions that they want the economy to overheat and inflation to rise in the coming years.</p><p>Bank of America also disagrees with the claim that \"the Federal Reserve can easily close Pandora's box of high inflation.\"</p><p>We have never had sustained high inflation in recent decades.<b>However, history shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.</b>Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has pledged that rate hike will arrive later than usual and will only rate hike if they believe that higher inflation is already entrenched in the U.S. economy.</p><p>This means that the Federal Reserve's current policy strategy is making rate hike increasingly difficult. However, if an unexpected event occurs and the rate hike signal comes earlier than the Fed's current hints, then it will be too late for the market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is \"temporary\" inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America slaps the Federal Reserve in the face: Where is \"temporary\" inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 11:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve can indeed easily control high inflation, as the market believes.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Close the magic box? Bank of America disagrees: \"History shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.\" US inflation has skyrocketed again, but the market seems fearless, with both US stocks and Treasuries surging. Investors seem to have begun to believe the Federal Reserve's rhetoric: inflation is only temporarily rising.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chief economist Michelle Meyer, however, stated bluntly: We don't buy it!</p><p>In her opinion,<b>As labor shortages and signs of inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of the Federal Reserve and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the foundation for more sustained inflation in the future is now being laid.</b></p><p>Bank of America stated that while U.S. inflation hit new highs in April and May, the market not only failed to recognize the inflation risks implied by a series of indicators, but also had a long list of excuses for ignoring inflation signs:</p><p>1. The labor shortage will disappear in the fall, when unemployment benefits will decrease, childcare will be easier to find, and concerns about contracting the coronavirus at work will also subside. 2. The bottlenecks in commodity production are caused by special shocks. As production recovers and demand shifts from goods to services, bottlenecks will gradually disappear; 3. As the impact of past supply disruptions subsides, labor shortages ease, and commodity demand growth slows, trade bottlenecks will also be alleviated. 4. The price increase is purely temporary and targets specific industries. As supply recovers, the upward trend will also fade; 5. By definition, any aspect of price inflation is a temporary rise because the output gap still exists, while sustained price pressures require the gap to disappear. 6. Salary increases mainly occur in lower-paying jobs. This is a good thing because it helps narrow the income gap; 7. In recent years, the link between wage levels and inflation has weakened. We should still celebrate, not lament, rising wages; 8. By definition, any aspect of wage growth is temporary because the unemployment rate is still too high to generate sustained wage pressure; 9. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations index has surged, but this is an overreaction to the obvious rise in food and energy prices; When these two prices fall, inflation expectations will also subside; 10. Historically, inflation expectations have only risen after real inflation has remained high for a period of time; The recent rise must have been a fluke; 11. The break-even inflation rate is only rising moderately. If there really is a problem, the bond market will tell us everything. 12. Ignoring rough surveys on inflation expectations, surveys of professional economists still believe that inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's target in the long run. Bank of America also pointed out that the most important point is that<b>The market believes that \"there is no need to worry about inflation being too high, because the Federal Reserve can do everything it can to rate hike to cool it down.\"</b></p><p>In response, the financial blog Zero Hedge sarcastically remarked: \"The Federal Reserve is very successful; it can not only use rate hike to cool inflation, but also cause the US stock market to collapse within 15 minutes.\"</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the market's views above still have some merit. So, what is Bank of America worried about?</p><p>Meyer believes that it is unreasonable to consider all recent inflation problems as \"temporary\". The most crucial point is,<b>These \"temporary\" pressures may last for several months and may become an inherent factor in the psychology of inflation.</b></p><p>She also stated that this possibility becomes extremely high, given that U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities have already indicated through words and actions that they want the economy to overheat and inflation to rise in the coming years.</p><p>Bank of America also disagrees with the claim that \"the Federal Reserve can easily close Pandora's box of high inflation.\"</p><p>We have never had sustained high inflation in recent decades.<b>However, history shows that once inflation rises, it is difficult to control it without triggering a recession.</b>Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has pledged that rate hike will arrive later than usual and will only rate hike if they believe that higher inflation is already entrenched in the U.S. economy.</p><p>This means that the Federal Reserve's current policy strategy is making rate hike increasingly difficult. However, if an unexpected event occurs and the rate hike signal comes earlier than the Fed's current hints, then it will be too late for the market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185815929","content_text":"美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n\n美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞：通胀嘛，只是暂时走高而已。\n然而，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言：我们不买账！\n在她看来，随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服，未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。\n美国银行表示，在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际，市场非但没有意识到一系列指标所暗示的通胀风险，反而还有一长串对通胀迹象视而不见的借口：\n\n 1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失，届时失业福利将减少，儿童保育更好找，对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退；\n\n\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖，需求从商品转向服务，瓶颈就将逐渐消失；\n\n\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退，劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速，贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解；\n\n\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨，而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升，涨势也将消退；\n\n\n 5、从定义出发，价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高，因为产出缺口仍旧存在，而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失；\n\n\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事，因为这有助于缩小收入差距；\n\n\n 7、近年来，薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝，而非哀叹工资上涨；\n\n\n 8、从定义出发，薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长，因为失业率仍旧太高，无法产生持续的薪资压力；\n\n\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升，但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应；当这两大价格走低时，通胀预期也会消退；\n\n\n 10、从历史上看，只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后，通胀预期才会走高；最近的上涨一定是侥幸；\n\n\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升，如果真的存在问题，债市会告诉我们一切；\n\n\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查，对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为，长期来看，通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n\n美国银行还指出，最重要的一点在于，市场相信“不要担心通胀过高，因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息，以此来冷却通胀”。\n对此，金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道：美联储行得很，不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀，还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。\n不过值得注意的是，市场的上述观点，多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么，美国银行在担心什么？\nMeyer认为，若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”，这并不合情理。最关键的地方是，这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月，并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。\n她还称，考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明，他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高，上述可能性就变得非常之大。\n对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法，美国银行也并不认同：\n\n 近几十年来，我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n 但历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制。\n\n此外，美联储已经承诺，加息将比常态情况下来得更晚，且只有当他们相信更高的通胀已经根植于美国经济之中时才会加息。\n这也就意味着，美联储当前的政策策略使得加息变得愈发困难，但如果有意外发生，加息信号来得比美联储目前的暗示还要早，那么对于市场而言，一切就已经太晚了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183414844,"gmtCreate":1623340597688,"gmtModify":1704201374508,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183414844","repostId":"1174161709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174161709","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623329027,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174161709?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 20:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A terrible shock may arrive in September! New Bond King: Massive quantitative easing severely distorts the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174161709","media":"腾讯美股  ","summary":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型","content":"<p><i>The U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program has extended the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers the self-employed, part-time, and casual workers, as well as the Mixed Earner Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program, which provides support for those who are self-employed and have mixed incomes. All these plans will expire on September 6 this year. The new debt king, Gonglak, predicted that the economy would then suffer a \"major shock\" because people's discretionary income would be significantly reduced.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the restart in the post-pandemic era has been slow, and on the other hand, the federal government's fiscal stimulus has caused the US economy to be \"severely distorted\" in the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Two-Line Capital.</p><p>The notorious \"bond king\" pointed out in a webcast on Tuesday that countless businesses, large and small, across the United States are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to keep their companies running and expand. Although \"a large number of positions are vacant, they cannot be filled in a timely manner, all because the federal government is competing with private companies.\" Two-Line Capital manages more than $140 billion in investments, and Gunlach is clearly referring to the overly generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than ninety-minute webcast, he also spoke about his many other views on the economy in the post-pandemic era.</p><p><b>Inflation expectations</b></p><p>Gunlach stated that although inflation is currently rising rapidly, this may only be temporary. Currently, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventory levels are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of these are likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"</p><p>The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures long-term changes in the sales prices of goods and services across the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rise will last. Gunlach predicted that even if prices continue to rise, the index's rise may slow down.</p><p><b>Distorted department</b></p><p>“We’re not really seriously studying it right now; it’s actually some special areas of the economy, like used cars,” Gunlach analyzed. “The prices of these goods have almost doubled in the past year.” He also recently discovered that used trucks are now priced almost the same as new trucks, and in fact, they are almost out of stock across the United States. “This situation is clearly unsustainable,” Gunlach added, adding that these high prices are clearly “insufficient to create an anti-inflationary trend.”</p><p>Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gunlach pointed out that the national housing inventory has now fallen to a level not seen in many years, and in some areas, there are no homes for sale. He said that in many places, the number of real estate agents is even ten times that of the homes they sell, \"which is not good news for brokerages.\"</p><p>Demand for residential construction and renovation materials remained high, directly contributing to the explosion in timber prices, joining the ranks of other commodity prices that skyrocketed, but Gunlach believed that these problems had probably peaked.</p><p>Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates remain low. \"Although the recovery in all sectors of the economy is underway and has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of people returning to work has been very slow. Gunlach predicts that \"unless the pandemic recurs,\" the shift back to work will peak by the end of summer.</p><p>Even so, business operations will probably never be the same again. \"Many people have expressed their desire to spend more time working from home. Virtual technology is so advanced now, and reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can actually improve efficiency by eliminating a lot of communication time.\"</p><p><b>Overseas stocks and the US dollar</b></p><p>For many years prior, the U.S. stock market had consistently outperformed overseas stock markets. However, the gap between the two has been narrowing recently. “Non-U.S. stocks have begun to perform on par with U.S. stocks, no longer allowing the latter to outperform them,” Gunlach pointed out. He added that if the dollar starts to weaken, the situation could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He recently began investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.</p><p>“There are strong indications that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,” Gunlach added, adding that he would temporarily maintain a neutral stance on the dollar in the short term.</p><p>In the long run, the eventual weakening of the US dollar is an almost irreversible trend, given that the US trade and budget deficits have now \"doubled from what we once thought were bad levels.\" After Americans received their stimulus checks from the government, many used them to buy products, many of which were manufactured in Asia, which only further widened the trade deficit.</p><p>\"Retail investors have recently emerged as a dark horse with astonishing strength, which is actually a distortion, and its root lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"</p><p><b>The \"impact\" of unemployment benefits</b></p><p>During the pandemic, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week inevitably increased significantly, and this figure has not yet returned to normal levels. While unemployment rates in various states have begun to normalize, truly normalizing them is a \"delusion,\" Gunlach said, because federal stimulus benefits continue to be distributed.</p><p>The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extended the time people were able to receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covered the self-employed, part-time, and casual workers, and the Mixed Earner Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program provided support for those who were self-employed and mixed earners. All these plans will expire on September 6 this year. Gunlach predicted that the economy would then suffer a \"major shock\" because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.</p><p>This shock may reverse some of the current astonishing trends, such as the severe scarcity of housing and cars. Gunlach said this is perhaps \"the strongest basis for believing that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon—but it also means that the economy could suffer a major reversal as a result.\"</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A terrible shock may arrive in September! New Bond King: Massive quantitative easing severely distorts the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA terrible shock may arrive in September! New Bond King: Massive quantitative easing severely distorts the economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>The U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program has extended the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers the self-employed, part-time, and casual workers, as well as the Mixed Earner Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program, which provides support for those who are self-employed and have mixed incomes. All these plans will expire on September 6 this year. The new debt king, Gonglak, predicted that the economy would then suffer a \"major shock\" because people's discretionary income would be significantly reduced.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the restart in the post-pandemic era has been slow, and on the other hand, the federal government's fiscal stimulus has caused the US economy to be \"severely distorted\" in the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Two-Line Capital.</p><p>The notorious \"bond king\" pointed out in a webcast on Tuesday that countless businesses, large and small, across the United States are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to keep their companies running and expand. Although \"a large number of positions are vacant, they cannot be filled in a timely manner, all because the federal government is competing with private companies.\" Two-Line Capital manages more than $140 billion in investments, and Gunlach is clearly referring to the overly generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than ninety-minute webcast, he also spoke about his many other views on the economy in the post-pandemic era.</p><p><b>Inflation expectations</b></p><p>Gunlach stated that although inflation is currently rising rapidly, this may only be temporary. Currently, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventory levels are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of these are likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"</p><p>The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures long-term changes in the sales prices of goods and services across the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rise will last. Gunlach predicted that even if prices continue to rise, the index's rise may slow down.</p><p><b>Distorted department</b></p><p>“We’re not really seriously studying it right now; it’s actually some special areas of the economy, like used cars,” Gunlach analyzed. “The prices of these goods have almost doubled in the past year.” He also recently discovered that used trucks are now priced almost the same as new trucks, and in fact, they are almost out of stock across the United States. “This situation is clearly unsustainable,” Gunlach added, adding that these high prices are clearly “insufficient to create an anti-inflationary trend.”</p><p>Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gunlach pointed out that the national housing inventory has now fallen to a level not seen in many years, and in some areas, there are no homes for sale. He said that in many places, the number of real estate agents is even ten times that of the homes they sell, \"which is not good news for brokerages.\"</p><p>Demand for residential construction and renovation materials remained high, directly contributing to the explosion in timber prices, joining the ranks of other commodity prices that skyrocketed, but Gunlach believed that these problems had probably peaked.</p><p>Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates remain low. \"Although the recovery in all sectors of the economy is underway and has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of people returning to work has been very slow. Gunlach predicts that \"unless the pandemic recurs,\" the shift back to work will peak by the end of summer.</p><p>Even so, business operations will probably never be the same again. \"Many people have expressed their desire to spend more time working from home. Virtual technology is so advanced now, and reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can actually improve efficiency by eliminating a lot of communication time.\"</p><p><b>Overseas stocks and the US dollar</b></p><p>For many years prior, the U.S. stock market had consistently outperformed overseas stock markets. However, the gap between the two has been narrowing recently. “Non-U.S. stocks have begun to perform on par with U.S. stocks, no longer allowing the latter to outperform them,” Gunlach pointed out. He added that if the dollar starts to weaken, the situation could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He recently began investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.</p><p>“There are strong indications that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,” Gunlach added, adding that he would temporarily maintain a neutral stance on the dollar in the short term.</p><p>In the long run, the eventual weakening of the US dollar is an almost irreversible trend, given that the US trade and budget deficits have now \"doubled from what we once thought were bad levels.\" After Americans received their stimulus checks from the government, many used them to buy products, many of which were manufactured in Asia, which only further widened the trade deficit.</p><p>\"Retail investors have recently emerged as a dark horse with astonishing strength, which is actually a distortion, and its root lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"</p><p><b>The \"impact\" of unemployment benefits</b></p><p>During the pandemic, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week inevitably increased significantly, and this figure has not yet returned to normal levels. While unemployment rates in various states have begun to normalize, truly normalizing them is a \"delusion,\" Gunlach said, because federal stimulus benefits continue to be distributed.</p><p>The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extended the time people were able to receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covered the self-employed, part-time, and casual workers, and the Mixed Earner Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program provided support for those who were self-employed and mixed earners. All these plans will expire on September 6 this year. Gunlach predicted that the economy would then suffer a \"major shock\" because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.</p><p>This shock may reverse some of the current astonishing trends, such as the severe scarcity of housing and cars. Gunlach said this is perhaps \"the strongest basis for believing that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon—but it also means that the economy could suffer a major reversal as a result.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ\">腾讯美股  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174161709","content_text":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。新债王冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n一方面是后疫情时代的重启步履迟缓，一方面是联邦政府的财政刺激，在双线资本创始人冈拉克（JeffreyGundlach）看来，两者交相作用，已经使得美国经济受到“严重扭曲”。\n这位鼎鼎大名的“债王”在周二的网络广播当中指出，全美层面，无数大大小小的企业都发现，想要招募到足够公司运转下去和扩大经营的人手正变得极端困难。虽然“为数众多的岗位都空缺着，但是却无法及时得到填补，这都是因为联邦政府在同私人企业竞争的缘故”。双线资本旗下管理着超过1400亿美元投资，冈拉克这里所指的，显然是过于慷慨大度的失业救济补贴。在周二长达九十多分钟的网络广播当中，他还谈到了自己对后疫情时代经济的许多其他看法。\n通货膨胀预期\n冈拉克表示，虽然通货膨胀现在正在急速抬头，但是这真的可能只是暂时性的。目前，食品价格高企，制造业库存水平处在近二十年来的最低点。“这些显然都不可能对通货膨胀造成下行的压力。”\n度量全美商品和服务销售价格长期变化的生产者价格指数（PPI）也一直在上涨，但是没有人知道这涨势会持续多久。冈拉克预言说，即便价格还会继续走高，但是指数的上涨速度可能将会放缓。\n被扭曲的部门\n“我们现在并没有真正认真去研究的，其实是经济当中的一些特殊领域，比如二手汽车。”冈拉克分析道，“这些商品的价格在过去一年时间里几乎翻了一番。”他最近还发现，现在二手卡车的价格已经和新卡车相去无几，而且事实上几乎是在全美范围内断货了。“这种局面显然是不可持久的。”冈拉克补充说，这些高企的价格显然“不足以形成反通货膨胀趋势”。\n住宅库存也是经济当中被“高度扭曲”的一个部门。冈拉克指出，现在全美住宅库存已经跌到了多年以来仅见的水平，在一些地区，甚至已经找不到待售的住宅了。他说，在许多地方，房地产经纪商的数量甚至要十倍于他们销售的住宅，“这对于经纪行来说可不是什么好消息”。\n住宅建筑和翻修材料的需求也居高不下，直接导致木材价格大爆炸，加入了其他商品价格暴涨的大军，但是冈拉克认为，这些麻烦可能已经见顶了。\n办公房地产价格还在持续暴跌，入住率持续保持低水平。“虽然经济各个领域当中的复苏都在进行当中，而且还导致了这些通货膨胀压力的出现”，但是大家回公司办公的进程却很迟缓。冈拉克预计说，“除非疫情出现反复”，不然到夏季结束的时候，回去办公的变化就会迎来峰值。\n不过即便如此，企业经营恐怕也不会再像以前那样了。“许多人都表示，希望多一点在家办公的日子，现在虚拟技术已经如此发达，而且现实已经证明，在一些情况下，因为去除了大量沟通的时间，在家上班反而能够提高效率。”\n海外股票与美元\n此前的许多年时间当中，美国股市的表现一直都要好于海外股市。不过近期以来，两者之间的差距正在缩小。“非美股票已经开始与美国股票表现并驾齐驱，不再让后者专美于前。”冈拉克指出，如果美元汇率开始走低，局面就可能变得对海外股票更加有利。他近期已经职业生涯第一次开始投资海外股市。\n“有充分的迹象显示，中期到长期之内，美元将会趋向疲软。”冈拉克补充道，只是短期之内，他会暂时对美元持中立立场。\n长期角度看来，美元汇率最终走低已经是近乎不可改变的趋势，毕竟美国的贸易赤字和预算赤字现在已经“较之我们曾经以为很糟糕的水平又翻了一番”。美国人从政府拿到他们的刺激支票之后，很多人都将其用于购买产品了，而这些产品当中许多都是在亚洲生产的，而这只能让贸易赤字进一步扩大。\n“散户投资者近来异军突起，强势惊人，其实同样是一种扭曲，而其根源就在于来自政府的可任意支配收入。”\n失业救济“冲击”\n在疫情期间，每周首度申报失业救济人数不可避免地大幅增加，而这一数据至今尚未恢复正常水平。各州的失业率虽然已经开始趋向常态，但是要真正正常化完全是“妄想”，冈拉克说，这是因为联邦刺激福利还在持续发放。\n联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n这一冲击也许会扭转目前一些令人瞠目结舌的势头，比如住宅和汽车的严重稀缺。冈拉克说，这也许是“认为通货膨胀将只是暂时性现象的最有力根据——不过，这同时也意味着经济可能因此遭遇重大反转”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180252874,"gmtCreate":1623208083798,"gmtModify":1704198388668,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180252874","repostId":"2142293923","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142293923","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623187875,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142293923?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 05:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines: IRS Requests Congressional Authorization to Obtain Crypto Market Data","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142293923","media":"新浪财经","summary":"Rettig指出，加密货币市场的价值现在超过2万亿美元。他表示，“大多数加密货币、虚拟货币的创设旨在远离监管雷达，国税局目前已向第三方发出传票，以获取有关加密货币用户的信息”。其表示，国税局正在积极参与民事和刑事执法，但也需要国会提供额外的工具和资源。美国和欧盟还将宣布建立旨在加强两地区半导体供应的伙伴关系。美国对外商品出口攀升至纪录最高。","content":"<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The Internal Revenue Service requested Congressional authorization to obtain crypto market data, prompting Bitcoin and others to decline in response.</b><b>2. The United States and the European Union will pledge to end the $18 billion tariff war initiated by Trump.</b><b>3. Creative Tax Avoidance: The report states that the actual income tax rates of billionaires like Bezos and Buffett are far lower than those of ordinary people.</b><b>4. Federal Reserve inflation gauge reformers warn of inflation expectations, saying policy shifts are imperative.</b><b>5. The US trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April due to a significant increase in exports of goods and services.</b><b>6. Oxford University researchers funded by Man Group claim their AI can predict stock price movements.</b><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/34/w500h334/20210609/253f-krhvrxt0024272.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Internal Revenue Service's request for Congressional authorization to obtain crypto market data prompted Bitcoin and others to respond with a decline.</b></p><p>Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Charles Rettig said at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday that the IRS needs more authority from Congress to regulate the cryptocurrency industry and requires the industry to strengthen user reporting.</p><p>Rettig stated, \"We are frequently challenged, and it would be crucial to obtain explicit congressional authorization to collect this information.\"</p><p>The Biden administration has proposed requiring cryptocurrency brokers, such as exchanges, to report customer information, including information about indirect foreign investors. In addition, companies are required to declare crypto assets worth more than $10,000 to the IRS when they receive them.</p><p>Rettig points out that the cryptocurrency market is now worth more than $2 trillion.</p><p>He stated, \"Most cryptocurrencies and virtual currencies are created to stay away from the regulatory radar, and the IRS has now issued subpoenas to third parties to obtain information about cryptocurrency users.\" Rettig did not identify the specific individual. It stated that the IRS is actively involved in civil and criminal law enforcement, but also needs additional tools and resources from Congress.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/61/w550h311/20210609/4207-krhvrxt0065471.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The United States and the European Union will pledge to end the $18 billion tariff war initiated by Trump.</b></p><p>It is reported that EU leaders and US President Biden will pledge to end the trade war and eliminate tariffs related to the steel and aluminum trade conflict by the end of the year at the EU-US summit on June 15.</p><p>According to the draft, Europe and the United States will commit to finding a solution to the aviation industry dispute by July 11. The draft content may be subject to change. The two sides had previously agreed to suspend aviation tariffs until July to facilitate a solution.</p><p>The draft also indicates that both sides will strive to eliminate tariffs imposed in the steel and aluminum trade dispute by December 1.</p><p>The United States and the European Union will also announce a partnership aimed at strengthening semiconductor supply in both regions. This will be part of the work of the Trade and Technology Committee, the EU-US cooperation platform on digital issues, and the two sides will formally reach an agreement at this summit.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/51f4-krhvrxs9900794.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Tax avoidance tactics: Report claims that the actual income tax rates of billionaires like Bezos and Buffett are far lower than those of ordinary people.</b></p><p>A report released Tuesday shows that some of the world's richest people—Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Carl...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Ican</a>Michael Bloomberg and George Soros pay only a small portion of their growing wealth in income tax, and in certain years they pay zero tax.</p><p>ProPublica, citing confidential data from thousands of wealthy individuals obtained from the Internal Revenue Service, reported that the net worth of the 25 richest Americans increased by a combined $401 billion between 2014 and 2018, but these individuals only paid a total of $13.6 billion in federal income taxes over those five years, \"equivalent to a real tax rate of only 3.4%.\"</p><p>In contrast, in recent years, the median annual household income in the United States has been about $70,000, the federal income tax rate has reached 14%, and the tax rate for the highest household income bracket is as high as 37%.</p><p>ProPublica points out that unlike most ordinary people whose income comes from traditional wages, billionaires often benefit from \"tax avoidance strategies that ordinary people cannot access.\" The report points out that their wealth is typically based primarily on the appreciation of stocks and real estate, and these assets are not considered taxable unless they are sold.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/89/w533h356/20210609/52a2-krhvrxt0029367.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Federal Reserve inflation gauge reformers warn of inflation expectations, saying policy shifts are imperative.</b></p><p>Economists who helped the Federal Reserve revise its approach to assessing long-term inflation expectations say current expectation levels mean the Fed needs to begin paving the way for a tapering of bond purchases.</p><p>When Brian Sack was the head of monetary and financial market analysis at the Federal Reserve nearly two decades ago, he and his colleagues advocated using forward-looking inflation expectations to help guide policy. Sack, now director of global economics at hedge fund DE Shaw & Co., said that if the 5-year/5-year forward break-even inflation rate rises further, it will be a problem for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>This indicator filters out short-term noise affecting consumer prices, which reached a seven-year high of 2.55% last month, meaning that the average annual increase in the price index targeted by the Federal Reserve is expected to exceed 2% between 2026 and 2030. In other words, in the eyes of investors, the Federal Reserve is actually achieving its 2% average inflation target.</p><p>Sack stated that the rebound in this indicator from the ultra-low levels at the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is favorable, but if it rises too much further, it could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve its dual goals of price stability and full employment.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/41/w550h291/20210609/d41d-krhvrxt0017686.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April due to a surge in exports of goods and services.</b></p><p>The U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April, with imports declining as exports of goods and services climbed.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Tuesday, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 8.2% to $68.9 billion in April, compared to market expectations of a deficit of $68.7 billion, while the trade deficit in March was revised upward to $75 billion.</p><p>U.S. exports rose to $205 billion in April, the highest level since January 2020, while imports fell to $273.9 billion.</p><p>Data shows a decline in imports, after consumer demand during the COVID-19 pandemic drove U.S. imports to record highs. Meanwhile, improving overseas economies have begun to drive demand for American products and services. U.S. merchandise exports climbed to a record high.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/917c-krhvrxt0031254.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Man Group-funded Oxford University researchers claim their AI can predict stock movements.</b></p><p>Researchers at Oxford University, funded by Man Group, say they have created a machine learning program that can predict how stock prices will move—achieving an 80% success rate in about 30 seconds of live trading.</p><p>Artificial intelligence experts at the Oxford-Man Institute for Quantitative Finance use the principles of natural language processing to mine liquidity data in limit trading orders.</p><p>This is a potential advancement for quick-money traders seeking market spotting. The algorithm can calculate the direction of price changes within 100 ticks (intraday cycles), which is equivalent to a trading time of about 30 seconds to 2 minutes, depending on market conditions.</p><p>“In multi-step prediction, we effectively built a model that can be trained to make predictions in a smaller time frame,” said Stefan Zohren, associate professor at the institute and co-author of the study. \"But we can feed this information back to the model itself, rolling forecasts to obtain longer-term predictions.\"</p><p>The algorithm is still in the testing phase. Anthony Ledford, chief scientist at Man AHL, said the algorithm is very attractive to hedge fund managers, who often break down large trading orders into multiple smaller trades.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines: IRS Requests Congressional Authorization to Obtain Crypto Market Data</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines: IRS Requests Congressional Authorization to Obtain Crypto Market Data\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 05:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The Internal Revenue Service requested Congressional authorization to obtain crypto market data, prompting Bitcoin and others to decline in response.</b><b>2. The United States and the European Union will pledge to end the $18 billion tariff war initiated by Trump.</b><b>3. Creative Tax Avoidance: The report states that the actual income tax rates of billionaires like Bezos and Buffett are far lower than those of ordinary people.</b><b>4. Federal Reserve inflation gauge reformers warn of inflation expectations, saying policy shifts are imperative.</b><b>5. The US trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April due to a significant increase in exports of goods and services.</b><b>6. Oxford University researchers funded by Man Group claim their AI can predict stock price movements.</b><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/34/w500h334/20210609/253f-krhvrxt0024272.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Internal Revenue Service's request for Congressional authorization to obtain crypto market data prompted Bitcoin and others to respond with a decline.</b></p><p>Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Charles Rettig said at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Tuesday that the IRS needs more authority from Congress to regulate the cryptocurrency industry and requires the industry to strengthen user reporting.</p><p>Rettig stated, \"We are frequently challenged, and it would be crucial to obtain explicit congressional authorization to collect this information.\"</p><p>The Biden administration has proposed requiring cryptocurrency brokers, such as exchanges, to report customer information, including information about indirect foreign investors. In addition, companies are required to declare crypto assets worth more than $10,000 to the IRS when they receive them.</p><p>Rettig points out that the cryptocurrency market is now worth more than $2 trillion.</p><p>He stated, \"Most cryptocurrencies and virtual currencies are created to stay away from the regulatory radar, and the IRS has now issued subpoenas to third parties to obtain information about cryptocurrency users.\" Rettig did not identify the specific individual. It stated that the IRS is actively involved in civil and criminal law enforcement, but also needs additional tools and resources from Congress.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/61/w550h311/20210609/4207-krhvrxt0065471.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The United States and the European Union will pledge to end the $18 billion tariff war initiated by Trump.</b></p><p>It is reported that EU leaders and US President Biden will pledge to end the trade war and eliminate tariffs related to the steel and aluminum trade conflict by the end of the year at the EU-US summit on June 15.</p><p>According to the draft, Europe and the United States will commit to finding a solution to the aviation industry dispute by July 11. The draft content may be subject to change. The two sides had previously agreed to suspend aviation tariffs until July to facilitate a solution.</p><p>The draft also indicates that both sides will strive to eliminate tariffs imposed in the steel and aluminum trade dispute by December 1.</p><p>The United States and the European Union will also announce a partnership aimed at strengthening semiconductor supply in both regions. This will be part of the work of the Trade and Technology Committee, the EU-US cooperation platform on digital issues, and the two sides will formally reach an agreement at this summit.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/51f4-krhvrxs9900794.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Tax avoidance tactics: Report claims that the actual income tax rates of billionaires like Bezos and Buffett are far lower than those of ordinary people.</b></p><p>A report released Tuesday shows that some of the world's richest people—Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Carl...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">Ican</a>Michael Bloomberg and George Soros pay only a small portion of their growing wealth in income tax, and in certain years they pay zero tax.</p><p>ProPublica, citing confidential data from thousands of wealthy individuals obtained from the Internal Revenue Service, reported that the net worth of the 25 richest Americans increased by a combined $401 billion between 2014 and 2018, but these individuals only paid a total of $13.6 billion in federal income taxes over those five years, \"equivalent to a real tax rate of only 3.4%.\"</p><p>In contrast, in recent years, the median annual household income in the United States has been about $70,000, the federal income tax rate has reached 14%, and the tax rate for the highest household income bracket is as high as 37%.</p><p>ProPublica points out that unlike most ordinary people whose income comes from traditional wages, billionaires often benefit from \"tax avoidance strategies that ordinary people cannot access.\" The report points out that their wealth is typically based primarily on the appreciation of stocks and real estate, and these assets are not considered taxable unless they are sold.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/89/w533h356/20210609/52a2-krhvrxt0029367.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Federal Reserve inflation gauge reformers warn of inflation expectations, saying policy shifts are imperative.</b></p><p>Economists who helped the Federal Reserve revise its approach to assessing long-term inflation expectations say current expectation levels mean the Fed needs to begin paving the way for a tapering of bond purchases.</p><p>When Brian Sack was the head of monetary and financial market analysis at the Federal Reserve nearly two decades ago, he and his colleagues advocated using forward-looking inflation expectations to help guide policy. Sack, now director of global economics at hedge fund DE Shaw & Co., said that if the 5-year/5-year forward break-even inflation rate rises further, it will be a problem for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>This indicator filters out short-term noise affecting consumer prices, which reached a seven-year high of 2.55% last month, meaning that the average annual increase in the price index targeted by the Federal Reserve is expected to exceed 2% between 2026 and 2030. In other words, in the eyes of investors, the Federal Reserve is actually achieving its 2% average inflation target.</p><p>Sack stated that the rebound in this indicator from the ultra-low levels at the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is favorable, but if it rises too much further, it could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve its dual goals of price stability and full employment.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/41/w550h291/20210609/d41d-krhvrxt0017686.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April due to a surge in exports of goods and services.</b></p><p>The U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year in April, with imports declining as exports of goods and services climbed.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Tuesday, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 8.2% to $68.9 billion in April, compared to market expectations of a deficit of $68.7 billion, while the trade deficit in March was revised upward to $75 billion.</p><p>U.S. exports rose to $205 billion in April, the highest level since January 2020, while imports fell to $273.9 billion.</p><p>Data shows a decline in imports, after consumer demand during the COVID-19 pandemic drove U.S. imports to record highs. Meanwhile, improving overseas economies have begun to drive demand for American products and services. U.S. merchandise exports climbed to a record high.<img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20210609/917c-krhvrxt0031254.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Man Group-funded Oxford University researchers claim their AI can predict stock movements.</b></p><p>Researchers at Oxford University, funded by Man Group, say they have created a machine learning program that can predict how stock prices will move—achieving an 80% success rate in about 30 seconds of live trading.</p><p>Artificial intelligence experts at the Oxford-Man Institute for Quantitative Finance use the principles of natural language processing to mine liquidity data in limit trading orders.</p><p>This is a potential advancement for quick-money traders seeking market spotting. The algorithm can calculate the direction of price changes within 100 ticks (intraday cycles), which is equivalent to a trading time of about 30 seconds to 2 minutes, depending on market conditions.</p><p>“In multi-step prediction, we effectively built a model that can be trained to make predictions in a smaller time frame,” said Stefan Zohren, associate professor at the institute and co-author of the study. \"But we can feed this information back to the model itself, rolling forecasts to obtain longer-term predictions.\"</p><p>The algorithm is still in the testing phase. Anthony Ledford, chief scientist at Man AHL, said the algorithm is very attractive to hedge fund managers, who often break down large trading orders into multiple smaller trades.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-09/doc-ikqcfnaz9938624.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-09/doc-ikqcfnaz9938624.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142293923","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美国国税局要求国会授权获取加密市场数据 比特币等应声下挫2、美国与欧盟将承诺结束特朗普发起的180亿美元关税战3、花式避税：报告称贝佐斯、巴菲特等巨富实际所得税率远低于普通民众4、美联储通胀指标改革者预警通胀预期水平 称政策转变势在必行5、美国4月份贸易逆差今年来首次收窄 因商品和服务出口额大增6、Man Group资助的牛津大学研究员声称其AI可以预测股票走势美国国税局要求国会授权获取加密市场数据 比特币等应声下挫美国国税局局长Charles Rettig周二在参议院财政委员会听证会上表示，国税局需要国会授予更多权力来监管加密货币行业，并要求该行业加强用户报告事宜。Rettig称，“我们经常受到挑战，如果能获得国会对收集这些信息的明确授权，将是至关重要的”。拜登政府提议要求交易所等加密货币经纪人报告客户的信息，包括间接外国投资者的信息。此外，还要求企业在收到价值超过10000美元的加密资产时对国税局申报。Rettig指出，加密货币市场的价值现在超过2万亿美元。他表示，“大多数加密货币、虚拟货币的创设旨在远离监管雷达，国税局目前已向第三方发出传票，以获取有关加密货币用户的信息”。Rettig未透露具体个人的身份。其表示，国税局正在积极参与民事和刑事执法，但也需要国会提供额外的工具和资源。美国与欧盟将承诺结束特朗普发起的180亿美元关税战据悉，欧盟领导人与美国总统拜登将在6月15日欧盟-美国峰会召开时承诺结束贸易战，并承诺年底前取消与钢铝贸易冲突相关的关税。根据草案，欧美将承诺在7月11日前找出航空业争端解决方案。草案内容还可能有修改。双方先前已同意暂停航空业关税到7月份，以促进解决方案的达成。另外草案显示，双方还将努力在12月1日前取消钢铝贸易争端中加征的关税。美国和欧盟还将宣布建立旨在加强两地区半导体供应的伙伴关系。这将是欧盟与美国的数字问题合作平台--贸易和技术委员会的部分工作内容，双方将在此次峰会上正式达成一致。花式避税：报告称贝佐斯、巴菲特等巨富实际所得税率远低于普通民众周二公布的一份报告显示，一些世界上最富有的人——杰夫-贝佐斯、埃隆-马斯克、沃伦-巴菲特、卡尔-伊坎、迈克尔-布隆伯格和乔治-索罗斯——缴纳的所得税仅占到他们不断增加的财富的一小部分，在某些特定年份纳税甚至为零。ProPublica援引从美国国税局获得的数千名富人的机密数据称，25位最富有的美国人的身价在2014年到2018年期间总共增加了4010亿美元，但这些人在这五年中总共只缴纳了136亿美元的联邦所得税，“相当于真实税率仅为3.4%”。相比之下，近年来美国家庭年收入的中位数约为70000美元，联邦所得税率达到14%，家庭收入最高一档的税率则高达37%。ProPublica指出，与大多数收入来自传统工资的普通民众不同，亿万富翁们往往受益于“普通人无法企及的避税策略”。报告指出，他们的财富通常主要基于股票和房地产的升值，除非出售这些资产，否则这些资产不被视为应纳税项。美联储通胀指标改革者预警通胀预期水平 称政策转变势在必行曾帮助美联储修改了长期通胀预期评估方式的经济学家表示，目前预期水平意味着美联储需要开始为缩减购债铺路。Brian Sack将近二十年前担任美联储理事会货币和金融市场分析主管的时候，与同事主张用前瞻性的通胀预期指标来帮助指引政策。现在担任对冲基金DE Shaw&Co．全球经济董事的Sack称，若5年/5年远期盈亏平衡通胀率进一步上升，对美联储而言将是个问题。这项指标会滤掉影响消费者价格的短期噪音，上月一度达到2.55%的七年高点，意味着在2026-2030年，被美联储作为目标的价格指数平均年涨幅料超过2%。也就是说，在投资者看来，美联储实际上正在实现2%的平均通胀目标。Sack表示，该指标从新冠疫情最初爆发时的超低水平反弹是有利的，但如果进一步上涨太多，就可能导致美联储更难实现物价稳定和充分就业的双重目标。美国4月份贸易逆差今年来首次收窄 因商品和服务出口额大增美国4月份的贸易逆差今年来首次收窄，因商品和服务出口额攀升而进口额下降。据美国商务部周二公布的数据，4月份美国商品和服务贸易逆差收窄8.2%，至689亿美元，市场预期为逆差687亿美元，而3月份贸易逆差上修至750亿美元。美国4月份出口额增长至2050亿美元，为2020年1月以来最高水平，而进口额下降至2739亿美元。数据显示进口回落，此前新冠疫情期间的消费者需求使美国进口迭创新高。同时，海外经济改善，开始推动对美国产品和服务的需求。美国对外商品出口攀升至纪录最高。Man Group资助的牛津大学研究员声称其AI可以预测股票走势Man Group资助的牛津大学研究员说，他们创建了一个机器学习程序，可以预测股价如何变动——在大约30秒的实况交易中取得80%的成功率。牛津-Man数量金融研究所的人工智能专家利用自然语言处理的原理，在限价交易指令中挖掘流动性数据。这对寻求市场踩点的快钱交易者来说是一个潜在的进步，该算法可以算出价格在100个tick（分时周期）内的变化方向，相当于大约30秒到2分钟的交易时间，具体取决于市场状况。“在多步预测中，我们有效地建立了一个模型，经过训练可以在较小时间范围内进行预测，”该研究所副教授、本项研究的共同作者Stefan Zohren说。“但我们可以将这些信息反馈给模型自身，滚动预测，以获得更长期的预测。”该算法仍然处于测试阶段。Man AHL的首席科学家Anthony Ledford表示，这个算法对对冲基金经理很有诱惑力，他们经常将大额交易指令分拆成多个较小的交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274383,"gmtCreate":1623147250942,"gmtModify":1704197044203,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274383","repostId":"1101949190","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101949190","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623147077,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101949190?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"White House: Must work with allies to ensure the supply of metals needed for electric vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101949190","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。","content":"<p>The White House said on Tuesday that for environmental and other reasons, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also establish a task force to determine where in the country minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed. It is unclear what impact this will have on existing electric vehicle mining projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major obstacle to Biden’s EV rollout plan, as domestic mines face broad regulatory hurdles and opposition from environmentalists.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>White House: Must work with allies to ensure the supply of metals needed for electric vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhite House: Must work with allies to ensure the supply of metals needed for electric vehicles\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The White House said on Tuesday that for environmental and other reasons, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also establish a task force to determine where in the country minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed. It is unclear what impact this will have on existing electric vehicle mining projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major obstacle to Biden’s EV rollout plan, as domestic mines face broad regulatory hurdles and opposition from environmentalists.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11fb5ef0b1cb032e12ea701b85e5650d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101949190","content_text":"美国白宫周二表示，出于环保和其他因素考虑，美国必须与盟友合作，以确保电动汽车电池所需的矿产供应，并在国内进行加工。拜登政府还将成立一个工作小组，确定用于电动汽车电池和其他技术的矿物可以在国内哪些地方生产和加工。目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。\n获得足够的铜、锂和其他原材料来生产电动汽车电池，是拜登电动汽车推广计划的一个主要障碍，因为国内矿场面临着广泛的监管门槛和环保人士反对。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"F":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274078,"gmtCreate":1623147230794,"gmtModify":1704197044687,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274078","repostId":"1179000628","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179000628","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623144281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179000628?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter or become a concentrated explosion point of US stock risk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179000628","media":"智通财经","summary":"2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。","content":"<p>Author: Yucheng Ho</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increase, U.S. stocks may pull back by 10%-15% in the next six months.</p><p>Given that corporate earnings in U.S. stocks beat estimates by as much as 20% over the past four quarters, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings picture in the second half of 2021 was relatively tough in comparison.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noted that during the pandemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituents achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely, the technology, healthcare, and utilities sectors.</p><p>The chart below FactSet (FDS) shows the expected record results for the second quarter of 2021, the best since the fourth quarter of 2009.</p><p><b>Tax hikes-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>On June 5th, the G7 finance ministers' meeting announced that it supported the proposal to impose the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase of corporate income tax will directly impact the profits of U.S. stocks, while the current technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rate and high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the most affected.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors adding leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>Third quarter or become a concentrated breaking point of U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the consensus estimate for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given that the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index is still at a high of about 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, the room for further upward movement of the US stock market is limited.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases the signal of reducing bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter or the time when the risk of U.S. stocks is concentrated.</p><p>If the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined as January 1, 2022, the high probability of outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy Stocks Still Have Attraction</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best performing sector in U.S. stock market trading this year, but there is plenty of upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>If you stretch the timeline, the share prices of energy producers have not yet recovered to the levels before the oil price collapse that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Such as Exxon Mobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving an upward revision of EPS growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. The percentage peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter or become a concentrated explosion point of US stock risk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter or become a concentrated explosion point of US stock risk\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yucheng Ho</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increase, U.S. stocks may pull back by 10%-15% in the next six months.</p><p>Given that corporate earnings in U.S. stocks beat estimates by as much as 20% over the past four quarters, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings picture in the second half of 2021 was relatively tough in comparison.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noted that during the pandemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituents achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely, the technology, healthcare, and utilities sectors.</p><p>The chart below FactSet (FDS) shows the expected record results for the second quarter of 2021, the best since the fourth quarter of 2009.</p><p><b>Tax hikes-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>On June 5th, the G7 finance ministers' meeting announced that it supported the proposal to impose the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase of corporate income tax will directly impact the profits of U.S. stocks, while the current technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rate and high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the most affected.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors adding leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>Third quarter or become a concentrated breaking point of U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the consensus estimate for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given that the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index is still at a high of about 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, the room for further upward movement of the US stock market is limited.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases the signal of reducing bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter or the time when the risk of U.S. stocks is concentrated.</p><p>If the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined as January 1, 2022, the high probability of outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy Stocks Still Have Attraction</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best performing sector in U.S. stock market trading this year, but there is plenty of upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>If you stretch the timeline, the share prices of energy producers have not yet recovered to the levels before the oil price collapse that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Such as Exxon Mobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving an upward revision of EPS growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. The percentage peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1179000628","content_text":"作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在2020年第一季度和第二季度实现了正收益和收入增长，即科技、保健以及公用事业行业。\n下图FactSet(FDS)显示了2021年第二季度预期的创纪录结果，这是自2009年第四季度以来最好的一次。\n加税——美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大。\n中信证券表示，若资本利得税若上调至39.6%，预计将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转。\n3季度或成为美股集中爆发点\n虽然市场对今年标普500盈利增速的一致预期已从4月中旬的27%上调至当前的34%，但鉴于目前标普指数动态估值仍处于22倍左右的高位。在无新的催化因素下，美股大市进一步上行的空间有限。\n相反，各类风险却在逐步加剧。若美联储于8月底明确释放削减购债的信号，且民主党于9月底前如期通过加税法案，则3季度下旬或是美股风险集中爆发的时间点。\n而如果资本利得税改的起始有效日最终确定为2022年1月1日，则“散户加杠杆”资金的大概率流出可能会在4季度对美股的表现造成负面影响。\n能源股仍具备吸引力\n在美国股市今年以来的交易中，能源股是表现最好的一个板块，但要弥补多年以来的大幅下跌，这个板块还有很大的上行空间。\n如拉长时间轴来看，能源生产商的股价尚未恢复到2014年夏季开始的油价大跌之前的水平。\n\n如埃克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)正在推动能源行业每股收益增长的上调。\n目前能源占标普500指数市值的比例仍然只有3%。这一比例在2014年8月至9月达到14%-15%的峰值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112844989,"gmtCreate":1622862810641,"gmtModify":1704192650542,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112844989","repostId":"1177749357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177749357","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622862513,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177749357?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple employees oppose returning to work in the office in internal letters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177749357","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，苹果公司的员工正在反对一项新政策，该政策要求他们从9月初开始，每周三天返回办公室。据媒体获得的一封内部信件显示，苹果员工们表示，他们希望采用一种更加灵活的方式，满足那些希望可以远程办公的员工们的","content":"<p>Recently, Apple employees are opposing a new policy that requires them to return to the office three days a week starting in early September. According to an internal letter obtained by the media, Apple employees said they wanted a more flexible approach to meet the needs of employees who wanted to work remotely. \"If we lose some of the inclusive principles that accompany flexible working policies, many of us will feel that we must choose between family, happiness, and full-time work before considering whether to become a member of Apple.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple employees oppose returning to work in the office in internal letters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple employees oppose returning to work in the office in internal letters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-05 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Apple employees are opposing a new policy that requires them to return to the office three days a week starting in early September. According to an internal letter obtained by the media, Apple employees said they wanted a more flexible approach to meet the needs of employees who wanted to work remotely. \"If we lose some of the inclusive principles that accompany flexible working policies, many of us will feel that we must choose between family, happiness, and full-time work before considering whether to become a member of Apple.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177749357","content_text":"近日，苹果公司的员工正在反对一项新政策，该政策要求他们从9月初开始，每周三天返回办公室。据媒体获得的一封内部信件显示，苹果员工们表示，他们希望采用一种更加灵活的方式，满足那些希望可以远程办公的员工们的需求。“如果再失去了与弹性工作政策相伴的一些包容性原则，那么我们中的许多人都会觉得，我们必须在家庭、幸福和全力以赴地工作之间做出选择，去思考是否要成为苹果的一员。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045103,"gmtCreate":1622830951302,"gmtModify":1704192106711,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112045103","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112042421,"gmtCreate":1622830881663,"gmtModify":1704192106226,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112042421","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118996573,"gmtCreate":1622711299592,"gmtModify":1704189436475,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118996573","repostId":"1193695784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193695784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622673021,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193695784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 06:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Times Angel starts offering today, with a first-hand entry fee of approximately HK$34,948.66","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193695784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月3日早间，时代天使发布公告，公司将于2021年6月3日-6月8日招股，公司拟全球发售1682.96万股，其中香港公开发售168.3万股，国际发售1514.66万股。发售价每股147港元-173港元","content":"<p>On the morning of June 3rd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a>It was announced that the company will offer shares from June 3 to June 8, 2021. The company plans to offer 16,829,600 shares globally, including 1,683,000 shares for public offering in Hong Kong and 15,146,600 shares for international offering. The Offer Price is HK$147-HK$173 per Share, board lot of 200 Shares, stock code 06699, is expected to be listed on 16 June 2021, and the sponsors are Goldman Sachs and CICC.</p><p><b>Tiger is expected to open at 11:30, the era of angels to play new [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Purchase portal</b></a><b>】</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/399b2b64367bd00b768416b0a8b96d6d\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot of 200 shares, the entrance fee is HK$34948.66.</p><p>The threshold of Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are about HK$ 5,242,299.63.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663671a11e152d16cfd1ab50649fd2ee\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is a leading provider of invisible orthotic solutions in China. According to the CIC Report, the invisible orthotic solutions market in China is highly concentrated, with the top two market players accounting for a total market share of 82.4% based on cases reached in 2020. According to the same information, the company's market share in the same year was approximately 41.0%.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the number of dental practitioners served by the Company increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019 and further to 19,900 in 2020. The number of closed cases of the Company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019 and further to 137,600 in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19f74e48d67ffa613b4b079573ac981\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Company generates revenue primarily through the provision of invisible orthotic solution services and a lesser amount of other services. According to the financial information, in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the company's revenue was RMB489 million (the same unit below), RMB646 million and RMB817 million, net profit was RMB58.2 million, RMB67.7 million and RMB151 million, respectively, with net profit margins of 11.9%, 10.5% and 18.5%, respectively, and the company's adjusted EBITDA (non-IFRS measurement) was RMB129 million, RMB175 million and RMB297 million, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e2bc33b5f923fc93eeed6faa8c3aa7\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Assuming an Offer Price of HK$160 per Share, being the mid-point of the indicative Offer Price range, and assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised, the Company expects the net proceeds from the Global Offering to be approximately HK$2,513 million.</p><p>Among them, about 39. 9% is used to provide funds for the construction of Wuxi Chuangmei Base; Approximately 18.3 percent is used to enhance the Company's R&D capabilities and to fund internal and cooperative R&D projects; Approximately 10.8% is used to develop flexible and scalable intelligent information technology systems to streamline and fully digitize all aspects of the company's operations and to deploy data intermediary platforms; About 10.5 percent was spent on expanding the company's internal sales team and providing training courses for sales personnel to improve sales effectiveness and efficiency.</p><p>In addition, approximately 9.6% was used to fund various marketing and branding activities to expand the user base and enhance the brand image; Approximately 6.2% will be used to optimize the Company's medical services by increasing the reach of offline medical services through the establishment of seven regional demonstration centers, providing regular offline training for dental practitioners on the application of the Company's solutions, and cooperating with renowned domestic higher education institutions to train medical talents through joint programs; And approximately 4.7% for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23394b5bdacff7733a7a94e8a316a4c8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Times Angel starts offering today, with a first-hand entry fee of approximately HK$34,948.66</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTimes Angel starts offering today, with a first-hand entry fee of approximately HK$34,948.66\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-03 06:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the morning of June 3rd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a>It was announced that the company will offer shares from June 3 to June 8, 2021. The company plans to offer 16,829,600 shares globally, including 1,683,000 shares for public offering in Hong Kong and 15,146,600 shares for international offering. The Offer Price is HK$147-HK$173 per Share, board lot of 200 Shares, stock code 06699, is expected to be listed on 16 June 2021, and the sponsors are Goldman Sachs and CICC.</p><p><b>Tiger is expected to open at 11:30, the era of angels to play new [</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Purchase portal</b></a><b>】</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/399b2b64367bd00b768416b0a8b96d6d\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot of 200 shares, the entrance fee is HK$34948.66.</p><p>The threshold of Group B is 30,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are about HK$ 5,242,299.63.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663671a11e152d16cfd1ab50649fd2ee\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is a leading provider of invisible orthotic solutions in China. According to the CIC Report, the invisible orthotic solutions market in China is highly concentrated, with the top two market players accounting for a total market share of 82.4% based on cases reached in 2020. According to the same information, the company's market share in the same year was approximately 41.0%.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the number of dental practitioners served by the Company increased from approximately 11,500 in 2018 to approximately 15,800 in 2019 and further to 19,900 in 2020. The number of closed cases of the Company increased from approximately 77,700 in 2018 to approximately 120,100 in 2019 and further to 137,600 in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19f74e48d67ffa613b4b079573ac981\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Company generates revenue primarily through the provision of invisible orthotic solution services and a lesser amount of other services. According to the financial information, in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the company's revenue was RMB489 million (the same unit below), RMB646 million and RMB817 million, net profit was RMB58.2 million, RMB67.7 million and RMB151 million, respectively, with net profit margins of 11.9%, 10.5% and 18.5%, respectively, and the company's adjusted EBITDA (non-IFRS measurement) was RMB129 million, RMB175 million and RMB297 million, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e2bc33b5f923fc93eeed6faa8c3aa7\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Assuming an Offer Price of HK$160 per Share, being the mid-point of the indicative Offer Price range, and assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised, the Company expects the net proceeds from the Global Offering to be approximately HK$2,513 million.</p><p>Among them, about 39. 9% is used to provide funds for the construction of Wuxi Chuangmei Base; Approximately 18.3 percent is used to enhance the Company's R&D capabilities and to fund internal and cooperative R&D projects; Approximately 10.8% is used to develop flexible and scalable intelligent information technology systems to streamline and fully digitize all aspects of the company's operations and to deploy data intermediary platforms; About 10.5 percent was spent on expanding the company's internal sales team and providing training courses for sales personnel to improve sales effectiveness and efficiency.</p><p>In addition, approximately 9.6% was used to fund various marketing and branding activities to expand the user base and enhance the brand image; Approximately 6.2% will be used to optimize the Company's medical services by increasing the reach of offline medical services through the establishment of seven regional demonstration centers, providing regular offline training for dental practitioners on the application of the Company's solutions, and cooperating with renowned domestic higher education institutions to train medical talents through joint programs; And approximately 4.7% for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23394b5bdacff7733a7a94e8a316a4c8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"06699":"时代天使"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193695784","content_text":"6月3日早间，时代天使发布公告，公司将于2021年6月3日-6月8日招股，公司拟全球发售1682.96万股，其中香港公开发售168.3万股，国际发售1514.66万股。发售价每股147港元-173港元，每手200股，股票代码06699，预期于2021年6月16日上市，保荐人为高盛以及中金。老虎预计11:30开放时代天使打新【申购入口】申购阶梯：每手200股，入场费34948.66港元。乙组门槛为3万股，申购所需资金约5242299.63港元。公司是中国领先的隐形矫治解决方案提供商。根据灼识咨询报告，中国的隐形矫治解决方案市场高度集中，按2020年的达成案例计量，前两大市场参与者的市场占有率总计为82.4%。据同一份资料显示，公司于同年的市场份额为约41.0%。于业绩纪录期，公司服务的牙科医生人数由2018年的约1.15万名增至2019年的约1.58万名，并进一步增至2020年的1.99万名。公司的达成案例由2018年的约7.77万个增至2019年的约12.01万个，并进一步增至2020年的13.76万个。公司主要通过提供隐形矫治解决方案服务及较少量的其他服务产生收入。财务资料显示，于2018年、2019年及2020年，公司的收入分别为人民币4.89亿元(单位下同)、6.46亿元及8.17亿元，净利润分别为5820万元、6770万元及1.51亿元，净利润率分别为11.9%、10.5%及18.5%，及公司的经调整EBITDA(非国际财务报告准则计量)分别为1.29亿元、1.75亿元及2.97亿元。假设发售价为每股股份160港元(即指示性发售价范围的中位数)，并假设超额配股权未获行使，公司预计全球发售所得款项净额将约为25.13亿港元。其中，约39 .9%用于为无锡市创美基地的建设提供资金;约18 .3%用于提升公司的研发能力以及为内部和合作研发项目提供资金;约10 .8%用于开发灵活及可扩展的智能信息技术系统以精简及全面数字化公司运营的所有方面，并部署数据中间平台;约10 .5%用于扩大公司的内部销售团队，并为销售人员提供培训课程以提高销售效能和效率。此外，约9 .6%用于为各种营销及品牌推广活动提供资金，以扩大用户基础并提升品牌形象;约6 .2%用于优化公司的医学服务，方式为通过增设七处区域示范中心提高线下医学服务的触达，同时定期为牙科医生提供针对公司解决方案应用的线下培训，以及与中国国内知名高等教育机构合作，通过联合计划培养医学人才;及约4 .7%用作营运资本及其他一般企业用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06699":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135733870,"gmtCreate":1622182860690,"gmtModify":1704181043661,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135733870","repostId":"1116732227","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116732227","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"点拾是由行业最专业的投资研究人组成，专注于中国和海外新兴领域的互联网，消费，金融等行业研究。我们的研究，已经获得行业内最优秀的投资者认可，特别是消费，科技互联网和跨境比较是我们的优势。我们相信自己的努力一定能为您的投资助力。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"点拾投资","id":"67","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6"},"pubTimestamp":1622166610,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116732227?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-28 09:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Are U.S. stocks about to peak? 16 Pictures Tell You Where the US Economy Is Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116732227","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：2021年由于担心美国国债收益率拐头向上，导致全球流动性的边际收紧，A股市场在春节后出现了较大调整，特别是一些“核心资产”跌幅高达40-50%。有趣的是，美国这边却一直在创新高。每隔一段时间，总","content":"<p><b>Introduction:</b>In 2021, the A-share market experienced a big adjustment after the Spring Festival, especially some \"core assets\" fell by as much as 40-50% due to fears that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States turned upward, resulting in a marginal tightening of global liquidity. Interestingly, the US side has been hitting new highs. Every once in a while, someone always stands up and bears US stocks. In the future, there must be someone with great luck who will accurately sing empty at the highest point, but this timing can't be replicated. Today, we share with you the in-depth report of US stocks from JP Morgan Asset Management. We have selected more than a dozen representative pictures, which can help you better understand the current situation of US stocks, hoping to help your investment!</p><p>Every year, U.S. stocks are about to peak. Indeed, since 2009, U.S. stocks have experienced various negative factors such as the European debt crisis, the U.S. Treasury Bond crisis, government strikes, Trump's coming to power, the presidential election farce, the COVID-19 epidemic, etc. But have U.S. stocks peaked? Nothing at all! As of the first quarter of 2021, the S&P 500 stood firmly at 3,973 points, corresponding to a valuation of 21.9 times, a corresponding dividend rate of 1.5%, and a 10-year Treasury Bond yield of 1.7% in the same period. Compared with the largest bubble in history, it is not the highest level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9130f894c4e24523ef211414bd4ca240\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The valuation P/E indicator is one of the most commonly used and simplest and effective indicators. Let's look at the following chart. The valuation level of S&P 500 at the end of the first quarter of 2021 is indeed higher than the standard variance of more than twice the historical average, but it is still lower than the era of science and technology stock bubble, while the yield level of Treasury Bond dropped significantly in the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0640981001425ee9637e4715bcfa3d2e\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Expected dividend growth for the S&P 500 in 2021, we see the best performance for raw materials, which are expected to grow by 11.7%, followed by medical, optional consumption, tech information, and mandatory consumption. On the other hand, shareholder repurchases in the financial, scientific and technological information and communication services sectors account for a relatively high proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0554790d1a8e760aa2b0dbce0e4b7851\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the style switch between growth and value in the United States. Last year, the growth style hung the value, and this year, the value style began to rise. Historically, the best performance of growth style relative to value is the 2000 Internet stock bubble, and the best performance of value style relative to growth is the 2007 real estate bubble. From the correlation between industry and GDP, the correlation between obligatory consumption, public utilities and optional consumption is the lowest, while the correlation between industry and finance is the highest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c28126ec53e8373f083b851f218e1b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture is particularly important, showing the performance of different styles since the beginning of this year. We see a significant rise in value style this year, outperforming growth style across the board (it is also understandable that style has finally seen a mean return). The top performer was the small-cap value style (and the worst-performing style over the past year), with a yield of 21.2%. The worst performer is the mid-cap growth style, with a yield of-0.6%. Last year's best-performing large-cap growth style also has a positive return of only 0.9% this year. From the previous low end of the market in March 2020, the best performance is the small-cap style, which ranks in the top three in terms of value, growth and equilibrium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4e027768c690cbc915d5b9cf16b683\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture has reference significance for our A-share long-term investment selection track. In the distribution of the market value of S&P 500, technology, consumption and medical care account for the highest proportion. Among them, technology accounts for 26.6%, optional consumption accounts for 12.4%, mandatory consumption accounts for 6.1% (the addition of the two corresponds to 18.5% consumption weight), and medical care accounts for 13%. The proportion of energy, raw materials, public utilities and real estate is below 3%. Additionally, the top performing sector this year through the end of the first quarter was energy, up 30.9%, followed by finance, up 16%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3125250698012b6e00418e10f50e41b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I also like the picture below. In a medium-term national movement, you just have to do more. The strongest national fortune in the United States is not in the past 40 years, but it still experienced the longest and largest two waves of bull market in the history of U.S. stocks in the past 40 years. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has fallen only eight times, and only three times in which it has fallen by more than 10%. However, in the middle of every year, there will be times when the index is lower than the level at the end of the previous year. In fact, as long as you do more every time the market falls, you can make huge profits!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a7dfad81d273ecdde6c1b7baaf5558\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's continue to look at it. In the past 30 years, there have been too many black swan crises in the market. It seems that once-in-a-century crises will happen every few years. In a long period of time, these crises are just small waves in a big wave, which can't stop the upward rise of US stocks at all. Whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Crisis, long-term capital failure, science and technology stock bubble, 9/11 terrorist attacks, or COVID-19 pandemic. The biggest crisis was the global financial crisis in 2008, but if you don't do anything, the index will hit a new high in four years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093d868b252120aa23f8fe48e7938ed8\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>COVID infection rates have dropped significantly, and the number of people getting vaccinated in the United States has increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f2e6731faf11ec0769978161707c167\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following picture, we can see that the soaring unemployment rate in the United States due to the COVID-19 epidemic is temporary, and then there is a sharp decline. Of course, the statistical caliber of unemployment rate has also changed. In fact, last year, many people's unemployment benefits exceeded the previous wage level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b497b3ead6a14cf90f80bb39c4afc3\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Can the turning point of Treasury Bond yield, which domestic investors are most concerned about, really continue to turn its head upward? We find that we have to follow the inflation level. If inflation really rises and stands firm, then the Treasury Bond yield will turn up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1efdb3691276c12b7e17a02c9a6b7263\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture is very interesting. Regarding when the global central banks will tighten, each time they predict that they will tighten next year, but in fact, they are putting more and more money. We saw a one-time release of liquidity in 2020, all of which exceeded the sum of previous years. 2020 also marked the most interest rate cuts by global central banks since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5508f5004ced9d0408b4d03d403fd02\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The global stock market performed before and after the vaccine was launched. We saw that the Chinese stock market performed best before the vaccine was launched, and it started to fall after the vaccine was launched, which was the worst performance. It can be understood that what affects China's stock market is the disturbance of liquidity factors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a81ab293dcd0218a03c000c6ded13\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The graph below represents the change in global consumption power. In 2000, 39 percent of global consumption growth came from the United States and 18 percent from Europe. By 2019, Chinese consumption accounted for 22% of global consumption growth, second only to the United States. Today, China accounts for 35% of global luxury consumption, not to mention that China's Double Eleven sales have surpassed the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff131d695fddc42cee3b01c4fce1e09f\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The global carbon neutrality goal, the overall carbon emissions will drop significantly in the future, and the proportion of alternative energy will increase significantly, which may be one of the most important investment themes in the next decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f24f1edd89067a211ac2d0fcf49761\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From 1999 to 2019, the annualized rate of return of various assets was 6.1% for S&P 500, 7.9% for high-yield bonds, 11.6% for REITs (but REITs in the United States are different from those in China), and 2.5% for individual investors who chased up and down...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86808f8e5b2326cfeb5c5ff5a0e864f9\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are U.S. stocks about to peak? 16 Pictures Tell You Where the US Economy Is Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre U.S. stocks about to peak? 16 Pictures Tell You Where the US Economy Is Now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-28 09:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Introduction:</b>In 2021, the A-share market experienced a big adjustment after the Spring Festival, especially some \"core assets\" fell by as much as 40-50% due to fears that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States turned upward, resulting in a marginal tightening of global liquidity. Interestingly, the US side has been hitting new highs. Every once in a while, someone always stands up and bears US stocks. In the future, there must be someone with great luck who will accurately sing empty at the highest point, but this timing can't be replicated. Today, we share with you the in-depth report of US stocks from JP Morgan Asset Management. We have selected more than a dozen representative pictures, which can help you better understand the current situation of US stocks, hoping to help your investment!</p><p>Every year, U.S. stocks are about to peak. Indeed, since 2009, U.S. stocks have experienced various negative factors such as the European debt crisis, the U.S. Treasury Bond crisis, government strikes, Trump's coming to power, the presidential election farce, the COVID-19 epidemic, etc. But have U.S. stocks peaked? Nothing at all! As of the first quarter of 2021, the S&P 500 stood firmly at 3,973 points, corresponding to a valuation of 21.9 times, a corresponding dividend rate of 1.5%, and a 10-year Treasury Bond yield of 1.7% in the same period. Compared with the largest bubble in history, it is not the highest level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9130f894c4e24523ef211414bd4ca240\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The valuation P/E indicator is one of the most commonly used and simplest and effective indicators. Let's look at the following chart. The valuation level of S&P 500 at the end of the first quarter of 2021 is indeed higher than the standard variance of more than twice the historical average, but it is still lower than the era of science and technology stock bubble, while the yield level of Treasury Bond dropped significantly in the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0640981001425ee9637e4715bcfa3d2e\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Expected dividend growth for the S&P 500 in 2021, we see the best performance for raw materials, which are expected to grow by 11.7%, followed by medical, optional consumption, tech information, and mandatory consumption. On the other hand, shareholder repurchases in the financial, scientific and technological information and communication services sectors account for a relatively high proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0554790d1a8e760aa2b0dbce0e4b7851\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the style switch between growth and value in the United States. Last year, the growth style hung the value, and this year, the value style began to rise. Historically, the best performance of growth style relative to value is the 2000 Internet stock bubble, and the best performance of value style relative to growth is the 2007 real estate bubble. From the correlation between industry and GDP, the correlation between obligatory consumption, public utilities and optional consumption is the lowest, while the correlation between industry and finance is the highest.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c28126ec53e8373f083b851f218e1b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture is particularly important, showing the performance of different styles since the beginning of this year. We see a significant rise in value style this year, outperforming growth style across the board (it is also understandable that style has finally seen a mean return). The top performer was the small-cap value style (and the worst-performing style over the past year), with a yield of 21.2%. The worst performer is the mid-cap growth style, with a yield of-0.6%. Last year's best-performing large-cap growth style also has a positive return of only 0.9% this year. From the previous low end of the market in March 2020, the best performance is the small-cap style, which ranks in the top three in terms of value, growth and equilibrium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4e027768c690cbc915d5b9cf16b683\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture has reference significance for our A-share long-term investment selection track. In the distribution of the market value of S&P 500, technology, consumption and medical care account for the highest proportion. Among them, technology accounts for 26.6%, optional consumption accounts for 12.4%, mandatory consumption accounts for 6.1% (the addition of the two corresponds to 18.5% consumption weight), and medical care accounts for 13%. The proportion of energy, raw materials, public utilities and real estate is below 3%. Additionally, the top performing sector this year through the end of the first quarter was energy, up 30.9%, followed by finance, up 16%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3125250698012b6e00418e10f50e41b\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I also like the picture below. In a medium-term national movement, you just have to do more. The strongest national fortune in the United States is not in the past 40 years, but it still experienced the longest and largest two waves of bull market in the history of U.S. stocks in the past 40 years. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has fallen only eight times, and only three times in which it has fallen by more than 10%. However, in the middle of every year, there will be times when the index is lower than the level at the end of the previous year. In fact, as long as you do more every time the market falls, you can make huge profits!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a7dfad81d273ecdde6c1b7baaf5558\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's continue to look at it. In the past 30 years, there have been too many black swan crises in the market. It seems that once-in-a-century crises will happen every few years. In a long period of time, these crises are just small waves in a big wave, which can't stop the upward rise of US stocks at all. Whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Crisis, long-term capital failure, science and technology stock bubble, 9/11 terrorist attacks, or COVID-19 pandemic. The biggest crisis was the global financial crisis in 2008, but if you don't do anything, the index will hit a new high in four years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093d868b252120aa23f8fe48e7938ed8\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>COVID infection rates have dropped significantly, and the number of people getting vaccinated in the United States has increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f2e6731faf11ec0769978161707c167\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following picture, we can see that the soaring unemployment rate in the United States due to the COVID-19 epidemic is temporary, and then there is a sharp decline. Of course, the statistical caliber of unemployment rate has also changed. In fact, last year, many people's unemployment benefits exceeded the previous wage level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b497b3ead6a14cf90f80bb39c4afc3\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Can the turning point of Treasury Bond yield, which domestic investors are most concerned about, really continue to turn its head upward? We find that we have to follow the inflation level. If inflation really rises and stands firm, then the Treasury Bond yield will turn up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1efdb3691276c12b7e17a02c9a6b7263\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following picture is very interesting. Regarding when the global central banks will tighten, each time they predict that they will tighten next year, but in fact, they are putting more and more money. We saw a one-time release of liquidity in 2020, all of which exceeded the sum of previous years. 2020 also marked the most interest rate cuts by global central banks since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5508f5004ced9d0408b4d03d403fd02\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The global stock market performed before and after the vaccine was launched. We saw that the Chinese stock market performed best before the vaccine was launched, and it started to fall after the vaccine was launched, which was the worst performance. It can be understood that what affects China's stock market is the disturbance of liquidity factors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5a81ab293dcd0218a03c000c6ded13\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The graph below represents the change in global consumption power. In 2000, 39 percent of global consumption growth came from the United States and 18 percent from Europe. By 2019, Chinese consumption accounted for 22% of global consumption growth, second only to the United States. Today, China accounts for 35% of global luxury consumption, not to mention that China's Double Eleven sales have surpassed the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff131d695fddc42cee3b01c4fce1e09f\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The global carbon neutrality goal, the overall carbon emissions will drop significantly in the future, and the proportion of alternative energy will increase significantly, which may be one of the most important investment themes in the next decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f24f1edd89067a211ac2d0fcf49761\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From 1999 to 2019, the annualized rate of return of various assets was 6.1% for S&P 500, 7.9% for high-yield bonds, 11.6% for REITs (but REITs in the United States are different from those in China), and 2.5% for individual investors who chased up and down...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86808f8e5b2326cfeb5c5ff5a0e864f9\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116732227","content_text":"导读：2021年由于担心美国国债收益率拐头向上，导致全球流动性的边际收紧，A股市场在春节后出现了较大调整，特别是一些“核心资产”跌幅高达40-50%。有趣的是，美国这边却一直在创新高。每隔一段时间，总是有人站出来看空美股。未来，一定有某个运气极好的人在最高点精准唱空，但是这种择时并不可复制。\n\n今天，我们和大家分享来自JP Morgan资产管理的美股深度报告，我们挑选了十几张比较有代表性的图片，从中能帮助大家更好的理解美股的现状，希望给大家的投资带来帮助！\n每年都有人美股要见顶了，确实过去2009年以来美股经历了欧债危机、美国国债危机、政府罢工、特朗普上台、总统选举闹剧、新冠疫情等等各种负面因素，但是美股见顶了吗？完全没有！截止2021年一季度，标普500稳稳站上3973点，对应估值21.9倍，对应分红率1.5%，同期10年期国债收益率水平1.7%。相比历史最大的泡沫看，都还不是最高水平。\n\n估值市盈率指标，是一个最常用也最简单有效的指标。我们看下面这张图，标普500在2021年一季度末的估值水平确实高于历史平均水平一倍以上的标准方差，不过依然低于科网股泡沫的时代，而同期国债收益率水平大幅降低。\n\n2021年标普500预期的分红增长，我们看到原材料表现最好，预计增长11.7%，其次是医疗、可选消费、科技信息和必选消费。另一方面，金融、科技信息、通信服务板块的股东回购占比较高。\n\n下面是美国成长和价值的风格切换，去年一整年是成长风格吊打价值，在今年开始价值风格开始抬头向上。历史上成长风格相对价值表现最好的是2000年科网股泡沫，价值风格相对成长表现最好是2007年房地产泡沫。从行业和GDP的相关性看，必选消费、公用事业、可选消费的相关性最低，工业和金融的相关性最高。\n\n下面这张图特别重要，是今年以来不同风格的表现。我们看到今年价值风格明显抬头，全面跑赢成长风格（也可以理解风格终于出现了均值回归）。表现最好的是小盘价值风格（也是过去一年表现最差的风格），收益率达到21.2%。表现最差的是中盘成长风格，收益率是-0.6%，去年表现最好的大盘成长风格，今年也只有0.9%的正收益。从2020年3月市场前一个低端看，表现最好的是小盘风格，无论是价值、成长、还是均衡都排名前三。\n\n下面这张图对我们A股长期投资选择赛道有借鉴意义。在标普500市值占比的分布中，占比最高的是科技、消费和医疗。其中科技占比26.6%，可选消费占比12.4%，必选消费占比6.1%（两者相加对应18.5%的消费权重），医疗占比13%。而能源、原材料、公用事业、房地产的占比都在3%以下。此外，今年截至到一季度末，表现最好的行业是能源，涨幅30.9%，其次是金融，涨幅16%。\n\n下面这张图我也很喜欢，在一个中期国运中，你只要做多就行了。美国国运最强的并不是过去40年，但是过去40年依然经历了美股历史上最长最大的两波牛市。1980年以来，标普500下跌的年份只有8次，跌幅超过10%的年份只有3次。但是每一年的年中都会出现指数低于上一年末水平的时候，其实只要在市场每一次下跌做多，就能赚到丰厚的收益！\n\n我们继续看，过去30年市场发生了太多的黑天鹅危机，似乎百年一遇的危机每隔几年都会发生，这些危机在长周期中，只是大浪潮中的小浪花，完全不能阻止美股的向上。无论是亚洲金融危机、长期资本倒闭、科网股泡沫、911恐怖袭击、还是新冠疫情。最大的一次危机是2008年全球金融危机，但拉长看你什么都不做，过个4年指数就会创新高。\n\n新冠疫情的感染率大幅下降，美国打疫苗的人数快速增加。\n\n下面这张图，我们看到美国因为新冠疫情出现的失业率飙升是暂时的，之后出现大幅下滑，当然失业率统计口径也发生了变化，事实上去年许多人拿的失业金补助都超过了之前的工资水平。\n\n国内投资者最关注的国债收益率拐点，是不是真的能持续拐头向上呢？我们发现还要跟着通胀水平走，如果通胀真的起来了，而且站稳了，那么国债收益率就会拐点向上。\n\n下面这张图很有意思，关于全球央行什么时间收紧，每一次都是预测下一年要收紧，但是事实上放钱越来越多。我们看到2020年一次性释放的流动性，都超过了前几年的总和。2020年也是2009年以来全球央行降息次数最多的一年。\n\n全球股市在疫苗推出前后表现，我们看到中国股市在疫苗推出前是表现最好的，到了疫苗推出后就开始下跌，是表现最差的。从中可以理解，影响中国股市的就是流动性因素扰动。\n\n下面这张图代表全球消费力的变化。在2000年的时候，全球消费增长有39%来自美国，18%来自欧洲。到了2019年，中国消费占全球消费增长的22%，仅次于美国。今天，中国已经占到全球奢侈品消费量的35%，更何况中国双十一销量总规模已经超越了美国的感恩节假期。\n\n全球碳中和目标，未来整个碳排放会出现大幅下降，替代能源的占比大幅提高，可能是未来十年最重要的投资主题之一。\n\n1999至2019年各类资产的年化收益率，标普500的年化收益率6.1%，高收益债年化收益率7.9%，REITs最高达到11.6%（不过美国的REITs和中国的不一样），追涨杀跌的个人投资者年化收益率2.5%……","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131481666,"gmtCreate":1621873971455,"gmtModify":1704363734721,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131481666","repostId":"2137397671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137397671","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621845251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137397671?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 16:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Switch to Small Companies! \"Bull Market Queen\" Wooden Sister Strategy Changed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137397671","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里？ARK投资策略的转变也向投资者抛出了一个问题。\n方舟投资管理公司（ARK）的总裁Cathie Wood降低持仓的集中度，出售规模更大、流动性更强的公司的股票，买入交易不那么活","content":"<p>Don't put eggs in a basket? The shift in ARK's investment strategy also throws a question at investors.</p><p>Cathie Wood, president of ARK Investment Management (ARK), reduces the concentration of her positions, selling shares of larger, more liquid companies and buying shares of smaller companies that are less actively traded.</p><p>This strategy fuels concerns that ARK is exhibiting a highly speculative investment propensity.</p><p>While ARK holds more than 10% of the same number of companies as it did three months ago, the concentration of holdings is declining, according to Bloomberg data.</p><p>ARK no longer holds more than 20% of any stock, with Compugen holding the largest share, but it has fallen to 17.2% from 21.3% earlier this year.</p><p>Now the shareholding ratio accounts for the second and third place respectively<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSYS\">Stratasys</a>and 2U at 16% and 15.9%, respectively.</p><p>Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and founder of The market research firm The Sevens Report, said:</p><p>It's an evolution — now ARK is a huge family of funds. That makes sense, especially for some smaller companies with market capitalizations that are reducing that concentration. The amount of money invested in a small company can change the results of the risk-reward calculation. ARK's total assets fell from $60 billion at its peak to $41 billion today, largely as investors worried about rising inflation and turning their sights to funds benefiting from the economic recovery sent stocks in its fund tumbling.</p><p>ARK's ETF funds have endured several weeks of turmoil, with fund performance down more than 32% from its peak on Feb. 12.</p><p>Since the end of February this year, this series of funds has actually lost only about $1.2 billion, and the outflow is still not much.</p><p>Nate geraci, president of ETF Store, a consulting firm, said this also reflects the confidence of ARK investors to some extent. Investors appear to be making long-term investments, he believes.</p><p>This means that fund managers have time to adjust positional positions rather than flustering for liquidation.</p><p>That doesn't mean ARK funds won't face outflows in the future, and if a long-term underperformance could sway some Wood fans.</p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA research, said:</p><p>I fear that investors who are relatively new to this strategy will see a sign of weakness and then withdraw when management increasingly favors some smaller companies. But because investors remain relatively loyal, they don't have to change their portfolios to meet their customers'redemption requirements. Investors may not want to make such a hasty decision, but if the ARK fund doesn't bounce back, then we could see some new investors pull their money.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Switch to Small Companies! \"Bull Market Queen\" Wooden Sister Strategy Changed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSwitch to Small Companies! \"Bull Market Queen\" Wooden Sister Strategy Changed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don't put eggs in a basket? The shift in ARK's investment strategy also throws a question at investors.</p><p>Cathie Wood, president of ARK Investment Management (ARK), reduces the concentration of her positions, selling shares of larger, more liquid companies and buying shares of smaller companies that are less actively traded.</p><p>This strategy fuels concerns that ARK is exhibiting a highly speculative investment propensity.</p><p>While ARK holds more than 10% of the same number of companies as it did three months ago, the concentration of holdings is declining, according to Bloomberg data.</p><p>ARK no longer holds more than 20% of any stock, with Compugen holding the largest share, but it has fallen to 17.2% from 21.3% earlier this year.</p><p>Now the shareholding ratio accounts for the second and third place respectively<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSYS\">Stratasys</a>and 2U at 16% and 15.9%, respectively.</p><p>Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and founder of The market research firm The Sevens Report, said:</p><p>It's an evolution — now ARK is a huge family of funds. That makes sense, especially for some smaller companies with market capitalizations that are reducing that concentration. The amount of money invested in a small company can change the results of the risk-reward calculation. ARK's total assets fell from $60 billion at its peak to $41 billion today, largely as investors worried about rising inflation and turning their sights to funds benefiting from the economic recovery sent stocks in its fund tumbling.</p><p>ARK's ETF funds have endured several weeks of turmoil, with fund performance down more than 32% from its peak on Feb. 12.</p><p>Since the end of February this year, this series of funds has actually lost only about $1.2 billion, and the outflow is still not much.</p><p>Nate geraci, president of ETF Store, a consulting firm, said this also reflects the confidence of ARK investors to some extent. Investors appear to be making long-term investments, he believes.</p><p>This means that fund managers have time to adjust positional positions rather than flustering for liquidation.</p><p>That doesn't mean ARK funds won't face outflows in the future, and if a long-term underperformance could sway some Wood fans.</p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA research, said:</p><p>I fear that investors who are relatively new to this strategy will see a sign of weakness and then withdraw when management increasingly favors some smaller companies. But because investors remain relatively loyal, they don't have to change their portfolios to meet their customers'redemption requirements. Investors may not want to make such a hasty decision, but if the ARK fund doesn't bounce back, then we could see some new investors pull their money.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631071\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9749d6ae014d072e09697e7b2d199a","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631071","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137397671","content_text":"不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里？ARK投资策略的转变也向投资者抛出了一个问题。\n方舟投资管理公司（ARK）的总裁Cathie Wood降低持仓的集中度，出售规模更大、流动性更强的公司的股票，买入交易不那么活跃的小公司股票。\n这一策略加剧了人们的担忧，即ARK表现出了一种极具投机性质的投资倾向。\n据彭博数据显示，虽然ARK持有10%以上股份的公司数量与三个月前相同，但持股的集中度在下降。\nARK不再持有任何股票超过20%的股份，持有最大比例的是Compugen，但已从今年早些时候的21.3%降至17.2%。\n现在持股比例占第二、三名的分别是Stratasys和2U，比例分别为16%和15.9%。\n前美林交易员、市场研究机构The Sevens Report的创始人Tom Essaye说：\n\n 这是一种进化——现在ARK是一个庞大的基金家族。这是有道理的，特别是对于一些市值较小的公司，他们正在降低这种集中度。投入到小公司中的资金会改变风险回报的计算结果。\n\nARK的资产总额从峰值时的600亿美元降至目前的410亿美元，主要是因为投资者担心通胀加剧，以及将目光转向受益于经济复苏的基金，导致其基金中的股票暴跌。\nARK的ETF基金经历了几周的动荡，基金表现较2月12日的峰值下跌了32%以上。\n今年2月底以来，这一系列基金实际上只损失了约12亿美元，流出的资金依然不多。\n咨询公司ETF Store总裁Nate geraci说这也在一定程度上反映了ARK投资者的信心。他认为，投资者似乎是在进行长期投资。\n这意味着基金经理有时间调整仓位头寸，而不是慌张地进行清算。\n这并不意味着ARK基金未来不会面临资金外流，如果长期不佳表现可能会动摇一些Wood的粉丝。\nCFRA research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示:\n\n 我担心，对这一策略比较陌生的投资者会看到疲软的表现，然后在管理层越来越青睐一些小公司时撤资。但由于投资者保持了相对的忠诚，他们不必改变投资组合以满足客户的赎回要求。投资者可能不想做出这样草率的决定，但如果ARK基金不反弹，那么我们可能会看到一些新投资者撤回资金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131481044,"gmtCreate":1621873933488,"gmtModify":1704363733422,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131481044","repostId":"2137133573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137133573","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621827990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137133573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 11:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns for global markets over the next year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137133573","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Sheets指出，金融危机后十年，经济风险倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是央行会如何刺激增长。但眼下我们面临一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。","content":"<p>A global pandemic has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has pulled the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis era, and the core issues dominating market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets recently took a long-term view, pointing out that the current economic and market situation is very different from the decade after the financial crisis.</p><p><b>The post-financial crisis era was characterized by fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks preemptively curbing inflation risks.</b></p><p>In fact, although we often associate \"easing policies\" with the previous cycle, the People's Bank of China's tightening in 2010, the European Central Bank's rate hike in 2011, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early measures to nip inflation in the bud. In contrast, currently, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, and strong consumption and investment have become the four major engines of the economy:</p><p>Fiscal policy is expanding at an unprecedented rate, consumption is healthy in the United States, Europe, and China, and savings levels are reaching record levels. We are also seeing a “hot capital expenditure cycle,” with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near historic lows.<b>However, central banks around the world remained calm in the face of strong growth.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the persistently high unemployment rate and the average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>Sheets concludes that this is a global economy where \"more acceleration and less braking\" are required.</b>This means that the risk situation facing the global economy is also different. Over the past decade, risks have tended to be downward, and the market's focus is on what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat the weakness.</p><p><b>Growth is now safe, so the core concerns that dominate the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressures? 4. Has the strong growth been reflected in prices? Sheets points out that if these are the \"concerns\" dominating the next 6-12 months, then they will not affect global markets \"evenly\" and will have different impacts on different markets and assets:</p><p>These concerns will be the primary and central issues for U.S. stocks and credit, as well as the emerging markets sector. But for Europe and Japan, problems such as overvaluation, high inflation, a shift in hardline policies, or a new corporate tax seem much more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually fast normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class often performs well in the early stages of a cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to ensure survival. However, as the market heats up, the additional growth does not mean that investors will receive any additional income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, credit performance is poor based on our latest 12-month forecast, and the credit risk premium appears high relative to other assets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns for global markets over the next year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns for global markets over the next year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A global pandemic has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has pulled the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis era, and the core issues dominating market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets recently took a long-term view, pointing out that the current economic and market situation is very different from the decade after the financial crisis.</p><p><b>The post-financial crisis era was characterized by fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks preemptively curbing inflation risks.</b></p><p>In fact, although we often associate \"easing policies\" with the previous cycle, the People's Bank of China's tightening in 2010, the European Central Bank's rate hike in 2011, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early measures to nip inflation in the bud. In contrast, currently, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, and strong consumption and investment have become the four major engines of the economy:</p><p>Fiscal policy is expanding at an unprecedented rate, consumption is healthy in the United States, Europe, and China, and savings levels are reaching record levels. We are also seeing a “hot capital expenditure cycle,” with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near historic lows.<b>However, central banks around the world remained calm in the face of strong growth.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the persistently high unemployment rate and the average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>Sheets concludes that this is a global economy where \"more acceleration and less braking\" are required.</b>This means that the risk situation facing the global economy is also different. Over the past decade, risks have tended to be downward, and the market's focus is on what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat the weakness.</p><p><b>Growth is now safe, so the core concerns that dominate the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressures? 4. Has the strong growth been reflected in prices? Sheets points out that if these are the \"concerns\" dominating the next 6-12 months, then they will not affect global markets \"evenly\" and will have different impacts on different markets and assets:</p><p>These concerns will be the primary and central issues for U.S. stocks and credit, as well as the emerging markets sector. But for Europe and Japan, problems such as overvaluation, high inflation, a shift in hardline policies, or a new corporate tax seem much more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually fast normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class often performs well in the early stages of a cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to ensure survival. However, as the market heats up, the additional growth does not mean that investors will receive any additional income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, credit performance is poor based on our latest 12-month forecast, and the credit risk premium appears high relative to other assets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137133573","content_text":"一场席卷全球的疫情改变了全球经济的面貌，史无前例的财政和货币政策刺激将全球经济一把拽出了后金融危机时期长期停滞的泥潭，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。\n摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师Andrew Sheets近日放眼长期，指出眼下的经济和市场情况，和后金融危机时代的那十年相比，已经大有不同。\n后金融危机时期的标签是财政紧缩、低投资、消费者去杠杆化，以及央行先发制人地遏制通胀风险：\n\n 事实上，尽管我们常常将“宽松政策”与上一个周期联系在一起，但中国央行在2010年就开始紧缩、欧洲央行2011年的加息以及美联储2015年的加息都是为了将通胀扼杀在萌芽状态的积极早期举措。\n\n反观眼下，财政宽松、低息贷款、强劲的消费和投资成为经济引擎上的四大气缸：\n\n 财政政策史无前例地扩张，美国、欧洲和中国的消费状况良好，储蓄水平达到创纪录水平。我们还看到了一个“炽热的资本支出周期”，公共和私人部门投资都在增加，同时全球实际利率仍接近历史低点。\n\n然而，面对强劲的增长，全球央行反应依然淡定。对于美联储来说，关注焦点依然是居高不下的失业率以及平均通胀目标，对于欧洲央行，焦点在于长期通胀依然低于预期。\nSheets总结道，这是一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济。这意味着全球经济面临的风险情况也有所不同。过去10年，风险往往倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是，央行会想出什么样的新宽松形式来对抗疲弱。\n现在增长无虞，因此主宰市场的核心忧虑在于:\n\n 1. 经济复苏是否会导致通胀?2. 这会否改变央行政策?3. 这是否会导致利润和税收压力?4. 强劲的增长是否已经体现在价格上了?\n\nSheets指出，如果这些是主导未来6-12个月的“担忧”，那么它们不会“平均”地作用于全球市场，对不同市场和资产，有不同的影响：\n\n 对于美国股票和信贷，以及新兴市场领域，这些担忧将成为首要和中心问题。但对欧洲和日本来说，过高估值、高通胀、强硬政策转变或新企业税等问题似乎要遥远得多。\n\n更热的周期也可能意味着更短的周期，以及异常快的正常化。Sheets认为，这种情况不利于信贷：\n\n 这一资产类别往往在周期初期和衰退后表现突出，此时增长复苏，企业专注于业务以保证生存。但随着市场升温，额外的增长并不意味着投资者能从公司债券中获得任何额外的收入。在跨资产的基础上，根据我们最新的12个月预测，信贷表现不佳，相对于其他资产，信贷风险溢价看起来很高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133921203,"gmtCreate":1621687006302,"gmtModify":1704361470796,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133921203","repostId":"1181267371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181267371","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621683714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181267371?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-22 19:41","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Musk and former US Treasury Secretary support cryptocurrencies, causing Bitcoin to rise rapidly.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181267371","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据外媒报道，有网友提问$特斯拉 $CEO埃隆·马斯克怎么看待那些因为加密货币而对其感到生气的人，马斯克回应称，真正的战斗是在法定货币和加密货币之间。总体而言，我支持后者。前美国财长萨默斯近日表示，数字货币类似于“数字黄金”，即使它们在经济中的重要性仍然有限。萨默斯认为，数字货币有机会成为一个新的形式，这种形式让人们安全地保有财富。他还认为，数字货币技术将继续存在，而且可能作为一种“数字黄金”而存在。","content":"<p>According to foreign media reports,<b>A netizen asked a question<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What does CEO Elon Musk think about those who are angry with him because of cryptocurrencies? Musk responded that the real battle is between Fiat Money and cryptocurrencies. Overall, I support the latter.</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers recently stated that digital currencies are similar to \"digital gold,\" even though their importance in the economy remains limited. Summers stated that digital currencies have become an alternative to gold for those seeking assets “independent of government control,” a category that gold had long belonged to. Summers believes that digital currencies have the opportunity to become a new form that allows people to safely hold their wealth. He also believes that digital currency technology will continue to exist, and may even exist as a form of \"digital gold\".</p><p>Bitcoin rose nearly $1,000 in the short term, briefly hitting an intraday high of $38,735 per coin, up more than 3% on the day.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk and former US Treasury Secretary support cryptocurrencies, causing Bitcoin to rise rapidly.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk and former US Treasury Secretary support cryptocurrencies, causing Bitcoin to rise rapidly.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-22 19:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to foreign media reports,<b>A netizen asked a question<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>What does CEO Elon Musk think about those who are angry with him because of cryptocurrencies? Musk responded that the real battle is between Fiat Money and cryptocurrencies. Overall, I support the latter.</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers recently stated that digital currencies are similar to \"digital gold,\" even though their importance in the economy remains limited. Summers stated that digital currencies have become an alternative to gold for those seeking assets “independent of government control,” a category that gold had long belonged to. Summers believes that digital currencies have the opportunity to become a new form that allows people to safely hold their wealth. He also believes that digital currency technology will continue to exist, and may even exist as a form of \"digital gold\".</p><p>Bitcoin rose nearly $1,000 in the short term, briefly hitting an intraday high of $38,735 per coin, up more than 3% on the day.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181267371","content_text":"据外媒报道，有网友提问特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克怎么看待那些因为加密货币而对其感到生气的人，马斯克回应称，真正的战斗是在法定货币（Fiat Money，菲亚特货币）和加密货币之间。总体而言，我支持后者。前美国财长萨默斯近日表示，数字货币类似于“数字黄金”，即使它们在经济中的重要性仍然有限。萨默斯表示，对于那些寻求“独立于政府控制”的资产的人来说，数字货币成为了黄金的替代品，而在此前的很长时间里，黄金一直属于这一类资产。萨默斯认为，数字货币有机会成为一个新的形式，这种形式让人们安全地保有财富。他还认为，数字货币技术将继续存在，而且可能作为一种“数字黄金”而存在。比特币短线走高近1000美元，一度刷新日内高位至38735美元/枚，日内涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":107698667,"gmtCreate":1620476947959,"gmtModify":1704344207832,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107698667","repostId":"1129750415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129750415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620468958,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129750415?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Boeing stock worth buying in 2021?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129750415","media":"猛兽财经","summary":"波音的股价自从在2019年3月达到历史最高点后，就受到了737 MAX停飞和疫情的双重打击，两年过去了至今还没恢复过来。展望未来，波音的复苏之路也不是很顺利，而且737 MAX仍在中国停飞，并面临着电","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Since reaching its all-time high in March 2019, its stock price has been hit by both the grounding of the 737 MAX and the pandemic, and it has not recovered even after two years. Looking ahead, Boeing's recovery path is not smooth, and the 737 MAX is still grounded in China and facing electrical system problems. In addition, the recovery of international travel has been slower than expected.</p><p>The market generally expects Boeing to achieve profitability and positive cash flow in fiscal year 2022, with revenue this year exceeding the level of 2019. However, according to Beast Finance, the market is still too optimistic. While the market's long-term expectations for passenger traffic growth and aircraft demand remain unchanged, we still believe that buying Boeing stock in 2021 is not a good investment. Besides the uncertainty surrounding the launch date of the new 737 MAX model and the pace of recovery in international travel, the market also values Boeing higher than its competitor Airbus. Considering these factors, we believe that Boeing is not a good buy in 2021.</p><p><b>Company Introduction</b></p><p>On Boeing's website, you can see that Boeing claims to be the world's largest aerospace company, a world-leading manufacturer of civil aircraft and defense, space and security systems, as well as an after-sales support service provider. As the largest manufacturing exporter in the United States, Boeing supports airline and government customers in more than 150 countries and regions around the world. Boeing's products and customized services include: civil and military aircraft, satellites, weapons, electronic and defense systems, launch systems, advanced information and communications systems, as well as performance-based logistics and training.</p><p>Boeing has three business units: the Commercial Aircraft Group, the Defense, Space and Security Group, and the Boeing Global Services Group. As a global provider of financial solutions, Boeing Financial supports these business groups.</p><p>In addition, there are functional organizations that work at the company level, focusing on engineering and project management, technology and R&D project execution, advanced design and manufacturing systems, safety, finance, quality and productivity improvement, and information technology.</p><p>But we all know that the global commercial aircraft market has long been monopolized by Boeing and Airbus.</p><p>Before the grounding of the 737 MAX in 2019 and the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, Boeing generated 57% and 65% of its revenue and operating profit in fiscal year 2018, respectively, from its core commercial aircraft business. In fiscal year 2018, revenue from defense, space and security, global services, and financial businesses accounted for 26%, 17%, and 1% of Boeing's total revenue, respectively.</p><p>In fiscal year 2020, revenue from commercial aircraft, defense, space and security, global services, and financial businesses accounted for 28%, 45%, 26%, and 1% of Boeing's total revenue, respectively. Boeing's core commercial aircraft business unit reported losses in fiscal years 2019, 2020, and the first quarter of fiscal years 2021.</p><p>In this article, Beast Finance mainly focuses on Boeing's commercial aircraft business, as this business once contributed the largest revenue to Boeing and is key to Boeing narrowing its losses and eventually returning to profitability in the future.</p><p><b>Boeing's stock price</b></p><p>Boeing's stock price reached an all-time high of $430.30 on March 1, 2019, primarily due to the company's record-breaking revenue and profit for fiscal year 2018, which it announced a month earlier on January 30, 2019.</p><p>However, the good days did not last long. Boeing's 737 MAX was grounded in March 2019 after an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX crashed. As of December 31, 2019, Boeing's stock price had fallen 25% from its all-time high to $323.83.</p><p>On December 16, 2019, Boeing announced that it would \"suspend production of the 737 program\". A week later, on December 23, 2019, Boeing announced that its chairman, David l. Calhoun, would replace Dennis A. Muirenberg as the company's new CEO.</p><p>To make matters worse, on March 20, 2020, with the outbreak of the pandemic, Boeing's stock price fell to $95.01, a five-year low. This outbreak is another major blow to Boeing's core commercial aircraft business, as countries have imposed travel restrictions to combat the pandemic and global air travel has come to a standstill.</p><p>Boeing's stock price eventually fell from $323.83 on December 31, 2019, to $214.06 on December 31, 2020, a drop of 34%. However, its stock price later rose sharply by 125% from its low in March. Specifically, Boeing's stock price rebounded strongly in November and December 2020 due to positive news regarding the cancellation of the 737 MAX grounding and vaccinations. On November 18, 2020, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted the grounding order for the 737 MAX. In addition, the World Health Organization pointed out in December 2020 that the \"first mass vaccination program\" had begun.</p><p>In 2021, Boeing's stock price continued to rebound. Boeing's stock price has risen 7% year-to-date, from $214.06 on December 31, 2020, to $228.18 on May 5, 2021. While it's safe to say that Boeing's worst period is over, the road to recovery will certainly not be smooth sailing.</p><p><b>Can Boeing's stock price continue to rise?</b></p><p>Beast Finance believes that the key to Boeing's sustained stock price recovery lies in whether its core commercial aircraft business unit can reduce losses in a timely manner and return to profitability. The future prospects of Boeing's commercial aircraft business, in turn, are affected by 737 MAX deliveries and the recovery of global travel.</p><p>Boeing's commercial aircraft revenue has fallen 31% year-over-year so far, from $6.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2021. This is an improvement over the 50% decline in full-year revenue in fiscal year 2020. In addition, some operating losses in the commercial aircraft business also decreased from $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to $900 million in the most recent quarter. This improvement is primarily due to the resumption of 737 MAX deliveries after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration lifted the grounding order for the 737 MAX in November 2020. As of April 26, 2021, Boeing had delivered more than 85 737 MAX aircraft. It is worth noting that Boeing has also received new orders for 737 aircraft from some other airlines in the United States.</p><p>On the other hand, the 737 MAX is still waiting to be launched in China, a major aviation market. During its Q1 2021 earnings call on April 28, 2021, Boeing acknowledged that \"we are still awaiting regulatory approval from China for the 737 MAX,\" that \"its timing will affect our 737 delivery schedule\" and \"future productivity.\" To further complicate matters, whether China can lift the grounding of the 737 MAX is not just a security issue, as US-China relations may also be a significant factor in determining when the 737 MAX is allowed to resume service in China.</p><p>More importantly, the 737 MAX itself still has many problems. Reuters reported on April 29, 2021, that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had asked Boeing to \"fix connectivity issues with some of its 737 MAX aircraft's electrical systems, which could lead to the failure of engine protection measures and critical cockpit functions.\" Reuters subsequently published another article on May 5, 2021, emphasizing that it had requested Boeing to provide the FAA with \"the latest documentation to demonstrate that the 737 MAX subsystems would not be affected by electrical connectivity issues.\" Boeing had previously disclosed in late April 2021 that approximately \"100 aircraft in service were affected by electrical system problems,\" which would result in \"low deliveries in April.\"</p><p>In other words, restoring the 737 MAX to normal delivery levels may take longer than expected.</p><p>In addition, the recovery of global travel is another key factor that will have a significant impact on Boeing's core commercial aircraft business. The latest news released by the International Air Transport Association on May 4 shows that the outlook for global air travel is bleak in the near future. According to data from the International Air Transport Association, the number of passenger kilometers flown globally is still about one-third of what it was before the pandemic (i.e., in March 2019). International travel is expected to take longer to recover compared to domestic travel.</p><p><b>Global travel data and trends</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b27b9e7d4e601fe5b8504d6617226e\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99a53447a89ee63ca432ae05ca7a611\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48841f1f97ed09d443ecb67dbe2ffd1\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>In addition to this, there are other more complicated factors. According to Reuters, in April 2021, the WHO stated that it did not support the resumption of global travel given \"uncertainty and fairness concerns about whether vaccination can prevent the spread of the epidemic.\" A few days ago, the International Air Transport Association warned that travel recovery \"could be dangerously affected by (high) costs.\" More importantly, as shown in the chart below, the containment of the 2019 pandemic was uneven around the world. Although weekly confirmed cases in the United States have declined significantly, confirmed cases continue to rise in places such as India and Latin America.</p><p>Confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the world</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a1ab352a9a07223c40c479d1fd3c58\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>In short, while Boeing's commercial aircraft business will certainly eventually recover, the timing of that recovery is still very uncertain, largely due to the complex factors we mentioned above.<b>Financial forecasts for Boeing</b>In its Q1 2021 earnings call, Boeing reiterated, \"Consistent with the International Air Transport Association and other industry groups, we expect passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels in 2023-2024.\" Boeing also added on the earnings call, \"The recovery of our commercial aircraft business will enable us to achieve positive cash flow in 2022.\"</p><p>Sell-side analysts typically align with company management in their future financial forecasts. According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the market generally believes that Boeing's revenue will grow by 37% and 12% in fiscal years 2021 and 2022, respectively, to $79.8 billion and $89.5 billion. Wall Street expects Boeing's revenue to remain flat in fiscal year 2023 and grow 8% year-over-year to $96 billion in fiscal year 2024. For reference, Boeing's revenue in fiscal year 2019 was $76.6 billion, and its sales in fiscal year 2020 were $101.1 billion.</p><p>According to the general expectations of sell-side analysts, Boeing is also expected to achieve profitability in fiscal year 2022, with operating cash flow and free cash flow reaching $9.4 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively. Boeing's operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative in both fiscal years 2019 and 2020, and are expected to remain unchanged in fiscal year 2021. It is worth noting that Boeing's operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 was -$3.4 billion, an improvement from -$4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2020. Nevertheless, Boeing emphasized on its Q1 2021 earnings call that \"our cash flow position depends largely on whether we can obtain regulatory approvals for the remaining 737 MAX, the recovery of our commercial aircraft business, and ongoing discussions with customers regarding fleet planning needs.\"</p><p>According to Beast Finance, the market's current financial forecasts for Boeing are still a bit too optimistic. Currently, the pandemic is resurfacing in some parts of the world, and the recovery of international travel is slower than expected. Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether Boeing's latest electrical system problems will further delay the delivery of the 737 MAX. We believe that sell-side analysts are likely to consider lowering their financial forecasts for Boeing in the coming quarters.</p><p><b>Should I buy Boeing stock in 2021?</b>In the long run, we do really like excellent companies like Boeing. More importantly, the duopoly of companies like Airbus and Boeing in the commercial aircraft sector is unlikely to be challenged by any company in the foreseeable future, given the significant barriers to entry in terms of scale and capital.</p><p>On the other hand, Boeing's stock may not be as attractive in the short term. The reasons are, as we mentioned earlier, that the market's current financial forecast for Boeing is still too optimistic, that the market's valuation of Boeing is higher than that of its competitor Airbus, that more 737 MAX aircraft are still affected by current electrical system problems, and that the pandemic will take longer than expected to be effectively controlled, which lead us to this conclusion.</p>","source":"lsy1586862168255","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Boeing stock worth buying in 2021?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Boeing stock worth buying in 2021?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">猛兽财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Since reaching its all-time high in March 2019, its stock price has been hit by both the grounding of the 737 MAX and the pandemic, and it has not recovered even after two years. Looking ahead, Boeing's recovery path is not smooth, and the 737 MAX is still grounded in China and facing electrical system problems. In addition, the recovery of international travel has been slower than expected.</p><p>The market generally expects Boeing to achieve profitability and positive cash flow in fiscal year 2022, with revenue this year exceeding the level of 2019. However, according to Beast Finance, the market is still too optimistic. While the market's long-term expectations for passenger traffic growth and aircraft demand remain unchanged, we still believe that buying Boeing stock in 2021 is not a good investment. Besides the uncertainty surrounding the launch date of the new 737 MAX model and the pace of recovery in international travel, the market also values Boeing higher than its competitor Airbus. Considering these factors, we believe that Boeing is not a good buy in 2021.</p><p><b>Company Introduction</b></p><p>On Boeing's website, you can see that Boeing claims to be the world's largest aerospace company, a world-leading manufacturer of civil aircraft and defense, space and security systems, as well as an after-sales support service provider. As the largest manufacturing exporter in the United States, Boeing supports airline and government customers in more than 150 countries and regions around the world. Boeing's products and customized services include: civil and military aircraft, satellites, weapons, electronic and defense systems, launch systems, advanced information and communications systems, as well as performance-based logistics and training.</p><p>Boeing has three business units: the Commercial Aircraft Group, the Defense, Space and Security Group, and the Boeing Global Services Group. As a global provider of financial solutions, Boeing Financial supports these business groups.</p><p>In addition, there are functional organizations that work at the company level, focusing on engineering and project management, technology and R&D project execution, advanced design and manufacturing systems, safety, finance, quality and productivity improvement, and information technology.</p><p>But we all know that the global commercial aircraft market has long been monopolized by Boeing and Airbus.</p><p>Before the grounding of the 737 MAX in 2019 and the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, Boeing generated 57% and 65% of its revenue and operating profit in fiscal year 2018, respectively, from its core commercial aircraft business. In fiscal year 2018, revenue from defense, space and security, global services, and financial businesses accounted for 26%, 17%, and 1% of Boeing's total revenue, respectively.</p><p>In fiscal year 2020, revenue from commercial aircraft, defense, space and security, global services, and financial businesses accounted for 28%, 45%, 26%, and 1% of Boeing's total revenue, respectively. Boeing's core commercial aircraft business unit reported losses in fiscal years 2019, 2020, and the first quarter of fiscal years 2021.</p><p>In this article, Beast Finance mainly focuses on Boeing's commercial aircraft business, as this business once contributed the largest revenue to Boeing and is key to Boeing narrowing its losses and eventually returning to profitability in the future.</p><p><b>Boeing's stock price</b></p><p>Boeing's stock price reached an all-time high of $430.30 on March 1, 2019, primarily due to the company's record-breaking revenue and profit for fiscal year 2018, which it announced a month earlier on January 30, 2019.</p><p>However, the good days did not last long. Boeing's 737 MAX was grounded in March 2019 after an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX crashed. As of December 31, 2019, Boeing's stock price had fallen 25% from its all-time high to $323.83.</p><p>On December 16, 2019, Boeing announced that it would \"suspend production of the 737 program\". A week later, on December 23, 2019, Boeing announced that its chairman, David l. Calhoun, would replace Dennis A. Muirenberg as the company's new CEO.</p><p>To make matters worse, on March 20, 2020, with the outbreak of the pandemic, Boeing's stock price fell to $95.01, a five-year low. This outbreak is another major blow to Boeing's core commercial aircraft business, as countries have imposed travel restrictions to combat the pandemic and global air travel has come to a standstill.</p><p>Boeing's stock price eventually fell from $323.83 on December 31, 2019, to $214.06 on December 31, 2020, a drop of 34%. However, its stock price later rose sharply by 125% from its low in March. Specifically, Boeing's stock price rebounded strongly in November and December 2020 due to positive news regarding the cancellation of the 737 MAX grounding and vaccinations. On November 18, 2020, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted the grounding order for the 737 MAX. In addition, the World Health Organization pointed out in December 2020 that the \"first mass vaccination program\" had begun.</p><p>In 2021, Boeing's stock price continued to rebound. Boeing's stock price has risen 7% year-to-date, from $214.06 on December 31, 2020, to $228.18 on May 5, 2021. While it's safe to say that Boeing's worst period is over, the road to recovery will certainly not be smooth sailing.</p><p><b>Can Boeing's stock price continue to rise?</b></p><p>Beast Finance believes that the key to Boeing's sustained stock price recovery lies in whether its core commercial aircraft business unit can reduce losses in a timely manner and return to profitability. The future prospects of Boeing's commercial aircraft business, in turn, are affected by 737 MAX deliveries and the recovery of global travel.</p><p>Boeing's commercial aircraft revenue has fallen 31% year-over-year so far, from $6.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2021. This is an improvement over the 50% decline in full-year revenue in fiscal year 2020. In addition, some operating losses in the commercial aircraft business also decreased from $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to $900 million in the most recent quarter. This improvement is primarily due to the resumption of 737 MAX deliveries after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration lifted the grounding order for the 737 MAX in November 2020. As of April 26, 2021, Boeing had delivered more than 85 737 MAX aircraft. It is worth noting that Boeing has also received new orders for 737 aircraft from some other airlines in the United States.</p><p>On the other hand, the 737 MAX is still waiting to be launched in China, a major aviation market. During its Q1 2021 earnings call on April 28, 2021, Boeing acknowledged that \"we are still awaiting regulatory approval from China for the 737 MAX,\" that \"its timing will affect our 737 delivery schedule\" and \"future productivity.\" To further complicate matters, whether China can lift the grounding of the 737 MAX is not just a security issue, as US-China relations may also be a significant factor in determining when the 737 MAX is allowed to resume service in China.</p><p>More importantly, the 737 MAX itself still has many problems. Reuters reported on April 29, 2021, that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had asked Boeing to \"fix connectivity issues with some of its 737 MAX aircraft's electrical systems, which could lead to the failure of engine protection measures and critical cockpit functions.\" Reuters subsequently published another article on May 5, 2021, emphasizing that it had requested Boeing to provide the FAA with \"the latest documentation to demonstrate that the 737 MAX subsystems would not be affected by electrical connectivity issues.\" Boeing had previously disclosed in late April 2021 that approximately \"100 aircraft in service were affected by electrical system problems,\" which would result in \"low deliveries in April.\"</p><p>In other words, restoring the 737 MAX to normal delivery levels may take longer than expected.</p><p>In addition, the recovery of global travel is another key factor that will have a significant impact on Boeing's core commercial aircraft business. The latest news released by the International Air Transport Association on May 4 shows that the outlook for global air travel is bleak in the near future. According to data from the International Air Transport Association, the number of passenger kilometers flown globally is still about one-third of what it was before the pandemic (i.e., in March 2019). International travel is expected to take longer to recover compared to domestic travel.</p><p><b>Global travel data and trends</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b27b9e7d4e601fe5b8504d6617226e\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99a53447a89ee63ca432ae05ca7a611\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48841f1f97ed09d443ecb67dbe2ffd1\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>In addition to this, there are other more complicated factors. According to Reuters, in April 2021, the WHO stated that it did not support the resumption of global travel given \"uncertainty and fairness concerns about whether vaccination can prevent the spread of the epidemic.\" A few days ago, the International Air Transport Association warned that travel recovery \"could be dangerously affected by (high) costs.\" More importantly, as shown in the chart below, the containment of the 2019 pandemic was uneven around the world. Although weekly confirmed cases in the United States have declined significantly, confirmed cases continue to rise in places such as India and Latin America.</p><p>Confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the world</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a1ab352a9a07223c40c479d1fd3c58\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: International Air Transport Association</p><p>In short, while Boeing's commercial aircraft business will certainly eventually recover, the timing of that recovery is still very uncertain, largely due to the complex factors we mentioned above.<b>Financial forecasts for Boeing</b>In its Q1 2021 earnings call, Boeing reiterated, \"Consistent with the International Air Transport Association and other industry groups, we expect passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels in 2023-2024.\" Boeing also added on the earnings call, \"The recovery of our commercial aircraft business will enable us to achieve positive cash flow in 2022.\"</p><p>Sell-side analysts typically align with company management in their future financial forecasts. According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the market generally believes that Boeing's revenue will grow by 37% and 12% in fiscal years 2021 and 2022, respectively, to $79.8 billion and $89.5 billion. Wall Street expects Boeing's revenue to remain flat in fiscal year 2023 and grow 8% year-over-year to $96 billion in fiscal year 2024. For reference, Boeing's revenue in fiscal year 2019 was $76.6 billion, and its sales in fiscal year 2020 were $101.1 billion.</p><p>According to the general expectations of sell-side analysts, Boeing is also expected to achieve profitability in fiscal year 2022, with operating cash flow and free cash flow reaching $9.4 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively. Boeing's operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative in both fiscal years 2019 and 2020, and are expected to remain unchanged in fiscal year 2021. It is worth noting that Boeing's operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 was -$3.4 billion, an improvement from -$4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2020. Nevertheless, Boeing emphasized on its Q1 2021 earnings call that \"our cash flow position depends largely on whether we can obtain regulatory approvals for the remaining 737 MAX, the recovery of our commercial aircraft business, and ongoing discussions with customers regarding fleet planning needs.\"</p><p>According to Beast Finance, the market's current financial forecasts for Boeing are still a bit too optimistic. Currently, the pandemic is resurfacing in some parts of the world, and the recovery of international travel is slower than expected. Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether Boeing's latest electrical system problems will further delay the delivery of the 737 MAX. We believe that sell-side analysts are likely to consider lowering their financial forecasts for Boeing in the coming quarters.</p><p><b>Should I buy Boeing stock in 2021?</b>In the long run, we do really like excellent companies like Boeing. More importantly, the duopoly of companies like Airbus and Boeing in the commercial aircraft sector is unlikely to be challenged by any company in the foreseeable future, given the significant barriers to entry in terms of scale and capital.</p><p>On the other hand, Boeing's stock may not be as attractive in the short term. The reasons are, as we mentioned earlier, that the market's current financial forecast for Boeing is still too optimistic, that the market's valuation of Boeing is higher than that of its competitor Airbus, that more 737 MAX aircraft are still affected by current electrical system problems, and that the pandemic will take longer than expected to be effectively controlled, which lead us to this conclusion.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H-dZ6S6YFsOHwpuTgXAlgw\">猛兽财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db65f3d4f6f7c47bb1a0c9e744a2fd64","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/H-dZ6S6YFsOHwpuTgXAlgw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129750415","content_text":"波音的股价自从在2019年3月达到历史最高点后，就受到了737 MAX停飞和疫情的双重打击，两年过去了至今还没恢复过来。展望未来，波音的复苏之路也不是很顺利，而且737 MAX仍在中国停飞，并面临着电气系统的问题。此外，国际旅行的复苏速度也比预期的要慢。市场普遍预期，波音将在2022财年实现盈利和现金流转正，今年的收入将超过2019年的水平，但在猛兽财经看来，市场还是太乐观了。虽然市场对客流量的增长和飞机需求的长期预期保持不变，但我们还是认为在2021年买入波音的股票不是一项好的投资。因为除了737 MAX新机型的推出时间和国际旅行的复苏速度不确定之外，市场对波音的估值也比竞争对手空客高。考虑到这些因素，我们认为波音在2021年不是一个好的买入对象。公司介绍在波音网站上可以看到波音宣称波音公司是全球最大的航空航天业公司，也是世界领先的民用飞机和防务、空间与安全系统制造商，以及售后支持服务提供商。作为美国最大的制造出口商，波音公司为分布在全球150多个国家和地区的航空公司和政府客户提供支持。波音的产品以及定制的服务包括：民用和军用飞机、卫星、武器、电子和防御系统、发射系统、先进信息和通讯系统，以及基于性能的物流和培训等。波音公司下设三个业务部门：商用飞机集团，防务、空间与安全集团，以及波音全球服务集团。作为金融解决方案的全球提供者，波音金融公司负责支持这些业务集团。此外，还有一些在整个公司层面工作的职能组织，关注工程和项目管理、技术和研发项目执行、先进设计和制造系统、安全、财务、质量和生产力改进，以及信息技术。但我们都知道，全球商用飞机市场早已被波音和空客这两家公司双头垄断了。在2019年737 MAX停飞和2020年疫情爆发之前，波音2018财年的收入和运营利润分别有57%和65%来自其核心商用飞机业务。2018财年，防务、空间与安全、全球服务和金融业务贡献的收入分别占到了波音整体收入的26%、17%和1%。在2020财年，来自商用飞机、国防、空间与安全、全球服务和金融业务贡献的收入分别占到了波音整体收入的28%、45%、26%和1%。而波音公司的核心商用飞机业务部门在2019财年、2020财年和2021财年第一季度一直处于亏损状态。在本文中，猛兽财经主要关注的是波音的商用飞机业务，因为这项业务曾为波音贡献了最大的收入以及该业务是波音缩小亏损并最终在未来恢复盈利的关键。波音的股价波音的股价在2019年3月1日达到了430.30美元的历史最高点，主要是因为该公司在一个月前的2019年1月30日公布的其2018财年收入和利润都创造了历史新高。然而好日子并没有持续多久。2019年3月，埃塞俄比亚航空公司的737 MAX客机坠毁后，波音的737 MAX客机就被停飞了。截至2019年12月31日，波音的股价已经从其历史最高点下跌了25%，至323.83美元。2019年12月16日，波音公司宣布将“暂停737项目的生产”。一周后，也就是2019年12月23日，波音公司透露，其董事长大卫·l·卡尔霍恩将取代丹尼斯·A·米伦伯格成为公司的新CEO。更糟糕的是，2020年3月20日，随着疫情的爆发，波音股价跌到了95.01美元，创下了五年来的新低。这次疫情对波音核心商用飞机业务来说又是一次重大打击，因为各国为抗击疫情已经实施了旅行限制，全球航空旅行已经停止了。波音的股价最终从2019年12月31日的323.83美元下跌到了2020年12月31日的214.06美元，下跌了34%。但其股价后来从3月份的低点又大幅上涨了125%。具体来说，波音的股价在2020年11月和12月出现了强劲反弹，原因是有关取消737 MAX停飞和疫苗接种的利好消息。2020年11月18日，美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)取消了对737 MAX的停飞令。另外，世界卫生组织在2020年12月指出，“第一次大规模疫苗接种计划”已经开始。2021年，波音的股价继续在回升。今年以来，波音股价上涨了7%，从2020年12月31日的214.06美元上涨到了2021年5月5日的228.18美元。虽然可以有把握的说，波音最糟糕的时期已经过去，但复苏之路肯定不会一帆风顺。波音股价能否持续回升猛兽财经认为波音股价能否持续回升的关键在于其核心商用飞机业务部门能否及时减少亏损，并重新实现盈利。而波音商业飞机业务的未来前景反过来又受到737 MAX交付量和全球旅行恢复的影响。到目前为止波音商用飞机业务的营收已经同比下降了31%，从2020年第一季度的62亿美元下降到了2021年第一季度的43亿美元。这已经比在2020财年全年收入下降50%的情况下有所改善。另外商用飞机业务的部分运营亏损也从2020年第一季度的21亿美元减少到最近一季度的9亿美元。这一改善主要是由于美国联邦航空管理局在2020年11月取消了对737 MAX的停飞令后，737 MAX的交付恢复。截至2021年4月26日，波音已交付了超过85架的737MAX飞机。值得注意的是，波音也从美国的一些其他航空公司接到了737飞机的新订单。另一方面，737 MAX仍在等待在中国这个主要的航空市场落地。在2021年4月28日的2021年第一季度财报电话会议上，波音承认“我们仍在等待中国对737 MAX的监管批准”，“它的时间将影响我们的737交付计划”和“未来的生产率”。令问题进一步复杂化的是，中国能不能取消对737 MAX的停飞令不仅仅是一个安全问题，因为美中关系也可能是决定737 MAX何时获准在中国恢复服务的一个重要因素。更重要的是，737 MAX飞机本身还存在着很多问题。路透社在2021年4月29日报道，美国联邦航空管理局已要求波音公司“修复其部分737 MAX飞机电气系统的连接问题，这些问题可能会导致发动机擎保护措施失效和驾驶舱的关键功能失效。”路透社随后又在2021年5月5日发表了另一篇文章，强调要求波音向美国联邦航空管理局提供“最新的文件，用来证明737 MAX子系统不会受到电气连接问题的影响。”波音公司早前在2021年4月底就透露，约有“100架在用飞机受到了电气系统问题的影响”，这将导致“4月份的交付量很少”。换句话说，将737 MAX恢复到正常的交付水平可能要花费比预期更长的时间。另外，全球旅行的恢复是对波音核心商用飞机业务产生重大影响的另一个关键因素。国际航空运输协会5月4日的发布的最新消息显示，近期全球航空旅行前景黯淡。根据国际航空运输协会的数据，全球旅客飞行公里数仍约为疫情前的(即2019年3月)的三分之一。与国内旅游相比，国际旅行预计还需要更长的时间才能恢复。全球旅行数据和趋势资料来源:国际航空运输协会除此之外，还有其他更复杂的因素。据路透社报道，2021年4月，世卫组织指出，鉴于“接种疫苗是否能防止疫情传播的不确定性以及公平担忧”，它不支持恢复全球旅行。几天前，国际航空运输协会还警告说，旅行恢复“可能会因(高昂的)成本而受到危险的影响。”更重要的是，如下图所示，2019疫情在世界各地的遏制情况并不均衡。虽然美国每周确诊的病例显著下降，但在印度和拉丁美洲等地，确诊病例还在继续增加。世界各地的新冠肺炎确诊病例资料来源:国际航空运输协会简而言之，虽然波音的商用飞机业务最终肯定会复苏，但复苏的时间还非常不确定，主要原因还是我们上面说的那些复杂因素。对波音的财务预测波音在2021年第一季度业绩发布会上重申，“与国际航空运输协会和其他行业团体一致，我们预计2023年至2024年客运量将恢复到2019年的水平。波音还在财报电话会议上补充道，“商用飞机业务的复苏将使我们能够在2022年实现正现金流。”卖方分析师通常会与公司管理层在未来的财务预测上保持一致。根据S&P Capital IQ的数据，市场普遍认为，波音在2021财年和2022财年的营收将分别增长37%和12%，达到798亿美元和895亿美元。华尔街预计，波音的营收将在2023财年持平，2024财年将同比增长8%，达到960亿美元。作为参考，波音在2019财年的收入为766亿美元，在2020财年的销售额为1011亿美元。根据卖方分析师的普遍预期，波音还有望在2022财年实现盈利，运营现金流和自由现金流分别达到94亿美元和75亿美元。在2019财年和2020财年的过去两年里，波音的运营现金流和自由现金流均为负值，预计2021财年将保持不变。值得注意的是，波音2021年第一季度的运营现金流为- 34亿美元，较2020年第一季度的- 43亿美元有所改善。尽管如此，波音公司还是在2021第一季度财报电话会议上强调，“我们的现金流状况在很大程度上取决于能否获得剩余的737 MAX监管批准、商用飞机业务的复苏以及与客户就机群规划需求进行的持续讨论。在猛兽财经看来，目前市场对波音公司的财务预测还是有点过于乐观了。当前，疫情在全球部分地区再次抬头，国际旅行复苏速度低于预期。而且目前还不能确定的是，波音最新的电气系统问题是否还会导致737 MAX的交付进一步延迟。我们认为卖方分析师很有可能会考虑下调对波音未来几个季度的财务预测。在2021年应该买入波音股票吗？从长远来看，我们确实非常喜欢波音这种非常优秀的企业。更重要的是，在可预见的未来，空客和波音这种公司在商用飞机领域的双头垄断格局不太可能会受到任何公司的挑战，因为这个领域在规模和资金方面存在着巨大的进入壁垒。另一方面，波音的股票在短期内可能不那么有吸引力。理由就是我们前面说过的那些，目前市场对波音的财务预测还是太乐观了，而且市场对波音的估值高于与其竞争对手空客，以及更多的737 MAX飞机还在受到当前电气系统问题的影响，还有就是疫情需要比预期更长的时间才能得到有效控制等因素，促使我们得到这样的结论。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112042421,"gmtCreate":1622830881663,"gmtModify":1704192106226,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112042421","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187222291,"gmtCreate":1623756192113,"gmtModify":1703818231257,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187222291","repostId":"1116108105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131481044,"gmtCreate":1621873933488,"gmtModify":1704363733422,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131481044","repostId":"2137133573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137133573","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621827990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137133573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 11:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns for global markets over the next year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137133573","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Sheets指出，金融危机后十年，经济风险倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是央行会如何刺激增长。但眼下我们面临一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。","content":"<p>A global pandemic has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has pulled the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis era, and the core issues dominating market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets recently took a long-term view, pointing out that the current economic and market situation is very different from the decade after the financial crisis.</p><p><b>The post-financial crisis era was characterized by fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks preemptively curbing inflation risks.</b></p><p>In fact, although we often associate \"easing policies\" with the previous cycle, the People's Bank of China's tightening in 2010, the European Central Bank's rate hike in 2011, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early measures to nip inflation in the bud. In contrast, currently, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, and strong consumption and investment have become the four major engines of the economy:</p><p>Fiscal policy is expanding at an unprecedented rate, consumption is healthy in the United States, Europe, and China, and savings levels are reaching record levels. We are also seeing a “hot capital expenditure cycle,” with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near historic lows.<b>However, central banks around the world remained calm in the face of strong growth.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the persistently high unemployment rate and the average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>Sheets concludes that this is a global economy where \"more acceleration and less braking\" are required.</b>This means that the risk situation facing the global economy is also different. Over the past decade, risks have tended to be downward, and the market's focus is on what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat the weakness.</p><p><b>Growth is now safe, so the core concerns that dominate the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressures? 4. Has the strong growth been reflected in prices? Sheets points out that if these are the \"concerns\" dominating the next 6-12 months, then they will not affect global markets \"evenly\" and will have different impacts on different markets and assets:</p><p>These concerns will be the primary and central issues for U.S. stocks and credit, as well as the emerging markets sector. But for Europe and Japan, problems such as overvaluation, high inflation, a shift in hardline policies, or a new corporate tax seem much more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually fast normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class often performs well in the early stages of a cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to ensure survival. However, as the market heats up, the additional growth does not mean that investors will receive any additional income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, credit performance is poor based on our latest 12-month forecast, and the credit risk premium appears high relative to other assets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns for global markets over the next year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: These are the four core concerns for global markets over the next year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A global pandemic has changed the face of the global economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus has pulled the global economy out of the quagmire of long-term stagnation in the post-financial crisis era, and the core issues dominating market trends have also changed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets recently took a long-term view, pointing out that the current economic and market situation is very different from the decade after the financial crisis.</p><p><b>The post-financial crisis era was characterized by fiscal austerity, low investment, consumer deleveraging, and central banks preemptively curbing inflation risks.</b></p><p>In fact, although we often associate \"easing policies\" with the previous cycle, the People's Bank of China's tightening in 2010, the European Central Bank's rate hike in 2011, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike in 2015 were all positive early measures to nip inflation in the bud. In contrast, currently, fiscal easing, low-interest loans, and strong consumption and investment have become the four major engines of the economy:</p><p>Fiscal policy is expanding at an unprecedented rate, consumption is healthy in the United States, Europe, and China, and savings levels are reaching record levels. We are also seeing a “hot capital expenditure cycle,” with both public and private sector investment increasing, while global real interest rates remain near historic lows.<b>However, central banks around the world remained calm in the face of strong growth.</b>For the Federal Reserve, the focus remains on the persistently high unemployment rate and the average inflation target, while for the European Central Bank, the focus is on long-term inflation remaining lower than expected.</p><p><b>Sheets concludes that this is a global economy where \"more acceleration and less braking\" are required.</b>This means that the risk situation facing the global economy is also different. Over the past decade, risks have tended to be downward, and the market's focus is on what new forms of easing the central bank will come up with to combat the weakness.</p><p><b>Growth is now safe, so the core concerns that dominate the market are:</b></p><p>1. Will economic recovery lead to inflation? 2. Will this change central bank policy? 3. Will this lead to profit and tax pressures? 4. Has the strong growth been reflected in prices? Sheets points out that if these are the \"concerns\" dominating the next 6-12 months, then they will not affect global markets \"evenly\" and will have different impacts on different markets and assets:</p><p>These concerns will be the primary and central issues for U.S. stocks and credit, as well as the emerging markets sector. But for Europe and Japan, problems such as overvaluation, high inflation, a shift in hardline policies, or a new corporate tax seem much more distant.<b>Hotter cycles may also mean shorter cycles, as well as unusually fast normalization.</b>Sheets believes that this situation is not conducive to credit:</p><p>This asset class often performs well in the early stages of a cycle and after a recession, when growth recovers and companies focus on their business to ensure survival. However, as the market heats up, the additional growth does not mean that investors will receive any additional income from corporate bonds. On a cross-asset basis, credit performance is poor based on our latest 12-month forecast, and the credit risk premium appears high relative to other assets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631062","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137133573","content_text":"一场席卷全球的疫情改变了全球经济的面貌，史无前例的财政和货币政策刺激将全球经济一把拽出了后金融危机时期长期停滞的泥潭，主宰市场走势的核心问题也发生了变化。\n摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师Andrew Sheets近日放眼长期，指出眼下的经济和市场情况，和后金融危机时代的那十年相比，已经大有不同。\n后金融危机时期的标签是财政紧缩、低投资、消费者去杠杆化，以及央行先发制人地遏制通胀风险：\n\n 事实上，尽管我们常常将“宽松政策”与上一个周期联系在一起，但中国央行在2010年就开始紧缩、欧洲央行2011年的加息以及美联储2015年的加息都是为了将通胀扼杀在萌芽状态的积极早期举措。\n\n反观眼下，财政宽松、低息贷款、强劲的消费和投资成为经济引擎上的四大气缸：\n\n 财政政策史无前例地扩张，美国、欧洲和中国的消费状况良好，储蓄水平达到创纪录水平。我们还看到了一个“炽热的资本支出周期”，公共和私人部门投资都在增加，同时全球实际利率仍接近历史低点。\n\n然而，面对强劲的增长，全球央行反应依然淡定。对于美联储来说，关注焦点依然是居高不下的失业率以及平均通胀目标，对于欧洲央行，焦点在于长期通胀依然低于预期。\nSheets总结道，这是一个“踩油门多，踩刹车少”的全球经济。这意味着全球经济面临的风险情况也有所不同。过去10年，风险往往倾向于下行，市场关注焦点是，央行会想出什么样的新宽松形式来对抗疲弱。\n现在增长无虞，因此主宰市场的核心忧虑在于:\n\n 1. 经济复苏是否会导致通胀?2. 这会否改变央行政策?3. 这是否会导致利润和税收压力?4. 强劲的增长是否已经体现在价格上了?\n\nSheets指出，如果这些是主导未来6-12个月的“担忧”，那么它们不会“平均”地作用于全球市场，对不同市场和资产，有不同的影响：\n\n 对于美国股票和信贷，以及新兴市场领域，这些担忧将成为首要和中心问题。但对欧洲和日本来说，过高估值、高通胀、强硬政策转变或新企业税等问题似乎要遥远得多。\n\n更热的周期也可能意味着更短的周期，以及异常快的正常化。Sheets认为，这种情况不利于信贷：\n\n 这一资产类别往往在周期初期和衰退后表现突出，此时增长复苏，企业专注于业务以保证生存。但随着市场升温，额外的增长并不意味着投资者能从公司债券中获得任何额外的收入。在跨资产的基础上，根据我们最新的12个月预测，信贷表现不佳，相对于其他资产，信贷风险溢价看起来很高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184149199,"gmtCreate":1623692112911,"gmtModify":1704208902191,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184149199","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274383,"gmtCreate":1623147250942,"gmtModify":1704197044203,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274383","repostId":"1101949190","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101949190","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623147077,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101949190?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"White House: Must work with allies to ensure the supply of metals needed for electric vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101949190","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。","content":"<p>The White House said on Tuesday that for environmental and other reasons, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also establish a task force to determine where in the country minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed. It is unclear what impact this will have on existing electric vehicle mining projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major obstacle to Biden’s EV rollout plan, as domestic mines face broad regulatory hurdles and opposition from environmentalists.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>White House: Must work with allies to ensure the supply of metals needed for electric vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhite House: Must work with allies to ensure the supply of metals needed for electric vehicles\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The White House said on Tuesday that for environmental and other reasons, the United States must work with allies to ensure the supply of minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and process them domestically. The Biden administration will also establish a task force to determine where in the country minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other technologies can be produced and processed. It is unclear what impact this will have on existing electric vehicle mining projects.</p><p>Getting enough copper, lithium and other raw materials to produce electric vehicle batteries is a major obstacle to Biden’s EV rollout plan, as domestic mines face broad regulatory hurdles and opposition from environmentalists.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11fb5ef0b1cb032e12ea701b85e5650d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101949190","content_text":"美国白宫周二表示，出于环保和其他因素考虑，美国必须与盟友合作，以确保电动汽车电池所需的矿产供应，并在国内进行加工。拜登政府还将成立一个工作小组，确定用于电动汽车电池和其他技术的矿物可以在国内哪些地方生产和加工。目前尚不清楚这对现有的电动汽车矿产项目会有什么影响。\n获得足够的铜、锂和其他原材料来生产电动汽车电池，是拜登电动汽车推广计划的一个主要障碍，因为国内矿场面临着广泛的监管门槛和环保人士反对。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"F":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117274078,"gmtCreate":1623147230794,"gmtModify":1704197044687,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117274078","repostId":"1179000628","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179000628","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623144281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179000628?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter or become a concentrated explosion point of US stock risk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179000628","media":"智通财经","summary":"2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。","content":"<p>Author: Yucheng Ho</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increase, U.S. stocks may pull back by 10%-15% in the next six months.</p><p>Given that corporate earnings in U.S. stocks beat estimates by as much as 20% over the past four quarters, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings picture in the second half of 2021 was relatively tough in comparison.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noted that during the pandemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituents achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely, the technology, healthcare, and utilities sectors.</p><p>The chart below FactSet (FDS) shows the expected record results for the second quarter of 2021, the best since the fourth quarter of 2009.</p><p><b>Tax hikes-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>On June 5th, the G7 finance ministers' meeting announced that it supported the proposal to impose the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase of corporate income tax will directly impact the profits of U.S. stocks, while the current technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rate and high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the most affected.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors adding leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>Third quarter or become a concentrated breaking point of U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the consensus estimate for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given that the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index is still at a high of about 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, the room for further upward movement of the US stock market is limited.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases the signal of reducing bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter or the time when the risk of U.S. stocks is concentrated.</p><p>If the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined as January 1, 2022, the high probability of outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy Stocks Still Have Attraction</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best performing sector in U.S. stock market trading this year, but there is plenty of upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>If you stretch the timeline, the share prices of energy producers have not yet recovered to the levels before the oil price collapse that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Such as Exxon Mobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving an upward revision of EPS growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. The percentage peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter or become a concentrated explosion point of US stock risk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Tax increase + high inflation\", the third quarter or become a concentrated explosion point of US stock risk\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yucheng Ho</p><p>Morgan Stanley recently said that although the current declining P/E of U.S. stocks has been largely offset by rising corporate profit expectations, with the rising cost pressure and the cloud of corporate tax increase, U.S. stocks may pull back by 10%-15% in the next six months.</p><p>Given that corporate earnings in U.S. stocks beat estimates by as much as 20% over the past four quarters, setting an unprecedented new record, the earnings picture in the second half of 2021 was relatively tough in comparison.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noted that during the pandemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 constituents achieved positive earnings and revenue growth in the first and second quarters of 2020, namely, the technology, healthcare, and utilities sectors.</p><p>The chart below FactSet (FDS) shows the expected record results for the second quarter of 2021, the best since the fourth quarter of 2009.</p><p><b>Tax hikes-the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year</b></p><p>On June 5th, the G7 finance ministers' meeting announced that it supported the proposal to impose the world's lowest tax rate of 15%. If Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: the increase of corporate income tax will directly impact the profits of U.S. stocks, while the current technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rate and high proportion of overseas income are expected to be the most affected.</p><p>CITIC Securities said that if the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investors to sell off, and the trend of \"retail investors adding leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed.</p><p><b>Third quarter or become a concentrated breaking point of U.S. stocks</b></p><p>Although the consensus estimate for this year's S&P 500 earnings growth has been raised from 27% in mid-April to the current 34%, given that the current dynamic valuation of the S&P index is still at a high of about 22 times. In the absence of new catalytic factors, the room for further upward movement of the US stock market is limited.</p><p>On the contrary, all kinds of risks are gradually increasing. If the Federal Reserve clearly releases the signal of reducing bond purchases at the end of August, and the Democratic Party passes the tax increase bill as scheduled before the end of September, the late third quarter or the time when the risk of U.S. stocks is concentrated.</p><p>If the starting effective date of the capital gains tax reform is finally determined as January 1, 2022, the high probability of outflow of \"retail investors plus leverage\" funds may have a negative impact on the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>Energy Stocks Still Have Attraction</b></p><p>Energy stocks have been the best performing sector in U.S. stock market trading this year, but there is plenty of upside to make up for years of sharp declines.</p><p>If you stretch the timeline, the share prices of energy producers have not yet recovered to the levels before the oil price collapse that began in the summer of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d38e07cf5741d1537fbf5147d98bde\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Such as Exxon Mobil (XOM.US) and Chevron (CVX.US) are driving an upward revision of EPS growth in the energy sector.</p><p>Energy still accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. The percentage peaked at 14%-15% in August-September 2014.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1179000628","content_text":"作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在2020年第一季度和第二季度实现了正收益和收入增长，即科技、保健以及公用事业行业。\n下图FactSet(FDS)显示了2021年第二季度预期的创纪录结果，这是自2009年第四季度以来最好的一次。\n加税——美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大。\n中信证券表示，若资本利得税若上调至39.6%，预计将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转。\n3季度或成为美股集中爆发点\n虽然市场对今年标普500盈利增速的一致预期已从4月中旬的27%上调至当前的34%，但鉴于目前标普指数动态估值仍处于22倍左右的高位。在无新的催化因素下，美股大市进一步上行的空间有限。\n相反，各类风险却在逐步加剧。若美联储于8月底明确释放削减购债的信号，且民主党于9月底前如期通过加税法案，则3季度下旬或是美股风险集中爆发的时间点。\n而如果资本利得税改的起始有效日最终确定为2022年1月1日，则“散户加杠杆”资金的大概率流出可能会在4季度对美股的表现造成负面影响。\n能源股仍具备吸引力\n在美国股市今年以来的交易中，能源股是表现最好的一个板块，但要弥补多年以来的大幅下跌，这个板块还有很大的上行空间。\n如拉长时间轴来看，能源生产商的股价尚未恢复到2014年夏季开始的油价大跌之前的水平。\n\n如埃克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)正在推动能源行业每股收益增长的上调。\n目前能源占标普500指数市值的比例仍然只有3%。这一比例在2014年8月至9月达到14%-15%的峰值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045103,"gmtCreate":1622830951302,"gmtModify":1704192106711,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112045103","repostId":"2140745244","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107698067,"gmtCreate":1620476889959,"gmtModify":1704344207026,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107698067","repostId":"1119886772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119886772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620436108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119886772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Does China need to worry about imported inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119886772","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近","content":"<p>Abstract: my country does not meet three conditions for imported inflation. In response to rising commodity prices, the focus should be on addressing the resulting imbalance in profit distribution across the industrial chain. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of profits between upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain, meaning that the proportion of upstream industries in total profits is increasing. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive territory, which some believe is a typical example of imported inflation. However, in summary, for imported inflation to occur, at least three conditions must be met: First, the country must be a recipient of changes in international commodity prices; Second, the arrangement of a fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic prices of various industrial products and consumer goods.<b>At present, these three conditions are basically not met in China, and China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b>The pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economic recovery can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.<b>Given that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge proportion of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. In response to rising commodity prices, the focus should be on addressing the resulting imbalance in profit distribution across the industrial chain.</b>The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of profits between upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain, meaning that the proportion of upstream industries in total profits is increasing. To improve the imbalance in profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,<b>Targeted tax and fee reductions can continue to be used to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises.</b>However, given the current predicament of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the room for structural fiscal policies to play their role is limited. On the other hand,<b>We must still expand aggregate demand at the aggregate level. Before the economy recovers to the normal level of the pandemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macroeconomic management policies and not overreact to commodity price trends.</b></p><p>—Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, Young Researchers at the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40)</p><p>Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive territory, which some believe is a typical example of imported inflation. A review of existing academic research and facts reveals that<b>Imported inflation has its own specific mechanism of action, and China's reality does not fully meet the conditions for its action.</b></p><p><b>While the current temporary rise in PPI is certainly related to rising commodity prices, it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\".</b>This should not be misinterpreted as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgments in decision-making.</p><p><b>1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p><b>1. How do academic papers define imported inflation?</b></p><p><b>Imported inflation refers to the rise in the overall domestic price level caused by changes in external economic factors.</b></p><p>International research on Imported Inflation began during the oil crisis of the 1970s. In his study of Inflation in the United States from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) attributed the rise in domestic prices mainly to external shocks, arguing that this externally transmitted Inflation could not be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by an abnormal inflow of effective demand exceeding supply or by increasing import costs.\"</p><p><b>However, judging from the history of two sustained and significant increases in international commodity prices in the last half century, imported inflation does not seem to be able to well explain the inflation differences between countries during the same period.</b></p><p>Friedman (1979) compared inflation levels in the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis and found that inflation levels in all countries did not change in sync with rising oil prices, and that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation between countries.</p><p>He pointed out that in the early 1970s, inflation rates in Japan and Britain were above 30% per year, while inflation rates in the United States were around 10% and in Germany were less than 5%. In the five years following the 1973 oil crisis, inflation slowed in Germany and Japan, with Germany's annual inflation rate falling from about 7% to less than 5%, and Japan's from over 30% to 5%. Inflation in the United States, however, peaked the following year at about 12%, fell to 5% in 1976, and then rose again to over 13% in 1979.</p><p>He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% dependent on imported oil, but they are doing a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which relies on 50% of its oil imports, or the United Kingdom, which has become a major oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.</p><p>Wu Ge (2011) also reviewed the different performances of inflation in different countries during the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in different countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the increase of more than 10%-20% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. The volatility of inflation itself was more moderate, and its correlation with commodity prices also seemed to be weakening. Due to the impact of international commodity prices, inflation rates in countries with high oil dependence, such as Germany and Japan, have remained low. The United States has a relatively low dependence on oil, but its inflation rate is actually high. As a major oil producer, Britain has the highest inflation rate among the four countries.</p><p>These basic facts show that,<b>Imported inflation or external cost shocks do not adequately explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.</b></p><p><b>2. The transmission mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p>Existing academic research generally divides the influence of external factors on domestic price levels into three categories, and then constructs econometric models to verify the corresponding transmission mechanisms.</p><p>These econometric models mostly use indicators such as international commodity prices and the money supply of other countries to reflect external factors. As explanatory variables, they take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as the explanatory variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.</p><p>We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of existing academic studies.</p><p><b>2.1 Imported inflation under the cost-driven mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of basic domestic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will lead to a general rise in price levels, resulting in cost-driven inflation.</p><p>Current discussions about imported inflation are mainly based on this logic. But,<b>For the above mechanisms to function, at least three necessary conditions must be met:</b></p><p><b>First, the domestic country is a recipient of changes in international commodity prices, and the domestic supply and demand situation has virtually no impact on international commodity prices. Moreover, the appreciation of the domestic exchange rate cannot offset the rise in import prices.</b></p><p>Otherwise, \"importance\" would be out of the question. This is why this mechanism plays a significant role in the \"small country open economy\" model.</p><p><b>Secondly, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the majority of domestic production costs, and their price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.</b></p><p>Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated based on a model that price levels are affected by the prices of the three major factors of production: labor, raw materials, and land. They found that the average response elasticity of the CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08, and 0.02, respectively. From this, they calculated that the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials, and land prices to the CPI from a cost perspective were 74%, 17%, and 9%, respectively, from August 2009 to September 2010. It is evident that labor costs occupy an absolute dominant position among cost factors.</p><p>Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices caused by the oil crisis in the 1970s had a significant impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France, but after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.</p><p>Bernank et al. (2004) also found that commodity prices have had a smaller impact on CPI since the beginning of the 21st century. They concluded that the reason is that raw materials account for a smaller proportion of total costs, and some of these costs have been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.</p><p><b>Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.</b>When studying imported inflation, Wang Jingjing (2011) found that international financial derivatives prices and import prices mainly change the production factor prices of manufacturers, which ultimately manifests as changes in PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the impact of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations is greatly weakened.</p><p><b>2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission logic: When inflation and price increases occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods abroad, while suppressing domestic residents' consumption of imported goods and instead increasing their consumption of domestic goods. Ultimately, this will lead to an increase in domestic aggregate demand and trigger domestic inflation.<b>For the above mechanism to be established, two necessary conditions must be met:</b></p><p><b>First, a fixed exchange rate.</b>Under the aforementioned price mechanism, if foreign inflationary factors are to have an effect on the trade structure, the domestic exchange rate must be fixed; otherwise, relative changes in domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in the exchange rate.</p><p><b>Second, the price elasticity of supply for domestic exports and the price elasticity of demand for imports must be sufficiently large.</b>。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic exports is low, domestic exports will not be greatly affected even if foreign prices fluctuate significantly. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, price increases for imported goods will not significantly affect demand.</p><p><b>2.3 Imported inflation caused by exchange rate stabilization</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: When inflation and price increases occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the expectation of local currency appreciation will lead to a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the domestic exchange rate, the domestic central bank will passively increase the money supply, which in turn stimulates domestic aggregate demand and leads to inflation.</p><p><b>A necessary condition for the establishment of such a mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, faced with three difficult choices, the central bank effectively gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flows.</b></p><p><b>Discussion on imported inflation in 2011</b></p><p>Currently, there is a certain upward trend in international commodity markets, and some views link this trend to the rise in domestic PPI, raising concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply review the last round of focused discussions on imported inflation, which took place in 2011.</p><p>As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in that month continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, while the PPI growth rate also remained at a high level of around 7%. The economic backdrop at the time was that the world was in a period of significant policy easing following the international financial shock, leading to a surge in international commodity prices. Both Brent and WTI crude oil closed above $100 per barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% year-on-year, respectively. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans, and soybean oil on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44%, and 48.6%, respectively.</p><p>Figure 1: Monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) of CPI and PPI from 2009 to 2013</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, the market and academia have engaged in some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.</p><p>Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation in commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil-producing countries on domestic inflation. It also describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital, and information flow channels based on data performance.</p><p>However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation cannot explain the historical differences in inflation among countries. It also attempts to explain the aforementioned inflation differences by the deviation between the money supply and the total economic output, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means of curbing domestic inflation is still to control the total domestic money supply. The China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.</p><p>A simple look at the macroeconomic background of review at the time reveals that...<b>Domestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to some extent, a result of \"shifting from exports to domestic sales\".</b></p><p>In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion yuan\" stimulus plan was gradually implemented. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%, and the year-on-year growth rate difference between M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at historical highs at that time. Meanwhile, new credit reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan in 2009 and 2010, respectively.</p><p>According to a calculation by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) at the time (2011), China contributed 60% of the world's new currencies from 2008 to 2010. [Data sourced from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19 of 2011, which records a speech by a representative of CICC at a macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by the China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was described.]</p><p>Large-scale funds entered the real economy mainly through policy-driven and government investment, stimulating domestic investment and consumption demand and stabilizing economic growth. However, they also created temporary excess demand and raised the overall price level. As related infrastructure projects gradually transformed into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and aggregate supply, the inflation situation at that time also gradually eased. By December 2011, the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI began to fall to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.</p><p>Judging from the results, 2011 was precisely the peak of that round of commodity prices, which was also the cyclical peak of global inflation levels. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and combating deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.</p><p><b>At present, China does not have the conditions for imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>1. Basic facts: PPI is significantly stronger than CPI</b></p><p><b>Looking at price trends from the perspective of CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of demand after the pandemic.</b>The continued recovery of pork supply will drive down the overall CPI, accelerating the recovery of the service sector, but it is still some distance from normal. The core CPI has already bottomed out, but the rate of continued increase will not be too high.</p><p>From January to March 2021, the cumulative CPI growth rate was zero, and the overall CPI trend remained mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.</p><p>The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, a decrease of 20.1 percentage points from the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork remains the biggest disruptive factor. Affected by the increased release of frozen meat during the previous Spring Festival and the continued recovery of live pig inventory, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9 yuan/kg on April 2, 2021, a decrease of 20.3%. The pork sub-item in the CPI also saw a cumulative decline of 12.5% from January to March, keeping the overall CPI at a low level.</p><p>In addition, no major extreme weather events occurred nationwide from January to March this year, ensuring a sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the CPI for fresh vegetables from January to March was 4.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year.</p><p>Figure 2: CPI and Monthly Cumulative Year-on-Year Growth Trends for Food and Pork Items</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 3: Hog supply plays a major role in this round of pork price fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observing the trend of the core CPI, which excludes the impact of energy and food, shows that it has been on a downward trend since 2018. In 2020, the rate of this downward trend accelerated significantly due to the contraction in demand following the impact of the pandemic.</b>In 2020, after the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI reached 1.2% in March, it continued to decline to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the core CPI grew by -0.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This is mainly due to the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control efforts have basically eliminated the localized outbreaks in various regions in January, and the recovery of service consumption has gotten back on track.</p><p>Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in the current month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand situation of food, especially pork, remains a factor that cannot be ignored.</b>According to a relevant official from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, based on an average month-on-month increase of 2.1% in the number of pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of pigs in stock will have fully recovered to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage remains significant. It should also be noted that the service sector is gradually recovering, but the pace is still relatively slow. Post-pandemic consumer demand remains weak, and the rate of increase in core CPI is expected to remain low after it bottoms out.</p><p><b>The inflationary pressures widely discussed in the market are actually mainly concentrated in the PPI.</b>。 The PPI rose 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month in March, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue share of large-scale enterprises in each industrial sector in 2020 as a weight, and according to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industrial Chain Index Series Compilation Scheme\", we can calculate the year-on-year PPI growth rate of each upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sector in that month (Figure 5). It can be seen that the overall price increase of industrial products is mainly due to price increases in upstream industries in the industrial chain.</p><p>Figure 5: Year-on-year PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the price increases in upstream industrial sectors cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base date and the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the changes in the South China Commodity Index after the pandemic in the four major categories of commodities: ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products (Figure 6). Compared to before the pandemic, ferrous metals saw the largest increase (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), then agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still saw a 33% decline.</p><p>Figure 6: Trends of the South China Commodity Index for various commodities</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. China need not worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, imported inflation has three main mechanisms of action (Figure 7), and the current discussion is actually mainly focused on cost-driven pathways.</p><p>In summary,<b>For imported inflation to occur, at least three conditions must be met:</b>First, the domestic country is a recipient of changes in international commodity prices; Second, the arrangement of a fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic prices of various industrial products and consumer goods.</p><p>At present,<b>These three conditions are basically not true in China, and China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions for imported inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, China is the world's second-largest economy, not a small economy that acts as a price recipient.</b>。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.</p><p>Research by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the world's 40 major mineral resources in 2018, my country ranked first in the world in terms of consumption of 30 minerals [Data from the \"Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report,\" edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang].</p><p>According to statistics (Figure 8), 12 types of minerals account for more than 50% of my country's global energy and important mineral consumption, and 23 types account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include major commodities such as coal, limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and phosphorus.</p><p>Figure 8: China's share of global consumption of major minerals in 2018</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. China's energy and important mineral resource demand outlook [J]. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35(03):338-344.</p><p><b>Secondly, after years of reforms, the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has greatly increased, and it can more fully reflect various economic information.</b>During this round of commodity price increases, exchange rate appreciation actually played a hedging role against the rise in commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).</p><p>Figure 9: Trends of the South China Commodity Composite Index and the RMB Exchange Rate Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, during this round of economic recovery, the CPI and PPI diverged significantly. Only the PPI rose rapidly, while the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, did not rise significantly.</b>Even though the Chinese economy has been recovering for four consecutive quarters, the actual inflationary pressures it faces are not significant.</p><p>This deviation is not a new phenomenon. Since 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least illustrates,<b>Over the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumption side is not smooth.</b></p><p>In conclusion, China lacks the foundation for imported inflation, and there is no need to worry about so-called imported inflation.<b>The pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economic recovery can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.</b>As shown in Figure 6 above, the most prominent increase in domestic commodity prices is in the price of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. In March 2021, among the year-on-year PPI growth rates by industry, the ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry ranked highest in the entire industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, while the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked among the top with a growth rate of 21.5%. The high PPI growth rates in non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation (13.3%) also corroborate the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Based on the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, my country accounts for more than 60% of the global demand for chromium, while its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%. Among non-ferrous metals, my country accounts for nearly 80% of the global demand for tungsten, and more than 50% for aluminum and copper.<b>Given that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge proportion of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.</b></p><p>Inflation is a total issue, and the term \"inflation\" implies an overheated economy, which can hinder monetary policy. Macroeconomic data from the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in a recovery phase, and the core CPI has just broken out of a continuous downward trend. Although many service industries are continuing to recover, they are still some distance from normal, and it is too early to discuss inflationary pressures at this time.</p><p><b>In response to rising commodity prices, the focus should be on addressing the resulting imbalance in profit distribution across the industrial chain. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of profits between upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain, meaning that the proportion of upstream industries in total profits is increasing.</b>After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly. It decreased slightly in 2019, but was still higher than before 2016.</p><p>To improve the imbalance in profit distribution in this industrial chain,<b>On the one hand, targeted tax and fee reduction measures can continue to be used.</b>While improving the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises is important, given the current predicament of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the room for structural fiscal policies to play a role is limited.<b>On the other hand, we still need to expand aggregate demand from an aggregate perspective. Before the economy recovers to normal levels following the pandemic, we should resolutely use expansionary macroeconomic management policies and avoid overreacting to commodity price trends.</b>。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does China need to worry about imported inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes China need to worry about imported inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: my country does not meet three conditions for imported inflation. In response to rising commodity prices, the focus should be on addressing the resulting imbalance in profit distribution across the industrial chain. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of profits between upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain, meaning that the proportion of upstream industries in total profits is increasing. Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive territory, which some believe is a typical example of imported inflation. However, in summary, for imported inflation to occur, at least three conditions must be met: First, the country must be a recipient of changes in international commodity prices; Second, the arrangement of a fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic prices of various industrial products and consumer goods.<b>At present, these three conditions are basically not met in China, and China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b>The pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economic recovery can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.<b>Given that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge proportion of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices. In response to rising commodity prices, the focus should be on addressing the resulting imbalance in profit distribution across the industrial chain.</b>The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of profits between upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain, meaning that the proportion of upstream industries in total profits is increasing. To improve the imbalance in profit distribution in this industrial chain, on the one hand,<b>Targeted tax and fee reductions can continue to be used to improve the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises.</b>However, given the current predicament of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the room for structural fiscal policies to play their role is limited. On the other hand,<b>We must still expand aggregate demand at the aggregate level. Before the economy recovers to the normal level of the pandemic, we should unswervingly use expansionary macroeconomic management policies and not overreact to commodity price trends.</b></p><p>—Zhu He and Sheng Zhongming, Young Researchers at the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40)</p><p>Recently, the prices of some commodities have risen, driving the PPI to quickly return to positive territory, which some believe is a typical example of imported inflation. A review of existing academic research and facts reveals that<b>Imported inflation has its own specific mechanism of action, and China's reality does not fully meet the conditions for its action.</b></p><p><b>While the current temporary rise in PPI is certainly related to rising commodity prices, it is far from the so-called \"imported inflation\".</b>This should not be misinterpreted as \"imported inflation\" to avoid misjudgments in decision-making.</p><p><b>1. Definition and mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p><b>1. How do academic papers define imported inflation?</b></p><p><b>Imported inflation refers to the rise in the overall domestic price level caused by changes in external economic factors.</b></p><p>International research on Imported Inflation began during the oil crisis of the 1970s. In his study of Inflation in the United States from 1971 to 1974, Cagan (1980) attributed the rise in domestic prices mainly to external shocks, arguing that this externally transmitted Inflation could not be effectively controlled through domestic monetary policy. Kolodko (1987) defines imported inflation as an upward trend in prices \"caused by an abnormal inflow of effective demand exceeding supply or by increasing import costs.\"</p><p><b>However, judging from the history of two sustained and significant increases in international commodity prices in the last half century, imported inflation does not seem to be able to well explain the inflation differences between countries during the same period.</b></p><p>Friedman (1979) compared inflation levels in the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom during the oil crisis and found that inflation levels in all countries did not change in sync with rising oil prices, and that imported inflation could not explain the differences in inflation between countries.</p><p>He pointed out that in the early 1970s, inflation rates in Japan and Britain were above 30% per year, while inflation rates in the United States were around 10% and in Germany were less than 5%. In the five years following the 1973 oil crisis, inflation slowed in Germany and Japan, with Germany's annual inflation rate falling from about 7% to less than 5%, and Japan's from over 30% to 5%. Inflation in the United States, however, peaked the following year at about 12%, fell to 5% in 1976, and then rose again to over 13% in 1979.</p><p>He also pointed out that \"Germany and Japan are 100% dependent on imported oil, but they are doing a better job of reducing inflation than the United States, which relies on 50% of its oil imports, or the United Kingdom, which has become a major oil producer.\" These significant differences cannot be explained by the impact of the oil crisis.</p><p>Wu Ge (2011) also reviewed the different performances of inflation in different countries during the rising trend of international oil prices from the beginning of the 21st century to 2008, and found that the inflation rate in different countries was basically stable within 4%-5%, which was significantly lower than the increase of more than 10%-20% during the oil crisis in the 1970s. The volatility of inflation itself was more moderate, and its correlation with commodity prices also seemed to be weakening. Due to the impact of international commodity prices, inflation rates in countries with high oil dependence, such as Germany and Japan, have remained low. The United States has a relatively low dependence on oil, but its inflation rate is actually high. As a major oil producer, Britain has the highest inflation rate among the four countries.</p><p>These basic facts show that,<b>Imported inflation or external cost shocks do not adequately explain the differences in inflation performance among countries.</b></p><p><b>2. The transmission mechanism of imported inflation</b></p><p>Existing academic research generally divides the influence of external factors on domestic price levels into three categories, and then constructs econometric models to verify the corresponding transmission mechanisms.</p><p>These econometric models mostly use indicators such as international commodity prices and the money supply of other countries to reflect external factors. As explanatory variables, they take changes in domestic CPI and PPI as the explanatory variables. Then, different models are used to verify whether external factors have a significant impact on domestic price levels and how strong the explanation is.</p><p>We found that there are obvious differences in the research conclusions of existing academic studies.</p><p><b>2.1 Imported inflation under the cost-driven mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: Rising prices of imported goods push up the cost of basic domestic products. In the absence of excess demand, rising costs will lead to a general rise in price levels, resulting in cost-driven inflation.</p><p>Current discussions about imported inflation are mainly based on this logic. But,<b>For the above mechanisms to function, at least three necessary conditions must be met:</b></p><p><b>First, the domestic country is a recipient of changes in international commodity prices, and the domestic supply and demand situation has virtually no impact on international commodity prices. Moreover, the appreciation of the domestic exchange rate cannot offset the rise in import prices.</b></p><p>Otherwise, \"importance\" would be out of the question. This is why this mechanism plays a significant role in the \"small country open economy\" model.</p><p><b>Secondly, the cost of imported raw materials accounts for the majority of domestic production costs, and their price changes will significantly affect the price of domestic finished products.</b></p><p>Ai Jin et al. (2015) calculated based on a model that price levels are affected by the prices of the three major factors of production: labor, raw materials, and land. They found that the average response elasticity of the CPI to the prices of the three factors was 0.16, 0.08, and 0.02, respectively. From this, they calculated that the contribution ratios of labor, raw materials, and land prices to the CPI from a cost perspective were 74%, 17%, and 9%, respectively, from August 2009 to September 2010. It is evident that labor costs occupy an absolute dominant position among cost factors.</p><p>Le Blanc et al. (2014) also pointed out that the rise in oil prices caused by the oil crisis in the 1970s had a significant impact on inflation in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and France, but after 2000, the impact of oil prices on inflation in these countries became very limited.</p><p>Bernank et al. (2004) also found that commodity prices have had a smaller impact on CPI since the beginning of the 21st century. They concluded that the reason is that raw materials account for a smaller proportion of total costs, and some of these costs have been absorbed by the profits of manufacturers or distributors.</p><p><b>Third, PPI has a smooth transmission effect on CPI.</b>When studying imported inflation, Wang Jingjing (2011) found that international financial derivatives prices and import prices mainly change the production factor prices of manufacturers, which ultimately manifests as changes in PPI. However, due to the poor transmission between PPI and CPI, the impact of imported inflation factors on CPI fluctuations is greatly weakened.</p><p><b>2.2 Imported inflation under the trade mechanism</b></p><p>Transmission logic: When inflation and price increases occur abroad, it will stimulate exporters to export more goods abroad, while suppressing domestic residents' consumption of imported goods and instead increasing their consumption of domestic goods. Ultimately, this will lead to an increase in domestic aggregate demand and trigger domestic inflation.<b>For the above mechanism to be established, two necessary conditions must be met:</b></p><p><b>First, a fixed exchange rate.</b>Under the aforementioned price mechanism, if foreign inflationary factors are to have an effect on the trade structure, the domestic exchange rate must be fixed; otherwise, relative changes in domestic and foreign prices will be reflected in changes in the exchange rate.</p><p><b>Second, the price elasticity of supply for domestic exports and the price elasticity of demand for imports must be sufficiently large.</b>。 If the supply price elasticity of domestic exports is low, domestic exports will not be greatly affected even if foreign prices fluctuate significantly. At the same time, if the price elasticity of domestic demand for imported goods is also small, price increases for imported goods will not significantly affect demand.</p><p><b>2.3 Imported inflation caused by exchange rate stabilization</b></p><p>Transmission mechanism: When inflation and price increases occur abroad, it will cause the foreign currency to depreciate relative to the local currency, and the expectation of local currency appreciation will lead to a large inflow of international capital. For the purpose of maintaining the stability of the domestic exchange rate, the domestic central bank will passively increase the money supply, which in turn stimulates domestic aggregate demand and leads to inflation.</p><p><b>A necessary condition for the establishment of such a mechanism is that maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of the central bank. In other words, faced with three difficult choices, the central bank effectively gave up the independence of monetary policy and chose exchange rate stability and free capital flows.</b></p><p><b>Discussion on imported inflation in 2011</b></p><p>Currently, there is a certain upward trend in international commodity markets, and some views link this trend to the rise in domestic PPI, raising concerns about \"imported inflation\". We can simply review the last round of focused discussions on imported inflation, which took place in 2011.</p><p>As shown in Figure 1, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in that month continued to rise from the beginning of 2010 to 6.5% in July 2011, while the PPI growth rate also remained at a high level of around 7%. The economic backdrop at the time was that the world was in a period of significant policy easing following the international financial shock, leading to a surge in international commodity prices. Both Brent and WTI crude oil closed above $100 per barrel in the first half of 2011. In April of that year, the prices of copper, tin, lead and aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose by 21.4%, 72.3%, 25.7% and 13.9% year-on-year, respectively. The prices of corn, wheat, soybeans, and soybean oil on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by 96.2%, 61.2%, 44%, and 48.6%, respectively.</p><p>Figure 1: Monthly year-on-year growth rate (%) of CPI and PPI from 2009 to 2013</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0189eeea4f2edbd48077b454feb916b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, the market and academia have engaged in some discussions on preventing the risk of imported inflation.</p><p>Peng Sen (2012) comprehensively analyzed the impact of factors such as the global loose monetary environment, international capital speculation in commodities, political instability and economic recovery in oil-producing countries on domestic inflation. It also describes the transmission of international commodity prices to domestic prices through commodity, capital, and information flow channels based on data performance.</p><p>However, Wu Ge (2011) sorted out the connotation and transmission mechanism of imported inflation, and found that imported inflation cannot explain the historical differences in inflation among countries. It also attempts to explain the aforementioned inflation differences by the deviation between the money supply and the total economic output, which has a good explanatory effect. Therefore, it is proposed that the primary means of curbing domestic inflation is still to control the total domestic money supply. The China Development Research Foundation also organized a seminar in June 2011 to analyze the causes and trends of inflation at that time.</p><p>A simple look at the macroeconomic background of review at the time reveals that...<b>Domestic stimulus policies are the main cause of inflation. The so-called rise in international commodity prices is, to some extent, a result of \"shifting from exports to domestic sales\".</b></p><p>In response to the global financial crisis, the \"4 trillion yuan\" stimulus plan was gradually implemented. In 2009 and 2010, my country's M1 and M2 growth rates were both above 20%, and the year-on-year growth rate difference between M2 and GDP and the proportion of M2 to GDP were both at historical highs at that time. Meanwhile, new credit reached 9.58 trillion yuan and 7.92 trillion yuan in 2009 and 2010, respectively.</p><p>According to a calculation by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) at the time (2011), China contributed 60% of the world's new currencies from 2008 to 2010. [Data sourced from \"China Development Research Foundation Research Reference\" No. 19 of 2011, which records a speech by a representative of CICC at a macroeconomic situation analysis meeting hosted by the China Development Research Foundation on June 3, 2011, in which this data was described.]</p><p>Large-scale funds entered the real economy mainly through policy-driven and government investment, stimulating domestic investment and consumption demand and stabilizing economic growth. However, they also created temporary excess demand and raised the overall price level. As related infrastructure projects gradually transformed into productivity, promoting the expansion of productivity and aggregate supply, the inflation situation at that time also gradually eased. By December 2011, the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI began to fall to 4.1%, and then gradually dropped to 1.8% in July 2012.</p><p>Judging from the results, 2011 was precisely the peak of that round of commodity prices, which was also the cyclical peak of global inflation levels. Since then, global commodities have entered a five-year downward cycle, and combating deflationary pressures has become the new main theme.</p><p><b>At present, China does not have the conditions for imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>1. Basic facts: PPI is significantly stronger than CPI</b></p><p><b>Looking at price trends from the perspective of CPI, the dominant factors are still concentrated on the food supply side and the recovery of demand after the pandemic.</b>The continued recovery of pork supply will drive down the overall CPI, accelerating the recovery of the service sector, but it is still some distance from normal. The core CPI has already bottomed out, but the rate of continued increase will not be too high.</p><p>From January to March 2021, the cumulative CPI growth rate was zero, and the overall CPI trend remained mainly affected by the high base and increased pork supply.</p><p>The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of food CPI from January to March was 0.2%, a decrease of 20.1 percentage points from the high growth rate of 20.3% in the same period last year. Among food consumer goods, pork remains the biggest disruptive factor. Affected by the increased release of frozen meat during the previous Spring Festival and the continued recovery of live pig inventory, the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities has dropped from 48.83 yuan/kg on January 1, 2021 to 38.9 yuan/kg on April 2, 2021, a decrease of 20.3%. The pork sub-item in the CPI also saw a cumulative decline of 12.5% from January to March, keeping the overall CPI at a low level.</p><p>In addition, no major extreme weather events occurred nationwide from January to March this year, ensuring a sufficient supply of seasonal foods such as fresh vegetables. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the CPI for fresh vegetables from January to March was 4.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year.</p><p>Figure 2: CPI and Monthly Cumulative Year-on-Year Growth Trends for Food and Pork Items</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c113e7896f0edf18eb10f5b04adb8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 3: Hog supply plays a major role in this round of pork price fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c04dfc28112ae1a659c197c6371208\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Observing the trend of the core CPI, which excludes the impact of energy and food, shows that it has been on a downward trend since 2018. In 2020, the rate of this downward trend accelerated significantly due to the contraction in demand following the impact of the pandemic.</b>In 2020, after the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI reached 1.2% in March, it continued to decline to 0.4% in December. Entering 2021, the core CPI grew by -0.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical low. However, in March, the year-on-year growth rate was 0.3%, and the core CPI broke away from the continuous downward trend. This is mainly due to the fact that since February, my country's epidemic prevention and control efforts have basically eliminated the localized outbreaks in various regions in January, and the recovery of service consumption has gotten back on track.</p><p>Figure 4: Year-on-year growth trend of core CPI and service CPI in the current month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a3a2b093ec625ab2948977a9fbd2cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the overall CPI trend, the supply and demand situation of food, especially pork, remains a factor that cannot be ignored.</b>According to a relevant official from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, based on an average month-on-month increase of 2.1% in the number of pigs in each month of 2020, it is expected that by around June 2021, the number of pigs in stock will have fully recovered to the level of 2017. Therefore, the downward momentum of the overall CPI in the next stage remains significant. It should also be noted that the service sector is gradually recovering, but the pace is still relatively slow. Post-pandemic consumer demand remains weak, and the rate of increase in core CPI is expected to remain low after it bottoms out.</p><p><b>The inflationary pressures widely discussed in the market are actually mainly concentrated in the PPI.</b>。 The PPI rose 4.4% year-on-year and 1.6% month-on-month in March, the highest month-on-month increase in history. We use the revenue share of large-scale enterprises in each industrial sector in 2020 as a weight, and according to the upstream, midstream and downstream division method in the \"Shanghai Stock Exchange Industrial Chain Index Series Compilation Scheme\", we can calculate the year-on-year PPI growth rate of each upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sector in that month (Figure 5). It can be seen that the overall price increase of industrial products is mainly due to price increases in upstream industries in the industrial chain.</p><p>Figure 5: Year-on-year PPI growth rate of upstream, midstream and downstream industrial sectors by revenue weight (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aab13d68f58375336de5030f918d5fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the price increases in upstream industrial sectors cannot be generalized. We use the price on January 2, 2020 as the base date and the latest data on April 23, 2021 to observe the changes in the South China Commodity Index after the pandemic in the four major categories of commodities: ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, crude oil and agricultural products (Figure 6). Compared to before the pandemic, ferrous metals saw the largest increase (152%), followed by non-ferrous metals (39%), then agricultural products (19%), while crude oil still saw a 33% decline.</p><p>Figure 6: Trends of the South China Commodity Index for various commodities</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a327db62ac8614240225e9e4a91ff5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. China need not worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, imported inflation has three main mechanisms of action (Figure 7), and the current discussion is actually mainly focused on cost-driven pathways.</p><p>In summary,<b>For imported inflation to occur, at least three conditions must be met:</b>First, the domestic country is a recipient of changes in international commodity prices; Second, the arrangement of a fixed exchange rate system; Third, the smooth transmission of domestic prices of various industrial products and consumer goods.</p><p>At present,<b>These three conditions are basically not true in China, and China does not need to worry about the risk of imported inflation.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Three main mechanisms and necessary conditions for imported inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079a9dc08120e455d5ea8fcbb744ee74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, China is the world's second-largest economy, not a small economy that acts as a price recipient.</b>。 China's demand for commodities will have a significant impact on international commodity prices.</p><p>Research by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang (2019) shows that among the world's 40 major mineral resources in 2018, my country ranked first in the world in terms of consumption of 30 minerals [Data from the \"Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Work Report,\" edited by Wang Anjian and Wang Gaoshang].</p><p>According to statistics (Figure 8), 12 types of minerals account for more than 50% of my country's global energy and important mineral consumption, and 23 types account for more than 40%. These mineral resources include major commodities such as coal, limestone, iron, manganese, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and phosphorus.</p><p>Figure 8: China's share of global consumption of major minerals in 2018</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095cf77cf2d2bfb4cd658c3b914490d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wang Anjian, Gao Xinrui. China's energy and important mineral resource demand outlook [J]. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2020, 35(03):338-344.</p><p><b>Secondly, after years of reforms, the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has greatly increased, and it can more fully reflect various economic information.</b>During this round of commodity price increases, exchange rate appreciation actually played a hedging role against the rise in commodity prices that rely on external imports. (Figure 9).</p><p>Figure 9: Trends of the South China Commodity Composite Index and the RMB Exchange Rate Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12aa64af51e8b77972eb748a495ffc48\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, during this round of economic recovery, the CPI and PPI diverged significantly. Only the PPI rose rapidly, while the GDP deflator, which can better reflect price changes, did not rise significantly.</b>Even though the Chinese economy has been recovering for four consecutive quarters, the actual inflationary pressures it faces are not significant.</p><p>This deviation is not a new phenomenon. Since 2016, there has been a continuous divergence between PPI and CPI. This at least illustrates,<b>Over the past five years, there has been no effective evidence that PPI can be transmitted to CPI, and the price transmission mechanism from the production side to the consumption side is not smooth.</b></p><p>In conclusion, China lacks the foundation for imported inflation, and there is no need to worry about so-called imported inflation.<b>The pace and structural characteristics of the domestic economic recovery can explain most of the rise in commodity prices.</b>As shown in Figure 6 above, the most prominent increase in domestic commodity prices is in the price of ferrous metals, followed by non-ferrous metals. In March 2021, among the year-on-year PPI growth rates by industry, the ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry ranked highest in the entire industry with a growth rate of 34.7%, while the ferrous metal processing industry also ranked among the top with a growth rate of 21.5%. The high PPI growth rates in non-ferrous metal processing (21.3%) and non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation (13.3%) also corroborate the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Based on the data in Figure 8, among ferrous metals, my country accounts for more than 60% of the global demand for chromium, while its demand for manganese and iron is close to 50%. Among non-ferrous metals, my country accounts for nearly 80% of the global demand for tungsten, and more than 50% for aluminum and copper.<b>Given that my country's demand for major metal minerals accounts for such a huge proportion of global demand, changes in domestic demand are the main factor affecting prices.</b></p><p>Inflation is a total issue, and the term \"inflation\" implies an overheated economy, which can hinder monetary policy. Macroeconomic data from the past two months shows that my country's economy is still in a recovery phase, and the core CPI has just broken out of a continuous downward trend. Although many service industries are continuing to recover, they are still some distance from normal, and it is too early to discuss inflationary pressures at this time.</p><p><b>In response to rising commodity prices, the focus should be on addressing the resulting imbalance in profit distribution across the industrial chain. The rise in commodity prices is mainly reflected in the redistribution of profits between upstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain, meaning that the proportion of upstream industries in total profits is increasing.</b>After 2016, the proportion of upstream industries in the profits of industrial enterprises increased significantly. It decreased slightly in 2019, but was still higher than before 2016.</p><p>To improve the imbalance in profit distribution in this industrial chain,<b>On the one hand, targeted tax and fee reduction measures can continue to be used.</b>While improving the cash flow of downstream and small and medium-sized enterprises is important, given the current predicament of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the room for structural fiscal policies to play a role is limited.<b>On the other hand, we still need to expand aggregate demand from an aggregate perspective. Before the economy recovers to normal levels following the pandemic, we should resolutely use expansionary macroeconomic management policies and avoid overreacting to commodity price trends.</b>。</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d3216ba9e86e8387a5da72412418e73","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3629811","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119886772","content_text":"摘要：我国不具备输入性通胀的三个条件。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。\n\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。但综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨——在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。\n——朱鹤、盛中明 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）青年研究员\n近期，部分大宗商品价格走高，带动PPI快速回正，有观点认为这是典型的输入性通胀。梳理已有学术研究和事实可以发现，输入性通胀有其特定的作用机制，中国的现实并不完全满足其作用条件。\n目前PPI的阶段性上扬固然与大宗商品价格上涨有关，但与所谓的“输入性通胀”相差甚远，不应将其误读为“输入性通胀”，以免造成决策误判。\n1、输入性通胀的定义与机制\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1. 学术论文如何定义输入性通胀\n\n\n\n\n\n\n输入性通货膨胀，即由外部经济因素变化引起的国内物价总水平的上涨。\n国际上对输入性通胀（Imported Inflation）的研究始于20世纪70年代的石油危机期间，Cagan（1980）在对1971-1974 年美国通货膨胀的研究中，将国内物价上涨主要归因于外部冲击，提出这种外部传导的通货膨胀无法有效地通过国内的货币政策进行控制。Kolodko（1987）将输入型通胀定义为一种“由超过供给的有效需求的异常流入或不断增加的进口成本引起的”物价上涨趋势。\n但从最近半个世纪两次国际大宗商品持续大幅涨价的历史来看，输入性通胀对似乎不能很好地解释同时期内各国的通胀差异。\n弗里德曼（1979）曾比较了石油危机期间美国、日本、德国和英国的通胀水平，发现各国的通胀水平并不都随油价的上涨而同步变化，输入性通胀难以解释各国通胀的差异。\n他指出，20世纪70年代初期，日本和英国的通胀率每年在30%以上，而美国的通胀率在10%左右，德国不到5%。在1973年石油危机之后的五年里，德国和日本的通货膨胀减慢了，德国每年的通胀率从大约7%减到不足5%，日本从30%以上减到5%；美国的通货膨胀却在之后一年达到最高峰，约12%，1976 年降到5%，然后在1979年又升到13%以上。\n他还指出，“德国和日本是100%依靠进口石油的，可是它们在降低通胀率方面，却比50%石油依靠进口的美国、或是已成为大产油国的英国做得好。”以上显著的差异并不能用石油危机的冲击来解释。\n伍戈（2011）也梳理了21世纪初到2008年国际油价上涨趋势中不同国家通胀的不同表现，发现各国通胀率基本稳定在4%-5%以内，显著低于20世纪70年代石油危机期间10%-20%以上的涨幅，通胀自身的波动性更加缓和，且其与大宗商品价格的联动性似乎也在减弱。在国际大宗商品价格冲击下，德国、日本这类石油依存度高的国家通胀率保持在较低水平；而美国石油依存度相对较低，但通胀率反而较高。作为产油大国，英国的通胀率却是这四国中最高的。\n这些基本事实表明，用输入型通胀或外部成本冲击不能很好解释各国在通胀方面的差异表现。\n2. 输入性通胀的传导机制\n现有学术研究一般将外部因素对国内物价水平的影响途径分为三类，然后构建计量模型对相应传导机制进行验证。\n这些计量模型大多使用国际商品价格、其他国家的货币供应量等指标反映外部因素，作为解释变量，将国内CPI、PPI的变动作为被解释变量，然后使用不同模型验证外部因素对国内物价水平是否有显著影响，以及解释力度如何。\n我们发现，已有的学术研究的研究结论存在比较明显的差异。\n2.1 成本推动机制下的输入性通胀\n传导机制：进口商品价格上升推高了国内基础产品的成本，在没有超额需求的条件下，成本提高会引起价格水平的普遍上涨，带来成本推动型的通胀。\n当前对输入性通胀的讨论主要都是基于这个逻辑。但是，上述机制要发挥作用，至少要满足三个必要条件：\n一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者，国内的供需状态基本无法对国际商品价格产生影响，且本国的汇率升值不能抵消进口价格的上涨。\n如若不然，“输入性”也就无从谈起。这也是为什么这一机制在“小国开放经济”模型中会有显著作用。\n二是国外进口原材料的成本在国内生产成本中占主要部分，其价格变动会显著影响国内产成品的价格。\n艾进等（2015）根据物价水平受劳动力、原材料、土地三大要素价格影响的模型计算，发现CPI 对三大要素价格的平均反应弹性分别为0.16、0.08 和0.02，由此计算出2009年8月至2010年9月劳动力、原材料、土地价格从成本角度对CPI 的贡献比例分别为74%、17%和9%。可见在成本因素中，劳动力成本占据绝对主导地位。\nLe Blanc等（2014）也曾指出，20世纪70年代石油危机带来的油价上涨对美、日、法等发达国家的通货膨胀造成了很大影响，但2000年之后，油价对这些国家通胀的影响变得十分有限。\nBernank等(2004) 也发现，进入21世纪以后大宗商品价格对CPI影响较小，他们总结的原因在于原材料占总成本比重变小，且部分成本已经被生产商或经销商利润所吸收。\n三是PPI对CPI有通畅的传导效应。王京晶（2011）在对输入性通胀进行研究时发现，国际金融衍生品价格、进口价格主要改变生产厂商的生产要素价格, 最终表现为PPI的变动。但是，由于PPI与CPI之间传导不通畅，输入型通胀因素对CPI波动的影响程度被大大削弱。\n2.2 贸易机制下的输入性通胀\n传导逻辑：当国外出现通货膨胀、价格上涨时，会刺激出口商更多向外国出口商品，同时抑制本国居民对国外进口商品的消费，而转为增加对本国商品的消费，最终带来国内总需求增加，引发国内通胀。上述机制如要成立，也要满足两个必要条件：\n一是固定汇率。在上述价格机制下，国外的通胀因素如果要对贸易结构产生作用，就必须要求本国的汇率固定，否则国内外价格的相对变动会体现为汇率的变化。\n二是本国出口商品的供给价格弹性和进口商品的需求价格弹性都要足够大。如果本国出口商品的供给价格弹性小，即使国外价格变动很大，国内出口也不会受到很大影响。同时，如果国内对进口商品的需求价格弹性也小，进口商品涨价不会显著影响需求量。\n2.3 稳汇率导致的输入性通胀\n传导机制：当国外出现通货膨胀和价格上涨时，会造成外币相对于本币的贬值，本币升值预期会造成大量国际资本的流入。出于维护本国汇率稳定的目的，本国央行会被动增加货币供给，进而刺激国内总需求并导致通胀。\n这种机制成立的必要条件是保持汇率稳定是央行的重要目标。换言之，在三难选择中央行实际上放弃了货币政策的独立性，选择了汇率稳定和资本自由流动。\n2011年关于输入性通胀的讨论\n当前，国际大宗商品市场存在一定的涨价趋势，部分观点将这一趋势与国内PPI的上行相关联，提出对“输入性通胀”的担忧。我们可以简单复盘上一轮关于输入性通胀的集中讨论，也就是2011年。\n如图1所示，当时CPI当月同比增速从2010年初开始持续冲高至2011年7月6.5%，PPI增速也运行在7%左右的高位。当时的经济背景是，全球正处于应对国际金融冲击后的政策大宽松时期，国际大宗商品价格飙升。北海布伦特与WTI原油收盘价均在2011年上半年突破100美元/桶，当年4月，伦敦金属交易所的铜、锡、铅、铝价格同比分别上涨21.4%、72.3%、25.7%和13.9%。芝加哥交易所的玉米、小麦、大豆、豆油价格分别上涨了96.2%、61.2%、44%和48.6%。\n图1：2009-2013年CPI与PPI月同比增速（%）走势\n\n在这样的背景下，市场和学界围绕防范输入性通货膨胀风险展开了一定讨论。\n彭森（2012）全面分析了全球的宽松货币环境、国际资金炒作大宗商品、石油生产国政治不稳定和经济恢复等因素对国内通胀的影响；并从数据表现上描述了国际商品价格通过商品、资本和信息流动渠道对国内价格的传导。\n但是，伍戈（2011）则梳理了输入型通胀的内涵及其传导机理，发现输入性通胀并不能解释历史上各国通胀的差异；并尝试用货币存量与经济总量的偏离程度解释上述通胀差异，有较好的解释效果，由此提出抑制国内通胀的首要手段依然是控制好国内货币总量。中国发展研究基金会也在2011年6月组织研讨会分析当时通胀的成因和趋势。\n简单复盘当时的宏观背景，不难发现国内的刺激政策才是造成通胀的主要原因，所谓国际大宗商品价格上涨，一定程度上是“出口转内销”的结果。\n为应对全球性金融危机, “4万亿”刺激计划逐步推进, 2009年和2010年我国M1 和M2增速均处于20%以上, M2与GDP同比增速差额和M2占GDP比重均处在当时的历史高位。同时，2009年和2010年新增信贷额分别达到9.58万亿元和7.92万亿元。\n根据当时中金公司（2011）的一项测算，2008-2010年，中国贡献了全球新增货币中的60%。[数据来源于《中国发展研究基金会研究参考》2011年第19号，其中记录了当时中金公司代表在2011年6月3日由中国发展研究基金会主办的宏观经济形势分析会上的发言，发言中对这一数据做了表述。]\n大规模资金主要以政策驱动、政府投资的形式进入实体经济, 激发了国内的投资需求和消费需求，稳定了经济增长，但也形成了阶段性的超额需求，抬升了总体价格水平。当相关基建逐渐转换为生产力、促进生产率和总供给的扩大之后，当时的通胀形势也逐渐缓和下来，到了2011年12月，CPI月同比增速开始回落至4.1%，此后又逐步降至2012年7月份的1.8%。\n从结果看，2011年恰是那一轮商品价格的高点，同时也是全球通胀水平的周期性高点。自那以后，全球大宗商品进入了持续5年的下跌周期，对抗通缩压力成为了新的主旋律。\n现阶段中国不具备输入性通胀的条件\n1. 基本事实：PPI明显强于CPI\n从CPI观察价格走势，其主导因素仍集中于食品供给端和疫后需求恢复。猪肉供给持续恢复会带动整体CPI下行，服务业复苏加快，但距离常态还有一定距离，核心CPI已经脱离底部，但持续上行速率不会太高。\n2021年1-3月，CPI累计增速为零，整体CPI的走势依然数主要受高基数和猪肉供给增强的影响。\n1-3月食品类CPI累计同比增速为0.2%，较去年同期20.3%的高增速下降了20.1个百分点。食品类消费品中，猪肉依旧是最大的扰动因素。受此前春节期间冷冻肉投放增加和生猪存栏持续恢复影响，22省市平均猪肉价格已经从2021年1月1日的48.83元/千克降至4月2日的38.9/千克，降幅20.3%。CPI中的猪肉分项在1-3月的累计降幅也达到12.5%，拉动整体CPI在低位运行。\n此外，今年1-3月份，全国未出现影响较大的极端天气，保证了鲜菜等时令性食品供给的充足，鲜菜类CPI1-3月累计同比增速4.8%，较去年同期下降了4.2个百分点。\n图2：CPI与食品分项、猪肉分项月累计同比增速走势\n\n图3：生猪供给对本轮猪价变动起到主要作用\n\n观察剔除了能源和食品影响的核心CPI走势，可见其自2018年以来一路下行的趋势。在2020年，受疫情冲击后的需求收缩影响，这一下行趋势的速率明显加快。2020年，当核心CPI当月同比增速在3月份触及1.2%后，继续一路下降到12月的0.4%。进入2021年，核心CPI当月同比增速为-0.3%，达到历史最低值。但在3月份，当月同比增速0.3%，核心CPI脱离了持续下行的趋势。这主要来源于，2月份以来，我国疫情防控基本扑灭了1月份各地的局部聚集疫情，服务性消费恢复走上了正轨。\n图4：核心CPI与服务CPI当月同比增速走势\n\n展望整体CPI走势，食品尤其是猪肉供需状态仍是不容忽视的因素。根据农业农村部相关负责人表示，按2020年的各月生猪存栏量环比平均递增2.1%的速度，预计到2021年6月份左右，生猪存栏量就会完全恢复到2017年的存栏水平。所以，整体CPI的在下一阶段下行的动力依旧显著。还要注意到服务业逐步恢复但节奏仍偏缓慢，疫后居民消费需求依然偏弱，核心CPI脱离底部后上行的速率预计仍会较低。\n市场普遍谈论的通胀压力实际上主要集中于PPI。3月份PPI同比增4.4%，环比增1.6%，为历史最高环比涨幅。我们用每个工业行业的规模以上企业2020年的营收占比作为权重，按照《上证产业链指数系列编制方案》中的上中下游划分办法，可以计算出上中下游工业行业各自的PPI当月同比增速（图5）。可以发现，整体工业品的价格上涨在数据表现主要来源于产业链上游行业的涨价。\n图5：按营收权重分解上中下游工业行业PPI当月同比增速(%)\n\n但上游工业行业的涨价也并不能一概而论，我们以2020年1月2日的价格为基期，以2021年4月23日的最新数据观察黑色、有色、原油和农产品四大类大宗商品在疫情之后的南华商品指数变动（图6）。与疫情之前相比，黑色金属涨幅最大（152%），其次是有色金属（39%），接着是农产品（19%），而原油则仍有33%的跌幅。\n图6：各类大宗商品的南华商品指数走势\n\n2. 中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险\n如前文所述，输入性通胀有三种主要作用机制（图7），当前讨论实际上基本集中在成本推动途径上。\n综合来看，要产生输入性通胀，至少有要有三个条件：一是本国是国际商品价格变动的接受者；二是固定汇率制度的安排；三是国内各类工业品价格和消费品价格的通畅传导。\n现阶段，这三个条件在中国基本都不成立，中国不必担心输入性通胀的风险。\n图7：输入性通胀三种主要作用机制和必要条件\n\n首先，中国是全球第二大经济体，并不是作为价格接受者的小国经济。中国对大宗商品的需求会对国际大宗商品价格产生显著影响。\n王安建和王高尚（2019）的研究表明，2018 年全球主要40 种矿产资源中，我国有30种矿产消费量居世界第一位[数据来源于《全球矿产资源战略研究工作报告》，王安建、王高尚主编。]。\n根据统计（图8），我国能源和重要矿产消费量中占全球比例超过50%的矿种有12种，超过40%的有23种。这些矿产资源中不乏煤炭、水泥灰岩、铁、锰、铜、铝、铅、锌和磷等大宗。\n图8：2018 年中国主要矿产消费量占全球比例\n数据来源：王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(03):338-344.\n其次，经过多年的改革，目前人民币汇率的弹性大大增强，能够比较充分反映各类经济信息。本轮大宗商品价格上涨的过程中，汇率升值对依赖外部进口的大宗商品价格上涨事实上起到了对冲作用。（图9）。\n图9：南华商品综合指数与人民币汇率指数走势\n\n最后，在本轮经济复苏过程中，CPI和PPI则出现明显背离，只有PPI在快速上升，更能综合反映物价变化的GDP平减指数也没有显著上升。即使中国经济已经持续复苏了4个季度，实际面临的通胀压力也并不大。\n这种背离并不是新现象。2016年之后，PPI与CPI就一直存在持续背离。这至少说明，过去五年里，并没有看到PPI能够向CPI传导的有效证据，从生产端向消费端的价格传导机制并不顺畅。\n综上可知，中国不具备输入性通胀的基础，不必担忧所谓的输入性通胀。国内经济的恢复节奏和结构特征可以解释大部分的大宗商品价格上涨。如前文图6所示，当前国内大宗商品的价格上涨最突出是黑色金属的涨价，有色金属位于其次。而2021年3月分行业的PPI同比增速中，黑色金属的采选业以34.7%的增速位居全行业最高，黑色金属加工业21.5%的增速也位居前列；有色金属加工（21.3%）和有色金属采选（13.3%）的高PPI增速也与有色价格的上涨互相印证。而结合图8数据，在黑色金属中，我国对铬的需求量全球占比超过60%，对锰和铁的需求量则接近50%；有色金属中，我国对钨的需求量全球占比接近80%，对铝、铜的需求量也超过50%。在我国对主要金属矿产需求占全球需求量如此巨大的背景下，国内需求变动才是影响价格的主因。\n通胀是总量问题，通胀的表述隐含着经济过热的意义，这会对货币政策形成掣肘。近两个月的宏观数据表明，我国经济尚处于复苏通道中，核心CPI也刚刚脱离连续下滑的趋势，许多服务性行业虽然在持续恢复，但距离常态还有一定距离，此时讨论通胀压力为时尚早。\n应对大宗商品价格上涨，重点应在于关注它带来的产业链利润分配失调问题。大宗商品价格上涨主要体现为产业链上下游利润的再分配，即上游行业占总体利润的比例越来越高。2016年之后，上游行业占工业企业利润的比重显著上升，2019年略有下降，但依然比2016年之前的水平更高。\n为改善这一产业链利润分配失调局面，一方面，可以继续使用针对性的减税降费措施，改善下游、中小企业的现金流，但考虑到目前财政收支形势的困境，结构性的财政政策发挥作用的空间也是有限的。另一方面，依然要从总量层面扩大总需求，在经济还未恢复到疫情正常水平时，应坚定不移的使用扩张性宏观管理政策，不应对大宗商品价格走势过度反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186880890,"gmtCreate":1623484487710,"gmtModify":1704204916016,"author":{"id":"3575693618857163","authorId":"3575693618857163","name":"SamuelTse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c835f9ee5e2d52dafa611e8a1cf083d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575693618857163","authorIdStr":"3575693618857163"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186880890","repostId":"1105134625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105134625","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623140058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105134625?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 16:14","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The market closure schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105134625","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","content":"<p>With the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaching, the closure arrangements for major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14 (Monday) due to Queen's Birthday, and will reopen as usual from June 15 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>US, UK, and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival, also known as the Dragon Boat Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, or the Heavenly Festival, originated from the worship of natural celestial phenomena and evolved from dragon worship in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven constellations of the Azure Dragon soar in the south, occupying the most \"central\" position of the year, as the line of the fifth line of the Qian Hexagram of the I Ching says: \"The dragon flies in the sky.\" Its origins cover ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and it contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, it has mixed various folk customs into one, and the content of festivals is rich. Dragon boat racing and eating zongzi (sticky rice dumplings) are two major customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and continue to this day.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival created by ancient people to pay homage to the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet from the State of Chu during the Warring States period, committed suicide by jumping into the Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also regarded the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also claims to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E, and Jie Zitui. In general, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the fact that ancient people chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragons in the sky\" to worship the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, injecting the summer season trend of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The market closure schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The market closure schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival is here! Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day on June 14.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 16:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaching, the closure arrangements for major markets are as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad358d24b10a4ecf9c9fa183f3c2ab9b\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 14, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed on June 14 (Monday) due to Queen's Birthday, and will reopen as usual from June 15 (Tuesday).</p><p><b>US, UK, and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Services will not be provided on Monday, June 14, but will resume as usual on Tuesday, June 15.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival, also known as the Dragon Boat Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, or the Heavenly Festival, originated from the worship of natural celestial phenomena and evolved from dragon worship in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in midsummer, the seven constellations of the Azure Dragon soar in the south, occupying the most \"central\" position of the year, as the line of the fifth line of the Qian Hexagram of the I Ching says: \"The dragon flies in the sky.\" Its origins cover ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects, and it contains profound and rich cultural connotations. In the process of inheritance and development, it has mixed various folk customs into one, and the content of festivals is rich. Dragon boat racing and eating zongzi (sticky rice dumplings) are two major customs of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times and continue to this day.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival created by ancient people to pay homage to the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. Legend has it that Qu Yuan, a poet from the State of Chu during the Warring States period, committed suicide by jumping into the Miluo River on May 5th. Later, people also regarded the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan. There are also claims to commemorate Wu Zixu, Cao E, and Jie Zitui. In general, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the fact that ancient people chose the auspicious day of \"flying dragons in the sky\" to worship the Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, injecting the summer season trend of \"curing diseases and preventing epidemics\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105134625","content_text":"临近中国传统节日端午节假期，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。港股：6月14日（周一）休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。澳股：6月14日（周一）因 Queen's Birthday 休市，6月15日（周二）起照常开市。美股、英股、新加坡股市照常交易。沪股通、深股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。港股通：6月14日（周一）不提供服务，6月15日（周二）起照常开通。背景介绍：端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。仲夏端午，苍龙七宿飞升于正南中天，处于全年最“正中”之位，即如《易经·乾卦》第五爻的爻辞曰：“飞龙在天”。其起源涵盖了古老星象文化、人文哲学等方面内容，蕴含着深邃丰厚的文化内涵，在传承发展中杂糅了多种民俗为一体，节俗内容丰富。扒龙舟与食粽是端午节的两大礼俗，这两大礼俗在中国自古传承，至今不辍。端午节，本是上古先民创立用于拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪的节日。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}