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US stocks will face "pain" in the next six months! Why is Morgan Stanley so asserted?

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13:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks will face \"pain\" in the next six months! Why is Morgan Stanley so asserted?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140749092","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。\n如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右","content":"<p>A week ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Just warned that global stock indexes could see a 10% correction in the summer, and expected lower-than-average returns on investment in US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Today,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>He also joined the warning army, thinking that the correction of US stocks will reach about 10% or 15% in the next six months. For very crowded transactions such as doing more commodities and shorting the US dollar, if there is any disappointing disturbance in economic data such as US inflation, it will bring pain to investors.</p><p>In a research report on Monday, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley, pointed out that last year, US stocks experienced abnormal fluctuations due to the fundamentals of the epidemic. By this year, the growth rate of corporate profits is astonishing, and the revision of annual estimates by enterprises is also exaggerated.</p><p>Now, it seems that the conclusion drawn from the above performance may be too optimistic for the US stock market.</p><p>The bank first saw that,<b>In the past four quarters, corporate earnings beat expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record; The correction of corporate profits is also close to 35%, which is also a very high figure. The future decline is inevitable, and it is easily affected.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d059695f172aa3dcbbca7f331ff921\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3029088da6c84f2cc1ee2ede50c6f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The question now, Wilson said, is whether when those two numbers start to slide, they will be so severe that the market will pay attention.</p><p>He further believes that the above scenario is indeed likely to happen, considering that now estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) P/E are also already too high.</p><p>Meanwhile, corporate net profit margins are at historically high levels, while soaring producer input prices are hitting corporate profits. Morgan Stanley says incremental operating margins are now beyond their limits and are likely to disappoint the market even more in the next 12 months.</p><p>Why is that so? The reason for this is that constrained supply and higher input costs have put some pressure on profits, and the Biden administration may raise corporate taxes next year, which will have a further impact on this.</p><p>In summary,<b>Benefiting from trillions of dollars in global fiscal stimulus, corporate earnings have performed well over the past few quarters, even beating Morgan Stanley's previous optimistic expectations. But with rising cost pressures and a cloud of corporate tax hikes, current forecasts seem to be starting to become unrealistic.</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that after the record corporate profits in the first quarter, there was almost no much fluctuation in the US stock market, and the stock prices of several technology leaders FAAMG were even lower than those in early April.</p><p>Considering the sharp correction of corporate earnings after the earnings season, the overall market price remained flat. In other words,<b>The declining P/E has been largely offset by rising earnings expectations.</b></p><p>By this time, investors must ask themselves whether they think valuations will continue to move lower, and whether future earnings revisions can offset that, Wilson cautioned.</p><p>He also mentioned that although most of the clients he has spoken with think the current valuation level of U.S. stocks is reasonable, he still believes that,<b>The downgrade process is not over yet, and the earnings correction cannot offset its impact, with the US stock market likely to see a 10-15% correction in the next six months.</b></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks will face \"pain\" in the next six months! Why is Morgan Stanley so asserted?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks will face \"pain\" in the next six months! Why is Morgan Stanley so asserted?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A week ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Just warned that global stock indexes could see a 10% correction in the summer, and expected lower-than-average returns on investment in US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Today,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>He also joined the warning army, thinking that the correction of US stocks will reach about 10% or 15% in the next six months. For very crowded transactions such as doing more commodities and shorting the US dollar, if there is any disappointing disturbance in economic data such as US inflation, it will bring pain to investors.</p><p>In a research report on Monday, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley, pointed out that last year, US stocks experienced abnormal fluctuations due to the fundamentals of the epidemic. By this year, the growth rate of corporate profits is astonishing, and the revision of annual estimates by enterprises is also exaggerated.</p><p>Now, it seems that the conclusion drawn from the above performance may be too optimistic for the US stock market.</p><p>The bank first saw that,<b>In the past four quarters, corporate earnings beat expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record; The correction of corporate profits is also close to 35%, which is also a very high figure. The future decline is inevitable, and it is easily affected.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d059695f172aa3dcbbca7f331ff921\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3029088da6c84f2cc1ee2ede50c6f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The question now, Wilson said, is whether when those two numbers start to slide, they will be so severe that the market will pay attention.</p><p>He further believes that the above scenario is indeed likely to happen, considering that now estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) P/E are also already too high.</p><p>Meanwhile, corporate net profit margins are at historically high levels, while soaring producer input prices are hitting corporate profits. Morgan Stanley says incremental operating margins are now beyond their limits and are likely to disappoint the market even more in the next 12 months.</p><p>Why is that so? The reason for this is that constrained supply and higher input costs have put some pressure on profits, and the Biden administration may raise corporate taxes next year, which will have a further impact on this.</p><p>In summary,<b>Benefiting from trillions of dollars in global fiscal stimulus, corporate earnings have performed well over the past few quarters, even beating Morgan Stanley's previous optimistic expectations. But with rising cost pressures and a cloud of corporate tax hikes, current forecasts seem to be starting to become unrealistic.</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that after the record corporate profits in the first quarter, there was almost no much fluctuation in the US stock market, and the stock prices of several technology leaders FAAMG were even lower than those in early April.</p><p>Considering the sharp correction of corporate earnings after the earnings season, the overall market price remained flat. In other words,<b>The declining P/E has been largely offset by rising earnings expectations.</b></p><p>By this time, investors must ask themselves whether they think valuations will continue to move lower, and whether future earnings revisions can offset that, Wilson cautioned.</p><p>He also mentioned that although most of the clients he has spoken with think the current valuation level of U.S. stocks is reasonable, he still believes that,<b>The downgrade process is not over yet, and the earnings correction cannot offset its impact, with the US stock market likely to see a 10-15% correction in the next six months.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631926\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631926","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140749092","content_text":"一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。\n如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右，对于做多大宗商品、做空美元等非常拥挤的交易而言，若美国通胀等经济数据有了任何令人失望的风吹草动，就将为投资者们带来痛苦。\n在周一的研报中，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson指出，去年美股受疫情基本面因素扰动经历了异常的波动，到了今年，企业盈利增速惊人，企业对于年度预估的修正也很夸张。\n现在看来，针对美股市场，顺着上述表现所得出的结论，或许已是过于乐观。\n该行首先看到，在过去的四个季度里，企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下一个前所未有的新纪录；企业盈利修正幅度也接近35%，同样是一个非常高的数字，未来的下滑不可避免，且它很容易受到影响。\n\n\nWilson表示，目前的问题在于，当这两个数字开始出现下滑，其严重程度是否会到让市场关注的地步。\n他进一步认为，考虑到现在对未来十二个月（NTM）市盈率的预估也已经过高，上述情况确实有可能会发生。\n与此同时，企业净利率正处于历史高位，而不断飙升的生产者投入价格正在打击企业利润。摩根士丹利称，增量营业利润率现在已经超越了极限，很可能在未来十二个月内令市场更为失望。\n为何如此？其原因在于，供应受限和更高的投入成本为利润带来了一定压力，且明年拜登政府可能上调企业税，将对此造成进一步的影响。\n总结来看，受益于全球数万亿美元的财政刺激，企业盈利在过去几个季度当中表现出色，甚至超过了摩根士丹利此前的乐观预期。但由于成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云徘徊，目前的预测似乎都开始不切实际了起来。\n但值得注意的是，在一季度企业盈利创纪录过后，美股市场几乎没有什么太大波动，科技龙头FAAMG当中的几只，股价甚至比4月初还低。\n考虑到财报季过后企业盈利的大幅修正，整体市场价格仍旧持平。换句话说，不断下滑的市盈率在很大程度上已经被不断上升的盈利预期给抵消了。\nWilson警告称，到了这个时候，投资者必须扪心自问，是否认为估值会继续走低，以及未来的盈利修正能否抵消这一影响。\n他还提到，尽管与他有过交流的大部分客户均认为美股目前的估值水平较为合理，但他仍旧相信，下调评级的过程尚未结束，盈利修正也无法抵消其影响，美股市场未来6个月可能会出现10-15%的调整。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113072093,"gmtCreate":1622589016012,"gmtModify":1704186700108,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"Ace1029","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575704845309016","idStr":"3575704845309016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Same","listText":"Same","text":"Same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113072093","repostId":"113029776","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":113029776,"gmtCreate":1622587350295,"gmtModify":1704186652826,"author":{"id":"3567674467070106","authorId":"3567674467070106","name":"apple26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690f1cb829a1d7c63dd0a0ac190b0f8b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567674467070106","idStr":"3567674467070106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103537484","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375936421,"gmtCreate":1619274229563,"gmtModify":1704722029634,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"Ace1029","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575704845309016","idStr":"3575704845309016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375936421","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166519043","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1775051073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166519043?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-01 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Movement Interpretation | South Korea's semiconductor exports hit a record combined with strong AI demand, triple long semiconductor ETF rose 7.20% in intraday session","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166519043","media":"异动解读","summary":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘中大涨7.20%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，韩国政府最新数据显示，3月份半导体出口额同比飙升151.4%，首次突破300亿美元大关，创下历史新高。这一强劲表现主要得益于存储芯片价格高企以及人工智能（AI）数据中心大规模投资所推动的全球持续需求。此外，半导体行业正进入高景气扩张阶段，算力需求与资本投入共振上行，产业链各环节业绩显著增长，进一步增强了市场对半导体板块未来增长的信心，共同推动了相关杠杆ETF的价格上涨。","content":"<p>Triple Long Semiconductor ETF-Direxion Daily (SOXL) surged 7.20% in the intraday session today, attracting widespread market attention.</p><p>On the news, the latest data from the South Korean government shows that semiconductor exports soared by 151.4% year-on-year in March, breaking through the $30 billion mark for the first time, setting a record high. This strong performance was mainly driven by high memory chip prices and continued global demand driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.</p><p>In addition, the semiconductor industry is entering a stage of high prosperity expansion, the demand for computing power resonates with capital investment, and the performance of all links in the industrial chain has increased significantly, which further enhances the market's confidence in the future growth of the semiconductor sector and jointly promotes the price increase of related leveraged ETFs.</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Movement Interpretation | South Korea's semiconductor exports hit a record combined with strong AI demand, triple long semiconductor ETF rose 7.20% in intraday session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMovement Interpretation | South Korea's semiconductor exports hit a record combined with strong AI demand, triple long semiconductor ETF rose 7.20% in intraday session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-01 21:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Triple Long Semiconductor ETF-Direxion Daily (SOXL) surged 7.20% in the intraday session today, attracting widespread market attention.</p><p>On the news, the latest data from the South Korean government shows that semiconductor exports soared by 151.4% year-on-year in March, breaking through the $30 billion mark for the first time, setting a record high. This strong performance was mainly driven by high memory chip prices and continued global demand driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.</p><p>In addition, the semiconductor industry is entering a stage of high prosperity expansion, the demand for computing power resonates with capital investment, and the performance of all links in the industrial chain has increased significantly, which further enhances the market's confidence in the future growth of the semiconductor sector and jointly promotes the price increase of related leveraged ETFs.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166519043","content_text":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘中大涨7.20%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，韩国政府最新数据显示，3月份半导体出口额同比飙升151.4%，首次突破300亿美元大关，创下历史新高。这一强劲表现主要得益于存储芯片价格高企以及人工智能（AI）数据中心大规模投资所推动的全球持续需求。此外，半导体行业正进入高景气扩张阶段，算力需求与资本投入共振上行，产业链各环节业绩显著增长，进一步增强了市场对半导体板块未来增长的信心，共同推动了相关杠杆ETF的价格上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":195397376,"gmtCreate":1621256177295,"gmtModify":1704354697332,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"Ace1029","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575704845309016","idStr":"3575704845309016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$SKLZ 20210521 17.5 PUT(SKLZ)$</a>Up or down","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$SKLZ 20210521 17.5 PUT(SKLZ)$</a>Up or down","text":"$SKLZ 20210521 17.5 PUT(SKLZ)$Up or down","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b86ab9110d6e18e6c5cc4d6526ea7838","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195397376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375936421,"gmtCreate":1619274229563,"gmtModify":1704722029634,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"Ace1029","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575704845309016","idStr":"3575704845309016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375936421","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166519043","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1775051073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166519043?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-01 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Movement Interpretation | South Korea's semiconductor exports hit a record combined with strong AI demand, triple long semiconductor ETF rose 7.20% in intraday session","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166519043","media":"异动解读","summary":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘中大涨7.20%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，韩国政府最新数据显示，3月份半导体出口额同比飙升151.4%，首次突破300亿美元大关，创下历史新高。这一强劲表现主要得益于存储芯片价格高企以及人工智能（AI）数据中心大规模投资所推动的全球持续需求。此外，半导体行业正进入高景气扩张阶段，算力需求与资本投入共振上行，产业链各环节业绩显著增长，进一步增强了市场对半导体板块未来增长的信心，共同推动了相关杠杆ETF的价格上涨。","content":"<p>Triple Long Semiconductor ETF-Direxion Daily (SOXL) surged 7.20% in the intraday session today, attracting widespread market attention.</p><p>On the news, the latest data from the South Korean government shows that semiconductor exports soared by 151.4% year-on-year in March, breaking through the $30 billion mark for the first time, setting a record high. This strong performance was mainly driven by high memory chip prices and continued global demand driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.</p><p>In addition, the semiconductor industry is entering a stage of high prosperity expansion, the demand for computing power resonates with capital investment, and the performance of all links in the industrial chain has increased significantly, which further enhances the market's confidence in the future growth of the semiconductor sector and jointly promotes the price increase of related leveraged ETFs.</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Movement Interpretation | South Korea's semiconductor exports hit a record combined with strong AI demand, triple long semiconductor ETF rose 7.20% in intraday session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMovement Interpretation | South Korea's semiconductor exports hit a record combined with strong AI demand, triple long semiconductor ETF rose 7.20% in intraday session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-01 21:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Triple Long Semiconductor ETF-Direxion Daily (SOXL) surged 7.20% in the intraday session today, attracting widespread market attention.</p><p>On the news, the latest data from the South Korean government shows that semiconductor exports soared by 151.4% year-on-year in March, breaking through the $30 billion mark for the first time, setting a record high. This strong performance was mainly driven by high memory chip prices and continued global demand driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.</p><p>In addition, the semiconductor industry is entering a stage of high prosperity expansion, the demand for computing power resonates with capital investment, and the performance of all links in the industrial chain has increased significantly, which further enhances the market's confidence in the future growth of the semiconductor sector and jointly promotes the price increase of related leveraged ETFs.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166519043","content_text":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘中大涨7.20%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，韩国政府最新数据显示，3月份半导体出口额同比飙升151.4%，首次突破300亿美元大关，创下历史新高。这一强劲表现主要得益于存储芯片价格高企以及人工智能（AI）数据中心大规模投资所推动的全球持续需求。此外，半导体行业正进入高景气扩张阶段，算力需求与资本投入共振上行，产业链各环节业绩显著增长，进一步增强了市场对半导体板块未来增长的信心，共同推动了相关杠杆ETF的价格上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110290586,"gmtCreate":1622455593845,"gmtModify":1704184664399,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"Ace1029","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575704845309016","idStr":"3575704845309016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110290586","repostId":"1172362239","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581714447881138","authorId":"3581714447881138","name":"nuxezt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59377d9d4868bc55b936ae5d44ea9d14","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581714447881138","idStr":"3581714447881138"},"content":"Like 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>hold","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$hold","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b8ce880407e2781c151c51e698cb72","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806404539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113072093,"gmtCreate":1622589016012,"gmtModify":1704186700108,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"Ace1029","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575704845309016","idStr":"3575704845309016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Same","listText":"Same","text":"Same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113072093","repostId":"113029776","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":113029776,"gmtCreate":1622587350295,"gmtModify":1704186652826,"author":{"id":"3567674467070106","authorId":"3567674467070106","name":"apple26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690f1cb829a1d7c63dd0a0ac190b0f8b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567674467070106","idStr":"3567674467070106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>需要多點耐心?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>需要多點耐心?","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$需要多點耐心?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0162e790493688f12c5340766979dff5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113029776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111872659,"gmtCreate":1622677200071,"gmtModify":1704188592626,"author":{"id":"3575704845309016","authorId":"3575704845309016","name":"Ace1029","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575704845309016","idStr":"3575704845309016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?omg","listText":"?omg","text":"?omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111872659","repostId":"2140749092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140749092","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622612705,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2140749092?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-02 13:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks will face \"pain\" in the next six months! Why is Morgan Stanley so asserted?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140749092","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。\n如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右","content":"<p>A week ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Just warned that global stock indexes could see a 10% correction in the summer, and expected lower-than-average returns on investment in US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Today,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>He also joined the warning army, thinking that the correction of US stocks will reach about 10% or 15% in the next six months. For very crowded transactions such as doing more commodities and shorting the US dollar, if there is any disappointing disturbance in economic data such as US inflation, it will bring pain to investors.</p><p>In a research report on Monday, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley, pointed out that last year, US stocks experienced abnormal fluctuations due to the fundamentals of the epidemic. By this year, the growth rate of corporate profits is astonishing, and the revision of annual estimates by enterprises is also exaggerated.</p><p>Now, it seems that the conclusion drawn from the above performance may be too optimistic for the US stock market.</p><p>The bank first saw that,<b>In the past four quarters, corporate earnings beat expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record; The correction of corporate profits is also close to 35%, which is also a very high figure. The future decline is inevitable, and it is easily affected.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d059695f172aa3dcbbca7f331ff921\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3029088da6c84f2cc1ee2ede50c6f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The question now, Wilson said, is whether when those two numbers start to slide, they will be so severe that the market will pay attention.</p><p>He further believes that the above scenario is indeed likely to happen, considering that now estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) P/E are also already too high.</p><p>Meanwhile, corporate net profit margins are at historically high levels, while soaring producer input prices are hitting corporate profits. Morgan Stanley says incremental operating margins are now beyond their limits and are likely to disappoint the market even more in the next 12 months.</p><p>Why is that so? The reason for this is that constrained supply and higher input costs have put some pressure on profits, and the Biden administration may raise corporate taxes next year, which will have a further impact on this.</p><p>In summary,<b>Benefiting from trillions of dollars in global fiscal stimulus, corporate earnings have performed well over the past few quarters, even beating Morgan Stanley's previous optimistic expectations. But with rising cost pressures and a cloud of corporate tax hikes, current forecasts seem to be starting to become unrealistic.</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that after the record corporate profits in the first quarter, there was almost no much fluctuation in the US stock market, and the stock prices of several technology leaders FAAMG were even lower than those in early April.</p><p>Considering the sharp correction of corporate earnings after the earnings season, the overall market price remained flat. In other words,<b>The declining P/E has been largely offset by rising earnings expectations.</b></p><p>By this time, investors must ask themselves whether they think valuations will continue to move lower, and whether future earnings revisions can offset that, Wilson cautioned.</p><p>He also mentioned that although most of the clients he has spoken with think the current valuation level of U.S. stocks is reasonable, he still believes that,<b>The downgrade process is not over yet, and the earnings correction cannot offset its impact, with the US stock market likely to see a 10-15% correction in the next six months.</b></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks will face \"pain\" in the next six months! Why is Morgan Stanley so asserted?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks will face \"pain\" in the next six months! Why is Morgan Stanley so asserted?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A week ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Just warned that global stock indexes could see a 10% correction in the summer, and expected lower-than-average returns on investment in US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>Today,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>He also joined the warning army, thinking that the correction of US stocks will reach about 10% or 15% in the next six months. For very crowded transactions such as doing more commodities and shorting the US dollar, if there is any disappointing disturbance in economic data such as US inflation, it will bring pain to investors.</p><p>In a research report on Monday, Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley, pointed out that last year, US stocks experienced abnormal fluctuations due to the fundamentals of the epidemic. By this year, the growth rate of corporate profits is astonishing, and the revision of annual estimates by enterprises is also exaggerated.</p><p>Now, it seems that the conclusion drawn from the above performance may be too optimistic for the US stock market.</p><p>The bank first saw that,<b>In the past four quarters, corporate earnings beat expectations by as much as 20%, setting an unprecedented new record; The correction of corporate profits is also close to 35%, which is also a very high figure. The future decline is inevitable, and it is easily affected.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d059695f172aa3dcbbca7f331ff921\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3029088da6c84f2cc1ee2ede50c6f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The question now, Wilson said, is whether when those two numbers start to slide, they will be so severe that the market will pay attention.</p><p>He further believes that the above scenario is indeed likely to happen, considering that now estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) P/E are also already too high.</p><p>Meanwhile, corporate net profit margins are at historically high levels, while soaring producer input prices are hitting corporate profits. Morgan Stanley says incremental operating margins are now beyond their limits and are likely to disappoint the market even more in the next 12 months.</p><p>Why is that so? The reason for this is that constrained supply and higher input costs have put some pressure on profits, and the Biden administration may raise corporate taxes next year, which will have a further impact on this.</p><p>In summary,<b>Benefiting from trillions of dollars in global fiscal stimulus, corporate earnings have performed well over the past few quarters, even beating Morgan Stanley's previous optimistic expectations. But with rising cost pressures and a cloud of corporate tax hikes, current forecasts seem to be starting to become unrealistic.</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that after the record corporate profits in the first quarter, there was almost no much fluctuation in the US stock market, and the stock prices of several technology leaders FAAMG were even lower than those in early April.</p><p>Considering the sharp correction of corporate earnings after the earnings season, the overall market price remained flat. In other words,<b>The declining P/E has been largely offset by rising earnings expectations.</b></p><p>By this time, investors must ask themselves whether they think valuations will continue to move lower, and whether future earnings revisions can offset that, Wilson cautioned.</p><p>He also mentioned that although most of the clients he has spoken with think the current valuation level of U.S. stocks is reasonable, he still believes that,<b>The downgrade process is not over yet, and the earnings correction cannot offset its impact, with the US stock market likely to see a 10-15% correction in the next six months.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631926\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631926","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140749092","content_text":"一周之前，摩根大通刚刚警告称，全球股指可能会在夏季出现10%的回调，并且预计今年下半年美股的投资回报率将低于均值。\n如今，摩根士丹利也加入了警告大军，认为美股未来半年的回调幅度将达到10%或15%左右，对于做多大宗商品、做空美元等非常拥挤的交易而言，若美国通胀等经济数据有了任何令人失望的风吹草动，就将为投资者们带来痛苦。\n在周一的研报中，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson指出，去年美股受疫情基本面因素扰动经历了异常的波动，到了今年，企业盈利增速惊人，企业对于年度预估的修正也很夸张。\n现在看来，针对美股市场，顺着上述表现所得出的结论，或许已是过于乐观。\n该行首先看到，在过去的四个季度里，企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下一个前所未有的新纪录；企业盈利修正幅度也接近35%，同样是一个非常高的数字，未来的下滑不可避免，且它很容易受到影响。\n\n\nWilson表示，目前的问题在于，当这两个数字开始出现下滑，其严重程度是否会到让市场关注的地步。\n他进一步认为，考虑到现在对未来十二个月（NTM）市盈率的预估也已经过高，上述情况确实有可能会发生。\n与此同时，企业净利率正处于历史高位，而不断飙升的生产者投入价格正在打击企业利润。摩根士丹利称，增量营业利润率现在已经超越了极限，很可能在未来十二个月内令市场更为失望。\n为何如此？其原因在于，供应受限和更高的投入成本为利润带来了一定压力，且明年拜登政府可能上调企业税，将对此造成进一步的影响。\n总结来看，受益于全球数万亿美元的财政刺激，企业盈利在过去几个季度当中表现出色，甚至超过了摩根士丹利此前的乐观预期。但由于成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云徘徊，目前的预测似乎都开始不切实际了起来。\n但值得注意的是，在一季度企业盈利创纪录过后，美股市场几乎没有什么太大波动，科技龙头FAAMG当中的几只，股价甚至比4月初还低。\n考虑到财报季过后企业盈利的大幅修正，整体市场价格仍旧持平。换句话说，不断下滑的市盈率在很大程度上已经被不断上升的盈利预期给抵消了。\nWilson警告称，到了这个时候，投资者必须扪心自问，是否认为估值会继续走低，以及未来的盈利修正能否抵消这一影响。\n他还提到，尽管与他有过交流的大部分客户均认为美股目前的估值水平较为合理，但他仍旧相信，下调评级的过程尚未结束，盈利修正也无法抵消其影响，美股市场未来6个月可能会出现10-15%的调整。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}