• The U.S. government shutdown is delaying many crucial economic data releases (jobs, inflation reports, etc.), which weakens the Fed’s visibility into the economy just when they need it most.  • Because of those delays, the FOMC minutes from the September meeting become extra important: they may reveal internal views, disagreements, and the balance of hawkish vs dovish sentiment among policymakers.  • The minutes are expected to shed light on how much concern officials had about the labor market, inflation momentum, and whether some were pushing for more aggressive cuts vs others favoring caution.  • In this uncertain environment, the Fed is more likely to proceed “meeting by meeting” — reacting to incoming data (or proxies) rather than committing to a fixed path.  • Some member

The immediate catalyst: OpenAI and AMD announced a multi-year chip supply deal in which: • OpenAI will use AMD’s upcoming MI450 GPUs to eventually deploy 6 gigawatts of compute.  • As part of the agreement, OpenAI gets a warrant to purchase up to 160 million AMD shares at a very low price, which corresponds to up to ~10% of AMD if certain conditions are met.  • Analysts are re-revisiting AMD’s AI potential. For example, Jefferies upgraded its rating, citing the AI deal as transformative.  So, the market is reacting to a major validation of AMD’s role in AI infrastructure, which is a high-growth domain.

Jane Street isn’t your typical Wall Street firm. It’s a quiet giant—no flashy commercials, no retail apps—yet it reportedly earned $20 billion in profits in just six months. That staggering figure sparks a tempting question: could an ordinary trader ever trade like Jane Street? The short answer is no—and yes, in spirit. Jane Street thrives on quantitative trading, using mathematical models, algorithms, and real-time data to exploit tiny inefficiencies in global markets. Its systems process millions of transactions per day, often holding positions for mere seconds. The profits come not from lucky bets but from speed, precision, and statistical discipline. Every trade is tested, simulated, and risk-controlled. Emotion doesn’t decide; math does. For most individual traders, matching that infr

Jane Street isn’t your typical Wall Street firm. It’s a quiet giant—no flashy commercials, no retail apps—yet it reportedly earned $20 billion in profits in just six months. That staggering figure sparks a tempting question: could an ordinary trader ever trade like Jane Street? The short answer is no—and yes, in spirit. Jane Street thrives on quantitative trading, using mathematical models, algorithms, and real-time data to exploit tiny inefficiencies in global markets. Its systems process millions of transactions per day, often holding positions for mere seconds. The profits come not from lucky bets but from speed, precision, and statistical discipline. Every trade is tested, simulated, and risk-controlled. Emotion doesn’t decide; math does. For most individual traders, matching that infr

My take: Is 10× likely? What might be more realistic? If I were to put odds (just ballpark) on whether PLUG becomes a 10× over, say, the next 5-10 years, I’d say it’s possible but unlikely, unless: • They can execute very well, • Avoid too much dilution, • Benefit from strong policy tailwinds, • And the hydrogen market (especially green hydrogen) scales faster and cheaper than many expect. More realistic scenarios: • It modestly multiplies (maybe 2×-5×) if things go right but not perfect. • If things go poorly, the possibility of flat returns or significant downside is real.