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2021-12-23

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2021-06-16

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Buy Boeing Stock Because ‘a Change Is Gonna Come’

2021-06-16

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BRIEF-Cruise Says GM Financial Is Working With Cruise & Providing A $5 Bln Line Of Credit To Finance Expansion Of Fleet

2021-06-16

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LIVE MARKETS-New York apartment rents pop as banks dis remote work

2021-06-15

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BRIEF-Microsoft Submits Comments To SEC On Climate Change Disclosure

2021-06-15

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LIVE MARKETS-Real estate's big start looks to get even better -MS

2021-06-14

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BRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 374,397,205 Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine As Of June 12 Versus 373,413,945 Doses Delivered As Of June 11

2021-06-14

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2021-06-14

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2021-06-14

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Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years

2021-06-13

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Why direct indexing is gaining traction with financial advisers and their clients

2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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AMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares

2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited

2021-06-13

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S&P ekes out gains to close languid week

2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare

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This Is The Ultimate Warren Buffett Stock, But Should You Buy It?

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14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy Boeing Stock Because ‘a Change Is Gonna Come’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180386317","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock in Boeing caught an upgrade Tuesday as a Wall Street analyst noted that things are looking up for the commercial aerospace giant and the industry as a whole.Cowen analyst Cai von Rumohr upgraded the shares to Buy from Hold and raised his target for the price to $290 from $240 a share. 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Over the holiday weekend, U.S. commercial air traffic was down less than 30% compared with 2019, a smaller drop than on recent weekends.</p>\n<p>More people on planes is good news for all aerospace-related stocks.</p>\n<p>Von Rumohr also sees a change coming in demand for commercial aircraft. Governments and airlines are increasingly focused on reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, and new planes emit less of the greenhouse gas, so replacement demand could rise faster than investors expect. Lower operating costs, of course, are an additional reason to replace planes.</p>\n<p>He also pointed out that the global fleet of wide-body, or twin-aisle aircraft, is older than the narrow-body aircraft in use. That makes them more likely to be replaced. A snapback in wide-body order rates has the potential to help Boeing a little more than&nbsp;Airbus&nbsp;(AIR.France) because Boeing has a bigger market share in wide-bodies. Still, any order pickup will benefit both.</p>\n<p>As air traffic returns to normal, potentially emboldening airlines to buy, von Rumohr projects Boeing will generate $21 of free cash flow per share by 2024. That cash flow supports his $290&nbsp;target price.</p>\n<p>Right now, Boeing is burning through cash because deliveries dropped dramatically amid Covid-19 lockdowns. In 2017 and 2018, before the pandemic, and before the 737 MAX jet was grounded in 2019, Boeing generated more than $20 in free cash flow per share.</p>\n<p>While the S&amp;P 500 trades for a free cash yield—essentially free cash flow divided by the stock price—of about 3%, Boeing has historically traded for a yield closer to 6%. With $21 in free cash flow and a yield of 6%, a share price of $350 is possible by 2024, offering attractive returns in coming years with shares trading at about $250.</p>\n<p>With the upgrade, 53% of analysts covering the stock rate shares at Buy. The&nbsp;average&nbsp;Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&amp;P 500 is about 55%.</p>\n<p>Boeing was a much more popular stock before the pandemic and the grounding of the 737 MAX jet between March 2019 and December 2020. In February 2019, more than 76% of analysts covering the company rated shares Buy. The share price was almost $400.</p>\n<p>Boeing stock rose 1% in 2019 and dropped 34% in 2020. Shares are up about 19% year to date, better than comparable gains of the overall market.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy Boeing Stock Because ‘a Change Is Gonna Come’</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy Boeing Stock Because ‘a Change Is Gonna Come’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-boeing-stock-cowen-rating-upgrade-51622566557?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock in Boeing caught an upgrade Tuesday as a Wall Street analyst noted that things are looking up for the commercial aerospace giant and the industry as a whole.\nBoeing stock (ticker: BA) was up 3% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-boeing-stock-cowen-rating-upgrade-51622566557?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-boeing-stock-cowen-rating-upgrade-51622566557?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180386317","content_text":"Stock in Boeing caught an upgrade Tuesday as a Wall Street analyst noted that things are looking up for the commercial aerospace giant and the industry as a whole.\nBoeing stock (ticker: BA) was up 3% on Tuesday. \nCowen analyst Cai von Rumohr upgraded the shares to Buy from Hold and raised his target for the price to $290 from $240 a share. His belief that “a change is gonna come” underpins his more bullish view.\nThe first change is air traffic. Air travel is picking up after a moribund, pandemic-affected 2020. More than1.9 million people boarded planes in the U.S. on Monday, the highest level since March 2020. Over the holiday weekend, U.S. commercial air traffic was down less than 30% compared with 2019, a smaller drop than on recent weekends.\nMore people on planes is good news for all aerospace-related stocks.\nVon Rumohr also sees a change coming in demand for commercial aircraft. Governments and airlines are increasingly focused on reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, and new planes emit less of the greenhouse gas, so replacement demand could rise faster than investors expect. Lower operating costs, of course, are an additional reason to replace planes.\nHe also pointed out that the global fleet of wide-body, or twin-aisle aircraft, is older than the narrow-body aircraft in use. That makes them more likely to be replaced. A snapback in wide-body order rates has the potential to help Boeing a little more than Airbus (AIR.France) because Boeing has a bigger market share in wide-bodies. Still, any order pickup will benefit both.\nAs air traffic returns to normal, potentially emboldening airlines to buy, von Rumohr projects Boeing will generate $21 of free cash flow per share by 2024. That cash flow supports his $290 target price.\nRight now, Boeing is burning through cash because deliveries dropped dramatically amid Covid-19 lockdowns. In 2017 and 2018, before the pandemic, and before the 737 MAX jet was grounded in 2019, Boeing generated more than $20 in free cash flow per share.\nWhile the S&P 500 trades for a free cash yield—essentially free cash flow divided by the stock price—of about 3%, Boeing has historically traded for a yield closer to 6%. With $21 in free cash flow and a yield of 6%, a share price of $350 is possible by 2024, offering attractive returns in coming years with shares trading at about $250.\nWith the upgrade, 53% of analysts covering the stock rate shares at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%.\nBoeing was a much more popular stock before the pandemic and the grounding of the 737 MAX jet between March 2019 and December 2020. In February 2019, more than 76% of analysts covering the company rated shares Buy. The share price was almost $400.\nBoeing stock rose 1% in 2019 and dropped 34% in 2020. Shares are up about 19% year to date, better than comparable gains of the overall market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160350441,"gmtCreate":1623773226783,"gmtModify":1703819077263,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160350441","repostId":"2143578147","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143578147","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623767401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143578147?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-Cruise Says GM Financial Is Working With Cruise & Providing A $5 Bln Line Of Credit To Finance Expansion Of Fleet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143578147","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 15 (Reuters) - CRUISE:   * CRUISE - GM FINANCIAL IS WORKING WITH CRUISE AND PROVIDING A $5 BILL","content":"<html><body><p>June 15 (Reuters) - CRUISE:</p><p>   * CRUISE - GM FINANCIAL IS WORKING WITH CRUISE AND PROVIDING A $5 BILLION LINE OF CREDIT TO FINANCE EXPANSION OF FLEET</p><p>   * CRUISE - IN PAST MONTH, GM BEGAN ASSEMBLY OF FIRST OF AROUND 100 PRE-PRODUCTION CRUISE ORIGIN VEHICLES TO BE BUILT THIS SUMMER FOR VALIDATION TESTING</p><p>Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Cruise Says GM Financial Is Working With Cruise & Providing A $5 Bln Line Of Credit To Finance Expansion Of Fleet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Cruise Says GM Financial Is Working With Cruise & Providing A $5 Bln Line Of Credit To Finance Expansion Of Fleet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 22:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>June 15 (Reuters) - CRUISE:</p><p>   * CRUISE - GM FINANCIAL IS WORKING WITH CRUISE AND PROVIDING A $5 BILLION LINE OF CREDIT TO FINANCE EXPANSION OF FLEET</p><p>   * CRUISE - IN PAST MONTH, GM BEGAN ASSEMBLY OF FIRST OF AROUND 100 PRE-PRODUCTION CRUISE ORIGIN VEHICLES TO BE BUILT THIS SUMMER FOR VALIDATION TESTING</p><p>Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143578147","content_text":"June 15 (Reuters) - CRUISE:   * CRUISE - GM FINANCIAL IS WORKING WITH CRUISE AND PROVIDING A $5 BILLION LINE OF CREDIT TO FINANCE EXPANSION OF FLEET   * CRUISE - IN PAST MONTH, GM BEGAN ASSEMBLY OF FIRST OF AROUND 100 PRE-PRODUCTION CRUISE ORIGIN VEHICLES TO BE BUILT THIS SUMMER FOR VALIDATION TESTINGFurther company coverage:    ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160326562,"gmtCreate":1623773140856,"gmtModify":1703819069502,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160326562","repostId":"2143752015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143752015","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623768326,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143752015?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"LIVE MARKETS-New York apartment rents pop as banks dis remote work","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143752015","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Major U.S. stock indexes modestly red; small caps underperform   * Materials weakest major S&P sec","content":"<html><body><p>* Major U.S. stock indexes modestly red; small caps underperform</p><p>   * Materials weakest major S&amp;P sector; energy leads gainers</p><p>   * Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%</p><p>   * Dollar ~flat; gold off, crude up; bitcoin down slightly</p><p>   * U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.50%</p><p>    June 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com</p><p>   NEW YORK APARTMENT RENTS POP AS BANKS DIS REMOTE WORK (1045 EDT/1445 GMT</p><p>   Perhaps bankers in the Big Apple didn't get the memo on remote work, or are hearing a different tune than big tech on the West Coast.</p><p>   While all gateway markets are showing signs of recovery in apartment rentals, some are recovering faster than others, with a notable difference between New York and Seattle and San Francisco, according to Yardi Matrix.</p><p>   Apartment rents increased 3.4% on a month-over-month basis in New York in May, well above the other top 30 U.S. metro areas that Yardi tracks in its National Multifamily Report.</p><p>   Seattle and San Francisco rebounded, but only at 0.2% and 0.3% growth month over month, respectively, said Yardi, which researches U.S. commercial real estate.</p><p>   The difference could be due to the type of industries in the three cities and their return-to-work plans, Yardi said.</p><p>   New York banks are requiring employees to return to the office this summer, while tech workers in Seattle and San Francisco are more likely to be able to work on a hybrid or fully remote schedule, Yardi said.</p><p>   James Gorman, chief executive at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>   , said Monday that if most employees are not back at the bank's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MHC.AU\">Manhattan</a> headquarters in September, he will be \"very disappointed.\"  </p><p>   <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc    said last week it was opening up remote work as an option to all levels of employees across the company, starting on Tuesday, and expects to reopen all its U.S. offices by October.  </p><p>   Alphabet Inc's Google    and Microsoft Corp   , have given employees options to choose their work location and remote work preferences. </p><p>   Multifamily rents rose 2.5% year-over-year in May to almost exactly where rent growth was in March 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic hit, Yardi said.</p><p>   Rents grew $12 in May to $1,428, the largest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-month increase in Yardi's data set history, it said.</p><p>    (Herbert Lash)    </p><p>   *****</p><p>   DATA ROUND ONE: RETAIL SALES, PPI, EMPIRE STATE (1000 EDT/1400 GMT)</p><p>   An onslaught of reports unleashed on Tuesday suggests an economy entering a new phase of recovery from the pandemic recession, with freshly-jabbed consumers leaving their houses to find inflation running hotter than the weather.     </p><p>   Sales at U.S. retailers    fell 1.3% last month according to the Commerce Department, steeper than the anticipated 0.8% drop, reversing April's upwardly-revised 0.9% gain.  </p><p>   In part, the decline reflects consumer demand pivoting back from goods to customer-facing services as more Americans are inoculated and taking advantage of lifting social distancing restrictions. </p><p>   Receipts at bars/restaurants and department stores, for example, jumped by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, and gasoline sales rose by 0.7%.</p><p>   On the other hand, sales of home improvement goods plunged by 5.9% and home electronics slid 3.4%.</p><p>   The overall pullback suggests a \"satiated demand for goods\" as \"higher prices weighed on consumers’ buying attitudes,\" writes Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.  </p><p>   \"While some will interpret this as a sign of wary households,\" Daco adds, the report signals \"ongoing demand rotation as vaccinated consumers splurge on services.</p><p>   Core retail sales, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services - and corresponds closely with the personal consumption component of GDP - dropped by 0.7%.</p><p>   A report from the Labor Department showed the producer price index (PPI)    - or the prices U.S. goods makers get for their wares at the factory loading dock - rose at a faster pace in May than analysts expected.</p><p>   Monthly headline PPI rose by 0.8%, running hotter than the 0.6% growth projected by economists.</p><p>   On an annual basis, core PPI - which strips out food, energy and trade services - accelerated to 5.3% from April's 4.6% pace.</p><p>   \"Headline, core and core ex-trade services prices are well above the 2% target,\" notes Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. \"However, the Fed is expected to continue to view building pressures as transient.\"</p><p>   The graphic below shows how year-over-year core PPI stacks up among other major indicators relative to the Fed's average annual 2% target:</p><p>   The demand U-turn away from goods back to services appears to be showing itself in data from the New York Fed, which showed manufacturing activity in New York State stepped on the brakes in May.</p><p>   The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State index</p><p>  plunged nearly seven points to a reading of 17.4, well below the 23 consensus.</p><p>   An Empire State number above zero signifies increased activity over the previous month.</p><p>   \"Manufacturing is doing well, but activity is no longer accelerating,\" says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. </p><p>   But Shepherdson outpoints unfilled orders and prices paid components \"suggests a marginal easing of supply constraints,\" a welcome development amid the ongoing demand/supply imbalance.</p><p>   But Tuesday isn't done with us. Industrial production, inventories and homebuilder sentiment remain on tap. </p><p>   Investors were taking a breather out of the starting gate, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq slipping back from Monday's record closing highs.    </p><p>   (Stephen Culp)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   S&amp;P 500: SLEEPWALKING (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)</p><p>   The S&amp;P 500    posted another record close on Monday. While only about halfway into June, that marked its 29th record-high finish so far this year vs 33 for all of 2020.</p><p>   Despite the levitation, SPX action in many ways has grown zombie-like. Monday's range as a percentage of the prior session's close was just 0.51%. With this, nearly half of the 18 smallest daily ranges so far this year, have occurred in the past 13 trading days. For the week, the SPX is on track for its tightest range since September 22, 2017.</p><p>   Meanwhile, volatility close-to-close, on a weekly basis, has contracted to its lowest level since mid-January 2020, or roughly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> month ahead of the February 2020 market top:</p><p>   Implied volatility has also recently collapsed. The CBOE Volatility Index    ended last Friday at its lowest level since February 20, 2020, or one day after the SPX's February 19, 2020 peak.</p><p>   Thus, with significant event risks this week in the form of the FOMC Meeting results on Wednesday  , and a quadruple-witching Friday  , the benchmark index appears especially ripe for much more spirited action.</p><p>   It now remains to be seen whether the SPX will soon begin a well-rested sprint, or if it will be shaken from its slumber by something that goes bump in the night.</p><p>   (Terence Gabriel)</p><p>   ***** </p><p>   FOR TUESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:  </p><p>    &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ SPX06152021     Retail sales     Inflation     Empire State    </p><p>   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><p>(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>LIVE MARKETS-New York apartment rents pop as banks dis remote work</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLIVE MARKETS-New York apartment rents pop as banks dis remote work\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 22:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>* Major U.S. stock indexes modestly red; small caps underperform</p><p>   * Materials weakest major S&amp;P sector; energy leads gainers</p><p>   * Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%</p><p>   * Dollar ~flat; gold off, crude up; bitcoin down slightly</p><p>   * U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.50%</p><p>    June 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com</p><p>   NEW YORK APARTMENT RENTS POP AS BANKS DIS REMOTE WORK (1045 EDT/1445 GMT</p><p>   Perhaps bankers in the Big Apple didn't get the memo on remote work, or are hearing a different tune than big tech on the West Coast.</p><p>   While all gateway markets are showing signs of recovery in apartment rentals, some are recovering faster than others, with a notable difference between New York and Seattle and San Francisco, according to Yardi Matrix.</p><p>   Apartment rents increased 3.4% on a month-over-month basis in New York in May, well above the other top 30 U.S. metro areas that Yardi tracks in its National Multifamily Report.</p><p>   Seattle and San Francisco rebounded, but only at 0.2% and 0.3% growth month over month, respectively, said Yardi, which researches U.S. commercial real estate.</p><p>   The difference could be due to the type of industries in the three cities and their return-to-work plans, Yardi said.</p><p>   New York banks are requiring employees to return to the office this summer, while tech workers in Seattle and San Francisco are more likely to be able to work on a hybrid or fully remote schedule, Yardi said.</p><p>   James Gorman, chief executive at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>   , said Monday that if most employees are not back at the bank's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MHC.AU\">Manhattan</a> headquarters in September, he will be \"very disappointed.\"  </p><p>   <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc    said last week it was opening up remote work as an option to all levels of employees across the company, starting on Tuesday, and expects to reopen all its U.S. offices by October.  </p><p>   Alphabet Inc's Google    and Microsoft Corp   , have given employees options to choose their work location and remote work preferences. </p><p>   Multifamily rents rose 2.5% year-over-year in May to almost exactly where rent growth was in March 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic hit, Yardi said.</p><p>   Rents grew $12 in May to $1,428, the largest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-month increase in Yardi's data set history, it said.</p><p>    (Herbert Lash)    </p><p>   *****</p><p>   DATA ROUND ONE: RETAIL SALES, PPI, EMPIRE STATE (1000 EDT/1400 GMT)</p><p>   An onslaught of reports unleashed on Tuesday suggests an economy entering a new phase of recovery from the pandemic recession, with freshly-jabbed consumers leaving their houses to find inflation running hotter than the weather.     </p><p>   Sales at U.S. retailers    fell 1.3% last month according to the Commerce Department, steeper than the anticipated 0.8% drop, reversing April's upwardly-revised 0.9% gain.  </p><p>   In part, the decline reflects consumer demand pivoting back from goods to customer-facing services as more Americans are inoculated and taking advantage of lifting social distancing restrictions. </p><p>   Receipts at bars/restaurants and department stores, for example, jumped by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, and gasoline sales rose by 0.7%.</p><p>   On the other hand, sales of home improvement goods plunged by 5.9% and home electronics slid 3.4%.</p><p>   The overall pullback suggests a \"satiated demand for goods\" as \"higher prices weighed on consumers’ buying attitudes,\" writes Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.  </p><p>   \"While some will interpret this as a sign of wary households,\" Daco adds, the report signals \"ongoing demand rotation as vaccinated consumers splurge on services.</p><p>   Core retail sales, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services - and corresponds closely with the personal consumption component of GDP - dropped by 0.7%.</p><p>   A report from the Labor Department showed the producer price index (PPI)    - or the prices U.S. goods makers get for their wares at the factory loading dock - rose at a faster pace in May than analysts expected.</p><p>   Monthly headline PPI rose by 0.8%, running hotter than the 0.6% growth projected by economists.</p><p>   On an annual basis, core PPI - which strips out food, energy and trade services - accelerated to 5.3% from April's 4.6% pace.</p><p>   \"Headline, core and core ex-trade services prices are well above the 2% target,\" notes Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. \"However, the Fed is expected to continue to view building pressures as transient.\"</p><p>   The graphic below shows how year-over-year core PPI stacks up among other major indicators relative to the Fed's average annual 2% target:</p><p>   The demand U-turn away from goods back to services appears to be showing itself in data from the New York Fed, which showed manufacturing activity in New York State stepped on the brakes in May.</p><p>   The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State index</p><p>  plunged nearly seven points to a reading of 17.4, well below the 23 consensus.</p><p>   An Empire State number above zero signifies increased activity over the previous month.</p><p>   \"Manufacturing is doing well, but activity is no longer accelerating,\" says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. </p><p>   But Shepherdson outpoints unfilled orders and prices paid components \"suggests a marginal easing of supply constraints,\" a welcome development amid the ongoing demand/supply imbalance.</p><p>   But Tuesday isn't done with us. Industrial production, inventories and homebuilder sentiment remain on tap. </p><p>   Investors were taking a breather out of the starting gate, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq slipping back from Monday's record closing highs.    </p><p>   (Stephen Culp)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   S&amp;P 500: SLEEPWALKING (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)</p><p>   The S&amp;P 500    posted another record close on Monday. While only about halfway into June, that marked its 29th record-high finish so far this year vs 33 for all of 2020.</p><p>   Despite the levitation, SPX action in many ways has grown zombie-like. Monday's range as a percentage of the prior session's close was just 0.51%. With this, nearly half of the 18 smallest daily ranges so far this year, have occurred in the past 13 trading days. For the week, the SPX is on track for its tightest range since September 22, 2017.</p><p>   Meanwhile, volatility close-to-close, on a weekly basis, has contracted to its lowest level since mid-January 2020, or roughly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> month ahead of the February 2020 market top:</p><p>   Implied volatility has also recently collapsed. The CBOE Volatility Index    ended last Friday at its lowest level since February 20, 2020, or one day after the SPX's February 19, 2020 peak.</p><p>   Thus, with significant event risks this week in the form of the FOMC Meeting results on Wednesday  , and a quadruple-witching Friday  , the benchmark index appears especially ripe for much more spirited action.</p><p>   It now remains to be seen whether the SPX will soon begin a well-rested sprint, or if it will be shaken from its slumber by something that goes bump in the night.</p><p>   (Terence Gabriel)</p><p>   ***** </p><p>   FOR TUESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:  </p><p>    &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ SPX06152021     Retail sales     Inflation     Empire State    </p><p>   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><p>(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","MS":"摩根士丹利",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143752015","content_text":"* Major U.S. stock indexes modestly red; small caps underperform   * Materials weakest major S&P sector; energy leads gainers   * Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%   * Dollar ~flat; gold off, crude up; bitcoin down slightly   * U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.50%    June 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com   NEW YORK APARTMENT RENTS POP AS BANKS DIS REMOTE WORK (1045 EDT/1445 GMT   Perhaps bankers in the Big Apple didn't get the memo on remote work, or are hearing a different tune than big tech on the West Coast.   While all gateway markets are showing signs of recovery in apartment rentals, some are recovering faster than others, with a notable difference between New York and Seattle and San Francisco, according to Yardi Matrix.   Apartment rents increased 3.4% on a month-over-month basis in New York in May, well above the other top 30 U.S. metro areas that Yardi tracks in its National Multifamily Report.   Seattle and San Francisco rebounded, but only at 0.2% and 0.3% growth month over month, respectively, said Yardi, which researches U.S. commercial real estate.   The difference could be due to the type of industries in the three cities and their return-to-work plans, Yardi said.   New York banks are requiring employees to return to the office this summer, while tech workers in Seattle and San Francisco are more likely to be able to work on a hybrid or fully remote schedule, Yardi said.   James Gorman, chief executive at Morgan Stanley   , said Monday that if most employees are not back at the bank's Manhattan headquarters in September, he will be \"very disappointed.\"   Facebook Inc    said last week it was opening up remote work as an option to all levels of employees across the company, starting on Tuesday, and expects to reopen all its U.S. offices by October.     Alphabet Inc's Google    and Microsoft Corp   , have given employees options to choose their work location and remote work preferences.    Multifamily rents rose 2.5% year-over-year in May to almost exactly where rent growth was in March 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic hit, Yardi said.   Rents grew $12 in May to $1,428, the largest one-month increase in Yardi's data set history, it said.    (Herbert Lash)       *****   DATA ROUND ONE: RETAIL SALES, PPI, EMPIRE STATE (1000 EDT/1400 GMT)   An onslaught of reports unleashed on Tuesday suggests an economy entering a new phase of recovery from the pandemic recession, with freshly-jabbed consumers leaving their houses to find inflation running hotter than the weather.        Sales at U.S. retailers    fell 1.3% last month according to the Commerce Department, steeper than the anticipated 0.8% drop, reversing April's upwardly-revised 0.9% gain.     In part, the decline reflects consumer demand pivoting back from goods to customer-facing services as more Americans are inoculated and taking advantage of lifting social distancing restrictions.    Receipts at bars/restaurants and department stores, for example, jumped by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, and gasoline sales rose by 0.7%.   On the other hand, sales of home improvement goods plunged by 5.9% and home electronics slid 3.4%.   The overall pullback suggests a \"satiated demand for goods\" as \"higher prices weighed on consumers’ buying attitudes,\" writes Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.     \"While some will interpret this as a sign of wary households,\" Daco adds, the report signals \"ongoing demand rotation as vaccinated consumers splurge on services.   Core retail sales, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services - and corresponds closely with the personal consumption component of GDP - dropped by 0.7%.   A report from the Labor Department showed the producer price index (PPI)    - or the prices U.S. goods makers get for their wares at the factory loading dock - rose at a faster pace in May than analysts expected.   Monthly headline PPI rose by 0.8%, running hotter than the 0.6% growth projected by economists.   On an annual basis, core PPI - which strips out food, energy and trade services - accelerated to 5.3% from April's 4.6% pace.   \"Headline, core and core ex-trade services prices are well above the 2% target,\" notes Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. \"However, the Fed is expected to continue to view building pressures as transient.\"   The graphic below shows how year-over-year core PPI stacks up among other major indicators relative to the Fed's average annual 2% target:   The demand U-turn away from goods back to services appears to be showing itself in data from the New York Fed, which showed manufacturing activity in New York State stepped on the brakes in May.   The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State index  plunged nearly seven points to a reading of 17.4, well below the 23 consensus.   An Empire State number above zero signifies increased activity over the previous month.   \"Manufacturing is doing well, but activity is no longer accelerating,\" says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.    But Shepherdson outpoints unfilled orders and prices paid components \"suggests a marginal easing of supply constraints,\" a welcome development amid the ongoing demand/supply imbalance.   But Tuesday isn't done with us. Industrial production, inventories and homebuilder sentiment remain on tap.    Investors were taking a breather out of the starting gate, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slipping back from Monday's record closing highs.       (Stephen Culp)   *****   S&P 500: SLEEPWALKING (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)   The S&P 500    posted another record close on Monday. While only about halfway into June, that marked its 29th record-high finish so far this year vs 33 for all of 2020.   Despite the levitation, SPX action in many ways has grown zombie-like. Monday's range as a percentage of the prior session's close was just 0.51%. With this, nearly half of the 18 smallest daily ranges so far this year, have occurred in the past 13 trading days. For the week, the SPX is on track for its tightest range since September 22, 2017.   Meanwhile, volatility close-to-close, on a weekly basis, has contracted to its lowest level since mid-January 2020, or roughly one month ahead of the February 2020 market top:   Implied volatility has also recently collapsed. The CBOE Volatility Index    ended last Friday at its lowest level since February 20, 2020, or one day after the SPX's February 19, 2020 peak.   Thus, with significant event risks this week in the form of the FOMC Meeting results on Wednesday  , and a quadruple-witching Friday  , the benchmark index appears especially ripe for much more spirited action.   It now remains to be seen whether the SPX will soon begin a well-rested sprint, or if it will be shaken from its slumber by something that goes bump in the night.   (Terence Gabriel)   *****    FOR TUESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:      <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ SPX06152021     Retail sales     Inflation     Empire State       ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184192614,"gmtCreate":1623687447338,"gmtModify":1704208812522,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184192614","repostId":"2143738880","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143738880","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623683884,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143738880?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-Microsoft Submits Comments To SEC On Climate Change Disclosure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143738880","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 14 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp   :   * MICROSOFT SUBMITS COMMENTS TO SEC ON CLIMATE CHANGE DISCL","content":"<html><body><p>June 14 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp   :</p><p>   * MICROSOFT SUBMITS COMMENTS TO SEC ON CLIMATE CHANGE DISCLOSURE</p><p>   * MICROSOFT PRESIDENT SAYS \"BELIEVE IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THE SEC TO HAVE A COMMON AND WELL-DEFINED FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED METRICS AND METHODOLOGIES\"</p><p>Source text: () Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Microsoft Submits Comments To SEC On Climate Change Disclosure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Microsoft Submits Comments To SEC On Climate Change Disclosure\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-14 23:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>June 14 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp   :</p><p>   * MICROSOFT SUBMITS COMMENTS TO SEC ON CLIMATE CHANGE DISCLOSURE</p><p>   * MICROSOFT PRESIDENT SAYS \"BELIEVE IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THE SEC TO HAVE A COMMON AND WELL-DEFINED FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED METRICS AND METHODOLOGIES\"</p><p>Source text: () Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","MSFT":"微软","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143738880","content_text":"June 14 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp   :   * MICROSOFT SUBMITS COMMENTS TO SEC ON CLIMATE CHANGE DISCLOSURE   * MICROSOFT PRESIDENT SAYS \"BELIEVE IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THE SEC TO HAVE A COMMON AND WELL-DEFINED FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED METRICS AND METHODOLOGIES\"Source text: () Further company coverage:    ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184192069,"gmtCreate":1623687435051,"gmtModify":1704208812034,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184192069","repostId":"2143738600","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143738600","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623686955,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143738600?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 00:09","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"LIVE MARKETS-Real estate's big start looks to get even better -MS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143738600","media":"Reuters","summary":"* S&P 500 off ~0.2%, Dow down ~0.7%, Nasdaq rises ~0.4%   * Materials weakest major S&P sector; tech","content":"<html><body><p>* S&amp;P 500 off ~0.2%, Dow down ~0.7%, Nasdaq rises ~0.4%</p><p>   * Materials weakest major S&amp;P sector; tech leads gainers</p><p>   * Dollar ~flat; gold down, crude up; bitcoin up ~4%</p><p>   * U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.49%</p><p>    June 14 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com </p><p>   REAL ESTATE'S BIG START LOOKS TO GET EVEN BETTER -MS (1208 EDT/1608 GMT)</p><p>   Real estate investment trusts are easily off to their best year ever, up about 26% so far in 2021, a sign there's more upside to come as strong starts to REITs historically beget even stronger full-year performance, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$(MS)$</a> said on Monday.</p><p>   Past years with a good jump through mid-June that ended even better, ranked according to gains, were 2019, with an 18.7% start that ended up 25.8%; 2014 with 15.9% ending at 30.4%; 2010 with 12.9% ending at 28.5% and 2003, with 16.1% ending at 36.7%.</p><p>   Morgan Stanley said it's important not to forget that last year was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the worst ever for REITs, and that while absolute valuations look rich, the real estate sector    still screens as attractive to the broader market.</p><p>   REITs rose for the fourth week in a row last week with a total return of more than 3%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500    by 259 basis points for the fifth week in a row and the 14th time this year, Morgan Stanley said.</p><p>   Real estate was the best of the 11 sub-sectors week over week, up 2% versus a 0.4% gain for the S&amp;P 500 and is now the third-best performing subsector year-to-date, behind a 47.8% gain in energy   , and 28.0% rise in financials   .</p><p>   The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index increased 4.4% in May, with prices for every property type in the index rising. The index is now only 1% below pre-COVID levels. </p><p>   (Herbert Lash) </p><p>   *****</p><p>   STOXX 600: WHAT LURKS BENEATH RECORD HIGHS (1146 EDT/1546 GMT)</p><p>   Looking at the main European benchmarks at the close, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> would be tempted to paint a very positive picture of Europe Inc on this fine day of June 14 2021. </p><p>   The STOXX 600 and Frankfurt's DAX reached another record high, Paris CAC 40 is partying like it's 2000. </p><p>   In London, the FTSE 100 is getting very close to reclaiming its pre-pandemic highs but there's a lot of grim price action taking place nonetheless due to COVID-19 again. </p><p>   The Travel and leisure in the UK and by extension in Europe didn't have a pleasant session. </p><p>   Britain's Boris Johnson is now widely expected to delay by a few weeks the planned easing of COVID-19 restrictions due to the exponential rise of Delta variant infections.</p><p>   And while the big macro picture isn't expected to change much, some sectors will be severely hit.</p><p>   \"It's just four weeks, but for some businesses it will be four weeks too many especially as there are no guarantees 19 July will really bring an end to restrictions\", wrote Danni Hewson, an analyst at AJ Bell.  </p><p>   \"There are many reasons to delay, but delay will bring hardship for some, ruined plans for others and the end of the line for a few\".</p><p>   On the FTSE 250 mid cap index, Restaurant Group, which owns Wagamama restaurants, fell close to 5% while pub operator Wetherspoon fell over 3%. </p><p>   Take a look here at the European Travel and Leisure sector. As you see UK airlines and entertaining groups are the hardest hit: </p><p>   While the delay in reopening could be seen as a simple setback, there are growing fears that continental Europe could face a similar wave of Delta variant infections at the autumn, with another potential hit to the sector.</p><p>   (Julien Ponthus) </p><p>   *****</p><p>   THE SPREE IS ON: CONSUMERS ARE JABBED, FLUSH AND READY TO MINGLE (1102 EDT/1502 GMT)</p><p>   Having spent over a year walking through the valley of the shadow of COVID, the U.S. economy is fast approaching its pre-pandemic 'normal.' </p><p>   In fact, it's precisely 94.6% of normal, according to Oxford Economics' most recent Recovery Tracker, in which the demand component jumped above levels seen on January 2020, when the coronavirus was still a distant threat. </p><p>   \"With two-thirds of adults having received one vaccine dose, restaurant bookings neared pre-pandemic levels, the number of flights rose firmly, and credit card spending heated up,\" writes Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. </p><p>   For a Reuters interactive graphic on worldwide vaccine progress and availability, click here </p><p>   By all appearances, that \"pent-up\" demand analysts have been promising is well afoot as consumers economically re-engage, their wallets fattened with stimulus and savings.</p><p>   Just how fat are those wallets? </p><p>   Many economists view the saving rate - the difference between disposable income and personal outlays - as a barometer of consumer expectations. While the saving rate has come down since its April 2020 peak of 33.7%, at 14.9% it remains elevated. And UMich's consumer expectations index is on an upward trend.</p><p>   At the same time, consumers have been paying down their credit cards. Total outstanding revolving credit is down 12.2% to dollar amount not seen in over four years.</p><p>   The rise in restaurant bookings to which Daco refers is evident in the 0.6% growth in the \"food away from home\" segment of May's CPI report, which increased at double the rate of \"food at home,\" and suggests that demand for a table for two is steadily growing.</p><p>   Retail sales data shows that in April, retail receipts at dining and drinking establishments were just 2.2% below pre-pandemic levels, and if the trend has continued through May and into June, that gap has since been closed.</p><p>   The Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) provides perhaps the clearest picture of economic re-engagement. Its data is fresh (the most recent data point is yesterday), and it shows the number of passengers to remove their shoes and empty their pockets at airport security is back to where it was before COVID grounded the commercial airline industry.</p><p>   Airline stocks   , however, still have some altitude to recover.</p><p>   (Stephen Culp)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   MAJOR U.S. INDEXES MIXED; FOCUS TURNS TO FED (1013 EDT/1413 GMT)</p><p>   Major U.S. indexes are mixed with just modest changes in early trade Monday. This as the focus turns to this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is expected to maintain its accommodative stance on monetary policy.    This week also brings a quadruple-witching on Friday, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously.</p><p>   Ahead of these events, volatility measures have either been contracting, or remain moribund. In fact, the CBOE Volatility index    ended Friday at its lowest level since February 20, 2020, which was one day after the S&amp;P 500's February 19, 2020 top, and ahead of the market's swoon into its March 2020 lows.  </p><p>   With Monday's mixed action so far, the VIX is rising slightly and most major S&amp;P 500 sectors are red. That said, growth    is outperforming value   . The IGX/IVX ratio is now hitting a more than 1-month high.</p><p>   Here is where markets stand in early trade:</p><p>   (Terence Gabriel)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   TAPERING PLAYBOOK (0934 EDT/1334 GMT) </p><p>   With less than 24 hours left before the Fed kicks off its June policy meeting, markets look to be fairly relaxed about the impact of any move by the U.S. central bank to start normalizing policy.</p><p>   Reflecting the easy mood is JPMorgan who says the upcoming start to the tapering process \"is unlikely to hurt our bullish view on DM equities for 2H\".</p><p>   Part of this optimism is derived after looking at market moves during the latest bond tapering episode back in 2013.</p><p>   Here's a summary of what happened then, courtesy of Mislav Matejka, strategist at the U.S. investment bank:</p><p>   1. Developed Market equities weathered the process very well, post the small initial wobble. In contrast, EM equities fared relatively poorly</p><p>   2. Bond yields were subdued ahead of the tapering announcement, and moved significantly higher in its aftermath, but, interestingly, peaked out once the actual tapering was implemented</p><p>   3. Ahead of the tapering announcement, internals had a marginal tilt towards Cyclicals vs Defensives. From the tapering announcement to actual implementation, Cyclicals performed very strongly vs Defensives. Post the start of tapering, over the ensuing 6-12 months, the leadership turned decisively more defensive.    </p><p>    (Danilo Masoni)</p><p>   ****    </p><p>   BREXIT: THE SAUSAGE AND THE POUND (0923 EDT/1323 GMT) </p><p>   Among the key takeaways of the G7 summit in Cornwall over the weekend, one had little to do with COVID-19, the fight against climate change or the tensions brewing with Russia and China.</p><p>   \"The meeting reminded us that Brexit never goes away\", writes Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS GWM, who's been  referring to the UK's exit from the European Union as a \"interminably tedious\" issue for some years now. </p><p>   The current \"sausage war\" about checks on chilled meats moving from the island of Great Britain to Northern Ireland is another example of how Brexit is so full of surprises and provides endless news cycles. </p><p>   \"Everything has an end but Brexit\" was the headline of the daily currency briefing of the FX team at Commerzbank which looked at how the sausage war could impact the pound. </p><p>   \"If the EU was to become more concrete on its threats in the next few days Sterling would record further losses\", they argued. </p><p>   Another harsh headline came from George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, who issued a note on the \"The forever-war that is Brexit\". </p><p>   Lagarias, just as the Commerzbank analysts, also focused on how the risk of a trade war could weigh on the pound. </p><p>   \"We wouldn’t be too surprised if investors question whether the pound, which is still near post-Brexit highs, is fairly valued, especially as other countries have caught up on vaccinations\". </p><p>   There is a sense across pundits that finding an acceptable modus operandi for Northern Ireland is unlikely at the moment and that EU-UK tensions is just part of the new Brexit normal.</p><p>   \"Johnson is stuck in his ultimately unresolvable, yet consciously self-inflicted, dilemma of wanting to have his cake and eat it too vis-à-vis the EU\", wrote  Erik F. Nielsen, Group Chief Economist at UniCredit. </p><p>   In the meantime, it's fair to say that even with the prospect of a further delay to the reopening of the British economy, investors are not frantically selling sterling to buy continental sausages.</p><p>   Cable is up 0.02% at the moment and the euro is up a mere 0.08% against the pound which has been doing quite all right lately thank you very much: </p><p>   Here's some reading on the issue: </p><p>   EU and UK's 'sausage war' sizzles at G7 as Macron and Johnson spar   </p><p>   Ex-EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: UK reputation at stake in Brexit row  </p><p>   Brexit tensions are a test for Europe, says French minister  </p><p>   (Julien Ponthus) </p><p>   *****</p><p>   NASDAQ COMPOSITE: RENEWED VIGOR (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)</p><p>   The Nasdaq Composite    ended Friday within 0.5% of its April 26 record close and 1% from its April 29 record intraday high.  </p><p>   Meanwhile, one measure of the Nasdaq's internal strength has already been hitting fresh record highs:</p><p>   Nasdaq's cumulative net new highs (NNH)    (running sum of new highs - new lows), on a weekly basis, bottomed in early April 2020, and has been trending up, above its 12-week moving average <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMA.AU\">$(WMA.AU)$</a>, for 55 straight weeks. The measure ended Friday at an all-time high of just over 178.5k vs its 12-WMA at 175.6k.</p><p>   Looking back over the past 6 years or so, periods when cumulative weekly NNHs were above its 12-WMA have coincided with Nasdaq strength. Conversely, periods when cumulative NNHs were below the 12-WMA have occurred amid Nasdaq instability.</p><p>   More recently, since its February 12 peak, which also coincided with the Composite's weekly closing high, the spread between the measure and its 12-WMA had been sharply deteriorating, underscoring waning upside momentum.</p><p>   However, in the wake of a near 5%-IXIC sell off from February 12 to May 21, the spread bottomed ahead of its zero line, and has now widened for 3 straight weeks.  </p><p>   As long as this new widening trend remains in force, the Composite's renewed vigor may have legs.   </p><p>    (Terence Gabriel)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   FOR MONDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:  </p><p>    &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ IXIC06142021     sausage     Stocks in 2013     Earlytrade06142021     Consumer expectations, saving rate, outstanding credit     Dining out and eating in     Airlines and TSA throughput     leisure    </p><p>   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><p>(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>LIVE MARKETS-Real estate's big start looks to get even better -MS</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLIVE MARKETS-Real estate's big start looks to get even better -MS\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 00:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>* S&amp;P 500 off ~0.2%, Dow down ~0.7%, Nasdaq rises ~0.4%</p><p>   * Materials weakest major S&amp;P sector; tech leads gainers</p><p>   * Dollar ~flat; gold down, crude up; bitcoin up ~4%</p><p>   * U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.49%</p><p>    June 14 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com </p><p>   REAL ESTATE'S BIG START LOOKS TO GET EVEN BETTER -MS (1208 EDT/1608 GMT)</p><p>   Real estate investment trusts are easily off to their best year ever, up about 26% so far in 2021, a sign there's more upside to come as strong starts to REITs historically beget even stronger full-year performance, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$(MS)$</a> said on Monday.</p><p>   Past years with a good jump through mid-June that ended even better, ranked according to gains, were 2019, with an 18.7% start that ended up 25.8%; 2014 with 15.9% ending at 30.4%; 2010 with 12.9% ending at 28.5% and 2003, with 16.1% ending at 36.7%.</p><p>   Morgan Stanley said it's important not to forget that last year was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the worst ever for REITs, and that while absolute valuations look rich, the real estate sector    still screens as attractive to the broader market.</p><p>   REITs rose for the fourth week in a row last week with a total return of more than 3%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500    by 259 basis points for the fifth week in a row and the 14th time this year, Morgan Stanley said.</p><p>   Real estate was the best of the 11 sub-sectors week over week, up 2% versus a 0.4% gain for the S&amp;P 500 and is now the third-best performing subsector year-to-date, behind a 47.8% gain in energy   , and 28.0% rise in financials   .</p><p>   The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index increased 4.4% in May, with prices for every property type in the index rising. The index is now only 1% below pre-COVID levels. </p><p>   (Herbert Lash) </p><p>   *****</p><p>   STOXX 600: WHAT LURKS BENEATH RECORD HIGHS (1146 EDT/1546 GMT)</p><p>   Looking at the main European benchmarks at the close, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> would be tempted to paint a very positive picture of Europe Inc on this fine day of June 14 2021. </p><p>   The STOXX 600 and Frankfurt's DAX reached another record high, Paris CAC 40 is partying like it's 2000. </p><p>   In London, the FTSE 100 is getting very close to reclaiming its pre-pandemic highs but there's a lot of grim price action taking place nonetheless due to COVID-19 again. </p><p>   The Travel and leisure in the UK and by extension in Europe didn't have a pleasant session. </p><p>   Britain's Boris Johnson is now widely expected to delay by a few weeks the planned easing of COVID-19 restrictions due to the exponential rise of Delta variant infections.</p><p>   And while the big macro picture isn't expected to change much, some sectors will be severely hit.</p><p>   \"It's just four weeks, but for some businesses it will be four weeks too many especially as there are no guarantees 19 July will really bring an end to restrictions\", wrote Danni Hewson, an analyst at AJ Bell.  </p><p>   \"There are many reasons to delay, but delay will bring hardship for some, ruined plans for others and the end of the line for a few\".</p><p>   On the FTSE 250 mid cap index, Restaurant Group, which owns Wagamama restaurants, fell close to 5% while pub operator Wetherspoon fell over 3%. </p><p>   Take a look here at the European Travel and Leisure sector. As you see UK airlines and entertaining groups are the hardest hit: </p><p>   While the delay in reopening could be seen as a simple setback, there are growing fears that continental Europe could face a similar wave of Delta variant infections at the autumn, with another potential hit to the sector.</p><p>   (Julien Ponthus) </p><p>   *****</p><p>   THE SPREE IS ON: CONSUMERS ARE JABBED, FLUSH AND READY TO MINGLE (1102 EDT/1502 GMT)</p><p>   Having spent over a year walking through the valley of the shadow of COVID, the U.S. economy is fast approaching its pre-pandemic 'normal.' </p><p>   In fact, it's precisely 94.6% of normal, according to Oxford Economics' most recent Recovery Tracker, in which the demand component jumped above levels seen on January 2020, when the coronavirus was still a distant threat. </p><p>   \"With two-thirds of adults having received one vaccine dose, restaurant bookings neared pre-pandemic levels, the number of flights rose firmly, and credit card spending heated up,\" writes Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. </p><p>   For a Reuters interactive graphic on worldwide vaccine progress and availability, click here </p><p>   By all appearances, that \"pent-up\" demand analysts have been promising is well afoot as consumers economically re-engage, their wallets fattened with stimulus and savings.</p><p>   Just how fat are those wallets? </p><p>   Many economists view the saving rate - the difference between disposable income and personal outlays - as a barometer of consumer expectations. While the saving rate has come down since its April 2020 peak of 33.7%, at 14.9% it remains elevated. And UMich's consumer expectations index is on an upward trend.</p><p>   At the same time, consumers have been paying down their credit cards. Total outstanding revolving credit is down 12.2% to dollar amount not seen in over four years.</p><p>   The rise in restaurant bookings to which Daco refers is evident in the 0.6% growth in the \"food away from home\" segment of May's CPI report, which increased at double the rate of \"food at home,\" and suggests that demand for a table for two is steadily growing.</p><p>   Retail sales data shows that in April, retail receipts at dining and drinking establishments were just 2.2% below pre-pandemic levels, and if the trend has continued through May and into June, that gap has since been closed.</p><p>   The Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) provides perhaps the clearest picture of economic re-engagement. Its data is fresh (the most recent data point is yesterday), and it shows the number of passengers to remove their shoes and empty their pockets at airport security is back to where it was before COVID grounded the commercial airline industry.</p><p>   Airline stocks   , however, still have some altitude to recover.</p><p>   (Stephen Culp)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   MAJOR U.S. INDEXES MIXED; FOCUS TURNS TO FED (1013 EDT/1413 GMT)</p><p>   Major U.S. indexes are mixed with just modest changes in early trade Monday. This as the focus turns to this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is expected to maintain its accommodative stance on monetary policy.    This week also brings a quadruple-witching on Friday, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously.</p><p>   Ahead of these events, volatility measures have either been contracting, or remain moribund. In fact, the CBOE Volatility index    ended Friday at its lowest level since February 20, 2020, which was one day after the S&amp;P 500's February 19, 2020 top, and ahead of the market's swoon into its March 2020 lows.  </p><p>   With Monday's mixed action so far, the VIX is rising slightly and most major S&amp;P 500 sectors are red. That said, growth    is outperforming value   . The IGX/IVX ratio is now hitting a more than 1-month high.</p><p>   Here is where markets stand in early trade:</p><p>   (Terence Gabriel)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   TAPERING PLAYBOOK (0934 EDT/1334 GMT) </p><p>   With less than 24 hours left before the Fed kicks off its June policy meeting, markets look to be fairly relaxed about the impact of any move by the U.S. central bank to start normalizing policy.</p><p>   Reflecting the easy mood is JPMorgan who says the upcoming start to the tapering process \"is unlikely to hurt our bullish view on DM equities for 2H\".</p><p>   Part of this optimism is derived after looking at market moves during the latest bond tapering episode back in 2013.</p><p>   Here's a summary of what happened then, courtesy of Mislav Matejka, strategist at the U.S. investment bank:</p><p>   1. Developed Market equities weathered the process very well, post the small initial wobble. In contrast, EM equities fared relatively poorly</p><p>   2. Bond yields were subdued ahead of the tapering announcement, and moved significantly higher in its aftermath, but, interestingly, peaked out once the actual tapering was implemented</p><p>   3. Ahead of the tapering announcement, internals had a marginal tilt towards Cyclicals vs Defensives. From the tapering announcement to actual implementation, Cyclicals performed very strongly vs Defensives. Post the start of tapering, over the ensuing 6-12 months, the leadership turned decisively more defensive.    </p><p>    (Danilo Masoni)</p><p>   ****    </p><p>   BREXIT: THE SAUSAGE AND THE POUND (0923 EDT/1323 GMT) </p><p>   Among the key takeaways of the G7 summit in Cornwall over the weekend, one had little to do with COVID-19, the fight against climate change or the tensions brewing with Russia and China.</p><p>   \"The meeting reminded us that Brexit never goes away\", writes Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS GWM, who's been  referring to the UK's exit from the European Union as a \"interminably tedious\" issue for some years now. </p><p>   The current \"sausage war\" about checks on chilled meats moving from the island of Great Britain to Northern Ireland is another example of how Brexit is so full of surprises and provides endless news cycles. </p><p>   \"Everything has an end but Brexit\" was the headline of the daily currency briefing of the FX team at Commerzbank which looked at how the sausage war could impact the pound. </p><p>   \"If the EU was to become more concrete on its threats in the next few days Sterling would record further losses\", they argued. </p><p>   Another harsh headline came from George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, who issued a note on the \"The forever-war that is Brexit\". </p><p>   Lagarias, just as the Commerzbank analysts, also focused on how the risk of a trade war could weigh on the pound. </p><p>   \"We wouldn’t be too surprised if investors question whether the pound, which is still near post-Brexit highs, is fairly valued, especially as other countries have caught up on vaccinations\". </p><p>   There is a sense across pundits that finding an acceptable modus operandi for Northern Ireland is unlikely at the moment and that EU-UK tensions is just part of the new Brexit normal.</p><p>   \"Johnson is stuck in his ultimately unresolvable, yet consciously self-inflicted, dilemma of wanting to have his cake and eat it too vis-à-vis the EU\", wrote  Erik F. Nielsen, Group Chief Economist at UniCredit. </p><p>   In the meantime, it's fair to say that even with the prospect of a further delay to the reopening of the British economy, investors are not frantically selling sterling to buy continental sausages.</p><p>   Cable is up 0.02% at the moment and the euro is up a mere 0.08% against the pound which has been doing quite all right lately thank you very much: </p><p>   Here's some reading on the issue: </p><p>   EU and UK's 'sausage war' sizzles at G7 as Macron and Johnson spar   </p><p>   Ex-EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: UK reputation at stake in Brexit row  </p><p>   Brexit tensions are a test for Europe, says French minister  </p><p>   (Julien Ponthus) </p><p>   *****</p><p>   NASDAQ COMPOSITE: RENEWED VIGOR (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)</p><p>   The Nasdaq Composite    ended Friday within 0.5% of its April 26 record close and 1% from its April 29 record intraday high.  </p><p>   Meanwhile, one measure of the Nasdaq's internal strength has already been hitting fresh record highs:</p><p>   Nasdaq's cumulative net new highs (NNH)    (running sum of new highs - new lows), on a weekly basis, bottomed in early April 2020, and has been trending up, above its 12-week moving average <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMA.AU\">$(WMA.AU)$</a>, for 55 straight weeks. The measure ended Friday at an all-time high of just over 178.5k vs its 12-WMA at 175.6k.</p><p>   Looking back over the past 6 years or so, periods when cumulative weekly NNHs were above its 12-WMA have coincided with Nasdaq strength. Conversely, periods when cumulative NNHs were below the 12-WMA have occurred amid Nasdaq instability.</p><p>   More recently, since its February 12 peak, which also coincided with the Composite's weekly closing high, the spread between the measure and its 12-WMA had been sharply deteriorating, underscoring waning upside momentum.</p><p>   However, in the wake of a near 5%-IXIC sell off from February 12 to May 21, the spread bottomed ahead of its zero line, and has now widened for 3 straight weeks.  </p><p>   As long as this new widening trend remains in force, the Composite's renewed vigor may have legs.   </p><p>    (Terence Gabriel)</p><p>   *****</p><p>   FOR MONDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:  </p><p>    &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ IXIC06142021     sausage     Stocks in 2013     Earlytrade06142021     Consumer expectations, saving rate, outstanding credit     Dining out and eating in     Airlines and TSA throughput     leisure    </p><p>   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><p>(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","MS":"摩根士丹利","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143738600","content_text":"* S&P 500 off ~0.2%, Dow down ~0.7%, Nasdaq rises ~0.4%   * Materials weakest major S&P sector; tech leads gainers   * Dollar ~flat; gold down, crude up; bitcoin up ~4%   * U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.49%    June 14 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com    REAL ESTATE'S BIG START LOOKS TO GET EVEN BETTER -MS (1208 EDT/1608 GMT)   Real estate investment trusts are easily off to their best year ever, up about 26% so far in 2021, a sign there's more upside to come as strong starts to REITs historically beget even stronger full-year performance, Morgan Stanley $(MS)$ said on Monday.   Past years with a good jump through mid-June that ended even better, ranked according to gains, were 2019, with an 18.7% start that ended up 25.8%; 2014 with 15.9% ending at 30.4%; 2010 with 12.9% ending at 28.5% and 2003, with 16.1% ending at 36.7%.   Morgan Stanley said it's important not to forget that last year was one of the worst ever for REITs, and that while absolute valuations look rich, the real estate sector    still screens as attractive to the broader market.   REITs rose for the fourth week in a row last week with a total return of more than 3%, outperforming the S&P 500    by 259 basis points for the fifth week in a row and the 14th time this year, Morgan Stanley said.   Real estate was the best of the 11 sub-sectors week over week, up 2% versus a 0.4% gain for the S&P 500 and is now the third-best performing subsector year-to-date, behind a 47.8% gain in energy   , and 28.0% rise in financials   .   The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index increased 4.4% in May, with prices for every property type in the index rising. The index is now only 1% below pre-COVID levels.    (Herbert Lash)    *****   STOXX 600: WHAT LURKS BENEATH RECORD HIGHS (1146 EDT/1546 GMT)   Looking at the main European benchmarks at the close, one would be tempted to paint a very positive picture of Europe Inc on this fine day of June 14 2021.    The STOXX 600 and Frankfurt's DAX reached another record high, Paris CAC 40 is partying like it's 2000.    In London, the FTSE 100 is getting very close to reclaiming its pre-pandemic highs but there's a lot of grim price action taking place nonetheless due to COVID-19 again.    The Travel and leisure in the UK and by extension in Europe didn't have a pleasant session.    Britain's Boris Johnson is now widely expected to delay by a few weeks the planned easing of COVID-19 restrictions due to the exponential rise of Delta variant infections.   And while the big macro picture isn't expected to change much, some sectors will be severely hit.   \"It's just four weeks, but for some businesses it will be four weeks too many especially as there are no guarantees 19 July will really bring an end to restrictions\", wrote Danni Hewson, an analyst at AJ Bell.     \"There are many reasons to delay, but delay will bring hardship for some, ruined plans for others and the end of the line for a few\".   On the FTSE 250 mid cap index, Restaurant Group, which owns Wagamama restaurants, fell close to 5% while pub operator Wetherspoon fell over 3%.    Take a look here at the European Travel and Leisure sector. As you see UK airlines and entertaining groups are the hardest hit:    While the delay in reopening could be seen as a simple setback, there are growing fears that continental Europe could face a similar wave of Delta variant infections at the autumn, with another potential hit to the sector.   (Julien Ponthus)    *****   THE SPREE IS ON: CONSUMERS ARE JABBED, FLUSH AND READY TO MINGLE (1102 EDT/1502 GMT)   Having spent over a year walking through the valley of the shadow of COVID, the U.S. economy is fast approaching its pre-pandemic 'normal.'    In fact, it's precisely 94.6% of normal, according to Oxford Economics' most recent Recovery Tracker, in which the demand component jumped above levels seen on January 2020, when the coronavirus was still a distant threat.    \"With two-thirds of adults having received one vaccine dose, restaurant bookings neared pre-pandemic levels, the number of flights rose firmly, and credit card spending heated up,\" writes Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.    For a Reuters interactive graphic on worldwide vaccine progress and availability, click here    By all appearances, that \"pent-up\" demand analysts have been promising is well afoot as consumers economically re-engage, their wallets fattened with stimulus and savings.   Just how fat are those wallets?    Many economists view the saving rate - the difference between disposable income and personal outlays - as a barometer of consumer expectations. While the saving rate has come down since its April 2020 peak of 33.7%, at 14.9% it remains elevated. And UMich's consumer expectations index is on an upward trend.   At the same time, consumers have been paying down their credit cards. Total outstanding revolving credit is down 12.2% to dollar amount not seen in over four years.   The rise in restaurant bookings to which Daco refers is evident in the 0.6% growth in the \"food away from home\" segment of May's CPI report, which increased at double the rate of \"food at home,\" and suggests that demand for a table for two is steadily growing.   Retail sales data shows that in April, retail receipts at dining and drinking establishments were just 2.2% below pre-pandemic levels, and if the trend has continued through May and into June, that gap has since been closed.   The Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) provides perhaps the clearest picture of economic re-engagement. Its data is fresh (the most recent data point is yesterday), and it shows the number of passengers to remove their shoes and empty their pockets at airport security is back to where it was before COVID grounded the commercial airline industry.   Airline stocks   , however, still have some altitude to recover.   (Stephen Culp)   *****   MAJOR U.S. INDEXES MIXED; FOCUS TURNS TO FED (1013 EDT/1413 GMT)   Major U.S. indexes are mixed with just modest changes in early trade Monday. This as the focus turns to this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is expected to maintain its accommodative stance on monetary policy.    This week also brings a quadruple-witching on Friday, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously.   Ahead of these events, volatility measures have either been contracting, or remain moribund. In fact, the CBOE Volatility index    ended Friday at its lowest level since February 20, 2020, which was one day after the S&P 500's February 19, 2020 top, and ahead of the market's swoon into its March 2020 lows.     With Monday's mixed action so far, the VIX is rising slightly and most major S&P 500 sectors are red. That said, growth    is outperforming value   . The IGX/IVX ratio is now hitting a more than 1-month high.   Here is where markets stand in early trade:   (Terence Gabriel)   *****   TAPERING PLAYBOOK (0934 EDT/1334 GMT)    With less than 24 hours left before the Fed kicks off its June policy meeting, markets look to be fairly relaxed about the impact of any move by the U.S. central bank to start normalizing policy.   Reflecting the easy mood is JPMorgan who says the upcoming start to the tapering process \"is unlikely to hurt our bullish view on DM equities for 2H\".   Part of this optimism is derived after looking at market moves during the latest bond tapering episode back in 2013.   Here's a summary of what happened then, courtesy of Mislav Matejka, strategist at the U.S. investment bank:   1. Developed Market equities weathered the process very well, post the small initial wobble. In contrast, EM equities fared relatively poorly   2. Bond yields were subdued ahead of the tapering announcement, and moved significantly higher in its aftermath, but, interestingly, peaked out once the actual tapering was implemented   3. Ahead of the tapering announcement, internals had a marginal tilt towards Cyclicals vs Defensives. From the tapering announcement to actual implementation, Cyclicals performed very strongly vs Defensives. Post the start of tapering, over the ensuing 6-12 months, the leadership turned decisively more defensive.        (Danilo Masoni)   ****       BREXIT: THE SAUSAGE AND THE POUND (0923 EDT/1323 GMT)    Among the key takeaways of the G7 summit in Cornwall over the weekend, one had little to do with COVID-19, the fight against climate change or the tensions brewing with Russia and China.   \"The meeting reminded us that Brexit never goes away\", writes Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS GWM, who's been  referring to the UK's exit from the European Union as a \"interminably tedious\" issue for some years now.    The current \"sausage war\" about checks on chilled meats moving from the island of Great Britain to Northern Ireland is another example of how Brexit is so full of surprises and provides endless news cycles.    \"Everything has an end but Brexit\" was the headline of the daily currency briefing of the FX team at Commerzbank which looked at how the sausage war could impact the pound.    \"If the EU was to become more concrete on its threats in the next few days Sterling would record further losses\", they argued.    Another harsh headline came from George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, who issued a note on the \"The forever-war that is Brexit\".    Lagarias, just as the Commerzbank analysts, also focused on how the risk of a trade war could weigh on the pound.    \"We wouldn’t be too surprised if investors question whether the pound, which is still near post-Brexit highs, is fairly valued, especially as other countries have caught up on vaccinations\".    There is a sense across pundits that finding an acceptable modus operandi for Northern Ireland is unlikely at the moment and that EU-UK tensions is just part of the new Brexit normal.   \"Johnson is stuck in his ultimately unresolvable, yet consciously self-inflicted, dilemma of wanting to have his cake and eat it too vis-à-vis the EU\", wrote  Erik F. Nielsen, Group Chief Economist at UniCredit.    In the meantime, it's fair to say that even with the prospect of a further delay to the reopening of the British economy, investors are not frantically selling sterling to buy continental sausages.   Cable is up 0.02% at the moment and the euro is up a mere 0.08% against the pound which has been doing quite all right lately thank you very much:    Here's some reading on the issue:    EU and UK's 'sausage war' sizzles at G7 as Macron and Johnson spar      Ex-EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: UK reputation at stake in Brexit row     Brexit tensions are a test for Europe, says French minister     (Julien Ponthus)    *****   NASDAQ COMPOSITE: RENEWED VIGOR (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)   The Nasdaq Composite    ended Friday within 0.5% of its April 26 record close and 1% from its April 29 record intraday high.     Meanwhile, one measure of the Nasdaq's internal strength has already been hitting fresh record highs:   Nasdaq's cumulative net new highs (NNH)    (running sum of new highs - new lows), on a weekly basis, bottomed in early April 2020, and has been trending up, above its 12-week moving average $(WMA.AU)$, for 55 straight weeks. The measure ended Friday at an all-time high of just over 178.5k vs its 12-WMA at 175.6k.   Looking back over the past 6 years or so, periods when cumulative weekly NNHs were above its 12-WMA have coincided with Nasdaq strength. Conversely, periods when cumulative NNHs were below the 12-WMA have occurred amid Nasdaq instability.   More recently, since its February 12 peak, which also coincided with the Composite's weekly closing high, the spread between the measure and its 12-WMA had been sharply deteriorating, underscoring waning upside momentum.   However, in the wake of a near 5%-IXIC sell off from February 12 to May 21, the spread bottomed ahead of its zero line, and has now widened for 3 straight weeks.     As long as this new widening trend remains in force, the Composite's renewed vigor may have legs.       (Terence Gabriel)   *****   FOR MONDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:      <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ IXIC06142021     sausage     Stocks in 2013     Earlytrade06142021     Consumer expectations, saving rate, outstanding credit     Dining out and eating in     Airlines and TSA throughput     leisure       ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185626028,"gmtCreate":1623647036264,"gmtModify":1704207777665,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185626028","repostId":"2143783813","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143783813","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623537805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143783813?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 374,397,205 Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine As Of June 12 Versus 373,413,945 Doses Delivered As Of June 11","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143783813","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 12 (Reuters) -    * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 374,397,205 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12","content":"<html><body><p>June 12 (Reuters) - </p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 374,397,205 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 373,413,945 DOSES DELIVERED AS OF JUNE 11</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS ADMINISTERED 308,112,728 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 306,509,795 DOSES ADMINISTERED AS OF JUNE 11</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS 173,391,711 INDIVIDUALS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 172,758,350 INDIVIDUALS AS OF JUNE 11</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS 143,119,077 INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST COVID-19 AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 142,095,530 INDIVIDUALS AS OF JUNE 11</p><p> Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 374,397,205 Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine As Of June 12 Versus 373,413,945 Doses Delivered As Of June 11</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-U.S. CDC Says Delivered 374,397,205 Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine As Of June 12 Versus 373,413,945 Doses Delivered As Of June 11\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-13 06:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>June 12 (Reuters) - </p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 374,397,205 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 373,413,945 DOSES DELIVERED AS OF JUNE 11</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS ADMINISTERED 308,112,728 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 306,509,795 DOSES ADMINISTERED AS OF JUNE 11</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS 173,391,711 INDIVIDUALS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 172,758,350 INDIVIDUALS AS OF JUNE 11</p><p>   * U.S. CDC SAYS 143,119,077 INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST COVID-19 AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 142,095,530 INDIVIDUALS AS OF JUNE 11</p><p> Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JNJ":"强生","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143783813","content_text":"June 12 (Reuters) -    * U.S. CDC SAYS DELIVERED 374,397,205 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 373,413,945 DOSES DELIVERED AS OF JUNE 11   * U.S. CDC SAYS ADMINISTERED 308,112,728 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 306,509,795 DOSES ADMINISTERED AS OF JUNE 11   * U.S. CDC SAYS 173,391,711 INDIVIDUALS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF COVID-19 VACCINE AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 172,758,350 INDIVIDUALS AS OF JUNE 11   * U.S. CDC SAYS 143,119,077 INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST COVID-19 AS OF JUNE 12 VERSUS 142,095,530 INDIVIDUALS AS OF JUNE 11 Further company coverage:    ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185628011,"gmtCreate":1623646992933,"gmtModify":1704207775705,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185628011","repostId":"2143786565","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185629577,"gmtCreate":1623646887899,"gmtModify":1704207772900,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185629577","repostId":"1146011836","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185661866,"gmtCreate":1623646572355,"gmtModify":1704207761662,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185661866","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127823989","pubTimestamp":1623253090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127823989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127823989","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.Amazonis one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM throug","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon maintains high advertising potential.</li>\n <li>The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.</li>\n <li>The company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.</p>\n<p>Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.</p>\n<p>The retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.</p>\n<p>We still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.</p>\n<p><b>Product</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.</p>\n<p>In its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.</p>\n<p>This first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d99378da746d0c3e0141d21e45729e0d\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.</p>\n<p>According toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Prime</b></p>\n<p>We all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.</p>\n<p>A chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.</p>\n<p>Amazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ee6071f10355c56905089335e248a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Starting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.</p>\n<p>2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.</p>\n<p>In 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.</p>\n<p>In 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.</p>\n<p>In 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.</p>\n<p>In 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.</p>\n<p>In 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.</p>\n<p>In 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.</p>\n<p>Finally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.</p>\n<p>The evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.</p>\n<p>Prime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98abbd226ea68e7b6dd19537677a9888\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Emarketer, Statista</p>\n<p>Given the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.</p>\n<p>Below is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/250693f17a1239d59514520d8656fecb\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Prices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).</p>\n<p>The first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.</p>\n<p>Penetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.</p>\n<p>The Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.</p>\n<p>The maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5636145e9a1d04a4f1d4f1643c0550a1\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.</p>\n<p>There are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.</p>\n<p>Currently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.</p>\n<p>Market penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa586d6b9e788420999aa48c50811040\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.</p>\n<p><b>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA)</b></p>\n<p>More than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.</p>\n<p>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.</p>\n<p>FBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1165bbedf3c99919df3b86f97386eb31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b35107ea150c8462f41cf6ff2f1975\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual report, FactSet estimates</p>\n<p>With the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d093110e0653de7cd4b486dbcf1543f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.</p>\n<p>For orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Small classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.</li>\n <li>Large sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.</li>\n <li>Large unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Small and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.</p>\n<p>A key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.</p>\n<p>Intuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.</p>\n<p>2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.</p>\n<p>This has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab81f81d8d08e98fa4819e90b6a553e1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb5e8f0ce6c11a4e1a96e2ab8002586\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Growth in line with all of the above.</p>\n<p>Amazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.</p>\n<p>In the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeec3e1927a51a580d7007e6caba3c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Chaddick Institute</p>\n<p>In Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.</p>\n<p>The current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.</p>\n<p>And all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.</p>\n<p>Following the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.</p>\n<p>Is there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a8276c53a9261ed6a84a8607ce87e9\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Between them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.</p>\n<p>Considering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.</p>\n<p>We can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.</p>\n<p><b>AWS</b></p>\n<p>We believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.</p>\n<p>There should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931481c0a035bcced96f4f401235488\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a64e7975829481aa0bedba683c33fa\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.</p>\n<p>Amazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.</p>\n<p>Backlog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.</p>\n<p>The backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e0033a5094a6f45b6cf02363014fcd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual Report &amp; Morgan Stanley Estimates</p>\n<p>This graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.</p>\n<p><b>Supermarket</b></p>\n<p>The supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.</p>\n<p>The opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.</p>\n<p>Amazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)</p>\n<p>On the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.</p>\n<p>Therefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.</p>\n<p>Having the ability to do click &amp; collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.</p>\n<p>The current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.</p>\n<p>Reviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.</p>\n<p>In a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.</p>\n<p>On the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.</p>\n<p>To get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177141503cc09a782b0fc3ec7df8cd63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.</p>\n<p>In addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f30cc5515047623531828738fa6180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Especially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Ads</b></p>\n<p>This is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1174f49304a8d987eeffaabd69393d14\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.</p>\n<p>Considering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.</p>\n<p>Advertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af8cc7425a991f2e6d6e94f71d29fbd\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.</p>\n<p>It is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18aa88ac767b673ccddb587eb8bc7d01\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Amazon Healthcare</b></p>\n<p>Although you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.</p>\n<p>Amazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.</p>\n<p>With Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Make an appointment</li>\n <li>In-person follow-up care (select states only)</li>\n <li>Medical examinations</li>\n <li>24/7 service team, 365 days a year.</li>\n <li>Recipes delivered to your home.</li>\n <li>Vaccines.</li>\n <li>Virtual consultation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Within the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.</p>\n<p>Amazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.</p>\n<p>Amazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.</p>\n<p>Concerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.</p>\n<p>The combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.</p>\n<p>It is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.</li>\n <li>In 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.</li>\n <li>Late 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.</li>\n <li>Reported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.</li>\n <li>September 2019 launches Amazon Care.</li>\n <li>B2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.</li>\n <li>March 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.</li>\n <li>Launch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Selling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:</p>\n<p>The final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.</p>\n<p>For any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).</p>\n<p>The Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.</p>\n<p>An important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.</p>\n<p>There are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Pharmacy:</b>allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:</b>part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Prime:</b>Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Understanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Retail sale of medicines</li>\n <li>B2B sales of medical devices</li>\n <li>Online medical care.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Gaming and Twitch</b></p>\n<p>Amazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>In 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.</li>\n <li>Also in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.</li>\n <li>In 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.</li>\n <li>In 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"</li>\n <li>2018 acquires GameSparks.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.</p>\n<p>The future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.</p>\n<p>In the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.</p>\n<p>Distribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.</p>\n<p>The new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.</p>\n<p><b>Music and Video</b></p>\n<p>The $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.</p>\n<p>Through the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).</p>\n<p>MGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.</p>\n<p>With 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.</p>\n<p>MGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.</p>\n<p>We do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.</p>\n<p>As for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&amp;A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.</p>\n<p>When it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?</p>\n<p>In the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.</p>\n<p><b>Venture Capital</b></p>\n<p>Amazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.</p>\n<p>The Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).</p>\n<p>It has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Covering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.</li>\n <li>Bezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.</li>\n <li>Regulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.</li>\n <li>A slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.</li>\n <li>That all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Waymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.</p>\n<p>Google with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495a0f59e25265e21fd12b548f93b3f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\">Amazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.</p>\n<p>In the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b304d1db1ca34a56deecd34a2e89a2c\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"344\"><b>Working Capital</b></p>\n<p>To understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.</p>\n<p>As margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b00f1639fd6bc917998f038f3ff60ec\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.</p>\n<p>Just by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d462cfa442b191e5e27213180f5ad9b\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"336\">If we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8546c6d09613082ad5d6e1fdef607bea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\">Under these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0e31590998b2af7f9f7209db841f59\" tg-width=\"251\" tg-height=\"410\">We would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.</p>\n<p>It is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127823989","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.\nAmazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.\nThe retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.\nOn the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.\nWe still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.\nProduct\nAmazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.\nIn its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.\nThis first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.\nThanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.\nAccording toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.\nAmazon Prime\nWe all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.\nA chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.\nAmazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.\nStarting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.\n2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.\nIn 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.\nIn 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.\nIn 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.\nIn 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.\nIn 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.\nIn 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.\nFinally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.\nThe evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.\nPrime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.\nSource: Emarketer, Statista\nGiven the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.\nBelow is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:\nPrices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).\nThe first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.\nPenetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.\nThe Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.\nThe maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:\nIn certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.\nThere are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.\nCurrently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.\nMarket penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.\nCurrently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA)\nMore than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.\nFBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.\nThe fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.\nAmazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:\nSource: Annual report, FactSet estimates\nWith the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.\nThe graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.\nFor orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:\n\nSmall classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.\nLarge sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.\nLarge unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.\n\nSmall and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.\nA key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.\nIntuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.\n2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.\nThis has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.\nThis Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:\nGrowth in line with all of the above.\nAmazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.\nIn the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.\nSource: Chaddick Institute\nIn Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.\nThe current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.\nAnd all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.\nFollowing the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.\nIs there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.\nBetween them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.\nConsidering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.\nWe can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.\nAWS\nWe believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.\nThere should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.\nAs for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.\nAmazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.\nAmazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.\nBacklog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.\nThe backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.\nSource: Annual Report & Morgan Stanley Estimates\nThis graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.\nSupermarket\nThe supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.\nThe opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.\nAmazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)\nOn the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.\nTherefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.\nHaving the ability to do click & collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.\nThe current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.\nReviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.\nIn a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.\nOn the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.\nTo get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:\nLooking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.\nIn addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.\nEspecially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.\nAmazon Ads\nThis is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:\nThis evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.\nConsidering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.\nAdvertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).\nAmazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.\nIt is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:\n\nAmazon Healthcare\nAlthough you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.\nAmazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.\nWith Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:\n\nMake an appointment\nIn-person follow-up care (select states only)\nMedical examinations\n24/7 service team, 365 days a year.\nRecipes delivered to your home.\nVaccines.\nVirtual consultation.\n\nWithin the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.\nAmazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.\nAmazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.\nConcerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.\nThe combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.\nIt is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:\n\nIn 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.\nIn 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.\nLate 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.\nReported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.\nSeptember 2019 launches Amazon Care.\nB2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.\nMarch 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.\nLaunch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.\n\nSelling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.\nAmazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:\nThe final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.\nFor any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).\nThe Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.\nAn important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.\nThere are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:\n\nAmazon Pharmacy:allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.\n\n\nPillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.\n\n\nAmazon Prime:Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.\n\nUnderstanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:\n\nRetail sale of medicines\nB2B sales of medical devices\nOnline medical care.\n\nGaming and Twitch\nAmazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:\n\nIn 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.\nAlso in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.\nIn 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.\nIn 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"\n2018 acquires GameSparks.\n\nOf all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.\nThe future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.\nIn the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.\nDistribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.\nThe new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.\nMusic and Video\nThe $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.\nThrough the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).\nMGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.\nWith 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.\nMGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.\nWe do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.\nAs for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.\nWhen it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?\nIn the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.\nVenture Capital\nAmazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.\nThe Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).\nIt has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.\nRisks\n\nCovering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.\nBezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.\nRegulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.\nA slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.\nThat all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.\n\nWaymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.\nGoogle with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:\nAmazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.\nIn the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:\nWorking Capital\nTo understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.\nProfitability\nAmazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.\nAs margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.\n\nValuation\nAmazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.\nIt currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.\nJust by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.\nIt currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.\nIf we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:\nUnder these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:\nWe would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.\nConclusion\nAmazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.\nIt is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182696952,"gmtCreate":1623566714676,"gmtModify":1704206362737,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182696952","repostId":"2142112788","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2142112788","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623510300,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142112788?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 23:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Why direct indexing is gaining traction with financial advisers and their clients","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142112788","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Customized portfolio offers tax and diversification benefits.\n\nAs more investors -- especially young","content":"<blockquote>\n Customized portfolio offers tax and diversification benefits.\n</blockquote>\n<p>As more investors -- especially younger, high-income professionals -- want to hold stocks that they deem socially responsible, they want a customized portfolio that meets their specifications. Through direct indexing, financial advisers can create a basket of individual stocks designed to hew closely to an established index such as the S&amp;P 500 SPX (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CSPX;onlineSignificance=passing-mention).</p>\n<p>In addition to accommodating clients who want to align their investments with their personal values, there are two other reasons that advisers may offer direct indexing. First, high-net-worth individuals may worry about the tax hit if they sell appreciated stocks. The portfolio optimizer technology that advisers use for direct indexing offers guidance on harvesting tax losses to offset capital gains.</p>\n<p>\"We've had clients who have inherited a portfolio with stocks that produce huge long-term gains,\" said Ken Nuttall, a certified financial planner in West Grove, Pa. \"Direct indexing can help with tax management of inherited assets.\"</p>\n<p>Direct indexing also appeals to clients who have loaded up on their company's stock. Eager to diversify their holdings, they do not want to own other stocks in their industry. So they ask their adviser to track an index like the S&amp;P 500 but without stocks from their employer's sector.</p>\n<p>One downside is that the custom portfolio becomes too independent. \"There is a risk the direct indexing portfolio will deviate from the [benchmark] index,\" said Noah Damsky, a Los Angeles-based adviser. \"The client may be looking to create a tracking error to the upside. But it can lead to a tracking error on the downside.\"</p>\n<p>For many investors, the benefits outweigh that risk. So as long as advisers purchase software that swaps out stocks to advance a client's goals, tailoring portfolios can gain traction.</p>\n<p>\"You'll see more growth in direct indexing in the next year or two,\" Nuttall said. \"Advisers are using it more and appreciating it more.\" The potential for a capital-gains tax increase in the near future adds to the allure of direct indexing. Advisers use the term \"tax alpha\" to describe the process of leveraging tax-saving moves to boost after-tax returns.</p>\n<p>\"Our focus is affluent clients who want us to not just mirror an index but to add tax alpha,\" said Mike Silane, an adviser in Irvine, Calif. \"This is important today, but will be even more important as taxes are likely to rise to pay for today's stimulus and wealthier clients are likely to feel this most.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why direct indexing is gaining traction with financial advisers and their clients</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy direct indexing is gaining traction with financial advisers and their clients\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 23:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Customized portfolio offers tax and diversification benefits.\n</blockquote>\n<p>As more investors -- especially younger, high-income professionals -- want to hold stocks that they deem socially responsible, they want a customized portfolio that meets their specifications. Through direct indexing, financial advisers can create a basket of individual stocks designed to hew closely to an established index such as the S&amp;P 500 SPX (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CSPX;onlineSignificance=passing-mention).</p>\n<p>In addition to accommodating clients who want to align their investments with their personal values, there are two other reasons that advisers may offer direct indexing. First, high-net-worth individuals may worry about the tax hit if they sell appreciated stocks. The portfolio optimizer technology that advisers use for direct indexing offers guidance on harvesting tax losses to offset capital gains.</p>\n<p>\"We've had clients who have inherited a portfolio with stocks that produce huge long-term gains,\" said Ken Nuttall, a certified financial planner in West Grove, Pa. \"Direct indexing can help with tax management of inherited assets.\"</p>\n<p>Direct indexing also appeals to clients who have loaded up on their company's stock. Eager to diversify their holdings, they do not want to own other stocks in their industry. So they ask their adviser to track an index like the S&amp;P 500 but without stocks from their employer's sector.</p>\n<p>One downside is that the custom portfolio becomes too independent. \"There is a risk the direct indexing portfolio will deviate from the [benchmark] index,\" said Noah Damsky, a Los Angeles-based adviser. \"The client may be looking to create a tracking error to the upside. But it can lead to a tracking error on the downside.\"</p>\n<p>For many investors, the benefits outweigh that risk. So as long as advisers purchase software that swaps out stocks to advance a client's goals, tailoring portfolios can gain traction.</p>\n<p>\"You'll see more growth in direct indexing in the next year or two,\" Nuttall said. \"Advisers are using it more and appreciating it more.\" The potential for a capital-gains tax increase in the near future adds to the allure of direct indexing. Advisers use the term \"tax alpha\" to describe the process of leveraging tax-saving moves to boost after-tax returns.</p>\n<p>\"Our focus is affluent clients who want us to not just mirror an index but to add tax alpha,\" said Mike Silane, an adviser in Irvine, Calif. \"This is important today, but will be even more important as taxes are likely to rise to pay for today's stimulus and wealthier clients are likely to feel this most.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142112788","content_text":"Customized portfolio offers tax and diversification benefits.\n\nAs more investors -- especially younger, high-income professionals -- want to hold stocks that they deem socially responsible, they want a customized portfolio that meets their specifications. Through direct indexing, financial advisers can create a basket of individual stocks designed to hew closely to an established index such as the S&P 500 SPX (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CSPX;onlineSignificance=passing-mention).\nIn addition to accommodating clients who want to align their investments with their personal values, there are two other reasons that advisers may offer direct indexing. First, high-net-worth individuals may worry about the tax hit if they sell appreciated stocks. The portfolio optimizer technology that advisers use for direct indexing offers guidance on harvesting tax losses to offset capital gains.\n\"We've had clients who have inherited a portfolio with stocks that produce huge long-term gains,\" said Ken Nuttall, a certified financial planner in West Grove, Pa. \"Direct indexing can help with tax management of inherited assets.\"\nDirect indexing also appeals to clients who have loaded up on their company's stock. Eager to diversify their holdings, they do not want to own other stocks in their industry. So they ask their adviser to track an index like the S&P 500 but without stocks from their employer's sector.\nOne downside is that the custom portfolio becomes too independent. \"There is a risk the direct indexing portfolio will deviate from the [benchmark] index,\" said Noah Damsky, a Los Angeles-based adviser. \"The client may be looking to create a tracking error to the upside. But it can lead to a tracking error on the downside.\"\nFor many investors, the benefits outweigh that risk. So as long as advisers purchase software that swaps out stocks to advance a client's goals, tailoring portfolios can gain traction.\n\"You'll see more growth in direct indexing in the next year or two,\" Nuttall said. \"Advisers are using it more and appreciating it more.\" The potential for a capital-gains tax increase in the near future adds to the allure of direct indexing. Advisers use the term \"tax alpha\" to describe the process of leveraging tax-saving moves to boost after-tax returns.\n\"Our focus is affluent clients who want us to not just mirror an index but to add tax alpha,\" said Mike Silane, an adviser in Irvine, Calif. \"This is important today, but will be even more important as taxes are likely to rise to pay for today's stimulus and wealthier clients are likely to feel this most.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182606658,"gmtCreate":1623566055174,"gmtModify":1704206350079,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182606658","repostId":"2141235375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182601563,"gmtCreate":1623565956452,"gmtModify":1704206347475,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182601563","repostId":"2140542610","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140542610","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622718376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2140542610?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 19:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140542610","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.AMC Entertainment s","content":"<p>AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df04643ab4f4847afdb5d9d3285e25fa\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>AMC Entertainment&nbsp;shares erased a 20% rally and plunged double digits in premarket trading on Thursday following a stock sale announcement.</p><p>The meme stock last traded down 10% after soaring more than 20% earlier Thursday before markets opened.</p><p>AMC said in a regulatory filing that it may offer and sell from time to time up to an aggregate of 11.55 million shares of its Class&nbsp;A common stock.</p><p>The move comes after AMC&nbsp;soared 95% in the regular trading session&nbsp;Wednesday to close at an all-time high of $62.55. Its previous closing record of $35.86 was reached in 2015, according to FactSet data.</p><p>AMC’s stock spiked as it hit an intraday high of $72.62, well above its previous intraday record of $36.72.</p><p>In a similar occurrence seen in January with the meme stocks like GameStop, defiant short-sellers have increased their bets against AMC shares over the last month, possibly fueling the move higher. About 18% of the AMC shares available for trading are still sold short through Wednesday, according to S3 Partners.</p><p>On Wednesday, short-sellers lost $2.8 billion as the stock surged, according to S3. That brings their year-to-date losses to more than $5 billion, according to S3.</p><p>Short sellers like hedge funds borrow the stock from an investment bank and sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price and returning the shares, pocketing the difference. However, when a stock surges higher, a so-called short squeeze can occur where investors are forced to buy back the stock to cut their losses.</p><p>Trading was halted several times Wednesday as shares were up more than 100% at one point. At the end of the day, more than 710 million shares exchanged hands. That’s nearly double the number of AMC’s shares outstanding. The company’s 30-day average volume is just 143 million shares.</p><p>Retail investors — many active on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum — led the AMC rally, and AMC executives have taken note. On Wednesday, the company announced a&nbsp;new portal to connect with individual investors&nbsp;and offered free popcorn, exclusive screenings and other perks to those who hold its stock.</p><p>JPMorgan noted that in the last week, retail order flow into AMC jumped to $583 million, 6.9 standard deviations above the average level of the last one year. According to their quantitative strategy, this kind of imbalance can lead to more outperformance by the stock in coming weeks.</p><p>AMC shares are up 2850% so far this year, bringing its market capitalization to more than $31 billion. That makes it worth more than stocks like Delta Air Lines, State Street and Best Buy.</p><p>Wednesday’s wild trading activity comes even after an investment firm reportedly sold off its stake in the company. On Tuesday, AMC revealed it&nbsp;sold 8.5 million newly issued shares to Mudrick Capital, the latest in a series of capital raises for the stock. The hedge fund later&nbsp;sold all of its AMC stock for a profitthat same day, according to&nbsp;Bloomberg News.</p><p>Most Wall Street analysts believe AMC shares will plummet eventually. The average 12-month target price of analysts is $5.11, according to FactSet.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment Holdings Files To Sell Up To 11.55Mln Shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-03 19:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df04643ab4f4847afdb5d9d3285e25fa\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>AMC Entertainment&nbsp;shares erased a 20% rally and plunged double digits in premarket trading on Thursday following a stock sale announcement.</p><p>The meme stock last traded down 10% after soaring more than 20% earlier Thursday before markets opened.</p><p>AMC said in a regulatory filing that it may offer and sell from time to time up to an aggregate of 11.55 million shares of its Class&nbsp;A common stock.</p><p>The move comes after AMC&nbsp;soared 95% in the regular trading session&nbsp;Wednesday to close at an all-time high of $62.55. Its previous closing record of $35.86 was reached in 2015, according to FactSet data.</p><p>AMC’s stock spiked as it hit an intraday high of $72.62, well above its previous intraday record of $36.72.</p><p>In a similar occurrence seen in January with the meme stocks like GameStop, defiant short-sellers have increased their bets against AMC shares over the last month, possibly fueling the move higher. About 18% of the AMC shares available for trading are still sold short through Wednesday, according to S3 Partners.</p><p>On Wednesday, short-sellers lost $2.8 billion as the stock surged, according to S3. That brings their year-to-date losses to more than $5 billion, according to S3.</p><p>Short sellers like hedge funds borrow the stock from an investment bank and sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price and returning the shares, pocketing the difference. However, when a stock surges higher, a so-called short squeeze can occur where investors are forced to buy back the stock to cut their losses.</p><p>Trading was halted several times Wednesday as shares were up more than 100% at one point. At the end of the day, more than 710 million shares exchanged hands. That’s nearly double the number of AMC’s shares outstanding. The company’s 30-day average volume is just 143 million shares.</p><p>Retail investors — many active on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum — led the AMC rally, and AMC executives have taken note. On Wednesday, the company announced a&nbsp;new portal to connect with individual investors&nbsp;and offered free popcorn, exclusive screenings and other perks to those who hold its stock.</p><p>JPMorgan noted that in the last week, retail order flow into AMC jumped to $583 million, 6.9 standard deviations above the average level of the last one year. According to their quantitative strategy, this kind of imbalance can lead to more outperformance by the stock in coming weeks.</p><p>AMC shares are up 2850% so far this year, bringing its market capitalization to more than $31 billion. That makes it worth more than stocks like Delta Air Lines, State Street and Best Buy.</p><p>Wednesday’s wild trading activity comes even after an investment firm reportedly sold off its stake in the company. On Tuesday, AMC revealed it&nbsp;sold 8.5 million newly issued shares to Mudrick Capital, the latest in a series of capital raises for the stock. The hedge fund later&nbsp;sold all of its AMC stock for a profitthat same day, according to&nbsp;Bloomberg News.</p><p>Most Wall Street analysts believe AMC shares will plummet eventually. The average 12-month target price of analysts is $5.11, according to FactSet.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140542610","content_text":"AMC tumbles 10% after new stock sale announcement, wipes out 20% premarket rally.AMC Entertainment shares erased a 20% rally and plunged double digits in premarket trading on Thursday following a stock sale announcement.The meme stock last traded down 10% after soaring more than 20% earlier Thursday before markets opened.AMC said in a regulatory filing that it may offer and sell from time to time up to an aggregate of 11.55 million shares of its Class A common stock.The move comes after AMC soared 95% in the regular trading session Wednesday to close at an all-time high of $62.55. Its previous closing record of $35.86 was reached in 2015, according to FactSet data.AMC’s stock spiked as it hit an intraday high of $72.62, well above its previous intraday record of $36.72.In a similar occurrence seen in January with the meme stocks like GameStop, defiant short-sellers have increased their bets against AMC shares over the last month, possibly fueling the move higher. About 18% of the AMC shares available for trading are still sold short through Wednesday, according to S3 Partners.On Wednesday, short-sellers lost $2.8 billion as the stock surged, according to S3. That brings their year-to-date losses to more than $5 billion, according to S3.Short sellers like hedge funds borrow the stock from an investment bank and sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price and returning the shares, pocketing the difference. However, when a stock surges higher, a so-called short squeeze can occur where investors are forced to buy back the stock to cut their losses.Trading was halted several times Wednesday as shares were up more than 100% at one point. At the end of the day, more than 710 million shares exchanged hands. That’s nearly double the number of AMC’s shares outstanding. The company’s 30-day average volume is just 143 million shares.Retail investors — many active on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum — led the AMC rally, and AMC executives have taken note. On Wednesday, the company announced a new portal to connect with individual investors and offered free popcorn, exclusive screenings and other perks to those who hold its stock.JPMorgan noted that in the last week, retail order flow into AMC jumped to $583 million, 6.9 standard deviations above the average level of the last one year. According to their quantitative strategy, this kind of imbalance can lead to more outperformance by the stock in coming weeks.AMC shares are up 2850% so far this year, bringing its market capitalization to more than $31 billion. That makes it worth more than stocks like Delta Air Lines, State Street and Best Buy.Wednesday’s wild trading activity comes even after an investment firm reportedly sold off its stake in the company. On Tuesday, AMC revealed it sold 8.5 million newly issued shares to Mudrick Capital, the latest in a series of capital raises for the stock. The hedge fund later sold all of its AMC stock for a profitthat same day, according to Bloomberg News.Most Wall Street analysts believe AMC shares will plummet eventually. The average 12-month target price of analysts is $5.11, according to FactSet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182601689,"gmtCreate":1623565945741,"gmtModify":1704206346664,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182601689","repostId":"2140542610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182600125,"gmtCreate":1623565750267,"gmtModify":1704206342602,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182600125","repostId":"1170860218","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182877959,"gmtCreate":1623565673071,"gmtModify":1704206340983,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182877959","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198311684?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p>\n<p>Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p>\n<p>Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p>\n<p>Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p>\n<p>Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p>\n<p>An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p>\n<p>Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p>\n<p>The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p>\n<p>Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182874403,"gmtCreate":1623565662802,"gmtModify":1704206340496,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182874403","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142204074","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623441637,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142204074?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P ekes out gains to close languid week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142204074","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, June 11  - The S&P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.Economically sensitive smallcaps and transports notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.For the week, the S&P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.But th","content":"<p>NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive smallcaps and transports&nbsp;notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.</p>\n<p>For the week, the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.</p>\n<p>But the indexes have been range-bound, with few catalysts to move investor sentiment. Much of the focus centered on Thursday's consumer price data, which eased jitters over the duration of the current inflation wave.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a muted day today,\" Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. \"The summer is settling in, people are slipping out of work early and there’s nothing in the news that’s going to materially drive the market in either direction.\"</p>\n<p>\"So, investors are going to wait until earnings season.\"</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that near-term price surges will not metastasize into lasting inflation, an assertion reflected in the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report released on Friday, which showed inflation expectations easing from last month's spike.</p>\n<p>Investors now turn their attention to the Fed's statement at the conclusion of next week's two-day monetary policy meeting, which will be parsed for clues regarding the central bank's timetable for raising key interest rates.</p>\n<p>\"Our view continues to be that inflationary data is transient and we will be around the 2% mark for the year,\" Pursche added.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly drop in nearly a year, weighing on the interest-sensitive financial sector in recent sessions.</p>\n<p>The Food and Drug Administration is facing mounting criticism over its \"accelerated approval\" of Biogen Inc's</p>\n<p>Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm without strong evidence of its ability to combat the disease.</p>\n<p>Biogen shares, along with the broader healthcare sector&nbsp;ended the session lower.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.41 points, or 0.04%, to 34,480.65, the S&amp;P 500 gained 8.29 points, or 0.20%, to 4,247.47 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;added 49.09 points, or 0.35%, to 14,069.42.</p>\n<p>Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare suffered the biggest percentage drop.</p>\n<p>Much of the trading volume this week was attributable to the ongoing social media-driven \"meme stock\" phenomenon, in which retail investors swarm around heavily shorted stocks.</p>\n<p>But meme stock moves were more muted on Friday, with AMC Entertainment outperforming.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stephen Culp in New York Additional reporting by Ambar Warrick and Devik Jain in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew Lewis and Cynthia Osterman)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P ekes out gains to close languid week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P ekes out gains to close languid week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive smallcaps and transports&nbsp;notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.</p>\n<p>For the week, the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.</p>\n<p>But the indexes have been range-bound, with few catalysts to move investor sentiment. Much of the focus centered on Thursday's consumer price data, which eased jitters over the duration of the current inflation wave.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a muted day today,\" Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. \"The summer is settling in, people are slipping out of work early and there’s nothing in the news that’s going to materially drive the market in either direction.\"</p>\n<p>\"So, investors are going to wait until earnings season.\"</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that near-term price surges will not metastasize into lasting inflation, an assertion reflected in the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report released on Friday, which showed inflation expectations easing from last month's spike.</p>\n<p>Investors now turn their attention to the Fed's statement at the conclusion of next week's two-day monetary policy meeting, which will be parsed for clues regarding the central bank's timetable for raising key interest rates.</p>\n<p>\"Our view continues to be that inflationary data is transient and we will be around the 2% mark for the year,\" Pursche added.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly drop in nearly a year, weighing on the interest-sensitive financial sector in recent sessions.</p>\n<p>The Food and Drug Administration is facing mounting criticism over its \"accelerated approval\" of Biogen Inc's</p>\n<p>Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm without strong evidence of its ability to combat the disease.</p>\n<p>Biogen shares, along with the broader healthcare sector&nbsp;ended the session lower.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.41 points, or 0.04%, to 34,480.65, the S&amp;P 500 gained 8.29 points, or 0.20%, to 4,247.47 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;added 49.09 points, or 0.35%, to 14,069.42.</p>\n<p>Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare suffered the biggest percentage drop.</p>\n<p>Much of the trading volume this week was attributable to the ongoing social media-driven \"meme stock\" phenomenon, in which retail investors swarm around heavily shorted stocks.</p>\n<p>But meme stock moves were more muted on Friday, with AMC Entertainment outperforming.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stephen Culp in New York Additional reporting by Ambar Warrick and Devik Jain in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew Lewis and Cynthia Osterman)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142204074","content_text":"NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.\nEconomically sensitive smallcaps and transports notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.\nFor the week, the S&P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.\nBut the indexes have been range-bound, with few catalysts to move investor sentiment. Much of the focus centered on Thursday's consumer price data, which eased jitters over the duration of the current inflation wave.\n\"It’s a muted day today,\" Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. \"The summer is settling in, people are slipping out of work early and there’s nothing in the news that’s going to materially drive the market in either direction.\"\n\"So, investors are going to wait until earnings season.\"\nThe Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that near-term price surges will not metastasize into lasting inflation, an assertion reflected in the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report released on Friday, which showed inflation expectations easing from last month's spike.\nInvestors now turn their attention to the Fed's statement at the conclusion of next week's two-day monetary policy meeting, which will be parsed for clues regarding the central bank's timetable for raising key interest rates.\n\"Our view continues to be that inflationary data is transient and we will be around the 2% mark for the year,\" Pursche added.\nBenchmark U.S. Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly drop in nearly a year, weighing on the interest-sensitive financial sector in recent sessions.\nThe Food and Drug Administration is facing mounting criticism over its \"accelerated approval\" of Biogen Inc's\nAlzheimer's drug Aduhelm without strong evidence of its ability to combat the disease.\nBiogen shares, along with the broader healthcare sector ended the session lower.\nUnofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.41 points, or 0.04%, to 34,480.65, the S&P 500 gained 8.29 points, or 0.20%, to 4,247.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 49.09 points, or 0.35%, to 14,069.42.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare suffered the biggest percentage drop.\nMuch of the trading volume this week was attributable to the ongoing social media-driven \"meme stock\" phenomenon, in which retail investors swarm around heavily shorted stocks.\nBut meme stock moves were more muted on Friday, with AMC Entertainment outperforming.\n(Reporting by Stephen Culp in New York Additional reporting by Ambar Warrick and Devik Jain in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew Lewis and Cynthia Osterman)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182874668,"gmtCreate":1623565650054,"gmtModify":1704206339983,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182874668","repostId":"1190309980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182875703,"gmtCreate":1623565638102,"gmtModify":1704206339164,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182875703","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118102755?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p>\n<p>The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p>\n<p>The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p>\n<p>What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Rising yields</b></p>\n<p>Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p>\n<p>“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p>\n<p>That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p>\n<p><b>Fed tapering</b></p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p>\n<p>“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p>\n<p>“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p>\n<p>He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p>\n<p>As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p>\n<p><b>How to prepare</b></p>\n<p>When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p>\n<p>The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p>\n<p>Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p>\n<p>“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p>\n<p>Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p>\n<p><b>Your five-point game plan</b></p>\n<p><b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p>\n<p>When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p>\n<p>“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p>\n<p><b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p>\n<p>Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p>I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p>\n<p>If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p>\n<p>“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p>\n<p>Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p><b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p>\n<p>Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p>\n<p><b>5. Go with financials</b></p>\n<p>Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p>\n<p>The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182875672,"gmtCreate":1623565627096,"gmtModify":1704206338678,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182875672","repostId":"1148565686","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148565686","pubTimestamp":1623514343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148565686?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-13 00:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Is The Ultimate Warren Buffett Stock, But Should You Buy It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148565686","media":"investors","summary":"Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire stock has cleared a buy zone, but is it a good buy for you now?Let's take a close look at the fundamental and technical performance of the ultimate Warren Buffett stock.Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate that owns some of America's most famous firms. It wholly owns the likes of Geico, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and ","content":"<p>Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(BRKB). Berkshire stock has cleared a buy zone, but is it a good buy for you now? Let's take a close look at the fundamental and technical performance of the ultimate Warren Buffett stock.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate that owns some of America's most famous firms. It wholly owns the likes of Geico, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and railroad operator BNSF.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is perhaps more famous for serving as an investment vehicle for Warren Buffett and his top lieutenant, Charlie Munger. Following their value investing philosophy,the company owns huge stakesin&nbsp;<b>American Express</b>(AXP),&nbsp;<b>Coca-Cola</b>(KO) and other heavy hitters.</p>\n<p>But the definition of a Warren Buffett stock has evolved in recent years.&nbsp;Warren Buffett became a big investor in airlines such as<b>Delta Air Lines</b>(DAL). But he was left to rue his decision to go against his own long-held views about that industry's lack of profitability. The move blew up in his face as airline stocks were decimated due to the global coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>Under investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, Berkshire Hathaway has been increasingly sinking money into tech. It's taken large positions in established giants like<b>Apple</b>(AAPL), as well as younger companies like Brazilian payments company<b>StoneCo</b>(STNE) and new software IPO<b>Snowflake</b>(SNOW). Berkshire also snapped up a stake in<b>Amazon.com</b>(AMZN).</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett Anoints Successor</b></p>\n<p>One of the biggest questions around the future of Berkshire Hathaway in recent years was who would take over the mantle of CEO from Buffett.</p>\n<p>The Oracle of Omahahas finally gave the answer. He said Greg Abel, who runs the noninsurance businesses, will take over in his stead.</p>\n<p>\"The directors are in agreement that if something were to happen to me tonight, it would be Greg who'd take over tomorrow morning,\" the legendary investor told CNBC.</p>\n<p>Berkshire's Vice Chairman Charlie Munger dropped a massive hint during the&nbsp;company's annual meeting in Los Angeles, mentioning that \"Greg will keep the culture.\"</p>\n<p>Abel, 58, has been a Berkshire vice chairman since 2018, and had long been viewed by analysts as a possible successor. The Canadian is chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. He has also been vice chairman of Berkshire's noninsurance operations since January 2018.</p>\n<p><b>Buffett Snaps Up Berkshire Stock</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway revealed in its Q1 earnings report that it had snapped up $6.6 billion more of its shares. It comesafter a record $27.4 billion in repurchaseslast year. This was down from the $9 billion in stock it had purchased in each of the previous two quarters however.</p>\n<p>After historically shying away from repurchases, Berkshire Hathaway stock has become one of Buffett's top purchases.&nbsp;Berkshire's aggressive share repurchases contrasts with the M&amp;A deals spun by the investor during and after the 2008 financial crash.</p>\n<p>While he has historically been reluctant to splurge on stock repurchases, he explained his change of heart in his latest annual letter to shareholders.</p>\n<p>\"The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time,\" he wrote. \"The process offers a simple way for investors to own an ever-expanding portion of exceptional businesses.\"</p>\n<p>Berkshire loosened rules for Buffett to buy back shares in 2018. With Berkshire steadfastly cautious on M&amp;A in recent years, investors have been clamoring for more repurchases.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Tweaks Portfolio</b></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett took a huge stake in<b>Verizon</b>(VZ) stock while dumping JPMorgan (JPM) stock entirely, according to thefirm's latest regulatory filing.</p>\n<p>Its new Verizon stake is massive, with Berkshire paying $8.62 billion for 147 million shares. It now accounts for 3% of the portfolio, making it the No. 6 stock by number of shares held.</p>\n<p>Buffett also opened new stakes in<b>Chevron</b>(CVX),<b>Marsh &amp; McLennan</b>(MMC) and<b>EW Scripps</b>(SSP) in Q4.</p>\n<p>Berkshire dumped entirely<b>Pfizer</b>(PFE),<b>JPMorgan Chase</b>(JPM),<b>Barrick Gold</b>(GOLD),<b>M&amp;T Bank</b>(MTB) and<b>PNC Financial</b>(PNC).</p>\n<p>The conglomerate grew stakes by 117% in<b>T-Mobile</b>(TMUS), 34% in<b>Kroger</b>(KR), 28% in<b>Merck</b>(MRK), 20% in<b>AbbVie</b>(ABBV), 11% in<b>Bristol-Myers Squibb</b>(BMY), and 1% in<b>RH</b>(RH).</p>\n<p>Buffett cut Berkshire's stake in Apple stock by 6%. It remains the No. 1 stock in his portfolio by market value and No. 2 stock by number of shares held, at 10.6% of the portfolio. He kept an Amazon stake steady.</p>\n<p>During its most recent earnings report, the firm revealed it had sold $6.45 billion in stock in Q1 and bought $2.57 billion in stock.</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett Funds Media Deal</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is a key backer in a deal disclosed Sept. 24 that will see TV station owner<b>E.W. Scripps</b>(SSP) purchase privately held cable network ION Media for $2.65 billion. The latter firm's flagship, ION Television, is a top 5-ranked U.S. general entertainment network.</p>\n<p>Warren Buffett's firm is snapping up $600 million of Scripps preferred shares to help fund the deal. Scripps stock surged on on the news.</p>\n<p>Berkshire will also receive a warrant that allows it to snap up up to 23.1 million more shares at a price of $13. This adds up to an additional investment of $300 million. Scripps' common shares currently trade at more than 21 each.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Coronavirus Exposure</b></p>\n<p>As well as its status as an investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate in its own right. It has interests in segments such as railroads, utilities and energy.</p>\n<p>Those sectors, along with other \"real economy\" companies that are Warren Buffett staples, have been hard hit by the coronavirus shutdowns and massive economic contraction. However they should benefit as the economy opens up again.</p>\n<p>Berkshire owns Geico, the No. 2 U.S. auto insurer after State Farm. Currently, states such as California are ordering insurers to give partial credits or refunds of premiums in lines such as private passenger automobile insurance.</p>\n<p>Berkshire also owns BNSF Railway Company, the largest freight railroad network in North America. Rail operators such as<b>Union Pacific</b>(UNP) and<b>CSX</b>(CSX) have seen business suffer during the pandemic. But rail operators and other transportation companies are seeing business pick up again.</p>\n<p>Other wholly owned businesses such as Dairy Queen and multilevel marketing company Pampered Chef also struggled during coronavirus restrictions, though those are easing.</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett's Big Gas Bill</b></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett has been criticized for the size of his cash pile. But last July he madehis biggest acquisition in yearswith a $10 billion deal for<b>Dominion Energy</b>'s (D) assets.</p>\n<p>Berkshire seized the chance to secure Dominion's gas pipeline network after the utility giant and<b>Duke Energy</b>(DUK) unexpectedly aborted plans to build the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway Energy will buy about 7,700 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines and 900 billion cubic feet of gas storage. The all-cash deal includes $4 billion of equity and $5.7 billion of debt. It's set to close in the fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>\"We are very proud to be adding such a great portfolio of natural gas assets to our already strong energy business,\" Buffett said in a statement.</p>\n<p>Energy has been doing well so far in 2021. For example, the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) is up almost 40% since the start of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Stock Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway stock is in a profit-taking zone after breaking out of aflat base, according toMarketSmith analysis. Theideal buy pointwas 235.09. Shares offered a follow-on buy point around 246 in late March after a test of the 10-week line, but are extended from here as well.</p>\n<p>It could go on to form a new base with an entry point of 295.18, it can continue to consolidate below this level.</p>\n<p>BRKB stock is well clear after pulling away from its50-day moving average, though the key technical benchmark is beginning to catch up. This is a positive sign for holders of the stock.</p>\n<p>Therelative strength lineof Berkshire Hathaway stock has been slippi8ng somewhat of late after a spell of progress that kicked off in mid-March. BRKB stock is outperforming in 2021. So far this year, it is up around 23%, which beats the broader S&amp;P 500's return of almost 13%.</p>\n<p>ItsIBD Composite Ratingnow sits at 69 out of 99. This is not ideal, but puts it in the top 31% of stocks tracked overall.</p>\n<p>Earnings are&nbsp; improving, with EPS accelerating for the past two quarters. However earnings have only grown by an average of 5% over the past three quarters, with coronavirus pandemic lockdowns having an impact.&nbsp;The CAN SLIM systemrecommends investors look for companies with average EPS growth of at least 25% over this time period.</p>\n<p>Wall Street is becoming more optimistic for Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth going forward. Analysts are projecting annual earnings will rise 24% 2021, before moderating to 7% growth in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett Recommendation</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire stock had been lagging the S&amp;P 500 index since the end of 2018. Before that, BRKB stock at best moved with the market for a decade. An investor could have bought an index fund or ETF like the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY), and generated similar or higher returns with less stock-specific risk.</p>\n<p>\"In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is owning the S&amp;P 500 index fund, Buffett himself previously said at a Berkshire annual meeting. \"If you bet on America and sustain that position for decades, you'd do far better than buying Treasury securities, or far better than following people. Perhaps with a bias, I don't believe anyone knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year.\"</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, BRKB stock has been outperforming the S&amp;P 500 so far this year. It could now finally be set for a decent period of outperformance.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Earnings Improve</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway earnings per share popped 27% in Q1, rising to $3.05. This was well clear of analyst views for EPS of $2.57. Its operating profit, which excludes some investment results, came in at $7 billion.</p>\n<p>The conglomerate's total revenue came in at $64.6 billion last quarter, which was also more than analysts expected.</p>\n<p>The firm's wheeling and dealing on the stock market also saw the firm turn in good gains, increasing approximately $4.69 billion last quarter. However the firm stresses that gains and losses in any particular quarter are \"usually meaningless.\" This fits in with Buffett's longer-term investment philosophy.</p>\n<p><b>Buffett's Cash Mountain Still Mighty</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire's cash pile grew to $145.4 billion in Q1 from $138.3 billion in Q4. It is creeping back up to record level it reached in the third quarter of last year. This has raised expectations that Buffett would make a big acquisition, but he has preferred to sit on the sidelines amid spiraling stock prices.</p>\n<p>Having such a large supply of cash protects the Warren Buffett stock during tough times. It also mean Berkshire Hathaway is able to deploy capital when desirable businesses become available for purchase.</p>\n<p>The more aggressive buying of Berkshire's own shares of late contrasts with Buffett's deals during and after the Great Recession. This indicates he believes that the latest economic downturn and recovery, so far, offer none of the bargains he has historically pounced on.</p>\n<p><b>Analyst Backs Berkshire Stock</b></p>\n<p>CFRA analyst Catherine Seifert is rating BRKB stock as a hold with a 295 price target. She pointed out the mixed nature of the firm's recent earnings report.</p>\n<p>\"Results reflected a doubling of underwriting profits and 12% higher rail/energy/utility profits, despite 13% lower in investment income,\" she said in a May 3 research note. \"We applaud the 33% rise in energy revenues amid contributions from an acquisition, but rail revenues declined fractionally and insurance premium growth of 4.3% lagged peers.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, she said the shares are currently \"fairly valued versus historical levels.\" The analyst also believes there could be changes afoot once he firm's legendary CEO steps down.</p>\n<p>\"We are disappointed climate change and diversity initiatives failed to be approved at the annual meeting, and think this increases the likelihood of activism in a post-Buffet era,\" she said.</p>\n<p><b>Difference Between BRKA Stock And BRKB Stock</b></p>\n<p>The most obvious difference between Berkshire Hathaway's A class and B class shares is the price. While — at over 200 a share — BRKB stock may be considered relatively expensive, BRKA stock is the most expensive on the market, currently trading near $430,000 a share.</p>\n<p>Warren Buffett decided to introduce the BRKB shares to allow investors to purchase stock directly. Big demand for Berkshire Hathaway stock forced less-moneyed players to plow cash into unit trusts or mutual funds that mirrored his company's holdings.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Today</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway operates in four main sectors.</p>\n<p>Its insurance group is one of its biggest cash cows. One of the most famous jewels in the crown is Geico. Other parts of this business include multinational property/casualty and life/health reinsurance company General Re and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group. The latter underwrites excess-of-loss reinsurance and quota-share coverage globally.</p>\n<p>Insurance operations are a big reason why Berkshire Hathaway earnings can be lumpy.</p>\n<p>Its Regulated Utility Business group includes Berkshire Hathaway Energy, formerly known as MidAmerican Energy. It also includes railway services arm BNSF, North America's largest freight railroad network.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Manufacturing, Service &amp; Retailing group includes Acme Building Brands, Fruit of the Loom and Justin Brands. The likes of Buffalo News, Business Wire, Dairy Queen and NetJets fall under the service subsector. Retailers include See's Candies, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Helzberg Diamond Shops and Star Furniture.</p>\n<p>Finally, the Finance &amp; Financial Products segment includes: Hathaway Credit Corporation, transportation equipment and furniture leasing specialists XTRA and CORT, and BH Finance whose main interest is in proprietary investing strategies.</p>\n<p><b>Is Berkshire Hathaway Stock A Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p>While Berkshire Hathaway stock has been lagging the S&amp;P 500 index since late 2018, it has been handily outperforming in 2021. However, Berkshire stock is now well clear of its most recent buy zone. Investors keen on the stock could add it to their watchlist, and wait for a new buying opportunity to emerge.</p>\n<p>While its Composite Rating is still not up to scratch, it has improved on this front as well. This makes it an option worth watching for investors seeking to add to their portfolio a well established stock with a diversified portfolio of businesses.</p>\n<p>However, it is worth remember that, after a late-2018 burst, Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth has been modest and uneven. While Wall Street sees solid EPS growth ahead for Berkshire in 2021 and 2022, it still remains shy of the rates sought by CAN SLIM investors.</p>\n<p>Bottom line: Berkshire Hathaway stock is not a buy at the moment. Those interested in buying the ultimate Warren Buffett stock should add it to their watchlist, and wait to see if it forms a new base.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Is The Ultimate Warren Buffett Stock, But Should You Buy It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Is The Ultimate Warren Buffett Stock, But Should You Buy It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 00:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/research/berkshire-hathaway-stock-buy-now-warren-buffett-stock/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,Berkshire Hathaway(BRKB). Berkshire stock has cleared a buy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/research/berkshire-hathaway-stock-buy-now-warren-buffett-stock/?src=A00220\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/research/berkshire-hathaway-stock-buy-now-warren-buffett-stock/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148565686","content_text":"Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,Berkshire Hathaway(BRKB). Berkshire stock has cleared a buy zone, but is it a good buy for you now? Let's take a close look at the fundamental and technical performance of the ultimate Warren Buffett stock.\nBerkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate that owns some of America's most famous firms. It wholly owns the likes of Geico, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and railroad operator BNSF.\nBerkshire Hathaway is perhaps more famous for serving as an investment vehicle for Warren Buffett and his top lieutenant, Charlie Munger. Following their value investing philosophy,the company owns huge stakesin American Express(AXP), Coca-Cola(KO) and other heavy hitters.\nBut the definition of a Warren Buffett stock has evolved in recent years. Warren Buffett became a big investor in airlines such asDelta Air Lines(DAL). But he was left to rue his decision to go against his own long-held views about that industry's lack of profitability. The move blew up in his face as airline stocks were decimated due to the global coronavirus pandemic.\nUnder investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, Berkshire Hathaway has been increasingly sinking money into tech. It's taken large positions in established giants likeApple(AAPL), as well as younger companies like Brazilian payments companyStoneCo(STNE) and new software IPOSnowflake(SNOW). Berkshire also snapped up a stake inAmazon.com(AMZN).\nWarren Buffett Anoints Successor\nOne of the biggest questions around the future of Berkshire Hathaway in recent years was who would take over the mantle of CEO from Buffett.\nThe Oracle of Omahahas finally gave the answer. He said Greg Abel, who runs the noninsurance businesses, will take over in his stead.\n\"The directors are in agreement that if something were to happen to me tonight, it would be Greg who'd take over tomorrow morning,\" the legendary investor told CNBC.\nBerkshire's Vice Chairman Charlie Munger dropped a massive hint during the company's annual meeting in Los Angeles, mentioning that \"Greg will keep the culture.\"\nAbel, 58, has been a Berkshire vice chairman since 2018, and had long been viewed by analysts as a possible successor. The Canadian is chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. He has also been vice chairman of Berkshire's noninsurance operations since January 2018.\nBuffett Snaps Up Berkshire Stock\nBerkshire Hathaway revealed in its Q1 earnings report that it had snapped up $6.6 billion more of its shares. It comesafter a record $27.4 billion in repurchaseslast year. This was down from the $9 billion in stock it had purchased in each of the previous two quarters however.\nAfter historically shying away from repurchases, Berkshire Hathaway stock has become one of Buffett's top purchases. Berkshire's aggressive share repurchases contrasts with the M&A deals spun by the investor during and after the 2008 financial crash.\nWhile he has historically been reluctant to splurge on stock repurchases, he explained his change of heart in his latest annual letter to shareholders.\n\"The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time,\" he wrote. \"The process offers a simple way for investors to own an ever-expanding portion of exceptional businesses.\"\nBerkshire loosened rules for Buffett to buy back shares in 2018. With Berkshire steadfastly cautious on M&A in recent years, investors have been clamoring for more repurchases.\nBerkshire Hathaway Tweaks Portfolio\nWarren Buffett took a huge stake inVerizon(VZ) stock while dumping JPMorgan (JPM) stock entirely, according to thefirm's latest regulatory filing.\nIts new Verizon stake is massive, with Berkshire paying $8.62 billion for 147 million shares. It now accounts for 3% of the portfolio, making it the No. 6 stock by number of shares held.\nBuffett also opened new stakes inChevron(CVX),Marsh & McLennan(MMC) andEW Scripps(SSP) in Q4.\nBerkshire dumped entirelyPfizer(PFE),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),Barrick Gold(GOLD),M&T Bank(MTB) andPNC Financial(PNC).\nThe conglomerate grew stakes by 117% inT-Mobile(TMUS), 34% inKroger(KR), 28% inMerck(MRK), 20% inAbbVie(ABBV), 11% inBristol-Myers Squibb(BMY), and 1% inRH(RH).\nBuffett cut Berkshire's stake in Apple stock by 6%. It remains the No. 1 stock in his portfolio by market value and No. 2 stock by number of shares held, at 10.6% of the portfolio. He kept an Amazon stake steady.\nDuring its most recent earnings report, the firm revealed it had sold $6.45 billion in stock in Q1 and bought $2.57 billion in stock.\nWarren Buffett Funds Media Deal\nBerkshire Hathaway is a key backer in a deal disclosed Sept. 24 that will see TV station ownerE.W. Scripps(SSP) purchase privately held cable network ION Media for $2.65 billion. The latter firm's flagship, ION Television, is a top 5-ranked U.S. general entertainment network.\nWarren Buffett's firm is snapping up $600 million of Scripps preferred shares to help fund the deal. Scripps stock surged on on the news.\nBerkshire will also receive a warrant that allows it to snap up up to 23.1 million more shares at a price of $13. This adds up to an additional investment of $300 million. Scripps' common shares currently trade at more than 21 each.\nBerkshire Hathaway Coronavirus Exposure\nAs well as its status as an investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate in its own right. It has interests in segments such as railroads, utilities and energy.\nThose sectors, along with other \"real economy\" companies that are Warren Buffett staples, have been hard hit by the coronavirus shutdowns and massive economic contraction. However they should benefit as the economy opens up again.\nBerkshire owns Geico, the No. 2 U.S. auto insurer after State Farm. Currently, states such as California are ordering insurers to give partial credits or refunds of premiums in lines such as private passenger automobile insurance.\nBerkshire also owns BNSF Railway Company, the largest freight railroad network in North America. Rail operators such asUnion Pacific(UNP) andCSX(CSX) have seen business suffer during the pandemic. But rail operators and other transportation companies are seeing business pick up again.\nOther wholly owned businesses such as Dairy Queen and multilevel marketing company Pampered Chef also struggled during coronavirus restrictions, though those are easing.\nWarren Buffett's Big Gas Bill\nWarren Buffett has been criticized for the size of his cash pile. But last July he madehis biggest acquisition in yearswith a $10 billion deal forDominion Energy's (D) assets.\nBerkshire seized the chance to secure Dominion's gas pipeline network after the utility giant andDuke Energy(DUK) unexpectedly aborted plans to build the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.\nBerkshire Hathaway Energy will buy about 7,700 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines and 900 billion cubic feet of gas storage. The all-cash deal includes $4 billion of equity and $5.7 billion of debt. It's set to close in the fourth quarter.\n\"We are very proud to be adding such a great portfolio of natural gas assets to our already strong energy business,\" Buffett said in a statement.\nEnergy has been doing well so far in 2021. For example, the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) is up almost 40% since the start of the year.\nBerkshire Hathaway Stock Technical Analysis\nBerkshire Hathaway stock is in a profit-taking zone after breaking out of aflat base, according toMarketSmith analysis. Theideal buy pointwas 235.09. Shares offered a follow-on buy point around 246 in late March after a test of the 10-week line, but are extended from here as well.\nIt could go on to form a new base with an entry point of 295.18, it can continue to consolidate below this level.\nBRKB stock is well clear after pulling away from its50-day moving average, though the key technical benchmark is beginning to catch up. This is a positive sign for holders of the stock.\nTherelative strength lineof Berkshire Hathaway stock has been slippi8ng somewhat of late after a spell of progress that kicked off in mid-March. BRKB stock is outperforming in 2021. So far this year, it is up around 23%, which beats the broader S&P 500's return of almost 13%.\nItsIBD Composite Ratingnow sits at 69 out of 99. This is not ideal, but puts it in the top 31% of stocks tracked overall.\nEarnings are  improving, with EPS accelerating for the past two quarters. However earnings have only grown by an average of 5% over the past three quarters, with coronavirus pandemic lockdowns having an impact. The CAN SLIM systemrecommends investors look for companies with average EPS growth of at least 25% over this time period.\nWall Street is becoming more optimistic for Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth going forward. Analysts are projecting annual earnings will rise 24% 2021, before moderating to 7% growth in 2022.\nWarren Buffett Recommendation\nBerkshire stock had been lagging the S&P 500 index since the end of 2018. Before that, BRKB stock at best moved with the market for a decade. An investor could have bought an index fund or ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and generated similar or higher returns with less stock-specific risk.\n\"In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is owning the S&P 500 index fund, Buffett himself previously said at a Berkshire annual meeting. \"If you bet on America and sustain that position for decades, you'd do far better than buying Treasury securities, or far better than following people. Perhaps with a bias, I don't believe anyone knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year.\"\nNevertheless, BRKB stock has been outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year. It could now finally be set for a decent period of outperformance.\nBerkshire Hathaway Earnings Improve\nBerkshire Hathaway earnings per share popped 27% in Q1, rising to $3.05. This was well clear of analyst views for EPS of $2.57. Its operating profit, which excludes some investment results, came in at $7 billion.\nThe conglomerate's total revenue came in at $64.6 billion last quarter, which was also more than analysts expected.\nThe firm's wheeling and dealing on the stock market also saw the firm turn in good gains, increasing approximately $4.69 billion last quarter. However the firm stresses that gains and losses in any particular quarter are \"usually meaningless.\" This fits in with Buffett's longer-term investment philosophy.\nBuffett's Cash Mountain Still Mighty\nBerkshire's cash pile grew to $145.4 billion in Q1 from $138.3 billion in Q4. It is creeping back up to record level it reached in the third quarter of last year. This has raised expectations that Buffett would make a big acquisition, but he has preferred to sit on the sidelines amid spiraling stock prices.\nHaving such a large supply of cash protects the Warren Buffett stock during tough times. It also mean Berkshire Hathaway is able to deploy capital when desirable businesses become available for purchase.\nThe more aggressive buying of Berkshire's own shares of late contrasts with Buffett's deals during and after the Great Recession. This indicates he believes that the latest economic downturn and recovery, so far, offer none of the bargains he has historically pounced on.\nAnalyst Backs Berkshire Stock\nCFRA analyst Catherine Seifert is rating BRKB stock as a hold with a 295 price target. She pointed out the mixed nature of the firm's recent earnings report.\n\"Results reflected a doubling of underwriting profits and 12% higher rail/energy/utility profits, despite 13% lower in investment income,\" she said in a May 3 research note. \"We applaud the 33% rise in energy revenues amid contributions from an acquisition, but rail revenues declined fractionally and insurance premium growth of 4.3% lagged peers.\nNevertheless, she said the shares are currently \"fairly valued versus historical levels.\" The analyst also believes there could be changes afoot once he firm's legendary CEO steps down.\n\"We are disappointed climate change and diversity initiatives failed to be approved at the annual meeting, and think this increases the likelihood of activism in a post-Buffet era,\" she said.\nDifference Between BRKA Stock And BRKB Stock\nThe most obvious difference between Berkshire Hathaway's A class and B class shares is the price. While — at over 200 a share — BRKB stock may be considered relatively expensive, BRKA stock is the most expensive on the market, currently trading near $430,000 a share.\nWarren Buffett decided to introduce the BRKB shares to allow investors to purchase stock directly. Big demand for Berkshire Hathaway stock forced less-moneyed players to plow cash into unit trusts or mutual funds that mirrored his company's holdings.\nBerkshire Hathaway Today\nBerkshire Hathaway operates in four main sectors.\nIts insurance group is one of its biggest cash cows. One of the most famous jewels in the crown is Geico. Other parts of this business include multinational property/casualty and life/health reinsurance company General Re and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group. The latter underwrites excess-of-loss reinsurance and quota-share coverage globally.\nInsurance operations are a big reason why Berkshire Hathaway earnings can be lumpy.\nIts Regulated Utility Business group includes Berkshire Hathaway Energy, formerly known as MidAmerican Energy. It also includes railway services arm BNSF, North America's largest freight railroad network.\nMeanwhile, the Manufacturing, Service & Retailing group includes Acme Building Brands, Fruit of the Loom and Justin Brands. The likes of Buffalo News, Business Wire, Dairy Queen and NetJets fall under the service subsector. Retailers include See's Candies, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Helzberg Diamond Shops and Star Furniture.\nFinally, the Finance & Financial Products segment includes: Hathaway Credit Corporation, transportation equipment and furniture leasing specialists XTRA and CORT, and BH Finance whose main interest is in proprietary investing strategies.\nIs Berkshire Hathaway Stock A Buy Now?\nWhile Berkshire Hathaway stock has been lagging the S&P 500 index since late 2018, it has been handily outperforming in 2021. However, Berkshire stock is now well clear of its most recent buy zone. Investors keen on the stock could add it to their watchlist, and wait for a new buying opportunity to emerge.\nWhile its Composite Rating is still not up to scratch, it has improved on this front as well. This makes it an option worth watching for investors seeking to add to their portfolio a well established stock with a diversified portfolio of businesses.\nHowever, it is worth remember that, after a late-2018 burst, Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth has been modest and uneven. While Wall Street sees solid EPS growth ahead for Berkshire in 2021 and 2022, it still remains shy of the rates sought by CAN SLIM investors.\nBottom line: Berkshire Hathaway stock is not a buy at the moment. Those interested in buying the ultimate Warren Buffett stock should add it to their watchlist, and wait to see if it forms a new base.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":182696952,"gmtCreate":1623566714676,"gmtModify":1704206362737,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182696952","repostId":"2142112788","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182875672,"gmtCreate":1623565627096,"gmtModify":1704206338678,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182875672","repostId":"1148565686","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148565686","pubTimestamp":1623514343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148565686?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-13 00:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Is The Ultimate Warren Buffett Stock, But Should You Buy It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148565686","media":"investors","summary":"Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire stock has cleared a buy zone, but is it a good buy for you now?Let's take a close look at the fundamental and technical performance of the ultimate Warren Buffett stock.Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate that owns some of America's most famous firms. It wholly owns the likes of Geico, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and ","content":"<p>Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(BRKB). Berkshire stock has cleared a buy zone, but is it a good buy for you now? Let's take a close look at the fundamental and technical performance of the ultimate Warren Buffett stock.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate that owns some of America's most famous firms. It wholly owns the likes of Geico, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and railroad operator BNSF.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is perhaps more famous for serving as an investment vehicle for Warren Buffett and his top lieutenant, Charlie Munger. Following their value investing philosophy,the company owns huge stakesin&nbsp;<b>American Express</b>(AXP),&nbsp;<b>Coca-Cola</b>(KO) and other heavy hitters.</p>\n<p>But the definition of a Warren Buffett stock has evolved in recent years.&nbsp;Warren Buffett became a big investor in airlines such as<b>Delta Air Lines</b>(DAL). But he was left to rue his decision to go against his own long-held views about that industry's lack of profitability. The move blew up in his face as airline stocks were decimated due to the global coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>Under investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, Berkshire Hathaway has been increasingly sinking money into tech. It's taken large positions in established giants like<b>Apple</b>(AAPL), as well as younger companies like Brazilian payments company<b>StoneCo</b>(STNE) and new software IPO<b>Snowflake</b>(SNOW). Berkshire also snapped up a stake in<b>Amazon.com</b>(AMZN).</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett Anoints Successor</b></p>\n<p>One of the biggest questions around the future of Berkshire Hathaway in recent years was who would take over the mantle of CEO from Buffett.</p>\n<p>The Oracle of Omahahas finally gave the answer. He said Greg Abel, who runs the noninsurance businesses, will take over in his stead.</p>\n<p>\"The directors are in agreement that if something were to happen to me tonight, it would be Greg who'd take over tomorrow morning,\" the legendary investor told CNBC.</p>\n<p>Berkshire's Vice Chairman Charlie Munger dropped a massive hint during the&nbsp;company's annual meeting in Los Angeles, mentioning that \"Greg will keep the culture.\"</p>\n<p>Abel, 58, has been a Berkshire vice chairman since 2018, and had long been viewed by analysts as a possible successor. The Canadian is chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. He has also been vice chairman of Berkshire's noninsurance operations since January 2018.</p>\n<p><b>Buffett Snaps Up Berkshire Stock</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway revealed in its Q1 earnings report that it had snapped up $6.6 billion more of its shares. It comesafter a record $27.4 billion in repurchaseslast year. This was down from the $9 billion in stock it had purchased in each of the previous two quarters however.</p>\n<p>After historically shying away from repurchases, Berkshire Hathaway stock has become one of Buffett's top purchases.&nbsp;Berkshire's aggressive share repurchases contrasts with the M&amp;A deals spun by the investor during and after the 2008 financial crash.</p>\n<p>While he has historically been reluctant to splurge on stock repurchases, he explained his change of heart in his latest annual letter to shareholders.</p>\n<p>\"The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time,\" he wrote. \"The process offers a simple way for investors to own an ever-expanding portion of exceptional businesses.\"</p>\n<p>Berkshire loosened rules for Buffett to buy back shares in 2018. With Berkshire steadfastly cautious on M&amp;A in recent years, investors have been clamoring for more repurchases.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Tweaks Portfolio</b></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett took a huge stake in<b>Verizon</b>(VZ) stock while dumping JPMorgan (JPM) stock entirely, according to thefirm's latest regulatory filing.</p>\n<p>Its new Verizon stake is massive, with Berkshire paying $8.62 billion for 147 million shares. It now accounts for 3% of the portfolio, making it the No. 6 stock by number of shares held.</p>\n<p>Buffett also opened new stakes in<b>Chevron</b>(CVX),<b>Marsh &amp; McLennan</b>(MMC) and<b>EW Scripps</b>(SSP) in Q4.</p>\n<p>Berkshire dumped entirely<b>Pfizer</b>(PFE),<b>JPMorgan Chase</b>(JPM),<b>Barrick Gold</b>(GOLD),<b>M&amp;T Bank</b>(MTB) and<b>PNC Financial</b>(PNC).</p>\n<p>The conglomerate grew stakes by 117% in<b>T-Mobile</b>(TMUS), 34% in<b>Kroger</b>(KR), 28% in<b>Merck</b>(MRK), 20% in<b>AbbVie</b>(ABBV), 11% in<b>Bristol-Myers Squibb</b>(BMY), and 1% in<b>RH</b>(RH).</p>\n<p>Buffett cut Berkshire's stake in Apple stock by 6%. It remains the No. 1 stock in his portfolio by market value and No. 2 stock by number of shares held, at 10.6% of the portfolio. He kept an Amazon stake steady.</p>\n<p>During its most recent earnings report, the firm revealed it had sold $6.45 billion in stock in Q1 and bought $2.57 billion in stock.</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett Funds Media Deal</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is a key backer in a deal disclosed Sept. 24 that will see TV station owner<b>E.W. Scripps</b>(SSP) purchase privately held cable network ION Media for $2.65 billion. The latter firm's flagship, ION Television, is a top 5-ranked U.S. general entertainment network.</p>\n<p>Warren Buffett's firm is snapping up $600 million of Scripps preferred shares to help fund the deal. Scripps stock surged on on the news.</p>\n<p>Berkshire will also receive a warrant that allows it to snap up up to 23.1 million more shares at a price of $13. This adds up to an additional investment of $300 million. Scripps' common shares currently trade at more than 21 each.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Coronavirus Exposure</b></p>\n<p>As well as its status as an investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate in its own right. It has interests in segments such as railroads, utilities and energy.</p>\n<p>Those sectors, along with other \"real economy\" companies that are Warren Buffett staples, have been hard hit by the coronavirus shutdowns and massive economic contraction. However they should benefit as the economy opens up again.</p>\n<p>Berkshire owns Geico, the No. 2 U.S. auto insurer after State Farm. Currently, states such as California are ordering insurers to give partial credits or refunds of premiums in lines such as private passenger automobile insurance.</p>\n<p>Berkshire also owns BNSF Railway Company, the largest freight railroad network in North America. Rail operators such as<b>Union Pacific</b>(UNP) and<b>CSX</b>(CSX) have seen business suffer during the pandemic. But rail operators and other transportation companies are seeing business pick up again.</p>\n<p>Other wholly owned businesses such as Dairy Queen and multilevel marketing company Pampered Chef also struggled during coronavirus restrictions, though those are easing.</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett's Big Gas Bill</b></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett has been criticized for the size of his cash pile. But last July he madehis biggest acquisition in yearswith a $10 billion deal for<b>Dominion Energy</b>'s (D) assets.</p>\n<p>Berkshire seized the chance to secure Dominion's gas pipeline network after the utility giant and<b>Duke Energy</b>(DUK) unexpectedly aborted plans to build the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway Energy will buy about 7,700 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines and 900 billion cubic feet of gas storage. The all-cash deal includes $4 billion of equity and $5.7 billion of debt. It's set to close in the fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>\"We are very proud to be adding such a great portfolio of natural gas assets to our already strong energy business,\" Buffett said in a statement.</p>\n<p>Energy has been doing well so far in 2021. For example, the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) is up almost 40% since the start of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Stock Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway stock is in a profit-taking zone after breaking out of aflat base, according toMarketSmith analysis. Theideal buy pointwas 235.09. Shares offered a follow-on buy point around 246 in late March after a test of the 10-week line, but are extended from here as well.</p>\n<p>It could go on to form a new base with an entry point of 295.18, it can continue to consolidate below this level.</p>\n<p>BRKB stock is well clear after pulling away from its50-day moving average, though the key technical benchmark is beginning to catch up. This is a positive sign for holders of the stock.</p>\n<p>Therelative strength lineof Berkshire Hathaway stock has been slippi8ng somewhat of late after a spell of progress that kicked off in mid-March. BRKB stock is outperforming in 2021. So far this year, it is up around 23%, which beats the broader S&amp;P 500's return of almost 13%.</p>\n<p>ItsIBD Composite Ratingnow sits at 69 out of 99. This is not ideal, but puts it in the top 31% of stocks tracked overall.</p>\n<p>Earnings are&nbsp; improving, with EPS accelerating for the past two quarters. However earnings have only grown by an average of 5% over the past three quarters, with coronavirus pandemic lockdowns having an impact.&nbsp;The CAN SLIM systemrecommends investors look for companies with average EPS growth of at least 25% over this time period.</p>\n<p>Wall Street is becoming more optimistic for Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth going forward. Analysts are projecting annual earnings will rise 24% 2021, before moderating to 7% growth in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Warren Buffett Recommendation</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire stock had been lagging the S&amp;P 500 index since the end of 2018. Before that, BRKB stock at best moved with the market for a decade. An investor could have bought an index fund or ETF like the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY), and generated similar or higher returns with less stock-specific risk.</p>\n<p>\"In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is owning the S&amp;P 500 index fund, Buffett himself previously said at a Berkshire annual meeting. \"If you bet on America and sustain that position for decades, you'd do far better than buying Treasury securities, or far better than following people. Perhaps with a bias, I don't believe anyone knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year.\"</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, BRKB stock has been outperforming the S&amp;P 500 so far this year. It could now finally be set for a decent period of outperformance.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Earnings Improve</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway earnings per share popped 27% in Q1, rising to $3.05. This was well clear of analyst views for EPS of $2.57. Its operating profit, which excludes some investment results, came in at $7 billion.</p>\n<p>The conglomerate's total revenue came in at $64.6 billion last quarter, which was also more than analysts expected.</p>\n<p>The firm's wheeling and dealing on the stock market also saw the firm turn in good gains, increasing approximately $4.69 billion last quarter. However the firm stresses that gains and losses in any particular quarter are \"usually meaningless.\" This fits in with Buffett's longer-term investment philosophy.</p>\n<p><b>Buffett's Cash Mountain Still Mighty</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire's cash pile grew to $145.4 billion in Q1 from $138.3 billion in Q4. It is creeping back up to record level it reached in the third quarter of last year. This has raised expectations that Buffett would make a big acquisition, but he has preferred to sit on the sidelines amid spiraling stock prices.</p>\n<p>Having such a large supply of cash protects the Warren Buffett stock during tough times. It also mean Berkshire Hathaway is able to deploy capital when desirable businesses become available for purchase.</p>\n<p>The more aggressive buying of Berkshire's own shares of late contrasts with Buffett's deals during and after the Great Recession. This indicates he believes that the latest economic downturn and recovery, so far, offer none of the bargains he has historically pounced on.</p>\n<p><b>Analyst Backs Berkshire Stock</b></p>\n<p>CFRA analyst Catherine Seifert is rating BRKB stock as a hold with a 295 price target. She pointed out the mixed nature of the firm's recent earnings report.</p>\n<p>\"Results reflected a doubling of underwriting profits and 12% higher rail/energy/utility profits, despite 13% lower in investment income,\" she said in a May 3 research note. \"We applaud the 33% rise in energy revenues amid contributions from an acquisition, but rail revenues declined fractionally and insurance premium growth of 4.3% lagged peers.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, she said the shares are currently \"fairly valued versus historical levels.\" The analyst also believes there could be changes afoot once he firm's legendary CEO steps down.</p>\n<p>\"We are disappointed climate change and diversity initiatives failed to be approved at the annual meeting, and think this increases the likelihood of activism in a post-Buffet era,\" she said.</p>\n<p><b>Difference Between BRKA Stock And BRKB Stock</b></p>\n<p>The most obvious difference between Berkshire Hathaway's A class and B class shares is the price. While — at over 200 a share — BRKB stock may be considered relatively expensive, BRKA stock is the most expensive on the market, currently trading near $430,000 a share.</p>\n<p>Warren Buffett decided to introduce the BRKB shares to allow investors to purchase stock directly. Big demand for Berkshire Hathaway stock forced less-moneyed players to plow cash into unit trusts or mutual funds that mirrored his company's holdings.</p>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway Today</b></p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway operates in four main sectors.</p>\n<p>Its insurance group is one of its biggest cash cows. One of the most famous jewels in the crown is Geico. Other parts of this business include multinational property/casualty and life/health reinsurance company General Re and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group. The latter underwrites excess-of-loss reinsurance and quota-share coverage globally.</p>\n<p>Insurance operations are a big reason why Berkshire Hathaway earnings can be lumpy.</p>\n<p>Its Regulated Utility Business group includes Berkshire Hathaway Energy, formerly known as MidAmerican Energy. It also includes railway services arm BNSF, North America's largest freight railroad network.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Manufacturing, Service &amp; Retailing group includes Acme Building Brands, Fruit of the Loom and Justin Brands. The likes of Buffalo News, Business Wire, Dairy Queen and NetJets fall under the service subsector. Retailers include See's Candies, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Helzberg Diamond Shops and Star Furniture.</p>\n<p>Finally, the Finance &amp; Financial Products segment includes: Hathaway Credit Corporation, transportation equipment and furniture leasing specialists XTRA and CORT, and BH Finance whose main interest is in proprietary investing strategies.</p>\n<p><b>Is Berkshire Hathaway Stock A Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p>While Berkshire Hathaway stock has been lagging the S&amp;P 500 index since late 2018, it has been handily outperforming in 2021. However, Berkshire stock is now well clear of its most recent buy zone. Investors keen on the stock could add it to their watchlist, and wait for a new buying opportunity to emerge.</p>\n<p>While its Composite Rating is still not up to scratch, it has improved on this front as well. This makes it an option worth watching for investors seeking to add to their portfolio a well established stock with a diversified portfolio of businesses.</p>\n<p>However, it is worth remember that, after a late-2018 burst, Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth has been modest and uneven. While Wall Street sees solid EPS growth ahead for Berkshire in 2021 and 2022, it still remains shy of the rates sought by CAN SLIM investors.</p>\n<p>Bottom line: Berkshire Hathaway stock is not a buy at the moment. Those interested in buying the ultimate Warren Buffett stock should add it to their watchlist, and wait to see if it forms a new base.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Is The Ultimate Warren Buffett Stock, But Should You Buy It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Is The Ultimate Warren Buffett Stock, But Should You Buy It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 00:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/research/berkshire-hathaway-stock-buy-now-warren-buffett-stock/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,Berkshire Hathaway(BRKB). Berkshire stock has cleared a buy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/research/berkshire-hathaway-stock-buy-now-warren-buffett-stock/?src=A00220\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/research/berkshire-hathaway-stock-buy-now-warren-buffett-stock/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148565686","content_text":"Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time. One way to share in his success is to invest in his firm,Berkshire Hathaway(BRKB). Berkshire stock has cleared a buy zone, but is it a good buy for you now? Let's take a close look at the fundamental and technical performance of the ultimate Warren Buffett stock.\nBerkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate that owns some of America's most famous firms. It wholly owns the likes of Geico, Duracell, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and railroad operator BNSF.\nBerkshire Hathaway is perhaps more famous for serving as an investment vehicle for Warren Buffett and his top lieutenant, Charlie Munger. Following their value investing philosophy,the company owns huge stakesin American Express(AXP), Coca-Cola(KO) and other heavy hitters.\nBut the definition of a Warren Buffett stock has evolved in recent years. Warren Buffett became a big investor in airlines such asDelta Air Lines(DAL). But he was left to rue his decision to go against his own long-held views about that industry's lack of profitability. The move blew up in his face as airline stocks were decimated due to the global coronavirus pandemic.\nUnder investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, Berkshire Hathaway has been increasingly sinking money into tech. It's taken large positions in established giants likeApple(AAPL), as well as younger companies like Brazilian payments companyStoneCo(STNE) and new software IPOSnowflake(SNOW). Berkshire also snapped up a stake inAmazon.com(AMZN).\nWarren Buffett Anoints Successor\nOne of the biggest questions around the future of Berkshire Hathaway in recent years was who would take over the mantle of CEO from Buffett.\nThe Oracle of Omahahas finally gave the answer. He said Greg Abel, who runs the noninsurance businesses, will take over in his stead.\n\"The directors are in agreement that if something were to happen to me tonight, it would be Greg who'd take over tomorrow morning,\" the legendary investor told CNBC.\nBerkshire's Vice Chairman Charlie Munger dropped a massive hint during the company's annual meeting in Los Angeles, mentioning that \"Greg will keep the culture.\"\nAbel, 58, has been a Berkshire vice chairman since 2018, and had long been viewed by analysts as a possible successor. The Canadian is chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. He has also been vice chairman of Berkshire's noninsurance operations since January 2018.\nBuffett Snaps Up Berkshire Stock\nBerkshire Hathaway revealed in its Q1 earnings report that it had snapped up $6.6 billion more of its shares. It comesafter a record $27.4 billion in repurchaseslast year. This was down from the $9 billion in stock it had purchased in each of the previous two quarters however.\nAfter historically shying away from repurchases, Berkshire Hathaway stock has become one of Buffett's top purchases. Berkshire's aggressive share repurchases contrasts with the M&A deals spun by the investor during and after the 2008 financial crash.\nWhile he has historically been reluctant to splurge on stock repurchases, he explained his change of heart in his latest annual letter to shareholders.\n\"The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time,\" he wrote. \"The process offers a simple way for investors to own an ever-expanding portion of exceptional businesses.\"\nBerkshire loosened rules for Buffett to buy back shares in 2018. With Berkshire steadfastly cautious on M&A in recent years, investors have been clamoring for more repurchases.\nBerkshire Hathaway Tweaks Portfolio\nWarren Buffett took a huge stake inVerizon(VZ) stock while dumping JPMorgan (JPM) stock entirely, according to thefirm's latest regulatory filing.\nIts new Verizon stake is massive, with Berkshire paying $8.62 billion for 147 million shares. It now accounts for 3% of the portfolio, making it the No. 6 stock by number of shares held.\nBuffett also opened new stakes inChevron(CVX),Marsh & McLennan(MMC) andEW Scripps(SSP) in Q4.\nBerkshire dumped entirelyPfizer(PFE),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),Barrick Gold(GOLD),M&T Bank(MTB) andPNC Financial(PNC).\nThe conglomerate grew stakes by 117% inT-Mobile(TMUS), 34% inKroger(KR), 28% inMerck(MRK), 20% inAbbVie(ABBV), 11% inBristol-Myers Squibb(BMY), and 1% inRH(RH).\nBuffett cut Berkshire's stake in Apple stock by 6%. It remains the No. 1 stock in his portfolio by market value and No. 2 stock by number of shares held, at 10.6% of the portfolio. He kept an Amazon stake steady.\nDuring its most recent earnings report, the firm revealed it had sold $6.45 billion in stock in Q1 and bought $2.57 billion in stock.\nWarren Buffett Funds Media Deal\nBerkshire Hathaway is a key backer in a deal disclosed Sept. 24 that will see TV station ownerE.W. Scripps(SSP) purchase privately held cable network ION Media for $2.65 billion. The latter firm's flagship, ION Television, is a top 5-ranked U.S. general entertainment network.\nWarren Buffett's firm is snapping up $600 million of Scripps preferred shares to help fund the deal. Scripps stock surged on on the news.\nBerkshire will also receive a warrant that allows it to snap up up to 23.1 million more shares at a price of $13. This adds up to an additional investment of $300 million. Scripps' common shares currently trade at more than 21 each.\nBerkshire Hathaway Coronavirus Exposure\nAs well as its status as an investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate in its own right. It has interests in segments such as railroads, utilities and energy.\nThose sectors, along with other \"real economy\" companies that are Warren Buffett staples, have been hard hit by the coronavirus shutdowns and massive economic contraction. However they should benefit as the economy opens up again.\nBerkshire owns Geico, the No. 2 U.S. auto insurer after State Farm. Currently, states such as California are ordering insurers to give partial credits or refunds of premiums in lines such as private passenger automobile insurance.\nBerkshire also owns BNSF Railway Company, the largest freight railroad network in North America. Rail operators such asUnion Pacific(UNP) andCSX(CSX) have seen business suffer during the pandemic. But rail operators and other transportation companies are seeing business pick up again.\nOther wholly owned businesses such as Dairy Queen and multilevel marketing company Pampered Chef also struggled during coronavirus restrictions, though those are easing.\nWarren Buffett's Big Gas Bill\nWarren Buffett has been criticized for the size of his cash pile. But last July he madehis biggest acquisition in yearswith a $10 billion deal forDominion Energy's (D) assets.\nBerkshire seized the chance to secure Dominion's gas pipeline network after the utility giant andDuke Energy(DUK) unexpectedly aborted plans to build the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.\nBerkshire Hathaway Energy will buy about 7,700 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines and 900 billion cubic feet of gas storage. The all-cash deal includes $4 billion of equity and $5.7 billion of debt. It's set to close in the fourth quarter.\n\"We are very proud to be adding such a great portfolio of natural gas assets to our already strong energy business,\" Buffett said in a statement.\nEnergy has been doing well so far in 2021. For example, the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) is up almost 40% since the start of the year.\nBerkshire Hathaway Stock Technical Analysis\nBerkshire Hathaway stock is in a profit-taking zone after breaking out of aflat base, according toMarketSmith analysis. Theideal buy pointwas 235.09. Shares offered a follow-on buy point around 246 in late March after a test of the 10-week line, but are extended from here as well.\nIt could go on to form a new base with an entry point of 295.18, it can continue to consolidate below this level.\nBRKB stock is well clear after pulling away from its50-day moving average, though the key technical benchmark is beginning to catch up. This is a positive sign for holders of the stock.\nTherelative strength lineof Berkshire Hathaway stock has been slippi8ng somewhat of late after a spell of progress that kicked off in mid-March. BRKB stock is outperforming in 2021. So far this year, it is up around 23%, which beats the broader S&P 500's return of almost 13%.\nItsIBD Composite Ratingnow sits at 69 out of 99. This is not ideal, but puts it in the top 31% of stocks tracked overall.\nEarnings are  improving, with EPS accelerating for the past two quarters. However earnings have only grown by an average of 5% over the past three quarters, with coronavirus pandemic lockdowns having an impact. The CAN SLIM systemrecommends investors look for companies with average EPS growth of at least 25% over this time period.\nWall Street is becoming more optimistic for Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth going forward. Analysts are projecting annual earnings will rise 24% 2021, before moderating to 7% growth in 2022.\nWarren Buffett Recommendation\nBerkshire stock had been lagging the S&P 500 index since the end of 2018. Before that, BRKB stock at best moved with the market for a decade. An investor could have bought an index fund or ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and generated similar or higher returns with less stock-specific risk.\n\"In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is owning the S&P 500 index fund, Buffett himself previously said at a Berkshire annual meeting. \"If you bet on America and sustain that position for decades, you'd do far better than buying Treasury securities, or far better than following people. Perhaps with a bias, I don't believe anyone knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year.\"\nNevertheless, BRKB stock has been outperforming the S&P 500 so far this year. It could now finally be set for a decent period of outperformance.\nBerkshire Hathaway Earnings Improve\nBerkshire Hathaway earnings per share popped 27% in Q1, rising to $3.05. This was well clear of analyst views for EPS of $2.57. Its operating profit, which excludes some investment results, came in at $7 billion.\nThe conglomerate's total revenue came in at $64.6 billion last quarter, which was also more than analysts expected.\nThe firm's wheeling and dealing on the stock market also saw the firm turn in good gains, increasing approximately $4.69 billion last quarter. However the firm stresses that gains and losses in any particular quarter are \"usually meaningless.\" This fits in with Buffett's longer-term investment philosophy.\nBuffett's Cash Mountain Still Mighty\nBerkshire's cash pile grew to $145.4 billion in Q1 from $138.3 billion in Q4. It is creeping back up to record level it reached in the third quarter of last year. This has raised expectations that Buffett would make a big acquisition, but he has preferred to sit on the sidelines amid spiraling stock prices.\nHaving such a large supply of cash protects the Warren Buffett stock during tough times. It also mean Berkshire Hathaway is able to deploy capital when desirable businesses become available for purchase.\nThe more aggressive buying of Berkshire's own shares of late contrasts with Buffett's deals during and after the Great Recession. This indicates he believes that the latest economic downturn and recovery, so far, offer none of the bargains he has historically pounced on.\nAnalyst Backs Berkshire Stock\nCFRA analyst Catherine Seifert is rating BRKB stock as a hold with a 295 price target. She pointed out the mixed nature of the firm's recent earnings report.\n\"Results reflected a doubling of underwriting profits and 12% higher rail/energy/utility profits, despite 13% lower in investment income,\" she said in a May 3 research note. \"We applaud the 33% rise in energy revenues amid contributions from an acquisition, but rail revenues declined fractionally and insurance premium growth of 4.3% lagged peers.\nNevertheless, she said the shares are currently \"fairly valued versus historical levels.\" The analyst also believes there could be changes afoot once he firm's legendary CEO steps down.\n\"We are disappointed climate change and diversity initiatives failed to be approved at the annual meeting, and think this increases the likelihood of activism in a post-Buffet era,\" she said.\nDifference Between BRKA Stock And BRKB Stock\nThe most obvious difference between Berkshire Hathaway's A class and B class shares is the price. While — at over 200 a share — BRKB stock may be considered relatively expensive, BRKA stock is the most expensive on the market, currently trading near $430,000 a share.\nWarren Buffett decided to introduce the BRKB shares to allow investors to purchase stock directly. Big demand for Berkshire Hathaway stock forced less-moneyed players to plow cash into unit trusts or mutual funds that mirrored his company's holdings.\nBerkshire Hathaway Today\nBerkshire Hathaway operates in four main sectors.\nIts insurance group is one of its biggest cash cows. One of the most famous jewels in the crown is Geico. Other parts of this business include multinational property/casualty and life/health reinsurance company General Re and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group. The latter underwrites excess-of-loss reinsurance and quota-share coverage globally.\nInsurance operations are a big reason why Berkshire Hathaway earnings can be lumpy.\nIts Regulated Utility Business group includes Berkshire Hathaway Energy, formerly known as MidAmerican Energy. It also includes railway services arm BNSF, North America's largest freight railroad network.\nMeanwhile, the Manufacturing, Service & Retailing group includes Acme Building Brands, Fruit of the Loom and Justin Brands. The likes of Buffalo News, Business Wire, Dairy Queen and NetJets fall under the service subsector. Retailers include See's Candies, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Helzberg Diamond Shops and Star Furniture.\nFinally, the Finance & Financial Products segment includes: Hathaway Credit Corporation, transportation equipment and furniture leasing specialists XTRA and CORT, and BH Finance whose main interest is in proprietary investing strategies.\nIs Berkshire Hathaway Stock A Buy Now?\nWhile Berkshire Hathaway stock has been lagging the S&P 500 index since late 2018, it has been handily outperforming in 2021. However, Berkshire stock is now well clear of its most recent buy zone. Investors keen on the stock could add it to their watchlist, and wait for a new buying opportunity to emerge.\nWhile its Composite Rating is still not up to scratch, it has improved on this front as well. This makes it an option worth watching for investors seeking to add to their portfolio a well established stock with a diversified portfolio of businesses.\nHowever, it is worth remember that, after a late-2018 burst, Berkshire Hathaway earnings growth has been modest and uneven. While Wall Street sees solid EPS growth ahead for Berkshire in 2021 and 2022, it still remains shy of the rates sought by CAN SLIM investors.\nBottom line: Berkshire Hathaway stock is not a buy at the moment. Those interested in buying the ultimate Warren Buffett stock should add it to their watchlist, and wait to see if it forms a new base.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185629577,"gmtCreate":1623646887899,"gmtModify":1704207772900,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185629577","repostId":"1146011836","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185661866,"gmtCreate":1623646572355,"gmtModify":1704207761662,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185661866","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127823989","pubTimestamp":1623253090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127823989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127823989","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.Amazonis one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM throug","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon maintains high advertising potential.</li>\n <li>The recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.</li>\n <li>The company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.</p>\n<p>Amazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.</p>\n<p>The retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.</p>\n<p>We still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.</p>\n<p><b>Product</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.</p>\n<p>In its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.</p>\n<p>This first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d99378da746d0c3e0141d21e45729e0d\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.</p>\n<p>According toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Prime</b></p>\n<p>We all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.</p>\n<p>A chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.</p>\n<p>Amazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ee6071f10355c56905089335e248a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Starting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.</p>\n<p>2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.</p>\n<p>In 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.</p>\n<p>In 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.</p>\n<p>In 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.</p>\n<p>In 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.</p>\n<p>In 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.</p>\n<p>In 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.</p>\n<p>Finally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.</p>\n<p>The evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.</p>\n<p>Prime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98abbd226ea68e7b6dd19537677a9888\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Emarketer, Statista</p>\n<p>Given the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.</p>\n<p>Below is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/250693f17a1239d59514520d8656fecb\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Prices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).</p>\n<p>The first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.</p>\n<p>Penetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.</p>\n<p>The Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.</p>\n<p>The maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5636145e9a1d04a4f1d4f1643c0550a1\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.</p>\n<p>There are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.</p>\n<p>Currently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.</p>\n<p>Market penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa586d6b9e788420999aa48c50811040\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.</p>\n<p><b>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA)</b></p>\n<p>More than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.</p>\n<p>Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.</p>\n<p>FBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1165bbedf3c99919df3b86f97386eb31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b35107ea150c8462f41cf6ff2f1975\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual report, FactSet estimates</p>\n<p>With the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d093110e0653de7cd4b486dbcf1543f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.</p>\n<p>For orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Small classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.</li>\n <li>Large sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.</li>\n <li>Large unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Small and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.</p>\n<p>A key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.</p>\n<p>Intuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.</p>\n<p>2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.</p>\n<p>This has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab81f81d8d08e98fa4819e90b6a553e1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb5e8f0ce6c11a4e1a96e2ab8002586\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Growth in line with all of the above.</p>\n<p>Amazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.</p>\n<p>In the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eeec3e1927a51a580d7007e6caba3c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Chaddick Institute</p>\n<p>In Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.</p>\n<p>The current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.</p>\n<p>And all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.</p>\n<p>Following the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.</p>\n<p>Is there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a8276c53a9261ed6a84a8607ce87e9\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Between them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.</p>\n<p>Considering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.</p>\n<p>We can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.</p>\n<p><b>AWS</b></p>\n<p>We believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.</p>\n<p>There should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931481c0a035bcced96f4f401235488\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a64e7975829481aa0bedba683c33fa\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.</p>\n<p>Amazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.</p>\n<p>Backlog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.</p>\n<p>The backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e0033a5094a6f45b6cf02363014fcd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Annual Report &amp; Morgan Stanley Estimates</p>\n<p>This graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.</p>\n<p><b>Supermarket</b></p>\n<p>The supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.</p>\n<p>The opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.</p>\n<p>Amazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)</p>\n<p>On the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.</p>\n<p>Therefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.</p>\n<p>Having the ability to do click &amp; collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.</p>\n<p>The current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.</p>\n<p>Reviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.</p>\n<p>In a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.</p>\n<p>On the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.</p>\n<p>To get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177141503cc09a782b0fc3ec7df8cd63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.</p>\n<p>In addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f30cc5515047623531828738fa6180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Especially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Ads</b></p>\n<p>This is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1174f49304a8d987eeffaabd69393d14\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.</p>\n<p>Considering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.</p>\n<p>Advertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af8cc7425a991f2e6d6e94f71d29fbd\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.</p>\n<p>It is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18aa88ac767b673ccddb587eb8bc7d01\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Amazon Healthcare</b></p>\n<p>Although you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.</p>\n<p>Amazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.</p>\n<p>With Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Make an appointment</li>\n <li>In-person follow-up care (select states only)</li>\n <li>Medical examinations</li>\n <li>24/7 service team, 365 days a year.</li>\n <li>Recipes delivered to your home.</li>\n <li>Vaccines.</li>\n <li>Virtual consultation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Within the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.</p>\n<p>Amazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.</p>\n<p>Amazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.</p>\n<p>Concerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.</p>\n<p>The combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.</p>\n<p>It is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>In 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.</li>\n <li>In 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.</li>\n <li>Late 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.</li>\n <li>Reported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.</li>\n <li>September 2019 launches Amazon Care.</li>\n <li>B2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.</li>\n <li>March 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.</li>\n <li>Launch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Selling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:</p>\n<p>The final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.</p>\n<p>For any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).</p>\n<p>The Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.</p>\n<p>An important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.</p>\n<p>There are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Pharmacy:</b>allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:</b>part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Amazon Prime:</b>Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Understanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Retail sale of medicines</li>\n <li>B2B sales of medical devices</li>\n <li>Online medical care.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Gaming and Twitch</b></p>\n<p>Amazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>In 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.</li>\n <li>Also in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.</li>\n <li>In 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.</li>\n <li>In 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"</li>\n <li>2018 acquires GameSparks.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.</p>\n<p>The future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.</p>\n<p>In the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.</p>\n<p>Distribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.</p>\n<p>The new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.</p>\n<p><b>Music and Video</b></p>\n<p>The $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.</p>\n<p>Through the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).</p>\n<p>MGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.</p>\n<p>With 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.</p>\n<p>MGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.</p>\n<p>We do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.</p>\n<p>As for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&amp;A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.</p>\n<p>When it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?</p>\n<p>In the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.</p>\n<p><b>Venture Capital</b></p>\n<p>Amazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.</p>\n<p>The Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).</p>\n<p>It has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Covering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.</li>\n <li>Bezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.</li>\n <li>Regulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.</li>\n <li>A slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.</li>\n <li>That all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Waymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.</p>\n<p>Google with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495a0f59e25265e21fd12b548f93b3f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\">Amazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.</p>\n<p>In the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b304d1db1ca34a56deecd34a2e89a2c\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"344\"><b>Working Capital</b></p>\n<p>To understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.</p>\n<p>As margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b00f1639fd6bc917998f038f3ff60ec\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.</p>\n<p>Just by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.</p>\n<p>It currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d462cfa442b191e5e27213180f5ad9b\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"336\">If we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8546c6d09613082ad5d6e1fdef607bea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\">Under these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0e31590998b2af7f9f7209db841f59\" tg-width=\"251\" tg-height=\"410\">We would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Amazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.</p>\n<p>It is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: A No-Brainer For The Next 10 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433845-amazon-stock-amzn-no-brainer-for-the-next-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127823989","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon maintains high advertising potential.\nThe recent approval of Amazon Pharmacy provides a huge TAM.\nThe company has an interesting future operating leverage due to high capex deployed in logistics.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is one of the best-known companies in the world, it seems difficult to discover something new in it but the reality is that there is a lot to discover. After performing this in-depth analysis of Amazon, I have realized that most segments are in their early stages. The current valuation is very attractive considering that they are just scratching the surface of the potential of these divisions.\nAmazon Healthcare has a huge TAM through Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon Care (telemedicine). Both divisions are newly approved, so as of today, they contribute virtually nothing to Amazon's bottom line.\nThe retail part has a long way to go, with a lot of room for growth with its omnichannel for supermarkets, increases in ARPU, FBA.\nOn the other hand, digital advertising is eating the world, and Amazon has recently been getting into it (since 2015). Part of Amazon's advertising five years ago was generating hardly any profit, now it is doubling revenues every two years and this has just begun. Amazon is the most powerful product marketplace globally, so it makes perfect sense that the wild growth in advertising continues to grow at high rates.\nWe still have the optionality in gaming, the growth in prime ARPUs, the Audio and Video division, in short, numerous segments that have not yet started to contribute sales and Amazon is currently trading at about 35x normalized FCF, expensive? In our opinion considerably cheaper than the multiples at which the market is trading.\nProduct\nAmazon is a company that has always had a long-term focus. This means that since its inception, it has renounced short-term profitability to become one of the most important companies in the world in the long term. There is no doubt that it has achieved this goal and we are right at the moment where Amazon is beginning to reap what has been sown for so many years.\nIn its early days, Amazon focused on the user experience when shopping online. Amazon offered a simple, accessible and universal way to buy products to guarantee the highest number of reviews and arrive in record time. In addition, acquiring a product on Amazon carries the guarantee of delivery of the same; this means that if you have any kind of problem with the reception of the product, Amazon solves it in record time.\nThis first phase has been very successful and has been the foundation of Amazon 2.0, which has been integrating more and more services and improving its original product: e-commerce. This image summarizes very well the evolution of Amazon from a Prime 1.0 to a Prime with a much higher added value.\nThanks to this user experience created by Amazon, it has been one of the main contributors (or rather the main contributor) to the explosive evolution of e-commerce, making its penetration increasingly higher and its growth very high.\nAccording toStatistadata, e-commerce penetration worldwide is 50.8% in 2021 and is expected to reach 63.1% in 2025. Average spending per person exceeds $700 per year. Between 2020 and 2025, e-commerce revenues are expected to grow by 50%, so far from being a mature market, it is still growing strongly.\nAmazon Prime\nWe all know what this service entails, so I am not going to explain it at length. More and more new services are being integrated into Amazon Prime, making it one of the must-have subscriptions for users.\nA chronological summary of Amazon's evolution in the US (its most mature market) is essential to understand the evolution of prices and value-added over time.\nAmazonlaunches Prime subscription in the US in 2005for $79 per year. In 2006, Amazon moved forward and launched Fulfilled by Amazon. This service allows sellers to have a store on Amazon and ship their products for a fee. These products then become eligible for Amazon Prime, increasing the assortment and selection available to customers.\nStarting in 2011, Amazon included Prime Video in subscriptions, which meant 5,000 movies and series for every subscriber.\n2014 was a great year for Prime, not only because there were many new services added, but also because there was the first price increase, Amazon raises from $79 to $99 the subscription in the U.S. This same year Amazon Prime Pantry is launched, offering customers the ability to buy essential supermarket products (toilet paper, drinks, creams) for a meager fee and regularly. Also in 2014, Amazon Music was launched with the Prime subscription, giving access to a catalog of 60M songs, on a par with the best streaming services. Amazon photos are also launched, a service that offers high-resolution photo storage with Amazon's own subscription. Finally, Amazon launches; Amazon Now, a supermarket service in which you receive your products in 2 hours (or one in certain areas) with free shipping cost from $ 50.\nIn 2015 Amazon Prime Day was created to celebrate the 20th anniversary, in which 24 hours offers to appear to be the day of Amazon's biggest sale since its launch.\nIn 2016, same-day delivery to 27 metropolitan areas was introduced. Prime also joins Prime, Prime Reading, which offered more than 1,000 books and magazines free of charge.\nIn 2017, an agreement was formed with Chase to create a credit card that offers Prime subscribers at no added cost a 5% cash back at Amazon or Whole Foods for purchases made. Prime Wardrobe is also launched in 2017, a service that allows you to try on clothes, jewelry or similar in a period of 7 days before having to pay. That same year Amazon Key is launched, a smart lock that allows opening the home from the Smartphone to trusted people (seeing through an integrated camera), open the door from your own Smartphone or with a personal code. In addition to this, it allows Prime members to receive Amazon packages in their garage, house, without needing a key, simply through the APP.\nIn 2017, the acquisition of Whole Foods was made, which is integrated into Amazon with discounts, free shipping or cashback when paying by card.\nIn 2018 comes a second price increase from $99 to the current $119, an increase of $40 since its launch in 2005.\nIn 2019, Amazon Fresh launched Prime subscribers, offering free in select cities fresh grocery delivery service.\nFinally, in 2020 Amazon Prime Gaming is launched, a service built into the Prime subscription that provides free games, exclusive gaming content and a free Twitch subscription.\nThe evolution of Prime has been impressive, incorporating new services year after year to make Amazon's subscription indispensable in our lives. Seeing the evolution in subscribers, it seems evident that it has achieved its purpose.\nPrime's evolution has taken us to200M subscribers in 2020globally of which 153M are from the US.\nSource: Emarketer, Statista\nGiven the penetration, Prime's growth has slowed down in recent years, although users are becoming more and more accustomed to the service and it is becoming one of the essential subscriptions. This in our opinion, will lead to pricing power, something we have already seen in the United States, where the price for the subscription is substantially higher than the international subscription.\nBelow is a comparison of subscription costs in different countries:\nPrices have risen compared to2018(these are as of year-end 2020). It is expected that prices will continue to rise gradually to generate higher earnings per user (ARPU).\nThe first thing we notice is that the disparity between countries is high. In my opinion, where there is more room for prices to converge is in Europe, as Prime becomes more mature and incorporates higher quality content (as it has done in the US). This table shows that there is still a long way to go in terms of ARPU. Even in the US the price of an Amazon Prime subscription, taking into account everything included (music, video, access to Pharmacy, free shipping, storage), is well below other comparable subscriptions.\nPenetration in the United States is at its highest, 77% of people who buy on Amazon are Prime users. In 2020 this percentage was 67% so we have substantial growth; in fact it is one of the highest growth rates in the last decade.\nThe Prime user is more profitable since he/she tends to spend 2-3 times more per month than a non-Prime user. In e-commerce, Amazon is the clear dominator with amarket sharein the United States of more than 50%. Being the clear dominator in a market thatwill grow at double digitsfor the next 5 years (probably also for the next 10 years) is undoubtedly very interesting. Another important point is that retail is a huge market where Amazon is just scratching the surface but has certainly positioned itself to capture more and more market share as the years go by. Amazon has only9% ofUS retail sales, while Walmart has 9.5%. To give you a sense of Amazon's traction, in 2019 it only had 6.8%. Although it is clear that COVID has helped it gain traction, over the years it has always been gaining more market share. Amazon knows this and is substantially increasing fulfillment CAPEX.\nThe maturity of the Prime subscriber is also something important. As the years go by the Prime subscriber tends to consume more, so we could say that even a Prime subscriber has a rump-up period as we can see in this graph:\nIn certain markets such as India, where Amazon has focused a lot of attention and investment, Prime membership growth has been exceptional. According to the head of Prime in the country, Prime membership has doubled between 4Q17 and 2Q19. While some of that growth may have been driven by Amazon's material investment in local digital content and Prime rate incentives, we believe many of these members will become more engaged retail customers as their financial situation improves over time.\nThere are doubts about whether the momentum resulting from COVID in e-commerce will slow down with the reopening of e-commerce. Data from the first quarter of 2021 (with a reasonable reopening) shows that far from slowing down, growth has even accelerated above pre-COVID levels. This makes sense as certain users are reluctant to shop online and have been relatively forced during the quarantine. Having made purchases online has allowed them to lose that fear and become e-commerce users that would have taken longer to become so had it not been for COVID.\nCurrently, 66% of GMVs (Gross Merchandise Value or total amount transacted in resales without discounts) come from the United States, the most mature market. In the future, the projection is that the mix of GMVs between US and Non-US will converge to 50% since it is in the rest of the markets where growth is currently highest.\nMarket penetration is gradual and to get an idea of how it is evolving; we must look at the most mature market: the United States.\nCurrently, 67% of U.S. households with internet have a Prime subscription.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA)\nMore than half of the units purchased on Amazon's global marketplaces are sold by third-party merchants: sellers large and small who benefit from having access to Amazon's millions of customers. Your Seller Care business enables you to offer a wide selection of products by engaging these sellers and helping them manage their business on the platform.\nFulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a program that allows sellers to ship their inventory to Amazon's distribution centers, where they create, pack and ship orders for them, as well as handle customer service and returns for them. Their products become part of the Prime program, so they reach an even larger audience, and the seller spends fewer resources on inventory management and shipping.\nFBA started in 2005 with just a handful of vendors. Teams of business and technical professionals build all the systems that enable it, including tools that provide real-time data and reports and allow companies to manage their inventories remotely and from any device.\nThe fulfillment part benefits from operational leverage, managing to contain unit costs and generating a higher and higher free cash flow. To understand the service in greater depth, we can look at Amazon's FBA service fees to third parties, which occupy almost 50% of the GMVs.\nAmazon has been investing in its fulfillment network for many years, reinforcing its increasingly evident MOAT regarding logistics capacity and customer experience. So high has been the deployment of Capex that today it even rivals companies whose core business is precisely that:\nSource: Annual report, FactSet estimates\nWith the scale that Amazon has acquired, it would not be unreasonable to become a more efficient logistics platform than even pure competitors.\nThe graph shows how the simplest route an order can take is directly from the seller to the buyer through a third-party service, where Amazon never actually touches the product, only puts the Marketplace.\nFor orders that do go through Amazon's network, the company groups inventory into three different categories:\n\nSmall classifiable: consumer items that make up the majority of the business. These are everyday items such as books, video games, and small-weight items.\nLarge sortable: Items with a higher weight may require more manual systems due to their size.\nLarge unsortable: Items that due to their size or weight, are handled with less automation, often in different locations and require more specialization for their preparation, such as specific packaging. Most of these shipments are delivered by third parties, mostly XPO.\n\nSmall and large collection and packaging facilities are usually located in the same building but separate divisions.\nA key defining characteristic of small and large sortable items is that they can fit into a box placed on a conveyor belt for automatic sorting.\nIntuitively, small sortable items are also where the company has implemented the most automation, including robotic picking functionality.\n2013 was a turning point for FBA. We are talking about the 1,050 fulfillment network points today; only 58 were open before 2014, or 5%. Before 2014 there were no airports; there was hardly any infrastructure compared to today. 2020 is once again a turning point; 45% of fulfillment centers have been or will be built after 2020.\nThis has undoubtedly been reflected in the 2020 CAPEX, which has risen considerably compared to previous years, from 5% to 9%. Excluding the increase in 2020 CAPEX, annualized growth since 2013 is 37%, above sales growth. Not all of this growth is due to fulfillment. Still, reading the letters from management, it is clear that a large part of this growth comes from this division, saying that the costs associated with \"last mile delivery\" had increased substantially.\nThis Capex is reflected in the evolution of the square meters of fulfillment:\nGrowth in line with all of the above.\nAmazon is also increasing its aircraft fleet, which started in 2016 following the agreement with ATSG and Atlas Air to lease 40 aircraft (20+20). Currently, the fleet of aircraft under lease is 82 plus 11 owned aircraft, a total of 93, so it has more than doubled the fleet in less than 5 years. These movements make clear Amazon's intentions to boost the air service. If it continues simultaneously, we would have about 200 aircraft in 2016 between leasing and ownership.\nIn the following image, we can see Amazon's air gateway network, with its usual spans. The network represents a key piece of the company's proprietary distribution network that has not been replicated by any other retailer and is a key function that allows Amazon to operate without the networks of third-party carriers.\nSource: Chaddick Institute\nIn Europe, it also has a network in the main capitals: Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, Milan, Rome, Cologne and Leipzig.\nThe current gap in the fleet is significant concerning UPS and FedEx, but Capex is deploying Amazon would not be surprised to have a similar fleet by 2030.\nAnd all this for what? Considering how much Amazon is spending on logistics, it's clear it has a purpose. FBA sales went from $1b in 2011 to $40b in 2020, a significant jump. Rumors indicate that Amazon would like to start competing with UPS and FedEx in offering their services not only for its Marketplace but also for third parties. This may be indicative of the program launched in 2017 \"Seller Flex) which is a variant of the FBA program but in-house. This means that you can leverage Amazon's logistics tools without having to deposit inventory in Amazon's fulfillment centers. This is already a very similar service to that provided by pure shipping players.\nFollowing the launch of FBA Onsite, Amazon began internal testing of Amazon Shipping, a third-party shipping service that complemented FBA onsite. Early on reports suggested that Amazon would be able to undercut third-party carriers by leveraging the capacity it already used for its own deliveries and eliminating added costs. After more than two years, Amazon Shipping remains an internal trial put on hold by the arrival of COVID, as Amazon itself needed all of its logistics capacity for internal use.\nIs there really an opportunity here? Let's look at the sales and operating profit of the main players: UPS and FedEx.\nBetween them they generate 40% of Amazon's sales and 53% of operating profit. Obviously, Amazon will not capture all the business from both, but it gives us an idea that it is a large market that can provide incremental sales for Amazon.\nConsidering all the opportunities on the table: Pharmacy, Grocery, Gaming, Advertising) Amazon Shipping will likely be delayed for a while, not one of the most immediate priorities. The deployed Capex itself serves for internal use with much more intense value chain control.\nWe can really see the benefits of that CAPEX for fulfillment in the gross margin. The cost of sales is associated with Amazon's shipping costs, both in-house and through third parties. As in-house shipping has been gaining scale through CAPEX deployment, the gross margin has been increasing, and this is entirely normal given that this segment is pure volume. This means that a company that does not move Amazon's volume will not be compensated for the Capex deployed by Amazon. Still, on the other hand, a company like Amazon that increases the number of shipments in double digits year after year shows that the higher the volume, the higher the cost savings per shipment that the CAPEX deployed will compensate. This is a key point, as Amazon has a greater weight in own shipping and less in third parties, it will acquire a higher gross margin because the cost of own shipping is significantly lower than using a third party such as UPS or FedEx.\nAWS\nWe believe that AWS will continue to be the dominant player in IaaS/PaaS as it captures most of the future growth in the industry due to its huge customer base.\nThere should be plenty of growth opportunities for all three vendors. Gartner's forecast for IaaS and PaaS implies a 25% revenue CAGR between 2020 and 2023 and a market of nearly $200 billion by 2023.\nAs for margins, they have danced between 20-30% despite aggressive pricing plans with a total of 20 discounts between 2018 and 2020 and so far 1 in 2021. The drop in margins in 2019 was due to an increase in investments for sales and marketing issues, which was only a short-term issue.\nAmazon is the clear dominator in the cloud market and although it has lost market share in recent years, this has not prevented it from growing at very high rates. What's interesting? The expectation is that thecloud marketwill grow from 2020 to 2025 at a compound rate of 17.5%. Considering that it is currently the company's division with the best margins, this is great news for Amazon's future.\nAmazon'sbacklogis accelerating its growth; we talk about the last year has grown more than 50% YoY while AWS sales growth is more in line with 30%. The backlog is contracts with an average maturity period of 3 years that end up materializing in sales, so seeing the rate at which it is growing is certainly very interesting.\nBacklog contracts are usually with large companies to whom they make offers with consequent price cuts. AWS is being aggressive but can afford to be given the margins it operates on.\nThe backlog currently exceeds $50b, which should materialize over an average period of 3 years. This will be AWS sales but does not mean that these are the only sales that will materialize as there will continue to be growth in shorter-term contracts as at present.\nSource: Annual Report & Morgan Stanley Estimates\nThis graph shows exciting data. As I mentioned, the backlog has accelerated its growth while sales per se have been maintained (the last quarters). In the medium term, both curves will tend to converge.\nSupermarket\nThe supermarket sector is gigantic and today, Amazon's US market share in this segment is less than 3% of 2020 sales. Considering that Amazon's penetration in this segment is increasingly higher and that Amazon is learning more and more due to the integration of Whole Foods and the opening of Fresh, Go stores and above all, physical locations.\nThe opening of the first Amazon Fresh store in California is very recent; we are talking about September 2020 and from that date until May 2020 the number has risen to 12. Considering the pace of openings, it is clear that Amazon wants to focus on an Omnichannel model where you can buy physically or online, whichever best suits your needs at any given time.\nAmazon stores average 35,000 feet in size, selling about $754 per foot, in line with comparables such as (Wegmans, Kroger, Ahold) so the pace of Amazon's store rollout will mean interesting incremental sales (depending on the number of stores)\nOn the other hand Amazon is focusing on the consumer experience.Amazon Dash Cartis turning the shopping experience into something totally different. It will have a small initial learning curve for the consumer, but it substantially improves the supermarket shopping experience once the concept is understood. We are talking about a supermarket cart with intelligence to account for every product you put inside automatically. You can leave with the purchase without having to go through the checkout or similar, and to all this add, it lets you know how much you have spent at each moment, making the experience much more efficient.\nTherefore Amazon offers an omnichannel experience in which you can buy online and receive same-day delivery for free (on orders over $50 for prime users). You can also place the order and pick it up at the store or simply buy it in the store itself; let's say it's a similar approach to Inditex.\nHaving the ability to do click & collect or simply order to home delivery allows stores to leverage stores in various ways that will generate operational leverage and increased margins as order volumes increase.\nThe current trend is towards healthy food and in Amazon Fresh Stores, there is ample space for fresh and prepared food; we have space for fresh seafood, a sushi bar or even fresh pizza in the supermarket itself.\nReviews of the Amazon Fresh stores on google are very positive, with an average of 4.3 stars across all 12 locations and over 3,000 votes.\nIn a survey conducted by UBS in its 7th annual eCommerce survey, all respondents were asked the main reasons for buying online. With 43% of the answers, the most chosen was the convenience and comfort of doing it. It was a key point for the penetration to continue increasing since it is not because of something temporary such as prices, greater selection, but because of something structural.\nOn the opposite side, reasons for not buying online would be in the first position with 45% \"I prefer to see and touch the product.\" Another main reason is that it is easier to buy physically and this can be key, making online shopping more accessible with improvements to the process itself.\nTo get an idea of how the Amazon Groceries process works we have the following scheme:\nLooking at the schematic, it is easy to understand how Whole Foods fits into the process. Having incorporated physical stores, they serve as a logistics hub for shipments, allowing Amazon to improve efficiency.\nIn addition to being focused on all the aspects mentioned above, Amazon has also been concerned about generating its own brand, where margins are higher. An example of Amazon's own brands can be seen below.\nEspecially in the last few years (since 2017), Amazon's own brand has been significantly boosted. We talked about that in 2017 there were less than 20 Amazon own brands and very few products for sale. Currently, it has more than 120 own brands and 22,617 available. In addition, Amazon's own brand has an average of 4.3 stars reflecting consumer satisfaction levels.\nAmazon Ads\nThis is one of the biggest surprises and most undervalued assets that Amazon currently has. Advertising revenue is a source of income that is growing at an accelerated rate; we are talking about the fact that only 5 years ago, it was non-existent and now it is doubling every two years:\nThis evolution makes sense, considering that Amazon is the most powerful showcase globally to sell products, so being able to appear in the top positions is undoubtedly something very interesting for products. We are talking about a gigantic market where Amazon is just scratching the surface.\nConsidering the advertising spending of listed defensive consumer companies, we can get an idea of the size of this market, where Amazon has not yet monetized practically anything. Proof of the potential is simply to look at the growth in sales over the last few years, which gives us an idea of what is behind this market.\nAdvertising continues to shift to digital, and according to eMarketer, online advertising will account for approximately 64% of total advertising by 2024. This makes sense considering that it is much more direct advertising and reaches the consumer better than traditional media (TV, radio).\nAmazon within digital advertising is the greenest, in earlier stages while Google and Facebook are already much more mature advertising platforms.\nIt is undoubtedly effective advertising, do we have doubts that it is a boost in sales to appear at the top of the most important Marketplace in the world? We certainly do not. We believe that it is a part of income that makes a lot of sense and will grow exponentially. The structure of Amazon searches is usually as follows:\n\nAmazon Healthcare\nAlthough you find little more than a footnote about the Healthcare part of the business in Amazon's accounts, Amazon and TAM's plans for this segment are very strong. In November 2020Amazon Carewas approved in WA and will be present in 50 states by the summer and enable the distribution of prescription drugs, opening up a range for exciting new revenues.\nAmazon Care is Amazon's online clinic, which is expanding staff from the end of 2020. Amazon care launches as an internal trial (many Amazon divisions are born this way) in autumn 2019, offering a virtual medical clinic to employees to facilitate access to high-quality primary care online (although home visits are available in some areas). This initiative makes perfect sense in the United States, where healthcare is not universal and health insurance is expensive.\nWith Amazon Care you also have urgent care through its application; the services offered by the application are:\n\nMake an appointment\nIn-person follow-up care (select states only)\nMedical examinations\n24/7 service team, 365 days a year.\nRecipes delivered to your home.\nVaccines.\nVirtual consultation.\n\nWithin the application itself you have Care Chat, a chat that allows you to connect with registered nurses to get advice on health problems.\nAmazon intends to offer this service to independent companies seeking to provide this service for their employees and families. This segment will take time and where it is necessary to have a long-term vision, although the potential is certainly high.\nAmazon is interested not only in the pharmacy business, a B2C business but also in the B2B segment of medical device distribution, which would save a lot of paperwork for hospitals as it is a more direct distribution agreement that could save administrative procedures such as GPOs.\nConcerning the pharmacy side, it is clear that Amazon fits mostly into the hybrid physical plus online presence, emphasizing the online side.\nThe combination of Whole Foods + Amazon and Prime Now is powerful for this approach and Amazon already distributes many pharma products. However, I expect a substantial increase and greater efficiency (in terms of delivery times in Europe) in adding new products to the platform.\nIt is clear that Amazon is interested in the points mentioned above and this is reflected in its chronological evolution:\n\nIn 2018 Amazon launches its own brand: Basic Care.\nIn 2018 it acquired an online pharmacy: PillPack, which operates with a digital license in 49 states covering 90% of American households.\nLate 2018 reported talks with startup Xealth and the hospital network to allow doctors to purchase medical devices.\nReported in 2018 negotiations to buy MedPlus a company with 1,400 pharmacy outlets in India.\nSeptember 2019 launches Amazon Care.\nB2B growth has been more than x10 since 2016.\nMarch 2021 national expansion of Amazon Care to begin in the summer of 2021.\nLaunch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020.\n\nSelling pharmacy products with the Whole Foods combination allows for 2-hour delivery in the USA, which is very interesting thanks to Amazon's logistical features.\nAmazon has been taking steps in this direction for a few years and the most complicated part, which is to establish the infrastructure, is already more than done. Right now, Amazon can sell in the U.S. both online and via \"mail,\" the two most widely used, so its entry into this segment is already complete:\nThe final launch ofAmazon Pharmacycame in November 2020 through which prescription drugs will be available. It is currently approved in 45 states which means covering 90% of the American population. Amazon Pharmacy has a proposal to save 80% on generic and 40% on brand-name drugs when you do not pay with insurance and compare the price you get on Amazon with that of another possible distributor.\nFor any user who does not have insurance, currently, the prices offered by Amazon are the lowest. Those Prime users on Prime RX will receive discounts between 40-80% with deliveries of less than 2 days (free delivery).\nThe Amazon Pharmacy market is gigantic; we are talking about a market that moves more than $350b a year where two-thirds are distributed in retail and one-third via mail. Amazon is already able to reach the retail market and is working on reaching the mail order part, as this is a different market that usually works for chronic ailment drugs on autopilot.\nAn important point provided by Amazon Pharmacy is the collection of user data. As an online registry, you have the data of the profile of medicines that a certain person consumes, so this information is precious for certain players.\nThere are currently three Amazon pharmacy services:\n\nAmazon Pharmacy:allows customers to order prescription drugs for home delivery. Orders are delivered in discreet packaging to the customer's preferred address. Medications require a prescription from a licensed health care provider.\n\n\nPillPack by Amazon Pharmacy:part of Amazon Pharmacy and remains a distinct service for customers taking multiple medications daily for chronic conditions.\n\n\nAmazon Prime:Offers Prime members access to low prices on many brand names and generic prescription drugs when paying without insurance. It can be used to get discounts of up to 80% on generic drugs and 40% on brand-name drugs at more than 50,000 participating pharmacies nationwide, including Amazon Pharmacy and the PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy service.\n\nUnderstanding where Amazon is positioned, the opportunity is enormous:\n\nRetail sale of medicines\nB2B sales of medical devices\nOnline medical care.\n\nGaming and Twitch\nAmazon has made several 2014 acquisitions related to gaming; the chronology would be as follows:\n\nIn 2014 Amazon acquires Doublé Helix Games.\nAlso in 2014, Amazon acquired Twitch.\nIn 2016 it launched a tool: Lumberyard that enables game development.\nIn 2016, it acquired the online gaming portal \"Curse.\"\n2018 acquires GameSparks.\n\nOf all the acquisitions made, absolute reality is twitch, achieving spectacular user and viewing metrics and wild growth.\nThe future lies in the cloud and subscriptions, as well as in in-game purchases. Console and game sales have been flat for a few years or with fragile growth, and it is the subscription, cloud and multiplayer, and in-game purchases that have been growing.\nIn the future, it is foreseeable that this trend will accelerate with cloud gaming being the clear dominator and console sales declining at high rates, so positioning in this segment will be key to absorb sales in the form of subscription: PlayStation Now, GeForce Now, Stadia.\nDistribution has already changed a lot but from now on the changes are expected to intensify. In the past, the Publisher published the game on the platform or console and the platform or console delivered it to the consumer.\nThe new distribution will start from the cloud so that the relationship will start from Azure, AWS or the corresponding player. The broadband provider will come into play and finally, the corresponding cloud platform (Stadia, PlayStation Now...). In this part, there will clearly be a strong growth and where everything remains to be done and positioned.\nMusic and Video\nThe $8.45 billion acquisition of Metro Goldwyn Mayer(NYSE:MGM)is significant for Amazon, the company's second-largest acquisition after the $13.7 billion Whole Foods deal in 2017, but representing just half of 1% of AMZN's market capitalization.\nThrough the acquisition, AMZN gains access to MGM's extensive library of more than 4,000 films, including notable franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and Tomb Raider. AMZN also acquires 17,000 television programs, including series (Fargo, The Handmaid's Tale) and shows (Shark Tank, The Voice).\nMGM accumulates more than 180 Academy Awards and 100 Emmys. Overall, the MGM deal should allow Amazon to create a more compelling Video offering to attract new subscribers for the Prime ecosystem. The great advantage of streaming and Prime subscription is that it is a business of scale where MGM's acquisition costs are diluted the broader the user base, which is enhanced by this acquisition.\nWith 175M users on Prime video and 200 on Prime, this acquisition will possibly catalyze to create new subscribers.\nMGM's content is important and the intellectual property acquired by Amazon, which will allow it to produce more original and exclusive content, which will allow it to compete in a more relevant way with Netflix and Disney.\nWe do not rule out that there may be more acquisitions on the video side. The larger the subscriber base, the higher the acquisition costs are diluted over a higher base, positively feeding back into the Prime ecosystem.\nAs for the price, it is clear that it has not been a cheap purchase, although the important thing is what its integration means more than what MGM currently generates. We are talking about 25x EBITDA, which is in the highest range of M&A in the average sector. It is understandable considering the current valuations in the markets; of course these have not helped the price to be \"cheap.\" From a broad point of view the integration makes sense in the ecosystem that Amazon is trying to create with Prime.\nWhen it comes to integrating MGM into Amazon, an important question arises: Is Amazon going to do without the 60% of MGM's revenue generated from content licensing? Is it not going to do without it?\nIn the first case, it would become exclusive content of Amazon, generating more value for Amazon Video; in the second case it would not contribute much value to Amazon Video considering that it would not be exclusive content.\nVenture Capital\nAmazon allocates a small part of its cash to investments in startups and although it is not transparent about this, we do know the intentions of these investments.\nThe Amazon Alexa Fund (200M) has a focus on integrating health issues into the home by investing in startups such as Aiva (a virtual assistant that connects seniors with their healthcare service), Tonal (artificial intelligence for home fitness) and Zwift (a virtual cycling app).\nIt has recently launched another fund that will invest in Indian startups, mostly related to Healthcare fabrics.\nRisks\n\nCovering too many different products or markets: The bets on Amazon Music, Amazon Video and the like, at the moment do not have too much of a view to succeed. Amazon's purpose indeed is to offer an attractive package, not the product separately.\nBezos' departure should not affect too much considering the company's size, but it is clear that he has been a key figure in Amazon's evolution.\nRegulation. A company of Amazon's size will always face regulatory risks.\nA slowdown in AWS is currently driving operating profit.\nThat all the optionality of new business lines does not end up fitting.\n\nWaymo, although it may not seem like it, is a threat to Amazon. The number of miles traveled by Waymo is increasing and its development is becoming more mature.\nGoogle with its powerful search engine could create an interesting combination with the shopping part in which you buy through Google, the retailers have the inventory and the logistics are Waymo itself delivering the product autonomously in a short period of time:\nAmazon has been working for years on drone delivery and making deliveries increasingly efficient, so it has been protecting itself from this potential latent risk for years.\nIn the end Amazon wants the process to be as follows:\nWorking Capital\nTo understand Amazon's FCF, it is important to talk about Amazon's working capital changes, as these are very peculiar. The first quarter is always very negative, penalizing the CFO. The following quarters the Working Capital changes neutralize the effect of the first quarter, bringing cash flow to Amazon. This happens mainly because at the end of the year there are many pending payments to suppliers and expenses to be settled, so that at the beginning of the year when these accounts are settled, the changes in working capital are very negative, hurting Amazon's operating cash flow.\nProfitability\nAmazon's profitability has varied substantially as they have started investing aggressively in the business and growing their assets and capital employed considerably. We are talking about an 80-fold increase in assets since 2006, which reflects the lines I have previously discussed.\nAs margins are expanding, the path of improving return on assets and capital employed has returned, with ROCE currently at 20%, ROE at 23% and ROA at 7%. Undoubtedly, these are levels that indicate that Amazon is a quality company. As a note, Amazon is in a period of intensive investments and with a clear potential for margin expansion in the future, so it would be foreseeable that these metrics will continue to rise.\n\nValuation\nAmazon is a complicated company to value because of its size and the point at which it finds itself; large investments and very high margin expansion potential.\nIt currently trades at around 60x EV/FCF. Still, if we normalize both Working Capital and Capex (it has increased from 5% of sales to 9%), we would be talking about 35x EV/FCF for a company with very high quality and with most of the divisions only scratching the surface of their potential.\nJust by looking at the multiples, we could already say that it is reasonable considering the prospects and position of the business.\nIt currently trades at about 36x EV/FCF, below its average EV/FCF multiple considering a normalized WC and normalized CAPEX. This already gives us an idea that it can be a company to consider as Amazon today is a much stronger business than 10 years ago.\nIf we project sales and FCF assuming conservative assumptions and normalizing both Cash Flow and Working Capital we obtain the following estimates:\nUnder these assumptions, we performed a valuation by multiples and DCF:\nWe would be buying Amazon at a reasonable price without assuming that any of the above optionalities explode, so the margin of safety is wide even though the upside is tight.\nConclusion\nAmazon is a company that is reaping the rewards after decades of sowing. These are the years where surprises start to emerge, margins start to expand, and more optionality starts appearing. Having the opportunity to acquire a company of this quality at a \"reasonable\" price is one of those opportunities, from a profitability-risk point of view, that in the long term make the difference.\nIt is important to closely follow the evolution of the different segments and the optionality associated with them and the ARPUS of the international segment since it is the one with the greatest potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182874403,"gmtCreate":1623565662802,"gmtModify":1704206340496,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182874403","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142204074","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623441637,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142204074?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P ekes out gains to close languid week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142204074","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, June 11  - The S&P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.Economically sensitive smallcaps and transports notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.For the week, the S&P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.But th","content":"<p>NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive smallcaps and transports&nbsp;notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.</p>\n<p>For the week, the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.</p>\n<p>But the indexes have been range-bound, with few catalysts to move investor sentiment. Much of the focus centered on Thursday's consumer price data, which eased jitters over the duration of the current inflation wave.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a muted day today,\" Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. \"The summer is settling in, people are slipping out of work early and there’s nothing in the news that’s going to materially drive the market in either direction.\"</p>\n<p>\"So, investors are going to wait until earnings season.\"</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that near-term price surges will not metastasize into lasting inflation, an assertion reflected in the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report released on Friday, which showed inflation expectations easing from last month's spike.</p>\n<p>Investors now turn their attention to the Fed's statement at the conclusion of next week's two-day monetary policy meeting, which will be parsed for clues regarding the central bank's timetable for raising key interest rates.</p>\n<p>\"Our view continues to be that inflationary data is transient and we will be around the 2% mark for the year,\" Pursche added.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly drop in nearly a year, weighing on the interest-sensitive financial sector in recent sessions.</p>\n<p>The Food and Drug Administration is facing mounting criticism over its \"accelerated approval\" of Biogen Inc's</p>\n<p>Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm without strong evidence of its ability to combat the disease.</p>\n<p>Biogen shares, along with the broader healthcare sector&nbsp;ended the session lower.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.41 points, or 0.04%, to 34,480.65, the S&amp;P 500 gained 8.29 points, or 0.20%, to 4,247.47 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;added 49.09 points, or 0.35%, to 14,069.42.</p>\n<p>Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare suffered the biggest percentage drop.</p>\n<p>Much of the trading volume this week was attributable to the ongoing social media-driven \"meme stock\" phenomenon, in which retail investors swarm around heavily shorted stocks.</p>\n<p>But meme stock moves were more muted on Friday, with AMC Entertainment outperforming.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stephen Culp in New York Additional reporting by Ambar Warrick and Devik Jain in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew Lewis and Cynthia Osterman)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P ekes out gains to close languid week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive smallcaps and transports&nbsp;notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.</p>\n<p>For the week, the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.</p>\n<p>But the indexes have been range-bound, with few catalysts to move investor sentiment. Much of the focus centered on Thursday's consumer price data, which eased jitters over the duration of the current inflation wave.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a muted day today,\" Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. \"The summer is settling in, people are slipping out of work early and there’s nothing in the news that’s going to materially drive the market in either direction.\"</p>\n<p>\"So, investors are going to wait until earnings season.\"</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that near-term price surges will not metastasize into lasting inflation, an assertion reflected in the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report released on Friday, which showed inflation expectations easing from last month's spike.</p>\n<p>Investors now turn their attention to the Fed's statement at the conclusion of next week's two-day monetary policy meeting, which will be parsed for clues regarding the central bank's timetable for raising key interest rates.</p>\n<p>\"Our view continues to be that inflationary data is transient and we will be around the 2% mark for the year,\" Pursche added.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly drop in nearly a year, weighing on the interest-sensitive financial sector in recent sessions.</p>\n<p>The Food and Drug Administration is facing mounting criticism over its \"accelerated approval\" of Biogen Inc's</p>\n<p>Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm without strong evidence of its ability to combat the disease.</p>\n<p>Biogen shares, along with the broader healthcare sector&nbsp;ended the session lower.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.41 points, or 0.04%, to 34,480.65, the S&amp;P 500 gained 8.29 points, or 0.20%, to 4,247.47 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;added 49.09 points, or 0.35%, to 14,069.42.</p>\n<p>Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare suffered the biggest percentage drop.</p>\n<p>Much of the trading volume this week was attributable to the ongoing social media-driven \"meme stock\" phenomenon, in which retail investors swarm around heavily shorted stocks.</p>\n<p>But meme stock moves were more muted on Friday, with AMC Entertainment outperforming.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stephen Culp in New York Additional reporting by Ambar Warrick and Devik Jain in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew Lewis and Cynthia Osterman)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142204074","content_text":"NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed nominally higher at the end of a torpid week marked with few market-moving catalysts and persistent concerns over whether current inflation spikes could linger and cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten its dovish policy sooner than expected.\nEconomically sensitive smallcaps and transports notched solid gains, outperforming the broader market.\nFor the week, the S&P and the Nasdaq advanced from last Friday's close, while the Dow posted a weekly loss.\nBut the indexes have been range-bound, with few catalysts to move investor sentiment. Much of the focus centered on Thursday's consumer price data, which eased jitters over the duration of the current inflation wave.\n\"It’s a muted day today,\" Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. \"The summer is settling in, people are slipping out of work early and there’s nothing in the news that’s going to materially drive the market in either direction.\"\n\"So, investors are going to wait until earnings season.\"\nThe Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that near-term price surges will not metastasize into lasting inflation, an assertion reflected in the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report released on Friday, which showed inflation expectations easing from last month's spike.\nInvestors now turn their attention to the Fed's statement at the conclusion of next week's two-day monetary policy meeting, which will be parsed for clues regarding the central bank's timetable for raising key interest rates.\n\"Our view continues to be that inflationary data is transient and we will be around the 2% mark for the year,\" Pursche added.\nBenchmark U.S. Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly drop in nearly a year, weighing on the interest-sensitive financial sector in recent sessions.\nThe Food and Drug Administration is facing mounting criticism over its \"accelerated approval\" of Biogen Inc's\nAlzheimer's drug Aduhelm without strong evidence of its ability to combat the disease.\nBiogen shares, along with the broader healthcare sector ended the session lower.\nUnofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.41 points, or 0.04%, to 34,480.65, the S&P 500 gained 8.29 points, or 0.20%, to 4,247.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 49.09 points, or 0.35%, to 14,069.42.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare suffered the biggest percentage drop.\nMuch of the trading volume this week was attributable to the ongoing social media-driven \"meme stock\" phenomenon, in which retail investors swarm around heavily shorted stocks.\nBut meme stock moves were more muted on Friday, with AMC Entertainment outperforming.\n(Reporting by Stephen Culp in New York Additional reporting by Ambar Warrick and Devik Jain in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew Lewis and Cynthia Osterman)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182874668,"gmtCreate":1623565650054,"gmtModify":1704206339983,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182874668","repostId":"1190309980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190309980","pubTimestamp":1623411452,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190309980?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 19:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Crucial Lessons From Cathie Wood About Apple Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190309980","media":"The Street","summary":"Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is not much of an investor in Apple stock. But the famed fund manager has offered valuable advice about the Cupertino company’s shares that is worth revisiting.In doing my daily research of Apple stock  -Get Report, I stumbled upon a gem from Ark Invest’s CEO, CIO and rockstar money manager Cathie Wood. In January 2016, during aninterviewwith CNBC, she was asked which stock seemed like a better buy at the time: AAPL or AMZN.Considering Apple stock’s loss of 5% in 2015, h","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is not much of an investor in Apple stock. But the famed fund manager has offered valuable advice about the Cupertino company’s shares that is worth revisiting.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In doing my daily research of Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report, I stumbled upon a gem from Ark Invest’s CEO, CIO and rockstar money manager Cathie Wood. In January 2016, during aninterviewwith CNBC, she was asked which stock seemed like a better buy at the time: AAPL or AMZN.</p>\n<p>Considering Apple stock’s loss of 5% in 2015, her response was the following:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “At this moment, […] Apple might be, because […] the thinking there is so short term. […] Apple is going to become a big company, and [the stock] has been depressed recently by channel checks: how iPhone sales will do in the first quarter, or in the second quarter.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Since this interview, Apple share price climbed a whopping 400%-plus in just over five years.</p>\n<p><b>#1. Buying quality on weakness</b></p>\n<p>The first important lesson from Ms. Wood’s 2016 insight above is that high-quality companies, whose stocks are likely to climb over time, should be bought on weakness. The logic is simple: if the long-term trend is up, buy shares when the market is selling them at a discount.</p>\n<p>I put some numbers around this ideaa couple of months ago. Historically, it has made much more sense to buy AAPL when shares declined from a previous peak.</p>\n<p>The chart below shows the historical average one-year return in Apple stock under different scenarios. Notice that, the more shares dip, the higher the future returns have been.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8f3b347dced7ad7d67e5c7ef756c550\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"348\">Following the same logic, current Apple investors might be encouraged that the stock remains under water: 12% below the January 2021 top of $143. Should AAPL make fresh all-time highs soon, asI recently speculated that it could, returns for the remainder of the year may start to look appealing.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Filtering out short-term noise</b></p>\n<p>The second point made by Cathie Wood is at least as important. In her view, Apple stock was under pressure in 2015 and early 2016 due to short-term concerns over smartphone sales in the following couple of quarters, especially after the blockbuster release of the iPhone 6.</p>\n<p>In analyzing market movements, I believe it helps to think about the real drivers of share price: buyers and sellers of the stock. Sometimes, people on both sides of the transaction are more concerned about how a stock might perform in the near term, possibly hoping to make a quick buck – and this is just fine.</p>\n<p>In these cases, long-term buyers are probably better off ignoring “short term noise” about what sales or earnings might look like right around the corner. Better yet, they might want to take advantage of selling pressures created by short-term traders to enter a position at better prices.</p>\n<p>Apple might be faced with a similar setup in 2021. The chatter on Wall Street seems torevolve around the company’s follow throughto a successful pandemic year and launch of the first 5G-capable iPhone.</p>\n<p>But look beyond the next 12 months, and one might find it easier to make a bullish case on Apple stock. The company continues to grow revenues, expand margins, pile on cash, while it has yet to tap intoopportunities in mixed realityandautonomous vehicles.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>Big Tech stocks like Amazon and Apple are a tiny piece of famed investor Cathie Wood’s ARK portfolios. In your view, which of the following FAAMG names would deserve higher allocation in a tech disrupter and innovator ETF? Leave your vote below on our partner's Twitter, @AmazonMaven.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/565580495c2d16818604c9b6d814b1db\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"480\"></p>\n<p><b>Is the price right?</b></p>\n<p>Looking at a company’s business fundamentals is only half the work needed to find a good stock. How much one pays to own the shares is a key factor in the success of any investment. This is why valuation analysis is so important.</p>\n<p>Alpha Spread’suser-friendly platform allows you to estimate a stock’s fair value –through valuation multiples, discounted cash flow, and more. I believe that the service is a must for anyone looking to own the right stock at the right price.Check out alphaspread.comand get started with a 7-day free trial.</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Crucial Lessons From Cathie Wood About Apple Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Crucial Lessons From Cathie Wood About Apple Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 19:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/2-crucial-lessons-from-cathie-wood-about-apple-stock><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is not much of an investor in Apple stock. But the famed fund manager has offered valuable advice about the Cupertino company’s shares that is worth revisiting.\n\nIn doing my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/2-crucial-lessons-from-cathie-wood-about-apple-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/2-crucial-lessons-from-cathie-wood-about-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190309980","content_text":"Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is not much of an investor in Apple stock. But the famed fund manager has offered valuable advice about the Cupertino company’s shares that is worth revisiting.\n\nIn doing my daily research of Apple stock (AAPL) -Get Report, I stumbled upon a gem from Ark Invest’s CEO, CIO and rockstar money manager Cathie Wood. In January 2016, during aninterviewwith CNBC, she was asked which stock seemed like a better buy at the time: AAPL or AMZN.\nConsidering Apple stock’s loss of 5% in 2015, her response was the following:\n\n “At this moment, […] Apple might be, because […] the thinking there is so short term. […] Apple is going to become a big company, and [the stock] has been depressed recently by channel checks: how iPhone sales will do in the first quarter, or in the second quarter.”\n\nSince this interview, Apple share price climbed a whopping 400%-plus in just over five years.\n#1. Buying quality on weakness\nThe first important lesson from Ms. Wood’s 2016 insight above is that high-quality companies, whose stocks are likely to climb over time, should be bought on weakness. The logic is simple: if the long-term trend is up, buy shares when the market is selling them at a discount.\nI put some numbers around this ideaa couple of months ago. Historically, it has made much more sense to buy AAPL when shares declined from a previous peak.\nThe chart below shows the historical average one-year return in Apple stock under different scenarios. Notice that, the more shares dip, the higher the future returns have been.\nFollowing the same logic, current Apple investors might be encouraged that the stock remains under water: 12% below the January 2021 top of $143. Should AAPL make fresh all-time highs soon, asI recently speculated that it could, returns for the remainder of the year may start to look appealing.\n#2. Filtering out short-term noise\nThe second point made by Cathie Wood is at least as important. In her view, Apple stock was under pressure in 2015 and early 2016 due to short-term concerns over smartphone sales in the following couple of quarters, especially after the blockbuster release of the iPhone 6.\nIn analyzing market movements, I believe it helps to think about the real drivers of share price: buyers and sellers of the stock. Sometimes, people on both sides of the transaction are more concerned about how a stock might perform in the near term, possibly hoping to make a quick buck – and this is just fine.\nIn these cases, long-term buyers are probably better off ignoring “short term noise” about what sales or earnings might look like right around the corner. Better yet, they might want to take advantage of selling pressures created by short-term traders to enter a position at better prices.\nApple might be faced with a similar setup in 2021. The chatter on Wall Street seems torevolve around the company’s follow throughto a successful pandemic year and launch of the first 5G-capable iPhone.\nBut look beyond the next 12 months, and one might find it easier to make a bullish case on Apple stock. The company continues to grow revenues, expand margins, pile on cash, while it has yet to tap intoopportunities in mixed realityandautonomous vehicles.\nTwitter speaks\nBig Tech stocks like Amazon and Apple are a tiny piece of famed investor Cathie Wood’s ARK portfolios. In your view, which of the following FAAMG names would deserve higher allocation in a tech disrupter and innovator ETF? Leave your vote below on our partner's Twitter, @AmazonMaven.\n\nIs the price right?\nLooking at a company’s business fundamentals is only half the work needed to find a good stock. How much one pays to own the shares is a key factor in the success of any investment. This is why valuation analysis is so important.\nAlpha Spread’suser-friendly platform allows you to estimate a stock’s fair value –through valuation multiples, discounted cash flow, and more. I believe that the service is a must for anyone looking to own the right stock at the right price.Check out alphaspread.comand get started with a 7-day free trial.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000231996,"gmtCreate":1640191867616,"gmtModify":1676533506201,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes!!!!!","listText":"Yes!!!!!","text":"Yes!!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000231996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160355947,"gmtCreate":1623773341589,"gmtModify":1703819084061,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160355947","repostId":"1180386317","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160350441,"gmtCreate":1623773226783,"gmtModify":1703819077263,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160350441","repostId":"2143578147","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160326562,"gmtCreate":1623773140856,"gmtModify":1703819069502,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160326562","repostId":"2143752015","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184192614,"gmtCreate":1623687447338,"gmtModify":1704208812522,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184192614","repostId":"2143738880","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184192069,"gmtCreate":1623687435051,"gmtModify":1704208812034,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184192069","repostId":"2143738600","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185626028,"gmtCreate":1623647036264,"gmtModify":1704207777665,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185626028","repostId":"2143783813","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623626268,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143786565?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 07:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Spotlight on Xbox Game Pass as Microsoft showcases upcoming games","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143786565","media":"Reuters","summary":"STOCKHOLM, June 13  - Microsoft on Sunday showcased 30 upcoming games and said most of those titles will be available on its monthly subscription service, Xbox Game Pass.The company said it would launch new games on Game Pass every month through the end of the year, including titles such as PC strategy series \"Age of Empires IV\" and racing game \"Forza Horizon 5.\". One of Microsoft's big-ticket games, \"Halo Infinite,\" is now set for a holiday launch this year after being delayed due to the challe","content":"<p>STOCKHOLM, June 13 (Reuters) - Microsoft on Sunday showcased 30 upcoming games and said most of those titles will be available on its monthly subscription service, Xbox Game Pass.</p>\n<p>The company said it would launch&nbsp;new games on Game Pass every month through the end of the year, including titles such as PC strategy series \"Age of Empires IV\" and racing game \"Forza Horizon 5.\"</p>\n<p>One of Microsoft's big-ticket games, \"Halo Infinite,\" is now set for a holiday launch this year after being delayed due to the challenge of developers being stuck at home during coronavirus restrictions.</p>\n<p>Several of the game launches announced by Microsoft at the E3 conference came from video game publisher Bethesda, behind hits such as Fallout and Doom. Microsoft last year bought ZeniMax Media, parent company of Bethesda, for $7.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Microsoft also announced launch dates of two big-budget games, exclusive to Xbox and PC - role playing game \"Starfield\" and vampire-themed shooting game \"Redfall.\" \"Starfield\" will launch on Nov. 11, 2022 and \"Redfall\" next Summer.</p>\n<p>Both Microsoft and Sony launched their next-generation gaming devices in November last year and have seen heightened demand for the consoles as gamers stuck at home due to the pandemic snapped up the devices.</p>\n<p>Gaming analytics firm Newzoo forecasts that the global games market will generate revenue of $175.8 billion in 2021, with 2.9 billion players, and surpass $200 billion in 2023.</p>\n<p>Microsoft has also been developing its cloud gaming service to attract casual gamers and its own streaming devices.</p>\n<p>Game Pass has hundreds of games playable on Xbox consoles, Android devices and PCs with a $9.99 monthly fee.</p>\n<p>\"What makes us different from a service like Netflix is that we give players both options, a subscription package and also a full retail store,\" said Phil Spencer, head of Xbox.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spotlight on Xbox Game Pass as Microsoft showcases upcoming games</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpotlight on Xbox Game Pass as Microsoft showcases upcoming games\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-14 07:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>STOCKHOLM, June 13 (Reuters) - Microsoft on Sunday showcased 30 upcoming games and said most of those titles will be available on its monthly subscription service, Xbox Game Pass.</p>\n<p>The company said it would launch&nbsp;new games on Game Pass every month through the end of the year, including titles such as PC strategy series \"Age of Empires IV\" and racing game \"Forza Horizon 5.\"</p>\n<p>One of Microsoft's big-ticket games, \"Halo Infinite,\" is now set for a holiday launch this year after being delayed due to the challenge of developers being stuck at home during coronavirus restrictions.</p>\n<p>Several of the game launches announced by Microsoft at the E3 conference came from video game publisher Bethesda, behind hits such as Fallout and Doom. Microsoft last year bought ZeniMax Media, parent company of Bethesda, for $7.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Microsoft also announced launch dates of two big-budget games, exclusive to Xbox and PC - role playing game \"Starfield\" and vampire-themed shooting game \"Redfall.\" \"Starfield\" will launch on Nov. 11, 2022 and \"Redfall\" next Summer.</p>\n<p>Both Microsoft and Sony launched their next-generation gaming devices in November last year and have seen heightened demand for the consoles as gamers stuck at home due to the pandemic snapped up the devices.</p>\n<p>Gaming analytics firm Newzoo forecasts that the global games market will generate revenue of $175.8 billion in 2021, with 2.9 billion players, and surpass $200 billion in 2023.</p>\n<p>Microsoft has also been developing its cloud gaming service to attract casual gamers and its own streaming devices.</p>\n<p>Game Pass has hundreds of games playable on Xbox consoles, Android devices and PCs with a $9.99 monthly fee.</p>\n<p>\"What makes us different from a service like Netflix is that we give players both options, a subscription package and also a full retail store,\" said Phil Spencer, head of Xbox.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143786565","content_text":"STOCKHOLM, June 13 (Reuters) - Microsoft on Sunday showcased 30 upcoming games and said most of those titles will be available on its monthly subscription service, Xbox Game Pass.\nThe company said it would launch new games on Game Pass every month through the end of the year, including titles such as PC strategy series \"Age of Empires IV\" and racing game \"Forza Horizon 5.\"\nOne of Microsoft's big-ticket games, \"Halo Infinite,\" is now set for a holiday launch this year after being delayed due to the challenge of developers being stuck at home during coronavirus restrictions.\nSeveral of the game launches announced by Microsoft at the E3 conference came from video game publisher Bethesda, behind hits such as Fallout and Doom. Microsoft last year bought ZeniMax Media, parent company of Bethesda, for $7.5 billion.\nMicrosoft also announced launch dates of two big-budget games, exclusive to Xbox and PC - role playing game \"Starfield\" and vampire-themed shooting game \"Redfall.\" \"Starfield\" will launch on Nov. 11, 2022 and \"Redfall\" next Summer.\nBoth Microsoft and Sony launched their next-generation gaming devices in November last year and have seen heightened demand for the consoles as gamers stuck at home due to the pandemic snapped up the devices.\nGaming analytics firm Newzoo forecasts that the global games market will generate revenue of $175.8 billion in 2021, with 2.9 billion players, and surpass $200 billion in 2023.\nMicrosoft has also been developing its cloud gaming service to attract casual gamers and its own streaming devices.\nGame Pass has hundreds of games playable on Xbox consoles, Android devices and PCs with a $9.99 monthly fee.\n\"What makes us different from a service like Netflix is that we give players both options, a subscription package and also a full retail store,\" said Phil Spencer, head of Xbox.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182606658,"gmtCreate":1623566055174,"gmtModify":1704206350079,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182606658","repostId":"2141235375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141235375","pubTimestamp":1623057000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141235375?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google Fined $268 Million as France Tackles Big Tech Ad Power","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141235375","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Google agreed to pay 220 million euros ($268 million) to settle a French antitrust pr","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Google agreed to pay 220 million euros ($268 million) to settle a French antitrust probe over its abuse of power in online advertising.</p><p>The French Competition Authority said Google has been unfairly sending business to its advertising server and its online-ad auction house, to the detriment of rivals.</p><p>In addition to the fine, Google promised to remedy the situation by improving the interoperability of its Google Ad Manager services for third parties.</p><p>“The decision fining Google is particularly significant as it is the first throughout the world to tackle complex algorithmic auction processes used for online display-advertising,” Isabelle de Silva, who heads France’s Autorité de la concurrence, said in a statement on Monday.</p><p>With separate cases into Google, Apple Inc. and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc., French antitrust regulators are starting to rein in anti-competitive behavior in online advertising. While Google’s case ended with a fine, Facebook last week tried to avoid that by making commitments to placate regulators.</p><p>The Google case stems from a complaint lodged in 2019 by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., French newspaper Le Figaro and Belgian media group Rossel La Voix.</p><p>It’s not the first time Google has attracted French antitrust scrutiny over online advertising after a 150 million-euro fine in 2019. The search engine also risks a penalty in the coming weeks over suspicions it failed to comply with an order relating to its news service.</p><p>Google&nbsp;fell&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket trading&nbsp;Monday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02e79abe7eb8304a690e5dfb572f078\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"439\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca4d60cdd9f0be185c3471aae13904a5\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"439\"></p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google Fined $268 Million as France Tackles Big Tech Ad Power</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle Fined $268 Million as France Tackles Big Tech Ad Power\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 17:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-07/google-fined-268-million-as-france-tackles-big-tech-ad-power?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Google agreed to pay 220 million euros ($268 million) to settle a French antitrust probe over its abuse of power in online advertising.The French Competition Authority said Google has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-07/google-fined-268-million-as-france-tackles-big-tech-ad-power?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","09086":"华夏纳指-U","PW":"Power REIT","03086":"华夏纳指","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-07/google-fined-268-million-as-france-tackles-big-tech-ad-power?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141235375","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Google agreed to pay 220 million euros ($268 million) to settle a French antitrust probe over its abuse of power in online advertising.The French Competition Authority said Google has been unfairly sending business to its advertising server and its online-ad auction house, to the detriment of rivals.In addition to the fine, Google promised to remedy the situation by improving the interoperability of its Google Ad Manager services for third parties.“The decision fining Google is particularly significant as it is the first throughout the world to tackle complex algorithmic auction processes used for online display-advertising,” Isabelle de Silva, who heads France’s Autorité de la concurrence, said in a statement on Monday.With separate cases into Google, Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc., French antitrust regulators are starting to rein in anti-competitive behavior in online advertising. While Google’s case ended with a fine, Facebook last week tried to avoid that by making commitments to placate regulators.The Google case stems from a complaint lodged in 2019 by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., French newspaper Le Figaro and Belgian media group Rossel La Voix.It’s not the first time Google has attracted French antitrust scrutiny over online advertising after a 150 million-euro fine in 2019. The search engine also risks a penalty in the coming weeks over suspicions it failed to comply with an order relating to its news service.Google fell in premarket trading Monday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182601563,"gmtCreate":1623565956452,"gmtModify":1704206347475,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182601563","repostId":"2140542610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182601689,"gmtCreate":1623565945741,"gmtModify":1704206346664,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182601689","repostId":"2140542610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182600125,"gmtCreate":1623565750267,"gmtModify":1704206342602,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182600125","repostId":"1170860218","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170860218","pubTimestamp":1621583624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170860218?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 15:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox: Building The Metaverse, But For Whom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170860218","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRoblox is effectively the YouTube of game development and game consumption.\nGame creators, ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Roblox is effectively the YouTube of game development and game consumption.</li>\n <li>Game creators, who are often just average people with little in the way of coding skills, can build games on the platform and sell those games to users of the platform.</li>\n <li>The platform has something of its own economy, in which Robux are used as currency to purchase games and for micro-purchases within those games.</li>\n <li>Historically, a very young demographic has found the platform appealing, leading to questions about its ability to evolve upstream and create a true metaverse.</li>\n <li>Roblox has rapidly grown, and in this note, we provide a very deep and comprehensive exploration of the platform. Ultimately, we rate the company a modest buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a50e6bae4d28d9fb1a3a3b477be5436\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Ian Tuttle/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Roblox (RBLX) is a social gaming marketplace platform that connects gamers and developers. Through its global community of 8 million-plus developers, Roblox provides immersive gaming experiences that are shared by millions of gamers. In 2020, mobile gaming platforms like Roblox saw explosive growth in revenue as users flocked to these platforms during coronavirus-enforced lockdowns. A year of bookings stagnation awaits Roblox as demand for mobile gaming normalizes. However, AR/VR is just getting started, and the company has a long growth runway due to the large size of its TAM. Roblox is a free cash flow generation machine, as we will learn in this article, but the current valuation is a little too steep considering the weak guidance for 2021.</p>\n<p><i><b>Here's our investment thesis for Roblox:</b></i></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Roblox is a platform that enables users to enjoy millions of immersive 3D experiences (primarily games). Like YouTube, Roblox's content is user generated. Today, Roblox has more than 32M daily active users and 8M+ developers on its platform.</p></li>\n <li><p>Right from its inception in 2006, Roblox has been led by its visionary founder - David Baszucki. His vision for social gaming and shared virtual experiences is the driving force behind the company's admirable success.</p></li>\n <li><p>Roblox is a highly profitable business that's growing like a weed at scale. In 2020, Roblox's business was boosted by the coronavirus pandemic as mobile gaming saw exponential growth. However, the rise in mobile gaming is a secular growth trend. Furthermore, AR/VR technology is set to go mainstream over the coming years, which will likely help Roblox drive future revenue growth.</p></li>\n <li><p>The Roblox platform is powered by advanced proprietary technology. Developers create content using Roblox Studio, and consumers (gamers) access this content through Roblox Client (interface to 3D digital worlds). Money is made through the sale of Roblox's virtual currency - Robux, which players use to make in-game purchases.</p></li>\n <li><p>For 2021, Roblox is expecting revenue to grow from $923M to ~$1450M. However, the bookings are projected to rise by just 10% year-over-year (near-stagnation), and free cash flow is set to decline too. The company is well capitalized, and it's already free cash flow generative, so I do not foresee any significant dilutionary events for Roblox.</p></li>\n <li><p>During the recent correction in high-growth tech stocks, Roblox has surprisingly held on to its IPO bounce. There are many great deals out there in the market right now. However, Roblox is not one of them. The stock is trading at a premium of 20% to its fair value. Since the expected returns for Roblox is less than BTM's investment hurdle rate, I rate it hold at $70.</p></li>\n <li><p>Roblox is a great company, which I would buy on dips. At BTM, we will initiate a starter position below $60 (if we get such an opportunity). For now, Roblox is being added to our primary portfolio as a hold.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>In today's article, we will study Roblox's business in detail, analyze its financials, and determine its fair value.</p>\n<p><b>Introducing Roblox</b></p>\n<p>Roblox is a social gaming platform where an average of 37.1 million people from around the world come to play games with friends on a daily basis. While on Roblox, users can play, learn, explore, and communicate in user-generated virtual realities (games with 3D digital worlds) created by Roblox's community of 8M+ game developers. Roblox terms this emerging category as \"human co-experience\", which it considers to be the new form of social interaction (and this idea was envisioned by Roblox way back in 2004).</p>\n<p>The Roblox platform is powered by user-generated content (like YouTube (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)) and draws inspiration from gaming, entertainment, social media, and even toys. This emerging category is also referred to as the metaverse - a term often used to describe the concept of persistent, shared, 3D virtual spaces in a virtual universe. I discussed this concept in a note entitled, \"Introducing President Mark Zuckerberg.\"</p>\n<p>The idea of a metaverse has been written about by futurists and science fiction authors for over 30 years. With the advent of increasingly powerful consumer computing devices, cloud computing, and high bandwidth internet connections, the concept of the metaverse is materializing.</p>\n<p>The Roblox human co-experience platform serves as the underlying technology and infrastructure that supports shared experiences for millions of users, and it consists of the Roblox Client, the Roblox Studio, and the Roblox Cloud.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i><b>Roblox Client</b></i>- The application that allows users to explore 3D digital worlds.</p></li>\n <li><p><i>Roblox Studio</i>- The toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences and other content accessed with the Roblox Client.</p></li>\n <li><p><i>Roblox Cloud</i>- The services and infrastructure that power the human co-experience platform.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Roblox's mission is to build a human co-experience platform that enables shared experiences among billions of users. Since its inception, Roblox has invested heavily in building the Roblox platform, and ~80% of Roblox's employees are dedicated to maintaining, improving, and expanding the platform. The company is constantly improving the ways in which the Roblox platform supports shared experiences, ranging from how these experiences are built by an engaged community of developers to how they are enjoyed and safely accessed by users across the globe.</p>\n<p>According to Roblox's&nbsp;S-1 filing, the Roblox platform is differentiated through a number of key characteristics, which are mentioned below (the following are quoted from the company's S-1 linked just a moment ago):</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Identity:All users have unique identities in the form of avatars that allow them to express themselves as whoever or whatever they want to be. These avatars are portable across experiences.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Friends: Users interact with friends, some of whom they know in the real world, and others who they meet on Roblox.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Immersive</i>\n <i><b>:</b></i>\n <i>The experiences on Roblox are 3D and immersive. As we continue to improve the Roblox Platform, these experiences will become increasingly engaging and indistinguishable from the real world.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Anywhere: Users, developers, and creators on Roblox are from all over the world, including North America, Europe, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. In 2019, we entered into a joint venture agreement with Songhua River Investment Limited, or Songhua, an affiliate of Tencent, to operate a Chinese version of the Roblox Platform that will be operated and published in China by Tencent under the name “Luobulesi.” Further, as of December 31, 2020, the Roblox Client operates on iOS, Android, PC, Mac, and Xbox, and supports VR experiences on PC using Oculus Rift and HTC Vive headsets.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Low Friction: It is simple to set up an account on Roblox and free for users to enjoy experiences on the platform. Users can quickly traverse between and within experiences either on their own or with their friends. It is also easy for developers to build experiences and then publish them to the Roblox Cloud so that they are then accessible to users on the Roblox Client across all platforms. On behalf of the developers and creators, Roblox also provides critical services such as user acquisition, billing, collections, content moderation, translation, safety, regulatory compliance, and customer support. This makes it easier and simpler for even individual developers and creators and small studios to be successful developers and creators.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Variety of Content: Roblox is a vast and expanding universe of developer and creator-built content. As of Dec. 31, 2020, there were over 20 million experiences on Roblox, and in the year ended Dec. 31, 2020, over 13 million of these were experienced by our community. These ranged from experiences that simulate building and operating a theme park to adopting a pet, scuba diving, creating and playing your own superhero, and more. There also are millions of creator-built virtual items, such as hats, shirts, and pants, with which users can personalize their avatars and 3D virtual items, assets, and sounds that creators can incorporate into experiences. Historically, Roblox has also created virtual items with which users can personalize their avatars. Our focus today and going forward, however, is on user-generated content.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Economy: Roblox has a vibrant economy built on a currency called Robux. Users who choose to purchase Robux can spend the currency on experiences and on items for their avatar. Developers and creators earn Robux by building engaging experiences and compelling items that users want to purchase. Roblox enables developers and creators to convert Robux back into real-world currency.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Safety: Multiple systems are integrated into the Roblox Platform to promote civility and ensure the safety of our users. These systems are designed to enforce real-world laws and are designed to extend beyond minimum regulatory requirements.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The revenue growth at Roblox has been driven primarily by significant investments in technology and two mutually reinforcing network effects: content and social.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d5e601c76dc33b042de56f0d000fecc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"><span>Source:Roblox S-1</span></p>\n<p>Roblox's platform is powered by user-generated content that's built by an engaged community of developers and creators. As Roblox's developers and creators build increasingly high-quality content, more users are attracted to their platform. The more users on the platform, the higher the engagement and the more attractive Roblox becomes to developers and creators. With more users, more Robux (Roblox's virtual currency) is spent on the platform, which in turn incentivizes developers to build more engaging content for users and attracts new developers and content creators to the Roblox developer community.</p>\n<p>The social nature of Roblox's platform makes it special. Roblox's users typically play with friends, and this inspires them to invite more friends to the platform, who, in turn, invite their friends, driving organic growth. A higher number of friends on the platform leads to increased long-term user engagement. Therefore, more and more users join Roblox's platform through word-of-mouth marketing from their existing friends using the platform.</p>\n<p>Now that we have an understanding of Roblox's platform, let's see how Roblox's economy functions, in other words, how Roblox makes money:</p>\n<p>Roblox is powered by exclusive user-generated games that include personalized avatars. Upon joining Roblox, gamers can personalize their avatars by choosing body types, clothes, and other accessories. To do so, the gamers purchase a virtual currency (Robux) from within Roblox's platform. Game developers and content creators earn Robux through microtransactions in their games, such as selling in-game virtual items and engagement-based rewards. Through Roblox's Developer Exchange Program, developers can exchange Robux for real-world currency. This is how money flows from gamers to developers on Roblox's platform.</p>\n<p>The income generated through Roblox empowers game developers (individuals and game studios) to invest in higher-quality content, which attracts more gamers to Roblox. Having enjoyed Roblox, users tend to invite more friends to play on the platform, and this helps game developers attract larger audiences. According to Roblox, many users eventually become developers on the platform, and nearly all Roblox developers started as users. Therefore, Roblox has a robust community and a vibrant economy.</p>\n<p>Roblox supports its developer community by providing tools to create, publish, operate, and monetize content (games and experiences). In 2020, more than 1.25M developers earned Robux, and ~4,300 developers qualified for Roblox's Developer Exchange Program, making them eligible to exchange their earned Robux for real-world currency. To qualify for the Developer Exchange Program, the developers need to meet certain conditions, such as:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Earn at least 100,000 Robux,</p></li>\n <li><p>Verified developer account, and</p></li>\n <li><p>Account must be in good standing.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>In 2020, more than 3300 developers exchanged Robux for real-world currency. According to Roblox's disclosures, 1,250-plus developers earned more than $10K in 2020, whereas 300-plus developers made more than $100K in the same period.</p>\n<p>Generally, Roblox users can create an avatar and explore experiences for free after joining the platform. However, the business model for any given game is decided by its developer. Within these free games, users can spend Robux to purchase in-game enhancements and items such as clothing, gear and emotes, from Roblox's Avatar Marketplace. As you may already know, Roblox retains a portion of every Robux transaction and distributes the rest to developers.</p>\n<p>Important Note: Robux can only be purchased from Roblox at a price set by Roblox and can only be spent within its platform.</p>\n<p><i><b>Key Disclosure from Roblox in relation to Robux:</b></i></p>\n<p>Other than daily and monthly limitations to prevent fraud, there's no cap on the number of Robux that any user or users in the aggregate can purchase. Robux has no monetary or intrinsic value outside of our platform and can only be converted to US dollars through our Developer Exchange Program. We're aware that some users seek to use unauthorized third-party websites to exchange Robux for real-world currency, which is not permitted under our terms of use. We regularly monitor and screen usage of our platform with the aim of identifying and preventing these activities, as well as regularly send cease-and-desist letters to operators of third-party websites offering fraudulent Robux or digital goods offers.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede644886149994d8bf4d76e109903da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"><span>Source:Roblox S-1</span></p>\n<p>Gamers primarily purchase Robux in two ways: 1. One-time purchases or 2. Roblox Premium subscription service. Roblox accepts payments through (Apple’s and Google’s) app stores, credit cards, and debit cards. In 2020, the average price for a Robux was $0.01. Roblox Premium is billed monthly, and this subscription service includes discounts on Robux purchases, exclusive access to certain in-experience benefits, some exclusive and discounted marketplace items, and the ability to buy, sell and trade certain Avatar items. In 2020, Roblox’s bookings (sale of Robux) came in at $1.8B, which means that Roblox’s ~140M users spent an average of $12.85 on the platform (the average revenue per daily active users is much higher at about $60).</p>\n<p>For developers, Robux is considered \"earned\" if and when a developer receives them as payments for a bonafide third-party transaction for virtual goods through the Roblox Platform. Currently, developers can earn Robux via the following mechanisms:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Sale of access to experiences (games) and in-game enhancements,</p></li>\n <li><p>Engagement-based payouts for the amount of time that Roblox Premium subscribers spend in their experiences,</p></li>\n <li><p>Sale of content and tools within the developer community, and</p></li>\n <li><p>Sale of virtual items to gamers through the Avatar Marketplace.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>As Roblox users’ purchase and spend Robux on the platform, developers receive 70% of the Robux spent within their games and 70% of the Robux spent on Roblox's Studio Marketplace items. Content creators receive only 30% of the Robux spent for their Avatar Marketplace items. The earned Robux are deposited into the virtual accounts of the developers and creators, who (if qualified) can convert Robux into U.S. dollars at an exchange rate which is (again) set by Roblox (in its sole discretion) at 1 Robux to $0.0035 (conversion price as of Dec. 31, 2020).</p>\n<p>As you may remember, the average purchase price of a Robux was $0.01 in 2020, and now we know that developers can exchange a Robux for $0.0035 (35% of Robux’s purchase price). Therefore, the unit economics are undoubtedly tilted in favor of Roblox, and the virtual economy built within Roblox’s ecosystem gives the company massive controlling power.</p>\n<p>In 2020, Roblox’s qualified developers (Developer Exchange Program) earned $328.7M, up from $112M in 2019. The growth in developer earnings resulted from a growth in qualified developers, a rise in DAUs, and higher engagement with consumers. As an aside, Roblox’s developers do not always cash out their Robux into real-world currency as they can reinvest their Robux into developer tools available in the Studio Marketplace, promote their games through Roblox’s internal ad network, or spend the Robux as any other Roblox gamer would (on experiences and in-game purchases).</p>\n<p>The Roblox platform combines significant bookings (sale of Robux) (and, by extension, revenue) with strong unit economics to generate massive amounts of free cash flow.</p>\n<p><b>Roblox Had A Great 2020, But What Next?</b></p>\n<p>In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic boosted the mobile gaming industry as people (kids, to be precise) stayed home during lockdowns. Roblox's social gaming platform saw an influx of new users, and bookings shot up to over $2B. As you can see, Roblox's revenues grew by 81% y/y to $923M last year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc0cfffc9c8d80819d91a250992a9898\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"211\"><span>Source:Roblox S-1</span></p>\n<p>The rapid revenue growth is attributable to an increase in numbers of active users and higher user engagement (and spending). Roblox's DAUs went up from 19M to 37M within a year, while average bookings per DAU shot up to $17.30 from $12.37. For Q4, total hours engaged came in at 8.4B hours, a figure that represented substantial growth on a y/y basis; however, it also represented a q/q decline.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177a566cf075069e89d034c2be758743\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"97\"><span>Source:Roblox S-1</span></p>\n<p>Although Roblox's operations continue to lose money, the company is actually generating massive amounts of free cash flow. The bookings made on Roblox's platform convert to revenue over time as in-game virtual goods are consumed or amortized (in accordance with the average life of the consumer).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f39e4d22bafd479e902ab3f1665fdc8\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"253\"><span>Source:Roblox S-1</span></p>\n<p>On the back of ultra-strong numbers in 2020, Roblox's public listing seems to be timed to perfection. From a reference price of $45, the stock rallied higher on the direct listing day and has continued to trade up at ~$65-80 range. Here's what Roblox's CEO had to say on the listing:</p>\n<p>Source:Roblox CEO David Baszucki on the company's Wall Street debut</p>\n<p>Roblox's growth numbers for 2020 were mind boggling. However, the expectations for 2021 are lukewarm (and rightly so). With the pandemic fading away, people are returning towards normality, and a reduction in hours spent on gaming is a certainty.</p>\n<p>For 2021, Roblox is expecting DAU growth of just 6%, with flat numbers for hours engaged. Although the company expects revenue to grow by 60% y/y, bookings (closer estimation of Roblox's actual growth) are expected to grow at just 10% y/y.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e3095d76d9eae90689957db0de751e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"><span>Source:Roblox S-1</span></p>\n<p>As bookings growth moderates and the company spends more on R&amp;D to drive future growth, the company's free cash flow is set to decline in 2021. Therefore, I would not expect fireworks to continue for Roblox's stock over the coming year as it faces tough comps.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d25029806cc3b0dad1e9efd61ffa8c\" tg-width=\"362\" tg-height=\"279\"><span>Source:Roblox S-1</span></p>\n<p>With that being said, Roblox's growth story is far from over. In fact, I can envision a very long growth runway for Roblox (similar to Unity). The growth of interactive, real-time 3D content across numerous industries (like Gaming, Architecture, 3D printing/Intelligent Manufacturing, AR/VR, and many more) will drive the demand for Roblox's platform higher over the coming years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb11e9e1f7a643251919f7571ebe5b76\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\"><span>Source:Newzoo</span></p>\n<p>In 2020, mobile gaming was the fastest-growing industry among all forms of gaming, and it's now believed to be worth $77.2B. And by 2025, it's expected to be worth$150B per annum. Naturally, Roblox will benefit from the rapid growth in mobile gaming. Therefore, Roblox is supported by a very powerful secular growth trend, i.e., the rise of mobile gaming.</p>\n<p>However, the real upside for Roblox's platform will come from the mainstream adoption of AR/VR technology. These markets are set to see explosive growth over upcoming years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33223820bc4aa2314eaa98345d74820c\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Source:DevTeam</span></p>\n<p>Economically viable virtual realities are already all around us in that games are massively profitable and are pseudo-virtual realities. I believe that this market will actually accelerate as wide-scale adopted virtual realities begin popping up over the next decade or two, many of which will likely be built atop platforms such as Roblox and Unity.</p>\n<p>Although I like Unity, I believe that Roblox's platform has greater potential due to the democratization of content generation. Roblox is transforming the world of interactive gaming by changing how people express themselves, play, socialize, learn, and transact together. According to the management, Roblox is currently focused on the following growth initiatives:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Platform Extension: Roblox is continually investing to extend its platform. These investments include high fidelity avatars, 3D spatial audio technology, and additional social features. In the future, Roblox can expand into other areas like entertainment, e-learning (education), and enterprise work communications. For example, developers will be able to create and host virtual meetings, classrooms, concerts, and conferences on the Roblox platform.</p></li>\n <li><p>Age Demographics Expansion: Today, a large chunk of Roblox’s users are kids below the age of 13. However, platform extension will enable developers to build higher quality experiences (games and other content) that are curated to meet the needs of an older age demographic. If Roblox can successfully increase its penetration among other older age categories, then it can easily grow at swashbuckling rates for years to come.</p></li>\n <li><p>International Reach: Roblox already is a global platform. However, there's still significant potential for the company to grow in international markets. Today, almost all of Roblox’s revenue comes from the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom. Hence, there are big markets for Roblox to expand its presence. Roblox is expecting the same organic, word-of-mouth user and developer growth in international markets that the platform has experienced in its primary markets. Additionally, Roblox is making massive investments in technology to enhance growth across the globe. For example, features such as built-in regional compliance and automated language translation can enable Roblox to scale operations in global markets, allowing developers to publish games (or content) in multiple languages and allowing users (speaking different languages) to communicate effectively. Roblox’s greatest international opportunity today is China, and the company is addressing this opportunity through a joint venture with Songhua (an affiliate of Tencent, which is one of the leading internet companies in China).</p></li>\n <li><p>Monetization: Roblox believes that its platform has massive monetization potential. To improve monetization, Roblox is actively working with the developer community. Furthermore, Roblox is taking up new strategic initiatives such as the Roblox Premium subscription service to enhance retention of paying users and conversion of free users to paying users. Finally, Roblox is working with leading brands (like Warner Bros, NFL, Netflix, Marvel, WWE, and FC Barcelona) to build unique marketing opportunities on the Roblox Platform through branded content.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Hence, Roblox will likely resume robust bookings growth after the projected slowdown in 2021. As you may know, Roblox competes for both users, developers, and creators. Roblox competes to attract and retain its users' attention on the basis of content and user experiences. Therefore, Roblox competes for users and their engagement hours with global technology leaders such as Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Tencent, global entertainment companies such as Disney, Comcast, and ViacomCBS, global gaming companies such as Electronic Arts, Activision Blizzard, Take-Two, Unity, Valve, and Zynga, online content platforms including Spotify, Netflix, and YouTube, as well as social platforms such as Facebook, Snap, and Pinterest.</p>\n<p>For now, Roblox is out-competing its rivals due to many factors such as personalization of user experience, content variety, and social features. However, Roblox is heavily reliant on developers for the content that leads to the creation and maintenance of user engagement on its platform. Hence, Roblox has to compete with other platforms like Unity to attract and retain developers. Therefore, Roblox has to provide advanced tools needed to build, publish, operate, and monetize content (more efficiently and more lucratively than its rivals).</p>\n<p>Hence, Roblox directly competes for developers, creators, and engineering talent with gaming platforms (such as Epic Games, Unity, and Valve Corporation) that provide developers and creators the ability to create or distribute interactive content. I believe Roblox's comprehensive offering to build, publish, and operate experiences on its platform, free and easy-to-use technology, broad user reach, economic rewards system, brand, reputation for innovation, developer-centric culture, and Roblox's vision differentiates the company from its rivals.</p>\n<p>Now, let's find the fair value and expected returns for Roblox.</p>\n<p><b>Fair Value and Expected Return</b></p>\n<p>Roblox's bookings are the true reflection of its business, and so we will be analyzing the company using its bookings and not its revenue. In this case, the potential free cash flow margin is also based on bookings.</p>\n<p>Assumptions:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Forward 12-month bookings [A]</p></td>\n   <td><p>$2000 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p></td>\n   <td><p>30%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Average fully-diluted shares outstanding [C]</p></td>\n   <td><p>~650 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p></td>\n   <td><p>$0.923</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free cash flow per share growth rate (conservative estimate)</p></td>\n   <td><p>25%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Terminal growth rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Years of elevated growth</p></td>\n   <td><p>10</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Total years to stimulate</p></td>\n   <td><p>100</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p></td>\n   <td><p>9.8%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Results:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd75274e4a1451cb432b96e0a8cfafb\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p>According to my estimation, Roblox's fair value is ~$58, i.e., it's trading at a premium of ~20%. In this market, high-growth tech stocks have been hammered, and there are great deals out there. And so buying Roblox at a premium doesn't make a lot of sense.</p>\n<p>To determine the expected returns, our model calculates a projected FCF per share value (year-10) and multiplies it with an assumed Price to FCF multiple (35x here), thereby generating a 2031 price target. Using this price target, the model generates an expected CAGR return for a ten-year investment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/345f634512883a157361c590884202ee\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p>\n<p>As you can see above, Roblox's share price could grow from ~$70 to ~$240 (~3.5x) at a CAGR of ~13.15% over the next decade. Since the expected return is lower than BTM's investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Robloxa modest buy to hold at $70.</p>\n<p>At such a large market cap, the company will require a few years for growth to catch up with its current valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Let's conclude our discussion with a BTM Crucial Characteristics Check for Roblox:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Crucial Characteristic</p></td>\n   <td><p>Notes</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Visionary Founder/CEO</p></td>\n   <td><p>David Baszucki (co-founder of Roblox) is a visionary technologist who has led Roblox as its CEO since its launch in 2006. Over the last five years, Roblox's popularity has exploded. However, David and his team are aggressively reinvesting in the Roblox platform (especially in engineering) to drive the next leg of growth for the company. Roblox's vision is to become a platform where billions of people share experiences (not just gaming) on a daily basis.</p><p>David is now 58, so we might have his leadership only for a few more years. Furthermore, all other C-suite executives (barring one or two) at Roblox are also well into their 50s. Therefore, I expect significant management changes at Roblox over the next decade. With that being said, I believe the Roblox platform is incredibly powerful, and the company's business model is so robust that even a chimp can run it successfully.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Proprietary Tech</p></td>\n   <td><p>Roblox's platform (Client, Studio, and Cloud) is powered by highly proprietary technology built over the last three decades. On any given day, more than 32M people use Roblox (DAUs) to connect via play.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Network Effects</p></td>\n   <td><p>The social component built into Roblox allows users to invite their friends and family to play with them and share experiences on the platform. A higher number of users attracts more developers to Roblox, which leads to more games (better content by variety and quality). These network effects remain the primary driver of Roblox's tremendous growth.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Powerful Secular Growth Trend</p></td>\n   <td><p>The growth of interactive, real-time 3D content across numerous industries (like Gaming, AR/VR, Architecture, 3D printing/Intelligent Manufacturing, etc.) is a powerful secular growth driver for Roblox.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Sounds Financials</p></td>\n   <td><p>In 2020, Roblox reported mind-boggling numbers in terms of revenue (~$923M, up ~82% y/y), bookings (~$1.8B, up ~181% y/y), and free cash flow (~$411M). However, the company expects stagnation in bookings in 2021 as the pandemic boost to gaming disappears. Roblox is already a free cash flow generative business, and the company has $800M+ on its balance sheet. Therefore, a direct listing made sense.</p><p>With 650M fully-diluted shares outstanding, Roblox's numbers fall short relative to its market cap. The stock is currently trading at a premium of 20% to its fair value, and its expected CAGR return of 13% falls below our investment hurdle rate.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Branding</p></td>\n   <td><p>Roblox is a global platform that has 130M Users (32.6M Daily Active Users). The Roblox platform gives individuals a strong sense of community and belonging through the rich, immersive co-experiences it provides. Roblox's growth is entirely organic (word-of-mouth), and this shows how the brand is truly loved by its customers.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>International Expansion</p></td>\n   <td><p>Roblox is available globally; however, it has significant room to expand in underpenetrated geographies such as Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The joint venture with Tencent to bring Roblox to China will probably be the biggest growth driver for the company within the next few years.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Roblox satisfies almost all of BTM's investment criteria, but at a market cap of $45B+, the valuation looks stretched. We do not shy away from paying a premium for a high-quality business if the expected return exceeds our hurdle rate; however, the expected return for Roblox is only 13% after the massive bounce in its price after going public.</p>\n<p>In recent years, direct listings (like Spotify(NYSE:SPOT)and Slack(NYSE:WORK)) have failed to generate massive performance in their first year as public companies and I expect Roblox to follow suit. The company's guidance for 2021 points to stagnation in bookings as the mobile gaming frenzy of 2020 fades away along with the pandemic. Therefore, I think we can wait for a better entry point on Roblox, which would be around its direct listing price of $45.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Roblox a hold to modest buy at $70.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading. Please share your thoughts, questions, and/or concerns in the comments section.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox: Building The Metaverse, But For Whom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox: Building The Metaverse, But For Whom?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 15:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430330-roblox-building-the-metaverse-but-for-whom><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nRoblox is effectively the YouTube of game development and game consumption.\nGame creators, who are often just average people with little in the way of coding skills, can build games on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430330-roblox-building-the-metaverse-but-for-whom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430330-roblox-building-the-metaverse-but-for-whom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1170860218","content_text":"Summary\n\nRoblox is effectively the YouTube of game development and game consumption.\nGame creators, who are often just average people with little in the way of coding skills, can build games on the platform and sell those games to users of the platform.\nThe platform has something of its own economy, in which Robux are used as currency to purchase games and for micro-purchases within those games.\nHistorically, a very young demographic has found the platform appealing, leading to questions about its ability to evolve upstream and create a true metaverse.\nRoblox has rapidly grown, and in this note, we provide a very deep and comprehensive exploration of the platform. Ultimately, we rate the company a modest buy.\n\nPhoto by Ian Tuttle/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nRoblox (RBLX) is a social gaming marketplace platform that connects gamers and developers. Through its global community of 8 million-plus developers, Roblox provides immersive gaming experiences that are shared by millions of gamers. In 2020, mobile gaming platforms like Roblox saw explosive growth in revenue as users flocked to these platforms during coronavirus-enforced lockdowns. A year of bookings stagnation awaits Roblox as demand for mobile gaming normalizes. However, AR/VR is just getting started, and the company has a long growth runway due to the large size of its TAM. Roblox is a free cash flow generation machine, as we will learn in this article, but the current valuation is a little too steep considering the weak guidance for 2021.\nHere's our investment thesis for Roblox:\n\nRoblox is a platform that enables users to enjoy millions of immersive 3D experiences (primarily games). Like YouTube, Roblox's content is user generated. Today, Roblox has more than 32M daily active users and 8M+ developers on its platform.\nRight from its inception in 2006, Roblox has been led by its visionary founder - David Baszucki. His vision for social gaming and shared virtual experiences is the driving force behind the company's admirable success.\nRoblox is a highly profitable business that's growing like a weed at scale. In 2020, Roblox's business was boosted by the coronavirus pandemic as mobile gaming saw exponential growth. However, the rise in mobile gaming is a secular growth trend. Furthermore, AR/VR technology is set to go mainstream over the coming years, which will likely help Roblox drive future revenue growth.\nThe Roblox platform is powered by advanced proprietary technology. Developers create content using Roblox Studio, and consumers (gamers) access this content through Roblox Client (interface to 3D digital worlds). Money is made through the sale of Roblox's virtual currency - Robux, which players use to make in-game purchases.\nFor 2021, Roblox is expecting revenue to grow from $923M to ~$1450M. However, the bookings are projected to rise by just 10% year-over-year (near-stagnation), and free cash flow is set to decline too. The company is well capitalized, and it's already free cash flow generative, so I do not foresee any significant dilutionary events for Roblox.\nDuring the recent correction in high-growth tech stocks, Roblox has surprisingly held on to its IPO bounce. There are many great deals out there in the market right now. However, Roblox is not one of them. The stock is trading at a premium of 20% to its fair value. Since the expected returns for Roblox is less than BTM's investment hurdle rate, I rate it hold at $70.\nRoblox is a great company, which I would buy on dips. At BTM, we will initiate a starter position below $60 (if we get such an opportunity). For now, Roblox is being added to our primary portfolio as a hold.\n\nIn today's article, we will study Roblox's business in detail, analyze its financials, and determine its fair value.\nIntroducing Roblox\nRoblox is a social gaming platform where an average of 37.1 million people from around the world come to play games with friends on a daily basis. While on Roblox, users can play, learn, explore, and communicate in user-generated virtual realities (games with 3D digital worlds) created by Roblox's community of 8M+ game developers. Roblox terms this emerging category as \"human co-experience\", which it considers to be the new form of social interaction (and this idea was envisioned by Roblox way back in 2004).\nThe Roblox platform is powered by user-generated content (like YouTube (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)) and draws inspiration from gaming, entertainment, social media, and even toys. This emerging category is also referred to as the metaverse - a term often used to describe the concept of persistent, shared, 3D virtual spaces in a virtual universe. I discussed this concept in a note entitled, \"Introducing President Mark Zuckerberg.\"\nThe idea of a metaverse has been written about by futurists and science fiction authors for over 30 years. With the advent of increasingly powerful consumer computing devices, cloud computing, and high bandwidth internet connections, the concept of the metaverse is materializing.\nThe Roblox human co-experience platform serves as the underlying technology and infrastructure that supports shared experiences for millions of users, and it consists of the Roblox Client, the Roblox Studio, and the Roblox Cloud.\n\nRoblox Client- The application that allows users to explore 3D digital worlds.\nRoblox Studio- The toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences and other content accessed with the Roblox Client.\nRoblox Cloud- The services and infrastructure that power the human co-experience platform.\n\nRoblox's mission is to build a human co-experience platform that enables shared experiences among billions of users. Since its inception, Roblox has invested heavily in building the Roblox platform, and ~80% of Roblox's employees are dedicated to maintaining, improving, and expanding the platform. The company is constantly improving the ways in which the Roblox platform supports shared experiences, ranging from how these experiences are built by an engaged community of developers to how they are enjoyed and safely accessed by users across the globe.\nAccording to Roblox's S-1 filing, the Roblox platform is differentiated through a number of key characteristics, which are mentioned below (the following are quoted from the company's S-1 linked just a moment ago):\n\nIdentity:All users have unique identities in the form of avatars that allow them to express themselves as whoever or whatever they want to be. These avatars are portable across experiences.\n\n\nFriends: Users interact with friends, some of whom they know in the real world, and others who they meet on Roblox.\n\n\nImmersive\n:\nThe experiences on Roblox are 3D and immersive. As we continue to improve the Roblox Platform, these experiences will become increasingly engaging and indistinguishable from the real world.\n\n\nAnywhere: Users, developers, and creators on Roblox are from all over the world, including North America, Europe, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. In 2019, we entered into a joint venture agreement with Songhua River Investment Limited, or Songhua, an affiliate of Tencent, to operate a Chinese version of the Roblox Platform that will be operated and published in China by Tencent under the name “Luobulesi.” Further, as of December 31, 2020, the Roblox Client operates on iOS, Android, PC, Mac, and Xbox, and supports VR experiences on PC using Oculus Rift and HTC Vive headsets.\n\n\nLow Friction: It is simple to set up an account on Roblox and free for users to enjoy experiences on the platform. Users can quickly traverse between and within experiences either on their own or with their friends. It is also easy for developers to build experiences and then publish them to the Roblox Cloud so that they are then accessible to users on the Roblox Client across all platforms. On behalf of the developers and creators, Roblox also provides critical services such as user acquisition, billing, collections, content moderation, translation, safety, regulatory compliance, and customer support. This makes it easier and simpler for even individual developers and creators and small studios to be successful developers and creators.\n\n\nVariety of Content: Roblox is a vast and expanding universe of developer and creator-built content. As of Dec. 31, 2020, there were over 20 million experiences on Roblox, and in the year ended Dec. 31, 2020, over 13 million of these were experienced by our community. These ranged from experiences that simulate building and operating a theme park to adopting a pet, scuba diving, creating and playing your own superhero, and more. There also are millions of creator-built virtual items, such as hats, shirts, and pants, with which users can personalize their avatars and 3D virtual items, assets, and sounds that creators can incorporate into experiences. Historically, Roblox has also created virtual items with which users can personalize their avatars. Our focus today and going forward, however, is on user-generated content.\n\n\nEconomy: Roblox has a vibrant economy built on a currency called Robux. Users who choose to purchase Robux can spend the currency on experiences and on items for their avatar. Developers and creators earn Robux by building engaging experiences and compelling items that users want to purchase. Roblox enables developers and creators to convert Robux back into real-world currency.\n\n\nSafety: Multiple systems are integrated into the Roblox Platform to promote civility and ensure the safety of our users. These systems are designed to enforce real-world laws and are designed to extend beyond minimum regulatory requirements.\n\nThe revenue growth at Roblox has been driven primarily by significant investments in technology and two mutually reinforcing network effects: content and social.\nSource:Roblox S-1\nRoblox's platform is powered by user-generated content that's built by an engaged community of developers and creators. As Roblox's developers and creators build increasingly high-quality content, more users are attracted to their platform. The more users on the platform, the higher the engagement and the more attractive Roblox becomes to developers and creators. With more users, more Robux (Roblox's virtual currency) is spent on the platform, which in turn incentivizes developers to build more engaging content for users and attracts new developers and content creators to the Roblox developer community.\nThe social nature of Roblox's platform makes it special. Roblox's users typically play with friends, and this inspires them to invite more friends to the platform, who, in turn, invite their friends, driving organic growth. A higher number of friends on the platform leads to increased long-term user engagement. Therefore, more and more users join Roblox's platform through word-of-mouth marketing from their existing friends using the platform.\nNow that we have an understanding of Roblox's platform, let's see how Roblox's economy functions, in other words, how Roblox makes money:\nRoblox is powered by exclusive user-generated games that include personalized avatars. Upon joining Roblox, gamers can personalize their avatars by choosing body types, clothes, and other accessories. To do so, the gamers purchase a virtual currency (Robux) from within Roblox's platform. Game developers and content creators earn Robux through microtransactions in their games, such as selling in-game virtual items and engagement-based rewards. Through Roblox's Developer Exchange Program, developers can exchange Robux for real-world currency. This is how money flows from gamers to developers on Roblox's platform.\nThe income generated through Roblox empowers game developers (individuals and game studios) to invest in higher-quality content, which attracts more gamers to Roblox. Having enjoyed Roblox, users tend to invite more friends to play on the platform, and this helps game developers attract larger audiences. According to Roblox, many users eventually become developers on the platform, and nearly all Roblox developers started as users. Therefore, Roblox has a robust community and a vibrant economy.\nRoblox supports its developer community by providing tools to create, publish, operate, and monetize content (games and experiences). In 2020, more than 1.25M developers earned Robux, and ~4,300 developers qualified for Roblox's Developer Exchange Program, making them eligible to exchange their earned Robux for real-world currency. To qualify for the Developer Exchange Program, the developers need to meet certain conditions, such as:\n\nEarn at least 100,000 Robux,\nVerified developer account, and\nAccount must be in good standing.\n\nIn 2020, more than 3300 developers exchanged Robux for real-world currency. According to Roblox's disclosures, 1,250-plus developers earned more than $10K in 2020, whereas 300-plus developers made more than $100K in the same period.\nGenerally, Roblox users can create an avatar and explore experiences for free after joining the platform. However, the business model for any given game is decided by its developer. Within these free games, users can spend Robux to purchase in-game enhancements and items such as clothing, gear and emotes, from Roblox's Avatar Marketplace. As you may already know, Roblox retains a portion of every Robux transaction and distributes the rest to developers.\nImportant Note: Robux can only be purchased from Roblox at a price set by Roblox and can only be spent within its platform.\nKey Disclosure from Roblox in relation to Robux:\nOther than daily and monthly limitations to prevent fraud, there's no cap on the number of Robux that any user or users in the aggregate can purchase. Robux has no monetary or intrinsic value outside of our platform and can only be converted to US dollars through our Developer Exchange Program. We're aware that some users seek to use unauthorized third-party websites to exchange Robux for real-world currency, which is not permitted under our terms of use. We regularly monitor and screen usage of our platform with the aim of identifying and preventing these activities, as well as regularly send cease-and-desist letters to operators of third-party websites offering fraudulent Robux or digital goods offers.\nSource:Roblox S-1\nGamers primarily purchase Robux in two ways: 1. One-time purchases or 2. Roblox Premium subscription service. Roblox accepts payments through (Apple’s and Google’s) app stores, credit cards, and debit cards. In 2020, the average price for a Robux was $0.01. Roblox Premium is billed monthly, and this subscription service includes discounts on Robux purchases, exclusive access to certain in-experience benefits, some exclusive and discounted marketplace items, and the ability to buy, sell and trade certain Avatar items. In 2020, Roblox’s bookings (sale of Robux) came in at $1.8B, which means that Roblox’s ~140M users spent an average of $12.85 on the platform (the average revenue per daily active users is much higher at about $60).\nFor developers, Robux is considered \"earned\" if and when a developer receives them as payments for a bonafide third-party transaction for virtual goods through the Roblox Platform. Currently, developers can earn Robux via the following mechanisms:\n\nSale of access to experiences (games) and in-game enhancements,\nEngagement-based payouts for the amount of time that Roblox Premium subscribers spend in their experiences,\nSale of content and tools within the developer community, and\nSale of virtual items to gamers through the Avatar Marketplace.\n\nAs Roblox users’ purchase and spend Robux on the platform, developers receive 70% of the Robux spent within their games and 70% of the Robux spent on Roblox's Studio Marketplace items. Content creators receive only 30% of the Robux spent for their Avatar Marketplace items. The earned Robux are deposited into the virtual accounts of the developers and creators, who (if qualified) can convert Robux into U.S. dollars at an exchange rate which is (again) set by Roblox (in its sole discretion) at 1 Robux to $0.0035 (conversion price as of Dec. 31, 2020).\nAs you may remember, the average purchase price of a Robux was $0.01 in 2020, and now we know that developers can exchange a Robux for $0.0035 (35% of Robux’s purchase price). Therefore, the unit economics are undoubtedly tilted in favor of Roblox, and the virtual economy built within Roblox’s ecosystem gives the company massive controlling power.\nIn 2020, Roblox’s qualified developers (Developer Exchange Program) earned $328.7M, up from $112M in 2019. The growth in developer earnings resulted from a growth in qualified developers, a rise in DAUs, and higher engagement with consumers. As an aside, Roblox’s developers do not always cash out their Robux into real-world currency as they can reinvest their Robux into developer tools available in the Studio Marketplace, promote their games through Roblox’s internal ad network, or spend the Robux as any other Roblox gamer would (on experiences and in-game purchases).\nThe Roblox platform combines significant bookings (sale of Robux) (and, by extension, revenue) with strong unit economics to generate massive amounts of free cash flow.\nRoblox Had A Great 2020, But What Next?\nIn 2020, the coronavirus pandemic boosted the mobile gaming industry as people (kids, to be precise) stayed home during lockdowns. Roblox's social gaming platform saw an influx of new users, and bookings shot up to over $2B. As you can see, Roblox's revenues grew by 81% y/y to $923M last year.\nSource:Roblox S-1\nThe rapid revenue growth is attributable to an increase in numbers of active users and higher user engagement (and spending). Roblox's DAUs went up from 19M to 37M within a year, while average bookings per DAU shot up to $17.30 from $12.37. For Q4, total hours engaged came in at 8.4B hours, a figure that represented substantial growth on a y/y basis; however, it also represented a q/q decline.\nSource:Roblox S-1\nAlthough Roblox's operations continue to lose money, the company is actually generating massive amounts of free cash flow. The bookings made on Roblox's platform convert to revenue over time as in-game virtual goods are consumed or amortized (in accordance with the average life of the consumer).\nSource:Roblox S-1\nOn the back of ultra-strong numbers in 2020, Roblox's public listing seems to be timed to perfection. From a reference price of $45, the stock rallied higher on the direct listing day and has continued to trade up at ~$65-80 range. Here's what Roblox's CEO had to say on the listing:\nSource:Roblox CEO David Baszucki on the company's Wall Street debut\nRoblox's growth numbers for 2020 were mind boggling. However, the expectations for 2021 are lukewarm (and rightly so). With the pandemic fading away, people are returning towards normality, and a reduction in hours spent on gaming is a certainty.\nFor 2021, Roblox is expecting DAU growth of just 6%, with flat numbers for hours engaged. Although the company expects revenue to grow by 60% y/y, bookings (closer estimation of Roblox's actual growth) are expected to grow at just 10% y/y.\nSource:Roblox S-1\nAs bookings growth moderates and the company spends more on R&D to drive future growth, the company's free cash flow is set to decline in 2021. Therefore, I would not expect fireworks to continue for Roblox's stock over the coming year as it faces tough comps.\nSource:Roblox S-1\nWith that being said, Roblox's growth story is far from over. In fact, I can envision a very long growth runway for Roblox (similar to Unity). The growth of interactive, real-time 3D content across numerous industries (like Gaming, Architecture, 3D printing/Intelligent Manufacturing, AR/VR, and many more) will drive the demand for Roblox's platform higher over the coming years.\nSource:Newzoo\nIn 2020, mobile gaming was the fastest-growing industry among all forms of gaming, and it's now believed to be worth $77.2B. And by 2025, it's expected to be worth$150B per annum. Naturally, Roblox will benefit from the rapid growth in mobile gaming. Therefore, Roblox is supported by a very powerful secular growth trend, i.e., the rise of mobile gaming.\nHowever, the real upside for Roblox's platform will come from the mainstream adoption of AR/VR technology. These markets are set to see explosive growth over upcoming years:\nSource:DevTeam\nEconomically viable virtual realities are already all around us in that games are massively profitable and are pseudo-virtual realities. I believe that this market will actually accelerate as wide-scale adopted virtual realities begin popping up over the next decade or two, many of which will likely be built atop platforms such as Roblox and Unity.\nAlthough I like Unity, I believe that Roblox's platform has greater potential due to the democratization of content generation. Roblox is transforming the world of interactive gaming by changing how people express themselves, play, socialize, learn, and transact together. According to the management, Roblox is currently focused on the following growth initiatives:\n\nPlatform Extension: Roblox is continually investing to extend its platform. These investments include high fidelity avatars, 3D spatial audio technology, and additional social features. In the future, Roblox can expand into other areas like entertainment, e-learning (education), and enterprise work communications. For example, developers will be able to create and host virtual meetings, classrooms, concerts, and conferences on the Roblox platform.\nAge Demographics Expansion: Today, a large chunk of Roblox’s users are kids below the age of 13. However, platform extension will enable developers to build higher quality experiences (games and other content) that are curated to meet the needs of an older age demographic. If Roblox can successfully increase its penetration among other older age categories, then it can easily grow at swashbuckling rates for years to come.\nInternational Reach: Roblox already is a global platform. However, there's still significant potential for the company to grow in international markets. Today, almost all of Roblox’s revenue comes from the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom. Hence, there are big markets for Roblox to expand its presence. Roblox is expecting the same organic, word-of-mouth user and developer growth in international markets that the platform has experienced in its primary markets. Additionally, Roblox is making massive investments in technology to enhance growth across the globe. For example, features such as built-in regional compliance and automated language translation can enable Roblox to scale operations in global markets, allowing developers to publish games (or content) in multiple languages and allowing users (speaking different languages) to communicate effectively. Roblox’s greatest international opportunity today is China, and the company is addressing this opportunity through a joint venture with Songhua (an affiliate of Tencent, which is one of the leading internet companies in China).\nMonetization: Roblox believes that its platform has massive monetization potential. To improve monetization, Roblox is actively working with the developer community. Furthermore, Roblox is taking up new strategic initiatives such as the Roblox Premium subscription service to enhance retention of paying users and conversion of free users to paying users. Finally, Roblox is working with leading brands (like Warner Bros, NFL, Netflix, Marvel, WWE, and FC Barcelona) to build unique marketing opportunities on the Roblox Platform through branded content.\n\nHence, Roblox will likely resume robust bookings growth after the projected slowdown in 2021. As you may know, Roblox competes for both users, developers, and creators. Roblox competes to attract and retain its users' attention on the basis of content and user experiences. Therefore, Roblox competes for users and their engagement hours with global technology leaders such as Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Tencent, global entertainment companies such as Disney, Comcast, and ViacomCBS, global gaming companies such as Electronic Arts, Activision Blizzard, Take-Two, Unity, Valve, and Zynga, online content platforms including Spotify, Netflix, and YouTube, as well as social platforms such as Facebook, Snap, and Pinterest.\nFor now, Roblox is out-competing its rivals due to many factors such as personalization of user experience, content variety, and social features. However, Roblox is heavily reliant on developers for the content that leads to the creation and maintenance of user engagement on its platform. Hence, Roblox has to compete with other platforms like Unity to attract and retain developers. Therefore, Roblox has to provide advanced tools needed to build, publish, operate, and monetize content (more efficiently and more lucratively than its rivals).\nHence, Roblox directly competes for developers, creators, and engineering talent with gaming platforms (such as Epic Games, Unity, and Valve Corporation) that provide developers and creators the ability to create or distribute interactive content. I believe Roblox's comprehensive offering to build, publish, and operate experiences on its platform, free and easy-to-use technology, broad user reach, economic rewards system, brand, reputation for innovation, developer-centric culture, and Roblox's vision differentiates the company from its rivals.\nNow, let's find the fair value and expected returns for Roblox.\nFair Value and Expected Return\nRoblox's bookings are the true reflection of its business, and so we will be analyzing the company using its bookings and not its revenue. In this case, the potential free cash flow margin is also based on bookings.\nAssumptions:\n\n\n\nForward 12-month bookings [A]\n$2000 million\n\n\nPotential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]\n30%\n\n\nAverage fully-diluted shares outstanding [C]\n~650 million\n\n\nFree cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]\n$0.923\n\n\nFree cash flow per share growth rate (conservative estimate)\n25%\n\n\nTerminal growth rate\n3%\n\n\nYears of elevated growth\n10\n\n\nTotal years to stimulate\n100\n\n\nDiscount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")\n9.8%\n\n\n\nResults:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAccording to my estimation, Roblox's fair value is ~$58, i.e., it's trading at a premium of ~20%. In this market, high-growth tech stocks have been hammered, and there are great deals out there. And so buying Roblox at a premium doesn't make a lot of sense.\nTo determine the expected returns, our model calculates a projected FCF per share value (year-10) and multiplies it with an assumed Price to FCF multiple (35x here), thereby generating a 2031 price target. Using this price target, the model generates an expected CAGR return for a ten-year investment.\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see above, Roblox's share price could grow from ~$70 to ~$240 (~3.5x) at a CAGR of ~13.15% over the next decade. Since the expected return is lower than BTM's investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Robloxa modest buy to hold at $70.\nAt such a large market cap, the company will require a few years for growth to catch up with its current valuation.\nConcluding Thoughts\nLet's conclude our discussion with a BTM Crucial Characteristics Check for Roblox:\n\n\n\nCrucial Characteristic\nNotes\n\n\nVisionary Founder/CEO\nDavid Baszucki (co-founder of Roblox) is a visionary technologist who has led Roblox as its CEO since its launch in 2006. Over the last five years, Roblox's popularity has exploded. However, David and his team are aggressively reinvesting in the Roblox platform (especially in engineering) to drive the next leg of growth for the company. Roblox's vision is to become a platform where billions of people share experiences (not just gaming) on a daily basis.David is now 58, so we might have his leadership only for a few more years. Furthermore, all other C-suite executives (barring one or two) at Roblox are also well into their 50s. Therefore, I expect significant management changes at Roblox over the next decade. With that being said, I believe the Roblox platform is incredibly powerful, and the company's business model is so robust that even a chimp can run it successfully.\n\n\nProprietary Tech\nRoblox's platform (Client, Studio, and Cloud) is powered by highly proprietary technology built over the last three decades. On any given day, more than 32M people use Roblox (DAUs) to connect via play.\n\n\nNetwork Effects\nThe social component built into Roblox allows users to invite their friends and family to play with them and share experiences on the platform. A higher number of users attracts more developers to Roblox, which leads to more games (better content by variety and quality). These network effects remain the primary driver of Roblox's tremendous growth.\n\n\nPowerful Secular Growth Trend\nThe growth of interactive, real-time 3D content across numerous industries (like Gaming, AR/VR, Architecture, 3D printing/Intelligent Manufacturing, etc.) is a powerful secular growth driver for Roblox.\n\n\nSounds Financials\nIn 2020, Roblox reported mind-boggling numbers in terms of revenue (~$923M, up ~82% y/y), bookings (~$1.8B, up ~181% y/y), and free cash flow (~$411M). However, the company expects stagnation in bookings in 2021 as the pandemic boost to gaming disappears. Roblox is already a free cash flow generative business, and the company has $800M+ on its balance sheet. Therefore, a direct listing made sense.With 650M fully-diluted shares outstanding, Roblox's numbers fall short relative to its market cap. The stock is currently trading at a premium of 20% to its fair value, and its expected CAGR return of 13% falls below our investment hurdle rate.\n\n\nBranding\nRoblox is a global platform that has 130M Users (32.6M Daily Active Users). The Roblox platform gives individuals a strong sense of community and belonging through the rich, immersive co-experiences it provides. Roblox's growth is entirely organic (word-of-mouth), and this shows how the brand is truly loved by its customers.\n\n\nInternational Expansion\nRoblox is available globally; however, it has significant room to expand in underpenetrated geographies such as Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The joint venture with Tencent to bring Roblox to China will probably be the biggest growth driver for the company within the next few years.\n\n\n\nRoblox satisfies almost all of BTM's investment criteria, but at a market cap of $45B+, the valuation looks stretched. We do not shy away from paying a premium for a high-quality business if the expected return exceeds our hurdle rate; however, the expected return for Roblox is only 13% after the massive bounce in its price after going public.\nIn recent years, direct listings (like Spotify(NYSE:SPOT)and Slack(NYSE:WORK)) have failed to generate massive performance in their first year as public companies and I expect Roblox to follow suit. The company's guidance for 2021 points to stagnation in bookings as the mobile gaming frenzy of 2020 fades away along with the pandemic. Therefore, I think we can wait for a better entry point on Roblox, which would be around its direct listing price of $45.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Roblox a hold to modest buy at $70.\nThanks for reading. Please share your thoughts, questions, and/or concerns in the comments section.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182877959,"gmtCreate":1623565673071,"gmtModify":1704206340983,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182877959","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198311684?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p>\n<p>Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p>\n<p>Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p>\n<p>Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p>\n<p>Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p>\n<p>An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p>\n<p>Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p>\n<p>The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p>\n<p>Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182875703,"gmtCreate":1623565638102,"gmtModify":1704206339164,"author":{"id":"3576156131829756","authorId":"3576156131829756","name":"Thiogui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576156131829756","idStr":"3576156131829756"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182875703","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118102755?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p>\n<p>The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p>\n<p>The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p>\n<p>What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Rising yields</b></p>\n<p>Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p>\n<p>“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p>\n<p>That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p>\n<p><b>Fed tapering</b></p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p>\n<p>“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p>\n<p>“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p>\n<p>He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p>\n<p>As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p>\n<p><b>How to prepare</b></p>\n<p>When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p>\n<p>The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p>\n<p>Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p>\n<p>“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p>\n<p>Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p>\n<p><b>Your five-point game plan</b></p>\n<p><b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p>\n<p>When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p>\n<p>“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p>\n<p><b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p>\n<p>Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p>I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p>\n<p>If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p>\n<p>“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p>\n<p>Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p><b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p>\n<p>Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p>\n<p><b>5. Go with financials</b></p>\n<p>Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p>\n<p>The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}