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2021-03-19
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2022-03-09
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Chongwei168
2022-12-17
$富途控股(FUTU)$
Chongwei168
2022-10-03
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
Chongwei168
2022-04-24
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Western Macro: The Fed's Policy Anchor and the Market Bottom of A Shares
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2022-12-14
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Chongwei168
2022-11-27
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2022-12-29
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2022-12-28
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$富途控股(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928154747","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912862894,"gmtCreate":1664801076418,"gmtModify":1676537510159,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576277699879024","authorIdStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912862894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085780337,"gmtCreate":1650765910938,"gmtModify":1676534788713,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576277699879024","authorIdStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085780337","repostId":"1115965208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115965208","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650764935,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115965208?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-24 09:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Western Macro: The Fed's Policy Anchor and the Market Bottom of A Shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115965208","media":"静观金融","summary":"为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why is the sharp interest rate hike in the Volcker era not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>1) Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to combat high inflation because it catered to political demands.</b>The negative correlation between approval ratings and inflation of four U.S. presidents in the 1970s and 1980s is extremely obvious. Under high inflation, President Ford's failure to *, 1979<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president's approval rating also dropped below 30%. To reverse the decline,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president appointed Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately, Volcker took office just before the US election and his hawkish approach caused the US recession in 1980, so it failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, Volcker, while nominated by his predecessor, still lives up to his political commitment to cracking down on high inflation.</p><p><b>2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy objective? The Fed also takes into account both the economy and employment.</b>After Volcker took office, from April to July, 1980, the Federal Reserve interrupted the rate hike and cut interest rates for a short time. During this period, the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the United States turned negative and the unemployment rate accelerated. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will balance economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><b>Will the prolonged stagflation of the 1970s return? The inflection point of U.S. inflation may have appeared. 1）</b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the shift of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce at present.<b>2）</b>The current round of inflation in the United States may have peaked (close to) in March.</p><p><b>The Switching of the Fed's Monetary Policy Anchor in the Powell Era: \"Fiscal\" before September 2021; September 2021 to date is \"high inflation\"; At some point during the year (expected from the end of Q2 to Q3), it may turn to hedge \"U.S. stock market decline + economic slowdown\".</b></p><p><b>1) The Fed's policy anchor before September 2021 was fiscal.</b>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always said that high inflation was temporary and would not last, because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. March 11, 2021 · The Biden administration implemented the third round of post-pandemic fiscal transfer payment policies. In the following months, the United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level, and then the Federal Reserve could not Taper and rate hike. Under fiscal constraints, the Fed cannot acknowledge the persistence of high inflation.</p><p><b>2) Switching of Fed policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation.</b>In the middle and late Q3 of 2021, the pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance eased, while President Biden's approval rating plummeted as inflation rose. This caused the Federal Reserve's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury to reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation.</p><p><b>3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you need rate hike 50BP in May?</b>This just shows that the Fed doesn't have much room for rate hike, and then it can't raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting without inflation peaking. After the US CPI and other inflation indicators are released in April-May and prove the fact that inflation has cooled down, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself but also re-ease the tight monetary pressure.</p><p><b>4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle will probably stop within the year.</b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plunge, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the US economy will slow down in the second half of the year, and the risk of economic recession next year will be higher; On the other hand, at present, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the adjustment pressure is intensifying. Furthermore, it is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</p><p><b>Current: Fed accelerates tightening; The depreciation of RMB exchange rate; A shares look for the bottom of the market.</b>U.S. stocks plunged on the same day that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation. Behind the two seemingly unrelated types of assets, the same macro logic is reflected: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve.<b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and the U.S. stock market accelerates its decline and induces liquidity shocks after the FOMC Federal Reserve's official shrinking balance sheet in May, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike ahead of schedule and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once so, the market bottom of A shares will also approach.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Why is the sharp interest rate hike in Volcker era not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>(1) Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to combat high inflation because the approach appealed to political demands</b></p><p>Many market participants believe that the Volcker era curbed high inflation by sharply raising interest rates because the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was more independent. However, we believe that the reason why Volcker raised the Federal Funds rate from about 10% to 20% in his early days in office (1979-1980), and then raised the benchmark interest rate twice to about 22% again in 1981 after briefly lowering the benchmark interest rate in May-August 1980 is because of \"political correctness\". The simple reason is that the chairman of the Federal Reserve is chosen by the president's nomination.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the negative correlation between the term approval rating of four U.S. presidents in 1970s and 1980s and inflation is extremely obvious. Not only is it normal to open higher and go lower, but as long as the term inflation is high, its approval rating is bound to decline from a cliff. Even the Watergate scandal seems to have hit Nixon's approval ratings less than inflation. Under high inflation, President Ford failed to *, and President Carter's approval rating fell below 30% in 1979. In order to reverse the decline in his approval ratings, President Carter delivered his famous speech \"Crisis of Confidence\" on July 15, 1979, and subsequently replaced all 13 members of his cabinet and appointed Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve. In other words, Volcker was appointed to take over the Fed at the crisis to suppress high inflation and boost the government's credibility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1d3666476d64ca778c9f8441af576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb382c78f60f93df9023fdebb8d2c64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Unfortunately, Carter did not have much time. When he began to build momentum for the general election in early 1980, inflation in the United States was still rising, and his approval ratings were depressed again. In the 1980 US election, Reagan promised to curb high inflation and thus won a resounding victory, and the continued substantial rate hike of the Federal Reserve led by Volcker after Reagan came to power was a symbol of Reagan's campaign promise. Although Volcker was nominated by Carter, Volcker came into office close to the U.S. election and his hawkish approach caused the U.S. economic recession in 1980, so it failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, Volcker, while nominated by his predecessor, still lives up to his political commitment to cracking down on high inflation. Volcker's tight monetary policy also led to the US economic recession in 1982 and caused Reagan's approval rating to plummet here. However, in 1983, the US economy stabilized and recovered and inflation dropped to a low level, and Reagan immediately regained popular support.</p><p><b>(2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy goal? The Fed also takes into account the economy and employment</b></p><p>After Volcker took office, from April to July, 1980, the Federal Reserve interrupted the rate hike and adopted a short interest rate cut. Combined with Figure 3-6, it can be seen that during the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the United States turned negative and the unemployment rate accelerated. When the economy picked up and the unemployment rate dropped, the Federal Reserve restarted its rate hike. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will balance economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804c75df17ea8b944f487c1ccb73fb8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91cec001581b7decb53a046cc59c175f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dec7349376fd42edcd265e9fa950814\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499be0b343d81e9e9321b62e57d99dee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Will the long-term stagflation of the 1970s reappear? U.S. inflation inflection point may have appeared</b></p><p><b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the shift of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce at present.</b>First, the newborns born during the 1970-1980 baby boom turned into a \"demographic dividend\" in the United States, and the rise of these young people stimulated consumption and real estate demand in the United States. In addition, from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, the middle class in the United States accounted for more than 60% (now it is less than 50%), which has further boosted American consumption. But high costs led to a massive shift in U.S. manufacturing in the 1970s. Together with the supply shocks caused by the two oil crises and the depreciation of the dollar, the United States has experienced long-term stagflation. At present, the population structure and the proportion of middle class in the United States are not the same as those in the 1970s. In addition, Biden's emerging industry strategy will also make the proportion of manufacturing rebound, and the United States does not have the foundation for sustained high inflation or even stagflation. For a detailed analysis, please refer to the report \"Inflation Turning Point in the United States: Q1 early; Q2 late\" on February 4th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7a48a1385223cc866508b3e2fb0fa9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. inflation may have peaked (near) in March.</b>The high inflation in the United States since Q4 last year is mainly driven by three sub-items: energy, used cars and housing. In March, the U.S. CPI reached a new high of 8.5% year-on-year, but the main reason is still the above three points. However, the price increase factor in CPI in March is concentrated on the energy sub-item. As long as the situation in Russia and Ukraine is stable, this factor will be reversed in April. The contribution of the sub-item of used cars (transportation products, excluding automobile fuel) to the CPI in March has turned negative, indicating that the structural inflation contradiction caused by the epidemic has been significantly alleviated. As the base rises, the year-on-year contribution of the sub-item where used cars are located to the CPI in Q2 will also weaken significantly. The year-on-year and month-on-month contribution of residential inflation factors in March did not increase compared with February, indicating that this sub-item was relatively stable. As the growth rate of housing prices in the United States peaked from May to July last year, the CPI residential sub-item at the end of Q2 this year is also expected to drop from a high level. Overall, the U.S. CPI may have peaked (close to) in March year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6908ea3d8a76e01c9e477a5c231ec6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, the switching of the Fed's monetary policy anchor in the Powell era</b></p><p><b>(1) Did the Fed misjudge high inflation?</b></p><p>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always said that high inflation was temporary and would not last, so it failed to tighten the currency in time. The market generally believed that this was a policy mistake of the Federal Reserve due to misjudging the inflation situation. But we think the reason why the Fed denied the persistence of high inflation was because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. March 11, 2021 · The Biden administration implemented the third round of post-pandemic fiscal transfer payment policies. The United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level in the following months. After the financial crisis and post-epidemic, the Fed's QE operation is a means of monetizing fiscal deficit, with the intention of helping the U.S. Treasury to reduce the cost of debt expenditure through bond purchase. Furthermore, in the two quarters just after the third round of fiscal transfer payments landed, the Federal Reserve still couldn't Taper, and thus couldn't rate hike. The problem that can't be solved is not a problem. Under the background of unable to tighten the money, the Federal Reserve can't acknowledge the persistence of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af96f7d265dd21f6f3317c70bf43a52d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The switching of the Fed's policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation</b></p><p>The pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance eased in the middle and late Q3 of 2021. At the same time, President Biden's approval rating plummeted as inflation rose. This caused the Federal Reserve's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury to reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation. Combined with the previous article, it can be seen that high inflation has a fatal blow to the president's governing power, so reversing the inflation situation after the fiscal constraints are lifted has become the top priority of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In this context, the Federal Reserve has tapered since Q4 last year, made its first rate hike in March this year, and gave forward guidance to raise interest rates by 50BP in May and start a shrinking balance sheet. Given that inflation has not cooled yet, and Biden's approval rating is still at a term-low level, this also makes the Fed continuously release signals of faster tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe3cc42f798e8fa4c3005237c6e6851\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you need to rate hike 50BP in May?</b></p><p>Speaking on Thursday, Powell praised Volcker for defeating high inflation, showing that the Federal Reserve also has the determination and courage to fight inflation. In addition, Powell also gave forward guidance that the Federal Reserve will rate hike 50BP at the FOMC in May in his speech. Since U.S. inflation is about to peak, why does the Federal Reserve still want FOMC rate hike 50BP in May? We think this just shows that the Fed doesn't have much room for rate hike, and then it can't raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting without inflation peaking. Logically, once the Fed starts a single FOMC rate hike of 50BP, then as long as inflation does not peak, the Fed must maintain the rhythm of the rate hike of 50BP at each interest rate meeting, otherwise it will surrender to high inflation.</p><p>However, as we pointed out in the report \"US Economic Resilience, Resilience and the Possibility of Recession Next Year\", it is highly probable that the US economy will slow down this year and the annual rate of real GDP in Q1 and Q3 next year will turn negative. In addition, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has dropped below the 0 axis. At present, neither the US economy nor the stock market can withstand many rate hike. Therefore, if inflation does not peak, the Fed will not land 50BP rate hike boots at a single interest rate meeting. However, if inflation shows signs of peaking, in order to show its determination to fight inflation, the Fed will instead take more radical rate hike operations. After the US CPI and other inflation indicators are released in April-May and prove the fact that inflation has cooled down, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself but also re-ease the tight monetary pressure.</p><p><b>(4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle is likely to stop within the year</b></p><p>According to the experience since the 1980s, the rate hike will end within 3-6 months after the yields of 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds are inverted. At the beginning of April this year, the yields of 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds were inverted, indicating the possibility of ending the rate hike in Q3. Moreover, once the economy turns worse and there is a risk of recession, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. From September 2007 to January 2008 and from September 1989 to November 1990, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the inflation center moved upward. Another common feature of these two stages is that the economy began to slow down and move towards recession. From Q4, 2018 to Q1, 2019, Powell's policy attitude changed even showed that as long as the U.S. stock market sharply adjusted, the Federal Reserve would terminate the rate hike. That is to say,<b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plunge, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the US economy will slow down in the second half of the year, and the risk of economic recession next year will be higher; On the other hand, at present, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the adjustment pressure is intensifying. Furthermore, it is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1198e106624130a8743c67f62f01c2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve, the depreciation of RMB exchange rate and the market bottom of A shares</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that for the domestic equity market, the meeting of the Financial Committee on March 16th established the policy bottom; Going forward, if the domestic epidemic situation cools down in May and the policy of steady growth is expected to exert its strength simultaneously, the economic bottom in Q2 will also take shape. However, the prospect of a plunge in U.S. stocks may restrict the risk appetite of A shares to some extent, so the market bottom may be formally established after the fall of U.S. stocks and the global liquidity shock.</p><p>We observed that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation on April 22nd, and the three major stock indexes in the United States also plunged on the same day. Behind the two seemingly unrelated types of assets, the same macro logic is reflected: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve. In our report \"RMB Exchange Rate Analysis Framework and Prospects\" on April 23rd, we pointed out that the US dollar is the β of RMB exchange rate; Exports are the alpha of the RMB exchange rate. Under the background of accelerating tightening of US dollar liquidity, the the US Dollar Index will continue to rise in the next 1-2 months or it is a high probability; With the resumption of overseas production and the sudden outbreak of domestic epidemic, the share of exports in Q2 may drop slightly. Assuming that Q2 the US Dollar Index is in the range of 100-102 and China's export share is 15%, the RMB exchange rate may fall in the range of 6.8-7.0.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic in China has not only aggravated the downside risk of the domestic economy, but also constrained the global industrial chain and economic growth. On September 23, 2018, the 25% tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese imports was the catalyst for the collapse of U.S. stocks in Q4 that year. It can be seen that the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are extremely close. Moreover, as shown in Figure 11, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative at present. After FOMC landed 50BP rate hike and shrinking balance sheet boots in May, the global liquidity will tighten the fact, and U.S. stocks will also be under greater pressure. Coupled with the weakening profitability of U.S. stocks in the coming year, the current leverage ratio is on the high side, and then<b>The adjustment range of U.S. stocks this time may be between Q4 of 2018 and Q1 of 2020.</b></p><p><b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and the U.S. stock market accelerates its decline after the FOMC Federal Reserve's official shrinking balance sheet in May and induces liquidity shocks, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike ahead of schedule and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once so, the market bottom of A shares will also approach.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb69e9bbbc87de0fbd9847bb33638080\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>Global pandemic situation exceeded expectations</p><p>China's policy to stabilize growth exceeded expectations</p><p>(3) The Federal Reserve's monetary policy exceeds expectations</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571618842096","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Western Macro: The Fed's Policy Anchor and the Market Bottom of A Shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWestern Macro: The Fed's Policy Anchor and the Market Bottom of A Shares\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">静观金融</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-24 09:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Why is the sharp interest rate hike in the Volcker era not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>1) Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to combat high inflation because it catered to political demands.</b>The negative correlation between approval ratings and inflation of four U.S. presidents in the 1970s and 1980s is extremely obvious. Under high inflation, President Ford's failure to *, 1979<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president's approval rating also dropped below 30%. To reverse the decline,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>The president appointed Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately, Volcker took office just before the US election and his hawkish approach caused the US recession in 1980, so it failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, Volcker, while nominated by his predecessor, still lives up to his political commitment to cracking down on high inflation.</p><p><b>2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy objective? The Fed also takes into account both the economy and employment.</b>After Volcker took office, from April to July, 1980, the Federal Reserve interrupted the rate hike and cut interest rates for a short time. During this period, the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the United States turned negative and the unemployment rate accelerated. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will balance economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><b>Will the prolonged stagflation of the 1970s return? The inflection point of U.S. inflation may have appeared. 1）</b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the shift of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce at present.<b>2）</b>The current round of inflation in the United States may have peaked (close to) in March.</p><p><b>The Switching of the Fed's Monetary Policy Anchor in the Powell Era: \"Fiscal\" before September 2021; September 2021 to date is \"high inflation\"; At some point during the year (expected from the end of Q2 to Q3), it may turn to hedge \"U.S. stock market decline + economic slowdown\".</b></p><p><b>1) The Fed's policy anchor before September 2021 was fiscal.</b>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always said that high inflation was temporary and would not last, because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. March 11, 2021 · The Biden administration implemented the third round of post-pandemic fiscal transfer payment policies. In the following months, the United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level, and then the Federal Reserve could not Taper and rate hike. Under fiscal constraints, the Fed cannot acknowledge the persistence of high inflation.</p><p><b>2) Switching of Fed policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation.</b>In the middle and late Q3 of 2021, the pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance eased, while President Biden's approval rating plummeted as inflation rose. This caused the Federal Reserve's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury to reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation.</p><p><b>3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you need rate hike 50BP in May?</b>This just shows that the Fed doesn't have much room for rate hike, and then it can't raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting without inflation peaking. After the US CPI and other inflation indicators are released in April-May and prove the fact that inflation has cooled down, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself but also re-ease the tight monetary pressure.</p><p><b>4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle will probably stop within the year.</b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plunge, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the US economy will slow down in the second half of the year, and the risk of economic recession next year will be higher; On the other hand, at present, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the adjustment pressure is intensifying. Furthermore, it is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</p><p><b>Current: Fed accelerates tightening; The depreciation of RMB exchange rate; A shares look for the bottom of the market.</b>U.S. stocks plunged on the same day that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation. Behind the two seemingly unrelated types of assets, the same macro logic is reflected: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve.<b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and the U.S. stock market accelerates its decline and induces liquidity shocks after the FOMC Federal Reserve's official shrinking balance sheet in May, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike ahead of schedule and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once so, the market bottom of A shares will also approach.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Why is the sharp interest rate hike in Volcker era not a manifestation of monetary independence?</b></p><p><b>(1) Volcker was able to raise interest rates sharply to combat high inflation because the approach appealed to political demands</b></p><p>Many market participants believe that the Volcker era curbed high inflation by sharply raising interest rates because the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was more independent. However, we believe that the reason why Volcker raised the Federal Funds rate from about 10% to 20% in his early days in office (1979-1980), and then raised the benchmark interest rate twice to about 22% again in 1981 after briefly lowering the benchmark interest rate in May-August 1980 is because of \"political correctness\". The simple reason is that the chairman of the Federal Reserve is chosen by the president's nomination.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the negative correlation between the term approval rating of four U.S. presidents in 1970s and 1980s and inflation is extremely obvious. Not only is it normal to open higher and go lower, but as long as the term inflation is high, its approval rating is bound to decline from a cliff. Even the Watergate scandal seems to have hit Nixon's approval ratings less than inflation. Under high inflation, President Ford failed to *, and President Carter's approval rating fell below 30% in 1979. In order to reverse the decline in his approval ratings, President Carter delivered his famous speech \"Crisis of Confidence\" on July 15, 1979, and subsequently replaced all 13 members of his cabinet and appointed Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve. In other words, Volcker was appointed to take over the Fed at the crisis to suppress high inflation and boost the government's credibility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1d3666476d64ca778c9f8441af576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb382c78f60f93df9023fdebb8d2c64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Unfortunately, Carter did not have much time. When he began to build momentum for the general election in early 1980, inflation in the United States was still rising, and his approval ratings were depressed again. In the 1980 US election, Reagan promised to curb high inflation and thus won a resounding victory, and the continued substantial rate hike of the Federal Reserve led by Volcker after Reagan came to power was a symbol of Reagan's campaign promise. Although Volcker was nominated by Carter, Volcker came into office close to the U.S. election and his hawkish approach caused the U.S. economic recession in 1980, so it failed to help Carter reverse the defeat. For Reagan, Volcker, while nominated by his predecessor, still lives up to his political commitment to cracking down on high inflation. Volcker's tight monetary policy also led to the US economic recession in 1982 and caused Reagan's approval rating to plummet here. However, in 1983, the US economy stabilized and recovered and inflation dropped to a low level, and Reagan immediately regained popular support.</p><p><b>(2) Is suppressing high inflation Volcker's only policy goal? The Fed also takes into account the economy and employment</b></p><p>After Volcker took office, from April to July, 1980, the Federal Reserve interrupted the rate hike and adopted a short interest rate cut. Combined with Figure 3-6, it can be seen that during the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the United States turned negative and the unemployment rate accelerated. When the economy picked up and the unemployment rate dropped, the Federal Reserve restarted its rate hike. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates during the U.S. economic recession in 1982. In other words, even in the era of high inflation, the Fed will balance economic growth and employment while suppressing high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804c75df17ea8b944f487c1ccb73fb8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91cec001581b7decb53a046cc59c175f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dec7349376fd42edcd265e9fa950814\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499be0b343d81e9e9321b62e57d99dee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Will the long-term stagflation of the 1970s reappear? U.S. inflation inflection point may have appeared</b></p><p><b>The long-term stagflation in the United States in the 1970s was the result of strong demand, the shift of manufacturing industry, and the resonance of supply shocks, which is difficult to reproduce at present.</b>First, the newborns born during the 1970-1980 baby boom turned into a \"demographic dividend\" in the United States, and the rise of these young people stimulated consumption and real estate demand in the United States. In addition, from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, the middle class in the United States accounted for more than 60% (now it is less than 50%), which has further boosted American consumption. But high costs led to a massive shift in U.S. manufacturing in the 1970s. Together with the supply shocks caused by the two oil crises and the depreciation of the dollar, the United States has experienced long-term stagflation. At present, the population structure and the proportion of middle class in the United States are not the same as those in the 1970s. In addition, Biden's emerging industry strategy will also make the proportion of manufacturing rebound, and the United States does not have the foundation for sustained high inflation or even stagflation. For a detailed analysis, please refer to the report \"Inflation Turning Point in the United States: Q1 early; Q2 late\" on February 4th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7a48a1385223cc866508b3e2fb0fa9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. inflation may have peaked (near) in March.</b>The high inflation in the United States since Q4 last year is mainly driven by three sub-items: energy, used cars and housing. In March, the U.S. CPI reached a new high of 8.5% year-on-year, but the main reason is still the above three points. However, the price increase factor in CPI in March is concentrated on the energy sub-item. As long as the situation in Russia and Ukraine is stable, this factor will be reversed in April. The contribution of the sub-item of used cars (transportation products, excluding automobile fuel) to the CPI in March has turned negative, indicating that the structural inflation contradiction caused by the epidemic has been significantly alleviated. As the base rises, the year-on-year contribution of the sub-item where used cars are located to the CPI in Q2 will also weaken significantly. The year-on-year and month-on-month contribution of residential inflation factors in March did not increase compared with February, indicating that this sub-item was relatively stable. As the growth rate of housing prices in the United States peaked from May to July last year, the CPI residential sub-item at the end of Q2 this year is also expected to drop from a high level. Overall, the U.S. CPI may have peaked (close to) in March year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6908ea3d8a76e01c9e477a5c231ec6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, the switching of the Fed's monetary policy anchor in the Powell era</b></p><p><b>(1) Did the Fed misjudge high inflation?</b></p><p>Before September last year, the Federal Reserve always said that high inflation was temporary and would not last, so it failed to tighten the currency in time. The market generally believed that this was a policy mistake of the Federal Reserve due to misjudging the inflation situation. But we think the reason why the Fed denied the persistence of high inflation was because the policy anchor at that time was fiscal. March 11, 2021 · The Biden administration implemented the third round of post-pandemic fiscal transfer payment policies. The United States maintained a high fiscal deficit level in the following months. After the financial crisis and post-epidemic, the Fed's QE operation is a means of monetizing fiscal deficit, with the intention of helping the U.S. Treasury to reduce the cost of debt expenditure through bond purchase. Furthermore, in the two quarters just after the third round of fiscal transfer payments landed, the Federal Reserve still couldn't Taper, and thus couldn't rate hike. The problem that can't be solved is not a problem. Under the background of unable to tighten the money, the Federal Reserve can't acknowledge the persistence of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af96f7d265dd21f6f3317c70bf43a52d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The switching of the Fed's policy anchor in September 2021: fiscal → high inflation</b></p><p>The pressure on U.S. fiscal bond issuance eased in the middle and late Q3 of 2021. At the same time, President Biden's approval rating plummeted as inflation rose. This caused the Federal Reserve's monetary policy anchor to shift from helping the Treasury to reduce the cost of debt spending to suppressing inflation. Combined with the previous article, it can be seen that high inflation has a fatal blow to the president's governing power, so reversing the inflation situation after the fiscal constraints are lifted has become the top priority of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In this context, the Federal Reserve has tapered since Q4 last year, made its first rate hike in March this year, and gave forward guidance to raise interest rates by 50BP in May and start a shrinking balance sheet. Given that inflation has not cooled yet, and Biden's approval rating is still at a term-low level, this also makes the Fed continuously release signals of faster tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe3cc42f798e8fa4c3005237c6e6851\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Since inflation is about to peak, why do you need to rate hike 50BP in May?</b></p><p>Speaking on Thursday, Powell praised Volcker for defeating high inflation, showing that the Federal Reserve also has the determination and courage to fight inflation. In addition, Powell also gave forward guidance that the Federal Reserve will rate hike 50BP at the FOMC in May in his speech. Since U.S. inflation is about to peak, why does the Federal Reserve still want FOMC rate hike 50BP in May? We think this just shows that the Fed doesn't have much room for rate hike, and then it can't raise interest rates by 50BP in a single interest rate meeting without inflation peaking. Logically, once the Fed starts a single FOMC rate hike of 50BP, then as long as inflation does not peak, the Fed must maintain the rhythm of the rate hike of 50BP at each interest rate meeting, otherwise it will surrender to high inflation.</p><p>However, as we pointed out in the report \"US Economic Resilience, Resilience and the Possibility of Recession Next Year\", it is highly probable that the US economy will slow down this year and the annual rate of real GDP in Q1 and Q3 next year will turn negative. In addition, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has dropped below the 0 axis. At present, neither the US economy nor the stock market can withstand many rate hike. Therefore, if inflation does not peak, the Fed will not land 50BP rate hike boots at a single interest rate meeting. However, if inflation shows signs of peaking, in order to show its determination to fight inflation, the Fed will instead take more radical rate hike operations. After the US CPI and other inflation indicators are released in April-May and prove the fact that inflation has cooled down, the Federal Reserve can not only affirm itself but also re-ease the tight monetary pressure.</p><p><b>(4) Reiterate that the Fed's rate hike cycle is likely to stop within the year</b></p><p>According to the experience since the 1980s, the rate hike will end within 3-6 months after the yields of 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds are inverted. At the beginning of April this year, the yields of 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds were inverted, indicating the possibility of ending the rate hike in Q3. Moreover, once the economy turns worse and there is a risk of recession, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. From September 2007 to January 2008 and from September 1989 to November 1990, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the inflation center moved upward. Another common feature of these two stages is that the economy began to slow down and move towards recession. From Q4, 2018 to Q1, 2019, Powell's policy attitude changed even showed that as long as the U.S. stock market sharply adjusted, the Federal Reserve would terminate the rate hike. That is to say,<b>Once the economy deteriorates and there is a risk of recession or U.S. stocks plunge, inflation is no longer the main contradiction of the Fed's monetary policy. Looking forward, on the one hand, the US economy will slow down in the second half of the year, and the risk of economic recession next year will be higher; On the other hand, at present, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative, and the adjustment pressure is intensifying. Furthermore, it is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike within the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1198e106624130a8743c67f62f01c2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. The accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve, the depreciation of RMB exchange rate and the market bottom of A shares</b></p><p>We have always emphasized that for the domestic equity market, the meeting of the Financial Committee on March 16th established the policy bottom; Going forward, if the domestic epidemic situation cools down in May and the policy of steady growth is expected to exert its strength simultaneously, the economic bottom in Q2 will also take shape. However, the prospect of a plunge in U.S. stocks may restrict the risk appetite of A shares to some extent, so the market bottom may be formally established after the fall of U.S. stocks and the global liquidity shock.</p><p>We observed that the RMB exchange rate suddenly accelerated its depreciation on April 22nd, and the three major stock indexes in the United States also plunged on the same day. Behind the two seemingly unrelated types of assets, the same macro logic is reflected: the sudden epidemic in China and the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve. In our report \"RMB Exchange Rate Analysis Framework and Prospects\" on April 23rd, we pointed out that the US dollar is the β of RMB exchange rate; Exports are the alpha of the RMB exchange rate. Under the background of accelerating tightening of US dollar liquidity, the the US Dollar Index will continue to rise in the next 1-2 months or it is a high probability; With the resumption of overseas production and the sudden outbreak of domestic epidemic, the share of exports in Q2 may drop slightly. Assuming that Q2 the US Dollar Index is in the range of 100-102 and China's export share is 15%, the RMB exchange rate may fall in the range of 6.8-7.0.</p><p>In addition, the pandemic in China has not only aggravated the downside risk of the domestic economy, but also constrained the global industrial chain and economic growth. On September 23, 2018, the 25% tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese imports was the catalyst for the collapse of U.S. stocks in Q4 that year. It can be seen that the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are extremely close. Moreover, as shown in Figure 11, the risk premium of U.S. stocks has turned negative at present. After FOMC landed 50BP rate hike and shrinking balance sheet boots in May, the global liquidity will tighten the fact, and U.S. stocks will also be under greater pressure. Coupled with the weakening profitability of U.S. stocks in the coming year, the current leverage ratio is on the high side, and then<b>The adjustment range of U.S. stocks this time may be between Q4 of 2018 and Q1 of 2020.</b></p><p><b>If the RMB exchange rate depreciates further in the next 1-2 months, and the U.S. stock market accelerates its decline after the FOMC Federal Reserve's official shrinking balance sheet in May and induces liquidity shocks, it means that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate hike ahead of schedule and monetary policy will be marginally loosened. Once so, the market bottom of A shares will also approach.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb69e9bbbc87de0fbd9847bb33638080\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>Global pandemic situation exceeded expectations</p><p>China's policy to stabilize growth exceeded expectations</p><p>(3) The Federal Reserve's monetary policy exceeds expectations</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2P_LKrvKO9AJEH5zDEn5xg\">静观金融</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2P_LKrvKO9AJEH5zDEn5xg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115965208","content_text":"为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转颓势，卡特总统任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。可惜，沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得1980年美国经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。2）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业。沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现。1）美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。2）美国本轮通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换：2021年9月前是“财政”；2021年9月至今是“高通胀”；年内某时（预计Q2末至Q3）或将转向对冲“美股下挫+经济放缓”。1）2021年9月前美联储的政策锚是财政。去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平，进而美联储无法Taper、加息。在财政约束下，美联储无法承认高通胀的持续性。2）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀。2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。3）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。4）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内。一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。当前：美联储加速紧缩；人民币汇率贬值；A股寻找市场底。人民币汇率突发加速贬值的同一日美股重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。正文 一、为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？（一）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求很多市场人士认为沃尔克时代因美联储货币政策更为独立而通过大幅升息遏制了高通胀。但我们认为当年沃尔克之所以会在其上任初期（1979年-1980年）将联邦基金利率由约10%上调至20%，并在1980年5-8月短暂调降基准利率后于1981年两度将基准利率再次调高至约22%是因为“政治正确”。理由很简单，美联储主席是由总统提名产生的。如图2所示，70-80年代四任美国总统的任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显，不仅高开低走是常态，只要任期通胀高企其支持率也势必断崖式下滑。甚至于水门事件对尼克松支持率的打击看似都不及通胀。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转任期支持率颓势，1979年7月15日卡特总统曾发表著名演讲《信任危机》，随后将内阁13名成员全部换掉并任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。换言之，沃尔克临危受命接管联储就是为了打压高通胀提振政府公信力。可惜的是，卡特的时间并不多，1980年初开始为大选造势之际美国通胀仍在攀升令其支持率再度低迷。1980年美国大选里根承诺遏制高通胀并因此大获全胜，而沃尔克带领的美联储在里根上台后继续大幅加息就是里根兑现竞选承诺的象征。尽管沃尔克由卡特提名，但沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得美国在1980年经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。沃尔克紧货币政策也曾导致1982年美国经济衰退并令此间里根支持率骤降，但1983年美国经济就已企稳回升且通胀降至低位，里根随即重新获得民众支持。（二）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，结合图3-6可知，美联储降息期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。而当经济回升、失业率回落后，美联储又重新启动加息。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。 二、70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。首先，1970-1980年婴儿潮时期出生的新生儿转化为美国的“人口红利”，这批年轻人的崛起刺激美国了消费与地产需求。此外，60年代末到70年代初美国中产占比超过60%（当下则低于50%），并对美国消费形成了进一步地提振。但高成本导致美国制造业于70年代大规模转出。加上两次石油危机引发的供给冲击，以及美元贬值，美国才出现长期滞胀。当下，美国人口结构及中产占比都不可与70年代同日而语，加上拜登的新兴产业战略也将令制造业占比有所回升，进而美国不具备持续高通胀乃至滞胀的基础。详细分析请见2月4日报告《美国通胀拐点：早则Q1；迟则Q2》。美国通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。去年Q4以来美国高通胀主要由三个分项驱动：能源、二手车及居住。3月美国CPI同比8.5%再创新高，但主因仍是上述三点。只不过3月CPI中涨价因素集中于能源分项，只要俄乌局势稳定，该因素将在4月逆转。二手车所在分项（运输产品,不含汽车燃料）对3月CPI环比贡献已然转负，表明疫情引发的结构性通胀矛盾已经显著缓解。随着基数抬升，二手车所在分项对Q2的CPI同比贡献也将大幅转弱。居住型通胀因素对3月的同、环比贡献并未较2月上升，表明该分项相对稳定，由于去年5-7月美国房价增速见顶，进而今年Q2末CPI居住分项亦有望高位回落。总体而言，美国CPI同比或已于3月（接近）见顶。三、鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换（一）美联储是否误判高通胀？去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，因此未能及时紧货币，市场普遍认为这是联储因误判通胀形势而出现的政策失误。但我们认为之所以美联储否认高通胀的持续性是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平。金融危机后以及疫后美联储QE操作就是财政赤字货币化手段，意图是通过购债行为帮助美国财政部压低债务支出成本。进而，在第三轮财政转移支付刚刚落地后的两个季度内美联储依旧无法Taper，进而无法加息。不能解决的问题就不是问题，在无法紧货币的背景下，美联储亦无法承认高通胀的持续性。（二）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时，随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。结合前文可知，高通胀对总统执政力存在致命打击，因此在财政约束解除后扭转通胀局势就成为美联储货币政策的当务之急。在此背景下，美联储自去年Q4开始Taper，今年3月首次加息，并给出了5月加息50BP且启动缩表的前瞻指引。鉴于通胀尚未降温，进而拜登支持率仍处于任期低位，这也使得美联储不断释放更快紧缩的信号。（三）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？本周四讲话时鲍威尔称赞沃尔克战胜高通胀，表明美联储亦有决心和勇气对抗通胀。此外，鲍威尔还在讲话中给出了5月FOMC上美联储将加息50BP的前瞻指引。既然美国通胀即将见顶，为何美联储还要在5月FOMC加息50BP？我们认为这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。逻辑上，一旦美联储开始单次FOMC加息50BP，那么只要通胀不见顶，美联储就必须保持每次议息会议加息50BP的节奏，否则就是对高通胀缴械投降。但正如我们在报告《美国经济韧性、弹性及明年衰退的可能性》中指出的，今年美国经济放缓、明年Q1与Q3实际GDP环比折年率转负为大概率。此外，美股风险溢价已经降至0轴下方。目前美国经济与股市均无法承受过多次加息，因此通胀不见顶美联储就不会在单次议息会议上落地50BP加息靴子，但若通胀有见顶迹象，为了彰显对抗通胀的决心美联储反而会采取更激进的加息操作。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。（四）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内根据80年代以来的经验，10年期与2年期美债收益率倒挂后的3-6个月之内都会结束加息。今年4月初10年期与2年期美债收益率曾现倒挂，预示着Q3结束加息的可能性。此外，一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。2007年9月-2008年1月以及1989年9月至1990年11月美联储降息阶段通胀中枢均在上移，而这两个阶段的另一个共性则是经济开始放缓并走向衰退。2018年Q4-2019年Q1鲍威尔政策态度的转变甚至说明只要美股大幅调整美联储就会终止加息。也就是说，一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。 四、美联储加速紧缩，人民币汇率贬值以及A股的市场底我们一直强调对国内权益市场而言，3月16日金融委会议确立了政策底；往后看，国内疫情若于5月降温、稳增长政策有望同步发力，Q2内经济底亦将成形。但美股重挫前景或将在一定程度上约束A股风险偏好，因此市场底恐将在美股下挫、全球流动性冲击过后正式确立。我们观察到4月22日人民币汇率突发加速贬值，同一日美国三大股指也均现重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。我们在4月23日报告《人民币汇率分析框架及前景》中指出，美元是人民币汇率的β；出口是人民币汇率的α。在美元流动性加速收紧的背景下未来1-2个月美元指数继续走高或为大概率；海外生产恢复、国内疫情突发，Q2出口份额或小幅回落。假定Q2美元指数在100-102区间，中国出口份额为15%，则人民币汇率就有可能落在6.8-7.0区间。此外，中国疫情不仅令国内经济下行风险加剧，也对全球产业链及经济增长形成掣肘。2018年9月23日美国对华进口商品加征25%的关税就曾是当年Q4美股暴跌的催化剂，可见中美两国之间经贸关系极其紧密。再者，如图11所示，目前美股风险溢价已经转负，5月FOMC落地50BP加息及缩表靴子后，全球流动性将事实收紧，美股也将承受更大压力。加上未来一年美股盈利能力趋弱，当前杠杆率偏高，进而本次美股调整幅度或介于2018年Q4以及2020年Q1之间。假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。风险提示（一）全球疫情形势超预期（二）中国稳增长政策力度超预期（三）美联储货币政策超预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921925592,"gmtCreate":1670969147416,"gmtModify":1676538467359,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576277699879024","authorIdStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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