Chongwei168 personal page - To The Moon

Chongwei168

Chongwei168

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2021-03-19

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21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新债王冈拉克：美股崩盘近在眼前，跌幅将超过15%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187408565","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"冈拉克预言说，一旦跌势到来，众多的散户投资者就将飞速抛弃股票跑路，使得必然要到来的盘整力度陡然增大。“其实大量的投资者都天真地以为股市只有上涨一种可能性，当发现现实并非如此，就会有规模惊人的抛售发生。","content":"<blockquote>\n 冈拉克预言说，一旦跌势到来，众多的散户投资者就将飞速抛弃股票跑路，使得必然要到来的盘整力度陡然增大。“其实大量的投资者都天真地以为股市只有上涨一种可能性，当发现现实并非如此，就会有规模惊人的抛售发生。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11cac4fda147788e18e2e9110a75aaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在新债王冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）看来，美股市场已经严重高估，大跌迫在眉睫。他估计，市场可能下跌超过15%以上。与此同时，对于美国最新一轮的刺激计划，这位双线资本创始人也表示不敢苟同。</p>\n<p>在最近发布于双线资本网站的一次网络广播当中，这位亿万富翁投资人明确断言美股高估，并且预言说市场将遭遇痛苦的跌势。</p>\n<p>冈拉克指出，当下的股市“完全无视任何估值指标，已经严重高估”。</p>\n<p>广播当中，主持人提到了另外一位著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里（Michael Burry），后者最近曾经表示，市场已经处在“投机性泡沫”当中，将会遭遇“戏剧性的和痛苦的”下跌。冈拉克表示，他赞同布里的判断，而且在他看来，市场一旦下跌，跌幅完全可能大幅超过15%。</p>\n<p>冈拉克预言说，一旦跌势到来，众多的散户投资者就将飞速抛弃股票跑路，使得必然要到来的盘整力度陡然增大。“其实大量的投资者都天真地以为股市只有上涨一种可能性，当发现现实并非如此，就会有规模惊人的抛售发生。”</p>\n<p>冈拉克还就疫情期间的联邦支出发出了明确的警告。“现实非常清楚，我们正处在一场投机泡沫当中，而这一切的基础正是债务和联邦政府的行为。”</p>\n<p>冈拉克举出了大量经济数据来证明自己的观点。他列出了贸易和预算赤字的增长，低迷的消费者信心，巴菲特指标和其他市场指标的创纪录读数，令人目眩的市盈率，以及经济增长及就业与股市之间的严重脱节等。</p>\n<p>在这次网络广播当中，冈拉克做出了多个重要预言。他预计，到6月或7月，通货膨胀率就将同比增长3%以上，美元在未来若干月当中将趋向疲软，以及黄金价格将会反弹等。</p>\n<p>冈拉克更进一步预言说，一旦崩盘时刻到来，美股“恐惧指标”，即<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>波动率指数（VIX）就将史上首次涨至100以上。他补充道，高企的估值，以及“Robinhood市场玩家的业余性”将会使得波动火上浇油。</p>\n<p>对拜登总统不久前签署的1.9万亿美元刺激法案，冈拉克也持批评态度。他表示，按照法案规定，一对年收入15万美元，育有三个子女的夫妇将可以得到6000美元的联邦援助资金，这“令人震惊”。</p>\n<p>刺激举措“对于我们所有人而言就是温水煮青蛙”，冈拉克说，这必然伴随着“货币化”的操作，即，政府以印钞，而非是增税或者举债来应付自己的支出。</p>\n<p>“最大的麻烦就在于，我们对这些刺激计划已经彻底上瘾了。”冈拉克指出，政府正在使得大家变得越来越依赖联邦救援，结果就是，到了最后，他们自己也很难关上持续救援的水龙头了。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新债王冈拉克：美股崩盘近在眼前，跌幅将超过15%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新债王冈拉克：美股崩盘近在眼前，跌幅将超过15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 21:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U9_3jBJBIJuBjNf5_lnw7A><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>冈拉克预言说，一旦跌势到来，众多的散户投资者就将飞速抛弃股票跑路，使得必然要到来的盘整力度陡然增大。“其实大量的投资者都天真地以为股市只有上涨一种可能性，当发现现实并非如此，就会有规模惊人的抛售发生。”\n\n\n在新债王冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）看来，美股市场已经严重高估，大跌迫在眉睫。他估计，市场可能下跌超过15%以上。与此同时，对于美国最新一轮的刺激计划，这位双线资本创始人也表示...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U9_3jBJBIJuBjNf5_lnw7A\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U9_3jBJBIJuBjNf5_lnw7A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187408565","content_text":"冈拉克预言说，一旦跌势到来，众多的散户投资者就将飞速抛弃股票跑路，使得必然要到来的盘整力度陡然增大。“其实大量的投资者都天真地以为股市只有上涨一种可能性，当发现现实并非如此，就会有规模惊人的抛售发生。”\n\n\n在新债王冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）看来，美股市场已经严重高估，大跌迫在眉睫。他估计，市场可能下跌超过15%以上。与此同时，对于美国最新一轮的刺激计划，这位双线资本创始人也表示不敢苟同。\n在最近发布于双线资本网站的一次网络广播当中，这位亿万富翁投资人明确断言美股高估，并且预言说市场将遭遇痛苦的跌势。\n冈拉克指出，当下的股市“完全无视任何估值指标，已经严重高估”。\n广播当中，主持人提到了另外一位著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里（Michael Burry），后者最近曾经表示，市场已经处在“投机性泡沫”当中，将会遭遇“戏剧性的和痛苦的”下跌。冈拉克表示，他赞同布里的判断，而且在他看来，市场一旦下跌，跌幅完全可能大幅超过15%。\n冈拉克预言说，一旦跌势到来，众多的散户投资者就将飞速抛弃股票跑路，使得必然要到来的盘整力度陡然增大。“其实大量的投资者都天真地以为股市只有上涨一种可能性，当发现现实并非如此，就会有规模惊人的抛售发生。”\n冈拉克还就疫情期间的联邦支出发出了明确的警告。“现实非常清楚，我们正处在一场投机泡沫当中，而这一切的基础正是债务和联邦政府的行为。”\n冈拉克举出了大量经济数据来证明自己的观点。他列出了贸易和预算赤字的增长，低迷的消费者信心，巴菲特指标和其他市场指标的创纪录读数，令人目眩的市盈率，以及经济增长及就业与股市之间的严重脱节等。\n在这次网络广播当中，冈拉克做出了多个重要预言。他预计，到6月或7月，通货膨胀率就将同比增长3%以上，美元在未来若干月当中将趋向疲软，以及黄金价格将会反弹等。\n冈拉克更进一步预言说，一旦崩盘时刻到来，美股“恐惧指标”，即芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）就将史上首次涨至100以上。他补充道，高企的估值，以及“Robinhood市场玩家的业余性”将会使得波动火上浇油。\n对拜登总统不久前签署的1.9万亿美元刺激法案，冈拉克也持批评态度。他表示，按照法案规定，一对年收入15万美元，育有三个子女的夫妇将可以得到6000美元的联邦援助资金，这“令人震惊”。\n刺激举措“对于我们所有人而言就是温水煮青蛙”，冈拉克说，这必然伴随着“货币化”的操作，即，政府以印钞，而非是增税或者举债来应付自己的支出。\n“最大的麻烦就在于，我们对这些刺激计划已经彻底上瘾了。”冈拉克指出，政府正在使得大家变得越来越依赖联邦救援，结果就是，到了最后，他们自己也很难关上持续救援的水龙头了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322942567,"gmtCreate":1615769922659,"gmtModify":1704786215646,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576277699879024","idStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322942567","repostId":"2119999873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119999873","pubTimestamp":1615741242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119999873?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 01:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Netflix拟收紧对密码共享的打击，促使用户购买订阅服务","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119999873","media":"新浪财经","summary":"Netflix（网飞）公司表示，一项功能正在有限的用户中进行测试，此举可能预示着对家人和朋友之间分享密码的普遍做法的更广泛打击。该公司在一份声明中表示：“该测试旨在帮助确保使用Netflix账户的用户获得授权才能使用。”在新冠病毒大流行期间，Netflix的收视率急剧上升。Netflix早些时候曾暗示，它正在寻找阻止密码共享的方法。她说，黑客理论上可以改变用户的Netflix账户设置，并开始向用户收取更高的费用。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a29225590ce2f05e27ffa468de2531f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Netflix（网飞）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$(NFLX)$</a>公司表示，一项功能正在有限的用户中进行测试，此举可能预示着对家人和朋友之间分享密码的普遍做法的更广泛打击。</p><p>想看《后翼弃兵》还是《亚森罗宾》？如果你一直从家人或朋友那里借用Netflix的密码，现在你可能需要付清所有费用。网飞公司已经开始测试一项新功能，该功能可以促使那些借用外人密码的用户购买订阅服务。</p><p>该公司表示，这项功能正在有限数量的用户中进行测试。这可能标志着将加大对亲友间分享密码以避免付费的普遍做法的打击力度。</p><p>该公司在一份声明中表示：“该测试旨在帮助确保使用Netflix账户的用户获得授权才能使用。”</p><p>一些用户最近开始注意到这个功能，当他们登录一个共享的Netflix账户时，在他们的屏幕上看到一条信息，“如果你不与这个账户的所有者住在一起，你需要自己的账户来继续观看。”为了继续观看，这些用户被要求输入短信或电子邮件发送给他们的代码，以确认这是他们的账户，或者加入自己的账户到Netflix。他们也可以选择稍后完成核查过程。</p><p>这一测试似乎更多的是推动用户购买订阅服务，而不是铁腕打击。例如，从朋友或家人那里借用密码的人可以要求Netflix发送的验证码。</p><p>“我不相信这是一场全面进攻，”匹兹堡卡内基梅隆大学（Carnegie Mellon University）的信息技术和营销教授迈克尔·d·史密斯（Michael D． Smith）说。“这可能是对某些海盗的警告射击。”但是，他说，仅仅是提醒人们密码共享是不允许的，就可以说服一些人购买订阅，而不是继续使用他们的朋友或亲戚支付的密码。“即使是不能接受盗版的轻微信号也可能改变人们的行为。”</p><p><b>在新冠病毒大流行期间，Netflix的收视率急剧上升。</b></p><p>该公司今年1月表示，第四季度新增用户850万，到2020年底，付费用户总数为2.036亿。该公司在美国拥有约6600万用户，预计今年前三个月的用户总数将增加600万。</p><p>Netflix早些时候曾暗示，它正在寻找阻止密码共享的方法。该公司首席产品官格雷戈里·k·彼得斯（Gregory K． Peters）在2019年10月评估公司收益的电话会议上表示，Netflix正在“考虑这种情况”。</p><p>“我们将再次看到，那些对消费者友好的方式来推动它的边缘，”彼得斯说，并补充说，该公司“目前还没有宣布重大计划。”</p><p>史密斯教授表示，由于人们使用这项服务却不付费，该公司显然损失了大量收入。</p><p>他说：“分享你的密码是盗版行为，如果用户使用朋友的密码订阅，Netflix可能要花很多钱，所以这毫无疑问是个问题。”“对他们来说，真正的挑战是找出谁是密码共享者，谁是合法账户。”</p><p>卡耐基梅隆大学（Carnegie Mellon university）计算机科学与工程及公共政策教授劳瑞·费斯·克兰诺（Lorrie Faith Cranor）说，除了商业方面的顾虑，要求用户输入可以发送短信或电子邮件的密码也有安全方面的好处。</p><p>她说，黑客理论上可以改变用户的Netflix账户设置，并开始向用户收取更高的费用。他们还可以获取信息，帮助他们侵入其他账户，特别是当客户对多个账户使用相同的密码时。“这是很常见的事，”她说。</p><p>但要求用户输入通过短信或电子邮件发送的密码——这一被许多社交媒体和银行应用程序使用的被称为双因素身份验证的过程——使得攻击者更难入侵。“我不确定这是不是一个巨大的好处，”克兰诺教授说，“但确实有一些好处。”</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-15/doc-ikkntiam1522792.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Netflix（网飞）$(NFLX)$公司表示，一项功能正在有限的用户中进行测试，此举可能预示着对家人和朋友之间分享密码的普遍做法的更广泛打击。想看《后翼弃兵》还是《亚森罗宾》？如果你一直从家人或朋友那里借用Netflix的密码，现在你可能需要付清所有费用。网飞公司已经开始测试一项新功能，该功能可以促使那些借用外人密码的用户购买订阅服务。该公司表示，这项功能正在有限数量的用户中进行测试。这可能标志...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-15/doc-ikkntiam1522792.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/120/w550h370/20210315/08c5-kmkptxc4138057.png/w720fin.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-15/doc-ikkntiam1522792.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119999873","content_text":"Netflix（网飞）$(NFLX)$公司表示，一项功能正在有限的用户中进行测试，此举可能预示着对家人和朋友之间分享密码的普遍做法的更广泛打击。想看《后翼弃兵》还是《亚森罗宾》？如果你一直从家人或朋友那里借用Netflix的密码，现在你可能需要付清所有费用。网飞公司已经开始测试一项新功能，该功能可以促使那些借用外人密码的用户购买订阅服务。该公司表示，这项功能正在有限数量的用户中进行测试。这可能标志着将加大对亲友间分享密码以避免付费的普遍做法的打击力度。该公司在一份声明中表示：“该测试旨在帮助确保使用Netflix账户的用户获得授权才能使用。”一些用户最近开始注意到这个功能，当他们登录一个共享的Netflix账户时，在他们的屏幕上看到一条信息，“如果你不与这个账户的所有者住在一起，你需要自己的账户来继续观看。”为了继续观看，这些用户被要求输入短信或电子邮件发送给他们的代码，以确认这是他们的账户，或者加入自己的账户到Netflix。他们也可以选择稍后完成核查过程。这一测试似乎更多的是推动用户购买订阅服务，而不是铁腕打击。例如，从朋友或家人那里借用密码的人可以要求Netflix发送的验证码。“我不相信这是一场全面进攻，”匹兹堡卡内基梅隆大学（Carnegie Mellon University）的信息技术和营销教授迈克尔·d·史密斯（Michael D． Smith）说。“这可能是对某些海盗的警告射击。”但是，他说，仅仅是提醒人们密码共享是不允许的，就可以说服一些人购买订阅，而不是继续使用他们的朋友或亲戚支付的密码。“即使是不能接受盗版的轻微信号也可能改变人们的行为。”在新冠病毒大流行期间，Netflix的收视率急剧上升。该公司今年1月表示，第四季度新增用户850万，到2020年底，付费用户总数为2.036亿。该公司在美国拥有约6600万用户，预计今年前三个月的用户总数将增加600万。Netflix早些时候曾暗示，它正在寻找阻止密码共享的方法。该公司首席产品官格雷戈里·k·彼得斯（Gregory K． Peters）在2019年10月评估公司收益的电话会议上表示，Netflix正在“考虑这种情况”。“我们将再次看到，那些对消费者友好的方式来推动它的边缘，”彼得斯说，并补充说，该公司“目前还没有宣布重大计划。”史密斯教授表示，由于人们使用这项服务却不付费，该公司显然损失了大量收入。他说：“分享你的密码是盗版行为，如果用户使用朋友的密码订阅，Netflix可能要花很多钱，所以这毫无疑问是个问题。”“对他们来说，真正的挑战是找出谁是密码共享者，谁是合法账户。”卡耐基梅隆大学（Carnegie Mellon university）计算机科学与工程及公共政策教授劳瑞·费斯·克兰诺（Lorrie Faith Cranor）说，除了商业方面的顾虑，要求用户输入可以发送短信或电子邮件的密码也有安全方面的好处。她说，黑客理论上可以改变用户的Netflix账户设置，并开始向用户收取更高的费用。他们还可以获取信息，帮助他们侵入其他账户，特别是当客户对多个账户使用相同的密码时。“这是很常见的事，”她说。但要求用户输入通过短信或电子邮件发送的密码——这一被许多社交媒体和银行应用程序使用的被称为双因素身份验证的过程——使得攻击者更难入侵。“我不确定这是不是一个巨大的好处，”克兰诺教授说，“但确实有一些好处。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038145530,"gmtCreate":1646782918425,"gmtModify":1676534160972,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576277699879024","idStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038145530","repostId":"2218036944","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928154747,"gmtCreate":1671230133890,"gmtModify":1676538511957,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576277699879024","idStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$富途控股(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928154747","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912862894,"gmtCreate":1664801076418,"gmtModify":1676537510159,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576277699879024","idStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912862894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085780337,"gmtCreate":1650765910938,"gmtModify":1676534788713,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576277699879024","idStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085780337","repostId":"1115965208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115965208","pubTimestamp":1650764935,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115965208?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-24 09:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"西部宏观：美联储政策锚与A股的市场底","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115965208","media":"静观金融","summary":"为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？</b></p><p><b>1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。</b>70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">卡特</a>总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转颓势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">卡特</a>总统任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。可惜，沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得1980年美国经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。</p><p><b>2）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业。</b>沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。</p><p><b>70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现。1）</b>美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。<b>2）</b>美国本轮通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。</p><p><b>鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换：2021年9月前是“财政”；2021年9月至今是“高通胀”；年内某时（预计Q2末至Q3）或将转向对冲“美股下挫+经济放缓”。</b></p><p><b>1）2021年9月前美联储的政策锚是财政。</b>去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平，进而美联储无法Taper、加息。在财政约束下，美联储无法承认高通胀的持续性。</p><p><b>2）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀。</b>2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。</p><p><b>3）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？</b>这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。</p><p><b>4）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内。</b>一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。</p><p><b>当前：美联储加速紧缩；人民币汇率贬值；A股寻找市场底。</b>人民币汇率突发加速贬值的同一日美股重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。<b>假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。</b></p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b> 一、为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？</b></p><p><b>（一）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求</b></p><p>很多市场人士认为沃尔克时代因美联储货币政策更为独立而通过大幅升息遏制了高通胀。但我们认为当年沃尔克之所以会在其上任初期（1979年-1980年）将联邦基金利率由约10%上调至20%，并在1980年5-8月短暂调降基准利率后于1981年两度将基准利率再次调高至约22%是因为“政治正确”。理由很简单，美联储主席是由总统提名产生的。</p><p>如图2所示，70-80年代四任美国总统的任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显，不仅高开低走是常态，只要任期通胀高企其支持率也势必断崖式下滑。甚至于水门事件对尼克松支持率的打击看似都不及通胀。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转任期支持率颓势，1979年7月15日卡特总统曾发表著名演讲《信任危机》，随后将内阁13名成员全部换掉并任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。换言之，沃尔克临危受命接管联储就是为了打压高通胀提振政府公信力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1d3666476d64ca778c9f8441af576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb382c78f60f93df9023fdebb8d2c64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>可惜的是，卡特的时间并不多，1980年初开始为大选造势之际美国通胀仍在攀升令其支持率再度低迷。1980年美国大选里根承诺遏制高通胀并因此大获全胜，而沃尔克带领的美联储在里根上台后继续大幅加息就是里根兑现竞选承诺的象征。尽管沃尔克由卡特提名，但沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得美国在1980年经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。沃尔克紧货币政策也曾导致1982年美国经济衰退并令此间里根支持率骤降，但1983年美国经济就已企稳回升且通胀降至低位，里根随即重新获得民众支持。</p><p><b>（二）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业</b></p><p>沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，结合图3-6可知，美联储降息期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。而当经济回升、失业率回落后，美联储又重新启动加息。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804c75df17ea8b944f487c1ccb73fb8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91cec001581b7decb53a046cc59c175f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dec7349376fd42edcd265e9fa950814\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499be0b343d81e9e9321b62e57d99dee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b> 二、70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现</b></p><p><b>美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。</b>首先，1970-1980年婴儿潮时期出生的新生儿转化为美国的“人口红利”，这批年轻人的崛起刺激美国了消费与地产需求。此外，60年代末到70年代初美国中产占比超过60%（当下则低于50%），并对美国消费形成了进一步地提振。但高成本导致美国制造业于70年代大规模转出。加上两次石油危机引发的供给冲击，以及美元贬值，美国才出现长期滞胀。当下，美国人口结构及中产占比都不可与70年代同日而语，加上拜登的新兴产业战略也将令制造业占比有所回升，进而美国不具备持续高通胀乃至滞胀的基础。详细分析请见2月4日报告《美国通胀拐点：早则Q1；迟则Q2》。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7a48a1385223cc866508b3e2fb0fa9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美国通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。</b>去年Q4以来美国高通胀主要由三个分项驱动：能源、二手车及居住。3月美国CPI同比8.5%再创新高，但主因仍是上述三点。只不过3月CPI中涨价因素集中于能源分项，只要俄乌局势稳定，该因素将在4月逆转。二手车所在分项（运输产品,不含汽车燃料）对3月CPI环比贡献已然转负，表明疫情引发的结构性通胀矛盾已经显著缓解。随着基数抬升，二手车所在分项对Q2的CPI同比贡献也将大幅转弱。居住型通胀因素对3月的同、环比贡献并未较2月上升，表明该分项相对稳定，由于去年5-7月美国房价增速见顶，进而今年Q2末CPI居住分项亦有望高位回落。总体而言，美国CPI同比或已于3月（接近）见顶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6908ea3d8a76e01c9e477a5c231ec6e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>三、鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换</b></p><p><b>（一）美联储是否误判高通胀？</b></p><p>去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，因此未能及时紧货币，市场普遍认为这是联储因误判通胀形势而出现的政策失误。但我们认为之所以美联储否认高通胀的持续性是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平。金融危机后以及疫后美联储QE操作就是财政赤字货币化手段，意图是通过购债行为帮助美国财政部压低债务支出成本。进而，在第三轮财政转移支付刚刚落地后的两个季度内美联储依旧无法Taper，进而无法加息。不能解决的问题就不是问题，在无法紧货币的背景下，美联储亦无法承认高通胀的持续性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af96f7d265dd21f6f3317c70bf43a52d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>（二）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀</b></p><p>2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时，随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。结合前文可知，高通胀对总统执政力存在致命打击，因此在财政约束解除后扭转通胀局势就成为美联储货币政策的当务之急。在此背景下，美联储自去年Q4开始Taper，今年3月首次加息，并给出了5月加息50BP且启动缩表的前瞻指引。鉴于通胀尚未降温，进而拜登支持率仍处于任期低位，这也使得美联储不断释放更快紧缩的信号。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe3cc42f798e8fa4c3005237c6e6851\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>（三）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？</b></p><p>本周四讲话时鲍威尔称赞沃尔克战胜高通胀，表明美联储亦有决心和勇气对抗通胀。此外，鲍威尔还在讲话中给出了5月FOMC上美联储将加息50BP的前瞻指引。既然美国通胀即将见顶，为何美联储还要在5月FOMC加息50BP？我们认为这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。逻辑上，一旦美联储开始单次FOMC加息50BP，那么只要通胀不见顶，美联储就必须保持每次议息会议加息50BP的节奏，否则就是对高通胀缴械投降。</p><p>但正如我们在报告《美国经济韧性、弹性及明年衰退的可能性》中指出的，今年美国经济放缓、明年Q1与Q3实际GDP环比折年率转负为大概率。此外，美股风险溢价已经降至0轴下方。目前美国经济与股市均无法承受过多次加息，因此通胀不见顶美联储就不会在单次议息会议上落地50BP加息靴子，但若通胀有见顶迹象，为了彰显对抗通胀的决心美联储反而会采取更激进的加息操作。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。</p><p><b>（四）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内</b></p><p>根据80年代以来的经验，10年期与2年期美债收益率倒挂后的3-6个月之内都会结束加息。今年4月初10年期与2年期美债收益率曾现倒挂，预示着Q3结束加息的可能性。此外，一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。2007年9月-2008年1月以及1989年9月至1990年11月美联储降息阶段通胀中枢均在上移，而这两个阶段的另一个共性则是经济开始放缓并走向衰退。2018年Q4-2019年Q1鲍威尔政策态度的转变甚至说明只要美股大幅调整美联储就会终止加息。也就是说，<b>一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1198e106624130a8743c67f62f01c2f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b> 四、美联储加速紧缩，人民币汇率贬值以及A股的市场底</b></p><p>我们一直强调对国内权益市场而言，3月16日金融委会议确立了政策底；往后看，国内疫情若于5月降温、稳增长政策有望同步发力，Q2内经济底亦将成形。但美股重挫前景或将在一定程度上约束A股风险偏好，因此市场底恐将在美股下挫、全球流动性冲击过后正式确立。</p><p>我们观察到4月22日人民币汇率突发加速贬值，同一日美国三大股指也均现重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。我们在4月23日报告《人民币汇率分析框架及前景》中指出，美元是人民币汇率的β；出口是人民币汇率的α。在美元流动性加速收紧的背景下未来1-2个月美元指数继续走高或为大概率；海外生产恢复、国内疫情突发，Q2出口份额或小幅回落。假定Q2美元指数在100-102区间，中国出口份额为15%，则人民币汇率就有可能落在6.8-7.0区间。</p><p>此外，中国疫情不仅令国内经济下行风险加剧，也对全球产业链及经济增长形成掣肘。2018年9月23日美国对华进口商品加征25%的关税就曾是当年Q4美股暴跌的催化剂，可见中美两国之间经贸关系极其紧密。再者，如图11所示，目前美股风险溢价已经转负，5月FOMC落地50BP加息及缩表靴子后，全球流动性将事实收紧，美股也将承受更大压力。加上未来一年美股盈利能力趋弱，当前杠杆率偏高，进而<b>本次美股调整幅度或介于2018年Q4以及2020年Q1之间。</b></p><p><b>假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb69e9bbbc87de0fbd9847bb33638080\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>风险提示</b></p><p>（一）全球疫情形势超预期</p><p>（二）中国稳增长政策力度超预期</p><p>（三）美联储货币政策超预期</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1571618842096","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>西部宏观：美联储政策锚与A股的市场底</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n西部宏观：美联储政策锚与A股的市场底\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-24 09:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2P_LKrvKO9AJEH5zDEn5xg><strong>静观金融</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转颓势，卡特总统任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。可惜，沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得1980年美国经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2P_LKrvKO9AJEH5zDEn5xg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2P_LKrvKO9AJEH5zDEn5xg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115965208","content_text":"为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？1）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求。70-80年代四任美国总统任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转颓势，卡特总统任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。可惜，沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得1980年美国经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。2）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业。沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现。1）美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。2）美国本轮通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换：2021年9月前是“财政”；2021年9月至今是“高通胀”；年内某时（预计Q2末至Q3）或将转向对冲“美股下挫+经济放缓”。1）2021年9月前美联储的政策锚是财政。去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平，进而美联储无法Taper、加息。在财政约束下，美联储无法承认高通胀的持续性。2）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀。2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。3）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。4）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内。一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。当前：美联储加速紧缩；人民币汇率贬值；A股寻找市场底。人民币汇率突发加速贬值的同一日美股重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。正文 一、为何说沃尔克时代大幅升息并非是货币独立的体现？（一）沃尔克之所以能够大幅升息对抗高通胀是因为该做法迎合了政治诉求很多市场人士认为沃尔克时代因美联储货币政策更为独立而通过大幅升息遏制了高通胀。但我们认为当年沃尔克之所以会在其上任初期（1979年-1980年）将联邦基金利率由约10%上调至20%，并在1980年5-8月短暂调降基准利率后于1981年两度将基准利率再次调高至约22%是因为“政治正确”。理由很简单，美联储主席是由总统提名产生的。如图2所示，70-80年代四任美国总统的任期支持率与通胀的负相关特征极其明显，不仅高开低走是常态，只要任期通胀高企其支持率也势必断崖式下滑。甚至于水门事件对尼克松支持率的打击看似都不及通胀。高通胀形势下，福特总统未能连任，1979年卡特总统支持率也降至30%下方。为了扭转任期支持率颓势，1979年7月15日卡特总统曾发表著名演讲《信任危机》，随后将内阁13名成员全部换掉并任命保罗·沃尔克出任美联储主席。换言之，沃尔克临危受命接管联储就是为了打压高通胀提振政府公信力。可惜的是，卡特的时间并不多，1980年初开始为大选造势之际美国通胀仍在攀升令其支持率再度低迷。1980年美国大选里根承诺遏制高通胀并因此大获全胜，而沃尔克带领的美联储在里根上台后继续大幅加息就是里根兑现竞选承诺的象征。尽管沃尔克由卡特提名，但沃尔克上任之际已经临近美国大选且其鹰派做法使得美国在1980年经济衰退，因此未能助力卡特扭转败局。对于里根来说，沃尔克固然由前任提名，但仍然符合其打压高通胀的政治承诺。沃尔克紧货币政策也曾导致1982年美国经济衰退并令此间里根支持率骤降，但1983年美国经济就已企稳回升且通胀降至低位，里根随即重新获得民众支持。（二）打压高通胀是否沃尔克的唯一政策目标？美联储亦兼顾经济与就业沃尔克上任后1980年4-7月美联储曾中断加息并且采取了短暂降息的操作，结合图3-6可知，美联储降息期间美国实际GDP同比增速转负且失业率加速攀升。而当经济回升、失业率回落后，美联储又重新启动加息。1982年美国经济衰退期间美联储也采取了降息操作。换言之，即便在高通胀时代，美联储在打压高通胀的同时也会兼顾经济增长和就业。 二、70年代的长期滞胀会否重现？美国通胀拐点或已出现美国70年代长期滞胀是需求强劲、制造业转出、供给冲击共振的结果，当下难以重现。首先，1970-1980年婴儿潮时期出生的新生儿转化为美国的“人口红利”，这批年轻人的崛起刺激美国了消费与地产需求。此外，60年代末到70年代初美国中产占比超过60%（当下则低于50%），并对美国消费形成了进一步地提振。但高成本导致美国制造业于70年代大规模转出。加上两次石油危机引发的供给冲击，以及美元贬值，美国才出现长期滞胀。当下，美国人口结构及中产占比都不可与70年代同日而语，加上拜登的新兴产业战略也将令制造业占比有所回升，进而美国不具备持续高通胀乃至滞胀的基础。详细分析请见2月4日报告《美国通胀拐点：早则Q1；迟则Q2》。美国通胀或已于3月（接近）见顶。去年Q4以来美国高通胀主要由三个分项驱动：能源、二手车及居住。3月美国CPI同比8.5%再创新高，但主因仍是上述三点。只不过3月CPI中涨价因素集中于能源分项，只要俄乌局势稳定，该因素将在4月逆转。二手车所在分项（运输产品,不含汽车燃料）对3月CPI环比贡献已然转负，表明疫情引发的结构性通胀矛盾已经显著缓解。随着基数抬升，二手车所在分项对Q2的CPI同比贡献也将大幅转弱。居住型通胀因素对3月的同、环比贡献并未较2月上升，表明该分项相对稳定，由于去年5-7月美国房价增速见顶，进而今年Q2末CPI居住分项亦有望高位回落。总体而言，美国CPI同比或已于3月（接近）见顶。三、鲍威尔时代美联储货币政策锚的切换（一）美联储是否误判高通胀？去年9月前美联储始终表示高通胀是暂时的、不会持续，因此未能及时紧货币，市场普遍认为这是联储因误判通胀形势而出现的政策失误。但我们认为之所以美联储否认高通胀的持续性是因为彼时的政策锚是财政。2021年3月11日拜登政府实施了第三轮疫后财政转移支付政策。随后数月美国均保持较高的财政赤字水平。金融危机后以及疫后美联储QE操作就是财政赤字货币化手段，意图是通过购债行为帮助美国财政部压低债务支出成本。进而，在第三轮财政转移支付刚刚落地后的两个季度内美联储依旧无法Taper，进而无法加息。不能解决的问题就不是问题，在无法紧货币的背景下，美联储亦无法承认高通胀的持续性。（二）2021年9月美联储政策锚的切换：财政→高通胀2021年Q3中后期美国财政发债压力有所缓解，与此同时，随着通胀走高，总统拜登支持率骤降。这令美联储货币政策锚开始由帮助财政部压低债务支出成本转向打压通胀。结合前文可知，高通胀对总统执政力存在致命打击，因此在财政约束解除后扭转通胀局势就成为美联储货币政策的当务之急。在此背景下，美联储自去年Q4开始Taper，今年3月首次加息，并给出了5月加息50BP且启动缩表的前瞻指引。鉴于通胀尚未降温，进而拜登支持率仍处于任期低位，这也使得美联储不断释放更快紧缩的信号。（三）既然通胀即将见顶，为何5月还要加息50BP？本周四讲话时鲍威尔称赞沃尔克战胜高通胀，表明美联储亦有决心和勇气对抗通胀。此外，鲍威尔还在讲话中给出了5月FOMC上美联储将加息50BP的前瞻指引。既然美国通胀即将见顶，为何美联储还要在5月FOMC加息50BP？我们认为这恰恰说明美联储没有太多加息空间，进而通胀不见顶就不能单次议息会议升息50BP。逻辑上，一旦美联储开始单次FOMC加息50BP，那么只要通胀不见顶，美联储就必须保持每次议息会议加息50BP的节奏，否则就是对高通胀缴械投降。但正如我们在报告《美国经济韧性、弹性及明年衰退的可能性》中指出的，今年美国经济放缓、明年Q1与Q3实际GDP环比折年率转负为大概率。此外，美股风险溢价已经降至0轴下方。目前美国经济与股市均无法承受过多次加息，因此通胀不见顶美联储就不会在单次议息会议上落地50BP加息靴子，但若通胀有见顶迹象，为了彰显对抗通胀的决心美联储反而会采取更激进的加息操作。待4-5月美国CPI等通胀指标公布并证明了通胀降温事实后美联储不仅可以自我肯定还可以重新缓和紧货币压力。（四）重申美联储加息周期大概率止步于年内根据80年代以来的经验，10年期与2年期美债收益率倒挂后的3-6个月之内都会结束加息。今年4月初10年期与2年期美债收益率曾现倒挂，预示着Q3结束加息的可能性。此外，一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。2007年9月-2008年1月以及1989年9月至1990年11月美联储降息阶段通胀中枢均在上移，而这两个阶段的另一个共性则是经济开始放缓并走向衰退。2018年Q4-2019年Q1鲍威尔政策态度的转变甚至说明只要美股大幅调整美联储就会终止加息。也就是说，一旦经济转差并存在衰退风险或是美股大跌，通胀因素就不再是美联储货币政策的主要矛盾。往后看，一方面下半年美国经济放缓、明年经济衰退风险较高；另一方面目前美股风险溢价已经转负，调整压力不断加剧。进而，美联储于年内结束加息为大概率。 四、美联储加速紧缩，人民币汇率贬值以及A股的市场底我们一直强调对国内权益市场而言，3月16日金融委会议确立了政策底；往后看，国内疫情若于5月降温、稳增长政策有望同步发力，Q2内经济底亦将成形。但美股重挫前景或将在一定程度上约束A股风险偏好，因此市场底恐将在美股下挫、全球流动性冲击过后正式确立。我们观察到4月22日人民币汇率突发加速贬值，同一日美国三大股指也均现重挫。看似不相关的两类资产背后却在反映相同的宏观逻辑：中国突发疫情与美联储加速紧缩。我们在4月23日报告《人民币汇率分析框架及前景》中指出，美元是人民币汇率的β；出口是人民币汇率的α。在美元流动性加速收紧的背景下未来1-2个月美元指数继续走高或为大概率；海外生产恢复、国内疫情突发，Q2出口份额或小幅回落。假定Q2美元指数在100-102区间，中国出口份额为15%，则人民币汇率就有可能落在6.8-7.0区间。此外，中国疫情不仅令国内经济下行风险加剧，也对全球产业链及经济增长形成掣肘。2018年9月23日美国对华进口商品加征25%的关税就曾是当年Q4美股暴跌的催化剂，可见中美两国之间经贸关系极其紧密。再者，如图11所示，目前美股风险溢价已经转负，5月FOMC落地50BP加息及缩表靴子后，全球流动性将事实收紧，美股也将承受更大压力。加上未来一年美股盈利能力趋弱，当前杠杆率偏高，进而本次美股调整幅度或介于2018年Q4以及2020年Q1之间。假若未来1-2个月人民币汇率进一步贬值，5月FOMC美联储正式缩表后美股加速下探并诱发流动性冲击，那么就意味着美联储有望提前结束加息、货币政策将边际转松。一旦如此，A股的市场底也将渐近。风险提示（一）全球疫情形势超预期（二）中国稳增长政策力度超预期（三）美联储货币政策超预期","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921925592,"gmtCreate":1670969147416,"gmtModify":1676538467359,"author":{"id":"3576277699879024","authorId":"3576277699879024","name":"Chongwei168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d07f1a3bcd3b91095ba1ec80b944d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576277699879024","idStr":"3576277699879024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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