Asphen
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avatarAsphen
2023-09-24

Apple defines the S&P500 and both are showing similar signs indeed; Possible up to test resistance and then fall to another low!

Recent key movements - MA5 crossed below MA20 on 3 Aug, tested lower BB and crossed above MA20 29 Aug, tested the upper BB. Back down below MA20 but not tested BB yet.  - Bullish buys around Fib 38.2 level at 178 and also triangle support at 175 Possible Bearish movement (more likely) - Reading a buy push to MA20 (180) before rejecting down to the lower BB and MA20 at 165 (MA200 purple and also Fib level) - More likely movement in conjunction with S&P500 setup with possible bearish move below 430 Possible Bullish Movement (less likely) - Break MA20 (180) and then test triangle and break MA50 at about 184/185, rejecting at upper BB at 190 My plays - Still on manual strangles with sold puts 140 and 145 - If breaks above or testing MA20, might consider selling calls for upper stra
Apple defines the S&P500 and both are showing similar signs indeed; Possible up to test resistance and then fall to another low!
avatarAsphen
2023-05-21
TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==> This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!
avatarAsphen
2023-06-10
SPY breakout of 4 day balance! Rejected off call options wall at 430! BIG catalyst week coming up! - Zero DTE call options stopped SPY run! Big call option wall at 430 meant that market makers will not want market to end Friday above 430! - A big rejection candle formed on Friday with a touch into 431+ as shared in TA Thurs - It is NOT bearish until it is.  - It held above the magical 429/430 level so it awaits CPI Tues! PPI/FOMC Wed! - 4 day area of balance 426 and 429 will be key; Monday might see it break below back into range - On 5min chart, notice that 429 came strongly into support meant bears do not want to take it downwards too far - Note that there is lack of support below 426 down to 421 My watch - If it breaks back below into range 426-429 - If it stays above 426 Overal
avatarAsphen
2023-09-10
TSLA inverse Head and Shoulder still in play; But hinges on CPI not being too hot! - Coming week CPI market expectation is a high of 0.6! If the figures do not come in lower than 0.6, we might be in for a rude awakening. - MA20 still at 240 support  - MA50 and MA5 remains resistance - Likely to stay within range between 240 and 260 until CPI clarity - A hot CPI will likely see 220 down to 209 and then 190 My watch/play - Sold puts (look to close higher strikes in any run early week) - Will sell lower strike puts to capture the pre-CPI volatility  Good luck, all! @macroB  @CaptainTiger  @Deposit  
avatarAsphen
04-21

Will GOOG continue to 163 or struggle below 155 down to 137?

Price action (20 Apr 2024) - Price action at key level 155 ==> Also where MA5 is touching MA20 now - If MA5 cross below MA20, then is bearish - A cross below MA20 would mean 163 no longer in play and a break below 155 - Look for a back test of 155 on the way up  - Any failures will mean continued bearishness to 137 - Note the earnings on 25 Apr 2024 ==> a negative reaction will certainly mean 137 coming up! My plays - Been nibbling GOOG shares since months back - Cost base 130 - Sold puts strike 143 and 135 Good luck, all!! GOOG Daily - 20 Apr 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  
Will GOOG continue to 163 or struggle below 155 down to 137?
avatarAsphen
02-04

Strong response off 180 from AAPL as expected (Fib 61.8)

Price action (4 Feb 2024) - Fib 61.8 pullback 180 was a strong bounce - Could it be a big dead cat bounce to form the right shoulder for Head and Shoulder and then break down below 180 to 165 (range play) - As they say, it is only a confirmed pattern until the neckline break, so for now, the recovery seems on. Got to see how AAPL moves next week.  - A 180 hold and breakout is still quite bullish My plays - Selling puts still for now AAPL Daily - 4 Feb 2024 @melson  @CaptainTiger  @TigerStars  @macroB  
Strong response off 180 from AAPL as expected (Fib 61.8)
avatarAsphen
02-18

TSLA - Macro / Micro View in Charts

TSLA Analysis - 1 of 2 View (macro view) Update 18 Feb 2024 - Fib 61.8 is at 177 which was the low of the most recent support coming in - We are still in a downtrend channel and starting to build strength from the 177 Fib bounce - The top side of the channel is "alas" back at 255 again (previous sharing of key resistance levels) TSLA - Macro View - 18 Feb 2024 TSLA Analysis - 2 of 2 View (micro view) Update 18 Feb 2024 - Previously shared the formation of the "island" with the gap down from earnings (181 to 193) - Whether island reversal happens or not depends on strength of the counter - Have been in the island range for awhile and last week saw the initial break out of the range to fill the gap - Reached 50% gap fill and also VWAP at 200! ==> as shared many times, 50% gap fill is usua
TSLA - Macro / Micro View in Charts
avatarAsphen
04-21

AAPL breakdown below key level 169; Bounce then 155?

Price action (20 Apr 2024) - MA5 yellow below MA20 green ==> bearish - All MA lines are pointing downwards - Breakdown below 169 (key support) last week signal bearish - A bounce could still happen with resistance backtest at 169 - A failure of test of 169 would certainly bring 156 or 155 into the target My plays - Been nibbling small amounts - Had been selling puts (Strike 165 but closed last week safe) - Had been reselling puts strike 145 (next key level support) Good luck, all! AAPL Daily - 20 Apr 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  @CaptainTiger &nbs
AAPL breakdown below key level 169; Bounce then 155?
avatarAsphen
03-30

TSLA remains good above 160; Key to get over 182; Key Q1 delivery numbers next week!

Price action (Update 30 Mar 2024) - Since the bear flag rejection off 209, 199 broke and it has since found a good bounce off the "miracle range 160-145" - The last time we tested 160 was back in Apr 2023 - Past action between 160 and 182 had been weak price action but recent had shown some volume - Positive is MA5 is now touching MA20 and a positive cross will bode well for break above of 182 Bullish - Simply need to break 182 and 199/209. Failing any of these levels will just mean bearish! Bearish - Another test of 160 will likely mean a break below towards 150 and 145 and 134 down to 119 My plays - Continued holding since accumulation of shares down to 160 - Will increase positions if 160 breaks below and take at 145 - Sold puts strike 145 Good luck, all! TSLA Daily - 31 Mar 2024
TSLA remains good above 160; Key to get over 182; Key Q1 delivery numbers next week!
avatarAsphen
2023-12-16

PYPL back in play?

Good price action since 27 Oct 2023 - MA5 crossed above MA20 with the earnings on 27 Oct - MA5/MA20 had been really tight together with the upper bollinger band - Cup was well formed at 60 and once the breakout from the handle, it is now going for the next key level of 65 FED and Company Strength - With Powell's magnificent showing last week, PYPL might benefit from the "rate cuts" or easing - Good new leadership ==> New CEO comes from a credible front with INTUIT - Strong financials ==> PYPL still has a good set of financials that will soon bear fruit with the new direction of the CEO Price action forward - Go for cup formation at 65 and handle formation towards 70 (also 50% gap fill)  - Full gap fill at 74 would be next - Downside support looks good at 56 then 52 Good luck,
PYPL back in play?
avatarAsphen
04-21

Simple levels for AMD to buy in - 133 and 110

Price action update (21 Apr 2024) - Any bounce likely to see reaction at 165 - MA5 is below MA20 and both below MA50 also - Very likely going towards key levels of 133 and 110 before down to 85 My plays - Will finally take some positions at 133  - and if broken down, will wait till 110 and then 85 Good luck, all AMD Daily- 21 Apy 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  @CaptainTiger  @Deposit   $AMD(AMD)$  
Simple levels for AMD to buy in - 133 and 110
avatarAsphen
04-21

Upcoming earnings will define TSLA direction. Looks bearish to 96 if negative reaction

Price action Update (21 Apr 2024) - As shared previously, 145 to 160 is a mysterious range of play - TSLA is now navigating between that range, heading down to 145 - MA5 and MA20 are close to one another, but MA5 looks to break below significantly soon - Breaking down below 145 would see 134 not holding well and 119 being a significant stand - Extreme bearish-ness from earnings will see target of 96 My plays - Nibbled shares since 180 - Sold puts strike 145 - Will see earnings on 23 Apr to see whether to secure more shares if it reaches 119 Good luck, all! TSLA Daily - 21 Apr 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  
Upcoming earnings will define TSLA direction. Looks bearish to 96 if negative reaction
avatarAsphen
2023-05-13
Interesting AMD - The lower high and higher low gives rise to a tapering channel/wedge - The lower high on 10 May and higher low shapes the price action into a tapering wedge/channel (white lines) - The median is about 88+ - MA5 has crossed MA20 - Friday found support again at 94 (previous bull flag and support) - AMD has to show itself next week(s) by staying above 88 (also Fib 61.8) to maintain a possible breakout of the tapering channel  - If it breaks below 88, then very possible to break below channel which would come up to 85 as a support Hourly Chart - Sell channel for a long time recently changed to buy channel - Was on way up when earnings brought it down to 80 but since back on track in the buy channel My Watches - Another lower high would mean 100/102 are near term limit
avatarAsphen
2023-02-26
AMD still looks good though market is consolidating now - Note that price action had broken out of sell channel and now still at the top side of a buy channel - It got rejected at the top end of the buy channel and now finding support below - Interesting key levels ==> fib 38.2 (78) - where we are now (can it hold?!) ==> fib 50 (75) - confluence with gap fill! also MA50!!! Could also have MA5 resistance! ==> fib 61.8 (70) - confluence with gap fill! also lower end of buy channel! so, plenty of confluence of support going forward for AMD!  Personally, I will go with the trend channel support of 70 as the support level to go for with a note on equal low at 62. Breaking below 62 is very bearish.  Upside, above 90 has quite an overhead supply.
avatarAsphen
2022-05-05
AMD - Good structure built - As we know it gapped up from earnings- Importantly, it filled the gap before going back up ==> Built structure- To break 100, it now has structure below to support it- If it breaks 100, it needs to retest 100 in pullback before it can go 105/110. - Or pullback to 95.@TigerEvents@TigerStars@Deposit@YTiong
avatarAsphen
02-18

AAPL - Still hopeful of the handle formation down to 178

Price action (18 Feb 2024) - Cup was formed back back 14 Dec 2023 - Handle had been forming since then - Lower high had so far been set also with rejection off blue MA50 and also now breaking below purple MA200! Bullish - Got to have a firm stay above 178 and break 184 and then out of the trend channel Bearish  - Continued breakdown and testing 178 - Failing 178 brings 174 as the key level down to 165 Approach - Selling cautious puts and will nibble shares once we get to 174 and seeing how the candles formed there AAPL - Daily - 18 Feb 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  
AAPL - Still hopeful of the handle formation down to 178
avatarAsphen
2023-02-26
Where will GOOG find good support? - Notable range is from 86 to 101  - Without a clear break of 101 and staying above, there is just no bullish bias; Note too that above 104 is quite an overhead supply resistance - Bear flag extension playing out goes to 84 which is almost aligned with bottom of range - 84 to 87 is a good support range Personally, I like a support level coming up.  - Range 75-77 is a confluence of volume profile node and also the longer term trend line - 75 would be a good support level @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @LMSunshine  @melso
avatarAsphen
2023-07-08
AMD - Gap filled and Rejected by MA20; 108 is key level to watch! Daily Chart - Gap 108 to 117 has been filled! ==> What do they say? Almost all gaps get filled!  - Bottom of gap 108 held in the test of support - MA5 yellow has crossed below MA20 green 21 June - Price action has come up to test MA20 green on 5 July and got rejected - Price action is now in an early buy channel 30mins Chart - Price action in the gap range was in a series of buy and sell channels - General upwards trending as seen also on Daily Chart What to watch for? - Will the buy channel continue? Key is need to break 116/117 which would then also bring about a MA5 cross above MA20 - Any break below 108 (also the MA50 blue coming up) will mean another leg down to 102 or 94 (bear flag playing out) Support wise
avatarAsphen
2023-10-14

TSLA looks weak ahead of earnings; In a classic triangle: Going to be explosive!

Daily Chart - What an incredible setup! - Triangle formation - All MA lines are compressed in the middle  - Price action is right now around MA20  - Bollinger Bands are contracted and both pointing inwards ==> All points to a super explosive move (up or down) pre-post-earnings! Where can it go? - Upper near term limit is 270 (Upper bollinger band, but if it breaks up, BB will point upwards and move accordingly to possible 300) - Upper bottom limit is the range 240-232 again (mentioned multiple times in my analysis so far) with a breakdown towards 219 and 209 So choose your direction. No one can tell which way it will go. Observe, React, Don't Predict.  If there are any pre-earning moves, I will take strangles edges.  Good luck on 18 Oct 2023, all! TSLA Daily Char
TSLA looks weak ahead of earnings; In a classic triangle: Going to be explosive!
avatarAsphen
2022-05-05
Reality check - Post Papa Powell Rally Okay, gone into deeper analysis today after the papa rally fever is over....haha- the big rally is last 1.5hrs only so you can see the structural support is not there- market internal structure points to pull back today (423) and (419/420)- possible bull run might still happen (just saying pullback is possible after last night sharp run was only the last 90mins)@YTiong@Deposit@TigerStars@TigerEvents

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