Asphen
Asphen
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avatarAsphen
2023-05-21
TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==> This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!
avatarAsphen
07-28

NVDA Repeat? - This time is different?

If you think it will be similar, then the pullback is in and we are about to bounce upwards! If you think this time is different, then pullback might be to fib 61.8 which coincidentally is 100 and gap fill down to 95 I'm leaning to the latter as it would be a great opportunity to nibble.  My puts strike are there too. NVDA Daily Chart - 28 July 2024 @macroB  @Deposit  @CaptainTiger  @TigerStars  @Melson   $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  
NVDA Repeat? - This time is different?
avatarAsphen
2023-06-10
SPY breakout of 4 day balance! Rejected off call options wall at 430! BIG catalyst week coming up! - Zero DTE call options stopped SPY run! Big call option wall at 430 meant that market makers will not want market to end Friday above 430! - A big rejection candle formed on Friday with a touch into 431+ as shared in TA Thurs - It is NOT bearish until it is.  - It held above the magical 429/430 level so it awaits CPI Tues! PPI/FOMC Wed! - 4 day area of balance 426 and 429 will be key; Monday might see it break below back into range - On 5min chart, notice that 429 came strongly into support meant bears do not want to take it downwards too far - Note that there is lack of support below 426 down to 421 My watch - If it breaks back below into range 426-429 - If it stays above 426 Overall,
avatarAsphen
2023-09-10
TSLA inverse Head and Shoulder still in play; But hinges on CPI not being too hot! - Coming week CPI market expectation is a high of 0.6! If the figures do not come in lower than 0.6, we might be in for a rude awakening. - MA20 still at 240 support  - MA50 and MA5 remains resistance - Likely to stay within range between 240 and 260 until CPI clarity - A hot CPI will likely see 220 down to 209 and then 190 My watch/play - Sold puts (look to close higher strikes in any run early week) - Will sell lower strike puts to capture the pre-CPI volatility  Good luck, all! @macroB  @CaptainTiger  @Deposit  
avatarAsphen
2023-09-24

Apple defines the S&P500 and both are showing similar signs indeed; Possible up to test resistance and then fall to another low!

Recent key movements - MA5 crossed below MA20 on 3 Aug, tested lower BB and crossed above MA20 29 Aug, tested the upper BB. Back down below MA20 but not tested BB yet.  - Bullish buys around Fib 38.2 level at 178 and also triangle support at 175 Possible Bearish movement (more likely) - Reading a buy push to MA20 (180) before rejecting down to the lower BB and MA20 at 165 (MA200 purple and also Fib level) - More likely movement in conjunction with S&P500 setup with possible bearish move below 430 Possible Bullish Movement (less likely) - Break MA20 (180) and then test triangle and break MA50 at about 184/185, rejecting at upper BB at 190 My plays - Still on manual strangles with sold puts 140 and 145 - If breaks above or testing MA20, might consider selling calls for upper strangl
Apple defines the S&P500 and both are showing similar signs indeed; Possible up to test resistance and then fall to another low!
avatarAsphen
04-21

Will GOOG continue to 163 or struggle below 155 down to 137?

Price action (20 Apr 2024) - Price action at key level 155 ==> Also where MA5 is touching MA20 now - If MA5 cross below MA20, then is bearish - A cross below MA20 would mean 163 no longer in play and a break below 155 - Look for a back test of 155 on the way up  - Any failures will mean continued bearishness to 137 - Note the earnings on 25 Apr 2024 ==> a negative reaction will certainly mean 137 coming up! My plays - Been nibbling GOOG shares since months back - Cost base 130 - Sold puts strike 143 and 135 Good luck, all!! GOOG Daily - 20 Apr 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  
Will GOOG continue to 163 or struggle below 155 down to 137?
avatarAsphen
02-04

Strong response off 180 from AAPL as expected (Fib 61.8)

Price action (4 Feb 2024) - Fib 61.8 pullback 180 was a strong bounce - Could it be a big dead cat bounce to form the right shoulder for Head and Shoulder and then break down below 180 to 165 (range play) - As they say, it is only a confirmed pattern until the neckline break, so for now, the recovery seems on. Got to see how AAPL moves next week.  - A 180 hold and breakout is still quite bullish My plays - Selling puts still for now AAPL Daily - 4 Feb 2024 @melson  @CaptainTiger  @TigerStars  @macroB  
Strong response off 180 from AAPL as expected (Fib 61.8)
avatarAsphen
02-18

TSLA - Macro / Micro View in Charts

TSLA Analysis - 1 of 2 View (macro view) Update 18 Feb 2024 - Fib 61.8 is at 177 which was the low of the most recent support coming in - We are still in a downtrend channel and starting to build strength from the 177 Fib bounce - The top side of the channel is "alas" back at 255 again (previous sharing of key resistance levels) TSLA - Macro View - 18 Feb 2024 TSLA Analysis - 2 of 2 View (micro view) Update 18 Feb 2024 - Previously shared the formation of the "island" with the gap down from earnings (181 to 193) - Whether island reversal happens or not depends on strength of the counter - Have been in the island range for awhile and last week saw the initial break out of the range to fill the gap - Reached 50% gap fill and also VWAP at 200! ==> as shared many times, 50% gap fill is usua
TSLA - Macro / Micro View in Charts
avatarAsphen
04-21

AAPL breakdown below key level 169; Bounce then 155?

Price action (20 Apr 2024) - MA5 yellow below MA20 green ==> bearish - All MA lines are pointing downwards - Breakdown below 169 (key support) last week signal bearish - A bounce could still happen with resistance backtest at 169 - A failure of test of 169 would certainly bring 156 or 155 into the target My plays - Been nibbling small amounts - Had been selling puts (Strike 165 but closed last week safe) - Had been reselling puts strike 145 (next key level support) Good luck, all! AAPL Daily - 20 Apr 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  @CaptainTiger  
AAPL breakdown below key level 169; Bounce then 155?
avatarAsphen
08-11

Opportunity for MSFT

Trending - Monthly shows a key higher low possibility at 340 - Fib retracement extreme bearishnesss of 1.618 also points to 340 - Near term Fib 38.2 points to 370 and 61.8 points 310 and Fib 50 points to 340 - Love the accumulation possibility between 370 down to 340 and then 310 if it goes that low JCT impact  - Above thesis coincides with a potential cool CPI coming week leading to even greater pressure for 18 Sept rate cuts leading to Japan Carry Trade unwinding.  Being as patient as I can be. My golden opportunity to load up on MSFT. Been a long time wait.  Good luck, all. MSFT Monthly - 11 Aug 2024 @macroB  @Deposit  
Opportunity for MSFT
avatarAsphen
07-21

TSLA earnings - 23 July 2024

Follow up from my post 1 week ago Turning out to be a good liquidation of my TSLA shares some days back.  Post earnings, will see. Will my puts get assigned? Will know on 26 July! Double top playing out goes to 200. TSLA Daily - 21 July 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  @CaptainTiger  @Deposit   $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  
TSLA earnings - 23 July 2024
avatarAsphen
03-30

TSLA remains good above 160; Key to get over 182; Key Q1 delivery numbers next week!

Price action (Update 30 Mar 2024) - Since the bear flag rejection off 209, 199 broke and it has since found a good bounce off the "miracle range 160-145" - The last time we tested 160 was back in Apr 2023 - Past action between 160 and 182 had been weak price action but recent had shown some volume - Positive is MA5 is now touching MA20 and a positive cross will bode well for break above of 182 Bullish - Simply need to break 182 and 199/209. Failing any of these levels will just mean bearish! Bearish - Another test of 160 will likely mean a break below towards 150 and 145 and 134 down to 119 My plays - Continued holding since accumulation of shares down to 160 - Will increase positions if 160 breaks below and take at 145 - Sold puts strike 145 Good luck, all! TSLA Daily - 31 Mar 2024
TSLA remains good above 160; Key to get over 182; Key Q1 delivery numbers next week!
avatarAsphen
2023-12-16

PYPL back in play?

Good price action since 27 Oct 2023 - MA5 crossed above MA20 with the earnings on 27 Oct - MA5/MA20 had been really tight together with the upper bollinger band - Cup was well formed at 60 and once the breakout from the handle, it is now going for the next key level of 65 FED and Company Strength - With Powell's magnificent showing last week, PYPL might benefit from the "rate cuts" or easing - Good new leadership ==> New CEO comes from a credible front with INTUIT - Strong financials ==> PYPL still has a good set of financials that will soon bear fruit with the new direction of the CEO Price action forward - Go for cup formation at 65 and handle formation towards 70 (also 50% gap fill)  - Full gap fill at 74 would be next - Downside support looks good at 56 then 52 Good luck, al
PYPL back in play?
avatarAsphen
04-21

Upcoming earnings will define TSLA direction. Looks bearish to 96 if negative reaction

Price action Update (21 Apr 2024) - As shared previously, 145 to 160 is a mysterious range of play - TSLA is now navigating between that range, heading down to 145 - MA5 and MA20 are close to one another, but MA5 looks to break below significantly soon - Breaking down below 145 would see 134 not holding well and 119 being a significant stand - Extreme bearish-ness from earnings will see target of 96 My plays - Nibbled shares since 180 - Sold puts strike 145 - Will see earnings on 23 Apr to see whether to secure more shares if it reaches 119 Good luck, all! TSLA Daily - 21 Apr 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  <
Upcoming earnings will define TSLA direction. Looks bearish to 96 if negative reaction
avatarAsphen
07-28

AMD - Good setup for upcoming earnings

Good earnings response - Bottom of 133 is in and a move up and form the right shoulder off 153+ and go upwards ==> Good to look for the right shoulder! Poor earnings response - My preferred (which would create a good opportunity) Will provide an excellent opportunity to load the truck at 121 down to 102! Good setup for the future. Bullish next few years. AMD Daily Chart - 28 July 2024 @macroB  @Deposit  @CaptainTiger  @TigerStars  @Melson   $Advanced Micr
AMD - Good setup for upcoming earnings
avatarAsphen
2023-05-13
Interesting AMD - The lower high and higher low gives rise to a tapering channel/wedge - The lower high on 10 May and higher low shapes the price action into a tapering wedge/channel (white lines) - The median is about 88+ - MA5 has crossed MA20 - Friday found support again at 94 (previous bull flag and support) - AMD has to show itself next week(s) by staying above 88 (also Fib 61.8) to maintain a possible breakout of the tapering channel  - If it breaks below 88, then very possible to break below channel which would come up to 85 as a support Hourly Chart - Sell channel for a long time recently changed to buy channel - Was on way up when earnings brought it down to 80 but since back on track in the buy channel My Watches - Another lower high would mean 100/102 are near term limits -
avatarAsphen
08-04

Get ready for a TSLA ride!

- Bounce will be met by sell demand - Any attempts to test 232 and fail, would mean a breakdown - Nearest target is 219 first - Looking for some reversal price action when it reaches the key levels of 178/181 Brace yourselves, everyone. TSLA rollercoaster incoming. TSLA Daily Chart - 4 Aug 2024 @macroB  @Deposit  @CaptainTiger  @TigerStars  @Melson   $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  
Get ready for a TSLA ride!
avatarAsphen
2023-02-26
AMD still looks good though market is consolidating now - Note that price action had broken out of sell channel and now still at the top side of a buy channel - It got rejected at the top end of the buy channel and now finding support below - Interesting key levels ==> fib 38.2 (78) - where we are now (can it hold?!) ==> fib 50 (75) - confluence with gap fill! also MA50!!! Could also have MA5 resistance! ==> fib 61.8 (70) - confluence with gap fill! also lower end of buy channel! so, plenty of confluence of support going forward for AMD!  Personally, I will go with the trend channel support of 70 as the support level to go for with a note on equal low at 62. Breaking below 62 is very bearish.  Upside, above 90 has quite an overhead supply.
avatarAsphen
2022-05-05
AMD - Good structure built - As we know it gapped up from earnings- Importantly, it filled the gap before going back up ==> Built structure- To break 100, it now has structure below to support it- If it breaks 100, it needs to retest 100 in pullback before it can go 105/110. - Or pullback to 95.@TigerEvents@TigerStars@Deposit@YTiong
avatarAsphen
02-18

AAPL - Still hopeful of the handle formation down to 178

Price action (18 Feb 2024) - Cup was formed back back 14 Dec 2023 - Handle had been forming since then - Lower high had so far been set also with rejection off blue MA50 and also now breaking below purple MA200! Bullish - Got to have a firm stay above 178 and break 184 and then out of the trend channel Bearish  - Continued breakdown and testing 178 - Failing 178 brings 174 as the key level down to 165 Approach - Selling cautious puts and will nibble shares once we get to 174 and seeing how the candles formed there AAPL - Daily - 18 Feb 2024 @melson  @TigerStars  @macroB  
AAPL - Still hopeful of the handle formation down to 178

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