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2021-07-10

$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$?

2021-07-01

$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$????

2023-02-10

$AMC院线(AMC)$ How did it become a junk stock again?🤦🏻‍♂️

2021-07-18

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$?

2021-03-06

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U.S. Senate Democrats reach agreement on extending unemployment insurance

2021-07-12

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$???

2021-03-14

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Is Biden's infrastructure expected to pass within the year?

2021-08-31

$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$??

2021-06-28

$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$????????

2021-06-07

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Inc.(MMAT)$????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150314945","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114821882,"gmtCreate":1623067163846,"gmtModify":1704195336645,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114821882","repostId":"1171406130","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171406130","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623066365,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171406130?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 19:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The battle of \"6.18\", I am afraid that it is difficult for Gome to name it","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171406130","media":" 锌刻度","summary":"黄光裕，迎来重掌国美的一大挑战。\n一年一度的“6·18”，堪称电商上半年的关键之战，京东、苏宁、拼多多、淘宝等无不摩拳擦掌。\n对国美而言，则是一个检验“复兴”效果的契机。\n“希望通过我们的奋斗，我们的","content":"<p>Huang Guangyu, ushered in a major challenge to regain control of Gome.</p><p>The annual \"6.18\" can be called the key battle of e-commerce in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Suning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Taobao, etc. are all gearing up.</p><p>For Gome, it is an opportunity to test the effect of \"revival\".</p><p>\"I hope that through our struggle and our efforts, we will strive to restore the original market position of the enterprise in the next 18 months.\" Huang Guangyu made a bold statement on the third day of his official release.</p><p>However, Gome has been left behind for more than a decade.</p><p>Its retail sales revenue in 2020 was 44.119 billion yuan, compared with the same period.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002024\">Suning.com</a>The sales scale of commodities is 416.315 billion yuan, which is an order of magnitude behind the two that used to be comparable.</p><p>So, what cards can Gome, which has turned from conservative to offensive, play in this \"6.18\" war? Under the pattern of e-commerce giants, can we find a gap to jump up? Home improvement market, will it become the second curve of Gome?</p><p><b>Live broadcast is weak, short video is reduced to advertising site</b></p><p>\"I heard that Maotai was easy to grab, so I went to Gome,\" E Zijun said.</p><p>E Zijun told Zinc Scale that Maotai on Gome's e-commerce APP \"True Happiness\" was as difficult to grab, but later he learned that it was \"routine\": Xiaomei Help, a sharing commission tool on \"True Happiness\", can get a commission of up to 6 yuan for every successful promotion of a member, and the so-called Maotai is one of its biggest gimmicks.</p><p>In E Zijun's view, \"True Happiness\" followed Taobao to launch the live broadcast function, JD.COM to launch the 99 membership function, and Pinduoduo to launch the game and group buying function. \"At best, it is a collection, and at worst, it is a stitching monster!\"</p><p>The zinc scale survey found that,<b>The above functions of \"true happiness\" are still the conventional gameplay of e-commerce, which is still far from seizing users' minds.</b></p><p>For example, the live broadcast is regarded as a value growth point by Gome, and Huang Guangyu has high hopes. However, the live broadcast on \"True Happiness\" is quite simple, mostly offline store scenes in Gome, and the clerk directly serves as the anchor.</p><p>According to Times Finance, since the beginning of the year, Gome has asked employees to guide customers to place orders through the \"True Happiness\" APP, among which the live assessment target requires that the number of viewers per game should not be less than 30.</p><p>After a week's observation, the zinc scale found that most live broadcasts lacked popularity. In most cases, the number of viewers was maintained in double digits, even less than 30 people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524f5566e23fc3c50ec348a5996b1ccc\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"1476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Audience Less than 30</p><p>To make matters worse,<b>The short videos of \"really happy\" are almost all advertisements of manufacturers.</b></p><p>For example, \"True Happiness\" moves the slot machine game into \"True Happiness\". Users can get small tiger coins by logging in or shopping on the activity page every day. Users can choose a multiplication of 2 times, 5 times or 8 times for lottery drawing, so as to have the opportunity to get a high tiger coin reward.</p><p>The little tiger coin can be exchanged for real happy beans, which can be cashed out when shopping. Therefore, there is a saying on the Internet that \"the little tiger takes a fight, and the bicycle becomes a motorcycle\".</p><p>The problem is,<b>This style of play is obviously walking on the edge of the law, and the practice of \"True Happiness\" embedding it in the e-commerce system is questionable</b>。</p><p><b>Is there just bluff behind the \"price war\"?</b></p><p>Actually,<b>Price war is the killer of \"true happiness\".</b></p><p>Near May Day, Huang Guangyu sent an open letter: \"After 34 years of deep cultivation in the retail industry, Gome deeply feels the pain of low-price gimmicks in the industry, and knows the difficulty of low-price sustainability. It is convinced that only the real low price of high cost performance, winning by quantity, small profits but quick turnover and the real support of manufacturers and partners can meet the interests of consumers and drive market prosperity.\"</p><p>This means that Gome has raised the banner of \"price war\".</p><p>During the \"6.18\" period, the price war of \"True Happiness\" covered electrical appliances, department stores, drinks and other fields, in order to find a gap for jumping up under the pattern of e-commerce giants.</p><p>Zhao Bingcong, who is decorating, has a deep understanding of this.</p><p>Because he is in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, it is difficult to dry the clothes on Huangmeitian's balcony. Zhao Bingcong has suffered before. This time, he wants to buy a dryer for his new home. In contrast, Gome is almost the lowest in the whole network.</p><p>\"The neighbor recommended Siemens WT47W5681W, which also comes with its own sterilization function.\" Zhao Bingcong said that the price of Gome is 7,499 yuan, which is 100 yuan less than that of mainstream e-commerce platforms. \"You can buy one or two more T-shirts.\"</p><p>However, Zhao Bingcong told the zinc scale that only some household appliances on \"True Happiness\" have a price advantage, while most of the other products are not dominant, and some are even at a disadvantage.</p><p>In other words,<b>The firepower density of Gome's \"price war\" is not as large as imagined.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">GOME Retail</a>According to the 2020 annual report, as of December 31, 2020, Gome Retail had cash and cash equivalents of 9.597 billion yuan, and the net cash flow generated from operating activities was 1.851 billion yuan, which shows that its foundation of \"price war\" is not deep.</p><p>In fact, the zinc scale survey found that the current \"really happy\" activity of \"1 yuan purchase for newcomers\" is useless because the coupons have already been robbed, but the publicity in the APP has not been pulled down, which causes dissatisfaction among new consumers. The volume of \"don't play if you can't afford it\" is quite high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff327127cb836d1a50c551d49bff644\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">No coupon activity is useless</p><p>This confirms from the side,<b>Gome's \"price war\" lacks stamina and urgently needs to replenish ammunition.</b></p><p>An Internet observer told Zinc Scale: \"At the moment when Internet traffic is peaking and customer acquisition costs are high, if Gome's low-cost subsidy can't be continuously exported and covered in a large area, the possibility of overtaking in corners is doubtful.\"</p><p><b>E-commerce is left behind, and it is difficult to break the traffic bottleneck when the curve attacks</b></p><p>Under the above disadvantages,<b>Gome is afraid of difficulty staging corner overtaking in traditional fields</b>In fact, the official is well aware of this, and is actively seeking a breakthrough to solve the problem.</p><p>\"If Gome continues to promote the same e-commerce model as JD.COM Tmall, it will be difficult to form a new pattern and competitiveness.\" He Yangqing, CEO of Gome Investment Company, said in an interview with the media, \"There are very few leading companies in the home improvement industry, and the market share is even less than 1%.\"</p><p>Yes,<b>Gome is aiming at the home improvement market.</b></p><p>According to the big data of Aowei Cloud Network, the decoration demand of the stock housing market is expected to exceed 35 million sets during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a substantial increase of more than 77% compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan period.</p><p>Relevant data show that with the increase of the proportion of decoration in fourth-tier cities and below, the home improvement market will reach a scale of 6 trillion yuan by around 2025, which is four times that of the home appliance industry.</p><p>To this end, Gome is eager to incorporate scheme design, contract signing, material procurement, construction acceptance, etc. into a unified platform to create a closed loop of transparent decoration.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326a3b0e0b05fb12c2c69139cef10128\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gome takes a stake in dressers as a starting point to cut into the home improvement market</p><p>Huang Guangyu said: \"In the industrial chain, we work together to optimize, and all parties will standardize this industry step by step, giving everyone more sustainable development space with implementation paths.\"</p><p>Nevertheless,<b>Gome's breakthrough path may not be smooth</b>。</p><p>Transparent decoration is not a new thing, but it is not ideal to land. The reason is that the home improvement chain is long, there are many links, and it is difficult to trace. Especially in the case of low popularization of digitalization, supervision has become a difficult problem.</p><p>This is not something that can change overnight.</p><p>In addition, Gome takes the platform mode, which does not involve specific decoration business. In essence, it still does traffic business. The problem is that there is no shortage of home improvement platforms in the market, including vertical home improvement platforms such as Qijia.com and comprehensive home improvement platforms such as Tmall Home Improvement. So under the confrontation, why does Gome attract home improvement companies of all sizes?</p><p>Go around and go back to the problem of how to break through the traffic bottleneck.</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Pessimistic attitude: \"Gome has ambitions for future development, but its prospects and plans are unclear. Considering the fierce competition and unclear development prospects of the business, it reiterates its 'underweight' rating.\"</p><p>All in all,<b>The road to Gome's revival still has a long way to go</b>On the one hand, it is necessary to transfer the advantages of offline to online to open up new channels of traffic; on the other hand, it is necessary to convert traffic into actual sales volume, so that the market-oriented defensive in home appliances, home improvement and other markets is offensive.</p><p>From this point of view, there is not much time left for Gome to redeem itself.</p>","source":"lsy1568158634801","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The battle of \"6.18\", I am afraid that it is difficult for Gome to name it</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe battle of \"6.18\", I am afraid that it is difficult for Gome to name it\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 锌刻度</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 19:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Huang Guangyu, ushered in a major challenge to regain control of Gome.</p><p>The annual \"6.18\" can be called the key battle of e-commerce in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Suning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Taobao, etc. are all gearing up.</p><p>For Gome, it is an opportunity to test the effect of \"revival\".</p><p>\"I hope that through our struggle and our efforts, we will strive to restore the original market position of the enterprise in the next 18 months.\" Huang Guangyu made a bold statement on the third day of his official release.</p><p>However, Gome has been left behind for more than a decade.</p><p>Its retail sales revenue in 2020 was 44.119 billion yuan, compared with the same period.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002024\">Suning.com</a>The sales scale of commodities is 416.315 billion yuan, which is an order of magnitude behind the two that used to be comparable.</p><p>So, what cards can Gome, which has turned from conservative to offensive, play in this \"6.18\" war? Under the pattern of e-commerce giants, can we find a gap to jump up? Home improvement market, will it become the second curve of Gome?</p><p><b>Live broadcast is weak, short video is reduced to advertising site</b></p><p>\"I heard that Maotai was easy to grab, so I went to Gome,\" E Zijun said.</p><p>E Zijun told Zinc Scale that Maotai on Gome's e-commerce APP \"True Happiness\" was as difficult to grab, but later he learned that it was \"routine\": Xiaomei Help, a sharing commission tool on \"True Happiness\", can get a commission of up to 6 yuan for every successful promotion of a member, and the so-called Maotai is one of its biggest gimmicks.</p><p>In E Zijun's view, \"True Happiness\" followed Taobao to launch the live broadcast function, JD.COM to launch the 99 membership function, and Pinduoduo to launch the game and group buying function. \"At best, it is a collection, and at worst, it is a stitching monster!\"</p><p>The zinc scale survey found that,<b>The above functions of \"true happiness\" are still the conventional gameplay of e-commerce, which is still far from seizing users' minds.</b></p><p>For example, the live broadcast is regarded as a value growth point by Gome, and Huang Guangyu has high hopes. However, the live broadcast on \"True Happiness\" is quite simple, mostly offline store scenes in Gome, and the clerk directly serves as the anchor.</p><p>According to Times Finance, since the beginning of the year, Gome has asked employees to guide customers to place orders through the \"True Happiness\" APP, among which the live assessment target requires that the number of viewers per game should not be less than 30.</p><p>After a week's observation, the zinc scale found that most live broadcasts lacked popularity. In most cases, the number of viewers was maintained in double digits, even less than 30 people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524f5566e23fc3c50ec348a5996b1ccc\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"1476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Audience Less than 30</p><p>To make matters worse,<b>The short videos of \"really happy\" are almost all advertisements of manufacturers.</b></p><p>For example, \"True Happiness\" moves the slot machine game into \"True Happiness\". Users can get small tiger coins by logging in or shopping on the activity page every day. Users can choose a multiplication of 2 times, 5 times or 8 times for lottery drawing, so as to have the opportunity to get a high tiger coin reward.</p><p>The little tiger coin can be exchanged for real happy beans, which can be cashed out when shopping. Therefore, there is a saying on the Internet that \"the little tiger takes a fight, and the bicycle becomes a motorcycle\".</p><p>The problem is,<b>This style of play is obviously walking on the edge of the law, and the practice of \"True Happiness\" embedding it in the e-commerce system is questionable</b>。</p><p><b>Is there just bluff behind the \"price war\"?</b></p><p>Actually,<b>Price war is the killer of \"true happiness\".</b></p><p>Near May Day, Huang Guangyu sent an open letter: \"After 34 years of deep cultivation in the retail industry, Gome deeply feels the pain of low-price gimmicks in the industry, and knows the difficulty of low-price sustainability. It is convinced that only the real low price of high cost performance, winning by quantity, small profits but quick turnover and the real support of manufacturers and partners can meet the interests of consumers and drive market prosperity.\"</p><p>This means that Gome has raised the banner of \"price war\".</p><p>During the \"6.18\" period, the price war of \"True Happiness\" covered electrical appliances, department stores, drinks and other fields, in order to find a gap for jumping up under the pattern of e-commerce giants.</p><p>Zhao Bingcong, who is decorating, has a deep understanding of this.</p><p>Because he is in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, it is difficult to dry the clothes on Huangmeitian's balcony. Zhao Bingcong has suffered before. This time, he wants to buy a dryer for his new home. In contrast, Gome is almost the lowest in the whole network.</p><p>\"The neighbor recommended Siemens WT47W5681W, which also comes with its own sterilization function.\" Zhao Bingcong said that the price of Gome is 7,499 yuan, which is 100 yuan less than that of mainstream e-commerce platforms. \"You can buy one or two more T-shirts.\"</p><p>However, Zhao Bingcong told the zinc scale that only some household appliances on \"True Happiness\" have a price advantage, while most of the other products are not dominant, and some are even at a disadvantage.</p><p>In other words,<b>The firepower density of Gome's \"price war\" is not as large as imagined.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">GOME Retail</a>According to the 2020 annual report, as of December 31, 2020, Gome Retail had cash and cash equivalents of 9.597 billion yuan, and the net cash flow generated from operating activities was 1.851 billion yuan, which shows that its foundation of \"price war\" is not deep.</p><p>In fact, the zinc scale survey found that the current \"really happy\" activity of \"1 yuan purchase for newcomers\" is useless because the coupons have already been robbed, but the publicity in the APP has not been pulled down, which causes dissatisfaction among new consumers. The volume of \"don't play if you can't afford it\" is quite high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff327127cb836d1a50c551d49bff644\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"753\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">No coupon activity is useless</p><p>This confirms from the side,<b>Gome's \"price war\" lacks stamina and urgently needs to replenish ammunition.</b></p><p>An Internet observer told Zinc Scale: \"At the moment when Internet traffic is peaking and customer acquisition costs are high, if Gome's low-cost subsidy can't be continuously exported and covered in a large area, the possibility of overtaking in corners is doubtful.\"</p><p><b>E-commerce is left behind, and it is difficult to break the traffic bottleneck when the curve attacks</b></p><p>Under the above disadvantages,<b>Gome is afraid of difficulty staging corner overtaking in traditional fields</b>In fact, the official is well aware of this, and is actively seeking a breakthrough to solve the problem.</p><p>\"If Gome continues to promote the same e-commerce model as JD.COM Tmall, it will be difficult to form a new pattern and competitiveness.\" He Yangqing, CEO of Gome Investment Company, said in an interview with the media, \"There are very few leading companies in the home improvement industry, and the market share is even less than 1%.\"</p><p>Yes,<b>Gome is aiming at the home improvement market.</b></p><p>According to the big data of Aowei Cloud Network, the decoration demand of the stock housing market is expected to exceed 35 million sets during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a substantial increase of more than 77% compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan period.</p><p>Relevant data show that with the increase of the proportion of decoration in fourth-tier cities and below, the home improvement market will reach a scale of 6 trillion yuan by around 2025, which is four times that of the home appliance industry.</p><p>To this end, Gome is eager to incorporate scheme design, contract signing, material procurement, construction acceptance, etc. into a unified platform to create a closed loop of transparent decoration.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326a3b0e0b05fb12c2c69139cef10128\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gome takes a stake in dressers as a starting point to cut into the home improvement market</p><p>Huang Guangyu said: \"In the industrial chain, we work together to optimize, and all parties will standardize this industry step by step, giving everyone more sustainable development space with implementation paths.\"</p><p>Nevertheless,<b>Gome's breakthrough path may not be smooth</b>。</p><p>Transparent decoration is not a new thing, but it is not ideal to land. The reason is that the home improvement chain is long, there are many links, and it is difficult to trace. Especially in the case of low popularization of digitalization, supervision has become a difficult problem.</p><p>This is not something that can change overnight.</p><p>In addition, Gome takes the platform mode, which does not involve specific decoration business. In essence, it still does traffic business. The problem is that there is no shortage of home improvement platforms in the market, including vertical home improvement platforms such as Qijia.com and comprehensive home improvement platforms such as Tmall Home Improvement. So under the confrontation, why does Gome attract home improvement companies of all sizes?</p><p>Go around and go back to the problem of how to break through the traffic bottleneck.</p><p>In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Pessimistic attitude: \"Gome has ambitions for future development, but its prospects and plans are unclear. Considering the fierce competition and unclear development prospects of the business, it reiterates its 'underweight' rating.\"</p><p>All in all,<b>The road to Gome's revival still has a long way to go</b>On the one hand, it is necessary to transfer the advantages of offline to online to open up new channels of traffic; on the other hand, it is necessary to convert traffic into actual sales volume, so that the market-oriented defensive in home appliances, home improvement and other markets is offensive.</p><p>From this point of view, there is not much time left for Gome to redeem itself.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m-9VfbcT8jzObWdeYZgBzA\"> 锌刻度</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78d2f00cbc26b40aac0942a0a777ee","relate_stocks":{"00493":"国美零售"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m-9VfbcT8jzObWdeYZgBzA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171406130","content_text":"黄光裕，迎来重掌国美的一大挑战。\n一年一度的“6·18”，堪称电商上半年的关键之战，京东、苏宁、拼多多、淘宝等无不摩拳擦掌。\n对国美而言，则是一个检验“复兴”效果的契机。\n“希望通过我们的奋斗，我们的努力，力争用未来18个月的时间，使企业恢复原有的市场地位。”黄光裕于正式获释第三天放出豪言。\n然而，国美掉队已有十余年。\n其2020年零售销售收入为441.19亿元，同期苏宁易购的商品销售规模为4163.15亿元，昔日比肩的两者，如今差了足足一个量级。\n那么，从保守转为进攻的国美，在这场“6·18”大战中，有哪些牌可打？在电商巨头林立的格局之下，能否寻找到上跃的空隙？家装市场，会成为国美的第二曲线吗？\n直播乏力，短视频沦为广告地盘\n“听说茅台好抢，才去的国美。”鄂子君如是说。\n鄂子君告诉锌刻度，国美电商APP“真快乐”上的茅台一样难抢，后来才知道是被“套路”了：“真快乐”上的分享赚佣金工具小美帮帮，每成功推广一位会员即可获得最高6元的佣金，而所谓的茅台好抢正是其最大噱头之一。\n在鄂子君看来，“真快乐”效仿淘宝推出了直播功能，效仿京东推出了九九会员功能，效仿拼多多推出了游戏、拼团抢购功能，“往好了说是集大成，往坏了说不就是缝合怪嘛！”\n锌刻度调查发现，“真快乐”的上述功能依然是电商的常规玩法，离抢占用户心智尚远。\n譬如，直播被国美视为价值增长点，被黄光裕寄予厚望，不过“真快乐”上的直播颇为单一，多为国美线下门店场景，店员直接兼任主播。\n据《时代财经》报道，从年初开始，国美要求员工引导顾客通过“真快乐”APP下单，其中直播考核目标要求每场观看人数不得低于30人。\n经过一周的观察，锌刻度发现多数直播人气匮乏，多数情况下观众人数维系在两位数，甚至有低于30人情况存在。观众人数低于30\n更为糟糕的是，“真快乐”的短视频几乎全为厂商的宣传广告。\n再譬如，“真快乐”把老虎机游戏搬入“真快乐”，用户每天登陆活动页面签到或购物就能获得小虎币，者选择2倍、5倍或8倍的倍率进行抽奖，从而有机会获得高额小虎币奖励。\n而小虎币可兑换真快乐豆，后者在购物时可抵现，因而网上有“小虎搏一搏，单车变摩托”的说法。\n问题在于，这个打法明显游走在法律边缘，“真快乐”堂而皇之将其植入电商体系的做法值得商榷。\n“价格战”背后只是虚张声势？\n其实，价格战才是“真快乐”的杀手锏。\n临近五一，黄光裕发了一封公开信：“深耕零售业34年，国美深感行业低价噱头化之痛，深知低价可持续性之难，深信只有高性价比、以量取胜、薄利多销的真低价，厂商伙伴的真支持，才能符合消费者的利益和带动市场繁荣。”\n这意味着，国美祭起“价格战”的大旗。\n在“6·18”期间，“真快乐”的价格战范围覆盖电器、百货、酒水等多个领域，以图在电商巨头林立的格局之下，寻找上跃的空隙。\n对此，正在装修的赵冰聪深有体会。\n由于身处江浙地区，遇到黄梅天阳台的衣服难以晾干，赵冰聪之前吃过苦头，这次想为新家添置一台烘干机，对比下来国美差不多为全网最低。\n“邻居推荐的是西门子WT47W5681W，还自带除菌功能。”赵冰聪表示国美售价7499元，到手价比主流电商平台少了100元，“可以再多买一两件T恤了。”\n不过，赵冰聪告诉锌刻度，“真快乐”上仅部分家电具备价格优势，其余商品多数不占优，甚至有的还处于劣势。\n换而言之，国美的“价格战”的火力密度并没有想象的那么大。\n据国美零售2020年年报显示，截至2020年12月31日，国美零售拥有现金及现金等价物为95.97亿元，经营活动产生的现金流量净额为18.51亿元，可见其打“价格战”的底蕴并不深厚。\n事实上，锌刻度调查发现，眼下“真快乐”的“新人专享1元购”活动，因为优惠券早已被抢完，该活动形同虚设，可APP中的宣传并未拉下，从而引起新入的消费者不满，“玩不起就不要玩”声量颇高。没有券活动形同虚设\n这从侧面印证了，国美的“价格战”后劲不足，亟需补充弹药。\n一名互联网观察人士告诉锌刻度：“在互联网流量见顶、获客成本高企的当下，国美的低价补贴打法如若不能持续输出、大面积覆盖，那弯道超车的可能性就存疑。”\n电商掉队，曲线出击也难破流量瓶颈\n上述种种劣势之下，国美恐难在传统领域上演弯道超车，对此官方其实也是心知肚明，进而也在积极寻求一个解题的突破口。\n“国美如果继续推进和京东天猫一样的电商模式，很难形成新的格局和竞争力。”国美投资公司CEO何阳青在接受媒体采访时表示，“家装行业头部公司非常少，市场份额甚至不足1%。”\n是的，国美将突围的目光瞄向了家装市场。\n据奥维云网大数据显示，在十四五期间存量房市场装修需求预计可超过3500万套，相比十三五期间大幅提升超过77%。\n而相关数据显示，随着四线及以下城市装修金额比例上升，家装市场到2025年左右达到6万亿元的规模，这一规模是家电行业的四倍。\n为此，国美渴望将方案设计、合同签订、材料采购、施工验收等纳入统一平台，打造一个透明装修的闭环。国美入股打扮家，以其为切入家装市场的抓手\n黄光裕表示：“在产业链里我们协同进行优化，各方一步一步把这个行业进行规范，给大家更多的可持续的而且有实施路径的发展空间。”\n尽管如此，但国美的突围之路或并不平坦。\n透明装修并非新鲜事物，然而落地却不太理想，究其原因为家装链条长、环节多、追溯难，特别是在数字化普及较低的情况下，监管成为老大难的问题。\n这并非一朝一夕可以改变的。\n此外，国美走的是平台模式，不下场涉及具体的装修业务，本质上仍然做的是流量生意，问题在于市场并不缺家装平台，既有齐家网等垂直家装平台，也有天猫家装等综合家装平台，那么对垒之下，国美何以吸引大大小小的家装公司？\n兜兜转转，又回到流量瓶颈如何突破这个问题上。\n对此，摩根大通持悲观态度：“国美对未来发展具有野心，但前景及计划未见明朗，考虑到业务面对激烈竞争及发展前景未明，重申‘减持’评级。”\n总而言之，国美的复兴之路依然任重道远，一方面需将线下的优势转移至线上，开拓流量新渠道，另外一方面则需将流量转化为实际销量，从而在家电、家装等市场化守势为攻势。\n这么来看，留给国美自我救赎的时间不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00493":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115940738,"gmtCreate":1622947959524,"gmtModify":1704193599039,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??‍♂️","listText":"??‍♂️","text":"??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115940738","repostId":"1136586425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115950133,"gmtCreate":1622947482322,"gmtModify":1704193584962,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??‍♂️","listText":"??‍♂️","text":"??‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115950133","repostId":"2141004294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141004294","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622959849,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141004294?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 14:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"410 billion yuan! Can Ningde welcome a huge amount of lifting of the ban in the era, and can it survive safely?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141004294","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司","content":"<p>Recently, the ten-year-old CATL ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5th, CATL shares once reached a record high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, and the market value once again exceeded one trillion yuan. Not long ago, on May 31st, the company's share price rose by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant who joined the \"trillion\" market value club of A shares with the attribute of technology manufacturing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just when the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" for CATL, some people saw the \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL to \"low-allocation\", with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount to the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock rating of CATL from overweight to equal weight. At that time, the reason given was that the medium-term prospect of new energy batteries had basically been reflected in the stock price, and whether global automobile factories could launch new models that were popular in the market might not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can CATL, who stands on the top of the mountain, still chase after it? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers to pay attention to.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in the downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry, the market has given the head companies a higher valuation premium. Since its listing, CATL has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored\" by institutions, and its share price has been rising.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that since it landed on the Growth Enterprise Market on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's share price as a whole showed a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan/share at the beginning of listing, the share price of CATL has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>However, behind the rising stock price, the profitability of CATL continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45GWh of power battery systems, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, and brought in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is less than the growth rate of sales volume, indicating that product prices are falling.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the increase in commodity prices since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, among the main raw materials produced by CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure of cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased greatly, which caused a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance consulted the financial report and found that this is not the first decline in gross profit margin in CATL. In fact, since its listing, the gross profit margin of CATL has been stuck in the downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: CATL Financial Report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the chart above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin decreased from 43.7% to 27.76%, earning 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the pre-listing state, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability was obviously differentiated before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, CATL also stated in its financial report that if the market competition intensifies in the future or industry policy adjustments and other factors cause adverse changes in the selling price of the company's products and the purchasing price of raw materials, the company's gross profit margin is at risk of declining.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the gross profit margin of the Company was 27.28%, representing an increase of 2.19 percentage points over the same period of last year, which has not yet recovered to the level of gross profit margin in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak of the epidemic, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the Company's ability to return to shareholders weakened, and its weighted return on net assets (ROE) decreased from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, none of this seems to affect the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a wild horse galloping all the way.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"Galloping\"</b></p><p>According to the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the corresponding rolling P/E of CATL is 149 times, which is at the highest value in history; According to the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the consensus performance forecast given by brokers, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E ratio, which is still a value within the 5-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with the performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of CATL increased less than double from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, and P/E increased nearly seven times from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of listing. Obviously, the valuation runs faster, or it is possible to consume the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit increased by only 22.43% year-on-year. However, catching Tesla's \"ride\", superimposing the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its share price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit was 4.234 billion yuan, the market value was about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E was 125 times, which was significantly lower than that of CATL; Look at Panasonic again. In 2020, the net profit is equivalent to about RMB 10.27 billion, and the static P/E is 22 times. Compared with CATL, it is really low as dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three main car manufacturers with the highest A-share market value at present, BYD, Great Wall Motor and SAIC, have a total market value of 1,088.1 billion yuan, CATL has created a market value of trillion yuan by one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that because the new energy industry is in the growth stage, the scale expansion advantage of CATL with its leading position is easier to highlight the market share agglomeration effect, resulting in the development space being seen far and long.</p><p>According to the statistics of SNEResearch, a South Korean research organization, from January to April this year, the global sales of electric vehicle batteries were 65.9Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer goods, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand, which determines to a certain extent that the industry enters the mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the demand increment is limited. With the slowdown of the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space can be overdrawn in CATL?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave CATL the rating of \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\".</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the wave of lifting the ban that CATL will usher in on June 10th needs to be particularly vigilant.</p><p>Up to now, the share price of CATL is 432.21 yuan/share, with a total market value of 1006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on GEM. The market value of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the ban is lifted next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by CATL on June 10th came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Lvlianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin and Li Ping were the first, second and fifth largest shareholders of CATL respectively. Among the five shareholders who will be lifted by CATL next week, the market value of Ruiting Investment will reach 247 billion yuan, that of Huang Shilin will reach 112.764 billion yuan, that of Li Ping will reach 48.386 billion yuan, and that of the other two shareholders will reach less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of CATL, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of CATL. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of CATL, among which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are acting in concert.</p><p><b>Details of CATL lifting ban</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, lifting the ban will form the expectation of shareholders to reduce their holdings, forcing the stock price on the disk to be under short-term pressure, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>Then, under the huge lifting of the ban, can CATL stand firm at the barrier of trillion market value?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>410 billion yuan! Can Ningde welcome a huge amount of lifting of the ban in the era, and can it survive safely?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n410 billion yuan! Can Ningde welcome a huge amount of lifting of the ban in the era, and can it survive safely?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-06 14:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the ten-year-old CATL ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5th, CATL shares once reached a record high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, and the market value once again exceeded one trillion yuan. Not long ago, on May 31st, the company's share price rose by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant who joined the \"trillion\" market value club of A shares with the attribute of technology manufacturing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just when the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" for CATL, some people saw the \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL to \"low-allocation\", with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount to the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock rating of CATL from overweight to equal weight. At that time, the reason given was that the medium-term prospect of new energy batteries had basically been reflected in the stock price, and whether global automobile factories could launch new models that were popular in the market might not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can CATL, who stands on the top of the mountain, still chase after it? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers to pay attention to.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in the downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry, the market has given the head companies a higher valuation premium. Since its listing, CATL has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored\" by institutions, and its share price has been rising.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that since it landed on the Growth Enterprise Market on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's share price as a whole showed a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan/share at the beginning of listing, the share price of CATL has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>However, behind the rising stock price, the profitability of CATL continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45GWh of power battery systems, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, and brought in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is less than the growth rate of sales volume, indicating that product prices are falling.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the increase in commodity prices since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, among the main raw materials produced by CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure of cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased greatly, which caused a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance consulted the financial report and found that this is not the first decline in gross profit margin in CATL. In fact, since its listing, the gross profit margin of CATL has been stuck in the downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: CATL Financial Report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the chart above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin decreased from 43.7% to 27.76%, earning 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the pre-listing state, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability was obviously differentiated before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, CATL also stated in its financial report that if the market competition intensifies in the future or industry policy adjustments and other factors cause adverse changes in the selling price of the company's products and the purchasing price of raw materials, the company's gross profit margin is at risk of declining.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the gross profit margin of the Company was 27.28%, representing an increase of 2.19 percentage points over the same period of last year, which has not yet recovered to the level of gross profit margin in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak of the epidemic, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the Company's ability to return to shareholders weakened, and its weighted return on net assets (ROE) decreased from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, none of this seems to affect the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a wild horse galloping all the way.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"Galloping\"</b></p><p>According to the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the corresponding rolling P/E of CATL is 149 times, which is at the highest value in history; According to the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the consensus performance forecast given by brokers, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E ratio, which is still a value within the 5-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with the performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of CATL increased less than double from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, and P/E increased nearly seven times from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of listing. Obviously, the valuation runs faster, or it is possible to consume the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit increased by only 22.43% year-on-year. However, catching Tesla's \"ride\", superimposing the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its share price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit was 4.234 billion yuan, the market value was about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E was 125 times, which was significantly lower than that of CATL; Look at Panasonic again. In 2020, the net profit is equivalent to about RMB 10.27 billion, and the static P/E is 22 times. Compared with CATL, it is really low as dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three main car manufacturers with the highest A-share market value at present, BYD, Great Wall Motor and SAIC, have a total market value of 1,088.1 billion yuan, CATL has created a market value of trillion yuan by one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that because the new energy industry is in the growth stage, the scale expansion advantage of CATL with its leading position is easier to highlight the market share agglomeration effect, resulting in the development space being seen far and long.</p><p>According to the statistics of SNEResearch, a South Korean research organization, from January to April this year, the global sales of electric vehicle batteries were 65.9Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer goods, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand, which determines to a certain extent that the industry enters the mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the demand increment is limited. With the slowdown of the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space can be overdrawn in CATL?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave CATL the rating of \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\".</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the wave of lifting the ban that CATL will usher in on June 10th needs to be particularly vigilant.</p><p>Up to now, the share price of CATL is 432.21 yuan/share, with a total market value of 1006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on GEM. The market value of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the ban is lifted next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by CATL on June 10th came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Lvlianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin and Li Ping were the first, second and fifth largest shareholders of CATL respectively. Among the five shareholders who will be lifted by CATL next week, the market value of Ruiting Investment will reach 247 billion yuan, that of Huang Shilin will reach 112.764 billion yuan, that of Li Ping will reach 48.386 billion yuan, and that of the other two shareholders will reach less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of CATL, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of CATL. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of CATL, among which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are acting in concert.</p><p><b>Details of CATL lifting ban</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, lifting the ban will form the expectation of shareholders to reduce their holdings, forcing the stock price on the disk to be under short-term pressure, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>Then, under the huge lifting of the ban, can CATL stand firm at the barrier of trillion market value?</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a520115dfc7edeb93cc3cdf6a15df14","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141004294","content_text":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司股价放量大涨超过6％，市值首次破万亿，成为以科技制造业属性跻身A股“万亿”市值俱乐部的新巨头。不过，就在市场为宁德时代“拍手庆贺”的空档，有人却看到了“泡沫”。同一天，摩根士丹利将宁德时代评级下调至“低配”，目标价仅为251元，相当于给目前400多元的股价直接打了六折。无独有偶，早在2020年11月，大摩就曾将宁德时代的股票评级从超配下调至平配，当时给出的理由是，新能源电池的中期前景已基本反应在股价中，而且全球的汽车厂能否推出受市场欢迎的新车型情况可能要到明年才能被验证。究竟是高了还是低了？站上“山顶”的宁德时代还能不能追？对于投资者来说，至少有三重隐患是需要关注的。/ 01 /盈利能力处在下行通道作为动力电池行业的龙头，受益于行业景气度高，市场给予头部公司较高的估值溢价，宁德时代自上市以来便享受到了被机构“团宠”的待遇，簇拥其股价不断上扬。拉长日线可见，从2018年6月11日登陆创业板开始，截止2021年6月4日，公司股价整体呈快速上升趋势。相较上市之初25.14元/股的发行价，宁德时代近三年的股价涨幅达到1592%。但在股价节节走高的背后，宁德时代的盈利能力却在持续下滑。2020年，公司销售动力电池系统44.45GWh，同比增长10.43%，带来收入394.26亿元，同比增长2.18%。收入增速不及销量增速，说明产品价格在下降。另一边，囿于2020年下半年以来大宗商品涨价，宁德时代主要生产原材料中碳酸锂及钴涨幅都超过20%，成本控制压力加大。收入微涨，成本大增，对利润造成一定挤压，2020年宁德时代的毛利率为27.76%，同比2019年的29.06%减少1.3个百分点。节点财经查阅财报发现，这并不是宁德时代毛利率初次下滑。事实上，自上市后，宁德时代的毛利率便一直停留在下行通道。数据来源：宁德时代财报、东方财富choice如上图所示，2016年至2020年，公司毛利率从43.7%下降至27.76%，五年少赚15.94个百分点。对比上市前的状态，2014年至2016年，公司毛利率从25.73%提升到43.7%，其盈利能力在上市前后分化明显。对此，宁德时代也在财报中表示，若未来市场竞争加剧或行业政策调整等因素使得公司产品售价及原材料采购价格发生不利变化，公司毛利率存在下降的风险。2021年一季度，公司毛利率为27.28%，较上年同期增加2.19个百分点，尚未恢复到疫情发生前2019年一季度毛利率水平，环比则减少1.08个百分点。于此同时，公司对股东的回报能力趋弱，其加权净资产收益率（ROE）从2016年的69.55%下降至2020年11.27%。不过，这似乎都没有影响到资本市场对宁德时代的追捧，估值如脱缰的野马一路飞奔。/ 02 /估值“策马狂奔”按照今年一季度净利润19.54亿元计算，宁德时代对应的滚动市盈率为149倍，处于历史最高值；按照2020年净利润55.83亿元计算，宁德时代对应的静态市盈率为179倍，同样处于历史最高值。即使按照券商给出的一致业绩预测，公司2023年净利润预计为200亿，对应51倍市盈率，这仍是一个处在5年估值中枢区间内的数值。结合业绩，2016年-2020年，五年时间，宁德时代净利润从28.52亿元到55.83亿元，涨了不到1 倍，市盈率从上市之初约23倍到179倍，涨了接近7倍，显然估值跑的更快，或者说有提前消耗估值的可能。2020年，公司净利润同比增速不过22.43%，但搭上特斯拉的“顺风车”，叠加新能源产业中长期规划发布，碳中和概念等，其年内股价从100多元狂飙到350多元，涨幅超过200%。对比同行，宁德时代的估值更是不便宜。就拿老对手比亚迪来说，2020年净利润42.34亿元，市值约5300亿元，静态市盈率125倍，显著低于宁德时代；再看看松下，2020年净利润折合人民币约102.7亿元，静态市盈率22倍，和宁德时代一比，真的要低到尘埃里了。更甚者，就算拉来目前A股市值最高的三大主车厂，比亚迪、长城汽车和上汽集团，三者合计市值10881亿元，宁德时代以一人之力创出万亿市值，相当彪悍。节点财经认为，由于新能源行业正处在成长期，宁德时代以龙头地位下的规模扩张优势，较容易凸显出市占率聚集效应，导致发展空间被看远、看久。韩国研究机构SNEResearch统计，今年1-4月，全球电动汽车电池销量65.9Gwh，其中宁德时代占有32.5%的份额。然而，作为大宗消费品，汽车具有消费频次低，非刚需等特点，这又在一定程度上决定了该行业进入成熟期的速度要快于手机、家电等一般消费品，且需求增量有限，随着产业链出货量增速放缓，宁德时代还有多少估值空间可以透支？近期，上海证券、财信证券均给予宁德时代“谨慎增持”或“谨慎推荐”评级。/ 03 /即将到来的解禁潮对短期投资者来说，宁德时代即将于6月10日迎来的一波解禁巨浪是需要特别警惕的。截至目前，宁德时代股价为432.21元/股，总市值为10068亿元，为创业板首只万亿市值个股。4116.29亿元的解禁市值占宁德时代总市值的40.88%，下周解禁后，宁德时代流通盘将大增70.18%。宁德时代6月10日解禁的股份来自于5名股东，分别为瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平、东鹏伟创投资、绿联君和产业并购股权投资基金合伙企业，截至2021年一季度末，瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平分列宁德时代第一、第二、第五大股东。在宁德时代下周解禁的5个股东中，瑞庭投资解禁市值达2470亿元，黄世霖解禁市值达1127.64亿元，李平解禁市值达483.86亿元，其他两名股东解禁市值不足20亿元。瑞庭投资为宁德时代控股股东，由宁德时代创始人、董事长曾毓群100%控股，黄世霖、李平为宁德时代联合创始人、副董事长，其中李平和曾毓群为一致行动人。宁德时代解禁详细信息一般来说，解禁会形成股东减持预期，迫使盘面股价短期承压，属于对散户们的重大利空。那么，巨量解禁之下，宁德时代在万亿市值的关口能够站得稳吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357760178,"gmtCreate":1617301678494,"gmtModify":1704698592882,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357760178","repostId":"1123979727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123979727","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617287972,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123979727?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-01 22:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Youxin skyrocketed over 40%, and the company signed letters of intent for investment with two well-known funds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123979727","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日，优信二手车盘中暴涨超40%，公司与两家知名的亚洲基金签订投资意向书。优信二手车宣布，公司已于4月1日与两家亚洲投资基金签订具约束力的投资意向书。据此，潜在投资者已同意与公司就认购高级可转换优","content":"<p>On April 1,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Used cars soared by more than 40% in intraday trading, and the company signed letters of intent to invest with two well-known Asian funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2167fabccf148c1d56d49b6c72965108\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Used Cars announced that the company has signed binding letters of intent to invest with two Asian investment funds on April 1. Accordingly, the potential investors have agreed to negotiate with the company on the subscription of senior convertible preferred shares rights and may sign a final agreement, and the total investment amount of the potential transaction may reach up to US$300 million.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Youxin skyrocketed over 40%, and the company signed letters of intent for investment with two well-known funds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYouxin skyrocketed over 40%, and the company signed letters of intent for investment with two well-known funds\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-01 22:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 1,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Used cars soared by more than 40% in intraday trading, and the company signed letters of intent to invest with two well-known Asian funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2167fabccf148c1d56d49b6c72965108\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Used Cars announced that the company has signed binding letters of intent to invest with two Asian investment funds on April 1. Accordingly, the potential investors have agreed to negotiate with the company on the subscription of senior convertible preferred shares rights and may sign a final agreement, and the total investment amount of the potential transaction may reach up to US$300 million.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ade1733a461c9483048e104ccc2d044","relate_stocks":{"UXIN":"优信"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123979727","content_text":"4月1日，优信二手车盘中暴涨超40%，公司与两家知名的亚洲基金签订投资意向书。优信二手车宣布，公司已于4月1日与两家亚洲投资基金签订具约束力的投资意向书。据此，潜在投资者已同意与公司就认购高级可转换优先股进行磋商并可能签订最终协议，潜在交易的总投资额最高或将达3亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UXIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322698642,"gmtCreate":1615800217886,"gmtModify":1704786662842,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"+1","listText":"+1","text":"+1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322698642","repostId":"1187438693","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322036494,"gmtCreate":1615731407018,"gmtModify":1704786007044,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322036494","repostId":"2119921993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119921993","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615698793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119921993?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-14 13:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is Biden's infrastructure expected to pass within the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119921993","media":"智通财经网","summary":"拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在已经使用过“调和程序”的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?","content":"<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han on Macro, written by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Content Summary</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful rollout of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy priority. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? With the Democrats already using the \"reconciliation process\" to advance 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional and old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>Legislative Congressional Process: Both chambers require a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, more than half of the members of Congress agree to pass.</p><p>Major obstacles to legislation: A reconciliation process may be required to bypass obstacles to Senate proceedings. It is important to note that minority senators can prevent a vote from proceeding by \"filibuster\" indefinitely extending speaking time, and only 60 votes can be reached to terminate the debate. The \"reconciliation process\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of deliberation, and only a simple majority is required to pass a bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus was to use the \"reconciliation process\" to legislate smoothly with zero support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Prospect of Infrastructure Promotion: Ideal scenario downward adjustment and procedures can be started again as early as October 1st. According to historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation procedure at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill is to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, if infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" again, it needs to wait until the US fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables on whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the congressional change in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another midterm election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Midterm Elections\" for details), there are still variables about whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority of seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to move forward with major legislation as soon as possible before then, and from this perspective, it is understandable that Biden is pushing forward with such urgency with infrastructure plans.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure rehabilitation + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories classified as \"D\". Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be addressed urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair, clean energy upgrading in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries, and the budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures do Congress need to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that reconciliation procedures will be needed to bypass obstacles to deliberations.</p><p>According to the United States Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, and overturning the presidential veto power, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree to be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no time limit for discussion, members can prevent a vote by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the agreement (60 votes) can terminate a debate, a system known as \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstructions have been used more and more often in Congress, with more than 300 obstructions used in the previous Congress (116th).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation process” can effectively circumvent the obstruction of proceedings, limiting the Senate to 20 hours of debate, and requiring only a simple majority to pass a bill. From the process point of view, the flow of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote just passed, the \"reconciliation process\" also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed, but all Republicans opposed. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated by the \"reconciliation procedure\" to be legislated smoothly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure uses the premise that the motion complies with the \"Byrd Rule\". During discussion in the Senate of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to file a procedural objection that the bill violates the \"Byrd Rule\". The proposal is then decided by the councillors, which can also be rejected by a vote of more than 60 senators. The Byrd Rule stipulates that a reconciliation proceeding motion shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not change expenditures or revenues</p><p>Change in expenditure or income is inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of the provision</p><p>The budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the requirements of the reconciliation process (usually 10 years)</p><p>Modification of Social Security in Budget Resolution</p><p>Apart from procedural constraints, there is no precedent for reconciliation procedures to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (that is, necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc., and infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There has also been no precedent in history for the use of \"reconciliation procedures\" to pass infrastructure bills.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can the reconciliation program be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be reused after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use reconciliation bills up to three times per fiscal year on the topics of revenue, expenditure, and federal debt limits, and each topic can be used only once. But since bills typically deal with more than one subject, it is historical experience that the reconciliation process is used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of the U.S. financial year does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. As a result, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 does not take up the reconciliation process quota for fiscal 2022. In principle, the reconciliation procedure can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure has also been successfully used twice in 2017. In early 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass a bill to repeal Obamacare through a reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, it is highly likely that the Biden administration will propose the infrastructure plan as soon as possible in order to maximize its political appeal before the 2022 congressional election. As a result, the Biden administration could bring the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as this October if it attempts to move it forward through a reconciliation process.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Biden's infrastructure expected to pass within the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Biden's infrastructure expected to pass within the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-14 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han on Macro, written by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Content Summary</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful rollout of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy priority. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? With the Democrats already using the \"reconciliation process\" to advance 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional and old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>Legislative Congressional Process: Both chambers require a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, more than half of the members of Congress agree to pass.</p><p>Major obstacles to legislation: A reconciliation process may be required to bypass obstacles to Senate proceedings. It is important to note that minority senators can prevent a vote from proceeding by \"filibuster\" indefinitely extending speaking time, and only 60 votes can be reached to terminate the debate. The \"reconciliation process\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of deliberation, and only a simple majority is required to pass a bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus was to use the \"reconciliation process\" to legislate smoothly with zero support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Prospect of Infrastructure Promotion: Ideal scenario downward adjustment and procedures can be started again as early as October 1st. According to historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation procedure at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill is to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, if infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" again, it needs to wait until the US fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables on whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the congressional change in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another midterm election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Midterm Elections\" for details), there are still variables about whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority of seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to move forward with major legislation as soon as possible before then, and from this perspective, it is understandable that Biden is pushing forward with such urgency with infrastructure plans.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure rehabilitation + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories classified as \"D\". Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be addressed urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair, clean energy upgrading in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries, and the budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures do Congress need to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that reconciliation procedures will be needed to bypass obstacles to deliberations.</p><p>According to the United States Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, and overturning the presidential veto power, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree to be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no time limit for discussion, members can prevent a vote by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the agreement (60 votes) can terminate a debate, a system known as \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstructions have been used more and more often in Congress, with more than 300 obstructions used in the previous Congress (116th).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation process” can effectively circumvent the obstruction of proceedings, limiting the Senate to 20 hours of debate, and requiring only a simple majority to pass a bill. From the process point of view, the flow of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote just passed, the \"reconciliation process\" also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed, but all Republicans opposed. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated by the \"reconciliation procedure\" to be legislated smoothly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure uses the premise that the motion complies with the \"Byrd Rule\". During discussion in the Senate of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to file a procedural objection that the bill violates the \"Byrd Rule\". The proposal is then decided by the councillors, which can also be rejected by a vote of more than 60 senators. The Byrd Rule stipulates that a reconciliation proceeding motion shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not change expenditures or revenues</p><p>Change in expenditure or income is inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of the provision</p><p>The budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the requirements of the reconciliation process (usually 10 years)</p><p>Modification of Social Security in Budget Resolution</p><p>Apart from procedural constraints, there is no precedent for reconciliation procedures to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (that is, necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc., and infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There has also been no precedent in history for the use of \"reconciliation procedures\" to pass infrastructure bills.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can the reconciliation program be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be reused after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use reconciliation bills up to three times per fiscal year on the topics of revenue, expenditure, and federal debt limits, and each topic can be used only once. But since bills typically deal with more than one subject, it is historical experience that the reconciliation process is used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of the U.S. financial year does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. As a result, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 does not take up the reconciliation process quota for fiscal 2022. In principle, the reconciliation procedure can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure has also been successfully used twice in 2017. In early 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass a bill to repeal Obamacare through a reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, it is highly likely that the Biden administration will propose the infrastructure plan as soon as possible in order to maximize its political appeal before the 2022 congressional election. As a result, the Biden administration could bring the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as this October if it attempts to move it forward through a reconciliation process.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210314/20210314111415_39549.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"CAT":"卡特彼勒"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2119921993","content_text":"本文来自 王涵论宏观，作者为兴业证券宏观首席分析师王涵。内容摘要2021年3月4日，拜登会见了众议院运输和基础设施委员会的八名成员，这是2月11日与参议员就基础设施举行会议的后续行动。1.9万亿财政刺激法案成功推出后，基建可能将成为拜登的下一个政策重点。拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在民主党已经使用“调和程序”推进1.9万亿刺激立法的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?我们将在本文中一一解读。基建主要内容：2万亿——传统设施修复+清洁能源产业升级。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了传统老旧的基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿美元。立法国会流程：参众两院均需简单多数即可通过。一般来说，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。立法主要障碍：或需通过调和程序绕开参议院议事阻碍。需要注意的是，少数党参议员可以通过“议事阻碍”(filibuster)无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到60票才可以终止辩论。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。近期通过的1.9万亿财政刺激就是使用“调和程序”，在共和党议员零票支持的背景下顺利立法。基建推进展望：理想情景下调和程序最早能在10月1日再次启用。历史经验来看，美国每个财年最多能使用一次调和程序，考虑到1.9万亿刺激法案是在2021年财年预算决议中启用“调和程序”，基建立法想再次启用“调和程序”，最早需要等到美国2022财年(2021年10月1日)。拜登缘何急迫：2022年国会换届后能否维持“Blue Sweep”存在变数。考虑到2022年美国国会将迎来再次的中期选举(详参《关于美国中期选举你需要知道的一切》)，民主党能否维持当前两院多数党席位，仍然存在变数。从这个角度而言，拜登有极强的动力在此之前尽快推进重大立法，从这个角度可以理解拜登如此紧迫地推进基建方案。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。正文Q1：拜登基建内容包括什么?A1：传统基础设施修复+清洁能源产业升级，一揽子预算约2万亿美元。1.9万亿财政刺激计划通过后，拜登政府下一步的政策重心可能会转移到基建。根据美国土木工程师协会(ASCE)对美国基础设施状况的最新评级，美国2021年基础设施状况为“C-”，17个分类类别中，有11个类别属于“D”级。因此，美国基础设施老化的问题亟待解决，基建可能是拜登政府的下一个重要议题。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿。Q2：基建计划的通过需要国会什么程序?A2：大概率需要通过调和程序以绕开议事阻碍。根据美国宪法规定，除了弹劾、除名国会成员、修改宪法、推翻总统否决权等情况，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。然而由于参议院对讨论的时间没有限制，议员可以通过无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到五分之三同意(60票)才可以终止辩论，这种制度被称为“议事阻碍”(filibuster)。近些年来，议事阻碍被使用在国会的次数越来越多，上一届国会(116届)使用议事阻碍的次数达到了300多次。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，将参议院的辩论时间限制在20小时之内，且只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。从流程上来看，调和程序的流程并不复杂，因此使用调和程序通过基建计划可能为拜登政府的最优解。从刚刚通过的1.9万亿财政刺激投票结果来看，“调和程序”也发挥了重要作用。参议院投票中，民主党全员通过，但共和党全员反对。财政刺激的议案依靠“调和程序”规定的简单多数通过原则，得以顺利立法。然而，调和程序使用的前提是议案遵守“伯德规则”。在参议院对包含调和程序的议案讨论过程中，任何议员都有权提出该议案违反“伯德规则”，提出程序性反对。之后由议事官对该提议进行裁定，该裁定也可由60名以上的参议员投票进行否决。“伯德规则”规定调和程序议案不得包括以下情景：调和程序的预算提案不改变支出或收入支出或收入的改变与“调和指令”中不符在委员会管辖范围外提交调和决议支出或收入变化仅仅是该经费的非预算组成部分所附带的预算决议中赤字增加到超出调和程序的规定(通常为十年)预算决议中涉及修改社会保障除了程序上的限制外，调和程序并未有在基建计划上使用的先例。“调和程序”的使用要求是Mandatory Spending(即必要支出)，这主要包含社保、医保、医疗救助、收入支持等，基建支出并未有明确包含在内。历史上也并未有使用“调和程序”通过基建法案的先例。Q3：调和程序(reconciliation)今年还能再用吗?A3：2021年10月1日之后可以再用。原则上来说，国会每个财年最多使用三次调和法案，涉及的主题分别为收入、支出和联邦债务限额，每一个主题分别只能使用一次。但是由于通常来说议案会涉及不止一个主题，所以历史经验来看每个财年调和程序最多使用了一次。然而，美国财经年度的划分并不是从1月1日开始，而是10月1日，所以2021年10月1日为2022财年的开始。因此，2021年3月通过的1.9万亿财政刺激并不会占用2022财年的调和程序额度。原则上来说，2021年10月1日之后，调和程序还可以再次使用。历史上来看，2017年也成功使用了两次调和程序。2017年初，特朗普政府试图通过调和程序来通过废除奥巴马医改的法案;2017年12月，特朗普政府再次使用调和程序并成功推出了《减税和就业法》。考虑到拜登政府目前“blue sweep”的局面，想要在2022年国会换届选举之前实现政治诉求的最大化，拜登政府大概率会尽早对基建计划进行提案。因此，如果试图通过调和程序来推进基建计划，拜登政府可能会在最早今年10月将基建计划提交国会。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322036501,"gmtCreate":1615731384603,"gmtModify":1704786006880,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322036501","repostId":"2119799346","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321424379,"gmtCreate":1615464494191,"gmtModify":1704783097590,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321424379","repostId":"1164132586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164132586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615463328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164132586?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-11 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Macro: Looking at the Space of Price Increase from the Mismatch of Supply and Demand in American Manufacturing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164132586","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"2021年1月美国制造业产能利用率已从上年4月的历史最低点60.5%恢复至75.2%，同比下滑0.5%，基本回到了正常水平；但供需错配的结构性问题仍然明显，工业品价格出现了二轮上涨。为了厘清哪些行业内","content":"<p>In January 2021, the capacity utilization rate of the U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered from an all-time low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, down 0.5% year-on-year, and basically returned to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round. In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increases, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in U.S. manufacturing from two perspectives: capacity utilization rate and inventory-to-shipment ratio. It is concluded that the mismatch between supply and demand in petroleum coking, textile, plastics and rubber, non-metallic minerals and electrical equipment industries is serious, and there is more room for price increase.<b>1. The mismatch between supply and demand drives the price of industrial products to rise rapidly</b></p><p><b>In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused great disturbance to global industrial production, and the gap between supply and demand pushed commodities to \"rise\".</b>Taking the United States as an example, the production capacity of the manufacturing industry in the United States recovered slowly due to the epidemic, while the purchasing power of residents benefited from the government's fiscal transfer and performed strongly. On the one hand, the mismatch between supply and demand caused the inventory of finished products to quickly diminish. In September, the inventory growth rate fell to-4.6%, a record low since the subprime mortgage crisis; On the other hand, it also drove the US PPI to rise rapidly, and returned to positive growth at the end of last year.</p><p><b>In January 2021, the capacity utilization rate of the U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered from an all-time low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, down 0.5% year-on-year, and basically returned to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round.</b>There are two main reasons behind this round of price increase: First, the overseas epidemic rebounded for the second time in the fourth quarter, the repair slope of manufacturing capacity utilization rate in the United States slowed down, and the gap between supply and demand widened again; Second, the overseas supply of upstream raw materials such as crude oil has shrunk, but the demand has rebounded rapidly driven by vaccination and the restart of the service industry. Prices have risen rapidly, and cost pressure has pushed up terminal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bef8dbc5ea3ffd191e0291b83a39f6a\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increases, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in U.S. manufacturing from two perspectives: capacity utilization rate and inventory-to-shipment ratio.</b>From the historical data, the low rebound of capacity utilization rate and the high rebound of inventory-to-shipment ratio often correspond to the strength of industrial product prices. The mismatch between supply and demand in industries with the above characteristics is obvious, and there is more room for price increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8e15fd35a3add066562a10d931f817\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, which industries have slow supply recovery?</b></p><p><b>In January 2021, the manufacturing output of the United States decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, of which the output of non-durable goods decreased by 0.2% year-on-year and the output of durable goods decreased by 1.4% year-on-year. The difference between the two mainly came from the strong consumption demand of residents.</b></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods,</b>The production of food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, leather, textiles, plastics and rubber, and chemicals benefiting from the demand for pharmaceuticals have basically recovered to pre-pandemic levels, while the production of petroleum processing and coking has performed poorly due to the abnormal weather, and the production of printing, textile, garment and paper industries remains poor.</p><p><b>For durable goods,</b>The production of computer, electronic products and transportation equipment industries has recovered rapidly, while the output of furniture has still declined greatly. There is still room for repair in the output of middle and upstream industries such as primary metals, non-metallic mineral products, metal products, machinery manufacturing and electrical equipment.</p><p><b>Combined with the capacity utilization rate and output, the industries with poor production situation at present and great room for improvement in the future mainly include petroleum processing, printing, plastics and rubber, papermaking, textiles, furniture, non-metallic minerals, metal products and electrical equipment for durable goods.</b>In addition, the output of clothing, primary metals and machinery industries has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level, but the capacity utilization rate is not low, indicating that the share of the industry has declined, and some demand in the future may rely on external supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0892a6f34763b2b4510089f1e40674c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"1168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Which industries have recovered strongly in demand?</b></p><p><b>According to the latest data, most industries in the American manufacturing industry have entered the replenishment stage.</b></p><p>among<b>Industries that take the initiative to replenish stocks include</b>Wood products, food, textiles, textiles, leather and paper in the consumer industrial chain and primary metals, metal products, computers and peripherals, automobiles, petroleum processing and coking, chemicals and rubber and plastics in the industrial chain.<b>Industries that are still passively destocking include</b>Non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment and beverage tobacco. At present, the demand in these industries is relatively strong, and the gap between supply and demand has driven the price to rise significantly.</p><p><b>Industries where demand currently has room for improvement (inventory-to-shipment ratios are on the decline and in higher quantiles) include aerospace and other transportation equipment, petroleum processing, electrical equipment and textiles. In addition, there is room for improvement in the demand of primary metals, non-metallic minerals, textiles, plastics and rubber industries.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacb7306ae40477bcf9d119f7cdc057a\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1074\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary: Five industries with the highest endogenous power of price increase</b></p><p><b>Combining the above two dimensions of supply and demand, we judge that the mismatch between supply and demand in the following industries is serious, and the endogenous motivation for the current price increase is stronger. In the future, with the recovery of capacity utilization rate and the decline of inventory-to-shipment ratio, the shipment price of the industry will further rise, but the motivation of price increase may gradually weaken.</b></p><p><b>(1) Petroleum coking.</b>The supply of the industry has recovered slowly due to the extremely cold weather, while the demand is certain to recover driven by the opening of the service industry and the fiscal stimulus of the United States. OPEC expects the global oil demand to increase by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2021. The subsequent price increase space in the industry largely depends on the recovery of shale oil production in the United States and the sustainability of OPEC's production reduction.</p><p><b>(2) Textiles.</b>In January, the capacity utilization rate of the industry was 71.3%, which was still far behind 76.8% in the same period last year, and the supply was tight. In 2021, the global apparel market will further recover, and the industry demand is expected to increase. In addition to supply and demand factors, the relatively high oil price will also support the rise of chemical fiber prices.</p><p><b>(3) Plastic rubber.</b>In January, the capacity utilization rate of the industry has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but compared with the strong demand for automobile tires, the supply is still low, the inventory-to-shipment ratio has room for further exploration, and the price still has an upward momentum.</p><p><b>(4) Non-metallic minerals.</b>On the supply side, the industry's capacity utilization rate in January was 65.7%, corresponding to the quantile of 0.31; On the demand side, in the short and medium term, the U.S. real estate market will continue to replenish its inventory driven by low interest rates, high demand, low inventory and fiscal stimulus, and real estate investment will continue to be hot. Under the mismatch between supply and demand, the industry has room for further price increase.</p><p><b>(5) Electrical equipment, electrical appliances and components.</b>The industry mainly includes lighting equipment, household appliances and electrical equipment components (such as generators). On the one hand, the demand benefits from the prosperity of the post-real estate cycle, and on the other hand, it also benefits from the accelerated restart of global production to promote manufacturing investment. At present, the industry inventory shipment has a steep downward slope, the inventory growth rate remains low, the gap between supply and demand has not eased, and the price is expected to rise further.</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Macro: Looking at the Space of Price Increase from the Mismatch of Supply and Demand in American Manufacturing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Macro: Looking at the Space of Price Increase from the Mismatch of Supply and Demand in American Manufacturing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪涛宏观笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-11 19:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In January 2021, the capacity utilization rate of the U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered from an all-time low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, down 0.5% year-on-year, and basically returned to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round. In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increases, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in U.S. manufacturing from two perspectives: capacity utilization rate and inventory-to-shipment ratio. It is concluded that the mismatch between supply and demand in petroleum coking, textile, plastics and rubber, non-metallic minerals and electrical equipment industries is serious, and there is more room for price increase.<b>1. The mismatch between supply and demand drives the price of industrial products to rise rapidly</b></p><p><b>In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused great disturbance to global industrial production, and the gap between supply and demand pushed commodities to \"rise\".</b>Taking the United States as an example, the production capacity of the manufacturing industry in the United States recovered slowly due to the epidemic, while the purchasing power of residents benefited from the government's fiscal transfer and performed strongly. On the one hand, the mismatch between supply and demand caused the inventory of finished products to quickly diminish. In September, the inventory growth rate fell to-4.6%, a record low since the subprime mortgage crisis; On the other hand, it also drove the US PPI to rise rapidly, and returned to positive growth at the end of last year.</p><p><b>In January 2021, the capacity utilization rate of the U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered from an all-time low of 60.5% in April last year to 75.2%, down 0.5% year-on-year, and basically returned to normal levels; However, the structural problem of mismatch between supply and demand is still obvious, and the price of industrial products has risen for a second round.</b>There are two main reasons behind this round of price increase: First, the overseas epidemic rebounded for the second time in the fourth quarter, the repair slope of manufacturing capacity utilization rate in the United States slowed down, and the gap between supply and demand widened again; Second, the overseas supply of upstream raw materials such as crude oil has shrunk, but the demand has rebounded rapidly driven by vaccination and the restart of the service industry. Prices have risen rapidly, and cost pressure has pushed up terminal prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bef8dbc5ea3ffd191e0291b83a39f6a\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In order to clarify which industries have stronger endogenous price increases, we measure the mismatch between supply and demand in U.S. manufacturing from two perspectives: capacity utilization rate and inventory-to-shipment ratio.</b>From the historical data, the low rebound of capacity utilization rate and the high rebound of inventory-to-shipment ratio often correspond to the strength of industrial product prices. The mismatch between supply and demand in industries with the above characteristics is obvious, and there is more room for price increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8e15fd35a3add066562a10d931f817\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, which industries have slow supply recovery?</b></p><p><b>In January 2021, the manufacturing output of the United States decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, of which the output of non-durable goods decreased by 0.2% year-on-year and the output of durable goods decreased by 1.4% year-on-year. The difference between the two mainly came from the strong consumption demand of residents.</b></p><p><b>In terms of non-durable goods,</b>The production of food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, leather, textiles, plastics and rubber, and chemicals benefiting from the demand for pharmaceuticals have basically recovered to pre-pandemic levels, while the production of petroleum processing and coking has performed poorly due to the abnormal weather, and the production of printing, textile, garment and paper industries remains poor.</p><p><b>For durable goods,</b>The production of computer, electronic products and transportation equipment industries has recovered rapidly, while the output of furniture has still declined greatly. There is still room for repair in the output of middle and upstream industries such as primary metals, non-metallic mineral products, metal products, machinery manufacturing and electrical equipment.</p><p><b>Combined with the capacity utilization rate and output, the industries with poor production situation at present and great room for improvement in the future mainly include petroleum processing, printing, plastics and rubber, papermaking, textiles, furniture, non-metallic minerals, metal products and electrical equipment for durable goods.</b>In addition, the output of clothing, primary metals and machinery industries has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level, but the capacity utilization rate is not low, indicating that the share of the industry has declined, and some demand in the future may rely on external supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0892a6f34763b2b4510089f1e40674c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"1168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Which industries have recovered strongly in demand?</b></p><p><b>According to the latest data, most industries in the American manufacturing industry have entered the replenishment stage.</b></p><p>among<b>Industries that take the initiative to replenish stocks include</b>Wood products, food, textiles, textiles, leather and paper in the consumer industrial chain and primary metals, metal products, computers and peripherals, automobiles, petroleum processing and coking, chemicals and rubber and plastics in the industrial chain.<b>Industries that are still passively destocking include</b>Non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment and beverage tobacco. At present, the demand in these industries is relatively strong, and the gap between supply and demand has driven the price to rise significantly.</p><p><b>Industries where demand currently has room for improvement (inventory-to-shipment ratios are on the decline and in higher quantiles) include aerospace and other transportation equipment, petroleum processing, electrical equipment and textiles. In addition, there is room for improvement in the demand of primary metals, non-metallic minerals, textiles, plastics and rubber industries.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacb7306ae40477bcf9d119f7cdc057a\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1074\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary: Five industries with the highest endogenous power of price increase</b></p><p><b>Combining the above two dimensions of supply and demand, we judge that the mismatch between supply and demand in the following industries is serious, and the endogenous motivation for the current price increase is stronger. In the future, with the recovery of capacity utilization rate and the decline of inventory-to-shipment ratio, the shipment price of the industry will further rise, but the motivation of price increase may gradually weaken.</b></p><p><b>(1) Petroleum coking.</b>The supply of the industry has recovered slowly due to the extremely cold weather, while the demand is certain to recover driven by the opening of the service industry and the fiscal stimulus of the United States. OPEC expects the global oil demand to increase by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2021. The subsequent price increase space in the industry largely depends on the recovery of shale oil production in the United States and the sustainability of OPEC's production reduction.</p><p><b>(2) Textiles.</b>In January, the capacity utilization rate of the industry was 71.3%, which was still far behind 76.8% in the same period last year, and the supply was tight. In 2021, the global apparel market will further recover, and the industry demand is expected to increase. In addition to supply and demand factors, the relatively high oil price will also support the rise of chemical fiber prices.</p><p><b>(3) Plastic rubber.</b>In January, the capacity utilization rate of the industry has exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but compared with the strong demand for automobile tires, the supply is still low, the inventory-to-shipment ratio has room for further exploration, and the price still has an upward momentum.</p><p><b>(4) Non-metallic minerals.</b>On the supply side, the industry's capacity utilization rate in January was 65.7%, corresponding to the quantile of 0.31; On the demand side, in the short and medium term, the U.S. real estate market will continue to replenish its inventory driven by low interest rates, high demand, low inventory and fiscal stimulus, and real estate investment will continue to be hot. Under the mismatch between supply and demand, the industry has room for further price increase.</p><p><b>(5) Electrical equipment, electrical appliances and components.</b>The industry mainly includes lighting equipment, household appliances and electrical equipment components (such as generators). On the one hand, the demand benefits from the prosperity of the post-real estate cycle, and on the other hand, it also benefits from the accelerated restart of global production to promote manufacturing investment. At present, the industry inventory shipment has a steep downward slope, the inventory growth rate remains low, the gap between supply and demand has not eased, and the price is expected to rise further.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5-pgwxQBOjBV8scWgJ0gnQ\">雪涛宏观笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5-pgwxQBOjBV8scWgJ0gnQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164132586","content_text":"2021年1月美国制造业产能利用率已从上年4月的历史最低点60.5%恢复至75.2%，同比下滑0.5%，基本回到了正常水平；但供需错配的结构性问题仍然明显，工业品价格出现了二轮上涨。为了厘清哪些行业内生性涨价动力更强，我们从产能利用率和存货出货比两个角度,计量美国制造业的供需错配程度。得到的结论是石油炼焦、纺织、塑料橡胶、非金属矿物和电气设备等行业供需错配比较严重，有更大的涨价空间。\n\n一、供求错配推动工业品价格快速上涨\n2020年新冠疫情对全球工业生产造成了较大扰动，供需缺口推动商品“涨”声一片。以美国为例，美国制造业的生产能力受疫情影响恢复较慢，而居民购买力受益于政府财政转移表现较强。供求错配一方面使得产成品库存快速去化，9月库存增速回落至-4.6%，创出次贷危机以来历史新低；另一方面也带动美国PPI快速走高，去年底重回正增长。\n2021年1月美国制造业产能利用率已从上年4月的历史最低点60.5%恢复至75.2%，同比下滑0.5%，基本回到了正常水平；但供需错配的结构性问题仍然明显，工业品价格出现了二轮上涨。这一轮涨价的背后主要有两个原因：其一，四季度海外疫情二度反弹，美国制造业产能利用率修复斜率放缓，供需缺口再度走阔；其二，原油等上游原材料海外供给收缩但需求在疫苗接种、服务业重启的推动下回升较快，价格快速上涨，成本压力推升了终端价格。\n\n为了厘清哪些行业内生性涨价动力更强，我们从产能利用率和存货出货比两个角度, 计量美国制造业的供需错配程度。从历史数据看，产能利用率低位回升、存货出货比高位回落往往对应着工业品价格的走强。具有上述特征的行业供需错配明显，有更大的涨价空间。\n\n二、哪些行业供给恢复偏慢？\n2021年1月美国制造业产量同比下滑0.8%，其中非耐用品产量同比下滑0.2%，耐用品产量同比下滑1.4%，两者的差异主要来源于较强的居民消费需求。\n非耐用品方面，食品、饮料、烟酒、皮革、纺织品、塑料橡胶和受益于医药需求的化学品生产状况已基本恢复至疫情前水平，石油加工和炼焦生产状况受异常天气影响表现不佳，印刷、纺织、服装和造纸等行业生产状况仍然较差。\n耐用品方面，计算机及电子产品、运输设备两个行业的生产恢复较快，家具产量下滑幅度仍然较大，初级金属、非金属矿物制品、金属制品、机械制造、电气设备等中上游行业产量仍有修复空间。\n结合产能利用率和产量来看，目前生产状况较差且未来有较大改善空间的行业主要有非耐用品类的石油加工、印刷、塑料橡胶、造纸、纺织，耐用品类的家具、非金属矿物、金属制品、电气设备。另外服装、初级金属和机械等行业产量尚未恢复至疫情前水平，但产能利用率已经不低，说明行业份额出现下降，未来部分需求可能依赖外部供给。\n\n三、哪些行业需求恢复较强？\n从最新一期数据看，美国制造业大多数行业已经进入补库阶段。\n其中主动补库的行业包括消费产业链的木制品、食品、纺织、纺织品、皮革、造纸以及工业产业链的初级金属、金属制品、计算机与外围设备、汽车、石油加工炼焦、化学品和橡胶塑料。仍在被动去库的行业包括非金属矿物制品、电气设备和饮料烟草。这些行业当下需求较为旺盛，供需缺口已经带动价格出现了明显上涨。\n目前需求还有改善空间（存货出货比正在下行且分位数较高）的行业包括航天和其他运输设备、石油加工、电气设备和纺织。另外初级金属、非金属矿物、纺织品和塑料橡胶等行业需求也有一定提升空间。\n\n四、总结：涨价内生性动力最高的五个行业\n综合以上供给和需求两个维度，我们判断以下行业供需错配比较严重，当前涨价的内生性动力更强。未来随着产能利用率的回升和存货出货比的下降，行业出货价格将进一步走高，但涨价动力或逐步减弱。\n（1）石油炼焦。行业供给受极寒天气影响恢复缓慢，而需求在服务业开放和美国财政刺激的推动下回升确定性较强，OPEC预计2021年全球石油需求将增加580万桶/日。后续行业价格上涨空间很大程度上取决于美国页岩油产量的恢复情况和OPEC减产的持续性。\n（2）纺织。1月行业产能利用率71.3%，与去年同期的76.8%相比还有较大差距，供给偏紧。而2021年全球服装市场将进一步复苏，行业需求预计有增量。供需因素之外，油价的相对高位也将支撑化纤价格上涨。\n（3）塑料橡胶。1月行业产能利用率已超过疫情前水平，但供给相比汽车轮胎的旺盛需求仍然偏低，存货出货比有进一步下探空间，价格仍有上涨动力。\n（4）非金属矿物。供给面上看，行业1月产能利用率65.7%，对应分位数0.31；需求面上看，中短期美国房地产市场将在低利率、高需求、低库存和财政刺激的推动下继续补库，房地产投资延续火热状态。供需错配之下，行业有进一步涨价空间。\n（5）电气设备、电器及元件。行业主要包含照明设备、家用电器和电气设备组件（比如发电机）等，需求一方面受益于房地产后周期的景气，另一方面也受益于全球生产加速重启对制造业投资的推动。目前行业存货出货比下行斜率陡峭，库存增速维持低位，供需缺口尚未缓和，价格有望进一步走高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329902872,"gmtCreate":1615195689596,"gmtModify":1704779373052,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329902872","repostId":"1125607315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125607315","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615193170,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125607315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 16:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street is hotly discussing this picture: Why do funds still buy US stocks after continuous plummets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125607315","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"波动性大增、美债收益率飙升，按理说，股市会遭遇抛售。可是，在过去16周中，流入美股的资金达到了创纪录的4360亿美元，这些钱从哪儿来，又投向了哪里？\n\n美国股市的走势，连华尔街都看不懂了。\n在过去的三","content":"<p>With volatility rising and U.S. bond yields soaring, it stands to reason that the stock market will suffer a sell-off. However, in the past 16 weeks, the flow of funds into U.S. stocks has reached a record $436 billion. Where did this money come from and where did it go? Even Wall Street can't understand the trend of the U.S. stock market.</p><p>Over the past three weeks, U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks, have been hit hard, with the Nasdaq slipping 10% cumulatively in a short period of time, while the S&P has also been hit hard.</p><p>Technology leaders are even bleaker: Since late January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Shares fell 15%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Losing more than $25 trillion in market capitalization in three weeks, Nasdaq has wiped more than $1.5 trillion of market capitalization in less than a month.</p><p>However, while the recent surge in US Treasury Bond yields has dealt a blow to risky assets, it has been accompanied by a surge in the volatility index VIX and its MOVE index, which reflects the volatility of the bond market.</p><p><b>However, according to the latest report of EPFR, a capital flow monitoring agency, $22.2 billion of new funds flowed into U.S. stocks last week, after a huge inflow of $46.2 billion the previous week, the third highest on record. In other words, the total inflow of funds into U.S. stocks reached $436 billion in the past 16 weeks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8ff8c96bec400aefe6c3d2f80fe46\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Nowadays, this performance in the U.S. stock market is strange.</b></p><p>Historically, investors have typically withdrawn money when market volatility has increased. Now, on the contrary, they are putting record amounts of money into the stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief strategist David Kostin also noted the issue:</p><p>Treasury Bond yields rose, stocks fell, and long-term growth stocks plunged, but equity funds continued to see significant net inflows. Since the beginning of February, total inflows into equity mutual funds and ETFs have been $163 billion, the highest total inflows in absolute terms in the five weeks on record; The third-largest inflow in a decade, relative to assets.</p><p>While the recent rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields has largely weighed on stock prices, inflows into equity funds have accelerated over the past few weeks compared to the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b2791d3c0cce9c7a9828c4e208a0a70\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By comparison, weekly inflows into bond funds averaged about $10 billion in February, 50% lower than January's weekly inflows. Additionally, there was a net outflow of $34 billion from money market funds over the past month.</p><p>Where does the money come from?</p><p><b>It is undeniable that American retail investors have now become the main force in this round of chasing US stocks.</b></p><p>How active are retail investors?</p><p>According to VandaTrack, which monitors retail traffic in the U.S. market, retail investors snapped up an average of $6.6 billion in U.S. stocks each week, up from the average weekly net purchase of $4.7 billion in 2020.</p><p>Retail investors who shared their trading experiences on trading apps such as Robinhood and social media such as Reddit at the beginning of the year have become accustomed to buying the dip.</p><p>As Bloomberg pointed out over the weekend, the current market turmoil has not swayed retail investors. They firmly believe that the relief plans of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will continue, and the current stock market crash has not made them tearful.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, money from U.S. retail investors poured into the U.S. stock market at a record rate in 2020, increasing by 40%.</p><p>Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said:</p><p><b>Historically, the influx of retail investors into the market has been a bad sign and a sign that the stock market has peaked.</b>However, in 2020, when we saw the frantic entry of retail investors, we often expected the market to peak, but it was often wrong. Where did the money go?</p><p>So much money flowed into the stock market, where did it go?</p><p>Is it continuing to frantically chase those hot-speculated stocks?</p><p><b>But in reality, retail investors have not poured cash into all stocks indiscriminately. Instead, the most favored investment areas for equity funds are those that switch styles, that is, those that benefit from the resumption of economic growth and the pandemic being controlled.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the new entry actually reflects the switch of U.S. stocks from growth stocks to value stocks.</b></p><p>In absolute dollars, stock funds traded in the United States have seen large inflows over the past month (reaching $62 billion). Of these, stock funds such as emerging market stocks, value stocks and small caps have seen the largest inflows, which is consistent with market expectations for economic recovery.</p><p>Kostin believes:</p><p>History has shown that equity funds typically experience inflows when real interest rates fall. The most favourable backdrop for equity fund inflows over the past decade has been rising real interest rates and inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04262993d39e170c96706139be2944d\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street is hotly discussing this picture: Why do funds still buy US stocks after continuous plummets?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street is hotly discussing this picture: Why do funds still buy US stocks after continuous plummets?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 16:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With volatility rising and U.S. bond yields soaring, it stands to reason that the stock market will suffer a sell-off. However, in the past 16 weeks, the flow of funds into U.S. stocks has reached a record $436 billion. Where did this money come from and where did it go? Even Wall Street can't understand the trend of the U.S. stock market.</p><p>Over the past three weeks, U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks, have been hit hard, with the Nasdaq slipping 10% cumulatively in a short period of time, while the S&P has also been hit hard.</p><p>Technology leaders are even bleaker: Since late January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Shares fell 15%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Losing more than $25 trillion in market capitalization in three weeks, Nasdaq has wiped more than $1.5 trillion of market capitalization in less than a month.</p><p>However, while the recent surge in US Treasury Bond yields has dealt a blow to risky assets, it has been accompanied by a surge in the volatility index VIX and its MOVE index, which reflects the volatility of the bond market.</p><p><b>However, according to the latest report of EPFR, a capital flow monitoring agency, $22.2 billion of new funds flowed into U.S. stocks last week, after a huge inflow of $46.2 billion the previous week, the third highest on record. In other words, the total inflow of funds into U.S. stocks reached $436 billion in the past 16 weeks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8ff8c96bec400aefe6c3d2f80fe46\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Nowadays, this performance in the U.S. stock market is strange.</b></p><p>Historically, investors have typically withdrawn money when market volatility has increased. Now, on the contrary, they are putting record amounts of money into the stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief strategist David Kostin also noted the issue:</p><p>Treasury Bond yields rose, stocks fell, and long-term growth stocks plunged, but equity funds continued to see significant net inflows. Since the beginning of February, total inflows into equity mutual funds and ETFs have been $163 billion, the highest total inflows in absolute terms in the five weeks on record; The third-largest inflow in a decade, relative to assets.</p><p>While the recent rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields has largely weighed on stock prices, inflows into equity funds have accelerated over the past few weeks compared to the start of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b2791d3c0cce9c7a9828c4e208a0a70\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By comparison, weekly inflows into bond funds averaged about $10 billion in February, 50% lower than January's weekly inflows. Additionally, there was a net outflow of $34 billion from money market funds over the past month.</p><p>Where does the money come from?</p><p><b>It is undeniable that American retail investors have now become the main force in this round of chasing US stocks.</b></p><p>How active are retail investors?</p><p>According to VandaTrack, which monitors retail traffic in the U.S. market, retail investors snapped up an average of $6.6 billion in U.S. stocks each week, up from the average weekly net purchase of $4.7 billion in 2020.</p><p>Retail investors who shared their trading experiences on trading apps such as Robinhood and social media such as Reddit at the beginning of the year have become accustomed to buying the dip.</p><p>As Bloomberg pointed out over the weekend, the current market turmoil has not swayed retail investors. They firmly believe that the relief plans of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will continue, and the current stock market crash has not made them tearful.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, money from U.S. retail investors poured into the U.S. stock market at a record rate in 2020, increasing by 40%.</p><p>Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, said:</p><p><b>Historically, the influx of retail investors into the market has been a bad sign and a sign that the stock market has peaked.</b>However, in 2020, when we saw the frantic entry of retail investors, we often expected the market to peak, but it was often wrong. Where did the money go?</p><p>So much money flowed into the stock market, where did it go?</p><p>Is it continuing to frantically chase those hot-speculated stocks?</p><p><b>But in reality, retail investors have not poured cash into all stocks indiscriminately. Instead, the most favored investment areas for equity funds are those that switch styles, that is, those that benefit from the resumption of economic growth and the pandemic being controlled.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the new entry actually reflects the switch of U.S. stocks from growth stocks to value stocks.</b></p><p>In absolute dollars, stock funds traded in the United States have seen large inflows over the past month (reaching $62 billion). Of these, stock funds such as emerging market stocks, value stocks and small caps have seen the largest inflows, which is consistent with market expectations for economic recovery.</p><p>Kostin believes:</p><p>History has shown that equity funds typically experience inflows when real interest rates fall. The most favourable backdrop for equity fund inflows over the past decade has been rising real interest rates and inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04262993d39e170c96706139be2944d\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622791\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622791","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1125607315","content_text":"波动性大增、美债收益率飙升，按理说，股市会遭遇抛售。可是，在过去16周中，流入美股的资金达到了创纪录的4360亿美元，这些钱从哪儿来，又投向了哪里？\n\n美国股市的走势，连华尔街都看不懂了。\n在过去的三周中，美国股票，尤其是科技股受到重创，纳斯达克指数短时间内累计滑落了10％，而标普指数也遭受了沉重打击。\n科技龙头更是一片惨淡：自一月下旬以来，苹果股价下跌了15％。特斯拉在三周内损失了超过25万亿美元的市值，不到一个月的时间，纳斯达克市值蒸发了超过1.5万亿美元。\n然而，尽管最近美国国债收益率飙升对风险资产造成了打击，同时伴随着波动性指数VIX及其反映债券市场波动性的MOVE指数大涨。\n但根据资金流向监测机构EPFR最新的报告，上周有222亿美元的新资金流入美股，此前一周有462亿美元的巨额资金流入，创下有记录的第三高，换言之，在过去16周中，美股的资金流入总额达到4360亿美元。\n\n如今，美股市场上的这种表现堪称奇特。\n从历史上看，当市场波动性加剧之际，投资者通常会撤出资金。如今却恰恰相反，他们正在把创纪录的资金投入到股市之中。\n高盛首席策略分析师David Kostin也注意到这一问题：\n\n 国债收益率上升，股票下跌，长期增长型股票暴跌，但股票基金继续看到大量的净流入。\n\n自2月初以来，流入股票共同基金和ETF的资金总额为1630亿美元，按绝对值来统计，这五周的流入资金总额为历史最高；相对于资产而言，是十年来的第三大资金流入。\n尽管近期美国国债收益率的上涨在很大程度上打压了股票价格，但与年初相比，过去几周流入股票基金的速度加快了。\n\n相比之下，2月份每周流入债券基金的资金平均约为100亿美元，比1月份的每周资金流入低50％。此外，过去一个月货币市场基金净流出340亿美元。\n钱从哪里来？\n不可否认的是，如今美国散户成为了这一轮追逐美股的主力。\n散户投资者有多积极？\n根据监控美国市场零售流量的VandaTrack的数据，散户投资者每周平均抢购美国股票达66亿美元，高于2020年每周平均净购买47亿美元的水平。\n年初在Robinhood等交易软件以及Reddit等社交媒体上分享交易心得的散户投资者们，已经习惯了逢低买入。\n正如彭博社在周末指出的那样，目前的市场动荡，并没有让散户投资者动摇，他们坚定地认为，美联储和财政部的救济计划仍将继续，目前的股市大跌还没让他们到含泪割肉的时候。\n据彭博社报道，2020年，美国散户的资金以创纪录的速度涌入美国股市，增幅为40％。\nNational Securities的首席市场策略师Art Hogan说：\n\n从历史上看，散户投资者涌入市场是一个坏信号，并且是一个股市见顶的信号。可是，2020年，当我们看到散户疯狂入场的时候，我们每每预计市场已经见顶，但常常是错误的。\n\n钱去了哪儿？\n这么多资金流入股市，都投向了哪里呢？\n难道是继续疯狂追逐那些被热炒的股票吗？\n但是实际上，散户投资者并没有不分青红皂白地向所有股票投入现金，取而代之的是，股票基金最青睐的投资领域是风格切换的领域，也就是那些得益于经济恢复增长和疫情受控的行业。\n换句话说，新进场的资金实际上反映了美股从成长股到价值股的切换。\n以绝对美元计算，过去一个月在美国交易的股票基金出现了大笔资金流入（达到620亿美元）其中，新兴市场股票、价值股、小型股等股票基金出现了最大的流入量，这与市场对经济复苏的预期一致。\nKostin认为：\n\n 历史表明，股票基金通常会在实际利率下降时经历资金流入。在过去的十年中，股票基金流入的最有利背景是实际利率和通胀率都在上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329901505,"gmtCreate":1615195569007,"gmtModify":1704779369653,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329901505","repostId":"1158252333","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158252333","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615195186,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158252333?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 17:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Jiaduobao Group plans to launch an IPO in Hong Kong this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158252333","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场消息：加多宝集团据悉计划今年在香港进行IPO，并在IPO前寻求至少3亿美元的融资。知情人士说，中国非酒精饮料生产商加多宝集团，寻求在潜在的香港IPO前的一轮融资中筹集至少3亿美元。该知情人士表示，","content":"<p>Market news: Jiaduobao Group is reported to plan to conduct an IPO in Hong Kong this year and seek at least $300 million in financing before the IPO.</p><p>Chinese non-alcoholic beverage maker Jiaduobao Group is seeking to raise at least $300 million in a funding round ahead of a potential Hong Kong IPO, people familiar with the matter said. Jiaduobao is working with advisers on pre-IPO financing and has approached several potential investors, the person said. Jiaduobao aims to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as this year, but has not yet finalized the timing and scale of its listing. Financing before this round of IPO is still under consideration, and the details may be adjusted. A representative for Jiaduobao did not immediately respond to comments.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jiaduobao Group plans to launch an IPO in Hong Kong this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJiaduobao Group plans to launch an IPO in Hong Kong this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-08 17:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market news: Jiaduobao Group is reported to plan to conduct an IPO in Hong Kong this year and seek at least $300 million in financing before the IPO.</p><p>Chinese non-alcoholic beverage maker Jiaduobao Group is seeking to raise at least $300 million in a funding round ahead of a potential Hong Kong IPO, people familiar with the matter said. Jiaduobao is working with advisers on pre-IPO financing and has approached several potential investors, the person said. Jiaduobao aims to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as this year, but has not yet finalized the timing and scale of its listing. Financing before this round of IPO is still under consideration, and the details may be adjusted. A representative for Jiaduobao did not immediately respond to comments.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809e45cace16ec39a5f6cae19a41e02c","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158252333","content_text":"市场消息：加多宝集团据悉计划今年在香港进行IPO，并在IPO前寻求至少3亿美元的融资。知情人士说，中国非酒精饮料生产商加多宝集团，寻求在潜在的香港IPO前的一轮融资中筹集至少3亿美元。该知情人士表示，加多宝正就IPO前的融资与顾问合作，已接触了数名潜在投资者。加多宝的目标是最早今年在香港交易所上市，但尚未敲定上市的时机和规模。此轮IPO前的融资仍在审议中，细节可能有调整。加多宝的代表未立即回应评论。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367426276,"gmtCreate":1614962046195,"gmtModify":1704777707381,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367426276","repostId":"1195280692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195280692","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614959649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195280692?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Senate Democrats reach agreement on extending unemployment insurance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195280692","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","content":"<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits through September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Senate Democrats reach agreement on extending unemployment insurance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Senate Democrats reach agreement on extending unemployment insurance\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits through September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ad66c83796c50731ef69a802b644e7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195280692","content_text":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":141867934,"gmtCreate":1625848055628,"gmtModify":1703749893583,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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again?🤦🏻‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954375523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179509051,"gmtCreate":1626546388273,"gmtModify":1703761605791,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>?","text":"$Palantir Technologies 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23:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Senate Democrats reach agreement on extending unemployment insurance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195280692","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","content":"<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits through September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Senate Democrats reach agreement on extending unemployment insurance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Senate Democrats reach agreement on extending unemployment insurance\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. Senate Democrats reached an agreement on a proposal to extend unemployment benefits through September instead of Aug. 29, with weekly benefits of $300 instead of $400.</p><p>If the new Senate Democratic proposal is adopted, the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits will not be taxed.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ad66c83796c50731ef69a802b644e7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195280692","content_text":"美国参议院民主党人就延长失业救济金至9月而不是8月29日的提案达成协议，每周救济金为300美元，而不是400美元。如果参议院民主党的新提案被采纳，第一笔10200美元的失业救济金将不会被征税。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146467761,"gmtCreate":1626097172253,"gmtModify":1703753293287,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>???","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146467761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322036494,"gmtCreate":1615731407018,"gmtModify":1704786007044,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322036494","repostId":"2119921993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119921993","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1615698793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119921993?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-14 13:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is Biden's infrastructure expected to pass within the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119921993","media":"智通财经网","summary":"拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在已经使用过“调和程序”的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?","content":"<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han on Macro, written by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Content Summary</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful rollout of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy priority. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? With the Democrats already using the \"reconciliation process\" to advance 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional and old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>Legislative Congressional Process: Both chambers require a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, more than half of the members of Congress agree to pass.</p><p>Major obstacles to legislation: A reconciliation process may be required to bypass obstacles to Senate proceedings. It is important to note that minority senators can prevent a vote from proceeding by \"filibuster\" indefinitely extending speaking time, and only 60 votes can be reached to terminate the debate. The \"reconciliation process\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of deliberation, and only a simple majority is required to pass a bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus was to use the \"reconciliation process\" to legislate smoothly with zero support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Prospect of Infrastructure Promotion: Ideal scenario downward adjustment and procedures can be started again as early as October 1st. According to historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation procedure at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill is to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, if infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" again, it needs to wait until the US fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables on whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the congressional change in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another midterm election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Midterm Elections\" for details), there are still variables about whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority of seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to move forward with major legislation as soon as possible before then, and from this perspective, it is understandable that Biden is pushing forward with such urgency with infrastructure plans.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure rehabilitation + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories classified as \"D\". Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be addressed urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair, clean energy upgrading in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries, and the budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures do Congress need to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that reconciliation procedures will be needed to bypass obstacles to deliberations.</p><p>According to the United States Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, and overturning the presidential veto power, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree to be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no time limit for discussion, members can prevent a vote by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the agreement (60 votes) can terminate a debate, a system known as \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstructions have been used more and more often in Congress, with more than 300 obstructions used in the previous Congress (116th).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation process” can effectively circumvent the obstruction of proceedings, limiting the Senate to 20 hours of debate, and requiring only a simple majority to pass a bill. From the process point of view, the flow of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote just passed, the \"reconciliation process\" also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed, but all Republicans opposed. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated by the \"reconciliation procedure\" to be legislated smoothly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure uses the premise that the motion complies with the \"Byrd Rule\". During discussion in the Senate of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to file a procedural objection that the bill violates the \"Byrd Rule\". The proposal is then decided by the councillors, which can also be rejected by a vote of more than 60 senators. The Byrd Rule stipulates that a reconciliation proceeding motion shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not change expenditures or revenues</p><p>Change in expenditure or income is inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of the provision</p><p>The budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the requirements of the reconciliation process (usually 10 years)</p><p>Modification of Social Security in Budget Resolution</p><p>Apart from procedural constraints, there is no precedent for reconciliation procedures to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (that is, necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc., and infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There has also been no precedent in history for the use of \"reconciliation procedures\" to pass infrastructure bills.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can the reconciliation program be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be reused after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use reconciliation bills up to three times per fiscal year on the topics of revenue, expenditure, and federal debt limits, and each topic can be used only once. But since bills typically deal with more than one subject, it is historical experience that the reconciliation process is used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of the U.S. financial year does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. As a result, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 does not take up the reconciliation process quota for fiscal 2022. In principle, the reconciliation procedure can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure has also been successfully used twice in 2017. In early 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass a bill to repeal Obamacare through a reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, it is highly likely that the Biden administration will propose the infrastructure plan as soon as possible in order to maximize its political appeal before the 2022 congressional election. As a result, the Biden administration could bring the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as this October if it attempts to move it forward through a reconciliation process.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Biden's infrastructure expected to pass within the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Biden's infrastructure expected to pass within the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-14 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from Wang Han on Macro, written by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Wang Han, chief macro analyst.</b></p><p><b>Content Summary</b></p><p>On March 4, 2021, Biden met with eight members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a follow-up to a Feb. 11 meeting with senators on infrastructure. After the successful rollout of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, infrastructure may become Biden's next policy priority. What does Biden's infrastructure package include? What process is required for legislation? With the Democrats already using the \"reconciliation process\" to advance 1.9 trillion stimulus legislation, can infrastructure still be legislated within the year? We will explain them one by one in this article.</p><p>Main content of infrastructure: 2 trillion-restoration of traditional facilities + upgrading of clean energy industry. Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers the restoration of traditional and old infrastructure and the upgrading of clean energy in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries. The budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>Legislative Congressional Process: Both chambers require a simple majority to pass. Generally speaking, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, more than half of the members of Congress agree to pass.</p><p>Major obstacles to legislation: A reconciliation process may be required to bypass obstacles to Senate proceedings. It is important to note that minority senators can prevent a vote from proceeding by \"filibuster\" indefinitely extending speaking time, and only 60 votes can be reached to terminate the debate. The \"reconciliation process\" can effectively circumvent the obstacles of deliberation, and only a simple majority is required to pass a bill. The recently passed 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus was to use the \"reconciliation process\" to legislate smoothly with zero support from Republican lawmakers.</p><p>Prospect of Infrastructure Promotion: Ideal scenario downward adjustment and procedures can be started again as early as October 1st. According to historical experience, the United States can use the reconciliation procedure at most once per fiscal year. Considering that the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill is to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" in the fiscal year 2021 budget resolution, if infrastructure legislation wants to enable the \"reconciliation procedure\" again, it needs to wait until the US fiscal year 2022 (October 1, 2021) at the earliest.</p><p>Why Biden is urgent: There are variables on whether the \"Blue Sweep\" can be maintained after the congressional change in 2022. Considering that the U.S. Congress will usher in another midterm election in 2022 (see \"Everything You Need to Know About the U.S. Midterm Elections\" for details), there are still variables about whether the Democratic Party can maintain the current majority of seats in both houses. From this perspective, Biden has a strong incentive to move forward with major legislation as soon as possible before then, and from this perspective, it is understandable that Biden is pushing forward with such urgency with infrastructure plans.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Q1: What does Biden's infrastructure include?</p><p>A1: Traditional infrastructure rehabilitation + clean energy industry upgrading, with a package budget of about 2 trillion USD.</p><p>After the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package is passed, the Biden administration's next policy focus may shift to infrastructure. According to the latest American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rating of the state of infrastructure in the United States, the state of infrastructure in the United States was \"C-\" in 2021, with 11 of the 17 classification categories classified as \"D\". Therefore, the problem of aging infrastructure in the United States needs to be addressed urgently, and infrastructure may be the next important issue for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the infrastructure plan initially proposed by the Biden administration, the plan mainly covers infrastructure repair, clean energy upgrading in automobiles, electric power, construction and other industries, and the budget of the infrastructure plan package is about 2 trillion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6a471639acda663d49c59352b36e03f9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q2: What procedures do Congress need to pass the infrastructure plan?</p><p>A2: There is a high probability that reconciliation procedures will be needed to bypass obstacles to deliberations.</p><p>According to the United States Constitution, except for impeachment, removal of members of Congress, amendment of the Constitution, and overturning the presidential veto power, most bills in the United States only need to be passed by the principle of \"simple majority\" in the United States Congress, that is, as long as more than half of the members of Congress agree to be passed.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41a6bf6ec78a47b26e03fe7b8fbc9537.jpg\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, since the Senate has no time limit for discussion, members can prevent a vote by extending the speaking time indefinitely, and only three-fifths of the agreement (60 votes) can terminate a debate, a system known as \"filibuster\". In recent years, obstructions have been used more and more often in Congress, with more than 300 obstructions used in the previous Congress (116th).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3ff2fbb28177d30f8842ccdc03d21639.jpg\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"reconciliation process” can effectively circumvent the obstruction of proceedings, limiting the Senate to 20 hours of debate, and requiring only a simple majority to pass a bill. From the process point of view, the flow of the reconciliation process is not complicated, so using the reconciliation process to pass the infrastructure plan may be the optimal solution for the Biden administration.</p><p>Judging from the results of the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus vote just passed, the \"reconciliation process\" also played an important role. In the Senate vote, all Democrats passed, but all Republicans opposed. The fiscal stimulus bill relies on the principle of simple majority approval stipulated by the \"reconciliation procedure\" to be legislated smoothly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c83412fed1839371a5859ac83f352d74.jpg\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/025f2586e9685b8635386adf28a7e514.jpg\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1577546503e46a36f098350d530bb013.jpg\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the reconciliation procedure uses the premise that the motion complies with the \"Byrd Rule\". During discussion in the Senate of a bill containing reconciliation procedures, any member has the right to file a procedural objection that the bill violates the \"Byrd Rule\". The proposal is then decided by the councillors, which can also be rejected by a vote of more than 60 senators. The Byrd Rule stipulates that a reconciliation proceeding motion shall not include the following scenarios:</p><p>Budget proposals for reconciliation procedures do not change expenditures or revenues</p><p>Change in expenditure or income is inconsistent with the \"reconciliation directive\"</p><p>Submission of reconciliation resolutions outside the jurisdiction of the Commission</p><p>Changes in expenditure or income are merely incidental to non-budgetary components of the provision</p><p>The budget resolution increases the deficit beyond the requirements of the reconciliation process (usually 10 years)</p><p>Modification of Social Security in Budget Resolution</p><p>Apart from procedural constraints, there is no precedent for reconciliation procedures to be used in infrastructure projects. The use requirement of \"reconciliation procedure\" is Mandatory Spending (that is, necessary expenditure), which mainly includes social security, medical insurance, medical assistance, income support, etc., and infrastructure expenditure is not explicitly included. There has also been no precedent in history for the use of \"reconciliation procedures\" to pass infrastructure bills.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8bd426573ce029f44d937d8e1f88028c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Q3: Can the reconciliation program be used again this year?</p><p>A3: It can be reused after October 1, 2021.</p><p>In principle, Congress can use reconciliation bills up to three times per fiscal year on the topics of revenue, expenditure, and federal debt limits, and each topic can be used only once. But since bills typically deal with more than one subject, it is historical experience that the reconciliation process is used at most once per fiscal year.</p><p>However, the division of the U.S. financial year does not start on January 1, but on October 1, so October 1, 2021 is the beginning of fiscal year 2022. As a result, the 1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus passed in March 2021 does not take up the reconciliation process quota for fiscal 2022. In principle, the reconciliation procedure can be used again after October 1, 2021.</p><p>Historically, the reconciliation procedure has also been successfully used twice in 2017. In early 2017, the Trump administration tried to pass a bill to repeal Obamacare through a reconciliation process; In December 2017, the Trump administration once again used the reconciliation process and successfully introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.</p><p>Considering the current \"blue sweep\" situation of the Biden administration, it is highly likely that the Biden administration will propose the infrastructure plan as soon as possible in order to maximize its political appeal before the 2022 congressional election. As a result, the Biden administration could bring the infrastructure plan to Congress as early as this October if it attempts to move it forward through a reconciliation process.</p><p>Risk warning: The epidemic situation in the United States is uncertain, and policy changes exceed expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210314/20210314111415_39549.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"CAT":"卡特彼勒"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426877.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2119921993","content_text":"本文来自 王涵论宏观，作者为兴业证券宏观首席分析师王涵。内容摘要2021年3月4日，拜登会见了众议院运输和基础设施委员会的八名成员，这是2月11日与参议员就基础设施举行会议的后续行动。1.9万亿财政刺激法案成功推出后，基建可能将成为拜登的下一个政策重点。拜登的一揽子基建计划包括哪些内容?立法需要什么流程?在民主党已经使用“调和程序”推进1.9万亿刺激立法的背景下，基建还能在年内立法吗?我们将在本文中一一解读。基建主要内容：2万亿——传统设施修复+清洁能源产业升级。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了传统老旧的基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿美元。立法国会流程：参众两院均需简单多数即可通过。一般来说，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。立法主要障碍：或需通过调和程序绕开参议院议事阻碍。需要注意的是，少数党参议员可以通过“议事阻碍”(filibuster)无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到60票才可以终止辩论。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。近期通过的1.9万亿财政刺激就是使用“调和程序”，在共和党议员零票支持的背景下顺利立法。基建推进展望：理想情景下调和程序最早能在10月1日再次启用。历史经验来看，美国每个财年最多能使用一次调和程序，考虑到1.9万亿刺激法案是在2021年财年预算决议中启用“调和程序”，基建立法想再次启用“调和程序”，最早需要等到美国2022财年(2021年10月1日)。拜登缘何急迫：2022年国会换届后能否维持“Blue Sweep”存在变数。考虑到2022年美国国会将迎来再次的中期选举(详参《关于美国中期选举你需要知道的一切》)，民主党能否维持当前两院多数党席位，仍然存在变数。从这个角度而言，拜登有极强的动力在此之前尽快推进重大立法，从这个角度可以理解拜登如此紧迫地推进基建方案。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。正文Q1：拜登基建内容包括什么?A1：传统基础设施修复+清洁能源产业升级，一揽子预算约2万亿美元。1.9万亿财政刺激计划通过后，拜登政府下一步的政策重心可能会转移到基建。根据美国土木工程师协会(ASCE)对美国基础设施状况的最新评级，美国2021年基础设施状况为“C-”，17个分类类别中，有11个类别属于“D”级。因此，美国基础设施老化的问题亟待解决，基建可能是拜登政府的下一个重要议题。从拜登政府初步提出的基建计划来看，方案主要涵盖了基础设施修复，汽车、电力、建筑等行业的清洁能源升级，一揽子基建计划预算约为2万亿。Q2：基建计划的通过需要国会什么程序?A2：大概率需要通过调和程序以绕开议事阻碍。根据美国宪法规定，除了弹劾、除名国会成员、修改宪法、推翻总统否决权等情况，美国的大多数法案在美国国会只需要遵守“简单多数”通过的原则，即只要一半以上的国会议员同意就可通过。然而由于参议院对讨论的时间没有限制，议员可以通过无限延长发言时间来阻止投票的进行，而只有达到五分之三同意(60票)才可以终止辩论，这种制度被称为“议事阻碍”(filibuster)。近些年来，议事阻碍被使用在国会的次数越来越多，上一届国会(116届)使用议事阻碍的次数达到了300多次。“调和程序”(reconciliation)能够有效绕开议事阻碍，将参议院的辩论时间限制在20小时之内，且只需要简单多数同意即可通过法案。从流程上来看，调和程序的流程并不复杂，因此使用调和程序通过基建计划可能为拜登政府的最优解。从刚刚通过的1.9万亿财政刺激投票结果来看，“调和程序”也发挥了重要作用。参议院投票中，民主党全员通过，但共和党全员反对。财政刺激的议案依靠“调和程序”规定的简单多数通过原则，得以顺利立法。然而，调和程序使用的前提是议案遵守“伯德规则”。在参议院对包含调和程序的议案讨论过程中，任何议员都有权提出该议案违反“伯德规则”，提出程序性反对。之后由议事官对该提议进行裁定，该裁定也可由60名以上的参议员投票进行否决。“伯德规则”规定调和程序议案不得包括以下情景：调和程序的预算提案不改变支出或收入支出或收入的改变与“调和指令”中不符在委员会管辖范围外提交调和决议支出或收入变化仅仅是该经费的非预算组成部分所附带的预算决议中赤字增加到超出调和程序的规定(通常为十年)预算决议中涉及修改社会保障除了程序上的限制外，调和程序并未有在基建计划上使用的先例。“调和程序”的使用要求是Mandatory Spending(即必要支出)，这主要包含社保、医保、医疗救助、收入支持等，基建支出并未有明确包含在内。历史上也并未有使用“调和程序”通过基建法案的先例。Q3：调和程序(reconciliation)今年还能再用吗?A3：2021年10月1日之后可以再用。原则上来说，国会每个财年最多使用三次调和法案，涉及的主题分别为收入、支出和联邦债务限额，每一个主题分别只能使用一次。但是由于通常来说议案会涉及不止一个主题，所以历史经验来看每个财年调和程序最多使用了一次。然而，美国财经年度的划分并不是从1月1日开始，而是10月1日，所以2021年10月1日为2022财年的开始。因此，2021年3月通过的1.9万亿财政刺激并不会占用2022财年的调和程序额度。原则上来说，2021年10月1日之后，调和程序还可以再次使用。历史上来看，2017年也成功使用了两次调和程序。2017年初，特朗普政府试图通过调和程序来通过废除奥巴马医改的法案;2017年12月，特朗普政府再次使用调和程序并成功推出了《减税和就业法》。考虑到拜登政府目前“blue sweep”的局面，想要在2022年国会换届选举之前实现政治诉求的最大化，拜登政府大概率会尽早对基建计划进行提案。因此，如果试图通过调和程序来推进基建计划，拜登政府可能会在最早今年10月将基建计划提交国会。风险提示：美国疫情不确定性，政策变化超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818550976,"gmtCreate":1630420864895,"gmtModify":1676530299571,"author":{"id":"3576483377389898","authorId":"3576483377389898","name":"InkLeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849e577d9e53aa9d5078e2eeb22589e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576483377389898","authorIdStr":"3576483377389898"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMAT\">$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$</a>??","text":"$Meta Materials 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