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Tesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$&nbsp;</a>Best stock to hold&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$&nbsp;</a>Best stock to hold&nbsp;","text":"$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Best stock to 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market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234298361405448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957624427,"gmtCreate":1677230475969,"gmtModify":1677230479744,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576550818064904","authorIdStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957624427","repostId":"2313059413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2313059413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677226034,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2313059413?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2023-02-24 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2313059413","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or a tech company?</li><li>In this article, I would like to share how I have come to find the answer.</li><li>I will share my investing choice, talking about Tesla&#39;s current valuation and potential investing alternatives.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d9444e059df9e26126c6a2ea34e297\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>coffeekai</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of those stocks - and companies - very difficult to write about without being caught in the fight between fans and haters. This is why, though quite interested in the automotive industry, I have been hesitant to writeabout it. In truth, there has been a lot of buzz about electric vehicles (&#34;EVs&#34;), and I think it hard to deny Tesla was a stock that experienced a lot of hype, leading to extreme valuations. This has made me cautious about it, as I know buzz and hype can be exciting but can lead to rash investing decisions.</p><p>To be clear from the beginning of this article, I am no Tesla detractor. However, I am no Tesla investor, either. I do think Tesla is a great company, whose future is probably going to be quite bright. On the other hand, thereare a few things about the stock that rule it out of my portfolio where I actually own three other automakers.</p><p>In this article, I will share for the first time my view on Tesla, hoping to present my thesis as objectively as possible. At the same time, I would like to show why I am currently building up a position in what seems to me an underestimated competitor of Tesla.</p><h2>The big question about Tesla</h2><p>The first question I had to find an answer to assess Tesla was the following: what kind of company do I think Tesla is?</p><p>We generally find two answers that revolve around these two concepts:</p><ol><li>Tesla is a tech company</li><li>Tesla is an automaker.</li></ol><p>I know things can be more complex, but as far as my research goes I really think this is the crossroad where two different investing views and strategies diverge.</p><p>I find myself agreeing with the second answer: Tesla is an automaker. This is somewhat supported by what the company states in its 10-k.</p><blockquote>We design, develop, manufacture, sell and lease high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offer services related to our products. We generally sell our products directly to customers, and continue to grow our customer-facing infrastructure through a global network of vehicle service centers, Mobile Service, body shops, Supercharger stations and Destination Chargers to accelerate the widespread adoption of our products. We emphasize performance, attractive styling and the safety of our users and workforce in the design and manufacture of our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology for improved safety. We also strive to lower the cost of ownership for our customers through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing costs and by offering financial and other services tailored to our products.</blockquote><p>To be fair, these words are not only about electric vehicles manufacturing, as Tesla also claims to be focusing on energy generation and storage systems as well as on developing full self-driving technology (&#34;FSD&#34;). However, I see these other activities as necessarily linked to the manufacturing one. Tesla is indeed disruptive, and it has been a true pioneer, but I see it as the one company that redesigns what all other automakers will need to become to survive and thrive.</p><p>Why do I think it important to answer this question? Simply put, it tells us what industry we think Tesla is a part of. This is quite important when we do a valuation of Tesla, as we need to look at the multiples of the industry.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s financials support this view, too. In fact, if we look at the income statement streams chart, we clearly see how auto sales have the lion&#39;s share of total revenues, with $67.2 billion out of the total $81.5 billion (82.5%). If we consider the auto segment as a whole, including leasing and regulatory credits, Tesla earns 87.7% of its total revenues through activities linked to electric vehicles.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e4e531b8126431a0d311e3260e386c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>created by incomestatementguy on reddit.it</span></p><p>In addition, it seems like Elon Musk himself thinks about Tesla as a &#34;volume carmaker&#34; in the &#34;automotive market,&#34; words he used during the last earnings call.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s financials</h2><p>It is hard not to like Tesla&#39;s financials, especially if we look at their unfolding through the past decade. We have a CAGR revenue growth of almost 45%, while gross profit grew at a CAGR of 46.5% and EBITDA saw a stunning 81.6% CAGR from 2013 to the end of 2022.</p><p>In recent years, the company has turned profitable, and since 2020 its net income has moved up from $721 million to $12.56 billion, which is a CAGR of 317.31%. This is what happens when a company finally reaches scale.</p><p>Its balance sheet is strong, with just $1 billion of long-term debt and more than $22 billion in cash and short-term investments.</p><p>Free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) is also strong, with $4.2 billion generated at the end of 2022 vs. the -$32.5 million reported at the end of 2013. The only flaw is that Tesla paid $1.56 billion in stock-based compensation (&#34;SBC&#34;), which actually makes the real free cash flow available to investors just $1 billion. In fact, as of now SBC is added to net income to calculate the final FCF, but, in reality, it is an expense that should be moved down to financing activities and be accounted for as an expense. Therefore, we have to subtract the amount spent on SBC twice to offset the current accounting rule that sees it as an addition, and then to subtract the real expense from the previous amount.</p><p>However, on a positive note, Tesla seems to be reducing its SBC, since in 2021 it paid over $2.1 billion for this. But, still, the dilutive effect is sensible.</p><p>In terms of profitability, the company is best in class. Here I would like to show one of my favorite graphs Tesla shares with investors. We see that, while the average selling price (ASP) moves down and then stabilizes around $55,000, the operating margin goes steadily up, coming in at 17%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6750ec65a212dc9254efea6c82c89a41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder Deck</span></p><p>This is another way to prove how it was vital for Tesla to reach scale, as it has done in recent years. Now, every dollar of additional revenue is more valuable because of increasingly good operating efficiency.</p><p>Tesla reported 1.31 million cars sold in 2022 and expects to sell 1.8 million vehicles by the end of this fiscal year. Its plan was bold, targeting a 50% CAGR from 2020 to 2023. It is rather easy to think Tesla seems able to reach this goal.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79730c77c37c3638501639b6d53d9ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder Deck</span></p><p>So, if everything is so bright, why am I not investing in Tesla?</p><h2>Why I am not a Tesla shareholder</h2><p>I have some perplexities about Tesla&#39;s expectations for the future, which inevitably impact my view of its valuation.</p><p>Before we move on, let me state once again that I am no Tesla bear, nor do I think the stock should be shorted, even though it may have indeed reached a recent peak. However, this is not my investing style, since I look for companies to hold for a decade or two.</p><p>Let me share what I am thinking about Tesla&#39;s upcoming years.</p><p>The first thing I wonder about is linked to what automotive segment the company wants to address. We saw how Mr. Musk considers Tesla a volume carmaker. But we don&#39;t know exactly what kind of volume carmaker Tesla wants to be. Does it aim at being an 8 million one, like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), General Motors (GM) or Toyota (TM)? Does it aim at selling between 2 and 3 million vehicles per year, like Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGAF) or BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) do? The answer to this question is quite important for a forecast.</p><p>Currently, Tesla manufactures four vehicles: the Model 3, Y, S and X. While Model 3 and Model Y have a base price for mass-market appeal, the other two don&#39;t. Still, both Model 3 and Model Y have a starting selling price between $40,000 and $60,000, which is not exactly the price range to address all consumers. The other two models have a starting selling price around $100,000.</p><p>Tesla has written more than once that it is committed to making its manufacturing process more efficient to bring down the average selling price. However, there are other automakers that are able to sell electric vehicles at more affordable prices. Tesla may start manufacturing subcompact vehicles, but this would benefit mostly volumes over margins, as that segment is highly competitive and many automakers are already or will soon be producing electric cars for this market.</p><p>The other option is that Tesla turns into a premium volume automaker. This will make it compete with brands such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Lexus and others. While this is a higher margin segment, volumes are a bit lower, with Mercedes and BMW selling about 2 million vehicles per year. Tesla may do a bit more, but I don&#39;t see it grabbing away from brands with such a strength all their market share.</p><p>In fact, Mercedes&#39; electric car portfolio seems to be already richer than Tesla&#39;s.</p><p>In other words, I have a hard time thinking Tesla will be able to grow significantly among premium brands without finding hard competition with well-established and highly-appreciated brands.</p><p>On the other hand, Tesla has the advantage in that it doesn&#39;t have to cannibalize its old models, while all other OEMs do. However, while we are seeing the same thing happening with Netflix (NFLX) and its other streaming competitors, where the latter have to cannibalize their profitable cable business to build up their own streaming platform, in the case of automakers, the shift toward EVs is actually generating higher profitability.</p><h2>My take: The issue with Tesla&#39;s valuation and what already I own instead of it</h2><p>It may not sound that original saying that what keeps me from investing in Tesla is its sky-high valuation. But let&#39;s recall that oftentimes the easiest and most renowned investing principles are forgotten when buzz and hype take place. For sure, Tesla is exciting and this is why we should double down and caution.</p><p>On my side, I don&#39;t immediately run away from a stock because I see a high P/E or a high P/FCF multiple. For example, staying within the automotive industry, I own Ferrari (RACE). I would never compare Ferrari to Tesla. They are too different. But it is just an example to show how I am willing to pay a higher price when I think it is worth it.</p><p>However, the big difference I see between Ferrari and Tesla is that Ferrari&#39;s future results are much more predictable than Tesla&#39;s. Still, a jewel like Ferrari trades a lower multiples compared to Tesla: Ferrari trades at a 39 fwd P/E vs. Tesla&#39;s 58, its fwd EV/EBITDA is 21.4 vs. Tesla&#39;s 31, its P/FCF is 37.3 vs. Tesla&#39;s 44.8. And this happens while Ferrari&#39;s profitability metrics are better than Tesla&#39;s: 24% EBIT margin vs. 16.8%; net income margin at 18.4% for Ferrari while for Tesla it is at 15.4%, return on equity of 40.6% for Ferrari and at 32.5% for Tesla.</p><p>Coming down to a more realistic comparison, so that we don&#39;t risk to mix apples with oranges, let&#39;s look at Mercedes and compare it to Tesla (in bold is the better result between the two):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419bc889efd58b6e8e2d7b158e5d56b1\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla is the winner, but Mercedes is not very far behind, especially as we move down the income statement. Now, let&#39;s see how the market prices Tesla&#39;s leading position compared to Mercedes:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9e9e951f1e5f0e7649a9c1478da748\" tg-width=\"378\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To me, the difference is too wide, especially if we consider Mercedes&#39; high-quality strategy that is effectively managing to increase the company&#39;s profitability.</p><p>This is why I actually own Mercedes as my favorite pick among premium luxury automakers.</p><p>My third pick - even though, as I have tried to explain, I think we are once again at risk of comparing chalk and cheese - is Stellantis N.V. (STLA). If we look at automakers that produce affordable vehicles truly addressed to customers without deep pockets, then I think the Stellantis bull case almost speaks for itself as soon as we look at its financials and at its multiples. We are talking about a double-digit margin automaker, with incredibly skilled management, lots of tailwinds going for it (i.e., synergies), low geopolitical risk, etc. trading at unreasonable multiples of a 3 fwd P/E, a 1.2 fwd (EV/EBITDA) and a 2.3 P/FCF. I am not kidding. The company trades as if it were to go bankrupt tomorrow, while it is swimming in cash.</p><p>Let me share my discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) model on Tesla, just to check if my thesis may be supported by future cash flow. Even projecting a 5 year free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) growth rate of 45% and then assuming a 9% perpetual growth rate (very generous assumptions), I still find TSLA stock should not trade over $150.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07f13a52a88af371a1b262a496e9e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author, with data from SA and own future forecast</span></p><p>As I said, it is not my investing style to short a stock or make short-term trades. I am in for the long term. But I think Tesla, Inc.&#39;s stock got a bit ahead of itself, especially given the fact that it has reached such volumes that will make it harder for the company to keep on growing at the fast pace investors are expecting. Many investors have for sure gained a lot of money with Tesla stock, while many other have lost a ton of it. As for me, I keep on studying Tesla, Inc. as an investor interested in the industry, but I don&#39;t see TSLA stock as appealing as other opportunities. This is why I rate Tesla, Inc. as a hold.</p><p><i>This article is written by Luca Socci for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Automaker Or Tech Company? My Take And My Investing Choice\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-24 16:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580350-tesla-automaker-or-tech-company-my-take-and-my-investing-choice><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or a tech company?In this article, I would like to share how I have come to find the answer.I will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580350-tesla-automaker-or-tech-company-my-take-and-my-investing-choice\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580350-tesla-automaker-or-tech-company-my-take-and-my-investing-choice","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2313059413","content_text":"SummaryThe big dilemma about Tesla, Inc. lies in the answer to a question: is Tesla an automaker or a tech company?In this article, I would like to share how I have come to find the answer.I will share my investing choice, talking about Tesla's current valuation and potential investing alternatives.coffeekaiIntroductionTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of those stocks - and companies - very difficult to write about without being caught in the fight between fans and haters. This is why, though quite interested in the automotive industry, I have been hesitant to writeabout it. In truth, there has been a lot of buzz about electric vehicles (\"EVs\"), and I think it hard to deny Tesla was a stock that experienced a lot of hype, leading to extreme valuations. This has made me cautious about it, as I know buzz and hype can be exciting but can lead to rash investing decisions.To be clear from the beginning of this article, I am no Tesla detractor. However, I am no Tesla investor, either. I do think Tesla is a great company, whose future is probably going to be quite bright. On the other hand, thereare a few things about the stock that rule it out of my portfolio where I actually own three other automakers.In this article, I will share for the first time my view on Tesla, hoping to present my thesis as objectively as possible. At the same time, I would like to show why I am currently building up a position in what seems to me an underestimated competitor of Tesla.The big question about TeslaThe first question I had to find an answer to assess Tesla was the following: what kind of company do I think Tesla is?We generally find two answers that revolve around these two concepts:Tesla is a tech companyTesla is an automaker.I know things can be more complex, but as far as my research goes I really think this is the crossroad where two different investing views and strategies diverge.I find myself agreeing with the second answer: Tesla is an automaker. This is somewhat supported by what the company states in its 10-k.We design, develop, manufacture, sell and lease high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offer services related to our products. We generally sell our products directly to customers, and continue to grow our customer-facing infrastructure through a global network of vehicle service centers, Mobile Service, body shops, Supercharger stations and Destination Chargers to accelerate the widespread adoption of our products. We emphasize performance, attractive styling and the safety of our users and workforce in the design and manufacture of our products and are continuing to develop full self-driving technology for improved safety. We also strive to lower the cost of ownership for our customers through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing costs and by offering financial and other services tailored to our products.To be fair, these words are not only about electric vehicles manufacturing, as Tesla also claims to be focusing on energy generation and storage systems as well as on developing full self-driving technology (\"FSD\"). However, I see these other activities as necessarily linked to the manufacturing one. Tesla is indeed disruptive, and it has been a true pioneer, but I see it as the one company that redesigns what all other automakers will need to become to survive and thrive.Why do I think it important to answer this question? Simply put, it tells us what industry we think Tesla is a part of. This is quite important when we do a valuation of Tesla, as we need to look at the multiples of the industry.Tesla's financials support this view, too. In fact, if we look at the income statement streams chart, we clearly see how auto sales have the lion's share of total revenues, with $67.2 billion out of the total $81.5 billion (82.5%). If we consider the auto segment as a whole, including leasing and regulatory credits, Tesla earns 87.7% of its total revenues through activities linked to electric vehicles.created by incomestatementguy on reddit.itIn addition, it seems like Elon Musk himself thinks about Tesla as a \"volume carmaker\" in the \"automotive market,\" words he used during the last earnings call.Tesla's financialsIt is hard not to like Tesla's financials, especially if we look at their unfolding through the past decade. We have a CAGR revenue growth of almost 45%, while gross profit grew at a CAGR of 46.5% and EBITDA saw a stunning 81.6% CAGR from 2013 to the end of 2022.In recent years, the company has turned profitable, and since 2020 its net income has moved up from $721 million to $12.56 billion, which is a CAGR of 317.31%. This is what happens when a company finally reaches scale.Its balance sheet is strong, with just $1 billion of long-term debt and more than $22 billion in cash and short-term investments.Free cash flow (\"FCF\") is also strong, with $4.2 billion generated at the end of 2022 vs. the -$32.5 million reported at the end of 2013. The only flaw is that Tesla paid $1.56 billion in stock-based compensation (\"SBC\"), which actually makes the real free cash flow available to investors just $1 billion. In fact, as of now SBC is added to net income to calculate the final FCF, but, in reality, it is an expense that should be moved down to financing activities and be accounted for as an expense. Therefore, we have to subtract the amount spent on SBC twice to offset the current accounting rule that sees it as an addition, and then to subtract the real expense from the previous amount.However, on a positive note, Tesla seems to be reducing its SBC, since in 2021 it paid over $2.1 billion for this. But, still, the dilutive effect is sensible.In terms of profitability, the company is best in class. Here I would like to show one of my favorite graphs Tesla shares with investors. We see that, while the average selling price (ASP) moves down and then stabilizes around $55,000, the operating margin goes steadily up, coming in at 17%.Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder DeckThis is another way to prove how it was vital for Tesla to reach scale, as it has done in recent years. Now, every dollar of additional revenue is more valuable because of increasingly good operating efficiency.Tesla reported 1.31 million cars sold in 2022 and expects to sell 1.8 million vehicles by the end of this fiscal year. Its plan was bold, targeting a 50% CAGR from 2020 to 2023. It is rather easy to think Tesla seems able to reach this goal.Tesla Q4 2022 Shareholder DeckSo, if everything is so bright, why am I not investing in Tesla?Why I am not a Tesla shareholderI have some perplexities about Tesla's expectations for the future, which inevitably impact my view of its valuation.Before we move on, let me state once again that I am no Tesla bear, nor do I think the stock should be shorted, even though it may have indeed reached a recent peak. However, this is not my investing style, since I look for companies to hold for a decade or two.Let me share what I am thinking about Tesla's upcoming years.The first thing I wonder about is linked to what automotive segment the company wants to address. We saw how Mr. Musk considers Tesla a volume carmaker. But we don't know exactly what kind of volume carmaker Tesla wants to be. Does it aim at being an 8 million one, like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), General Motors (GM) or Toyota (TM)? Does it aim at selling between 2 and 3 million vehicles per year, like Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGAF) or BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) do? The answer to this question is quite important for a forecast.Currently, Tesla manufactures four vehicles: the Model 3, Y, S and X. While Model 3 and Model Y have a base price for mass-market appeal, the other two don't. Still, both Model 3 and Model Y have a starting selling price between $40,000 and $60,000, which is not exactly the price range to address all consumers. The other two models have a starting selling price around $100,000.Tesla has written more than once that it is committed to making its manufacturing process more efficient to bring down the average selling price. However, there are other automakers that are able to sell electric vehicles at more affordable prices. Tesla may start manufacturing subcompact vehicles, but this would benefit mostly volumes over margins, as that segment is highly competitive and many automakers are already or will soon be producing electric cars for this market.The other option is that Tesla turns into a premium volume automaker. This will make it compete with brands such as Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Lexus and others. While this is a higher margin segment, volumes are a bit lower, with Mercedes and BMW selling about 2 million vehicles per year. Tesla may do a bit more, but I don't see it grabbing away from brands with such a strength all their market share.In fact, Mercedes' electric car portfolio seems to be already richer than Tesla's.In other words, I have a hard time thinking Tesla will be able to grow significantly among premium brands without finding hard competition with well-established and highly-appreciated brands.On the other hand, Tesla has the advantage in that it doesn't have to cannibalize its old models, while all other OEMs do. However, while we are seeing the same thing happening with Netflix (NFLX) and its other streaming competitors, where the latter have to cannibalize their profitable cable business to build up their own streaming platform, in the case of automakers, the shift toward EVs is actually generating higher profitability.My take: The issue with Tesla's valuation and what already I own instead of itIt may not sound that original saying that what keeps me from investing in Tesla is its sky-high valuation. But let's recall that oftentimes the easiest and most renowned investing principles are forgotten when buzz and hype take place. For sure, Tesla is exciting and this is why we should double down and caution.On my side, I don't immediately run away from a stock because I see a high P/E or a high P/FCF multiple. For example, staying within the automotive industry, I own Ferrari (RACE). I would never compare Ferrari to Tesla. They are too different. But it is just an example to show how I am willing to pay a higher price when I think it is worth it.However, the big difference I see between Ferrari and Tesla is that Ferrari's future results are much more predictable than Tesla's. Still, a jewel like Ferrari trades a lower multiples compared to Tesla: Ferrari trades at a 39 fwd P/E vs. Tesla's 58, its fwd EV/EBITDA is 21.4 vs. Tesla's 31, its P/FCF is 37.3 vs. Tesla's 44.8. And this happens while Ferrari's profitability metrics are better than Tesla's: 24% EBIT margin vs. 16.8%; net income margin at 18.4% for Ferrari while for Tesla it is at 15.4%, return on equity of 40.6% for Ferrari and at 32.5% for Tesla.Coming down to a more realistic comparison, so that we don't risk to mix apples with oranges, let's look at Mercedes and compare it to Tesla (in bold is the better result between the two):Tesla is the winner, but Mercedes is not very far behind, especially as we move down the income statement. Now, let's see how the market prices Tesla's leading position compared to Mercedes:To me, the difference is too wide, especially if we consider Mercedes' high-quality strategy that is effectively managing to increase the company's profitability.This is why I actually own Mercedes as my favorite pick among premium luxury automakers.My third pick - even though, as I have tried to explain, I think we are once again at risk of comparing chalk and cheese - is Stellantis N.V. (STLA). If we look at automakers that produce affordable vehicles truly addressed to customers without deep pockets, then I think the Stellantis bull case almost speaks for itself as soon as we look at its financials and at its multiples. We are talking about a double-digit margin automaker, with incredibly skilled management, lots of tailwinds going for it (i.e., synergies), low geopolitical risk, etc. trading at unreasonable multiples of a 3 fwd P/E, a 1.2 fwd (EV/EBITDA) and a 2.3 P/FCF. I am not kidding. The company trades as if it were to go bankrupt tomorrow, while it is swimming in cash.Let me share my discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") model on Tesla, just to check if my thesis may be supported by future cash flow. Even projecting a 5 year free cash flow (\"FCF\") growth rate of 45% and then assuming a 9% perpetual growth rate (very generous assumptions), I still find TSLA stock should not trade over $150.Author, with data from SA and own future forecastAs I said, it is not my investing style to short a stock or make short-term trades. I am in for the long term. But I think Tesla, Inc.'s stock got a bit ahead of itself, especially given the fact that it has reached such volumes that will make it harder for the company to keep on growing at the fast pace investors are expecting. Many investors have for sure gained a lot of money with Tesla stock, while many other have lost a ton of it. As for me, I keep on studying Tesla, Inc. as an investor interested in the industry, but I don't see TSLA stock as appealing as other opportunities. This is why I rate Tesla, Inc. as a hold.This article is written by Luca Socci for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921691212,"gmtCreate":1671036229736,"gmtModify":1676538480244,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576550818064904","authorIdStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921691212","repostId":"1132223607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132223607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671009006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132223607?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-12-14 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132223607","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its benchmark interest rate steady instead of raising the federal funds by a half percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as expected at its meeting that ends Wednesday.</p><p>With the relatively benign report on the consumer price index in November released on Tuesday, the Fed now has “compelling evidence” that it has achieved its immediate goal of seeing a significant slowing in inflation.</p><p>The CPI was better than expected in November, with headline inflation rising just 0.1% (1.2% annualized) and core inflation up 0.2% (2.4% annualized).</p><p>The U.S. stock market SPX, DJIA, COMP on Tuesday initially greeted the CPI report as confirmation that the Fed could begin to let up, but by midday the realization hit that the Fed is going to keep hiking rates.</p><h2>Better than the media says</h2><p>The CPI report was actually better than it’s being portrayed by the media, which continue to focus irrationally on year-over-year changes in inflation rather than looking at what has happened since the Fed began raising interest rates nine months ago. For instance, what are we to make of. this incoherent headline in the New York Times: “U.S. Inflation Cools as Consumer Prices Rise 7.1 Percent”?</p><p>If we don’t want to miss the turning points, we have to shorten our horizon to something less than a year, but not so short that it’s all noise and no signal. Three months is about right.</p><p>In March 2022, when the Fed first raised rates, inflation was accelerating. From January to March, the CPI had risen at an 11.3% annual rate. That was an alarming inflation rate which called for action by the Fed.</p><p>But then the Fed raised interest rates at six straight meetings, going from near zero to near 4% and now inflation is decelerating. From September to November, inflation rose at a 3.7% annual rate.</p><p>That is significant progress in the most relevant measure of inflation.</p><h2>The wrong perspective</h2><p>The progress is much less apparent when the figures are reported on a year-over-year basis, as most media outlets do. From November 2021 to November 2022, inflation rose 7.1% — but that figure is meaningless to our understanding of what the Fed has accomplished because that time frame also includes five months of high inflation from before the Fed acted.</p><p>Because rate hikes take some time to have an impact on prices and on the economy, they didn’t really start to bite until July. In the five months since then, inflation has slowed to a 2.5% annualized rate, noticeable to anyone who’s looking. The unprecedented rise in interest rates is working to cool off price increases.</p><p>The progress is even greater when you take into account that almost all of the inflation we’ve suffered recently is coming from higher rents, which are now rising at a 10% annual rate in a lagged response to last year’s incredible 20%+ increase in home prices and tight rental markets.</p><h2>Rents still rising as home prices fall</h2><p>Home prices have now begun to fall in most regions of the U.S. Rents for new tenants have also begun to fall, but rents paid by continuing tenants have lagged behind and could take another year or longer to catch up, according to research by economists at Goldman Sachs. That’s because rents on existing leases tend to reset on an annual basis.</p><p>Rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs.</p><p>With more than 900,000 multifamily housing units now under construction, the supply constraints will soon begin to ease, reducing pressure on rents, when those units hit the market, likely in the next year or so.</p><p>Rents have an outsized influence on the CPI, because rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs. Yes, there’s some correlation most of the time, but not always.</p><p>Using rents to measure homeowners’ costs might be an acceptable methodology in normal times, but not now. Based on the increase in rents, the CPI showed that shelter costs for homeowners rose at a 8% annual rate in November. No one believes that’s true. Most homeowners have a fixed-rate mortgage, so principal and interest payments haven’t gone up.</p><h2>The right perspective</h2><p>The best thing to do in this situation is to recognize that we need to exclude shelter costs (which accounts for a third of the CPI) if we want to see where underlying inflation is heading.</p><p>“Substantial disagreement about the correct way to measure shelter inflation argues for looking at inflation measures that put less weight on shelter inflation, not more, when the decision is of greater consequence,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and David Mericle in a note published in October.</p><p>The CPI excluding shelter fell 0.2% in November and has risen at just a 1.3% annual rate over the past three months.</p><p>Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged that a sudden drop in home prices won’t show up in the headline CPI for months, but he’s not acting like he quite believes it. If he did, he’d urge his colleagues at the Fed to pause now and let the full impact of 375 basis points of tightening work on the economy.</p><p>We know, however, that the Fed won’t pause. The Fed lost too much credibility last year when it missed the rapid increase in inflation as the economy emerged from its pandemic lockdown, and now the Fed is scrambling to restore the public’s trust as an inflation fighter.</p><p>Unfortunately, that makes a recession nearly inevitable, because the Fed is going to do what it always does: Raise rates too far and push the economy into a job-killing recession.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Should Pause Its Rate Hikes Now That Inflation Has Slowed Significantly. But It Won’t\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-14 17:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-inflation-rate-in-november-was-not-7-1-as-you-were-told-it-was-3-7-11670968283?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its benchmark interest rate steady instead of raising the federal funds by a half percentage point to a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-inflation-rate-in-november-was-not-7-1-as-you-were-told-it-was-3-7-11670968283?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-inflation-rate-in-november-was-not-7-1-as-you-were-told-it-was-3-7-11670968283?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132223607","content_text":"The Federal Reserve should declare an immediate cease fire in its war against inflation and hold its benchmark interest rate steady instead of raising the federal funds by a half percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as expected at its meeting that ends Wednesday.With the relatively benign report on the consumer price index in November released on Tuesday, the Fed now has “compelling evidence” that it has achieved its immediate goal of seeing a significant slowing in inflation.The CPI was better than expected in November, with headline inflation rising just 0.1% (1.2% annualized) and core inflation up 0.2% (2.4% annualized).The U.S. stock market SPX, DJIA, COMP on Tuesday initially greeted the CPI report as confirmation that the Fed could begin to let up, but by midday the realization hit that the Fed is going to keep hiking rates.Better than the media saysThe CPI report was actually better than it’s being portrayed by the media, which continue to focus irrationally on year-over-year changes in inflation rather than looking at what has happened since the Fed began raising interest rates nine months ago. For instance, what are we to make of. this incoherent headline in the New York Times: “U.S. Inflation Cools as Consumer Prices Rise 7.1 Percent”?If we don’t want to miss the turning points, we have to shorten our horizon to something less than a year, but not so short that it’s all noise and no signal. Three months is about right.In March 2022, when the Fed first raised rates, inflation was accelerating. From January to March, the CPI had risen at an 11.3% annual rate. That was an alarming inflation rate which called for action by the Fed.But then the Fed raised interest rates at six straight meetings, going from near zero to near 4% and now inflation is decelerating. From September to November, inflation rose at a 3.7% annual rate.That is significant progress in the most relevant measure of inflation.The wrong perspectiveThe progress is much less apparent when the figures are reported on a year-over-year basis, as most media outlets do. From November 2021 to November 2022, inflation rose 7.1% — but that figure is meaningless to our understanding of what the Fed has accomplished because that time frame also includes five months of high inflation from before the Fed acted.Because rate hikes take some time to have an impact on prices and on the economy, they didn’t really start to bite until July. In the five months since then, inflation has slowed to a 2.5% annualized rate, noticeable to anyone who’s looking. The unprecedented rise in interest rates is working to cool off price increases.The progress is even greater when you take into account that almost all of the inflation we’ve suffered recently is coming from higher rents, which are now rising at a 10% annual rate in a lagged response to last year’s incredible 20%+ increase in home prices and tight rental markets.Rents still rising as home prices fallHome prices have now begun to fall in most regions of the U.S. Rents for new tenants have also begun to fall, but rents paid by continuing tenants have lagged behind and could take another year or longer to catch up, according to research by economists at Goldman Sachs. That’s because rents on existing leases tend to reset on an annual basis.Rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs.With more than 900,000 multifamily housing units now under construction, the supply constraints will soon begin to ease, reducing pressure on rents, when those units hit the market, likely in the next year or so.Rents have an outsized influence on the CPI, because rents are used to compute the costs not only of renters but of homeowners as well. It’s as if we measured champagne prices by looking at how much beer costs. Yes, there’s some correlation most of the time, but not always.Using rents to measure homeowners’ costs might be an acceptable methodology in normal times, but not now. Based on the increase in rents, the CPI showed that shelter costs for homeowners rose at a 8% annual rate in November. No one believes that’s true. Most homeowners have a fixed-rate mortgage, so principal and interest payments haven’t gone up.The right perspectiveThe best thing to do in this situation is to recognize that we need to exclude shelter costs (which accounts for a third of the CPI) if we want to see where underlying inflation is heading.“Substantial disagreement about the correct way to measure shelter inflation argues for looking at inflation measures that put less weight on shelter inflation, not more, when the decision is of greater consequence,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and David Mericle in a note published in October.The CPI excluding shelter fell 0.2% in November and has risen at just a 1.3% annual rate over the past three months.Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged that a sudden drop in home prices won’t show up in the headline CPI for months, but he’s not acting like he quite believes it. If he did, he’d urge his colleagues at the Fed to pause now and let the full impact of 375 basis points of tightening work on the economy.We know, however, that the Fed won’t pause. The Fed lost too much credibility last year when it missed the rapid increase in inflation as the economy emerged from its pandemic lockdown, and now the Fed is scrambling to restore the public’s trust as an inflation fighter.Unfortunately, that makes a recession nearly inevitable, because the Fed is going to do what it always does: Raise rates too far and push the economy into a job-killing recession.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923671014,"gmtCreate":1670856946238,"gmtModify":1676538447067,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576550818064904","authorIdStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings 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Thanks","listText":"Like and comment. Thanks","text":"Like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103152569","repostId":"1153490597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579431961273157","authorId":"3579431961273157","name":"Windtalker78","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4dbe67aa5b95a4af3a62364294300b1c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579431961273157","idStr":"3579431961273157"},"content":"same here. thanks.","text":"same here. thanks.","html":"same here. thanks."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":234298361405448,"gmtCreate":1698247561324,"gmtModify":1698247566110,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope for the best for stability in the market&nbsp;","listText":"Hope for the best for stability in the market&nbsp;","text":"Hope for the best for stability in the market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234298361405448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117210213,"gmtCreate":1623142718132,"gmtModify":1704196950776,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like. 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Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117210213","repostId":"1130541253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581988841626176","authorId":"3581988841626176","name":"JKJKJK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/882030abc3e0ffb1122b6a566ab01832","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581988841626176","idStr":"3581988841626176"},"content":"Pls reply to this comment.","text":"Pls reply to this comment.","html":"Pls reply to this comment."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960760894,"gmtCreate":1668262406218,"gmtModify":1676538035146,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960760894","repostId":"1137748454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910817630,"gmtCreate":1663594624620,"gmtModify":1676537297675,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910817630","repostId":"2267651314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2267651314","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663581480,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267651314?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-19 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect From the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267651314","media":"NerdWallet","summary":"The Fed's next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Fed&#39;s next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for markets and investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d599bbb5d3059e0a59aa316765eaad6f\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve’s job hasn’t been easy amid this year’s economic volatility.</p><p>The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge, rose 8.3% year over year in August — well over the Fed’s 2% target. The stock market hasn’t been well-behaved either: The S&amp;P 500 index is down by more than 10% so far this year.</p><p>The Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet Sept. 20-21, when it will decide whether to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year — and by how much.</p><p>Here’s what economists and a financial planner have to say about what’s going into the decision, how the stock market might react, and what it means for long-term investors.</p><h2>Why is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates?</h2><p>In short, the Fed is considering raising interest rates again to reduce inflation. But it’s trying to do so in a way that doesn’t burden consumers and businesses.</p><p>According to Terrance Grieb, a professor of finance at the University of Idaho, the Federal Reserve’s operations follow a dual mandate. Its two responsibilities are “to provide price stability within the economy, and also to provide a healthy job market.”</p><p>“What they’re trying to do is set interest rates — which are a key component of monetary policy — in order to balance those two things against each other,” he says.</p><p>The federal funds rate, which is guided by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money from each other.</p><p>Banks earn profits by borrowing money at a low interest rate and then lending it out to customers at a higher rate. Changes to the federal funds rate trickle down through the banking system, influencing interest rates on a variety of things, including mortgages and bonds.</p><p>Higher interest rates decrease spending by making it more expensive to borrow money. That decreases demand for goods and services throughout the economy, then slows down the price increases that we call inflation.</p><p>But when the Fed raises interest rates, it also runs the risk of hurting the economy — and the stock market in particular — by slowing down spending too much.</p><p>“Corporations borrow a lot of money every day to run their businesses, and when it costs them more money to borrow, it means their profits go down. And if their profits go down, then their stock is not as attractive,” says Delia Fernandez, a Los Alamitos, California-based certified financial planner with Fernandez Financial Advisory.</p><h2>What are markets expecting from the next meeting?</h2><p>“The markets are clearly expecting a 0.75% increase in [the Fed’s] target for the federal funds rate,” says Grieb. He explains that stock market valuations can act as a predictor of future rates and that the current level of the S&amp;P 500 and similar indexes points toward a 0.75% increase.</p><p>“If we saw a 1% rise or 1.25%, I think the markets would react very badly to that. We would see stock prices decrease. And vice versa — if it were only 0.5%, the markets would react very strongly,” he says.</p><p>Grieb says that any decision other than a 0.75% rate increase would be a surprise — but that a higher increase might be slightly less of a shock than a lower one.</p><p>“Chairman [Jerome] Powell has been pretty clear that they feel the need to be aggressive about this,” Grieb says of the Federal Reserve chair.</p><p>Keith Jakob, a professor of finance at the University of Montana, says that if rates go up by the expected 0.75%, the market reaction may be driven by what the Fed says about expectations for the next FOMC meeting in early November.</p><p>If the Fed hints that more increases are ahead, that could push markets down. But if it doesn&#39;t, markets could rise.</p><p>“If they say, ‘Yeah, we’re doing 0.75% but we think that’s enough,’ that maybe would lead to the market saying, ‘OK, let’s have a relief rally because we think they’re finished raising rates,’” Jakob says.</p><h2>How do the August inflation numbers affect the decision?</h2><p>On Sept. 13, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation numbers for the month of August that were higher than economists’ expectations. In response, the S&amp;P 500 and other major stock indexes fell by several percentage points.</p><p>“There was a grain of hope in the markets that inflation was going to start cooling more quickly,” Grieb says. That might have given the Fed the opportunity to be more gentle with its interest rate increases.</p><p>But Grieb says that the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers show that “the Fed will have to stick to its guns,” with an aggressive course of interest rate increases in the near future — hence the negative stock market reaction.</p><p>“The markets are realizing that the aggressive path the Fed has laid out — they don’t have much room to adjust that,” he says.</p><h2>Should long-term investors pay attention to Fed interest rate policy?</h2><p>Fernandez says no.</p><p>“They should ignore the news, they should ignore the ups and downs, they should know that they’re in it for the long term,” she says.</p><p>Ideally, Fernandez says, investors should be making small, but frequent contributions to their investment accounts over time (for example, a set amount from each paycheck).</p><p>This approach, which is called dollar-cost averaging, can help them buy into investments at lower prices during periods of turmoil.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1663581368258","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect From the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect From the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 17:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-expect-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision><strong>NerdWallet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed's next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for markets and investors.The Federal Reserve’s job hasn’t been easy amid this year’s economic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-expect-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-expect-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267651314","content_text":"The Fed's next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for markets and investors.The Federal Reserve’s job hasn’t been easy amid this year’s economic volatility.The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge, rose 8.3% year over year in August — well over the Fed’s 2% target. The stock market hasn’t been well-behaved either: The S&P 500 index is down by more than 10% so far this year.The Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet Sept. 20-21, when it will decide whether to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year — and by how much.Here’s what economists and a financial planner have to say about what’s going into the decision, how the stock market might react, and what it means for long-term investors.Why is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates?In short, the Fed is considering raising interest rates again to reduce inflation. But it’s trying to do so in a way that doesn’t burden consumers and businesses.According to Terrance Grieb, a professor of finance at the University of Idaho, the Federal Reserve’s operations follow a dual mandate. Its two responsibilities are “to provide price stability within the economy, and also to provide a healthy job market.”“What they’re trying to do is set interest rates — which are a key component of monetary policy — in order to balance those two things against each other,” he says.The federal funds rate, which is guided by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money from each other.Banks earn profits by borrowing money at a low interest rate and then lending it out to customers at a higher rate. Changes to the federal funds rate trickle down through the banking system, influencing interest rates on a variety of things, including mortgages and bonds.Higher interest rates decrease spending by making it more expensive to borrow money. That decreases demand for goods and services throughout the economy, then slows down the price increases that we call inflation.But when the Fed raises interest rates, it also runs the risk of hurting the economy — and the stock market in particular — by slowing down spending too much.“Corporations borrow a lot of money every day to run their businesses, and when it costs them more money to borrow, it means their profits go down. And if their profits go down, then their stock is not as attractive,” says Delia Fernandez, a Los Alamitos, California-based certified financial planner with Fernandez Financial Advisory.What are markets expecting from the next meeting?“The markets are clearly expecting a 0.75% increase in [the Fed’s] target for the federal funds rate,” says Grieb. He explains that stock market valuations can act as a predictor of future rates and that the current level of the S&P 500 and similar indexes points toward a 0.75% increase.“If we saw a 1% rise or 1.25%, I think the markets would react very badly to that. We would see stock prices decrease. And vice versa — if it were only 0.5%, the markets would react very strongly,” he says.Grieb says that any decision other than a 0.75% rate increase would be a surprise — but that a higher increase might be slightly less of a shock than a lower one.“Chairman [Jerome] Powell has been pretty clear that they feel the need to be aggressive about this,” Grieb says of the Federal Reserve chair.Keith Jakob, a professor of finance at the University of Montana, says that if rates go up by the expected 0.75%, the market reaction may be driven by what the Fed says about expectations for the next FOMC meeting in early November.If the Fed hints that more increases are ahead, that could push markets down. But if it doesn't, markets could rise.“If they say, ‘Yeah, we’re doing 0.75% but we think that’s enough,’ that maybe would lead to the market saying, ‘OK, let’s have a relief rally because we think they’re finished raising rates,’” Jakob says.How do the August inflation numbers affect the decision?On Sept. 13, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation numbers for the month of August that were higher than economists’ expectations. In response, the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes fell by several percentage points.“There was a grain of hope in the markets that inflation was going to start cooling more quickly,” Grieb says. That might have given the Fed the opportunity to be more gentle with its interest rate increases.But Grieb says that the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers show that “the Fed will have to stick to its guns,” with an aggressive course of interest rate increases in the near future — hence the negative stock market reaction.“The markets are realizing that the aggressive path the Fed has laid out — they don’t have much room to adjust that,” he says.Should long-term investors pay attention to Fed interest rate policy?Fernandez says no.“They should ignore the news, they should ignore the ups and downs, they should know that they’re in it for the long term,” she says.Ideally, Fernandez says, investors should be making small, but frequent contributions to their investment accounts over time (for example, a set amount from each paycheck).This approach, which is called dollar-cost averaging, can help them buy into investments at lower prices during periods of turmoil.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010122952,"gmtCreate":1648298437481,"gmtModify":1676534326171,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like many thanks","listText":"like many thanks","text":"like many thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010122952","repostId":"1196027616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196027616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648255536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196027616?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-03-26 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196027616","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.</p><p>They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.</p><p>“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.</p><p>“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”</p><p>An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.</p><p>Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.</p><p>Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know</p><p>But that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.</p><p>“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.</p><p>“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”</p><h2>Watch 10-year, 3-month</h2><p>Instead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe28818cd1806ee5afd5519332cf483\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management</span></p><p>“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.</p><p>“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”</p><p>Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.</p><p>By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”</p><p>On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.</p><p>“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.</p><p>A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.</p><p>“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196027616","content_text":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to knowBut that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”Watch 10-year, 3-monthInstead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002483017,"gmtCreate":1642068736100,"gmtModify":1676533677718,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>piece of advice : stay away from china concept stocks if possible. i’m down 58% for buying tiger and futu stocks","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>piece of advice : stay away from china concept stocks if possible. i’m down 58% for buying tiger and futu stocks","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$piece of advice : stay away from china concept stocks if possible. i’m down 58% for buying tiger and futu stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002483017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576469650822596","authorId":"3576469650822596","name":"FattyLau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db5b4ba7e4ff3b7d1744dc8146f1210","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576469650822596","idStr":"3576469650822596"},"content":"Small cap stocks all down from the peak. Some even down up to 50%. Market bearish.","text":"Small cap stocks all down from the peak. Some even down up to 50%. Market bearish.","html":"Small cap stocks all down from the peak. Some even down up to 50%. Market bearish."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987755972,"gmtCreate":1668004255196,"gmtModify":1676537997355,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987755972","repostId":"1157692624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157692624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668008277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157692624?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-11-09 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157692624","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>TSLA is trading at 12-month lows.</li><li>Rising interest rates, Q3&#39;s revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.</li><li>The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.</li><li>The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.</li><li>The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.</li></ul><p>Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed96ee922a9178151466be6bb913196e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.</p><p>Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.</p><p>The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddbc4100fa6280bf6fcc0ef8b86d03a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Trailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.</p><p>Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.</p><p>I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&amp;P 500 (not including dividends).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c08822d1f3055ab12bf6e9e8a7ea386\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Previous analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&amp;P 500 above.</p><p>For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.</p><p>With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.</p><p><b>Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>ETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c8d0e04e8918e25b7385e2bad7c26\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"855\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ETrade</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797d6141699490e50d24fb2784e632e1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.</p><p>In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.</p><p><b>Market-Implied Outlook for TSLA</b></p><p>I have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.</p><p>The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f689bc8494e22307e8401f8fcc1ac2\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.</p><p>To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67eb2da8e00a45afb6a60092265c1c8c\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.</p><p>Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f17528781a49f411c10295d132d77cf\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Geoff Considine</p><p>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.</p><p>The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>Tesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Even At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEven At The 12-Month Low, Tesla Is Not A Compelling Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555040-tesla-stock-not-compelling-buy-even-at-12-month-low","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157692624","content_text":"SummaryTSLA is trading at 12-month lows.Rising interest rates, Q3's revenue miss, and slowing sales in China are immediate concerns.The Wall Street consensus rating is a buy, with a consensus 12-month price target that is about 50% above the current share price.The very high dispersion in the individual analyst price targets reduces confidence in the meaningfulness of the consensus.The market-implied outlook (calculated from options prices) is slightly bullish through the end of 2022, but bearish to mid-2023.Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have fallen by 15% from the closing price on October 31st and are down 51.6% from the 12-month high closing price of $399.93 on January 3rd. The shares are currently trading at 12-month lows. The drop in the share price since the end of October is largely attributable to declining vehicle sales in China for October, with the company cutting the prices of the Model 3 and Model Y by 9% to maintain demand. The market response to the China news was probably exacerbated by growing concerns after TSLA’s revenue miss for Q3(reported on October 19th).Seeking Alpha12-Month price history and basic statistics for TSLA above.Tesla’s valuation depends on continued rapid growth in revenues and earnings. This fact makes the share value quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The theoretical value of a stock is the net present value of future earnings. The further into the future that these earnings are expected, the larger the compounded impact of increasing the discount rate, which depends on current interest rates. Rising interest rates are one of the factors driving TSLA down.The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that TSLA can maintain recent years’ incredibly rapid growth rates. The consensus for the rate of EPS growth over the next 3 to 5 years is 31.6% per year. If the company fails to deliver earnings in line with this outlook, the share valuation is likely to decline.ETradeTrailing (3 years) and estimated future quarterly EPS for TSLA. Green (red) values are amounts by which EPS beat (missed) the consensus expected EPS above.Tesla has generated growth rates that amply demonstrate the company’s exceptionalism. TSLA’s YoY revenue growth rate is59.8%, as compared to 4.5% for Toyota (TM), 6.6% for Mercedes-Benz Group (OTCPK: MBGAF), 12.4% for General Motors (GM), and 12.7% for Ford (F). TSLA also has gross profit margins that are higher than those of these competing firms. Given the massive difference in scale of production, TSLA’s higher profit margins are impressive. The question for investors is whether the current share valuation makes sense, given that this valuation is sensitive to interest rates and depends on maintaining heroic growth rates.I last wrote about TSLA on May 25, 2022, about 5 ½ months ago, and I maintained a sell rating on the shares. At that time, the Wall Street consensus rating on TSLA was a buy and the consensus 12-month price target was almost 50% above the share price. One red flag from the analyst outlooks was the extremely high dispersion among the individual price targets. Research has shown that the consensus price target is a meaningful predictor only when the spread in individual price targets is quite low. In fact, a consensus price target that implies a high return is actually a bearish indicator when the spread in the individual price targets is high. The valuation, then as now, was a concern and required incredible growth rates to be justified. I also noted that rising interest rates put downward pressure on the shares. I also looked at the market-implied outlook, a probabilistic price forecast that represents the consensus view from the options market. The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 was substantially bearish. In the 5 ½ months since this post, TSLA has returned -13.3% vs. -4.26% for the S&P 500 (not including dividends).Seeking AlphaPrevious analysis of TSLA and subsequent performance vs. the S&P 500 above.For readers who are unfamiliar with the market-implied outlook, a brief explanation is needed. The price of an option on a stock is largely determined by the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the stock price will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the option strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all with the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic price forecast that reconciles the options prices. This is the market-implied outlook. For a deeper explanation and background, I recommend this monograph published by the CFA Institute.With TSLA trading at 12-month lows, I have calculated updated market-implied outlooks and I have compared these with the Wall Street consensus outlook in revisiting my rating.Wall Street Consensus Outlook for TSLAETrade calculates the Wall Street consensus outlook for TSLA using price targets and ratings from 29 ranked analysts who have published their views over the past 3 months. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price targets is 57.7% above the current share price. As in my post from May, there is an enormous spread among the individual price targets. As a rule of thumb, I discount the consensus price target when the ratio of the highest to lowest price target is greater than 2. In this case, the ratio is 10.4 ($760 / $73).ETradeWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 35 analysts who have published ratings and price targets within the last 90 days. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target is 47.2% above the current share price. I don’t put much weight on this number, however, because of the very large spread among the individual price targets.Seeking AlphaWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA above.In the current results, as in my previous posts on TSLA in May of 2022 and in April of 2021, the spread among the individual analyst price targets is extremely high. This, in turn, suggests that the consensus outlook is unlikely to have predictive value. The consensus price target that is about 50% above the current share price, along with the large spread in individual price targets, may actually be a bearish indicator.Market-Implied Outlook for TSLAI have calculated the market-implied outlook for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023 and for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023, using the prices of call and put options that expire on these dates. I selected these two expiration dates to provide a view through the end of 2022 and to the middle of 2023. In addition, options with expiration dates in January and June tend to be highly traded, increasing the confidence in the representativeness of the market-implied outlook.The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023, above.The market-implied outlook to mid-January of 2023 is very symmetric, with probabilities of positive returns that are very close to those for negative returns of the same magnitude. The expected volatility calculated from this outlook is 62% (annualized). For comparison, ETrade calculates a 59% implied volatility for the January options.To make it easier to compare the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 2.4-month period from now until January 20, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.This view shows just how closely the probabilities of positive and negative returns match up, across the entire range of possible outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are basically on top of one another). These results indicate a neutral outlook for the next 2.4 months.Theory indicates that the market-implied outlook is expected to have a negative bias because investors, in aggregate, are risk averse and thus tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. There is no way to measure the magnitude of this bias, or whether it is even present, however. The expectation of a negative bias shifts what would otherwise look like a neutral outlook to a slightly bullish view.The market-implied outlook for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023 has probabilities of negative returns that are consistently higher than those for positive returns, across a wide range of possible outcomes (the dashed red line is consistently above the solid blue line over the left ⅔ of the chart below). The maximum probability corresponds to a price return of -21%. Even with consideration of a potential negative bias, I interpret this outlook as bearish. The expected volatility calculated from this distribution is 63% (annualized).Geoff ConsidineMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the 7.2-month period from now until June 16, 2023. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis above.The market-implied outlook for TSLA is very slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023, but bearish from now until mid-June of 2023. This suggests that TSLA may have gotten a bit oversold in the current sell-off, so a bounce in the next couple of months would not be a surprise. Over the longer-term, however, the outlook is somewhat bearish. In my analysis in late May, the 7.9-month outlook to January 20, 2023 was much more bearish than the current 7.2-month outlook to June of 2023. The expected volatility calculated in late May, 74%, was notably higher than the current estimation for expected volatility. The current outlook to the middle of 2023 is bearish, with high volatility, but the probability of large declines in the share price is lower than it was in late May.SummaryTesla has generated exceptional revenue growth in recent years, justifying a substantial premium on the share price as compared to other auto manufacturers and many successful tech companies, as well. That said, the value of a share of TSLA should be quite sensitive to prevailing interest rates as well as any shortfalls in the growth trajectory. With substantial gains in interest rates in 2022, along with concerns about slowing sales growth in China and Q3’s revenue miss, how does one evaluate TSLA? The Wall Street consensus outlook is of limited value because there is such a high level of disagreement between the analysts who follow the company. The consensus rating is a buy and the consensus 12-month price target implies a gain of around 50% from current levels, but I have little confidence in the usefulness of these metrics. If anything, the high consensus price target with high dispersion in the individual price targets is a somewhat bearish indicator. The market-implied outlook for TSLA is slightly bullish to mid-January of 2023 but moderately bearish to the middle of 2023. I am maintaining my sell rating on TSLA, although there is decent potential for some price recovery through the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169404666,"gmtCreate":1623846184055,"gmtModify":1703821181867,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Like and comment. Thanks","text":"Like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169404666","repostId":"1185341836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196223094,"gmtCreate":1621059634818,"gmtModify":1704352597585,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Like and comment. Thanks","text":"Like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196223094","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575250490180762","authorId":"3575250490180762","name":"Junhao69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ccfbf325996f9650dbcf6cb4644b476","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575250490180762","idStr":"3575250490180762"},"content":"Pls reply to comment. Thanks","text":"Pls reply to comment. Thanks","html":"Pls reply to comment. Thanks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376760876,"gmtCreate":1619149499595,"gmtModify":1704720414463,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like. Thanks","listText":"Comment and like. Thanks","text":"Comment and like. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376760876","repostId":"1141178573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574733449308397","authorId":"3574733449308397","name":"XuanCheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b6cec94c3af2e6cd0e5a930ba6b95b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574733449308397","idStr":"3574733449308397"},"content":"comment and like liao","text":"comment and like liao","html":"comment and like liao"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980536865,"gmtCreate":1665761646057,"gmtModify":1676537661558,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980536865","repostId":"1140902779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140902779","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665761013,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140902779?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-10-14 23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation at 8.2%: 2 Strong Buy Dividend Stocks to Protect Your Money","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140902779","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Last month, the Federal Reserve implemented its fifth straight interest rate hike this year, and its third consecutive hike at 75 basis points, bringing its key funds rate up to the 3% to 3.25% range.","content":"<div>\n<p>Last month, the Federal Reserve implemented its fifth straight interest rate hike this year, and its third consecutive hike at 75 basis points, bringing its key funds rate up to the 3% to 3.25% range....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/inflation-at-8-2-2-strong-buy-dividend-stocks-to-protect-your-money\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation at 8.2%: 2 Strong Buy Dividend Stocks to Protect Your Money</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation at 8.2%: 2 Strong Buy Dividend Stocks to Protect Your Money\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-14 23:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/inflation-at-8-2-2-strong-buy-dividend-stocks-to-protect-your-money><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last month, the Federal Reserve implemented its fifth straight interest rate hike this year, and its third consecutive hike at 75 basis points, bringing its key funds rate up to the 3% to 3.25% range....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/inflation-at-8-2-2-strong-buy-dividend-stocks-to-protect-your-money\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PINE":"Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.","CTO":"CTO Realty Growth, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/inflation-at-8-2-2-strong-buy-dividend-stocks-to-protect-your-money","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140902779","content_text":"Last month, the Federal Reserve implemented its fifth straight interest rate hike this year, and its third consecutive hike at 75 basis points, bringing its key funds rate up to the 3% to 3.25% range. The move showed that the central bank is deadly serious about taking on the stubbornly high inflation that has been plaguing the economy since the middle of 2021.The Fed’s turn toward an aggressive anti-inflationary policy may not be hard enough, however, as the September data, released this morning, showed the headline consumer price index (CPI) at an annualized rate of 8.2%, slightly lower than August’s 8.3%, but slightly higher than the 8.1% which had been forecast. There’s no good news here, and we should expect the Fed to take further aggressive rate hiking action at the next FOMC meeting on November 1 and 2.After the data release, the 2-year Treasury bond yield jumped by 16 basis points and hit 4.45%, and the 10-year note once again moved above 4%. These moves portend a shift by investors from stocks toward bonds, to lock in higher yields.For investors still intent on sticking with stocks, the logical move is find a defensive play that will provide some protection against inflation. Dividend stocks, especially the high-yield payers, are the ‘standard’ move in the defensive playbook, and we’ve used the TipRanks data to look up two that offer yields high enough to give some insulation against inflation. And even better, they both have a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus rating from the wider analyst community. Let’s take a closer look.Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE)The first high-yield div payer we’ll look at is Alpine Income Property Trust, a commercial net lease REIT with a focus on retail properties. Alpine’s portfolio is composed of open-air strip malls and stand-alone retail locations, spread across 35 states. The company is headquartered in Florida, where it has 4 properties; the state with the largest number of Alpine properties is Texas, with 25, while Ohio and New York tie for second place, each with 12 properties.Alpine has a total of 143 properties in its portfolio, a combined 3.3 million square feet of leasable space. The company boasts, justifiably, that it has a 100% occupancy rate. Revenues and earnings have been strong over the past two years, with consistent sequential gains at the top line.Alpine saw revenues of $11.3 million in 2Q22, the last quarter reported. Earnings spiked in that quarter, to $14.3 million, after coming in at just $304K one year earlier. Alpine had a diluted EPS of $1.05 in 2Q22. Of particular interest to dividend investors, Alpine reported an adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $0.47 for 2Q, a 20% increase year-over-year, and more than enough to fully cover the regular stock dividend.That dividend deserved a closer look. The most recent declaration, made in August, was for 27.5 cents per common share, a modest bump of 1.9% from the previous quarter – but the sixth dividend increase in the past three years. Alpine’s current common share dividend annualizes to $1.10 and gives a yield of 7%, more than triple the average dividend yield in the broader markets, and high enough to be useful as insulation against current inflation.In the eyes of Raymond James analyst RJ Milligan, who holds a 5-star ranking from TipRanks, all of this adds up to a company in a very solid position.“Investors continue to build positions in more defensive sectors (including net-lease) given concerns about a coming recession, which has helped drive the net lease sector’s YTD outperformance despite spiking rates and high inflation. We expect PINE will continue to benefit from this rotation given its high quality portfolio, discounted valuation, and well-covered dividend,” Milligan opined.Following from this upbeat stance, Milligan rates PINE shares an Outperform (i.e. Buy), and his price target of $23 implies a one-year upside potential of 44%.While this commercial REIT has only picked up 5 recent analyst reviews, those were all positive, testifying to PINE’s underlying strength and attractive qualities – and giving the stock a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating. The shares are selling for $15.87 and their average price target of $21.25 indicates a potential gain of 33% in the next 12 months.CTO Realty Growth (CTO)Let’s stick with REITs, a sector known for its dividend champs. CTO Realty Growth is another commercial REIT with income-generating shopping mall and retail investments in 9 states. CTO has 6 properties in its home state of Florida, and 3 each in Georgia and Texas. The bulk of CTO’s assets are in the coastal Southeast or the Southwest, but the company does have a 15% ownership interest in Alpine, the stock discussed above.In recent weeks, CTO has announced two important developments that have enhanced the company’s liquidity. First was the September 21 notice that the firm had expanded its credit facility to $565 million, and that was followed on September 26 by the announcement that the company had sold off three properties in Jacksonville, Florida for a total of $34.9 million.Earlier in the summer, CTO reported its results for 2Q22, with fund from operations (FFO) coming in at $1.41 per share for the quarter, up 60% year-over-year, and adjusted FFO growing 38% to reach $1.48 per common share. These results were more than enough to support the dividend, which was declared for Q3 on August 22 and paid out on September 30. The Q3 dividend was raised by a modest 1.8% and paid out at 38 cents per common share. The dividend’s annualized rate of $1.52 gives a yield of 8.6%, which is higher than current inflation numbers and ensures a real rate of return for investors.AnalystRobert Stevenson, watching this stock for investment firm Janney Montgomery, is unabashedly bullish on CTO. He says of the company, “Our continued positive view on the stock is based on the company’s assets, high dividend yield, and ability to continue to grow earnings and dividends for shareholders… CTO is one of our favorite yield names within our REIT coverage universe.”Factoring in a discounted valuation and attractive growth potential, Stevenson rates CTO a Buy, along with a price target of $25. If his price target is achieved, investors could realize a potential total return of ~44%There are 4 recent analyst reviews on file for CTO and they are unanimously positive, to give the stock its Strong Buy analyst consensus rating. The shares are priced at $17.54 and their $25 average target matches Stevenson’s 42% upside forecast.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190030793,"gmtCreate":1620549700012,"gmtModify":1704344888448,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190030793","repostId":"1106882084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938503617,"gmtCreate":1662624770239,"gmtModify":1676537103900,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938503617","repostId":"1154244543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154244543","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662650625,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154244543?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-08 23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Delivering For Everyone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154244543","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNewest set of iPhones unveiled on Wednesday.Apple didn't raise prices as some were expecting.Finding a balance is the best way to go.On Wednesday, technology giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) held its ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Newest set of iPhones unveiled on Wednesday.</li><li>Apple didn&#39;t raise prices as some were expecting.</li><li>Finding a balance is the best way to go.</li></ul><p>On Wednesday, technology giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) held its much anticipated September product unveiling event. This year, expectations had been a little muted as consumers grapple with high inflation, so device pricing was going to be the key theme. In the end, Apple delivered with something for everyone, which could set up the company nicely for the holiday season.</p><p>Let me start with some of the non-core products. Apple Watch Series 8 features a new temperature sensor along with some other tracking features, plus car crash detection. The company unveiled a new entry level SE version that goes for $249, which has a 30% larger face and is 20% faster. Consumers are also being treated to a new Ultra version that starts at $799, which is larger and has better battery life, while being geared towards the extreme fitness crowd. A second generation of the AirPods Pro was also unveiled, featuring a new chip and much improved audio.</p><p>Of course, the star of the show was going to be the new series of iPhones. As expected, the new iPhone 14 and 14 Plus are 6.1 and 6.7 inches, respectively, and contain last year&#39;s A15 Bionic chip. These phones, along with the Watch, have a new service using Globalstar (GSAT) satellites for emergency use. The Plus model has the best battery life ever in an iPhone according to the company, while these two entry level devices feature a much improved camera system. The 14 will be available on September 16th, which gives it more than a week of sales in the current fiscal Q4 period, while the 14 Plus isn&#39;t available until October 7th.</p><p>As for the Pro versions, they have a pill-like space at the top of the screen, known as the Dynamic Island, that changes based on the type of notification or action that is occurring, such as charging a phone or playing music. These models have an always-on display, along with a brighter screen and 48 megapixel camera sensor, and feature the newest chipset, the A16 Bionic. Perhaps the biggest news for the iPhone on Wednesday was pricing, which can be seen in the graphic below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e821dde238518c28185b25f2325eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yearly iPhone Lineup(Apple Store)</p><p>There were a handful of reports in recent weeks and months that Apple may increase prices this year, primarily due to inflation. Lately, these rumors seemed to focus more on the Pro versions only, but it turns out we didn&#39;t get any true price increases. Apple is swapping the mini for the Plus, which is a positive for average selling prices, along with the 12 this year being more expensive than the 11 was last year. For those looking for some value, the base 13 mini and regular 13 have double the storage than their year earlier counterparts did last year at the same price.</p><p>The key for Apple here in my opinion is that it is improving its effort to provide something for everyone. Look at what the company did with the Watch. It has its primary version of the device, a cheaper &#34;SE&#34; model, and now a premium Ultra model. This year, Apple has separated the Pro versions of the iPhone a bit more from their entry level counterparts, given the higher end models get the newest chipsets, yet they didn&#39;t get an added price boost. As some of the early analyst comments suggest, Apple delivered modest upgrades this year, so it didn&#39;t take advantage of the consumer by raising prices in a tough inflation environment.</p><p>While it may not be as important as it used to be, the iPhone is still the dominant product line for Apple. In the first nine months of the current fiscal year, which ends later this month, sales of the smartphone represented more than 54.2% of the company&#39;s revenues. That&#39;s actually up a little over the prior year&#39;s first three quarters, as supply chain issues have pressured sales of other devices. As the graphic below shows, the iPhone has still shown some decent revenue growth over the longer term. The 2022 number below with an asterisk is my current estimate, and the key here is that the iPhone could be about to report its first $200 billion fiscal sales year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083d5c88f3f6da4fcaea39de2dc047d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fiscal Year iPhone Revenues(Company Filings)</p><p>It was just a couple of weeks ago where Apple shares were north of $175 and the financial media was talking about a new all-time high potentially coming soon. However, the market has pulled back on fears that the Fed will need to continue its aggressiveness to slow down inflation. September is also the month where the Fed&#39;s maximum balance sheet runoff amount doubles. Thanks to the pullback, the average price target now represents decent upside for Apple shares, but this is a very tough environment to recommend going long almost any name.</p><p>In the end, my key takeaway from Apple&#39;s event on Wednesday was that the company wants to deliver for everyone. The company broadened the Watch lineup by introducing a new Ultra model, while also providing further separation between the Pro and non-Pro models of the iPhone. While there were concerns that Apple could raise smartphone prices, it kept things mostly in check, other than the switch out of the mini for the new Plus model. The company certainly delivered the goods, so now investors will be watching to see how responsive the consumer is.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Delivering For Everyone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Delivering For Everyone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-08 23:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539596-apple-stock-delivering-for-everyone?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNewest set of iPhones unveiled on Wednesday.Apple didn't raise prices as some were expecting.Finding a balance is the best way to go.On Wednesday, technology giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) held its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539596-apple-stock-delivering-for-everyone?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539596-apple-stock-delivering-for-everyone?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154244543","content_text":"SummaryNewest set of iPhones unveiled on Wednesday.Apple didn't raise prices as some were expecting.Finding a balance is the best way to go.On Wednesday, technology giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) held its much anticipated September product unveiling event. This year, expectations had been a little muted as consumers grapple with high inflation, so device pricing was going to be the key theme. In the end, Apple delivered with something for everyone, which could set up the company nicely for the holiday season.Let me start with some of the non-core products. Apple Watch Series 8 features a new temperature sensor along with some other tracking features, plus car crash detection. The company unveiled a new entry level SE version that goes for $249, which has a 30% larger face and is 20% faster. Consumers are also being treated to a new Ultra version that starts at $799, which is larger and has better battery life, while being geared towards the extreme fitness crowd. A second generation of the AirPods Pro was also unveiled, featuring a new chip and much improved audio.Of course, the star of the show was going to be the new series of iPhones. As expected, the new iPhone 14 and 14 Plus are 6.1 and 6.7 inches, respectively, and contain last year's A15 Bionic chip. These phones, along with the Watch, have a new service using Globalstar (GSAT) satellites for emergency use. The Plus model has the best battery life ever in an iPhone according to the company, while these two entry level devices feature a much improved camera system. The 14 will be available on September 16th, which gives it more than a week of sales in the current fiscal Q4 period, while the 14 Plus isn't available until October 7th.As for the Pro versions, they have a pill-like space at the top of the screen, known as the Dynamic Island, that changes based on the type of notification or action that is occurring, such as charging a phone or playing music. These models have an always-on display, along with a brighter screen and 48 megapixel camera sensor, and feature the newest chipset, the A16 Bionic. Perhaps the biggest news for the iPhone on Wednesday was pricing, which can be seen in the graphic below.Yearly iPhone Lineup(Apple Store)There were a handful of reports in recent weeks and months that Apple may increase prices this year, primarily due to inflation. Lately, these rumors seemed to focus more on the Pro versions only, but it turns out we didn't get any true price increases. Apple is swapping the mini for the Plus, which is a positive for average selling prices, along with the 12 this year being more expensive than the 11 was last year. For those looking for some value, the base 13 mini and regular 13 have double the storage than their year earlier counterparts did last year at the same price.The key for Apple here in my opinion is that it is improving its effort to provide something for everyone. Look at what the company did with the Watch. It has its primary version of the device, a cheaper \"SE\" model, and now a premium Ultra model. This year, Apple has separated the Pro versions of the iPhone a bit more from their entry level counterparts, given the higher end models get the newest chipsets, yet they didn't get an added price boost. As some of the early analyst comments suggest, Apple delivered modest upgrades this year, so it didn't take advantage of the consumer by raising prices in a tough inflation environment.While it may not be as important as it used to be, the iPhone is still the dominant product line for Apple. In the first nine months of the current fiscal year, which ends later this month, sales of the smartphone represented more than 54.2% of the company's revenues. That's actually up a little over the prior year's first three quarters, as supply chain issues have pressured sales of other devices. As the graphic below shows, the iPhone has still shown some decent revenue growth over the longer term. The 2022 number below with an asterisk is my current estimate, and the key here is that the iPhone could be about to report its first $200 billion fiscal sales year.Fiscal Year iPhone Revenues(Company Filings)It was just a couple of weeks ago where Apple shares were north of $175 and the financial media was talking about a new all-time high potentially coming soon. However, the market has pulled back on fears that the Fed will need to continue its aggressiveness to slow down inflation. September is also the month where the Fed's maximum balance sheet runoff amount doubles. Thanks to the pullback, the average price target now represents decent upside for Apple shares, but this is a very tough environment to recommend going long almost any name.In the end, my key takeaway from Apple's event on Wednesday was that the company wants to deliver for everyone. The company broadened the Watch lineup by introducing a new Ultra model, while also providing further separation between the Pro and non-Pro models of the iPhone. While there were concerns that Apple could raise smartphone prices, it kept things mostly in check, other than the switch out of the mini for the new Plus model. The company certainly delivered the goods, so now investors will be watching to see how responsive the consumer is.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9900579410,"gmtCreate":1658739478030,"gmtModify":1676536200144,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9900579410","repostId":"2254488186","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2254488186","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1658739100,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2254488186?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-07-25 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Philips Swings to Loss and Cuts Sales Guidance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2254488186","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Royal Philips NV (PHIA.AE) on Monday reported a swing to a net loss for the second quarter, which it","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Royal Philips NV (PHIA.AE) on Monday reported a swing to a net loss for the second quarter, which it blamed on a number of issues including pandemic-related lockdowns, inflationary pressures and the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p>Philips shares plunged 10% in premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438f9a0a0107ca6d28ec482ce98bb0fe\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"828\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Dutch health-technology company has cut its full-year comparable sales guidance to 1% to 3% from a previous forecast of 3% to 5%.</p><p>Still, the company said it expects to deliver growth and profitability improvement from second half of 2022 onward with comparable sales growth of 4%-6% by 2025.</p><p>Philips reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 22 million euros ($22.5 million) for the quarter, compared with a net profit of EUR150 million a year earlier.</p><p>Quarterly sales fell to EUR4.18 billion from EUR4.23 billion, missing analysts&#39; expectations of EUR4.23 billion. On a comparable basis, sales fell 7%, against a consensus estimate for a fall of 5.4%, the company said.</p><p>Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes and amortization--a metric that strips out exceptional and other one-off items--was EUR216 million, compared with EUR532 million a year earlier and consensus of EUR324 million, Philips said.</p><p>All consensus figures have been taken from the company&#39;s website.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Philips Swings to Loss and Cuts Sales Guidance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPhilips Swings to Loss and Cuts Sales Guidance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-25 16:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Royal Philips NV (PHIA.AE) on Monday reported a swing to a net loss for the second quarter, which it blamed on a number of issues including pandemic-related lockdowns, inflationary pressures and the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p>Philips shares plunged 10% in premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438f9a0a0107ca6d28ec482ce98bb0fe\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"828\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Dutch health-technology company has cut its full-year comparable sales guidance to 1% to 3% from a previous forecast of 3% to 5%.</p><p>Still, the company said it expects to deliver growth and profitability improvement from second half of 2022 onward with comparable sales growth of 4%-6% by 2025.</p><p>Philips reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 22 million euros ($22.5 million) for the quarter, compared with a net profit of EUR150 million a year earlier.</p><p>Quarterly sales fell to EUR4.18 billion from EUR4.23 billion, missing analysts&#39; expectations of EUR4.23 billion. On a comparable basis, sales fell 7%, against a consensus estimate for a fall of 5.4%, the company said.</p><p>Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes and amortization--a metric that strips out exceptional and other one-off items--was EUR216 million, compared with EUR532 million a year earlier and consensus of EUR324 million, Philips said.</p><p>All consensus figures have been taken from the company&#39;s website.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PHG":"飞利浦"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2254488186","content_text":"Royal Philips NV (PHIA.AE) on Monday reported a swing to a net loss for the second quarter, which it blamed on a number of issues including pandemic-related lockdowns, inflationary pressures and the Russia-Ukraine war.Philips shares plunged 10% in premarket trading.The Dutch health-technology company has cut its full-year comparable sales guidance to 1% to 3% from a previous forecast of 3% to 5%.Still, the company said it expects to deliver growth and profitability improvement from second half of 2022 onward with comparable sales growth of 4%-6% by 2025.Philips reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 22 million euros ($22.5 million) for the quarter, compared with a net profit of EUR150 million a year earlier.Quarterly sales fell to EUR4.18 billion from EUR4.23 billion, missing analysts' expectations of EUR4.23 billion. On a comparable basis, sales fell 7%, against a consensus estimate for a fall of 5.4%, the company said.Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes and amortization--a metric that strips out exceptional and other one-off items--was EUR216 million, compared with EUR532 million a year earlier and consensus of EUR324 million, Philips said.All consensus figures have been taken from the company's website.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174528315,"gmtCreate":1627114097937,"gmtModify":1703484476856,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174528315","repostId":"1191636755","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115670082,"gmtCreate":1622991866246,"gmtModify":1704194146704,"author":{"id":"3576550818064904","authorId":"3576550818064904","name":"Runningdown","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef91444757abfa72f3ede25e971f5398","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576550818064904","idStr":"3576550818064904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like. TIA","listText":"Comment and like. TIA","text":"Comment and like. TIA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115670082","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}