Sunc personal page - To The Moon

Sunc

Sunc

No personal profile

3Follow

63Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2023-01-19

ok

中概股涨势强劲！雾芯科技涨6%，B站、拼多多涨超3%

2023-01-13

ok

近三年损失30亿美元！高盛新成立的消费金融部门亏损惊人

2023-01-12

ok

特斯拉已在得州开始建造美国第一家锂精炼厂

2023-01-10

ok

老虎锐评 | 美国12月CPI预估，涨幅会回落多少？

2023-01-05

ok

开盘 | 美股三大指数集体低开，热门中概股走低

2022-12-30

ok

今年，是100年来财富损失最严重的年份之一

2022-12-29

ok

Chinese EV ADRs Gained in Morning Trading, With XPeng and Li Auto Rising Over 6%

2022-12-29

ok

Crypto Stocks Rose in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Jumping Over 6%

2022-12-28

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-27

ok

科技巨头业绩预期遭下调，苹果、亚马逊皆在其中

2022-12-26

ok

“史诗级”寒潮重创美国！“风暴炸弹”有多可怕？

2022-12-26

$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$ ok

2022-12-24

$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$ ok

2022-12-23

$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$ ok

2022-12-21

ok

邮轮股强势上涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%

2022-12-18

$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$ ok

2022-12-17

$Twitter(TWTR)$ ok

2022-12-17

ok

媒体：马斯克正寻找新投资者，平价转让推特股权

2022-12-15

$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$ ok

2022-12-14

ok

中国医药：将负责辉瑞新冠特效药在中国大陆市场的进口和经销

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3576729709142650","uuid":"3576729709142650","gmtCreate":1613635756811,"gmtModify":1619581203088,"name":"Sunc","pinyin":"sunc","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":63,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":506,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.67%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9956464016,"gmtCreate":1674141801236,"gmtModify":1676538926391,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956464016","repostId":"1120895828","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120895828","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674139196,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120895828?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-19 22:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中概股涨势强劲！雾芯科技涨6%，B站、拼多多涨超3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120895828","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月19日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，雾芯科技涨超6%，贝壳涨超4%，哔哩哔哩、拼多多、百度涨超3%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月19日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，雾芯科技涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨超3%，京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨超2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386df0369de8f8132ed55308f75d48f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b52b83976ceb2d08dd22efa28a5075\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概股涨势强劲！雾芯科技涨6%，B站、拼多多涨超3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概股涨势强劲！雾芯科技涨6%，B站、拼多多涨超3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-19 22:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月19日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，雾芯科技涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨超3%，京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨超2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386df0369de8f8132ed55308f75d48f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b52b83976ceb2d08dd22efa28a5075\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"HXC":"纳斯达克中国金龙指数","RLX":"雾芯科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120895828","content_text":"1月19日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，雾芯科技涨超6%，贝壳涨超4%，哔哩哔哩、拼多多、百度涨超3%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958303199,"gmtCreate":1673624149112,"gmtModify":1676538866853,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958303199","repostId":"1187472513","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187472513","pubTimestamp":1673621042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187472513?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-13 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"近三年损失30亿美元！高盛新成立的消费金融部门亏损惊人","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187472513","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在转型消费金融的过程中，高盛付出了惨痛代价。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：赵颖</p><p>“华尔街之王”玩不转消费贷，在这一业务上亏损越来越大。</p><p>周五，高盛在美国证券交易委员会披露的8-K文件显示，<b>其平台解决方案部门（Fintech和消费金融业务）在2022年1-9月份，税前亏损超过12亿美元，而且每季度亏损都在加速。</b></p><p>文件显示，从2020年初到9月底，平台解决方案部门亏损累计达30亿美元。当下周最新一季度的数据发布后，<b>预计三年累计损失将接近40亿美元。从信贷损失准备金数额的来看，去年损失将达到20亿美元。</b></p><p>这一业务最新源于高盛CEO所罗门的“零售银行梦”，2016年高盛推出消费者银行业务Marcus，向零售消费者提供贷款、储蓄和存单等产品，还通过与苹果公司的合作向消费者提供信用卡Apple Card。</p><p>然而，高盛消费金融业务发展过程十分坎坷，领导层更替、监管调查、亏损大幅攀升。由于持续飙升的成本和建立新业务线困难重重，高盛在去年10月推出史上最大规模重组，分拆消费金融业务。</p><p>高盛把四大业务部门合并为三个，投资银行和交易业务、资产管理和财富管理以及平台解决方案部门（包括零售银行中面向企业客户的业务、Fintech 平台投资业务、专业贷款机构 GreenSky 以及其与苹果公司（Apple Card）、通用汽车的合作业务）。</p><p>其中，投资银行和交易业务可能是唯一盈利的业务。</p><p><b>此外，媒体援引</b><b>知情人士</b><b>指出，平台解决方案部门2021年报告的10亿美元税前亏损主要与Apple Card有关</b>，他们表示2022年约20亿美元亏损是由Apple Card和分期贷款平台GreenSky导致的。</p><p>高盛的整体消费者业务最初曾预计将在去年年底实现收支平衡，知情人士称，平台解决方案部门的高管们现在预测，该部门可能在2025年的某个时候实现这一目标，但最终情况尚未确定。</p><p>与此同时，面对巨额亏损的压力，高盛CEO所罗门正在寻求其他方式来缩减支出，本周高盛拉开史上最大规模裁员的序幕、并考虑将投行部门员工奖金池缩减至少40%后，同时启动了金融危机以来最大规模的降本计划，矛头直指新技术部门、消费部门等各方面指出，评估从购置私人飞机到差旅、会议乃至外部供应商的各项费用。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>近三年损失30亿美元！高盛新成立的消费金融部门亏损惊人</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n近三年损失30亿美元！高盛新成立的消费金融部门亏损惊人\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-13 22:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679833><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：赵颖“华尔街之王”玩不转消费贷，在这一业务上亏损越来越大。周五，高盛在美国证券交易委员会披露的8-K文件显示，其平台解决方案部门（Fintech和消费金融业务）在2022年1-9月份，税前亏损超过12亿美元，而且每季度亏损都在加速。文件显示，从2020年初到9月底，平台解决方案部门亏损累计达30亿美元。当下周最新一季度的数据发布后，预计三年累计损失将接近40亿美元。从信贷损失准备金数额的来看...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679833\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1187472513","content_text":"作者：赵颖“华尔街之王”玩不转消费贷，在这一业务上亏损越来越大。周五，高盛在美国证券交易委员会披露的8-K文件显示，其平台解决方案部门（Fintech和消费金融业务）在2022年1-9月份，税前亏损超过12亿美元，而且每季度亏损都在加速。文件显示，从2020年初到9月底，平台解决方案部门亏损累计达30亿美元。当下周最新一季度的数据发布后，预计三年累计损失将接近40亿美元。从信贷损失准备金数额的来看，去年损失将达到20亿美元。这一业务最新源于高盛CEO所罗门的“零售银行梦”，2016年高盛推出消费者银行业务Marcus，向零售消费者提供贷款、储蓄和存单等产品，还通过与苹果公司的合作向消费者提供信用卡Apple Card。然而，高盛消费金融业务发展过程十分坎坷，领导层更替、监管调查、亏损大幅攀升。由于持续飙升的成本和建立新业务线困难重重，高盛在去年10月推出史上最大规模重组，分拆消费金融业务。高盛把四大业务部门合并为三个，投资银行和交易业务、资产管理和财富管理以及平台解决方案部门（包括零售银行中面向企业客户的业务、Fintech 平台投资业务、专业贷款机构 GreenSky 以及其与苹果公司（Apple Card）、通用汽车的合作业务）。其中，投资银行和交易业务可能是唯一盈利的业务。此外，媒体援引知情人士指出，平台解决方案部门2021年报告的10亿美元税前亏损主要与Apple Card有关，他们表示2022年约20亿美元亏损是由Apple Card和分期贷款平台GreenSky导致的。高盛的整体消费者业务最初曾预计将在去年年底实现收支平衡，知情人士称，平台解决方案部门的高管们现在预测，该部门可能在2025年的某个时候实现这一目标，但最终情况尚未确定。与此同时，面对巨额亏损的压力，高盛CEO所罗门正在寻求其他方式来缩减支出，本周高盛拉开史上最大规模裁员的序幕、并考虑将投行部门员工奖金池缩减至少40%后，同时启动了金融危机以来最大规模的降本计划，矛头直指新技术部门、消费部门等各方面指出，评估从购置私人飞机到差旅、会议乃至外部供应商的各项费用。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951413054,"gmtCreate":1673537815378,"gmtModify":1676538853139,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951413054","repostId":"1106057993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106057993","pubTimestamp":1673528303,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106057993?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-12 20:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉已在得州开始建造美国第一家锂精炼厂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106057993","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"一旦特斯拉自己开始生产电池级氢氧化锂，意味着原材料供应链将会极大缩短。","content":"<div>\n<p>记者 森宁一向高调的马斯克和特斯拉，在美国第一家锂矿精炼厂开工这件事上，却一反常态地极其低调。去年9月，埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)表示特斯拉将在美国本土冶炼锂矿，生产电池级氢氧化锂。而据autoevolution网站最新报道，近日，美国得克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂市的一个工地边已经悄悄竖起了标志，表明一项大型建设项目正在进行中。去年11月中旬，居住在得州科珀斯克里斯蒂市的推特博主@...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21531106\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"ppxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉已在得州开始建造美国第一家锂精炼厂</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉已在得州开始建造美国第一家锂精炼厂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-12 20:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21531106><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>记者 森宁一向高调的马斯克和特斯拉，在美国第一家锂矿精炼厂开工这件事上，却一反常态地极其低调。去年9月，埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)表示特斯拉将在美国本土冶炼锂矿，生产电池级氢氧化锂。而据autoevolution网站最新报道，近日，美国得克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂市的一个工地边已经悄悄竖起了标志，表明一项大型建设项目正在进行中。去年11月中旬，居住在得州科珀斯克里斯蒂市的推特博主@...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21531106\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e813ca9d0c4c08d1c3e0adfe0520aa75","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21531106","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106057993","content_text":"记者 森宁一向高调的马斯克和特斯拉，在美国第一家锂矿精炼厂开工这件事上，却一反常态地极其低调。去年9月，埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)表示特斯拉将在美国本土冶炼锂矿，生产电池级氢氧化锂。而据autoevolution网站最新报道，近日，美国得克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂市的一个工地边已经悄悄竖起了标志，表明一项大型建设项目正在进行中。去年11月中旬，居住在得州科珀斯克里斯蒂市的推特博主@fungineer43访问了特斯拉拟定的工厂建造地点，没有看到任何施工迹象。但他注意到土地上已经清理了建筑物和其他碎片，而且似乎已经进行了等级划分。而几天前，@fungineer43回到了原址，看到旁边的土路已经被砾石覆盖，最重要的是，土路旁已经张贴了一个标志，宣布特斯拉将在该地点建造一座锂精炼厂。此前特斯拉表示，计划对这座锂精炼工厂投资约3.75亿美元，将雇佣约165名全职员工，另外还有250个工期两年左右的建筑工作岗位，工厂预计将于2024年第四季度投入运营。此外，特斯拉提到，与“传统工艺”相比，在把锂精矿转化为电池级氢氧化锂的过程中，新的冶炼工厂将采用“创新工艺”，一方面需要更少的有害物质，另一方面产生更多可用的副产品。马斯克在去年8月份向美国得克萨斯州审计长办公室(Texas Comptroller’s Office)提交了建造这座工厂的申请，并意图获得税收减免。autoevolution网站推测，目前看来，这一申请已经得到了批准。另据美国汽车新闻网站Electrek报道，目前，特斯拉正在为其新的锂精炼厂扩大招聘，除了一名区域主管和一名区域建设经理，公司还在寻找一名“项目调度员”。职位描述显示，这一职位将为锂精炼厂从工程到施工调试的所有项目阶段提供支持，为项目管理提供关键决策信息，确保项目按时交付。锂对电动汽车制造业而言极其重要。autoevolution网站指出，在电动汽车制造中，平均每辆汽车需要高达8公斤(17.63磅)的锂来制造电池。去年7月，马斯克在推特上发文称，锂电池就是新的石油，以此来肯定锂在现代经济中的价值。此外，他在 7 月的特斯拉财报电话会议上也鼓励企业家们进入锂精炼行业，称关于锂的竞争不能输，投身这一业务就像印钞票一样赚钱。此前的4 月，马斯克曾在推特上写道：“锂的价格已经达到了疯狂的水平！除非我们改善成本，否则特斯拉可能不得不直接大规模进入（锂矿）开采和精炼领域。锂几乎到处都有，但是锂矿的精炼却很缓慢。”而在更早之前的春季，特斯拉与澳大利亚锂矿企业Core和Liontown Resources公司分别签署了两份重要合同，将购买来自两家公司生产的锂辉石精矿。其中，特斯拉与Liontown Resources公司签署了一项为期五年的锂辉石精矿供应协议，Liontown将于2024年开始向特斯拉供应锂辉石精矿。特斯拉将在第一年采购10万吨，并在随后的几年增加到每年15万吨。而特斯拉更曾一度有意收购Core公司旗下的芬尼斯（Finniss）锂矿，但该交易最后告吹。对于特斯拉锂的锂精炼厂开工的意义，autoevolution网站评论说，这可能是相当长一段时间以来，关于美国电动汽车电池生产的最重要的消息。首先，这是对新年开始生效的美国联邦政府已通过的《通货膨胀削减法案》(IRA)的响应。根据法案，美国联邦政府将对购买新电动汽车的消费者提供7500美元的税收抵免，抵免资格取决于三个条件： 一是汽车的最终组装是在北美进行；二是汽车电池的关键矿物的特定百分比来自北美或美国自由贸易协定伙伴，或在北美回收。具体要求为，2023/24/25/26/27年及以后关键矿物的价值百分比为40%/50%/60%/70%/80%。三是电池的组件的特定百分比是在北美制造。电池组件包括电池正负极材料本身、正极前驱、盐类材料、集流体（铜铝箔）、固体电极金属、粘合剂、电解质盐、电解质添加剂等。 具体要求为，2023/24/25/26/27/28/29年及以后组件的价值百分比为50%/60%/70%/80%/90%/100%。而目前，中国是锂精炼领域的主导者，拥有全球一半以上的产能。特斯拉目前所需要的电池级氢氧化锂的主供应商是中国企业赣锋锂业。根据赣锋锂业此前的公告，赣锋锂业从2022年1月1日起至2024年12月31日为特斯拉供应电池级氢氧化锂产品。因此，一旦特斯拉自己开始生产电池级氢氧化锂，意味着特斯拉的原材料供应链将会极大缩短。对于那些已经或计划在美国建设电池工厂的汽车和电池公司来说，在美国开设锂精炼厂也是利好消息，因为这意味着他们能够在更便捷地取得原材料。Autoevolution评论说，如果对埃隆·马斯克有所了解，那么不难猜测，在特斯拉的锂精炼厂投产后，产品不仅会供特斯拉自用，而且极有可能还会卖给其他电池制造商，作为特斯拉另外的收入来源。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951040533,"gmtCreate":1673364105822,"gmtModify":1676538824895,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951040533","repostId":"1185461473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185461473","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673358951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185461473?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 21:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎锐评 | 美国12月CPI预估，涨幅会回落多少？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185461473","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"周四的数字不会难看。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>12月CPI预估</b></p><p>从上周五开始，市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象。什么叫做市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象，就是说股市的上涨下跌没有逻辑可言，但是其它资产的交易逻辑性非常强，而股市突然上涨或者下跌的时候，恰好是其它宏观资产价格剧烈变化的时候。</p><p>按照重要性排序，现在对于美国加息决议的决定因素是“<b>CPI数据 &gt;鲍威尔在某个场合的讲话 &gt;其他美联储成员在某个场合的讲话 &gt; FOMC会议</b>”。最没有看头的反而是FOMC会议，当然也不得不看，因为害怕美联储会放雷。</p><p>12月美国的CPI数据还没出来，但是欧盟的CPI数据出来了。根据彭博的数据，欧盟12月的CPI数据进一步高位下降。下图是美国（蓝线）和欧盟（白线）的CPI，两者关系非常紧密。细心的人会发现欧盟CPI冲高回落似乎比美国晚，这里面的核心原因在于能源部分。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da9c1b458f4ae27c6343845d3c362a0\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>下图是美国CPI中能源部分的增长率，是去年6月见顶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4178d5d5316c92b4cc480c2901621104\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是欧盟CPI的能源部分，是去年10月才开始回落。这个差异和常识也相互吻合，美国的能源独立性更强，欧盟的能源依赖性更强。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7e4429e60cbcb22e9dd75ddad726c\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>欧盟12月的CPI进一步回落暗示了美国也会回落，那美国12的CPI具体是多少呢？我今天来估算一下。</p><p>第一个部分是能源，11月的同比增长还是13%，但是根据汽油的平均价格来看，12月的同比增长会是负数，也就是说2022年12月的汽油价格比2021年12月的汽油价格还便宜，大概同比增长是-1%。考虑到能源部分中还有一些服务部分，价格具有一定的粘滞性，能源的同比增长大概只有3%。下图是美国的汽油价格，红框是12月。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02408072b8cc9d2d908fb63026ce78fe\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>第二部分是食物（下图是食物的指数），是属于通胀比较顽固的部分，目前通胀的环比开始放缓。这里数学处理一下，沿用11月的环比增幅来估计12月的食物指数，那么12月的食物部分的同比增长是10%，这个和11月的食物同比增长10.6%相近。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89390ae120d8aad75d80c8a7084b1f26\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对于第三部分（商品）和第四部分（服务），均采用和食物类似的处理方式。商品的同比增长将会是2%，低于11月的3.7%；服务的同比增长将会是7%，略微高于11月的6.8%。商品价格的回落有目共睹，所以实际可能比2%更低。服务的同比增长依然具有粘性，这里面房租的贡献最大，从现在的实际感受来看，房租确实没有回落。</p><p><b>最后把预估的4部分套上各自的权重系数，那么12月的通胀预估是6.0%。目前华尔街分析师的预期均值是6.5%，我的比他们的预期要低0.5%。</b>注意，我的预估其实都是偏保守，因为食物、商品和服务的环比增长在过去4个月都是越来越小，而我套用的是11月的环比增长来预估12月的数，很保守。下图是这3部分过去4个月的指数以及环比增长，环比变弱的趋势明显。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241911f59afe4f641417c5dd98836505\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>周四的数字不会难看。</p><p><i>免责声明：非研究报告，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎锐评 | 美国12月CPI预估，涨幅会回落多少？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎锐评 | 美国12月CPI预估，涨幅会回落多少？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-10 21:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>12月CPI预估</b></p><p>从上周五开始，市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象。什么叫做市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象，就是说股市的上涨下跌没有逻辑可言，但是其它资产的交易逻辑性非常强，而股市突然上涨或者下跌的时候，恰好是其它宏观资产价格剧烈变化的时候。</p><p>按照重要性排序，现在对于美国加息决议的决定因素是“<b>CPI数据 &gt;鲍威尔在某个场合的讲话 &gt;其他美联储成员在某个场合的讲话 &gt; FOMC会议</b>”。最没有看头的反而是FOMC会议，当然也不得不看，因为害怕美联储会放雷。</p><p>12月美国的CPI数据还没出来，但是欧盟的CPI数据出来了。根据彭博的数据，欧盟12月的CPI数据进一步高位下降。下图是美国（蓝线）和欧盟（白线）的CPI，两者关系非常紧密。细心的人会发现欧盟CPI冲高回落似乎比美国晚，这里面的核心原因在于能源部分。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da9c1b458f4ae27c6343845d3c362a0\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>下图是美国CPI中能源部分的增长率，是去年6月见顶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4178d5d5316c92b4cc480c2901621104\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是欧盟CPI的能源部分，是去年10月才开始回落。这个差异和常识也相互吻合，美国的能源独立性更强，欧盟的能源依赖性更强。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7e4429e60cbcb22e9dd75ddad726c\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>欧盟12月的CPI进一步回落暗示了美国也会回落，那美国12的CPI具体是多少呢？我今天来估算一下。</p><p>第一个部分是能源，11月的同比增长还是13%，但是根据汽油的平均价格来看，12月的同比增长会是负数，也就是说2022年12月的汽油价格比2021年12月的汽油价格还便宜，大概同比增长是-1%。考虑到能源部分中还有一些服务部分，价格具有一定的粘滞性，能源的同比增长大概只有3%。下图是美国的汽油价格，红框是12月。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02408072b8cc9d2d908fb63026ce78fe\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>第二部分是食物（下图是食物的指数），是属于通胀比较顽固的部分，目前通胀的环比开始放缓。这里数学处理一下，沿用11月的环比增幅来估计12月的食物指数，那么12月的食物部分的同比增长是10%，这个和11月的食物同比增长10.6%相近。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89390ae120d8aad75d80c8a7084b1f26\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对于第三部分（商品）和第四部分（服务），均采用和食物类似的处理方式。商品的同比增长将会是2%，低于11月的3.7%；服务的同比增长将会是7%，略微高于11月的6.8%。商品价格的回落有目共睹，所以实际可能比2%更低。服务的同比增长依然具有粘性，这里面房租的贡献最大，从现在的实际感受来看，房租确实没有回落。</p><p><b>最后把预估的4部分套上各自的权重系数，那么12月的通胀预估是6.0%。目前华尔街分析师的预期均值是6.5%，我的比他们的预期要低0.5%。</b>注意，我的预估其实都是偏保守，因为食物、商品和服务的环比增长在过去4个月都是越来越小，而我套用的是11月的环比增长来预估12月的数，很保守。下图是这3部分过去4个月的指数以及环比增长，环比变弱的趋势明显。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241911f59afe4f641417c5dd98836505\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>周四的数字不会难看。</p><p><i>免责声明：非研究报告，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。</i></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185461473","content_text":"12月CPI预估从上周五开始，市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象。什么叫做市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象，就是说股市的上涨下跌没有逻辑可言，但是其它资产的交易逻辑性非常强，而股市突然上涨或者下跌的时候，恰好是其它宏观资产价格剧烈变化的时候。按照重要性排序，现在对于美国加息决议的决定因素是“CPI数据 >鲍威尔在某个场合的讲话 >其他美联储成员在某个场合的讲话 > FOMC会议”。最没有看头的反而是FOMC会议，当然也不得不看，因为害怕美联储会放雷。12月美国的CPI数据还没出来，但是欧盟的CPI数据出来了。根据彭博的数据，欧盟12月的CPI数据进一步高位下降。下图是美国（蓝线）和欧盟（白线）的CPI，两者关系非常紧密。细心的人会发现欧盟CPI冲高回落似乎比美国晚，这里面的核心原因在于能源部分。下图是美国CPI中能源部分的增长率，是去年6月见顶。但是欧盟CPI的能源部分，是去年10月才开始回落。这个差异和常识也相互吻合，美国的能源独立性更强，欧盟的能源依赖性更强。欧盟12月的CPI进一步回落暗示了美国也会回落，那美国12的CPI具体是多少呢？我今天来估算一下。第一个部分是能源，11月的同比增长还是13%，但是根据汽油的平均价格来看，12月的同比增长会是负数，也就是说2022年12月的汽油价格比2021年12月的汽油价格还便宜，大概同比增长是-1%。考虑到能源部分中还有一些服务部分，价格具有一定的粘滞性，能源的同比增长大概只有3%。下图是美国的汽油价格，红框是12月。第二部分是食物（下图是食物的指数），是属于通胀比较顽固的部分，目前通胀的环比开始放缓。这里数学处理一下，沿用11月的环比增幅来估计12月的食物指数，那么12月的食物部分的同比增长是10%，这个和11月的食物同比增长10.6%相近。对于第三部分（商品）和第四部分（服务），均采用和食物类似的处理方式。商品的同比增长将会是2%，低于11月的3.7%；服务的同比增长将会是7%，略微高于11月的6.8%。商品价格的回落有目共睹，所以实际可能比2%更低。服务的同比增长依然具有粘性，这里面房租的贡献最大，从现在的实际感受来看，房租确实没有回落。最后把预估的4部分套上各自的权重系数，那么12月的通胀预估是6.0%。目前华尔街分析师的预期均值是6.5%，我的比他们的预期要低0.5%。注意，我的预估其实都是偏保守，因为食物、商品和服务的环比增长在过去4个月都是越来越小，而我套用的是11月的环比增长来预估12月的数，很保守。下图是这3部分过去4个月的指数以及环比增长，环比变弱的趋势明显。周四的数字不会难看。免责声明：非研究报告，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959129659,"gmtCreate":1672932276671,"gmtModify":1676538759677,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959129659","repostId":"1158940630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158940630","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672929021,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158940630?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-05 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘 | 美股三大指数集体低开，热门中概股走低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158940630","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月5日，美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌174.84点，跌幅0.53%，报33094.93点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌74.69点，跌幅0.71%，报10384.07点；标普500指数开盘下","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月5日，美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌174.84点，跌幅0.53%，报33094.93点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌74.69点，跌幅0.71%，报10384.07点；标普500指数开盘下跌29.43点，跌幅0.76%，报3823.54点。</p><p>热门中概股走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>跌逾6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌近3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B家居</a>跌超23%，创去年8月以来最大盘中跌幅，此前表示无法按时提交10Q季度报表，且正在考虑包括破产救济的相关选项。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨逾2%，知情人士称西部数据已经重启与日本公司铠侠的合并交易谈判。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate</a>重挫40%，创历史最大盘中跌幅，报道称Silvergate出售价值52亿美元的债权证券，并计划裁员约40%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘 | 美股三大指数集体低开，热门中概股走低</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘 | 美股三大指数集体低开，热门中概股走低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-05 22:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月5日，美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌174.84点，跌幅0.53%，报33094.93点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌74.69点，跌幅0.71%，报10384.07点；标普500指数开盘下跌29.43点，跌幅0.76%，报3823.54点。</p><p>热门中概股走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>跌逾6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌近3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B家居</a>跌超23%，创去年8月以来最大盘中跌幅，此前表示无法按时提交10Q季度报表，且正在考虑包括破产救济的相关选项。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨逾2%，知情人士称西部数据已经重启与日本公司铠侠的合并交易谈判。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate</a>重挫40%，创历史最大盘中跌幅，报道称Silvergate出售价值52亿美元的债权证券，并计划裁员约40%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158940630","content_text":"1月5日，美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌174.84点，跌幅0.53%，报33094.93点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌74.69点，跌幅0.71%，报10384.07点；标普500指数开盘下跌29.43点，跌幅0.76%，报3823.54点。热门中概股走低，高途跌逾6%，京东跌超3%，阿里巴巴、百度跌近3%。3B家居跌超23%，创去年8月以来最大盘中跌幅，此前表示无法按时提交10Q季度报表，且正在考虑包括破产救济的相关选项。西部数据涨逾2%，知情人士称西部数据已经重启与日本公司铠侠的合并交易谈判。Silvergate重挫40%，创历史最大盘中跌幅，报道称Silvergate出售价值52亿美元的债权证券，并计划裁员约40%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927193622,"gmtCreate":1672413582066,"gmtModify":1676538688068,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927193622","repostId":"1161296820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161296820","pubTimestamp":1672409292,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161296820?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-30 22:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"今年，是100年来财富损失最严重的年份之一","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161296820","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高通胀还在继续，基金经理们的2023年又该如何应对？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：葛佳明</p><p>2022年在各国央行为抗击通胀的密集加息中落幕。</p><p>股市和债券都遭遇了始料未及的“暴击”，资管公司正在努力应对100年以来最难熬的一年，<b>由于风险无法对冲，资金找不到“避风港”，</b>多数以股票和固定资产为组合的标准投资方式在今年都遭遇了不小的损失。</p><p>根据HFR的数据，股票对冲基金今年平均下跌9.7%，有望创自2008年金融危机以来最差的年度回报率。</p><p>瑞士跨国私人银行和金融服务公司Pictet负责人Renaud de Planta称<b>今年是近100年来财富损失最严重的年份之一，许多私人投资者的实际财富在经通胀调整后，损失或将超过四分之一</b>：</p><blockquote>公司管理着约6350亿美元的资产，拿最简单的一个投资组合——债券和股票来举例。今年全球的股票和债券基本都出现了两位数的跌幅。这两种资产类别通常可以对冲来平衡，今年是100年来财富缩水最严重的年份之一。</blockquote><p>媒体称，瑞士私人银行 Lombard Odier 的首席投资官 Stéphane Monier在接受采访时表示，2022 年是自1926 年以来<b>仅有的三年股票和债券均出现“明显负回报”的年份。</b>追踪全球股市的MSCI世界指数自1月以来下跌了14%，而彭博固定收益指数下跌也超10%。</p><p>根据Asset Risk Consultants (ARC)的研究，通过跟踪英国100多家大型资管公司今年以来的投资回报，截至12月15日，英国资管公司客户们的投资组合经通胀调整后，<b>平均损失近20%</b>。</p><p>ARC表示，撇开通涨不看，今年的投资组合平均损失10%，ARC负责人Graham Harrison表示<b>今年的投资者几乎没有避免损失的机会</b>：</p><blockquote>除了能源和大宗商品，几乎所有类别的资产都在下跌，投资者几乎没有避免损失的机会。</blockquote><p>美国债券市场创下了数十年来的最大跌幅，美国两年期国债收益率从0.7%飙升至 4.3%，十年期国债收益率已从2021年底的1.5%跃升至超3.8%。今年以来英国国债涨超250%。没有任何预兆，日本央行12月出人意料地转向，使得日本10年期国债收益率飙升21个基点至0.467％，为2015年以来最高。</p><p>惨状也同样发生在全球股市，除英国富时100也累计上涨1.74%，全球发达市场主要股指均下跌，纳斯达克年内累计下跌33.03%，德国DAX跌11.41%，日经225跌9.37%，法国CAC40跌8.1%。</p><p>基金经理们不得不寻找与股票和债券不相关的资产。Monier表示，<b>从波动性中获益的对冲基金，可以在今年获得不错的投资回报率。不少基金经理们表示，他们已增持大宗商品，同时增加黄金在大宗商品的比例。</b></p><p>Monier称，传统观点认为，债券为主的策略在市场低迷期间损失较小。然而，<b>许多以固定收益为主的投资组合今年的表现不如以股票为主的期权投资</b>：</p><blockquote>几十年来最高的通胀率，以及不断攀升的利率，对债券来说是一个特别有问题的组合。</blockquote><p>媒体分析指出，今年不稳定的情况还要求基金经理们花大量的时间与客户面对面，以防止客户们恐慌出逃。财富管理公司Stonehage Fleming的CEO Peter McLean称，他们今年与客户进行了比以往几年更多的接触：</p><blockquote>我们不得不对发生的事情、发生的原因以及将在未来适当的时候做出哪些改变进行解释。</blockquote><p>通胀的突然飙升给资管公司带来了特殊的挑战，也是他们几十年来从未面对过的挑战。</p><p>而现在，通货膨胀率仍然接近10%，意味着经理们2023年的开局也将远远落后，需要提供更好的业绩才能实现收支平衡。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今年，是100年来财富损失最严重的年份之一</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今年，是100年来财富损失最严重的年份之一\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-30 22:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678748><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：葛佳明2022年在各国央行为抗击通胀的密集加息中落幕。股市和债券都遭遇了始料未及的“暴击”，资管公司正在努力应对100年以来最难熬的一年，由于风险无法对冲，资金找不到“避风港”，多数以股票和固定资产为组合的标准投资方式在今年都遭遇了不小的损失。根据HFR的数据，股票对冲基金今年平均下跌9.7%，有望创自2008年金融危机以来最差的年度回报率。瑞士跨国私人银行和金融服务公司Pictet负责人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678748\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8de43451c68f57a0fdb81f66644722a","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678748","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1161296820","content_text":"作者：葛佳明2022年在各国央行为抗击通胀的密集加息中落幕。股市和债券都遭遇了始料未及的“暴击”，资管公司正在努力应对100年以来最难熬的一年，由于风险无法对冲，资金找不到“避风港”，多数以股票和固定资产为组合的标准投资方式在今年都遭遇了不小的损失。根据HFR的数据，股票对冲基金今年平均下跌9.7%，有望创自2008年金融危机以来最差的年度回报率。瑞士跨国私人银行和金融服务公司Pictet负责人Renaud de Planta称今年是近100年来财富损失最严重的年份之一，许多私人投资者的实际财富在经通胀调整后，损失或将超过四分之一：公司管理着约6350亿美元的资产，拿最简单的一个投资组合——债券和股票来举例。今年全球的股票和债券基本都出现了两位数的跌幅。这两种资产类别通常可以对冲来平衡，今年是100年来财富缩水最严重的年份之一。媒体称，瑞士私人银行 Lombard Odier 的首席投资官 Stéphane Monier在接受采访时表示，2022 年是自1926 年以来仅有的三年股票和债券均出现“明显负回报”的年份。追踪全球股市的MSCI世界指数自1月以来下跌了14%，而彭博固定收益指数下跌也超10%。根据Asset Risk Consultants (ARC)的研究，通过跟踪英国100多家大型资管公司今年以来的投资回报，截至12月15日，英国资管公司客户们的投资组合经通胀调整后，平均损失近20%。ARC表示，撇开通涨不看，今年的投资组合平均损失10%，ARC负责人Graham Harrison表示今年的投资者几乎没有避免损失的机会：除了能源和大宗商品，几乎所有类别的资产都在下跌，投资者几乎没有避免损失的机会。美国债券市场创下了数十年来的最大跌幅，美国两年期国债收益率从0.7%飙升至 4.3%，十年期国债收益率已从2021年底的1.5%跃升至超3.8%。今年以来英国国债涨超250%。没有任何预兆，日本央行12月出人意料地转向，使得日本10年期国债收益率飙升21个基点至0.467％，为2015年以来最高。惨状也同样发生在全球股市，除英国富时100也累计上涨1.74%，全球发达市场主要股指均下跌，纳斯达克年内累计下跌33.03%，德国DAX跌11.41%，日经225跌9.37%，法国CAC40跌8.1%。基金经理们不得不寻找与股票和债券不相关的资产。Monier表示，从波动性中获益的对冲基金，可以在今年获得不错的投资回报率。不少基金经理们表示，他们已增持大宗商品，同时增加黄金在大宗商品的比例。Monier称，传统观点认为，债券为主的策略在市场低迷期间损失较小。然而，许多以固定收益为主的投资组合今年的表现不如以股票为主的期权投资：几十年来最高的通胀率，以及不断攀升的利率，对债券来说是一个特别有问题的组合。媒体分析指出，今年不稳定的情况还要求基金经理们花大量的时间与客户面对面，以防止客户们恐慌出逃。财富管理公司Stonehage Fleming的CEO Peter McLean称，他们今年与客户进行了比以往几年更多的接触：我们不得不对发生的事情、发生的原因以及将在未来适当的时候做出哪些改变进行解释。通胀的突然飙升给资管公司带来了特殊的挑战，也是他们几十年来从未面对过的挑战。而现在，通货膨胀率仍然接近10%，意味着经理们2023年的开局也将远远落后，需要提供更好的业绩才能实现收支平衡。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924735156,"gmtCreate":1672327434975,"gmtModify":1676538673250,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924735156","repostId":"1184536778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184536778","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672325074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184536778?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-29 22:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese EV ADRs Gained in Morning Trading, With XPeng and Li Auto Rising Over 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184536778","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.\"The market","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.</p><p>&#34;The market has recently worried about the impact of China&#39;s Covid policy adjustment on the demand and supply of NEVs. We believe that the overall impact is limited,&#34; CICC analyst Deng Xue&#39;s team wrote in a research note.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbe6ce87f0d2a51cad96247a7bcd58f\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the demand side, the Covid infection since December did have some impact on sales of NEVs, mainly in terms of consumer visits to stores, the team said.</p><p>In addition, some salespeople have been affected, the team said, adding that these factors can create some disruption in the acquisition of new orders.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese EV ADRs Gained in Morning Trading, With XPeng and Li Auto Rising Over 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese EV ADRs Gained in Morning Trading, With XPeng and Li Auto Rising Over 6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-29 22:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.</p><p>&#34;The market has recently worried about the impact of China&#39;s Covid policy adjustment on the demand and supply of NEVs. We believe that the overall impact is limited,&#34; CICC analyst Deng Xue&#39;s team wrote in a research note.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbe6ce87f0d2a51cad96247a7bcd58f\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the demand side, the Covid infection since December did have some impact on sales of NEVs, mainly in terms of consumer visits to stores, the team said.</p><p>In addition, some salespeople have been affected, the team said, adding that these factors can create some disruption in the acquisition of new orders.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184536778","content_text":"Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.\"The market has recently worried about the impact of China's Covid policy adjustment on the demand and supply of NEVs. We believe that the overall impact is limited,\" CICC analyst Deng Xue's team wrote in a research note.On the demand side, the Covid infection since December did have some impact on sales of NEVs, mainly in terms of consumer visits to stores, the team said.In addition, some salespeople have been affected, the team said, adding that these factors can create some disruption in the acquisition of new orders.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924732977,"gmtCreate":1672327284300,"gmtModify":1676538673198,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924732977","repostId":"1117624391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117624391","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672325904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117624391?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-29 22:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Stocks Rose in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Jumping Over 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117624391","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Lim","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.</p><p>Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Limited rose over 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7597446a6b98ae1f6b063e09569dca37\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Stocks Rose in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Jumping Over 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Stocks Rose in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Jumping Over 6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-29 22:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.</p><p>Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Limited rose over 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7597446a6b98ae1f6b063e09569dca37\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NCTY":"第九城市","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117624391","content_text":"Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Limited rose over 6%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924638527,"gmtCreate":1672239713969,"gmtModify":1676538657994,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924638527","repostId":"1119468919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924909811,"gmtCreate":1672150647533,"gmtModify":1676538642439,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924909811","repostId":"1149804865","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149804865","pubTimestamp":1672142424,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149804865?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-27 20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科技巨头业绩预期遭下调，苹果、亚马逊皆在其中","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149804865","media":"英为财情","summary":"多位分析师下调了对主要科技公司的预估，以纳入持续的宏观逆风因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>摩根士丹利美国股票策略师上周发布研究报告警告，受到负面估计修正的拖累，股市接下来可能走低。</p><p>近期，多位分析师下调了对主要科技公司的预估，以纳入持续的宏观逆风因素。如Baird分析师下调了互联网股2023年预期和目标价，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta Platforms。</p><p>分析师在报告中表示，「我们下调了对一系列互联网风向标2023年的预估，反映出电子商务和网络广告在大流行之后的恢复速度放缓，以及对温和到适度的经济衰退和劳动力市场疲软的预期。虽然经济出现更严重衰退的概率进一步下降，但我们现在仍然对ABNB、AMZN、BABA、EBAY、GOOGL、META、PINS、PYPL和SHOP的看法仍然低于一致预期。」</p><p>分析师对AMZN、GOOGL和META的最新目标价分别为每股120美元、115美元和145美元。不过，中期内，分析师仍然看好这些超级大盘股，他们预计「积极的长期增长趋势终将恢复」。</p><p>同时，Needham &amp; Company的分析师下调了对亚马逊的预估。</p><p>「我们认为，亚马逊的经济模式有自己的问题。即我们预计2022财年的营业额估计保持在大约5100亿美元不变，然而成本在2022财年将达到近5000亿美元。因此，在2022财年，100万名员工全年创造的经营利润将达到约110亿美元(经营利润率仅为2%)」</p><p>分析师还下调了苹果的业绩预估，现在预计2023年的收入增速仅为2%。</p><p>报告写道：「我们下调了苹果2023财年第一财季和全财年的预期，原因是全球宏观消费需求趋势疲软，供应链短缺，以及中美之间日益加剧的地缘政治压力，导致2023财年中国的iPhone需求疲软(历史上约占苹果销售收入的20%)。」</p></body></html>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技巨头业绩预期遭下调，苹果、亚马逊皆在其中</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技巨头业绩预期遭下调，苹果、亚马逊皆在其中\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-27 20:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2162590><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利美国股票策略师上周发布研究报告警告，受到负面估计修正的拖累，股市接下来可能走低。近期，多位分析师下调了对主要科技公司的预估，以纳入持续的宏观逆风因素。如Baird分析师下调了互联网股2023年预期和目标价，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta Platforms。分析师在报告中表示，「我们下调了对一系列互联网风向标2023年的预估，反映出电子商务和网络广告在大流行之后的恢复速度放缓，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2162590\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9affa90aeb60480d0aba843f0241d9e8","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2162590","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149804865","content_text":"摩根士丹利美国股票策略师上周发布研究报告警告，受到负面估计修正的拖累，股市接下来可能走低。近期，多位分析师下调了对主要科技公司的预估，以纳入持续的宏观逆风因素。如Baird分析师下调了互联网股2023年预期和目标价，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta Platforms。分析师在报告中表示，「我们下调了对一系列互联网风向标2023年的预估，反映出电子商务和网络广告在大流行之后的恢复速度放缓，以及对温和到适度的经济衰退和劳动力市场疲软的预期。虽然经济出现更严重衰退的概率进一步下降，但我们现在仍然对ABNB、AMZN、BABA、EBAY、GOOGL、META、PINS、PYPL和SHOP的看法仍然低于一致预期。」分析师对AMZN、GOOGL和META的最新目标价分别为每股120美元、115美元和145美元。不过，中期内，分析师仍然看好这些超级大盘股，他们预计「积极的长期增长趋势终将恢复」。同时，Needham & Company的分析师下调了对亚马逊的预估。「我们认为，亚马逊的经济模式有自己的问题。即我们预计2022财年的营业额估计保持在大约5100亿美元不变，然而成本在2022财年将达到近5000亿美元。因此，在2022财年，100万名员工全年创造的经营利润将达到约110亿美元(经营利润率仅为2%)」分析师还下调了苹果的业绩预估，现在预计2023年的收入增速仅为2%。报告写道：「我们下调了苹果2023财年第一财季和全财年的预期，原因是全球宏观消费需求趋势疲软，供应链短缺，以及中美之间日益加剧的地缘政治压力，导致2023财年中国的iPhone需求疲软(历史上约占苹果销售收入的20%)。」","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925568135,"gmtCreate":1672067818427,"gmtModify":1676538629417,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925568135","repostId":"1171674800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171674800","pubTimestamp":1672063552,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171674800?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“史诗级”寒潮重创美国！“风暴炸弹”有多可怕？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171674800","media":"中国气象","summary":"这场寒潮到底有多可怕呢？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：张宏伟</p><p>这几天，被当地媒体称为“<b>史诗级</b>”的寒潮，给北美地区尤其是美国带来了<b>“40年来最寒冷的圣诞节</b>”。</p><p>就连美国总统拜登都高声呼吁<b>“</b>这不是演习，不要以为这还是你们小时候下雪的日子<b>”。</b></p><p>那么这场寒潮到底有多可怕呢？</p><p><b>到底有多冷？</b></p><p><b>部分地区气温降至-40℃。</b></p><p>当地时间上周五（12月23日）开始一场规模罕见的寒潮席卷了美国、加拿大大部地区。</p><p>在美国东北部的纽约州伊利县布法罗市积雪已经厚达60厘米，伊利县官员说<b>“当天的暴风雪可能是当地有史以来最猛烈的一次”。</b></p><p>当地时间12月24日，全美多地仍然持续严寒，东北部宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡市预报最低气温为-13℃。打破1983年创下的圣诞节前夕低温纪录，而首都华盛顿的气温也创下1989年以来同日最低纪录。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34a2797c8f5a7403ec1dcf4df58b61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>当地时间2022年12月24日，人们冒着严寒在美国芝加哥市中心购物</p><p>这一天，东南部的佐治亚州及墨西哥湾沿岸得克萨斯州、路易斯安那州、亚拉巴马州和佛罗里达州都发布了低温预警。</p><p>美国国家气象局表示，<b>“建议”或“警报”级别的预警范围覆盖超过2.4亿</b>，占美国人口约三分之二，是有史以来范围最广的之一。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda27224d7c9193f631d9dc44765a6b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>美国国家气象局25日称，除西南部加利福尼亚州等少数地区外，美国绝大多数地区气温下降至低于正常水平。</p><p><b>甚至素来温暖的得克萨斯州乔治亚州和佛罗里达州也不例外。</b></p><p><b>灾害影响有多大？</b></p><p><b>交通、供电遭遇“大危机”。</b></p><p>美联社等媒体报道称因“风暴炸弹”（Causes Bomb）带来的这场“至少10年未遇”的“史诗级”严寒和暴风雪给美国及加拿大的交通、能源、人员等造成严重影响。</p><p><b>交通方面美国人的“洋春运”圣诞假期因这场寒潮变得一片混乱。</b></p><p>12月22日至25日全美逾万个航班被迫取消或延误为此，西南航空、美国航空美联航和达美航空等美国主要航空公司都发布了全美各地“旅行豁免”，免除了旅客受恶劣天气影响造成的航班改签费。</p><p>同时，加拿大数千个航班延误或取消，就连位于通常较温暖的西部维多利亚、温哥华等机场也未能“幸免”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2115491a0b3519b09eb86d25415152\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>陆上交通同样受到影响，北达科他、南达科他、俄克拉何马艾奥瓦等州报告道路结冰、暴风雪能见度几乎为零的情况。</p><p>在加拿大人口最多的安大略省、魁北克省东部的大西洋省、新不伦瑞克省以及西部的不列颠哥伦比亚省等许多地区，也不同程度出现交通中断铁路运输延误等问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da539f5af8aa4b66e698a014ce9e9cdd\" tg-width=\"368\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>路面上全部结冰，有美国网友表示，想要出门需要穿登山装备才能勉强行走</p><p><b>能源供应方面，</b>据美国一家监测供电状况的网站发布的数据，截至美国东部时间24日上午，寒潮导致超过170万居民和商业用户断电。</p><p>一家总部位于宾夕法尼亚州覆盖美国东部约6500万人用电的电力公司表示：<b>由于发电厂在寒冷的天气中难以运营，圣诞节假期其电网覆盖区域内许多地方不得不选择“轮流停电”。</b></p><p>同时，因为停电得州的电费已经飙升了400%，这对于处在水深火热之中的美国民众而言无疑是又一重打击。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a325273240185aa9ba176ee49c6f58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>暴雪让爱荷华州的农村都湮没在一片白色之中</p><p><b>这场灾害也造成了人员伤亡，</b>据美联社报道，全美多地共计至少18人因这次恶劣天气死亡，而美国全国广播公司统计的死亡数字则为23人死亡，原因包括能见度差、道路湿滑导致的车祸低温或生病无法及时获得救治等。</p><p><b>什么引发了“史诗级”寒潮？</b></p><p>“风暴炸弹”是个啥？</p><p>美国和加拿大气象学家表示，此次席卷大半个北美的寒潮与来势汹汹的“风暴炸弹”有关，而其成因则较为复杂：最初在北极白雪皑皑的冰面上形成了一个空前强大的低气压随后，大气层中部和上部出现了强大且不稳定的急气流，<b>这个巨大的“冷槽”自西北而东南迅速横扫了加拿大和美国的大部分地区。</b></p><p>我国气象部门运用风云气象卫星等进行监测早在12月23日就指出<b>“受北极高压影响加拿大西部的极寒气团沿落基山东麓南下将席卷美国本土造成北美大部降温”</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e490d8be5900602f5c2dc280aac11b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图为2022年12月22日FY-3D卫星真彩色图像</p><p>风云气象卫星监测显示，2022年12月23日至25日，受极区冷空气南下的影响，北美等地出现强寒潮天气过程。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbaf5c3f327e4b5498374b1af75c937\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图为2022年12月25日FY-3D卫星北美区域真彩色图像</p><p>FY-3D气象卫星850hPa日平均温度监测显示，冷空气逐渐南压受其影响北美部分地区温度大幅降低，其中美国东北部降温较明显。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39951ff00f1b8686aca8a0cfe38467a\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>图为2022年12月23日至25日北美区域FY-3D 850hPa日平均温度</p><p>此外，美国一些地理学家指出，北美较大的山脉多是南北走向，如西部的落基山脉东部的阿巴拉契亚山脉都是如此，两大山脉之间是宽阔的低海拔高原和平原这种地形很难抵御大型冷空气的急袭。</p><p>当北极冷空气继续南下遇到南方更温暖潮湿空气时，就会迅速激发<b>“风暴炸弹”</b>这种威力巨大的强对流天气，会导致大气压在24小时内骤降。</p><p>由于冷暖空气激烈碰撞，强对流发生在水汽丰富的云团上方，便往往会带来灾难性的强风、暴风雪和强降雨。</p><p><b>应对及思考</b>为何超级寒潮频现？</p><p>此次灾害影响较大也与当地应对措施有关，据美联社报道，在美墨边境东段一些拉美难民较多的城镇防寒问题较为突出，因为这些城镇素来冬季气候温暖对突如其来的严寒缺乏准备。</p><p>而来自热带、行囊简单的拉美难民御寒能力又普遍低于美国本地人，美国东部一些大城市的应对也不甚理想，纽约州州长霍赫尔甚至称“<b>当地所有消防车都困在了雪中</b>”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35dae85634ea227e771ce2f7e19e009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>美国不少专家指出，2021年底至2022年初，北美也曾出现类似“风暴炸弹”天气。</p><p>过去两年间，北美出现冬季极其寒冷，夏季又空前炎热的极端天气，<b>这与“拉尼娜现象”较以往严重关系密切，而从深层次考虑则与全球气候变化影响有关。</b></p><p>在极端天气日益频繁的当下，人们在关注其影响的同时更需重视的是：人类社会应该如何携手应对气候变化影响就像那句人们常说的话一样——<b>不要等到那片雪花真的落在我们自己肩头的时候才意识到它与我们每个人都有关。</b></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1672063593783","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“史诗级”寒潮重创美国！“风暴炸弹”有多可怕？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“史诗级”寒潮重创美国！“风暴炸弹”有多可怕？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 22:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sZTVNtA9neFyTADpXPWI-Q><strong>中国气象</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：张宏伟这几天，被当地媒体称为“史诗级”的寒潮，给北美地区尤其是美国带来了“40年来最寒冷的圣诞节”。就连美国总统拜登都高声呼吁“这不是演习，不要以为这还是你们小时候下雪的日子”。那么这场寒潮到底有多可怕呢？到底有多冷？部分地区气温降至-40℃。当地时间上周五（12月23日）开始一场规模罕见的寒潮席卷了美国、加拿大大部地区。在美国东北部的纽约州伊利县布法罗市积雪已经厚达60厘米，伊利县官员说“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sZTVNtA9neFyTADpXPWI-Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb848510fe9e562307f78a13d6c7af0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sZTVNtA9neFyTADpXPWI-Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171674800","content_text":"作者：张宏伟这几天，被当地媒体称为“史诗级”的寒潮，给北美地区尤其是美国带来了“40年来最寒冷的圣诞节”。就连美国总统拜登都高声呼吁“这不是演习，不要以为这还是你们小时候下雪的日子”。那么这场寒潮到底有多可怕呢？到底有多冷？部分地区气温降至-40℃。当地时间上周五（12月23日）开始一场规模罕见的寒潮席卷了美国、加拿大大部地区。在美国东北部的纽约州伊利县布法罗市积雪已经厚达60厘米，伊利县官员说“当天的暴风雪可能是当地有史以来最猛烈的一次”。当地时间12月24日，全美多地仍然持续严寒，东北部宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡市预报最低气温为-13℃。打破1983年创下的圣诞节前夕低温纪录，而首都华盛顿的气温也创下1989年以来同日最低纪录。当地时间2022年12月24日，人们冒着严寒在美国芝加哥市中心购物这一天，东南部的佐治亚州及墨西哥湾沿岸得克萨斯州、路易斯安那州、亚拉巴马州和佛罗里达州都发布了低温预警。美国国家气象局表示，“建议”或“警报”级别的预警范围覆盖超过2.4亿，占美国人口约三分之二，是有史以来范围最广的之一。美国国家气象局25日称，除西南部加利福尼亚州等少数地区外，美国绝大多数地区气温下降至低于正常水平。甚至素来温暖的得克萨斯州乔治亚州和佛罗里达州也不例外。灾害影响有多大？交通、供电遭遇“大危机”。美联社等媒体报道称因“风暴炸弹”（Causes Bomb）带来的这场“至少10年未遇”的“史诗级”严寒和暴风雪给美国及加拿大的交通、能源、人员等造成严重影响。交通方面美国人的“洋春运”圣诞假期因这场寒潮变得一片混乱。12月22日至25日全美逾万个航班被迫取消或延误为此，西南航空、美国航空美联航和达美航空等美国主要航空公司都发布了全美各地“旅行豁免”，免除了旅客受恶劣天气影响造成的航班改签费。同时，加拿大数千个航班延误或取消，就连位于通常较温暖的西部维多利亚、温哥华等机场也未能“幸免”。陆上交通同样受到影响，北达科他、南达科他、俄克拉何马艾奥瓦等州报告道路结冰、暴风雪能见度几乎为零的情况。在加拿大人口最多的安大略省、魁北克省东部的大西洋省、新不伦瑞克省以及西部的不列颠哥伦比亚省等许多地区，也不同程度出现交通中断铁路运输延误等问题。路面上全部结冰，有美国网友表示，想要出门需要穿登山装备才能勉强行走能源供应方面，据美国一家监测供电状况的网站发布的数据，截至美国东部时间24日上午，寒潮导致超过170万居民和商业用户断电。一家总部位于宾夕法尼亚州覆盖美国东部约6500万人用电的电力公司表示：由于发电厂在寒冷的天气中难以运营，圣诞节假期其电网覆盖区域内许多地方不得不选择“轮流停电”。同时，因为停电得州的电费已经飙升了400%，这对于处在水深火热之中的美国民众而言无疑是又一重打击。暴雪让爱荷华州的农村都湮没在一片白色之中这场灾害也造成了人员伤亡，据美联社报道，全美多地共计至少18人因这次恶劣天气死亡，而美国全国广播公司统计的死亡数字则为23人死亡，原因包括能见度差、道路湿滑导致的车祸低温或生病无法及时获得救治等。什么引发了“史诗级”寒潮？“风暴炸弹”是个啥？美国和加拿大气象学家表示，此次席卷大半个北美的寒潮与来势汹汹的“风暴炸弹”有关，而其成因则较为复杂：最初在北极白雪皑皑的冰面上形成了一个空前强大的低气压随后，大气层中部和上部出现了强大且不稳定的急气流，这个巨大的“冷槽”自西北而东南迅速横扫了加拿大和美国的大部分地区。我国气象部门运用风云气象卫星等进行监测早在12月23日就指出“受北极高压影响加拿大西部的极寒气团沿落基山东麓南下将席卷美国本土造成北美大部降温”图为2022年12月22日FY-3D卫星真彩色图像风云气象卫星监测显示，2022年12月23日至25日，受极区冷空气南下的影响，北美等地出现强寒潮天气过程。图为2022年12月25日FY-3D卫星北美区域真彩色图像FY-3D气象卫星850hPa日平均温度监测显示，冷空气逐渐南压受其影响北美部分地区温度大幅降低，其中美国东北部降温较明显。图为2022年12月23日至25日北美区域FY-3D 850hPa日平均温度此外，美国一些地理学家指出，北美较大的山脉多是南北走向，如西部的落基山脉东部的阿巴拉契亚山脉都是如此，两大山脉之间是宽阔的低海拔高原和平原这种地形很难抵御大型冷空气的急袭。当北极冷空气继续南下遇到南方更温暖潮湿空气时，就会迅速激发“风暴炸弹”这种威力巨大的强对流天气，会导致大气压在24小时内骤降。由于冷暖空气激烈碰撞，强对流发生在水汽丰富的云团上方，便往往会带来灾难性的强风、暴风雪和强降雨。应对及思考为何超级寒潮频现？此次灾害影响较大也与当地应对措施有关，据美联社报道，在美墨边境东段一些拉美难民较多的城镇防寒问题较为突出，因为这些城镇素来冬季气候温暖对突如其来的严寒缺乏准备。而来自热带、行囊简单的拉美难民御寒能力又普遍低于美国本地人，美国东部一些大城市的应对也不甚理想，纽约州州长霍赫尔甚至称“当地所有消防车都困在了雪中”。美国不少专家指出，2021年底至2022年初，北美也曾出现类似“风暴炸弹”天气。过去两年间，北美出现冬季极其寒冷，夏季又空前炎热的极端天气，这与“拉尼娜现象”较以往严重关系密切，而从深层次考虑则与全球气候变化影响有关。在极端天气日益频繁的当下，人们在关注其影响的同时更需重视的是：人类社会应该如何携手应对气候变化影响就像那句人们常说的话一样——不要等到那片雪花真的落在我们自己肩头的时候才意识到它与我们每个人都有关。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":56,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925561558,"gmtCreate":1672067774474,"gmtModify":1676538629399,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85392063351835428b2f0b1b41a9e31d","width":"750","height":"1496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925561558","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925907310,"gmtCreate":1671895537431,"gmtModify":1676538607874,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/367fddcbe51b978e79ef32124f4ed3a3","width":"750","height":"1496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925907310","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922557102,"gmtCreate":1671808289006,"gmtModify":1676538597132,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$凯德商用新加坡信托(C38U.SI)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2d1b2c85d44c233d2e0d76148fa99b82","width":"750","height":"1496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922557102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926754512,"gmtCreate":1671637951436,"gmtModify":1676538568276,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926754512","repostId":"1130846671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130846671","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671634009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130846671?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-21 22:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"邮轮股强势上涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130846671","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月21日，邮轮股盘初大涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%，皇家加勒比邮轮涨超4%，挪威邮轮涨超3%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月21日，邮轮股盘初大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eca341daf46b92ece949cb29a836b1b4\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>邮轮股强势上涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n邮轮股强势上涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-21 22:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月21日，邮轮股盘初大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">皇家加勒比邮轮</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">挪威邮轮</a>涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eca341daf46b92ece949cb29a836b1b4\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6519a4fefaf5c27d84d40f62319661d4","relate_stocks":{"NCLH":"挪威邮轮","RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130846671","content_text":"12月21日，邮轮股盘初大涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%，皇家加勒比邮轮涨超4%，挪威邮轮涨超3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928485973,"gmtCreate":1671372439393,"gmtModify":1676538527113,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/402a2c0c95a6d30c1c2e2c41340351a2","width":"750","height":"1496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928485973","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928624725,"gmtCreate":1671270501567,"gmtModify":1676538518155,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8f4922e088921dcc3e9e09935e93554","width":"750","height":"1496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928624725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928624292,"gmtCreate":1671270485116,"gmtModify":1676538518148,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928624292","repostId":"1138158906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138158906","pubTimestamp":1671239512,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138158906?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-17 09:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"媒体：马斯克正寻找新投资者，平价转让推特股权","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138158906","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"银行一直无法为推特债务找到买家，并面临着大幅亏损的可能。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月16日周五，据媒体报道，马斯克按每股54.2美元的价格为推特寻找新的投资者，这也是马斯克当初收购并将推特私有化的价格。</p><p>据媒体援引两位知情人士的话说，马斯克家族办公室的董事总经理正在为推特寻找新的股权投资者，因为用户和广告商正在逃离，此外债务偿付也迫在眉睫。</p><p>知情人士称，马斯克的私人经理Jared Birchall本周联系了潜在投资者，以54.2美元的价格出售推特的股票，这一价格与马斯克在10月份为将公司私有化而支付的价格相同。</p><p>媒体称，一份文件显示：</p><blockquote>最近几周，我们收到了大量投资推特的请求。因此，我们很高兴地宣布以原价和条款对普通股进行后续股权发行，目标是年底完成交易。</blockquote><p>特斯拉投资者Ross Gerber表示，他在马斯克最初收购推特时投入了不到100万美元，他证实周四晚间有人与他联系，以440亿美元的估值对推特进行另一轮融资。</p><p>Gerber称正在考虑，但想更清楚地了解计划是什么：</p><blockquote>有人可能会说马斯克在推特创造了价值或摧毁了价值，在这一点上很难说。</blockquote><p>媒体分析称，要求投资者以原价购买一个价值正在迅速崩溃的资产将是一个艰难的推销，马斯克可能有拯救推特和对该社交媒体进行清理的想法，但他已经没有办法做到这一点了。</p><p>马斯克承担了130亿美元的债务来完成10月份的私有化交易，每年将支付约10亿美元的利息。这比推特去年产生的收入还多，而如今，随着广告商的纷纷撤离和公司内部的大幅调整，推特在今年可能很难赚到和去年一样多的收入。</p><p>马斯克自己手头现在也并不宽裕。 周三，他又出售了价值36亿美元的特斯拉股票，市场分析，这大概是为了向推特注入更多股权，以减轻债务负担。这已经是他在4月表达有意买下推特以来，第三次卖出特斯拉股票了。</p><p>马斯克接手推特以来，对推特的改革可谓大刀阔斧，不仅辞退了整个高管团队，让他自己旗下的公司高管接管推特，把自己任命为推特CEO，还裁掉、逼退了推特一大半的员工。</p><p>马斯克在推特内容策略上的调整，吓跑了不少此前和推特有稳定合作的广告商；他推出的8美元实名认证计划也屡遭不顺，用户对推特的种种质疑越来越多。</p><p>如今推特到底有多落魄？已经停掉员工食堂福利的推特，甚至已经开始在二手交易平台上出售家具和电脑。</p><p>市场对马斯克专注于推特的做法也不买单。在马斯克旗下的众多公司中，唯有特斯拉已经产生了稳定的收入和现金流，而马斯克现在几乎全身心放在推特上，投资者越来越担忧特斯拉的前景，尤其是在各大车厂都在进军新能源车领域、特斯拉在行业内和供应链中话语权越来越弱的情况下。</p><p>面对推特的困境，近日有媒体援引知情人士的话说，为马斯克收购推特提供银团贷款的投行们，打算对这笔交易进行再融资，他们希望将目前手上持有的对推特的债权，更换成对特斯拉股票的保证金贷款，马斯克或将亲自负责偿还这些贷款。</p><p>知情人士说，保证金贷款是摩根士丹利领导的银行集团和马斯克的顾问讨论的几种选择之一，目的是减轻马斯克在10月份用来收购推特的130亿美元债务负担。据媒体报道，马斯克的杠杆融资使得推特和投行背负的债权和亏损都极大，并且马斯克接管推特后，广告商的严重流失导致偿还债务的能力进一步降低，投行于是想转向再融资。</p><p>有媒体报道称，银行一直无法为推特债务找到买家，并面临着大幅亏损的可能。与此同时，马斯克在扭转已经陷入困境的推特财务状况方面，也面临着越来越大的压力。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>媒体：马斯克正寻找新投资者，平价转让推特股权</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n媒体：马斯克正寻找新投资者，平价转让推特股权\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-17 09:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677707><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月16日周五，据媒体报道，马斯克按每股54.2美元的价格为推特寻找新的投资者，这也是马斯克当初收购并将推特私有化的价格。据媒体援引两位知情人士的话说，马斯克家族办公室的董事总经理正在为推特寻找新的股权投资者，因为用户和广告商正在逃离，此外债务偿付也迫在眉睫。知情人士称，马斯克的私人经理Jared Birchall本周联系了潜在投资者，以54.2美元的价格出售推特的股票，这一价格与马斯克在10...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677707\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b2a26b58b3394034a9ccc67a7944b5","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677707","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1138158906","content_text":"12月16日周五，据媒体报道，马斯克按每股54.2美元的价格为推特寻找新的投资者，这也是马斯克当初收购并将推特私有化的价格。据媒体援引两位知情人士的话说，马斯克家族办公室的董事总经理正在为推特寻找新的股权投资者，因为用户和广告商正在逃离，此外债务偿付也迫在眉睫。知情人士称，马斯克的私人经理Jared Birchall本周联系了潜在投资者，以54.2美元的价格出售推特的股票，这一价格与马斯克在10月份为将公司私有化而支付的价格相同。媒体称，一份文件显示：最近几周，我们收到了大量投资推特的请求。因此，我们很高兴地宣布以原价和条款对普通股进行后续股权发行，目标是年底完成交易。特斯拉投资者Ross Gerber表示，他在马斯克最初收购推特时投入了不到100万美元，他证实周四晚间有人与他联系，以440亿美元的估值对推特进行另一轮融资。Gerber称正在考虑，但想更清楚地了解计划是什么：有人可能会说马斯克在推特创造了价值或摧毁了价值，在这一点上很难说。媒体分析称，要求投资者以原价购买一个价值正在迅速崩溃的资产将是一个艰难的推销，马斯克可能有拯救推特和对该社交媒体进行清理的想法，但他已经没有办法做到这一点了。马斯克承担了130亿美元的债务来完成10月份的私有化交易，每年将支付约10亿美元的利息。这比推特去年产生的收入还多，而如今，随着广告商的纷纷撤离和公司内部的大幅调整，推特在今年可能很难赚到和去年一样多的收入。马斯克自己手头现在也并不宽裕。 周三，他又出售了价值36亿美元的特斯拉股票，市场分析，这大概是为了向推特注入更多股权，以减轻债务负担。这已经是他在4月表达有意买下推特以来，第三次卖出特斯拉股票了。马斯克接手推特以来，对推特的改革可谓大刀阔斧，不仅辞退了整个高管团队，让他自己旗下的公司高管接管推特，把自己任命为推特CEO，还裁掉、逼退了推特一大半的员工。马斯克在推特内容策略上的调整，吓跑了不少此前和推特有稳定合作的广告商；他推出的8美元实名认证计划也屡遭不顺，用户对推特的种种质疑越来越多。如今推特到底有多落魄？已经停掉员工食堂福利的推特，甚至已经开始在二手交易平台上出售家具和电脑。市场对马斯克专注于推特的做法也不买单。在马斯克旗下的众多公司中，唯有特斯拉已经产生了稳定的收入和现金流，而马斯克现在几乎全身心放在推特上，投资者越来越担忧特斯拉的前景，尤其是在各大车厂都在进军新能源车领域、特斯拉在行业内和供应链中话语权越来越弱的情况下。面对推特的困境，近日有媒体援引知情人士的话说，为马斯克收购推特提供银团贷款的投行们，打算对这笔交易进行再融资，他们希望将目前手上持有的对推特的债权，更换成对特斯拉股票的保证金贷款，马斯克或将亲自负责偿还这些贷款。知情人士说，保证金贷款是摩根士丹利领导的银行集团和马斯克的顾问讨论的几种选择之一，目的是减轻马斯克在10月份用来收购推特的130亿美元债务负担。据媒体报道，马斯克的杠杆融资使得推特和投行背负的债权和亏损都极大，并且马斯克接管推特后，广告商的严重流失导致偿还债务的能力进一步降低，投行于是想转向再融资。有媒体报道称，银行一直无法为推特债务找到买家，并面临着大幅亏损的可能。与此同时，马斯克在扭转已经陷入困境的推特财务状况方面，也面临着越来越大的压力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":56,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921467186,"gmtCreate":1671114919145,"gmtModify":1676538492771,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e7f5d893b431925163847862f0de9e08","width":"750","height":"1464"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921467186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921825268,"gmtCreate":1671030007754,"gmtModify":1676538478542,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921825268","repostId":"1194826097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194826097","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671029790,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194826097?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-14 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国医药：将负责辉瑞新冠特效药在中国大陆市场的进口和经销","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194826097","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国医药：与辉瑞公司签订协议，将负责辉瑞公司新冠病毒治疗药物奈玛特韦片/利托那韦片(Paxlovid)在中国大陆市场的进口和经销。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">中国医药</a>：与辉瑞公司签订协议，将负责辉瑞公司新冠病毒治疗药物奈玛特韦片/利托那韦片(Paxlovid)在中国大陆市场的进口和经销。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239b68a7ee5fe1d0b55436ef89df6e1a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国医药：将负责辉瑞新冠特效药在中国大陆市场的进口和经销</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国医药：将负责辉瑞新冠特效药在中国大陆市场的进口和经销\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-14 22:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">中国医药</a>：与辉瑞公司签订协议，将负责辉瑞公司新冠病毒治疗药物奈玛特韦片/利托那韦片(Paxlovid)在中国大陆市场的进口和经销。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239b68a7ee5fe1d0b55436ef89df6e1a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86caee6b0aec6bd2902dea91a4ecb3e5","relate_stocks":{"600056":"中国医药","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194826097","content_text":"中国医药：与辉瑞公司签订协议，将负责辉瑞公司新冠病毒治疗药物奈玛特韦片/利托那韦片(Paxlovid)在中国大陆市场的进口和经销。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9033007074,"gmtCreate":1646144673264,"gmtModify":1676534095621,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033007074","repostId":"1126282522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097453618,"gmtCreate":1645539762955,"gmtModify":1676534037358,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097453618","repostId":"2213998229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910893935,"gmtCreate":1663590183828,"gmtModify":1676537296744,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910893935","repostId":"1107423216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107423216","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663588824,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107423216?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 20:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pre-Bell｜U.S. Futures Fall Nearly 1%; One Company Shares Jump 24%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107423216","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the dec","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the declines as investors worried that another massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.</p><p>Heavyweights Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3f906f466b5a6621bd631d8c382cb6\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Focus will also be on new economic projections, due to be published alongside the policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday.</p><p>The CBOE volatility index(.VIX), also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, rose to 27.88 points, inching closer to a more than two-month high.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 251 points, or 0.81%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 33.25 points, or 0.85%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.91%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de765ca7e9b944b90549124f0b2d448b\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></p><p><b>AutoZone (AZO)</b> – AutoZone gained 2.3% in premarket action after the auto parts retailer reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. AutoZone&#39;s same-store sales rose 6.2% compared to a year ago, twice what analysts had predicted amid continued strength in its commercial business.</p><p><b>Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)</b> – Take-Two shares slid 5.6% in the premarket after Bloomberg reported that a hacker released gameplay from its upcoming Grand Theft Auto IV game online. It&#39;s said to be one of the biggest leaks in gaming history.</p><p><b>bluebird bio (BLUE)</b> – bluebird bio rallied 6.6% in premarket trading after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company&#39;s gene therapy for a rare and lethal brain disease in children.</p><p><b>Wix (WIX)</b> – Wix shares jumped 6% in premarket action after activist investor Starboard Value revealed a 9% stake in the web development platform company.</p><p><b>Coinbase (COIN)</b> – Coinbase fell 4.8% in the premarket, as multimonth lows for cryptocurrencies weigh on sentiment for the crypto exchange operator and other crypto-related stocks. <b>MicroStrategy (MSTR) </b>– the business analytics company which has billions in bitcoin on its balance sheet – also fell, down 5%.</p><p><b>FedEx (FDX)</b> – FedEx remains on watch after plunging 21.4% in Friday&#39;s trading following an earnings warning, its biggest-ever one-day decline.</p><p><b>NCR (NCR)</b> – NCR slid another 2.2% in the premarket on top of a 20.3% plunge Friday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to &#34;equal-weight&#34; from &#34;overweight.&#34; The Friday decline followed news that NCR would separate into two separate companies, and Morgan Stanley said any unlocking of value from that move may take a long time to play out.</p><p><b>Adobe (ADBE)</b> – Wells Fargo downgraded the software company&#39;s stock to &#34;equal weight&#34; from &#34;overweight,&#34; saying Adobe&#39;s planned acquisition of online design firm Figma is a good product fit but that the $20 billion price tag leaves little room for error. Adobe fell 1.3% in premarket trading after falling 16.8% last Thursday and another 3.1% on Friday.</p><p><b>Theravance Biopharma (TBPH)</b> – Theravance has initiated a $250 million stock buyback program. As part of that program, it will buy the 9.6 million shares held by pharmaceutical companyGSK(GSK). Theravance added 3.2% in the premarket.</p><p><b>KnowBe4 (KNBE)</b> – KnowBe4, Inc today confirmed the receipt of a non-binding proposal from Vista Equity Partners (“Vista”) to acquire all outstanding shares of the Company for $24 per share in cash. The proposal represents a 39% premium to KnowBe4’s closing price on September 16, 2022. KnowBe4 shares jumped 24.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Market News</b></p><p><b>Britain Holds State Funeral for Queen Elizabeth II</b></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II&#39;s state funeral took place at Westminster Abbey as Britain concludes its farewell to its longest-serving monarch.</p><p>The funeral began at 6 a.m. ET and included readings by Prime Minister Liz Truss and the secretary general of the Commonwealth, Patricia Scotland. The Archbishop of Canterbury used his sermon to praise the queen&#39;s servant leadership.</p><p>The service was attended by a host of world leaders, including President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Emperor Naruhito.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Falls Below $19,000 As Cryptos Creak Under Rate Hike Risk</b></p><p>Cryptocurrencies fell to fresh lows on Monday on regulatory concerns and as investors globally turned shy on risky assets with interest rate rises looming around the world.</p><p>Bitcoin , the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, fell about 5% to a three-month low of $18,387.</p><p>Ether , the second largest cryptocurrency, dropped 3% to a two-month low of $1,285 and is down more than 10% in the last 24 hours. Most other smaller tokens were deeper in the red.</p><p><b>VW Prices Porsche IPO, Valuing Car Maker at Up to $78 Billion</b></p><p>Porsche AG shares will begin trading on Sept. 29 in one of the largest European public listings in years, raising up to $9.4 billion and valuing the sports car maker at as much as $78 billion.</p><p>Porsche’s parent, German car giant Volkswagen AG, priced the public offering of preferred stock in line with average analyst expectations. Combined with a private sale of Porsche ordinary stock to VW’s largest investor, Porsche Automobil Holding SE, the sale of 25% of Porsche could raise €19.5 billion for VW, the equivalent of $19.5 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-Bell｜U.S. Futures Fall Nearly 1%; One Company Shares Jump 24%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-Bell｜U.S. Futures Fall Nearly 1%; One Company Shares Jump 24%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-19 20:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the declines as investors worried that another massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.</p><p>Heavyweights Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3f906f466b5a6621bd631d8c382cb6\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Focus will also be on new economic projections, due to be published alongside the policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday.</p><p>The CBOE volatility index(.VIX), also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, rose to 27.88 points, inching closer to a more than two-month high.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 251 points, or 0.81%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 33.25 points, or 0.85%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.91%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de765ca7e9b944b90549124f0b2d448b\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></p><p><b>AutoZone (AZO)</b> – AutoZone gained 2.3% in premarket action after the auto parts retailer reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. AutoZone&#39;s same-store sales rose 6.2% compared to a year ago, twice what analysts had predicted amid continued strength in its commercial business.</p><p><b>Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)</b> – Take-Two shares slid 5.6% in the premarket after Bloomberg reported that a hacker released gameplay from its upcoming Grand Theft Auto IV game online. It&#39;s said to be one of the biggest leaks in gaming history.</p><p><b>bluebird bio (BLUE)</b> – bluebird bio rallied 6.6% in premarket trading after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company&#39;s gene therapy for a rare and lethal brain disease in children.</p><p><b>Wix (WIX)</b> – Wix shares jumped 6% in premarket action after activist investor Starboard Value revealed a 9% stake in the web development platform company.</p><p><b>Coinbase (COIN)</b> – Coinbase fell 4.8% in the premarket, as multimonth lows for cryptocurrencies weigh on sentiment for the crypto exchange operator and other crypto-related stocks. <b>MicroStrategy (MSTR) </b>– the business analytics company which has billions in bitcoin on its balance sheet – also fell, down 5%.</p><p><b>FedEx (FDX)</b> – FedEx remains on watch after plunging 21.4% in Friday&#39;s trading following an earnings warning, its biggest-ever one-day decline.</p><p><b>NCR (NCR)</b> – NCR slid another 2.2% in the premarket on top of a 20.3% plunge Friday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to &#34;equal-weight&#34; from &#34;overweight.&#34; The Friday decline followed news that NCR would separate into two separate companies, and Morgan Stanley said any unlocking of value from that move may take a long time to play out.</p><p><b>Adobe (ADBE)</b> – Wells Fargo downgraded the software company&#39;s stock to &#34;equal weight&#34; from &#34;overweight,&#34; saying Adobe&#39;s planned acquisition of online design firm Figma is a good product fit but that the $20 billion price tag leaves little room for error. Adobe fell 1.3% in premarket trading after falling 16.8% last Thursday and another 3.1% on Friday.</p><p><b>Theravance Biopharma (TBPH)</b> – Theravance has initiated a $250 million stock buyback program. As part of that program, it will buy the 9.6 million shares held by pharmaceutical companyGSK(GSK). Theravance added 3.2% in the premarket.</p><p><b>KnowBe4 (KNBE)</b> – KnowBe4, Inc today confirmed the receipt of a non-binding proposal from Vista Equity Partners (“Vista”) to acquire all outstanding shares of the Company for $24 per share in cash. The proposal represents a 39% premium to KnowBe4’s closing price on September 16, 2022. KnowBe4 shares jumped 24.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Market News</b></p><p><b>Britain Holds State Funeral for Queen Elizabeth II</b></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II&#39;s state funeral took place at Westminster Abbey as Britain concludes its farewell to its longest-serving monarch.</p><p>The funeral began at 6 a.m. ET and included readings by Prime Minister Liz Truss and the secretary general of the Commonwealth, Patricia Scotland. The Archbishop of Canterbury used his sermon to praise the queen&#39;s servant leadership.</p><p>The service was attended by a host of world leaders, including President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Emperor Naruhito.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Falls Below $19,000 As Cryptos Creak Under Rate Hike Risk</b></p><p>Cryptocurrencies fell to fresh lows on Monday on regulatory concerns and as investors globally turned shy on risky assets with interest rate rises looming around the world.</p><p>Bitcoin , the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, fell about 5% to a three-month low of $18,387.</p><p>Ether , the second largest cryptocurrency, dropped 3% to a two-month low of $1,285 and is down more than 10% in the last 24 hours. Most other smaller tokens were deeper in the red.</p><p><b>VW Prices Porsche IPO, Valuing Car Maker at Up to $78 Billion</b></p><p>Porsche AG shares will begin trading on Sept. 29 in one of the largest European public listings in years, raising up to $9.4 billion and valuing the sports car maker at as much as $78 billion.</p><p>Porsche’s parent, German car giant Volkswagen AG, priced the public offering of preferred stock in line with average analyst expectations. Combined with a private sale of Porsche ordinary stock to VW’s largest investor, Porsche Automobil Holding SE, the sale of 25% of Porsche could raise €19.5 billion for VW, the equivalent of $19.5 billion.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TBPH":"Theravance Biopharma Inc.","WIX":"Wix.Com Ltd","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","MSTR":"MicroStrategy Incorporated","FDX":"联邦快递","KNBE":"KnowBe4, Inc.","ADBE":"Adobe",".DJI":"道琼斯","TTWO":"Take-Two Interactive Software","AZO":"汽车地带","BLUE":"bluebird bio Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107423216","content_text":"Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the declines as investors worried that another massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.Heavyweights Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell about 1% in premarket trading.Focus will also be on new economic projections, due to be published alongside the policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday.The CBOE volatility index(.VIX), also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to 27.88 points, inching closer to a more than two-month high.Market SnapshotAt 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 251 points, or 0.81%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 33.25 points, or 0.85%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.91%.Pre-Market MoversAutoZone (AZO) – AutoZone gained 2.3% in premarket action after the auto parts retailer reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. AutoZone's same-store sales rose 6.2% compared to a year ago, twice what analysts had predicted amid continued strength in its commercial business.Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) – Take-Two shares slid 5.6% in the premarket after Bloomberg reported that a hacker released gameplay from its upcoming Grand Theft Auto IV game online. It's said to be one of the biggest leaks in gaming history.bluebird bio (BLUE) – bluebird bio rallied 6.6% in premarket trading after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company's gene therapy for a rare and lethal brain disease in children.Wix (WIX) – Wix shares jumped 6% in premarket action after activist investor Starboard Value revealed a 9% stake in the web development platform company.Coinbase (COIN) – Coinbase fell 4.8% in the premarket, as multimonth lows for cryptocurrencies weigh on sentiment for the crypto exchange operator and other crypto-related stocks. MicroStrategy (MSTR) – the business analytics company which has billions in bitcoin on its balance sheet – also fell, down 5%.FedEx (FDX) – FedEx remains on watch after plunging 21.4% in Friday's trading following an earnings warning, its biggest-ever one-day decline.NCR (NCR) – NCR slid another 2.2% in the premarket on top of a 20.3% plunge Friday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to \"equal-weight\" from \"overweight.\" The Friday decline followed news that NCR would separate into two separate companies, and Morgan Stanley said any unlocking of value from that move may take a long time to play out.Adobe (ADBE) – Wells Fargo downgraded the software company's stock to \"equal weight\" from \"overweight,\" saying Adobe's planned acquisition of online design firm Figma is a good product fit but that the $20 billion price tag leaves little room for error. Adobe fell 1.3% in premarket trading after falling 16.8% last Thursday and another 3.1% on Friday.Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) – Theravance has initiated a $250 million stock buyback program. As part of that program, it will buy the 9.6 million shares held by pharmaceutical companyGSK(GSK). Theravance added 3.2% in the premarket.KnowBe4 (KNBE) – KnowBe4, Inc today confirmed the receipt of a non-binding proposal from Vista Equity Partners (“Vista”) to acquire all outstanding shares of the Company for $24 per share in cash. The proposal represents a 39% premium to KnowBe4’s closing price on September 16, 2022. KnowBe4 shares jumped 24.3% in premarket trading.Market NewsBritain Holds State Funeral for Queen Elizabeth IIQueen Elizabeth II's state funeral took place at Westminster Abbey as Britain concludes its farewell to its longest-serving monarch.The funeral began at 6 a.m. ET and included readings by Prime Minister Liz Truss and the secretary general of the Commonwealth, Patricia Scotland. The Archbishop of Canterbury used his sermon to praise the queen's servant leadership.The service was attended by a host of world leaders, including President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Emperor Naruhito.Bitcoin Falls Below $19,000 As Cryptos Creak Under Rate Hike RiskCryptocurrencies fell to fresh lows on Monday on regulatory concerns and as investors globally turned shy on risky assets with interest rate rises looming around the world.Bitcoin , the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, fell about 5% to a three-month low of $18,387.Ether , the second largest cryptocurrency, dropped 3% to a two-month low of $1,285 and is down more than 10% in the last 24 hours. Most other smaller tokens were deeper in the red.VW Prices Porsche IPO, Valuing Car Maker at Up to $78 BillionPorsche AG shares will begin trading on Sept. 29 in one of the largest European public listings in years, raising up to $9.4 billion and valuing the sports car maker at as much as $78 billion.Porsche’s parent, German car giant Volkswagen AG, priced the public offering of preferred stock in line with average analyst expectations. Combined with a private sale of Porsche ordinary stock to VW’s largest investor, Porsche Automobil Holding SE, the sale of 25% of Porsche could raise €19.5 billion for VW, the equivalent of $19.5 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049405478,"gmtCreate":1655822617794,"gmtModify":1676535712016,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049405478","repostId":"2245827432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2245827432","pubTimestamp":1655825437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2245827432?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-21 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2245827432","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here's what Tesla's potential upcoming split means for investors.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Tesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.</li><li>The stock&#39;s valuation continues to get more attractive.</li><li>A recession could hurt Tesla&#39;s young competition.</li></ul><p>Electric-vehicle company <b>Tesla</b> recently filed a document revealing plans for a 3-for-1 stock split.</p><p>The company last split its stock in August 2020, and shares have risen 30% since then. So if you&#39;re planning to invest in Tesla, should you buy the stock now or wait until the split takes place, which needs approval from shareholders at the company&#39;s annual shareholder meeting on August 4?</p><p>The answer may surprise you; roll up your sleeves and dive in.</p><p><b>What a stock split means for investors</b></p><p>First, it is essential to know what a stock split is and what it means for investors. A stock split is when a company increases its existing total share count by a specific ratio to lower its share price. The important thing to note is the company&#39;s total market capitalization remains unchanged strictly based on the stock split.</p><p>For example, Tesla&#39;s proposed 3-for-1 split means the automaker is tripling the number of outstanding shares on the market. After the split, investors will own three shares for every share they held before the split.</p><p>If all else remains equal, the share price will fall in proportion, so if Tesla trades at $999 per share before the split, investors will have three shares at $333 each after the split.</p><p>The crucial takeaway is that a stock split doesn&#39;t make the company any more valuable; nothing fundamentally changes about the stock. The one share trading at $999 is worth the same as three shares trading at $333.</p><p>Stock splits make shares more affordable, especially for retail investors. Companies sometimes split their stock to appeal to the retail crowd; adding more shares also boosts trading volume, meaning the stock is easier to buy and sell on a brokerage.</p><p>Asking whether to buy a stock before or after a stock split is a trick question: If a split doesn&#39;t fundamentally change a stock, it shouldn&#39;t matter whether you buy now or wait. However, you can base your buying or selling of Tesla on other factors.</p><p><b>The stock is near its lowest valuation</b></p><p>Tesla began turning a bottom-line profit in 2020, so investors can value the stock with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Its P/E ratio started high when it first turned profitable, earnings per share (EPS) are now quickly growing, and the stock&#39;s valuation is coming down. The current P/E of 89 is its lowest on record.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac0798b0c3ec9cfba2d43139124b6d4\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>Tesla still commands a considerable premium over legacy automotive companies like <b>Ford</b> and <b>General Motors</b>, which trade at a P/E of 4 and 5, respectively. However, Tesla&#39;s bottom line is swelling; analysts expect 30% annual EPS growth over the next three to five years, compared to just 3% for Ford and 10% for General Motors.</p><p>It seems that Tesla deserves the premium valuation it has, though the degree of that premium is up for debate. Nevertheless, if the company can grow like analysts believe it can, long-term investors could see the stock grow into its valuation over time.</p><p><b>A tough economy could hurt competitors</b></p><p>Tesla&#39;s profitability also comes at a crucial time; inflation is raging, supply chains are hurting manufacturers worldwide, and the economy could enter a recession. Mass-producing cars isn&#39;t easy, and Elon Musk has openly talked about how increasing Model 3 production nearly bankrupted his company.</p><p>A problematic economic backdrop could spell trouble for upstart competitors like <b>Lucid Group</b> and <b>Rivian Automotive</b>, which still burn significant amounts of cash. Meanwhile, Tesla is generating billions in free cash flow and sitting on $18 billion in cash on the balance sheet against just $3 billion in debt.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3025a3cedebec024cae445bbfcb48f55\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>Rivian has $16 billion in cash from IPO proceeds, while Lucid has $5 billion. This cash will buy them time, but both are trying to build more vehicles faster, which could worsen their cash burn.</p><p>A recession wouldn&#39;t help anyone, but harsh operating conditions can become a game of survival, and it&#39;s not clear that any automotive company is as financially sound right now as Tesla is.</p><p><b>Wrapping up</b></p><p>A stock split can grab headlines, but investors who buy Tesla stock should do so because of its growth and profitability. The stock could go lower over the short term, and nobody knows when a bottom might occur.</p><p>Approaching your investments with a long time horizon will give a company&#39;s fundamentals the best chance to dictate your investment returns. Good companies tend to perform well over time. You can also use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to slowly buy shares, blending your cost into an average that isn&#39;t too high or too low.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSTesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.The stock's valuation continues to get more attractive.A recession could hurt Tesla's young competition.Electric-vehicle company Tesla recently filed a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2245827432","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.The stock's valuation continues to get more attractive.A recession could hurt Tesla's young competition.Electric-vehicle company Tesla recently filed a document revealing plans for a 3-for-1 stock split.The company last split its stock in August 2020, and shares have risen 30% since then. So if you're planning to invest in Tesla, should you buy the stock now or wait until the split takes place, which needs approval from shareholders at the company's annual shareholder meeting on August 4?The answer may surprise you; roll up your sleeves and dive in.What a stock split means for investorsFirst, it is essential to know what a stock split is and what it means for investors. A stock split is when a company increases its existing total share count by a specific ratio to lower its share price. The important thing to note is the company's total market capitalization remains unchanged strictly based on the stock split.For example, Tesla's proposed 3-for-1 split means the automaker is tripling the number of outstanding shares on the market. After the split, investors will own three shares for every share they held before the split.If all else remains equal, the share price will fall in proportion, so if Tesla trades at $999 per share before the split, investors will have three shares at $333 each after the split.The crucial takeaway is that a stock split doesn't make the company any more valuable; nothing fundamentally changes about the stock. The one share trading at $999 is worth the same as three shares trading at $333.Stock splits make shares more affordable, especially for retail investors. Companies sometimes split their stock to appeal to the retail crowd; adding more shares also boosts trading volume, meaning the stock is easier to buy and sell on a brokerage.Asking whether to buy a stock before or after a stock split is a trick question: If a split doesn't fundamentally change a stock, it shouldn't matter whether you buy now or wait. However, you can base your buying or selling of Tesla on other factors.The stock is near its lowest valuationTesla began turning a bottom-line profit in 2020, so investors can value the stock with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Its P/E ratio started high when it first turned profitable, earnings per share (EPS) are now quickly growing, and the stock's valuation is coming down. The current P/E of 89 is its lowest on record.Data by YCharts.Tesla still commands a considerable premium over legacy automotive companies like Ford and General Motors, which trade at a P/E of 4 and 5, respectively. However, Tesla's bottom line is swelling; analysts expect 30% annual EPS growth over the next three to five years, compared to just 3% for Ford and 10% for General Motors.It seems that Tesla deserves the premium valuation it has, though the degree of that premium is up for debate. Nevertheless, if the company can grow like analysts believe it can, long-term investors could see the stock grow into its valuation over time.A tough economy could hurt competitorsTesla's profitability also comes at a crucial time; inflation is raging, supply chains are hurting manufacturers worldwide, and the economy could enter a recession. Mass-producing cars isn't easy, and Elon Musk has openly talked about how increasing Model 3 production nearly bankrupted his company.A problematic economic backdrop could spell trouble for upstart competitors like Lucid Group and Rivian Automotive, which still burn significant amounts of cash. Meanwhile, Tesla is generating billions in free cash flow and sitting on $18 billion in cash on the balance sheet against just $3 billion in debt.Data by YCharts.Rivian has $16 billion in cash from IPO proceeds, while Lucid has $5 billion. This cash will buy them time, but both are trying to build more vehicles faster, which could worsen their cash burn.A recession wouldn't help anyone, but harsh operating conditions can become a game of survival, and it's not clear that any automotive company is as financially sound right now as Tesla is.Wrapping upA stock split can grab headlines, but investors who buy Tesla stock should do so because of its growth and profitability. The stock could go lower over the short term, and nobody knows when a bottom might occur.Approaching your investments with a long time horizon will give a company's fundamentals the best chance to dictate your investment returns. Good companies tend to perform well over time. You can also use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to slowly buy shares, blending your cost into an average that isn't too high or too low.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091035593,"gmtCreate":1643728734819,"gmtModify":1676533849359,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091035593","repostId":"1130050232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130050232","pubTimestamp":1643720363,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130050232?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 20:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股新春“猛虎变喵喵”？历史数据：还能涨回来！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130050232","media":"第一财经","summary":"在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里，标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%，后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期，道指收跌3","content":"<div>\n<p>在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里，标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%，后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期，道指收跌3.3%，为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅，追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈，加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期，俨然已成横于美股上行途中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股新春“猛虎变喵喵”？历史数据：还能涨回来！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股新春“猛虎变喵喵”？历史数据：还能涨回来！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-01 20:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里，标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%，后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期，道指收跌3.3%，为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅，追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈，加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期，俨然已成横于美股上行途中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130050232","content_text":"在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里，标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%，后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期，道指收跌3.3%，为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅，追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈，加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期，俨然已成横于美股上行途中的重重大山。标普500指数的11个板块中，除能源股逆势上行外，均在新年出现回落。开年糟糕，全年躺到？开年走低并非好兆头，毕竟华尔街素有“1月晴雨表”之说，所谓“一月如此，全年亦如此”。据股票交易者年鉴（Stock Trader's Almanac）的统计数据，自1950年以来，美股股指1月表现“大概率”能预测出年内剩余月份的涨跌态势，准确率高达84.5%。数十年间，仅出现过12次明显预测差错。在股指跌幅明显时，数据预测更令人沮丧。据道琼斯市场数据（Dow Jones Market Data）的统计，自1957年以来，当标普500指数在1月份下挫幅度达5%及以上时，当年剩余月份的平均累计涨幅仅为2.7%。需要指出的是，伴随全球“黑天鹅”事件频发，近年来“1月晴雨表”的预报准确性有待观察。2020年和2021年标普500指数在1月分别下挫0.16%和1.11%，同年股指累计大涨16.26%和26.89%。通胀重压下，美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期成为近期美股震荡加剧的主要推手。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具（Fed Watch Tool）显示，交易员预测年内加息100个基点的概率已升至92.1%。要知道，1个月前该预测概率仅为34.5%。目前，对今年加息125个基点和150个基点的概率预测已分别升至69.9%和35.7%。交易员预测年内加息100个基点概率升至92.1% （来源：芝商所美联储观察工具）美国银行的首席经济学家哈里斯（Ethan Harris）将今年美国国内生产总值（GDP）增速从4%下调至3.6%，并预计通胀水平在今年底前仍将高于3%。该行预测，美联储将自3月起，在年内剩余的每一次货币政策会议上加息25个基点，当年共计加息7次（175个基点），到2023年底前，联邦基金利率将达到2.75%~3.00%，从而抑制通胀并减缓增长。周一，三位美联储高官就货币政策路径发表看法。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）称，在打击通胀方面，美联储“完全没有落后”，并强调加息应是“渐进的”。与此同时，堪萨斯城联储主席埃斯特·乔治（Esther George）认为，大幅缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，有助于缓解美联储在短期激进加息的紧迫性。里士满联储主席托马斯·巴金（Thomas Barkin）则表示，“加息受到商界欢迎”，其步伐取决于经济数据。在刚刚过去的周末，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）在接受英媒采访时表示，如果通胀居高不下，美联储可能会将加息幅度扩大至50个基点。他同时重申，目前仍维持今年加息3次，每次25个基点的预期不变。多数回调都是趁低吸纳的好时机？历史数据显示，标普500指数平均每年有3次超5%或以上的回调，每年一次10%以上的回调。在全年上涨的年份中，标普500指数平均最大回调幅度达11%。鉴于美股自2020年3月的暴跌反弹至今，去年仅遭遇一次约5%的回调，券商LPL Financial的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）认为：“回调时机已至。”高盛团队的统计数据显示，自1950年以来，在非经济衰退期间出现的21次盘整中（高位回落超10%），标普500指数平均回调幅度达15%。值得庆幸的是，多数回调都被证实是趁低吸纳的好时机。自1950年以来，标普500指数经历的33次盘整中，平均历时约5个月，峰谷跌幅达18%。但是，若投资者在股指较高位回落10%时入市，此后12个月的平均回报率达15%。其中，最大的区别是美国经济是否进入衰退。高盛策略师大卫·科斯汀（David Kostin）的团队在报告中表示：“除非经济进入衰退，否则盘整很少会变成熊市。”美联储加息、中期选举左右走势事实上，历史数据表明在加息周期中，美股素来表现良好。据Truist联席首席投资官基思·勒纳 (Keith Lerner) 统计，自1950年代以来的12次美联储加息周期中，美股年均增幅达9%，其中11次实现了正回报。唯一的例外发生在1972~1974 年间，即经济危机期间。券商LPL Financial统计显示，自1980年以来标普500指数在所有8次加息周期中均实现上涨。其中，首次加息后6个月平均涨幅7.5%，12个月的平均涨幅10.8%。根据彭博汇编的数据，标普500指数年末点位预测平均值为4982点，较1月末收盘价4515点仍有10.34%的上浮空间。更长期而言，形势甚至更为乐观。LPL Financial的测算发现，美联储首次加息通常发生于经济周期的中早期阶段，此后美股牛市仍能持续约40个月。事实上，首次加息后至牛市见顶前，股指的平均涨幅达67%。“这意味着在下一次熊市来临前，标普500指数有望攀升至7700点。”德特里克在一份报告中写道。此外，一个不可忽视的风险或发生在今年下半年，也就是11月举行的美国中期选举。随着中期选举脚步临近，鉴于选举结果及其导致的后续政策变化的不确定性，投资者谨慎观望情绪将逐级上升。股票交易者年鉴统计了自1946年以来的数据显示，标普500指数在中期选举年的平均涨幅较常年平均低出约3个百分点，其中新任总统的首次中期选举中股指表现尤其差。中期选举年，美股表现逊于常年 （图源：Hirsch Holdings）根据LPL Financial 的数据，自 1950 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在中期选举年内的高位回调幅度平均达17.1%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093222695,"gmtCreate":1643642886245,"gmtModify":1676533839486,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093222695","repostId":"1176041035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176041035","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1643611390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176041035?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储紧缩风暴来袭，所有人都在问股市何处是底？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176041035","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。</p><p>1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。</p><p><b>华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？</b>截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。</p><p>多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。</p><p>不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。</p><p><b>紧缩风暴来袭</b></p><p>鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。</p><p>鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。</p><p>新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。</p><p>有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”</p><p>刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。</p><p>GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。</p><p>面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美股远未跌完</b></p><p>受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。<b>当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。</b></p><p>“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| 纳斯达克100指数</p><p>他提及，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”</p><p><b>目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。</b>美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。</p><p>国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。</p><p>目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。</p><p>如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。</p><p>但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：</p><p><b>它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A股中枢下移</b></p><p><b>转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？</b></p><p>1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。</p><p>中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。</p><p>政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。</p><p>目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。<b>2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。</b>资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。</p><p>以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储紧缩风暴来袭，所有人都在问股市何处是底？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储紧缩风暴来袭，所有人都在问股市何处是底？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-31 14:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。</p><p>1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。</p><p><b>华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？</b>截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。</p><p>多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。</p><p>不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。</p><p><b>紧缩风暴来袭</b></p><p>鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。</p><p>鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。</p><p>新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。</p><p>有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”</p><p>刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。</p><p>GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。</p><p>面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美股远未跌完</b></p><p>受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。<b>当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。</b></p><p>“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| 纳斯达克100指数</p><p>他提及，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”</p><p><b>目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。</b>美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。</p><p>国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。</p><p>目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。</p><p>如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。</p><p>但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：</p><p><b>它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A股中枢下移</b></p><p><b>转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？</b></p><p>1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。</p><p>中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。</p><p>政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。</p><p>目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。<b>2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。</b>资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。</p><p>以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75adecb2c4a2991eb1db80f007a7b5f8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176041035","content_text":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。紧缩风暴来袭鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。美股远未跌完受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”| 纳斯达克100指数他提及，此前奈飞（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；微软的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；特斯拉发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。A股中枢下移转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不值得买，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987324101,"gmtCreate":1667829109303,"gmtModify":1676537970539,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987324101","repostId":"2281414614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281414614","pubTimestamp":1667835205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281414614?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Growth Stocks That Could Soar 133% to 226% From Their 52-Week Lows, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281414614","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These growth stocks have fallen sharply amid the bear market, but investors have good reason to be bullish on both companies.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The stock market has crumbled this year. High inflation and rising interest rates have caused the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> to dive headlong into a bear market. The broad-based index is currently 21% off its high, but many individual growth stocks have fared even worse. For instance, <b>Shopify</b> and <b>Global-e Online</b> have seen their share prices tumble 80% and 73%, respectively, leaving both stocks near 52-week lows.</p><p>However, some Wall Street analysts remain upbeat. Paul Treiber of <b>RBC</b> Capital has a price target on Shopify of $55 per share, 133% higher than its 52-week low of $23.63. And James Faucette of <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a></b> has a price target of $51 per share on Global-e Online, which implies 226% upside from its 52-week low of $15.63.</p><p>Is it time to buy these growth stocks?</p><h2>Shopify: Omnichannel commerce made easy</h2><p>Shopify is the central nervous system for over two million businesses. Its software simplifies commerce by enabling merchants to manage multiple sales channels from a single platform, including online marketplaces like <b>Amazon</b>, social media like Instagram, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) websites. Shopify also provides adjacent solutions for payment processing, financing, and marketing, among others.</p><p>The company has struggled in the current economic environment. Revenue climbed just 22% to $1.4 billion in the third quarter, and the company posted an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, compared to an adjusted profit of $0.08 per share last year. Worse yet, Shopify may continue to struggle until inflation normalizes and consumer spending rebounds. But these temporary headwinds are obscuring its true potential. In fact, RBC analyst Paul Treiber recently called Shopify &#34;one of the most compelling long-term growth stories.&#34;</p><p>According to G2 Grid, Shopify is the most popular e-commerce software in terms of market presence, and Shopify Plus -- its commerce suite for larger companies -- is the second most popular platform. That success stems from its support for omnichannel commerce. While marketplace operators herd sellers onto one platform, Shopify helps brands grow across virtually any channel. That includes brick-and-mortar stores and D2C websites, which gives brands complete control over the buyer experience -- something they lack on a marketplace like Amazon -- and can increase the odds of lasting customer relationships.</p><p>That means Shopify is set to capitalize on a large and growing addressable market. E-commerce sales worldwide are expected to increase 10% annually to reach $7.4 trillion by 2025, according to eMarketer. Better yet, Shopify has a particularly strong foothold in North America. It powered 10.3% of retail e-commerce sales in the U.S. last year -- second only to Amazon -- and that market is expected to grow 12% annually to reach $1.5 trillion by 2025.</p><p>Currently, shares trade at about 8.5 times sales, an absolute bargain compared to the three-year average of over 36 times sales. That creates a compelling buying opportunity, though investors shouldn&#39;t expect triple-digit returns in the next year. The macroeconomic environment is far too uncertain to warrant that type of near-term optimism.</p><h2>Global-e Online: Cross-border e-commerce made easy</h2><p>Global-e simplifies cross-border e-commerce by helping merchants optimize their digital stores for international buyers. The Global-e platform localizes details like language, currency, and payment options, and it surfaces data-driven insights to help merchants understand shopper behavior on a market-by-market basis. Those services boost international conversion rates, often by more than 60%, according to the company.</p><p>Additionally, Global-e provides fulfillment services through a partner network of shipping carriers, and it offers support for returns and customer service. Better yet, its platform removes much of the regulatory complexity associated with international expansion by helping merchants calculate and pay import duties and foreign sales tax. In a nutshell, Global-e makes it easy for businesses to move into new markets, and that value proposition has the company growing like gangbusters.</p><p>In the second quarter, Global-e saw gross merchandise volume (GMV) soar 64% to $534 million as more brands joined the platform. That feat is particularly impressive given the state of the global economy. In turn, quarterly revenue jumped 52% to $87 million, and the company posted positive free cash flow (FCF) of $30 million. That equates to an impressive FCF margin of 34%.</p><p>Better yet, investors have good reason to believe that momentum will continue. Cross-border e-commerce sales will total $736 billion in 2023, according to <b>Forrester Research</b>, but Global-e handled just $990 million in GMV through the first half of 2022. That puts the company in front of a massive opportunity, and management has set in motion a strong growth strategy. For instance, Global-e powers Shopify Markets Pro, a sophisticated cross-border solution that makes it possible for Shopify merchants to expand into more than 150 markets overnight.</p><p>Currently, shares trade at just over 11 times sales, a discount to the historic average of nearly 25. That&#39;s why investors should consider buying this growth stock, though Global-e is best viewed as a long-term investment. Triple-digit returns are in the cards but only with enough time for the company to expand into its huge market.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Growth Stocks That Could Soar 133% to 226% From Their 52-Week Lows, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Growth Stocks That Could Soar 133% to 226% From Their 52-Week Lows, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 23:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/2-growth-stocks-could-soar-226-from-52-week-low/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market has crumbled this year. High inflation and rising interest rates have caused the S&P 500 to dive headlong into a bear market. The broad-based index is currently 21% off its high, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/2-growth-stocks-could-soar-226-from-52-week-low/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GLBE":"Global-E Online Ltd.","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/2-growth-stocks-could-soar-226-from-52-week-low/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281414614","content_text":"The stock market has crumbled this year. High inflation and rising interest rates have caused the S&P 500 to dive headlong into a bear market. The broad-based index is currently 21% off its high, but many individual growth stocks have fared even worse. For instance, Shopify and Global-e Online have seen their share prices tumble 80% and 73%, respectively, leaving both stocks near 52-week lows.However, some Wall Street analysts remain upbeat. Paul Treiber of RBC Capital has a price target on Shopify of $55 per share, 133% higher than its 52-week low of $23.63. And James Faucette of Morgan Stanley has a price target of $51 per share on Global-e Online, which implies 226% upside from its 52-week low of $15.63.Is it time to buy these growth stocks?Shopify: Omnichannel commerce made easyShopify is the central nervous system for over two million businesses. Its software simplifies commerce by enabling merchants to manage multiple sales channels from a single platform, including online marketplaces like Amazon, social media like Instagram, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) websites. Shopify also provides adjacent solutions for payment processing, financing, and marketing, among others.The company has struggled in the current economic environment. Revenue climbed just 22% to $1.4 billion in the third quarter, and the company posted an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, compared to an adjusted profit of $0.08 per share last year. Worse yet, Shopify may continue to struggle until inflation normalizes and consumer spending rebounds. But these temporary headwinds are obscuring its true potential. In fact, RBC analyst Paul Treiber recently called Shopify \"one of the most compelling long-term growth stories.\"According to G2 Grid, Shopify is the most popular e-commerce software in terms of market presence, and Shopify Plus -- its commerce suite for larger companies -- is the second most popular platform. That success stems from its support for omnichannel commerce. While marketplace operators herd sellers onto one platform, Shopify helps brands grow across virtually any channel. That includes brick-and-mortar stores and D2C websites, which gives brands complete control over the buyer experience -- something they lack on a marketplace like Amazon -- and can increase the odds of lasting customer relationships.That means Shopify is set to capitalize on a large and growing addressable market. E-commerce sales worldwide are expected to increase 10% annually to reach $7.4 trillion by 2025, according to eMarketer. Better yet, Shopify has a particularly strong foothold in North America. It powered 10.3% of retail e-commerce sales in the U.S. last year -- second only to Amazon -- and that market is expected to grow 12% annually to reach $1.5 trillion by 2025.Currently, shares trade at about 8.5 times sales, an absolute bargain compared to the three-year average of over 36 times sales. That creates a compelling buying opportunity, though investors shouldn't expect triple-digit returns in the next year. The macroeconomic environment is far too uncertain to warrant that type of near-term optimism.Global-e Online: Cross-border e-commerce made easyGlobal-e simplifies cross-border e-commerce by helping merchants optimize their digital stores for international buyers. The Global-e platform localizes details like language, currency, and payment options, and it surfaces data-driven insights to help merchants understand shopper behavior on a market-by-market basis. Those services boost international conversion rates, often by more than 60%, according to the company.Additionally, Global-e provides fulfillment services through a partner network of shipping carriers, and it offers support for returns and customer service. Better yet, its platform removes much of the regulatory complexity associated with international expansion by helping merchants calculate and pay import duties and foreign sales tax. In a nutshell, Global-e makes it easy for businesses to move into new markets, and that value proposition has the company growing like gangbusters.In the second quarter, Global-e saw gross merchandise volume (GMV) soar 64% to $534 million as more brands joined the platform. That feat is particularly impressive given the state of the global economy. In turn, quarterly revenue jumped 52% to $87 million, and the company posted positive free cash flow (FCF) of $30 million. That equates to an impressive FCF margin of 34%.Better yet, investors have good reason to believe that momentum will continue. Cross-border e-commerce sales will total $736 billion in 2023, according to Forrester Research, but Global-e handled just $990 million in GMV through the first half of 2022. That puts the company in front of a massive opportunity, and management has set in motion a strong growth strategy. For instance, Global-e powers Shopify Markets Pro, a sophisticated cross-border solution that makes it possible for Shopify merchants to expand into more than 150 markets overnight.Currently, shares trade at just over 11 times sales, a discount to the historic average of nearly 25. That's why investors should consider buying this growth stock, though Global-e is best viewed as a long-term investment. Triple-digit returns are in the cards but only with enough time for the company to expand into its huge market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936739717,"gmtCreate":1662822973240,"gmtModify":1676537146516,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936739717","repostId":"2266415879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266415879","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662773640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266415879?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-10 09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"She Was the Best of Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266415879","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"ByAndrew RobertsMr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of \"The Last King of America: The Misunder","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb38370e84ba1fea7d758c98f97d645\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>ByAndrew Roberts</i></p><p><i>Mr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of &#34;The Last King of America: The Misunderstood Reign of George III&#34; and a royal commentator for NBC News.</i></p><p>We British like to believe that we have the virtues of duty, decency, good humor and tolerance as part of our national DNA. There might be some self-delusion in this, and it is certainly not always true, but it is a strong part of our self-defining myth as a people. Of one Briton, however, it genuinely was true, and for 70 years we have known that because of her virtues we would always be proud of her wherever she went -- and thus proud of our country too. She was a fine lifelong role model for millions in Britain, the Commonwealth and around the world.</p><p>The complete certainty that -- whatever the rest of her family might say or do -- Her Majesty The Queen would never embarrass us on the world stage, but would always perform her duties with the utmost professionalism and unflappable calm, made her the soft-power equivalent of an aircraft carrier when it came to international relations. However much our other national institutions might let us down, we always knew that The Queen would never put a step out of place or say a single word that would make us cringe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96243ab593f31f43979c5b0356e3e1f3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip in Buckingham Palace, December 1958. They were married for 73 years before his death in 2021.</span></p><p>In the full glare of the global media for seven decades, meeting hundreds of thousands of people one-on-one and untold millions in public events, traveling to over a hundred countries of the world, dealing with delicate diplomatic incidents that today are history but at the time could have produced strife, advising 15 prime ministers from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, she knew just what to do. It seems almost superhuman; it was certainly the absolute acme of professionalism. Would to God that more of our leaders in public life had a fraction of her grace, her gravitas and, above all, her common sense.</p><p>The Queen had an uncanny knack for encapsulating in a phrase what the rest of us think but rarely quite put into words, or at least rarely have the opportunity to say to the right person at the right time. &#34;Why did no one see it coming?&#34; she asked Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, about the 2008 Great Crash. &#34;Why would anyone want the job?&#34; she asked Boris Johnson when he became prime minister during the Brexit maelstrom. Then there was the sixth sense she had for what her people were feeling. When they were hurting financially during the Great Crash, she canceled her birthday party at the Ritz. And of course there was her choice of the apposite phrase. &#34;Grief is the price we pay for love,&#34; she said in the aftermath of 9/11, encapsulating precisely what the West was feeling.</p><p>Remember those words as we watch the long line of mourning Britons and her subjects from 15 countries across the globe next week, stretching from her catafalque in Westminster Hall. I strongly suspect that it will go down the Thames all the way to the City of London financial district in the east of the capital, as they pay their respects at her lying-in-state. They will come from across the four kingdoms and from around the world; they will wait patiently in line for very many hours on end; they will doggedly put up with the rain and cold winds all night; they will josh with the coppers and stay cheerful; they will bring their children and grandchildren who will one day be able to tell their own children and grandchildren that they paid their last respects to Queen Elizabeth II, Elizabeth the Good.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c415ea69257bd5839a78c9d5e0eca6f1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Left to right: West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Queen Elizabeth II, President Ronald Reagan and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at Buckingham Palace during a summit for world leaders, June 1984.</span></p><p>Everyone would have perfectly understood if Her Majesty had decided to appoint Liz Truss as prime minister by a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> call. She had missed the Braemar Highland Games and had been suffering ill health, and a personal meeting wasn&#39;t strictly constitutionally necessary. As we now know -- and as she herself might well have suspected -- she only had two more days to live. But anyone who thought that she would put her personal comfort before what she saw as her duty doesn&#39;t understand the character of The Queen, the last of the Greatest Generation. When she was shot at six times as she rode down the Mall at the Trooping of the Colour in 1981, she didn&#39;t know the assailant was firing blanks, but she carried on the parade regardless. That is the kind of raw courage we took for granted from her.</p><p>Britain has undergone several extremely difficult moments over the past 70 years as it has been transformed in almost every conceivable way. The Suez Crisis, only four years into the Queen&#39;s reign, forced us to come to terms with the loss of the largest empire in world history over the course of only a decade or so, yet we never responded to the imperial humiliation in the way that France did in Algeria, let alone the way Putin is doing in Ukraine. The 1970s saw the serious danger of Britain slipping into the position of a third-rank power, and the tough-love medicine that Margaret Thatcher imposed to reverse that trajectory in the 1980s led to violent strikes and riots, yet not to worse. The issue of race hatred is thankfully largely behind Britons now, but we must never forget that it occasionally caused civil unrest. The refusal of much of the Establishment to accept the result of the Brexit referendum toxified British politics for half a decade. British history since 1952 hasn&#39;t been plain sailing.</p><p>Yet the knowledge that at the apex of our political system, our constitutional structure, our armed forces, our Commonwealth, our legal system and our national church stood a lady of irreproachable morals, who moreover confined her political involvement to advising, encouraging and warning but never to partisan politics, has exercised an inestimably positive influence on our public life. Liz Truss wasn&#39;t exaggerating when she perceptively said that the Queen was &#34;the rock upon which modern Britain was built.&#34;</p><p>Although she was a small &#34;c&#34; conservative in many aspects of life, as many nonagenarians naturally are, The Queen was always exemplary in the way that she never interfered in politics, and Sir Keir Starmer&#39;s public statement showed that the Labour Party admired her just as much as the large-c Conservatives. In a country that is being riven by extreme partisan politics at the moment, as Britons face a post-Covid future and inflationary spirals, admiration for her was one of the few things that united both frontbenches in parliament. Now even that has gone.</p><p>More than a century separated the births of The Queen&#39;s first prime minister, Winston Churchill, and her last, Liz Truss. Even more extraordinary, the 96 years of her life constitutes 39% of the existence of the United States as an independent country. Her love of the United States -- her only incognito holidays were taken in Kentucky -- was instrumental in keeping our most important alliance, the Special Relationship, as fresh as it is profound. We have only just begun to note the number of ways we are going to miss her, on both the international and the domestic stages.</p><p>A millennium-old monarchy is a book of many chapters. One unusually long and glorious chapter has closed, and a new one is now opening. If Britain today seems somewhat untethered, mournful of course but also apprehensive, it is because King Charles III has almost impossibly large boots to fill. Yet he has been waiting for 70 of his 73 years for the role to devolve upon him and is therefore supremely ready for it. There is something immensely spiritually right that a role such as this is assumed during a period of mourning. Politicians take power feeling like they have won the lottery; monarchs accede to thrones mournful at the death of their parent. Succession at a time of somber reflection rather than exultant triumph is part of the genius of constitutional monarchy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874414f0f61b424aaf7b94a980470613\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II in the House of Lords for the opening of Parliament, May 2015. She continued to fulfill her duties until the end, appointing her 15th prime minister, Liz Truss, on Sept 6.</span></p><p>We as a nation made The Queen do things that we would never, ever, even consider doing ourselves. We expected her to do her job to the age of 96, when we retire at 65, and to keep doing it up to two days before her death. We expected her to invite bloodthirsty dictators to stay in her home, because British foreign policy interests required it. We expected her, aged 86, to stand on a boat in the Thames in the freezing rain during the diamond jubilee, waving for hour after hour. We expected her to shake the hand of a former IRA gunmen who approved the murder of her husband&#39;s uncle. We expected her to smile and charm and shake hands cordially, whatever she might privately have been feeling inside about her family&#39;s all-too-public traumas.</p><p>She did all of it, and in 70 years she never once complained. She was the best of us.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>She Was the Best of Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShe Was the Best of Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-10 09:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb38370e84ba1fea7d758c98f97d645\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>ByAndrew Roberts</i></p><p><i>Mr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of &#34;The Last King of America: The Misunderstood Reign of George III&#34; and a royal commentator for NBC News.</i></p><p>We British like to believe that we have the virtues of duty, decency, good humor and tolerance as part of our national DNA. There might be some self-delusion in this, and it is certainly not always true, but it is a strong part of our self-defining myth as a people. Of one Briton, however, it genuinely was true, and for 70 years we have known that because of her virtues we would always be proud of her wherever she went -- and thus proud of our country too. She was a fine lifelong role model for millions in Britain, the Commonwealth and around the world.</p><p>The complete certainty that -- whatever the rest of her family might say or do -- Her Majesty The Queen would never embarrass us on the world stage, but would always perform her duties with the utmost professionalism and unflappable calm, made her the soft-power equivalent of an aircraft carrier when it came to international relations. However much our other national institutions might let us down, we always knew that The Queen would never put a step out of place or say a single word that would make us cringe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96243ab593f31f43979c5b0356e3e1f3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip in Buckingham Palace, December 1958. They were married for 73 years before his death in 2021.</span></p><p>In the full glare of the global media for seven decades, meeting hundreds of thousands of people one-on-one and untold millions in public events, traveling to over a hundred countries of the world, dealing with delicate diplomatic incidents that today are history but at the time could have produced strife, advising 15 prime ministers from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, she knew just what to do. It seems almost superhuman; it was certainly the absolute acme of professionalism. Would to God that more of our leaders in public life had a fraction of her grace, her gravitas and, above all, her common sense.</p><p>The Queen had an uncanny knack for encapsulating in a phrase what the rest of us think but rarely quite put into words, or at least rarely have the opportunity to say to the right person at the right time. &#34;Why did no one see it coming?&#34; she asked Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, about the 2008 Great Crash. &#34;Why would anyone want the job?&#34; she asked Boris Johnson when he became prime minister during the Brexit maelstrom. Then there was the sixth sense she had for what her people were feeling. When they were hurting financially during the Great Crash, she canceled her birthday party at the Ritz. And of course there was her choice of the apposite phrase. &#34;Grief is the price we pay for love,&#34; she said in the aftermath of 9/11, encapsulating precisely what the West was feeling.</p><p>Remember those words as we watch the long line of mourning Britons and her subjects from 15 countries across the globe next week, stretching from her catafalque in Westminster Hall. I strongly suspect that it will go down the Thames all the way to the City of London financial district in the east of the capital, as they pay their respects at her lying-in-state. They will come from across the four kingdoms and from around the world; they will wait patiently in line for very many hours on end; they will doggedly put up with the rain and cold winds all night; they will josh with the coppers and stay cheerful; they will bring their children and grandchildren who will one day be able to tell their own children and grandchildren that they paid their last respects to Queen Elizabeth II, Elizabeth the Good.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c415ea69257bd5839a78c9d5e0eca6f1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Left to right: West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Queen Elizabeth II, President Ronald Reagan and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at Buckingham Palace during a summit for world leaders, June 1984.</span></p><p>Everyone would have perfectly understood if Her Majesty had decided to appoint Liz Truss as prime minister by a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> call. She had missed the Braemar Highland Games and had been suffering ill health, and a personal meeting wasn&#39;t strictly constitutionally necessary. As we now know -- and as she herself might well have suspected -- she only had two more days to live. But anyone who thought that she would put her personal comfort before what she saw as her duty doesn&#39;t understand the character of The Queen, the last of the Greatest Generation. When she was shot at six times as she rode down the Mall at the Trooping of the Colour in 1981, she didn&#39;t know the assailant was firing blanks, but she carried on the parade regardless. That is the kind of raw courage we took for granted from her.</p><p>Britain has undergone several extremely difficult moments over the past 70 years as it has been transformed in almost every conceivable way. The Suez Crisis, only four years into the Queen&#39;s reign, forced us to come to terms with the loss of the largest empire in world history over the course of only a decade or so, yet we never responded to the imperial humiliation in the way that France did in Algeria, let alone the way Putin is doing in Ukraine. The 1970s saw the serious danger of Britain slipping into the position of a third-rank power, and the tough-love medicine that Margaret Thatcher imposed to reverse that trajectory in the 1980s led to violent strikes and riots, yet not to worse. The issue of race hatred is thankfully largely behind Britons now, but we must never forget that it occasionally caused civil unrest. The refusal of much of the Establishment to accept the result of the Brexit referendum toxified British politics for half a decade. British history since 1952 hasn&#39;t been plain sailing.</p><p>Yet the knowledge that at the apex of our political system, our constitutional structure, our armed forces, our Commonwealth, our legal system and our national church stood a lady of irreproachable morals, who moreover confined her political involvement to advising, encouraging and warning but never to partisan politics, has exercised an inestimably positive influence on our public life. Liz Truss wasn&#39;t exaggerating when she perceptively said that the Queen was &#34;the rock upon which modern Britain was built.&#34;</p><p>Although she was a small &#34;c&#34; conservative in many aspects of life, as many nonagenarians naturally are, The Queen was always exemplary in the way that she never interfered in politics, and Sir Keir Starmer&#39;s public statement showed that the Labour Party admired her just as much as the large-c Conservatives. In a country that is being riven by extreme partisan politics at the moment, as Britons face a post-Covid future and inflationary spirals, admiration for her was one of the few things that united both frontbenches in parliament. Now even that has gone.</p><p>More than a century separated the births of The Queen&#39;s first prime minister, Winston Churchill, and her last, Liz Truss. Even more extraordinary, the 96 years of her life constitutes 39% of the existence of the United States as an independent country. Her love of the United States -- her only incognito holidays were taken in Kentucky -- was instrumental in keeping our most important alliance, the Special Relationship, as fresh as it is profound. We have only just begun to note the number of ways we are going to miss her, on both the international and the domestic stages.</p><p>A millennium-old monarchy is a book of many chapters. One unusually long and glorious chapter has closed, and a new one is now opening. If Britain today seems somewhat untethered, mournful of course but also apprehensive, it is because King Charles III has almost impossibly large boots to fill. Yet he has been waiting for 70 of his 73 years for the role to devolve upon him and is therefore supremely ready for it. There is something immensely spiritually right that a role such as this is assumed during a period of mourning. Politicians take power feeling like they have won the lottery; monarchs accede to thrones mournful at the death of their parent. Succession at a time of somber reflection rather than exultant triumph is part of the genius of constitutional monarchy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874414f0f61b424aaf7b94a980470613\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II in the House of Lords for the opening of Parliament, May 2015. She continued to fulfill her duties until the end, appointing her 15th prime minister, Liz Truss, on Sept 6.</span></p><p>We as a nation made The Queen do things that we would never, ever, even consider doing ourselves. We expected her to do her job to the age of 96, when we retire at 65, and to keep doing it up to two days before her death. We expected her to invite bloodthirsty dictators to stay in her home, because British foreign policy interests required it. We expected her, aged 86, to stand on a boat in the Thames in the freezing rain during the diamond jubilee, waving for hour after hour. We expected her to shake the hand of a former IRA gunmen who approved the murder of her husband&#39;s uncle. We expected her to smile and charm and shake hands cordially, whatever she might privately have been feeling inside about her family&#39;s all-too-public traumas.</p><p>She did all of it, and in 70 years she never once complained. She was the best of us.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266415879","content_text":"ByAndrew RobertsMr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of \"The Last King of America: The Misunderstood Reign of George III\" and a royal commentator for NBC News.We British like to believe that we have the virtues of duty, decency, good humor and tolerance as part of our national DNA. There might be some self-delusion in this, and it is certainly not always true, but it is a strong part of our self-defining myth as a people. Of one Briton, however, it genuinely was true, and for 70 years we have known that because of her virtues we would always be proud of her wherever she went -- and thus proud of our country too. She was a fine lifelong role model for millions in Britain, the Commonwealth and around the world.The complete certainty that -- whatever the rest of her family might say or do -- Her Majesty The Queen would never embarrass us on the world stage, but would always perform her duties with the utmost professionalism and unflappable calm, made her the soft-power equivalent of an aircraft carrier when it came to international relations. However much our other national institutions might let us down, we always knew that The Queen would never put a step out of place or say a single word that would make us cringe.Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip in Buckingham Palace, December 1958. They were married for 73 years before his death in 2021.In the full glare of the global media for seven decades, meeting hundreds of thousands of people one-on-one and untold millions in public events, traveling to over a hundred countries of the world, dealing with delicate diplomatic incidents that today are history but at the time could have produced strife, advising 15 prime ministers from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, she knew just what to do. It seems almost superhuman; it was certainly the absolute acme of professionalism. Would to God that more of our leaders in public life had a fraction of her grace, her gravitas and, above all, her common sense.The Queen had an uncanny knack for encapsulating in a phrase what the rest of us think but rarely quite put into words, or at least rarely have the opportunity to say to the right person at the right time. \"Why did no one see it coming?\" she asked Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, about the 2008 Great Crash. \"Why would anyone want the job?\" she asked Boris Johnson when he became prime minister during the Brexit maelstrom. Then there was the sixth sense she had for what her people were feeling. When they were hurting financially during the Great Crash, she canceled her birthday party at the Ritz. And of course there was her choice of the apposite phrase. \"Grief is the price we pay for love,\" she said in the aftermath of 9/11, encapsulating precisely what the West was feeling.Remember those words as we watch the long line of mourning Britons and her subjects from 15 countries across the globe next week, stretching from her catafalque in Westminster Hall. I strongly suspect that it will go down the Thames all the way to the City of London financial district in the east of the capital, as they pay their respects at her lying-in-state. They will come from across the four kingdoms and from around the world; they will wait patiently in line for very many hours on end; they will doggedly put up with the rain and cold winds all night; they will josh with the coppers and stay cheerful; they will bring their children and grandchildren who will one day be able to tell their own children and grandchildren that they paid their last respects to Queen Elizabeth II, Elizabeth the Good.Left to right: West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Queen Elizabeth II, President Ronald Reagan and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at Buckingham Palace during a summit for world leaders, June 1984.Everyone would have perfectly understood if Her Majesty had decided to appoint Liz Truss as prime minister by a Zoom call. She had missed the Braemar Highland Games and had been suffering ill health, and a personal meeting wasn't strictly constitutionally necessary. As we now know -- and as she herself might well have suspected -- she only had two more days to live. But anyone who thought that she would put her personal comfort before what she saw as her duty doesn't understand the character of The Queen, the last of the Greatest Generation. When she was shot at six times as she rode down the Mall at the Trooping of the Colour in 1981, she didn't know the assailant was firing blanks, but she carried on the parade regardless. That is the kind of raw courage we took for granted from her.Britain has undergone several extremely difficult moments over the past 70 years as it has been transformed in almost every conceivable way. The Suez Crisis, only four years into the Queen's reign, forced us to come to terms with the loss of the largest empire in world history over the course of only a decade or so, yet we never responded to the imperial humiliation in the way that France did in Algeria, let alone the way Putin is doing in Ukraine. The 1970s saw the serious danger of Britain slipping into the position of a third-rank power, and the tough-love medicine that Margaret Thatcher imposed to reverse that trajectory in the 1980s led to violent strikes and riots, yet not to worse. The issue of race hatred is thankfully largely behind Britons now, but we must never forget that it occasionally caused civil unrest. The refusal of much of the Establishment to accept the result of the Brexit referendum toxified British politics for half a decade. British history since 1952 hasn't been plain sailing.Yet the knowledge that at the apex of our political system, our constitutional structure, our armed forces, our Commonwealth, our legal system and our national church stood a lady of irreproachable morals, who moreover confined her political involvement to advising, encouraging and warning but never to partisan politics, has exercised an inestimably positive influence on our public life. Liz Truss wasn't exaggerating when she perceptively said that the Queen was \"the rock upon which modern Britain was built.\"Although she was a small \"c\" conservative in many aspects of life, as many nonagenarians naturally are, The Queen was always exemplary in the way that she never interfered in politics, and Sir Keir Starmer's public statement showed that the Labour Party admired her just as much as the large-c Conservatives. In a country that is being riven by extreme partisan politics at the moment, as Britons face a post-Covid future and inflationary spirals, admiration for her was one of the few things that united both frontbenches in parliament. Now even that has gone.More than a century separated the births of The Queen's first prime minister, Winston Churchill, and her last, Liz Truss. Even more extraordinary, the 96 years of her life constitutes 39% of the existence of the United States as an independent country. Her love of the United States -- her only incognito holidays were taken in Kentucky -- was instrumental in keeping our most important alliance, the Special Relationship, as fresh as it is profound. We have only just begun to note the number of ways we are going to miss her, on both the international and the domestic stages.A millennium-old monarchy is a book of many chapters. One unusually long and glorious chapter has closed, and a new one is now opening. If Britain today seems somewhat untethered, mournful of course but also apprehensive, it is because King Charles III has almost impossibly large boots to fill. Yet he has been waiting for 70 of his 73 years for the role to devolve upon him and is therefore supremely ready for it. There is something immensely spiritually right that a role such as this is assumed during a period of mourning. Politicians take power feeling like they have won the lottery; monarchs accede to thrones mournful at the death of their parent. Succession at a time of somber reflection rather than exultant triumph is part of the genius of constitutional monarchy.Queen Elizabeth II in the House of Lords for the opening of Parliament, May 2015. She continued to fulfill her duties until the end, appointing her 15th prime minister, Liz Truss, on Sept 6.We as a nation made The Queen do things that we would never, ever, even consider doing ourselves. We expected her to do her job to the age of 96, when we retire at 65, and to keep doing it up to two days before her death. We expected her to invite bloodthirsty dictators to stay in her home, because British foreign policy interests required it. We expected her, aged 86, to stand on a boat in the Thames in the freezing rain during the diamond jubilee, waving for hour after hour. We expected her to shake the hand of a former IRA gunmen who approved the murder of her husband's uncle. We expected her to smile and charm and shake hands cordially, whatever she might privately have been feeling inside about her family's all-too-public traumas.She did all of it, and in 70 years she never once complained. She was the best of us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050611953,"gmtCreate":1654181318373,"gmtModify":1676535408185,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050611953","repostId":"2240239335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240239335","pubTimestamp":1654175018,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240239335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-02 21:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"5月“小非农”不及预期，美联储9月暂缓加息有理由了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240239335","media":"金十数据","summary":"周四晚间公布的美国5月ADP就业人数录得增加12.8万人，创2020年2月以来最小就业人数增幅，远低于预期的增加30万人，前值从增加24.7万人下修至20.2万人。数据公布后，现货金银短线上涨，美元指","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周四晚间公布的<b>美国5月ADP就业人数录得增加12.8万人，创2020年2月以来最小就业人数增幅，远低于预期的增加30万人</b>，前值从增加24.7万人下修至20.2万人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27680a8b32476b76878bbf7f4bc4332d\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>数据公布后，现货金银短线上涨，美元指数维持在102.2之下波动。欧元兑美元日内涨幅扩大至0.50%，现报1.0698。</p><p>ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，在劳动力市场紧俏和通胀高企的的背景下，月度新增工作岗位更接近疫情前的水平。</p><p>本月新增就业人数较少，主要是因为小企业就业人数大幅下降。Richardson称：</p><blockquote>“所有行业的就业增长速度都有所放缓，与此同时小企业情况仍然令人担忧，因为它们难以跟上最近蓬勃发展的大公司的步伐。”</blockquote><p>ADP报告具体显示，5月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.8万人，4月增加1.5万人；5月建筑业就业人数减少0.2万人，4月增加1.6万人；5月制造业就业人数增加2.2万人，4月增加2.5万人；5月专业/商业服务就业人数增加2.3万人，4月增加5万人；5月金融服务业就业人数增加1万人，4月增加0.8万人。</p><p>机构分析称，美国企业5月份新增就业岗位低于预期，这表明，尽管美国5月份的职位空缺接近创纪录水平，企业仍难以从有限的员工中招聘。在未来几个月里，持续的高通胀和不断下降的储蓄率可能会吸引更多的美国人去工作。</p><p><b>这样的发展对美联储而言是个好消息，因为美联储希望劳动力参与率的提高来降低对工人的需求，进而减缓工资增长和通货膨胀。</b>这可能需要一段时间才能实现，因为周三的另一份报告显示，美国4月份的就业机会较上月创纪录水平有所下降，但仍处于高位，大约是美国失业人数的两倍。</p><p>另外，考虑到ADP数据向来是非农就业报告的前瞻指标，ADP不及预期的表现对于周五的非农而言并不是一个好消息。不过，劳动力市场的降温将大大有助于美联储控制通胀，同时引导经济实现软着陆，这可能意味着美联储的加息幅度将低于市场目前的定价。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5月“小非农”不及预期，美联储9月暂缓加息有理由了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5月“小非农”不及预期，美联储9月暂缓加息有理由了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-02 21:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=95010&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周四晚间公布的美国5月ADP就业人数录得增加12.8万人，创2020年2月以来最小就业人数增幅，远低于预期的增加30万人，前值从增加24.7万人下修至20.2万人。数据公布后，现货金银短线上涨，美元指数维持在102.2之下波动。欧元兑美元日内涨幅扩大至0.50%，现报1.0698。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，在劳动力市场紧俏和通胀高企的的背景下，月度新增工作岗位更接近疫情...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=95010&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd9672d160f9bac4a5f05775101f1d22","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=95010&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240239335","content_text":"周四晚间公布的美国5月ADP就业人数录得增加12.8万人，创2020年2月以来最小就业人数增幅，远低于预期的增加30万人，前值从增加24.7万人下修至20.2万人。数据公布后，现货金银短线上涨，美元指数维持在102.2之下波动。欧元兑美元日内涨幅扩大至0.50%，现报1.0698。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，在劳动力市场紧俏和通胀高企的的背景下，月度新增工作岗位更接近疫情前的水平。本月新增就业人数较少，主要是因为小企业就业人数大幅下降。Richardson称：“所有行业的就业增长速度都有所放缓，与此同时小企业情况仍然令人担忧，因为它们难以跟上最近蓬勃发展的大公司的步伐。”ADP报告具体显示，5月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.8万人，4月增加1.5万人；5月建筑业就业人数减少0.2万人，4月增加1.6万人；5月制造业就业人数增加2.2万人，4月增加2.5万人；5月专业/商业服务就业人数增加2.3万人，4月增加5万人；5月金融服务业就业人数增加1万人，4月增加0.8万人。机构分析称，美国企业5月份新增就业岗位低于预期，这表明，尽管美国5月份的职位空缺接近创纪录水平，企业仍难以从有限的员工中招聘。在未来几个月里，持续的高通胀和不断下降的储蓄率可能会吸引更多的美国人去工作。这样的发展对美联储而言是个好消息，因为美联储希望劳动力参与率的提高来降低对工人的需求，进而减缓工资增长和通货膨胀。这可能需要一段时间才能实现，因为周三的另一份报告显示，美国4月份的就业机会较上月创纪录水平有所下降，但仍处于高位，大约是美国失业人数的两倍。另外，考虑到ADP数据向来是非农就业报告的前瞻指标，ADP不及预期的表现对于周五的非农而言并不是一个好消息。不过，劳动力市场的降温将大大有助于美联储控制通胀，同时引导经济实现软着陆，这可能意味着美联储的加息幅度将低于市场目前的定价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039968830,"gmtCreate":1645886728612,"gmtModify":1676534072590,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039968830","repostId":"2214180192","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2214180192","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济观察报官方账号","home_visible":1,"media_name":"经济观察报","id":"1014835943","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d"},"pubTimestamp":1645859010,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214180192?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 15:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"乌克兰的中国面孔，他们现在怎么样了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214180192","media":"经济观察报","summary":"留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。","content":"<div>\n<p>（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>乌克兰的中国面孔，他们现在怎么样了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n乌克兰的中国面孔，他们现在怎么样了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-02-26 15:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>经济观察报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6f0ea65681c95c05fc970eb3496d5d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214180192","content_text":"（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”罗兰说。小心翼翼，一路向西，罗兰看到了坦克部队在对面逆向而过，沿途的加油站排起了长队，“只能付现金”。直到当晚抵达位于乌克兰西北部的罗夫诺州，罗兰才安顿下来，四周静悄悄的，没有了枪炮的声音，但一家人依然睡得心惊胆战。罗兰对战争的爆发早有预期，经历过2014年乌克兰革命的罗兰颇具警觉性，此前数天，她就已经把家里的护照和文件收拾妥当，并储备了一定的食物和生活用品。与警觉的罗兰不同，一些在乌华人没有选择逃离基辅。一位在乌克兰从事医药贸易的华人告诉经济观察报，她昨晚一夜没睡，躲在防空洞里，一直到2月25日下午才敢回家中收拾东西，准备撤侨回国。截稿前，这位华人又回到地下车库躲避，当地已经实行宵禁，因为车库信号不好，她在出车库临时回复国内长辈信息时才抽空告知记者她的现状，随后又匆匆赶回车库。2月22日，中国驻乌克兰大使馆网站发出了一份请中国公民注意安全的提醒，提醒中提及“乌克兰东部局势发生重大变化”，2月24日又一次发布该提醒；2月25日，大使馆发布紧急通知请拟自乌克兰撤离中国公民进行登记，通知表示为准备分批包机接返有关事宜，现开始人员登记。搭乘包机根据自愿原则。包机派出时间根据飞行安全情况确定，届时将提前通知。李牧之已经下定决心，不打算撤离，他还不清楚大使馆会怎样安排相关人员，比如资费、隔离政策等，他觉得如果要隔离“14+7”天，那还不如留在这里。李牧之乐观地判断，目前局势不太会影响到普通老百姓和居民，回国的必要性不大。李牧之是一位赴乌克兰留学的中国学生。2月24日凌晨四五点左右，睡梦中的李牧之被国内亲戚朋友频繁发来的信息轰炸至醒。在亲戚朋友口中得知俄罗斯将对乌克兰发起军事攻击之后，他决定下楼看看具体情况，因为他并没有听到任何大的动静。李牧之住在距离基辅市中心不远的地方。当地时间24日下午，李牧之来到基辅市中心街道，发现一些媒体在做采访，街上人变少了，除了卖衣服的大型商场、KFC、麦当劳等饮食餐厅关门之外，大型超市、医院、银行、药店未关门。但各个地方都需要排队。在前往市中心了解情况时，李牧之发现地铁是免费开放的，地铁上能看到一些人已经打包好行李准备离开，周边社区出现了少数穿制服的警察，但未看到士兵。他听说，基辅有些人选择了去其他城市避难，有些人选择了在防空洞里面睡觉。“但我们就在家待着，绝大多数人还是在家里待着”。王旭就是在家呆着的其中一位，他在乌克兰的哈尔科夫市，“炮弹不长眼，也不知道安全不安全”，在截稿前一个半小时，还发生了一场持续两三分钟的空袭，王旭赶紧把食物转移到车库内，地下车库聚集了很多邻居。此外，乌克兰已经进入战争状态，按照当地法律，军队有权征用车辆，王旭也不打算去其他的城市，“最好还是呆在家里”。李牧之的一位朋友住在敖德萨，这也是俄军所涉之处。听闻局势动荡，李牧之的朋友也拿起了单反相机外出拍摄记录。他告诉李牧之，外面一切安好。生计与生活直到2月24日，王旭觉得在乌克兰的一切都在正常进行，尽管与俄罗斯矛盾已经持续了若干年。2007年，王旭来到乌克兰留学，因为“当地的留学费用毕竟低一些”，毕业后，王旭留在了一家中国企业的乌克兰分公司，从事机床零件贸易，主要做的是俄语区的贸易。他的妻子是乌克兰人，哈尔科夫是一座“说大不大，说小不小”的城市，上班之外，周末的时间就是和朋友聚会，在附近的商场转一转。像王旭这样，留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。2009年，因为家里企业和乌克兰有合作，罗兰来到乌克兰留学，毕业后留在了当地，与一名中国留学生相识相爱，走入婚姻。罗兰对教育很感兴趣，在大学毕业后，罗兰和朋友因缘际会下创业，做了一家留学机构，这两年公司发展还不错。目前，罗兰一家在基辅买了房和车，两个孩子也在基辅上学，一个5岁，一个3岁，一家人保持中国国籍。疫情之前，他们一年回中国一到两次，疫情后回国不太方便。战争打响后，罗兰被朋友拉入一些华人互助群，群里互相交换信息提供帮助，比如有人会报安全的防空洞地址，有人要去西部，车上还有空位会在群里问有没有人要拼车。据中国驻乌克兰大使馆发布的信息，在乌中国公民约6000人，包括中资企业、留学生和华侨等，主要分布在基辅、利沃夫、哈尔科夫、敖德萨和苏梅等地。2019年，李牧之曾赴乌克兰旅游，2021年6月底再次来到乌克兰留学，虽然这个国家的“昔日辉煌”已不再，但李牧之还是很喜欢它，他决定在这个国家生活一段时间，“乌克兰人外表生冷，内心火热”，李牧之说。如果战争没有发生，李牧之还能照常约朋友到基辅独立广场碰面，在第聂伯河河边散步。但面对如此局面，李牧之并不感到意外。“2014年到现在，他们小规模的战争其实就没停过，只是双方原来的事态没发展到这么严重。这么多年以来，乌克兰边境地区顿涅茨克和俄罗斯的边境地区，一直在擦枪走火”。贸易网络上的中国面孔2021年5月30日，装载着100个标准集装箱的中欧班列自广州白云大朗铁路货运站启程，目的地是乌克兰第四大城市敖德萨。行程全程为8408公里，预计行驶25天，车辆上满载着割草机、电饭锅、茶叶等货物，货重约646吨，货值1059万元人民币。这是华南地区首趟直达乌克兰的中欧班列，也是中国首列开往敖德萨的中欧班列。自2020年开通以来，中国直达乌克兰的中欧班列已经开行57列。2019年，乌克兰海关统计，该年一季度，乌克兰对华贸易占比超过俄罗斯，中国成为乌克兰的第一大贸易伙伴。在2021年，乌克兰与全球235个国家开展了对外贸易。其中，对中国出口最多，达到80多亿元，其中包括1700多万吨铁矿石，823万吨玉米以及300余万吨大麦；同时又从中国进口了100余亿元商品，主要是三轮车、踏板车、踏板汽车等，还包括电话机、杀虫剂以及箱包日用品等。2022年1月14日，新华社刚刚刊发了一篇题为《2021年中乌务实合作取得丰硕成果——访中国驻乌克兰大使范先荣》的文章，范先荣在接受采访时表示，“2021年中乌务实合作在双边贸易、生产投资、交通往来等多方面亮点纷呈。面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，双边务实合作展现出强劲韧性和巨大潜力”。俄乌冲突也让国内的贸易商也受到了影响。义乌的部分乌克兰贸易企业已经暂时停摆。义乌小商品城的商户告诉经济观察报，目前市场内不安排做发往乌克兰的货品，即使送到了外贸公司也要拉回来，已经在宁波港口的也准备撤回义乌仓库。另一位长期从事对乌贸易的出口企业也收到了对方暂停发货的通知，“什么时候能恢复，我也预计不到。”他说。乌克兰何时能够恢复常态？尚无人能够给出一个准确的信息，但一些华人已经开始怀念此前平凡而日常的生活。“希望早一天能结束，能恢复一切，如常的平静，对老百姓能正常的生活，我觉得这就够了。”李牧之说。福建商人孙晨来乌克兰27年了，主要做鞋的批发生意。他判断战争很难短时间停下来，因此如果撤侨包机来了，肯定会考虑先回国的，之后就要看当地的情况了。“毕竟在这有车有房的，乌克兰百姓也好，（生活）已经习惯了，这里也算得上是第二个故乡。”孙晨说。王旭也希望在政局稳定后再回来，毕竟积累的业务资源都在这里，如果要离开乌克兰，就意味着要重新开始。罗兰一家人都非常喜欢在乌克兰的生活，不打仗的日子是平凡且幸福的，但她深知，乌克兰并不是一个太平的国度。他们在驱车往西的路上，罗兰收到大使馆的消息，大使馆正在统计回国的人数，罗兰一家人都报名了，目前他们正在等待大使馆通知什么时候、以什么方式回到中国。“如果需要我们就撤，但战争结束后我们还想回来，因为我们的房子、车子和工作都在这里。”罗兰说。（应受访者要求，文中罗兰、孙晨为化名）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092900076,"gmtCreate":1644502767286,"gmtModify":1676533934149,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092900076","repostId":"2210980598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210980598","pubTimestamp":1644495276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210980598?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 20:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"这次真的不一样？如何理解美联储“随机应变”式新框架","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210980598","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b><b>2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。</b></blockquote><p>在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，<b>官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（&#34;nimble&#34;），不排除任何选择。</b></p><p>鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的前景去做决定”。</p><p><b>这番表述给市场营造了一种不确定的氛围：</b>美联储今年到底会加息几次？前几次会议是否会大幅加息50个基点？缩表的时间点？这些问题仍然不明确。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>分析师Jonathan Pingle在最近的报告中指出，1月FOMC会议在回答哪条政策利率路径最为合适时，重点提到了灵活应变（nimble），这意味着2022美联储货币政策从“新常态”转变为“灵活应变”，并将加速转向“数据依赖性”。</p><p>这听上去与耶伦当年强调加息将基于经济数据的理念似曾相似，也似乎可以对应到更早一点的“自由裁量权”（discretion）。</p><p>那么，如何理解美联储这种“随机应变”式新框架？瑞银认为这一次与耶伦时期的“数据依赖”不一样，那到底哪儿不一样？对于市场来说意味着什么？</p><h2>“随机应变”式新框架：本质仍是保持自由裁量权</h2><p>除了表示“很快”就开始加息外，1月会议基本放弃了前瞻性指引。</p><p>鲍威尔先是在发布会上表示不排除每次会议都加息的可能性，将最为严重的情况抛了出来，但随后美联储官员陆续发表讲话，风格又更加温和和留有余地。</p><p>目前，基本上所有官员都对3月加息50个基点进行了回击，大多数官员似乎都在暗示今年大约将加息4次，每次25个基点。</p><p>很多官员也表达了<b>政策将遵循数据</b>的信号：</p><blockquote>亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克一开始表示如有必要可以一次加息50基点，但随后又立马“改口”称，加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动；他在英国《金融时报》的一篇文章中表示，希望2022年加息三次，<b>但不排除其他可能性。</b></blockquote><blockquote>他还表示：“我认为主席想要传达的信息是：<b>我们没有走上任何特定的轨道。数据会告诉我们发生了什么。</b>”</blockquote><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里1月28日表示：“我们希望物价压力会随着供应链问题解决而自然得到缓解，这意味着美联储不得不做得更少。现在，委员会已经发出信号，大多数官员认为今年可能会有三次加息，每次大约25个基点。<b>但是，我们必须看到相应的数据。</b>”</blockquote><blockquote>旧金山联储主席戴利1月31日表示：“多多参考才是合适的。假设2022年加息4次，利率达到1.25%，这是相当大的紧缩，但也是系统中留下的相当大的空间，因为中性利率是2.5%，这仍然在支持经济，而不是造成破坏。<b>我认为这种平衡是应对我们面临的不确定性的恰当方式。</b>”</blockquote><blockquote>费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克2月1日表示：“我们能一次加息50个基点吗？可以的。但我们应该吗？我现在不太确定这一点……<b>如果通胀保持在现在的水平，并继续下降，我不认为会加息50个基点。</b>”</blockquote><p>瑞银认为，<b>官员们以季度加息开始，回避了市场每次会议都加息的推断，保留了以后加速或放缓政策的选项。</b></p><p>目前瑞银的基线预测是，FOMC将通过今年每个季度（3月、6月、9月和12月）加息25个基点来撤走宽松政策，并在5月的FOMC会议（或可能不迟于7月的会议）上开始缩减资产负债表。</p><p>然而，该行认为，<b>这条路径将高度依赖于数据，尤其是通胀数据以及反映通胀前景的数据。其中，5月份的通胀数据将是影响政策走向的分水岭：</b></p><blockquote>如果上半年（一直到5月）通胀数据出人意料地继续上升，那么在今年下半年，FOMC可能会从季度加息转向每次会议加息的节奏，6月FOMC会议可能会开始传达7月加息的信号，然后在随后的会议上，根据需要，连续加息25个基点。</blockquote><blockquote>反过来，如果下半年通胀开始走软，FOMC也可能会暂停加息。</blockquote><p>这表明，新框架保留了美联储今年下半年所需的“灵活应变”的选择权，而从本质上看，美联储仍是在保持自由裁量权。</p><h2>这次真的不一样？</h2><p>美联储一直避免使用某种固定的规则来约束自己的货币政策决策，如在耶伦时期，为了保持自由裁量权，美联储常常推动理论先行，以创新性的学术研究成果来对框架不断更新。</p><p>到了鲍威尔时代，尤其在疫情爆发后，这样的倾向更加明显。媒体甚至用“鲍威尔的美联储仿佛格林斯潘时的模样”来形容鲍威尔强调自由裁量，拒绝条条框框。</p><p>但是自由裁量权有其缺点。在没有坚定承诺的情况下，美联储更难让市场相信，其实现2%的通胀目标是认真的。</p><p>不过，瑞银认为，<b>如今美联储的“数据依赖”与之前20年的情况截然不同</b>，在耶伦作为联储主席的时期，尽管美联储政策有着非常明确的“数据依赖性”，耶伦经常说，“政策并没有按照预先设定的路线走”，但当时的加息路径基本上遵循了一种稳定、可预测的模式。</p><p>比如2015年6月，旧金山联储主席Williams在当时的FOMC会议后发表讲话说：“这对利率意味着什么？正如我所说的，政策是依赖数据的。”演讲以“我不能告诉你具体加息日期……但无论如何我不能……”结束。</p><p>但在那次会议上，美联储对2015年第四季度GDP的预测中值为1.8%-2.0%。最终结果证明，四季度GDP为1.9%。</p><p>这说明，当时的美联储对经济数据很大程度上是有掌控的，美联储是可以预先设定政策路径的，然而这一次真的不一样。</p><p>因为在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。</p><p>拿最关键的通胀数据来说，<b>近期费城联储调查的专业预测员对2021年第四季度GDP平减指数</b>（衡量通货膨胀的常用指标）<b>的预测离散度，高达金融危机期间的峰值。</b>这种不确定性的增加让人想起上世纪90年代之前的那些年，也就是所谓的“通胀大缓和”之前的几十年。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当下对于未来通胀的预期，分析师存在很多分歧，疫情导致的供应链中断无疑是其中的扰乱因素之一。</p><p>除此之外，有分析师认为，与“通胀大缓和”时期菲利普斯曲线平坦化（指失业率下降，并没有带来通胀率的上升）相对的是，如今的经济环境——全球化趋势已经在2008年出现逆转，资本要素价格下行面临零利率约束，全球人口红利渐行渐远，老龄化社会的负担越来越重，货币政策也悄然降低了稳通胀的权重，货币当局不仅面临着更复杂的权衡，还需谨慎维护其独立性，这些因素都是呼唤通胀回归和菲利普斯曲线“复活”的力量。</p><p>今天的美联储面临着更大的挑战，经济前景更加不确定，宏观经济数据的波动性要大得多。在专业预测人士眼中，即使是对已经过去的第四季度，经济预测分歧也非常大。</p><p>因此，瑞银认为，在“大缓和”时期，数据依赖可能是一种逃避，但<b>当前背景下的数据依赖性是必要的。</b>考虑到广泛的不确定性和数据波动性，FOMC别无选择。</p><h2>政策将有更不稳定的风险</h2><p>虽然美联储“随机应变”式的新框架有助于其及时应对各种可能的结果，但重复一下前文，自由裁量权是有其缺点的，对于市场而言，这种灵活性也意味着更少的可预测性，可能更少的规律性。</p><p>除此之外，如果央行依赖于数据，而数据相比近代历史更不稳定，这意味着政策也有更不稳定的风险，这也代表着宏观经济波动的另一个来源。</p><p>而瑞银表示，<b>央行对波动性加剧的数据的依赖，将是宏观经济新时代的一部分。</b></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这次真的不一样？如何理解美联储“随机应变”式新框架</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这次真的不一样？如何理解美联储“随机应变”式新框架\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-10 20:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（\"nimble\"），不排除任何选择。鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210980598","content_text":"摘要：2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（\"nimble\"），不排除任何选择。鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的前景去做决定”。这番表述给市场营造了一种不确定的氛围：美联储今年到底会加息几次？前几次会议是否会大幅加息50个基点？缩表的时间点？这些问题仍然不明确。瑞银分析师Jonathan Pingle在最近的报告中指出，1月FOMC会议在回答哪条政策利率路径最为合适时，重点提到了灵活应变（nimble），这意味着2022美联储货币政策从“新常态”转变为“灵活应变”，并将加速转向“数据依赖性”。这听上去与耶伦当年强调加息将基于经济数据的理念似曾相似，也似乎可以对应到更早一点的“自由裁量权”（discretion）。那么，如何理解美联储这种“随机应变”式新框架？瑞银认为这一次与耶伦时期的“数据依赖”不一样，那到底哪儿不一样？对于市场来说意味着什么？“随机应变”式新框架：本质仍是保持自由裁量权除了表示“很快”就开始加息外，1月会议基本放弃了前瞻性指引。鲍威尔先是在发布会上表示不排除每次会议都加息的可能性，将最为严重的情况抛了出来，但随后美联储官员陆续发表讲话，风格又更加温和和留有余地。目前，基本上所有官员都对3月加息50个基点进行了回击，大多数官员似乎都在暗示今年大约将加息4次，每次25个基点。很多官员也表达了政策将遵循数据的信号：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克一开始表示如有必要可以一次加息50基点，但随后又立马“改口”称，加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动；他在英国《金融时报》的一篇文章中表示，希望2022年加息三次，但不排除其他可能性。他还表示：“我认为主席想要传达的信息是：我们没有走上任何特定的轨道。数据会告诉我们发生了什么。”明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里1月28日表示：“我们希望物价压力会随着供应链问题解决而自然得到缓解，这意味着美联储不得不做得更少。现在，委员会已经发出信号，大多数官员认为今年可能会有三次加息，每次大约25个基点。但是，我们必须看到相应的数据。”旧金山联储主席戴利1月31日表示：“多多参考才是合适的。假设2022年加息4次，利率达到1.25%，这是相当大的紧缩，但也是系统中留下的相当大的空间，因为中性利率是2.5%，这仍然在支持经济，而不是造成破坏。我认为这种平衡是应对我们面临的不确定性的恰当方式。”费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克2月1日表示：“我们能一次加息50个基点吗？可以的。但我们应该吗？我现在不太确定这一点……如果通胀保持在现在的水平，并继续下降，我不认为会加息50个基点。”瑞银认为，官员们以季度加息开始，回避了市场每次会议都加息的推断，保留了以后加速或放缓政策的选项。目前瑞银的基线预测是，FOMC将通过今年每个季度（3月、6月、9月和12月）加息25个基点来撤走宽松政策，并在5月的FOMC会议（或可能不迟于7月的会议）上开始缩减资产负债表。然而，该行认为，这条路径将高度依赖于数据，尤其是通胀数据以及反映通胀前景的数据。其中，5月份的通胀数据将是影响政策走向的分水岭：如果上半年（一直到5月）通胀数据出人意料地继续上升，那么在今年下半年，FOMC可能会从季度加息转向每次会议加息的节奏，6月FOMC会议可能会开始传达7月加息的信号，然后在随后的会议上，根据需要，连续加息25个基点。反过来，如果下半年通胀开始走软，FOMC也可能会暂停加息。这表明，新框架保留了美联储今年下半年所需的“灵活应变”的选择权，而从本质上看，美联储仍是在保持自由裁量权。这次真的不一样？美联储一直避免使用某种固定的规则来约束自己的货币政策决策，如在耶伦时期，为了保持自由裁量权，美联储常常推动理论先行，以创新性的学术研究成果来对框架不断更新。到了鲍威尔时代，尤其在疫情爆发后，这样的倾向更加明显。媒体甚至用“鲍威尔的美联储仿佛格林斯潘时的模样”来形容鲍威尔强调自由裁量，拒绝条条框框。但是自由裁量权有其缺点。在没有坚定承诺的情况下，美联储更难让市场相信，其实现2%的通胀目标是认真的。不过，瑞银认为，如今美联储的“数据依赖”与之前20年的情况截然不同，在耶伦作为联储主席的时期，尽管美联储政策有着非常明确的“数据依赖性”，耶伦经常说，“政策并没有按照预先设定的路线走”，但当时的加息路径基本上遵循了一种稳定、可预测的模式。比如2015年6月，旧金山联储主席Williams在当时的FOMC会议后发表讲话说：“这对利率意味着什么？正如我所说的，政策是依赖数据的。”演讲以“我不能告诉你具体加息日期……但无论如何我不能……”结束。但在那次会议上，美联储对2015年第四季度GDP的预测中值为1.8%-2.0%。最终结果证明，四季度GDP为1.9%。这说明，当时的美联储对经济数据很大程度上是有掌控的，美联储是可以预先设定政策路径的，然而这一次真的不一样。因为在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。拿最关键的通胀数据来说，近期费城联储调查的专业预测员对2021年第四季度GDP平减指数（衡量通货膨胀的常用指标）的预测离散度，高达金融危机期间的峰值。这种不确定性的增加让人想起上世纪90年代之前的那些年，也就是所谓的“通胀大缓和”之前的几十年。当下对于未来通胀的预期，分析师存在很多分歧，疫情导致的供应链中断无疑是其中的扰乱因素之一。除此之外，有分析师认为，与“通胀大缓和”时期菲利普斯曲线平坦化（指失业率下降，并没有带来通胀率的上升）相对的是，如今的经济环境——全球化趋势已经在2008年出现逆转，资本要素价格下行面临零利率约束，全球人口红利渐行渐远，老龄化社会的负担越来越重，货币政策也悄然降低了稳通胀的权重，货币当局不仅面临着更复杂的权衡，还需谨慎维护其独立性，这些因素都是呼唤通胀回归和菲利普斯曲线“复活”的力量。今天的美联储面临着更大的挑战，经济前景更加不确定，宏观经济数据的波动性要大得多。在专业预测人士眼中，即使是对已经过去的第四季度，经济预测分歧也非常大。因此，瑞银认为，在“大缓和”时期，数据依赖可能是一种逃避，但当前背景下的数据依赖性是必要的。考虑到广泛的不确定性和数据波动性，FOMC别无选择。政策将有更不稳定的风险虽然美联储“随机应变”式的新框架有助于其及时应对各种可能的结果，但重复一下前文，自由裁量权是有其缺点的，对于市场而言，这种灵活性也意味着更少的可预测性，可能更少的规律性。除此之外，如果央行依赖于数据，而数据相比近代历史更不稳定，这意味着政策也有更不稳定的风险，这也代表着宏观经济波动的另一个来源。而瑞银表示，央行对波动性加剧的数据的依赖，将是宏观经济新时代的一部分。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091587062,"gmtCreate":1643900334650,"gmtModify":1676533869444,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091587062","repostId":"2208360102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208360102","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1643859305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208360102?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-03 11:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛认为当下是美股“逢低买入”良机，依据在哪里？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208360102","media":"Wind万得","summary":"如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>标准普尔500指数(S&amp;P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”</p><p>美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。</p><p>Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”</p><p>均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。</p><p>这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。</p><p>在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。</p><p>据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。</p><p>该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。</p><p>不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛认为当下是美股“逢低买入”良机，依据在哪里？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛认为当下是美股“逢低买入”良机，依据在哪里？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-03 11:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>标准普尔500指数(S&amp;P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”</p><p>美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。</p><p>Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”</p><p>均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。</p><p>这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。</p><p>在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。</p><p>据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。</p><p>该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。</p><p>不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208360102","content_text":"标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961197985,"gmtCreate":1668870400347,"gmtModify":1676538123254,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961197985","repostId":"2284770337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284770337","pubTimestamp":1668823624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284770337?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-19 10:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Coinbase Stock Is Down Another 7% on Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284770337","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The cryptocurrency exchange is sinking again after another analyst chimed in about its potential downsides.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>What happened</h2><p>Amid the crypto market turmoil generated by the collapse of FTX, many investors are worried about how its fellow exchange operator <b>Coinbase</b> will perform from here. This week has been a mixed bag. Coinbase stock initially surged on the expectation that the bankruptcy of a key competitor could lead to the U.S.-focused crypto exchange gaining market share. But over the course of  Wednesday and Thursday, the company&#39;s shares sank by more than 12%. The declines continued Friday morning, with Coinbase stock plunging by another 7.1% as of 11:58 a.m. ET.</p><p>Friday&#39;s decline appears to have been spurred by a bearish analyst note from <b>Bank of America</b>. Analyst Jason Kupferberg slashed the price target on Coinbase from $77 per share to $50 per share, and cut its rating from buy to neutral. Last week, <b>Goldman Sachs</b> slashed its price target on Coinbase to $41 per share from $49 per share, and maintained its sell rating.</p><h2>So what</h2><p>It&#39;s clear that analysts have reason to be bearish about Coinbase. While it&#39;s one of the most prominent centralized crypto exchanges, contagion fears have put investors and analysts in a difficult position. On the one hand, FTX&#39;s implosion offers the potential for Coinbase to capture more market share and trading volume. On the other, declining aggregate trading activity and systemic risks may lead to further valuation compression, at least in the near term.</p><p>Interestingly, neither the Bank of America nor the Goldman Sachs analysts are worried that Coinbase will be the next FTX, and they generally took the view that it&#39;s relatively well-insulated from the FTX fallout. However, the Bank of America note succinctly summarized three risks for those holding Coinbase stock right now: &#34;Dampened trading activity thanks to weaker confidence in crypto, delayed regulatory clarity and the possibility that contagion leads to an even wider fallout for the industry.&#34;</p><h2>Now what</h2><p>Coinbase&#39;s stock price has been under pressure throughout the year due primarily to its underwhelming earnings results and concerns around potential margin degradation. In that sense, the fallout from the FTX collapse could be seen as a net positive, as that exchange was among the lowest-fee options for traders, and therefore put downward pressure on its peers&#39; trading fees.</p><p>That said, this year&#39;s underperformance has led Coinbase management to undertake multiple rounds of layoffs. It has cut more than 18% of its workforce so far. Like many other tech companies, Coinbase appears to have built an infrastructure that&#39;s too big for the current market. With crypto valuations remaining on a bearish trajectory, it&#39;s unclear whether trading volumes will eventually recover, or whether they will remain permanently stunted.</p><p>In this market, investors appear to be taking a similar view to Wall Street analysts. Trading at roughly $46 per share, Coinbase is now within spitting distance of its all-time low.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Coinbase Stock Is Down Another 7% on Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Coinbase Stock Is Down Another 7% on Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-19 10:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/18/why-coinbase-stock-is-down-another-7-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happenedAmid the crypto market turmoil generated by the collapse of FTX, many investors are worried about how its fellow exchange operator Coinbase will perform from here. This week has been a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/18/why-coinbase-stock-is-down-another-7-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/18/why-coinbase-stock-is-down-another-7-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284770337","content_text":"What happenedAmid the crypto market turmoil generated by the collapse of FTX, many investors are worried about how its fellow exchange operator Coinbase will perform from here. This week has been a mixed bag. Coinbase stock initially surged on the expectation that the bankruptcy of a key competitor could lead to the U.S.-focused crypto exchange gaining market share. But over the course of  Wednesday and Thursday, the company's shares sank by more than 12%. The declines continued Friday morning, with Coinbase stock plunging by another 7.1% as of 11:58 a.m. ET.Friday's decline appears to have been spurred by a bearish analyst note from Bank of America. Analyst Jason Kupferberg slashed the price target on Coinbase from $77 per share to $50 per share, and cut its rating from buy to neutral. Last week, Goldman Sachs slashed its price target on Coinbase to $41 per share from $49 per share, and maintained its sell rating.So whatIt's clear that analysts have reason to be bearish about Coinbase. While it's one of the most prominent centralized crypto exchanges, contagion fears have put investors and analysts in a difficult position. On the one hand, FTX's implosion offers the potential for Coinbase to capture more market share and trading volume. On the other, declining aggregate trading activity and systemic risks may lead to further valuation compression, at least in the near term.Interestingly, neither the Bank of America nor the Goldman Sachs analysts are worried that Coinbase will be the next FTX, and they generally took the view that it's relatively well-insulated from the FTX fallout. However, the Bank of America note succinctly summarized three risks for those holding Coinbase stock right now: \"Dampened trading activity thanks to weaker confidence in crypto, delayed regulatory clarity and the possibility that contagion leads to an even wider fallout for the industry.\"Now whatCoinbase's stock price has been under pressure throughout the year due primarily to its underwhelming earnings results and concerns around potential margin degradation. In that sense, the fallout from the FTX collapse could be seen as a net positive, as that exchange was among the lowest-fee options for traders, and therefore put downward pressure on its peers' trading fees.That said, this year's underperformance has led Coinbase management to undertake multiple rounds of layoffs. It has cut more than 18% of its workforce so far. Like many other tech companies, Coinbase appears to have built an infrastructure that's too big for the current market. With crypto valuations remaining on a bearish trajectory, it's unclear whether trading volumes will eventually recover, or whether they will remain permanently stunted.In this market, investors appear to be taking a similar view to Wall Street analysts. Trading at roughly $46 per share, Coinbase is now within spitting distance of its all-time low.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057359803,"gmtCreate":1655469904402,"gmtModify":1676535645663,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057359803","repostId":"1112682991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112682991","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1655445814,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112682991?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 14:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"衰退担忧再起，何时能有转机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112682991","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"周四美股并未能延续6月FOMC会议后相对积极的反应，再度转为大幅回调，纳斯达克指数大跌4%，标普500指数跌幅也超过3.2%，结合美债利率明显回落（从3.4%降至3.2%）以及黄金相应上涨的表现，都说","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周四美股并未能延续6月FOMC会议后相对积极的反应，再度转为大幅回调，纳斯达克指数大跌4%，标普500指数跌幅也超过3.2%，结合美债利率明显回落（从3.4%降至3.2%）以及黄金相应上涨的表现，<b>都说明市场的交易逻辑在转向担心美联储过快加息后可能引发更快的衰退担忧。</b></p><p>市场的这一反应倒并不让我们完全意外，我们在FOMC会议后的点评《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》中也提到，在当前给定紧缩路径和通胀的环境下，市场更为关心的是美联储能否实现软着陆。<b>基于增长、紧缩和通胀的约束，我们预计三季度市场仍将面临一个紧绷的局面，美股市场维持震荡偏弱格局，在出现转机前可能还不是趋势逆转。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179264f4fbb8a87a09d766e74de30cda\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9001ad82853fa10eced5700c847a646\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"14\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>因此，现在的核心在于，<b>在未来一段时间紧缩仍将加码、通胀维持高位的背景下，增长多快滑向衰退？后续转机则在于若最终增长放缓和衰退难以避免，紧缩政策又何时可以退坡或转向？</b></p><p><b>1.增长衰退的风险有多大？按目前加息路径，年底或明年初压力显现</b></p><p>尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上表示，主动引导衰退并不会是美联储的主观意愿[1]，也就是意味着美联储并不希望以“牺牲”增长的方式来实现对通胀的控制，但实际的情况是，快速加息所带来的利率抬升，本来就会通过金融条件收紧来抑制需求，例如最为典型的例子就是房贷利率伴随着紧缩预期快速上行，目前已经对成屋和新屋销售产生了明显的抑制效果（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。在此过程中，美股企业盈利的放缓也是大方向（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c680c4d4371f353d0ea7aa942e7a189a\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6e0e2dfa1a29bee3e30ff3d758af2a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不难看出，在货币紧缩的过程中，叠加当前高通胀对消费需求的抑制、高库存对企业利润率的挤压，<b>增长趋缓的大方向恐怕是难以避免的，但问题是有多快？</b></p><p><b>这其中的变化就在于金融条件收紧的速度。</b>如果美联储想要在主观意愿上“牺牲”增长来实现对通胀控制的目的，不仅会更快的将金融条件转正（对应基准利率超过自然利率R*、或融资成本超过投资回报率），而且也会抬升的更高，类似于70年代末和80年代初。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f302a30e33b96abef549e8c66f3f01\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>因此，金融条件的松紧程度可以作为判断衰退压力的领先指标，也可以用于测算时间。我们基于上述中性利率和金融条件的概念，从3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本与投资回报率两个维度测算，<b>按照当前的加息步伐（6月加息75bp后，7月可能继续加息75bp，9月加息50bp），3m10s有可能会在三季度之后逐步倒挂，</b>而根据历史经验看，倒挂后也可能对应后续衰退的来临；另一方面，企业实际融资成本一般要超过投资回报率250bp以后衰退压力增加（《美国距离衰退风险有多远？》），目前来看可能对应年末或者明年初。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49c2cced4027cb527c48335ce292909\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ee29f2cb45b3261357f5042b81ba116\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.何时能出现转机契机？看政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，目前路径到年底</b></p><p>既然增长放缓甚至衰退的压力也在逐渐放大，那么何时能够出现转机？</p><p><b>我们认为转机的出现并不完全在于完全避免衰退，而更多在于政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，类似于2019年初美联储开始传递鸽派信号时的情形</b>。此时，尽管距离美联储真正降息（7~9月）还有半年多的时间，而美国的增长再度企稳向好也要到三季度，但是市场尤其是债券和成长股风格可以建立在预期先行的逻辑上先行企稳甚至反弹。1994年美联储一年内快速加息300bp最终没有使得市场以“崩盘”收场一定程度上也是得益于此（《如果美联储一次加息50bp》）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b557cc7d1d9a5658c21412d9c54a0d9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12768b7f892d35278baac71027b05\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>根据6月FOMC会议给出的加息路径和点阵图信息看，这一拐点可能要到年底11~12月会议才会出现</b>。此前市场预期9月份之后可以逐步降速，但上周末超预期的通胀数据迫使美联储不得不引导更为陡峭的紧缩路径，进而推后了这一时间的到来。</p><p><b>后续这一时点是否还会被推后又或者存在一定提前的可能性，高度依赖通胀路径</b>。美国通胀在9月份之后将重新迎来一波新的高基数，如果不出现新的意外（例如地缘局势、油价再度大涨、供应链冲击等等），我们预计年底CPI同比可能逐步将至6%左右，明年初有望回到4%附近，如果这一路径能够兑现，则可以为美联储在年底降速提供可能。反之，任何其他意外的扰动使得通胀路径再度失控，则都将使得当前的局面再度失控，紧缩和衰退压力也将进一步增加。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e89f8d308b526ed510c4db990114b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd7c6fd9892a114ad2ed1040bc4fd41\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>综合上述对于通胀路径、增长衰退以及紧缩转机时点的判断，我们维持在《2H22海外展望：从衰退担忧到软着陆可能？》中<b>认为三季度市场依然可能面临通胀、紧缩、增长这个“不可能三角”下紧绷状态的判断，同时观察四季度和年末是否能够出现转机</b>。如果转机出现，有可能成为美债长端利率筑顶、以及市场风格重新转向成长的契机。</p><p>主要资产在经历了急剧的波动后，不排除有所反复，但在上述转机出现前可能还不是趋势的逆转。自我们上周五通胀数据超预期后分别上调美债点位和下调美股目标以来，市场的走向基本与我们的预期一致（《更大的紧缩压力，更小的腾挪空间》），基于当前的加息路径，<b>我们维持美债利率3.5%中枢的预测</b>，除非后续加息路径再度改变；<b>美股市场整体震荡偏弱，仍或有一定下行空间</b>（我们测算合理估值14.5倍 vs.当前15.3倍；预计5%的动态盈利贡献），但也当前并非一个流动性危机。<b>美元的偏强和黄金的偏弱亦是如此</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d5dfc253227e69ffa24b9e3f407615\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9fee76649eb81c371af8e3cb192675\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>衰退担忧再起，何时能有转机？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n衰退担忧再起，何时能有转机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-17 14:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周四美股并未能延续6月FOMC会议后相对积极的反应，再度转为大幅回调，纳斯达克指数大跌4%，标普500指数跌幅也超过3.2%，结合美债利率明显回落（从3.4%降至3.2%）以及黄金相应上涨的表现，<b>都说明市场的交易逻辑在转向担心美联储过快加息后可能引发更快的衰退担忧。</b></p><p>市场的这一反应倒并不让我们完全意外，我们在FOMC会议后的点评《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》中也提到，在当前给定紧缩路径和通胀的环境下，市场更为关心的是美联储能否实现软着陆。<b>基于增长、紧缩和通胀的约束，我们预计三季度市场仍将面临一个紧绷的局面，美股市场维持震荡偏弱格局，在出现转机前可能还不是趋势逆转。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179264f4fbb8a87a09d766e74de30cda\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9001ad82853fa10eced5700c847a646\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"14\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>因此，现在的核心在于，<b>在未来一段时间紧缩仍将加码、通胀维持高位的背景下，增长多快滑向衰退？后续转机则在于若最终增长放缓和衰退难以避免，紧缩政策又何时可以退坡或转向？</b></p><p><b>1.增长衰退的风险有多大？按目前加息路径，年底或明年初压力显现</b></p><p>尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上表示，主动引导衰退并不会是美联储的主观意愿[1]，也就是意味着美联储并不希望以“牺牲”增长的方式来实现对通胀的控制，但实际的情况是，快速加息所带来的利率抬升，本来就会通过金融条件收紧来抑制需求，例如最为典型的例子就是房贷利率伴随着紧缩预期快速上行，目前已经对成屋和新屋销售产生了明显的抑制效果（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。在此过程中，美股企业盈利的放缓也是大方向（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c680c4d4371f353d0ea7aa942e7a189a\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6e0e2dfa1a29bee3e30ff3d758af2a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不难看出，在货币紧缩的过程中，叠加当前高通胀对消费需求的抑制、高库存对企业利润率的挤压，<b>增长趋缓的大方向恐怕是难以避免的，但问题是有多快？</b></p><p><b>这其中的变化就在于金融条件收紧的速度。</b>如果美联储想要在主观意愿上“牺牲”增长来实现对通胀控制的目的，不仅会更快的将金融条件转正（对应基准利率超过自然利率R*、或融资成本超过投资回报率），而且也会抬升的更高，类似于70年代末和80年代初。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f302a30e33b96abef549e8c66f3f01\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>因此，金融条件的松紧程度可以作为判断衰退压力的领先指标，也可以用于测算时间。我们基于上述中性利率和金融条件的概念，从3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本与投资回报率两个维度测算，<b>按照当前的加息步伐（6月加息75bp后，7月可能继续加息75bp，9月加息50bp），3m10s有可能会在三季度之后逐步倒挂，</b>而根据历史经验看，倒挂后也可能对应后续衰退的来临；另一方面，企业实际融资成本一般要超过投资回报率250bp以后衰退压力增加（《美国距离衰退风险有多远？》），目前来看可能对应年末或者明年初。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49c2cced4027cb527c48335ce292909\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ee29f2cb45b3261357f5042b81ba116\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.何时能出现转机契机？看政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，目前路径到年底</b></p><p>既然增长放缓甚至衰退的压力也在逐渐放大，那么何时能够出现转机？</p><p><b>我们认为转机的出现并不完全在于完全避免衰退，而更多在于政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，类似于2019年初美联储开始传递鸽派信号时的情形</b>。此时，尽管距离美联储真正降息（7~9月）还有半年多的时间，而美国的增长再度企稳向好也要到三季度，但是市场尤其是债券和成长股风格可以建立在预期先行的逻辑上先行企稳甚至反弹。1994年美联储一年内快速加息300bp最终没有使得市场以“崩盘”收场一定程度上也是得益于此（《如果美联储一次加息50bp》）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b557cc7d1d9a5658c21412d9c54a0d9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12768b7f892d35278baac71027b05\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>根据6月FOMC会议给出的加息路径和点阵图信息看，这一拐点可能要到年底11~12月会议才会出现</b>。此前市场预期9月份之后可以逐步降速，但上周末超预期的通胀数据迫使美联储不得不引导更为陡峭的紧缩路径，进而推后了这一时间的到来。</p><p><b>后续这一时点是否还会被推后又或者存在一定提前的可能性，高度依赖通胀路径</b>。美国通胀在9月份之后将重新迎来一波新的高基数，如果不出现新的意外（例如地缘局势、油价再度大涨、供应链冲击等等），我们预计年底CPI同比可能逐步将至6%左右，明年初有望回到4%附近，如果这一路径能够兑现，则可以为美联储在年底降速提供可能。反之，任何其他意外的扰动使得通胀路径再度失控，则都将使得当前的局面再度失控，紧缩和衰退压力也将进一步增加。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e89f8d308b526ed510c4db990114b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd7c6fd9892a114ad2ed1040bc4fd41\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>综合上述对于通胀路径、增长衰退以及紧缩转机时点的判断，我们维持在《2H22海外展望：从衰退担忧到软着陆可能？》中<b>认为三季度市场依然可能面临通胀、紧缩、增长这个“不可能三角”下紧绷状态的判断，同时观察四季度和年末是否能够出现转机</b>。如果转机出现，有可能成为美债长端利率筑顶、以及市场风格重新转向成长的契机。</p><p>主要资产在经历了急剧的波动后，不排除有所反复，但在上述转机出现前可能还不是趋势的逆转。自我们上周五通胀数据超预期后分别上调美债点位和下调美股目标以来，市场的走向基本与我们的预期一致（《更大的紧缩压力，更小的腾挪空间》），基于当前的加息路径，<b>我们维持美债利率3.5%中枢的预测</b>，除非后续加息路径再度改变；<b>美股市场整体震荡偏弱，仍或有一定下行空间</b>（我们测算合理估值14.5倍 vs.当前15.3倍；预计5%的动态盈利贡献），但也当前并非一个流动性危机。<b>美元的偏强和黄金的偏弱亦是如此</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d5dfc253227e69ffa24b9e3f407615\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9fee76649eb81c371af8e3cb192675\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfddc04822f87c80fc564a554e4c2907","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112682991","content_text":"周四美股并未能延续6月FOMC会议后相对积极的反应，再度转为大幅回调，纳斯达克指数大跌4%，标普500指数跌幅也超过3.2%，结合美债利率明显回落（从3.4%降至3.2%）以及黄金相应上涨的表现，都说明市场的交易逻辑在转向担心美联储过快加息后可能引发更快的衰退担忧。市场的这一反应倒并不让我们完全意外，我们在FOMC会议后的点评《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》中也提到，在当前给定紧缩路径和通胀的环境下，市场更为关心的是美联储能否实现软着陆。基于增长、紧缩和通胀的约束，我们预计三季度市场仍将面临一个紧绷的局面，美股市场维持震荡偏弱格局，在出现转机前可能还不是趋势逆转。因此，现在的核心在于，在未来一段时间紧缩仍将加码、通胀维持高位的背景下，增长多快滑向衰退？后续转机则在于若最终增长放缓和衰退难以避免，紧缩政策又何时可以退坡或转向？1.增长衰退的风险有多大？按目前加息路径，年底或明年初压力显现尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上表示，主动引导衰退并不会是美联储的主观意愿[1]，也就是意味着美联储并不希望以“牺牲”增长的方式来实现对通胀的控制，但实际的情况是，快速加息所带来的利率抬升，本来就会通过金融条件收紧来抑制需求，例如最为典型的例子就是房贷利率伴随着紧缩预期快速上行，目前已经对成屋和新屋销售产生了明显的抑制效果（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。在此过程中，美股企业盈利的放缓也是大方向（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。不难看出，在货币紧缩的过程中，叠加当前高通胀对消费需求的抑制、高库存对企业利润率的挤压，增长趋缓的大方向恐怕是难以避免的，但问题是有多快？这其中的变化就在于金融条件收紧的速度。如果美联储想要在主观意愿上“牺牲”增长来实现对通胀控制的目的，不仅会更快的将金融条件转正（对应基准利率超过自然利率R*、或融资成本超过投资回报率），而且也会抬升的更高，类似于70年代末和80年代初。因此，金融条件的松紧程度可以作为判断衰退压力的领先指标，也可以用于测算时间。我们基于上述中性利率和金融条件的概念，从3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本与投资回报率两个维度测算，按照当前的加息步伐（6月加息75bp后，7月可能继续加息75bp，9月加息50bp），3m10s有可能会在三季度之后逐步倒挂，而根据历史经验看，倒挂后也可能对应后续衰退的来临；另一方面，企业实际融资成本一般要超过投资回报率250bp以后衰退压力增加（《美国距离衰退风险有多远？》），目前来看可能对应年末或者明年初。2.何时能出现转机契机？看政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，目前路径到年底既然增长放缓甚至衰退的压力也在逐渐放大，那么何时能够出现转机？我们认为转机的出现并不完全在于完全避免衰退，而更多在于政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，类似于2019年初美联储开始传递鸽派信号时的情形。此时，尽管距离美联储真正降息（7~9月）还有半年多的时间，而美国的增长再度企稳向好也要到三季度，但是市场尤其是债券和成长股风格可以建立在预期先行的逻辑上先行企稳甚至反弹。1994年美联储一年内快速加息300bp最终没有使得市场以“崩盘”收场一定程度上也是得益于此（《如果美联储一次加息50bp》）。根据6月FOMC会议给出的加息路径和点阵图信息看，这一拐点可能要到年底11~12月会议才会出现。此前市场预期9月份之后可以逐步降速，但上周末超预期的通胀数据迫使美联储不得不引导更为陡峭的紧缩路径，进而推后了这一时间的到来。后续这一时点是否还会被推后又或者存在一定提前的可能性，高度依赖通胀路径。美国通胀在9月份之后将重新迎来一波新的高基数，如果不出现新的意外（例如地缘局势、油价再度大涨、供应链冲击等等），我们预计年底CPI同比可能逐步将至6%左右，明年初有望回到4%附近，如果这一路径能够兑现，则可以为美联储在年底降速提供可能。反之，任何其他意外的扰动使得通胀路径再度失控，则都将使得当前的局面再度失控，紧缩和衰退压力也将进一步增加。综合上述对于通胀路径、增长衰退以及紧缩转机时点的判断，我们维持在《2H22海外展望：从衰退担忧到软着陆可能？》中认为三季度市场依然可能面临通胀、紧缩、增长这个“不可能三角”下紧绷状态的判断，同时观察四季度和年末是否能够出现转机。如果转机出现，有可能成为美债长端利率筑顶、以及市场风格重新转向成长的契机。主要资产在经历了急剧的波动后，不排除有所反复，但在上述转机出现前可能还不是趋势的逆转。自我们上周五通胀数据超预期后分别上调美债点位和下调美股目标以来，市场的走向基本与我们的预期一致（《更大的紧缩压力，更小的腾挪空间》），基于当前的加息路径，我们维持美债利率3.5%中枢的预测，除非后续加息路径再度改变；美股市场整体震荡偏弱，仍或有一定下行空间（我们测算合理估值14.5倍 vs.当前15.3倍；预计5%的动态盈利贡献），但也当前并非一个流动性危机。美元的偏强和黄金的偏弱亦是如此。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059664913,"gmtCreate":1654357554632,"gmtModify":1676535435914,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059664913","repostId":"1154917667","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033682465,"gmtCreate":1646267158121,"gmtModify":1676534110056,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033682465","repostId":"1102002059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102002059","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646264963,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102002059?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨 | 美油近十年新高！苹果迎来春季发布会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102002059","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①隔夜美股三大指数均涨超1%；②能源股、大型科技股集体上涨；③欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高，一度飙升60%；④鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p>1、美三大股指集体涨超1%！能源科技股走高</p><p>美股周三大幅收高。美联储主席鲍威尔称支持在3月会议上加息25个基点，打消了市场对美联储激进加息的担忧。联储褐皮书报告称美国经济活动以适度至温和的步伐扩张。俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。截至收盘，纳涨1.62%，道指涨1.79%，标普涨1.86%。</p><p>能源股集体上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>涨超3%。科技股走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>涨超8%</p><p>2、热门中概涨跌互现 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌近11%</p><p>热门中概股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌1.19%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌1.41%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌1.56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌1.96%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌2.06%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌3.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌4.34%，贝壳跌10.96%，微博涨2.01%。</p><p>中概旅游、澳门博彩等板块上扬，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">金沙集团</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">新濠博亚娱乐</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">携程网</a>涨超8%。</p><p>3、欧股全线收涨 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.37%</p><p>欧股普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.73%，法国CAC40指数涨1.59%，英国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">富时100指数</a>涨1.37%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.43%。</p><p>4、美国WTI原油突破110美元 创2011年5月以来最高收盘价</p><p>美国原油期货价格周三录得连续第三个交易日上涨，并创10多年来的最高收盘价。俄乌进展局势尚未看到缓解迹象，令市场担心全球原油供应可能受到干扰。</p><p>最终，周四纽约商品交易所4月交割的WTI上涨7.19美元，涨幅近7%，收于每桶110.60美元。根据FactSet机构数据，这是自2011年5月以来近月合约的最高收盘价。</p><p>5、黄金期货收跌1.1% 白银下跌1.4%</p><p>俄乌准备恢复谈判的消息暂时降低了避险需求。根据CME的美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储几乎肯定加息25个基点，上涨50个基点的可能性为3.7%。</p><p>最终，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌21.50美元，跌幅为1.1%，收于每盎司1922.30美元。5月白银期货价格下跌35美分，跌幅为1.4%，收于每盎司25.19美元。</p><p>6、走出冬天不代表能源危机解除：欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高 一度飙升60%</p><p>当地时间周三（3月2日），欧洲天然气价格盘中突破纪录高位，交易商担心俄乌冲突升级可能导致天然气供应中断。荷兰TTF基准天然气期货价格一度跳涨至每兆瓦时194欧元（约合215美元），较周二收盘价的涨幅达到60%，两倍于上周五的收盘价。</p><p>英国ICIS的市场分析师Alex Froley表示，从俄罗斯流向欧洲的天然气管道正在正常进行，但很多不确定因素让交易商和投资者担忧。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、一文读懂鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点</p><p>当地时间3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会众议院金融服务委员会，为美联储半年度货币政策报告提供证词并接受议员质询。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。</p><p>鲍威尔表示，目前仍支持3月加息25个基点的计划，同时预期能够在缩减资产负债表的问题上取得进展，但不会最终敲定这一事项。同时鲍威尔也强调，目前美联储的预期是今年通胀将会见顶并回落，如果通胀持续高于这一目标，美联储也准备好在未来一次或多次会议中以更激进的方式加息。</p><p>2、白宫公布针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的最新制裁措施细节</p><p>美国白宫当地时间3月2日公布了一系列针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯最新经济制裁措施的细节，包括对白俄罗斯实施出口管制政策，以防止科技软件和技术通过白俄罗斯流入俄罗斯。白宫称，此举将“严重限制俄罗斯和白俄罗斯获得（对乌军事行动）所需材料的能力”。</p><p>3、联合国大会通过乌克兰局势决议草案 要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军</p><p>联合国大会紧急特别会议通过了由乌克兰等超过90国共同提交的乌克兰局势决议草案。此决议除要求俄罗斯“立即、彻底、无条件”从乌克兰撤军外，还加入了针对白俄罗斯的相关条文。由于联合国大会决议除部分涉联合国自身运行项目外，对会员国没有法律约束力，因此该决议执行情况有待观察。</p><p>4、ADP数据显示美国企业2月份新增就业人数超过预期</p><p>美国2月ADP就业人数增加47.5万人，预估为增加38.8万人，前值为减少30.1万人。</p><p>5、美联储褐皮书：通胀猛于虎，1月到2月经济温和扩张</p><p>美联储经济状况褐皮书指出，自1月中旬以来，经济活动一直在以适度至温和的速度扩张。企业报告称，预计未来几个月物价还会上涨，成本上升和招聘困难持续存在。</p><p>6、加拿大央行如期加息并暗示会继续提高利率 暂未启动缩表</p><p>面对处于30年高位的通胀率，加拿大央行宣布加息25基点，并暗示还会进一步提高利率。</p><p>央行行长Tiff Macklem等官员决定将隔夜基准利率上调至0.5％，基本符合市场预期。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。</p><p>这是加拿大自2018年以来首次加息，一些人预计这将是该行三年前开始实施通胀目标制以来节奏最快的加息周期之一。市场押注政策利率到6月最高将触及1％，明年此时料达到1.75％。</p><p>7、欧佩克+同意4月增产40万桶/日</p><p>欧佩克+同意按照现有计划将4月份石油产量提高40万桶/日，下一次欧佩克会议将在3月31日举行。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>信息署：上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零</p><p>美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，美国2月25日当周EIA原油库存下降259.7万桶，预期会增加250万桶，之前一周增加451.4万桶。此外，美国能源信息署称，上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零。</p><p>9、美国针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施技术出口管制</p><p>白宫表示，美国将针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施出口管制，这是支持俄罗斯军方的一个重要收入来源。通过对石油和天然气开采设备实施出口管制，美国商务部将对长期而言支持俄罗斯炼油能力的技术出口施加限制。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">苹果将于3月9日召开新品发布会，新款iPhone SE要来了？</a></p><p>北京时间3月3日凌晨，苹果公司发布邀请函，官宣将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>时间3月8日上午10点，北京时间3月9日凌晨2点召开新品发布会，此次发布会的主题是「Peek performance」，中文主题「高能传递」。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉加码澳洲锂矿，未来四年供应11万吨锂辉石精矿</a></p><p>澳锂矿商Core Lithium周三宣布与特斯拉达成供应协议，将在4年内向特斯拉供应高达11万吨的锂辉石精矿。</p><p>Core Lithium表示，向特斯拉的供应计划预计将于2023年下半年开始。目前，全球汽车制造商都在竞相确保用于制造电动汽车的零部件的供应。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">福特将分开运营电动车和内燃机业务，使电动车业务利润最大化</a></p><p>据路透，三位知情人士称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周三将宣布一项重组计划，根据该计划，其电动车和内燃机业务将分开运营，此举旨在让电动车业务实现利润最大化，并以更快的速度发展。福特将任命高管来领导每项业务，这些业务将有独立的名称，福特还将概述公司整体的最新利润率目标。一位消息人士称，福特的想法是最终分别报告电动车和内燃机车业务的业绩。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix宣布6500万欧元收购芬兰游戏开发商Next Games</a></p><p>3月2日消息，Netflix宣布已达成收购芬兰游戏开发商 Next Games 的合并协议，该交易预计将于 2022 年第二季度完成。根据协议，Netflix 即将启动收购要约，以收购 Next Games 的所有已发行和流通股。</p><p>根据要约，Next Games股东将获得每股 Next Games 2.10 欧元的现金，总价值约为 6500 万欧元。Next Games董事会一致决定建议股东接受要约收购。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake营收增长放缓，盘后跌逾22%</a></p><p>Snowflake第四季度总营收为3.838亿美元，同比增长101%；净亏损为1.322亿美元，与去年同期的净亏损1.989亿美元相比有所收窄，Snowflake盘后暴跌 22%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨 | 美油近十年新高！苹果迎来春季发布会</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨 | 美油近十年新高！苹果迎来春季发布会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-03 07:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①隔夜美股三大指数均涨超1%；②能源股、大型科技股集体上涨；③欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高，一度飙升60%；④鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p>1、美三大股指集体涨超1%！能源科技股走高</p><p>美股周三大幅收高。美联储主席鲍威尔称支持在3月会议上加息25个基点，打消了市场对美联储激进加息的担忧。联储褐皮书报告称美国经济活动以适度至温和的步伐扩张。俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。截至收盘，纳涨1.62%，道指涨1.79%，标普涨1.86%。</p><p>能源股集体上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>涨超3%。科技股走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>涨超8%</p><p>2、热门中概涨跌互现 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌近11%</p><p>热门中概股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌1.19%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌1.41%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌1.56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌1.96%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌2.06%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌3.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌4.34%，贝壳跌10.96%，微博涨2.01%。</p><p>中概旅游、澳门博彩等板块上扬，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">金沙集团</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">新濠博亚娱乐</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">携程网</a>涨超8%。</p><p>3、欧股全线收涨 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.37%</p><p>欧股普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.73%，法国CAC40指数涨1.59%，英国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">富时100指数</a>涨1.37%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.43%。</p><p>4、美国WTI原油突破110美元 创2011年5月以来最高收盘价</p><p>美国原油期货价格周三录得连续第三个交易日上涨，并创10多年来的最高收盘价。俄乌进展局势尚未看到缓解迹象，令市场担心全球原油供应可能受到干扰。</p><p>最终，周四纽约商品交易所4月交割的WTI上涨7.19美元，涨幅近7%，收于每桶110.60美元。根据FactSet机构数据，这是自2011年5月以来近月合约的最高收盘价。</p><p>5、黄金期货收跌1.1% 白银下跌1.4%</p><p>俄乌准备恢复谈判的消息暂时降低了避险需求。根据CME的美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储几乎肯定加息25个基点，上涨50个基点的可能性为3.7%。</p><p>最终，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌21.50美元，跌幅为1.1%，收于每盎司1922.30美元。5月白银期货价格下跌35美分，跌幅为1.4%，收于每盎司25.19美元。</p><p>6、走出冬天不代表能源危机解除：欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高 一度飙升60%</p><p>当地时间周三（3月2日），欧洲天然气价格盘中突破纪录高位，交易商担心俄乌冲突升级可能导致天然气供应中断。荷兰TTF基准天然气期货价格一度跳涨至每兆瓦时194欧元（约合215美元），较周二收盘价的涨幅达到60%，两倍于上周五的收盘价。</p><p>英国ICIS的市场分析师Alex Froley表示，从俄罗斯流向欧洲的天然气管道正在正常进行，但很多不确定因素让交易商和投资者担忧。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、一文读懂鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点</p><p>当地时间3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会众议院金融服务委员会，为美联储半年度货币政策报告提供证词并接受议员质询。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。</p><p>鲍威尔表示，目前仍支持3月加息25个基点的计划，同时预期能够在缩减资产负债表的问题上取得进展，但不会最终敲定这一事项。同时鲍威尔也强调，目前美联储的预期是今年通胀将会见顶并回落，如果通胀持续高于这一目标，美联储也准备好在未来一次或多次会议中以更激进的方式加息。</p><p>2、白宫公布针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的最新制裁措施细节</p><p>美国白宫当地时间3月2日公布了一系列针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯最新经济制裁措施的细节，包括对白俄罗斯实施出口管制政策，以防止科技软件和技术通过白俄罗斯流入俄罗斯。白宫称，此举将“严重限制俄罗斯和白俄罗斯获得（对乌军事行动）所需材料的能力”。</p><p>3、联合国大会通过乌克兰局势决议草案 要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军</p><p>联合国大会紧急特别会议通过了由乌克兰等超过90国共同提交的乌克兰局势决议草案。此决议除要求俄罗斯“立即、彻底、无条件”从乌克兰撤军外，还加入了针对白俄罗斯的相关条文。由于联合国大会决议除部分涉联合国自身运行项目外，对会员国没有法律约束力，因此该决议执行情况有待观察。</p><p>4、ADP数据显示美国企业2月份新增就业人数超过预期</p><p>美国2月ADP就业人数增加47.5万人，预估为增加38.8万人，前值为减少30.1万人。</p><p>5、美联储褐皮书：通胀猛于虎，1月到2月经济温和扩张</p><p>美联储经济状况褐皮书指出，自1月中旬以来，经济活动一直在以适度至温和的速度扩张。企业报告称，预计未来几个月物价还会上涨，成本上升和招聘困难持续存在。</p><p>6、加拿大央行如期加息并暗示会继续提高利率 暂未启动缩表</p><p>面对处于30年高位的通胀率，加拿大央行宣布加息25基点，并暗示还会进一步提高利率。</p><p>央行行长Tiff Macklem等官员决定将隔夜基准利率上调至0.5％，基本符合市场预期。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。</p><p>这是加拿大自2018年以来首次加息，一些人预计这将是该行三年前开始实施通胀目标制以来节奏最快的加息周期之一。市场押注政策利率到6月最高将触及1％，明年此时料达到1.75％。</p><p>7、欧佩克+同意4月增产40万桶/日</p><p>欧佩克+同意按照现有计划将4月份石油产量提高40万桶/日，下一次欧佩克会议将在3月31日举行。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>信息署：上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零</p><p>美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，美国2月25日当周EIA原油库存下降259.7万桶，预期会增加250万桶，之前一周增加451.4万桶。此外，美国能源信息署称，上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零。</p><p>9、美国针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施技术出口管制</p><p>白宫表示，美国将针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施出口管制，这是支持俄罗斯军方的一个重要收入来源。通过对石油和天然气开采设备实施出口管制，美国商务部将对长期而言支持俄罗斯炼油能力的技术出口施加限制。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">苹果将于3月9日召开新品发布会，新款iPhone SE要来了？</a></p><p>北京时间3月3日凌晨，苹果公司发布邀请函，官宣将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>时间3月8日上午10点，北京时间3月9日凌晨2点召开新品发布会，此次发布会的主题是「Peek performance」，中文主题「高能传递」。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉加码澳洲锂矿，未来四年供应11万吨锂辉石精矿</a></p><p>澳锂矿商Core Lithium周三宣布与特斯拉达成供应协议，将在4年内向特斯拉供应高达11万吨的锂辉石精矿。</p><p>Core Lithium表示，向特斯拉的供应计划预计将于2023年下半年开始。目前，全球汽车制造商都在竞相确保用于制造电动汽车的零部件的供应。</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">福特将分开运营电动车和内燃机业务，使电动车业务利润最大化</a></p><p>据路透，三位知情人士称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周三将宣布一项重组计划，根据该计划，其电动车和内燃机业务将分开运营，此举旨在让电动车业务实现利润最大化，并以更快的速度发展。福特将任命高管来领导每项业务，这些业务将有独立的名称，福特还将概述公司整体的最新利润率目标。一位消息人士称，福特的想法是最终分别报告电动车和内燃机车业务的业绩。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix宣布6500万欧元收购芬兰游戏开发商Next Games</a></p><p>3月2日消息，Netflix宣布已达成收购芬兰游戏开发商 Next Games 的合并协议，该交易预计将于 2022 年第二季度完成。根据协议，Netflix 即将启动收购要约，以收购 Next Games 的所有已发行和流通股。</p><p>根据要约，Next Games股东将获得每股 Next Games 2.10 欧元的现金，总价值约为 6500 万欧元。Next Games董事会一致决定建议股东接受要约收购。</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake营收增长放缓，盘后跌逾22%</a></p><p>Snowflake第四季度总营收为3.838亿美元，同比增长101%；净亏损为1.322亿美元，与去年同期的净亏损1.989亿美元相比有所收窄，Snowflake盘后暴跌 22%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK4515":"5G概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4566":"资本集团",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102002059","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股三大指数均涨超1%；②能源股、大型科技股集体上涨；③欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高，一度飙升60%；④鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点。海外市场1、美三大股指集体涨超1%！能源科技股走高美股周三大幅收高。美联储主席鲍威尔称支持在3月会议上加息25个基点，打消了市场对美联储激进加息的担忧。联储褐皮书报告称美国经济活动以适度至温和的步伐扩张。俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。截至收盘，纳涨1.62%，道指涨1.79%，标普涨1.86%。能源股集体上涨，斯伦贝谢涨超4%，西方石油涨超3%。科技股走高，苹果涨超2%，美光科技涨超8%2、热门中概涨跌互现 贝壳跌近11%热门中概股涨跌不一，网易跌1.19%，百度跌1.41%，阿里巴巴跌1.56%，滴滴跌1.96%，京东跌2.06%，哔哩哔哩跌3.33%，拼多多跌4.34%，贝壳跌10.96%，微博涨2.01%。中概旅游、澳门博彩等板块上扬，金沙集团涨超10%，新濠博亚娱乐涨超9%，携程网涨超8%。3、欧股全线收涨 英国富时100指数涨1.37%欧股普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.73%，法国CAC40指数涨1.59%，英国富时100指数涨1.37%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.43%。4、美国WTI原油突破110美元 创2011年5月以来最高收盘价美国原油期货价格周三录得连续第三个交易日上涨，并创10多年来的最高收盘价。俄乌进展局势尚未看到缓解迹象，令市场担心全球原油供应可能受到干扰。最终，周四纽约商品交易所4月交割的WTI上涨7.19美元，涨幅近7%，收于每桶110.60美元。根据FactSet机构数据，这是自2011年5月以来近月合约的最高收盘价。5、黄金期货收跌1.1% 白银下跌1.4%俄乌准备恢复谈判的消息暂时降低了避险需求。根据CME的美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储几乎肯定加息25个基点，上涨50个基点的可能性为3.7%。最终，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌21.50美元，跌幅为1.1%，收于每盎司1922.30美元。5月白银期货价格下跌35美分，跌幅为1.4%，收于每盎司25.19美元。6、走出冬天不代表能源危机解除：欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高 一度飙升60%当地时间周三（3月2日），欧洲天然气价格盘中突破纪录高位，交易商担心俄乌冲突升级可能导致天然气供应中断。荷兰TTF基准天然气期货价格一度跳涨至每兆瓦时194欧元（约合215美元），较周二收盘价的涨幅达到60%，两倍于上周五的收盘价。英国ICIS的市场分析师Alex Froley表示，从俄罗斯流向欧洲的天然气管道正在正常进行，但很多不确定因素让交易商和投资者担忧。国际宏观1、一文读懂鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点当地时间3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会众议院金融服务委员会，为美联储半年度货币政策报告提供证词并接受议员质询。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。鲍威尔表示，目前仍支持3月加息25个基点的计划，同时预期能够在缩减资产负债表的问题上取得进展，但不会最终敲定这一事项。同时鲍威尔也强调，目前美联储的预期是今年通胀将会见顶并回落，如果通胀持续高于这一目标，美联储也准备好在未来一次或多次会议中以更激进的方式加息。2、白宫公布针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的最新制裁措施细节美国白宫当地时间3月2日公布了一系列针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯最新经济制裁措施的细节，包括对白俄罗斯实施出口管制政策，以防止科技软件和技术通过白俄罗斯流入俄罗斯。白宫称，此举将“严重限制俄罗斯和白俄罗斯获得（对乌军事行动）所需材料的能力”。3、联合国大会通过乌克兰局势决议草案 要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军联合国大会紧急特别会议通过了由乌克兰等超过90国共同提交的乌克兰局势决议草案。此决议除要求俄罗斯“立即、彻底、无条件”从乌克兰撤军外，还加入了针对白俄罗斯的相关条文。由于联合国大会决议除部分涉联合国自身运行项目外，对会员国没有法律约束力，因此该决议执行情况有待观察。4、ADP数据显示美国企业2月份新增就业人数超过预期美国2月ADP就业人数增加47.5万人，预估为增加38.8万人，前值为减少30.1万人。5、美联储褐皮书：通胀猛于虎，1月到2月经济温和扩张美联储经济状况褐皮书指出，自1月中旬以来，经济活动一直在以适度至温和的速度扩张。企业报告称，预计未来几个月物价还会上涨，成本上升和招聘困难持续存在。6、加拿大央行如期加息并暗示会继续提高利率 暂未启动缩表面对处于30年高位的通胀率，加拿大央行宣布加息25基点，并暗示还会进一步提高利率。央行行长Tiff Macklem等官员决定将隔夜基准利率上调至0.5％，基本符合市场预期。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。这是加拿大自2018年以来首次加息，一些人预计这将是该行三年前开始实施通胀目标制以来节奏最快的加息周期之一。市场押注政策利率到6月最高将触及1％，明年此时料达到1.75％。7、欧佩克+同意4月增产40万桶/日欧佩克+同意按照现有计划将4月份石油产量提高40万桶/日，下一次欧佩克会议将在3月31日举行。8、美国能源信息署：上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，美国2月25日当周EIA原油库存下降259.7万桶，预期会增加250万桶，之前一周增加451.4万桶。此外，美国能源信息署称，上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零。9、美国针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施技术出口管制白宫表示，美国将针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施出口管制，这是支持俄罗斯军方的一个重要收入来源。通过对石油和天然气开采设备实施出口管制，美国商务部将对长期而言支持俄罗斯炼油能力的技术出口施加限制。公司新闻1、苹果将于3月9日召开新品发布会，新款iPhone SE要来了？北京时间3月3日凌晨，苹果公司发布邀请函，官宣将于太平洋时间3月8日上午10点，北京时间3月9日凌晨2点召开新品发布会，此次发布会的主题是「Peek performance」，中文主题「高能传递」。2、特斯拉加码澳洲锂矿，未来四年供应11万吨锂辉石精矿澳锂矿商Core Lithium周三宣布与特斯拉达成供应协议，将在4年内向特斯拉供应高达11万吨的锂辉石精矿。Core Lithium表示，向特斯拉的供应计划预计将于2023年下半年开始。目前，全球汽车制造商都在竞相确保用于制造电动汽车的零部件的供应。3、福特将分开运营电动车和内燃机业务，使电动车业务利润最大化据路透，三位知情人士称，福特汽车周三将宣布一项重组计划，根据该计划，其电动车和内燃机业务将分开运营，此举旨在让电动车业务实现利润最大化，并以更快的速度发展。福特将任命高管来领导每项业务，这些业务将有独立的名称，福特还将概述公司整体的最新利润率目标。一位消息人士称，福特的想法是最终分别报告电动车和内燃机车业务的业绩。4、Netflix宣布6500万欧元收购芬兰游戏开发商Next Games3月2日消息，Netflix宣布已达成收购芬兰游戏开发商 Next Games 的合并协议，该交易预计将于 2022 年第二季度完成。根据协议，Netflix 即将启动收购要约，以收购 Next Games 的所有已发行和流通股。根据要约，Next Games股东将获得每股 Next Games 2.10 欧元的现金，总价值约为 6500 万欧元。Next Games董事会一致决定建议股东接受要约收购。5、Snowflake营收增长放缓，盘后跌逾22%Snowflake第四季度总营收为3.838亿美元，同比增长101%；净亏损为1.322亿美元，与去年同期的净亏损1.989亿美元相比有所收窄，Snowflake盘后暴跌 22%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030392601,"gmtCreate":1645627703245,"gmtModify":1676534046676,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030392601","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"事关全球经济！俄乌冲突升级的4点影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。</blockquote><p>事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。</p><p>核心结论：</p><p>1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。</p><p>2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。</p><p>3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：</p><blockquote>对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。</blockquote><blockquote>对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。</blockquote><blockquote>对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。</blockquote><blockquote>对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。</blockquote><p>正文如下：</p><p>1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱</p><p>为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&amp;叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：</p><p>股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；</p><p>黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；</p><p>铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。</p><p>3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏</p><p>1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。</p><p>2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势</p><p>美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。</p><p>1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。</p><p>2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&amp;企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>事关全球经济！俄乌冲突升级的4点影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n事关全球经济！俄乌冲突升级的4点影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-23 11:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565><strong>熊园观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","UNG":"美国天然气基金","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097673287,"gmtCreate":1645456042638,"gmtModify":1676534029441,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097673287","repostId":"2212677275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2212677275","pubTimestamp":1645411504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212677275?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴！紧缩周期中美股会如何表现？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？</blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。<b>但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，<b>当前美股市场估值偏高。</b></p><p>事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。</p><p>更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。</p><p>考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好</b></p><p>美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。</p><p>在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。</p><p>非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。</p><p><b>历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。</b></p><p>在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>小盘股表现优于大盘股</p><p>美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。</p><p><b>加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。</b>但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。</p><p>同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。</p><p>美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。</p><p><b>此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票&gt;债券，价值股&gt;成长股，大盘股=小盘股。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴！紧缩周期中美股会如何表现？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴！紧缩周期中美股会如何表现？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-21 10:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004106474,"gmtCreate":1642519808450,"gmtModify":1676533718367,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004106474","repostId":"1163230636","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163230636","pubTimestamp":1642463918,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163230636?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-18 07:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"频繁减持背后有玄机？万亿投资帝国“藏着”腾讯半条命","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163230636","media":"公司资本论","summary":"近日，腾讯在不到半月的时间内，接连减持了其投资业务重要的投资标的份额。1月4日，腾讯宣布减持了号称东南亚“小腾讯”的新加坡上市公司Sea的股份，该公司旗下拥有东南亚最大的游戏平台Garena和最大的电","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近日，腾讯在不到半月的时间内，接连减持了其投资业务重要的投资标的份额。</p><p>1月4日，腾讯宣布减持了号称东南亚“小腾讯”的新加坡上市公司Sea的股份，该公司旗下拥有东南亚最大的游戏平台Garena和最大的电商平台Shopee。</p><p>就在此不久前，腾讯又宣布拟几近“清仓式”减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>股份。2021年12月23日，腾讯宣布将所持有的约4.6亿股京东股份作为中期股息派发给腾讯股东，腾讯持股比例将由17%降至2.3%，并将退出大股东行列。</p><p>近期，又有媒体曝出的小马哥“凡尔赛式”自言腾讯普通引起市场一片哗然。据悉，去年底的员工大会上，马化腾表示，腾讯只是国家社会大发展期间的一家普通公司，是国家发展浪潮下的受益者，并不是什么基础服务，随时都可以被替换。</p><p>去年可谓是互联网监管元年。腾讯这接二连三的减持动作，加上小马哥的“普通”论调，市场纷纷揣测这究竟传递了什么信号？投资者最为担忧的是，腾讯会不会由此进一步收缩其投资业务。</p><p>我们作为普通投资者又该如何重新审视腾讯的投资逻辑？我们要判断其影响大小首先看看其投资业务究竟究竟多大。</p><p><b>万亿投资帝国藏着腾讯“半条命”</b></p><p>自3Q大战过后，腾讯就确立了“流量+资本”双循环模式。即腾讯以微信、QQ社交为流量入口，由游戏、广告、云服务等自营业务积累的资本金，通过买买买的方式，用资本杠杆撬动新的流量延伸复用场景，实现利益最大化。</p><p>根据腾讯3Q21财报披露数据显示，其投资类资产账面价值8221亿元左右。而根据外部数据显示，腾讯投资版图的总市值超过10万亿元。</p><p>目前腾讯投资上市企业约100家，投资布局围绕公司战略和主营业务演进，覆盖消费互联网和产业互联网。截至2020年末，恒生科技指数成分股中公司及其投资公司占比近 1/3，中国互联网 TOP10市值公司中有一半是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>投资公司（美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、快手、京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>）。</p><p>据天眼查数据显示，在过去10多年中，腾讯总计投资了800多家公司，包括100多家上市企业和独角兽企业。其中，仅其所投资的48家上市公司的总市值就高达11.62万亿元，相当于腾讯总市值的3.33倍、377家科创板公司总市值的1.86倍、1090家创业板公司的83%。</p><p>事实上，根据腾讯报表披露的投资业务，其报表反映的仅仅是账面价值，实际公允价值并未完全反映出来。</p><p>腾讯的股权投资在财务上分为“于联营企业的投资”、“于合营企业的投资”、“以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他全面收益的投资”、“以公允价值计量且其变动计入损益的投资”四项。</p><p>根据香港的会计准则，腾讯将大部分股权投资划入联营企业投资和以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他全面收益的投资。而小比例持股的上市公司则计入以公允价值计量变动计入当期损益项目中。这样的好处是什么呢？</p><p>对于联营、合营企业采用成本法入账，即当初投资时投入的成本为资产的初始账面金额，后续采用权益法。这意味着，被投资上市企业股价的波动起伏不会对腾讯报表产生剧烈波动影响，而只有在腾讯真正处置转让该股权的时候，投资收益才会在利润表中显现出来。</p><p>而对于而绝大部分的非上市公司股权被划入以公允价值计量且其变动计入损益的投资。对于非上市公司而言，准确的价值评估是很难做到的，这更多的取决于财务人员的主观判断以及管理层的意愿，这里面人为可控空间大，让报表业绩稳健“可控”。</p><p>正是由于腾讯这种所谓“谨慎”的财务处理，仅仅依靠其账面值去判断显然是会将其低估。我们发现，联营企业的账面成本与公允值溢价率在3-5倍之间。如果我们按照公允价值预估，Q321的投资类项目公允值大致超过1.75万元。而目前腾讯市场4.5万亿元左右，这相当于腾讯投资类业务“藏着”将近半个腾讯的市值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5717e38e9425bda2d57e41d447a00779\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></p><p><b>互联网界的“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>”还在进击？</b></p><p>对于腾讯而言，最不缺的就是流量。</p><p>截至2021Q3，公司拥有中国用户数最多的社交应用微信（2021年9月微信及Wechat月活跃账户达12.63亿）和QQ（2021年9月QQ移动端月活跃账户达5.74亿）。2021年9月，公司系关联应用共428个，去重总用户数11.05亿。</p><p>庞大的流量池，最需要的就是多元变现场景，腾讯除了游戏比较能打，像电商这类高价值的变现场景腾讯似乎并没有拿下。直到公司确立“流量+资本”的战略，腾讯似乎找到了流量最大化“新密钥”。即以流量流入，低价换取股权，最终享受企业成长硕果。</p><p>以京东为例，腾讯于去年宣布减持的京东股份价值超过1000亿元，该笔投资的历史总成本约52亿美元，按目前京东市值，腾讯浮盈高达约900亿元，整体收益率约为273%。</p><p>业内人士表示，腾讯的投资模式更接近于PE，而不是VC，只找那些有较大概率成功的企业，再用流量入口和产业协同给予支持，能使投资对象在几年内就迅速做大，且成功率超高。腾讯依赖庞大流量池，通过投资延伸变现新场景，如今发展成了目前最大的互联网PE/VC，甚至被人称为互联网界的“伯克希尔”。</p><p>超额的回报收益，资本似乎容易让人“上瘾”。即便是在2021年的资本监管元年，腾讯的投资业务依然在加强。</p><p>根据相关报道，2020年，腾讯投资业务的投资额继续翻倍，达到了286亿元。2021年全年，腾讯累计投资301笔，平均每1.2天出手一次，比2020年多了百起，创下了历史之最。同期，阿里的投资业务似乎有所收敛，仅仅只有49起。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b1ba8e2947de8dc0239269d5959f727\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>来源：公开信息源</b></p><p>其实，从以前腾讯的投资版图看，衣食住行似乎都被腾讯囊括。据腾讯在年报中介绍公司的部分投资领域，有互联网、互联网游戏、直播、软件、视频、音乐、文学、互联网汽车金融交易平台、金融科技、小额贷款、运输网络、零售及新零售、电动汽车、可持续能源生产、互联网医疗保健及量子计算等等。</p><p>值得一提的是，2021年其投资业务占比最大为其主业游戏。据悉，根据数量占比统计，腾讯投资2021年的游戏相关项目总计拿到腾讯76笔投资，占腾讯全年投资总数的25.2%，位居首位。</p><p>如今，腾讯投资业务陆续减持，其似乎是对投资业务收缩。然而，从2021年腾讯的投资业务出击数量看，又并未见明显收敛之势，腾讯的投资业务究竟是腾笼换鸟还是其他呢？</p><p>投资业务，对于腾讯而言，在其流量优势的加持下，不仅使其生态丰富，也让流量价值活动最大化，无疑是公司目前构建核心竞争壁垒的要素之一。如果投资业务真的走向收缩，从腾讯的报表特征可以看出，被低估的投资收益或最终一次性在报表上反馈，短期股东回报而言，显然是利好；而对于长期而言，一旦腾讯失去资本这个生态壁垒，流量复用价值是否有新的场景承载，其未来商业变现价值究竟几何，腾讯估值或将面临重新审视。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1569226699776","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>频繁减持背后有玄机？万亿投资帝国“藏着”腾讯半条命</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n频繁减持背后有玄机？万亿投资帝国“藏着”腾讯半条命\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-18 07:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/trmSMWMn6Pf0gXk3zrxs6Q><strong>公司资本论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，腾讯在不到半月的时间内，接连减持了其投资业务重要的投资标的份额。1月4日，腾讯宣布减持了号称东南亚“小腾讯”的新加坡上市公司Sea的股份，该公司旗下拥有东南亚最大的游戏平台Garena和最大的电商平台Shopee。就在此不久前，腾讯又宣布拟几近“清仓式”减持京东股份。2021年12月23日，腾讯宣布将所持有的约4.6亿股京东股份作为中期股息派发给腾讯股东，腾讯持股比例将由17%降至2.3%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/trmSMWMn6Pf0gXk3zrxs6Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6740b3f2ec47fb1092a235484a4a61c","relate_stocks":{"BK1589":"北水核心资产","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK1586":"云计算","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK1502":"双十一","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1517":"云办公","BK1526":"科网股","00700":"腾讯控股","BK1531":"手游股","BK1591":"就地过年概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/trmSMWMn6Pf0gXk3zrxs6Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163230636","content_text":"近日，腾讯在不到半月的时间内，接连减持了其投资业务重要的投资标的份额。1月4日，腾讯宣布减持了号称东南亚“小腾讯”的新加坡上市公司Sea的股份，该公司旗下拥有东南亚最大的游戏平台Garena和最大的电商平台Shopee。就在此不久前，腾讯又宣布拟几近“清仓式”减持京东股份。2021年12月23日，腾讯宣布将所持有的约4.6亿股京东股份作为中期股息派发给腾讯股东，腾讯持股比例将由17%降至2.3%，并将退出大股东行列。近期，又有媒体曝出的小马哥“凡尔赛式”自言腾讯普通引起市场一片哗然。据悉，去年底的员工大会上，马化腾表示，腾讯只是国家社会大发展期间的一家普通公司，是国家发展浪潮下的受益者，并不是什么基础服务，随时都可以被替换。去年可谓是互联网监管元年。腾讯这接二连三的减持动作，加上小马哥的“普通”论调，市场纷纷揣测这究竟传递了什么信号？投资者最为担忧的是，腾讯会不会由此进一步收缩其投资业务。我们作为普通投资者又该如何重新审视腾讯的投资逻辑？我们要判断其影响大小首先看看其投资业务究竟究竟多大。万亿投资帝国藏着腾讯“半条命”自3Q大战过后，腾讯就确立了“流量+资本”双循环模式。即腾讯以微信、QQ社交为流量入口，由游戏、广告、云服务等自营业务积累的资本金，通过买买买的方式，用资本杠杆撬动新的流量延伸复用场景，实现利益最大化。根据腾讯3Q21财报披露数据显示，其投资类资产账面价值8221亿元左右。而根据外部数据显示，腾讯投资版图的总市值超过10万亿元。目前腾讯投资上市企业约100家，投资布局围绕公司战略和主营业务演进，覆盖消费互联网和产业互联网。截至2020年末，恒生科技指数成分股中公司及其投资公司占比近 1/3，中国互联网 TOP10市值公司中有一半是腾讯控股投资公司（美团、拼多多、快手、京东、贝壳）。据天眼查数据显示，在过去10多年中，腾讯总计投资了800多家公司，包括100多家上市企业和独角兽企业。其中，仅其所投资的48家上市公司的总市值就高达11.62万亿元，相当于腾讯总市值的3.33倍、377家科创板公司总市值的1.86倍、1090家创业板公司的83%。事实上，根据腾讯报表披露的投资业务，其报表反映的仅仅是账面价值，实际公允价值并未完全反映出来。腾讯的股权投资在财务上分为“于联营企业的投资”、“于合营企业的投资”、“以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他全面收益的投资”、“以公允价值计量且其变动计入损益的投资”四项。根据香港的会计准则，腾讯将大部分股权投资划入联营企业投资和以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他全面收益的投资。而小比例持股的上市公司则计入以公允价值计量变动计入当期损益项目中。这样的好处是什么呢？对于联营、合营企业采用成本法入账，即当初投资时投入的成本为资产的初始账面金额，后续采用权益法。这意味着，被投资上市企业股价的波动起伏不会对腾讯报表产生剧烈波动影响，而只有在腾讯真正处置转让该股权的时候，投资收益才会在利润表中显现出来。而对于而绝大部分的非上市公司股权被划入以公允价值计量且其变动计入损益的投资。对于非上市公司而言，准确的价值评估是很难做到的，这更多的取决于财务人员的主观判断以及管理层的意愿，这里面人为可控空间大，让报表业绩稳健“可控”。正是由于腾讯这种所谓“谨慎”的财务处理，仅仅依靠其账面值去判断显然是会将其低估。我们发现，联营企业的账面成本与公允值溢价率在3-5倍之间。如果我们按照公允价值预估，Q321的投资类项目公允值大致超过1.75万元。而目前腾讯市场4.5万亿元左右，这相当于腾讯投资类业务“藏着”将近半个腾讯的市值。互联网界的“伯克希尔”还在进击？对于腾讯而言，最不缺的就是流量。截至2021Q3，公司拥有中国用户数最多的社交应用微信（2021年9月微信及Wechat月活跃账户达12.63亿）和QQ（2021年9月QQ移动端月活跃账户达5.74亿）。2021年9月，公司系关联应用共428个，去重总用户数11.05亿。庞大的流量池，最需要的就是多元变现场景，腾讯除了游戏比较能打，像电商这类高价值的变现场景腾讯似乎并没有拿下。直到公司确立“流量+资本”的战略，腾讯似乎找到了流量最大化“新密钥”。即以流量流入，低价换取股权，最终享受企业成长硕果。以京东为例，腾讯于去年宣布减持的京东股份价值超过1000亿元，该笔投资的历史总成本约52亿美元，按目前京东市值，腾讯浮盈高达约900亿元，整体收益率约为273%。业内人士表示，腾讯的投资模式更接近于PE，而不是VC，只找那些有较大概率成功的企业，再用流量入口和产业协同给予支持，能使投资对象在几年内就迅速做大，且成功率超高。腾讯依赖庞大流量池，通过投资延伸变现新场景，如今发展成了目前最大的互联网PE/VC，甚至被人称为互联网界的“伯克希尔”。超额的回报收益，资本似乎容易让人“上瘾”。即便是在2021年的资本监管元年，腾讯的投资业务依然在加强。根据相关报道，2020年，腾讯投资业务的投资额继续翻倍，达到了286亿元。2021年全年，腾讯累计投资301笔，平均每1.2天出手一次，比2020年多了百起，创下了历史之最。同期，阿里的投资业务似乎有所收敛，仅仅只有49起。来源：公开信息源其实，从以前腾讯的投资版图看，衣食住行似乎都被腾讯囊括。据腾讯在年报中介绍公司的部分投资领域，有互联网、互联网游戏、直播、软件、视频、音乐、文学、互联网汽车金融交易平台、金融科技、小额贷款、运输网络、零售及新零售、电动汽车、可持续能源生产、互联网医疗保健及量子计算等等。值得一提的是，2021年其投资业务占比最大为其主业游戏。据悉，根据数量占比统计，腾讯投资2021年的游戏相关项目总计拿到腾讯76笔投资，占腾讯全年投资总数的25.2%，位居首位。如今，腾讯投资业务陆续减持，其似乎是对投资业务收缩。然而，从2021年腾讯的投资业务出击数量看，又并未见明显收敛之势，腾讯的投资业务究竟是腾笼换鸟还是其他呢？投资业务，对于腾讯而言，在其流量优势的加持下，不仅使其生态丰富，也让流量价值活动最大化，无疑是公司目前构建核心竞争壁垒的要素之一。如果投资业务真的走向收缩，从腾讯的报表特征可以看出，被低估的投资收益或最终一次性在报表上反馈，短期股东回报而言，显然是利好；而对于长期而言，一旦腾讯失去资本这个生态壁垒，流量复用价值是否有新的场景承载，其未来商业变现价值究竟几何，腾讯估值或将面临重新审视。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002658484,"gmtCreate":1642000753093,"gmtModify":1676533670610,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002658484","repostId":"1124764834","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}