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2021-08-04
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Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday
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2021-07-17
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STI.SI\">$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STI.SI\">$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ </a> ","text":"$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276858517827808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890321589,"gmtCreate":1628084417341,"gmtModify":1703500901454,"author":{"id":"3576763132816745","authorId":"3576763132816745","name":"Salmon555","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac69c0e083b447608761d386bc87ae67","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576763132816745","authorIdStr":"3576763132816745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890321589","repostId":"1163400390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163400390","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628077338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163400390?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163400390","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)\n(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its ","content":"<p><i>(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)</i></p>\n<p>(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its 42nd record close of the year, as investors weighstrong corporate earningsagainst the potentialthreat of the Delta variantof Covid-19.</p>\n<p>At 08:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 76 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis fell 7 points, or 0.16% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slid 9 points, or 0.06% .</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f1103ecd5b5a67bec56afafdc8276f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket：</b></p>\n<p><b>1) General Motors(GM)</b> – General Motors missed the consensus estimate of $2.23 per share with an adjusted second-quarter profit of $1.97 per share, though revenue did top Wall Street forecasts. GM did raise its forecast for the remainder of the year, based on strong demand and pricing. GM initially fell 3% in the premarket but then bounced back to recover most of that loss.</p>\n<p><b>2) CVS Health(CVS)</b> – CVS earned an adjusted $2.42 per share for the second quarter, beating the $2.06 consensus estimate, with revenue beating forecasts as well. The drug store and pharmacy benefits company also saw same-store sales rise a better than expected 12.3%. Separately, CVS also announced it was raising its minimum wage for employees to $15 per hour.</p>\n<p><b>3) Kraft Heinz(KHC) </b>– Kraft Heinz beat estimates by 6 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 78 cents per share, while the food producer’s revenue also exceeded estimates. Demand continued to be strong during the quarter for the company’s snacks and packaged meals.</p>\n<p><b>4) Tupperware(TUP) </b>– Tupperware shares jumped 2.5% in the premarket, after beating on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter. The maker of household storage products earned an adjusted 95 cents per share, well above the 57 cent consensus estimate.</p>\n<p><b>5) Robinhood(HOOD)</b> – The trading platform’s stock soared 13.1% in premarket trading, on top of a 24.2% gain in Tuesday trading, when it rose above its $38 per share IPO price for the first time since going public last Thursday. It was also among yesterday’s most heavily traded stocks.</p>\n<p><b>6) Activision Blizzard(ATVI)</b> – Activision Blizzard beat estimates by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 91 cents per share and the videogame producer’s revenue was slightly above Wall Street forecasts. It also gave an upbeat forecast, anticipating continued strong demand for popular franchises like “Candy Crush” and “Call of Duty”. Shares rallied 5.6% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>7) Amgen(AMGN) </b>– Amgen earned an adjusted $4.38 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.09. The biotech giant’s revenue topped analyst estimates as well, although it said visits and procedures remain below pre-pandemic levels. Amgen also said it is in a dispute with the IRS, fighting a claim that it owes $3.6 billion in back taxes.</p>\n<p><b>8) Lyft(LYFT) </b>– Lyft reported an adjusted quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, smaller than the 24 cent loss predicted by analysts, with the ride-hailing service coming in with better-than-expected revenue. Lyft saw strong ride-hailing demand and did reach profitability as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).</p>\n<p><b>9) Match Group(MTCH)</b> – Match Group fell 6 cents shy of estimates with quarterly earnings of 46 cents per share, although the operator of Tinder and other dating services did see revenue exceed forecasts. Revenue growth for Tinder is accelerating as vaccination rates rise, but Match said recovery is lagging in some important overseas markets. Shares fell 4% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>10) Caesars Entertainment(CZR) </b>– Caesars earned 34 cents per share for its latest quarter, surprising analysts who had expected a loss of 18 cents per share. The casino operator’s revenue exceeded estimates as well, thanks to a strong rebound in the Las Vegas market. Caesars added 2% in premarket action.</p>\n<p><b>11) Affirm Holdings(AFRM)</b> – Affirm added another 2.4% in the premarket, after jumping 3% yesterday. The payment service’s shares are getting a boost from a Bloomberg report that it will partner withApple(AAPL) to offer “buy now, pay later” services for Canadian purchases of Apple devices.</p>\n<p><b>12) Avis Budget(CAR) </b>– Avis Budget rose 1.9% in premarket trading after reporting what it called the best quarter in its history, with surging demand and higher rental prices leading to a tripling in sales. Adjusted earnings per share came to $5.90, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.21.</p>\n<p><b>13) Live Nation(LYV) </b>– Live Nation said sales for its latest quarter surged nearly eight-fold, as live events returned amid an increase in vaccinations. The live event promoter said concerts and other events were selling out quickly, and at ticket prices that were 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Live Nation gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p>In FX, the euro dipped after a European Central Bank policy maker said the central bank won’t rush a decision on stimulus. The Bloomberg Dollar Index held little changed and most Group- of-10 currencies traded in narrow ranges. The pound rose for a second day, with some investors expecting the Bank of England to take a hawkish turn on Thursday; the euro slipped to a session low of 1.1842 before trimming losses. New Zealand’s dollar rose against all its G-10 peers as traders boosted bets for interest- rate hikes after the nation’s jobs data beat economists’ estimates. The kiwi was also bolstered by fund-related purchases against the Australian dollar, traders said. The Australian dollar bounced off a session low after a gauge of China’s services activity topped analysts’ estimates. The safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen led losses on concern the spread of the delta variant could derail global growth.</p>\n<p>In rates, treasury yields suddenly slumped to session lows of 1.1555% after trading steady for much of the overnight session as market awaits latest quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET. Price action calm over Asia, early European session has seen yields trade in a narrow range. ISM services and ADP employment data also due Wednesday, which may provide some insight ahead of Friday payrolls. No Treasury supply this week, although quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET will draw focus as officials may provide details about the timing of reducing auction sizes. Euro zone government bond yields hovered near recent lows, with the German 10-year yield at -0.489%, little moved by July euro zone purchasing managers index survey data that came in slightly worse than expected.</p>\n<p>In commodities, Brent futures gave up early gains to last trade 0.2% lower at $72.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude was down 0.4% at $70.26 a barrel. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,812.9 an ounce.</p>\n<p>Looking at the day ahead, expected data include ADP employment change for July as well as the ISM services index. Key U.S. jobs data this week could stoke market swings if they lead investors to adjust expectations over the Federal Reserve’s likely timeline for eventually tapering stimulus. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is due to speak about monetary policy Wednesday. “Today’s employment figures could rapidly change the market mood,” said Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. “A strong read should accelerate the thinking that the Fed will get to the tapering stage quicker than otherwise. That could apply a certain pressure on the U.S. stocks.” Separately the Central Bank of Brazil will release its latest monetary policy decision and then Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida speaks. Finally, earnings releases today include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, General Motors, Uber, and Toyota.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-04 19:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)</i></p>\n<p>(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its 42nd record close of the year, as investors weighstrong corporate earningsagainst the potentialthreat of the Delta variantof Covid-19.</p>\n<p>At 08:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 76 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis fell 7 points, or 0.16% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slid 9 points, or 0.06% .</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f1103ecd5b5a67bec56afafdc8276f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket：</b></p>\n<p><b>1) General Motors(GM)</b> – General Motors missed the consensus estimate of $2.23 per share with an adjusted second-quarter profit of $1.97 per share, though revenue did top Wall Street forecasts. GM did raise its forecast for the remainder of the year, based on strong demand and pricing. GM initially fell 3% in the premarket but then bounced back to recover most of that loss.</p>\n<p><b>2) CVS Health(CVS)</b> – CVS earned an adjusted $2.42 per share for the second quarter, beating the $2.06 consensus estimate, with revenue beating forecasts as well. The drug store and pharmacy benefits company also saw same-store sales rise a better than expected 12.3%. Separately, CVS also announced it was raising its minimum wage for employees to $15 per hour.</p>\n<p><b>3) Kraft Heinz(KHC) </b>– Kraft Heinz beat estimates by 6 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 78 cents per share, while the food producer’s revenue also exceeded estimates. Demand continued to be strong during the quarter for the company’s snacks and packaged meals.</p>\n<p><b>4) Tupperware(TUP) </b>– Tupperware shares jumped 2.5% in the premarket, after beating on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter. The maker of household storage products earned an adjusted 95 cents per share, well above the 57 cent consensus estimate.</p>\n<p><b>5) Robinhood(HOOD)</b> – The trading platform’s stock soared 13.1% in premarket trading, on top of a 24.2% gain in Tuesday trading, when it rose above its $38 per share IPO price for the first time since going public last Thursday. It was also among yesterday’s most heavily traded stocks.</p>\n<p><b>6) Activision Blizzard(ATVI)</b> – Activision Blizzard beat estimates by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 91 cents per share and the videogame producer’s revenue was slightly above Wall Street forecasts. It also gave an upbeat forecast, anticipating continued strong demand for popular franchises like “Candy Crush” and “Call of Duty”. Shares rallied 5.6% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>7) Amgen(AMGN) </b>– Amgen earned an adjusted $4.38 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.09. The biotech giant’s revenue topped analyst estimates as well, although it said visits and procedures remain below pre-pandemic levels. Amgen also said it is in a dispute with the IRS, fighting a claim that it owes $3.6 billion in back taxes.</p>\n<p><b>8) Lyft(LYFT) </b>– Lyft reported an adjusted quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, smaller than the 24 cent loss predicted by analysts, with the ride-hailing service coming in with better-than-expected revenue. Lyft saw strong ride-hailing demand and did reach profitability as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).</p>\n<p><b>9) Match Group(MTCH)</b> – Match Group fell 6 cents shy of estimates with quarterly earnings of 46 cents per share, although the operator of Tinder and other dating services did see revenue exceed forecasts. Revenue growth for Tinder is accelerating as vaccination rates rise, but Match said recovery is lagging in some important overseas markets. Shares fell 4% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>10) Caesars Entertainment(CZR) </b>– Caesars earned 34 cents per share for its latest quarter, surprising analysts who had expected a loss of 18 cents per share. The casino operator’s revenue exceeded estimates as well, thanks to a strong rebound in the Las Vegas market. Caesars added 2% in premarket action.</p>\n<p><b>11) Affirm Holdings(AFRM)</b> – Affirm added another 2.4% in the premarket, after jumping 3% yesterday. The payment service’s shares are getting a boost from a Bloomberg report that it will partner withApple(AAPL) to offer “buy now, pay later” services for Canadian purchases of Apple devices.</p>\n<p><b>12) Avis Budget(CAR) </b>– Avis Budget rose 1.9% in premarket trading after reporting what it called the best quarter in its history, with surging demand and higher rental prices leading to a tripling in sales. Adjusted earnings per share came to $5.90, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.21.</p>\n<p><b>13) Live Nation(LYV) </b>– Live Nation said sales for its latest quarter surged nearly eight-fold, as live events returned amid an increase in vaccinations. The live event promoter said concerts and other events were selling out quickly, and at ticket prices that were 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Live Nation gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p>In FX, the euro dipped after a European Central Bank policy maker said the central bank won’t rush a decision on stimulus. The Bloomberg Dollar Index held little changed and most Group- of-10 currencies traded in narrow ranges. The pound rose for a second day, with some investors expecting the Bank of England to take a hawkish turn on Thursday; the euro slipped to a session low of 1.1842 before trimming losses. New Zealand’s dollar rose against all its G-10 peers as traders boosted bets for interest- rate hikes after the nation’s jobs data beat economists’ estimates. The kiwi was also bolstered by fund-related purchases against the Australian dollar, traders said. The Australian dollar bounced off a session low after a gauge of China’s services activity topped analysts’ estimates. The safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen led losses on concern the spread of the delta variant could derail global growth.</p>\n<p>In rates, treasury yields suddenly slumped to session lows of 1.1555% after trading steady for much of the overnight session as market awaits latest quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET. Price action calm over Asia, early European session has seen yields trade in a narrow range. ISM services and ADP employment data also due Wednesday, which may provide some insight ahead of Friday payrolls. No Treasury supply this week, although quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET will draw focus as officials may provide details about the timing of reducing auction sizes. Euro zone government bond yields hovered near recent lows, with the German 10-year yield at -0.489%, little moved by July euro zone purchasing managers index survey data that came in slightly worse than expected.</p>\n<p>In commodities, Brent futures gave up early gains to last trade 0.2% lower at $72.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude was down 0.4% at $70.26 a barrel. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,812.9 an ounce.</p>\n<p>Looking at the day ahead, expected data include ADP employment change for July as well as the ISM services index. Key U.S. jobs data this week could stoke market swings if they lead investors to adjust expectations over the Federal Reserve’s likely timeline for eventually tapering stimulus. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is due to speak about monetary policy Wednesday. “Today’s employment figures could rapidly change the market mood,” said Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. “A strong read should accelerate the thinking that the Fed will get to the tapering stage quicker than otherwise. That could apply a certain pressure on the U.S. stocks.” Separately the Central Bank of Brazil will release its latest monetary policy decision and then Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida speaks. Finally, earnings releases today include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, General Motors, Uber, and Toyota.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163400390","content_text":"(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)\n(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its 42nd record close of the year, as investors weighstrong corporate earningsagainst the potentialthreat of the Delta variantof Covid-19.\nAt 08:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 76 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis fell 7 points, or 0.16% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slid 9 points, or 0.06% .\n\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket：\n1) General Motors(GM) – General Motors missed the consensus estimate of $2.23 per share with an adjusted second-quarter profit of $1.97 per share, though revenue did top Wall Street forecasts. GM did raise its forecast for the remainder of the year, based on strong demand and pricing. GM initially fell 3% in the premarket but then bounced back to recover most of that loss.\n2) CVS Health(CVS) – CVS earned an adjusted $2.42 per share for the second quarter, beating the $2.06 consensus estimate, with revenue beating forecasts as well. The drug store and pharmacy benefits company also saw same-store sales rise a better than expected 12.3%. Separately, CVS also announced it was raising its minimum wage for employees to $15 per hour.\n3) Kraft Heinz(KHC) – Kraft Heinz beat estimates by 6 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 78 cents per share, while the food producer’s revenue also exceeded estimates. Demand continued to be strong during the quarter for the company’s snacks and packaged meals.\n4) Tupperware(TUP) – Tupperware shares jumped 2.5% in the premarket, after beating on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter. The maker of household storage products earned an adjusted 95 cents per share, well above the 57 cent consensus estimate.\n5) Robinhood(HOOD) – The trading platform’s stock soared 13.1% in premarket trading, on top of a 24.2% gain in Tuesday trading, when it rose above its $38 per share IPO price for the first time since going public last Thursday. It was also among yesterday’s most heavily traded stocks.\n6) Activision Blizzard(ATVI) – Activision Blizzard beat estimates by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 91 cents per share and the videogame producer’s revenue was slightly above Wall Street forecasts. It also gave an upbeat forecast, anticipating continued strong demand for popular franchises like “Candy Crush” and “Call of Duty”. Shares rallied 5.6% in premarket trading.\n7) Amgen(AMGN) – Amgen earned an adjusted $4.38 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.09. The biotech giant’s revenue topped analyst estimates as well, although it said visits and procedures remain below pre-pandemic levels. Amgen also said it is in a dispute with the IRS, fighting a claim that it owes $3.6 billion in back taxes.\n8) Lyft(LYFT) – Lyft reported an adjusted quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, smaller than the 24 cent loss predicted by analysts, with the ride-hailing service coming in with better-than-expected revenue. Lyft saw strong ride-hailing demand and did reach profitability as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).\n9) Match Group(MTCH) – Match Group fell 6 cents shy of estimates with quarterly earnings of 46 cents per share, although the operator of Tinder and other dating services did see revenue exceed forecasts. Revenue growth for Tinder is accelerating as vaccination rates rise, but Match said recovery is lagging in some important overseas markets. Shares fell 4% in premarket trading.\n10) Caesars Entertainment(CZR) – Caesars earned 34 cents per share for its latest quarter, surprising analysts who had expected a loss of 18 cents per share. The casino operator’s revenue exceeded estimates as well, thanks to a strong rebound in the Las Vegas market. Caesars added 2% in premarket action.\n11) Affirm Holdings(AFRM) – Affirm added another 2.4% in the premarket, after jumping 3% yesterday. The payment service’s shares are getting a boost from a Bloomberg report that it will partner withApple(AAPL) to offer “buy now, pay later” services for Canadian purchases of Apple devices.\n12) Avis Budget(CAR) – Avis Budget rose 1.9% in premarket trading after reporting what it called the best quarter in its history, with surging demand and higher rental prices leading to a tripling in sales. Adjusted earnings per share came to $5.90, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.21.\n13) Live Nation(LYV) – Live Nation said sales for its latest quarter surged nearly eight-fold, as live events returned amid an increase in vaccinations. The live event promoter said concerts and other events were selling out quickly, and at ticket prices that were 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Live Nation gained 2.3% in the premarket.\nIn FX, the euro dipped after a European Central Bank policy maker said the central bank won’t rush a decision on stimulus. The Bloomberg Dollar Index held little changed and most Group- of-10 currencies traded in narrow ranges. The pound rose for a second day, with some investors expecting the Bank of England to take a hawkish turn on Thursday; the euro slipped to a session low of 1.1842 before trimming losses. New Zealand’s dollar rose against all its G-10 peers as traders boosted bets for interest- rate hikes after the nation’s jobs data beat economists’ estimates. The kiwi was also bolstered by fund-related purchases against the Australian dollar, traders said. The Australian dollar bounced off a session low after a gauge of China’s services activity topped analysts’ estimates. The safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen led losses on concern the spread of the delta variant could derail global growth.\nIn rates, treasury yields suddenly slumped to session lows of 1.1555% after trading steady for much of the overnight session as market awaits latest quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET. Price action calm over Asia, early European session has seen yields trade in a narrow range. ISM services and ADP employment data also due Wednesday, which may provide some insight ahead of Friday payrolls. No Treasury supply this week, although quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET will draw focus as officials may provide details about the timing of reducing auction sizes. Euro zone government bond yields hovered near recent lows, with the German 10-year yield at -0.489%, little moved by July euro zone purchasing managers index survey data that came in slightly worse than expected.\nIn commodities, Brent futures gave up early gains to last trade 0.2% lower at $72.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude was down 0.4% at $70.26 a barrel. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,812.9 an ounce.\nLooking at the day ahead, expected data include ADP employment change for July as well as the ISM services index. Key U.S. jobs data this week could stoke market swings if they lead investors to adjust expectations over the Federal Reserve’s likely timeline for eventually tapering stimulus. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is due to speak about monetary policy Wednesday. “Today’s employment figures could rapidly change the market mood,” said Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. “A strong read should accelerate the thinking that the Fed will get to the tapering stage quicker than otherwise. That could apply a certain pressure on the U.S. stocks.” Separately the Central Bank of Brazil will release its latest monetary policy decision and then Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida speaks. Finally, earnings releases today include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, General Motors, Uber, and Toyota.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179142565,"gmtCreate":1626497057457,"gmtModify":1703761164426,"author":{"id":"3576763132816745","authorId":"3576763132816745","name":"Salmon555","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac69c0e083b447608761d386bc87ae67","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576763132816745","authorIdStr":"3576763132816745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gzzgdtggf","listText":"Gzzgdtggf","text":"Gzzgdtggf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179142565","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":890321589,"gmtCreate":1628084417341,"gmtModify":1703500901454,"author":{"id":"3576763132816745","authorId":"3576763132816745","name":"Salmon555","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac69c0e083b447608761d386bc87ae67","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576763132816745","idStr":"3576763132816745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890321589","repostId":"1163400390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163400390","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628077338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163400390?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163400390","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)\n(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its ","content":"<p><i>(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)</i></p>\n<p>(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its 42nd record close of the year, as investors weighstrong corporate earningsagainst the potentialthreat of the Delta variantof Covid-19.</p>\n<p>At 08:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 76 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis fell 7 points, or 0.16% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slid 9 points, or 0.06% .</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f1103ecd5b5a67bec56afafdc8276f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket：</b></p>\n<p><b>1) General Motors(GM)</b> – General Motors missed the consensus estimate of $2.23 per share with an adjusted second-quarter profit of $1.97 per share, though revenue did top Wall Street forecasts. GM did raise its forecast for the remainder of the year, based on strong demand and pricing. GM initially fell 3% in the premarket but then bounced back to recover most of that loss.</p>\n<p><b>2) CVS Health(CVS)</b> – CVS earned an adjusted $2.42 per share for the second quarter, beating the $2.06 consensus estimate, with revenue beating forecasts as well. The drug store and pharmacy benefits company also saw same-store sales rise a better than expected 12.3%. Separately, CVS also announced it was raising its minimum wage for employees to $15 per hour.</p>\n<p><b>3) Kraft Heinz(KHC) </b>– Kraft Heinz beat estimates by 6 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 78 cents per share, while the food producer’s revenue also exceeded estimates. Demand continued to be strong during the quarter for the company’s snacks and packaged meals.</p>\n<p><b>4) Tupperware(TUP) </b>– Tupperware shares jumped 2.5% in the premarket, after beating on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter. The maker of household storage products earned an adjusted 95 cents per share, well above the 57 cent consensus estimate.</p>\n<p><b>5) Robinhood(HOOD)</b> – The trading platform’s stock soared 13.1% in premarket trading, on top of a 24.2% gain in Tuesday trading, when it rose above its $38 per share IPO price for the first time since going public last Thursday. It was also among yesterday’s most heavily traded stocks.</p>\n<p><b>6) Activision Blizzard(ATVI)</b> – Activision Blizzard beat estimates by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 91 cents per share and the videogame producer’s revenue was slightly above Wall Street forecasts. It also gave an upbeat forecast, anticipating continued strong demand for popular franchises like “Candy Crush” and “Call of Duty”. Shares rallied 5.6% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>7) Amgen(AMGN) </b>– Amgen earned an adjusted $4.38 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.09. The biotech giant’s revenue topped analyst estimates as well, although it said visits and procedures remain below pre-pandemic levels. Amgen also said it is in a dispute with the IRS, fighting a claim that it owes $3.6 billion in back taxes.</p>\n<p><b>8) Lyft(LYFT) </b>– Lyft reported an adjusted quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, smaller than the 24 cent loss predicted by analysts, with the ride-hailing service coming in with better-than-expected revenue. Lyft saw strong ride-hailing demand and did reach profitability as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).</p>\n<p><b>9) Match Group(MTCH)</b> – Match Group fell 6 cents shy of estimates with quarterly earnings of 46 cents per share, although the operator of Tinder and other dating services did see revenue exceed forecasts. Revenue growth for Tinder is accelerating as vaccination rates rise, but Match said recovery is lagging in some important overseas markets. Shares fell 4% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>10) Caesars Entertainment(CZR) </b>– Caesars earned 34 cents per share for its latest quarter, surprising analysts who had expected a loss of 18 cents per share. The casino operator’s revenue exceeded estimates as well, thanks to a strong rebound in the Las Vegas market. Caesars added 2% in premarket action.</p>\n<p><b>11) Affirm Holdings(AFRM)</b> – Affirm added another 2.4% in the premarket, after jumping 3% yesterday. The payment service’s shares are getting a boost from a Bloomberg report that it will partner withApple(AAPL) to offer “buy now, pay later” services for Canadian purchases of Apple devices.</p>\n<p><b>12) Avis Budget(CAR) </b>– Avis Budget rose 1.9% in premarket trading after reporting what it called the best quarter in its history, with surging demand and higher rental prices leading to a tripling in sales. Adjusted earnings per share came to $5.90, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.21.</p>\n<p><b>13) Live Nation(LYV) </b>– Live Nation said sales for its latest quarter surged nearly eight-fold, as live events returned amid an increase in vaccinations. The live event promoter said concerts and other events were selling out quickly, and at ticket prices that were 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Live Nation gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p>In FX, the euro dipped after a European Central Bank policy maker said the central bank won’t rush a decision on stimulus. The Bloomberg Dollar Index held little changed and most Group- of-10 currencies traded in narrow ranges. The pound rose for a second day, with some investors expecting the Bank of England to take a hawkish turn on Thursday; the euro slipped to a session low of 1.1842 before trimming losses. New Zealand’s dollar rose against all its G-10 peers as traders boosted bets for interest- rate hikes after the nation’s jobs data beat economists’ estimates. The kiwi was also bolstered by fund-related purchases against the Australian dollar, traders said. The Australian dollar bounced off a session low after a gauge of China’s services activity topped analysts’ estimates. The safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen led losses on concern the spread of the delta variant could derail global growth.</p>\n<p>In rates, treasury yields suddenly slumped to session lows of 1.1555% after trading steady for much of the overnight session as market awaits latest quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET. Price action calm over Asia, early European session has seen yields trade in a narrow range. ISM services and ADP employment data also due Wednesday, which may provide some insight ahead of Friday payrolls. No Treasury supply this week, although quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET will draw focus as officials may provide details about the timing of reducing auction sizes. Euro zone government bond yields hovered near recent lows, with the German 10-year yield at -0.489%, little moved by July euro zone purchasing managers index survey data that came in slightly worse than expected.</p>\n<p>In commodities, Brent futures gave up early gains to last trade 0.2% lower at $72.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude was down 0.4% at $70.26 a barrel. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,812.9 an ounce.</p>\n<p>Looking at the day ahead, expected data include ADP employment change for July as well as the ISM services index. Key U.S. jobs data this week could stoke market swings if they lead investors to adjust expectations over the Federal Reserve’s likely timeline for eventually tapering stimulus. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is due to speak about monetary policy Wednesday. “Today’s employment figures could rapidly change the market mood,” said Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. “A strong read should accelerate the thinking that the Fed will get to the tapering stage quicker than otherwise. That could apply a certain pressure on the U.S. stocks.” Separately the Central Bank of Brazil will release its latest monetary policy decision and then Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida speaks. Finally, earnings releases today include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, General Motors, Uber, and Toyota.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-04 19:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)</i></p>\n<p>(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its 42nd record close of the year, as investors weighstrong corporate earningsagainst the potentialthreat of the Delta variantof Covid-19.</p>\n<p>At 08:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 76 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis fell 7 points, or 0.16% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slid 9 points, or 0.06% .</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f1103ecd5b5a67bec56afafdc8276f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket：</b></p>\n<p><b>1) General Motors(GM)</b> – General Motors missed the consensus estimate of $2.23 per share with an adjusted second-quarter profit of $1.97 per share, though revenue did top Wall Street forecasts. GM did raise its forecast for the remainder of the year, based on strong demand and pricing. GM initially fell 3% in the premarket but then bounced back to recover most of that loss.</p>\n<p><b>2) CVS Health(CVS)</b> – CVS earned an adjusted $2.42 per share for the second quarter, beating the $2.06 consensus estimate, with revenue beating forecasts as well. The drug store and pharmacy benefits company also saw same-store sales rise a better than expected 12.3%. Separately, CVS also announced it was raising its minimum wage for employees to $15 per hour.</p>\n<p><b>3) Kraft Heinz(KHC) </b>– Kraft Heinz beat estimates by 6 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 78 cents per share, while the food producer’s revenue also exceeded estimates. Demand continued to be strong during the quarter for the company’s snacks and packaged meals.</p>\n<p><b>4) Tupperware(TUP) </b>– Tupperware shares jumped 2.5% in the premarket, after beating on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter. The maker of household storage products earned an adjusted 95 cents per share, well above the 57 cent consensus estimate.</p>\n<p><b>5) Robinhood(HOOD)</b> – The trading platform’s stock soared 13.1% in premarket trading, on top of a 24.2% gain in Tuesday trading, when it rose above its $38 per share IPO price for the first time since going public last Thursday. It was also among yesterday’s most heavily traded stocks.</p>\n<p><b>6) Activision Blizzard(ATVI)</b> – Activision Blizzard beat estimates by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 91 cents per share and the videogame producer’s revenue was slightly above Wall Street forecasts. It also gave an upbeat forecast, anticipating continued strong demand for popular franchises like “Candy Crush” and “Call of Duty”. Shares rallied 5.6% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>7) Amgen(AMGN) </b>– Amgen earned an adjusted $4.38 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.09. The biotech giant’s revenue topped analyst estimates as well, although it said visits and procedures remain below pre-pandemic levels. Amgen also said it is in a dispute with the IRS, fighting a claim that it owes $3.6 billion in back taxes.</p>\n<p><b>8) Lyft(LYFT) </b>– Lyft reported an adjusted quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, smaller than the 24 cent loss predicted by analysts, with the ride-hailing service coming in with better-than-expected revenue. Lyft saw strong ride-hailing demand and did reach profitability as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).</p>\n<p><b>9) Match Group(MTCH)</b> – Match Group fell 6 cents shy of estimates with quarterly earnings of 46 cents per share, although the operator of Tinder and other dating services did see revenue exceed forecasts. Revenue growth for Tinder is accelerating as vaccination rates rise, but Match said recovery is lagging in some important overseas markets. Shares fell 4% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>10) Caesars Entertainment(CZR) </b>– Caesars earned 34 cents per share for its latest quarter, surprising analysts who had expected a loss of 18 cents per share. The casino operator’s revenue exceeded estimates as well, thanks to a strong rebound in the Las Vegas market. Caesars added 2% in premarket action.</p>\n<p><b>11) Affirm Holdings(AFRM)</b> – Affirm added another 2.4% in the premarket, after jumping 3% yesterday. The payment service’s shares are getting a boost from a Bloomberg report that it will partner withApple(AAPL) to offer “buy now, pay later” services for Canadian purchases of Apple devices.</p>\n<p><b>12) Avis Budget(CAR) </b>– Avis Budget rose 1.9% in premarket trading after reporting what it called the best quarter in its history, with surging demand and higher rental prices leading to a tripling in sales. Adjusted earnings per share came to $5.90, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.21.</p>\n<p><b>13) Live Nation(LYV) </b>– Live Nation said sales for its latest quarter surged nearly eight-fold, as live events returned amid an increase in vaccinations. The live event promoter said concerts and other events were selling out quickly, and at ticket prices that were 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Live Nation gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p>In FX, the euro dipped after a European Central Bank policy maker said the central bank won’t rush a decision on stimulus. The Bloomberg Dollar Index held little changed and most Group- of-10 currencies traded in narrow ranges. The pound rose for a second day, with some investors expecting the Bank of England to take a hawkish turn on Thursday; the euro slipped to a session low of 1.1842 before trimming losses. New Zealand’s dollar rose against all its G-10 peers as traders boosted bets for interest- rate hikes after the nation’s jobs data beat economists’ estimates. The kiwi was also bolstered by fund-related purchases against the Australian dollar, traders said. The Australian dollar bounced off a session low after a gauge of China’s services activity topped analysts’ estimates. The safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen led losses on concern the spread of the delta variant could derail global growth.</p>\n<p>In rates, treasury yields suddenly slumped to session lows of 1.1555% after trading steady for much of the overnight session as market awaits latest quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET. Price action calm over Asia, early European session has seen yields trade in a narrow range. ISM services and ADP employment data also due Wednesday, which may provide some insight ahead of Friday payrolls. No Treasury supply this week, although quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET will draw focus as officials may provide details about the timing of reducing auction sizes. Euro zone government bond yields hovered near recent lows, with the German 10-year yield at -0.489%, little moved by July euro zone purchasing managers index survey data that came in slightly worse than expected.</p>\n<p>In commodities, Brent futures gave up early gains to last trade 0.2% lower at $72.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude was down 0.4% at $70.26 a barrel. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,812.9 an ounce.</p>\n<p>Looking at the day ahead, expected data include ADP employment change for July as well as the ISM services index. Key U.S. jobs data this week could stoke market swings if they lead investors to adjust expectations over the Federal Reserve’s likely timeline for eventually tapering stimulus. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is due to speak about monetary policy Wednesday. “Today’s employment figures could rapidly change the market mood,” said Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. “A strong read should accelerate the thinking that the Fed will get to the tapering stage quicker than otherwise. That could apply a certain pressure on the U.S. stocks.” Separately the Central Bank of Brazil will release its latest monetary policy decision and then Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida speaks. Finally, earnings releases today include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, General Motors, Uber, and Toyota.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163400390","content_text":"(Update: August 4, 2021 at 8:28 a.m. ET)\n(Aug 4) Stock futures arewobblingafter the S&P 500 hit its 42nd record close of the year, as investors weighstrong corporate earningsagainst the potentialthreat of the Delta variantof Covid-19.\nAt 08:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 76 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis fell 7 points, or 0.16% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slid 9 points, or 0.06% .\n\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket：\n1) General Motors(GM) – General Motors missed the consensus estimate of $2.23 per share with an adjusted second-quarter profit of $1.97 per share, though revenue did top Wall Street forecasts. GM did raise its forecast for the remainder of the year, based on strong demand and pricing. GM initially fell 3% in the premarket but then bounced back to recover most of that loss.\n2) CVS Health(CVS) – CVS earned an adjusted $2.42 per share for the second quarter, beating the $2.06 consensus estimate, with revenue beating forecasts as well. The drug store and pharmacy benefits company also saw same-store sales rise a better than expected 12.3%. Separately, CVS also announced it was raising its minimum wage for employees to $15 per hour.\n3) Kraft Heinz(KHC) – Kraft Heinz beat estimates by 6 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 78 cents per share, while the food producer’s revenue also exceeded estimates. Demand continued to be strong during the quarter for the company’s snacks and packaged meals.\n4) Tupperware(TUP) – Tupperware shares jumped 2.5% in the premarket, after beating on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter. The maker of household storage products earned an adjusted 95 cents per share, well above the 57 cent consensus estimate.\n5) Robinhood(HOOD) – The trading platform’s stock soared 13.1% in premarket trading, on top of a 24.2% gain in Tuesday trading, when it rose above its $38 per share IPO price for the first time since going public last Thursday. It was also among yesterday’s most heavily traded stocks.\n6) Activision Blizzard(ATVI) – Activision Blizzard beat estimates by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 91 cents per share and the videogame producer’s revenue was slightly above Wall Street forecasts. It also gave an upbeat forecast, anticipating continued strong demand for popular franchises like “Candy Crush” and “Call of Duty”. Shares rallied 5.6% in premarket trading.\n7) Amgen(AMGN) – Amgen earned an adjusted $4.38 per share for its latest quarter, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.09. The biotech giant’s revenue topped analyst estimates as well, although it said visits and procedures remain below pre-pandemic levels. Amgen also said it is in a dispute with the IRS, fighting a claim that it owes $3.6 billion in back taxes.\n8) Lyft(LYFT) – Lyft reported an adjusted quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, smaller than the 24 cent loss predicted by analysts, with the ride-hailing service coming in with better-than-expected revenue. Lyft saw strong ride-hailing demand and did reach profitability as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).\n9) Match Group(MTCH) – Match Group fell 6 cents shy of estimates with quarterly earnings of 46 cents per share, although the operator of Tinder and other dating services did see revenue exceed forecasts. Revenue growth for Tinder is accelerating as vaccination rates rise, but Match said recovery is lagging in some important overseas markets. Shares fell 4% in premarket trading.\n10) Caesars Entertainment(CZR) – Caesars earned 34 cents per share for its latest quarter, surprising analysts who had expected a loss of 18 cents per share. The casino operator’s revenue exceeded estimates as well, thanks to a strong rebound in the Las Vegas market. Caesars added 2% in premarket action.\n11) Affirm Holdings(AFRM) – Affirm added another 2.4% in the premarket, after jumping 3% yesterday. The payment service’s shares are getting a boost from a Bloomberg report that it will partner withApple(AAPL) to offer “buy now, pay later” services for Canadian purchases of Apple devices.\n12) Avis Budget(CAR) – Avis Budget rose 1.9% in premarket trading after reporting what it called the best quarter in its history, with surging demand and higher rental prices leading to a tripling in sales. Adjusted earnings per share came to $5.90, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.21.\n13) Live Nation(LYV) – Live Nation said sales for its latest quarter surged nearly eight-fold, as live events returned amid an increase in vaccinations. The live event promoter said concerts and other events were selling out quickly, and at ticket prices that were 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Live Nation gained 2.3% in the premarket.\nIn FX, the euro dipped after a European Central Bank policy maker said the central bank won’t rush a decision on stimulus. The Bloomberg Dollar Index held little changed and most Group- of-10 currencies traded in narrow ranges. The pound rose for a second day, with some investors expecting the Bank of England to take a hawkish turn on Thursday; the euro slipped to a session low of 1.1842 before trimming losses. New Zealand’s dollar rose against all its G-10 peers as traders boosted bets for interest- rate hikes after the nation’s jobs data beat economists’ estimates. The kiwi was also bolstered by fund-related purchases against the Australian dollar, traders said. The Australian dollar bounced off a session low after a gauge of China’s services activity topped analysts’ estimates. The safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen led losses on concern the spread of the delta variant could derail global growth.\nIn rates, treasury yields suddenly slumped to session lows of 1.1555% after trading steady for much of the overnight session as market awaits latest quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET. Price action calm over Asia, early European session has seen yields trade in a narrow range. ISM services and ADP employment data also due Wednesday, which may provide some insight ahead of Friday payrolls. No Treasury supply this week, although quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET will draw focus as officials may provide details about the timing of reducing auction sizes. Euro zone government bond yields hovered near recent lows, with the German 10-year yield at -0.489%, little moved by July euro zone purchasing managers index survey data that came in slightly worse than expected.\nIn commodities, Brent futures gave up early gains to last trade 0.2% lower at $72.30 a barrel, while U.S. crude was down 0.4% at $70.26 a barrel. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,812.9 an ounce.\nLooking at the day ahead, expected data include ADP employment change for July as well as the ISM services index. Key U.S. jobs data this week could stoke market swings if they lead investors to adjust expectations over the Federal Reserve’s likely timeline for eventually tapering stimulus. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is due to speak about monetary policy Wednesday. “Today’s employment figures could rapidly change the market mood,” said Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. “A strong read should accelerate the thinking that the Fed will get to the tapering stage quicker than otherwise. That could apply a certain pressure on the U.S. stocks.” Separately the Central Bank of Brazil will release its latest monetary policy decision and then Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida speaks. Finally, earnings releases today include CVS Health, Booking Holdings, General Motors, Uber, and Toyota.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179142565,"gmtCreate":1626497057457,"gmtModify":1703761164426,"author":{"id":"3576763132816745","authorId":"3576763132816745","name":"Salmon555","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac69c0e083b447608761d386bc87ae67","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576763132816745","idStr":"3576763132816745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gzzgdtggf","listText":"Gzzgdtggf","text":"Gzzgdtggf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179142565","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149577900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626483617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149577900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149577900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.</li>\n <li>There are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.</li>\n <li>Those factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.</li>\n <li>Preparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.</li>\n <li>A crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Warnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.</p>\n<p>An Abundance of 'Warnings'</p>\n<p>Simply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Harry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.</li>\n <li>Jeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.</li>\n <li>John Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.</p>\n<p>Four Factors</p>\n<p>While there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.</p>\n<p>Excessive Speculation</p>\n<p>Speculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.</p>\n<p>While single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dccc290398aed22a11cf41ae63a85bce\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Margin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.</p>\n<p>Back in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.</p>\n<p>Speculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.</p>\n<p>Growth Slowdown</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034a916ba93dac9b099409c5906bee37\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromWeForumvia Statista</span></p>\n<p>The economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.</p>\n<p>Unemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.</p>\n<p>The market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.</p>\n<p>Peak Valuations</p>\n<p>Arguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388dd5417e610209de84d8a86ca86f91\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBloomberg</span></p>\n<p>February and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.</p>\n<p>SPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5ace269e2c48c6ad6bb5180ce32e48\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.</p>\n<p>But these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136219a2e6ea016fd91597c989fa1a9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromCurrent Market Valuation</span></p>\n<p>And as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ab71b923769effdde5d09e1d3cd3fd\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromBusiness Insider</span></p>\n<p>Low Interest Rates</p>\n<p>The fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.</p>\n<p>When interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8cb16f3b4b962cfa8adbffa4127b92\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic fromJP Morgan</span></p>\n<p>Although rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.</p>\n<p>Is It Time To Prepare?</p>\n<p>Signs and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims of<i>x%</i>drops in<i>x</i>month are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>When facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.<i>Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.</i></p>\n<p>Again, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Fear A Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Fear A Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439512-dont-fear-a-stock-market-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149577900","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records.\nThere are four main factors that this market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash.\nThose factors include excessive speculation, a growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising.\nPreparedness for the possible outcomes stemming from these factors and securing a portfolio against those outcomes could be necessary.\nA crash isn't something to fear, but rather something to take advantage of and capitalize from the bargains being offered.\n\nWarnings and claims of a stock market crash keep surfacing as the markets continue to push themselves to new records. First it was March, then May, then June, then September, for when experts would say the crash would come. Has it? No. Will it? Possibly. Is it easy to predict? Hardly. The more you hear people talk about it, the more you see it, the more convincing a possible crash gets - yet it's still nothing to fear. There are unfavorable and unsightly factors in the markets - again, it's still nothing to fear; rather, it's something to keep in mind, prepare for, and ultimately, take advantage of and capitalize. Just like in sports such as basketball and soccer, a great player plays both offense and defense very well, and likewise a great investor can play both the bull and bear runs in the market, and capitalize off of either. A crash should be nothing to fear, when the cards are stacked right and the hedges are placed, as it can offer chances to buy high-quality companies often at large discounts.\nAn Abundance of 'Warnings'\nSimply doing a quick search on Google (GOOG) for \"stock market crash\" or \"stock market crash expert\" returns dozens upon dozens of results of arguments laying out the pending doom of the markets, the arguments behind why the crash is bound to happen, why the crash didn't happen when it was supposed to,etc.; while there are many different 'expert warnings' for such a crash, let's take a look at three different perspectives, from Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman.\n\nHarry Denthas warned of an 80% crash coming this fall (a bit on the extreme side it seems, compared to others), saying that \"stocks have no place in investors' portfolios.\" His track record includes calling Japan's 1989 bubble and the dot-com bubble, and Dent is seeing that while investors remain bullish in the longer-term, the economy's recovery isn't the same and \"not as good as it used to be.\" Back in March, he had said that the biggest crash would happen in June, but as we all can see, it did not.\nJeremy Granthamsees that the 2020 Covid-induced crash was a mere blip in the run to the market peak, with the past year shoring up to be the \"classic finale to an 11-year bull market.\" Overvaluation across each market decile, farther than in 2000, while margin and debt peak, and high speculative trading support his warning. He also sees deflating asset prices, such as housing, causing pain as well, as bonds, stocks and real estate have all inflated together.\nJohn Hussmanhas warned that valuations are extreme, and called for the S&P 500 to see 12 years of negative returns ahead and a >60% decline; Hussman's track record includes calling out the dot-com bubble burst and 80% decline, the 2008 crash, and the decade of negative returns following the dot-com bubble. He also warns about speculation on securities that have already seen large appreciation for future growth. One of the key factors that he points out for a likely snapping of this bull run is that \"the mental image in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery may be more pleasant than the actual recovery itself,\" such that the \"glowing optimism currently built into record valuation extremes could be followed by quite a bit of disappointment.\"\n\nYet they aren't alone, and while track records do show some big crashes, often times they can be wrong far more than they are right, banks are also seeing minimal returns over the decade - Bank of America (BAC) is predicting that the S&P 500 would return an average of just 2% through the decade given the valuation landscape. That, plus other factors, do bring up the possibility of a crash, but with the signs and signals flashing, it shouldn't catch anyone off guard.\nFour Factors\nWhile there are many factors that have caused prior crashes and could cause future ones, four main factors that this current market exhibits that have the potential to cause a crash include: high amounts of speculative trading, slowdown in growth (economic recovery), peak valuations, and low interest rates that rise.\nExcessive Speculation\nSpeculation comes in many forms, but the most recognizable instances of over-exuberant trading and excessive speculation include GameStop's (GME) January short-squeeze frenzy, Archegos' implosion and the crash of Viacom (VIAC), Discovery (DISCA), a basket of Chinese tech stocks including Baidu (BIDU), iQIYI (IQ) and Vipshop(NYSE:VIPS), and others, and the more recent AMC Entertainment (AMC) short squeeze. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) also erupted in a speculative half social-media, half Elon Musk-fueled run.\nWhile single asset speculation through heavy volume trading not just in shares but in call options has been visible, less visible aspects of excessive speculative have persisted for months, with some surfacing in February or earlier.\n\nMargin debt (above) has risen significantly since 2020's bottoming out, up over 70% to over $850 billion from just $500 billion in early 2020. Robinhood (HOOD), a facilitator of first-time investors entering the market, of which they did in herds during 2020, provided relatively easy access to margin trading, and a flood of new investors and a surge in 'FOMO' helped push both margin debt and the market higher through 2020. While spikes in margin debt have historically preceded both the dot-com and housing bubble bursts (a pre-recessionary indicator), margin debt has spiked during the recent recession, which could signal that more pain is yet to come.\nBack in early February, signs of excess speculation and a push in the ten-year past 1.25%, to me, signaled pain ahead for growth stocks - thatthesisplayed out starting that day, with the NASDAQ falling over 10% through early March. Now, yields are stumbling, with the ten-year dropping below 1.30%, as expectations for a growth slowdown amid a slew of factors including new lockdowns in Australia, rising cases from the Delta variant and higher-than-expected inflation.\nSpeculation combines with other factors, like a growth slowdown and peak valuations, to create frothiness in trading, stretched multiples, and asymmetric risk-reward profiles, creating more risk than reward often.\nGrowth Slowdown\nGraphic fromWeForumvia Statista\nThe economic recovery as the globe worked through and emerged from lockdowns last year is visible, with a nearV-recoveryin GDP through the back half of 2020. China has seen aslowdownin its recovery, with more policy support expected; U.S. job numbers have missed expectations multiple times so far this year. There are still pockets of the economy that have failed to recovery as fast as expected, such as family-owned businesses/restaurants.\nUnemployment, GDP, and inflation all factor into forecasts for economic growth, and inflation is posing a larger risk than the other two currently. High inflation, high[er] unemployment, and an economic growth slowdown can create stagflation, such as what was witnessed in the 1970s.Fears of stagflationhave risen through June; while wage stagnation has been fought off by companies raising wages to meet downfalls caused by labor shortages, inflation is driving prices higher - theCPIrose quicker than expectations, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while thePPImirrored that move, helped by supply chain issues across nearly all industries. Companies like PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra (CAG) are raising prices to combat adverse effects to their operating performances stemming from inflation.\nThe market hasn't necessarily reacted to the possibilities of an economic slowdown, and inflation isn't the only factor - Covid-19 is not close to being gone, with the Delta variant surging in non-vaccinated communities and countries.Lockdownshave been re-implemented in parts of Australia, and there's no telling if lockdowns will be needed in other regions if cases continue to spike, and that alone can revert economic growth.\nPeak Valuations\nArguably one of the most noticeable and most mentioned factor in this list is peak valuations - that is, stocks are in a bubble, or certain groups of stocks are substantially overvalued.\nGraphic fromBloomberg\nFebruary and March marked a time where the markets 'reset' valuations for growth stocks - in particular, SPACs and unprofitable high-growth stocks who soared during 2020 (Goldman Sachs'Non-Profitable Tech Indexreached 393.1 in January 2021, up from 81.7 in March 2020). The SPAC cohort is a mix of heavy speculation and peak valuations, with SPACs rising >100% on rumors of mergers, only to fall >50% following those mergers - Churchill Capital IV (CCIV) and Lucid Motors is the prime example of this. This was a trend of the EV sector in general from January through March, with leaders Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) shedding over one-third of their value.\nSPACs also mirror some of the exuberance in 2000 - stocks that had that dot-com in the name were able to raise substantial cash via IPOs without much of a proven operating record, and many failed. Many of the SPACs that have come public in the past year exhibit those same features - a high investor appetite, ability to raise necessary cash from such appetite, multi-billion dollar valuations, and minimal revenues. General IPOs are also red-hot, with hundreds of companies already joining the markets this year, as investor snap them up quickly.\nData byYCharts\nTech stocks that have performed poorly since that 'peak' from January through March include some of those recent IPOs like C3.ai (AI), Lemonade (LMND), Snowflake (SNOW), and others including Appian (APPN) and Fastly (FSLY); aside from Snowflake, which is down 20%, the rest have fallen over 40% from those highs as high P/S multiples reset. On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) have managed to maintain such a high multiple with growing cybersecurity tailwinds, and have performed about flat over the same period. While the former six do still have strong, positive growth prospects, sustaining a high multiple is never guaranteed, and a reset that shocks the market shocks these stocks significantly, as seen in their performance.\nBut these peak valuations also spread to the blue-chips, and to FAANGM - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). This basket's PE valuations, on a weighted-by-market-cap basis, sat at 45x earnings in February, pushed higher by Amazon and Apple; at the moment, it sits just above 41.5x. This plays a role in exaggerating the overall S&P PE due to the heavy weighting the group has in the index, which is over 2 standard deviations above its average.\nGraphic fromCurrent Market Valuation\nAnd as a whole, valuations across the market are becoming more stretched, with each decile seeing its most extreme valuations on a PS basis, topping that of 2000. While high-beta, high-multiple stocks (primarily tech) in decline 10 have exceeded their 2000s level in a steep climb, decile 8 and 9 (likely more stable stocks given historical PS of 2x-4x) have seen that ratio double since 2011, with a surge in 2020 taking the deciles far past averages. While the exact components that make up each decile are unknown, are the drivers in place to solidify such a rapid expansion since 2019? For some stocks, possibly, but for others, it's not as likely. It could be down to a combination of high levels of bullishness in the market, FOMO, stimulus and low rates allowing stocks to run higher even with less fundamental backing.\nGraphic fromBusiness Insider\nLow Interest Rates\nThe fourth factor here is low interest rates that begin to rise, which ultimately affect the flow/flood of money into the markets, of which the Fed has supported since 2020. Some experts are seeing that equities in general are exhibiting signs of peak valuations and irrational exuberance, but that can be sustained as long as 'stimulus' in the form of Fed support remains.\nWhen interest rates are kept lower for an extended period, it increases the chances of bubbles being formed in different asset classes. Thus, one of the biggest risks becomes inflation, the risk that the market is currently digesting.\nGraphic fromJP Morgan\nAlthough rates are still low as of right now, the Fed has been facing some different viewpoints as to when it will need to start raising rates to combat inflation. Some see rates as early asnext year,others see it remaining in 2023. A rise in interest rates can spark a crash by removing excess liquidity from the markets (removing the ease of access to liquidity). The Fed has reiterated its belief that inflation is stilltransitory, but a quarter-long spell of higher-than-expected inflation data (just like what has occurred this week with the CPI and PPI rising ahead of expectations), could definitely force a rethinking of rate hikes and shake the market.\nIs It Time To Prepare?\nSigns and signals of bubbly conditions are still here, and preparedness for the possible outcomes and securing a portfolio against those outcomes is a smart idea. All it takes is one catalyst to knock equities back from high valuations and back to lower levels; sings in bonds and the dollar are starting to show rising expectations of tapering and the eventual end of Fed asset-buying and support. While there are numerous experts warning of a crash, it can be nearly impossible to time, and while evidence many of them provide is sound, such claims ofx%drops inxmonth are speculative in nature, unless that individual knows something unknown to the rest of the market.\nWhen facing a potential bubble or crash situation, hedging portfolios is key in minimizing losses and mitigating downside risk. Derivatives on index ETFs like SPY and DIA could offset potential selloffs in the market, while theQQQcan protect against losses in high-flying tech. For example, a quick case study for an SPY put play for Sept. 17: you assume an expectation for a 10% decline in the SPY to ~$390, and hedging your portfolio could come through a long put for ~$300, a $410/$390/$370 long butterfly for ~$100, or a $410/$390 put debit spread for ~$200. While the first trade has the highest return potential, it brings the highest risk, as the latter two strategies can start to profit on moves closer to -7%. For a $50,000 portfolio, a ~1% hedge could allow the purchase of 3 debit spreads, providing a maximum return of ~$6,000, or 12% of the portfolio value, which could effectively mitigate losses should the SPY fall to or below $390.Note that options strategies are inherently risky, and each investor's risk appetite is different, and such a strategy may not be suitable for everyone. This is merely a case study and shows the potential that a small percentage hedge can have in mitigating downside risk. Be aware of risks to timing and theta decay, and options becoming worthless.\nAgain, it's difficult to identify and even more difficult to time a bubble, given that the market can remain 'wrong' much longer than you can wait to be right. There's still room to run further with Fed support, but such signs of a potential bubble - excessive speculation, growth slowdown, peak valuations, and low interest rates rising - require awareness and preparedness. Yet it's nothing to fear. Small hedges can minimize downside risk, especially through options if timed well. Understanding the risks to high-flying growth stocks and those trading at or near peak valuations, regardless of sector, is important - many of the IPOs and SPACs have seen high valuations and minimal revenues, leading to exorbitant PS multiples pricing in years of growth, much like 2000. At the end of the day, if or when a crash happens, the opportunities to buy the 'best-of-the-best' companies at very attractive levels, and can provide generous returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":276858517827808,"gmtCreate":1708618423418,"gmtModify":1708618879830,"author":{"id":"3576763132816745","authorId":"3576763132816745","name":"Salmon555","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac69c0e083b447608761d386bc87ae67","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576763132816745","idStr":"3576763132816745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STI.SI\">$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/STI.SI\">$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ </a> ","text":"$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/276858517827808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
