NimhyJ personal page - To The Moon

NimhyJ

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2021-03-17

keep it on

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2021-03-19

that's impressive

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2021-03-03

thanks for the sharing

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2021-03-07

future of surgical

What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?

2021-06-15

Thanks for the summary

Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections

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days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a 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days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":160304490,"gmtCreate":1623771280410,"gmtModify":1703818990396,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the summary","listText":"Thanks for the summary","text":"Thanks for the summary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160304490","repostId":"1133174841","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133174841","pubTimestamp":1623078982,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133174841?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133174841","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's price action this year.\nSecond, I examine PLTR's growth project","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>First, I look at Palantir's price action this year.</li>\n <li>Second, I examine PLTR's growth projections.</li>\n <li>Third, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group.</li>\n <li>Lastly, I give my thoughts on price projections out through 2025.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>First, I look at Palantir's(NYSE:PLTR)price action this year. I provide some quick thoughts on what I've seen. Second, I look into PLTR's growth projections. I believe the aggression is hidden and I reveal why I feel that way. Third, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group, and what that means going forward, especially in light of revenue growth into 2025. Lastly, I revisit the topic of price but also price projections for investors.</p>\n<p><b>Rollercoaster</b></p>\n<p>Here's what's happened thus far in 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db04b39e358c9cdec5bc2d02251bd13\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The summary is simple. We are back where we started in January. If you bought and then closed your eyes, you would have gone absolutely nowhere. And, if your eyes were wide open, you would have experienced rather significant volatility, bouncing up against $39 but also muddling through $18. It goes without saying that PLTR has moved 50% top to bottom. But, importantly, we are back where we started.</p>\n<p>Now, here's where it gets interesting, because just putting money into the NASDAQ (QQQ) would give you superior returns with far less stomach-churning volatility. I'm not concerned with owning QQQ. I'm more than happy to own PLTR because, as I'll show later, it's likely to 5x my investment from this point in time. In any case, take a look at the relative calm of QQQ.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5563cce1afd961f1fe70a3ad7af88891\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here I want to add another layer of paint. We started with PLTR itself, then added QQQ. What happens when we go back in time to PLTR's direct listing?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804f2c567c89bab14a62ee5b333631bb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is the picture that matters most to me. Here's what this means in simple terms, which is what works best in my mind. If you bought early, nothing really happened for a few weeks but then PLTR really took off. Therefore, early investors -<i>like me</i>- took the risk and have benefitted greatly despite all volatility after the directly public offering. With a long view, volatility is not a threat or a \"risk\", but instead, it's an opportunity to buy low.</p>\n<p>In any case, if you started buying in 2021, then you're slightly behind versus the market but your investment certainly isn't trash. Furthermore, if you literally bought in the early part of 2021, and you held, then nothing bad has occurred. You are up. Again, volatility shakes out the weak hands. Long term, volatility is just noise - the price gets more and more smooth, year by year.</p>\n<p>Here's the insight. Buying and holding PLTR has worked out fine, even spectacularly, unless you bought during the big spikes in January, February, and March. Of course, if you traded against PLTR by shorting and buying puts during those times, you did fine. That's not my game, but I can see why it appeals to traders.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, here's the key: For long-term buy-and-hold investors, PLTR is moving along just fine. Perhaps it's not winning like crazy in terms of price, but it's not exactly losing either. Our horizon is long and strong.</p>\n<p>There Is a Disturbance in the Force</p>\n<p>I'm rather surprised that there hasn't been more focus on PLTR's big picture projections. Specifically, I am talking about this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56383c3eaaea1d58abb1307e4fde30c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:PLTR Q4 Business Update Presentation</p>\n<p>See the numbers there?<i>Revenue of $4 billion or more in 2025</i>.</p>\n<p>We also know that PLTR grew Q1 2021 revenue by49% year-over-year, generating $341 million across government and commercial segments. That's above the 45% revenue growth previously projected. That's a run rate of $800 million for 2021. And, for Q2 2021, revenue growth is expected to be 43%, which translates to $360 million.</p>\n<p>Those numbers for 2021 are fine and dandy and useful to hear. However, what I like more is that PLTR expects 30% growth in 2021 and the next four years. Yes, there's an implication of growth slowing in H2 of 2021, I see that too. However, we can run some pretty simple calculus with these numbers.</p>\n<p>First, we can start with the $800 million projection for 2021, check it against the 30% growth expectations. Here's how it lines up.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2021 = $800 million</li>\n <li>2022 = $1,040 million (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $1,350 million (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $1,760 million (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $2,300 million (30% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In other words, when we start with $800 million for 2021, it's pretty obvious that the 30% growth doesn't cut it. We cannot reach $4 billion by 2025 with \"only\" 30% growth. PLTR is perhapssandbaggingto keep expectations lower. It's hard to know for sure. It could also be that they expect faster growth in 2022 through 2025. Let's run these numbers again with 40% growth.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2021 = $800 million</li>\n <li>2022 = $1,120 million (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $1,570 million (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $2,195 million (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $3,070 million (40% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Once again, even with 40% year-over-year growth, we do not reach the $4 billion projected for 2025. Now, here's the first thing I want to point out about this oddity. My numbers might be wrong. My math might be too simple. I understand that possibility, but what this tells me is that PLTR has a different view of growth than my \"straight line\" projections. They are predators, but they are cautious too.</p>\n<p>What happens if we go a little crazy and use 49%, which is what PLTR achieved in Q1 2021. That's nearly 50% growth, of course. Here's how it looks using the same approach I've been using above.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2021 = $800 million</li>\n <li>2022 = $1,200 million (49% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $1,776 million (49% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $2,246 million (49% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $3,943 million (49% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Hopefully, now it's clear why I'm so surprised that this hasn't been given more attention. While I realize I'm using \"straight line\" projections year-over-year, I'm kind of shocked that these assumptions and projections haven't been better analyzed until now. The numbers are obvious and simple, and coming straight from PLTR.</p>\n<p>Again, maybe I've got something wrong here, but to achieve $4 billion in revenue in 2025,<i>PLTR is going to have to grow by 50% every year</i>, from 2022 through 2025. That's an empirical necessity. Therefore, either PLTR is dead wrong and cannot achieve $4 billion in revenue, or perhaps they expect growth to be 50% year-over-year, or maybe that growth will be 40%, then 50%, then even higher. That is, they expect growth to accelerate.</p>\n<p>I don't believe that PLTR would knowingly publish expectations of $4 billion in 2025 without strong conviction. That is to say, it doesn't appear to be aspirational given their relatively cautious and conservative leadership. After all, theywaited 17 years to go public. Plus, with their load of government customers, it's not like they can fly by the seat of their pants. It is not in their DNA or the culture of the business from what I've seen.</p>\n<p>Peers and Price</p>\n<p>Here we take an interesting turn. Although I've written about PLTR many times, I haven't revealed something publicly before. Specifically, I have direct experience with a defense contractor. To be even more precise, I worked inside a defense contractor in a privileged position with access to an amazing crew of programmers, engineers, and technicians. That experience gave me a direct, hands-on, real-world view of how government contracting works, how the government embraces technology, and how the pieces and parts are all stitched together. I'll stop short at this point; I can't provide more details.</p>\n<p>What I can tell you is that my previous work experience has helped me take a long view on PLTR. To wit, I bought PLTR early and I haven't sold a single share. Furthermore, as you might know already, I've boughtPLTR LEAPS.</p>\n<p>Additionally, I've had several people reach out to me 1-to-1 about PLTR, including their experiences and their views. During one of these exchanges, a high ranking official and I came to agree on PLTR's peer group. I'm certainly not talking about true competitors here. I'm very specifically talking about reasonable<i>comparisons</i>for the sake of valuation. I'm talking about the general vibe of data analytics at enterprise scale, user behavior analytics, data frameworks, and so on, and so forth. Here's the list:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Snowflake (SNOW)</li>\n <li>Alteryx (AYX)</li>\n <li>Datadog (DDOG)</li>\n <li>Salesforce (CRM)</li>\n <li>Splunk (SPLK)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>It's not necessary to agree on all of these. Instead, these are merely a reasonable cluster of companies that have similar characteristics to PLTR, although I would offer that<i>none of them would be a true direct peer</i>. I do not see even a single company that is as rich and robust as PLTR, nevertheless, we need something of a \"peer group\" to move forward.</p>\n<p>Now, with this in mind, here's how we'll proceed. Since PLTR is so newly listed and it's relatively young on the public market, I will keep things simple. I'm very interested in earnings and profits, of course, but here I want to simply compare PLTR on the basis of sales. Therefore, I feel it's somewhat rational to compare PLTR using price-to-sales. Here's how PLTR stacks up.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77f9e680346dc75cdad7e6073ba1c40\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"487\">Being really simple here, PLTR gets just 30-35% the P/S of SNOW. However, it gets triple that of CRM. That's quite a spread. Then again, SNOW is expecting 120% revenue growth in 2021 and86% in 2022. Right now, on the high end, SNOW has the growth edge. I am unclear about how that growth plays out into 2023, 2024, and 2025. I suspect the law of large numbers will kick in, and growth will slow. We'll see. Meanwhile, CRM is a large yet fast-growing company, clocking in with an impressive24% year-over-year revenue gain.</p>\n<p>I believe that SNOW's high growth rate will fall, as I hinted at above. Perhaps down into the 50-60% range over the next few years. We'll see. And, I believe that CRM will likely maintain a 22-25% growth rate. However, per PLTR's projections of $4 billion, I see growth above 30%. In fact, I see compound annual growth at 45-50%.</p>\n<p>In a funny way, all that doesn't even matter much. That's because the story I see is that PLTR doesn't need to massively grow beyond what we're already seeing. If we merely assume that PLTR can basically hang on to the growth it's getting right now - without any slowdown or acceleration - we can do some fun back-of-the-napkin math. The P/S ratios give us an indication that PLTR is trading at a price that is about right given its peers at this point in time. I'm not interested in SNOW vs. PLTR, or CRM vs. PLTR. I'm merely pointing out that PLTR's P/S is relatively rational given its growth. We can pivot a bit now.</p>\n<p>Here's another picture in my mind. If you take CRM and AYX, for example, both of which have a longer history than SNOW or PLTR, you can see that growing revenues translate to strongly growing stock prices. Furthermore, and more importantly, price growth roughly stays around revenue growth. Clearly, it's not perfect, but it sure looks highly correlated to me; 400% growth in AYX, and 150% growth in CRM. Timing matters here, of course, but the general trends here are telling.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20e55c201426815f58f411103f705b88\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\">This makes me feel comfortable making some broad generalizations. I'm going to give year-by-year price ranges for PLTR given 30-50% growth rates. This is supported by what I've seen in PLTR's peer group, whereby P/S makes sense given growth rates, and the revenue growth vs. share price growth seems to mirror each other fairly well. I'm not trying to be exactly right here. I'm looking for potentiality, given publicly available information.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Today = $24</li>\n <li>2022 = $31 (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $41 (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $52 (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $69 (30% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Now, let's juice the growth to 40%.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Today = $24</li>\n <li>2022 = $34 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $47 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $66 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $92 (40% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I still don't think that's accurate per my discussion up above. To achieve $4 billion in revenue, PLTR needs to hit about 50% growth every year. I'm going \"straight line\" again, with no assumptions about increasing or decreasing growth along the way. Again, I'm keeping this simple and easy. Here's how the price looks at that level of growth:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Today = $24</li>\n <li>2022 = $36 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $54 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $81 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $122 (50% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Perspective Is Everything</b></p>\n<p>Clearly, it's possible to be happy or sad about PLTR's price depending on when you bought. It would be understandable to be frustrated with PLTR if you bought around in the $35-45 range. On the other hand, if you bought down around $10-15, then you're probably feeling just fine. This isn't just how it works with PLTR, of course. Nevertheless, it's a healthy reminder.</p>\n<p>In the past, I've said I believe that PLTR will hit $75 by 2023. Even my relatively aggressive numbers above with 50% growth do not hit $75 in 2023, and in fact, I'm seeing $54 in 2023. However, here's the critical point. I still believe that PLTR is likely to hit $70-75 in 2023. I don't expect it to hold that price for long, but I do think because it's a growth company and because news and contacts are \"lumpy\" that we'll see spikes into the $70-75 range. Yet, since I don't trade, I'm fine sticking with my $50-55 normalized target. After all, I'm still doubling my money from this point. And it'll actually be about 5x my original investment in 2023 and 8-10x by 2025. I'm looking ahead about 3-4 years, and I'm seeing a 10-bagger for myself, given my cost basis. For most investors, PLTR appears to be an easy hold, and in fact, I think at $22-25, PLTR is a rational buy right now. I'd be far less interested in buying if the price spiked to $35 or above unless I was trading short-term options.</p>\n<p>And finally, what I'm seeing indicates that<i>PLTR is sandbagging on growth</i>, otherwise, its $4 billion in 2023 would have been revised downward. Therefore, given that large revenue target, I think it's safe to assume that PLTR actually must expect 45-50% growth, not the lower projection of 30%+ revenue growth as they have indicated in theQ4 2020andQ1 2021Earnings Call presentations. In short, I place my bets on more growth, not less. If that's true, the price will easily hold. Or, more likely, the price moves upward more aggressively over the coming years.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433292-palantir-sandbagging-growth-projections><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's price action this year.\nSecond, I examine PLTR's growth projections.\nThird, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group.\nLastly, I give my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433292-palantir-sandbagging-growth-projections\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433292-palantir-sandbagging-growth-projections","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133174841","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's price action this year.\nSecond, I examine PLTR's growth projections.\nThird, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group.\nLastly, I give my thoughts on price projections out through 2025.\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's(NYSE:PLTR)price action this year. I provide some quick thoughts on what I've seen. Second, I look into PLTR's growth projections. I believe the aggression is hidden and I reveal why I feel that way. Third, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group, and what that means going forward, especially in light of revenue growth into 2025. Lastly, I revisit the topic of price but also price projections for investors.\nRollercoaster\nHere's what's happened thus far in 2021.\nThe summary is simple. We are back where we started in January. If you bought and then closed your eyes, you would have gone absolutely nowhere. And, if your eyes were wide open, you would have experienced rather significant volatility, bouncing up against $39 but also muddling through $18. It goes without saying that PLTR has moved 50% top to bottom. But, importantly, we are back where we started.\nNow, here's where it gets interesting, because just putting money into the NASDAQ (QQQ) would give you superior returns with far less stomach-churning volatility. I'm not concerned with owning QQQ. I'm more than happy to own PLTR because, as I'll show later, it's likely to 5x my investment from this point in time. In any case, take a look at the relative calm of QQQ.\nHere I want to add another layer of paint. We started with PLTR itself, then added QQQ. What happens when we go back in time to PLTR's direct listing?\nThis is the picture that matters most to me. Here's what this means in simple terms, which is what works best in my mind. If you bought early, nothing really happened for a few weeks but then PLTR really took off. Therefore, early investors -like me- took the risk and have benefitted greatly despite all volatility after the directly public offering. With a long view, volatility is not a threat or a \"risk\", but instead, it's an opportunity to buy low.\nIn any case, if you started buying in 2021, then you're slightly behind versus the market but your investment certainly isn't trash. Furthermore, if you literally bought in the early part of 2021, and you held, then nothing bad has occurred. You are up. Again, volatility shakes out the weak hands. Long term, volatility is just noise - the price gets more and more smooth, year by year.\nHere's the insight. Buying and holding PLTR has worked out fine, even spectacularly, unless you bought during the big spikes in January, February, and March. Of course, if you traded against PLTR by shorting and buying puts during those times, you did fine. That's not my game, but I can see why it appeals to traders.\nNevertheless, here's the key: For long-term buy-and-hold investors, PLTR is moving along just fine. Perhaps it's not winning like crazy in terms of price, but it's not exactly losing either. Our horizon is long and strong.\nThere Is a Disturbance in the Force\nI'm rather surprised that there hasn't been more focus on PLTR's big picture projections. Specifically, I am talking about this:\nSource:PLTR Q4 Business Update Presentation\nSee the numbers there?Revenue of $4 billion or more in 2025.\nWe also know that PLTR grew Q1 2021 revenue by49% year-over-year, generating $341 million across government and commercial segments. That's above the 45% revenue growth previously projected. That's a run rate of $800 million for 2021. And, for Q2 2021, revenue growth is expected to be 43%, which translates to $360 million.\nThose numbers for 2021 are fine and dandy and useful to hear. However, what I like more is that PLTR expects 30% growth in 2021 and the next four years. Yes, there's an implication of growth slowing in H2 of 2021, I see that too. However, we can run some pretty simple calculus with these numbers.\nFirst, we can start with the $800 million projection for 2021, check it against the 30% growth expectations. Here's how it lines up.\n\n2021 = $800 million\n2022 = $1,040 million (30% growth)\n2023 = $1,350 million (30% growth)\n2024 = $1,760 million (30% growth)\n2025 = $2,300 million (30% growth)\n\nIn other words, when we start with $800 million for 2021, it's pretty obvious that the 30% growth doesn't cut it. We cannot reach $4 billion by 2025 with \"only\" 30% growth. PLTR is perhapssandbaggingto keep expectations lower. It's hard to know for sure. It could also be that they expect faster growth in 2022 through 2025. Let's run these numbers again with 40% growth.\n\n2021 = $800 million\n2022 = $1,120 million (40% growth)\n2023 = $1,570 million (40% growth)\n2024 = $2,195 million (40% growth)\n2025 = $3,070 million (40% growth)\n\nOnce again, even with 40% year-over-year growth, we do not reach the $4 billion projected for 2025. Now, here's the first thing I want to point out about this oddity. My numbers might be wrong. My math might be too simple. I understand that possibility, but what this tells me is that PLTR has a different view of growth than my \"straight line\" projections. They are predators, but they are cautious too.\nWhat happens if we go a little crazy and use 49%, which is what PLTR achieved in Q1 2021. That's nearly 50% growth, of course. Here's how it looks using the same approach I've been using above.\n\n2021 = $800 million\n2022 = $1,200 million (49% growth)\n2023 = $1,776 million (49% growth)\n2024 = $2,246 million (49% growth)\n2025 = $3,943 million (49% growth)\n\nHopefully, now it's clear why I'm so surprised that this hasn't been given more attention. While I realize I'm using \"straight line\" projections year-over-year, I'm kind of shocked that these assumptions and projections haven't been better analyzed until now. The numbers are obvious and simple, and coming straight from PLTR.\nAgain, maybe I've got something wrong here, but to achieve $4 billion in revenue in 2025,PLTR is going to have to grow by 50% every year, from 2022 through 2025. That's an empirical necessity. Therefore, either PLTR is dead wrong and cannot achieve $4 billion in revenue, or perhaps they expect growth to be 50% year-over-year, or maybe that growth will be 40%, then 50%, then even higher. That is, they expect growth to accelerate.\nI don't believe that PLTR would knowingly publish expectations of $4 billion in 2025 without strong conviction. That is to say, it doesn't appear to be aspirational given their relatively cautious and conservative leadership. After all, theywaited 17 years to go public. Plus, with their load of government customers, it's not like they can fly by the seat of their pants. It is not in their DNA or the culture of the business from what I've seen.\nPeers and Price\nHere we take an interesting turn. Although I've written about PLTR many times, I haven't revealed something publicly before. Specifically, I have direct experience with a defense contractor. To be even more precise, I worked inside a defense contractor in a privileged position with access to an amazing crew of programmers, engineers, and technicians. That experience gave me a direct, hands-on, real-world view of how government contracting works, how the government embraces technology, and how the pieces and parts are all stitched together. I'll stop short at this point; I can't provide more details.\nWhat I can tell you is that my previous work experience has helped me take a long view on PLTR. To wit, I bought PLTR early and I haven't sold a single share. Furthermore, as you might know already, I've boughtPLTR LEAPS.\nAdditionally, I've had several people reach out to me 1-to-1 about PLTR, including their experiences and their views. During one of these exchanges, a high ranking official and I came to agree on PLTR's peer group. I'm certainly not talking about true competitors here. I'm very specifically talking about reasonablecomparisonsfor the sake of valuation. I'm talking about the general vibe of data analytics at enterprise scale, user behavior analytics, data frameworks, and so on, and so forth. Here's the list:\n\nSnowflake (SNOW)\nAlteryx (AYX)\nDatadog (DDOG)\nSalesforce (CRM)\nSplunk (SPLK)\n\nIt's not necessary to agree on all of these. Instead, these are merely a reasonable cluster of companies that have similar characteristics to PLTR, although I would offer thatnone of them would be a true direct peer. I do not see even a single company that is as rich and robust as PLTR, nevertheless, we need something of a \"peer group\" to move forward.\nNow, with this in mind, here's how we'll proceed. Since PLTR is so newly listed and it's relatively young on the public market, I will keep things simple. I'm very interested in earnings and profits, of course, but here I want to simply compare PLTR on the basis of sales. Therefore, I feel it's somewhat rational to compare PLTR using price-to-sales. Here's how PLTR stacks up.\nBeing really simple here, PLTR gets just 30-35% the P/S of SNOW. However, it gets triple that of CRM. That's quite a spread. Then again, SNOW is expecting 120% revenue growth in 2021 and86% in 2022. Right now, on the high end, SNOW has the growth edge. I am unclear about how that growth plays out into 2023, 2024, and 2025. I suspect the law of large numbers will kick in, and growth will slow. We'll see. Meanwhile, CRM is a large yet fast-growing company, clocking in with an impressive24% year-over-year revenue gain.\nI believe that SNOW's high growth rate will fall, as I hinted at above. Perhaps down into the 50-60% range over the next few years. We'll see. And, I believe that CRM will likely maintain a 22-25% growth rate. However, per PLTR's projections of $4 billion, I see growth above 30%. In fact, I see compound annual growth at 45-50%.\nIn a funny way, all that doesn't even matter much. That's because the story I see is that PLTR doesn't need to massively grow beyond what we're already seeing. If we merely assume that PLTR can basically hang on to the growth it's getting right now - without any slowdown or acceleration - we can do some fun back-of-the-napkin math. The P/S ratios give us an indication that PLTR is trading at a price that is about right given its peers at this point in time. I'm not interested in SNOW vs. PLTR, or CRM vs. PLTR. I'm merely pointing out that PLTR's P/S is relatively rational given its growth. We can pivot a bit now.\nHere's another picture in my mind. If you take CRM and AYX, for example, both of which have a longer history than SNOW or PLTR, you can see that growing revenues translate to strongly growing stock prices. Furthermore, and more importantly, price growth roughly stays around revenue growth. Clearly, it's not perfect, but it sure looks highly correlated to me; 400% growth in AYX, and 150% growth in CRM. Timing matters here, of course, but the general trends here are telling.\nThis makes me feel comfortable making some broad generalizations. I'm going to give year-by-year price ranges for PLTR given 30-50% growth rates. This is supported by what I've seen in PLTR's peer group, whereby P/S makes sense given growth rates, and the revenue growth vs. share price growth seems to mirror each other fairly well. I'm not trying to be exactly right here. I'm looking for potentiality, given publicly available information.\n\nToday = $24\n2022 = $31 (30% growth)\n2023 = $41 (30% growth)\n2024 = $52 (30% growth)\n2025 = $69 (30% growth)\n\nNow, let's juice the growth to 40%.\n\nToday = $24\n2022 = $34 (40% growth)\n2023 = $47 (40% growth)\n2024 = $66 (40% growth)\n2025 = $92 (40% growth)\n\nI still don't think that's accurate per my discussion up above. To achieve $4 billion in revenue, PLTR needs to hit about 50% growth every year. I'm going \"straight line\" again, with no assumptions about increasing or decreasing growth along the way. Again, I'm keeping this simple and easy. Here's how the price looks at that level of growth:\n\nToday = $24\n2022 = $36 (50% growth)\n2023 = $54 (50% growth)\n2024 = $81 (50% growth)\n2025 = $122 (50% growth)\n\nPerspective Is Everything\nClearly, it's possible to be happy or sad about PLTR's price depending on when you bought. It would be understandable to be frustrated with PLTR if you bought around in the $35-45 range. On the other hand, if you bought down around $10-15, then you're probably feeling just fine. This isn't just how it works with PLTR, of course. Nevertheless, it's a healthy reminder.\nIn the past, I've said I believe that PLTR will hit $75 by 2023. Even my relatively aggressive numbers above with 50% growth do not hit $75 in 2023, and in fact, I'm seeing $54 in 2023. However, here's the critical point. I still believe that PLTR is likely to hit $70-75 in 2023. I don't expect it to hold that price for long, but I do think because it's a growth company and because news and contacts are \"lumpy\" that we'll see spikes into the $70-75 range. Yet, since I don't trade, I'm fine sticking with my $50-55 normalized target. After all, I'm still doubling my money from this point. And it'll actually be about 5x my original investment in 2023 and 8-10x by 2025. I'm looking ahead about 3-4 years, and I'm seeing a 10-bagger for myself, given my cost basis. For most investors, PLTR appears to be an easy hold, and in fact, I think at $22-25, PLTR is a rational buy right now. I'd be far less interested in buying if the price spiked to $35 or above unless I was trading short-term options.\nAnd finally, what I'm seeing indicates thatPLTR is sandbagging on growth, otherwise, its $4 billion in 2023 would have been revised downward. Therefore, given that large revenue target, I think it's safe to assume that PLTR actually must expect 45-50% growth, not the lower projection of 30%+ revenue growth as they have indicated in theQ4 2020andQ1 2021Earnings Call presentations. In short, I place my bets on more growth, not less. If that's true, the price will easily hold. Or, more likely, the price moves upward more aggressively over the coming years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327754187,"gmtCreate":1616129304349,"gmtModify":1704791325833,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"that's impressive","listText":"that's impressive","text":"that's impressive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327754187","repostId":"1121037863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121037863","pubTimestamp":1616124432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121037863?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Weibo Stock Jumped 5% Thursday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121037863","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese microblogging specialist beat Wall Street's estimates across the board in the fourth qua","content":"<p>The Chinese microblogging specialist beat Wall Street's estimates across the board in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p>\n<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>Chinese microblogging service&nbsp;<b>Weibo</b>(NASDAQ:WB)&nbsp;reported strong fourth-quarter results early Thursday morning, driving the stock as much as 4.7% higher. </p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Weibo's fourth-quarter sales rose 9.7% year over year, landing at $513 million. Adjusted earnings increased by 20% to $0.92 per diluted share. Your average analyst would have settled for earnings of roughly $0.74 per share on revenue near $499 million. Looking ahead, Weibo's management expects first-quarter sales to grow approximately 28%, which works out to $412 million. Here, the analyst consensus stopped at $399 million.</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>The company posted modest year-over-year user growth and wider profit margins. Management would have preferred the opposite situation, as Weibo's business model is tuned to maximize top-line growth and user additions at the expense of limited bottom-line profits, but exorbitant profits is one of the nicer problems a business can have.</p>\n<p>Weibo took this opportunity to promote finance VP Fei Cao to CFO. Furthermore, Wei Wang was installed as chief operating officer, a newly created position in Weibo's management structure. Both Cao and Wang originally joined Weibo from senior leadership positions in parent company&nbsp;<b>SINA</b>. The market calmly accepted these corner-office appointments.</p>\n<p>It's no surprise to see investors embracing Weibo's earnings beat and bullish guidance. The stock has now gained 48% in 52 weeks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Weibo Stock Jumped 5% Thursday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Weibo Stock Jumped 5% Thursday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/why-weibo-stock-jumped-10-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Chinese microblogging specialist beat Wall Street's estimates across the board in the fourth quarter of 2020.\nWhat happened\nChinese microblogging service Weibo(NASDAQ:WB) reported strong fourth-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/why-weibo-stock-jumped-10-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WB":"微博"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/18/why-weibo-stock-jumped-10-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121037863","content_text":"The Chinese microblogging specialist beat Wall Street's estimates across the board in the fourth quarter of 2020.\nWhat happened\nChinese microblogging service Weibo(NASDAQ:WB) reported strong fourth-quarter results early Thursday morning, driving the stock as much as 4.7% higher. \nSo what\nWeibo's fourth-quarter sales rose 9.7% year over year, landing at $513 million. Adjusted earnings increased by 20% to $0.92 per diluted share. Your average analyst would have settled for earnings of roughly $0.74 per share on revenue near $499 million. Looking ahead, Weibo's management expects first-quarter sales to grow approximately 28%, which works out to $412 million. Here, the analyst consensus stopped at $399 million.\nNow what\nThe company posted modest year-over-year user growth and wider profit margins. Management would have preferred the opposite situation, as Weibo's business model is tuned to maximize top-line growth and user additions at the expense of limited bottom-line profits, but exorbitant profits is one of the nicer problems a business can have.\nWeibo took this opportunity to promote finance VP Fei Cao to CFO. Furthermore, Wei Wang was installed as chief operating officer, a newly created position in Weibo's management structure. Both Cao and Wang originally joined Weibo from senior leadership positions in parent company SINA. The market calmly accepted these corner-office appointments.\nIt's no surprise to see investors embracing Weibo's earnings beat and bullish guidance. The stock has now gained 48% in 52 weeks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324000486,"gmtCreate":1615941276645,"gmtModify":1704788668110,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"keep it on","listText":"keep it on","text":"keep it on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324000486","repostId":"2119786999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119786999","pubTimestamp":1615894740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119786999?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 19:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AT&T's HBO Max Numbers Don't Add Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119786999","media":"James Brumley","summary":"And even if they did, the numbers still don't address investors' bigger questions.","content":"<p>The rhetoric is riveting.<b> AT&amp;T</b> (NYSE:T) just said it's upping expectations for the number of HBO streaming customers it will be serving by 2025, from 2019's projection of between 75 million and 90 million to its new outlook of a whopping 150 million. For perspective, <b>Walt Disney</b> (NYSE:DIS) just saw its Disney+ customer base eclipse the 100 million mark, while <b>Netflix</b> (NASDAQ:NFLX) boasts 204 million paying members worldwide. Not bad.</p><p>AT&amp;T's WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar went on to explain, \"Based on publicly available data and analysts' estimates, we believe that we are already the No. 2 revenue-generating stand-alone subscription video-on-demand service in the U.S.\" Presumably, Netflix's Canadian and United States customers paying an average of $13.51 a month qualify it as the domestic market leader.</p><p>Kilar's wording could be easily misinterpreted though, painting a far more bullish picture for AT&amp;T's streaming opportunity than merited.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F617972%2Fcalculator-adding-2.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><p><b>Confusing wording on what constitutes \"No. 2\"</b></p><p>The impasse is a lack of clarity on what Kilar meant by a \"revenue-generating stand-alone subscription video-on-demand service.\" His portion of AT&amp;T's virtual analyst day event held Friday was largely about HBO Max, so it would be easy to assume his accolade was attributable to HBO Max itself. But that math doesn't add up.</p><p>We don't know exactly how many people are paying HBO Max customers. We <i>do</i> know, however, that as of the end of last year there were a total of 41.5 million customers between the regular HBO service and the newer streaming HBO Max platform.</p><p>The catch: Most consumers enjoying HBO through their cable provider (or even outside of a conventional cable service) are eligible for free access to HBO Max, as are customers of several AT&amp;T Unlimited wireless plans.</p><p>We also know that as of the end of 2020, only 17.1 million people had actually activated their HBO Max option despite it being a no-cost bonus for many. Sure, a slew more could have been brought into the fold in the meantime. Given its relatively slow start in the midst of a pandemic that's starved consumers for entertainment though, it's unlikely growth in the number of paying HBO Max customers suddenly accelerated.</p><p><b>HBO Max is not actually No. 2 either</b></p><p>But coupling HBO with HBO Max qualifies it as a \"stand-alone subscription video-on-demand service?\"</p><p>That's a stretch. TV-delivered HBO isn't \"on-demand\" -- at least not in the sense we understand Disney+ or Netflix to be. And, if HBO Max customers are largely created by an existing relationship with AT&amp;T Wireless or HBO, that's not \"stand-alone\" either (again, at least not in the way Disney+ or Netflix are).</p><p>Even in playing out the best-case scenario though, 41.5 million customers paying the full retail price for any relationship with the HBO brand only gets AT&amp;T to an annualized revenue run rate of $7.5 billion. To this end, AT&amp;T said in Friday's presentation that all of the HBO brand's revenue-bearing platforms combined only drove $6.8 billion worth of business last year.</p><p>It's a figure that not only fails to rival Netflix's domestic top line but <b>Amazon</b>'s (NASDAQ:AMZN) likely Prime business in the United States too. Consumer Intelligence Research Partners estimates 126 million U.S. households are paying at least $9 per month -- the price of the video-only version of Prime. That's worth a minimum of $13.6 billion annually.</p><p>Also omitted from AT&amp;T's presentation numbers is how much of HBO's current business is actually generated by U.S. customers. Most probably is, but certainly, some of it isn't. Kilar didn't say.</p><p>Then there's the even bigger question: So what? HBO may be the second-biggest streaming brand in the United States, but is it the second-most profitable? Can it remain so? Remember, AT&amp;T is now managing two different video platforms. Some content overlaps. Other content doesn't. Both platforms require ongoing support and maintenance.</p><p><b>The cheering only highlights what AT&amp;T isn't saying</b></p><p>None of this is meant to pan AT&amp;T or Kilar. HBO Max is a success, and Kilar helped it become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>.</p><p>If a detail meant to excite investors is divulged though, it's subject to scrutiny. This <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> just doesn't hold up very well, prompting questions of why it was offered in the first place; it particularly misses the relevancy mark. It would be far more helpful to know many HBO Max subscribers -- regardless of their location -- are actually paying for the service and how much they're paying per month. Netflix and Walt Disney already disclose such metrics.</p><p>There's one bright spot to the WarnerMedia portion of Friday's analyst day event, however. That is, the company believes HBO in its entirety will more than double 2020's top line of $6.8 billion by 2025 when it's expected to break even on $15 billion in revenue. Of course, that also implies the division is losing money now, and likely will for the next four years.</p><p>All of a sudden, HBO's suggested questionable share of the United States' streaming market doesn't really matter much anyway.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AT&T's HBO Max Numbers Don't Add Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAT&T's HBO Max Numbers Don't Add Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 19:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/att-hbo-max-subscriber-numbers-dont-add-up/><strong>James Brumley</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The rhetoric is riveting. AT&T (NYSE:T) just said it's upping expectations for the number of HBO streaming customers it will be serving by 2025, from 2019's projection of between 75 million and 90 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/att-hbo-max-subscriber-numbers-dont-add-up/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"美国电话电报","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/att-hbo-max-subscriber-numbers-dont-add-up/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119786999","content_text":"The rhetoric is riveting. AT&T (NYSE:T) just said it's upping expectations for the number of HBO streaming customers it will be serving by 2025, from 2019's projection of between 75 million and 90 million to its new outlook of a whopping 150 million. For perspective, Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) just saw its Disney+ customer base eclipse the 100 million mark, while Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) boasts 204 million paying members worldwide. Not bad.AT&T's WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar went on to explain, \"Based on publicly available data and analysts' estimates, we believe that we are already the No. 2 revenue-generating stand-alone subscription video-on-demand service in the U.S.\" Presumably, Netflix's Canadian and United States customers paying an average of $13.51 a month qualify it as the domestic market leader.Kilar's wording could be easily misinterpreted though, painting a far more bullish picture for AT&T's streaming opportunity than merited.Image source: Getty Images.Confusing wording on what constitutes \"No. 2\"The impasse is a lack of clarity on what Kilar meant by a \"revenue-generating stand-alone subscription video-on-demand service.\" His portion of AT&T's virtual analyst day event held Friday was largely about HBO Max, so it would be easy to assume his accolade was attributable to HBO Max itself. But that math doesn't add up.We don't know exactly how many people are paying HBO Max customers. We do know, however, that as of the end of last year there were a total of 41.5 million customers between the regular HBO service and the newer streaming HBO Max platform.The catch: Most consumers enjoying HBO through their cable provider (or even outside of a conventional cable service) are eligible for free access to HBO Max, as are customers of several AT&T Unlimited wireless plans.We also know that as of the end of 2020, only 17.1 million people had actually activated their HBO Max option despite it being a no-cost bonus for many. Sure, a slew more could have been brought into the fold in the meantime. Given its relatively slow start in the midst of a pandemic that's starved consumers for entertainment though, it's unlikely growth in the number of paying HBO Max customers suddenly accelerated.HBO Max is not actually No. 2 eitherBut coupling HBO with HBO Max qualifies it as a \"stand-alone subscription video-on-demand service?\"That's a stretch. TV-delivered HBO isn't \"on-demand\" -- at least not in the sense we understand Disney+ or Netflix to be. And, if HBO Max customers are largely created by an existing relationship with AT&T Wireless or HBO, that's not \"stand-alone\" either (again, at least not in the way Disney+ or Netflix are).Even in playing out the best-case scenario though, 41.5 million customers paying the full retail price for any relationship with the HBO brand only gets AT&T to an annualized revenue run rate of $7.5 billion. To this end, AT&T said in Friday's presentation that all of the HBO brand's revenue-bearing platforms combined only drove $6.8 billion worth of business last year.It's a figure that not only fails to rival Netflix's domestic top line but Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) likely Prime business in the United States too. Consumer Intelligence Research Partners estimates 126 million U.S. households are paying at least $9 per month -- the price of the video-only version of Prime. That's worth a minimum of $13.6 billion annually.Also omitted from AT&T's presentation numbers is how much of HBO's current business is actually generated by U.S. customers. Most probably is, but certainly, some of it isn't. Kilar didn't say.Then there's the even bigger question: So what? HBO may be the second-biggest streaming brand in the United States, but is it the second-most profitable? Can it remain so? Remember, AT&T is now managing two different video platforms. Some content overlaps. Other content doesn't. Both platforms require ongoing support and maintenance.The cheering only highlights what AT&T isn't sayingNone of this is meant to pan AT&T or Kilar. HBO Max is a success, and Kilar helped it become one.If a detail meant to excite investors is divulged though, it's subject to scrutiny. This one just doesn't hold up very well, prompting questions of why it was offered in the first place; it particularly misses the relevancy mark. It would be far more helpful to know many HBO Max subscribers -- regardless of their location -- are actually paying for the service and how much they're paying per month. Netflix and Walt Disney already disclose such metrics.There's one bright spot to the WarnerMedia portion of Friday's analyst day event, however. That is, the company believes HBO in its entirety will more than double 2020's top line of $6.8 billion by 2025 when it's expected to break even on $15 billion in revenue. Of course, that also implies the division is losing money now, and likely will for the next four years.All of a sudden, HBO's suggested questionable share of the United States' streaming market doesn't really matter much anyway.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320267014,"gmtCreate":1615119890938,"gmtModify":1704778773571,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"future of surgical","listText":"future of surgical","text":"future of surgical","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320267014","repostId":"2117639609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117639609","pubTimestamp":1614957600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117639609?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117639609","media":"Jason Hawthorne","summary":"Competition is heating up, but the company's market leadership remains unchallenged.","content":"<p>After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, <b>Intuitive</b> <b>Surgical</b> (NASDAQ:ISRG) has been slowly changing that. The company's da Vinci surgical systems only assist trained humans, but they have become synonymous with the term \"robotic surgery.\"</p><p>After so much success, interested investors will want to determine whether the future can be as bright as the past, or if the combination of COVID, regulatory hurdles, and competition will chip away at the dominance this company has established since going public in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F615724%2Fgettyimages-1218322943.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The arms of a surgical robot. Image source: Getty Images.</p><p><b>Managing through COVID-19</b></p><p>Early during the pandemic, when hospitals were stopping elective procedures to dedicate resources to patients with COVID-19, the company's sales tumbled. Year-over-year revenue declined 22% in the second quarter of 2020 on 19% fewer procedures.</p><p>Procedures and revenue rebounded slightly in the following quarter, up 7% and down 4.5%, respectively, compared to 2019. The fourth quarter finally saw year-over-year revenue growth of 4%, but management remained cautious.</p><p>Citing a holiday rise in COVID-19 cases, CEO Gary Guthart pointed to a lag in diagnostic cases at hospitals and weak surgery data spilling over from December into January as an indication that the sales of da Vinci systems would take several quarters to normalize. With fewer cases, utilization of existing machines will remain low, delaying the need to add capacity.</p><p>Although this is definitely a concern, it's a temporary <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. By the end of 2021, orders and installations should be back to normal. System growth has averaged 12% a year over the past decade and 28% for the three years prior to the pandemic. Investors are hoping the return to normal comes sooner rather than later.</p><p><b>A changing regulatory landscape</b></p><p>In recent quarters, management has become much more vocal about a shifting regulatory landscape in the U.S. and Europe, and the requirement for more data than ever before prior to approval. Guthart has said the requirements have stabilized at a level higher than in past years. Although it's a short-term nuisance, this change stands to benefit incumbents like Intuitive over time, because existing systems will sit on the market longer while innovations wait for approval.</p><p>One region where the company has drastically different regulatory experiences is Asia. Guthart has repeatedly cited South Korea as being quick to allow innovative products to market, while China's centrally managed system is more cautious. System sales in the region grew 60% from 2018 to 2019 before falling off during 2020 due to the pandemic. Products launched in China must have a longer history of performance because that country's version of the Food and Drug Administration handles first-generation products very cautiously. Regardless, the company remains excited about its joint venture with Chinese company Fosun Pharma and expects strong, if somewhat turbulent, demand over time.</p><p><b>Defending the moat</b></p><p>One of the risks in China is the launch of companies trying to bring competitive surgical systems to market. This has already happened in South Korea. That country's embrace of innovation is a double-edged sword for Intuitive -- South Korea's first approved surgical robot was made by <b>Meere</b> back in 2017.</p><p>Asia isn't the only region where companies are tired of Intuitive reaping the lion's share of the robotic surgery opportunity. Closer to home, the company faces long-awaited challenges from device makers <b>Medtronic</b> (NYSE:MDT) and <b>Johnson</b> <b>&amp;</b> <b>Johnson</b> (NYSE:JNJ).</p><p>Medtronic made its intentions clear by acquiring spine surgery innovator Mazor Robotics in 2018. It is planning a launch of its Hugo surgical system outside the U.S. to collect data, and expects to submit for an investigational device exemption from the FDA in the next month. That designation would allow the device to be used in a clinical study.</p><p>Johnson &amp; Johnson has a not-so-secret weapon in the battle for the robotic surgery market: the founder of Intuitive Surgical. Dr. Fred Moll, who practically invented the industry when he founded Intuitive in 1995, is chief development officer at the company's devices unit. With his guidance, the healthcare giant plans to commercialize three robotic platforms it gained via acquisition.</p><p>First, the Velys platform is for total knee replacements. This is the type of high-volume, repeatable procedure that is ripe for robotic assistance. But it's a threat to <b>Stryker</b> and <b>Smith</b> <b>&amp;</b> <b>Nephew</b>, not Intuitive.</p><p>Second, the Monarch platform is for a procedure that lets doctors inspect the lungs and air passages. It will eventually be used for lung biopsies, but Intuitive is already staking a claim here with its Ion system. In fact, Intuitive received FDA approval for the procedure in the first quarter of 2019.</p><p>And third, Johnson &amp; Johnson's Ottava general surgery system was introduced in November after much anticipation. The device integrates with an operating table and has six arms, several more than systems currently on the market. The goal is flexibility. If Ottava can perform many types of operations, it will help hospitals avoid buying multiple robots, each with a different purpose. The system is unlikely to come to market before 2024.</p><p><b>Clear skies, with a few clouds on the horizon</b></p><p>Despite some regulatory red tape at home and upstart competition abroad, the path for Intuitive Surgical to continue its decades of growth seems clear. The company is well ahead of the competition with nearly 6,000 surgical systems already installed around the globe, and it will be hard for competitors to replace them. That is especially true as innovation in da Vinci systems, instrumentation, and capability continues to increase both machine utilization and company sales.</p><p>As a shareholder, I'll be watching the regulatory progress of the competing systems. But changes in the approval process have only made it harder for the competition to get a foothold. With no imminent threats for at least the next few years, the shares will stay tucked away in a part of my portfolio as far from the sell button as any I own. For those looking to add the stock to their own portfolios, the recent market volatility may have provided the opportunity they've been waiting for.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-05 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/><strong>Jason Hawthorne</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F615724%2Fgettyimages-1218322943.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize","relate_stocks":{"ISRG":"直觉外科公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117639609","content_text":"After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) has been slowly changing that. The company's da Vinci surgical systems only assist trained humans, but they have become synonymous with the term \"robotic surgery.\"After so much success, interested investors will want to determine whether the future can be as bright as the past, or if the combination of COVID, regulatory hurdles, and competition will chip away at the dominance this company has established since going public in 2000.The arms of a surgical robot. Image source: Getty Images.Managing through COVID-19Early during the pandemic, when hospitals were stopping elective procedures to dedicate resources to patients with COVID-19, the company's sales tumbled. Year-over-year revenue declined 22% in the second quarter of 2020 on 19% fewer procedures.Procedures and revenue rebounded slightly in the following quarter, up 7% and down 4.5%, respectively, compared to 2019. The fourth quarter finally saw year-over-year revenue growth of 4%, but management remained cautious.Citing a holiday rise in COVID-19 cases, CEO Gary Guthart pointed to a lag in diagnostic cases at hospitals and weak surgery data spilling over from December into January as an indication that the sales of da Vinci systems would take several quarters to normalize. With fewer cases, utilization of existing machines will remain low, delaying the need to add capacity.Although this is definitely a concern, it's a temporary one. By the end of 2021, orders and installations should be back to normal. System growth has averaged 12% a year over the past decade and 28% for the three years prior to the pandemic. Investors are hoping the return to normal comes sooner rather than later.A changing regulatory landscapeIn recent quarters, management has become much more vocal about a shifting regulatory landscape in the U.S. and Europe, and the requirement for more data than ever before prior to approval. Guthart has said the requirements have stabilized at a level higher than in past years. Although it's a short-term nuisance, this change stands to benefit incumbents like Intuitive over time, because existing systems will sit on the market longer while innovations wait for approval.One region where the company has drastically different regulatory experiences is Asia. Guthart has repeatedly cited South Korea as being quick to allow innovative products to market, while China's centrally managed system is more cautious. System sales in the region grew 60% from 2018 to 2019 before falling off during 2020 due to the pandemic. Products launched in China must have a longer history of performance because that country's version of the Food and Drug Administration handles first-generation products very cautiously. Regardless, the company remains excited about its joint venture with Chinese company Fosun Pharma and expects strong, if somewhat turbulent, demand over time.Defending the moatOne of the risks in China is the launch of companies trying to bring competitive surgical systems to market. This has already happened in South Korea. That country's embrace of innovation is a double-edged sword for Intuitive -- South Korea's first approved surgical robot was made by Meere back in 2017.Asia isn't the only region where companies are tired of Intuitive reaping the lion's share of the robotic surgery opportunity. Closer to home, the company faces long-awaited challenges from device makers Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).Medtronic made its intentions clear by acquiring spine surgery innovator Mazor Robotics in 2018. It is planning a launch of its Hugo surgical system outside the U.S. to collect data, and expects to submit for an investigational device exemption from the FDA in the next month. That designation would allow the device to be used in a clinical study.Johnson & Johnson has a not-so-secret weapon in the battle for the robotic surgery market: the founder of Intuitive Surgical. Dr. Fred Moll, who practically invented the industry when he founded Intuitive in 1995, is chief development officer at the company's devices unit. With his guidance, the healthcare giant plans to commercialize three robotic platforms it gained via acquisition.First, the Velys platform is for total knee replacements. This is the type of high-volume, repeatable procedure that is ripe for robotic assistance. But it's a threat to Stryker and Smith & Nephew, not Intuitive.Second, the Monarch platform is for a procedure that lets doctors inspect the lungs and air passages. It will eventually be used for lung biopsies, but Intuitive is already staking a claim here with its Ion system. In fact, Intuitive received FDA approval for the procedure in the first quarter of 2019.And third, Johnson & Johnson's Ottava general surgery system was introduced in November after much anticipation. The device integrates with an operating table and has six arms, several more than systems currently on the market. The goal is flexibility. If Ottava can perform many types of operations, it will help hospitals avoid buying multiple robots, each with a different purpose. The system is unlikely to come to market before 2024.Clear skies, with a few clouds on the horizonDespite some regulatory red tape at home and upstart competition abroad, the path for Intuitive Surgical to continue its decades of growth seems clear. The company is well ahead of the competition with nearly 6,000 surgical systems already installed around the globe, and it will be hard for competitors to replace them. That is especially true as innovation in da Vinci systems, instrumentation, and capability continues to increase both machine utilization and company sales.As a shareholder, I'll be watching the regulatory progress of the competing systems. But changes in the approval process have only made it harder for the competition to get a foothold. With no imminent threats for at least the next few years, the shares will stay tucked away in a part of my portfolio as far from the sell button as any I own. For those looking to add the stock to their own portfolios, the recent market volatility may have provided the opportunity they've been waiting for.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365784465,"gmtCreate":1614780784457,"gmtModify":1704775134168,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for the sharing","listText":"thanks for the sharing","text":"thanks for the sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365784465","repostId":"1150809937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":324000486,"gmtCreate":1615941276645,"gmtModify":1704788668110,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"keep it on","listText":"keep it on","text":"keep it on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324000486","repostId":"2119786999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327754187,"gmtCreate":1616129304349,"gmtModify":1704791325833,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"that's impressive","listText":"that's impressive","text":"that's impressive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327754187","repostId":"1121037863","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365784465,"gmtCreate":1614780784457,"gmtModify":1704775134168,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for the sharing","listText":"thanks for the sharing","text":"thanks for the sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365784465","repostId":"1150809937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320267014,"gmtCreate":1615119890938,"gmtModify":1704778773571,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"future of surgical","listText":"future of surgical","text":"future of surgical","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320267014","repostId":"2117639609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117639609","pubTimestamp":1614957600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117639609?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117639609","media":"Jason Hawthorne","summary":"Competition is heating up, but the company's market leadership remains unchallenged.","content":"<p>After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, <b>Intuitive</b> <b>Surgical</b> (NASDAQ:ISRG) has been slowly changing that. The company's da Vinci surgical systems only assist trained humans, but they have become synonymous with the term \"robotic surgery.\"</p><p>After so much success, interested investors will want to determine whether the future can be as bright as the past, or if the combination of COVID, regulatory hurdles, and competition will chip away at the dominance this company has established since going public in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F615724%2Fgettyimages-1218322943.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The arms of a surgical robot. Image source: Getty Images.</p><p><b>Managing through COVID-19</b></p><p>Early during the pandemic, when hospitals were stopping elective procedures to dedicate resources to patients with COVID-19, the company's sales tumbled. Year-over-year revenue declined 22% in the second quarter of 2020 on 19% fewer procedures.</p><p>Procedures and revenue rebounded slightly in the following quarter, up 7% and down 4.5%, respectively, compared to 2019. The fourth quarter finally saw year-over-year revenue growth of 4%, but management remained cautious.</p><p>Citing a holiday rise in COVID-19 cases, CEO Gary Guthart pointed to a lag in diagnostic cases at hospitals and weak surgery data spilling over from December into January as an indication that the sales of da Vinci systems would take several quarters to normalize. With fewer cases, utilization of existing machines will remain low, delaying the need to add capacity.</p><p>Although this is definitely a concern, it's a temporary <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. By the end of 2021, orders and installations should be back to normal. System growth has averaged 12% a year over the past decade and 28% for the three years prior to the pandemic. Investors are hoping the return to normal comes sooner rather than later.</p><p><b>A changing regulatory landscape</b></p><p>In recent quarters, management has become much more vocal about a shifting regulatory landscape in the U.S. and Europe, and the requirement for more data than ever before prior to approval. Guthart has said the requirements have stabilized at a level higher than in past years. Although it's a short-term nuisance, this change stands to benefit incumbents like Intuitive over time, because existing systems will sit on the market longer while innovations wait for approval.</p><p>One region where the company has drastically different regulatory experiences is Asia. Guthart has repeatedly cited South Korea as being quick to allow innovative products to market, while China's centrally managed system is more cautious. System sales in the region grew 60% from 2018 to 2019 before falling off during 2020 due to the pandemic. Products launched in China must have a longer history of performance because that country's version of the Food and Drug Administration handles first-generation products very cautiously. Regardless, the company remains excited about its joint venture with Chinese company Fosun Pharma and expects strong, if somewhat turbulent, demand over time.</p><p><b>Defending the moat</b></p><p>One of the risks in China is the launch of companies trying to bring competitive surgical systems to market. This has already happened in South Korea. That country's embrace of innovation is a double-edged sword for Intuitive -- South Korea's first approved surgical robot was made by <b>Meere</b> back in 2017.</p><p>Asia isn't the only region where companies are tired of Intuitive reaping the lion's share of the robotic surgery opportunity. Closer to home, the company faces long-awaited challenges from device makers <b>Medtronic</b> (NYSE:MDT) and <b>Johnson</b> <b>&amp;</b> <b>Johnson</b> (NYSE:JNJ).</p><p>Medtronic made its intentions clear by acquiring spine surgery innovator Mazor Robotics in 2018. It is planning a launch of its Hugo surgical system outside the U.S. to collect data, and expects to submit for an investigational device exemption from the FDA in the next month. That designation would allow the device to be used in a clinical study.</p><p>Johnson &amp; Johnson has a not-so-secret weapon in the battle for the robotic surgery market: the founder of Intuitive Surgical. Dr. Fred Moll, who practically invented the industry when he founded Intuitive in 1995, is chief development officer at the company's devices unit. With his guidance, the healthcare giant plans to commercialize three robotic platforms it gained via acquisition.</p><p>First, the Velys platform is for total knee replacements. This is the type of high-volume, repeatable procedure that is ripe for robotic assistance. But it's a threat to <b>Stryker</b> and <b>Smith</b> <b>&amp;</b> <b>Nephew</b>, not Intuitive.</p><p>Second, the Monarch platform is for a procedure that lets doctors inspect the lungs and air passages. It will eventually be used for lung biopsies, but Intuitive is already staking a claim here with its Ion system. In fact, Intuitive received FDA approval for the procedure in the first quarter of 2019.</p><p>And third, Johnson &amp; Johnson's Ottava general surgery system was introduced in November after much anticipation. The device integrates with an operating table and has six arms, several more than systems currently on the market. The goal is flexibility. If Ottava can perform many types of operations, it will help hospitals avoid buying multiple robots, each with a different purpose. The system is unlikely to come to market before 2024.</p><p><b>Clear skies, with a few clouds on the horizon</b></p><p>Despite some regulatory red tape at home and upstart competition abroad, the path for Intuitive Surgical to continue its decades of growth seems clear. The company is well ahead of the competition with nearly 6,000 surgical systems already installed around the globe, and it will be hard for competitors to replace them. That is especially true as innovation in da Vinci systems, instrumentation, and capability continues to increase both machine utilization and company sales.</p><p>As a shareholder, I'll be watching the regulatory progress of the competing systems. But changes in the approval process have only made it harder for the competition to get a foothold. With no imminent threats for at least the next few years, the shares will stay tucked away in a part of my portfolio as far from the sell button as any I own. For those looking to add the stock to their own portfolios, the recent market volatility may have provided the opportunity they've been waiting for.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-05 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/><strong>Jason Hawthorne</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F615724%2Fgettyimages-1218322943.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize","relate_stocks":{"ISRG":"直觉外科公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117639609","content_text":"After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) has been slowly changing that. The company's da Vinci surgical systems only assist trained humans, but they have become synonymous with the term \"robotic surgery.\"After so much success, interested investors will want to determine whether the future can be as bright as the past, or if the combination of COVID, regulatory hurdles, and competition will chip away at the dominance this company has established since going public in 2000.The arms of a surgical robot. Image source: Getty Images.Managing through COVID-19Early during the pandemic, when hospitals were stopping elective procedures to dedicate resources to patients with COVID-19, the company's sales tumbled. Year-over-year revenue declined 22% in the second quarter of 2020 on 19% fewer procedures.Procedures and revenue rebounded slightly in the following quarter, up 7% and down 4.5%, respectively, compared to 2019. The fourth quarter finally saw year-over-year revenue growth of 4%, but management remained cautious.Citing a holiday rise in COVID-19 cases, CEO Gary Guthart pointed to a lag in diagnostic cases at hospitals and weak surgery data spilling over from December into January as an indication that the sales of da Vinci systems would take several quarters to normalize. With fewer cases, utilization of existing machines will remain low, delaying the need to add capacity.Although this is definitely a concern, it's a temporary one. By the end of 2021, orders and installations should be back to normal. System growth has averaged 12% a year over the past decade and 28% for the three years prior to the pandemic. Investors are hoping the return to normal comes sooner rather than later.A changing regulatory landscapeIn recent quarters, management has become much more vocal about a shifting regulatory landscape in the U.S. and Europe, and the requirement for more data than ever before prior to approval. Guthart has said the requirements have stabilized at a level higher than in past years. Although it's a short-term nuisance, this change stands to benefit incumbents like Intuitive over time, because existing systems will sit on the market longer while innovations wait for approval.One region where the company has drastically different regulatory experiences is Asia. Guthart has repeatedly cited South Korea as being quick to allow innovative products to market, while China's centrally managed system is more cautious. System sales in the region grew 60% from 2018 to 2019 before falling off during 2020 due to the pandemic. Products launched in China must have a longer history of performance because that country's version of the Food and Drug Administration handles first-generation products very cautiously. Regardless, the company remains excited about its joint venture with Chinese company Fosun Pharma and expects strong, if somewhat turbulent, demand over time.Defending the moatOne of the risks in China is the launch of companies trying to bring competitive surgical systems to market. This has already happened in South Korea. That country's embrace of innovation is a double-edged sword for Intuitive -- South Korea's first approved surgical robot was made by Meere back in 2017.Asia isn't the only region where companies are tired of Intuitive reaping the lion's share of the robotic surgery opportunity. Closer to home, the company faces long-awaited challenges from device makers Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).Medtronic made its intentions clear by acquiring spine surgery innovator Mazor Robotics in 2018. It is planning a launch of its Hugo surgical system outside the U.S. to collect data, and expects to submit for an investigational device exemption from the FDA in the next month. That designation would allow the device to be used in a clinical study.Johnson & Johnson has a not-so-secret weapon in the battle for the robotic surgery market: the founder of Intuitive Surgical. Dr. Fred Moll, who practically invented the industry when he founded Intuitive in 1995, is chief development officer at the company's devices unit. With his guidance, the healthcare giant plans to commercialize three robotic platforms it gained via acquisition.First, the Velys platform is for total knee replacements. This is the type of high-volume, repeatable procedure that is ripe for robotic assistance. But it's a threat to Stryker and Smith & Nephew, not Intuitive.Second, the Monarch platform is for a procedure that lets doctors inspect the lungs and air passages. It will eventually be used for lung biopsies, but Intuitive is already staking a claim here with its Ion system. In fact, Intuitive received FDA approval for the procedure in the first quarter of 2019.And third, Johnson & Johnson's Ottava general surgery system was introduced in November after much anticipation. The device integrates with an operating table and has six arms, several more than systems currently on the market. The goal is flexibility. If Ottava can perform many types of operations, it will help hospitals avoid buying multiple robots, each with a different purpose. The system is unlikely to come to market before 2024.Clear skies, with a few clouds on the horizonDespite some regulatory red tape at home and upstart competition abroad, the path for Intuitive Surgical to continue its decades of growth seems clear. The company is well ahead of the competition with nearly 6,000 surgical systems already installed around the globe, and it will be hard for competitors to replace them. That is especially true as innovation in da Vinci systems, instrumentation, and capability continues to increase both machine utilization and company sales.As a shareholder, I'll be watching the regulatory progress of the competing systems. But changes in the approval process have only made it harder for the competition to get a foothold. With no imminent threats for at least the next few years, the shares will stay tucked away in a part of my portfolio as far from the sell button as any I own. For those looking to add the stock to their own portfolios, the recent market volatility may have provided the opportunity they've been waiting for.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160304490,"gmtCreate":1623771280410,"gmtModify":1703818990396,"author":{"id":"3577164656887884","authorId":"3577164656887884","name":"NimhyJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577164656887884","authorIdStr":"3577164656887884"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the summary","listText":"Thanks for the summary","text":"Thanks for the summary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160304490","repostId":"1133174841","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133174841","pubTimestamp":1623078982,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133174841?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133174841","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's price action this year.\nSecond, I examine PLTR's growth project","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>First, I look at Palantir's price action this year.</li>\n <li>Second, I examine PLTR's growth projections.</li>\n <li>Third, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group.</li>\n <li>Lastly, I give my thoughts on price projections out through 2025.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>First, I look at Palantir's(NYSE:PLTR)price action this year. I provide some quick thoughts on what I've seen. Second, I look into PLTR's growth projections. I believe the aggression is hidden and I reveal why I feel that way. Third, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group, and what that means going forward, especially in light of revenue growth into 2025. Lastly, I revisit the topic of price but also price projections for investors.</p>\n<p><b>Rollercoaster</b></p>\n<p>Here's what's happened thus far in 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db04b39e358c9cdec5bc2d02251bd13\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The summary is simple. We are back where we started in January. If you bought and then closed your eyes, you would have gone absolutely nowhere. And, if your eyes were wide open, you would have experienced rather significant volatility, bouncing up against $39 but also muddling through $18. It goes without saying that PLTR has moved 50% top to bottom. But, importantly, we are back where we started.</p>\n<p>Now, here's where it gets interesting, because just putting money into the NASDAQ (QQQ) would give you superior returns with far less stomach-churning volatility. I'm not concerned with owning QQQ. I'm more than happy to own PLTR because, as I'll show later, it's likely to 5x my investment from this point in time. In any case, take a look at the relative calm of QQQ.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5563cce1afd961f1fe70a3ad7af88891\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here I want to add another layer of paint. We started with PLTR itself, then added QQQ. What happens when we go back in time to PLTR's direct listing?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804f2c567c89bab14a62ee5b333631bb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is the picture that matters most to me. Here's what this means in simple terms, which is what works best in my mind. If you bought early, nothing really happened for a few weeks but then PLTR really took off. Therefore, early investors -<i>like me</i>- took the risk and have benefitted greatly despite all volatility after the directly public offering. With a long view, volatility is not a threat or a \"risk\", but instead, it's an opportunity to buy low.</p>\n<p>In any case, if you started buying in 2021, then you're slightly behind versus the market but your investment certainly isn't trash. Furthermore, if you literally bought in the early part of 2021, and you held, then nothing bad has occurred. You are up. Again, volatility shakes out the weak hands. Long term, volatility is just noise - the price gets more and more smooth, year by year.</p>\n<p>Here's the insight. Buying and holding PLTR has worked out fine, even spectacularly, unless you bought during the big spikes in January, February, and March. Of course, if you traded against PLTR by shorting and buying puts during those times, you did fine. That's not my game, but I can see why it appeals to traders.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, here's the key: For long-term buy-and-hold investors, PLTR is moving along just fine. Perhaps it's not winning like crazy in terms of price, but it's not exactly losing either. Our horizon is long and strong.</p>\n<p>There Is a Disturbance in the Force</p>\n<p>I'm rather surprised that there hasn't been more focus on PLTR's big picture projections. Specifically, I am talking about this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56383c3eaaea1d58abb1307e4fde30c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:PLTR Q4 Business Update Presentation</p>\n<p>See the numbers there?<i>Revenue of $4 billion or more in 2025</i>.</p>\n<p>We also know that PLTR grew Q1 2021 revenue by49% year-over-year, generating $341 million across government and commercial segments. That's above the 45% revenue growth previously projected. That's a run rate of $800 million for 2021. And, for Q2 2021, revenue growth is expected to be 43%, which translates to $360 million.</p>\n<p>Those numbers for 2021 are fine and dandy and useful to hear. However, what I like more is that PLTR expects 30% growth in 2021 and the next four years. Yes, there's an implication of growth slowing in H2 of 2021, I see that too. However, we can run some pretty simple calculus with these numbers.</p>\n<p>First, we can start with the $800 million projection for 2021, check it against the 30% growth expectations. Here's how it lines up.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2021 = $800 million</li>\n <li>2022 = $1,040 million (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $1,350 million (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $1,760 million (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $2,300 million (30% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In other words, when we start with $800 million for 2021, it's pretty obvious that the 30% growth doesn't cut it. We cannot reach $4 billion by 2025 with \"only\" 30% growth. PLTR is perhapssandbaggingto keep expectations lower. It's hard to know for sure. It could also be that they expect faster growth in 2022 through 2025. Let's run these numbers again with 40% growth.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2021 = $800 million</li>\n <li>2022 = $1,120 million (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $1,570 million (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $2,195 million (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $3,070 million (40% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Once again, even with 40% year-over-year growth, we do not reach the $4 billion projected for 2025. Now, here's the first thing I want to point out about this oddity. My numbers might be wrong. My math might be too simple. I understand that possibility, but what this tells me is that PLTR has a different view of growth than my \"straight line\" projections. They are predators, but they are cautious too.</p>\n<p>What happens if we go a little crazy and use 49%, which is what PLTR achieved in Q1 2021. That's nearly 50% growth, of course. Here's how it looks using the same approach I've been using above.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2021 = $800 million</li>\n <li>2022 = $1,200 million (49% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $1,776 million (49% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $2,246 million (49% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $3,943 million (49% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Hopefully, now it's clear why I'm so surprised that this hasn't been given more attention. While I realize I'm using \"straight line\" projections year-over-year, I'm kind of shocked that these assumptions and projections haven't been better analyzed until now. The numbers are obvious and simple, and coming straight from PLTR.</p>\n<p>Again, maybe I've got something wrong here, but to achieve $4 billion in revenue in 2025,<i>PLTR is going to have to grow by 50% every year</i>, from 2022 through 2025. That's an empirical necessity. Therefore, either PLTR is dead wrong and cannot achieve $4 billion in revenue, or perhaps they expect growth to be 50% year-over-year, or maybe that growth will be 40%, then 50%, then even higher. That is, they expect growth to accelerate.</p>\n<p>I don't believe that PLTR would knowingly publish expectations of $4 billion in 2025 without strong conviction. That is to say, it doesn't appear to be aspirational given their relatively cautious and conservative leadership. After all, theywaited 17 years to go public. Plus, with their load of government customers, it's not like they can fly by the seat of their pants. It is not in their DNA or the culture of the business from what I've seen.</p>\n<p>Peers and Price</p>\n<p>Here we take an interesting turn. Although I've written about PLTR many times, I haven't revealed something publicly before. Specifically, I have direct experience with a defense contractor. To be even more precise, I worked inside a defense contractor in a privileged position with access to an amazing crew of programmers, engineers, and technicians. That experience gave me a direct, hands-on, real-world view of how government contracting works, how the government embraces technology, and how the pieces and parts are all stitched together. I'll stop short at this point; I can't provide more details.</p>\n<p>What I can tell you is that my previous work experience has helped me take a long view on PLTR. To wit, I bought PLTR early and I haven't sold a single share. Furthermore, as you might know already, I've boughtPLTR LEAPS.</p>\n<p>Additionally, I've had several people reach out to me 1-to-1 about PLTR, including their experiences and their views. During one of these exchanges, a high ranking official and I came to agree on PLTR's peer group. I'm certainly not talking about true competitors here. I'm very specifically talking about reasonable<i>comparisons</i>for the sake of valuation. I'm talking about the general vibe of data analytics at enterprise scale, user behavior analytics, data frameworks, and so on, and so forth. Here's the list:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Snowflake (SNOW)</li>\n <li>Alteryx (AYX)</li>\n <li>Datadog (DDOG)</li>\n <li>Salesforce (CRM)</li>\n <li>Splunk (SPLK)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>It's not necessary to agree on all of these. Instead, these are merely a reasonable cluster of companies that have similar characteristics to PLTR, although I would offer that<i>none of them would be a true direct peer</i>. I do not see even a single company that is as rich and robust as PLTR, nevertheless, we need something of a \"peer group\" to move forward.</p>\n<p>Now, with this in mind, here's how we'll proceed. Since PLTR is so newly listed and it's relatively young on the public market, I will keep things simple. I'm very interested in earnings and profits, of course, but here I want to simply compare PLTR on the basis of sales. Therefore, I feel it's somewhat rational to compare PLTR using price-to-sales. Here's how PLTR stacks up.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77f9e680346dc75cdad7e6073ba1c40\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"487\">Being really simple here, PLTR gets just 30-35% the P/S of SNOW. However, it gets triple that of CRM. That's quite a spread. Then again, SNOW is expecting 120% revenue growth in 2021 and86% in 2022. Right now, on the high end, SNOW has the growth edge. I am unclear about how that growth plays out into 2023, 2024, and 2025. I suspect the law of large numbers will kick in, and growth will slow. We'll see. Meanwhile, CRM is a large yet fast-growing company, clocking in with an impressive24% year-over-year revenue gain.</p>\n<p>I believe that SNOW's high growth rate will fall, as I hinted at above. Perhaps down into the 50-60% range over the next few years. We'll see. And, I believe that CRM will likely maintain a 22-25% growth rate. However, per PLTR's projections of $4 billion, I see growth above 30%. In fact, I see compound annual growth at 45-50%.</p>\n<p>In a funny way, all that doesn't even matter much. That's because the story I see is that PLTR doesn't need to massively grow beyond what we're already seeing. If we merely assume that PLTR can basically hang on to the growth it's getting right now - without any slowdown or acceleration - we can do some fun back-of-the-napkin math. The P/S ratios give us an indication that PLTR is trading at a price that is about right given its peers at this point in time. I'm not interested in SNOW vs. PLTR, or CRM vs. PLTR. I'm merely pointing out that PLTR's P/S is relatively rational given its growth. We can pivot a bit now.</p>\n<p>Here's another picture in my mind. If you take CRM and AYX, for example, both of which have a longer history than SNOW or PLTR, you can see that growing revenues translate to strongly growing stock prices. Furthermore, and more importantly, price growth roughly stays around revenue growth. Clearly, it's not perfect, but it sure looks highly correlated to me; 400% growth in AYX, and 150% growth in CRM. Timing matters here, of course, but the general trends here are telling.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20e55c201426815f58f411103f705b88\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\">This makes me feel comfortable making some broad generalizations. I'm going to give year-by-year price ranges for PLTR given 30-50% growth rates. This is supported by what I've seen in PLTR's peer group, whereby P/S makes sense given growth rates, and the revenue growth vs. share price growth seems to mirror each other fairly well. I'm not trying to be exactly right here. I'm looking for potentiality, given publicly available information.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Today = $24</li>\n <li>2022 = $31 (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $41 (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $52 (30% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $69 (30% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Now, let's juice the growth to 40%.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Today = $24</li>\n <li>2022 = $34 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $47 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $66 (40% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $92 (40% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I still don't think that's accurate per my discussion up above. To achieve $4 billion in revenue, PLTR needs to hit about 50% growth every year. I'm going \"straight line\" again, with no assumptions about increasing or decreasing growth along the way. Again, I'm keeping this simple and easy. Here's how the price looks at that level of growth:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Today = $24</li>\n <li>2022 = $36 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2023 = $54 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2024 = $81 (50% growth)</li>\n <li>2025 = $122 (50% growth)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Perspective Is Everything</b></p>\n<p>Clearly, it's possible to be happy or sad about PLTR's price depending on when you bought. It would be understandable to be frustrated with PLTR if you bought around in the $35-45 range. On the other hand, if you bought down around $10-15, then you're probably feeling just fine. This isn't just how it works with PLTR, of course. Nevertheless, it's a healthy reminder.</p>\n<p>In the past, I've said I believe that PLTR will hit $75 by 2023. Even my relatively aggressive numbers above with 50% growth do not hit $75 in 2023, and in fact, I'm seeing $54 in 2023. However, here's the critical point. I still believe that PLTR is likely to hit $70-75 in 2023. I don't expect it to hold that price for long, but I do think because it's a growth company and because news and contacts are \"lumpy\" that we'll see spikes into the $70-75 range. Yet, since I don't trade, I'm fine sticking with my $50-55 normalized target. After all, I'm still doubling my money from this point. And it'll actually be about 5x my original investment in 2023 and 8-10x by 2025. I'm looking ahead about 3-4 years, and I'm seeing a 10-bagger for myself, given my cost basis. For most investors, PLTR appears to be an easy hold, and in fact, I think at $22-25, PLTR is a rational buy right now. I'd be far less interested in buying if the price spiked to $35 or above unless I was trading short-term options.</p>\n<p>And finally, what I'm seeing indicates that<i>PLTR is sandbagging on growth</i>, otherwise, its $4 billion in 2023 would have been revised downward. Therefore, given that large revenue target, I think it's safe to assume that PLTR actually must expect 45-50% growth, not the lower projection of 30%+ revenue growth as they have indicated in theQ4 2020andQ1 2021Earnings Call presentations. In short, I place my bets on more growth, not less. If that's true, the price will easily hold. Or, more likely, the price moves upward more aggressively over the coming years.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433292-palantir-sandbagging-growth-projections><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's price action this year.\nSecond, I examine PLTR's growth projections.\nThird, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group.\nLastly, I give my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433292-palantir-sandbagging-growth-projections\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433292-palantir-sandbagging-growth-projections","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1133174841","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's price action this year.\nSecond, I examine PLTR's growth projections.\nThird, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group.\nLastly, I give my thoughts on price projections out through 2025.\n\nFirst, I look at Palantir's(NYSE:PLTR)price action this year. I provide some quick thoughts on what I've seen. Second, I look into PLTR's growth projections. I believe the aggression is hidden and I reveal why I feel that way. Third, I provide an overview of price-to-sales in PLTR's peer group, and what that means going forward, especially in light of revenue growth into 2025. Lastly, I revisit the topic of price but also price projections for investors.\nRollercoaster\nHere's what's happened thus far in 2021.\nThe summary is simple. We are back where we started in January. If you bought and then closed your eyes, you would have gone absolutely nowhere. And, if your eyes were wide open, you would have experienced rather significant volatility, bouncing up against $39 but also muddling through $18. It goes without saying that PLTR has moved 50% top to bottom. But, importantly, we are back where we started.\nNow, here's where it gets interesting, because just putting money into the NASDAQ (QQQ) would give you superior returns with far less stomach-churning volatility. I'm not concerned with owning QQQ. I'm more than happy to own PLTR because, as I'll show later, it's likely to 5x my investment from this point in time. In any case, take a look at the relative calm of QQQ.\nHere I want to add another layer of paint. We started with PLTR itself, then added QQQ. What happens when we go back in time to PLTR's direct listing?\nThis is the picture that matters most to me. Here's what this means in simple terms, which is what works best in my mind. If you bought early, nothing really happened for a few weeks but then PLTR really took off. Therefore, early investors -like me- took the risk and have benefitted greatly despite all volatility after the directly public offering. With a long view, volatility is not a threat or a \"risk\", but instead, it's an opportunity to buy low.\nIn any case, if you started buying in 2021, then you're slightly behind versus the market but your investment certainly isn't trash. Furthermore, if you literally bought in the early part of 2021, and you held, then nothing bad has occurred. You are up. Again, volatility shakes out the weak hands. Long term, volatility is just noise - the price gets more and more smooth, year by year.\nHere's the insight. Buying and holding PLTR has worked out fine, even spectacularly, unless you bought during the big spikes in January, February, and March. Of course, if you traded against PLTR by shorting and buying puts during those times, you did fine. That's not my game, but I can see why it appeals to traders.\nNevertheless, here's the key: For long-term buy-and-hold investors, PLTR is moving along just fine. Perhaps it's not winning like crazy in terms of price, but it's not exactly losing either. Our horizon is long and strong.\nThere Is a Disturbance in the Force\nI'm rather surprised that there hasn't been more focus on PLTR's big picture projections. Specifically, I am talking about this:\nSource:PLTR Q4 Business Update Presentation\nSee the numbers there?Revenue of $4 billion or more in 2025.\nWe also know that PLTR grew Q1 2021 revenue by49% year-over-year, generating $341 million across government and commercial segments. That's above the 45% revenue growth previously projected. That's a run rate of $800 million for 2021. And, for Q2 2021, revenue growth is expected to be 43%, which translates to $360 million.\nThose numbers for 2021 are fine and dandy and useful to hear. However, what I like more is that PLTR expects 30% growth in 2021 and the next four years. Yes, there's an implication of growth slowing in H2 of 2021, I see that too. However, we can run some pretty simple calculus with these numbers.\nFirst, we can start with the $800 million projection for 2021, check it against the 30% growth expectations. Here's how it lines up.\n\n2021 = $800 million\n2022 = $1,040 million (30% growth)\n2023 = $1,350 million (30% growth)\n2024 = $1,760 million (30% growth)\n2025 = $2,300 million (30% growth)\n\nIn other words, when we start with $800 million for 2021, it's pretty obvious that the 30% growth doesn't cut it. We cannot reach $4 billion by 2025 with \"only\" 30% growth. PLTR is perhapssandbaggingto keep expectations lower. It's hard to know for sure. It could also be that they expect faster growth in 2022 through 2025. Let's run these numbers again with 40% growth.\n\n2021 = $800 million\n2022 = $1,120 million (40% growth)\n2023 = $1,570 million (40% growth)\n2024 = $2,195 million (40% growth)\n2025 = $3,070 million (40% growth)\n\nOnce again, even with 40% year-over-year growth, we do not reach the $4 billion projected for 2025. Now, here's the first thing I want to point out about this oddity. My numbers might be wrong. My math might be too simple. I understand that possibility, but what this tells me is that PLTR has a different view of growth than my \"straight line\" projections. They are predators, but they are cautious too.\nWhat happens if we go a little crazy and use 49%, which is what PLTR achieved in Q1 2021. That's nearly 50% growth, of course. Here's how it looks using the same approach I've been using above.\n\n2021 = $800 million\n2022 = $1,200 million (49% growth)\n2023 = $1,776 million (49% growth)\n2024 = $2,246 million (49% growth)\n2025 = $3,943 million (49% growth)\n\nHopefully, now it's clear why I'm so surprised that this hasn't been given more attention. While I realize I'm using \"straight line\" projections year-over-year, I'm kind of shocked that these assumptions and projections haven't been better analyzed until now. The numbers are obvious and simple, and coming straight from PLTR.\nAgain, maybe I've got something wrong here, but to achieve $4 billion in revenue in 2025,PLTR is going to have to grow by 50% every year, from 2022 through 2025. That's an empirical necessity. Therefore, either PLTR is dead wrong and cannot achieve $4 billion in revenue, or perhaps they expect growth to be 50% year-over-year, or maybe that growth will be 40%, then 50%, then even higher. That is, they expect growth to accelerate.\nI don't believe that PLTR would knowingly publish expectations of $4 billion in 2025 without strong conviction. That is to say, it doesn't appear to be aspirational given their relatively cautious and conservative leadership. After all, theywaited 17 years to go public. Plus, with their load of government customers, it's not like they can fly by the seat of their pants. It is not in their DNA or the culture of the business from what I've seen.\nPeers and Price\nHere we take an interesting turn. Although I've written about PLTR many times, I haven't revealed something publicly before. Specifically, I have direct experience with a defense contractor. To be even more precise, I worked inside a defense contractor in a privileged position with access to an amazing crew of programmers, engineers, and technicians. That experience gave me a direct, hands-on, real-world view of how government contracting works, how the government embraces technology, and how the pieces and parts are all stitched together. I'll stop short at this point; I can't provide more details.\nWhat I can tell you is that my previous work experience has helped me take a long view on PLTR. To wit, I bought PLTR early and I haven't sold a single share. Furthermore, as you might know already, I've boughtPLTR LEAPS.\nAdditionally, I've had several people reach out to me 1-to-1 about PLTR, including their experiences and their views. During one of these exchanges, a high ranking official and I came to agree on PLTR's peer group. I'm certainly not talking about true competitors here. I'm very specifically talking about reasonablecomparisonsfor the sake of valuation. I'm talking about the general vibe of data analytics at enterprise scale, user behavior analytics, data frameworks, and so on, and so forth. Here's the list:\n\nSnowflake (SNOW)\nAlteryx (AYX)\nDatadog (DDOG)\nSalesforce (CRM)\nSplunk (SPLK)\n\nIt's not necessary to agree on all of these. Instead, these are merely a reasonable cluster of companies that have similar characteristics to PLTR, although I would offer thatnone of them would be a true direct peer. I do not see even a single company that is as rich and robust as PLTR, nevertheless, we need something of a \"peer group\" to move forward.\nNow, with this in mind, here's how we'll proceed. Since PLTR is so newly listed and it's relatively young on the public market, I will keep things simple. I'm very interested in earnings and profits, of course, but here I want to simply compare PLTR on the basis of sales. Therefore, I feel it's somewhat rational to compare PLTR using price-to-sales. Here's how PLTR stacks up.\nBeing really simple here, PLTR gets just 30-35% the P/S of SNOW. However, it gets triple that of CRM. That's quite a spread. Then again, SNOW is expecting 120% revenue growth in 2021 and86% in 2022. Right now, on the high end, SNOW has the growth edge. I am unclear about how that growth plays out into 2023, 2024, and 2025. I suspect the law of large numbers will kick in, and growth will slow. We'll see. Meanwhile, CRM is a large yet fast-growing company, clocking in with an impressive24% year-over-year revenue gain.\nI believe that SNOW's high growth rate will fall, as I hinted at above. Perhaps down into the 50-60% range over the next few years. We'll see. And, I believe that CRM will likely maintain a 22-25% growth rate. However, per PLTR's projections of $4 billion, I see growth above 30%. In fact, I see compound annual growth at 45-50%.\nIn a funny way, all that doesn't even matter much. That's because the story I see is that PLTR doesn't need to massively grow beyond what we're already seeing. If we merely assume that PLTR can basically hang on to the growth it's getting right now - without any slowdown or acceleration - we can do some fun back-of-the-napkin math. The P/S ratios give us an indication that PLTR is trading at a price that is about right given its peers at this point in time. I'm not interested in SNOW vs. PLTR, or CRM vs. PLTR. I'm merely pointing out that PLTR's P/S is relatively rational given its growth. We can pivot a bit now.\nHere's another picture in my mind. If you take CRM and AYX, for example, both of which have a longer history than SNOW or PLTR, you can see that growing revenues translate to strongly growing stock prices. Furthermore, and more importantly, price growth roughly stays around revenue growth. Clearly, it's not perfect, but it sure looks highly correlated to me; 400% growth in AYX, and 150% growth in CRM. Timing matters here, of course, but the general trends here are telling.\nThis makes me feel comfortable making some broad generalizations. I'm going to give year-by-year price ranges for PLTR given 30-50% growth rates. This is supported by what I've seen in PLTR's peer group, whereby P/S makes sense given growth rates, and the revenue growth vs. share price growth seems to mirror each other fairly well. I'm not trying to be exactly right here. I'm looking for potentiality, given publicly available information.\n\nToday = $24\n2022 = $31 (30% growth)\n2023 = $41 (30% growth)\n2024 = $52 (30% growth)\n2025 = $69 (30% growth)\n\nNow, let's juice the growth to 40%.\n\nToday = $24\n2022 = $34 (40% growth)\n2023 = $47 (40% growth)\n2024 = $66 (40% growth)\n2025 = $92 (40% growth)\n\nI still don't think that's accurate per my discussion up above. To achieve $4 billion in revenue, PLTR needs to hit about 50% growth every year. I'm going \"straight line\" again, with no assumptions about increasing or decreasing growth along the way. Again, I'm keeping this simple and easy. Here's how the price looks at that level of growth:\n\nToday = $24\n2022 = $36 (50% growth)\n2023 = $54 (50% growth)\n2024 = $81 (50% growth)\n2025 = $122 (50% growth)\n\nPerspective Is Everything\nClearly, it's possible to be happy or sad about PLTR's price depending on when you bought. It would be understandable to be frustrated with PLTR if you bought around in the $35-45 range. On the other hand, if you bought down around $10-15, then you're probably feeling just fine. This isn't just how it works with PLTR, of course. Nevertheless, it's a healthy reminder.\nIn the past, I've said I believe that PLTR will hit $75 by 2023. Even my relatively aggressive numbers above with 50% growth do not hit $75 in 2023, and in fact, I'm seeing $54 in 2023. However, here's the critical point. I still believe that PLTR is likely to hit $70-75 in 2023. I don't expect it to hold that price for long, but I do think because it's a growth company and because news and contacts are \"lumpy\" that we'll see spikes into the $70-75 range. Yet, since I don't trade, I'm fine sticking with my $50-55 normalized target. After all, I'm still doubling my money from this point. And it'll actually be about 5x my original investment in 2023 and 8-10x by 2025. I'm looking ahead about 3-4 years, and I'm seeing a 10-bagger for myself, given my cost basis. For most investors, PLTR appears to be an easy hold, and in fact, I think at $22-25, PLTR is a rational buy right now. I'd be far less interested in buying if the price spiked to $35 or above unless I was trading short-term options.\nAnd finally, what I'm seeing indicates thatPLTR is sandbagging on growth, otherwise, its $4 billion in 2023 would have been revised downward. Therefore, given that large revenue target, I think it's safe to assume that PLTR actually must expect 45-50% growth, not the lower projection of 30%+ revenue growth as they have indicated in theQ4 2020andQ1 2021Earnings Call presentations. In short, I place my bets on more growth, not less. If that's true, the price will easily hold. Or, more likely, the price moves upward more aggressively over the coming years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}