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2023-02-07

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小心熊市陷阱！大摩、小摩双双警告：美联储不会轻易转向

2021-09-13

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2021-09-13

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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>标普500指数已经自去年10月的低点上涨15%</p><p>策略师警告称，不利因素并未消退，<b>降息时间可能晚于预期。</b>他们援引强劲的劳动力市场和强势美元称，这些都是经济仍能承受更紧缩条件的迹象，美联储仍可能维持高利率。该报告称：</p><blockquote>“股票投资者真的没有理由对降息感到兴奋。”</blockquote><p>此外，策略师表示，<b>上周五标普500指数每股收益增长的前瞻性指标转为负数，突显出盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆</b>。在过去的23年里，每股收益负增长只发生过四次，而且每年都伴随着市场“显著”下跌。策略师补充道：</p><blockquote>“让这一分析更有说服力的是，从历史上看，股票的大部分价格下跌是在远期每股收益增长变为负数之后发生的。换句话说，在我们看来，这种盈利衰退并未被定价，”</blockquote><p>摩根士丹利几个月来一直警告称，投资者的盈利预期仍然过高，市场并未完全消化盈利衰退的痛苦，这可能导致2008年经济低迷的重现。该行首席股票策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，<b>今年上半年股市可能下跌多达20%</b>，他警告投资者要为更多的近期波动做好准备。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a></b>策略师Marko Kolanovic周一也重申，投资者应该无视上周美联储利率决议引发的股市反弹，因为美国经济的反通胀（disinflation）过程可能只是“暂时的”。</p><p><i>注：通货膨胀速度下降，此时经济仍然处于通货膨胀的状态。</i></p><p>Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中写道，他认为今年前三个月可能标志着“市场的拐点”，第二和第三季度可能进入颠簸期，随后到年底基本面将再次恶化，因为美联储可能会在一段时间内保持高利率。</p><p>以Kolanovic为首的策略师团队写道，“我们建议利用当前的市场反弹来减少风险敞口”。他指出，此前风险情绪导致投资者重新涌入加密货币相关股票和Meme股票等投机资产。</p><p>强劲的劳动力市场可能给“软着陆”的情景浇了一盆冷水，即美联储可能难以在经济持续增长的同时抑制通胀。根据Kolanovic的说法，如果“软着陆”无法实现，将导致<b>今年的股市赢家出现均值回归</b>。</p><p>在上周五非农就业人数超预期激增打击市场降息预期后，Kolanovic现在<b>预计美联储3月和5月将各加息25个基点，然后长时间将利率维持在高水平。</b>即使整体通胀率有望下降，但Kolanovic预计<b>工资上涨将对企业利润率构成压力，这或引发更多裁员活动。</b>他补充道：</p><blockquote>“因此，在这种情况下，通胀下滑不会有什么值得庆祝的，因为利率处于更加限制性的状态，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，除非风险事件迫使利率重置。”</blockquote><p>作为华尔街最大的乐观主义者之一，Kolanovic在2022年的大部分预测都落空。此后，由于今年经济前景疲软，他改变了观点，在去年12月中旬削减了股票配置。上个月，他表示经济正走向低迷。由于担心经济衰退和美联储过度紧缩，该银行再次建议减持股票。</p><p>不过，Kolanovic在去年10月份的低迷时期敦促投资者逢低买入中国股票，这一呼吁被证明是正确的，MSCI中国指数自去年10月初以来已上涨超过26%。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。摩根士丹利周一在一份报告中表示，投资者不应相信他们正在见证新一轮牛市的开始，盈利衰退仍将是美股今年取得任何收益的主要障碍。“虽然上周的事件并没有导致最近的熊市涨势立即逆转，但我们也不认为这表明新一轮牛市已经于去年10月开启。”标普500指数已经自去年10月的低点上涨15%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c732cf736e36e00309314a57f283d159","relate_stocks":{"LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2309327008","content_text":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。摩根士丹利周一在一份报告中表示，投资者不应相信他们正在见证新一轮牛市的开始，盈利衰退仍将是美股今年取得任何收益的主要障碍。“虽然上周的事件并没有导致最近的熊市涨势立即逆转，但我们也不认为这表明新一轮牛市已经于去年10月开启。”标普500指数已经自去年10月的低点上涨15%策略师警告称，不利因素并未消退，降息时间可能晚于预期。他们援引强劲的劳动力市场和强势美元称，这些都是经济仍能承受更紧缩条件的迹象，美联储仍可能维持高利率。该报告称：“股票投资者真的没有理由对降息感到兴奋。”此外，策略师表示，上周五标普500指数每股收益增长的前瞻性指标转为负数，突显出盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆。在过去的23年里，每股收益负增长只发生过四次，而且每年都伴随着市场“显著”下跌。策略师补充道：“让这一分析更有说服力的是，从历史上看，股票的大部分价格下跌是在远期每股收益增长变为负数之后发生的。换句话说，在我们看来，这种盈利衰退并未被定价，”摩根士丹利几个月来一直警告称，投资者的盈利预期仍然过高，市场并未完全消化盈利衰退的痛苦，这可能导致2008年经济低迷的重现。该行首席股票策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，今年上半年股市可能下跌多达20%，他警告投资者要为更多的近期波动做好准备。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic周一也重申，投资者应该无视上周美联储利率决议引发的股市反弹，因为美国经济的反通胀（disinflation）过程可能只是“暂时的”。注：通货膨胀速度下降，此时经济仍然处于通货膨胀的状态。Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中写道，他认为今年前三个月可能标志着“市场的拐点”，第二和第三季度可能进入颠簸期，随后到年底基本面将再次恶化，因为美联储可能会在一段时间内保持高利率。以Kolanovic为首的策略师团队写道，“我们建议利用当前的市场反弹来减少风险敞口”。他指出，此前风险情绪导致投资者重新涌入加密货币相关股票和Meme股票等投机资产。强劲的劳动力市场可能给“软着陆”的情景浇了一盆冷水，即美联储可能难以在经济持续增长的同时抑制通胀。根据Kolanovic的说法，如果“软着陆”无法实现，将导致今年的股市赢家出现均值回归。在上周五非农就业人数超预期激增打击市场降息预期后，Kolanovic现在预计美联储3月和5月将各加息25个基点，然后长时间将利率维持在高水平。即使整体通胀率有望下降，但Kolanovic预计工资上涨将对企业利润率构成压力，这或引发更多裁员活动。他补充道：“因此，在这种情况下，通胀下滑不会有什么值得庆祝的，因为利率处于更加限制性的状态，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，除非风险事件迫使利率重置。”作为华尔街最大的乐观主义者之一，Kolanovic在2022年的大部分预测都落空。此后，由于今年经济前景疲软，他改变了观点，在去年12月中旬削减了股票配置。上个月，他表示经济正走向低迷。由于担心经济衰退和美联储过度紧缩，该银行再次建议减持股票。不过，Kolanovic在去年10月份的低迷时期敦促投资者逢低买入中国股票，这一呼吁被证明是正确的，MSCI中国指数自去年10月初以来已上涨超过26%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888269769,"gmtCreate":1631499792151,"gmtModify":1676530558752,"author":{"id":"3577356484434070","authorId":"3577356484434070","name":"liying富婆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c785c609296af79f85e020bfc42aa6de","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577356484434070","authorIdStr":"3577356484434070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xiaomi 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