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liying富婆
2023-02-07
Yes
Beware of bear market traps! Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Stanley warned: The Federal Reserve will not easily turn its back.
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2021-09-13
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2021-09-13
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14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Beware of bear market traps! Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Stanley warned: The Federal Reserve will not easily turn its back.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309327008","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley points out that a significant sign has emerged that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market! A prominent JPMorgan Chase bull said the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course and suggested continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>A report on Monday stated that investors should not believe they are witnessing the start of a new bull market, and that declining earnings will remain a major obstacle to any gains for U.S. stocks this year.</p><p>\"While last week's events did not immediately reverse the recent bear market rally, we do not believe it indicates that a new bull market began last October.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 has risen 15% since its low last October.</p><p>Strategists warn that the headwinds have not subsided.<b>The interest rate cut may be later than expected.</b>They cited a strong labor market and a strong dollar as signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates. The report states:</p><p>\"Stock investors really have no reason to be excited about interest rate cuts,\" the strategist added.<b>Last Friday, the S&P 500's forecast for earnings per share growth turned negative, highlighting a significant omen that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market.</b>。 In the past 23 years, negative earnings per share have only occurred four times, and each year has been accompanied by a \"significant\" market decline. The strategist added:</p><p>“What makes this analysis even more compelling is that historically, most stock price declines have occurred after forward earnings per share growth turned negative. In other words, in our view, this earnings recession has not been priced in,” Morgan Stanley said, warning for months that investors’ earnings expectations remain too high and the market has not fully digested the pain of the earnings recession, which could lead to a repeat of the 2008 economic downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>The stock market may fall by as much as 20% in the first half of this year</b>He warned investors to prepare for more recent volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated on Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rebound triggered by last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, as the disinflation process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary.\"</p><p><i>Note: When the rate of inflation decreases, the economy is still in a state of inflation.</i></p><p>In a report to clients, Kolanovic wrote that he believes the first three months of this year could mark a “turning point for the market,” with the second and third quarters likely to enter a period of turbulence, followed by a deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year as the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>The team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote, \"We recommend taking advantage of the current market rebound to reduce risk exposure.\" He pointed out that previous risk sentiment had led investors to return to speculative assets such as cryptocurrency-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on the \"soft landing\" scenario, where the Federal Reserve may struggle to curb inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" cannot be achieved, it will lead to<b>This year's stock market winners show mean regression</b>。</p><p>Following Friday's better-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls, which dampened market expectations of an interest rate cut, Kolanovic now...<b>The Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 25 basis points each in March and May, and then maintain interest rates at high levels for an extended period.</b>Even though overall inflation is expected to decline, Kolanovic predicts<b>Rising wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>“Therefore, in this situation, there is nothing to celebrate about declining inflation, because interest rates are in a more restrictive state, and the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course unless risk events force a rate reset.” As one of Wall Street’s biggest optimists, Kolanovic missed most of his predictions for 2022. He then changed his mind due to the weak economic outlook this year, cutting his stock allocation in mid-December last year. Last month, he said the economy was heading for a downturn. The bank again recommended reducing its stock holdings due to concerns about an economic recession and excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, Kolanovic's call to buy Chinese stocks on dips during the downturn in October last year has proven correct, with the MSCI China Index rising by more than 26% since the beginning of October.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware of bear market traps! Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Stanley warned: The Federal Reserve will not easily turn its back.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware of bear market traps! Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Stanley warned: The Federal Reserve will not easily turn its back.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-07 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley points out that a significant sign has emerged that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market! A prominent JPMorgan Chase bull said the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course and suggested continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>A report on Monday stated that investors should not believe they are witnessing the start of a new bull market, and that declining earnings will remain a major obstacle to any gains for U.S. stocks this year.</p><p>\"While last week's events did not immediately reverse the recent bear market rally, we do not believe it indicates that a new bull market began last October.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 has risen 15% since its low last October.</p><p>Strategists warn that the headwinds have not subsided.<b>The interest rate cut may be later than expected.</b>They cited a strong labor market and a strong dollar as signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates. The report states:</p><p>\"Stock investors really have no reason to be excited about interest rate cuts,\" the strategist added.<b>Last Friday, the S&P 500's forecast for earnings per share growth turned negative, highlighting a significant omen that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market.</b>。 In the past 23 years, negative earnings per share have only occurred four times, and each year has been accompanied by a \"significant\" market decline. The strategist added:</p><p>“What makes this analysis even more compelling is that historically, most stock price declines have occurred after forward earnings per share growth turned negative. In other words, in our view, this earnings recession has not been priced in,” Morgan Stanley said, warning for months that investors’ earnings expectations remain too high and the market has not fully digested the pain of the earnings recession, which could lead to a repeat of the 2008 economic downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>The stock market may fall by as much as 20% in the first half of this year</b>He warned investors to prepare for more recent volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated on Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rebound triggered by last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, as the disinflation process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary.\"</p><p><i>Note: When the rate of inflation decreases, the economy is still in a state of inflation.</i></p><p>In a report to clients, Kolanovic wrote that he believes the first three months of this year could mark a “turning point for the market,” with the second and third quarters likely to enter a period of turbulence, followed by a deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year as the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>The team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote, \"We recommend taking advantage of the current market rebound to reduce risk exposure.\" He pointed out that previous risk sentiment had led investors to return to speculative assets such as cryptocurrency-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on the \"soft landing\" scenario, where the Federal Reserve may struggle to curb inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" cannot be achieved, it will lead to<b>This year's stock market winners show mean regression</b>。</p><p>Following Friday's better-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls, which dampened market expectations of an interest rate cut, Kolanovic now...<b>The Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 25 basis points each in March and May, and then maintain interest rates at high levels for an extended period.</b>Even though overall inflation is expected to decline, Kolanovic predicts<b>Rising wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>“Therefore, in this situation, there is nothing to celebrate about declining inflation, because interest rates are in a more restrictive state, and the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course unless risk events force a rate reset.” As one of Wall Street’s biggest optimists, Kolanovic missed most of his predictions for 2022. He then changed his mind due to the weak economic outlook this year, cutting his stock allocation in mid-December last year. Last month, he said the economy was heading for a downturn. The bank again recommended reducing its stock holdings due to concerns about an economic recession and excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, Kolanovic's call to buy Chinese stocks on dips during the downturn in October last year has proven correct, with the MSCI China Index rising by more than 26% since the beginning of October.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c732cf736e36e00309314a57f283d159","relate_stocks":{"LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - 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US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2309327008","content_text":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。摩根士丹利周一在一份报告中表示，投资者不应相信他们正在见证新一轮牛市的开始，盈利衰退仍将是美股今年取得任何收益的主要障碍。“虽然上周的事件并没有导致最近的熊市涨势立即逆转，但我们也不认为这表明新一轮牛市已经于去年10月开启。”标普500指数已经自去年10月的低点上涨15%策略师警告称，不利因素并未消退，降息时间可能晚于预期。他们援引强劲的劳动力市场和强势美元称，这些都是经济仍能承受更紧缩条件的迹象，美联储仍可能维持高利率。该报告称：“股票投资者真的没有理由对降息感到兴奋。”此外，策略师表示，上周五标普500指数每股收益增长的前瞻性指标转为负数，突显出盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆。在过去的23年里，每股收益负增长只发生过四次，而且每年都伴随着市场“显著”下跌。策略师补充道：“让这一分析更有说服力的是，从历史上看，股票的大部分价格下跌是在远期每股收益增长变为负数之后发生的。换句话说，在我们看来，这种盈利衰退并未被定价，”摩根士丹利几个月来一直警告称，投资者的盈利预期仍然过高，市场并未完全消化盈利衰退的痛苦，这可能导致2008年经济低迷的重现。该行首席股票策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，今年上半年股市可能下跌多达20%，他警告投资者要为更多的近期波动做好准备。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic周一也重申，投资者应该无视上周美联储利率决议引发的股市反弹，因为美国经济的反通胀（disinflation）过程可能只是“暂时的”。注：通货膨胀速度下降，此时经济仍然处于通货膨胀的状态。Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中写道，他认为今年前三个月可能标志着“市场的拐点”，第二和第三季度可能进入颠簸期，随后到年底基本面将再次恶化，因为美联储可能会在一段时间内保持高利率。以Kolanovic为首的策略师团队写道，“我们建议利用当前的市场反弹来减少风险敞口”。他指出，此前风险情绪导致投资者重新涌入加密货币相关股票和Meme股票等投机资产。强劲的劳动力市场可能给“软着陆”的情景浇了一盆冷水，即美联储可能难以在经济持续增长的同时抑制通胀。根据Kolanovic的说法，如果“软着陆”无法实现，将导致今年的股市赢家出现均值回归。在上周五非农就业人数超预期激增打击市场降息预期后，Kolanovic现在预计美联储3月和5月将各加息25个基点，然后长时间将利率维持在高水平。即使整体通胀率有望下降，但Kolanovic预计工资上涨将对企业利润率构成压力，这或引发更多裁员活动。他补充道：“因此，在这种情况下，通胀下滑不会有什么值得庆祝的，因为利率处于更加限制性的状态，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，除非风险事件迫使利率重置。”作为华尔街最大的乐观主义者之一，Kolanovic在2022年的大部分预测都落空。此后，由于今年经济前景疲软，他改变了观点，在去年12月中旬削减了股票配置。上个月，他表示经济正走向低迷。由于担心经济衰退和美联储过度紧缩，该银行再次建议减持股票。不过，Kolanovic在去年10月份的低迷时期敦促投资者逢低买入中国股票，这一呼吁被证明是正确的，MSCI中国指数自去年10月初以来已上涨超过26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888269769,"gmtCreate":1631499792151,"gmtModify":1676530558752,"author":{"id":"3577356484434070","authorId":"3577356484434070","name":"liying富婆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c785c609296af79f85e020bfc42aa6de","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577356484434070","idStr":"3577356484434070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Xiaomi good","listText":"Xiaomi good","text":"Xiaomi good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9062e6b5318d6cffd28ea03177c1d41","width":"750","height":"1815"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888269769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888672563,"gmtCreate":1631496615652,"gmtModify":1676530557254,"author":{"id":"3577356484434070","authorId":"3577356484434070","name":"liying富婆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c785c609296af79f85e020bfc42aa6de","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577356484434070","idStr":"3577356484434070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good apple","listText":"good apple","text":"good apple","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e20759ea0fb05bc32cb943cd7be2799f","width":"750","height":"2179"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888672563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9955719522,"gmtCreate":1675754215067,"gmtModify":1675754219325,"author":{"id":"3577356484434070","authorId":"3577356484434070","name":"liying富婆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c785c609296af79f85e020bfc42aa6de","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577356484434070","idStr":"3577356484434070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955719522","repostId":"2309327008","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2309327008","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1675751925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2309327008?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-07 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Beware of bear market traps! Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Stanley warned: The Federal Reserve will not easily turn its back.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309327008","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley points out that a significant sign has emerged that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market! A prominent JPMorgan Chase bull said the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course and suggested continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>A report on Monday stated that investors should not believe they are witnessing the start of a new bull market, and that declining earnings will remain a major obstacle to any gains for U.S. stocks this year.</p><p>\"While last week's events did not immediately reverse the recent bear market rally, we do not believe it indicates that a new bull market began last October.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 has risen 15% since its low last October.</p><p>Strategists warn that the headwinds have not subsided.<b>The interest rate cut may be later than expected.</b>They cited a strong labor market and a strong dollar as signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates. The report states:</p><p>\"Stock investors really have no reason to be excited about interest rate cuts,\" the strategist added.<b>Last Friday, the S&P 500's forecast for earnings per share growth turned negative, highlighting a significant omen that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market.</b>。 In the past 23 years, negative earnings per share have only occurred four times, and each year has been accompanied by a \"significant\" market decline. The strategist added:</p><p>“What makes this analysis even more compelling is that historically, most stock price declines have occurred after forward earnings per share growth turned negative. In other words, in our view, this earnings recession has not been priced in,” Morgan Stanley said, warning for months that investors’ earnings expectations remain too high and the market has not fully digested the pain of the earnings recession, which could lead to a repeat of the 2008 economic downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>The stock market may fall by as much as 20% in the first half of this year</b>He warned investors to prepare for more recent volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated on Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rebound triggered by last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, as the disinflation process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary.\"</p><p><i>Note: When the rate of inflation decreases, the economy is still in a state of inflation.</i></p><p>In a report to clients, Kolanovic wrote that he believes the first three months of this year could mark a “turning point for the market,” with the second and third quarters likely to enter a period of turbulence, followed by a deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year as the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>The team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote, \"We recommend taking advantage of the current market rebound to reduce risk exposure.\" He pointed out that previous risk sentiment had led investors to return to speculative assets such as cryptocurrency-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on the \"soft landing\" scenario, where the Federal Reserve may struggle to curb inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" cannot be achieved, it will lead to<b>This year's stock market winners show mean regression</b>。</p><p>Following Friday's better-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls, which dampened market expectations of an interest rate cut, Kolanovic now...<b>The Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 25 basis points each in March and May, and then maintain interest rates at high levels for an extended period.</b>Even though overall inflation is expected to decline, Kolanovic predicts<b>Rising wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>“Therefore, in this situation, there is nothing to celebrate about declining inflation, because interest rates are in a more restrictive state, and the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course unless risk events force a rate reset.” As one of Wall Street’s biggest optimists, Kolanovic missed most of his predictions for 2022. He then changed his mind due to the weak economic outlook this year, cutting his stock allocation in mid-December last year. Last month, he said the economy was heading for a downturn. The bank again recommended reducing its stock holdings due to concerns about an economic recession and excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, Kolanovic's call to buy Chinese stocks on dips during the downturn in October last year has proven correct, with the MSCI China Index rising by more than 26% since the beginning of October.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware of bear market traps! Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Stanley warned: The Federal Reserve will not easily turn its back.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware of bear market traps! Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Stanley warned: The Federal Reserve will not easily turn its back.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-07 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley points out that a significant sign has emerged that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market! A prominent JPMorgan Chase bull said the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course and suggested continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>A report on Monday stated that investors should not believe they are witnessing the start of a new bull market, and that declining earnings will remain a major obstacle to any gains for U.S. stocks this year.</p><p>\"While last week's events did not immediately reverse the recent bear market rally, we do not believe it indicates that a new bull market began last October.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 has risen 15% since its low last October.</p><p>Strategists warn that the headwinds have not subsided.<b>The interest rate cut may be later than expected.</b>They cited a strong labor market and a strong dollar as signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates. The report states:</p><p>\"Stock investors really have no reason to be excited about interest rate cuts,\" the strategist added.<b>Last Friday, the S&P 500's forecast for earnings per share growth turned negative, highlighting a significant omen that an earnings recession is about to severely impact the stock market.</b>。 In the past 23 years, negative earnings per share have only occurred four times, and each year has been accompanied by a \"significant\" market decline. The strategist added:</p><p>“What makes this analysis even more compelling is that historically, most stock price declines have occurred after forward earnings per share growth turned negative. In other words, in our view, this earnings recession has not been priced in,” Morgan Stanley said, warning for months that investors’ earnings expectations remain too high and the market has not fully digested the pain of the earnings recession, which could lead to a repeat of the 2008 economic downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>The stock market may fall by as much as 20% in the first half of this year</b>He warned investors to prepare for more recent volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated on Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rebound triggered by last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, as the disinflation process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary.\"</p><p><i>Note: When the rate of inflation decreases, the economy is still in a state of inflation.</i></p><p>In a report to clients, Kolanovic wrote that he believes the first three months of this year could mark a “turning point for the market,” with the second and third quarters likely to enter a period of turbulence, followed by a deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year as the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>The team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote, \"We recommend taking advantage of the current market rebound to reduce risk exposure.\" He pointed out that previous risk sentiment had led investors to return to speculative assets such as cryptocurrency-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on the \"soft landing\" scenario, where the Federal Reserve may struggle to curb inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" cannot be achieved, it will lead to<b>This year's stock market winners show mean regression</b>。</p><p>Following Friday's better-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls, which dampened market expectations of an interest rate cut, Kolanovic now...<b>The Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 25 basis points each in March and May, and then maintain interest rates at high levels for an extended period.</b>Even though overall inflation is expected to decline, Kolanovic predicts<b>Rising wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>“Therefore, in this situation, there is nothing to celebrate about declining inflation, because interest rates are in a more restrictive state, and the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course unless risk events force a rate reset.” As one of Wall Street’s biggest optimists, Kolanovic missed most of his predictions for 2022. He then changed his mind due to the weak economic outlook this year, cutting his stock allocation in mid-December last year. Last month, he said the economy was heading for a downturn. The bank again recommended reducing its stock holdings due to concerns about an economic recession and excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, Kolanovic's call to buy Chinese stocks on dips during the downturn in October last year has proven correct, with the MSCI China Index rising by more than 26% since the beginning of October.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c732cf736e36e00309314a57f283d159","relate_stocks":{"LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - 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US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2309327008","content_text":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。摩根士丹利周一在一份报告中表示，投资者不应相信他们正在见证新一轮牛市的开始，盈利衰退仍将是美股今年取得任何收益的主要障碍。“虽然上周的事件并没有导致最近的熊市涨势立即逆转，但我们也不认为这表明新一轮牛市已经于去年10月开启。”标普500指数已经自去年10月的低点上涨15%策略师警告称，不利因素并未消退，降息时间可能晚于预期。他们援引强劲的劳动力市场和强势美元称，这些都是经济仍能承受更紧缩条件的迹象，美联储仍可能维持高利率。该报告称：“股票投资者真的没有理由对降息感到兴奋。”此外，策略师表示，上周五标普500指数每股收益增长的前瞻性指标转为负数，突显出盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆。在过去的23年里，每股收益负增长只发生过四次，而且每年都伴随着市场“显著”下跌。策略师补充道：“让这一分析更有说服力的是，从历史上看，股票的大部分价格下跌是在远期每股收益增长变为负数之后发生的。换句话说，在我们看来，这种盈利衰退并未被定价，”摩根士丹利几个月来一直警告称，投资者的盈利预期仍然过高，市场并未完全消化盈利衰退的痛苦，这可能导致2008年经济低迷的重现。该行首席股票策略师迈克·威尔逊（Mike Wilson）表示，今年上半年股市可能下跌多达20%，他警告投资者要为更多的近期波动做好准备。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic周一也重申，投资者应该无视上周美联储利率决议引发的股市反弹，因为美国经济的反通胀（disinflation）过程可能只是“暂时的”。注：通货膨胀速度下降，此时经济仍然处于通货膨胀的状态。Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中写道，他认为今年前三个月可能标志着“市场的拐点”，第二和第三季度可能进入颠簸期，随后到年底基本面将再次恶化，因为美联储可能会在一段时间内保持高利率。以Kolanovic为首的策略师团队写道，“我们建议利用当前的市场反弹来减少风险敞口”。他指出，此前风险情绪导致投资者重新涌入加密货币相关股票和Meme股票等投机资产。强劲的劳动力市场可能给“软着陆”的情景浇了一盆冷水，即美联储可能难以在经济持续增长的同时抑制通胀。根据Kolanovic的说法，如果“软着陆”无法实现，将导致今年的股市赢家出现均值回归。在上周五非农就业人数超预期激增打击市场降息预期后，Kolanovic现在预计美联储3月和5月将各加息25个基点，然后长时间将利率维持在高水平。即使整体通胀率有望下降，但Kolanovic预计工资上涨将对企业利润率构成压力，这或引发更多裁员活动。他补充道：“因此，在这种情况下，通胀下滑不会有什么值得庆祝的，因为利率处于更加限制性的状态，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，除非风险事件迫使利率重置。”作为华尔街最大的乐观主义者之一，Kolanovic在2022年的大部分预测都落空。此后，由于今年经济前景疲软，他改变了观点，在去年12月中旬削减了股票配置。上个月，他表示经济正走向低迷。由于担心经济衰退和美联储过度紧缩，该银行再次建议减持股票。不过，Kolanovic在去年10月份的低迷时期敦促投资者逢低买入中国股票，这一呼吁被证明是正确的，MSCI中国指数自去年10月初以来已上涨超过26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888269769,"gmtCreate":1631499792151,"gmtModify":1676530558752,"author":{"id":"3577356484434070","authorId":"3577356484434070","name":"liying富婆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c785c609296af79f85e020bfc42aa6de","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577356484434070","idStr":"3577356484434070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Xiaomi good","listText":"Xiaomi good","text":"Xiaomi good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9062e6b5318d6cffd28ea03177c1d41","width":"750","height":"1815"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888269769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888672563,"gmtCreate":1631496615652,"gmtModify":1676530557254,"author":{"id":"3577356484434070","authorId":"3577356484434070","name":"liying富婆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c785c609296af79f85e020bfc42aa6de","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577356484434070","idStr":"3577356484434070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good apple","listText":"good apple","text":"good apple","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e20759ea0fb05bc32cb943cd7be2799f","width":"750","height":"2179"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888672563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
