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Smile31

Smile31

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2022-06-24

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Last night and this morning | US stocks staged a dramatic rebound! Chinese concept stocks stood out, with XPeng Automotive rising nearly 8%.

2022-06-20

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2022-05-19

$SINGTEL 10(Z77.SI)$..

2022-05-01

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2022-03-09

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2022-03-05

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Analysis | With strong non-farm payrolls, does the Federal Reserve need to ramp up its efforts to combat inflation?

2022-01-27

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2022-06-30

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Last Night and This Morning | S&P 500 Rebound Fails, Hovering in Bear Market, Poised for Biggest Six-Month Drop Since 1970

2022-06-27

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This Week's Preview | Powell Joins Hands with Key US Inflation Data PCE

2022-06-26

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Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the US stock market bear market

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👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp; 👍","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345451693904160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252066392895768,"gmtCreate":1702573516766,"gmtModify":1702573520803,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48e59378c27d67b08fd3f833cece68fb","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252066392895768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071080048,"gmtCreate":1657428902385,"gmtModify":1676536007100,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071080048","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073694117,"gmtCreate":1657331975039,"gmtModify":1676535992757,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073694117","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079771648,"gmtCreate":1657244781084,"gmtModify":1676535978270,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079771648","repostId":"1154580307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079135963,"gmtCreate":1657156686552,"gmtModify":1676535960636,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079135963","repostId":"1177613805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177613805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657148501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177613805?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177613805","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials believed that the July meeting might be suitable for a rate hike of 75 or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation. There is currently a risk of entrenched high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will come at a higher cost. Meeting minutes released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time, showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that rate hike could slow economic growth, but believed that the rate hike might need to last longer to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the inflation outlook has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow the economy.</p><p>The minutes also confirmed that the Fed will discuss at its meeting this month whether to continue its 75 basis point rate hike or slow it to 50 basis points.</p><p>Media commentators say that, given recent data showing a slightly slower economic growth, some investors believe the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated. This drove US stocks higher during the session, and the three major indices, which had turned lower more than once during the session, completely reversed their downward trend.</p><p>The July meeting will consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points.</p><p>The Federal Reserve decided to raise rate hike by 75 basis points at its June meeting, marking the largest rate hike in over 27 years. The meeting minutes show that, given the extremely tight labor market supply, inflation far exceeding the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) inflation target of 2%, and the fact that the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed with the June rate hike of 75 basis points, with only one voting against it because they supported the rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, participating officials continued to anticipate future rate hike, with the minutes specifically mentioning:</p><p>The participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insights note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>）<b>May be suitable for 75 basis points or 50 basis points in rate hike</b>。<b>Participants</b>There is consensus that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance in (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognizing that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may become even more restrictive.</b>(even more restrictive). Inflation will take time to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown.</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers expected it would take time to reduce inflation, and that suppressing inflation would come at the cost of a potential slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention efforts, and other factors constraining the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also concluded that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for a period of time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There is a deep-seated risk of high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected.</p><p>The minutes stated that the Federal Reserve policymakers at the meeting believed that, given that inflation was far above the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, the Federal Reserve is in a better position to tighten its restrictive measures once inflation is higher than expected.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>One of the major risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation could become entrenched.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, is crucial for restoring price stability. Regarding inflation, Federal Reserve officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation remains too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests that inflationary pressures show no signs of abating.</b>。 A number of people regard this as<b>This reinforced the view that inflation would last longer than they had previously expected.</b>。 There are upside risks to inflation, such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will come at a higher cost.</p><p>In assessing the economy, the Federal Reserve officials present emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor developments and changes related to inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed the risks to inflation were upside and mentioned a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants agreed that economic growth in the coming years is highly uncertain.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there were downside risks to the economic growth outlook, including that further tightening of financial conditions would have a greater negative impact on economic activity than expected, and that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention efforts on economic growth would exceed expectations.</p><p>Regarding inflation expectations, the minutes show that</p><p>While long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants were concerned that long-term inflation expectations could begin to rise to levels below the 2% target. These participants pointed out that bringing inflation back to the FOMC target would be more costly if inflation expectations got out of control.</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes in midday trading, U.S. stocks initially fell before quickly rebounding, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising during the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upwards, breaking below 107.00 in the short term before quickly rebounding to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks in early trading at near 107.30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued its upward trend, rising above 2.90% after the minutes were released, and briefly broke through 2.92%, setting a new daily high. The intraday gain exceeded 10 basis points, rebounding about 17 basis points from the more than one-month low hit by European stocks during Wednesday's intraday test of 2.75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 07:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials believed that the July meeting might be suitable for a rate hike of 75 or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation. There is currently a risk of entrenched high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will come at a higher cost. Meeting minutes released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time, showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that rate hike could slow economic growth, but believed that the rate hike might need to last longer to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the inflation outlook has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow the economy.</p><p>The minutes also confirmed that the Fed will discuss at its meeting this month whether to continue its 75 basis point rate hike or slow it to 50 basis points.</p><p>Media commentators say that, given recent data showing a slightly slower economic growth, some investors believe the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated. This drove US stocks higher during the session, and the three major indices, which had turned lower more than once during the session, completely reversed their downward trend.</p><p>The July meeting will consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points.</p><p>The Federal Reserve decided to raise rate hike by 75 basis points at its June meeting, marking the largest rate hike in over 27 years. The meeting minutes show that, given the extremely tight labor market supply, inflation far exceeding the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) inflation target of 2%, and the fact that the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed with the June rate hike of 75 basis points, with only one voting against it because they supported the rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, participating officials continued to anticipate future rate hike, with the minutes specifically mentioning:</p><p>The participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insights note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>）<b>May be suitable for 75 basis points or 50 basis points in rate hike</b>。<b>Participants</b>There is consensus that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance in (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognizing that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may become even more restrictive.</b>(even more restrictive). Inflation will take time to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown.</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers expected it would take time to reduce inflation, and that suppressing inflation would come at the cost of a potential slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention efforts, and other factors constraining the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also concluded that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for a period of time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There is a deep-seated risk of high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected.</p><p>The minutes stated that the Federal Reserve policymakers at the meeting believed that, given that inflation was far above the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, the Federal Reserve is in a better position to tighten its restrictive measures once inflation is higher than expected.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>One of the major risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation could become entrenched.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, is crucial for restoring price stability. Regarding inflation, Federal Reserve officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation remains too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests that inflationary pressures show no signs of abating.</b>。 A number of people regard this as<b>This reinforced the view that inflation would last longer than they had previously expected.</b>。 There are upside risks to inflation, such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will come at a higher cost.</p><p>In assessing the economy, the Federal Reserve officials present emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor developments and changes related to inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed the risks to inflation were upside and mentioned a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants agreed that economic growth in the coming years is highly uncertain.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there were downside risks to the economic growth outlook, including that further tightening of financial conditions would have a greater negative impact on economic activity than expected, and that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention efforts on economic growth would exceed expectations.</p><p>Regarding inflation expectations, the minutes show that</p><p>While long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants were concerned that long-term inflation expectations could begin to rise to levels below the 2% target. These participants pointed out that bringing inflation back to the FOMC target would be more costly if inflation expectations got out of control.</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes in midday trading, U.S. stocks initially fell before quickly rebounding, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising during the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upwards, breaking below 107.00 in the short term before quickly rebounding to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks in early trading at near 107.30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued its upward trend, rising above 2.90% after the minutes were released, and briefly broke through 2.92%, setting a new daily high. The intraday gain exceeded 10 basis points, rebounding about 17 basis points from the more than one-month low hit by European stocks during Wednesday's intraday test of 2.75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1177613805","content_text":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通胀会比之前预期持续得更久；若通胀预期失控，降通胀将付出更高代价。美东时间7月6日周三公布的会议纪要显示，6月货币政策会议上，美联储官员承认加息可能导致经济增长放慢，但认为，要避免高通胀变得根深蒂固，可能需要加息时间持续更久。因为通胀前景已恶化，需要让利率升至刻意让经济放缓的限制性水平。同时纪要确认了，联储将在本月的会议上讨论是继续加息75个基点，还是将幅度放缓到50个基点。媒体评论称，考虑到新近数据显示经济增长略为更加放缓，一些投资者认为，美联储在6月会上重申的鹰派立场已经过时。这推动美股盘中走高，盘中不止一次转跌的三大指数彻底摆脱跌势。7月会议考虑是否再加息75个基点美联储6月会议决定加息75个基点，为逾二十七年最大力度加息。本次会议纪要显示，因为考虑到劳动力市场供应非常紧张、通胀远高于美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的通胀目标2%、近期通胀前景自5月联储会议以来已经恶化，几乎所有联储决策者都同意6月加息75个基点，只有一人因支持加息50个基点而投反对票。在讨论未来几次会议可能采取的政策行动时，与会官员依然预期适合未来继续加息，纪要特别提到：与会者判定，下次会议（华尔街见闻注：即7月会议）可能适合加息75个基点或者50个基点。与会者一致认为，经济前景对（货币）政策步入限制性的立场有保障。而且他们认识到，如果高企的通胀压力持续，立场甚至可能要限制性更强（even more restrictive）。通胀降至2%需要时间 加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓纪要显示，6月会上，美联储决策者预计降低通胀需要时间，而且压低通胀将付出经济增长可能放缓的代价。与会者认为，俄乌冲突、中国防疫和其他限制供应环境的因素将影响通胀前景，让通胀回落到联储目标可能需要一些时间。与会者还判定，在让通胀降至2%的过程中，保持强劲的劳动力市场将取决于很多影响供需的因素。与会者认识到，坚定政策可能让经济增长一段时间内放缓，但他们预计，让通胀回到2%是实现持续充分就业的关键。有高通胀根深蒂固的风险 担心5月CPI暗示通胀比之前预期持续得更久纪要称，与会美联储决策者认为，由于通胀远高于联储目标水平，要实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重目标，美联储需要转变为限制性的政策立场。而且，从风险管理的角度看，因为一旦通胀高于预期，美联储就能处于加强限制性力度的更有利地位。很多（many）与会者判定，现在（FOMC）委员会面临的一大风险是，假如公众开始怀疑委员会能否确保调整政策立场的决心，高企的通胀可能变得根深蒂固。在这方面，与会者强调，适宜地坚定货币政策，加之清晰有效的沟通，都对恢复价格稳定至关重要。在通胀方面，与会联储官员指出，通胀仍旧太高，继续远高于长期目标2%。与会者担心，5月CPI数据暗示，通胀压力还未显示减弱的迹象。多人（a number of）将此视为强化了通胀会比他们之前预期的更持久这一观点。通胀有大宗商品涨价等上行风险 若通胀预期失控 降通胀将付出更高代价在评估经济时，与会美联储官员强调，他们非常关注通胀风险，密切监控通胀以及通胀预期相关的发展变化。大多数与会者认为通胀的风险偏上行，并提到多种相关风险，包括持续的供应瓶颈、能源和大宗商品价格上涨。与会者认定，未来几年经济增长的不确定性很高。大部分与会者评估认为，经济增长的前景有偏下行的风险，下行风险包括，金融环境进一步收紧会对经济活动造成比预期更大的负面影响，以及俄乌冲突和中国防疫对经济增长的影响超出预期。在通胀预期方面，纪要显示，虽然来自家庭调查、专业预测方和市场参与者的长期通胀预期指标总体和FOMC委员会的长期通胀目标2%保持一致，但很多与会者担心，长期通胀预期可能开始上行至不符合2%目标的水平。这些与会者指出，假如通胀预期变得失控，让通胀回落到FOMC目标将付出更高的代价。市场反应午盘时段美联储会议纪要公布后，美股先回落后很快短线拉升，三大美股指盘中齐涨。美元指数震荡上行，短线下破107.00后迅速重上107.00，逼近美股早盘时逼近107.30所创的2002年12月以来高位。基准10年期美国国债收益率保持升势，纪要公布后站上2.90%，一度升破2.92%刷新日高，日内升幅超过10个基点，较周三欧股盘中下测2.75%所创的一个多月来低位回升约17个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070278186,"gmtCreate":1657070331345,"gmtModify":1676535943875,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278186","repostId":"2249531093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249531093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657057020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249531093?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 05:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | Oil prices lead the decline, commodities plummet! Recession fears trigger ripple effects","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249531093","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　由于各国央行的紧缩货币政策和对经济衰退的担忧，大宗商品市场继续上周的行情，呈现下降趋势。　　每盎司黄金价格为1784美元，创2022年1月以来的最低水平，连续第三周下跌。　　当地时间5日，英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克因对首相约翰逊失去信心而从政府辞职。　　贾维德在社交媒体表示，自己已向首相约翰逊递交辞呈。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. Economic recession concerns triggered a chain reaction, and commodities continued their downward trend from last week.</b><b>2. The British Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resigned due to a loss of confidence in the Prime Minister.</b><b>3. US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession concerns.</b><b>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, falling below the $100 mark.</b><b>5. Inflation exacerbates the situation; US coal prices hit a record high amid global energy shortages.</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": The Federal Reserve is panicking; deflation has emerged in the economy.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ba44941aea6899b18b42d54ee27498\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Recession concerns triggered a knock-on effect, with commodities continuing their downward trend from last week.</b></p><p>Commodity markets continued their downward trend from last week due to tightening monetary policies by central banks and concerns about an economic recession.</p><p>Although global macroeconomic data this week indicated a slowdown in economic activity, instructions from key central bank officials, suggesting the continuation of current monetary policy, also negatively impacted investors' risk appetite.</p><p>Concerns about a global recession also supported demand for the US dollar;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Last week, it closed at 105.1 points, its highest weekly closing price since December 2002.</p><p>The price of gold was $1,784 per ounce, its lowest level since January 2022, marking the third consecutive week of decline.</p><p>Last week, silver fell 6%, platinum fell 2.2%, its lowest level since July 2020, while palladium rose 4.5%.</p><p>Copper prices hit their lowest level since February 2021, closing down 4.3% last week. Lead loss 1.3%, aluminum loss 0.8%, nickel loss 1.5%, zinc loss 12.5%. Copper is falling in value after fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. While investors avoided zinc due to limited supply, nickel prices rose as inventories dwindled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a2ca7cedc11ebe7e2e2b9509f302ad\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>British Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resigned due to loss of confidence in the Prime Minister</b></p><p>On the 5th local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak resigned from the government due to a loss of confidence in Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>Javid stated on social media that he has submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Johnson. Javid said it was a great honor to take on this role, but he regretted that he could no longer continue working in good conscience.</p><p>In his resignation letter, Sunak stated: \"The public expects the government to manage the country correctly, competently, and seriously. I believe these standards are worth fighting for, and our country is facing enormous challenges, which is why I am resigning.\"</p><p>On the same day, Prime Minister Johnson publicly apologized for his poor appointment of Conservative Deputy Whip Christopher Pincher to a government position.</p><p>Christopher Pincher, the Conservative Deputy Whip previously appointed by Johnson, was exposed for \"groping\" and resigned on June 30. However, Ping Che was subsequently exposed for more misconduct, raising questions about whether Johnson, knowing his character, still entrusted him with important responsibilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514059be8955847da37d6a25e09bd003\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession fears.</b></p><p>The wildest trend in the US Treasury market in years has left traders with no time to enjoy their summer vacation.</p><p>A closely watched volatility indicator has surged to its highest level since the market crashed in March 2020 due to the pandemic.</p><p>On the one hand, persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's tightening policy commitments have led to the sharpest sell-off of U.S. Treasuries in at least half a century. On the other hand, the risk of an economic recession has increased, a concern that has been driving down yields as investors turn to U.S. Treasury Bond as a safe-haven asset.</p><p>The two forces locked horns repeatedly on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rising as much as 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later reversed its rise due to renewed economic concerns, falling to a low of 2.8%.</p><p>During trading, the 2-year yield rose slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inverted curve indicates that the market believes that an economic slowdown will eventually lead to a decline in short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93fee98819f0f2a3ddb6fd8d84b501ed\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, breaking below the $100 mark.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday morning Beijing time, with US WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months.</p><p>A stronger dollar and concerns that a recession could damage the outlook for energy demand are putting pressure on oil prices.</p><p>Analysts point out that the decline in crude oil futures prices is inevitable because the negative impact of oil pricing on demand and the economy has become increasingly apparent as concerns about sanctions give way to the reality that Russia is selling oil to new Asian buyers and the crude oil market is repricing.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 a barrel, marking the biggest drop since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b08931cd23d4667b9bd6c90fe32c9b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation has exacerbated the situation, with US coal prices hitting record highs amid global energy shortages.</b></p><p>Soaring global electricity demand, rising summer temperatures, and limited supplies of the most polluting fossil fuels have pushed U.S. coal prices to record highs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Data released Tuesday by the Information Administration showed that spot coal prices in the Illinois Basin surged to $190.25 per short ton in the week ending July 1. Central Appalachian coal prices also jumped to $168.05 per short ton.</p><p>These prices reached their highest level since 2005, surpassing the peak in 2008. Supply disruptions elsewhere have pushed up demand for U.S. coal.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted energy markets, and power producers around the world are struggling to secure coal and natural gas supplies to maintain power generation. However, U.S. suppliers have been closing mines for years and are now struggling to meet soaring consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Sister Wood\": The Federal Reserve is panicking; deflation has emerged in the economy.</b></p><p>In the latest episode of the In the Know podcast, Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, said that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes indicate that it has \"panicked.\"</p><p>Wood believes that policymakers are more concerned with its historical reputation than with the economy. The indicators in the inflation data indicate that \"the Federal Reserve is making a big mistake\" and that \"a lot of deflation has already occurred in the economy.\"</p><p>Wood stated last week that the U.S. economy has fallen into recession. Industry veterans believe that the Federal Reserve will have to take tougher measures to curb inflation. She believes that the Federal Reserve has already flipped the deflationary switch.</p><p>Regarding the current cryptocurrency market, Wood described her position as “neutral to positive” in the short term and said she “feels much better” about the cryptocurrency industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | Oil prices lead the decline, commodities plummet! Recession fears trigger ripple effects</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | Oil prices lead the decline, commodities plummet! Recession fears trigger ripple effects\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-06 05:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. Economic recession concerns triggered a chain reaction, and commodities continued their downward trend from last week.</b><b>2. The British Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resigned due to a loss of confidence in the Prime Minister.</b><b>3. US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession concerns.</b><b>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, falling below the $100 mark.</b><b>5. Inflation exacerbates the situation; US coal prices hit a record high amid global energy shortages.</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": The Federal Reserve is panicking; deflation has emerged in the economy.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ba44941aea6899b18b42d54ee27498\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Recession concerns triggered a knock-on effect, with commodities continuing their downward trend from last week.</b></p><p>Commodity markets continued their downward trend from last week due to tightening monetary policies by central banks and concerns about an economic recession.</p><p>Although global macroeconomic data this week indicated a slowdown in economic activity, instructions from key central bank officials, suggesting the continuation of current monetary policy, also negatively impacted investors' risk appetite.</p><p>Concerns about a global recession also supported demand for the US dollar;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Last week, it closed at 105.1 points, its highest weekly closing price since December 2002.</p><p>The price of gold was $1,784 per ounce, its lowest level since January 2022, marking the third consecutive week of decline.</p><p>Last week, silver fell 6%, platinum fell 2.2%, its lowest level since July 2020, while palladium rose 4.5%.</p><p>Copper prices hit their lowest level since February 2021, closing down 4.3% last week. Lead loss 1.3%, aluminum loss 0.8%, nickel loss 1.5%, zinc loss 12.5%. Copper is falling in value after fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. While investors avoided zinc due to limited supply, nickel prices rose as inventories dwindled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a2ca7cedc11ebe7e2e2b9509f302ad\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>British Health Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer resigned due to loss of confidence in the Prime Minister</b></p><p>On the 5th local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak resigned from the government due to a loss of confidence in Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>Javid stated on social media that he has submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Johnson. Javid said it was a great honor to take on this role, but he regretted that he could no longer continue working in good conscience.</p><p>In his resignation letter, Sunak stated: \"The public expects the government to manage the country correctly, competently, and seriously. I believe these standards are worth fighting for, and our country is facing enormous challenges, which is why I am resigning.\"</p><p>On the same day, Prime Minister Johnson publicly apologized for his poor appointment of Conservative Deputy Whip Christopher Pincher to a government position.</p><p>Christopher Pincher, the Conservative Deputy Whip previously appointed by Johnson, was exposed for \"groping\" and resigned on June 30. However, Ping Che was subsequently exposed for more misconduct, raising questions about whether Johnson, knowing his character, still entrusted him with important responsibilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514059be8955847da37d6a25e09bd003\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession fears.</b></p><p>The wildest trend in the US Treasury market in years has left traders with no time to enjoy their summer vacation.</p><p>A closely watched volatility indicator has surged to its highest level since the market crashed in March 2020 due to the pandemic.</p><p>On the one hand, persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's tightening policy commitments have led to the sharpest sell-off of U.S. Treasuries in at least half a century. On the other hand, the risk of an economic recession has increased, a concern that has been driving down yields as investors turn to U.S. Treasury Bond as a safe-haven asset.</p><p>The two forces locked horns repeatedly on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rising as much as 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later reversed its rise due to renewed economic concerns, falling to a low of 2.8%.</p><p>During trading, the 2-year yield rose slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inverted curve indicates that the market believes that an economic slowdown will eventually lead to a decline in short-term interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93fee98819f0f2a3ddb6fd8d84b501ed\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, breaking below the $100 mark.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday morning Beijing time, with US WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months.</p><p>A stronger dollar and concerns that a recession could damage the outlook for energy demand are putting pressure on oil prices.</p><p>Analysts point out that the decline in crude oil futures prices is inevitable because the negative impact of oil pricing on demand and the economy has become increasingly apparent as concerns about sanctions give way to the reality that Russia is selling oil to new Asian buyers and the crude oil market is repricing.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 a barrel, marking the biggest drop since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b08931cd23d4667b9bd6c90fe32c9b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation has exacerbated the situation, with US coal prices hitting record highs amid global energy shortages.</b></p><p>Soaring global electricity demand, rising summer temperatures, and limited supplies of the most polluting fossil fuels have pushed U.S. coal prices to record highs.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Data released Tuesday by the Information Administration showed that spot coal prices in the Illinois Basin surged to $190.25 per short ton in the week ending July 1. Central Appalachian coal prices also jumped to $168.05 per short ton.</p><p>These prices reached their highest level since 2005, surpassing the peak in 2008. Supply disruptions elsewhere have pushed up demand for U.S. coal.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted energy markets, and power producers around the world are struggling to secure coal and natural gas supplies to maintain power generation. However, U.S. suppliers have been closing mines for years and are now struggling to meet soaring consumption demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Sister Wood\": The Federal Reserve is panicking; deflation has emerged in the economy.</b></p><p>In the latest episode of the In the Know podcast, Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, said that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes indicate that it has \"panicked.\"</p><p>Wood believes that policymakers are more concerned with its historical reputation than with the economy. The indicators in the inflation data indicate that \"the Federal Reserve is making a big mistake\" and that \"a lot of deflation has already occurred in the economy.\"</p><p>Wood stated last week that the U.S. economy has fallen into recession. Industry veterans believe that the Federal Reserve will have to take tougher measures to curb inflation. She believes that the Federal Reserve has already flipped the deflationary switch.</p><p>Regarding the current cryptocurrency market, Wood described her position as “neutral to positive” in the short term and said she “feels much better” about the cryptocurrency industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-06/doc-imizirav2091453.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f1b02017ee06f402c5b5800c4d8014","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-06/doc-imizirav2091453.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2249531093","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、经济衰退担忧引发连锁效应 大宗商品继续上周下行大势2、英国卫生大臣和财政大臣因对首相失去信心而辞职3、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2% 跌破100美元关口5、通胀雪上加霜 美国煤炭价格在全球能源紧缺中创下历史新高6、“木头姐”：美联储已经慌了 经济中已出现通缩经济衰退担忧引发连锁效应 大宗商品继续上周下行大势由于各国央行的紧缩货币政策和对经济衰退的担忧，大宗商品市场继续上周的行情，呈现下降趋势。虽然本周全球宏观经济数据表明经济活动放缓，但央行主要官员发出的指示，表明继续实施当前的货币政策，也对投资者的风险偏好产生了负面影响。对全球衰退的担忧也支撑了对美元的需求；美元指数上周收于105.1点，为2002年12月以来的最高周收盘价。每盎司黄金价格为1784美元，创2022年1月以来的最低水平，连续第三周下跌。上周，白银下跌6%，铂金下跌2.2%，为2020年7月以来的最低水平，而钯金上涨4.5%。铜价创下2021年2月份以来的最低水平，上周收盘下跌4.3%。铅损失1.3%，铝损失0.8%，镍损失1.5%，锌损失12.5%。对全球经济放缓的担忧加剧后，铜正在贬值。虽然投资者因供应有限而避开锌，但镍价格随着库存的减少而上涨。英国卫生大臣和财政大臣因对首相失去信心而辞职当地时间5日，英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克因对首相约翰逊失去信心而从政府辞职。贾维德在社交媒体表示，自己已向首相约翰逊递交辞呈。贾维德称，担任这个角色是一种巨大的荣幸，但自己很遗憾不能再凭良心继续工作下去。苏纳克在辞呈中表示：“公众期望政府能够正确、称职和认真地管理国家。我相信这些标准值得为之奋斗，而我们的国家正面临着巨大的挑战，这就是我辞职的原因。”当天，首相约翰逊为自己用人不察、任命保守党副党鞭克里斯托弗·平彻担任政府职务而公开道歉。此前由约翰逊任命的保守党副党鞭克里斯托弗·平彻被曝“咸猪手”，并于6月30日辞职。然而，平彻后续被曝出更多不端行为，引发舆论对约翰逊是否明知其品行仍委以重任的质疑。美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂美债市场多年来最疯狂的走势令交易员们无暇享受暑假。一个备受关注的的波动率指标飙升至2020年3月市场因为疫情而崩盘以来的最高水平。一方面，持续存在的通胀和美联储紧缩政策承诺令美债遭遇至少半个世纪以来最猛烈的抛售，另一方面，经济衰退的风险上升，在投资者将美国国债作为避险资产时，这个隐忧一直在下拉收益率水平。两股力量周二反复拉锯， 基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%，但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现，收益率涨势逆转，最低跌到了2.8%。盘中，2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率，并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。美国WTI原油重挫8.2% 跌破100美元关口北京时间6日凌晨，原油期货价格周二大幅收跌，美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口，创两个月来的最低收盘价。美元走强以及对经济衰退可能损害能源需求前景的担忧情绪令油价承压。分析师指出，原油期货价格的下跌不可避免，因为在对制裁的担忧让位于俄罗斯向亚洲新买家出售石油的现实，原油市场重新定价，油价企对需求和经济的负面影响已变得越来越明显。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌8.93美元，跌幅为8.24%，报收于每桶99.50美元，创3月中旬以来最大跌幅，以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。通胀雪上加霜 美国煤炭价格在全球能源紧缺中创下历史新高全球电力需求大幅走高、夏季气温上升加之污染最重的化石燃料供应有限，美国煤炭价格涨破历史最高水平。美国能源信息管理局周二发布的数据显示，截至7月1日当周，伊利诺伊盆地煤炭现货价格飙升每短吨190.25美元。阿巴拉契亚中部煤价也跃升至每短吨168.05美元。上述价格创出2005年以来的最高纪录，超过了2008年的峰值。其他地区的供应受阻推高了对美国煤炭的需求。俄乌冲突扰乱了能源市场，世界各地的电力生产商都在竭力保障煤和天然气供应以保持发电。然而美国供应商多年来一直在关闭矿山，现在难以满足飙升的消耗需求。“木头姐”：美联储已经慌了 经济中已出现通缩ARK Invest创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood在最新一期的In the Know播客中表示，美联储如此激进地提高利率表明其已经“惊慌失措”。Wood认为，政策制定者更关心其历史声誉而不是经济。通胀数据中的指标表明“美联储正在犯一个大错误”，“经济中已经出现了很多通缩”。Wood曾在上周表示，美国经济已经陷入衰退。行业资深人士认为，美联储将不得不采取更严厉的措施来遏制通胀。她相信，美联储已经触动了通缩的开关。至于当前的加密货币市场，Wood将她的立场描述为短期内“中性至正面”，并表示对加密货币行业“感觉好多了”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070016652,"gmtCreate":1656983485676,"gmtModify":1676535926692,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070016652","repostId":"2249419340","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047016978,"gmtCreate":1656827322694,"gmtModify":1676535901157,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047016978","repostId":"2248136877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044616288,"gmtCreate":1656742454744,"gmtModify":1676535888492,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044616288","repostId":"1164878609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164878609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656718507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164878609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-02 07:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164878609","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股下半年首日迎来上涨，半导体板块逆势下跌；热门中概股大多走高，新能源汽车股高开低走；已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章；370亿美元大采购！三大航企齐出手，拟购入近300架空客飞机","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell; Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower. deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom; A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell.</b></p><p>US stocks rose on the first trading day of the second half of the year. Despite the volatile intraday performance, the three major indices ultimately managed to close higher amidst the fluctuations. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31,097.26. The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11,127.85. The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06%, to 3,825.33.</p><p>Among large tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Apple rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Rising 1.07%, Meta fell 0.76%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been severely impacted, with several chipmakers stating that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing consumer and business spending, and global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Dutch chipmakers plunged 5.81%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>It plummeted 5.47%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell by nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower.</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It rose 5%, while JD.com rose 2.7%. Among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.</b></p><p>Major European indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.02%, the French CAC40 rose 0.14%, and the European Stoxx 50 fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>New York WTI crude oil closed up 2.5% on Friday, up 0.8% for the week.</b></p><p>WTI crude oil futures for August delivery rose 2.52% to $108.43 a barrel, breaking away from the low hit on Thursday since last Thursday; Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 2.38% to $111.63 a barrel, erasing most of Thursday's 3% decline. US crude oil rose 0.8% this week, ending a two-week losing streak, while Brent crude oil, which was flat last week, rose 2.3%. US crude oil fell 7.8% in June, and Brent crude oil fell 6.5%, ending a six-month winning streak. However, both the second quarter and the first half of the year saw cumulative gains.</p><p><b>New York gold futures once fell below $1,800.</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, briefly falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,801.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since February. On Friday, the futures price briefly fell below $1,800, dropping to a low of $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $19.667 an ounce, their lowest closing price since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators show that the U.S. economy is on the verge of danger, with a recession rapidly approaching.</b></p><p>By now, the economic recession seems to have become a consensus. In fact, the Leading Enterprise Indicator (LEI) of the World Enterprise Institute suggests that a recession in the United States may be rapidly approaching. This leading indicator includes many market and economic indicators, such as the number of first-time jobless claims, manufacturing surveys, and stock prices. Guggenheim economist Matt Bush found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI typically indicate that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. As of May, the LEI had fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in US stocks and the drop in new orders for ISM manufacturing, there is a high probability that the LEI will fall again in June. This sign does not bode well for efforts to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The Fed's July rate hike of 75 basis points is almost a certainty: dovish officials and the San Francisco Fed president have joined the ranks of supporters.</b></p><p>San Francisco Fed President Daly, who has always been considered a dovish figure within the Federal Reserve, said that inflation in the United States is too high and the Fed must maintain its path of monetary policy tightening. \"I support the Federal Reserve further rate hike by 75 basis points in July.\"</p><p><b>The U.S. ISM manufacturing index hit a two-year low in June, with both new orders and the employment index contracting.</b></p><p>On Friday, data released by ISM showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing sector hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The decline in supplier delivery and order backlog indices suggests that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. ISM data further proves that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations and setting a new record high.</b></p><p>The Eurozone's reconciled CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, compared to the expected 8.5% and the previous value of 8.1%. The preliminary value of the core harmonized CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, compared with the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production fell for the second consecutive month in June.</b></p><p>According to media investigations, OPEC's production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in June. In addition to the UAE exceeding its target, Nigeria's daily production decreased by 100,000 barrels in June, Saudi Arabia's daily production was about 210,000 barrels below its target quota, and Kuwait also failed to meet its target, with daily production falling by 50,000 barrels.</p><p><b>Several natural gas and electricity supply giants in Northern Ireland announced significant price increases.</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while Power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 27.5% and 11%, respectively. The report states that suppliers' own submissions are attributed to persistently high wholesale energy prices.</p><p><b>Venice has announced an entry fee for tourists starting in January 2023.</b></p><p>Venturini, the cultural director of Venice, Italy, announced that starting January 16, 2023, an entrance fee will be levied on tourists arriving and leaving the city center and islands of Venice on the same day. At that time, travelers not staying in Venice will pay an entrance fee of 3 to 10 euros, depending on the booking situation, and violators will be fined 50 to 300 euros. Venice residents, students, commuters, relatives, and residents of the Veneto region do not need to pay entry fees.</p><p><b>The latest poll shows that 71% of Americans do not want Biden to run for president of*.</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a recent Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71% of respondents believe Biden should not run for a second presidential term. Among those surveyed who believe Biden should not continue running, 45% said Biden is a terrible president, about a third said he is too old, and about a quarter said it is time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>US mid-year economic growth forecast lowered</b></p><p>JPMorgan economists lowered their mid-year U.S. economic growth forecasts after most of the data released this week was weak, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from 2.5% and its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of flights in the United States were delayed or canceled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 1, more than 1,200 flights entering and leaving the United States or transiting through the United States had been delayed, and another 238 flights had been canceled. It is understood that the flight delays and cancellations occurred in early July as the United States was about to experience a long-term earthquake. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), approximately 47.9 million people will travel from January 1st to 4th local time, of which approximately 3.55 million are expected to travel by air. Over the past week, thousands of flights have been disrupted due to worker shortages and severe weather, despite airlines reducing their flights during the peak summer period from June to August by 15% to ensure the remaining flights operate normally.</p><p><b>The New York State Senate passed a bill to ban the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive places\"</b></p><p>The New York State Senate passed a bill banning the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, no one except law enforcement officers, security personnel, active-duty military personnel, and public security personnel can carry firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters, and polling stations. The bill will next be voted on in the state legislature. If it passes, it will be sent to the New York Governor's office to await the governor's signature into law.</p><p><b>The U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine.</b></p><p>On July 1 local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine, including new surface-to-air missile systems and anti-artillery radars, as well as more ammunition for the HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. The plan reportedly includes $770 million in security assistance funding for Ukraine, allowing the Department of Defense to directly provide funding to contractors to supply weapons to Ukraine, and $50 million in presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow the shipment of weapons from U.S. inventories.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta will close its cryptocurrency project Novi in September.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once drew heavy attacks from the company's founder, Mark Zuckerberg, in Congress, will now officially shut down the remaining parts of the project. Meta stated on its website regarding its test project Novi that it will cease service on September 1st. Novi provides transfer services using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. The company stated that both the Novi app and Novi on WhatsApp will no longer be available. Starting July 21, users will no longer be able to top up their accounts and are advised to withdraw their balances \"as soon as possible\". After the test period ends, users will not be able to access their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson stated that the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as its metaverse project.</p><p><b>The automotive industry's downturn continues; GM's Q2 sales plummeted 15%, but it is expected to top the sales charts.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Data released Friday showed that the company's car sales fell 15% in the second quarter as a global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions impacted production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts. GM stated that its vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2022 were 582,401 units, compared to 688,236 units in the same period last year. General Motors has long been the best-selling car brand in the United States, but the company relinquished that position last year to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>This marks the first time General Motors has lost its sales crown in the U.S. domestic automobile market since 1931. However, according to data from market research firm Cox Automotive, GM is still expected to regain the top spot in car sales this quarter, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected other automakers' inventories.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a list of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the highest civilian honor in the United States, and the White House says the winner \"embodies the soul of the nation.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with the EU: adding an \"unsubscribe\" button to Prime paid services.</b></p><p>After receiving complaints from multiple consumer groups around the world, Amazon has finally made adjustments, allowing users to easily cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, and will take effect immediately.</p><p><b>A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.</b></p><p>Friday night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have all announced that they have signed aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus, with the three companies purchasing a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft for a total amount of US$37.2 billion. All three companies gave their respective reasons for purchasing the devices, and in their announcements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It was mentioned that, based on confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve its fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>All stated that this aircraft transaction aligns with the company's fleet development strategy formulated in its 14th Five-Year Plan and will help enhance the company's market competitiveness.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | US stocks had a thrilling start to the second half of the year, with most popular Chinese concept stocks rising.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-02 07:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell; Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower. deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom; A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, while the semiconductor sector bucked the trend and fell.</b></p><p>US stocks rose on the first trading day of the second half of the year. Despite the volatile intraday performance, the three major indices ultimately managed to close higher amidst the fluctuations. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31,097.26. The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11,127.85. The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06%, to 3,825.33.</p><p>Among large tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Apple rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Rising 1.07%, Meta fell 0.76%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been severely impacted, with several chipmakers stating that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing consumer and business spending, and global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Dutch chipmakers plunged 5.81%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>It plummeted 5.47%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell by nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, while new energy vehicle stocks opened higher but closed lower.</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It rose 5%, while JD.com rose 2.7%. Among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.</b></p><p>Major European indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.25%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.02%, the French CAC40 rose 0.14%, and the European Stoxx 50 fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>New York WTI crude oil closed up 2.5% on Friday, up 0.8% for the week.</b></p><p>WTI crude oil futures for August delivery rose 2.52% to $108.43 a barrel, breaking away from the low hit on Thursday since last Thursday; Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 2.38% to $111.63 a barrel, erasing most of Thursday's 3% decline. US crude oil rose 0.8% this week, ending a two-week losing streak, while Brent crude oil, which was flat last week, rose 2.3%. US crude oil fell 7.8% in June, and Brent crude oil fell 6.5%, ending a six-month winning streak. However, both the second quarter and the first half of the year saw cumulative gains.</p><p><b>New York gold futures once fell below $1,800.</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, briefly falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,801.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since February. On Friday, the futures price briefly fell below $1,800, dropping to a low of $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $19.667 an ounce, their lowest closing price since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators show that the U.S. economy is on the verge of danger, with a recession rapidly approaching.</b></p><p>By now, the economic recession seems to have become a consensus. In fact, the Leading Enterprise Indicator (LEI) of the World Enterprise Institute suggests that a recession in the United States may be rapidly approaching. This leading indicator includes many market and economic indicators, such as the number of first-time jobless claims, manufacturing surveys, and stock prices. Guggenheim economist Matt Bush found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI typically indicate that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. As of May, the LEI had fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in US stocks and the drop in new orders for ISM manufacturing, there is a high probability that the LEI will fall again in June. This sign does not bode well for efforts to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The Fed's July rate hike of 75 basis points is almost a certainty: dovish officials and the San Francisco Fed president have joined the ranks of supporters.</b></p><p>San Francisco Fed President Daly, who has always been considered a dovish figure within the Federal Reserve, said that inflation in the United States is too high and the Fed must maintain its path of monetary policy tightening. \"I support the Federal Reserve further rate hike by 75 basis points in July.\"</p><p><b>The U.S. ISM manufacturing index hit a two-year low in June, with both new orders and the employment index contracting.</b></p><p>On Friday, data released by ISM showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing sector hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The decline in supplier delivery and order backlog indices suggests that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. ISM data further proves that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in June, exceeding expectations and setting a new record high.</b></p><p>The Eurozone's reconciled CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, compared to the expected 8.5% and the previous value of 8.1%. The preliminary value of the core harmonized CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, compared with the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production fell for the second consecutive month in June.</b></p><p>According to media investigations, OPEC's production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in June. In addition to the UAE exceeding its target, Nigeria's daily production decreased by 100,000 barrels in June, Saudi Arabia's daily production was about 210,000 barrels below its target quota, and Kuwait also failed to meet its target, with daily production falling by 50,000 barrels.</p><p><b>Several natural gas and electricity supply giants in Northern Ireland announced significant price increases.</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while Power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy raised their gas and electricity prices by 27.5% and 11%, respectively. The report states that suppliers' own submissions are attributed to persistently high wholesale energy prices.</p><p><b>Venice has announced an entry fee for tourists starting in January 2023.</b></p><p>Venturini, the cultural director of Venice, Italy, announced that starting January 16, 2023, an entrance fee will be levied on tourists arriving and leaving the city center and islands of Venice on the same day. At that time, travelers not staying in Venice will pay an entrance fee of 3 to 10 euros, depending on the booking situation, and violators will be fined 50 to 300 euros. Venice residents, students, commuters, relatives, and residents of the Veneto region do not need to pay entry fees.</p><p><b>The latest poll shows that 71% of Americans do not want Biden to run for president of*.</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a recent Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71% of respondents believe Biden should not run for a second presidential term. Among those surveyed who believe Biden should not continue running, 45% said Biden is a terrible president, about a third said he is too old, and about a quarter said it is time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>US mid-year economic growth forecast lowered</b></p><p>JPMorgan economists lowered their mid-year U.S. economic growth forecasts after most of the data released this week was weak, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from 2.5% and its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of flights in the United States were delayed or canceled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 1, more than 1,200 flights entering and leaving the United States or transiting through the United States had been delayed, and another 238 flights had been canceled. It is understood that the flight delays and cancellations occurred in early July as the United States was about to experience a long-term earthquake. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), approximately 47.9 million people will travel from January 1st to 4th local time, of which approximately 3.55 million are expected to travel by air. Over the past week, thousands of flights have been disrupted due to worker shortages and severe weather, despite airlines reducing their flights during the peak summer period from June to August by 15% to ensure the remaining flights operate normally.</p><p><b>The New York State Senate passed a bill to ban the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive places\"</b></p><p>The New York State Senate passed a bill banning the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, no one except law enforcement officers, security personnel, active-duty military personnel, and public security personnel can carry firearms in \"sensitive locations,\" including subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters, and polling stations. The bill will next be voted on in the state legislature. If it passes, it will be sent to the New York Governor's office to await the governor's signature into law.</p><p><b>The U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine.</b></p><p>On July 1 local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced an additional $820 million in military aid to Ukraine, including new surface-to-air missile systems and anti-artillery radars, as well as more ammunition for the HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. The plan reportedly includes $770 million in security assistance funding for Ukraine, allowing the Department of Defense to directly provide funding to contractors to supply weapons to Ukraine, and $50 million in presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow the shipment of weapons from U.S. inventories.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta will close its cryptocurrency project Novi in September.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once drew heavy attacks from the company's founder, Mark Zuckerberg, in Congress, will now officially shut down the remaining parts of the project. Meta stated on its website regarding its test project Novi that it will cease service on September 1st. Novi provides transfer services using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. The company stated that both the Novi app and Novi on WhatsApp will no longer be available. Starting July 21, users will no longer be able to top up their accounts and are advised to withdraw their balances \"as soon as possible\". After the test period ends, users will not be able to access their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson stated that the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as its metaverse project.</p><p><b>The automotive industry's downturn continues; GM's Q2 sales plummeted 15%, but it is expected to top the sales charts.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Data released Friday showed that the company's car sales fell 15% in the second quarter as a global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions impacted production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts. GM stated that its vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2022 were 582,401 units, compared to 688,236 units in the same period last year. General Motors has long been the best-selling car brand in the United States, but the company relinquished that position last year to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>This marks the first time General Motors has lost its sales crown in the U.S. domestic automobile market since 1931. However, according to data from market research firm Cox Automotive, GM is still expected to regain the top spot in car sales this quarter, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected other automakers' inventories.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a list of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the highest civilian honor in the United States, and the White House says the winner \"embodies the soul of the nation.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with the EU: adding an \"unsubscribe\" button to Prime paid services.</b></p><p>After receiving complaints from multiple consumer groups around the world, Amazon has finally made adjustments, allowing users to easily cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, and will take effect immediately.</p><p><b>A $37 billion purchase! The three major airlines have joined forces to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.</b></p><p>Friday night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have all announced that they have signed aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus, with the three companies purchasing a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft for a total amount of US$37.2 billion. All three companies gave their respective reasons for purchasing the devices, and in their announcements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It was mentioned that, based on confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve its fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>All stated that this aircraft transaction aligns with the company's fleet development strategy formulated in its 14th Five-Year Plan and will help enhance the company's market competitiveness.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164878609","content_text":"摘要：美股下半年首日迎来上涨，半导体板块逆势下跌；热门中概股大多走高，新能源汽车股高开低走；已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章；370亿美元大采购！三大航企齐出手，拟购入近300架空客飞机。海外市场收盘：美股下半年首日迎来上涨，半导体板块逆势下跌下半年第一个交易日，美股迎来上涨。虽然盘中走势曲折，但三大指数最终在震荡中顽强收涨。截止收盘，道指涨321.83点，涨幅为1.05%，报31097.26点；纳指涨99.11点，涨幅为0.90%，报11127.85点；标普500指数涨39.95点，涨幅为1.06%，报3825.33点。大型科技股中亚马逊涨逾3%，苹果、特斯拉涨超1%，微软上涨1.07%，Meta下跌0.76%，奈飞上涨2.9%。芯片板块受到重创，几家芯片制造商纷纷表示，通胀上升和经济降温正在减少消费者和企业的支出，全球芯片需求将减弱。安森美半导体跌近7%，台积电大跌5.81%，荷兰芯片制造商阿斯麦大跌5.47%，英伟达跌超4%，意法半导体、高通跌超3%，美光科技下跌近3%。热门中概股大多走高，新能源汽车股高开低走热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.26%。拼多多、哔哩哔哩涨超4%，知乎、爱奇艺涨超3%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%，斗鱼上涨5%，京东上涨2.7%。造车新势力中，小鹏汽车下跌4.6%，理想汽车下跌1.59%，蔚来下跌1.66%。欧股收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数涨0.25%欧股收盘主要指数收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数涨0.25%，英国富时100指数跌0.02%，法国CAC40指数涨0.14%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.17%。纽约WTI原油周五收高2.5%，本周上涨0.8%WTI 8月原油期货收涨2.52%，报108.43美元/桶，摆脱周四所创的上周四以来低位；布伦特9月原油期货收涨2.38%，报111.63美元/桶，抹平周四跌3%的多数跌幅。本周美油累涨0.8%，结束两周连跌，上周零涨跌的布油累涨2.3%。6月美油累跌7.8%，布油累跌6.5%，终结六个月连涨，不过二季度和上半年都累涨。纽约黄金期货一度跌破1800美元 纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌，盘中一度跌破关键的1800美元关口。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌5.80美元，跌幅为0.3%，收于每盎司1801.50美元，创2月以来的最低收盘价。周五盘中，该期货价格一度跌破1800美元，最低下降至1783.40美元。9月交割的白银期货价格下跌68美分，跌幅为3.4%，收于每盎司19.667美元，创2020年7月以来的最低收盘价。国际宏观领先指标显示美国经济濒临险境，衰退正迅速逼近到现在为止，经济衰退似乎已成共识。事实上，世界大型企业研究会的领先指标(LEI)表明美国经济衰退或许正迅速逼近。该领先指标包括了诸多市场和经济指标，例如首次申领失业救济人数、制造业调查和股票价格等。Guggenheim的经济学家马特·布什发现，月度LEI连续四次下降通常表明美国经济已经陷入衰退。截至5月份，LEI已经连降三个月。鉴于美股下跌和ISM制造业新订单的下滑，6月LEI再度下降的可能性很大。这个迹象对于试图让美国经济软着陆的努力来说不是个好兆头。美联储7月加息75基点几乎板上钉钉：鸽派高官旧金山联储主席加入支持行列向来被视为美联储内鸽派的旧金山联储主席戴利表示，美国通胀太高，美联储必须维持货币政策紧缩路径不变。“我支持美联储在7月份进一步加息75个基点”。美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低，新订单和就业指数均陷入萎缩周五，ISM公布的数据显示，受新订单疲软、陷入收缩拖累，美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低。库存指数接近2010年以来的最高水平。供应商交付、订单积压指数下滑，表明供应链和产能限制似乎正在缓解。ISM数据进一步证明了美国商品的需求正在放缓。欧元区6月调和CPI同比增长8.6%，高于预期，续创历史新高欧元区6月调和CPI同比8.6%，预期8.5%，前值8.1%；核心调和CPI同比初值3.7%，预期3.9%，前值3.8%。OPEC 6月原油产量连续第二月下滑根据媒体调查，石油输出国组织6月份的产量每天减少了12万桶。除了阿联酋超额完成任务以外，尼日利亚6月日产量减少了10万桶，沙特日产量比其目标配额低大约21万桶，科威特也未能达到其目标，日产量下降了5万桶。北爱尔兰多家天然气和电力供应巨头宣布大幅涨价天然气供应商SSE Airtricity和Firmus Energy分别将天然气和电力价格提高了42.7%和24.5%，电力供应商 Power NI和Click Energy 则将天然气和电力价格分别提高了27.5%和11%。 报道称，供应商自己提交归因于能源批发价格居高不下。威尼斯宣布从2023年1月起对游客征收进城费意大利威尼斯市文化局长文图里尼宣布，将从2023年1月16日起对当天到达、离开威尼斯市中心和岛屿的游客征收进城费。届时，不在威尼斯市内住宿的旅客将根据预定情况，支付3欧元到10欧元进城费，违者将被罚款50欧元到300欧元。威尼斯本地居民、学生、通勤人员、亲属和威尼托大区居民无需支付进城费。最新民调显示71%美国人不希望拜登竞选连任总统据《国会山报》报道，一项最新的哈佛大学CAPS-Harris民意调查显示，71%的受访者认为拜登不应该参加第二个总统任期的竞选。在认为拜登不应该继续参选的受访者中，45%的人表示拜登是一个糟糕的总统，大约三分之一的人表示因为他年纪太大了，大约四分之一的人表示是时候做出改变了。此外，61%的受访者认为，前总统特朗普不应该在2024年再度参选。摩根大通下调美国年中经济增长预期摩根大通经济学家下调了美国年中经济增长预期，因本周美国公布的大多数数据表现疲软，其中最明显的是消费者支出放缓。该行将美国第二季度GDP预期从此前的2.5%下调至1%，将第三季度GDP预期从2%下调至1%。受工人短缺和恶劣天气影响，美国上千航班被延误或取消截至美国东部时间7月1日上午10点30分，当日已有超过1200个进出美国或经停美国的航班被延误，另有238个航班被取消。据悉，航班的延误和取消发生在美国7月初小长期来临之际。据美国汽车协会（AAA）预计，当地时间1日至4日将有约4790万人出行，其中约355万人预计将乘坐飞机。在过去的一周里，尽管航空公司将位于6月至8月夏季高峰期的航班减少了15%以确保剩余航班的正常运行，但由于工人短缺和恶劣天气的影响，仍有数千个航班的飞行计划被扰乱。美国纽约州参议院通过法案，禁止在“敏感场所”携带枪支美国纽约州参议院通过法案，禁止在包括时报广场和所有公共交通设施等“敏感场所”携带枪支。根据立法，除执法人员、治安人员、现役军人和公安人员外，其他人不能在“敏感场所”携带枪支，其中包括地铁、火车、公共汽车、渡轮、政府大楼、教堂、学校、图书馆、公共游乐场、公园、动物园、流浪者收容所和投票站。该法案下一步将在州议会进行投票，若投票通过，将被送至纽约州长办公室等待州长签署成为正式法律。美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元额外军事援助当地时间7月1日，美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元的额外军事援助，其中包括新的地对空导弹系统和反炮兵雷达，并为“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭炮系统提供更多弹药。据介绍，该计划包括7.7亿美元的乌克兰安全援助计划资金，允许国防部直接向承包商提供资金，为乌克兰提供武器，以及5000万美元的总统“提款授权”，允许从美国库存中运出武器。公司新闻Meta将在9月关闭其加密货币项目NoviMeta Platforms的加密货币项目曾经令该公司创始人马克·扎克伯格在国会饱受攻击，现在，该项目的剩余部分也将正式关闭。Meta在测试项目Novi其网站上表示，将于9月1日停止服务。Novi使用Meta自己的加密货币数字钱包提供转账服务。该公司表示，Novi应用程序和WhatsApp上的Novi都将不再可用。从7月21日开始，用户将无法再向他们的帐户充值，建议“尽快”提取余额。在测试期结束后，用户将无法访问其交易历史记录或其他数据。Meta发言人表示，该公司确实计划在未来产品中使用Novi的技术，例如在其元宇宙项目中。汽车行业颓势仍在持续 通用Q2销量大跌15% 但有望问鼎销售桂冠通用汽车周五公布的数据显示，该公司二季度汽车销量下降了15%，原因是全球芯片短缺和供应链中断影响了生产，导致近10万辆汽车在等待零部件。通用表示，公司2022年二季度汽车销量为582,401辆，而去年同期则为688,236辆。通用汽车长期以来都是美国最畅销的汽车品牌，不过该公司去年将这一宝座拱手让给了丰田汽车，这也是通用自1931年以来首次丢失美国本土汽车市场销售桂冠。然而，根据市场研究机构Cox Automotive的数据，通用当季仍有望夺回汽车销售冠军，因为全行业的供应中断同样影响到了其他汽车制造商的库存。已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章当地时间周五，美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）宣布了17名总统自由勋章获得者的名单，其中包括已故苹果公司联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）。该奖项是美国最高平民荣誉，白宫称获奖者“体现了国家的灵魂”。亚马逊向欧盟妥协：为Prime付费服务增加“取消订阅”按钮在遭到全球多家消费者团体的投诉后，亚马逊终于做出调整，让用户轻松地取消对“Amazon Prime”服务的订阅。这一调整将适用于所有欧盟网站，以及台式设备、手机和平板电脑，且立即生效。370亿美元大采购！三大航企齐出手，拟购入近300架空客飞机周五晚间中国东航、中国国航、南方航空纷纷公告与空客签订购机协议，三家公司合计采购A320NEO系列飞机共292架，合计金额372亿美元。三家公司均给出了各自的购机理由，在公告中，东方航空提到，基于对于民航业未来发展的信心，公司需提前对机队运力进行规划和储备。中国国航及南方航空均提到，本次飞机交易符合本公司十四五规划制定的机队发展策略，有助于增强本公司市场竞争力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045572410,"gmtCreate":1656638512230,"gmtModify":1676535868623,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045572410","repostId":"1197380978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045962820,"gmtCreate":1656551978760,"gmtModify":1676535852106,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962820","repostId":"1120000025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120000025","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656546145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120000025?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 07:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | S&P 500 Rebound Fails, Hovering in Bear Market, Poised for Biggest Six-Month Drop Since 1970","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120000025","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① US stocks were mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.27%, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally declining; ② The three central bank governors from Europe and the United States unanimously stated that curbing inflation is the primary task at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice announced that it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks; ④ Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with major tech stocks showing mixed performance.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes the U.S. economy is strong and can withstand rate hike, but a soft landing cannot be guaranteed. At the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11,177.89 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27% to 31,029.31. The S&P 500 fell 0.07% to 3,818.83 points, entering bear territory for the second consecutive day. It closed down more than 20% from its record high on January 3 this year and is poised to record its biggest six-month drop since 1970 by Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points, marking the third consecutive day of declines for both the S&P 500 and the S&P 500, continuing to fall from the highs reached last Friday since June 9.</p><p>Major tech stocks fluctuated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down more than 2%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It rose over 9%, while Ctrip rose 2.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell 4.3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It closed flat. In new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to Grizzlies' short selling claims that the report contained \"numerous errors,\" its U.S. stock fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak. The prospect of a weak global economy has put pressure on oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, at $109.78 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures fell 0.2%, hitting a two-week low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, hitting their lowest closing price in two weeks, marking the third consecutive day of declines. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas prices rose 8% to a three-month high.</p><p>European natural gas prices rebounded strongly. ICE UK gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence per kilocalorie, breaking away from the low hit on June 13, the day before Monday, when they fell 3% on Tuesday. TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at €139.588 per megawatt-hour, a new high since March 8, and a new high in more than three months, following highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The US first-quarter GDP was revised down again! The annualized quarterly rate decline widened to 1.6%.</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis again lowered the U.S. first-quarter GDP growth rate. Specific data shows that the annualized quarterly rate of US GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared to the 1.1% growth expected by economists. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report stated that weakness in personal consumption spending was the main reason for this downgrade. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The US quarterly GDP figures will be released three times. In the preliminary report in April, the annualized quarterly GDP rate fell by 1.4%. In the revised value report, this decrease was expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the United States' performance this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the US economy is strong and the Federal Reserve can avoid a recession.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank’s annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is “strong” and the central bank can bring inflation down to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Powell said raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there are ways to achieve that goal.\"</p><p>3. Democrats discuss reducing tax increases in hopes of passing Biden's economic package in the coming weeks.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Senate Democrats are seeking to reduce tax increases in President Joe Biden's economic package in hopes of reaching an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and getting the plan passed in the coming weeks. Sources familiar with the matter said the adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year, potentially meaning that U.S. businesses and wealthy families would ultimately receive smaller tax increases than Biden and the Democrats initially envisioned.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th; his successor will be Biden's nominee, Jackson.</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th, and will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, Biden's nominee and the first African American female justice in U.S. history. Breyer, 83, has served on the Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal on the Supreme Court and is one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the replacement, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices on the U.S. Supreme Court remains 6:3, which has not changed the current situation.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe Biden has led the United States down the wrong path.</p><p>A poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico shows that 78% of Americans surveyed believe President Biden is leading the United States down the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents believed the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations has filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases.</p><p>On June 29 local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit on the evening of June 28 against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases. These environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the Federal Land Policy and Management Act, and point out that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. The report states that the White House is analyzing what would happen to the economy if oil prices rose to $200.</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, media reports indicated that the Biden administration has begun analyzing and simulating the economic damage that international oil prices would cause when they reach $200 a barrel. As the media commented, economic officials are not studying how to manage a naturally developing economy from recovery to a period of stable growth, but rather analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching $200 a barrel might mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC+ will follow up with a second step after the recent production increase.</p><p>In an interview, Amos Hochstein, senior energy security advisor at the U.S. State Department, said the U.S. welcomed OPEC+'s decision earlier this month to accelerate oil supply growth, calling it a \"significant shift in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" of its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic petroleum reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the US, Iran, and the EU concluded without achieving the expected results.</p><p>On the evening of June 29 local time, negotiations between Iran, the United States, and the European Union aimed at lifting US sanctions against Iran concluded in Doha, the capital of Qatar. \"We have not yet made the progress we had hoped for, but we will continue to work to get the Iran nuclear deal back on track,\" said Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service.</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer regulations under anti-money laundering rules for encryption software.</p><p>The European Parliament announced that EU negotiators have reached an agreement on the regulation of fund transfers under anti-money laundering rules for cryptocurrency software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft 2023 fiscal budget, which plans to reinstate the \"debt brake\" principle.</p><p>According to sources within the German government on June 29 local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will decrease to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to resume compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle starting next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June as the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures.</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as temporary government relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by record-high prices. Data released Wednesday showed that fuel tax cuts and discounts on public transportation costs helped consumer price increases fall to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May. Analysts surveyed had previously estimated an 8.8% increase.</p><p>13. Finnish President: Finland and Sweden will sign an accession protocol no later than July 5th.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Finnish President Niinistö stated at a press conference in Madrid, Spain, that Finland and Sweden would sign an accession protocol no later than July 5.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operation against Ukraine may undergo tactical changes.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the objectives of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin stated that Western calls for Ukraine to continue fighting confirm Russia's suspicions that Western countries do not want to protect Ukraine's interests, but their own. Putin also stated that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice announced it has frozen $330 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs and banks.</p><p>The U.S. Department of Justice stated that the United States and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs, and relevant task forces have already frozen Russian...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funds amount to approximately $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, agents, and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details regarding the seizure of high-value assets owned by Russian business giants. They are trying to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and continue to exert political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Justice Department believes the task force's work is \"not yet complete,\" and the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>The Russian government has responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to retaliate, such as confiscating assets owned by Western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria.</p><p>Following Syria's announcement of recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic,\" Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria that evening. In a regular video on the 29th, Zelensky stated that \"there will be no more relations between Ukraine and Syria,\" and added that Ukraine will also impose stronger sanctions on Syria.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson pledged an additional £1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>On June 29 local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson pledged to provide Ukraine with an additional £1 billion in military aid, bringing the UK's military aid to Ukraine during the current Russia-Ukraine conflict to £2.3 billion. This funding will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare equipment.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: Some Central and Eastern European countries will be severely impacted if Russian natural gas supplies are cut off.</p><p>In a report, international rating agency Fitch Ratings said that a sudden interruption of Russia's natural gas supplies to the EU would have serious impacts on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. The report states that if Russian gas supplies are cut off, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic will be most severely affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania, and Romania have been less affected because they have largely found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">A food giant heavily invested in by Warren Buffett has a falling out with a supermarket chain: won't they allow price increases? Removed from shelves!</a></p><p>According to local British media reports, many of Kraft Heinz's products have been removed from supermarket shelves due to a breakdown in talks between American food producer Kraft Heinz and British supermarket chain Tesco over price increases. As is well known, Kraft Heinz is also a favorite stock of Warren Buffett.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Currently holding 26.61% of the company's shares, it is the company's largest shareholder. A Tesco spokesperson righteously stated that they regretted the change would lead to the removal of many products from shelves, but the supermarket would not pass on unreasonable price increases to their customers, and that consumers had \"many alternatives.\" With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets have a greater responsibility than ever to ensure customers get the best value.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly production in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing sources familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly has been approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab for the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its application for clinical trials of Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signed a $3.2 billion vaccine order with the U.S. government: the price per dose is about $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer announced that it has signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, which is expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | S&P 500 Rebound Fails, Hovering in Bear Market, Poised for Biggest Six-Month Drop Since 1970</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | S&P 500 Rebound Fails, Hovering in Bear Market, Poised for Biggest Six-Month Drop Since 1970\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-30 07:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① US stocks were mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.27%, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally declining; ② The three central bank governors from Europe and the United States unanimously stated that curbing inflation is the primary task at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice announced that it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks; ④ Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with major tech stocks showing mixed performance.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes the U.S. economy is strong and can withstand rate hike, but a soft landing cannot be guaranteed. At the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11,177.89 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27% to 31,029.31. The S&P 500 fell 0.07% to 3,818.83 points, entering bear territory for the second consecutive day. It closed down more than 20% from its record high on January 3 this year and is poised to record its biggest six-month drop since 1970 by Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points, marking the third consecutive day of declines for both the S&P 500 and the S&P 500, continuing to fall from the highs reached last Friday since June 9.</p><p>Major tech stocks fluctuated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down more than 2%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It rose over 9%, while Ctrip rose 2.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell 4.3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It closed flat. In new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to Grizzlies' short selling claims that the report contained \"numerous errors,\" its U.S. stock fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak. The prospect of a weak global economy has put pressure on oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, at $109.78 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures fell 0.2%, hitting a two-week low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, hitting their lowest closing price in two weeks, marking the third consecutive day of declines. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas prices rose 8% to a three-month high.</p><p>European natural gas prices rebounded strongly. ICE UK gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence per kilocalorie, breaking away from the low hit on June 13, the day before Monday, when they fell 3% on Tuesday. TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at €139.588 per megawatt-hour, a new high since March 8, and a new high in more than three months, following highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The US first-quarter GDP was revised down again! The annualized quarterly rate decline widened to 1.6%.</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis again lowered the U.S. first-quarter GDP growth rate. Specific data shows that the annualized quarterly rate of US GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared to the 1.1% growth expected by economists. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report stated that weakness in personal consumption spending was the main reason for this downgrade. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The US quarterly GDP figures will be released three times. In the preliminary report in April, the annualized quarterly GDP rate fell by 1.4%. In the revised value report, this decrease was expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the United States' performance this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the US economy is strong and the Federal Reserve can avoid a recession.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank’s annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is “strong” and the central bank can bring inflation down to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Powell said raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there are ways to achieve that goal.\"</p><p>3. Democrats discuss reducing tax increases in hopes of passing Biden's economic package in the coming weeks.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Senate Democrats are seeking to reduce tax increases in President Joe Biden's economic package in hopes of reaching an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and getting the plan passed in the coming weeks. Sources familiar with the matter said the adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year, potentially meaning that U.S. businesses and wealthy families would ultimately receive smaller tax increases than Biden and the Democrats initially envisioned.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th; his successor will be Biden's nominee, Jackson.</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th, and will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, Biden's nominee and the first African American female justice in U.S. history. Breyer, 83, has served on the Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal on the Supreme Court and is one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the replacement, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices on the U.S. Supreme Court remains 6:3, which has not changed the current situation.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe Biden has led the United States down the wrong path.</p><p>A poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico shows that 78% of Americans surveyed believe President Biden is leading the United States down the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents believed the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations has filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases.</p><p>On June 29 local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit on the evening of June 28 against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases. These environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the Federal Land Policy and Management Act, and point out that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. The report states that the White House is analyzing what would happen to the economy if oil prices rose to $200.</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, media reports indicated that the Biden administration has begun analyzing and simulating the economic damage that international oil prices would cause when they reach $200 a barrel. As the media commented, economic officials are not studying how to manage a naturally developing economy from recovery to a period of stable growth, but rather analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching $200 a barrel might mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC+ will follow up with a second step after the recent production increase.</p><p>In an interview, Amos Hochstein, senior energy security advisor at the U.S. State Department, said the U.S. welcomed OPEC+'s decision earlier this month to accelerate oil supply growth, calling it a \"significant shift in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" of its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic petroleum reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the US, Iran, and the EU concluded without achieving the expected results.</p><p>On the evening of June 29 local time, negotiations between Iran, the United States, and the European Union aimed at lifting US sanctions against Iran concluded in Doha, the capital of Qatar. \"We have not yet made the progress we had hoped for, but we will continue to work to get the Iran nuclear deal back on track,\" said Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service.</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer regulations under anti-money laundering rules for encryption software.</p><p>The European Parliament announced that EU negotiators have reached an agreement on the regulation of fund transfers under anti-money laundering rules for cryptocurrency software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft 2023 fiscal budget, which plans to reinstate the \"debt brake\" principle.</p><p>According to sources within the German government on June 29 local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will decrease to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to resume compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle starting next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June as the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures.</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as temporary government relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by record-high prices. Data released Wednesday showed that fuel tax cuts and discounts on public transportation costs helped consumer price increases fall to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May. Analysts surveyed had previously estimated an 8.8% increase.</p><p>13. Finnish President: Finland and Sweden will sign an accession protocol no later than July 5th.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Finnish President Niinistö stated at a press conference in Madrid, Spain, that Finland and Sweden would sign an accession protocol no later than July 5.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operation against Ukraine may undergo tactical changes.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the objectives of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin stated that Western calls for Ukraine to continue fighting confirm Russia's suspicions that Western countries do not want to protect Ukraine's interests, but their own. Putin also stated that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice announced it has frozen $330 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs and banks.</p><p>The U.S. Department of Justice stated that the United States and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs, and relevant task forces have already frozen Russian...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funds amount to approximately $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, agents, and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details regarding the seizure of high-value assets owned by Russian business giants. They are trying to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and continue to exert political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Justice Department believes the task force's work is \"not yet complete,\" and the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>The Russian government has responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to retaliate, such as confiscating assets owned by Western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria.</p><p>Following Syria's announcement of recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic,\" Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria that evening. In a regular video on the 29th, Zelensky stated that \"there will be no more relations between Ukraine and Syria,\" and added that Ukraine will also impose stronger sanctions on Syria.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson pledged an additional £1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>On June 29 local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson pledged to provide Ukraine with an additional £1 billion in military aid, bringing the UK's military aid to Ukraine during the current Russia-Ukraine conflict to £2.3 billion. This funding will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare equipment.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: Some Central and Eastern European countries will be severely impacted if Russian natural gas supplies are cut off.</p><p>In a report, international rating agency Fitch Ratings said that a sudden interruption of Russia's natural gas supplies to the EU would have serious impacts on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. The report states that if Russian gas supplies are cut off, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic will be most severely affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania, and Romania have been less affected because they have largely found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">A food giant heavily invested in by Warren Buffett has a falling out with a supermarket chain: won't they allow price increases? Removed from shelves!</a></p><p>According to local British media reports, many of Kraft Heinz's products have been removed from supermarket shelves due to a breakdown in talks between American food producer Kraft Heinz and British supermarket chain Tesco over price increases. As is well known, Kraft Heinz is also a favorite stock of Warren Buffett.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Currently holding 26.61% of the company's shares, it is the company's largest shareholder. A Tesco spokesperson righteously stated that they regretted the change would lead to the removal of many products from shelves, but the supermarket would not pass on unreasonable price increases to their customers, and that consumers had \"many alternatives.\" With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets have a greater responsibility than ever to ensure customers get the best value.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly production in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing sources familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly has been approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab for the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its application for clinical trials of Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signed a $3.2 billion vaccine order with the U.S. government: the price per dose is about $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer announced that it has signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, which is expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UNG":"美国天然气基金",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120000025","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产；④乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系。海外市场1、美股周三收盘涨跌不一大型科技股涨跌各异美股周三收盘涨跌不一，美联储主席鲍威尔认为美国经济形势强劲，可以承受加息，但不能保证经济软着陆。截至收盘，纳指跌0.03%，报11177.89点；道指涨0.27%，报31029.31点；标普500指数跌0.07%，报3818.83点，连续两日处于熊市区间，收盘较今年1月3日的纪录高位跌超20%，势将截至本周四录得1970年以来最大的半年度跌幅。纳指收跌0.03%，报11177.89点，和标普均连跌三日，继续跌离上周五所创的6月9日以来高位。大型科技股涨跌各异，亚马逊上涨1.4%，苹果、微软涨超1%，特斯拉跌1.79%，Meta上涨2%。2、热门中概股收盘大多走低蔚来跌超2%热门中概股周三收盘大多走低，途牛、新东方涨超9%，携程涨2.5%，京东涨0.5%，阿里巴巴跌0.6%，哔哩哔哩跌4.3%，拼多多涨0.2%，贝壳收平。新能源汽车中，蔚来回应灰熊做空称报告存在“大量错误”，其美股跌2.4%。理想汽车涨2.7%，小鹏汽车跌1.7%。3、欧股主要指数收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌1.7%欧股主要指数周三收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.7%，英国富时100指数跌0.14%，法国CAC40指数跌0.98%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌1%。4、美国WTI原油期货周三收跌1.77% 结束三连涨美国原油期货价格周三收跌，结束了此前连续三个交易日上涨的行情。全球经济疲软的前景令油价受到压力。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌1.98美元，跌幅为1.77%，报收于每桶109.78美元。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.2% 创两周新低纽约黄金期货价格周三收跌并创两周来的最低收盘价，录得连续第三个交易日录得跌幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌3.70美元，跌幅为0.2%，报收于每盎司1817.50美元，创6月14日以来的最低收盘价。6、欧洲天然气涨8% 创三个月新高欧洲天然气强劲反弹。ICE英国天然气期货收涨4.42%，报174.12便士/千卡，脱离周二跌3%所创的6月13日上上周一以来低位；TTF基准荷兰天然气期货收涨8.03%，报139.588欧元/兆瓦时，创3月8日以来新高，继上周三和周四创3月11日以来新高后又创三个多月新高。国际宏观1、美国一季度GDP再遭下调！年化季率降幅扩大至1.6%当地时间周三（6月29日），美国经济分析局公布的最新报告再次下调了美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速。具体数据显示，今年第一季度美国GDP年化季率下降了1.6%，这一降幅相比于经济学家预计的增长1.1%无疑是个巨大的打击。经济分析局的报告称，个人消费支出的疲软是本次下调的主要原因。值得一提的是，这已是一季度GDP的第二次下修。美国季度GDP会公布三次，4月份的初值报告中，GDP年化季率下降1.4%；在修正值报告中，这个降幅扩大至1.5%。报告还指出，创记录的贸易逆差拖累美国这一季的表现。2、鲍威尔称美国经济强劲 美联储可避免衰退美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行年度政策论坛上的小组讨论中表示，美国经济状况“强劲”，央行可以在维持稳固劳动力市场的同时将通胀率降至2%，虽然最近几个月这个任务变得更具挑战性。鲍威尔说，在不引发经济衰退的情况下提高利率是“我们的目标，我们也相信有实现这一目标的途径”。3、民主党讨论削减加税幅度 希望使拜登一揽子经济计划未来几周获通过知情人士透露，美国参议院民主党人正在寻求降低总统乔·拜登经济一揽子计划中的加税幅度，希望以此与参议员乔·曼钦达成一致，并使该计划未来几周获得通过。知情人士说，正在考虑的调整将削弱众议院去年通过的一些加税措施，可能意味着美国企业和富有家庭最终的加税幅度都小于拜登和民主党最初的设想。4、美最高法院大法官布雷耶将于30日退休 继任者为拜登提名的杰克逊当地时间周三，美国联邦最高法院宣布，自由派大法官斯蒂芬·布雷耶(Stephen Breyer)将于30日正式退休，接任他的将是美国历史上第一位非裔女性大法官、拜登提名的凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊(Ketanji Brown Jackson)。布雷耶现年83岁，自1994年以来一直在联邦最高法院任职，他被认为是最高法院的自由派，也是仅有的三名自由派大法官之一。因此，即使在换人之后，在美国最高法院中，保守派与自由派大法官的比例依旧为6:3，并没有改变当前的格局。5、美民调：78%的美国人认为拜登带领美国走错了道路美国晨间咨询公司（Morning Consult）与《政治报》（Politico）联合进行的一项民意调查显示，有78%参与调查的美国人认为总统拜登在政策上带领美国走错了道路。拜登上任后2021年2月下旬的民意调查中，有51%的受访者认为美国朝着错误的方向前进。这项数据自那以来增加了27个百分点。6、美环保组织联盟对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼当地时间6月29日，由10个环保组织组成的联盟于28日晚间对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼。这些环保组织表示，该租约违反了美国《国家环境政策法案》和《联邦土地政策和管理法案》，并指出额外的钻井将导致气候变化。7、报道称白宫正分析油价涨到200美元经济会怎样美东时间周三，据媒体报道称，拜登政府已经开始分析和模拟当国际油价达到每桶200美元之时将会对经济造成什么样的破坏，正如媒体所评论的：经济官员们并非在研究管理一个处于自然发展中的经济，从复苏进入一个稳定的增长期，而是在分析和模拟最坏的情况，比如油价达到每桶200美元的冲击对经济可能意味着什么。8、美国希望OPEC+近期增产后将有第二步跟进美国国务院能源安全高级顾问Amos Hochstein接受采访时表示，美国欢迎OPEC+本月早些时候加快石油供应增速的决定，称这是“态度的重大转变”。Hochstein希望OPEC+ 7月和8月增产64.8万桶/天的计划是其供应政策的“第一步”，随后将有“第二步”跟进。美国正在与仍然有闲置产能的OPEC国家会谈，将评估是否有必要在10月份以后进一步释放战略石油储备。9、美、伊、欧盟多哈会谈结束 未获得预期成果当地时间6月29日晚，伊朗、美国、欧盟三方旨在美国解除对伊制裁的谈判在卡塔尔首都多哈结束。欧盟对外行动署副秘书长莫拉表示， “我们尚未取得此前希望的进展，但我们将继续努力使伊核协议重回正轨。”10、欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议欧洲议会表示，欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议。11、德国内阁正在审议2023年财政预算草案 计划重新遵守“债务刹车”原则据德国政府内部人士当地时间6月29日透露，联邦内阁正在审议2023年的财政预算。受新冠疫情影响，德国已经连续三年打破“债务刹车”原则。根据联邦财政部长林德纳提交的预算草案，2023年，德国政府的贷款总额将下降至170亿欧元左右。因此，德国计划从明年开始重新遵守“债务刹车”原则。12、德国6月份通胀有所放缓 政府的临时救济措施减轻了通胀压力德国通胀意外放缓，因为政府的临时救济措施减轻了受到物价创纪录飙升挤压的家庭和企业的压力。周三公布的数据显示，燃油税下调和公共交通成本折扣帮助6月份消费者价格涨幅从5月的8.7%降至8.2%。接受调查的分析师之前预估为上升8.8%。13、芬兰总统：芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书当地时间6月29日，芬兰总统尼尼斯托在西班牙马德里举行的新闻发布会上表示，芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书。俄乌局势1、普京：俄对乌特别军事行动在战术层面可能有变化当地时间6月29日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，俄罗斯对乌克兰的特别军事行动目标不会改变，而在战术层面可能有变化。普京表示，西方国家呼吁乌克兰继续战斗证实了俄罗斯方面的猜想，即西方国家想保护的并不是乌克兰的利益，而是他们自身的利益。普京还表示，如果北约在芬兰和瑞典部署军事力量，俄罗斯方面将不得不采取应对措施。2、美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产美国司法部称，美国及其盟友已冻结了超过300亿美元的俄罗斯寡头的资产，相关专案组已经冻结了俄罗斯中央银行资金约3000亿美元。美国组建的俄罗斯精英、代理人和寡头（REPO）专案组发布了关于扣押俄罗斯商业巨头拥有的高价值财产的新细节。他们试图扣押这些巨头的奢侈品，包括价值数亿美元的游艇，对俄罗斯总统普京持续施加政治压力。司法部认为专案组工作“尚未完成”，在未来几个月里，专案组将继续追踪俄罗斯资产。针对西方国家不断扣押和冻结俄罗斯资产的行为，俄罗斯官方作出了回应。俄罗斯外交部发言人周三警告称，俄罗斯有权采取报复措施，比如同样可以没收西方国家在俄罗斯拥有的资产。3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系在叙利亚宣布承认“卢甘斯克人民共和国”和“顿涅茨克人民共和国”的主权和独立后，乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天晚间宣布中断该国与叙利亚的外交关系。泽连斯基在29日的例行视频中表示，“乌克兰和叙利亚之间将不再有关系”，并称乌克兰对叙利亚的制裁力度也将更大。4、英国首相约翰逊承诺再向乌克兰提供10亿英镑军事援助当地时间6月29日，在西班牙首都马德里举办的北约峰会上，英国首相约翰逊承诺将再向乌克兰提供价值10亿英镑的军事援助，这使得英国在本次俄乌冲突期间为乌克兰提供的军事援助资金达到23亿英镑。这笔资金将用于研发防空系统、无人飞行器、电子战设备等。5、国际评级机构惠誉：若俄天然气断供 部分中东欧国家将受重创国际评级机构惠誉在一份报告中说，如果俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气供应突然中断，将对部分中东欧国家产生严重影响，包括高通胀、经济负增长等。报告称，如果俄罗斯天然气断供，斯洛伐克、匈牙利和捷克所受的影响将最为严重，因为这些国家高度依赖俄罗斯天然气、缺少可替代产品。而波兰、立陶宛和罗马尼亚受到的影响较小，因为上述国家基本找到了替代能源或实现国内生产。公司新闻1、巴菲特重仓的食品巨头与连锁超市闹掰：不让涨价？下架！据英国当地媒体报道，由于美国食品生产商卡夫·亨氏与英国连锁超市乐购在涨价问题上谈崩，该公司的许多产品已经从该超市下架。众所周知，卡夫·亨氏也是巴菲特的爱股，伯克希尔目前持有公司26.61%的股权，是公司第一大股东。乐购发言人义正言辞地表示，很遗憾这一变化会导致许多产品下架，但超市不会将不合理的价格上涨转嫁给我们的客户，同时消费者也有“很多的替代选择”。随着英国家庭预算面临越来越大的压力，超市比以往任何时候都更有责任确保用户获得最佳的价值。2、特斯拉得州周产量达5000辆据汽车新闻网站Electrek援引知情人士消息称，特斯拉已经设法提高了其位于得州的超级工厂的产量，每周可交付多达5000辆汽车。这个工厂还生产长续航版Model Y，有助于提高整体产量。特斯拉的目标是在年底前将周产量提高到1万辆。3、礼来获批在中国开展Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病的临床试验礼来中国宣布，其在中国申报的Donanemab注射液临床试验申请获得了国家药品监督管理局的批准。这是一项评估Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病，包括阿尔茨海默病所致的轻度认知障碍以及轻度阿尔茨海默病的安全性和有效性的全球研究。4、辉瑞与美国政府签订32亿美元疫苗大单：每剂价格约为30.50美元当地时间周三，辉瑞公司表示，已同美国政府签订新的疫苗供应协议，美国政府将向辉瑞支付32亿美元，购买1.05亿剂新冠疫苗，预计最早将于今年夏末交付。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"QGmain":0.9,"DGAZ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UNG":0.9,"UGAZ":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042692122,"gmtCreate":1656465600566,"gmtModify":1676535834773,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042692122","repostId":"1123245128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123245128","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656459709,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123245128?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 07:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The S&P 500 returned to a bear market! Sister Wood shouts that a recession has arrived in the United States.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123245128","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股收跌，道指跌1.56%，纳指跌幅2.98%，标普500跌2.01%；②原油连涨3日创两周新高，黄金创两周新低；③美国6月消费者信心降至16个月来最低；④土耳其同意瑞典和芬兰加入北约，并","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks closed lower overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.56%, the Nasdaq Composite down 2.98%, and the S&P 500 down 2.01%; ② Crude oil rose for three consecutive days to a two-week high, while gold hit a two-week low; ③ US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 16 months in June; ④ Türkiye agreed to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO and signed a trilateral memorandum. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed lower overnight, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 3%, and major technology stocks leading the decline.</p><p>Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.56% at 30,946.99 points. The Nasdaq fell 2.98% to 11,181.54 points; The S&P 500 fell 2.01% to 3,821.56 points.</p><p>Major tech stocks led the declines, with $AMD (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>)$(Chaowei Semiconductor) fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It closed down 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>-A fell by more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks saw mixed performance on Tuesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Surged 47%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index dropping 1.45% to close at 8,034 points. Travel service stocks surged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>It surged 47%, with Ctrip rising over 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>The group rose more than 7%. In terms of news, the National Health Commission released the ninth version of the COVID-19 prevention and control plan, adjusting the quarantine and control time for close contacts and inbound personnel from \"14+7\" to \"7+3\".</p><p>Regarding other Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell 3.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>It fell 3.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It fell 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 2.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.2%. In new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell 5.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 4.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automotive stocks fell more than 2% after short-selling firm Grizzly Research published a report on short selling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>The automaker claims the company emulates a Valeant-style accounting game, achieving its goals by exaggerating revenue and increasing net profit margins.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices generally closed higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.97%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed higher on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.35% and the UK's...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 0.97%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.64%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.3%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures closed 2% higher on Tuesday, hitting a near two-week high.</p><p>New York crude oil futures prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since mid-June. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.19, or 2%, to settle at $111.76 a barrel, the highest closing price since June 16.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the relaxation of anti-pandemic policies in Asia helped oil prices rise for three consecutive days after a sharp decline in recent weeks. In addition, reports indicate that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are approaching their crude oil production capacity ceilings, which contrasts sharply with claims that the two countries are holding back on capacity and may even continue to limit production.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2% on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price in nearly two weeks.</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price in nearly two weeks. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.60, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,821.20 an ounce, the lowest closing price on June 15.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 16 months in June, with inflationary pressures persisting.</p><p>The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in June as inflation continued to dampen Americans' economic outlook. Data released Tuesday showed that the World Business Association's consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 from a downward revision of 103.2 in May. The median expectation of economists surveyed was a drop to 100. As Americans become increasingly pessimistic about the economic, employment, and income outlook, indicators reflecting expectations for the next six months have fallen to their lowest level in nearly a decade. Indicators reflecting the current situation declined slightly.</p><p>2. Two Federal Reserve governors are confident in the economy, saying that even rate hike and the United States can avoid a recession.</p><p>Despite the possibility of the Federal Reserve rate hike by 75 basis points again next month, central bank officials believe the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is not a concern. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both acknowledged on Tuesday that the hottest inflation in 40 years must be cooled, but both insisted that there is still hope for a soft landing. In addition, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said that next month's meeting will discuss whether the rate hike will be 50 or 75 basis points, and the specific decision will depend on economic data.</p><p>3. The hot US housing market has cooled for the first time since 2021.</p><p>Data released on Tuesday showed that S&P<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 20.4% year-over-year in April, down from 20.6% the previous month. Craig Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, pointed out that the rise in U.S. home prices is showing initial but inconsistent signs of slowing. Mortgage rates have almost doubled since the end of 2021. Rising interest rates, coupled with high housing prices making them unaffordable for potential buyers, have also slowed down the real estate market in popular cities during the pandemic. The slowdown in the real estate market is having a ripple effect across the industry. Mortgage lenders expect business to decline, including Compass Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp.</a>Intermediary agencies, including..., are all laying off employees.</p><p>4. The OPEC+ alliance has fallen short of its crude oil production target by more than 500 million barrels since May 2020.</p><p>OPEC+ is supplying more than 500 million barrels less oil to the global market than it pledged, exacerbating concerns about the organization's ability to balance global markets. In May 2020, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies joined forces to coordinate production cuts in an effort to rebalance the global oil market. According to data from the organization's Joint Technical Committee, since then, OPEC+'s cumulative production has been 562 million barrels less than the level stipulated in the agreement. OPEC+'s compliance rate with the production cut agreement rose to 256% in May as member countries' daily production was 2.7 million barrels below the organization's collective target.</p><p>5. Türkiye agreed to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO and signed a trilateral memorandum.</p><p>On June 28 local time, after negotiations between the heads of government of Turkey, Sweden and Finland and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkey withdrew its resolution vetoing Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO and agreed to allow the two countries to join NATO. Following quadrilateral talks in Madrid, Spain, between NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Finnish President Niinistö, and Swedish Prime Minister Andersson, Turkey, Finland, and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding on Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO.</p><p>6. Putin signs bills legalizing parallel imports of goods</p><p>On June 28 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill legalizing parallel imports of goods. The bill, introduced by the Russian government, aims to authorize the government to identify goods that are not subject to exclusive rights protection clauses. After the bill is signed, Russian companies that import goods without the permission of the rights holder will be exempt from potential civil, administrative, and criminal liability.</p><p>Alexander Zhukov, a member of the Economic Policy Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, explained that the purpose of passing the law was \"to reduce the price increases of imported goods caused by the actions of unfriendly countries.\" The Russian State Duma's Economic Policy Committee also pointed out that this bill will not only protect the interests of consumers in Russia, but will also generally promote the development of the Russian economy under sanctions. In early May of this year, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade published a list of more than 50 categories of goods eligible for parallel import, including various types of goods such as plants, medicines, soaps, and weapons.</p><p>7. Russia plans to link its grain export tax formula to the ruble.</p><p>Russia plans to link the grain export tax formula to the ruble.</p><p>8. France lowers its economic growth forecast for this year as the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes up inflation.</p><p>The French government lowered its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, highlighting the constraints facing President Emmanuel Macron as he struggles to repair public finances battered by the coronavirus pandemic and provide support to households suffering from inflation. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the outlook for France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, has deteriorated significantly as soaring energy and food costs have dampened consumer spending. French Finance Ministry officials said the impact of the omicron variant on supply chains, which has driven up infection rates across much of Europe, has also dimmed the outlook.</p><p>9. Maxwell, a key figure in the Epstein case, was sentenced to 20 years in prison.</p><p>On June 28 local time, Ghislaine Maxwell, the ex-girlfriend of former U.S. billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, was sentenced to 20 years in prison by federal prosecutors on charges including helping Epstein sexually exploit and abuse underage women. The federal indictment alleges that Maxwell repeatedly recruited young women for sex trafficking for Epstein and received payment for it. Jeffrey Epstein is a former American billionaire who has close ties with Western high society. In July 2019, Epstein was charged with sex trafficking with minors and died mysteriously in prison a month later.</p><p>10. The First Minister of the Scottish government proposed a second independence referendum.</p><p>On the 28th local time, Scottish First Minister Sturgeon outlined his plan for a second independence referendum in the Scottish Parliament. She proposed in Parliament that a second independence referendum be held on October 19, 2023. The referendum question was the same as the one in the 2014 referendum: \"Should Scotland become an independent country?\" British Prime Minister Johnson said that day that Britain's top priority was to deal with economic pressures and soaring energy costs. The British government has previously stated that now is not the time for another referendum.</p><p>11. Sri Lankan Energy Minister visits Qatar to seek energy support</p><p>On June 28 local time, Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Kabi met with Sri Lankan Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera in the capital Doha. The two sides focused on energy issues, and Qatar expressed its intention to strengthen energy cooperation with Sri Lanka. Recently, Sri Lanka has been mired in an economic crisis, with large-scale shortages of fuels such as gasoline and diesel. To conserve energy, the Sri Lankan cabinet decided to provide fuel only for basic services from midnight on June 27 to July 10, while sending several ministerial-level officials to countries such as Russia and Qatar to seek energy support.</p><p>12. South Korean consumer confidence hit a more than one-year low in June due to inflation and rate hike.</p><p>According to data released by the Bank of Korea on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 in June from 102.6 in May, the lowest level since January 2021. An index below 100 indicates that more respondents hold pessimistic views than optimistic ones. South Korea is one of the countries most vulnerable to global inflationary pressures because it relies heavily on external sources for energy and other commodities.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The United States announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, banning new imports of Russian gold.</p><p>On June 28 local time, the U.S. government officially announced a series of new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on new imports of Russian gold. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement saying it will impose new sanctions on 70 Russian entities and 29 individuals, freezing all their property and property interests owned or controlled in the United States or through Americans. The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control has also banned the import of Russian gold into the United States. Meanwhile, on the 28th, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions against another 45 Russian entities and 29 individuals. The U.S. State Department also imposed visa restrictions on more than 500 Russian military officers and Russian officials.</p><p>2. Russia announces sanctions against Biden's wife and daughter.</p><p>On June 28, according to Sputnik News Agency, the Russian Foreign Ministry expanded its sanctions list against the United States, adding 25 Americans to the list of persons banned from entering the country, including the wife and daughter of US President Biden. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: \"In response to the expanding U.S. sanctions against Russian political and social figures, 25 U.S. citizens have been placed on a 'banned list,' including those responsible for formulating anti-Russian policies and family members of President Biden.\"</p><p>3. NATO Secretary General: Sanctions against Russia undoubtedly have an impact on energy prices.</p><p>On June 27 local time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a speech at the NATO Public Forum in Madrid, the capital of Spain, that the sanctions imposed on Russia have undeniably had an impact on energy prices, and that countries have paid a price for this. EU countries are trying to get rid of their dependence on Russian energy imports. He also announced NATO's first climate change goal, which aims to reduce carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.</p><p>4. German Chancellor: Hopes to continue dialogue with Putin</p><p>On June 28 local time, German Chancellor Scholz said in an interview that he hopes to continue dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Scholz stated that no new time has been agreed upon for the talks, but the need for mutual exchange remains even if opinions differ.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1146846681\" target=\"_blank\">Overseas short-selling institutions accuse Nio of engaging in \"accounting games\".</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, Grizzly Research, an overseas short-selling firm, released a short-selling report criticizing listed electric vehicle companies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>(NIO) used unconsolidated related parties to inflate its financial report data. As a recently popular stock in the electric vehicle sector, Nio Motors' stock price has doubled in the past month and a half, and its market capitalization of nearly $40 billion has made it one of the world's most valuable car companies. Grizzlies stated that in August 2020, Nio, industrial funds, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>After the company established Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd., and through subsequent investment, Nio currently holds 19.8% of the battery company's equity. Starting with the fourth quarter of 2020, Nio' financial results began to significantly exceed market average expectations. For example, Wall Street expected the company to lose 6 billion yuan in fiscal year 2021, but the final figure was only 3 billion yuan.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171146618\" target=\"_blank\">Warren Buffett has further increased his holdings in Occidental Petroleum, raising his stake to 16.4%.</a></p><p>According to the latest filings disclosed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Warren Buffett's investment companies...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway increased its stake again on June 23.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company purchased a total of 794,000 shares at prices ranging from $55.39 to $56.09 per share, spending approximately $44 million to increase its shareholding to 16.4%. Currently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>It holds a total of 153.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, valued at approximately $9.04 billion based on Monday's closing price of $58.90, making it Berkshire's sixth-largest holding.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170583209\" target=\"_blank\">Airbnb Announces Global Permanent Ban: Ban on \"Party\"</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">Airbnb</a>A permanent global ban on 'parties', including gatherings by public invitation, was announced on Tuesday. Two years ago, Airbnb imposed temporary restrictions on \"parties\". Airbnb said in a blog post: This temporary ban has proven effective. Since the policy was implemented in August 2020, the reporting rate of \"parties\" has decreased by 44% year-on-year.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247054379\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon imposes purchase restrictions on emergency contraceptives</a></p><p>Demand for birth control pills in the United States has skyrocketed as the U.S. Supreme Court formally announced last Friday that it had overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, stripping away the constitutional right to abortion. Amazon said on Tuesday that it is temporarily limiting each customer's purchase of emergency contraceptive pills to three pills to ensure fair access and continued supply for consumers. chain pharmacy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>They stated that they are planning to remove purchase restrictions.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2246705795\" target=\"_blank\">Shanghai Disneyland will reopen on June 30</a></p><p>June 28, Shanghai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>The resort's official WeChat account announced that Shanghai Disneyland will resume operations on June 30. In the initial phase of reopening, most attractions, rides, entertainment performances, shops, and restaurants within the park will remain open with limited visitors, and operational measures will be taken to maintain social distancing among visitors. Experiences such as the Explorer Canoe and Marvel Heroes Headquarters will remain temporarily closed. Tourists must bring a green \"Suishen code\" and a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours (from the sampling time) to enter the resort area. Tourists who only hold a nucleic acid sampling certificate within 24 hours but do not have a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours will not be allowed to enter the resort area.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247053910\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla lays off hundreds of employees in its autonomous driving division in California.</a></p><p>On June 29, it was reported that Tesla laid off hundreds of employees from its Autopilot team after closing a factory in California, one of the largest layoffs amid widespread layoffs. Sources said the laid-off employees had been notified on Tuesday.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1157047337\" target=\"_blank\">The world is guessing when the US will fall into recession, but Sister Wood: It's already started.</a></p><p>While Wall Street bigwigs are debating when the United States will fall into recession, Cathie Wood, nicknamed \"Sister Wood,\" believes that the United States has already fallen into an economic recession and admits that she underestimated the severity and persistence of inflation in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The S&P 500 returned to a bear market! Sister Wood shouts that a recession has arrived in the United States.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The S&P 500 returned to a bear market! Sister Wood shouts that a recession has arrived in the United States.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-29 07:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks closed lower overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.56%, the Nasdaq Composite down 2.98%, and the S&P 500 down 2.01%; ② Crude oil rose for three consecutive days to a two-week high, while gold hit a two-week low; ③ US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 16 months in June; ④ Türkiye agreed to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO and signed a trilateral memorandum. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed lower overnight, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 3%, and major technology stocks leading the decline.</p><p>Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.56% at 30,946.99 points. The Nasdaq fell 2.98% to 11,181.54 points; The S&P 500 fell 2.01% to 3,821.56 points.</p><p>Major tech stocks led the declines, with $AMD (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>)$(Chaowei Semiconductor) fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It closed down 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>-A fell by more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks saw mixed performance on Tuesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Surged 47%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index dropping 1.45% to close at 8,034 points. Travel service stocks surged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>It surged 47%, with Ctrip rising over 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>The group rose more than 7%. In terms of news, the National Health Commission released the ninth version of the COVID-19 prevention and control plan, adjusting the quarantine and control time for close contacts and inbound personnel from \"14+7\" to \"7+3\".</p><p>Regarding other Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell 3.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>It fell 3.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It fell 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 2.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.2%. In new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell 5.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 4.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automotive stocks fell more than 2% after short-selling firm Grizzly Research published a report on short selling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>The automaker claims the company emulates a Valeant-style accounting game, achieving its goals by exaggerating revenue and increasing net profit margins.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices generally closed higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.97%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed higher on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.35% and the UK's...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 0.97%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.64%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.3%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures closed 2% higher on Tuesday, hitting a near two-week high.</p><p>New York crude oil futures prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since mid-June. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.19, or 2%, to settle at $111.76 a barrel, the highest closing price since June 16.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that the relaxation of anti-pandemic policies in Asia helped oil prices rise for three consecutive days after a sharp decline in recent weeks. In addition, reports indicate that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are approaching their crude oil production capacity ceilings, which contrasts sharply with claims that the two countries are holding back on capacity and may even continue to limit production.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.2% on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price in nearly two weeks.</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price in nearly two weeks. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.60, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,821.20 an ounce, the lowest closing price on June 15.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 16 months in June, with inflationary pressures persisting.</p><p>The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in June as inflation continued to dampen Americans' economic outlook. Data released Tuesday showed that the World Business Association's consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 from a downward revision of 103.2 in May. The median expectation of economists surveyed was a drop to 100. As Americans become increasingly pessimistic about the economic, employment, and income outlook, indicators reflecting expectations for the next six months have fallen to their lowest level in nearly a decade. Indicators reflecting the current situation declined slightly.</p><p>2. Two Federal Reserve governors are confident in the economy, saying that even rate hike and the United States can avoid a recession.</p><p>Despite the possibility of the Federal Reserve rate hike by 75 basis points again next month, central bank officials believe the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is not a concern. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both acknowledged on Tuesday that the hottest inflation in 40 years must be cooled, but both insisted that there is still hope for a soft landing. In addition, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said that next month's meeting will discuss whether the rate hike will be 50 or 75 basis points, and the specific decision will depend on economic data.</p><p>3. The hot US housing market has cooled for the first time since 2021.</p><p>Data released on Tuesday showed that S&P<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 20.4% year-over-year in April, down from 20.6% the previous month. Craig Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, pointed out that the rise in U.S. home prices is showing initial but inconsistent signs of slowing. Mortgage rates have almost doubled since the end of 2021. Rising interest rates, coupled with high housing prices making them unaffordable for potential buyers, have also slowed down the real estate market in popular cities during the pandemic. The slowdown in the real estate market is having a ripple effect across the industry. Mortgage lenders expect business to decline, including Compass Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp.</a>Intermediary agencies, including..., are all laying off employees.</p><p>4. The OPEC+ alliance has fallen short of its crude oil production target by more than 500 million barrels since May 2020.</p><p>OPEC+ is supplying more than 500 million barrels less oil to the global market than it pledged, exacerbating concerns about the organization's ability to balance global markets. In May 2020, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies joined forces to coordinate production cuts in an effort to rebalance the global oil market. According to data from the organization's Joint Technical Committee, since then, OPEC+'s cumulative production has been 562 million barrels less than the level stipulated in the agreement. OPEC+'s compliance rate with the production cut agreement rose to 256% in May as member countries' daily production was 2.7 million barrels below the organization's collective target.</p><p>5. Türkiye agreed to allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO and signed a trilateral memorandum.</p><p>On June 28 local time, after negotiations between the heads of government of Turkey, Sweden and Finland and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkey withdrew its resolution vetoing Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO and agreed to allow the two countries to join NATO. Following quadrilateral talks in Madrid, Spain, between NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Finnish President Niinistö, and Swedish Prime Minister Andersson, Turkey, Finland, and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding on Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO.</p><p>6. Putin signs bills legalizing parallel imports of goods</p><p>On June 28 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill legalizing parallel imports of goods. The bill, introduced by the Russian government, aims to authorize the government to identify goods that are not subject to exclusive rights protection clauses. After the bill is signed, Russian companies that import goods without the permission of the rights holder will be exempt from potential civil, administrative, and criminal liability.</p><p>Alexander Zhukov, a member of the Economic Policy Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, explained that the purpose of passing the law was \"to reduce the price increases of imported goods caused by the actions of unfriendly countries.\" The Russian State Duma's Economic Policy Committee also pointed out that this bill will not only protect the interests of consumers in Russia, but will also generally promote the development of the Russian economy under sanctions. In early May of this year, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade published a list of more than 50 categories of goods eligible for parallel import, including various types of goods such as plants, medicines, soaps, and weapons.</p><p>7. Russia plans to link its grain export tax formula to the ruble.</p><p>Russia plans to link the grain export tax formula to the ruble.</p><p>8. France lowers its economic growth forecast for this year as the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes up inflation.</p><p>The French government lowered its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, highlighting the constraints facing President Emmanuel Macron as he struggles to repair public finances battered by the coronavirus pandemic and provide support to households suffering from inflation. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the outlook for France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, has deteriorated significantly as soaring energy and food costs have dampened consumer spending. French Finance Ministry officials said the impact of the omicron variant on supply chains, which has driven up infection rates across much of Europe, has also dimmed the outlook.</p><p>9. Maxwell, a key figure in the Epstein case, was sentenced to 20 years in prison.</p><p>On June 28 local time, Ghislaine Maxwell, the ex-girlfriend of former U.S. billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, was sentenced to 20 years in prison by federal prosecutors on charges including helping Epstein sexually exploit and abuse underage women. The federal indictment alleges that Maxwell repeatedly recruited young women for sex trafficking for Epstein and received payment for it. Jeffrey Epstein is a former American billionaire who has close ties with Western high society. In July 2019, Epstein was charged with sex trafficking with minors and died mysteriously in prison a month later.</p><p>10. The First Minister of the Scottish government proposed a second independence referendum.</p><p>On the 28th local time, Scottish First Minister Sturgeon outlined his plan for a second independence referendum in the Scottish Parliament. She proposed in Parliament that a second independence referendum be held on October 19, 2023. The referendum question was the same as the one in the 2014 referendum: \"Should Scotland become an independent country?\" British Prime Minister Johnson said that day that Britain's top priority was to deal with economic pressures and soaring energy costs. The British government has previously stated that now is not the time for another referendum.</p><p>11. Sri Lankan Energy Minister visits Qatar to seek energy support</p><p>On June 28 local time, Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Kabi met with Sri Lankan Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera in the capital Doha. The two sides focused on energy issues, and Qatar expressed its intention to strengthen energy cooperation with Sri Lanka. Recently, Sri Lanka has been mired in an economic crisis, with large-scale shortages of fuels such as gasoline and diesel. To conserve energy, the Sri Lankan cabinet decided to provide fuel only for basic services from midnight on June 27 to July 10, while sending several ministerial-level officials to countries such as Russia and Qatar to seek energy support.</p><p>12. South Korean consumer confidence hit a more than one-year low in June due to inflation and rate hike.</p><p>According to data released by the Bank of Korea on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 96.4 in June from 102.6 in May, the lowest level since January 2021. An index below 100 indicates that more respondents hold pessimistic views than optimistic ones. South Korea is one of the countries most vulnerable to global inflationary pressures because it relies heavily on external sources for energy and other commodities.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The United States announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, banning new imports of Russian gold.</p><p>On June 28 local time, the U.S. government officially announced a series of new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on new imports of Russian gold. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement saying it will impose new sanctions on 70 Russian entities and 29 individuals, freezing all their property and property interests owned or controlled in the United States or through Americans. The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control has also banned the import of Russian gold into the United States. Meanwhile, on the 28th, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions against another 45 Russian entities and 29 individuals. The U.S. State Department also imposed visa restrictions on more than 500 Russian military officers and Russian officials.</p><p>2. Russia announces sanctions against Biden's wife and daughter.</p><p>On June 28, according to Sputnik News Agency, the Russian Foreign Ministry expanded its sanctions list against the United States, adding 25 Americans to the list of persons banned from entering the country, including the wife and daughter of US President Biden. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: \"In response to the expanding U.S. sanctions against Russian political and social figures, 25 U.S. citizens have been placed on a 'banned list,' including those responsible for formulating anti-Russian policies and family members of President Biden.\"</p><p>3. NATO Secretary General: Sanctions against Russia undoubtedly have an impact on energy prices.</p><p>On June 27 local time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a speech at the NATO Public Forum in Madrid, the capital of Spain, that the sanctions imposed on Russia have undeniably had an impact on energy prices, and that countries have paid a price for this. EU countries are trying to get rid of their dependence on Russian energy imports. He also announced NATO's first climate change goal, which aims to reduce carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.</p><p>4. German Chancellor: Hopes to continue dialogue with Putin</p><p>On June 28 local time, German Chancellor Scholz said in an interview that he hopes to continue dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Scholz stated that no new time has been agreed upon for the talks, but the need for mutual exchange remains even if opinions differ.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1146846681\" target=\"_blank\">Overseas short-selling institutions accuse Nio of engaging in \"accounting games\".</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, Grizzly Research, an overseas short-selling firm, released a short-selling report criticizing listed electric vehicle companies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>(NIO) used unconsolidated related parties to inflate its financial report data. As a recently popular stock in the electric vehicle sector, Nio Motors' stock price has doubled in the past month and a half, and its market capitalization of nearly $40 billion has made it one of the world's most valuable car companies. Grizzlies stated that in August 2020, Nio, industrial funds, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>After the company established Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd., and through subsequent investment, Nio currently holds 19.8% of the battery company's equity. Starting with the fourth quarter of 2020, Nio' financial results began to significantly exceed market average expectations. For example, Wall Street expected the company to lose 6 billion yuan in fiscal year 2021, but the final figure was only 3 billion yuan.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171146618\" target=\"_blank\">Warren Buffett has further increased his holdings in Occidental Petroleum, raising his stake to 16.4%.</a></p><p>According to the latest filings disclosed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Warren Buffett's investment companies...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway increased its stake again on June 23.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company purchased a total of 794,000 shares at prices ranging from $55.39 to $56.09 per share, spending approximately $44 million to increase its shareholding to 16.4%. Currently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>It holds a total of 153.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, valued at approximately $9.04 billion based on Monday's closing price of $58.90, making it Berkshire's sixth-largest holding.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170583209\" target=\"_blank\">Airbnb Announces Global Permanent Ban: Ban on \"Party\"</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">Airbnb</a>A permanent global ban on 'parties', including gatherings by public invitation, was announced on Tuesday. Two years ago, Airbnb imposed temporary restrictions on \"parties\". Airbnb said in a blog post: This temporary ban has proven effective. Since the policy was implemented in August 2020, the reporting rate of \"parties\" has decreased by 44% year-on-year.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247054379\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon imposes purchase restrictions on emergency contraceptives</a></p><p>Demand for birth control pills in the United States has skyrocketed as the U.S. Supreme Court formally announced last Friday that it had overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, stripping away the constitutional right to abortion. Amazon said on Tuesday that it is temporarily limiting each customer's purchase of emergency contraceptive pills to three pills to ensure fair access and continued supply for consumers. chain pharmacy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>They stated that they are planning to remove purchase restrictions.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2246705795\" target=\"_blank\">Shanghai Disneyland will reopen on June 30</a></p><p>June 28, Shanghai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>The resort's official WeChat account announced that Shanghai Disneyland will resume operations on June 30. In the initial phase of reopening, most attractions, rides, entertainment performances, shops, and restaurants within the park will remain open with limited visitors, and operational measures will be taken to maintain social distancing among visitors. Experiences such as the Explorer Canoe and Marvel Heroes Headquarters will remain temporarily closed. Tourists must bring a green \"Suishen code\" and a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours (from the sampling time) to enter the resort area. Tourists who only hold a nucleic acid sampling certificate within 24 hours but do not have a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 72 hours will not be allowed to enter the resort area.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247053910\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla lays off hundreds of employees in its autonomous driving division in California.</a></p><p>On June 29, it was reported that Tesla laid off hundreds of employees from its Autopilot team after closing a factory in California, one of the largest layoffs amid widespread layoffs. Sources said the laid-off employees had been notified on Tuesday.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1157047337\" target=\"_blank\">The world is guessing when the US will fall into recession, but Sister Wood: It's already started.</a></p><p>While Wall Street bigwigs are debating when the United States will fall into recession, Cathie Wood, nicknamed \"Sister Wood,\" believes that the United States has already fallen into an economic recession and admits that she underestimated the severity and persistence of inflation in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123245128","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股收跌，道指跌1.56%，纳指跌幅2.98%，标普500跌2.01%；②原油连涨3日创两周新高，黄金创两周新低；③美国6月消费者信心降至16个月来最低；④土耳其同意瑞典和芬兰加入北约，并签署三方备忘录。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收跌 纳指跌近3%大型科技股跌幅居前隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道指跌1.56%，报30946.99点；纳指跌2.98%，报11181.54点；标普500指数跌2.01%，报3821.56点。大型科技股跌幅居前，$AMD(AMD)$(超威半导体)跌超6%，英伟达、亚马逊跌超5%，特斯拉收跌5%，微软、谷歌-A跌超3%，苹果跌近3%。2、热门中概股周二涨跌不一途牛暴涨47%热门中概股周二普遍下跌，纳斯达克金龙指数下跌1.45%，收于8034点。旅行服务概念股大涨，途牛暴涨47%，携程涨超10%，华住集团涨超7%。消息面，国家卫健委发布第九版新冠肺炎防控方案，将密切接触者、入境人员隔离管控时间从“14+7”调整为“7+3”。其他中概股方面，百度跌0.9%，京东和阿里巴巴跌1.7%，哔哩哔哩跌3.4%，腾讯跌3.5%，贝壳跌1.4%，拼多多跌2.8%，新东方跌3.2%。新能源汽车中，理想汽车跌5.6%，小鹏汽车跌4.8%，蔚来汽车跌超2%，此前做空机构Grizzly Research发表报告做空蔚来汽车，称该公司效仿Valeant式的会计游戏，通过夸大收入和提高净利润率来达到目标。3、欧股主要指数收盘普涨 英国富时100指数涨0.97%欧股主要指数周二收盘普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.35%，英国富时100指数涨0.97%，法国CAC40指数跌0.64%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.3%。4、纽约原油期货周二收高2% 创近两周新高纽约原油期货价格周二连续第三个交易日上涨，并升至6月中旬以来的最高水平。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格上涨2.19美元，涨幅为2%，收于每桶111.76美元，创6月16日以来的最高收盘价。分析师指出，亚洲抗疫政策的放松，帮助油价在最近几周出现大幅下跌之后连续三日上涨。此外，有报道称阿联酋酋长国与沙特正在接近原油产能上限，这与两国在产能方面有所保留、甚至还会继续限制产量的说法形成了鲜明的对比。5、纽约黄金期货周二收跌0.2% 创近两周来最低收盘价纽约黄金期货价格周二录得连续第二个交易日下跌，并创近两周来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌3.60美元，跌幅为0.2%，收于每盎司1821.20美元，为6月15日的最低收盘价。国际宏观1、美国6月消费者信心降至16个月来最低 通胀压力持续萦绕美国6月消费者信心指数降至2021年2月以来最低水平，因通胀继续抑制美国人对经济的展望。周二公布的数据显示，世界大型企业研究会消费者信心指数从5月份下修后的103.2降至98.7。接受调查的经济学家预期中值为下降至100。由于美国人对经济、就业和收入前景越来越悲观，反映未来6个月预期的指标降至近十年来最低位。反映当前状况的指标小幅下降。2、美联储两位行长对经济有信心 称即使加息美国也可以避免衰退尽管美联储存在下个月再次加息75个基点的可能，但央行官员认为美国经济陷入衰退的风险不足为虑。纽约联储行长John Williams和旧金山联储掌门Mary Daly周二都承认，必须给40年来最热的通胀降温，但也双双坚持认为软着陆仍有希望。此外，纽约联储行长John Williams表示，下个月的会议上将讨论是加息50个还是75个基点，具体决定要取决于经济数据。3、热的美国楼市出现2021年以来首次降温周二公布的数据显示，标普CoreLogic凯斯-席勒全美房价指数4月同比上涨20.4%，低于前月的20.6%。标普道琼斯指数公司董事总经理Craig Lazzara指出，美国房价涨势显现出了初步、但不一致的减速迹象。抵押贷款利率自2021年底以来已经几乎翻了一倍。利率上升，加上高企的房价令潜在买家感到难以负担，疫情中深受欢迎的大热城市房地产市场也开始放缓。房地产市场放缓正在整个行业产生连锁反应。抵押贷款机构预计业务将下滑，包括Compass Inc.和Redfin Corp.在内的中介机构都在裁员。4、OPEC+联盟自2020年5月以来的原油产量落后目标超过5亿桶OPEC+产油国联盟向全球市场供应的石油比其承诺的水平低了超过5亿桶，加剧了对该组织平衡全球市场能力的担忧。在2020年5月，石油输出国组织(OPEC)与盟友联手协调减产，以重新平衡全球石油市场。根据该组织联合技术委员会的数据，自那以来，OPEC+的累计产量比协议规定的水平少5.62亿桶。OPEC+对减产协议的履约率在5月份升至256%，因为成员国日产量比其该组织的集体目标低270万桶。5、土耳其同意瑞典和芬兰加入北约 并签署三方备忘录当地时间6月28日，在土耳其、瑞典和芬兰三国政府首脑与北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格进行谈判过后，土耳其撤回了否决瑞典和芬兰两国加入北约的决议，同意上述两国加入北约。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格同土耳其总统埃尔多安、芬兰总统尼尼斯托和瑞典首相安德松在西班牙马德里举行四方会谈后，土耳其、芬兰和瑞典签署了关于芬兰和瑞典加入北约的三方备忘录。6、普京签署商品平行进口合法化相关法案当地时间6月28日，俄罗斯总统普京签署了有关商品平行进口合法化的法案。该法案由俄罗斯政府提出，旨在授权政府确定不适用专属权利保护条款的商品，法案签署后未经权利持有人许可而进口商品的俄罗斯公司可以不承担可能的民事、行政和刑事责任。俄罗斯联邦委员会经济政策委员会成员亚历山大·茹科夫解释说，通过这项法案的目的是“降低由于不友好国家的行为造成的进口商品价格涨幅”。俄国家杜马经济政策委员会也指出，这项法案在保障俄国内消费者的利益的同时，也将总体上促进制裁条件下俄罗斯经济的发展。今年5月初，俄罗斯工贸部公布了50多类适用于平行进口的商品清单，其中包括植物、药物、肥皂、武器等多种不同类型的商品。7、俄罗斯计划将谷物出口税公式与卢布挂钩俄罗斯计划将谷物出口税公式与卢布挂钩。8、法国下调今年的经济增长预测 因俄乌冲突推升通胀率法国政府周二下调其对经济增长的预测，在总统马克龙正努力修复遭受新冠疫情打击的公共财政并为饱受通胀之苦的家庭提供支持之际，这凸显了他所面对的制约。自俄乌冲突以来，法国这一欧元区第二大经济体的前景已显著恶化，因为能源和食品成本飙升抑制了消费者支出。法国财政部官员表示，omicron变种推动欧洲大部分地区感染率上升对供应链的影响，也令前景黯淡。9、“爱泼斯坦案”关键人物马克斯韦尔被判处20年监禁当地时间6月28日，美国前亿万富翁杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的前女友吉丝兰·马克斯韦尔(Ghislaine Maxwell)因帮助爱泼斯坦对未成年女性进行性剥削和虐待等罪名被联邦检察官判处20年监禁。联邦起诉书称，马克斯韦尔多次为爱泼斯坦招募年轻女子进行性交易并从中得到报酬。杰弗里·爱泼斯坦是美国前亿万富翁，与西方上流社会交往甚密。2019年7月，爱泼斯坦因与未成年人性交易被起诉，一个月后在狱中离奇死亡。10、英国苏格兰政府首席大臣提出第二次独立公投计划当地时间28日，英国苏格兰政府首席大臣斯特金在苏格兰议会阐述了第二次独立公投计划。她在议会提议，于2023年10月19日举行第二次独立公投。公投问题与2014年公投的问题相同，即“苏格兰应该成为一个独立的国家吗？”英国首相约翰逊当天表示，英国的首要任务是应对经济压力和能源成本飙升。英国政府此前表示，现在不是进行另一次公投的时候。11、斯里兰卡能源部长访问卡塔尔 寻求能源支持当地时间6月28日，卡塔尔能源事务国务大臣萨阿德·卡比在首都多哈会见斯里兰卡电力和能源部长坎恰纳·维杰塞克拉，双方重点讨论了能源问题，卡方表示将加强与斯里兰卡的能源合作。近期，斯里兰卡深陷经济危机，汽油、柴油等燃料大规模短缺。为节省能源，斯里兰卡内阁决定从6月27日午夜至7月10日仅向基本服务提供燃料，同时派出数名部长级官员前往俄罗斯、卡塔尔等国寻求能源支持。12、韩国6月消费者信心创一年多新低 因通胀和加息影响据韩国央行周二发表的数据显示，6月消费者信心指数从5月的102.6降至96.4，创2021年1月以来最低。该指数低于100表明，持悲观看法的受访者多于持乐观看法的受访者。韩国是最容易受到全球通胀压力影响的国家之一，因为其在能源和其他大宗商品方面严重依赖外部来源。俄乌局势1、美国公布新一轮对俄制裁 禁止新进口俄罗斯黄金当地时间6月28日，美国政府正式宣布对俄罗斯采取一系列新制裁措施，包括禁止新进口俄罗斯黄金。美国财政部发表声明称，将对俄罗斯70个实体和29名个人实施新的制裁，其在美国的或通过美国人拥有或控制的所有财产和财产权益均被冻结。美财政部外国资产控制办公室还禁止将俄罗斯的黄金进口到美国。同时，美国国务院28日宣布对俄罗斯另外45个实体和29名个人实施制裁。美国国务院还对500多名俄罗斯军官和俄罗斯官员实施签证限制。2、俄罗斯宣布制裁拜登妻子和女儿6月28日，据俄罗斯卫星通讯社报道，俄罗斯外交部扩大对美制裁名单，向禁止入境人员名单中新增了25名美国人，其中包括美国总统拜登的妻子和女儿。俄外交部声明说：“作为针对美国对俄政治和社会人士不断扩大制裁的回应，25名美国公民被列入‘被禁名单’，其中包括负责制定反俄方针的人员以及拜登总统的家庭成员。”3、北约秘书长：制裁俄罗斯无疑对能源价格存在影响当地时间6月27日，北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格在西班牙首都马德里举行的北约公共论坛演讲中表示，对俄罗斯进行的制裁对于能源价格产生了影响，这是不可否认的，各国为此付出了代价，欧盟各国正设法摆脱对俄罗斯进口能源的依赖。他同时宣布了北约首个应对气候变化的目标，北约计划到2030年实现减少40%的碳排放量的目标，到2050年实现碳中和。4、德国总理：希望继续与普京进行对话当地时间6月28日，德国总理朔尔茨在接受采访时表示，希望继续与俄罗斯总统普京进行对话。朔尔茨表示，眼下没有约定新的会谈时间，不过即使意见不同，展开相互交流的必要性也仍然存在公司新闻1、海外做空机构指责蔚来搞“会计游戏”当地时间周二，海外做空机构灰熊(Grizzly Research)发表做空报告，指责电动车上市公司蔚来(NIO)通过未合并关联方做高财报数据。作为近期热门的电动车赛道股，蔚来汽车的股价在过去一个半月里翻了一番，接近400亿美元的市值也令其成为全球最值钱的汽车公司之一。灰熊表示，2020年8月蔚来、产业基金和宁德时代等公司组建了武汉蔚能电池资产有限公司，经过后续投资，目前蔚来掌握电池公司19.8%的股权。后续从2020年四季报开始，蔚来财报业绩开始大幅超出市场平均预期。举例而言，2021财年华尔街预期公司亏损60亿人民币，但最终的数据只有30亿。2、巴菲特再次加仓西方石油将持股比例提升至16.4%据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的最新文件显示，巴菲特旗下投资公司伯克希尔哈撒韦于6月23日再度增持西方石油股票，以每股55.39-56.09美元的价格，合计买入79.4万股股票，斥资约4400万美元，持股比例提升至16.4%。目前，伯克希尔共持有西方石油总计1.535亿股，按周一收盘价58.90美元计算，持股价值约为90.4亿美元，为伯克希尔第六大持仓股。3、爱彼迎宣布全球性永久禁令：禁止“派对”爱彼迎周二宣布了一项永久性全球“派对”禁令，包括公开邀请的聚会。两年前，爱彼迎曾对“派对”进行了临时限制。爱彼迎在一篇博客文章中称：这项临时禁令已被证明是有效的。自2020年8月实施这项政策以来，“派对”的报告率同比下降了44%。4、亚马逊对紧急避孕药实行限购随着美国最高法院上周五正式宣布推翻了1973年“罗诉韦德案”(Roe v. Wade)的裁决，取消宪法规定的堕胎权，美国避孕药需求快速飙升。亚马逊周二表示，暂时将每名顾客的紧急避孕药购买量限制在3片，以确保消费者的公平获取和对该药品的持续供应。连锁药店CVS健康表示，正在计划取消购买限制。5、上海迪士尼乐园将于6月30日重新开放6月28日，上海迪士尼度假区官方公众号发布公告，上海迪士尼乐园将于6月30日恢复运营。恢复运营初期，乐园内大部分景点、游乐项目、娱乐演出、商店及餐厅将在限流基础上开放，并采取运营措施保持游客社交距离。探险家独木舟、漫威英雄总部等体验项目暂时保持关闭。游客需持绿色“随申码”及72小时内(从采样时间起算)核酸检测阴性证明进入度假区，仅持有24小时内核酸采样证明而无72小时内核酸检测阴性证明的游客将不能进入度假区。6、特斯拉在加州裁减数百名自动驾驶部门员工6月29日消息，由于特斯拉关闭了美国加州的一处工厂，该公司裁掉了其自动驾驶(Autopilot)团队的数百名员工，这是该公司广泛裁员情况下规模较大的裁员之一。 消息人士称，被裁员工已经在周二得到通知。7、世界都在猜美国什么时候陷入衰退，木头姐：已经开始了就在华尔街的大佬们为美国到底什么时候陷入衰退争论不休的时候，“木头姐”Cathie Wood则认为，美国已经陷入经济衰退，她承认自己低估了美国通胀的严重性和持续性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046450353,"gmtCreate":1656378993672,"gmtModify":1676535817654,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046450353","repostId":"2246874171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2246874171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656366224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2246874171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-28 05:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | Goldman Sachs Says US Interest Rate Market Underestimated Recession Risk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2246874171","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"白宫：七国集团将对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁当地时间6月27日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统拜登当日将与七国集团领导人和乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面，七国集团将发表对俄罗斯的新制裁措施。欧盟考虑降低天然气需求 以应对俄罗斯供应中断风险俄罗斯供应减少对欧盟在应对俄乌冲突方面的团结性构成考验之际，欧盟正在寻找降低天然气需求的方法，以避免能源市场各自为政。瑞信集团因未能阻止毒贩的洗钱行为而受到指控。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>U.S. interest rate markets underestimated the risk of economic recession.</b><b>2. White House: G7 to impose further sanctions on Russia</b><b>3. The EU is considering reducing natural gas demand to address the risk of supply disruptions from Russia.</b><b>4. US second-hand home sales unexpectedly rose month-on-month in May, temporarily ending a six-month downward trend.</b><b>5. The European Central Bank, which has been planning its first rate hike in over a decade, announced that it will postpone the announcement of its decision starting next month.</b><b>6. The Swiss Supreme Criminal Court issued a historic ruling, convicting Credit Suisse of money laundering.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Goldman Sachs: US interest rate market underestimates the risk of economic recession</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists believe that the U.S. market has underestimated the risk of a recession in 2024, and the bank has joined the recent trend of betting on a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's policy.</p><p>In a report on June 24, strategist Praveen Korapaty said that although market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate have fallen to a limited decline in early 2023 in recent weeks, investors are still underestimating the risk of recession in their pricing of the 2024 Federal Funds rate. High inflation risks further complicate the impact of recession concerns on the slope of the yield curve.</p><p>To profit from this mispricing, Goldman Sachs recommends betting on the flattening curves of the March 2023 and March 2024 Eurodollar contracts, selling long positions in the March 2023 futures contracts, and going long on the March 2024 futures contracts.</p><p>They wrote: \"We believe that this structure should perform well in the event of the onset of an economic recession, with risks arising from an immediate recession or a very long interest rate hike cycle.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10668f7833f1d0e8a715914e4aa245d9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>White House: G7 to impose further sanctions on Russia</b></p><p>On June 27 local time, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Biden will meet with G7 leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky that day, and the G7 will announce new sanctions against Russia.</p><p>The White House statement said that the major new sanctions that the United States will implement in coordination with the G7 include: sanctions on hundreds of individuals and entities, tariffs on hundreds of Russian products worth billions of dollars, and sanctions targeting Russian military production and supply chains.</p><p>G7 leaders will adjust and expand targeted sanctions to further restrict Russia's access to critical services and technologies, limit Russia's participation in global markets, and further combat its circumvention attempts. In addition, the G7 has pledged budgetary and other support to Ukraine.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5825690a829be73bbba9102468391a83\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The EU is considering reducing natural gas demand to address the risk of supply disruptions from Russia.</b></p><p>The European Union is looking for ways to reduce gas demand to avoid fragmented energy markets as reduced Russian supplies test its unity in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>Increased gas supply disruptions following EU sanctions against Russia have prompted member states to step up winter preparations and seek to replenish depleted inventories. At a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson urged the implementation of more energy-saving measures and improved efficiency to reduce the likelihood of implementing a natural gas rationing system. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned that the country could face a natural gas shortage and called for European unity.</p><p>“We are working to avoid or minimize potential cuts, and the preparedness plan scheduled to be launched in July will propose preventive measures to reduce demand,” Simson told reporters after the ministerial meeting.</p><p>The biggest challenge facing the EU is ensuring there are sufficient reserves to cope with peak winter heating and electricity demand. Sufficient reserves can also act as a buffer, allowing natural gas to be transported across borders within the EU to ensure adequate supplies for all member states. If the crisis escalates, countries can help each other.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e0d8823968f5f609d0e74bcc8a643\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. secondhand home sales unexpectedly rose month-on-month in May, temporarily ending a six-month downward trend.</b></p><p>A measure of U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose for the first time in seven months in May, but it was only a brief respite for the housing market amid continuously rising mortgage rates.</p><p>According to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.7% month-over-month to 99.9% in October. The median expectation of economists surveyed was a 4% decline.</p><p>The number of unadjusted second-hand housing contracts decreased by 12% year-on-year.</p><p>NAR points out that, based on the median price of a single-family home calculated at a 10% down payment, monthly mortgage loans have increased by about $800 since the beginning of this year.</p><p>In a statement, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, said, \"Although secondhand home sales increased slightly compared to last month, the real estate market is clearly undergoing a transformation.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b6b28db1344e807a32223ed96eb0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The European Central Bank, which has been preparing for its first rate hike in more than a decade, announced that it will postpone the announcement of its decision starting next month.</b></p><p>If you're waiting for the European Central Bank's first rate hike in over a decade, you'll have to wait an extra 30 minutes.</p><p>According to a statement released on Monday, the European Central Bank's Governing Council's next decision and future announcements will be delayed by half an hour, to 2:15 p.m. Frankfurt time. Governor Christine Lagarde's press conference will also be delayed by 15 minutes - which will start at 2.45pm.</p><p>Lagarde and her colleagues \"foreshadowed\" that a 25 basis point rate hike at the July 21 meeting would be the first rate hike since 2011.</p><p>A spokesperson for the European Central Bank called the change a \"minor technical adjustment\" and declined to comment.</p><p>Reasons may include needing more time to prepare the announcement after making a decision, or wanting to avoid the governor's opening remarks coinciding with the release of U.S. economic data (U.S. data is usually released at 2:30 a.m. Frankfurt time on Thursdays). Or it could be that officials simply want a longer lunch break.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d607c5341e8111e8ba68b791ffda10e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Switzerland's Supreme Criminal Court has issued a historic ruling, convicting Credit Suisse of money laundering.</b></p><p>Cocaine, cash hiding, a down-on-his-luck Bulgarian wrestler... these details captured the attention of the Swiss financial industry during the days of the trial in February. Credit Suisse Group has been accused of failing to stop money laundering by drug traffickers.</p><p>On Monday afternoon, the Swiss Supreme Criminal Court delivered its verdict, making Credit Suisse the first major bank in Swiss history to be convicted in a criminal case. The former Credit Suisse customer relationship manager involved in the case was found guilty of money laundering and sentenced to 20 months in prison with a suspended sentence.</p><p>Credit Suisse faces a fine of 2 million Swiss francs ($2.1 million) and is required to pay 19 million Swiss francs in damages, equivalent to the amount of money laundering it condoned.</p><p>The verdict is another blow to Credit Suisse's reputation, which had previously argued that the crimes dated back to an era when its compliance standards were less stringent. Credit Suisse has been struggling with a series of scandals, and its share price has fallen to near record lows so far. It may face criminal charges for the second time this year in another unrelated case.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | Goldman Sachs Says US Interest Rate Market Underestimated Recession Risk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | Goldman Sachs Says US Interest Rate Market Underestimated Recession Risk\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-28 05:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>U.S. interest rate markets underestimated the risk of economic recession.</b><b>2. White House: G7 to impose further sanctions on Russia</b><b>3. The EU is considering reducing natural gas demand to address the risk of supply disruptions from Russia.</b><b>4. US second-hand home sales unexpectedly rose month-on-month in May, temporarily ending a six-month downward trend.</b><b>5. The European Central Bank, which has been planning its first rate hike in over a decade, announced that it will postpone the announcement of its decision starting next month.</b><b>6. The Swiss Supreme Criminal Court issued a historic ruling, convicting Credit Suisse of money laundering.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Goldman Sachs: US interest rate market underestimates the risk of economic recession</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists believe that the U.S. market has underestimated the risk of a recession in 2024, and the bank has joined the recent trend of betting on a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's policy.</p><p>In a report on June 24, strategist Praveen Korapaty said that although market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate have fallen to a limited decline in early 2023 in recent weeks, investors are still underestimating the risk of recession in their pricing of the 2024 Federal Funds rate. High inflation risks further complicate the impact of recession concerns on the slope of the yield curve.</p><p>To profit from this mispricing, Goldman Sachs recommends betting on the flattening curves of the March 2023 and March 2024 Eurodollar contracts, selling long positions in the March 2023 futures contracts, and going long on the March 2024 futures contracts.</p><p>They wrote: \"We believe that this structure should perform well in the event of the onset of an economic recession, with risks arising from an immediate recession or a very long interest rate hike cycle.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10668f7833f1d0e8a715914e4aa245d9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>White House: G7 to impose further sanctions on Russia</b></p><p>On June 27 local time, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Biden will meet with G7 leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky that day, and the G7 will announce new sanctions against Russia.</p><p>The White House statement said that the major new sanctions that the United States will implement in coordination with the G7 include: sanctions on hundreds of individuals and entities, tariffs on hundreds of Russian products worth billions of dollars, and sanctions targeting Russian military production and supply chains.</p><p>G7 leaders will adjust and expand targeted sanctions to further restrict Russia's access to critical services and technologies, limit Russia's participation in global markets, and further combat its circumvention attempts. In addition, the G7 has pledged budgetary and other support to Ukraine.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5825690a829be73bbba9102468391a83\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The EU is considering reducing natural gas demand to address the risk of supply disruptions from Russia.</b></p><p>The European Union is looking for ways to reduce gas demand to avoid fragmented energy markets as reduced Russian supplies test its unity in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>Increased gas supply disruptions following EU sanctions against Russia have prompted member states to step up winter preparations and seek to replenish depleted inventories. At a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson urged the implementation of more energy-saving measures and improved efficiency to reduce the likelihood of implementing a natural gas rationing system. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned that the country could face a natural gas shortage and called for European unity.</p><p>“We are working to avoid or minimize potential cuts, and the preparedness plan scheduled to be launched in July will propose preventive measures to reduce demand,” Simson told reporters after the ministerial meeting.</p><p>The biggest challenge facing the EU is ensuring there are sufficient reserves to cope with peak winter heating and electricity demand. Sufficient reserves can also act as a buffer, allowing natural gas to be transported across borders within the EU to ensure adequate supplies for all member states. If the crisis escalates, countries can help each other.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e0d8823968f5f609d0e74bcc8a643\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. secondhand home sales unexpectedly rose month-on-month in May, temporarily ending a six-month downward trend.</b></p><p>A measure of U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose for the first time in seven months in May, but it was only a brief respite for the housing market amid continuously rising mortgage rates.</p><p>According to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.7% month-over-month to 99.9% in October. The median expectation of economists surveyed was a 4% decline.</p><p>The number of unadjusted second-hand housing contracts decreased by 12% year-on-year.</p><p>NAR points out that, based on the median price of a single-family home calculated at a 10% down payment, monthly mortgage loans have increased by about $800 since the beginning of this year.</p><p>In a statement, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, said, \"Although secondhand home sales increased slightly compared to last month, the real estate market is clearly undergoing a transformation.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b6b28db1344e807a32223ed96eb0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The European Central Bank, which has been preparing for its first rate hike in more than a decade, announced that it will postpone the announcement of its decision starting next month.</b></p><p>If you're waiting for the European Central Bank's first rate hike in over a decade, you'll have to wait an extra 30 minutes.</p><p>According to a statement released on Monday, the European Central Bank's Governing Council's next decision and future announcements will be delayed by half an hour, to 2:15 p.m. Frankfurt time. Governor Christine Lagarde's press conference will also be delayed by 15 minutes - which will start at 2.45pm.</p><p>Lagarde and her colleagues \"foreshadowed\" that a 25 basis point rate hike at the July 21 meeting would be the first rate hike since 2011.</p><p>A spokesperson for the European Central Bank called the change a \"minor technical adjustment\" and declined to comment.</p><p>Reasons may include needing more time to prepare the announcement after making a decision, or wanting to avoid the governor's opening remarks coinciding with the release of U.S. economic data (U.S. data is usually released at 2:30 a.m. Frankfurt time on Thursdays). Or it could be that officials simply want a longer lunch break.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d607c5341e8111e8ba68b791ffda10e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Switzerland's Supreme Criminal Court has issued a historic ruling, convicting Credit Suisse of money laundering.</b></p><p>Cocaine, cash hiding, a down-on-his-luck Bulgarian wrestler... these details captured the attention of the Swiss financial industry during the days of the trial in February. Credit Suisse Group has been accused of failing to stop money laundering by drug traffickers.</p><p>On Monday afternoon, the Swiss Supreme Criminal Court delivered its verdict, making Credit Suisse the first major bank in Swiss history to be convicted in a criminal case. The former Credit Suisse customer relationship manager involved in the case was found guilty of money laundering and sentenced to 20 months in prison with a suspended sentence.</p><p>Credit Suisse faces a fine of 2 million Swiss francs ($2.1 million) and is required to pay 19 million Swiss francs in damages, equivalent to the amount of money laundering it condoned.</p><p>The verdict is another blow to Credit Suisse's reputation, which had previously argued that the crimes dated back to an era when its compliance standards were less stringent. Credit Suisse has been struggling with a series of scandals, and its share price has fallen to near record lows so far. It may face criminal charges for the second time this year in another unrelated case.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-28/doc-imizirav0875537.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GS":"高盛","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-28/doc-imizirav0875537.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2246874171","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、高盛：美国利率市场低估了经济衰退风险2、白宫：七国集团将对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁3、欧盟考虑降低天然气需求 以应对俄罗斯供应中断风险4、美国5月份二手房签约量环比意外上升 暂时结束六个月下行势头5、酝酿十余年来首次加息的欧洲央行宣布自下个月起延后决议公布时间6、瑞士最高刑事法庭作出历史性裁决 瑞信洗钱案罪名成立高盛：美国利率市场低估了经济衰退风险高盛的利率策略师认为美国市场低估了2024年经济衰退的风险，该行加入了近期热门的押注美联储政策转鸽的行列。策略师Praveen Korapaty在6月24日的报告中表示，虽然过去几周市场对美联储政策利率的预期降至2023年初有限下行，但投资者对2024年联邦基金利率的定价仍然低估了衰退风险。通胀风险高企令衰退担忧对收益率曲线斜率的影响变得更为复杂。为了从市场这种错误定价中获利，高盛建议押注2023年3月和2024年3月欧洲美元合约曲线趋平，卖出2023年3月期货合约的看涨头寸，做多2024年3月期货合约。他们写道：“我们认为，这种结构应该在经济衰退开始情况下表现不错，风险来自立即衰退或是升息周期非常长”。白宫：七国集团将对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁当地时间6月27日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统拜登当日将与七国集团领导人和乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面，七国集团将发表对俄罗斯的新制裁措施。白宫声明称，美国将与七国集团协调实施的重大新制裁包括：对数百名个人和实体实施制裁，对数百种价值数十亿美元的俄罗斯产品征收关税，以及针对俄罗斯军事生产和供应链实施制裁。七国集团领导人将调整并扩大有针对性的制裁，以进一步限制俄罗斯获得关键服务和技术，限制俄罗斯参与全球市场，进一步打击其规避企图。此外，七国集团承诺为乌克兰提供预算支持和其他支持。欧盟考虑降低天然气需求 以应对俄罗斯供应中断风险俄罗斯供应减少对欧盟在应对俄乌冲突方面的团结性构成考验之际，欧盟正在寻找降低天然气需求的方法，以避免能源市场各自为政。欧盟对俄罗斯实施制裁后，天然气供应中断的增加促使各成员国加强了为冬季做准备的工作，寻求补充已被耗尽的库存。在周一于卢森堡举行的部长级会议上，欧盟能源专员Kadri Simson敦促实施更多节能措施和提高效率来降低实施天然气配给制的可能性。德国经济部长Robert Habeck警告称该国可能出现天然气短缺，并呼吁欧洲团结一致。“我们正在努力避免或尽量减少潜在的削减，计划于7月推出的准备方案将提出预防性减少需求的措施，”Simson在部长级会议后告诉记者。欧盟面临的最大挑战是确保有足够的储备来应对冬季取暖和电力需求高峰。充足的储备还可以起到缓冲作用，让天然气能够在欧盟内部跨国输送，以确保所有成员国都供应充足。如果危机升级，各国可以互相帮助。美国5月份二手房签约量环比意外上升 暂时结束六个月下行势头一项衡量美国二手房签约量的指标5月份意外出现七个月来的首次上升，但是对于房贷利率持续升高环境下的楼市而言，这不过是一次短暂的喘息而已。据美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周一公布的数据，10月份二手房签约量环比增长0.7%至99.9。接受调查的经济学家中值预期为下降4%。未经调整的二手房签约量同比下降12%。NAR指出，基于按10%首付比例计算的单户型住宅价格中值 ，自今年年初以来，每月按揭贷款增加了约800美元。NAR的首席经济学家Lawrence Yun在声明中表示，“尽管二手房销量较上月小幅增长，但房地产市场显然正在经历转型”。酝酿十余年来首次加息的欧洲央行宣布自下个月起延后决议公布时间如果你在等待欧洲央行十多年来的首次加息，那你得多等30分钟了。根据周一发布的声明，欧洲央行管理委员会的下一次决定和未来的公告将推迟半个小时发布，即延后到法兰克福时间下午2：15发布。行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的新闻发布会也将推迟15分钟--将从下午2：45开始。拉加德和她的同事们“预告”称，可能在7月21日的会议上加息25个基点，将是2011年以来的首次加息。欧洲央行的一位发言人称这个变化是“微小的技术调整”，未就此发表评论。原因可能包括：在做出决定后需要更多时间来准备公告，或是希望避免行长开场讲话与美国经济数据发布相重合（美国数据经常在周四法兰克福时间2：30公布）。或者，也有可能是官员们只是希望能有更长的午休时间。瑞士最高刑事法庭作出历史性裁决 瑞信洗钱案罪名成立可卡因，藏匿现金，运气不佳的保加利亚摔角手……在2月庭审的几天里，这些细节吸引了瑞士金融业的关注。瑞信集团因未能阻止毒贩的洗钱行为而受到指控。周一下午，瑞士最高刑事法庭做出判决，瑞信成为瑞士历史上第一家在刑事案件中被判定有罪的大型银行。涉案的前瑞信客户关系经理被裁定洗钱罪名成立，入狱20个月，缓期执行。瑞信面临200万瑞郎（210万美元）的罚款，并被要求赔偿1900万瑞郎，相当于该行纵容的洗钱金额。这一判决是对瑞信声誉的又一沉重打击，该行此前辩称犯罪的发生时间要追溯到该行合规标准不那么严格的时代。瑞信一直在努力应对一系列丑闻，其股价迄今跌至纪录低点附近，可能今年会因为另一起与本案无关的案件第二次面临刑事指控。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"GS":1,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046947533,"gmtCreate":1656293028522,"gmtModify":1676535800161,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046947533","repostId":"1165038670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165038670","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656285455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165038670?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 07:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This Week's Preview | Powell Joins Hands with Key US Inflation Data PCE","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165038670","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (June 27-July 1):</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>The preliminary month-on-month reading of US wholesale inventories in May, the final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the US core PCE price index in May, the number of US initial jobless claims, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be released successively.<b>Regarding financial reports:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, and others will release their financial reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Stock Connect will be suspended. The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and will last for two days; Tencent held a press conference on Monday to launch SPARK 2022. In addition,<b>This week, we will continue to focus on speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and San Francisco Fed President Daley.</b>This allows us to glimpse the Federal Reserve's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27th: China's May annualized profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, preliminary US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Monday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release the annualized profit rate of its industrial enterprises above designated size in May; The preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May and the EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 17 have been released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Analysts believe that companies are sticking to their capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to alleviate the burden of high inflation and a tight labor market. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider their current investment pace later this year, given rising interest rates and cooling expectations of economic activity. A preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May will be released on June 27.<b>The market currently expects 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>Regarding events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Games launch event held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L'Occitane</a>The financial report will be released on the same day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Graffiti Intelligence-W</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Regarding important meetings,</b>Amidst numerous crises, the G7 summit was held from June 26 to 28 at the Elmo Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The summit covered topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers point out that against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the G7 will face its most severe challenges and crises in years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28th: Preliminary US May wholesale inventory month-on-month rate, US April S&P/CS20 Major Cities Home Price Index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tuesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release preliminary month-on-month figures for U.S. wholesale inventories in May, as well as the S&P/CS20 major city home price index for April.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventory and represents resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers/importers and retailers, and their inventory situation can be used as one of the leading economic indicators. Rapid growth in wholesale inventory indicates that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic outlook.<b>The preliminary month-on-month rate of U.S. wholesale inventories for May will be released on June 28, and a significant increase is not expected given the drag on the economy caused by the pandemic.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>The two-day NATO summit has opened, and discussions are expected to focus on the Ukraine issue, which investors should also pay attention to. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain, from June 29 to 30. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss increasing troop presence in the eastern EU region bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is expected to discuss Türkiye's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Likin Technology</a>Release financial reports.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, June 29th: US API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24th, final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, speeches by Fed Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wednesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter.</p><p>The three-year compound annual growth rate of real GDP in the United States declined from 1.9% to 1.56% in the first quarter of 2022. Imports significantly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound annual growth rate as high as 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, higher than the level for the whole of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all declined slightly, the compound annual growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound annual growth rate of private investment saw the largest decline.<b>The final annualized quarterly rate of real U.S. GDP for the first quarter will be released on June 29, and is expected to remain relatively low.</b>In addition,<b>Changes in U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 24 are also worth investors' attention.</b></p><p>U.S. API crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 5.607 million barrels in the week ending June 17, marking the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week ending April 8, 2022. The expected decrease was 1.433 million barrels, compared to an increase of 736,000 barrels in the previous week. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>Data for the latest cycle will be released on June 29, and the increase is expected to continue.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens delivered speeches at the ECB forum.</p><p>In 2022, FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>Daly, a 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President, delivered a speech.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsports</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Financial reports will be released.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">Weili Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrun Cloud</a>The lottery results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30th: China's official manufacturing PMI, US May core PCE price index, US initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, suspension of A-share Stock Connect trading</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that this data will rebound further as China gradually recovers from the pandemic.</b>The United States will release data on the May core PCE price index annualized rate and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Among them,<b>The US core PCE price index for May is of paramount importance.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Investors should pay close attention to the speech by 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, northbound trading was closed due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1st: Hong Kong stock market closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-Stock Connect trading suspended, China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US June Markit Manufacturing PMI final reading, US June ISM Manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday is<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and A-share Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>Regarding economic data,<b>Investors should pay attention to China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the final reading of the US June Markit Manufacturing PMI, and the US June ISM Manufacturing PMI.</b></p><p>In addition to the key data and major events mentioned above, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global pandemic, which is expected to affect the future trend of financial markets.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Week's Preview | Powell Joins Hands with Key US Inflation Data PCE</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Week's Preview | Powell Joins Hands with Key US Inflation Data PCE\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-27 07:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (June 27-July 1):</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>The preliminary month-on-month reading of US wholesale inventories in May, the final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the US core PCE price index in May, the number of US initial jobless claims, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be released successively.<b>Regarding financial reports:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, and others will release their financial reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Stock Connect will be suspended. The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and will last for two days; Tencent held a press conference on Monday to launch SPARK 2022. In addition,<b>This week, we will continue to focus on speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and San Francisco Fed President Daley.</b>This allows us to glimpse the Federal Reserve's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27th: China's May annualized profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, preliminary US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Monday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release the annualized profit rate of its industrial enterprises above designated size in May; The preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May and the EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 17 have been released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Analysts believe that companies are sticking to their capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to alleviate the burden of high inflation and a tight labor market. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider their current investment pace later this year, given rising interest rates and cooling expectations of economic activity. A preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May will be released on June 27.<b>The market currently expects 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>Regarding events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Games launch event held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L'Occitane</a>The financial report will be released on the same day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Graffiti Intelligence-W</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Regarding important meetings,</b>Amidst numerous crises, the G7 summit was held from June 26 to 28 at the Elmo Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The summit covered topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers point out that against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the G7 will face its most severe challenges and crises in years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28th: Preliminary US May wholesale inventory month-on-month rate, US April S&P/CS20 Major Cities Home Price Index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tuesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release preliminary month-on-month figures for U.S. wholesale inventories in May, as well as the S&P/CS20 major city home price index for April.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventory and represents resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers/importers and retailers, and their inventory situation can be used as one of the leading economic indicators. Rapid growth in wholesale inventory indicates that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic outlook.<b>The preliminary month-on-month rate of U.S. wholesale inventories for May will be released on June 28, and a significant increase is not expected given the drag on the economy caused by the pandemic.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>The two-day NATO summit has opened, and discussions are expected to focus on the Ukraine issue, which investors should also pay attention to. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain, from June 29 to 30. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss increasing troop presence in the eastern EU region bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is expected to discuss Türkiye's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Likin Technology</a>Release financial reports.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, June 29th: US API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24th, final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, speeches by Fed Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wednesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter.</p><p>The three-year compound annual growth rate of real GDP in the United States declined from 1.9% to 1.56% in the first quarter of 2022. Imports significantly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound annual growth rate as high as 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, higher than the level for the whole of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all declined slightly, the compound annual growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound annual growth rate of private investment saw the largest decline.<b>The final annualized quarterly rate of real U.S. GDP for the first quarter will be released on June 29, and is expected to remain relatively low.</b>In addition,<b>Changes in U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 24 are also worth investors' attention.</b></p><p>U.S. API crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 5.607 million barrels in the week ending June 17, marking the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week ending April 8, 2022. The expected decrease was 1.433 million barrels, compared to an increase of 736,000 barrels in the previous week. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>Data for the latest cycle will be released on June 29, and the increase is expected to continue.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens delivered speeches at the ECB forum.</p><p>In 2022, FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>Daly, a 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President, delivered a speech.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsports</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Financial reports will be released.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">Weili Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrun Cloud</a>The lottery results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30th: China's official manufacturing PMI, US May core PCE price index, US initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, suspension of A-share Stock Connect trading</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that this data will rebound further as China gradually recovers from the pandemic.</b>The United States will release data on the May core PCE price index annualized rate and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Among them,<b>The US core PCE price index for May is of paramount importance.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Investors should pay close attention to the speech by 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, northbound trading was closed due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1st: Hong Kong stock market closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-Stock Connect trading suspended, China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US June Markit Manufacturing PMI final reading, US June ISM Manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday is<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and A-share Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>Regarding economic data,<b>Investors should pay attention to China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the final reading of the US June Markit Manufacturing PMI, and the US June ISM Manufacturing PMI.</b></p><p>In addition to the key data and major events mentioned above, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global pandemic, which is expected to affect the future trend of financial markets.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165038670","content_text":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造业PMI将陆续公布。财报方面：携程网、耐克、美光科技等将发布财报。事件方面：周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日、港股通/A股通暂停交易；周二北约峰会开幕，为期两日；腾讯公司周一举行将SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。此外，本周继续关注美联储主席鲍威尔、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、旧金山联储主席戴利等多位美联储官员讲话，从中窥探美联储对当前经济形势和货币政策路径的态度。6月27日 周一关键词：中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率、美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、 美国当周EIA原油库存变动周一，经济数据方面，中国将公布中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率；美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、美国截至6月17日当周EIA原油库存变动出炉。美国耐用品订单4月增幅低于预期。机构分析后认为，企业正在坚持资本支出计划，因其寻求提高生产率，以减轻高通胀和劳动力市场紧张的负担。不过，在利率上升和经济活动预期降温的情况下，企业今年晚些时候是否会重新考虑当下的投资步伐，目前还不太清楚。6月27日将公布美国5月耐用品订单月率初值，目前市场预期为0.4%，低于0.5%的前值。此外，美国能源信息署更新推迟公布的数据。事件方面，投资者可关注腾讯公司举行的SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。财报方面，欧舒丹将于当日发布财报，携程网、耐克将于盘后发布财报。新股方面，涂鸦智能-W新股申购结束。重要会议方面，重重危机之下，七国集团峰会即于6月26日至28日在德国巴伐利亚州首府慕尼黑附近的埃尔茂宫召开。本次峰会的议题涉及俄乌冲突、气候变化、能源危机、粮食安全、经济复苏等话题。观察人士指出，在俄乌冲突持续升级的背景下，七国集团在此次会议中将面临多年来最严峻的挑战和危机。6月28日 周二关键词：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数、北约峰会开幕周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数等。美国批发库存数据反映的是批发商库存中物品总价值的变动，是为了满足未来需要而暂时闲置的资源；批发商作为制造商/进口商及零售商之间的中间人，其库存情况可以作为经济先行指标之一，批发库存增长快说明批发商对经济前景看好。6月28日将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值，在疫情拖累经济的情况下料不会大涨。事件方面，北约峰会开幕，为期两日，预计讨论将集中在乌克兰问题上，投资者也需引起重视。北约峰会将在6月29日至30日于西班牙马德里举行。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格曾将其称之为在俄乌冲突背景下，加强北约的“历史性”机会。据外媒报道，此次北约峰会预计将讨论向欧盟东部与俄罗斯及其盟友白俄罗斯接壤的地区增兵。此外，峰会也有望就土耳其在瑞典和芬兰加入北约上的反对立场问题加以协商。财报方面，力劲科技发布财报。新股方面，智云健康新股申购结束。6月29日 周三关键字：美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、美联储主席鲍威尔/旧金山联储主席戴利/克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话周三，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值。美国2022年一季度实际GDP三年复合增速从1.9%下滑至1.56%。其中，进口大幅拖累一季度经济增长，三年复合增速高达3.96%；但个人消费增速仍持续上行，录得2.38%，高于2021年全年水平；其余分项增速均小幅回落，出口复合增速持续处于负增长，私人投资复合增速下行幅度最大。6月29日将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值，料维持相对低位。此外，美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动也值得投资者关注。美国至6月17日当周API原油库存意外大增560.7万桶，为连续第三周上升并且为2022年4月8日当周以来最大增幅，预期为减少143.3万桶，前值为增加73.6万桶。汽油库存也自3月以来首次增加。6月29日将公布最新周期的数据，料继续录得增加。事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长拉加德、英国央行行长贝利以及国际清算银行总裁卡斯腾斯在欧洲央行论坛上发表讲话。2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特参加一个有关通胀预期的小组讨论；2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话。财报方面，滔搏、3B家居将公布财报。新股方面，伟立控股、天润云将公布中签结果。6月30日 周四关键词：中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德讲话、A股通暂停交易周四，经济数据方面，中国将发布6月官方制造业PMI。6月的最后一天将公布中国官方制造业和非制造业PMI数据，预计随着国内逐渐从疫情中恢复过来，本次数据有望进一步回升。美国将发布5月核心PCE物价指数年率、当周初请失业金人数等数据。其中，美国5月核心PCE物价指数是重中之重。事件方面，投资者需重点关注2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德的讲话。此外，因香港特别行政区成立纪念日，北向交易关闭。财报方面，美光科技将于盘后发布财报。7月1日 周五关键词：港股休市、港股通/A股通暂停交易、中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日，港股通/A股通暂停交易。经济数据方面，投资者需关注中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI。除了以上重点数据和大事件，投资者还需关注全球疫情发展，料影响未来金融市场走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048430431,"gmtCreate":1656237434923,"gmtModify":1676535790701,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048430431","repostId":"1122634027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122634027","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1656231072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122634027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 16:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the US stock market bear market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122634027","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Following the FOMC rate hike of 75 basis points in June, recession concerns have intensified significantly. In the current context of a fast-rate hike, it is not surprising that the US economy subsequently fell into recession. So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks? What experiences can we learn from?</p><p><b>I. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>US growth and profitability are already on a slowdown, and there is a considerable possibility of a subsequent recession. A sudden rate hike itself would have a significant impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>。<b>1) For decline time</b>We estimate that tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, but not so quickly.<b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis.</p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is low and does not arrive soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy will be eased.<b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, it may correspond to the latter half of the third quarter and the early fourth quarter.</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations are supported by one standard deviation below.</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We classify the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP. Compared to deep recessions (corrections exceeding 3%) and mild recessions, the former are usually accompanied by balance sheet shocks (such as in 2008) and therefore last longer (average 13 months). The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden in timing; Real estate and finance are more sensitive to the degree of recession and have less technological growth; The former has a greater valuation drag and no support level, while mild recession valuations can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market declines from their highs is comparable to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is 15-20% away from the support level of 13 times. Based on the 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Apart from the government sector, the macro leverage levels of financial and non-financial corporations and households in the United States are at a relatively healthy level, far lower than during the 2008 financial crisis. This is one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low. Some weaknesses, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low- and middle-income groups, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the US Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the US Market</b></p><p>Following the Fed's \"temporary\" 75 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Aggressive and Forward-Looking Path or the Current 'Optimal Solution'\"),<b>The market trading logic quickly shifted from high inflation and rapid tightening to weak growth, and recession concerns intensified significantly.</b>As a result, the US Treasury yields fell from a high of 3.5% in 2010 to around 3%. Meanwhile, the rise in the gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-stock Nasdaq leading the gains may all be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we believe that the market's reaction to recession concerns may be excessive. However, it is an indisputable fact that US growth is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will fall into recession in the context of the current fast rate hike.</b>So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks and Federal Reserve policy? What lessons can be learned from history? We will analyze it in detail in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. How high is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>Due to the combined effects of a high base, high costs, high inventory, high interest rates, and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate profits are already on a slowdown and will continue to decline.</b>(\"US Stock Earnings Enter Downward Trend\"), which is also the general consensus in the current market.<b>If this path continues, there is a considerable possibility of recession.</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that actively guiding a recession was not the Fed's subjective will (indicating that a recession is possible and that a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the rapid rate hike will itself have a significant impact on demand.</b>(The sharp rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage rates has had an immediate negative impact on U.S. housing demand, with mortgage applications and home sales declining rapidly.) At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (as former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers vividly described in a recent interview about the delayed change in faucet temperature).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>Because falling into a recession too quickly would put the Federal Reserve's policy in a dilemma, and the market would also face dual pressures on valuations and earnings; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on profitability.</p><p><b>1) For the duration of the recession, we try to estimate it by using the tightness or looseness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment).</b>Its advantage is that it has a leading position compared to economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the Federal Reserve's intentions. This is because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions inevitably bring greater growth pressure, while also meaning that the Federal Reserve wants to control inflation by suppressing demand (historically, the Federal Reserve usually stops rate hike when financial conditions turn positive, with the exception of the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread, as well as the actual financing costs of enterprises (investment-grade bond yields) and the return on investment (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the rate hike pace implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively from July to November).<b>Tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth by the end of this year and early next year.</b>(This corresponds to the inversion of the 3m10s curve in November and the historical experience threshold of financing costs exceeding the return on investment of 250 basis points early next year) (\"How to understand the mechanism and impact of tightening financial conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's leading economic indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative, which, judging from the relationship with the recession, also indicates that there may still be some distance to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the US non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis. In other words, even if a recession occurs, it is unlikely to be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Therefore, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy can be eased.</b>。 During a growth slowdown, if the Federal Reserve's policy can be reduced or even reversed after completing its \"task\" (such as inflation reaching a turning point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeding the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter a trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"modified\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, bond assets and stock market growth styles corresponding to inflation outperform relatively.</p><p><b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, this point in time likely corresponds to after the third quarter.</b>This is mainly due to the fact that US inflation will once again reach a high year-on-year base starting in September, and the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 exhibited this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was when Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred six months later in July 2019, and the improvement in growth did not occur until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike during Greenspan's era in 1994, similar to the current one, did not lead to a market crash, and to some extent, it also benefited from the timely \"withdrawal\" of policies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations have support below one standard deviation.</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and durations of economic impact, and naturally, their impact on the market will also differ.</b>According to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~10.1 months. The longest was the Great Depression that began in 1929 (44 months), and the shortest was the 2020 pandemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP from its peak. Empirically, a decline of more than 3% is considered a deep recession, and less than 3% is considered a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with a median duration of 13.2 months; There were eight mild recessions (1948–1949, 1953–1954, 1960–1961, 1969–1970, 1980, 1981–1982, 1990–1991, 2001) with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, larger recessions are often accompanied by balance sheet crises, making it slower and more difficult to impact larger recoveries (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while smaller recessions have a relatively limited impact on balance sheets and recover faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above classification, we found that there are also clear differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 was 44%, far greater than the pullback/retracement of 19% during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) From a timing perspective</b>The start of the market decline is closer to the recession during a deep recession (1.5 months ahead of the peak), while the decline begins earlier during a mild recession (2.4 months ahead of the recession at the market peak). However, the timing of the end was exactly the opposite: the market bottomed out six months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottomed out 5.1 months earlier than a mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>The daily consumer and defensive sectors generally experienced smaller declines during recessions, which is consistent with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the declines in sectors such as real estate, financial services, media, utilities, and insurance were more pronounced during the deep recession, meaning that these sectors are more sensitive to the extent of the recession, while growth-oriented technology sectors are less sensitive.<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and Earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings was roughly the same (median 2.4% for deep recessions vs. 4.3% for mild recessions), while the difference in valuation drag was more significant (median 35% for deep recessions vs. 18% for mild recessions).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has been supported by a standard deviation below its mean for the past 30 years (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as during the rate hike cycle in 1994, the low point of the tech bubble in 2002, the market turmoil in 2018, and the pandemic in 2020). In contrast, deep recessions can \"break down\". For example, during the deep recession of 2008, valuations fell to as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from its peak is close to the average of a mild recession (the S&P 500 has a maximum pullback/retracement of 24%, and the Nasdaq has a maximum pullback/retracement of 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 20.5% away from the support level of a mild recession. Based on a 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for the government sector, the macro leverage levels of U.S. financial and non-financial corporations and households are at relatively healthy levels, far below those of the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore...<b>This is also one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents following the subprime mortgage crisis, and the three rounds of fiscal stimulus totaling $6 trillion after the pandemic that protected the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current leverage ratio of U.S. residents is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), while the leverage ratio of corporations is also close to the pre-pandemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). This is the main reason why Powell previously said that the U.S. economy can withstand tightening pressures. As the Federal Reserve accelerates tightening, overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weaknesses that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Overall balance sheet is healthy; Middle-income groups are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. consumer spending has shown considerable resilience. While goods consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption has maintained a high growth rate. However, the still abundant excess savings ($2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have diverged significantly from consumer confidence, which has been declining to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was 50.2 in May, exceeding the level of the subprime mortgage crisis and reaching the level of the 1970s. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the divergence between people at different income levels.<b>a) High-income individuals have high asset growth and low leverage.</b>。 As of the first quarter, the top 20% of residents' cash assets (savings and money market funds) increased by 41.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, while their liabilities/assets ratio was the lowest among all groups (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income groups</b>The income percentile is between 20% and 80%, and the liability/asset ratio of residents is close to 20%, but it is lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) Low-income groups have decreased cash assets but lower debt levels.</b>。 The main problem for people in the bottom 20% of their income bracket is their low assets (cash assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter), making them more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, the relatively positive aspect is that their debt is also low (15%), so they do not face a significant risk of default.</p><p>Looking at different types of household debt, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans, and consumer credit have increased much more than mortgages since the financial crisis (as of the first quarter, mortgages/GDP were 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP were 18.6%, but the increase was faster). Therefore, they may be a weak link that deserves more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Corporate side: Overall leverage has improved, and solvency has increased; Focus on high-yield bonds and small business exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate sector has not undergone a significant deleveraging process like the residential sector, with the leverage ratio of non-financial corporations at 78% in the first quarter and the net leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in the S&P 500 at 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, it has still improved compared to the period since the pandemic, and solvency has also recovered (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Trend\").</p><p>In our article, \"Looking at the Weaknesses Under Tightening from the Turmoil in European and Japanese Bond Markets,\" we pointed out that US credit spreads have risen rapidly recently (high-yield and investment-grade were 5.3 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points respectively), reaching new highs since 2015. Corporate bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have recently underperformed the Treasury Bond significantly, accompanied by significant capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure warrants attention. However, on a relatively positive note, the maturity of U.S. high-yield bonds was only $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure was not significant.<b>In addition, it is worth noting that small businesses in the United States are facing high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observed corporate short-term liquidity pressures and default risks using current assets/short-term liabilities, and found that among US-listed companies, ~17% were less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportions. However, its market capitalization accounts for only 0.6%, indicating that risk exposure is mainly concentrated in small businesses, and in sectors such as utilities, finance, and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell Emphasizes Anti-Inflation Stance; Recession concerns are rising, manifested in falling interest rates, a sharp drop in commodities, growth leading the way, and lower rate hike expectations.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: Stocks > Bonds > Commodities; Recession concerns are rising, interest rates are falling, commodities are plummeting, and growth is leading the way.</b></p><p><b>Fears of a market recession have risen over the past week.</b>This is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling to 3.1%, a general decline in commodities, and a significant rebound in growth stocks represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq. The decline in the preliminary reading of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June further reflects this situation, with market rate hike expectations falling and the rate hike in September falling from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that rate hike could lead to a recession and that achieving a soft landing would be challenging, but the Fed will unconditionally fight high inflation. To ease oil price pressures, Biden said this week that he hopes to suspend federal gasoline taxes for the next three months. Brent crude oil prices briefly approached $107 per barrel during trading, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113 per barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, in US dollar terms, stocks > bonds > commodities; US and Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stocks, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, automobiles and auto parts, household goods, and biotechnology led the gains in the S&P 500, while only energy declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS narrows, credit spreads rise</b></p><p>Over the past week, the FRA-OIS interest rate spread narrowed to 20 basis points, the 90-day commercial bill spread widened in the financial sector, and narrowed in the non-financial sector. Credit spreads all widened, and the three-month cross-swaps between the euro, yen, and pound sterling and the dollar all narrowed. The US repurchase market is increasingly willing to lend funds. In addition, the use of reverse repos by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's books declined slightly but remained at a high level of $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Oversold positions in the US and Europe have eased; US stocks turned net short</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index has generally declined, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) for US stocks has fallen. Oversold stock markets in Europe, the United States, and emerging markets have eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in US stocks have shifted to net short positions, speculative net long positions in the US dollar have continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures have increased, net short positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds have increased, and net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds have decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Capital flows: Bond outflows accelerate, US stocks turn to outflows.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned out, and money market funds have turned in. By market, the Japanese market turned into an inflow, Europe accelerated its outflow, and emerging markets and the United States turned into an outflow. South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China saw significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Preliminary PMI readings for manufacturing and services in Europe and the US have fallen significantly.</b></p><p><b>US: The preliminary reading of the June manufacturing PMI fell significantly, indicating weakening demand.</b>The Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 in June, lower than the previous reading of 57 and the expected reading of 56, hitting a new low since July 2020. Against the backdrop of high inflation and declining consumer confidence, weakening demand led to a sharp drop in new orders and output in the June PMI into contraction territory, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the Markit Services PMI for June was 51.6, lower than expected (53.5) and the previous reading (53.4), marking a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: Preliminary readings of the manufacturing and services PMIs fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary reading of the Markit Manufacturing PMI for June fell to 52, below expectations and the previous readings (53.8 and 54.6), and the lowest level since August 2020. New orders and output have declined significantly and have fallen back into contraction territory, indicating weakening economic growth and demand in the Eurozone amid high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the services PMI fell to 52.8, below expectations and previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>It remains above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio of 16.3 is higher than a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~15.1 times), and US stock valuations are already below one standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the US stock market bear market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the US stock market bear market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-26 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Following the FOMC rate hike of 75 basis points in June, recession concerns have intensified significantly. In the current context of a fast-rate hike, it is not surprising that the US economy subsequently fell into recession. So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks? What experiences can we learn from?</p><p><b>I. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>US growth and profitability are already on a slowdown, and there is a considerable possibility of a subsequent recession. A sudden rate hike itself would have a significant impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>。<b>1) For decline time</b>We estimate that tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, but not so quickly.<b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis.</p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is low and does not arrive soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy will be eased.<b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, it may correspond to the latter half of the third quarter and the early fourth quarter.</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations are supported by one standard deviation below.</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We classify the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP. Compared to deep recessions (corrections exceeding 3%) and mild recessions, the former are usually accompanied by balance sheet shocks (such as in 2008) and therefore last longer (average 13 months). The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden in timing; Real estate and finance are more sensitive to the degree of recession and have less technological growth; The former has a greater valuation drag and no support level, while mild recession valuations can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market declines from their highs is comparable to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is 15-20% away from the support level of 13 times. Based on the 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Apart from the government sector, the macro leverage levels of financial and non-financial corporations and households in the United States are at a relatively healthy level, far lower than during the 2008 financial crisis. This is one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low. Some weaknesses, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low- and middle-income groups, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the US Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the US Market</b></p><p>Following the Fed's \"temporary\" 75 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Aggressive and Forward-Looking Path or the Current 'Optimal Solution'\"),<b>The market trading logic quickly shifted from high inflation and rapid tightening to weak growth, and recession concerns intensified significantly.</b>As a result, the US Treasury yields fell from a high of 3.5% in 2010 to around 3%. Meanwhile, the rise in the gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-stock Nasdaq leading the gains may all be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we believe that the market's reaction to recession concerns may be excessive. However, it is an indisputable fact that US growth is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will fall into recession in the context of the current fast rate hike.</b>So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks and Federal Reserve policy? What lessons can be learned from history? We will analyze it in detail in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. How high is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>Due to the combined effects of a high base, high costs, high inventory, high interest rates, and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate profits are already on a slowdown and will continue to decline.</b>(\"US Stock Earnings Enter Downward Trend\"), which is also the general consensus in the current market.<b>If this path continues, there is a considerable possibility of recession.</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that actively guiding a recession was not the Fed's subjective will (indicating that a recession is possible and that a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the rapid rate hike will itself have a significant impact on demand.</b>(The sharp rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage rates has had an immediate negative impact on U.S. housing demand, with mortgage applications and home sales declining rapidly.) At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (as former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers vividly described in a recent interview about the delayed change in faucet temperature).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>Because falling into a recession too quickly would put the Federal Reserve's policy in a dilemma, and the market would also face dual pressures on valuations and earnings; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on profitability.</p><p><b>1) For the duration of the recession, we try to estimate it by using the tightness or looseness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment).</b>Its advantage is that it has a leading position compared to economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the Federal Reserve's intentions. This is because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions inevitably bring greater growth pressure, while also meaning that the Federal Reserve wants to control inflation by suppressing demand (historically, the Federal Reserve usually stops rate hike when financial conditions turn positive, with the exception of the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread, as well as the actual financing costs of enterprises (investment-grade bond yields) and the return on investment (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the rate hike pace implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively from July to November).<b>Tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth by the end of this year and early next year.</b>(This corresponds to the inversion of the 3m10s curve in November and the historical experience threshold of financing costs exceeding the return on investment of 250 basis points early next year) (\"How to understand the mechanism and impact of tightening financial conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's leading economic indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative, which, judging from the relationship with the recession, also indicates that there may still be some distance to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the US non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis. In other words, even if a recession occurs, it is unlikely to be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Therefore, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy can be eased.</b>。 During a growth slowdown, if the Federal Reserve's policy can be reduced or even reversed after completing its \"task\" (such as inflation reaching a turning point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeding the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter a trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"modified\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, bond assets and stock market growth styles corresponding to inflation outperform relatively.</p><p><b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, this point in time likely corresponds to after the third quarter.</b>This is mainly due to the fact that US inflation will once again reach a high year-on-year base starting in September, and the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 exhibited this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was when Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred six months later in July 2019, and the improvement in growth did not occur until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike during Greenspan's era in 1994, similar to the current one, did not lead to a market crash, and to some extent, it also benefited from the timely \"withdrawal\" of policies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations have support below one standard deviation.</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and durations of economic impact, and naturally, their impact on the market will also differ.</b>According to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~10.1 months. The longest was the Great Depression that began in 1929 (44 months), and the shortest was the 2020 pandemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP from its peak. Empirically, a decline of more than 3% is considered a deep recession, and less than 3% is considered a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with a median duration of 13.2 months; There were eight mild recessions (1948–1949, 1953–1954, 1960–1961, 1969–1970, 1980, 1981–1982, 1990–1991, 2001) with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, larger recessions are often accompanied by balance sheet crises, making it slower and more difficult to impact larger recoveries (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while smaller recessions have a relatively limited impact on balance sheets and recover faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above classification, we found that there are also clear differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 was 44%, far greater than the pullback/retracement of 19% during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) From a timing perspective</b>The start of the market decline is closer to the recession during a deep recession (1.5 months ahead of the peak), while the decline begins earlier during a mild recession (2.4 months ahead of the recession at the market peak). However, the timing of the end was exactly the opposite: the market bottomed out six months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottomed out 5.1 months earlier than a mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>The daily consumer and defensive sectors generally experienced smaller declines during recessions, which is consistent with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the declines in sectors such as real estate, financial services, media, utilities, and insurance were more pronounced during the deep recession, meaning that these sectors are more sensitive to the extent of the recession, while growth-oriented technology sectors are less sensitive.<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and Earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings was roughly the same (median 2.4% for deep recessions vs. 4.3% for mild recessions), while the difference in valuation drag was more significant (median 35% for deep recessions vs. 18% for mild recessions).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has been supported by a standard deviation below its mean for the past 30 years (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as during the rate hike cycle in 1994, the low point of the tech bubble in 2002, the market turmoil in 2018, and the pandemic in 2020). In contrast, deep recessions can \"break down\". For example, during the deep recession of 2008, valuations fell to as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from its peak is close to the average of a mild recession (the S&P 500 has a maximum pullback/retracement of 24%, and the Nasdaq has a maximum pullback/retracement of 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 20.5% away from the support level of a mild recession. Based on a 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for the government sector, the macro leverage levels of U.S. financial and non-financial corporations and households are at relatively healthy levels, far below those of the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore...<b>This is also one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents following the subprime mortgage crisis, and the three rounds of fiscal stimulus totaling $6 trillion after the pandemic that protected the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current leverage ratio of U.S. residents is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), while the leverage ratio of corporations is also close to the pre-pandemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). This is the main reason why Powell previously said that the U.S. economy can withstand tightening pressures. As the Federal Reserve accelerates tightening, overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weaknesses that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Overall balance sheet is healthy; Middle-income groups are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. consumer spending has shown considerable resilience. While goods consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption has maintained a high growth rate. However, the still abundant excess savings ($2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have diverged significantly from consumer confidence, which has been declining to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was 50.2 in May, exceeding the level of the subprime mortgage crisis and reaching the level of the 1970s. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the divergence between people at different income levels.<b>a) High-income individuals have high asset growth and low leverage.</b>。 As of the first quarter, the top 20% of residents' cash assets (savings and money market funds) increased by 41.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, while their liabilities/assets ratio was the lowest among all groups (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income groups</b>The income percentile is between 20% and 80%, and the liability/asset ratio of residents is close to 20%, but it is lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) Low-income groups have decreased cash assets but lower debt levels.</b>。 The main problem for people in the bottom 20% of their income bracket is their low assets (cash assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter), making them more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, the relatively positive aspect is that their debt is also low (15%), so they do not face a significant risk of default.</p><p>Looking at different types of household debt, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans, and consumer credit have increased much more than mortgages since the financial crisis (as of the first quarter, mortgages/GDP were 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP were 18.6%, but the increase was faster). Therefore, they may be a weak link that deserves more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Corporate side: Overall leverage has improved, and solvency has increased; Focus on high-yield bonds and small business exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate sector has not undergone a significant deleveraging process like the residential sector, with the leverage ratio of non-financial corporations at 78% in the first quarter and the net leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in the S&P 500 at 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, it has still improved compared to the period since the pandemic, and solvency has also recovered (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Trend\").</p><p>In our article, \"Looking at the Weaknesses Under Tightening from the Turmoil in European and Japanese Bond Markets,\" we pointed out that US credit spreads have risen rapidly recently (high-yield and investment-grade were 5.3 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points respectively), reaching new highs since 2015. Corporate bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have recently underperformed the Treasury Bond significantly, accompanied by significant capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure warrants attention. However, on a relatively positive note, the maturity of U.S. high-yield bonds was only $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure was not significant.<b>In addition, it is worth noting that small businesses in the United States are facing high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observed corporate short-term liquidity pressures and default risks using current assets/short-term liabilities, and found that among US-listed companies, ~17% were less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportions. However, its market capitalization accounts for only 0.6%, indicating that risk exposure is mainly concentrated in small businesses, and in sectors such as utilities, finance, and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell Emphasizes Anti-Inflation Stance; Recession concerns are rising, manifested in falling interest rates, a sharp drop in commodities, growth leading the way, and lower rate hike expectations.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: Stocks > Bonds > Commodities; Recession concerns are rising, interest rates are falling, commodities are plummeting, and growth is leading the way.</b></p><p><b>Fears of a market recession have risen over the past week.</b>This is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling to 3.1%, a general decline in commodities, and a significant rebound in growth stocks represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq. The decline in the preliminary reading of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June further reflects this situation, with market rate hike expectations falling and the rate hike in September falling from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that rate hike could lead to a recession and that achieving a soft landing would be challenging, but the Fed will unconditionally fight high inflation. To ease oil price pressures, Biden said this week that he hopes to suspend federal gasoline taxes for the next three months. Brent crude oil prices briefly approached $107 per barrel during trading, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113 per barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, in US dollar terms, stocks > bonds > commodities; US and Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stocks, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, automobiles and auto parts, household goods, and biotechnology led the gains in the S&P 500, while only energy declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS narrows, credit spreads rise</b></p><p>Over the past week, the FRA-OIS interest rate spread narrowed to 20 basis points, the 90-day commercial bill spread widened in the financial sector, and narrowed in the non-financial sector. Credit spreads all widened, and the three-month cross-swaps between the euro, yen, and pound sterling and the dollar all narrowed. The US repurchase market is increasingly willing to lend funds. In addition, the use of reverse repos by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's books declined slightly but remained at a high level of $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Oversold positions in the US and Europe have eased; US stocks turned net short</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index has generally declined, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) for US stocks has fallen. Oversold stock markets in Europe, the United States, and emerging markets have eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in US stocks have shifted to net short positions, speculative net long positions in the US dollar have continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures have increased, net short positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds have increased, and net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds have decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Capital flows: Bond outflows accelerate, US stocks turn to outflows.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned out, and money market funds have turned in. By market, the Japanese market turned into an inflow, Europe accelerated its outflow, and emerging markets and the United States turned into an outflow. South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China saw significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Preliminary PMI readings for manufacturing and services in Europe and the US have fallen significantly.</b></p><p><b>US: The preliminary reading of the June manufacturing PMI fell significantly, indicating weakening demand.</b>The Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 in June, lower than the previous reading of 57 and the expected reading of 56, hitting a new low since July 2020. Against the backdrop of high inflation and declining consumer confidence, weakening demand led to a sharp drop in new orders and output in the June PMI into contraction territory, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the Markit Services PMI for June was 51.6, lower than expected (53.5) and the previous reading (53.4), marking a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: Preliminary readings of the manufacturing and services PMIs fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary reading of the Markit Manufacturing PMI for June fell to 52, below expectations and the previous readings (53.8 and 54.6), and the lowest level since August 2020. New orders and output have declined significantly and have fallen back into contraction territory, indicating weakening economic growth and demand in the Eurozone amid high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the services PMI fell to 52.8, below expectations and previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>It remains above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio of 16.3 is higher than a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~15.1 times), and US stock valuations are already below one standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122634027","content_text":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要美国增长和盈利已处于放缓通道，后续衰退也有相当可能性，骤然加息本身就会对需求带来较大冲击。给定放缓甚至衰退可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要。1）对于衰退时间，我们测算金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现，并没那么快。2）对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题若深度衰退概率较小且不会很快到来，对市场更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退，而是政策何时能退坡。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，可能对应在三季度后四季度初。此时，市场可以进入债券和成长的交易逻辑。2019年初和1994年都有相似之处。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在下方一倍标准差有支撑上世纪20年代以来美国经历15次衰退。我们以GDP回落幅度划分衰退程度。对比深度衰退（回调幅度超过3%）和轻度衰退，前者通常伴随资产负债表冲击（如2008年），故持续时间更长（平均13个月）；市场跌幅明显更大，时点上更突然；地产金融等对衰退程度更敏感、科技成长较小；前者估值拖累更大且没有支撑位，轻度衰退估值能在均值下方一倍标准差找到支撑。本轮市场从高点跌幅已与轻度衰退相当（标普500回撤24%，纳斯达克34%）；当前16.3倍动态估值距13倍支撑位还有15~20%，我们基于3.5%10年美债测算合理水平为14倍附近。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。一些薄弱环节，如高收益债、中低收入人群消费贷款等值得关注。焦点讨论：美国经济的衰退风险 vs. 美国市场的熊市压力6月FOMC会议美联储“临时”加息75bp后（《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》），市场交易逻辑迅速从高通胀和快紧缩向弱增长切换，衰退担忧明显升温。受此影响，10年美债利率从3.5%的高点一度回落3%附近。与此同时，上周金铜比走高、油价大跌、成长风格纳斯达克领涨可能也都与这一预期有关。短期来看，我们认为市场对衰退担忧的反应不排除有过度之嫌。但是，当前美国增长逐步放缓也是不争的事实，在当前快加息的背景下后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股和美联储政策有何启示？历史上有什么经验值得借鉴？我们将在本文中具体分析。一、衰退风险有多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要在高基数、高成本、高库存、高利率和弱需求的共同作用下，美国增长和企业盈利已经处于放缓通道且仍将继续回落（《美股盈利进入下行通道》），这也是当前市场的普遍共识。沿着这个路径继续下去，衰退也有相当可能性。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后和上周国会听证会上都表示主动引导衰退并不是美联储主观意愿（表示经济衰退可能性存在，且软着陆非常具有挑战性），但快加息带来的金融条件快速收紧本身就会对需求带来较大冲击（30年和10年房贷利率的骤升已经给美国房地产需求带来了立竿见影的负面影响，房贷申请数和房屋销售都快速回落），同时货币骤然紧缩的余波也势必会逐步显现出来（正如美国前财长萨默斯在近期接受专访中有关水龙头水温延时变化的形象比喻）。给定增长放缓甚至衰退的可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要，因为过快陷入衰退将使得美联储政策面临两难境地，市场也将承受估值和盈利的双重压力；而深度衰退则将对盈利造成更加剧烈且持久的冲击。1) 对于衰退时间，我们尝试通过金融条件的松紧（融资成本超过投资回报率的程度）来估算，其好处是相比经济指标本身具有领先性且能够“观察”美联储的意图，因为过高的利率和过紧的金融条件必然带来更大增长压力的同时、也意味着美联储想要通过抑制需求来实现控制通胀的目的（回顾历史，当金融条件转正后，美联储通常便停止加息，仅上世纪七十年代末例外）。我们采用3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本（投资级债券收益率）与投资回报率（实际GDP增速）这两个维度分别测算，以当前美联储点阵图和CME利率期货隐含的加息步伐计（7~11月分别加息75bp、50bp和25bp），金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现（对应3m10s在11月倒挂、以及融资成本明年初超出投资回报率250bp的历史经验阈值）（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。此外，Conference Board经济领先指标虽然年初以来持续下滑但同比增速尚未转负，从与衰退的关系看也表明可能还有一段距离。2) 对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表状况表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险，换言之，即便出现衰退，可能大概率也不会是类似于2008年金融危机似的深度衰退。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题如果深度衰退概率较小且可能不会很快到来，那么对市场而言更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退、而是政策何时能够退坡。在增长放缓的过程中，如果美联储政策完成“任务”之后（如通胀出现拐点且联邦基金利率有效超过中性利率）可以退坡甚至转向的话，那么市场则可以进入增长放缓且政策宽松的交易逻辑，根据我们基于实际利率和通胀预期的“改进版”美林时钟，通胀对应债券资产和股市成长风格相对跑赢。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，这一时点可能对应在三季度之后，主要是考虑到9月开始美国通胀将再度迎来同比高基数，同时当前加息路径可能在9月之后逐步降速。实际上，2019年初的市场企稳就呈现出这一特点，市场见底的契机是2019年初鲍威尔传递鸽派信号，但真正降息则是发生在半年后的2019年7月、增长好转更是要到三季度。1994年格林斯潘时期与当前类似的快速加息并没有导致市场以“崩盘”收场，在一定程度上也同样得益于政策的及时“收手”。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在一倍标准差下方有支撑不同衰退对经济冲击程度和时间不同，自然对市场的影响也就不同。参照美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的定义，上世纪20年代末以来美国共经历15次衰退，持续时间中值~10.1个月，其中最长的是1929年开启的大萧条（44个月），最短的是2020年疫情（仅2个月）。我们以GDP从峰值回落幅度来定义衰退程度，经验值看回调幅度超过3%为深度衰退、小于3%为轻度衰退。基于这一定义，上世纪20年代末以来，深度衰退共计7次（1929~1933年、1937~1938年、1945年、1957~1958年、1973~1975年、2007~2009年、2020年），持续时间中值13.2个月；轻度衰退8次（1948~1949年、1953~1954年、1960~1961年、1969~1970年、1980年、1981~1982年、1990年~1991年、2001年），平均持续时间10个月。一般而言，较大程度的衰退通常会伴随资产负债表的危机，因此冲击更大修复也更慢更难（典型如2008年金融危机），而小幅的衰退对资产负债表的冲击相对有限、修复也更快。基于上述划分，我们发现市场和板块表现也存在“泾渭分明”的差异。1）整体表现：深度衰退期间，标普500最大回撤中值44%，远大于轻度衰退期的19%的回撤。2）时点上看：市场下跌起点在深度衰退期间与衰退期更为贴近（高点领先1.5个月），而轻度衰退时下跌开始的更早（市场高点领先衰退2.4个月）；但结束时间恰好相反，市场底部早于深度衰退结束6个月，市场见底早于轻度衰退5.1个月。3）行业表现：日常消费及防御板块衰退期间跌幅普遍都较小、符合防御性板块特征；但房地产、金融服务、媒体、公用事业、保险等板块跌幅在深度衰退更剧烈，意味着此类板块对衰退程度更加敏感，相比之下成长风格的科技板块敏感度较低。4）估值与盈利：受限于估值数据，我们观察上世纪50年代以来不同衰退期间，盈利的拖累程度大体相当（深度衰退中值为2.4% vs. 轻度衰退中值为4.3%），估值拖累差异则更为显著（深度衰退中值35% vs. 轻度衰退18%）。5）估值绝对水平：标普500指数在过去三十年间基本都在均值下方一倍标准差的维持能够得到支撑（对应12个月动态估值13倍左右，如1994年加息周期、2002年科技泡沫低点、2018年市场动荡和2020年疫情）；相比之下深度衰退则会“破位”，如2008年深度衰退除期间，估值最低跌至9倍。对比来看，本轮市场从高点的跌幅已经接近轻度衰退的平均值（标普500最大回撤24%，纳斯达克最大回撤34%），而当前16.3倍的动态估值距离轻度衰退的支撑位还有20.5%的下行空间，我们基于3.5%的10年美债利率与当前增长环境测算合理水平为14倍左右。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节整体来看，除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民部门宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，因此这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。得益于次贷危机后美国居民持续去杠杆，以及疫情后美国三轮共计6万亿美元财政刺激保护了居民和企业资产负债表，美国当前居民杠杆率处于较低水平（75.1%vs. 2019年四季度74.2%），企业杠杆率也接近疫情前水平（77.7% vs. 2019年四季度75.1%），这也是鲍威尔此前称美国经济能够抵御紧缩压力的主要原因。在美联储加速紧缩的过程中，整体债务风险可控，但中间也存在一些薄弱环节需要关注。具体来看：1) 居民：总体资产负债表健康；中等收入人群敞口更大。2022年以来美国居民消费一直呈现相当韧性，在商品消费已经开始放缓的背景下，服务消费仍保持较高增速。但当前仍充沛的超额储蓄（2.3万亿美元）、有韧性的居民消费，与已经持续下探到低点的消费者信心出现了较大背离，如密歇根大学消费者情绪指数5月50.2，超过次贷危机时期，达到了上世纪70年代水平；世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）消费者信心指数4月为106相对更高，这背后可能体现出不同收入水平人群的分化。a）高收入人群资产增幅高，杠杆低。截至一季度，收入前20%居民现金类资产（储蓄和货币基金）较2019年四季度增长 41.4%，负债/资产则是所有人群中最低（3.8%）。b）中等收入人群高杠杆，收入分位在20%~80%居民负债/资产接近20%，但低于次贷危机水平。c）低收入人群现金资产下降但负债不高。收入分位在后20%的人群主要问题是资产不高（一季度现金类资产环比下降1.2%），更容易受高通胀的挤压，但相对积极的是其负债也不高（15%），因此不面临较大的违约风险。从居民端不同类别负债看，学生贷款、汽车贷款和消费信贷的规模和占比从金融危机以来提升幅度都要远高于房贷（截至一季度房贷/GDP为50.2%，消费贷/GDP为18.6%，但提升更快），因此可能是更值得关注的薄弱环节。2) 企业端：整体杠杆改善，偿付能力提升；关注高收益债和小企业敞口。虽然美国企业端并未像居民端经历大幅去杠杆过程，一季度非金融企业杠杆率为78%，标普500非金融企业净杠杆率74%，均高于次贷危机时期，但相对疫情以来仍有改善，且偿付能力也有所修复（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。我们在《从欧日债市动荡看紧缩下的薄弱环节》中指出，美国信用利差近期快速上升（高收益和投资级分别为5.3ppt和2.0ppt），为2015年以来新高。信用债尤其是高收益债近期大幅跑输国债，并伴随明显的资金流出，因此潜在的风险敞口值得关注。但相对积极的是，美国高收益债到期规模截至2023年末只有800亿美元，偿付压力并不算大。此外，美国小企业受高成本和金融条件收紧也值得关注。我们以流动资产/短期负债观测企业短期流动性压力以及违约风险，发现在美国上市公司中~17%小于1，以能源、原材料、消费服务占比最高；不过市值占比只有0.6%，这表明风险敞口更多以小企业为主，且集中在公用事业、金融和通讯等板块。市场动态：鲍威尔强调抗通胀立场；衰退担忧升温，表现为利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先，加息预期回落►资产表现：资产表现：股>债>大宗；衰退担忧升温，利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先过去一周市场衰退担忧升温，表现体现为10年美债利率回落至3.1%、大宗普遍下跌，FAAMNG、纳斯达克为代表的成长风格反弹明显。美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值回落进一步反映这一情形，市场加息预期回落，9月加息幅度由75bp回落至50bp。美联储主席鲍威尔听证会明确表示加息或可能导致衰退，实现软着陆具有挑战性，但美联储将无条件抗击高通胀。为降低油价压力，拜登本周表示希望在未来三个月内暂停联邦汽油税，布伦特原油价格盘中一度逼近107美元/桶，但供需因素支撑油价本周收于113美元/桶。整体看，美元计价下，股>债>大宗；美国中概股、FAAMNG、俄罗斯股市、纳斯达克领涨；小麦、天然气、铜、大豆等领跌。板块方面，标普500中汽车与零部件、家庭用品、生物科技等领涨，仅能源下跌。►流动性：FRA-OIS收窄，信用利差走高过去一周，FRA-OIS利差收窄至20bp，90天金融行业商票利差走扩，非金融行业收窄。信用利差均走扩，欧元、日元、英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换均收窄。美国回购市场资金出借意愿增加。此外，美国主要金融机构在美联储账上逆回购使用量略回落但仍维持2.2万亿美元的高位。►情绪仓位：美欧超卖缓解；美股转为净空头过去一周，VIX指数整体回落，美股看空/看多比例（10天平均）回落。欧美及新兴股市超卖程度有所趋缓。仓位方面，美股投机性仓位转为净空头，美元投机性净多头仓位持续增加，铜期货投机性净空头仓位增加，10年美债净空头仓位增加，2年美债净空头仓位减少。►资金流向：债券加速流出，美股转为流出过去一周，债券加速流出，股票转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，日本市场转为流入，欧洲加速流出，新兴市场、美国转为流出；韩国、越南录得流入，印度、中国流出明显。►基本面与政策：欧美制造业与服务业PMI初值回落明显美国：6月制造业PMI初值回落明显，需求趋弱。6月Markit制造业PMI录得52.4，低于前值57和预期值56，创2020年7月以来新低。在通胀高企、消费者信心回落的背景下，需求趋弱导致6月PMI新订单、产出大幅回落至收缩区间，创2020年6月以来新低。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。6月Markit 服务业PMI初值为51.6，低于预期（53.5）和前值（53.4），为5个月以来新低。欧元区：6月制造业和服务业PMI初值回落明显。6月Markit制造业PMI初值降至52，低于预期和前值（53.8和54.6），为2020年8月以来的最低水平。新订单、产出等分项回落明显，且已回落至收缩区间，在高通胀及地缘政治不确定性下欧元区经济增长和需求趋弱。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。服务业PMI初值降至52.8，低于预期和前值（54和54.8）。►市场估值：仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平。当前标普500的16.3倍动态P/E高于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~15.1倍），美股估值已低于向下一倍标准差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041887135,"gmtCreate":1656033422127,"gmtModify":1676535754834,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041887135","repostId":"1147384376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147384376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656028464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147384376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 07:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | US stocks staged a dramatic rebound! Chinese concept stocks stood out, with XPeng Automotive rising nearly 8%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147384376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks collectively closed higher, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ②US crude oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both US PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Associates doubled its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed higher overnight, with most US tech stocks rising.</p><p>At the close of trading, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>Most U.S. tech stocks closed higher, among them...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose 2.26%; The concept of economic restart mostly weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>United Airlines fell 0.92%, and United Airlines fell 2.48%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell 2.33%. In addition, internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer goods, and pharmaceutical sectors all surged.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p>Regarding other Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It closed up 6.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Dada rose over 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose over 5%, and Bilibili...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Teeth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Pink sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It rose more than 1%, after ending a three-day losing streak on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It closed down nearly 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with the German DAX index falling 1.72%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across all three major indices. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, the UK's FTSE index fell 1%, and the EuroStoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 1.8% on Thursday, hitting its lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to settle at $104.27 a barrel, their lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike could trigger an economic recession, thereby dampening fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline.</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool usage hit a new record of $2.285 trillion.</p><p>Use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. Eighty-nine participants spent $2.285 trillion, surpassing the previous high of $2.259 trillion reached on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight interest rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change with the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p>2. Powell reiterated his \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, stating that an economic recession is not inevitable.</p><p>Despite Democrats warning of the risk of a recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation is \"unconditional.\" Another Federal Reserve governor supports another 75 basis point rate hike next month. Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"Our overheated labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we're still a long way from our inflation target. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation down to 2%, because without that, we won't be able to achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve still hopes for a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be difficult.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on current inflation data, I expect rate hike to set 75 basis points at the next meeting, and rate hike should set it at least 50 basis points at subsequent meetings, provided the data supports it. Depending on economic developments, the federal funds rate target range may need to be further raised later.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008.</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States climbed again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield. The previous week, the interest rate posted its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Declining US business activity and soaring inflation have led to a contraction in factory orders and production.</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step toward a decline in June as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand in the service sector and led to a direct contraction in factory orders and production. S&P Global's preliminary reading of the U.S. Composite Output Index for June, released on Thursday, fell 2.4 points to 51.2. Although still above 50, this is the second lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the recession caused by the pandemic.</p><p>6. Is the US economy showing signs of decline? Both PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows.</p><p>Financial Analysis Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by S&P Global on Thursday (June 23) shows that both the U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) fell more than expected in June. Specific data shows that the preliminary US manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.4, a 23-month low, far below market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The preliminary reading of the manufacturing output index was 49.6, a 24-month low, far below the previous month's 55.2. The preliminary reading of the Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for June was 51.6, significantly lower than the market expectation of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, hitting a five-month low and marking the third time it has fallen below 52 since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturned a New York State gun law that would allow more people to legally own guns.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York State in a major ruling on gun rights, allowing more people to legally carry guns on the streets. The judges voted six to three to overturn a restrictive New York state gun law that required people to demonstrate a special need to carry a firearm in order to obtain a license to carry one in public. The judges said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to 'keep and bear arms'. It is understood that similar laws exist in California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, which may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. A U.S. senator sent a letter to Biden stating that he should consider restricting crude oil exports.</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators are urging President Biden to limit crude oil exports in order to secure oil supplies for the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin, and Jeanne Shaheen stated that the “severe spike” in energy prices justified the use of this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil company executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House Special Investigative Committee held its fifth public hearing regarding the Capitol riot.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. House Select Committee on Investigations held its fifth public hearing on its investigation into the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigative committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to “legitimize” his election lies and put pressure on several officials. White House counsel Eric Hirschman testified that former senior Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark had expressed a desire to use the Justice Department's power to assist Trump's plans.</p><p>10. Omeprone BA.4/5 is on the rise: the variant with the strongest immune escape ability is repeatedly infected.</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the new Omeprone variants BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating in the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the country. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is the virus mutation strain of COVID-19 with the strongest immune escape capacity to date. It can reinfect and can travel through the lungs, characteristics that mean they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Associates doubles its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion.</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, bringing its bearish outlook on the region's stock markets to its highest level in two years. According to compiled data, the world's largest hedge fund disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>Personal bets with SAP exceeded $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion to short European stocks. Data compiled from regulatory filings shows that these investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor manufacturer ASML and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>Short bets of approximately $752 million. The number of European companies the company has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>According to Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to levying grain tariffs in rubles and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates could reach 1.5%-2% within a year.</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and governor of the Central Bank of Slovakia, said the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, bringing them to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July, and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. “It all depends on the upcoming data,” Kazimir said, adding that some Eurozone countries may fall into a “technical recession.”</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion.</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that the EU should prepare for enlargement, given that Ukraine and Moldova will receive candidate status. Scholz emphasized that in order for the larger coalition to work, more decisions should be made by majority vote rather than requiring unanimity. Currently, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies they do not approve of. Previously, due to opposition from countries such as Hungary, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high; Mexico's central bank announces 75 basis point rate hike.</p><p>The Bank of Mexico accelerated its pace of interest rate hikes on Thursday after data showed year-on-year price increases reached a 21-year high in early June. The Bank of Mexico raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with the expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. This rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted its inflation targeting system in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank typically tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries.</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day had agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries, and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called it a historic moment, marking a crucial step for Ukraine towards the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that this decision not only strengthens the power of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision at the EU summit was made in response to a recommendation from the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's acquisition of EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU.</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on his official social media about Ukraine's EU candidate status, saying it was a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relationship with the EU and expressing his gratitude for the support of EU leaders.</p><p>3. US official: The US will provide an additional $450 million in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23 local time, U.S. officials said the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military aid, including HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket systems, ammunition, and other supplies. It is reported that the US government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia it could trigger an energy market collapse.</p><p>Germany has warned that Russia's cuts to European natural gas supplies could trigger an energy market collapse with the same impact as Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest, \"alert,\" Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that energy suppliers are incurring increasing losses as they are forced to offset lost gas volumes at high prices, posing a potential spillover risk to the local utility industry and its users, including consumers and businesses. At a press conference in Berlin, Habeck said, \"If the losses are too large for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Due to sanctions against Russia, Japan faces difficulties in supplying construction timber.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt international industrial and supply chains, bringing increasing impacts to many countries around the world. Because Japan is prone to earthquakes, many buildings use wooden structures, resulting in a huge demand for wood. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large quantities of Russian timber, which had a significant impact on Japan's timber supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will completely withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sportswear brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after a three-month suspension of its operations in Russia. Analysts point out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will not have any substantial impact. Revenue from Ukraine and Russia combined accounts for less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Congressional delays could lead to a scaling back of the Ohio factory plan.</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company does not know when it will see results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale it has long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled for July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that the groundbreaking would be postponed.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers have suffered a severe blow! FDA bans JUUL products from the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban the sale or distribution of Juul e-cigarettes in the U.S. market, stating that there is \"insufficient evidence\" to show that the product's sale is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he does not agree with the FDA's judgment and will exhaust regulatory and related legal options to seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals dismissed the case.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion infringement compensation</p><p>On Thursday local time, a U.S. federal appeals court ruled to overturn a lower court's decision to uphold Centripetal's patent infringement lawsuit against Cisco because Judge Morgan, who heard the case, did not take recusal measures knowing that his wife held Cisco stock. At the time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement damages, which, including patent licensing fees, would bring the total damages to more than $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix lays off 300 employees as revenue growth slows.</a></p><p>According to local media reports, after laying off 150 employees last month, streaming giant Netflix recently laid off another 300 employees, equivalent to about 3% of the company's total workforce. The company subsequently confirmed the matter and stated that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives from seven major oil companies</p><p>According to a statement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with the CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure a safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth-largest oil refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>An accidental fire was reported at the Wilmington refinery on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | US stocks staged a dramatic rebound! Chinese concept stocks stood out, with XPeng Automotive rising nearly 8%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | US stocks staged a dramatic rebound! Chinese concept stocks stood out, with XPeng Automotive rising nearly 8%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-24 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks collectively closed higher, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ②US crude oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both US PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Associates doubled its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed higher overnight, with most US tech stocks rising.</p><p>At the close of trading, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>Most U.S. tech stocks closed higher, among them...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose 2.26%; The concept of economic restart mostly weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>United Airlines fell 0.92%, and United Airlines fell 2.48%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell 2.33%. In addition, internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer goods, and pharmaceutical sectors all surged.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p>Regarding other Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It closed up 6.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Dada rose over 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose over 5%, and Bilibili...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Teeth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Pink sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It rose more than 1%, after ending a three-day losing streak on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It closed down nearly 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with the German DAX index falling 1.72%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across all three major indices. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, the UK's FTSE index fell 1%, and the EuroStoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 1.8% on Thursday, hitting its lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to settle at $104.27 a barrel, their lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike could trigger an economic recession, thereby dampening fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline.</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool usage hit a new record of $2.285 trillion.</p><p>Use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. Eighty-nine participants spent $2.285 trillion, surpassing the previous high of $2.259 trillion reached on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight interest rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change with the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p>2. Powell reiterated his \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, stating that an economic recession is not inevitable.</p><p>Despite Democrats warning of the risk of a recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation is \"unconditional.\" Another Federal Reserve governor supports another 75 basis point rate hike next month. Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"Our overheated labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we're still a long way from our inflation target. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation down to 2%, because without that, we won't be able to achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve still hopes for a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be difficult.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on current inflation data, I expect rate hike to set 75 basis points at the next meeting, and rate hike should set it at least 50 basis points at subsequent meetings, provided the data supports it. Depending on economic developments, the federal funds rate target range may need to be further raised later.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008.</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States climbed again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield. The previous week, the interest rate posted its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Declining US business activity and soaring inflation have led to a contraction in factory orders and production.</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step toward a decline in June as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand in the service sector and led to a direct contraction in factory orders and production. S&P Global's preliminary reading of the U.S. Composite Output Index for June, released on Thursday, fell 2.4 points to 51.2. Although still above 50, this is the second lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the recession caused by the pandemic.</p><p>6. Is the US economy showing signs of decline? Both PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows.</p><p>Financial Analysis Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by S&P Global on Thursday (June 23) shows that both the U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) fell more than expected in June. Specific data shows that the preliminary US manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.4, a 23-month low, far below market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The preliminary reading of the manufacturing output index was 49.6, a 24-month low, far below the previous month's 55.2. The preliminary reading of the Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for June was 51.6, significantly lower than the market expectation of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, hitting a five-month low and marking the third time it has fallen below 52 since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturned a New York State gun law that would allow more people to legally own guns.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York State in a major ruling on gun rights, allowing more people to legally carry guns on the streets. The judges voted six to three to overturn a restrictive New York state gun law that required people to demonstrate a special need to carry a firearm in order to obtain a license to carry one in public. The judges said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to 'keep and bear arms'. It is understood that similar laws exist in California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, which may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. A U.S. senator sent a letter to Biden stating that he should consider restricting crude oil exports.</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators are urging President Biden to limit crude oil exports in order to secure oil supplies for the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin, and Jeanne Shaheen stated that the “severe spike” in energy prices justified the use of this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil company executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House Special Investigative Committee held its fifth public hearing regarding the Capitol riot.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. House Select Committee on Investigations held its fifth public hearing on its investigation into the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigative committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to “legitimize” his election lies and put pressure on several officials. White House counsel Eric Hirschman testified that former senior Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark had expressed a desire to use the Justice Department's power to assist Trump's plans.</p><p>10. Omeprone BA.4/5 is on the rise: the variant with the strongest immune escape ability is repeatedly infected.</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the new Omeprone variants BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating in the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the country. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is the virus mutation strain of COVID-19 with the strongest immune escape capacity to date. It can reinfect and can travel through the lungs, characteristics that mean they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Associates doubles its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion.</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, bringing its bearish outlook on the region's stock markets to its highest level in two years. According to compiled data, the world's largest hedge fund disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>Personal bets with SAP exceeded $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion to short European stocks. Data compiled from regulatory filings shows that these investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor manufacturer ASML and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>Short bets of approximately $752 million. The number of European companies the company has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>According to Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to levying grain tariffs in rubles and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates could reach 1.5%-2% within a year.</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and governor of the Central Bank of Slovakia, said the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, bringing them to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July, and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. “It all depends on the upcoming data,” Kazimir said, adding that some Eurozone countries may fall into a “technical recession.”</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion.</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that the EU should prepare for enlargement, given that Ukraine and Moldova will receive candidate status. Scholz emphasized that in order for the larger coalition to work, more decisions should be made by majority vote rather than requiring unanimity. Currently, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies they do not approve of. Previously, due to opposition from countries such as Hungary, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high; Mexico's central bank announces 75 basis point rate hike.</p><p>The Bank of Mexico accelerated its pace of interest rate hikes on Thursday after data showed year-on-year price increases reached a 21-year high in early June. The Bank of Mexico raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with the expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. This rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted its inflation targeting system in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank typically tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries.</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day had agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries, and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called it a historic moment, marking a crucial step for Ukraine towards the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that this decision not only strengthens the power of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision at the EU summit was made in response to a recommendation from the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's acquisition of EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU.</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on his official social media about Ukraine's EU candidate status, saying it was a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relationship with the EU and expressing his gratitude for the support of EU leaders.</p><p>3. US official: The US will provide an additional $450 million in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23 local time, U.S. officials said the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military aid, including HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket systems, ammunition, and other supplies. It is reported that the US government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia it could trigger an energy market collapse.</p><p>Germany has warned that Russia's cuts to European natural gas supplies could trigger an energy market collapse with the same impact as Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest, \"alert,\" Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that energy suppliers are incurring increasing losses as they are forced to offset lost gas volumes at high prices, posing a potential spillover risk to the local utility industry and its users, including consumers and businesses. At a press conference in Berlin, Habeck said, \"If the losses are too large for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Due to sanctions against Russia, Japan faces difficulties in supplying construction timber.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt international industrial and supply chains, bringing increasing impacts to many countries around the world. Because Japan is prone to earthquakes, many buildings use wooden structures, resulting in a huge demand for wood. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large quantities of Russian timber, which had a significant impact on Japan's timber supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will completely withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sportswear brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after a three-month suspension of its operations in Russia. Analysts point out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will not have any substantial impact. Revenue from Ukraine and Russia combined accounts for less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Congressional delays could lead to a scaling back of the Ohio factory plan.</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company does not know when it will see results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale it has long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled for July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that the groundbreaking would be postponed.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers have suffered a severe blow! FDA bans JUUL products from the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban the sale or distribution of Juul e-cigarettes in the U.S. market, stating that there is \"insufficient evidence\" to show that the product's sale is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he does not agree with the FDA's judgment and will exhaust regulatory and related legal options to seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals dismissed the case.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion infringement compensation</p><p>On Thursday local time, a U.S. federal appeals court ruled to overturn a lower court's decision to uphold Centripetal's patent infringement lawsuit against Cisco because Judge Morgan, who heard the case, did not take recusal measures knowing that his wife held Cisco stock. At the time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement damages, which, including patent licensing fees, would bring the total damages to more than $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix lays off 300 employees as revenue growth slows.</a></p><p>According to local media reports, after laying off 150 employees last month, streaming giant Netflix recently laid off another 300 employees, equivalent to about 3% of the company's total workforce. The company subsequently confirmed the matter and stated that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives from seven major oil companies</p><p>According to a statement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with the CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure a safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth-largest oil refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>An accidental fire was reported at the Wilmington refinery on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","09868":"小鹏集团-W","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4555":"新能源车","XPEV":"小鹏集团","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1587":"次新股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147384376","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收高 美国科技股多数走高美股收盘，三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨1.62%，标普500指数涨0.95%。美国科技股收盘多数走高，其中苹果涨2.16%、特斯拉跌0.43%、亚马逊涨3.20%、谷歌A涨0.68%、奈飞涨1.58%、微软涨2.26%；经济重启概念多数走弱，美国航空跌0.92%、联合航空跌2.48%、皇家加勒比邮轮跌1.69%、波音跌2.33%。此外，互联网科技股、新能源汽车、消费和医药板块全数大涨。2、热门中概股多数收涨 新能源车板块领涨热门中概股周四多数收涨，新能源车板块领涨，小鹏汽车涨近8%，理想汽车涨6.6%，比亚迪ADR涨3.7%，蔚来涨超2%。其他中概股方面，拼多多收涨6.4%，百度涨2.4%，京东涨近0.8%，而网易跌近0.9%。叮咚买菜涨超7%，阿里巴巴、达达涨逾6%，电子烟第一股雾芯科技涨逾5%，B站、爱奇艺涨超3%，好未来、虎牙、迅雷涨超2%，腾讯粉单、满帮、金山云、知乎涨超1%，而周三刚结束三连跌的新东方收跌近9%，斗鱼跌逾4%，高途教育跌0.5%，网易有道跌近0.4%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX指数跌1.72%欧股收盘，三大股指全线收跌。德国DAX指数跌1.72%，法国CAC指数跌0.56%，英国富时指数跌1%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周四收跌1.8% 创5月10日以来最低收盘价美国原油期货价格周四录得连续第二个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅为1.81%，收于每桶104.27美元，创5月10日以来的最低收盘价。投资者担心美联储激进加息可能引发经济衰退，从而抑制燃料需求。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.5% 连续第四日收跌纽约黄金期货价格周四录得连续第四个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌8.60美元，跌幅为0.5%，报收于每盎司1829.80美元。分析师指出，周四黄金价格下跌的主要原因是美元走强，而美元走强的原因是市场预期美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的货币政策。国际宏观1、美联储逆回购工具使用量创下2.285万亿美元的新纪录美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量周四再创新高。89个参与方动用2.285万亿美元，超过周三触及的前期高点2.259万亿美元。该工具支付隔夜利率0.80%；其利率跟随美联储政策而变化。2、鲍威尔重申“无条件”抗通胀承诺 称经济衰退并非不可避免尽管民主党人警告经济衰退风险，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，联储抗通胀的承诺是“无条件的”。另一位美联储理事支持下个月再次升息75个基点。鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证时表示，“我们劳动力市场的过热有点不可持续，现在离通胀目标还很遥远。我们真的需要恢复物价稳定，让通胀率回落至2%，因为如果不这样做的话，将无法实现可持续的充分就业。”鲍威尔重申， 美联储仍然希望经济实现软着陆，尽管过程会比较艰难。3、美联储理事Bowman支持在7月加息75个基点美联储理事Michelle Bowman表示，她支持7月升息75个基点，之后再进行几次50基点的加息。Bowman在为马萨诸塞州银行家协会组织的一场活动准备的发言中说，“基于当前的通胀数据，我预计下次会议上加息75个基点是合适的，只要数据支持，在此后的几次会议上应该加息至少50个基点。根据经济的发展情况，之后可能还需要进一步提高联邦基金目标利率区间。”4、美国抵押贷款利率升至5.81% 创2008年以来最高水平美国的抵押贷款利率再次攀升，创14年来高位。房地美在周四发布的声明中称，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.81%，高于上周的5.78%。这个走势与10年期美债收益率的下滑背道而驰。此前一周该利率创下1987年以来最大周升幅。5、美国企业活动下降 通胀飙升导致工厂订单和生产萎缩美国企业活动6月向回落迈出了坚定一步，因快速走高的通胀降低了服务业需求，并导致工厂订单和生产径直萎缩。S&P Global周四发布的6月份美国综合产出指数初值下滑2.4点至51.2。虽然仍高于50，但这已是2020年7月以来的次低水平，当时经济正在竭力摆脱疫情引发的衰退。6、美国经济颓势尽显？两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位附近金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）周四（6月23日）公布的最新数据报告显示，6月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）均出现了超于预期的跌幅。具体数据显示，美国6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57；制造业产出指数初值录得49.6，刷新24个月低位，远不及上月的55.2。6月商务活动指数（服务业PMI）初值录得51.6，显著低于市场预期的53.5和5月的53.4，刷新5个月低位，为2020年7月以来第三次跌至52以下。7、美国最高法院推翻纽约州一项枪支法律 将允许更多人合法持枪当地时间6月23日，美国最高法院在一项有关持枪权的重大裁决中推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，将允许更多人在街道上合法持枪。法官们以6票赞成、3票反对的结果推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，该法律要求人们证明自己特别需要携带枪支，才能获得在公共场合携带枪支的执照。法官们表示，这一要求违反了第二修正案“持有和携带武器”的权利。据悉，美国加利福尼亚州、夏威夷、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新泽西州和罗得岛州都有类似的法律，可能会因这项裁决而受到挑战。8、美国参议员致函拜登 称其应当考虑限制原油出口美国民主党参议员敦促总统拜登限制原油出口，从而保障美国及其盟友的的石油供应。参议员Jack Reed、Tammy Duckworth、Tammy Baldwin和Jeanne Shaheen在一封信函中表示，能源价格“严重飙升”给使用这一权力提供了理由。美国能源部长Jennifer Granholm定于今天与石油企业高管会面。9、美国会众议院特别调查委员会就国会大厦骚乱事件举行第五场公开听证会当地时间6月23日，美国国会众议院特别调查委员会就去年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件的调查举行第五场公开听证会。特别调查委员会主席本尼·汤普森（Bennie Thompson）在听证会上指出，前总统特朗普希望司法部将他的选举谎言“合法化”，并对多名官员进行施压。白宫律师埃里克·赫施曼作证称，前司法部高级官员杰弗里·克拉克（Jeffrey Clark）曾表示想利用司法部权力协助特朗普的计划。10、奥密克戎BA.4/5来势汹汹：免疫逃逸能力最强变异株 重复感染根据美国疾控中心（CDC）近日发布的数据，奥密克戎新变异株BA.4和BA.5正在美国占据主导，已经占据了美国新增病例的34.9%。令人担忧的是，研究显示，BA.4/5是目前为止免疫逃逸能力最强的新冠病毒变异株，可以重复感染，能走肺，这些特征意味着它们可能导致更多的住院和死亡。11、桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元桥水对欧洲股票的做空押注增加一倍，至105亿美元，在过去一周几乎翻了一番，对该地区股市的看空力度达到两年来的最高水平。根据汇编数据，这家全球最大的对冲基金公司披露了对28家公司的空头押注，其中包括对阿斯麦、道达尔、赛诺菲和思爱普的个人押注超过5亿美元。上周数据显示，桥水已成为欧洲股市的最大空头，大举押注逾57亿美元做空欧股。基于监管文件汇总的数据显示，这些投资中包括对半导体制造商阿斯麦10亿美元的空头押注以及对道达尔约7.52亿美元的空头押注。该公司本月做空的欧洲公司数量已增至18家。12、俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯可能会逐步改用卢布征收粮食关税，并考虑减免粮食出口关税。13、欧洲央行官员Kazimir：欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5%-2%欧洲央行管理委员会成员，担任斯洛伐克央行行长的Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行可能在未来12个月内将利率提高超过200个基点，使利率从现在开始的一年后达到1.5%-2%。Kazimir预计7月加息25个基点，然后9月可能加息50个基点。“这一切都取决于即将到来的数据。”Kazimir表示，一些欧元区国家可能陷入“技术性衰退”。14、德国总理朔尔茨：欧盟必须做好扩张的准备当地时间周四（6月23日），德国总理朔尔茨表示，鉴于乌克兰和摩尔多瓦将获得候选国身份，欧盟应该为扩大做好准备。朔尔茨强调，为了让更大的联盟发挥作用，更多的决定应该采取多数表决通过的原则，而不是要求全体一致通过。目前，在关键决策上欧盟采取的是一致通过原则，这意味着欧盟27个成员国均有权一票否决自己不认可的政策。此前，由于匈牙利等国的反对，欧盟拖延了约一个月时间，才正式推出针对俄罗斯的第六轮制裁。15、通胀达到21年高位 墨西哥央行宣布加息75基点在数据显示6月初物价同比升幅达到21年高位后，墨西哥央行周四加快了升息步伐。墨西哥央行将关键利率上调75个基点至7.75%，符合接受调查的所有27位经济学家的预期。此次加息幅度也是该行2008年采用通胀目标制以来最大，并且与美联储上周的加息幅度相同。墨西哥央行通常倾向于效仿美联储的利率决定，以避免资本突然外流。俄乌局势1、欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国欧洲理事会主席米歇尔当地时间23日宣布，当天的欧盟峰会同意批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国，格鲁吉亚为潜在候选国。米歇尔称这是一个历史性的时刻，标志着乌克兰向欧盟迈出了关键一步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，这一决定不仅加强了乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚三国的力量，同时也加强了欧盟的实力。欧盟峰会的这项决定是应欧盟委员会本月17日的建议作出的。2、泽连斯基：乌获得欧盟候选国地位 是乌克兰与欧盟关系独一无二的历史时刻当地时间23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基就乌克兰获得欧盟候选国地位在官方社交媒体上发文称，这是乌克兰与欧盟关系中独一无二的历史时刻，并对欧盟领导人的支持表示感谢。3、美官员：美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助据美联社当地时间6月23日报道，美国官员表示，美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助，包括“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统、弹药和其他物资。据悉，美国政府曾在15日宣布向乌克兰额外提供10亿美元的军事援助。4、德国警告俄罗斯或引发能源市场崩溃德国警告说，俄罗斯削减欧洲天然气供应可能引发能源市场崩溃，影响力不亚于当年雷曼兄弟引爆金融危机。在将德国天然气风险级别上调至第二高的“警戒”水平后，经济部长Robert Habeck表示，由于被迫以高价补平损失的气量，能源供应商的亏损正在日益增加，对当地公用事业行业及其用户（包括消费者和企业）可能存在溢出风险。Habeck在柏林召开的新闻发布会上表示，“如果亏损大到以他们不能承受，那么整个市场就会在某个时刻崩塌。这是能源系统的雷曼效应。”5、受对俄制裁影响 日本建筑木材供应难由于俄乌冲突持续造成国际产业链以及供应链的混乱，给世界多国都带来越来越多的影响。日本因为地震多发，建筑很多都采用木质结构，因而对木材的需求量非常大。俄乌冲突发生后，日本无法再大量进口俄罗斯木材，这给日本木材的供应造成了很大影响。公司新闻1、耐克将全面退出俄罗斯市场美国运动品牌耐克(Nike)当地时间周四在一份电子邮件声明中称，在俄罗斯业务暂停三个月后，该品牌将全面退出俄罗斯市场。分析指出，对耐克来说，这一举措在很大程度上是象征性的，不会产生什么实质性影响。来自乌克兰和俄罗斯两国的收入加起来也不到耐克总收入的1%。2、英特尔称国会延误恐导致俄亥俄工厂计划缩水在周四发送给媒体的声明中，英特尔明确表示：“不幸的是，美国国会的CHIPS芯片法案进展缓慢，公司也不知道到底什么时候能有结果。现在是国会采取行动的时候了，这样英特尔才能以长期以来为俄亥俄州以及其他项目设想的速度和规模向前推进。”根据当地媒体报道，英特尔俄亥俄工厂的开工仪式原定于7月22日举行，但公司周三向俄亥俄州州长Mike DeWine的办公室和俄亥俄州国会代表团成员通报将会推迟破土的时间。3、电子烟制造商遭重创！FDA禁止JUUL产品进入美国市场美国FDA周四宣布，将禁止Juul电子烟在美国市场进行销售或分销，监管称“缺乏足够证据”显示该产品的销售对于公共健康是合适的。Juul首席执行官Joe Murillo回应称不认可FDA的判断，将穷尽监管和相关法律的选项，寻求继续留在美国市场的方法。4、美国上诉法院驳回对思科不利的27亿美元侵权赔偿当地时间周四，美国联邦上诉法院作出判决，撤销下级法院支持Centripetal控告思科专利侵权案的赔偿，原因是审理此案的法官摩根在明知自己妻子持有思科股票的前提下，并没有采取回避措施。当时摩根判决思科向Centripetal支付19亿美元的侵权赔偿，加上专利授权许可费，整体赔偿金将超过27亿美元。5、营收增速放缓，Netflix裁员300人据当地媒体报道，流媒体巨头奈飞继上个月裁员150人后，又在近期裁掉了300名员工，约等于整个公司3%的雇员。随后公司也确认了这一事项，并表示作出这些调整是为了确保成本与营收增速下滑相匹配。6、美国能源部长会见七大油企高管根据美国能源部的公告，周四能源部长格兰霍姆与七家美国主要油企的CEO和高管举行了线下会谈，并提醒这些企业必须拿出解决方案确保安全、可负担的燃油供应。根据当地媒体报道，美国第四大炼油商菲利普斯66公司（Phillips 66）威尔明顿炼油厂6月23日报告发生意外火灾。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EVS.SI":0.9,"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043498984,"gmtCreate":1655948971248,"gmtModify":1676535738467,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043498984","repostId":"2245324562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043948713,"gmtCreate":1655865103132,"gmtModify":1676535721669,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043948713","repostId":"1122597144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049883802,"gmtCreate":1655774469807,"gmtModify":1676535702333,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049883802","repostId":"689546098","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":689546098,"gmtCreate":1655767800000,"gmtModify":1676533246228,"author":{"id":"3524105778590481","authorId":"3524105778590481","name":"面包财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840a0ca857820031307544fe7310d6af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105778590481","authorIdStr":"3524105778590481"},"themes":[],"title":"【基金觀察】中金基金：近一年10只產品被清算，是否會觸發監管部門“審慎性措施”？","htmlText":"編者按： 證監會此前發佈題爲《優化公募基金註冊機制 促進行業高質量發展》的機構監管情況通報，突出扶優限劣的監管導向，進一步優化基金註冊機制。 《通報》提出要對公募基金“產品開發能力弱，迷你基金、基金清盤、募集失敗、已批未募產品變更註冊數量較多”等問題加強監管。敦促基金管理人提升投研核心能力、合規風控能力、充分保護投資者合法權益。 麪包財經近期將對標相關政策，深入研究一些典型公募基金的合規與運營案例。 對基金清算數據統計發現，近一年來九泰基金、中金基金所清算的基金產品數量分別爲11只、10只，在行業中居前。九泰基金此前已經做了初步研究，本篇主要分析中金基金。 中金基金的母公司爲中金公司，股東背景雄厚，爲何會出現多隻產品清算、清盤的情況？ 圖1：近一年基金公司清算產品數量 中金基金旗下的中金泰順12個月、中金瑞泰、中金瑞康等多隻主動權益類基金產品成立僅1年多，甚至不足1年的時間便清算，原因均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金基金多隻清算的基金產品機構投資者持有比例普遍較高，較高的份額集中度疊加機構投資者的集中鉅額贖回，成中金基金多隻產品遭清算的原因之一。 此外，中金基金旗下6只存續基金規模不足6000萬元，規模“迷你”，也在一定程度上面臨清算壓力。 &nbsp;高開低走：部分產品封閉期結束後規模急劇萎縮&nbsp; 中金基金成立於2014年，由中國國際金融股份有限公司發起設立並100%持股。截至2022年一季度末，中金基金在管基金產品逾30只，管理規模近900億元。 近一年來（截至2022年6月15日，下同），中金基金旗下有10只產品遭清算。從投資類型來看，這些被清算的基金產品類型包括被動指數型基金、偏股混合型基金、靈活配置型基金等。從清算原因上看，均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金泰順12個月（","listText":"編者按： 證監會此前發佈題爲《優化公募基金註冊機制 促進行業高質量發展》的機構監管情況通報，突出扶優限劣的監管導向，進一步優化基金註冊機制。 《通報》提出要對公募基金“產品開發能力弱，迷你基金、基金清盤、募集失敗、已批未募產品變更註冊數量較多”等問題加強監管。敦促基金管理人提升投研核心能力、合規風控能力、充分保護投資者合法權益。 麪包財經近期將對標相關政策，深入研究一些典型公募基金的合規與運營案例。 對基金清算數據統計發現，近一年來九泰基金、中金基金所清算的基金產品數量分別爲11只、10只，在行業中居前。九泰基金此前已經做了初步研究，本篇主要分析中金基金。 中金基金的母公司爲中金公司，股東背景雄厚，爲何會出現多隻產品清算、清盤的情況？ 圖1：近一年基金公司清算產品數量 中金基金旗下的中金泰順12個月、中金瑞泰、中金瑞康等多隻主動權益類基金產品成立僅1年多，甚至不足1年的時間便清算，原因均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金基金多隻清算的基金產品機構投資者持有比例普遍較高，較高的份額集中度疊加機構投資者的集中鉅額贖回，成中金基金多隻產品遭清算的原因之一。 此外，中金基金旗下6只存續基金規模不足6000萬元，規模“迷你”，也在一定程度上面臨清算壓力。 &nbsp;高開低走：部分產品封閉期結束後規模急劇萎縮&nbsp; 中金基金成立於2014年，由中國國際金融股份有限公司發起設立並100%持股。截至2022年一季度末，中金基金在管基金產品逾30只，管理規模近900億元。 近一年來（截至2022年6月15日，下同），中金基金旗下有10只產品遭清算。從投資類型來看，這些被清算的基金產品類型包括被動指數型基金、偏股混合型基金、靈活配置型基金等。從清算原因上看，均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金泰順12個月（","text":"編者按： 證監會此前發佈題爲《優化公募基金註冊機制 促進行業高質量發展》的機構監管情況通報，突出扶優限劣的監管導向，進一步優化基金註冊機制。 《通報》提出要對公募基金“產品開發能力弱，迷你基金、基金清盤、募集失敗、已批未募產品變更註冊數量較多”等問題加強監管。敦促基金管理人提升投研核心能力、合規風控能力、充分保護投資者合法權益。 麪包財經近期將對標相關政策，深入研究一些典型公募基金的合規與運營案例。 對基金清算數據統計發現，近一年來九泰基金、中金基金所清算的基金產品數量分別爲11只、10只，在行業中居前。九泰基金此前已經做了初步研究，本篇主要分析中金基金。 中金基金的母公司爲中金公司，股東背景雄厚，爲何會出現多隻產品清算、清盤的情況？ 圖1：近一年基金公司清算產品數量 中金基金旗下的中金泰順12個月、中金瑞泰、中金瑞康等多隻主動權益類基金產品成立僅1年多，甚至不足1年的時間便清算，原因均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金基金多隻清算的基金產品機構投資者持有比例普遍較高，較高的份額集中度疊加機構投資者的集中鉅額贖回，成中金基金多隻產品遭清算的原因之一。 此外，中金基金旗下6只存續基金規模不足6000萬元，規模“迷你”，也在一定程度上面臨清算壓力。 高開低走：部分產品封閉期結束後規模急劇萎縮 中金基金成立於2014年，由中國國際金融股份有限公司發起設立並100%持股。截至2022年一季度末，中金基金在管基金產品逾30只，管理規模近900億元。 近一年來（截至2022年6月15日，下同），中金基金旗下有10只產品遭清算。從投資類型來看，這些被清算的基金產品類型包括被動指數型基金、偏股混合型基金、靈活配置型基金等。從清算原因上看，均是存續期內基金資產規模不滿足基金合同中的約定，從而觸發合同終止條款。 中金泰順12個月（","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a66977bcf5114a3f83347d8db17ced70"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09e6fcb4b67499e9ad21521c902dedc"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0416b954ee5c4e52bd9dfe6a7fd0ec54"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/689546098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9041887135,"gmtCreate":1656033422127,"gmtModify":1676535754834,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041887135","repostId":"1147384376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147384376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656028464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147384376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 07:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | US stocks staged a dramatic rebound! Chinese concept stocks stood out, with XPeng Automotive rising nearly 8%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147384376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks collectively closed higher, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ②US crude oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both US PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Associates doubled its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed higher overnight, with most US tech stocks rising.</p><p>At the close of trading, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>Most U.S. tech stocks closed higher, among them...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose 2.26%; The concept of economic restart mostly weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>United Airlines fell 0.92%, and United Airlines fell 2.48%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell 2.33%. In addition, internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer goods, and pharmaceutical sectors all surged.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p>Regarding other Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It closed up 6.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Dada rose over 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose over 5%, and Bilibili...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Teeth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Pink sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It rose more than 1%, after ending a three-day losing streak on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It closed down nearly 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with the German DAX index falling 1.72%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across all three major indices. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, the UK's FTSE index fell 1%, and the EuroStoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 1.8% on Thursday, hitting its lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to settle at $104.27 a barrel, their lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike could trigger an economic recession, thereby dampening fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline.</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool usage hit a new record of $2.285 trillion.</p><p>Use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. Eighty-nine participants spent $2.285 trillion, surpassing the previous high of $2.259 trillion reached on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight interest rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change with the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p>2. Powell reiterated his \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, stating that an economic recession is not inevitable.</p><p>Despite Democrats warning of the risk of a recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation is \"unconditional.\" Another Federal Reserve governor supports another 75 basis point rate hike next month. Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"Our overheated labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we're still a long way from our inflation target. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation down to 2%, because without that, we won't be able to achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve still hopes for a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be difficult.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on current inflation data, I expect rate hike to set 75 basis points at the next meeting, and rate hike should set it at least 50 basis points at subsequent meetings, provided the data supports it. Depending on economic developments, the federal funds rate target range may need to be further raised later.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008.</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States climbed again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield. The previous week, the interest rate posted its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Declining US business activity and soaring inflation have led to a contraction in factory orders and production.</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step toward a decline in June as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand in the service sector and led to a direct contraction in factory orders and production. S&P Global's preliminary reading of the U.S. Composite Output Index for June, released on Thursday, fell 2.4 points to 51.2. Although still above 50, this is the second lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the recession caused by the pandemic.</p><p>6. Is the US economy showing signs of decline? Both PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows.</p><p>Financial Analysis Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by S&P Global on Thursday (June 23) shows that both the U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) fell more than expected in June. Specific data shows that the preliminary US manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.4, a 23-month low, far below market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The preliminary reading of the manufacturing output index was 49.6, a 24-month low, far below the previous month's 55.2. The preliminary reading of the Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for June was 51.6, significantly lower than the market expectation of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, hitting a five-month low and marking the third time it has fallen below 52 since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturned a New York State gun law that would allow more people to legally own guns.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York State in a major ruling on gun rights, allowing more people to legally carry guns on the streets. The judges voted six to three to overturn a restrictive New York state gun law that required people to demonstrate a special need to carry a firearm in order to obtain a license to carry one in public. The judges said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to 'keep and bear arms'. It is understood that similar laws exist in California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, which may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. A U.S. senator sent a letter to Biden stating that he should consider restricting crude oil exports.</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators are urging President Biden to limit crude oil exports in order to secure oil supplies for the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin, and Jeanne Shaheen stated that the “severe spike” in energy prices justified the use of this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil company executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House Special Investigative Committee held its fifth public hearing regarding the Capitol riot.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. House Select Committee on Investigations held its fifth public hearing on its investigation into the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigative committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to “legitimize” his election lies and put pressure on several officials. White House counsel Eric Hirschman testified that former senior Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark had expressed a desire to use the Justice Department's power to assist Trump's plans.</p><p>10. Omeprone BA.4/5 is on the rise: the variant with the strongest immune escape ability is repeatedly infected.</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the new Omeprone variants BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating in the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the country. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is the virus mutation strain of COVID-19 with the strongest immune escape capacity to date. It can reinfect and can travel through the lungs, characteristics that mean they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Associates doubles its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion.</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, bringing its bearish outlook on the region's stock markets to its highest level in two years. According to compiled data, the world's largest hedge fund disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>Personal bets with SAP exceeded $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion to short European stocks. Data compiled from regulatory filings shows that these investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor manufacturer ASML and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>Short bets of approximately $752 million. The number of European companies the company has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>According to Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to levying grain tariffs in rubles and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates could reach 1.5%-2% within a year.</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and governor of the Central Bank of Slovakia, said the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, bringing them to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July, and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. “It all depends on the upcoming data,” Kazimir said, adding that some Eurozone countries may fall into a “technical recession.”</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion.</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that the EU should prepare for enlargement, given that Ukraine and Moldova will receive candidate status. Scholz emphasized that in order for the larger coalition to work, more decisions should be made by majority vote rather than requiring unanimity. Currently, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies they do not approve of. Previously, due to opposition from countries such as Hungary, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high; Mexico's central bank announces 75 basis point rate hike.</p><p>The Bank of Mexico accelerated its pace of interest rate hikes on Thursday after data showed year-on-year price increases reached a 21-year high in early June. The Bank of Mexico raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with the expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. This rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted its inflation targeting system in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank typically tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries.</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day had agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries, and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called it a historic moment, marking a crucial step for Ukraine towards the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that this decision not only strengthens the power of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision at the EU summit was made in response to a recommendation from the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's acquisition of EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU.</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on his official social media about Ukraine's EU candidate status, saying it was a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relationship with the EU and expressing his gratitude for the support of EU leaders.</p><p>3. US official: The US will provide an additional $450 million in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23 local time, U.S. officials said the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military aid, including HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket systems, ammunition, and other supplies. It is reported that the US government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia it could trigger an energy market collapse.</p><p>Germany has warned that Russia's cuts to European natural gas supplies could trigger an energy market collapse with the same impact as Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest, \"alert,\" Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that energy suppliers are incurring increasing losses as they are forced to offset lost gas volumes at high prices, posing a potential spillover risk to the local utility industry and its users, including consumers and businesses. At a press conference in Berlin, Habeck said, \"If the losses are too large for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Due to sanctions against Russia, Japan faces difficulties in supplying construction timber.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt international industrial and supply chains, bringing increasing impacts to many countries around the world. Because Japan is prone to earthquakes, many buildings use wooden structures, resulting in a huge demand for wood. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large quantities of Russian timber, which had a significant impact on Japan's timber supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will completely withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sportswear brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after a three-month suspension of its operations in Russia. Analysts point out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will not have any substantial impact. Revenue from Ukraine and Russia combined accounts for less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Congressional delays could lead to a scaling back of the Ohio factory plan.</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company does not know when it will see results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale it has long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled for July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that the groundbreaking would be postponed.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers have suffered a severe blow! FDA bans JUUL products from the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban the sale or distribution of Juul e-cigarettes in the U.S. market, stating that there is \"insufficient evidence\" to show that the product's sale is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he does not agree with the FDA's judgment and will exhaust regulatory and related legal options to seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals dismissed the case.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion infringement compensation</p><p>On Thursday local time, a U.S. federal appeals court ruled to overturn a lower court's decision to uphold Centripetal's patent infringement lawsuit against Cisco because Judge Morgan, who heard the case, did not take recusal measures knowing that his wife held Cisco stock. At the time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement damages, which, including patent licensing fees, would bring the total damages to more than $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix lays off 300 employees as revenue growth slows.</a></p><p>According to local media reports, after laying off 150 employees last month, streaming giant Netflix recently laid off another 300 employees, equivalent to about 3% of the company's total workforce. The company subsequently confirmed the matter and stated that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives from seven major oil companies</p><p>According to a statement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with the CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure a safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth-largest oil refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>An accidental fire was reported at the Wilmington refinery on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | US stocks staged a dramatic rebound! Chinese concept stocks stood out, with XPeng Automotive rising nearly 8%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | US stocks staged a dramatic rebound! Chinese concept stocks stood out, with XPeng Automotive rising nearly 8%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-24 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks collectively closed higher, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ②US crude oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both US PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Associates doubled its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed higher overnight, with most US tech stocks rising.</p><p>At the close of trading, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>Most U.S. tech stocks closed higher, among them...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose 2.26%; The concept of economic restart mostly weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>United Airlines fell 0.92%, and United Airlines fell 2.48%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell 2.33%. In addition, internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer goods, and pharmaceutical sectors all surged.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the new energy vehicle sector leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p>Regarding other Chinese concept stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It closed up 6.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It rose nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Dada rose over 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose over 5%, and Bilibili...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Teeth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Pink sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It rose more than 1%, after ending a three-day losing streak on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It closed down nearly 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with the German DAX index falling 1.72%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across all three major indices. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, the UK's FTSE index fell 1%, and the EuroStoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 1.8% on Thursday, hitting its lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to settle at $104.27 a barrel, their lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike could trigger an economic recession, thereby dampening fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline.</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool usage hit a new record of $2.285 trillion.</p><p>Use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. Eighty-nine participants spent $2.285 trillion, surpassing the previous high of $2.259 trillion reached on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight interest rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change with the Federal Reserve's policies.</p><p>2. Powell reiterated his \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, stating that an economic recession is not inevitable.</p><p>Despite Democrats warning of the risk of a recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation is \"unconditional.\" Another Federal Reserve governor supports another 75 basis point rate hike next month. Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"Our overheated labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we're still a long way from our inflation target. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation down to 2%, because without that, we won't be able to achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve still hopes for a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be difficult.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on current inflation data, I expect rate hike to set 75 basis points at the next meeting, and rate hike should set it at least 50 basis points at subsequent meetings, provided the data supports it. Depending on economic developments, the federal funds rate target range may need to be further raised later.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008.</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States climbed again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield. The previous week, the interest rate posted its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Declining US business activity and soaring inflation have led to a contraction in factory orders and production.</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step toward a decline in June as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand in the service sector and led to a direct contraction in factory orders and production. S&P Global's preliminary reading of the U.S. Composite Output Index for June, released on Thursday, fell 2.4 points to 51.2. Although still above 50, this is the second lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the recession caused by the pandemic.</p><p>6. Is the US economy showing signs of decline? Both PMI indicators fell to near two-year lows.</p><p>Financial Analysis Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by S&P Global on Thursday (June 23) shows that both the U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) fell more than expected in June. Specific data shows that the preliminary US manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.4, a 23-month low, far below market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The preliminary reading of the manufacturing output index was 49.6, a 24-month low, far below the previous month's 55.2. The preliminary reading of the Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for June was 51.6, significantly lower than the market expectation of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, hitting a five-month low and marking the third time it has fallen below 52 since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturned a New York State gun law that would allow more people to legally own guns.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York State in a major ruling on gun rights, allowing more people to legally carry guns on the streets. The judges voted six to three to overturn a restrictive New York state gun law that required people to demonstrate a special need to carry a firearm in order to obtain a license to carry one in public. The judges said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to 'keep and bear arms'. It is understood that similar laws exist in California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, which may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. A U.S. senator sent a letter to Biden stating that he should consider restricting crude oil exports.</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators are urging President Biden to limit crude oil exports in order to secure oil supplies for the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin, and Jeanne Shaheen stated that the “severe spike” in energy prices justified the use of this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil company executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House Special Investigative Committee held its fifth public hearing regarding the Capitol riot.</p><p>On June 23 local time, the U.S. House Select Committee on Investigations held its fifth public hearing on its investigation into the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigative committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to “legitimize” his election lies and put pressure on several officials. White House counsel Eric Hirschman testified that former senior Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark had expressed a desire to use the Justice Department's power to assist Trump's plans.</p><p>10. Omeprone BA.4/5 is on the rise: the variant with the strongest immune escape ability is repeatedly infected.</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the new Omeprone variants BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating in the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the country. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is the virus mutation strain of COVID-19 with the strongest immune escape capacity to date. It can reinfect and can travel through the lungs, characteristics that mean they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Associates doubles its bet on shorting European stocks to $10.5 billion.</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, bringing its bearish outlook on the region's stock markets to its highest level in two years. According to compiled data, the world's largest hedge fund disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>Personal bets with SAP exceeded $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion to short European stocks. Data compiled from regulatory filings shows that these investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor manufacturer ASML and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>Short bets of approximately $752 million. The number of European companies the company has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia is considering reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>According to Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to levying grain tariffs in rubles and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates could reach 1.5%-2% within a year.</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and governor of the Central Bank of Slovakia, said the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, bringing them to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July, and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. “It all depends on the upcoming data,” Kazimir said, adding that some Eurozone countries may fall into a “technical recession.”</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion.</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that the EU should prepare for enlargement, given that Ukraine and Moldova will receive candidate status. Scholz emphasized that in order for the larger coalition to work, more decisions should be made by majority vote rather than requiring unanimity. Currently, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies they do not approve of. Previously, due to opposition from countries such as Hungary, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high; Mexico's central bank announces 75 basis point rate hike.</p><p>The Bank of Mexico accelerated its pace of interest rate hikes on Thursday after data showed year-on-year price increases reached a 21-year high in early June. The Bank of Mexico raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with the expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. This rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted its inflation targeting system in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank typically tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries.</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day had agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries, and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called it a historic moment, marking a crucial step for Ukraine towards the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that this decision not only strengthens the power of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision at the EU summit was made in response to a recommendation from the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's acquisition of EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU.</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on his official social media about Ukraine's EU candidate status, saying it was a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relationship with the EU and expressing his gratitude for the support of EU leaders.</p><p>3. US official: The US will provide an additional $450 million in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23 local time, U.S. officials said the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military aid, including HIMAS high-mobility multiple rocket systems, ammunition, and other supplies. It is reported that the US government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia it could trigger an energy market collapse.</p><p>Germany has warned that Russia's cuts to European natural gas supplies could trigger an energy market collapse with the same impact as Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest, \"alert,\" Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that energy suppliers are incurring increasing losses as they are forced to offset lost gas volumes at high prices, posing a potential spillover risk to the local utility industry and its users, including consumers and businesses. At a press conference in Berlin, Habeck said, \"If the losses are too large for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Due to sanctions against Russia, Japan faces difficulties in supplying construction timber.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt international industrial and supply chains, bringing increasing impacts to many countries around the world. Because Japan is prone to earthquakes, many buildings use wooden structures, resulting in a huge demand for wood. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large quantities of Russian timber, which had a significant impact on Japan's timber supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will completely withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sportswear brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after a three-month suspension of its operations in Russia. Analysts point out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will not have any substantial impact. Revenue from Ukraine and Russia combined accounts for less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Congressional delays could lead to a scaling back of the Ohio factory plan.</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company does not know when it will see results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale it has long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled for July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that the groundbreaking would be postponed.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers have suffered a severe blow! FDA bans JUUL products from the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban the sale or distribution of Juul e-cigarettes in the U.S. market, stating that there is \"insufficient evidence\" to show that the product's sale is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he does not agree with the FDA's judgment and will exhaust regulatory and related legal options to seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals dismissed the case.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion infringement compensation</p><p>On Thursday local time, a U.S. federal appeals court ruled to overturn a lower court's decision to uphold Centripetal's patent infringement lawsuit against Cisco because Judge Morgan, who heard the case, did not take recusal measures knowing that his wife held Cisco stock. At the time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement damages, which, including patent licensing fees, would bring the total damages to more than $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix lays off 300 employees as revenue growth slows.</a></p><p>According to local media reports, after laying off 150 employees last month, streaming giant Netflix recently laid off another 300 employees, equivalent to about 3% of the company's total workforce. The company subsequently confirmed the matter and stated that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives from seven major oil companies</p><p>According to a statement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with the CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure a safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth-largest oil refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>An accidental fire was reported at the Wilmington refinery on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","09868":"小鹏集团-W","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4555":"新能源车","XPEV":"小鹏集团","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1587":"次新股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147384376","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收高 美国科技股多数走高美股收盘，三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨1.62%，标普500指数涨0.95%。美国科技股收盘多数走高，其中苹果涨2.16%、特斯拉跌0.43%、亚马逊涨3.20%、谷歌A涨0.68%、奈飞涨1.58%、微软涨2.26%；经济重启概念多数走弱，美国航空跌0.92%、联合航空跌2.48%、皇家加勒比邮轮跌1.69%、波音跌2.33%。此外，互联网科技股、新能源汽车、消费和医药板块全数大涨。2、热门中概股多数收涨 新能源车板块领涨热门中概股周四多数收涨，新能源车板块领涨，小鹏汽车涨近8%，理想汽车涨6.6%，比亚迪ADR涨3.7%，蔚来涨超2%。其他中概股方面，拼多多收涨6.4%，百度涨2.4%，京东涨近0.8%，而网易跌近0.9%。叮咚买菜涨超7%，阿里巴巴、达达涨逾6%，电子烟第一股雾芯科技涨逾5%，B站、爱奇艺涨超3%，好未来、虎牙、迅雷涨超2%，腾讯粉单、满帮、金山云、知乎涨超1%，而周三刚结束三连跌的新东方收跌近9%，斗鱼跌逾4%，高途教育跌0.5%，网易有道跌近0.4%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX指数跌1.72%欧股收盘，三大股指全线收跌。德国DAX指数跌1.72%，法国CAC指数跌0.56%，英国富时指数跌1%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周四收跌1.8% 创5月10日以来最低收盘价美国原油期货价格周四录得连续第二个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅为1.81%，收于每桶104.27美元，创5月10日以来的最低收盘价。投资者担心美联储激进加息可能引发经济衰退，从而抑制燃料需求。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.5% 连续第四日收跌纽约黄金期货价格周四录得连续第四个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌8.60美元，跌幅为0.5%，报收于每盎司1829.80美元。分析师指出，周四黄金价格下跌的主要原因是美元走强，而美元走强的原因是市场预期美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的货币政策。国际宏观1、美联储逆回购工具使用量创下2.285万亿美元的新纪录美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量周四再创新高。89个参与方动用2.285万亿美元，超过周三触及的前期高点2.259万亿美元。该工具支付隔夜利率0.80%；其利率跟随美联储政策而变化。2、鲍威尔重申“无条件”抗通胀承诺 称经济衰退并非不可避免尽管民主党人警告经济衰退风险，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，联储抗通胀的承诺是“无条件的”。另一位美联储理事支持下个月再次升息75个基点。鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证时表示，“我们劳动力市场的过热有点不可持续，现在离通胀目标还很遥远。我们真的需要恢复物价稳定，让通胀率回落至2%，因为如果不这样做的话，将无法实现可持续的充分就业。”鲍威尔重申， 美联储仍然希望经济实现软着陆，尽管过程会比较艰难。3、美联储理事Bowman支持在7月加息75个基点美联储理事Michelle Bowman表示，她支持7月升息75个基点，之后再进行几次50基点的加息。Bowman在为马萨诸塞州银行家协会组织的一场活动准备的发言中说，“基于当前的通胀数据，我预计下次会议上加息75个基点是合适的，只要数据支持，在此后的几次会议上应该加息至少50个基点。根据经济的发展情况，之后可能还需要进一步提高联邦基金目标利率区间。”4、美国抵押贷款利率升至5.81% 创2008年以来最高水平美国的抵押贷款利率再次攀升，创14年来高位。房地美在周四发布的声明中称，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.81%，高于上周的5.78%。这个走势与10年期美债收益率的下滑背道而驰。此前一周该利率创下1987年以来最大周升幅。5、美国企业活动下降 通胀飙升导致工厂订单和生产萎缩美国企业活动6月向回落迈出了坚定一步，因快速走高的通胀降低了服务业需求，并导致工厂订单和生产径直萎缩。S&P Global周四发布的6月份美国综合产出指数初值下滑2.4点至51.2。虽然仍高于50，但这已是2020年7月以来的次低水平，当时经济正在竭力摆脱疫情引发的衰退。6、美国经济颓势尽显？两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位附近金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）周四（6月23日）公布的最新数据报告显示，6月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）均出现了超于预期的跌幅。具体数据显示，美国6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57；制造业产出指数初值录得49.6，刷新24个月低位，远不及上月的55.2。6月商务活动指数（服务业PMI）初值录得51.6，显著低于市场预期的53.5和5月的53.4，刷新5个月低位，为2020年7月以来第三次跌至52以下。7、美国最高法院推翻纽约州一项枪支法律 将允许更多人合法持枪当地时间6月23日，美国最高法院在一项有关持枪权的重大裁决中推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，将允许更多人在街道上合法持枪。法官们以6票赞成、3票反对的结果推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，该法律要求人们证明自己特别需要携带枪支，才能获得在公共场合携带枪支的执照。法官们表示，这一要求违反了第二修正案“持有和携带武器”的权利。据悉，美国加利福尼亚州、夏威夷、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新泽西州和罗得岛州都有类似的法律，可能会因这项裁决而受到挑战。8、美国参议员致函拜登 称其应当考虑限制原油出口美国民主党参议员敦促总统拜登限制原油出口，从而保障美国及其盟友的的石油供应。参议员Jack Reed、Tammy Duckworth、Tammy Baldwin和Jeanne Shaheen在一封信函中表示，能源价格“严重飙升”给使用这一权力提供了理由。美国能源部长Jennifer Granholm定于今天与石油企业高管会面。9、美国会众议院特别调查委员会就国会大厦骚乱事件举行第五场公开听证会当地时间6月23日，美国国会众议院特别调查委员会就去年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件的调查举行第五场公开听证会。特别调查委员会主席本尼·汤普森（Bennie Thompson）在听证会上指出，前总统特朗普希望司法部将他的选举谎言“合法化”，并对多名官员进行施压。白宫律师埃里克·赫施曼作证称，前司法部高级官员杰弗里·克拉克（Jeffrey Clark）曾表示想利用司法部权力协助特朗普的计划。10、奥密克戎BA.4/5来势汹汹：免疫逃逸能力最强变异株 重复感染根据美国疾控中心（CDC）近日发布的数据，奥密克戎新变异株BA.4和BA.5正在美国占据主导，已经占据了美国新增病例的34.9%。令人担忧的是，研究显示，BA.4/5是目前为止免疫逃逸能力最强的新冠病毒变异株，可以重复感染，能走肺，这些特征意味着它们可能导致更多的住院和死亡。11、桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元桥水对欧洲股票的做空押注增加一倍，至105亿美元，在过去一周几乎翻了一番，对该地区股市的看空力度达到两年来的最高水平。根据汇编数据，这家全球最大的对冲基金公司披露了对28家公司的空头押注，其中包括对阿斯麦、道达尔、赛诺菲和思爱普的个人押注超过5亿美元。上周数据显示，桥水已成为欧洲股市的最大空头，大举押注逾57亿美元做空欧股。基于监管文件汇总的数据显示，这些投资中包括对半导体制造商阿斯麦10亿美元的空头押注以及对道达尔约7.52亿美元的空头押注。该公司本月做空的欧洲公司数量已增至18家。12、俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯可能会逐步改用卢布征收粮食关税，并考虑减免粮食出口关税。13、欧洲央行官员Kazimir：欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5%-2%欧洲央行管理委员会成员，担任斯洛伐克央行行长的Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行可能在未来12个月内将利率提高超过200个基点，使利率从现在开始的一年后达到1.5%-2%。Kazimir预计7月加息25个基点，然后9月可能加息50个基点。“这一切都取决于即将到来的数据。”Kazimir表示，一些欧元区国家可能陷入“技术性衰退”。14、德国总理朔尔茨：欧盟必须做好扩张的准备当地时间周四（6月23日），德国总理朔尔茨表示，鉴于乌克兰和摩尔多瓦将获得候选国身份，欧盟应该为扩大做好准备。朔尔茨强调，为了让更大的联盟发挥作用，更多的决定应该采取多数表决通过的原则，而不是要求全体一致通过。目前，在关键决策上欧盟采取的是一致通过原则，这意味着欧盟27个成员国均有权一票否决自己不认可的政策。此前，由于匈牙利等国的反对，欧盟拖延了约一个月时间，才正式推出针对俄罗斯的第六轮制裁。15、通胀达到21年高位 墨西哥央行宣布加息75基点在数据显示6月初物价同比升幅达到21年高位后，墨西哥央行周四加快了升息步伐。墨西哥央行将关键利率上调75个基点至7.75%，符合接受调查的所有27位经济学家的预期。此次加息幅度也是该行2008年采用通胀目标制以来最大，并且与美联储上周的加息幅度相同。墨西哥央行通常倾向于效仿美联储的利率决定，以避免资本突然外流。俄乌局势1、欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国欧洲理事会主席米歇尔当地时间23日宣布，当天的欧盟峰会同意批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国，格鲁吉亚为潜在候选国。米歇尔称这是一个历史性的时刻，标志着乌克兰向欧盟迈出了关键一步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，这一决定不仅加强了乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚三国的力量，同时也加强了欧盟的实力。欧盟峰会的这项决定是应欧盟委员会本月17日的建议作出的。2、泽连斯基：乌获得欧盟候选国地位 是乌克兰与欧盟关系独一无二的历史时刻当地时间23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基就乌克兰获得欧盟候选国地位在官方社交媒体上发文称，这是乌克兰与欧盟关系中独一无二的历史时刻，并对欧盟领导人的支持表示感谢。3、美官员：美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助据美联社当地时间6月23日报道，美国官员表示，美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助，包括“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统、弹药和其他物资。据悉，美国政府曾在15日宣布向乌克兰额外提供10亿美元的军事援助。4、德国警告俄罗斯或引发能源市场崩溃德国警告说，俄罗斯削减欧洲天然气供应可能引发能源市场崩溃，影响力不亚于当年雷曼兄弟引爆金融危机。在将德国天然气风险级别上调至第二高的“警戒”水平后，经济部长Robert Habeck表示，由于被迫以高价补平损失的气量，能源供应商的亏损正在日益增加，对当地公用事业行业及其用户（包括消费者和企业）可能存在溢出风险。Habeck在柏林召开的新闻发布会上表示，“如果亏损大到以他们不能承受，那么整个市场就会在某个时刻崩塌。这是能源系统的雷曼效应。”5、受对俄制裁影响 日本建筑木材供应难由于俄乌冲突持续造成国际产业链以及供应链的混乱，给世界多国都带来越来越多的影响。日本因为地震多发，建筑很多都采用木质结构，因而对木材的需求量非常大。俄乌冲突发生后，日本无法再大量进口俄罗斯木材，这给日本木材的供应造成了很大影响。公司新闻1、耐克将全面退出俄罗斯市场美国运动品牌耐克(Nike)当地时间周四在一份电子邮件声明中称，在俄罗斯业务暂停三个月后，该品牌将全面退出俄罗斯市场。分析指出，对耐克来说，这一举措在很大程度上是象征性的，不会产生什么实质性影响。来自乌克兰和俄罗斯两国的收入加起来也不到耐克总收入的1%。2、英特尔称国会延误恐导致俄亥俄工厂计划缩水在周四发送给媒体的声明中，英特尔明确表示：“不幸的是，美国国会的CHIPS芯片法案进展缓慢，公司也不知道到底什么时候能有结果。现在是国会采取行动的时候了，这样英特尔才能以长期以来为俄亥俄州以及其他项目设想的速度和规模向前推进。”根据当地媒体报道，英特尔俄亥俄工厂的开工仪式原定于7月22日举行，但公司周三向俄亥俄州州长Mike DeWine的办公室和俄亥俄州国会代表团成员通报将会推迟破土的时间。3、电子烟制造商遭重创！FDA禁止JUUL产品进入美国市场美国FDA周四宣布，将禁止Juul电子烟在美国市场进行销售或分销，监管称“缺乏足够证据”显示该产品的销售对于公共健康是合适的。Juul首席执行官Joe Murillo回应称不认可FDA的判断，将穷尽监管和相关法律的选项，寻求继续留在美国市场的方法。4、美国上诉法院驳回对思科不利的27亿美元侵权赔偿当地时间周四，美国联邦上诉法院作出判决，撤销下级法院支持Centripetal控告思科专利侵权案的赔偿，原因是审理此案的法官摩根在明知自己妻子持有思科股票的前提下，并没有采取回避措施。当时摩根判决思科向Centripetal支付19亿美元的侵权赔偿，加上专利授权许可费，整体赔偿金将超过27亿美元。5、营收增速放缓，Netflix裁员300人据当地媒体报道，流媒体巨头奈飞继上个月裁员150人后，又在近期裁掉了300名员工，约等于整个公司3%的雇员。随后公司也确认了这一事项，并表示作出这些调整是为了确保成本与营收增速下滑相匹配。6、美国能源部长会见七大油企高管根据美国能源部的公告，周四能源部长格兰霍姆与七家美国主要油企的CEO和高管举行了线下会谈，并提醒这些企业必须拿出解决方案确保安全、可负担的燃油供应。根据当地媒体报道，美国第四大炼油商菲利普斯66公司（Phillips 66）威尔明顿炼油厂6月23日报告发生意外火灾。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EVS.SI":0.9,"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049035715,"gmtCreate":1655717762437,"gmtModify":1676535692095,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049035715","repostId":"1108859520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023261111,"gmtCreate":1652922137833,"gmtModify":1676535189331,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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10(Z77.SI)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f4af9cba62328d4f2910a1cf9d0bbc3c","width":"1125","height":"1955"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023261111","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069751246,"gmtCreate":1651366782531,"gmtModify":1676534894990,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069751246","repostId":"1190110506","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038859065,"gmtCreate":1646794146395,"gmtModify":1676534163394,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038859065","repostId":"2218340628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031355300,"gmtCreate":1646447757420,"gmtModify":1676534130992,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031355300","repostId":"2216646810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216646810","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646403374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216646810?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 22:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analysis | With strong non-farm payrolls, does the Federal Reserve need to ramp up its efforts to combat inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216646810","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. recorded a seasonally adjusted increase of 678,000 non-farm payrolls in February, the largest increase since July last year, exceeding market expectations. The number of new non-farm payrolls in January was revised upwards from 467,000 to 481,000; The number of new non-farm payrolls in December last year was revised upward from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, the lowest level since February 2020.</p><p>Following the data release, spot gold rose $2 in the short term before giving back its gains. the US Dollar Index rose 32 points in the short term; Non-US currencies generally declined, with the euro falling more than 40 points against the dollar and the pound sterling falling 30 points against the dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of Federal Reserve rate hike has increased compared to before the data was released.</b>The probability of the Federal Reserve reaching a 25 basis point rate hike in March is 97.8%, compared to 95.9% previously. The probability of rate hike reaching 75 basis points in May is 23.5%, compared to 20.9% previously.</p><p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that employment generally increased, primarily driven by growth in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, healthcare, and construction. The Wall Street Journal reported that this indicates a strong labor market performance as the Federal Reserve prepares for rate hike.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said that such a large increase in employment indicates that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this will not increase expectations for the Fed's 50 basis point rate hike, especially given the escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis, but<b>It will indeed make the federal funds situation even more dire later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva points out that wages are a factor that frustrates employees. Although wage growth was higher than expected, wage growth remained flat for the month, increasing by 5.1% compared to the same period last year.<b>The annual increase is still more than double what it was before the pandemic, but far below what any economist had expected.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying sign for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes the report appears to be the kind of report the Federal Reserve would like to see. The labor force participation rate has improved significantly, thus alleviating some of the supply problem, which had previously been one of the problems facing employers.<b>Wage growth has also slowed, so there is little evidence that wages will lead to an inflationary spiral.</b></p><p>Powell had previously announced that he would support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally believed that this jobs report would have virtually no impact on the March decision. The Federal Reserve's Evans also stated that the (employment) report was good news, but<b>It will not change Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's plan.</b></p><p>Currently, the tensions in Ukraine have raised market concerns about economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious statements, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate hike. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike six times this year, with each rate hike increasing by 25 basis points.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The outlook is even more pessimistic, with the agency raising its U.S. inflation forecast and expecting the Federal Reserve to hold more rate hike than expected in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, points out that regardless of which path the Federal Reserve ultimately follows in implementing monetary policy,<b>The real-world impact is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change in the slightest.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve acts too quickly on rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, gold prices face significant room for adjustment. Previously, due to the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upside potential of gold was further compressed, so the downside potential was much larger than the upside potential.</p><p><b>Full Chinese text of the US February non-farm payrolls report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis | With strong non-farm payrolls, does the Federal Reserve need to ramp up its efforts to combat inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis | With strong non-farm payrolls, does the Federal Reserve need to ramp up its efforts to combat inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. recorded a seasonally adjusted increase of 678,000 non-farm payrolls in February, the largest increase since July last year, exceeding market expectations. The number of new non-farm payrolls in January was revised upwards from 467,000 to 481,000; The number of new non-farm payrolls in December last year was revised upward from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, the lowest level since February 2020.</p><p>Following the data release, spot gold rose $2 in the short term before giving back its gains. the US Dollar Index rose 32 points in the short term; Non-US currencies generally declined, with the euro falling more than 40 points against the dollar and the pound sterling falling 30 points against the dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of Federal Reserve rate hike has increased compared to before the data was released.</b>The probability of the Federal Reserve reaching a 25 basis point rate hike in March is 97.8%, compared to 95.9% previously. The probability of rate hike reaching 75 basis points in May is 23.5%, compared to 20.9% previously.</p><p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that employment generally increased, primarily driven by growth in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, healthcare, and construction. The Wall Street Journal reported that this indicates a strong labor market performance as the Federal Reserve prepares for rate hike.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said that such a large increase in employment indicates that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this will not increase expectations for the Fed's 50 basis point rate hike, especially given the escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis, but<b>It will indeed make the federal funds situation even more dire later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva points out that wages are a factor that frustrates employees. Although wage growth was higher than expected, wage growth remained flat for the month, increasing by 5.1% compared to the same period last year.<b>The annual increase is still more than double what it was before the pandemic, but far below what any economist had expected.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying sign for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes the report appears to be the kind of report the Federal Reserve would like to see. The labor force participation rate has improved significantly, thus alleviating some of the supply problem, which had previously been one of the problems facing employers.<b>Wage growth has also slowed, so there is little evidence that wages will lead to an inflationary spiral.</b></p><p>Powell had previously announced that he would support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally believed that this jobs report would have virtually no impact on the March decision. The Federal Reserve's Evans also stated that the (employment) report was good news, but<b>It will not change Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's plan.</b></p><p>Currently, the tensions in Ukraine have raised market concerns about economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious statements, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate hike. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike six times this year, with each rate hike increasing by 25 basis points.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The outlook is even more pessimistic, with the agency raising its U.S. inflation forecast and expecting the Federal Reserve to hold more rate hike than expected in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, points out that regardless of which path the Federal Reserve ultimately follows in implementing monetary policy,<b>The real-world impact is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change in the slightest.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve acts too quickly on rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, gold prices face significant room for adjustment. Previously, due to the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upside potential of gold was further compressed, so the downside potential was much larger than the upside potential.</p><p><b>Full Chinese text of the US February non-farm payrolls report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09feb8feb9c4225b11dae38a4ba99e09","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216646810","content_text":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 美国2月失业率录得3.8%，为2020年2月来新低。数据公布后，现货黄金短线走高2美元后回吐涨幅。美元指数短线走高32点；非美货币普遍走低，欧元兑美元短线下跌逾40点，英镑兑美元短线下跌30点。美联储加息概率较数据公布前上升。美联储3月加息25个基点的概率为97.8%，之前为95.9%；5月加息75个基点的概率为23.5%，之前为20.9%。美国劳工统计局表示，就业普遍增长，主要是休闲和酒店、专业和商业服务、医疗保健和建筑业的增长。华尔街日报称，这表明在美联储准备加息之际，劳动力市场表现强劲。分析师Carl Riccadonna表示，就业人数增幅如此之大，表明今年的失业率将大幅下降。短期内，这不会让美联储加息50个基点预期升温，尤其是在俄乌危机愈演愈烈的情况下，但它确实会让今年晚些时候的联邦基金状况变得更加严峻。分析师Katia Dmitrieva指出，工资是令员工感到沮丧的一个因素。尽管工资增幅高于预期，但当月工资增幅持平，较上年同期增长5.1%。年度增幅仍是大流行前的两倍多，但远低于任何经济学家的预期。在通胀处于40年高点的情况下，这对个人财务状况来说也是一个潜在的令人担忧的信号。分析师Steve Matthews认为，这份报告似乎很符合美联储希望看到的那种报告。劳动力参与率有了很好的提高，因此供给问题得到了一些缓解，而供给此前一直是雇主方面存在的问题之一。工资增速也有所下降，因此没有多少迹象表明工资会导致通胀螺旋式上升。 此前鲍威尔已经宣布他将支持并提议在3月份的会议上加息25个基点，因此市场普遍这份就业报告基本上对3月份的决定没有任何影响。美联储埃文斯也表示，（就业）报告是个好消息，但不会改变美联储主席鲍威尔的计划。 当前，乌克兰的紧张局势引发了市场对经济滞涨的担忧，加上鲍威尔的谨慎表态，市场不再激进押注美联储加息50个基点，预计美联储今年将加息6次，每次加息幅度为25个基点。不过，高盛态度更加悲观，该机构上调美国通胀预测，并预计美联储2023年的加息次数将超过预期。芝商所执行董事兼资深经济学家Erik Norland指出，不论美联储最终按照哪种路径执行货币政策，对现实的影响都是政策收紧，大方向不会有丝毫改变。分析师认为，如果美联储过快加息和缩表，金价则面临很大调整空间。黄金此前在避险资金的扰动下，上方空间被进一步压缩，因此下方空间远大于上方空间。美国2月非农就业报告中文全文","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"QID":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPY":1,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"SImain":1,"GLD":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"GCmain":1,"OEF":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090411314,"gmtCreate":1643243850877,"gmtModify":1676533789437,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090411314","repostId":"2206899529","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045962820,"gmtCreate":1656551978760,"gmtModify":1676535852106,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962820","repostId":"1120000025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120000025","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656546145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120000025?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 07:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | S&P 500 Rebound Fails, Hovering in Bear Market, Poised for Biggest Six-Month Drop Since 1970","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120000025","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① US stocks were mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.27%, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally declining; ② The three central bank governors from Europe and the United States unanimously stated that curbing inflation is the primary task at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice announced that it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks; ④ Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with major tech stocks showing mixed performance.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes the U.S. economy is strong and can withstand rate hike, but a soft landing cannot be guaranteed. At the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11,177.89 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27% to 31,029.31. The S&P 500 fell 0.07% to 3,818.83 points, entering bear territory for the second consecutive day. It closed down more than 20% from its record high on January 3 this year and is poised to record its biggest six-month drop since 1970 by Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points, marking the third consecutive day of declines for both the S&P 500 and the S&P 500, continuing to fall from the highs reached last Friday since June 9.</p><p>Major tech stocks fluctuated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down more than 2%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It rose over 9%, while Ctrip rose 2.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell 4.3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It closed flat. In new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to Grizzlies' short selling claims that the report contained \"numerous errors,\" its U.S. stock fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak. The prospect of a weak global economy has put pressure on oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, at $109.78 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures fell 0.2%, hitting a two-week low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, hitting their lowest closing price in two weeks, marking the third consecutive day of declines. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas prices rose 8% to a three-month high.</p><p>European natural gas prices rebounded strongly. ICE UK gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence per kilocalorie, breaking away from the low hit on June 13, the day before Monday, when they fell 3% on Tuesday. TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at €139.588 per megawatt-hour, a new high since March 8, and a new high in more than three months, following highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The US first-quarter GDP was revised down again! The annualized quarterly rate decline widened to 1.6%.</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis again lowered the U.S. first-quarter GDP growth rate. Specific data shows that the annualized quarterly rate of US GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared to the 1.1% growth expected by economists. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report stated that weakness in personal consumption spending was the main reason for this downgrade. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The US quarterly GDP figures will be released three times. In the preliminary report in April, the annualized quarterly GDP rate fell by 1.4%. In the revised value report, this decrease was expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the United States' performance this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the US economy is strong and the Federal Reserve can avoid a recession.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank’s annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is “strong” and the central bank can bring inflation down to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Powell said raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there are ways to achieve that goal.\"</p><p>3. Democrats discuss reducing tax increases in hopes of passing Biden's economic package in the coming weeks.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Senate Democrats are seeking to reduce tax increases in President Joe Biden's economic package in hopes of reaching an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and getting the plan passed in the coming weeks. Sources familiar with the matter said the adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year, potentially meaning that U.S. businesses and wealthy families would ultimately receive smaller tax increases than Biden and the Democrats initially envisioned.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th; his successor will be Biden's nominee, Jackson.</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th, and will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, Biden's nominee and the first African American female justice in U.S. history. Breyer, 83, has served on the Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal on the Supreme Court and is one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the replacement, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices on the U.S. Supreme Court remains 6:3, which has not changed the current situation.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe Biden has led the United States down the wrong path.</p><p>A poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico shows that 78% of Americans surveyed believe President Biden is leading the United States down the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents believed the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations has filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases.</p><p>On June 29 local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit on the evening of June 28 against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases. These environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the Federal Land Policy and Management Act, and point out that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. The report states that the White House is analyzing what would happen to the economy if oil prices rose to $200.</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, media reports indicated that the Biden administration has begun analyzing and simulating the economic damage that international oil prices would cause when they reach $200 a barrel. As the media commented, economic officials are not studying how to manage a naturally developing economy from recovery to a period of stable growth, but rather analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching $200 a barrel might mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC+ will follow up with a second step after the recent production increase.</p><p>In an interview, Amos Hochstein, senior energy security advisor at the U.S. State Department, said the U.S. welcomed OPEC+'s decision earlier this month to accelerate oil supply growth, calling it a \"significant shift in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" of its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic petroleum reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the US, Iran, and the EU concluded without achieving the expected results.</p><p>On the evening of June 29 local time, negotiations between Iran, the United States, and the European Union aimed at lifting US sanctions against Iran concluded in Doha, the capital of Qatar. \"We have not yet made the progress we had hoped for, but we will continue to work to get the Iran nuclear deal back on track,\" said Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service.</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer regulations under anti-money laundering rules for encryption software.</p><p>The European Parliament announced that EU negotiators have reached an agreement on the regulation of fund transfers under anti-money laundering rules for cryptocurrency software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft 2023 fiscal budget, which plans to reinstate the \"debt brake\" principle.</p><p>According to sources within the German government on June 29 local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will decrease to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to resume compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle starting next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June as the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures.</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as temporary government relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by record-high prices. Data released Wednesday showed that fuel tax cuts and discounts on public transportation costs helped consumer price increases fall to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May. Analysts surveyed had previously estimated an 8.8% increase.</p><p>13. Finnish President: Finland and Sweden will sign an accession protocol no later than July 5th.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Finnish President Niinistö stated at a press conference in Madrid, Spain, that Finland and Sweden would sign an accession protocol no later than July 5.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operation against Ukraine may undergo tactical changes.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the objectives of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin stated that Western calls for Ukraine to continue fighting confirm Russia's suspicions that Western countries do not want to protect Ukraine's interests, but their own. Putin also stated that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice announced it has frozen $330 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs and banks.</p><p>The U.S. Department of Justice stated that the United States and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs, and relevant task forces have already frozen Russian...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funds amount to approximately $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, agents, and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details regarding the seizure of high-value assets owned by Russian business giants. They are trying to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and continue to exert political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Justice Department believes the task force's work is \"not yet complete,\" and the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>The Russian government has responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to retaliate, such as confiscating assets owned by Western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria.</p><p>Following Syria's announcement of recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic,\" Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria that evening. In a regular video on the 29th, Zelensky stated that \"there will be no more relations between Ukraine and Syria,\" and added that Ukraine will also impose stronger sanctions on Syria.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson pledged an additional £1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>On June 29 local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson pledged to provide Ukraine with an additional £1 billion in military aid, bringing the UK's military aid to Ukraine during the current Russia-Ukraine conflict to £2.3 billion. This funding will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare equipment.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: Some Central and Eastern European countries will be severely impacted if Russian natural gas supplies are cut off.</p><p>In a report, international rating agency Fitch Ratings said that a sudden interruption of Russia's natural gas supplies to the EU would have serious impacts on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. The report states that if Russian gas supplies are cut off, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic will be most severely affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania, and Romania have been less affected because they have largely found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">A food giant heavily invested in by Warren Buffett has a falling out with a supermarket chain: won't they allow price increases? Removed from shelves!</a></p><p>According to local British media reports, many of Kraft Heinz's products have been removed from supermarket shelves due to a breakdown in talks between American food producer Kraft Heinz and British supermarket chain Tesco over price increases. As is well known, Kraft Heinz is also a favorite stock of Warren Buffett.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Currently holding 26.61% of the company's shares, it is the company's largest shareholder. A Tesco spokesperson righteously stated that they regretted the change would lead to the removal of many products from shelves, but the supermarket would not pass on unreasonable price increases to their customers, and that consumers had \"many alternatives.\" With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets have a greater responsibility than ever to ensure customers get the best value.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly production in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing sources familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly has been approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab for the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its application for clinical trials of Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signed a $3.2 billion vaccine order with the U.S. government: the price per dose is about $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer announced that it has signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, which is expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | S&P 500 Rebound Fails, Hovering in Bear Market, Poised for Biggest Six-Month Drop Since 1970</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | S&P 500 Rebound Fails, Hovering in Bear Market, Poised for Biggest Six-Month Drop Since 1970\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-30 07:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① US stocks were mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.27%, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.07%, and Chinese concept stocks generally declining; ② The three central bank governors from Europe and the United States unanimously stated that curbing inflation is the primary task at this stage; ③ The U.S. Department of Justice announced that it has frozen $330 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and banks; ④ Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with major tech stocks showing mixed performance.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes the U.S. economy is strong and can withstand rate hike, but a soft landing cannot be guaranteed. At the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 11,177.89 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27% to 31,029.31. The S&P 500 fell 0.07% to 3,818.83 points, entering bear territory for the second consecutive day. It closed down more than 20% from its record high on January 3 this year and is poised to record its biggest six-month drop since 1970 by Thursday. The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 11,177.89 points, marking the third consecutive day of declines for both the S&P 500 and the S&P 500, continuing to fall from the highs reached last Friday since June 9.</p><p>Major tech stocks fluctuated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 1.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 1.79%, while Meta rose 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down more than 2%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Wednesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It rose over 9%, while Ctrip rose 2.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.5%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell 4.3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 0.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It closed flat. In new energy vehicles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>In response to Grizzlies' short selling claims that the report contained \"numerous errors,\" its U.S. stock fell 2.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 2.7%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 1.7%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed lower on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.98%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.77% on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak.</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak. The prospect of a weak global economy has put pressure on oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.98, or 1.77%, at $109.78 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures fell 0.2%, hitting a two-week low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Wednesday, hitting their lowest closing price in two weeks, marking the third consecutive day of declines. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $3.70, or 0.2%, at $1,817.50 an ounce, their lowest closing price since June 14.</p><p>6. European natural gas prices rose 8% to a three-month high.</p><p>European natural gas prices rebounded strongly. ICE UK gas futures closed up 4.42% at 174.12 pence per kilocalorie, breaking away from the low hit on June 13, the day before Monday, when they fell 3% on Tuesday. TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed up 8.03% at €139.588 per megawatt-hour, a new high since March 8, and a new high in more than three months, following highs since March 11 last Wednesday and Thursday.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The US first-quarter GDP was revised down again! The annualized quarterly rate decline widened to 1.6%.</p><p>On Wednesday (June 29) local time, the latest report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis again lowered the U.S. first-quarter GDP growth rate. Specific data shows that the annualized quarterly rate of US GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, which is undoubtedly a huge blow compared to the 1.1% growth expected by economists. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report stated that weakness in personal consumption spending was the main reason for this downgrade. It is worth mentioning that this is the second downward revision of GDP in the first quarter. The US quarterly GDP figures will be released three times. In the preliminary report in April, the annualized quarterly GDP rate fell by 1.4%. In the revised value report, this decrease was expanded to 1.5%. The report also pointed out that the record trade deficit dragged down the United States' performance this quarter.</p><p>2. Powell says the US economy is strong and the Federal Reserve can avoid a recession.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank’s annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is “strong” and the central bank can bring inflation down to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, although the task has become more challenging in recent months. Powell said raising interest rates without triggering a recession is \"our goal, and we believe there are ways to achieve that goal.\"</p><p>3. Democrats discuss reducing tax increases in hopes of passing Biden's economic package in the coming weeks.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Senate Democrats are seeking to reduce tax increases in President Joe Biden's economic package in hopes of reaching an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and getting the plan passed in the coming weeks. Sources familiar with the matter said the adjustments under consideration would weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House last year, potentially meaning that U.S. businesses and wealthy families would ultimately receive smaller tax increases than Biden and the Democrats initially envisioned.</p><p>4. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Breyer will retire on the 30th; his successor will be Biden's nominee, Jackson.</p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that liberal Justice Stephen Breyer will officially retire on the 30th, and will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson, Biden's nominee and the first African American female justice in U.S. history. Breyer, 83, has served on the Supreme Court since 1994. He is considered a liberal on the Supreme Court and is one of only three liberal justices. Therefore, even after the replacement, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices on the U.S. Supreme Court remains 6:3, which has not changed the current situation.</p><p>5. US poll: 78% of Americans believe Biden has led the United States down the wrong path.</p><p>A poll conducted jointly by Morning Consult and Politico shows that 78% of Americans surveyed believe President Biden is leading the United States down the wrong path in policy. In a poll conducted in late February 2021 after Biden took office, 51% of respondents believed the United States was heading in the wrong direction. This figure has increased by 27 percentage points since then.</p><p>6. A coalition of U.S. environmental organizations has filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases.</p><p>On June 29 local time, a coalition of 10 environmental organizations filed a lawsuit on the evening of June 28 against the Biden administration's first sale of onshore oil and gas drilling leases. These environmental groups say the lease violates the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the Federal Land Policy and Management Act, and point out that additional drilling will lead to climate change.</p><p>7. The report states that the White House is analyzing what would happen to the economy if oil prices rose to $200.</p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, media reports indicated that the Biden administration has begun analyzing and simulating the economic damage that international oil prices would cause when they reach $200 a barrel. As the media commented, economic officials are not studying how to manage a naturally developing economy from recovery to a period of stable growth, but rather analyzing and simulating the worst-case scenario, such as what the impact of oil prices reaching $200 a barrel might mean for the economy.</p><p>8. The United States hopes that OPEC+ will follow up with a second step after the recent production increase.</p><p>In an interview, Amos Hochstein, senior energy security advisor at the U.S. State Department, said the U.S. welcomed OPEC+'s decision earlier this month to accelerate oil supply growth, calling it a \"significant shift in attitude.\" Hochstein hopes that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August is the \"first step\" of its supply policy, followed by a \"second step\". The United States is in talks with OPEC countries that still have spare capacity to assess whether it is necessary to further release strategic petroleum reserves after October.</p><p>9. The Doha talks between the US, Iran, and the EU concluded without achieving the expected results.</p><p>On the evening of June 29 local time, negotiations between Iran, the United States, and the European Union aimed at lifting US sanctions against Iran concluded in Doha, the capital of Qatar. \"We have not yet made the progress we had hoped for, but we will continue to work to get the Iran nuclear deal back on track,\" said Mora, Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service.</p><p>10. EU negotiators reach agreement on fund transfer regulations under anti-money laundering rules for encryption software.</p><p>The European Parliament announced that EU negotiators have reached an agreement on the regulation of fund transfers under anti-money laundering rules for cryptocurrency software.</p><p>11. The German cabinet is reviewing the draft 2023 fiscal budget, which plans to reinstate the \"debt brake\" principle.</p><p>According to sources within the German government on June 29 local time, the federal cabinet is reviewing the 2023 budget. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has broken the \"debt brake\" principle for three consecutive years. According to the draft budget submitted by Federal Finance Minister Lindner, the total amount of German government loans will decrease to around 17 billion euros in 2023. Therefore, Germany plans to resume compliance with the \"debt brake\" principle starting next year.</p><p>12. German inflation slowed in June as the government's temporary relief measures eased inflationary pressures.</p><p>German inflation unexpectedly slowed as temporary government relief measures eased pressure on households and businesses squeezed by record-high prices. Data released Wednesday showed that fuel tax cuts and discounts on public transportation costs helped consumer price increases fall to 8.2% in June from 8.7% in May. Analysts surveyed had previously estimated an 8.8% increase.</p><p>13. Finnish President: Finland and Sweden will sign an accession protocol no later than July 5th.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Finnish President Niinistö stated at a press conference in Madrid, Spain, that Finland and Sweden would sign an accession protocol no later than July 5.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Putin: Russia's special military operation against Ukraine may undergo tactical changes.</p><p>On June 29 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the objectives of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. Putin stated that Western calls for Ukraine to continue fighting confirm Russia's suspicions that Western countries do not want to protect Ukraine's interests, but their own. Putin also stated that if NATO deploys military forces in Finland and Sweden, Russia will have to take countermeasures.</p><p>2. The U.S. Department of Justice announced it has frozen $330 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs and banks.</p><p>The U.S. Department of Justice stated that the United States and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in assets belonging to Russian oligarchs, and relevant task forces have already frozen Russian...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The funds amount to approximately $300 billion. The U.S.-formed task force on Russian elites, agents, and oligarchs (REPO) has released new details regarding the seizure of high-value assets owned by Russian business giants. They are trying to seize the luxury goods of these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and continue to exert political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Justice Department believes the task force's work is \"not yet complete,\" and the task force will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.</p><p>The Russian government has responded to the continuous seizure and freezing of Russian assets by Western countries. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman warned on Wednesday that Russia has the right to retaliate, such as confiscating assets owned by Western countries in Russia.</p><p>3. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Syria.</p><p>Following Syria's announcement of recognition of the sovereignty and independence of the \"Luhansk People's Republic\" and the \"Donetsk People's Republic,\" Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the severance of diplomatic relations between the country and Syria that evening. In a regular video on the 29th, Zelensky stated that \"there will be no more relations between Ukraine and Syria,\" and added that Ukraine will also impose stronger sanctions on Syria.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister Johnson pledged an additional £1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.</p><p>On June 29 local time, at the NATO summit held in Madrid, the capital of Spain, British Prime Minister Johnson pledged to provide Ukraine with an additional £1 billion in military aid, bringing the UK's military aid to Ukraine during the current Russia-Ukraine conflict to £2.3 billion. This funding will be used to develop air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare equipment.</p><p>5. International rating agency Fitch: Some Central and Eastern European countries will be severely impacted if Russian natural gas supplies are cut off.</p><p>In a report, international rating agency Fitch Ratings said that a sudden interruption of Russia's natural gas supplies to the EU would have serious impacts on some Central and Eastern European countries, including high inflation and negative economic growth. The report states that if Russian gas supplies are cut off, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic will be most severely affected because these countries are highly dependent on Russian gas and lack alternative products. Poland, Lithuania, and Romania have been less affected because they have largely found alternative energy sources or achieved domestic production.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247028328\" target=\"_blank\">A food giant heavily invested in by Warren Buffett has a falling out with a supermarket chain: won't they allow price increases? Removed from shelves!</a></p><p>According to local British media reports, many of Kraft Heinz's products have been removed from supermarket shelves due to a breakdown in talks between American food producer Kraft Heinz and British supermarket chain Tesco over price increases. As is well known, Kraft Heinz is also a favorite stock of Warren Buffett.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Currently holding 26.61% of the company's shares, it is the company's largest shareholder. A Tesco spokesperson righteously stated that they regretted the change would lead to the removal of many products from shelves, but the supermarket would not pass on unreasonable price increases to their customers, and that consumers had \"many alternatives.\" With UK household budgets under increasing pressure, supermarkets have a greater responsibility than ever to ensure customers get the best value.</p><p>2. Tesla's weekly production in Texas reaches 5,000 vehicles</p><p>According to automotive news website Electrek, citing sources familiar with the matter, Tesla has managed to increase production at its Gigafactory in Texas, which can deliver up to 5,000 vehicles per week. This factory also produces a long-range version of the Model Y, which helps increase overall production. Tesla aims to increase weekly production to 10,000 vehicles by the end of the year.</p><p>3. Eli Lilly has been approved to conduct clinical trials of Donanemab for the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in China</p><p>Eli Lilly China announced that its application for clinical trials of Donanemab injection in China has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration. This is a global study to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of Donanemab in the treatment of early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, including mild cognitive impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease, and mild Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2247022295\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer signed a $3.2 billion vaccine order with the U.S. government: the price per dose is about $30.50</a></p><p>On Wednesday local time, Pfizer announced that it has signed a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. The U.S. government will pay Pfizer $3.2 billion to purchase 105 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, which is expected to be delivered as early as the end of this summer.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UNG":"美国天然气基金",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120000025","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股涨跌不一，道指涨0.27%，纳指跌0.03%，标普500跌0.07%，中概股普跌；②欧美三位央行行长齐声表态遏制通胀是现阶段的首要任务；③美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产；④乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系。海外市场1、美股周三收盘涨跌不一大型科技股涨跌各异美股周三收盘涨跌不一，美联储主席鲍威尔认为美国经济形势强劲，可以承受加息，但不能保证经济软着陆。截至收盘，纳指跌0.03%，报11177.89点；道指涨0.27%，报31029.31点；标普500指数跌0.07%，报3818.83点，连续两日处于熊市区间，收盘较今年1月3日的纪录高位跌超20%，势将截至本周四录得1970年以来最大的半年度跌幅。纳指收跌0.03%，报11177.89点，和标普均连跌三日，继续跌离上周五所创的6月9日以来高位。大型科技股涨跌各异，亚马逊上涨1.4%，苹果、微软涨超1%，特斯拉跌1.79%，Meta上涨2%。2、热门中概股收盘大多走低蔚来跌超2%热门中概股周三收盘大多走低，途牛、新东方涨超9%，携程涨2.5%，京东涨0.5%，阿里巴巴跌0.6%，哔哩哔哩跌4.3%，拼多多涨0.2%，贝壳收平。新能源汽车中，蔚来回应灰熊做空称报告存在“大量错误”，其美股跌2.4%。理想汽车涨2.7%，小鹏汽车跌1.7%。3、欧股主要指数收盘普跌德国DAX30指数跌1.7%欧股主要指数周三收盘普跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.7%，英国富时100指数跌0.14%，法国CAC40指数跌0.98%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌1%。4、美国WTI原油期货周三收跌1.77% 结束三连涨美国原油期货价格周三收跌，结束了此前连续三个交易日上涨的行情。全球经济疲软的前景令油价受到压力。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌1.98美元，跌幅为1.77%，报收于每桶109.78美元。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.2% 创两周新低纽约黄金期货价格周三收跌并创两周来的最低收盘价，录得连续第三个交易日录得跌幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌3.70美元，跌幅为0.2%，报收于每盎司1817.50美元，创6月14日以来的最低收盘价。6、欧洲天然气涨8% 创三个月新高欧洲天然气强劲反弹。ICE英国天然气期货收涨4.42%，报174.12便士/千卡，脱离周二跌3%所创的6月13日上上周一以来低位；TTF基准荷兰天然气期货收涨8.03%，报139.588欧元/兆瓦时，创3月8日以来新高，继上周三和周四创3月11日以来新高后又创三个多月新高。国际宏观1、美国一季度GDP再遭下调！年化季率降幅扩大至1.6%当地时间周三（6月29日），美国经济分析局公布的最新报告再次下调了美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速。具体数据显示，今年第一季度美国GDP年化季率下降了1.6%，这一降幅相比于经济学家预计的增长1.1%无疑是个巨大的打击。经济分析局的报告称，个人消费支出的疲软是本次下调的主要原因。值得一提的是，这已是一季度GDP的第二次下修。美国季度GDP会公布三次，4月份的初值报告中，GDP年化季率下降1.4%；在修正值报告中，这个降幅扩大至1.5%。报告还指出，创记录的贸易逆差拖累美国这一季的表现。2、鲍威尔称美国经济强劲 美联储可避免衰退美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行年度政策论坛上的小组讨论中表示，美国经济状况“强劲”，央行可以在维持稳固劳动力市场的同时将通胀率降至2%，虽然最近几个月这个任务变得更具挑战性。鲍威尔说，在不引发经济衰退的情况下提高利率是“我们的目标，我们也相信有实现这一目标的途径”。3、民主党讨论削减加税幅度 希望使拜登一揽子经济计划未来几周获通过知情人士透露，美国参议院民主党人正在寻求降低总统乔·拜登经济一揽子计划中的加税幅度，希望以此与参议员乔·曼钦达成一致，并使该计划未来几周获得通过。知情人士说，正在考虑的调整将削弱众议院去年通过的一些加税措施，可能意味着美国企业和富有家庭最终的加税幅度都小于拜登和民主党最初的设想。4、美最高法院大法官布雷耶将于30日退休 继任者为拜登提名的杰克逊当地时间周三，美国联邦最高法院宣布，自由派大法官斯蒂芬·布雷耶(Stephen Breyer)将于30日正式退休，接任他的将是美国历史上第一位非裔女性大法官、拜登提名的凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊(Ketanji Brown Jackson)。布雷耶现年83岁，自1994年以来一直在联邦最高法院任职，他被认为是最高法院的自由派，也是仅有的三名自由派大法官之一。因此，即使在换人之后，在美国最高法院中，保守派与自由派大法官的比例依旧为6:3，并没有改变当前的格局。5、美民调：78%的美国人认为拜登带领美国走错了道路美国晨间咨询公司（Morning Consult）与《政治报》（Politico）联合进行的一项民意调查显示，有78%参与调查的美国人认为总统拜登在政策上带领美国走错了道路。拜登上任后2021年2月下旬的民意调查中，有51%的受访者认为美国朝着错误的方向前进。这项数据自那以来增加了27个百分点。6、美环保组织联盟对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼当地时间6月29日，由10个环保组织组成的联盟于28日晚间对拜登政府首次出售陆上油气钻探租约提起诉讼。这些环保组织表示，该租约违反了美国《国家环境政策法案》和《联邦土地政策和管理法案》，并指出额外的钻井将导致气候变化。7、报道称白宫正分析油价涨到200美元经济会怎样美东时间周三，据媒体报道称，拜登政府已经开始分析和模拟当国际油价达到每桶200美元之时将会对经济造成什么样的破坏，正如媒体所评论的：经济官员们并非在研究管理一个处于自然发展中的经济，从复苏进入一个稳定的增长期，而是在分析和模拟最坏的情况，比如油价达到每桶200美元的冲击对经济可能意味着什么。8、美国希望OPEC+近期增产后将有第二步跟进美国国务院能源安全高级顾问Amos Hochstein接受采访时表示，美国欢迎OPEC+本月早些时候加快石油供应增速的决定，称这是“态度的重大转变”。Hochstein希望OPEC+ 7月和8月增产64.8万桶/天的计划是其供应政策的“第一步”，随后将有“第二步”跟进。美国正在与仍然有闲置产能的OPEC国家会谈，将评估是否有必要在10月份以后进一步释放战略石油储备。9、美、伊、欧盟多哈会谈结束 未获得预期成果当地时间6月29日晚，伊朗、美国、欧盟三方旨在美国解除对伊制裁的谈判在卡塔尔首都多哈结束。欧盟对外行动署副秘书长莫拉表示， “我们尚未取得此前希望的进展，但我们将继续努力使伊核协议重回正轨。”10、欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议欧洲议会表示，欧盟谈判代表就加密软件反洗钱规则中的资金转移监管达成协议。11、德国内阁正在审议2023年财政预算草案 计划重新遵守“债务刹车”原则据德国政府内部人士当地时间6月29日透露，联邦内阁正在审议2023年的财政预算。受新冠疫情影响，德国已经连续三年打破“债务刹车”原则。根据联邦财政部长林德纳提交的预算草案，2023年，德国政府的贷款总额将下降至170亿欧元左右。因此，德国计划从明年开始重新遵守“债务刹车”原则。12、德国6月份通胀有所放缓 政府的临时救济措施减轻了通胀压力德国通胀意外放缓，因为政府的临时救济措施减轻了受到物价创纪录飙升挤压的家庭和企业的压力。周三公布的数据显示，燃油税下调和公共交通成本折扣帮助6月份消费者价格涨幅从5月的8.7%降至8.2%。接受调查的分析师之前预估为上升8.8%。13、芬兰总统：芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书当地时间6月29日，芬兰总统尼尼斯托在西班牙马德里举行的新闻发布会上表示，芬兰和瑞典最迟将于7月5日签署“入约”议定书。俄乌局势1、普京：俄对乌特别军事行动在战术层面可能有变化当地时间6月29日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，俄罗斯对乌克兰的特别军事行动目标不会改变，而在战术层面可能有变化。普京表示，西方国家呼吁乌克兰继续战斗证实了俄罗斯方面的猜想，即西方国家想保护的并不是乌克兰的利益，而是他们自身的利益。普京还表示，如果北约在芬兰和瑞典部署军事力量，俄罗斯方面将不得不采取应对措施。2、美司法部称已冻结3300亿美元俄罗斯寡头和银行资产美国司法部称，美国及其盟友已冻结了超过300亿美元的俄罗斯寡头的资产，相关专案组已经冻结了俄罗斯中央银行资金约3000亿美元。美国组建的俄罗斯精英、代理人和寡头（REPO）专案组发布了关于扣押俄罗斯商业巨头拥有的高价值财产的新细节。他们试图扣押这些巨头的奢侈品，包括价值数亿美元的游艇，对俄罗斯总统普京持续施加政治压力。司法部认为专案组工作“尚未完成”，在未来几个月里，专案组将继续追踪俄罗斯资产。针对西方国家不断扣押和冻结俄罗斯资产的行为，俄罗斯官方作出了回应。俄罗斯外交部发言人周三警告称，俄罗斯有权采取报复措施，比如同样可以没收西方国家在俄罗斯拥有的资产。3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基宣布中断与叙利亚的外交关系在叙利亚宣布承认“卢甘斯克人民共和国”和“顿涅茨克人民共和国”的主权和独立后，乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天晚间宣布中断该国与叙利亚的外交关系。泽连斯基在29日的例行视频中表示，“乌克兰和叙利亚之间将不再有关系”，并称乌克兰对叙利亚的制裁力度也将更大。4、英国首相约翰逊承诺再向乌克兰提供10亿英镑军事援助当地时间6月29日，在西班牙首都马德里举办的北约峰会上，英国首相约翰逊承诺将再向乌克兰提供价值10亿英镑的军事援助，这使得英国在本次俄乌冲突期间为乌克兰提供的军事援助资金达到23亿英镑。这笔资金将用于研发防空系统、无人飞行器、电子战设备等。5、国际评级机构惠誉：若俄天然气断供 部分中东欧国家将受重创国际评级机构惠誉在一份报告中说，如果俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气供应突然中断，将对部分中东欧国家产生严重影响，包括高通胀、经济负增长等。报告称，如果俄罗斯天然气断供，斯洛伐克、匈牙利和捷克所受的影响将最为严重，因为这些国家高度依赖俄罗斯天然气、缺少可替代产品。而波兰、立陶宛和罗马尼亚受到的影响较小，因为上述国家基本找到了替代能源或实现国内生产。公司新闻1、巴菲特重仓的食品巨头与连锁超市闹掰：不让涨价？下架！据英国当地媒体报道，由于美国食品生产商卡夫·亨氏与英国连锁超市乐购在涨价问题上谈崩，该公司的许多产品已经从该超市下架。众所周知，卡夫·亨氏也是巴菲特的爱股，伯克希尔目前持有公司26.61%的股权，是公司第一大股东。乐购发言人义正言辞地表示，很遗憾这一变化会导致许多产品下架，但超市不会将不合理的价格上涨转嫁给我们的客户，同时消费者也有“很多的替代选择”。随着英国家庭预算面临越来越大的压力，超市比以往任何时候都更有责任确保用户获得最佳的价值。2、特斯拉得州周产量达5000辆据汽车新闻网站Electrek援引知情人士消息称，特斯拉已经设法提高了其位于得州的超级工厂的产量，每周可交付多达5000辆汽车。这个工厂还生产长续航版Model Y，有助于提高整体产量。特斯拉的目标是在年底前将周产量提高到1万辆。3、礼来获批在中国开展Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病的临床试验礼来中国宣布，其在中国申报的Donanemab注射液临床试验申请获得了国家药品监督管理局的批准。这是一项评估Donanemab治疗早期症状性阿尔茨海默病，包括阿尔茨海默病所致的轻度认知障碍以及轻度阿尔茨海默病的安全性和有效性的全球研究。4、辉瑞与美国政府签订32亿美元疫苗大单：每剂价格约为30.50美元当地时间周三，辉瑞公司表示，已同美国政府签订新的疫苗供应协议，美国政府将向辉瑞支付32亿美元，购买1.05亿剂新冠疫苗，预计最早将于今年夏末交付。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"QGmain":0.9,"DGAZ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UNG":0.9,"UGAZ":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046947533,"gmtCreate":1656293028522,"gmtModify":1676535800161,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046947533","repostId":"1165038670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165038670","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656285455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165038670?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 07:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This Week's Preview | Powell Joins Hands with Key US Inflation Data PCE","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165038670","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (June 27-July 1):</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>The preliminary month-on-month reading of US wholesale inventories in May, the final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the US core PCE price index in May, the number of US initial jobless claims, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be released successively.<b>Regarding financial reports:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, and others will release their financial reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Stock Connect will be suspended. The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and will last for two days; Tencent held a press conference on Monday to launch SPARK 2022. In addition,<b>This week, we will continue to focus on speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and San Francisco Fed President Daley.</b>This allows us to glimpse the Federal Reserve's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27th: China's May annualized profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, preliminary US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Monday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release the annualized profit rate of its industrial enterprises above designated size in May; The preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May and the EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 17 have been released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Analysts believe that companies are sticking to their capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to alleviate the burden of high inflation and a tight labor market. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider their current investment pace later this year, given rising interest rates and cooling expectations of economic activity. A preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May will be released on June 27.<b>The market currently expects 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>Regarding events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Games launch event held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L'Occitane</a>The financial report will be released on the same day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Graffiti Intelligence-W</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Regarding important meetings,</b>Amidst numerous crises, the G7 summit was held from June 26 to 28 at the Elmo Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The summit covered topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers point out that against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the G7 will face its most severe challenges and crises in years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28th: Preliminary US May wholesale inventory month-on-month rate, US April S&P/CS20 Major Cities Home Price Index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tuesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release preliminary month-on-month figures for U.S. wholesale inventories in May, as well as the S&P/CS20 major city home price index for April.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventory and represents resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers/importers and retailers, and their inventory situation can be used as one of the leading economic indicators. Rapid growth in wholesale inventory indicates that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic outlook.<b>The preliminary month-on-month rate of U.S. wholesale inventories for May will be released on June 28, and a significant increase is not expected given the drag on the economy caused by the pandemic.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>The two-day NATO summit has opened, and discussions are expected to focus on the Ukraine issue, which investors should also pay attention to. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain, from June 29 to 30. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss increasing troop presence in the eastern EU region bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is expected to discuss Türkiye's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Likin Technology</a>Release financial reports.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, June 29th: US API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24th, final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, speeches by Fed Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wednesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter.</p><p>The three-year compound annual growth rate of real GDP in the United States declined from 1.9% to 1.56% in the first quarter of 2022. Imports significantly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound annual growth rate as high as 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, higher than the level for the whole of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all declined slightly, the compound annual growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound annual growth rate of private investment saw the largest decline.<b>The final annualized quarterly rate of real U.S. GDP for the first quarter will be released on June 29, and is expected to remain relatively low.</b>In addition,<b>Changes in U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 24 are also worth investors' attention.</b></p><p>U.S. API crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 5.607 million barrels in the week ending June 17, marking the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week ending April 8, 2022. The expected decrease was 1.433 million barrels, compared to an increase of 736,000 barrels in the previous week. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>Data for the latest cycle will be released on June 29, and the increase is expected to continue.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens delivered speeches at the ECB forum.</p><p>In 2022, FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>Daly, a 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President, delivered a speech.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsports</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Financial reports will be released.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">Weili Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrun Cloud</a>The lottery results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30th: China's official manufacturing PMI, US May core PCE price index, US initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, suspension of A-share Stock Connect trading</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that this data will rebound further as China gradually recovers from the pandemic.</b>The United States will release data on the May core PCE price index annualized rate and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Among them,<b>The US core PCE price index for May is of paramount importance.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Investors should pay close attention to the speech by 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, northbound trading was closed due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1st: Hong Kong stock market closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-Stock Connect trading suspended, China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US June Markit Manufacturing PMI final reading, US June ISM Manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday is<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and A-share Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>Regarding economic data,<b>Investors should pay attention to China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the final reading of the US June Markit Manufacturing PMI, and the US June ISM Manufacturing PMI.</b></p><p>In addition to the key data and major events mentioned above, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global pandemic, which is expected to affect the future trend of financial markets.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Week's Preview | Powell Joins Hands with Key US Inflation Data PCE</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Week's Preview | Powell Joins Hands with Key US Inflation Data PCE\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-27 07:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (June 27-July 1):</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>The preliminary month-on-month reading of US wholesale inventories in May, the final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, China's official manufacturing PMI, the US core PCE price index in May, the number of US initial jobless claims, and China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June will be released successively.<b>Regarding financial reports:</b>Ctrip, Nike, Micron Technology, and others will release their financial reports.<b>In terms of events:</b>Friday is the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-share Stock Connect will be suspended. The NATO summit opens on Tuesday and will last for two days; Tencent held a press conference on Monday to launch SPARK 2022. In addition,<b>This week, we will continue to focus on speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and San Francisco Fed President Daley.</b>This allows us to glimpse the Federal Reserve's attitude towards the current economic situation and monetary policy path.<b>Keywords for Monday, June 27th: China's May annualized profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, preliminary US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1765349fac5dcc348a9902910c4cfd\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a8bab3b5a4c455ea1531c5ce282017\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Monday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release the annualized profit rate of its industrial enterprises above designated size in May; The preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May and the EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 17 have been released.</p><p>U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected in April. Analysts believe that companies are sticking to their capital expenditure plans as they seek to increase productivity to alleviate the burden of high inflation and a tight labor market. However, it is unclear whether companies will reconsider their current investment pace later this year, given rising interest rates and cooling expectations of economic activity. A preliminary month-on-month reading of U.S. durable goods orders for May will be released on June 27.<b>The market currently expects 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%.</b>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration updated the delayed data.</p><p><b>Regarding events, investors can pay attention to the SPARK 2022 Tencent Games launch event held by Tencent.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00973\">L'Occitane</a>The financial report will be released on the same day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02391\">Graffiti Intelligence-W</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Regarding important meetings,</b>Amidst numerous crises, the G7 summit was held from June 26 to 28 at the Elmo Palace near Munich, the capital of Bavaria, Germany. The summit covered topics such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, energy crisis, food security, and economic recovery. Observers point out that against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the G7 will face its most severe challenges and crises in years at this meeting.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, June 28th: Preliminary US May wholesale inventory month-on-month rate, US April S&P/CS20 Major Cities Home Price Index, NATO summit opening</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7557ec0a9888dab809b78bb843517aa4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tuesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release preliminary month-on-month figures for U.S. wholesale inventories in May, as well as the S&P/CS20 major city home price index for April.</p><p>U.S. wholesale inventory data reflects changes in the total value of items in wholesalers' inventory and represents resources that are temporarily idle to meet future needs. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers/importers and retailers, and their inventory situation can be used as one of the leading economic indicators. Rapid growth in wholesale inventory indicates that wholesalers are optimistic about the economic outlook.<b>The preliminary month-on-month rate of U.S. wholesale inventories for May will be released on June 28, and a significant increase is not expected given the drag on the economy caused by the pandemic.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>The two-day NATO summit has opened, and discussions are expected to focus on the Ukraine issue, which investors should also pay attention to. The NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain, from June 29 to 30. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once called it a \"historic\" opportunity to strengthen NATO against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to foreign media reports, the NATO summit is expected to discuss increasing troop presence in the eastern EU region bordering Russia and its ally Belarus. In addition, the summit is expected to discuss Türkiye's opposition to Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00558\">Likin Technology</a>Release financial reports.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>IPO subscriptions have ended.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, June 29th: US API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending June 24th, final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the first quarter, speeches by Fed Chairman Powell/San Francisco Fed President Daly/Cleveland Fed President Mester.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d009e1fef305f66099330a861e47aa83\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfa486b4dba1768a04e004e49a1c89f\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wednesday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>The United States will release the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter.</p><p>The three-year compound annual growth rate of real GDP in the United States declined from 1.9% to 1.56% in the first quarter of 2022. Imports significantly dragged down economic growth in the first quarter, with a three-year compound annual growth rate as high as 3.96%; However, the growth rate of personal consumption continued to rise, recording 2.38%, higher than the level for the whole of 2021; The growth rates of other sub-items all declined slightly, the compound annual growth rate of exports continued to be negative, and the compound annual growth rate of private investment saw the largest decline.<b>The final annualized quarterly rate of real U.S. GDP for the first quarter will be released on June 29, and is expected to remain relatively low.</b>In addition,<b>Changes in U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 24 are also worth investors' attention.</b></p><p>U.S. API crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 5.607 million barrels in the week ending June 17, marking the third consecutive week of increase and the largest increase since the week ending April 8, 2022. The expected decrease was 1.433 million barrels, compared to an increase of 736,000 barrels in the previous week. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time since March.<b>Data for the latest cycle will be released on June 29, and the increase is expected to continue.</b><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens delivered speeches at the ECB forum.</p><p>In 2022, FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester participated in a panel discussion on inflation expectations;</p><p>Daly, a 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President, delivered a speech.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06110\">Topsports</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Financial reports will be released.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02372\">Weili Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02167\">Tianrun Cloud</a>The lottery results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, June 30th: China's official manufacturing PMI, US May core PCE price index, US initial jobless claims, St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech, suspension of A-share Stock Connect trading</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23264ecc85938e74492769ba14d465f\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday,<b>Regarding economic data,</b>China will release its official manufacturing PMI for June.</p><p>China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the last day of June.<b>It is expected that this data will rebound further as China gradually recovers from the pandemic.</b>The United States will release data on the May core PCE price index annualized rate and the number of initial jobless claims for the week. Among them,<b>The US core PCE price index for May is of paramount importance.</b></p><p><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Investors should pay close attention to the speech by 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.</p><p><b>In addition, northbound trading was closed due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The financial report will be released after the market closes.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, July 1st: Hong Kong stock market closed, Hong Kong Stock Connect/A-Stock Connect trading suspended, China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US June Markit Manufacturing PMI final reading, US June ISM Manufacturing PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bf4e1d47d9e2493aedb333c5a9a184\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Friday is<b>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and A-share Stock Connect will be suspended.</b></p><p>Regarding economic data,<b>Investors should pay attention to China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the final reading of the US June Markit Manufacturing PMI, and the US June ISM Manufacturing PMI.</b></p><p>In addition to the key data and major events mentioned above, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the global pandemic, which is expected to affect the future trend of financial markets.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165038670","content_text":"本周（6.27-7.1）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、中国6月财新制造业PMI将陆续公布。财报方面：携程网、耐克、美光科技等将发布财报。事件方面：周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日、港股通/A股通暂停交易；周二北约峰会开幕，为期两日；腾讯公司周一举行将SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。此外，本周继续关注美联储主席鲍威尔、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德、旧金山联储主席戴利等多位美联储官员讲话，从中窥探美联储对当前经济形势和货币政策路径的态度。6月27日 周一关键词：中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率、美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、 美国当周EIA原油库存变动周一，经济数据方面，中国将公布中国5月规模以上工业企业利润年率；美国5月耐用品订单月率初值、美国截至6月17日当周EIA原油库存变动出炉。美国耐用品订单4月增幅低于预期。机构分析后认为，企业正在坚持资本支出计划，因其寻求提高生产率，以减轻高通胀和劳动力市场紧张的负担。不过，在利率上升和经济活动预期降温的情况下，企业今年晚些时候是否会重新考虑当下的投资步伐，目前还不太清楚。6月27日将公布美国5月耐用品订单月率初值，目前市场预期为0.4%，低于0.5%的前值。此外，美国能源信息署更新推迟公布的数据。事件方面，投资者可关注腾讯公司举行的SPARK 2022腾讯游戏发布会。财报方面，欧舒丹将于当日发布财报，携程网、耐克将于盘后发布财报。新股方面，涂鸦智能-W新股申购结束。重要会议方面，重重危机之下，七国集团峰会即于6月26日至28日在德国巴伐利亚州首府慕尼黑附近的埃尔茂宫召开。本次峰会的议题涉及俄乌冲突、气候变化、能源危机、粮食安全、经济复苏等话题。观察人士指出，在俄乌冲突持续升级的背景下，七国集团在此次会议中将面临多年来最严峻的挑战和危机。6月28日 周二关键词：美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数、北约峰会开幕周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值、美国4月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数等。美国批发库存数据反映的是批发商库存中物品总价值的变动，是为了满足未来需要而暂时闲置的资源；批发商作为制造商/进口商及零售商之间的中间人，其库存情况可以作为经济先行指标之一，批发库存增长快说明批发商对经济前景看好。6月28日将公布美国5月批发库存月率初值，在疫情拖累经济的情况下料不会大涨。事件方面，北约峰会开幕，为期两日，预计讨论将集中在乌克兰问题上，投资者也需引起重视。北约峰会将在6月29日至30日于西班牙马德里举行。北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格曾将其称之为在俄乌冲突背景下，加强北约的“历史性”机会。据外媒报道，此次北约峰会预计将讨论向欧盟东部与俄罗斯及其盟友白俄罗斯接壤的地区增兵。此外，峰会也有望就土耳其在瑞典和芬兰加入北约上的反对立场问题加以协商。财报方面，力劲科技发布财报。新股方面，智云健康新股申购结束。6月29日 周三关键字：美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动、美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值、美联储主席鲍威尔/旧金山联储主席戴利/克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话周三，经济数据方面，美国将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值。美国2022年一季度实际GDP三年复合增速从1.9%下滑至1.56%。其中，进口大幅拖累一季度经济增长，三年复合增速高达3.96%；但个人消费增速仍持续上行，录得2.38%，高于2021年全年水平；其余分项增速均小幅回落，出口复合增速持续处于负增长，私人投资复合增速下行幅度最大。6月29日将公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值，料维持相对低位。此外，美国截至6月24日当周API原油库存变动也值得投资者关注。美国至6月17日当周API原油库存意外大增560.7万桶，为连续第三周上升并且为2022年4月8日当周以来最大增幅，预期为减少143.3万桶，前值为增加73.6万桶。汽油库存也自3月以来首次增加。6月29日将公布最新周期的数据，料继续录得增加。事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长拉加德、英国央行行长贝利以及国际清算银行总裁卡斯腾斯在欧洲央行论坛上发表讲话。2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特参加一个有关通胀预期的小组讨论；2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话。财报方面，滔搏、3B家居将公布财报。新股方面，伟立控股、天润云将公布中签结果。6月30日 周四关键词：中国官方制造业PMI、美国5月核心PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德讲话、A股通暂停交易周四，经济数据方面，中国将发布6月官方制造业PMI。6月的最后一天将公布中国官方制造业和非制造业PMI数据，预计随着国内逐渐从疫情中恢复过来，本次数据有望进一步回升。美国将发布5月核心PCE物价指数年率、当周初请失业金人数等数据。其中，美国5月核心PCE物价指数是重中之重。事件方面，投资者需重点关注2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德的讲话。此外，因香港特别行政区成立纪念日，北向交易关闭。财报方面，美光科技将于盘后发布财报。7月1日 周五关键词：港股休市、港股通/A股通暂停交易、中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI周五为香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日，港股通/A股通暂停交易。经济数据方面，投资者需关注中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月Markit制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI。除了以上重点数据和大事件，投资者还需关注全球疫情发展，料影响未来金融市场走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048430431,"gmtCreate":1656237434923,"gmtModify":1676535790701,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577532473997426","authorIdStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048430431","repostId":"1122634027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122634027","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1656231072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122634027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 16:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the US stock market bear market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122634027","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Following the FOMC rate hike of 75 basis points in June, recession concerns have intensified significantly. In the current context of a fast-rate hike, it is not surprising that the US economy subsequently fell into recession. So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks? What experiences can we learn from?</p><p><b>I. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>US growth and profitability are already on a slowdown, and there is a considerable possibility of a subsequent recession. A sudden rate hike itself would have a significant impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>。<b>1) For decline time</b>We estimate that tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, but not so quickly.<b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis.</p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is low and does not arrive soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy will be eased.<b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, it may correspond to the latter half of the third quarter and the early fourth quarter.</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations are supported by one standard deviation below.</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We classify the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP. Compared to deep recessions (corrections exceeding 3%) and mild recessions, the former are usually accompanied by balance sheet shocks (such as in 2008) and therefore last longer (average 13 months). The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden in timing; Real estate and finance are more sensitive to the degree of recession and have less technological growth; The former has a greater valuation drag and no support level, while mild recession valuations can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market declines from their highs is comparable to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is 15-20% away from the support level of 13 times. Based on the 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Apart from the government sector, the macro leverage levels of financial and non-financial corporations and households in the United States are at a relatively healthy level, far lower than during the 2008 financial crisis. This is one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low. Some weaknesses, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low- and middle-income groups, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the US Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the US Market</b></p><p>Following the Fed's \"temporary\" 75 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Aggressive and Forward-Looking Path or the Current 'Optimal Solution'\"),<b>The market trading logic quickly shifted from high inflation and rapid tightening to weak growth, and recession concerns intensified significantly.</b>As a result, the US Treasury yields fell from a high of 3.5% in 2010 to around 3%. Meanwhile, the rise in the gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-stock Nasdaq leading the gains may all be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we believe that the market's reaction to recession concerns may be excessive. However, it is an indisputable fact that US growth is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will fall into recession in the context of the current fast rate hike.</b>So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks and Federal Reserve policy? What lessons can be learned from history? We will analyze it in detail in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. How high is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>Due to the combined effects of a high base, high costs, high inventory, high interest rates, and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate profits are already on a slowdown and will continue to decline.</b>(\"US Stock Earnings Enter Downward Trend\"), which is also the general consensus in the current market.<b>If this path continues, there is a considerable possibility of recession.</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that actively guiding a recession was not the Fed's subjective will (indicating that a recession is possible and that a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the rapid rate hike will itself have a significant impact on demand.</b>(The sharp rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage rates has had an immediate negative impact on U.S. housing demand, with mortgage applications and home sales declining rapidly.) At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (as former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers vividly described in a recent interview about the delayed change in faucet temperature).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>Because falling into a recession too quickly would put the Federal Reserve's policy in a dilemma, and the market would also face dual pressures on valuations and earnings; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on profitability.</p><p><b>1) For the duration of the recession, we try to estimate it by using the tightness or looseness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment).</b>Its advantage is that it has a leading position compared to economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the Federal Reserve's intentions. This is because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions inevitably bring greater growth pressure, while also meaning that the Federal Reserve wants to control inflation by suppressing demand (historically, the Federal Reserve usually stops rate hike when financial conditions turn positive, with the exception of the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread, as well as the actual financing costs of enterprises (investment-grade bond yields) and the return on investment (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the rate hike pace implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively from July to November).<b>Tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth by the end of this year and early next year.</b>(This corresponds to the inversion of the 3m10s curve in November and the historical experience threshold of financing costs exceeding the return on investment of 250 basis points early next year) (\"How to understand the mechanism and impact of tightening financial conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's leading economic indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative, which, judging from the relationship with the recession, also indicates that there may still be some distance to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the US non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis. In other words, even if a recession occurs, it is unlikely to be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Therefore, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy can be eased.</b>。 During a growth slowdown, if the Federal Reserve's policy can be reduced or even reversed after completing its \"task\" (such as inflation reaching a turning point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeding the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter a trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"modified\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, bond assets and stock market growth styles corresponding to inflation outperform relatively.</p><p><b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, this point in time likely corresponds to after the third quarter.</b>This is mainly due to the fact that US inflation will once again reach a high year-on-year base starting in September, and the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 exhibited this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was when Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred six months later in July 2019, and the improvement in growth did not occur until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike during Greenspan's era in 1994, similar to the current one, did not lead to a market crash, and to some extent, it also benefited from the timely \"withdrawal\" of policies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations have support below one standard deviation.</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and durations of economic impact, and naturally, their impact on the market will also differ.</b>According to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~10.1 months. The longest was the Great Depression that began in 1929 (44 months), and the shortest was the 2020 pandemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP from its peak. Empirically, a decline of more than 3% is considered a deep recession, and less than 3% is considered a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with a median duration of 13.2 months; There were eight mild recessions (1948–1949, 1953–1954, 1960–1961, 1969–1970, 1980, 1981–1982, 1990–1991, 2001) with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, larger recessions are often accompanied by balance sheet crises, making it slower and more difficult to impact larger recoveries (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while smaller recessions have a relatively limited impact on balance sheets and recover faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above classification, we found that there are also clear differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 was 44%, far greater than the pullback/retracement of 19% during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) From a timing perspective</b>The start of the market decline is closer to the recession during a deep recession (1.5 months ahead of the peak), while the decline begins earlier during a mild recession (2.4 months ahead of the recession at the market peak). However, the timing of the end was exactly the opposite: the market bottomed out six months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottomed out 5.1 months earlier than a mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>The daily consumer and defensive sectors generally experienced smaller declines during recessions, which is consistent with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the declines in sectors such as real estate, financial services, media, utilities, and insurance were more pronounced during the deep recession, meaning that these sectors are more sensitive to the extent of the recession, while growth-oriented technology sectors are less sensitive.<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and Earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings was roughly the same (median 2.4% for deep recessions vs. 4.3% for mild recessions), while the difference in valuation drag was more significant (median 35% for deep recessions vs. 18% for mild recessions).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has been supported by a standard deviation below its mean for the past 30 years (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as during the rate hike cycle in 1994, the low point of the tech bubble in 2002, the market turmoil in 2018, and the pandemic in 2020). In contrast, deep recessions can \"break down\". For example, during the deep recession of 2008, valuations fell to as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from its peak is close to the average of a mild recession (the S&P 500 has a maximum pullback/retracement of 24%, and the Nasdaq has a maximum pullback/retracement of 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 20.5% away from the support level of a mild recession. Based on a 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for the government sector, the macro leverage levels of U.S. financial and non-financial corporations and households are at relatively healthy levels, far below those of the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore...<b>This is also one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents following the subprime mortgage crisis, and the three rounds of fiscal stimulus totaling $6 trillion after the pandemic that protected the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current leverage ratio of U.S. residents is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), while the leverage ratio of corporations is also close to the pre-pandemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). This is the main reason why Powell previously said that the U.S. economy can withstand tightening pressures. As the Federal Reserve accelerates tightening, overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weaknesses that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Overall balance sheet is healthy; Middle-income groups are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. consumer spending has shown considerable resilience. While goods consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption has maintained a high growth rate. However, the still abundant excess savings ($2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have diverged significantly from consumer confidence, which has been declining to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was 50.2 in May, exceeding the level of the subprime mortgage crisis and reaching the level of the 1970s. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the divergence between people at different income levels.<b>a) High-income individuals have high asset growth and low leverage.</b>。 As of the first quarter, the top 20% of residents' cash assets (savings and money market funds) increased by 41.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, while their liabilities/assets ratio was the lowest among all groups (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income groups</b>The income percentile is between 20% and 80%, and the liability/asset ratio of residents is close to 20%, but it is lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) Low-income groups have decreased cash assets but lower debt levels.</b>。 The main problem for people in the bottom 20% of their income bracket is their low assets (cash assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter), making them more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, the relatively positive aspect is that their debt is also low (15%), so they do not face a significant risk of default.</p><p>Looking at different types of household debt, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans, and consumer credit have increased much more than mortgages since the financial crisis (as of the first quarter, mortgages/GDP were 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP were 18.6%, but the increase was faster). Therefore, they may be a weak link that deserves more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Corporate side: Overall leverage has improved, and solvency has increased; Focus on high-yield bonds and small business exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate sector has not undergone a significant deleveraging process like the residential sector, with the leverage ratio of non-financial corporations at 78% in the first quarter and the net leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in the S&P 500 at 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, it has still improved compared to the period since the pandemic, and solvency has also recovered (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Trend\").</p><p>In our article, \"Looking at the Weaknesses Under Tightening from the Turmoil in European and Japanese Bond Markets,\" we pointed out that US credit spreads have risen rapidly recently (high-yield and investment-grade were 5.3 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points respectively), reaching new highs since 2015. Corporate bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have recently underperformed the Treasury Bond significantly, accompanied by significant capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure warrants attention. However, on a relatively positive note, the maturity of U.S. high-yield bonds was only $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure was not significant.<b>In addition, it is worth noting that small businesses in the United States are facing high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observed corporate short-term liquidity pressures and default risks using current assets/short-term liabilities, and found that among US-listed companies, ~17% were less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportions. However, its market capitalization accounts for only 0.6%, indicating that risk exposure is mainly concentrated in small businesses, and in sectors such as utilities, finance, and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell Emphasizes Anti-Inflation Stance; Recession concerns are rising, manifested in falling interest rates, a sharp drop in commodities, growth leading the way, and lower rate hike expectations.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: Stocks > Bonds > Commodities; Recession concerns are rising, interest rates are falling, commodities are plummeting, and growth is leading the way.</b></p><p><b>Fears of a market recession have risen over the past week.</b>This is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling to 3.1%, a general decline in commodities, and a significant rebound in growth stocks represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq. The decline in the preliminary reading of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June further reflects this situation, with market rate hike expectations falling and the rate hike in September falling from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that rate hike could lead to a recession and that achieving a soft landing would be challenging, but the Fed will unconditionally fight high inflation. To ease oil price pressures, Biden said this week that he hopes to suspend federal gasoline taxes for the next three months. Brent crude oil prices briefly approached $107 per barrel during trading, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113 per barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, in US dollar terms, stocks > bonds > commodities; US and Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stocks, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, automobiles and auto parts, household goods, and biotechnology led the gains in the S&P 500, while only energy declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS narrows, credit spreads rise</b></p><p>Over the past week, the FRA-OIS interest rate spread narrowed to 20 basis points, the 90-day commercial bill spread widened in the financial sector, and narrowed in the non-financial sector. Credit spreads all widened, and the three-month cross-swaps between the euro, yen, and pound sterling and the dollar all narrowed. The US repurchase market is increasingly willing to lend funds. In addition, the use of reverse repos by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's books declined slightly but remained at a high level of $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Oversold positions in the US and Europe have eased; US stocks turned net short</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index has generally declined, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) for US stocks has fallen. Oversold stock markets in Europe, the United States, and emerging markets have eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in US stocks have shifted to net short positions, speculative net long positions in the US dollar have continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures have increased, net short positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds have increased, and net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds have decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Capital flows: Bond outflows accelerate, US stocks turn to outflows.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned out, and money market funds have turned in. By market, the Japanese market turned into an inflow, Europe accelerated its outflow, and emerging markets and the United States turned into an outflow. South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China saw significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Preliminary PMI readings for manufacturing and services in Europe and the US have fallen significantly.</b></p><p><b>US: The preliminary reading of the June manufacturing PMI fell significantly, indicating weakening demand.</b>The Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 in June, lower than the previous reading of 57 and the expected reading of 56, hitting a new low since July 2020. Against the backdrop of high inflation and declining consumer confidence, weakening demand led to a sharp drop in new orders and output in the June PMI into contraction territory, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the Markit Services PMI for June was 51.6, lower than expected (53.5) and the previous reading (53.4), marking a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: Preliminary readings of the manufacturing and services PMIs fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary reading of the Markit Manufacturing PMI for June fell to 52, below expectations and the previous readings (53.8 and 54.6), and the lowest level since August 2020. New orders and output have declined significantly and have fallen back into contraction territory, indicating weakening economic growth and demand in the Eurozone amid high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the services PMI fell to 52.8, below expectations and previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>It remains above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio of 16.3 is higher than a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~15.1 times), and US stock valuations are already below one standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the US stock market bear market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the US stock market bear market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-26 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Following the FOMC rate hike of 75 basis points in June, recession concerns have intensified significantly. In the current context of a fast-rate hike, it is not surprising that the US economy subsequently fell into recession. So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks? What experiences can we learn from?</p><p><b>I. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>US growth and profitability are already on a slowdown, and there is a considerable possibility of a subsequent recession. A sudden rate hike itself would have a significant impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>。<b>1) For decline time</b>We estimate that tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, but not so quickly.<b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis.</p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is low and does not arrive soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy will be eased.<b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, it may correspond to the latter half of the third quarter and the early fourth quarter.</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations are supported by one standard deviation below.</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We classify the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP. Compared to deep recessions (corrections exceeding 3%) and mild recessions, the former are usually accompanied by balance sheet shocks (such as in 2008) and therefore last longer (average 13 months). The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden in timing; Real estate and finance are more sensitive to the degree of recession and have less technological growth; The former has a greater valuation drag and no support level, while mild recession valuations can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market declines from their highs is comparable to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is 15-20% away from the support level of 13 times. Based on the 3.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Apart from the government sector, the macro leverage levels of financial and non-financial corporations and households in the United States are at a relatively healthy level, far lower than during the 2008 financial crisis. This is one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low. Some weaknesses, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low- and middle-income groups, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the US Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the US Market</b></p><p>Following the Fed's \"temporary\" 75 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Aggressive and Forward-Looking Path or the Current 'Optimal Solution'\"),<b>The market trading logic quickly shifted from high inflation and rapid tightening to weak growth, and recession concerns intensified significantly.</b>As a result, the US Treasury yields fell from a high of 3.5% in 2010 to around 3%. Meanwhile, the rise in the gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-stock Nasdaq leading the gains may all be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we believe that the market's reaction to recession concerns may be excessive. However, it is an indisputable fact that US growth is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will fall into recession in the context of the current fast rate hike.</b>So, what implications does recession risk have for US stocks and Federal Reserve policy? What lessons can be learned from history? We will analyze it in detail in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. How high is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is an established fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of the recession are more important.</b></p><p>Due to the combined effects of a high base, high costs, high inventory, high interest rates, and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate profits are already on a slowdown and will continue to decline.</b>(\"US Stock Earnings Enter Downward Trend\"), which is also the general consensus in the current market.<b>If this path continues, there is a considerable possibility of recession.</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that actively guiding a recession was not the Fed's subjective will (indicating that a recession is possible and that a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the rapid rate hike will itself have a significant impact on demand.</b>(The sharp rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage rates has had an immediate negative impact on U.S. housing demand, with mortgage applications and home sales declining rapidly.) At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (as former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers vividly described in a recent interview about the delayed change in faucet temperature).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even recession, the timing and depth of a recession are even more important.</b>Because falling into a recession too quickly would put the Federal Reserve's policy in a dilemma, and the market would also face dual pressures on valuations and earnings; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on profitability.</p><p><b>1) For the duration of the recession, we try to estimate it by using the tightness or looseness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment).</b>Its advantage is that it has a leading position compared to economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the Federal Reserve's intentions. This is because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions inevitably bring greater growth pressure, while also meaning that the Federal Reserve wants to control inflation by suppressing demand (historically, the Federal Reserve usually stops rate hike when financial conditions turn positive, with the exception of the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread, as well as the actual financing costs of enterprises (investment-grade bond yields) and the return on investment (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the rate hike pace implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively from July to November).<b>Tightening financial conditions may put pressure on growth by the end of this year and early next year.</b>(This corresponds to the inversion of the 3m10s curve in November and the historical experience threshold of financing costs exceeding the return on investment of 250 basis points early next year) (\"How to understand the mechanism and impact of tightening financial conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's leading economic indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative, which, judging from the relationship with the recession, also indicates that there may still be some distance to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For the depth of the recession</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the US non-governmental sector indicates that it at least does not face a significant risk of a debt crisis. In other words, even if a recession occurs, it is unlikely to be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. What is the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when policy will be eased is a more meaningful question for the market.</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Therefore, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when policy can be eased.</b>。 During a growth slowdown, if the Federal Reserve's policy can be reduced or even reversed after completing its \"task\" (such as inflation reaching a turning point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeding the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter a trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"modified\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, bond assets and stock market growth styles corresponding to inflation outperform relatively.</p><p><b>Based on our calculations of inflation and tightening paths, this point in time likely corresponds to after the third quarter.</b>This is mainly due to the fact that US inflation will once again reach a high year-on-year base starting in September, and the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 exhibited this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was when Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred six months later in July 2019, and the improvement in growth did not occur until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike during Greenspan's era in 1994, similar to the current one, did not lead to a market crash, and to some extent, it also benefited from the timely \"withdrawal\" of policies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III. Market impacts under different degrees of recession: Mild recessions have an average decline of ~20%, and valuations have support below one standard deviation.</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and durations of economic impact, and naturally, their impact on the market will also differ.</b>According to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~10.1 months. The longest was the Great Depression that began in 1929 (44 months), and the shortest was the 2020 pandemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the magnitude of the decline in GDP from its peak. Empirically, a decline of more than 3% is considered a deep recession, and less than 3% is considered a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with a median duration of 13.2 months; There were eight mild recessions (1948–1949, 1953–1954, 1960–1961, 1969–1970, 1980, 1981–1982, 1990–1991, 2001) with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, larger recessions are often accompanied by balance sheet crises, making it slower and more difficult to impact larger recoveries (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while smaller recessions have a relatively limited impact on balance sheets and recover faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above classification, we found that there are also clear differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 was 44%, far greater than the pullback/retracement of 19% during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) From a timing perspective</b>The start of the market decline is closer to the recession during a deep recession (1.5 months ahead of the peak), while the decline begins earlier during a mild recession (2.4 months ahead of the recession at the market peak). However, the timing of the end was exactly the opposite: the market bottomed out six months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottomed out 5.1 months earlier than a mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>The daily consumer and defensive sectors generally experienced smaller declines during recessions, which is consistent with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the declines in sectors such as real estate, financial services, media, utilities, and insurance were more pronounced during the deep recession, meaning that these sectors are more sensitive to the extent of the recession, while growth-oriented technology sectors are less sensitive.<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and Earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings was roughly the same (median 2.4% for deep recessions vs. 4.3% for mild recessions), while the difference in valuation drag was more significant (median 35% for deep recessions vs. 18% for mild recessions).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has been supported by a standard deviation below its mean for the past 30 years (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as during the rate hike cycle in 1994, the low point of the tech bubble in 2002, the market turmoil in 2018, and the pandemic in 2020). In contrast, deep recessions can \"break down\". For example, during the deep recession of 2008, valuations fell to as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from its peak is close to the average of a mild recession (the S&P 500 has a maximum pullback/retracement of 24%, and the Nasdaq has a maximum pullback/retracement of 34%). The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 20.5% away from the support level of a mild recession. Based on a 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that a reasonable level is around 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Are there any debt risks? Weak links in the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for the government sector, the macro leverage levels of U.S. financial and non-financial corporations and households are at relatively healthy levels, far below those of the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore...<b>This is also one of the main bases for our judgment that the probability of a deep recession similar to a debt crisis is currently low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents following the subprime mortgage crisis, and the three rounds of fiscal stimulus totaling $6 trillion after the pandemic that protected the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current leverage ratio of U.S. residents is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), while the leverage ratio of corporations is also close to the pre-pandemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). This is the main reason why Powell previously said that the U.S. economy can withstand tightening pressures. As the Federal Reserve accelerates tightening, overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weaknesses that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Overall balance sheet is healthy; Middle-income groups are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. consumer spending has shown considerable resilience. While goods consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption has maintained a high growth rate. However, the still abundant excess savings ($2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have diverged significantly from consumer confidence, which has been declining to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was 50.2 in May, exceeding the level of the subprime mortgage crisis and reaching the level of the 1970s. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the divergence between people at different income levels.<b>a) High-income individuals have high asset growth and low leverage.</b>。 As of the first quarter, the top 20% of residents' cash assets (savings and money market funds) increased by 41.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, while their liabilities/assets ratio was the lowest among all groups (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income groups</b>The income percentile is between 20% and 80%, and the liability/asset ratio of residents is close to 20%, but it is lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) Low-income groups have decreased cash assets but lower debt levels.</b>。 The main problem for people in the bottom 20% of their income bracket is their low assets (cash assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter), making them more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, the relatively positive aspect is that their debt is also low (15%), so they do not face a significant risk of default.</p><p>Looking at different types of household debt, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans, and consumer credit have increased much more than mortgages since the financial crisis (as of the first quarter, mortgages/GDP were 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP were 18.6%, but the increase was faster). Therefore, they may be a weak link that deserves more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Corporate side: Overall leverage has improved, and solvency has increased; Focus on high-yield bonds and small business exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate sector has not undergone a significant deleveraging process like the residential sector, with the leverage ratio of non-financial corporations at 78% in the first quarter and the net leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in the S&P 500 at 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, it has still improved compared to the period since the pandemic, and solvency has also recovered (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Trend\").</p><p>In our article, \"Looking at the Weaknesses Under Tightening from the Turmoil in European and Japanese Bond Markets,\" we pointed out that US credit spreads have risen rapidly recently (high-yield and investment-grade were 5.3 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points respectively), reaching new highs since 2015. Corporate bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have recently underperformed the Treasury Bond significantly, accompanied by significant capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure warrants attention. However, on a relatively positive note, the maturity of U.S. high-yield bonds was only $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure was not significant.<b>In addition, it is worth noting that small businesses in the United States are facing high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observed corporate short-term liquidity pressures and default risks using current assets/short-term liabilities, and found that among US-listed companies, ~17% were less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportions. However, its market capitalization accounts for only 0.6%, indicating that risk exposure is mainly concentrated in small businesses, and in sectors such as utilities, finance, and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell Emphasizes Anti-Inflation Stance; Recession concerns are rising, manifested in falling interest rates, a sharp drop in commodities, growth leading the way, and lower rate hike expectations.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: Stocks > Bonds > Commodities; Recession concerns are rising, interest rates are falling, commodities are plummeting, and growth is leading the way.</b></p><p><b>Fears of a market recession have risen over the past week.</b>This is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling to 3.1%, a general decline in commodities, and a significant rebound in growth stocks represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq. The decline in the preliminary reading of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June further reflects this situation, with market rate hike expectations falling and the rate hike in September falling from 75 basis points to 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that rate hike could lead to a recession and that achieving a soft landing would be challenging, but the Fed will unconditionally fight high inflation. To ease oil price pressures, Biden said this week that he hopes to suspend federal gasoline taxes for the next three months. Brent crude oil prices briefly approached $107 per barrel during trading, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113 per barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, in US dollar terms, stocks > bonds > commodities; US and Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stocks, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, automobiles and auto parts, household goods, and biotechnology led the gains in the S&P 500, while only energy declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS narrows, credit spreads rise</b></p><p>Over the past week, the FRA-OIS interest rate spread narrowed to 20 basis points, the 90-day commercial bill spread widened in the financial sector, and narrowed in the non-financial sector. Credit spreads all widened, and the three-month cross-swaps between the euro, yen, and pound sterling and the dollar all narrowed. The US repurchase market is increasingly willing to lend funds. In addition, the use of reverse repos by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's books declined slightly but remained at a high level of $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Oversold positions in the US and Europe have eased; US stocks turned net short</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index has generally declined, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) for US stocks has fallen. Oversold stock markets in Europe, the United States, and emerging markets have eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in US stocks have shifted to net short positions, speculative net long positions in the US dollar have continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures have increased, net short positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds have increased, and net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds have decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Capital flows: Bond outflows accelerate, US stocks turn to outflows.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned out, and money market funds have turned in. By market, the Japanese market turned into an inflow, Europe accelerated its outflow, and emerging markets and the United States turned into an outflow. South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China saw significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Preliminary PMI readings for manufacturing and services in Europe and the US have fallen significantly.</b></p><p><b>US: The preliminary reading of the June manufacturing PMI fell significantly, indicating weakening demand.</b>The Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 in June, lower than the previous reading of 57 and the expected reading of 56, hitting a new low since July 2020. Against the backdrop of high inflation and declining consumer confidence, weakening demand led to a sharp drop in new orders and output in the June PMI into contraction territory, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the Markit Services PMI for June was 51.6, lower than expected (53.5) and the previous reading (53.4), marking a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: Preliminary readings of the manufacturing and services PMIs fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary reading of the Markit Manufacturing PMI for June fell to 52, below expectations and the previous readings (53.8 and 54.6), and the lowest level since August 2020. New orders and output have declined significantly and have fallen back into contraction territory, indicating weakening economic growth and demand in the Eurozone amid high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Supply and delivery improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressures. The preliminary reading of the services PMI fell to 52.8, below expectations and previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>It remains above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio of 16.3 is higher than a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~15.1 times), and US stock valuations are already below one standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122634027","content_text":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要美国增长和盈利已处于放缓通道，后续衰退也有相当可能性，骤然加息本身就会对需求带来较大冲击。给定放缓甚至衰退可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要。1）对于衰退时间，我们测算金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现，并没那么快。2）对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题若深度衰退概率较小且不会很快到来，对市场更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退，而是政策何时能退坡。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，可能对应在三季度后四季度初。此时，市场可以进入债券和成长的交易逻辑。2019年初和1994年都有相似之处。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在下方一倍标准差有支撑上世纪20年代以来美国经历15次衰退。我们以GDP回落幅度划分衰退程度。对比深度衰退（回调幅度超过3%）和轻度衰退，前者通常伴随资产负债表冲击（如2008年），故持续时间更长（平均13个月）；市场跌幅明显更大，时点上更突然；地产金融等对衰退程度更敏感、科技成长较小；前者估值拖累更大且没有支撑位，轻度衰退估值能在均值下方一倍标准差找到支撑。本轮市场从高点跌幅已与轻度衰退相当（标普500回撤24%，纳斯达克34%）；当前16.3倍动态估值距13倍支撑位还有15~20%，我们基于3.5%10年美债测算合理水平为14倍附近。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。一些薄弱环节，如高收益债、中低收入人群消费贷款等值得关注。焦点讨论：美国经济的衰退风险 vs. 美国市场的熊市压力6月FOMC会议美联储“临时”加息75bp后（《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》），市场交易逻辑迅速从高通胀和快紧缩向弱增长切换，衰退担忧明显升温。受此影响，10年美债利率从3.5%的高点一度回落3%附近。与此同时，上周金铜比走高、油价大跌、成长风格纳斯达克领涨可能也都与这一预期有关。短期来看，我们认为市场对衰退担忧的反应不排除有过度之嫌。但是，当前美国增长逐步放缓也是不争的事实，在当前快加息的背景下后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股和美联储政策有何启示？历史上有什么经验值得借鉴？我们将在本文中具体分析。一、衰退风险有多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要在高基数、高成本、高库存、高利率和弱需求的共同作用下，美国增长和企业盈利已经处于放缓通道且仍将继续回落（《美股盈利进入下行通道》），这也是当前市场的普遍共识。沿着这个路径继续下去，衰退也有相当可能性。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后和上周国会听证会上都表示主动引导衰退并不是美联储主观意愿（表示经济衰退可能性存在，且软着陆非常具有挑战性），但快加息带来的金融条件快速收紧本身就会对需求带来较大冲击（30年和10年房贷利率的骤升已经给美国房地产需求带来了立竿见影的负面影响，房贷申请数和房屋销售都快速回落），同时货币骤然紧缩的余波也势必会逐步显现出来（正如美国前财长萨默斯在近期接受专访中有关水龙头水温延时变化的形象比喻）。给定增长放缓甚至衰退的可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要，因为过快陷入衰退将使得美联储政策面临两难境地，市场也将承受估值和盈利的双重压力；而深度衰退则将对盈利造成更加剧烈且持久的冲击。1) 对于衰退时间，我们尝试通过金融条件的松紧（融资成本超过投资回报率的程度）来估算，其好处是相比经济指标本身具有领先性且能够“观察”美联储的意图，因为过高的利率和过紧的金融条件必然带来更大增长压力的同时、也意味着美联储想要通过抑制需求来实现控制通胀的目的（回顾历史，当金融条件转正后，美联储通常便停止加息，仅上世纪七十年代末例外）。我们采用3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本（投资级债券收益率）与投资回报率（实际GDP增速）这两个维度分别测算，以当前美联储点阵图和CME利率期货隐含的加息步伐计（7~11月分别加息75bp、50bp和25bp），金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现（对应3m10s在11月倒挂、以及融资成本明年初超出投资回报率250bp的历史经验阈值）（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。此外，Conference Board经济领先指标虽然年初以来持续下滑但同比增速尚未转负，从与衰退的关系看也表明可能还有一段距离。2) 对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表状况表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险，换言之，即便出现衰退，可能大概率也不会是类似于2008年金融危机似的深度衰退。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题如果深度衰退概率较小且可能不会很快到来，那么对市场而言更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退、而是政策何时能够退坡。在增长放缓的过程中，如果美联储政策完成“任务”之后（如通胀出现拐点且联邦基金利率有效超过中性利率）可以退坡甚至转向的话，那么市场则可以进入增长放缓且政策宽松的交易逻辑，根据我们基于实际利率和通胀预期的“改进版”美林时钟，通胀对应债券资产和股市成长风格相对跑赢。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，这一时点可能对应在三季度之后，主要是考虑到9月开始美国通胀将再度迎来同比高基数，同时当前加息路径可能在9月之后逐步降速。实际上，2019年初的市场企稳就呈现出这一特点，市场见底的契机是2019年初鲍威尔传递鸽派信号，但真正降息则是发生在半年后的2019年7月、增长好转更是要到三季度。1994年格林斯潘时期与当前类似的快速加息并没有导致市场以“崩盘”收场，在一定程度上也同样得益于政策的及时“收手”。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在一倍标准差下方有支撑不同衰退对经济冲击程度和时间不同，自然对市场的影响也就不同。参照美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的定义，上世纪20年代末以来美国共经历15次衰退，持续时间中值~10.1个月，其中最长的是1929年开启的大萧条（44个月），最短的是2020年疫情（仅2个月）。我们以GDP从峰值回落幅度来定义衰退程度，经验值看回调幅度超过3%为深度衰退、小于3%为轻度衰退。基于这一定义，上世纪20年代末以来，深度衰退共计7次（1929~1933年、1937~1938年、1945年、1957~1958年、1973~1975年、2007~2009年、2020年），持续时间中值13.2个月；轻度衰退8次（1948~1949年、1953~1954年、1960~1961年、1969~1970年、1980年、1981~1982年、1990年~1991年、2001年），平均持续时间10个月。一般而言，较大程度的衰退通常会伴随资产负债表的危机，因此冲击更大修复也更慢更难（典型如2008年金融危机），而小幅的衰退对资产负债表的冲击相对有限、修复也更快。基于上述划分，我们发现市场和板块表现也存在“泾渭分明”的差异。1）整体表现：深度衰退期间，标普500最大回撤中值44%，远大于轻度衰退期的19%的回撤。2）时点上看：市场下跌起点在深度衰退期间与衰退期更为贴近（高点领先1.5个月），而轻度衰退时下跌开始的更早（市场高点领先衰退2.4个月）；但结束时间恰好相反，市场底部早于深度衰退结束6个月，市场见底早于轻度衰退5.1个月。3）行业表现：日常消费及防御板块衰退期间跌幅普遍都较小、符合防御性板块特征；但房地产、金融服务、媒体、公用事业、保险等板块跌幅在深度衰退更剧烈，意味着此类板块对衰退程度更加敏感，相比之下成长风格的科技板块敏感度较低。4）估值与盈利：受限于估值数据，我们观察上世纪50年代以来不同衰退期间，盈利的拖累程度大体相当（深度衰退中值为2.4% vs. 轻度衰退中值为4.3%），估值拖累差异则更为显著（深度衰退中值35% vs. 轻度衰退18%）。5）估值绝对水平：标普500指数在过去三十年间基本都在均值下方一倍标准差的维持能够得到支撑（对应12个月动态估值13倍左右，如1994年加息周期、2002年科技泡沫低点、2018年市场动荡和2020年疫情）；相比之下深度衰退则会“破位”，如2008年深度衰退除期间，估值最低跌至9倍。对比来看，本轮市场从高点的跌幅已经接近轻度衰退的平均值（标普500最大回撤24%，纳斯达克最大回撤34%），而当前16.3倍的动态估值距离轻度衰退的支撑位还有20.5%的下行空间，我们基于3.5%的10年美债利率与当前增长环境测算合理水平为14倍左右。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节整体来看，除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民部门宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，因此这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。得益于次贷危机后美国居民持续去杠杆，以及疫情后美国三轮共计6万亿美元财政刺激保护了居民和企业资产负债表，美国当前居民杠杆率处于较低水平（75.1%vs. 2019年四季度74.2%），企业杠杆率也接近疫情前水平（77.7% vs. 2019年四季度75.1%），这也是鲍威尔此前称美国经济能够抵御紧缩压力的主要原因。在美联储加速紧缩的过程中，整体债务风险可控，但中间也存在一些薄弱环节需要关注。具体来看：1) 居民：总体资产负债表健康；中等收入人群敞口更大。2022年以来美国居民消费一直呈现相当韧性，在商品消费已经开始放缓的背景下，服务消费仍保持较高增速。但当前仍充沛的超额储蓄（2.3万亿美元）、有韧性的居民消费，与已经持续下探到低点的消费者信心出现了较大背离，如密歇根大学消费者情绪指数5月50.2，超过次贷危机时期，达到了上世纪70年代水平；世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）消费者信心指数4月为106相对更高，这背后可能体现出不同收入水平人群的分化。a）高收入人群资产增幅高，杠杆低。截至一季度，收入前20%居民现金类资产（储蓄和货币基金）较2019年四季度增长 41.4%，负债/资产则是所有人群中最低（3.8%）。b）中等收入人群高杠杆，收入分位在20%~80%居民负债/资产接近20%，但低于次贷危机水平。c）低收入人群现金资产下降但负债不高。收入分位在后20%的人群主要问题是资产不高（一季度现金类资产环比下降1.2%），更容易受高通胀的挤压，但相对积极的是其负债也不高（15%），因此不面临较大的违约风险。从居民端不同类别负债看，学生贷款、汽车贷款和消费信贷的规模和占比从金融危机以来提升幅度都要远高于房贷（截至一季度房贷/GDP为50.2%，消费贷/GDP为18.6%，但提升更快），因此可能是更值得关注的薄弱环节。2) 企业端：整体杠杆改善，偿付能力提升；关注高收益债和小企业敞口。虽然美国企业端并未像居民端经历大幅去杠杆过程，一季度非金融企业杠杆率为78%，标普500非金融企业净杠杆率74%，均高于次贷危机时期，但相对疫情以来仍有改善，且偿付能力也有所修复（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。我们在《从欧日债市动荡看紧缩下的薄弱环节》中指出，美国信用利差近期快速上升（高收益和投资级分别为5.3ppt和2.0ppt），为2015年以来新高。信用债尤其是高收益债近期大幅跑输国债，并伴随明显的资金流出，因此潜在的风险敞口值得关注。但相对积极的是，美国高收益债到期规模截至2023年末只有800亿美元，偿付压力并不算大。此外，美国小企业受高成本和金融条件收紧也值得关注。我们以流动资产/短期负债观测企业短期流动性压力以及违约风险，发现在美国上市公司中~17%小于1，以能源、原材料、消费服务占比最高；不过市值占比只有0.6%，这表明风险敞口更多以小企业为主，且集中在公用事业、金融和通讯等板块。市场动态：鲍威尔强调抗通胀立场；衰退担忧升温，表现为利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先，加息预期回落►资产表现：资产表现：股>债>大宗；衰退担忧升温，利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先过去一周市场衰退担忧升温，表现体现为10年美债利率回落至3.1%、大宗普遍下跌，FAAMNG、纳斯达克为代表的成长风格反弹明显。美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值回落进一步反映这一情形，市场加息预期回落，9月加息幅度由75bp回落至50bp。美联储主席鲍威尔听证会明确表示加息或可能导致衰退，实现软着陆具有挑战性，但美联储将无条件抗击高通胀。为降低油价压力，拜登本周表示希望在未来三个月内暂停联邦汽油税，布伦特原油价格盘中一度逼近107美元/桶，但供需因素支撑油价本周收于113美元/桶。整体看，美元计价下，股>债>大宗；美国中概股、FAAMNG、俄罗斯股市、纳斯达克领涨；小麦、天然气、铜、大豆等领跌。板块方面，标普500中汽车与零部件、家庭用品、生物科技等领涨，仅能源下跌。►流动性：FRA-OIS收窄，信用利差走高过去一周，FRA-OIS利差收窄至20bp，90天金融行业商票利差走扩，非金融行业收窄。信用利差均走扩，欧元、日元、英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换均收窄。美国回购市场资金出借意愿增加。此外，美国主要金融机构在美联储账上逆回购使用量略回落但仍维持2.2万亿美元的高位。►情绪仓位：美欧超卖缓解；美股转为净空头过去一周，VIX指数整体回落，美股看空/看多比例（10天平均）回落。欧美及新兴股市超卖程度有所趋缓。仓位方面，美股投机性仓位转为净空头，美元投机性净多头仓位持续增加，铜期货投机性净空头仓位增加，10年美债净空头仓位增加，2年美债净空头仓位减少。►资金流向：债券加速流出，美股转为流出过去一周，债券加速流出，股票转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，日本市场转为流入，欧洲加速流出，新兴市场、美国转为流出；韩国、越南录得流入，印度、中国流出明显。►基本面与政策：欧美制造业与服务业PMI初值回落明显美国：6月制造业PMI初值回落明显，需求趋弱。6月Markit制造业PMI录得52.4，低于前值57和预期值56，创2020年7月以来新低。在通胀高企、消费者信心回落的背景下，需求趋弱导致6月PMI新订单、产出大幅回落至收缩区间，创2020年6月以来新低。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。6月Markit 服务业PMI初值为51.6，低于预期（53.5）和前值（53.4），为5个月以来新低。欧元区：6月制造业和服务业PMI初值回落明显。6月Markit制造业PMI初值降至52，低于预期和前值（53.8和54.6），为2020年8月以来的最低水平。新订单、产出等分项回落明显，且已回落至收缩区间，在高通胀及地缘政治不确定性下欧元区经济增长和需求趋弱。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。服务业PMI初值降至52.8，低于预期和前值（54和54.8）。►市场估值：仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平。当前标普500的16.3倍动态P/E高于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~15.1倍），美股估值已低于向下一倍标准差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}