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2022-06-22

$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$Power tonight! Beware shorties, it will be same as what u see yesterday! 😂😂😂

2021-07-14

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$I think i am oneof the highest holding price here.Hmmm, since i’ve lost more than 35%, i’d rager hold than to cut lost. At most lose $5,000 if the price went down to $8. **This is a war between retail investors Vs HF, will fight this war by holding the shares!**

2022-03-16

Bear market now, control "buying the dip" for now, wait and see what happen tmr after FEB announced interest rate. Hope this bear market doesn't last that long, FML$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2021-08-20

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Should i sell now andwait till it drop back to $12?

2021-06-29

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$support a little

2022-05-17

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$I feel tomorrow will be a bloody day for this stock, i'm thinking whether to sell or not. Any advise?!

2021-07-02

$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$Hold or take profit?

2021-08-21

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Should have sold @ 14.xx and buy back again at lower price.

2021-09-11

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$OMG Are you going down next Monday?!?! ???????

2021-09-09

$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$Hold till next week, i feel tomorrow will sell on news ?

2021-08-24

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Sell?????

2022-11-20

Like please 🍇

Alphabet Vs. Meta Platforms: Which Stock Is The Better Investment?

2021-08-25

$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$Sell put option is a right choice! ???

2021-09-08

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$$47, up or down?

2021-09-06

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Share for coins, like please

2023-01-21

Hello! Happy New Year!

Reminder: Market Holidays During Chinese Lunar New Year

2021-06-18

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$If tonight can close above $66, may see a small gamma squeeze

2022-12-04

Like 🍀

NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out

2022-11-26

$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$ Monday

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPXW 20231205 4540.0 PUT\">$SPXW 20231205 4540.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPXW 20231205 4540.0 PUT\">$SPXW 20231205 4540.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$SPXW 20231205 4540.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d534154d4cfd5a078b3448ee10988b2","width":"1044","height":"1682"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252574072373384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":234323454939360,"gmtCreate":1698251506503,"gmtModify":1698251510126,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JD\">$JD.com(JD)$&nbsp;</a>Dead","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JD\">$JD.com(JD)$&nbsp;</a>Dead","text":"$JD.com(JD)$ Dead","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25edd314b6d7018db0c2b4bb99ca36f9","width":"1044","height":"1683"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234323454939360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941262438,"gmtCreate":1680286219625,"gmtModify":1680286223056,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941262438","repostId":"9941262949","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9941262949,"gmtCreate":1680285563981,"gmtModify":1680285820361,"author":{"id":"10000000000010725","authorId":"10000000000010725","name":"SpicyTrade","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8625e39315faf7fe99c5d50b5dab2fe6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  BABA ( $BABA ) stock analysis\n \n","listText":"BABA ( $BABA ) stock analysis","text":"BABA ( $BABA ) stock analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941262949","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"d3212d3058f94ebba1f98f0bae8f34d2","tweetId":"9941262949","title":"BABA ( $BABA ) stock analysis","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/168028555794265c7e19eaed1cf4e5a600793092bc197.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4644718aab061a4d15a99b7f26cff9","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/168028555794265c7e19eaed1cf4e5a600793092bc197.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941301793,"gmtCreate":1679943770213,"gmtModify":1679943773619,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941301793","repostId":"2322422523","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2322422523","pubTimestamp":1679931725,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2322422523?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-27 23:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Delivery Data Are Coming Soon. This Number Could Lift the Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2322422523","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The next hot-button topic for bulls and bears on Tesla stock is deliveries for the first quarter. Th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The next hot-button topic for bulls and bears on Tesla stock is deliveries for the first quarter. The numbers are due this weekend.</p><p>It will be the first time Tesla will report delivery numbers since it slashed vehicle prices around the globe early this year. CEO Elon Musk said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call that “demand far exceeds production” and “we currently are seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production.”</p><p>The improvement in demand is a big reason that Tesla stock was up about 55% year to date, coming into Monday trading.</p><p>Tesla typically reports its quarterly delivery figures on the second day of the month. That will be Sunday if the pattern holds.</p><p>Wall Street is expecting the data to show about 420,000 units were delivered in the first quarter of 2023, up from about 405,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022.</p><p>That implies growth of about 4% from the prior quarter and about 35% compared with the roughly 310,000 vehicles delivered in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Barclays analyst Dan Levy believes Tesla will beat the consensus call of 420,000 vehicles and delivery roughly 425,000 cars. That would be enough to give the stock a boost, according to Levy.</p><p>He rates the shares at Buy and has a target of $275 for the price. Citi analyst Itay Michaeli has a Hold rating on shares, but raised his price target to $196 from $146 on Monday.</p><p>Recent data points, such as Chinese auto registration data, have been encouraging, wrote Michaeli. Registrations for Tesla vehicles in China, one proxy for demand in that country, have grown for four consecutive weeks.</p><p>Tesla also exports cars to Europe from its Chinese plant, so predicting total sales from Tesla’s Chinese plant in Shanghai is any given quarter is difficult.</p><p>Tesla’s Shanghai plant produced about 140,000 units in January and February combined. About 61,000 were delivered domestically with the rest exported. Tesla also makes vehicles in Fremont, Calif.; Austin, Texas; and Germany.</p><p>Not surprisingly, Tesla stock typically reacts better when deliveries exceed forecasts than when they fall short. Shares dropped about 12% on the first trading day of 2023 after fourth-quarter deliveries missed expectations. Wall Street was looking for about 420,000 units, roughly 15,000 more than the actual total.</p><p>Shares quickly recovered, however, and were at about $144 before Tesla reported its fourth-quarter numbers on Jan. 25. Tesla stock closed out 2022 at $123.18 a share and dropped to $108.10 after the delivery disappointment.</p><p>Tesla stock was up 2.1% in early trading at about $194.39. The S&amp;P 500  and Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.</p></body></html>","source":"mwatch_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Delivery Data Are Coming Soon. This Number Could Lift the Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Delivery Data Are Coming Soon. This Number Could Lift the Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-27 23:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/teslas-stock-deliveries-what-to-expect-9a9c5148?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The next hot-button topic for bulls and bears on Tesla stock is deliveries for the first quarter. The numbers are due this weekend.It will be the first time Tesla will report delivery numbers since it...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/teslas-stock-deliveries-what-to-expect-9a9c5148?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/teslas-stock-deliveries-what-to-expect-9a9c5148?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2322422523","content_text":"The next hot-button topic for bulls and bears on Tesla stock is deliveries for the first quarter. The numbers are due this weekend.It will be the first time Tesla will report delivery numbers since it slashed vehicle prices around the globe early this year. CEO Elon Musk said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call that “demand far exceeds production” and “we currently are seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production.”The improvement in demand is a big reason that Tesla stock was up about 55% year to date, coming into Monday trading.Tesla typically reports its quarterly delivery figures on the second day of the month. That will be Sunday if the pattern holds.Wall Street is expecting the data to show about 420,000 units were delivered in the first quarter of 2023, up from about 405,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022.That implies growth of about 4% from the prior quarter and about 35% compared with the roughly 310,000 vehicles delivered in the first quarter of 2022.Barclays analyst Dan Levy believes Tesla will beat the consensus call of 420,000 vehicles and delivery roughly 425,000 cars. That would be enough to give the stock a boost, according to Levy.He rates the shares at Buy and has a target of $275 for the price. Citi analyst Itay Michaeli has a Hold rating on shares, but raised his price target to $196 from $146 on Monday.Recent data points, such as Chinese auto registration data, have been encouraging, wrote Michaeli. Registrations for Tesla vehicles in China, one proxy for demand in that country, have grown for four consecutive weeks.Tesla also exports cars to Europe from its Chinese plant, so predicting total sales from Tesla’s Chinese plant in Shanghai is any given quarter is difficult.Tesla’s Shanghai plant produced about 140,000 units in January and February combined. About 61,000 were delivered domestically with the rest exported. Tesla also makes vehicles in Fremont, Calif.; Austin, Texas; and Germany.Not surprisingly, Tesla stock typically reacts better when deliveries exceed forecasts than when they fall short. Shares dropped about 12% on the first trading day of 2023 after fourth-quarter deliveries missed expectations. Wall Street was looking for about 420,000 units, roughly 15,000 more than the actual total.Shares quickly recovered, however, and were at about $144 before Tesla reported its fourth-quarter numbers on Jan. 25. Tesla stock closed out 2022 at $123.18 a share and dropped to $108.10 after the delivery disappointment.Tesla stock was up 2.1% in early trading at about $194.39. The S&P 500  and Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940930353,"gmtCreate":1677635251273,"gmtModify":1677635254136,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>not sure, but this has been down, time to go up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>not sure, but this has been down, time to go up","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ not sure, but this has been down, time to go up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940930353","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954530932,"gmtCreate":1676446892327,"gmtModify":1676446900862,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This writer Should have&nbsp;position in NIO, and he is losing $now, so he keep repeating buy now buy now! Wait, i'll buy later when the price ia right, maybe tonight or tomorrow night!","listText":"This writer Should have&nbsp;position in NIO, and he is losing $now, so he keep repeating buy now buy now! Wait, i'll buy later when the price ia right, maybe tonight or tomorrow night!","text":"This writer Should have position in NIO, and he is losing $now, so he keep repeating buy now buy now! Wait, i'll buy later when the price ia right, maybe tonight or tomorrow night!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954530932","repostId":"1171408398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171408398","pubTimestamp":1676441321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171408398?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-15 14:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO, Resilient During Price Wars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171408398","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryWe remain bullish on NIO.We expect NIO to boost its topline growth, driven by China’s economi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>We remain bullish on NIO.</li><li>We expect NIO to boost its topline growth, driven by China’s economic recovery and the company’s expansion into Europe.</li><li>While we believe Tesla’s price cuts may pressure NIO deliveries in the near term, we don’t expect the price wars to harm NIO in the mid to long term.</li><li>We continue to believe NIO is well-positioned to outperform in FY2023 and recommend investors buy the stock as it dips below October levels.</li></ul><p>We continue to be buy-rated on NIO (NYSE:NIO). We believe NIO is well-positioned to beat its deliveries last year and expect the company to boost its top-line growth, driven by China&#39;s re-opening and the company&#39;s expansion overseas. We previously wrote on NIO in mid-December, arguing that the company provides a favorable rebound investment opportunity as China lets its economy off the leash. Since our note in December, the stock is down around 13%. We believe the company took a hit as Tesla (TSLA) surprised the EV space, slashing prices by up to 20%, and after the slowdown in production due to the Lunar New Year Holiday. We&#39;re too not concerned about the price wars impacting NIO in the mid-to-long run as we expect NIO to be well-positioned to experience demand tailwinds in the Chinese market and as it expands to Europe with its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) program.</p><h3>Fundamental business is still intact and expanding</h3><p>NIO stock is down 56% over the past year, but we believe the company&#39;s fundamental business is still intact and growing. We expect NIO to grow in FY2023, driven by its expansion into European markets and into the energy business.</p><p>We&#39;re constructive on NIO&#39;s efforts to differentiate itself from other EV markers by expanding its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) program through Power-Swap-Stations (PSS). NIO&#39;s stations allow customers to pay a monthly subscription fee on top of the traditional plug-and-charge model. The PSS is an attractive option for customers as it will enable them to cut the wait time on charging their vehicle by simply exchanging their empty battery for a charged one. Currently, the company operates over 1,300 stations in China and 10 in Europe. NIO&#39;s goal is to increase the PSS to 1,700 in China and 120 in Europe by the end of the year. We expect the company is on the right track to expand overseas and broaden its PSS presence. We believe NIO is well-positioned to beat its deliveries last year after China&#39;s reopening, reversing the nation&#39;s Zero COVID policies that had caused an economic slowdown in the past. We recommend investors buy the pullback.</p><h3>Price war triggered</h3><p>We believe Tesla&#39;s price cuts of up to 13.5% in China triggered a price war in the EV space and took a toll on EV manufacturers in the first month of the year, but we don&#39;t expect this to pressure NIO in the mid-to-long term. NIO, XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto (LI) recorded sales declines this January; we believe the weakness is the result of disrupted production due to the weeklong Lunar New Year Holiday and Tesla&#39;s price cuts. NIO reported 8,506 vehicle deliveries to mainland customers, recording a 46% decline from December and an 11.9% drop Y/Y. While the drop is not insignificant, NIO is relatively resilient compared to XPeng, where deliveries dropped nearly 54% from a month earlier. Still, in comparison, Tesla&#39;s sales in China surged 76% in the second week of January compared to the first week. XPeng followed Tesla&#39;s footsteps and lowered prices by up to 13% on some of its models. We don&#39;t expect NIO to reduce prices, but we&#39;re not too worried about Tesla&#39;s price cuts pressuring NIO in the mid-to-long term.</p><p>We believe NIO and other EVs in China have the advantage of having a more diverse product mix than Tesla. Currently, Tesla only has its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles offered in China, while NIO and BYD provide a broad range of alternatives; NIO has six vehicle options, while BYD has 60. We believe Tesla&#39;s aging product line is a real issue, even if the price cuts in China boost demand in the near term. We believe Tesla is in trouble if other EV start-ups in China, including NIO, choose to slash prices significantly and simultaneously provide a wider variety of choices. Tesla&#39;s market share in China is also shrinking, from 15% in 2020 to 10% in 2022, according to China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data. While Tesla&#39;s price cuts have heated demand for the company&#39;s vehicles, we don&#39;t believe this means it&#39;s game over for other EV start-ups, especially not NIO.</p><p>Another factor in the price war situation is that NIO targets a high-end EV market north of $40,000. NIO&#39;s vehicles exist in the price range of around $49,000 to $69,000. We believe NIO&#39;s customers should not be too impacted by Tesla&#39;s price cuts as we expect NIO retains a unique position in the EV market as the Chinese Tesla, with a foot in EV manufacturing and in the energy business.</p><h3>Valuation and word on Wall Street</h3><p>We believe NIO is relatively cheap, trading at 2.2x EV/C2023 Sales versus the peer group at 2.3x. We believe NIO&#39;s valuation is attractive at current levels and recommend investors interested in entering the EV market buy into NIO.</p><p>Wall Street shares our bullish sentiment on the stock. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 26 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. The stock is currently trading at $10 per share. The sell-side median price target is $17, while the mean is $18, with a potential upside of 65-77%.</p><p>The following tables illustrate NIO&#39;s sell-side ratings and price targets.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e8bc1c4a022f33ef1f110c82ad0248\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>What to do with the stock</h3><p>We believe NIO is well-positioned for a long-term price rally as it rebounds from the eye of the harsh macro environment. We expect NIO to experience demand tailwinds as it enters and expands its place in the European EV market. We&#39;re also constructive on the company&#39;s expansion into the energy business as it broadens its power-swapping stations. We expect the stock price to be volatile in the near term due to the slowdown of production during the Lunar New Year Holiday and Tesla&#39;s price cuts. Yet, we believe the pullback over the past year provides a favorable entry point into NIO&#39;s long-term growth.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO, Resilient During Price Wars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO, Resilient During Price Wars\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-15 14:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578215-nio-resilient-during-price-wars><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe remain bullish on NIO.We expect NIO to boost its topline growth, driven by China’s economic recovery and the company’s expansion into Europe.While we believe Tesla’s price cuts may pressure ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578215-nio-resilient-during-price-wars\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578215-nio-resilient-during-price-wars","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1171408398","content_text":"SummaryWe remain bullish on NIO.We expect NIO to boost its topline growth, driven by China’s economic recovery and the company’s expansion into Europe.While we believe Tesla’s price cuts may pressure NIO deliveries in the near term, we don’t expect the price wars to harm NIO in the mid to long term.We continue to believe NIO is well-positioned to outperform in FY2023 and recommend investors buy the stock as it dips below October levels.We continue to be buy-rated on NIO (NYSE:NIO). We believe NIO is well-positioned to beat its deliveries last year and expect the company to boost its top-line growth, driven by China's re-opening and the company's expansion overseas. We previously wrote on NIO in mid-December, arguing that the company provides a favorable rebound investment opportunity as China lets its economy off the leash. Since our note in December, the stock is down around 13%. We believe the company took a hit as Tesla (TSLA) surprised the EV space, slashing prices by up to 20%, and after the slowdown in production due to the Lunar New Year Holiday. We're too not concerned about the price wars impacting NIO in the mid-to-long run as we expect NIO to be well-positioned to experience demand tailwinds in the Chinese market and as it expands to Europe with its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) program.Fundamental business is still intact and expandingNIO stock is down 56% over the past year, but we believe the company's fundamental business is still intact and growing. We expect NIO to grow in FY2023, driven by its expansion into European markets and into the energy business.We're constructive on NIO's efforts to differentiate itself from other EV markers by expanding its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) program through Power-Swap-Stations (PSS). NIO's stations allow customers to pay a monthly subscription fee on top of the traditional plug-and-charge model. The PSS is an attractive option for customers as it will enable them to cut the wait time on charging their vehicle by simply exchanging their empty battery for a charged one. Currently, the company operates over 1,300 stations in China and 10 in Europe. NIO's goal is to increase the PSS to 1,700 in China and 120 in Europe by the end of the year. We expect the company is on the right track to expand overseas and broaden its PSS presence. We believe NIO is well-positioned to beat its deliveries last year after China's reopening, reversing the nation's Zero COVID policies that had caused an economic slowdown in the past. We recommend investors buy the pullback.Price war triggeredWe believe Tesla's price cuts of up to 13.5% in China triggered a price war in the EV space and took a toll on EV manufacturers in the first month of the year, but we don't expect this to pressure NIO in the mid-to-long term. NIO, XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto (LI) recorded sales declines this January; we believe the weakness is the result of disrupted production due to the weeklong Lunar New Year Holiday and Tesla's price cuts. NIO reported 8,506 vehicle deliveries to mainland customers, recording a 46% decline from December and an 11.9% drop Y/Y. While the drop is not insignificant, NIO is relatively resilient compared to XPeng, where deliveries dropped nearly 54% from a month earlier. Still, in comparison, Tesla's sales in China surged 76% in the second week of January compared to the first week. XPeng followed Tesla's footsteps and lowered prices by up to 13% on some of its models. We don't expect NIO to reduce prices, but we're not too worried about Tesla's price cuts pressuring NIO in the mid-to-long term.We believe NIO and other EVs in China have the advantage of having a more diverse product mix than Tesla. Currently, Tesla only has its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles offered in China, while NIO and BYD provide a broad range of alternatives; NIO has six vehicle options, while BYD has 60. We believe Tesla's aging product line is a real issue, even if the price cuts in China boost demand in the near term. We believe Tesla is in trouble if other EV start-ups in China, including NIO, choose to slash prices significantly and simultaneously provide a wider variety of choices. Tesla's market share in China is also shrinking, from 15% in 2020 to 10% in 2022, according to China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data. While Tesla's price cuts have heated demand for the company's vehicles, we don't believe this means it's game over for other EV start-ups, especially not NIO.Another factor in the price war situation is that NIO targets a high-end EV market north of $40,000. NIO's vehicles exist in the price range of around $49,000 to $69,000. We believe NIO's customers should not be too impacted by Tesla's price cuts as we expect NIO retains a unique position in the EV market as the Chinese Tesla, with a foot in EV manufacturing and in the energy business.Valuation and word on Wall StreetWe believe NIO is relatively cheap, trading at 2.2x EV/C2023 Sales versus the peer group at 2.3x. We believe NIO's valuation is attractive at current levels and recommend investors interested in entering the EV market buy into NIO.Wall Street shares our bullish sentiment on the stock. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 26 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. The stock is currently trading at $10 per share. The sell-side median price target is $17, while the mean is $18, with a potential upside of 65-77%.The following tables illustrate NIO's sell-side ratings and price targets.What to do with the stockWe believe NIO is well-positioned for a long-term price rally as it rebounds from the eye of the harsh macro environment. We expect NIO to experience demand tailwinds as it enters and expands its place in the European EV market. We're also constructive on the company's expansion into the energy business as it broadens its power-swapping stations. We expect the stock price to be volatile in the near term due to the slowdown of production during the Lunar New Year Holiday and Tesla's price cuts. Yet, we believe the pullback over the past year provides a favorable entry point into NIO's long-term growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955432773,"gmtCreate":1675658025493,"gmtModify":1676539939127,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955432773","repostId":"2308845164","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2308845164","pubTimestamp":1675635454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2308845164?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-06 06:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq Bear Market: 5 Special Growth Stocks You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2308845164","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A 33% plunge in the Nasdaq Composite is the perfect time to go shopping for game-changing businesses trading at a discount.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Unless you&#39;re a short-seller or were heavily weighted to energy stocks, 2022 was a difficult year on Wall Street. All three of the major U.S. stock indexes dipped into a bear market and produced their worst returns since 2008.</p><p>But it was the growth-centric <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> that took the brunt of the beating. When the curtains closed last year, the index responsible for leading the broader market to new highs in 2021 had lost 33% of its value. Rapidly rising interest rates and the fear of a recession decimated many previously high-flying stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec427077bb169d93d78d5d2d9d5d294\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p>If there&#39;s a silver lining to this turmoil, it&#39;s that every bear market throughout history has eventually given way to a bull-market rally that led Wall Street higher than ever before. In other words, bear markets represent ideal opportunities for patient investors to do some shopping.</p><p>Considering how badly growth stocks have been thrashed, this bear market could be an especially wise time to nab game-changing stocks at a discount. What follows are five special growth stocks you&#39;ll regret not buying during the Nasdaq bear market dip.</p><h2>Teladoc Health</h2><p>The first distinctive growth stock that&#39;s ripe for the picking as the Nasdaq falters is telemedicine kingpin <b>Teladoc Health</b>. Although the company grossly overpaid for applied health signals company Livongo Health in 2020 -- and subsequently took huge writedowns on this deal in 2022 -- Teladoc&#39;s growth trajectory remains intact as it completely reshapes personalized care in the U.S.</p><p>A lot of skeptics consider Teladoc to be nothing more than a COVID-19 pandemic-fad stock. Although the company did enjoy a surge in virtual visits during the pandemic, it had already been growing sales by an annual average of 74% between 2013 and 2019. Even with the worst of the pandemic likely over, Teladoc expects sustained double-digit growth for at least the next five years, if not beyond.</p><p>The beauty of telehealth services is that they can benefit all facets of the healthcare treatment chain. Though virtual visits aren&#39;t appropriate for all physician-patient interactions, they&#39;re considerably more convenient for patients. They also allow physicians to keep closer tabs on patients with chronic illnesses that need more monitoring. The point here is that telemedicine services should improve patient outcomes and, ultimately, lower out of pocket expenses for health insurers.</p><p>With the writedowns tied to the Livongo deal now in the rearview mirror, Teladoc&#39;s 2023 income statement will be a lot cleaner. If the company can maintain double-digit growth, increase its chronic-care subscribership via Livongo, and take steps to reduce its expenses, Teladoc should be set for a nice rebound.</p><h2>Intuitive Surgical</h2><p>The next unique growth stock you&#39;ll regret not buying during the Nasdaq bear market plunge is robotic-assisted surgical system developer <b>Intuitive Surgical</b>. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed some procedures and slowed Intuitive&#39;s growth rate a bit in the short run, the company&#39;s clear-cut competitive advantages make it a screaming buy.</p><p>When 2022 came to a close, Intuitive Surgical had 7,544 of its da Vinci surgical systems installed worldwide. This might not sound like a large number, but it&#39;s far more than any of its competitors.</p><p>To build on this point, the company&#39;s da Vinci surgical systems typically cost between $0.5 million and $2.5 million. The sizable nominal-dollar investment for these systems, coupled with the time it takes to train surgeons to use da Vinci, makes it <i>extremely</i> <i>unlikely</i> that buyers are going to switch to a competing surgical system. In short, Intuitive Surgical can count on predictable cash flow year in and year out.</p><p>But the best thing about this company might just be its razor-and-blades operating model. The &#34;razor&#34; is the company&#39;s da Vinci surgical system, which is pricey but doesn&#39;t generate the best margins. Getting hospitals and surgical centers to buy this razor means they&#39;ll come back for the high-margin &#34;blades,&#34; such as instruments sold with each procedure and servicing on da Vinci systems. Intuitive Surgical&#39;s earnings growth can outpace sales growth as these blades grow into a larger percentage of total revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d9298151d6c177ae534d0dffd4c7ec\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Pinterest.</span></p><h2>Pinterest</h2><p>A third special growth stock you&#39;ll regret not scooping up during the Nasdaq bear market downturn is social media company <b>Pinterest</b>. Though near-term ad-spending concerns have weighed on the stock, Pinterest has demonstrated it has the tools and intangibles to head much higher.</p><p>A lot has been made of Pinterest&#39;s monthly active user (MAU) decline/flattened growth since March 2021. However, this overlooks the abnormally large MAU surge the company experienced during the early stages of the pandemic when people were stuck in their homes. If you examine MAU growth over a longer stretch, such as five years, you&#39;ll see a fairly steady upward trend.</p><p>What&#39;s more important than aggregate user growth is that Pinterest is successfully monetizing the 445 million MAUs it does have. Even with ad-driven companies sounding the warning of slower growth throughout 2022, Pinterest delivered an 11% global increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) in the quarter that ended in September. Sustained double-digit ARPU growth is a clear sign that advertisers are willing to pay a premium to reach Pinterest&#39;s large army of potential shoppers.</p><p>Lastly, investors need to realize that data-tracking changes implemented by app developers aren&#39;t much of a headwind for Pinterest. Since its entire platform is based on MAUs willingly sharing the things, places, and services they like, merchants can use this data to target users. It sets Pinterest up to become a key e-commerce player in the years to come.</p><h2>Fiverr International</h2><p>The fourth one-of-a-kind growth stock you&#39;ll regret not picking up during the Nasdaq bear market drop is online-services marketplace <b>Fiverr International</b>. In spite of the growing likelihood of a recession this year, Fiverr&#39;s truly unique platform can still outperform.</p><p>I have previously pounded the table on Fiverr, and three catalysts stand out. To start with, the labor market has undergone what looks like a permanent shift to a hybrid-work environment. Even though some people have returned to the office, the pandemic has ballooned the number of remote workers. That&#39;s great news for a freelancer-based platform like Fiverr.</p><p>Second, Fiverr&#39;s online marketplace presents freelancer tasks as a complete package. In other words, buyers know exactly how much they&#39;re paying for a service ahead of time. That compares to other freelancer websites on which pricing is often presented on an hourly basis. This cost transparency has helped push both the aggregate number of buyers on Fiverr and spending per buyer successively higher throughout 2022.</p><p>And third, Fiverr&#39;s take rate is likely tops among gig economy marketplaces. The &#34;take rate&#34; describes the percentage of each deal negotiated on its platform it gets to keep. Fiverr&#39;s take has steadily climbed and hit 30% on the nose in the third quarter. This means Fiverr is keeping a greater percentage of each deal, yet it&#39;s still attracting new freelancers and buyers. That&#39;s a winning formula if I&#39;ve ever seen one.</p><h2>Upstart Holdings</h2><p>A fifth special growth stock you&#39;ll regret not buying on the Nasdaq bear market dip is cloud-based lending platform <b>Upstart Holdings</b>. Even though rapidly rising interest rates are doing Upstart no favors, the company&#39;s lending solutions have an opportunity to completely transform an industry in dire need of disruption.</p><p>The traditional loan-vetting process tends to be costly and time-consuming. Upstart&#39;s loan platform relies on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning capabilities to quickly vet loan applications. The quarter ended in September saw 75% of all loan applications approved and fully automated. This puts money into the hands of applicants faster than ever and significantly reduces costs for Upstart&#39;s 83 bank/credit union partners.</p><p>But what&#39;s arguably been most intriguing about Upstart&#39;s AI-driven lending platform is that it&#39;s approving a wider swath of the population for personal loans. Despite Upstart approvals having a lower average credit score than people vetted with the traditional process, the company notes that delinquency rates have been similar between the two processes.</p><p>If Upstart can maintain this similarity in both favorable and unfavorable market conditions, it can substantially broaden the lending pool for financial institutions without worsening their credit-risk profiles.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that Upstart is very early in its growth cycle. The personal loans it&#39;s focused on account for $146 billion of the $5 trillion annual loan-origination market. Last year, Upstart began pushing into auto loans, which account for $786 billion in annual loan originations. If the Fed takes its foot off the accelerator in the coming months and slows its pace of interest rate hikes, Upstart could see a steady rebound in loan-processing demand.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq Bear Market: 5 Special Growth Stocks You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq Bear Market: 5 Special Growth Stocks You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-06 06:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/04/nasdaq-bear-market-5-growth-stocks-regret-not-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Unless you're a short-seller or were heavily weighted to energy stocks, 2022 was a difficult year on Wall Street. All three of the major U.S. stock indexes dipped into a bear market and produced their...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/04/nasdaq-bear-market-5-growth-stocks-regret-not-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4167":"医疗保健技术","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","BK4543":"AI","BK4166":"消费信贷","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","FVRR":"Fiverr International Ltd.","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","LU0058720904.USD":"联博国际健康护理基金A","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4528":"SaaS概念","ISRG":"直觉外科公司","BK4023":"应用软件","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/04/nasdaq-bear-market-5-growth-stocks-regret-not-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2308845164","content_text":"Unless you're a short-seller or were heavily weighted to energy stocks, 2022 was a difficult year on Wall Street. All three of the major U.S. stock indexes dipped into a bear market and produced their worst returns since 2008.But it was the growth-centric Nasdaq Composite that took the brunt of the beating. When the curtains closed last year, the index responsible for leading the broader market to new highs in 2021 had lost 33% of its value. Rapidly rising interest rates and the fear of a recession decimated many previously high-flying stocks.Image source: Getty Images.If there's a silver lining to this turmoil, it's that every bear market throughout history has eventually given way to a bull-market rally that led Wall Street higher than ever before. In other words, bear markets represent ideal opportunities for patient investors to do some shopping.Considering how badly growth stocks have been thrashed, this bear market could be an especially wise time to nab game-changing stocks at a discount. What follows are five special growth stocks you'll regret not buying during the Nasdaq bear market dip.Teladoc HealthThe first distinctive growth stock that's ripe for the picking as the Nasdaq falters is telemedicine kingpin Teladoc Health. Although the company grossly overpaid for applied health signals company Livongo Health in 2020 -- and subsequently took huge writedowns on this deal in 2022 -- Teladoc's growth trajectory remains intact as it completely reshapes personalized care in the U.S.A lot of skeptics consider Teladoc to be nothing more than a COVID-19 pandemic-fad stock. Although the company did enjoy a surge in virtual visits during the pandemic, it had already been growing sales by an annual average of 74% between 2013 and 2019. Even with the worst of the pandemic likely over, Teladoc expects sustained double-digit growth for at least the next five years, if not beyond.The beauty of telehealth services is that they can benefit all facets of the healthcare treatment chain. Though virtual visits aren't appropriate for all physician-patient interactions, they're considerably more convenient for patients. They also allow physicians to keep closer tabs on patients with chronic illnesses that need more monitoring. The point here is that telemedicine services should improve patient outcomes and, ultimately, lower out of pocket expenses for health insurers.With the writedowns tied to the Livongo deal now in the rearview mirror, Teladoc's 2023 income statement will be a lot cleaner. If the company can maintain double-digit growth, increase its chronic-care subscribership via Livongo, and take steps to reduce its expenses, Teladoc should be set for a nice rebound.Intuitive SurgicalThe next unique growth stock you'll regret not buying during the Nasdaq bear market plunge is robotic-assisted surgical system developer Intuitive Surgical. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed some procedures and slowed Intuitive's growth rate a bit in the short run, the company's clear-cut competitive advantages make it a screaming buy.When 2022 came to a close, Intuitive Surgical had 7,544 of its da Vinci surgical systems installed worldwide. This might not sound like a large number, but it's far more than any of its competitors.To build on this point, the company's da Vinci surgical systems typically cost between $0.5 million and $2.5 million. The sizable nominal-dollar investment for these systems, coupled with the time it takes to train surgeons to use da Vinci, makes it extremely unlikely that buyers are going to switch to a competing surgical system. In short, Intuitive Surgical can count on predictable cash flow year in and year out.But the best thing about this company might just be its razor-and-blades operating model. The \"razor\" is the company's da Vinci surgical system, which is pricey but doesn't generate the best margins. Getting hospitals and surgical centers to buy this razor means they'll come back for the high-margin \"blades,\" such as instruments sold with each procedure and servicing on da Vinci systems. Intuitive Surgical's earnings growth can outpace sales growth as these blades grow into a larger percentage of total revenue.Image source: Pinterest.PinterestA third special growth stock you'll regret not scooping up during the Nasdaq bear market downturn is social media company Pinterest. Though near-term ad-spending concerns have weighed on the stock, Pinterest has demonstrated it has the tools and intangibles to head much higher.A lot has been made of Pinterest's monthly active user (MAU) decline/flattened growth since March 2021. However, this overlooks the abnormally large MAU surge the company experienced during the early stages of the pandemic when people were stuck in their homes. If you examine MAU growth over a longer stretch, such as five years, you'll see a fairly steady upward trend.What's more important than aggregate user growth is that Pinterest is successfully monetizing the 445 million MAUs it does have. Even with ad-driven companies sounding the warning of slower growth throughout 2022, Pinterest delivered an 11% global increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) in the quarter that ended in September. Sustained double-digit ARPU growth is a clear sign that advertisers are willing to pay a premium to reach Pinterest's large army of potential shoppers.Lastly, investors need to realize that data-tracking changes implemented by app developers aren't much of a headwind for Pinterest. Since its entire platform is based on MAUs willingly sharing the things, places, and services they like, merchants can use this data to target users. It sets Pinterest up to become a key e-commerce player in the years to come.Fiverr InternationalThe fourth one-of-a-kind growth stock you'll regret not picking up during the Nasdaq bear market drop is online-services marketplace Fiverr International. In spite of the growing likelihood of a recession this year, Fiverr's truly unique platform can still outperform.I have previously pounded the table on Fiverr, and three catalysts stand out. To start with, the labor market has undergone what looks like a permanent shift to a hybrid-work environment. Even though some people have returned to the office, the pandemic has ballooned the number of remote workers. That's great news for a freelancer-based platform like Fiverr.Second, Fiverr's online marketplace presents freelancer tasks as a complete package. In other words, buyers know exactly how much they're paying for a service ahead of time. That compares to other freelancer websites on which pricing is often presented on an hourly basis. This cost transparency has helped push both the aggregate number of buyers on Fiverr and spending per buyer successively higher throughout 2022.And third, Fiverr's take rate is likely tops among gig economy marketplaces. The \"take rate\" describes the percentage of each deal negotiated on its platform it gets to keep. Fiverr's take has steadily climbed and hit 30% on the nose in the third quarter. This means Fiverr is keeping a greater percentage of each deal, yet it's still attracting new freelancers and buyers. That's a winning formula if I've ever seen one.Upstart HoldingsA fifth special growth stock you'll regret not buying on the Nasdaq bear market dip is cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings. Even though rapidly rising interest rates are doing Upstart no favors, the company's lending solutions have an opportunity to completely transform an industry in dire need of disruption.The traditional loan-vetting process tends to be costly and time-consuming. Upstart's loan platform relies on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning capabilities to quickly vet loan applications. The quarter ended in September saw 75% of all loan applications approved and fully automated. This puts money into the hands of applicants faster than ever and significantly reduces costs for Upstart's 83 bank/credit union partners.But what's arguably been most intriguing about Upstart's AI-driven lending platform is that it's approving a wider swath of the population for personal loans. Despite Upstart approvals having a lower average credit score than people vetted with the traditional process, the company notes that delinquency rates have been similar between the two processes.If Upstart can maintain this similarity in both favorable and unfavorable market conditions, it can substantially broaden the lending pool for financial institutions without worsening their credit-risk profiles.It's also worth noting that Upstart is very early in its growth cycle. The personal loans it's focused on account for $146 billion of the $5 trillion annual loan-origination market. Last year, Upstart began pushing into auto loans, which account for $786 billion in annual loan originations. If the Fed takes its foot off the accelerator in the coming months and slows its pace of interest rate hikes, Upstart could see a steady rebound in loan-processing demand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955110104,"gmtCreate":1675263783208,"gmtModify":1676538988499,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HSI\">$HSI(HSI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Possible?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HSI\">$HSI(HSI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Possible?","text":"$HSI(HSI)$ Possible?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955110104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955010201,"gmtCreate":1675064977203,"gmtModify":1676538973395,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955010201","repostId":"2307213302","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2307213302","pubTimestamp":1675061373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2307213302?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-30 14:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2307213302","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe Federal Reserve appears to be losing control of the market.Financial conditions have ease","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The Federal Reserve appears to be losing control of the market.</li><li>Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the December FOMC meeting.</li><li>The Fed needs to push back against the market before it is too late.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0b68892d8645315b783509081590f0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It appears that the Federal Reserve is losing control of the market. Financial conditions have eased to levels not seen since the spring of 2022. This easing has led to increases in commodity prices, drops in mortgage rates, a weakening ofthe dollar, and a rally in stocks.</p><p>The February FOMC will take on extra importance because the Fed will need to push back on the current easing of financial conditions. If the Fed truly believes that monetary policy is transmitted through financial conditions, then the Fed hasn&#39;t been successful. Conditions are currently at levels equal to when the Fed first started to raise rates. These conditions are accommodative to the economy and aid in its expansion, exactly the opposite of the Fed&#39;s desire to get the economy to grow at a below-trend rate.</p><p>Pushing back atthis point in the game may be even harder than it was when Powell gave his Jackson Hole speech. The market knows the Fed is closer to the end of its rate hiking cycle than the beginning. The market also expects inflation to continue to drop. This means the Fed can either raise rates by 50 bps, which would be a big surprise to markets, or give guidance that financial conditions have eased too much, which will extend the rate tightening cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbe207b1b71276d33c158bc7b06111f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2><b>Prices Are Rising</b></h2><p>One effect of easing financial conditions is rising commodity prices. The average national price for regular unleaded gasoline increased by 9.4% in January, indicating that we may see a resurgence in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a month-over-month basis when the January report is released.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6219bd4f36ea6727dd427f572c9f76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Also, copper prices have risen dramatically. Changes in copper prices can lead to changes in year-over-year changes in CPI. The recent increase in copper prices is due to two factors: the reopening of China and a weaker dollar. While the Federal Reserve cannot control the enthusiasm for a rebound in the Chinese economy, it can attempt to tighten financial conditions, strengthening the dollar and potentially slowing the copper rally.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab717ffe912bd6c307e1a6c5a83d2ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Meanwhile, lumber prices have risen dramatically this month as new home sales begin to pick up again. This appears to be a result of the easing of financial conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd34110a43c078f78eedd1ffc1fc9757\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2><b>The Return of Inflation</b></h2><p>These issues challenge Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee because the easing of financial conditions has increased inflationary impulses. According to the latest estimates from the Cleveland Fed, this is expected to result in a 60 basis point month-over-month increase in the headline Consumer Price Index in January. This would be the most significant increase in the monthly change of CPI since June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e61e00d682016c7784c65f6a79b3133e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Based on those estimates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could rise by 6.4% in January, showing no significant improvement compared to December. Inflation swaps for January have also been ticking higher in recent weeks, indicating that the market is also now expecting a higher reading in January.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700c6aacb37d131c8a6876e80ece1cb4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This is a real risk for the Federal Reserve if the Cleveland Fed&#39;s predictions come true, as it would negate the progress the Fed has made since the summer peak in inflation and could call into question whether the downtrend we have witnessed in inflation has begun to reverse.</p><p>The bottom line is that the Fed cannot afford to have financial conditions ease any further and needs them to start tightening again to slow the inflationary impulses that appear to be coming back to life. According to the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, conditions have returned to levels seen in February 2022, before the Fed started raising rates and only discussed the possibility of raising rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8bcaf7ae973c1a5c9e15f6af9910c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2><b>Sufficiently Restrictive</b></h2><p>Additionally, from a monetary policy standpoint, the overnight rate is roughly even with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate. The Fed has made it clear that it wants rates to be sufficiently restrictive, and for that to happen, rates will need to rise to a point where they are above the core PCE inflation rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b20ca05c73325fee19becf20aea637d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Chris Waller, a Fed official, indicated what the Fed considers to be sufficiently restrictive in aninterviewlast week when he noted that sufficiently restrictive rates are when real rates are 1.5% to 2% above the forecasted inflation rate. He said that if you look to the end of the year and market forecasts for an inflation rate of 2.5% to 3%, getting to a 5% rate would be sufficiently restrictive.</p><p>This may be the best indication yet that the Fed has given to the market about what it is thinking about when it comes to where it thinks rates need to be to bring the economy and inflation back into balance and why the Fed isn&#39;t going to back off raising rates before it reaches a 5% overnight rate at the lower bound.</p><p>Additionally, the key metric that the Fed is watching is the PCE core services ex-housing, and based on data from Bloomberg, that has been a stubborn number that hasn&#39;t come down and is hovering around 4.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8453ed074a69535b1f6b1a3bbb711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2><b>It Needs To Push Back</b></h2><p>If the Fed doesn&#39;t act at this point and push back against the current easing of financial conditions, which it has repeatedly noted helps to transmit monetary policy through the economy, then all may be lost. Because at this point, the market does not believe the Fed when it says that it wants monetary policy to be sufficiently restrictive and wants to slow growth to below trend and is willing to endure these things to kill inflationary impulses that still clearly exist.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s options are limited at this point but can do this by going against the collective belief that the Fed will only raise rates by 25 basis points and instead raise rates by 50 basis points. Or, Powell will have to give a very forceful message, possibly more forceful than the one given at Jackson Hole, and threaten that rates may not go higher than what was thought in December due to unwarranted easing of financial conditions. Otherwise, he may need to raise the topic of potentially increasing the pace of quantitative tightening and the balance sheet run-off.</p><p>Anything else would suggest that the Fed is okay with the current easing of financial conditions and is willing to tolerate the market taking control and driving monetary policy, which seems like a disaster just waiting to happen.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-30 14:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573314-fed-send-extremely-hawkish-message-markets><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe Federal Reserve appears to be losing control of the market.Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the December FOMC meeting.The Fed needs to push back against the market before ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573314-fed-send-extremely-hawkish-message-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573314-fed-send-extremely-hawkish-message-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2307213302","content_text":"SummaryThe Federal Reserve appears to be losing control of the market.Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the December FOMC meeting.The Fed needs to push back against the market before it is too late.It appears that the Federal Reserve is losing control of the market. Financial conditions have eased to levels not seen since the spring of 2022. This easing has led to increases in commodity prices, drops in mortgage rates, a weakening ofthe dollar, and a rally in stocks.The February FOMC will take on extra importance because the Fed will need to push back on the current easing of financial conditions. If the Fed truly believes that monetary policy is transmitted through financial conditions, then the Fed hasn't been successful. Conditions are currently at levels equal to when the Fed first started to raise rates. These conditions are accommodative to the economy and aid in its expansion, exactly the opposite of the Fed's desire to get the economy to grow at a below-trend rate.Pushing back atthis point in the game may be even harder than it was when Powell gave his Jackson Hole speech. The market knows the Fed is closer to the end of its rate hiking cycle than the beginning. The market also expects inflation to continue to drop. This means the Fed can either raise rates by 50 bps, which would be a big surprise to markets, or give guidance that financial conditions have eased too much, which will extend the rate tightening cycle.BloombergPrices Are RisingOne effect of easing financial conditions is rising commodity prices. The average national price for regular unleaded gasoline increased by 9.4% in January, indicating that we may see a resurgence in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a month-over-month basis when the January report is released.BloombergAlso, copper prices have risen dramatically. Changes in copper prices can lead to changes in year-over-year changes in CPI. The recent increase in copper prices is due to two factors: the reopening of China and a weaker dollar. While the Federal Reserve cannot control the enthusiasm for a rebound in the Chinese economy, it can attempt to tighten financial conditions, strengthening the dollar and potentially slowing the copper rally.BloombergMeanwhile, lumber prices have risen dramatically this month as new home sales begin to pick up again. This appears to be a result of the easing of financial conditions.BloombergThe Return of InflationThese issues challenge Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee because the easing of financial conditions has increased inflationary impulses. According to the latest estimates from the Cleveland Fed, this is expected to result in a 60 basis point month-over-month increase in the headline Consumer Price Index in January. This would be the most significant increase in the monthly change of CPI since June.BloombergBased on those estimates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could rise by 6.4% in January, showing no significant improvement compared to December. Inflation swaps for January have also been ticking higher in recent weeks, indicating that the market is also now expecting a higher reading in January.BloombergThis is a real risk for the Federal Reserve if the Cleveland Fed's predictions come true, as it would negate the progress the Fed has made since the summer peak in inflation and could call into question whether the downtrend we have witnessed in inflation has begun to reverse.The bottom line is that the Fed cannot afford to have financial conditions ease any further and needs them to start tightening again to slow the inflationary impulses that appear to be coming back to life. According to the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, conditions have returned to levels seen in February 2022, before the Fed started raising rates and only discussed the possibility of raising rates.BloombergSufficiently RestrictiveAdditionally, from a monetary policy standpoint, the overnight rate is roughly even with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate. The Fed has made it clear that it wants rates to be sufficiently restrictive, and for that to happen, rates will need to rise to a point where they are above the core PCE inflation rate.BloombergChris Waller, a Fed official, indicated what the Fed considers to be sufficiently restrictive in aninterviewlast week when he noted that sufficiently restrictive rates are when real rates are 1.5% to 2% above the forecasted inflation rate. He said that if you look to the end of the year and market forecasts for an inflation rate of 2.5% to 3%, getting to a 5% rate would be sufficiently restrictive.This may be the best indication yet that the Fed has given to the market about what it is thinking about when it comes to where it thinks rates need to be to bring the economy and inflation back into balance and why the Fed isn't going to back off raising rates before it reaches a 5% overnight rate at the lower bound.Additionally, the key metric that the Fed is watching is the PCE core services ex-housing, and based on data from Bloomberg, that has been a stubborn number that hasn't come down and is hovering around 4.1%.BloombergIt Needs To Push BackIf the Fed doesn't act at this point and push back against the current easing of financial conditions, which it has repeatedly noted helps to transmit monetary policy through the economy, then all may be lost. Because at this point, the market does not believe the Fed when it says that it wants monetary policy to be sufficiently restrictive and wants to slow growth to below trend and is willing to endure these things to kill inflationary impulses that still clearly exist.The Fed's options are limited at this point but can do this by going against the collective belief that the Fed will only raise rates by 25 basis points and instead raise rates by 50 basis points. Or, Powell will have to give a very forceful message, possibly more forceful than the one given at Jackson Hole, and threaten that rates may not go higher than what was thought in December due to unwarranted easing of financial conditions. Otherwise, he may need to raise the topic of potentially increasing the pace of quantitative tightening and the balance sheet run-off.Anything else would suggest that the Fed is okay with the current easing of financial conditions and is willing to tolerate the market taking control and driving monetary policy, which seems like a disaster just waiting to happen.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955010180,"gmtCreate":1675064851540,"gmtModify":1676538973368,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955010180","repostId":"1140083087","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140083087","pubTimestamp":1674955482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140083087?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-29 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Set to Shrink Rate Hikes Again as Inflation Slows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140083087","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"US jobs report may point to possible soft landing for economyECB, BOE seen raising rates while Brazi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>US jobs report may point to possible soft landing for economy</li><li>ECB, BOE seen raising rates while Brazil stays on hold</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5cd79c8e9e28144887d0ae592c5c50b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Federal Reserve officials are set to shift down the pace of interest-rate hikes again in the coming week amid signs of slowing inflation, while Friday’s jobs report may show steady demand for workers that improves the chances of a soft landing for the the world’s largest economy.</p><p>Policy makers are poised to raise their benchmark federal funds rateby a quarter percentage pointon Wednesday, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, dialing back the size of the increase for a second-straight meeting.</p><p>The move would follow a slew of recent data suggesting the Fed’s aggressive campaign to slow inflation is working.</p><p>“I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harkersaid in a Jan. 20 speech. “Hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9347164d4cb8eac2800160289e2a05f\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Key questions for Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference will be how much higher the central bank intends to raise rates, and what officials need to see before pausing.</p><p>Fed officials have made clear they also want to see evidence that supply and demand imbalances in the labor market are starting to improve.</p><p>Hiring probably slowed in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who projected employers added 185,000 jobs compared with 223,000 in December. They see the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.6%, still near a five-decade low, and expect average hourly earnings rose 4.3% from a year earlier, a slowdown from the prior month, according to their median estimate.</p><p>The Fed will get another important read on inflation Tuesday when the Labor Department releases the Employment Cost Index, a broad measure of wages and benefits. Figures on job openings for December are also due Wednesday, as well as a January survey of manufacturers.</p><blockquote>“The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation data has come in softer than expected, and activity indicators have shown slowing momentum over the past month; on the other, financial conditions have eased as traders believe the Fed will soon switch to rate cuts. The data would justify smaller rate hikes, but the Fed is likely to see easier financial conditions — while inflation remains uncomfortably above-target — as a reason to act hawkishly.”</blockquote><blockquote>—Anna Wong, Eliza Winger and Niraj Shah, economists. For full analysis,click here</blockquote><p>Elsewhere, the day after the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will each probably raise rates by a half point, after euro-zone data are likely to showslowing inflationand a stagnating economy. Meanwhile, surveys from China might reveal improvement, Brazil’s central bank may keep borrowing costs unchanged, and the International Monetary Fund will publish its latest global economic forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ea25ce452d1e9284eb58df2f779cd7c\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>Asia</h2><p>China returns to work after the Lunar New Year holiday with thestrength of its economyin close focus.</p><p>Official PMIs due on Tuesday are likely to improve sharply from December’s dismal readings, but the manufacturing sector is still not expected to return to a clear expansion. They’ll be followed by PMIs from across Asia on Wednesday.</p><p>Japan releases factory output, retail sales and jobless figures that may cast doubt on the strength of the economy’s rebound from a summer contraction.</p><p>India unveils its latestbudgetin the middle of the week as policy makers there try to keep growth on track while reining in the deficit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bfa66ec31a19cb20218c965a11d5eac\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"551\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Export figures from South Korea will provide a pulse check on global commerce on Wednesday, while inflation figures the next day will be closely scrutinized by the Bank of Korea.</p><p>Trade figures are also due from New Zealand, though jobless figures will be the main concern for the RBNZ as it mulls the possibility of smaller rate hikes.</p><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia will be keeping an eye on house prices and retail sales data in the run-up to its rate decision the following week.</p><h2>Europe, Middle East, Africa</h2><p>Major rate decisions will dominate the news in Europe, with the first meetings of the year at central banks in both the euro zone and the UK.</p><p>Before the ECB on Thursday, key data will draw attention forclues on the path for policy. Economists are split on whether GDP for the euro area on Tuesday will show a contraction in the fourth quarter — potentially heralding a recession — or whether the region avoided a slump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd22500bcb257b9d4664eef4c0b5172c\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The next day, euro-zone inflation in January is anticipated to have slowed for a third month, though a small minority of forecasters predict an acceleration.</p><p>Growth and consumer-price data from the region’s three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — are also due in the first half of the week, making it a busy few days for investors.</p><p>The so-called core underlying measure of inflation may show just a slight weakening. That gauge is drawing more focus from officials justifying further aggression on policy tightening.</p><p>The ECB decision itself is almost certain to feature both ahalf-point rate increaseand more details of the plan to wind down bond holdings built up over years of quantitative easing.</p><p>Given President Christine Lagarde’s penchant for hinting at future decisions, investors may focus on any outlook she divulges for March in her press conference, at a time when officials are increasingly at odds over whether to slow tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c979d8da0a4318e5540f569f2dcb7be5\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"898\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TheBOE decisionwill also take place on Thursday, and may too feature a half-point rate increase. That would extend the UK’s quickest monetary tightening in three decades. Whileinflationhas fallen in each of the past two months, it remains five times the central bank’s 2% target.</p><p>That day, too, theCzech central bankis likely to keep rates unchanged at the highest level since 1999 and present a fresh inflation outlook.</p><p>Looking south, Ghana is expected to raise borrowing costs on Monday after faster-than-expected price growth in the last two months of 2022 and renewed volatility in the cedi, as the country negotiates arestructuring planfor its debt.</p><p>The same day,Kenyan policy makersare poised to slow tightening after inflation eased for two straight months. They’re expected to raise borrowing costs by a quarter-percentage point.</p><p>Egypt, where the yield onlocal Treasury billshas already widened to a record over peers in emerging markets, may hike rates again on Thursday with inflation running at a five-year high.</p><h2>Latin America</h2><p>Mexico this week becomes the first of the region’s big economies to post Oct-Dec output. Most analysts see GDP grinding lower for a third straight quarter, and more than a few forecast a mild recession some time in 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06faa233794aede01e939fe9ffb23df\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>December remittance data due at midweek are likely to comfortably push the full-2022 figure over $57 billion, easily bettering the previous record annual haul of $51.6 billion set in 2021.</p><p>Chile over the course of three days posts at least seven economic indicators, led by the December GDP-proxy reading that’s expected to be consistent with an economy tipping into recession.</p><p>In Colombia, the readout of the central bank’s Jan. 27 gathering — where policy makers extended a record hiking campaign — will be posted on Tuesday. At 12.75%,BanRepmay be nearing its terminal rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329a91da78fe020ca6d249eb6b8fab4c\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"581\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In Brazil, look for the broadest measure of inflation to have slowed in January while industrial output continues to struggle.</p><p>With inflation now only making glacial progress back to target, Brazilian central bankers this week have little choice but to keep the key rate at 13.75% for a fourth meeting. Economists surveyed by the bank see just229 basis points of slowingover the next four years, which would mean missing the target for a seventh straight year in 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Set to Shrink Rate Hikes Again as Inflation Slows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Set to Shrink Rate Hikes Again as Inflation Slows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-29 09:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-28/fed-latest-us-central-bank-set-to-shrink-rate-hikes-again-as-inflation-slows?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>US jobs report may point to possible soft landing for economyECB, BOE seen raising rates while Brazil stays on holdFederal Reserve officials are set to shift down the pace of interest-rate hikes again...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-28/fed-latest-us-central-bank-set-to-shrink-rate-hikes-again-as-inflation-slows?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-28/fed-latest-us-central-bank-set-to-shrink-rate-hikes-again-as-inflation-slows?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140083087","content_text":"US jobs report may point to possible soft landing for economyECB, BOE seen raising rates while Brazil stays on holdFederal Reserve officials are set to shift down the pace of interest-rate hikes again in the coming week amid signs of slowing inflation, while Friday’s jobs report may show steady demand for workers that improves the chances of a soft landing for the the world’s largest economy.Policy makers are poised to raise their benchmark federal funds rateby a quarter percentage pointon Wednesday, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, dialing back the size of the increase for a second-straight meeting.The move would follow a slew of recent data suggesting the Fed’s aggressive campaign to slow inflation is working.“I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harkersaid in a Jan. 20 speech. “Hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward.”Key questions for Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference will be how much higher the central bank intends to raise rates, and what officials need to see before pausing.Fed officials have made clear they also want to see evidence that supply and demand imbalances in the labor market are starting to improve.Hiring probably slowed in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who projected employers added 185,000 jobs compared with 223,000 in December. They see the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.6%, still near a five-decade low, and expect average hourly earnings rose 4.3% from a year earlier, a slowdown from the prior month, according to their median estimate.The Fed will get another important read on inflation Tuesday when the Labor Department releases the Employment Cost Index, a broad measure of wages and benefits. Figures on job openings for December are also due Wednesday, as well as a January survey of manufacturers.“The Fed faces a dilemma: On the one hand, inflation data has come in softer than expected, and activity indicators have shown slowing momentum over the past month; on the other, financial conditions have eased as traders believe the Fed will soon switch to rate cuts. The data would justify smaller rate hikes, but the Fed is likely to see easier financial conditions — while inflation remains uncomfortably above-target — as a reason to act hawkishly.”—Anna Wong, Eliza Winger and Niraj Shah, economists. For full analysis,click hereElsewhere, the day after the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will each probably raise rates by a half point, after euro-zone data are likely to showslowing inflationand a stagnating economy. Meanwhile, surveys from China might reveal improvement, Brazil’s central bank may keep borrowing costs unchanged, and the International Monetary Fund will publish its latest global economic forecasts.AsiaChina returns to work after the Lunar New Year holiday with thestrength of its economyin close focus.Official PMIs due on Tuesday are likely to improve sharply from December’s dismal readings, but the manufacturing sector is still not expected to return to a clear expansion. They’ll be followed by PMIs from across Asia on Wednesday.Japan releases factory output, retail sales and jobless figures that may cast doubt on the strength of the economy’s rebound from a summer contraction.India unveils its latestbudgetin the middle of the week as policy makers there try to keep growth on track while reining in the deficit.Export figures from South Korea will provide a pulse check on global commerce on Wednesday, while inflation figures the next day will be closely scrutinized by the Bank of Korea.Trade figures are also due from New Zealand, though jobless figures will be the main concern for the RBNZ as it mulls the possibility of smaller rate hikes.The Reserve Bank of Australia will be keeping an eye on house prices and retail sales data in the run-up to its rate decision the following week.Europe, Middle East, AfricaMajor rate decisions will dominate the news in Europe, with the first meetings of the year at central banks in both the euro zone and the UK.Before the ECB on Thursday, key data will draw attention forclues on the path for policy. Economists are split on whether GDP for the euro area on Tuesday will show a contraction in the fourth quarter — potentially heralding a recession — or whether the region avoided a slump.The next day, euro-zone inflation in January is anticipated to have slowed for a third month, though a small minority of forecasters predict an acceleration.Growth and consumer-price data from the region’s three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — are also due in the first half of the week, making it a busy few days for investors.The so-called core underlying measure of inflation may show just a slight weakening. That gauge is drawing more focus from officials justifying further aggression on policy tightening.The ECB decision itself is almost certain to feature both ahalf-point rate increaseand more details of the plan to wind down bond holdings built up over years of quantitative easing.Given President Christine Lagarde’s penchant for hinting at future decisions, investors may focus on any outlook she divulges for March in her press conference, at a time when officials are increasingly at odds over whether to slow tightening.TheBOE decisionwill also take place on Thursday, and may too feature a half-point rate increase. That would extend the UK’s quickest monetary tightening in three decades. Whileinflationhas fallen in each of the past two months, it remains five times the central bank’s 2% target.That day, too, theCzech central bankis likely to keep rates unchanged at the highest level since 1999 and present a fresh inflation outlook.Looking south, Ghana is expected to raise borrowing costs on Monday after faster-than-expected price growth in the last two months of 2022 and renewed volatility in the cedi, as the country negotiates arestructuring planfor its debt.The same day,Kenyan policy makersare poised to slow tightening after inflation eased for two straight months. They’re expected to raise borrowing costs by a quarter-percentage point.Egypt, where the yield onlocal Treasury billshas already widened to a record over peers in emerging markets, may hike rates again on Thursday with inflation running at a five-year high.Latin AmericaMexico this week becomes the first of the region’s big economies to post Oct-Dec output. Most analysts see GDP grinding lower for a third straight quarter, and more than a few forecast a mild recession some time in 2023.December remittance data due at midweek are likely to comfortably push the full-2022 figure over $57 billion, easily bettering the previous record annual haul of $51.6 billion set in 2021.Chile over the course of three days posts at least seven economic indicators, led by the December GDP-proxy reading that’s expected to be consistent with an economy tipping into recession.In Colombia, the readout of the central bank’s Jan. 27 gathering — where policy makers extended a record hiking campaign — will be posted on Tuesday. At 12.75%,BanRepmay be nearing its terminal rate.In Brazil, look for the broadest measure of inflation to have slowed in January while industrial output continues to struggle.With inflation now only making glacial progress back to target, Brazilian central bankers this week have little choice but to keep the key rate at 13.75% for a fourth meeting. Economists surveyed by the bank see just229 basis points of slowingover the next four years, which would mean missing the target for a seventh straight year in 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952884190,"gmtCreate":1674612209711,"gmtModify":1676538949008,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952884190","repostId":"2306495123","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2306495123","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1674603819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2306495123?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-25 07:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Stock Turns Negative After Forecast Misses, CFO Warns About Deceleration","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2306495123","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Microsoft suggests sales in the current quarter will come in at least $1 billion lower than Wall Str","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Microsoft suggests sales in the current quarter will come in at least $1 billion lower than Wall Street expected as December slowdown is projected to continue into new year, gains of 4% and disappear in after-hours trading</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824503f0217521fd863e450d46b66b5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Microsoft Corp. reported fiscal second-quarter earnings Tuesday. AFP/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Microsoft Corp.’s profit declined more than 12% in the holiday season, and executives said Tuesday that a revenue deceleration in December is expected to continue into the new year as the company lays off workers.</p><p>Microsoft reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $16.43 billion, or $2.20 a share, a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago. The company also reported that severance, impairment and lease-consolidation costs cost it 12 cents a share, which would lead to adjusted earnings of $2.32 a share; Microsoft executives did not provide adjusted earnings a year ago, and typically stick to GAAP profit readings.</p><p>Revenue increased to $52.75 billion from $51.7 billion in the holiday quarter of 2022. Analysts on average expected earnings of $2.29 a share on sales of $52.99 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p>For the current quarter, Microsoft executives expect revenue of $50.5 billion to $51.5 billion, according to guidance provided by Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood in a conference call Tuesday afternoon. Analysts on average were expecting fiscal third-quarter revenue of $52.42 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p>Hood said that Microsoft observed a slowdown in customer spending in December, and expects that to continue. Azure grew by 38% in constant currency, topping expectations, but Hood said that they exited December in the “mid-30s” after the deceleration, and executives expect that percentage to fall four or five points in the current quarter. Analysts were projecting Azure growth of 27.8% for the quarter, or 33.7% in constant currency, according to FactSet.</p><p>Microsoft shares gained more than 4% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, but they began to drop after the forecast and December deceleration news were shared. The stock was down 1% as of 8:00 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971139206e2a87539d9529660f5eb038\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft’s forecast takes on extra importance this quarter, as analysts believe that businesses slowed down deals at the end of 2022 to cut costs and for other reasons, and Wall Street will want to know if Microsoft expects any deals that didn’t close before the end of the year will be included in the current quarter’s results. Microsoft executives told investors at the end of the last fiscal year that they expect double-digit percentage growth in revenue and operating margins, but a lot has happened since then.</p><p>Microsoft announced thousands of layoffs last week, part of a wave of job cuts from Big Tech companies that increased their workforces at a rapid pace in the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wall Street analysts believed the move signaled concerns about revenue growth.</p><p>“We expect that the head-count reduction announcement … will likely be accompanied by a lower revenue outlook for the second half of the FY, but the actions taken by the company are an illustration of how Microsoft can dynamically adjust its cost base to preserve EPS and free cash flow given the macro choppiness,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a preview of the earnings, while maintaining an outperform rating and $280 target price on the stock.</p><p>Microsoft executives hope to provide a rosier outlook with other deals. The day before its earnings report, the company officially announced a long-expected third investment in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which includes plans to incorporate the technology into services such as Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing offering and Bing search engine. Microsoft is also still in the process of acquiring videogame-publishing giant Activision Blizzard Inc. for $69 billion, though it is facing pushback from regulators worldwide.</p><p>“We are particularly keen for updates on this deal, and would pay special attention to what sorts of concessions Microsoft is prepared to make at this point, and at what point the concessions make the deal unattractive to shareholders,” Macquarie Research analysts wrote of the Activision acquisition, while maintaining a neutral rating but decreasing their price target to $232 from $234.</p><p>Microsoft reported cloud revenue of $21.5 billion, up from $18.33 billion a year ago and narrowly topping the average analyst estimate of $21.43 billion, according to FactSet. Azure grew 31%, while analysts on average were expecting 30.5% growth from the cloud-computing product; Microsoft does not provide full revenue or profit figures for Azure, even though Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. provide such results for their rival cloud products.</p><p>Microsoft’s personal-computer segment recorded $14.2 billion in revenue, down from $17.47 billion in the previous holiday season and missing the average analyst estimate of $14.76 billion. PC shipments suffered their worst decline ever recorded in the holiday season, according to third-party analyses, after a boom in PC sales during 2020 and 2021.</p><p>Microsoft’s enterprise-software business had sales of $17 billion, up from $15.94 billion a year ago and beating the FactSet analyst consensus of $16.79 billion.</p><p>Microsoft shares have declined 18.4% in the past 12 months, as the S&amp;P 500 index has dropped 8.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average — which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 2.1%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Stock Turns Negative After Forecast Misses, CFO Warns About Deceleration</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Stock Turns Negative After Forecast Misses, CFO Warns About Deceleration\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-25 07:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Microsoft suggests sales in the current quarter will come in at least $1 billion lower than Wall Street expected as December slowdown is projected to continue into new year, gains of 4% and disappear in after-hours trading</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824503f0217521fd863e450d46b66b5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Microsoft Corp. reported fiscal second-quarter earnings Tuesday. AFP/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Microsoft Corp.’s profit declined more than 12% in the holiday season, and executives said Tuesday that a revenue deceleration in December is expected to continue into the new year as the company lays off workers.</p><p>Microsoft reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $16.43 billion, or $2.20 a share, a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago. The company also reported that severance, impairment and lease-consolidation costs cost it 12 cents a share, which would lead to adjusted earnings of $2.32 a share; Microsoft executives did not provide adjusted earnings a year ago, and typically stick to GAAP profit readings.</p><p>Revenue increased to $52.75 billion from $51.7 billion in the holiday quarter of 2022. Analysts on average expected earnings of $2.29 a share on sales of $52.99 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p>For the current quarter, Microsoft executives expect revenue of $50.5 billion to $51.5 billion, according to guidance provided by Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood in a conference call Tuesday afternoon. Analysts on average were expecting fiscal third-quarter revenue of $52.42 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p>Hood said that Microsoft observed a slowdown in customer spending in December, and expects that to continue. Azure grew by 38% in constant currency, topping expectations, but Hood said that they exited December in the “mid-30s” after the deceleration, and executives expect that percentage to fall four or five points in the current quarter. Analysts were projecting Azure growth of 27.8% for the quarter, or 33.7% in constant currency, according to FactSet.</p><p>Microsoft shares gained more than 4% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, but they began to drop after the forecast and December deceleration news were shared. The stock was down 1% as of 8:00 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971139206e2a87539d9529660f5eb038\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft’s forecast takes on extra importance this quarter, as analysts believe that businesses slowed down deals at the end of 2022 to cut costs and for other reasons, and Wall Street will want to know if Microsoft expects any deals that didn’t close before the end of the year will be included in the current quarter’s results. Microsoft executives told investors at the end of the last fiscal year that they expect double-digit percentage growth in revenue and operating margins, but a lot has happened since then.</p><p>Microsoft announced thousands of layoffs last week, part of a wave of job cuts from Big Tech companies that increased their workforces at a rapid pace in the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wall Street analysts believed the move signaled concerns about revenue growth.</p><p>“We expect that the head-count reduction announcement … will likely be accompanied by a lower revenue outlook for the second half of the FY, but the actions taken by the company are an illustration of how Microsoft can dynamically adjust its cost base to preserve EPS and free cash flow given the macro choppiness,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a preview of the earnings, while maintaining an outperform rating and $280 target price on the stock.</p><p>Microsoft executives hope to provide a rosier outlook with other deals. The day before its earnings report, the company officially announced a long-expected third investment in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which includes plans to incorporate the technology into services such as Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing offering and Bing search engine. Microsoft is also still in the process of acquiring videogame-publishing giant Activision Blizzard Inc. for $69 billion, though it is facing pushback from regulators worldwide.</p><p>“We are particularly keen for updates on this deal, and would pay special attention to what sorts of concessions Microsoft is prepared to make at this point, and at what point the concessions make the deal unattractive to shareholders,” Macquarie Research analysts wrote of the Activision acquisition, while maintaining a neutral rating but decreasing their price target to $232 from $234.</p><p>Microsoft reported cloud revenue of $21.5 billion, up from $18.33 billion a year ago and narrowly topping the average analyst estimate of $21.43 billion, according to FactSet. Azure grew 31%, while analysts on average were expecting 30.5% growth from the cloud-computing product; Microsoft does not provide full revenue or profit figures for Azure, even though Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. provide such results for their rival cloud products.</p><p>Microsoft’s personal-computer segment recorded $14.2 billion in revenue, down from $17.47 billion in the previous holiday season and missing the average analyst estimate of $14.76 billion. PC shipments suffered their worst decline ever recorded in the holiday season, according to third-party analyses, after a boom in PC sales during 2020 and 2021.</p><p>Microsoft’s enterprise-software business had sales of $17 billion, up from $15.94 billion a year ago and beating the FactSet analyst consensus of $16.79 billion.</p><p>Microsoft shares have declined 18.4% in the past 12 months, as the S&amp;P 500 index has dropped 8.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average — which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 2.1%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","MSFT":"微软","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4576":"AR","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4577":"网络游戏","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2306495123","content_text":"Microsoft suggests sales in the current quarter will come in at least $1 billion lower than Wall Street expected as December slowdown is projected to continue into new year, gains of 4% and disappear in after-hours tradingMicrosoft Corp. reported fiscal second-quarter earnings Tuesday. AFP/GETTY IMAGESMicrosoft Corp.’s profit declined more than 12% in the holiday season, and executives said Tuesday that a revenue deceleration in December is expected to continue into the new year as the company lays off workers.Microsoft reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $16.43 billion, or $2.20 a share, a decline from $2.48 a share a year ago. The company also reported that severance, impairment and lease-consolidation costs cost it 12 cents a share, which would lead to adjusted earnings of $2.32 a share; Microsoft executives did not provide adjusted earnings a year ago, and typically stick to GAAP profit readings.Revenue increased to $52.75 billion from $51.7 billion in the holiday quarter of 2022. Analysts on average expected earnings of $2.29 a share on sales of $52.99 billion, according to FactSet.For the current quarter, Microsoft executives expect revenue of $50.5 billion to $51.5 billion, according to guidance provided by Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood in a conference call Tuesday afternoon. Analysts on average were expecting fiscal third-quarter revenue of $52.42 billion, according to FactSet.Hood said that Microsoft observed a slowdown in customer spending in December, and expects that to continue. Azure grew by 38% in constant currency, topping expectations, but Hood said that they exited December in the “mid-30s” after the deceleration, and executives expect that percentage to fall four or five points in the current quarter. Analysts were projecting Azure growth of 27.8% for the quarter, or 33.7% in constant currency, according to FactSet.Microsoft shares gained more than 4% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, but they began to drop after the forecast and December deceleration news were shared. The stock was down 1% as of 8:00 p.m. Eastern.Microsoft’s forecast takes on extra importance this quarter, as analysts believe that businesses slowed down deals at the end of 2022 to cut costs and for other reasons, and Wall Street will want to know if Microsoft expects any deals that didn’t close before the end of the year will be included in the current quarter’s results. Microsoft executives told investors at the end of the last fiscal year that they expect double-digit percentage growth in revenue and operating margins, but a lot has happened since then.Microsoft announced thousands of layoffs last week, part of a wave of job cuts from Big Tech companies that increased their workforces at a rapid pace in the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wall Street analysts believed the move signaled concerns about revenue growth.“We expect that the head-count reduction announcement … will likely be accompanied by a lower revenue outlook for the second half of the FY, but the actions taken by the company are an illustration of how Microsoft can dynamically adjust its cost base to preserve EPS and free cash flow given the macro choppiness,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a preview of the earnings, while maintaining an outperform rating and $280 target price on the stock.Microsoft executives hope to provide a rosier outlook with other deals. The day before its earnings report, the company officially announced a long-expected third investment in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which includes plans to incorporate the technology into services such as Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing offering and Bing search engine. Microsoft is also still in the process of acquiring videogame-publishing giant Activision Blizzard Inc. for $69 billion, though it is facing pushback from regulators worldwide.“We are particularly keen for updates on this deal, and would pay special attention to what sorts of concessions Microsoft is prepared to make at this point, and at what point the concessions make the deal unattractive to shareholders,” Macquarie Research analysts wrote of the Activision acquisition, while maintaining a neutral rating but decreasing their price target to $232 from $234.Microsoft reported cloud revenue of $21.5 billion, up from $18.33 billion a year ago and narrowly topping the average analyst estimate of $21.43 billion, according to FactSet. Azure grew 31%, while analysts on average were expecting 30.5% growth from the cloud-computing product; Microsoft does not provide full revenue or profit figures for Azure, even though Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. provide such results for their rival cloud products.Microsoft’s personal-computer segment recorded $14.2 billion in revenue, down from $17.47 billion in the previous holiday season and missing the average analyst estimate of $14.76 billion. PC shipments suffered their worst decline ever recorded in the holiday season, according to third-party analyses, after a boom in PC sales during 2020 and 2021.Microsoft’s enterprise-software business had sales of $17 billion, up from $15.94 billion a year ago and beating the FactSet analyst consensus of $16.79 billion.Microsoft shares have declined 18.4% in the past 12 months, as the S&P 500 index has dropped 8.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average — which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 2.1%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952121127,"gmtCreate":1674544612869,"gmtModify":1676538945931,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha!","listText":"Haha!","text":"Haha!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952121127","repostId":"1126742462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126742462","pubTimestamp":1674519253,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126742462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-24 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk’s Fortune Soars $11 Billion in Two Days While Testifying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126742462","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"As Elon Musk was giving his second day of testimony in San Francisco about his 2018 Tesla Inc. go-pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a4194dc9030ba7d88b0a0bebfc84cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>As Elon Musk was giving his second day of testimony in San Francisco about his 2018 Tesla Inc. go-private tweet, his wealth was increasing by the most in more than two months.</p><p>Musk’s fortune has swelled by about $10.6 billion to $145.2 billion since taking the stand on Friday, according to theBloomberg Billionaires Index, the biggest two-day gain since November. His net worth has rebounded this year along with the majority of the world’s 500 richest people as markets bounce back from a turbulent 2022.</p><p>Musk, 51, is facing a securities-fraud lawsuit stemming from his tweetin August 2018 in which he said he was “considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.” Investors are arguing that his claims about having the money to take the electric carmaker private amounted to lies that saddled them with big losses before the plan was abandoned. Musk has maintained that there’s no causal link between his tweets and the share-price move (Tesla stock rose as much as 13.3% on the day of the take-private tweet).</p><p>It’s not clear which way the federal jury trial will go. Musk told Saudi investors in 2018 that hedidn’t own enough of Tesla to take it private by himself, according to a transcript of the conversation disclosed in a proposed court filing Monday. Musk maintained that the Riyadh-based Public Investment Fund “unequivocallywanted to take Tesla private” and accused Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, of backpedaling.</p><p>Musk said he owned around 19% of Tesla at the time, and possibly 25% if he exercised some options, according to the transcript. He now owns about 13%, after sellingalmost $40 billionsince late 2021 to pay taxes and help fund his Twitter acquisition.</p><p>The billionaire also insisted that his Space Exploration Technologies Corp. shares alone would have secured the funding needed to take Tesla private. SpaceX has become an increasingly crucial part of his fortune — his 42% stake in the closely held company is worth about $49 billion, according to the Bloomberg wealth index.</p><p>Musk, who bought Twitter for $54.20 a share, was asked about the root of his $420 share price offer. He said it was “not a joke.”</p><p>But “there is some karma around 420,” he said. There’s a “question whether that is good or bad karma at this point.”</p><p>Musk last month became the first person ever to see$200 billion erasedfrom their net worth. He’s now down about $195 billion from his peak.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk’s Fortune Soars $11 Billion in Two Days While Testifying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk’s Fortune Soars $11 Billion in Two Days While Testifying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-24 08:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-23/elon-musk-fortune-soars-11-billion-in-two-days-while-testifying-on-tesla-tweet><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As Elon Musk was giving his second day of testimony in San Francisco about his 2018 Tesla Inc. go-private tweet, his wealth was increasing by the most in more than two months.Musk’s fortune has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-23/elon-musk-fortune-soars-11-billion-in-two-days-while-testifying-on-tesla-tweet\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-23/elon-musk-fortune-soars-11-billion-in-two-days-while-testifying-on-tesla-tweet","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126742462","content_text":"As Elon Musk was giving his second day of testimony in San Francisco about his 2018 Tesla Inc. go-private tweet, his wealth was increasing by the most in more than two months.Musk’s fortune has swelled by about $10.6 billion to $145.2 billion since taking the stand on Friday, according to theBloomberg Billionaires Index, the biggest two-day gain since November. His net worth has rebounded this year along with the majority of the world’s 500 richest people as markets bounce back from a turbulent 2022.Musk, 51, is facing a securities-fraud lawsuit stemming from his tweetin August 2018 in which he said he was “considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.” Investors are arguing that his claims about having the money to take the electric carmaker private amounted to lies that saddled them with big losses before the plan was abandoned. Musk has maintained that there’s no causal link between his tweets and the share-price move (Tesla stock rose as much as 13.3% on the day of the take-private tweet).It’s not clear which way the federal jury trial will go. Musk told Saudi investors in 2018 that hedidn’t own enough of Tesla to take it private by himself, according to a transcript of the conversation disclosed in a proposed court filing Monday. Musk maintained that the Riyadh-based Public Investment Fund “unequivocallywanted to take Tesla private” and accused Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, of backpedaling.Musk said he owned around 19% of Tesla at the time, and possibly 25% if he exercised some options, according to the transcript. He now owns about 13%, after sellingalmost $40 billionsince late 2021 to pay taxes and help fund his Twitter acquisition.The billionaire also insisted that his Space Exploration Technologies Corp. shares alone would have secured the funding needed to take Tesla private. SpaceX has become an increasingly crucial part of his fortune — his 42% stake in the closely held company is worth about $49 billion, according to the Bloomberg wealth index.Musk, who bought Twitter for $54.20 a share, was asked about the root of his $420 share price offer. He said it was “not a joke.”But “there is some karma around 420,” he said. There’s a “question whether that is good or bad karma at this point.”Musk last month became the first person ever to see$200 billion erasedfrom their net worth. He’s now down about $195 billion from his peak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952908272,"gmtCreate":1674308168597,"gmtModify":1676538936412,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello! Happy New Year!","listText":"Hello! Happy New Year!","text":"Hello! Happy New Year!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952908272","repostId":"1148061982","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148061982","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674272043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148061982?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-21 11:34","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Reminder: Market Holidays During Chinese Lunar New Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148061982","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><b>The China A-shares market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Friday, 27 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Hong Kong market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Wednesday, 25 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Singapore market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Tuesday, 24 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><h3>Background</h3><p>Chinese New Year is the festival that celebrates the beginning of a new year on the traditional lunisolar Chinese calendar. In Chinese, the festival is commonly referred to as the Spring Festival as the spring season in the lunisolar calendar traditionally starts with lichun, the first of the twenty-four solar terms which the festival celebrates around the time of the Chinese New Year. Marking the end of winter and the beginning of the spring season, observances traditionally take place from New Year’s Eve.</p><p>The Chinese New Year is associated with several myths and customs. The festival was traditionally a time to honor deities as well as ancestors. Within China, regional customs and traditions concerning the celebration of the New Year vary widely, and the evening preceding the New Year&#39;s Day is frequently regarded as an occasion for Chinese families to gather for the annual reunion dinner.</p><p>It is also a tradition for every family to thoroughly clean their house, in order to sweep away any ill fortune and to make way for incoming good luck. Another custom is the decoration of windows and doors with red paper-cuts and couplets. Other activities include lighting firecrackers and giving money in red paper envelopes.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Market Holidays During Chinese Lunar New Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Market Holidays During Chinese Lunar New Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-21 11:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><b>The China A-shares market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Friday, 27 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Hong Kong market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Wednesday, 25 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Singapore market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Tuesday, 24 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><h3>Background</h3><p>Chinese New Year is the festival that celebrates the beginning of a new year on the traditional lunisolar Chinese calendar. In Chinese, the festival is commonly referred to as the Spring Festival as the spring season in the lunisolar calendar traditionally starts with lichun, the first of the twenty-four solar terms which the festival celebrates around the time of the Chinese New Year. Marking the end of winter and the beginning of the spring season, observances traditionally take place from New Year’s Eve.</p><p>The Chinese New Year is associated with several myths and customs. The festival was traditionally a time to honor deities as well as ancestors. Within China, regional customs and traditions concerning the celebration of the New Year vary widely, and the evening preceding the New Year&#39;s Day is frequently regarded as an occasion for Chinese families to gather for the annual reunion dinner.</p><p>It is also a tradition for every family to thoroughly clean their house, in order to sweep away any ill fortune and to make way for incoming good luck. Another custom is the decoration of windows and doors with red paper-cuts and couplets. Other activities include lighting firecrackers and giving money in red paper envelopes.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148061982","content_text":"Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.The China A-shares market will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Friday, 27 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.The Hong Kong market will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Wednesday, 25 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.The Singapore market will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Tuesday, 24 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.BackgroundChinese New Year is the festival that celebrates the beginning of a new year on the traditional lunisolar Chinese calendar. In Chinese, the festival is commonly referred to as the Spring Festival as the spring season in the lunisolar calendar traditionally starts with lichun, the first of the twenty-four solar terms which the festival celebrates around the time of the Chinese New Year. Marking the end of winter and the beginning of the spring season, observances traditionally take place from New Year’s Eve.The Chinese New Year is associated with several myths and customs. The festival was traditionally a time to honor deities as well as ancestors. Within China, regional customs and traditions concerning the celebration of the New Year vary widely, and the evening preceding the New Year's Day is frequently regarded as an occasion for Chinese families to gather for the annual reunion dinner.It is also a tradition for every family to thoroughly clean their house, in order to sweep away any ill fortune and to make way for incoming good luck. Another custom is the decoration of windows and doors with red paper-cuts and couplets. Other activities include lighting firecrackers and giving money in red paper envelopes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951214729,"gmtCreate":1673489838961,"gmtModify":1676538845241,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951214729","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951818534,"gmtCreate":1673446469728,"gmtModify":1676538837945,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why need to be one? His&nbsp;age is catching up,sooner or later found himself dead. Just enjoy life and help people whom are not well todo, that's the remaining meaning in life at his age.. Be stress free, that way u live longer,&nbsp;healthier n happier! 😊😊😊","listText":"Why need to be one? His&nbsp;age is catching up,sooner or later found himself dead. Just enjoy life and help people whom are not well todo, that's the remaining meaning in life at his age.. Be stress free, that way u live longer,&nbsp;healthier n happier! 😊😊😊","text":"Why need to be one? His age is catching up,sooner or later found himself dead. Just enjoy life and help people whom are not well todo, that's the remaining meaning in life at his age.. Be stress free, that way u live longer, healthier n happier! 😊😊😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951818534","repostId":"1146190535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146190535","pubTimestamp":1673418696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146190535?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-11 14:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk Might Never Be the World’s Richest Person Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146190535","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Elon Musk, the “Chief Twit” and Tesla “Technoking,” might never reclaim the title of the world’s ric","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk, the “Chief Twit” and Tesla “Technoking,” might never reclaim the title of the world’s richest person. Just how far he has to fall is anyone’s guess.</p><p>It’s not just that he became the first person in history to have $200 billion erased from their personal fortune. And it’s not only about how he’s spending more time on Twitter these days, striking a conspiratorial tone about everything from politics to vaccines to the very social-media company he purchased for $44 billion in a debt-fueled buyout.</p><p>To understand the dramatic rise and precipitous fall of Musk’s net worth requires a reckoning: With the centuries-old trap of equating wealth with brilliance, and with the great monetary experiment of the pandemic era, which made a whole host of business leaders and investors look likevisionaries— if only for a moment.</p><p>But, more concretely, it begins with Musk’s pay. First came awards in 2009 and 2012 that bolstered his Tesla stake, then an unprecedented moonshot package in 2018, which, combined with his use of margin loans, laid the foundation for one of the most explosive wealth creations in history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd458c7ddd673af0d7b72713ecf10615\" tg-width=\"1369\" tg-height=\"3279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The 2018 pay plan, the largest executive compensation deal in history, drew pointed criticism from shareholder-advisory firms, but was approved by an overwhelming majority of Tesla investors. The goals seemed ambitious and a long way away. One target was for the electric-car maker to grow its market value to $650 billion — around the same level as tech giants Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. at the time.</p><p>It was, in the biggest, boldest, Muskiest way, meant to keep him focused on Tesla for the long haul.</p><p>Instead, thanks in no small part to his showmanship, the stock price soared. By the end of 2020, it earned a coveted spot in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index. He made his &#34;moonshot&#34; — 304 million Tesla options with an exercise price of $23.34 — look easy.</p><p>The award was structured to vest in 12 tranches and was dependent on the carmaker hitting various financial and market capitalization milestones. All but one of the tranches has vested — making the award a smash success, but not without flaws.</p><p>“The 2018 compensation package clearly wasn’t enough to keep Elon focused on Tesla,” said Kristin Hull, founder of Nia Impact Capital, a social-impact fund based in Oakland, California. “I’d like to get a more clear definition of his role at Tesla. What is the actual role of Tesla’s CEO? It’s too nebulous right now.”</p><p>The pay package is now part of a shareholder lawsuit in Delaware, which claims it was excessive and should be returned to Tesla because the incentives didn’t do what they were meant to.</p><p>Musk, 51, flew on a red eye — albeit by private jet — to appear on the witness stand at the mid-November trial, just weeks after closing his leveraged buyout of Twitter. The judge in the pay case, Kathaleen St. J. McCormick, also oversaw months of legal wrangling between Musk and Twitter over the deal. A subdued Musk portrayed himself as a reluctant CEO and workaholic who had no role in setting his pay.</p><p>While Judge McCormick has yet to rule on the lawsuit, the market has already reached a verdict.</p><h2>Fractured Fortune</h2><p>Tesla stock is down 39% since Dec. 1, quintupling the loss of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, as the carmaker faces heightened competition and missed expectations for deliveries even after offering discounts. Musk, who for years has used the shares as a way to raise cash for himself through margin loans, is no longer the world’s richest person, with his net worth standing at $129.4 billion, down more than $210 billion from its peak, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c9fc66deeb3ecc025f87a83301c165\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"586\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Fidelity Investments, an investor in Twitter, already values the social-media company at less than half of what Musk paid for it as advertising revenue has tumbled and borrowing costs have surged. That means Musk’s estimated 79% stake, which required him to repeatedly dump Tesla shares to help raise more than $22 billion, is now worth $11.6 billion.</p><p>Musk was given an option on Tesla stock and did everything he could to drive up its value, said Stephen Diamond, a law professor at Santa Clara University who teaches securities law and advises institutional investors on corporate governance. What directors didn’t see coming was their unpredictable CEO cashing in some $40 billion worth of shares, much of which went to overpaying for another company.</p><p>“The board has made millions, and he has made billions,” Diamond said of Musk. “But there was always a risk that he would exploit this in the short term and leave the company hanging.”</p><p>At this point, the bedrock of Musk’s fortune is his 42% ownership of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., the rocket launch company he founded in 2002, before he got involved at Tesla. The value of the closely held company continues to climb, most recently raising $750 million at a $137 billion valuation.</p><p>But, crucially, Musk likely can’t leverage SpaceX, nor his Boring Co. and Neuralink, as aggressively as he can publicly traded Tesla. His margin loans turbocharged his ascent up the wealth rankings by helping him raise cash to fund his other expensive ventures. His initial plan to buy Twitter involved using the debt too, but he restructured the financing package in May after market volatility sent Tesla shares falling.</p><h2>Margin Question</h2><p>The natural question after Tesla’s recent tumble: At what point could the Technoking be margin called?</p><p>There’s no clear answer, and any estimate relies on scenarios that are difficult to know through price swings or securities filings alone. (Musk and Jared Birchall, the managing director of his family office, didn’t respond to questions for this story.)</p><p>Tesla’s 2022 proxy filing shows Musk had about 52% of his shares pledged to secure debt as of the end of March, but it doesn’t specify how much he had actually borrowed against the pledged stock, or the terms of what could be one, two or several margin loans.</p><p>However, the margin-loan agreement that was originally part of the Twitter financing package provides some clues.</p><p>Under those terms, he could have borrowed $12.5 billion at a 20% loan-to-value ratio, with a margin call kicking in if that figure reached 35%, requiring him to either pledge more Tesla shares as collateral or reduce the size of the loan, or a combination of both.</p><p>Assuming the same parameters, and using the $359.20 stock price from March 31, Musk could have borrowed $19.2 billion against shares worth about $96 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations.</p><h2>‘Generally Wise’</h2><p>As Tesla shares extended their decline, the 35% ratio threshold would have been hit on Oct. 14, when the stock closed below $205. To return to 25%, he would have had to post Tesla shares worth $22 billion or pay down the loan by $5.5 billion.</p><p>A few weeks later, Musk offloaded shares worth $3.95 billion — even though he said in April and August that his sales were done. It’s unclear whether he needed more money for his Twitter purchase, or if margin loans played a part.</p><p>After he began those sales, Tesla declined another 19% through Dec. 12, when he started selling another $3.6 billion of shares. Days earlier he’dtweetedit was “generally wise” to avoid using margin debt on any company when there are macroeconomic risks involved.</p><p>If the roughly $7.6 billion in combined sales in November and December wasn’t enough to completely eliminate any margin debt, the math could be getting tricky.</p><p>The theoretical loan would still have $11.7 billion outstanding. Subsequent share price declines would have meant Musk would have to post more Tesla shares, if he didn’t have other sources of cash to repay the loan.</p><p>If Musk posted all his remaining Tesla shares, he’d have enough to secure the debt unless the share price fell below $79. The stock fell to as low as $101.81 earlier this month — an almost 50% decline in the span of five weeks.</p><p>After that, Musk’s options from his 2018 award might be difficult to use as collateral for a margin loan because the shares can’t be sold for five years after their exercise.</p><h2>Path Forward</h2><p>Of course, even with Tesla in sharp decline, Musk has a path to overtake France’s Bernard Arnault, now the world’s richest person, and stave off competition from Indian energy magnate Gautam Adani.</p><p>It starts with SpaceX, which is a dominant force in a still-nascent industry, much like Tesla had been in the electric vehicle arena.</p><p>Just last week, Chamath Palihapitiya, known as the “SPAC King,” predicted SpaceX’s internet-from-space initiative Starlink will go public in 2023, far sooner than planned, in part so Musk could “create breathing room for himself.” Starlink played an important role in the war in Ukraine with Russia’s military seeking to destroy communications.</p><p>Such a move would give Musk another publicly traded company to attract investors of all stripes.</p><p>Musk has said his grand plan for Twitter is to use it as a springboard for an everything app called X. Judging by his past comments, it could be akin to Chinese super-app WeChat, which is the bedrock of Tencent Holdings co-founder Pony Ma’s $40.9 billion fortune, the world’s 30th-largest.</p><p>For now, though, those ambitions look far, far away. Musk still needs to find a new CEO for Twitter — someone who, in his words, is “foolish enough to take the job!” He openly floated the idea of bankruptcy in his first address to employees after buying the company.</p><p>Meanwhile, over at Tesla, the board of directors is being pressured to prove whether they’re sufficiently prepared for the potential loss of Musk as CEO. A shareholder in Iceland submitted a resolution for investors to vote in May on whether the eight-member board should prepare and maintain a key-person risk report.</p><p>More importantly, some of Musk’s most dedicated supporters have had enough of his antics. Leo KoGuan, a billionaire entrepreneur who built one of the biggest positions in Tesla,has saidthat the “board is missing in action.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce975314903ab7a44aef274be18780\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1095\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Though the company acknowledges its key-man risk with Musk, Tesla’s growth was fueled in no small part by low interest rates and the tepidness of the world’s leading automakers to enter the era of electrification.</p><p>But the wide open playing field that Tesla enjoyed for a full decade is now crowded with legacy automakers and new entrants like Lucid and Rivian. In signs of the times, Tesla, which reports earnings on Jan. 25, has been cutting prices and offering discounts — a practice Musk has railed against — most notably in China’s increasingly competitive EV market.</p><p>“Is Elon Musk really going to allow this iconic American company to self destruct?” Diamond, the law professor, asked about Tesla. “It boggles the mind to see what he’s doing right now. With Twitter, he bit off more than he could chew. He’s now trapped himself financially.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk Might Never Be the World’s Richest Person Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk Might Never Be the World’s Richest Person Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-11 14:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-elon-musk-might-never-be-worlds-richest-person-again/?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk, the “Chief Twit” and Tesla “Technoking,” might never reclaim the title of the world’s richest person. Just how far he has to fall is anyone’s guess.It’s not just that he became the first ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-elon-musk-might-never-be-worlds-richest-person-again/?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-elon-musk-might-never-be-worlds-richest-person-again/?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146190535","content_text":"Elon Musk, the “Chief Twit” and Tesla “Technoking,” might never reclaim the title of the world’s richest person. Just how far he has to fall is anyone’s guess.It’s not just that he became the first person in history to have $200 billion erased from their personal fortune. And it’s not only about how he’s spending more time on Twitter these days, striking a conspiratorial tone about everything from politics to vaccines to the very social-media company he purchased for $44 billion in a debt-fueled buyout.To understand the dramatic rise and precipitous fall of Musk’s net worth requires a reckoning: With the centuries-old trap of equating wealth with brilliance, and with the great monetary experiment of the pandemic era, which made a whole host of business leaders and investors look likevisionaries— if only for a moment.But, more concretely, it begins with Musk’s pay. First came awards in 2009 and 2012 that bolstered his Tesla stake, then an unprecedented moonshot package in 2018, which, combined with his use of margin loans, laid the foundation for one of the most explosive wealth creations in history.The 2018 pay plan, the largest executive compensation deal in history, drew pointed criticism from shareholder-advisory firms, but was approved by an overwhelming majority of Tesla investors. The goals seemed ambitious and a long way away. One target was for the electric-car maker to grow its market value to $650 billion — around the same level as tech giants Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. at the time.It was, in the biggest, boldest, Muskiest way, meant to keep him focused on Tesla for the long haul.Instead, thanks in no small part to his showmanship, the stock price soared. By the end of 2020, it earned a coveted spot in the benchmark S&P 500 Index. He made his \"moonshot\" — 304 million Tesla options with an exercise price of $23.34 — look easy.The award was structured to vest in 12 tranches and was dependent on the carmaker hitting various financial and market capitalization milestones. All but one of the tranches has vested — making the award a smash success, but not without flaws.“The 2018 compensation package clearly wasn’t enough to keep Elon focused on Tesla,” said Kristin Hull, founder of Nia Impact Capital, a social-impact fund based in Oakland, California. “I’d like to get a more clear definition of his role at Tesla. What is the actual role of Tesla’s CEO? It’s too nebulous right now.”The pay package is now part of a shareholder lawsuit in Delaware, which claims it was excessive and should be returned to Tesla because the incentives didn’t do what they were meant to.Musk, 51, flew on a red eye — albeit by private jet — to appear on the witness stand at the mid-November trial, just weeks after closing his leveraged buyout of Twitter. The judge in the pay case, Kathaleen St. J. McCormick, also oversaw months of legal wrangling between Musk and Twitter over the deal. A subdued Musk portrayed himself as a reluctant CEO and workaholic who had no role in setting his pay.While Judge McCormick has yet to rule on the lawsuit, the market has already reached a verdict.Fractured FortuneTesla stock is down 39% since Dec. 1, quintupling the loss of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, as the carmaker faces heightened competition and missed expectations for deliveries even after offering discounts. Musk, who for years has used the shares as a way to raise cash for himself through margin loans, is no longer the world’s richest person, with his net worth standing at $129.4 billion, down more than $210 billion from its peak, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Fidelity Investments, an investor in Twitter, already values the social-media company at less than half of what Musk paid for it as advertising revenue has tumbled and borrowing costs have surged. That means Musk’s estimated 79% stake, which required him to repeatedly dump Tesla shares to help raise more than $22 billion, is now worth $11.6 billion.Musk was given an option on Tesla stock and did everything he could to drive up its value, said Stephen Diamond, a law professor at Santa Clara University who teaches securities law and advises institutional investors on corporate governance. What directors didn’t see coming was their unpredictable CEO cashing in some $40 billion worth of shares, much of which went to overpaying for another company.“The board has made millions, and he has made billions,” Diamond said of Musk. “But there was always a risk that he would exploit this in the short term and leave the company hanging.”At this point, the bedrock of Musk’s fortune is his 42% ownership of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., the rocket launch company he founded in 2002, before he got involved at Tesla. The value of the closely held company continues to climb, most recently raising $750 million at a $137 billion valuation.But, crucially, Musk likely can’t leverage SpaceX, nor his Boring Co. and Neuralink, as aggressively as he can publicly traded Tesla. His margin loans turbocharged his ascent up the wealth rankings by helping him raise cash to fund his other expensive ventures. His initial plan to buy Twitter involved using the debt too, but he restructured the financing package in May after market volatility sent Tesla shares falling.Margin QuestionThe natural question after Tesla’s recent tumble: At what point could the Technoking be margin called?There’s no clear answer, and any estimate relies on scenarios that are difficult to know through price swings or securities filings alone. (Musk and Jared Birchall, the managing director of his family office, didn’t respond to questions for this story.)Tesla’s 2022 proxy filing shows Musk had about 52% of his shares pledged to secure debt as of the end of March, but it doesn’t specify how much he had actually borrowed against the pledged stock, or the terms of what could be one, two or several margin loans.However, the margin-loan agreement that was originally part of the Twitter financing package provides some clues.Under those terms, he could have borrowed $12.5 billion at a 20% loan-to-value ratio, with a margin call kicking in if that figure reached 35%, requiring him to either pledge more Tesla shares as collateral or reduce the size of the loan, or a combination of both.Assuming the same parameters, and using the $359.20 stock price from March 31, Musk could have borrowed $19.2 billion against shares worth about $96 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations.‘Generally Wise’As Tesla shares extended their decline, the 35% ratio threshold would have been hit on Oct. 14, when the stock closed below $205. To return to 25%, he would have had to post Tesla shares worth $22 billion or pay down the loan by $5.5 billion.A few weeks later, Musk offloaded shares worth $3.95 billion — even though he said in April and August that his sales were done. It’s unclear whether he needed more money for his Twitter purchase, or if margin loans played a part.After he began those sales, Tesla declined another 19% through Dec. 12, when he started selling another $3.6 billion of shares. Days earlier he’dtweetedit was “generally wise” to avoid using margin debt on any company when there are macroeconomic risks involved.If the roughly $7.6 billion in combined sales in November and December wasn’t enough to completely eliminate any margin debt, the math could be getting tricky.The theoretical loan would still have $11.7 billion outstanding. Subsequent share price declines would have meant Musk would have to post more Tesla shares, if he didn’t have other sources of cash to repay the loan.If Musk posted all his remaining Tesla shares, he’d have enough to secure the debt unless the share price fell below $79. The stock fell to as low as $101.81 earlier this month — an almost 50% decline in the span of five weeks.After that, Musk’s options from his 2018 award might be difficult to use as collateral for a margin loan because the shares can’t be sold for five years after their exercise.Path ForwardOf course, even with Tesla in sharp decline, Musk has a path to overtake France’s Bernard Arnault, now the world’s richest person, and stave off competition from Indian energy magnate Gautam Adani.It starts with SpaceX, which is a dominant force in a still-nascent industry, much like Tesla had been in the electric vehicle arena.Just last week, Chamath Palihapitiya, known as the “SPAC King,” predicted SpaceX’s internet-from-space initiative Starlink will go public in 2023, far sooner than planned, in part so Musk could “create breathing room for himself.” Starlink played an important role in the war in Ukraine with Russia’s military seeking to destroy communications.Such a move would give Musk another publicly traded company to attract investors of all stripes.Musk has said his grand plan for Twitter is to use it as a springboard for an everything app called X. Judging by his past comments, it could be akin to Chinese super-app WeChat, which is the bedrock of Tencent Holdings co-founder Pony Ma’s $40.9 billion fortune, the world’s 30th-largest.For now, though, those ambitions look far, far away. Musk still needs to find a new CEO for Twitter — someone who, in his words, is “foolish enough to take the job!” He openly floated the idea of bankruptcy in his first address to employees after buying the company.Meanwhile, over at Tesla, the board of directors is being pressured to prove whether they’re sufficiently prepared for the potential loss of Musk as CEO. A shareholder in Iceland submitted a resolution for investors to vote in May on whether the eight-member board should prepare and maintain a key-person risk report.More importantly, some of Musk’s most dedicated supporters have had enough of his antics. Leo KoGuan, a billionaire entrepreneur who built one of the biggest positions in Tesla,has saidthat the “board is missing in action.”Though the company acknowledges its key-man risk with Musk, Tesla’s growth was fueled in no small part by low interest rates and the tepidness of the world’s leading automakers to enter the era of electrification.But the wide open playing field that Tesla enjoyed for a full decade is now crowded with legacy automakers and new entrants like Lucid and Rivian. In signs of the times, Tesla, which reports earnings on Jan. 25, has been cutting prices and offering discounts — a practice Musk has railed against — most notably in China’s increasingly competitive EV market.“Is Elon Musk really going to allow this iconic American company to self destruct?” Diamond, the law professor, asked about Tesla. “It boggles the mind to see what he’s doing right now. With Twitter, he bit off more than he could chew. He’s now trapped himself financially.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951809033,"gmtCreate":1673439414923,"gmtModify":1676538836756,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951809033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953471471,"gmtCreate":1673317067393,"gmtModify":1676538817150,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull trap?","listText":"Bull trap?","text":"Bull trap?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953471471","repostId":"2302082351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2302082351","pubTimestamp":1673314544,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2302082351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-10 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Is December CPI Optimism Setting A Sneaky Bull Trap?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2302082351","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEveryone seems to be taking a good CPI report this week as a given, but history suggests infl","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Everyone seems to be taking a good CPI report this week as a given, but history suggests inflation tends to stick around for a while!</li><li>The weakening dollar, falling yields, January pay increases, and fiscal cost-of-living adjustments will all push inflation up in the near term.</li><li>My best guess is that inflation has another 12 months before monthly price rises are fully consistent with the Fed&#39;s 2% annual core inflation target.</li><li>Even if CPI comes in soft, bears like Morgan Stanley&#39;s Michael Wilson have suggested that a weaker CPI will be accompanied by weaker earnings and weaker profit margins than expected.</li><li>December CPI will be released on Thursday, January 12th at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.</li></ul><p>Markets cheered the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with the broad S&amp;P 500 index (NYSEARCA:SPY) rising over 2% on the day, with a big follow through on Monday as of my writing this. It seems to me like another case of algorithms gone wild, as the move was preceded by a selloff the day before on the ADP payrolls number. These are small data points, but at stake are the larger questions of where the Fed is likely to take interest rates–and whether the U.S. economy will pull off a soft landing or descend into recession after the pandemic&#39;s money-printing binge. The marketis pricing in several rate cuts over the next 12-18 months, while the Fed has indicated they want to hike rates more. With the S&amp;P 500 trading on the high end of its historical range at about 17.5x 2023 consensus earnings estimates of $225, the market needs to hit a parlay here. Highly valued stocks need a Fed pivot, and they need the pivot to come without an underlying collapse in earnings (i.e. a recession). This assumption will be getting a huge test this week with December CPI, released at 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday. This data release will be key to understanding whether the current bear market in stocks will continue to grind lower or not. Markets may be overly complacent about CPI, with the optimism over CPI and the recent rally setting what could be a sneaky trap for investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97eb6054fd618e14b41ab23a3df780a0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Is Inflation Done? History Says Maybe Not</h2><p>Strategists at Bank of America (BAC) did a study in 2022 on inflationary environments in different time periods and different countries. Their question– when the rate of inflation rises above 5% annually, how long does it take for it to fall back to 2%? The Y axis here is in years, and the average is about 10 years. If you toss out countries in Southern Europe that took the longest, you&#39;re still looking at 6-12 years in many scenarios historically. The study only seems to go back to the late 1970s and early 1980s, but the post-WW2 inflationary bout didn&#39;t see US inflation return to 2% annually until 1949 (it then spiked again in the Korean War).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc7aa061961bd59cddb1425c17a84fa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>History of Inflation (BofA)</span></p><p>This round of inflation started in early 2021, and inflation first breached our 5% threshold in May 2021. If inflation is down to 2% annually in 6 months like many in the market believe, it would be the fastest disinflation in modern history. If we take a relatively benign parallel from the early 1990s inflation bout, we&#39;d still be looking at 6 years.</p><p>To be fair, explicitly targeting 2% inflation has only been done since the Clinton years in the US, after successful trials in some other countries a few years before. But what history clearly demonstrates is that inflation is an ongoing process that does not go away on its own, and that even with best practice it sticks around for years. Otherwise, there would be all kinds of examples of transitory inflation in history that went away after a couple of years, and there aren&#39;t. Stocks and bonds are priced assuming that inflation comes down quickly and monetary policy stays rather loose, so if this is not the case then the market will need to adjust prices downward.</p><h2>Why Inflation Tends To Stick Around</h2><p>There are many reasons inflation tends to stick around. Some are mechanical, and some are more behavioral.</p><p>Mechanical reasons inflation sticks around are interesting, and we&#39;re about to see some of them kicking in now. The most famous is called a &#34;wage-price spiral&#34;, where demands for COL increases are met by companies, who pass on prices to customers, which makes the cost of living collectively go up more. Social Security COLA increases are another example of this. For 2023 Social Security is increasing by 8.7%. Social Security alone is 5-6% of GDP, so this increase alone will increase the 2023 money supply by about 0.5%. Behavioral reasons are interesting as well, we&#39;ve seen them in the housing and used car markets in recent years. When buyers buy so they can get in before prices go up even more, it causes prices to rise. This is also how asset bubbles get going, and it can work in reverse as well when the bubbles pop. Generally, businesses&#39; expectations of future inflation tend to correlate with future inflation, and even things like basic contracts get rewritten to add annual price increases.</p><p>Another reason that inflation tends to stick around is that central banks previously had a poor understanding of when inflation was truly beaten– like gardeners who simply trim weeds rather than pull the roots. In the 1970s, the Fed cut rates after inflation had superficially fallen, only to see it come back stronger than ever. Jerome Powell has repeatedly referenced this to push back against market expectations of rate cuts, but the market continues to defy him. What tends to happen is that the Fed will back off, the dollar weakens, interest rates fall, and stocks go up, all of which fuel inflation. This has all happened recently, with 10-year Treasury rates about 60 bps off their highs, the dollar down about 10% off its highs, and stocks rallying off of the lows. To this point, the rally in stocks and interest rates and the selloff in the dollar is putting upward pressure on inflation, leading to the possibility that the rally will soon be reversed. The most recent Fed minutes alluded to this, but the market still is ignoring what&#39;s right in front of it and continues to fight the Fed.</p><h2>Wage Inflation Is A Symptom Of A Messed-Up Economy, Not the Cause</h2><p>The market obviously got very excited about the nonfarm payrolls number on Friday, but the reaction was way overdone. If you look at wage growth over the past few years, it was never a key driver of inflation. Over the last 12 months, real earnings for workers are down about 3%. This is instructive. Economist Milton Freidman quipped that inflation was &#34;always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,&#34; and while it&#39;s not 100% true, it&#39;s the best way of thinking about the current inflation. Big wage increases and strikes are not the main driver of inflation in and of themselves, but they&#39;re an inevitable result of pumping an excessive amount of money into the economy.</p><p>Just this morning, I woke up to an article that 7,000 New York City nurses are going on strike today. Some of this is healthcare industry-specific, but it follows strikes and contract renegotiations in places as far and wide as airlines, railroads, and dockworkers. The most recent nonfarm payrolls report shows a deceleration in wage gains, but the labor market continues to tighten, with payrolls rapidly outrunning population growth and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5%. Wolf Richter took a deep dive into the payrolls report on his blog, but I thought I would share this graph to show that the weekly earnings numbers tend to be rather volatile.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1db2031e36040f948bc0224a811e2ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Average Weekly Earnings (Wolf Street)</span></p><p>The Fed&#39;s problem here in my mind is that price increases are outrunning wages, which in turn are outrunning productivity. This is totally backwards, and it is a clear warning against the idea that we&#39;re going to have an easy soft landing for the economy. A lot of the workers entering the &#34;labor force&#34; are self-employed gig workers who were getting W-2 jobs and getting big pay increases.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33432bf602922c1b347671bc5a06b6e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Labor force participation overall is well below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d710413c74c2882a7e6faf7e246bb9c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>And why are prices increasing faster than wages? Because consumers got a ton of stimulus money in 2021, and now are spending down savings and running up debt to continue to consume.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f4c28369cdefcc93149e87d8f5a330d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Consumers have some cushion left from pandemic savings, but when it&#39;s gone, it&#39;s gone, and probably in Q2 or Q3. The savings number is even crazier than it looks because it doesn&#39;t take into account the resumption of student loans, but it does take into account the free money to millions of Americans who refinanced their mortgages to ultra-low rates.</p><p>The problem is debt, and that&#39;s how recessions always start. Middle and upper-middle-class people (and sometimes companies and governments) borrow too much money based on their expectations for the future, and when the future comes in below expectations they&#39;ve got too much debt service. Same thing here– ultra-low rates caused a boom in all kinds of borrowing– personal, corporate, and government, and a lot of that money was not invested productively but rather went into meme stocks, altcoins, single-family houses in the desert, or plain old conspicuous consumption.</p><p>The root cause of this inflation is massive government spending. The US ran deficits of 14.9% of GDP in 2020, 12.3% in 2021, and 5.5% in 2022. There are only two ways to deal with this, you either go to the private market and sell the debt at a market price, or you have your central bank print money to buy the debt, which almost always will lead to a bunch of inflation. This happens all the time in emerging markets, but the last congress in the US was the wildest spending congress in history. It never ends well. What&#39;s clear is that the new Congress is going to crack way down on spending. The optimistic way to view this is that Republicans are not going to make any more choices that lead to short-term benefits for long-term pain. The more cynical way to view it is that they have no incentive to spur the economy before the 2024 presidential election, so it&#39;s better to pull the plug now and let the inevitable recession happen on Biden&#39;s watch rather than their own.</p><h2>Where Will Stocks Go From Here?</h2><p>If the S&amp;P 500 breaks above 4,000, it&#39;ll officially be round 3 of pivot mania after the first round in July/August and the second round in October/November. Morgan Stanley&#39;s (MS) Mike Wilson has argued for the past few months that CPI will come in below expectations, but earnings and margins will be significantly worse than the market thinks, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to around 3000. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has argued that the expectations for a low-inflation economy are too optimistic. Michael Burry has argued that the US will enter recession, leading to more stimulus and another huge inflation spike. However, if you look at history, the market tends to bottom well after the Fed starts cutting rates, sometimes over a year later (this implies stocks won&#39;t bottom until 2024).</p><p>The near-term direction of stocks will be heavily influenced by the CPI report this week. There are some forces pushing inflation down, such as the popping used car bubble and the popping housing bubble. However, there are also powerful forces pushing it up, such as a weakening dollar, renewed risk appetite for stocks, and yearly cost of living boosts that come this time of year.</p><p>The Cleveland Fed&#39;s econometric model is calling for CPI of 0.1% (cheaper gas!), but a stubbornly high core CPI of 0.48%. The Fed typically pays more attention to the core. The model traditionally outperforms professional forecasters but has come in low the past couple of months, largely due to a quirk in the way CPI calculates the cost of health insurance. If the Cleveland Fed is on the money about a 0.5% month-over-month inflation report, stocks are likely to take it very harshly. Conversely, an in-line number is likely to allow stocks to continue their latest rally. However, the Fed is concerned about loosening financial conditions, so any rally in stocks may be talked back down by Fed speakers, knowing in the back of their minds that the weaker dollar and decline in rates are likely to complicate their inflation fight. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the Fed is likely to go 50 bps at their meeting at the end of the month, and if it comes in cooler, then 25 bps is more likely. The main debate at the Fed continues to be how much inflation is transitory and how much is entrenched because it affects how high interest rates will need to go. If you think half of core inflation (excluding food and energy) is transitory, the current Fed rate of 4.5% is about right under standard econometric models (the legitimate ones, not the ones politicians like to quote). This seems low though, and assuming one-third of inflation is transitory gets you a Fed funds rate of 5.5% or higher.</p><p>For an idea of how much stocks could fall, a 15x multiple is more typical for this type of high-rate environment, which would take the S&amp;P 500 to 3400 if earnings estimates hold up at $225 and to 2900 if they don&#39;t and fall to $195. For many highly valued tech stocks and the broad market, the prospect of more Fed tightening is terrible. But for US banks and brokerages like Truist (TFC), Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, things look better. If you have a higher risk appetite, Canadian banks like Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) and Bank of Montreal (BMO) have more yield but more downside exposure to a recession. Insurers are interesting as well because they benefit from higher yields on their premiums, some stocks like Prudential (PRU), Travelers (TRV), Allstate (ALL), and Tokio Marine (OTCPK:TKOMY) are the subject of some nice investor debate. For a one-fund solution for bullish investors, consider the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMDI\">iShares</a> Small Cap S&amp;P 600 Fund (IJR).</p><h2>Key Takeaways</h2><ul><li>Investors are optimistic about Thursday&#39;s CPI report, but history and econometric models continue to suggest that inflation is not yet conquered. A hot CPI report is likely to be taken very harshly by markets.</li><li>If CPI is cooling because the economy is rolling over into recession, strategists like Morgan Stanley&#39;s Mike Wilson have suggested that investors may win the battle but lose the war in 2023.</li><li>With stocks trading for over 17x earnings while cash rates are expected to top 5%, investors aren&#39;t getting very good compensation for buying stocks–they can earn 5% risk-free.</li><li>Massive deficit spending was the key driver of the pandemic boom, but the current Republican House of Representatives is already signaling that it will put some serious pressure on government spending, while the Supreme Court is likely to dismantle the student loan pause. This could lead to a recession with little to no fiscal support. In the end, it would balance the economy and pop the asset bubbles, but the American consumer&#39;s record-spending run would be dead and gone.</li><li>If you&#39;re itching to buy stocks, I believe the financial sector is the best place to be sector-wise because of low valuations and the fact that earnings from financial stocks will benefit from interest rates being higher for longer than the market expects.</li></ul><p><i>This article is written by Logan Kane for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Is December CPI Optimism Setting A Sneaky Bull Trap?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Is December CPI Optimism Setting A Sneaky Bull Trap?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-10 09:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568794-spy-is-december-cpi-optimism-setting-a-sneaky-bull-trap><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEveryone seems to be taking a good CPI report this week as a given, but history suggests inflation tends to stick around for a while!The weakening dollar, falling yields, January pay increases,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568794-spy-is-december-cpi-optimism-setting-a-sneaky-bull-trap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4107":"财产与意外伤害保险","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4162":"人寿与健康保险","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4207":"综合性银行","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568794-spy-is-december-cpi-optimism-setting-a-sneaky-bull-trap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302082351","content_text":"SummaryEveryone seems to be taking a good CPI report this week as a given, but history suggests inflation tends to stick around for a while!The weakening dollar, falling yields, January pay increases, and fiscal cost-of-living adjustments will all push inflation up in the near term.My best guess is that inflation has another 12 months before monthly price rises are fully consistent with the Fed's 2% annual core inflation target.Even if CPI comes in soft, bears like Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson have suggested that a weaker CPI will be accompanied by weaker earnings and weaker profit margins than expected.December CPI will be released on Thursday, January 12th at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.Markets cheered the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with the broad S&P 500 index (NYSEARCA:SPY) rising over 2% on the day, with a big follow through on Monday as of my writing this. It seems to me like another case of algorithms gone wild, as the move was preceded by a selloff the day before on the ADP payrolls number. These are small data points, but at stake are the larger questions of where the Fed is likely to take interest rates–and whether the U.S. economy will pull off a soft landing or descend into recession after the pandemic's money-printing binge. The marketis pricing in several rate cuts over the next 12-18 months, while the Fed has indicated they want to hike rates more. With the S&P 500 trading on the high end of its historical range at about 17.5x 2023 consensus earnings estimates of $225, the market needs to hit a parlay here. Highly valued stocks need a Fed pivot, and they need the pivot to come without an underlying collapse in earnings (i.e. a recession). This assumption will be getting a huge test this week with December CPI, released at 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday. This data release will be key to understanding whether the current bear market in stocks will continue to grind lower or not. Markets may be overly complacent about CPI, with the optimism over CPI and the recent rally setting what could be a sneaky trap for investors.Data by YChartsIs Inflation Done? History Says Maybe NotStrategists at Bank of America (BAC) did a study in 2022 on inflationary environments in different time periods and different countries. Their question– when the rate of inflation rises above 5% annually, how long does it take for it to fall back to 2%? The Y axis here is in years, and the average is about 10 years. If you toss out countries in Southern Europe that took the longest, you're still looking at 6-12 years in many scenarios historically. The study only seems to go back to the late 1970s and early 1980s, but the post-WW2 inflationary bout didn't see US inflation return to 2% annually until 1949 (it then spiked again in the Korean War).History of Inflation (BofA)This round of inflation started in early 2021, and inflation first breached our 5% threshold in May 2021. If inflation is down to 2% annually in 6 months like many in the market believe, it would be the fastest disinflation in modern history. If we take a relatively benign parallel from the early 1990s inflation bout, we'd still be looking at 6 years.To be fair, explicitly targeting 2% inflation has only been done since the Clinton years in the US, after successful trials in some other countries a few years before. But what history clearly demonstrates is that inflation is an ongoing process that does not go away on its own, and that even with best practice it sticks around for years. Otherwise, there would be all kinds of examples of transitory inflation in history that went away after a couple of years, and there aren't. Stocks and bonds are priced assuming that inflation comes down quickly and monetary policy stays rather loose, so if this is not the case then the market will need to adjust prices downward.Why Inflation Tends To Stick AroundThere are many reasons inflation tends to stick around. Some are mechanical, and some are more behavioral.Mechanical reasons inflation sticks around are interesting, and we're about to see some of them kicking in now. The most famous is called a \"wage-price spiral\", where demands for COL increases are met by companies, who pass on prices to customers, which makes the cost of living collectively go up more. Social Security COLA increases are another example of this. For 2023 Social Security is increasing by 8.7%. Social Security alone is 5-6% of GDP, so this increase alone will increase the 2023 money supply by about 0.5%. Behavioral reasons are interesting as well, we've seen them in the housing and used car markets in recent years. When buyers buy so they can get in before prices go up even more, it causes prices to rise. This is also how asset bubbles get going, and it can work in reverse as well when the bubbles pop. Generally, businesses' expectations of future inflation tend to correlate with future inflation, and even things like basic contracts get rewritten to add annual price increases.Another reason that inflation tends to stick around is that central banks previously had a poor understanding of when inflation was truly beaten– like gardeners who simply trim weeds rather than pull the roots. In the 1970s, the Fed cut rates after inflation had superficially fallen, only to see it come back stronger than ever. Jerome Powell has repeatedly referenced this to push back against market expectations of rate cuts, but the market continues to defy him. What tends to happen is that the Fed will back off, the dollar weakens, interest rates fall, and stocks go up, all of which fuel inflation. This has all happened recently, with 10-year Treasury rates about 60 bps off their highs, the dollar down about 10% off its highs, and stocks rallying off of the lows. To this point, the rally in stocks and interest rates and the selloff in the dollar is putting upward pressure on inflation, leading to the possibility that the rally will soon be reversed. The most recent Fed minutes alluded to this, but the market still is ignoring what's right in front of it and continues to fight the Fed.Wage Inflation Is A Symptom Of A Messed-Up Economy, Not the CauseThe market obviously got very excited about the nonfarm payrolls number on Friday, but the reaction was way overdone. If you look at wage growth over the past few years, it was never a key driver of inflation. Over the last 12 months, real earnings for workers are down about 3%. This is instructive. Economist Milton Freidman quipped that inflation was \"always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,\" and while it's not 100% true, it's the best way of thinking about the current inflation. Big wage increases and strikes are not the main driver of inflation in and of themselves, but they're an inevitable result of pumping an excessive amount of money into the economy.Just this morning, I woke up to an article that 7,000 New York City nurses are going on strike today. Some of this is healthcare industry-specific, but it follows strikes and contract renegotiations in places as far and wide as airlines, railroads, and dockworkers. The most recent nonfarm payrolls report shows a deceleration in wage gains, but the labor market continues to tighten, with payrolls rapidly outrunning population growth and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5%. Wolf Richter took a deep dive into the payrolls report on his blog, but I thought I would share this graph to show that the weekly earnings numbers tend to be rather volatile.Average Weekly Earnings (Wolf Street)The Fed's problem here in my mind is that price increases are outrunning wages, which in turn are outrunning productivity. This is totally backwards, and it is a clear warning against the idea that we're going to have an easy soft landing for the economy. A lot of the workers entering the \"labor force\" are self-employed gig workers who were getting W-2 jobs and getting big pay increases.Data by YChartsLabor force participation overall is well below pre-pandemic levels.Data by YChartsAnd why are prices increasing faster than wages? Because consumers got a ton of stimulus money in 2021, and now are spending down savings and running up debt to continue to consume.Data by YChartsConsumers have some cushion left from pandemic savings, but when it's gone, it's gone, and probably in Q2 or Q3. The savings number is even crazier than it looks because it doesn't take into account the resumption of student loans, but it does take into account the free money to millions of Americans who refinanced their mortgages to ultra-low rates.The problem is debt, and that's how recessions always start. Middle and upper-middle-class people (and sometimes companies and governments) borrow too much money based on their expectations for the future, and when the future comes in below expectations they've got too much debt service. Same thing here– ultra-low rates caused a boom in all kinds of borrowing– personal, corporate, and government, and a lot of that money was not invested productively but rather went into meme stocks, altcoins, single-family houses in the desert, or plain old conspicuous consumption.The root cause of this inflation is massive government spending. The US ran deficits of 14.9% of GDP in 2020, 12.3% in 2021, and 5.5% in 2022. There are only two ways to deal with this, you either go to the private market and sell the debt at a market price, or you have your central bank print money to buy the debt, which almost always will lead to a bunch of inflation. This happens all the time in emerging markets, but the last congress in the US was the wildest spending congress in history. It never ends well. What's clear is that the new Congress is going to crack way down on spending. The optimistic way to view this is that Republicans are not going to make any more choices that lead to short-term benefits for long-term pain. The more cynical way to view it is that they have no incentive to spur the economy before the 2024 presidential election, so it's better to pull the plug now and let the inevitable recession happen on Biden's watch rather than their own.Where Will Stocks Go From Here?If the S&P 500 breaks above 4,000, it'll officially be round 3 of pivot mania after the first round in July/August and the second round in October/November. Morgan Stanley's (MS) Mike Wilson has argued for the past few months that CPI will come in below expectations, but earnings and margins will be significantly worse than the market thinks, pushing the S&P 500 to around 3000. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has argued that the expectations for a low-inflation economy are too optimistic. Michael Burry has argued that the US will enter recession, leading to more stimulus and another huge inflation spike. However, if you look at history, the market tends to bottom well after the Fed starts cutting rates, sometimes over a year later (this implies stocks won't bottom until 2024).The near-term direction of stocks will be heavily influenced by the CPI report this week. There are some forces pushing inflation down, such as the popping used car bubble and the popping housing bubble. However, there are also powerful forces pushing it up, such as a weakening dollar, renewed risk appetite for stocks, and yearly cost of living boosts that come this time of year.The Cleveland Fed's econometric model is calling for CPI of 0.1% (cheaper gas!), but a stubbornly high core CPI of 0.48%. The Fed typically pays more attention to the core. The model traditionally outperforms professional forecasters but has come in low the past couple of months, largely due to a quirk in the way CPI calculates the cost of health insurance. If the Cleveland Fed is on the money about a 0.5% month-over-month inflation report, stocks are likely to take it very harshly. Conversely, an in-line number is likely to allow stocks to continue their latest rally. However, the Fed is concerned about loosening financial conditions, so any rally in stocks may be talked back down by Fed speakers, knowing in the back of their minds that the weaker dollar and decline in rates are likely to complicate their inflation fight. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the Fed is likely to go 50 bps at their meeting at the end of the month, and if it comes in cooler, then 25 bps is more likely. The main debate at the Fed continues to be how much inflation is transitory and how much is entrenched because it affects how high interest rates will need to go. If you think half of core inflation (excluding food and energy) is transitory, the current Fed rate of 4.5% is about right under standard econometric models (the legitimate ones, not the ones politicians like to quote). This seems low though, and assuming one-third of inflation is transitory gets you a Fed funds rate of 5.5% or higher.For an idea of how much stocks could fall, a 15x multiple is more typical for this type of high-rate environment, which would take the S&P 500 to 3400 if earnings estimates hold up at $225 and to 2900 if they don't and fall to $195. For many highly valued tech stocks and the broad market, the prospect of more Fed tightening is terrible. But for US banks and brokerages like Truist (TFC), Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, things look better. If you have a higher risk appetite, Canadian banks like Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) and Bank of Montreal (BMO) have more yield but more downside exposure to a recession. Insurers are interesting as well because they benefit from higher yields on their premiums, some stocks like Prudential (PRU), Travelers (TRV), Allstate (ALL), and Tokio Marine (OTCPK:TKOMY) are the subject of some nice investor debate. For a one-fund solution for bullish investors, consider the iShares Small Cap S&P 600 Fund (IJR).Key TakeawaysInvestors are optimistic about Thursday's CPI report, but history and econometric models continue to suggest that inflation is not yet conquered. A hot CPI report is likely to be taken very harshly by markets.If CPI is cooling because the economy is rolling over into recession, strategists like Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson have suggested that investors may win the battle but lose the war in 2023.With stocks trading for over 17x earnings while cash rates are expected to top 5%, investors aren't getting very good compensation for buying stocks–they can earn 5% risk-free.Massive deficit spending was the key driver of the pandemic boom, but the current Republican House of Representatives is already signaling that it will put some serious pressure on government spending, while the Supreme Court is likely to dismantle the student loan pause. This could lead to a recession with little to no fiscal support. In the end, it would balance the economy and pop the asset bubbles, but the American consumer's record-spending run would be dead and gone.If you're itching to buy stocks, I believe the financial sector is the best place to be sector-wise because of low valuations and the fact that earnings from financial stocks will benefit from interest rates being higher for longer than the market expects.This article is written by Logan Kane for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953684440,"gmtCreate":1673237231880,"gmtModify":1676538803919,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 👍🏻&nbsp;","listText":"Good 👍🏻&nbsp;","text":"Good 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953684440","repostId":"2302713787","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2302713787","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1673217587,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2302713787?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-09 06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Data, Banks Kick off Earnings Season: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2302713787","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     The holidays are over and it will be a busy week for investors: the sta","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     The holidays are over and it will be a busy week for investors: the start of fourth-quarter earnings season and the latest inflation data will be the highlights. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earning season kicks off on Friday, with results from several big banks and other notable companies. Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo will all report before the market opens, as will BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group. \n</p>\n<p>\n     On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the consumer price index for December. On average, economists are predicting no change in the index in the last month of 2022. That would mean a 6.6% year-over-year increase, after a 7.1% rise in November. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.3% in December, for a one-year gain of 5.7%. That would be down from the 6% annual rate of growth through November. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other economic-data releases on the calendar include a pair of sentiment indicators. On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index for December. On Friday, the University of Michigan will publish its Consumer Sentiment index for January. Both are expected to be up at least slightly from the prior month. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 1/9 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for November. In October, total consumer debt increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.9% to a record $4.73 trillion. Revolving credit, which is mostly credit-card debt, jumped 10.4% as more consumers tap credit to pay for living expenses. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 1/10 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 91.5 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index remains mired near eight-year lows from last summer as small-business owners continue to cite inflation as their No. 1 issue. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 1/11 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, for the week ending on Jan. 6. Mortgage activity declined sharply in the second half of last year as interest rates surged. In October, mortgage activity hit a 25-year low. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 1/12 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Jan. 7. In December, jobless claims averaged 217,500, still low historically. Despite the many announcements of layoffs in the tech and real estate sectors, the job market remains tight, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics this past week reported the unemployment rate edging down to 3.5%, near a half-century low. The U.S. economy added 4.5 million jobs last year, or about 375,000 a month on average. The second half of 2022 did see a slowing of job growth from the first half's blistering pace but nothing that portends a recession in 2023, which the majority of economists are forecasting. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the consumer price index for December. Economists forecast a 6.5% year-over-year increase, after a 7.1% jump in November. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 5.7%, slightly slower than the 6% rate of growth previously. The CPI peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022, while the core CPI hit its top at 6.6% in September. The past two CPI reports have seen a sharp deceleration in inflation, but the Federal Open Market Committee has stressed that it needs to see many months of data before even considering an end to its interest-rate hiking campaign. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 1/13 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earnings season kicks off with the four largest U.S. banks announcing quarterly results. Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all report before the market open. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, $First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$, and UnitedHealth Group release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for January. The consensus call is for a 60.5 reading, about one point more than previously. In December, consumer expectations for the year-ahead inflation hit an 18-month low of 4.4%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  January 08, 2023 18:26 ET (23:26 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Data, Banks Kick off Earnings Season: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Data, Banks Kick off Earnings Season: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-09 06:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     The holidays are over and it will be a busy week for investors: the start of fourth-quarter earnings season and the latest inflation data will be the highlights. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earning season kicks off on Friday, with results from several big banks and other notable companies. Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo will all report before the market opens, as will BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group. \n</p>\n<p>\n     On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the consumer price index for December. On average, economists are predicting no change in the index in the last month of 2022. That would mean a 6.6% year-over-year increase, after a 7.1% rise in November. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.3% in December, for a one-year gain of 5.7%. That would be down from the 6% annual rate of growth through November. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other economic-data releases on the calendar include a pair of sentiment indicators. On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index for December. On Friday, the University of Michigan will publish its Consumer Sentiment index for January. Both are expected to be up at least slightly from the prior month. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 1/9 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for November. In October, total consumer debt increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.9% to a record $4.73 trillion. Revolving credit, which is mostly credit-card debt, jumped 10.4% as more consumers tap credit to pay for living expenses. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 1/10 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 91.5 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index remains mired near eight-year lows from last summer as small-business owners continue to cite inflation as their No. 1 issue. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 1/11 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, for the week ending on Jan. 6. Mortgage activity declined sharply in the second half of last year as interest rates surged. In October, mortgage activity hit a 25-year low. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 1/12 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Jan. 7. In December, jobless claims averaged 217,500, still low historically. Despite the many announcements of layoffs in the tech and real estate sectors, the job market remains tight, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics this past week reported the unemployment rate edging down to 3.5%, near a half-century low. The U.S. economy added 4.5 million jobs last year, or about 375,000 a month on average. The second half of 2022 did see a slowing of job growth from the first half's blistering pace but nothing that portends a recession in 2023, which the majority of economists are forecasting. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the consumer price index for December. Economists forecast a 6.5% year-over-year increase, after a 7.1% jump in November. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 5.7%, slightly slower than the 6% rate of growth previously. The CPI peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022, while the core CPI hit its top at 6.6% in September. The past two CPI reports have seen a sharp deceleration in inflation, but the Federal Open Market Committee has stressed that it needs to see many months of data before even considering an end to its interest-rate hiking campaign. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 1/13 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earnings season kicks off with the four largest U.S. banks announcing quarterly results. Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all report before the market open. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, $First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$, and UnitedHealth Group release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for January. The consensus call is for a 60.5 reading, about one point more than previously. In December, consumer expectations for the year-ahead inflation hit an 18-month low of 4.4%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  January 08, 2023 18:26 ET (23:26 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4008":"航空公司","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","UNH":"联合健康","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE0002141913.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I2\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","C":"花旗","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","BK4154":"管理型保健护理","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BLK":"贝莱德","WFC":"富国银行","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","DAL":"达美航空","BAC":"美国银行","IE0009355771.USD":"骏利亨德森环球生命科技A Acc","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","IE00B2B36J28.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I1\" (USD) INC","IE00BJT1NW94.SGD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302713787","content_text":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     The holidays are over and it will be a busy week for investors: the start of fourth-quarter earnings season and the latest inflation data will be the highlights. \n\n\n     Earning season kicks off on Friday, with results from several big banks and other notable companies. Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo will all report before the market opens, as will BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group. \n\n\n     On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the consumer price index for December. On average, economists are predicting no change in the index in the last month of 2022. That would mean a 6.6% year-over-year increase, after a 7.1% rise in November. \n\n\n     The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.3% in December, for a one-year gain of 5.7%. That would be down from the 6% annual rate of growth through November. \n\n\n     Other economic-data releases on the calendar include a pair of sentiment indicators. On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index for December. On Friday, the University of Michigan will publish its Consumer Sentiment index for January. Both are expected to be up at least slightly from the prior month. \n\n\n     Monday 1/9 \n\n\n     The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for November. In October, total consumer debt increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.9% to a record $4.73 trillion. Revolving credit, which is mostly credit-card debt, jumped 10.4% as more consumers tap credit to pay for living expenses. \n\n\n     Tuesday 1/10 \n\n\n     The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 91.5 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index remains mired near eight-year lows from last summer as small-business owners continue to cite inflation as their No. 1 issue. \n\n\n     Wednesday 1/11 \n\n\n     The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, for the week ending on Jan. 6. Mortgage activity declined sharply in the second half of last year as interest rates surged. In October, mortgage activity hit a 25-year low. \n\n\n     Thursday 1/12 \n\n\n     The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Jan. 7. In December, jobless claims averaged 217,500, still low historically. Despite the many announcements of layoffs in the tech and real estate sectors, the job market remains tight, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics this past week reported the unemployment rate edging down to 3.5%, near a half-century low. The U.S. economy added 4.5 million jobs last year, or about 375,000 a month on average. The second half of 2022 did see a slowing of job growth from the first half's blistering pace but nothing that portends a recession in 2023, which the majority of economists are forecasting. \n\n\n     The BLS releases the consumer price index for December. Economists forecast a 6.5% year-over-year increase, after a 7.1% jump in November. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 5.7%, slightly slower than the 6% rate of growth previously. The CPI peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022, while the core CPI hit its top at 6.6% in September. The past two CPI reports have seen a sharp deceleration in inflation, but the Federal Open Market Committee has stressed that it needs to see many months of data before even considering an end to its interest-rate hiking campaign. \n\n\n     Friday 1/13 \n\n\n     Earnings season kicks off with the four largest U.S. banks announcing quarterly results. Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all report before the market open. \n\n\n     Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, $First Republic Bank(FRC-N)$, and UnitedHealth Group release earnings. \n\n\n     The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for January. The consensus call is for a 60.5 reading, about one point more than previously. In December, consumer expectations for the year-ahead inflation hit an 18-month low of 4.4%. \n\n\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  January 08, 2023 18:26 ET (23:26 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953318277,"gmtCreate":1673154416099,"gmtModify":1676538793195,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah!","listText":"Yeah!","text":"Yeah!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953318277","repostId":"2301475181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301475181","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1673140820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2301475181?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-08 09:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Earnings Season Will Test the Market’s Great Start","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301475181","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Investors got their Goldilocks jobs report on Friday morning, with a growing-but-slowing labor marke","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors got their Goldilocks jobs report on Friday morning, with a growing-but-slowing labor market, a tick-up in participation, and a deceleration in the pace of wage gains.</p><p>It was the kind of release that makes an oft-wished-for soft landing seem almost possible.</p><p>If job growth can continue without fueling a wage-price spiral, then perhaps it won&#39;t take a recession to break the back of inflation, especially as increases in commodities and goods prices continue to reverse. The Federal Reserve could declare victory in its inflation fight and ease off its monetary policy tightening sooner rather than later in 2023, setting off rallies across asset classes.</p><p>So goes the bullish thinking.</p><p>That narrative was on display this past Friday when stock indexes surged to end a choppy holiday-shortened week higher. The S&amp;P 500 finished the week up 1.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.98%.</p><p>If all that sounds familiar, it should. The Fed has stated that it plans to increase interest rates in early 2023, then hold there for some time. Federal-funds futures pricing, however, implies a peak in rates by the spring, then cuts in the back half of 2023. It&#39;s another sign that investors expect the Fed to change its tune. They hope Friday&#39;s jobs report sent the Fed a message -- its job is almost done.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d660bff719b54ee732ddb0da0da2f9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One data point, however, won&#39;t be enough to change the Fed&#39;s mind. The market will be looking to December&#39;s consumer price index this coming Thursday as its next macro bogey -- one that will provide additional fodder for the Fed&#39;s next policy meeting in February. The rate of inflation is expected to fall to 6.5% year over year from 7.1% in November.</p><p>But it&#39;s not just about the economic data. This coming Friday brings the start of fourth-quarter earnings season, with some major companies -- JPMorgan Chase (ticker: JPM), Bank of America (BAC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) among them -- kicking off the festivities. The vast majority of the S&amp;P 500 will report over the following month and a half.</p><p>Few are expecting a good fourth quarter. In aggregate, S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to report their first losing quarter since 2020. Earnings per share are forecast to decline by 2.2% year over year, to $53.87, after roughly 4.4% growth in the third quarter and 8.4% in the second quarter, per IBES data from Refinitiv. The consensus fourth-quarter outlook became much gloomier as 2022 proceeded -- at the start of last year, analysts had penciled in 14.1% year-over-year earnings growth for the period.</p><p>Analysts&#39; current estimate would bring 2022 S&amp;P 500 EPS to $219.80, which would be up 5.6% for the year. It&#39;s likely to end up a bit better than that, as most companies tend to beat consensus estimates. Revenue, though, is forecast to rise 4.1% year over year in the fourth quarter, to $3.7 trillion, and 11.2% for all of 2022, to $13.8 trillion. The fact that sales are rising but earnings are falling is a sign that corporate profit margins appear to have peaked for this cycle.</p><p>The earnings slump won&#39;t hit all companies equally. The energy and industrial sectors are expected to be outliers, delivering EPS growth of 65% and 43%, respectively, from a year earlier. Those are among the cyclically sensitive companies that suffered the most during the Covid-19 recession and are still enjoying the rebound.</p><p>On the opposite end of the spectrum are materials, where earnings are forecast to drop by 22% as prices of many industrial inputs have returned to earth; communication services, down 21% due to an expected drop in advertising spending and continued streaming losses at many media companies; and consumer discretionary, down 15% on potentially weaker spending in 2023. Tech, which makes up close to a quarter of the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS, is expected to show a 9% decline in earnings in the fourth quarter as wage costs balloon at many software companies, enterprise demand slows, and semiconductors remain in a downturn. Expectations are so low that the fourth-quarter results could be strong relative to forecasts.</p><p>But those beats might not matter if companies can&#39;t provide at least a decent outlook for 2023.</p><p>The bottom-up consensus -- gleaned by summing the average earnings estimates from all individual stock and sector analysts for each of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 -- is for EPS to grow by 4.4% to $229.52 in 2023, according to Refinitiv, up from about $220 in 2022. Conversely, the top-down view of Wall Street strategists surveyed by Barron&#39;s in December calls for a 2.7% decline in S&amp;P 500 profits in 2023 to an average of $214 per share.</p><p>The difference is in the profit margins. Strategists see them getting squeezed by rising wages and higher interest costs, even as the prices they charge customers moderate. That&#39;s largely in line with the Fed&#39;s view that some elements of inflation are sticky and will take time -- and economic pain -- to bring down. If that scenario plays out, the shift lower in earnings expectations would make the market appear pricier even as the Fed continues to increase interest rates.</p><p>Needless to say, that&#39;s not a winning combination for stocks -- no matter what the jobs report said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Season Will Test the Market’s Great Start</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Season Will Test the Market’s Great Start\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-08 09:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Investors got their Goldilocks jobs report on Friday morning, with a growing-but-slowing labor market, a tick-up in participation, and a deceleration in the pace of wage gains.</p><p>It was the kind of release that makes an oft-wished-for soft landing seem almost possible.</p><p>If job growth can continue without fueling a wage-price spiral, then perhaps it won&#39;t take a recession to break the back of inflation, especially as increases in commodities and goods prices continue to reverse. The Federal Reserve could declare victory in its inflation fight and ease off its monetary policy tightening sooner rather than later in 2023, setting off rallies across asset classes.</p><p>So goes the bullish thinking.</p><p>That narrative was on display this past Friday when stock indexes surged to end a choppy holiday-shortened week higher. The S&amp;P 500 finished the week up 1.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.98%.</p><p>If all that sounds familiar, it should. The Fed has stated that it plans to increase interest rates in early 2023, then hold there for some time. Federal-funds futures pricing, however, implies a peak in rates by the spring, then cuts in the back half of 2023. It&#39;s another sign that investors expect the Fed to change its tune. They hope Friday&#39;s jobs report sent the Fed a message -- its job is almost done.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d660bff719b54ee732ddb0da0da2f9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One data point, however, won&#39;t be enough to change the Fed&#39;s mind. The market will be looking to December&#39;s consumer price index this coming Thursday as its next macro bogey -- one that will provide additional fodder for the Fed&#39;s next policy meeting in February. The rate of inflation is expected to fall to 6.5% year over year from 7.1% in November.</p><p>But it&#39;s not just about the economic data. This coming Friday brings the start of fourth-quarter earnings season, with some major companies -- JPMorgan Chase (ticker: JPM), Bank of America (BAC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) among them -- kicking off the festivities. The vast majority of the S&amp;P 500 will report over the following month and a half.</p><p>Few are expecting a good fourth quarter. In aggregate, S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to report their first losing quarter since 2020. Earnings per share are forecast to decline by 2.2% year over year, to $53.87, after roughly 4.4% growth in the third quarter and 8.4% in the second quarter, per IBES data from Refinitiv. The consensus fourth-quarter outlook became much gloomier as 2022 proceeded -- at the start of last year, analysts had penciled in 14.1% year-over-year earnings growth for the period.</p><p>Analysts&#39; current estimate would bring 2022 S&amp;P 500 EPS to $219.80, which would be up 5.6% for the year. It&#39;s likely to end up a bit better than that, as most companies tend to beat consensus estimates. Revenue, though, is forecast to rise 4.1% year over year in the fourth quarter, to $3.7 trillion, and 11.2% for all of 2022, to $13.8 trillion. The fact that sales are rising but earnings are falling is a sign that corporate profit margins appear to have peaked for this cycle.</p><p>The earnings slump won&#39;t hit all companies equally. The energy and industrial sectors are expected to be outliers, delivering EPS growth of 65% and 43%, respectively, from a year earlier. Those are among the cyclically sensitive companies that suffered the most during the Covid-19 recession and are still enjoying the rebound.</p><p>On the opposite end of the spectrum are materials, where earnings are forecast to drop by 22% as prices of many industrial inputs have returned to earth; communication services, down 21% due to an expected drop in advertising spending and continued streaming losses at many media companies; and consumer discretionary, down 15% on potentially weaker spending in 2023. Tech, which makes up close to a quarter of the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS, is expected to show a 9% decline in earnings in the fourth quarter as wage costs balloon at many software companies, enterprise demand slows, and semiconductors remain in a downturn. Expectations are so low that the fourth-quarter results could be strong relative to forecasts.</p><p>But those beats might not matter if companies can&#39;t provide at least a decent outlook for 2023.</p><p>The bottom-up consensus -- gleaned by summing the average earnings estimates from all individual stock and sector analysts for each of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 -- is for EPS to grow by 4.4% to $229.52 in 2023, according to Refinitiv, up from about $220 in 2022. Conversely, the top-down view of Wall Street strategists surveyed by Barron&#39;s in December calls for a 2.7% decline in S&amp;P 500 profits in 2023 to an average of $214 per share.</p><p>The difference is in the profit margins. Strategists see them getting squeezed by rising wages and higher interest costs, even as the prices they charge customers moderate. That&#39;s largely in line with the Fed&#39;s view that some elements of inflation are sticky and will take time -- and economic pain -- to bring down. If that scenario plays out, the shift lower in earnings expectations would make the market appear pricier even as the Fed continues to increase interest rates.</p><p>Needless to say, that&#39;s not a winning combination for stocks -- no matter what the jobs report said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","DAL":"达美航空","JPM":"摩根大通","BAC":"美国银行",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2301475181","content_text":"Investors got their Goldilocks jobs report on Friday morning, with a growing-but-slowing labor market, a tick-up in participation, and a deceleration in the pace of wage gains.It was the kind of release that makes an oft-wished-for soft landing seem almost possible.If job growth can continue without fueling a wage-price spiral, then perhaps it won't take a recession to break the back of inflation, especially as increases in commodities and goods prices continue to reverse. The Federal Reserve could declare victory in its inflation fight and ease off its monetary policy tightening sooner rather than later in 2023, setting off rallies across asset classes.So goes the bullish thinking.That narrative was on display this past Friday when stock indexes surged to end a choppy holiday-shortened week higher. The S&P 500 finished the week up 1.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.98%.If all that sounds familiar, it should. The Fed has stated that it plans to increase interest rates in early 2023, then hold there for some time. Federal-funds futures pricing, however, implies a peak in rates by the spring, then cuts in the back half of 2023. It's another sign that investors expect the Fed to change its tune. They hope Friday's jobs report sent the Fed a message -- its job is almost done.One data point, however, won't be enough to change the Fed's mind. The market will be looking to December's consumer price index this coming Thursday as its next macro bogey -- one that will provide additional fodder for the Fed's next policy meeting in February. The rate of inflation is expected to fall to 6.5% year over year from 7.1% in November.But it's not just about the economic data. This coming Friday brings the start of fourth-quarter earnings season, with some major companies -- JPMorgan Chase (ticker: JPM), Bank of America (BAC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) among them -- kicking off the festivities. The vast majority of the S&P 500 will report over the following month and a half.Few are expecting a good fourth quarter. In aggregate, S&P 500 companies are expected to report their first losing quarter since 2020. Earnings per share are forecast to decline by 2.2% year over year, to $53.87, after roughly 4.4% growth in the third quarter and 8.4% in the second quarter, per IBES data from Refinitiv. The consensus fourth-quarter outlook became much gloomier as 2022 proceeded -- at the start of last year, analysts had penciled in 14.1% year-over-year earnings growth for the period.Analysts' current estimate would bring 2022 S&P 500 EPS to $219.80, which would be up 5.6% for the year. It's likely to end up a bit better than that, as most companies tend to beat consensus estimates. Revenue, though, is forecast to rise 4.1% year over year in the fourth quarter, to $3.7 trillion, and 11.2% for all of 2022, to $13.8 trillion. The fact that sales are rising but earnings are falling is a sign that corporate profit margins appear to have peaked for this cycle.The earnings slump won't hit all companies equally. The energy and industrial sectors are expected to be outliers, delivering EPS growth of 65% and 43%, respectively, from a year earlier. Those are among the cyclically sensitive companies that suffered the most during the Covid-19 recession and are still enjoying the rebound.On the opposite end of the spectrum are materials, where earnings are forecast to drop by 22% as prices of many industrial inputs have returned to earth; communication services, down 21% due to an expected drop in advertising spending and continued streaming losses at many media companies; and consumer discretionary, down 15% on potentially weaker spending in 2023. Tech, which makes up close to a quarter of the S&P 500's EPS, is expected to show a 9% decline in earnings in the fourth quarter as wage costs balloon at many software companies, enterprise demand slows, and semiconductors remain in a downturn. Expectations are so low that the fourth-quarter results could be strong relative to forecasts.But those beats might not matter if companies can't provide at least a decent outlook for 2023.The bottom-up consensus -- gleaned by summing the average earnings estimates from all individual stock and sector analysts for each of the companies in the S&P 500 -- is for EPS to grow by 4.4% to $229.52 in 2023, according to Refinitiv, up from about $220 in 2022. Conversely, the top-down view of Wall Street strategists surveyed by Barron's in December calls for a 2.7% decline in S&P 500 profits in 2023 to an average of $214 per share.The difference is in the profit margins. Strategists see them getting squeezed by rising wages and higher interest costs, even as the prices they charge customers moderate. That's largely in line with the Fed's view that some elements of inflation are sticky and will take time -- and economic pain -- to bring down. If that scenario plays out, the shift lower in earnings expectations would make the market appear pricier even as the Fed continues to increase interest rates.Needless to say, that's not a winning combination for stocks -- no matter what the jobs report said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927457841,"gmtCreate":1672573775883,"gmtModify":1676538706440,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 👍🏻&nbsp;","listText":"Good 👍🏻&nbsp;","text":"Good 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927457841","repostId":"1124790458","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124790458","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672451544,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124790458?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-31 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street’s Forecasts for Stock Markets in 2023: U.S. May Enter a Mild Recession, S&P 500 Is Expected to Have a U-Turn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124790458","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.22% to 33,147.25 on Friday, sliding 8.78% in 2022; the S&P 5","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.22% to 33,147.25 on Friday, sliding 8.78% in 2022; the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.25% at 3,839.50, crashing 19.44% in 2022; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.11% to 10,466.48, tumbling 33.1% in 2022.</p><p>After experiencing the nightmare in 2022, the focus has shifted to the 2023 corporate earnings outlook, with growing concerns about the likelihood of a recession. Citi and Wells Fargo predict U.S. economy may enter a mild recession, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and BofA believe S&amp;P 500 may have a U-turn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454ca17f041d951865e2a90001e29ccb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"3096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Goldman Sachs Expects S&amp;P 500 to End 2023 Around 4,000</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs (GS) recently joined a slew of global investment bankers while unveiling the 2023 forecasts.</p><p>In its latest analysis, the GS expects S&amp;P 500 Future to average around 4,000 in 2023.</p><p>The US bank also states that S&amp;P 500 EPS is still $224 in 2023 while stating, “The firm remains underweight the S&amp;P 500 Industrials Sector despite its 19% rally since the start of the fourth quarter.”</p><p><b>JP Morgan Believes S&amp;P 500 Will Reach 4,200 By Year-End in 2023</b></p><p>JP Morgan expects the global economy is projected to expand at a sluggish pace of around 1.6% in 2023 as financial conditions tighten, the winter aggravates China’s COVID policy and Europe’s natural gas problems persist, and it is not at imminent risk of sliding into recession, as the sharp decline in inflation helps promote growth, but a U.S. recession is likely before the end of 2024.</p><p>For U.S. stocks, the company thinks that in the first half of 2023, the S&amp;P 500 is expected to re-test the lows of 2022, but a pivot from the Fed could drive an asset recovery later in the year, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to 4,200 by year-end.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley Predicts S&amp;P May Slid to 3,000 Before Ending the Year at 3,900</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley expects that in the coming year, markets will continue to be driven by macro themes.</p><p>In 2023, it anticipates a transition from an environment with generally rising policy rates to one in which inflationary pressure recedes, rate increases end and global growth slows, with GDP growth in developed markets bottoming at 0.2% (annualized) in the third quarter of 2023.</p><p>Consequently, it expects rates curves to steepen, driving returns for bonds and other fixed income investments, and U.S. equity markets to sell off in the first quarter, reaching levels as low as 3,000 to 3,300 for the S&amp;P 500 before ending the year about flat at 3,900.</p><p><b>Bank of America Sees Stocks Going Nowhere in 2023</b></p><p>BofA set a 2023 year-end price target of 4,000 on S&amp;P 500, as annual earnings per share for the S&amp;P 500 are seen to $200.</p><p>While BofA is bearish near term, the bank remains bullish over the long haul and sees the S&amp;P 500 returning 8% annually over the next decade. The firm is advising investors to focus on the marathon and not the sprint.</p><p>The bank placed the odds of generating a positive return on the index if an investor holds it for a day at “just more than a coin flip,” or 54%, while owning the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years puts the chances of making money at 94%.</p><p><b>Wells Fargo 2023 Outlook: A Year of Recession, Recovery, and Rebound</b></p><p>Wells Fargo thinks a recession and unwinding of inflationary shocks of the past 18 months could allow inflation to decline to under 3% on a year-over-year basis by year-end 2023.</p><p>A moderate recession in the first half of 2023 may lead to a contraction for the year as a whole, marked by -1.3% U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth.</p><p>Once investors begin to anticipate economic and earnings recovery, the S&amp;P 500 Index is forecasted to gain into year-end. S&amp;P 500 Index target range is 4,300 – 4,500 for year-end 2023.</p><p>Federal funds rate forecast of 3.50% – 3.75% anticipates multiple policy interest-rate reductions after rates reach a peak above 4.50% early in 2023.</p><p><b>Citi Expects S&amp;P 500 to End 2023 at 3,900 Points and Its EPS Will Be $215</b></p><p>Its view is that multiples tend to expand coming out of recessions as EPS in the denominator continues to fall while the market begins pricing in recovery on the other side.</p><p>Part of this multiple expansion, however, has a rates connection. The monetary policy impulse to lower rates lifts multiples as the economy works its way out of the depths of recession.</p><p>It believes the eurozone and U.K. will enter a recession by the end of 2022. The U.S. stands to enter a recession by mid-2023.</p><p><b>HSBC Expects S&amp;P 500 to End 2023 At</b> <b>4,000 Points and Its EPS Will Be $225</b></p><p>The company believes that valuation headwinds will persist well into 2023, and most downside in the coming months will come from slowing profitability.</p><p><b>Deutsche Bank Thinks That Equity Bear Market Rally Will Stretch Into 2023, Dollar Weaker</b></p><p>It sees the S&amp;P 500 at 4,500 in the first half, down more than 25% in Q3, and back to 4,500 by year-end 2023.</p><p>In its 2023 outlook, Deutsche said a recession was likely to take hold from mid-year and would also be felt in credit markets where U.S. high yield spreads should widen to 860 basis points by end-2023, and euro-denominated high yield spreads should reach 930 bps.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street’s Forecasts for Stock Markets in 2023: U.S. May Enter a Mild Recession, S&P 500 Is Expected to Have a U-Turn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street’s Forecasts for Stock Markets in 2023: U.S. May Enter a Mild Recession, S&P 500 Is Expected to Have a U-Turn\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-31 09:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.22% to 33,147.25 on Friday, sliding 8.78% in 2022; the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.25% at 3,839.50, crashing 19.44% in 2022; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.11% to 10,466.48, tumbling 33.1% in 2022.</p><p>After experiencing the nightmare in 2022, the focus has shifted to the 2023 corporate earnings outlook, with growing concerns about the likelihood of a recession. Citi and Wells Fargo predict U.S. economy may enter a mild recession, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and BofA believe S&amp;P 500 may have a U-turn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454ca17f041d951865e2a90001e29ccb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"3096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Goldman Sachs Expects S&amp;P 500 to End 2023 Around 4,000</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs (GS) recently joined a slew of global investment bankers while unveiling the 2023 forecasts.</p><p>In its latest analysis, the GS expects S&amp;P 500 Future to average around 4,000 in 2023.</p><p>The US bank also states that S&amp;P 500 EPS is still $224 in 2023 while stating, “The firm remains underweight the S&amp;P 500 Industrials Sector despite its 19% rally since the start of the fourth quarter.”</p><p><b>JP Morgan Believes S&amp;P 500 Will Reach 4,200 By Year-End in 2023</b></p><p>JP Morgan expects the global economy is projected to expand at a sluggish pace of around 1.6% in 2023 as financial conditions tighten, the winter aggravates China’s COVID policy and Europe’s natural gas problems persist, and it is not at imminent risk of sliding into recession, as the sharp decline in inflation helps promote growth, but a U.S. recession is likely before the end of 2024.</p><p>For U.S. stocks, the company thinks that in the first half of 2023, the S&amp;P 500 is expected to re-test the lows of 2022, but a pivot from the Fed could drive an asset recovery later in the year, pushing the S&amp;P 500 to 4,200 by year-end.</p><p><b>Morgan Stanley Predicts S&amp;P May Slid to 3,000 Before Ending the Year at 3,900</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley expects that in the coming year, markets will continue to be driven by macro themes.</p><p>In 2023, it anticipates a transition from an environment with generally rising policy rates to one in which inflationary pressure recedes, rate increases end and global growth slows, with GDP growth in developed markets bottoming at 0.2% (annualized) in the third quarter of 2023.</p><p>Consequently, it expects rates curves to steepen, driving returns for bonds and other fixed income investments, and U.S. equity markets to sell off in the first quarter, reaching levels as low as 3,000 to 3,300 for the S&amp;P 500 before ending the year about flat at 3,900.</p><p><b>Bank of America Sees Stocks Going Nowhere in 2023</b></p><p>BofA set a 2023 year-end price target of 4,000 on S&amp;P 500, as annual earnings per share for the S&amp;P 500 are seen to $200.</p><p>While BofA is bearish near term, the bank remains bullish over the long haul and sees the S&amp;P 500 returning 8% annually over the next decade. The firm is advising investors to focus on the marathon and not the sprint.</p><p>The bank placed the odds of generating a positive return on the index if an investor holds it for a day at “just more than a coin flip,” or 54%, while owning the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years puts the chances of making money at 94%.</p><p><b>Wells Fargo 2023 Outlook: A Year of Recession, Recovery, and Rebound</b></p><p>Wells Fargo thinks a recession and unwinding of inflationary shocks of the past 18 months could allow inflation to decline to under 3% on a year-over-year basis by year-end 2023.</p><p>A moderate recession in the first half of 2023 may lead to a contraction for the year as a whole, marked by -1.3% U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth.</p><p>Once investors begin to anticipate economic and earnings recovery, the S&amp;P 500 Index is forecasted to gain into year-end. S&amp;P 500 Index target range is 4,300 – 4,500 for year-end 2023.</p><p>Federal funds rate forecast of 3.50% – 3.75% anticipates multiple policy interest-rate reductions after rates reach a peak above 4.50% early in 2023.</p><p><b>Citi Expects S&amp;P 500 to End 2023 at 3,900 Points and Its EPS Will Be $215</b></p><p>Its view is that multiples tend to expand coming out of recessions as EPS in the denominator continues to fall while the market begins pricing in recovery on the other side.</p><p>Part of this multiple expansion, however, has a rates connection. The monetary policy impulse to lower rates lifts multiples as the economy works its way out of the depths of recession.</p><p>It believes the eurozone and U.K. will enter a recession by the end of 2022. The U.S. stands to enter a recession by mid-2023.</p><p><b>HSBC Expects S&amp;P 500 to End 2023 At</b> <b>4,000 Points and Its EPS Will Be $225</b></p><p>The company believes that valuation headwinds will persist well into 2023, and most downside in the coming months will come from slowing profitability.</p><p><b>Deutsche Bank Thinks That Equity Bear Market Rally Will Stretch Into 2023, Dollar Weaker</b></p><p>It sees the S&amp;P 500 at 4,500 in the first half, down more than 25% in Q3, and back to 4,500 by year-end 2023.</p><p>In its 2023 outlook, Deutsche said a recession was likely to take hold from mid-year and would also be felt in credit markets where U.S. high yield spreads should widen to 860 basis points by end-2023, and euro-denominated high yield spreads should reach 930 bps.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DB":"德意志银行","WFC":"富国银行","C":"花旗","GS":"高盛","HSBC":"汇丰","MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通","BAC":"美国银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124790458","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.22% to 33,147.25 on Friday, sliding 8.78% in 2022; the S&P 500 lost 0.25% at 3,839.50, crashing 19.44% in 2022; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.11% to 10,466.48, tumbling 33.1% in 2022.After experiencing the nightmare in 2022, the focus has shifted to the 2023 corporate earnings outlook, with growing concerns about the likelihood of a recession. Citi and Wells Fargo predict U.S. economy may enter a mild recession, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and BofA believe S&P 500 may have a U-turn.Goldman Sachs Expects S&P 500 to End 2023 Around 4,000Goldman Sachs (GS) recently joined a slew of global investment bankers while unveiling the 2023 forecasts.In its latest analysis, the GS expects S&P 500 Future to average around 4,000 in 2023.The US bank also states that S&P 500 EPS is still $224 in 2023 while stating, “The firm remains underweight the S&P 500 Industrials Sector despite its 19% rally since the start of the fourth quarter.”JP Morgan Believes S&P 500 Will Reach 4,200 By Year-End in 2023JP Morgan expects the global economy is projected to expand at a sluggish pace of around 1.6% in 2023 as financial conditions tighten, the winter aggravates China’s COVID policy and Europe’s natural gas problems persist, and it is not at imminent risk of sliding into recession, as the sharp decline in inflation helps promote growth, but a U.S. recession is likely before the end of 2024.For U.S. stocks, the company thinks that in the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 is expected to re-test the lows of 2022, but a pivot from the Fed could drive an asset recovery later in the year, pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end.Morgan Stanley Predicts S&P May Slid to 3,000 Before Ending the Year at 3,900Morgan Stanley expects that in the coming year, markets will continue to be driven by macro themes.In 2023, it anticipates a transition from an environment with generally rising policy rates to one in which inflationary pressure recedes, rate increases end and global growth slows, with GDP growth in developed markets bottoming at 0.2% (annualized) in the third quarter of 2023.Consequently, it expects rates curves to steepen, driving returns for bonds and other fixed income investments, and U.S. equity markets to sell off in the first quarter, reaching levels as low as 3,000 to 3,300 for the S&P 500 before ending the year about flat at 3,900.Bank of America Sees Stocks Going Nowhere in 2023BofA set a 2023 year-end price target of 4,000 on S&P 500, as annual earnings per share for the S&P 500 are seen to $200.While BofA is bearish near term, the bank remains bullish over the long haul and sees the S&P 500 returning 8% annually over the next decade. The firm is advising investors to focus on the marathon and not the sprint.The bank placed the odds of generating a positive return on the index if an investor holds it for a day at “just more than a coin flip,” or 54%, while owning the S&P 500 over the next 10 years puts the chances of making money at 94%.Wells Fargo 2023 Outlook: A Year of Recession, Recovery, and ReboundWells Fargo thinks a recession and unwinding of inflationary shocks of the past 18 months could allow inflation to decline to under 3% on a year-over-year basis by year-end 2023.A moderate recession in the first half of 2023 may lead to a contraction for the year as a whole, marked by -1.3% U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth.Once investors begin to anticipate economic and earnings recovery, the S&P 500 Index is forecasted to gain into year-end. S&P 500 Index target range is 4,300 – 4,500 for year-end 2023.Federal funds rate forecast of 3.50% – 3.75% anticipates multiple policy interest-rate reductions after rates reach a peak above 4.50% early in 2023.Citi Expects S&P 500 to End 2023 at 3,900 Points and Its EPS Will Be $215Its view is that multiples tend to expand coming out of recessions as EPS in the denominator continues to fall while the market begins pricing in recovery on the other side.Part of this multiple expansion, however, has a rates connection. The monetary policy impulse to lower rates lifts multiples as the economy works its way out of the depths of recession.It believes the eurozone and U.K. will enter a recession by the end of 2022. The U.S. stands to enter a recession by mid-2023.HSBC Expects S&P 500 to End 2023 At 4,000 Points and Its EPS Will Be $225The company believes that valuation headwinds will persist well into 2023, and most downside in the coming months will come from slowing profitability.Deutsche Bank Thinks That Equity Bear Market Rally Will Stretch Into 2023, Dollar WeakerIt sees the S&P 500 at 4,500 in the first half, down more than 25% in Q3, and back to 4,500 by year-end 2023.In its 2023 outlook, Deutsche said a recession was likely to take hold from mid-year and would also be felt in credit markets where U.S. high yield spreads should widen to 860 basis points by end-2023, and euro-denominated high yield spreads should reach 930 bps.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9043855961,"gmtCreate":1655908508953,"gmtModify":1676535730009,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Power tonight! Beware shorties, it will be same as what u see yesterday! 😂😂😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Power tonight! Beware shorties, it will be same as what u see yesterday! 😂😂😂","text":"$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$Power tonight! Beware shorties, it will be same as what u see yesterday! 😂😂😂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2aa3433b3199faf4d06f32a8e37f2ef5","width":"1125","height":"3714"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":52,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043855961","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087619900366220","authorId":"4087619900366220","name":"oliana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c145e3dccc975a6569afcf9567171ef4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Can go higher","text":"Can go higher","html":"Can go higher"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145498489,"gmtCreate":1626234961041,"gmtModify":1703756074315,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I think i am oneof the highest holding&nbsp;price here.Hmmm, since i’ve lost more than 35%, i’d rager hold than to cut lost. At most lose $5,000 if the price went down to $8.&nbsp;**This is a war between&nbsp;retail investors Vs HF, will fight this war by holding the shares!**","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I think i am oneof the highest holding&nbsp;price here.Hmmm, since i’ve lost more than 35%, i’d rager hold than to cut lost. At most lose $5,000 if the price went down to $8.&nbsp;**This is a war between&nbsp;retail investors Vs HF, will fight this war by holding the shares!**","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$I think i am oneof the highest holding price here.Hmmm, since i’ve lost more than 35%, i’d rager hold than to cut lost. At most lose $5,000 if the price went down to $8. **This is a war between retail investors Vs HF, will fight this war by holding the shares!**","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b7828eee64a96d727d297eacfa69dd0","width":"1125","height":"1835"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145498489","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485338771748296","authorId":"3485338771748296","name":"圣地麦加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fed6d6407affa945a1b6bdcaf275c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"I'm here, too. If I don't blog once, I'm afraid I'll regret it all my life. [Laughs and cries]","text":"I'm here, too. If I don't blog once, I'm afraid I'll regret it all my life. [Laughs and cries]","html":"I'm here, too. If I don't blog once, I'm afraid I'll regret it all my life. [Laughs and cries]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032643378,"gmtCreate":1647362792842,"gmtModify":1676534220880,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bear market now, control \"buying the dip\" for now, wait and see what happen tmr after FEB announced interest rate. Hope this bear market doesn't last that long, FML<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>","listText":"Bear market now, control \"buying the dip\" for now, wait and see what happen tmr after FEB announced interest rate. Hope this bear market doesn't last that long, FML<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>","text":"Bear market now, control \"buying the dip\" for now, wait and see what happen tmr after FEB announced interest rate. Hope this bear market doesn't last that long, FML$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032643378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000652","authorId":"9000000000000652","name":"ChristKitto","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Though us longs have been complete ravaged the past 120 days, the daily chart is looking optimistic to me. We have a solid double bottom and bullish divergence.","text":"Though us longs have been complete ravaged the past 120 days, the daily chart is looking optimistic to me. We have a solid double bottom and bullish divergence.","html":"Though us longs have been complete ravaged the past 120 days, the daily chart is looking optimistic to me. We have a solid double bottom and bullish divergence."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836835154,"gmtCreate":1629468994178,"gmtModify":1676530051634,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Should i sell now andwait till it drop back to $12?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Should i sell now andwait till it drop back to $12?","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Should i sell now andwait till it drop back to $12?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df83f3d8e5171a43b6dc8c284de7fda","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836835154","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579787416317079","authorId":"3579787416317079","name":"MrRocket","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f4d226597d833cb0cccb08be94c374","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Wait till 16-18 at least. tiger getting thier hk license soon and Next week esrning report","text":"Wait till 16-18 at least. tiger getting thier hk license soon and Next week esrning report","html":"Wait till 16-18 at least. tiger getting thier hk license soon and Next week esrning report"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159540634,"gmtCreate":1624975320328,"gmtModify":1703849240486,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>support a little","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>support a little","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$support a little","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e4c7184cb7e09a203643cbf25bd87e","width":"1125","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":30,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159540634","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029946039,"gmtCreate":1652728441622,"gmtModify":1676535148324,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>I feel tomorrow will be a bloody day for this stock, i'm thinking whether to sell or not. Any advise?!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>I feel tomorrow will be a bloody day for this stock, i'm thinking whether to sell or not. Any advise?!","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$I feel tomorrow will be a bloody day for this stock, i'm thinking whether to sell or not. Any advise?!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55e824155f4a75301af542c8f986cf5e","width":"1125","height":"3804"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029946039","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107745467004470","authorId":"4107745467004470","name":"Paximus","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/63026d0c0be604fb78a73b1212c63eff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"I cannot advise you, but to say I'm holding my stock","text":"I cannot advise you, but to say I'm holding my stock","html":"I cannot advise you, but to say I'm holding my stock"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156858424,"gmtCreate":1625213494168,"gmtModify":1703738474817,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>Hold or take profit?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>Hold or take profit?","text":"$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$Hold or take profit?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c226451c74ed3df0499c73f0bac76cf","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156858424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548245253676986","authorId":"3548245253676986","name":"iSnowBall","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74f5038d35ff85ecf2980e82c07e02a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"You can set a price and sell it automatically if it falls below it. It is most important to protect the principal.","text":"You can set a price and sell it automatically if it falls below it. It is most important to protect the principal.","html":"You can set a price and sell it automatically if it falls below it. It is most important to protect the principal."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836742556,"gmtCreate":1629530122975,"gmtModify":1676530066769,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Should have sold @ 14.xx and buy back again at lower price.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Should have sold @ 14.xx and buy back again at lower price.","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Should have sold @ 14.xx and buy back again at lower price.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e37a47cc73f9bb8f7c6d25949aaeb58","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836742556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493842670456657","authorId":"3493842670456657","name":"madhatter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0608ff027983d65930949408359fec","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Too short time for buy and sell circle","text":"Too short time for buy and sell circle","html":"Too short time for buy and sell circle"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881287460,"gmtCreate":1631345040950,"gmtModify":1676530533474,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>OMG Are you going down next Monday?!?! ???????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>OMG Are you going down next Monday?!?! ???????","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$OMG Are you going down next Monday?!?! ???????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bcd171351b121a03903f4d360703c05","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881287460","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554942019309693","authorId":"3554942019309693","name":"HappyJianHui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51013806ff7cdc8905799911fd0256e0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Definitely going up don't miss out","text":"Definitely going up don't miss out","html":"Definitely going up don't miss out"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889794714,"gmtCreate":1631176721838,"gmtModify":1676530487881,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$</a>Hold till next week, i feel tomorrow will sell on news ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$</a>Hold till next week, i feel tomorrow will sell on news ?","text":"$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$Hold till next week, i feel tomorrow will sell on news ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e1fa6495455117adb756a2484919da4","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889794714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576159031156193","authorId":"3576159031156193","name":"4ZOEYS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485a6405c364ce85c22e81b2913d390f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"$2.55 still $2.55, tomorrow still $2.55 ???","text":"$2.55 still $2.55, tomorrow still $2.55 ???","html":"$2.55 still $2.55, tomorrow still $2.55 ???"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834676807,"gmtCreate":1629802602909,"gmtModify":1676530135614,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Sell?????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Sell?????","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Sell?????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18022895af25041aed09d8e87952e1ec","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834676807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576159031156193","authorId":"3576159031156193","name":"4ZOEYS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485a6405c364ce85c22e81b2913d390f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"No $24 No Sell. ???","text":"No $24 No Sell. ???","html":"No $24 No Sell. ???"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961852281,"gmtCreate":1668915512443,"gmtModify":1676538128022,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please 🍇","listText":"Like please 🍇","text":"Like please 🍇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961852281","repostId":"2284785084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284785084","pubTimestamp":1668905591,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2284785084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-20 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Vs. Meta Platforms: Which Stock Is The Better Investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284785084","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Alphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk profiles, while also offering massive opportunities to investors.</li><li>GOOG reported a superior performance over the past years, while both stocks may offer great opportunities for investors, the ability to achieve the targets and the optionality will be determinant.</li><li>Both companies share the same Achilles heel, in an industry that is forecasted to grow substantially over the next decade, while it also exposes their revenue stream to demand-driven fluctuations.</li><li>This article focuses on long-term investment opportunities based on in-depth fundamental analysis and I offer two valuation models structured around multiple outcome scenarios.</li></ul><p>The technology sector is among the worst performers in the past year, losing over 30% of its value. While many stocks may have been excessively hyped during the massive rebound out of the pandemic-lows, others have been under pressure because of rising inflation, a higher cost of capital, bottlenecks among the supply chains, as well as headwinds caused by pandemic-related restrictions, geo-political tensions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Companies in the Information technology services industry could perform better from a yearly perspective but lately have been struggling to rebound, while others, such as the semiconductor and the solar industries, have recently been leading the sector.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24926893763e4d5e2c2059c3a396961e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>finviz</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f119d5f53fe3121bf55f9c893934749\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>finviz</p><p>The two selected companies are two global giants in their industry, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) having nearly a monopoly in the online search field, as Google processes over 92% of online search volume worldwide, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:META) counting 3.71B monthly users in Q3 2022, among the company’s core products, Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, or Messenger, up 4% Year-over-Year [YoY].</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ecae9b7a6150d62e4e702446ea1b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using TIKR</p><p>While the two companies once were identified as a digital duopoly, because of their massive market share in global online advertising, more recently, companies such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Tencent (OTCX:OTCPK:TCEHY), or ByteDance through their social media TikTok, have penetrated the market and contributed to the erosion of this duopoly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba8cba90ad500702aed27aa4769d952\" tg-width=\"398\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from Insider Intelligence, Research and Markets, Company filings</p><p>The global IT Services market is projected to grow at a 9.5% Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR] through 2031, while the global digital advertising market is forecasted to grow even faster at a 13.9% CAGR, reaching a size of $1.79T through 2031. The sustained market growth is driven by the broader penetration of internet users, technological advancement, rising spending in digital advertising, and the expanding popularity of mobile phones and digital media across the world, while platforms such as in-app, mobile ads, connected TV or social media advertising are increasingly important vectors in the industry.</p><h2><b>An in-depth company comparison</b></h2><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b292a512ca86202c0549254543bfb5\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>The financial comparison highlights the major relative strengths and weaknesses of the two giants. In terms of their Return on Invested Capital [ROIC], a very important metric I consider when pondering an investment decision, as a company must be able to consistently create value to be a sustainable investment, Alphabet seems to gradually increase its capital allocation efficiency over the past few years. Although Meta has been more efficient in the past, the metric has progressively dropped, until recently significantly falling under Alphabet’s level. The latter seems to have a more efficient core business, but Meta has seemingly more efficient cash management, observed in the relatively narrow spread between their ROIC and the Return on Capital Employed [ROCE], while Alphabet could significantly increase its capital allocation efficiency as the company reported a massive cash position of over $116B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa03acf041d1be505b4a32558b182c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Although Meta reports by far the higher gross margin, this metric’s growth is seemingly dropping from 21.94% CAGR in the past 5 years to 17.88% CAGR in the past 3 years. While Alphabet reported a lower actual value, the company saw this metric slightly increase from 19.38% CAGR to 20.72% CAGR, over the same time window. Meta’s main source of revenue began faltering as the widely popular video app TikTok massively increased its audience, and other companies increased their market share in the online advertising space, while Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shift to a strict app tracking transparency privacy policy, requiring the user’s approval for apps to be able to track their data, had an estimated two-digit billion impact on Meta’s revenue. On the operational side, the companies have an even more divergent profile, as Alphabet demonstrated being capable of significantly increasing its operational profitability from 22.13% CAGR in the past 5 years, to 29.80% CAGR over the past 3 years, while Meta’s operating margin growth is decelerating from 11.96% CAGR to 7.03% CAGR over the same period. Meta is massively investing in the development of the Metaverse while rising doubts emerge concerning the company’s ability to reach its ambitious goals in a concept that only a few people understand, while at the same time the company struggles with a weakening advertising business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1f88c88d16069afac3b3d995567a30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Meta reportedly has a more cash-rich business than the analyzed peer, while none of them is paying a dividend, both companies spend billions in share-repurchase programs. Alphabet announced its biggest share-buyback program of over $70B earlier this year, a major increase after the authorized buyback of $50B in 2021 and $25B in 2019. Meta has reportedly spent $91B to repurchase 377M stocks at an average price of $242, between 2017 and September 2022, a price that seems steep, considering that the actual share price is valued at -53% of that price. Meta also reports significantly higher EPS, while in those terms, Alphabet has had a less negative development over the most recent quarters and reported significantly higher growth over the past few years. Both companies are relying on debt for sustaining their business, increasing significantly their debt reliance since 2019, as the historically low-interest rates pushed many companies to consider more debt in their financing strategy. That said, both companies could repay the entirety of their debt exposure as shown in their net debt position and low leverage ratio.</p><h2>The stocks’ performance</h2><p>Considering both stocks’ performance in the past 5 years, GOOG reported a solid performance of 93.44%, while META performed significantly worse, losing 37.65% over the analyzed period. The most significant references show a mixed picture, with the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) returning approximately 53%, and the Nasdaq technology index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) marked over 85% performance, while more industry-focused references, such as the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLC\">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a> (XLC) performed flat, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is the strongest outperformer of the analyzed references.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b316e664d2e9457222c2ae8e80185d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using SeekingAlpha.com</p><p>While both stocks display periods of relative strength, GOOG reported massive resilience after every major drop, while META has significantly suffered after its All-Time-High [ATH] in September 2021, leading to massive value destruction for its investors, being priced at levels not seen since 2016. In the next section, I will show how the next few years are forecasted to play out for both companies and if the actual stock price may offer an interesting opportunity, while also assessing the possible risks in different scenarios.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>To determine the actual fair value for both company&#39;s stock prices, I rely on the following Discounted Cash Flow [DCF] model, which extends over a forecast period of 5 years with 3 different sets of assumptions ranging from a more conservative to a more optimistic scenario, based on the metrics determining the WACC and the terminal value. As forecasted by the street consensus, Alphabet is anticipated to generate a massive 17.27% Free Cash Flow [FCF] CAGR over the coming 5 years, with its operating and net profitability increasing at respectively 12.73% and 13.80% CAGR, while its revenue is projected to expand at solid 10.98%, above the expected growth in the relevant industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f307c189819f83e89ac5301f675e985\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>The valuation takes into account a tighter monetary policy, which will undeniably be a reality in many economies worldwide in the coming years and lead to a higher weighted average cost of capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdac1fd157fda94ba58871ccb1c7b3f\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>I compute my opinion in terms of likelihood for the three different scenarios, and I, therefore, consider the stock to be significantly undervalued with a weighted average price target with about 54% upside potential at $152.</p><p>Meta is forecasted to expand slower, with its sales growing at 9.20% CAGR over the next 5 years, and its operating and net profit margins are expected to grow between 8.5% and 8.9%, in terms of FCF the company is anticipated to substantially increase its metric, with 17.61% CAGR through 2026.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cc9d6404157e698d23631783f3f4cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author, using data from S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>I then consider the same three scenarios affected by the company’s fundamentals and by the exogenous factors.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c566b27f98414ced096c76621fbf9c00\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>Despite both stocks seemingly being undervalued, when considering the weighted average price target, the two modelizations suggest that GOOG may offer a higher expected return, while META’s expected performance is seen 50% higher than the latest closing price, or at about $167. Both modelizations emphasize the still substantial expected return, also in the less optimistic scenario.</p><p>Investors should consider that those forecasts are based on a relatively conservative assumption in terms of perpetual growth rates, higher discount rates, and the recent trend in increased interest rates, which reflects the actual situation and forecast possible scenarios. An inversion of this trend would change this perspective and value the company at a higher price.</p><h2>Outlook and Risk discussion</h2><p>With both companies having tremendous possibilities to expand their powerful product ecosystem, it’s quite difficult to estimate their relevant total addressable market [TAM], as both peers have shown to be able to significantly grow their business either organically or through strategic acquisitions. Alphabet and Meta own strong brands with Google ranked in the fourth position in Interbrand&#39;s Best Global Brands, while Facebook is ranked 17th. Google’s essentially monopolistic position in search engines, its gigantic database with no equal data-harvesting worldwide, and the dominant position in the smartphone industry with Android estimated to hold a share of 72% in the mobile operating systems’ market, while Apple is progressively gaining market shares, are only some of the company’s major strengths. Despite this, with approximately 80% of its revenue originating from income related to advertising, the company’s revenue model is highly exposed to demand fluctuations, and with a recession likely seen coming in major global economies, dropping consumer spending and cuts in expenses on advertising, will likely have a tangible negative effect on the company’s results. Privacy concerns and regulatory pressure, as well as data security, are also possible future threats to Alphabet, Meta, and their peers, as the biggest strength for the companies, the massive data collection, is the most damaging weakness for their users. Among Alphabet’s most promising opportunities I do like to underscore the company’s positioning in terms of Artificial Intelligence [AI], Machine Learning [ML], and cloud-based business, as well as its expansion into the wearable OS market, and the great diversification opportunities the company could access or create through its colossal financial strength.</p><p>Meta is building a strong product portfolio including WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, Oculus, Workplace, Portal, and Calibra to diversify from Facebook and create expanded opportunities in strong secular trends. With over 45% of the world’s population using Facebook or its family products, the company holds an extremely powerful and irreplaceable position. But with approximately 98% of revenue originating from advertising, Meta is even more exposed to demand-driven fluctuations than Alphabet, and since the company is massively investing and focusing its resources on developing its visionary Metaverse, the diversification opportunities are, at least for the moment, seemingly more limited than Alphabet’s. Facebook has been losing popularity after facing backlash over its negligence in protecting the user’s privacy, while negative publicity, allegations of racial basis, or the platform’s inability to control the spread of fake and misleading information, may have cast a shadow on the company’s once brighter outlook. Despite this, Meta faces many opportunities in terms of possible monetization of its platforms through paid services such as news subscriptions, peer-to-peer marketplaces, online dating apps, e-wallets, or the development of other hardware devices, while its existing technologies could also be integrated or connected with a variety of other applications, such as e-commerce, gaming, or expanded into the digital creators&#39; space, or by offering remote-work solutions. In terms of future-oriented secular growth vectors, Meta has extensive expertise in AI and ML, which the company could use to penetrate markets such as the technologies used for autonomous vehicles, where other competitors like Google, Amazon, and Apple are already massively investing.</p><p>Alphabet is rated with a Strong Buy rating from Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating since August 25, 2022, and holds the first two positions in the Interactive Media and Services industry through its two share classes.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b711fdd651560e12eb413b5c4321377\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SeekingAlpha.com</p><p>Meta has instead been qualified as a Hold position since the end of 2021 and is ranked 22 out of 62 in the relevant industry. Both companies are without seen excelling in terms of profitability, while growth and valuation seem to be less favorable factors in the actual uncertain market environment, with Meta also significantly suffering from the negative momentum in its more recent price action.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27a653d50c6e2a961374aeaa87c1171\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SeekingAlpha.com</p><h2>The Verdict: Which stock is the better buy?</h2><p>The two analyzed companies are two global leaders in the technology services industry, with their respective strengths and weaknesses, but also offering inherent opportunities with their correlated risks. From an investor&#39;s point of view, it’s important to consider the company’s ability to create value for its shareholders, while minimizing the risks. Past performance is not a guarantee for future results, and despite GOOG overall performing significantly better than META in the past few years, the latter is seemingly offering great opportunities ahead, and my rather conservative modelization hints at the significant undervaluation of both stocks. Both companies have strong financials and report high profitability, but Alphabet is seemingly on a better path, as the company reported an overall better trend and is expected to optimize its profitability even further, while also owning a massive idling cash position that offers incredibly many options, and could even further increase the company’s already superior capital allocation efficiency. </p><p>Meta’s huge bet on the Metaverse may lead to great success, but it also bears a major risk, in times when the company’s great dependency on advertising spending is under pressure. While both companies’ Achilles heel is seemingly their dependency on spending in digital advertising, Meta is more reliant on it than Alphabet, and may also have shown less intention to diversify its revenue streams, when compared to its colossal peers. </p><p>I consider both companies as being a buy position for long-term oriented investors, but overall in this comparative analysis, I chose Alphabet as my favorite stock pick, for its preeminent opportunities and lower risk profile, while seemingly also offering the greater potential in its stock performance, when considering all three forecasted scenarios.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet Vs. Meta Platforms: Which Stock Is The Better Investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Vs. Meta Platforms: Which Stock Is The Better Investment?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 08:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559206-alphabet-vs-meta-platforms-which-stock-is-the-better-investment><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk profiles, while also offering massive opportunities to investors.GOOG reported a superior ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559206-alphabet-vs-meta-platforms-which-stock-is-the-better-investment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","META":"Meta Platforms","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559206-alphabet-vs-meta-platforms-which-stock-is-the-better-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284785084","content_text":"SummaryAlphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk profiles, while also offering massive opportunities to investors.GOOG reported a superior performance over the past years, while both stocks may offer great opportunities for investors, the ability to achieve the targets and the optionality will be determinant.Both companies share the same Achilles heel, in an industry that is forecasted to grow substantially over the next decade, while it also exposes their revenue stream to demand-driven fluctuations.This article focuses on long-term investment opportunities based on in-depth fundamental analysis and I offer two valuation models structured around multiple outcome scenarios.The technology sector is among the worst performers in the past year, losing over 30% of its value. While many stocks may have been excessively hyped during the massive rebound out of the pandemic-lows, others have been under pressure because of rising inflation, a higher cost of capital, bottlenecks among the supply chains, as well as headwinds caused by pandemic-related restrictions, geo-political tensions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Companies in the Information technology services industry could perform better from a yearly perspective but lately have been struggling to rebound, while others, such as the semiconductor and the solar industries, have recently been leading the sector.finvizfinvizThe two selected companies are two global giants in their industry, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) having nearly a monopoly in the online search field, as Google processes over 92% of online search volume worldwide, and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:META) counting 3.71B monthly users in Q3 2022, among the company’s core products, Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, or Messenger, up 4% Year-over-Year [YoY].Author, using TIKRWhile the two companies once were identified as a digital duopoly, because of their massive market share in global online advertising, more recently, companies such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Tencent (OTCX:OTCPK:TCEHY), or ByteDance through their social media TikTok, have penetrated the market and contributed to the erosion of this duopoly.Author, using data from Insider Intelligence, Research and Markets, Company filingsThe global IT Services market is projected to grow at a 9.5% Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR] through 2031, while the global digital advertising market is forecasted to grow even faster at a 13.9% CAGR, reaching a size of $1.79T through 2031. The sustained market growth is driven by the broader penetration of internet users, technological advancement, rising spending in digital advertising, and the expanding popularity of mobile phones and digital media across the world, while platforms such as in-app, mobile ads, connected TV or social media advertising are increasingly important vectors in the industry.An in-depth company comparisonAuthor, using data from S&P Capital IQThe financial comparison highlights the major relative strengths and weaknesses of the two giants. In terms of their Return on Invested Capital [ROIC], a very important metric I consider when pondering an investment decision, as a company must be able to consistently create value to be a sustainable investment, Alphabet seems to gradually increase its capital allocation efficiency over the past few years. Although Meta has been more efficient in the past, the metric has progressively dropped, until recently significantly falling under Alphabet’s level. The latter seems to have a more efficient core business, but Meta has seemingly more efficient cash management, observed in the relatively narrow spread between their ROIC and the Return on Capital Employed [ROCE], while Alphabet could significantly increase its capital allocation efficiency as the company reported a massive cash position of over $116B.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQAlthough Meta reports by far the higher gross margin, this metric’s growth is seemingly dropping from 21.94% CAGR in the past 5 years to 17.88% CAGR in the past 3 years. While Alphabet reported a lower actual value, the company saw this metric slightly increase from 19.38% CAGR to 20.72% CAGR, over the same time window. Meta’s main source of revenue began faltering as the widely popular video app TikTok massively increased its audience, and other companies increased their market share in the online advertising space, while Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shift to a strict app tracking transparency privacy policy, requiring the user’s approval for apps to be able to track their data, had an estimated two-digit billion impact on Meta’s revenue. On the operational side, the companies have an even more divergent profile, as Alphabet demonstrated being capable of significantly increasing its operational profitability from 22.13% CAGR in the past 5 years, to 29.80% CAGR over the past 3 years, while Meta’s operating margin growth is decelerating from 11.96% CAGR to 7.03% CAGR over the same period. Meta is massively investing in the development of the Metaverse while rising doubts emerge concerning the company’s ability to reach its ambitious goals in a concept that only a few people understand, while at the same time the company struggles with a weakening advertising business.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQMeta reportedly has a more cash-rich business than the analyzed peer, while none of them is paying a dividend, both companies spend billions in share-repurchase programs. Alphabet announced its biggest share-buyback program of over $70B earlier this year, a major increase after the authorized buyback of $50B in 2021 and $25B in 2019. Meta has reportedly spent $91B to repurchase 377M stocks at an average price of $242, between 2017 and September 2022, a price that seems steep, considering that the actual share price is valued at -53% of that price. Meta also reports significantly higher EPS, while in those terms, Alphabet has had a less negative development over the most recent quarters and reported significantly higher growth over the past few years. Both companies are relying on debt for sustaining their business, increasing significantly their debt reliance since 2019, as the historically low-interest rates pushed many companies to consider more debt in their financing strategy. That said, both companies could repay the entirety of their debt exposure as shown in their net debt position and low leverage ratio.The stocks’ performanceConsidering both stocks’ performance in the past 5 years, GOOG reported a solid performance of 93.44%, while META performed significantly worse, losing 37.65% over the analyzed period. The most significant references show a mixed picture, with the S&P 500 (SP500) returning approximately 53%, and the Nasdaq technology index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) marked over 85% performance, while more industry-focused references, such as the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) performed flat, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is the strongest outperformer of the analyzed references.Author, using SeekingAlpha.comWhile both stocks display periods of relative strength, GOOG reported massive resilience after every major drop, while META has significantly suffered after its All-Time-High [ATH] in September 2021, leading to massive value destruction for its investors, being priced at levels not seen since 2016. In the next section, I will show how the next few years are forecasted to play out for both companies and if the actual stock price may offer an interesting opportunity, while also assessing the possible risks in different scenarios.ValuationTo determine the actual fair value for both company's stock prices, I rely on the following Discounted Cash Flow [DCF] model, which extends over a forecast period of 5 years with 3 different sets of assumptions ranging from a more conservative to a more optimistic scenario, based on the metrics determining the WACC and the terminal value. As forecasted by the street consensus, Alphabet is anticipated to generate a massive 17.27% Free Cash Flow [FCF] CAGR over the coming 5 years, with its operating and net profitability increasing at respectively 12.73% and 13.80% CAGR, while its revenue is projected to expand at solid 10.98%, above the expected growth in the relevant industries.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQThe valuation takes into account a tighter monetary policy, which will undeniably be a reality in many economies worldwide in the coming years and lead to a higher weighted average cost of capital.AuthorI compute my opinion in terms of likelihood for the three different scenarios, and I, therefore, consider the stock to be significantly undervalued with a weighted average price target with about 54% upside potential at $152.Meta is forecasted to expand slower, with its sales growing at 9.20% CAGR over the next 5 years, and its operating and net profit margins are expected to grow between 8.5% and 8.9%, in terms of FCF the company is anticipated to substantially increase its metric, with 17.61% CAGR through 2026.Author, using data from S&P Capital IQI then consider the same three scenarios affected by the company’s fundamentals and by the exogenous factors.AuthorDespite both stocks seemingly being undervalued, when considering the weighted average price target, the two modelizations suggest that GOOG may offer a higher expected return, while META’s expected performance is seen 50% higher than the latest closing price, or at about $167. Both modelizations emphasize the still substantial expected return, also in the less optimistic scenario.Investors should consider that those forecasts are based on a relatively conservative assumption in terms of perpetual growth rates, higher discount rates, and the recent trend in increased interest rates, which reflects the actual situation and forecast possible scenarios. An inversion of this trend would change this perspective and value the company at a higher price.Outlook and Risk discussionWith both companies having tremendous possibilities to expand their powerful product ecosystem, it’s quite difficult to estimate their relevant total addressable market [TAM], as both peers have shown to be able to significantly grow their business either organically or through strategic acquisitions. Alphabet and Meta own strong brands with Google ranked in the fourth position in Interbrand's Best Global Brands, while Facebook is ranked 17th. Google’s essentially monopolistic position in search engines, its gigantic database with no equal data-harvesting worldwide, and the dominant position in the smartphone industry with Android estimated to hold a share of 72% in the mobile operating systems’ market, while Apple is progressively gaining market shares, are only some of the company’s major strengths. Despite this, with approximately 80% of its revenue originating from income related to advertising, the company’s revenue model is highly exposed to demand fluctuations, and with a recession likely seen coming in major global economies, dropping consumer spending and cuts in expenses on advertising, will likely have a tangible negative effect on the company’s results. Privacy concerns and regulatory pressure, as well as data security, are also possible future threats to Alphabet, Meta, and their peers, as the biggest strength for the companies, the massive data collection, is the most damaging weakness for their users. Among Alphabet’s most promising opportunities I do like to underscore the company’s positioning in terms of Artificial Intelligence [AI], Machine Learning [ML], and cloud-based business, as well as its expansion into the wearable OS market, and the great diversification opportunities the company could access or create through its colossal financial strength.Meta is building a strong product portfolio including WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, Oculus, Workplace, Portal, and Calibra to diversify from Facebook and create expanded opportunities in strong secular trends. With over 45% of the world’s population using Facebook or its family products, the company holds an extremely powerful and irreplaceable position. But with approximately 98% of revenue originating from advertising, Meta is even more exposed to demand-driven fluctuations than Alphabet, and since the company is massively investing and focusing its resources on developing its visionary Metaverse, the diversification opportunities are, at least for the moment, seemingly more limited than Alphabet’s. Facebook has been losing popularity after facing backlash over its negligence in protecting the user’s privacy, while negative publicity, allegations of racial basis, or the platform’s inability to control the spread of fake and misleading information, may have cast a shadow on the company’s once brighter outlook. Despite this, Meta faces many opportunities in terms of possible monetization of its platforms through paid services such as news subscriptions, peer-to-peer marketplaces, online dating apps, e-wallets, or the development of other hardware devices, while its existing technologies could also be integrated or connected with a variety of other applications, such as e-commerce, gaming, or expanded into the digital creators' space, or by offering remote-work solutions. In terms of future-oriented secular growth vectors, Meta has extensive expertise in AI and ML, which the company could use to penetrate markets such as the technologies used for autonomous vehicles, where other competitors like Google, Amazon, and Apple are already massively investing.Alphabet is rated with a Strong Buy rating from Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating since August 25, 2022, and holds the first two positions in the Interactive Media and Services industry through its two share classes.SeekingAlpha.comMeta has instead been qualified as a Hold position since the end of 2021 and is ranked 22 out of 62 in the relevant industry. Both companies are without seen excelling in terms of profitability, while growth and valuation seem to be less favorable factors in the actual uncertain market environment, with Meta also significantly suffering from the negative momentum in its more recent price action.SeekingAlpha.comThe Verdict: Which stock is the better buy?The two analyzed companies are two global leaders in the technology services industry, with their respective strengths and weaknesses, but also offering inherent opportunities with their correlated risks. From an investor's point of view, it’s important to consider the company’s ability to create value for its shareholders, while minimizing the risks. Past performance is not a guarantee for future results, and despite GOOG overall performing significantly better than META in the past few years, the latter is seemingly offering great opportunities ahead, and my rather conservative modelization hints at the significant undervaluation of both stocks. Both companies have strong financials and report high profitability, but Alphabet is seemingly on a better path, as the company reported an overall better trend and is expected to optimize its profitability even further, while also owning a massive idling cash position that offers incredibly many options, and could even further increase the company’s already superior capital allocation efficiency. Meta’s huge bet on the Metaverse may lead to great success, but it also bears a major risk, in times when the company’s great dependency on advertising spending is under pressure. While both companies’ Achilles heel is seemingly their dependency on spending in digital advertising, Meta is more reliant on it than Alphabet, and may also have shown less intention to diversify its revenue streams, when compared to its colossal peers. I consider both companies as being a buy position for long-term oriented investors, but overall in this comparative analysis, I chose Alphabet as my favorite stock pick, for its preeminent opportunities and lower risk profile, while seemingly also offering the greater potential in its stock performance, when considering all three forecasted scenarios.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837398761,"gmtCreate":1629855848553,"gmtModify":1676530152871,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$</a>Sell put option is a right choice! ???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$</a>Sell put option is a right choice! ???","text":"$TIGR 20211217 12.5 PUT(TIGR)$Sell put option is a right choice! ???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99634dd4fbc4e2d8a5565d188fc466a6","width":"1125","height":"1835"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837398761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576159031156193","authorId":"3576159031156193","name":"4ZOEYS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485a6405c364ce85c22e81b2913d390f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"Give that man a beer! No, get that man a TIGER?","text":"Give that man a beer! No, get that man a TIGER?","html":"Give that man a beer! No, get that man a TIGER?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889028232,"gmtCreate":1631093799626,"gmtModify":1676530465799,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>$47, up or down?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>$47, up or down?","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$$47, up or down?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48cc83f899da39bc83e5161883a2fe44","width":"1125","height":"3499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889028232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576159031156193","authorId":"3576159031156193","name":"4ZOEYS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485a6405c364ce85c22e81b2913d390f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"See, currently going down ?","text":"See, currently going down ?","html":"See, currently going down ?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817922625,"gmtCreate":1630899421567,"gmtModify":1676530416016,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Share for coins, like please","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Share for coins, like please","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Share for coins, like please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88e7dcfc888a60a5a7249faabefcabcc","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817922625","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952908272,"gmtCreate":1674308168597,"gmtModify":1676538936412,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello! Happy New Year!","listText":"Hello! Happy New Year!","text":"Hello! Happy New Year!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952908272","repostId":"1148061982","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148061982","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674272043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148061982?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-21 11:34","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Reminder: Market Holidays During Chinese Lunar New Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148061982","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><b>The China A-shares market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Friday, 27 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Hong Kong market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Wednesday, 25 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Singapore market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Tuesday, 24 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><h3>Background</h3><p>Chinese New Year is the festival that celebrates the beginning of a new year on the traditional lunisolar Chinese calendar. In Chinese, the festival is commonly referred to as the Spring Festival as the spring season in the lunisolar calendar traditionally starts with lichun, the first of the twenty-four solar terms which the festival celebrates around the time of the Chinese New Year. Marking the end of winter and the beginning of the spring season, observances traditionally take place from New Year’s Eve.</p><p>The Chinese New Year is associated with several myths and customs. The festival was traditionally a time to honor deities as well as ancestors. Within China, regional customs and traditions concerning the celebration of the New Year vary widely, and the evening preceding the New Year&#39;s Day is frequently regarded as an occasion for Chinese families to gather for the annual reunion dinner.</p><p>It is also a tradition for every family to thoroughly clean their house, in order to sweep away any ill fortune and to make way for incoming good luck. Another custom is the decoration of windows and doors with red paper-cuts and couplets. Other activities include lighting firecrackers and giving money in red paper envelopes.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Market Holidays During Chinese Lunar New Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Market Holidays During Chinese Lunar New Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-21 11:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><b>The China A-shares market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Friday, 27 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Hong Kong market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Wednesday, 25 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><p><b>The Singapore market</b> will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Tuesday, 24 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.</p><h3>Background</h3><p>Chinese New Year is the festival that celebrates the beginning of a new year on the traditional lunisolar Chinese calendar. In Chinese, the festival is commonly referred to as the Spring Festival as the spring season in the lunisolar calendar traditionally starts with lichun, the first of the twenty-four solar terms which the festival celebrates around the time of the Chinese New Year. Marking the end of winter and the beginning of the spring season, observances traditionally take place from New Year’s Eve.</p><p>The Chinese New Year is associated with several myths and customs. The festival was traditionally a time to honor deities as well as ancestors. Within China, regional customs and traditions concerning the celebration of the New Year vary widely, and the evening preceding the New Year&#39;s Day is frequently regarded as an occasion for Chinese families to gather for the annual reunion dinner.</p><p>It is also a tradition for every family to thoroughly clean their house, in order to sweep away any ill fortune and to make way for incoming good luck. Another custom is the decoration of windows and doors with red paper-cuts and couplets. Other activities include lighting firecrackers and giving money in red paper envelopes.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148061982","content_text":"Chinese Lunar New Year is around the corner. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.The China A-shares market will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Friday, 27 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.The Hong Kong market will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Wednesday, 25 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.The Singapore market will be closed from Monday, 23 January 2023 to Tuesday, 24 January 2023 local time for Chinese Lunar New Year.BackgroundChinese New Year is the festival that celebrates the beginning of a new year on the traditional lunisolar Chinese calendar. In Chinese, the festival is commonly referred to as the Spring Festival as the spring season in the lunisolar calendar traditionally starts with lichun, the first of the twenty-four solar terms which the festival celebrates around the time of the Chinese New Year. Marking the end of winter and the beginning of the spring season, observances traditionally take place from New Year’s Eve.The Chinese New Year is associated with several myths and customs. The festival was traditionally a time to honor deities as well as ancestors. Within China, regional customs and traditions concerning the celebration of the New Year vary widely, and the evening preceding the New Year's Day is frequently regarded as an occasion for Chinese families to gather for the annual reunion dinner.It is also a tradition for every family to thoroughly clean their house, in order to sweep away any ill fortune and to make way for incoming good luck. Another custom is the decoration of windows and doors with red paper-cuts and couplets. Other activities include lighting firecrackers and giving money in red paper envelopes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166418170,"gmtCreate":1624022274890,"gmtModify":1703826782185,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>If tonight can close&nbsp;above $66, may see a small gamma squeeze&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>If tonight can close&nbsp;above $66, may see a small gamma squeeze&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$If tonight can close above $66, may see a small gamma squeeze","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166418170","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964200900,"gmtCreate":1670146737301,"gmtModify":1676538310288,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like 🍀","listText":"Like 🍀","text":"Like 🍀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964200900","repostId":"2288925832","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288925832","pubTimestamp":1670121245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288925832?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-04 10:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288925832","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish inves","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0148afb1415d9966a462d316514fd0e2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Leading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish investors/weak holders to flee at its October lows. In contrast, NIO posted a 1M total return of 24.5%, as buying sentiments returned strongly to China&#39;s embattled pure-play BEV makers.</p><p>Notwithstanding, Chinese EV bears will point out that both stocks remain well below their starting point in 2022. Accordingly, XPEV&#39;s YTD total return of -80% suggests buyers have been decimated, while NIO posted a better YTD performance of -62%.</p><p>Hence, we believe it&#39;s opportune to update investors on whether the buying opportunity on the recent rally still has legs, as China seems to be progressively easing its COVID restrictions.</p><p>Our assessment indicates that one company has executed much better as China&#39;s economy worsened in 2022. China&#39;s stringent COVID restrictions and harsh property cooling measures have weakened its GDP growth significantly. Accordingly, China&#39;s manufacturing PMI also came below consensus estimates, behooving China to accelerate its reopening moves.</p><p>Coupled with heightened competition, higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, and a weaker economy, NIO has proved its mettle against XPeng. However, both companies remain unprofitable. With a narrowed route toward external financing, given the current market conditions, we believe investors will likely focus on the company that has executed better, with clearer visibility toward reaching profitability.</p><p>We believe the competitive landscape would likely intensify further. Legacy OEMs such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) have telegraphed ambitious plans to assume EV leadership by 2025/26. In addition, China&#39;s NEV leader BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDY) has continued to penetrate the EV market further, consolidating its position as the global NEV leader (including hybrids) in Q3&#39;22, ahead of Tesla (TSLA).</p><p>Therefore, we urge investors to consider the business models and execution prowess of NIO and XPeng carefully as they take on profitable leading auto behemoths as they chart their path to profitability.</p><p>We discuss why we continue to put our bet in NIO as a potential multi-bagger speculative opportunity ahead of XPEV.</p><p>Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.</p><h2>Competition In China Has Intensified</h2><p>China&#39;s economic malaise has battered its consumer discretionary spending, including automobiles. Yet, China&#39;s leading NEV makers have made robust progress in 2022.</p><p>For instance, BYD delivered more than 230K of NEV in November, notching another monthly record, up nearly 153% YoY. Notably, BYD has continued to post consistent MoM gains since April 2022, corroborating the resilience of its highly vertically-integrated operating model.</p><p>Moreover, Volkswagen has continued to invest heavily in its prized Chinese market. General Motors have also stepped up on its endeavor, looking to introduce 15 EV models for the Chinese market by 2025.</p><p>Hence, we postulate that the competitive landscape in China could indicate that some unprofitable/less profitable upstarts could be squeezed out of the leading pack subsequently. With NIO and XPeng continuing to struggle for profitability, it&#39;s vital to assess which company could emerge as the stronger competitor to take on these behemoths.</p><p>Furthermore, China&#39;s NEV subsidies are due to be eliminated by 2023, even though Chinese media reported that there could be some revisions. Notwithstanding, it could neutralize/lessen a constructive tailwind that has driven sales over the past few years.</p><p>Therefore the market outlook remains uncertain while competition has intensified. As such, nothing short of excellent execution is required to navigate these challenges. And it&#39;s one that XPeng has fallen short in 2022.</p><h2>XPeng Restructures</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e462b6ef38ba6c0893c716ae23dcdc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPeng Vehicle margins % (Company filings)</span></p><p>Given XPeng&#39;s low vehicle margins operating model, it&#39;s imperative for the company to continue posting robust production and deliveries growth to benefit significantly from fixed costs leverage.</p><p>However, XPeng&#39;s massive Q3 deliveries disappointment highlighted the execution weakness in a challenging macro and supply chain environment, in which leaders BYD and NIO performed admirably.</p><p>With a vehicle margin of just 11.6% in Q3 (up from Q2&#39;s 9.1%), XPeng&#39;s profitability has improved QoQ.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e172d47aa15683ff6c89cf5c9e8dbd2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPeng Deliveries (Company filings)</span></p><p>However, the company posted deliveries growth of just 15% in FQ3; a massive downshift from FQ2&#39;s 98%. As such, we believe it triggered a rethinking of its strategies, leading the company to announce an organizational restructuring, as CEO He Xiaoping emphasized:</p><blockquote>Frankly, we&#39;re going through a very challenging period in pursuing our long-term goals. In response, we recently conducted an in-depth strategic review and implemented organizational restructure. As market competition intensifies, we&#39;ll sharpen our marketing to highlight the great value in our industry-leading smart and electrification technologies and further enhance our branding, sales, and service capabilities. (XPeng FQ3&#39;22 earnings call)</blockquote><p>Hence, we believe there&#39;s little doubt that the increasingly competitive landscape hammered XPeng&#39;s execution. Therefore, moving forward, we think it&#39;s better to watch the action from the sidelines unless you have a very high conviction in XPeng&#39;s management.</p><p>XPeng announced October and November deliveries of 5.1K and 5.81K, respectively. As such, the company needs to deliver about 9.59K of NEV (midpoint) in Q4, predicated on the ramp of its G9. XPeng emphasized: &#34;The Company expects that deliveries will significantly increase in December 2022 as G9&#39;s production ramp-up accelerates under normalized operating conditions.&#34;</p><p>We believe that XPEV&#39;s battering toward its October lows has likely reflected significant pessimism. But, we don&#39;t think the recent rally is sustainable, as its price action suggests a massive covering rally.</p><p>As such, we urge investors thinking of cutting exposure to leverage on the recent recovery to take some risks off the table and rotate.</p><h2>Rotate To NIO<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b388563a2b413a07256e586ffbaa59a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NIO Deliveries (Company filings)</span></p></h2><p>NIO posted 14.18K in NEV deliveries for November, up nearly 41% MoM. As such, NIO demonstrated that its premium EV strategy is working well, despite China&#39;s economic malaise.</p><p>While China&#39;s COVID restrictions have impacted its production cadence, we believe it could be less material moving forward as China progressively eases.</p><p>Hence, NIO should be able to focus primarily on its execution as it looks to deliver its Q4 guidance of 45.5K NEVs (midpoint). The company appears confident in its recent deliveries outlook as NIO emphasized: &#34;NIO will further accelerate the production and delivery in December 2022.&#34;</p><p>NIO CEO William Li also telegraphed recently why it&#39;s critical for NIO to remain deeply entrenched as one of China&#39;s leading NEV leaders, given intensifying competition. Li accentuated:</p><blockquote>If a company is squeezed into the second tier in the final round [of competition in 2024/25], it is basically impossible for it to catch up to the first tier if it wants to. You can only be a second-tier languishing, barely alive person. - CnEVPost</blockquote><p>Therefore, we believe it&#39;s no surprise that the timeline aligns well with the milestones indicated by the legacy OEMs makers as they transform into EV companies.</p><p>Don&#39;t assume these OEM makers are &#34;dead&#34; yet, as they invest profits from their ICE segments to take on unprofitable EV makers. The battle is far from over, and we believe only the fittest EV makers could survive the increasingly competitive landscape.</p><h2>Is NIO Or XPEV Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p><i>Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.</i></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbee3aba450db5a7c84dee25b0094d59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>XPEV price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>The market had gotten XPEV spot on, knowing that it could face significant competitive pressures that could impact its operating model considerably.</p><p>As such, the market&#39;s battering from its June highs has likely reflected its positioning. Hence, the recent sharp rally from its October lows resembled a covering move from bearish investors taking profit and cutting exposure.</p><p>As such, we urge investors not to join this rally but consider taking the opportunity to take some risks off the table.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315a624b01e18068ea47037b78f4f8b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NIO price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>NIO&#39;s price action looks much more robust than XPEV, with no clear signs of a massive covering rally. Therefore, buyers are likely accumulating, trapping bearish investors at its long-term support and holding that defense line constructively.</p><p>Hence, we believe the opportunity for a mean-reversion rally for NIO is still attractive at these levels. XPEV investors who decide to cut exposure can consider rotating some exposure to NIO to take them toward the next stage of the competition in China&#39;s increasingly competitive EV market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO And XPeng: Don't Choose The One Getting Squeezed Out\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-04 10:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562162-nio-vs-xpeng-dont-choose-one-getting-squeezed-out","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2288925832","content_text":"ThesisLeading Chinese pure-play EV makers NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) enjoyed a solid recovery in November. XPEV posted a 1M total return of 55.5% as the market forced bearish investors/weak holders to flee at its October lows. In contrast, NIO posted a 1M total return of 24.5%, as buying sentiments returned strongly to China's embattled pure-play BEV makers.Notwithstanding, Chinese EV bears will point out that both stocks remain well below their starting point in 2022. Accordingly, XPEV's YTD total return of -80% suggests buyers have been decimated, while NIO posted a better YTD performance of -62%.Hence, we believe it's opportune to update investors on whether the buying opportunity on the recent rally still has legs, as China seems to be progressively easing its COVID restrictions.Our assessment indicates that one company has executed much better as China's economy worsened in 2022. China's stringent COVID restrictions and harsh property cooling measures have weakened its GDP growth significantly. Accordingly, China's manufacturing PMI also came below consensus estimates, behooving China to accelerate its reopening moves.Coupled with heightened competition, higher input costs, supply chain disruptions, and a weaker economy, NIO has proved its mettle against XPeng. However, both companies remain unprofitable. With a narrowed route toward external financing, given the current market conditions, we believe investors will likely focus on the company that has executed better, with clearer visibility toward reaching profitability.We believe the competitive landscape would likely intensify further. Legacy OEMs such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) have telegraphed ambitious plans to assume EV leadership by 2025/26. In addition, China's NEV leader BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDY) has continued to penetrate the EV market further, consolidating its position as the global NEV leader (including hybrids) in Q3'22, ahead of Tesla (TSLA).Therefore, we urge investors to consider the business models and execution prowess of NIO and XPeng carefully as they take on profitable leading auto behemoths as they chart their path to profitability.We discuss why we continue to put our bet in NIO as a potential multi-bagger speculative opportunity ahead of XPEV.Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.Competition In China Has IntensifiedChina's economic malaise has battered its consumer discretionary spending, including automobiles. Yet, China's leading NEV makers have made robust progress in 2022.For instance, BYD delivered more than 230K of NEV in November, notching another monthly record, up nearly 153% YoY. Notably, BYD has continued to post consistent MoM gains since April 2022, corroborating the resilience of its highly vertically-integrated operating model.Moreover, Volkswagen has continued to invest heavily in its prized Chinese market. General Motors have also stepped up on its endeavor, looking to introduce 15 EV models for the Chinese market by 2025.Hence, we postulate that the competitive landscape in China could indicate that some unprofitable/less profitable upstarts could be squeezed out of the leading pack subsequently. With NIO and XPeng continuing to struggle for profitability, it's vital to assess which company could emerge as the stronger competitor to take on these behemoths.Furthermore, China's NEV subsidies are due to be eliminated by 2023, even though Chinese media reported that there could be some revisions. Notwithstanding, it could neutralize/lessen a constructive tailwind that has driven sales over the past few years.Therefore the market outlook remains uncertain while competition has intensified. As such, nothing short of excellent execution is required to navigate these challenges. And it's one that XPeng has fallen short in 2022.XPeng RestructuresXPeng Vehicle margins % (Company filings)Given XPeng's low vehicle margins operating model, it's imperative for the company to continue posting robust production and deliveries growth to benefit significantly from fixed costs leverage.However, XPeng's massive Q3 deliveries disappointment highlighted the execution weakness in a challenging macro and supply chain environment, in which leaders BYD and NIO performed admirably.With a vehicle margin of just 11.6% in Q3 (up from Q2's 9.1%), XPeng's profitability has improved QoQ.XPeng Deliveries (Company filings)However, the company posted deliveries growth of just 15% in FQ3; a massive downshift from FQ2's 98%. As such, we believe it triggered a rethinking of its strategies, leading the company to announce an organizational restructuring, as CEO He Xiaoping emphasized:Frankly, we're going through a very challenging period in pursuing our long-term goals. In response, we recently conducted an in-depth strategic review and implemented organizational restructure. As market competition intensifies, we'll sharpen our marketing to highlight the great value in our industry-leading smart and electrification technologies and further enhance our branding, sales, and service capabilities. (XPeng FQ3'22 earnings call)Hence, we believe there's little doubt that the increasingly competitive landscape hammered XPeng's execution. Therefore, moving forward, we think it's better to watch the action from the sidelines unless you have a very high conviction in XPeng's management.XPeng announced October and November deliveries of 5.1K and 5.81K, respectively. As such, the company needs to deliver about 9.59K of NEV (midpoint) in Q4, predicated on the ramp of its G9. XPeng emphasized: \"The Company expects that deliveries will significantly increase in December 2022 as G9's production ramp-up accelerates under normalized operating conditions.\"We believe that XPEV's battering toward its October lows has likely reflected significant pessimism. But, we don't think the recent rally is sustainable, as its price action suggests a massive covering rally.As such, we urge investors thinking of cutting exposure to leverage on the recent recovery to take some risks off the table and rotate.Rotate To NIONIO Deliveries (Company filings)NIO posted 14.18K in NEV deliveries for November, up nearly 41% MoM. As such, NIO demonstrated that its premium EV strategy is working well, despite China's economic malaise.While China's COVID restrictions have impacted its production cadence, we believe it could be less material moving forward as China progressively eases.Hence, NIO should be able to focus primarily on its execution as it looks to deliver its Q4 guidance of 45.5K NEVs (midpoint). The company appears confident in its recent deliveries outlook as NIO emphasized: \"NIO will further accelerate the production and delivery in December 2022.\"NIO CEO William Li also telegraphed recently why it's critical for NIO to remain deeply entrenched as one of China's leading NEV leaders, given intensifying competition. Li accentuated:If a company is squeezed into the second tier in the final round [of competition in 2024/25], it is basically impossible for it to catch up to the first tier if it wants to. You can only be a second-tier languishing, barely alive person. - CnEVPostTherefore, we believe it's no surprise that the timeline aligns well with the milestones indicated by the legacy OEMs makers as they transform into EV companies.Don't assume these OEM makers are \"dead\" yet, as they invest profits from their ICE segments to take on unprofitable EV makers. The battle is far from over, and we believe only the fittest EV makers could survive the increasingly competitive landscape.Is NIO Or XPEV Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?Maintain Speculative Buy on NIO and Hold on XPEV.XPEV price chart (weekly) (TradingView)The market had gotten XPEV spot on, knowing that it could face significant competitive pressures that could impact its operating model considerably.As such, the market's battering from its June highs has likely reflected its positioning. Hence, the recent sharp rally from its October lows resembled a covering move from bearish investors taking profit and cutting exposure.As such, we urge investors not to join this rally but consider taking the opportunity to take some risks off the table.NIO price chart (weekly) (TradingView)NIO's price action looks much more robust than XPEV, with no clear signs of a massive covering rally. Therefore, buyers are likely accumulating, trapping bearish investors at its long-term support and holding that defense line constructively.Hence, we believe the opportunity for a mean-reversion rally for NIO is still attractive at these levels. XPEV investors who decide to cut exposure can consider rotating some exposure to NIO to take them toward the next stage of the competition in China's increasingly competitive EV market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966147324,"gmtCreate":1669459607569,"gmtModify":1676538199124,"author":{"id":"3577592690119548","authorId":"3577592690119548","name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Monday","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Monday","text":"$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$ Monday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966147324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}