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2021-04-01

Good

Watch these stocks as markets kick off 2021's second quarter

2021-03-27

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$please pump higher and higher

2021-03-27

Good time to enter

‘Bitcoin could be next domino to fall as investors rush to book profit,’ says technical analyst

2021-03-25

Now is around $120. Possible fall to $90+??

Apple Stock: At What Price Should You Buy?

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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Watch these stocks as markets kick off 2021's second quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWatch these stocks as markets kick off 2021's second quarter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-01 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/stocks-to-watch-as-markets-kick-off-2021s-second-quarter.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the first quarter of 2021 wraps up, the lists of winners and losers are fleshing out, presenting a varied bunch.\nWinners include the stocks of retailerL Brands,Marathon OilandAmerican Airlines. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/stocks-to-watch-as-markets-kick-off-2021s-second-quarter.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/stocks-to-watch-as-markets-kick-off-2021s-second-quarter.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1118806094","content_text":"As the first quarter of 2021 wraps up, the lists of winners and losers are fleshing out, presenting a varied bunch.\nWinners include the stocks of retailerL Brands,Marathon OilandAmerican Airlines. Among the losers areTake-Two Interactive Software,Advanced Micro DevicesandPeloton.\nThe end of the quarter presents opportunities to make moves, and there are possibilities on both sides, said Delano Saporu, founder and CEO of New Street Advisors Group.\nOf the winners, Saporu likes American Airlines.\n\"We've talked a lot about the pent-up demand in travel, airline prices increasing. American Airlines had an amazing quarter as far as the share price performance, and I think that continues,\" he told CNBC's\"Trading Nationon Wednesday.\nAs for the losers, Saporu looked ahead to changes facing Take-Two Interactive.\n“They’ve had a great story when it comes to the pandemic and we’ve seen people at home, but that hasn’t reflected as much in the share price,” he said. “They’re remastering games ... for the new systems that have been released. It’s an attractive opportunity for people that think long term.”\nQuint Tatro, chief investment officer of Joule Financial, picked a different stock from the losing list.\n“I like AMD,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. “I think they’ve got the best prospects. Incredible balance sheet.”\nAnother name that locked in gains for the quarter stood out to Tatro:Facebook.\n“Out of the FANG names, that’s our champ,” he said. “Book those gains in value. Look at growth as a trade for at least the beginning of Q2.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356530992,"gmtCreate":1616788255716,"gmtModify":1704799060042,"author":{"id":"3577693132458082","authorId":"3577693132458082","name":"Rocketbear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1078c1d2be63f31436041aa2ddda5725","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577693132458082","authorIdStr":"3577693132458082"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please pump higher and higher","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please pump higher and higher","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$please pump higher and higher","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03525c4644ed0ca7758ca366f3bf3e1","width":"750","height":"2267"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356530992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356597068,"gmtCreate":1616788124254,"gmtModify":1704799059063,"author":{"id":"3577693132458082","authorId":"3577693132458082","name":"Rocketbear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1078c1d2be63f31436041aa2ddda5725","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577693132458082","authorIdStr":"3577693132458082"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good time to enter","listText":"Good time to enter","text":"Good time to enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356597068","repostId":"1119843211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119843211","pubTimestamp":1616770039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119843211?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 22:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘Bitcoin could be next domino to fall as investors rush to book profit,’ says technical analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119843211","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.At last check, bitcoin was changing hands at $51.743 on CoinDesk, with the asset briefly touching a low at $50,458.10 over the past 24 hours and trading around its lowest point in over two weeks.“If so, this could be further bad news for Bitcoin. The crypto has been correlating positively with risk assets over the past ","content":"<p>Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.</p><p>At last check, bitcoin&nbsp;was changing hands at $51.743 on CoinDesk, with the asset briefly touching a low at $50,458.10 over the past 24 hours and trading around its lowest point in over two weeks.</p><p>Values for the crypto are off more than 11% so far this week, FactSet data show.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f433365c95d3e6845d8275eea88bafc\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>And at least one analyst fears that the crypto asset could come under pressure as a host of speculative assets have been coming under steady selling pressure so far this week. Bitcoin is often perceived as being uncorrelated with stocks and other assets but it has lately been moving in tandem with selloffs in crude-oil futures, and stocks, with declines in so-called risk assets coming as the U.S. dollar has gained some traction higher.</p><p>For that reason, Fawad&nbsp;Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets, in a Thursday note cautioned investors to watch out for more pressure on bitcoin that could take it beneath $50,000.</p><p>“Judging by recent events, traders seem happy to be selling into the rallies rather than buying the dip. So, don’t be surprised if we see renewed weakness in the markets later on in the session,” he wrote.</p><p>“If so, this could be further bad news for Bitcoin. The crypto has been correlating positively with risk assets over the past year and if that relationship remains strong then the digital currency could follow risk assets lower,” he added.</p><p>“Even if a proper sell-off does not materialise for stocks and other risk assets today, Bitcoin traders need to proceed with caution because in recent days we have been getting more and more signs that the appetite for risk is slowly fading away across the financial markets,” he added.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘Bitcoin could be next domino to fall as investors rush to book profit,’ says technical analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘Bitcoin could be next domino to fall as investors rush to book profit,’ says technical analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-26 22:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-could-be-next-domino-to-fall-as-investors-rush-to-book-profit-says-technical-analyst-11616701631?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.At last check, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-could-be-next-domino-to-fall-as-investors-rush-to-book-profit-says-technical-analyst-11616701631?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","TSLA":"特斯拉","SQ":"Block"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-could-be-next-domino-to-fall-as-investors-rush-to-book-profit-says-technical-analyst-11616701631?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1119843211","content_text":"Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.At last check, bitcoin was changing hands at $51.743 on CoinDesk, with the asset briefly touching a low at $50,458.10 over the past 24 hours and trading around its lowest point in over two weeks.Values for the crypto are off more than 11% so far this week, FactSet data show.And at least one analyst fears that the crypto asset could come under pressure as a host of speculative assets have been coming under steady selling pressure so far this week. Bitcoin is often perceived as being uncorrelated with stocks and other assets but it has lately been moving in tandem with selloffs in crude-oil futures, and stocks, with declines in so-called risk assets coming as the U.S. dollar has gained some traction higher.For that reason, Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets, in a Thursday note cautioned investors to watch out for more pressure on bitcoin that could take it beneath $50,000.“Judging by recent events, traders seem happy to be selling into the rallies rather than buying the dip. So, don’t be surprised if we see renewed weakness in the markets later on in the session,” he wrote.“If so, this could be further bad news for Bitcoin. The crypto has been correlating positively with risk assets over the past year and if that relationship remains strong then the digital currency could follow risk assets lower,” he added.“Even if a proper sell-off does not materialise for stocks and other risk assets today, Bitcoin traders need to proceed with caution because in recent days we have been getting more and more signs that the appetite for risk is slowly fading away across the financial markets,” he added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358879352,"gmtCreate":1616682042076,"gmtModify":1704797399592,"author":{"id":"3577693132458082","authorId":"3577693132458082","name":"Rocketbear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1078c1d2be63f31436041aa2ddda5725","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577693132458082","authorIdStr":"3577693132458082"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now is around $120. Possible fall to $90+??","listText":"Now is around $120. Possible fall to $90+??","text":"Now is around $120. Possible fall to $90+??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358879352","repostId":"1179353023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179353023","pubTimestamp":1616673145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179353023?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-25 19:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: At What Price Should You Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179353023","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Once my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.However, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would need to trade down to for me to expect above-average returns from the stock.An idea for how to get exposure to Apple Inc. without paying full price.Apple's net income has increased from $1.3 billion in FY 2005 to over $57 billion in FY 2020. As you can see from the graph below, the iPhone launch in 2007 was a ga","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Once my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.</li>\n <li>However, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would need to trade down to for me to expect above-average returns from the stock.</li>\n <li>An idea for how to get exposure to Apple Inc. without paying full price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2759ebda380d31d3cb7409646e4e7d5f\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"322\"><span>Photo by Andrej Kalsin/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>In a sign of the times, financial news networks now have minute-by-minute quotes on GameStop (GME) stock, right next to the Dow and S&amp;P 500. This is the part of the \"TikTokization\" of society, as real relationships and long-term thinking are increasingly replaced by smartphone apps that are engineered to trigger reward centers in the human brain, whether on Robinhood, TikTok, or Tinder. Somewhere along the way, the majority of investors stopped looking at fundamentals, swapping deep calculation and due diligence with mantras like \"stocks only go up,\" and \"hold the line.\" When stocks get disconnected from their business fundamentals, wealth typically ends up getting transferred. This clearly affects Apple (AAPL), the most popular stock in America. To this point, I have good news and bad news.</p>\n<p>First, the bad news. There are a lot of people who have no idea what they are doing who are being taken advantage of by Wall Street. They're rapid-fire day trading, getting&nbsp;fleeced in SPACs, buying options without knowing what implied volatility is, and loading their retirement accounts with AMC (AMC) and GameStop. The good news is that it's a tremendous advantage to be a long-term economic thinker when so few people are. This can help you make money not only in Apple but in the stock market in general.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price History</b></p>\n<p>Apple is up big over the last year off of the bear market low but is flat over the last six months. The obsession du-jour is the direction of Treasury yields. For the first time in my career, the Dow and Nasdaq, which are historically highly correlated, move opposite on most days based on how market participants feel about yields and whether the pandemic will last a few more months or not. This is more of the short-term thinking that won't make anyone money in the long run. But over the last year, you can see that Apple's fortunes have mirrored the US economy at large.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807cda601ea1bc6be4a57a3b5182548d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Over longer periods of time, Apple's stock price has reflected the actual business, which has been successful. The business results, along with the valuation you pay for Apple will determine your success as an investor in the stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39d987338524b27749867cfac46f235\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple Growth Rate and Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Apple's net income has increased from $1.3 billion in FY 2005 to over $57 billion in FY 2020. As you can see from the graph below, the iPhone launch in 2007 was a game-changer for Apple. More recently, Apple's growth in net income has slowed, although they're running over $60 billion annually in net income. Net income is quoted after corporate taxes, so remember that Apple is getting the benefit of a roughly 20 percent increase in income from the Trump tax cuts of 2017.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dbfd56479bd134400ea2dc32a079c08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>You can compare Apple's net income against their market cap of around $2 trillion, and you see that Apple trades for over 35x what it made in FY 2020. There's nothing wrong with Apple, it's a great business, but that's generally pretty expensive for a company whose growth is leveling out. Apple has some positives working in its favor, most importantly that they're expected to earn about 30 percent more in FY 2021 than they did in FY 2020. This brings the valuation down to about 28x its expected earnings, which is still pretty high. Additionally, Apple bulls are quick to remind you that growth in Apple's all-important services segment is driving their earnings and that the&nbsp;new iPhone&nbsp;should sell like hotcakes. It might not be enough, however, to justify the valuation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0005edbd4f616e1f2557865c40eb4383\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\"><span>Source: Macrotrends</span></p>\n<p>Apple trading for this kind of valuation it trades for is a recent development. For most of the 2010s, Apple traded closer to 10x earnings, reaching ~20x before the tech correction of 2018 took it back down. P/E ratios are based on earnings per share, which grew faster than pre-tax net income for two reasons.</p>\n<p>1. Trump's tax cuts in 2017. These increased corporate net income for S&amp;P 500 companies by around 20 percent, per my calculations. The tax cuts also unlocked money that had been trapped offshore, creating a large one-time earnings boost for corporations. Apple shows a clear benefit in its financial statements from the 2017 tax cuts. This is a one-time deal. I'll be blunt – I'm more likely to date a supermodel than corporate tax rates are to be cut further with the US fiscal situation being what it is.</p>\n<p>2. Tim Cook's buyback program. By my calculations, Apple was able to purchase a little over 36 percent of its shares outstanding between&nbsp;September 2012 and their last quarterly report. This was a huge win for Apple shareholders, as the company was able to buy tons of shares on the cheap. Apple earned $3.31 per share last year. If they hadn't bought back any shares, they only would have earned $2.21 per share. The buyback alone increased Apple's earnings per share by nearly 50 percent! And what gave the buyback oxygen was Apple's low valuation for most of the 2010s, allowing them to use cash flow and low-interest debt to cheaply accumulate shares and drive EPS growth.</p>\n<p>With the first tailwind being a one-time event and the second being largely ineffective with Apple's high valuation, if you're going to make a lot of money in Apple shares, you're either going to need to see Apple's net income itself grow, or its PE multiple to rise even higher. I think Apple can grow its net income by 4-5 percent annually over the next 10 years. This seems fair since net income has grown less than this since 2018. With the high valuation, the EPS isn't likely to grow much faster even with buybacks. Based on the business results of Apple and the valuation, I think you can expect a roughly 8 percent annual return by investing in Apple stock at current prices. This isn't enough for me to back up the truck on Apple, but since I've done very well in the past with Apple, the stock never really leaves my radar. What I need to buy Apple at is a price that's more agreeable to me.</p>\n<p><b>When to Buy Apple Stock</b></p>\n<p>My quick and dirty method for estimating stock returns is to take earnings yield plus normalized earnings growth. Historically analysts would use dividend yield instead of earnings yield, but now buybacks are much more common than they were in the past, so it doesn't bias the model in favor of dividends. For me to be interested in Apple, I'd like to see at least double-digit expected returns, and assuming 5 percent EPS growth, Apple would need to trade for 20x earnings or less (i.e. what it normally trades for historically). This implies a price of roughly $93 based on Apple's earnings estimates for next year. Apple trades for over $122 as of my writing this article, so we have a ways to go. Apple will need to trade sideways for a couple of years or see a 25-30 percent correction to hit where I'd like to start accumulating it.</p>\n<p>Given the bipolar history of Apple stock, I think that this is likely to happen at some point. After all, the stock didn't trade above $93 until July of 2020. $93 is just where I would start accumulating, by the way, I'd get more interested as the stock gets cheaper, assuming the fundamentals don't change too much.</p>\n<p>If you don't want to wait for a correction in Apple, I have another idea that I executed in my portfolio. Sometimes companies own large stakes in other companies, and this can present opportunities for patient investors. Michael Burry (of<i>The Big Short</i>fame) recently bought Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY) stock for this reason because they own part of Volkswagen and the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. After he publicly shared the idea, people started pumping a bunch of money into Porsche stock, which may or may not have corrected the mispricing (you'd have to look at the financials to know for sure). In Apple's case, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) owns a large minority stake in the company. If you pull Berkshire's 13-F, they own ~$117 billion in Apple stock as of the filing, which represents roughly 20 percent of Berkshire's market cap of ~$580 billion. Berkshire is cheaper than Apple and is tied to Apple stock by its ownership stake. I like the optionality of this trade because you get the Apple exposure essentially for free – the stake has little impact on Berkshire's EPS due to Apple's low dividend yield at the moment. If Apple goes down, I'd expect that Berkshire would be able to accumulate more stock which would help in the long run, and if Apple goes up, then it helps raise the floor on the price of Berkshire stock. There's no mechanism to force this unless Berkshire sells, but over the long run, I would expect that the economic link between the companies would be enough to create an advantage for me.</p>\n<p>I currently own Apple through index funds and Berkshire. If Apple and the NASDAQ continue to fall, I'll be interested in buying, but I'm watching and waiting for now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: At What Price Should You Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: At What Price Should You Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-25 19:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415785-apple-stock-what-price-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nOnce my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.\nHowever, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415785-apple-stock-what-price-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415785-apple-stock-what-price-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1179353023","content_text":"Summary\n\nOnce my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.\nHowever, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would need to trade down to for me to expect above-average returns from the stock.\nAn idea for how to get exposure to Apple Inc. without paying full price.\n\nPhoto by Andrej Kalsin/iStock via Getty Images\nIn a sign of the times, financial news networks now have minute-by-minute quotes on GameStop (GME) stock, right next to the Dow and S&P 500. This is the part of the \"TikTokization\" of society, as real relationships and long-term thinking are increasingly replaced by smartphone apps that are engineered to trigger reward centers in the human brain, whether on Robinhood, TikTok, or Tinder. Somewhere along the way, the majority of investors stopped looking at fundamentals, swapping deep calculation and due diligence with mantras like \"stocks only go up,\" and \"hold the line.\" When stocks get disconnected from their business fundamentals, wealth typically ends up getting transferred. This clearly affects Apple (AAPL), the most popular stock in America. To this point, I have good news and bad news.\nFirst, the bad news. There are a lot of people who have no idea what they are doing who are being taken advantage of by Wall Street. They're rapid-fire day trading, getting fleeced in SPACs, buying options without knowing what implied volatility is, and loading their retirement accounts with AMC (AMC) and GameStop. The good news is that it's a tremendous advantage to be a long-term economic thinker when so few people are. This can help you make money not only in Apple but in the stock market in general.\nApple Stock Price History\nApple is up big over the last year off of the bear market low but is flat over the last six months. The obsession du-jour is the direction of Treasury yields. For the first time in my career, the Dow and Nasdaq, which are historically highly correlated, move opposite on most days based on how market participants feel about yields and whether the pandemic will last a few more months or not. This is more of the short-term thinking that won't make anyone money in the long run. But over the last year, you can see that Apple's fortunes have mirrored the US economy at large.\nData by YCharts\nOver longer periods of time, Apple's stock price has reflected the actual business, which has been successful. The business results, along with the valuation you pay for Apple will determine your success as an investor in the stock.\nData by YCharts\nApple Growth Rate and Valuation\nApple's net income has increased from $1.3 billion in FY 2005 to over $57 billion in FY 2020. As you can see from the graph below, the iPhone launch in 2007 was a game-changer for Apple. More recently, Apple's growth in net income has slowed, although they're running over $60 billion annually in net income. Net income is quoted after corporate taxes, so remember that Apple is getting the benefit of a roughly 20 percent increase in income from the Trump tax cuts of 2017.\nSource: Statista\nYou can compare Apple's net income against their market cap of around $2 trillion, and you see that Apple trades for over 35x what it made in FY 2020. There's nothing wrong with Apple, it's a great business, but that's generally pretty expensive for a company whose growth is leveling out. Apple has some positives working in its favor, most importantly that they're expected to earn about 30 percent more in FY 2021 than they did in FY 2020. This brings the valuation down to about 28x its expected earnings, which is still pretty high. Additionally, Apple bulls are quick to remind you that growth in Apple's all-important services segment is driving their earnings and that the new iPhone should sell like hotcakes. It might not be enough, however, to justify the valuation.\nSource: Macrotrends\nApple trading for this kind of valuation it trades for is a recent development. For most of the 2010s, Apple traded closer to 10x earnings, reaching ~20x before the tech correction of 2018 took it back down. P/E ratios are based on earnings per share, which grew faster than pre-tax net income for two reasons.\n1. Trump's tax cuts in 2017. These increased corporate net income for S&P 500 companies by around 20 percent, per my calculations. The tax cuts also unlocked money that had been trapped offshore, creating a large one-time earnings boost for corporations. Apple shows a clear benefit in its financial statements from the 2017 tax cuts. This is a one-time deal. I'll be blunt – I'm more likely to date a supermodel than corporate tax rates are to be cut further with the US fiscal situation being what it is.\n2. Tim Cook's buyback program. By my calculations, Apple was able to purchase a little over 36 percent of its shares outstanding between September 2012 and their last quarterly report. This was a huge win for Apple shareholders, as the company was able to buy tons of shares on the cheap. Apple earned $3.31 per share last year. If they hadn't bought back any shares, they only would have earned $2.21 per share. The buyback alone increased Apple's earnings per share by nearly 50 percent! And what gave the buyback oxygen was Apple's low valuation for most of the 2010s, allowing them to use cash flow and low-interest debt to cheaply accumulate shares and drive EPS growth.\nWith the first tailwind being a one-time event and the second being largely ineffective with Apple's high valuation, if you're going to make a lot of money in Apple shares, you're either going to need to see Apple's net income itself grow, or its PE multiple to rise even higher. I think Apple can grow its net income by 4-5 percent annually over the next 10 years. This seems fair since net income has grown less than this since 2018. With the high valuation, the EPS isn't likely to grow much faster even with buybacks. Based on the business results of Apple and the valuation, I think you can expect a roughly 8 percent annual return by investing in Apple stock at current prices. This isn't enough for me to back up the truck on Apple, but since I've done very well in the past with Apple, the stock never really leaves my radar. What I need to buy Apple at is a price that's more agreeable to me.\nWhen to Buy Apple Stock\nMy quick and dirty method for estimating stock returns is to take earnings yield plus normalized earnings growth. Historically analysts would use dividend yield instead of earnings yield, but now buybacks are much more common than they were in the past, so it doesn't bias the model in favor of dividends. For me to be interested in Apple, I'd like to see at least double-digit expected returns, and assuming 5 percent EPS growth, Apple would need to trade for 20x earnings or less (i.e. what it normally trades for historically). This implies a price of roughly $93 based on Apple's earnings estimates for next year. Apple trades for over $122 as of my writing this article, so we have a ways to go. Apple will need to trade sideways for a couple of years or see a 25-30 percent correction to hit where I'd like to start accumulating it.\nGiven the bipolar history of Apple stock, I think that this is likely to happen at some point. After all, the stock didn't trade above $93 until July of 2020. $93 is just where I would start accumulating, by the way, I'd get more interested as the stock gets cheaper, assuming the fundamentals don't change too much.\nIf you don't want to wait for a correction in Apple, I have another idea that I executed in my portfolio. Sometimes companies own large stakes in other companies, and this can present opportunities for patient investors. Michael Burry (ofThe Big Shortfame) recently bought Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY) stock for this reason because they own part of Volkswagen and the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. After he publicly shared the idea, people started pumping a bunch of money into Porsche stock, which may or may not have corrected the mispricing (you'd have to look at the financials to know for sure). In Apple's case, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) owns a large minority stake in the company. If you pull Berkshire's 13-F, they own ~$117 billion in Apple stock as of the filing, which represents roughly 20 percent of Berkshire's market cap of ~$580 billion. Berkshire is cheaper than Apple and is tied to Apple stock by its ownership stake. I like the optionality of this trade because you get the Apple exposure essentially for free – the stake has little impact on Berkshire's EPS due to Apple's low dividend yield at the moment. If Apple goes down, I'd expect that Berkshire would be able to accumulate more stock which would help in the long run, and if Apple goes up, then it helps raise the floor on the price of Berkshire stock. There's no mechanism to force this unless Berkshire sells, but over the long run, I would expect that the economic link between the companies would be enough to create an advantage for me.\nI currently own Apple through index funds and Berkshire. If Apple and the NASDAQ continue to fall, I'll be interested in buying, but I'm watching and waiting for now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":357285555,"gmtCreate":1617278584777,"gmtModify":1704698184249,"author":{"id":"3577693132458082","authorId":"3577693132458082","name":"Rocketbear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1078c1d2be63f31436041aa2ddda5725","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577693132458082","authorIdStr":"3577693132458082"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357285555","repostId":"1118806094","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118806094","pubTimestamp":1617276223,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118806094?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-01 19:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Watch these stocks as markets kick off 2021's second quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118806094","media":"cnbc","summary":"As the first quarter of 2021 wraps up, the lists of winners and losers are fleshing out, presenting ","content":"<div>\n<p>As the first quarter of 2021 wraps up, the lists of winners and losers are fleshing out, presenting a varied bunch.\nWinners include the stocks of retailerL Brands,Marathon OilandAmerican Airlines. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/stocks-to-watch-as-markets-kick-off-2021s-second-quarter.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Watch these stocks as markets kick off 2021's second quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWatch these stocks as markets kick off 2021's second quarter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-01 19:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/stocks-to-watch-as-markets-kick-off-2021s-second-quarter.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the first quarter of 2021 wraps up, the lists of winners and losers are fleshing out, presenting a varied bunch.\nWinners include the stocks of retailerL Brands,Marathon OilandAmerican Airlines. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/stocks-to-watch-as-markets-kick-off-2021s-second-quarter.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/stocks-to-watch-as-markets-kick-off-2021s-second-quarter.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1118806094","content_text":"As the first quarter of 2021 wraps up, the lists of winners and losers are fleshing out, presenting a varied bunch.\nWinners include the stocks of retailerL Brands,Marathon OilandAmerican Airlines. Among the losers areTake-Two Interactive Software,Advanced Micro DevicesandPeloton.\nThe end of the quarter presents opportunities to make moves, and there are possibilities on both sides, said Delano Saporu, founder and CEO of New Street Advisors Group.\nOf the winners, Saporu likes American Airlines.\n\"We've talked a lot about the pent-up demand in travel, airline prices increasing. American Airlines had an amazing quarter as far as the share price performance, and I think that continues,\" he told CNBC's\"Trading Nationon Wednesday.\nAs for the losers, Saporu looked ahead to changes facing Take-Two Interactive.\n“They’ve had a great story when it comes to the pandemic and we’ve seen people at home, but that hasn’t reflected as much in the share price,” he said. “They’re remastering games ... for the new systems that have been released. It’s an attractive opportunity for people that think long term.”\nQuint Tatro, chief investment officer of Joule Financial, picked a different stock from the losing list.\n“I like AMD,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. “I think they’ve got the best prospects. Incredible balance sheet.”\nAnother name that locked in gains for the quarter stood out to Tatro:Facebook.\n“Out of the FANG names, that’s our champ,” he said. “Book those gains in value. Look at growth as a trade for at least the beginning of Q2.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356530992,"gmtCreate":1616788255716,"gmtModify":1704799060042,"author":{"id":"3577693132458082","authorId":"3577693132458082","name":"Rocketbear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1078c1d2be63f31436041aa2ddda5725","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577693132458082","authorIdStr":"3577693132458082"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please pump higher and higher","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please pump higher and higher","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$please pump higher and higher","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03525c4644ed0ca7758ca366f3bf3e1","width":"750","height":"2267"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356530992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356597068,"gmtCreate":1616788124254,"gmtModify":1704799059063,"author":{"id":"3577693132458082","authorId":"3577693132458082","name":"Rocketbear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1078c1d2be63f31436041aa2ddda5725","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577693132458082","authorIdStr":"3577693132458082"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good time to enter","listText":"Good time to enter","text":"Good time to enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356597068","repostId":"1119843211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119843211","pubTimestamp":1616770039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119843211?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 22:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘Bitcoin could be next domino to fall as investors rush to book profit,’ says technical analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119843211","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.At last check, bitcoin was changing hands at $51.743 on CoinDesk, with the asset briefly touching a low at $50,458.10 over the past 24 hours and trading around its lowest point in over two weeks.“If so, this could be further bad news for Bitcoin. The crypto has been correlating positively with risk assets over the past ","content":"<p>Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.</p><p>At last check, bitcoin&nbsp;was changing hands at $51.743 on CoinDesk, with the asset briefly touching a low at $50,458.10 over the past 24 hours and trading around its lowest point in over two weeks.</p><p>Values for the crypto are off more than 11% so far this week, FactSet data show.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f433365c95d3e6845d8275eea88bafc\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>And at least one analyst fears that the crypto asset could come under pressure as a host of speculative assets have been coming under steady selling pressure so far this week. Bitcoin is often perceived as being uncorrelated with stocks and other assets but it has lately been moving in tandem with selloffs in crude-oil futures, and stocks, with declines in so-called risk assets coming as the U.S. dollar has gained some traction higher.</p><p>For that reason, Fawad&nbsp;Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets, in a Thursday note cautioned investors to watch out for more pressure on bitcoin that could take it beneath $50,000.</p><p>“Judging by recent events, traders seem happy to be selling into the rallies rather than buying the dip. So, don’t be surprised if we see renewed weakness in the markets later on in the session,” he wrote.</p><p>“If so, this could be further bad news for Bitcoin. The crypto has been correlating positively with risk assets over the past year and if that relationship remains strong then the digital currency could follow risk assets lower,” he added.</p><p>“Even if a proper sell-off does not materialise for stocks and other risk assets today, Bitcoin traders need to proceed with caution because in recent days we have been getting more and more signs that the appetite for risk is slowly fading away across the financial markets,” he added.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘Bitcoin could be next domino to fall as investors rush to book profit,’ says technical analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘Bitcoin could be next domino to fall as investors rush to book profit,’ says technical analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-26 22:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-could-be-next-domino-to-fall-as-investors-rush-to-book-profit-says-technical-analyst-11616701631?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.At last check, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-could-be-next-domino-to-fall-as-investors-rush-to-book-profit-says-technical-analyst-11616701631?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","TSLA":"特斯拉","SQ":"Block"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-could-be-next-domino-to-fall-as-investors-rush-to-book-profit-says-technical-analyst-11616701631?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1119843211","content_text":"Bitcoin prices were under pressure on Thursday, and the world’s No. 1 crypto could see further bearish pain in the near term if stocks continue to buckle, according to an analyst.At last check, bitcoin was changing hands at $51.743 on CoinDesk, with the asset briefly touching a low at $50,458.10 over the past 24 hours and trading around its lowest point in over two weeks.Values for the crypto are off more than 11% so far this week, FactSet data show.And at least one analyst fears that the crypto asset could come under pressure as a host of speculative assets have been coming under steady selling pressure so far this week. Bitcoin is often perceived as being uncorrelated with stocks and other assets but it has lately been moving in tandem with selloffs in crude-oil futures, and stocks, with declines in so-called risk assets coming as the U.S. dollar has gained some traction higher.For that reason, Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets, in a Thursday note cautioned investors to watch out for more pressure on bitcoin that could take it beneath $50,000.“Judging by recent events, traders seem happy to be selling into the rallies rather than buying the dip. So, don’t be surprised if we see renewed weakness in the markets later on in the session,” he wrote.“If so, this could be further bad news for Bitcoin. The crypto has been correlating positively with risk assets over the past year and if that relationship remains strong then the digital currency could follow risk assets lower,” he added.“Even if a proper sell-off does not materialise for stocks and other risk assets today, Bitcoin traders need to proceed with caution because in recent days we have been getting more and more signs that the appetite for risk is slowly fading away across the financial markets,” he added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358879352,"gmtCreate":1616682042076,"gmtModify":1704797399592,"author":{"id":"3577693132458082","authorId":"3577693132458082","name":"Rocketbear","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1078c1d2be63f31436041aa2ddda5725","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577693132458082","authorIdStr":"3577693132458082"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now is around $120. Possible fall to $90+??","listText":"Now is around $120. Possible fall to $90+??","text":"Now is around $120. Possible fall to $90+??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358879352","repostId":"1179353023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179353023","pubTimestamp":1616673145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179353023?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-25 19:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: At What Price Should You Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179353023","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Once my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.However, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would need to trade down to for me to expect above-average returns from the stock.An idea for how to get exposure to Apple Inc. without paying full price.Apple's net income has increased from $1.3 billion in FY 2005 to over $57 billion in FY 2020. As you can see from the graph below, the iPhone launch in 2007 was a ga","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Once my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.</li>\n <li>However, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would need to trade down to for me to expect above-average returns from the stock.</li>\n <li>An idea for how to get exposure to Apple Inc. without paying full price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2759ebda380d31d3cb7409646e4e7d5f\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"322\"><span>Photo by Andrej Kalsin/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>In a sign of the times, financial news networks now have minute-by-minute quotes on GameStop (GME) stock, right next to the Dow and S&amp;P 500. This is the part of the \"TikTokization\" of society, as real relationships and long-term thinking are increasingly replaced by smartphone apps that are engineered to trigger reward centers in the human brain, whether on Robinhood, TikTok, or Tinder. Somewhere along the way, the majority of investors stopped looking at fundamentals, swapping deep calculation and due diligence with mantras like \"stocks only go up,\" and \"hold the line.\" When stocks get disconnected from their business fundamentals, wealth typically ends up getting transferred. This clearly affects Apple (AAPL), the most popular stock in America. To this point, I have good news and bad news.</p>\n<p>First, the bad news. There are a lot of people who have no idea what they are doing who are being taken advantage of by Wall Street. They're rapid-fire day trading, getting&nbsp;fleeced in SPACs, buying options without knowing what implied volatility is, and loading their retirement accounts with AMC (AMC) and GameStop. The good news is that it's a tremendous advantage to be a long-term economic thinker when so few people are. This can help you make money not only in Apple but in the stock market in general.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price History</b></p>\n<p>Apple is up big over the last year off of the bear market low but is flat over the last six months. The obsession du-jour is the direction of Treasury yields. For the first time in my career, the Dow and Nasdaq, which are historically highly correlated, move opposite on most days based on how market participants feel about yields and whether the pandemic will last a few more months or not. This is more of the short-term thinking that won't make anyone money in the long run. But over the last year, you can see that Apple's fortunes have mirrored the US economy at large.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807cda601ea1bc6be4a57a3b5182548d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Over longer periods of time, Apple's stock price has reflected the actual business, which has been successful. The business results, along with the valuation you pay for Apple will determine your success as an investor in the stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39d987338524b27749867cfac46f235\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple Growth Rate and Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Apple's net income has increased from $1.3 billion in FY 2005 to over $57 billion in FY 2020. As you can see from the graph below, the iPhone launch in 2007 was a game-changer for Apple. More recently, Apple's growth in net income has slowed, although they're running over $60 billion annually in net income. Net income is quoted after corporate taxes, so remember that Apple is getting the benefit of a roughly 20 percent increase in income from the Trump tax cuts of 2017.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dbfd56479bd134400ea2dc32a079c08\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>You can compare Apple's net income against their market cap of around $2 trillion, and you see that Apple trades for over 35x what it made in FY 2020. There's nothing wrong with Apple, it's a great business, but that's generally pretty expensive for a company whose growth is leveling out. Apple has some positives working in its favor, most importantly that they're expected to earn about 30 percent more in FY 2021 than they did in FY 2020. This brings the valuation down to about 28x its expected earnings, which is still pretty high. Additionally, Apple bulls are quick to remind you that growth in Apple's all-important services segment is driving their earnings and that the&nbsp;new iPhone&nbsp;should sell like hotcakes. It might not be enough, however, to justify the valuation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0005edbd4f616e1f2557865c40eb4383\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\"><span>Source: Macrotrends</span></p>\n<p>Apple trading for this kind of valuation it trades for is a recent development. For most of the 2010s, Apple traded closer to 10x earnings, reaching ~20x before the tech correction of 2018 took it back down. P/E ratios are based on earnings per share, which grew faster than pre-tax net income for two reasons.</p>\n<p>1. Trump's tax cuts in 2017. These increased corporate net income for S&amp;P 500 companies by around 20 percent, per my calculations. The tax cuts also unlocked money that had been trapped offshore, creating a large one-time earnings boost for corporations. Apple shows a clear benefit in its financial statements from the 2017 tax cuts. This is a one-time deal. I'll be blunt – I'm more likely to date a supermodel than corporate tax rates are to be cut further with the US fiscal situation being what it is.</p>\n<p>2. Tim Cook's buyback program. By my calculations, Apple was able to purchase a little over 36 percent of its shares outstanding between&nbsp;September 2012 and their last quarterly report. This was a huge win for Apple shareholders, as the company was able to buy tons of shares on the cheap. Apple earned $3.31 per share last year. If they hadn't bought back any shares, they only would have earned $2.21 per share. The buyback alone increased Apple's earnings per share by nearly 50 percent! And what gave the buyback oxygen was Apple's low valuation for most of the 2010s, allowing them to use cash flow and low-interest debt to cheaply accumulate shares and drive EPS growth.</p>\n<p>With the first tailwind being a one-time event and the second being largely ineffective with Apple's high valuation, if you're going to make a lot of money in Apple shares, you're either going to need to see Apple's net income itself grow, or its PE multiple to rise even higher. I think Apple can grow its net income by 4-5 percent annually over the next 10 years. This seems fair since net income has grown less than this since 2018. With the high valuation, the EPS isn't likely to grow much faster even with buybacks. Based on the business results of Apple and the valuation, I think you can expect a roughly 8 percent annual return by investing in Apple stock at current prices. This isn't enough for me to back up the truck on Apple, but since I've done very well in the past with Apple, the stock never really leaves my radar. What I need to buy Apple at is a price that's more agreeable to me.</p>\n<p><b>When to Buy Apple Stock</b></p>\n<p>My quick and dirty method for estimating stock returns is to take earnings yield plus normalized earnings growth. Historically analysts would use dividend yield instead of earnings yield, but now buybacks are much more common than they were in the past, so it doesn't bias the model in favor of dividends. For me to be interested in Apple, I'd like to see at least double-digit expected returns, and assuming 5 percent EPS growth, Apple would need to trade for 20x earnings or less (i.e. what it normally trades for historically). This implies a price of roughly $93 based on Apple's earnings estimates for next year. Apple trades for over $122 as of my writing this article, so we have a ways to go. Apple will need to trade sideways for a couple of years or see a 25-30 percent correction to hit where I'd like to start accumulating it.</p>\n<p>Given the bipolar history of Apple stock, I think that this is likely to happen at some point. After all, the stock didn't trade above $93 until July of 2020. $93 is just where I would start accumulating, by the way, I'd get more interested as the stock gets cheaper, assuming the fundamentals don't change too much.</p>\n<p>If you don't want to wait for a correction in Apple, I have another idea that I executed in my portfolio. Sometimes companies own large stakes in other companies, and this can present opportunities for patient investors. Michael Burry (of<i>The Big Short</i>fame) recently bought Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY) stock for this reason because they own part of Volkswagen and the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. After he publicly shared the idea, people started pumping a bunch of money into Porsche stock, which may or may not have corrected the mispricing (you'd have to look at the financials to know for sure). In Apple's case, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) owns a large minority stake in the company. If you pull Berkshire's 13-F, they own ~$117 billion in Apple stock as of the filing, which represents roughly 20 percent of Berkshire's market cap of ~$580 billion. Berkshire is cheaper than Apple and is tied to Apple stock by its ownership stake. I like the optionality of this trade because you get the Apple exposure essentially for free – the stake has little impact on Berkshire's EPS due to Apple's low dividend yield at the moment. If Apple goes down, I'd expect that Berkshire would be able to accumulate more stock which would help in the long run, and if Apple goes up, then it helps raise the floor on the price of Berkshire stock. There's no mechanism to force this unless Berkshire sells, but over the long run, I would expect that the economic link between the companies would be enough to create an advantage for me.</p>\n<p>I currently own Apple through index funds and Berkshire. If Apple and the NASDAQ continue to fall, I'll be interested in buying, but I'm watching and waiting for now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: At What Price Should You Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: At What Price Should You Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-25 19:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415785-apple-stock-what-price-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nOnce my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.\nHowever, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415785-apple-stock-what-price-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415785-apple-stock-what-price-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1179353023","content_text":"Summary\n\nOnce my favorite stock, the current valuation for Apple doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.\nHowever, Apple is a great business that remains on my radar. I share the price Apple would need to trade down to for me to expect above-average returns from the stock.\nAn idea for how to get exposure to Apple Inc. without paying full price.\n\nPhoto by Andrej Kalsin/iStock via Getty Images\nIn a sign of the times, financial news networks now have minute-by-minute quotes on GameStop (GME) stock, right next to the Dow and S&P 500. This is the part of the \"TikTokization\" of society, as real relationships and long-term thinking are increasingly replaced by smartphone apps that are engineered to trigger reward centers in the human brain, whether on Robinhood, TikTok, or Tinder. Somewhere along the way, the majority of investors stopped looking at fundamentals, swapping deep calculation and due diligence with mantras like \"stocks only go up,\" and \"hold the line.\" When stocks get disconnected from their business fundamentals, wealth typically ends up getting transferred. This clearly affects Apple (AAPL), the most popular stock in America. To this point, I have good news and bad news.\nFirst, the bad news. There are a lot of people who have no idea what they are doing who are being taken advantage of by Wall Street. They're rapid-fire day trading, getting fleeced in SPACs, buying options without knowing what implied volatility is, and loading their retirement accounts with AMC (AMC) and GameStop. The good news is that it's a tremendous advantage to be a long-term economic thinker when so few people are. This can help you make money not only in Apple but in the stock market in general.\nApple Stock Price History\nApple is up big over the last year off of the bear market low but is flat over the last six months. The obsession du-jour is the direction of Treasury yields. For the first time in my career, the Dow and Nasdaq, which are historically highly correlated, move opposite on most days based on how market participants feel about yields and whether the pandemic will last a few more months or not. This is more of the short-term thinking that won't make anyone money in the long run. But over the last year, you can see that Apple's fortunes have mirrored the US economy at large.\nData by YCharts\nOver longer periods of time, Apple's stock price has reflected the actual business, which has been successful. The business results, along with the valuation you pay for Apple will determine your success as an investor in the stock.\nData by YCharts\nApple Growth Rate and Valuation\nApple's net income has increased from $1.3 billion in FY 2005 to over $57 billion in FY 2020. As you can see from the graph below, the iPhone launch in 2007 was a game-changer for Apple. More recently, Apple's growth in net income has slowed, although they're running over $60 billion annually in net income. Net income is quoted after corporate taxes, so remember that Apple is getting the benefit of a roughly 20 percent increase in income from the Trump tax cuts of 2017.\nSource: Statista\nYou can compare Apple's net income against their market cap of around $2 trillion, and you see that Apple trades for over 35x what it made in FY 2020. There's nothing wrong with Apple, it's a great business, but that's generally pretty expensive for a company whose growth is leveling out. Apple has some positives working in its favor, most importantly that they're expected to earn about 30 percent more in FY 2021 than they did in FY 2020. This brings the valuation down to about 28x its expected earnings, which is still pretty high. Additionally, Apple bulls are quick to remind you that growth in Apple's all-important services segment is driving their earnings and that the new iPhone should sell like hotcakes. It might not be enough, however, to justify the valuation.\nSource: Macrotrends\nApple trading for this kind of valuation it trades for is a recent development. For most of the 2010s, Apple traded closer to 10x earnings, reaching ~20x before the tech correction of 2018 took it back down. P/E ratios are based on earnings per share, which grew faster than pre-tax net income for two reasons.\n1. Trump's tax cuts in 2017. These increased corporate net income for S&P 500 companies by around 20 percent, per my calculations. The tax cuts also unlocked money that had been trapped offshore, creating a large one-time earnings boost for corporations. Apple shows a clear benefit in its financial statements from the 2017 tax cuts. This is a one-time deal. I'll be blunt – I'm more likely to date a supermodel than corporate tax rates are to be cut further with the US fiscal situation being what it is.\n2. Tim Cook's buyback program. By my calculations, Apple was able to purchase a little over 36 percent of its shares outstanding between September 2012 and their last quarterly report. This was a huge win for Apple shareholders, as the company was able to buy tons of shares on the cheap. Apple earned $3.31 per share last year. If they hadn't bought back any shares, they only would have earned $2.21 per share. The buyback alone increased Apple's earnings per share by nearly 50 percent! And what gave the buyback oxygen was Apple's low valuation for most of the 2010s, allowing them to use cash flow and low-interest debt to cheaply accumulate shares and drive EPS growth.\nWith the first tailwind being a one-time event and the second being largely ineffective with Apple's high valuation, if you're going to make a lot of money in Apple shares, you're either going to need to see Apple's net income itself grow, or its PE multiple to rise even higher. I think Apple can grow its net income by 4-5 percent annually over the next 10 years. This seems fair since net income has grown less than this since 2018. With the high valuation, the EPS isn't likely to grow much faster even with buybacks. Based on the business results of Apple and the valuation, I think you can expect a roughly 8 percent annual return by investing in Apple stock at current prices. This isn't enough for me to back up the truck on Apple, but since I've done very well in the past with Apple, the stock never really leaves my radar. What I need to buy Apple at is a price that's more agreeable to me.\nWhen to Buy Apple Stock\nMy quick and dirty method for estimating stock returns is to take earnings yield plus normalized earnings growth. Historically analysts would use dividend yield instead of earnings yield, but now buybacks are much more common than they were in the past, so it doesn't bias the model in favor of dividends. For me to be interested in Apple, I'd like to see at least double-digit expected returns, and assuming 5 percent EPS growth, Apple would need to trade for 20x earnings or less (i.e. what it normally trades for historically). This implies a price of roughly $93 based on Apple's earnings estimates for next year. Apple trades for over $122 as of my writing this article, so we have a ways to go. Apple will need to trade sideways for a couple of years or see a 25-30 percent correction to hit where I'd like to start accumulating it.\nGiven the bipolar history of Apple stock, I think that this is likely to happen at some point. After all, the stock didn't trade above $93 until July of 2020. $93 is just where I would start accumulating, by the way, I'd get more interested as the stock gets cheaper, assuming the fundamentals don't change too much.\nIf you don't want to wait for a correction in Apple, I have another idea that I executed in my portfolio. Sometimes companies own large stakes in other companies, and this can present opportunities for patient investors. Michael Burry (ofThe Big Shortfame) recently bought Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY) stock for this reason because they own part of Volkswagen and the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. After he publicly shared the idea, people started pumping a bunch of money into Porsche stock, which may or may not have corrected the mispricing (you'd have to look at the financials to know for sure). In Apple's case, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) owns a large minority stake in the company. If you pull Berkshire's 13-F, they own ~$117 billion in Apple stock as of the filing, which represents roughly 20 percent of Berkshire's market cap of ~$580 billion. Berkshire is cheaper than Apple and is tied to Apple stock by its ownership stake. I like the optionality of this trade because you get the Apple exposure essentially for free – the stake has little impact on Berkshire's EPS due to Apple's low dividend yield at the moment. If Apple goes down, I'd expect that Berkshire would be able to accumulate more stock which would help in the long run, and if Apple goes up, then it helps raise the floor on the price of Berkshire stock. There's no mechanism to force this unless Berkshire sells, but over the long run, I would expect that the economic link between the companies would be enough to create an advantage for me.\nI currently own Apple through index funds and Berkshire. If Apple and the NASDAQ continue to fall, I'll be interested in buying, but I'm watching and waiting for now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}