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2023-04-04

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2023-03-24

$小米集团-W(01810)$

2023-02-25

$英特尔(INTC)$ business shrinking....

2022-10-19

6

Market Overview | 8 consecutive board bull stocks shocked and changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and jump

2022-09-13

6

The last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?

2022-09-13

6

The last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?

2022-08-22

6

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2022-08-03

6

What is the origin geometry of "demon stock" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?

2022-08-03

6

What is the origin geometry of "demon stock" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?

2022-07-26

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2022-07-26

6

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2022-07-04

66

Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million

2022-07-04

6

Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million

2022-06-23

6

Why is the Fed afraid to save U.S. stocks?

2022-06-16

6

The "Lehman Crisis" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's hedge funds' turn!

2022-06-06

6

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2022-06-06

66

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2022-06-06

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2022-05-13

6

Hong Kong stocks open higher and move higher, Hang Seng Tech Index gains extend to 4%

2022-05-13

6

Hong Kong stocks open higher and move higher, Hang Seng Tech Index gains extend to 4%

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shrinking....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957259675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983131948,"gmtCreate":1666174654785,"gmtModify":1676537718081,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983131948","repostId":"1141641724","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141641724","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666169142,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141641724?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 16:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview | 8 consecutive board bull stocks shocked and changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and jump","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141641724","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒科指大跌逾4%，科技股重挫；沪指震荡调整跌1.19%；美股指期货、欧洲股市、原油、黄金均走低；奈飞、阿斯麦、美联航绩后大涨>>>港股港股三大指数全天呈单边下跌行情，昨日反弹上涨的市场情绪再度陷入低迷","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Hengke Index plunged more than 4%, and technology stocks plunged; The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and fell by 1.19%; US stock index futures, European stock markets, crude oil and gold all fell;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASM</a>, United Airlines rose after results>>><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The three major indices of Hong Kong stocks fell unilaterally throughout the day, and the market sentiment that rebounded and rose yesterday fell into a downturn again. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.38%, down 403 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4.19%, falling below the 3,200 point mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2694773a7c1d671f7fa8b16a222dbb92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks fell across the board, dragging down the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>fell by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>down 5.55%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Equals fell; Home appliance stocks led the decline throughout the day, with gambling stocks, sporting goods, mobile games stocks, automobile stocks, photovoltaic stocks, catering stocks and Chinese-funded brokerage stocks all widening their declines in late trading, and new energy vehicle stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>It plunged more than 9% and hit a new low. On the other hand, water stocks and online education stocks rose against the trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New Oriental Online</a>Rise over 8% performs best; Power stocks, port shipping stocks, telecom stocks are active in the weakness. Today, the net inflow of southbound funds was HK$5.417 billion, and the market turnover was HK$84.7 billion.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the GEM index was relatively strong. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.86%. Northbound funds sold 6.002 billion yuan in the whole day, which was sold for three consecutive days, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold 4.515 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold 1.488 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32883f80e36c15adabf2c7d9f6691398\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, port shipping stocks were strong throughout the day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600026\">COSCO SHIPPING Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601008\">Lianyungang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600428\">COSCO HITE</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600798\">Ningbo Shipping</a>Daily limit. Track stocks such as energy storage and lithium battery were once active, but they gradually fell back in the afternoon.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002245\">Azure lithium core</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002796\">Sega Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000049\">Desai battery</a>Wait for the daily limit. On the downside, consumer stocks adjusted collectively, with farming stocks leading the decline. Generally, individual stocks fell more than they rose, and more than 3,700 stocks in the two cities fell. Today's turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 758.4 billion, a decrease of 35.4 billion compared with the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, ports, Internet e-commerce, education, integrated die-casting and other sectors were among the top gainers, while oil and gas, chicken raising, precious metals, pet economy and other sectors were among the top losers.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002093\">Guomai Technology</a>Today, there were 8 consecutive boards, and there was an explosive change of hands. As of the close, the turnover exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate exceeded 25%. The latest total market value of Guomai Technology is 10.4 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4398a3a4c02b4fbc320d636c80e9ed99\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to fall. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 0.29%, the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.17%, and the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ed1e960f3ca0cc5ad74e87356277db\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nai Frisbee rose by more than 13% before the disk, and the net increase of 2.41 million paid subscribers in the third quarter exceeded expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASM</a>It rose 6.4% premarket, and third-quarter revenue rose 10% year-on-year to 5.778 billion euros, exceeding expectations, achieving a record net bookings of 8.9 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental Airlines</a>It rose 6.8% before the market, and third-quarter revenue rose 66.15% year-on-year to $12.877 billion, and net profit nearly doubled from the same period last year.</p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 0.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>down 0.59%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.33%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c582b9efef82807b6b41b22f0842b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $81.89/barrel, down 0.22%; Brent oil is now traded at $89.59/barrel, down 0.49%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcd29290758e89f4ac7cd049bf7491c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda1a4d514bf49d96232092b48ce4f0\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fluctuated lower, now down 0.65% at $1,645/oz.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6b633b30da26822bb36294ed6a0f71\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview | 8 consecutive board bull stocks shocked and changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and jump</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview | 8 consecutive board bull stocks shocked and changed hands! Shipping stocks buck trend and jump\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-19 16:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Hengke Index plunged more than 4%, and technology stocks plunged; The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and fell by 1.19%; US stock index futures, European stock markets, crude oil and gold all fell;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASM</a>, United Airlines rose after results>>><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The three major indices of Hong Kong stocks fell unilaterally throughout the day, and the market sentiment that rebounded and rose yesterday fell into a downturn again. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.38%, down 403 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4.19%, falling below the 3,200 point mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2694773a7c1d671f7fa8b16a222dbb92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks fell across the board, dragging down the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>fell by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>down 5.55%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Equals fell; Home appliance stocks led the decline throughout the day, with gambling stocks, sporting goods, mobile games stocks, automobile stocks, photovoltaic stocks, catering stocks and Chinese-funded brokerage stocks all widening their declines in late trading, and new energy vehicle stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>It plunged more than 9% and hit a new low. On the other hand, water stocks and online education stocks rose against the trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New Oriental Online</a>Rise over 8% performs best; Power stocks, port shipping stocks, telecom stocks are active in the weakness. Today, the net inflow of southbound funds was HK$5.417 billion, and the market turnover was HK$84.7 billion.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the GEM index was relatively strong. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.86%. Northbound funds sold 6.002 billion yuan in the whole day, which was sold for three consecutive days, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold 4.515 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold 1.488 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32883f80e36c15adabf2c7d9f6691398\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, port shipping stocks were strong throughout the day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600026\">COSCO SHIPPING Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601008\">Lianyungang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600428\">COSCO HITE</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600798\">Ningbo Shipping</a>Daily limit. Track stocks such as energy storage and lithium battery were once active, but they gradually fell back in the afternoon.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002245\">Azure lithium core</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002796\">Sega Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000049\">Desai battery</a>Wait for the daily limit. On the downside, consumer stocks adjusted collectively, with farming stocks leading the decline. Generally, individual stocks fell more than they rose, and more than 3,700 stocks in the two cities fell. Today's turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 758.4 billion, a decrease of 35.4 billion compared with the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, ports, Internet e-commerce, education, integrated die-casting and other sectors were among the top gainers, while oil and gas, chicken raising, precious metals, pet economy and other sectors were among the top losers.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002093\">Guomai Technology</a>Today, there were 8 consecutive boards, and there was an explosive change of hands. As of the close, the turnover exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate exceeded 25%. The latest total market value of Guomai Technology is 10.4 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4398a3a4c02b4fbc320d636c80e9ed99\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to fall. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 0.29%, the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.17%, and the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ed1e960f3ca0cc5ad74e87356277db\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nai Frisbee rose by more than 13% before the disk, and the net increase of 2.41 million paid subscribers in the third quarter exceeded expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASM</a>It rose 6.4% premarket, and third-quarter revenue rose 10% year-on-year to 5.778 billion euros, exceeding expectations, achieving a record net bookings of 8.9 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental Airlines</a>It rose 6.8% before the market, and third-quarter revenue rose 66.15% year-on-year to $12.877 billion, and net profit nearly doubled from the same period last year.</p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 0.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>down 0.59%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.33%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c582b9efef82807b6b41b22f0842b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $81.89/barrel, down 0.22%; Brent oil is now traded at $89.59/barrel, down 0.49%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fcd29290758e89f4ac7cd049bf7491c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda1a4d514bf49d96232092b48ce4f0\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fluctuated lower, now down 0.65% at $1,645/oz.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6b633b30da26822bb36294ed6a0f71\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399006":"创业板指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141641724","content_text":"恒科指大跌逾4%，科技股重挫；沪指震荡调整跌1.19%；美股指期货、欧洲股市、原油、黄金均走低；奈飞、阿斯麦、美联航绩后大涨>>>港股港股三大指数全天呈单边下跌行情，昨日反弹上涨的市场情绪再度陷入低迷。截止收盘，恒指跌2.38%下挫403点，恒生科技指数跌4.19%，失守3200点关口。盘面上，大型科技股全线下跌拖累大市下挫，快手-W跌超7%，美团-W跌超6%，京东集团-SW跌5.55%，阿里巴巴-SW跌超5%，腾讯控股、百度集团-SW等均下跌；家电股全天领跌，濠赌股、体育用品、手游股、汽车股、光伏股、餐饮股、中资券商股尾盘跌幅均扩大，新能源汽车股小鹏汽车-W大跌超9%再创新低。另一方面，水务股、在线教育股逆势走高，新东方在线涨超8%表现最佳；电力股、港口航运股、电信股在弱势中表现活跃。今日南下资金净流入54.17亿港元，大市成交额为847亿港元。A股大盘全天震荡调整，创业板指相对偏强。截至收盘，沪指跌1.19%，深成指跌1.43%，创业板指跌0.86%。北向资金全天净卖出60.02亿元，连续3日净卖出，其中沪股通净卖出45.15亿元，深股通净卖出14.88亿元。盘面上，港口航运股全天强势，中远海能、连云港、中远海特、宁波海运涨停。储能、锂电等赛道股一度活跃，但午后逐步回落，蔚蓝锂芯、世嘉科技、德赛电池等涨停。下跌方面，消费股集体调整，养殖股领跌。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超3700只个股下跌。沪深两市今日成交额7584亿，较上个交易日缩量354亿。板块方面，港口、互联网电商、教育、一体化压铸等板块涨幅居前，油气、养鸡、贵金属、宠物经济等板块跌幅居前。值得注意的是，国脉科技今日迎来8连板，并出现爆量换手，截至收盘，成交额超25亿元，换手率超25%。国脉科技最新总市值为104亿元。美股美股三大股指期货持续下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.29%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.17%，标普500指数期货跌0.26%。奈飞盘前大涨超13%，第三季度付费订阅用户净增241万超预期。阿斯麦盘前涨6.4%，第三季度营收同比增长10%至57.78亿欧元超预期，实现创纪录的89亿欧元的净预订量。联合大陆航空盘前涨6.8%，第三季度营收同比增长66.15%至128.77亿美元，净利润较去年同期接近翻倍。欧股欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌0.41%，英国富时100跌0.59%，法国CAC40跌0.33%。原油原油期货短线走低，截止发稿，WTI原油报81.89美元/桶，跌0.22%；布油现报89.59美元/桶，跌0.49%。黄金黄金期货震荡走低，现跌0.65%，报1645美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399006":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935802178,"gmtCreate":1663058365094,"gmtModify":1676537193549,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935802178","repostId":"1177421171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177421171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663038466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177421171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-13 11:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177421171","media":"第一财经","summary":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。","content":"<p><div>When will the radical rate hike relax when the Federal Reserve \"gathers eagles\"? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending strong policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may bring shock, its attitude against inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. The futures of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Fund show that there is little suspense in raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-13 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>When will the radical rate hike relax when the Federal Reserve \"gathers eagles\"? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending strong policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may bring shock, its attitude against inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. The futures of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Fund show that there is little suspense in raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177421171","content_text":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。因此，美股从上周中期开始企稳，政策预期进一步被消化，美联储利率基金期货显示，9月加息75基点几无悬念。随着当地时间13日美国最新通胀数据的公布，焦点将逐步转向未来美联储如何放缓政策收紧的博弈上来。美联储政策效果初现美联储主席鲍威尔上周重申了近期的强硬立场。“历史强烈警告不要过早放松政策，”他在卡托研究所第40届年度货币会议上表示。“我们将继续努力控制通胀，直到工作完成。”他的评论与美联储二号人物、副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）在纽约银行政策会议上的讲话相呼应。当时后者表示，要防范家庭和企业可能开始预期通胀在长期内保持在2%以上的风险。”随着美联储进入缄默期，市场对于本月政策前景基本达成了共识。包括高盛、美国银行和野村证券在内的多家机构将9月会议的预测从50基点上调至75基点。芝商所CME利率观察工具显示，一周后美联储历史性的75基点“三连加”概率已经升至了92%。美国汽油价格较6月高位回落近26%（来源：美国汽车协会AAA）如今近40年来最激进的加息周期正在产生效果。自6月消费者物价指数（CPI）突破9%以后，通胀见顶迹象愈加明显。资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，对于物价而言，能源价格的变动影响最大。美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，汽油平均价格已超过80天连续回落，夏季驾驶季结束对供需关系的影响有望持续释放。与此同时，美元强势对其他大宗商品的冲击也缓解终端产品的价格压力。供应链逐步恢复、需求降温下的经济放缓正在使原本紧张的消费供需环境得到缓解。最新美国采购经理人（PMI）调查显示，制造商支付价格指数降至2020年6月以来的最低水平，而服务业支付价格价格则刷新2021年1月以来新低。美国供应管理研究所（Institute for Supply Management）服务业调查委员会主席尼维斯（Anthony Nieves）表示，受访者称近期供应链、物流成本都有所改善。美国8月ISM制造业支付指数降至近27个月低位通胀预期正在逐步降温。密歇根大学消费者调查显示，8月1年期通胀预期从此前的5.2%降至4.8%，创年内新低，同时5年期通胀预期回落到2.9%，处于近一年的区间下端。与此同时，作为重要物价前景指标，美债市场一年期盈亏平衡通胀率已经降至2%以下，这也是近两年来首次低于这一水平。瑞士信贷首席美国股市策略师兼量化研究负责人戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）认为，这是通胀预期崩溃的最新迹象 ，“美联储并不是在试图控制下一次通胀指标，而是在试图控制未来12至18个月的通胀。如果预期通胀正在下降，在其他条件不变的情况下，这可能意味着政策不必过度收紧。”加息节奏何时调整从联邦基金利率期货报价看，在9月预期加息75基点后，年内剩余两次会议继续加息至少100基点的概率同样达到30%，但可能在明年3月后暂停本轮紧缩周期。这显示出，投资者对美联储年内继续鹰派立场的担忧依然存在，而随着利率达到或超过限制水平，货币政策有望迎来新窗口期。施罗斯伯格告诉第一财经，油价有助于抑制短期通胀预期，但还有其他障碍可能让美联储无法放松警惕。例如，住房、教育、医疗、交通等“核心”通胀因素的成本短期内更难控制。从美联储官员的表态看，他们似乎认为通胀降温的速度并不像预想的那样顺利。富国银行指出，美联储的通胀斗争日趋复杂化。食品、燃料价格回落的同时，粘性通胀（如公寓租金）的存在意味着未来几个月通胀道路将“崎岖不平”。该行预计，CPI将在2022年底回落到7%以下，然后在明年年底降至3.5%。这仍将远高于美联储2%的目标。当地时间13日美国公布的通胀数据有望成为美联储下一步行动的重要基准点。目前市场预期8月CPI同比增速将回落至8%，环比月率将回落0.1个百分点，为2020年5月疫情初期以来首次，不过核心CPI月率将小幅反弹。T.Rowe Price首席美国经济学家乌鲁奇（Blerina Uruci）写道：“由于基数效应，在未来两份报告中，年度核心通胀可能会加快，这将成为美联储不安的因素。他们将更加关注动能，并关注未来三个月和六个月的增速变化。同时，美联储对公众和国会的看法也很敏感，有理由保持鹰派的立场。”联合信贷银行（UniCredit Bank）认为，最新通胀数据将喜忧参半，总体上是中性的。美联储将继续观察未来的数据表现，作为政策决定的参考依据。BMO Capital Market策略师林根（Ian Lyngen）则写道，在8月CPI为75基点定价时，市场将思考，美联储将如何调整未来加息的节奏。值得注意的是，货币政策对经济的影响已经引起了美联储内部的广泛关注。美国8月PMI跌破荣枯线，房地产市场降温迹象愈发明显。鲍威尔上月在杰克逊霍尔演讲中表示，加息可能会造成“痛苦”和“持续低于趋势的增长期”。美国财长耶伦上周日表示，（经济衰退）是一个令人担忧的问题，“美联储需要高超的技能，也需要一些运气，才能实现我们有时所说的软着陆，即在保持劳动力市场强劲的同时降低通胀。”因此，外界将密切关注接下来美联储可能出现的任何政策立场变化信号。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）此前在接受第一财经记者时表示，美国个人储蓄率已经降至5%，这是2009年以来的最低水平。虽然消费者支出表现出韧性，但选择变得更为谨慎。如今经济放缓对就业市场的冲击正在显现，他预计劳动力需求和经济环境疲软将转化为2023年消费势头放缓，进而威胁软着陆的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935802309,"gmtCreate":1663058357801,"gmtModify":1676537193415,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935802309","repostId":"1177421171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177421171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663038466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177421171?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-13 11:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177421171","media":"第一财经","summary":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。","content":"<p><div>When will the radical rate hike relax when the Federal Reserve \"gathers eagles\"? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending strong policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may bring shock, its attitude against inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. The futures of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Fund show that there is little suspense in raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be released. Why is this data so critical?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-13 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>When will the radical rate hike relax when the Federal Reserve \"gathers eagles\"? Since mid-August, the Federal Reserve has been sending strong policy signals to the outside world. Although rate hike may bring shock, its attitude against inflation has not changed. For policy makers, strengthening communication with the outside world is conducive to avoiding market shocks. Therefore, U.S. stocks have stabilized since the middle of last week, and policy expectations have been further digested. The futures of the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Fund show that there is little suspense in raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September. With the release of the latest inflation data in the United States on the 13th local time, the focus will gradually turn to the game of how the Federal Reserve will slow down policy tightening in the future....</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101534146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177421171","content_text":"美联储“群鹰荟萃”，激进加息何时放松？8月中旬以来，美联储一直在向外界传递着强硬的政策信号，虽然加息可能带来冲击，但对抗通胀的态度没有改变。对于政策制定者而言，加强与外界沟通有利于避免市场冲击的发生。因此，美股从上周中期开始企稳，政策预期进一步被消化，美联储利率基金期货显示，9月加息75基点几无悬念。随着当地时间13日美国最新通胀数据的公布，焦点将逐步转向未来美联储如何放缓政策收紧的博弈上来。美联储政策效果初现美联储主席鲍威尔上周重申了近期的强硬立场。“历史强烈警告不要过早放松政策，”他在卡托研究所第40届年度货币会议上表示。“我们将继续努力控制通胀，直到工作完成。”他的评论与美联储二号人物、副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）在纽约银行政策会议上的讲话相呼应。当时后者表示，要防范家庭和企业可能开始预期通胀在长期内保持在2%以上的风险。”随着美联储进入缄默期，市场对于本月政策前景基本达成了共识。包括高盛、美国银行和野村证券在内的多家机构将9月会议的预测从50基点上调至75基点。芝商所CME利率观察工具显示，一周后美联储历史性的75基点“三连加”概率已经升至了92%。美国汽油价格较6月高位回落近26%（来源：美国汽车协会AAA）如今近40年来最激进的加息周期正在产生效果。自6月消费者物价指数（CPI）突破9%以后，通胀见顶迹象愈加明显。资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，对于物价而言，能源价格的变动影响最大。美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，汽油平均价格已超过80天连续回落，夏季驾驶季结束对供需关系的影响有望持续释放。与此同时，美元强势对其他大宗商品的冲击也缓解终端产品的价格压力。供应链逐步恢复、需求降温下的经济放缓正在使原本紧张的消费供需环境得到缓解。最新美国采购经理人（PMI）调查显示，制造商支付价格指数降至2020年6月以来的最低水平，而服务业支付价格价格则刷新2021年1月以来新低。美国供应管理研究所（Institute for Supply Management）服务业调查委员会主席尼维斯（Anthony Nieves）表示，受访者称近期供应链、物流成本都有所改善。美国8月ISM制造业支付指数降至近27个月低位通胀预期正在逐步降温。密歇根大学消费者调查显示，8月1年期通胀预期从此前的5.2%降至4.8%，创年内新低，同时5年期通胀预期回落到2.9%，处于近一年的区间下端。与此同时，作为重要物价前景指标，美债市场一年期盈亏平衡通胀率已经降至2%以下，这也是近两年来首次低于这一水平。瑞士信贷首席美国股市策略师兼量化研究负责人戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）认为，这是通胀预期崩溃的最新迹象 ，“美联储并不是在试图控制下一次通胀指标，而是在试图控制未来12至18个月的通胀。如果预期通胀正在下降，在其他条件不变的情况下，这可能意味着政策不必过度收紧。”加息节奏何时调整从联邦基金利率期货报价看，在9月预期加息75基点后，年内剩余两次会议继续加息至少100基点的概率同样达到30%，但可能在明年3月后暂停本轮紧缩周期。这显示出，投资者对美联储年内继续鹰派立场的担忧依然存在，而随着利率达到或超过限制水平，货币政策有望迎来新窗口期。施罗斯伯格告诉第一财经，油价有助于抑制短期通胀预期，但还有其他障碍可能让美联储无法放松警惕。例如，住房、教育、医疗、交通等“核心”通胀因素的成本短期内更难控制。从美联储官员的表态看，他们似乎认为通胀降温的速度并不像预想的那样顺利。富国银行指出，美联储的通胀斗争日趋复杂化。食品、燃料价格回落的同时，粘性通胀（如公寓租金）的存在意味着未来几个月通胀道路将“崎岖不平”。该行预计，CPI将在2022年底回落到7%以下，然后在明年年底降至3.5%。这仍将远高于美联储2%的目标。当地时间13日美国公布的通胀数据有望成为美联储下一步行动的重要基准点。目前市场预期8月CPI同比增速将回落至8%，环比月率将回落0.1个百分点，为2020年5月疫情初期以来首次，不过核心CPI月率将小幅反弹。T.Rowe Price首席美国经济学家乌鲁奇（Blerina Uruci）写道：“由于基数效应，在未来两份报告中，年度核心通胀可能会加快，这将成为美联储不安的因素。他们将更加关注动能，并关注未来三个月和六个月的增速变化。同时，美联储对公众和国会的看法也很敏感，有理由保持鹰派的立场。”联合信贷银行（UniCredit Bank）认为，最新通胀数据将喜忧参半，总体上是中性的。美联储将继续观察未来的数据表现，作为政策决定的参考依据。BMO Capital Market策略师林根（Ian Lyngen）则写道，在8月CPI为75基点定价时，市场将思考，美联储将如何调整未来加息的节奏。值得注意的是，货币政策对经济的影响已经引起了美联储内部的广泛关注。美国8月PMI跌破荣枯线，房地产市场降温迹象愈发明显。鲍威尔上月在杰克逊霍尔演讲中表示，加息可能会造成“痛苦”和“持续低于趋势的增长期”。美国财长耶伦上周日表示，（经济衰退）是一个令人担忧的问题，“美联储需要高超的技能，也需要一些运气，才能实现我们有时所说的软着陆，即在保持劳动力市场强劲的同时降低通胀。”因此，外界将密切关注接下来美联储可能出现的任何政策立场变化信号。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）此前在接受第一财经记者时表示，美国个人储蓄率已经降至5%，这是2009年以来的最低水平。虽然消费者支出表现出韧性，但选择变得更为谨慎。如今经济放缓对就业市场的冲击正在显现，他预计劳动力需求和经济环境疲软将转化为2023年消费势头放缓，进而威胁软着陆的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996871968,"gmtCreate":1661152062656,"gmtModify":1676536462910,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996871968","repostId":"1141625467","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906121703,"gmtCreate":1659499466404,"gmtModify":1705981045032,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906121703","repostId":"2256670674","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2256670674","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659488233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256670674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 08:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the origin geometry of \"demon stock\" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256670674","media":"大摩财经","summary":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.43","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized stock that few people pay attention to has set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after listing, its share price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded 310 billion USD.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Choi Chi Kin<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shang multiplied numbers</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14th, with an issue price of US$7.8, and raised US$143.5 million after green shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States this year.</p><p>After listing, Shangcheng Digital unexpectedly came out of the strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1st was USD 742, 94 times higher than the issue price. On August 2nd, the closing price of Shangcheng Digital was $1,679, and its market value exceeded $310 billion. US-listed Chinese concept leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value on that day was about $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the total share capital of Shangcheng Digital Branch is 74.01 million shares, but there are only 8.37 million shares outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demon \"demon stock\" in the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa in 2003, and new shareholders were introduced in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asian Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family ceased to participate in its daily management operations. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman born in investment banking, became the de facto controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, Shangcheng Group has launched its business layout around IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" represents investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" represents the digital finance sector (Shangcheng Digital Branch), \"E\" represents the education side, and \"A\" represents real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments for listing, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>It was listed on the NYSE in August 2019 and listed on the NYSE in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights of the same shares.</p><p>Founded in 2019, AMTD Digital was acquired by AMTD International for $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition, Shangcheng International owns 97.1% equity of Shangcheng Digital, and the former also renamed its stock abbreviation to Shangcheng IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As at the end of 2021, AMTD Group held 50.6% equity interest in AMTD International, Infinity Power Investments Limited, a wholly-owned company owned by Tsai Chi Kin, held 32.5% equity interest,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holds 5.8% of shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International, and the equity of AMTD Group is not disclosed. According to the contents of the prospectus, it is only known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the share price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2nd, hitting an all-time high of $12.89 in the intraday session. As of 23: 00 on August 2nd, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, and the latest market value was about $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And other company positions. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, he participated in two projects, which were investigated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong due to conflict of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had committed two illegal acts, namely disclosure and fair treatment and conflict of interest, and issued a penalty decision of banning him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian subsequently filed an application for review and a closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. At present, the case is pending trial, and the ban has not taken effect yet. The formal hearing will be held in public between December 12 and 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have been low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian left Hong Kong this year suspected of dodging debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1st, the rolling P/E of Shangcheng Digital has reached 5,992 times. Can the fundamentals of Shang Multiplier Digital support such a valuation?</p><p>By contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than nine times and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, Shangcheng Digital is overestimated by more than a star and a half. From FY2019 to FY2021 (as of April 30 of that year), the revenue of Shangcheng Digital was HK$15 million, HK$167.5 million and HK$195.8 million, respectively; Profit (including changes in fair value of financial assets) for the same period was HK$22 million, HK$158 million and HK$172 million, respectively. In the ten-month period from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, Shangcheng Digital recorded revenue of HK$168 million and net profit of HK$187 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5%, respectively.</p><p>Amplifier Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide insurance and digital banking services to customers. The \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" repeatedly emphasized by Shang Multiple Digital is actually only the insurance brokerage license, which can carry out insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining several financial assets and licenses still need to wait for the approval of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, SpiderNet Ecosystem Solutions, provides paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet Ecosystem and its prominent corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant areas of expertise by partnering with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business does not seem to be much different from ordinary investment bank think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of the two major businesses of Shangcheng Digital has slowed down significantly. For the first ten months from FY2019 to FY2022, revenue from the digital financial services business was HK$8.671 million, HK$9.869 million, HK$11.721 million and HK$10.088 million, respectively. During the same period, profits were HK$1.863 million, HK$4.765 million, HK$1.084 million and HK$1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal 2022, the revenue and profit of digital financial services business both declined year-on-year, with the profit decline reaching 18%, much larger than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>During the first ten months of FY2019 to FY2022, the Spider Web Ecosystem Solutions business of AMTD Digital recorded revenue of HK$5.88 million, HK$158 million, HK$184 million and HK$157 million, respectively, and profit of HK$1.95 million, HK$140 million, HK$144 million and HK$117 million.<b>Although this part of the business maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal 2022, it fell into a situation of increasing revenue without increasing profit, and the current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the origin geometry of \"demon stock\" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the origin geometry of \"demon stock\" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">大摩财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-03 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized stock that few people pay attention to has set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after listing, its share price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded 310 billion USD.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Choi Chi Kin<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shang multiplied numbers</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14th, with an issue price of US$7.8, and raised US$143.5 million after green shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States this year.</p><p>After listing, Shangcheng Digital unexpectedly came out of the strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1st was USD 742, 94 times higher than the issue price. On August 2nd, the closing price of Shangcheng Digital was $1,679, and its market value exceeded $310 billion. US-listed Chinese concept leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value on that day was about $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the total share capital of Shangcheng Digital Branch is 74.01 million shares, but there are only 8.37 million shares outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demon \"demon stock\" in the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa in 2003, and new shareholders were introduced in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asian Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family ceased to participate in its daily management operations. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman born in investment banking, became the de facto controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, Shangcheng Group has launched its business layout around IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" represents investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" represents the digital finance sector (Shangcheng Digital Branch), \"E\" represents the education side, and \"A\" represents real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments for listing, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>It was listed on the NYSE in August 2019 and listed on the NYSE in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights of the same shares.</p><p>Founded in 2019, AMTD Digital was acquired by AMTD International for $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition, Shangcheng International owns 97.1% equity of Shangcheng Digital, and the former also renamed its stock abbreviation to Shangcheng IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As at the end of 2021, AMTD Group held 50.6% equity interest in AMTD International, Infinity Power Investments Limited, a wholly-owned company owned by Tsai Chi Kin, held 32.5% equity interest,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holds 5.8% of shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International, and the equity of AMTD Group is not disclosed. According to the contents of the prospectus, it is only known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the share price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2nd, hitting an all-time high of $12.89 in the intraday session. As of 23: 00 on August 2nd, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, and the latest market value was about $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And other company positions. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, he participated in two projects, which were investigated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong due to conflict of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had committed two illegal acts, namely disclosure and fair treatment and conflict of interest, and issued a penalty decision of banning him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian subsequently filed an application for review and a closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. At present, the case is pending trial, and the ban has not taken effect yet. The formal hearing will be held in public between December 12 and 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have been low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian left Hong Kong this year suspected of dodging debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1st, the rolling P/E of Shangcheng Digital has reached 5,992 times. Can the fundamentals of Shang Multiplier Digital support such a valuation?</p><p>By contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than nine times and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, Shangcheng Digital is overestimated by more than a star and a half. From FY2019 to FY2021 (as of April 30 of that year), the revenue of Shangcheng Digital was HK$15 million, HK$167.5 million and HK$195.8 million, respectively; Profit (including changes in fair value of financial assets) for the same period was HK$22 million, HK$158 million and HK$172 million, respectively. In the ten-month period from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, Shangcheng Digital recorded revenue of HK$168 million and net profit of HK$187 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5%, respectively.</p><p>Amplifier Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide insurance and digital banking services to customers. The \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" repeatedly emphasized by Shang Multiple Digital is actually only the insurance brokerage license, which can carry out insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining several financial assets and licenses still need to wait for the approval of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, SpiderNet Ecosystem Solutions, provides paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet Ecosystem and its prominent corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant areas of expertise by partnering with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business does not seem to be much different from ordinary investment bank think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of the two major businesses of Shangcheng Digital has slowed down significantly. For the first ten months from FY2019 to FY2022, revenue from the digital financial services business was HK$8.671 million, HK$9.869 million, HK$11.721 million and HK$10.088 million, respectively. During the same period, profits were HK$1.863 million, HK$4.765 million, HK$1.084 million and HK$1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal 2022, the revenue and profit of digital financial services business both declined year-on-year, with the profit decline reaching 18%, much larger than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>During the first ten months of FY2019 to FY2022, the Spider Web Ecosystem Solutions business of AMTD Digital recorded revenue of HK$5.88 million, HK$158 million, HK$184 million and HK$157 million, respectively, and profit of HK$1.95 million, HK$140 million, HK$144 million and HK$117 million.<b>Although this part of the business maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal 2022, it fell into a situation of increasing revenue without increasing profit, and the current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b\">大摩财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675f5186f47a5ae9453d9922f4bd33f5","relate_stocks":{"HKD":"尚乘数科","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2256670674","content_text":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.435亿美元，是年内最大的中概股在美IPO项目。上市后，尚乘数科意外走出强势上涨行情，连续多个交易日涨幅超过100%，8月1日收盘价742美元，相比发行价上涨94倍。8月2日，尚乘数科收盘价1679美元，市值最高突破3100亿美元。美国上市的中概龙头阿里巴巴当日市值约2400亿美元。值得一提的是，尚乘数科总股本7401万股，但流通股只有837万股，占比约11.3%。上市以后每日交易量只有几十万股。年内最妖的“妖股”尚乘数科是尚乘集团旗下的一家数字金融公司。尚乘集团最早由李嘉诚的长江实业、和记黄埔于2003年创立，2014年引入新股东摩根士丹利亚洲私募股权投资基金（MSPE）后，李氏家族不再参与其日常管理营运。投行出身的香港商人蔡志坚成为尚乘集团的实际控制人。公开资料显示，尚乘集团围绕IDEA战略展开业务布局，其中”I”代表投资银行及传统金融，“D”即数字金融板块（尚乘数科），“E”是教育方，”A”则地产及酒店。最近几年，尚乘集团不断拆分旗下业务板块上市，其中尚乘国际于2019年8月登陆纽交所，并在2020年在新加坡交易所二次上市，是新加坡第一家同股不同权的上市公司。尚乘数科成立于2019年，2022年初被尚乘国际斥资12亿美元收购。收购完成后，尚乘国际拥有尚乘数科97.1%股权，前者也将股票简称更名为尚乘IDEA集团。截至2021年底，AMTD集团持有尚乘国际50.6%股权，蔡志坚独资的Infinity Power Investments Limited 持股32.5%，世纪城市国际持股5.8%。根据招股书，Infinity Power Investments Limited是尚乘国际最大单一股东，AMTD集团股权并未披露，根据招股书内容，仅可以知道其董事会成员包括蔡志坚。值得一提的是，尚乘IDEA集团（原来的尚乘国际）在8月2日股价大幅上涨，盘中触及12.89美元的历史高点，截至8月2日23时，尚乘IDEA集团涨幅约300%，最新市值在31亿美元左右。现年44岁的蔡志坚，曾在普华永道、瑞银等公司任职。2014年至2015年，蔡志坚在瑞银工作期间，参与的两个项目，由于存在利益冲突及信息披露问题，遭到香港证监会调查。2022年1月，香港证监会向蔡志坚发出《决定通知书》，裁定蔡志坚有披露及公平对待、利益冲突两项违法行为，并对其做出禁业两年的处罚决定。蔡志坚随后提出了复核申请，并提出了闭门聆讯申请。不过，蔡志坚的闭门聆讯申请并没有通过，目前该案尚待审理，禁令暂未生效，正式聆讯将在2022年12月12日至16日间公开举行。2019年，蔡志坚曾被中民投追债，并被指控金融诈骗。此后，蔡志坚行踪趋于低调。财新引述知情人士消息称，蔡志坚今年疑似为躲债而离开香港，2022年3月至4月期间，曾身处新加坡。泡沫有多大？8月1日收盘后，尚乘数科的滚动市盈率已经达到5992倍。尚乘数科的基本面能撑起这样的估值吗？作为对比的是，标普500指数平均市盈率不到20倍，美国金融巨头摩根大通市盈率不到9倍，摩根士丹利市盈率为10.7倍。相比国际巨头，尚乘数科被高估了不止一星半点。2019财年至2021财年（截至当年4月30日），尚乘数科营收分别为0.15亿港元、1.675亿港元和1.958亿港元；同期利润（包括金融资产公允价值的变动）分别为0.22亿港元、1.58亿港元和1.72亿港元。在2021年5月至2021年2月底的十个月内，尚乘数科营收为1.68亿港元，净利润为1.87亿港元，同比分别增长3.7%和65.5%。尚乘数科主要有两大业务线，即数字金融服务和蛛网生态系统解决方案。其中，数字金融服务主要为客户提供保险和数字银行业务。尚乘数科一再强调的“亚洲最稀缺的数字金融牌照”实际落实的只有保险经纪牌照，可以在新加坡和香港进行保险经纪业务。其余的几个金融资产和牌照，还需要等待新加坡金融监管局的批准。另一大业务线蛛网生态系统解决方案，则是为付费会员提供独家访问AMTD SpiderNet生态系统及其著名的企业成员、杰出的企业高管和合作伙伴的机会。同时，该业务通过与行业领袖和学术机构合作，提供相关专业领域的支持。简单梳理一下，这个业务与一般的投行智库，似乎没有太大区别。值得一提的是，尚乘数科两大业务增速已经明显放缓。2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收分别为867.1万港元、986.9万港元、1172.1万港元和1008.8万港元。同期，利润为186.3万港元、476.5万港元108.4万港元和108.9万港元。2022财年前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收和利润都出现了同比下滑，其中利润下滑幅度达到18%，远大于营收下滑的2.74%。在2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，尚乘数科的蛛网生态系统解决方案业务营收分别为588万港元、1.58亿港元、1.84亿港元和1.57亿港元，利润为195万港元、1.4亿港元、1.44亿港元和1.17亿港元。这部分业务在2022财年十个月虽然保持了营收增长，但却陷入增收不增利的局面中，当期利润同比下滑2.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HKD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906121413,"gmtCreate":1659499460335,"gmtModify":1705981044870,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906121413","repostId":"2256670674","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2256670674","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659488233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256670674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 08:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the origin geometry of \"demon stock\" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256670674","media":"大摩财经","summary":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.43","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized stock that few people pay attention to has set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after listing, its share price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded 310 billion USD.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Choi Chi Kin<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shang multiplied numbers</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14th, with an issue price of US$7.8, and raised US$143.5 million after green shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States this year.</p><p>After listing, Shangcheng Digital unexpectedly came out of the strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1st was USD 742, 94 times higher than the issue price. On August 2nd, the closing price of Shangcheng Digital was $1,679, and its market value exceeded $310 billion. US-listed Chinese concept leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value on that day was about $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the total share capital of Shangcheng Digital Branch is 74.01 million shares, but there are only 8.37 million shares outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demon \"demon stock\" in the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa in 2003, and new shareholders were introduced in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asian Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family ceased to participate in its daily management operations. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman born in investment banking, became the de facto controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, Shangcheng Group has launched its business layout around IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" represents investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" represents the digital finance sector (Shangcheng Digital Branch), \"E\" represents the education side, and \"A\" represents real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments for listing, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>It was listed on the NYSE in August 2019 and listed on the NYSE in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights of the same shares.</p><p>Founded in 2019, AMTD Digital was acquired by AMTD International for $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition, Shangcheng International owns 97.1% equity of Shangcheng Digital, and the former also renamed its stock abbreviation to Shangcheng IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As at the end of 2021, AMTD Group held 50.6% equity interest in AMTD International, Infinity Power Investments Limited, a wholly-owned company owned by Tsai Chi Kin, held 32.5% equity interest,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holds 5.8% of shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International, and the equity of AMTD Group is not disclosed. According to the contents of the prospectus, it is only known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the share price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2nd, hitting an all-time high of $12.89 in the intraday session. As of 23: 00 on August 2nd, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, and the latest market value was about $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And other company positions. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, he participated in two projects, which were investigated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong due to conflict of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had committed two illegal acts, namely disclosure and fair treatment and conflict of interest, and issued a penalty decision of banning him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian subsequently filed an application for review and a closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. At present, the case is pending trial, and the ban has not taken effect yet. The formal hearing will be held in public between December 12 and 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have been low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian left Hong Kong this year suspected of dodging debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1st, the rolling P/E of Shangcheng Digital has reached 5,992 times. Can the fundamentals of Shang Multiplier Digital support such a valuation?</p><p>By contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than nine times and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, Shangcheng Digital is overestimated by more than a star and a half. From FY2019 to FY2021 (as of April 30 of that year), the revenue of Shangcheng Digital was HK$15 million, HK$167.5 million and HK$195.8 million, respectively; Profit (including changes in fair value of financial assets) for the same period was HK$22 million, HK$158 million and HK$172 million, respectively. In the ten-month period from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, Shangcheng Digital recorded revenue of HK$168 million and net profit of HK$187 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5%, respectively.</p><p>Amplifier Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide insurance and digital banking services to customers. The \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" repeatedly emphasized by Shang Multiple Digital is actually only the insurance brokerage license, which can carry out insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining several financial assets and licenses still need to wait for the approval of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, SpiderNet Ecosystem Solutions, provides paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet Ecosystem and its prominent corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant areas of expertise by partnering with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business does not seem to be much different from ordinary investment bank think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of the two major businesses of Shangcheng Digital has slowed down significantly. For the first ten months from FY2019 to FY2022, revenue from the digital financial services business was HK$8.671 million, HK$9.869 million, HK$11.721 million and HK$10.088 million, respectively. During the same period, profits were HK$1.863 million, HK$4.765 million, HK$1.084 million and HK$1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal 2022, the revenue and profit of digital financial services business both declined year-on-year, with the profit decline reaching 18%, much larger than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>During the first ten months of FY2019 to FY2022, the Spider Web Ecosystem Solutions business of AMTD Digital recorded revenue of HK$5.88 million, HK$158 million, HK$184 million and HK$157 million, respectively, and profit of HK$1.95 million, HK$140 million, HK$144 million and HK$117 million.<b>Although this part of the business maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal 2022, it fell into a situation of increasing revenue without increasing profit, and the current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the origin geometry of \"demon stock\" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the origin geometry of \"demon stock\" still multiplied by numbers? How big is the bubble?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">大摩财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-03 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A small and medium-sized stock that few people pay attention to has set off a \"demon wind\" in the Wall Street market: half a month after listing, its share price rose 215 times, and its market value exceeded 310 billion USD.</p><p>Controlled by Hong Kong businessman Choi Chi Kin<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shang multiplied numbers</a>It landed on the U.S. stock market on July 14th, with an issue price of US$7.8, and raised US$143.5 million after green shoes. It is the largest IPO project of Chinese concept stocks in the United States this year.</p><p>After listing, Shangcheng Digital unexpectedly came out of the strong rising market, with an increase of more than 100% for several consecutive trading days. The closing price on August 1st was USD 742, 94 times higher than the issue price. On August 2nd, the closing price of Shangcheng Digital was $1,679, and its market value exceeded $310 billion. US-listed Chinese concept leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The market value on that day was about $240 billion.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the total share capital of Shangcheng Digital Branch is 74.01 million shares, but there are only 8.37 million shares outstanding, accounting for about 11.3%. After listing, the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand shares.</b></p><p><b>The most demon \"demon stock\" in the year</b></p><p>AMTD Digital is a digital finance company under AMTD Group. AMTD Group was first founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa in 2003, and new shareholders were introduced in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After the Asian Private Equity Investment Fund (MSPE), the Lee family ceased to participate in its daily management operations. Cai Zhijian, a Hong Kong businessman born in investment banking, became the de facto controller of AMTD Group.</p><p>According to public information, Shangcheng Group has launched its business layout around IDEA strategy, in which \"I\" represents investment banking and traditional finance, \"D\" represents the digital finance sector (Shangcheng Digital Branch), \"E\" represents the education side, and \"A\" represents real estate and hotels.</p><p>In recent years, AMTD Group has continuously split its business segments for listing, among which<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>It was listed on the NYSE in August 2019 and listed on the NYSE in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">Singapore Exchange</a>Secondary listing, is the first listed company in Singapore with different rights of the same shares.</p><p>Founded in 2019, AMTD Digital was acquired by AMTD International for $1.2 billion in early 2022. After the acquisition, Shangcheng International owns 97.1% equity of Shangcheng Digital, and the former also renamed its stock abbreviation to Shangcheng IDEA Group.</p><p><b>As at the end of 2021, AMTD Group held 50.6% equity interest in AMTD International, Infinity Power Investments Limited, a wholly-owned company owned by Tsai Chi Kin, held 32.5% equity interest,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00355\">Century City International</a>Holds 5.8% of shares. According to the prospectus, Infinity Power Investments Limited is the largest single shareholder of AMTD International, and the equity of AMTD Group is not disclosed. According to the contents of the prospectus, it is only known that its board members include Cai Zhijian.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9330f70732bcf7f381d1ac52029f9d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is worth mentioning that the share price of AMTD IDEA Group (formerly AMTD International) rose sharply on August 2nd, hitting an all-time high of $12.89 in the intraday session. As of 23: 00 on August 2nd, AMTD IDEA Group rose by about 300%, and the latest market value was about $3.1 billion.</p><p>Cai Zhijian, 44, worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And other company positions. From 2014 to 2015, when Cai Zhijian worked at UBS, he participated in two projects, which were investigated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong due to conflict of interest and information disclosure issues. In January 2022, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issued a \"Notice of Decision\" to Cai Zhijian, ruling that Cai Zhijian had committed two illegal acts, namely disclosure and fair treatment and conflict of interest, and issued a penalty decision of banning him from business for two years. Cai Zhijian subsequently filed an application for review and a closed-door hearing.</p><p>However, Cai Zhijian's application for a closed-door hearing has not been passed. At present, the case is pending trial, and the ban has not taken effect yet. The formal hearing will be held in public between December 12 and 16, 2022.</p><p>In 2019, Cai Zhijian was collected by CMIG and accused of financial fraud. Since then, Cai Zhijian's whereabouts have been low-key. Caixin quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cai Zhijian left Hong Kong this year suspected of dodging debts and was in Singapore from March to April 2022.</p><p><b>How big is the bubble?</b></p><p>After the market closed on August 1st, the rolling P/E of Shangcheng Digital has reached 5,992 times. Can the fundamentals of Shang Multiplier Digital support such a valuation?</p><p>By contrast, the average P/E of the S&P 500 is less than 20 times, and the U.S. financial giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>P/E is less than nine times and Morgan Stanley P/E is 10.7 times.</p><p>Compared with international giants, Shangcheng Digital is overestimated by more than a star and a half. From FY2019 to FY2021 (as of April 30 of that year), the revenue of Shangcheng Digital was HK$15 million, HK$167.5 million and HK$195.8 million, respectively; Profit (including changes in fair value of financial assets) for the same period was HK$22 million, HK$158 million and HK$172 million, respectively. In the ten-month period from May 2021 to the end of February 2021, Shangcheng Digital recorded revenue of HK$168 million and net profit of HK$187 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 65.5%, respectively.</p><p>Amplifier Digital mainly has two business lines, namely digital financial services and cobweb ecosystem solutions. Among them, digital financial services mainly provide insurance and digital banking services to customers. The \"scarcest digital financial license in Asia\" repeatedly emphasized by Shang Multiple Digital is actually only the insurance brokerage license, which can carry out insurance brokerage business in Singapore and Hong Kong. The remaining several financial assets and licenses still need to wait for the approval of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Singapore.</p><p>Another major business line, SpiderNet Ecosystem Solutions, provides paid members with exclusive access to the AMTD SpiderNet Ecosystem and its prominent corporate members, outstanding corporate executives and partners. At the same time, the business provides support in relevant areas of expertise by partnering with industry leaders and academic institutions. To sort it out briefly, this business does not seem to be much different from ordinary investment bank think tanks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of the two major businesses of Shangcheng Digital has slowed down significantly. For the first ten months from FY2019 to FY2022, revenue from the digital financial services business was HK$8.671 million, HK$9.869 million, HK$11.721 million and HK$10.088 million, respectively. During the same period, profits were HK$1.863 million, HK$4.765 million, HK$1.084 million and HK$1.089 million.<b>In the first ten months of fiscal 2022, the revenue and profit of digital financial services business both declined year-on-year, with the profit decline reaching 18%, much larger than the 2.74% decline in revenue.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca72e2d599028c697449c8c68834fa9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>During the first ten months of FY2019 to FY2022, the Spider Web Ecosystem Solutions business of AMTD Digital recorded revenue of HK$5.88 million, HK$158 million, HK$184 million and HK$157 million, respectively, and profit of HK$1.95 million, HK$140 million, HK$144 million and HK$117 million.<b>Although this part of the business maintained revenue growth in the ten months of fiscal 2022, it fell into a situation of increasing revenue without increasing profit, and the current profit fell by 2.5% year-on-year.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b\">大摩财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675f5186f47a5ae9453d9922f4bd33f5","relate_stocks":{"HKD":"尚乘数科","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202208030000308211275e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2256670674","content_text":"一家少有人注意的中小型中概股，在华尔街市场掀起一股“妖风”：上市半个月，股价上涨215倍，市值突破3100亿美元。香港商人蔡志坚控制的尚乘数科于7月14日登陆美股，发行价7.8美元，绿鞋后募资1.435亿美元，是年内最大的中概股在美IPO项目。上市后，尚乘数科意外走出强势上涨行情，连续多个交易日涨幅超过100%，8月1日收盘价742美元，相比发行价上涨94倍。8月2日，尚乘数科收盘价1679美元，市值最高突破3100亿美元。美国上市的中概龙头阿里巴巴当日市值约2400亿美元。值得一提的是，尚乘数科总股本7401万股，但流通股只有837万股，占比约11.3%。上市以后每日交易量只有几十万股。年内最妖的“妖股”尚乘数科是尚乘集团旗下的一家数字金融公司。尚乘集团最早由李嘉诚的长江实业、和记黄埔于2003年创立，2014年引入新股东摩根士丹利亚洲私募股权投资基金（MSPE）后，李氏家族不再参与其日常管理营运。投行出身的香港商人蔡志坚成为尚乘集团的实际控制人。公开资料显示，尚乘集团围绕IDEA战略展开业务布局，其中”I”代表投资银行及传统金融，“D”即数字金融板块（尚乘数科），“E”是教育方，”A”则地产及酒店。最近几年，尚乘集团不断拆分旗下业务板块上市，其中尚乘国际于2019年8月登陆纽交所，并在2020年在新加坡交易所二次上市，是新加坡第一家同股不同权的上市公司。尚乘数科成立于2019年，2022年初被尚乘国际斥资12亿美元收购。收购完成后，尚乘国际拥有尚乘数科97.1%股权，前者也将股票简称更名为尚乘IDEA集团。截至2021年底，AMTD集团持有尚乘国际50.6%股权，蔡志坚独资的Infinity Power Investments Limited 持股32.5%，世纪城市国际持股5.8%。根据招股书，Infinity Power Investments Limited是尚乘国际最大单一股东，AMTD集团股权并未披露，根据招股书内容，仅可以知道其董事会成员包括蔡志坚。值得一提的是，尚乘IDEA集团（原来的尚乘国际）在8月2日股价大幅上涨，盘中触及12.89美元的历史高点，截至8月2日23时，尚乘IDEA集团涨幅约300%，最新市值在31亿美元左右。现年44岁的蔡志坚，曾在普华永道、瑞银等公司任职。2014年至2015年，蔡志坚在瑞银工作期间，参与的两个项目，由于存在利益冲突及信息披露问题，遭到香港证监会调查。2022年1月，香港证监会向蔡志坚发出《决定通知书》，裁定蔡志坚有披露及公平对待、利益冲突两项违法行为，并对其做出禁业两年的处罚决定。蔡志坚随后提出了复核申请，并提出了闭门聆讯申请。不过，蔡志坚的闭门聆讯申请并没有通过，目前该案尚待审理，禁令暂未生效，正式聆讯将在2022年12月12日至16日间公开举行。2019年，蔡志坚曾被中民投追债，并被指控金融诈骗。此后，蔡志坚行踪趋于低调。财新引述知情人士消息称，蔡志坚今年疑似为躲债而离开香港，2022年3月至4月期间，曾身处新加坡。泡沫有多大？8月1日收盘后，尚乘数科的滚动市盈率已经达到5992倍。尚乘数科的基本面能撑起这样的估值吗？作为对比的是，标普500指数平均市盈率不到20倍，美国金融巨头摩根大通市盈率不到9倍，摩根士丹利市盈率为10.7倍。相比国际巨头，尚乘数科被高估了不止一星半点。2019财年至2021财年（截至当年4月30日），尚乘数科营收分别为0.15亿港元、1.675亿港元和1.958亿港元；同期利润（包括金融资产公允价值的变动）分别为0.22亿港元、1.58亿港元和1.72亿港元。在2021年5月至2021年2月底的十个月内，尚乘数科营收为1.68亿港元，净利润为1.87亿港元，同比分别增长3.7%和65.5%。尚乘数科主要有两大业务线，即数字金融服务和蛛网生态系统解决方案。其中，数字金融服务主要为客户提供保险和数字银行业务。尚乘数科一再强调的“亚洲最稀缺的数字金融牌照”实际落实的只有保险经纪牌照，可以在新加坡和香港进行保险经纪业务。其余的几个金融资产和牌照，还需要等待新加坡金融监管局的批准。另一大业务线蛛网生态系统解决方案，则是为付费会员提供独家访问AMTD SpiderNet生态系统及其著名的企业成员、杰出的企业高管和合作伙伴的机会。同时，该业务通过与行业领袖和学术机构合作，提供相关专业领域的支持。简单梳理一下，这个业务与一般的投行智库，似乎没有太大区别。值得一提的是，尚乘数科两大业务增速已经明显放缓。2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收分别为867.1万港元、986.9万港元、1172.1万港元和1008.8万港元。同期，利润为186.3万港元、476.5万港元108.4万港元和108.9万港元。2022财年前十个月，数字金融服务业务营收和利润都出现了同比下滑，其中利润下滑幅度达到18%，远大于营收下滑的2.74%。在2019财年至2022财年的前十个月，尚乘数科的蛛网生态系统解决方案业务营收分别为588万港元、1.58亿港元、1.84亿港元和1.57亿港元，利润为195万港元、1.4亿港元、1.44亿港元和1.17亿港元。这部分业务在2022财年十个月虽然保持了营收增长，但却陷入增收不增利的局面中，当期利润同比下滑2.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HKD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909148235,"gmtCreate":1658839554727,"gmtModify":1676536215223,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909148235","repostId":"1124135125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909148129,"gmtCreate":1658839540261,"gmtModify":1676536215214,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909148129","repostId":"1124135125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047533208,"gmtCreate":1656940303604,"gmtModify":1676535918906,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047533208","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Forcing the Air War\" that everyone on earth knew about finally came to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Qingshan Group retreated unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut his meat and lost 120 million dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>On June 29th news, Tsingshan Holding Group safely exited most of the short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of the positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two sides. Tsingshan Group has left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars is far from enough.</p><p>Friends who pay attention to this matter may still be \"dumbfounded\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What has really happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Aoyama counter-kills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly comb the whole process of the Lun Ni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lun nickel futures soared from $29,000/ton to $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8th, Lun Nickel futures rose from USD 60,000/ton to USD 100,000/ton, and the whole process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8: 15 on March 8th (UK time), LME suspended the trading of all nickel contracts and cancelled the trading after 0: 00 on March 8th, commonly known as \"pulling the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9th, Xiang Guangda admitted that he was forced short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot through various channels.</p><p>On March 15th, Qingshan Group said it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of creditors of futures banks. During this period, the position of Tsingshan will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its position thereafter.</p><p>On March 16th, nickel trading resumed on LME.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan exited most of its short nickel positions in LME, and the event ended.</p><p>Reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has raised itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Qingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin. The product delivered by Lunjin is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high ice nickel and about 10% ferronickel. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Qingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures empty orders, but the nickel inventory of the whole Lunjin Institute was only 80,000 tons, which means that even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Institute, it couldn't make up half of its futures empty orders. 3. Usually, Qingshan Group will buy nickel with Russia to close its position when it encounters the delivery period. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel has been embargo. Tsingshan Group did not react to this news in time. To sum up, although Qingshan Group has a rich family, it has played out all the good cards at this card table, with only \"1 vs. 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this case, how could the naturally bloodthirsty Wall Street capital let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7th and March 8th, quickly raising the price of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, which incidentally broke \"the highest record of any kind of asset price fluctuation.\"</p><p>At that time, the situation was that Qingshan Group had to lose hundreds of billions of dollars if it couldn't get the goods, and if it had no money, it had to sell Indonesia's nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese enterprises worked so hard to establish would be hit hard.</p><p>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others.</p><p>Although it was unknown who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Qingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high ice nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>From the gossip, at that time, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement, which can be described as united. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I have received many calls, and the relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why is the final result not that Qingshan Group takes out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and gives them to Wall Street takeover men, so that they have nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they can only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic enterprises do when so much nickel is handed over? Do all enterprises stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced and then resume production?</p><p>Although doing this was very relieving, the price to pay was too high.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\" with the confidence of being able to produce 200,000 tons of delivered products.</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29th, Qingshan Group reduced its short position to turn itself around. Although Wall Street institutions lost a little money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is really behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Qingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Pressing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve no less funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes, in order to get Qingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mine. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest Swiss enterprise with operating income of $215.11 billion, covering the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money on its own. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan sold it out long ago with its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a $120 million loss in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>It can make the old Wall Street investment banks lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short-squeezing\" incident in March, it is difficult to have other reasons to convince people. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Qingshan Group's large number of short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, about 50,000 tons of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase was mired in a $120 million loss.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter and we're going to try to get through it. We're going to do an ex post analysis of what we did wrong and what different things we could do after LME.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>One, they are doing things for their customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin's behavior of \"pulling the network cable\", and perhaps they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what steps JPMorgan will take, but someone has already started to act. They don't seem to throw in the towel and are still doing the final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/Visual China</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6th, on June 1st, the famous American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that Lunkin's \"cancellation of the transaction after 00: 00 UK time on March 8th, 2022 was illegal.\"</p><p>Two of Elliott's hedge funds have sued HKEx and its subsidiary LME and its clearing firm LME Clear Limite to the British High Court for a claim of about $456 million, or about RMB 3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977 and with a fund under management of over $51.5 billion at the end of 2021, Elliott Management is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive and fierce investment style.</p><p>How fierce is Elliot really? It can make a nation unsettled.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changed in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion US dollars was unable to be repaid. Just as other financial institutions avoided it, Elliott bargained the Argentine Treasury Bond for $617 million.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. Creditors led by Elliott mercilessly refused twice and sued Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this trick is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande now that creditors disagree with Evergrande's reorganization.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle, and Elliott made 3.7 times this single, but every penny was hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>Exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter is unclear. If Elliott can win the case with the HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out in full force.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinched Musk's life door? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, Glencore officials said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates is that the competition for metallic nickel has entered a white-hot stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is high nickel and ultra-high nickel batteries, this proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, which makes it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem for new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>The data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of LME continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliveries are bought in large quantities for manufacturing new energy batteries. The shortfalls for nickel are expected to be-25,600 tonnes, -27,900 tonnes, and-65,300 tonnes from 2023 to 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this God holding a rice bowl to feed Xiang Guangda?</p><p>In 1958, Xiang Guangda was born in a family of ordinary workers in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Due to the emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with China First Automobile Wheel Factory, and invested 24 million yuan to set up \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, which officially entered the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the whole steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-ore heating furnace (RKEF) smelting technology, and led a team to develop a new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace double method, which cut the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton cost.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel. Who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the right to mining laterite nickel ore with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, the first nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China. Qingshan Holding Group has also conquered the technology of purifying high-ice nickel with laterite nickel ore. With one operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, stainless steel is not worried. Qingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Qingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to 10 million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holding Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500. According to Tianyan, Xiang Guangda occupies 48.45% of the equity of Qingshan Holding Group through various paths, and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Ownership Structure of Tsingshan Holdings/Screenshot of Tianyan Check</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, and new energy has become the hottest track at present. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD exceeded one trillion yuan, and Tesla's market value even exceeded the combined market value of several established car companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot in his hands. Tsingshan Holding's nickel output was 600,000 tons in 2021, 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel output, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\", and he has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>Not satisfied is just \"working\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Qingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy automobile industry.</p><p>It is just that there are many people who are popular, and the pigs on the outlet are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who had survived this \"calamity\" safely, still had to be careful. He had too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which was too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Forcing the Air War\" that everyone on earth knew about finally came to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Qingshan Group retreated unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut his meat and lost 120 million dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>On June 29th news, Tsingshan Holding Group safely exited most of the short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of the positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two sides. Tsingshan Group has left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars is far from enough.</p><p>Friends who pay attention to this matter may still be \"dumbfounded\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What has really happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Aoyama counter-kills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly comb the whole process of the Lun Ni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lun nickel futures soared from $29,000/ton to $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8th, Lun Nickel futures rose from USD 60,000/ton to USD 100,000/ton, and the whole process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8: 15 on March 8th (UK time), LME suspended the trading of all nickel contracts and cancelled the trading after 0: 00 on March 8th, commonly known as \"pulling the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9th, Xiang Guangda admitted that he was forced short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot through various channels.</p><p>On March 15th, Qingshan Group said it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of creditors of futures banks. During this period, the position of Tsingshan will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its position thereafter.</p><p>On March 16th, nickel trading resumed on LME.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan exited most of its short nickel positions in LME, and the event ended.</p><p>Reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has raised itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Qingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin. The product delivered by Lunjin is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high ice nickel and about 10% ferronickel. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Qingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures empty orders, but the nickel inventory of the whole Lunjin Institute was only 80,000 tons, which means that even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Institute, it couldn't make up half of its futures empty orders. 3. Usually, Qingshan Group will buy nickel with Russia to close its position when it encounters the delivery period. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel has been embargo. Tsingshan Group did not react to this news in time. To sum up, although Qingshan Group has a rich family, it has played out all the good cards at this card table, with only \"1 vs. 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this case, how could the naturally bloodthirsty Wall Street capital let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7th and March 8th, quickly raising the price of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, which incidentally broke \"the highest record of any kind of asset price fluctuation.\"</p><p>At that time, the situation was that Qingshan Group had to lose hundreds of billions of dollars if it couldn't get the goods, and if it had no money, it had to sell Indonesia's nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese enterprises worked so hard to establish would be hit hard.</p><p>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others.</p><p>Although it was unknown who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Qingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high ice nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>From the gossip, at that time, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement, which can be described as united. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I have received many calls, and the relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why is the final result not that Qingshan Group takes out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and gives them to Wall Street takeover men, so that they have nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they can only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic enterprises do when so much nickel is handed over? Do all enterprises stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced and then resume production?</p><p>Although doing this was very relieving, the price to pay was too high.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\" with the confidence of being able to produce 200,000 tons of delivered products.</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29th, Qingshan Group reduced its short position to turn itself around. Although Wall Street institutions lost a little money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is really behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Qingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Pressing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve no less funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes, in order to get Qingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mine. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest Swiss enterprise with operating income of $215.11 billion, covering the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money on its own. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan sold it out long ago with its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a $120 million loss in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>It can make the old Wall Street investment banks lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short-squeezing\" incident in March, it is difficult to have other reasons to convince people. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Qingshan Group's large number of short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, about 50,000 tons of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase was mired in a $120 million loss.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter and we're going to try to get through it. We're going to do an ex post analysis of what we did wrong and what different things we could do after LME.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>One, they are doing things for their customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin's behavior of \"pulling the network cable\", and perhaps they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what steps JPMorgan will take, but someone has already started to act. They don't seem to throw in the towel and are still doing the final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/Visual China</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6th, on June 1st, the famous American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that Lunkin's \"cancellation of the transaction after 00: 00 UK time on March 8th, 2022 was illegal.\"</p><p>Two of Elliott's hedge funds have sued HKEx and its subsidiary LME and its clearing firm LME Clear Limite to the British High Court for a claim of about $456 million, or about RMB 3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977 and with a fund under management of over $51.5 billion at the end of 2021, Elliott Management is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive and fierce investment style.</p><p>How fierce is Elliot really? It can make a nation unsettled.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changed in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion US dollars was unable to be repaid. Just as other financial institutions avoided it, Elliott bargained the Argentine Treasury Bond for $617 million.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. Creditors led by Elliott mercilessly refused twice and sued Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this trick is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande now that creditors disagree with Evergrande's reorganization.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle, and Elliott made 3.7 times this single, but every penny was hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>Exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter is unclear. If Elliott can win the case with the HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out in full force.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinched Musk's life door? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, Glencore officials said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates is that the competition for metallic nickel has entered a white-hot stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is high nickel and ultra-high nickel batteries, this proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, which makes it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem for new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>The data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of LME continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliveries are bought in large quantities for manufacturing new energy batteries. The shortfalls for nickel are expected to be-25,600 tonnes, -27,900 tonnes, and-65,300 tonnes from 2023 to 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this God holding a rice bowl to feed Xiang Guangda?</p><p>In 1958, Xiang Guangda was born in a family of ordinary workers in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Due to the emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with China First Automobile Wheel Factory, and invested 24 million yuan to set up \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, which officially entered the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the whole steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-ore heating furnace (RKEF) smelting technology, and led a team to develop a new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace double method, which cut the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton cost.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel. Who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the right to mining laterite nickel ore with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, the first nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China. Qingshan Holding Group has also conquered the technology of purifying high-ice nickel with laterite nickel ore. With one operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, stainless steel is not worried. Qingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Qingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to 10 million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holding Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500. According to Tianyan, Xiang Guangda occupies 48.45% of the equity of Qingshan Holding Group through various paths, and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Ownership Structure of Tsingshan Holdings/Screenshot of Tianyan Check</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, and new energy has become the hottest track at present. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD exceeded one trillion yuan, and Tesla's market value even exceeded the combined market value of several established car companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot in his hands. Tsingshan Holding's nickel output was 600,000 tons in 2021, 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel output, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\", and he has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>Not satisfied is just \"working\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Qingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy automobile industry.</p><p>It is just that there are many people who are popular, and the pigs on the outlet are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who had survived this \"calamity\" safely, still had to be careful. He had too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which was too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047533648,"gmtCreate":1656940297584,"gmtModify":1676535918898,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047533648","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Forcing the Air War\" that everyone on earth knew about finally came to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Qingshan Group retreated unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut his meat and lost 120 million dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>On June 29th news, Tsingshan Holding Group safely exited most of the short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of the positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two sides. Tsingshan Group has left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars is far from enough.</p><p>Friends who pay attention to this matter may still be \"dumbfounded\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What has really happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Aoyama counter-kills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly comb the whole process of the Lun Ni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lun nickel futures soared from $29,000/ton to $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8th, Lun Nickel futures rose from USD 60,000/ton to USD 100,000/ton, and the whole process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8: 15 on March 8th (UK time), LME suspended the trading of all nickel contracts and cancelled the trading after 0: 00 on March 8th, commonly known as \"pulling the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9th, Xiang Guangda admitted that he was forced short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot through various channels.</p><p>On March 15th, Qingshan Group said it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of creditors of futures banks. During this period, the position of Tsingshan will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its position thereafter.</p><p>On March 16th, nickel trading resumed on LME.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan exited most of its short nickel positions in LME, and the event ended.</p><p>Reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has raised itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Qingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin. The product delivered by Lunjin is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high ice nickel and about 10% ferronickel. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Qingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures empty orders, but the nickel inventory of the whole Lunjin Institute was only 80,000 tons, which means that even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Institute, it couldn't make up half of its futures empty orders. 3. Usually, Qingshan Group will buy nickel with Russia to close its position when it encounters the delivery period. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel has been embargo. Tsingshan Group did not react to this news in time. To sum up, although Qingshan Group has a rich family, it has played out all the good cards at this card table, with only \"1 vs. 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this case, how could the naturally bloodthirsty Wall Street capital let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7th and March 8th, quickly raising the price of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, which incidentally broke \"the highest record of any kind of asset price fluctuation.\"</p><p>At that time, the situation was that Qingshan Group had to lose hundreds of billions of dollars if it couldn't get the goods, and if it had no money, it had to sell Indonesia's nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese enterprises worked so hard to establish would be hit hard.</p><p>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others.</p><p>Although it was unknown who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Qingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high ice nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>From the gossip, at that time, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement, which can be described as united. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I have received many calls, and the relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why is the final result not that Qingshan Group takes out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and gives them to Wall Street takeover men, so that they have nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they can only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic enterprises do when so much nickel is handed over? Do all enterprises stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced and then resume production?</p><p>Although doing this was very relieving, the price to pay was too high.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\" with the confidence of being able to produce 200,000 tons of delivered products.</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29th, Qingshan Group reduced its short position to turn itself around. Although Wall Street institutions lost a little money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is really behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Qingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Pressing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve no less funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes, in order to get Qingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mine. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest Swiss enterprise with operating income of $215.11 billion, covering the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money on its own. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan sold it out long ago with its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a $120 million loss in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>It can make the old Wall Street investment banks lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short-squeezing\" incident in March, it is difficult to have other reasons to convince people. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Qingshan Group's large number of short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, about 50,000 tons of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase was mired in a $120 million loss.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter and we're going to try to get through it. We're going to do an ex post analysis of what we did wrong and what different things we could do after LME.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>One, they are doing things for their customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin's behavior of \"pulling the network cable\", and perhaps they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what steps JPMorgan will take, but someone has already started to act. They don't seem to throw in the towel and are still doing the final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/Visual China</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6th, on June 1st, the famous American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that Lunkin's \"cancellation of the transaction after 00: 00 UK time on March 8th, 2022 was illegal.\"</p><p>Two of Elliott's hedge funds have sued HKEx and its subsidiary LME and its clearing firm LME Clear Limite to the British High Court for a claim of about $456 million, or about RMB 3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977 and with a fund under management of over $51.5 billion at the end of 2021, Elliott Management is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive and fierce investment style.</p><p>How fierce is Elliot really? It can make a nation unsettled.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changed in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion US dollars was unable to be repaid. Just as other financial institutions avoided it, Elliott bargained the Argentine Treasury Bond for $617 million.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. Creditors led by Elliott mercilessly refused twice and sued Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this trick is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande now that creditors disagree with Evergrande's reorganization.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle, and Elliott made 3.7 times this single, but every penny was hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>Exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter is unclear. If Elliott can win the case with the HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out in full force.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinched Musk's life door? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, Glencore officials said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates is that the competition for metallic nickel has entered a white-hot stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is high nickel and ultra-high nickel batteries, this proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, which makes it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem for new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>The data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of LME continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliveries are bought in large quantities for manufacturing new energy batteries. The shortfalls for nickel are expected to be-25,600 tonnes, -27,900 tonnes, and-65,300 tonnes from 2023 to 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this God holding a rice bowl to feed Xiang Guangda?</p><p>In 1958, Xiang Guangda was born in a family of ordinary workers in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Due to the emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with China First Automobile Wheel Factory, and invested 24 million yuan to set up \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, which officially entered the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the whole steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-ore heating furnace (RKEF) smelting technology, and led a team to develop a new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace double method, which cut the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton cost.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel. Who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the right to mining laterite nickel ore with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, the first nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China. Qingshan Holding Group has also conquered the technology of purifying high-ice nickel with laterite nickel ore. With one operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, stainless steel is not worried. Qingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Qingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to 10 million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holding Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500. According to Tianyan, Xiang Guangda occupies 48.45% of the equity of Qingshan Holding Group through various paths, and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Ownership Structure of Tsingshan Holdings/Screenshot of Tianyan Check</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, and new energy has become the hottest track at present. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD exceeded one trillion yuan, and Tesla's market value even exceeded the combined market value of several established car companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot in his hands. Tsingshan Holding's nickel output was 600,000 tons in 2021, 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel output, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\", and he has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>Not satisfied is just \"working\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Qingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy automobile industry.</p><p>It is just that there are many people who are popular, and the pigs on the outlet are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who had survived this \"calamity\" safely, still had to be careful. He had too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which was too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Forcing the Air War\" that everyone on earth knew about finally came to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Qingshan Group retreated unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut his meat and lost 120 million dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>On June 29th news, Tsingshan Holding Group safely exited most of the short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of the positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two sides. Tsingshan Group has left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars is far from enough.</p><p>Friends who pay attention to this matter may still be \"dumbfounded\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What has really happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Aoyama counter-kills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly comb the whole process of the Lun Ni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lun nickel futures soared from $29,000/ton to $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8th, Lun Nickel futures rose from USD 60,000/ton to USD 100,000/ton, and the whole process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8: 15 on March 8th (UK time), LME suspended the trading of all nickel contracts and cancelled the trading after 0: 00 on March 8th, commonly known as \"pulling the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9th, Xiang Guangda admitted that he was forced short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot through various channels.</p><p>On March 15th, Qingshan Group said it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of creditors of futures banks. During this period, the position of Tsingshan will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its position thereafter.</p><p>On March 16th, nickel trading resumed on LME.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan exited most of its short nickel positions in LME, and the event ended.</p><p>Reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has raised itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Qingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin. The product delivered by Lunjin is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high ice nickel and about 10% ferronickel. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Qingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures empty orders, but the nickel inventory of the whole Lunjin Institute was only 80,000 tons, which means that even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Institute, it couldn't make up half of its futures empty orders. 3. Usually, Qingshan Group will buy nickel with Russia to close its position when it encounters the delivery period. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel has been embargo. Tsingshan Group did not react to this news in time. To sum up, although Qingshan Group has a rich family, it has played out all the good cards at this card table, with only \"1 vs. 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this case, how could the naturally bloodthirsty Wall Street capital let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7th and March 8th, quickly raising the price of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, which incidentally broke \"the highest record of any kind of asset price fluctuation.\"</p><p>At that time, the situation was that Qingshan Group had to lose hundreds of billions of dollars if it couldn't get the goods, and if it had no money, it had to sell Indonesia's nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese enterprises worked so hard to establish would be hit hard.</p><p>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others.</p><p>Although it was unknown who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Qingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high ice nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>From the gossip, at that time, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement, which can be described as united. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I have received many calls, and the relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why is the final result not that Qingshan Group takes out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and gives them to Wall Street takeover men, so that they have nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they can only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic enterprises do when so much nickel is handed over? Do all enterprises stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced and then resume production?</p><p>Although doing this was very relieving, the price to pay was too high.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\" with the confidence of being able to produce 200,000 tons of delivered products.</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29th, Qingshan Group reduced its short position to turn itself around. Although Wall Street institutions lost a little money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is really behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Qingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Pressing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve no less funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes, in order to get Qingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mine. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest Swiss enterprise with operating income of $215.11 billion, covering the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money on its own. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan sold it out long ago with its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a $120 million loss in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>It can make the old Wall Street investment banks lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short-squeezing\" incident in March, it is difficult to have other reasons to convince people. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Qingshan Group's large number of short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, about 50,000 tons of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase was mired in a $120 million loss.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter and we're going to try to get through it. We're going to do an ex post analysis of what we did wrong and what different things we could do after LME.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>One, they are doing things for their customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin's behavior of \"pulling the network cable\", and perhaps they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what steps JPMorgan will take, but someone has already started to act. They don't seem to throw in the towel and are still doing the final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/Visual China</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6th, on June 1st, the famous American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that Lunkin's \"cancellation of the transaction after 00: 00 UK time on March 8th, 2022 was illegal.\"</p><p>Two of Elliott's hedge funds have sued HKEx and its subsidiary LME and its clearing firm LME Clear Limite to the British High Court for a claim of about $456 million, or about RMB 3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977 and with a fund under management of over $51.5 billion at the end of 2021, Elliott Management is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive and fierce investment style.</p><p>How fierce is Elliot really? It can make a nation unsettled.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changed in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion US dollars was unable to be repaid. Just as other financial institutions avoided it, Elliott bargained the Argentine Treasury Bond for $617 million.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. Creditors led by Elliott mercilessly refused twice and sued Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this trick is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande now that creditors disagree with Evergrande's reorganization.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle, and Elliott made 3.7 times this single, but every penny was hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>Exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter is unclear. If Elliott can win the case with the HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out in full force.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinched Musk's life door? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, Glencore officials said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates is that the competition for metallic nickel has entered a white-hot stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is high nickel and ultra-high nickel batteries, this proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, which makes it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem for new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>The data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of LME continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliveries are bought in large quantities for manufacturing new energy batteries. The shortfalls for nickel are expected to be-25,600 tonnes, -27,900 tonnes, and-65,300 tonnes from 2023 to 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this God holding a rice bowl to feed Xiang Guangda?</p><p>In 1958, Xiang Guangda was born in a family of ordinary workers in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Due to the emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with China First Automobile Wheel Factory, and invested 24 million yuan to set up \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, which officially entered the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the whole steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-ore heating furnace (RKEF) smelting technology, and led a team to develop a new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace double method, which cut the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton cost.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel. Who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the right to mining laterite nickel ore with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, the first nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China. Qingshan Holding Group has also conquered the technology of purifying high-ice nickel with laterite nickel ore. With one operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, stainless steel is not worried. Qingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Qingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to 10 million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holding Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500. According to Tianyan, Xiang Guangda occupies 48.45% of the equity of Qingshan Holding Group through various paths, and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Ownership Structure of Tsingshan Holdings/Screenshot of Tianyan Check</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, and new energy has become the hottest track at present. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD exceeded one trillion yuan, and Tesla's market value even exceeded the combined market value of several established car companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot in his hands. Tsingshan Holding's nickel output was 600,000 tons in 2021, 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel output, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\", and he has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>Not satisfied is just \"working\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Qingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy automobile industry.</p><p>It is just that there are many people who are popular, and the pigs on the outlet are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who had survived this \"calamity\" safely, still had to be careful. He had too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which was too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043478220,"gmtCreate":1655957582860,"gmtModify":1676535740403,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043478220","repostId":"1122450899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122450899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655908485,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122450899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why is the Fed afraid to save U.S. stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122450899","media":"见闻VIP会员","summary":"股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>For a long time, the continuous and rapid rise of U.S. stocks has caused the labor participation rate in the United States to continue to decrease, and the decline is obvious. Showing the appreciation of assets, including stock investments and pensions, more and more American labor forces are leaving the labor market, either financially free, or under reduced pressure to retire early.</p><p>At present, the plunge in U.S. stocks has shrunk the assets of residents in U.S. stocks, but it also has benefits-\"helping\" the labor force to speed up its return to the labor market. This helps reverse the trend of labor leaving the labor market and helps improve labor supply shortages; If the US stock market is maintained, it may aggravate the shortage of labor supply. This may be one of the reasons why the Fed is afraid to save U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Is there a side effect of US stocks rising all the time?</b></p><p>In June, the U.S. CPI data hit a 40-year high, and after the rate hike expected to heat up, U.S. stocks plunged again. As of June 17th, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Index fell by 22.90%, 17.75% and 30.98% respectively during the year.</p><p>Nasdaq's maximum pullback/retracement since this round of highs has reached 35%, which has already surpassed the largest pullback/retracement during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Moreover, unlike at that time, it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to \"release water\" to rescue the market, and the downward cycle of U.S. stocks seems to have not ended.</p><p>VIP mentioned earlier that due to the deep \"binding\" of American household assets and pensions, the plunge of U.S. stocks has shrunk the wealth of American households. According to the data of the Federal Reserve, the prices of real estate and other assets rose in the first quarter, but the equity assets brought by the company's stock shrank seriously.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2128b9ff440a2cd6f75fe3cba8f8f2\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Chart: Change in net worth of U.S. households and nonprofits (Source: Federal Reserve)</span></p><p>Considering that U.S. stocks fell more fiercely in the second quarter than in the first quarter, the shrinkage will continue to increase in the second quarter.</p><p>Previously, the market always believed that due to the deep binding of U.S. stocks and pensions, the Federal Reserve had \"put options\" and would not let U.S. stocks fall. However, with rising inflation and tight labor market, the side effects of rising U.S. stocks have already appeared, and the Fed's abandonment of \"put options\" has another deep meaning.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks have risen too much, and no one is willing to work?</b></p><p>According to the Federal Reserve data, the largest proportion of the assets of the wealthy Americans are corporate stocks and mutual funds, while middle-class wealth is mainly concentrated in stocks, funds and pensions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6fff708501e31bfde5fcbf666ef1ed\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the pension in the United States is \"deeply bound\" to the US stock market, and more than 60% of the pension is allocated in the equity market.</p><p>The long bull of U.S. stocks has attracted a larger proportion of pensions into the market, which has brought rich returns to pensions. But the problem also comes. When the pension is earned \"too much\", it may make more people, especially the middle class, touch the threshold of \"financial freedom\" or \"worry-free pension\".</p><p>And this will also reduce the willingness of residents to participate in labor. Judging from the labor participation rate and the trend of the stock market in the United States, in the past 20 years, under the dividend of the rapid development of \"technology Internet\", U.S. stocks have risen hugely, especially led by Nasdaq, with the largest increase of more than ten times in 20 years. The huge wealth appreciation effect brought by the rapid appreciation of stock investment and pension also caused the labor participation rate in the United States to drop significantly. From 67 percent in 2000 to around 62 percent today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ae51f632b488b5e3ae2fefd15f0b22\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the labour participation rate measures the proportion of people willing to participate in labour (including the number of unemployed people who are employed and looking for work) relative to the working-age population (people aged 16-64). This value mainly reflects the working willingness of the appropriate-age labor force, and is not significantly affected by the change of demographic structure, especially the aging of the population.</p><p>It can be seen that,<b>Due to the remarkable effect of wealth appreciation, in the past 20 years, especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the global \"big water release\" has led to the accelerated rise of US stocks and the rapid decline of labor participation rate, which means that this round of wealth appreciation has made more people choose not to work or retire early.</b></p><p>This has exacerbated the recent tight labor market situation in the United States, accelerated the growth of American wages, and \"contributed\" to the further rise of inflation.</p><p>In addition, from a long-term perspective, this trend not only reduces the willingness of American residents to work, but also distorts the reference significance of economic data. America's economic growth rate has fallen from about 5 percent before 2000 to about 2 percent before the pandemic, but the unemployment low is even lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8b6cf636e99116ca7a0ff2f039e030\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the period of upward inflation caused by the imbalance between supply and demand, this change makes the supply and demand relationship in the labor market more tight, thus making it easier to raise wages, thus forming a \"wage-price\" upward spiral.</p><p><b>Cooling U.S. stocks is also in</b>\"<b>help</b>\"<b>Workforce Accelerates Return to Work</b></p><p>Due to the wealth effect of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years, more and more people choose not to work. Under the current background of big inflation and labor supply shortage, if the Federal Reserve exercises \"put options\" to protect the pension interests of American residents, it may aggravate the trend of labor force staying away from the labor market.</p><p>From the perspective of the labor participation rate to the proportion of non-laborers in the United States (1-labor participation rate), apart from the special impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the decline of U.S. stocks in 2018 and 2022 caused the two stages to broaden-the labor population increased and the non-labor population decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be719aaba590412cc9c8f6b0b1b4071\" tg-width=\"1110\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This may well suggest that the stock market decline has indeed pushed the labor force back into the labor market.</p><p><b>Therefore, in this round, the Federal Reserve not only dares to strengthen U.S. stocks, but even needs to use the falling force of U.S. stocks to \"help\" the labor force to speed up its return to work, so as to improve the dilemma of insufficient labor supply.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646046088746","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is the Fed afraid to save U.S. stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is the Fed afraid to save U.S. stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">见闻VIP会员</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-22 22:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>For a long time, the continuous and rapid rise of U.S. stocks has caused the labor participation rate in the United States to continue to decrease, and the decline is obvious. Showing the appreciation of assets, including stock investments and pensions, more and more American labor forces are leaving the labor market, either financially free, or under reduced pressure to retire early.</p><p>At present, the plunge in U.S. stocks has shrunk the assets of residents in U.S. stocks, but it also has benefits-\"helping\" the labor force to speed up its return to the labor market. This helps reverse the trend of labor leaving the labor market and helps improve labor supply shortages; If the US stock market is maintained, it may aggravate the shortage of labor supply. This may be one of the reasons why the Fed is afraid to save U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Is there a side effect of US stocks rising all the time?</b></p><p>In June, the U.S. CPI data hit a 40-year high, and after the rate hike expected to heat up, U.S. stocks plunged again. As of June 17th, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Index fell by 22.90%, 17.75% and 30.98% respectively during the year.</p><p>Nasdaq's maximum pullback/retracement since this round of highs has reached 35%, which has already surpassed the largest pullback/retracement during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Moreover, unlike at that time, it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to \"release water\" to rescue the market, and the downward cycle of U.S. stocks seems to have not ended.</p><p>VIP mentioned earlier that due to the deep \"binding\" of American household assets and pensions, the plunge of U.S. stocks has shrunk the wealth of American households. According to the data of the Federal Reserve, the prices of real estate and other assets rose in the first quarter, but the equity assets brought by the company's stock shrank seriously.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2128b9ff440a2cd6f75fe3cba8f8f2\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Chart: Change in net worth of U.S. households and nonprofits (Source: Federal Reserve)</span></p><p>Considering that U.S. stocks fell more fiercely in the second quarter than in the first quarter, the shrinkage will continue to increase in the second quarter.</p><p>Previously, the market always believed that due to the deep binding of U.S. stocks and pensions, the Federal Reserve had \"put options\" and would not let U.S. stocks fall. However, with rising inflation and tight labor market, the side effects of rising U.S. stocks have already appeared, and the Fed's abandonment of \"put options\" has another deep meaning.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks have risen too much, and no one is willing to work?</b></p><p>According to the Federal Reserve data, the largest proportion of the assets of the wealthy Americans are corporate stocks and mutual funds, while middle-class wealth is mainly concentrated in stocks, funds and pensions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6fff708501e31bfde5fcbf666ef1ed\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the pension in the United States is \"deeply bound\" to the US stock market, and more than 60% of the pension is allocated in the equity market.</p><p>The long bull of U.S. stocks has attracted a larger proportion of pensions into the market, which has brought rich returns to pensions. But the problem also comes. When the pension is earned \"too much\", it may make more people, especially the middle class, touch the threshold of \"financial freedom\" or \"worry-free pension\".</p><p>And this will also reduce the willingness of residents to participate in labor. Judging from the labor participation rate and the trend of the stock market in the United States, in the past 20 years, under the dividend of the rapid development of \"technology Internet\", U.S. stocks have risen hugely, especially led by Nasdaq, with the largest increase of more than ten times in 20 years. The huge wealth appreciation effect brought by the rapid appreciation of stock investment and pension also caused the labor participation rate in the United States to drop significantly. From 67 percent in 2000 to around 62 percent today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ae51f632b488b5e3ae2fefd15f0b22\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the labour participation rate measures the proportion of people willing to participate in labour (including the number of unemployed people who are employed and looking for work) relative to the working-age population (people aged 16-64). This value mainly reflects the working willingness of the appropriate-age labor force, and is not significantly affected by the change of demographic structure, especially the aging of the population.</p><p>It can be seen that,<b>Due to the remarkable effect of wealth appreciation, in the past 20 years, especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the global \"big water release\" has led to the accelerated rise of US stocks and the rapid decline of labor participation rate, which means that this round of wealth appreciation has made more people choose not to work or retire early.</b></p><p>This has exacerbated the recent tight labor market situation in the United States, accelerated the growth of American wages, and \"contributed\" to the further rise of inflation.</p><p>In addition, from a long-term perspective, this trend not only reduces the willingness of American residents to work, but also distorts the reference significance of economic data. America's economic growth rate has fallen from about 5 percent before 2000 to about 2 percent before the pandemic, but the unemployment low is even lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8b6cf636e99116ca7a0ff2f039e030\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the period of upward inflation caused by the imbalance between supply and demand, this change makes the supply and demand relationship in the labor market more tight, thus making it easier to raise wages, thus forming a \"wage-price\" upward spiral.</p><p><b>Cooling U.S. stocks is also in</b>\"<b>help</b>\"<b>Workforce Accelerates Return to Work</b></p><p>Due to the wealth effect of U.S. stocks in the past 20 years, more and more people choose not to work. Under the current background of big inflation and labor supply shortage, if the Federal Reserve exercises \"put options\" to protect the pension interests of American residents, it may aggravate the trend of labor force staying away from the labor market.</p><p>From the perspective of the labor participation rate to the proportion of non-laborers in the United States (1-labor participation rate), apart from the special impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the decline of U.S. stocks in 2018 and 2022 caused the two stages to broaden-the labor population increased and the non-labor population decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be719aaba590412cc9c8f6b0b1b4071\" tg-width=\"1110\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This may well suggest that the stock market decline has indeed pushed the labor force back into the labor market.</p><p><b>Therefore, in this round, the Federal Reserve not only dares to strengthen U.S. stocks, but even needs to use the falling force of U.S. stocks to \"help\" the labor force to speed up its return to work, so as to improve the dilemma of insufficient labor supply.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg\">见闻VIP会员</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122450899","content_text":"长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨，令美国劳动参与率持续降低，降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值，令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场，或财务自由，或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌，虽令美股居民资产缩水，但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势，帮助改善劳动力供给短缺；而如果维护美股，则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的原因之一。美股一直涨也是有副作用的？在6月份美国CPI数据创40年新高，加息预期升温后，美股再度大幅跳水，截至6月17日，标普500、道指、纳指年内跌幅分别达到22.90%、17.75%和30.98%。纳斯达克自本轮高点最大回撤幅度达到35%，已经超过了2020年新冠疫情时期的最大回撤。而且，与彼时不同，美联储已不可能再\"大放水\"救市了，美股的下行周期似乎仍未结束。见闻VIP此前提到，由于美国家庭资产与养老金深度\"绑定\"，美股暴跌令美国家庭财富缩水。根据美联储数据显示，一季度房地产等资产价格上涨，但公司股票带来的权益类资产缩水较为严重。图：美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化（来源：美联储）考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶，2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定，美联储有\"看跌期权\"，不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏，美股上涨的副作用已经显现，美联储放弃\"看跌期权\"也另有深意。美股涨太多，都没人愿意干活了？根据美联储数据显示，美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金，而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。而美国的养老金与美股\"深度绑定\"，养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市，为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来，当养老金赚的\"太多了\"，这可能让更多人，尤其是中产阶级摸到了\"财务自由\"门槛、或者说\"养老无忧\"。而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看，20多年来，在\"科技互联网\"高速发展的红利之下，美股涨幅巨大，尤其以纳斯达克为首，20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。需要注意的是，劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口（包括就业和在找工作的失业人数）相对适龄劳动人口（16-64岁人口）的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿，受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。可以看出，由于财富增值效应显著，近20年来，尤其是08年金融危机后，全球\"大放水\"导致美股加速上涨，劳动参与率也快速下滑，意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面，加速了美国薪资的增长，为通胀进一步上升\"添砖加瓦\"。另外，从长期数据来看，这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿，也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右，降至疫情前2%左右水平，但失业率低点却更低了。在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期，这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏，从而更易于涨薪，进而形成\"薪资-物价\"螺旋式上升循环。给美股降温，也是在\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作，在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下，美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益，可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例（1-劳动参与率）来看，除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外，2018年及2022年的美股下跌，都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。这很可能说明，股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。因此，本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强，甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗，以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054237843,"gmtCreate":1655391644582,"gmtModify":1676535629202,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054237843","repostId":"2243974660","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243974660","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655360539,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243974660?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Lehman Crisis\" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's hedge funds' turn!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243974660","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"继5月中旬稳定币UST和其姊妹代币LUNA遭遇了“死亡踩踏”之后，眼看着币圈从“货币危机”发酵到“银行危机”，随后新的危机接踵而至——这次轮到了对冲基金。币圈“雷曼危机”蔓延到了对冲基金在传统金融中，当公司试图通过亏本出售某些资产来偿还债务时，就会发生清算。为了防止挤兑，Celsius周一宣布冻结提款，此举引发了市场担忧。在“货币危机”和“银行危机”之后，币圈的新危机蔓延到了对冲基金身上。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the stablecoin UST and its sister token LUNA suffered a \"death stampede\" in mid-May, watching the currency circle ferment from a \"currency crisis\" to a \"banking crisis\", followed by new crises-this time it was hedge funds' turn.</p><p>Three Arrows Capital, one of the biggest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, could face bankruptcy after heavy liquidations, according to sources, affected by the thunderstorms of cryptocurrencies LUNA and UST.</p><p>According to The Defiant, a decentralized finance (DeFi) news information platform, on Tuesday local time, Dubai-based Three Arrows Capital liquidated about $45 million of stETH, a type of Ethereum (ETH) staking on The Ethereum beacon chain, making Three Arrows Capital The biggest token seller in The past week.</p><p>What worries investors even more is that, according to The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>The total liquidation of Three Arrows Capital on lending platforms such as Deribit and BlockFi could be as high as $400 million, said.</p><p><b>If all is true, then Three Arrows Capital is likely to face bankruptcy.</b></p><p><b>Currency Circle \"Lehman Crisis\" Spread to Hedge Funds</b></p><p>In traditional finance, liquidation occurs when a company attempts to pay off its debt by selling certain assets at a loss. While in the DeFi space, funds or agreements sell crypto assets to pay off their debts.</p><p>As one of the largest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, Three Arrows Capital's portfolio once included tokens such as Avalanche, Solana, Polkadot and Terra, and it is the \"top stream\" that can't be ignored among hedge funds in the currency circle.</p><p>According to some media, the asset management scale of Three Arrows Capital once reached 10 billion USD.</p><p>However, in the strong portfolio once owned by Three Arrows Capital, with Terra currently falling to almost zero, Solana and Avalanche down 77% and 90% respectively since each hitting record highs, the VC \"top stream\" appears to be in trouble.</p><p>Then a new tweet from Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, appeared to confirm these speculations and further raise concerns about potential ripple effects in the crypto lending market.</p><p>On Tuesday evening local time, Zhu Su tweeted:</p><p>We are communicating with the parties involved and are committed to resolving this issue entirely.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b708a7a29bccba67d263ac9fb182d7\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Crypto Market Crash: From 'Currency Crisis' to 'Banking Crisis'</b></p><p>Before investors found out that something was wrong with hedge funds, currency circle banks had taken the lead in thunderstorms.</p><p><b>As the recent CPI data in the United States continues to rise beyond expectations and repeatedly sets new highs in 40 years, the Federal Reserve vows to press down high inflation, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue to aggressively rate hike.</b></p><p><b>Affected by this, global risk assets collectively plunged.</b></p><p>As the era of abundant liquidity is gone forever, cryptocurrency investors are \"shivering\", and the cryptocurrency market, which once rode the east wind straight up, is \"facing the cold winter\".</p><p>Not only does Bitcoin, the largest market capitalization, \"fall and fall\", but the \"death stampede\" encountered by UST, the third largest stablecoin, and its sister token Luna has caused market shock.</p><p>Wall Street's previous article mentioned that due to the collapse of risky assets, the business of currency circle banks and crypto lending giant Celsius faced a critical hit.</p><p>To prevent a run, Celsius announced a withdrawal freeze on Monday, a move that raised concerns in the markets.</p><p><b>Investors fear ripple effects across the dozens of DeFi projects, cryptocurrencies and other digital assets involved if Celsius is asked to cease operations.</b></p><p>According to some media, Celsius's position in the industry should not be underestimated. The company claims to have 1.7 million users. As of May 17, the company had $11.8 billion worth of assets.</p><p>In addition, investors are worried about whether Celsius shareholder Tether Limited, the issuer of Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, will also be dragged down. You know, Tether is like Lehman Brothers in the currency circle.</p><p>Tether, the largest operator in the $180 billion stablecoin space, plays a key role in facilitating transactions across the cryptocurrency market and also provides a connection to the mainstream financial system, equivalent to the coin circle financial infrastructure.</p><p>This Monday, Tether tried to \"distance itself\" from Celsius in a blog post:</p><p>While it is true that an investment in the Company (Celsius) is included in Tether's portfolio, it represents only a small percentage of our shareholders' equity and there is no correlation between this investment and our own reserves or stability. In response, Saleuddin of crypto media company Blockworks said that because of the ambiguity of what Tether is disclosing, it is impossible to know exactly how much Tether's assets are at risk.</p><p><b>Will Three Arrows Capital be the latest domino to fall in the crypto bear market?</b></p><p>After the \"currency crisis\" and the \"banking crisis\", the new crisis in the currency circle spread to hedge funds.</p><p>Cryptocurrency trader Moon Overlord noted that Celsius has not been the biggest seller of stETH over the past few days. He said:</p><p><b>Some people think that Celsius is the biggest stETH dumper, but in fact, Three Arrows Capital is.</b>Three Arrows Capital is dumping the accounts and seed round investment addresses they have, most of which appear to be to pay off their debts and outstanding borrowings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78124b2fe0b2939c49760263db9c398f\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Additionally, according to DeFi analyst DeFiyst, Three Arrows Capital's \"big sale\" of stETH began right after the collapse of Terra's UST stablecoin in May of this year, noting:</p><p>The price of stETH relative to ETH had briefly fallen to 95 cents in May, and Three Arrows Capital withdrew 127,000 stETH from Curve, which was then $246 million. They had been operating frequently between AAVE and wstETH before the sell-off began this week. It is important to note that stETH should be traded with ETH in a 1:1 ratio, as the derivative token stETH can be exchanged for Ethereum once the mainnet merger occurs.</p><p>However, since June 9, the \"peg\" ratio has shown signs of decline, and at one point fell to 0.89.</p><p>June 16 At the time of publication, the stETH to ETH exchange ratio on Curve dropped to 0.93, and the market cap of stETH has dropped to $4 billion from about $10 billion in early May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc497aa733d961bad25f176a45038cb\" tg-width=\"248\" tg-height=\"123\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data from Nansen, an on-chain data analysis platform, on Tuesday, Three Arrows Capital withdrew 80,000 stETH from Aave, a decentralized lending protocol, and exchanged 38,900 stETH (about $45 million) in two transactions at a spread of 5.6%-5.9%.</p><p>According to The Block, Three Arrows Capital's $400 million position has been liquidated. In addition, cryptocurrency analyst Onchain Wizard also said that if the market continues to fall, Three Arrows Capital's other $300 million position in Aave and Compound will also face liquidation risk.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Lehman Crisis\" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's hedge funds' turn!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Lehman Crisis\" in the currency circle is fermenting, and now it's hedge funds' turn!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-16 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the stablecoin UST and its sister token LUNA suffered a \"death stampede\" in mid-May, watching the currency circle ferment from a \"currency crisis\" to a \"banking crisis\", followed by new crises-this time it was hedge funds' turn.</p><p>Three Arrows Capital, one of the biggest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, could face bankruptcy after heavy liquidations, according to sources, affected by the thunderstorms of cryptocurrencies LUNA and UST.</p><p>According to The Defiant, a decentralized finance (DeFi) news information platform, on Tuesday local time, Dubai-based Three Arrows Capital liquidated about $45 million of stETH, a type of Ethereum (ETH) staking on The Ethereum beacon chain, making Three Arrows Capital The biggest token seller in The past week.</p><p>What worries investors even more is that, according to The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>The total liquidation of Three Arrows Capital on lending platforms such as Deribit and BlockFi could be as high as $400 million, said.</p><p><b>If all is true, then Three Arrows Capital is likely to face bankruptcy.</b></p><p><b>Currency Circle \"Lehman Crisis\" Spread to Hedge Funds</b></p><p>In traditional finance, liquidation occurs when a company attempts to pay off its debt by selling certain assets at a loss. While in the DeFi space, funds or agreements sell crypto assets to pay off their debts.</p><p>As one of the largest hedge funds in the cryptocurrency market, Three Arrows Capital's portfolio once included tokens such as Avalanche, Solana, Polkadot and Terra, and it is the \"top stream\" that can't be ignored among hedge funds in the currency circle.</p><p>According to some media, the asset management scale of Three Arrows Capital once reached 10 billion USD.</p><p>However, in the strong portfolio once owned by Three Arrows Capital, with Terra currently falling to almost zero, Solana and Avalanche down 77% and 90% respectively since each hitting record highs, the VC \"top stream\" appears to be in trouble.</p><p>Then a new tweet from Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, appeared to confirm these speculations and further raise concerns about potential ripple effects in the crypto lending market.</p><p>On Tuesday evening local time, Zhu Su tweeted:</p><p>We are communicating with the parties involved and are committed to resolving this issue entirely.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b708a7a29bccba67d263ac9fb182d7\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Crypto Market Crash: From 'Currency Crisis' to 'Banking Crisis'</b></p><p>Before investors found out that something was wrong with hedge funds, currency circle banks had taken the lead in thunderstorms.</p><p><b>As the recent CPI data in the United States continues to rise beyond expectations and repeatedly sets new highs in 40 years, the Federal Reserve vows to press down high inflation, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue to aggressively rate hike.</b></p><p><b>Affected by this, global risk assets collectively plunged.</b></p><p>As the era of abundant liquidity is gone forever, cryptocurrency investors are \"shivering\", and the cryptocurrency market, which once rode the east wind straight up, is \"facing the cold winter\".</p><p>Not only does Bitcoin, the largest market capitalization, \"fall and fall\", but the \"death stampede\" encountered by UST, the third largest stablecoin, and its sister token Luna has caused market shock.</p><p>Wall Street's previous article mentioned that due to the collapse of risky assets, the business of currency circle banks and crypto lending giant Celsius faced a critical hit.</p><p>To prevent a run, Celsius announced a withdrawal freeze on Monday, a move that raised concerns in the markets.</p><p><b>Investors fear ripple effects across the dozens of DeFi projects, cryptocurrencies and other digital assets involved if Celsius is asked to cease operations.</b></p><p>According to some media, Celsius's position in the industry should not be underestimated. The company claims to have 1.7 million users. As of May 17, the company had $11.8 billion worth of assets.</p><p>In addition, investors are worried about whether Celsius shareholder Tether Limited, the issuer of Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, will also be dragged down. You know, Tether is like Lehman Brothers in the currency circle.</p><p>Tether, the largest operator in the $180 billion stablecoin space, plays a key role in facilitating transactions across the cryptocurrency market and also provides a connection to the mainstream financial system, equivalent to the coin circle financial infrastructure.</p><p>This Monday, Tether tried to \"distance itself\" from Celsius in a blog post:</p><p>While it is true that an investment in the Company (Celsius) is included in Tether's portfolio, it represents only a small percentage of our shareholders' equity and there is no correlation between this investment and our own reserves or stability. In response, Saleuddin of crypto media company Blockworks said that because of the ambiguity of what Tether is disclosing, it is impossible to know exactly how much Tether's assets are at risk.</p><p><b>Will Three Arrows Capital be the latest domino to fall in the crypto bear market?</b></p><p>After the \"currency crisis\" and the \"banking crisis\", the new crisis in the currency circle spread to hedge funds.</p><p>Cryptocurrency trader Moon Overlord noted that Celsius has not been the biggest seller of stETH over the past few days. He said:</p><p><b>Some people think that Celsius is the biggest stETH dumper, but in fact, Three Arrows Capital is.</b>Three Arrows Capital is dumping the accounts and seed round investment addresses they have, most of which appear to be to pay off their debts and outstanding borrowings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78124b2fe0b2939c49760263db9c398f\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Additionally, according to DeFi analyst DeFiyst, Three Arrows Capital's \"big sale\" of stETH began right after the collapse of Terra's UST stablecoin in May of this year, noting:</p><p>The price of stETH relative to ETH had briefly fallen to 95 cents in May, and Three Arrows Capital withdrew 127,000 stETH from Curve, which was then $246 million. They had been operating frequently between AAVE and wstETH before the sell-off began this week. It is important to note that stETH should be traded with ETH in a 1:1 ratio, as the derivative token stETH can be exchanged for Ethereum once the mainnet merger occurs.</p><p>However, since June 9, the \"peg\" ratio has shown signs of decline, and at one point fell to 0.89.</p><p>June 16 At the time of publication, the stETH to ETH exchange ratio on Curve dropped to 0.93, and the market cap of stETH has dropped to $4 billion from about $10 billion in early May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc497aa733d961bad25f176a45038cb\" tg-width=\"248\" tg-height=\"123\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to data from Nansen, an on-chain data analysis platform, on Tuesday, Three Arrows Capital withdrew 80,000 stETH from Aave, a decentralized lending protocol, and exchanged 38,900 stETH (about $45 million) in two transactions at a spread of 5.6%-5.9%.</p><p>According to The Block, Three Arrows Capital's $400 million position has been liquidated. In addition, cryptocurrency analyst Onchain Wizard also said that if the market continues to fall, Three Arrows Capital's other $300 million position in Aave and Compound will also face liquidation risk.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662147\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8de43451c68f57a0fdb81f66644722a","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TWTR":"Twitter","BK4508":"社交媒体","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4516":"特朗普概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4579":"人工智能","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662147","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243974660","content_text":"继5月中旬稳定币UST和其姊妹代币LUNA遭遇了“死亡踩踏”之后，眼看着币圈从“货币危机”发酵到“银行危机”，随后新的危机接踵而至——这次轮到了对冲基金。有消息人士表示，受到加密货币LUNA和UST暴雷的影响，作为加密货币市场最大的对冲基金之一，三箭资本（Three Arrows Capital）可能将在大量清算后面临破产。据去中心化金融（DeFi）新闻资讯平台The Defiant称，当地时间周二，总部位于迪拜的三箭资本清算了大约4500万美元的stETH，这是一种质押在以太坊信标链上的以太坊（ETH），三箭资本也因此成为过去一周中最大的代币卖家。更令投资者担忧的是，据The Block称，三箭资本在Deribit和BlockFi等借贷平台的清算总额可能高达4亿美元。如果一切属实，那么三箭资本很可能即将面临破产。币圈“雷曼危机”蔓延到了对冲基金在传统金融中，当公司试图通过亏本出售某些资产来偿还债务时，就会发生清算。而在DeFi领域，基金或协议出售加密资产以偿还其债务。作为加密货币市场最大的对冲基金之一，三箭资本的投资组合曾包括Avalanche、Solana、Polkadot和Terra等代币，是币圈对冲基金中不可忽视的“顶流”。有媒体称，三箭资本资产管理规模一度达到100亿美元。然而，在三箭资本曾拥有的强大投资组合中，目前Terra几乎跌至零，Solana和Avalanche在各自创下历史新高以来分别下跌了77%和90%，风投“顶流”似乎陷入了困境。随后，三箭资本的联合创始人Zhu Su的新推文似乎证实了这些猜测，并进一步引发了人们对加密借贷市场潜在连锁反应的担忧。当地时间周二晚间，Zhu Su发表推文称：我们正在与相关方进行沟通，并致力于完全解决这个问题。加密货币市场崩盘：从“货币危机”到“银行危机”在投资者发现对冲基金不对劲之前，币圈银行就已经率先暴雷了。由于近期的美国CPI数据持续超预期上升，并一再刷新40年来新高，美联储发誓要按下高通胀，市场预期美联储将会持续激进加息。受此影响，全球风险资产集体跳水。随着流动性充裕的时代一去不复返，加密货币投资者“瑟瑟发抖”，曾经乘东风直上的加密货币市场“直面寒冬”。不仅第一大市值比特币“跌跌不休”，第三大稳定币UST和其姊妹代币Luna遭遇的“死亡踩踏”更是引发市场震动。华尔街见闻此前文章提及，受到风险资产崩盘的影响，币圈银行、加密借贷巨头Celsius的业务直面暴击。为了防止挤兑，Celsius周一宣布冻结提款，此举引发了市场担忧。投资者担心，如果Celsius被要求停止运营，那么相关数十个DeFi项目、加密货币和其他数字资产都将出现连锁反应。有媒体称，Celsius在业内地位不容小觑，该公司号称拥有170万用户。截至5月17日，该公司拥有价值118亿美元的资产。此外，投资者还担心，Celsius的股东Tether Limited——全球最大稳定币Tether的发行商是否也会被拖下水。要知道，Tether在币圈中是如雷曼兄弟一样的存在。Tether是价值1800亿美元的稳定币领域最大的运营商，在促进整个加密货币市场的交易方面发挥着关键作用，还提供了与主流金融系统的联系，相当于币圈金融基础设施。本周一，Tether在一篇博文中试图与Celsius“保持距离”：虽然在Tether的投资组合中确实包括对公司（Celsius）的投资，但只占我们股东权益的一小部分，这项投资与我们自己的储备或稳定性之间没有相关性。对此，加密媒体公司Blockworks的Saleuddin表示，由于Tether所披露的内容含糊不清，因此无法确切知道Tether的资产正在面临多大风险。三箭资本会是加密熊市中最新倒下的多米诺骨牌吗？在“货币危机”和“银行危机”之后，币圈的新危机蔓延到了对冲基金身上。加密货币交易员Moon Overlord指出，在过去几天中，Celsius并不是stETH的最大卖家。他表示：有人认为Celsius是最大的stETH倾销者，但是事实上，三箭资本才是。三箭资本正在倾销他们拥有的账户和种子轮投资地址，大多数看起来都是为了偿还他们的债务和未偿还的借款。此外，根据DeFi分析师DeFiyst的说法，三箭资本对stETH的“大甩卖”于今年5月Terra的UST稳定币崩盘之后就开始了，他指出：stETH相对于ETH的价格曾在5月份短暂跌至95美分，三箭资本从当时为2.46亿美元的Curve中提取了12.7万stETH。在本周开始抛售之前，他们一直在AAVE和wstETH之间频繁操作。值得注意的是，stETH应该与ETH以1:1的比例交易，因为一旦主网合并发生，衍生代币stETH就可以兑换为以太坊。然而，自从6月9日以来，该“挂钩”比例已经出现下滑迹象，并一度跌至0.89。6月16日截至发稿时，Curve上的stETH与ETH兑换比例跌至0.93，stETH的市值已从5月初的约100亿美元降至40亿美元。链上数据分析平台Nansen的数据显示，本周二，三箭资本从去中心化借贷协议Aave中提取了8万stETH，并在两笔交易中以5.6%-5.9%的价差兑换了3.89万stETH（约4500万美元）。据The Block称，三箭资本的4亿美元头寸已经被清算。此外，加密货币分析师Onchain Wizard还称，如果市场继续下跌，三箭资本在Aave和Compound的另外3亿美元头寸也将面临清算风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".IXIC":0.76,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"TWTR":0.63,"SDOW":0.6,".DJI":0.62,"QNETCN":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053345186,"gmtCreate":1654488169545,"gmtModify":1676535456403,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053345186","repostId":"1183072286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053345308,"gmtCreate":1654488161804,"gmtModify":1676535456403,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053345308","repostId":"1183072286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053342329,"gmtCreate":1654488025561,"gmtModify":1676535456388,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053342329","repostId":"1183072286","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067146434,"gmtCreate":1652431116528,"gmtModify":1676535099444,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067146434","repostId":"1136768096","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136768096","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652407455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136768096?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-13 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class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-13 10:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 13th, Hong Kong stocks opened higher, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 2%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose to 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">Huahong Semiconductor</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311121d8319c865984c3453d966f6946\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open higher and move higher, Hang Seng Tech Index gains extend to 4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open higher and move higher, Hang Seng Tech Index gains extend to 4%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-13 10:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 13th, Hong Kong stocks opened higher, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 2%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose to 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">Huahong Semiconductor</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311121d8319c865984c3453d966f6946\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136768096","content_text":"5月13日，港股高开高走，恒生指数涨超2%，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至4%，华虹半导体涨超10%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9034562120,"gmtCreate":1647921593922,"gmtModify":1676534280555,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034562120","repostId":"2221476056","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221476056","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647919247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221476056?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-22 11:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CICC: Prospects for the 2021 Annual Report of Hong Kong Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221476056","media":"中金点睛","summary":"整体而言，我们目前维持从自上而下策略角度对2022年整个海外中资股盈利增长7.2%的预测","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The 2021 annual report results of overseas Chinese stocks will enter the peak period in mid-to-late March. The performance disclosure of major Chinese stocks, consumption, healthcare and telecommunications sectors will be relatively high; Sectors such as finance, industry and energy are concentrated in the middle and late stages. Under the current turbulent market background, the quality of profits, especially the deviation of expectations, will have a great impact on the subsequent market trend, especially related stocks. In this regard, we combine the market and the forecast of CICC industry analysts to summarize the profitability of ~420 overseas Chinese-funded companies covered by CICC. The following information is worth paying attention to.<b>Performance Preview: Double-digit growth in 2021, but the growth rate turned negative in the second half of the year; Upstream cycle ranks first, Internet consumption lags behind</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, the overseas Chinese shares covered by CICC are expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2021; However, the growth was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the growth rate turned negative in the second half of the year.</b>Based on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Industry analysts' forecasts for the covered stocks are denominated in RMB to exclude the impact of exchange rate factors. After we summarize them from the bottom up,<b>The profits of more than 420 overseas Chinese-funded stocks covered by CICC in 2021 are expected to increase by 16% year-on-year.</b>A clear rebound from-3% in 2020 reflects the recovery of the overall economy and corporate earnings after the pandemic. However, this level has significantly slowed down from the 40% growth that has been realized in the first half of the year, implying that the growth rate has turned negative in the second half of the year. This is consistent with the macro background of the overall slowdown of China's economy from the second half of last year and the tightening of Internet regulation. Further excluding the impact of the epidemic, CICC industry analysts predict<b>The two-year compound growth rate of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in 2021 was 6.3%, lower than the year-on-year growth of 17% in 2019, and has not yet returned to the pre-pandemic level.</b>In terms of split, the annual growth rate of cyclical industries in 2021 dropped most obviously compared with the first half of the year. It is expected that the profit will drop from 131% in the first half of the year to 28% year-on-year, but it is still strong compared with other sectors horizontally. The performance of defensive sectors is also expected to decline, from 38% in the first half of the year to 24% in the whole year; The financial sector expects a smaller decline in net profit, from 11% in the first half of the year to 9% for the full year.</p><p><b>2) In terms of industries, the growth rate of upstream raw materials, transportation, textiles and clothing, etc. is the top, but the growth rate of Internet, catering, media entertainment and offline consumption lags behind.</b>Driven by higher prices of energy and some materials, the upstream raw materials and energy sectors are expected to achieve growth of more than 150%. The transportation industry is also expected to have a top net profit growth due to the common factors of capacity shortage and strong external demand. In contrast, sectors such as Internet retail and media entertainment, which experienced strong earnings growth during the pandemic, are expected to experience negative growth in 2021, mainly dragged down by factors such as the slowdown of domestic economic growth, strengthened regulation and intensified industry competition. In addition, in 2021, the pandemic repeatedly suppressed the demand for catering, hotels and gaming, and the profit growth of the offline consumption segment, which was greatly affected by the pandemic, continued to be sluggish.</p><p><b>3) Compared with market expectations,</b>The 16% growth rate predicted by CICC industry analysts in 2021 is basically in line with market expectations (17%). For 2022, the earnings growth rate forecast by CICC industry analysts is flat at 16%, which is higher than the current market expectation of 13%. The main gap comes from the expectation of financial (insurance) and cyclical sectors, which is higher than the current market consensus expectation.</p><p><b>4) Profit forecast and accident,</b>Among the companies that have announced their performance forecasts, most of the performance forecasts of raw materials, energy and real estate are positive, while information technology and transportation are differentiated, while downstream consumption and public utilities are mostly negative. In terms of individual stocks whose performance deviates from expectations, CICC industry analysts believe that the performance of some energy, real estate, Internet games and software companies may be lower than expected.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth and marginal decline in upstream prices will help profit repair; Pay attention to the timing of policy efforts and the impact of supervision on some sectors</b></p><p>Although full-year earnings of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 rebounded from the impact of the pandemic in 2020, the repair was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Since the second half of the year, the pressure faced by the domestic economy has increased, and the disturbance of various internal and external uncertainties has gradually increased, and the profit pressure has gradually increased. Against this background,<b>MSCI China's earnings forecast continues to be lowered, which also reflects the market's relatively cautious expectation of domestic growth.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, under the backdrop of the gradual implementation of domestic policies to stabilize growth, continuous monetary easing and marginal decline in upstream prices since the end of 2021,<b>We expect that the profit growth is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound, which in turn will drive the recovery of corporate revenue and profit. However, the stabilization time may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent steady growth, especially in the financial and real estate fields.</b>From the perspective of the internal structure of the sector, the fall or slowdown of upstream prices will alleviate the cost pressure of the middle and downstream sectors and help the profit repair of the middle and downstream consumer sectors. Judging from the adjustment and changes of profit consensus expectations since the beginning of the year, the profit adjustment of the upstream (raw materials, energy) sector has slowed down significantly, and the profit adjustment of the downstream sector has also narrowed significantly, with semiconductors and medical equipment taking the lead. However, the profit prospect of the Internet sector may also have to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies. Overall,<b>We currently maintain our forecast for overall overseas Chinese equity earnings growth of 7.2% in 2022 from a top-down strategy perspective</b>(Non-financial sector increased 8.6% and financial sector 5.9%). After the full-year results are disclosed, we will re-examine whether we need to further adjust the above profit expectations in light of the latest earnings and the progress of subsequent policies.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>Disclosure time: Mid-to-late March is the disclosure intensive period</h3>According to the forecast information provided by Bloomberg Information, the peak period of the 2021 annual report performance period of overseas Chinese-funded stocks (Chinese-funded companies listed in Hong Kong, China and the United States) will be in the middle and late March, and about 75% of listed companies will release their annual report results in the last two weeks of March.</p><p>From the disclosure progress of different sectors, we expect that the optional consumption, real estate and information technology sectors of overseas Chinese-funded stocks will kick off the performance period first, and communication service companies will start to release annual reports intensively in mid-March, while the performance releases of industry, energy and finance sectors will be more concentrated at the end of March.</p><p>In terms of individual stocks, U.S. -listed Chinese concept stocks (e.g.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>etc.) have announced their annual results for the fourth quarter of 2021 in early March, while some Hong Kong listed companies with large market capitalization (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">ICBC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life</a>etc) will announce its 2021 results in mid-to-late March and deserve to be watched closely.</p><p><b>Chart: The 2021 performance period kicked off in late February, with a peak in mid-to-late March</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c874655a87c492454f82c0c54fe053\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source of data : Bloomberg, FactSet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Industrials mostly releases results in the early stages, while the optional consumer, financial and energy sectors are concentrated in the later stages</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135bd0bb6369c34cc6b21ef679dd59e1\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Performance Preview: Double-digit growth for 2021, but negative growth in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>Overall: Double-digit growth for the whole year of 2021, with high and low pace</b></p><p>In order to gain a better understanding of the full-year earnings growth in 2021, we conducted an internal questionnaire survey of the views and forecasts of CICC industry analysts on approximately 421 overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC (including Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, China and the United States), and summarized the analysis from a bottom-up perspective. Although the sampling scope is limited to the samples covered by CICC, considering that the covered companies are all leaders in various industries, it can basically reflect the overall performance of 2021.</p><p>The bottom-up survey summary results show that under the comparable caliber (stocks whose fiscal year ends not in December or without profit forecast are not included in the statistical scope) and based on RMB (so that the impact of exchange rate changes can be excluded), the overall full-year profit of the overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC in 2021 is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year, slowing down from the 40% growth in the first half of 2021. In the second half of the year alone, the profit growth rate may turn slightly negative (-2%), mainly due to the combined impact of factors such as increasing economic growth and regulatory pressure, weak consumption growth, rising upstream raw material prices and energy supply shortage. Excluding the factors of the epidemic base, CICC industry analysts predict that the compound growth rate of the two-year net profit of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in 2021 will be 6.3%, which is still significantly lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 17% in 2019. Looking ahead to 2022, our aggregate shows that the overall earnings of the sample of overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC are expected to maintain double-digit growth of 16% in 2022, which is approximately 3ppt higher than the consensus market estimate.</p><p><b>Chart: Based on the forecast of CICC industry analysts, bottom-up summary of 2021 performance preview (RMB caliber)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50530af5fb60f7cf894d171b2a782b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research; Data as of March 5, 2022; Based on Bloomberg Consensus</p><p><b>Chart: Earnings Growth of Overseas Chinese Stocks by Category</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/096aee1d55abc5b336cd0c410737ae77\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Bottom-up summary based on CICC industry analysts' expectations</p><p>Further specifically, we find that the following aspects deserve attention:</p><p><b>► Profit growth rate of large sectors:</b>For the sample of overseas Chinese-funded stocks covered by CICC, based on the RMB caliber and the forecast of CICC industry analysts, CICC industry analysts expect that the net profit of cyclical industries in 2021 will increase by 28% year-on-year; Financial segment net profit increased by 9%; The performance of the defensive sector is expected to grow by 24%. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Financial industry</b>(Banking, Insurance and Diversified Finance) is expected to rebound from-14% in 2020 to 9% year-on-year growth rate in full-year net profit in 2021 under the RMB caliber, but slower than the 11% growth rate in the first half of the year. Among them, the insurance segment is the main drag, and the net profit for the whole year is expected to decline by 1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed from-7% in 2020. In comparison, the net profit of diversified finance is expected to increase by 31%, which is further improved from the growth of 19% in 2020. CICC analysts expect the full-year performance of the banking sector to increase by 10% year-on-year, which is obviously repaired from the negative growth of-1% in 2020.</p><p><b>2) Defensive industries</b>(Telecom, Utilities, Healthcare and Daily Consumer segments) are expected to grow full-year earnings by 24%, slowing from the 38% growth seen in the first half. Among them, the profit growth rate of public utilities sector is expected to slow down significantly.</p><p><b>3) Cyclical industries</b>Net profit rebounded strongly by 131% in the first half of 2021, but growth is expected to slow to 28% for the full year of 2021. In the second half of 2021, the overall economic growth rate slowed down, and the profit growth rate of cyclical industries decreased significantly and the differentiation intensified under various factors such as the pandemic, supply chain bottlenecks, rising energy and shipping prices, and the implementation of regulatory policies. The upstream raw materials (metals and mining, coal, petrochemicals, etc.) and transportation segments are expected to grow their net profit at a year-on-year rate of more than 150% in 2021. However, the growth rate of online sectors (Internet, e-commerce, etc.) turned sharply negative after the rapid growth in 2020. The property sector, which is greatly affected by the policy, is expected to have a year-on-year decline in net profit of-6% in 2021.</p><p><b>► Future growth trends:</b>In 2021, the overall performance growth rate of overseas Chinese-funded stocks showed a trend of high before and low after. At the beginning of the year, the economy rebounded rapidly from the pandemic, but in the second half of the year, the growth slowed down significantly or even turned negative due to various internal and external factors. From the perspective of the two-year growth rate, the overall growth in 2021 was still weaker than the pre-pandemic level. Entering 2022, the steady growth of domestic policies has been confirmed, and the overall economic growth rate may gradually recover, driving the profit growth rate of Chinese-funded enterprises to rebound. CICC industry analysts forecast that overseas Chinese equity earnings in 2022 will be the same as in 2021 overall (16% growth rate). The growth rate of the financial sector is expected to rise to 11% from 9% in 2021, the growth rate of the cyclical sector is expected to decline from 28% to 21%, and the growth rate of the defensive sector is expected to decline from 24% to 21%.</p><p><b>► Comparing market expectations:</b>The 2021 forecast of CICC industry analysts is relatively close to the market consensus expectation. For 2021, the earnings growth rate based on CICC industry analysts' forecasts (16%) is slightly lower than market expectations (17%), with financial slightly higher (CICC expects 9% vs. market consensus expectation of 8%), while cyclical and defensive are both slightly lower (CICC industry analysts expect cyclical and defensive industries to achieve positive growth of 28.4% and 23.7%, respectively, both slightly lower than market expectations of 31.0% and 23.8%).</p><p><b>By sector: chemicals, transportation, metals, textiles and clothing, coal, oil and gas have the top growth rate; Internet, catering, media, real estate lagging behind</b></p><p>The upstream raw materials and chemical sectors (such as chemicals, metals, coal, oil and gas, etc.) are expected to have a high performance growth rate in 2021. This is partly due to the low base in 2020, but the more critical factor behind it is the rebound in the global economy and the rapid rise in raw material prices amid constrained energy supply, which boosted the sector's profit margins. Similarly, under the combined effect of the global supply chain shock and the rebound of overseas demand, the sharp increase in shipping prices drove the net profit growth rate of the transportation sector to increase sharply. In addition, driven by new consumption trends such as the rise of domestic products, textiles and apparel are expected to achieve strong net profit growth in 2021.</p><p>On the contrary, the Internet sector, which has been less affected by the epidemic, is expected to fall back after the rapid growth in 2020. The net profit growth rate of the Internet retail and media segment in 2021 is expected to decline to-151% and-12% from 252% and 102% in 2020. For the online segment, 2021 faced multiple headwinds such as high base, economic slowdown, increased regulatory pressure and intensified industry competition. The overall growth of domestic online consumption has also slowed down, which is different from other markets around the world. At the same time, the profit growth rate of the real estate sector is also expected to decline due to policy constraints, from 6% growth in 2020 to-6% growth in 2021. The profit growth rate of catering, hotel, gaming and other sectors, which were greatly affected by the domestic epidemic repeatedly, continued to be sluggish.</p><p>Looking forward to 2022, with the further efforts of domestic policies to stabilize growth, we believe that the economic growth rate is also expected to gradually pick up in the second half of the year. CICC industry analysts expect that the profit growth rate of some upstream sectors (chemicals, metals, etc.) and transportation sector is expected to decline, but it still maintains a relatively high growth rate; Some middle and downstream sectors, such as automobiles and essential consumption, are also expected to pick up driven by economic growth; The Internet sector is expected to stabilize after a sharp drop in earnings in 2021.</p><p><b>Chart: Upstream raw materials and transportation segments are expected to top earnings growth in 2021, while consumer internet results are flat</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95890cb1fce4b51a84ece4d508166da\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: CICC industry analysts expect most sectors to return to positive growth in 2022</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050470cd569b8e6949557c6abadfd708\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research</p><p><h3>Performance Forecast: Obvious Differentiation between Upstream Middle and Lower</h3>Hong Kong stock companies concentrated on disclosing their 2021 results in mid-to-late March, but according to the statistics of Wind data, as of March 2, 2022, 394 Hong Kong stock listed companies have announced their performance forecasts. From this, we can predict the profitability of some industries in advance. In the second half of 2021, boosted by the sharp increase in global raw material prices, the performance of upstream companies in Hong Kong stocks continued to improve, while the profit margins of midstream and downstream sectors were squeezed. Among the companies that have announced their performance forecasts, the proportion of companies with positive forecasts in raw materials and energy sectors is as high as 74% and 73%. In contrast, the performance forecasts of the middle and downstream sectors, such as daily consumption and public utilities, are mostly negative.</p><p><b>► Raw materials</b>Many leading mining metals companies in the segment are expected to achieve earnings growth of more than 100% in 2021, mainly benefiting from factors such as strong downstream demand driven by domestic and overseas economic recovery, and the low base of raw material prices in 2020.</p><p><b>► energy</b>The overall performance of the segment benefited from the rebound in energy prices, with crude oil and coal prices rising rapidly under the combined impact of supply constraints and rebound in global demand.</p><p><b>► Transportation</b>In 2021, the profit differentiation of the segment is obvious. Driven by high shipping prices, the leading shipping company is expected to achieve a higher profit growth rate. In contrast, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the performance of air transportation continued to be sluggish.</p><p><b>► Public utilities</b>In 2021, the overall performance of the thermal power sector was under pressure due to the high coal price, and many companies turned from profit to loss.</p><p><b>► Information Technology</b>The internal differentiation of the profits of the sector is obvious. The earnings growth rate of the semiconductor industry has risen sharply. The overall performance of the software service sector is under pressure, and 61% of the company's performance forecasts are negative.</p><p><b>► Optional consumption</b>The overall performance forecast of the sector is neutral. The proportion of companies with positive results announcements in retail, automobile and durable goods clothing sub-sectors is 63%, 56% and 43% respectively. Under the influence of the repeated epidemic and the implementation of the double reduction policy in the education sector, the proportion of positive companies in the consumer service sub-sector is only 35%.</p><p>We analyze the stock price around the release date of the release of the results forecast. We found that the positive announcement outperformed the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index by an average of 0.3ppt (outperform probability 44.4%) within 3 days before the release of the positive announcement, and underperformed by an average of 1.8ppt (outperform probability 41.7%) within 3 days after the release. On the other hand, issuing a negative performance forecast may drag down the performance of the stock price, resulting in the stock price underperforming the Hang Seng HSCEI by an average of 0.9ppt (underperforming probability 38.5%) in the three days following the announcement.</p><p><b>Chart: Summary of Profit Forecast of Secondary Industry of Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fffb47feb4bd406a7e0463843344851b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC</p><p><b>Chart: A glance at the performance forecast of H-share listed companies with market capitalization above $5 billion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d2f2acd6f54765b9e8b6887447397b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of March 2, 2022; Based on Bloomberg Consensus</p><p><b>Earnings Surprise: A Summary of CICC Industry Analysts' Views</b></p><p>Based on the internal investigation of CICC industry analysts, we have sorted out the list of stocks that our industry analysts think may exceed or lower than expected in the future from a bottom-up perspective. For details, please refer to the original report released by CICC. We advise investors to pay close attention to the above stocks during the annual reporting period and the impact that performance beating or below expectations may have on the share price.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth will help profit repair; Industry differentiation is expected to converge</b></p><p>In 2021, China's economy took the lead in emerging from the impact of the pandemic, but the growth rate slowed down significantly in the second half of the year due to external shocks and internal structural factors. The overall growth of overseas Chinese stocks was high before and low after, and the differentiation intensified. Although it is expected to achieve a high-speed growth of nearly 16% for the whole of 2021, it is still not as good as pre-pandemic levels after smoothing out the impact of the pandemic base. Looking ahead,</p><p><b>► Although China's economic growth is still under great pressure, the income side is expected to gradually stabilize under the further efforts of policies.</b>From the consensus expectation adjustment range of the market, it is not difficult to see that the profit forecast of Chinese-funded enterprises has been continuously lowered since the beginning of 2021, which reflects the pessimistic expectation of the overall economic growth slowdown. However, the domestic policy of \"steady growth\" is gradually exerting force. After the central bank lowered the bank deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate several times since the second half of 2021, the macro data also picked up significantly in February. The Government Work Report of the Two Sessions in 2022 set an economic growth target of 5.5%, further confirming the determination of the policy to \"stabilize growth\". Future fiscal policy and infrastructure investment are also worthy of attention. We believe that although the market is still facing the pressure of downward profit revision, with the recovery of domestic growth, the income side of Chinese-funded enterprises is expected to return to normal.<b>However, the stabilization time may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent steady growth efforts, especially in fiscal stimulus and local areas.</b>In addition, the profit outlook of the Internet sector may have to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies.</p><p><b>► The fall of PPI-CPI scissors boosted the rebound of downstream profit margins.</b>In the second half of 2021, the price of raw materials increased sharply, pushing the PPI-CPI scissors gap to a historically high level, and the differentiation between upstream raw materials/transportation and midstream and downstream consumption performance growth rates intensified. Since the end of 2021, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has gradually come into effect, and the price of upstream raw materials has peaked and dropped. We believe that the gradual narrowing of the PPI-CPI scissor gap is expected to alleviate the previous cost pressure faced by midstream and downstream enterprises. The profit margins of upstream and middle and downstream sectors may also gradually converge. From the perspective of market consensus expectations, the average profit consensus expectation of upstream sectors (such as energy, raw materials, etc.) has been increased by only about 1% since the beginning of the year, while the average profit consensus expectation of midstream sectors (medical equipment, semiconductors, etc.) has been increased by 13%. The magnitude of downstream earnings downward revisions also slowed significantly (-3%). However, external uncertainty remains a cause for concern. Recently, the price of some commodities has risen again, which may affect our judgment to some extent. Overall, we believe that the impact of external factors may have limited impact on China's domestic fundamentals.</p><p>As noted in our 2022 Outlook Report, we are currently maintaining our forecast for earnings growth of 7.2% year-over-year for overseas Chinese stocks in 2021, with non-financial segment net profit growth of 8.6% compared to 5.9% growth in the financial segment. We will review whether further adjustments are necessary in light of the latest situation after the full-year results are disclosed.</p><p><b>Chart: The gradual stabilization of economic growth will promote the overall improvement of income of Chinese-funded enterprises</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555cac30a1d887f4899330123fedd18b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC</p><p><b>Chart: YTD mid-upstream sector earnings consensus estimates are still upward, but downstream revisions have narrowed</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79b50884b078eae0073ff283936fb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: Prospects for the 2021 Annual Report of Hong Kong Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: Prospects for the 2021 Annual Report of Hong Kong Stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-22 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The 2021 annual report results of overseas Chinese stocks will enter the peak period in mid-to-late March. The performance disclosure of major Chinese stocks, consumption, healthcare and telecommunications sectors will be relatively high; Sectors such as finance, industry and energy are concentrated in the middle and late stages. Under the current turbulent market background, the quality of profits, especially the deviation of expectations, will have a great impact on the subsequent market trend, especially related stocks. In this regard, we combine the market and the forecast of CICC industry analysts to summarize the profitability of ~420 overseas Chinese-funded companies covered by CICC. The following information is worth paying attention to.<b>Performance Preview: Double-digit growth in 2021, but the growth rate turned negative in the second half of the year; Upstream cycle ranks first, Internet consumption lags behind</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, the overseas Chinese shares covered by CICC are expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2021; However, the growth was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the growth rate turned negative in the second half of the year.</b>Based on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Industry analysts' forecasts for the covered stocks are denominated in RMB to exclude the impact of exchange rate factors. After we summarize them from the bottom up,<b>The profits of more than 420 overseas Chinese-funded stocks covered by CICC in 2021 are expected to increase by 16% year-on-year.</b>A clear rebound from-3% in 2020 reflects the recovery of the overall economy and corporate earnings after the pandemic. However, this level has significantly slowed down from the 40% growth that has been realized in the first half of the year, implying that the growth rate has turned negative in the second half of the year. This is consistent with the macro background of the overall slowdown of China's economy from the second half of last year and the tightening of Internet regulation. Further excluding the impact of the epidemic, CICC industry analysts predict<b>The two-year compound growth rate of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in 2021 was 6.3%, lower than the year-on-year growth of 17% in 2019, and has not yet returned to the pre-pandemic level.</b>In terms of split, the annual growth rate of cyclical industries in 2021 dropped most obviously compared with the first half of the year. It is expected that the profit will drop from 131% in the first half of the year to 28% year-on-year, but it is still strong compared with other sectors horizontally. The performance of defensive sectors is also expected to decline, from 38% in the first half of the year to 24% in the whole year; The financial sector expects a smaller decline in net profit, from 11% in the first half of the year to 9% for the full year.</p><p><b>2) In terms of industries, the growth rate of upstream raw materials, transportation, textiles and clothing, etc. is the top, but the growth rate of Internet, catering, media entertainment and offline consumption lags behind.</b>Driven by higher prices of energy and some materials, the upstream raw materials and energy sectors are expected to achieve growth of more than 150%. The transportation industry is also expected to have a top net profit growth due to the common factors of capacity shortage and strong external demand. In contrast, sectors such as Internet retail and media entertainment, which experienced strong earnings growth during the pandemic, are expected to experience negative growth in 2021, mainly dragged down by factors such as the slowdown of domestic economic growth, strengthened regulation and intensified industry competition. In addition, in 2021, the pandemic repeatedly suppressed the demand for catering, hotels and gaming, and the profit growth of the offline consumption segment, which was greatly affected by the pandemic, continued to be sluggish.</p><p><b>3) Compared with market expectations,</b>The 16% growth rate predicted by CICC industry analysts in 2021 is basically in line with market expectations (17%). For 2022, the earnings growth rate forecast by CICC industry analysts is flat at 16%, which is higher than the current market expectation of 13%. The main gap comes from the expectation of financial (insurance) and cyclical sectors, which is higher than the current market consensus expectation.</p><p><b>4) Profit forecast and accident,</b>Among the companies that have announced their performance forecasts, most of the performance forecasts of raw materials, energy and real estate are positive, while information technology and transportation are differentiated, while downstream consumption and public utilities are mostly negative. In terms of individual stocks whose performance deviates from expectations, CICC industry analysts believe that the performance of some energy, real estate, Internet games and software companies may be lower than expected.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth and marginal decline in upstream prices will help profit repair; Pay attention to the timing of policy efforts and the impact of supervision on some sectors</b></p><p>Although full-year earnings of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 rebounded from the impact of the pandemic in 2020, the repair was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Since the second half of the year, the pressure faced by the domestic economy has increased, and the disturbance of various internal and external uncertainties has gradually increased, and the profit pressure has gradually increased. Against this background,<b>MSCI China's earnings forecast continues to be lowered, which also reflects the market's relatively cautious expectation of domestic growth.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, under the backdrop of the gradual implementation of domestic policies to stabilize growth, continuous monetary easing and marginal decline in upstream prices since the end of 2021,<b>We expect that the profit growth is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound, which in turn will drive the recovery of corporate revenue and profit. However, the stabilization time may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent steady growth, especially in the financial and real estate fields.</b>From the perspective of the internal structure of the sector, the fall or slowdown of upstream prices will alleviate the cost pressure of the middle and downstream sectors and help the profit repair of the middle and downstream consumer sectors. Judging from the adjustment and changes of profit consensus expectations since the beginning of the year, the profit adjustment of the upstream (raw materials, energy) sector has slowed down significantly, and the profit adjustment of the downstream sector has also narrowed significantly, with semiconductors and medical equipment taking the lead. However, the profit prospect of the Internet sector may also have to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies. Overall,<b>We currently maintain our forecast for overall overseas Chinese equity earnings growth of 7.2% in 2022 from a top-down strategy perspective</b>(Non-financial sector increased 8.6% and financial sector 5.9%). After the full-year results are disclosed, we will re-examine whether we need to further adjust the above profit expectations in light of the latest earnings and the progress of subsequent policies.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><h3>Disclosure time: Mid-to-late March is the disclosure intensive period</h3>According to the forecast information provided by Bloomberg Information, the peak period of the 2021 annual report performance period of overseas Chinese-funded stocks (Chinese-funded companies listed in Hong Kong, China and the United States) will be in the middle and late March, and about 75% of listed companies will release their annual report results in the last two weeks of March.</p><p>From the disclosure progress of different sectors, we expect that the optional consumption, real estate and information technology sectors of overseas Chinese-funded stocks will kick off the performance period first, and communication service companies will start to release annual reports intensively in mid-March, while the performance releases of industry, energy and finance sectors will be more concentrated at the end of March.</p><p>In terms of individual stocks, U.S. -listed Chinese concept stocks (e.g.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>etc.) have announced their annual results for the fourth quarter of 2021 in early March, while some Hong Kong listed companies with large market capitalization (such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">ICBC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFC\">China Life</a>etc) will announce its 2021 results in mid-to-late March and deserve to be watched closely.</p><p><b>Chart: The 2021 performance period kicked off in late February, with a peak in mid-to-late March</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c874655a87c492454f82c0c54fe053\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source of data : Bloomberg, FactSet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Industrials mostly releases results in the early stages, while the optional consumer, financial and energy sectors are concentrated in the later stages</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135bd0bb6369c34cc6b21ef679dd59e1\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Performance Preview: Double-digit growth for 2021, but negative growth in the second half of the year</b></p><p><b>Overall: Double-digit growth for the whole year of 2021, with high and low pace</b></p><p>In order to gain a better understanding of the full-year earnings growth in 2021, we conducted an internal questionnaire survey of the views and forecasts of CICC industry analysts on approximately 421 overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC (including Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, China and the United States), and summarized the analysis from a bottom-up perspective. Although the sampling scope is limited to the samples covered by CICC, considering that the covered companies are all leaders in various industries, it can basically reflect the overall performance of 2021.</p><p>The bottom-up survey summary results show that under the comparable caliber (stocks whose fiscal year ends not in December or without profit forecast are not included in the statistical scope) and based on RMB (so that the impact of exchange rate changes can be excluded), the overall full-year profit of the overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC in 2021 is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year, slowing down from the 40% growth in the first half of 2021. In the second half of the year alone, the profit growth rate may turn slightly negative (-2%), mainly due to the combined impact of factors such as increasing economic growth and regulatory pressure, weak consumption growth, rising upstream raw material prices and energy supply shortage. Excluding the factors of the epidemic base, CICC industry analysts predict that the compound growth rate of the two-year net profit of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in 2021 will be 6.3%, which is still significantly lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 17% in 2019. Looking ahead to 2022, our aggregate shows that the overall earnings of the sample of overseas Chinese stocks covered by CICC are expected to maintain double-digit growth of 16% in 2022, which is approximately 3ppt higher than the consensus market estimate.</p><p><b>Chart: Based on the forecast of CICC industry analysts, bottom-up summary of 2021 performance preview (RMB caliber)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50530af5fb60f7cf894d171b2a782b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research; Data as of March 5, 2022; Based on Bloomberg Consensus</p><p><b>Chart: Earnings Growth of Overseas Chinese Stocks by Category</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/096aee1d55abc5b336cd0c410737ae77\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Bottom-up summary based on CICC industry analysts' expectations</p><p>Further specifically, we find that the following aspects deserve attention:</p><p><b>► Profit growth rate of large sectors:</b>For the sample of overseas Chinese-funded stocks covered by CICC, based on the RMB caliber and the forecast of CICC industry analysts, CICC industry analysts expect that the net profit of cyclical industries in 2021 will increase by 28% year-on-year; Financial segment net profit increased by 9%; The performance of the defensive sector is expected to grow by 24%. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Financial industry</b>(Banking, Insurance and Diversified Finance) is expected to rebound from-14% in 2020 to 9% year-on-year growth rate in full-year net profit in 2021 under the RMB caliber, but slower than the 11% growth rate in the first half of the year. Among them, the insurance segment is the main drag, and the net profit for the whole year is expected to decline by 1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed from-7% in 2020. In comparison, the net profit of diversified finance is expected to increase by 31%, which is further improved from the growth of 19% in 2020. CICC analysts expect the full-year performance of the banking sector to increase by 10% year-on-year, which is obviously repaired from the negative growth of-1% in 2020.</p><p><b>2) Defensive industries</b>(Telecom, Utilities, Healthcare and Daily Consumer segments) are expected to grow full-year earnings by 24%, slowing from the 38% growth seen in the first half. Among them, the profit growth rate of public utilities sector is expected to slow down significantly.</p><p><b>3) Cyclical industries</b>Net profit rebounded strongly by 131% in the first half of 2021, but growth is expected to slow to 28% for the full year of 2021. In the second half of 2021, the overall economic growth rate slowed down, and the profit growth rate of cyclical industries decreased significantly and the differentiation intensified under various factors such as the pandemic, supply chain bottlenecks, rising energy and shipping prices, and the implementation of regulatory policies. The upstream raw materials (metals and mining, coal, petrochemicals, etc.) and transportation segments are expected to grow their net profit at a year-on-year rate of more than 150% in 2021. However, the growth rate of online sectors (Internet, e-commerce, etc.) turned sharply negative after the rapid growth in 2020. The property sector, which is greatly affected by the policy, is expected to have a year-on-year decline in net profit of-6% in 2021.</p><p><b>► Future growth trends:</b>In 2021, the overall performance growth rate of overseas Chinese-funded stocks showed a trend of high before and low after. At the beginning of the year, the economy rebounded rapidly from the pandemic, but in the second half of the year, the growth slowed down significantly or even turned negative due to various internal and external factors. From the perspective of the two-year growth rate, the overall growth in 2021 was still weaker than the pre-pandemic level. Entering 2022, the steady growth of domestic policies has been confirmed, and the overall economic growth rate may gradually recover, driving the profit growth rate of Chinese-funded enterprises to rebound. CICC industry analysts forecast that overseas Chinese equity earnings in 2022 will be the same as in 2021 overall (16% growth rate). The growth rate of the financial sector is expected to rise to 11% from 9% in 2021, the growth rate of the cyclical sector is expected to decline from 28% to 21%, and the growth rate of the defensive sector is expected to decline from 24% to 21%.</p><p><b>► Comparing market expectations:</b>The 2021 forecast of CICC industry analysts is relatively close to the market consensus expectation. For 2021, the earnings growth rate based on CICC industry analysts' forecasts (16%) is slightly lower than market expectations (17%), with financial slightly higher (CICC expects 9% vs. market consensus expectation of 8%), while cyclical and defensive are both slightly lower (CICC industry analysts expect cyclical and defensive industries to achieve positive growth of 28.4% and 23.7%, respectively, both slightly lower than market expectations of 31.0% and 23.8%).</p><p><b>By sector: chemicals, transportation, metals, textiles and clothing, coal, oil and gas have the top growth rate; Internet, catering, media, real estate lagging behind</b></p><p>The upstream raw materials and chemical sectors (such as chemicals, metals, coal, oil and gas, etc.) are expected to have a high performance growth rate in 2021. This is partly due to the low base in 2020, but the more critical factor behind it is the rebound in the global economy and the rapid rise in raw material prices amid constrained energy supply, which boosted the sector's profit margins. Similarly, under the combined effect of the global supply chain shock and the rebound of overseas demand, the sharp increase in shipping prices drove the net profit growth rate of the transportation sector to increase sharply. In addition, driven by new consumption trends such as the rise of domestic products, textiles and apparel are expected to achieve strong net profit growth in 2021.</p><p>On the contrary, the Internet sector, which has been less affected by the epidemic, is expected to fall back after the rapid growth in 2020. The net profit growth rate of the Internet retail and media segment in 2021 is expected to decline to-151% and-12% from 252% and 102% in 2020. For the online segment, 2021 faced multiple headwinds such as high base, economic slowdown, increased regulatory pressure and intensified industry competition. The overall growth of domestic online consumption has also slowed down, which is different from other markets around the world. At the same time, the profit growth rate of the real estate sector is also expected to decline due to policy constraints, from 6% growth in 2020 to-6% growth in 2021. The profit growth rate of catering, hotel, gaming and other sectors, which were greatly affected by the domestic epidemic repeatedly, continued to be sluggish.</p><p>Looking forward to 2022, with the further efforts of domestic policies to stabilize growth, we believe that the economic growth rate is also expected to gradually pick up in the second half of the year. CICC industry analysts expect that the profit growth rate of some upstream sectors (chemicals, metals, etc.) and transportation sector is expected to decline, but it still maintains a relatively high growth rate; Some middle and downstream sectors, such as automobiles and essential consumption, are also expected to pick up driven by economic growth; The Internet sector is expected to stabilize after a sharp drop in earnings in 2021.</p><p><b>Chart: Upstream raw materials and transportation segments are expected to top earnings growth in 2021, while consumer internet results are flat</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95890cb1fce4b51a84ece4d508166da\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: CICC industry analysts expect most sectors to return to positive growth in 2022</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050470cd569b8e6949557c6abadfd708\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research</p><p><h3>Performance Forecast: Obvious Differentiation between Upstream Middle and Lower</h3>Hong Kong stock companies concentrated on disclosing their 2021 results in mid-to-late March, but according to the statistics of Wind data, as of March 2, 2022, 394 Hong Kong stock listed companies have announced their performance forecasts. From this, we can predict the profitability of some industries in advance. In the second half of 2021, boosted by the sharp increase in global raw material prices, the performance of upstream companies in Hong Kong stocks continued to improve, while the profit margins of midstream and downstream sectors were squeezed. Among the companies that have announced their performance forecasts, the proportion of companies with positive forecasts in raw materials and energy sectors is as high as 74% and 73%. In contrast, the performance forecasts of the middle and downstream sectors, such as daily consumption and public utilities, are mostly negative.</p><p><b>► Raw materials</b>Many leading mining metals companies in the segment are expected to achieve earnings growth of more than 100% in 2021, mainly benefiting from factors such as strong downstream demand driven by domestic and overseas economic recovery, and the low base of raw material prices in 2020.</p><p><b>► energy</b>The overall performance of the segment benefited from the rebound in energy prices, with crude oil and coal prices rising rapidly under the combined impact of supply constraints and rebound in global demand.</p><p><b>► Transportation</b>In 2021, the profit differentiation of the segment is obvious. Driven by high shipping prices, the leading shipping company is expected to achieve a higher profit growth rate. In contrast, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the performance of air transportation continued to be sluggish.</p><p><b>► Public utilities</b>In 2021, the overall performance of the thermal power sector was under pressure due to the high coal price, and many companies turned from profit to loss.</p><p><b>► Information Technology</b>The internal differentiation of the profits of the sector is obvious. The earnings growth rate of the semiconductor industry has risen sharply. The overall performance of the software service sector is under pressure, and 61% of the company's performance forecasts are negative.</p><p><b>► Optional consumption</b>The overall performance forecast of the sector is neutral. The proportion of companies with positive results announcements in retail, automobile and durable goods clothing sub-sectors is 63%, 56% and 43% respectively. Under the influence of the repeated epidemic and the implementation of the double reduction policy in the education sector, the proportion of positive companies in the consumer service sub-sector is only 35%.</p><p>We analyze the stock price around the release date of the release of the results forecast. We found that the positive announcement outperformed the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index by an average of 0.3ppt (outperform probability 44.4%) within 3 days before the release of the positive announcement, and underperformed by an average of 1.8ppt (outperform probability 41.7%) within 3 days after the release. On the other hand, issuing a negative performance forecast may drag down the performance of the stock price, resulting in the stock price underperforming the Hang Seng HSCEI by an average of 0.9ppt (underperforming probability 38.5%) in the three days following the announcement.</p><p><b>Chart: Summary of Profit Forecast of Secondary Industry of Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fffb47feb4bd406a7e0463843344851b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC</p><p><b>Chart: A glance at the performance forecast of H-share listed companies with market capitalization above $5 billion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d2f2acd6f54765b9e8b6887447397b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of March 2, 2022; Based on Bloomberg Consensus</p><p><b>Earnings Surprise: A Summary of CICC Industry Analysts' Views</b></p><p>Based on the internal investigation of CICC industry analysts, we have sorted out the list of stocks that our industry analysts think may exceed or lower than expected in the future from a bottom-up perspective. For details, please refer to the original report released by CICC. We advise investors to pay close attention to the above stocks during the annual reporting period and the impact that performance beating or below expectations may have on the share price.</p><p><b>Outlook: Steady growth will help profit repair; Industry differentiation is expected to converge</b></p><p>In 2021, China's economy took the lead in emerging from the impact of the pandemic, but the growth rate slowed down significantly in the second half of the year due to external shocks and internal structural factors. The overall growth of overseas Chinese stocks was high before and low after, and the differentiation intensified. Although it is expected to achieve a high-speed growth of nearly 16% for the whole of 2021, it is still not as good as pre-pandemic levels after smoothing out the impact of the pandemic base. Looking ahead,</p><p><b>► Although China's economic growth is still under great pressure, the income side is expected to gradually stabilize under the further efforts of policies.</b>From the consensus expectation adjustment range of the market, it is not difficult to see that the profit forecast of Chinese-funded enterprises has been continuously lowered since the beginning of 2021, which reflects the pessimistic expectation of the overall economic growth slowdown. However, the domestic policy of \"steady growth\" is gradually exerting force. After the central bank lowered the bank deposit reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate several times since the second half of 2021, the macro data also picked up significantly in February. The Government Work Report of the Two Sessions in 2022 set an economic growth target of 5.5%, further confirming the determination of the policy to \"stabilize growth\". Future fiscal policy and infrastructure investment are also worthy of attention. We believe that although the market is still facing the pressure of downward profit revision, with the recovery of domestic growth, the income side of Chinese-funded enterprises is expected to return to normal.<b>However, the stabilization time may depend on the speed and intensity of subsequent steady growth efforts, especially in fiscal stimulus and local areas.</b>In addition, the profit outlook of the Internet sector may have to comprehensively consider the subsequent evolution of regulatory policies.</p><p><b>► The fall of PPI-CPI scissors boosted the rebound of downstream profit margins.</b>In the second half of 2021, the price of raw materials increased sharply, pushing the PPI-CPI scissors gap to a historically high level, and the differentiation between upstream raw materials/transportation and midstream and downstream consumption performance growth rates intensified. Since the end of 2021, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has gradually come into effect, and the price of upstream raw materials has peaked and dropped. We believe that the gradual narrowing of the PPI-CPI scissor gap is expected to alleviate the previous cost pressure faced by midstream and downstream enterprises. The profit margins of upstream and middle and downstream sectors may also gradually converge. From the perspective of market consensus expectations, the average profit consensus expectation of upstream sectors (such as energy, raw materials, etc.) has been increased by only about 1% since the beginning of the year, while the average profit consensus expectation of midstream sectors (medical equipment, semiconductors, etc.) has been increased by 13%. The magnitude of downstream earnings downward revisions also slowed significantly (-3%). However, external uncertainty remains a cause for concern. Recently, the price of some commodities has risen again, which may affect our judgment to some extent. Overall, we believe that the impact of external factors may have limited impact on China's domestic fundamentals.</p><p>As noted in our 2022 Outlook Report, we are currently maintaining our forecast for earnings growth of 7.2% year-over-year for overseas Chinese stocks in 2021, with non-financial segment net profit growth of 8.6% compared to 5.9% growth in the financial segment. We will review whether further adjustments are necessary in light of the latest situation after the full-year results are disclosed.</p><p><b>Chart: The gradual stabilization of economic growth will promote the overall improvement of income of Chinese-funded enterprises</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555cac30a1d887f4899330123fedd18b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC</p><p><b>Chart: YTD mid-upstream sector earnings consensus estimates are still upward, but downstream revisions have narrowed</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79b50884b078eae0073ff283936fb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/516537\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"BK1132":"食品零售","HSI":"恒生指数","BK1148":"建筑与工程","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/516537","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2221476056","content_text":"海外中资股2021年年报业绩将于3月中下旬进入高峰期。主要中概股、消费、医疗保健和电信等板块业绩披露将相对靠前；金融、工业和能源等板块集中在中后期。当前市场较为动荡背景下，盈利的好坏特别是预期偏离情况对于后续市场走势特别是相关个股将起到较大影响。就此，我们结合市场和中金行业分析师预测对中金覆盖的~420家海外中资股公司的盈利情况进行汇总，以下一些信息值得关注。业绩预览：2021全年双位数增长，但下半年增速转负；上游周期居前、互联网消费落后1) 整体看，中金覆盖的海外中资股2021年全年有望实现双位数增长；但增长主要集中在上半年，下半年增速转负。基于中金公司行业分析师对所覆盖个股的预测，以人民币计价以剔除汇率因素影响，我们自下而上汇总后，中金覆盖的海外420余家中资股2021全年盈利预计同比增长16%，较2020年的-3%明显反弹，体现了疫情后整体经济和企业盈利的复苏。然而，这一水平较上半年已经兑现的40%增长明显放缓，隐含下半年增速转负。这与中国经济整体从去年下半年趋缓以及互联网监管趋严的宏观背景一致。进一步剔除疫情影响，中金行业分析师预测海外中资股2021年两年复合增速为6.3%，低于2019年17%的同比增长，还未回到疫情前水平。拆分看，周期行业2021年全年增速较上半年回落最为明显，预计盈利同比从上半年的131%回落至28%，但横向相比其他板块依然强劲。防御性板块业绩预计也有回落，由上半年的38%下滑至全年的24%；金融板块预计净利润下滑幅度较小，由上半年的11%下滑至全年的9%。2) 分行业看，上游原材料、交通运输、纺织服装等增速居前，但互联网、餐饮、媒体娱乐、线下消费等增速落后。在能源和部分材料价格走高的拉动下，上游原材料和能源板块有望实现超过150%的增长。交通运输行业也在运力紧缺和强劲外需的共同因素下，预计净利润增长靠前。相比之下，疫情期间盈利增长强劲的互联网零售和媒体娱乐等板块在2021年预计则出现负增长，主要受国内经济增速回落、监管力度加强和行业竞争加剧等多方面的因素拖累。此外，2021年疫情反复持续抑制餐饮、酒店、博彩等需求，受疫情影响较大的线下消费板块盈利增长持续偏低迷。3) 相比市场预期，中金行业分析员预测的2021年16%增速与市场预期基本一致（17%）。对于2022年，中金行业分析师预测的盈利增速持平于16%，高于当前市场预期的13%，主要差距来自于对金融（保险）和周期板块的预期，高于当前市场一致预期。4）盈利预告与意外方面，已经公布业绩预告的公司中，原材料、能源和房地产业绩预告多数偏正面，信息科技、交通运输分化，下游消费和公共事业则以负面居多。从业绩偏离预期的个股而言，中金行业分析师认为，部分能源、房地产、互联网游戏和软件等公司业绩或低于预期。前景展望：稳增长和上游价格边际回落有助于盈利修复；关注政策发力时点和监管对部分板块影响尽管2021年海外中资股全年盈利从2020年疫情的影响中反弹，但修复主要集中在上半年。从下半年开始，国内经济面临的压力上升，叠加内外部各种不确定性的扰动，盈利压力也逐渐增加。在这一背景下，MSCI中国盈利预期持续下调，也反映了市场对国内增长相对谨慎的预期。向前看，2021年底以来国内稳增长政策逐步发力、货币持续宽松、上游价格边际回落的背景下，我们预计盈利增长有望逐渐企稳回升，进而带动企业收入和盈利的回暖。不过，企稳时间可能要取决于后续稳增长发力的速度和力度，尤其是财政和房地产领域。从板块内部结构看，上游价格回落或趋缓将缓解中下游成本压力并有助于中下游消费板块盈利修复。从年初以来的盈利一致预期调整变化来看，上游（原材料、能源）板块盈利上调幅度明显放缓，下游板块盈利下调幅度也明显收窄，半导体和医疗设备等上调幅度居前。不过，互联网板块的盈利前景可能还要综合考虑监管政策的后续演变。整体而言，我们目前维持从自上而下策略角度对2022年整个海外中资股盈利增长7.2%的预测（非金融板块增长8.6%，金融板块5.9%）。我们将在全年业绩披露完毕后，结合最新盈利以及后续政策进展情况重新审视是否需要进一步调整上述盈利预期。正文披露时间：三月中下旬为披露密集期根据彭博资讯提供的预测信息，海外中资股（中国香港和美国上市的中资公司）2021年年报业绩期高峰期将在3月中下旬，大约75%上市公司将于3月份最后两周发布年报业绩。从不同板块的披露进展看，我们预计海外中资股中可选消费、房地产和信息科技板块将首先拉开业绩期帷幕，通信服务公司将在3月中旬开始密集发布年报，而工业、能源和金融等板块的业绩发布更多集中在3月底。个股方面，美国上市的中概股（例如百度、携程、哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车等）都已在三月上旬公布2021年四季度年业绩，而部分市值规模较大的港股上市公司（例如腾讯、工商银行、中国人寿等）将在3月中下旬公布其2021年业绩，值得密切关注。图表：2021年业绩期于2月下旬拉开帷幕，高峰期将在3月中下旬资料来源：Bloomberg,   FactSet, 中金公司研究部图表：工业主要在前期发布业绩，而可选消费、金融和能源板块则集中在后期资料来源：Bloomberg,   FactSet, 中金公司研究部业绩预览：2021全年双位数增长，但下半年增速转负整体情况：2021全年双位数增长，节奏前高后低为了对2021年全年盈利增长情况有一个更好的了解，我们针对中金覆盖的约421支海外中资股（包括中国香港和美国上市的中资公司）对中金行业分析师的观点和预测进行内部问卷调查，并从自下而上角度汇总分析。虽然取样范围仅限于中金公司覆盖的样本，但是考虑到所覆盖公司均为各行业的龙头，因此基本可以反映2021年全年整体业绩情况。自下而上的调查汇总结果显示，可比口径下（财年截至不是12月或没有盈利预测的股票不在统计范围之内）、并基于人民币计算（从而可以剔除汇率变化影响），中金覆盖的海外中资股样本整体2021年全年盈利预计同比增长16%，较2021年上半年40%的增长放缓。单看下半年盈利增速可能小幅转负（-2%），主要受经济增长和监管压力加大、消费增长疲软、上游原材料价格上升、能源供应短缺等因素的综合影响。剔除疫情基数的因素来看，中金行业分析师预测2021年海外中资股样本两年净利润复合增速为6.3%，仍明显低于2019年17%的同比增速。展望2022年，我们的汇总显示中金覆盖的海外中资股样本2022年整体盈利有望维持16%的双位数的增长，高于市场一致预期约3ppt。图表：基于中金行业分析员的预测、自下而上汇总的2021年业绩预览情况（人民币口径）资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部；数据截至2022年3月5日；基于彭博一致预期图表：海外中资股不同类别的盈利增长情况资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；基于中金行业分析师预期自下而上汇总进一步具体来看，我们发现以下几个方面值得关注：► 大板块盈利增速：针对中金覆盖的海外中资股样本，基于人民币口径和中金行业分析师的预测，中金行业分析师预计2021年全年周期性行业净利润同比增长28%；金融板块净利润增长9%；而防御性板块业绩有望实现24%的增长。具体而言：1）金融行业（银行、保险和多元金融）预计人民币口径下2021年全年净利润同比增速将从2020年的-14%回升至9%，但较上半年11%的增速放缓。其中保险板块是主要拖累，预计全年净利润同比下降1%，但下滑幅度由2020年的-7%收窄。相比，多元金融净利润有望实现31%的增张，较2020年19%的增长进一步提升。中金分析师预计银行板块全年业绩同比增长10%，较2020年-1%的负增长明显修复。2）防御性行业（电信、公共事业、医疗保健和日常消费板块）预计全年盈利增长24%，较上半年38%的增长有所放缓。其中公共事业板块盈利增速放缓预计较为明显。3）周期性行业在2021年上半年净利润强劲反弹131%，但2021年全年预计增速放缓至28%。2021年下半年经济整体增速放缓，叠加疫情、供应链瓶颈、能源和航运价格上升、监管政策落地等多种因素下周期性行业利润增速整体明显下滑且分化加剧。上游原材料（金属和矿业、煤炭、石油化工等）和运输板块预计2021年净利润同比增速在150%以上。而受线上板块（互联网、电商等）在2020年高速增长后增速大幅转负。受政策影响较大的地产板块2021年预计净利润同比下滑-6%。► 未来增长趋势：2021年海外中资股业绩增速整体呈现前高后低的趋势。年初经济从疫情中迅速反弹，但下半年在内外各种因素下增长明显放缓甚至转负，从两年增速来看，2021年增长整体仍弱于疫情前水平。步入2022年，国内政策稳增长定调已确认，经济整体增速也可能逐步修复，拉动中资企业利润增速回升。中金行业分析师预测2022年海外中资股盈利与2021年整体持平（16%增速）。金融板块增速预计由2021年的9%上升至11%，周期板块增速预计从28%下滑至21%，防御板块增速预计从24%下滑至21%。► 对比市场预期：中金行业分析员的2021预测与市场一致预期较为接近。对于2021年，基于中金行业分析师预测的盈利增速（16%）略低于市场预期（17%），其中金融略高（中金预期9% vs. 市场一致预期8%），而周期和防御均略微偏低（中金行业分析师预计周期性和防御性行业分别实现28.4%和23.7%的正增长，均略低于31.0%和23.8%的市场预期）。分板块看：化工、交运、金属、纺织服装、煤炭、油气增速居前；互联网、餐饮、媒体、房地产落后上游原材料和化工板块（如化工、金属、煤炭、石油天然气等）预计2021年业绩增速靠前。这部分得益于2020年的低基数，但背后更为关键的因素是全球经济反弹以及能源供给受限下原材料价格快速上升提振板块的利润率。与此类似，在全球供应链冲击与海外需求反弹的共同作用下，航运价格大幅上升推动交通运输板块净利润增速大幅上升。此外，国货崛起等新消费趋势的推动下，纺织服装在2021年有望实现强劲的净利润增速。相反，疫情影响较小的互联网板块则预计在2020年的高速增长后回落。互联网零售和传媒板块2021年净利润增速预计由2020年的252%和102%下滑至-151%和-12%。对于线上板块而言，2021年面临高基数、经济放缓、监管压力增强和行业竞争加剧等多重阻力。国内整体线上消费增长也有所趋缓，与全球其他市场不同。于此同时，受政策约束的影响房地产板块盈利增速也预计下滑，由2020年的6%增长回落至2021年的-6%。受国内疫情反复影响较大的餐饮、酒店、博彩等板块盈利增速持续低迷。展望2022年，随着国内政策稳增长进一步发力，我们认为经济增速也有望在下半年逐步回暖。中金行业分析师预计部分上游板块（化工、金属等）以及运输板块盈利增速预计回落，但仍维持相对高速的增长；部分中下游板块如汽车、必需消费等也有望在经济增长的带动下回暖；互联网板块有望在2021年盈利大幅回落后企稳。图表：上游原材料和运输板块2021年盈利增长预计靠前，消费互联网业绩平淡资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部图表：中金行业分析师预计大多数行业将在2022年回归正增长资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部业绩预告：上游中下分化明显港股公司集中于3月中下旬披露2021年业绩，但据万得数据汇总统计，截至2022年3月2日，已有394 港股上市公司公布业绩预告。从中， 我们可以提前预判部分行业的盈利情况。在2021年下半年，全球原材料价格大幅上涨的提振下，港股上游公司业绩持续向好，而中下游板块利润率则受到挤压。在已经公布业绩预告的公司中，原材料、能源板块预告偏正面的公司比例高达74%和73%。相比而言，中下游板块如日常消费、公共事业等业绩预告则多数偏负面。► 原材料板块中的多家矿采金属龙头预计2021年将实现超过100%的盈利增长，主要受益与国内与海外经济复苏带动的下游需求走强，以及2020年原材料价格低基数等因素。► 能源板块业绩整体受益于能源价格的反弹，其中原油及煤炭价格在供给约束与全球需求反弹的共同影响下快速上升。► 交通运输板块2021年盈利分化明显，航运价格高企推动下，航运龙头预计实现较高盈利增速。相比而言，受疫情反复的影响，航空运输业绩持续低迷。► 公共事业板块中火电板块2021年整体受高煤价影响业绩承压，多家公司由盈转亏。► 信息技术板块盈利内部分化明显。半导体行业盈利增速大幅上升。软件服务板块业绩整体承压，61%的公司业绩预告偏负面。► 可选消费板块业绩预告整体偏中性。零售、汽车、耐用品服装子板块业绩公告偏正面的公司比例分别为63%、56%，和43%。疫情反复和教育板块双减政策落地的影响下，消费者服务子板块偏正面公司占比仅有35%。我们对发布业绩预告在发布日期前后股价进行分析。我们发现在正面预告发布前3天内平均跑赢恒生国企指数0.3ppt（跑赢概率44.4%），发布后三天内平均跑输1.8ppt（跑赢概率41.7%）。另一方面，发布负面业绩预告可能会拖累股价表现，导致股价在公告发布后的三天内平均跑输恒生国企指数0.9ppt（跑输概率38.5%）。图表：港股二级行业盈利预告汇总资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部图表：市值高于50亿美元的H股上市公司业绩预告一览资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截至2022年3月2日；基于彭博一致预期盈利意外：中金行业分析师的观点汇总基于对中金行业分析员的内部调查，我们从自下而上的角度整理出了我们行业分析员认为未来业绩有可能超出或低于预期个股名单，详见中金已发布的报告原文。我们建议投资者在年报期间密切关注上述股票以及业绩超出或低于预期可能会对股价所产生影响。前景展望：稳增长有助于盈利修复；行业分化有望收敛2021年中国经济率先走出疫情冲击，但下半年受外部冲击和内部结构性因素的影响下增速明显放缓。海外中资股整体增长整体表现前高后低，且分化加剧。虽然2021年全年有望实现近16%的高速增长，但在平滑疫情基数影响后仍不及疫情前水平。往前看，► 虽然中国经济增长仍面临较大压力，政策进一步发力下收入端有望逐步企稳。从市场的一致预期调整幅度中也不难看出，中资企业盈利预期自2021年初以来持续下调，正是反映了整体经济增速放缓的悲观预期。然而，国内“稳增长”政策正逐步发力。央行自2021年下半年以来数次下调银行存款准备金率和基准利率后，宏观数据在2月也明显回暖。2022年两会政府工作报告制定5.5%的经济增长目标，进一步确认了政策“稳增长”的决心。未来财政政策和基建投资也值得关注。我们认为，虽然市场仍面临盈利下修压力，但伴随国内增长恢复，中资企业收入端有望回归常态。不过，企稳时间可能要取决于后续稳增长发力的速度和力度，尤其是在财政刺激和地方领域。此外，互联网板块的盈利前景可能还要综合考虑监管政策的后续演变。► PPI-CPI剪刀差回落助推下游利润率回升。2021年下半年原材料价格大幅上升，推动PPI-CPI剪刀差至历史高位，上游原材料/运输与中下游消费业绩增速分化加剧。2021年年底以来，保供稳价政策逐步见效，上游原材料价格筑顶回落。我们认为，PPI-CPI剪刀差逐步收窄有望缓解此前中下游企业的所面临的成本端压力。上游与中下游板块利润率也可能逐步收敛。从市场一致预期来看，年初至今上游板块（如能源、原材料等）盈利一致预期平均上调仅1%左右，而中游板块（医疗设备、半导体等）盈利一致预期则平均上调13%。下游盈利下调的幅度也明显放缓（-3%）。然而，外部不确定性依然值得关注。近期部分大宗商品价格再次上升，可能一定程度上影响我们的判断。整体而言，我们认为外部因素的冲击可能对中国国内基本面的影响有限。正如我们在2022年展望报告中所指出的，我们目前维持2021年海外中资股盈利同比增长7.2%的预测，其中非金融板块净利润增长8.6%，而金融板块增速为5.9%。我们将在全年业绩披露完毕后，结合最新情况审视是否需要进一步调整。图表：经济增速逐步企稳将推动中资企业收入整体改善资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部图表：年初至今中上游板块盈利一致预期仍有所上调，但下游下调幅度收窄资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036670278,"gmtCreate":1647086801284,"gmtModify":1676534194194,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036670278","repostId":"1162064213","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162064213","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647070773,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162064213?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 15:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why won't Luckin die?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162064213","media":"蓝鲨消费","summary":"2月8日，谷爱凌凭1620超高难度动作的最后一跳，绝地反击夺得北京冬奥会女子自由式大跳台冠军。瑞幸咖啡（以下简称瑞幸）也开始了它的绝地反击，重新登顶之路。一夜之间，瑞幸全国数千家门店竖起代言人谷爱凌的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 8th, Gu Ailing won the women's freestyle Big air championship in the Beijing Winter Olympics with the last jump of 1620 super-difficult action. Luckin Coffee (hereinafter referred to as Luckin) also started its Jedi counterattack and re-ascended the top.</p><p>Overnight, thousands of stores in Luckin all over the country erected advertisements of spokesperson Gu Ailing, and consumers can receive a 42% discount coupon package to \"toast to winning the championship\" together.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8eb32a369c86c9c2f6afcbe240362cc\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"1421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ After Gu Ailing won the championship, Luckin changed the product packaging at the first time</p><p>Soon, Luckin Coffee announced that it had 5,300 stores, surpassing Starbucks again and becoming the largest coffee chain brand in China. There is more news in the media that Ruixing wants to go public for a second time.</p><p>Luckin can indeed pack light again.</p><p>On February 5th, Luckin paid a fine of US$180 million (about 1.2 billion yuan) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the two parties reached a settlement. Earlier on January 27th, the buyer's consortium led by Luckin's PE round investor Dazheng Capital acquired 384 million Class A ordinary shares from Luckin's original management, obtained more than 50% of the voting rights, and became Luckin's \"speaker\".</p><p>Luckin, which exploded the financial fraud scandal in April 2020, has always had two boots of stock investor lawsuits and management turmoil hanging on its head for nearly two years, and now it has finally fallen.</p><p>In the past two years, how did Luckin come back to life from the situation of \"hanging by a thread\"? Why won't Luckin, who has been hit repeatedly, die?</p><p>01 Listing, fraud, delisting, infighting</p><p>It has only been 11 months since Ruixing went from the highlight moment of the fastest listing to the fall from the altar, and everyone shouted and beat.</p><p>On May 17, 2019, Luckin listed on the Nasdaq with a market capitalization of $4.74 billion. It refreshed the world's record for the fastest time for a company to go from founding to IPO – 18.5 months. What's more, Luckin, founded in 2017, had 2,370 stores before listing, and its revenue rose from 250,000 yuan in 2017 to 841 million yuan in 2018, making it the second largest coffee chain brand in China after Starbucks. Subsequently, Luckin's market value soared all the way, once exceeding $11.9 billion on January 17, 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1f43e3f37d60f420e5fea21defed99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Luckin Coffee lists on Nasdaq</p><p>If you want it to perish, you must first make it crazy!</p><p>On January 31, 2020, Muddy Waters of the United States accused Luckin of alleged financial fraud. This is not the first time that Muddy Waters has shorted Chinese companies. New Oriental, 360 and other companies have been \"engaged\", and they are all fine later. Therefore, on February 3rd, Lu Zhengyao, chairman of Ruixing, confidently denied it.</p><p>Soon, Lu Zhengyao was slapped in the face. On April 2nd, Luckin announced the results of self-examination. Chief Operating Officer Liu Jian and some of his subordinates forged transaction sales from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2019, with a total amount of about 2.2 billion yuan. This exceeds 72% of Luckin's total revenue in 2019 (3.025 billion yuan). Honey, 70% of your income depends on fraud. Luckin is so daring!</p><p>The cost of fraud was high, with Luckin shares plunging 81.6%. On May 19, 2020, Nasdaq informed Luckin that it had to delist. On June 29, 2020, Luckin delisted from Nasdaq, and its share price has dropped from the highest of US$51.38/share to only US$1.38/share, becoming a veritable \"penny stock\".</p><p>On July 13th, as the chairman, Lu Zhengyao was ousted from the chairman's throne by the heavily lost capital and replaced by his agent Guo Jinyi.</p><p>You know, even if it is delisted, Luckin, which still has 3,898 self-operated stores as of November 30, 2020, is still generating cash flow, with a revenue of 4.033 billion yuan in 2020. Luckin is a baby who can lay golden eggs.</p><p>Lu Zhengyao, who once created the myth of Shenzhou Car Rental, Shenzhou UCAR and Luckin, is naturally unwilling to go out.</p><p>In January 2021, under his instruction, seven vice presidents of Luckin, general managers of all branches and some business executives jointly requested Guo Jinyi's removal on the grounds that Guo was corrupt. This quickly turned out to be a trumped-up \"crime\" and a conspiracy by Lu. One plan fails, and another plan. In September 2021, Lu Zhengyao secretly entrusted a third party to acquire Luckin's equity. After being discovered, Luckin launched a shareholder rights protection plan to prevent Lu Zhengyao from returning to the curve through malicious takeovers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5944ac26f37f9d2e206f1628dcbce5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Lu Zhengyao, former chairman of Luckin</p><p>There is no hope of regaining Luckin. Lu Zhengyao can only start trying new projects such as small noodles one after another, but he is notorious in the capital market. Who dares to gamble with him again?</p><p>02 Luckin's \"undead gene\"</p><p>In the past two years, although the outside world seems to have been unsettled, Luckin may die at any time. In fact, Luckin is not only alive, but also seems to be alive.</p><p>Luckin has expanded from 3,898 stores on November 30, 2020 to 5,300 now, surpassing Starbucks to become the coffee chain brand with the largest number of stores in China. Revenue also rose from 4.033 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.532 billion yuan in September 2021, and losses narrowed from 1.733 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2020 to 23.51 million yuan in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>So, what exactly is Luckin's \"undead gene\"? Blue Shark Consumption sums it up as:</p><p>1. Step on medium and heavy assets + outlet industry; 2. The background of a strong team remains unchanged; 3. Huge capital support; 4. Scale effect and brand advantage are especially present.</p><p>First of all, coffee shop is an industry that is both in the wind and has the characteristics of heavy assets. Heavy assets also mean a high threshold: giants such as Meituan will not easily play on their own, and are more willing to invest. Meituan Longzhu voted for Manner, while teams such as Manner are young, and their resources, operation and management experience are not sophisticated enough. Luckin team has an advantage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83487b6dac8da3a52a8c1a6865bb4e46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Manner (a local coffee chain brand in Shanghai)</p><p>Secondly, although Luckin is turbulent, the core team has not left. For example, Yang Fei, the trader and co-founder of Luckin Marketing, is still there. Compared with the rising coffee shop teams such as Manner, they are still much stronger in store operation, brand marketing and private domain.</p><p>Third, Luckin needs huge funds whether it is to compensate stock investors for their losses, purchase the equity of original shareholders, and continue to maintain operations. After Ruixing's accident, Dazheng Capital, which \"talked about things\", was born from Warburg Pincus, a famous PE institution, and could mobilize tens of billions of money. Luckin has always had far more financing channels than new coffee players. It can not only raise financing from VC and PE institutions, but also find Internet giants and overseas capital investment. Even with thousands of stores, coffee machines and other housing equipment, with billions of yuan of annual flow, you can find bank loans, financial leasing, etc. Luckin has money in his hands, so he naturally doesn't panic. Signing Gu Ailing to do the marketing of Beijing Winter Olympics is progressing in an orderly manner.</p><p>Fourth, coffee is an outlet track. Luckin, which started in October 2017, seized the market opportunity, and successfully shaped Luckin as the second largest coffee chain brand in China and the brand image and user mind of Starbucks challengers by constantly engaging in edge-ball marketing. Luckin previously invested more than $1 billion to open more than 4,000 stores, seizing a suitable location for opening stores. Existing rivals, stores want to reach this scale, without more than 1 billion dollars of money, without 3-4 years to open stores crazily, it is simply impossible. With thousands of stores, Luckin serves a large number of users every day and strengthens its brand.</p><p>Luckin has thousands of direct stores, with good flow and high brand potential, and can quickly expand the number of stores by joining.</p><p>03 Where is Luckin going?</p><p>Luckin, who walked out of the \"Death Valley\" with its \"undead gene\", has returned to the fast lane of development, but its front is not a smooth river.</p><p>Coffee was verified by Luckin as an excellent track, and other players flocked to it except old rival Starbucks. According to statistics, there were 21 investment cases in the coffee field in 2021, with a total amount of nearly 6 billion yuan, which is the sum of the previous two years. Manner, M Stand, Tims, Nowwa and other coffee brands all raised more than 100 million yuan. McDonald's, China Post, Convenience Bee and other giants have all entered. With money and \"thighs\", they snatch office buildings, shopping malls, street shops and other scenes where white-collar people haunt to open shops. Coffee may have more diverse tastes, but the price is cheaper, but the cost of rent, labor, equipment and other costs will rise. It is difficult for Ruixing to maintain the previous low-cost expansion rate of thousands of stores a year, and have a crushing advantage in product taste and price!</p><p>Previously, in order to solve the \"troubles\" of investors and shareholders, Ruixing \"sold himself\" and raised a lot of money. But there is no free lunch in the world, and this money is all about high returns. Capital will inevitably force Ruixing to make revenue and profits as soon as possible, achieve scale profits, and quickly go on the secondary market, so that they can cash out and leave the market. Ruixing dances in the shackles of \"capital\", and its movements are inevitably deformed. For example, in order to open a store quickly, it is not allowed to open and join as soon as possible. How to manage so many stores and ensure the user experience is a huge challenge. Blue shark consumption saw on black cat complaints that Luckin had as many as 2,841 complaints, such as clumping of coffee freeze-dried powder and drinking nails.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe81390b8d8f48d19765f44d1349d73\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ The number of complaints from Luckin Coffee on the Black Cat Complaint Platform is as high as 2,841</p><p>Luckin originally hoped to improve the store efficiency by introducing tea drinks, baking products and other products. However, with the rise and strength of tea drinks and baking chain brands such as Heytea and Naixue's tea, Master Bao and Mo Mo Dim Sum Bureau, Luckin has no competitive advantage, and consumers will not choose to consume tea drinks and baking products in Luckin.</p><p>If Luckin wants to break out of the siege and go further, it has to continue to invest in product innovation and make a big story in refined operation. Luckin implements the product innovation PK mechanism, and dozens of products are tested, so that the most popular ones can be brought to the market. This mechanism made Luckin push an explosion in 2021-raw coconut latte.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c6e7cd19e37703c282ff962d441620c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Advertising picture of Luckin raw coconut latte</p><p>The scale of Ruixing stores has exceeded 5,300. How to improve the efficiency of warehousing and distribution and the human efficiency of stores has become particularly important. This requires the introduction of more advanced coffee machines, more efficient digital systems such as manpower, cashiers and members, and reduction of the management expenses of non-store staff in the middle and back office.</p><p>Let's wait and see how far Luckin can go, whether he can kill Starbucks and become the king of coffee in China.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1647070808416","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why won't Luckin die?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy won't Luckin die?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">蓝鲨消费</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-12 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 8th, Gu Ailing won the women's freestyle Big air championship in the Beijing Winter Olympics with the last jump of 1620 super-difficult action. Luckin Coffee (hereinafter referred to as Luckin) also started its Jedi counterattack and re-ascended the top.</p><p>Overnight, thousands of stores in Luckin all over the country erected advertisements of spokesperson Gu Ailing, and consumers can receive a 42% discount coupon package to \"toast to winning the championship\" together.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8eb32a369c86c9c2f6afcbe240362cc\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"1421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ After Gu Ailing won the championship, Luckin changed the product packaging at the first time</p><p>Soon, Luckin Coffee announced that it had 5,300 stores, surpassing Starbucks again and becoming the largest coffee chain brand in China. There is more news in the media that Ruixing wants to go public for a second time.</p><p>Luckin can indeed pack light again.</p><p>On February 5th, Luckin paid a fine of US$180 million (about 1.2 billion yuan) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the two parties reached a settlement. Earlier on January 27th, the buyer's consortium led by Luckin's PE round investor Dazheng Capital acquired 384 million Class A ordinary shares from Luckin's original management, obtained more than 50% of the voting rights, and became Luckin's \"speaker\".</p><p>Luckin, which exploded the financial fraud scandal in April 2020, has always had two boots of stock investor lawsuits and management turmoil hanging on its head for nearly two years, and now it has finally fallen.</p><p>In the past two years, how did Luckin come back to life from the situation of \"hanging by a thread\"? Why won't Luckin, who has been hit repeatedly, die?</p><p>01 Listing, fraud, delisting, infighting</p><p>It has only been 11 months since Ruixing went from the highlight moment of the fastest listing to the fall from the altar, and everyone shouted and beat.</p><p>On May 17, 2019, Luckin listed on the Nasdaq with a market capitalization of $4.74 billion. It refreshed the world's record for the fastest time for a company to go from founding to IPO – 18.5 months. What's more, Luckin, founded in 2017, had 2,370 stores before listing, and its revenue rose from 250,000 yuan in 2017 to 841 million yuan in 2018, making it the second largest coffee chain brand in China after Starbucks. Subsequently, Luckin's market value soared all the way, once exceeding $11.9 billion on January 17, 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1f43e3f37d60f420e5fea21defed99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Luckin Coffee lists on Nasdaq</p><p>If you want it to perish, you must first make it crazy!</p><p>On January 31, 2020, Muddy Waters of the United States accused Luckin of alleged financial fraud. This is not the first time that Muddy Waters has shorted Chinese companies. New Oriental, 360 and other companies have been \"engaged\", and they are all fine later. Therefore, on February 3rd, Lu Zhengyao, chairman of Ruixing, confidently denied it.</p><p>Soon, Lu Zhengyao was slapped in the face. On April 2nd, Luckin announced the results of self-examination. Chief Operating Officer Liu Jian and some of his subordinates forged transaction sales from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2019, with a total amount of about 2.2 billion yuan. This exceeds 72% of Luckin's total revenue in 2019 (3.025 billion yuan). Honey, 70% of your income depends on fraud. Luckin is so daring!</p><p>The cost of fraud was high, with Luckin shares plunging 81.6%. On May 19, 2020, Nasdaq informed Luckin that it had to delist. On June 29, 2020, Luckin delisted from Nasdaq, and its share price has dropped from the highest of US$51.38/share to only US$1.38/share, becoming a veritable \"penny stock\".</p><p>On July 13th, as the chairman, Lu Zhengyao was ousted from the chairman's throne by the heavily lost capital and replaced by his agent Guo Jinyi.</p><p>You know, even if it is delisted, Luckin, which still has 3,898 self-operated stores as of November 30, 2020, is still generating cash flow, with a revenue of 4.033 billion yuan in 2020. Luckin is a baby who can lay golden eggs.</p><p>Lu Zhengyao, who once created the myth of Shenzhou Car Rental, Shenzhou UCAR and Luckin, is naturally unwilling to go out.</p><p>In January 2021, under his instruction, seven vice presidents of Luckin, general managers of all branches and some business executives jointly requested Guo Jinyi's removal on the grounds that Guo was corrupt. This quickly turned out to be a trumped-up \"crime\" and a conspiracy by Lu. One plan fails, and another plan. In September 2021, Lu Zhengyao secretly entrusted a third party to acquire Luckin's equity. After being discovered, Luckin launched a shareholder rights protection plan to prevent Lu Zhengyao from returning to the curve through malicious takeovers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5944ac26f37f9d2e206f1628dcbce5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Lu Zhengyao, former chairman of Luckin</p><p>There is no hope of regaining Luckin. Lu Zhengyao can only start trying new projects such as small noodles one after another, but he is notorious in the capital market. Who dares to gamble with him again?</p><p>02 Luckin's \"undead gene\"</p><p>In the past two years, although the outside world seems to have been unsettled, Luckin may die at any time. In fact, Luckin is not only alive, but also seems to be alive.</p><p>Luckin has expanded from 3,898 stores on November 30, 2020 to 5,300 now, surpassing Starbucks to become the coffee chain brand with the largest number of stores in China. Revenue also rose from 4.033 billion yuan in 2020 to 5.532 billion yuan in September 2021, and losses narrowed from 1.733 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2020 to 23.51 million yuan in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>So, what exactly is Luckin's \"undead gene\"? Blue Shark Consumption sums it up as:</p><p>1. Step on medium and heavy assets + outlet industry; 2. The background of a strong team remains unchanged; 3. Huge capital support; 4. Scale effect and brand advantage are especially present.</p><p>First of all, coffee shop is an industry that is both in the wind and has the characteristics of heavy assets. Heavy assets also mean a high threshold: giants such as Meituan will not easily play on their own, and are more willing to invest. Meituan Longzhu voted for Manner, while teams such as Manner are young, and their resources, operation and management experience are not sophisticated enough. Luckin team has an advantage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83487b6dac8da3a52a8c1a6865bb4e46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Manner (a local coffee chain brand in Shanghai)</p><p>Secondly, although Luckin is turbulent, the core team has not left. For example, Yang Fei, the trader and co-founder of Luckin Marketing, is still there. Compared with the rising coffee shop teams such as Manner, they are still much stronger in store operation, brand marketing and private domain.</p><p>Third, Luckin needs huge funds whether it is to compensate stock investors for their losses, purchase the equity of original shareholders, and continue to maintain operations. After Ruixing's accident, Dazheng Capital, which \"talked about things\", was born from Warburg Pincus, a famous PE institution, and could mobilize tens of billions of money. Luckin has always had far more financing channels than new coffee players. It can not only raise financing from VC and PE institutions, but also find Internet giants and overseas capital investment. Even with thousands of stores, coffee machines and other housing equipment, with billions of yuan of annual flow, you can find bank loans, financial leasing, etc. Luckin has money in his hands, so he naturally doesn't panic. Signing Gu Ailing to do the marketing of Beijing Winter Olympics is progressing in an orderly manner.</p><p>Fourth, coffee is an outlet track. Luckin, which started in October 2017, seized the market opportunity, and successfully shaped Luckin as the second largest coffee chain brand in China and the brand image and user mind of Starbucks challengers by constantly engaging in edge-ball marketing. Luckin previously invested more than $1 billion to open more than 4,000 stores, seizing a suitable location for opening stores. Existing rivals, stores want to reach this scale, without more than 1 billion dollars of money, without 3-4 years to open stores crazily, it is simply impossible. With thousands of stores, Luckin serves a large number of users every day and strengthens its brand.</p><p>Luckin has thousands of direct stores, with good flow and high brand potential, and can quickly expand the number of stores by joining.</p><p>03 Where is Luckin going?</p><p>Luckin, who walked out of the \"Death Valley\" with its \"undead gene\", has returned to the fast lane of development, but its front is not a smooth river.</p><p>Coffee was verified by Luckin as an excellent track, and other players flocked to it except old rival Starbucks. According to statistics, there were 21 investment cases in the coffee field in 2021, with a total amount of nearly 6 billion yuan, which is the sum of the previous two years. Manner, M Stand, Tims, Nowwa and other coffee brands all raised more than 100 million yuan. McDonald's, China Post, Convenience Bee and other giants have all entered. With money and \"thighs\", they snatch office buildings, shopping malls, street shops and other scenes where white-collar people haunt to open shops. Coffee may have more diverse tastes, but the price is cheaper, but the cost of rent, labor, equipment and other costs will rise. It is difficult for Ruixing to maintain the previous low-cost expansion rate of thousands of stores a year, and have a crushing advantage in product taste and price!</p><p>Previously, in order to solve the \"troubles\" of investors and shareholders, Ruixing \"sold himself\" and raised a lot of money. But there is no free lunch in the world, and this money is all about high returns. Capital will inevitably force Ruixing to make revenue and profits as soon as possible, achieve scale profits, and quickly go on the secondary market, so that they can cash out and leave the market. Ruixing dances in the shackles of \"capital\", and its movements are inevitably deformed. For example, in order to open a store quickly, it is not allowed to open and join as soon as possible. How to manage so many stores and ensure the user experience is a huge challenge. Blue shark consumption saw on black cat complaints that Luckin had as many as 2,841 complaints, such as clumping of coffee freeze-dried powder and drinking nails.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe81390b8d8f48d19765f44d1349d73\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ The number of complaints from Luckin Coffee on the Black Cat Complaint Platform is as high as 2,841</p><p>Luckin originally hoped to improve the store efficiency by introducing tea drinks, baking products and other products. However, with the rise and strength of tea drinks and baking chain brands such as Heytea and Naixue's tea, Master Bao and Mo Mo Dim Sum Bureau, Luckin has no competitive advantage, and consumers will not choose to consume tea drinks and baking products in Luckin.</p><p>If Luckin wants to break out of the siege and go further, it has to continue to invest in product innovation and make a big story in refined operation. Luckin implements the product innovation PK mechanism, and dozens of products are tested, so that the most popular ones can be brought to the market. This mechanism made Luckin push an explosion in 2021-raw coconut latte.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c6e7cd19e37703c282ff962d441620c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>△ Advertising picture of Luckin raw coconut latte</p><p>The scale of Ruixing stores has exceeded 5,300. How to improve the efficiency of warehousing and distribution and the human efficiency of stores has become particularly important. This requires the introduction of more advanced coffee machines, more efficient digital systems such as manpower, cashiers and members, and reduction of the management expenses of non-store staff in the middle and back office.</p><p>Let's wait and see how far Luckin can go, whether he can kill Starbucks and become the king of coffee in China.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1650308451365893\">蓝鲨消费</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1650308451365893","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162064213","content_text":"2月8日，谷爱凌凭1620超高难度动作的最后一跳，绝地反击夺得北京冬奥会女子自由式大跳台冠军。瑞幸咖啡（以下简称瑞幸）也开始了它的绝地反击，重新登顶之路。一夜之间，瑞幸全国数千家门店竖起代言人谷爱凌的广告，消费者可以领取4.8折夺冠券包，一起“为夺冠干杯”。△谷爱凌夺冠后，瑞幸第一时间更换了产品包装很快，瑞幸咖啡宣布其门店数达5300家，重新超越星巴克，成为中国最大的咖啡连锁品牌。更有媒体传出瑞幸欲二次上市的消息。瑞幸确实可以再次轻装上阵了。2月5日，瑞幸向美国证券交易委员会缴纳1.8亿美元（约合12亿元）罚款，双方达成和解。更早之前的1月27日，瑞幸PE轮投资方大钲资本牵头的买方财团，从瑞幸原管理层收购了3.84亿股A类普通股，获得50%以上的投票权，成为瑞幸的“话事人”。2020年4月自爆财务造假丑闻的瑞幸，近2年头上始终悬着股票投资人诉讼和管理层动荡这两只靴子，现在终于都落下来了。这两年，瑞幸怎么从“命悬一线”的境地起死回生的？为什么屡受暴击的瑞幸不会死？01 上市，造假，退市，内斗瑞幸从最快上市的高光时刻到跌落神坛，人人喊打，只过了11个月。2019年5 月 17 日，瑞幸在纳斯达克上市，市值达47.40 亿美元。它刷新了一家公司从创立到 IPO 的全球最快纪录——18.5 个月。更牛的是，2017年创立的瑞幸，上市前已拥有2370家门店，营收也从2017年的25万元涨到2018年的8.41亿元，成为仅次于星巴克的中国第二大咖啡连锁品牌。随后，瑞幸市值一路飙升，2020年1月17日一度超119亿美元。△瑞幸咖啡在纳斯达克上市欲让其灭亡，先让其疯狂！2020年1月31日，美国浑水指控瑞幸涉嫌财务造假。这不是浑水第一次做空中国公司，新东方、360等公司都被“搞过”，后来都没事。因此，2月3日，瑞幸董事长陆正耀理直气壮地坚决否认。很快，陆正耀被啪啪打脸。4月2日，瑞幸公布自查结果，首席运营官刘剑和他的部分下属，2019年第2季度到第4季度伪造交易销售额，总金额约为22亿元。这超过瑞幸2019年总营收（30.25亿元）的72%。乖乖，七成收入靠造假。瑞幸真敢！造假的代价很大，瑞幸股价暴跌81.6%。2020年5月19日，纳斯达克通知瑞幸必须退市。2020年6月29日，瑞幸从纳斯达克退市，股价已从最高的51.38美元/股跌到仅剩1.38美元/股，成为名副其实的“仙股”。7月13日，作为董事长，陆正耀被损失惨重的资本赶下董事长宝座，换上代理人郭谨一。要知道，即便退市了，但截至2020年11月30日还有3898自营门店的瑞幸，还在源源不断地产生现金流，2020年营收达40.33亿元。瑞幸是一个能生金蛋的宝贝。曾缔造了神州租车、神州优车、瑞幸神话的陆正耀，自然不甘心出局。2021年1月，在他的授意下，瑞幸7个副总裁，所有分公司总经理，部分业务高管联名要求罢免郭谨一，理由是郭贪腐。这很快被证明是莫须有的“罪名”，是陆的阴谋。一计不成又生一计。2021年9月，陆正耀偷偷委托第三方收购瑞幸的股权，被发现后，瑞幸推出一项股东权益保护计划，防止陆正耀通过恶意收购，曲线回归。△瑞幸原董事长陆正耀重夺瑞幸无望，陆正耀只能陆续开始尝试小面等新项目，但他在资本市场已臭名卓著，谁敢跟他再赌一把大的呢？02 瑞幸的“不死基因”这两年，尽管外界看来，瑞幸风雨飘摇，随时有可能挂掉。实际上，瑞幸不但活着，活得似乎还不错。瑞幸门店从2020年11月30日的3898家扩张到现在的5300家，超过星巴克成为中国门店数最多的咖啡连锁品牌。营收也从2020年的40.33亿元涨到了2021年9月的55.32亿元，亏损从2020年3季度的17.33亿元收窄到2021年3季度的2351万元。那么，瑞幸的“不死基因”到底是什么？蓝鲨消费将其总结为：1、踩中重资产+风口产业；2、强悍团队底色不变；3、巨额资本支撑；4、规模效应和品牌优势尤在。首先，咖啡店是一个既在风口，又具有重资产特征的产业。重资产也意味着高门槛：美团等巨头不会轻易自己上场干，更愿意投资，美团龙珠就投了Manner，而Manner等团队偏年轻，资源、运营、管理经验不够老辣，瑞幸团队有优势。△Manner（上海本土的咖啡连锁品牌）其次，虽然瑞幸动荡，但核心团队并没有走，比如瑞幸营销的操盘手、联合创始人杨飞依然在，他们跟Manner等后起的咖啡店团队比，门店运营、品牌营销、私域等方面，依然强悍太多。第三，瑞幸无论是赔偿股票投资人的损失，还是购买原股东的股权，以及继续维持运营，都需要庞大的资金。瑞幸出事后，“话事”的大钲资本脱胎于著名的PE机构华平资本，能调动百亿级的钱。瑞幸一直有远比咖啡新玩家多得多的融资渠道，不但能从 VC、PE 机构融资，还能找互联网巨头和海外资本投资，甚至凭超数千家门店、咖啡机等房屋设备，每年数十亿元的流水，可以找银行贷款、融资租赁等。瑞幸手里有钱，自然心里不慌，签约谷爱凌做北京冬奥营销等都在有条不紊地推进。第四，咖啡是个风口赛道，起步于2017年10月的瑞幸抢占了市场先机，且通过不断地“傍星巴克”搞擦边球营销，成功塑造了瑞幸是中国第二大咖啡连锁品牌，是星巴克挑战者的品牌形象和用户心智。瑞幸之前投入了超10亿美元开了超4000家门店，抢占了适合开店的位置。现有对手，门店想要达到这个规模，没有10亿美元以上的钱，没有3-4年时间疯狂开店，根本不可能。瑞幸凭数千家门店，每天服务海量用户，又强化了自己的品牌。瑞幸数几千家直营店，流水不错，品牌势能高，还能用加盟方式迅捷扩大门店数量。03 瑞幸向何处去？凭“不死基因”走出“死亡谷”的瑞幸，重新走上了发展的快车道，但它的前面并非一马平川。咖啡被瑞幸验证了是一条极好的赛道，除了老对手星巴克外，其他玩家蜂拥而至。据统计，2021年咖啡领域投资案例共21起，总金额接近60亿元，是此前两年的总和。Manner、M Stand、Tims、Nowwa等咖啡品牌融资都超1亿元。麦当劳、中国邮政、便利蜂等巨头都杀入进来。有钱、有“大腿”的它们，抢夺写字楼、商场、沿街商铺等白领人群出没的场景开店，咖啡口味可能更多样，价格却更便宜，而房租、人工、设备等成本却会水涨船高，瑞幸再想保持之前低成本、一年上千家店的扩张速度，在产品口味、价格上有碾压式的优势，难了！之前，为了解决投资人和股东的“麻烦”，瑞幸“卖身”融了很多钱。但天下没有免费的午餐，这些钱都是要高回报的。资本必然逼迫瑞幸尽快将营收、利润做上来，实现规模盈利，快速二次上市，好让它们套现离场。瑞幸戴着“资本”的镣铐跳舞，动作难免变形，比如为了快速开店，不得从快开放加盟，如何管好如此多的门店，保证用户体验是巨大的挑战。蓝鲨消费在黑猫投诉上看到，瑞幸的投诉高达2841条，比如咖啡冻干粉结块、喝出指甲等。△黑猫投诉平台上瑞幸咖啡的投诉量高达2841条瑞幸原来希望通过推出茶饮、烘焙等产品提高门店坪效，但随着喜茶、奈雪的茶，鲍师傅、墨茉点心局等茶饮、烘焙连锁品牌崛起并日渐强势，瑞幸并没有竞争优势，消费者也不会首选在瑞幸消费茶饮、烘焙产品。瑞幸要想杀出重围，走得更远，还得在产品创新上持续投入，在精细化运营上做大文章。瑞幸推行产品创新PK机制，数十款产品做测试，最受欢迎的才能推向市场。这个机制让瑞幸2021年推了一个爆款——生椰拿铁。△瑞幸生椰拿铁的广告宣传图瑞幸门店规模已超5300家，如何提高仓配的效率，门店的人效，变得尤其重要，这需要引入更先进的咖啡机，更高效的人力、收银、会员等数字化系统，降低中后台非门店人员的管理费用等。瑞幸到底能走多远，能不能干掉星巴克，成为中国的咖啡之王，让我们拭目以待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LKNCY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016416158,"gmtCreate":1649217654904,"gmtModify":1676534472637,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016416158","repostId":"2225531369","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2225531369","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649210859,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225531369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 10:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Read in one article | The \"hawkish\" speech of the \"dovish\" official of the Federal Reserve","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225531369","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"原标题：5月缩表？为何这两个美联储高官“放鹰”，市场反应这么大？隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀，而这些基本都要归功于两位美联储高管的威力！隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀。三大美股指齐创逾一周新低；","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Original title: shrinking balance sheet in May? Why did the market react so greatly when these two senior Fed officials \"hawked\"?</p><p><b><b>Overnight, the US financial market once again staged a double killing of stocks and bonds,</b></b><b>And these are basically due to the power of two Federal Reserve executives!</b>Overnight, the U.S. financial market once again staged a double killing of stocks and bonds.</p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit new lows in more than a week; The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield once increased by 17 basis points in the day, reaching a new high in nearly three years after a week, and the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5%; the US Dollar Index jumped intraday, once returning to 99.50, a new high in nearly two years.</p><p>And these are largely due to the power of the two Fed executives.</p><p>On Tuesday, future Fed No. 2 and Fed Governor Lael Brainard, nominated by Biden to be Fed Vice Chair, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both made clear their latest views focused on curbing inflation.</p><p>In which Brainard emphasized,<b>The Fed will shrink its balance sheet \"quickly\".</b></p><p>According to CNBC, she noted during a Minneapolis Fed webinar that \"<b>Reducing inflation is crucial</b>\"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rate policy<b>\"Will continue to tighten monetary policy methodically through a series of rate hike and a rapid balance sheet reduction as soon as possible at our May meeting.\"</b></p><p>And later in the day, Daly said the same,<b>Inflation at a 40-year high is \"as harmful as not having a job\".</b></p><p>In a speech to the Association of Native American Finance Officers, she assured the group that the Fed was dealing with high inflation.</p><p>In her speech, she noted:</p><p>Most Americans, most people, most business...you all have the confidence that we won't let this pass forever.....but if you don't have that confidence, let me give it to you. She repeatedly assured attendees that interest rates were moving higher. But she also added that she didn't think it would lead to a recession and that raising interest rates \"is necessary again to make sure that (you) go to bed at night and you don't have to worry about whether the price is going to be higher, it will be higher tomorrow\".</p><p><b>The hawkish remarks of these two Fed officials attracted the attention of the market because they were both considered to belong to the \"dovish\" camp of the Fed-which means that they usually favor low interest rates and less restrictive monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>But now, they all agree that monetary tightening is imminent, underscoring the importance the Fed takes.</b></p><p><b>Among them, Brainard's statement is particularly weighty. As mentioned at the beginning, she is about to become the No. 2 person of the Federal Reserve, that is, Chairman Powell's top deputy.</b></p><p>On the shrinking balance sheet Process, Brainard said she expects the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet to \"contract faster\" than it did during the last round of 2017-19 contraction. At the time, the Fed allowed $50 billion in monthly proceeds from maturing bonds while reinvesting the rest.</p><p>Her latest comments open the door to expectations from many economists, who expect the Fed to shrink by $80 billion-$100 billion a month this time.</p><p>Brainard also added,<b>Decreasing the balance sheet \"will help tighten monetary policy and allow interest rates to rise more than expected\".</b></p><p>Regarding the next Fed policy rhythm, Brainard mentioned:</p><p>Currently, inflation is too high and there are upside risks. If inflation and inflationary expectations indicate the need for action, the Commission is prepared to take stronger measures. Daly, meanwhile, echoed the idea of opening the shrinking balance sheet in May, adding<b>The Fed's pledge to fight inflation \"will mean higher interest rates.\"</b></p><p>In this regard, she noted:</p><p>But inflation, which is the price people pay day after day, is always on their minds. They sleep thinking about it at night and wake up in the morning thinking about rent, transportation, gas prices, food prices, so the Fed is on a path to raising interest rates.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Read in one article | The \"hawkish\" speech of the \"dovish\" official of the Federal Reserve</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRead in one article | The \"hawkish\" speech of the \"dovish\" official of the Federal Reserve\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 10:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Original title: shrinking balance sheet in May? Why did the market react so greatly when these two senior Fed officials \"hawked\"?</p><p><b><b>Overnight, the US financial market once again staged a double killing of stocks and bonds,</b></b><b>And these are basically due to the power of two Federal Reserve executives!</b>Overnight, the U.S. financial market once again staged a double killing of stocks and bonds.</p><p>The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit new lows in more than a week; The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield once increased by 17 basis points in the day, reaching a new high in nearly three years after a week, and the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5%; the US Dollar Index jumped intraday, once returning to 99.50, a new high in nearly two years.</p><p>And these are largely due to the power of the two Fed executives.</p><p>On Tuesday, future Fed No. 2 and Fed Governor Lael Brainard, nominated by Biden to be Fed Vice Chair, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both made clear their latest views focused on curbing inflation.</p><p>In which Brainard emphasized,<b>The Fed will shrink its balance sheet \"quickly\".</b></p><p>According to CNBC, she noted during a Minneapolis Fed webinar that \"<b>Reducing inflation is crucial</b>\"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rate policy<b>\"Will continue to tighten monetary policy methodically through a series of rate hike and a rapid balance sheet reduction as soon as possible at our May meeting.\"</b></p><p>And later in the day, Daly said the same,<b>Inflation at a 40-year high is \"as harmful as not having a job\".</b></p><p>In a speech to the Association of Native American Finance Officers, she assured the group that the Fed was dealing with high inflation.</p><p>In her speech, she noted:</p><p>Most Americans, most people, most business...you all have the confidence that we won't let this pass forever.....but if you don't have that confidence, let me give it to you. She repeatedly assured attendees that interest rates were moving higher. But she also added that she didn't think it would lead to a recession and that raising interest rates \"is necessary again to make sure that (you) go to bed at night and you don't have to worry about whether the price is going to be higher, it will be higher tomorrow\".</p><p><b>The hawkish remarks of these two Fed officials attracted the attention of the market because they were both considered to belong to the \"dovish\" camp of the Fed-which means that they usually favor low interest rates and less restrictive monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>But now, they all agree that monetary tightening is imminent, underscoring the importance the Fed takes.</b></p><p><b>Among them, Brainard's statement is particularly weighty. As mentioned at the beginning, she is about to become the No. 2 person of the Federal Reserve, that is, Chairman Powell's top deputy.</b></p><p>On the shrinking balance sheet Process, Brainard said she expects the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet to \"contract faster\" than it did during the last round of 2017-19 contraction. At the time, the Fed allowed $50 billion in monthly proceeds from maturing bonds while reinvesting the rest.</p><p>Her latest comments open the door to expectations from many economists, who expect the Fed to shrink by $80 billion-$100 billion a month this time.</p><p>Brainard also added,<b>Decreasing the balance sheet \"will help tighten monetary policy and allow interest rates to rise more than expected\".</b></p><p>Regarding the next Fed policy rhythm, Brainard mentioned:</p><p>Currently, inflation is too high and there are upside risks. If inflation and inflationary expectations indicate the need for action, the Commission is prepared to take stronger measures. Daly, meanwhile, echoed the idea of opening the shrinking balance sheet in May, adding<b>The Fed's pledge to fight inflation \"will mean higher interest rates.\"</b></p><p>In this regard, she noted:</p><p>But inflation, which is the price people pay day after day, is always on their minds. They sleep thinking about it at night and wake up in the morning thinking about rent, transportation, gas prices, food prices, so the Fed is on a path to raising interest rates.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656116\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656116","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225531369","content_text":"原标题：5月缩表？为何这两个美联储高官“放鹰”，市场反应这么大？隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀，而这些基本都要归功于两位美联储高管的威力！隔夜美国金融市场再度上演股债双杀。三大美股指齐创逾一周新低；基准10年期美债收益率日内升幅一度达17个基点，时隔一周又创近三年新高，美国30年期按揭利率升破5%；美元指数盘中跳涨，一度重上99.50创将近两年来新高。而这些基本都要归功于两位美联储高管的威力。本周二，未来的美联储二号人物、被拜登提名为美联储副主席的美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）和旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）均明确表明了关注遏制通胀的最新观点。其中布雷纳德强调，美联储将“迅速”缩减资产负债表。据CNBC报道称，她在明尼阿波利斯联储网络研讨会上指出“降低通胀至关重要”，制定利率政策的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）“将继续有条不紊地通过一系列加息来收紧货币政策，并在我们5月的会议上尽快对资产负债表进行快速缩减。”而在当天晚些时候，戴利也同样表示，通货膨胀率处于40年高位“与没有工作一样有害”。在向美国原住民财务官员协会发表讲话时，她向该组织保证美联储正在处理高企通胀。她在演讲中指出：大多数美国人，大多数人，大多数企业......你们都有信心，我们不会永远让这一切过去......但如果你没有那个信心，就让我给你吧。她多次向与会者保证，利率正在走高。但她还补充道，她认为这不会导致经济衰退，提高利率“是再次确保（你）晚上睡觉时所必需的，你不必担心价格是否会更高，明天会更高”。而这两位美联储官员的上述鹰派发言之所以会引发市场瞩目，是因为他们都被认为是属于美联储的“鸽派”阵营—这意味着他们通常倾向于低利率和限制较少的货币政策。但是现在，他们都认为收紧货币已经迫在眉睫，这突显出美联储的重视程度。其中布雷纳德的表态格外有份量，就像开头提及的，她即将成为美联储的二号人物，也就是主席鲍威尔的最高副手。关于缩表进程，布雷纳德表示，她预计美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表将比上一轮2017-19年缩减时“收缩得更快”。当时，美联储允许每月从到期债券中获得500亿美元的收益，同时将其余部分进行再投资。她的最新评论为许多经济学家的预期打开了大门，他们预计此次美联储每月将缩减800亿-1000亿美元。布雷纳德还补充称，缩减资产负债表“将有助于货币政策的收紧，并使得利率超过预期增幅”。关于接下来的美联储的政策节奏，布雷纳德提及：目前，通胀率过高，存在上行风险。如果通胀和通胀预期表明有必要采取行动，委员会准备采取更有力的措施。与此同时，戴利对5月开启缩表的看法表示赞同，并补充说美联储对抗通胀的承诺“将意味着利率上升”。她对此指出：但通货膨胀，这是人们日复一日所付出的代价，一直记挂在他们心中。他们晚上睡觉想着它，早上醒来想着租金、交通、汽油价格、食品价格，所以美联储正走在提高利率的道路上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066558101,"gmtCreate":1651931406803,"gmtModify":1676534999335,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066558101","repostId":"1179424055","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179424055","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651918203,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179424055?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-07 18:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Musk's Ambition, Tesla's Trouble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179424055","media":"子弹财观","summary":"特斯拉的扩张步伐又有了新动向。5月4日，有外媒报道称，特斯拉计划在当前的特斯拉上海超级工厂附近建设一个新工厂，用于生产Model 3和Model Y，预计可增加45万辆汽车的年产能，成为特斯拉在全球“","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There is a new trend in Tesla's expansion pace.</p><p>On May 4, some foreign media reported that Tesla plans to build a new factory near the current Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory for the production of Model 3 and Model Y, which is expected to increase the annual production capacity of 450,000 vehicles and become Tesla's \"largest automobile export center\" in the world.</p><p>Soon, \"Tesla is about to build a second factory in Shanghai\" was sent to Weibo hot search.</p><p>However, on May 5th, there were also media reports that the information obtained from relevant sources inside Tesla<b>The accurate message is \"it is production expansion, not the second factory\".</b></p><p>However, whether it is to expand production or build a second factory, it means that Tesla's production capacity will be further improved. What's more, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has set a goal of \"50% year-on-year growth and even 60% growth\" for Tesla deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Musk's exposed ambition undoubtedly stimulated Tesla's share price to rise. After the news of production expansion flowed out, as of the close of trading on May 4th, EST, Tesla's share price rose by 4.77% to close at $952.62, with a total market value of $986.9 billion.</p><p>However, concerns about the smug Musk and his Tesla have never stopped.</p><p><i><b>1</b></i></p><p><b>The big winner of new energy vehicles</b></p><p>At the moment when the automobile industry is moving towards the new energy era, Tesla is undoubtedly the most watched new energy vehicle company in the world, and its founder Elon Musk has also become the biggest winner, successfully reaching the richest man in the world with Tesla.</p><p>In 2021, Musk's wealth increased by $68 billion, according to Forbes China. On the 2022 Global Billionaires List released by Forbes on April 5, Musk surpassed Amazon founder Jeff Bezos (with a net worth of $171 billion) to become the world's richest man with a net worth of $219 billion based on the stock price as of March 11, 2022.</p><p>In the 3-month period of the first quarter of 2022, Tesla also made huge profits.</p><p>Tesla's financial report shows that in the first quarter, its total revenue was US$18.756 billion, an increase of 81% from US$10.389 billion in the same period of last year, of which, the revenue of automobile business reached US$16.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 87%. Tesla's net profit in the first quarter reached $3.318 billion, up 657.53% from $438 million in the same period last year.</p><p>This performance exceeded outside expectations. Previously, Wall Street expected Tesla's revenue and profit to be about $18 billion and $2.6 billion respectively.</p><p><b>For the increase in revenue from car sales, Tesla attributes it to increased vehicle deliveries and rising price per vehicle.</b></p><p>In the earnings report, Tesla noted that cash deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y increased by 111,915 in the three months ended March 31, 2022, and cash deliveries of the Model S and Model X increased by 10,305 year-over-year.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, with the price increase of upstream raw materials in the new energy vehicle industry, many new energy vehicle brands such as Tesla, BYD, XPeng, Nio and Weimar have set off a wave of price increases, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan.</p><p>In the eight days from March 10th to 17th this year, Tesla frantically raised prices three times, raising the prices of some domestic Model 3 and Model Y models, ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 yuan. Among them, only the Model Y high-performance version increased in price by 30,000 yuan in a few days.</p><p>Tesla's official website shows that as of May 5th, the price of the Model Y high-performance version is 417,900 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95be45ee93584e726440c8907985f0e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Photo/Tesla Official</p><p><b>At the same time, Tesla also raised the selling price of its products in the United States, ranging from $2,000 to $12,500.</b></p><p>This is very different from Tesla's move in 2020, which was desperate to seize the market: in 2020, Tesla lowered the price of its products several times, and in January, Tesla lowered the base price of the Model 3 made in China from 356,000 yuan to 324,000 yuan, and the price after subsidies was 299,000 yuan. In May, after the threshold of 300,000 yuan subsidy for new energy vehicles was announced, Tesla adjusted the starting price of the upgraded version of Model 3 standard battery life to 291,800 yuan, and the price after subsidy was as low as 271,600 yuan...</p><p>Behind this is the improvement of the demand of the whole new energy vehicle market.</p><p>According to relevant data, in 2021, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles worldwide was 6.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 108%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by more than 160% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 3.52 million units.</p><p>For the full year of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles, representing an increase of 87.4% year-over-year. From January to March this year, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, about one-third of all-year deliveries in 2021, and increased by 69% year-on-year.</p><p>On the day of the release of this bright financial report (April 21st), Tesla's intraday share price once rose by 12%. Although the increase narrowed to 3.23% at the close due to the market decline, the share price still closed at $1,008.78/share.</p><p><i><b>2</b></i></p><p><b>Cars no longer make hard-earned money?</b></p><p><b>Behind Tesla's bright first-quarter financial report, it not only reflects the changes in the market demand of new energy vehicles, but also makes people see the new possibility after cars enter the new energy era: they no longer make hard-earned money.</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the gross profit margin of Tesla's automotive business reached 32.9%, compared with 26.5% in the same period last year. If this gross profit margin is put on consumer goods companies such as Nongfu Spring and Kweichow Moutai, it may be called \"extremely poor\". However, in the automobile industry, such a gross profit margin can reach the top, and the outside world even describes it as \"record-setting\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5230aaa95bbca4ff2372e93463f3bf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Picture/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>According to the statistics of Oriental Fortune Choice, there are currently about 29 vehicle companies listed on A-share and Hong Kong stocks. Since most of the vehicle companies have not yet released their financial reports for the first quarter of 2022, they only compared the financial data of 2020 and 2021, and the gross profit margins of these vehicle companies are difficult to compete with Tesla.</p><p>Among the 29 listed vehicle companies, the gross profit margin of 9 vehicle companies, including SAIC Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group, is less than 10%, and the gross profit margin of BAIC Blue Valley, which was once proud in the new energy vehicle market, is as low as 0.81%.</p><p><b>The gross profit margin of 17 car companies, including BYD, Geely, Great Wall and Changan, as well as new car manufacturers Nio and XPeng, remained between 10% and 20%.</b></p><p>Among them, Nio, which takes the high-end route and is constantly used as a benchmark with Tesla, ranks first among 17 car companies in gross profit margin, reaching 18.88%, but it is still far from Tesla. Even BYD, Tesla's biggest rival, has a gross profit margin of only 13.02%, a new low since 2013. Looking at the gross profit margin of its automobile business alone, it is only 17.39%, down 7.81% year-on-year.</p><p>Only BAIC Motor and Li Auto have gross profit margins exceeding 21%, with 21.4% and 21.33% respectively.</p><p>Looking internationally, Tesla's gross profit margin has also left a number of luxury car brands behind. In 2021, full-year gross profit margins for Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi were 12.7%, 17.6% and 10.7%, respectively.</p><p>\"Tesla's gross profit margin is much higher than that of other companies in the automobile industry. On the one hand, it is related to its higher brand positioning, and the relative price of the main sales models is relatively high; On the other hand, in the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla holds a large number of orders, and has a greater voice when talking about cooperation with upstream enterprises such as power battery enterprises, which also helps to reduce its costs. In addition, the increase in production capacity of Shanghai Gigafactory has further reduced Tesla's cost. \" A person who works for a new car manufacturing enterprise in China told Bullet Financial View.</p><p>Tesla also bluntly stated in its financial report that the main reason for the growth of gross profit margin is that with the increase of production capacity of Shanghai factory, the sales and production structure of Model Y have undergone favorable changes. \"Despite rising raw materials, commodities, logistics and acceleration costs, the average unit cost of the Model 3 and Model Y has decreased due to localized sourcing and manufacturing in China.\"</p><p>It is reported that in 2021, the delivery volume of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory increased by as much as 235% year-on-year to 484,100 vehicles, accounting for 51.7% of Tesla's annual delivery volume of 936,200 vehicles. At the time of Tesla's efforts in the European market, the Shanghai Gigafactory played a huge role, with more than 160,000 vehicles delivered from the Shanghai factory to overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p>Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the surge in Tesla's share price after the news that Tesla's Shanghai factory will expand production appeared.</p><p>The aforementioned new car-making forces further pointed out that the gross profit margin of new car-making forces is generally higher than that of traditional car companies. One reason is that new car-making forces have more channels to make money, such as income from selling new energy points and software service income.</p><p><i><b>3</b></i></p><p><b>Car companies siege Tesla</b></p><p>However, Tesla, which seems to be making great progress at present, has no hidden worries.</p><p><b>The biggest concern still comes from capacity. In the early years, Tesla was caught in \"capacity hell\" due to insufficient power battery capacity and other reasons. Today, although Tesla's production capacity has been greatly improved, it can be said that limited production capacity is still a problem for Tesla.</b></p><p>With the groundbreaking ceremony of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory on March 22nd, Tesla has its fourth Gigafactory in the world after Nevada, New York and Shanghai.</p><p>It is reported that the annual output of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory will reach 500,000 vehicles, with the main production models being Model 3 and Model Y. So far, Tesla has established its own production bases in North America, China and Europe, the three major global auto markets.</p><p>Only when the global production capacity is stable can high sales volume, high income and high gross profit margin be guaranteed. But at present, the production capacity of Tesla's Berlin factory can be said to be in its infancy.</p><p>At the moment of repeated epidemic situation, the development of automobile supply chain has been blocked, and the sharp increase in demand for new energy vehicles has conveyed that the problem of chip shortage and raw material price increase brought by the upstream has not been solved. Against this background, car companies including Tesla and Nio have suffered from production shutdown crisis.</p><p>On April 14th, He Xiaopeng, CEO of XPeng Automobile, pointed out in a post on his social platform, \"If Shanghai's and surrounding supply chain enterprises can't find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese OEMs may have to stop production in May.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5975105417ae0d4fbee64573f2d3e72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Picture/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>From March 28th to April 19th, Tesla's Shanghai factory experienced the longest shutdown since it was completed and put into production-22 days. Judging from the calculation time of financial report, the impact of production shutdown will be mainly concentrated in the second quarter.</p><p>But Musk clearly doesn't plan to slow down the pace of expansion. He once pointed out on a conference call that Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2022 will increase by 50% compared with 2021, and may even achieve 60% growth. Even at a 50% growth rate, Tesla will deliver more than 1.4 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>With the expansion of production capacity, the cost input will also increase. However, at present, the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles has not dropped significantly.</p><p>Take lithium iron phosphate and the selling prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the core raw materials of ternary batteries, for example.</p><p>According to market data such as Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of 99.5% was 53,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021, and 270,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. By April 12th this year, it had risen to 498,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 839.62% during the period. As of May 5th, the average price was 461,500 yuan/ton.</p><p>The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micro-powder type) with a purity of 56.5% was 55,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021, and it had risen to 499,500 yuan/ton by April 12th this year, with an increase of 808.18% during the period. As of May 5th, the average price was 477,000 yuan/ton.</p><p>If it is still difficult to balance the supply and demand of upstream raw materials in the short term, even new energy vehicle giants like Tesla will eventually face pressure.</p><p><b>The bigger crisis is that Tesla has more and more rivals, and old rivals are running wildly.</b></p><p>On the evening of April 3rd, Tesla's biggest rival BYD officially announced that it would stop the production of fuel vehicles, showing its ambition in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>Nowadays, in addition to BYD, new car-making forces and other players who are diverting the market, traditional car companies, whether international car companies such as BBA, Volkswagen and Toyota or Chinese car companies such as SAIC, Geely and Great Wall, are accelerating their electrification transformation and entering the new energy car market to fight.</p><p>According to relevant data, in 2021, Porsche Taycan delivered 7,315 units in the Chinese market and sold 41,296 units worldwide, more than double that of 2020 and even surpassing the classic Porsche 911. You know, Porsche Taycan sells for a lot of money, starting from 880,000 yuan at the entry level, and more than 1.8 million yuan at the top, with an average selling price of one million yuan.</p><p>According to data released by Volkswagen China, the cumulative sales volume of Volkswagen ID series in China in 2021 was 70,625 units. In addition, in 2021, the BMW Group sold more than 100,000 pure electric vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 133%.</p><p>In fact, the diversion effect brought by the increase of competitors has been reflected in Tesla's market share in recent years. In 2019 and 2020, Tesla's global market share was 17% and 16%, respectively. In 2021, although Tesla still ranked first in global EV market share, its market share has dropped to 14.4%.</p><p><b>At present, Tesla still has no \"second leg\" to support the company. For example, Tesla's self-researched and self-produced power batteries, which had already shown dew as early as 2015, and made frequent big moves in 2019, are still more inclined to stay at the \"story\" level.</b></p><p>At present, the automobile industry is making great strides from the era of fuel vehicles to the era of new energy, which is an opportunity for Teslas. However, under the general trend, the development window period of new car-making forces such as Tesla is also shortening, and the current good results are not enough to make Tesla sit back and relax.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646061584972","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's Ambition, Tesla's Trouble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's Ambition, Tesla's Trouble\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">子弹财观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-07 18:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There is a new trend in Tesla's expansion pace.</p><p>On May 4, some foreign media reported that Tesla plans to build a new factory near the current Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory for the production of Model 3 and Model Y, which is expected to increase the annual production capacity of 450,000 vehicles and become Tesla's \"largest automobile export center\" in the world.</p><p>Soon, \"Tesla is about to build a second factory in Shanghai\" was sent to Weibo hot search.</p><p>However, on May 5th, there were also media reports that the information obtained from relevant sources inside Tesla<b>The accurate message is \"it is production expansion, not the second factory\".</b></p><p>However, whether it is to expand production or build a second factory, it means that Tesla's production capacity will be further improved. What's more, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has set a goal of \"50% year-on-year growth and even 60% growth\" for Tesla deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Musk's exposed ambition undoubtedly stimulated Tesla's share price to rise. After the news of production expansion flowed out, as of the close of trading on May 4th, EST, Tesla's share price rose by 4.77% to close at $952.62, with a total market value of $986.9 billion.</p><p>However, concerns about the smug Musk and his Tesla have never stopped.</p><p><i><b>1</b></i></p><p><b>The big winner of new energy vehicles</b></p><p>At the moment when the automobile industry is moving towards the new energy era, Tesla is undoubtedly the most watched new energy vehicle company in the world, and its founder Elon Musk has also become the biggest winner, successfully reaching the richest man in the world with Tesla.</p><p>In 2021, Musk's wealth increased by $68 billion, according to Forbes China. On the 2022 Global Billionaires List released by Forbes on April 5, Musk surpassed Amazon founder Jeff Bezos (with a net worth of $171 billion) to become the world's richest man with a net worth of $219 billion based on the stock price as of March 11, 2022.</p><p>In the 3-month period of the first quarter of 2022, Tesla also made huge profits.</p><p>Tesla's financial report shows that in the first quarter, its total revenue was US$18.756 billion, an increase of 81% from US$10.389 billion in the same period of last year, of which, the revenue of automobile business reached US$16.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 87%. Tesla's net profit in the first quarter reached $3.318 billion, up 657.53% from $438 million in the same period last year.</p><p>This performance exceeded outside expectations. Previously, Wall Street expected Tesla's revenue and profit to be about $18 billion and $2.6 billion respectively.</p><p><b>For the increase in revenue from car sales, Tesla attributes it to increased vehicle deliveries and rising price per vehicle.</b></p><p>In the earnings report, Tesla noted that cash deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y increased by 111,915 in the three months ended March 31, 2022, and cash deliveries of the Model S and Model X increased by 10,305 year-over-year.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, with the price increase of upstream raw materials in the new energy vehicle industry, many new energy vehicle brands such as Tesla, BYD, XPeng, Nio and Weimar have set off a wave of price increases, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan.</p><p>In the eight days from March 10th to 17th this year, Tesla frantically raised prices three times, raising the prices of some domestic Model 3 and Model Y models, ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 yuan. Among them, only the Model Y high-performance version increased in price by 30,000 yuan in a few days.</p><p>Tesla's official website shows that as of May 5th, the price of the Model Y high-performance version is 417,900 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95be45ee93584e726440c8907985f0e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Photo/Tesla Official</p><p><b>At the same time, Tesla also raised the selling price of its products in the United States, ranging from $2,000 to $12,500.</b></p><p>This is very different from Tesla's move in 2020, which was desperate to seize the market: in 2020, Tesla lowered the price of its products several times, and in January, Tesla lowered the base price of the Model 3 made in China from 356,000 yuan to 324,000 yuan, and the price after subsidies was 299,000 yuan. In May, after the threshold of 300,000 yuan subsidy for new energy vehicles was announced, Tesla adjusted the starting price of the upgraded version of Model 3 standard battery life to 291,800 yuan, and the price after subsidy was as low as 271,600 yuan...</p><p>Behind this is the improvement of the demand of the whole new energy vehicle market.</p><p>According to relevant data, in 2021, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles worldwide was 6.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 108%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by more than 160% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 3.52 million units.</p><p>For the full year of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles, representing an increase of 87.4% year-over-year. From January to March this year, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, about one-third of all-year deliveries in 2021, and increased by 69% year-on-year.</p><p>On the day of the release of this bright financial report (April 21st), Tesla's intraday share price once rose by 12%. Although the increase narrowed to 3.23% at the close due to the market decline, the share price still closed at $1,008.78/share.</p><p><i><b>2</b></i></p><p><b>Cars no longer make hard-earned money?</b></p><p><b>Behind Tesla's bright first-quarter financial report, it not only reflects the changes in the market demand of new energy vehicles, but also makes people see the new possibility after cars enter the new energy era: they no longer make hard-earned money.</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the gross profit margin of Tesla's automotive business reached 32.9%, compared with 26.5% in the same period last year. If this gross profit margin is put on consumer goods companies such as Nongfu Spring and Kweichow Moutai, it may be called \"extremely poor\". However, in the automobile industry, such a gross profit margin can reach the top, and the outside world even describes it as \"record-setting\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5230aaa95bbca4ff2372e93463f3bf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Picture/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>According to the statistics of Oriental Fortune Choice, there are currently about 29 vehicle companies listed on A-share and Hong Kong stocks. Since most of the vehicle companies have not yet released their financial reports for the first quarter of 2022, they only compared the financial data of 2020 and 2021, and the gross profit margins of these vehicle companies are difficult to compete with Tesla.</p><p>Among the 29 listed vehicle companies, the gross profit margin of 9 vehicle companies, including SAIC Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group, is less than 10%, and the gross profit margin of BAIC Blue Valley, which was once proud in the new energy vehicle market, is as low as 0.81%.</p><p><b>The gross profit margin of 17 car companies, including BYD, Geely, Great Wall and Changan, as well as new car manufacturers Nio and XPeng, remained between 10% and 20%.</b></p><p>Among them, Nio, which takes the high-end route and is constantly used as a benchmark with Tesla, ranks first among 17 car companies in gross profit margin, reaching 18.88%, but it is still far from Tesla. Even BYD, Tesla's biggest rival, has a gross profit margin of only 13.02%, a new low since 2013. Looking at the gross profit margin of its automobile business alone, it is only 17.39%, down 7.81% year-on-year.</p><p>Only BAIC Motor and Li Auto have gross profit margins exceeding 21%, with 21.4% and 21.33% respectively.</p><p>Looking internationally, Tesla's gross profit margin has also left a number of luxury car brands behind. In 2021, full-year gross profit margins for Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi were 12.7%, 17.6% and 10.7%, respectively.</p><p>\"Tesla's gross profit margin is much higher than that of other companies in the automobile industry. On the one hand, it is related to its higher brand positioning, and the relative price of the main sales models is relatively high; On the other hand, in the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla holds a large number of orders, and has a greater voice when talking about cooperation with upstream enterprises such as power battery enterprises, which also helps to reduce its costs. In addition, the increase in production capacity of Shanghai Gigafactory has further reduced Tesla's cost. \" A person who works for a new car manufacturing enterprise in China told Bullet Financial View.</p><p>Tesla also bluntly stated in its financial report that the main reason for the growth of gross profit margin is that with the increase of production capacity of Shanghai factory, the sales and production structure of Model Y have undergone favorable changes. \"Despite rising raw materials, commodities, logistics and acceleration costs, the average unit cost of the Model 3 and Model Y has decreased due to localized sourcing and manufacturing in China.\"</p><p>It is reported that in 2021, the delivery volume of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory increased by as much as 235% year-on-year to 484,100 vehicles, accounting for 51.7% of Tesla's annual delivery volume of 936,200 vehicles. At the time of Tesla's efforts in the European market, the Shanghai Gigafactory played a huge role, with more than 160,000 vehicles delivered from the Shanghai factory to overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p>Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the surge in Tesla's share price after the news that Tesla's Shanghai factory will expand production appeared.</p><p>The aforementioned new car-making forces further pointed out that the gross profit margin of new car-making forces is generally higher than that of traditional car companies. One reason is that new car-making forces have more channels to make money, such as income from selling new energy points and software service income.</p><p><i><b>3</b></i></p><p><b>Car companies siege Tesla</b></p><p>However, Tesla, which seems to be making great progress at present, has no hidden worries.</p><p><b>The biggest concern still comes from capacity. In the early years, Tesla was caught in \"capacity hell\" due to insufficient power battery capacity and other reasons. Today, although Tesla's production capacity has been greatly improved, it can be said that limited production capacity is still a problem for Tesla.</b></p><p>With the groundbreaking ceremony of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory on March 22nd, Tesla has its fourth Gigafactory in the world after Nevada, New York and Shanghai.</p><p>It is reported that the annual output of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory will reach 500,000 vehicles, with the main production models being Model 3 and Model Y. So far, Tesla has established its own production bases in North America, China and Europe, the three major global auto markets.</p><p>Only when the global production capacity is stable can high sales volume, high income and high gross profit margin be guaranteed. But at present, the production capacity of Tesla's Berlin factory can be said to be in its infancy.</p><p>At the moment of repeated epidemic situation, the development of automobile supply chain has been blocked, and the sharp increase in demand for new energy vehicles has conveyed that the problem of chip shortage and raw material price increase brought by the upstream has not been solved. Against this background, car companies including Tesla and Nio have suffered from production shutdown crisis.</p><p>On April 14th, He Xiaopeng, CEO of XPeng Automobile, pointed out in a post on his social platform, \"If Shanghai's and surrounding supply chain enterprises can't find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese OEMs may have to stop production in May.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5975105417ae0d4fbee64573f2d3e72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Picture/Photo Network, based on VRF protocol</p><p>From March 28th to April 19th, Tesla's Shanghai factory experienced the longest shutdown since it was completed and put into production-22 days. Judging from the calculation time of financial report, the impact of production shutdown will be mainly concentrated in the second quarter.</p><p>But Musk clearly doesn't plan to slow down the pace of expansion. He once pointed out on a conference call that Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2022 will increase by 50% compared with 2021, and may even achieve 60% growth. Even at a 50% growth rate, Tesla will deliver more than 1.4 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>With the expansion of production capacity, the cost input will also increase. However, at present, the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles has not dropped significantly.</p><p>Take lithium iron phosphate and the selling prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the core raw materials of ternary batteries, for example.</p><p>According to market data such as Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of 99.5% was 53,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021, and 270,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. By April 12th this year, it had risen to 498,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 839.62% during the period. As of May 5th, the average price was 461,500 yuan/ton.</p><p>The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micro-powder type) with a purity of 56.5% was 55,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021, and it had risen to 499,500 yuan/ton by April 12th this year, with an increase of 808.18% during the period. As of May 5th, the average price was 477,000 yuan/ton.</p><p>If it is still difficult to balance the supply and demand of upstream raw materials in the short term, even new energy vehicle giants like Tesla will eventually face pressure.</p><p><b>The bigger crisis is that Tesla has more and more rivals, and old rivals are running wildly.</b></p><p>On the evening of April 3rd, Tesla's biggest rival BYD officially announced that it would stop the production of fuel vehicles, showing its ambition in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>Nowadays, in addition to BYD, new car-making forces and other players who are diverting the market, traditional car companies, whether international car companies such as BBA, Volkswagen and Toyota or Chinese car companies such as SAIC, Geely and Great Wall, are accelerating their electrification transformation and entering the new energy car market to fight.</p><p>According to relevant data, in 2021, Porsche Taycan delivered 7,315 units in the Chinese market and sold 41,296 units worldwide, more than double that of 2020 and even surpassing the classic Porsche 911. You know, Porsche Taycan sells for a lot of money, starting from 880,000 yuan at the entry level, and more than 1.8 million yuan at the top, with an average selling price of one million yuan.</p><p>According to data released by Volkswagen China, the cumulative sales volume of Volkswagen ID series in China in 2021 was 70,625 units. In addition, in 2021, the BMW Group sold more than 100,000 pure electric vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 133%.</p><p>In fact, the diversion effect brought by the increase of competitors has been reflected in Tesla's market share in recent years. In 2019 and 2020, Tesla's global market share was 17% and 16%, respectively. In 2021, although Tesla still ranked first in global EV market share, its market share has dropped to 14.4%.</p><p><b>At present, Tesla still has no \"second leg\" to support the company. For example, Tesla's self-researched and self-produced power batteries, which had already shown dew as early as 2015, and made frequent big moves in 2019, are still more inclined to stay at the \"story\" level.</b></p><p>At present, the automobile industry is making great strides from the era of fuel vehicles to the era of new energy, which is an opportunity for Teslas. However, under the general trend, the development window period of new car-making forces such as Tesla is also shortening, and the current good results are not enough to make Tesla sit back and relax.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cPpz6F_nLvlHL_bzwAe4Ow\">子弹财观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff460a3c38d8370653067c1948c76ac","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cPpz6F_nLvlHL_bzwAe4Ow","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179424055","content_text":"特斯拉的扩张步伐又有了新动向。5月4日，有外媒报道称，特斯拉计划在当前的特斯拉上海超级工厂附近建设一个新工厂，用于生产Model 3和Model Y，预计可增加45万辆汽车的年产能，成为特斯拉在全球“最大的汽车出口中心”。很快，“特斯拉即将在上海建设第二工厂”即被送上微博热搜。不过，5月5日，亦有媒体报道称，从特斯拉内部相关人士处获得的准确消息是“是扩产，非第二工厂”。但不管是扩产还是建设第二工厂，都意味着特斯拉的产能将迎来进一步提升。更何况特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克曾给2022年的特斯拉交付量立下了“同比增长50%、甚至有可能实现60%增长”的目标。马斯克外露的野心无疑也刺激了特斯拉股价上涨，在扩产消息流出后，截至美东时间5月4日收盘，特斯拉股价上涨4.77%，报收于952.62美元，总市值9869亿美元。然而，对于踌躇满志的马斯克和他的特斯拉，外界的担忧也从未停止。1新能源汽车的大赢家在汽车产业迈向新能源时代的当下，特斯拉无疑已是当下全球最受关注的新能源车企，而它的创始人埃隆·马斯克也成了最大赢家，凭借特斯拉成功登顶世界首富。据福布斯中国数据，2021年，马斯克的财富增加了680亿美元。在4月5日福布斯发布的《2022全球亿万富豪榜》上，根据截止2022年3月11日股价计算，马斯克以2190亿美元的身家超越亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯（身家1710亿美元 ），成为全球首富。在2022年第一季度3个月的时间里，特斯拉也赚取了巨额利润。特斯拉财报显示，第一季度，其总营收为187.56亿美元，较上年同期的103.89亿美元增长81%，其中，汽车业务收入达到168.6亿美元，同比增长87%。特斯拉一季度净利润则达到33.18亿美元，较上年同期的4.38亿美元暴涨657.53%。这份业绩超出外界预期，此前，华尔街预计特斯拉的营收、利润分别为180亿美元、26亿美元左右。对于汽车销售收入的增长，特斯拉将其归功于汽车交付量增加和单车价格的上涨。在财报中，特斯拉指出，截至2022年3月31日的三个月中，Model 3和Model Y的现金交付增加了111915笔，Model S和Model X的现金交付同比增加了10305笔。今年以来，随着新能源汽车产业上游原材料涨价，特斯拉、比亚迪、小鹏、蔚来和威马等众多新能源汽车品牌掀起涨价潮，提价区间在数千元至数万元不等。在今年3月10日-17日8天时间里，特斯拉堪称疯狂地进行了3次提价，上调部分国产Model 3、Model Y车型售价，涨价区间在1万至3万元不等。其中，仅Model Y高性能版一款车型在几天时间里即涨价3万元。特斯拉官网显示，截止5月5日，Model Y高性能版的售价为41.79万元。图 / 特斯拉官方同时，特斯拉在美国同样上调了产品售价，涨价区间从2千到1.25万美元不等。这与2020年迫切想要抢占市场的特斯拉举措大相径庭：2020年，特斯拉多次下调产品售价，1月，特斯拉将中国制造的Model 3基础车价从35.6万元下调至32.4万元，补贴后售价为29.9万元。5月，在新能源汽车30万元补贴门槛公布后，特斯拉将Model 3标准续航升级版的起售价调整到了29.18万元，补贴后售价低至27.16万元……这背后折射的，是整个新能源汽车市场需求的提升。相关数据显示，2021年，全球新能源汽车年销量为675万辆，同比增长108%。其中，中国新能源汽车产销同比增长均超过160%，销量达352万辆。2021年全年，特斯拉交付量达到93.62万辆，同比增长87.4%。今年1-3月，特斯拉交付量为310048辆，约为2021年全年交付量的三分之一，同比增长达69%。这份可称亮眼的财报发布当日（4月21日），特斯拉盘中股价一度上涨12%，虽收盘时涨幅因大盘下跌收窄至3.23%，股价仍报收于1008.78美元/股。2汽车不再赚辛苦钱？在特斯拉这份亮眼的一季度财报背后，折射的不仅是新能源汽车市场需求的变迁，更进一步地，让人看到了汽车走进新能源时代后新的可能性：不再赚辛苦钱。2022年第一季度，特斯拉汽车业务的毛利率达到了32.9%，而上年同期，这一数据为26.5%。这样的毛利率如果放在农夫山泉、贵州茅台这样的消费品公司身上，可能称得上“极差”。但放在汽车产业，这样的毛利率已可登顶，外界甚至用“创纪录”来形容。图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议「子弹财观」根据东方财富Choice数据统计，当前，在A股和港股上市的整车企业约有29家，鉴于多数车企尚未发布2022年第一季度财报，因此仅对比了2020年、2021年的财务数据，而这些车企的毛利率均难以与特斯拉比拼。29家上市整车企业中，包括上汽集团、广汽集团在内的9家车企，毛利率均低于10%，曾经在新能源汽车市场春风得意的北汽蓝谷，毛利率更是低至0.81%。包括比亚迪、“汽车自主三强”吉利、长城和长安，以及造车新势力蔚来、小鹏在内的17家车企，毛利率保持在10%-20%之间。其中，走高端路线、被不断拿来与特斯拉对标的蔚来，毛利率虽然在17家车企中居首，达到18.88%，但与特斯拉仍相距较远。连特斯拉的最大对手比亚迪，毛利率也只有13.02%，创下2013年以来的新低，单看其汽车业务的毛利率，也只有17.39%，同比下降7.81%。毛利率超过21%的只有北京汽车、理想汽车两家，分别为21.4%、21.33%。而放眼国际，特斯拉这样的毛利率，也将一众豪车品牌甩到了身后。2021年，奔驰、宝马和奥迪的全年毛利率分别为12.7%、17.6%和10.7%。“特斯拉远高于汽车行业其它公司的毛利率，一方面与它较高的品牌定位有关，主销车型相对售价比较高；另一方面，在新能源汽车领域，特斯拉手握大量订单，在与上游企业比如动力电池企业谈合作时，拥有更大话语权，这也有助于其成本的降低。另外，上海超级工厂的产能提升，也近一步降低了特斯拉的成本。”一位就职于国内某造车新势力企业人士对「子弹财观」表示。而特斯拉在财报中亦直言，毛利率增长的主要原因是随着上海工厂的产能增加，Model Y的销售和生产结构发生了有利的变化。“尽管原材料、商品、物流和提速成本上升，但由于中国的本地化采购和制造，Model 3和Model Y的单位平均成本有所下降。”据悉，2021年，特斯拉上海超级工厂的交付量同比增长高达235%，达到48.41万辆，在特斯拉全年交付量93.62万辆中占比达到51.7%。在特斯拉发力欧洲市场之时，上海超级工厂更是发挥巨大作用，超过16万辆车从上海工厂交付至欧洲等海外市场。因此，也不难理解在特斯拉上海工厂将扩产的消息出现后，特斯拉股价的大涨。前述造车新势力人士进一步指出，造车新势力毛利率普遍高于传统车企，一个原因还在于造车新势力有更多赚钱渠道，比如售卖新能源积分的收入、软件服务收入等。3车企围攻特斯拉但当前看似高歌猛进的特斯拉，却未尝没有隐忧。最大的忧虑仍然来自于产能。早年间，特斯拉就曾因动力电池产能不足等原因深陷“产能地狱”。如今，虽然特斯拉的产能已得到极大提升，但可以说，产能受限仍然是特斯拉的困扰所在。随着3月22日特斯拉的柏林超级工厂开工仪式的举办，特斯拉继内华达州、纽约和上海之后，在全球拥有了第4家超级工厂。据悉，特斯拉柏林超级工厂年产量将达到50万辆，主要生产车型为Model 3和Model Y。至此，特斯拉在北美、中国、欧洲三大全球车市都建立了自己的生产基地。只有全球产能稳定了，高销量、高收入、高毛利率才有保障。但当下，特斯拉柏林工厂的产能可以说尚且处于起步阶段。而在疫情反复的当下，汽车供应链发展受阻，新能源汽车需求剧增传达到上游带来的芯片短缺、原材料涨价的问题仍未解决，在此背景下，包括特斯拉、蔚来在内的车企都曾遭遇停产危机。4月14日，小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏在其社交平台发文指出，“如果上海和周边的供应链企业还无法找到动态复工复产的方式，五月份可能中国所有的整车厂都要停工停产了。”图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议从3月28日到4月19日，特斯拉上海工厂更是经历了自建成投产以来最长的一次停产——22天。而从财报计算时间来看，停产带来的影响将主要集中在第二季度。但马斯克显然并不打算放慢扩张的脚步，其曾在电话会议上指出，2022年特斯拉汽车交付量将比2021年增长50%，甚至有可能实现60%的增长。即便按50%增长率计算，特斯拉2022年汽车交付量也将超过140万辆。随着产能的扩张，成本投入也必将随之提升。但在当前，新能源汽车原材料价格仍未见明显回落。以磷酸铁锂和三元电池的核心原材料——碳酸锂和氢氧化锂的售价为例。据上海有色金属网等市场数据，2021年初纯度为99.5%的电池级碳酸锂均价为5.3万元/吨，年末为27万元/吨，到今年4月12日，已上涨到了49.8万元/吨，期间涨幅高达839.62%，截止5月5日，均价为46.15万元/吨。纯度为56.5%的电池级氢氧化锂（微粉型）2021年初均价为5.5万元/吨，到今年4月12日已涨到49.95万元/吨，期间涨幅高达808.18%，截止5月5日，均价为47.7万元/吨。若上游原材料短期内供需仍难以实现平衡，即便如特斯拉这样的新能源汽车巨头，也终将面临压力。更大的危机还在于：特斯拉的对手越来越多了，而老对手也在卯足了劲狂奔。4月3日晚，特斯拉的最大对手比亚迪正式宣布停止燃油汽车整车生产，展露出在新能源汽车领域的野心。如今，除了比亚迪、造车新势力等玩家在分流市场，传统车企不管是BBA、大众、丰田等国际车企还是上汽、吉利、长城等中国车企，都在加速电动化转型，下场进入新能源车市拼杀。相关数据显示，2021年，保时捷Taycan在中国市场交付量达到了7315辆，全球销量41296辆，是2020年的两倍多，甚至超越了经典的保时捷 911。要知道，保时捷Taycan售价不菲，入门级88万元起，顶配180多万元，平均售价百万元级别。另据大众中国公布的数据，2021年大众ID系列在华累计销量为70625辆。此外，2021年，宝马集团纯电动汽车销量超过10万辆，同比增长133%。事实上，竞争对手增加带来的分流效应，在这几年特斯拉的市占率上已有所体现。2019年、2020年，特斯拉全球市占率分别为17%、16%。2021年，特斯拉全球电动车市占率虽仍居第一位，但市场份额已降至14.4％。而当前的特斯拉，仍然没有“第二条腿”来支撑公司前行。比如，特斯拉早在2015年即已显山露水、2019年更是大动作频发的自研自产动力电池方面，现在仍然更倾向于停留在“故事”层面。当下，汽车产业正从燃油车时代大步迈向新能源时代，这是特斯拉们的机会，但大势之下，属于特斯拉等造车新势力的发展窗口期也正在缩短，当下的好成绩，还不足以让特斯拉高枕无忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015310864,"gmtCreate":1649425897673,"gmtModify":1676534509966,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015310864","repostId":"1135927495","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135927495","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国专业的高端财富管理机构，专注于高净值客户服务和大类资产配置。百万精英人士都在关注，多次入选全国自媒体20强榜单。每日精选7篇文章与您分享，涵盖政经、投资、历史和生活，让您畅享思想与财富的盛宴。公司网址：www.licai.com","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格上财富","id":"1054268451","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb0d9ca821a4b8584db1257562b60a6"},"pubTimestamp":1649422498,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135927495?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-08 20:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Good in-depth article | Why can Buffett be sure for a lifetime?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135927495","media":"格上财富","summary":"值得一提的是，本文的作者曾在2015年在巴菲特股东大会上，向巴菲特提问：“已经管理了那么多年的伯克希尔，为什么还这么笃定、有激情？”大家猜一猜巴菲特是怎么回答的？作为大股东的巴菲特，更应该称他为资本家，而不是仅仅是投资专家。巴菲特对企业进行估值并进行投资有12条原则。管理三原则的核心是，巴菲特希望能够找到和他一样的管理者，能够有效配置公司资本，真正为股东的利益负责。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When it comes to Buffett, the \"stock god\", everyone will definitely think of his famous saying: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p>Why can he be so different and always keep it right? Where does his courage and courage to value investment come from? And how did he create a powerful<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway?</p><p>I believe, after reading so many articles about Buffett, this one must be the most unique and can impress you deeply.</p><p>The article not only has an in-depth and systematic analysis of the essential logic, breakdown point and iterative feedback of Buffett and Berkshire, but also a summary of their life beliefs, work motivation and wealth concepts, which allows us to see a fiery soul in his 90s.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the author of this article asked Buffett at Buffett's shareholders' meeting in 2015: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, so determined and passionate?\"</p><p>Guess how Buffett answered?</p><p><b>1. Who is Berkshire Hathaway?</b></p><p>Let's take a brief look at this U.S. -listed company:</p><p>Apr 06, 2022 · This company's stock price is $517,002, the highest stock in history, with a total market capitalization of $761.6 billion. In the 2022 Fortune World 500, Berkshire Hathaway ranked 11th.</p><p>If you invested $10,000 in Berkshire (BRK) stock in 1965, you would have $364 million in 2021. From 1965 to 2021, annualized compound interest was 20.1% over 56 years, far outperforming the S&P 500's 10.5% performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b8cbbfe64ee41a78836cad25dfc566\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway's total assets under management are about $1 trillion, of which 150 billion are liquid assets such as cash or bonds, 350 billion are equity holdings, and 500 billion are equity investments. It controls key infrastructure such as transportation, energy and communications in the United States, as well as many traditional enterprises with very abundant cash flows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613b2a1296919c4d72908f39d9e1045\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Guess how many people are at the headquarters of a company that manages so many assets?</p><p>25 people!</p><p>The boss of Berkshire Hathaway is the famous Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc63f94e9fa2feae9706da13776f20e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Mr. Ba, a Virgo born on August 30, 1930, invested in stocks for the first time at the age of 11. At the age of 19, he studied under Benjamin Graham, a value investment guru, and started his own limited partnership investment company at the age of 27.</p><p>According to Forbes list data, in 2022, the 92-year-old had a personal wealth of $99.6 billion, ranking sixth in the world. However, he has donated nearly 90% of his wealth to society.</p><p><b>2. What is Berkshire Hathaway's \"one\"?</b></p><p>What is Berkshire's \"one\" and how does its value proposition differ from other investment firms? Why is it that among the investment gurus such as Peter Lynch, Soros, Fisher and Dario, the public favors Buffett alone and respects him as the \"stock god\"?</p><p><b>Buffett dissolves partnership investment firm</b></p><p>After returning to Omaha from Graham's firm, Buffett opened his own investment firm in 1957, starting with $105,000 AUM. Buffett told his partners that he hopes to beat the Dow by 10 percentage points a year.</p><p>The result was that in 1957-1961, the Dow rose 75% and the partnership rose 251%. In the 10 years to 1966, the Dow rose 123% and the partnership rose 1156%. Buffett greatly exceeded his goal, and the actual result was an annualized return of 35%.</p><p>In 1969, Buffett dissolved the partnership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a9bd72d41a5981c3a77c98acb972e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What is puzzling is that such a good performance should raise funds vigorously. Why should we dissolve the partnership investment enterprise?</p><p>\"I know I don't want to manage other people's money in an environment where I don't think I can do well, or I have to do well,\" Buffett said.</p><p>1969 was indeed a crazy market, and Buffett was unwilling to change his inner investment rules.</p><p>After dissolving the partnership to invest in the business, he devoted all his energy to the textile business Berkshire Hathaway, which seemed to have \"failed\".</p><p><b>What is the difference between Berkshire and a regular fund company?</b></p><p>Berkshire is essentially a capital holding company that manages its own money, while general fund companies manage most of the money that is investors' money.</p><p>This makes Berkshire's view of money fundamentally different from that of ordinary fund companies-Berkshire regards its own money as capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda28251654185c96454258c522159b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the Foundations of Western Economics, \"Capital is a part of the means of production and the source of assets for enterprises to purchase the assets needed for production and business activities. It is investors' investment in enterprises and appears on the right side of the balance sheet. The essence of capital is to obtain profits.\"</p><p>There's a simple formula, if you don't consider the cost of capital:<b>Long Term Capital Value = Capital Investment* (1+ Return on Capital) ^ Time</b></p><p>When Berkshire manages its own capital, compared with other asset management companies, there is no capital redemption risk, and it can operate sustainably. What the company earns is the value of capital recycling.</p><p>However, the funds of asset management companies may not be managed for a long time due to market fluctuations, investors' redeemment, or the expiration of funds.</p><p><b>For both models, the capital market will also give different market capitalizations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Managing nearly $10 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of 112.3 billion, while Berkshire manages $1 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of $761.6 billion.</b></p><p>So,<b>Fund companies belong to asset management companies, and their core is short-term investment value; While Berkshire is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929513f96cdc93e8f1f6aff901425a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a major shareholder, Buffett should be called a capitalist rather than just an investment expert.</p><p><b>3. What did Berkshire Hathaway break through?</b></p><p>What has Berkshire broken down in capital management that enables it to be so different?</p><p>Since it is capital management, let's go back to Marx's Das Kapital and see what is the nature of capital?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819fc82fe96941337cb8a558b6cde057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to Marx's \"Das Kapital\": \"One of the essential characteristics of capital is its movement. The key reason why capital can increase value and bring surplus value is that it is in an endless movement, constantly entering from the circulation field into the production field, and then from the production field into the circulation field,<b>This uninterrupted movement of capital is the necessary prerequisite and condition for capital to gain value increase. Once it stops moving, capital cannot increase in value. \"</b></p><p>The most important thing to increase capital appreciation is to improve the efficiency of capital movement. The higher the efficiency of capital movement, the faster the capital appreciation.</p><p>Marx also mentioned: \"The conversion of surplus value into profit is based on the premise of the conversion of surplus value rate into profit rate, that is, with the help of profit rate, the surplus value that has been converted into the excess of cost price is further converted into the balance of prepaid total capital exceeding its own value within a certain turnover period. In short,<b>Surplus value is the intrinsic essence or entity, while profit is the external phenomenon or form. \"</b></p><p><b>So according to Marx's theory, is a company with a high net profit margin necessarily a good company?</b></p><p>Buffett once said: \"There are three most important things in investment. The first is to keep the principal, the second is to keep the principal, and the third is to always keep the first two in mind.\"</p><p>Let's take a look at what Buffett's first teacher, Benjamin Graham, said-\"Investment is an analysis that promises principal security and provides satisfactory returns. What can't meet these requirements is speculation.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89dfa71e7e4773ac3c60ee71e5927dc7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And he mentioned \"<b>Margin of safety</b>\"This important word:\" People are willing to pay any price for stocks, without thinking about quantitative analysis at all. Any price marked by market optimism seems to be worth the money. At the top of this madness, the line between investment and speculation is blurred. Pick stocks with a margin of safety approach. \"</p><p>Then according to a simple mathematical equation:<b>Margin of Safety = Enterprise Value-Enterprise Price</b>It can be seen that the price of enterprises can be found in the market, so how to correctly evaluate the value of enterprises becomes the top priority.</p><p>At this time, we got a very familiar term-value investment, which is an effective evaluation of the true value of a business.</p><p>Buffett has 12 principles for valuing businesses and investing in them.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c568e1c94d873abf3872d07f97244\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The core of the three principles of enterprise is</b>He said: \"I don't challenge difficult movements, like hurdles in sports, with a 1-foot pole, I would never choose 7 feet.\"</p><p><b>The core of the three principles of management is</b>Buffett hopes to find managers like him who can effectively allocate the company's capital and truly be responsible for the interests of shareholders.</p><p><b>The core of the four financial principles is</b>How to find indicators and indicator groups that correctly reflect the operating ability of enterprises, calculate the real \"shareholders' surplus\", and find enterprises with high profit margins.</p><p><b>The core of the market two principle is</b>Use the conversion of future cash flow to determine the market value of the enterprise, and then according to the margin of safety, relative to the market value of the enterprise, whether it can be purchased at a discounted price.</p><p>I looked up several businesses that Buffett had held for many years, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>Even if not all the 12 principles are applied, most of them are consistent.</p><p><b>So, in the second question, \"What did Berkshire break through,\" the answer is enterprise value with a margin of safety.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/277c6234e6288f79b3610d9650bb1627\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. What is Berkshire Hathaway's iterative feedback?</b></p><p>As a diversified holding enterprise, Berkshire manages nearly one trillion dollars of assets, of which most of the unlisted companies are wholly-owned or can consolidate statements, while the listed companies mostly hold relatively large shareholders or have board seats.</p><p>Berkshire's various subsidiaries generate significant cash flows that are provided to the Omaha headquarters. The cash was derived from floating funds from the huge insurance business and operating earnings from wholly-owned non-financial subsidiaries.</p><p>Berkshire reinvests this cash as a capital element, investing in opportunities that generate more cash.</p><p>Each subsidiary has a talented management team responsible for day-to-day work, so that Buffett can focus 100% of his energy and focus on efficient capital allocation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61330d054d1b7f536760a6ec2b4882b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How does Buffett allocate capital efficiently?</b></p><p>John Whitmore has this formula for efficacy: P = P-i, where the first P is performance, meaning efficacy, and the second P is Potential, meaning Potential, and i is interference, meaning interference.</p><p>The potential of people is mostly the same, but the interference values vary greatly. Our efficiency is low, not because of low potential, but because there is too much interference.</p><p>So, how does Buffett reduce the interference?</p><p><b>Minimalist Living in Omaha</b></p><p>First Buffett lives neither in New York in the east nor in Los Angeles in the west, but in Omaha, Nebraska in the middle. His office is an office building that has been used for 60 years, and only half a floor is rented; Living in a house bought 60 years ago for $50,000. It has become Buffett's lifelong habit to quietly read annual reports and make phone calls in the office every day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc10f30a7dd991037d5f3e2baa31b325\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Concentrated investment to reduce the number of decisions</b></p><p>Based on Markowitz's modern asset portfolio theory, Eugene Farma's efficient market hypothesis and Sharp's capital pricing model, most asset managers will regard volatility as the biggest risk in the capital market, so dispersion and irrelevance are the most important ways to control risk. For example, when digging a pool, you choose a 1km wide cut and make a 1m deep cut.</p><p>And Buffett thinks<b>The biggest risk is the loss of the intrinsic value of the enterprise</b>If the value is gone, the margin of safety is gone, and the stock should be sold. Choose excellent value enterprises, and the number of enterprises that can be thoroughly analyzed must not be many. Therefore, when Buffett dug the pool, he chose a 1-meter-wide incision and played a 1-kilometer-deep incision.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77627ec8ccc4f3066312ba73226eabd6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In concentration and decentralization, Buffett chose the incredible concentration of shareholding, reducing the number of decisions and the number of mistakes. Buffett's trading is to keep holding in order not to trade and find good businesses, which is a \"hard but correct thing\".</b></p><p><b>Mathematical probability theory as the foundation</b></p><p>Speaking about decision-making, Buffett said: \"All we have to do is multiply the probability of profit by the amount of possible profit, and subtract the probability of loss by the amount of possible loss.\"</p><p>In 1654,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTH\">Bryce</a>Some correspondence between Pascal and Pierre de Fermat laid the foundation of probability theory, Fermat using algebraic methods and Pascal using geometric methods. The work of Pascal and Fermat marked the beginning of decision theory, the process of deciding what to do when you are unsure of what is going to happen.</p><p>The Bayer analysis provides a mathematical procedure that adjusts our original expectations based on newly acquired information to change the corresponding odds. Bayer analysis is used in universities to help students learn decision-making, and in the classroom, it is called decision tree theory. \"At Harvard Business School, all you learned in your first year, when combined, was actually decision tree theory,\" Munger said.</p><p>Shannon's 1948 Mathematical Theory of Communication creatively employed the probability theory approach to the study of problems in communication. On the basis of Shannon's information theory, the mathematician Kelly established the optimization formula.</p><p>In 1956, Kelly wrote A New Interpretation of Information Rates, proposing optimized growth strategies: If you know your probability of success, you know the proportion of how much to allocate. The formula is: 2p-1= X, if the probability of winning is 55%, then 2*55%-1=10%, at this time, the ratio of 10% should be configured; If the probability of winning is 75%, then 275%-1=50%, at which time a 50% ratio should be allocated.</p><p>Buffett is often very cautious when applying Kelly's optimization formula. When the result is 20% allocation ratio, he will appropriately reduce the ratio on this basis, usually 1/2 or 1/3 of the original value.</p><p>Therefore, from the perspective of probability theory, Buffett's investment decision-making process is as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64eba4e2c9f130f862467a0165a370f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Shield Mr. Market's Quote Impact</b></p><p>Looking at such a stock in the chart below, you may think that it is too volatile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1ae058eee580faf61d4afc29ce028b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But looking at this stock, you think the sooner you get on the bus, the better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32802a41a2ffc564de009d457f6f7e27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But these two pictures are actually the same stock, the famous Apple company, but the time and frequency of observing the stock price are different.</p><p>Buffett said:<b>\"Investing is like playing baseball. To score, people have to focus on the field instead of staring at the scoreboard.\"</b></p><p>When the market price fluctuates up and down, Buffett's calm is natural-his heart takes the intrinsic value of the enterprise not to lose as the risk control standard, not the stock price.</p><p>Buffett has a famous saying that is said to be bad: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p><b>Buffett is determined by value, while others fear and greed by stock price.</b>When the market falls, it is the biggest buying opportunity, because the margin of safety is wider.</p><p><b>Conclusions of Behavioral Finance</b></p><p>In 2011, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, divided cognitive processes into two modes of thinking: intuition and reason, that is, System 1 and System 2. Decisions in System 1 are mostly mechanical, quick, and unthoughtful; System 2 decisions are carefully thought out, scrutinized, and require focus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c545d82aaeb89ecb841eabb11dae6c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Buffett's strictest requirements for himself and the management of the invested enterprises are rationality, especially the rationality reflected in the efficient allocation of capital.</p><p>\"Our job is to pick out good businesses that end up creating more than a dollar of capital value for every dollar they keep,\" Buffett said.</p><p>When the invested capital moves repeatedly, bringing about capital value, this simple and magical formula is completed: long-term capital value = capital investment * (1+ return on capital) ^ time.</p><p>Simple things, because there are few variables affecting their outcome, are often the least risky things and the most lasting things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18f57e51abe315a60a559041daee619\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking at Berkshire's \"one-thinking\" framework as a whole, the breakdown point of investment based on value has a very strong isomorphism with Berkshire managed by Buffett himself. Buffett screens investment enterprises according to his own appearance.</p><p>In this way, multiple Berkshire fractals are produced, which constantly resonate at the same frequency, and enhance the overall capital value of Berkshire.</p><p>But in the face of this simple and magical formula: long-term capital value = capital investment* (1+ return on capital) ^ time, always ask yourself:</p><p><b>Is it true?</b></p><p><b>Is it always true?</b></p><p><b>Are there any exceptions?</b></p><p><b>5. What is Berkshire Hathaway's axiomatic thinking?</b></p><p>In 1776, Adam Smith wrote an exquisite description in The Wealth of Nations: \"The food and drink we need every day is not by the favour of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, but by their own self-interest. Every individual who uses capital and labor neither intends to promote the public good nor knows to what extent he himself promotes that good. He is guided by an invisible hand to try his best to achieve an end that is not his intention to achieve. By pursuing his own interests, he often promotes the interests of society. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9c5b098969269ceca30e73d663687e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The magnificent development of American market economy and capital market in the past 60 years has created the environment of Buffett's wealth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1559b849f9f8a134db2d12f669a8d67\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how did Buffett, who has huge wealth, face it?</b></p><p>Buffett said:</p><p>\"Whenever I told Susan that we were going to get rich, she never showed much excitement. She either didn't care or didn't believe it. When we really accumulated great wealth, we had a fairly tacit approach to disposing of it, that is, giving it back to society.\"</p><p>\"Susan and I have never felt that we should leave so much money to our children. Our children are excellent. However, I want to make it clear that they have taken advantage in their upbringing and educational opportunities; therefore, it is neither right nor rational to give them countless dollars.\"</p><p>\"In fact, they already have an overwhelming lead in a society that advocates elites. The vast wealth of generations will further exacerbate the social equity we should be trying to maintain.\"</p><p>At the New York Public Library on June 26, 2006, Buffett took out five envelopes, each containing an arrangement for the distribution of his wealth, waiting only for his signature to take effect. The first three envelopes were simple. He signed them \"Dad\" and gave them to his three children: his daughter Susie, his eldest son Howard, and his second son Peter. The fourth letter was handed over to the representative of the charitable foundation to which the late wife donated. The four letters give a combined amount of wealth of $6 billion.</p><p>After Buffett signed the fifth letter, he handed it over to Melinda, the wife of Bill Gates at the time. In the letter, Buffett donated his Berkshire stock, then worth $30 billion, to the world's largest charity, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p><p>\"They can use money more efficiently, and find the person who does things according to your ideas and does it better. Wouldn't it be more logical to entrust things to them,\" Buffett said?</p><p>This is the typical Buffett, always full of reason.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c7926fdcbed0cb8a02ecdaa6f52efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, in Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism, Max Weber says:</p><p>\"The so-called spirit of capitalism means that individuals regard their efforts to increase their own capital and their activities for that purpose as an action of due diligence, and that making money itself as an end, a professional responsibility, an expression of virtue and ability.\"</p><p>\"This economic behavior of modern rational capitalism is perfectly consistent with the well-organized and systematic ascetic lifestyle of the Protestants. The Protestant ascetic ethic provides a psychological<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>And moral energy. \"</p><p>- -Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism by Max Weber</p><p>The capitalist spirit, that is, the Puritan spirit, regards the acquisition of wealth as a way to glorify God, and the sharing of wealth as a work for God.</p><p>In this way, Berkshire's \"One Mind\" framework diagram is complete.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55e7bcb4e3c3d92076adb49997e8cf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Berkshire's value proposition is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</p><p>The breakdown point is value investment, which improves the efficiency of capital movement.</p><p>Iteration is the effective allocation of assets by capital, and feedback is the capital appreciation brought by assets.</p><p><b>The axiomatic thinking that underpins this \"one-thinking\" model is political economy and mathematics, which are the cornerstones of the Wealth of Nations, and the Puritan spirit becomes the source of inner determination when possessing wealth.</b></p><p><b>6. Why talk about Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett?</b></p><p>Can Berkshire and Buffett be replicated, one may ask? The answer is NO.</p><p>The United States of the 20th century, the corporate values of \"serving the interests of shareholders\", the abundant insurance float, the non-hedge fund mechanism, and the interactive resources with the Federal Reserve in times of crisis are all opportunities that non-ordinary asset managers or capitalists have.</p><p>Then why talk about Berkshire and Buffett?</p><p>George Johnson in Flame in the Heart says, \"Between reality and illusion, deep inside each person wants to discover a pattern to integrate the disordered world.\"</p><p>Everyone is looking for a pattern in their own inner world, but too much information interference and inner disorder make many people unable to find that way back.</p><p>Buffett said, \"<b>Our attitude is to align our personalities with the way we want to live.</b>\"When he breaks down value investing, he is breaking down his own way of living and managing, that is, his life.</p><p>What we want to learn is this spirit, aiming at pursuing commercial value, living thriftily, pursuing quality but not wasting, and finally giving back wealth to society.</p><p>That's true of Buffett, Berkshire, and all the businesses invested in.</p><p>Therefore, in 2015, at Buffett's shareholders' meeting, I had the opportunity to ask Buffett through a lucky lottery: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, still so determined and passionate?\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d14c232fa07e1a04dedda5596f316fe3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He replied, \"<b>I have the life I want and I love every day. I mean, I tap-dance to work every day, drink six cans of Coke every day, and work with those people I like. There's nothing in the world like me working at Berkshire, and I'm lucky to be here.</b>”</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>One of my favorite books, \"When Human Stars Shine,\" says, \"<b>The greatest luck in a man's life is to discover his life mission in the middle of his life, that is, when he is young and powerful.</b>”</p><p>Perhaps Buffett discovered his mission in life not in middle age, but as a teenager.</p><p>This kind of energy for people and careers to fulfill the mission call together is great, and the happiness of people and affairs is strong. This kind of love for people, things and society is what we should learn, and it is also the real determination in Buffett's heart.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good in-depth article | Why can Buffett be sure for a lifetime?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood in-depth article | Why can Buffett be sure for a lifetime?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1054268451\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb0d9ca821a4b8584db1257562b60a6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格上财富 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-08 20:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When it comes to Buffett, the \"stock god\", everyone will definitely think of his famous saying: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p>Why can he be so different and always keep it right? Where does his courage and courage to value investment come from? And how did he create a powerful<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway?</p><p>I believe, after reading so many articles about Buffett, this one must be the most unique and can impress you deeply.</p><p>The article not only has an in-depth and systematic analysis of the essential logic, breakdown point and iterative feedback of Buffett and Berkshire, but also a summary of their life beliefs, work motivation and wealth concepts, which allows us to see a fiery soul in his 90s.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that the author of this article asked Buffett at Buffett's shareholders' meeting in 2015: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, so determined and passionate?\"</p><p>Guess how Buffett answered?</p><p><b>1. Who is Berkshire Hathaway?</b></p><p>Let's take a brief look at this U.S. -listed company:</p><p>Apr 06, 2022 · This company's stock price is $517,002, the highest stock in history, with a total market capitalization of $761.6 billion. In the 2022 Fortune World 500, Berkshire Hathaway ranked 11th.</p><p>If you invested $10,000 in Berkshire (BRK) stock in 1965, you would have $364 million in 2021. From 1965 to 2021, annualized compound interest was 20.1% over 56 years, far outperforming the S&P 500's 10.5% performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b8cbbfe64ee41a78836cad25dfc566\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway's total assets under management are about $1 trillion, of which 150 billion are liquid assets such as cash or bonds, 350 billion are equity holdings, and 500 billion are equity investments. It controls key infrastructure such as transportation, energy and communications in the United States, as well as many traditional enterprises with very abundant cash flows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a613b2a1296919c4d72908f39d9e1045\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Guess how many people are at the headquarters of a company that manages so many assets?</p><p>25 people!</p><p>The boss of Berkshire Hathaway is the famous Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc63f94e9fa2feae9706da13776f20e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Mr. Ba, a Virgo born on August 30, 1930, invested in stocks for the first time at the age of 11. At the age of 19, he studied under Benjamin Graham, a value investment guru, and started his own limited partnership investment company at the age of 27.</p><p>According to Forbes list data, in 2022, the 92-year-old had a personal wealth of $99.6 billion, ranking sixth in the world. However, he has donated nearly 90% of his wealth to society.</p><p><b>2. What is Berkshire Hathaway's \"one\"?</b></p><p>What is Berkshire's \"one\" and how does its value proposition differ from other investment firms? Why is it that among the investment gurus such as Peter Lynch, Soros, Fisher and Dario, the public favors Buffett alone and respects him as the \"stock god\"?</p><p><b>Buffett dissolves partnership investment firm</b></p><p>After returning to Omaha from Graham's firm, Buffett opened his own investment firm in 1957, starting with $105,000 AUM. Buffett told his partners that he hopes to beat the Dow by 10 percentage points a year.</p><p>The result was that in 1957-1961, the Dow rose 75% and the partnership rose 251%. In the 10 years to 1966, the Dow rose 123% and the partnership rose 1156%. Buffett greatly exceeded his goal, and the actual result was an annualized return of 35%.</p><p>In 1969, Buffett dissolved the partnership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a9bd72d41a5981c3a77c98acb972e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What is puzzling is that such a good performance should raise funds vigorously. Why should we dissolve the partnership investment enterprise?</p><p>\"I know I don't want to manage other people's money in an environment where I don't think I can do well, or I have to do well,\" Buffett said.</p><p>1969 was indeed a crazy market, and Buffett was unwilling to change his inner investment rules.</p><p>After dissolving the partnership to invest in the business, he devoted all his energy to the textile business Berkshire Hathaway, which seemed to have \"failed\".</p><p><b>What is the difference between Berkshire and a regular fund company?</b></p><p>Berkshire is essentially a capital holding company that manages its own money, while general fund companies manage most of the money that is investors' money.</p><p>This makes Berkshire's view of money fundamentally different from that of ordinary fund companies-Berkshire regards its own money as capital.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda28251654185c96454258c522159b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the Foundations of Western Economics, \"Capital is a part of the means of production and the source of assets for enterprises to purchase the assets needed for production and business activities. It is investors' investment in enterprises and appears on the right side of the balance sheet. The essence of capital is to obtain profits.\"</p><p>There's a simple formula, if you don't consider the cost of capital:<b>Long Term Capital Value = Capital Investment* (1+ Return on Capital) ^ Time</b></p><p>When Berkshire manages its own capital, compared with other asset management companies, there is no capital redemption risk, and it can operate sustainably. What the company earns is the value of capital recycling.</p><p>However, the funds of asset management companies may not be managed for a long time due to market fluctuations, investors' redeemment, or the expiration of funds.</p><p><b>For both models, the capital market will also give different market capitalizations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Managing nearly $10 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of 112.3 billion, while Berkshire manages $1 trillion in assets with a market capitalization of $761.6 billion.</b></p><p>So,<b>Fund companies belong to asset management companies, and their core is short-term investment value; While Berkshire is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929513f96cdc93e8f1f6aff901425a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a major shareholder, Buffett should be called a capitalist rather than just an investment expert.</p><p><b>3. What did Berkshire Hathaway break through?</b></p><p>What has Berkshire broken down in capital management that enables it to be so different?</p><p>Since it is capital management, let's go back to Marx's Das Kapital and see what is the nature of capital?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819fc82fe96941337cb8a558b6cde057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to Marx's \"Das Kapital\": \"One of the essential characteristics of capital is its movement. The key reason why capital can increase value and bring surplus value is that it is in an endless movement, constantly entering from the circulation field into the production field, and then from the production field into the circulation field,<b>This uninterrupted movement of capital is the necessary prerequisite and condition for capital to gain value increase. Once it stops moving, capital cannot increase in value. \"</b></p><p>The most important thing to increase capital appreciation is to improve the efficiency of capital movement. The higher the efficiency of capital movement, the faster the capital appreciation.</p><p>Marx also mentioned: \"The conversion of surplus value into profit is based on the premise of the conversion of surplus value rate into profit rate, that is, with the help of profit rate, the surplus value that has been converted into the excess of cost price is further converted into the balance of prepaid total capital exceeding its own value within a certain turnover period. In short,<b>Surplus value is the intrinsic essence or entity, while profit is the external phenomenon or form. \"</b></p><p><b>So according to Marx's theory, is a company with a high net profit margin necessarily a good company?</b></p><p>Buffett once said: \"There are three most important things in investment. The first is to keep the principal, the second is to keep the principal, and the third is to always keep the first two in mind.\"</p><p>Let's take a look at what Buffett's first teacher, Benjamin Graham, said-\"Investment is an analysis that promises principal security and provides satisfactory returns. What can't meet these requirements is speculation.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89dfa71e7e4773ac3c60ee71e5927dc7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And he mentioned \"<b>Margin of safety</b>\"This important word:\" People are willing to pay any price for stocks, without thinking about quantitative analysis at all. Any price marked by market optimism seems to be worth the money. At the top of this madness, the line between investment and speculation is blurred. Pick stocks with a margin of safety approach. \"</p><p>Then according to a simple mathematical equation:<b>Margin of Safety = Enterprise Value-Enterprise Price</b>It can be seen that the price of enterprises can be found in the market, so how to correctly evaluate the value of enterprises becomes the top priority.</p><p>At this time, we got a very familiar term-value investment, which is an effective evaluation of the true value of a business.</p><p>Buffett has 12 principles for valuing businesses and investing in them.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c568e1c94d873abf3872d07f97244\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The core of the three principles of enterprise is</b>He said: \"I don't challenge difficult movements, like hurdles in sports, with a 1-foot pole, I would never choose 7 feet.\"</p><p><b>The core of the three principles of management is</b>Buffett hopes to find managers like him who can effectively allocate the company's capital and truly be responsible for the interests of shareholders.</p><p><b>The core of the four financial principles is</b>How to find indicators and indicator groups that correctly reflect the operating ability of enterprises, calculate the real \"shareholders' surplus\", and find enterprises with high profit margins.</p><p><b>The core of the market two principle is</b>Use the conversion of future cash flow to determine the market value of the enterprise, and then according to the margin of safety, relative to the market value of the enterprise, whether it can be purchased at a discounted price.</p><p>I looked up several businesses that Buffett had held for many years, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca Cola</a>Even if not all the 12 principles are applied, most of them are consistent.</p><p><b>So, in the second question, \"What did Berkshire break through,\" the answer is enterprise value with a margin of safety.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/277c6234e6288f79b3610d9650bb1627\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. What is Berkshire Hathaway's iterative feedback?</b></p><p>As a diversified holding enterprise, Berkshire manages nearly one trillion dollars of assets, of which most of the unlisted companies are wholly-owned or can consolidate statements, while the listed companies mostly hold relatively large shareholders or have board seats.</p><p>Berkshire's various subsidiaries generate significant cash flows that are provided to the Omaha headquarters. The cash was derived from floating funds from the huge insurance business and operating earnings from wholly-owned non-financial subsidiaries.</p><p>Berkshire reinvests this cash as a capital element, investing in opportunities that generate more cash.</p><p>Each subsidiary has a talented management team responsible for day-to-day work, so that Buffett can focus 100% of his energy and focus on efficient capital allocation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61330d054d1b7f536760a6ec2b4882b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How does Buffett allocate capital efficiently?</b></p><p>John Whitmore has this formula for efficacy: P = P-i, where the first P is performance, meaning efficacy, and the second P is Potential, meaning Potential, and i is interference, meaning interference.</p><p>The potential of people is mostly the same, but the interference values vary greatly. Our efficiency is low, not because of low potential, but because there is too much interference.</p><p>So, how does Buffett reduce the interference?</p><p><b>Minimalist Living in Omaha</b></p><p>First Buffett lives neither in New York in the east nor in Los Angeles in the west, but in Omaha, Nebraska in the middle. His office is an office building that has been used for 60 years, and only half a floor is rented; Living in a house bought 60 years ago for $50,000. It has become Buffett's lifelong habit to quietly read annual reports and make phone calls in the office every day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc10f30a7dd991037d5f3e2baa31b325\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Concentrated investment to reduce the number of decisions</b></p><p>Based on Markowitz's modern asset portfolio theory, Eugene Farma's efficient market hypothesis and Sharp's capital pricing model, most asset managers will regard volatility as the biggest risk in the capital market, so dispersion and irrelevance are the most important ways to control risk. For example, when digging a pool, you choose a 1km wide cut and make a 1m deep cut.</p><p>And Buffett thinks<b>The biggest risk is the loss of the intrinsic value of the enterprise</b>If the value is gone, the margin of safety is gone, and the stock should be sold. Choose excellent value enterprises, and the number of enterprises that can be thoroughly analyzed must not be many. Therefore, when Buffett dug the pool, he chose a 1-meter-wide incision and played a 1-kilometer-deep incision.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77627ec8ccc4f3066312ba73226eabd6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In concentration and decentralization, Buffett chose the incredible concentration of shareholding, reducing the number of decisions and the number of mistakes. Buffett's trading is to keep holding in order not to trade and find good businesses, which is a \"hard but correct thing\".</b></p><p><b>Mathematical probability theory as the foundation</b></p><p>Speaking about decision-making, Buffett said: \"All we have to do is multiply the probability of profit by the amount of possible profit, and subtract the probability of loss by the amount of possible loss.\"</p><p>In 1654,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTH\">Bryce</a>Some correspondence between Pascal and Pierre de Fermat laid the foundation of probability theory, Fermat using algebraic methods and Pascal using geometric methods. The work of Pascal and Fermat marked the beginning of decision theory, the process of deciding what to do when you are unsure of what is going to happen.</p><p>The Bayer analysis provides a mathematical procedure that adjusts our original expectations based on newly acquired information to change the corresponding odds. Bayer analysis is used in universities to help students learn decision-making, and in the classroom, it is called decision tree theory. \"At Harvard Business School, all you learned in your first year, when combined, was actually decision tree theory,\" Munger said.</p><p>Shannon's 1948 Mathematical Theory of Communication creatively employed the probability theory approach to the study of problems in communication. On the basis of Shannon's information theory, the mathematician Kelly established the optimization formula.</p><p>In 1956, Kelly wrote A New Interpretation of Information Rates, proposing optimized growth strategies: If you know your probability of success, you know the proportion of how much to allocate. The formula is: 2p-1= X, if the probability of winning is 55%, then 2*55%-1=10%, at this time, the ratio of 10% should be configured; If the probability of winning is 75%, then 275%-1=50%, at which time a 50% ratio should be allocated.</p><p>Buffett is often very cautious when applying Kelly's optimization formula. When the result is 20% allocation ratio, he will appropriately reduce the ratio on this basis, usually 1/2 or 1/3 of the original value.</p><p>Therefore, from the perspective of probability theory, Buffett's investment decision-making process is as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64eba4e2c9f130f862467a0165a370f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Shield Mr. Market's Quote Impact</b></p><p>Looking at such a stock in the chart below, you may think that it is too volatile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1ae058eee580faf61d4afc29ce028b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But looking at this stock, you think the sooner you get on the bus, the better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32802a41a2ffc564de009d457f6f7e27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But these two pictures are actually the same stock, the famous Apple company, but the time and frequency of observing the stock price are different.</p><p>Buffett said:<b>\"Investing is like playing baseball. To score, people have to focus on the field instead of staring at the scoreboard.\"</b></p><p>When the market price fluctuates up and down, Buffett's calm is natural-his heart takes the intrinsic value of the enterprise not to lose as the risk control standard, not the stock price.</p><p>Buffett has a famous saying that is said to be bad: \"When others are afraid, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am afraid.\"</p><p><b>Buffett is determined by value, while others fear and greed by stock price.</b>When the market falls, it is the biggest buying opportunity, because the margin of safety is wider.</p><p><b>Conclusions of Behavioral Finance</b></p><p>In 2011, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, divided cognitive processes into two modes of thinking: intuition and reason, that is, System 1 and System 2. Decisions in System 1 are mostly mechanical, quick, and unthoughtful; System 2 decisions are carefully thought out, scrutinized, and require focus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c545d82aaeb89ecb841eabb11dae6c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Buffett's strictest requirements for himself and the management of the invested enterprises are rationality, especially the rationality reflected in the efficient allocation of capital.</p><p>\"Our job is to pick out good businesses that end up creating more than a dollar of capital value for every dollar they keep,\" Buffett said.</p><p>When the invested capital moves repeatedly, bringing about capital value, this simple and magical formula is completed: long-term capital value = capital investment * (1+ return on capital) ^ time.</p><p>Simple things, because there are few variables affecting their outcome, are often the least risky things and the most lasting things.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18f57e51abe315a60a559041daee619\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking at Berkshire's \"one-thinking\" framework as a whole, the breakdown point of investment based on value has a very strong isomorphism with Berkshire managed by Buffett himself. Buffett screens investment enterprises according to his own appearance.</p><p>In this way, multiple Berkshire fractals are produced, which constantly resonate at the same frequency, and enhance the overall capital value of Berkshire.</p><p>But in the face of this simple and magical formula: long-term capital value = capital investment* (1+ return on capital) ^ time, always ask yourself:</p><p><b>Is it true?</b></p><p><b>Is it always true?</b></p><p><b>Are there any exceptions?</b></p><p><b>5. What is Berkshire Hathaway's axiomatic thinking?</b></p><p>In 1776, Adam Smith wrote an exquisite description in The Wealth of Nations: \"The food and drink we need every day is not by the favour of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, but by their own self-interest. Every individual who uses capital and labor neither intends to promote the public good nor knows to what extent he himself promotes that good. He is guided by an invisible hand to try his best to achieve an end that is not his intention to achieve. By pursuing his own interests, he often promotes the interests of society. \"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9c5b098969269ceca30e73d663687e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The magnificent development of American market economy and capital market in the past 60 years has created the environment of Buffett's wealth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1559b849f9f8a134db2d12f669a8d67\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how did Buffett, who has huge wealth, face it?</b></p><p>Buffett said:</p><p>\"Whenever I told Susan that we were going to get rich, she never showed much excitement. She either didn't care or didn't believe it. When we really accumulated great wealth, we had a fairly tacit approach to disposing of it, that is, giving it back to society.\"</p><p>\"Susan and I have never felt that we should leave so much money to our children. Our children are excellent. However, I want to make it clear that they have taken advantage in their upbringing and educational opportunities; therefore, it is neither right nor rational to give them countless dollars.\"</p><p>\"In fact, they already have an overwhelming lead in a society that advocates elites. The vast wealth of generations will further exacerbate the social equity we should be trying to maintain.\"</p><p>At the New York Public Library on June 26, 2006, Buffett took out five envelopes, each containing an arrangement for the distribution of his wealth, waiting only for his signature to take effect. The first three envelopes were simple. He signed them \"Dad\" and gave them to his three children: his daughter Susie, his eldest son Howard, and his second son Peter. The fourth letter was handed over to the representative of the charitable foundation to which the late wife donated. The four letters give a combined amount of wealth of $6 billion.</p><p>After Buffett signed the fifth letter, he handed it over to Melinda, the wife of Bill Gates at the time. In the letter, Buffett donated his Berkshire stock, then worth $30 billion, to the world's largest charity, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p><p>\"They can use money more efficiently, and find the person who does things according to your ideas and does it better. Wouldn't it be more logical to entrust things to them,\" Buffett said?</p><p>This is the typical Buffett, always full of reason.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c7926fdcbed0cb8a02ecdaa6f52efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, in Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism, Max Weber says:</p><p>\"The so-called spirit of capitalism means that individuals regard their efforts to increase their own capital and their activities for that purpose as an action of due diligence, and that making money itself as an end, a professional responsibility, an expression of virtue and ability.\"</p><p>\"This economic behavior of modern rational capitalism is perfectly consistent with the well-organized and systematic ascetic lifestyle of the Protestants. The Protestant ascetic ethic provides a psychological<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">driving force</a>And moral energy. \"</p><p>- -Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism by Max Weber</p><p>The capitalist spirit, that is, the Puritan spirit, regards the acquisition of wealth as a way to glorify God, and the sharing of wealth as a work for God.</p><p>In this way, Berkshire's \"One Mind\" framework diagram is complete.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55e7bcb4e3c3d92076adb49997e8cf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Berkshire's value proposition is a capital holding company that pursues long-term capital value.</p><p>The breakdown point is value investment, which improves the efficiency of capital movement.</p><p>Iteration is the effective allocation of assets by capital, and feedback is the capital appreciation brought by assets.</p><p><b>The axiomatic thinking that underpins this \"one-thinking\" model is political economy and mathematics, which are the cornerstones of the Wealth of Nations, and the Puritan spirit becomes the source of inner determination when possessing wealth.</b></p><p><b>6. Why talk about Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett?</b></p><p>Can Berkshire and Buffett be replicated, one may ask? The answer is NO.</p><p>The United States of the 20th century, the corporate values of \"serving the interests of shareholders\", the abundant insurance float, the non-hedge fund mechanism, and the interactive resources with the Federal Reserve in times of crisis are all opportunities that non-ordinary asset managers or capitalists have.</p><p>Then why talk about Berkshire and Buffett?</p><p>George Johnson in Flame in the Heart says, \"Between reality and illusion, deep inside each person wants to discover a pattern to integrate the disordered world.\"</p><p>Everyone is looking for a pattern in their own inner world, but too much information interference and inner disorder make many people unable to find that way back.</p><p>Buffett said, \"<b>Our attitude is to align our personalities with the way we want to live.</b>\"When he breaks down value investing, he is breaking down his own way of living and managing, that is, his life.</p><p>What we want to learn is this spirit, aiming at pursuing commercial value, living thriftily, pursuing quality but not wasting, and finally giving back wealth to society.</p><p>That's true of Buffett, Berkshire, and all the businesses invested in.</p><p>Therefore, in 2015, at Buffett's shareholders' meeting, I had the opportunity to ask Buffett through a lucky lottery: \"Why is Berkshire, which has been managing for so many years, still so determined and passionate?\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d14c232fa07e1a04dedda5596f316fe3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He replied, \"<b>I have the life I want and I love every day. I mean, I tap-dance to work every day, drink six cans of Coke every day, and work with those people I like. There's nothing in the world like me working at Berkshire, and I'm lucky to be here.</b>”</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>One of my favorite books, \"When Human Stars Shine,\" says, \"<b>The greatest luck in a man's life is to discover his life mission in the middle of his life, that is, when he is young and powerful.</b>”</p><p>Perhaps Buffett discovered his mission in life not in middle age, but as a teenager.</p><p>This kind of energy for people and careers to fulfill the mission call together is great, and the happiness of people and affairs is strong. This kind of love for people, things and society is what we should learn, and it is also the real determination in Buffett's heart.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c18dea7f7a333a9914ece4ba2cae08f4","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135927495","content_text":"提到“股神”巴菲特，大家一定会想起他那句名言：“在别人恐惧的时候，我贪婪，别人贪婪的时候，我恐惧。”他为什么能如此与众不同，还总是保持正确？他对价值投资的胆识和魄力究竟来自哪里？他又是如何缔造出强大的伯克希尔·哈撒韦？相信，看过那么多关于巴菲特的文章，这一篇一定是最独特，且能让你印象深刻的。文章不仅有对巴菲特和伯克希尔的本质逻辑，击穿点和迭代反馈的相关分析，深度且成体系，还有对其人生信念，工作动力，财富观念的总结，让我们看到了一个90多岁的炽热灵魂。值得一提的是，本文的作者曾在2015年在巴菲特股东大会上，向巴菲特提问：“已经管理了那么多年的伯克希尔，为什么还这么笃定、有激情？”大家猜一猜巴菲特是怎么回答的？1、伯克希尔·哈撒韦是谁？先来看看这家美国上市公司的简要情况：2022年4月6日这家公司股价是517002美元，是历史上股价最高的股票，总市值7616亿美元。在2022年财富世界500强中，伯克希尔·哈撒韦排名第11位。如果1965年投资1万美元购买伯克希尔（BRK）股票，那么在2021年你将拥有3.64亿美元。从1965年到2021年，56年来年化复利20.1%，远超标普500的10.5%的表现。伯克希尔·哈撒韦管理的总资产约1万亿美元，其中1500亿是现金或债券等流动性资产，3500亿是持仓股票，5000亿是股权投资，控制着美国的运输、能源和通讯等关键基础设施，以及很多现金流非常充裕的传统企业。猜猜管理这么多资产的公司总部有多少人？25人！而伯克希尔哈撒韦的老板，就是大名鼎鼎的巴菲特。巴老爷子，1930年8月30日出生的处女座，11岁第一次投资股票，19岁师从价值投资大师本杰明·格雷厄姆，27岁创业开办了自己的有限合伙投资公司。据福布斯排行榜数据，2022年，92岁的他个人财富为996亿美元，居全球第6位。然而，他已将自己近90%的财富捐给了社会。2、伯克希尔·哈撒韦的“一”是什么？伯克希尔的“一”是什么，其价值主张与其它的投资公司有什么不同？为什么在彼得·林奇、索罗斯、费雪、达里欧等投资大师中，大众独宠巴菲特一人，尊称其为“股神”？巴菲特解散合伙投资公司从格雷厄姆的公司回到奥马哈后，巴菲特于1957年开办了自己的投资公司，从10.5万美元的资产管理规模开始。巴菲特告诉他的合伙人，他希望每年战胜道琼斯指数10个百分点。结果是1957-1961年，道指上升75%，合伙企业上升251%，到1966年共10年里，道指上升123%，合伙企业上升1156%，巴菲特大大超出了他的目标，实际成绩是年化35%的收益。而在1969年，巴菲特解散了合伙投资企业。令人不解的是，这么好的业绩，应该大力募资才对，为什么要解散合伙投资企业呢？巴菲特说：“我知道在一个我认为自己不能做得很好，或者我不得不去做好的环境里，我是不想去管理其他人的钱的。”1969年的确是一个疯狂的市场，而巴菲特并不愿意改变他内心中的投资法则。在解散合伙投资企业后，他把全部精力放在了看似投资“失败”的纺织企业伯克希尔·哈撒韦上。伯克希尔与普通的基金公司有什么区别？伯克希尔本质上是一家资本控股公司，管理的是自己的钱，而普通基金公司管理的资金大部分是投资人的钱。这使得伯克希尔对于资金的看法与普通基金公司有本质的不同——伯克希尔把自己的资金，看作是资本。根据《西方经济学基础》，“资本是生产资料的一部分，是企业为购置从事生产经营活动所需的资产的资产来源，它是投资者对企业的投资，出现在资产负债表的右侧。资本的本质是获得利润。”有一个简单的公式，如果不考虑资本的成本的话：长期资本价值=资本投资*（1+资本回报率）^时间伯克希尔在管理自己的资本的时候，相比其它的资产管理公司，没有资金赎回风险，而且可以永续经营，公司赚的是资本循环增值的价值。而资产管理公司的资金，可能会由于市场的波动，投资者赎回，或者基金到期，无法长期经营管理。对于两种模式，资本市场也会给出不同的市值，贝莱德管理近10万亿美元规模的资产，市值为1123亿，而伯克希尔管理1万亿美元的资产，市值为7616亿美元。所以，基金公司属于资产管理公司，核心是短期的投资价值；而伯克希尔是资本控股公司，追求长期资本价值。作为大股东的巴菲特，更应该称他为资本家，而不是仅仅是投资专家。3、伯克希尔·哈撒韦击穿了什么？伯克希尔在资本管理领域击穿了什么，使得它能够如此不同？既然是资本管理，我们回到马克思的《资本论》，看看资本的本质是什么？根据马克思的《资本论》：“资本的本质特征之一是资本的运动性。资本之所以能够增值，能带来剩余价值，关键是它处在无休止的运动中，不断地从流通领域进入到生产领域，再由生产领域进入到流通领域，资本这种不间断的运动是资本取得价值的增值的必要前提和条件，一旦停止运动，资本就不能增值。”让资本增值最重要的事情是提升资本运动效率，资本运动效率越高，资本增值越快。马克思也提到：“剩余价值转化为利润，以剩余价值率转化为利润率为前提，即借助于利润率，才把已转化为成本价格超过额的剩余价值，进一步转化为预付总资本在一定周转期间内超过它自身价值的余额。总之，剩余价值是内在的本质或实体，而利润则是外在的现象或形式。”那么根据马克思的理论，高净利润率的公司一定就是好公司吗？巴菲特曾说过：“投资有三件最重要的事，第一是保住本金，第二是保住本金，第三是时刻牢记前两条。”再来看看巴菲特的第一个老师本杰明·格雷厄姆怎么说——“投资是经过分析，可以承诺本金安全，并提供满意回报的行为。不能满足这些要求的就是投机。”并且他提到了“安全边际”这个重要的词：“人们愿意为股票付出任何价格，根本不考虑进行数量分析，市场乐观标出的任何价格好像都是物有所值的。在这疯狂之巅，投资与投机的界限模糊了。要以安全边际的方法去挑选股票。”再根据一个简单的数学等式：安全边际=企业价值-企业价格，可知企业价格可以在市场上找到，那么如何正确地评估企业价值就成为重中之重。这时得到了一个我们非常熟悉的词汇——价值投资，是对企业的真实价值进行有效评估。巴菲特对企业进行估值并进行投资有12条原则。企业三原则的核心是，让企业价值判断变得简单，不熟不投，他说：“我不会挑战高难度的动作，就像运动会跨栏，有1英尺的杆，我绝不会选择7英尺。”管理三原则的核心是，巴菲特希望能够找到和他一样的管理者，能够有效配置公司资本，真正为股东的利益负责。财务四原则的核心是，如何找到正确反映企业运营能力的指标和指标组，计算真正的“股东盈余”，而且找到高利润率的企业。市场二原则的核心是，用未来现金流的折算，确定企业的市场价值，再根据安全边际，相对于企业的市场价值，能否以折扣价进行购买。我去查询了几家巴菲特持有多年的企业，如华盛顿邮报、可口可乐、盖可保险、大都会等企业，即便不是12条原则全部应用，但大部分是符合的。所以，在第二个问题“伯克希尔击穿了什么”中，答案是有安全边际的企业价值。4、伯克希尔·哈撒韦的迭代反馈是什么？作为多元控股型企业，伯克希尔管理近万亿美元的资产，其中非上市部分，绝大部分企业为全资拥有或可合并报表，而上市部分，持股比例也多为相对大股东或有董事会席位。伯克希尔的各个子公司产生大量现金流，提供给奥马哈总部。这些现金来源于巨大保险业务的浮存金，及全资拥有的非金融子公司的运营盈利。伯克希尔将这些现金作为资本要素进行再投资，投资于那些能产生更多现金的机会。每个子公司都有富有才华的管理团队负责日常工作，这样巴菲特可以集中100%的精力，专注于资本高效配置。巴菲特如何做好资本高效配置？John Whitmore有这样一个效能公式：p=P-i，这里第一个p是performance，效能的意思，第二个P是Potential，潜力的意思，i是interference，干扰的意思。人的潜能大多数是一样的，但干扰值区别很大。我们的效能低，不是因为潜能低，而是因为干扰太大了。那么，巴菲特是如何降低干扰的呢？奥马哈的极简生活首先巴菲特既不住在东部的纽约，也不住在西部的洛杉矶，而是中部内布拉斯加州的奥马哈。他的办公室是用了60年的办公楼，只租了半层；住的房子是60年前用5万美元买的房子。每天安静地在办公室里看年报打电话，成了巴菲特一生的习惯。减少决策次数的集中性投资以马柯维茨现代资产组合理论、尤金·法玛的有效市场假说及夏普的资本定价模型为基础，大多数资产管理人会把波动性看作资本市场的最大风险，所以分散、非相关性是控制风险最重要的思路。举个例子，挖水池是选择1千米宽的切口，打1米深。而巴菲特认为最大的风险是企业内在价值的丧失，如果价值没有了，安全边际就没有了，股票就应该卖出。选择优秀的价值企业，能透彻分析的企业个数一定不多。所以，巴菲特挖水池是选择1米宽的切口 ，打1千米深。巴菲特在集中与分散中，选择了不可思议的集中性持股，减少决策的次数，减少犯错的次数。巴菲特的交易是为了不交易，找到好企业而一直持有，这是一件“难而正确的事情”。数学概率论作为基础谈及决策，巴菲特说：“我们所要做的全部就是，将盈利概率乘上可能盈利的数量，减去亏损的概率乘上可能亏损的数量。”1654年，布莱斯·帕斯卡和皮埃尔·德·费马相互之间的一些信件往来奠定了概率论的基础，费马用的是代数方法，帕斯卡用的是几何方法。帕斯卡和费马的工作标志着决策理论的开始，决策理论就是当你不确定将要发生什么时，决定做什么的过程。而拜尔分析法提供了一个数学程序，根据新获得的信息，调整我们原有的预期，以改变相应的机率。大学里使用拜尔分析法帮助学生学习决策，在课堂上，被称为决策树理论。芒格说：“在哈佛商学院，第一年所学的全部，综合在一起实际上就是决策树理论。香农在1948年《通信的数学理论》中创造性地采用概率论的方法来研究通信中的问题。在香农信息理论的基础上，数学家凯利建立了优化公式。1956年，凯利写了《信息速率的新解读》，提出优化成长策略：如果你知道你成功的概率，你就知道配置多少的比例。公式是：2p-1=X，如果赢的概率是55%，那么2*55%-1=10%，此时应配置10%的比例；如果赢的概率是75%，那么275%-1=50%，此时应配置50%的比例。而巴菲特在应用凯利优化公式时，往往非常谨慎，当结果是20%配置比例的时候，他会在此基础上适当降低比例，通常是原数值的1/2或1/3。所以从概率论来看巴菲特的投资决策流程，如下图：屏蔽市场先生的报价影响看下图这样一个股票，可能你会觉得波动性太大了。但看这支股票，你会觉得越早上车越好。但这两张图其实是同一支股票，大名鼎鼎的苹果公司，仅是观察股价的时间频度不一样。巴菲特说：“投资就像打棒球一样，想要得分大家必须把注意力集中在场上，而不是紧盯着计分板。”当市场价格上下波动的时候，巴菲特所显现出来的淡定是自然的——他的内心是以企业内在价值不丧失作为风险控制标准的，而不是股价。巴菲特有句被说烂了的名言：“在别人恐惧的时候，我贪婪，别人贪婪的时候，我恐惧。”巴菲特笃定的是价值，而别人恐惧和贪婪的是股价。市场下跌的时候，反而是最大的买入机会，因为安全边际更大了。行为金融学的结论2011年，诺贝尔奖获得者丹尼尔·卡尼曼的《思考，快与慢》，将认知过程分为两个思维模式：直觉和理性，也就是系统1与系统2。系统1的决策多是机械的、快速的、未经大脑深思熟虑的；系统2的决策是经过认真思考的、经过推敲的、要求专注的。巴菲特无论是对自己，还是被投企业的管理层，要求最严格的，就是理性，特别是体现在资本高效配置方面的理性。巴菲特说：“我们的工作就是挑选出那些优秀的企业，它们每保留的一美元最终都会创造出超过一美元的资本价值。”当投资的资本反复运动，带来资本价值的时候，就完成了这个简单而神奇的公式：长期资本价值=资本投资*（1+资本回报率）^时间。简单的事情，因影响其结果的变量少，往往是风险最小的事情，也是最持久的事情。整体看伯克希尔的”一思维“框架图，击穿点中的依据价值而进行投资，与巴菲特自己管理的伯克希尔有非常强的同构性。巴菲特按照自己的样子，筛选投资企业。这样就产生了多个伯克希尔分形，不断同频共振，提升了伯克希尔的整体资本价值。但面对这个简单而神奇的公式：长期资本价值=资本投资*（1+资本回报率）^时间，永远要问自己：是真的吗？永远是真的吗？有没有例外？5、伯克希尔·哈撒韦的公理化思维是什么？1776年，亚当·斯密在《国富论》中有一段精妙的描述：“我们每天所需的食物和饮料，不是出自屠户、酿酒商或面包师的恩惠，而是出于他们自利的打算。每个使用资本和劳动的个人，既不打算促进公共利益，也不知道他自己是在什么程度上促进那种利益。他受一只看不见的手的指导，去尽力达到一个并非他本意想要达到的目的。通过追逐自己的利益，他经常促进了社会的利益。”60年美国市场经济和资本市场波澜壮阔的发展，造就了巴菲特财富的大环境。那么拥有巨额财富的巴菲特，是如何面对的呢？巴菲特说：“无论何时，当我跟苏珊说我们会发财时，她从未表现得多么兴奋，要么毫不在意，要么是不予相信。当我们真的积累了巨额财富，在处置这笔财富的态度上我们相当默契，那就是将它们回馈给社会。”“我和苏珊从未觉得我们应该把这么多钱留给子女，我们的孩子都很出色。然而我要申明的一点是，在成长经历以及得到的教育机会，他们已经占尽了优势；因此，再赋予他们无数金钱既不正确，也不理智。”“实际上，在崇尚精英的社会里，他们已经拥有了压倒性的领先优势。世代相承的巨额财富，将会进一步加剧我们本应努力维护的社会公平。”2006年6月26日的纽约公共图书馆，巴菲特拿出五个信封，每一个信封里都装着一份他财富的分配安排，只等着他的签名即可生效。前三个信封很简单，他签名“爸爸”，然后分别给了三个子女：女儿苏茜、长子霍华德、次子彼得。第四封信交给已故妻子所捐的慈善基金会的代表。这四封信给出的财富总计金额为60亿美元。巴菲特签好第五封信后，交给了当时比尔·盖茨的妻子梅琳达。这封信中，巴菲特将他拥有的伯克希尔的股票，当时共计300亿美元的财富捐给了世界上最大的慈善机构，比尔&梅琳达·盖茨基金。巴菲特说：“他们可以更有效率地使用金钱，找到那个按照你的想法做事，而且做得更好的人，将事情委托给他们难道不更符合逻辑吗？”这就是典型的巴菲特，总是充满理性。所以，在《新教伦理与资本主义精神》中，马克思·韦伯说：“所谓的资本主义精神，是指个人把努力增加自己的资本并以此为目的活动视为一种尽责尽职的行动，把赚钱本身当作一种目的、一种职业责任、一种美德和能力的表现。”“这种现代理性资本主义的经济行为，与新教徒那种井井有条、系统安排的人世禁欲主义生活方式是完全相一致的。新教禁欲主义伦理为资本主义企业家提供了一种心理驱动力和道德能量。”--《新教伦理与资本主义精神》作者：马克思·韦伯资本主义精神，也就是清教徒精神，把获得财富当作是荣耀上帝的道路，也把分享财富当作是替上帝做的工作。这样，伯克希尔的“一思维”框架图就完整了。伯克希尔的价值主张是一家资本控股公司，追求长期资本价值。击穿点是价值投资，提高资本运动效率。迭代是资本有效配置资产，反馈是资产带来资本增值。支撑这个“一思维”模型的公理化思维是《国富论》为基石的政治经济学和数学，同时清教徒精神成为了拥有财富时内心笃定的思想来源。6、为什么要讲伯克希尔·哈撒韦和巴菲特？有人会问，伯克希尔和巴菲特可以复制吗？答案是NO。20世纪的美国、“为股东利益服务”的企业价值观、丰厚的保险浮存金、非对冲基金机制、危机时刻与美联储的互动资源，都是非一般资产管理人或资本家所拥有的机遇。那为什么要讲伯克希尔和巴菲特？乔治·约翰逊在《心中的火焰》中说，“在现实和虚幻之间，每个人的内心深处都想发现一种模式，以整合无序的世界。”每个人都在寻找自己内心世界中的一种模式，但太多的信息干扰和内心中的紊乱让很多人找不到那条归路。巴菲特说：“我们的态度就是，让我们的个性与我们希望的生活方式相一致。”他在击穿价值投资的时候，就在击穿他自己的生活和管理方式，也就是他的生命。我们要学习的就是这种精神，以追求商业价值为目标，自己生活节俭，追求品质但不浪费，最终将财富回馈于社会。巴菲特如此，伯克希尔如此，所有投资的企业也是如此。所以，2015年我在巴菲特股东大会上，通过幸运抽签，有机会向巴菲特提问：“已经管理了那么多年的伯克希尔，为什么还这么笃定、有激情？”他回答：“我拥有我想要的生活，我热爱每一天。我的意思是，我每天都跳着踢踏舞去上班，每天喝六罐可乐，与那些我喜欢的人一起工作。这世界上没有什么比得上我在伯克希尔工作更有乐趣，很幸运我在这里。”结语我最喜欢的一本书《人类群星闪耀时》说：“一个人生命中的最大幸运，莫过于在他的人生中途，即在他年富力强时发现了自己的人生使命。”可能巴菲特不是在中年，而是在少年时就已经发现了自己的人生使命。这种人和事业合在一起完成使命召唤的能量之大，人事合一的幸福感之强，这种对人、对事、对社会之爱，才是我们要学习的，也是巴菲特内心中真正的笃定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018426639,"gmtCreate":1649081172490,"gmtModify":1676534446881,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018426639","repostId":"1165926470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165926470","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649079344,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165926470?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-04 21:35","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Jumia rises more than 13%, announces partnership with UPS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165926470","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月4日，非洲电商平台Jumia涨超13%，今天宣布与联合包裹建立合作伙伴关系。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 4, African E-commerce Platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">Jumia</a>rose more than 13%, and today announced that it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Establish partnerships.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1060b52b4193b9f087bee6f292bcd880\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-04 21:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 4, African E-commerce Platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">Jumia</a>rose more than 13%, and today announced that it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">United Parcel</a>Establish partnerships.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1060b52b4193b9f087bee6f292bcd880\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4131":"航空货运与物流","UPS":"联合包裹","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","JMIA":"Jumia Technologies AG","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165926470","content_text":"4月4日，非洲电商平台Jumia涨超13%，今天宣布与联合包裹建立合作伙伴关系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UPS":0.9,"JMIA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887508863,"gmtCreate":1632057950752,"gmtModify":1676530693755,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887508863","repostId":"2168037685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168037685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632045566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168037685?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-19 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US officials believe Tesla's autonomous driving terminology is \"misleading and irresponsible\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168037685","media":"汇通网","summary":"特斯拉的行为显然误导了许多人误用和滥用该项技术。","content":"<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>As a major upgrade to Fully Self-Driving (FSD) software is being prepared, the head of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said the move may be premature.</p><p>NTSB Chairman Jennifer Homendy said,<b>Tesla's use of the term 'fully autonomous driving' is 'misleading and irresponsible'</b>Because people pay more attention to marketing than to warnings on car manuals or company websites. She added,<b>Tesla's behavior has clearly misled many people to misuse and abuse the technology, and Tesla should not move forward with this upgrade until this security flaw is addressed.</b></p><p>Musk said last week that FSD Beta v10.0.1 would be available on a large scale starting Sept. 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3124db31c9b33e3f3404d3603b1baf2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"HTW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US officials believe Tesla's autonomous driving terminology is \"misleading and irresponsible\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS officials believe Tesla's autonomous driving terminology is \"misleading and irresponsible\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">汇通网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-19 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>As a major upgrade to Fully Self-Driving (FSD) software is being prepared, the head of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said the move may be premature.</p><p>NTSB Chairman Jennifer Homendy said,<b>Tesla's use of the term 'fully autonomous driving' is 'misleading and irresponsible'</b>Because people pay more attention to marketing than to warnings on car manuals or company websites. She added,<b>Tesla's behavior has clearly misled many people to misuse and abuse the technology, and Tesla should not move forward with this upgrade until this security flaw is addressed.</b></p><p>Musk said last week that FSD Beta v10.0.1 would be available on a large scale starting Sept. 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3124db31c9b33e3f3404d3603b1baf2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx678.com/C/20210919/202109191759262286.html\">汇通网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4edcd70007a48ee832e76f61e110854","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fx678.com/C/20210919/202109191759262286.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168037685","content_text":"在特斯拉正准备对全自动驾驶（FSD）软件进行重大升级之际， 美国国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）负责人表示此举可能为时过早。\nNTSB主席Jennifer Homendy称，特斯拉使用“全自动驾驶”一词是“误导和不负责任的”，因人们更关注营销，而不是汽车使用手册或公司网站上的警告。她补充说，特斯拉的行为显然误导了许多人误用和滥用该项技术，在解决该安全缺陷之前，特斯拉不应该推进本次升级。\n马斯克上周曾表示，将于9月24日开始大面积提供FSD Beta v10.0.1。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888120105,"gmtCreate":1631458836307,"gmtModify":1676530551172,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888120105","repostId":"1107402961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107402961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631432462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107402961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 15:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TAL loses \"good future\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107402961","media":"子弹财经","summary":"双减之下，于好未来而言，转型只是一个开始，未来的挑战注定异常艰巨。\n\n教育巨头好未来又官宣了一个重磅消息。\n8月27日，好未来发公告称，公司已与持有者达成协议，回购现有的2026年到期的0.5%可转换","content":"<p><div>Under the double reduction, for TAL, the transformation is only the beginning, and the challenges ahead are bound to be extremely arduous. Education giant TAL officially announced another blockbuster news. On August 27, TAL announced that the company had reached an agreement with the holders to repurchase the existing 0.5% convertible bonds due 2026. The total purchase price of this repurchase consists of the total principal amount of convertible bonds of US$2.3 billion (equivalent to approximately RMB15 billion), and accrued and unpaid interest calculated at 0.5% per annum. The repurchase will be completed by one or more closings by the end of December 2021. According to \"...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zdcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TAL loses \"good future\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTAL loses \"good future\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">子弹财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Under the double reduction, for TAL, the transformation is only the beginning, and the challenges ahead are bound to be extremely arduous. Education giant TAL officially announced another blockbuster news. On August 27, TAL announced that the company had reached an agreement with the holders to repurchase the existing 0.5% convertible bonds due 2026. The total purchase price of this repurchase consists of the total principal amount of convertible bonds of US$2.3 billion (equivalent to approximately RMB15 billion), and accrued and unpaid interest calculated at 0.5% per annum. The repurchase will be completed by one or more closings by the end of December 2021. According to \"...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA\">子弹财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bf3ae97e487b25c199236ac21d2cdfc","relate_stocks":{"TAL":"好未来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5GlW-Lfk5yzXvvXrdPrIQA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107402961","content_text":"双减之下，于好未来而言，转型只是一个开始，未来的挑战注定异常艰巨。\n\n教育巨头好未来又官宣了一个重磅消息。\n8月27日，好未来发公告称，公司已与持有者达成协议，回购现有的2026年到期的0.5%可转换债券。此次回购的总购买价格由可转债的本金总额23亿美元（折合人民币约150亿元），以及根据0.5%年利率计算的应计和未付利息两部分组成。此次回购将在2021年12月底前通过一次或多次交割完成。\n据「子弹财经」了解，好未来拟回购的可转债于去年12月由银湖资本领投，若可转债到期并成功转换为股份，将占好未来已发行股份的4.3%。\n消息一出，迅速引发行业热议。有人认为，好未来此举展现了自身的财务实力；也有人认为，“提前回购可转债”恰恰表明了投资人对长期持有好未来股票的信心不足。\n某种程度上来说，当前的好未来要比“双减”新政出台前的任何时候都需要钱。毕竟，其痛失K12教培这一支柱型业务后，难在短期内找到“替补”。\n更重要的是，好未来正处业务转型之际，众多家长和成人用户对其新产品并不买账，加之转型路上潜在的种种挑战，公司显然需要预留出更多“保命钱”。\n而此番提前回购可转债无疑会给好未来的业务转型蒙上一层阴影。\n1、全速转型素质教育\n好未来的前身是学而思，公司在2003年开创了课外辅导品牌，很早便开始探索在线教育模式。好未来一度是在线教育领域当之无愧的领头企业，但今年以来，和其他教育公司一样，它也没逃过这场监管风暴。\n尤其是在“双减”政策后，一个更为直观的感受是，好未来在积极转型求生，且动作不可谓不频繁。\n为争夺学生课外时间，好未来入局课后托管市场。7月13日，好未来上线托管品牌“彼芯”，“彼芯”以开设线下课后成长中心为主要业务模式，面向小学生提供放学接送、餐食、课内作业、自主提升等服务，服务时间为周一到周五的15:30-20:00，旨在培养学生的学习习惯体系。\n除了瞄准课后托管，好未来也重押素质教育。据「子弹财经」了解，该公司先是将旗下品牌直接转为素质教育品牌并上线新产品。\n6月24日，好未来旗下少儿英语品牌“励步英语”正式更名为“励步”，并推出线下学习空间——励步儿童成长中心，以及系列素质教育新产品，包括英文戏剧、口才、美育、书法、益智、棋道等。\n8月11日，励步正式发布五类素质教育产品，分别为戏剧、美育、益智、口才、读物产品，并宣布线下学习空间励步儿童成长中心将正式落成。\n仅时隔两周，励步又在北京举办“素质产品开放日”，戏剧、美育、益智、口才等素质教育全新产品体系首次线下集体亮相。\n好未来再以旗下品牌名义推出新素质教育品牌。\n9月1日，好未来旗下学而思培优宣布正式推出素质教育品牌——学而思素养中心，据悉，学而思素养中心的素养产品内容涵盖科学、编程、益智、故事、口才、传统文化、美育、围棋等模块。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n当然，好未来还在发力成人教育。\n7月7日，好未来正式对外披露成人教育品牌“轻舟”。目前，轻舟旗下拥有轻舟考研帮、轻舟考满分和轻舟留学三个子品牌，覆盖考研、语培、留学等三个领域。\n从产品更新到推出新品牌，对于素质教育这艘船，好未来已经准备好全速起航。\n关于转型素质教育的相关计划及未来可能面临的挑战，好未来方面暂未回复。\n2、不买账的用户和资本\n然而，对于上述好未来一次次的转型动作，家长和成人用户似乎并不十分买账。\n“很多好未来K12学员家长对它开展课后托管服务并不买单。”北京小学生家长顾婷（化名）向「子弹财经」表示，以前，很多家长周中给孩子报名托管班是因为自己下班接孩子的时间与孩子放学时间无法很好衔接。现在，学校提供了课后托管服务，部分家长下班后刚好能接送孩子。另外，很多家里有老人接送孩子的，也根本不用报托管班。\n至于好未来转战素质教育领域，仅有部分家长愿意继续支持并购买所需素养类产品。\n“目前我所接触的好未来家长中，只有小部分家长基于对他家品牌和质量的信任，愿意继续接受他家推出的素质教育课程。”上海小学生家长叶松（化名）对「子弹财经」说道。\n而大部分好未来K12学员家长可能更倾向于“逃离”。叶松表示，好未来在美术、编程、口才等素质教育领域尚未形成较强的品牌知名度和用户认可度。所以，很多家长在选报某一素质教育课程时，会更倾向于那些对应领域的全国或区域性知名素质教育品牌。\n“我给我孩子报名美术培训班，选择的是一家专业美术画室，老师都是长年教孩子画画的。比那些K12转型过来的机构要专业很多倍。”顾婷坦言，好未来的学科培训确实做得不错，但素质教育“差点意思”。“他家（好未来）转型做素质教育，很多家长不买单是正常的。”\n她还提到，不同于K12教育，素质教育需要十分专业且有经验的师资。“否则，会浪费孩子的宝贵时间。”\n不仅如此，好未来加码成人教育这一举动，也很难激起多数成人用户报名其课程的兴趣。毕竟，考研、语培、留学等各自领域格局已基本形成，好未来尚未在这些领域建立起品牌影响力和市场竞争优势。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n事实上，对于好未来转型动作不买账的不止家长和成人用户，还有资本市场。\n「子弹财经」注意到，7月26日（“双减”政策落地后的第一个交易日），好未来市值一直徘徊在28亿美元至42亿美元之间。截至美东时间9月10日收盘，好未来股价报4.96美元/股，较上一个交易日大跌8.15%，较今年2月初的高位90.96美元跌去94.55%，市值仅剩31.99亿美元，折合206亿元人民币。很明显，资本市场仍弥漫着对好未来业务层面的担忧情绪。\n此次好未来回购可转债也正是当资本投下不信任票后稳定股价的自救之举。\n一般而言，上市企业提前赎回可转债大多是为了加速可转债持有人转股，而转股后就相当于企业增发了新股，既实现了股权融资，也变相稀释了股权，提高了公司市盈率。\n但好未来能否在短期内挽回资本信心并消除其担忧，仍然是个未知数。\n3、转型之战不好打\n抛开家长、成人用户和资本对“新”好未来的接纳程度，好未来业务转型也并非想象中那般简单。\n“课后托管服务本身就不怎么赚钱。”长期从事教培行业的李良（化名）向「子弹财经」表示，课后托管主要是帮家长完成孩子放学接送工作，并为孩子提供餐食、课内作业等服务。“它属于基础性服务，不需要太高技术含量。”所以，机构一般很难向家长收取高额服务费。\n而今，学生的校外时间还被进一步挤压。\n据「子弹财经」了解，在7月13日召开的新闻通气会上，教育部基础教育司司长吕玉刚指出，课后服务将在今年秋季开学后实现义务教育学校全覆盖，并努力实现有需要的学生全覆盖。\n此外，他还提到，课后服务推行“5+2”模式，即学校每周5天都要开展课后服务，每天至少开展2小时，结束时间要与当地正常下班时间相衔接。\n显然，如何抢夺学生有限校外时间则成为好未来开展托管服务亟待解决的一道难题。\n除了课后托管业务，好未来的素质教育业务同样在遭遇难关。\n首先，好未来们该以怎样的品类组合攻占各地市场？据李良介绍，不同地方不同用户的需求也不尽相同，机构需要思考的是用哪些素质教育品类能够满足他们的诉求。“每个城市开设的品类都相同，还是每个城市开设的品类都不一样呢？”他说。\n其次，如何在多品类的投入成本和用户群体对不同品类的需求之间寻得平衡，也成为好未来们待逾越的又一座大山。\n因为家长在给孩子购买素质教育课程时有诸多选择，他一般会优先考虑孩子感兴趣或适合的品类，比如画画、围棋等。“这样的话，每个家长选择的类目就不太一样。”李良说。\n李良分析称，如果机构在一个地方开设的品类不够充分，供家长可选择的少，这意味着其将错失一部分目标用户。而如果机构在一个地方开设的品类过多，难免会导致自身成本的大幅提升。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n此外，横亘在好未来们面前的另一个挑战是，如何让K12学员家长在素质教育品类上花更多钱。\n毕竟，素质教育需求不够刚性，机构难以让用户在素质教育课程购买上花更多的钱。“如果素养课客单价定得高一些，一二线城市家长或许愿意买单，但三四线及以下城市家长很可能就承受不住。”李良坦陈道。\n资深教育投资人徐华也认为好未来转战素质教育领域并非易事。他向「子弹财经」表示，素质教育与学科教育有着本质的区别。\n虽说企业在服务用户上几乎重合，以及在拉新和转化方式方面有一定的相似之处。但在业务线规划、教材编写、课程开发等方面，二者重叠之处并不多。“所以，对好未来这类学科教育机构来说，转型素质教育更多意味着要重新开始。”徐华说。\n由于素质教育品类繁多，不妨就拿少儿编程来举例。\n根据「创业最前线」此前在《独家|好未来领投1.2亿元的傲梦爆雷，少儿编程还有好未来吗?》一文中所述，时下少儿编程行业正面临六大挑战：如何提升家长认知度和接受度、抢占学生更多校外时间、留住用户、补足师资短板、向资本市场讲好新故事以及合规运营问题。\n以家长认知度和接受度提升为例，如大家所知，少儿编程市场渗透率极低，尚不足1%，加之少儿编程机构的受众也都是学科类培训机构的用户群体，在校外时间相对有限的情况下，家长们势必会为自己的孩子优先选择学科培训。\n一个基本事实是，“双减”政策落地之前，“编程被纳入学科范畴”被外界普遍认为是少儿编程玩家们最大的机会。但从目前来看，编程转为学科又是最大的风险。一时间，少儿编程行业陷入尴尬境地。\n而其他的素质教育品类也几乎和编程一样面临着相同的难题。\n4、尴尬的成人教育\n比起入局课后托管和重押素质教育的难，好未来发力成人教育也并不轻松。\n仅拿续费率来说，成人教育续费率远低于K12教育。“像参加考研等考试类培训，无论最终是否通过考试，学生通常都不会再续费。超低的续费率，就意味着机构需要不断地获取新用户。”徐华称。\n此外，好未来尽管早已布局成人教育领域，但从其过往财报来看，成人教育业务对公司营收的贡献占比一直不足10%。“他家一直想做好面向18岁以上人群的教育业务，但终究还是没能啃下这块硬骨头。如今内忧外患之下，想在成人教育领域有所突破显然更难。”李良直言。\n需要特别指出的是，企业无论往哪个方向转型，都离不开资金的支持。\n而对于好未来来说，几乎完全失去K12学科培训这一支柱性业务，意味着其造血能力将大幅减弱，在收入可能受到影响的情况下，公司每天的支出也是一笔不小的数目。\n如今，好未来还要预留出至少23亿美元，用于偿还可转换债券债务。如此一来，好未来的现金流只会更加吃紧。\n\n图 /摄图网，基于VRF协议\n当然，面对潜在的挑战，好未来也并非毫无应对之道。\n在徐华看来，一方面，好未来要继续就战略转型等事宜与股东们保持友好沟通，避免因后者挤兑甚至退股造成公司大量内耗。\n另一方面，好未来要优先满足最大规模用户年龄段相匹配的其他需求，也就是托管或素质教育。先聚焦业务，在打开一个渠道之后再复刻它，这样不仅能让管理团队和业务团队快速犯错并改正，也有利于团队成员伙伴进一步的压缩和降低劳务成本支出。\n“不能因为公司账上有些钱，就各种尝试，导致公司的资源、资金以及人力等过于分散，一旦尝试后发现没有多大起色，对公司来说无疑是得不偿失。”徐华说。\n5、结语\n相比绝大多数K12教培机构，好未来拥有不可比拟的资金实力、优厚资源和品牌优势。表面而言，好未来转型难度不会太大。\n但问题是，家长、成人用户以及资本对其新产品业务的“不买账”，外加提前回购可转债需预留资金，预示着好未来的被迫转型之路将充满荆棘和不确定性。\n双减之下，于好未来而言，转型只是一个开始，未来的挑战注定异常艰巨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067146553,"gmtCreate":1652431109072,"gmtModify":1676535099436,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067146553","repostId":"1136768096","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136768096","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652407455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136768096?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-13 10:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks open higher and move higher, Hang Seng Tech Index gains extend to 4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136768096","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月13日，港股高开高走，恒生指数涨超2%，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至4%，华虹半导体涨超10%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 13th, Hong Kong stocks opened higher, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 2%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose to 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">Huahong Semiconductor</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311121d8319c865984c3453d966f6946\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open higher and move higher, Hang Seng Tech Index gains extend to 4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open higher and move higher, Hang Seng Tech Index gains extend to 4%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-13 10:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 13th, Hong Kong stocks opened higher, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 2%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose to 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">Huahong Semiconductor</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311121d8319c865984c3453d966f6946\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136768096","content_text":"5月13日，港股高开高走，恒生指数涨超2%，恒生科技指数涨幅扩大至4%，华虹半导体涨超10%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069482984,"gmtCreate":1651334491894,"gmtModify":1676534891578,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578098715246654","idStr":"3578098715246654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069482984","repostId":"1145531422","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145531422","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651314140,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145531422?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-30 18:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Suspense of \"Big Blast of the Century\": Did Bill Hwang manipulate the stock price?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145531422","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"检察官可能仍难以证明被告操纵股价。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experts say it may be difficult for U.S. authorities to prove that the hero of the \"big explosion of the century\" manipulated the market and pushed up stock prices.</p><p>U.S. authorities had spent months gathering evidence to back up their allegations before Wednesday's arrests of Bill Hwang and Patrick Halligan, the former chief financial officer of Archegos, by federal police. The alleged charges were that they plotted to manipulate the stock prices of listed companies in order to boost earnings, causing a huge shock in the US stock market.</p><p>The Archgos liquidation cost Wall Street's top investment banks billions of dollars and wiped more than $100 billion off the valuations of nearly a dozen companies.<b>But legal experts say prosecutors may still struggle to prove that the defendants manipulated the stock price.</b>This requires convincing the jury that Bill Hwang's artificial inflation of stock prices has imbalanced the normal supply and demand relationship in the securities market.</p><p>Bill Hwang's lawyers maintain that his client was \"totally free of any wrongdoing\" and that the allegations are exaggerated. He is innocent and will be proven innocent.</p><p>Can stock price manipulation constitute a criminal case?</p><p>The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said in the indictment:</p><p>The two and others at the company made \"materially false and misleading statements\" to the big bank that arranged the derivatives transaction. None of these transactions are based on principled behavior towards the true value of a particular issuer, but rather intentionally and artificially inflate the share price. Experts said,<b>These purchases alone do not necessarily constitute illegal activity</b>, which could make Bill Hwang's claims of market manipulation difficult to prove.</p><p>A senior crime lawyer asked:</p><p><b>If its purpose is merely to drive stock prices, can this constitute a criminal case?</b>This is a very delicate and complex issue, and this case is an excellent case for us to think about it. Market manipulation is one of 11 criminal charges brought against Bill Hwang by U.S. prosecutors. He has also been charged with racketeering and fraud. His deputy, former CFO Patrick Halligan, was also arrested and charged, but not in connection with market manipulation. Both pleaded not guilty.</p><p>Charges of market manipulation typically appear in civil cases brought by agencies such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Compared to criminal proceedings, the burden of proof in civil cases is lighter.<b>But even then, lawyers struggle to make the allegations stand.</b></p><p>A case involving popular Wall Street trader John Mulheren 30 years ago is seen as a rare criminal case of stock manipulation. His charges were ultimately overturned on the grounds that the jury's decision was based on speculation and there was insufficient evidence.</p><p>James Cox, a professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University, said the Mulheron case, according to the Financial Times<b>'Illustrates greatly the problems with the rigging charges'</b>。</p><p>The SEC also accused Bill Hwang of ignoring his research analysts by ordering Archegos to trade before the market opened or in the last 30 minutes of the trading day to maximize market impact.</p><p>The case of manipulating the target of listed enterprise giants is more confusing</p><p>Cox denotes,<b>This is a \"gut check moment\" for U.S. authorities, and the case will not be assured because of the \"enormous challenges\" in distilling the vast amount of evidence and transactional data into a form that jurors can understand.</b></p><p>He added that as Archegos' capital ballooned from $1.5 billion in March 2020 to $35 billion a year later,<b>The alleged manipulation involves corporate giants listed on America's largest exchanges, rather than other more typical smaller companies, so the case will be more complicated.</b></p><p>Bill Hwang is reportedly suspected of manipulating company stocks including U.S. media Companies ViacomCBS, Discovery Communications Inc, Texas Capital Bancshares, Rocket Companies and others,<b>There are also Chinese stocks such as Tencent Music and iQiyi.</b></p><p>However, Cox also added: \"Although the target of the manipulation is unusual, the volume of traders is also very unusual. In some ways, this unusual situation may help the government.\"</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Jacob Frenkel, a partner at Dickinson Wright, said:</p><p>The burden of proof falls squarely on the government. But prosecutors typically don't file charges unless they expect a big win based on the evidence. The scale of the liquidation and the description of its conduct suggest that it will be an uphill battle for the defendant. The U.S. prosecution has also been co-operated by Archegos' director of risk management and chief trader, who have pleaded guilty.<b>If the case reaches trial, their potential testimony could be critical to the outcome of the proceedings. They are accused of lying to banks along with Hwang and Halligan to get billions of dollars used to inflate the company's stock price.</b></p><p><b>Instead of delving into complex financial transactions to win over the jury, prosecutors will likely focus on the huge lies the defendants weave at trial. But court observers said that top investment banks were \"unwelcome\" victims in the eyes of jurors, and it was difficult to draw sympathy.</b></p><p>This could also explain why the prosecution did not charge the defendant with fraud against the bank, Frenkel noted. He added:<b>\"The government's failure to charge bank fraud can, in turn, undermine the defendant's excuse to exonerate himself – that the bank is some form of its accomplice.\"</b></p><p>The prosecution said the defendants made false statements about banks and brokerage firms, constituting racketeering. This came as a surprise to legal experts, as the charge usually targets organized crime.</p><p>John Coffee, a professor at Columbia University Law School, said the severe forfeiture penalties associated with U.S. racketeering charges may be the top reason authorities included the charge.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suspense of \"Big Blast of the Century\": Did Bill Hwang manipulate the stock price?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuspense of \"Big Blast of the Century\": Did Bill Hwang manipulate the stock price?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-30 18:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experts say it may be difficult for U.S. authorities to prove that the hero of the \"big explosion of the century\" manipulated the market and pushed up stock prices.</p><p>U.S. authorities had spent months gathering evidence to back up their allegations before Wednesday's arrests of Bill Hwang and Patrick Halligan, the former chief financial officer of Archegos, by federal police. The alleged charges were that they plotted to manipulate the stock prices of listed companies in order to boost earnings, causing a huge shock in the US stock market.</p><p>The Archgos liquidation cost Wall Street's top investment banks billions of dollars and wiped more than $100 billion off the valuations of nearly a dozen companies.<b>But legal experts say prosecutors may still struggle to prove that the defendants manipulated the stock price.</b>This requires convincing the jury that Bill Hwang's artificial inflation of stock prices has imbalanced the normal supply and demand relationship in the securities market.</p><p>Bill Hwang's lawyers maintain that his client was \"totally free of any wrongdoing\" and that the allegations are exaggerated. He is innocent and will be proven innocent.</p><p>Can stock price manipulation constitute a criminal case?</p><p>The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said in the indictment:</p><p>The two and others at the company made \"materially false and misleading statements\" to the big bank that arranged the derivatives transaction. None of these transactions are based on principled behavior towards the true value of a particular issuer, but rather intentionally and artificially inflate the share price. Experts said,<b>These purchases alone do not necessarily constitute illegal activity</b>, which could make Bill Hwang's claims of market manipulation difficult to prove.</p><p>A senior crime lawyer asked:</p><p><b>If its purpose is merely to drive stock prices, can this constitute a criminal case?</b>This is a very delicate and complex issue, and this case is an excellent case for us to think about it. Market manipulation is one of 11 criminal charges brought against Bill Hwang by U.S. prosecutors. He has also been charged with racketeering and fraud. His deputy, former CFO Patrick Halligan, was also arrested and charged, but not in connection with market manipulation. Both pleaded not guilty.</p><p>Charges of market manipulation typically appear in civil cases brought by agencies such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Compared to criminal proceedings, the burden of proof in civil cases is lighter.<b>But even then, lawyers struggle to make the allegations stand.</b></p><p>A case involving popular Wall Street trader John Mulheren 30 years ago is seen as a rare criminal case of stock manipulation. His charges were ultimately overturned on the grounds that the jury's decision was based on speculation and there was insufficient evidence.</p><p>James Cox, a professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University, said the Mulheron case, according to the Financial Times<b>'Illustrates greatly the problems with the rigging charges'</b>。</p><p>The SEC also accused Bill Hwang of ignoring his research analysts by ordering Archegos to trade before the market opened or in the last 30 minutes of the trading day to maximize market impact.</p><p>The case of manipulating the target of listed enterprise giants is more confusing</p><p>Cox denotes,<b>This is a \"gut check moment\" for U.S. authorities, and the case will not be assured because of the \"enormous challenges\" in distilling the vast amount of evidence and transactional data into a form that jurors can understand.</b></p><p>He added that as Archegos' capital ballooned from $1.5 billion in March 2020 to $35 billion a year later,<b>The alleged manipulation involves corporate giants listed on America's largest exchanges, rather than other more typical smaller companies, so the case will be more complicated.</b></p><p>Bill Hwang is reportedly suspected of manipulating company stocks including U.S. media Companies ViacomCBS, Discovery Communications Inc, Texas Capital Bancshares, Rocket Companies and others,<b>There are also Chinese stocks such as Tencent Music and iQiyi.</b></p><p>However, Cox also added: \"Although the target of the manipulation is unusual, the volume of traders is also very unusual. In some ways, this unusual situation may help the government.\"</p><p>According to the Financial Times, Jacob Frenkel, a partner at Dickinson Wright, said:</p><p>The burden of proof falls squarely on the government. But prosecutors typically don't file charges unless they expect a big win based on the evidence. The scale of the liquidation and the description of its conduct suggest that it will be an uphill battle for the defendant. The U.S. prosecution has also been co-operated by Archegos' director of risk management and chief trader, who have pleaded guilty.<b>If the case reaches trial, their potential testimony could be critical to the outcome of the proceedings. They are accused of lying to banks along with Hwang and Halligan to get billions of dollars used to inflate the company's stock price.</b></p><p><b>Instead of delving into complex financial transactions to win over the jury, prosecutors will likely focus on the huge lies the defendants weave at trial. But court observers said that top investment banks were \"unwelcome\" victims in the eyes of jurors, and it was difficult to draw sympathy.</b></p><p>This could also explain why the prosecution did not charge the defendant with fraud against the bank, Frenkel noted. He added:<b>\"The government's failure to charge bank fraud can, in turn, undermine the defendant's excuse to exonerate himself – that the bank is some form of its accomplice.\"</b></p><p>The prosecution said the defendants made false statements about banks and brokerage firms, constituting racketeering. This came as a surprise to legal experts, as the charge usually targets organized crime.</p><p>John Coffee, a professor at Columbia University Law School, said the severe forfeiture penalties associated with U.S. racketeering charges may be the top reason authorities included the charge.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658349\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6661d0357fa5130f62970f5816d2c6b1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658349","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1145531422","content_text":"专家表示，美国当局可能很难证明，这场“世纪大爆仓”的主人公，操纵市场并推高股价。在周三 Bill Hwang 和 Archegos 的前首席财务官 Patrick Halligan 被联邦警方逮捕之前，美国当局已经花了数月时间来收集证据，支持他们的指控。指控的罪名是他们为提高收益而策划操纵上市公司股价，在美国证券市场上引起了巨震。Archgos的爆仓事件给华尔街的顶级投行们造成了数十亿美元的损失，并使近12家公司的估值蒸发了超过1000亿美元。但法律专家表示，检察官可能仍难以证明被告操纵股价。这需要说服陪审团，证明 Bill Hwang 人为抬高股价的行为，已经使证券市场正常的供求关系失衡。Bill Hwang的律师坚称，他的当事人“完全没有任何不当行为\"，这些指控是夸大其词。他是无辜的，将被证明无罪。操纵股价就能构成刑事案件吗？美国证监会（SEC）在起诉书中表示：两人和公司的其他人向安排衍生品交易的大银行做出了“重大虚假和误导性陈述”。这些交易都不是基于对特定发行者真实价值的原则性行为，而是有意人为地抬高股价。专家表示，单单是这些购买股票的行为并不一定构成非法活动，这可能会让 Bill Hwang 操纵市场的指控很难得到证明。一位资深的犯罪律师发问道：如果其目的仅仅是推动股价，这难道就能构成刑事案件吗？这是一个非常微妙和复杂的问题，本案是让我们思考这个问题的绝佳案例。市场操纵是美国检方对 Bill Hwang 提起的11项刑事指控之一。他还被指控犯有敲诈勒索罪和欺诈罪。他的副手、前首席财务官 Patrick Halligan 也被逮捕和指控，但不涉及市场操纵。两人都表示不认罪。操纵市场的指控通常出现在美国证监会（SEC）或商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）等机构提起的民事案件中。与刑事诉讼相比，民事案件的举证责任较轻。但即便如此，律师也很难使这些指控成立。30年前涉及华尔街当红交易员约翰·穆赫伦（John Mulheren）的一起案件，被视为是罕见的股票操纵刑事案例。他的罪名最终被推翻，理由是陪审团的决定是基于猜测，并且证据不足。据英国金融时报报道，杜克大学公司法和证券法教授 James Cox 表示，穆赫伦案“极大地说明了操纵指控案存在的问题”。SEC 还指控 Bill Hwang 无视他的研究分析师，下令 Archegos 在开盘前或交易日最后30分钟进行交易，以最大限度地扩大市场影响。操纵目标为上市企业巨头 案件更为扑朔迷离Cox 表示，对美国当局来说，这是一个“检查信心的时刻（gut check moment）”，这一案件不会是有把握的，因为要将大量证据和交易数据提炼成陪审员可以理解的形式，这存在着“巨大的挑战”。他补充说，由于 Archegos 公司资本从2020年3月的15亿美元膨胀到一年后的350亿美元，被指控的操纵行为涉及在美国最大交易所上市的企业巨头们，而不是其他更典型的小型公司，因此该案件将更加复杂。据报道，Bill Hwang 涉嫌操纵的公司股票包括美国媒体公司 ViacomCBS、Discovery Communications Inc、Texas Capital Bancshares、Rocket Companies等，还有腾讯音乐、爱奇艺等中概股。然而，Cox 还补充道：“尽管操纵的目标不同寻常，但交易员所做的成交量也非常不同寻常。在某些方面，这种不寻常的情况可能会帮助到政府。”据英国金融时报报道，Dickinson Wright 的合伙人 Jacob Frenkel 表示：举证责任完全落在政府头上。但检察官通常不会提出指控，除非他们根据证据预计会大获全胜。爆仓的规模和对其行为的描述表明，对被告来说，这将是一场艰苦的战斗。美国检方还得到了 Archegos 风险管理总监和首席交易员的配合，他们已经认罪。如果案件进入审判阶段，他们的潜在证词可能对诉讼的结果至关重要。他们被指控与 Hwang 和 Halligan 一起向银行撒谎，以获得用于抬高公司股价的数十亿美元。在审判中，检察官可能会将重点放在被告编织的巨大谎言上，而不是深入研究复杂的金融交易来赢得陪审团的支持。但法庭观察人士表示，在陪审员眼里，顶级投行是“不受欢迎的”受害者，很难引起大家的同情。Frenkel指出，这也可以解释为什么检方没有指控被告对银行进行欺诈。他补充说：“政府不指控银行诈骗罪，反过来可以削弱被告为自己开脱罪名的借口——即银行是其某种形式的共犯。”检方称，被告对银行和经纪公司的虚假陈述，构成了敲诈勒索罪。这令法律专家感到意外，因为这一指控通常针对有组织犯罪。哥伦比亚大学法学院教授 John Coffee 表示，与美国敲诈勒索罪名相关的严厉没收处罚，可能才是当局列入这一指控的首要原因。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}