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211013能量飞车

211013能量飞车

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-28

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-13

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After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still catch up?

211013能量飞车

2022-12-13

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-12

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-07

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Revisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!

211013能量飞车

2022-12-02

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Large Options Orders | Institutional Manipulation of Ultra-Short Options: Is AMC Cinema's Unusual Movement Signaling a Short Squeeze?

211013能量飞车

2022-11-23

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211013能量飞车

2022-11-01

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211013能量飞车

2022-08-20

$西方石油(OXY)$🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰

211013能量飞车

2022-08-14

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Last night and this morning | The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for the fourth consecutive week! Latest 13F holdings revealed

211013能量飞车

2022-08-08

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211013能量飞车

2022-08-02

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@时代之:哎！又回去了

211013能量飞车

2022-07-21

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Did you really throw it away? Munger doesn't eat BYD's "fishtail"

211013能量飞车

2022-07-20

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Soared 223% in half a year! Shorting Star Tech Stocks, This Hedge Fund Reverses Performance

211013能量飞车

2022-07-17

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Moody's economist: The United States may fall into recession because it convinces itself

211013能量飞车

2022-07-11

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211013能量飞车

2022-07-11

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Inflation is unbearable! Survey shows nearly 4.5 million British households are in "severe economic distress"

211013能量飞车

2022-07-06

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Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase loses 800 million yuan.

211013能量飞车

2022-06-20

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211013能量飞车

2022-06-17

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Before the market | "Four Witches Day" arrives! Another test for U.S. stocks tonight

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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23:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still catch up?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129031119","media":"懒猫的丰收日","summary":"大涨后，港股的估值修复行情其实已经差不多完成了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>It fell, it fell.</p><p>Monday, December 12th,<b>The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 4% and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867f9086963978402f2981d477aa9222\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The A-share market also plummeted, with the three major indices all closing down nearly 1%.</p><p>However, judging from the comments, people don't seem worried about the sudden sharp drop:<b>If you dare to fall, I dare to make up for it; if it doesn't fall, then so be it!</b></p><p>Indeed, driven by multiple positive factors, Hong Kong stocks collectively surged in November.<b>The Hang Seng Index surged 26.62%, marking its biggest monthly gain since 2000.</b></p><p>Even since its establishment in 1964, this increase ranks 8th!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16900e6b7d72b1a105d706f0af700b5c\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the gains in December are also included, the Hang Seng Index gained an astonishing 32.52%, leading major global markets.</p><p>With a single arrow piercing the clouds and thousands of troops coming to meet, and with such a surge in prices, everyone should naturally no longer despair of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, another problem arose after the surge:<b>Is it still worth chasing Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c677a3b3daf779fdd53f4c10fbb34c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01 Why did it rise?</b></p><p>Let's first talk about why Hong Kong stocks are rising, mainly for these four reasons:</p><p><b>(1) The pace of Federal Reserve rate hike has slowed down.</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market, and their rise and fall are mainly affected by the liquidity of the US dollar.</p><p>Most of the time, when the US dollar falls, Hong Kong stocks rise; When the US dollar rises, Hong Kong stocks fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927fd6994f3915fad342737337dfa553\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, during the sharp decline in recent months, Hong Kong stocks fell to a low of 14,600 points, which is 20% lower than the low point in March (18,200). One direct reason is the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, which has dragged down global stock markets, including Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Therefore, since November, as expectations of a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve rate hike have grown stronger, the the US Dollar Index has been falling all the way down, from 113 to 105, and Hong Kong stocks have also risen in response, from 14,500 points to 20,000 points.</p><p><b>(2) Domestic fundamentals have improved, and foreign capital has returned.</b></p><p>There's no need to elaborate on this; after the liberalization, the market's biggest expectation is \"economic recovery.\"</p><p>Driven by this expectation, real estate prices rose, and consumption rose.<b>Foreign capital has also started buying up Chinese assets again.</b></p><p>Since November, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has increased its net holdings of Hong Kong shares by 18.9 billion yuan, while UBS has increased its holdings by 14.4 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038d73022fe4af00ea86c6db44a50ef3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Let's compare the data from February 2021 to October this year.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase has cumulatively reduced its holdings in Hong Kong stocks by 37.8 billion yuan, while UBS has cumulatively reduced its holdings by 27.4 billion yuan...</p><p>In just over a month, they brought back half of the shares they had sold over the past two years.</p><p>Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight, foreign investors who once voted with their feet are back!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8eaad9e0909426242ddc292eefc9b2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Internet performance turning point</b></p><p>This brings us to the third-quarter report.<b>After cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the performance of internet companies has improved significantly.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, Tencent's performance growth turned positive, while the performance of Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, and Meituan also exceeded market expectations. As a result, institutions summarized the third-quarter reports of the internet industry as \"most companies' performance exceeded expectations, and the turning point of recovery is gradually becoming clear.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850f0e8794fb2bf97a8fd7e821fcd1a\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(4) It has fallen more.</b></p><p>This is also an important reason.</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat wrote that the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a maximum drop of 75% this time. Although it has now rebounded by more than 50%, it still needs to rise by another 164% to return to its highest point.</p><p>The same applies to the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>Before the decline, the Hang Seng Index had fallen from a high of 31,183 to a low of 14,597, a full 53% drop.</p><p>Although it has now rebounded to 19,464, it is still 60% away from its highest point.</p><p><b>02 Where are we now?</b></p><p><b>(1) Valuation</b></p><p>Since US dollar liquidity is a crucial factor determining the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks, let's take a look at...<b>The Hang Seng Index's \"risk premium\" relative to US Treasury bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d675bd7cadf8708496b0fde21104f8\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) 8.56% presents an opportunity. At several major bottoms, the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds has exceeded 8.56%.</b></p><p><b>2) On March 15 and the end of October this year, the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds exceeded 9%, which led to the two major market rallies that followed.</b></p><p>Looking at the percentile chart, it's even more obvious that the two circled points, one on March 15th and the other at the end of October, have percentiles above 90%, which is definitely an underestimation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33db11ba13f59f99b2de11591b25be5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) As for now, the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds is 6.71%, which is far from the opportunity point and near the historical average.</b></p><p><b>From a valuation perspective, given the current level of US Treasury yields, the Hang Seng Index's valuation value is no longer that high.</b></p><p>But it's not that pessimistic.</p><p><b>Compared to its own valuation, the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio is only 9.73 times, which is still close to the opportunity value.</b></p><p><b>Moreover, the Hang Seng Index's PE percentile is only 32.64%, which is two-thirds lower than its historical valuation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1460473828e11cae91ad86e3cf2c5cf\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Position cost line</b></p><p>Let's look at everyone's cost line.</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat conducted a survey to see what everyone's position cost line was.</p><p><b>The cost of holding the Hang Seng Tech Index is around 5500 points, which translates to the beginning of this year.</b></p><p><b>Corresponding to the Hang Seng Index, at the beginning of this year, the Hang Seng Index was around 24,000 points, and the Hang Seng Index is still some distance from a strong selling pressure (the position where it breaks even).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17dc85daf23747183ca1ce07cb72593\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03</b></p><p>Finally, here are the key points:</p><p>(1) Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market. Their fundamentals follow the domestic market and their liquidity follows the US dollar. With the dual benefits of the Federal Reserve's slowdown in rate hike and the recovery of the domestic economy, they have seen a retaliatory rise since November.</p><p>At the same time, foreign capital, which had been continuously flowing out, also returned, bringing back half of the shares sold over the past two years in just over a month.</p><p><b>(2) After the surge, the valuation recovery of Hong Kong stocks has almost been completed. From the perspective of risk premium, the \"risk premium ratio\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds has returned to near the historical average, and the cost-effectiveness of stocks and bonds is no longer as high.</b></p><p><b>(3) However, compared with its own vertical comparison, the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still not high, and it is still attractive. Moreover, it is still some distance from most people's cost line. There may be profit-taking at this level, but the selling pressure should not be that large.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1624331313526","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still catch up?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still catch up?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">懒猫的丰收日</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-12 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>It fell, it fell.</p><p>Monday, December 12th,<b>The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 4% and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867f9086963978402f2981d477aa9222\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The A-share market also plummeted, with the three major indices all closing down nearly 1%.</p><p>However, judging from the comments, people don't seem worried about the sudden sharp drop:<b>If you dare to fall, I dare to make up for it; if it doesn't fall, then so be it!</b></p><p>Indeed, driven by multiple positive factors, Hong Kong stocks collectively surged in November.<b>The Hang Seng Index surged 26.62%, marking its biggest monthly gain since 2000.</b></p><p>Even since its establishment in 1964, this increase ranks 8th!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16900e6b7d72b1a105d706f0af700b5c\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the gains in December are also included, the Hang Seng Index gained an astonishing 32.52%, leading major global markets.</p><p>With a single arrow piercing the clouds and thousands of troops coming to meet, and with such a surge in prices, everyone should naturally no longer despair of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, another problem arose after the surge:<b>Is it still worth chasing Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c677a3b3daf779fdd53f4c10fbb34c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01 Why did it rise?</b></p><p>Let's first talk about why Hong Kong stocks are rising, mainly for these four reasons:</p><p><b>(1) The pace of Federal Reserve rate hike has slowed down.</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market, and their rise and fall are mainly affected by the liquidity of the US dollar.</p><p>Most of the time, when the US dollar falls, Hong Kong stocks rise; When the US dollar rises, Hong Kong stocks fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927fd6994f3915fad342737337dfa553\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, during the sharp decline in recent months, Hong Kong stocks fell to a low of 14,600 points, which is 20% lower than the low point in March (18,200). One direct reason is the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, which has dragged down global stock markets, including Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Therefore, since November, as expectations of a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve rate hike have grown stronger, the the US Dollar Index has been falling all the way down, from 113 to 105, and Hong Kong stocks have also risen in response, from 14,500 points to 20,000 points.</p><p><b>(2) Domestic fundamentals have improved, and foreign capital has returned.</b></p><p>There's no need to elaborate on this; after the liberalization, the market's biggest expectation is \"economic recovery.\"</p><p>Driven by this expectation, real estate prices rose, and consumption rose.<b>Foreign capital has also started buying up Chinese assets again.</b></p><p>Since November, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has increased its net holdings of Hong Kong shares by 18.9 billion yuan, while UBS has increased its holdings by 14.4 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038d73022fe4af00ea86c6db44a50ef3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Let's compare the data from February 2021 to October this year.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase has cumulatively reduced its holdings in Hong Kong stocks by 37.8 billion yuan, while UBS has cumulatively reduced its holdings by 27.4 billion yuan...</p><p>In just over a month, they brought back half of the shares they had sold over the past two years.</p><p>Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight, foreign investors who once voted with their feet are back!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8eaad9e0909426242ddc292eefc9b2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Internet performance turning point</b></p><p>This brings us to the third-quarter report.<b>After cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the performance of internet companies has improved significantly.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, Tencent's performance growth turned positive, while the performance of Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, and Meituan also exceeded market expectations. As a result, institutions summarized the third-quarter reports of the internet industry as \"most companies' performance exceeded expectations, and the turning point of recovery is gradually becoming clear.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850f0e8794fb2bf97a8fd7e821fcd1a\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(4) It has fallen more.</b></p><p>This is also an important reason.</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat wrote that the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a maximum drop of 75% this time. Although it has now rebounded by more than 50%, it still needs to rise by another 164% to return to its highest point.</p><p>The same applies to the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>Before the decline, the Hang Seng Index had fallen from a high of 31,183 to a low of 14,597, a full 53% drop.</p><p>Although it has now rebounded to 19,464, it is still 60% away from its highest point.</p><p><b>02 Where are we now?</b></p><p><b>(1) Valuation</b></p><p>Since US dollar liquidity is a crucial factor determining the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks, let's take a look at...<b>The Hang Seng Index's \"risk premium\" relative to US Treasury bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d675bd7cadf8708496b0fde21104f8\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) 8.56% presents an opportunity. At several major bottoms, the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds has exceeded 8.56%.</b></p><p><b>2) On March 15 and the end of October this year, the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds exceeded 9%, which led to the two major market rallies that followed.</b></p><p>Looking at the percentile chart, it's even more obvious that the two circled points, one on March 15th and the other at the end of October, have percentiles above 90%, which is definitely an underestimation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33db11ba13f59f99b2de11591b25be5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) As for now, the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds is 6.71%, which is far from the opportunity point and near the historical average.</b></p><p><b>From a valuation perspective, given the current level of US Treasury yields, the Hang Seng Index's valuation value is no longer that high.</b></p><p>But it's not that pessimistic.</p><p><b>Compared to its own valuation, the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio is only 9.73 times, which is still close to the opportunity value.</b></p><p><b>Moreover, the Hang Seng Index's PE percentile is only 32.64%, which is two-thirds lower than its historical valuation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1460473828e11cae91ad86e3cf2c5cf\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Position cost line</b></p><p>Let's look at everyone's cost line.</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat conducted a survey to see what everyone's position cost line was.</p><p><b>The cost of holding the Hang Seng Tech Index is around 5500 points, which translates to the beginning of this year.</b></p><p><b>Corresponding to the Hang Seng Index, at the beginning of this year, the Hang Seng Index was around 24,000 points, and the Hang Seng Index is still some distance from a strong selling pressure (the position where it breaks even).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17dc85daf23747183ca1ce07cb72593\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03</b></p><p>Finally, here are the key points:</p><p>(1) Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market. Their fundamentals follow the domestic market and their liquidity follows the US dollar. With the dual benefits of the Federal Reserve's slowdown in rate hike and the recovery of the domestic economy, they have seen a retaliatory rise since November.</p><p>At the same time, foreign capital, which had been continuously flowing out, also returned, bringing back half of the shares sold over the past two years in just over a month.</p><p><b>(2) After the surge, the valuation recovery of Hong Kong stocks has almost been completed. From the perspective of risk premium, the \"risk premium ratio\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to US Treasury bonds has returned to near the historical average, and the cost-effectiveness of stocks and bonds is no longer as high.</b></p><p><b>(3) However, compared with its own vertical comparison, the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still not high, and it is still attractive. Moreover, it is still some distance from most people's cost line. There may be profit-taking at this level, but the selling pressure should not be that large.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/js9T0kZGCS1HYCOZkK424A\">懒猫的丰收日</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/js9T0kZGCS1HYCOZkK424A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129031119","content_text":"跌了，跌了，12月12日周一，恒生科技指数跌了4%，恒生指数跌了2.2%。连带着A股也跟着颓了，三大指数收盘都跌了将近1%。不过看评论，大家对突如其来的大跌似乎并不担心：你敢跌，我就敢补，如果不跌，那就这样吧！也是，多重利好共振下，11月港股集体暴涨，恒生指数大涨26.62%，这是2000年以来恒指涨幅最大的一个月。即使从1964年成立以来算，这个涨幅也能排第8！如果把12月的涨幅也算进去的话，恒指的涨幅更是能达到惊人的32.52%，领跑全球主要市场。一根穿云箭，千军万马来相见，如此暴涨之下，大家自然不应该对港股再绝望。不过，大涨后另一个问题也随之而来：港股还能追吗？01为什么涨？先说说港股为什么涨，主要是这4个原因：（1）美联储加息节奏放缓港股是一个离岸市场，涨跌也主要受美元流动性的影响。大部分时间里，美元跌，港股就涨；美元涨，港股就跌。比如前几个月的大跌，港股最低跌到14600点，比3月份的低点（18200）还低了20%。一个直接原因就是美联储持续暴力加息，把包括港股在内的全球股市都拉下了水。所以，11月以来，随着美联储加息节奏放缓的预期越来越强烈，美元指数是一路下跌，从113跌到了105，港股也应声而起，从14500点涨回到了20000点。（2）国内基本面好转，外资又回来了这个就不用展开说了，放开后，市场最大的预期就是“经济复苏”。在这个预期带动下，地产涨了，消费涨了，连带着外资也开始重新抄底中国资产了。11月以来，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase &Co.）净增持了189亿港股，瑞银（UBS）增持了144亿港股。再对比下2021年2月到今年10月的数据，摩根大通累积减持了378亿港股，瑞银累积减持了274亿港股...一个多月就把过去2年抛售筹码的一半接回来了。忽如一夜春风来，曾经用脚投票的外资又回来了~（3）互联网业绩拐点这就要说到三季报了，降本增效后，互联网公司业绩明显改善。三季度，腾讯业绩增速转正，拼多多、快手、美团的业绩也超出了市场预期，以至于机构对互联网三季报的总结是“多数公司业绩超预期，复苏拐点逐步明晰”。（4）跌的多了这也是一个很重要的原因，前几天，懒猫还写过，这一波恒生科技指数最大跌幅是75%，现在虽然反弹了50%+，但回到最高点还需要再涨164%。恒生指数也一样，下跌前，恒生指数是从31183的高点跌下来的，最低跌到14597，足足跌了53%。现在虽然反弹到了19464，但离最高点还有60%的距离。02现在走到哪了？（1）估值既然美元流动性是决定港股涨跌的重要因素，那我们看下恒生指数相对于美债的“风险溢价率”。1）8.56%是一个机会点，几次大的底部，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率都超过了8.56%。2）今年3月15日和10月底，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率也都超过了9%，这才有了随之而来的两波大行情。看百分位图更明显，就是圈出来的那2个尖点，一个是3月15日，一个是10月底，百分位都在90%以上，绝对的低估。3）至于现在，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率是6.71%，已经远离了机会点，历史平均值附近。从估值上来说，在当前美债收益率水平下，恒生指数的估值性价比其实已经没那么高了。但也没那么悲观，和自身对比，看PE估值的话，恒生指数的PE只有9.73倍，还在机会值附近。而且恒指的PE百分位也只有32.64%，估值比历史上2/3的时候都低。（2）持仓成本线再看大家的成本线，前几天懒猫搞过一个调查：看看大家的持仓成本线是多少。恒生科技指数的持仓成本线在5500点附近，换算成时间也就是今年年初的时候。对应到恒生指数上，今年年初，恒生指数的点位在24000点附近，恒指离强抛压（保本出的位置）仍有一定距离。03最后提炼下要点：（1）港股是一个离岸市场，基本面跟着国内走，流动性跟着美元走，在美联储加息节奏放缓和国内经济复苏的双重利好下，11月以来出现了报复性上涨。与此同时，持续流出的外资也回来了，一个多月就把过去2年抛售筹码的一半接回来了。（2）大涨后，港股的估值修复行情其实已经差不多完成了。从风险溢价的角度来看，恒指相对美债的“风险溢价率”已经回到历史平均水平附近，股债性价比没那么高了。（3）但和自身纵向对比，港股的估值水平仍然算不得高，还有吸引力。而且离大部分人的成本线也还有一定距离，这个位置可能有止盈盘，但抛压应该没那么大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923724448,"gmtCreate":1670917627884,"gmtModify":1676538459629,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923724448","repostId":"1150737270","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923817951,"gmtCreate":1670822861374,"gmtModify":1676538440963,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923817951","repostId":"1195548564","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920040663,"gmtCreate":1670403854352,"gmtModify":1676538361062,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920040663","repostId":"1168304633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168304633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670338784,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168304633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 22:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Revisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168304633","media":"期乐会","summary":"有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。今天，与大家分享来自华尔街","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side, not the bullish or bearish side, but the real side. It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Today, I'd like to share some key investment philosophies from Livermore, the king of Wall Street speculation. Reading them will be beneficial, and I hope you find them helpful!</p><p><b>Point 1: Wall Street will not change, and human nature will not change.</b></p><p>The market has its own rules, and these rules are due to unchanging human nature.</p><p>One lesson I learned early on in the stock market is that there is nothing new on Wall Street, because speculation is as old as mountains. What happened in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again in the future. I guess what I really can't remember is when and how it happened. The facts I remember in this way are the ways I use experience.</p><p>Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They are outside the market, waiting to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune; At all times, fundamentally due to greed and fear, ignorance and hope, people always repeat their behavior in the same way—which is why the patterns and trends formed by those numbers always repeat themselves unchangingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dfda976f6f6063e48351d7a18d95c47\" tg-width=\"335\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Key point two: Making big money requires patience and \"waiting\".</b></p><p>Patiently wait for a truly perfect market trend, and avoid making predictive interventions; Timing is everything; buy at the right time and sell at the right time.</p><p>Trading is not something you do every day. People who think they have to trade at any time overlook one condition: trading requires a reason, and it must be an objective and appropriate reason.</p><p>In addition to trying to decide how to make money, traders must try to avoid losing money. Knowing what to do is almost as important as knowing what not to do.</p><p>Stock traders must fight many costly enemies within themselves. Making big money requires waiting, not thinking; Be sure to wait until all factors are in your favor.</p><p>The reason why predicting the market is so difficult is because of human nature. Mastering and conquering human nature is the most difficult task. Careful timing is very important; there are consequences to being too hasty.</p><p>My losses were entirely due to a lack of patience, a lack of patience to wait for the right moment to support preconceived notions and plans. I don't understand that 15 years later, some things allowed me to wait two long weeks, watching a stock I was very optimistic about rise by 30 points, before I felt it was safe to buy.</p><p>This requires patience, waiting for the right key points to appear and the right trading opportunity. Patience, patience, and more patience—this is his secret to seizing opportunities and achieving success. He often said, \"What makes money is not ideas, but waiting quietly.\"</p><p>All a person needs to do is observe what the market is telling him and react to it. The answer lies in the market itself, and the challenge comes from correctly interpreting the facts presented.</p><p>\"Timing is everything.\" Before entering a trade, the most important thing is to determine whether the minimum resistance line aligns with the direction of your trade.</p><p>My experience is that if I don't enter the market near the beginning of a trend, I will never make much profit from it. The reason is that I missed out on profit reserves.</p><p>With this courage and patience, he can observe market changes quietly and hold his stock in the face of the small pullbacks or rebounds that will inevitably occur before the end of this market rally.</p><p>The market will promptly signal you when to enter the market. It's also certain that the market will signal your exit in time—if you wait patiently.</p><p>\"Rome wasn't built in a day,\" and truly significant trends don't end in a day or a week. It takes time for it to complete its logical process.</p><p>Many times, Livermore holds cash and waits until the right market conditions emerge. Much of his success lies in his ability to hold his money and wait patiently until the right market conditions appear before him.</p><p>When market conditions arise and many opportunities in his favor present themselves, it is at this time, and only at this time, that he darts out like a cobra.</p><p>A key to my later trading theory was to trade only on key points. As long as I have patience and trade on key points, I can always make money. I also believe that the largest part of a stock's rally often occurs in the last two weeks or longer of the rally.</p><p>However, remember that when using key points to predict market trends, if the stock does not perform as it should after crossing the key point, it is an important warning sign that requires immediate attention. If I lose patience and don't wait for the key points to appear, but instead try to make money easily, I will definitely lose money.</p><p>It is also important to note that a significant increase in trading volume near the end of a market rally is often a real distribution. Because stocks shifted from strong traders to weak traders, and from professional traders to ordinary investors.</p><p>Most investors believe that a significant increase in trading volume is a signal of an active and healthy market after a normal adjustment—either towards the highest price or the lowest price—but this view is unfounded.</p><p>I want to make it clear to those who are willing to regard speculation as a serious business, and I wish to solemnly reiterate, that wishful thinking must be eliminated; Those who expect to speculate every day or every week will not succeed; The number of times you allow yourself to enter a trade may only be four or five times a year.</p><p>Before trading, wait, wait patiently, until as many factors as possible are in your favor before trading.</p><p>Patience can make you money. It is dangerous not to predict or estimate when and in what direction the market will move.</p><p>You must wait for the market or stock to break through. Don't estimate; wait for the market to confirm it. Don't argue with the quotation. Cash was, is, and always will be king.</p><p>In fact, it is often those who hold their money and wait for the right time to trade that can make big money. Patience, patience, and patience are the keys to success. If a shrewd speculator grasps this, time is his best friend.</p><p>Enter the market at the right time. Time is not money because sometimes, even if you enter the market early, you can't make money—time is time, and money is money. Funds can only make money when they enter the market at the right time—patience, patience, and more patience are the keys to success.</p><p>Do not predict or take action without market confirmation. There were many times when I, like many other speculators, didn't have the patience to wait for what was bound to happen.</p><p>I am human, and I succumb to human weaknesses. Like all speculators, I lost my patience, lost my correct judgments, and reversed their position—filled with hope when I should have been afraid. Feeling afraid when there should be hope.</p><p>Real trends don't end the day they start, and a real trend takes time. Remember that stocks are never too high, so high that you can't start buying and so low that you can't start selling. However, after the first trade, do not make a second trade unless the first one makes a profit. We must wait and observe. This is when your market analysis skills come into play, allowing you to determine the right time to start.</p><p>The success of many things depends on whether they start at exactly the right time. It took me many years to understand the importance of this.</p><p><b>Point 3: Achieve success through hard research and clear thinking.</b></p><p>Right is right, wrong is wrong, only do the right thing, don't make mistakes worse.</p><p>A brilliant speculator once told me: When I see a danger signal, I don't argue with it. I'm dodging! In a few days, if everything looks good, I'll come back. I thought that if I was walking along the tracks and saw a train coming at me at sixty miles an hour, I would jump off the tracks and let the train pass instead of standing there foolishly. After it passes, I can always get back on the tracks if I want to.</p><p>These words vividly demonstrate a kind of speculative wisdom that I will never forget.</p><p>Strangely enough, the trouble most speculators run into is something inside themselves that makes them lack the courage to close their positions when they should.</p><p>They hesitated, and in their hesitation, they watched helplessly as the market changed many points in a direction unfavorable to them.</p><p>Obviously, what should be done is to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market. It sounds funny, but I must understand this general principle deeply before I can put it into practice. It took me a long time to learn to trade according to these principles.</p><p>Market analysis is an important part of this game, starting at the right time is also important, and sticking to your position is just as important. However, my biggest discovery is that one must study and evaluate the overall situation in order to predict future possibilities.</p><p>I no longer gambled blindly, no longer cared about mastering the techniques, but rather about achieving my success through diligent research and clear thinking.</p><p>I also discovered that no one is immune to the danger of making foolish moves. If a person acts foolishly, he must pay the price for his foolishness.</p><p><b>Point 4: Don't compete with the market.</b></p><p>The market tolerates and digests everything; it is always right, and conforming to the market is the wisest thing to do.</p><p>My theory is that there is always an irresistible force behind these major trends. Knowing this is enough. Being too curious about all the reasons behind price movements is not a good thing.</p><p>As long as you recognize where the trend is emerging and ride your speculative ship with the trend, you can benefit from it without arguing with the market. Most importantly, don't compete with the market for superiority.</p><p>The public should always remember the elements of stock trading. When a stock rises, there is no need to spend time explaining why it rises. Continuous buying will cause the stock price to continue to rise. As long as the stock price continues to rise and occasionally experiences a natural slight pullback, following the upward trend is generally a fairly safe approach.</p><p>However, if the stock price gradually turns downward after a long period of stable rise, with only occasional rebounds, it is clear that the path of least resistance has shifted from upward to downward. That's the case, so why look for an explanation?</p><p>There are likely good reasons for the stock price decline, but only a few people know about these reasons. They either kept their reasons secret or told the public that the stock was very cheap. That's the essence of this game. The public should understand that a few people who know the inside story will not tell the truth.</p><p>The simple fact is that the market always changes before there is economic news, and the market does not react to economic news. The market is dynamic; it reflects the future.</p><p>Greed, like fear, distorts reason. The stock market only speaks of facts, reality, and rationality. The stock market is never wrong; it is the traders who are wrong.</p><p><b>Point 5: The stock market has only one side, the factual side.</b></p><p>Losses are the cost of trading. Failure is not terrible; what is terrible is not learning enough lessons from failure.</p><p>No matter how experienced a trader is, there is always the possibility that he will make mistakes and make losing trades. Because speculation cannot be 100% safe. So-called experience is one that has many profound lessons, which can be heartbreaking and embarrassing. No pain, no memory, no pain, no reflection. That's what happened. It's normal for a person to make mistakes, but if he can't learn from them, then he's really wronged.</p><p>Nothing in the world teaches you what not to do more than losing everything. When you know what you shouldn't do to avoid losing money, you start learning what you should do to win.</p><p>If someone tells me that my method won't work, I'll give it a thorough try anyway, just to be sure. Because when I'm wrong, there's only one thing—losing money—that can make me believe I'm wrong.</p><p>I know that one day I will find the wrong place and not make mistakes again. I'm only right when I'm making money; that's speculation.</p><p>It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes. Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side: not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side.</p><p>It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Losing money is the last thing that bothers me. After I admitted my losses, they never bothered me; I forgot about them the next day. But mistakes—not admitting fault—are things that hurt your pockets and your heart.</p><p>If a man does not make mistakes, he will have the whole world in a month. However, if he cannot benefit from his mistakes, he can never have anything good.</p><p><b>Point Six: Unable to control one's emotions is a speculator's biggest enemy.</b></p><p>Trading is a confrontation between reason and emotion, and trading requires rational planning.</p><p>I realized a long time ago that the stock market is never uneventful. It's designed to fool most people, most of the time.</p><p>The two main emotions in the stock market are hope and fear—hope often arises from greed, while fear often arises from ignorance.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They wait outside the market to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune.</p><p>Hope is essential to human survival, but hope is like its cousin in the stock market—ignorance, greed, fear, and twisted reason. Hope covers up the truth, while the stock market only recognizes the truth. The result is objective, it is final, like nature, it will not change.</p><p>The main enemy of speculators always comes from within. Humanity cannot be separated from hope and fear. When speculating, if the market turns against you, you hope that every day will be the last day—and if you don't follow your hopes, you will lose more than you should—so strongly that you can compare it with the great and small founding heroes and pioneers of the country.</p><p>When the market goes your way, you fear it will take all your profits tomorrow, so you exit—too quickly. Fear prevents you from earning as much money as you should.</p><p>Successful traders must overcome these two deep-rooted instincts. He had to change what you could call a natural impulse. He should be afraid when he is hopeful, and he should be hopeful when he is afraid. He must be afraid that his losses might turn into bigger losses and hope that his profits might turn into bigger profits. It is absolutely wrong to gamble on stocks as ordinary people do.</p><p>Remember, if an investor lacks self-discipline, a clear strategy, and a simple, easy-to-implement plan, they will fall into an emotional trap. Because a speculator without a plan is like a general without a strategy, and therefore without a viable battle plan.</p><p><b>Point 7: Never allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</b></p><p>Take control of your trades and manage your funds.</p><p>Unless you know that the transaction you are about to make is financially secure, never make any transaction.</p><p>The dilemma faced by inexperienced speculators is often that they pay too much for each position. And why? Because everyone wants to trade. It is inhuman to pay too much for each transaction. People want to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest. Maintain a calm mindset. Don't argue with facts, don't hold onto hope when there is no hope, and don't argue with quote machines, because quote machines are always right—in speculation, there is no place for hope, no place for guesswork, no place for fear, no place for greed, and no place for emotion.</p><p>Finally, speculators should buy stocks in several installments, and only buy a certain percentage each time.</p><p>If, under certain circumstances, I buy a stock I'm optimistic about but it doesn't perform as I hoped, that's enough evidence for me to sell the stock.</p><p>I introduced my 10% rule—if I lost more than 10% on a trade, I would sell immediately.</p><p>I threw it out on instinct. In reality, this is not instinct, but a subconscious accumulated through years of struggle in the stock market. You must obey the rules you set for yourself—don't deceive yourself, don't procrastinate, don't wait! My basic principle is never to allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</p><p><b>Key Point 8: Making Big Money Amidst High Volatility</b></p><p>An investor's greatest enemy is not the market, nor anything else, but the investor himself. Only large fluctuations can make you big money.</p><p>Let me tell you something: after all these years on Wall Street, making millions of dollars and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: my ideas have never made me big money; it's always me who persists and makes me big money. Understood? It's because I can't move!</p><p>It is not surprising that his judgment of the market was correct. In a bull market, you will always find many people who go long from the start, while in a bear market, you will also find many people who go short from the start.</p><p>It is very rare for someone to be able to make correct judgments and stick to them at the same time, and I find this to be the hardest thing to learn. However, only when a stock trader truly understands this can he make big money. This is absolutely true. It is easier for an operator to make millions of dollars when he knows how to operate it than it is for him to make hundreds of dollars when he knows nothing.</p><p>The reason is that a person may see clearly and distinctly, but when the market is calm and ready to go in the direction he thinks it will go, he becomes impatient or doubtful.</p><p>There are so many people on Wall Street who don't belong to the fool class at all, not even the third-level fool, yet they all lose money. That's the reason why.</p><p>The market didn't defeat them; they defeated themselves. Because although they had intelligence, they couldn't stand still.</p><p>I began to understand that to make big money, you must make it amidst large fluctuations. Regardless of the factors that may have driven the start of the large volatility, as long as the facts are in place, the large volatility can continue. This is not the result of speculation by insider groups or the skills of financiers, but relies on the underlying situation.</p><p>Ignoring large fluctuations and trying to rush in and out is a fatal threat to me. No one person can capture all the ups and downs. In a bull market, your approach is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is about to end.</p><p>To do this, you must study the overall trend, not the open cards or specific factors affecting individual stocks, and then you must forget all your stocks, forever!</p><p>One of the most helpful things anyone can learn is to give up trying to grab the last or first gear.</p><p>These two gears are the most expensive things in the world. Together, these two schemes cost investors millions of dollars, enough to build a cement highway across the Americas.</p><p>A person who lacks confidence in his own judgment will not go very far in this kind of game. That's pretty much all I've learned—to study the overall situation, take a position, and stick with it.</p><p><b>Point Nine: The person who solves the stock market, humanity's greatest mystery, deserves the jackpot.</b></p><p>Speculation is not only a game, but also your own career, requiring continuous effort, dedication, and summarization.</p><p>Stock trading is essentially playing a game, and you must win. Good stock traders, like well-trained professional athletes, must develop good lifestyle habits and maintain ample physical strength.</p><p>Money is definitely not what drives me. It is a game, a game to solve mysteries, a game to confuse and complicate the greatest minds in human history.</p><p>For me, passion, challenge, and excitement are all in winning this game. This game is a dynamic riddle, and the answer to this riddle is for me to tell all the men and women who speculate on Wall Street.</p><p>In the game, your nerves are pushed to the limit, but the rewards are also very high. My career is about trading—that is, following the facts at hand, not following what I think others should do.</p><p>Let me remind you that your success will be directly proportional to the sincerity and loyalty you show in your efforts. This effort involves consistently keeping track of market trends, thinking for yourself, and drawing your own conclusions.</p><p>If a person wants to make a living from this game, they must trust themselves and their judgment. No one can rely on others telling him how to make big money.</p><p>The stock market is the biggest and most complex mystery humankind has ever invented, and whoever solves it deserves a jackpot. It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes.</p><p>Let's review it again: Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side, not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side. It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Finally, let us conclude with the words of Wall Street Watcher Richard Smitten: \"Thank you, Jesse Livermore, for your wisdom, for your hard work, and for your extraordinary insight.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Revisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRevisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-06 22:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side, not the bullish or bearish side, but the real side. It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Today, I'd like to share some key investment philosophies from Livermore, the king of Wall Street speculation. Reading them will be beneficial, and I hope you find them helpful!</p><p><b>Point 1: Wall Street will not change, and human nature will not change.</b></p><p>The market has its own rules, and these rules are due to unchanging human nature.</p><p>One lesson I learned early on in the stock market is that there is nothing new on Wall Street, because speculation is as old as mountains. What happened in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again in the future. I guess what I really can't remember is when and how it happened. The facts I remember in this way are the ways I use experience.</p><p>Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They are outside the market, waiting to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune; At all times, fundamentally due to greed and fear, ignorance and hope, people always repeat their behavior in the same way—which is why the patterns and trends formed by those numbers always repeat themselves unchangingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dfda976f6f6063e48351d7a18d95c47\" tg-width=\"335\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Key point two: Making big money requires patience and \"waiting\".</b></p><p>Patiently wait for a truly perfect market trend, and avoid making predictive interventions; Timing is everything; buy at the right time and sell at the right time.</p><p>Trading is not something you do every day. People who think they have to trade at any time overlook one condition: trading requires a reason, and it must be an objective and appropriate reason.</p><p>In addition to trying to decide how to make money, traders must try to avoid losing money. Knowing what to do is almost as important as knowing what not to do.</p><p>Stock traders must fight many costly enemies within themselves. Making big money requires waiting, not thinking; Be sure to wait until all factors are in your favor.</p><p>The reason why predicting the market is so difficult is because of human nature. Mastering and conquering human nature is the most difficult task. Careful timing is very important; there are consequences to being too hasty.</p><p>My losses were entirely due to a lack of patience, a lack of patience to wait for the right moment to support preconceived notions and plans. I don't understand that 15 years later, some things allowed me to wait two long weeks, watching a stock I was very optimistic about rise by 30 points, before I felt it was safe to buy.</p><p>This requires patience, waiting for the right key points to appear and the right trading opportunity. Patience, patience, and more patience—this is his secret to seizing opportunities and achieving success. He often said, \"What makes money is not ideas, but waiting quietly.\"</p><p>All a person needs to do is observe what the market is telling him and react to it. The answer lies in the market itself, and the challenge comes from correctly interpreting the facts presented.</p><p>\"Timing is everything.\" Before entering a trade, the most important thing is to determine whether the minimum resistance line aligns with the direction of your trade.</p><p>My experience is that if I don't enter the market near the beginning of a trend, I will never make much profit from it. The reason is that I missed out on profit reserves.</p><p>With this courage and patience, he can observe market changes quietly and hold his stock in the face of the small pullbacks or rebounds that will inevitably occur before the end of this market rally.</p><p>The market will promptly signal you when to enter the market. It's also certain that the market will signal your exit in time—if you wait patiently.</p><p>\"Rome wasn't built in a day,\" and truly significant trends don't end in a day or a week. It takes time for it to complete its logical process.</p><p>Many times, Livermore holds cash and waits until the right market conditions emerge. Much of his success lies in his ability to hold his money and wait patiently until the right market conditions appear before him.</p><p>When market conditions arise and many opportunities in his favor present themselves, it is at this time, and only at this time, that he darts out like a cobra.</p><p>A key to my later trading theory was to trade only on key points. As long as I have patience and trade on key points, I can always make money. I also believe that the largest part of a stock's rally often occurs in the last two weeks or longer of the rally.</p><p>However, remember that when using key points to predict market trends, if the stock does not perform as it should after crossing the key point, it is an important warning sign that requires immediate attention. If I lose patience and don't wait for the key points to appear, but instead try to make money easily, I will definitely lose money.</p><p>It is also important to note that a significant increase in trading volume near the end of a market rally is often a real distribution. Because stocks shifted from strong traders to weak traders, and from professional traders to ordinary investors.</p><p>Most investors believe that a significant increase in trading volume is a signal of an active and healthy market after a normal adjustment—either towards the highest price or the lowest price—but this view is unfounded.</p><p>I want to make it clear to those who are willing to regard speculation as a serious business, and I wish to solemnly reiterate, that wishful thinking must be eliminated; Those who expect to speculate every day or every week will not succeed; The number of times you allow yourself to enter a trade may only be four or five times a year.</p><p>Before trading, wait, wait patiently, until as many factors as possible are in your favor before trading.</p><p>Patience can make you money. It is dangerous not to predict or estimate when and in what direction the market will move.</p><p>You must wait for the market or stock to break through. Don't estimate; wait for the market to confirm it. Don't argue with the quotation. Cash was, is, and always will be king.</p><p>In fact, it is often those who hold their money and wait for the right time to trade that can make big money. Patience, patience, and patience are the keys to success. If a shrewd speculator grasps this, time is his best friend.</p><p>Enter the market at the right time. Time is not money because sometimes, even if you enter the market early, you can't make money—time is time, and money is money. Funds can only make money when they enter the market at the right time—patience, patience, and more patience are the keys to success.</p><p>Do not predict or take action without market confirmation. There were many times when I, like many other speculators, didn't have the patience to wait for what was bound to happen.</p><p>I am human, and I succumb to human weaknesses. Like all speculators, I lost my patience, lost my correct judgments, and reversed their position—filled with hope when I should have been afraid. Feeling afraid when there should be hope.</p><p>Real trends don't end the day they start, and a real trend takes time. Remember that stocks are never too high, so high that you can't start buying and so low that you can't start selling. However, after the first trade, do not make a second trade unless the first one makes a profit. We must wait and observe. This is when your market analysis skills come into play, allowing you to determine the right time to start.</p><p>The success of many things depends on whether they start at exactly the right time. It took me many years to understand the importance of this.</p><p><b>Point 3: Achieve success through hard research and clear thinking.</b></p><p>Right is right, wrong is wrong, only do the right thing, don't make mistakes worse.</p><p>A brilliant speculator once told me: When I see a danger signal, I don't argue with it. I'm dodging! In a few days, if everything looks good, I'll come back. I thought that if I was walking along the tracks and saw a train coming at me at sixty miles an hour, I would jump off the tracks and let the train pass instead of standing there foolishly. After it passes, I can always get back on the tracks if I want to.</p><p>These words vividly demonstrate a kind of speculative wisdom that I will never forget.</p><p>Strangely enough, the trouble most speculators run into is something inside themselves that makes them lack the courage to close their positions when they should.</p><p>They hesitated, and in their hesitation, they watched helplessly as the market changed many points in a direction unfavorable to them.</p><p>Obviously, what should be done is to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market. It sounds funny, but I must understand this general principle deeply before I can put it into practice. It took me a long time to learn to trade according to these principles.</p><p>Market analysis is an important part of this game, starting at the right time is also important, and sticking to your position is just as important. However, my biggest discovery is that one must study and evaluate the overall situation in order to predict future possibilities.</p><p>I no longer gambled blindly, no longer cared about mastering the techniques, but rather about achieving my success through diligent research and clear thinking.</p><p>I also discovered that no one is immune to the danger of making foolish moves. If a person acts foolishly, he must pay the price for his foolishness.</p><p><b>Point 4: Don't compete with the market.</b></p><p>The market tolerates and digests everything; it is always right, and conforming to the market is the wisest thing to do.</p><p>My theory is that there is always an irresistible force behind these major trends. Knowing this is enough. Being too curious about all the reasons behind price movements is not a good thing.</p><p>As long as you recognize where the trend is emerging and ride your speculative ship with the trend, you can benefit from it without arguing with the market. Most importantly, don't compete with the market for superiority.</p><p>The public should always remember the elements of stock trading. When a stock rises, there is no need to spend time explaining why it rises. Continuous buying will cause the stock price to continue to rise. As long as the stock price continues to rise and occasionally experiences a natural slight pullback, following the upward trend is generally a fairly safe approach.</p><p>However, if the stock price gradually turns downward after a long period of stable rise, with only occasional rebounds, it is clear that the path of least resistance has shifted from upward to downward. That's the case, so why look for an explanation?</p><p>There are likely good reasons for the stock price decline, but only a few people know about these reasons. They either kept their reasons secret or told the public that the stock was very cheap. That's the essence of this game. The public should understand that a few people who know the inside story will not tell the truth.</p><p>The simple fact is that the market always changes before there is economic news, and the market does not react to economic news. The market is dynamic; it reflects the future.</p><p>Greed, like fear, distorts reason. The stock market only speaks of facts, reality, and rationality. The stock market is never wrong; it is the traders who are wrong.</p><p><b>Point 5: The stock market has only one side, the factual side.</b></p><p>Losses are the cost of trading. Failure is not terrible; what is terrible is not learning enough lessons from failure.</p><p>No matter how experienced a trader is, there is always the possibility that he will make mistakes and make losing trades. Because speculation cannot be 100% safe. So-called experience is one that has many profound lessons, which can be heartbreaking and embarrassing. No pain, no memory, no pain, no reflection. That's what happened. It's normal for a person to make mistakes, but if he can't learn from them, then he's really wronged.</p><p>Nothing in the world teaches you what not to do more than losing everything. When you know what you shouldn't do to avoid losing money, you start learning what you should do to win.</p><p>If someone tells me that my method won't work, I'll give it a thorough try anyway, just to be sure. Because when I'm wrong, there's only one thing—losing money—that can make me believe I'm wrong.</p><p>I know that one day I will find the wrong place and not make mistakes again. I'm only right when I'm making money; that's speculation.</p><p>It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes. Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side: not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side.</p><p>It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Losing money is the last thing that bothers me. After I admitted my losses, they never bothered me; I forgot about them the next day. But mistakes—not admitting fault—are things that hurt your pockets and your heart.</p><p>If a man does not make mistakes, he will have the whole world in a month. However, if he cannot benefit from his mistakes, he can never have anything good.</p><p><b>Point Six: Unable to control one's emotions is a speculator's biggest enemy.</b></p><p>Trading is a confrontation between reason and emotion, and trading requires rational planning.</p><p>I realized a long time ago that the stock market is never uneventful. It's designed to fool most people, most of the time.</p><p>The two main emotions in the stock market are hope and fear—hope often arises from greed, while fear often arises from ignorance.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They wait outside the market to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune.</p><p>Hope is essential to human survival, but hope is like its cousin in the stock market—ignorance, greed, fear, and twisted reason. Hope covers up the truth, while the stock market only recognizes the truth. The result is objective, it is final, like nature, it will not change.</p><p>The main enemy of speculators always comes from within. Humanity cannot be separated from hope and fear. When speculating, if the market turns against you, you hope that every day will be the last day—and if you don't follow your hopes, you will lose more than you should—so strongly that you can compare it with the great and small founding heroes and pioneers of the country.</p><p>When the market goes your way, you fear it will take all your profits tomorrow, so you exit—too quickly. Fear prevents you from earning as much money as you should.</p><p>Successful traders must overcome these two deep-rooted instincts. He had to change what you could call a natural impulse. He should be afraid when he is hopeful, and he should be hopeful when he is afraid. He must be afraid that his losses might turn into bigger losses and hope that his profits might turn into bigger profits. It is absolutely wrong to gamble on stocks as ordinary people do.</p><p>Remember, if an investor lacks self-discipline, a clear strategy, and a simple, easy-to-implement plan, they will fall into an emotional trap. Because a speculator without a plan is like a general without a strategy, and therefore without a viable battle plan.</p><p><b>Point 7: Never allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</b></p><p>Take control of your trades and manage your funds.</p><p>Unless you know that the transaction you are about to make is financially secure, never make any transaction.</p><p>The dilemma faced by inexperienced speculators is often that they pay too much for each position. And why? Because everyone wants to trade. It is inhuman to pay too much for each transaction. People want to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest. Maintain a calm mindset. Don't argue with facts, don't hold onto hope when there is no hope, and don't argue with quote machines, because quote machines are always right—in speculation, there is no place for hope, no place for guesswork, no place for fear, no place for greed, and no place for emotion.</p><p>Finally, speculators should buy stocks in several installments, and only buy a certain percentage each time.</p><p>If, under certain circumstances, I buy a stock I'm optimistic about but it doesn't perform as I hoped, that's enough evidence for me to sell the stock.</p><p>I introduced my 10% rule—if I lost more than 10% on a trade, I would sell immediately.</p><p>I threw it out on instinct. In reality, this is not instinct, but a subconscious accumulated through years of struggle in the stock market. You must obey the rules you set for yourself—don't deceive yourself, don't procrastinate, don't wait! My basic principle is never to allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</p><p><b>Key Point 8: Making Big Money Amidst High Volatility</b></p><p>An investor's greatest enemy is not the market, nor anything else, but the investor himself. Only large fluctuations can make you big money.</p><p>Let me tell you something: after all these years on Wall Street, making millions of dollars and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: my ideas have never made me big money; it's always me who persists and makes me big money. Understood? It's because I can't move!</p><p>It is not surprising that his judgment of the market was correct. In a bull market, you will always find many people who go long from the start, while in a bear market, you will also find many people who go short from the start.</p><p>It is very rare for someone to be able to make correct judgments and stick to them at the same time, and I find this to be the hardest thing to learn. However, only when a stock trader truly understands this can he make big money. This is absolutely true. It is easier for an operator to make millions of dollars when he knows how to operate it than it is for him to make hundreds of dollars when he knows nothing.</p><p>The reason is that a person may see clearly and distinctly, but when the market is calm and ready to go in the direction he thinks it will go, he becomes impatient or doubtful.</p><p>There are so many people on Wall Street who don't belong to the fool class at all, not even the third-level fool, yet they all lose money. That's the reason why.</p><p>The market didn't defeat them; they defeated themselves. Because although they had intelligence, they couldn't stand still.</p><p>I began to understand that to make big money, you must make it amidst large fluctuations. Regardless of the factors that may have driven the start of the large volatility, as long as the facts are in place, the large volatility can continue. This is not the result of speculation by insider groups or the skills of financiers, but relies on the underlying situation.</p><p>Ignoring large fluctuations and trying to rush in and out is a fatal threat to me. No one person can capture all the ups and downs. In a bull market, your approach is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is about to end.</p><p>To do this, you must study the overall trend, not the open cards or specific factors affecting individual stocks, and then you must forget all your stocks, forever!</p><p>One of the most helpful things anyone can learn is to give up trying to grab the last or first gear.</p><p>These two gears are the most expensive things in the world. Together, these two schemes cost investors millions of dollars, enough to build a cement highway across the Americas.</p><p>A person who lacks confidence in his own judgment will not go very far in this kind of game. That's pretty much all I've learned—to study the overall situation, take a position, and stick with it.</p><p><b>Point Nine: The person who solves the stock market, humanity's greatest mystery, deserves the jackpot.</b></p><p>Speculation is not only a game, but also your own career, requiring continuous effort, dedication, and summarization.</p><p>Stock trading is essentially playing a game, and you must win. Good stock traders, like well-trained professional athletes, must develop good lifestyle habits and maintain ample physical strength.</p><p>Money is definitely not what drives me. It is a game, a game to solve mysteries, a game to confuse and complicate the greatest minds in human history.</p><p>For me, passion, challenge, and excitement are all in winning this game. This game is a dynamic riddle, and the answer to this riddle is for me to tell all the men and women who speculate on Wall Street.</p><p>In the game, your nerves are pushed to the limit, but the rewards are also very high. My career is about trading—that is, following the facts at hand, not following what I think others should do.</p><p>Let me remind you that your success will be directly proportional to the sincerity and loyalty you show in your efforts. This effort involves consistently keeping track of market trends, thinking for yourself, and drawing your own conclusions.</p><p>If a person wants to make a living from this game, they must trust themselves and their judgment. No one can rely on others telling him how to make big money.</p><p>The stock market is the biggest and most complex mystery humankind has ever invented, and whoever solves it deserves a jackpot. It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes.</p><p>Let's review it again: Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side, not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side. It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Finally, let us conclude with the words of Wall Street Watcher Richard Smitten: \"Thank you, Jesse Livermore, for your wisdom, for your hard work, and for your extraordinary insight.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rTBUIUZK6Ww9n6pAg0kpPA\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b95528fdc6a3c8b5fe288dfa493f854","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rTBUIUZK6Ww9n6pAg0kpPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168304633","content_text":"有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。今天，与大家分享来自华尔街投机之王利弗莫尔的几条投资理念要点，开卷有益，祝大家能有所收获哦！要点一：华尔街不会改变，人性不会改变市场是有规律的，市场的规律性缘因于不变的人性。我很早在股市中学到的一个教训，就是华尔街没有新事物，因为投机就像山岳那么古老。股市今天发生的事以前发生过，以后会再度发生。我想我真正没法记住的就是何时和如何发生。我用这种方式记住的事实，就是我利用经验的方法。华尔街从来不会改变，因为人的本性是从来不会改变的。我认为，控制不住自己的情绪是投机者真正的死敌。恐惧和贪婪总是存在的，他们就藏在我们的心里。它们在市场外面等着跳进市场来表现，等着机会大赚一把；无论是在什么时候，从根本上说由于贪婪和恐惧、无知和希望，人们总是按照相同的方法重复自己的行为——这就是为什么那些数字构成的图形和趋势，总是一成不变地重复出现的原因。要点二：赚大钱要靠耐心“等待”耐心等待市场真正完美的趋势，不要做预测性介入；时机就是一切，要在恰当的时候买进，也要在恰当的时候卖出。交易不是每天要做的事情，那种认为随时都要交易的人，忽略了一个条件，就是交易是需要理由的，而且是客观的、适当的理由。除了设法决定如何赚钱之外，交易者必须设法避免亏钱。知道什么应该做，跟知道什么不应该做几乎一样重要。股票作手必须对抗内心中很多代价高昂的敌人。赚大钱要靠等待，而不是靠想；一定要等到所有因素都对你有利的时机。预测市场之所以如此困难，就是因为人的本性。驾驭和征服人的本性是最困难的任务。仔细地选择时机是非常重要的，一旦操之过急，是要付出代价的。我的损失完全是由于缺乏耐心造成的，没有耐心地等待恰当的时机，来支持事先已经形成的看法和计划。不懂得15年后，有些事情让我能够等待长长的两星期，看着我十分看好的股票上涨30点时，才觉得买进很安全。这要有耐心，等着恰当的关键点出现，等着恰当的交易时机。耐心、耐心、再耐心这就是他把握时机，获得成功的诀窍。他常常说：“赚钱的不是想法，而是静等”。一个人需要做的，只是观察市场正在告诉他什么，并对此做出反应。答案就在市场本身，挑战来自对呈现出来的事实做出正确的解释。“时机就是一切”。在进入交易之前，最重要的是确定最小阻力线是否和你的交易方向一致。我的经验是，如果我不是在接近某个趋势的开始点才进入市场，我就绝对不会从这个趋势中获取多少利润。原因是，我错失了利润储备。有了这种勇气和耐心，他就可以静观市场变化，就可以在这次行情结束前必定不断出现的小的回落或回升面前持股不动。市场会及时向你发出什么时候进入市场的信号。同样肯定的是，市场也会及时向你发出退场的信号—如果你耐心等待的话。“罗马不是一天建成的”，真正重大的趋势不会在一天或一个星期就结束。它走完自己的逻辑过程是需要时间的。在很多时候，利弗摩尔是持币观望，直到合适的行情出现。他的很多成功就在于他能够持币观望，耐心等待，直到恰当的行情出现在他的面前。当行情出现，有很多对他有利的机会出现时，在这个时候，也只有在这个时候，他才像眼镜蛇一样，“噌”地一声窜出去。我后来的交易理论的一个关键是：只在关键点上进行交易。只要我有耐心，在关键点上进行交易，我就总能赚到钱。我还认为，一只股票的行情的最大部分，往往发生在这一次行情的最后两个星期或更长一段时间。但要记住，在使用关键点预测行情的时候如果这只股票在越过关键点之后，没有像它应该表现的那样，那就是一个需要立即引起注意的、重要的危险信号。只要我失去耐心，没有等到关键点的出现，而是像轻而易举地赚到钱，我就肯定会赔钱。另外需要注意的是：在一次行情快结束的时候，成交量大幅度增加，往往是一次真正的分配。因为股票从强手转给了弱手从专业操盘手转到了普通股民。一般股民认为成交量大幅增加是正常调整之后——不是向最高价格调整就是向最低价格调整——而出现的活跃和健康市场的一个信号，但是这种看法是没有依据的。我要向愿意把投机看成一种严肃生意的那些人说清楚，而且我希望郑重重申的是一厢情愿的想法必须清除；指望每天或每星期都投机的人，不会获得成功；你允许你自己进入交易的次数，一年可能只有四五次。在交易之前，要等待，要耐心地等待，直到尽可能多的因素都对你有利的时候，再进行交易。耐心可以使你赚到钱。不要预测或估计市场将在什么时候朝什么方向发展，这是很危险的。你必须等待市场或股票出现突破。不要估计，要等着市场来证实，不要跟报价单争论。现金过去是，现在是，将来也永远是国王。事实上，往往是那些持币观望，等到恰当时机进行交易的人，才能赚到大钱。耐心耐心再耐心，才是成功的关键。如果一个精明的投机者把握好这一点的话，时间就是他最好的朋友。掌握恰当的时机进入市场。时间不是金钱因为有时候，尽管你早早进入了市场，却不能赚到钱——时间就是时间，而资金就是资金。资金要等到恰当的时候进入市场才能赚到钱——耐心、耐心、再耐心，是成功的关键。如果没有市场的证实，不要预测，也不要采取行动。有很多次我和其他许多投机者一样，没有耐心等待肯定要发生的事情。我是人，也屈从于人的弱点。和所有的投机者一样，我也没有了耐心，失去了正确的判断，颠倒了它们的位置——在该感到害怕的时候却充满希望；在该充满希望的时候却感到恐惧。真正的趋势不会在它们开始那天就结束而一次真正的趋势是需要时间的。请记住股票永远不会太高，高到让你不能开始买进也不会低到让你不能开始卖出。但是在第一笔交易后，除非第一笔出现利润，否则别做第二笔。要等待和观察。这就是你解盘能力发挥作用的时候，让你能够判定开始的正确时机。很多事情成功与否，要看是否在完全正确的时机开始。我花了很多年才了解这一点的重要性。要点三：靠努力研究和清楚的思考赢得成功正确就是正确，错误就是错误，只做正确的事情，不要错上加错。一位极具天才的投机家曾经告诉过我：当我看见一个危险信号的时候，我不跟它争执。我躲开！几天以后，如果一切看起来还不错，我就再回来。我是这么想的，如果我正沿着铁轨往前走，看见一辆火车以每小时60英里的速度向我冲来，我会跳下铁轨让火车开过去，而不会愚蠢地站在那里不动。它开过去之后，只要我愿意，我总能再回到铁轨上来。这番话非常形象地表现了一种投机智慧令我始终不忘。奇怪的是，大多数投机者遇到的麻烦的是他们自己内心中的一些东西，使他们没有足够的勇气在他们应该平仓的时候平仓。他们犹豫不决，他们在犹豫当中，眼睁睁地看着市场朝着对自己不利的方向变动了很多个点。显然应该要做的事是在多头市场看多，在空头市场中看空。听起来很好笑，但是我必须深深了解这个一般原则，才能够把这个原则付诸实施。我花了很长的时间，才学会根据这些原则交易。解盘在这种游戏中是重要的一部分，在正确的时候开始也很重要，坚持自己的仓位也一样重要。但是，我最大的发现是一个人必须研究和评估整体状况，以便预测未来的可能性。我不再盲目地赌博，不再关心如何精通操作技巧，而是关心靠着努力研究和清楚的思考，赢得自己的成功。我也发现没有一个人能够免于犯下愚蠢操作的危险。一个人操作愚蠢，就要为愚蠢付出代价。要点四：不要与市场争高低市场包容和消化一切，它永远都是正确的，顺应市场是最明智的。我的理论是：在这些重大的趋势背后，总有一股不可抗拒的力量。知道这一点就足够了。对价格运动背后的所有原因过于好奇，不是什么好事。只要认识到趋势在什么地方出现，顺着潮流驾驭你的投机之舟，就能从中得到好处而不要跟市场争论，最重要的是，不要跟市场争个高低。大众应该始终记住股票交易的要素。一只股票上涨时，不需要花精神去解释它为什么会上涨。持续的买进，会让股价继续上涨。只要股价持续上涨，偶尔出现自然的小幅回档，跟着涨势走，大致都是相当安全的办法。但是，如果股价经过长期的稳定上升后逐渐转为开始下跌，只偶尔反弹，显然阻力最小的路线已经从向上变成向下。情形就是这样，为什么要寻找解释呢？股价下跌很可能有很好的理由，但是，这些理由只有少数人知道。他们不是把理由秘而不宣，就是反而告诉大众说这只股票很便宜。这个游戏的本质就是这样，大众应该了解，少数知道内情的人不会说出真相。简单的事实是，行情总是先发生变化，然后才有经济新闻，市场不会对经济新闻作出反应。市场是活的，它反映的是将来。贪婪和恐惧一样，都会扭曲理性。股市只讲事实，只讲现实，只讲理性，股市永远不会错，错的是交易者。要点五：股市只有一面，事实的一面亏损是交易的成本，失败并不可怕，可怕的是没有从失败中得到足够的教训。不管交易者多么有经验，他犯错做出亏损交易的可能性总是存在的。因为投机不可能百分之百安全。所谓经验就是教训比较多，比较深刻，让人心痛，让人尴尬。不痛，记不住，不痛，不会反思。事情就是这样。一个人犯错很正常，但是如果他不能从错误中吸取教训，那就真冤了。世界上没有什么东西，比亏光一切更能教会你不该做什么。等你知道不该做什么才能不亏钱时，你就开始学习该做什么才能赢钱。要是有人告诉我，说我的方法行不通，我反正也会彻底试一试，好让自己确定这一点。因为我错误的时候，只有一件事情—就是亏钱——能够让我相信我错了。我知道，总有一天我会找到错误的地方而不再犯错。只有赚钱的时候，我才算是正确，这就是投机。一个人要花很长的时间，才能从他所有错误中学到所有的教训。有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面：不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深地印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。亏钱是最不会让我困扰的事情。我认亏之后，亏损从来不会困扰我，隔天我就忘掉了。但是错误——没有认亏——却是伤害口袋和心灵的东西。要是一个人不犯错的话，他会在一个月之内拥有全世界。但是，如果他不能从错误中得到好处，他就绝对不能拥有什么好东西。要点六：控制不住自己的情绪是投机者最大的死敌交易就是理性与情感的对抗，交易需要理性的计划。我很早以前就认识到，股市从来都不是平淡无奇的。它是为愚弄大多数人、大多数时间而设计的。股市上的两种主要的情绪，希望和恐惧—希望往往是因为贪婪而产生的，而恐惧往往是因为无知而产生的。我认为，控制不住自己的情绪是投机者真正的死敌。恐惧和贪婪总是存在的，他们就藏在我们的心里。它们在市场外面等等着跳进市场来表现，等着机会大赚一把。希望对于人类的生存是至关重要的，但希望与股市上的表亲——无知、贪婪、恐惧和扭曲的理智是一样的。希望掩盖了事实而股市只认事实。结果是客观的，是最终的，就像大自然一样，是不会改变的。投机客的主要敌人总是从内心出现。人性跟希望和恐惧无法分开。在投机时，如果市场背离你，你希望每天都是最后一天—而且你要是不遵从希望，你会损失的比应有程度还多——强烈到可以媲美大大小小的开国功臣和开疆拓土的豪杰。市场照你的意思走时，你害怕明天会把你所有的利润拿走，因此你退出——退得太快了。害怕使你赚不到应赚的那么多钱。成功的交易者必须克服这两个根深蒂固的本能。他必须改变你可以称之为天性冲动的东西。他抱着希望时其实应该要害怕而在害怕时，他应该要抱着希望。他必须害怕他的亏损可能变成更大的亏损，希望他的利润可能变成更大的利润。照一般人那样在股票上赌博，绝对是错误的。记住，如果一个投资者没有自律，没有一种明确策略，没有一个简单易行的计划就会陷入情绪的陷阱。因为没有一个计划的投机者就像是一个没有战略，因而也就没有可行的作战方案的将军。要点七：绝不让亏损超过资本的10％控制你的交易，管理你的资金。除非你知道你要进行的交易在财务上是安全的，否则，绝不要进行任何交易。没有经验的投机者面临的困境，往往是为每一笔头寸付出的太多。为什么呢？因为每个人都想交易。为每笔交易付出太多是不符合人性的。人们都想在最低价时买进而在最高价时卖出。心态要平和，不要与事实争辩，不要在没有希望的时候保有希望，不要与报价机争辩，因为报价机总是正确的——在投机中没有希望的位置，没有猜测的位置，没有恐惧的位置，没有贪婪的位置、没有情绪的位置。最后，投机者在买股票的时候应该分几次买，而且每次只买一定的比例。如果我在某种情况下买进一只我看好的股票但它没有按照我所希望的那样表现，对我来说这就是卖掉这只股票的足够证据。我提出了我的10％规则——如果我在一笔交易中的损失超过10％，我就马上抛出。我凭本能抛出。实际上这不是本能而是多年来在股市上拼杀积累起来的潜意识。你必须服从你自己定的规则——不能欺骗你自己，不要拖延，不要等待！我的基本原则是，绝不让亏损超过资本的10％。要点八：大波动中赚大钱投资者最大的敌人不是市场，不是别的其他，而是投资者自己。大波动才能让你挣大钱。这里让我说一件事情：在华尔街经历了这么多年，赚了几百万美元，又亏了几百万美元之后，我想告诉你这一点：我的想法从来都没有替我赚过大钱，总是我坚持不动替我赚大钱。懂了吗？是我坚持不动！对市场判断正确丝毫不足为奇。你在多头市场里，总会找到很多一开始就做多的人而在空头市场里，也会找到很多一开始就做空的人。能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人是很罕见的，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。但是股票作手只有确实了解这一点之后，他才能够赚大钱。这一点千真万确。作手知道如何操作之后，要赚几百万美元，比他在一无所知时想赚几百美元还容易。原因在于一个人可能看得清楚而明确，却在市场从容不迫、准备照他认为一定会走的方向走时，他变得不耐烦或怀疑起来。华尔街有这么多根本不属于傻瓜阶级的人甚至不属于第三级傻瓜的人，却都会亏钱道理就在这里。市场并没有打败他们，他们打败了自己。因为他们虽然有头脑，却无法坚持不动。我开始了解，要赚大钱一定要在大波动中赚。不管推动大波动起步的因素可能是什么，只要事实俱在，大波动就能够持续下去。这不是内线集团炒作或金融家的技巧造成的结果，而是依靠基本形势。不理会大波动，设法抢进抢出，对我来说是致命大患。没有一个人能够抓住所有的起伏。在多头市场里，你的做法就是买进和紧抱，一直到你相信多头市场即将结束时为止。要这样做，你必须研究整个大势，而不是研究明牌或影响个股的特殊因素，然后你要忘掉你所有的股票，永远忘掉！任何人所能学到一个最有帮助的事情，就是放弃尝试抓住最后一档或第一档。这两档是世界上最昂贵的东西。总计起来这两档让股友耗费了千百万美元，多到足以建筑一条横贯美洲大陆的水泥公路。一个人如果对自己的判断没有信心，在这种游戏中就走不了多远。这些大概是我学到的一切—研究整体状况，承接仓位，并且坚持下去。要点九：解开股市这个人类最大谜团的人应该得头奖投机是一场游戏，更是你自己的事业，需要持续的努力、付出和总结。炒股实际上就是玩游戏，一定要在这场游戏中获胜。好的股票交易者不能不像训练有素的职业运动员一样，他们必须养成良好的生活习惯，保持充沛的体力。驱动我的也绝不是金钱。它是一场游戏是一场解开谜团的游戏，是一场把人类历史上最伟大的头脑搞乱、搞复杂的游戏。对我来说，激情、挑战、兴奋，都在打赢这场游戏之中了。这场游戏是一个充满活力的谜语，而这个谜底就是要由我来告诉在华尔街投机的所有男男女女的。在游戏中，你的神经被推到了极限，但奖赏也是非常高的。我的事业是交易——也就是遵循眼前的事实，而不是遵循我认为别人应当会做的事情。让我给你提个醒：你的成功将与你在自己的努力中所表现出来的真心和忠诚度成正比。这种努力包括坚持自己做行情记录并自己进行思考并得出自己的结论。一个人要是想靠这个游戏过活，必须相信自己和自己的判断。没有人能靠别人告诉他要怎么做赚大钱。股市是人类发明的最大的和最复杂的谜团而解开这个谜团的人是应该得头奖的。一个人要花很长的时间，才能从他所有错误中学到所有的教训。让我们再重温一遍：有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。最后，让我们以华尔街观察家理查德斯密腾的话作为结束：“谢谢你， 杰西·利弗摩尔，感谢你的智慧，感谢你所做的艰苦工作，感谢你那非凡的悟性。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965530897,"gmtCreate":1669978800619,"gmtModify":1676538282011,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965530897","repostId":"1125372710","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125372710","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669964538,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125372710?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 15:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Large Options Orders | Institutional Manipulation of Ultra-Short Options: Is AMC Cinema's Unusual Movement Signaling a Short Squeeze?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125372710","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四的美股期权合约总成交量为40,966,020份，较前一个交易日下跌了11%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (December 1)</b></p><p>On the first trading day of December, U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq rising slightly and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 190 points. Investors are assessing a range of economic data and awaiting Friday's November non-farm payrolls report. The Federal Reserve's favored October core PCE index indicated a decline in inflationary pressures, while the ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time since May 2020 in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e1415e73fd161b262198c1fa3b4bb9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the options market, total trading volume on Thursday was 40,966,020 contracts, down 11% from the previous trading day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Options trading was very active before the launch of its electric truck. Bullish bets on AMC Cinemas have surged. Options trading activity in Chinese concept stocks remains active.</p><p><b>II. Top 10 Options Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdcfa5b1f5895be547530a35a7172e6e\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Options trading on S&P 500 and Nasdaq ETFs remains the top two. This situation seems normal, but when analyzed in conjunction with recent market conditions, it takes on a different flavor—<b>Some argue that this is inseparable from the large amount of options intraday trading being conducted by professional institutional traders.</b></p><p>According to data provider OptionMetrics,<b>Intraday options trading volume, which tracks the S&P 500, has reached a record high, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.5 million in November, more than double that of January this year and more than four times that of early 2020.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Rocky Fishman recently stated that<b>Ultra-short-term options have consistently been \"the area with the strongest trading volume growth\". He estimates that intraday trading accounted for about 44% of S&P 500 options traded in the third and fourth quarters of this year.</b>Initially, Wall Street strategists thought that intraday options trading was mainly driven by individual investors, but according to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The study found that individual accounts accounted for only 5.6% of intraday options trading for the S&P 500.</p><p>Intraday options trading provides exposure to intraday fluctuations, with option sellers charging a premium and assuming price risk for a relatively short period of time.</p><p>The reason why intraday options trading is linked to market volatility is...<b>This is because market makers who sell options contracts hedge their positions to avoid betting on market trends, and sometimes this hedging can accelerate market changes.</b>For example, if the S&P 500 rises after market makers sell a large number of stock index call options, they can hedge by buying S&P 500 index futures. Some argue that index futures trading, in turn, affects stock prices.</p><p><b>Some financial institutions are attempting to \"weaponize\" this trading method, manipulating market trends by \"amplifying and extracting\" expectations.</b></p><p><b>III. Abnormal Movement</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2945068cb8671a5a30c6064583386da\" tg-width=\"437\" tg-height=\"837\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Regarding unusual activity,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Option abnormalities topped the list.<b>However, it is particularly noteworthy that the newly listed...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>However, its stock price surged as much as 27% on Thursday, marking its biggest gain since May 12, and closed up 13%.</b></p><p>Thursday,<b>AMC Cinemas' call option trading volume is three times the average of the past 20 days!</b>The $8 CALL Option expiring on December 2 saw particularly high trading volume, with 80,218 contracts traded. In addition, apewisdom shows that AMC Cinemas was mentioned 138 times on Reddit's WSB page in the past 24 hours, a surge of 626%, ranking third.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6888b24b5a1fcafb3b5ef68d4d7f80d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the leader in the \"retail investor short squeeze,\" is AMC Cinemas about to stir up another storm?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70446820d7d21c8a8d24fa95bf1cd3c0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Large Options Orders | Institutional Manipulation of Ultra-Short Options: Is AMC Cinema's Unusual Movement Signaling a Short Squeeze?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarge Options Orders | Institutional Manipulation of Ultra-Short Options: Is AMC Cinema's Unusual Movement Signaling a Short Squeeze?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 15:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (December 1)</b></p><p>On the first trading day of December, U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq rising slightly and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 190 points. Investors are assessing a range of economic data and awaiting Friday's November non-farm payrolls report. The Federal Reserve's favored October core PCE index indicated a decline in inflationary pressures, while the ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time since May 2020 in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e1415e73fd161b262198c1fa3b4bb9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the options market, total trading volume on Thursday was 40,966,020 contracts, down 11% from the previous trading day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Options trading was very active before the launch of its electric truck. Bullish bets on AMC Cinemas have surged. Options trading activity in Chinese concept stocks remains active.</p><p><b>II. Top 10 Options Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdcfa5b1f5895be547530a35a7172e6e\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Options trading on S&P 500 and Nasdaq ETFs remains the top two. This situation seems normal, but when analyzed in conjunction with recent market conditions, it takes on a different flavor—<b>Some argue that this is inseparable from the large amount of options intraday trading being conducted by professional institutional traders.</b></p><p>According to data provider OptionMetrics,<b>Intraday options trading volume, which tracks the S&P 500, has reached a record high, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.5 million in November, more than double that of January this year and more than four times that of early 2020.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Rocky Fishman recently stated that<b>Ultra-short-term options have consistently been \"the area with the strongest trading volume growth\". He estimates that intraday trading accounted for about 44% of S&P 500 options traded in the third and fourth quarters of this year.</b>Initially, Wall Street strategists thought that intraday options trading was mainly driven by individual investors, but according to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The study found that individual accounts accounted for only 5.6% of intraday options trading for the S&P 500.</p><p>Intraday options trading provides exposure to intraday fluctuations, with option sellers charging a premium and assuming price risk for a relatively short period of time.</p><p>The reason why intraday options trading is linked to market volatility is...<b>This is because market makers who sell options contracts hedge their positions to avoid betting on market trends, and sometimes this hedging can accelerate market changes.</b>For example, if the S&P 500 rises after market makers sell a large number of stock index call options, they can hedge by buying S&P 500 index futures. Some argue that index futures trading, in turn, affects stock prices.</p><p><b>Some financial institutions are attempting to \"weaponize\" this trading method, manipulating market trends by \"amplifying and extracting\" expectations.</b></p><p><b>III. Abnormal Movement</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2945068cb8671a5a30c6064583386da\" tg-width=\"437\" tg-height=\"837\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Regarding unusual activity,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Option abnormalities topped the list.<b>However, it is particularly noteworthy that the newly listed...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>However, its stock price surged as much as 27% on Thursday, marking its biggest gain since May 12, and closed up 13%.</b></p><p>Thursday,<b>AMC Cinemas' call option trading volume is three times the average of the past 20 days!</b>The $8 CALL Option expiring on December 2 saw particularly high trading volume, with 80,218 contracts traded. In addition, apewisdom shows that AMC Cinemas was mentioned 138 times on Reddit's WSB page in the past 24 hours, a surge of 626%, ranking third.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6888b24b5a1fcafb3b5ef68d4d7f80d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the leader in the \"retail investor short squeeze,\" is AMC Cinemas about to stir up another storm?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70446820d7d21c8a8d24fa95bf1cd3c0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125372710","content_text":"一、市场概览 （12月1日）12月首个交易日，美股涨跌不一，纳指微涨，道指下跌190点。投资者正在评估一系列经济数据，并等待周五的11月非农就业报告。美联储青睐的10月核心PCE指数表明通胀压力下降，11月ISM制造业指数出现2020年5月份以来的首次萎缩。在期权市场方面，周四的合约总成交量为40,966,020份，较前一个交易日下跌了11%。特斯拉的期权交易在其电动卡车上市前非常活跃。对AMC院线的看涨押注激增。中概股的期权交易活动依然活跃。二、期权成交总量TOP10标普及纳指ETF的期权交易依然排在前两位。这种情况看似平常，但结合近期市场情况来分析，就有了不同的味道——有观点认为，这与专业机构交易员正进行大量期权日内交易有分不开的关系。根据数据供应商OptionMetrics，目前追踪标普500指数的期权日内交易成交量已经达到创纪录高位，11月的日均成交量约为150万笔，是今年1月份的两倍多，更是2020年初交易量的四倍之多。高盛策略师Rocky Fishman近日表示，超短期期权一直是“交易量增长最强劲的领域”。他估计，在今年第三和第四季度交易的标普500指数期权中，日内交易的占比达到约44%。起初华尔街策略师以为期权日内交易主要由个人投资者推动的，但按照摩根大通的研究结果，在针对标普500指数的期权日内交易中，个人账户的占比仅为5.6%。期权日内交易可以从盘中波动获得风险敞口，其中期权卖方收取溢价，并在相对较短的时间内承担价格风险。而之所以会将期权日内交易和波动行情联系在一起，是考虑到卖出期权合约的做市商会对冲头寸以避免押注市场走向，而有时这种对冲将会加速行情变化。比如在做市商大量出售股指看涨期权之后，标普500指数上涨，那么他们就可以通过购买标普500指数期货来进行对冲。对此有观点认为，指数期货交易会反过来影响股价。部分金融机构试图将这种交易方式“武器化”，以“放大和榨取”预期的方式来左右市场走势。三、异动观察异动方面，阿里巴巴期权异动单登上榜首。不过，特别值得注意的是新上榜的AMC院线，但其股价周四一度飙升27%，创下5月12日以来的最大涨幅，收盘上涨13%。周四，AMC院线的看涨期权交易量是过去20天平均水平的三倍！12月2日到期的行权价8美元的CALL Option成交量尤其高，有80,218份合约交易。此外，apewisdom显示，AMC院线在过去24小时内在Reddit的WSB页面被提及138次，暴增626%，排名第三。作为“散户逼空”中的带头大哥，AMC院线是不是又要掀起一场风暴？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968860584,"gmtCreate":1669177185248,"gmtModify":1676538163166,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968860584","repostId":"2285893756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985943018,"gmtCreate":1667302930734,"gmtModify":1676537894351,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985943018","repostId":"2279138461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998395301,"gmtCreate":1660933738808,"gmtModify":1676536425443,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰","text":"$西方石油(OXY)$🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998395301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999954773,"gmtCreate":1660454100494,"gmtModify":1676533474384,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999954773","repostId":"1172206517","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172206517","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660349729,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172206517?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-13 08:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for the fourth consecutive week! Latest 13F holdings revealed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172206517","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨；美国国会众议院投票通过通胀削减法案；知名机构景林、文艺复兴Q2美股持仓曝光；5家中企宣布启动美股退市>>>海外市场收盘：美股周五收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨美股周","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising for the fourth consecutive week; The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the Inflation Reduction Act; Well-known institutions Greenwoods and Renaissance have revealed their Q2 US stock holdings; Five Chinese companies announce delisting from the US stock market >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising for the fourth consecutive week.</b></p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 424.38 points, or 1.27%, to 33,761.05. The Nasdaq rose 267.27 points, or 2.09%, to 13,047.19. The S&P 500 rose 72.88 points, or 1.73%, to 4,280.15. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.92%, the Nasdaq Composite up 3.08%, and the S&P 500 up 3.26%. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 recorded their fourth consecutive week of gains.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.39%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 0.92%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.70%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 0.23%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.19%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell 0.67%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 0.81%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>It fell 1.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 1.65%.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.4% on Friday.</b></p><p>The market expects the disruption to crude oil supply in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to be short-term, while concerns about an economic recession are casting a shadow over the demand outlook. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $2.25, or 2.4%, at $92.09 a barrel.</p><p><b>New York gold futures closed 0.5% higher on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains.</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed higher on Friday, recovering from early losses and recording their fourth consecutive week of gains. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $8.30, or 0.46%, to settle at $1,815.50 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 1.36% this week, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains and the longest winning streak since December 31, 2021.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727570\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the inflation reduction bill.</b></a></p><p>The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 with 220 votes in favor and 207 against. The bill includes content such as addressing climate change and expanding healthcare coverage. The next step is for the bill to be signed into law by President Biden.</p><p><b>US Senate Democrats: SEC should step up efforts to crack down on insider trading by corporate executives.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, Warren and other Senate Democrats wrote to SEC Chairman Gary Jensler, stating that the SEC should act quickly to strengthen its rules and prevent situations where insiders can use insider information to trade with impunity from continuing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259357721\" target=\"_blank\"><b>US media: Former US President Trump is suspected of violating the Counterintelligence Act.</b></a></p><p>According to court records released on August 12 local time, federal law enforcement suspected former President Trump of violating the Espionage Act and other related laws, and therefore obtained a search warrant for his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1119741216\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Greenwoods Q2 US Stock Holdings: Beike Rises to Largest Holding, Alibaba and Pinduoduo Return to Top Ten Holdings</b></a><b></b></p><p>On Friday morning local time in the United States, Greenwoods, a well-known Chinese private equity firm, disclosed its holdings report (Form 13F) as of June 30. The fund also carried out significant portfolio reshuffling operations in the second quarter, when the market was volatile. According to the company's disclosure, Greenwood's total holdings at the end of the first quarter were US$2.244 billion, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, while the concentration of the top ten holdings remained at 78.18%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727587\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance more than tripled its holdings in NIO last quarter and reduced its holdings in Tesla.</b></a></p><p>Renaissance increased its holdings in Nio Automotive ADRs (by 229%).<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Class B shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>1,963 stocks, etc. Reduce holdings in Tesla, AMD, and Moderna.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>1,490 stocks, etc. Top holdings include Microsoft, Meta,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Chevron. Build a long position in Microsoft.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Application materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>706 stocks, etc. Amazon clearance sale<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>and Google C,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>pharmaceuticals,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>567 stocks, etc.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259150742\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another American retail giant is laying off employees! Report says Best Buy laid off 'hundreds' of employees in the past week</b></a></p><p>Media reports on Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter, indicated that Best Buy, the largest consumer electronics retailer in the United States, is laying off employees across the country to cut costs and increase profits. The report states that Best Buy laid off \"hundreds\" of employees across the United States in the past week. The company reduced the number of employees at its retail stores, while also cutting some positions for employees who help customers plan and purchase home entertainment layouts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259747544\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Peloton, an interactive fitness platform, announced nearly 800 layoffs, closed a large number of stores, and raised product prices.</b></a></p><p>Peloton, the world’s largest interactive fitness platform, told employees on Friday that it will lay off about 780 employees, close a large number of retail stores, and raise the prices of some equipment to reduce costs and achieve profitability. The company did not specify how many of its 86 retail stores it plans to close, but said it plans to “aggressively” reduce them starting in 2023.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2258719062\" target=\"_blank\"><b>What does it mean that five Chinese companies have announced the initiation of delisting from the US market? What impact will it have?</b></a></p><p>Regarding Chinese concept stocks, five Chinese companies—PetroChina, Sinopec, China Life, Aluminum Corporation of China, and Shanghai Petrochemical—announced the delisting of their depositary shares from the New York Stock Exchange. In response, the New York Stock Exchange stated that it \"has no comment\" on the matter. As of Friday's close, PetroChina closed down 1.65%, Sinopec down 1.8%, Aluminum Corporation of China down 0.76%, China Life down 1.46%, and Shanghai Petrochemical down 1.06%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for the fourth consecutive week! Latest 13F holdings revealed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose for the fourth consecutive week! Latest 13F holdings revealed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-13 08:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising for the fourth consecutive week; The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the Inflation Reduction Act; Well-known institutions Greenwoods and Renaissance have revealed their Q2 US stock holdings; Five Chinese companies announce delisting from the US stock market >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising for the fourth consecutive week.</b></p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 424.38 points, or 1.27%, to 33,761.05. The Nasdaq rose 267.27 points, or 2.09%, to 13,047.19. The S&P 500 rose 72.88 points, or 1.73%, to 4,280.15. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.92%, the Nasdaq Composite up 3.08%, and the S&P 500 up 3.26%. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 recorded their fourth consecutive week of gains.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.39%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 0.92%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.70%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 0.23%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.19%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 0.11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell 0.67%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell 0.81%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>It fell 1.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 1.65%.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.4% on Friday.</b></p><p>The market expects the disruption to crude oil supply in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to be short-term, while concerns about an economic recession are casting a shadow over the demand outlook. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $2.25, or 2.4%, at $92.09 a barrel.</p><p><b>New York gold futures closed 0.5% higher on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains.</b></p><p>New York gold futures prices closed higher on Friday, recovering from early losses and recording their fourth consecutive week of gains. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $8.30, or 0.46%, to settle at $1,815.50 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 1.36% this week, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains and the longest winning streak since December 31, 2021.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727570\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the inflation reduction bill.</b></a></p><p>The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 with 220 votes in favor and 207 against. The bill includes content such as addressing climate change and expanding healthcare coverage. The next step is for the bill to be signed into law by President Biden.</p><p><b>US Senate Democrats: SEC should step up efforts to crack down on insider trading by corporate executives.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, Warren and other Senate Democrats wrote to SEC Chairman Gary Jensler, stating that the SEC should act quickly to strengthen its rules and prevent situations where insiders can use insider information to trade with impunity from continuing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259357721\" target=\"_blank\"><b>US media: Former US President Trump is suspected of violating the Counterintelligence Act.</b></a></p><p>According to court records released on August 12 local time, federal law enforcement suspected former President Trump of violating the Espionage Act and other related laws, and therefore obtained a search warrant for his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1119741216\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Greenwoods Q2 US Stock Holdings: Beike Rises to Largest Holding, Alibaba and Pinduoduo Return to Top Ten Holdings</b></a><b></b></p><p>On Friday morning local time in the United States, Greenwoods, a well-known Chinese private equity firm, disclosed its holdings report (Form 13F) as of June 30. The fund also carried out significant portfolio reshuffling operations in the second quarter, when the market was volatile. According to the company's disclosure, Greenwood's total holdings at the end of the first quarter were US$2.244 billion, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, while the concentration of the top ten holdings remained at 78.18%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727587\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance more than tripled its holdings in NIO last quarter and reduced its holdings in Tesla.</b></a></p><p>Renaissance increased its holdings in Nio Automotive ADRs (by 229%).<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Class B shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>1,963 stocks, etc. Reduce holdings in Tesla, AMD, and Moderna.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>1,490 stocks, etc. Top holdings include Microsoft, Meta,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Chevron. Build a long position in Microsoft.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Application materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>706 stocks, etc. Amazon clearance sale<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>and Google C,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>pharmaceuticals,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>567 stocks, etc.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259150742\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another American retail giant is laying off employees! Report says Best Buy laid off 'hundreds' of employees in the past week</b></a></p><p>Media reports on Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter, indicated that Best Buy, the largest consumer electronics retailer in the United States, is laying off employees across the country to cut costs and increase profits. The report states that Best Buy laid off \"hundreds\" of employees across the United States in the past week. The company reduced the number of employees at its retail stores, while also cutting some positions for employees who help customers plan and purchase home entertainment layouts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259747544\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Peloton, an interactive fitness platform, announced nearly 800 layoffs, closed a large number of stores, and raised product prices.</b></a></p><p>Peloton, the world’s largest interactive fitness platform, told employees on Friday that it will lay off about 780 employees, close a large number of retail stores, and raise the prices of some equipment to reduce costs and achieve profitability. The company did not specify how many of its 86 retail stores it plans to close, but said it plans to “aggressively” reduce them starting in 2023.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2258719062\" target=\"_blank\"><b>What does it mean that five Chinese companies have announced the initiation of delisting from the US market? What impact will it have?</b></a></p><p>Regarding Chinese concept stocks, five Chinese companies—PetroChina, Sinopec, China Life, Aluminum Corporation of China, and Shanghai Petrochemical—announced the delisting of their depositary shares from the New York Stock Exchange. In response, the New York Stock Exchange stated that it \"has no comment\" on the matter. As of Friday's close, PetroChina closed down 1.65%, Sinopec down 1.8%, Aluminum Corporation of China down 0.76%, China Life down 1.46%, and Shanghai Petrochemical down 1.06%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172206517","content_text":"美股收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨；美国国会众议院投票通过通胀削减法案；知名机构景林、文艺复兴Q2美股持仓曝光；5家中企宣布启动美股退市>>>海外市场收盘：美股周五收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨美股周五收高，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。道指涨424.38点，涨幅为1.27%，报33761.05点；纳指涨267.27点，涨幅为2.09%，报13047.19点；标普500指数涨72.88点，涨幅为1.73%，报4280.15点。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅，道指上涨2.92%，纳指上涨3.08%，标普500指数上涨3.26%。纳指与标普500指数均录得连续第四周上涨。热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一热门中概股涨跌不一，蔚来涨1.39%，新东方涨0.92%，百度涨0.70%，腾讯音乐涨0.23%，京东涨0.19%，阿里巴巴跌0.11%，理想汽车跌0.67%，小鹏汽车跌0.81%，好未来跌1.07%，拼多多跌1.65%。周五美国WTI原油期货收跌2.4%市场预期美国墨西哥湾的原油供应中断将是短期的，而对经济衰退的担忧使需求前景蒙上阴影。纽约商品交易所9月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌2.25美元，跌幅为2.4%，收于每桶92.09美元。周五纽约黄金期货收高0.5%，本周金价录得连续第四周上涨纽约黄金期货价格周五收高，摆脱了早间的跌幅，并录得连续第四周上涨。纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货上涨8.3美元，涨幅为0.46%，报收于每盎司1815.50美元。本周黄金期货价格累涨1.36%，录得连续第四周上涨，创2021年12月31以来的最长连涨纪录。国际宏观美国国会众议院投票通过通胀削减法案美国众议院以220票赞成、207票反对的投票结果通过2022年通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act）。该法案的内容包括应对气候变化和扩大医疗保健覆盖范围等。下一步法案将由总统拜登签字正式生效。美参议院民主党人：SEC应加大力度打击企业高管内幕交易当地时间周五，沃伦等参议院民主党人致信SEC主席加里·詹斯勒称，SEC应该迅速采取行动，加强其规则，不能允许企业内部人士利用内幕信息进行交易，却不用受惩罚的情况继续发生。美媒：美国前总统特朗普涉嫌违反《反间谍法》根据当地时间8月12日公布的法庭记录显示，联邦执法部门怀疑前总统特朗普违反了《反间谍法》（Espionage Act）和其他相关法律，并因此获得对其佛罗里达州海湖庄园的搜查令。公司新闻景林Q2美股持仓：贝壳升至第一大重仓股 阿里、拼多多重回前十大持仓美国当地时间周五早晨，中国知名私募景林披露了截至6月30日的持仓报告（13F表），在市场剧烈波动的二季度基金也展开了明显的换仓操作。根据公司披露，一季度末景林整体持仓规模为22.44亿美元，较前一季度略有下滑，前十大持仓的集中度维持在78.18%。文艺复兴上季度对蔚来持仓增加逾两倍，减持特斯拉文艺复兴增持蔚来汽车ADR（增持达229%）、雪佛龙、伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股、马拉松石油等1963只股票。减持特斯拉、AMD、莫德纳、富国银行等1490只股票。重仓股包括微软、Meta、苹果、雪佛龙。建仓做多微软、高盛、应用材料、花旗等706只股票。清仓亚马逊、谷歌A和谷歌C、辉瑞制药、高通等567只股票。又一家美国零售巨头裁员！报道称百思买过去一周裁员“数百人”媒体周五援引知情人士的话报道称，美国最大消费电子零售商百思买正在美国各地裁员，以削减成本并提高利润。报道称，百思买过去一周在全美范围内裁员“数百人”。该公司减少了其零售店的员工人数，同时还削减了一些帮助客户规划和购买家庭娱乐布局的员工的职位。互动健身平台Peloton宣布裁员近800人，关闭大量门店并提高产品价格全球最大互动健身平台Peloton周五告诉员工，该公司将裁员约780人、关闭大量零售门店，并提高部分设备的价格，以降低成本并实现盈利。该公司没有具体说明计划在86家零售店中关闭多少家，但表示计划从2023年开始“积极”减少。5家中国企业宣布启动自美退市，意味着什幺？有何影响？中概股方面，中国石油、中国石化、中国人寿、中国铝业、上海石化5家中企宣布，将其存托股自纽交所退市。对此，纽约证券交易所表示，对此事“不予置评”。截至周五收盘，中国石油收跌1.65%，中国石化跌1.8%，中国铝业跌0.76%，中国人寿下跌1.46%，上海石化跌1.06%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904031246,"gmtCreate":1659955654188,"gmtModify":1703476344039,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904031246","repostId":"1197273564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906089816,"gmtCreate":1659453735438,"gmtModify":1705980520279,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906089816","repostId":"685942378","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":685942378,"gmtCreate":1659324600000,"gmtModify":1676533404243,"author":{"id":"9000000000000013","authorId":"9000000000000013","name":"时代之","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000013","idStr":"9000000000000013"},"themes":[],"title":"哎！又回去了","htmlText":"每個工作日11:30，我們準時相見&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; ✎昨天，我們公佈了7月的採購經理人指數PMI，只有49，再次低於50，跌回了衰退區間。這意味着6月份的反彈戛然而止。4月和5月，我們還可以說是疫情導致，那麼7月呢？放心，經濟學家們總能找到解釋，他們說是因爲高溫，導致能源和電力消耗過高。實際上，比起去年11月缺煤的時候，我們的電力還沒有那麼緊張。去年電力最緊張是時候，很多城市拉閘限電，相信大家都看到過一篇\"限電是一盤大旗”的文章，當時我還專門寫文章反駁過。其實，對於7月PMI這樣的結果，我並不感到意外。之前7月上半月兩個重磅市場數據出來的時候，就大概可以推算出來了。第一個是汽車銷售增速。6月份因爲上海宣佈恢復正常經濟秩序，加上600億購置稅補貼，以及各地自行出臺的刺激措施，汽車銷量環比大幅增長。但是在7月上旬，銷量增速就下來了，整個市場回到了5月前的平均水平。另外一個就是房地產的銷售數據，一些第三方研究機構，基本上每週都會公佈一些大城市的成交數據。在7月前三週，這個數據，也跌回到了5月份的水平。至於消費，或者說服務業，今年從來就沒有大幅好轉，所以本身也就沒有什麼指望，我們大力押注的還是新能源、汽車和房地產，甚至連基建都沒有發力。目前，我們的貨幣政策，已經兩個月沒有變化了，以前每個季度降息或者降準一次的節奏，不知道是否會打破。這是一個讓我感到比較迷茫的地方。現在美聯儲的加息節奏預計會放緩，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示通脹見頂（這次是非常有可能不會再次打臉的），10年期美債收益和我們的10年期國債收益已經解除了倒掛。以前倒掛的時候，我們都可以保持寬鬆節奏，現在本來是空間進一步打開了，但是節奏似乎反而放緩了----央行近一個月，都是不斷通過小規模的逆回購，在收緊短期的流動性，這讓我極爲不解。另外，上週的重磅會議上，對疫情防控和經濟發展定調了，原則上是統","listText":"每個工作日11:30，我們準時相見&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; ✎昨天，我們公佈了7月的採購經理人指數PMI，只有49，再次低於50，跌回了衰退區間。這意味着6月份的反彈戛然而止。4月和5月，我們還可以說是疫情導致，那麼7月呢？放心，經濟學家們總能找到解釋，他們說是因爲高溫，導致能源和電力消耗過高。實際上，比起去年11月缺煤的時候，我們的電力還沒有那麼緊張。去年電力最緊張是時候，很多城市拉閘限電，相信大家都看到過一篇\"限電是一盤大旗”的文章，當時我還專門寫文章反駁過。其實，對於7月PMI這樣的結果，我並不感到意外。之前7月上半月兩個重磅市場數據出來的時候，就大概可以推算出來了。第一個是汽車銷售增速。6月份因爲上海宣佈恢復正常經濟秩序，加上600億購置稅補貼，以及各地自行出臺的刺激措施，汽車銷量環比大幅增長。但是在7月上旬，銷量增速就下來了，整個市場回到了5月前的平均水平。另外一個就是房地產的銷售數據，一些第三方研究機構，基本上每週都會公佈一些大城市的成交數據。在7月前三週，這個數據，也跌回到了5月份的水平。至於消費，或者說服務業，今年從來就沒有大幅好轉，所以本身也就沒有什麼指望，我們大力押注的還是新能源、汽車和房地產，甚至連基建都沒有發力。目前，我們的貨幣政策，已經兩個月沒有變化了，以前每個季度降息或者降準一次的節奏，不知道是否會打破。這是一個讓我感到比較迷茫的地方。現在美聯儲的加息節奏預計會放緩，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示通脹見頂（這次是非常有可能不會再次打臉的），10年期美債收益和我們的10年期國債收益已經解除了倒掛。以前倒掛的時候，我們都可以保持寬鬆節奏，現在本來是空間進一步打開了，但是節奏似乎反而放緩了----央行近一個月，都是不斷通過小規模的逆回購，在收緊短期的流動性，這讓我極爲不解。另外，上週的重磅會議上，對疫情防控和經濟發展定調了，原則上是統","text":"每個工作日11:30，我們準時相見 ✎昨天，我們公佈了7月的採購經理人指數PMI，只有49，再次低於50，跌回了衰退區間。這意味着6月份的反彈戛然而止。4月和5月，我們還可以說是疫情導致，那麼7月呢？放心，經濟學家們總能找到解釋，他們說是因爲高溫，導致能源和電力消耗過高。實際上，比起去年11月缺煤的時候，我們的電力還沒有那麼緊張。去年電力最緊張是時候，很多城市拉閘限電，相信大家都看到過一篇\"限電是一盤大旗”的文章，當時我還專門寫文章反駁過。其實，對於7月PMI這樣的結果，我並不感到意外。之前7月上半月兩個重磅市場數據出來的時候，就大概可以推算出來了。第一個是汽車銷售增速。6月份因爲上海宣佈恢復正常經濟秩序，加上600億購置稅補貼，以及各地自行出臺的刺激措施，汽車銷量環比大幅增長。但是在7月上旬，銷量增速就下來了，整個市場回到了5月前的平均水平。另外一個就是房地產的銷售數據，一些第三方研究機構，基本上每週都會公佈一些大城市的成交數據。在7月前三週，這個數據，也跌回到了5月份的水平。至於消費，或者說服務業，今年從來就沒有大幅好轉，所以本身也就沒有什麼指望，我們大力押注的還是新能源、汽車和房地產，甚至連基建都沒有發力。目前，我們的貨幣政策，已經兩個月沒有變化了，以前每個季度降息或者降準一次的節奏，不知道是否會打破。這是一個讓我感到比較迷茫的地方。現在美聯儲的加息節奏預計會放緩，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示通脹見頂（這次是非常有可能不會再次打臉的），10年期美債收益和我們的10年期國債收益已經解除了倒掛。以前倒掛的時候，我們都可以保持寬鬆節奏，現在本來是空間進一步打開了，但是節奏似乎反而放緩了----央行近一個月，都是不斷通過小規模的逆回購，在收緊短期的流動性，這讓我極爲不解。另外，上週的重磅會議上，對疫情防控和經濟發展定調了，原則上是統","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8cc6ce16a94e3a872ef523025ab611","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/685942378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074728382,"gmtCreate":1658413894246,"gmtModify":1676536155090,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074728382","repostId":"1196821163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196821163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658326752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196821163?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-20 22:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Did you really throw it away? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fishtail\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196821163","media":"表外表里","summary":"芒格对比亚迪的偏爱，没能经得住考验。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Munger vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Their preferences failed to withstand the test.</p><p>According to data disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 225 million shares of BYD were transferred to Citibank on July 11, an amount exactly equivalent to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>At the end of 2021, the shareholding ratios of BYD among the top holdings were consistent.</p><p>Tens of billions of yuan in positions were moved from safes to roadside stalls at the market, appearing to be in a \"runaway\" mode.</p><p>However, the market seems to have doubts about whether Munger is the culprit behind this incident. After all, Munger's passion for BYD has always been evident to all.</p><p>In 2008, Munger made Buffett's third investment recommendation in 51 years of knowing him, and the investment target was BYD.</p><p>Since entering the investment market, Munger and Buffett have repeatedly endorsed BYD in person, at shareholder meetings, and on social media.</p><p>For example, when Munger attended the Daily Journal's annual meeting in 2018, he said: \"BYD is very important and is now an extremely successful company.\"</p><p>When asked whether he would sell BYD stock, he stated unequivocally: \"I will sell BYD.\" I don't think that's my style. BYD is a member of the Munger family, and I think I'll take it to my grave.</p><p>It's somewhat \"unbelievable\" that such a \"deeply affectionate\" image would change his mind. But in the business world, everyone is a thousand-year-old fox, so where is the innocent lotus flower?</p><p>As can be seen, since buying BYD at HK$8 per share in 2008, Munger has held BYD for 14 years and has achieved a return of nearly 36 times. Let's return to the investment itself and see if it's time to sell BYD.</p><p><b>Having survived the first venture capital exit peak, betting on high sales will pay off.</b></p><p>“When you bet on a company like BYD, you’re not just betting on BYD, you’re betting that something is about to be proven,” Munger said at the 2010 annual meeting, explaining the logic behind investing in BYD.</p><p>The \"something\" he mentioned is precisely the underlying logic behind early-stage investment in the project—the track, the horse, the rider. When applied to BYD, it refers to the new energy track, BYD, and Wang Chuanfu's team.</p><p>In other words, Munger's initial intention in investing in BYD was a venture capital investment.</p><p>In an interview that same year, Munger's old friend Warren Buffett praised him, saying, \"BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu is an extraordinary person, and I have high hopes for their management team.\"</p><p>However, whether one's judgment is accurate or not ultimately depends on the high returns. Therefore, the timing of venture capital exit is important.</p><p>From the perspective of the technological development stages of the Gartner curve, venture capital has two optimal exit points:</p><p>The first high is the overheating period before sliding into a trough, and the second high is the climbing period before entering a plateau.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e682d0450f3dd4b762988586258a6c87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Following this pattern, from 2008 to 2010, against the backdrop of enthusiastic market expectations for new energy technologies, BYD became a \"leader\" in the new energy sector by launching the world's first new energy vehicle that does not rely on professional charging stations—the F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle—and the first batch of pure electric vehicles for the masses, the E6.</p><p>As a result, its share price rose tenfold from HK$8 to a high of HK$80.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639d973144f097be1d3b93575a737200\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, around 2010, BYD was at its first peak—the overheating period before sliding into a trough.</p><p>However, Munger did not withdraw at the time, but continued to hold the shares, citing BYD's focus on the huge new energy vehicle market, which gave him confidence in BYD.</p><p>As luck would have it, they were indeed right. Ten years later, the new energy vehicle industry shifted from the B2B to the B2C era, and sales rose rapidly.</p><p>After several rounds of iterations, BYD's battery and hybrid technologies have been successfully implemented and applied, achieving sales volume.</p><p>As shown in the image below, sales of models such as the BYD Han, which was equipped with a blade battery in 2020, and the Qin Plus, Song Plus, and Tang, which were equipped with the DM-i super hybrid in 2021, increased rapidly after their launch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41807d4a798b7b6bf0a84df8fd4af570\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This also means that with the rise in technology adoption and the acceleration of user penetration, BYD is currently in the stage of reaching its second peak.</p><p>Whether the company can ultimately reach its peak depends mainly on two aspects: first, whether the company has more possibilities and space; Secondly, whether the current market has priced in a relatively mature stage.</p><p>Regarding the first condition, there is currently no clear path for the large-scale application of BYD technology in the short to medium term:</p><p>The semiconductor sector, which is in high demand, mainly produces electronic control and industrial chips such as IGBTs and MCUs. It started relatively late and its reliability lags significantly behind that of major international manufacturers. advanced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>We have not yet ventured into driving chips and digital cockpit chips.</p><p>Although e-atomization has broken through technological barriers in the mobile phone OEM business, the market space is small and the implementation time is uncertain.</p><p>This brings the pressure of judgment to the second condition. So, what exactly does BYD's current stock price reflect?</p><p><b>Venture capital logic has come true; we've secured the most lucrative opportunity for growth stocks.</b></p><p>Data shows that the new energy industry is still in a stage of accelerated penetration. From June 2021 to June 2022, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased from 14.6% to 27.4%.</p><p>At the same time, BYD's sales also grew rapidly, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 134,000 units in June this year, ranking first among brands in its segment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0363a0dca6360b43082d07202de7defc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, with its huge industry potential and rapid development, many people believe that BYD is undoubtedly the \"best\" growth stock.</p><p>In the short to medium term, the outlook for earnings realization is relatively optimistic.</p><p>During the 2021 annual report conference call, management expected sales in 2022 to be conservatively estimated at 1.5 million vehicles, aiming to reach the annual target of 2 million vehicles.</p><p>The logical support for this expectation is:</p><p>BYD is currently still in the peak period of technology realization, and there will be policy stimulus in the second half of the year (such as the promotion of new energy vehicles in rural areas).</p><p>Previously, sales were constrained by production capacity and could not be released on a large scale: Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed at the shareholders' meeting last month that BYD currently has more than 500,000 orders on hand.</p><p>The company also has several reserve models awaiting delivery, such as the Seal on the e3.0 platform, which received 22,600 orders within 7 hours of the pre-sale opening. The supplier recently revealed that the current orders are about 110,000 units.</p><p>With the commissioning of the new factory (Hefei factory) in the second half of this year, sales will gradually be released.</p><p>Of course, this is only a short-term realization.</p><p>The core of growth stocks is to focus on the sustainability of earnings realization over a certain period of time. To determine this, we need to understand the market's current pricing of BYD and what stage it has reached.</p><p>By breaking down BYD's business structure (as shown in the figure below), we can calculate using the segmental valuation method that the valuation of BYD's automotive segment is approximately 742.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9523aebf143684b78bd6050ec35d3c9c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Note: (1) BYD's market capitalization was selected as of July 20, 2022, and the average of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks was selected; (2) For the battery, mobile phone and semiconductor sectors, the valuation is based on the recent average valuation of securities firms.</p><p>Based on this valuation, we reasonably assume that BYD's net profit margin can reach 10% and that the average revenue per vehicle in the future is 180,000 yuan. Assuming a PE ratio of 10-20 times, we can conclude that the market's sales expectations for BYD are 4.12 million/2.75 million/2.06 million vehicles.</p><p>The sales figure of 4.12 million vehicles even exceeded the market's sales forecast for 2025. In other words, from a static perspective, the market's current pricing of BYD overdraws its sales volume for the next three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714012c42981478a7604ebbfcc5c6f7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Note: (1) The valuation assumptions are based on the historical PE range of established automakers; (2) BYD is currently focusing on autonomous driving and intelligentization, but has not shown the strength of software subscription SaaS. PE will continue to be a traditional car company. (3) In 2021, BYD's average revenue per vehicle was 148,000 yuan. With the launch of mid-to-high-end models, it is highly certain that the average revenue per vehicle will reach 180,000 yuan.</p><p>Extended to a three-year timeframe, given the dynamic changes in industry prosperity, policies, and competitive environment, how certain is BYD's ability to fulfill its obligations?</p><p>Let's calculate that, reasonably assuming passenger vehicle sales reach 25 million units by 2025, BYD's market share of 4.12 million units would be 16.5%. (Even with a sales expectation of 2.75 million at a PE ratio of 15, the corresponding market share still exceeds 10%)</p><p>Looking at the US market, in recent years, four automakers have achieved a market share of more than 10%, which is a relatively high probability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1410aeb7dedb883046086ad960d41c2e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, looking at the current Chinese market, the changes in the passenger vehicle market share of mainstream domestic automakers since 2013 show that among the niche brands, only FAW-Volkswagen had a market share of more than 10% in 2020, and in just one year, its market share returned to below 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df36cbba4a4aac7e9b47032c4122d2d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This shows that achieving a market share of over 10% in the domestic market is by no means easy. If we were to quantify BYD's certainty in this area, the probability referring to the above changes would be approximately 1/17.</p><p>Besides the issue of sales delivery, the 10% net profit margin optimistically assumed earlier is actually very difficult to achieve.</p><p>Of the world's most established automakers, only Ford and Volkswagen have each achieved a gross profit margin of over 10% in the last decade or so.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae86894e7b55e18083aa5896deb9ffe3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among domestic independent brands, those with relatively good net profit margins are:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>In the 16 years from 2005 to 2021, there were 10 years when the net profit margin exceeded 10%.</p><p>But this was all before 2017, when they were reaping the early benefits of the SUV market. Subsequently, intensified market competition coupled with the low prosperity of the automotive industry made it difficult to maintain a gross profit margin of over 10%.</p><p>For other domestic brands, the situation of net profit margins exceeding 10% is also not sustainable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278878cf91bf41602fc206626a065512\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on this, and considering the most optimistic assumption and historical experience, the probability of BYD's net profit margin exceeding 10% is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>The probability is about 5/8, while the probability of a market share exceeding 10% is 1/17, and the probability of both items coming true at the same time is only 3.7%.</p><p>In other words, BYD's current pricing has reached a relatively mature stage, indicating that it has most likely reached its second peak. This means that Munger's venture capital logic has ended, and growth stock investing has reached its most lucrative phase.</p><p>However, this pricing does not mean the end of investment opportunities, as it only reflects the eve of the transition from \"growth to value investing\".</p><p><b>The automotive industry is not a \"long and snowy slope,\" and the fishtail stage may not be suitable for value investing.</b></p><p>As we all know, an excellent target for value investing is a money-making machine with \"fixed investment and unlimited returns,\" and the investment logic is as follows:</p><p>Buy relatively good companies with a certain margin of safety. Their products have long life cycles, do not require large-scale capital investment, and have low bargaining power in production factors, thus enabling them to achieve good profitability.</p><p>So, is BYD such a target?</p><p>As a high-priced consumer good, automobiles have a certain service life, which is especially short in China. Besides meeting national annual inspection requirements, the reasons for changing cars also include the demand for changing cars brought about by the improvement of domestic consumption levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35ed93a982b1e550533906a33cdc086\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In response to this replacement demand, automakers have been putting in a lot of effort to launch new products, gradually forming the industry rule of \"updating and redesigning every year, replacing every three years, and innovating technologically every five years\".</p><p>Moreover, during the current period of industry transformation, the level of new energy and intelligentization is upgrading rapidly, driving R&D investment to remain high. As a result, R&D expenses account for 5%-8% of revenue for traditional automakers, and even more so for emerging electric vehicle companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfba5d8516d9b98eb8c70ce054a83441\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With constant competition and innovation, product lifecycles will be short, making it difficult for value investors to see it as a good business.</p><p>However, even if the model development successfully enters the mass production stage, it also puts forward updated requirements for fixed assets such as production lines—expanding new production lines and renovating old production lines.</p><p>Munger once said: There are two types of businesses in the world. The first type earns 12% a year, and you can take all the profits at the end of the year. The second type also earns 12% per year, but you have to reinvest the money you earn and then point to all the factory equipment and tell the shareholders: This is your profit.</p><p>From this perspective, the situation of BYD, or rather automobile manufacturers, fits the second type of business.</p><p>Munger's attitude is: I hate the second kind of business.</p><p>The reason for such aversion may be that this business model requires constant capital investment, but the ROI is not attractive.</p><p>After all, in the eyes of Munger's old friend Warren Buffett,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>A gross profit margin of 21% pales in comparison to truly high-quality companies.</p><p>Returning to BYD, it stopped producing gasoline-powered vehicles in March of this year and has since focused on pure electric and plug-in hybrid businesses.</p><p>This means that if the capacity expansion plan for new models needs to be implemented quickly, then high capital expenditures will be unavoidable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40d12771d271c56eaf640a6bdb04176\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fixed assets originally used for gasoline vehicle production face a higher risk of fixed asset impairment, which will also \"eat up\" BYD's profits to some extent.</p><p>Large amounts of Capex and D&A are only one aspect; there are other troubles as well.</p><p>Automakers don't have much bargaining power when it comes to labor production factors. (I won't go into European and American trade unions; I believe this is common sense.)</p><p>As can be seen, with the improvement of automakers' electrification and intelligentization levels, the upgrading of their talent structure, and the decline of the demographic dividend, the proportion of employee compensation in automakers' revenue has continued to rise since 2017.</p><p>BYD is no exception, with its employee compensation growing by 31% year-on-year in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ffd0f0e76157d5fddf634cef271d87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This rigid expenditure also has the problem of being difficult to adjust according to the industry's prosperity - when the industry's prosperity is rising, companies may not be able to retain outstanding talents without raising salaries, while when the prosperity is declining, it is difficult to implement salary reductions.</p><p>This could lead to an increase in the number of employees, but no significant improvement in per capita efficiency. As shown in the chart below, BYD's per capita net profit in 2021 decreased instead of increasing.</p><p>After a series of downsizing, the profit statement ended up being very thin. Taking 2021 as an example, the gross profit margin was only 13% and the net profit margin was less than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6daa6de627ed10ddf122d33b27c2ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Such returns clearly cannot satisfy the appetite of value investors.</p><p>In conclusion, the automotive industry is not a \"thick snow slope\". Compared with when Munger bought BYD, there is no longer a story of \"36 times return\" to tell, which may not be suitable for value investing logic.</p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p>At the Daily Journal shareholders' meeting early last year, Munger was still undeterred by the \"vortex\" and vigorously supported BYD:</p><p>“Some speculators in the Chinese market have driven up BYD’s stock price a bit, valuing it to the point of ‘nosebleeds.’ Smart venture capitalists would usually sell half of it, but I wouldn’t do that because I like the company.”</p><p>From that perspective, Bamang did have a legitimate reason to continue holding it, after all, the DM-i hybrid technology that BYD held at that time had not yet been fully realized.</p><p>Now, with the expectations of new energy vehicle technology being realized and the venture capital logic basically being fulfilled, growth stocks have also reaped the most lucrative opportunities. However, the automotive sector is not a \"snowy slope\" and is not suitable for continuing to hold on to based on the logic of value investing.</p><p>Therefore, given the current high stock price, the answer to what choice Munger will make is self-evident.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1573719481907","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Did you really throw it away? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fishtail\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDid you really throw it away? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fishtail\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">表外表里</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-20 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Munger vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Their preferences failed to withstand the test.</p><p>According to data disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 225 million shares of BYD were transferred to Citibank on July 11, an amount exactly equivalent to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>At the end of 2021, the shareholding ratios of BYD among the top holdings were consistent.</p><p>Tens of billions of yuan in positions were moved from safes to roadside stalls at the market, appearing to be in a \"runaway\" mode.</p><p>However, the market seems to have doubts about whether Munger is the culprit behind this incident. After all, Munger's passion for BYD has always been evident to all.</p><p>In 2008, Munger made Buffett's third investment recommendation in 51 years of knowing him, and the investment target was BYD.</p><p>Since entering the investment market, Munger and Buffett have repeatedly endorsed BYD in person, at shareholder meetings, and on social media.</p><p>For example, when Munger attended the Daily Journal's annual meeting in 2018, he said: \"BYD is very important and is now an extremely successful company.\"</p><p>When asked whether he would sell BYD stock, he stated unequivocally: \"I will sell BYD.\" I don't think that's my style. BYD is a member of the Munger family, and I think I'll take it to my grave.</p><p>It's somewhat \"unbelievable\" that such a \"deeply affectionate\" image would change his mind. But in the business world, everyone is a thousand-year-old fox, so where is the innocent lotus flower?</p><p>As can be seen, since buying BYD at HK$8 per share in 2008, Munger has held BYD for 14 years and has achieved a return of nearly 36 times. Let's return to the investment itself and see if it's time to sell BYD.</p><p><b>Having survived the first venture capital exit peak, betting on high sales will pay off.</b></p><p>“When you bet on a company like BYD, you’re not just betting on BYD, you’re betting that something is about to be proven,” Munger said at the 2010 annual meeting, explaining the logic behind investing in BYD.</p><p>The \"something\" he mentioned is precisely the underlying logic behind early-stage investment in the project—the track, the horse, the rider. When applied to BYD, it refers to the new energy track, BYD, and Wang Chuanfu's team.</p><p>In other words, Munger's initial intention in investing in BYD was a venture capital investment.</p><p>In an interview that same year, Munger's old friend Warren Buffett praised him, saying, \"BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu is an extraordinary person, and I have high hopes for their management team.\"</p><p>However, whether one's judgment is accurate or not ultimately depends on the high returns. Therefore, the timing of venture capital exit is important.</p><p>From the perspective of the technological development stages of the Gartner curve, venture capital has two optimal exit points:</p><p>The first high is the overheating period before sliding into a trough, and the second high is the climbing period before entering a plateau.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e682d0450f3dd4b762988586258a6c87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Following this pattern, from 2008 to 2010, against the backdrop of enthusiastic market expectations for new energy technologies, BYD became a \"leader\" in the new energy sector by launching the world's first new energy vehicle that does not rely on professional charging stations—the F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle—and the first batch of pure electric vehicles for the masses, the E6.</p><p>As a result, its share price rose tenfold from HK$8 to a high of HK$80.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639d973144f097be1d3b93575a737200\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, around 2010, BYD was at its first peak—the overheating period before sliding into a trough.</p><p>However, Munger did not withdraw at the time, but continued to hold the shares, citing BYD's focus on the huge new energy vehicle market, which gave him confidence in BYD.</p><p>As luck would have it, they were indeed right. Ten years later, the new energy vehicle industry shifted from the B2B to the B2C era, and sales rose rapidly.</p><p>After several rounds of iterations, BYD's battery and hybrid technologies have been successfully implemented and applied, achieving sales volume.</p><p>As shown in the image below, sales of models such as the BYD Han, which was equipped with a blade battery in 2020, and the Qin Plus, Song Plus, and Tang, which were equipped with the DM-i super hybrid in 2021, increased rapidly after their launch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41807d4a798b7b6bf0a84df8fd4af570\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This also means that with the rise in technology adoption and the acceleration of user penetration, BYD is currently in the stage of reaching its second peak.</p><p>Whether the company can ultimately reach its peak depends mainly on two aspects: first, whether the company has more possibilities and space; Secondly, whether the current market has priced in a relatively mature stage.</p><p>Regarding the first condition, there is currently no clear path for the large-scale application of BYD technology in the short to medium term:</p><p>The semiconductor sector, which is in high demand, mainly produces electronic control and industrial chips such as IGBTs and MCUs. It started relatively late and its reliability lags significantly behind that of major international manufacturers. advanced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>We have not yet ventured into driving chips and digital cockpit chips.</p><p>Although e-atomization has broken through technological barriers in the mobile phone OEM business, the market space is small and the implementation time is uncertain.</p><p>This brings the pressure of judgment to the second condition. So, what exactly does BYD's current stock price reflect?</p><p><b>Venture capital logic has come true; we've secured the most lucrative opportunity for growth stocks.</b></p><p>Data shows that the new energy industry is still in a stage of accelerated penetration. From June 2021 to June 2022, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased from 14.6% to 27.4%.</p><p>At the same time, BYD's sales also grew rapidly, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 134,000 units in June this year, ranking first among brands in its segment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0363a0dca6360b43082d07202de7defc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, with its huge industry potential and rapid development, many people believe that BYD is undoubtedly the \"best\" growth stock.</p><p>In the short to medium term, the outlook for earnings realization is relatively optimistic.</p><p>During the 2021 annual report conference call, management expected sales in 2022 to be conservatively estimated at 1.5 million vehicles, aiming to reach the annual target of 2 million vehicles.</p><p>The logical support for this expectation is:</p><p>BYD is currently still in the peak period of technology realization, and there will be policy stimulus in the second half of the year (such as the promotion of new energy vehicles in rural areas).</p><p>Previously, sales were constrained by production capacity and could not be released on a large scale: Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed at the shareholders' meeting last month that BYD currently has more than 500,000 orders on hand.</p><p>The company also has several reserve models awaiting delivery, such as the Seal on the e3.0 platform, which received 22,600 orders within 7 hours of the pre-sale opening. The supplier recently revealed that the current orders are about 110,000 units.</p><p>With the commissioning of the new factory (Hefei factory) in the second half of this year, sales will gradually be released.</p><p>Of course, this is only a short-term realization.</p><p>The core of growth stocks is to focus on the sustainability of earnings realization over a certain period of time. To determine this, we need to understand the market's current pricing of BYD and what stage it has reached.</p><p>By breaking down BYD's business structure (as shown in the figure below), we can calculate using the segmental valuation method that the valuation of BYD's automotive segment is approximately 742.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9523aebf143684b78bd6050ec35d3c9c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Note: (1) BYD's market capitalization was selected as of July 20, 2022, and the average of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks was selected; (2) For the battery, mobile phone and semiconductor sectors, the valuation is based on the recent average valuation of securities firms.</p><p>Based on this valuation, we reasonably assume that BYD's net profit margin can reach 10% and that the average revenue per vehicle in the future is 180,000 yuan. Assuming a PE ratio of 10-20 times, we can conclude that the market's sales expectations for BYD are 4.12 million/2.75 million/2.06 million vehicles.</p><p>The sales figure of 4.12 million vehicles even exceeded the market's sales forecast for 2025. In other words, from a static perspective, the market's current pricing of BYD overdraws its sales volume for the next three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714012c42981478a7604ebbfcc5c6f7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Note: (1) The valuation assumptions are based on the historical PE range of established automakers; (2) BYD is currently focusing on autonomous driving and intelligentization, but has not shown the strength of software subscription SaaS. PE will continue to be a traditional car company. (3) In 2021, BYD's average revenue per vehicle was 148,000 yuan. With the launch of mid-to-high-end models, it is highly certain that the average revenue per vehicle will reach 180,000 yuan.</p><p>Extended to a three-year timeframe, given the dynamic changes in industry prosperity, policies, and competitive environment, how certain is BYD's ability to fulfill its obligations?</p><p>Let's calculate that, reasonably assuming passenger vehicle sales reach 25 million units by 2025, BYD's market share of 4.12 million units would be 16.5%. (Even with a sales expectation of 2.75 million at a PE ratio of 15, the corresponding market share still exceeds 10%)</p><p>Looking at the US market, in recent years, four automakers have achieved a market share of more than 10%, which is a relatively high probability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1410aeb7dedb883046086ad960d41c2e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, looking at the current Chinese market, the changes in the passenger vehicle market share of mainstream domestic automakers since 2013 show that among the niche brands, only FAW-Volkswagen had a market share of more than 10% in 2020, and in just one year, its market share returned to below 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df36cbba4a4aac7e9b47032c4122d2d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This shows that achieving a market share of over 10% in the domestic market is by no means easy. If we were to quantify BYD's certainty in this area, the probability referring to the above changes would be approximately 1/17.</p><p>Besides the issue of sales delivery, the 10% net profit margin optimistically assumed earlier is actually very difficult to achieve.</p><p>Of the world's most established automakers, only Ford and Volkswagen have each achieved a gross profit margin of over 10% in the last decade or so.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae86894e7b55e18083aa5896deb9ffe3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among domestic independent brands, those with relatively good net profit margins are:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>In the 16 years from 2005 to 2021, there were 10 years when the net profit margin exceeded 10%.</p><p>But this was all before 2017, when they were reaping the early benefits of the SUV market. Subsequently, intensified market competition coupled with the low prosperity of the automotive industry made it difficult to maintain a gross profit margin of over 10%.</p><p>For other domestic brands, the situation of net profit margins exceeding 10% is also not sustainable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278878cf91bf41602fc206626a065512\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on this, and considering the most optimistic assumption and historical experience, the probability of BYD's net profit margin exceeding 10% is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>The probability is about 5/8, while the probability of a market share exceeding 10% is 1/17, and the probability of both items coming true at the same time is only 3.7%.</p><p>In other words, BYD's current pricing has reached a relatively mature stage, indicating that it has most likely reached its second peak. This means that Munger's venture capital logic has ended, and growth stock investing has reached its most lucrative phase.</p><p>However, this pricing does not mean the end of investment opportunities, as it only reflects the eve of the transition from \"growth to value investing\".</p><p><b>The automotive industry is not a \"long and snowy slope,\" and the fishtail stage may not be suitable for value investing.</b></p><p>As we all know, an excellent target for value investing is a money-making machine with \"fixed investment and unlimited returns,\" and the investment logic is as follows:</p><p>Buy relatively good companies with a certain margin of safety. Their products have long life cycles, do not require large-scale capital investment, and have low bargaining power in production factors, thus enabling them to achieve good profitability.</p><p>So, is BYD such a target?</p><p>As a high-priced consumer good, automobiles have a certain service life, which is especially short in China. Besides meeting national annual inspection requirements, the reasons for changing cars also include the demand for changing cars brought about by the improvement of domestic consumption levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35ed93a982b1e550533906a33cdc086\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In response to this replacement demand, automakers have been putting in a lot of effort to launch new products, gradually forming the industry rule of \"updating and redesigning every year, replacing every three years, and innovating technologically every five years\".</p><p>Moreover, during the current period of industry transformation, the level of new energy and intelligentization is upgrading rapidly, driving R&D investment to remain high. As a result, R&D expenses account for 5%-8% of revenue for traditional automakers, and even more so for emerging electric vehicle companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfba5d8516d9b98eb8c70ce054a83441\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With constant competition and innovation, product lifecycles will be short, making it difficult for value investors to see it as a good business.</p><p>However, even if the model development successfully enters the mass production stage, it also puts forward updated requirements for fixed assets such as production lines—expanding new production lines and renovating old production lines.</p><p>Munger once said: There are two types of businesses in the world. The first type earns 12% a year, and you can take all the profits at the end of the year. The second type also earns 12% per year, but you have to reinvest the money you earn and then point to all the factory equipment and tell the shareholders: This is your profit.</p><p>From this perspective, the situation of BYD, or rather automobile manufacturers, fits the second type of business.</p><p>Munger's attitude is: I hate the second kind of business.</p><p>The reason for such aversion may be that this business model requires constant capital investment, but the ROI is not attractive.</p><p>After all, in the eyes of Munger's old friend Warren Buffett,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>A gross profit margin of 21% pales in comparison to truly high-quality companies.</p><p>Returning to BYD, it stopped producing gasoline-powered vehicles in March of this year and has since focused on pure electric and plug-in hybrid businesses.</p><p>This means that if the capacity expansion plan for new models needs to be implemented quickly, then high capital expenditures will be unavoidable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40d12771d271c56eaf640a6bdb04176\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fixed assets originally used for gasoline vehicle production face a higher risk of fixed asset impairment, which will also \"eat up\" BYD's profits to some extent.</p><p>Large amounts of Capex and D&A are only one aspect; there are other troubles as well.</p><p>Automakers don't have much bargaining power when it comes to labor production factors. (I won't go into European and American trade unions; I believe this is common sense.)</p><p>As can be seen, with the improvement of automakers' electrification and intelligentization levels, the upgrading of their talent structure, and the decline of the demographic dividend, the proportion of employee compensation in automakers' revenue has continued to rise since 2017.</p><p>BYD is no exception, with its employee compensation growing by 31% year-on-year in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ffd0f0e76157d5fddf634cef271d87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This rigid expenditure also has the problem of being difficult to adjust according to the industry's prosperity - when the industry's prosperity is rising, companies may not be able to retain outstanding talents without raising salaries, while when the prosperity is declining, it is difficult to implement salary reductions.</p><p>This could lead to an increase in the number of employees, but no significant improvement in per capita efficiency. As shown in the chart below, BYD's per capita net profit in 2021 decreased instead of increasing.</p><p>After a series of downsizing, the profit statement ended up being very thin. Taking 2021 as an example, the gross profit margin was only 13% and the net profit margin was less than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6daa6de627ed10ddf122d33b27c2ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Such returns clearly cannot satisfy the appetite of value investors.</p><p>In conclusion, the automotive industry is not a \"thick snow slope\". Compared with when Munger bought BYD, there is no longer a story of \"36 times return\" to tell, which may not be suitable for value investing logic.</p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p>At the Daily Journal shareholders' meeting early last year, Munger was still undeterred by the \"vortex\" and vigorously supported BYD:</p><p>“Some speculators in the Chinese market have driven up BYD’s stock price a bit, valuing it to the point of ‘nosebleeds.’ Smart venture capitalists would usually sell half of it, but I wouldn’t do that because I like the company.”</p><p>From that perspective, Bamang did have a legitimate reason to continue holding it, after all, the DM-i hybrid technology that BYD held at that time had not yet been fully realized.</p><p>Now, with the expectations of new energy vehicle technology being realized and the venture capital logic basically being fulfilled, growth stocks have also reaped the most lucrative opportunities. However, the automotive sector is not a \"snowy slope\" and is not suitable for continuing to hold on to based on the logic of value investing.</p><p>Therefore, given the current high stock price, the answer to what choice Munger will make is self-evident.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-07-20/doc-imizmscv2813638.shtml\">表外表里</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196365d7f35a249f047d609b02a115b6","relate_stocks":{"BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK1522":"燃料电池","BK1504":"苹果概念","00285":"比亚迪电子","BK1149":"通信设备","BK1515":"抗疫概念","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1540":"电池","01211":"比亚迪股份","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1580":"烟草概念","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1119":"汽车制造商","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-07-20/doc-imizmscv2813638.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196821163","content_text":"芒格对比亚迪的偏爱，没能经得住考验。港交所数据披露，比亚迪2.25亿股于7月11日被转让给花旗银行，数额刚好与伯克希尔2021年底重仓股中的比亚迪持股比例一致。几百亿的仓位，从保险柜里，挪到了菜市场路边摊，俨然一副“跑路”姿态。不过，市场似乎对这起事件背后的事主，是否是芒格存疑。毕竟，芒格一直以来对比亚迪的狂热，有目共睹。2008年，芒格给巴菲特打了认识51年来第3个建议投资的电话，投资标的就是比亚迪。切入投资后，芒格和巴菲特多次在现场、股东大会抑或是社交网络上，为比亚迪站台。比如，2018年芒格参加《每日期刊》（Daily Journal）年会时表示：“比亚迪很重要，现在是一家极其成功的公司。”而针对“会不会抛售比亚迪股票”的问题，他斩钉截铁表示：抛售比亚迪？我想这不是我的风格，比亚迪是芒格家族的一员，我想我会带着它进坟墓。这样一个“深情款款”的形象，说他会变心，多少让人“难以置信”。但商业世界里，大家都是千年的狐狸，哪来什么白莲花啊。可以看到，从2008年以每股8港元买入至今，芒格持有比亚迪14年，回报已近36倍。不妨回归投资本身，看看比亚迪到底是否到了要抛的时候？挺过第一个风投退出高点，赌销量高兑现“当你对像比亚迪这样的企业下注时，不仅仅是在对比亚迪下注，而是在下注赌某样东西即将会被证实。”2010年年会上，芒格如此阐述投资比亚迪的逻辑道。他所说的“某样东西”，正是早期投资对项目的底层逻辑——赛道、马、骑手，因应到比亚迪身上，就是新能源赛道、比亚迪和王传福团队。换句话说，芒格投资比亚迪，初衷是一笔风险投资。芒格的老伙计巴菲特，在同一年的访谈中曾盛赞称：“比亚迪CEO王传福是一个不平凡的人，我很看好他们的管理层。”不过，眼光到底准不准，最终还是要以高回报说话。因此，风险投资的退出时机很重要。从Gartner曲线的技术发展阶段来看，风险投资有两个最佳的退出时点：第一个高点是滑向低谷前的过热期，第二个高点是进入平稳期之前的爬坡期。参照这个规律，2008-2010年，市场对新能源技术预期火热背景下，比亚迪通过推出全球首款不依赖专业充电站的新能源汽车——F3DM双模电动车，以及首批面向大众的纯电动车E6，成了新能源赛道“领头羊”。籍由此，其股价从8港元涨到最高点80港元，翻了10倍。也就是说，2010年左右的比亚迪，处于第一个顶点——滑向低谷前的过热期。但当时的芒格并未退出，而是继续持有，理由是：比亚迪专注于新能源汽车市场，这个市场巨大，所以对比亚迪有信心。运气不错，事情确实被其押中，10年之后新能源汽车行业从to B转入to C时代，销量快速爬坡。比亚迪的电池技术和混动技术经过几轮迭代，相继落地应用成功，兑现销量。如下图，2020年搭载刀片电池的比亚迪汉，2021年搭载DM-i超级混动的秦Plus、宋Plus和唐等车型上市后，销量迅速提升。这也意味着，随着技术采用率的上升和用户渗透的加速，比亚迪目前在走向第二个高点的阶段。而最终能否达到高点，主要看两方面：一是公司是否有更多的可能性和空间；二是现在的市场，是否price in了相对成熟期的态势。就第一个条件来说，目前比亚迪技术的大规模应用方面，短中期没有比较明确的路径：呼声较高的半导体板块，产品主要是IGBT、MCU等电控和工业芯片，且起步较晚，可靠性与国际大厂有明显差距。高阶的智能驾驶芯片和数字座舱芯片，更是尚未涉足。手机代加工业务，虽然电子雾化突破了技术壁垒，但市场空间小，落地时间不确定。如此一来，评判压力来到了第二个条件。那么，比亚迪现在的股价，到底蕴含了什么状态呢？风投逻辑兑现，吃到了成长股最肥美一段数据显示，新能源行业仍处于加速渗透阶段，2021年6月-2022年6月，新能源汽车零售渗透率从14.6%提升到了27.4%。与此同时，比亚迪销量也同步高速增长，今年6月新能源汽车销量13.4万辆，位居细分品牌第一。也就是说，行业空间巨大叠加自身高速发展，很多人觉得比亚迪无疑是“最好”的成长股标的。在当下短中期来看，业绩兑现是相对乐观的。2021年年报电话会议上，管理层预期2022年的销量情况为：保守估计销量150万辆，冲击200万年度目标。这一预期的逻辑支撑有：比亚迪当下仍处于技术兑现的高峰期，且下半年有政策刺激（新能源汽车下乡等）。此前销量受制于产能，未能大规模释放：董事长王传福在上个月的股东大会上透露，目前比亚迪在手订单已超过50万辆。公司还有多款储备车型待交付，比如e3.0平台的海豹，开启预售7小时订单达到2.26万辆，供应商近期透露目前订单大概在11万辆左右。随着今年下半年新工厂（合肥工厂）的投产，销量将逐步释放。当然，这只是短期中的兑现情况。成长股的核心，还要关注一定时间内业绩兑现的持续性。要确定这一点，需要弄清市场对比亚迪当下的定价，反应到了哪个阶段？我们拆解比亚迪的业务构成（如下图），按分部估值法测算得出，比亚迪汽车板块对应的估值约7425亿。备注：（1）比亚迪市值选取时点为2022.7.20，选择了A股和港股的平均值；（2）电池、手机、半导体板块，估值采用券商近期估值平均数。而按照这样的估值，我们合理假设比亚迪汽车板的净利率能够达到10%，并假定未来平均单车收入为18万，在给予10-20倍PE的情况下，可得出市场对比亚迪的销量预期为412/275/206万辆。而412万辆这个销量数值，甚至超过了市场对其2025年的销量预计。也就是说静态看，市场对比亚迪现在的定价，透支的是未来3年的销量。备注：（1）估值假设基于成熟车企的历史PE区间；（2）比亚迪目前在自动驾驶、智能化，并没展现出软件订阅SaaS强大的一面，PE会延续传统车企；（3）2021年比亚迪平均单车收入14.8万，随着中高端车型的推出，平均单车收入达到18万的确定性较强。而拉长到三年的时间纬度中，行业景气度、政策、竞争环境等动态变化，比亚迪的兑现确定性多大呢？我们推算一下，合理假设2025年乘用车销量可达到2500万辆，比亚迪实现412万销量对应的市占率就为16.5%。（即使是15倍PE下的275万销量预期，对应的市占率也超过了10%）从美国市场上来看，最近几年，市占率超过10%的汽车制造商有四家，达成概率较高。但从当下的中国市场来看，2013年至今，国内主流车企乘用车市占率变化显示，细分品牌中只有一汽大众在2020年的市占率超过了10%，且仅一年，其市占率又再次回到10%以下。由此可见，在国内市场想要市占率超过10%，绝非易事。如果要给比亚迪在这一块的确定性定量，概率参考上述变化情况约为1/17。除了销量兑现问题，前文乐观假设的10%净利率，事实上也很难实现。那些全球最成熟的汽车制造商，最近十几年里，只有福特、大众各有一年，毛利率超过10%。而国内自主品牌，净利率表现相对较好的是长城汽车，2005-2021的16年里，净利率超过10%的有10年。但这都是2017年以前，吃得是SUV市场早期红利。之后，市场竞争加剧叠加汽车行业低景气度，10%以上的毛利率难以维持。其他自主品牌，净利率超过10%的情况，也都不持续。基于此，按照最乐观假设，参考历史经验，比亚迪净利率超过10%的概率，参考长城汽车的情况约为5/8，而市占率超过10%的概率又为1/17，可得两项同时兑现的概率只有3.7%。也就是说，比亚迪目前的定价里已经蕴含到了相对成熟的状态，说明大概率到达了第二个高点。这意味着芒格的风险投资逻辑已经结束了，成长股投资也已经吃到了最肥美的一段。不过，这个定价并不代表投资机会终结，毕竟定价，只是反映「成长到价值投资」过渡的前夕。汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，鱼尾阶段或不适合价值投资众所周知，价值投资的优秀标的，是“投入一定，产出无限大”的赚钱机器，投资的逻辑为：以一定的安全边际买入相对好的企业，它们的产品生命周期长，不需要做大规模的资本性投入，且生产要素议价权低，因此能够实现良好的盈利水平。那么，比亚迪是这样的标的吗？汽车作为一种高价消耗品，是有一定的使用年限的，而在中国使用年限尤其短。换车原因除了满足国家年检要求外，还有随着国内消费水平的提升，带来的换车需求。面对这部分更换需求，车企们纷纷卯足了劲儿推出新产品，逐渐形成了“每年更新改款，3年换代更迭，5年技术大革新”的行规。不仅如此，在当下的行业转型期，新能源和智能化的水平升级迅速，推动研发投入居高不下，因此传统车企的研发费用占收入比达5%-8%，新势力则更甚。天天要求竞争和更新，产品寿命周期就会不长久，因而难以成为价值投资者眼中的好生意。然而，即便车型研发成功进入量产环节，对生产线等固定资产也提出了更新要求——扩建新产线，改造旧产线。芒格曾说过：世界上有两种生意，第一种每年赚12%的收益，年末你可以拿走所有利润；第二种每年也赚12%，但你不得不把赚来的钱重新投资，然后指着所有的厂房设备对股东们说：这就是你们的利润。这么看的话，比亚迪或者说汽车制造企业的情况，正符合第二种生意。而芒格的态度是：我恨第二种生意。之所以会如此厌恶，或许在于这种生意模式，要不停投入资本，但ROI并不诱人。毕竟在芒格老伙计巴菲特眼里，通用汽车21%的毛利率与真正的优质企业相比，都是“相形见绌”的存在。回到比亚迪身上，其今年3月起停止了燃油车整车生产，之后专注于纯电和插电混动业务。这意味着，新车型的产能扩建计划要快速落实，那么高额资本支出就难以避免。而原先燃油车生产专用的固定资产，则面临较高的固定资产减值风险，这一定程度也会“吃掉”比亚迪的利润。大量Capex、D&A只是一方面，还有另一方面麻烦。车企在面对劳动生产要素时，并没太多议价权。（欧美工会就不说，相信这是一个常识）可以看到，随着车企的电动化、智能化水平提升，人才结构高端化以及人口红利消退等综合作用下，2017年以来，车企员工薪酬占收入比例，持续上升。比亚迪也不例外，2021年其职工薪酬同比增速达到31%。而这部分刚性支出，还有着难以根据行业景气度进行调整的问题——行业景气度上升时，企业不加薪可能无法留住优秀人才，而景气度下行时，降薪却难以落地。如此可能带来的是，职工人数规模在增长，但人均效益却并没有明显提升。如下图，比亚迪2021年的人均创造净利润，不升反降。一通瘦身下来，利润表最终十分单薄，以2021年为例，毛利率仅为13%，净利率不足2%。这样的收益表现，显然满足不了价值投资的胃口。总而言之，汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，当下的比亚迪与芒格买入时相比，已没有“36倍回报”的故事可讲，可能并不适合价值投资逻辑。小结去年初的Daily Journal股东大会上，芒格还在不惧“旋涡”，极力为比亚迪站台呐喊：“中国市场的一些投机者把比亚迪的股价炒得有点高，估值高到‘流鼻血’的地步。如果是聪明的风险投资者，通常会卖出一半，但是我不会这样做，因为喜欢这家公司。”站在那个时点，巴芒确实有继续持有的合理性，毕竟彼时比亚迪手握的DM-i混动技术，还没有完全兑现。而现在，新能源汽车技术预期落地，风投逻辑基本兑现，也吃到了成长股最肥美的一段。但汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，并不适合以价值投资的逻辑继续持有。如此一来，在当下的高位股价情况下，芒格会做什么样的选择，答案不言而喻。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01211":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9,"002594":0.9,"00285":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074394954,"gmtCreate":1658291803578,"gmtModify":1676536136321,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074394954","repostId":"1160182747","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160182747","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1045080548","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1658287357,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160182747?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-20 11:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Soared 223% in half a year! Shorting Star Tech Stocks, This Hedge Fund Reverses Performance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160182747","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年，大部分专注于成长股的对冲基金录得巨额亏损，但Coltrane却获利颇丰。2020年末，纽约对冲基金Coltrane Asset Management创始人Mandeep Manku做出一次重大押","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This year, most of the hedge funds focused on growth stocks have recorded huge losses, but Coltrane has been profitable.</p><p>In late 2020, Mandeep Manku, founder of New York-based hedge fund Coltrane Asset Management, made a big bet.</p><p>At the time, global stock markets plunged due to the Covid pandemic, and hedge fund Coltrane was also hit hard,<b>Manku decided to switch the Coltrane portfolio from a much-favored cheap European company to shorting high-growth star tech stocks in the United States.</b>By then, many U.S. tech stocks were trading at more than 10 times their revenues, and investor enthusiasm was relatively concentrated.</p><p>In this case, investors always end up poorly, Coltrane told clients in a September 2020 presentation.</p><p>However, by the end of 2020, tech stocks led a rebound in U.S. stocks, and Coltrane's short-selling of tech stocks cost it heavily,<b>Lost 56% that year. Although Coltrane's performance rebounded 19% in 2021, its assets fell to less than $200 million as of January this year, an 80% shrink from its previous $1 billion under management.</b></p><p><b>But this is not the final outcome. Manku resisted the pressure and insisted on shorting. Finally, the technology stocks plunged, and Coltrane's performance also ushered in a big reversal.</b></p><p>According to media reports, people familiar with the matter said,<b>As of June this year, Coltrane's earnings surged 223%, making it one of the largest hedge funds with earnings gains this year.</b></p><p>Stuart Roden, former chairman of the board of Lansdowne Partners, a European hedge fund firm, said in response that Manku is a fund manager with conviction, and he didn't give up at the wrong time, which is very rare. Roden says:</p><p>I am not worried about this deal, the analysis of this deal is solid, the key is whether Manku can follow through. In our line of work, many fund managers with correct analysis can't persist until the end. In this case, either the fund is terminated or the investors withdraw. This year, most of the hedge funds focused on growth stocks have recorded huge losses, but Coltrane has been profitable. Coltrane has successfully betted on shares falling in pandemic-beneficiary stocks such as Netflix and Peloton, with Meta, video game platform Roblox and electric pickup truck maker Rivian also among its short targets. A bet on used-car retailer Carvana, whose share price has plunged about 90% this year, contributed 9% to its earnings, a person familiar with the fund revealed.</p><p>Manku and his team maintained that bet for two years, and as the share price fell, Coltrane upped his bet by buying put options to earn big returns and cycling in and out of the trade.</p><p>Manku has told clients that the high growth these companies have seen during COVID will not continue as their management teams and shareholders expect. In fast-growing companies, a lot of insider trading is also a clear sign. Those who know the prospects of these companies best are withdrawing their capital.</p><p>Faced with the dazzling results, Manku said in an interview with the media that Coltrane's returns this year only reflect a moment, and long-term performance is what matters.<b>From the fund's inception in 2012 until June of this year, the fund had an average annual yield of 19%.</b></p><p>Manku said in a statement:</p><p>Success is about finding ways to match your worldview and consistently sticking to it, keeping your feet down to earth and calm. We are still at the beginning of our journey, but we have learned some valuable lessons.</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soared 223% in half a year! Shorting Star Tech Stocks, This Hedge Fund Reverses Performance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoared 223% in half a year! Shorting Star Tech Stocks, This Hedge Fund Reverses Performance\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1045080548\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-20 11:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This year, most of the hedge funds focused on growth stocks have recorded huge losses, but Coltrane has been profitable.</p><p>In late 2020, Mandeep Manku, founder of New York-based hedge fund Coltrane Asset Management, made a big bet.</p><p>At the time, global stock markets plunged due to the Covid pandemic, and hedge fund Coltrane was also hit hard,<b>Manku decided to switch the Coltrane portfolio from a much-favored cheap European company to shorting high-growth star tech stocks in the United States.</b>By then, many U.S. tech stocks were trading at more than 10 times their revenues, and investor enthusiasm was relatively concentrated.</p><p>In this case, investors always end up poorly, Coltrane told clients in a September 2020 presentation.</p><p>However, by the end of 2020, tech stocks led a rebound in U.S. stocks, and Coltrane's short-selling of tech stocks cost it heavily,<b>Lost 56% that year. Although Coltrane's performance rebounded 19% in 2021, its assets fell to less than $200 million as of January this year, an 80% shrink from its previous $1 billion under management.</b></p><p><b>But this is not the final outcome. Manku resisted the pressure and insisted on shorting. Finally, the technology stocks plunged, and Coltrane's performance also ushered in a big reversal.</b></p><p>According to media reports, people familiar with the matter said,<b>As of June this year, Coltrane's earnings surged 223%, making it one of the largest hedge funds with earnings gains this year.</b></p><p>Stuart Roden, former chairman of the board of Lansdowne Partners, a European hedge fund firm, said in response that Manku is a fund manager with conviction, and he didn't give up at the wrong time, which is very rare. Roden says:</p><p>I am not worried about this deal, the analysis of this deal is solid, the key is whether Manku can follow through. In our line of work, many fund managers with correct analysis can't persist until the end. In this case, either the fund is terminated or the investors withdraw. This year, most of the hedge funds focused on growth stocks have recorded huge losses, but Coltrane has been profitable. Coltrane has successfully betted on shares falling in pandemic-beneficiary stocks such as Netflix and Peloton, with Meta, video game platform Roblox and electric pickup truck maker Rivian also among its short targets. A bet on used-car retailer Carvana, whose share price has plunged about 90% this year, contributed 9% to its earnings, a person familiar with the fund revealed.</p><p>Manku and his team maintained that bet for two years, and as the share price fell, Coltrane upped his bet by buying put options to earn big returns and cycling in and out of the trade.</p><p>Manku has told clients that the high growth these companies have seen during COVID will not continue as their management teams and shareholders expect. In fast-growing companies, a lot of insider trading is also a clear sign. Those who know the prospects of these companies best are withdrawing their capital.</p><p>Faced with the dazzling results, Manku said in an interview with the media that Coltrane's returns this year only reflect a moment, and long-term performance is what matters.<b>From the fund's inception in 2012 until June of this year, the fund had an average annual yield of 19%.</b></p><p>Manku said in a statement:</p><p>Success is about finding ways to match your worldview and consistently sticking to it, keeping your feet down to earth and calm. We are still at the beginning of our journey, but we have learned some valuable lessons.</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160182747","content_text":"今年，大部分专注于成长股的对冲基金录得巨额亏损，但Coltrane却获利颇丰。2020年末，纽约对冲基金Coltrane Asset Management创始人Mandeep Manku做出一次重大押注。当时，受新冠疫情的影响，全球股市暴跌，对冲基金Coltrane也遭受重创，Manku决定改变Coltrane投资组合，从备受青睐的廉价欧洲公司转向做空美国高增长的明星科技股。彼时许多美国科技股的交易价格已超过其收入的10倍，投资者的热情相对集中。Coltrane在2020年9月的一次演讲中告诉客户，在这种情况下，投资者总是以糟糕的结局收场。然而，到了2020年底，科技股带动美股反弹，Coltrane做空科技股的行为令其损失惨重，在当年亏损了56%。尽管Coltrane的业绩在2021年反弹了19%，但截止到今年1月，其资产规模降至不到2亿美元，较之前10亿美元的管理规模缩水80%。但这并不是最终结局，Manku顶住了压力，坚持做空，最后终于熬到科技股暴跌，Coltrane的业绩也迎来大逆转。据媒体报道，知情人士透露称，截至今年6月，Coltrane收益暴涨223%，为今年收益涨幅最大的对冲基金之一。欧洲对冲基金公司Lansdowne Partners前董事会主席Stuart Roden对此表示，Manku是一个有信念的基金经理，他并没有在错误的时间放弃，这是非常难得的。Roden说：我担心的不是这笔交易，这笔交易的分析是可靠的，关键是Manku能否坚持到底。我们这一行，许多分析正确的基金经理最终无法坚持到最后，像这种情况，往往要不是基金终止，就是投资人退出。今年，大部分专注于成长股的对冲基金录得巨额亏损，但Coltrane却获利颇丰。Coltrane成功地押注了Netflix和Peloton等疫情受益股的股价下跌，Meta、视频游戏平台Roblox和电动皮卡制造商Rivian也是其做空目标。一位熟悉该基金的人士透露，对今年股价暴跌约90%的二手车零售商Carvana的押注为其贡献了9%的收益。Manku和他的团队将这项押注维持了两年，随着股价下跌，Coltrane通过买入看跌期权来获得大幅回报，并在交易中循环进出，加大了押注。Manku曾告诉客户，这些公司在新冠期间出现的高速增长不会像他们的管理团队和股东预期的那样继续下去。在快速增长的公司里，大量内部交易也是一个明显信号。那些最了解这些公司前景的人正在撤出他们的资本。面对耀眼的成绩，Manku在接受媒体采访时表示，Coltrane今年的回报只是反映了一个时刻，长期表现才是最重要的。自2012年该基金创立之初至今年6月，该基金的平均年收益率为19%。Manku在一份声明中表示：成功就是找到符合自己世界观的方法，并始终如一的坚持，保持脚踏实地和冷静。我们仍处于旅程的开始阶段，但我们已经吸取了一些宝贵的教训。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072285225,"gmtCreate":1658039657867,"gmtModify":1676536097647,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072285225","repostId":"2252448578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252448578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658020810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252448578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-17 09:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Moody's economist: The United States may fall into recession because it convinces itself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252448578","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　做了30多年经济学家的马克·赞迪说，他从未见过这么多人相信经济衰退即将来临。　　尽管他相信美国经济仍能避免这样的经济低迷，但市场情绪如此低迷，会带来自身的风险——这是一种自我实现的衰退预言。此前，美国政府本周公布的数据显示，通胀率达到了近41年来的最高水平。　　我与首席执行官、首席财务官、投资者、朋友、家人交谈，他们认为我们正在进入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>He added that the property market has \"very quickly fallen into a deep freeze\".</p><p>Mark Zandi, an economist for more than 30 years, says he has never seen so many people believe a recession is coming.</p><p>While he believes the U.S. economy can still avoid such a downturn, such low market sentiment carries its own risks—a self-fulfilling recession prophecy. Previously, data released by the U.S. government this week showed that inflation had reached its highest level in nearly 41 years.</p><p><b>Q:</b>You have lowered your GDP forecasts for this year and next. (Zandi now projects actual growth rates of 1% and 2% this year and 2023, respectively, compared to previous forecasts of 2% and 2.5%.)<b>What will happen in the next 18 to 24 months?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522238b85e5a6056ae5587a6bd09193b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Zandi, chief economist at the analysis firm</p><p><b>Answer:</b>I still have no recession (in his predictions). Obviously, the risk of a recession is high—I mean, obviously, when inflation is so high and the Federal Reserve is on primary alert and rightly focused on reducing inflation by raising interest rates, market sentiment is bad, right?</p><p>I talk to CEOs, CFOs, investors, friends, family, and they think we're heading into a recession. I've never seen anything like this before. I've seen a lot of business cycles. No one can predict a recession. But in this crisis, everyone is predicting an economic recession. Therefore, when market sentiment is so fragile, it doesn't take much effort to push us into the market. I believe that with a little luck, coupled with some reasonable policymaking by the Federal Reserve, we will be able to avoid a recession. But I didn't say it with much confidence.</p><p>I don't think we need a recession to bring inflation back. Oil prices will continue to rise. Natural gas prices will fall. As supply chain issues are resolved, we will see car prices fall, and we will gain more car production. Commodity prices, and more broadly, commodity prices, will rise.</p><p><b>Q: When you lowered your GDP growth forecast, you said that the possibility of continued economic expansion still exists. What the hell are you thinking?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>In my opinion, what gives me the most comfort is that the firewall between a growing economy and a recession is the American consumer. If American consumers can persevere, do their part, and spend as usual, we can avoid a recession. Incidentally, if American consumers hold on, they will also keep the global economy moving forward. You know, some parts of the global economy will enter, but American consumers are driving the train to some extent right now.</p><p>If you look at American consumers, they are in good shape. Clearly, they are now being hit by high inflation, but they have a lot of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, which are spread across all income groups.</p><p>According to my calculations, a typical American family had $7,000 to $8,000 in excess savings as of June of this year. Therefore, if I have to pay an extra $500 per month for higher inflation, and I have $7,000-8,000 in excess savings, you can do the math. This will buy me some time, right? I can use excess savings to supplement my income and offset the adverse effects of high inflation.</p><p>The debt is very low. The debt repayment burden is almost the lowest it has ever been. People locked in previously record low interest rates through refinancing. So they are not affected by high interest rates. You know, stock prices are falling, but house prices are rising. People are richer today.</p><p><b>Q:</b>Speaking of housing prices, I can't help but wonder if the real estate market will experience a significant cooling down. It is such an important part of the economy. In your opinion,<b>What will the housing market look like in the next year or two? What potential ripple effects does its cooling have on other sectors of the economy?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>Oh, it's cold. This place quickly became frozen. Mortgage rates are just under 6%, almost double what they were a year ago. Then multiply the higher interest rate by the higher house price, and then look at the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers, which is $500-$600 more than a year ago. This is forbidden.</p><p>As a result, first-time homebuyers are kept out of the market. And the exchange buyer is locked in, right? Because the average interest rate on an outstanding mortgage, considering all the refinancing I mentioned earlier, is 3.5% to 4%, so if you sell your house, buy another house, and get a mortgage, you'll go from 3 and a half, 4, to 6 years old. This is a significant increase in payments. So people don't do that.</p><p>Therefore, you will see that home sales have dropped significantly, and listing transactions have begun. I focus on different markets across the country, and I receive lists emailed to me that I can feel. If I go back 6 months ago, there is nothing there, no inventory. But now the list is getting longer and longer. I expect home prices to decline in parts of the United States, especially in the areas most affected by the pandemic—the Southeast, Florida, and the mountainous West.</p><p>I expect prices to drop nationwide. We might be able to keep housing prices here stable for two or three years, allowing household income, rent, and construction costs to catch up. But this is assuming there is no recession. If we fall into a recession, then I think that will put real downward pressure on housing prices.</p><p>I would like to say two more things about this. This was designed, right? The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to slow economic growth. This happens in the sectors of the economy that are most sensitive to interest rates. Real estate is the most sensitive sector of the economy to interest rates. Therefore, this is not surprising. This is exactly what you expect.</p><p>Secondly, I don't think house prices will collapse because mortgages since the financial crisis and the real estate crash more than a decade ago have been very good. I should disclose: I am a board member of MGIC, a nationally listed mortgage insurer, and I am also the chairman of the risk committee. So I studied the insurance industry very carefully, which has been primitive since the collapse. Another thing is, these are all regular 30-year, 15-year fixed interest rates, prepayment of the mortgage, nothing special.</p><p>Therefore, I don't think these pressures will lead to a significant drop in prices. However, prices remained flat nationwide, and market share declined in a significant portion of the country. Yes, I expected that. I would say that this is exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moody's economist: The United States may fall into recession because it convinces itself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMoody's economist: The United States may fall into recession because it convinces itself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-17 09:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>He added that the property market has \"very quickly fallen into a deep freeze\".</p><p>Mark Zandi, an economist for more than 30 years, says he has never seen so many people believe a recession is coming.</p><p>While he believes the U.S. economy can still avoid such a downturn, such low market sentiment carries its own risks—a self-fulfilling recession prophecy. Previously, data released by the U.S. government this week showed that inflation had reached its highest level in nearly 41 years.</p><p><b>Q:</b>You have lowered your GDP forecasts for this year and next. (Zandi now projects actual growth rates of 1% and 2% this year and 2023, respectively, compared to previous forecasts of 2% and 2.5%.)<b>What will happen in the next 18 to 24 months?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522238b85e5a6056ae5587a6bd09193b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Zandi, chief economist at the analysis firm</p><p><b>Answer:</b>I still have no recession (in his predictions). Obviously, the risk of a recession is high—I mean, obviously, when inflation is so high and the Federal Reserve is on primary alert and rightly focused on reducing inflation by raising interest rates, market sentiment is bad, right?</p><p>I talk to CEOs, CFOs, investors, friends, family, and they think we're heading into a recession. I've never seen anything like this before. I've seen a lot of business cycles. No one can predict a recession. But in this crisis, everyone is predicting an economic recession. Therefore, when market sentiment is so fragile, it doesn't take much effort to push us into the market. I believe that with a little luck, coupled with some reasonable policymaking by the Federal Reserve, we will be able to avoid a recession. But I didn't say it with much confidence.</p><p>I don't think we need a recession to bring inflation back. Oil prices will continue to rise. Natural gas prices will fall. As supply chain issues are resolved, we will see car prices fall, and we will gain more car production. Commodity prices, and more broadly, commodity prices, will rise.</p><p><b>Q: When you lowered your GDP growth forecast, you said that the possibility of continued economic expansion still exists. What the hell are you thinking?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>In my opinion, what gives me the most comfort is that the firewall between a growing economy and a recession is the American consumer. If American consumers can persevere, do their part, and spend as usual, we can avoid a recession. Incidentally, if American consumers hold on, they will also keep the global economy moving forward. You know, some parts of the global economy will enter, but American consumers are driving the train to some extent right now.</p><p>If you look at American consumers, they are in good shape. Clearly, they are now being hit by high inflation, but they have a lot of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, which are spread across all income groups.</p><p>According to my calculations, a typical American family had $7,000 to $8,000 in excess savings as of June of this year. Therefore, if I have to pay an extra $500 per month for higher inflation, and I have $7,000-8,000 in excess savings, you can do the math. This will buy me some time, right? I can use excess savings to supplement my income and offset the adverse effects of high inflation.</p><p>The debt is very low. The debt repayment burden is almost the lowest it has ever been. People locked in previously record low interest rates through refinancing. So they are not affected by high interest rates. You know, stock prices are falling, but house prices are rising. People are richer today.</p><p><b>Q:</b>Speaking of housing prices, I can't help but wonder if the real estate market will experience a significant cooling down. It is such an important part of the economy. In your opinion,<b>What will the housing market look like in the next year or two? What potential ripple effects does its cooling have on other sectors of the economy?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>Oh, it's cold. This place quickly became frozen. Mortgage rates are just under 6%, almost double what they were a year ago. Then multiply the higher interest rate by the higher house price, and then look at the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers, which is $500-$600 more than a year ago. This is forbidden.</p><p>As a result, first-time homebuyers are kept out of the market. And the exchange buyer is locked in, right? Because the average interest rate on an outstanding mortgage, considering all the refinancing I mentioned earlier, is 3.5% to 4%, so if you sell your house, buy another house, and get a mortgage, you'll go from 3 and a half, 4, to 6 years old. This is a significant increase in payments. So people don't do that.</p><p>Therefore, you will see that home sales have dropped significantly, and listing transactions have begun. I focus on different markets across the country, and I receive lists emailed to me that I can feel. If I go back 6 months ago, there is nothing there, no inventory. But now the list is getting longer and longer. I expect home prices to decline in parts of the United States, especially in the areas most affected by the pandemic—the Southeast, Florida, and the mountainous West.</p><p>I expect prices to drop nationwide. We might be able to keep housing prices here stable for two or three years, allowing household income, rent, and construction costs to catch up. But this is assuming there is no recession. If we fall into a recession, then I think that will put real downward pressure on housing prices.</p><p>I would like to say two more things about this. This was designed, right? The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to slow economic growth. This happens in the sectors of the economy that are most sensitive to interest rates. Real estate is the most sensitive sector of the economy to interest rates. Therefore, this is not surprising. This is exactly what you expect.</p><p>Secondly, I don't think house prices will collapse because mortgages since the financial crisis and the real estate crash more than a decade ago have been very good. I should disclose: I am a board member of MGIC, a nationally listed mortgage insurer, and I am also the chairman of the risk committee. So I studied the insurance industry very carefully, which has been primitive since the collapse. Another thing is, these are all regular 30-year, 15-year fixed interest rates, prepayment of the mortgage, nothing special.</p><p>Therefore, I don't think these pressures will lead to a significant drop in prices. However, prices remained flat nationwide, and market share declined in a significant portion of the country. Yes, I expected that. I would say that this is exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-17/doc-imizmscv1978961.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522238b85e5a6056ae5587a6bd09193b","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","MCO":"穆迪","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-17/doc-imizmscv1978961.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252448578","content_text":"他补充说，房地产市场已经“非常迅速地陷入深度冻结”做了30多年经济学家的马克·赞迪说，他从未见过这么多人相信经济衰退即将来临。尽管他相信美国经济仍能避免这样的经济低迷，但市场情绪如此低迷，会带来自身的风险——这是一种自我实现的衰退预言。此前，美国政府本周公布的数据显示，通胀率达到了近41年来的最高水平。问：您下调了今年和明年的GDP预期。（赞迪现在预计，今年和2023年的实际增长率分别为1%和2%，而之前的预测分别为2%和2.5%。）未来18到24个月将会发生什么？穆迪分析公司首席经济学家赞迪答：我（在他的预测中）仍然没有衰退。很明显，经济衰退的风险很高——我的意思是，很明显，当通货膨胀如此之高，美联储处于一级防范状态，并正确地专注于通过提高利率来降低通货膨胀时，市场情绪很糟糕，对吗？我与首席执行官、首席财务官、投资者、朋友、家人交谈，他们认为我们正在进入衰退。我从来没见过这样的东西。我见过很多商业周期。没有人能预测经济衰退。但在这次危机中，每个人都在预测经济衰退。因此，当市场情绪如此脆弱时，不需要付出太多努力就能推动我们进入市场。我认为，只要有一点运气，加上美联储的一些合理的政策制定，我们将能够避免经济衰退。但我并没有很自信地说。我认为我们不需要经济衰退来让通货膨胀再次出现。油价将继续上涨。天然气价格将会下降。随着供应链问题得到解决，我们将看到汽车价格下降，我们将获得更多的汽车产量。商品价格，更广泛地说，商品价格将会上涨。问：您在下调GDP增长预期时曾表示，经济继续扩张的可能性仍然存在。你到底在想什么？答：在我看来，让我感到最欣慰的是，在持续增长的经济和衰退之间的防火墙是美国消费者。如果美国消费者能坚持下去，尽自己的一份力，像往常一样消费，我们就能避免经济衰退。顺便说一下，如果美国消费者坚持住，他们也将保持全球经济向前发展。你知道，全球经济的一些部分将会进入，但美国消费者现在在某种程度上是在驱动火车。如果你看看美国消费者，他们的状况很好。显然，他们现在正受到高通胀的打击，但他们有很多在疫情期间积累起来的过剩储蓄，这些储蓄遍及所有收入群体。根据我的计算，对于一个典型的美国家庭来说，截至今年6月，他们有7000至8000美元的超额储蓄。因此，如果我每个月要为更高的通货膨胀多支付500美元，而我有7000 - 8000美元的超额储蓄，你可以计算一下。这能给我争取点时间，对吧？我可以用多余的存款来补充我的收入，抵消高通货膨胀的不良影响。债务很低。债务偿还负担几乎是有史以来最低的。人们通过再融资锁定了此前创纪录的低利率。所以他们不受高利率的影响。你知道，股价在下跌，但房价在上涨。今天人们更富有了。问：说到房价，我不禁想知道，房地产市场是否会出现一场相当严重的降温。它是经济中如此重要的组成部分。在你看来，未来一两年住房市场会是什么样子？它的冷却对其他经济领域有什么潜在的连锁反应？答：哦，凉了。这里很快就进入了冰封状态。抵押贷款利率略低于6%，几乎是一年前的两倍。然后用更高的利率，乘以更高的房价，然后看首次购房者的月供，比一年前多了500- 600美元。这是禁止的。因此，首次购房者被挡在了市场之外。而换货买家是被锁定的，对吧？因为未偿还抵押贷款的平均利率，考虑到我之前说过的所有再融资，是3.5%到4%所以，如果你卖掉你的房子，再买一套房子，获得抵押贷款，你就会从3岁半，4岁，到6岁。这是付款的大幅增加。所以人们不会这么做。所以，你会看到房屋销售已经大幅下降，挂牌交易也开始了。我关注全国各地的不同市场，我收到电子邮件给我的清单，我能感觉到。如果我回到6个月前，那里什么都没有，没有库存。但是现在这个列表变得越来越长。我预计美国部分地区的房价会下降，尤其是在疫情影响最大的地区——东南部、佛罗里达州和西部山区。我预计全国范围内的价格会有所下降。我们或许可以让这里的房价在两三年内保持平稳，让家庭收入、租金和建筑成本赶上来。但这是以没有衰退为前提的。如果我们陷入衰退，那么我认为这将给房价带来真正的下行压力。关于这个我还想说两点。这是设计好的，对吧？美联储正在提高利率以减缓经济增长。这种情况发生在对利率最敏感的经济部门。房地产是经济中对利率最敏感的领域。所以，这并不令人惊讶。这正是你所期望的。其次，我不认为房价会崩盘，因为自金融危机以来的抵押贷款和十多年前的房地产崩盘都是非常好的。我应该透露一下：我是MGIC的董事会成员，MGIC是一家全国性的上市抵押贷款保险公司，我也是风险委员会的主席。所以我非常仔细地研究了保险业，它自崩溃以来一直是原始的。另一件事是，这都是普通的30年，15年固定利率，提前支付抵押贷款，没什么特别的。因此，我不认为这些压力会导致价格大幅下跌。但是价格在全国范围内持平，在相当一部分市场份额下降？是的，我预料到了。我想说，这正是美联储希望看到的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MCO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071837321,"gmtCreate":1657507717463,"gmtModify":1676536016422,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071837321","repostId":"1100338233","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071832259,"gmtCreate":1657507470572,"gmtModify":1676536016367,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071832259","repostId":"2250524988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250524988","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657507058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250524988?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 10:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Inflation is unbearable! Survey shows nearly 4.5 million British households are in \"severe economic distress\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250524988","media":"智通财经网","summary":"一项调查显示，自去年10月以来，面临严重财务压力的英国家庭数量增加了近60%，高于疫情期间的任何时候。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to a survey conducted by Zhitong Finance APP, the number of British households facing severe financial pressure has increased by nearly 60% since October last year, higher than at any time during the pandemic.</p><p>The Royal Financial Fair Trust and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRS\">Bristol</a>Researchers at the University of England estimate that 16% of British households (4.4 million) are in “severe financial difficulty,” and another 20% are “struggling” to make ends meet.</p><p>Research shows that the worst cost-of-living crisis in this generation is causing increasing losses. This pressure will intensify further by October, when energy bills will soar again and inflation is expected to exceed 11%.</p><p>Britain is in a period of political turmoil following the forced resignation of Prime Minister Johnson last week, and the government is under pressure to provide more help to affected British families. In May of this year, the British government under Johnson announced an additional £15 billion (approximately $18 billion) in living support costs, but there are growing calls for the additional aid to be announced before the next prime minister is chosen.</p><p>Mubin Haq, chief executive of the Royal Financial Fair Trust: “Times are tough for everyone, but those with the lowest incomes are the most affected by rising prices.” “Wage levels have essentially stagnated and can no longer keep up with inflation, and social security is lower in real terms than it was a decade ago. People urgently need a more comprehensive and long-term plan to ensure that living standards do not decline further.”</p><p>The survey shows that more than half of people believe their financial situation is worse than it was earlier in the pandemic, and when the same question was asked last October, only a third believed their financial situation had deteriorated.</p><p>The survey also showed that amid severe economic hardship, 71% of people reduced the quality of their food, 36% sold or pawned their property, and 27% canceled or stopped renewing their insurance. \"What is particularly worrying is that people may be accumulating financial problems for themselves in the future,\" said Sharon Collard, a professor at the University of Bristol.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation is unbearable! Survey shows nearly 4.5 million British households are in \"severe economic distress\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation is unbearable! Survey shows nearly 4.5 million British households are in \"severe economic distress\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-11 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to a survey conducted by Zhitong Finance APP, the number of British households facing severe financial pressure has increased by nearly 60% since October last year, higher than at any time during the pandemic.</p><p>The Royal Financial Fair Trust and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRS\">Bristol</a>Researchers at the University of England estimate that 16% of British households (4.4 million) are in “severe financial difficulty,” and another 20% are “struggling” to make ends meet.</p><p>Research shows that the worst cost-of-living crisis in this generation is causing increasing losses. This pressure will intensify further by October, when energy bills will soar again and inflation is expected to exceed 11%.</p><p>Britain is in a period of political turmoil following the forced resignation of Prime Minister Johnson last week, and the government is under pressure to provide more help to affected British families. In May of this year, the British government under Johnson announced an additional £15 billion (approximately $18 billion) in living support costs, but there are growing calls for the additional aid to be announced before the next prime minister is chosen.</p><p>Mubin Haq, chief executive of the Royal Financial Fair Trust: “Times are tough for everyone, but those with the lowest incomes are the most affected by rising prices.” “Wage levels have essentially stagnated and can no longer keep up with inflation, and social security is lower in real terms than it was a decade ago. People urgently need a more comprehensive and long-term plan to ensure that living standards do not decline further.”</p><p>The survey shows that more than half of people believe their financial situation is worse than it was earlier in the pandemic, and when the same question was asked last October, only a third believed their financial situation had deteriorated.</p><p>The survey also showed that amid severe economic hardship, 71% of people reduced the quality of their food, 36% sold or pawned their property, and 27% canceled or stopped renewing their insurance. \"What is particularly worrying is that people may be accumulating financial problems for themselves in the future,\" said Sharon Collard, a professor at the University of Bristol.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752654.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c8a532c32a6bb24a17bf846cb739b10","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752654.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2250524988","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，一项调查显示，自去年10月以来，面临严重财务压力的英国家庭数量增加了近60%，高于疫情期间的任何时候。英国皇家金融公平信托基金会和布里斯托尔大学的研究人员预估，16%的英国家庭(即440万)处于“严重的经济困难”中，还有20%的英国家庭“挣扎”度日。研究表明，这一代人中最严重的生活成本危机正在造成越来越大的损失。到10月份，这种压力将进一步加剧，届时能源账单将再次飙升，预计通胀率将超过11%。在英国首相约翰逊上周被迫辞职后，英国正处于政治动荡时期，政府面临着向受影响的英国家庭提供更多帮助的压力。今年5月，约翰逊领导下的英国政府宣布额外提供150亿英镑(约合180亿美元)的生活支持费用，但越来越多的人呼吁在下一任首相选定之前就宣布额外的援助。英国皇家金融公平信托基金会首席执行官Mubin  Haq：“对每个人来说，日子都很艰难，但那些收入最低的人受到价格上涨的影响最大。”“工资水平基本上已经停滞，无法再跟上通胀的步伐，按实际价值计算，社会保障比十年前要低。人们迫切需要一项更全面、更长期的计划，以确保生活水平不会进一步下降。”调查显示，超过一半的人认为他们的财务状况比疫情早期更糟糕，当同样的问题在去年10月被问及时，只有三分之一的人认为其财务状况恶化了。调查还显示，在严重的经济困难中，71%的人降低了食物质量，36%的人卖掉或典当了财产，27%的人取消或不再更新保险。布里斯托尔大学教授Sharon  Collard表示:“尤其令人担忧的是，人们可能在为自己积攒未来的财务问题。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070886632,"gmtCreate":1657043377426,"gmtModify":1676535937419,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070886632","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase loses 800 million yuan.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten. More than three months later, the \"nickel short squeeze war,\" known to the whole world, has finally come to an end:</p><p>Wenzhou's richest man, Xiang Guangda, and his Qingshan Group escaped unscathed, while Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its losses and exited the market, losing $120 million (approximately 800 million RMB).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings / Image source: Internet</p><p>On June 29, it was reported that Tsingshan Holdings Group safely exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The holdings have shrunk to around 30,000 tons, far below the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and none of these positions were held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is likely the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left the Wall Street tycoon with dignity; otherwise, given the circumstances at the time, $120 million would have been far from enough.</p><p>Those who are following this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind this the Swiss commodities giant Glencore? How come JPMorgan Chase ended up losing money?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterattacks, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Let's briefly review the entire process of the LME nickel incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, LME nickel futures surged from US$29,000/ton to US$55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, LME nickel futures surged from $60,000/ton to $100,000/ton, a process that took less than an hour.</p><p>At 8:15 a.m. (UK time) on March 8, the London Money Exchange suspended trading in all nickel contracts and canceled trading after midnight on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot funds through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group announced that it had reached a \"tacit agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan Group will not liquidate its holdings; thereafter, Tsingshan Group will reduce its holdings.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading resumed on the London Money Exchange.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Financial Exchange, ending the event.</p><p>At this point, those unfamiliar with the details may wonder why Tsingshan Group has been targeted by Wall Street capital.</p><p>You really can't blame Wall Street capital. Tsingshan Group has turned itself into \"Tang Sanzang's flesh,\" and who wouldn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal flaws in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the nickel delivered by Longines. The products delivered by Longines are electrolytic nickel with a purity of over 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Tsingshan Group only contains about 70% high nickel matte and about 10% ferronickel. 2. Tsingshan Group's hedging operations are problematic. At the time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures short positions, but the entire London Exchange's nickel inventory was only 80,000 tons. In other words, even if it bought all the nickel on the London Exchange, it still couldn't raise half of its futures short positions. 3. Normally, when Tsingshan Group encounters a delivery period, it will buy nickel from Russia to liquidate its positions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict reversed market logic, leading to an embargo on Russian nickel. Tsingshan Group failed to respond to this news in a timely manner. In conclusion, although Qingshan Group has a wealth of assets, it has played all its good cards at this table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and it cannot afford any cards played by others. Faced with this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which is naturally bloodthirsty, possibly let this seemingly \"sure-win\" hunt slip by? Wall Street has done something like this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street capital rapidly pushed up nickel futures prices on March 7 and 8, raising something worth $20,000 to $30,000 to $100,000, incidentally breaking \"the record for the highest price volatility of any asset.\"</p><p>The situation at the time was that if Tsingshan Group couldn't deliver its goods, it would have to lose hundreds of billions of yuan, and if it didn't have money, it would have to sell its nickel ore in Indonesia. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies had painstakingly built was likely to be severely hammered.</p><p>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten.</p><p>Although it was unknown who had done it at the time, Qingshan Group's counterattack began on March 9. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high-grade nickel matte, and has allocated sufficient spot stock through various channels for delivery.</p><p>According to rumors, several large companies in the industry participated in this replacement at the time, which can be described as a united front. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I received many phone calls, and relevant national departments and leaders were very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So why didn't Tsingshan Group hand over 200,000 tons of nickel deliverables to Wall Street buyers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods and ultimately having to sell them at a low price, losing tens of billions of US dollars?</p><p>While raising 200,000 tons of nickel for delivery can certainly solve the immediate problem, what should domestic companies do with so much nickel delivered? Should all companies stop production and wait a few months for new nickel to be produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing this was certainly satisfying, but the price paid was too high.</p><p>As a seasoned entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his rivals from March 9 to March 15, confident that he could provide 200,000 tons of deliverables, and ultimately reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short positions to turn the tide. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they prevented the losses from widening, which is an outcome acceptable to both sides.</p><p><b>Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident occurred in early March, someone pressed a calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might have lost 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of yuan. Such a large-scale short squeeze inevitably involves a considerable amount of capital.</p><p>At the time, some suspected that commodities giant Glencore was behind it all in order to acquire a 60% stake in Tsingshan's nickel mine in Indonesia. Founded in 1974, Glencore is Switzerland's largest company with revenues of US$215.11 billion and a business scope covering the supply of mineral, energy and agricultural products.</p><p>But Glencore couldn't possibly come up with so much money on its own; there must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least for now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott have been forced out, the two \"wolves from Wall Street\".</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase had already sold it in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in its nickel-related business.</p><p>There is hardly any convincing reason for Wall Street's long-established investment banks to lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures product in the first quarter, other than their involvement in the \"nickel short squeeze\" event in March. Subsequent information also proved that it was the largest counterparty to Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's off-exchange positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holdings Group owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into a quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a huge financial hole, the person in charge should at least say something.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reluctantly said, \"We had a small loss this quarter, and we will try to get through it. We will conduct an after-the-fact analysis of what we did wrong and what different measures LLM could have taken afterward.\"</p><p>This statement sounds very official, but upon closer examination, it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they were doing things for their clients; JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their clients. As for who the client was or whether it was Glencore, they did not say. Second, they have reservations about Lenkin Institute's action of \"unplugging the network cable\" and may have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already begun to take action. They don't seem to be giving up and are still making a final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Image source/Visual China</p><p>According to an announcement released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, Elliott Management, a well-known American investment firm, launched a challenge against them, arguing that the London Exchange's \"cancellation of trading after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022 is illegal.\"</p><p>Two hedge funds under Elliott Group have sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME, and its clearing house LME Clear Limite in the UK High Court, seeking approximately US$456 million, or about RMB 3 billion, in damages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977, Elliott Management managed over $51.5 billion in funds at the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce was Elliott? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, changing presidents five times in half a month, and was unable to repay its foreign debt of up to $150 billion. Just as other financial institutions were avoiding it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to buy Argentina's Treasury Bond at the bottom.</p><p>Over the next nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in an effort to revive its economy, which Elliott and his creditors rejected twice and even sued Argentina in a U.S. court. It's unimaginable how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande if its creditors disagree with its restructuring.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully offered $2.28 billion in settlement, a deal that Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win its lawsuit against the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it may be possible to see it. Because when it's time to \"divide the meat,\" the wolves of Wall Street are willing to go all out.</p><p><b>Is \"China's Nickel King\" holding Musks' Achilles' heel? /</b></p><p>According to the Daily Economic News, a Glencore representative, when asked whether they were involved in the matter, said, \"The above statement is complete nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some industry insiders believe that Glencore, even if not directly involved, is an indirect participant in this market trend. The market's speculation stems from the fact that the global competition for nickel has reached a fever pitch.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total cost of batteries. The proportion will be even higher for high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel batteries. However, nickel is unevenly distributed around the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle giants. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle affecting the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, LME's nickel inventory continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliverables are purchased in large quantities for use in manufacturing new energy batteries. The nickel deficit is projected to be -25,600 tons, -27,900 tons, and -65,300 tons in 2023, 2025, and 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just like God feeding Xiang Guangda with his rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in 1958 into an ordinary working-class family in Shacheng Town, Longwan District, Wenzhou. After graduation, I worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and even became a workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was preparing to \"turn thirty and stand firm\". He gave up his \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at the time and co-founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company\" with relatives such as Zhang Jimin.</p><p>Thanks to its emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car door and window business is doing very well. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special Shape Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\", officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that without change, the company would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-mineral heat furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop a new RKEF-AOD furnace dual-combination method technology, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>“Stainless steel is 60%-70% nickel, so who produces the nickel? It’s produced by foreigners; we don’t produce it ourselves.” Xiang Guangda then put nickel production on the agenda.</p><p>During the 2008 financial crisis, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine, which has the world's largest nickel reserves. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining rights for a laterite nickel mine covering an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China for the first time. Qingshan Holdings Group has once again mastered the technology of purifying high nickel matte from laterite nickel ore. After one operation, Xiang Guangda has connected the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With nickel in hand, stainless steel is no problem. Tsingshan Holdings Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holdings' stainless steel output increased from one million tons to ten million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. It has now firmly established itself as the world's largest stainless steel producer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent guest at local government and business symposiums.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holdings Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion yuan, ranking 279th in the Fortune Global 500. According to Tianyancha, Xiang Guangda acquired a 48.45% stake in Qingshan Holdings Group through various means, making him the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings' equity structure / Screenshot from Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, when it became the hottest track, bar none. CATL and BYD, listed on the A-share market, have market capitalizations exceeding one trillion yuan, while Tesla's market capitalization even exceeds the combined market capitalization of several established automakers.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, but Xiang Guangda has plenty of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel production was 600,000 tons in 2021, which is expected to reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, Xiang Guangda can be said to be the undisputed \"King of Nickel\" and holds a firm grip on the lifeblood of the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Not content with just \"working\" for new energy vehicles, Tsingshan Group has now joined hands with XCMG Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>However, fame brings trouble, and pigs at the forefront are the easiest targets to be targeted. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"ordeal\" safely, still needs to be careful; he has too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase loses 800 million yuan.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase loses 800 million yuan.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten. More than three months later, the \"nickel short squeeze war,\" known to the whole world, has finally come to an end:</p><p>Wenzhou's richest man, Xiang Guangda, and his Qingshan Group escaped unscathed, while Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its losses and exited the market, losing $120 million (approximately 800 million RMB).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings / Image source: Internet</p><p>On June 29, it was reported that Tsingshan Holdings Group safely exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The holdings have shrunk to around 30,000 tons, far below the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and none of these positions were held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is likely the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left the Wall Street tycoon with dignity; otherwise, given the circumstances at the time, $120 million would have been far from enough.</p><p>Those who are following this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind this the Swiss commodities giant Glencore? How come JPMorgan Chase ended up losing money?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterattacks, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Let's briefly review the entire process of the LME nickel incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, LME nickel futures surged from US$29,000/ton to US$55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, LME nickel futures surged from $60,000/ton to $100,000/ton, a process that took less than an hour.</p><p>At 8:15 a.m. (UK time) on March 8, the London Money Exchange suspended trading in all nickel contracts and canceled trading after midnight on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot funds through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group announced that it had reached a \"tacit agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan Group will not liquidate its holdings; thereafter, Tsingshan Group will reduce its holdings.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading resumed on the London Money Exchange.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Financial Exchange, ending the event.</p><p>At this point, those unfamiliar with the details may wonder why Tsingshan Group has been targeted by Wall Street capital.</p><p>You really can't blame Wall Street capital. Tsingshan Group has turned itself into \"Tang Sanzang's flesh,\" and who wouldn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal flaws in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the nickel delivered by Longines. The products delivered by Longines are electrolytic nickel with a purity of over 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Tsingshan Group only contains about 70% high nickel matte and about 10% ferronickel. 2. Tsingshan Group's hedging operations are problematic. At the time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures short positions, but the entire London Exchange's nickel inventory was only 80,000 tons. In other words, even if it bought all the nickel on the London Exchange, it still couldn't raise half of its futures short positions. 3. Normally, when Tsingshan Group encounters a delivery period, it will buy nickel from Russia to liquidate its positions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict reversed market logic, leading to an embargo on Russian nickel. Tsingshan Group failed to respond to this news in a timely manner. In conclusion, although Qingshan Group has a wealth of assets, it has played all its good cards at this table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and it cannot afford any cards played by others. Faced with this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which is naturally bloodthirsty, possibly let this seemingly \"sure-win\" hunt slip by? Wall Street has done something like this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street capital rapidly pushed up nickel futures prices on March 7 and 8, raising something worth $20,000 to $30,000 to $100,000, incidentally breaking \"the record for the highest price volatility of any asset.\"</p><p>The situation at the time was that if Tsingshan Group couldn't deliver its goods, it would have to lose hundreds of billions of yuan, and if it didn't have money, it would have to sell its nickel ore in Indonesia. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies had painstakingly built was likely to be severely hammered.</p><p>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten.</p><p>Although it was unknown who had done it at the time, Qingshan Group's counterattack began on March 9. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high-grade nickel matte, and has allocated sufficient spot stock through various channels for delivery.</p><p>According to rumors, several large companies in the industry participated in this replacement at the time, which can be described as a united front. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I received many phone calls, and relevant national departments and leaders were very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So why didn't Tsingshan Group hand over 200,000 tons of nickel deliverables to Wall Street buyers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods and ultimately having to sell them at a low price, losing tens of billions of US dollars?</p><p>While raising 200,000 tons of nickel for delivery can certainly solve the immediate problem, what should domestic companies do with so much nickel delivered? Should all companies stop production and wait a few months for new nickel to be produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing this was certainly satisfying, but the price paid was too high.</p><p>As a seasoned entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his rivals from March 9 to March 15, confident that he could provide 200,000 tons of deliverables, and ultimately reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short positions to turn the tide. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they prevented the losses from widening, which is an outcome acceptable to both sides.</p><p><b>Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident occurred in early March, someone pressed a calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might have lost 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of yuan. Such a large-scale short squeeze inevitably involves a considerable amount of capital.</p><p>At the time, some suspected that commodities giant Glencore was behind it all in order to acquire a 60% stake in Tsingshan's nickel mine in Indonesia. Founded in 1974, Glencore is Switzerland's largest company with revenues of US$215.11 billion and a business scope covering the supply of mineral, energy and agricultural products.</p><p>But Glencore couldn't possibly come up with so much money on its own; there must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least for now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott have been forced out, the two \"wolves from Wall Street\".</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase had already sold it in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in its nickel-related business.</p><p>There is hardly any convincing reason for Wall Street's long-established investment banks to lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures product in the first quarter, other than their involvement in the \"nickel short squeeze\" event in March. Subsequent information also proved that it was the largest counterparty to Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's off-exchange positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holdings Group owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into a quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a huge financial hole, the person in charge should at least say something.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reluctantly said, \"We had a small loss this quarter, and we will try to get through it. We will conduct an after-the-fact analysis of what we did wrong and what different measures LLM could have taken afterward.\"</p><p>This statement sounds very official, but upon closer examination, it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they were doing things for their clients; JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their clients. As for who the client was or whether it was Glencore, they did not say. Second, they have reservations about Lenkin Institute's action of \"unplugging the network cable\" and may have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already begun to take action. They don't seem to be giving up and are still making a final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Image source/Visual China</p><p>According to an announcement released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, Elliott Management, a well-known American investment firm, launched a challenge against them, arguing that the London Exchange's \"cancellation of trading after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022 is illegal.\"</p><p>Two hedge funds under Elliott Group have sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME, and its clearing house LME Clear Limite in the UK High Court, seeking approximately US$456 million, or about RMB 3 billion, in damages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977, Elliott Management managed over $51.5 billion in funds at the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce was Elliott? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, changing presidents five times in half a month, and was unable to repay its foreign debt of up to $150 billion. Just as other financial institutions were avoiding it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to buy Argentina's Treasury Bond at the bottom.</p><p>Over the next nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in an effort to revive its economy, which Elliott and his creditors rejected twice and even sued Argentina in a U.S. court. It's unimaginable how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande if its creditors disagree with its restructuring.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully offered $2.28 billion in settlement, a deal that Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win its lawsuit against the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it may be possible to see it. Because when it's time to \"divide the meat,\" the wolves of Wall Street are willing to go all out.</p><p><b>Is \"China's Nickel King\" holding Musks' Achilles' heel? /</b></p><p>According to the Daily Economic News, a Glencore representative, when asked whether they were involved in the matter, said, \"The above statement is complete nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some industry insiders believe that Glencore, even if not directly involved, is an indirect participant in this market trend. The market's speculation stems from the fact that the global competition for nickel has reached a fever pitch.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total cost of batteries. The proportion will be even higher for high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel batteries. However, nickel is unevenly distributed around the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle giants. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle affecting the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, LME's nickel inventory continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliverables are purchased in large quantities for use in manufacturing new energy batteries. The nickel deficit is projected to be -25,600 tons, -27,900 tons, and -65,300 tons in 2023, 2025, and 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just like God feeding Xiang Guangda with his rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in 1958 into an ordinary working-class family in Shacheng Town, Longwan District, Wenzhou. After graduation, I worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and even became a workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was preparing to \"turn thirty and stand firm\". He gave up his \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at the time and co-founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company\" with relatives such as Zhang Jimin.</p><p>Thanks to its emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car door and window business is doing very well. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special Shape Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\", officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that without change, the company would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-mineral heat furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop a new RKEF-AOD furnace dual-combination method technology, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>“Stainless steel is 60%-70% nickel, so who produces the nickel? It’s produced by foreigners; we don’t produce it ourselves.” Xiang Guangda then put nickel production on the agenda.</p><p>During the 2008 financial crisis, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine, which has the world's largest nickel reserves. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining rights for a laterite nickel mine covering an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China for the first time. Qingshan Holdings Group has once again mastered the technology of purifying high nickel matte from laterite nickel ore. After one operation, Xiang Guangda has connected the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With nickel in hand, stainless steel is no problem. Tsingshan Holdings Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holdings' stainless steel output increased from one million tons to ten million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. It has now firmly established itself as the world's largest stainless steel producer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent guest at local government and business symposiums.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holdings Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion yuan, ranking 279th in the Fortune Global 500. According to Tianyancha, Xiang Guangda acquired a 48.45% stake in Qingshan Holdings Group through various means, making him the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings' equity structure / Screenshot from Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, when it became the hottest track, bar none. CATL and BYD, listed on the A-share market, have market capitalizations exceeding one trillion yuan, while Tesla's market capitalization even exceeds the combined market capitalization of several established automakers.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, but Xiang Guangda has plenty of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel production was 600,000 tons in 2021, which is expected to reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, Xiang Guangda can be said to be the undisputed \"King of Nickel\" and holds a firm grip on the lifeblood of the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Not content with just \"working\" for new energy vehicles, Tsingshan Group has now joined hands with XCMG Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>However, fame brings trouble, and pigs at the forefront are the easiest targets to be targeted. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"ordeal\" safely, still needs to be careful; he has too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040617845,"gmtCreate":1655654750987,"gmtModify":1676535678668,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040617845","repostId":"2244846324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057151859,"gmtCreate":1655481545171,"gmtModify":1676535648517,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057151859","repostId":"1124502900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124502900","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655466772,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124502900?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 19:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Before the market | \"Four Witches Day\" arrives! Another test for U.S. stocks tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124502900","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日，美股三大股指期货震荡上扬，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.67%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨1.18%；标普500指数期货涨0.87%。在经历昨夜美股的大幅回落之后，今夜美股市场再次迎来一大考验——","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 17th, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated and rose. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.67%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.18%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694311698033b0036af0169ff8b2eec\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After experiencing the sharp decline of U.S. stocks last night, the U.S. stock market once again ushered in a big test tonight-\"Four Witches Day\". \"Four Witches Day\" refers to the maturity settlement date of derivative financial instruments on the third Friday of the quarterly month (March, June, September and December) in the US market, and the price on that day is expected to fluctuate greatly.</p><p>According to industry statistics, this time, options with a nominal scale of $3.4 trillion will expire, which is similar to that of December last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Rocky Fishman of, noted that the selling of a large number of bearish positions could trigger a major turning point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd26fd96d9ea70ca681e5c8591634ed2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>The pre-market gains of popular Chinese stocks continued to expand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>It rose by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>rose by more than 7%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 4% before the market, and the company lowered its profit forecast for the third quarter;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku</a>It rose by more than 5% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Reach a TV shopping cooperation agreement with it.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.29%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 1.14%, and French CAC40 rose 1.27%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c98c13582a5fdca1bcc5acfe7cf892\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.36% to $117.17/barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.17% to $119.61/barrel.</p><p>Despite demand concerns raised by a multinational rate hike this week, crude oil supplies are likely to remain tight due to limited spare capacity from producers, coupled with potential new sanctions on Iraq limiting the downside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de5ddfbdbf33bf359f98924ea511528c\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/566c8e22c10b7f3c34ee55b3dcdb0034\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gold</p><p>Gold futures were lower, down 0.05% at $1,849/oz as of press time.</p><p>International gold prices fell as a stronger US dollar and higher US Treasury Bond yields hit demand for US dollar-denominated gold, but the impact of the change in interest rate outlook remains to be clarified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7874ea6871186ecc36929cf4ac0023bc\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Before the market | \"Four Witches Day\" arrives! Another test for U.S. stocks tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBefore the market | \"Four Witches Day\" arrives! Another test for U.S. stocks tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-17 19:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 17th, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated and rose. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.67%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.18%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694311698033b0036af0169ff8b2eec\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After experiencing the sharp decline of U.S. stocks last night, the U.S. stock market once again ushered in a big test tonight-\"Four Witches Day\". \"Four Witches Day\" refers to the maturity settlement date of derivative financial instruments on the third Friday of the quarterly month (March, June, September and December) in the US market, and the price on that day is expected to fluctuate greatly.</p><p>According to industry statistics, this time, options with a nominal scale of $3.4 trillion will expire, which is similar to that of December last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Rocky Fishman of, noted that the selling of a large number of bearish positions could trigger a major turning point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd26fd96d9ea70ca681e5c8591634ed2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>The pre-market gains of popular Chinese stocks continued to expand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>It rose by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>rose by more than 7%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 4% before the market, and the company lowered its profit forecast for the third quarter;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku</a>It rose by more than 5% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Reach a TV shopping cooperation agreement with it.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.29%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 1.14%, and French CAC40 rose 1.27%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c98c13582a5fdca1bcc5acfe7cf892\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.36% to $117.17/barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.17% to $119.61/barrel.</p><p>Despite demand concerns raised by a multinational rate hike this week, crude oil supplies are likely to remain tight due to limited spare capacity from producers, coupled with potential new sanctions on Iraq limiting the downside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de5ddfbdbf33bf359f98924ea511528c\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/566c8e22c10b7f3c34ee55b3dcdb0034\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gold</p><p>Gold futures were lower, down 0.05% at $1,849/oz as of press time.</p><p>International gold prices fell as a stronger US dollar and higher US Treasury Bond yields hit demand for US dollar-denominated gold, but the impact of the change in interest rate outlook remains to be clarified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7874ea6871186ecc36929cf4ac0023bc\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124502900","content_text":"6月17日，美股三大股指期货震荡上扬，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.67%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨1.18%；标普500指数期货涨0.87%。在经历昨夜美股的大幅回落之后，今夜美股市场再次迎来一大考验——“四巫日”。“四巫日”是指美国市场于季月（三月、六月、九月、十二月）第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，预期当天价格会有较大的波动。而据业内统计，这一次将有名义规模达到3.4万亿美元的期权到期，这一规模与去年12月时相近。高盛的Rocky Fishman指出，大量看跌头寸的卖出可能会引发一个重大转折点。盘前行情热门中概股盘前涨幅持续扩大，阿里巴巴涨超10%，京东涨超9%，拼多多、理想汽车、小鹏汽车涨超7%；Adobe盘前跌超4%，公司下调三季度盈利预期；Roku盘前涨超5%，沃尔玛与其达成电视购物合作协议。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨1.29%，英国富时100涨1.14%，法国CAC40涨1.27%。原油原油期货走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.36%，报117.17美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.17%，报119.61美元/桶。尽管本周多国加息引发需求担忧，但由于生产商的闲置产能有限，原油供应可能会继续紧张，加上潜在对伊新制裁限制了下行空间。黄金黄金期货走低，截止发稿，跌0.05%，报1849美元/盎司。国际金价下跌，因美元走强和美国国债收益率上升打击了对以美元计价的黄金的需求，但利率前景变化带来的影响尚待明朗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9095820206,"gmtCreate":1644883605315,"gmtModify":1676533971220,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095820206","repostId":"1118966088","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118966088","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644881462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118966088?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-15 07:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | 13F reports are coming out one after another! What did top institutions buy in Q4?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118966088","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股主要指数连跌三日；疫苗股、中概教育股普跌；Sea盘中一度重挫近20%，创上市以来最大跌幅；美油与布伦特原油均创7年新高；伯克希尔、桥水、高瓴等多家全球顶级机构四季度持仓出炉>>>海外市场美股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>Major U.S. stock indexes fell for three consecutive days; Vaccine stocks and China Education stocks generally fell; Sea once plunged nearly 20% in intraday trading, the biggest decline since its listing; US oil and Brent crude oil both hit 7-year highs;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Bridgewater, Hillhouse and many other top global institutions released their positions in the fourth quarter>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: three major indexes fell for three consecutive days, vaccine stocks broadly fell</b></p><p>Investors are keeping a close eye on Russia-Ukraine tensions and bracing for possible actions by the Federal Reserve in response to soaring inflation. St. Louis Fed President Bullard says the central bank needs to fight inflation more aggressively. By the close, the Dow was down 0.49% at 34,566.17; The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 4,401.67; The Nasdaq closed almost flat (down 0.24 points) at 13,790.92.</p><p>Vaccine stocks broadly fell, with data showing that the Omicron epidemic is receding, and last Friday, U.S. health regulators said they would delay the approval of COVID-19 vaccines for children under the age of 5. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>Shares fell nearly 12%, making them the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>down 1.93%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>down 9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax, S.</a>down 11.42%.</p><p><b>Most of the popular Chinese conceptual stocks fell, with education stocks among the top losers</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>up 7.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>up 0.64%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>up 0.09%, Weibo fell 1.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 1.40%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>down 2.31%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>down 7.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>down 3.72%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 3.29%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 0.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>down 1.99%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>down 3.03%.</p><p><b>US oil and Brent crude both hit 7-year highs as Russia-Ukraine tensions push up oil prices</b></p><p>Crude oil futures moved higher on Monday and closed at their highest price in more than seven years. Traders are closely watching the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation, fearing it could disrupt already strained global crude oil markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery rose $2.36, or 2.5%, to close at $95.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since September 3, 2014.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed 1.5% higher at highest close in 3 months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed at their highest price in nearly three months on Monday. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has boosted the demand for safe-haven investment in gold. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $27.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1,869.40 an ounce, the highest closing price since Nov. 17.</p><p><b>European stocks closed down across the board, with major indexes all down more than 2%</b></p><p>The situation in Ukraine was tense, the market risk aversion was heating up, and European stocks closed down across the board. Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.03%, France's CAC40 index fell 2.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 1.72%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 2.53%, Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 2.07% and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 2.14%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>How to keep the Fed's anti-inflation credibility? Hawkish policymakers advocate pre-rate hike</b></a><b></b></p><p>James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the central bank needs to push ahead with the rate hike plan to highlight its credibility in fighting inflation. Bullard reiterated his view that the Fed should rate hike 100 basis points by July 1 and start shrinking its balance sheet in the second quarter in response to the worst inflation in 40 years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. consumer short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly fall for the first time in more than a year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Consumer one-year inflation expectations fell for the first time since October 2020, falling from 6.0% in December to 5.8% in January, according to the New York Fed's monthly survey of consumer expectations. Three-year inflation expectations fell to 3.5% in January from 4.0% in December, the biggest monthly decline since the survey was launched in 2013.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501832\" target=\"_blank\"><b>OPEC Secretary-General: Low investment levels and geopolitical risks are pushing up oil prices</b></a><b></b></p><p>The secretary-general of OPEC said that the insufficient level of large-scale investment and geopolitical risks are behind the current higher oil prices. Regarding the recent escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, he expressed optimism about the prospect of resolving the Ukraine crisis through diplomatic channels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>What a conflict would mean as Russia, Ukraine play pivotal roles in global raw material supplies</b></a><b></b></p><p>The United States has already warned that Russia could attack its neighbor as early as this week, even as Moscow has repeatedly denied it plans an invasion. Markets have been on edge for weeks, and if a conflict does erupt-or sanctions on Russia-could push energy and food prices further higher and plunge Europe into a severe supply crisis.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1186191515\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Berkshire Q4 Jiancang to do more Activision Blizzard, Apple remains the No. 1 Awkwardness</b></a><b></b></p><p>According to the 13F position report submitted by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, the company opened a position in the fourth quarter of last year to do more Activision Blizzard, holding 14.7 million shares and a stock market value of 975.2 million USD, accounting for 1.88% of Activision Blizzard's outstanding shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159400919\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Hillhouse partially overweight new energy in the fourth quarter, Li Auto ranks among the top ten positions for the first time</b></a><b></b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Hillhouse's ideal and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Positions increased by more than four times and three times respectively, and Southeast Asia's \"small<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>\"Sea has also entered Hillhouse's top ten heavyweight stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IMAB\">Heavenly Realm Creatures</a>Still in the top ten Awkwardness. Hillhouse cleared Ali and Station B in the quarter, significantly reducing its holdings in Pinduoduo by more than 90%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171843573\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Bridgewater Q4 Position: Significantly Increase the Holding of the Big Three of E-commerce in China, Clearance of Amazon and Netflix</b></a><b></b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor Rui Dalio, submitted its U.S. stock positions as of the end of the fourth quarter to the U.S. SEC (Form 13F). According to the document, the overall position of Bridgewater Fund in Q4 reached 17.202 billion USD, a decrease of 5.81% compared with the previous quarter, and the concentration of the top ten heavyweight stocks was 35.59%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1128166718\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance Tech Q4 Position: Significantly Overweight Roblox, Clearance AMD</b></a><b></b></p><p>Renaissance Technology Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor James Simmons, recently submitted its U.S. stock holdings as of the end of the fourth quarter of last year to the U.S. SEC (Table 13F). The market value of this fund, whose theme is technology growth, rose slightly to $80.38 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, a slight increase from the scale of $77.4 billion in the previous quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501757\" target=\"_blank\"><b>\"Southeast Asia Little Tencent\" Sea once plunged nearly 20% intraday, the biggest decline since its listing</b></a><b></b></p><p>This is the second one-day plunge in Sea this year. On January 4th this year, Tencent announced that it would reduce its equity in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%, and its voting rights are expected to drop to less than 10%. On that day, Sea fell by more than 11% in intraday trading, hitting a nine-month low. However, the plunge of Sea on Monday should have nothing to do with Tencent, the major shareholder. Tencent has not recently reduced its holdings of Sea. On the contrary, the App of Free Fire, a popular mobile game owned by Sea, has just been banned by the Indian government.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1126159791\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel accelerates automotive deployment, launches self-driving electric shuttle in the U.S. in 2024</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel's Autonomous Driving Division<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a>It announced that it will launch a strategic cooperation with Benteler Electric Vehicle Systems Company of Germany and Beep, a provider of autonomous driving solutions, and plan to launch autonomous electric shuttle buses in the United States in 2024.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211504402\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple's fine by Dutch antitrust agencies rose to 20 million euros</b></a><b></b></p><p>Apple's fine against the Dutch antitrust case has risen to 20 million euros. Because Apple's App Store still failed to liberalize the third-party payment system for Dutch dating software as required, the Dutch Consumer and Market Authority (ACM) imposed a fine of 5 million euros (about 5.7 million US dollars) on Apple for the fourth time on Monday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211506776\" target=\"_blank\"><b>AMD Announces Closing of All-Stock Transaction Acquisition of Xilinx</b></a><b></b></p><p>AMD's official website issued a statement on February 14th, saying that AMD completed the all-stock transaction acquisition of Xilinx today. Former Xilinx CEO Victor Peng will join AMD as president of the newly formed Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group (AECG). AMD expects the acquisition to have an impact on non-GAAP margins, non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow in the first year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211250039\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Sources say Intel may acquire Israeli Tower Semiconductor for $6 billion</b></a><b></b></p><p>US chip giant Intel is nearing a deal to buy Israeli chipmaker Tower Semiconductor for about $6 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Semiconductor).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | 13F reports are coming out one after another! What did top institutions buy in Q4?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | 13F reports are coming out one after another! What did top institutions buy in Q4?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-15 07:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>Major U.S. stock indexes fell for three consecutive days; Vaccine stocks and China Education stocks generally fell; Sea once plunged nearly 20% in intraday trading, the biggest decline since its listing; US oil and Brent crude oil both hit 7-year highs;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Bridgewater, Hillhouse and many other top global institutions released their positions in the fourth quarter>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: three major indexes fell for three consecutive days, vaccine stocks broadly fell</b></p><p>Investors are keeping a close eye on Russia-Ukraine tensions and bracing for possible actions by the Federal Reserve in response to soaring inflation. St. Louis Fed President Bullard says the central bank needs to fight inflation more aggressively. By the close, the Dow was down 0.49% at 34,566.17; The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 4,401.67; The Nasdaq closed almost flat (down 0.24 points) at 13,790.92.</p><p>Vaccine stocks broadly fell, with data showing that the Omicron epidemic is receding, and last Friday, U.S. health regulators said they would delay the approval of COVID-19 vaccines for children under the age of 5. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>Shares fell nearly 12%, making them the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>down 1.93%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>down 9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax, S.</a>down 11.42%.</p><p><b>Most of the popular Chinese conceptual stocks fell, with education stocks among the top losers</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>up 7.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>up 0.64%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>up 0.09%, Weibo fell 1.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 1.40%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>down 2.31%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>down 7.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>down 3.72%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 3.29%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 0.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>down 1.99%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>down 3.03%.</p><p><b>US oil and Brent crude both hit 7-year highs as Russia-Ukraine tensions push up oil prices</b></p><p>Crude oil futures moved higher on Monday and closed at their highest price in more than seven years. Traders are closely watching the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation, fearing it could disrupt already strained global crude oil markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery rose $2.36, or 2.5%, to close at $95.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since September 3, 2014.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed 1.5% higher at highest close in 3 months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed at their highest price in nearly three months on Monday. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has boosted the demand for safe-haven investment in gold. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $27.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1,869.40 an ounce, the highest closing price since Nov. 17.</p><p><b>European stocks closed down across the board, with major indexes all down more than 2%</b></p><p>The situation in Ukraine was tense, the market risk aversion was heating up, and European stocks closed down across the board. Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.03%, France's CAC40 index fell 2.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 1.72%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 2.53%, Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 2.07% and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 2.14%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>How to keep the Fed's anti-inflation credibility? Hawkish policymakers advocate pre-rate hike</b></a><b></b></p><p>James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the central bank needs to push ahead with the rate hike plan to highlight its credibility in fighting inflation. Bullard reiterated his view that the Fed should rate hike 100 basis points by July 1 and start shrinking its balance sheet in the second quarter in response to the worst inflation in 40 years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. consumer short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly fall for the first time in more than a year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Consumer one-year inflation expectations fell for the first time since October 2020, falling from 6.0% in December to 5.8% in January, according to the New York Fed's monthly survey of consumer expectations. Three-year inflation expectations fell to 3.5% in January from 4.0% in December, the biggest monthly decline since the survey was launched in 2013.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501832\" target=\"_blank\"><b>OPEC Secretary-General: Low investment levels and geopolitical risks are pushing up oil prices</b></a><b></b></p><p>The secretary-general of OPEC said that the insufficient level of large-scale investment and geopolitical risks are behind the current higher oil prices. Regarding the recent escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, he expressed optimism about the prospect of resolving the Ukraine crisis through diplomatic channels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>What a conflict would mean as Russia, Ukraine play pivotal roles in global raw material supplies</b></a><b></b></p><p>The United States has already warned that Russia could attack its neighbor as early as this week, even as Moscow has repeatedly denied it plans an invasion. Markets have been on edge for weeks, and if a conflict does erupt-or sanctions on Russia-could push energy and food prices further higher and plunge Europe into a severe supply crisis.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1186191515\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Berkshire Q4 Jiancang to do more Activision Blizzard, Apple remains the No. 1 Awkwardness</b></a><b></b></p><p>According to the 13F position report submitted by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, the company opened a position in the fourth quarter of last year to do more Activision Blizzard, holding 14.7 million shares and a stock market value of 975.2 million USD, accounting for 1.88% of Activision Blizzard's outstanding shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159400919\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Hillhouse partially overweight new energy in the fourth quarter, Li Auto ranks among the top ten positions for the first time</b></a><b></b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Hillhouse's ideal and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Positions increased by more than four times and three times respectively, and Southeast Asia's \"small<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>\"Sea has also entered Hillhouse's top ten heavyweight stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IMAB\">Heavenly Realm Creatures</a>Still in the top ten Awkwardness. Hillhouse cleared Ali and Station B in the quarter, significantly reducing its holdings in Pinduoduo by more than 90%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171843573\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Bridgewater Q4 Position: Significantly Increase the Holding of the Big Three of E-commerce in China, Clearance of Amazon and Netflix</b></a><b></b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor Rui Dalio, submitted its U.S. stock positions as of the end of the fourth quarter to the U.S. SEC (Form 13F). According to the document, the overall position of Bridgewater Fund in Q4 reached 17.202 billion USD, a decrease of 5.81% compared with the previous quarter, and the concentration of the top ten heavyweight stocks was 35.59%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1128166718\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance Tech Q4 Position: Significantly Overweight Roblox, Clearance AMD</b></a><b></b></p><p>Renaissance Technology Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor James Simmons, recently submitted its U.S. stock holdings as of the end of the fourth quarter of last year to the U.S. SEC (Table 13F). The market value of this fund, whose theme is technology growth, rose slightly to $80.38 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, a slight increase from the scale of $77.4 billion in the previous quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501757\" target=\"_blank\"><b>\"Southeast Asia Little Tencent\" Sea once plunged nearly 20% intraday, the biggest decline since its listing</b></a><b></b></p><p>This is the second one-day plunge in Sea this year. On January 4th this year, Tencent announced that it would reduce its equity in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%, and its voting rights are expected to drop to less than 10%. On that day, Sea fell by more than 11% in intraday trading, hitting a nine-month low. However, the plunge of Sea on Monday should have nothing to do with Tencent, the major shareholder. Tencent has not recently reduced its holdings of Sea. On the contrary, the App of Free Fire, a popular mobile game owned by Sea, has just been banned by the Indian government.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1126159791\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel accelerates automotive deployment, launches self-driving electric shuttle in the U.S. in 2024</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel's Autonomous Driving Division<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a>It announced that it will launch a strategic cooperation with Benteler Electric Vehicle Systems Company of Germany and Beep, a provider of autonomous driving solutions, and plan to launch autonomous electric shuttle buses in the United States in 2024.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211504402\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple's fine by Dutch antitrust agencies rose to 20 million euros</b></a><b></b></p><p>Apple's fine against the Dutch antitrust case has risen to 20 million euros. Because Apple's App Store still failed to liberalize the third-party payment system for Dutch dating software as required, the Dutch Consumer and Market Authority (ACM) imposed a fine of 5 million euros (about 5.7 million US dollars) on Apple for the fourth time on Monday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211506776\" target=\"_blank\"><b>AMD Announces Closing of All-Stock Transaction Acquisition of Xilinx</b></a><b></b></p><p>AMD's official website issued a statement on February 14th, saying that AMD completed the all-stock transaction acquisition of Xilinx today. Former Xilinx CEO Victor Peng will join AMD as president of the newly formed Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group (AECG). AMD expects the acquisition to have an impact on non-GAAP margins, non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow in the first year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211250039\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Sources say Intel may acquire Israeli Tower Semiconductor for $6 billion</b></a><b></b></p><p>US chip giant Intel is nearing a deal to buy Israeli chipmaker Tower Semiconductor for about $6 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Semiconductor).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药",".DJI":"道琼斯","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BNTX":"BioNTech SE",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118966088","content_text":"摘要：美股主要指数连跌三日；疫苗股、中概教育股普跌；Sea盘中一度重挫近20%，创上市以来最大跌幅；美油与布伦特原油均创7年新高；伯克希尔、桥水、高瓴等多家全球顶级机构四季度持仓出炉>>>海外市场美股收盘：三大指数连跌三日，疫苗股普跌投资者密切关注俄乌紧张局势，并准备应对美联储为应对通胀飙升可能采取的行动。圣路易斯联储主席布拉德称央行需要更积极地对抗通胀。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.49%，报34,566.17点；标普500指数跌0.38%，报4,401.67 点；纳斯达克指数几乎平收（跌0.24点），报13,790.92点。疫苗股普跌，数据显示Omicron疫情正在消退，且上周五美国卫生监管机构表示将推迟为5岁以下儿童批准新冠疫苗。截止收盘，Moderna股价下跌近12%，成为标普500指数中表现最差的股票，辉瑞下跌1.93%，BioNTech下跌9.61%，诺瓦瓦克斯下跌11.42%。热门中概股多数下跌，教育股跌幅居前滴滴涨7.27%，京东涨0.64%，百度涨0.09%，微博跌1.28%，拼多多跌1.40%，哔哩哔哩跌2.31%，高途跌7.66%，好未来跌3.72%，新东方跌3.29%，网易跌1.06%，阿里巴巴跌0.27%，腾讯音乐跌1.99%，爱奇艺跌3.03%。俄乌紧张局势推高油价，美油与布伦特原油均创7年新高原油期货周一走高，并创下7年多以来的最高收盘价。交易员密切关注俄乌局势的发展，担心它可能会扰乱已经紧张的全球原油市场。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨2.36美元，涨幅2.5%，收于每桶95.46美元，创2014年9月3日以来的最高收盘价。黄金期货收高1.5%，创3个月来最高收盘价黄金期货周一创近3个月来的最高收盘价。俄乌关系紧张化提振了对黄金的避险投资需求。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格上涨27.30美元，涨幅1.5%，收于每盎司1869.40美元，创11月17日以来的最高收盘价。欧股全线收跌，主要股指均跌逾2%乌克兰局势紧张，市场避险情绪升温，欧股全线收跌。德国DAX30指数跌2.03%，法国CAC40指数跌2.27%，英国富时100指数跌1.72%，西班牙IBEX35指数跌2.53%，意大利富时MIB指数跌2.07%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌2.14%。国际宏观如何保住美联储抗通胀公信力？鹰派决策者主张前置加息圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德称，央行需要推进加息计划来凸显其对抗通胀的公信力。布拉德重申了他的观点，即为应对40年来最严重的通胀美联储应该在7月1日之前加息100个基点，并在第二季开始缩减资产负债表。美国消费者短期通胀预期意外下降，为逾一年来首次据纽约联储对消费者预期的月度调查，消费者一年期通胀预期自2020年10月以来首次下降，从12月的6.0%降至1月的5.8%。三年期通胀预期从12月的4.0%降至1月的3.5%，是自2013年开展调查以来的最大月度降幅。OPEC秘书长：投资水平偏低和地缘政治风险正在推高油价OPEC秘书长表示大规模投资水平不足和地缘政治风险是当前油价走高的幕后推手，对于近期不断升级的俄乌冲突，他表示对通过外交途径化解乌克兰危机的前景感到乐观。俄罗斯、乌克兰在全球原材料供应中举足轻重，爆发冲突将意味着什么美国已经警告称，俄罗斯可能会最早在本周攻击其邻国，尽管莫斯科一再否认其计划入侵。市场几周来一直处于紧张状态，如果真的发生冲突--或是对俄罗斯制裁--可能会推动能源和食品价格进一步走高，并令欧洲陷入严重的供应危机。公司新闻伯克希尔Q4建仓做多动视暴雪，苹果仍为头号重仓股巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周一向美国证监会（SEC）提交的13F持仓报告显示，该公司去年四季度四季度建仓做多动视暴雪，持股1470万，持股市值9.752亿美元，在动视暴雪流通股中占比1.88%。高瓴四季度部分加码新能源，理想汽车首次跻身十大持仓四季度，高瓴的理想和小鹏汽车持仓分别增长四倍和三倍多，东南亚 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