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Sinlin

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2022-10-29

$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go

2022-05-18

👌🏻

There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?

2023-01-11

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ will see

2022-01-23

wow

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-03

Sell then

JPMorgan: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.

2022-10-09

$标普500(.SPX)$2600？

2022-07-18

wow

Morgan Stanley: Even if the U.S. escapes the recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall

2022-07-18

👌🏻

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-15

nice

Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's "turn" time!

2022-04-06

en

CICC: Who's selling? Looking at the Recent Fluctuation of Hong Kong Stocks from the Funding Side

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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As of Friday, the U.S. stock index has been negative for three consecutive times, and the S&P 500 index has fallen to 3,852.36 points.</p><p>Previously, Nomura's model showed that if the S&P 500 closes below 3933, large fund managers may be forced to abandon their previous bullish stance, with a probability of shorting as high as 83%. With the S&P 500 down more than 2% in a single day, quantitative funds may need to dump $30 billion in global equity futures.</p><p>And the media lately said,<b>The world's biggest fund managers will sell off up to $100 billion in stocks in the final weeks of the year.</b>Behind this, the recent rally in U.S. stocks has pushed up its valuations relative to other asset classes, forcing fund managers with strict allocation mandates to sell shares to meet their targets.</p><p>JPMorgan and StoneX Group, an institutional-level financial services platform, said bonds could be beneficiaries of equity selling by sovereign wealth funds, pensions and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their holdings in fixed-income assets.</p><p>JPMorgan estimates that,<b>By the end of December, sovereign wealth funds are likely to sell off about $29 billion in equities, while defined-income pension plans in the United States need to shift up to $70 billion from equities to bonds to meet their long-term holdings targets.</b></p><p>As stalwarts of the investment community, pension and sovereign wealth funds typically rebalance their market exposure every quarter to achieve a 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio.</p><p>Vincent Deluard, macro strategist at StoneX, said:</p><p>\"The recent stock market pullback and bond market rally fit the rebalancing assumptions.\"\"Investors have had to sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to the target. It makes sense that this continues through the end of the year.\" He expects that some rebalancing has occurred this week.</p><p>After the S&P 500 dropped about 6% from its November high, analysts expect this to exacerbate an automatic forced sell-off of about $30 billion in quantitative funds.</p><p>According to JPMorgan calculations,<b>Japan's $1.6 trillion GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, will have to sell $17 billion of shares to restore its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian oil fund could shift $12 billion from stocks to bonds.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the coming weeks, big global institutions will sell stocks, amounting to 100 billion dollars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the coming weeks, big global institutions will sell stocks, amounting to 100 billion dollars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-18 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>Since Powell made it clear on Wednesday that policymakers will continue to aggressively tighten policies at the risk of recession, the selling of U.S. stocks has intensified like a snowball. As of Friday, the U.S. stock index has been negative for three consecutive times, and the S&P 500 index has fallen to 3,852.36 points.</p><p>Previously, Nomura's model showed that if the S&P 500 closes below 3933, large fund managers may be forced to abandon their previous bullish stance, with a probability of shorting as high as 83%. With the S&P 500 down more than 2% in a single day, quantitative funds may need to dump $30 billion in global equity futures.</p><p>And the media lately said,<b>The world's biggest fund managers will sell off up to $100 billion in stocks in the final weeks of the year.</b>Behind this, the recent rally in U.S. stocks has pushed up its valuations relative to other asset classes, forcing fund managers with strict allocation mandates to sell shares to meet their targets.</p><p>JPMorgan and StoneX Group, an institutional-level financial services platform, said bonds could be beneficiaries of equity selling by sovereign wealth funds, pensions and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their holdings in fixed-income assets.</p><p>JPMorgan estimates that,<b>By the end of December, sovereign wealth funds are likely to sell off about $29 billion in equities, while defined-income pension plans in the United States need to shift up to $70 billion from equities to bonds to meet their long-term holdings targets.</b></p><p>As stalwarts of the investment community, pension and sovereign wealth funds typically rebalance their market exposure every quarter to achieve a 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio.</p><p>Vincent Deluard, macro strategist at StoneX, said:</p><p>\"The recent stock market pullback and bond market rally fit the rebalancing assumptions.\"\"Investors have had to sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to the target. It makes sense that this continues through the end of the year.\" He expects that some rebalancing has occurred this week.</p><p>After the S&P 500 dropped about 6% from its November high, analysts expect this to exacerbate an automatic forced sell-off of about $30 billion in quantitative funds.</p><p>According to JPMorgan calculations,<b>Japan's $1.6 trillion GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, will have to sell $17 billion of shares to restore its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian oil fund could shift $12 billion from stocks to bonds.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677736\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677736","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174963451","content_text":"作者：王眉自鲍威尔周三明确表示政策制定者将冒着衰退的风险继续积极收紧政策后，美股的抛售就像滚雪球一样加剧，截至周五，美股指三连阴，标普500指数跌至3852.36点。此前野村的模型显示，如果标普500收于3933点以下，大型基金经理可能会被迫放弃此前的看涨姿态，做空的概率高达83%。在标普500单日下跌超过2%的情况下，量化基金可能需要抛售300亿美元的全球股票期货。而媒体最新称，全球最大的基金经理将在今年的最后几周抛售高达1000亿美元的股票。这背后，美股最近的反弹推高了其相对于其他资产类别的估值，迫使有严格配置授权的基金经理出售股票以实现目标。摩根大通和机构级金融服务平台StoneX集团称，债券可能是主权财富基金、养老金和平衡型共同基金抛售股票的受益者，这些基金希望补充其固定收益资产的持仓量。摩根大通估计，到12月结束时，主权财富基金可能会抛售约290亿美元的股票，而美国的固定收益养老金计划需要将至多700亿美元的资金从股票转向债券，以实现其长期持仓目标。作为投资界的中坚力量，养老金和主权财富基金通常每个季度都会重新平衡其市场敞口，以实现60%的股票和40%的债券组合。StoneX宏观策略师 Vincent Deluard表示：“近期股市回调和债市反弹符合再平衡假设。”“投资者不得不卖出股票，购买债券，以回到目标。这种情况持续到今年年底是说得通的。”他预计，部分再平衡已在本周发生。在标普500从11月的高点下跌约6%之后，分析师预计，这将加剧量化基金约300亿美元的自动强制抛售。根据摩根大通的计算，日本1.6万亿美元的GPIF（全球最大的养老基金）将不得不出售170亿美元的股票，以恢复其目标资产配置。规模1.3万亿美元的挪威石油基金可能会将120亿美元从股票转向债券。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967981900,"gmtCreate":1670249065100,"gmtModify":1676538328938,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967981900","repostId":"1170885543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170885543","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670244163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170885543?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 20:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | The three major stock index futures fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared 25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170885543","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.43%，标普500指数期货跌0.53%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前走强，哔哩哔哩涨近16%，小鹏汽车涨近1","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5th, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated lower. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 0.47%, the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.43%, and the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.53%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2161cab0a418516d0bcdd5d22d484a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Up nearly 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>It rose by more than 4%;</p><p>China-related ETFs surged before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">Double Long CSI China Internet Equity ETFETF-Direxion</a>It rose by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">Triple Long FTSE China ETF-Direxion</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">China Overseas Internet ETF-KraneShares</a>Up more than 4%, $China Large Cap ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>(FXI) $ rose nearly 2%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once fell by more than 5% to $184.83 before the market. Some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying on Monday that Tesla plans to cut the Model Y output of its Shanghai factory in December by more than 20% compared with November;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It rose by more than 5% before the market, and the company announced that the antibody persistence data was positive 12 months after receiving a single dose of chikungunya vaccine candidate VLA1553;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IOVA\">Iovance Biotherapeutics</a>It rose by more than 25% before the market. According to the data, the stock was bought 10 million shares by the company's director Rothbaum Wayne P on December 2nd;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It rose by more than 2% before the market, and it was rumored that the Saudi Crown Prince would invest about $500 million in Credit Suisse's investment banking department.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Most major European stock indexes fell. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.2%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48e1a91227f3a262079e445d7ad819\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 2.48% to $81.96/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 2.45% to $87.67/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216cdee1000faeea06d8756a7f8c3d50\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"831\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd6cf8ef98e1c740d97a8ca688110c8\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, falling 0.12% to $1,807.5/oz as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e789dfa2f7f080dc114fefa80bd8007f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | The three major stock index futures fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared 25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | The three major stock index futures fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared 25%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-05 20:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5th, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated lower. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 0.47%, the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.43%, and the S&P 500 futures fell by 0.53%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2161cab0a418516d0bcdd5d22d484a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Up nearly 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>It rose by more than 4%;</p><p>China-related ETFs surged before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">Double Long CSI China Internet Equity ETFETF-Direxion</a>It rose by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">Triple Long FTSE China ETF-Direxion</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">China Overseas Internet ETF-KraneShares</a>Up more than 4%, $China Large Cap ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>(FXI) $ rose nearly 2%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once fell by more than 5% to $184.83 before the market. Some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying on Monday that Tesla plans to cut the Model Y output of its Shanghai factory in December by more than 20% compared with November;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It rose by more than 5% before the market, and the company announced that the antibody persistence data was positive 12 months after receiving a single dose of chikungunya vaccine candidate VLA1553;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IOVA\">Iovance Biotherapeutics</a>It rose by more than 25% before the market. According to the data, the stock was bought 10 million shares by the company's director Rothbaum Wayne P on December 2nd;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It rose by more than 2% before the market, and it was rumored that the Saudi Crown Prince would invest about $500 million in Credit Suisse's investment banking department.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Most major European stock indexes fell. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.2%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48e1a91227f3a262079e445d7ad819\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 2.48% to $81.96/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 2.45% to $87.67/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216cdee1000faeea06d8756a7f8c3d50\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"831\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd6cf8ef98e1c740d97a8ca688110c8\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, falling 0.12% to $1,807.5/oz as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e789dfa2f7f080dc114fefa80bd8007f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170885543","content_text":"12月5日，美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.43%，标普500指数期货跌0.53%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前走强，哔哩哔哩涨近16%，小鹏汽车涨近13%，蔚来涨超6%，理想汽车涨超5%，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东涨超4%；中国相关ETF盘前大涨，两倍做多沪深中国互联网股票ETFETF-Direxion涨超9%，三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion涨超5%，中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares涨超4%，$中国大盘股ETF-iShares(FXI)$涨近2%；特斯拉盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%；Valneva盘前涨超5%，公司宣布在接种单剂基孔肯雅热候选疫苗VLA1553 12个月后，抗体持久性数据呈阳性；Iovance Biotherapeutics盘前涨超25%，资料显示，该股在12月2日获公司董事Rothbaum Wayne P净买入1000万股；瑞士信贷盘前涨超2%，传沙特王储将向瑞信投行部门投资约5亿美元。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指多数走低，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.6%，英国富时100涨0.2%，法国CAC40跌0.6%。原油原油期货持续走高，截止发稿，WTI原油涨2.48%，报81.96美元/桶；布伦特原油涨2.45%，报87.67美元/桶。黄金黄金期货走低，截止发稿，跌0.12%，报1807.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964077408,"gmtCreate":1670042610604,"gmtModify":1676538294664,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell then","listText":"Sell then","text":"Sell then","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964077408","repostId":"2288043967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2288043967","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669996089,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288043967?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 23:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288043967","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","content":"<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised to $410 from $380.</body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">媒体滚动</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 23:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised to $410 from $380.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPGI":"标普全球"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288043967","content_text":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPGI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982019949,"gmtCreate":1667041042282,"gmtModify":1676537853341,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$2600？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914672471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916145120,"gmtCreate":1664544900460,"gmtModify":1676537474907,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯","listText":"😯","text":"😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916145120","repostId":"1104601460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919548360,"gmtCreate":1663827770950,"gmtModify":1676537345461,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919548360","repostId":"1171146521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171146521","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1663821856,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171146521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 12:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Who understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171146521","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"十年港股两茫茫，杀价值，灭投机。千股阴跌，无处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，问安好，道珍重。牛市幽梦难还乡，睡不着，吃不香。望盘无言，惟有泪千行。料得年年新低处，明月夜，又平仓。是什么，把善良单纯的股民，硬","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Ten years of Hong Kong stocks have been confused, killing value and extinguishing speculation. Thousands of shadows fell, and there was nowhere to speak of desolation. Even if meeting should not know, say hello, Tao treasure. The bull market dream is difficult to return home, can't sleep, and can't eat well. Looking at the plate speechless, only a thousand lines of tears. Expect new lows every year, bright moon night, and close positions.</b></p><p>What is it that forces the kind and pure investors into poets and poets with thousands of melancholy and broken hearts?</p><p>It is Hong Kong stocks, which is the bleak market that has been falling and falling since the beginning of last year.</p><p>If the downturn of A shares during this period makes you suffer and depressed, then please take a look at Hong Kong stocks, and take a look at the miserable situation that has fallen from last year to now. Maybe you won't feel so uncomfortable.</p><p>Looking back on the trend of Hong Kong stock market in the past two years, even many professional institutions were unexpected.</p><p><b>Before, we also thought that after the regulatory attitude warmed up and the epidemic subsided, the darkest moment of Hong Kong stocks could pass, but we didn't expect that Hong Kong stocks, which were sandwiched between the epidemic, the economy and the changes in Sino-US relations, were far helpless than everyone thought.</b></p><p>All kinds of reality have exceeded the original expectations and have not changed, eventually leading to hopes and disappointments.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market is really too difficult! Compared with it, A-shares are not worthy of carrying shoes.</p><p><b>01. Reflection, what happened to Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p>Looking back this year, Hong Kong stocks have fallen all the way from their highs, and they have fallen by more than 20%. What's worse is that it has been falling since the beginning of last year. If it comes down from last year's high, the decline will even exceed 40%, and Hang Seng Technology stocks will even fall by almost 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6973cb9e4394c500a382423c7d34c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>From their respective highest points to now, Ali's respective market value has evaporated by HK$ 4 trillion, and Meituan has evaporated by 1.8 trillion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>And other giants are also hundreds of billions and hundreds of billions of evaporation.</p><p>There are also other industries such as real estate, medical care, education, etc. The decline is even worse than the previous. The specific evaporation is difficult for people to dismantle.</p><p><b>These were the most proud and sought after industries in the market in those days, but now things have changed, and the difference between clouds and mud is really shocking.</b></p><p>These are the times \"<b>A century of great changes</b>\"The most remarkable testimony.</p><p>On reflection,<b>The most important thing is that everyone's understanding of the depth of impact and the time span of this big change is indeed not deep enough.</b></p><p>Not only us, look at those fund bosses who manage tens of billions, some of whom are veterans who have been in the stock market for more than ten years, and their losses are not much better than those of ordinary investors. In recent years, those star managers who have seized the dividends of a certain industry have emerged from nowhere, and the performance of the funds they manage has even fallen worse than that of retail investors, so the Christians are calling them to do things, such as the performance of some A-share fund managers below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a751af4ae494059dc76fd6efa1ab66\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, in the chess game, it is really difficult to deeply recognize the changes outside the game. Human nature is like this, regardless of high and low.</p><p><b>If you write a book on the development and changes of the Hong Kong stock market in recent years and the analysis of the reasons behind it, and use it as a textbook to study in universities, I believe it will never drop in price.</b></p><p>But reflection is necessary. Let's briefly talk about the core:</p><p><b>Reflection One,</b>Under the changes of geopolitics, economic background, policy supervision and other changes of Hong Kong stocks, as well as the special financial market status of Hong Kong stocks and the industry structure of listed companies, its operation logic is definitely not explained by any simple theory.</p><p>What determines the lowest operating logic of a financial market is only the country behind it and the economic development and changes of the country, not some industry sectors, let alone some individual stocks.</p><p>The right to speak of the Hong Kong stock market itself is too small, and now it is completely beyond itself. The impact of the macro background of changes in Sino-US relations on Hong Kong stocks is one of the most critical reasons. It is really difficult to interpret and analyze in depth here, and everyone knows it.</p><p>Anyway, we're too caught up in the inertia of our past thinking.</p><p><b>Reflection II,</b>Another direct factor behind the financial cycle is the performance expectation and valuation logic of listed companies, which is not only related to the economic cycle, but also to policy changes. Now China is in the stage of economic transformation, and the best stage of incremental dividends of the Internet has long passed. The real estate industry is also gone with the saturation of urbanization and the arrival of an aging society, and medical care, which accumulated in the crazy feast in 2019, is actually in the digestion stage now.</p><p><b>The Internet, real estate, and education have been analyzed too much to be lazy to talk about. Let's talk about the big medical care. There were too many problems in this sector in the past. Although it will not be liquidated now, it is real to squeeze bubbles and verify performance.</b></p><p>Most obviously, a large amount of capital acquires medical pipeline business or assets are reintegrated and packaged into companies that meet the listing standards of Hong Kong stocks, and then go public, advocating future expectations and stimulating the bubble surge. Who dares to believe that all kinds of difficult and complicated diseases such as cancer, rare diseases, and Alzheimer's disease, which are insurmountable in front of human beings, have been dealt with in the laboratory for decades, but they have been acquired by capital three or two years after \"continuous breakthroughs are made, and the product is expected to be listed\"?</p><p>Look at those companies, how many of them started to cash out and run away or declared the failure of pipeline research and development after the listing lifting period, and how many of their stock prices were the last?</p><p>To say so much, I just want to explain that the reason why these sectors have fallen so much, besides the logical changes caused by the transformation of Sino-US relations, has a lot to do with the need to digest the excessive valuation bubble before. Of course, there is also the impact of the further contraction of their business in the future, which will lead to the contraction of valuation.</p><p><b>Reflection III,</b>Stock market investment has always been anti-human, don't go against the trend.</p><p>During this period of time, we have noticed that many famous large institutions have traveled to disclose the reduction of holdings.</p><p>For example, in August, Warren Buffett, the stock god, began to sell off 14-year-old stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Shares</a>, earning tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars; At the same time, SoftBank has again significantly reduced its holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Shares, exploding in tens of billions of dollars; Earlier, Naspers Group, the major shareholder of Tencent, also reduced its holdings in Tencent by a large amount, which was its third major reduction since 2018.</p><p>In fact, the reduction of giants does not mean that these target companies have no investment value from now on, but investment has always been for profit. The experience and level of these giants, their understanding of the macro situation, industry and company is definitely more in-depth than that of ordinary people.</p><p>Therefore, they gave us a good signal to reduce our holdings, at least not enough confidence in the market in the short term.<b>One big boss may not explain the problem. Several big bosses are doing the same thing at the same time, and the signal strength is obvious enough.</b></p><p>If we could understand this signal earlier, and make corresponding avoidance operations, and not go against the trend, perhaps we wouldn't be so deep now.</p><p><b>02. What do you think of the stock market next?</b></p><p>At present, the increasingly complex and changeable situation makes no theory or prediction model useful.</p><p>We are still optimistic about the future of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in the long run, but we don't seem to have much confidence in the short term.</p><p>Judging from the current pressures faced by Hong Kong stocks, we haven't seen any obvious changes, especially the relationship between the two countries. We can't predict what the result will be, and even how long the energy crisis caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the impact on the global economy will last. These can't be predicted, but what can be predicted is that the probability of the stock market continuing to fluctuate weakly for a period of time in the future is quite high.</p><p>At the same time, the reduction plans of the institutional bosses mentioned above have just started, and it will take quite some time to reduce their holdings to the set goal, which also means that they will still form a sustained selling pressure for the market.</p><p>In addition, in order to get rid of the extremely high inflation crisis, the world is still in a vigorous rate hike, which is another major incentive to affect the decline of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks fell so much because the US stocks are about to usher in an interest rate meeting tonight, and the market has a great consensus on adding 100 basis points. This is an overwhelming pressure, so the market will fall first in respect.</p><p>Now, the United States has made it very clear that inflation will not fall, and rate hike will not stop. However, the current inflation is still 8%, and the target of less than 3% is still huge. Therefore, there may be several rate hike in the future, which also means that the pressure on Hong Kong stocks will exist for a long time.</p><p>Therefore, the pressure faced by Hong Kong stocks now is really numerous and helpless.</p><p>Fortunately, among the current major weight sectors of Hong Kong stocks, most of the valuations from within the industry have been in line with the current performance level, and many leaders have long fallen below the average valuation level of the industry. Without these external troubles, they would have good attraction.</p><p>Now we see that the country is pouring a lot of policy dividends, and various policies to stabilize the economy are emerging one after another. Moreover, since the third quarter, more and more achievements have been made. Especially in non-real estate traditional infrastructure, various new infrastructure, hard technology industries and so on.</p><p><b>Objectively speaking, under so many internal and external pressures, China's economy can still maintain a good growth rate, which is stable and strong enough. Although the stock market has fallen a lot, the macroeconomic operation can't be said to be poor. We should treat the financial and economic aspects objectively and rationally, and there is no need to deny the whole thing when we see some negative ones.</b></p><p>Now, many giant companies have started repurchase plans at the individual stock level. Since Tencent announced the repurchase plan this year, hundreds of millions of repurchases every day are still in progress. At the same time, there are also AIA, Xiaomi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Many companies have announced their repurchase plans, and they have bought them back with live ammunition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13de920b326e80ba519d6465504e6a83\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the very least, the enterprise itself thinks it is undervalued.</p><p>In fact, in the long run, domestic policies are indeed warming up in the face of Internet platform, education, real estate and other regulatory attitudes. By virtue of their tracks, they are just needed in the future, especially the Internet, which is an indispensable infrastructure in the future digital age, and there is still huge room for development.</p><p><b>Don't look at the miserable fall now, but from a long-term perspective of five or even more than ten years, as long as these companies don't fall, there will still be a lot of room for growth in the future.</b></p><p>However, now everyone lacks long-term patience and sufficient confidence.</p><p>On the other hand, no matter how poor the market is, there will be structural markets. At present, there are still some industries that benefit from the current macro changes, such as traditional energy, materials, grain, high-end manufacturing, various supply chain services and other fields, which can still have good development dividends.</p><p>If you don't pay attention to those industries in the vortex, these sectors are a good safe haven.</p><p><b>03. Conclusion</b></p><p>Although the current environment of Hong Kong stocks and even for some time in the future, there will still be great pressure.</p><p>Some analysts believe that under the influence of rate hike, inflation in the United States has begun to slow down or even fall back. If the current rhythm of rate hike continues, it may be possible to almost reduce the inflation rate to the target position by the first half of next year, provided that the United States and even the global economy can be kept from collapsing.</p><p>But if rate hike causes the economy to collapse, it must be putting the cart before the horse on the goal, and by no means what rate hike wants. So now everyone expects the rate hike to be so full. Perhaps if the situation is better than expected by then, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks can usher in a rebound.</p><p>In addition, fundamentally, we still feel that it is more ideal and objective to objectively evaluate the current Hong Kong stock market with \"pain\". The reason is very simple. The financial market is related to the national fate, and the national fate is upward. The stock market is bound to rise in the long term, but it will fluctuate greatly in the short term due to various factors, that is, the so-called crisis that happened before.</p><p>As the most important window of China's opening-up to the outside world, the economic value and strategic significance of Hong Kong's financial market are extremely important. Therefore, although Hong Kong stocks are indeed in constant pain now, we should not lose hope for them. Maybe take it a little longer, and by next year, when the Fed enters the end of the rate hike, things will get better.</p><p>I hope that when the time comes, Hong Kong stocks can keep the clouds open and reproduce their glory.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-22 12:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Ten years of Hong Kong stocks have been confused, killing value and extinguishing speculation. Thousands of shadows fell, and there was nowhere to speak of desolation. Even if meeting should not know, say hello, Tao treasure. The bull market dream is difficult to return home, can't sleep, and can't eat well. Looking at the plate speechless, only a thousand lines of tears. Expect new lows every year, bright moon night, and close positions.</b></p><p>What is it that forces the kind and pure investors into poets and poets with thousands of melancholy and broken hearts?</p><p>It is Hong Kong stocks, which is the bleak market that has been falling and falling since the beginning of last year.</p><p>If the downturn of A shares during this period makes you suffer and depressed, then please take a look at Hong Kong stocks, and take a look at the miserable situation that has fallen from last year to now. Maybe you won't feel so uncomfortable.</p><p>Looking back on the trend of Hong Kong stock market in the past two years, even many professional institutions were unexpected.</p><p><b>Before, we also thought that after the regulatory attitude warmed up and the epidemic subsided, the darkest moment of Hong Kong stocks could pass, but we didn't expect that Hong Kong stocks, which were sandwiched between the epidemic, the economy and the changes in Sino-US relations, were far helpless than everyone thought.</b></p><p>All kinds of reality have exceeded the original expectations and have not changed, eventually leading to hopes and disappointments.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market is really too difficult! Compared with it, A-shares are not worthy of carrying shoes.</p><p><b>01. Reflection, what happened to Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p>Looking back this year, Hong Kong stocks have fallen all the way from their highs, and they have fallen by more than 20%. What's worse is that it has been falling since the beginning of last year. If it comes down from last year's high, the decline will even exceed 40%, and Hang Seng Technology stocks will even fall by almost 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6973cb9e4394c500a382423c7d34c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>From their respective highest points to now, Ali's respective market value has evaporated by HK$ 4 trillion, and Meituan has evaporated by 1.8 trillion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>And other giants are also hundreds of billions and hundreds of billions of evaporation.</p><p>There are also other industries such as real estate, medical care, education, etc. The decline is even worse than the previous. The specific evaporation is difficult for people to dismantle.</p><p><b>These were the most proud and sought after industries in the market in those days, but now things have changed, and the difference between clouds and mud is really shocking.</b></p><p>These are the times \"<b>A century of great changes</b>\"The most remarkable testimony.</p><p>On reflection,<b>The most important thing is that everyone's understanding of the depth of impact and the time span of this big change is indeed not deep enough.</b></p><p>Not only us, look at those fund bosses who manage tens of billions, some of whom are veterans who have been in the stock market for more than ten years, and their losses are not much better than those of ordinary investors. In recent years, those star managers who have seized the dividends of a certain industry have emerged from nowhere, and the performance of the funds they manage has even fallen worse than that of retail investors, so the Christians are calling them to do things, such as the performance of some A-share fund managers below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a751af4ae494059dc76fd6efa1ab66\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, in the chess game, it is really difficult to deeply recognize the changes outside the game. Human nature is like this, regardless of high and low.</p><p><b>If you write a book on the development and changes of the Hong Kong stock market in recent years and the analysis of the reasons behind it, and use it as a textbook to study in universities, I believe it will never drop in price.</b></p><p>But reflection is necessary. Let's briefly talk about the core:</p><p><b>Reflection One,</b>Under the changes of geopolitics, economic background, policy supervision and other changes of Hong Kong stocks, as well as the special financial market status of Hong Kong stocks and the industry structure of listed companies, its operation logic is definitely not explained by any simple theory.</p><p>What determines the lowest operating logic of a financial market is only the country behind it and the economic development and changes of the country, not some industry sectors, let alone some individual stocks.</p><p>The right to speak of the Hong Kong stock market itself is too small, and now it is completely beyond itself. The impact of the macro background of changes in Sino-US relations on Hong Kong stocks is one of the most critical reasons. It is really difficult to interpret and analyze in depth here, and everyone knows it.</p><p>Anyway, we're too caught up in the inertia of our past thinking.</p><p><b>Reflection II,</b>Another direct factor behind the financial cycle is the performance expectation and valuation logic of listed companies, which is not only related to the economic cycle, but also to policy changes. Now China is in the stage of economic transformation, and the best stage of incremental dividends of the Internet has long passed. The real estate industry is also gone with the saturation of urbanization and the arrival of an aging society, and medical care, which accumulated in the crazy feast in 2019, is actually in the digestion stage now.</p><p><b>The Internet, real estate, and education have been analyzed too much to be lazy to talk about. Let's talk about the big medical care. There were too many problems in this sector in the past. Although it will not be liquidated now, it is real to squeeze bubbles and verify performance.</b></p><p>Most obviously, a large amount of capital acquires medical pipeline business or assets are reintegrated and packaged into companies that meet the listing standards of Hong Kong stocks, and then go public, advocating future expectations and stimulating the bubble surge. Who dares to believe that all kinds of difficult and complicated diseases such as cancer, rare diseases, and Alzheimer's disease, which are insurmountable in front of human beings, have been dealt with in the laboratory for decades, but they have been acquired by capital three or two years after \"continuous breakthroughs are made, and the product is expected to be listed\"?</p><p>Look at those companies, how many of them started to cash out and run away or declared the failure of pipeline research and development after the listing lifting period, and how many of their stock prices were the last?</p><p>To say so much, I just want to explain that the reason why these sectors have fallen so much, besides the logical changes caused by the transformation of Sino-US relations, has a lot to do with the need to digest the excessive valuation bubble before. Of course, there is also the impact of the further contraction of their business in the future, which will lead to the contraction of valuation.</p><p><b>Reflection III,</b>Stock market investment has always been anti-human, don't go against the trend.</p><p>During this period of time, we have noticed that many famous large institutions have traveled to disclose the reduction of holdings.</p><p>For example, in August, Warren Buffett, the stock god, began to sell off 14-year-old stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Shares</a>, earning tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars; At the same time, SoftBank has again significantly reduced its holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Shares, exploding in tens of billions of dollars; Earlier, Naspers Group, the major shareholder of Tencent, also reduced its holdings in Tencent by a large amount, which was its third major reduction since 2018.</p><p>In fact, the reduction of giants does not mean that these target companies have no investment value from now on, but investment has always been for profit. The experience and level of these giants, their understanding of the macro situation, industry and company is definitely more in-depth than that of ordinary people.</p><p>Therefore, they gave us a good signal to reduce our holdings, at least not enough confidence in the market in the short term.<b>One big boss may not explain the problem. Several big bosses are doing the same thing at the same time, and the signal strength is obvious enough.</b></p><p>If we could understand this signal earlier, and make corresponding avoidance operations, and not go against the trend, perhaps we wouldn't be so deep now.</p><p><b>02. What do you think of the stock market next?</b></p><p>At present, the increasingly complex and changeable situation makes no theory or prediction model useful.</p><p>We are still optimistic about the future of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in the long run, but we don't seem to have much confidence in the short term.</p><p>Judging from the current pressures faced by Hong Kong stocks, we haven't seen any obvious changes, especially the relationship between the two countries. We can't predict what the result will be, and even how long the energy crisis caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the impact on the global economy will last. These can't be predicted, but what can be predicted is that the probability of the stock market continuing to fluctuate weakly for a period of time in the future is quite high.</p><p>At the same time, the reduction plans of the institutional bosses mentioned above have just started, and it will take quite some time to reduce their holdings to the set goal, which also means that they will still form a sustained selling pressure for the market.</p><p>In addition, in order to get rid of the extremely high inflation crisis, the world is still in a vigorous rate hike, which is another major incentive to affect the decline of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks fell so much because the US stocks are about to usher in an interest rate meeting tonight, and the market has a great consensus on adding 100 basis points. This is an overwhelming pressure, so the market will fall first in respect.</p><p>Now, the United States has made it very clear that inflation will not fall, and rate hike will not stop. However, the current inflation is still 8%, and the target of less than 3% is still huge. Therefore, there may be several rate hike in the future, which also means that the pressure on Hong Kong stocks will exist for a long time.</p><p>Therefore, the pressure faced by Hong Kong stocks now is really numerous and helpless.</p><p>Fortunately, among the current major weight sectors of Hong Kong stocks, most of the valuations from within the industry have been in line with the current performance level, and many leaders have long fallen below the average valuation level of the industry. Without these external troubles, they would have good attraction.</p><p>Now we see that the country is pouring a lot of policy dividends, and various policies to stabilize the economy are emerging one after another. Moreover, since the third quarter, more and more achievements have been made. Especially in non-real estate traditional infrastructure, various new infrastructure, hard technology industries and so on.</p><p><b>Objectively speaking, under so many internal and external pressures, China's economy can still maintain a good growth rate, which is stable and strong enough. Although the stock market has fallen a lot, the macroeconomic operation can't be said to be poor. We should treat the financial and economic aspects objectively and rationally, and there is no need to deny the whole thing when we see some negative ones.</b></p><p>Now, many giant companies have started repurchase plans at the individual stock level. Since Tencent announced the repurchase plan this year, hundreds of millions of repurchases every day are still in progress. At the same time, there are also AIA, Xiaomi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Many companies have announced their repurchase plans, and they have bought them back with live ammunition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13de920b326e80ba519d6465504e6a83\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the very least, the enterprise itself thinks it is undervalued.</p><p>In fact, in the long run, domestic policies are indeed warming up in the face of Internet platform, education, real estate and other regulatory attitudes. By virtue of their tracks, they are just needed in the future, especially the Internet, which is an indispensable infrastructure in the future digital age, and there is still huge room for development.</p><p><b>Don't look at the miserable fall now, but from a long-term perspective of five or even more than ten years, as long as these companies don't fall, there will still be a lot of room for growth in the future.</b></p><p>However, now everyone lacks long-term patience and sufficient confidence.</p><p>On the other hand, no matter how poor the market is, there will be structural markets. At present, there are still some industries that benefit from the current macro changes, such as traditional energy, materials, grain, high-end manufacturing, various supply chain services and other fields, which can still have good development dividends.</p><p>If you don't pay attention to those industries in the vortex, these sectors are a good safe haven.</p><p><b>03. Conclusion</b></p><p>Although the current environment of Hong Kong stocks and even for some time in the future, there will still be great pressure.</p><p>Some analysts believe that under the influence of rate hike, inflation in the United States has begun to slow down or even fall back. If the current rhythm of rate hike continues, it may be possible to almost reduce the inflation rate to the target position by the first half of next year, provided that the United States and even the global economy can be kept from collapsing.</p><p>But if rate hike causes the economy to collapse, it must be putting the cart before the horse on the goal, and by no means what rate hike wants. So now everyone expects the rate hike to be so full. Perhaps if the situation is better than expected by then, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks can usher in a rebound.</p><p>In addition, fundamentally, we still feel that it is more ideal and objective to objectively evaluate the current Hong Kong stock market with \"pain\". The reason is very simple. The financial market is related to the national fate, and the national fate is upward. The stock market is bound to rise in the long term, but it will fluctuate greatly in the short term due to various factors, that is, the so-called crisis that happened before.</p><p>As the most important window of China's opening-up to the outside world, the economic value and strategic significance of Hong Kong's financial market are extremely important. Therefore, although Hong Kong stocks are indeed in constant pain now, we should not lose hope for them. Maybe take it a little longer, and by next year, when the Fed enters the end of the rate hike, things will get better.</p><p>I hope that when the time comes, Hong Kong stocks can keep the clouds open and reproduce their glory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171146521","content_text":"十年港股两茫茫，杀价值，灭投机。千股阴跌，无处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，问安好，道珍重。牛市幽梦难还乡，睡不着，吃不香。望盘无言，惟有泪千行。料得年年新低处，明月夜，又平仓。是什么，把善良单纯的股民，硬生生逼成了愁绪万千、肝肠寸断的诗人骚客？是港股，是那从去年初到如今一直跌跌不休的惨淡行情。如果说这段时间A股的阴跌让你煎熬郁闷，那么请看一眼港股吧，看一眼从去年跌到现在已奄奄一息的惨状，或许你就不觉得那么难受了。回顾这两年港股市场的走势，即使是很多专业的机构都始料未及。我们此前也是，原想着监管态度转暖及疫情消退之后，港股最至暗的时刻就可以过去，却没想到，夹在疫情与经济、中美关系变局中间的港股，远比大家想象的无奈。现实的种种形势都超过了原先的预期，并且一直未见改观，最终导致一次次希望，又一次次失望。港股市场，实在太难了！A股跟它相比，提鞋都不配。01、反思，港股究竟怎么了？回顾今年来港股从高点一路下来，跌幅已超过20%。更惨的是，它是从去年初就开始下跌，如果从去年的高点下来，跌幅甚至超过了40%，恒生科技股甚至跌了差不多70%。腾讯、阿里从各自最高点到现在，各自市值蒸发了4万亿港元，美团蒸发了1.8万亿，京东、百度及其他巨头也都是几千亿、几千亿的蒸发。还有地产、医疗、教育等其他行业的跌幅更是一个比一个惨，具体的蒸发量，人艰不拆了。这些都是当年最值得骄傲、最被市场追捧的行业，如今却已物是人非，云泥之别，真的非常让人震撼。这些是时代“百年大变局”最显著的见证。反思起来，最主要的是对这个大变局所带来的影响深度和转变的时间跨度，大家的理解确实都不够深刻。不止我们，看看那些管理几十几百亿的基金大佬，有些还是在股市里熬炼十数年的老将，亏损的幅度并不比普通股民好多少。那些近几年抓住某个行业红利横空出世的明星经理，他们所管理的基金业绩甚至跌得比散户还惨，就差基民嚷嚷叫他们做事了，比如下面的一些A股基金经理的表现。所以身在棋局中，真的很难深刻认清局外变化，人性如此，不分高低贵贱。如果把这些年港股市场发展变化及背后原因分析写成一部书，给大学里当教材学习，相信都绝对不掉价。但反思是很必要的，简单讲一下核心的吧：反思一，港股在地缘政治、经济背景、政策监管等变化，以及港股本身特殊的金融市场地位和上市公司行业结构下，其运行逻辑绝对不是任何简单理论能解释得透。决定一个金融市场最底层运行逻辑的，只有它背后所依存的国家以及国家的经济发展变化，不是其中的某些行业板块，更不是部分个股。港股市场自身的话语权太小了，现在已经完全不是由其自身，中美关系变化的宏观大背景对港股带来的影响，这是最最关键的原因之一，这里真不好深入解读分析，大家懂的都懂。反正是我们太过于沉浸在过去的思维惯性上了。反思二，金融周期背后的另一个直接因素是上市公司的业绩预期与估值逻辑，这不仅关乎经济周期，还关乎政策变化。现在我国的处在经济转型的阶段，互联网的增量红利最好的阶段早就过去了，地产业也随着城镇化饱和和老龄化社会到来也高光不在，而医疗这些在2019年的疯狂盛宴中积累下来的巨大泡沫，到现在其实都是在消化阶段。互联网、地产、教育这些被分析太多懒得说了，再说下大医疗这块。这板块过去有太多的问题了，现在虽说不至于清算，但挤泡沫和业绩验证是实在的。最明显的，大量资本收购医疗管线业务或者资产再整合打包成符合港股上市标准的公司，然后上市，鼓吹未来预期，刺激泡沫激增。谁敢相信，那些横亘在人类面前难以逾越的癌症、稀罕病、阿尔兹海默症等各种疑难杂症在实验室里搞了几十年都没攻坚成果，却在被资本收购后三两年就“不断获得突破，产品上市有望”了？看看那些公司，有多少是上市解禁期过后，就开始套现跑路或者宣告管线研发失败的案例，有多少股价最后一地鸡毛的？说那么多，就是想说明，这些板块之所以跌那么多，除了中美关系转变导致的逻辑变化外，与本身之前过高的估值泡沫需要消化有很大关系，当然也有未来预期它们的业务进一步收缩导致估值收缩的影响。反思三，股市投资从来都是反人性的，不要跟趋势作对。这段时间以来，我们关注到有不少著名大机构都出行了披露减持的现象。比如8月份，股神巴菲特开始陆续抛售持有了14年之久的比亚迪股份，大赚数百亿港元；同时，软银也再度大幅减持了阿里巴巴股份，爆赚了几百亿美金；而稍早点的，是腾讯大股东Naspers集团也大笔减持腾讯股份，这是其2018年以来第三次大减持。其实巨头的减持并不代表这些标的公司从此没有投资价值，只是投资从来都是为逐利而来。这些巨头的经验和层次，它们对宏观形势、对行业、对公司的理解肯定比我们普通人要更加深入。所以，他们就给了我们很好减持信号，起码短期内对市场不够信心。一个大佬可能说明不了问题，几个大佬都是同一个时间做着同样的事，那信号强度已经足够明显了。如果我们能早点理解这个信号，并作出相应规避操作，不与趋势作对，或许现在不至于套那么深。02、接下来股市怎么看？当前越发复杂多变的形势局面，让任何理论和预测模型都没有用武之地。我们长期依然看好A股和港股市场的未来，只是短期内好像没太多信心。从当前港股所面临的种种压力看来，还没看到明显改观的变化，尤其两国关系的问题，我们无法预测到结果会如何，甚至俄乌局势引发的能源危机、对全球经济的冲击到底还持续到什么时候，这些都没办法预测，但可以预测的是，股市未来持续弱势震荡下去一段时间的概率挺大。同时，上面说的那些机构大佬的减持计划才开启不久，要减持到既定目标还要相当一段时间，这也意味着它们依然会对大市形成持续的抛压。此外，当前全球为了摆脱极端高通胀危机，还在大力加息中，这也是影响港股下跌的又一大诱因。今天港股跌那么多，就是因为今晚美股即将迎来议息会议，市场对加100基点的共识很大，这可是不堪重负的压力，所以市场就先跌为敬了。美国如今已经非常明确通胀不降，加息不止，而当前的通胀还有8%，与3%以内的目标还有巨大，所以未来可能还有几次加息，也意味着对港股的压力长期存在。所以说，港股现在面临的压力，真的又多又无奈。所幸的是，现在的港股几大权重板块中，从行业内部看多数的估值已经契合了当前的业绩水平，很多龙头早就跌破行业平均估值水平了，如果没有这些外部的困扰，它们是有不错的吸引力的。我们现在看到了国家正在倾注大量的政策红利，各种稳经济政策层出不穷，而且三季度以来，开始取得了越来越多的成绩。尤其是在非地产类的传统基建、各种新基建，硬科技产业等等。客观来讲，在如此多的内外部压力下，我国的经济还能维持幅度并不差的增速发展，已经足够稳健给力了。别看股市跌得比较多，但宏观经济运行真不能说差，我们应该对金融与经济面客观理性地区别看待，更没必要看到一些负面的就对整体全盘否定。现在，个股层面已经有很多巨头公司开启回购计划，腾讯今年宣布回购计划以来，动辄每天几个亿的回购，还在持续进行中，同时还有友邦、小米、长城汽车等很多公司都宣布了回购计划，并且真枪实弹下场回购。起码，企业本身是认为自己是低估的。其实从长期来看，现在国内政策面对互联网平台、教育、地产等监管态度确实有转暖趋势，凭借它们的所在赛道本就是属于未来刚需，尤其互联网这些更是未来数字时代不可或缺基础设施，发展空间还是巨大的。别看现在跌这么惨，但放在以五年甚至十年以上的长远视角看，只要这些公司不倒下，未来还是能有很大成长空间的。只是，现在大家缺乏长期的耐心和足够信心。另一方面，再差的市场里也会有结构的行情。当前还有一些受益于当前宏观变化的行业比如传统能源、材料、粮食、高端制造、各种供应链服务等领域，仍然能有不错的发展红利。如果不关注那些在漩涡中的行业，这些板块不失为不错的避风港。03、结语尽管当前港股的环境甚至未来一段时间，依然都会有较大的压力。有分析认为，在加息的影响下，美国的通胀已经开始趋缓甚至回落，如果按照目前的加息节奏下去，可能到明年上半年就差不多能把通胀率降到目标位置了，前提是能一直维持美国乃至全球经济不崩。但如果加息导致经济崩溃，肯定是对目标的本末倒置，绝不是加息想要的。所以现在大家把加息预期都打那么满，或许如果到时候形势好于预期，反而不排除包括港股在内能迎来反弹行情。此外，从根本上，我们还是觉得用“阵痛”来客观评价当前的港股市场更加理想客观。理由很简单，金融市场关乎国运，国运向上，股市长期必然向上，只是短期会受各种因素影响而出现大波动，也就是以前发生过的所谓的危机。香港作为中国对外开放最重要的窗口，其金融市场的经济价值和战略意义都无比重要，所以尽管现在港股确实是阵痛不断，我们不应该对其失去希望。也许再熬一熬，到了明年，美联储进入加息末端时，情况就变好了。希望到时候的港股，能守得云开，再现荣光吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331733,"gmtCreate":1658144319222,"gmtModify":1676536111831,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331733","repostId":"2252828739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252828739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658136215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252828739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: Even if the U.S. escapes the recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252828739","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Even if the U.S. economy escapes a recession, U.S. stocks are likely to continue falling, according to a big bear on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The contrarian rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escaped a recession whose likelihood is rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid fears that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will send the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Its models show the likelihood of a recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising jobless claims and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed is expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already pulled back from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are today the two main risk factors for equity returns, the strategist wrote in a July 15 report. Equity returns have remained good over the past year despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson is one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the market's recent decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Ongoing labor, raw material, inventory, and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose a risk to margins that is not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. Even if revenue growth estimates remain inevitable, a return to pre-pandemic net margin levels means a 10% hit to forward earnings per share, he said.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak before or before an earnings trough, and the market may be approaching a point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Even if the U.S. escapes the recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Even if the U.S. escapes the recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Even if the U.S. economy escapes a recession, U.S. stocks are likely to continue falling, according to a big bear on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The contrarian rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escaped a recession whose likelihood is rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid fears that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will send the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Its models show the likelihood of a recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising jobless claims and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed is expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already pulled back from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are today the two main risk factors for equity returns, the strategist wrote in a July 15 report. Equity returns have remained good over the past year despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson is one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the market's recent decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Ongoing labor, raw material, inventory, and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose a risk to margins that is not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. Even if revenue growth estimates remain inevitable, a return to pre-pandemic net margin levels means a 10% hit to forward earnings per share, he said.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak before or before an earnings trough, and the market may be approaching a point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252828739","content_text":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生衰退的概率为36%，而其他警告信号包括申领失业救济的人数上升以及职位空缺减少。鉴于美联储预计下周将再加息75个基点，投资者现在转向了企业财报季，看看在价格飙升和悲观情绪下，利润率是否具有韧性。高盛集团策略师David J． Kostin表示，他预计疲弱的宏观经济前景将威胁已经从纪录高位回落的企业盈利能力。这位策略师在7月 15日的报告中写道，利润率和借贷成本如今是股票回报率面临的两个主要风险因素。尽管面对投入成本上升、omicron疫情和供应链中断等问题，但股票回报率在过去一年中一直保持良好。摩根士丹利的Wilson是今年最坚定的股市空头之一，并准确预测到最近市场的下跌。他还表示，他对利润率压力将在第二季度之后有所缓解的预期持“怀疑态度”。“持续的劳动力、原材料、库存和运输成本压力再加上需求减速，这些因素对利润率构成的风险并未反映在市场普遍预期中，”Wilson说。他表示，即使收入增速预估保持必变，但净利润率水平回到疫情前的水平意味着远期每股收益将受到10%的冲击。另一方面，摩根大通的策略师们表示，投资者可以对夏季期间更具挑战性的盈利相关新闻视而不见。Mislav Matejka等策略师在报告中表示，股市通常会在盈利低谷到来或之前见顶，市场可能正在接近坏数据开始被视为好消息的时点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331467,"gmtCreate":1658144303959,"gmtModify":1676536111830,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331467","repostId":"2252346287","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252346287","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658139959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252346287?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 18:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Scared off by high gas prices? U.S. gasoline consumption sees 'off-season decline'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252346287","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于油价居高不下，且市场对美国经济衰退的预期走高，美国消费者对汽油的需求正在放缓。美国消费者对汽油的需求在过去4周中有3周呈下降趋势。截至7月8日，美国汽油需求四周滚动均值下跌了2.9%至每天873万","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline is slowing as oil prices remain high and market expectations for a U.S. recession move higher.</p><p>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline has been trending downward for 3 of the last 4 weeks. The four-week rolling average of U.S. gasoline demand fell 2.9% to 8.73 million barrels per day as of July 8.</p><p>This has raised concerns among some crude oil producers about gasoline demand. Some media said,<b>It is now the traditional road trip season that breaks out every summer, but gasoline consumption in the United States has experienced an unexpected \"off-season decline\".</b></p><p>As the chart below shows, the demand for U.S. gasoline plummeted except during the COVID lockdown in 2020, which is now the lowest seasonal demand in recent years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fe4c21175e461802dbcc7e77f2e5c8\" tg-width=\"671\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to some analysts, the gasoline consumed by Americans usually accounts for most of the market demand. At present, there is no sign that the demand of commuters will decrease. However, Linda Giesecke, an analyst at ESAI Energy LLC, said:<b>\"Seasonal growth is being cut\".</b></p><p>As oil prices remain high for a long time, consumer demand is actually falling correspondingly. John Kilduff, founding partner of energy hedge fund Again Capita, said:</p><p>California drivers seem to have reached the limit (of their patience with high gas prices), and if gas prices come down sharply one day, then there's a chance we could see demand pick up again. but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Demand growth for U.S. gasoline consumption was expected to slow, rather than fall directly, earlier this month.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Capital Markets also has a similar analysis in the latest report:</p><p>In 39 separate months over the past 30 years, retail gasoline prices have risen by more than 30 percent, and in those cases, gasoline demand has dropped by more than 2 percent only 12 times. It is worth mentioning that Wall Street's previous article mentioned that in terms of supply, Russian oil production has not dropped sharply due to European and American sanctions, and the United States and Canada are still actively increasing production.</p><p>At the same time, the demand of the crude oil market is suppressed by rising oil prices and pessimistic economic outlook expectations.<b>Under the combined action of many factors, the International Energy Agency believes that the global oil supply crisis has shown initial signs of easing.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Scared off by high gas prices? U.S. gasoline consumption sees 'off-season decline'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nScared off by high gas prices? U.S. gasoline consumption sees 'off-season decline'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 18:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline is slowing as oil prices remain high and market expectations for a U.S. recession move higher.</p><p>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline has been trending downward for 3 of the last 4 weeks. The four-week rolling average of U.S. gasoline demand fell 2.9% to 8.73 million barrels per day as of July 8.</p><p>This has raised concerns among some crude oil producers about gasoline demand. Some media said,<b>It is now the traditional road trip season that breaks out every summer, but gasoline consumption in the United States has experienced an unexpected \"off-season decline\".</b></p><p>As the chart below shows, the demand for U.S. gasoline plummeted except during the COVID lockdown in 2020, which is now the lowest seasonal demand in recent years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fe4c21175e461802dbcc7e77f2e5c8\" tg-width=\"671\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to some analysts, the gasoline consumed by Americans usually accounts for most of the market demand. At present, there is no sign that the demand of commuters will decrease. However, Linda Giesecke, an analyst at ESAI Energy LLC, said:<b>\"Seasonal growth is being cut\".</b></p><p>As oil prices remain high for a long time, consumer demand is actually falling correspondingly. John Kilduff, founding partner of energy hedge fund Again Capita, said:</p><p>California drivers seem to have reached the limit (of their patience with high gas prices), and if gas prices come down sharply one day, then there's a chance we could see demand pick up again. but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Demand growth for U.S. gasoline consumption was expected to slow, rather than fall directly, earlier this month.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Capital Markets also has a similar analysis in the latest report:</p><p>In 39 separate months over the past 30 years, retail gasoline prices have risen by more than 30 percent, and in those cases, gasoline demand has dropped by more than 2 percent only 12 times. It is worth mentioning that Wall Street's previous article mentioned that in terms of supply, Russian oil production has not dropped sharply due to European and American sanctions, and the United States and Canada are still actively increasing production.</p><p>At the same time, the demand of the crude oil market is suppressed by rising oil prices and pessimistic economic outlook expectations.<b>Under the combined action of many factors, the International Energy Agency believes that the global oil supply crisis has shown initial signs of easing.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665061\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665061","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2252346287","content_text":"由于油价居高不下，且市场对美国经济衰退的预期走高，美国消费者对汽油的需求正在放缓。美国消费者对汽油的需求在过去4周中有3周呈下降趋势。截至7月8日，美国汽油需求四周滚动均值下跌了2.9%至每天873万桶。这引发了一些原油生产商对汽油需求的担忧。有媒体称，如今正值每年夏天都会爆发的美国传统公路旅行季，但是美国汽油消费却出现令人意外的“反季节下降”。如下图所示，除了2020年新冠疫情封锁期间，美国汽油的需求量骤减，如今正是近年来最低的季节性需求。有分析称，通常美国人通勤所消耗的汽油占了大部分的市场需求，目前暂未有迹象表明通勤者的需求会减少，但是ESAI Energy LLC的分析师Linda Giesecke称：“季节性增长正在被削减”。随着油价长期维持高位，实际上，消费者需求正在相对应地下降。能源对冲基金Again Capita的创始合伙人John Kilduff表示：加州的司机似乎（对高油价的忍耐）已经达到了极限，如果油价有一天大幅回落，那么我们有可能会看到需求再次回升。但是摩根士丹利本月早些时候预计，美国汽油消费的需求增长将放缓，而不是直接下降。加拿大皇家银行资本市场也在最新的报告中有类似的分析：在过去30年中，有39个单独的月份，零售汽油价格上涨了30%以上，而在这其中，汽油需求仅有12次下降幅度超过2%。值得一提的是，华尔街见闻此前文章提及，在供应方面，俄罗斯石油产量并没有因为欧美制裁出现大幅下降，并且美国和加拿大还在积极增产。而与此同时，原油市场的需求同时被高涨的油价和悲观的经济前景预期所打压。在多方因素共同作用下，国际能源署认为，全球范围内的石油供应危机已经出现初步缓和的迹象。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331662,"gmtCreate":1658144270756,"gmtModify":1676536111847,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331662","repostId":"1152909637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072561079,"gmtCreate":1658065472191,"gmtModify":1676536100222,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072561079","repostId":"2251493617","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076562535,"gmtCreate":1657870691827,"gmtModify":1676536075558,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076562535","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174033197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, the US stock market staged another V-shaped reversal, from a deep fall to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up thrillingly, which may be related to a report by the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of a strong rate hike, the collective open low of the three major U.S. stock indexes once fell by more than 2%. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P finally closing down 0.3%, the Dow closing down 0.46% and the Nasdaq closing up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two hawkish senior officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, which eased the market's expectation of the 100 basis points rate hike in July and boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to some extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that what really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America and a former analyst of the New York Fed, which believed that the Federal Reserve would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research, and before joining BofA, he was an officer in the New York Fed's Markets Division, spent nearly 9 years in the open market trading division and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's prediction of monetary policy is very accurate. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also made him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on the Federal Reserve's policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract wide attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, the Cabana team released a report after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered the S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600,<b>A sharp downward revision of U.S. interest rate forecasts is expected to see the Fed not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the macro team of Bank of America lowered the U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. For the final Federal Funds rate, it was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and it was expected that the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points from September 23rd to June 24th next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team lowered its estimates for U.S. Treasury yields accordingly, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2022 to 2.75% from 3.50% and its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2023 to 2.50% from 3.25%, saying:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward interest rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet convey contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to tighten by shrinking its balance sheet while easing by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced it was halting its shrinking balance sheet. Of course it is also possible that the Fed will choose not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana thinks this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from the point of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest form of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the balance sheet reduction would have several effects on U.S. debt:</p><p>Less short-term US depreciation pressure due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, more coupon reductions likely due to lower financing needs, and less secondary market disruption due to the Federal Reserve restarting buying and reinvesting. Each will tend to bias UST-SOFR spreads, which tend to be wider on the curve, towards U.S. bond yields and secured overnight funding rates. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed's halt to the shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast that it would end in late 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a reduction of $780 billion in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. debt demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, the US stock market staged another V-shaped reversal, from a deep fall to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up thrillingly, which may be related to a report by the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of a strong rate hike, the collective open low of the three major U.S. stock indexes once fell by more than 2%. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P finally closing down 0.3%, the Dow closing down 0.46% and the Nasdaq closing up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two hawkish senior officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, which eased the market's expectation of the 100 basis points rate hike in July and boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to some extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that what really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America and a former analyst of the New York Fed, which believed that the Federal Reserve would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research, and before joining BofA, he was an officer in the New York Fed's Markets Division, spent nearly 9 years in the open market trading division and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's prediction of monetary policy is very accurate. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also made him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on the Federal Reserve's policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract wide attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, the Cabana team released a report after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered the S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600,<b>A sharp downward revision of U.S. interest rate forecasts is expected to see the Fed not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the macro team of Bank of America lowered the U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. For the final Federal Funds rate, it was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and it was expected that the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points from September 23rd to June 24th next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team lowered its estimates for U.S. Treasury yields accordingly, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2022 to 2.75% from 3.50% and its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2023 to 2.50% from 3.25%, saying:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward interest rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet convey contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to tighten by shrinking its balance sheet while easing by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced it was halting its shrinking balance sheet. Of course it is also possible that the Fed will choose not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana thinks this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from the point of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest form of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the balance sheet reduction would have several effects on U.S. debt:</p><p>Less short-term US depreciation pressure due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, more coupon reductions likely due to lower financing needs, and less secondary market disruption due to the Federal Reserve restarting buying and reinvesting. Each will tend to bias UST-SOFR spreads, which tend to be wider on the curve, towards U.S. bond yields and secured overnight funding rates. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed's halt to the shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast that it would end in late 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a reduction of $780 billion in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. debt demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058095535,"gmtCreate":1654749148027,"gmtModify":1676535504482,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"F","listText":"F","text":"F","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058095535","repostId":"1137515089","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023147544,"gmtCreate":1652886339388,"gmtModify":1676535181648,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023147544","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029639276,"gmtCreate":1652764121495,"gmtModify":1676535157604,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029639276","repostId":"2236279293","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2236279293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652762148,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236279293?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 12:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"BofA Securities: Nio-SW (9866.HK) Valuation Attracts Target Price Raised to HK$202","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236279293","media":"金融界网站","summary":"美银证券发表报告指，蔚来-SW(9866.HK)的销售改善，预期今年下半年会有更佳的毛利率，且其估值吸引，因此将集团股份评级由“中性”升至“买入”，目标价上调至202港元。　　该行表示，集团有强劲的型号周期及订单积压，其中“ET7”车款已于3月开始付运，“ES7”亦预期将于6月推出，及8月开始交货。　　美银又认为，蔚来的估值吸引，现价相当于一年预测企业价值/销售比率1.7倍，较历史平均低一个标准差。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Bank of America Securities issued a report saying,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>(9866.HK) sales improved, and it is expected that there will be a better gross profit margin in the second half of this year, and its valuation is attractive. Therefore, the rating of the group's shares was raised from \"neutral\" to \"buy\", and the target price was raised to HK$202.</p><p>The bank said that the group has a strong model cycle and order backlog, with the \"ET7\" model shipped in March, and the \"ES7\" is also expected to be launched in June and deliveries will begin in August.</p><p>Bank of America also believes that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The current price is equivalent to 1.7 times the one-year forecast enterprise value/sales ratio, which is one standard deviation lower than the historical average.</p><p><div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BofA Securities: Nio-SW (9866.HK) Valuation Attracts Target Price Raised to HK$202</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBofA Securities: Nio-SW (9866.HK) Valuation Attracts Target Price Raised to HK$202\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界网站</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-17 12:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Bank of America Securities issued a report saying,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>(9866.HK) sales improved, and it is expected that there will be a better gross profit margin in the second half of this year, and its valuation is attractive. Therefore, the rating of the group's shares was raised from \"neutral\" to \"buy\", and the target price was raised to HK$202.</p><p>The bank said that the group has a strong model cycle and order backlog, with the \"ET7\" model shipped in March, and the \"ES7\" is also expected to be launched in June and deliveries will begin in August.</p><p>Bank of America also believes that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The current price is equivalent to 1.7 times the one-year forecast enterprise value/sales ratio, which is one standard deviation lower than the historical average.</p><p><div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2022/05/17123536654595.shtml\">金融界网站</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2022/05/17123536654595.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236279293","content_text":"美银证券发表报告指，蔚来-SW(9866.HK)的销售改善，预期今年下半年会有更佳的毛利率，且其估值吸引，因此将集团股份评级由“中性”升至“买入”，目标价上调至202港元。　　该行表示，集团有强劲的型号周期及订单积压，其中“ET7”车款已于3月开始付运，“ES7”亦预期将于6月推出，及8月开始交货。　　美银又认为，蔚来的估值吸引，现价相当于一年预测企业价值/销售比率1.7倍，较历史平均低一个标准差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":1,"09866":1,"NIO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9982019949,"gmtCreate":1667041042282,"gmtModify":1676537853341,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go","text":"$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50313c43919ff6a8f7047e3ce40fcf0d","width":"1125","height":"2244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982019949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023147544,"gmtCreate":1652886339388,"gmtModify":1676535181648,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023147544","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are 5 stages of bear market. Have US stocks reached that stage now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the bear market in U.S. stocks over? From some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has made investors focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep market decline.</p><p>Mark Hulbert, an analyst and financial columnist, believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum reminds people more of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rally than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider this possibility when a bear market does bottom out, a bear bottom that comes at a time when investors won't even pay attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel or see any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not fit the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, scaling back living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they fared in the stock market:</p><p>Denial Phase: During this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of feeling angry, investors remained fairly optimistic as the market's pullback provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>The anger phase: As the market pullback becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain. Investor sentiment eventually morphed into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. One characteristic of this phase is that investors take divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>The cost-of-living phase: Investors redirect their efforts to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle despite a portfolio shock. Retirees rework their financial plans and forgo some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Even though these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those nearing retirement work longer than originally planned, and even retirees return to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they give in to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, tempting the gullible to lose more money in the next decline.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not passed the second stage now. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, overall, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and confusing. There are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really concede, no one will cry about it, but instead be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all corrections will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are also not to say that the market is bound to fall more. But if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951826504,"gmtCreate":1673451869709,"gmtModify":1676538839366,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ will see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951826504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007594383,"gmtCreate":1642933401247,"gmtModify":1676533758458,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007594383","repostId":"1181967997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964077408,"gmtCreate":1670042610604,"gmtModify":1676538294664,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell then","listText":"Sell then","text":"Sell then","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964077408","repostId":"2288043967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2288043967","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669996089,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288043967?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 23:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288043967","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","content":"<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised to $410 from $380.</body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">媒体滚动</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 23:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised to $410 from $380.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPGI":"标普全球"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288043967","content_text":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPGI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914672471,"gmtCreate":1665280962993,"gmtModify":1676537581163,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$2600？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914672471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331733,"gmtCreate":1658144319222,"gmtModify":1676536111831,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331733","repostId":"2252828739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252828739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658136215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252828739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: Even if the U.S. escapes the recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252828739","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Even if the U.S. economy escapes a recession, U.S. stocks are likely to continue falling, according to a big bear on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The contrarian rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escaped a recession whose likelihood is rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid fears that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will send the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Its models show the likelihood of a recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising jobless claims and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed is expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already pulled back from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are today the two main risk factors for equity returns, the strategist wrote in a July 15 report. Equity returns have remained good over the past year despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson is one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the market's recent decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Ongoing labor, raw material, inventory, and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose a risk to margins that is not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. Even if revenue growth estimates remain inevitable, a return to pre-pandemic net margin levels means a 10% hit to forward earnings per share, he said.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak before or before an earnings trough, and the market may be approaching a point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Even if the U.S. escapes the recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Even if the U.S. escapes the recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Even if the U.S. economy escapes a recession, U.S. stocks are likely to continue falling, according to a big bear on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The contrarian rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escaped a recession whose likelihood is rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have plummeted this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid fears that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will send the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Its models show the likelihood of a recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising jobless claims and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed is expected to rate hike another 75 basis points next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability, which has already pulled back from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are today the two main risk factors for equity returns, the strategist wrote in a July 15 report. Equity returns have remained good over the past year despite rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson is one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the market's recent decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures would ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Ongoing labor, raw material, inventory, and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose a risk to margins that is not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. Even if revenue growth estimates remain inevitable, a return to pre-pandemic net margin levels means a 10% hit to forward earnings per share, he said.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak before or before an earnings trough, and the market may be approaching a point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252828739","content_text":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生衰退的概率为36%，而其他警告信号包括申领失业救济的人数上升以及职位空缺减少。鉴于美联储预计下周将再加息75个基点，投资者现在转向了企业财报季，看看在价格飙升和悲观情绪下，利润率是否具有韧性。高盛集团策略师David J． Kostin表示，他预计疲弱的宏观经济前景将威胁已经从纪录高位回落的企业盈利能力。这位策略师在7月 15日的报告中写道，利润率和借贷成本如今是股票回报率面临的两个主要风险因素。尽管面对投入成本上升、omicron疫情和供应链中断等问题，但股票回报率在过去一年中一直保持良好。摩根士丹利的Wilson是今年最坚定的股市空头之一，并准确预测到最近市场的下跌。他还表示，他对利润率压力将在第二季度之后有所缓解的预期持“怀疑态度”。“持续的劳动力、原材料、库存和运输成本压力再加上需求减速，这些因素对利润率构成的风险并未反映在市场普遍预期中，”Wilson说。他表示，即使收入增速预估保持必变，但净利润率水平回到疫情前的水平意味着远期每股收益将受到10%的冲击。另一方面，摩根大通的策略师们表示，投资者可以对夏季期间更具挑战性的盈利相关新闻视而不见。Mislav Matejka等策略师在报告中表示，股市通常会在盈利低谷到来或之前见顶，市场可能正在接近坏数据开始被视为好消息的时点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331662,"gmtCreate":1658144270756,"gmtModify":1676536111847,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331662","repostId":"1152909637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076562535,"gmtCreate":1657870691827,"gmtModify":1676536075558,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076562535","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174033197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, the US stock market staged another V-shaped reversal, from a deep fall to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up thrillingly, which may be related to a report by the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of a strong rate hike, the collective open low of the three major U.S. stock indexes once fell by more than 2%. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P finally closing down 0.3%, the Dow closing down 0.46% and the Nasdaq closing up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two hawkish senior officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, which eased the market's expectation of the 100 basis points rate hike in July and boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to some extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that what really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America and a former analyst of the New York Fed, which believed that the Federal Reserve would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research, and before joining BofA, he was an officer in the New York Fed's Markets Division, spent nearly 9 years in the open market trading division and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's prediction of monetary policy is very accurate. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also made him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on the Federal Reserve's policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract wide attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, the Cabana team released a report after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered the S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600,<b>A sharp downward revision of U.S. interest rate forecasts is expected to see the Fed not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the macro team of Bank of America lowered the U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. For the final Federal Funds rate, it was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and it was expected that the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points from September 23rd to June 24th next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team lowered its estimates for U.S. Treasury yields accordingly, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2022 to 2.75% from 3.50% and its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2023 to 2.50% from 3.25%, saying:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward interest rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet convey contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to tighten by shrinking its balance sheet while easing by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced it was halting its shrinking balance sheet. Of course it is also possible that the Fed will choose not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana thinks this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from the point of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest form of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the balance sheet reduction would have several effects on U.S. debt:</p><p>Less short-term US depreciation pressure due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, more coupon reductions likely due to lower financing needs, and less secondary market disruption due to the Federal Reserve restarting buying and reinvesting. Each will tend to bias UST-SOFR spreads, which tend to be wider on the curve, towards U.S. bond yields and secured overnight funding rates. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed's halt to the shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast that it would end in late 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a reduction of $780 billion in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. debt demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>Overnight, the US stock market staged another V-shaped reversal, from a deep fall to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up thrillingly, which may be related to a report by the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of a strong rate hike, the collective open low of the three major U.S. stock indexes once fell by more than 2%. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon, with the S&P finally closing down 0.3%, the Dow closing down 0.46% and the Nasdaq closing up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two hawkish senior officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, which eased the market's expectation of the 100 basis points rate hike in July and boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to some extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that what really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks was a report by Marc Cabana, the top interest rate strategist of Bank of America and a former analyst of the New York Fed, which believed that the Federal Reserve would be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research, and before joining BofA, he was an officer in the New York Fed's Markets Division, spent nearly 9 years in the open market trading division and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a series of asset purchase/quantitative easing programs during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's prediction of monetary policy is very accurate. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also made him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on the Federal Reserve's policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract wide attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, the Cabana team released a report after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered the S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600,<b>A sharp downward revision of U.S. interest rate forecasts is expected to see the Fed not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the macro team of Bank of America lowered the U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. For the final Federal Funds rate, it was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and it was expected that the Fed would cut interest rates by 100 basis points from September 23rd to June 24th next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team lowered its estimates for U.S. Treasury yields accordingly, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2022 to 2.75% from 3.50% and its 10-year US Treasury yields estimate due 2023 to 2.50% from 3.25%, saying:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward interest rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet convey contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to tighten by shrinking its balance sheet while easing by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced it was halting its shrinking balance sheet. Of course it is also possible that the Fed will choose not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana thinks this is unlikely, adding some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from the point of a reserve shortage. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest form of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts interest rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the balance sheet reduction would have several effects on U.S. debt:</p><p>Less short-term US depreciation pressure due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, more coupon reductions likely due to lower financing needs, and less secondary market disruption due to the Federal Reserve restarting buying and reinvesting. Each will tend to bias UST-SOFR spreads, which tend to be wider on the curve, towards U.S. bond yields and secured overnight funding rates. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed's halt to the shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast that it would end in late 2024. An earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would result in a reduction of $780 billion in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in U.S. debt demand from the Federal Reserve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016486715,"gmtCreate":1649219337928,"gmtModify":1676534472864,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"en","listText":"en","text":"en","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016486715","repostId":"2225536464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225536464","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649205086,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225536464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 08:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: Who's selling? Looking at the Recent Fluctuation of Hong Kong Stocks from the Funding Side","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225536464","media":"中金点睛","summary":"来源：中金点睛3月中旬港股和中概股市场一度出现明显波动，其剧烈程度表明一定程度上可能存在流动性的冲击。不过，依然值得探究问题是，谁在卖出？3月中上旬港股动荡期间，南下资金依然流入，甚至逆势加速。具体而言，俄乌局势持续紧张引发的连带制裁以及投资适当性担忧，可能使得部分海外投资者减持。另一方面，因俄罗斯持仓冻结而需要被迫减持中国资产也不排除解释一部分。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In mid-March, there were obvious fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market and the China concept stock market, and its intensity indicated that there may be liquidity shock to a certain extent. Fortunately, in mid-March, the stability maintenance signal of the Financial Committee stabilized the market sentiment in time, avoided the further amplification of panic selling caused by liquidity shock, and the market also rebounded. However, it is still worth exploring. The question is, who's selling? What is the reason? Is there any pressure in the follow-up? Discussing these problems is also of reference significance for judging the follow-up market trend.</p><p>Who's selling? The overall inflow of southbound funds may be the main reason for overseas funds, especially active funds</p><p>The existing data caliber is incomplete (for example, the capital flow of EPFR only covers investors such as \"funds\") and the objective reality that the shareholding of HKEx is not penetrating, which makes it extremely difficult to try to grasp the overall investor structure of Hong Kong stocks and the changes of high-frequency capital flow. To solve this problem, we try to combine the \"puzzle\" of macro (Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, Hong Kong M3, BOP portfolio investment), capital flow (interconnection southbound funds, EPFR capital flow), CCASS shareholding of HKEx (intermediary shareholding), fund position and company shareholder information (such as SEC 13F, company shareholders, fund announcement) into a relatively comprehensive information. Combining the latest changes, we found that:</p><p>Southbound funds: inflows against the trend in turmoil, until it weakened in the near future. During the turmoil of Hong Kong stocks in mid-to-early March, funds going south still flowed in, and even accelerated against the trend. Except for the slight outflow on March 17th, from February 23rd, when the market fluctuated, to March 23rd, when the market stabilized and rebounded, southbound funds maintained the inflow almost every day and continued to accelerate, with an overall inflow of HK$63.4 billion, accounting for two-thirds of the overall inflow of HK$97.3 billion since the beginning of the year. The specific flow direction also shows the characteristics of adding positions against the trend, such as new economic leaders with large declines, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Wait is flowing into the main force, while Sunny Optical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601939\">China Construction Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>More outflow. Therefore, it can be seen that the funds going south are not dominant in this round of fluctuations.</p><p>Overseas funds: passive capital inflow and active capital outflow. Obviously, overseas capital outflow is the main reason, among which active capital outflow is the dominant reason, which is reflected in: 1) Under the EPFR caliber, active funds flowed out of A shares, Hong Kong stocks and China from the end of February to mid-March, with a total scale of 4.57 billion USD; However, passive funds still inflowed $9.05 billion in the same period; 2) A large outflow of northbound funds (~68 billion RMB during the most volatile period in the first two weeks, second only to 87 billion RMB during the epidemic turmoil in March 2020); 3) IIF's estimated outflow of China's stock portfolio under the BOP caliber in the first half of March was USD 10.5 billion, a new high since the data was available in 2005; 4) The weakening of Hong Kong dollar and RMB under the background of no sharp appreciation of the US dollar also illustrates the pressure of some capital outflows. In addition, from the shareholding structure: 1) In early March, among the CCASS shares of HKEx, the shares of foreign intermediaries decreased the most (1.07ppt), Chinese intermediaries rose slightly (0.10ppt), and local intermediaries in Hong Kong rose the most (0.97ppt); 2) Based on the summary of quarterly information of the top 100 overseas Chinese stocks by market capitalization by nearly 6,000 foreign institutional investors, we found that the shareholding of foreign institutions has decreased from approximately 21.2% at the end of 2021 to 19.8% at present; 3) Some overseas institutions prompt possible changes in positions through reports and announcements.</p><p>Why does it flow out? Collateral risks and investment appropriateness concerns under geopolitical risks, internal and external regulatory uncertainties</p><p>We believe that the reason for the large and concentrated external capital outflow may be related to factors such as associated risks and investment appropriateness concerns under the continuous geopolitical tension, as well as internal and external regulatory uncertainties. In particular,</p><p>The joint sanctions caused by the continuous tension between Russia and Ukraine and concerns about investment appropriateness may cause some overseas investors to reduce their holdings. In mid-March, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced that it had removed a Chinese stock in Hong Kong from its portfolio [1], coinciding with the tension between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns that more similar measures could follow. As the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, concerns that China or some Chinese enterprises may be subject to joint and several sanctions, or fears that they are not in line with investment philosophy may prompt some investment institutions, especially long-term and large investment institutions, to evaluate the exposure of Chinese assets.</p><p>The regulation of Chinese stocks and the variables of Sino-US relations have also caused some investors to worry. For example, some overseas pension and large investment institutions have repeatedly mentioned their concerns about Sino-US trade friction and other factors in their reports. In early March, according to the detailed rules of the Foreign Company Accountability Law, the SEC put the first batch of five Chinese stock companies on the preliminary list that did not meet the current requirements, which increased investors' worries and panic about the subsequent delisting risks.</p><p>In addition, the local global dollar liquidity shock and the need to reduce holdings caused by the freezing of Russian positions may also have an impact, but it is estimated that they are not the most dominant factors. On the one hand, the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine led to global asset fluctuations, which once made the market worry that it might trigger global liquidity tensions, which in turn caused emerging markets to suffer indiscriminate redemptions (similar to the epidemic in March 2020). However, the major US dollar liquidity indicators we monitored were not unusually tight. On the other hand, the need to be forced to reduce Chinese assets due to the freezing of Russian positions does not rule out part of the explanation. Tracking the overall MSCI Emerging Index of $1.8 trillion AUM (as of mid-2021) corresponds to Russia's 1.5% weighting, with a scale of about $27 billion, but may not be the most dominant factor, the evidence is that passive funds continue to flow in under the EPFR caliber.</p><p>Shareholding structure of Hong Kong stocks? Foreign capital is still dominant, and the southward direction is constantly improving</p><p>Overseas investors remain the main force in the Hong Kong market. From all kinds of clues, we can see that overseas investors are still the most important participants in the Hong Kong stock market. First of all, it can be seen from the Spot Market Trading Research Survey 2019 released by Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020 that overseas investors still dominate the Hong Kong market, accounting for ~43% of transactions. At the same time, through the intermediary shareholding data provided by CCASS of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it can be seen that 11.6% of the market value of all underlying intermediaries in Hong Kong Stock Connect comes from Chinese intermediaries, and international intermediaries and local intermediaries in Hong Kong account for 43.7% and 44.7% respectively (including the shares held by depositary banks of secondary listed companies, which are not necessarily circulated in the Hong Kong stock market). Assuming that under normal circumstances, foreign-funded institutions prefer to choose international investment banks as intermediaries, it can be seen that overseas funds are still the main force in the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>But the capital of going south keeps rising. Since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect in November, 2014, the proportion of southbound funds' shareholding and transactions has been growing. At present, the southbound funds have flowed into HK$ 2.28 trillion, and the stock market value accounts for 12.2% of the investable scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect. However, because southbound capital transactions are more active, the transaction proportion is as high as about 20%. Further inside the southbound funds, the shareholding proportion of Public Offering of Fund has also increased year by year, from 6.9% in 2018 to 21.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 (\"Public Offering of 4Q21 Hong Kong Stock Positions: Positions Continue to Fall but Turning Back\"). In terms of shareholding preference, southbound funds prefer the new economy compared with overseas funds.</p><p>Follow-up outlook: The panic selling of liquidity shock has basically ended, and the valuation repair has gradually entered; Subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, regulatory trends and the situation between Russia and Ukraine are key</p><p>Going forward, we expect the market to be repaired in three steps. The first is the repair of liquidity shocks. Thanks to the stability signal of the Financial Commission's policy in mid-March and the recent positive progress of Sino-US regulatory cooperation, the market rebounded from the bottom and gradually stabilized, and the panic selling under the impact of liquidity basically ended. However, the subsequent situation between Russia and Ukraine is still worthy of attention. The second step is to return to the valuation repair logic at the beginning of the year. This situation is similar to that in early 2016 and early 2019, that is, the profit expectation and growth have not yet picked up, but the southbound capital inflow under the steady growth expectation and loose liquidity environment promotes the valuation repair. The third step is to see whether the fundamentals can stabilize to provide further support, and pay attention to the progress of subsequent policies for stable growth and related regulatory measures.</p><p>In the short term, we prefer the market to maintain range shocks, mainly considering that: 1) the regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical situation are still ongoing, which may make it difficult for some overseas funds to re-inflow soon; 2) The domestic epidemic spread is still on the rise; 3) The strength and timing of the policy of steady growth remain to be verified; 4) The proportion of short selling is still high. However, there are no shortage of positive factors in the market, such as the valuation level is already quite attractive; More enterprises are planning to expand share repurchases or issue high Dividend; The high point of the local epidemic in Hong Kong is gradually easing in the past. Overall, we believe that the medium-term opportunities of the Hong Kong stock market still outweigh the risks, and domestic policies play a key role in enhancing investors' risk appetite. In terms of allocation, we believe that low valuation and high Dividend targets and high-quality growth stocks with large early adjustment will provide better allocation value, the so-called \"dumbbell\" strategy; At the same time, local consumer and financial stocks in Hong Kong also deserve attention under the background of improving epidemic situation in Hong Kong.</p><p>Chart 1: Although the market correction is obvious, southbound funds have flowed against the trend since entering 2022, while northbound funds have flowed out in large numbers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8189c8b3c7d8e295f48176b42a9a24f9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 2: Southbound funds' preference for the new economy is increasingly pronounced</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196047788471f18a0d70b019fc7c9c17\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 3: Under the EPFR caliber, overseas active funds are under great outflow pressure recently, while passive funds still accelerate their inflow</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/449b3df44551bd1f771513af9a2626a3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 4: Since March, overseas active funds have continuously flowed out of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stock markets, while southbound funds have still climbed against the trend</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988e4bea40d30df4d6bff1634043f62f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 5: Under the BoP caliber, the daily outflow of equity assets in China reached a new high since 2005</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fac87d5ee1dbb5893c31bcac1b719d8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: IIF, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 6: From the data of foreign-funded institutions' holdings of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in the total market value, it has also declined recently</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ec97713338e1eef930ac693320fc34\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 7: Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund's Chinese equity holdings and overall market capitalization both declined in 2021</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68c51dcd25e19460ea90ca7ef88d124\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Norges Bank Annual Report, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 8: Overseas active funds investing in emerging markets (EPFR caliber) are currently underweighted in overseas Chinese stocks</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3271f4e2b821f7fe5c7cca85e7917e69\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 9: Chinese stocks account for about 27% of the current MSCI Emerging Markets Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82af86acaf88f84f8b07badb1d47798\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 10: From the perspective of intermediary shareholding of Hong Kong Stock Connect, international intermediary shareholding can currently account for 43.7% of the overall market value</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5741358b8743c6f21a9b45070868ccf0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 11: The gap between overseas and local transactions in Hong Kong stock market is gradually widening</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d119606b52bc2ab28ef031e36a6b8afc\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 12: The proportion of Chinese funds in overseas transactions is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8716c80fec883f57da683517474970\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 13: Recent pressure of Hong Kong dollar depreciation against US dollar is obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29dc0f843043477aa704d84c972251b0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 14: A/H premium has returned to a high level after a slight decline at the beginning of the year, and is basically more than one time the standard deviation of the long-term historical average</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06ed1e7357ba263e08d9b3b7ae9f8a1\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 15: Accelerating share buybacks tend to signal a likely stabilizing market rally in the medium term</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4fc4083f604a540a59bea91b3c54ac9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 16: The proportion of short selling in Hong Kong stock market is still at a high level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6785e9bcd007e4c2f28150bd8b20822e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 17: The percentage of Hong Kong Stock Connect turnover to Hong Kong stock turnover is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27075e294276edd4f3724d715aac7009\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 18: The market value of mainland public offering of funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect accounts for about 21.3%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9443883a6080e50b7cc796e505f92a3e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sources: Bloomberg Information, FactSet, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 19: The market behaves after a sharp drop</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f1ada916911be4ac30254f4d8bb561\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: Who's selling? Looking at the Recent Fluctuation of Hong Kong Stocks from the Funding Side</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: Who's selling? Looking at the Recent Fluctuation of Hong Kong Stocks from the Funding Side\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In mid-March, there were obvious fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market and the China concept stock market, and its intensity indicated that there may be liquidity shock to a certain extent. Fortunately, in mid-March, the stability maintenance signal of the Financial Committee stabilized the market sentiment in time, avoided the further amplification of panic selling caused by liquidity shock, and the market also rebounded. However, it is still worth exploring. The question is, who's selling? What is the reason? Is there any pressure in the follow-up? Discussing these problems is also of reference significance for judging the follow-up market trend.</p><p>Who's selling? The overall inflow of southbound funds may be the main reason for overseas funds, especially active funds</p><p>The existing data caliber is incomplete (for example, the capital flow of EPFR only covers investors such as \"funds\") and the objective reality that the shareholding of HKEx is not penetrating, which makes it extremely difficult to try to grasp the overall investor structure of Hong Kong stocks and the changes of high-frequency capital flow. To solve this problem, we try to combine the \"puzzle\" of macro (Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, Hong Kong M3, BOP portfolio investment), capital flow (interconnection southbound funds, EPFR capital flow), CCASS shareholding of HKEx (intermediary shareholding), fund position and company shareholder information (such as SEC 13F, company shareholders, fund announcement) into a relatively comprehensive information. Combining the latest changes, we found that:</p><p>Southbound funds: inflows against the trend in turmoil, until it weakened in the near future. During the turmoil of Hong Kong stocks in mid-to-early March, funds going south still flowed in, and even accelerated against the trend. Except for the slight outflow on March 17th, from February 23rd, when the market fluctuated, to March 23rd, when the market stabilized and rebounded, southbound funds maintained the inflow almost every day and continued to accelerate, with an overall inflow of HK$63.4 billion, accounting for two-thirds of the overall inflow of HK$97.3 billion since the beginning of the year. The specific flow direction also shows the characteristics of adding positions against the trend, such as new economic leaders with large declines, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Wait is flowing into the main force, while Sunny Optical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601939\">China Construction Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>More outflow. Therefore, it can be seen that the funds going south are not dominant in this round of fluctuations.</p><p>Overseas funds: passive capital inflow and active capital outflow. Obviously, overseas capital outflow is the main reason, among which active capital outflow is the dominant reason, which is reflected in: 1) Under the EPFR caliber, active funds flowed out of A shares, Hong Kong stocks and China from the end of February to mid-March, with a total scale of 4.57 billion USD; However, passive funds still inflowed $9.05 billion in the same period; 2) A large outflow of northbound funds (~68 billion RMB during the most volatile period in the first two weeks, second only to 87 billion RMB during the epidemic turmoil in March 2020); 3) IIF's estimated outflow of China's stock portfolio under the BOP caliber in the first half of March was USD 10.5 billion, a new high since the data was available in 2005; 4) The weakening of Hong Kong dollar and RMB under the background of no sharp appreciation of the US dollar also illustrates the pressure of some capital outflows. In addition, from the shareholding structure: 1) In early March, among the CCASS shares of HKEx, the shares of foreign intermediaries decreased the most (1.07ppt), Chinese intermediaries rose slightly (0.10ppt), and local intermediaries in Hong Kong rose the most (0.97ppt); 2) Based on the summary of quarterly information of the top 100 overseas Chinese stocks by market capitalization by nearly 6,000 foreign institutional investors, we found that the shareholding of foreign institutions has decreased from approximately 21.2% at the end of 2021 to 19.8% at present; 3) Some overseas institutions prompt possible changes in positions through reports and announcements.</p><p>Why does it flow out? Collateral risks and investment appropriateness concerns under geopolitical risks, internal and external regulatory uncertainties</p><p>We believe that the reason for the large and concentrated external capital outflow may be related to factors such as associated risks and investment appropriateness concerns under the continuous geopolitical tension, as well as internal and external regulatory uncertainties. In particular,</p><p>The joint sanctions caused by the continuous tension between Russia and Ukraine and concerns about investment appropriateness may cause some overseas investors to reduce their holdings. In mid-March, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced that it had removed a Chinese stock in Hong Kong from its portfolio [1], coinciding with the tension between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns that more similar measures could follow. As the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, concerns that China or some Chinese enterprises may be subject to joint and several sanctions, or fears that they are not in line with investment philosophy may prompt some investment institutions, especially long-term and large investment institutions, to evaluate the exposure of Chinese assets.</p><p>The regulation of Chinese stocks and the variables of Sino-US relations have also caused some investors to worry. For example, some overseas pension and large investment institutions have repeatedly mentioned their concerns about Sino-US trade friction and other factors in their reports. In early March, according to the detailed rules of the Foreign Company Accountability Law, the SEC put the first batch of five Chinese stock companies on the preliminary list that did not meet the current requirements, which increased investors' worries and panic about the subsequent delisting risks.</p><p>In addition, the local global dollar liquidity shock and the need to reduce holdings caused by the freezing of Russian positions may also have an impact, but it is estimated that they are not the most dominant factors. On the one hand, the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine led to global asset fluctuations, which once made the market worry that it might trigger global liquidity tensions, which in turn caused emerging markets to suffer indiscriminate redemptions (similar to the epidemic in March 2020). However, the major US dollar liquidity indicators we monitored were not unusually tight. On the other hand, the need to be forced to reduce Chinese assets due to the freezing of Russian positions does not rule out part of the explanation. Tracking the overall MSCI Emerging Index of $1.8 trillion AUM (as of mid-2021) corresponds to Russia's 1.5% weighting, with a scale of about $27 billion, but may not be the most dominant factor, the evidence is that passive funds continue to flow in under the EPFR caliber.</p><p>Shareholding structure of Hong Kong stocks? Foreign capital is still dominant, and the southward direction is constantly improving</p><p>Overseas investors remain the main force in the Hong Kong market. From all kinds of clues, we can see that overseas investors are still the most important participants in the Hong Kong stock market. First of all, it can be seen from the Spot Market Trading Research Survey 2019 released by Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020 that overseas investors still dominate the Hong Kong market, accounting for ~43% of transactions. At the same time, through the intermediary shareholding data provided by CCASS of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it can be seen that 11.6% of the market value of all underlying intermediaries in Hong Kong Stock Connect comes from Chinese intermediaries, and international intermediaries and local intermediaries in Hong Kong account for 43.7% and 44.7% respectively (including the shares held by depositary banks of secondary listed companies, which are not necessarily circulated in the Hong Kong stock market). Assuming that under normal circumstances, foreign-funded institutions prefer to choose international investment banks as intermediaries, it can be seen that overseas funds are still the main force in the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>But the capital of going south keeps rising. Since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect in November, 2014, the proportion of southbound funds' shareholding and transactions has been growing. At present, the southbound funds have flowed into HK$ 2.28 trillion, and the stock market value accounts for 12.2% of the investable scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect. However, because southbound capital transactions are more active, the transaction proportion is as high as about 20%. Further inside the southbound funds, the shareholding proportion of Public Offering of Fund has also increased year by year, from 6.9% in 2018 to 21.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 (\"Public Offering of 4Q21 Hong Kong Stock Positions: Positions Continue to Fall but Turning Back\"). In terms of shareholding preference, southbound funds prefer the new economy compared with overseas funds.</p><p>Follow-up outlook: The panic selling of liquidity shock has basically ended, and the valuation repair has gradually entered; Subsequent efforts to stabilize growth, regulatory trends and the situation between Russia and Ukraine are key</p><p>Going forward, we expect the market to be repaired in three steps. The first is the repair of liquidity shocks. Thanks to the stability signal of the Financial Commission's policy in mid-March and the recent positive progress of Sino-US regulatory cooperation, the market rebounded from the bottom and gradually stabilized, and the panic selling under the impact of liquidity basically ended. However, the subsequent situation between Russia and Ukraine is still worthy of attention. The second step is to return to the valuation repair logic at the beginning of the year. This situation is similar to that in early 2016 and early 2019, that is, the profit expectation and growth have not yet picked up, but the southbound capital inflow under the steady growth expectation and loose liquidity environment promotes the valuation repair. The third step is to see whether the fundamentals can stabilize to provide further support, and pay attention to the progress of subsequent policies for stable growth and related regulatory measures.</p><p>In the short term, we prefer the market to maintain range shocks, mainly considering that: 1) the regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical situation are still ongoing, which may make it difficult for some overseas funds to re-inflow soon; 2) The domestic epidemic spread is still on the rise; 3) The strength and timing of the policy of steady growth remain to be verified; 4) The proportion of short selling is still high. However, there are no shortage of positive factors in the market, such as the valuation level is already quite attractive; More enterprises are planning to expand share repurchases or issue high Dividend; The high point of the local epidemic in Hong Kong is gradually easing in the past. Overall, we believe that the medium-term opportunities of the Hong Kong stock market still outweigh the risks, and domestic policies play a key role in enhancing investors' risk appetite. In terms of allocation, we believe that low valuation and high Dividend targets and high-quality growth stocks with large early adjustment will provide better allocation value, the so-called \"dumbbell\" strategy; At the same time, local consumer and financial stocks in Hong Kong also deserve attention under the background of improving epidemic situation in Hong Kong.</p><p>Chart 1: Although the market correction is obvious, southbound funds have flowed against the trend since entering 2022, while northbound funds have flowed out in large numbers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8189c8b3c7d8e295f48176b42a9a24f9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 2: Southbound funds' preference for the new economy is increasingly pronounced</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196047788471f18a0d70b019fc7c9c17\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 3: Under the EPFR caliber, overseas active funds are under great outflow pressure recently, while passive funds still accelerate their inflow</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/449b3df44551bd1f771513af9a2626a3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 4: Since March, overseas active funds have continuously flowed out of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stock markets, while southbound funds have still climbed against the trend</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988e4bea40d30df4d6bff1634043f62f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, Wind Information, CICC Research Department; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 5: Under the BoP caliber, the daily outflow of equity assets in China reached a new high since 2005</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fac87d5ee1dbb5893c31bcac1b719d8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: IIF, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 6: From the data of foreign-funded institutions' holdings of overseas Chinese-funded stocks in the total market value, it has also declined recently</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ec97713338e1eef930ac693320fc34\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 7: Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund's Chinese equity holdings and overall market capitalization both declined in 2021</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68c51dcd25e19460ea90ca7ef88d124\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Norges Bank Annual Report, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 8: Overseas active funds investing in emerging markets (EPFR caliber) are currently underweighted in overseas Chinese stocks</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3271f4e2b821f7fe5c7cca85e7917e69\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: EPFR, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 9: Chinese stocks account for about 27% of the current MSCI Emerging Markets Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82af86acaf88f84f8b07badb1d47798\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 10: From the perspective of intermediary shareholding of Hong Kong Stock Connect, international intermediary shareholding can currently account for 43.7% of the overall market value</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5741358b8743c6f21a9b45070868ccf0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 11: The gap between overseas and local transactions in Hong Kong stock market is gradually widening</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d119606b52bc2ab28ef031e36a6b8afc\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 12: The proportion of Chinese funds in overseas transactions is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8716c80fec883f57da683517474970\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: HKEx, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 13: Recent pressure of Hong Kong dollar depreciation against US dollar is obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29dc0f843043477aa704d84c972251b0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 14: A/H premium has returned to a high level after a slight decline at the beginning of the year, and is basically more than one time the standard deviation of the long-term historical average</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06ed1e7357ba263e08d9b3b7ae9f8a1\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 15: Accelerating share buybacks tend to signal a likely stabilizing market rally in the medium term</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4fc4083f604a540a59bea91b3c54ac9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 16: The proportion of short selling in Hong Kong stock market is still at a high level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6785e9bcd007e4c2f28150bd8b20822e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 17: The percentage of Hong Kong Stock Connect turnover to Hong Kong stock turnover is increasing year by year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27075e294276edd4f3724d715aac7009\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg Information, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 18: The market value of mainland public offering of funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect accounts for about 21.3%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9443883a6080e50b7cc796e505f92a3e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sources: Bloomberg Information, FactSet, Wind Information, CICC Research; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p>Chart 19: The market behaves after a sharp drop</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f1ada916911be4ac30254f4d8bb561\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind Information, Research Department of CICC; Data as of April 1, 2022</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-04-06/doc-imcwiwst0119750.shtml\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","HSI":"恒生指数","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","HSCCI":"红筹指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-04-06/doc-imcwiwst0119750.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225536464","content_text":"3月中旬港股和中概股市场一度出现明显波动，其剧烈程度表明一定程度上可能存在流动性的冲击。庆幸的是，3月中旬金融委维稳信号及时稳住市场情绪，避免流动性冲击导致的恐慌抛售进一步放大，市场也应声反弹。不过，依然值得探究问题是，谁在卖出？原因何在？后续是否还有压力？探讨这些问题对于判断后续市场走向也有参考意义。谁在卖出？南向资金整体流入，海外资金特别是主动型资金可能是主因现有数据口径不全（如EPFR资金流向只涵盖“基金”这一类投资者）和港交所持股不穿透的客观现实，使得试图掌握港股全局投资者结构和高频资金流向变化变得异常困难。针对这一问题，我们尝试从宏观（港币汇率、香港M3、BOP口径组合投资）、资金流向（互联互通南向资金、EPFR资金流向）、港交所CCASS持股（中介机构持股）、基金持仓和公司股东信息（如SEC 13F、公司股东、基金公告）等各层次的“拼图”，组合成相对全面的信息。综合最新变化，我们发现：南向资金：动荡中逆势流入，直到近期有所转弱。3月中上旬港股动荡期间，南下资金依然流入，甚至逆势加速。除3月17日小幅流出外，自2月23日市场波动开始至3月23日市场企稳反弹的这一个月内，南向资金几乎每日维持流入且持续加速，整体流入规模634亿港元，占年初以来整体流入973亿港元的三分之二。具体流向也呈现出逆势加仓的特征，例如跌幅较大的新经济龙头，如腾讯、美团-W、李宁、药明生物和快手-W等是流入主力，而舜宇光学，建设银行、长城汽车和碧桂园服务流出较多。因此可以看出，本轮波动中南下资金并非主导。海外资金：被动资金流入、主动资金流出。显然，海外资金流出是主因，其中又以主动型资金流出主导，体现为：1）EPFR口径下主动资金2月底到3月中大幅流出A股、港股和中概，总规模45.7亿美元；但同期被动资金仍流入90.5亿美元；2）北向资金大举流出 （前两周最波动期间流出~680亿人民币，幅度仅次于2020年3月疫情动荡期间的870亿人民币）；3）IIF估算的3月上半月BOP口径下中国股票组合资金流出规模为105亿美元，创2005年有数据以来新高；4）港币和人民币在美元没有大幅升值的背景下走弱也侧面说明了部分资金流出的压力。此外，从持股结构上：1）3月上旬，港交所CCASS持股中，外资中介持股降幅最大（1.07ppt），中资中介小幅抬升（0.10ppt），香港本地中介抬升最大（0.97ppt）；2）基于近6，000家外资机构投资者对市值前100的海外中资股持股季度信息的汇总，我们发现外资机构的持股占比从2021年底的约21.2%已经下降至当前19.8%；3）部分海外机构通过报告和公告等形式提示可能的持仓变化。为何流出？地缘风险下的连带风险和投资适当性担忧、内外部监管不确定性之所以出现大幅且集中的外部资金流出，我们认为，可能与地缘局势持续紧张下的连带风险和投资适当性担忧、以及内外部监管不确定性等因素有关。具体而言，俄乌局势持续紧张引发的连带制裁以及投资适当性担忧，可能使得部分海外投资者减持。3月中挪威主权财富基金公告，将一家港股中资股从其投资组合中剔除[1]，恰逢俄乌局势紧张，引发了市场担忧更多类似举措可能接踵而至。随着俄乌局势持续紧张，对中国或中国部分企业可能遭受连带制裁、或者担心不符合投资理念的担忧都可能促使一些投资机构、特别是偏长期和大型的投资机构评估中国资产的敞口。中概股监管和中美关系变数也引发了一部分投资者的担忧，例如一些海外养老和大型投资机构报告中多次提及对于中美贸易摩擦等因素的关注。3月上旬SEC依据外国公司问责法细则将首批5家中概股公司放入到不符合当前要求的初步名单上，加大了投资者对于后续退市风险的担忧和恐慌情绪。除此之外，局部的全球美元流动性冲击和因俄罗斯持仓被冻结引发的减持需要也可能有影响，但估计不是最主导因素。一方面，俄乌局势升级导致全球资产波动使得市场一度担心可能引发全球范围的流动性紧张，进而使得新兴市场遭受无差别赎回（类似于2020年3月疫情期间），但我们监测到的主要美元流动性指标都没有到异常紧张的程度。另一方面，因俄罗斯持仓冻结而需要被迫减持中国资产也不排除解释一部分。追踪MSCI新兴指数整体1.8万亿美元AUM（截至2021年中）对应俄罗斯1.5%的权重，规模约为270亿美元，但可能不是最主要因素，证据是EPFR口径下被动资金继续流入。港股持股结构？外资仍是主导，南向不断提升海外投资者依然是香港市场的主力。从各种蛛丝马迹中我们可以看出目前海外投资者仍然是港股市场的最重要参与者。首先，港交所2020年发布的《现货市场交易研究调查2019》中可以看出，海外投资者在香港市场依然占据主导，成交占比~43%。与此同时，通过港交所CCASS提供的中介持股数据，可以看到港股通全部标的中介持股市值中，11.6%来自中资中介，国际中介以及香港本地中介分别占到43.7%与44.7%（包含二次上市公司存托行持有股份，不一定于港股市场流通）。假设一般情况下外资机构更多偏向选择国际投行作为中介的话，可以看出海外资金仍是港股市场主力。但南下资金不断抬升。2014年11月港股通开通以来，南下资金持股与成交占比都不断壮大，目前南下资金已累计流入2.28万亿港币，持股市值占到港股通可投资范围的12.2%。不过由于南向资金交易更为活跃，因此成交占比高达20%左右。进一步到南向资金内部，公募基金持股占比也逐年提升，从2018年的6.9%大幅提升至2021年四季度的21.5%（《公募4Q21港股持仓：持仓继续回落但转机渐现》）。持股偏好上，相比海外资金，南向资金更偏好新经济。后续展望：流动性冲击的恐慌抛售基本结束，逐步进入估值修复；后续稳增长力度、监管动向及俄乌局势是关键往后看，我们预计市场的修复可能分三步走。首先是流动性冲击的修复。得益于3月中旬金融委政策维稳信号和近期中美监管合作的积极进展，市场从底部反弹逐步企稳，流动性冲击下的恐慌抛售基本结束，但后续俄乌局势依然值得关注。第二步是重回年初的估值修复逻辑，这一情形与2016年初和2019年初较为类似，即盈利预期和增长尚未回升，但稳增长预期和流动性宽松环境下南向资金流入推动估值修复。第三步看基本面是否能够企稳提供进一步支撑，关注后续稳增长政策进展和相关监管措施。短期内，我们倾向于市场维持区间震荡，主要考虑到：1）监管不确定性和地缘局势仍在持续，或使得部分海外基金可能难以很快重新流入；2）国内疫情传播仍然处于上升趋势；3）稳增长政策的力度和时点仍待验证；4）卖空占比仍然居高。不过，市场也并不乏积极的因素，如估值水平已经具有相当吸引力；更多企业正筹划扩大股票回购力度或发放高额股息；香港本地疫情高点正在过去逐步缓解。整体而言，我们认为港股市场的中期机会仍然大于风险，国内政策对于提升投资者风险偏好起到关键性作用。配置方面，我们认为低估值高股息标的和前期调整幅度较大的优质成长股将提供更好的配置价值，所谓“哑铃型”策略；同时香港本地消费和金融股在香港疫情改善背景下也值得关注。图表1：虽然市场回调明显，但南向资金进入2022年以来逆势流入，而北向资金大举流出资料来源：万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表2：南向资金对于新经济的偏好愈发显著资料来源：万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表3：EPFR口径下，海外主动资金近期流出压力较大，而被动资金却依然加速流入资料来源：EPFR， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表4：三月以来海外主动型基金分别连续流出港股以及中概股市场，而南向资金却依然逆势攀升资料来源：EPFR， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表5：BoP口径下，中国权益资产日度流出规模创2005年以来新高资料来源：IIF，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表6：从外资机构对于海外中资股持股占总市值数据来看近期同样有所下降资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表7：挪威主权财富基金中国股票持股数量与整体持股市值在2021年均有所下降资料来源：Norges Bank年报， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表8：投资于新兴市场的海外主动型基金（EPFR口径）目前已经低配海外中资股资料来源：EPFR， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表9：当前MSCI新兴市场指数中，中资股占比约为27%资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表10：从港股通标的中介持股层面来看，国际中介持股当前能占到整体市值的43.7%资料来源：万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表11：港股市场海外和本地交易额占比差距逐渐拉大资料来源：港交所，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表12：海外交易额中，中国资金占比逐年提升资料来源：港交所，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表13：近期港元对美元贬值压力明显资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表14：A/H溢价自年初小幅回落后重回高位，基本处于长期历史均值一倍标准差以上资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表15：股票回购加速往往预示中期市场可能企稳反弹资料来源：彭博资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表16：港股市场卖空成交占比仍处于高位资料来源：彭博资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表17：港股通成交额占港股成交额比例逐年提升资料来源：彭博资讯， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表18：港股通中内地公募基金持股市值占比约为21.3%资料来源：彭博资讯， FactSet， 万得资讯， 中金公司研究部；数据截止2022年4月1日图表19：市场急大跌后的表现资料来源：万得资讯，中金公司研究部；数据截止至2022年4月1日","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"870436":0,"HSCEI":0,"HSCCI":0,"CYB":0,"CNHmain":0,"HSTECH":0,"UCmain":0,"QNETCN":0,"HSI":0,"TTTN":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}