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2021-06-18

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NIO Is Winning

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This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169649031,"gmtCreate":1623834699623,"gmtModify":1703820869276,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169649031","repostId":"1126302775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160316118,"gmtCreate":1623772172034,"gmtModify":1703819026950,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160316118","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150591447","pubTimestamp":1623769391,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150591447?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150591447","media":"CNBC","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put ","content":"<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1150591447","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day meeting Wednesday, could start preliminary discussions about scaling back the unprecedented bond-buying programs that aided the economy during the pandemic. Some market participants believe it’s still too soon for the central bank to signal such a tapering action, while others think the Fed will be able to find a happy medium that won’t upset the markets.\nEach scenario has different investing implications as they are expected to make big moves across asset classes.\nHere’s a playbook for traders on every scenario from the central bank’s key meeting.\nIf the Fed signals it’s staying with easy policies\nThe Fed could reiterate its transitory stance on inflation, ignoring the pick-up in price pressures reflected in recent economic data. If the central bank says its not time to remove accommodative policies and it’s not concerned about inflation, investors should stick with hedges against rising prices like commodities and stocks with high pricing power, investment banks found.\nBank of America screened S&P 500 companies that its analysts believe have the most pricing power and ability to expand margins at times of rising prices. The stocks include a few chipmakers —Nvidia,Texas InstrumentsandBroadcom— as well as consumer plays likeHome Depot,NikeandPepsiCo.Energy dividend payerExxon Mobilis also on the list.\nUBS also developed a framework for scoring corporate pricing agility, which considers pricing power, margin momentum and input cost exposure. For pricing power, UBS quantified the extent to which a company can raise prices over and above costs. For margin momentum, UBS tracked corporate pricing trends using its proprietary pricing mapping.\nFor input cost exposure, UBS searched for companies with negative sentiment around commodity and transport costs on earnings calls.\n\nBillionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said earlier this week that investors should “go all in on the inflation trades” if the Fed keeps ignoring higher prices.\n“If they treat these numbers — which were material events, they were very material —if they treat them with nonchalance, I think it’s just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade,” Tudor Jones said on “Squawk Box”on Monday.\n“If they say, ‘We’re on path, things are good,’ then I would just go all in on the inflation trades. I’d probably buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold,” added Tudor Jones, who called the stock market crash in 1987.\nThe legendary investor believe cryptocurrencies and other commodities are favorable inflation hedges. Other than buying the commodities outright, investors could also bet on related exchange-traded funds, like gold miner ETFs.\nThe VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX),the biggest gold miner ETF with more than $14 billion in assets under management, has outperformed the populargold ETF GLDso far this year.\nIf the Fed signals it’s time to start removing easy policies\nAnother widely speculated scenario is for the Fed to signal that it’s nearing the time to dial back easy policy saying it will start tapering soon and move up its forecast for a rate increase. Under such a case where the central bank isn’t sufficiently dovish, many expect bond yields to shoot higher.\n“It could easily move longer yields higher,” said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist. “A revised dot plot could be one way to do that if it shows the anticipation of earlier or more aggressive rate hikes. And Fed Chair Jay Powell could easily push rates up if he shares that the Fed has started discussing tapering or suggests tapering could start in the next several months.”\nTudor Jones warned that this scenario could lead to another taper tantrum that could cause a correction in stocks.\n“If they course correct, if they say, ‘We’ve got incoming data, we’ve accomplished our mission or we’re on the way very rapidly to accomplishing our mission on employment,’ then you’re going to get a taper tantrum,”Tudor Jones said on Monday. “You’re going to get a sell-off in fixed income. You’re going to get a correction in stocks.”\nCNBC Pro combed through the returns of all S&P 500 stocks during the last five significant spikes in the 10-year Treasury yield. These five periods of a sharp move in rates occurred between 2003 and 2006, 2008 and 2009, 2012 and 2013, 2016 and 2018, and 2020 through now.\nAfter we found the stocks that beat the market every time, we looked for the names that are well-loved by analysts on Wall Street today. The stocks’ average gains during those rising interest rate periods are listed below, along with the percentage of analysts with buy ratings right now.\n\nBank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian is advising clients to buy high-quality stocks when tapering nears. High-quality stocks have a “B+” or better S&P quality rating.\nSubramanian said during the 2013 taper tantrum, high-quality names outperformed their low-quality counterparts by 1.3 percentage points from peak to trough in May and June.\nA hint at removing stimulus could also hurt stocks that are most sensitive to the economic recovery, including cyclicals like financials, energy and materials.\n“More hawkish = lower growth. Cyclicals should underperform,” Dennis DeBusschere, macro research analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “The fact that hawkish concerns are being brought up at the same time people believe the reflation trade is in trouble and you have a poor Cyclical backdrop.”\nSo far in 2021, the energy sector has been the biggest winner among the 11 S&P 500 groupings, up 46%. Financials and real estate both gained more than 20% this year.\nIf the Fed makes both camps happy\nA third scenario could occur in which the Fed signals that it is concerned about inflation, but the central bank is not yet ready to taper.\nIf Fed chair Jerome Powell admits the discussion of tapering but nothing has been decided, then the market will likely see a modest rally, led by tech stocks, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.\n“This is essentially the outcome that Powell and the Fed have been telegraphing for the past several weeks,” Essaye said. “This would be a continuation of the past two weeks’ Goldilocks market outlook. This outcome would help the S&P 500 extend last week’s breakout.”\nInvestors have been rotating back to tech as of late with bond yields coming down. The tech-heavyNasdaq Compositehas rallied about 2.5% this month, hitting a record close on Monday, its first all-time high since April 26. In comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just under 1% in June.\n“This is what the Fed has been doing for the last several months — warning that an inflation surge was coming but that it is transitory so no need to taper,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. “Moreover, this is probably the most expected outcome from the Fed meeting.”\n“Yes, there may be comments by members that the time to start talking about tapering is here, but I think Powell will continue to suggest that inflation is up as expected but is not yet acting any differently than anticipated,” added Paulsen.\nThis year’s pullback in tech stocks has opened some opportunities in high-quality names that are now trading at a discount, according to top-rated technology analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.\nThe Wall Street firm found several technology stocks that have inexpensive valuations and are high in quality. Bernstein screened for the cheapest tech names based on their forward price-to-earnings ratio. The firm also assigned each stock with a quality score.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160318702,"gmtCreate":1623772160106,"gmtModify":1703819026465,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160318702","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351800139,"gmtCreate":1616579995521,"gmtModify":1704795922758,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351800139","repostId":"1178385748","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178385748","pubTimestamp":1616579432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178385748?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The End of Tesla’s Dominance May Be Closer Than It Appears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178385748","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Elon Musk’s upstart still rules, but traditional automakers are catching up fast.\nHe doesn’t date a ","content":"<p>Elon Musk’s upstart still rules, but traditional automakers are catching up fast.</p>\n<p>He doesn’t date a synth-pop star, publicly puff on blunts, or profess to want to die on Mars, but Herbert Diess is starting to look and sound an awful lot like&nbsp;Elon Musk.</p>\n<p>The chief executive officer of&nbsp;Volkswagen AG&nbsp;kicked off a March 15 news conference modeled after&nbsp;Tesla Inc.’s “Battery Day”—Diess called his “Power Day”—by declaring that there’s only one way to quickly reduce emissions from transportation: Go electric. Skeptics could be forgiven for raising their eyebrows at that message, coming as it was from the same carmaker that spent years gaslighting the world about “clean diesel.” But VW is finally seeing the payoff from its&nbsp;five-year effort&nbsp;to create a standardized platform to underpin dozens of electric models. “Many in the industry questioned our approach,” Diess said during the two-hour infomercial he led from VW’s headquarters in the German city of Wolfsburg. “Today they are following suit, while we are reaping the fruit.”</p>\n<p>VW last year became the&nbsp;No. 1 electric-vehicle maker in Europe, where sales of battery-powered cars surged thanks to stricter carbon dioxide limits. After the introduction of the&nbsp;ID.3&nbsp;hatchback in 2020, the ID.4 crossover—the first global model based on VW’s electric platform—is starting to reach showrooms from Shanghai to Chicago. This year, VW plans to deliver 1 million plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, and Diess aims to surpass Tesla in EV sales no later than 2025. Some analysts predict it will happen much sooner.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f575bfbac7cb6073a2daaddcc86628dc\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"610\"></p>\n<p>In addition to staging splashy events, mixing it up on Twitter, and spewing shameless bombast, Diess has something else in common with Musk lately: a&nbsp;stock price headed into the stratosphere. Sure, Tesla’s sky-high valuation means Musk could afford to buy VW tomorrow if he so desired (he doesn’t), but VW’s common shares have jumped more than 80% this year. Musk has long said that he welcomes EV competition and that Tesla’s mission was to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. He got what he wanted.</p>\n<p>EVs are shifting from what seemed like a one-man show to an extravaganza with an increasingly crowded stage. Although VW has as good a chance as anyone to share top billing with Tesla, what’s less clear is the rest of the cast.General Motors Co.&nbsp;CEO Mary Barra sent her stock price soaring in January when she said she wanted to&nbsp;phase out gas and diesel cars by 2035. Many Chinese manufacturers are rolling out budget EVs, and&nbsp;Hyundai Motor Co.&nbsp;is planning almost two dozen models.Renault SA&nbsp;had a&nbsp;surprise hit&nbsp;in Europe last year with its Zoe, a battery-powered hatchback. In the U.S., Ford Motor’s Mustang Mach-E is hitting showrooms, and Amazon.com-backed Rivian Automotive and Lucid Motors—a Tesla clone that’s on track to raise $4.4 billion in funding—are seeking to replicate Musk’s success.</p>\n<p>Tesla has done to the auto industry what Netflix Inc. did to cable TV, speeding the shift away from internal combustion in much the same way easy access to<i>Breaking Bad</i>and hundreds of other shows spurred consumers to take the scissors to their Comcast contracts. But just as Netflix now sees a growing challenge from parts of the old guard—think Walt Disney Co. and HBO—incumbent automakers are starting to emulate the upstart. (Of course, cable TV companies also face a threat from the likes of Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., and Google, which in this analogy are … Amazon, Apple, and Google.)</p>\n<p>Even though Disney+ was years behind Netflix, Disney’s service has been a runaway success with new fare such as<i>The Mandalorian</i>offered alongside its deep catalog of classics like&nbsp;<i>Pinocchio</i>,<i>Toy Story</i>, and&nbsp;<i>Mulan</i>. Similarly, Diess has won over investors by making the case that VW can exploit something Tesla doesn’t have much of yet: scale. With a dozen brands that fill every nook and cranny of the auto market—and sales last year of 9.3 million vehicles, compared with a half-million for Tesla—VW is uniquely positioned to pool resources and bear the cost of developing new technologies. By next year, VW will have 27 models based on its standardized platform. “Our transformation will be fast,” Diess said at his event, “bigger than anything the industry has seen in the past century.”</p>\n<p>Like Musk, Diess is going big on batteries and charging stations. By 2025, VW and its partners will have more than 35,000&nbsp;public chargers around the world. And one element of its legal agreement with the U.S. and California over cheating on emissions tests was a pledge to spend $2 billion promoting plug-ins and building charging infrastructure. VW in 2017 set up an affiliate called Electrify America that now boasts the largest fast-charging network in the U.S. Diess is also planning a&nbsp;half-dozen battery factories&nbsp;in Europe, which Bloomberg&nbsp;NEF estimates will require an investment of almost $18 billion. The energy researcher says improvements in cell design, battery chemistry, and manufacturing put VW on track to cut the cost of batteries in half by as early as 2025. That could make its EVs cheaper than similarly equipped combustion cars.</p>\n<p>Some rivals insist VW’s&nbsp;headlong charge&nbsp;into electric cars is imprudent because they remain a sliver of global sales—roughly 3% of vehicles delivered worldwide last year.Toyota Motor Corp., which narrowly surpassed VW as the world’s largest automaker in 2020, has long argued hybrids are a more sensible intermediate solution. And&nbsp;BMW AG&nbsp;has embraced flexibility, building many of its models in various versions: gasoline-powered, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric. “We think a one-propulsion strategy could be very dangerous,” CEO Oliver Zipse told&nbsp;Bloomberg Television&nbsp;on March 17. “The likelihood that 150, 160 markets in a very short period of time—and one decade is a very short period of time—will converge fully into one drivetrain is highly unlikely.”</p>\n<p>Diess has no plans to hit the brakes. Even as the first models from the current platform start to roll out, VW is furiously developing a separate set of standard components for electric vehicles from Audi, Porsche, and its other upscale brands. That premium platform promises speedier charging times, greater range, and faster acceleration than the first-generation models. By the middle of the decade, VW says it will have a single scalable system to underpin all its battery-powered cars—no matter the brand or segment—as it aims to sell 26 million of them in the next 10 years. “They’ve got confidence that they can catch up with Tesla,” says Michael Dean, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who expects VW to take the global EV crown by 2023. “Their foray into electrification is serious.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The End of Tesla’s Dominance May Be Closer Than It Appears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe End of Tesla’s Dominance May Be Closer Than It Appears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 17:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/tesla-tsla-and-elon-musk-s-dominance-is-threatened-by-volkswagen><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk’s upstart still rules, but traditional automakers are catching up fast.\nHe doesn’t date a synth-pop star, publicly puff on blunts, or profess to want to die on Mars, but Herbert Diess is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/tesla-tsla-and-elon-musk-s-dominance-is-threatened-by-volkswagen\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/tesla-tsla-and-elon-musk-s-dominance-is-threatened-by-volkswagen","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178385748","content_text":"Elon Musk’s upstart still rules, but traditional automakers are catching up fast.\nHe doesn’t date a synth-pop star, publicly puff on blunts, or profess to want to die on Mars, but Herbert Diess is starting to look and sound an awful lot like Elon Musk.\nThe chief executive officer of Volkswagen AG kicked off a March 15 news conference modeled after Tesla Inc.’s “Battery Day”—Diess called his “Power Day”—by declaring that there’s only one way to quickly reduce emissions from transportation: Go electric. Skeptics could be forgiven for raising their eyebrows at that message, coming as it was from the same carmaker that spent years gaslighting the world about “clean diesel.” But VW is finally seeing the payoff from its five-year effort to create a standardized platform to underpin dozens of electric models. “Many in the industry questioned our approach,” Diess said during the two-hour infomercial he led from VW’s headquarters in the German city of Wolfsburg. “Today they are following suit, while we are reaping the fruit.”\nVW last year became the No. 1 electric-vehicle maker in Europe, where sales of battery-powered cars surged thanks to stricter carbon dioxide limits. After the introduction of the ID.3 hatchback in 2020, the ID.4 crossover—the first global model based on VW’s electric platform—is starting to reach showrooms from Shanghai to Chicago. This year, VW plans to deliver 1 million plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, and Diess aims to surpass Tesla in EV sales no later than 2025. Some analysts predict it will happen much sooner.\n\nIn addition to staging splashy events, mixing it up on Twitter, and spewing shameless bombast, Diess has something else in common with Musk lately: a stock price headed into the stratosphere. Sure, Tesla’s sky-high valuation means Musk could afford to buy VW tomorrow if he so desired (he doesn’t), but VW’s common shares have jumped more than 80% this year. Musk has long said that he welcomes EV competition and that Tesla’s mission was to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. He got what he wanted.\nEVs are shifting from what seemed like a one-man show to an extravaganza with an increasingly crowded stage. Although VW has as good a chance as anyone to share top billing with Tesla, what’s less clear is the rest of the cast.General Motors Co. CEO Mary Barra sent her stock price soaring in January when she said she wanted to phase out gas and diesel cars by 2035. Many Chinese manufacturers are rolling out budget EVs, and Hyundai Motor Co. is planning almost two dozen models.Renault SA had a surprise hit in Europe last year with its Zoe, a battery-powered hatchback. In the U.S., Ford Motor’s Mustang Mach-E is hitting showrooms, and Amazon.com-backed Rivian Automotive and Lucid Motors—a Tesla clone that’s on track to raise $4.4 billion in funding—are seeking to replicate Musk’s success.\nTesla has done to the auto industry what Netflix Inc. did to cable TV, speeding the shift away from internal combustion in much the same way easy access toBreaking Badand hundreds of other shows spurred consumers to take the scissors to their Comcast contracts. But just as Netflix now sees a growing challenge from parts of the old guard—think Walt Disney Co. and HBO—incumbent automakers are starting to emulate the upstart. (Of course, cable TV companies also face a threat from the likes of Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., and Google, which in this analogy are … Amazon, Apple, and Google.)\nEven though Disney+ was years behind Netflix, Disney’s service has been a runaway success with new fare such asThe Mandalorianoffered alongside its deep catalog of classics like Pinocchio,Toy Story, and Mulan. Similarly, Diess has won over investors by making the case that VW can exploit something Tesla doesn’t have much of yet: scale. With a dozen brands that fill every nook and cranny of the auto market—and sales last year of 9.3 million vehicles, compared with a half-million for Tesla—VW is uniquely positioned to pool resources and bear the cost of developing new technologies. By next year, VW will have 27 models based on its standardized platform. “Our transformation will be fast,” Diess said at his event, “bigger than anything the industry has seen in the past century.”\nLike Musk, Diess is going big on batteries and charging stations. By 2025, VW and its partners will have more than 35,000 public chargers around the world. And one element of its legal agreement with the U.S. and California over cheating on emissions tests was a pledge to spend $2 billion promoting plug-ins and building charging infrastructure. VW in 2017 set up an affiliate called Electrify America that now boasts the largest fast-charging network in the U.S. Diess is also planning a half-dozen battery factories in Europe, which Bloomberg NEF estimates will require an investment of almost $18 billion. The energy researcher says improvements in cell design, battery chemistry, and manufacturing put VW on track to cut the cost of batteries in half by as early as 2025. That could make its EVs cheaper than similarly equipped combustion cars.\nSome rivals insist VW’s headlong charge into electric cars is imprudent because they remain a sliver of global sales—roughly 3% of vehicles delivered worldwide last year.Toyota Motor Corp., which narrowly surpassed VW as the world’s largest automaker in 2020, has long argued hybrids are a more sensible intermediate solution. And BMW AG has embraced flexibility, building many of its models in various versions: gasoline-powered, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric. “We think a one-propulsion strategy could be very dangerous,” CEO Oliver Zipse told Bloomberg Television on March 17. “The likelihood that 150, 160 markets in a very short period of time—and one decade is a very short period of time—will converge fully into one drivetrain is highly unlikely.”\nDiess has no plans to hit the brakes. Even as the first models from the current platform start to roll out, VW is furiously developing a separate set of standard components for electric vehicles from Audi, Porsche, and its other upscale brands. That premium platform promises speedier charging times, greater range, and faster acceleration than the first-generation models. By the middle of the decade, VW says it will have a single scalable system to underpin all its battery-powered cars—no matter the brand or segment—as it aims to sell 26 million of them in the next 10 years. “They’ve got confidence that they can catch up with Tesla,” says Michael Dean, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who expects VW to take the global EV crown by 2023. “Their foray into electrification is serious.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351177941,"gmtCreate":1616579934583,"gmtModify":1704795920637,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351177941","repostId":"1169987647","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327928699,"gmtCreate":1616052699111,"gmtModify":1704790244087,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327928699","repostId":"2120130261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327928306,"gmtCreate":1616052647105,"gmtModify":1704790243601,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327928306","repostId":"2120518003","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120518003","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1616048919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120518003?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 14:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Biotech Stocks That Could Double In 12 Months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120518003","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Biotech stocks are risky investment bets that can swing an investor's fortunes in a big way. An inve","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99883de80af9932feab97ad0486ef6d3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Biotech stocks are risky investment bets that can swing an investor's fortunes in a big way. An investment decision backed by careful scrutiny and analysis&nbsp;— of a company's&nbsp;pipeline, collaborations, fundamentals, key make-or-break events and cash runway&nbsp;— can fetch disproportionate returns.</p>\n<p>Here are three biopharma stocks that have the potential to more than double from current levels:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Immatics </b>(NASDAQ: IMTX)</li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FGEN\">FibroGen, Inc</a>. </b>(NASDAQ: FGEN)</li>\n <li><b>Replimune Group, Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: REPL)</li>\n <li><b>Immatics: </b> Immatics is a clinical-stage biopharma engaged in the discovery and development of T cell directing cancer immunotherapies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The shares of the German biotech were listed on the Nasdaq in July 2020 following its business combination with Arya Sciences Acquisition Corp, a SPAC sponsored by Perceptive Advisors.</p>\n<p><b>The Pipeline: </b> The company's T cell receptor (TCR)-based&nbsp;immunotherapies offer a targeted therapy to patients with high medical need. It has two lead product classes, namely engineered Adoptive Cell Therapies, or ACTengine, and antibody-like TCR Bispecifics, or TCER.</p>\n<p>ACTengine is based on genetically engineering patients own T cells —&nbsp;a type of blood cells that are key to the immune system —&nbsp;with a TCR to recognize the cancer target. This would program the T cells to attack the tumor. These engineered T cells are then multiplied in labs and reinfused into the patients to treat the tumor.</p>\n<p>The product candidates belonging to the class ACT are IMA201, IMA 202 and IMA203, which are in Phase 1 trials, as well as IMA204, which is in preclinical development. IMA301 is preclinical stage ACT allo product candidate.</p>\n<p>IMA401 and IMA402 are two preclinical TCR bispecifics candidates.</p>\n<p>The company has a string of partnerships with large biopharma companies such as <b>Amgen Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AMGN), <b>Bristol-Myers Squibb Company </b>(NYSE: BMY) and <b>GlaxoSmithKline plc </b>(NYSE: GSK).</p>\n<p>\"Overall, we view TCR approaches as potentially transformational for the solid tumor therapeutic space, with the ability to target a wide range of antigens not accessible by CAR-T or classical antibody approaches,\" SVB Leerink analyst Jonathan Chang said in a note.</p>\n<p>Although competition is steadily increasing, Immatics' comprehensive TCR-based immunotherapy approach will expand the potential utilization of TCRs across a broad range of tumor types and stages, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Cash and cash equivalents as well as other financial assets stood at $303.6 million&nbsp;as of Sept, 30, 2020, providing cash runway into 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming Catalysts: </b>Combined initial data readout from its ACTengine product candidates,&nbsp;IMA201 and IMA 202,&nbsp;in solid tumors and IMA203 in hematologic malignancies and solid cancers in the first quarter.</p>\n<p>Investigational new drug application filing for IMA204 in solid cancers in 2021.</p>\n<p>IND filing for IMA301 in hematological and solid cancers in 2022.</p>\n<p>IND filing for IMA-401 in solid cancers by year end 2022.</p>\n<p><b>FibroGen: </b> FibroGen focuses on advancing treatment options for anemia, fibrotic disease and cancer, leveraging its expertise in fibrosis and hypoxia-inducible factor biology.</p>\n<p>HIF is a protein complex that plays a key role in the body's response to low oxygen concentrations and inflammation.</p>\n<p><b>The Pipeline: </b> FibroGen's anemia drug roxadustat is being developed along with <b>AstraZeneca <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> </b>(NASDAQ: AZN). It is approved in China and Japan for chronic kidney disease-induced anemia, and awaits clearance in the U.S. and Europe for the same indication.</p>\n<p>It is also being evaluated for anemia in myelodysplastic syndrome patients and chemotherapy-induced anemia.</p>\n<p>FibroGen's fibrotic portfolio consists of pamrevlumab, which is being evaluated for multiple indications such as pancreatic cancer, Duchenne muscular atrophy, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and COVID-19.</p>\n<p>The company's announcement March 1 regarding the FDA's decision to hold an Adcom meeting ahead of the roxadustat PDUFA date of March 20 led to a sell-off in shares. The stock has pulled back over 30% since the start of March.</p>\n<p>\"At this reduced share price we believe that the market is still undervaluing FibroGen's anti-CTGF antibody pamrevlumab, which is in phase 3 studies for three large indications, as well as roxadustat in China and Japan,\" SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges said in a note.</p>\n<p>Even in the bear-case scenario of no approval for roxadustat in the U.S. and EU, FibroGen shares are worth $52/share, according to the analyst.</p>\n<p>This, the analyst said, is an unlikely scenario. Approval for the drug in both dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis-dependent patients&nbsp;could push the stock value up to $85, he said.</p>\n<p>The company recently initiated a Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in combination with systemic corticosteroids in patients with ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy.</p>\n<p>FibroGen expects to end 2021 with cash in the range of $660 to $670 million.</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming Catalysts: </b>Phase 2 data for roxadustat in chemotherapy-induced anemia in the second-half of 2021.</p>\n<p>Data from the Phase 3 study of roxadustat in anemia of myelodysplastic syndromes in the first half of 2022.</p>\n<p>Resection data from the Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in locally advanced pancreatic cancer in the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p>Data from the Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in DMD in the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p><i>Related Link: Attention Biotech Investors: Mark Your Calendar For March PDUFA Dates</i></p>\n<p><b>Replimune: </b> Replimune is a pursuing a novel approach in taking on cancer with its oncolytic immunotherapy. It uses viruses that have been modified to selectively replicate in tumor cells and kill them. In a two-pronged strategy, oncolytic viruses kill tumors at the site of injection and also activate immune system to kill cancer cells anywhere in the body.</p>\n<p>The company's lead candidate RP1 is being evaluated as a monotherapy as well as in combination with anti-PD1 antibodies such as Bristol-Myers Squibb's Opdivo and the&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCVRZ\">Sanofi</a> </b>(NASDAQ: SNY)-<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a>, Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: REGN) combo's Libtayo for multiple cancer types such as melanoma, non-melanoma skin cancer, micro instability-high cancers, non-small cell lung cancer, or NSCLC, and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, or CSCC.</p>\n<p>RP2 and RP2 are being studied as monotherapy option and in combination with anti-PD1 antibodies against solid tumors.</p>\n<p>\"While the oncolytic virus landscape is competitive, we believe REPL has a lower risk profile given similarities between REPL's approach and the clinically validated T-Vec approach and the fact that REPL is being led by the same team that developed T-Vec,\" SVB Leerink analyst Chang said.</p>\n<p>The cash balance of $493.3 million as of Dec. 31, the company said, will fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into the second half of 2024.</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming Catalysts: </b>Initial data for RP1 in new indications such as anti-PD1 failed NSCLC, anti-PD1 failed CSCC and CSCC solid organ transplant recipient patients due in 2021.</p>\n<p>Updates across all RP1 programs anticipated in 2021.</p>\n<p>Initial Phase 1 data for RP2 in combination with Opdivo due in 2021.</p>\n<p>Initial single-agent data for RP3 in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Screening Criteria Used: </b>Market cap of over $300 million.</p>\n<p>Average trading volume of over 100,000.</p>\n<p>Cash runway of two-plus years.</p>\n<p>Sell-side rating of Buy or above.</p>\n<p>Key upcoming catalysts.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Biotech Stocks That Could Double In 12 Months</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Biotech Stocks That Could Double In 12 Months\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-18 14:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99883de80af9932feab97ad0486ef6d3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Biotech stocks are risky investment bets that can swing an investor's fortunes in a big way. An investment decision backed by careful scrutiny and analysis&nbsp;— of a company's&nbsp;pipeline, collaborations, fundamentals, key make-or-break events and cash runway&nbsp;— can fetch disproportionate returns.</p>\n<p>Here are three biopharma stocks that have the potential to more than double from current levels:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Immatics </b>(NASDAQ: IMTX)</li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FGEN\">FibroGen, Inc</a>. </b>(NASDAQ: FGEN)</li>\n <li><b>Replimune Group, Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: REPL)</li>\n <li><b>Immatics: </b> Immatics is a clinical-stage biopharma engaged in the discovery and development of T cell directing cancer immunotherapies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The shares of the German biotech were listed on the Nasdaq in July 2020 following its business combination with Arya Sciences Acquisition Corp, a SPAC sponsored by Perceptive Advisors.</p>\n<p><b>The Pipeline: </b> The company's T cell receptor (TCR)-based&nbsp;immunotherapies offer a targeted therapy to patients with high medical need. It has two lead product classes, namely engineered Adoptive Cell Therapies, or ACTengine, and antibody-like TCR Bispecifics, or TCER.</p>\n<p>ACTengine is based on genetically engineering patients own T cells —&nbsp;a type of blood cells that are key to the immune system —&nbsp;with a TCR to recognize the cancer target. This would program the T cells to attack the tumor. These engineered T cells are then multiplied in labs and reinfused into the patients to treat the tumor.</p>\n<p>The product candidates belonging to the class ACT are IMA201, IMA 202 and IMA203, which are in Phase 1 trials, as well as IMA204, which is in preclinical development. IMA301 is preclinical stage ACT allo product candidate.</p>\n<p>IMA401 and IMA402 are two preclinical TCR bispecifics candidates.</p>\n<p>The company has a string of partnerships with large biopharma companies such as <b>Amgen Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AMGN), <b>Bristol-Myers Squibb Company </b>(NYSE: BMY) and <b>GlaxoSmithKline plc </b>(NYSE: GSK).</p>\n<p>\"Overall, we view TCR approaches as potentially transformational for the solid tumor therapeutic space, with the ability to target a wide range of antigens not accessible by CAR-T or classical antibody approaches,\" SVB Leerink analyst Jonathan Chang said in a note.</p>\n<p>Although competition is steadily increasing, Immatics' comprehensive TCR-based immunotherapy approach will expand the potential utilization of TCRs across a broad range of tumor types and stages, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Cash and cash equivalents as well as other financial assets stood at $303.6 million&nbsp;as of Sept, 30, 2020, providing cash runway into 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming Catalysts: </b>Combined initial data readout from its ACTengine product candidates,&nbsp;IMA201 and IMA 202,&nbsp;in solid tumors and IMA203 in hematologic malignancies and solid cancers in the first quarter.</p>\n<p>Investigational new drug application filing for IMA204 in solid cancers in 2021.</p>\n<p>IND filing for IMA301 in hematological and solid cancers in 2022.</p>\n<p>IND filing for IMA-401 in solid cancers by year end 2022.</p>\n<p><b>FibroGen: </b> FibroGen focuses on advancing treatment options for anemia, fibrotic disease and cancer, leveraging its expertise in fibrosis and hypoxia-inducible factor biology.</p>\n<p>HIF is a protein complex that plays a key role in the body's response to low oxygen concentrations and inflammation.</p>\n<p><b>The Pipeline: </b> FibroGen's anemia drug roxadustat is being developed along with <b>AstraZeneca <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> </b>(NASDAQ: AZN). It is approved in China and Japan for chronic kidney disease-induced anemia, and awaits clearance in the U.S. and Europe for the same indication.</p>\n<p>It is also being evaluated for anemia in myelodysplastic syndrome patients and chemotherapy-induced anemia.</p>\n<p>FibroGen's fibrotic portfolio consists of pamrevlumab, which is being evaluated for multiple indications such as pancreatic cancer, Duchenne muscular atrophy, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and COVID-19.</p>\n<p>The company's announcement March 1 regarding the FDA's decision to hold an Adcom meeting ahead of the roxadustat PDUFA date of March 20 led to a sell-off in shares. The stock has pulled back over 30% since the start of March.</p>\n<p>\"At this reduced share price we believe that the market is still undervaluing FibroGen's anti-CTGF antibody pamrevlumab, which is in phase 3 studies for three large indications, as well as roxadustat in China and Japan,\" SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges said in a note.</p>\n<p>Even in the bear-case scenario of no approval for roxadustat in the U.S. and EU, FibroGen shares are worth $52/share, according to the analyst.</p>\n<p>This, the analyst said, is an unlikely scenario. Approval for the drug in both dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis-dependent patients&nbsp;could push the stock value up to $85, he said.</p>\n<p>The company recently initiated a Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in combination with systemic corticosteroids in patients with ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy.</p>\n<p>FibroGen expects to end 2021 with cash in the range of $660 to $670 million.</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming Catalysts: </b>Phase 2 data for roxadustat in chemotherapy-induced anemia in the second-half of 2021.</p>\n<p>Data from the Phase 3 study of roxadustat in anemia of myelodysplastic syndromes in the first half of 2022.</p>\n<p>Resection data from the Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in locally advanced pancreatic cancer in the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p>Data from the Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in DMD in the second half of 2022.</p>\n<p><i>Related Link: Attention Biotech Investors: Mark Your Calendar For March PDUFA Dates</i></p>\n<p><b>Replimune: </b> Replimune is a pursuing a novel approach in taking on cancer with its oncolytic immunotherapy. It uses viruses that have been modified to selectively replicate in tumor cells and kill them. In a two-pronged strategy, oncolytic viruses kill tumors at the site of injection and also activate immune system to kill cancer cells anywhere in the body.</p>\n<p>The company's lead candidate RP1 is being evaluated as a monotherapy as well as in combination with anti-PD1 antibodies such as Bristol-Myers Squibb's Opdivo and the&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCVRZ\">Sanofi</a> </b>(NASDAQ: SNY)-<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a>, Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: REGN) combo's Libtayo for multiple cancer types such as melanoma, non-melanoma skin cancer, micro instability-high cancers, non-small cell lung cancer, or NSCLC, and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, or CSCC.</p>\n<p>RP2 and RP2 are being studied as monotherapy option and in combination with anti-PD1 antibodies against solid tumors.</p>\n<p>\"While the oncolytic virus landscape is competitive, we believe REPL has a lower risk profile given similarities between REPL's approach and the clinically validated T-Vec approach and the fact that REPL is being led by the same team that developed T-Vec,\" SVB Leerink analyst Chang said.</p>\n<p>The cash balance of $493.3 million as of Dec. 31, the company said, will fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into the second half of 2024.</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming Catalysts: </b>Initial data for RP1 in new indications such as anti-PD1 failed NSCLC, anti-PD1 failed CSCC and CSCC solid organ transplant recipient patients due in 2021.</p>\n<p>Updates across all RP1 programs anticipated in 2021.</p>\n<p>Initial Phase 1 data for RP2 in combination with Opdivo due in 2021.</p>\n<p>Initial single-agent data for RP3 in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Screening Criteria Used: </b>Market cap of over $300 million.</p>\n<p>Average trading volume of over 100,000.</p>\n<p>Cash runway of two-plus years.</p>\n<p>Sell-side rating of Buy or above.</p>\n<p>Key upcoming catalysts.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f481c85fbd4ff2fb9b3089eae9b7a782","relate_stocks":{"FGEN":"FibroGen, Inc","REPL":"Replimune Group Inc.","IMTX":"Immatics N.V."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120518003","content_text":"Biotech stocks are risky investment bets that can swing an investor's fortunes in a big way. An investment decision backed by careful scrutiny and analysis — of a company's pipeline, collaborations, fundamentals, key make-or-break events and cash runway — can fetch disproportionate returns.\nHere are three biopharma stocks that have the potential to more than double from current levels:\n\nImmatics (NASDAQ: IMTX)\nFibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ: FGEN)\nReplimune Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: REPL)\nImmatics:  Immatics is a clinical-stage biopharma engaged in the discovery and development of T cell directing cancer immunotherapies.\n\nThe shares of the German biotech were listed on the Nasdaq in July 2020 following its business combination with Arya Sciences Acquisition Corp, a SPAC sponsored by Perceptive Advisors.\nThe Pipeline:  The company's T cell receptor (TCR)-based immunotherapies offer a targeted therapy to patients with high medical need. It has two lead product classes, namely engineered Adoptive Cell Therapies, or ACTengine, and antibody-like TCR Bispecifics, or TCER.\nACTengine is based on genetically engineering patients own T cells — a type of blood cells that are key to the immune system — with a TCR to recognize the cancer target. This would program the T cells to attack the tumor. These engineered T cells are then multiplied in labs and reinfused into the patients to treat the tumor.\nThe product candidates belonging to the class ACT are IMA201, IMA 202 and IMA203, which are in Phase 1 trials, as well as IMA204, which is in preclinical development. IMA301 is preclinical stage ACT allo product candidate.\nIMA401 and IMA402 are two preclinical TCR bispecifics candidates.\nThe company has a string of partnerships with large biopharma companies such as Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) and GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK).\n\"Overall, we view TCR approaches as potentially transformational for the solid tumor therapeutic space, with the ability to target a wide range of antigens not accessible by CAR-T or classical antibody approaches,\" SVB Leerink analyst Jonathan Chang said in a note.\nAlthough competition is steadily increasing, Immatics' comprehensive TCR-based immunotherapy approach will expand the potential utilization of TCRs across a broad range of tumor types and stages, the analyst said.\nCash and cash equivalents as well as other financial assets stood at $303.6 million as of Sept, 30, 2020, providing cash runway into 2023.\nUpcoming Catalysts: Combined initial data readout from its ACTengine product candidates, IMA201 and IMA 202, in solid tumors and IMA203 in hematologic malignancies and solid cancers in the first quarter.\nInvestigational new drug application filing for IMA204 in solid cancers in 2021.\nIND filing for IMA301 in hematological and solid cancers in 2022.\nIND filing for IMA-401 in solid cancers by year end 2022.\nFibroGen:  FibroGen focuses on advancing treatment options for anemia, fibrotic disease and cancer, leveraging its expertise in fibrosis and hypoxia-inducible factor biology.\nHIF is a protein complex that plays a key role in the body's response to low oxygen concentrations and inflammation.\nThe Pipeline:  FibroGen's anemia drug roxadustat is being developed along with AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ: AZN). It is approved in China and Japan for chronic kidney disease-induced anemia, and awaits clearance in the U.S. and Europe for the same indication.\nIt is also being evaluated for anemia in myelodysplastic syndrome patients and chemotherapy-induced anemia.\nFibroGen's fibrotic portfolio consists of pamrevlumab, which is being evaluated for multiple indications such as pancreatic cancer, Duchenne muscular atrophy, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and COVID-19.\nThe company's announcement March 1 regarding the FDA's decision to hold an Adcom meeting ahead of the roxadustat PDUFA date of March 20 led to a sell-off in shares. The stock has pulled back over 30% since the start of March.\n\"At this reduced share price we believe that the market is still undervaluing FibroGen's anti-CTGF antibody pamrevlumab, which is in phase 3 studies for three large indications, as well as roxadustat in China and Japan,\" SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges said in a note.\nEven in the bear-case scenario of no approval for roxadustat in the U.S. and EU, FibroGen shares are worth $52/share, according to the analyst.\nThis, the analyst said, is an unlikely scenario. Approval for the drug in both dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis-dependent patients could push the stock value up to $85, he said.\nThe company recently initiated a Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in combination with systemic corticosteroids in patients with ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy.\nFibroGen expects to end 2021 with cash in the range of $660 to $670 million.\nUpcoming Catalysts: Phase 2 data for roxadustat in chemotherapy-induced anemia in the second-half of 2021.\nData from the Phase 3 study of roxadustat in anemia of myelodysplastic syndromes in the first half of 2022.\nResection data from the Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in locally advanced pancreatic cancer in the second half of 2022.\nData from the Phase 3 study of pamrevlumab in DMD in the second half of 2022.\nRelated Link: Attention Biotech Investors: Mark Your Calendar For March PDUFA Dates\nReplimune:  Replimune is a pursuing a novel approach in taking on cancer with its oncolytic immunotherapy. It uses viruses that have been modified to selectively replicate in tumor cells and kill them. In a two-pronged strategy, oncolytic viruses kill tumors at the site of injection and also activate immune system to kill cancer cells anywhere in the body.\nThe company's lead candidate RP1 is being evaluated as a monotherapy as well as in combination with anti-PD1 antibodies such as Bristol-Myers Squibb's Opdivo and the Sanofi (NASDAQ: SNY)-Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) combo's Libtayo for multiple cancer types such as melanoma, non-melanoma skin cancer, micro instability-high cancers, non-small cell lung cancer, or NSCLC, and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, or CSCC.\nRP2 and RP2 are being studied as monotherapy option and in combination with anti-PD1 antibodies against solid tumors.\n\"While the oncolytic virus landscape is competitive, we believe REPL has a lower risk profile given similarities between REPL's approach and the clinically validated T-Vec approach and the fact that REPL is being led by the same team that developed T-Vec,\" SVB Leerink analyst Chang said.\nThe cash balance of $493.3 million as of Dec. 31, the company said, will fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into the second half of 2024.\nUpcoming Catalysts: Initial data for RP1 in new indications such as anti-PD1 failed NSCLC, anti-PD1 failed CSCC and CSCC solid organ transplant recipient patients due in 2021.\nUpdates across all RP1 programs anticipated in 2021.\nInitial Phase 1 data for RP2 in combination with Opdivo due in 2021.\nInitial single-agent data for RP3 in 2021.\nScreening Criteria Used: Market cap of over $300 million.\nAverage trading volume of over 100,000.\nCash runway of two-plus years.\nSell-side rating of Buy or above.\nKey upcoming catalysts.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324320857,"gmtCreate":1615966709279,"gmtModify":1704789021336,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good info","listText":"Good info","text":"Good info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324320857","repostId":"1180242005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180242005","pubTimestamp":1615966420,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180242005?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-17 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 could surge 8% on strong seasonality and a bullish technical pattern, BofA says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180242005","media":"Business Insider","summary":"The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.","content":"<ul>\n <li><b>The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.</b></li>\n <li><b>The bank pointed to strong seasonality and a developing cup and handle pattern that generates a 4,270 price target on the S&amp;P 500.</b></li>\n <li><b>\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November to April period and is up 66% of the time,\" BofA said.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Record highs in the stock market will continue to be made over the next few weeks if a Tuesday note from Bank of America pans out.</p>\n<p>The bank expects the S&amp;P 500 to hit a 4,270 price target derived from&nbsp;a bullish cup and handle pattern, which represents potential upside of 8% from Monday's close.</p>\n<p>And it's a bullish backdrop for stocks to continue their uptrend based on seasonality data, as April is the strongest month of the best 6-month period of the year, according to the note.</p>\n<p>\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November-April period and is up 66% of the time with an average return of 1.37%,\" BofA said. The bank's seasonality analysis is based on data going back to 1928.</p>\n<p>On top of that, April is the second best month behind July in terms of average return, and the second best month behind December in terms of the percentage of time up, according to BofA.</p>\n<p>From a technical perspective, BofA highlights big picture levels on the S&amp;P 500, based on a bullish cup and handle pattern formed last year. A cup and handle often resembles a cup, formed by a basing pattern that typically looks like a \"U,\" followed by a handle that is formed by a short-term down trend. This pattern usually extends an uptrend that is already in place.</p>\n<p>BofA's 4,270 price target on the S&amp;P 500 is based on a measured move of the depth of the cup formed in March of 2020 and the eventual breakout later in July.</p>\n<p>Also favoring continued upside for the S&amp;P 500 is new highs in Advance/Decline line, which indicates that underlying market breadth is strong. The Advance/Decline line measures the difference of stocks that are moving higher or lower on a daily basis.</p>\n<p>\"A bullish A-D line sets up the S&amp;P 500 for a breakout above 3,950 - 3,960 that would favor upside to 4,065 next with the 2020 cup and handle target at 4,270,\" BofA said.</p>\n<p>And if the S&amp;P 500 does falter, investors should look to big picture support levels at 3,700, 3,550, and 3,200, BofA highlighted.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5e8c7f39d815d6d80277066e3cc5145\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Bank of America</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 could surge 8% on strong seasonality and a bullish technical pattern, BofA says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 could surge 8% on strong seasonality and a bullish technical pattern, BofA says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-to-strong-seasonality-bullish-technicals-bofa-2021-3-1030216115><strong>Business Insider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.\nThe bank pointed to strong seasonality and a developing cup and handle pattern that generates a 4,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-to-strong-seasonality-bullish-technicals-bofa-2021-3-1030216115\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-to-strong-seasonality-bullish-technicals-bofa-2021-3-1030216115","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180242005","content_text":"The stock market could continue its uptrend and surge 8%, Bank of America said in a note on Tuesday.\nThe bank pointed to strong seasonality and a developing cup and handle pattern that generates a 4,270 price target on the S&P 500.\n\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November to April period and is up 66% of the time,\" BofA said.\n\nRecord highs in the stock market will continue to be made over the next few weeks if a Tuesday note from Bank of America pans out.\nThe bank expects the S&P 500 to hit a 4,270 price target derived from a bullish cup and handle pattern, which represents potential upside of 8% from Monday's close.\nAnd it's a bullish backdrop for stocks to continue their uptrend based on seasonality data, as April is the strongest month of the best 6-month period of the year, according to the note.\n\"Seasonality shines in April, which is the strongest month of the November-April period and is up 66% of the time with an average return of 1.37%,\" BofA said. The bank's seasonality analysis is based on data going back to 1928.\nOn top of that, April is the second best month behind July in terms of average return, and the second best month behind December in terms of the percentage of time up, according to BofA.\nFrom a technical perspective, BofA highlights big picture levels on the S&P 500, based on a bullish cup and handle pattern formed last year. A cup and handle often resembles a cup, formed by a basing pattern that typically looks like a \"U,\" followed by a handle that is formed by a short-term down trend. This pattern usually extends an uptrend that is already in place.\nBofA's 4,270 price target on the S&P 500 is based on a measured move of the depth of the cup formed in March of 2020 and the eventual breakout later in July.\nAlso favoring continued upside for the S&P 500 is new highs in Advance/Decline line, which indicates that underlying market breadth is strong. The Advance/Decline line measures the difference of stocks that are moving higher or lower on a daily basis.\n\"A bullish A-D line sets up the S&P 500 for a breakout above 3,950 - 3,960 that would favor upside to 4,065 next with the 2020 cup and handle target at 4,270,\" BofA said.\nAnd if the S&P 500 does falter, investors should look to big picture support levels at 3,700, 3,550, and 3,200, BofA highlighted.\nBank of America","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325469184,"gmtCreate":1615914546248,"gmtModify":1704788477085,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325469184","repostId":"1121564086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121564086","pubTimestamp":1615899026,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121564086?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Larry McDonald Warns \"The Big [Market] Quake Is Coming\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121564086","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech ","content":"<p>The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech stocks are under pressure. Accordingly, tensions are high when the Federal Reserve decides on the future course of its monetary policy this Wednesday.</p>\n<p><i><b>«The Fed has its back against the wall,»</b></i>says Larry McDonald during a conversation via Zoom. The internationally renowned macro strategist and former senior trader at Lehman Brothers warns that the Federal Reserve has little time to mitigate the explosive situation in the bond and currency markets. Otherwise, he says, the global economy is at risk of another crisis.</p>\n<p>Since last spring, the founder of the independent investment advisor&nbsp;The Bear Traps Report&nbsp;has been&nbsp;recommending investments&nbsp;in the commodity sector, where he believes a new super cycle has begun. He&nbsp;reiterated his recommendation&nbsp;during his last conversation with The Market in late 2020. Today, his call for a big reflation trade has become the consensus on Wall Street.</p>\n<p>In this new interview with The Market/NZZ, which has been edited and condensed for clarity, Larry McDonald tells why he expects the Federal Reserve to resort to yield curve control fairly soon and what that will mean for gold and silver. He also explains why the rotation into commodities and value stocks is only just beginning and where he currently sees the best opportunities for investments.</p>\n<p><b>After the turmoil of the past few weeks, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. What can investors expect from Wednesday's Fed meeting?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>We’re at a point where the market is moving way ahead of the Federal Reserve.</b>The Fed is on «outcome-based guidance», but the beast, that serpent in the market, wants more than that. Basically, the market is saying: «The US economy is going to grow 6 or 7% this year, and that will force you to taper in Q3 or Q4.» As investors are pricing in a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases, financial conditions are tightening; especially in emerging markets, where spreads on credit default swaps are rising. So far, financial conditions are nowhere near extremely dangerous levels. But the problem is everybody thinks we’re in a similar situation as back in 2018.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What do you mean by that?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n Once again, the Fed is playing «Tough Guy»: The market demands a policy pivot, but the Fed is trying to hold on to its path, essentially signaling to investors: «No way, relax». We had a similar set-up in 2013, 2016 and 2018. These were the three most significant monetary policy shifts where market pressures broke the Fed's desired policy path.\n <b>The problem is that back then the Fed had far more rope to play Tough Guy since the economy was stronger. In 2018 for instance</b>, the US economy was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. In contrast, today’s employment-to-population ratio is 3.5 percentage points below January 2020 levels. This means 13 million Americans are outside the labor force. To get back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy has to create more than 540,000 jobs a month for two years.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>So what does this mean for this week's Fed meeting?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The Fed is planet earth’s central bank. Every time they tried to play Tough Guy, they’ve blown up the global economy.</b>This time, the Fed's Tough Guy window is much smaller. In 2018 or 2013 that window was nine to ten months. Now, it’s like two months because the economy is so weak. If they let financial conditions tighten further, they risk a major default cycle.\n <b>The negative multiplier effect of a stronger dollar is much higher to the world economy than the Fed anticipates</b>. They can't afford to let the dollar rip higher, because there is so much dollar denominated debt in the world, so much trade tied to the Greenback. If they blow that up, it will just blow back to the US and force the Fed into a policy shift anyway. It’s like with an oil change at the car repair shop: You can pay now or you can pay later. That’s why the Fed has to pay now.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Why?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The Fed’s back is against the wall, all points to proactive action on March 17.</b>They must suppress taper fears and cut these risks off, or else they blow up the global economy for the 4th time since 2013. We’re hearing that they’re already getting incoming calls from emerging market central banks right now. If Fed Chairman Jay Powell plays Tough Guy by staying with the current path, without offering further assurances of deeper, more sustainable accommodation, the beast inside the market will keep pushing him until he breaks. We will see a repeat of Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, where the Fed was forced into an utterly embarrassing pivot. One of those is enough for Powell’s legacy, he doesn’t want two.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What kind of measures can be expected?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Eventually, we will get the taper, but the overwhelming point is other weapons have to come first.</b>A Federal Reserve offering insufficient accommodation places markets in the crosshairs of a risk-off event. The first thing they will try to do is give some hard data points. For example, the US economy has to create 10 million jobs for the Fed to do anything on the balance sheet. Another way they can get out is calendar guidance, but that’s a more sophisticated weaponry. Bottom line, they should just say: «From now until the end of the year QE will continue at $120 billion a month, and we want PCE-inflation to get to between 2 and 2.5% and stay there for 24 months.» With that in place,\n <b>all they have to do is open the door two or three inches for yield curve control, and they can contain the dollar.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The last time the Federal Reserve used yield curve control was during the time of World War II. Why would it resort to such a radical measure?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Here’s the dirty little secret: Too many Treasury bonds are for sale.</b>There aren’t enough buyers, and that will force the Fed to step in. More than $3.6 trillion of US government paper was issued in 2020 versus $2.9 trillion in the prior year. With the new $1.9 trillion fiscal package coming from Washington, issuance in 2021 is slated to rise to $4 trillion. That’s a lot more than the Fed’s Treasury purchases through QE, so the spread between QE and debt issuance gets much wider. Washington is doing so much fiscal stimulus, I’m confident that this is going to force the Fed into yield curve control by September. If that’s the case, it will pressure the dollar lower and put commodities, value stocks, global cyclicals, materials and emerging markets into rotation overdrive.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>How come?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Yield curve control deployment is the tactical nuclear weaponry.</b>If the Fed throws out yield curve control just as a threat, it will suppress Treasury rates and real yields will go much more negative. Over the last couple of months, the issuance has overpowered inflation expectations. Think of it as a car race: Treasury issuances were driving up yields faster than inflation expectations rose. But if the Fed starts to acknowledge that they are going to bring out new weapons like calendar guidance and yield curve control, then they’re suppressing nominal yields. So if inflation expectations continue to rise, then real yields go big negative – and that’s when gold and silver will take off. I think silver can double from here until early next year. Gold could be up 50%.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>How can investors best position themselves in this environment?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n In terms of emerging markets, we’re\n <b>long Chile and Brazil.</b>In Asia, South Korea looks attractive. We also like the KWEB ETF which consists of the big Chinese tech stocks. In the commodity space, we have a position in the XME ETF which owns mainly\n <b>copper and steel names.</b>One of the best companies we own is Teck Resources. This stock is almost like a commodity mutual fund, because the company has exposure to copper, nickel and even energy. Another favorite is Mosaic because in a commodity cycle where you have weather problems around the world,\n <b>agricultural plays are a good bet.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What about precious metals?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>When it comes to precious metals, we love silver miners</b>like Hecla Mining. When the Fed eases its policy, the silver miners will outperform the underlying metal, and they will outperform gold because there is more leverage there.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The gold price is down more than 15% since its all-time high in August. What’s the problem?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Everyone thinks it’s 2013, so taper fears are sky high for gold. But the Fed cannot repeat its mistakes.</b>They must cap yields if they want to preserve the global economic recovery. Thus, the convexity with gold is very attractive. Every leg lower in real yields will act like a slingshot higher for gold. That’s why we love Newmont. The stock trades at 6x EBITDA with a 4% dividend yield which gives you some downside protection. And remember: The 2011-2016 commodity bust has made the balance sheet of these high quality gold mining companies a lot stronger.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>President Joe Biden has just signed off on a $1.9 trillion economic program. What are the chances of a second stimulus bill, aimed at infrastructure?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n It’s important to note that\n <b>a second fiscal deal for 2021 is not a slam dunk.</b>To pass the present $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, the Democrats used reconciliation. It’s a very special trick in US politics, because with reconciliation you don’t need 60 votes to pass a bill in the Senate. All you need is 50 votes. Yet, reconciliation has to be tied to a budget year. This means the next time the Democrats can use it is probably in the fourth quarter, late November or December, and tie it to the following year's budget. So the only way to do an infrastructure bill in the next six months is with a traditional piece of legislation.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Is that even possible, given how wide the rift between Republicans and Democrats has opened in recent years?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n For that you need essentially ten Republicans. Right now, the centrists on the Hill, people like Mitt Romney on the Republican side or Joe Manchin on the Democrat side, are the most powerful people in Washington. They want to do an infrastructure program, but they want to finance it with tax revenue. They don’t believe in things like Modern Monetary Theory where the Fed is financing the deficit.\n <b>So you are going to need a tax hike. And in this regard, we’re hearing they could go after some type of flat tax on the FAANGs, the big technology companies.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What does this mean for Apple, Google, Facebook and other tech heavyweights?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n Keep in mind, we’re in a populist revolution:\n <b>The risk of inequality leading to social unrest is high, and that puts pressure on politicians to pass bills to tax the rich.</b>But a wealth tax is extremely complicated, it would take years. The simplest way to do something in terms of taxes is to tax larger companies. In the eighties, the top 100 companies in the US maintained about 45 to 50% of total profits. Today, the largest 20 companies command about 85 to 90%. In addition to that, close to 40% of the S&amp;P 500’s market cap is related to tech. So tech is the low hanging fruit for the populists in Congress to go after.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>One more reason why tech stocks remain under pressure?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n We run a bunch of models. For example, we look at Berkshire Hathaway’s share price versus the Nasdaq 100 or the Dow Jones Industrial versus the Nasdaq. March 8th was the second time in 2021 that the Nasdaq closed down 2% with the Dow closing higher.\n <b>We haven’t seen this type of data since the dotcom crash. It’s a very rare event which historically coincides with a longer-term rotation out of technology stocks. That’s a very encouraging signal for value stocks.</b>In this regard, we like the EWU ETF. It’s a wonderful basket of stocks because it’s full of financials and world class names like BP, Rio Tinto or Glencore. Officially, it’s called the United Kingdom ETF, but it’s more like a global value ETF.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Does this mean that the rotation towards cyclical stocks has only just begun?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Many investors around the world are long a portfolio of stocks that was designed for the deflationary environment of the previous decade.</b>The decade ahead of us - with all what’s ahead in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus, populism, regulation and taxes - will push investors toward more globally value related stocks. That’s where the best returns are going to be.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>So the previously successful «buy the dip» strategy of simply buying more tech stocks after every decline no longer works?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The potency of dip-buying is in decay mode.</b>Global value is really starting to kick tech in the teeth, and when that happens, it wakes up what's called «real money». Keep in mind: There is fast money, mostly hedge funds which are nimble and make quick moves. In contrast, real money moves slowly. Those types of investors don’t make asset allocation decisions quickly. They base their decisions on committees and all kinds of meetings. As a result, tectonic plates are shifting beneath our feet. We’ve seen tremors after tremors where value is starting to crush growth, and now the earthquake is coming. At Bear Traps, we have a Bloomberg chat with 650 institutional investors, and I can tell just by these conversations, that the real money is starting to move.\n <b>And when the real money moves, that’s when the big quake happens.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What kind of dislocations will this cause?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Tech will probably be down 30 to 40% sometime between now and the end of October.</b>Today, the market cap of the Nasdaq 100 is close to $12 trillion, but most large-cap tech stocks are unchanged since July last year, while commodity and value-related equities are up 20 to 50%. In the US, if you talk to a hundred high-net-worth families, every one of those families owns Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon. But look what’s happening: Amazon’s stock is flat since the 4th of July 2020. That's $1.5 trillion of dead money. Last Friday, Amazon failed at the 200-day moving average again.\n <b>This is like Mike Tyson getting defeated by Buster Douglas, one of the greatest upsets in sports history. This psychology is moving through the market, pushing the capital migration process into value and commodity plays.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>However, investments in commodities are mostly not compliant with the trend towards ESG standards; especially when it comes to CO2 emissions.</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The best ESG trade on the board is nuclear power. The largest uranium company in the US is Cameco with a $7 market cap.</b>Think about that relative to Elon Musk’s net worth! I support the Green New Deal, but this needs time, because solar and wind are still too far away to produce the amount of energy needed around the world, especially in India and China. The only way to meet that demand is through nuclear power. Uranium is coming out of a ten-year bear market, and it’s going into a massive new bull market. All the contracts between power plants and uranium producers are going to be adjusted. That’s why we like the URA ETF which owns companies like Cameco. I see some of these companies as six baggers: 500% upside potential and 30 to 40% downside risk, because uranium is still a risky commodity.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>In our&nbsp;last conversation, you recommended investments in the energy sector. Since then, names such as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil have advanced 25 to 60%. What do you advise investors to do now?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>For now, we’ve cut our energy book:</b>We’ve sold half of our shares in Chevron, and we’ve sold two thirds of our positions in Exxon Mobil and in the XLE ETF. What happens when you get into the fourth, fifth and sixth innings of a commodity cycle, tertiary sectors like metallurgical coal become more attractive. Sure, met coal, also known as coking coal, is not ESG friendly, but there is no way around it for steel production and hence the construction of skyscrapers, bridges and things like that. So coming into this infrastructure boom all around the world, coal has plenty of upside. That’s why we own names like Arch Resources and Peabody Energy. They’re low-leveraged, and really cheap, once again, on a risk/reward basis.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What are the biggest dangers to watch out for in the coming weeks and months?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>One spot to watch are all these forbearance deals in commercial real estate.</b>When we come out of Covid and the vaccines and the stimulus money are juicing through the economy, the market will be forcing the release of the forbearance on a lot of these loans. So if people don’t come back fast enough to the cities, these commercial real estate loans are going to get reset. This would mean some big defaults, and the banks own a lot of these loans. Also, a lot of leveraged loans are really rich. And then, there is potentially a fiscal cliff:\n <b>The sustainability of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package isn’t that great because a lot of it is just transfer payments replacing lost income for people staying at home. That’s why the US needs a second stimulus bill. If we don’t get a second bill, we are going to have a problem in about a year from now.</b>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Larry McDonald Warns \"The Big [Market] Quake Is Coming\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarry McDonald Warns \"The Big [Market] Quake Is Coming\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/larry-mcdonald-warns-big-market-quake-coming><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech stocks are under pressure. Accordingly, tensions are high when the Federal Reserve decides on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/larry-mcdonald-warns-big-market-quake-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/larry-mcdonald-warns-big-market-quake-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121564086","content_text":"The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech stocks are under pressure. Accordingly, tensions are high when the Federal Reserve decides on the future course of its monetary policy this Wednesday.\n«The Fed has its back against the wall,»says Larry McDonald during a conversation via Zoom. The internationally renowned macro strategist and former senior trader at Lehman Brothers warns that the Federal Reserve has little time to mitigate the explosive situation in the bond and currency markets. Otherwise, he says, the global economy is at risk of another crisis.\nSince last spring, the founder of the independent investment advisor The Bear Traps Report has been recommending investments in the commodity sector, where he believes a new super cycle has begun. He reiterated his recommendation during his last conversation with The Market in late 2020. Today, his call for a big reflation trade has become the consensus on Wall Street.\nIn this new interview with The Market/NZZ, which has been edited and condensed for clarity, Larry McDonald tells why he expects the Federal Reserve to resort to yield curve control fairly soon and what that will mean for gold and silver. He also explains why the rotation into commodities and value stocks is only just beginning and where he currently sees the best opportunities for investments.\nAfter the turmoil of the past few weeks, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. What can investors expect from Wednesday's Fed meeting?\n\nWe’re at a point where the market is moving way ahead of the Federal Reserve.The Fed is on «outcome-based guidance», but the beast, that serpent in the market, wants more than that. Basically, the market is saying: «The US economy is going to grow 6 or 7% this year, and that will force you to taper in Q3 or Q4.» As investors are pricing in a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases, financial conditions are tightening; especially in emerging markets, where spreads on credit default swaps are rising. So far, financial conditions are nowhere near extremely dangerous levels. But the problem is everybody thinks we’re in a similar situation as back in 2018.\n\nWhat do you mean by that?\n\n Once again, the Fed is playing «Tough Guy»: The market demands a policy pivot, but the Fed is trying to hold on to its path, essentially signaling to investors: «No way, relax». We had a similar set-up in 2013, 2016 and 2018. These were the three most significant monetary policy shifts where market pressures broke the Fed's desired policy path.\n The problem is that back then the Fed had far more rope to play Tough Guy since the economy was stronger. In 2018 for instance, the US economy was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. In contrast, today’s employment-to-population ratio is 3.5 percentage points below January 2020 levels. This means 13 million Americans are outside the labor force. To get back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy has to create more than 540,000 jobs a month for two years.\n\nSo what does this mean for this week's Fed meeting?\n\nThe Fed is planet earth’s central bank. Every time they tried to play Tough Guy, they’ve blown up the global economy.This time, the Fed's Tough Guy window is much smaller. In 2018 or 2013 that window was nine to ten months. Now, it’s like two months because the economy is so weak. If they let financial conditions tighten further, they risk a major default cycle.\n The negative multiplier effect of a stronger dollar is much higher to the world economy than the Fed anticipates. They can't afford to let the dollar rip higher, because there is so much dollar denominated debt in the world, so much trade tied to the Greenback. If they blow that up, it will just blow back to the US and force the Fed into a policy shift anyway. It’s like with an oil change at the car repair shop: You can pay now or you can pay later. That’s why the Fed has to pay now.\n\nWhy?\n\nThe Fed’s back is against the wall, all points to proactive action on March 17.They must suppress taper fears and cut these risks off, or else they blow up the global economy for the 4th time since 2013. We’re hearing that they’re already getting incoming calls from emerging market central banks right now. If Fed Chairman Jay Powell plays Tough Guy by staying with the current path, without offering further assurances of deeper, more sustainable accommodation, the beast inside the market will keep pushing him until he breaks. We will see a repeat of Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, where the Fed was forced into an utterly embarrassing pivot. One of those is enough for Powell’s legacy, he doesn’t want two.\n\nWhat kind of measures can be expected?\n\nEventually, we will get the taper, but the overwhelming point is other weapons have to come first.A Federal Reserve offering insufficient accommodation places markets in the crosshairs of a risk-off event. The first thing they will try to do is give some hard data points. For example, the US economy has to create 10 million jobs for the Fed to do anything on the balance sheet. Another way they can get out is calendar guidance, but that’s a more sophisticated weaponry. Bottom line, they should just say: «From now until the end of the year QE will continue at $120 billion a month, and we want PCE-inflation to get to between 2 and 2.5% and stay there for 24 months.» With that in place,\n all they have to do is open the door two or three inches for yield curve control, and they can contain the dollar.\n\nThe last time the Federal Reserve used yield curve control was during the time of World War II. Why would it resort to such a radical measure?\n\nHere’s the dirty little secret: Too many Treasury bonds are for sale.There aren’t enough buyers, and that will force the Fed to step in. More than $3.6 trillion of US government paper was issued in 2020 versus $2.9 trillion in the prior year. With the new $1.9 trillion fiscal package coming from Washington, issuance in 2021 is slated to rise to $4 trillion. That’s a lot more than the Fed’s Treasury purchases through QE, so the spread between QE and debt issuance gets much wider. Washington is doing so much fiscal stimulus, I’m confident that this is going to force the Fed into yield curve control by September. If that’s the case, it will pressure the dollar lower and put commodities, value stocks, global cyclicals, materials and emerging markets into rotation overdrive.\n\nHow come?\n\nYield curve control deployment is the tactical nuclear weaponry.If the Fed throws out yield curve control just as a threat, it will suppress Treasury rates and real yields will go much more negative. Over the last couple of months, the issuance has overpowered inflation expectations. Think of it as a car race: Treasury issuances were driving up yields faster than inflation expectations rose. But if the Fed starts to acknowledge that they are going to bring out new weapons like calendar guidance and yield curve control, then they’re suppressing nominal yields. So if inflation expectations continue to rise, then real yields go big negative – and that’s when gold and silver will take off. I think silver can double from here until early next year. Gold could be up 50%.\n\nHow can investors best position themselves in this environment?\n\n In terms of emerging markets, we’re\n long Chile and Brazil.In Asia, South Korea looks attractive. We also like the KWEB ETF which consists of the big Chinese tech stocks. In the commodity space, we have a position in the XME ETF which owns mainly\n copper and steel names.One of the best companies we own is Teck Resources. This stock is almost like a commodity mutual fund, because the company has exposure to copper, nickel and even energy. Another favorite is Mosaic because in a commodity cycle where you have weather problems around the world,\n agricultural plays are a good bet.\n\nWhat about precious metals?\n\nWhen it comes to precious metals, we love silver minerslike Hecla Mining. When the Fed eases its policy, the silver miners will outperform the underlying metal, and they will outperform gold because there is more leverage there.\n\nThe gold price is down more than 15% since its all-time high in August. What’s the problem?\n\nEveryone thinks it’s 2013, so taper fears are sky high for gold. But the Fed cannot repeat its mistakes.They must cap yields if they want to preserve the global economic recovery. Thus, the convexity with gold is very attractive. Every leg lower in real yields will act like a slingshot higher for gold. That’s why we love Newmont. The stock trades at 6x EBITDA with a 4% dividend yield which gives you some downside protection. And remember: The 2011-2016 commodity bust has made the balance sheet of these high quality gold mining companies a lot stronger.\n\nPresident Joe Biden has just signed off on a $1.9 trillion economic program. What are the chances of a second stimulus bill, aimed at infrastructure?\n\n It’s important to note that\n a second fiscal deal for 2021 is not a slam dunk.To pass the present $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, the Democrats used reconciliation. It’s a very special trick in US politics, because with reconciliation you don’t need 60 votes to pass a bill in the Senate. All you need is 50 votes. Yet, reconciliation has to be tied to a budget year. This means the next time the Democrats can use it is probably in the fourth quarter, late November or December, and tie it to the following year's budget. So the only way to do an infrastructure bill in the next six months is with a traditional piece of legislation.\n\nIs that even possible, given how wide the rift between Republicans and Democrats has opened in recent years?\n\n For that you need essentially ten Republicans. Right now, the centrists on the Hill, people like Mitt Romney on the Republican side or Joe Manchin on the Democrat side, are the most powerful people in Washington. They want to do an infrastructure program, but they want to finance it with tax revenue. They don’t believe in things like Modern Monetary Theory where the Fed is financing the deficit.\n So you are going to need a tax hike. And in this regard, we’re hearing they could go after some type of flat tax on the FAANGs, the big technology companies.\n\nWhat does this mean for Apple, Google, Facebook and other tech heavyweights?\n\n Keep in mind, we’re in a populist revolution:\n The risk of inequality leading to social unrest is high, and that puts pressure on politicians to pass bills to tax the rich.But a wealth tax is extremely complicated, it would take years. The simplest way to do something in terms of taxes is to tax larger companies. In the eighties, the top 100 companies in the US maintained about 45 to 50% of total profits. Today, the largest 20 companies command about 85 to 90%. In addition to that, close to 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap is related to tech. So tech is the low hanging fruit for the populists in Congress to go after.\n\nOne more reason why tech stocks remain under pressure?\n\n We run a bunch of models. For example, we look at Berkshire Hathaway’s share price versus the Nasdaq 100 or the Dow Jones Industrial versus the Nasdaq. March 8th was the second time in 2021 that the Nasdaq closed down 2% with the Dow closing higher.\n We haven’t seen this type of data since the dotcom crash. It’s a very rare event which historically coincides with a longer-term rotation out of technology stocks. That’s a very encouraging signal for value stocks.In this regard, we like the EWU ETF. It’s a wonderful basket of stocks because it’s full of financials and world class names like BP, Rio Tinto or Glencore. Officially, it’s called the United Kingdom ETF, but it’s more like a global value ETF.\n\nDoes this mean that the rotation towards cyclical stocks has only just begun?\n\nMany investors around the world are long a portfolio of stocks that was designed for the deflationary environment of the previous decade.The decade ahead of us - with all what’s ahead in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus, populism, regulation and taxes - will push investors toward more globally value related stocks. That’s where the best returns are going to be.\n\nSo the previously successful «buy the dip» strategy of simply buying more tech stocks after every decline no longer works?\n\nThe potency of dip-buying is in decay mode.Global value is really starting to kick tech in the teeth, and when that happens, it wakes up what's called «real money». Keep in mind: There is fast money, mostly hedge funds which are nimble and make quick moves. In contrast, real money moves slowly. Those types of investors don’t make asset allocation decisions quickly. They base their decisions on committees and all kinds of meetings. As a result, tectonic plates are shifting beneath our feet. We’ve seen tremors after tremors where value is starting to crush growth, and now the earthquake is coming. At Bear Traps, we have a Bloomberg chat with 650 institutional investors, and I can tell just by these conversations, that the real money is starting to move.\n And when the real money moves, that’s when the big quake happens.\n\nWhat kind of dislocations will this cause?\n\nTech will probably be down 30 to 40% sometime between now and the end of October.Today, the market cap of the Nasdaq 100 is close to $12 trillion, but most large-cap tech stocks are unchanged since July last year, while commodity and value-related equities are up 20 to 50%. In the US, if you talk to a hundred high-net-worth families, every one of those families owns Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon. But look what’s happening: Amazon’s stock is flat since the 4th of July 2020. That's $1.5 trillion of dead money. Last Friday, Amazon failed at the 200-day moving average again.\n This is like Mike Tyson getting defeated by Buster Douglas, one of the greatest upsets in sports history. This psychology is moving through the market, pushing the capital migration process into value and commodity plays.\n\nHowever, investments in commodities are mostly not compliant with the trend towards ESG standards; especially when it comes to CO2 emissions.\n\nThe best ESG trade on the board is nuclear power. The largest uranium company in the US is Cameco with a $7 market cap.Think about that relative to Elon Musk’s net worth! I support the Green New Deal, but this needs time, because solar and wind are still too far away to produce the amount of energy needed around the world, especially in India and China. The only way to meet that demand is through nuclear power. Uranium is coming out of a ten-year bear market, and it’s going into a massive new bull market. All the contracts between power plants and uranium producers are going to be adjusted. That’s why we like the URA ETF which owns companies like Cameco. I see some of these companies as six baggers: 500% upside potential and 30 to 40% downside risk, because uranium is still a risky commodity.\n\nIn our last conversation, you recommended investments in the energy sector. Since then, names such as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil have advanced 25 to 60%. What do you advise investors to do now?\n\nFor now, we’ve cut our energy book:We’ve sold half of our shares in Chevron, and we’ve sold two thirds of our positions in Exxon Mobil and in the XLE ETF. What happens when you get into the fourth, fifth and sixth innings of a commodity cycle, tertiary sectors like metallurgical coal become more attractive. Sure, met coal, also known as coking coal, is not ESG friendly, but there is no way around it for steel production and hence the construction of skyscrapers, bridges and things like that. So coming into this infrastructure boom all around the world, coal has plenty of upside. That’s why we own names like Arch Resources and Peabody Energy. They’re low-leveraged, and really cheap, once again, on a risk/reward basis.\n\nWhat are the biggest dangers to watch out for in the coming weeks and months?\n\nOne spot to watch are all these forbearance deals in commercial real estate.When we come out of Covid and the vaccines and the stimulus money are juicing through the economy, the market will be forcing the release of the forbearance on a lot of these loans. So if people don’t come back fast enough to the cities, these commercial real estate loans are going to get reset. This would mean some big defaults, and the banks own a lot of these loans. Also, a lot of leveraged loans are really rich. And then, there is potentially a fiscal cliff:\n The sustainability of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package isn’t that great because a lot of it is just transfer payments replacing lost income for people staying at home. That’s why the US needs a second stimulus bill. If we don’t get a second bill, we are going to have a problem in about a year from now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":166246367,"gmtCreate":1624014430459,"gmtModify":1703826570316,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166246367","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351177941,"gmtCreate":1616579934583,"gmtModify":1704795920637,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351177941","repostId":"1169987647","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169987647","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616579724,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169987647?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 17:55","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Xiaomi fourth-quarter profit rises 36.7% on handset demand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169987647","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Xiaomi Corp reported a 36.7% rise in fourth-quarter net profit on Wednesday, as demand for its handsets increased.Xiaomi group: in the fourth quarter of 2020, the revenue is 70.46 billion yuan, the market is expected to be 75.226 billion yuan, compared with 56.47 billion yuan in the same period last year.In the fourth quarter of 2020, Xiaomi's smartphone revenue reached 42.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. In this quarter, our global smartphone shipments were 42.3 million, up 29.","content":"<p>Xiaomi Corp reported a 36.7% rise in fourth-quarter net profit on Wednesday, as demand for its handsets increased.</p><p>Xiaomi group: in the fourth quarter of 2020, the revenue is 70.46 billion yuan, the market is expected to be 75.226 billion yuan, compared with 56.47 billion yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of 2020, Xiaomi's smartphone revenue reached 42.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. In this quarter, our global smartphone shipments were 42.3 million, up 29.7% year on year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd31730f211f3f6f258dc539ebfcc31\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"845\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The following content comes from the original financial report：</p><p>1. Overall performance</p><p>In 2020, despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and an uncertain global economic environment, we remained focused on executing our business strategies and achieved solid growth for the year. Total revenue for the year reached RMB245.9 billion, representing an increase of 19.4% year-over-year; adjusted net profit for the year was RMB13.0 billion, representing an increase of 12.8% year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our revenue amounted to RMB70.5 billion, representing an increase of 24.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit was RMB3.2 billion, representing an increase of 36.7% year-over-year.</p><p>Our commitment to the core strategy of “Smartphone × AIoT” continued to underpin our solid performance. In 2020, our global smartphone shipments increased by 17.5% yearover-year to 146.4 million units. According to Canalys, Xiaomi’s smartphone shipments increased by over 24 million units in 2020, the top gainer among all smartphone companies globally. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we maintained a top three position in global smartphone shipments with a market share of 12.1% and the highest year-over-year growth among the top five smartphone companies globally, according to Canalys. Driven by the strong growth of smartphone shipments, the global monthly active users (“MAU”) of MIUI reached 396.3 million in December 2020, an increase of 28.0% year-over-year. At the same time, our global AIoT platform continues to grow. As of December 31, 2020, the number of connected IoT devices (excluding smartphones and laptops) on our AIoT platform reached 324.8 million, representing an increase of 38.0% year-over-year. Our AI assistant (“ 小愛同學 ”) had 86.7 million MAU in December 2020, representing a year-over-year increase of 43.5%.</p><p>Our smartphone business grew significantly and we increased our market share in mainland China. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments in the mainland China market grew 51.9% year-over-year, representing the highest growth rate among the top five smartphone companies. Our smartphone shipment market share in mainland China rose from 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 14.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Canalys.</p><p>We further solidified our position in the premium smartphone market. In 2020, we sold approximately 10 million premium smartphones globally with retail prices at or above RMB3,000 in mainland China and EUR300, or equivalent, in overseas markets. In December 2020, we unveiled our premium flagship Mi 11, which was well received by the market, with sales surpassing one million units in the first 21 days following its release.</p><p>As we continue to expand our overseas business, revenue from overseas markets amounted to RMB122.4 billion in 2020, representing a year-over-year increase of 34.1% and accounting for 49.8% of our total revenue. As of December 31, 2020, our products have been sold in more than 100 markets globally. According to Canalys, we ranked among the top five vendors in terms of smartphone shipments in 54 countries and regions globally in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>In 2020, our global business recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and maintained steady growth. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, Xiaomi collaborated closely with upstream and downstream business partners to accelerate the resumption of work and production. During the pandemic, our products and services helped people enrich their lives and stay connected, and demand for our products remained healthy. With the easing of lockdown restrictions in major markets during the second half of 2020, our business rebounded. We continued to execute our “Smartphone × AIoT” strategy, and our solid performance for the year demonstrates the resilience and competitiveness of our business model.</p><p>2. Smartphones</p><p>In 2020, our smartphone business maintained solid growth momentum. Smartphone revenue amounted to RMB152.2 billion for the year, representing an increase of 24.6% year-overyear. In 2020, our global smartphone shipments totaled 146.4 million units, an increase of 17.5% year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone revenue amounted to RMB42.6 billion, representing an increase of 38.4% year-over-year. In this quarter, our global smartphone shipments reached 42.3 million units, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.7%. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we continued to rank 3rd globally in terms of smartphone shipments with a market share of 12.1%, and achieved the highest yearover-year growth among the top five smartphone companies globally. In 2020, our smartphone business grew significantly in mainland China. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments in mainland China market increased by 51.9% year-over-year, achieving the highest year-over-year growth among the top five smartphone companies. Our mainland China market share climbed to 14.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019.</p><p>We continued to execute our dual-brand strategy. In 2020, we sold approximately 10 million premium smartphones globally with retail prices at or above RMB3,000 in mainland China and EUR300, or equivalent, in overseas markets. In December 2020, we unveiled Mi 11 in mainland China, the world’s first smartphone to feature the Snapdragon 888 chipset. With prices starting from RMB3,999, Mi 11’s debut achieved widespread popularity as shipments surpassed 1 million units in the first 21 days following its release. In the first month after its release, over 50% of Mi 11’s users were new Xiaomi users (based on internal data tracing back to November 1, 2017). Due to increased sales of our premium smartphones, our smartphone ASP increased by 6.1% to RMB1,040 in 2020 and by 6.8% to RMB1,009 in the fourth quarter of 2020, both on a year-over-year basis.</p><p>Our Redmi brand remained committed to making advanced technology accessible to the mass market. In February 2021, we unveiled the Redmi K40 series, of which Redmi K40 Pro and Redmi K40 Pro+ are both equipped with the Snapdragon 888 chipset. These smartphones offer compelling price-to-performance ratio at prices starting from RMB1,999. Furthermore, Redmi Note 9 series has been well received by the market and sold more than 30 million units globally between its debut on March 12, 2020 and December 31, 2020.</p><p>We continued to build our distribution channels in mainland China. In the online channel, we further strengthened our market position. According to third-party data, our online smartphone market share in mainland China in terms of shipments increased from 18.5% in the first quarter of 2020 to 29.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. During the Singles’ Day and the Double 12 Shopping Festivals in 2020, Xiaomi and Redmi brand smartphones together ranked 1st in sales volume among Android smartphones on Tmall.com, JD.com, and Suning.com. In the offline retail channel, we significantly increased the number of retail stores while emphasizing operating efficiency.</p><p>3. Overseas markets</p><p>In 2020, our revenue from overseas markets increased 34.1% year-over-year to RMB122.4 billion, accounting for 49.8% of our total revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our revenue from overseas markets rose 27.6% to RMB33.8 billion, accounting for 47.9% of our total revenue. As of December 31, 2020, our products have been sold in a more than 100 countries and regions around the world. According to Canalys, we ranked among the top five vendors in terms of smartphone shipments in 54 countries and regions globally in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>We continued to gain strong momentum in major markets around the world. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we ranked top 3 for the 3rd consecutive quarter in Europe in terms of smartphone shipments with a market share of 15.3%. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we ranked No. 1 in Central and Eastern Europe for the first time as our smartphone shipments increased 17.5% year-over-year to reach 24.7% market share. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we retained top 3 position in Western Europe as our smartphone shipments increased 57.3% year-over-year, with 10.9% market share. In particular, our smartphone shipments in Spain ranked No.1 for the 4th consecutive quarter with 27.0% market share. Additionally, our smartphone shipments increased by 86.2% in France, by 61.6% in Italy and by 139.8% in Germany, all on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Canalys.</p><p>In India, we ranked No.1 for the 13th consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2020 in terms of smartphone shipments, with a market share of 27.4%, according to Canalys. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we also experienced meaningful growth in other emerging markets. According to Canalys, our smartphone shipments ranked 4th in Latin America in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a year-over-year growth of 215.4%. Our market share in the region increased to 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 2.7% in the same period of 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments also attained a top 4 position in the Middle East and Africa.</p><p>In 2020, we further strengthened our channel capabilities in overseas markets. In 2020, we sold more than 16.0 million smartphones via online channels in overseas markets excluding India, an increase of over 90.0% year-over-year. In addition, we shipped more than 9 million smartphones through carrier channels in overseas markets excluding India, an increase of over 380.0% year-over-year. According to Canalys, our smartphone market share in Western Europe carrier channels increased to 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 4.6% in the third quarter of 2020 and from 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomi fourth-quarter profit rises 36.7% on handset demand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi fourth-quarter profit rises 36.7% on handset demand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-24 17:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xiaomi Corp reported a 36.7% rise in fourth-quarter net profit on Wednesday, as demand for its handsets increased.</p><p>Xiaomi group: in the fourth quarter of 2020, the revenue is 70.46 billion yuan, the market is expected to be 75.226 billion yuan, compared with 56.47 billion yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of 2020, Xiaomi's smartphone revenue reached 42.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. In this quarter, our global smartphone shipments were 42.3 million, up 29.7% year on year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd31730f211f3f6f258dc539ebfcc31\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"845\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The following content comes from the original financial report：</p><p>1. Overall performance</p><p>In 2020, despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and an uncertain global economic environment, we remained focused on executing our business strategies and achieved solid growth for the year. Total revenue for the year reached RMB245.9 billion, representing an increase of 19.4% year-over-year; adjusted net profit for the year was RMB13.0 billion, representing an increase of 12.8% year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our revenue amounted to RMB70.5 billion, representing an increase of 24.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit was RMB3.2 billion, representing an increase of 36.7% year-over-year.</p><p>Our commitment to the core strategy of “Smartphone × AIoT” continued to underpin our solid performance. In 2020, our global smartphone shipments increased by 17.5% yearover-year to 146.4 million units. According to Canalys, Xiaomi’s smartphone shipments increased by over 24 million units in 2020, the top gainer among all smartphone companies globally. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we maintained a top three position in global smartphone shipments with a market share of 12.1% and the highest year-over-year growth among the top five smartphone companies globally, according to Canalys. Driven by the strong growth of smartphone shipments, the global monthly active users (“MAU”) of MIUI reached 396.3 million in December 2020, an increase of 28.0% year-over-year. At the same time, our global AIoT platform continues to grow. As of December 31, 2020, the number of connected IoT devices (excluding smartphones and laptops) on our AIoT platform reached 324.8 million, representing an increase of 38.0% year-over-year. Our AI assistant (“ 小愛同學 ”) had 86.7 million MAU in December 2020, representing a year-over-year increase of 43.5%.</p><p>Our smartphone business grew significantly and we increased our market share in mainland China. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments in the mainland China market grew 51.9% year-over-year, representing the highest growth rate among the top five smartphone companies. Our smartphone shipment market share in mainland China rose from 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 14.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Canalys.</p><p>We further solidified our position in the premium smartphone market. In 2020, we sold approximately 10 million premium smartphones globally with retail prices at or above RMB3,000 in mainland China and EUR300, or equivalent, in overseas markets. In December 2020, we unveiled our premium flagship Mi 11, which was well received by the market, with sales surpassing one million units in the first 21 days following its release.</p><p>As we continue to expand our overseas business, revenue from overseas markets amounted to RMB122.4 billion in 2020, representing a year-over-year increase of 34.1% and accounting for 49.8% of our total revenue. As of December 31, 2020, our products have been sold in more than 100 markets globally. According to Canalys, we ranked among the top five vendors in terms of smartphone shipments in 54 countries and regions globally in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>In 2020, our global business recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and maintained steady growth. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, Xiaomi collaborated closely with upstream and downstream business partners to accelerate the resumption of work and production. During the pandemic, our products and services helped people enrich their lives and stay connected, and demand for our products remained healthy. With the easing of lockdown restrictions in major markets during the second half of 2020, our business rebounded. We continued to execute our “Smartphone × AIoT” strategy, and our solid performance for the year demonstrates the resilience and competitiveness of our business model.</p><p>2. Smartphones</p><p>In 2020, our smartphone business maintained solid growth momentum. Smartphone revenue amounted to RMB152.2 billion for the year, representing an increase of 24.6% year-overyear. In 2020, our global smartphone shipments totaled 146.4 million units, an increase of 17.5% year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone revenue amounted to RMB42.6 billion, representing an increase of 38.4% year-over-year. In this quarter, our global smartphone shipments reached 42.3 million units, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.7%. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we continued to rank 3rd globally in terms of smartphone shipments with a market share of 12.1%, and achieved the highest yearover-year growth among the top five smartphone companies globally. In 2020, our smartphone business grew significantly in mainland China. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments in mainland China market increased by 51.9% year-over-year, achieving the highest year-over-year growth among the top five smartphone companies. Our mainland China market share climbed to 14.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019.</p><p>We continued to execute our dual-brand strategy. In 2020, we sold approximately 10 million premium smartphones globally with retail prices at or above RMB3,000 in mainland China and EUR300, or equivalent, in overseas markets. In December 2020, we unveiled Mi 11 in mainland China, the world’s first smartphone to feature the Snapdragon 888 chipset. With prices starting from RMB3,999, Mi 11’s debut achieved widespread popularity as shipments surpassed 1 million units in the first 21 days following its release. In the first month after its release, over 50% of Mi 11’s users were new Xiaomi users (based on internal data tracing back to November 1, 2017). Due to increased sales of our premium smartphones, our smartphone ASP increased by 6.1% to RMB1,040 in 2020 and by 6.8% to RMB1,009 in the fourth quarter of 2020, both on a year-over-year basis.</p><p>Our Redmi brand remained committed to making advanced technology accessible to the mass market. In February 2021, we unveiled the Redmi K40 series, of which Redmi K40 Pro and Redmi K40 Pro+ are both equipped with the Snapdragon 888 chipset. These smartphones offer compelling price-to-performance ratio at prices starting from RMB1,999. Furthermore, Redmi Note 9 series has been well received by the market and sold more than 30 million units globally between its debut on March 12, 2020 and December 31, 2020.</p><p>We continued to build our distribution channels in mainland China. In the online channel, we further strengthened our market position. According to third-party data, our online smartphone market share in mainland China in terms of shipments increased from 18.5% in the first quarter of 2020 to 29.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. During the Singles’ Day and the Double 12 Shopping Festivals in 2020, Xiaomi and Redmi brand smartphones together ranked 1st in sales volume among Android smartphones on Tmall.com, JD.com, and Suning.com. In the offline retail channel, we significantly increased the number of retail stores while emphasizing operating efficiency.</p><p>3. Overseas markets</p><p>In 2020, our revenue from overseas markets increased 34.1% year-over-year to RMB122.4 billion, accounting for 49.8% of our total revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our revenue from overseas markets rose 27.6% to RMB33.8 billion, accounting for 47.9% of our total revenue. As of December 31, 2020, our products have been sold in a more than 100 countries and regions around the world. According to Canalys, we ranked among the top five vendors in terms of smartphone shipments in 54 countries and regions globally in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>We continued to gain strong momentum in major markets around the world. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we ranked top 3 for the 3rd consecutive quarter in Europe in terms of smartphone shipments with a market share of 15.3%. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we ranked No. 1 in Central and Eastern Europe for the first time as our smartphone shipments increased 17.5% year-over-year to reach 24.7% market share. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we retained top 3 position in Western Europe as our smartphone shipments increased 57.3% year-over-year, with 10.9% market share. In particular, our smartphone shipments in Spain ranked No.1 for the 4th consecutive quarter with 27.0% market share. Additionally, our smartphone shipments increased by 86.2% in France, by 61.6% in Italy and by 139.8% in Germany, all on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Canalys.</p><p>In India, we ranked No.1 for the 13th consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2020 in terms of smartphone shipments, with a market share of 27.4%, according to Canalys. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we also experienced meaningful growth in other emerging markets. According to Canalys, our smartphone shipments ranked 4th in Latin America in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a year-over-year growth of 215.4%. Our market share in the region increased to 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 2.7% in the same period of 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments also attained a top 4 position in the Middle East and Africa.</p><p>In 2020, we further strengthened our channel capabilities in overseas markets. In 2020, we sold more than 16.0 million smartphones via online channels in overseas markets excluding India, an increase of over 90.0% year-over-year. In addition, we shipped more than 9 million smartphones through carrier channels in overseas markets excluding India, an increase of over 380.0% year-over-year. According to Canalys, our smartphone market share in Western Europe carrier channels increased to 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 4.6% in the third quarter of 2020 and from 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169987647","content_text":"Xiaomi Corp reported a 36.7% rise in fourth-quarter net profit on Wednesday, as demand for its handsets increased.Xiaomi group: in the fourth quarter of 2020, the revenue is 70.46 billion yuan, the market is expected to be 75.226 billion yuan, compared with 56.47 billion yuan in the same period last year.In the fourth quarter of 2020, Xiaomi's smartphone revenue reached 42.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. In this quarter, our global smartphone shipments were 42.3 million, up 29.7% year on year.The following content comes from the original financial report：1. Overall performanceIn 2020, despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and an uncertain global economic environment, we remained focused on executing our business strategies and achieved solid growth for the year. Total revenue for the year reached RMB245.9 billion, representing an increase of 19.4% year-over-year; adjusted net profit for the year was RMB13.0 billion, representing an increase of 12.8% year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our revenue amounted to RMB70.5 billion, representing an increase of 24.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit was RMB3.2 billion, representing an increase of 36.7% year-over-year.Our commitment to the core strategy of “Smartphone × AIoT” continued to underpin our solid performance. In 2020, our global smartphone shipments increased by 17.5% yearover-year to 146.4 million units. According to Canalys, Xiaomi’s smartphone shipments increased by over 24 million units in 2020, the top gainer among all smartphone companies globally. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we maintained a top three position in global smartphone shipments with a market share of 12.1% and the highest year-over-year growth among the top five smartphone companies globally, according to Canalys. Driven by the strong growth of smartphone shipments, the global monthly active users (“MAU”) of MIUI reached 396.3 million in December 2020, an increase of 28.0% year-over-year. At the same time, our global AIoT platform continues to grow. As of December 31, 2020, the number of connected IoT devices (excluding smartphones and laptops) on our AIoT platform reached 324.8 million, representing an increase of 38.0% year-over-year. Our AI assistant (“ 小愛同學 ”) had 86.7 million MAU in December 2020, representing a year-over-year increase of 43.5%.Our smartphone business grew significantly and we increased our market share in mainland China. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments in the mainland China market grew 51.9% year-over-year, representing the highest growth rate among the top five smartphone companies. Our smartphone shipment market share in mainland China rose from 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 14.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Canalys.We further solidified our position in the premium smartphone market. In 2020, we sold approximately 10 million premium smartphones globally with retail prices at or above RMB3,000 in mainland China and EUR300, or equivalent, in overseas markets. In December 2020, we unveiled our premium flagship Mi 11, which was well received by the market, with sales surpassing one million units in the first 21 days following its release.As we continue to expand our overseas business, revenue from overseas markets amounted to RMB122.4 billion in 2020, representing a year-over-year increase of 34.1% and accounting for 49.8% of our total revenue. As of December 31, 2020, our products have been sold in more than 100 markets globally. According to Canalys, we ranked among the top five vendors in terms of smartphone shipments in 54 countries and regions globally in the fourth quarter of 2020.In 2020, our global business recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and maintained steady growth. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, Xiaomi collaborated closely with upstream and downstream business partners to accelerate the resumption of work and production. During the pandemic, our products and services helped people enrich their lives and stay connected, and demand for our products remained healthy. With the easing of lockdown restrictions in major markets during the second half of 2020, our business rebounded. We continued to execute our “Smartphone × AIoT” strategy, and our solid performance for the year demonstrates the resilience and competitiveness of our business model.2. SmartphonesIn 2020, our smartphone business maintained solid growth momentum. Smartphone revenue amounted to RMB152.2 billion for the year, representing an increase of 24.6% year-overyear. In 2020, our global smartphone shipments totaled 146.4 million units, an increase of 17.5% year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone revenue amounted to RMB42.6 billion, representing an increase of 38.4% year-over-year. In this quarter, our global smartphone shipments reached 42.3 million units, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.7%. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we continued to rank 3rd globally in terms of smartphone shipments with a market share of 12.1%, and achieved the highest yearover-year growth among the top five smartphone companies globally. In 2020, our smartphone business grew significantly in mainland China. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments in mainland China market increased by 51.9% year-over-year, achieving the highest year-over-year growth among the top five smartphone companies. Our mainland China market share climbed to 14.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019.We continued to execute our dual-brand strategy. In 2020, we sold approximately 10 million premium smartphones globally with retail prices at or above RMB3,000 in mainland China and EUR300, or equivalent, in overseas markets. In December 2020, we unveiled Mi 11 in mainland China, the world’s first smartphone to feature the Snapdragon 888 chipset. With prices starting from RMB3,999, Mi 11’s debut achieved widespread popularity as shipments surpassed 1 million units in the first 21 days following its release. In the first month after its release, over 50% of Mi 11’s users were new Xiaomi users (based on internal data tracing back to November 1, 2017). Due to increased sales of our premium smartphones, our smartphone ASP increased by 6.1% to RMB1,040 in 2020 and by 6.8% to RMB1,009 in the fourth quarter of 2020, both on a year-over-year basis.Our Redmi brand remained committed to making advanced technology accessible to the mass market. In February 2021, we unveiled the Redmi K40 series, of which Redmi K40 Pro and Redmi K40 Pro+ are both equipped with the Snapdragon 888 chipset. These smartphones offer compelling price-to-performance ratio at prices starting from RMB1,999. Furthermore, Redmi Note 9 series has been well received by the market and sold more than 30 million units globally between its debut on March 12, 2020 and December 31, 2020.We continued to build our distribution channels in mainland China. In the online channel, we further strengthened our market position. According to third-party data, our online smartphone market share in mainland China in terms of shipments increased from 18.5% in the first quarter of 2020 to 29.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. During the Singles’ Day and the Double 12 Shopping Festivals in 2020, Xiaomi and Redmi brand smartphones together ranked 1st in sales volume among Android smartphones on Tmall.com, JD.com, and Suning.com. In the offline retail channel, we significantly increased the number of retail stores while emphasizing operating efficiency.3. Overseas marketsIn 2020, our revenue from overseas markets increased 34.1% year-over-year to RMB122.4 billion, accounting for 49.8% of our total revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our revenue from overseas markets rose 27.6% to RMB33.8 billion, accounting for 47.9% of our total revenue. As of December 31, 2020, our products have been sold in a more than 100 countries and regions around the world. According to Canalys, we ranked among the top five vendors in terms of smartphone shipments in 54 countries and regions globally in the fourth quarter of 2020.We continued to gain strong momentum in major markets around the world. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we ranked top 3 for the 3rd consecutive quarter in Europe in terms of smartphone shipments with a market share of 15.3%. According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2020, we ranked No. 1 in Central and Eastern Europe for the first time as our smartphone shipments increased 17.5% year-over-year to reach 24.7% market share. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we retained top 3 position in Western Europe as our smartphone shipments increased 57.3% year-over-year, with 10.9% market share. In particular, our smartphone shipments in Spain ranked No.1 for the 4th consecutive quarter with 27.0% market share. Additionally, our smartphone shipments increased by 86.2% in France, by 61.6% in Italy and by 139.8% in Germany, all on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Canalys.In India, we ranked No.1 for the 13th consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2020 in terms of smartphone shipments, with a market share of 27.4%, according to Canalys. In the fourth quarter of 2020, we also experienced meaningful growth in other emerging markets. According to Canalys, our smartphone shipments ranked 4th in Latin America in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a year-over-year growth of 215.4%. Our market share in the region increased to 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 2.7% in the same period of 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, our smartphone shipments also attained a top 4 position in the Middle East and Africa.In 2020, we further strengthened our channel capabilities in overseas markets. In 2020, we sold more than 16.0 million smartphones via online channels in overseas markets excluding India, an increase of over 90.0% year-over-year. In addition, we shipped more than 9 million smartphones through carrier channels in overseas markets excluding India, an increase of over 380.0% year-over-year. According to Canalys, our smartphone market share in Western Europe carrier channels increased to 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 4.6% in the third quarter of 2020 and from 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169649031,"gmtCreate":1623834699623,"gmtModify":1703820869276,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169649031","repostId":"1126302775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126302775","pubTimestamp":1623833061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126302775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 16:44","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Chinese Clear Brace Maker More Than Doubles on Hong Kong Debut","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126302775","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chinese maker of clear orthodontic braces Angelalign Technology Inc. surged 132% on i","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chinese maker of clear orthodontic braces Angelalign Technology Inc. surged 132% on its Hong Kong debut on Wednesday after an initial public offering that was one of this year’s most popular in the city.</p>\n<p>Angelalign shares ended their first day of trading at HK$401, compared with their offering price of HK$173, which was already at the top of a marketed range. Its debut is the best in Hong Kong in months for IPOs raising over $100 million, since New Horizon Health Ltd.’s 215% rise in February, data compiled by Bloomberg show.</p>\n<p>Angelalign’s IPO attracted high levels of demand from both retail and institutional investors, signaling that appetite for share sales is ticking up again after a spate of mediocre debuts.</p>\n<p>Mom-and-pop buyers put in orders for 2,079 times the shares initially made available to them -- the second-highest subscription rate for an IPO in Hong Kong this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Angelalign was also the Asian financial hub’s most popular first share sale among funds this year, drawing orders for 114.7 times the shares on offer.</p>\n<p>Hong Kong’s IPO market has had a strong start to the year, as rallying stocks, ample liquidity and ultra-low interest rates fueled demand for new share offerings. That frenzy has since abated as investors have become more selective amid concerns about accelerating inflation and more volatile markets.</p>\n<p>Just eight companies have begun trading in the city this quarter, on track for the fewest since the second quarter of 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. However activity is starting to tick up again, with at least six companies currently gauging investor demand for their listings.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Clear Brace Maker More Than Doubles on Hong Kong Debut</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Clear Brace Maker More Than Doubles on Hong Kong Debut\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-clear-brace-maker-more-013644152.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chinese maker of clear orthodontic braces Angelalign Technology Inc. surged 132% on its Hong Kong debut on Wednesday after an initial public offering that was one of this year’s most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-clear-brace-maker-more-013644152.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"06699":"时代天使"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-clear-brace-maker-more-013644152.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126302775","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chinese maker of clear orthodontic braces Angelalign Technology Inc. surged 132% on its Hong Kong debut on Wednesday after an initial public offering that was one of this year’s most popular in the city.\nAngelalign shares ended their first day of trading at HK$401, compared with their offering price of HK$173, which was already at the top of a marketed range. Its debut is the best in Hong Kong in months for IPOs raising over $100 million, since New Horizon Health Ltd.’s 215% rise in February, data compiled by Bloomberg show.\nAngelalign’s IPO attracted high levels of demand from both retail and institutional investors, signaling that appetite for share sales is ticking up again after a spate of mediocre debuts.\nMom-and-pop buyers put in orders for 2,079 times the shares initially made available to them -- the second-highest subscription rate for an IPO in Hong Kong this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Angelalign was also the Asian financial hub’s most popular first share sale among funds this year, drawing orders for 114.7 times the shares on offer.\nHong Kong’s IPO market has had a strong start to the year, as rallying stocks, ample liquidity and ultra-low interest rates fueled demand for new share offerings. That frenzy has since abated as investors have become more selective amid concerns about accelerating inflation and more volatile markets.\nJust eight companies have begun trading in the city this quarter, on track for the fewest since the second quarter of 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. However activity is starting to tick up again, with at least six companies currently gauging investor demand for their listings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327928306,"gmtCreate":1616052647105,"gmtModify":1704790243601,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327928306","repostId":"2120518003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160316118,"gmtCreate":1623772172034,"gmtModify":1703819026950,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160316118","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160318702,"gmtCreate":1623772160106,"gmtModify":1703819026465,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160318702","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187337744","pubTimestamp":1623770439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187337744?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187337744","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","content":"<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p>\n<p>Let's look at some numbers.</p>\n<p>Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p>\n<p>GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p>\n<p>With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p>\n<p>Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p>\n<p><b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p>\n<p>In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p>\n<p><u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p>\n<p>Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187337744","content_text":"There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?\nLet's look at some numbers.\nMonthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -these are real scary when they're annualized.\nGDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.\nWith these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"all in.\"\nOvernight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.\nOn top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.\nIn my book, this economic situation calls for attention.\nIt's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.\nPerhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351800139,"gmtCreate":1616579995521,"gmtModify":1704795922758,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351800139","repostId":"1178385748","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327928699,"gmtCreate":1616052699111,"gmtModify":1704790244087,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327928699","repostId":"2120130261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120130261","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1616048501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120130261?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 14:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"U.N. body raises global economic growth forecast for 2021 to 4.7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120130261","media":"Reuters","summary":"GENEVA, March 18 (Reuters) - The global economy is set to grow by 4.7% this year thanks to a stronge","content":"<p>GENEVA, March 18 (Reuters) - The global economy is set to grow by 4.7% this year thanks to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the United States, a report by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Thursday, revising up its previous forecast of 4.3%.</p>\n<p>The upwards revision from its previous forecast made last September factors in an expected boost in U.S. consumer spending on the back of progress distributing COVID-19 vaccines and a vast stimulus package, the report said.</p>\n<p>\"The global recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to continue through 2021, albeit with a good deal of unevenness and unpredictability, reflecting epidemiological, policy and coordination uncertainties,\" the report said.</p>\n<p>Earlier this month, the OECD also revised higher its growth forecast for this year to 5.6 % from 4.2 %.</p>\n<p>However, the 22-page UNCTAD report called 'Out of the frying pan...into the fire?' said COVID-19 will have lasting economic consequences that will require continued government support. It said the main risk to the global outlook is a \"misguided return to austerity\".</p>\n<p>The report estimates that last year there was a 3.9 % drop in output as the spread of the coronavirus sparked lockdowns across the world.</p>\n<p>It called the impact \"exorbitant\", describing the \"destruction of income on an unprecedented scale\" with people in developing countries particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Still, it says it would have been worse had central banks not taken preemptive action to avoid financial meltdown. Relief packages and a bounce-back in commodity prices as well as the fast-tracking of vaccine development also helped, the report said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.N. body raises global economic growth forecast for 2021 to 4.7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.N. body raises global economic growth forecast for 2021 to 4.7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-18 14:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GENEVA, March 18 (Reuters) - The global economy is set to grow by 4.7% this year thanks to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the United States, a report by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Thursday, revising up its previous forecast of 4.3%.</p>\n<p>The upwards revision from its previous forecast made last September factors in an expected boost in U.S. consumer spending on the back of progress distributing COVID-19 vaccines and a vast stimulus package, the report said.</p>\n<p>\"The global recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to continue through 2021, albeit with a good deal of unevenness and unpredictability, reflecting epidemiological, policy and coordination uncertainties,\" the report said.</p>\n<p>Earlier this month, the OECD also revised higher its growth forecast for this year to 5.6 % from 4.2 %.</p>\n<p>However, the 22-page UNCTAD report called 'Out of the frying pan...into the fire?' said COVID-19 will have lasting economic consequences that will require continued government support. It said the main risk to the global outlook is a \"misguided return to austerity\".</p>\n<p>The report estimates that last year there was a 3.9 % drop in output as the spread of the coronavirus sparked lockdowns across the world.</p>\n<p>It called the impact \"exorbitant\", describing the \"destruction of income on an unprecedented scale\" with people in developing countries particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Still, it says it would have been worse had central banks not taken preemptive action to avoid financial meltdown. Relief packages and a bounce-back in commodity prices as well as the fast-tracking of vaccine development also helped, the report said.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSI":"恒生指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120130261","content_text":"GENEVA, March 18 (Reuters) - The global economy is set to grow by 4.7% this year thanks to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the United States, a report by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Thursday, revising up its previous forecast of 4.3%.\nThe upwards revision from its previous forecast made last September factors in an expected boost in U.S. consumer spending on the back of progress distributing COVID-19 vaccines and a vast stimulus package, the report said.\n\"The global recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to continue through 2021, albeit with a good deal of unevenness and unpredictability, reflecting epidemiological, policy and coordination uncertainties,\" the report said.\nEarlier this month, the OECD also revised higher its growth forecast for this year to 5.6 % from 4.2 %.\nHowever, the 22-page UNCTAD report called 'Out of the frying pan...into the fire?' said COVID-19 will have lasting economic consequences that will require continued government support. It said the main risk to the global outlook is a \"misguided return to austerity\".\nThe report estimates that last year there was a 3.9 % drop in output as the spread of the coronavirus sparked lockdowns across the world.\nIt called the impact \"exorbitant\", describing the \"destruction of income on an unprecedented scale\" with people in developing countries particularly hard hit.\nStill, it says it would have been worse had central banks not taken preemptive action to avoid financial meltdown. Relief packages and a bounce-back in commodity prices as well as the fast-tracking of vaccine development also helped, the report said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324320857,"gmtCreate":1615966709279,"gmtModify":1704789021336,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good info","listText":"Good info","text":"Good info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324320857","repostId":"1180242005","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325469184,"gmtCreate":1615914546248,"gmtModify":1704788477085,"author":{"id":"3578379695086113","authorId":"3578379695086113","name":"Prospersim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed1a29580048152f8f7a90edcb6861b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578379695086113","authorIdStr":"3578379695086113"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325469184","repostId":"1121564086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121564086","pubTimestamp":1615899026,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121564086?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Larry McDonald Warns \"The Big [Market] Quake Is Coming\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121564086","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech ","content":"<p>The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech stocks are under pressure. Accordingly, tensions are high when the Federal Reserve decides on the future course of its monetary policy this Wednesday.</p>\n<p><i><b>«The Fed has its back against the wall,»</b></i>says Larry McDonald during a conversation via Zoom. The internationally renowned macro strategist and former senior trader at Lehman Brothers warns that the Federal Reserve has little time to mitigate the explosive situation in the bond and currency markets. Otherwise, he says, the global economy is at risk of another crisis.</p>\n<p>Since last spring, the founder of the independent investment advisor&nbsp;The Bear Traps Report&nbsp;has been&nbsp;recommending investments&nbsp;in the commodity sector, where he believes a new super cycle has begun. He&nbsp;reiterated his recommendation&nbsp;during his last conversation with The Market in late 2020. Today, his call for a big reflation trade has become the consensus on Wall Street.</p>\n<p>In this new interview with The Market/NZZ, which has been edited and condensed for clarity, Larry McDonald tells why he expects the Federal Reserve to resort to yield curve control fairly soon and what that will mean for gold and silver. He also explains why the rotation into commodities and value stocks is only just beginning and where he currently sees the best opportunities for investments.</p>\n<p><b>After the turmoil of the past few weeks, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. What can investors expect from Wednesday's Fed meeting?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>We’re at a point where the market is moving way ahead of the Federal Reserve.</b>The Fed is on «outcome-based guidance», but the beast, that serpent in the market, wants more than that. Basically, the market is saying: «The US economy is going to grow 6 or 7% this year, and that will force you to taper in Q3 or Q4.» As investors are pricing in a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases, financial conditions are tightening; especially in emerging markets, where spreads on credit default swaps are rising. So far, financial conditions are nowhere near extremely dangerous levels. But the problem is everybody thinks we’re in a similar situation as back in 2018.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What do you mean by that?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n Once again, the Fed is playing «Tough Guy»: The market demands a policy pivot, but the Fed is trying to hold on to its path, essentially signaling to investors: «No way, relax». We had a similar set-up in 2013, 2016 and 2018. These were the three most significant monetary policy shifts where market pressures broke the Fed's desired policy path.\n <b>The problem is that back then the Fed had far more rope to play Tough Guy since the economy was stronger. In 2018 for instance</b>, the US economy was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. In contrast, today’s employment-to-population ratio is 3.5 percentage points below January 2020 levels. This means 13 million Americans are outside the labor force. To get back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy has to create more than 540,000 jobs a month for two years.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>So what does this mean for this week's Fed meeting?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The Fed is planet earth’s central bank. Every time they tried to play Tough Guy, they’ve blown up the global economy.</b>This time, the Fed's Tough Guy window is much smaller. In 2018 or 2013 that window was nine to ten months. Now, it’s like two months because the economy is so weak. If they let financial conditions tighten further, they risk a major default cycle.\n <b>The negative multiplier effect of a stronger dollar is much higher to the world economy than the Fed anticipates</b>. They can't afford to let the dollar rip higher, because there is so much dollar denominated debt in the world, so much trade tied to the Greenback. If they blow that up, it will just blow back to the US and force the Fed into a policy shift anyway. It’s like with an oil change at the car repair shop: You can pay now or you can pay later. That’s why the Fed has to pay now.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Why?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The Fed’s back is against the wall, all points to proactive action on March 17.</b>They must suppress taper fears and cut these risks off, or else they blow up the global economy for the 4th time since 2013. We’re hearing that they’re already getting incoming calls from emerging market central banks right now. If Fed Chairman Jay Powell plays Tough Guy by staying with the current path, without offering further assurances of deeper, more sustainable accommodation, the beast inside the market will keep pushing him until he breaks. We will see a repeat of Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, where the Fed was forced into an utterly embarrassing pivot. One of those is enough for Powell’s legacy, he doesn’t want two.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What kind of measures can be expected?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Eventually, we will get the taper, but the overwhelming point is other weapons have to come first.</b>A Federal Reserve offering insufficient accommodation places markets in the crosshairs of a risk-off event. The first thing they will try to do is give some hard data points. For example, the US economy has to create 10 million jobs for the Fed to do anything on the balance sheet. Another way they can get out is calendar guidance, but that’s a more sophisticated weaponry. Bottom line, they should just say: «From now until the end of the year QE will continue at $120 billion a month, and we want PCE-inflation to get to between 2 and 2.5% and stay there for 24 months.» With that in place,\n <b>all they have to do is open the door two or three inches for yield curve control, and they can contain the dollar.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The last time the Federal Reserve used yield curve control was during the time of World War II. Why would it resort to such a radical measure?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Here’s the dirty little secret: Too many Treasury bonds are for sale.</b>There aren’t enough buyers, and that will force the Fed to step in. More than $3.6 trillion of US government paper was issued in 2020 versus $2.9 trillion in the prior year. With the new $1.9 trillion fiscal package coming from Washington, issuance in 2021 is slated to rise to $4 trillion. That’s a lot more than the Fed’s Treasury purchases through QE, so the spread between QE and debt issuance gets much wider. Washington is doing so much fiscal stimulus, I’m confident that this is going to force the Fed into yield curve control by September. If that’s the case, it will pressure the dollar lower and put commodities, value stocks, global cyclicals, materials and emerging markets into rotation overdrive.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>How come?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Yield curve control deployment is the tactical nuclear weaponry.</b>If the Fed throws out yield curve control just as a threat, it will suppress Treasury rates and real yields will go much more negative. Over the last couple of months, the issuance has overpowered inflation expectations. Think of it as a car race: Treasury issuances were driving up yields faster than inflation expectations rose. But if the Fed starts to acknowledge that they are going to bring out new weapons like calendar guidance and yield curve control, then they’re suppressing nominal yields. So if inflation expectations continue to rise, then real yields go big negative – and that’s when gold and silver will take off. I think silver can double from here until early next year. Gold could be up 50%.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>How can investors best position themselves in this environment?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n In terms of emerging markets, we’re\n <b>long Chile and Brazil.</b>In Asia, South Korea looks attractive. We also like the KWEB ETF which consists of the big Chinese tech stocks. In the commodity space, we have a position in the XME ETF which owns mainly\n <b>copper and steel names.</b>One of the best companies we own is Teck Resources. This stock is almost like a commodity mutual fund, because the company has exposure to copper, nickel and even energy. Another favorite is Mosaic because in a commodity cycle where you have weather problems around the world,\n <b>agricultural plays are a good bet.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What about precious metals?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>When it comes to precious metals, we love silver miners</b>like Hecla Mining. When the Fed eases its policy, the silver miners will outperform the underlying metal, and they will outperform gold because there is more leverage there.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The gold price is down more than 15% since its all-time high in August. What’s the problem?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Everyone thinks it’s 2013, so taper fears are sky high for gold. But the Fed cannot repeat its mistakes.</b>They must cap yields if they want to preserve the global economic recovery. Thus, the convexity with gold is very attractive. Every leg lower in real yields will act like a slingshot higher for gold. That’s why we love Newmont. The stock trades at 6x EBITDA with a 4% dividend yield which gives you some downside protection. And remember: The 2011-2016 commodity bust has made the balance sheet of these high quality gold mining companies a lot stronger.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>President Joe Biden has just signed off on a $1.9 trillion economic program. What are the chances of a second stimulus bill, aimed at infrastructure?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n It’s important to note that\n <b>a second fiscal deal for 2021 is not a slam dunk.</b>To pass the present $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, the Democrats used reconciliation. It’s a very special trick in US politics, because with reconciliation you don’t need 60 votes to pass a bill in the Senate. All you need is 50 votes. Yet, reconciliation has to be tied to a budget year. This means the next time the Democrats can use it is probably in the fourth quarter, late November or December, and tie it to the following year's budget. So the only way to do an infrastructure bill in the next six months is with a traditional piece of legislation.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Is that even possible, given how wide the rift between Republicans and Democrats has opened in recent years?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n For that you need essentially ten Republicans. Right now, the centrists on the Hill, people like Mitt Romney on the Republican side or Joe Manchin on the Democrat side, are the most powerful people in Washington. They want to do an infrastructure program, but they want to finance it with tax revenue. They don’t believe in things like Modern Monetary Theory where the Fed is financing the deficit.\n <b>So you are going to need a tax hike. And in this regard, we’re hearing they could go after some type of flat tax on the FAANGs, the big technology companies.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What does this mean for Apple, Google, Facebook and other tech heavyweights?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n Keep in mind, we’re in a populist revolution:\n <b>The risk of inequality leading to social unrest is high, and that puts pressure on politicians to pass bills to tax the rich.</b>But a wealth tax is extremely complicated, it would take years. The simplest way to do something in terms of taxes is to tax larger companies. In the eighties, the top 100 companies in the US maintained about 45 to 50% of total profits. Today, the largest 20 companies command about 85 to 90%. In addition to that, close to 40% of the S&amp;P 500’s market cap is related to tech. So tech is the low hanging fruit for the populists in Congress to go after.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>One more reason why tech stocks remain under pressure?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n We run a bunch of models. For example, we look at Berkshire Hathaway’s share price versus the Nasdaq 100 or the Dow Jones Industrial versus the Nasdaq. March 8th was the second time in 2021 that the Nasdaq closed down 2% with the Dow closing higher.\n <b>We haven’t seen this type of data since the dotcom crash. It’s a very rare event which historically coincides with a longer-term rotation out of technology stocks. That’s a very encouraging signal for value stocks.</b>In this regard, we like the EWU ETF. It’s a wonderful basket of stocks because it’s full of financials and world class names like BP, Rio Tinto or Glencore. Officially, it’s called the United Kingdom ETF, but it’s more like a global value ETF.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Does this mean that the rotation towards cyclical stocks has only just begun?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Many investors around the world are long a portfolio of stocks that was designed for the deflationary environment of the previous decade.</b>The decade ahead of us - with all what’s ahead in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus, populism, regulation and taxes - will push investors toward more globally value related stocks. That’s where the best returns are going to be.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>So the previously successful «buy the dip» strategy of simply buying more tech stocks after every decline no longer works?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The potency of dip-buying is in decay mode.</b>Global value is really starting to kick tech in the teeth, and when that happens, it wakes up what's called «real money». Keep in mind: There is fast money, mostly hedge funds which are nimble and make quick moves. In contrast, real money moves slowly. Those types of investors don’t make asset allocation decisions quickly. They base their decisions on committees and all kinds of meetings. As a result, tectonic plates are shifting beneath our feet. We’ve seen tremors after tremors where value is starting to crush growth, and now the earthquake is coming. At Bear Traps, we have a Bloomberg chat with 650 institutional investors, and I can tell just by these conversations, that the real money is starting to move.\n <b>And when the real money moves, that’s when the big quake happens.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What kind of dislocations will this cause?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Tech will probably be down 30 to 40% sometime between now and the end of October.</b>Today, the market cap of the Nasdaq 100 is close to $12 trillion, but most large-cap tech stocks are unchanged since July last year, while commodity and value-related equities are up 20 to 50%. In the US, if you talk to a hundred high-net-worth families, every one of those families owns Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon. But look what’s happening: Amazon’s stock is flat since the 4th of July 2020. That's $1.5 trillion of dead money. Last Friday, Amazon failed at the 200-day moving average again.\n <b>This is like Mike Tyson getting defeated by Buster Douglas, one of the greatest upsets in sports history. This psychology is moving through the market, pushing the capital migration process into value and commodity plays.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>However, investments in commodities are mostly not compliant with the trend towards ESG standards; especially when it comes to CO2 emissions.</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The best ESG trade on the board is nuclear power. The largest uranium company in the US is Cameco with a $7 market cap.</b>Think about that relative to Elon Musk’s net worth! I support the Green New Deal, but this needs time, because solar and wind are still too far away to produce the amount of energy needed around the world, especially in India and China. The only way to meet that demand is through nuclear power. Uranium is coming out of a ten-year bear market, and it’s going into a massive new bull market. All the contracts between power plants and uranium producers are going to be adjusted. That’s why we like the URA ETF which owns companies like Cameco. I see some of these companies as six baggers: 500% upside potential and 30 to 40% downside risk, because uranium is still a risky commodity.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>In our&nbsp;last conversation, you recommended investments in the energy sector. Since then, names such as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil have advanced 25 to 60%. What do you advise investors to do now?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>For now, we’ve cut our energy book:</b>We’ve sold half of our shares in Chevron, and we’ve sold two thirds of our positions in Exxon Mobil and in the XLE ETF. What happens when you get into the fourth, fifth and sixth innings of a commodity cycle, tertiary sectors like metallurgical coal become more attractive. Sure, met coal, also known as coking coal, is not ESG friendly, but there is no way around it for steel production and hence the construction of skyscrapers, bridges and things like that. So coming into this infrastructure boom all around the world, coal has plenty of upside. That’s why we own names like Arch Resources and Peabody Energy. They’re low-leveraged, and really cheap, once again, on a risk/reward basis.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What are the biggest dangers to watch out for in the coming weeks and months?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>One spot to watch are all these forbearance deals in commercial real estate.</b>When we come out of Covid and the vaccines and the stimulus money are juicing through the economy, the market will be forcing the release of the forbearance on a lot of these loans. So if people don’t come back fast enough to the cities, these commercial real estate loans are going to get reset. This would mean some big defaults, and the banks own a lot of these loans. Also, a lot of leveraged loans are really rich. And then, there is potentially a fiscal cliff:\n <b>The sustainability of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package isn’t that great because a lot of it is just transfer payments replacing lost income for people staying at home. That’s why the US needs a second stimulus bill. If we don’t get a second bill, we are going to have a problem in about a year from now.</b>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Larry McDonald Warns \"The Big [Market] Quake Is Coming\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarry McDonald Warns \"The Big [Market] Quake Is Coming\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/larry-mcdonald-warns-big-market-quake-coming><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech stocks are under pressure. Accordingly, tensions are high when the Federal Reserve decides on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/larry-mcdonald-warns-big-market-quake-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/larry-mcdonald-warns-big-market-quake-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121564086","content_text":"The mood is testy. Yields on Treasuries are rising, the dollar is trending stronger, and major tech stocks are under pressure. Accordingly, tensions are high when the Federal Reserve decides on the future course of its monetary policy this Wednesday.\n«The Fed has its back against the wall,»says Larry McDonald during a conversation via Zoom. The internationally renowned macro strategist and former senior trader at Lehman Brothers warns that the Federal Reserve has little time to mitigate the explosive situation in the bond and currency markets. Otherwise, he says, the global economy is at risk of another crisis.\nSince last spring, the founder of the independent investment advisor The Bear Traps Report has been recommending investments in the commodity sector, where he believes a new super cycle has begun. He reiterated his recommendation during his last conversation with The Market in late 2020. Today, his call for a big reflation trade has become the consensus on Wall Street.\nIn this new interview with The Market/NZZ, which has been edited and condensed for clarity, Larry McDonald tells why he expects the Federal Reserve to resort to yield curve control fairly soon and what that will mean for gold and silver. He also explains why the rotation into commodities and value stocks is only just beginning and where he currently sees the best opportunities for investments.\nAfter the turmoil of the past few weeks, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. What can investors expect from Wednesday's Fed meeting?\n\nWe’re at a point where the market is moving way ahead of the Federal Reserve.The Fed is on «outcome-based guidance», but the beast, that serpent in the market, wants more than that. Basically, the market is saying: «The US economy is going to grow 6 or 7% this year, and that will force you to taper in Q3 or Q4.» As investors are pricing in a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases, financial conditions are tightening; especially in emerging markets, where spreads on credit default swaps are rising. So far, financial conditions are nowhere near extremely dangerous levels. But the problem is everybody thinks we’re in a similar situation as back in 2018.\n\nWhat do you mean by that?\n\n Once again, the Fed is playing «Tough Guy»: The market demands a policy pivot, but the Fed is trying to hold on to its path, essentially signaling to investors: «No way, relax». We had a similar set-up in 2013, 2016 and 2018. These were the three most significant monetary policy shifts where market pressures broke the Fed's desired policy path.\n The problem is that back then the Fed had far more rope to play Tough Guy since the economy was stronger. In 2018 for instance, the US economy was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. In contrast, today’s employment-to-population ratio is 3.5 percentage points below January 2020 levels. This means 13 million Americans are outside the labor force. To get back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy has to create more than 540,000 jobs a month for two years.\n\nSo what does this mean for this week's Fed meeting?\n\nThe Fed is planet earth’s central bank. Every time they tried to play Tough Guy, they’ve blown up the global economy.This time, the Fed's Tough Guy window is much smaller. In 2018 or 2013 that window was nine to ten months. Now, it’s like two months because the economy is so weak. If they let financial conditions tighten further, they risk a major default cycle.\n The negative multiplier effect of a stronger dollar is much higher to the world economy than the Fed anticipates. They can't afford to let the dollar rip higher, because there is so much dollar denominated debt in the world, so much trade tied to the Greenback. If they blow that up, it will just blow back to the US and force the Fed into a policy shift anyway. It’s like with an oil change at the car repair shop: You can pay now or you can pay later. That’s why the Fed has to pay now.\n\nWhy?\n\nThe Fed’s back is against the wall, all points to proactive action on March 17.They must suppress taper fears and cut these risks off, or else they blow up the global economy for the 4th time since 2013. We’re hearing that they’re already getting incoming calls from emerging market central banks right now. If Fed Chairman Jay Powell plays Tough Guy by staying with the current path, without offering further assurances of deeper, more sustainable accommodation, the beast inside the market will keep pushing him until he breaks. We will see a repeat of Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, where the Fed was forced into an utterly embarrassing pivot. One of those is enough for Powell’s legacy, he doesn’t want two.\n\nWhat kind of measures can be expected?\n\nEventually, we will get the taper, but the overwhelming point is other weapons have to come first.A Federal Reserve offering insufficient accommodation places markets in the crosshairs of a risk-off event. The first thing they will try to do is give some hard data points. For example, the US economy has to create 10 million jobs for the Fed to do anything on the balance sheet. Another way they can get out is calendar guidance, but that’s a more sophisticated weaponry. Bottom line, they should just say: «From now until the end of the year QE will continue at $120 billion a month, and we want PCE-inflation to get to between 2 and 2.5% and stay there for 24 months.» With that in place,\n all they have to do is open the door two or three inches for yield curve control, and they can contain the dollar.\n\nThe last time the Federal Reserve used yield curve control was during the time of World War II. Why would it resort to such a radical measure?\n\nHere’s the dirty little secret: Too many Treasury bonds are for sale.There aren’t enough buyers, and that will force the Fed to step in. More than $3.6 trillion of US government paper was issued in 2020 versus $2.9 trillion in the prior year. With the new $1.9 trillion fiscal package coming from Washington, issuance in 2021 is slated to rise to $4 trillion. That’s a lot more than the Fed’s Treasury purchases through QE, so the spread between QE and debt issuance gets much wider. Washington is doing so much fiscal stimulus, I’m confident that this is going to force the Fed into yield curve control by September. If that’s the case, it will pressure the dollar lower and put commodities, value stocks, global cyclicals, materials and emerging markets into rotation overdrive.\n\nHow come?\n\nYield curve control deployment is the tactical nuclear weaponry.If the Fed throws out yield curve control just as a threat, it will suppress Treasury rates and real yields will go much more negative. Over the last couple of months, the issuance has overpowered inflation expectations. Think of it as a car race: Treasury issuances were driving up yields faster than inflation expectations rose. But if the Fed starts to acknowledge that they are going to bring out new weapons like calendar guidance and yield curve control, then they’re suppressing nominal yields. So if inflation expectations continue to rise, then real yields go big negative – and that’s when gold and silver will take off. I think silver can double from here until early next year. Gold could be up 50%.\n\nHow can investors best position themselves in this environment?\n\n In terms of emerging markets, we’re\n long Chile and Brazil.In Asia, South Korea looks attractive. We also like the KWEB ETF which consists of the big Chinese tech stocks. In the commodity space, we have a position in the XME ETF which owns mainly\n copper and steel names.One of the best companies we own is Teck Resources. This stock is almost like a commodity mutual fund, because the company has exposure to copper, nickel and even energy. Another favorite is Mosaic because in a commodity cycle where you have weather problems around the world,\n agricultural plays are a good bet.\n\nWhat about precious metals?\n\nWhen it comes to precious metals, we love silver minerslike Hecla Mining. When the Fed eases its policy, the silver miners will outperform the underlying metal, and they will outperform gold because there is more leverage there.\n\nThe gold price is down more than 15% since its all-time high in August. What’s the problem?\n\nEveryone thinks it’s 2013, so taper fears are sky high for gold. But the Fed cannot repeat its mistakes.They must cap yields if they want to preserve the global economic recovery. Thus, the convexity with gold is very attractive. Every leg lower in real yields will act like a slingshot higher for gold. That’s why we love Newmont. The stock trades at 6x EBITDA with a 4% dividend yield which gives you some downside protection. And remember: The 2011-2016 commodity bust has made the balance sheet of these high quality gold mining companies a lot stronger.\n\nPresident Joe Biden has just signed off on a $1.9 trillion economic program. What are the chances of a second stimulus bill, aimed at infrastructure?\n\n It’s important to note that\n a second fiscal deal for 2021 is not a slam dunk.To pass the present $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, the Democrats used reconciliation. It’s a very special trick in US politics, because with reconciliation you don’t need 60 votes to pass a bill in the Senate. All you need is 50 votes. Yet, reconciliation has to be tied to a budget year. This means the next time the Democrats can use it is probably in the fourth quarter, late November or December, and tie it to the following year's budget. So the only way to do an infrastructure bill in the next six months is with a traditional piece of legislation.\n\nIs that even possible, given how wide the rift between Republicans and Democrats has opened in recent years?\n\n For that you need essentially ten Republicans. Right now, the centrists on the Hill, people like Mitt Romney on the Republican side or Joe Manchin on the Democrat side, are the most powerful people in Washington. They want to do an infrastructure program, but they want to finance it with tax revenue. They don’t believe in things like Modern Monetary Theory where the Fed is financing the deficit.\n So you are going to need a tax hike. And in this regard, we’re hearing they could go after some type of flat tax on the FAANGs, the big technology companies.\n\nWhat does this mean for Apple, Google, Facebook and other tech heavyweights?\n\n Keep in mind, we’re in a populist revolution:\n The risk of inequality leading to social unrest is high, and that puts pressure on politicians to pass bills to tax the rich.But a wealth tax is extremely complicated, it would take years. The simplest way to do something in terms of taxes is to tax larger companies. In the eighties, the top 100 companies in the US maintained about 45 to 50% of total profits. Today, the largest 20 companies command about 85 to 90%. In addition to that, close to 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap is related to tech. So tech is the low hanging fruit for the populists in Congress to go after.\n\nOne more reason why tech stocks remain under pressure?\n\n We run a bunch of models. For example, we look at Berkshire Hathaway’s share price versus the Nasdaq 100 or the Dow Jones Industrial versus the Nasdaq. March 8th was the second time in 2021 that the Nasdaq closed down 2% with the Dow closing higher.\n We haven’t seen this type of data since the dotcom crash. It’s a very rare event which historically coincides with a longer-term rotation out of technology stocks. That’s a very encouraging signal for value stocks.In this regard, we like the EWU ETF. It’s a wonderful basket of stocks because it’s full of financials and world class names like BP, Rio Tinto or Glencore. Officially, it’s called the United Kingdom ETF, but it’s more like a global value ETF.\n\nDoes this mean that the rotation towards cyclical stocks has only just begun?\n\nMany investors around the world are long a portfolio of stocks that was designed for the deflationary environment of the previous decade.The decade ahead of us - with all what’s ahead in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus, populism, regulation and taxes - will push investors toward more globally value related stocks. That’s where the best returns are going to be.\n\nSo the previously successful «buy the dip» strategy of simply buying more tech stocks after every decline no longer works?\n\nThe potency of dip-buying is in decay mode.Global value is really starting to kick tech in the teeth, and when that happens, it wakes up what's called «real money». Keep in mind: There is fast money, mostly hedge funds which are nimble and make quick moves. In contrast, real money moves slowly. Those types of investors don’t make asset allocation decisions quickly. They base their decisions on committees and all kinds of meetings. As a result, tectonic plates are shifting beneath our feet. We’ve seen tremors after tremors where value is starting to crush growth, and now the earthquake is coming. At Bear Traps, we have a Bloomberg chat with 650 institutional investors, and I can tell just by these conversations, that the real money is starting to move.\n And when the real money moves, that’s when the big quake happens.\n\nWhat kind of dislocations will this cause?\n\nTech will probably be down 30 to 40% sometime between now and the end of October.Today, the market cap of the Nasdaq 100 is close to $12 trillion, but most large-cap tech stocks are unchanged since July last year, while commodity and value-related equities are up 20 to 50%. In the US, if you talk to a hundred high-net-worth families, every one of those families owns Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon. But look what’s happening: Amazon’s stock is flat since the 4th of July 2020. That's $1.5 trillion of dead money. Last Friday, Amazon failed at the 200-day moving average again.\n This is like Mike Tyson getting defeated by Buster Douglas, one of the greatest upsets in sports history. This psychology is moving through the market, pushing the capital migration process into value and commodity plays.\n\nHowever, investments in commodities are mostly not compliant with the trend towards ESG standards; especially when it comes to CO2 emissions.\n\nThe best ESG trade on the board is nuclear power. The largest uranium company in the US is Cameco with a $7 market cap.Think about that relative to Elon Musk’s net worth! I support the Green New Deal, but this needs time, because solar and wind are still too far away to produce the amount of energy needed around the world, especially in India and China. The only way to meet that demand is through nuclear power. Uranium is coming out of a ten-year bear market, and it’s going into a massive new bull market. All the contracts between power plants and uranium producers are going to be adjusted. That’s why we like the URA ETF which owns companies like Cameco. I see some of these companies as six baggers: 500% upside potential and 30 to 40% downside risk, because uranium is still a risky commodity.\n\nIn our last conversation, you recommended investments in the energy sector. Since then, names such as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell or Exxon Mobil have advanced 25 to 60%. What do you advise investors to do now?\n\nFor now, we’ve cut our energy book:We’ve sold half of our shares in Chevron, and we’ve sold two thirds of our positions in Exxon Mobil and in the XLE ETF. What happens when you get into the fourth, fifth and sixth innings of a commodity cycle, tertiary sectors like metallurgical coal become more attractive. Sure, met coal, also known as coking coal, is not ESG friendly, but there is no way around it for steel production and hence the construction of skyscrapers, bridges and things like that. So coming into this infrastructure boom all around the world, coal has plenty of upside. That’s why we own names like Arch Resources and Peabody Energy. They’re low-leveraged, and really cheap, once again, on a risk/reward basis.\n\nWhat are the biggest dangers to watch out for in the coming weeks and months?\n\nOne spot to watch are all these forbearance deals in commercial real estate.When we come out of Covid and the vaccines and the stimulus money are juicing through the economy, the market will be forcing the release of the forbearance on a lot of these loans. So if people don’t come back fast enough to the cities, these commercial real estate loans are going to get reset. This would mean some big defaults, and the banks own a lot of these loans. Also, a lot of leveraged loans are really rich. And then, there is potentially a fiscal cliff:\n The sustainability of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package isn’t that great because a lot of it is just transfer payments replacing lost income for people staying at home. That’s why the US needs a second stimulus bill. If we don’t get a second bill, we are going to have a problem in about a year from now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}