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2023-09-04

Yes

Will Alphabet Be a $2 Trillion Stock by 2024?

2023-08-31

$Infobird Co., Ltd(IFBD)$ Up 34% pre market!!!

2023-07-26

Dammit

Alibaba's Cloud Unit Brings Meta's AI Model Llama to Its Clients

2023-07-26

Good points but soft land is inline

The Fed Should Continue Hiking Past 6%

2023-07-25

Screw Labour!!!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-07-01

😎

Pre-Bell｜Futures Extended Gains After May Inflation Data; Apple’s Market Cap Passes $3 Trillion in Early Trading

2023-06-30

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$

2023-06-30

Whoop whoop! [Cool]

2023-06-29

DCA

July Can Be a Top Month for Stocks. Here’s What It Will Take for the Market to Rally Again This Summer

2023-06-29

$Maris Tech Ltd.(MTEK)$ Buy & Hold

2023-06-29

Let's go!! ❤️‍🔥

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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14:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Alphabet Be a $2 Trillion Stock by 2024?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2364771092","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Alphabet once was worth $2 trillion, but it hasn't been at that level since 2021.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_811509253\" style=\"text-align: start;\">KEY POINTS</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Alphabet has worked to reduce its operating expenses.</p></li><li><p>Cloud computing is a significant tailwind for Alphabet.</p></li><li><p>Alphabet&#39;s stock is trading around its historical valuation levels.</p></li></ul><p>Although <strong>Alphabet </strong>briefly eclipsed the $2 trillion threshold in late 2021, it hasn&#39;t returned to that level since. For Alphabet to return to that exclusive club by next year, it would need to return 18%. While that&#39;s not a high threshold, Alphabet has a few hurdles to overcome before achieving and maintaining a $2 trillion valuation.</p><p>So, can Alphabet do it by 2024? Or will it be left outside the $2 trillion club? Let&#39;s find out.</p><h2 id=\"id_724885790\">Alphabet is working to solve many of investors&#39; concerns</h2><p>Although some of Alphabet&#39;s business segments such as cloud computing get a lot of publicity, 78% of revenue came from advertising sources -- but this segment isn&#39;t growing quickly. Thanks to businesses tightening their advertising budgets, Alphabet hasn&#39;t seen meaningful growth in the segment. In the second quarter of 2023, revenue was only up 7% year over year, with advertising&#39;s 3% growth dragging down the total. However, this is likely temporary.</p><p>Alphabet owns two of the most popular platforms around: Google and YouTube. Both are category leaders, and YouTube has the greatest share of U.S. daily screen time among streaming platforms. The popularity of these two products will likely make them some of the first places advertisers increase their spending. However, it&#39;s unknown when the economy will recover enough for this spending to return, so this may continue to be a headwind into 2024. But, with Wall Street analysts projecting Alphabet&#39;s revenue growth to be 11% in 2024, it indicates that advertising revenue should return to some extent.</p><p>Another problem investors have highlighted with Alphabet is its operating expenses. In 2022, Alphabet was hiring anyone it could, which caused its expenses to rise substantially. Alphabet went through a few rounds of layoffs earlier this year to counteract this rise. Still, Alphabet&#39;s employee count has risen by nearly 8,000 since last year. But through diligent spending, Alphabet managed to keep its operating expenses flat year over year in Q2, which allowed it to increase its operating profit by 12%.</p><p>So, with Alphabet looking like it can conquer two primary issues, the stock looks well set up for 2024. But there&#39;s also a lot to be excited about.</p><h2 id=\"id_1311040752\">Cloud computing will provide Alphabet a boost in 2024</h2><p>Artificial intelligence (AI) is a massive trend in cloud computing and standard business operations, and Alphabet&#39;s Google Cloud currently holds a third-place position in terms of market share. The total market opportunity for cloud computing is about $678 billion currently but is expected to rapidly grow to $2.4 trillion by 2030. With Alphabet having a strong foothold in this massive opportunity, this segment will continue to boost Alphabet&#39;s results just like it did in Q2, when it grew 28%. Furthermore, Google Cloud became profitable in 2023 and will likely continue to increase its profitability throughout the coming year, boosting Amazon&#39;s overall profits.</p><p>These factors should add up to increased earnings per share (EPS), which would decrease Amazon&#39;s valuation if the stock price stayed the same. However, with Alphabet trading around its average price-to-earnings valuation, it&#39;s not overpriced, either.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f92258f19dec9528ef0be9ae6f836d7a\" alt=\"GOOGL PE Ratio data by YCharts\" title=\"GOOGL PE Ratio data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>GOOGL PE Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>Yet because Amazon&#39;s not overvalued, business results should translate directly into stock price movements. With revenue and EPS expected to grow by 11% and 18%, respectively, in 2024, I think it&#39;s reasonable to bet that Alphabet can be a $2 trillion company by 2024.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Alphabet Be a $2 Trillion Stock by 2024?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alphabet Be a $2 Trillion Stock by 2024?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-04 14:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/09/01/will-alphabet-be-a-2-trillion-stock-by-2024/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSAlphabet has worked to reduce its operating expenses.Cloud computing is a significant tailwind for Alphabet.Alphabet's stock is trading around its historical valuation levels.Although ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/09/01/will-alphabet-be-a-2-trillion-stock-by-2024/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","BK4507":"流媒体概念","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4576":"AR","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4538":"云计算","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/09/01/will-alphabet-be-a-2-trillion-stock-by-2024/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2364771092","content_text":"KEY POINTSAlphabet has worked to reduce its operating expenses.Cloud computing is a significant tailwind for Alphabet.Alphabet's stock is trading around its historical valuation levels.Although Alphabet briefly eclipsed the $2 trillion threshold in late 2021, it hasn't returned to that level since. For Alphabet to return to that exclusive club by next year, it would need to return 18%. While that's not a high threshold, Alphabet has a few hurdles to overcome before achieving and maintaining a $2 trillion valuation.So, can Alphabet do it by 2024? Or will it be left outside the $2 trillion club? Let's find out.Alphabet is working to solve many of investors' concernsAlthough some of Alphabet's business segments such as cloud computing get a lot of publicity, 78% of revenue came from advertising sources -- but this segment isn't growing quickly. Thanks to businesses tightening their advertising budgets, Alphabet hasn't seen meaningful growth in the segment. In the second quarter of 2023, revenue was only up 7% year over year, with advertising's 3% growth dragging down the total. However, this is likely temporary.Alphabet owns two of the most popular platforms around: Google and YouTube. Both are category leaders, and YouTube has the greatest share of U.S. daily screen time among streaming platforms. The popularity of these two products will likely make them some of the first places advertisers increase their spending. However, it's unknown when the economy will recover enough for this spending to return, so this may continue to be a headwind into 2024. But, with Wall Street analysts projecting Alphabet's revenue growth to be 11% in 2024, it indicates that advertising revenue should return to some extent.Another problem investors have highlighted with Alphabet is its operating expenses. In 2022, Alphabet was hiring anyone it could, which caused its expenses to rise substantially. Alphabet went through a few rounds of layoffs earlier this year to counteract this rise. Still, Alphabet's employee count has risen by nearly 8,000 since last year. But through diligent spending, Alphabet managed to keep its operating expenses flat year over year in Q2, which allowed it to increase its operating profit by 12%.So, with Alphabet looking like it can conquer two primary issues, the stock looks well set up for 2024. But there's also a lot to be excited about.Cloud computing will provide Alphabet a boost in 2024Artificial intelligence (AI) is a massive trend in cloud computing and standard business operations, and Alphabet's Google Cloud currently holds a third-place position in terms of market share. The total market opportunity for cloud computing is about $678 billion currently but is expected to rapidly grow to $2.4 trillion by 2030. With Alphabet having a strong foothold in this massive opportunity, this segment will continue to boost Alphabet's results just like it did in Q2, when it grew 28%. Furthermore, Google Cloud became profitable in 2023 and will likely continue to increase its profitability throughout the coming year, boosting Amazon's overall profits.These factors should add up to increased earnings per share (EPS), which would decrease Amazon's valuation if the stock price stayed the same. However, with Alphabet trading around its average price-to-earnings valuation, it's not overpriced, either.GOOGL PE Ratio data by YChartsYet because Amazon's not overvalued, business results should translate directly into stock price movements. With revenue and EPS expected to grow by 11% and 18%, respectively, in 2024, I think it's reasonable to bet that Alphabet can be a $2 trillion company by 2024.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":214771772207264,"gmtCreate":1693471404850,"gmtModify":1693471407278,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IFBD\">$Infobird Co., Ltd(IFBD)$&nbsp;</a>Up 34% pre market!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IFBD\">$Infobird Co., Ltd(IFBD)$&nbsp;</a>Up 34% pre market!!!","text":"$Infobird Co., Ltd(IFBD)$ Up 34% pre market!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/214771772207264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":202122155638992,"gmtCreate":1690366912853,"gmtModify":1690366916160,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dammit&nbsp;","listText":"Dammit&nbsp;","text":"Dammit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/202122155638992","repostId":"2354376182","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2354376182","pubTimestamp":1690364385,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2354376182?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-26 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba's Cloud Unit Brings Meta's AI Model Llama to Its Clients","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2354376182","media":"CNA","summary":"Alibaba's cloud computing division said it has become the first Chinese enterprise to support Meta's open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model Llama, allowing its Chinese business users to develo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Alibaba&#39;s cloud computing division said it has become the first Chinese enterprise to support Meta&#39;s open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model Llama, allowing its Chinese business users to develop programs off the model.</p><p>Meta released Llama2, a commercial version of Llama, this month to provide businesses a powerful free-of-charge alternative to pricey proprietary models sold by OpenAI and Google. At the time, Meta said its preferred partner for Llama2 was Microsoft but it would also be available through other partners.</p><p>“Today, Alibaba Cloud has launched the first training and deployment solution for the entire Llama2 series in China, welcoming all developers to create customised large models on Alibaba Cloud,” Alibaba Cloud said in a statement on Tuesday published on its WeChat account.</p><p>The relationship with Meta could provide sticky customers for Alibaba&#39;s cloud business at a time it is facing intensified competition at home and is planning a stock market listing.</p><p>The U.S. has been actively looking to restrict Chinese companies&#39; access to many U.S.-developed technologies related to AI, particularly in the area of AI semiconductors. The Llama2 move would allow Alibaba to further its own AI ambitions by keeping abreast of the latest developments in the technology.</p><p>For Meta, whose Facebook social media platform has for years been banned in China along with other Western platforms, it could bring closer ties with the world&#39;s second-biggest economy.</p><p>A Meta spokesperson declined to comment. Alibaba Cloud did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p>China has been trying to catch up to the U.S. in the field of AI as Beijing encourages Chinese companies to quickly develop homegrown and &#34;controllable&#34; AI models that can rival those developed by U.S. companies. Alibaba and its peers such as Tencent Holdings have been aggressively developing their own AI models in recent months.</p><p>Similar to models that power popular chatbots like OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT and Google&#39;s Bard, Llama2 is a large machine learning model that has been trained on a vast amount of data to generate coherent and natural-sounding outputs.</p><p>According to Meta, Llama2 will be free to use for companies with fewer than 700 million monthly active users. Programs with more users will need to seek a license from Meta.</p><p>Alibaba also added that if a client wants to use Llama2 to provide services to the Chinese public, it will need to comply with Chinese laws and steer clear of practice and content that may harm the country.</p></body></html>","source":"can_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba's Cloud Unit Brings Meta's AI Model Llama to Its Clients</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba's Cloud Unit Brings Meta's AI Model Llama to Its Clients\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-26 17:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/alibabas-cloud-unit-brings-metas-ai-model-llama-its-clients-3655021><strong>CNA</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba's cloud computing division said it has become the first Chinese enterprise to support Meta's open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model Llama, allowing its Chinese business users to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/alibabas-cloud-unit-brings-metas-ai-model-llama-its-clients-3655021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/alibabas-cloud-unit-brings-metas-ai-model-llama-its-clients-3655021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2354376182","content_text":"Alibaba's cloud computing division said it has become the first Chinese enterprise to support Meta's open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model Llama, allowing its Chinese business users to develop programs off the model.Meta released Llama2, a commercial version of Llama, this month to provide businesses a powerful free-of-charge alternative to pricey proprietary models sold by OpenAI and Google. At the time, Meta said its preferred partner for Llama2 was Microsoft but it would also be available through other partners.“Today, Alibaba Cloud has launched the first training and deployment solution for the entire Llama2 series in China, welcoming all developers to create customised large models on Alibaba Cloud,” Alibaba Cloud said in a statement on Tuesday published on its WeChat account.The relationship with Meta could provide sticky customers for Alibaba's cloud business at a time it is facing intensified competition at home and is planning a stock market listing.The U.S. has been actively looking to restrict Chinese companies' access to many U.S.-developed technologies related to AI, particularly in the area of AI semiconductors. The Llama2 move would allow Alibaba to further its own AI ambitions by keeping abreast of the latest developments in the technology.For Meta, whose Facebook social media platform has for years been banned in China along with other Western platforms, it could bring closer ties with the world's second-biggest economy.A Meta spokesperson declined to comment. Alibaba Cloud did not respond to a request for comment.China has been trying to catch up to the U.S. in the field of AI as Beijing encourages Chinese companies to quickly develop homegrown and \"controllable\" AI models that can rival those developed by U.S. companies. Alibaba and its peers such as Tencent Holdings have been aggressively developing their own AI models in recent months.Similar to models that power popular chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard, Llama2 is a large machine learning model that has been trained on a vast amount of data to generate coherent and natural-sounding outputs.According to Meta, Llama2 will be free to use for companies with fewer than 700 million monthly active users. Programs with more users will need to seek a license from Meta.Alibaba also added that if a client wants to use Llama2 to provide services to the Chinese public, it will need to comply with Chinese laws and steer clear of practice and content that may harm the country.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":202105652834440,"gmtCreate":1690363035134,"gmtModify":1690363038546,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points but soft land is inline&nbsp;","listText":"Good points but soft land is inline&nbsp;","text":"Good points but soft land is inline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/202105652834440","repostId":"2354462003","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2354462003","pubTimestamp":1690385188,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2354462003?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-26 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Should Continue Hiking Past 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2354462003","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Chip Somodevilla The target is 2% inflation over time Here is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement: In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. But what is the most important part in this statement that gives the clue about future monetary policy?It's bolded - it's \"over-time\". The Fed aims to return inflation to 2% over time. What does it mean?It means that the Fed could decide to pause the interest rate hiking cycle with core CPI inflation still elevated at 4.8%, if the conditions are set for inflation to fall to 2% over time. This is essentially what the soft-landing crowd is expecting - the Fed will pause after the July hike to 5.35%, despite the fact that core inflation remains elevated at","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1250867344\">The target is 2% inflation over time</h2><p>Here is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement:</p><blockquote>In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent <strong>over time</strong>, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.</blockquote><p>But what is the most important part in this statement that gives the clue about future monetary policy? It&#39;s bolded - it&#39;s &#34;over-time&#34;. The Fed aims to return inflation to 2% over time. What does it mean?</p><p>It means that the Fed could decide to pause the interest rate hiking cycle with core CPI inflation still elevated at 4.8%, if the conditions are set for inflation to fall to 2% over time.</p><p>This is essentially what the soft-landing crowd is expecting - the Fed will pause after the July hike to 5.35%, despite the fact that core inflation remains elevated at 4.8%. Why? Because inflation is on the way down, and it will likely fall to 2% in the near future. And, of course, the economy will avoid falling into a recession because the Fed will start cutting interest rates as inflation continues falling in 2024.</p><p>But, it also means that the Fed could continue hiking interest rates even if inflation falls faster than expected - if the conditions don&#39;t favor a stable 2% inflation over time.</p><p>The June CPI report showed that core CPI increased only by 0.2% month-over-month, and 4.8% over the last 12 months. If the core CPI continues to rise by 0.2% each month, the core CPI will be at 2.5% by July 2024, which is still above the 2% target, so you would need to have a few months with 0.1% core CPI month over month to get to 2%. That&#39;s what the soft-landing scenario is expecting.</p><p>The problem with the soft-landing scenario is that the Fed&#39;s own Inflation Nowcast expects that core CPI will rise by 0.4% in July. Obviously, the conditions for core inflation to return to 2% over time are not there yet. Thus, despite the soft June CPI report, I believe the Fed has to continue hiking.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9be1802471aab595b103c745d0b12c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_2676259712\">But what are the necessary conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time?</h2><p>The price is a function of supply and demand, it&#39;s a very simple economic concept. So, generally, there has to be a supply/demand balance economy wide. Specifically, there has to be an ample supply of 1) labor and 2) input materials, for production to meet the underlying demand.</p><p>The US currently has a major labor shortage with full employment (unemployment rate at 3.6%) and nearly 10M job openings. Obviously, the supply of labor is limited, which is causing wage price inflation, and translating into a service price inflation.</p><p>The Fed simply cannot stop hiking as long as there is a labor shortage, because the risk is that core inflation would continue rising over time.</p><p>So, what&#39;s causing the labor shortage? On the supply side, one of the main issues is demographics - the large segment of population (baby boomers) is exiting the labor force and retiring. Second, due to the unfolding trend of deglobalization, the US has stricter immigration policy which is slowing the labor force growth. On the demand side, and also due to deglobalization, the US is reshoring some jobs back home from China. The Fed cannot control the trends in demographics and deglobalization issues, and these structural longer-term trends. Thus, the labor market conditions will be out of balance for the foreseeable future.</p><p>The unfolding trend of deglobalization is also creating the risk for commodity price spikes, and the shortage of key input materials. These risks are even more extreme due to the fact that deglobalization is associated with geopolitical tensions, which increase the risk of cold wars, proxy wars, and direct military confrontations between the main global powers.</p><p>For example, Russia exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement, which pushed the price of wheat limit up in the futures market last week. Saudi Arabia is cutting the oil supplies to boost the price of oil. China imposed export controls on two strategic raw materials that are critical to the global chipmaking industry. These events are part of the broader trend which is likely to persist in the foreseeable future.</p><p>Obviously, these are not conditions where inflation is expected to fall to 2% over time. In fact, it&#39;s reasonable to conclude that we are currently still in a high inflationary environment.</p><h2 id=\"id_2678714004\">What should the Fed do?</h2><p>The Fed only directly controls the demand side of the equation, and the supply side problems can only be countered with declining demand to restore price stability. That means a recession.</p><p>Specifically, that means that the Fed needs to keep tightening monetary policy until the unemployment rate increases. The Fed has set the target of 4.1% unemployment rate for 2023 and 4.5% for 2024.</p><p>The Fed helped invert the yield curve, which is expected to cause credit tightness, which is expected to cause less investment, and thus, higher unemployment. So, now we are in the process of waiting for the lagged effects of this monetary policy transmission to the real economy. We are waiting for the clear signs of a recession.</p><p>The Fed decided to skip hiking interest rates in June to evaluate these lagged effects, and apparently decided to continue increasing interest rates at a much slower pace. Thus, the Fed is set to increase interest rates at the July meeting, and indicated that an additional 25bpt hike might be required in fall.</p><p>The lagged effects are already evident as the Redbook weekly retail sales are turning negative year over year, as well as industrial production. The labor market is showing some cracks with the (volatile) trend of higher weekly claims, but this is still insufficient.</p><p>The Fed is actually a very powerful institution with a broad geopolitical reach. The only way to really ensure a stable inflation rate over time is to directly address the underlying trends, particularly with the respect to deglobalization.</p><p>Specifically, I think the Fed should continue hiking well past 6% to induce a deep recession in the US, which would 1) crash oil price and weaken the oil revenue dependent Russia and other adversaries, 2) seriously weaken the export dependent Chinese economy.</p><p>Thus, by overtightening, the Fed would directly address the demand side of the equation via a higher unemployment rate, and indirectly affect the supply side by inducing economic barriers to deglobalization.</p><p>This is exactly what the Fed did in 1970s and especially in the early 1980s, when it hiked well above the core PCE inflation. Here is the chart, it&#39;s obvious that the current level of Federal Funds rate (red line) is not high enough in my opinion:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d60a7769c56493157af148c045b0f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"270\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>Now considering the Taylor Rule for determining the appropriate level for Federal Funds rate, the different scenarios suggest that the Federal Funds rate should be somewhere between 6.5% and 7.5%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d880c43218ed20ce7dde7739e111e909\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\"/></p><p>Atlanta Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_221054489\">What will the Fed do?</h2><p>The Fed is still behind based on the Taylor rule. We are in a high-inflationary environment characterized by a demographic time-bomb, de-globalization, a real war, a brewing war. These are the facts.</p><p>But the Fed is currently a conflicted institution in my view, where the major hawk Bullard actually quit the FOMC and the Fed, and is apparently being replaced by a dove.</p><p>The Fed has decided to take it slowly and to be data dependent, hoping that something will change over time. The Fed might be afraid of overtightening, but I think that&#39;s exactly what the Fed should do - overtighten. The Fed needs to create the conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time, no other way around it.</p><p>Alternatively, and this is becoming a baseline scenario on Wall Street, the Fed has to abandon the 2% target.</p><h2 id=\"id_3540477570\">Implications</h2><p>The stock market (SP500) has been rising since October 2022 in expectation of the Fed pivot - pause and a cut. These expectations are based on the recent memory of the 2000-2020 period, during which the US was in a low inflation environment. Actually, it was more of a disinflationary or even deflationary environment caused by globalization - abundant global labor force, cheap imports, etc.</p><p>But things have changed, we are in a high-inflationary environment now - just look at the headlines. The Fed has the mandate of 2% inflation over time, and that means the Fed will have no choice but to overtighten.</p><p>A soft-landing is a hope, and the market can run on a hope for some time. But, I believe the reality will set in. In fact, even the current earnings season for Q2 2023 has seen contracting margins, declining sales, and the third quarter of lower earnings.</p><p>The earnings projections are that earnings will start growing in Q4 2023, and over the entire 2024. That&#39;s based on a soft-landing scenario, so based on hope in my opinion. The trend of lower sales, lower margins, and lower earning is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, as the lagged effects of the recent monetary policy tightening intensify, while inflation continues to be elevated, forcing the Fed to continue to tighten the monetary policy likely past 6%.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Should Continue Hiking Past 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Should Continue Hiking Past 6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-26 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619601-the-fed-should-continue-hiking-past-6-percent><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The target is 2% inflation over timeHere is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement:In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619601-the-fed-should-continue-hiking-past-6-percent\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619601-the-fed-should-continue-hiking-past-6-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2354462003","content_text":"The target is 2% inflation over timeHere is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement:In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.But what is the most important part in this statement that gives the clue about future monetary policy? It's bolded - it's \"over-time\". The Fed aims to return inflation to 2% over time. What does it mean?It means that the Fed could decide to pause the interest rate hiking cycle with core CPI inflation still elevated at 4.8%, if the conditions are set for inflation to fall to 2% over time.This is essentially what the soft-landing crowd is expecting - the Fed will pause after the July hike to 5.35%, despite the fact that core inflation remains elevated at 4.8%. Why? Because inflation is on the way down, and it will likely fall to 2% in the near future. And, of course, the economy will avoid falling into a recession because the Fed will start cutting interest rates as inflation continues falling in 2024.But, it also means that the Fed could continue hiking interest rates even if inflation falls faster than expected - if the conditions don't favor a stable 2% inflation over time.The June CPI report showed that core CPI increased only by 0.2% month-over-month, and 4.8% over the last 12 months. If the core CPI continues to rise by 0.2% each month, the core CPI will be at 2.5% by July 2024, which is still above the 2% target, so you would need to have a few months with 0.1% core CPI month over month to get to 2%. That's what the soft-landing scenario is expecting.The problem with the soft-landing scenario is that the Fed's own Inflation Nowcast expects that core CPI will rise by 0.4% in July. Obviously, the conditions for core inflation to return to 2% over time are not there yet. Thus, despite the soft June CPI report, I believe the Fed has to continue hiking.Cleveland FedBut what are the necessary conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time?The price is a function of supply and demand, it's a very simple economic concept. So, generally, there has to be a supply/demand balance economy wide. Specifically, there has to be an ample supply of 1) labor and 2) input materials, for production to meet the underlying demand.The US currently has a major labor shortage with full employment (unemployment rate at 3.6%) and nearly 10M job openings. Obviously, the supply of labor is limited, which is causing wage price inflation, and translating into a service price inflation.The Fed simply cannot stop hiking as long as there is a labor shortage, because the risk is that core inflation would continue rising over time.So, what's causing the labor shortage? On the supply side, one of the main issues is demographics - the large segment of population (baby boomers) is exiting the labor force and retiring. Second, due to the unfolding trend of deglobalization, the US has stricter immigration policy which is slowing the labor force growth. On the demand side, and also due to deglobalization, the US is reshoring some jobs back home from China. The Fed cannot control the trends in demographics and deglobalization issues, and these structural longer-term trends. Thus, the labor market conditions will be out of balance for the foreseeable future.The unfolding trend of deglobalization is also creating the risk for commodity price spikes, and the shortage of key input materials. These risks are even more extreme due to the fact that deglobalization is associated with geopolitical tensions, which increase the risk of cold wars, proxy wars, and direct military confrontations between the main global powers.For example, Russia exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement, which pushed the price of wheat limit up in the futures market last week. Saudi Arabia is cutting the oil supplies to boost the price of oil. China imposed export controls on two strategic raw materials that are critical to the global chipmaking industry. These events are part of the broader trend which is likely to persist in the foreseeable future.Obviously, these are not conditions where inflation is expected to fall to 2% over time. In fact, it's reasonable to conclude that we are currently still in a high inflationary environment.What should the Fed do?The Fed only directly controls the demand side of the equation, and the supply side problems can only be countered with declining demand to restore price stability. That means a recession.Specifically, that means that the Fed needs to keep tightening monetary policy until the unemployment rate increases. The Fed has set the target of 4.1% unemployment rate for 2023 and 4.5% for 2024.The Fed helped invert the yield curve, which is expected to cause credit tightness, which is expected to cause less investment, and thus, higher unemployment. So, now we are in the process of waiting for the lagged effects of this monetary policy transmission to the real economy. We are waiting for the clear signs of a recession.The Fed decided to skip hiking interest rates in June to evaluate these lagged effects, and apparently decided to continue increasing interest rates at a much slower pace. Thus, the Fed is set to increase interest rates at the July meeting, and indicated that an additional 25bpt hike might be required in fall.The lagged effects are already evident as the Redbook weekly retail sales are turning negative year over year, as well as industrial production. The labor market is showing some cracks with the (volatile) trend of higher weekly claims, but this is still insufficient.The Fed is actually a very powerful institution with a broad geopolitical reach. The only way to really ensure a stable inflation rate over time is to directly address the underlying trends, particularly with the respect to deglobalization.Specifically, I think the Fed should continue hiking well past 6% to induce a deep recession in the US, which would 1) crash oil price and weaken the oil revenue dependent Russia and other adversaries, 2) seriously weaken the export dependent Chinese economy.Thus, by overtightening, the Fed would directly address the demand side of the equation via a higher unemployment rate, and indirectly affect the supply side by inducing economic barriers to deglobalization.This is exactly what the Fed did in 1970s and especially in the early 1980s, when it hiked well above the core PCE inflation. Here is the chart, it's obvious that the current level of Federal Funds rate (red line) is not high enough in my opinion:FREDNow considering the Taylor Rule for determining the appropriate level for Federal Funds rate, the different scenarios suggest that the Federal Funds rate should be somewhere between 6.5% and 7.5%.Atlanta FedWhat will the Fed do?The Fed is still behind based on the Taylor rule. We are in a high-inflationary environment characterized by a demographic time-bomb, de-globalization, a real war, a brewing war. These are the facts.But the Fed is currently a conflicted institution in my view, where the major hawk Bullard actually quit the FOMC and the Fed, and is apparently being replaced by a dove.The Fed has decided to take it slowly and to be data dependent, hoping that something will change over time. The Fed might be afraid of overtightening, but I think that's exactly what the Fed should do - overtighten. The Fed needs to create the conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time, no other way around it.Alternatively, and this is becoming a baseline scenario on Wall Street, the Fed has to abandon the 2% target.ImplicationsThe stock market (SP500) has been rising since October 2022 in expectation of the Fed pivot - pause and a cut. These expectations are based on the recent memory of the 2000-2020 period, during which the US was in a low inflation environment. Actually, it was more of a disinflationary or even deflationary environment caused by globalization - abundant global labor force, cheap imports, etc.But things have changed, we are in a high-inflationary environment now - just look at the headlines. The Fed has the mandate of 2% inflation over time, and that means the Fed will have no choice but to overtighten.A soft-landing is a hope, and the market can run on a hope for some time. But, I believe the reality will set in. In fact, even the current earnings season for Q2 2023 has seen contracting margins, declining sales, and the third quarter of lower earnings.The earnings projections are that earnings will start growing in Q4 2023, and over the entire 2024. That's based on a soft-landing scenario, so based on hope in my opinion. The trend of lower sales, lower margins, and lower earning is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, as the lagged effects of the recent monetary policy tightening intensify, while inflation continues to be elevated, forcing the Fed to continue to tighten the monetary policy likely past 6%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":201755199627456,"gmtCreate":1690265042929,"gmtModify":1690265478693,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Screw Labour!!!&nbsp;","listText":"Screw Labour!!!&nbsp;","text":"Screw Labour!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/201755199627456","repostId":"1138941722","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193036948541552,"gmtCreate":1688157762699,"gmtModify":1688157766981,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😎","listText":"😎","text":"😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193036948541552","repostId":"1178382847","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178382847","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1688128996,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178382847?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-30 20:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pre-Bell｜Futures Extended Gains After May Inflation Data; Apple’s Market Cap Passes $3 Trillion in Early Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178382847","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday, the final trading session of the second quarter, ahead of key inflation data that could influence investor expectations on how long the Federal Reserve will ma","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock index futures extended gains on Friday after data showed a closely watched measure of inflation cooled in May, offering fresh evidence of easing price pressures due to the Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive interest rate hikes.</p><p>A Commerce Department report showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, considered to be the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.8% in May, on an annual basis from 4.3% last month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 4.6% in May on an annual basis from 4.7% in the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters expected core rates to remain steady at 4.7%.</p><h2>Market Snapshot</h2><p>At 8:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 146 points, or 0.42%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 26.5 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 140.25 points, or 0.93%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e4cbed519816346b8645514491a2a0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"133\"/></p><h2>Pre-Market Movers</h2><p>Nike — Shares dropped nearly 3% following the sports apparel giant reported an earnings miss for the first time in three years. Nike’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings were 66 cents per share, versus the 67 cents consensus estimate, per Refinitiv. However, revenue topped expectations.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple — Apple’s market cap topped $3 trillion during premarket trading on Friday, passing the $190.73 share price required to hit the milestone. Apple was the first company to hit a $3 trillion market cap during intraday trading in Jan. 2022, but it failed to close at that level. It has another shot to do that on Friday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Carnival — Shares of the cruise line rose 3% in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded Carnival to buy from hold. Jefferies cited changes during the first year new CEO Josh Weinstein’s tenure and improving leverage as reasons to be optimistic about the stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Savers Value Village — Shares slipped 2% in the premarket, after jumping 27% during their first day of trading Thursday. The largest for-profit thrift operator in the U.S. priced shares at $18 and closed at $22.91.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Dominion Energy — Shares fell nearly 2% after the company revised its second-quarter operating earnings guidance range to 44 cents to 50 cents a share, down from 58 cents to 68 cents per share. Dominion Energy blamed historically mild weather and unplanned outages at the Millstone Power Station.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Constellation Brands — The Corona and Pacifico owner slipped 1.6% despite reporting an earnings beat. First-quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.91, topping the $2.83 expected from analysts, per StreetAccount. Revenue was $2.52 billion, versus the $2.47 billion expected.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Freyr Battery — The stock popped another 5% in premarket trading, following an 11% gain on Thursday. The company was upgraded to overweight from equal weight by Morgan Stanley on Thursday.</p><h2>Market News</h2><p><strong>Jerome Powell Says Next Phase of Rate Rises Will Be Harder to Predict</strong></p><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it made sense to continue slowing the pace of interest rate increases as officials try to find the level that will restrain economic activity and inflation without causing unnecessary weakness.</p><p>The Fed raised interest rates most recently in May to a range between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high. Powell has signaled that officials are prepared to raise rates at the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting after holding them steady at their meeting earlier this month.</p><p><strong>Volkswagen in Talks With Tesla to Adopt Its Charging Standard</strong></p><p>Volkswagen is in talks with Tesla to adopt its North American Charging Standard (NACS), joining a slew of automakers and charging equipment makers that are choosing the technology.</p><p>&#34;Volkswagen Group and its brands are currently evaluating the implementation of the Tesla North American Charging Standard (NACS) for its North American customers,&#34; the German automaker said.</p><p><strong>AMC Backstabbed Retail Investors, Settlement Opponent Tells Court</strong></p><p>AMC has said it is burning cash at an unsustainable rate and cautioned that an inability to raise capital could force the company into bankruptcy.</p><p>Rose Izzo, a Delaware resident who first invested in AMC in 2021, objected to the deal.</p><p><strong>Dutch curb chip equipment exports amid US pressure</strong></p><p>The Dutch government on Friday announced new rules restricting exports of certain advanced semiconductor equipment, a move that comes amid U.S. pressure on its allies to curb sales of high-tech components to China.</p><p>&#34;We have taken this step in the interest of our national security&#34; said Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher, adding such equipment may have military applications.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-Bell｜Futures Extended Gains After May Inflation Data; Apple’s Market Cap Passes $3 Trillion in Early Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-Bell｜Futures Extended Gains After May Inflation Data; Apple’s Market Cap Passes $3 Trillion in Early Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-06-30 20:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock index futures extended gains on Friday after data showed a closely watched measure of inflation cooled in May, offering fresh evidence of easing price pressures due to the Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive interest rate hikes.</p><p>A Commerce Department report showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, considered to be the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.8% in May, on an annual basis from 4.3% last month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 4.6% in May on an annual basis from 4.7% in the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters expected core rates to remain steady at 4.7%.</p><h2>Market Snapshot</h2><p>At 8:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 146 points, or 0.42%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 26.5 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 140.25 points, or 0.93%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e4cbed519816346b8645514491a2a0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"133\"/></p><h2>Pre-Market Movers</h2><p>Nike — Shares dropped nearly 3% following the sports apparel giant reported an earnings miss for the first time in three years. Nike’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings were 66 cents per share, versus the 67 cents consensus estimate, per Refinitiv. However, revenue topped expectations.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple — Apple’s market cap topped $3 trillion during premarket trading on Friday, passing the $190.73 share price required to hit the milestone. Apple was the first company to hit a $3 trillion market cap during intraday trading in Jan. 2022, but it failed to close at that level. It has another shot to do that on Friday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Carnival — Shares of the cruise line rose 3% in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded Carnival to buy from hold. Jefferies cited changes during the first year new CEO Josh Weinstein’s tenure and improving leverage as reasons to be optimistic about the stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Savers Value Village — Shares slipped 2% in the premarket, after jumping 27% during their first day of trading Thursday. The largest for-profit thrift operator in the U.S. priced shares at $18 and closed at $22.91.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Dominion Energy — Shares fell nearly 2% after the company revised its second-quarter operating earnings guidance range to 44 cents to 50 cents a share, down from 58 cents to 68 cents per share. Dominion Energy blamed historically mild weather and unplanned outages at the Millstone Power Station.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Constellation Brands — The Corona and Pacifico owner slipped 1.6% despite reporting an earnings beat. First-quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.91, topping the $2.83 expected from analysts, per StreetAccount. Revenue was $2.52 billion, versus the $2.47 billion expected.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Freyr Battery — The stock popped another 5% in premarket trading, following an 11% gain on Thursday. The company was upgraded to overweight from equal weight by Morgan Stanley on Thursday.</p><h2>Market News</h2><p><strong>Jerome Powell Says Next Phase of Rate Rises Will Be Harder to Predict</strong></p><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it made sense to continue slowing the pace of interest rate increases as officials try to find the level that will restrain economic activity and inflation without causing unnecessary weakness.</p><p>The Fed raised interest rates most recently in May to a range between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high. Powell has signaled that officials are prepared to raise rates at the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting after holding them steady at their meeting earlier this month.</p><p><strong>Volkswagen in Talks With Tesla to Adopt Its Charging Standard</strong></p><p>Volkswagen is in talks with Tesla to adopt its North American Charging Standard (NACS), joining a slew of automakers and charging equipment makers that are choosing the technology.</p><p>&#34;Volkswagen Group and its brands are currently evaluating the implementation of the Tesla North American Charging Standard (NACS) for its North American customers,&#34; the German automaker said.</p><p><strong>AMC Backstabbed Retail Investors, Settlement Opponent Tells Court</strong></p><p>AMC has said it is burning cash at an unsustainable rate and cautioned that an inability to raise capital could force the company into bankruptcy.</p><p>Rose Izzo, a Delaware resident who first invested in AMC in 2021, objected to the deal.</p><p><strong>Dutch curb chip equipment exports amid US pressure</strong></p><p>The Dutch government on Friday announced new rules restricting exports of certain advanced semiconductor equipment, a move that comes amid U.S. pressure on its allies to curb sales of high-tech components to China.</p><p>&#34;We have taken this step in the interest of our national security&#34; said Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher, adding such equipment may have military applications.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178382847","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures extended gains on Friday after data showed a closely watched measure of inflation cooled in May, offering fresh evidence of easing price pressures due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes.A Commerce Department report showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, considered to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.8% in May, on an annual basis from 4.3% last month.Excluding volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 4.6% in May on an annual basis from 4.7% in the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters expected core rates to remain steady at 4.7%.Market SnapshotAt 8:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 146 points, or 0.42%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 26.5 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 140.25 points, or 0.93%.Pre-Market MoversNike — Shares dropped nearly 3% following the sports apparel giant reported an earnings miss for the first time in three years. Nike’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings were 66 cents per share, versus the 67 cents consensus estimate, per Refinitiv. However, revenue topped expectations.Apple — Apple’s market cap topped $3 trillion during premarket trading on Friday, passing the $190.73 share price required to hit the milestone. Apple was the first company to hit a $3 trillion market cap during intraday trading in Jan. 2022, but it failed to close at that level. It has another shot to do that on Friday.Carnival — Shares of the cruise line rose 3% in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded Carnival to buy from hold. Jefferies cited changes during the first year new CEO Josh Weinstein’s tenure and improving leverage as reasons to be optimistic about the stock.Savers Value Village — Shares slipped 2% in the premarket, after jumping 27% during their first day of trading Thursday. The largest for-profit thrift operator in the U.S. priced shares at $18 and closed at $22.91.Dominion Energy — Shares fell nearly 2% after the company revised its second-quarter operating earnings guidance range to 44 cents to 50 cents a share, down from 58 cents to 68 cents per share. Dominion Energy blamed historically mild weather and unplanned outages at the Millstone Power Station.Constellation Brands — The Corona and Pacifico owner slipped 1.6% despite reporting an earnings beat. First-quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.91, topping the $2.83 expected from analysts, per StreetAccount. Revenue was $2.52 billion, versus the $2.47 billion expected.Freyr Battery — The stock popped another 5% in premarket trading, following an 11% gain on Thursday. The company was upgraded to overweight from equal weight by Morgan Stanley on Thursday.Market NewsJerome Powell Says Next Phase of Rate Rises Will Be Harder to PredictFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it made sense to continue slowing the pace of interest rate increases as officials try to find the level that will restrain economic activity and inflation without causing unnecessary weakness.The Fed raised interest rates most recently in May to a range between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high. Powell has signaled that officials are prepared to raise rates at the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting after holding them steady at their meeting earlier this month.Volkswagen in Talks With Tesla to Adopt Its Charging StandardVolkswagen is in talks with Tesla to adopt its North American Charging Standard (NACS), joining a slew of automakers and charging equipment makers that are choosing the technology.\"Volkswagen Group and its brands are currently evaluating the implementation of the Tesla North American Charging Standard (NACS) for its North American customers,\" the German automaker said.AMC Backstabbed Retail Investors, Settlement Opponent Tells CourtAMC has said it is burning cash at an unsustainable rate and cautioned that an inability to raise capital could force the company into bankruptcy.Rose Izzo, a Delaware resident who first invested in AMC in 2021, objected to the deal.Dutch curb chip equipment exports amid US pressureThe Dutch government on Friday announced new rules restricting exports of certain advanced semiconductor equipment, a move that comes amid U.S. pressure on its allies to curb sales of high-tech components to China.\"We have taken this step in the interest of our national security\" said Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher, adding such equipment may have military applications.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192806494736552,"gmtCreate":1688101548226,"gmtModify":1688101551485,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8183de1345d4b2e5ad7678dd56c46dcb","width":"1170","height":"1785"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192806494736552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192758612263072,"gmtCreate":1688089738466,"gmtModify":1688089742082,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Whoop whoop!&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Whoop whoop!&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Whoop whoop! [Cool]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea4be5e001e26ada983d11cc78ecb181","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192758612263072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192529091137688,"gmtCreate":1688033818690,"gmtModify":1688034399315,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"DCA&nbsp;","listText":"DCA&nbsp;","text":"DCA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192529091137688","repostId":"2346845290","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2346845290","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1688027878,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2346845290?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-29 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"July Can Be a Top Month for Stocks. Here’s What It Will Take for the Market to Rally Again This Summer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2346845290","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"July ranks as a top month for the S&P 500 over the past 10 years, with a 3.3% average gain, according to the Carson GroupJuly has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>July ranks as a top month for the S&amp;P 500 over the past 10 years, with a 3.3% average gain, according to the Carson Group</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dc0d0d2ff25c603de836bbc848a3dd\" alt=\"July has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade.\" title=\"July has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"/><span>July has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Conventional investing wisdom dictates that the summer months are a sleepy time for markets. But that has started to change over the past decade.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">July has actually been the best month for U.S. stock performance during this period, with the S&amp;P 500 index rising 3.3% on average between 2012 and 2022, according to an analysis from Carson Group. That is an improvement over the average July performance since 1950, which saw the index gaining 1.3% on average.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1e6e4f54d83ff863a383f588516f7e\" alt=\"CARSON GROUP\" title=\"CARSON GROUP\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"291\"/><span>CARSON GROUP</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Last July was a notable example, with the S&amp;P 500 advancing more than 9%, according to FactSet data, as the market rallied off its June lows on expectations that the Federal Reserve might pivot back to cutting rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While hoped-for Fed rate cuts never materialized, U.S. stocks have continued to climb in 2023. To be sure, much of the rally has been driven by megacap technology stocks, including those of Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp.. But the S&amp;P 500 has risen 14% date in 2023, according to FactSet data, an impressive rebound after stocks last year logged their biggest pullback since 2008.</p><p>To be sure, there have been signs that the rally has started to broaden recently, with small caps in the Russell 2000 index and other unloved sectors of the market advancing over the past month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But a big question is whether markets can continue to thrive this summer. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick expects they will, even though he has been bullish on stocks since the S&amp;P 500 hit its most recent 52-week low back on Oct. 12, according to FactSet data.</p><p>Detrick pointed out that the last few summers have seen some searing rallies. July also has been an important counterpoint to the typically sleepy summer months. He also said he thinks that, as long as the U.S. economy avoids a recession, stocks should move higher.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We’re optimistic with a continued improving economy that this rally might have legs still,” Detrick said in a phone interview with MarketWatch.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Detrick cited the latest batch of official U.S. data released Tuesday as evidence that the U.S. economy remains healthy, as a key gauge of consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 17 months. Meanwhile, orders for manufactured U.S. goods jumped 1.7% in May and rose for the third month in a row, data show.</p><p>If he had to guess at why July has been such a boon for stock valuations lately, Detrick said corporate earnings have likely been a major factor. Typically, the largest U.S. companies will report their corporate earnings for the second quarter before the end of July.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Historically, S&amp;P 500 companies’ reported earnings overshoot Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet’s John Butters, the company’s senior earnings analyst. However, there have been some signs of trouble heading into earnings season. Analysts have lowered earnings estimates for S&amp;P 500 companies for the second quarter, as the bottom-up earnings-per-share estimate for the S&amp;P 500 has fallen 2.3%, since March 31.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Other analysts have noted that equity valuations are again beginning to look stretched. Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital, pointed to the S&amp;P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to FactSet, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500 for the coming 12 months has risen to 18.8, which is above both the five-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 17.4.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Farr is also worried about what might happen to stocks if the tide of liquidity emanating from the Federal Reserve and the banking system were to ebb. “There is still too much money in the system, and the Fed knows it. It is all about liquidity,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">U.S. stocks mixed on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 rising 1.2%, lifting it by 14% for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% Tuesday and 29.5% in 2023. The lagging Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.6% Tuesday and 2.4% on the year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>July Can Be a Top Month for Stocks. Here’s What It Will Take for the Market to Rally Again This Summer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJuly Can Be a Top Month for Stocks. Here’s What It Will Take for the Market to Rally Again This Summer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-06-29 16:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>July ranks as a top month for the S&amp;P 500 over the past 10 years, with a 3.3% average gain, according to the Carson Group</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dc0d0d2ff25c603de836bbc848a3dd\" alt=\"July has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade.\" title=\"July has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"/><span>July has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Conventional investing wisdom dictates that the summer months are a sleepy time for markets. But that has started to change over the past decade.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">July has actually been the best month for U.S. stock performance during this period, with the S&amp;P 500 index rising 3.3% on average between 2012 and 2022, according to an analysis from Carson Group. That is an improvement over the average July performance since 1950, which saw the index gaining 1.3% on average.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1e6e4f54d83ff863a383f588516f7e\" alt=\"CARSON GROUP\" title=\"CARSON GROUP\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"291\"/><span>CARSON GROUP</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Last July was a notable example, with the S&amp;P 500 advancing more than 9%, according to FactSet data, as the market rallied off its June lows on expectations that the Federal Reserve might pivot back to cutting rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While hoped-for Fed rate cuts never materialized, U.S. stocks have continued to climb in 2023. To be sure, much of the rally has been driven by megacap technology stocks, including those of Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp.. But the S&amp;P 500 has risen 14% date in 2023, according to FactSet data, an impressive rebound after stocks last year logged their biggest pullback since 2008.</p><p>To be sure, there have been signs that the rally has started to broaden recently, with small caps in the Russell 2000 index and other unloved sectors of the market advancing over the past month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But a big question is whether markets can continue to thrive this summer. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick expects they will, even though he has been bullish on stocks since the S&amp;P 500 hit its most recent 52-week low back on Oct. 12, according to FactSet data.</p><p>Detrick pointed out that the last few summers have seen some searing rallies. July also has been an important counterpoint to the typically sleepy summer months. He also said he thinks that, as long as the U.S. economy avoids a recession, stocks should move higher.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We’re optimistic with a continued improving economy that this rally might have legs still,” Detrick said in a phone interview with MarketWatch.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Detrick cited the latest batch of official U.S. data released Tuesday as evidence that the U.S. economy remains healthy, as a key gauge of consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 17 months. Meanwhile, orders for manufactured U.S. goods jumped 1.7% in May and rose for the third month in a row, data show.</p><p>If he had to guess at why July has been such a boon for stock valuations lately, Detrick said corporate earnings have likely been a major factor. Typically, the largest U.S. companies will report their corporate earnings for the second quarter before the end of July.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Historically, S&amp;P 500 companies’ reported earnings overshoot Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet’s John Butters, the company’s senior earnings analyst. However, there have been some signs of trouble heading into earnings season. Analysts have lowered earnings estimates for S&amp;P 500 companies for the second quarter, as the bottom-up earnings-per-share estimate for the S&amp;P 500 has fallen 2.3%, since March 31.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Other analysts have noted that equity valuations are again beginning to look stretched. Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital, pointed to the S&amp;P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to FactSet, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500 for the coming 12 months has risen to 18.8, which is above both the five-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 17.4.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Farr is also worried about what might happen to stocks if the tide of liquidity emanating from the Federal Reserve and the banking system were to ebb. “There is still too much money in the system, and the Fed knows it. It is all about liquidity,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">U.S. stocks mixed on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 rising 1.2%, lifting it by 14% for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% Tuesday and 29.5% in 2023. The lagging Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.6% Tuesday and 2.4% on the year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/july-can-be-a-top-month-for-stocks-heres-what-it-will-take-for-the-market-to-rally-again-this-summer-9b3c3ef5?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2346845290","content_text":"July ranks as a top month for the S&P 500 over the past 10 years, with a 3.3% average gain, according to the Carson GroupJuly has seen the strongest average performance for stocks over the last decade.Conventional investing wisdom dictates that the summer months are a sleepy time for markets. But that has started to change over the past decade.July has actually been the best month for U.S. stock performance during this period, with the S&P 500 index rising 3.3% on average between 2012 and 2022, according to an analysis from Carson Group. That is an improvement over the average July performance since 1950, which saw the index gaining 1.3% on average.CARSON GROUPLast July was a notable example, with the S&P 500 advancing more than 9%, according to FactSet data, as the market rallied off its June lows on expectations that the Federal Reserve might pivot back to cutting rates.While hoped-for Fed rate cuts never materialized, U.S. stocks have continued to climb in 2023. To be sure, much of the rally has been driven by megacap technology stocks, including those of Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp.. But the S&P 500 has risen 14% date in 2023, according to FactSet data, an impressive rebound after stocks last year logged their biggest pullback since 2008.To be sure, there have been signs that the rally has started to broaden recently, with small caps in the Russell 2000 index and other unloved sectors of the market advancing over the past month.But a big question is whether markets can continue to thrive this summer. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick expects they will, even though he has been bullish on stocks since the S&P 500 hit its most recent 52-week low back on Oct. 12, according to FactSet data.Detrick pointed out that the last few summers have seen some searing rallies. July also has been an important counterpoint to the typically sleepy summer months. He also said he thinks that, as long as the U.S. economy avoids a recession, stocks should move higher.“We’re optimistic with a continued improving economy that this rally might have legs still,” Detrick said in a phone interview with MarketWatch.Detrick cited the latest batch of official U.S. data released Tuesday as evidence that the U.S. economy remains healthy, as a key gauge of consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 17 months. Meanwhile, orders for manufactured U.S. goods jumped 1.7% in May and rose for the third month in a row, data show.If he had to guess at why July has been such a boon for stock valuations lately, Detrick said corporate earnings have likely been a major factor. Typically, the largest U.S. companies will report their corporate earnings for the second quarter before the end of July.Historically, S&P 500 companies’ reported earnings overshoot Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet’s John Butters, the company’s senior earnings analyst. However, there have been some signs of trouble heading into earnings season. Analysts have lowered earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter, as the bottom-up earnings-per-share estimate for the S&P 500 has fallen 2.3%, since March 31.Other analysts have noted that equity valuations are again beginning to look stretched. Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital, pointed to the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio.According to FactSet, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 for the coming 12 months has risen to 18.8, which is above both the five-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 17.4.Farr is also worried about what might happen to stocks if the tide of liquidity emanating from the Federal Reserve and the banking system were to ebb. “There is still too much money in the system, and the Fed knows it. It is all about liquidity,” he said.U.S. stocks mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2%, lifting it by 14% for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7% Tuesday and 29.5% in 2023. The lagging Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.6% Tuesday and 2.4% on the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192533191266496,"gmtCreate":1688030834814,"gmtModify":1688030859317,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MTEK\">$Maris Tech Ltd.(MTEK)$&nbsp;</a>Buy &amp; Hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MTEK\">$Maris Tech Ltd.(MTEK)$&nbsp;</a>Buy &amp; Hold","text":"$Maris Tech Ltd.(MTEK)$ Buy & Hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192533191266496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192498359406840,"gmtCreate":1688027173073,"gmtModify":1688030847168,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578381580442229","authorIdStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go!! ❤️‍🔥","listText":"Let's go!! ❤️‍🔥","text":"Let's go!! ❤️‍🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192498359406840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":202105652834440,"gmtCreate":1690363035134,"gmtModify":1690363038546,"author":{"id":"3578381580442229","authorId":"3578381580442229","name":"ULTRATRADES","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/289e6bd5e0a7de896ae3452a0d875041","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578381580442229","idStr":"3578381580442229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points but soft land is inline&nbsp;","listText":"Good points but soft land is inline&nbsp;","text":"Good points but soft land is inline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/202105652834440","repostId":"2354462003","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2354462003","pubTimestamp":1690385188,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2354462003?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-26 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Should Continue Hiking Past 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2354462003","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Chip Somodevilla The target is 2% inflation over time Here is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement: In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. But what is the most important part in this statement that gives the clue about future monetary policy?It's bolded - it's \"over-time\". The Fed aims to return inflation to 2% over time. What does it mean?It means that the Fed could decide to pause the interest rate hiking cycle with core CPI inflation still elevated at 4.8%, if the conditions are set for inflation to fall to 2% over time. This is essentially what the soft-landing crowd is expecting - the Fed will pause after the July hike to 5.35%, despite the fact that core inflation remains elevated at","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1250867344\">The target is 2% inflation over time</h2><p>Here is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement:</p><blockquote>In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent <strong>over time</strong>, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.</blockquote><p>But what is the most important part in this statement that gives the clue about future monetary policy? It&#39;s bolded - it&#39;s &#34;over-time&#34;. The Fed aims to return inflation to 2% over time. What does it mean?</p><p>It means that the Fed could decide to pause the interest rate hiking cycle with core CPI inflation still elevated at 4.8%, if the conditions are set for inflation to fall to 2% over time.</p><p>This is essentially what the soft-landing crowd is expecting - the Fed will pause after the July hike to 5.35%, despite the fact that core inflation remains elevated at 4.8%. Why? Because inflation is on the way down, and it will likely fall to 2% in the near future. And, of course, the economy will avoid falling into a recession because the Fed will start cutting interest rates as inflation continues falling in 2024.</p><p>But, it also means that the Fed could continue hiking interest rates even if inflation falls faster than expected - if the conditions don&#39;t favor a stable 2% inflation over time.</p><p>The June CPI report showed that core CPI increased only by 0.2% month-over-month, and 4.8% over the last 12 months. If the core CPI continues to rise by 0.2% each month, the core CPI will be at 2.5% by July 2024, which is still above the 2% target, so you would need to have a few months with 0.1% core CPI month over month to get to 2%. That&#39;s what the soft-landing scenario is expecting.</p><p>The problem with the soft-landing scenario is that the Fed&#39;s own Inflation Nowcast expects that core CPI will rise by 0.4% in July. Obviously, the conditions for core inflation to return to 2% over time are not there yet. Thus, despite the soft June CPI report, I believe the Fed has to continue hiking.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9be1802471aab595b103c745d0b12c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_2676259712\">But what are the necessary conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time?</h2><p>The price is a function of supply and demand, it&#39;s a very simple economic concept. So, generally, there has to be a supply/demand balance economy wide. Specifically, there has to be an ample supply of 1) labor and 2) input materials, for production to meet the underlying demand.</p><p>The US currently has a major labor shortage with full employment (unemployment rate at 3.6%) and nearly 10M job openings. Obviously, the supply of labor is limited, which is causing wage price inflation, and translating into a service price inflation.</p><p>The Fed simply cannot stop hiking as long as there is a labor shortage, because the risk is that core inflation would continue rising over time.</p><p>So, what&#39;s causing the labor shortage? On the supply side, one of the main issues is demographics - the large segment of population (baby boomers) is exiting the labor force and retiring. Second, due to the unfolding trend of deglobalization, the US has stricter immigration policy which is slowing the labor force growth. On the demand side, and also due to deglobalization, the US is reshoring some jobs back home from China. The Fed cannot control the trends in demographics and deglobalization issues, and these structural longer-term trends. Thus, the labor market conditions will be out of balance for the foreseeable future.</p><p>The unfolding trend of deglobalization is also creating the risk for commodity price spikes, and the shortage of key input materials. These risks are even more extreme due to the fact that deglobalization is associated with geopolitical tensions, which increase the risk of cold wars, proxy wars, and direct military confrontations between the main global powers.</p><p>For example, Russia exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement, which pushed the price of wheat limit up in the futures market last week. Saudi Arabia is cutting the oil supplies to boost the price of oil. China imposed export controls on two strategic raw materials that are critical to the global chipmaking industry. These events are part of the broader trend which is likely to persist in the foreseeable future.</p><p>Obviously, these are not conditions where inflation is expected to fall to 2% over time. In fact, it&#39;s reasonable to conclude that we are currently still in a high inflationary environment.</p><h2 id=\"id_2678714004\">What should the Fed do?</h2><p>The Fed only directly controls the demand side of the equation, and the supply side problems can only be countered with declining demand to restore price stability. That means a recession.</p><p>Specifically, that means that the Fed needs to keep tightening monetary policy until the unemployment rate increases. The Fed has set the target of 4.1% unemployment rate for 2023 and 4.5% for 2024.</p><p>The Fed helped invert the yield curve, which is expected to cause credit tightness, which is expected to cause less investment, and thus, higher unemployment. So, now we are in the process of waiting for the lagged effects of this monetary policy transmission to the real economy. We are waiting for the clear signs of a recession.</p><p>The Fed decided to skip hiking interest rates in June to evaluate these lagged effects, and apparently decided to continue increasing interest rates at a much slower pace. Thus, the Fed is set to increase interest rates at the July meeting, and indicated that an additional 25bpt hike might be required in fall.</p><p>The lagged effects are already evident as the Redbook weekly retail sales are turning negative year over year, as well as industrial production. The labor market is showing some cracks with the (volatile) trend of higher weekly claims, but this is still insufficient.</p><p>The Fed is actually a very powerful institution with a broad geopolitical reach. The only way to really ensure a stable inflation rate over time is to directly address the underlying trends, particularly with the respect to deglobalization.</p><p>Specifically, I think the Fed should continue hiking well past 6% to induce a deep recession in the US, which would 1) crash oil price and weaken the oil revenue dependent Russia and other adversaries, 2) seriously weaken the export dependent Chinese economy.</p><p>Thus, by overtightening, the Fed would directly address the demand side of the equation via a higher unemployment rate, and indirectly affect the supply side by inducing economic barriers to deglobalization.</p><p>This is exactly what the Fed did in 1970s and especially in the early 1980s, when it hiked well above the core PCE inflation. Here is the chart, it&#39;s obvious that the current level of Federal Funds rate (red line) is not high enough in my opinion:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d60a7769c56493157af148c045b0f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"270\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>Now considering the Taylor Rule for determining the appropriate level for Federal Funds rate, the different scenarios suggest that the Federal Funds rate should be somewhere between 6.5% and 7.5%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d880c43218ed20ce7dde7739e111e909\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\"/></p><p>Atlanta Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_221054489\">What will the Fed do?</h2><p>The Fed is still behind based on the Taylor rule. We are in a high-inflationary environment characterized by a demographic time-bomb, de-globalization, a real war, a brewing war. These are the facts.</p><p>But the Fed is currently a conflicted institution in my view, where the major hawk Bullard actually quit the FOMC and the Fed, and is apparently being replaced by a dove.</p><p>The Fed has decided to take it slowly and to be data dependent, hoping that something will change over time. The Fed might be afraid of overtightening, but I think that&#39;s exactly what the Fed should do - overtighten. The Fed needs to create the conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time, no other way around it.</p><p>Alternatively, and this is becoming a baseline scenario on Wall Street, the Fed has to abandon the 2% target.</p><h2 id=\"id_3540477570\">Implications</h2><p>The stock market (SP500) has been rising since October 2022 in expectation of the Fed pivot - pause and a cut. These expectations are based on the recent memory of the 2000-2020 period, during which the US was in a low inflation environment. Actually, it was more of a disinflationary or even deflationary environment caused by globalization - abundant global labor force, cheap imports, etc.</p><p>But things have changed, we are in a high-inflationary environment now - just look at the headlines. The Fed has the mandate of 2% inflation over time, and that means the Fed will have no choice but to overtighten.</p><p>A soft-landing is a hope, and the market can run on a hope for some time. But, I believe the reality will set in. In fact, even the current earnings season for Q2 2023 has seen contracting margins, declining sales, and the third quarter of lower earnings.</p><p>The earnings projections are that earnings will start growing in Q4 2023, and over the entire 2024. That&#39;s based on a soft-landing scenario, so based on hope in my opinion. The trend of lower sales, lower margins, and lower earning is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, as the lagged effects of the recent monetary policy tightening intensify, while inflation continues to be elevated, forcing the Fed to continue to tighten the monetary policy likely past 6%.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Should Continue Hiking Past 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Should Continue Hiking Past 6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-26 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619601-the-fed-should-continue-hiking-past-6-percent><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The target is 2% inflation over timeHere is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement:In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619601-the-fed-should-continue-hiking-past-6-percent\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619601-the-fed-should-continue-hiking-past-6-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2354462003","content_text":"The target is 2% inflation over timeHere is the key sentence from the June FOMC meeting statement:In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.But what is the most important part in this statement that gives the clue about future monetary policy? It's bolded - it's \"over-time\". The Fed aims to return inflation to 2% over time. What does it mean?It means that the Fed could decide to pause the interest rate hiking cycle with core CPI inflation still elevated at 4.8%, if the conditions are set for inflation to fall to 2% over time.This is essentially what the soft-landing crowd is expecting - the Fed will pause after the July hike to 5.35%, despite the fact that core inflation remains elevated at 4.8%. Why? Because inflation is on the way down, and it will likely fall to 2% in the near future. And, of course, the economy will avoid falling into a recession because the Fed will start cutting interest rates as inflation continues falling in 2024.But, it also means that the Fed could continue hiking interest rates even if inflation falls faster than expected - if the conditions don't favor a stable 2% inflation over time.The June CPI report showed that core CPI increased only by 0.2% month-over-month, and 4.8% over the last 12 months. If the core CPI continues to rise by 0.2% each month, the core CPI will be at 2.5% by July 2024, which is still above the 2% target, so you would need to have a few months with 0.1% core CPI month over month to get to 2%. That's what the soft-landing scenario is expecting.The problem with the soft-landing scenario is that the Fed's own Inflation Nowcast expects that core CPI will rise by 0.4% in July. Obviously, the conditions for core inflation to return to 2% over time are not there yet. Thus, despite the soft June CPI report, I believe the Fed has to continue hiking.Cleveland FedBut what are the necessary conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time?The price is a function of supply and demand, it's a very simple economic concept. So, generally, there has to be a supply/demand balance economy wide. Specifically, there has to be an ample supply of 1) labor and 2) input materials, for production to meet the underlying demand.The US currently has a major labor shortage with full employment (unemployment rate at 3.6%) and nearly 10M job openings. Obviously, the supply of labor is limited, which is causing wage price inflation, and translating into a service price inflation.The Fed simply cannot stop hiking as long as there is a labor shortage, because the risk is that core inflation would continue rising over time.So, what's causing the labor shortage? On the supply side, one of the main issues is demographics - the large segment of population (baby boomers) is exiting the labor force and retiring. Second, due to the unfolding trend of deglobalization, the US has stricter immigration policy which is slowing the labor force growth. On the demand side, and also due to deglobalization, the US is reshoring some jobs back home from China. The Fed cannot control the trends in demographics and deglobalization issues, and these structural longer-term trends. Thus, the labor market conditions will be out of balance for the foreseeable future.The unfolding trend of deglobalization is also creating the risk for commodity price spikes, and the shortage of key input materials. These risks are even more extreme due to the fact that deglobalization is associated with geopolitical tensions, which increase the risk of cold wars, proxy wars, and direct military confrontations between the main global powers.For example, Russia exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement, which pushed the price of wheat limit up in the futures market last week. Saudi Arabia is cutting the oil supplies to boost the price of oil. China imposed export controls on two strategic raw materials that are critical to the global chipmaking industry. These events are part of the broader trend which is likely to persist in the foreseeable future.Obviously, these are not conditions where inflation is expected to fall to 2% over time. In fact, it's reasonable to conclude that we are currently still in a high inflationary environment.What should the Fed do?The Fed only directly controls the demand side of the equation, and the supply side problems can only be countered with declining demand to restore price stability. That means a recession.Specifically, that means that the Fed needs to keep tightening monetary policy until the unemployment rate increases. The Fed has set the target of 4.1% unemployment rate for 2023 and 4.5% for 2024.The Fed helped invert the yield curve, which is expected to cause credit tightness, which is expected to cause less investment, and thus, higher unemployment. So, now we are in the process of waiting for the lagged effects of this monetary policy transmission to the real economy. We are waiting for the clear signs of a recession.The Fed decided to skip hiking interest rates in June to evaluate these lagged effects, and apparently decided to continue increasing interest rates at a much slower pace. Thus, the Fed is set to increase interest rates at the July meeting, and indicated that an additional 25bpt hike might be required in fall.The lagged effects are already evident as the Redbook weekly retail sales are turning negative year over year, as well as industrial production. The labor market is showing some cracks with the (volatile) trend of higher weekly claims, but this is still insufficient.The Fed is actually a very powerful institution with a broad geopolitical reach. The only way to really ensure a stable inflation rate over time is to directly address the underlying trends, particularly with the respect to deglobalization.Specifically, I think the Fed should continue hiking well past 6% to induce a deep recession in the US, which would 1) crash oil price and weaken the oil revenue dependent Russia and other adversaries, 2) seriously weaken the export dependent Chinese economy.Thus, by overtightening, the Fed would directly address the demand side of the equation via a higher unemployment rate, and indirectly affect the supply side by inducing economic barriers to deglobalization.This is exactly what the Fed did in 1970s and especially in the early 1980s, when it hiked well above the core PCE inflation. Here is the chart, it's obvious that the current level of Federal Funds rate (red line) is not high enough in my opinion:FREDNow considering the Taylor Rule for determining the appropriate level for Federal Funds rate, the different scenarios suggest that the Federal Funds rate should be somewhere between 6.5% and 7.5%.Atlanta FedWhat will the Fed do?The Fed is still behind based on the Taylor rule. We are in a high-inflationary environment characterized by a demographic time-bomb, de-globalization, a real war, a brewing war. These are the facts.But the Fed is currently a conflicted institution in my view, where the major hawk Bullard actually quit the FOMC and the Fed, and is apparently being replaced by a dove.The Fed has decided to take it slowly and to be data dependent, hoping that something will change over time. The Fed might be afraid of overtightening, but I think that's exactly what the Fed should do - overtighten. The Fed needs to create the conditions for inflation to return to 2% over time, no other way around it.Alternatively, and this is becoming a baseline scenario on Wall Street, the Fed has to abandon the 2% target.ImplicationsThe stock market (SP500) has been rising since October 2022 in expectation of the Fed pivot - pause and a cut. These expectations are based on the recent memory of the 2000-2020 period, during which the US was in a low inflation environment. Actually, it was more of a disinflationary or even deflationary environment caused by globalization - abundant global labor force, cheap imports, etc.But things have changed, we are in a high-inflationary environment now - just look at the headlines. The Fed has the mandate of 2% inflation over time, and that means the Fed will have no choice but to overtighten.A soft-landing is a hope, and the market can run on a hope for some time. But, I believe the reality will set in. In fact, even the current earnings season for Q2 2023 has seen contracting margins, declining sales, and the third quarter of lower earnings.The earnings projections are that earnings will start growing in Q4 2023, and over the entire 2024. That's based on a soft-landing scenario, so based on hope in my opinion. The trend of lower sales, lower margins, and lower earning is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, as the lagged effects of the recent monetary policy tightening intensify, while inflation continues to be elevated, forcing the Fed to continue to tighten the monetary policy likely past 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