+Follow
DavidLeeT
No personal profile
98
Follow
8
Followers
1
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
DavidLeeT
2023-08-01
Hi there Nice to see you today
DavidLeeT
2023-01-25
Slowly
Opening | US stocks experienced a collective open low, with Microsoft falling over 3% in early trading.
DavidLeeT
2022-04-05
$格林美(002340)$
...
DavidLeeT
2022-03-10
..
Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3578436425687491","uuid":"3578436425687491","gmtCreate":1615342401903,"gmtModify":1618808697704,"name":"DavidLeeT","pinyin":"davidleet","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":8,"headSize":98,"tweetSize":40,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.09.01","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.14","exceedPercentage":"80.70%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.08%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":12,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":204068156846240,"gmtCreate":1690858163048,"gmtModify":1690858167258,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi there Nice to see you today ","listText":"Hi there Nice to see you today ","text":"Hi there Nice to see you today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204068156846240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952605972,"gmtCreate":1674660491696,"gmtModify":1676538951472,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Slowly ","listText":"Slowly ","text":"Slowly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952605972","repostId":"1108441041","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108441041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674657098,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108441041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-25 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | US stocks experienced a collective open low, with Microsoft falling over 3% in early trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108441041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Wednesday, January 25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, at 33,454.48. The S&P 500 opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, at 3967.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, at 11,130.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Microsoft's revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, marking its lowest growth rate since 2016, after falling more than 3%. Profits fell to $16.43 billion from $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 12%. The growth rate of its cloud business, Azure, is slowing, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>open low fell 2%.<b>Tesla will release its earnings report after the market closes today, and some analysts expect its net profit to hit a near three-year low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>The company fell more than 3%, with both Q4 revenue and net profit falling short of expectations.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%, with Q4 revenue declining 12% to $10.1 billion due to declining demand for COVID-19 testing products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and its fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>AT&T bucked the market trend, rising nearly 4% to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.61 in the fourth quarter, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the market trend, rising more than 5% after the company announced it would raise the prices of some services in 2023.</p><p>More popular Chinese concept stocks fell than rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 0.35%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 0.54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | US stocks experienced a collective open low, with Microsoft falling over 3% in early trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | US stocks experienced a collective open low, with Microsoft falling over 3% in early trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-25 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Wednesday, January 25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, at 33,454.48. The S&P 500 opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, at 3967.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, at 11,130.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Microsoft's revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, marking its lowest growth rate since 2016, after falling more than 3%. Profits fell to $16.43 billion from $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 12%. The growth rate of its cloud business, Azure, is slowing, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>open low fell 2%.<b>Tesla will release its earnings report after the market closes today, and some analysts expect its net profit to hit a near three-year low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>The company fell more than 3%, with both Q4 revenue and net profit falling short of expectations.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%, with Q4 revenue declining 12% to $10.1 billion due to declining demand for COVID-19 testing products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and its fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>AT&T bucked the market trend, rising nearly 4% to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.61 in the fourth quarter, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the market trend, rising more than 5% after the company announced it would raise the prices of some services in 2023.</p><p>More popular Chinese concept stocks fell than rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 0.35%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 0.54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108441041","content_text":"1月25日（周三），道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点；标普500指数开盘下跌49.00点，跌幅1.22%，报3967.95点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌203.66点，跌幅1.80%，报11130.61点。微软跌超3%，微软2023年第二财季收入为527.5亿美元，同比增长2%，创下2016年以来的最低增速；利润从上一年同期的187.7亿美元降至164.3亿美元，同比下滑12%。云业务Azure增速放缓，公司预计这种趋势可能在未来几个季度持续。特斯拉低开跌2%，特斯拉将于今日盘后公布财报，有分析师预计其净利润将创近3年新低。波音跌超3%，Q4营收和净利润均不及预期。雅培跌2%，受新冠测试产品需求下降的影响，Q4营收下滑12%至101亿美元。纳斯达克OMX交易所跌7%，创2020年3月以来最大跌幅，第四季度业绩不及预期。美国电话电报(AT&T)逆市涨近4%，第四季度调整后每股收益0.61美元，超出市场预期。Shopify逆市涨超5%，此前该公司表示2023年将提高部分服务的价格。热门中概股盘初阶段跌多涨少，阿里巴巴涨0.36%，拼多多跌0.35%，京东跌0.54%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、理想汽车跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016184355,"gmtCreate":1649149002763,"gmtModify":1676534459353,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","text":"$格林美(002340)$...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/637d8876e329a2cf71420438f1b7af1c","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016184355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038476956,"gmtCreate":1646904897821,"gmtModify":1676534175374,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578436425687491","idStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038476956","repostId":"1137319987","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137319987","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646904185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137319987?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 17:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137319987","media":"宏观闻涛声","summary":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates. We discussed eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the conflict in Georgia, the Crimean crisis, and the current conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of impact response. The first category involves a significant increase in oil prices, with the increase reaching around 150%-200%. The second category involves oil prices rising on the monthly chart before falling back, with a pullback/retracement range of around 40%-60%. The third category involves short-term fluctuations in oil prices with insignificant long-term impact.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stages of global crude oil supply and demand, we believe that:</b></p><p>Currently, there is a supply and demand gap in crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disruptions, and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of repairing the gap is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible future development path of the impact of the Ukraine conflict, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, regarding the next stage of crude oil price trends, we outlook them by scenario and provide technical levels: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1. Foreword: Where are crude oil prices headed?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, reaching over $120 per barrel as of March 9. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and the supply-demand gap, which has some reason, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2. Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This section examines the historical shock response patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\" and, based on these historical patterns, establishes a trend expectation framework for the current round of crude oil price shock response patterns.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Taking into account the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the First Oil Crisis, the Second Oil Crisis, the Third Oil Crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We provide a brief overview of past geopolitical conflicts to provide a basis for our subsequent classification of the impact patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\". We mainly focus on the duration of geopolitical conflicts, the areas affected, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution.</p><p><b>(1) Cuban Crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting approximately 3 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the United States, the former Soviet Union, and Cuba; affecting the Caribbean region, which is not a major global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Missile and nuclear weapons deployment issues, the United States raised the war readiness level to Level II, peaceful resolution, no open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The First Oil Crisis/Fourth Middle East War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union. The Middle East is the world's most important crude oil producing region. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Local wars with many participating countries and high short-term intensity. The United States raised its war readiness level to Level III and redefined its borders and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) The Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Iran, Iraq, the United States, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: conflicts between major regional powers, high-intensity local wars, and continued hostility after a hot war.</p><p><b>(4) The Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting approximately 8 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States raised its war readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a minor cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the UN resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing of Yugoslavia/Kosovo War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, the Balkans, and further Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gaining overwhelming military superiority, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrating after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Conflict in Georgia</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are Georgia, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: Short-term localized conflict, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia declares recognition of some regional independence, while the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, and Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Short-term localized instability, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced its recognition of some regions joining Russia, while the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Conflict in Ukraine (as of 9 March 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak phase/time: February 2022 - present, still in military conflict.</p><p>To date, the main countries/regions affected are: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>As of now, the main forms of conflict/resolution are: regional military conflicts and negotiations are underway simultaneously; Russia has raised its strategic weapons readiness level to a special state; the United States has raised its combat readiness level to Level III; the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system; and the United States has announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil and natural gas. However, as of now, EU countries such as Germany have not explicitly announced that they will follow suit.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trends amid geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the affected areas, the intensity of the confrontation, and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the following 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict - crude oil price\" can be mainly divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative increase of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical examples include the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. Typical characteristics include high-intensity military conflicts or escalating into localized wars, conflicts lasting at least four months, crude oil supply being involved in the conflict-affected areas, and some cases involving embargoes by crude oil-exporting countries driving up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, oil prices begin to fall within 1-3 months of the outbreak of the event, and then fall significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical examples include the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict, and the Crimean crisis. Typical characteristics include a relatively rapid phased settlement, either one side of the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some monetary dominant countries are stabilizing oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although oil prices have declined, they have not fluctuated significantly, and the long-term impact is not significant. A typical example is the Cuban Missile Crisis.</b>The typical characteristics are that the events are highly sudden. Although there is significant short-term pressure, they are resolved relatively quickly (within one month). There are no major crude oil-producing areas where the events occur, and they do not escalate into a hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types, we proportionally map the corresponding \"geopolitical shocks - oil price response\" trends to the current time in Ukraine. As shown in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend of \"getting a quick solution in the short term\" and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick solution - oil price decline\" patterns, namely Scenario 0 Cuban Crisis, Scenario 5 Georgian Conflict, and Scenario 6 Crimean Crisis, have all deviated to some extent from the current crude oil price trend.</p><p><b>(2) The next stage of oil price trends, based on historical patterns, depends heavily on whether a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, that is, between March and May.</b>Historically, if a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, it is possible to follow a pattern similar to the third oil crisis in Scenario 3, with oil prices gradually falling from June, giving back previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) Historically, if the conflict cannot be resolved by May at the latest, oil prices may see a significant cumulative increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the historical scenarios of Scenario 1, the first oil crisis, Scenario 2, the second oil crisis, and Scenario 4, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, when applied to the current impact on Ukraine, oil prices may break through $160/barrel in mid-2022 and rise to $190-230/barrel by the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) We also calculated the Fibonacci percentile based on the historical impact response fluctuations and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure and resistance levels for this round, from low to high:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Current crude oil supply and demand pattern and potential impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>Following the previous section's examination of geopolitical shock responses to crude oil prices, this section examines the current global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and the potential impact on the crude oil market of Russia, a key player in the geopolitical conflict.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil supply situation reveals that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side has not yet fully recovered.</b>Looking at global daily crude oil production, the current global total supply is still somewhat lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for approximately 11.4%, Iran for approximately 3.6%, and the United States for approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy brings a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>By the end of 2021, the United States' own crude oil production had exceeded 90% of its domestic crude oil consumption. Since breaking through 50% for the first time in 2012, the United States' self-sufficiency rate in crude oil consumption has continued to improve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: shortfall and declining inventories</b></p><p>Currently, examining global crude oil demand reveals the following:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for rising oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has consistently exceeded aggregate supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Based on past experience, crude oil prices have always been dominated by above-average prices during periods of excessive demand and supply gaps.</p><p><b>(2) The impact on Ukraine may further increase the current mismatch between crude oil supply and demand.</b>The current conflict in Ukraine has primarily impacted crude oil production in the short term, and coupled with previous supply chain disruptions, it has brought further pressure on the supply and demand imbalance in the short term. However, it should also be noted that with rising oil prices, it remains to be seen when the potential supply-boosting and demand-suppressing effects will lead to gap filling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Crude oil inventories are significantly low.</b>Most major crude oil-consuming countries have reduced their inventories and are at low levels, further boosting the demand for crude oil inventory replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) Russia's export product composition is relatively concentrated in commodities such as crude oil.</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly commodities, and it is an important exporter of metals such as crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel, wheat, and fertilizers. The top 15 export items by export value are: 1-5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, and diesel; 6-10: Liquid fuels, ferrous metals, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed timber, mixed fertilizers, inorganic nitrogen fertilizers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade is mainly with Europe and Asia.</b></p><p>As shown in Charts 12 and 13, as of the end of 2021, my country and Germany were Russia's largest trading partners, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade, respectively. The United States and the United Kingdom both account for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, at 4.4% and 3.4% respectively. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the European Union (EU), and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three main trading partners, meaning that Russia's trade is mainly conducted in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 Possible impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>According to an Associated Press report on March 9th, Beijing time, US President Biden announced a ban on US imports of Russian crude oil and natural gas. As of 2:00 PM, the UK had indicated it would consider following suit, while Germany and other European countries had not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared to the US and UK, it is more costly for EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo.</b></p><p>In terms of crude oil self-sufficiency rates, both the United States and the United Kingdom have crude oil self-sufficiency rates of around 90%. If production is further expanded, the self-sufficiency rate can be increased to over 100%. Historically, the United Kingdom's crude oil self-sufficiency rate has been higher than 100% for a long time. Currently, US shale oil production is still lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, and there is some room for increased production.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia exports a large amount of crude oil. If there is an embargo, it is difficult to avoid a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of global total production capacity, regardless of geopolitical factors and transportation costs, the United States may still be able to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is approximately 11 million barrels per day, and its exports are approximately 4-7 million barrels per day. In terms of both total production and exports, its share of global crude oil supply and exports is about 11%. Under the most extreme scenario, a complete embargo would create a gap of 4-7 million barrels per day in global daily crude oil consumption, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, Iran and Venezuela, which are still under US sanctions, have crude oil exports that are approximately 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day currently, and there is still room for increased production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of a potential crude oil embargo is uneven, and continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures than the UK and the US.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the final section of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and patterns of \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, and, based on the current situation, provide an outlook on possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market patterns after the \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Chart 18, when reviewing the market patterns following each \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock, it can be found that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the shock is highly correlated with the pace of US rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency of crude oil prices relative to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator for interest rate decisions in practice. From the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when a shock occurs, the annual oil price trend and the direction of the target interest rate adjustment are highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices in the year following the shock is highly consistent with the trend of yields.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or year after most conflicts, the US economic growth rate declined or even fell into recession territory.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at global economic growth in the year and the year after the conflict, most of the time, in most countries and regions, the actual growth results were lower than the expected figures before the conflict. However, it should be noted that the distribution of this downward revision is often uneven—the parties involved in the conflict and the regional economies in which they are located tend to revise downward more significantly, followed by economic and trade partners, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible Future Developments of the Current \"Geopolitical-Oil\" Impact on Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Taking into account the impact patterns of previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the following regarding the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukraine conflict:</b></p><p><b>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, Russia's main demands still differ significantly from the US position. Currently, as the duration of regional military conflicts increases, oil prices are moving away from the \"short-term conflict - oil price decline\" pattern. If a settlement cannot be reached within the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the \"continuous conflict - oil price rise\" pattern is increasing. At the same time, unlike in the past, the United States, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and technology, is imposing comprehensive sanctions and embargoes on Russia in various fields such as finance, trade and technology. These sanctions and confrontations have further affected the global industrial chain and production system, and disrupted the global economic growth and inflation environment.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</b>Due to the disruption of global supply chains caused by the conflict, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively less inflation risk. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to \"stability is progress\" and \"self-reliance\". Considerations to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises and the stable value of the RMB will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainties, and pandemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646904227423","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere will crude oil prices go in the next stage?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">宏观闻涛声</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-10 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates. We discussed eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the conflict in Georgia, the Crimean crisis, and the current conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of impact response. The first category involves a significant increase in oil prices, with the increase reaching around 150%-200%. The second category involves oil prices rising on the monthly chart before falling back, with a pullback/retracement range of around 40%-60%. The third category involves short-term fluctuations in oil prices with insignificant long-term impact.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stages of global crude oil supply and demand, we believe that:</b></p><p>Currently, there is a supply and demand gap in crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disruptions, and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of repairing the gap is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible future development path of the impact of the Ukraine conflict, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, regarding the next stage of crude oil price trends, we outlook them by scenario and provide technical levels: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1. Foreword: Where are crude oil prices headed?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, reaching over $120 per barrel as of March 9. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and the supply-demand gap, which has some reason, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2. Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This section examines the historical shock response patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\" and, based on these historical patterns, establishes a trend expectation framework for the current round of crude oil price shock response patterns.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Taking into account the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the First Oil Crisis, the Second Oil Crisis, the Third Oil Crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We provide a brief overview of past geopolitical conflicts to provide a basis for our subsequent classification of the impact patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\". We mainly focus on the duration of geopolitical conflicts, the areas affected, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution.</p><p><b>(1) Cuban Crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting approximately 3 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the United States, the former Soviet Union, and Cuba; affecting the Caribbean region, which is not a major global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Missile and nuclear weapons deployment issues, the United States raised the war readiness level to Level II, peaceful resolution, no open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The First Oil Crisis/Fourth Middle East War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union. The Middle East is the world's most important crude oil producing region. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Local wars with many participating countries and high short-term intensity. The United States raised its war readiness level to Level III and redefined its borders and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) The Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Iran, Iraq, the United States, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: conflicts between major regional powers, high-intensity local wars, and continued hostility after a hot war.</p><p><b>(4) The Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting approximately 8 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States raised its war readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a minor cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the UN resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing of Yugoslavia/Kosovo War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, the Balkans, and further Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gaining overwhelming military superiority, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrating after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Conflict in Georgia</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are Georgia, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: Short-term localized conflict, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia declares recognition of some regional independence, while the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, and Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Short-term localized instability, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced its recognition of some regions joining Russia, while the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Conflict in Ukraine (as of 9 March 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak phase/time: February 2022 - present, still in military conflict.</p><p>To date, the main countries/regions affected are: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>As of now, the main forms of conflict/resolution are: regional military conflicts and negotiations are underway simultaneously; Russia has raised its strategic weapons readiness level to a special state; the United States has raised its combat readiness level to Level III; the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system; and the United States has announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil and natural gas. However, as of now, EU countries such as Germany have not explicitly announced that they will follow suit.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trends amid geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the affected areas, the intensity of the confrontation, and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the following 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict - crude oil price\" can be mainly divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative increase of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical examples include the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. Typical characteristics include high-intensity military conflicts or escalating into localized wars, conflicts lasting at least four months, crude oil supply being involved in the conflict-affected areas, and some cases involving embargoes by crude oil-exporting countries driving up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, oil prices begin to fall within 1-3 months of the outbreak of the event, and then fall significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical examples include the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict, and the Crimean crisis. Typical characteristics include a relatively rapid phased settlement, either one side of the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some monetary dominant countries are stabilizing oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although oil prices have declined, they have not fluctuated significantly, and the long-term impact is not significant. A typical example is the Cuban Missile Crisis.</b>The typical characteristics are that the events are highly sudden. Although there is significant short-term pressure, they are resolved relatively quickly (within one month). There are no major crude oil-producing areas where the events occur, and they do not escalate into a hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types, we proportionally map the corresponding \"geopolitical shocks - oil price response\" trends to the current time in Ukraine. As shown in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend of \"getting a quick solution in the short term\" and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick solution - oil price decline\" patterns, namely Scenario 0 Cuban Crisis, Scenario 5 Georgian Conflict, and Scenario 6 Crimean Crisis, have all deviated to some extent from the current crude oil price trend.</p><p><b>(2) The next stage of oil price trends, based on historical patterns, depends heavily on whether a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, that is, between March and May.</b>Historically, if a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, it is possible to follow a pattern similar to the third oil crisis in Scenario 3, with oil prices gradually falling from June, giving back previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) Historically, if the conflict cannot be resolved by May at the latest, oil prices may see a significant cumulative increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the historical scenarios of Scenario 1, the first oil crisis, Scenario 2, the second oil crisis, and Scenario 4, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, when applied to the current impact on Ukraine, oil prices may break through $160/barrel in mid-2022 and rise to $190-230/barrel by the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) We also calculated the Fibonacci percentile based on the historical impact response fluctuations and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure and resistance levels for this round, from low to high:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Current crude oil supply and demand pattern and potential impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>Following the previous section's examination of geopolitical shock responses to crude oil prices, this section examines the current global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and the potential impact on the crude oil market of Russia, a key player in the geopolitical conflict.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil supply situation reveals that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side has not yet fully recovered.</b>Looking at global daily crude oil production, the current global total supply is still somewhat lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for approximately 11.4%, Iran for approximately 3.6%, and the United States for approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy brings a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>By the end of 2021, the United States' own crude oil production had exceeded 90% of its domestic crude oil consumption. Since breaking through 50% for the first time in 2012, the United States' self-sufficiency rate in crude oil consumption has continued to improve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: shortfall and declining inventories</b></p><p>Currently, examining global crude oil demand reveals the following:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for rising oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has consistently exceeded aggregate supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Based on past experience, crude oil prices have always been dominated by above-average prices during periods of excessive demand and supply gaps.</p><p><b>(2) The impact on Ukraine may further increase the current mismatch between crude oil supply and demand.</b>The current conflict in Ukraine has primarily impacted crude oil production in the short term, and coupled with previous supply chain disruptions, it has brought further pressure on the supply and demand imbalance in the short term. However, it should also be noted that with rising oil prices, it remains to be seen when the potential supply-boosting and demand-suppressing effects will lead to gap filling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Crude oil inventories are significantly low.</b>Most major crude oil-consuming countries have reduced their inventories and are at low levels, further boosting the demand for crude oil inventory replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) Russia's export product composition is relatively concentrated in commodities such as crude oil.</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly commodities, and it is an important exporter of metals such as crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel, wheat, and fertilizers. The top 15 export items by export value are: 1-5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, and diesel; 6-10: Liquid fuels, ferrous metals, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed timber, mixed fertilizers, inorganic nitrogen fertilizers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade is mainly with Europe and Asia.</b></p><p>As shown in Charts 12 and 13, as of the end of 2021, my country and Germany were Russia's largest trading partners, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade, respectively. The United States and the United Kingdom both account for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, at 4.4% and 3.4% respectively. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the European Union (EU), and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three main trading partners, meaning that Russia's trade is mainly conducted in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 Possible impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>According to an Associated Press report on March 9th, Beijing time, US President Biden announced a ban on US imports of Russian crude oil and natural gas. As of 2:00 PM, the UK had indicated it would consider following suit, while Germany and other European countries had not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared to the US and UK, it is more costly for EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo.</b></p><p>In terms of crude oil self-sufficiency rates, both the United States and the United Kingdom have crude oil self-sufficiency rates of around 90%. If production is further expanded, the self-sufficiency rate can be increased to over 100%. Historically, the United Kingdom's crude oil self-sufficiency rate has been higher than 100% for a long time. Currently, US shale oil production is still lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, and there is some room for increased production.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia exports a large amount of crude oil. If there is an embargo, it is difficult to avoid a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of global total production capacity, regardless of geopolitical factors and transportation costs, the United States may still be able to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is approximately 11 million barrels per day, and its exports are approximately 4-7 million barrels per day. In terms of both total production and exports, its share of global crude oil supply and exports is about 11%. Under the most extreme scenario, a complete embargo would create a gap of 4-7 million barrels per day in global daily crude oil consumption, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, Iran and Venezuela, which are still under US sanctions, have crude oil exports that are approximately 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day currently, and there is still room for increased production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of a potential crude oil embargo is uneven, and continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures than the UK and the US.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the final section of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and patterns of \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, and, based on the current situation, provide an outlook on possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market patterns after the \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Chart 18, when reviewing the market patterns following each \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock, it can be found that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the shock is highly correlated with the pace of US rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency of crude oil prices relative to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator for interest rate decisions in practice. From the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when a shock occurs, the annual oil price trend and the direction of the target interest rate adjustment are highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices in the year following the shock is highly consistent with the trend of yields.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or year after most conflicts, the US economic growth rate declined or even fell into recession territory.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at global economic growth in the year and the year after the conflict, most of the time, in most countries and regions, the actual growth results were lower than the expected figures before the conflict. However, it should be noted that the distribution of this downward revision is often uneven—the parties involved in the conflict and the regional economies in which they are located tend to revise downward more significantly, followed by economic and trade partners, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible Future Developments of the Current \"Geopolitical-Oil\" Impact on Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Taking into account the impact patterns of previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the following regarding the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukraine conflict:</b></p><p><b>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, Russia's main demands still differ significantly from the US position. Currently, as the duration of regional military conflicts increases, oil prices are moving away from the \"short-term conflict - oil price decline\" pattern. If a settlement cannot be reached within the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the \"continuous conflict - oil price rise\" pattern is increasing. At the same time, unlike in the past, the United States, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and technology, is imposing comprehensive sanctions and embargoes on Russia in various fields such as finance, trade and technology. These sanctions and confrontations have further affected the global industrial chain and production system, and disrupted the global economic growth and inflation environment.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</b>Due to the disruption of global supply chains caused by the conflict, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively less inflation risk. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to \"stability is progress\" and \"self-reliance\". Considerations to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises and the stable value of the RMB will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainties, and pandemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA\">宏观闻涛声</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137319987","content_text":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲击，包括：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。同时，对全球原油供需格局进行了分析。对于历次“地缘-原油”冲击，我们认为：主要有三种冲击响应类型。第一类，油价显著上行，幅度可达150%-200%左右。第二类，油价月线上行后回落，回撤幅度可达40%-60%左右。第三类，油价短线波动，长期影响不显著。对于当前和下一阶段全球原油供需格局，我们认为：当前原油存在供需缺口，地缘博弈、产业链扰动和潜在的制裁都影响了这一缺口的回补，缺口负担的分布是不均的，缺口修复的进程高度受地缘形势影响。对于此次乌克兰冲突冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们认为：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。（3）最后，对于下一阶段原油价格走势，我们分场景展望，并给出技术面点位：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。1 前言：原油价格走向何方？2022年2月乌克兰冲突爆发以来，全球原油价格持续上行，截至3月9日，已推升至超过120美元/桶水平。我们认为，当前的原油价格较快上涨，主要受地缘冲突和供需缺口双重因素推动，有一定合理性，但也面临较高波动性和高度不确定性。如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。2 历史上的地缘冲突冲与原油价格走势本部分考量历史上“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应模式，并基于历史模式，建立对本轮原油价格冲击响应模式的走势预期框架。2.1 当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲突综合考虑对原油市场的影响和地缘冲突的烈度，二战以后建立的当前原油市场，至少经历过八次较显著的地缘冲突，分别是：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。我们简单概述历次地缘冲突，为我们后续对“地缘冲突-原油价格”影响模式的分类提供基础，主要关注地缘冲突的：持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式。（1）古巴危机主要爆发阶段/时间：1962年8月-10月，持续约3个月。主要影响国家/地区：美国、前苏联、古巴，影响加勒比海地区，非全球原油主产区。主要冲突/解决形式：导弹和核武器部署问题，美国提升战备等级至II级，和平解决、没有公开发生热战。（2）第一次石油危机/第四次中东战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1973年10月-1974年3月，持续约6个月。主要影响国家/地区：埃及等中东地区阿拉伯国家、以色列、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区，OPEC在1973年10月宣布对部分国家石油禁运。主要冲突/解决形式：参与国较多，短期烈度较高的局部战争，美国提升战备等级至III级，热战后重新划定国界和领土。（3）第二次石油危机/伊朗革命/两伊战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1979年1月-1981年2月，持续约26个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊朗、伊拉克、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区大国冲突，较高烈度的局部战争，热战后持续处于敌对状态。（4）第三次石油危机/海湾战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1990年8月-1991年3月，持续约8个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊拉克、美国、科威特，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国提升战备等级至II级，以轻微代价重创伊拉克，军事上取得压倒性优势，伊拉克接受联合国决议撤军。（5）北约轰炸南联盟/科索沃战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1999年3月-6月，持续约4个月。主要影响国家/地区：前南联盟、美国、北约，影响巴尔干地区，进一步影响中东欧地区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国为首的北约在军事上取得压倒性优势，前南联盟于战后解体。（6）格鲁吉亚冲突主要爆发阶段/时间：2008年8月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部冲突，俄罗斯在军事上取得压倒性优势，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区独立，美国和北约不予承认。（7）克里米亚危机主要爆发阶段/时间：2014年3月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：克里米亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部动荡，未有大规模军事冲突，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区加入俄罗斯，美国和北约不予承认。（8）乌克兰冲突（截至2022年3月9日）截至目前，主要爆发阶段/时间：2022年2月-至今，尚在军事冲突中。截止目前，主要影响国家/地区：乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。截至目前，主要冲突/解决形式：地区军事冲突和谈判同时进行中，俄罗斯提升战略武器备战等级进入特殊状态，美国提升战备等级至III级，美国和欧盟宣布禁止俄罗斯部分机构使用SWIFT系统等制裁，美国宣布禁止俄罗斯原油和天然气进口，但截至目前德国等欧盟国家尚未明确宣布跟进。2.2 地缘冲突下的原油价格走势基于上文对冲突持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式的分析，当考量同期和其后24个月的原油价格走势，我们认为，“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应走势，主要可以分为三类：（1）第一类，油价显著上行，累计上行幅度可达150%-200%左右。典型代表为，第一次、第二次石油危机和北约轰炸南联盟。典型特征为，皆有烈度较高的军事冲突、或升级为局部战争，冲突持续时间至少超过4个月，冲突影响地区涉及原油供给，同时，部分存在原油出口国禁运推升油价情况。（2）第二类，油价在事件爆发1-3个月内开始回落，之后显著回落，累计回落幅度可达40%-60%左右。典型代表为，第三次石油危机、格鲁吉亚冲突和克里米亚危机。典型特征为，事件相对较快取得阶段性和解、或军事冲突一方存在压倒性优势、或烈度皆整体可控，同时，部分存在货币主导国平抑油价情况。（3）第三类，油价虽有下行，但没有大幅波动，长期影响不显著。典型代表为，古巴危机。典型特征为，事件突发性较强，虽然短线压力较大、但解决相对较快（1个月内），没有发生的主要原油产区，没有升级为热战。综合三种类型，将相应“地缘冲击-油价响应”走势等比例映射至当前乌克兰时间，如图表5中的不同场景走势，我们认为：（1）当前的原油价格走势，已初步偏离了历史上“得到短期快速解决”的走势模式，正在展现继续上行压力。历史上，主要的三次“快速解决-油价回落”模式，即情景0古巴危机、情景5格鲁吉亚冲突和情景6克里米亚危机，均已经与当前的原油价格走势出现一定幅度背离。（2）下一阶段油价走势，历史模式看，高度取决于是否能在3-4个月内，即3月至5月期间，取得和解。历史上，如能在3-4个月内取得和解，则有可能走出情景3第三次石油危机相似走势，油价从6月起逐步回落，吐回前期涨幅。（3）历史模式看，如本次冲突无法在至迟5月之前取得和解，则油价将可能走出累计100%-200%左右的显著涨幅。即，参照历史上的情景1第一次石油危机、情景2第二次石油危机和情景4北约轰炸南联盟，当映射到本次乌克兰冲击，油价将可能在2022年中即升破160美元/桶，在年末升至190-230美元/桶水平。（4）我们同时测算了基于历史上历次冲击响应波动幅度的斐波那契分位，并折算为本轮对应的技术面压力阻力位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。3 当前原油供需格局和可能的俄罗斯原油禁运影响在上节考察原油价格的地缘冲击响应后，本节考察当前的全球原油供需基本面，以及地缘冲突的重要参与方俄罗斯的可能原油市场影响。3.1 原油供给：相对不足当前，考查全球原油总供给情况，可以发现：（1）供给侧整体尚未完全恢复。从全球原油日产量看，当前全球总供给仍一定幅度低于2019年新冠疫情前水平。（2）俄罗斯是重要原油生产国，近期其面临的局势，对未来供给带来较高不确定。从全球生产份额看，截至2021年末，俄罗斯约为11.4%，伊朗约为3.6%，美国约为20.3%。（3）美国已基本实现原油自给自足，其后续原油政策对未来供给带来较高不确定。截至2021年末，美国自有原油生产量已超过本国原油消费量的90%，从2012年首次升破50%后，美国原油消费自给率持续提升。3.2 原油需求：缺口和库存下行当前，考查全球原油需求情况，可以发现：（1）需求超出供给，为油价上行提供了基本面支持。2021年以来，全球总需求持续高于总供给，缺口持续的时间与幅度皆已达到或接近历史记录水平。过往经验看，历次需求超出，供给缺口时期，原油价格皆以上行为主。（2）乌克兰冲击的或将进一步增加当前原油供需错位。本次乌克兰冲突，短线主要冲击原油生产侧，叠加前期产业链扰动，带来短线进一步供需失衡压力。但也应注意，随油价上行，潜在的供给促进和需求抑制效应何时可带来缺口回补，需后续观察。（3）原油库存低位情况显著。主要原油消费国库存大多处于去化和低库存状态，进一步推升了原油的补库存需求。3.3 俄罗斯的主要贸易格局（1）俄罗斯的出口产品构成，较集中于原油等大宗商品俄罗斯的出口，主要以大宗商品为主，是原油、天然气、铝钢等金属、小麦、化肥等领域的重要出口国。按出口金额，前15大出口品，分别为：1~5：原油、石油产品、天然气、机械和工具、柴油；6-10：液体燃料、铁类金属、煤炭、生铝、半成品碳钢；11-15：小麦及混合麦、扁碳钢、加工木材、混合肥料、无机氮肥。（2）俄罗斯的贸易往来，以欧洲和亚洲地区为主如图表12和图表13，截至2021年底：我国和德国，是俄罗斯份额占比最高的贸易伙伴国，分别占俄罗斯进出口贸易总额的17.9%和7.3%；美国和英国，占俄罗斯净出口贸易份额皆未超过5%，分别为4.4%和3.4%；亚太经合组织（APEC）、欧盟（EU）和独联体（CIS），是俄罗斯最主要的三个贸易伙伴组织，即俄罗斯贸易往来以欧洲和亚洲地区为主。3.4 可能的对俄原油出口制裁的影响北京时间3月9日，美联社消息，美国总统拜登宣布禁止美国进口俄罗斯原油和天然气等产品，截至下午14.00，英国表示将考虑跟进，德国等欧洲大陆国家尚未有明确表态。（1）相对于美英，德国和法国等欧盟国家加入原油禁运的成本更高从原油自给率看，美国和英国的原油自给率皆在90%左右，如进一步扩大生产，有能力将自给率提升至100%以上——英国历史上原油自给率曾较长期高于100%，当前美国页岩油生产仍低于2019年新冠疫情前水平，有一定增产空间。（2）俄罗斯原油出口量较大，如禁运，对市场较显著的短线冲击难以避免，但从全球总产能层面，不考虑地缘因素和运输成本，美国仍有可能对供给缺口进行平抑。当前，俄罗斯原油产量约在1100万桶/日，出口规模约在400-700万桶/日，无论以总产量、或出口量看，对全球原油供给、或出口的份额占比，都在约11%左右。在最极端情况的假设下，如完全禁运，则全球原油日消费将新增400-700万桶/日的缺口，约占全球原油日消费总量的4.5%-7.9%。当前，仍受美国制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉，其原油出口，分别比制裁前低约150-200万桶/日和200-250万桶/日。沙特方面，原油出口比新冠疫情前仍低约100万桶/日。美国方面，其自身原油出口从2016年的不到60万桶/日，上行到当前的超过300万桶/日，并仍有增产空间。但仍应注意，潜在的原油禁运的影响分布是不均衡的，相对于英美，德国、法国等欧洲大陆国家将承受更多的潜在风险和压力。4 小结与展望在本文的最后部分，我们总结“地缘-原油”冲击的潜在市场影响模式和规律，并基于当前形势，对后续可能的原油价格走势，及其潜在的衍生影响，进行展望。4.1 “地缘-原油”冲击后的可能市场模式如图表18，当回顾历次“地缘-原油”冲击后的市场模式，可以发现：（1）冲击后的原油价格走势和美国加息节奏高度相关。进一步的，由于原油价格相对美联储利率决议的更高频属性，实际操作中可以将原油价格作为议息决议的前瞻指标——从地缘冲击的视角，当冲击发生后，年线内的油价走势和目标利率调整方向高度一致。（2）冲击后的美国10Y国债收益率走势与原油价格走势高度相关。在剔除避险情绪等日线层面的短线扰动后，原油价格的月线走势在冲击发生后的年度，和收益率走向高度一致。（3）多数冲突发生的当年或下一年，美国经济增速皆有下移，甚至跌入衰退区间。进一步的，当回溯冲突发生当年和下一年的全球经济增长时，多数时候、多数国家和地区是的实际增长结果不及冲突发生前的预期数值，但应注意，这一下调的分布往往是不均的——冲突参与方和所在地域经济体往往较显著下修，其次是经济和贸易关联方，再次是其它受影响较小的国家和地区。4.2 当前乌克兰“地缘-原油”冲击的可能后续发展综合考虑历次的“地缘-原油”冲击的影响模式，对于当前乌克兰冲突，事件冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们预期如下：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。本次冲突，俄罗斯的主要诉求与美国立场仍有较显著分歧。目前，随地区军事冲突的持续时间增加，油价正在远离“短期冲突-油价回落”的模式，如不能在未来1-3个月内得到和解，则转入“持续冲突-油价上行”模式的概率在上行——同时，不同于以往情况，此次美国依赖其在全球金融、贸易和科技的主导地位，正在对俄罗斯的金融、贸易和科技等诸领域进行全方位制裁和禁运——这一制裁与对抗，进一步影响了全球产业链和生产体系，干扰了全球经济增长和通胀环境。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。由于冲突对全球产业链的扰乱，无论原油价格是否上行，冲突本身都更大概率会削弱1-2年内的局部和全球经济增长。作为全球最大生产国，我国将面临相对更小的通胀风险，由于外部环境的更高不确定性，政策将更加注重“稳就是进”和“以我为主”，降低企业实际融资成本的考量和稳健的人民币币值，将提供更好的货币政策和利率空间。（3）最后，回到原油价格走势，我们认为：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。风险提示：地缘、经济、通胀、海外不确定性和疫情风险","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9038476956,"gmtCreate":1646904897821,"gmtModify":1676534175374,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038476956","repostId":"1137319987","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137319987","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646904185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137319987?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 17:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137319987","media":"宏观闻涛声","summary":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates. We discussed eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the conflict in Georgia, the Crimean crisis, and the current conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of impact response. The first category involves a significant increase in oil prices, with the increase reaching around 150%-200%. The second category involves oil prices rising on the monthly chart before falling back, with a pullback/retracement range of around 40%-60%. The third category involves short-term fluctuations in oil prices with insignificant long-term impact.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stages of global crude oil supply and demand, we believe that:</b></p><p>Currently, there is a supply and demand gap in crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disruptions, and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of repairing the gap is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible future development path of the impact of the Ukraine conflict, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, regarding the next stage of crude oil price trends, we outlook them by scenario and provide technical levels: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1. Foreword: Where are crude oil prices headed?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, reaching over $120 per barrel as of March 9. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and the supply-demand gap, which has some reason, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2. Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This section examines the historical shock response patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\" and, based on these historical patterns, establishes a trend expectation framework for the current round of crude oil price shock response patterns.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Taking into account the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the First Oil Crisis, the Second Oil Crisis, the Third Oil Crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We provide a brief overview of past geopolitical conflicts to provide a basis for our subsequent classification of the impact patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\". We mainly focus on the duration of geopolitical conflicts, the areas affected, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution.</p><p><b>(1) Cuban Crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting approximately 3 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the United States, the former Soviet Union, and Cuba; affecting the Caribbean region, which is not a major global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Missile and nuclear weapons deployment issues, the United States raised the war readiness level to Level II, peaceful resolution, no open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The First Oil Crisis/Fourth Middle East War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union. The Middle East is the world's most important crude oil producing region. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Local wars with many participating countries and high short-term intensity. The United States raised its war readiness level to Level III and redefined its borders and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) The Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Iran, Iraq, the United States, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: conflicts between major regional powers, high-intensity local wars, and continued hostility after a hot war.</p><p><b>(4) The Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting approximately 8 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States raised its war readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a minor cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the UN resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing of Yugoslavia/Kosovo War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, the Balkans, and further Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gaining overwhelming military superiority, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrating after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Conflict in Georgia</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are Georgia, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: Short-term localized conflict, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia declares recognition of some regional independence, while the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, and Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Short-term localized instability, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced its recognition of some regions joining Russia, while the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Conflict in Ukraine (as of 9 March 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak phase/time: February 2022 - present, still in military conflict.</p><p>To date, the main countries/regions affected are: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>As of now, the main forms of conflict/resolution are: regional military conflicts and negotiations are underway simultaneously; Russia has raised its strategic weapons readiness level to a special state; the United States has raised its combat readiness level to Level III; the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system; and the United States has announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil and natural gas. However, as of now, EU countries such as Germany have not explicitly announced that they will follow suit.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trends amid geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the affected areas, the intensity of the confrontation, and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the following 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict - crude oil price\" can be mainly divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative increase of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical examples include the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. Typical characteristics include high-intensity military conflicts or escalating into localized wars, conflicts lasting at least four months, crude oil supply being involved in the conflict-affected areas, and some cases involving embargoes by crude oil-exporting countries driving up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, oil prices begin to fall within 1-3 months of the outbreak of the event, and then fall significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical examples include the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict, and the Crimean crisis. Typical characteristics include a relatively rapid phased settlement, either one side of the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some monetary dominant countries are stabilizing oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although oil prices have declined, they have not fluctuated significantly, and the long-term impact is not significant. A typical example is the Cuban Missile Crisis.</b>The typical characteristics are that the events are highly sudden. Although there is significant short-term pressure, they are resolved relatively quickly (within one month). There are no major crude oil-producing areas where the events occur, and they do not escalate into a hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types, we proportionally map the corresponding \"geopolitical shocks - oil price response\" trends to the current time in Ukraine. As shown in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend of \"getting a quick solution in the short term\" and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick solution - oil price decline\" patterns, namely Scenario 0 Cuban Crisis, Scenario 5 Georgian Conflict, and Scenario 6 Crimean Crisis, have all deviated to some extent from the current crude oil price trend.</p><p><b>(2) The next stage of oil price trends, based on historical patterns, depends heavily on whether a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, that is, between March and May.</b>Historically, if a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, it is possible to follow a pattern similar to the third oil crisis in Scenario 3, with oil prices gradually falling from June, giving back previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) Historically, if the conflict cannot be resolved by May at the latest, oil prices may see a significant cumulative increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the historical scenarios of Scenario 1, the first oil crisis, Scenario 2, the second oil crisis, and Scenario 4, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, when applied to the current impact on Ukraine, oil prices may break through $160/barrel in mid-2022 and rise to $190-230/barrel by the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) We also calculated the Fibonacci percentile based on the historical impact response fluctuations and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure and resistance levels for this round, from low to high:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Current crude oil supply and demand pattern and potential impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>Following the previous section's examination of geopolitical shock responses to crude oil prices, this section examines the current global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and the potential impact on the crude oil market of Russia, a key player in the geopolitical conflict.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil supply situation reveals that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side has not yet fully recovered.</b>Looking at global daily crude oil production, the current global total supply is still somewhat lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for approximately 11.4%, Iran for approximately 3.6%, and the United States for approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy brings a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>By the end of 2021, the United States' own crude oil production had exceeded 90% of its domestic crude oil consumption. Since breaking through 50% for the first time in 2012, the United States' self-sufficiency rate in crude oil consumption has continued to improve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: shortfall and declining inventories</b></p><p>Currently, examining global crude oil demand reveals the following:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for rising oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has consistently exceeded aggregate supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Based on past experience, crude oil prices have always been dominated by above-average prices during periods of excessive demand and supply gaps.</p><p><b>(2) The impact on Ukraine may further increase the current mismatch between crude oil supply and demand.</b>The current conflict in Ukraine has primarily impacted crude oil production in the short term, and coupled with previous supply chain disruptions, it has brought further pressure on the supply and demand imbalance in the short term. However, it should also be noted that with rising oil prices, it remains to be seen when the potential supply-boosting and demand-suppressing effects will lead to gap filling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Crude oil inventories are significantly low.</b>Most major crude oil-consuming countries have reduced their inventories and are at low levels, further boosting the demand for crude oil inventory replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) Russia's export product composition is relatively concentrated in commodities such as crude oil.</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly commodities, and it is an important exporter of metals such as crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel, wheat, and fertilizers. The top 15 export items by export value are: 1-5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, and diesel; 6-10: Liquid fuels, ferrous metals, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed timber, mixed fertilizers, inorganic nitrogen fertilizers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade is mainly with Europe and Asia.</b></p><p>As shown in Charts 12 and 13, as of the end of 2021, my country and Germany were Russia's largest trading partners, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade, respectively. The United States and the United Kingdom both account for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, at 4.4% and 3.4% respectively. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the European Union (EU), and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three main trading partners, meaning that Russia's trade is mainly conducted in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 Possible impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>According to an Associated Press report on March 9th, Beijing time, US President Biden announced a ban on US imports of Russian crude oil and natural gas. As of 2:00 PM, the UK had indicated it would consider following suit, while Germany and other European countries had not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared to the US and UK, it is more costly for EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo.</b></p><p>In terms of crude oil self-sufficiency rates, both the United States and the United Kingdom have crude oil self-sufficiency rates of around 90%. If production is further expanded, the self-sufficiency rate can be increased to over 100%. Historically, the United Kingdom's crude oil self-sufficiency rate has been higher than 100% for a long time. Currently, US shale oil production is still lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, and there is some room for increased production.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia exports a large amount of crude oil. If there is an embargo, it is difficult to avoid a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of global total production capacity, regardless of geopolitical factors and transportation costs, the United States may still be able to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is approximately 11 million barrels per day, and its exports are approximately 4-7 million barrels per day. In terms of both total production and exports, its share of global crude oil supply and exports is about 11%. Under the most extreme scenario, a complete embargo would create a gap of 4-7 million barrels per day in global daily crude oil consumption, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, Iran and Venezuela, which are still under US sanctions, have crude oil exports that are approximately 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day currently, and there is still room for increased production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of a potential crude oil embargo is uneven, and continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures than the UK and the US.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the final section of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and patterns of \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, and, based on the current situation, provide an outlook on possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market patterns after the \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Chart 18, when reviewing the market patterns following each \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock, it can be found that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the shock is highly correlated with the pace of US rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency of crude oil prices relative to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator for interest rate decisions in practice. From the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when a shock occurs, the annual oil price trend and the direction of the target interest rate adjustment are highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices in the year following the shock is highly consistent with the trend of yields.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or year after most conflicts, the US economic growth rate declined or even fell into recession territory.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at global economic growth in the year and the year after the conflict, most of the time, in most countries and regions, the actual growth results were lower than the expected figures before the conflict. However, it should be noted that the distribution of this downward revision is often uneven—the parties involved in the conflict and the regional economies in which they are located tend to revise downward more significantly, followed by economic and trade partners, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible Future Developments of the Current \"Geopolitical-Oil\" Impact on Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Taking into account the impact patterns of previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the following regarding the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukraine conflict:</b></p><p><b>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, Russia's main demands still differ significantly from the US position. Currently, as the duration of regional military conflicts increases, oil prices are moving away from the \"short-term conflict - oil price decline\" pattern. If a settlement cannot be reached within the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the \"continuous conflict - oil price rise\" pattern is increasing. At the same time, unlike in the past, the United States, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and technology, is imposing comprehensive sanctions and embargoes on Russia in various fields such as finance, trade and technology. These sanctions and confrontations have further affected the global industrial chain and production system, and disrupted the global economic growth and inflation environment.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</b>Due to the disruption of global supply chains caused by the conflict, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively less inflation risk. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to \"stability is progress\" and \"self-reliance\". Considerations to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises and the stable value of the RMB will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainties, and pandemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646904227423","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere will crude oil prices go in the next stage?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">宏观闻涛声</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-10 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b></p><p>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates. We discussed eight major geopolitical shocks currently experienced by the crude oil market, including: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the conflict in Georgia, the Crimean crisis, and the current conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is analyzed.</p><p><b>Regarding previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main types of impact response. The first category involves a significant increase in oil prices, with the increase reaching around 150%-200%. The second category involves oil prices rising on the monthly chart before falling back, with a pullback/retracement range of around 40%-60%. The third category involves short-term fluctuations in oil prices with insignificant long-term impact.</p><p><b>Regarding the current and next stages of global crude oil supply and demand, we believe that:</b></p><p>Currently, there is a supply and demand gap in crude oil. Geopolitical games, industrial chain disruptions, and potential sanctions have all affected the filling of this gap. The distribution of the burden of the gap is uneven, and the process of repairing the gap is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible future development path of the impact of the Ukraine conflict, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, regarding the next stage of crude oil price trends, we outlook them by scenario and provide technical levels: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1. Foreword: Where are crude oil prices headed?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, global crude oil prices have continued to rise, reaching over $120 per barrel as of March 9. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil prices is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and the supply-demand gap, which has some reason, but it also faces high volatility and uncertainty.</p><p><b>How should we understand the current crude oil price trend? Where will crude oil prices go in the next stage?</b>In the current complex and volatile global environment, we analyze geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structures to forecast the potential trends in crude oil prices and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates.</p><p><b>2. Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trends</b></p><p>This section examines the historical shock response patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\" and, based on these historical patterns, establishes a trend expectation framework for the current round of crude oil price shock response patterns.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts currently experienced by the crude oil market</b></p><p>Taking into account the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the First Oil Crisis, the Second Oil Crisis, the Third Oil Crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimean crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We provide a brief overview of past geopolitical conflicts to provide a basis for our subsequent classification of the impact patterns of \"geopolitical conflicts - crude oil prices\". We mainly focus on the duration of geopolitical conflicts, the areas affected, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution.</p><p><b>(1) Cuban Crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting approximately 3 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the United States, the former Soviet Union, and Cuba; affecting the Caribbean region, which is not a major global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Missile and nuclear weapons deployment issues, the United States raised the war readiness level to Level II, peaceful resolution, no open hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The First Oil Crisis/Fourth Middle East War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States, and the former Soviet Union. The Middle East is the world's most important crude oil producing region. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Local wars with many participating countries and high short-term intensity. The United States raised its war readiness level to Level III and redefined its borders and territories after the hot war.</p><p><b>(3) The Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Iran, Iraq, the United States, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: conflicts between major regional powers, high-intensity local wars, and continued hostility after a hot war.</p><p><b>(4) The Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting approximately 8 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iraq, the United States, Kuwait, and the Middle East, the world's most important crude oil-producing region.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States raised its war readiness level to Level II, severely damaged Iraq at a minor cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the UN resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO bombing of Yugoslavia/Kosovo War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: the former Yugoslavia, the United States, NATO, the Balkans, and further Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflicts, short-term local wars, NATO led by the United States gaining overwhelming military superiority, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrating after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Conflict in Georgia</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are Georgia, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution forms: Short-term localized conflict, Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia declares recognition of some regional independence, while the United States and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>The main countries/regions affected are: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, and Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>Main conflict/resolution methods: Short-term localized instability, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced its recognition of some regions joining Russia, while the United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Conflict in Ukraine (as of 9 March 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak phase/time: February 2022 - present, still in military conflict.</p><p>To date, the main countries/regions affected are: Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and NATO, as well as Eastern Europe and the NATO-Russia border issue.</p><p>As of now, the main forms of conflict/resolution are: regional military conflicts and negotiations are underway simultaneously; Russia has raised its strategic weapons readiness level to a special state; the United States has raised its combat readiness level to Level III; the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using the SWIFT system; and the United States has announced a ban on the import of Russian crude oil and natural gas. However, as of now, EU countries such as Germany have not explicitly announced that they will follow suit.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trends amid geopolitical conflicts</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of the conflict, the affected areas, the intensity of the confrontation, and the form of resolution, when considering the crude oil price trend during the same period and the following 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict - crude oil price\" can be mainly divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, oil prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative increase of about 150%-200%.</b>Typical examples include the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. Typical characteristics include high-intensity military conflicts or escalating into localized wars, conflicts lasting at least four months, crude oil supply being involved in the conflict-affected areas, and some cases involving embargoes by crude oil-exporting countries driving up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, oil prices begin to fall within 1-3 months of the outbreak of the event, and then fall significantly, with a cumulative decline of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical examples include the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict, and the Crimean crisis. Typical characteristics include a relatively rapid phased settlement, either one side of the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is generally controllable. At the same time, some monetary dominant countries are stabilizing oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) In the third category, although oil prices have declined, they have not fluctuated significantly, and the long-term impact is not significant. A typical example is the Cuban Missile Crisis.</b>The typical characteristics are that the events are highly sudden. Although there is significant short-term pressure, they are resolved relatively quickly (within one month). There are no major crude oil-producing areas where the events occur, and they do not escalate into a hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types, we proportionally map the corresponding \"geopolitical shocks - oil price response\" trends to the current time in Ukraine. As shown in Figure 5, we believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend of \"getting a quick solution in the short term\" and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick solution - oil price decline\" patterns, namely Scenario 0 Cuban Crisis, Scenario 5 Georgian Conflict, and Scenario 6 Crimean Crisis, have all deviated to some extent from the current crude oil price trend.</p><p><b>(2) The next stage of oil price trends, based on historical patterns, depends heavily on whether a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, that is, between March and May.</b>Historically, if a settlement can be reached within 3-4 months, it is possible to follow a pattern similar to the third oil crisis in Scenario 3, with oil prices gradually falling from June, giving back previous gains.</p><p><b>(3) Historically, if the conflict cannot be resolved by May at the latest, oil prices may see a significant cumulative increase of about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the historical scenarios of Scenario 1, the first oil crisis, Scenario 2, the second oil crisis, and Scenario 4, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, when applied to the current impact on Ukraine, oil prices may break through $160/barrel in mid-2022 and rise to $190-230/barrel by the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) We also calculated the Fibonacci percentile based on the historical impact response fluctuations and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure and resistance levels for this round, from low to high:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Current crude oil supply and demand pattern and potential impact of the Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>Following the previous section's examination of geopolitical shock responses to crude oil prices, this section examines the current global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and the potential impact on the crude oil market of Russia, a key player in the geopolitical conflict.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>Currently, examining the global crude oil supply situation reveals that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side has not yet fully recovered.</b>Looking at global daily crude oil production, the current global total supply is still somewhat lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and the recent situation it is facing has brought a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for approximately 11.4%, Iran for approximately 3.6%, and the United States for approximately 20.3%.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy brings a high degree of uncertainty to future supply.</b>By the end of 2021, the United States' own crude oil production had exceeded 90% of its domestic crude oil consumption. Since breaking through 50% for the first time in 2012, the United States' self-sufficiency rate in crude oil consumption has continued to improve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude oil demand: shortfall and declining inventories</b></p><p>Currently, examining global crude oil demand reveals the following:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for rising oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has consistently exceeded aggregate supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap have reached or approached historical record levels. Based on past experience, crude oil prices have always been dominated by above-average prices during periods of excessive demand and supply gaps.</p><p><b>(2) The impact on Ukraine may further increase the current mismatch between crude oil supply and demand.</b>The current conflict in Ukraine has primarily impacted crude oil production in the short term, and coupled with previous supply chain disruptions, it has brought further pressure on the supply and demand imbalance in the short term. However, it should also be noted that with rising oil prices, it remains to be seen when the potential supply-boosting and demand-suppressing effects will lead to gap filling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Crude oil inventories are significantly low.</b>Most major crude oil-consuming countries have reduced their inventories and are at low levels, further boosting the demand for crude oil inventory replenishment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) Russia's export product composition is relatively concentrated in commodities such as crude oil.</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly commodities, and it is an important exporter of metals such as crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel, wheat, and fertilizers. The top 15 export items by export value are: 1-5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, and diesel; 6-10: Liquid fuels, ferrous metals, coal, raw aluminum, semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed timber, mixed fertilizers, inorganic nitrogen fertilizers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade is mainly with Europe and Asia.</b></p><p>As shown in Charts 12 and 13, as of the end of 2021, my country and Germany were Russia's largest trading partners, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade, respectively. The United States and the United Kingdom both account for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, at 4.4% and 3.4% respectively. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the European Union (EU), and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three main trading partners, meaning that Russia's trade is mainly conducted in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 Possible impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>According to an Associated Press report on March 9th, Beijing time, US President Biden announced a ban on US imports of Russian crude oil and natural gas. As of 2:00 PM, the UK had indicated it would consider following suit, while Germany and other European countries had not yet made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) Compared to the US and UK, it is more costly for EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo.</b></p><p>In terms of crude oil self-sufficiency rates, both the United States and the United Kingdom have crude oil self-sufficiency rates of around 90%. If production is further expanded, the self-sufficiency rate can be increased to over 100%. Historically, the United Kingdom's crude oil self-sufficiency rate has been higher than 100% for a long time. Currently, US shale oil production is still lower than the level before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, and there is some room for increased production.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia exports a large amount of crude oil. If there is an embargo, it is difficult to avoid a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of global total production capacity, regardless of geopolitical factors and transportation costs, the United States may still be able to stabilize the supply gap.</b></p><p>Currently, Russia's crude oil production is approximately 11 million barrels per day, and its exports are approximately 4-7 million barrels per day. In terms of both total production and exports, its share of global crude oil supply and exports is about 11%. Under the most extreme scenario, a complete embargo would create a gap of 4-7 million barrels per day in global daily crude oil consumption, accounting for approximately 4.5%-7.9% of total global daily crude oil consumption.</p><p>Currently, Iran and Venezuela, which are still under US sanctions, have crude oil exports that are approximately 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than before the sanctions, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day currently, and there is still room for increased production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact of a potential crude oil embargo is uneven, and continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures than the UK and the US.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the final section of this article, we summarize the potential market impact patterns and patterns of \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, and, based on the current situation, provide an outlook on possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market patterns after the \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Chart 18, when reviewing the market patterns following each \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shock, it can be found that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the shock is highly correlated with the pace of US rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency of crude oil prices relative to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, crude oil prices can be used as a forward-looking indicator for interest rate decisions in practice. From the perspective of geopolitical shocks, when a shock occurs, the annual oil price trend and the direction of the target interest rate adjustment are highly consistent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield after the shock is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil prices in the year following the shock is highly consistent with the trend of yields.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or year after most conflicts, the US economic growth rate declined or even fell into recession territory.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at global economic growth in the year and the year after the conflict, most of the time, in most countries and regions, the actual growth results were lower than the expected figures before the conflict. However, it should be noted that the distribution of this downward revision is often uneven—the parties involved in the conflict and the regional economies in which they are located tend to revise downward more significantly, followed by economic and trade partners, and then other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible Future Developments of the Current \"Geopolitical-Oil\" Impact on Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Taking into account the impact patterns of previous \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the following regarding the possible subsequent development path of the current Ukraine conflict:</b></p><p><b>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the near-term inflation risk globally, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, Russia's main demands still differ significantly from the US position. Currently, as the duration of regional military conflicts increases, oil prices are moving away from the \"short-term conflict - oil price decline\" pattern. If a settlement cannot be reached within the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the \"continuous conflict - oil price rise\" pattern is increasing. At the same time, unlike in the past, the United States, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and technology, is imposing comprehensive sanctions and embargoes on Russia in various fields such as finance, trade and technology. These sanctions and confrontations have further affected the global industrial chain and production system, and disrupted the global economic growth and inflation environment.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressures and economic risks, it does not mean that my country's inflation and interest rates are facing a proportionally higher upward risk. In fact, the upward pressure on my country's annual interest rates may be relatively weakening.</b>Due to the disruption of global supply chains caused by the conflict, regardless of whether crude oil prices rise, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, my country will face relatively less inflation risk. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, policies will pay more attention to \"stability is progress\" and \"self-reliance\". Considerations to reduce the actual financing costs of enterprises and the stable value of the RMB will provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) Current crude oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b>The overall situation is supported by both geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand gaps;<b>ii) If this conflict can be effectively resolved before April-May,</b>Then crude oil prices may still fall back to the lower range of $60-90 per barrel;<b>(iii) If that conflict is partially resolved around May,</b>For example, if military operations only slow down, crude oil prices may rise to a high range of $160-190 per barrel on the annual moving average.<b>iv) If the conflict continues to intensify after May,</b>Then crude oil prices could potentially rise to a historical record level of $190-230 per barrel on the annual moving average;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key Fibonacci retracement levels for upward and downward crude oil prices, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>Geopolitical, economic, inflation, overseas uncertainties, and pandemic risks</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA\">宏观闻涛声</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137319987","content_text":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲击，包括：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。同时，对全球原油供需格局进行了分析。对于历次“地缘-原油”冲击，我们认为：主要有三种冲击响应类型。第一类，油价显著上行，幅度可达150%-200%左右。第二类，油价月线上行后回落，回撤幅度可达40%-60%左右。第三类，油价短线波动，长期影响不显著。对于当前和下一阶段全球原油供需格局，我们认为：当前原油存在供需缺口，地缘博弈、产业链扰动和潜在的制裁都影响了这一缺口的回补，缺口负担的分布是不均的，缺口修复的进程高度受地缘形势影响。对于此次乌克兰冲突冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们认为：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。（3）最后，对于下一阶段原油价格走势，我们分场景展望，并给出技术面点位：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。1 前言：原油价格走向何方？2022年2月乌克兰冲突爆发以来，全球原油价格持续上行，截至3月9日，已推升至超过120美元/桶水平。我们认为，当前的原油价格较快上涨，主要受地缘冲突和供需缺口双重因素推动，有一定合理性，但也面临较高波动性和高度不确定性。如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。2 历史上的地缘冲突冲与原油价格走势本部分考量历史上“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应模式，并基于历史模式，建立对本轮原油价格冲击响应模式的走势预期框架。2.1 当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲突综合考虑对原油市场的影响和地缘冲突的烈度，二战以后建立的当前原油市场，至少经历过八次较显著的地缘冲突，分别是：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。我们简单概述历次地缘冲突，为我们后续对“地缘冲突-原油价格”影响模式的分类提供基础，主要关注地缘冲突的：持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式。（1）古巴危机主要爆发阶段/时间：1962年8月-10月，持续约3个月。主要影响国家/地区：美国、前苏联、古巴，影响加勒比海地区，非全球原油主产区。主要冲突/解决形式：导弹和核武器部署问题，美国提升战备等级至II级，和平解决、没有公开发生热战。（2）第一次石油危机/第四次中东战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1973年10月-1974年3月，持续约6个月。主要影响国家/地区：埃及等中东地区阿拉伯国家、以色列、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区，OPEC在1973年10月宣布对部分国家石油禁运。主要冲突/解决形式：参与国较多，短期烈度较高的局部战争，美国提升战备等级至III级，热战后重新划定国界和领土。（3）第二次石油危机/伊朗革命/两伊战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1979年1月-1981年2月，持续约26个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊朗、伊拉克、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区大国冲突，较高烈度的局部战争，热战后持续处于敌对状态。（4）第三次石油危机/海湾战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1990年8月-1991年3月，持续约8个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊拉克、美国、科威特，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国提升战备等级至II级，以轻微代价重创伊拉克，军事上取得压倒性优势，伊拉克接受联合国决议撤军。（5）北约轰炸南联盟/科索沃战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1999年3月-6月，持续约4个月。主要影响国家/地区：前南联盟、美国、北约，影响巴尔干地区，进一步影响中东欧地区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国为首的北约在军事上取得压倒性优势，前南联盟于战后解体。（6）格鲁吉亚冲突主要爆发阶段/时间：2008年8月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部冲突，俄罗斯在军事上取得压倒性优势，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区独立，美国和北约不予承认。（7）克里米亚危机主要爆发阶段/时间：2014年3月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：克里米亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部动荡，未有大规模军事冲突，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区加入俄罗斯，美国和北约不予承认。（8）乌克兰冲突（截至2022年3月9日）截至目前，主要爆发阶段/时间：2022年2月-至今，尚在军事冲突中。截止目前，主要影响国家/地区：乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。截至目前，主要冲突/解决形式：地区军事冲突和谈判同时进行中，俄罗斯提升战略武器备战等级进入特殊状态，美国提升战备等级至III级，美国和欧盟宣布禁止俄罗斯部分机构使用SWIFT系统等制裁，美国宣布禁止俄罗斯原油和天然气进口，但截至目前德国等欧盟国家尚未明确宣布跟进。2.2 地缘冲突下的原油价格走势基于上文对冲突持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式的分析，当考量同期和其后24个月的原油价格走势，我们认为，“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应走势，主要可以分为三类：（1）第一类，油价显著上行，累计上行幅度可达150%-200%左右。典型代表为，第一次、第二次石油危机和北约轰炸南联盟。典型特征为，皆有烈度较高的军事冲突、或升级为局部战争，冲突持续时间至少超过4个月，冲突影响地区涉及原油供给，同时，部分存在原油出口国禁运推升油价情况。（2）第二类，油价在事件爆发1-3个月内开始回落，之后显著回落，累计回落幅度可达40%-60%左右。典型代表为，第三次石油危机、格鲁吉亚冲突和克里米亚危机。典型特征为，事件相对较快取得阶段性和解、或军事冲突一方存在压倒性优势、或烈度皆整体可控，同时，部分存在货币主导国平抑油价情况。（3）第三类，油价虽有下行，但没有大幅波动，长期影响不显著。典型代表为，古巴危机。典型特征为，事件突发性较强，虽然短线压力较大、但解决相对较快（1个月内），没有发生的主要原油产区，没有升级为热战。综合三种类型，将相应“地缘冲击-油价响应”走势等比例映射至当前乌克兰时间，如图表5中的不同场景走势，我们认为：（1）当前的原油价格走势，已初步偏离了历史上“得到短期快速解决”的走势模式，正在展现继续上行压力。历史上，主要的三次“快速解决-油价回落”模式，即情景0古巴危机、情景5格鲁吉亚冲突和情景6克里米亚危机，均已经与当前的原油价格走势出现一定幅度背离。（2）下一阶段油价走势，历史模式看，高度取决于是否能在3-4个月内，即3月至5月期间，取得和解。历史上，如能在3-4个月内取得和解，则有可能走出情景3第三次石油危机相似走势，油价从6月起逐步回落，吐回前期涨幅。（3）历史模式看，如本次冲突无法在至迟5月之前取得和解，则油价将可能走出累计100%-200%左右的显著涨幅。即，参照历史上的情景1第一次石油危机、情景2第二次石油危机和情景4北约轰炸南联盟，当映射到本次乌克兰冲击，油价将可能在2022年中即升破160美元/桶，在年末升至190-230美元/桶水平。（4）我们同时测算了基于历史上历次冲击响应波动幅度的斐波那契分位，并折算为本轮对应的技术面压力阻力位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。3 当前原油供需格局和可能的俄罗斯原油禁运影响在上节考察原油价格的地缘冲击响应后，本节考察当前的全球原油供需基本面，以及地缘冲突的重要参与方俄罗斯的可能原油市场影响。3.1 原油供给：相对不足当前，考查全球原油总供给情况，可以发现：（1）供给侧整体尚未完全恢复。从全球原油日产量看，当前全球总供给仍一定幅度低于2019年新冠疫情前水平。（2）俄罗斯是重要原油生产国，近期其面临的局势，对未来供给带来较高不确定。从全球生产份额看，截至2021年末，俄罗斯约为11.4%，伊朗约为3.6%，美国约为20.3%。（3）美国已基本实现原油自给自足，其后续原油政策对未来供给带来较高不确定。截至2021年末，美国自有原油生产量已超过本国原油消费量的90%，从2012年首次升破50%后，美国原油消费自给率持续提升。3.2 原油需求：缺口和库存下行当前，考查全球原油需求情况，可以发现：（1）需求超出供给，为油价上行提供了基本面支持。2021年以来，全球总需求持续高于总供给，缺口持续的时间与幅度皆已达到或接近历史记录水平。过往经验看，历次需求超出，供给缺口时期，原油价格皆以上行为主。（2）乌克兰冲击的或将进一步增加当前原油供需错位。本次乌克兰冲突，短线主要冲击原油生产侧，叠加前期产业链扰动，带来短线进一步供需失衡压力。但也应注意，随油价上行，潜在的供给促进和需求抑制效应何时可带来缺口回补，需后续观察。（3）原油库存低位情况显著。主要原油消费国库存大多处于去化和低库存状态，进一步推升了原油的补库存需求。3.3 俄罗斯的主要贸易格局（1）俄罗斯的出口产品构成，较集中于原油等大宗商品俄罗斯的出口，主要以大宗商品为主，是原油、天然气、铝钢等金属、小麦、化肥等领域的重要出口国。按出口金额，前15大出口品，分别为：1~5：原油、石油产品、天然气、机械和工具、柴油；6-10：液体燃料、铁类金属、煤炭、生铝、半成品碳钢；11-15：小麦及混合麦、扁碳钢、加工木材、混合肥料、无机氮肥。（2）俄罗斯的贸易往来，以欧洲和亚洲地区为主如图表12和图表13，截至2021年底：我国和德国，是俄罗斯份额占比最高的贸易伙伴国，分别占俄罗斯进出口贸易总额的17.9%和7.3%；美国和英国，占俄罗斯净出口贸易份额皆未超过5%，分别为4.4%和3.4%；亚太经合组织（APEC）、欧盟（EU）和独联体（CIS），是俄罗斯最主要的三个贸易伙伴组织，即俄罗斯贸易往来以欧洲和亚洲地区为主。3.4 可能的对俄原油出口制裁的影响北京时间3月9日，美联社消息，美国总统拜登宣布禁止美国进口俄罗斯原油和天然气等产品，截至下午14.00，英国表示将考虑跟进，德国等欧洲大陆国家尚未有明确表态。（1）相对于美英，德国和法国等欧盟国家加入原油禁运的成本更高从原油自给率看，美国和英国的原油自给率皆在90%左右，如进一步扩大生产，有能力将自给率提升至100%以上——英国历史上原油自给率曾较长期高于100%，当前美国页岩油生产仍低于2019年新冠疫情前水平，有一定增产空间。（2）俄罗斯原油出口量较大，如禁运，对市场较显著的短线冲击难以避免，但从全球总产能层面，不考虑地缘因素和运输成本，美国仍有可能对供给缺口进行平抑。当前，俄罗斯原油产量约在1100万桶/日，出口规模约在400-700万桶/日，无论以总产量、或出口量看，对全球原油供给、或出口的份额占比，都在约11%左右。在最极端情况的假设下，如完全禁运，则全球原油日消费将新增400-700万桶/日的缺口，约占全球原油日消费总量的4.5%-7.9%。当前，仍受美国制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉，其原油出口，分别比制裁前低约150-200万桶/日和200-250万桶/日。沙特方面，原油出口比新冠疫情前仍低约100万桶/日。美国方面，其自身原油出口从2016年的不到60万桶/日，上行到当前的超过300万桶/日，并仍有增产空间。但仍应注意，潜在的原油禁运的影响分布是不均衡的，相对于英美，德国、法国等欧洲大陆国家将承受更多的潜在风险和压力。4 小结与展望在本文的最后部分，我们总结“地缘-原油”冲击的潜在市场影响模式和规律，并基于当前形势，对后续可能的原油价格走势，及其潜在的衍生影响，进行展望。4.1 “地缘-原油”冲击后的可能市场模式如图表18，当回顾历次“地缘-原油”冲击后的市场模式，可以发现：（1）冲击后的原油价格走势和美国加息节奏高度相关。进一步的，由于原油价格相对美联储利率决议的更高频属性，实际操作中可以将原油价格作为议息决议的前瞻指标——从地缘冲击的视角，当冲击发生后，年线内的油价走势和目标利率调整方向高度一致。（2）冲击后的美国10Y国债收益率走势与原油价格走势高度相关。在剔除避险情绪等日线层面的短线扰动后，原油价格的月线走势在冲击发生后的年度，和收益率走向高度一致。（3）多数冲突发生的当年或下一年，美国经济增速皆有下移，甚至跌入衰退区间。进一步的，当回溯冲突发生当年和下一年的全球经济增长时，多数时候、多数国家和地区是的实际增长结果不及冲突发生前的预期数值，但应注意，这一下调的分布往往是不均的——冲突参与方和所在地域经济体往往较显著下修，其次是经济和贸易关联方，再次是其它受影响较小的国家和地区。4.2 当前乌克兰“地缘-原油”冲击的可能后续发展综合考虑历次的“地缘-原油”冲击的影响模式，对于当前乌克兰冲突，事件冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们预期如下：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。本次冲突，俄罗斯的主要诉求与美国立场仍有较显著分歧。目前，随地区军事冲突的持续时间增加，油价正在远离“短期冲突-油价回落”的模式，如不能在未来1-3个月内得到和解，则转入“持续冲突-油价上行”模式的概率在上行——同时，不同于以往情况，此次美国依赖其在全球金融、贸易和科技的主导地位，正在对俄罗斯的金融、贸易和科技等诸领域进行全方位制裁和禁运——这一制裁与对抗，进一步影响了全球产业链和生产体系，干扰了全球经济增长和通胀环境。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。由于冲突对全球产业链的扰乱，无论原油价格是否上行，冲突本身都更大概率会削弱1-2年内的局部和全球经济增长。作为全球最大生产国，我国将面临相对更小的通胀风险，由于外部环境的更高不确定性，政策将更加注重“稳就是进”和“以我为主”，降低企业实际融资成本的考量和稳健的人民币币值，将提供更好的货币政策和利率空间。（3）最后，回到原油价格走势，我们认为：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。风险提示：地缘、经济、通胀、海外不确定性和疫情风险","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952605972,"gmtCreate":1674660491696,"gmtModify":1676538951472,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Slowly ","listText":"Slowly ","text":"Slowly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952605972","repostId":"1108441041","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108441041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674657098,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108441041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-25 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | US stocks experienced a collective open low, with Microsoft falling over 3% in early trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108441041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Wednesday, January 25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, at 33,454.48. The S&P 500 opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, at 3967.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, at 11,130.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Microsoft's revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, marking its lowest growth rate since 2016, after falling more than 3%. Profits fell to $16.43 billion from $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 12%. The growth rate of its cloud business, Azure, is slowing, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>open low fell 2%.<b>Tesla will release its earnings report after the market closes today, and some analysts expect its net profit to hit a near three-year low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>The company fell more than 3%, with both Q4 revenue and net profit falling short of expectations.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%, with Q4 revenue declining 12% to $10.1 billion due to declining demand for COVID-19 testing products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and its fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>AT&T bucked the market trend, rising nearly 4% to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.61 in the fourth quarter, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the market trend, rising more than 5% after the company announced it would raise the prices of some services in 2023.</p><p>More popular Chinese concept stocks fell than rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 0.35%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 0.54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | US stocks experienced a collective open low, with Microsoft falling over 3% in early trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | US stocks experienced a collective open low, with Microsoft falling over 3% in early trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-25 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Wednesday, January 25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, at 33,454.48. The S&P 500 opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, at 3967.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, at 11,130.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Microsoft's revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was $52.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, marking its lowest growth rate since 2016, after falling more than 3%. Profits fell to $16.43 billion from $18.77 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 12%. The growth rate of its cloud business, Azure, is slowing, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>open low fell 2%.<b>Tesla will release its earnings report after the market closes today, and some analysts expect its net profit to hit a near three-year low.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>The company fell more than 3%, with both Q4 revenue and net profit falling short of expectations.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%, with Q4 revenue declining 12% to $10.1 billion due to declining demand for COVID-19 testing products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the largest drop since March 2020, and its fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>AT&T bucked the market trend, rising nearly 4% to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.61 in the fourth quarter, exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Shopify bucked the market trend, rising more than 5% after the company announced it would raise the prices of some services in 2023.</p><p>More popular Chinese concept stocks fell than rose in early trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 0.35%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 0.54%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108441041","content_text":"1月25日（周三），道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点；标普500指数开盘下跌49.00点，跌幅1.22%，报3967.95点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌203.66点，跌幅1.80%，报11130.61点。微软跌超3%，微软2023年第二财季收入为527.5亿美元，同比增长2%，创下2016年以来的最低增速；利润从上一年同期的187.7亿美元降至164.3亿美元，同比下滑12%。云业务Azure增速放缓，公司预计这种趋势可能在未来几个季度持续。特斯拉低开跌2%，特斯拉将于今日盘后公布财报，有分析师预计其净利润将创近3年新低。波音跌超3%，Q4营收和净利润均不及预期。雅培跌2%，受新冠测试产品需求下降的影响，Q4营收下滑12%至101亿美元。纳斯达克OMX交易所跌7%，创2020年3月以来最大跌幅，第四季度业绩不及预期。美国电话电报(AT&T)逆市涨近4%，第四季度调整后每股收益0.61美元，超出市场预期。Shopify逆市涨超5%，此前该公司表示2023年将提高部分服务的价格。热门中概股盘初阶段跌多涨少，阿里巴巴涨0.36%，拼多多跌0.35%，京东跌0.54%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、理想汽车跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016184355,"gmtCreate":1649149002763,"gmtModify":1676534459353,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","text":"$格林美(002340)$...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/637d8876e329a2cf71420438f1b7af1c","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016184355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":204068156846240,"gmtCreate":1690858163048,"gmtModify":1690858167258,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi there Nice to see you today ","listText":"Hi there Nice to see you today ","text":"Hi there Nice to see you today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204068156846240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
