劉洧綸 personal page - To The Moon

劉洧綸

劉洧綸

No personal profile

526Follow

12Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-06-14

👍🏻

How tight is the market? Someone shouted out that the Fed rate hike was 100 basis points

2022-05-30

👍🏻

Co-Founder Fred Ehrsam Just Bought $1.8 Million in Coinbase (COIN) Stock

2022-05-25

👍

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-16

😎

With $5.519 billion in net income, Tesla is becoming a money-making machine

2021-08-05

??

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-28

wow

Still the same smell! BlackBerry 2021 New Phone Rendering Exposed

2021-07-25

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-23

???

Louis Vuitton Announces Termination of Partnership with Kris Wu

2021-07-22

???

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-08

???

Burning money is crazy? Car Building Scares Investors Off

2021-07-02

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-02

???

Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday

2021-06-15

?

JPMorgan CEO: Has hoarded $500 billion, bargain-hunting after rate hike

2021-06-07

???

Naixue's listing does not bleed: what does it rely on to turn losses into profits?

2021-06-03

Good ?

CICC: June or a key fork in the road, the main line of global assets or return to growth

2021-05-29

RIP

Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on May 31 due to Memorial Day

2021-05-26

?

Internet Thinking Redo Educational Hardware, Netease Youdao's Way to Success

2021-05-23

RIP

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-26

??

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-22

???

Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks rebounded to close higher across the board, and U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3578562412522571","uuid":"3578562412522571","gmtCreate":1615468388765,"gmtModify":1652172640357,"name":"劉洧綸","pinyin":"劉w綸劉wei綸","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":12,"headSize":526,"tweetSize":220,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.04.20","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.88%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9052635608,"gmtCreate":1655166987504,"gmtModify":1676535573466,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052635608","repostId":"2243662491","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243662491","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655165696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243662491?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-14 08:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How tight is the market? Someone shouted out that the Fed rate hike was 100 basis points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243662491","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"继巴克莱和Jefferies预计美联储在本周三加息75个基点引起轰动后，渣打银行语出惊人：虽然预计美联储6月会议上仍将加息50个基点，但指出并不排除加息 75个基点甚至100个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Last Friday, the CPI of the United States rose by 8.6% year-on-year in May, setting a new 40-year high again, making inflation peak and bankrupt. This has led the market to re-anticipate and price the pace of the Fed's rate hike. After Barclays and Jefferies expected the Fed to make a splash at 75 basis points in rate hike this Wednesday, Steven Englander, head of global foreign exchange research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered, made even more surprising statements: While his team expects the Fed to still rate hike 50 basis points at its June meeting, he noted that it does not rule out 75 basis points or even 100 basis points in rate hike.</p><p><b>The reason for giving 75 basis points or even 100 basis points rate hike is that neither inflation nor the U.S. economy is sending a clear enough signal of slowdown to stop the Fed from rate hike 50 basis points or more in the next few meetings.</b></p><p><b>However, Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the Fed doesn't like to surprise the market, and the decline in consumer confidence in the United States is alarming, suggesting that a recession is imminent, so a 50 basis point rate hike in June is still their benchmark forecast.</b></p><p>According to Standard Chartered Bank's latest forecast, it expects the Fed's rate hike in July to be 50 basis points (previously estimated to be 25 basis points); rate hike 50 bps in September (previously expected to be zero); Originally anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike in December 2022, it is now thought that this rate hike will be brought forward to November; Originally, it was expected that the rate hike would be 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2023, but now it is thought that there will be no rate hike. Following these revisions, Standard Chartered expects the Fed's ultimate rate hike point to be 2.75%, compared with its previous forecast of 2.25%.</p><p>From Monday's market expectations, the market expects a 44% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike this Wednesday, while it expects more than seven rate hike in 25 basis points by September, that is, the market expects at least one 75 basis point rate hike in the next three months.</p><p>What does this mean for the market this week? Englander noted that with the futures market priced at about 60 basis points, the first reaction to this week's rate hike 50 basis points will be a weaker dollar and a rise in the bond market, but whether this continues will depend on the rate hike message that follows. At present, investors do more dollars and short bonds, so there are certain problems in the short term; However, if Fed Chairman Powell sticks to his hawkish stance, investors could quickly reverse short-term moves.</p><p>Conversely, if the Fed rate hike 75 basis points this Wednesday while hinting that the subsequent rate hike pace will be revised down to 25 basis points, 75 basis points for rate hike will be meaningless. Therefore, Standard Chartered believes that 75 basis points in rate hike seems likely to be accompanied by a hawkish statement, pointing out that rate hike will be 50 basis points or more at the subsequent meeting. For the possible scenario of 100 basis points, this may come from the Fed's belief that a \"Volcker moment\" is needed, but it is expected that Fed officials have not thought they have reached this point yet, so it is not expected that such radical measures are necessary.</p><p>Standard Chartered pointed out,<b>Another important reason why the Fed is unlikely to rate hike 75 basis points or more on Wednesday: the need for quantitative tightening (QT).</b>The Fed will be cautious about indicating changes in the pace of quantitative tightening. The Fed seems to have a strong underlying willingness to avoid two tightening tracks (rate hike + QT), so it is likely to send a message of stability.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How tight is the market? Someone shouted out that the Fed rate hike was 100 basis points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow tight is the market? Someone shouted out that the Fed rate hike was 100 basis points\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-14 08:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Last Friday, the CPI of the United States rose by 8.6% year-on-year in May, setting a new 40-year high again, making inflation peak and bankrupt. This has led the market to re-anticipate and price the pace of the Fed's rate hike. After Barclays and Jefferies expected the Fed to make a splash at 75 basis points in rate hike this Wednesday, Steven Englander, head of global foreign exchange research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered, made even more surprising statements: While his team expects the Fed to still rate hike 50 basis points at its June meeting, he noted that it does not rule out 75 basis points or even 100 basis points in rate hike.</p><p><b>The reason for giving 75 basis points or even 100 basis points rate hike is that neither inflation nor the U.S. economy is sending a clear enough signal of slowdown to stop the Fed from rate hike 50 basis points or more in the next few meetings.</b></p><p><b>However, Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that the Fed doesn't like to surprise the market, and the decline in consumer confidence in the United States is alarming, suggesting that a recession is imminent, so a 50 basis point rate hike in June is still their benchmark forecast.</b></p><p>According to Standard Chartered Bank's latest forecast, it expects the Fed's rate hike in July to be 50 basis points (previously estimated to be 25 basis points); rate hike 50 bps in September (previously expected to be zero); Originally anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike in December 2022, it is now thought that this rate hike will be brought forward to November; Originally, it was expected that the rate hike would be 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2023, but now it is thought that there will be no rate hike. Following these revisions, Standard Chartered expects the Fed's ultimate rate hike point to be 2.75%, compared with its previous forecast of 2.25%.</p><p>From Monday's market expectations, the market expects a 44% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike this Wednesday, while it expects more than seven rate hike in 25 basis points by September, that is, the market expects at least one 75 basis point rate hike in the next three months.</p><p>What does this mean for the market this week? Englander noted that with the futures market priced at about 60 basis points, the first reaction to this week's rate hike 50 basis points will be a weaker dollar and a rise in the bond market, but whether this continues will depend on the rate hike message that follows. At present, investors do more dollars and short bonds, so there are certain problems in the short term; However, if Fed Chairman Powell sticks to his hawkish stance, investors could quickly reverse short-term moves.</p><p>Conversely, if the Fed rate hike 75 basis points this Wednesday while hinting that the subsequent rate hike pace will be revised down to 25 basis points, 75 basis points for rate hike will be meaningless. Therefore, Standard Chartered believes that 75 basis points in rate hike seems likely to be accompanied by a hawkish statement, pointing out that rate hike will be 50 basis points or more at the subsequent meeting. For the possible scenario of 100 basis points, this may come from the Fed's belief that a \"Volcker moment\" is needed, but it is expected that Fed officials have not thought they have reached this point yet, so it is not expected that such radical measures are necessary.</p><p>Standard Chartered pointed out,<b>Another important reason why the Fed is unlikely to rate hike 75 basis points or more on Wednesday: the need for quantitative tightening (QT).</b>The Fed will be cautious about indicating changes in the pace of quantitative tightening. The Fed seems to have a strong underlying willingness to avoid two tightening tracks (rate hike + QT), so it is likely to send a message of stability.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661859\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661859","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243662491","content_text":"上周五美国5月CPI同比上升8.6%，再次刷新40年新高，令通胀见顶论破产。这让市场对美联储加息步伐进行了重新预期和定价。继巴克莱和Jefferies预计美联储在本周三加息75个基点引起轰动后，渣打银行全球外汇研究和北美宏观策略负责人Steven Englander更加语出惊人：虽然他的团队预计美联储6月会议上仍将加息50个基点，但他指出，并不排除加息 75个基点甚至100个基点。之所以给出75个基点甚至100个基点加息，渣打银行的理由是，无论是通胀还是美国经济，都没有发出足够明确的放缓信号，来阻止美联储在接下来的几次会议上加息50个基点或更多。不过渣打银行指出，美联储不喜欢给市场意外，而且美国消费者信心的下降令人震惊，暗示经济衰退迫在眉睫，因此6月加息50个基点仍然是他们的基准预测。根据渣打银行的最新预测，其预计美联储7月份加息50个基点（之前预计为25个基点）；9月份加息50个基点（之前预计为零）；原本预计2022年12月加息25个基点，现在认为这一加息会提前到11月；原本预计2023年二季度加息25 个基点，现在认为不会加息。经过这些修改，渣打银行预计美联储的终极加息点位为2.75%，此前的预测为2.25%。从周一的市场预期来看，市场预计本周三加息75个基点的可能性为44%，而预计到9月时，按25个基点为单位，有7次以上的加息，也就是说，在接下来的三个月里，市场预计至少有一次75个基点的加息。这对本周市场意味着什么？Englander指出，在期货市场定价为约60个基点的情况下，对本周加息50个基点的第一反应将是美元走软和债市上涨，但这种情况是否持续将取决于随后传递的加息信息。当前投资者做多美元，做空债券，因此短期内存在一定的问题；然而，如果美联储主席鲍威尔坚持鹰派立场，投资者们可能会迅速扭转短期走势。相反，如果本周三美联储加息75个基点，同时暗示随后的加息步伐将下调至25个基点，那么加息75个基点将毫无意义。因此渣打认为，加息75个基点似乎可能伴随着鹰派表态，指出在随后的会议上加息50个基点或更多。对于100个基点的可能情况，这也许来自美联储认为需要“沃尔克时刻”，但预计美联储官员们还没有认为自己走到这一步，故预计没有必要采取如此激进的举措。渣打指出，美联储不太可能在周三加息75个基点甚至更多的另外重要原因是：需要量化紧缩（QT）。美联储将谨慎地表明量化紧缩步伐的变化。美联储似乎有强烈的潜在意愿，避免出现两条紧缩轨道（加息+QT），因此很可能传递稳定的信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SPY":1,"DJX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".DJI":1,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".IXIC":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024656479,"gmtCreate":1653869656491,"gmtModify":1676535353285,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024656479","repostId":"1190992024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190992024","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653866406,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190992024?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-30 07:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Co-Founder Fred Ehrsam Just Bought $1.8 Million in Coinbase (COIN) Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190992024","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) co-founder Fred Ehrsam purchased 30,030 shares of COIN stock on May 24The shar","content":"<div>\n<p>Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) co-founder Fred Ehrsam purchased 30,030 shares of COIN stock on May 24The shares were purchased at an average price of $60.60Ehrsam purchased the shares through ParadigmShares of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/co-founder-fred-ehrsam-just-bought-1-8-million-in-coinbase-coin-stock/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Co-Founder Fred Ehrsam Just Bought $1.8 Million in Coinbase (COIN) Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCo-Founder Fred Ehrsam Just Bought $1.8 Million in Coinbase (COIN) Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-30 07:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/co-founder-fred-ehrsam-just-bought-1-8-million-in-coinbase-coin-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) co-founder Fred Ehrsam purchased 30,030 shares of COIN stock on May 24The shares were purchased at an average price of $60.60Ehrsam purchased the shares through ParadigmShares of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/co-founder-fred-ehrsam-just-bought-1-8-million-in-coinbase-coin-stock/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/co-founder-fred-ehrsam-just-bought-1-8-million-in-coinbase-coin-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190992024","content_text":"Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) co-founder Fred Ehrsam purchased 30,030 shares of COIN stock on May 24The shares were purchased at an average price of $60.60Ehrsam purchased the shares through ParadigmShares of Coinbase stock are in the spotlight today following another insider purchase from co-founder Fred Ehrsam. This is Ehrsam’sthird insider purchase of the crypto exchange this month. In fact, no Coinbase insider has purchased shares of COIN stock this year on the open market besides Ehrsam.Ehrsam helped found Coinbase alongside current CEO Brian Armstrong. Eventually, he also moved away from the company and helped found Paradigm, an investment firm that focuses on cryptocurrency and Web 3.0 opportunities.Let’s get into the details of Ehrsam’s purchase.Co-founder and Director Fred Ehrsam Buys COIN StockOn May 24, Fred Ehrsam purchased 30,030 shares at an average price of $60.60 per share. In total, the purchase amounted to just over $1.8 million. Ehrsam indirectly purchased all of these shares through the Paradigm One Fund. After the purchase, Ehrsam indirectly owns 1.12 million shares through the fund. He also owns another 1.13 million shares through the Frederick Ernest Ehrsam III Living Trust and 1,213 shares directly. Finally, Ehrsam owns an additional 2.58 million shares through the Paradigm Fund.Earlier, on May 17, Ehrsam purchased385,260 shares through the Paradigm One Fund at average prices ranging between $63.92 and $66.52. The purchase amounted to a massive $25 million. However, Ehrsam made an even bigger purchase on May 13, purchasing706,554 shares at average prices ranging between $69.53 and $72.85. That purchase amounted to a whopping $50 million.Ehrsam seems to be buying back shares at a discount after selling out shares following the company’s initial public offering (IPO). One article from The Wall Street Journal details how four Coinbase insiders sold $1.2 billion of COIN following the company’s IPO. These four insiders are co-founders Fred Ehrsam and Brian Armstrong as well as COO Emilie Choi and CPO Surojit Chatterjee. At its initial public offering, COIN stock initiated trading at $381. The four insiders sold shares at prices between $189 and $422. Today, the stock is trading in the low $70 range.Armstrong sold shares worth $292 million through both himself and his trust. On top of that, Ehrsam sold nearly $500 million of COIN. Meanwhile, Choi “exercised options at a cost of $9.7 million […] while Chatterjee exercised options at a cost of $6 million.” Choi and Chatterjee also sold shares worth $226 million and $110 million, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026758806,"gmtCreate":1653437428405,"gmtModify":1676535281445,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026758806","repostId":"1154327965","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095438497,"gmtCreate":1644971298275,"gmtModify":1676533981259,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😎","listText":"😎","text":"😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095438497","repostId":"1149078738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149078738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644971046,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149078738?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-16 08:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With $5.519 billion in net income, Tesla is becoming a money-making machine","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149078738","media":"砺石商业评论","summary":"砺石导言：新车销售毛利率的持续提升以及营业利润的大幅改善，让市场对特斯拉造血能力不足的质疑彻底消失。业绩新高，电动车可以更赚钱前不久，特斯拉公布了2021年第四季度以及2021年全年财报。财报显示，第","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction to the stone:</b>The continuous improvement in gross profit margin of new vehicle sales and the substantial improvement in operating profit have made the market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The question of insufficient hematopoietic capacity disappeared completely.<b>New high performance, electric cars can be more profitable</b></p><p>Not long ago, Tesla announced its fourth quarter 2021 and full year 2021 financial results. According to the financial report, in the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 308,700 new cars, up 70.8% year-on-year and 27.9% month-on-month, setting another record high. For all of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles worldwide, up 87% year-on-year.</p><p>The Chinese market is key to Tesla's continued surge in new car sales. By region, in 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 235%, accounting for more than half of Tesla's total global deliveries, which is already close to Tesla's global deliveries in 2020 (499,600 vehicles).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a723eb5132209f79910b6281d965f676\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Benefiting from the substantial increase in new vehicle deliveries, Tesla's total revenue reached US$17.72 billion in the fourth quarter, up 65% year-on-year, and its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US$2.321 billion, up 760% year-on-year and 43% quarter-on-quarter, setting the highest quarterly operating margin for an OEM.</p><p>From the full-year data of 2021, Tesla's total operating income reached US$53.823 billion, compared with US$31.536 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 71%; Net income was $5.519 billion, compared to $721 million in 2020, up 665% year-over-year.</p><p>In addition, due to local procurement and manufacturing in China, the production cost of a single piece of new vehicles in Tesla's Shanghai factory was significantly reduced, which led to the further improvement of gross profit margin of Tesla's vehicle sales. According to the financial report data, Tesla's gross profit margin was 27.4% in the fourth quarter, of which the gross profit margin of a single bicycle reached 30.6%, continuing to increase by 0.1 percentage points compared with the third quarter.</p><p>Compared with its peers, Tesla's gross profit margin of 30% of its vehicle business stands out from the crowd. The data shows that the gross profit margin of global mainstream car companies such as Toyota and Volkswagen is usually less than 20%, while the gross profit margin of some car companies is only maintained at about 10%. In addition, considering the pressure of raw material costs and the tense supply chain faced by the entire automobile industry, the continuous improvement of Tesla's gross profit margin is even more extraordinary.</p><p>In this regard, Tesla said in its financial report that in the fourth quarter, the company achieved an operating profit of $2.6 billion, with an operating profit margin of 14.7%, the highest among mass-produced car companies, \"which means that there is no longer any doubt about the feasibility and profitability of electric vehicles, proving that electric vehicles are more profitable than gasoline vehicles\".</p><p>In terms of business, Tesla's vehicle sales business achieved revenue of US$44.125 billion in 2021, representing a year-on-year increase of 79%, accounting for 81.98% of revenue; The revenue from selling points was US$1.465 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7%, accounting for 2.72% of the revenue; Car rental achieved revenue of US$1.642 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%, accounting for 3.05% of revenue; Revenue from services and other businesses amounted to US$3,802 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 65%, accounting for 7.06% of revenue; In addition, the company's energy business achieved revenue of US$2.789 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, accounting for 5.18% of revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cd413ead9b72bf2f0fd9ba5d72ba34c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that Tesla's vehicle business is still at a loss in 2020. According to the data, in 2020, Tesla's points sales revenue was USD 1.6 billion, and its net profit was USD 721 million. The two phases were deducted, indicating that Tesla's bicycle business was still at a loss, which also made Tesla once questioned by its insufficient hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The announcement of the 2021 financial report finally made Tesla completely take off the hat of \"selling carbon\". Musk's first principles are also strongly supported by Tesla's financial report data.</p><p><b>Musk believes that the first principles way of thinking is a way of seeing the world, peeling off the appearance of things layer by layer until you see the essence of things, and then starting from the essence to find the fundamental solution.</b>The reason why Tesla bet on the pure electric route in the early days is that it saw the potential of battery performance improvement and the comparative advantage of modular production of electric vehicles, and drew the important conclusion that \"electric vehicles will have higher performance and lower price than fuel vehicles\".</p><p>In addition to the cost advantage brought by the localized procurement of Shanghai Gigafactory, the scale effect is another key factor in Tesla's profitability jump. Due to the obvious economies of scale characteristics of the automotive industry, the steady increase of Tesla's gross profit margin is closely related to the continuous expansion of its production capacity. Tesla achieved a production efficiency of more than 1.22 million vehicles per year in the fourth quarter, setting a new record, according to the data.</p><p>However, Tesla also admitted at the earnings report conference that the company will still face challenges from global supply chain, logistics and transportation, labor and other aspects in 2022. Therefore, expanding production capacity and boosting sales will be Tesla's main tasks this year. To that end, Tesla will continue the selection of a new Gigafactory site on the basis of improving the efficiency of the original four factory capacity, and will not launch any new models in 2022.</p><p><b>Capacity comes first, no new models will be released</b></p><p>As of now, Tesla has four EV production plants in California, Shanghai, China, Berlin, Germany and Texas, USA. Among them, the Fremont plant in California plans to produce 500,000 Model 3/Y models and 100,000 Model S/X models, mainly for the North American market. Tesla said in its fourth-quarter earnings report that the Fremont plant achieved record production in 2021 and believes the capacity of the Fremont plant has the potential to exceed 600,000 vehicles per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eea238b86dc4c9acf97b4c91afd77852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Shanghai Gigafactory mainly produces two main sales models, Model 3 and Model Y, and is also Tesla's main export center. In 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, of which more than 160,000 were exported to more than 10 countries in the Eurasian region.</p><p>Up to now, Tesla has built Shanghai Gigafactory, Shanghai Super Charging Pile Factory, Shanghai R&D Innovation Center and Data Center in Shanghai. At the same time, the localization rate of components in Shanghai Gigafactory has exceeded 90%, and the Model 3 and Model Y models can share 75% of the components.</p><p>According to the information disclosed in the fourth quarter financial report, Tesla's Berlin factory in Germany and Texas factory in the United States have entered the equipment test state from the state under construction. According to the plan, the Austin factory in Texas will be the first to produce the Model Y, followed by the Cybertruck, Tesla Semi and other models; The Berlin Gigafactory, which is designed to have a capacity of 500,000 vehicles, has already begun preparations for mass production of the Model Y, and Tesla's European website has also updated the expected delivery time in sync, which is March 2022.</p><p>The market generally expects that Tesla's production capacity is expected to exceed 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. With the commissioning of the Berlin factory in Germany and the Texas factory in the United States, Tesla's production capacity will exceed 3 million vehicles, which will effectively ensure the achievement of Tesla's annual sales growth rate of 50%. By then, Tesla will likely achieve tens of billions of dollars in net profit and become a real money-making machine. In addition, Musk also said on the conference call that Tesla is looking for a new factory location.</p><p>Judging from the existing production capacity planning, Tesla has focused on the SEXY family, while the progress of the three projects of electric pickup truck (Cybertruck), electric truck (Semi) and super sports car (Roadster) is still miss the market expectation.</p><p>According to the data, Tesla held the first Cybertruck conference as early as November 2019, and at that time, people were shocked by its subversive appearance. Cybertruck was thus called the \"most science fiction\" electric pickup truck in history. On the day after the launch, the Cybertruck received 146,000 orders.</p><p>However, the Cybertruck, which started well, suffered a production crisis, and Tesla repeatedly delayed its production and delivery plans. As of now, the Tesla Cybertruck has received more than 1.2 million orders, but there is still no firm delivery date.</p><p>Mass production of the Cybertruck had to be delayed due to supply chain issues, especially chip shortages, Musk said at the earnings conference. In addition, a large number of cutting-edge technologies applied to Cybertruck are also a major reason for limiting its production capacity at present.</p><p>Another new arrival that has repeatedly jumped tickets is the electric truck Semi. The electric truck, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2019, did not achieve its first 15 new vehicle deliveries until January this year.</p><p>For the specific production timing of the Cybertruck, Semi, and the sports car Roadster, Musk only said \"hopefully next year (2023) can.\"</p><p>\"If we do introduce an additional product, it requires a lot of attention and resource commitment to the complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. This year, too. Therefore, we're not launching new models this year\", Musk said.</p><p>Iron Man's statement may make many people feel regretful, but from the perspective of the main contradiction, Tesla's main contradiction at present is obviously the pressure of new car delivery caused by insufficient production capacity, and the launch of new models is not conducive to the solution of this contradiction. Expanding production capacity is Tesla's top priority.</p><p>This means that the previously rumored $25,000 Tesla cheap Model \"Model 2\" will not appear.</p><p><b>Can fully autonomous driving land after repeated ticket skipping?</b></p><p>In fact, compared with the introduction of new models, Musk pays more attention to the implementation of autonomous driving technology.</p><p>When asked by investors about the production plan for the $25,000 model, Musk not only said that there is no current development plan related to the $25,000 model, but even thought that \"the question itself is wrong.\" At the same time, Musk believes that compared with deliberately developing a $25,000 car, FSD fully autonomous driving software is what really matters to Tesla. \"When the car realizes autonomous driving, this will reduce transportation costs by 4-5 times\".</p><p>What should be seen is that as traditional fuel vehicle companies accelerate their transformation to electrification, Tesla's first-mover advantage in the electric field is being weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Autonomous driving technology is undoubtedly a key factor in its continued leadership among its peers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bde58ec7e464cc95aacda14938e9ffa\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Full Self-Driving (FSD) is an advanced driver assistance package on Tesla vehicles that includes autonomous Driving and other more sophisticated features such as automatic lane change, stop light recognition, and \"smart summoning\".</p><p>One concept corresponding to the FSD is the Tesla \"Autopilot,\" which is also the standard suite of driver assistance on new Tesla vehicles, with features such as autonomous emergency braking, forward collision warning, lane keeping, and adaptive cruise control.</p><p>In contrast, although the standard \"Autopilot\" is called \"automatic assistance system\", the key point is \"assistance\", while the key point of FSD lies in \"fully autonomous driving\". According to the classification standard of autonomous driving, Autopilot is equivalent to L2 level, and FSD is equivalent to L4 level.</p><p>According to the latest charging standard, from January 17th this year, the price of FSD for fully autonomous driving system for customers in the United States will be raised from $10,000 to $12,000. Plus, Tesla owners can also subscribe to the FSD feature on a monthly basis for $199/month.</p><p>However, although Musk himself has repeatedly said that FSD will solve the problem of autonomous driving L4, I'm afraid FSD is still a certain distance away from \"fully autonomous driving\".</p><p>According to the data, as early as the end of 2018, Musk announced that its \"fully autonomous driving technology\" would be realized in 2019.</p><p>Since then, Musk said at Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting in June 2019 that Tesla users can use the autonomous driving function without human intervention sometime in 2020. However, all models produced after October 2016 only need to replace the autonomous driving chip to realize the full autonomous driving function.</p><p>In 2020, Tesla launched the FSD Beta version with full autonomous driving testing capabilities for urban roads. According to the regulations, only drivers who have purchased or subscribed to an FSD and have scored high on Tesla's safety tests can currently qualify for the trial.</p><p>However, the much-anticipated \"fully autonomous driving\" has yet to materialize. On the contrary, Tesla has encountered many criticisms because of frequent self-driving safety accidents. In August 2021, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) formally launched an investigation into Tesla's Autopilot system.</p><p>Despite repeated ticket jumps and a deep crisis of confidence in safety, Tesla's self-driving technology remains undiminished in its appeal to consumers. According to the data, there are now nearly 60,000 vehicles equipped with FSD test version in the United States, compared with only a few thousand in the third quarter of last year.</p><p>With the sales and subscription of FSD kit, Tesla took the lead in \"software charging\". For the full year of 2021, Tesla's services and other businesses, including autonomous driving software, achieved operating income of $3.802 billion, an increase of 65%. This has also attracted domestic XPeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>And other new car companies have started to try software revenue.</p><p>\"Over time, FSD will become the most important part of Tesla's revenue stream. My personal prediction is to achieve FSD this year, and it will be significantly safer than people driving. Tesla's cars can achieve FSD through software upgrades, which will break the car's attributes as a consumer product and have the possibility of continued appreciation. In addition, the realization of FSD will also have a huge impact on improving security and accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. \"</p><p>As mentioned above, Musk once again made optimistic expectations for the technical landing of FSD. In the future, with the continuous improvement of FSD option rate and price, software revenue will become an important source of revenue for Tesla, which also means major changes in its business model and further improvement of profitability.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since FSD achieves full self-development, Tesla will receive 100% of its sales revenue without having to like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It is also shared with software developers, which brings more imagination to Tesla's software charges.</p><p>Just, will Tesla's FSD still jump this year?</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571105524917","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With $5.519 billion in net income, Tesla is becoming a money-making machine</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith $5.519 billion in net income, Tesla is becoming a money-making machine\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">砺石商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-16 08:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction to the stone:</b>The continuous improvement in gross profit margin of new vehicle sales and the substantial improvement in operating profit have made the market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The question of insufficient hematopoietic capacity disappeared completely.<b>New high performance, electric cars can be more profitable</b></p><p>Not long ago, Tesla announced its fourth quarter 2021 and full year 2021 financial results. According to the financial report, in the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 308,700 new cars, up 70.8% year-on-year and 27.9% month-on-month, setting another record high. For all of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles worldwide, up 87% year-on-year.</p><p>The Chinese market is key to Tesla's continued surge in new car sales. By region, in 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 235%, accounting for more than half of Tesla's total global deliveries, which is already close to Tesla's global deliveries in 2020 (499,600 vehicles).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a723eb5132209f79910b6281d965f676\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Benefiting from the substantial increase in new vehicle deliveries, Tesla's total revenue reached US$17.72 billion in the fourth quarter, up 65% year-on-year, and its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US$2.321 billion, up 760% year-on-year and 43% quarter-on-quarter, setting the highest quarterly operating margin for an OEM.</p><p>From the full-year data of 2021, Tesla's total operating income reached US$53.823 billion, compared with US$31.536 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 71%; Net income was $5.519 billion, compared to $721 million in 2020, up 665% year-over-year.</p><p>In addition, due to local procurement and manufacturing in China, the production cost of a single piece of new vehicles in Tesla's Shanghai factory was significantly reduced, which led to the further improvement of gross profit margin of Tesla's vehicle sales. According to the financial report data, Tesla's gross profit margin was 27.4% in the fourth quarter, of which the gross profit margin of a single bicycle reached 30.6%, continuing to increase by 0.1 percentage points compared with the third quarter.</p><p>Compared with its peers, Tesla's gross profit margin of 30% of its vehicle business stands out from the crowd. The data shows that the gross profit margin of global mainstream car companies such as Toyota and Volkswagen is usually less than 20%, while the gross profit margin of some car companies is only maintained at about 10%. In addition, considering the pressure of raw material costs and the tense supply chain faced by the entire automobile industry, the continuous improvement of Tesla's gross profit margin is even more extraordinary.</p><p>In this regard, Tesla said in its financial report that in the fourth quarter, the company achieved an operating profit of $2.6 billion, with an operating profit margin of 14.7%, the highest among mass-produced car companies, \"which means that there is no longer any doubt about the feasibility and profitability of electric vehicles, proving that electric vehicles are more profitable than gasoline vehicles\".</p><p>In terms of business, Tesla's vehicle sales business achieved revenue of US$44.125 billion in 2021, representing a year-on-year increase of 79%, accounting for 81.98% of revenue; The revenue from selling points was US$1.465 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7%, accounting for 2.72% of the revenue; Car rental achieved revenue of US$1.642 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%, accounting for 3.05% of revenue; Revenue from services and other businesses amounted to US$3,802 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 65%, accounting for 7.06% of revenue; In addition, the company's energy business achieved revenue of US$2.789 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, accounting for 5.18% of revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cd413ead9b72bf2f0fd9ba5d72ba34c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that Tesla's vehicle business is still at a loss in 2020. According to the data, in 2020, Tesla's points sales revenue was USD 1.6 billion, and its net profit was USD 721 million. The two phases were deducted, indicating that Tesla's bicycle business was still at a loss, which also made Tesla once questioned by its insufficient hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The announcement of the 2021 financial report finally made Tesla completely take off the hat of \"selling carbon\". Musk's first principles are also strongly supported by Tesla's financial report data.</p><p><b>Musk believes that the first principles way of thinking is a way of seeing the world, peeling off the appearance of things layer by layer until you see the essence of things, and then starting from the essence to find the fundamental solution.</b>The reason why Tesla bet on the pure electric route in the early days is that it saw the potential of battery performance improvement and the comparative advantage of modular production of electric vehicles, and drew the important conclusion that \"electric vehicles will have higher performance and lower price than fuel vehicles\".</p><p>In addition to the cost advantage brought by the localized procurement of Shanghai Gigafactory, the scale effect is another key factor in Tesla's profitability jump. Due to the obvious economies of scale characteristics of the automotive industry, the steady increase of Tesla's gross profit margin is closely related to the continuous expansion of its production capacity. Tesla achieved a production efficiency of more than 1.22 million vehicles per year in the fourth quarter, setting a new record, according to the data.</p><p>However, Tesla also admitted at the earnings report conference that the company will still face challenges from global supply chain, logistics and transportation, labor and other aspects in 2022. Therefore, expanding production capacity and boosting sales will be Tesla's main tasks this year. To that end, Tesla will continue the selection of a new Gigafactory site on the basis of improving the efficiency of the original four factory capacity, and will not launch any new models in 2022.</p><p><b>Capacity comes first, no new models will be released</b></p><p>As of now, Tesla has four EV production plants in California, Shanghai, China, Berlin, Germany and Texas, USA. Among them, the Fremont plant in California plans to produce 500,000 Model 3/Y models and 100,000 Model S/X models, mainly for the North American market. Tesla said in its fourth-quarter earnings report that the Fremont plant achieved record production in 2021 and believes the capacity of the Fremont plant has the potential to exceed 600,000 vehicles per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eea238b86dc4c9acf97b4c91afd77852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Shanghai Gigafactory mainly produces two main sales models, Model 3 and Model Y, and is also Tesla's main export center. In 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, of which more than 160,000 were exported to more than 10 countries in the Eurasian region.</p><p>Up to now, Tesla has built Shanghai Gigafactory, Shanghai Super Charging Pile Factory, Shanghai R&D Innovation Center and Data Center in Shanghai. At the same time, the localization rate of components in Shanghai Gigafactory has exceeded 90%, and the Model 3 and Model Y models can share 75% of the components.</p><p>According to the information disclosed in the fourth quarter financial report, Tesla's Berlin factory in Germany and Texas factory in the United States have entered the equipment test state from the state under construction. According to the plan, the Austin factory in Texas will be the first to produce the Model Y, followed by the Cybertruck, Tesla Semi and other models; The Berlin Gigafactory, which is designed to have a capacity of 500,000 vehicles, has already begun preparations for mass production of the Model Y, and Tesla's European website has also updated the expected delivery time in sync, which is March 2022.</p><p>The market generally expects that Tesla's production capacity is expected to exceed 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. With the commissioning of the Berlin factory in Germany and the Texas factory in the United States, Tesla's production capacity will exceed 3 million vehicles, which will effectively ensure the achievement of Tesla's annual sales growth rate of 50%. By then, Tesla will likely achieve tens of billions of dollars in net profit and become a real money-making machine. In addition, Musk also said on the conference call that Tesla is looking for a new factory location.</p><p>Judging from the existing production capacity planning, Tesla has focused on the SEXY family, while the progress of the three projects of electric pickup truck (Cybertruck), electric truck (Semi) and super sports car (Roadster) is still miss the market expectation.</p><p>According to the data, Tesla held the first Cybertruck conference as early as November 2019, and at that time, people were shocked by its subversive appearance. Cybertruck was thus called the \"most science fiction\" electric pickup truck in history. On the day after the launch, the Cybertruck received 146,000 orders.</p><p>However, the Cybertruck, which started well, suffered a production crisis, and Tesla repeatedly delayed its production and delivery plans. As of now, the Tesla Cybertruck has received more than 1.2 million orders, but there is still no firm delivery date.</p><p>Mass production of the Cybertruck had to be delayed due to supply chain issues, especially chip shortages, Musk said at the earnings conference. In addition, a large number of cutting-edge technologies applied to Cybertruck are also a major reason for limiting its production capacity at present.</p><p>Another new arrival that has repeatedly jumped tickets is the electric truck Semi. The electric truck, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2019, did not achieve its first 15 new vehicle deliveries until January this year.</p><p>For the specific production timing of the Cybertruck, Semi, and the sports car Roadster, Musk only said \"hopefully next year (2023) can.\"</p><p>\"If we do introduce an additional product, it requires a lot of attention and resource commitment to the complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. This year, too. Therefore, we're not launching new models this year\", Musk said.</p><p>Iron Man's statement may make many people feel regretful, but from the perspective of the main contradiction, Tesla's main contradiction at present is obviously the pressure of new car delivery caused by insufficient production capacity, and the launch of new models is not conducive to the solution of this contradiction. Expanding production capacity is Tesla's top priority.</p><p>This means that the previously rumored $25,000 Tesla cheap Model \"Model 2\" will not appear.</p><p><b>Can fully autonomous driving land after repeated ticket skipping?</b></p><p>In fact, compared with the introduction of new models, Musk pays more attention to the implementation of autonomous driving technology.</p><p>When asked by investors about the production plan for the $25,000 model, Musk not only said that there is no current development plan related to the $25,000 model, but even thought that \"the question itself is wrong.\" At the same time, Musk believes that compared with deliberately developing a $25,000 car, FSD fully autonomous driving software is what really matters to Tesla. \"When the car realizes autonomous driving, this will reduce transportation costs by 4-5 times\".</p><p>What should be seen is that as traditional fuel vehicle companies accelerate their transformation to electrification, Tesla's first-mover advantage in the electric field is being weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Autonomous driving technology is undoubtedly a key factor in its continued leadership among its peers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bde58ec7e464cc95aacda14938e9ffa\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Full Self-Driving (FSD) is an advanced driver assistance package on Tesla vehicles that includes autonomous Driving and other more sophisticated features such as automatic lane change, stop light recognition, and \"smart summoning\".</p><p>One concept corresponding to the FSD is the Tesla \"Autopilot,\" which is also the standard suite of driver assistance on new Tesla vehicles, with features such as autonomous emergency braking, forward collision warning, lane keeping, and adaptive cruise control.</p><p>In contrast, although the standard \"Autopilot\" is called \"automatic assistance system\", the key point is \"assistance\", while the key point of FSD lies in \"fully autonomous driving\". According to the classification standard of autonomous driving, Autopilot is equivalent to L2 level, and FSD is equivalent to L4 level.</p><p>According to the latest charging standard, from January 17th this year, the price of FSD for fully autonomous driving system for customers in the United States will be raised from $10,000 to $12,000. Plus, Tesla owners can also subscribe to the FSD feature on a monthly basis for $199/month.</p><p>However, although Musk himself has repeatedly said that FSD will solve the problem of autonomous driving L4, I'm afraid FSD is still a certain distance away from \"fully autonomous driving\".</p><p>According to the data, as early as the end of 2018, Musk announced that its \"fully autonomous driving technology\" would be realized in 2019.</p><p>Since then, Musk said at Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting in June 2019 that Tesla users can use the autonomous driving function without human intervention sometime in 2020. However, all models produced after October 2016 only need to replace the autonomous driving chip to realize the full autonomous driving function.</p><p>In 2020, Tesla launched the FSD Beta version with full autonomous driving testing capabilities for urban roads. According to the regulations, only drivers who have purchased or subscribed to an FSD and have scored high on Tesla's safety tests can currently qualify for the trial.</p><p>However, the much-anticipated \"fully autonomous driving\" has yet to materialize. On the contrary, Tesla has encountered many criticisms because of frequent self-driving safety accidents. In August 2021, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) formally launched an investigation into Tesla's Autopilot system.</p><p>Despite repeated ticket jumps and a deep crisis of confidence in safety, Tesla's self-driving technology remains undiminished in its appeal to consumers. According to the data, there are now nearly 60,000 vehicles equipped with FSD test version in the United States, compared with only a few thousand in the third quarter of last year.</p><p>With the sales and subscription of FSD kit, Tesla took the lead in \"software charging\". For the full year of 2021, Tesla's services and other businesses, including autonomous driving software, achieved operating income of $3.802 billion, an increase of 65%. This has also attracted domestic XPeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>And other new car companies have started to try software revenue.</p><p>\"Over time, FSD will become the most important part of Tesla's revenue stream. My personal prediction is to achieve FSD this year, and it will be significantly safer than people driving. Tesla's cars can achieve FSD through software upgrades, which will break the car's attributes as a consumer product and have the possibility of continued appreciation. In addition, the realization of FSD will also have a huge impact on improving security and accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. \"</p><p>As mentioned above, Musk once again made optimistic expectations for the technical landing of FSD. In the future, with the continuous improvement of FSD option rate and price, software revenue will become an important source of revenue for Tesla, which also means major changes in its business model and further improvement of profitability.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since FSD achieves full self-development, Tesla will receive 100% of its sales revenue without having to like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It is also shared with software developers, which brings more imagination to Tesla's software charges.</p><p>Just, will Tesla's FSD still jump this year?</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SCEkJCJ7_1JWA29FvHmPSQ\">砺石商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SCEkJCJ7_1JWA29FvHmPSQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149078738","content_text":"砺石导言：新车销售毛利率的持续提升以及营业利润的大幅改善，让市场对特斯拉造血能力不足的质疑彻底消失。业绩新高，电动车可以更赚钱前不久，特斯拉公布了2021年第四季度以及2021年全年财报。财报显示，第四季度，特斯拉新车交付量为30.87万辆，同比增长70.8%，环比增长27.9%，再创历史新高。2021年全年，特斯拉在全球交付936200辆车，同比增长87%。中国市场成为特斯拉新车销量持续飙升的关键。按地区统计，2021年全年，上海超级工厂共交付48.41万辆，同比增长235%，占特斯拉全球总交付量的一半以上，这一数字已经接近2020年特斯拉全球交付量（49.96万辆）。受益于新车交付量的大幅增长，四季度特斯拉总营收达到177.2亿美元，同比增长65%，实现归属于普通股东的净利润为23.21亿美元，同比增长760%，环比增长43%，创下整车厂最高的季度营业利润率。从2021年全年数据看，特斯拉营业总收入达到538.23亿美元，2020年为315.36亿美元，同比增长71%；净利润55.19亿美元，2020年为7.21亿美元，同比增长665%。另外，由于在中国本土进行采购和制造，特斯拉上海工厂新车的单件生产成本得以显著下降，这带动了特斯拉整车销售毛利率的进一步提升。财报数据显示，第四季度特斯拉毛利率为27.4%，其中单车毛利率达到30.6%，较第三季度继续提升0.1个百分点。对比同行看，特斯拉整车业务高达30%的毛利率水平可谓鹤立鸡群。数据显示，丰田、大众等全球主流车企的毛利率通常低于20%，部分车企毛利率仅维持在10%左右。此外，考虑到整个汽车行业所面临的原材料成本压力及供应链紧张态势，特斯拉毛利率的持续提升更显不凡。对此，特斯拉在财报中表示，四季度公司实现26亿美元运营利润，营业利润率达14.7%，为量产车企中最高，“意味着电动汽车的可行性和盈利能力不再有任何疑问，证明了电动汽车比汽油车盈利能力更强”。分业务来看，2021年特斯拉汽车销售业务实现营收441.25亿美元，同比增长79%，收入占比为81.98%；卖积分收入为14.65亿美元，同比减少7%，收入占比为2.72%；汽车租赁实现营收16.42亿美元，同比增长56%，收入占比为3.05%；服务及其他业务收入为38.02亿美元，同比增长65%，收入占比为7.06%；此外，公司能源业务实现营收27.89亿美元，同比增长40%，收入占比为5.18%。值得一提的是，2020年度特斯拉整车业务仍处于亏损状态。数据显示，2020年特斯拉积分销售收入为16亿美元，净利润为7.21亿美元，两相扣除，说明特斯拉单车业务仍处于亏损状态，这也让特斯拉一度遭到造血能力不足的质疑。2021年财报的公布，总算让特斯拉彻底摘掉了“卖碳翁”的帽子。马斯克的第一性原理，也得到了特斯拉财报数据的有力支持。马斯克认为，第一性原理的思维方式是一种看待世界的方式，一层一层剥开事情的表象，直到看到事物的本质，然后从本质出发去寻找根本解。特斯拉早期之所以押注纯电路线，就是看到了电池性能改进潜力和电动汽车模块化生产的相对优势，得出“电动汽车将比燃油车具有更高的性能和更低的价格”这一重要结论。除了上海超级工厂本土化采购所带来的成本优势外，规模效应也是特斯拉盈利能力跃升的又一关键因素。由于汽车行业存在明显的规模经济特征，特斯拉毛利润率的节节攀升与其产能的持续扩充密切相关。数据显示，特斯拉在第四季度实现了超过122万辆年产能的生产效率，创下新的纪录。不过，特斯拉也在财报会议上坦陈，2022年公司仍将面临来自全球供应链、物流运输、劳动力等多方面的挑战。因此，扩大产能和提升销量将是特斯拉今年的主要任务。为此，特斯拉将在提高原有四个工厂产能效率的基础上，继续进行新的超级工厂选址，并且2022年不会推出任何新车型。产能至上，不会发布任何新车型截至目前，特斯拉分别在美国加州、中国上海、德国柏林以及美国德州拥有四座电动车生产工厂。其中，位于加州的弗里蒙特工厂计划产量包括50万台Model 3/Y车型和10万台Model S/X车型，主要面向北美市场。特斯拉在四季度财报中表示，弗里蒙特工厂在2021年实现了创纪录的产量，相信弗里蒙特工厂的产能有潜力超过每年60万辆。上海超级工厂主要生产Model 3和Model Y两款主销车型，也是特斯拉主要的出口中心。2021年全年，上海超级工厂共交付车辆48.41万辆，其中超过16万辆出口到欧亚地区10多个国家。截至目前，特斯拉已在上海建成上海超级工厂、上海超级充电桩工厂、上海研发创新中心和数据中心。同时，上海超级工厂零部件本地化率也已经超过90%，Model 3和Model Y两款车型可共享75%的零部件。根据四季度财报所披露的信息，特斯拉德国柏林工厂和美国德州工厂已经由建设中状态进入设备测试状态。根据规划，德州奥斯汀工厂将率先生产Model Y，之后再生产Cybertruck、Tesla Semi等车型；柏林超级工厂设计产能为50万辆，目前已经开始筹备Model Y的大规模生产，特斯拉的欧洲网站也同步更新了交付预期时间，时间为2022年3月。市场普遍预计，2022年特斯拉产能有望突破150万辆，随着德国柏林工厂和美国德州工厂的投产，特斯拉产能将会突破300万辆，这将有效保障特斯拉年销量增速50%这一目标的达成。届时，特斯拉将很有可能实现数百亿美元的净利润，成为真正的赚钱机器。此外，马斯克还在电话会议上表示，特斯拉正在寻找新的工厂位置。从现有产能规划上看，特斯拉把主要精力放在了SEXY家族之上，而电动皮卡（Cybertruck）、电动卡车（Semi）、超级跑车（Roadster）三个项目进展依旧不及市场预期。资料显示，特斯拉早在2019年11月就召开了第一次Cybertruck的发布会，而当时人们就被它颠覆性的外观所震撼，Cybertruck由此被称为史上“最科幻”的电动皮卡。在发布会次日，Cybertruck就获得了14.6万份订单。然而，开局良好的Cybertruck却遭遇到量产危机，特斯拉一再推迟其生产及交付计划。截至目前，特斯拉Cybertruck已经拿到了超过120万辆订单，但仍未有确定交付日期。马斯克在财报会议上表示，由于供应链问题，尤其是芯片短缺，Cybertruck的量产不得不推迟。另外，应用于Cybertruck上面的大量前沿技术，也是目前限制其产能的一个主要原因。另一款一再跳票的新品是电动卡车Semi。这款原定于2019年投产的电动卡车直到今年1月才实现了首批15辆的新车交付。对于Cybertruck、Semi以及跑车Roadster的具体量产时间，马斯克只说了“希望明年（2023年）可以”。“如果我们真的引入了一个额外的产品，那么就需要对额外产品的复杂性进行大量的关注和资源投入，从而导致实际交付的车辆数量减少。今年也是如此。因此，我们今年不会推出新车型”，马斯克表示。钢铁侠的这一表态或许让不少人感到遗憾，但从主要矛盾角度来看，特斯拉目前的主要矛盾显然是产能不足所带来的新车交付压力，而新车型的推出并无益于这一矛盾的解决，扩大产能才是特斯拉的首要任务。这就意味着，此前传言中的2.5万美元的特斯拉廉价车型“Model 2”将不会出现。屡次跳票，完全自动驾驶能否落地？实际上，相比新车型的推出，马斯克更加看重自动驾驶技术的落地。在被投资者问及2.5万美元车型生产计划时，马斯克不仅表示目前没有2.5万美元车型相关开发计划，甚至认为“这个问题本身是错误的”。与此同时，马斯克认为，相比特意开发一款2.5万美元的汽车，FSD全自动驾驶软件才是对特斯拉来说真正重要的事，“汽车何时实现自动驾驶，这会使运输成本下降4-5倍”。需要看到的是，随着传统燃油车企加速向电动化转型，特斯拉在电动领域的先发优势正在被削弱，智能化正成为其持续领先同行的关键因素，自动驾驶技术无疑又是其中的重中之重。Full Self-Driving（FSD，完全自动驾驶系统）是特斯拉汽车上的一个高级驾驶员辅助套件，其中包括了自动驾驶和其他一些更复杂的功能，如自动换道，停车灯识别，以及“智能召唤”。与FSD对应的一个概念是特斯拉“Autopilot”，这也是特斯拉新车的驾驶员自动辅助标准套件，其功能包括自动紧急制动、前方碰撞警告、车道保持和自适应巡航控制。对比来说，标配的“Autopilot”虽然叫作“自动辅助系统”，但关键点还是“辅助”，而FSD的关键点在于“完全自动驾驶”。 按照自动驾驶的分级标准，Autopilot相当于L2级别，FSD则相当于L4级别。按照最新收费标准，从今年1月17日起，美国地区客户的完全自动驾驶系统FSD价格将由1万美元上调至1.2万美元。另外，特斯拉车主还可以按月订阅FSD功能，价格为199美元/月。不过，尽管马斯克本人一再表示FSD将解决自动驾驶L4的问题，但FSD距离“完全自动驾驶”恐怕仍还有一定距离。资料显示，早在2018年底，马斯克就宣称其“全自动驾驶技术”将在2019年实现。此后，马斯克又于2019年6月在特斯拉的年度股东大会上表示，特斯拉用户可以在2020年的某个时候，可以使用上无需人工干预的自动驾驶功能。而所有2016年10月以后生产的车型，只需要更换自动驾驶芯片既可以实现全自动驾驶功能。2020年，特斯拉推出FSD Beta版本，配备城市道路完全自动驾驶测试功能。根据规定，目前只有购买或订阅了FSD，并在特斯拉的安全测试中获得高分的驾驶员，才可以获得试用资格。然而，备受期待的“完全自动驾驶”至今仍没有实现。相反，特斯拉却因为频发的自动驾驶安全事故而遭遇到诸多非议。2021年8月，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正式对特斯拉自动驾驶系统展开调查。尽管屡次跳票并深陷安全信任危机，特斯拉自动驾驶技术对消费者的吸引力依然不减。数据显示，如今美国搭载FSD测试版的车辆近6万辆，而去年三季度这一数据仅几千辆。凭借FSD套件的销售及订阅，特斯拉率先走在了“软件收费”的前列。2021年全年，特斯拉包括自动驾驶软件在内服务及其他业务实现营业收入为38.02亿美元，增加65%。这也吸引了国内小鹏、蔚来等新势力车企纷纷开启了对软件收入的尝试。“随着时间推移，FSD将会成为特斯拉收入来源的最重要部分。我的个人预测是今年实现FSD，它的安全程度将大幅度高于人们驾驶。特斯拉的车通过软件升级即可实现FSD，这将打破汽车作为消费品的属性而具有持续升值的可能性。另外，FSD的实现还将会在提升安全、加速世界向可持续能源转变方面有巨大影响。”如上所述，马斯克再一次对FSD的技术落地做出了乐观预期。未来，随着FSD选装率和价格的不断提升，软件收入将成为特斯拉重要的收入来源，这也意味着其商业模式的重大改变以及盈利能力的进一步提升。值得一提的是，由于FSD实现了完全自主开发，特斯拉将获得其100%的销售收入，而不必像苹果一样与软件开发者分成，这就给特斯拉软件收费带来了更大的想象空间。只是，今年特斯拉的FSD还会跳票吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890451164,"gmtCreate":1628129594258,"gmtModify":1703501772533,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890451164","repostId":"2157835104","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803556201,"gmtCreate":1627450955303,"gmtModify":1703490222849,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803556201","repostId":"2154471932","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2154471932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627247520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154471932?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 05:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Still the same smell! BlackBerry 2021 New Phone Rendering Exposed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154471932","media":"中关村在线","summary":"黑莓几经易主，如今已经找到了新东家。而即将推出新手机的消息也不胫而走。不过，时至今日，黑莓的新品依然没有推出，不过在近日，外媒Letsgodigital就制作出了黑莓2021新品的外观图，依然实体的全键盘，以及方正的造型。不得不说，那个味真冲。对于黑莓这款手机的外观，你怎么看？","content":"<p><html><body><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>After several changes of owners, they have now found a new owner. And the news of the upcoming launch of a new mobile phone has spread like wildfire. However, to this day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>The new product has still not been launched, but recently, foreign media Letsgodigital has produced the appearance of the new BlackBerry 2021 product, which is still a physical full keyboard and a square shape. I have to say, that smell is really strong. What do you think about the appearance of BlackBerry?</p><p><figure><img h=\"578\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/718/w940h578/20210726/8468-0a1910548e8828cf66d91f68d6eaa49c.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"620\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/760/w940h620/20210726/7412-663b4776d38f3a8a4920905cd1f32167.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"640\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/780/w940h640/20210726/4e52-e25ec181d3a477377e7c2c33575e8eee.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"578\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/718/w940h578/20210726/478d-b8482eaac706d80526569900df4ae799.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"622\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/762/w940h622/20210726/4ae5-4a144a73988ad83ec20f15411827ed5a.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Still the same smell! BlackBerry 2021 New Phone Rendering Exposed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStill the same smell! BlackBerry 2021 New Phone Rendering Exposed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中关村在线</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 05:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>After several changes of owners, they have now found a new owner. And the news of the upcoming launch of a new mobile phone has spread like wildfire. However, to this day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry</a>The new product has still not been launched, but recently, foreign media Letsgodigital has produced the appearance of the new BlackBerry 2021 product, which is still a physical full keyboard and a square shape. I have to say, that smell is really strong. What do you think about the appearance of BlackBerry?</p><p><figure><img h=\"578\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/718/w940h578/20210726/8468-0a1910548e8828cf66d91f68d6eaa49c.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"620\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/760/w940h620/20210726/7412-663b4776d38f3a8a4920905cd1f32167.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"640\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/780/w940h640/20210726/4e52-e25ec181d3a477377e7c2c33575e8eee.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"578\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/718/w940h578/20210726/478d-b8482eaac706d80526569900df4ae799.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><figure><img h=\"622\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20210726/762/w940h622/20210726/4ae5-4a144a73988ad83ec20f15411827ed5a.jpg\" w=\"940\"/><h2></h2></figure><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/mobile/xp/2021-07-26/detail-ikqciyzk7627860.d.html?vt=4\">中关村在线</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/667/w400h267/20210726/e2fb-24bfb81f888fbdd8d1edd5bc3c8c45a1.jpg/w120h90l50t1215.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/mobile/xp/2021-07-26/detail-ikqciyzk7627860.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154471932","content_text":"黑莓几经易主，如今已经找到了新东家。而即将推出新手机的消息也不胫而走。不过，时至今日，黑莓的新品依然没有推出，不过在近日，外媒Letsgodigital就制作出了黑莓2021新品的外观图，依然实体的全键盘，以及方正的造型。不得不说，那个味真冲。对于黑莓这款手机的外观，你怎么看？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBRY":1,"BB":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177985511,"gmtCreate":1627176129333,"gmtModify":1703485020940,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177985511","repostId":"2154558939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"content":"Student driveHeart","text":"Student driveHeart","html":"Student driveHeart"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175300036,"gmtCreate":1627005057525,"gmtModify":1703482257122,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175300036","repostId":"1145426029","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145426029","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"界面是中国最大的商业新闻和社交平台，只服务于独立思考的人群。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"界面新闻","id":"30","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be3a47b8a80a6b0d62c8f48a7534c1af"},"pubTimestamp":1627004634,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145426029?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 09:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Louis Vuitton Announces Termination of Partnership with Kris Wu","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145426029","media":"界面新闻","summary":"@路易威登 微博7月23日发布声明称，鉴于相关通报，路易威登宣布终止与吴亦凡先生之合作关系。至此，吴亦凡所有的商务代言品牌均已发布声明终止与其合作关系。","content":"<p><div>@ Louis Vuitton Weibo issued a statement on July 23rd, saying that in view of the relevant notice, Louis Vuitton announced the termination of the cooperative relationship with Mr. Wu Yifan. So far, all of Wu Yifan's business endorsement brands have issued statements to terminate their cooperation relationships with them.</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Louis Vuitton Announces Termination of Partnership with Kris Wu</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLouis Vuitton Announces Termination of Partnership with Kris Wu\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/30\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/be3a47b8a80a6b0d62c8f48a7534c1af);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">界面新闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-23 09:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>@ Louis Vuitton Weibo issued a statement on July 23rd, saying that in view of the relevant notice, Louis Vuitton announced the termination of the cooperative relationship with Mr. Wu Yifan. So far, all of Wu Yifan's business endorsement brands have issued statements to terminate their cooperation relationships with them.</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f7117b8f61d803c2af1c8c8191ab6b","relate_stocks":{"LVMUY":"路易威登"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145426029","content_text":"@路易威登 微博7月23日发布声明称，鉴于相关通报，路易威登宣布终止与吴亦凡先生之合作关系。至此，吴亦凡所有的商务代言品牌均已发布声明终止与其合作关系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LVMUY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172967144,"gmtCreate":1626928351388,"gmtModify":1703480778006,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172967144","repostId":"1156634716","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149618013,"gmtCreate":1625721912232,"gmtModify":1703747116678,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149618013","repostId":"2149310828","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149310828","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625721752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149310828?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 13:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Burning money is crazy? Car Building Scares Investors Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149310828","media":"好看商业","summary":"投资人为什么怕了？","content":"<p>On July 7,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Landing in Hong Kong stocks and becoming the Hong Kong Stock Exchange \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Electric Vehicle First Stock \".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb0061f36bc078c5f5185507799a8fa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>XPeng is listed in Hong Kong stocks, just \"three fools to build cars\" (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng, Ideal) the beginning of Hong Kong.</p><p>Previously, Nio and Ideal also reported that they were going to be listed on Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Listing in many places, first US stocks, then Hong Kong stocks, and finally A shares, is likely to become the common financing path of \"three dumb cars\".</p><p>After all, to play the game of building a car, the more money the better.</p><p>In 2021, car manufacturing will once again stand in the forefront,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>360 and other Internet and technology giants have built cars across borders; Traditional OEMs such as SAIC and Geely have also launched new smart car brands; Although Huawei claims not to build cars, it also actively participates in the car manufacturing industry to help car companies build cars.</p><p>Compared with the last round of star entrepreneurs who entered the market to build cars, this wave of giants looks more \"ruthless\"-they have stronger capital and resource advantages, and seem determined to build cars.</p><p>Whether it is a star entrepreneur with a head and a face or this wave of technology giants, they are obviously serious about bowing into the game to build cars.</p><p>After all, you may not be able to build a car without burning tens of billions of funds, and no one wants to miss the multiple opportunities of fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, traditional cars to smart cars, and domestic cars to \"overtake in corners\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The soaring performance and market value of pioneers such as Nio, Ideal and XPeng have also become the confidence support of more entrants.</p><p>The entry of this wave of giants has also turned car-building into a higher-order money-burning game. The admission tickets are getting more expensive and fewer, and the admission risk is getting higher and higher.</p><p><b>But in sharp contrast, investors have generally calmed down. \"Can't afford to vote, don't dare to vote\" has become the state of many people in the primary market. Although the secondary market pays great attention to new cars, it is generally believed that the valuation is relatively high, and the industry competition has escalated into a major risk.</b></p><p>On the first day of listing of Hong Kong stocks, XPeng opened at HK$ 168, slightly higher than the issue price by 1.8%, but soon broke, and the share price hit a minimum of HK$ 159.3, and finally closed at HK$ 165.</p><p>It can be seen that the concerns of Hong Kong stock investors have emerged for intelligent electric vehicles.</p><p>New cars have never stopped burning money, the profit has not yet been realized, but the competition continues to escalate. Who can end up staying at the table at this stage of unusual competition for \"money ability\"?</p><p><h2><b>1 </b><b>Why do new car-building forces desperately raise funds?</b></h2>In the past two years, it has become a trend for Chinese stocks to return to Hong Kong, and new car-making forces represented by Xiaopeng Motors have also joined the tide of returning to Hong Kong.</p><p>This time, XPeng adopted the \"Dual Primary Listing\" method to land in Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Different from \"secondary listing\", \"dual primary listing\" refers to having dual listed entities, and its listing review is stricter, so it is easier to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is convenient for A-share investors to participate. This is also seen as XPeng Automobile paving the way for A-share listing.</p><p>The Dolphin Investment Research Team of Changqiao Securities believes that returning to Hong Kong for listing can bring several benefits to new car-making forces: avoiding the potential delisting risk in US stocks; Enrich financing channels; Expand the reach of businesses and products.</p><p>Last May, the U.S. Senate approved the Foreign Company Accountability Act, which is seen as targeting Chinese companies listed in the United States.</p><p>The bill requires that a foreign issuer's securities be prohibited from trading in the United States if it fails to meet the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board's requirements for inspecting accounting firms for three consecutive years.</p><p>\"The delisting risk of US stocks is higher than that of A shares, and Chinese stocks sometimes collectively face a crisis of trust, which may trigger the delisting risk,\" the Dolphin Investment Research team believes.</p><p>There were signs before the new car-making forces sought to go public in many places.</p><p>In early March, Reuters reported that Nio Motors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And XPeng plans to go public in Hong Kong as soon as this year. Based on its U.S. stock market value, it is estimated that the three companies can raise a total of $5 billion.</p><p>On May 25th, after the release of the 2021 Ideal ONE, Li Xiang, founder of Li Auto, publicly stated that \"I don't mind getting more capital reserves in any way in the future\", and I don't exclude obtaining funds from secondary market financing, bank loans and bond issuance.</p><p>In fact, in the short term, there is no shortage of money in the books of the three new car companies. By the end of the first quarter of this year, the capital reserves of Nio, XPeng and Ideal were 47.55 billion yuan, 36.2 billion yuan and 30.36 billion yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635c0c0010c12192e9c20dbe50244b97\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But the burning of money has never stopped, and profitability has not yet begun. The tens of billions of funds on the account can't give them enough security.</p><p>There are many more places where they have to spend money. According to the analysis of dolphin investment research, the immature technical route of smart cars leads to high pressure of R&D investment; Subverting the business model also needs to cooperate with the direct sales model, the cost of exhibition halls and sales staff, which makes it difficult for new car-making forces to realize the positive gross profit margin. At the same time, they also face fierce competition for products and talents.</p><p><b>An executive of an Internet brokerage firm mentioned that the listing of new car-making forces in many places should be a plan designed from the beginning, because the demand for funds for car-building is too large. First, go to the US stock market and then go back to Hong Kong stock market. The next step may be to seek A-share IPO, and this order can't be reversed, because if the first listing is placed in China, their situation will easily get stuck and they can't afford to wait.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, all three new car manufacturers have made a large scale by launching new models, upgrading supporting software, and expanding service and sales networks. R&D investment is even bigger. In 2021, they will all invest heavily in R&D. Nio and Ideal respectively made it clear that they will spend 5 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan as R&D expenses this year.</p><p>From the perspective of profitability, although the gross profit margins of the three companies have turned positive in fiscal year 2020, they are still at a loss as a whole. The total net loss of the three car companies in Q1 this year exceeded 1.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f3bb64c9dd3e943763f600ffd632b6\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To be truly profitable, you need a larger delivery volume. For earnings expectations, XPeng, which is the first to list in Hong Kong, expects to break even by the end of 2023 or 2024.</p><p>Before seeking to go public in many places, the three new car companies have raised funds through additional stock issuance in the U.S. stock market many times.</p><p>On December 4, 2020, Li Auto applied for an additional 47 million ADSs, which, according to estimates at the time, would raise a total of approximately $1.841 billion if the underwriters exercised the over-allotment option. On December 7th of the same year, XPeng raised up to $2.16 billion through the issuance of U.S. stocks, which was the largest initial issuance of stocks in the history of Chinese stocks.</p><p>Nio has completed three additional issuances of U.S. shares in the past year, with the first two raising $490 million and $1.73 billion respectively; The maximum amount raised by the additional offering on Dec. 14 last year was $3.05 billion.</p><p>Despite the continuous attraction of gold through multiple channels, the anxiety of new car companies about funds remains undiminished. XPeng made a risk warning in the prospectus of Hong Kong stocks-\"Enterprises are still generating losses and negative operating cash flow, and this situation may continue for some time\".</p><p>Compared with the three companies at the head, second-tier new car brands are struggling on the verge of food and clothing.</p><p><b>Funding for new car manufacturers in the primary market is becoming increasingly difficult. Under the double attack of new car companies and traditional OEMs, second-tier new car brands have pinned their financing hopes on the secondary market.</b></p><p>In April this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">Evergrande Automobile</a>Raised HK$26 billion in Hong Kong stocks. In addition, Evergrande Automobile, Nezha Automobile, AIWAYS Automobile, Leapmotor and Skyline Automobile all hope to land on the Science and Technology Innovation Board for financing.</p><p>However, the \"first car stock\" in the science and technology innovation board has been difficult to produce so far. Not long ago, WM Motor's IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was blocked, which also cast a shadow on the listing of other second-tier new car brands.</p><p><h2><b>2 </b><b>Giants enter the market, how does the competition escalate?</b></h2>Why are new car-building forces anxious?</p><p>Obviously, the new car track has become a competition between big players-traditional OEMs, technology giants and cross-border giants are showing their magical powers.</p><p>These companies may have supply chain advantages, financial strength, technical accumulation, or multiple advantages, and are often bigger and fiercer than new car-building forces in terms of \"block\".</p><p>The entrance of giants also raised the competition of \"money ability\" in the new car industry to a new rank.</p><p>In terms of financial strength, whether it is out-of-pocket or external financing, each company is closely expanding food, grass and ammunition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d33e3a7d17e8005e0d4afb44d2a2010\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Good-looking business charting based on publicly available information</p><p>In March this year, Baidu and Geely jointly established Jidu Automobile, a smart car company. Its CEO Xia Yiping said that after the launch of the first car, it plans to invest about 50 billion yuan in the next five years.</p><p>He also said, \"Foreign financing is something that must be done, and it is planned to do foreign financing in the third quarter of this year\".</p><p>Lei Jun, who regards car-building as the last big gamble in his entrepreneurial career, also changed his usual frugal posture, saying that \"Xiaomi is not bad in money and can afford to lose money\", and announced that he would invest 10 billion dollars in 10 years to build a car, with an initial investment of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2f25f650b4cefedfdbcc919a15b19c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Zhou Hongyi and his 360 don't want to miss this automotive revolution. However, 360 does not build a car himself, but tests the feasibility of providing safety technology for car companies by investing in Nezha Automobile.</p><p>After strategically leading the 3 billion yuan D round financing of Nezha Automobile, 360 may become the second largest shareholder of Nezha Automobile. In the short term, 360 mainly exports 360 safety systems for Nezha Automobile. According to Zhou Hongyi's plan, Nezha is just a sample of 360, which will provide safety technology for more car companies in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00751\">Skyworth Group</a>Huang Hongsheng, chairman of the board of directors and chairman of Kaiwo New Energy Vehicle, announced that Skyworth Automobile has invested 10 billion yuan to establish a dual-use system for business and passenger vehicles; Another 30 billion yuan will be invested in the future.</p><p>Evergrande Automobile, which entered the market to build cars earlier, showed its usual \"inhumanity\".</p><p>The 2020 annual report shows that they are simultaneously developing 14 cars; A total of 47.4 billion yuan has been invested in the new energy automobile industry, of which 24.9 billion yuan has been used for acquisition of core technologies and R&D expenses, and 22.5 billion yuan has been used for car factory construction, equipment procurement and auto parts procurement.</p><p>In the OEM camp,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">SAIC Group</a>It has also increased investment in new energy vehicles.</p><p>At present, BYD is the only company in the automobile industry that has laid out the whole industrial chain of new energy vehicles. During the three years from 2018 to 2020, BYD's annual R&D amount exceeded 8 billion yuan, with a total investment of about 25 billion yuan in the three years.</p><p>After the explosive model-\"BYD Han\" boosts its new energy sales, BYD will also make efforts on power batteries, DMI hybrid systems and software systems.</p><p>Geely Automobile, which has been developing slowly in new energy before, hopes to make a turnaround through the new brand Geely Jikrypton 001. The Geely Extreme Krypton 001 debuted at the Shanghai Auto Show and is scheduled for Q4 delivery this year. This car is built by Geely SEA's vast intelligent architecture. In order to build this intelligent architecture platform, Geely spent four years and invested more than 18 billion yuan.</p><p>Public data shows that Geely has invested more than 30 billion yuan in new energy research and development and industry. In the prospectus seeking listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Geely said that it would also increase R&D investment, and planned to raise 20 billion yuan, of which about 8 billion yuan would be used for the development of new energy and new models or the upgrading of some existing models; About 3 billion yuan will be used for forward-looking technology research and development projects related to new energy technologies. However, after the listing of Science and Technology Innovation Board failed, Geely said it would seek external financing.</p><p>At the end of November last year, SAIC and Ali jointly established a pure electric car brand \"Zhiji Auto\", with the first round of financing reaching 10 billion yuan, which also became a project with the first round of financing reaching 10 billion yuan in new cars.</p><p><b>While hoarding grain and grass, he recruited troops and horses. Since the beginning of this year, the \"fight for people\" of new energy vehicles has reached a white-hot stage.</b></p><p>All new car players began to poach people with high salaries. According to a report released by Liepin in January this year, new energy vehicles have become the fastest-growing field of new jobs, with a year-on-year surge of 103.53%. With the entry of new players, the news of robbing people with an annual salary of millions is endless.</p><p>Recently, Xiaomi released more than 20 autonomous driving-related positions that need to be \"urgently hired\" on the company's official website; Jidu Automobile plans to reach a scale of 2,000-3,000 people by the end of next year, including 400-500 software engineers.</p><p>Since June, 360 intelligent car team has started recruitment, and Zhou Hongyi is in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Personally, we welcome talents in the automobile industry to recommend themselves, saying that the company \"fully liberalizes and fully supports in terms of salary and benefits\".</p><p>In April this year, the recruitment of Li Auto Shanghai R&D Center has started, and the recruitment scale is expected to exceed 2,000 people. XPeng Motors will also double its R&D staff by the end of 2021.</p><p><b>In addition to digging people, it also takes a lot of money to build factories to expand production capacity and expand offline stores.</b></p><p>In order to subvert the traditional 4S stores, new forces such as Nio, Ideal and XPeng have rushed to open offline stores in shopping malls.</p><p>Even Huawei, which has repeatedly emphasized being a supplier of car companies, has joined the army of opening shops. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>According to Deep Net, in order to achieve Yu Chengdong's internal target of selling 300,000 units next year, Huawei plans to sell cars in 200 experience stores before the end of July, and expand to more than 1,000 by the end of the year.</p><p><h2><b>3 </b><b>Why are investors afraid?</b></h2>Car-building movement is like cooking oil on fire, but investment in car-building projects is like moths to flames.</p><p><b>Investors have generally been calm about car-building projects. Many PE/VC institutions said to good-looking businesses that they \"dare not vote\", \"can't afford to vote\" and \"it's too late to enter the market now\".</b></p><p>One industry consensus is that new cars have become a higher-order capital game, and admission tickets are becoming more expensive, less and more risky. Individual entrepreneurs are also not suitable for re-entering the market to build whole vehicles.</p><p>\"Whether it's an early project of the whole vehicle or a new investment of the fund, it's too late to enter the market at this point,\" a foreign investment institution told Good Looking Business. Now there are fewer opportunities and higher investment costs; Even for car-building projects with industrial background, it depends on the investment cost.</p><p>A local Pe investor even bluntly said, \"I don't look at the whole car, because the plate is too big, I can't afford it, and it's full of pits. In the end, it's good to have a hundred deaths.\"</p><p>\"Before, many funds spent money and then died in it. Everyone realized that this was a long-term investment.\" An FA organization that pays attention to the automobile track said that not many people dare to bet on this industry now, including local governments and industrial capital, because all those who dared to bet before have already gambled.</p><p><b>Even strong local government funds are a little \"discouraged\" from investing in new cars.</b></p><p>The person in charge of an enterprise that serves the local government's investment promotion told Good Looking Business, \"Government funds generally hold a negative attitude towards investing in vehicle projects. If the smart car project made by traditional OEMs is more supportive, forget about the rest, especially for those early vehicle projects, they will be very cautious\".</p><p>Nor did this trend develop in a day.</p><p>it Orange has a data of \"nearly five quarters\" as of Q3, 2020, which shows that in the popular industries with a financing amount of more than 4 billion yuan, there are only 15 financing events of \"new car manufacturing and hardware\", with a total financing amount of 22.744 billion yuan, which is far less popular than biomedicine, medical devices, integrated circuits, food, video and live broadcast.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb02f4553921a70f6e20ee5b0b9e01\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to a report released by BAIC Industrial Investment and Zero2IPO Research Center, in fact, since 2016, the proportion of investment in pan-automobile and big travel in the equity investment market has been declining, from 27.5% in 2016 to 14% in 2019.</p><p>In 2021, there are only a handful of private placement financing cases of new car companies.</p><p>According to public information, in January, Zero Running Technology announced Series B financing with an amount of 4.3 billion yuan. Strategic investors include SDIC Chuangyi and Zhejiang University Jiuyonghua Capital. Byton Automobile restarted and signed strategic cooperation framework agreements with Foxconn Technology Group and Nanjing Economic and Technological Development Zone.</p><p><b>Investors'\"fear\" of building cars, part of which comes from the increasing investment risk of the car-building track; There is also part of the tragedy of the last round of investment failure.</b></p><p>For example, Jia Yueting's \"LeTV Car Accident\".</p><p>In September and November, 2016, LeTV completed two rounds of financing, with a scale of nearly 1.7 billion US dollars. There were many well-known institutions such as Yingda Capital, Shenzhen Venture Capital and Xinhualian Group under State Grid. However, after the break of LeTV's ecological capital chain, LeTV's auto investors were deeply trapped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01faa1c3bd932212de51a245f42efd85\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is unknown whether LeTV has returned investors' funds at present. Although it still exists, it has repeatedly become a person subject to dishonesty and is plagued with lawsuits.</p><p>Jiangsu local governments have also stepped on thunder in new energy vehicle projects. According to public information, Byton, Sailin and Bojun Automobile, the new car companies that Jiangsu has given a lot of support, have been caught in the dilemma of closure and bankruptcy after burning out 16 billion yuan.</p><p>These \"tragedies\" are enough to discourage primary market investors.</p><p><b>In the secondary market, investors still pay high attention to new car stocks.</b></p><p>In Hong Kong stocks, XPeng Motors was nearly 15 times oversubscribed during its IPO.</p><p>In U.S. stocks, Nio, XPeng and Ideal recorded gains of about 70%, 90% and 100% respectively in the two months to July 7th. Tesla's share price gained the smallest over the same period, at about 5%.</p><p>In A-shares, BYD's share price has risen by more than 85% in less than two months after trading sideways for a period of time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a57909782454eb173ac6f6285a6be053\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An automotive analyst of a well-known domestic brokerage firm mentioned that behind the rise in the share price of smart car stocks, in addition to the stimulus of soaring performance, they also benefited from the increase in their software service revenue.</p><p>\"If smart electric vehicles can complete the closed loop from whole vehicles to software services and data revenue, the secondary market will not skimp on giving them high valuations,\" he said.</p><p>The Dolphin Investment Research Team of Changqiao Securities believes that the broad prospect of intelligent electric vehicles is unquestioned at present, and the policies of China and the European Union are also very powerful, but competition has escalated into a major risk.</p><p>They believe that the attention of the secondary market to smart cars is still very high, but at present, it is generally believed that the valuation is also relatively high, so the attention of the secondary market will spread to companies in the automobile industry chain.</p><p><b>While many people are still paying attention to the valuation and risks of new cars, Yan Yan, the founding managing partner of SAIF Asia Investment Fund, has already predicted the coming of the industry reshuffle.</b></p><p>Yan Yan recently asserted in an interview with the media that the bankruptcy of new car-making forces will not be too far away, and now many families are dying; Because without tens of billions of investment, cars can't be built.</p><p>Car-building has now evolved into a sport, and has entered an era of crazy competition for \"money ability\". How can I stay at the table?</p><p>There is a prize for this question, and the answer is worth at least 100 billion dollars.</p>","source":"lsy1622337641338","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Burning money is crazy? Car Building Scares Investors Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBurning money is crazy? Car Building Scares Investors Off\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">好看商业</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 13:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 7,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Landing in Hong Kong stocks and becoming the Hong Kong Stock Exchange \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Electric Vehicle First Stock \".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb0061f36bc078c5f5185507799a8fa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>XPeng is listed in Hong Kong stocks, just \"three fools to build cars\" (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng, Ideal) the beginning of Hong Kong.</p><p>Previously, Nio and Ideal also reported that they were going to be listed on Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Listing in many places, first US stocks, then Hong Kong stocks, and finally A shares, is likely to become the common financing path of \"three dumb cars\".</p><p>After all, to play the game of building a car, the more money the better.</p><p>In 2021, car manufacturing will once again stand in the forefront,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>360 and other Internet and technology giants have built cars across borders; Traditional OEMs such as SAIC and Geely have also launched new smart car brands; Although Huawei claims not to build cars, it also actively participates in the car manufacturing industry to help car companies build cars.</p><p>Compared with the last round of star entrepreneurs who entered the market to build cars, this wave of giants looks more \"ruthless\"-they have stronger capital and resource advantages, and seem determined to build cars.</p><p>Whether it is a star entrepreneur with a head and a face or this wave of technology giants, they are obviously serious about bowing into the game to build cars.</p><p>After all, you may not be able to build a car without burning tens of billions of funds, and no one wants to miss the multiple opportunities of fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, traditional cars to smart cars, and domestic cars to \"overtake in corners\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The soaring performance and market value of pioneers such as Nio, Ideal and XPeng have also become the confidence support of more entrants.</p><p>The entry of this wave of giants has also turned car-building into a higher-order money-burning game. The admission tickets are getting more expensive and fewer, and the admission risk is getting higher and higher.</p><p><b>But in sharp contrast, investors have generally calmed down. \"Can't afford to vote, don't dare to vote\" has become the state of many people in the primary market. Although the secondary market pays great attention to new cars, it is generally believed that the valuation is relatively high, and the industry competition has escalated into a major risk.</b></p><p>On the first day of listing of Hong Kong stocks, XPeng opened at HK$ 168, slightly higher than the issue price by 1.8%, but soon broke, and the share price hit a minimum of HK$ 159.3, and finally closed at HK$ 165.</p><p>It can be seen that the concerns of Hong Kong stock investors have emerged for intelligent electric vehicles.</p><p>New cars have never stopped burning money, the profit has not yet been realized, but the competition continues to escalate. Who can end up staying at the table at this stage of unusual competition for \"money ability\"?</p><p><h2><b>1 </b><b>Why do new car-building forces desperately raise funds?</b></h2>In the past two years, it has become a trend for Chinese stocks to return to Hong Kong, and new car-making forces represented by Xiaopeng Motors have also joined the tide of returning to Hong Kong.</p><p>This time, XPeng adopted the \"Dual Primary Listing\" method to land in Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Different from \"secondary listing\", \"dual primary listing\" refers to having dual listed entities, and its listing review is stricter, so it is easier to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is convenient for A-share investors to participate. This is also seen as XPeng Automobile paving the way for A-share listing.</p><p>The Dolphin Investment Research Team of Changqiao Securities believes that returning to Hong Kong for listing can bring several benefits to new car-making forces: avoiding the potential delisting risk in US stocks; Enrich financing channels; Expand the reach of businesses and products.</p><p>Last May, the U.S. Senate approved the Foreign Company Accountability Act, which is seen as targeting Chinese companies listed in the United States.</p><p>The bill requires that a foreign issuer's securities be prohibited from trading in the United States if it fails to meet the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board's requirements for inspecting accounting firms for three consecutive years.</p><p>\"The delisting risk of US stocks is higher than that of A shares, and Chinese stocks sometimes collectively face a crisis of trust, which may trigger the delisting risk,\" the Dolphin Investment Research team believes.</p><p>There were signs before the new car-making forces sought to go public in many places.</p><p>In early March, Reuters reported that Nio Motors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And XPeng plans to go public in Hong Kong as soon as this year. Based on its U.S. stock market value, it is estimated that the three companies can raise a total of $5 billion.</p><p>On May 25th, after the release of the 2021 Ideal ONE, Li Xiang, founder of Li Auto, publicly stated that \"I don't mind getting more capital reserves in any way in the future\", and I don't exclude obtaining funds from secondary market financing, bank loans and bond issuance.</p><p>In fact, in the short term, there is no shortage of money in the books of the three new car companies. By the end of the first quarter of this year, the capital reserves of Nio, XPeng and Ideal were 47.55 billion yuan, 36.2 billion yuan and 30.36 billion yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635c0c0010c12192e9c20dbe50244b97\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But the burning of money has never stopped, and profitability has not yet begun. The tens of billions of funds on the account can't give them enough security.</p><p>There are many more places where they have to spend money. According to the analysis of dolphin investment research, the immature technical route of smart cars leads to high pressure of R&D investment; Subverting the business model also needs to cooperate with the direct sales model, the cost of exhibition halls and sales staff, which makes it difficult for new car-making forces to realize the positive gross profit margin. At the same time, they also face fierce competition for products and talents.</p><p><b>An executive of an Internet brokerage firm mentioned that the listing of new car-making forces in many places should be a plan designed from the beginning, because the demand for funds for car-building is too large. First, go to the US stock market and then go back to Hong Kong stock market. The next step may be to seek A-share IPO, and this order can't be reversed, because if the first listing is placed in China, their situation will easily get stuck and they can't afford to wait.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, all three new car manufacturers have made a large scale by launching new models, upgrading supporting software, and expanding service and sales networks. R&D investment is even bigger. In 2021, they will all invest heavily in R&D. Nio and Ideal respectively made it clear that they will spend 5 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan as R&D expenses this year.</p><p>From the perspective of profitability, although the gross profit margins of the three companies have turned positive in fiscal year 2020, they are still at a loss as a whole. The total net loss of the three car companies in Q1 this year exceeded 1.5 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f3bb64c9dd3e943763f600ffd632b6\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To be truly profitable, you need a larger delivery volume. For earnings expectations, XPeng, which is the first to list in Hong Kong, expects to break even by the end of 2023 or 2024.</p><p>Before seeking to go public in many places, the three new car companies have raised funds through additional stock issuance in the U.S. stock market many times.</p><p>On December 4, 2020, Li Auto applied for an additional 47 million ADSs, which, according to estimates at the time, would raise a total of approximately $1.841 billion if the underwriters exercised the over-allotment option. On December 7th of the same year, XPeng raised up to $2.16 billion through the issuance of U.S. stocks, which was the largest initial issuance of stocks in the history of Chinese stocks.</p><p>Nio has completed three additional issuances of U.S. shares in the past year, with the first two raising $490 million and $1.73 billion respectively; The maximum amount raised by the additional offering on Dec. 14 last year was $3.05 billion.</p><p>Despite the continuous attraction of gold through multiple channels, the anxiety of new car companies about funds remains undiminished. XPeng made a risk warning in the prospectus of Hong Kong stocks-\"Enterprises are still generating losses and negative operating cash flow, and this situation may continue for some time\".</p><p>Compared with the three companies at the head, second-tier new car brands are struggling on the verge of food and clothing.</p><p><b>Funding for new car manufacturers in the primary market is becoming increasingly difficult. Under the double attack of new car companies and traditional OEMs, second-tier new car brands have pinned their financing hopes on the secondary market.</b></p><p>In April this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">Evergrande Automobile</a>Raised HK$26 billion in Hong Kong stocks. In addition, Evergrande Automobile, Nezha Automobile, AIWAYS Automobile, Leapmotor and Skyline Automobile all hope to land on the Science and Technology Innovation Board for financing.</p><p>However, the \"first car stock\" in the science and technology innovation board has been difficult to produce so far. Not long ago, WM Motor's IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was blocked, which also cast a shadow on the listing of other second-tier new car brands.</p><p><h2><b>2 </b><b>Giants enter the market, how does the competition escalate?</b></h2>Why are new car-building forces anxious?</p><p>Obviously, the new car track has become a competition between big players-traditional OEMs, technology giants and cross-border giants are showing their magical powers.</p><p>These companies may have supply chain advantages, financial strength, technical accumulation, or multiple advantages, and are often bigger and fiercer than new car-building forces in terms of \"block\".</p><p>The entrance of giants also raised the competition of \"money ability\" in the new car industry to a new rank.</p><p>In terms of financial strength, whether it is out-of-pocket or external financing, each company is closely expanding food, grass and ammunition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d33e3a7d17e8005e0d4afb44d2a2010\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Good-looking business charting based on publicly available information</p><p>In March this year, Baidu and Geely jointly established Jidu Automobile, a smart car company. Its CEO Xia Yiping said that after the launch of the first car, it plans to invest about 50 billion yuan in the next five years.</p><p>He also said, \"Foreign financing is something that must be done, and it is planned to do foreign financing in the third quarter of this year\".</p><p>Lei Jun, who regards car-building as the last big gamble in his entrepreneurial career, also changed his usual frugal posture, saying that \"Xiaomi is not bad in money and can afford to lose money\", and announced that he would invest 10 billion dollars in 10 years to build a car, with an initial investment of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2f25f650b4cefedfdbcc919a15b19c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Zhou Hongyi and his 360 don't want to miss this automotive revolution. However, 360 does not build a car himself, but tests the feasibility of providing safety technology for car companies by investing in Nezha Automobile.</p><p>After strategically leading the 3 billion yuan D round financing of Nezha Automobile, 360 may become the second largest shareholder of Nezha Automobile. In the short term, 360 mainly exports 360 safety systems for Nezha Automobile. According to Zhou Hongyi's plan, Nezha is just a sample of 360, which will provide safety technology for more car companies in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00751\">Skyworth Group</a>Huang Hongsheng, chairman of the board of directors and chairman of Kaiwo New Energy Vehicle, announced that Skyworth Automobile has invested 10 billion yuan to establish a dual-use system for business and passenger vehicles; Another 30 billion yuan will be invested in the future.</p><p>Evergrande Automobile, which entered the market to build cars earlier, showed its usual \"inhumanity\".</p><p>The 2020 annual report shows that they are simultaneously developing 14 cars; A total of 47.4 billion yuan has been invested in the new energy automobile industry, of which 24.9 billion yuan has been used for acquisition of core technologies and R&D expenses, and 22.5 billion yuan has been used for car factory construction, equipment procurement and auto parts procurement.</p><p>In the OEM camp,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">SAIC Group</a>It has also increased investment in new energy vehicles.</p><p>At present, BYD is the only company in the automobile industry that has laid out the whole industrial chain of new energy vehicles. During the three years from 2018 to 2020, BYD's annual R&D amount exceeded 8 billion yuan, with a total investment of about 25 billion yuan in the three years.</p><p>After the explosive model-\"BYD Han\" boosts its new energy sales, BYD will also make efforts on power batteries, DMI hybrid systems and software systems.</p><p>Geely Automobile, which has been developing slowly in new energy before, hopes to make a turnaround through the new brand Geely Jikrypton 001. The Geely Extreme Krypton 001 debuted at the Shanghai Auto Show and is scheduled for Q4 delivery this year. This car is built by Geely SEA's vast intelligent architecture. In order to build this intelligent architecture platform, Geely spent four years and invested more than 18 billion yuan.</p><p>Public data shows that Geely has invested more than 30 billion yuan in new energy research and development and industry. In the prospectus seeking listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Geely said that it would also increase R&D investment, and planned to raise 20 billion yuan, of which about 8 billion yuan would be used for the development of new energy and new models or the upgrading of some existing models; About 3 billion yuan will be used for forward-looking technology research and development projects related to new energy technologies. However, after the listing of Science and Technology Innovation Board failed, Geely said it would seek external financing.</p><p>At the end of November last year, SAIC and Ali jointly established a pure electric car brand \"Zhiji Auto\", with the first round of financing reaching 10 billion yuan, which also became a project with the first round of financing reaching 10 billion yuan in new cars.</p><p><b>While hoarding grain and grass, he recruited troops and horses. Since the beginning of this year, the \"fight for people\" of new energy vehicles has reached a white-hot stage.</b></p><p>All new car players began to poach people with high salaries. According to a report released by Liepin in January this year, new energy vehicles have become the fastest-growing field of new jobs, with a year-on-year surge of 103.53%. With the entry of new players, the news of robbing people with an annual salary of millions is endless.</p><p>Recently, Xiaomi released more than 20 autonomous driving-related positions that need to be \"urgently hired\" on the company's official website; Jidu Automobile plans to reach a scale of 2,000-3,000 people by the end of next year, including 400-500 software engineers.</p><p>Since June, 360 intelligent car team has started recruitment, and Zhou Hongyi is in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Personally, we welcome talents in the automobile industry to recommend themselves, saying that the company \"fully liberalizes and fully supports in terms of salary and benefits\".</p><p>In April this year, the recruitment of Li Auto Shanghai R&D Center has started, and the recruitment scale is expected to exceed 2,000 people. XPeng Motors will also double its R&D staff by the end of 2021.</p><p><b>In addition to digging people, it also takes a lot of money to build factories to expand production capacity and expand offline stores.</b></p><p>In order to subvert the traditional 4S stores, new forces such as Nio, Ideal and XPeng have rushed to open offline stores in shopping malls.</p><p>Even Huawei, which has repeatedly emphasized being a supplier of car companies, has joined the army of opening shops. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>According to Deep Net, in order to achieve Yu Chengdong's internal target of selling 300,000 units next year, Huawei plans to sell cars in 200 experience stores before the end of July, and expand to more than 1,000 by the end of the year.</p><p><h2><b>3 </b><b>Why are investors afraid?</b></h2>Car-building movement is like cooking oil on fire, but investment in car-building projects is like moths to flames.</p><p><b>Investors have generally been calm about car-building projects. Many PE/VC institutions said to good-looking businesses that they \"dare not vote\", \"can't afford to vote\" and \"it's too late to enter the market now\".</b></p><p>One industry consensus is that new cars have become a higher-order capital game, and admission tickets are becoming more expensive, less and more risky. Individual entrepreneurs are also not suitable for re-entering the market to build whole vehicles.</p><p>\"Whether it's an early project of the whole vehicle or a new investment of the fund, it's too late to enter the market at this point,\" a foreign investment institution told Good Looking Business. Now there are fewer opportunities and higher investment costs; Even for car-building projects with industrial background, it depends on the investment cost.</p><p>A local Pe investor even bluntly said, \"I don't look at the whole car, because the plate is too big, I can't afford it, and it's full of pits. In the end, it's good to have a hundred deaths.\"</p><p>\"Before, many funds spent money and then died in it. Everyone realized that this was a long-term investment.\" An FA organization that pays attention to the automobile track said that not many people dare to bet on this industry now, including local governments and industrial capital, because all those who dared to bet before have already gambled.</p><p><b>Even strong local government funds are a little \"discouraged\" from investing in new cars.</b></p><p>The person in charge of an enterprise that serves the local government's investment promotion told Good Looking Business, \"Government funds generally hold a negative attitude towards investing in vehicle projects. If the smart car project made by traditional OEMs is more supportive, forget about the rest, especially for those early vehicle projects, they will be very cautious\".</p><p>Nor did this trend develop in a day.</p><p>it Orange has a data of \"nearly five quarters\" as of Q3, 2020, which shows that in the popular industries with a financing amount of more than 4 billion yuan, there are only 15 financing events of \"new car manufacturing and hardware\", with a total financing amount of 22.744 billion yuan, which is far less popular than biomedicine, medical devices, integrated circuits, food, video and live broadcast.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb02f4553921a70f6e20ee5b0b9e01\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to a report released by BAIC Industrial Investment and Zero2IPO Research Center, in fact, since 2016, the proportion of investment in pan-automobile and big travel in the equity investment market has been declining, from 27.5% in 2016 to 14% in 2019.</p><p>In 2021, there are only a handful of private placement financing cases of new car companies.</p><p>According to public information, in January, Zero Running Technology announced Series B financing with an amount of 4.3 billion yuan. Strategic investors include SDIC Chuangyi and Zhejiang University Jiuyonghua Capital. Byton Automobile restarted and signed strategic cooperation framework agreements with Foxconn Technology Group and Nanjing Economic and Technological Development Zone.</p><p><b>Investors'\"fear\" of building cars, part of which comes from the increasing investment risk of the car-building track; There is also part of the tragedy of the last round of investment failure.</b></p><p>For example, Jia Yueting's \"LeTV Car Accident\".</p><p>In September and November, 2016, LeTV completed two rounds of financing, with a scale of nearly 1.7 billion US dollars. There were many well-known institutions such as Yingda Capital, Shenzhen Venture Capital and Xinhualian Group under State Grid. However, after the break of LeTV's ecological capital chain, LeTV's auto investors were deeply trapped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01faa1c3bd932212de51a245f42efd85\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is unknown whether LeTV has returned investors' funds at present. Although it still exists, it has repeatedly become a person subject to dishonesty and is plagued with lawsuits.</p><p>Jiangsu local governments have also stepped on thunder in new energy vehicle projects. According to public information, Byton, Sailin and Bojun Automobile, the new car companies that Jiangsu has given a lot of support, have been caught in the dilemma of closure and bankruptcy after burning out 16 billion yuan.</p><p>These \"tragedies\" are enough to discourage primary market investors.</p><p><b>In the secondary market, investors still pay high attention to new car stocks.</b></p><p>In Hong Kong stocks, XPeng Motors was nearly 15 times oversubscribed during its IPO.</p><p>In U.S. stocks, Nio, XPeng and Ideal recorded gains of about 70%, 90% and 100% respectively in the two months to July 7th. Tesla's share price gained the smallest over the same period, at about 5%.</p><p>In A-shares, BYD's share price has risen by more than 85% in less than two months after trading sideways for a period of time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a57909782454eb173ac6f6285a6be053\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An automotive analyst of a well-known domestic brokerage firm mentioned that behind the rise in the share price of smart car stocks, in addition to the stimulus of soaring performance, they also benefited from the increase in their software service revenue.</p><p>\"If smart electric vehicles can complete the closed loop from whole vehicles to software services and data revenue, the secondary market will not skimp on giving them high valuations,\" he said.</p><p>The Dolphin Investment Research Team of Changqiao Securities believes that the broad prospect of intelligent electric vehicles is unquestioned at present, and the policies of China and the European Union are also very powerful, but competition has escalated into a major risk.</p><p>They believe that the attention of the secondary market to smart cars is still very high, but at present, it is generally believed that the valuation is also relatively high, so the attention of the secondary market will spread to companies in the automobile industry chain.</p><p><b>While many people are still paying attention to the valuation and risks of new cars, Yan Yan, the founding managing partner of SAIF Asia Investment Fund, has already predicted the coming of the industry reshuffle.</b></p><p>Yan Yan recently asserted in an interview with the media that the bankruptcy of new car-making forces will not be too far away, and now many families are dying; Because without tens of billions of investment, cars can't be built.</p><p>Car-building has now evolved into a sport, and has entered an era of crazy competition for \"money ability\". How can I stay at the table?</p><p>There is a prize for this question, and the answer is worth at least 100 billion dollars.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1301423355117957\">好看商业</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb0061f36bc078c5f5185507799a8fa","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1301423355117957","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149310828","content_text":"7月7日，小鹏汽车登陆港股，成港交所“智能电动汽车第一股”。\n\n小鹏在港股挂牌，只是“造车三傻”（蔚来、小鹏、理想）闯香港的开始。\n此前，蔚来、理想也传出要在港股上市的消息。\n而多地上市，先美股，再港股，最后上A股，很可能成为“造车三傻”共同的融资路径。\n毕竟，要玩造车这个游戏，钱是多多益善的。\n2021年，造车再次站上风口，百度、小米、滴滴、360等互联网、科技巨头纷纷跨界造车；上汽、吉利这样的传统整车厂也纷纷推出新的智能汽车品牌；华为虽然声称不造车，但也积极投身造车产业，要帮助车企造车。\n相比上一轮明星创业者入局造车，这一波巨头看上去更“狠”一些——他们有更强的资金和资源优势，对造车似乎志在必得。\n无论是有头有脸的明星创业者，还是这一波科技巨头，他们躬身入局造车显然是认真的。\n毕竟，不烧几百亿资金可能都造不出一辆车，而燃油车向电动车过度、传统汽车向智能汽车过度、国产汽车“弯道超车”的多重时代机遇没人愿意错过。\n特斯拉、蔚来、理想、和小鹏这些先行者业绩和市值的飙升也成为更多入局者的信心支撑。\n这一波巨头的入局也让造车变成了更高阶的烧钱游戏，入场的门票越来越贵，越来越少，入场风险也越来越高。\n但与之形成强烈反差的是，投资者已经普遍冷静下来。“投不起、不敢投”成为一级市场很多人的状态。二级市场虽然对新造车关注度很高，但也普遍认为估值比较高了，行业竞争升级成主要风险。\n港股挂牌首日，小鹏以168港元开盘，较发行价略高1.8%，但很快破发，股价最低触及159.3港元，最终以165港元收盘。\n可见，对于智能电动汽车，港股投资人的顾虑已经显现。\n新造车烧钱从未停止，盈利尚未实现，竞争却持续升级。在这个异常比拼“钞能力”的阶段，谁能最终留在牌桌上？\n1 造车新势力为什么拼命融资？\n近两年中概股回港成为趋势，以小鹏汽车为代表的造车新势力也加入了回港大潮。\n这一次，小鹏登陆港股采用的是“双重主要上市”（Dual Primary Listing）的方式。\n与“二次上市”不同，“双重主要上市”是指具有双上市主体，其上市审核更严格，因此更容易被纳入港股通，方便A股投资者参与。这也被视作小鹏汽车为A股上市铺路。\n长桥证券海豚投研团队认为，回港上市能为造车新势力带来这样几点好处：规避在美股的潜在退市风险；丰富融资渠道；扩大企业和产品的影响力。\n去年5月，美国国会参议院批准通过《外国公司问责法案》，该方案被视为主要针对在美上市的中国公司。\n该法案要求，外国发行人连续三年不能满足美国公众公司会计监督委员会对会计师事务所检查要求的，其证券禁止在美交易。\n“美股退市风险比A股高，中概股有时会集体面临信任危机，就可能会触发退市风险，”海豚投研团队认为。\n造车新势力谋求多地上市此前就有预兆。\n今年3月初，路透社曾报道，蔚来汽车、理想汽车和小鹏汽车计划最快今年在香港上市。根据其美股市值推断，预计三家共可筹资50亿美元。\n5月25日，在发布2021款理想ONE后，理想汽车创始人李想公开表示，“未来不介意任何方式去获得更多的资金储备”，不排斥从二级市场融资、银行贷款和发债等方式获取资金。\n其实短期来看，三家新造车公司的账上都不缺钱。截至今年一季度末，蔚来、小鹏和理想的资金储备分别为：475.5亿元，362亿元、303.6亿元。\n\n但烧钱从未停止，盈利尚未开始。账上的几百亿资金，还不能给他们足够的安全感。\n他们要花钱的地方还有很多。海豚投研分析，智能车技术路线的不成熟导致研发投入压力大；颠覆商业模式也需要配合直营的销售模式，展厅和销售人员的成本，这些都使得造车新势力想实现毛利率转正本身就比较困难。同时他们还面临产品和人才的激烈竞争。\n一家互联网券商的高管提到，造车新势力在多地上市应该是一开始就设计好的方案，因为造车的资金需求量太大，先上美股，再回港股，下一步可能就要寻求A股IPO，且这个顺序不能反过来，因为如果首次上市放在国内，他们的状况很容易卡住，等不起。\n今年以来，三家新造车公司均通过推出新车型、升级配套软件、扩充服务和销售网络等方式来做大规模。研发投入更是大头，2021年他们都将重金投入研发，蔚来和理想分别明确今年会豪掷50亿元、30亿元作为研发费用。\n而从盈利状况来看，虽然在2020财年三家公司的毛利率均已转正，但整体仍处于亏损之中。今年Q1三家车企合计净亏损超过15亿元。\n\n想实现真正的盈利，需要更大规模的交付量。对于盈利预期，率先在港上市的小鹏预计在2023年底或2024年实现收支平衡。\n在谋求多地上市之前，三家新造车公司已经在美股多次通过增发股票融资。\n2020年12月4日，理想汽车申请增发4700万美国存托股，据当时的估算，如果承销商行使超额配售权，总计将筹得约18.41亿美元。同年12月7日，小鹏通过美股增发，最多融资21.6亿美元，为中概股史上最大规模的首次股票增发。\n蔚来在过去一年内完成三次美股增发，前两次分别融资4.9亿美元和17.3亿美元；去年12月14日的增发最大募集金额为30.5亿美元。\n尽管不断多渠道吸金，新造车公司对资金的焦虑不减。小鹏在港股招股书中做出风险提示——“企业目前仍在产生亏损和负经营现金流，这一情况可能还会持续一段时间”。\n相比头部的三家公司，二线新造车品牌更是挣扎在温饱边缘。\n新造车公司在一级市场的融资变得越来越困难。在新造车公司和传统主机厂的双重夹击下，二线新造车品牌纷纷将融资希望寄托在二级市场。\n今年4月，恒大汽车在港股定增筹资260亿港元。此外，恒大汽车、哪吒汽车、爱驰汽车、零跑汽车和天际汽车均希望登陆科创板融资。\n但科创板“汽车第一股”至今难产。不久前，威马汽车在科创板的IPO受阻，这也为其它二线新造车品牌的上市蒙上阴影。\n2 巨头进场，竞争是如何升级的？\n造车新势力为什么焦虑？\n很显然，新造车赛道已经变成了大玩家的比拼——传统整车厂、科技巨头、跨界巨头们各显神通。\n这些公司或有供应链优势，或有资金实力，或有技术积淀，或兼具多种优势，在“块头”上往往比造车新势力更大更猛。\n巨头进场，也让新造车行业的“钞能力”比拼被拉升到新的段位。\n在资金实力上，无论是自掏腰包，还是外部融资，各家都在紧密扩充粮草弹药。\n\n好看商业根据公开信息制图\n今年3月，百度与吉利合资成立了智能汽车公司集度汽车。其CEO夏一平称，在第一款车推出后，计划未来五年投资规模约500亿元。\n他还表示，“对外融资是一定要做的事，计划今年第三季度会做对外融资”。\n把造车视为创业生涯最后一次豪赌的雷军，也一改往常的俭朴姿态，放话“小米不差钱、亏得起”，并宣布10年投资100亿美元造车，首期投资100亿元人民币。\n\n周鸿祎和他的360不想错过这场汽车革命。但360并不是亲自造车，而是通过入股哪吒汽车，试水为车企提供安全技术的可行性。\n在战略领投了哪吒汽车的30亿元D轮融资后，360或成哪吒汽车的第二大股东。短期内，360主要为为哪吒汽车输出360的安全系统。据周鸿祎计划，哪吒只是360的样本，未来为更多车企提供安全技术。\n创维集团董事长、同时也是开沃新能源汽车董事长的黄宏生宣布，创维汽车目前已经投入100亿元，建立起商乘两用的体系；未来再还将再投资300亿元。\n更早入局造车的恒大汽车则展现了一贯的“壕无人性”。\n2020年报显示，他们正在同步研发14款车；在新能源汽车产业已累计总投入474亿元，其中249亿元用于收购核心技术和研发费用，225亿元用于车厂建设、设备采购、汽车零部件采购等。\n在整车厂阵营，比亚迪、吉利汽车与上汽集团也加大了新能源车的投入。\n比亚迪是目前汽车行业内唯一在新能源汽车全产业链布局的公司。2018-2020三年间，比亚迪每年的研发金额均超过80亿元，三年总计投入约250亿。\n在爆款车型——“比亚迪*汉”拉动其新能源销量后，比亚迪还将在动力电池、DMI混动系统和软件系统上发力。\n此前在新能源上发展缓慢的吉利汽车，希望通过新品牌吉利极氪001打场翻身仗。吉利极氪001于上海车展首次亮相，并计划今年Q4交付。这款车由吉利SEA浩瀚智能架构一手打造。为打造这款智能架构平台，吉利耗时4年，投入超过180亿元。\n公开数据显示，吉利在新能源研发及产业已投入超300亿元。在寻求科创板上市的招股书中，吉利称还将加大研发投入，拟募资200亿元，其中约80亿元用于新能源新车型开发或现有部分车型的升级换代；约30亿元用于新能源技术相关的前瞻技术研发项目。不过，在科创板上市折戟后，吉利表示将寻求外部融资。\n去年11月底，上汽联合阿里合资成立了纯电汽车品牌“智己汽车”，首轮融资达到100亿人民币，这也成为新造车里首轮融资就达到100亿元的项目。\n一边囤积粮草，一边招兵买马。今年以来，新能源汽车汽车“抢人大战”已至白热化阶段。\n各个新造车玩家开始高薪挖人。猎聘今年1月发布的报告显示，新能源汽车已经成为新发职位增长最快领域，同比激增103.53%。随着新玩家入场，年薪几百万抢人的消息不绝于耳。\n近日，小米于公司官网发布20余个需要“急聘”的自动驾驶相关岗位；集度汽车计划明年年底达到2000人-3000人的规模，其中包括400-500名软件工程师。\n6月以来，360智能汽车团队开启招聘，周鸿祎在微博亲自吆喝，欢迎汽车界人才自荐，称公司“在薪酬待遇方面全面放开、全力支持”。\n今年4月，理想汽车上海研发中心招聘已经启动，预计招聘规模超过2000人。小鹏汽车到2021年底研发人员数量也将翻倍。\n除挖人大战外，建厂扩充产能、扩充线下门店也需要投入大笔资金。\n为颠覆传统的4S店，蔚来、理想和小鹏等新势力，已经在购物中心争相开线下店。\n即便是反复强调做车企供应商的华为，也加入到开店大军中。据腾讯深网报道，为实现余承东内部敲定明年销售30万台的目标，华为计划7月底前在200家体验店卖车，年底拓展到1000家以上。\n3 投资人为什么怕了？\n造车运动如烈火烹油，造车项目的投资却像飞蛾扑火。\n投资人对造车项目已普遍冷静。多家PE/VC机构对好看商业表示，“不敢投”、“投不起”、“现在进场太晚了”。\n一个业界的共识是，新造车已成为一个更高阶的资本游戏，入场的门票越来越贵，越来越少，风险越来越高。个人创业者也不适合再入场造整车。\n“无论是做整车的早期项目、还是基金新入局投资，这个点进场都太晚了，”一家外资投资机构告诉好看商业，现在机会少了，投资的成本也更高了；即便是有产业背景的造车项目，也要看投资成本。\n一位本土Pe投资人甚至直言，“我不看整车，因为盘子太大、投不起、里头都是坑，最后有个百死一生都算好的。”\n“之前有很多基金都撒了钱，然后死在里面了，大家都意识到这是一个长期投资的事情” 一家关注汽车赛道的FA机构称，包括地方政府、产业资本在内，现在敢赌这个行业的不多了，因为之前敢赌的都已经赌过了。\n即便是实力雄厚的地方政府基金，对投资新造车也有点“望而却步”。\n一家服务于地方政府招商引资的企业负责人告诉好看商业，“政府基金对投资整车项目普遍持消极态度。如果是传统整车厂做的智能汽车项目还比较支持，其它的就算了，特别是对那些早期的整车项目，会非常谨慎”。\n这个趋势也不是一天形成的。\nit桔子有一份截至2020年Q3的“近5个季度”的数据，其中显示，融资额超过40亿元的热门行业里，“新车制造及硬件”融资事件只有15起，融资总额227.44亿元，远不及生物医药、医疗器械、集成电路、美食、视频、直播这样的行业热门。\n\n北汽产投联合清科研究中心发布的一份报告显示，其实2016年以来，泛汽车与大出行领域投资金额占股权投资市场比重就在下滑，从2016年的27.5%下降为2019年的14%。\n进入2021年，新造车公司的私募融资案更是例屈指可数。\n据公开信息，1月份，零跑科技公布 B 轮融资，金额 43 亿元，战略投资方包括国投创益、浙大九涌铧资本等。拜腾汽车重启，与富士康科技集团、南京经济技术开发区签署战略合作框架协议。\n投资人对造车的“畏惧感”，部分来自造车赛道的投资风险越来越高；还有部分来自上一轮投资失败的惨案。\n比如贾跃亭的“乐视汽车事故”。\n2016年9月11月，乐视分别完成两轮融资，规模近17亿美金，投资方不乏国家电网旗下的英大资本、深创投、新华联集团等知名机构。但乐视生态资金链断裂后，乐视汽车投资方被深套。\n\n乐视汽车目前是否已退还投资方资金不得而知。虽然仍在存续状态，但其已经多次成为失信被执行人，官司缠身。\n江苏地方政府也曾在新能源汽车项目上接连踩雷。据公开信息，江苏给予诸多支持的新造车公司拜腾、赛麟和博郡汽车烧光160亿之后，纷纷陷入关停、倒闭的困局。\n这些“惨案”足以让一级市场投资人望而却步。\n在二级市场，投资人对新造车股票依然有较高关注度。\n在港股，小鹏汽车的IPO招股期间获得近15倍超额认购。\n在美股，截至7月7日的2个月里，蔚来、小鹏、理想的股票分别录得约70%、90%和100%的涨幅。同期特斯拉的股价涨幅最小，约为5%。\n在A股，比亚迪股价在横盘一段时间后，过去不到2个月时间里涨超85%。\n\n国内知名券商的一位汽车分析师提到，智能汽车股股价上涨背后，除了业绩飙升的刺激，还受益于他们软件服务营收的增加。\n“如果智能电动汽车可以完成从整车到软件服务、数据收入的闭环，二级市场是不会吝啬给他们高估值的”，他说。\n长桥证券海豚投研团队认为，智能电动汽车的广阔前景目前是没有质疑的，中国、欧盟等的政策也很给力，但竞争升级成主要风险。\n他们认为，二级市场对智能汽车的关注度仍然很高，但目前普遍认为估值也比较高了，所以二级市场的关注点会扩散到汽车产业链上的公司。\n当很多人还在关注新造车的估值和风险时，赛富亚洲投资基金创始管理合伙人阎焱已经预感到了行业洗牌的来临。\n阎焱近日接受媒体采访时断言：造车新势力的倒闭潮不会太远，现在很多家已经奄奄一息了；因为没有几百亿的投资，车造不出来。\n造车如今已经演变成一场运动，并步入疯狂比拼“钞能力”的时代。怎么才能留在牌桌上呢？\n这个问题有奖竞猜，答案至少价值千亿美金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156371728,"gmtCreate":1625199215764,"gmtModify":1703738207585,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156371728","repostId":"1173124848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156371826,"gmtCreate":1625199198365,"gmtModify":1703738206773,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156371826","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187095645,"gmtCreate":1623728965687,"gmtModify":1704209774110,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187095645","repostId":"1193820370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193820370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623725162,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193820370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan CEO: Has hoarded $500 billion, bargain-hunting after rate hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193820370","media":"智通财经","summary":"该行在“有效地囤积”现金，而不是用它来购买国债或其他投资。","content":"<p>Author: Dan Li</p><p>While there is no clear prediction of when the Fed may remove easing, JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank by assets in the United States, is already \"hoarding ammunition\" to sweep up goods when the Fed rate hike earlier than expected.</p><p>On Monday, June 14th, Eastern Time, JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon said in an online meeting that JPMorgan Chase is already \"effectively hoarding\" cash instead of using these funds to buy American Treasury Bond and other investment products because the future upward inflation may force the Federal Reserve to rate hike. This is so that you can buy assets with higher returns when you are in the rate hike. Dimon said:</p><p>\"We have a lot of cash and we are very capable, and we will be very patient. Because I think it is very likely that inflation will be more than just temporary.\"\"We already have $500 billion in cash on our balance sheet. In fact, we have been effectively hoarding more and more cash, waiting for investment opportunities when interest rates rise. I do expect interest rates to rise, inflation to rise, and we are preparing for that.\" On Monday, James Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley, another Wall Street giant, also mentioned in an interview with the media that he expected the situation of rising inflation to last, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to rate hike earlier than expected.</p><p>\"The question is when the Fed will act. It will have to make a move at some point. I think it is more likely to be more inclined to come earlier than the current dot plot suggests, rather than later than that.\" A dot plot of interest rates updated after the Fed's meeting in March shows that most Fed officials expect to keep the current near-zero rate unchanged until late 2023. The statement of the Fed meeting in April acknowledged that COVID-19 vaccination drove the economy stronger, but believed that the inflation rose due to temporary factors, and pointed out that the industries hardest hit by the epidemic were still weak, reiterating the forward guidance of interest rates since September last year, allowing \"inflation to be moderately higher than 2% over a period of time, so that the average inflation over a period of time can reach 2%\".</p><p>However, since then, the core PCE price index of the United States in April reached the fastest year-on-year growth rate since 1992, and CPI and core CPI in May reached the fastest growth rate since 2008 and 1992 respectively. Last week, Bank of America warned that at a time when U.S. inflation hit new highs in April and May, as labor shortages and signs of inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of both the Federal Reserve and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the foundation for more sustained inflation in the future is being laid from this moment. \"History has shown that once inflation is higher, it can be difficult to contain without triggering a recession\".</p><p>JPMorgan Chase's second-quarter trading revenue may plummet 38%, lowering its net interest income forecast for this year</p><p>While warning that the Federal Reserve may advance the rate hike, Dimon also mentioned on Monday that the bank's trading revenue will drop significantly after the outbreak of last year's pandemic.</p><p>In the second quarter of this year, Dimon said, JPMorgan Chase's fixed income and stock trading revenue will be \"more normal,\" with trading revenue set to be just over $6 billion, lower than during the special period during the pandemic a year ago. This means that the bank's trading revenue will decrease by about 38% this quarter from the record $9.7 billion in the second quarter of last year, which is more than Wall Street consensus expectations. Even analysts' already-declining JPMorgan trading revenue estimates average $6.5 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.</p><p>Dimon said that the revenue of investment banking business in the second quarter is expected to increase by about 20% year-on-year, and the revenue of investment banking related to M&A advisory and stock and bond issuance in the quarter may be among the best in the history of the bank.</p><p>Dimon revealed that JPMorgan expects net interest income of $52.5 billion this year, down from the previous estimate of $55 billion. \"I know it's a little disappointing,\" he said.</p><p>After Dimon's remarks, JPMorgan shares accelerated their intraday decline, falling more than 2.2% at one point before finishing down 1.7%. The five largest U.S. bank stocks all fell on Monday, with JPMorgan Chase leading the loser.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/935b6edc71fb0a29bda0608c03e31add\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan CEO: Has hoarded $500 billion, bargain-hunting after rate hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan CEO: Has hoarded $500 billion, bargain-hunting after rate hike\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Dan Li</p><p>While there is no clear prediction of when the Fed may remove easing, JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank by assets in the United States, is already \"hoarding ammunition\" to sweep up goods when the Fed rate hike earlier than expected.</p><p>On Monday, June 14th, Eastern Time, JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon said in an online meeting that JPMorgan Chase is already \"effectively hoarding\" cash instead of using these funds to buy American Treasury Bond and other investment products because the future upward inflation may force the Federal Reserve to rate hike. This is so that you can buy assets with higher returns when you are in the rate hike. Dimon said:</p><p>\"We have a lot of cash and we are very capable, and we will be very patient. Because I think it is very likely that inflation will be more than just temporary.\"\"We already have $500 billion in cash on our balance sheet. In fact, we have been effectively hoarding more and more cash, waiting for investment opportunities when interest rates rise. I do expect interest rates to rise, inflation to rise, and we are preparing for that.\" On Monday, James Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley, another Wall Street giant, also mentioned in an interview with the media that he expected the situation of rising inflation to last, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to rate hike earlier than expected.</p><p>\"The question is when the Fed will act. It will have to make a move at some point. I think it is more likely to be more inclined to come earlier than the current dot plot suggests, rather than later than that.\" A dot plot of interest rates updated after the Fed's meeting in March shows that most Fed officials expect to keep the current near-zero rate unchanged until late 2023. The statement of the Fed meeting in April acknowledged that COVID-19 vaccination drove the economy stronger, but believed that the inflation rose due to temporary factors, and pointed out that the industries hardest hit by the epidemic were still weak, reiterating the forward guidance of interest rates since September last year, allowing \"inflation to be moderately higher than 2% over a period of time, so that the average inflation over a period of time can reach 2%\".</p><p>However, since then, the core PCE price index of the United States in April reached the fastest year-on-year growth rate since 1992, and CPI and core CPI in May reached the fastest growth rate since 2008 and 1992 respectively. Last week, Bank of America warned that at a time when U.S. inflation hit new highs in April and May, as labor shortages and signs of inflation continue to emerge, the confidence of both the Federal Reserve and the market is becoming increasingly unconvincing, and the foundation for more sustained inflation in the future is being laid from this moment. \"History has shown that once inflation is higher, it can be difficult to contain without triggering a recession\".</p><p>JPMorgan Chase's second-quarter trading revenue may plummet 38%, lowering its net interest income forecast for this year</p><p>While warning that the Federal Reserve may advance the rate hike, Dimon also mentioned on Monday that the bank's trading revenue will drop significantly after the outbreak of last year's pandemic.</p><p>In the second quarter of this year, Dimon said, JPMorgan Chase's fixed income and stock trading revenue will be \"more normal,\" with trading revenue set to be just over $6 billion, lower than during the special period during the pandemic a year ago. This means that the bank's trading revenue will decrease by about 38% this quarter from the record $9.7 billion in the second quarter of last year, which is more than Wall Street consensus expectations. Even analysts' already-declining JPMorgan trading revenue estimates average $6.5 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.</p><p>Dimon said that the revenue of investment banking business in the second quarter is expected to increase by about 20% year-on-year, and the revenue of investment banking related to M&A advisory and stock and bond issuance in the quarter may be among the best in the history of the bank.</p><p>Dimon revealed that JPMorgan expects net interest income of $52.5 billion this year, down from the previous estimate of $55 billion. \"I know it's a little disappointing,\" he said.</p><p>After Dimon's remarks, JPMorgan shares accelerated their intraday decline, falling more than 2.2% at one point before finishing down 1.7%. The five largest U.S. bank stocks all fell on Monday, with JPMorgan Chase leading the loser.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/935b6edc71fb0a29bda0608c03e31add\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/493694.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/493694.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1193820370","content_text":"作者：李丹\n虽然没有明确预测美联储可能何时撤除宽松，但美国资产规模最大的银行摩根大通已经在“囤积弹药”，准备在美联储比预期更早加息时大举扫货。\n美东时间6月14日周一，摩根大通CEO戴蒙在线上会议中表示，由于未来通胀上行可能迫使美联储加息，摩根大通已经在“有效地囤积”现金，而不是用这些资金买入美国国债和其他投资品。这样的做法是为了在加息时能买入收益升高的资产。戴蒙说：\n\n “我们有大笔现金，也很有能力，我们会非常有耐心。因为我想，很有可能通胀将不仅仅是暂时的。”“我们的资产负债表里已经有5000亿美元现金。实际上，我们一直在有效地囤积越来越多的现金，等待利率走高时出现的投资机会。我的确预计利率会升高，通胀会增加，我们在为此做准备。”\n\n同在周一，另一华尔街巨头摩根士丹利的CEO James Gorman接受媒体采访时也提到，他预计通胀升高的形势可能持久，美联储可能被迫比预期更早加息。\n\n “问题是美联储何时行动。它不得不在某个时候出手。我认为，更倾向于比当前点阵图暗示的（时间）来得更早，而不是来得比那还迟，这种可能性大。”\n\n今年3月美联储会后更新的利率点阵图显示，联储大多数官员预计，直到2023年末，都将保持目前的近零利率不变。4月的美联储会议声明承认新冠疫苗接种推动经济走强，但认为通胀上升时源于暂时的因素，并且指出最受疫情打击的行业还疲软，重申了去年9月以来的利率前瞻指引，容许“在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%”。\n但此后公布的美国4月核心PCE物价指数创1992年来最快同比增速，5月CPI和核心CPI分别创2008年和1992年来最快增速。上周美国银行警告，在美国4月、5月通胀连续创出新高之际，随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，美联储和市场的自信都在变得越来越令人难以信服，未来更持续的通胀正从此刻开始打下基础。“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。\n摩根大通二季度交易收入恐剧减38% 下调今年净利息收入预期\n警告美联储可能提前加息的同时，戴蒙本周一还提到该行的交易收入在经历去年疫情的大爆发后会明显下降。\n戴蒙说，今年二季度，摩根大通的固定收益和股票交易收入将“更为正常”，交易收入将略高于60亿美元，比一年前疫情期间的特殊时期要低。这意味着，本季度该行交易收入将较去年二季度创纪录的97亿美元减少约38%，降幅超过华尔街共识预期。彭博调查显示，即使是分析师已经下降的摩根大通交易收入预期均值也有65亿美元。\n戴蒙称，二季度投资银行业务的收入将有望同比增长约20%，当季并购顾问和股债发行相关投行收入可能在该行史上名列前茅。\n戴蒙透露，摩根大通预计今年的净利息收入为525亿美元，低于此前预计的550亿美元。他说：“我知道有点令人失望。”\n戴蒙讲话后，摩根大通股价盘中加速下跌，跌幅一度超过2.2%，最终收跌1.7%。美国五大银行股周一当日齐跌，摩根大通跌幅居前。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115438349,"gmtCreate":1623026307981,"gmtModify":1704194457201,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115438349","repostId":"1183379079","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183379079","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1623023379,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183379079?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 07:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Naixue's listing does not bleed: what does it rely on to turn losses into profits?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183379079","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"随着聆讯通过，奈雪的茶终于安心坐上“全球茶饮第一股”的宝座。\n2月11日，奈雪的茶（以下简称“奈雪”）向港交所提交招股书，正式启动IPO。6月6日，港交所信息显示，奈雪已通过港交所上市聆讯，并披露聆讯","content":"<p>With the hearing passed, Naixue's tea finally sat on the throne of \"the first tea drink in the world\" with peace of mind.</p><p>On February 11th, Naixue's Tea (hereinafter referred to as \"Naixue\") submitted a prospectus to HKEx and officially launched its IPO. On June 6th, the information of HKEx showed that Naixue had passed the listing hearing of HKEx and disclosed the post-hearing data set.</p><p>According to the prospectus, since December 2017, Naixue began to go out of Guangdong and expand nationwide. As of the Latest Practicable Date, Nayuki had opened more than 556 directly operated stores in more than 70 cities in China and Osaka. According to CIC, as of December 31, 2020, Naixue had the widest network of high-end freshly made teahouses in China in terms of the number of cities covered.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>Naixue's adjusted net profit in 2020 reached 62.17 million, turning losses into profits.</b>Out of adherence to high standards and high quality, Naixue has been adhering to the direct operation mode since its establishment in 2015. But under the asset-heavy model, what is the secret of Nayuki's profitability? How did Nai Xue stand out in the new tea drinking track with serious homogenization and successfully steal the \"first tea drinking stock in the world\"?</p><p><b>In the headwind situation, what does Naixue rely on to make a profit?</b></p><p>According to the prospectus, under non-GAAP, Naixue's net loss has been significantly reduced from 56.58 million yuan in 2018 to 11.74 million yuan in 2019; In 2020, Naixue turned losses into profits, with a net profit of 16.64 million yuan. (Non-GAAP is the company's own adjustment on the basis of GAAP standards according to its own situation. Generally, many non-business-related and occasional profits and losses are eliminated, in order to better show the company's actual operating conditions). Using IAS 17, which more accurately reflects the actual rental level of the company, Nayuki achieved a net profit of 62.17 million in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6df5b87b3bfdae3f3bab562bd557cf2\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>Under the asset-heavy model, what is the secret of Naixue's turnaround?</p><p>We analyze from the revenue side and the cost side.</p><p>First of all,<b>The revenue scale of Naixue continues to expand, the scale effect gradually appears, and the marginal cost is reduced.</b></p><p>In 2020, Nayuki achieved<b>Operating income amounted to RMB3.057 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.2%.</b>Nayuki achieved steady growth in operating income despite the pandemic, which was mainly due to the rapid expansion of offline stores and the strong growth of online business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6be8d4f2bf45172663635876f1dbac1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>First, with the blessing of capital, Naixue stores expanded at a high speed, from 155 in 2018, 327 in 2019 to 491 in 2020; Second, benefiting from the early layout of digitalization, the explosive growth of Nayuki's online revenue drove the overall revenue growth. In 2020, Nayuki's online order revenue increased by 183% year-on-year to 2 billion yuan, accounting for 69.6% of the overall revenue, and is now the absolute revenue growth engine of Nayuki.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52b5e91ec32b86bb6d32500bbd718677\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>Secondly, the enhanced brand effect of Naixue has brought about the improvement of rent bargaining power, which has alleviated the pressure on the cost side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, Naixue's operating costs are mainly composed of raw materials, staff costs and depreciation of right-of-use assets, among which raw materials account for the highest proportion for three consecutive years, which is not the high rental cost widely rumored by the outside world.</p><p>The proportion of raw material costs of Nayuki in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was<b>35.3%、36.6%、37.9%</b>And much higher than the industry level. However, out of adherence to high quality, Peng Xin, founder of Naixue, has repeatedly said that he will not reduce the input of raw materials. But it comes at the expense of high costs.</p><p>However, as the head brand effect increased, Nayuki<b>The bargaining power of rental has gradually improved, the advantage of rental cost has been highlighted, and the pressure on cost side has been alleviated.</b>From 2018 to 2020, the aggregate proportion of depreciation of right-of-use assets and other rental and related expenses of Naixue was 17.8%, 15.6% and 14.8%, respectively, showing a decreasing trend year by year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7cec16721d7bbd12a26370971ae060\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p><b>Why has Naixue become the darling of capital?</b></p><p>Naixue has been receiving capital support all the way, which is a popular target of capital chase: so far, Naixue has received five rounds of financing. Investors include Tiantu Investment, Shenzhen Venture Capital (SCGC), HLC, PAGAC, etc., raising a total of 592 million yuan and 110 million USD.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9231120a9511d11f45d7717c386b51d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source: Western Securities</p><p>In 2018, after completing the A + round of financing, Naixue became the first unicorn in the new tea industry with a valuation of 6 billion.</p><p>Capital helped Naixue's store network to expand rapidly and steal the \"first tea drink in the world\". However, there is no shortage of players in the new tea track. Why can Naixue stand out and become the \"darling\" of the capital market?</p><p>In addition to the capital market's favor for head brands, there is also<b>Nayuki has strong supply chain and digital capabilities.</b></p><p>First of all, Nayuki built<b>Supply chain builds core barriers.</b></p><p>Nayuki insists on deeply cultivating the supply chain, first for<b>Ensuring the stability of expected supply</b>To provide consumers with high-quality and stable products and services. Second, it originated from Nayuki<b>Persistence in high-quality raw materials</b>And practice the brand vision of \"becoming an innovator and promoter of tea culture going global\" with practical actions.</p><p>Take Nayuki's classic product domineering cheese strawberry as an example. Strawberry, as a seasonal fruit, could not be supplied all year round. Nayuki has built an exclusive strawberry garden in Yunnan, which can not only realize the supply of strawberries all year round, but also control the quality of food ingredients from the source, which has made Nayuki the top seller that can be bought all year round.</p><p>Furthermore, innovating is the key to remaining competitive in a homogenized track. According to the prospectus, during the performance period, Naixue launched one new drink every week on average, accelerating product innovation and iteration. Today, Nayuki's core menu has more than 25 classic tea drinks and more than 25 baked products.</p><p>On March 23rd, Naixue once again launched the explosive product-domineering jade oil tangerine. After the listing of domineering jade orange, the sales volume of tea products accounted for as much as 25%, surpassing the domineering cheese strawberry, which dominated the sales volume all the year round. The reason why Naixue can create explosive products from this niche fresh fruit of jade oil tangerine is inseparable from its stable supply chain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fdcbef4762901f5c2347a2ccf38465d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, the digitalization of Naixue's long-term investment in construction is conducive to improving operational efficiency and anti-cycle ability.</p><p>On the one hand,<b>The digital empowerment of store operation has greatly improved the operational efficiency of Naixue and released a large profit margin.</b>At present, Naixue's systems are all self-developed by the IT team, and store management, ordering and scheduling have been automated, which greatly reduces the difficulty of store operation and greatly improves the human efficiency of production.</p><p>In its prospectus, Naixue disclosed its self-developed integrated information platform Teacore, which provides business decisions by integrating and processing a large amount of operational data accumulated in various systems in operation, and achieves the result of improving overall operational efficiency. It is understood that Teacore also integrates online and offline transaction information at the same time. With the continuous expansion of the database, it can realize accurate analysis of customer preferences and consumption scenarios, and its help to sales and marketing will become more and more obvious.</p><p>On the other hand,<b>The rapid growth of online business empowered by digitalization has enhanced the operational stability and risk resistance of Naixue.</b>At the end of 2019, Naixue began to build a rich membership system, forming a closed loop of the whole membership system through many functions such as membership points, shopping malls, coupon packages, electronic heart cards and billing, enhancing the stickiness and frequency of members' consumption and enhancing consumer brand loyalty. As of May 2021, Nayuki membership grew to 35 million from 9.3 million as of December 31, 2019, and approximately 49.0% of total Nayuki orders in 2020 came from members.</p><p>It is precisely because of the early layout of digitalization that Naixue can quickly recover blood after experiencing the impact of the epidemic. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, Nayuki's online revenue accounted for 7.5%, 30.8% and 69.6%, respectively, and the strong growth of online revenue greatly cushioned the impact of the pandemic on offline business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270bf0c176ad9d252c712ff409460cf2\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>Benefiting from its strong supply chain and digital capabilities, Naixue was able to stand out in the homogenization track and successfully seize the position of \"the first stock of new tea drinks\". The funds raised by Naixue's listing in Hong Kong are also used to enhance the supply chain and channel construction capability, support the expansion of teahouse network and increase market penetration, and improve operational efficiency by enhancing the digitalization of overall operation.</p><p>But this is only the starting point, not the end.</p><p><b>What's next?</b></p><p>At present, Naixue, as the \"first tea drink in the world\", has prominent scarcity, can better seize the market opportunity, and may perform well in the capital market. However, if Naixue wants to gain long-term recognition from the capital market, it needs to further enhance its growth and profitability and build more stable fundamentals.</p><p><b>The rapid expansion of stores is not only the main driving force of Nayuki's performance growth, but also conducive to enhancing brand influence.</b></p><p>PRO Store is the main force of Nayuki's future store expansion. Naixue plans to expand 650 stores in the past two years, about 70% of which are Naixue PRO stores.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3e4f0700029670a91e05945af033e4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In November 2020, Nayuki debuted its PRO store, which is the fifth store type after Nayuki's Tea, \"Nayuki's Gift\" store, Nayuki Wine House BlaBlaBar and Nayuki DreamWorks. PRO Store expands its tea stores to areas with previously low penetration rates, such as office buildings and high-density residential communities, to meet the diverse consumption habits and preferences of customers. As of May 2021, Nayuki has a total of 60 PRO stores in 26 cities across the country.</p><p><b>PRO stores leverage digitalization and intelligence, and operate more efficiently.</b>Due to the removal of the on-site bakery area in the PRO store, on the one hand, the sales of pre-made bakery products were increased, which were made in advance by the central kitchen; On the other hand, the production process of European bags was updated, and the store process was simplified by pre-manufacturing in the central kitchen and reprocessing in the store. Therefore, compared with other stores, PRO stores are smaller in area, only 80-200 square meters, and office buildings and residential communities replace large shopping malls in site selection. This is beneficial to improve the efficiency of store operation.</p><p>In addition, Nayuki has increased its investment in self-developed automation and intelligent equipment to save store costs, improve operating efficiency and further enhance its overall profitability. According to the relevant person in charge of Naixue, PRO Store will achieve 80% digitalization in the future. While reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the user experience will be further upgraded.</p><p>Therefore, the smooth expansion of PRO stores will not only help Naixue quickly seize the market, enhance brand influence, but also help improve profitability.</p><p>While doing himself well, Naixue is also actively involved in the promotion of the development of the industry. On May 21, 2021, Naixue joined hands with authoritative organizations to release the \"Group Standards for Tea Beverages Series\" to promote the establishment of new tea beverage industry standards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd0974476cff9a5e5fbbbf49a391ce5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Prior to this, there was no specific national standard for caffeine and sugar content in the tea industry. Local consumer associations can only comprehensively refer to GB 2760-2014 \"National Food Safety Standard for the Use of Food Additives\", GB/T 21733-2008 \"Tea Beverage\" and other relevant regulations in tea drink testing. The new tea drinks themselves are made of diverse materials, and the labels of \"no sugar\" and \"less sugar\" are not applicable to the basic norms of \"tea drinks\".</p><p>Against this background, Naixue can shoulder the responsibility of leading enterprises in the industry and take the lead in formulating detailed standards for new tea products. The first batch of new tea product standards were formulated, including five categories: freshly made milk tea, freshly made milk cap tea, freshly made fruit tea, freshly made bubble tea and freshly refrigerated cold brew tea. The release of this standard marks that new tea drinks bid farewell to \"non-standard\" and enter a new stage of more standardized and healthier.</p><p>Similarly, as the pioneer of the tea industry in the secondary market, Naixue's IPO will also have a far-reaching impact on the whole new tea industry. At present, Naixue does not have a very clear benchmark brand in the global capital market, and HKEx, CSRC and related institutions are relatively unfamiliar with the new tea beverage industry. As the first industry leader brand to stand in the spotlight, Naixue is also defining the whole new tea beverage industry in its listing process.</p><p>According to data from the China Tea Circulation Association, China's output in 2019 was about 2.8 million tons, accounting for about 47% of the world's total. The sales scale of China's domestic market was 2.02 million tons, while exports were only 366,500 tons, accounting for 13.1%. Although China's tea planting area accounts for about 60% of the world, it is the largest in the world, but the largest sales of global tea brands is Lipton tea bags from Unilever of Europe. It can be seen that Chinese tea brands have insufficient influence in the international market.</p><p>Peng Xin once said in an interview with People's Daily Online and CCTV that \"tea, as one of China's most representative products and cultures, has the opportunity to export a global brand under the background of China's rise.\"<b>As the high-end benchmark of new tea drinks, Naixue successfully landed in the capital market this time, which may be the best opportunity for Chinese tea to go global.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Naixue's listing does not bleed: what does it rely on to turn losses into profits?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNaixue's listing does not bleed: what does it rely on to turn losses into profits?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 07:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the hearing passed, Naixue's tea finally sat on the throne of \"the first tea drink in the world\" with peace of mind.</p><p>On February 11th, Naixue's Tea (hereinafter referred to as \"Naixue\") submitted a prospectus to HKEx and officially launched its IPO. On June 6th, the information of HKEx showed that Naixue had passed the listing hearing of HKEx and disclosed the post-hearing data set.</p><p>According to the prospectus, since December 2017, Naixue began to go out of Guangdong and expand nationwide. As of the Latest Practicable Date, Nayuki had opened more than 556 directly operated stores in more than 70 cities in China and Osaka. According to CIC, as of December 31, 2020, Naixue had the widest network of high-end freshly made teahouses in China in terms of the number of cities covered.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>Naixue's adjusted net profit in 2020 reached 62.17 million, turning losses into profits.</b>Out of adherence to high standards and high quality, Naixue has been adhering to the direct operation mode since its establishment in 2015. But under the asset-heavy model, what is the secret of Nayuki's profitability? How did Nai Xue stand out in the new tea drinking track with serious homogenization and successfully steal the \"first tea drinking stock in the world\"?</p><p><b>In the headwind situation, what does Naixue rely on to make a profit?</b></p><p>According to the prospectus, under non-GAAP, Naixue's net loss has been significantly reduced from 56.58 million yuan in 2018 to 11.74 million yuan in 2019; In 2020, Naixue turned losses into profits, with a net profit of 16.64 million yuan. (Non-GAAP is the company's own adjustment on the basis of GAAP standards according to its own situation. Generally, many non-business-related and occasional profits and losses are eliminated, in order to better show the company's actual operating conditions). Using IAS 17, which more accurately reflects the actual rental level of the company, Nayuki achieved a net profit of 62.17 million in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6df5b87b3bfdae3f3bab562bd557cf2\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>Under the asset-heavy model, what is the secret of Naixue's turnaround?</p><p>We analyze from the revenue side and the cost side.</p><p>First of all,<b>The revenue scale of Naixue continues to expand, the scale effect gradually appears, and the marginal cost is reduced.</b></p><p>In 2020, Nayuki achieved<b>Operating income amounted to RMB3.057 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.2%.</b>Nayuki achieved steady growth in operating income despite the pandemic, which was mainly due to the rapid expansion of offline stores and the strong growth of online business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6be8d4f2bf45172663635876f1dbac1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>First, with the blessing of capital, Naixue stores expanded at a high speed, from 155 in 2018, 327 in 2019 to 491 in 2020; Second, benefiting from the early layout of digitalization, the explosive growth of Nayuki's online revenue drove the overall revenue growth. In 2020, Nayuki's online order revenue increased by 183% year-on-year to 2 billion yuan, accounting for 69.6% of the overall revenue, and is now the absolute revenue growth engine of Nayuki.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52b5e91ec32b86bb6d32500bbd718677\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>Secondly, the enhanced brand effect of Naixue has brought about the improvement of rent bargaining power, which has alleviated the pressure on the cost side.</p><p>According to the prospectus, Naixue's operating costs are mainly composed of raw materials, staff costs and depreciation of right-of-use assets, among which raw materials account for the highest proportion for three consecutive years, which is not the high rental cost widely rumored by the outside world.</p><p>The proportion of raw material costs of Nayuki in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was<b>35.3%、36.6%、37.9%</b>And much higher than the industry level. However, out of adherence to high quality, Peng Xin, founder of Naixue, has repeatedly said that he will not reduce the input of raw materials. But it comes at the expense of high costs.</p><p>However, as the head brand effect increased, Nayuki<b>The bargaining power of rental has gradually improved, the advantage of rental cost has been highlighted, and the pressure on cost side has been alleviated.</b>From 2018 to 2020, the aggregate proportion of depreciation of right-of-use assets and other rental and related expenses of Naixue was 17.8%, 15.6% and 14.8%, respectively, showing a decreasing trend year by year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7cec16721d7bbd12a26370971ae060\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p><b>Why has Naixue become the darling of capital?</b></p><p>Naixue has been receiving capital support all the way, which is a popular target of capital chase: so far, Naixue has received five rounds of financing. Investors include Tiantu Investment, Shenzhen Venture Capital (SCGC), HLC, PAGAC, etc., raising a total of 592 million yuan and 110 million USD.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9231120a9511d11f45d7717c386b51d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source: Western Securities</p><p>In 2018, after completing the A + round of financing, Naixue became the first unicorn in the new tea industry with a valuation of 6 billion.</p><p>Capital helped Naixue's store network to expand rapidly and steal the \"first tea drink in the world\". However, there is no shortage of players in the new tea track. Why can Naixue stand out and become the \"darling\" of the capital market?</p><p>In addition to the capital market's favor for head brands, there is also<b>Nayuki has strong supply chain and digital capabilities.</b></p><p>First of all, Nayuki built<b>Supply chain builds core barriers.</b></p><p>Nayuki insists on deeply cultivating the supply chain, first for<b>Ensuring the stability of expected supply</b>To provide consumers with high-quality and stable products and services. Second, it originated from Nayuki<b>Persistence in high-quality raw materials</b>And practice the brand vision of \"becoming an innovator and promoter of tea culture going global\" with practical actions.</p><p>Take Nayuki's classic product domineering cheese strawberry as an example. Strawberry, as a seasonal fruit, could not be supplied all year round. Nayuki has built an exclusive strawberry garden in Yunnan, which can not only realize the supply of strawberries all year round, but also control the quality of food ingredients from the source, which has made Nayuki the top seller that can be bought all year round.</p><p>Furthermore, innovating is the key to remaining competitive in a homogenized track. According to the prospectus, during the performance period, Naixue launched one new drink every week on average, accelerating product innovation and iteration. Today, Nayuki's core menu has more than 25 classic tea drinks and more than 25 baked products.</p><p>On March 23rd, Naixue once again launched the explosive product-domineering jade oil tangerine. After the listing of domineering jade orange, the sales volume of tea products accounted for as much as 25%, surpassing the domineering cheese strawberry, which dominated the sales volume all the year round. The reason why Naixue can create explosive products from this niche fresh fruit of jade oil tangerine is inseparable from its stable supply chain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fdcbef4762901f5c2347a2ccf38465d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, the digitalization of Naixue's long-term investment in construction is conducive to improving operational efficiency and anti-cycle ability.</p><p>On the one hand,<b>The digital empowerment of store operation has greatly improved the operational efficiency of Naixue and released a large profit margin.</b>At present, Naixue's systems are all self-developed by the IT team, and store management, ordering and scheduling have been automated, which greatly reduces the difficulty of store operation and greatly improves the human efficiency of production.</p><p>In its prospectus, Naixue disclosed its self-developed integrated information platform Teacore, which provides business decisions by integrating and processing a large amount of operational data accumulated in various systems in operation, and achieves the result of improving overall operational efficiency. It is understood that Teacore also integrates online and offline transaction information at the same time. With the continuous expansion of the database, it can realize accurate analysis of customer preferences and consumption scenarios, and its help to sales and marketing will become more and more obvious.</p><p>On the other hand,<b>The rapid growth of online business empowered by digitalization has enhanced the operational stability and risk resistance of Naixue.</b>At the end of 2019, Naixue began to build a rich membership system, forming a closed loop of the whole membership system through many functions such as membership points, shopping malls, coupon packages, electronic heart cards and billing, enhancing the stickiness and frequency of members' consumption and enhancing consumer brand loyalty. As of May 2021, Nayuki membership grew to 35 million from 9.3 million as of December 31, 2019, and approximately 49.0% of total Nayuki orders in 2020 came from members.</p><p>It is precisely because of the early layout of digitalization that Naixue can quickly recover blood after experiencing the impact of the epidemic. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, Nayuki's online revenue accounted for 7.5%, 30.8% and 69.6%, respectively, and the strong growth of online revenue greatly cushioned the impact of the pandemic on offline business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270bf0c176ad9d252c712ff409460cf2\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Credit: Nayuki's Tea Prospectus</p><p>Benefiting from its strong supply chain and digital capabilities, Naixue was able to stand out in the homogenization track and successfully seize the position of \"the first stock of new tea drinks\". The funds raised by Naixue's listing in Hong Kong are also used to enhance the supply chain and channel construction capability, support the expansion of teahouse network and increase market penetration, and improve operational efficiency by enhancing the digitalization of overall operation.</p><p>But this is only the starting point, not the end.</p><p><b>What's next?</b></p><p>At present, Naixue, as the \"first tea drink in the world\", has prominent scarcity, can better seize the market opportunity, and may perform well in the capital market. However, if Naixue wants to gain long-term recognition from the capital market, it needs to further enhance its growth and profitability and build more stable fundamentals.</p><p><b>The rapid expansion of stores is not only the main driving force of Nayuki's performance growth, but also conducive to enhancing brand influence.</b></p><p>PRO Store is the main force of Nayuki's future store expansion. Naixue plans to expand 650 stores in the past two years, about 70% of which are Naixue PRO stores.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3e4f0700029670a91e05945af033e4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In November 2020, Nayuki debuted its PRO store, which is the fifth store type after Nayuki's Tea, \"Nayuki's Gift\" store, Nayuki Wine House BlaBlaBar and Nayuki DreamWorks. PRO Store expands its tea stores to areas with previously low penetration rates, such as office buildings and high-density residential communities, to meet the diverse consumption habits and preferences of customers. As of May 2021, Nayuki has a total of 60 PRO stores in 26 cities across the country.</p><p><b>PRO stores leverage digitalization and intelligence, and operate more efficiently.</b>Due to the removal of the on-site bakery area in the PRO store, on the one hand, the sales of pre-made bakery products were increased, which were made in advance by the central kitchen; On the other hand, the production process of European bags was updated, and the store process was simplified by pre-manufacturing in the central kitchen and reprocessing in the store. Therefore, compared with other stores, PRO stores are smaller in area, only 80-200 square meters, and office buildings and residential communities replace large shopping malls in site selection. This is beneficial to improve the efficiency of store operation.</p><p>In addition, Nayuki has increased its investment in self-developed automation and intelligent equipment to save store costs, improve operating efficiency and further enhance its overall profitability. According to the relevant person in charge of Naixue, PRO Store will achieve 80% digitalization in the future. While reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the user experience will be further upgraded.</p><p>Therefore, the smooth expansion of PRO stores will not only help Naixue quickly seize the market, enhance brand influence, but also help improve profitability.</p><p>While doing himself well, Naixue is also actively involved in the promotion of the development of the industry. On May 21, 2021, Naixue joined hands with authoritative organizations to release the \"Group Standards for Tea Beverages Series\" to promote the establishment of new tea beverage industry standards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd0974476cff9a5e5fbbbf49a391ce5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Prior to this, there was no specific national standard for caffeine and sugar content in the tea industry. Local consumer associations can only comprehensively refer to GB 2760-2014 \"National Food Safety Standard for the Use of Food Additives\", GB/T 21733-2008 \"Tea Beverage\" and other relevant regulations in tea drink testing. The new tea drinks themselves are made of diverse materials, and the labels of \"no sugar\" and \"less sugar\" are not applicable to the basic norms of \"tea drinks\".</p><p>Against this background, Naixue can shoulder the responsibility of leading enterprises in the industry and take the lead in formulating detailed standards for new tea products. The first batch of new tea product standards were formulated, including five categories: freshly made milk tea, freshly made milk cap tea, freshly made fruit tea, freshly made bubble tea and freshly refrigerated cold brew tea. The release of this standard marks that new tea drinks bid farewell to \"non-standard\" and enter a new stage of more standardized and healthier.</p><p>Similarly, as the pioneer of the tea industry in the secondary market, Naixue's IPO will also have a far-reaching impact on the whole new tea industry. At present, Naixue does not have a very clear benchmark brand in the global capital market, and HKEx, CSRC and related institutions are relatively unfamiliar with the new tea beverage industry. As the first industry leader brand to stand in the spotlight, Naixue is also defining the whole new tea beverage industry in its listing process.</p><p>According to data from the China Tea Circulation Association, China's output in 2019 was about 2.8 million tons, accounting for about 47% of the world's total. The sales scale of China's domestic market was 2.02 million tons, while exports were only 366,500 tons, accounting for 13.1%. Although China's tea planting area accounts for about 60% of the world, it is the largest in the world, but the largest sales of global tea brands is Lipton tea bags from Unilever of Europe. It can be seen that Chinese tea brands have insufficient influence in the international market.</p><p>Peng Xin once said in an interview with People's Daily Online and CCTV that \"tea, as one of China's most representative products and cultures, has the opportunity to export a global brand under the background of China's rise.\"<b>As the high-end benchmark of new tea drinks, Naixue successfully landed in the capital market this time, which may be the best opportunity for Chinese tea to go global.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7f85f57e71a46ee434f98fa705e9804","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183379079","content_text":"随着聆讯通过，奈雪的茶终于安心坐上“全球茶饮第一股”的宝座。\n2月11日，奈雪的茶（以下简称“奈雪”）向港交所提交招股书，正式启动IPO。6月6日，港交所信息显示，奈雪已通过港交所上市聆讯，并披露聆讯后资料集。\n招股书显示，从2017年12月起，奈雪开始走出广东地区，向全国范围内扩张。截至最后实际可行日期，奈雪在国内70多个城市以及日本大阪开出556多家直营门店。根据灼识咨询数据，截至2020年12月31日，按覆盖的城市数目计算，奈雪拥有覆盖中国最广泛的高端现制茶饮店网络。\n值得注意的是，奈雪2020年经调整后净利润达6217万，扭亏为盈。出于对高标准和高品质的坚守，自2015成立以来，奈雪就一直坚持直营模式。但重资产模式之下，奈雪实现盈利的秘诀是什么？奈雪又是如何在同质化严重的新茶饮赛道脱颖而出，成功抢跑“全球茶饮第一股”？\n逆风局中，奈雪盈利靠什么？\n招股书显示，非通用会计准则下，奈雪净亏损已从2018年的5658万元大幅减少至2019年的1174万元；而在2020年，奈雪更是扭亏为盈，净利润为1664万元。（非通用会计准则是公司依据自身情况在通用会计准则标准的基础上自行调整，一般是将很多非经营相关、以及偶然发生的损益进行剔除，目的是更好地展示公司的实际经营状况）。如使用更准确地反映公司实际租金水平的国际会计准则第17号，奈雪2020年全年实现净利润6217万。\n\n图片来源：奈雪的茶招股书\n重资产模式之下，奈雪扭亏为盈的秘诀是什么？\n我们从收入端和成本端进行分析。\n首先，奈雪的营收规模持续扩大，规模效应逐渐显现，边际成本得以降低。\n2020年，奈雪实现营业收入30.57亿元，同比增长22.2%。奈雪在疫情下仍然实现营业收入稳定增长，这主要得益于线下门店迅速扩张和线上业务强劲增长。\n\n图片来源：奈雪的茶招股书\n一是在资本加持下，奈雪门店高速扩张，从2018年的155家、2019年的327家扩大至2020年的491家；二是受益于数字化的提早布局，奈雪线上收入爆发增长拉动整体收入增长。2020年，奈雪线上订单收入同比增长183%至20亿元，占整体收入的69.6%，目前成为奈雪绝对的收入增长引擎。\n\n图片来源：奈雪的茶招股书\n其次，奈雪品牌效应增强带来租金议价能力提升，缓解了成本端压力。\n根据招股书，奈雪的营业成本构成主要是原材料、员工成本和使用权资产折旧，其中原材料连续三年占比最高，并非外界盛传的租金成本高。\n奈雪的原材料成本占比在2018年、2019年和2020年依次为35.3%、36.6%、37.9%，且远高于行业水平。但出于对高品质的坚守，奈雪创始人彭心多次表示不会降低原材料投入。但背后是以高成本为代价的。\n不过，随着头部品牌效应增强，奈雪在租金方面的议价能力逐渐提升，租金成本优势凸显，成本端压力得到缓解。2018年至2020年，奈雪使用权资产折旧项与其他租金及相关开支合计占比依次为17.8%、15.6%和14.8%，呈现逐年降低的趋势。\n\n图片来源：奈雪的茶招股书\n为何奈雪成为资本的宠儿？\n奈雪一路走来不断获得资本支持，是资本追逐的热门标的：迄今为止，奈雪获得5轮融资。投资方包括天图投资、深圳创投（SCGC）、HLC、太盟投资（PAGAC）等，共募集资金5.92亿元人民币以及1.1亿美元。\n\n图表来源：西部证券\n2018年，奈雪完成A+轮融资后，以60亿估值成为新式茶饮行业首个独角兽。\n资本助力奈雪门店网络迅速扩张，抢跑“全球茶饮第一股”。不过，新茶饮赛道并不缺玩家，为何奈雪能够脱颖而出，成为资本市场的“宠儿”？\n除了资本市场对头部品牌青睐，还有就是奈雪具备强大的供应链和数字化能力。\n首先，奈雪通过打造供应链构筑核心壁垒。\n奈雪坚持深耕供应链，一是为了保证预料供应的稳定性，为消费者提供优质稳定的产品和服务。二是源于奈雪对优质原材料的坚持，以实际行动践行“成为茶文化走向世界的创新者和推动者”的品牌愿景。\n以奈雪经典产品霸气芝士草莓为例，草莓作为季节性水果原本是无法全年供应的。奈雪便在云南打造了专属的草莓园，这既能实现全年无休的草莓供应，也能从源头把控食材品质，这才成就了一年四季都能买到的奈雪销冠。\n此外，推陈出新是同质化赛道中保持竞争力的关键。根据招股书，业绩期内，奈雪平均每周推出一款新饮品，产品加速创新和迭代。时至今日，奈雪核心菜单已经拥有超过25种经典茶饮及超过25种烘焙产品。\n3月23日，奈雪再次推出爆款产品——霸气玉油柑。霸气玉油柑上市后在茶饮产品中的销量占比最高达到25％，超越常年制霸销量榜首的霸气芝士草莓。奈雪之所以能把玉油柑这种小众鲜果创造出爆品，这离不开其稳定的供应链。\n\n其次，奈雪长期投入建设的数字化，有利于提升运营效率和抗周期能力。\n一方面，数字化赋能门店运营，极大地提高了奈雪的运营效率，释放出较大的利润空间。目前，奈雪的系统都是由IT团队自研，门店管理、订货、排班都已实现自动化，大幅度降低了门店运营的难度，对生产的人效有极大提升。\n奈雪在招股书中披露了其自研的集成信息平台Teacore，通过整合和处理在运营中各个系统中积累的大量运营数据，提供业务决策，达到提升整体运营效率的结果。据了解，Teacore也同时整合了线上下的交易信息，而随着数据库的不断扩大，能够实现对顾客喜好和消费场景的精准分析，对销售和营销的助力也将愈发明显。\n另一方面，数字化赋能线上业务迅速增长，增强了奈雪的经营稳定性和抗风险能力。2019年底，奈雪开始搭建丰富的会员体系，通过会员积分、商城、券包、电子心意卡、拼单等多项功能让整个会员体系形成闭环，提升会员消费黏性和频次，增强消费者品牌忠诚度。截至2021年5月，奈雪会员从截至2019年12月31日的930万增长至3500万，2020年奈雪订单总数中约49.0%来自会员。\n也正是因为及早布局数字化，奈雪在经历疫情冲击后才能迅速回血。2018年、2019年及2020年，奈雪线上收入占比分别为7.5%、30.8%及69.6%，线上收入的强劲增长极大程度地缓冲了疫情对线下业务的冲击。\n\n 图片来源：奈雪的茶招股书\n受益于强大的供应链和数字化能力，奈雪得以在同质化赛道中脱颖而出，成功抢占“新茶饮第一股”地位。奈雪本次赴港上市募集的资金，也是用于提升供应链及渠道建设能力，支持茶饮店网络扩张并提高市场渗透率，以及通过增强整体运营的数字化，提升运营效率等。\n但这只是起点，并不是终局。\n下一步怎么走？\n目前，奈雪作为“全球茶饮第一股”，稀缺性凸显，能更好地抢占市场先机，在资本市场或许会有不俗的表现。但是，奈雪若想获得资本市场的长久认可，需要进一步提升成长和盈利能力，打造更加稳健的基本面。\n门店迅速扩张不仅是奈雪业绩增长的主要驱动力，也有利于提升品牌影响力。\nPRO店是奈雪未来门店扩张的主力。奈雪计划近两年拓店650家，其中约70%为奈雪PRO店。\n\n2020年11月，奈雪首次推出PRO店，这是继奈雪的茶、“奈雪的礼物”店、奈雪酒屋BlaBlaBar及奈雪梦工厂后的第五种店型。PRO店将茶饮门店拓展至之前渗透率较低的区域（如办公楼和高密度住宅社区），以满足顾客的多样化消费习惯和偏好。截止2021年5月，奈雪在全国26个城市共有60家PRO店。\nPRO店利用数字化智能化，运营效率更高。由于PRO店移除现场面包房区域，一方面增加销售预制烘焙产品，由中央厨房提前制作；另一方面更新欧包制作流程，以中央厨房预制及门店再加工简化门店流程。因此，PRO店相比起其他店型面积更小，仅有80-200平方米，在选址上则以写字楼和住宅社区取代大型商场。这有利于提高门店运营效率。\n除此之外，奈雪通过加大自研自动化和智能化设备的投入来节约门店成本、提升经营效率，进一步提升整体盈利能力。据奈雪相关负责人表示，PRO店未来将实现80%的数字化，降本增效的同时，用户体验也将得到进一步升级。\n因此，PRO店的顺利拓展，既有利于奈雪迅速抢占市场，提升品牌影响力，助力盈利能力提升。\n在做好自己的同时，奈雪也积极投身于行业发展的推动。2021年5月21日，奈雪携手权威机构发布《茶类饮料系列团体标准》，推动新式茶饮行业标准的建立。\n\n在此之前，茶饮行业针对例如咖啡因、糖含量等并没有具体的国家标准。各地消协在茶饮测试中只能综合参考GB 2760-2014《国家食品安全标准 食品添加剂使用标准》、GB/T 21733-2008《茶饮料》等相关规定。新式茶饮本身制作材料较多元，标签的“无糖”、“少糖”等并不适用于《茶饮料》的基本规范。\n在此背景下，奈雪能够肩负起行业头部企业责任，牵头制订新式茶饮产品细化标准。首批新式茶饮产品类标准制定，包含现制奶茶、现制奶盖茶、现制水果茶、现制气泡茶和现制冷泡茶5类。该标准的发布标志着新式茶饮告别“非标”，迈入更规范更健康的新阶段。\n同样，作为茶饮行业在二级市场的先行者，奈雪IPO一事也将为整个新茶饮行业带来极为深远的影响。目前，奈雪在全球资本市场上没有一个非常明确的对标品牌，港交所、证监会及相关机构对新茶饮行业也相对不熟悉，奈雪作为首个站到聚光灯下的行业头部品牌，其上市过程也正定义着整个新茶饮的行业。\n中国茶叶流通协会数据显示，2019年中国的产量约280万吨，约占全球的47%。中国国内市场的销售规模有202万吨，而出口仅有36.65万吨，占比13.1%。虽然中国茶叶的种植面积约占全球的60%，是世界第一，但全球茶叶品牌销量排行第一的却是欧洲联合利华的立顿茶包。可见，中国茶饮品牌在国际市场上影响力不足。\n彭心曾在人民网和央视访谈中说过“茶作为中国最具代表性的产品和文化之一，在中国崛起的时代背景下是有机会能够输出一个全球品牌的。”而作为新茶饮中高端标杆的奈雪，此次成功登陆资本市场，或许就是中国茶走向世界的最好机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111526664,"gmtCreate":1622687673258,"gmtModify":1704188957085,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ?&nbsp;","listText":"Good ?&nbsp;","text":"Good ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111526664","repostId":"2140449283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140449283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622686502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2140449283?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: June or a key fork in the road, the main line of global assets or return to growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140449283","media":"中金点睛","summary":"6月或是关键岔路口：对未来政策预期和市场走向有重要影响\n回顾看，5月驱动全球资产定价的逻辑已经悄然出现一些变化。但展望6月，当前价格压力暂缓、流动性向好、利率回落、美元走弱推动市场特别是成长股领先的这","content":"<p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed. However, looking forward to June, the current price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially whether this combination of growth stocks leading the market can be sustained is a general worry in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</p><p><b>So, to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future</b>(The FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th).</p><p><b>Benchmark Judgment: Inflation Marginal Ease, Policy Holds On, Growth Becomes the Main Line Again</b></p><p>In the baseline case,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>After surviving the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month,<b>We expect the market focus to shift from prices in April and liquidity in May again to demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, a return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure.</p><p><b>Allocation strategy: Main line or return to growth from April price and May liquidity</b></p><p>From the configuration policy,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to expect to find direction and consensus</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by the rise in interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2) But if it goes through relatively smoothly as we expect,<b>The main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May, and equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window. However, the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited.</b></p><p><b>After inflation and liquidity, the main line may return to growth</b></p><p><b>— — Monthly Report on Overseas Asset Allocation (2021-6)</b></p><p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed.</b>The price pressure brought by the surge in commodities in April eased marginally with the loosening of the increase, which is consistent with our opinion in \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-5): Whether to sell in May?\" at the beginning of the month that the rise of broad-spectrum commodities is not steady, and that the follow-up performance of commodities should pay more attention to whether demand can take over rather than just supply-side premium in \"U.S. raw material inventories are close to historic highs\".<b>Marginal easing of price pressures, superimposed with a surge in dollar liquidity</b>(\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in Dollar Liquidity\"),<b>It not only promoted the downward trend of US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, but also further spilled over to other exchange rate appreciation and the outperformance of growth stocks.</b>in addition, the US stocks in May did not Sell in May that the market was worried about, but the US stocks still underperformed other major markets. Therefore, it is basically appropriate for us to slightly reduce the allocation ratio of US stocks at the beginning of the month and add it to emerging markets.</p><p><b>Chart: Price pressures from the April commodity surge have eased marginally as gains loosen</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35a357e56119369992540f35a5a53e6\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The Fed's recent use of reverse repurchases hit a record high, with reverse repurchases reaching $485.3 billion on May 27</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a35a7ee8847b13403facada770066cf7\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The three-month cross-swap of the euro, yen and pound with the dollar, which measure global dollar liquidity, also basically hit new lows since 2015</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a57b1727caf390252979ef0e6e2da86\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Looking forward to June, whether the current combination of price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially growth stocks leading, can be sustained is a general concern in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</b>Especially for such a heavy month as June (the FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th respectively).</p><p><b>So to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future:</b>If the employment and inflation pressures are obviously eased, and the Federal Reserve can continue its loose posture, then the market is expected to usher in a new round of breathing window, and the direct impact when the third quarter prompts the official reduction in the fourth quarter is also controllable; On the contrary, if inflation unexpectedly exceeds expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to take action, the market may usher in a new round of volatility. After all, it was obviously earlier than expected to prompt the start of reduction from June to July (Historical Experience and Enlightenment of QE Reduction). Therefore, compared with the so-called selling experience in May, which is actually unreliable from historical experience, if there is an accident, the potential fluctuation in June may be greater, and its impact on future policies and market trends may be greater, not only because of the extremely high correlation between stocks and bonds at present and the historically low correlation between Sino-American stock markets.</p><p><b>Chart: The current stock-bond correlation represented by the S&P 500 index and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has reached a historically high level…</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52141428681b28d3b055d5c20f3a2bbc\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: …while the current correlation between the Chinese and US stock markets handles historically relatively low levels</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d4d494b22ab1794ecb7d962cef64061\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Our benchmark judgment: Inflation marginally eases, policy stands still, growth becomes the main line again</b></p><p>Although there is a considerable possibility of surprises (the April data clearly tells us how big a bias in expectations may be at the inflection point, especially the nonlinear changes caused by the epidemic), under the baseline scenario,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>If this situation can occur, combined with the current loose liquidity state that may be maintained (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent US Dollar Liquidity Surge\"), it is expected to continue to provide a relatively good situation for equity assets and continue to support our positive view on US stocks.<b>After the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month, we expect that the market focus will shift from the price in April and the liquidity in May to the demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, it will return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure. Specifically,</p><p><b>► Growth: Offline consumption and travel demand are continuously recovering, and the number of travellers has reached a new high since the pandemic.</b>The continuous advancement of vaccination has made the opening process continue to advance. At present, 37 states in the United States have been opened, and we expect to enter a fully open state at the end of June and early July. Opening up on a wider scale means more travel and the release of offline service consumption demand, which has been clearly reflected in high-frequency indicators (for example, the number of airport TSA security trips on Memorial Day just past hit a new high since the epidemic), which in turn supports the stamina of demand in the third quarter, and may even mean the repair of the job market (we note that the unemployment rate repair in open and not fully open states is quite different).</p><p><b>Chart: Airport TSA security trips this past Memorial Day hit new high since the pandemic</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ce9d3f9ee3debfe47d14bdf4f206aa\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: At present, 37 states in the United States are fully open, and we expect to enter full opening by the end of June and early July</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6459563ed0ec3d4b758a3a5a0295a3\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking at the U.S. state unemployment rates released in April, there is a wide difference between the unemployment rates of open and not fully open states</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ea8a363027959a0705fd178a44e83\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, CEIC, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Inflation: The inflationary pressure that exceeded expectations in April came from the renewed gap between supply and demand, but this gap is expected to show marginal relief from both ends of supply and demand.</b>In late March, the consumption on the demand side after the fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion dropped from the peak, while the bottleneck on the supply side due to cold weather and lack of chips was also being repaired. In May, the local supply bottleneck has improved (the delivery time dropped from the previous month). From the perspective of the industry, the prices of used cars (supply bottleneck) and air tickets (open demand) in April greatly exceeded expectations. However, from the current high frequency, the month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly.<b>We estimate that as long as the average month-on-month growth rate does not exceed 0.2% during the year, the CPI in May will be the high point of the year.</b></p><p><b>Chart: Judging from the supplier delivery time index in the local Fed survey, the local supply bottleneck has improved in May (delivery time dropped month-on-month)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff9644c9e34d56efa233c357c69e094\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05c0285435a9aec4015ba39179b4836\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We calculate that if the monthly average month-on-month does not exceed 0.2% during the year, then the U.S. CPI year-on-year high will appear in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900bee92524289aefa65504110157c0\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In terms of industries, the prices in April greatly exceeded expectations from the previous month, mainly used cars (supply bottleneck) and airfare (open demand)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1386101b4733230ba8f136d3e569cd\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Monetary policy and dollar liquidity:</b>Under the above combination, we tend to think that the long-term recovery of the job market is still the main consideration of the Fed,<b>Therefore, the Fed is expected to remain patient,</b>Technical fine-tuning of Interest Rate Corridor is certainly not ruled out. According to the current repair speed of ~8 million employment gap, we estimate that the fourth quarter may be the window to start the reduction, while the third quarter or the Jackson Hole annual meeting in late summer may suggest the reduction, which also corresponds to the release of new consumer demand and employment after all openings.<b>Against this background, US dollar liquidity, combined with the continuous decline of the cash account of the US Treasury Department, is still expected to remain relatively loose, but we suspect that it will be further strengthened similar to that in the past period (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in US dollar liquidity\").</b></p><p><b>Chart: If both unemployment and labor participation rates are to return to pre-pandemic levels, there is still a gap of more than 8 million jobs, and it will take 10 months to recover even at the pace of March</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aceb187daa37b04c5cefcb1185ab2a95\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The U.S. Treasury's cash account plunged from 1.36 trillion in early March to the latest $812.5 billion, down nearly $550 billion</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82bc05752d2f3f3a0bb90a81cb8f7d1\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p>In addition to the intensive inflation employment data and monetary policy in the first half of June, the progress of further economic opening in the United States and Europe, the fiscal policy of the United States and the epidemic in emerging markets will all be variables that need to be focused on in the coming period.</p><p><b>Allocation Strategy and Recommendation: Main Line or Return to Growth from April Price and May Liquidity</b></p><p><b>Chart: In May, our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c21c9d86f238984672ca5ee07861e0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: European stocks and VIX are major contributors to portfolio gains</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29198c7c71829e341e8bc7a33a8305b8\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Price performance of major overseas assets in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8af5fc956a3bb0e366ca610896ec3b7\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>From the configuration strategy, based on our analysis in the above,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to look for direction and consensus:</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by rising interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2）<b>However, if it passes relatively smoothly as we expect, the main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May.</b>Equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window, while the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited. In particular,</p><p><b>► Cross Assets:</b>Based on the background that growth may return to the main line and liquidity remains loose,<b>We recommend the ranking of stocks> commodities> gold> bonds. EQUITY MARKET</b>We need to pay attention to the possible fluctuations in the process of finding direction and consensus in the first half of June, but even if there are fluctuations, we don't think it is a reversal of the trend;<b>Commodities</b>The price and inventory are still on the high side, and the pure supply-side premium has been partially falsified, so we still recommend waiting for the signal of demand-side repair.<b>Gold</b>Under periodic price pressure, it can still be partially allocated, but it is not recommended to continue to add positions.<b>Interest rate</b>The downside of may be limited.<b>the US Dollar Index</b>The continued weakness is related to the convergence of the scissors gap between the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the surge of US dollar liquidity, but it may strengthen again when the main line turns to growth.</p><p><b>► Cross-market:</b>We are still optimistic about the medium-term prospects supported by the earnings of the US stock market, and pay attention to the disturbance in early June in the short term.<b>Europe</b>The current improvement of the epidemic situation and the gradual acceleration of vaccination will be expected to provide support and maintain a relatively standard configuration.<b>Emerging markets</b>After the early correction, it has been repaired, but internal differentiation and growth prospects are still the main resistances to its overweight, paying attention to the disturbance of US dollar liquidity and marginal changes in US Treasury yields.</p><p><b>► Plate Style:</b>The downward short-end interest rate in May and the abundant liquidity of the US dollar made<b>Growth Style</b>It obviously outperformed in major markets, and if the follow-up growth becomes the main line again, it may turn into balance. In addition, as more opening progress advances,<b>Resumption of work and demand for services</b>The sectors that benefit from the recovery are still worth paying attention to.</p><p>Our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency) in May, performing slightly below global equity markets (1.15%, MSCI Global Index, in US dollars) and commodities (2.64%), but better than global bond markets (0.55%, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Bond Index, in US dollars) and the equity-bond 60/40 portfolio (0.92%). Since its inception in July 2016, the portfolio has accumulated a return of 101.3% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.8. In terms of items, European stocks and commodities are the main contributors to the portfolio rise. Our strategy of slightly cutting U.S. stocks in early May (but maintaining overweight) and adding them to emerging (but overall low) is appropriate in retrospect.</p><p><b>Chart: June Overseas Asset Allocation Recommendations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d48e5a41ba3838b63f63b91d1112f5\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>May Review: Easing Price Pressures, Ample Liquidity and Retracting Interest Rates Support Market and Growth Stock Performance</b></p><p>In May, 1) Cross-asset: bulk> shares> debt; 2) Equity market: emerging> developed; Developed Europe led gains, FAAMNG lagged; In emerging countries, Russia, Brazil, India and A shares are leading, while Hong Kong stocks are lagging behind; 3) Bond market, corporate bonds> high-yield bonds> Treasury Bond; US Treasury yields drops back; 4) Commodities: gold led the rise, copper and crude oil continued to rise as a whole,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>Pudie; 5) Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index weakened, Brazilian Lille and Russian ruble strengthened; 6) Alternative assets, Bitcoin plummeted.</p><p><b>Chart: Performance of global major assets in May: under US dollar pricing, bulk> stocks> bonds, led by GEM, Russian and Indian stock markets, gold and copper; Bitcoin, VIX Bulls, Soybeans, FAAMNG Lead Declines</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90dcb4b382e034b1113cf941307c9e4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>In May, the economic surprise index of the United States, Europe and China fell, while Japan rose. In May, the financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to be loose, while the margins in Europe and China tightened slightly. The capital flow is upward. In May, the capital flow into emerging, European and Japanese stock markets accelerated. The inflow in the United States slowed down compared with April, but the absolute scale is still the highest.</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Europe and China economic surprise index fell back in May, Japan rose</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfcba6982c34a61940673560ac38140a\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to loosen in May, while Europe and China tightened marginally</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3434be95a404935a9ff9c8c2c5a2a89b\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Flows accelerated into emerging, European and Japanese stocks in May, with U.S. inflows slowing from April, but remaining the highest in absolute terms</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f55eb9694de2535b7041b5dc594fce2\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, EPFR, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Japan and emerging companies all outperformed in value in May, with Europe leading growth</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f5319374462533836f48e4c84f7653\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (data as of May 31, 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: In May, the 10-year US Treasury yields retreated slightly, with real interest rates falling and implied inflation expectations rising first and then falling</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab038a49a17a50a1bb267bf4bb810416\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S. corporate bonds, U.S. high-yield bonds, U.S. Treasury Bond and emerging corporate bonds all rose in May, while European Treasury Bond and corporate bonds fell</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8045eabbc8fe09281c41be47e683a310\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Euro, yen, yuan strengthened in May, the US Dollar Index weakened</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1492faa47992f53b285eaae6952669\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: June or a key fork in the road, the main line of global assets or return to growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: June or a key fork in the road, the main line of global assets or return to growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed. However, looking forward to June, the current price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially whether this combination of growth stocks leading the market can be sustained is a general worry in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</p><p><b>So, to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future</b>(The FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th).</p><p><b>Benchmark Judgment: Inflation Marginal Ease, Policy Holds On, Growth Becomes the Main Line Again</b></p><p>In the baseline case,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>After surviving the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month,<b>We expect the market focus to shift from prices in April and liquidity in May again to demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, a return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure.</p><p><b>Allocation strategy: Main line or return to growth from April price and May liquidity</b></p><p>From the configuration policy,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to expect to find direction and consensus</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by the rise in interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2) But if it goes through relatively smoothly as we expect,<b>The main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May, and equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window. However, the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited.</b></p><p><b>After inflation and liquidity, the main line may return to growth</b></p><p><b>— — Monthly Report on Overseas Asset Allocation (2021-6)</b></p><p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed.</b>The price pressure brought by the surge in commodities in April eased marginally with the loosening of the increase, which is consistent with our opinion in \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-5): Whether to sell in May?\" at the beginning of the month that the rise of broad-spectrum commodities is not steady, and that the follow-up performance of commodities should pay more attention to whether demand can take over rather than just supply-side premium in \"U.S. raw material inventories are close to historic highs\".<b>Marginal easing of price pressures, superimposed with a surge in dollar liquidity</b>(\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in Dollar Liquidity\"),<b>It not only promoted the downward trend of US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, but also further spilled over to other exchange rate appreciation and the outperformance of growth stocks.</b>in addition, the US stocks in May did not Sell in May that the market was worried about, but the US stocks still underperformed other major markets. Therefore, it is basically appropriate for us to slightly reduce the allocation ratio of US stocks at the beginning of the month and add it to emerging markets.</p><p><b>Chart: Price pressures from the April commodity surge have eased marginally as gains loosen</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35a357e56119369992540f35a5a53e6\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The Fed's recent use of reverse repurchases hit a record high, with reverse repurchases reaching $485.3 billion on May 27</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a35a7ee8847b13403facada770066cf7\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The three-month cross-swap of the euro, yen and pound with the dollar, which measure global dollar liquidity, also basically hit new lows since 2015</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a57b1727caf390252979ef0e6e2da86\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Looking forward to June, whether the current combination of price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially growth stocks leading, can be sustained is a general concern in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</b>Especially for such a heavy month as June (the FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th respectively).</p><p><b>So to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future:</b>If the employment and inflation pressures are obviously eased, and the Federal Reserve can continue its loose posture, then the market is expected to usher in a new round of breathing window, and the direct impact when the third quarter prompts the official reduction in the fourth quarter is also controllable; On the contrary, if inflation unexpectedly exceeds expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to take action, the market may usher in a new round of volatility. After all, it was obviously earlier than expected to prompt the start of reduction from June to July (Historical Experience and Enlightenment of QE Reduction). Therefore, compared with the so-called selling experience in May, which is actually unreliable from historical experience, if there is an accident, the potential fluctuation in June may be greater, and its impact on future policies and market trends may be greater, not only because of the extremely high correlation between stocks and bonds at present and the historically low correlation between Sino-American stock markets.</p><p><b>Chart: The current stock-bond correlation represented by the S&P 500 index and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has reached a historically high level…</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52141428681b28d3b055d5c20f3a2bbc\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: …while the current correlation between the Chinese and US stock markets handles historically relatively low levels</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d4d494b22ab1794ecb7d962cef64061\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Our benchmark judgment: Inflation marginally eases, policy stands still, growth becomes the main line again</b></p><p>Although there is a considerable possibility of surprises (the April data clearly tells us how big a bias in expectations may be at the inflection point, especially the nonlinear changes caused by the epidemic), under the baseline scenario,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>If this situation can occur, combined with the current loose liquidity state that may be maintained (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent US Dollar Liquidity Surge\"), it is expected to continue to provide a relatively good situation for equity assets and continue to support our positive view on US stocks.<b>After the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month, we expect that the market focus will shift from the price in April and the liquidity in May to the demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, it will return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure. Specifically,</p><p><b>► Growth: Offline consumption and travel demand are continuously recovering, and the number of travellers has reached a new high since the pandemic.</b>The continuous advancement of vaccination has made the opening process continue to advance. At present, 37 states in the United States have been opened, and we expect to enter a fully open state at the end of June and early July. Opening up on a wider scale means more travel and the release of offline service consumption demand, which has been clearly reflected in high-frequency indicators (for example, the number of airport TSA security trips on Memorial Day just past hit a new high since the epidemic), which in turn supports the stamina of demand in the third quarter, and may even mean the repair of the job market (we note that the unemployment rate repair in open and not fully open states is quite different).</p><p><b>Chart: Airport TSA security trips this past Memorial Day hit new high since the pandemic</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ce9d3f9ee3debfe47d14bdf4f206aa\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: At present, 37 states in the United States are fully open, and we expect to enter full opening by the end of June and early July</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6459563ed0ec3d4b758a3a5a0295a3\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking at the U.S. state unemployment rates released in April, there is a wide difference between the unemployment rates of open and not fully open states</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ea8a363027959a0705fd178a44e83\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, CEIC, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Inflation: The inflationary pressure that exceeded expectations in April came from the renewed gap between supply and demand, but this gap is expected to show marginal relief from both ends of supply and demand.</b>In late March, the consumption on the demand side after the fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion dropped from the peak, while the bottleneck on the supply side due to cold weather and lack of chips was also being repaired. In May, the local supply bottleneck has improved (the delivery time dropped from the previous month). From the perspective of the industry, the prices of used cars (supply bottleneck) and air tickets (open demand) in April greatly exceeded expectations. However, from the current high frequency, the month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly.<b>We estimate that as long as the average month-on-month growth rate does not exceed 0.2% during the year, the CPI in May will be the high point of the year.</b></p><p><b>Chart: Judging from the supplier delivery time index in the local Fed survey, the local supply bottleneck has improved in May (delivery time dropped month-on-month)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff9644c9e34d56efa233c357c69e094\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05c0285435a9aec4015ba39179b4836\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We calculate that if the monthly average month-on-month does not exceed 0.2% during the year, then the U.S. CPI year-on-year high will appear in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900bee92524289aefa65504110157c0\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In terms of industries, the prices in April greatly exceeded expectations from the previous month, mainly used cars (supply bottleneck) and airfare (open demand)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1386101b4733230ba8f136d3e569cd\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Monetary policy and dollar liquidity:</b>Under the above combination, we tend to think that the long-term recovery of the job market is still the main consideration of the Fed,<b>Therefore, the Fed is expected to remain patient,</b>Technical fine-tuning of Interest Rate Corridor is certainly not ruled out. According to the current repair speed of ~8 million employment gap, we estimate that the fourth quarter may be the window to start the reduction, while the third quarter or the Jackson Hole annual meeting in late summer may suggest the reduction, which also corresponds to the release of new consumer demand and employment after all openings.<b>Against this background, US dollar liquidity, combined with the continuous decline of the cash account of the US Treasury Department, is still expected to remain relatively loose, but we suspect that it will be further strengthened similar to that in the past period (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in US dollar liquidity\").</b></p><p><b>Chart: If both unemployment and labor participation rates are to return to pre-pandemic levels, there is still a gap of more than 8 million jobs, and it will take 10 months to recover even at the pace of March</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aceb187daa37b04c5cefcb1185ab2a95\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The U.S. Treasury's cash account plunged from 1.36 trillion in early March to the latest $812.5 billion, down nearly $550 billion</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82bc05752d2f3f3a0bb90a81cb8f7d1\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p>In addition to the intensive inflation employment data and monetary policy in the first half of June, the progress of further economic opening in the United States and Europe, the fiscal policy of the United States and the epidemic in emerging markets will all be variables that need to be focused on in the coming period.</p><p><b>Allocation Strategy and Recommendation: Main Line or Return to Growth from April Price and May Liquidity</b></p><p><b>Chart: In May, our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c21c9d86f238984672ca5ee07861e0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: European stocks and VIX are major contributors to portfolio gains</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29198c7c71829e341e8bc7a33a8305b8\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Price performance of major overseas assets in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8af5fc956a3bb0e366ca610896ec3b7\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>From the configuration strategy, based on our analysis in the above,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to look for direction and consensus:</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by rising interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2）<b>However, if it passes relatively smoothly as we expect, the main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May.</b>Equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window, while the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited. In particular,</p><p><b>► Cross Assets:</b>Based on the background that growth may return to the main line and liquidity remains loose,<b>We recommend the ranking of stocks> commodities> gold> bonds. EQUITY MARKET</b>We need to pay attention to the possible fluctuations in the process of finding direction and consensus in the first half of June, but even if there are fluctuations, we don't think it is a reversal of the trend;<b>Commodities</b>The price and inventory are still on the high side, and the pure supply-side premium has been partially falsified, so we still recommend waiting for the signal of demand-side repair.<b>Gold</b>Under periodic price pressure, it can still be partially allocated, but it is not recommended to continue to add positions.<b>Interest rate</b>The downside of may be limited.<b>the US Dollar Index</b>The continued weakness is related to the convergence of the scissors gap between the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the surge of US dollar liquidity, but it may strengthen again when the main line turns to growth.</p><p><b>► Cross-market:</b>We are still optimistic about the medium-term prospects supported by the earnings of the US stock market, and pay attention to the disturbance in early June in the short term.<b>Europe</b>The current improvement of the epidemic situation and the gradual acceleration of vaccination will be expected to provide support and maintain a relatively standard configuration.<b>Emerging markets</b>After the early correction, it has been repaired, but internal differentiation and growth prospects are still the main resistances to its overweight, paying attention to the disturbance of US dollar liquidity and marginal changes in US Treasury yields.</p><p><b>► Plate Style:</b>The downward short-end interest rate in May and the abundant liquidity of the US dollar made<b>Growth Style</b>It obviously outperformed in major markets, and if the follow-up growth becomes the main line again, it may turn into balance. In addition, as more opening progress advances,<b>Resumption of work and demand for services</b>The sectors that benefit from the recovery are still worth paying attention to.</p><p>Our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency) in May, performing slightly below global equity markets (1.15%, MSCI Global Index, in US dollars) and commodities (2.64%), but better than global bond markets (0.55%, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Bond Index, in US dollars) and the equity-bond 60/40 portfolio (0.92%). Since its inception in July 2016, the portfolio has accumulated a return of 101.3% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.8. In terms of items, European stocks and commodities are the main contributors to the portfolio rise. Our strategy of slightly cutting U.S. stocks in early May (but maintaining overweight) and adding them to emerging (but overall low) is appropriate in retrospect.</p><p><b>Chart: June Overseas Asset Allocation Recommendations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d48e5a41ba3838b63f63b91d1112f5\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>May Review: Easing Price Pressures, Ample Liquidity and Retracting Interest Rates Support Market and Growth Stock Performance</b></p><p>In May, 1) Cross-asset: bulk> shares> debt; 2) Equity market: emerging> developed; Developed Europe led gains, FAAMNG lagged; In emerging countries, Russia, Brazil, India and A shares are leading, while Hong Kong stocks are lagging behind; 3) Bond market, corporate bonds> high-yield bonds> Treasury Bond; US Treasury yields drops back; 4) Commodities: gold led the rise, copper and crude oil continued to rise as a whole,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>Pudie; 5) Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index weakened, Brazilian Lille and Russian ruble strengthened; 6) Alternative assets, Bitcoin plummeted.</p><p><b>Chart: Performance of global major assets in May: under US dollar pricing, bulk> stocks> bonds, led by GEM, Russian and Indian stock markets, gold and copper; Bitcoin, VIX Bulls, Soybeans, FAAMNG Lead Declines</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90dcb4b382e034b1113cf941307c9e4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>In May, the economic surprise index of the United States, Europe and China fell, while Japan rose. In May, the financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to be loose, while the margins in Europe and China tightened slightly. The capital flow is upward. In May, the capital flow into emerging, European and Japanese stock markets accelerated. The inflow in the United States slowed down compared with April, but the absolute scale is still the highest.</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Europe and China economic surprise index fell back in May, Japan rose</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfcba6982c34a61940673560ac38140a\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to loosen in May, while Europe and China tightened marginally</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3434be95a404935a9ff9c8c2c5a2a89b\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Flows accelerated into emerging, European and Japanese stocks in May, with U.S. inflows slowing from April, but remaining the highest in absolute terms</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f55eb9694de2535b7041b5dc594fce2\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, EPFR, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Japan and emerging companies all outperformed in value in May, with Europe leading growth</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f5319374462533836f48e4c84f7653\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (data as of May 31, 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: In May, the 10-year US Treasury yields retreated slightly, with real interest rates falling and implied inflation expectations rising first and then falling</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab038a49a17a50a1bb267bf4bb810416\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S. corporate bonds, U.S. high-yield bonds, U.S. Treasury Bond and emerging corporate bonds all rose in May, while European Treasury Bond and corporate bonds fell</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8045eabbc8fe09281c41be47e683a310\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Euro, yen, yuan strengthened in May, the US Dollar Index weakened</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1492faa47992f53b285eaae6952669\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/487337.html\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150cf3636f70b725226ad8b674ce0650","relate_stocks":{"518880":"黄金ETF华安","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck",".DJI":"道琼斯","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/487337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140449283","content_text":"6月或是关键岔路口：对未来政策预期和市场走向有重要影响\n回顾看，5月驱动全球资产定价的逻辑已经悄然出现一些变化。但展望6月，当前价格压力暂缓、流动性向好、利率回落、美元走弱推动市场特别是成长股领先的这一组合能否持续却是市场普遍担心的问题，对美国通胀和货币政策变化的担忧依然是悬在投资者头上的“两朵乌云”。\n因此某种程度上，6月甚至可能成为影响未来一段政策（预期）和市场走向的关键岔路口（6月15~16日召开FOMC会议，6月4日和6月10日公布5月非农和CPI数据）。\n基准判断：通胀边际缓解、政策按兵不动、增长再成主线\n基准情形下，我们倾向于认为通胀压力或边际缓解（同比因基数效应将继续抬升但环比有望回落）、就业市场较4月改善但依然趋紧、美联储因此维持耐心直到夏天或三季度。而渡过上半月数据和政策扰动后，我们预期市场关注点将从4月的价格和5月的流动性再度转向美国更大范围开放后的需求修复，也即重回增长主线。此时，美元有可能再度走强，而黄金或承压。\n配置策略：主线或从4月的价格和5月的流动性重回增长\n从配置策略上，6月上半月无疑是市场预期寻找方向和共识的重要窗口：1）如果出现预期外变化进而引发市场动荡，参照2013年QE削减恐慌的经验，利率上冲造成的波动，股票债券和黄金都不是好的选择，更应以降低仓位的方式应对。2）但若如我们预期的相对平稳渡过的话，全球资产主线则有望从4月份的通胀和5月的流动性重回增长，权益资产也或迎来新一轮增长驱动的喘息窗口，而美国全面开放的增长动能或支撑美元表现，并压制黄金，利率的下行空间也相对有限。\n通胀和流动性后，主线或重回增长\n——海外资产配置月报（2021-6）\n6月或是关键岔路口：对未来政策预期和市场走向有重要影响\n回顾看，5月份驱动全球资产定价的逻辑已经在悄然间出现一些变化。4月大宗商品大涨带来的价格压力随着涨幅松动边际缓解，这与我们月初《海外资产配置月报（2021-5）：五月是否卖出？》提出广谱大宗商品上涨并非稳态、以及在《美国原材料库存已接近历史高位》中提示大宗商品后续表现要更多关注需求能否接棒而非仅是供给侧溢价观点一致。价格压力的边际缓解，叠加美元流动性激增（《近期美元流动性激增的内外部含义》），既推动了美债利率和美元指数的下行，也进一步外溢到其他汇率升值和成长股的跑赢。此外，5月的美股也并没有出现市场担心的五月卖出（Sell in May），但美股依然跑输其他主要市场，因此我们在月初小幅下调美股配置比例并略加到新兴市场也是基本恰当的。\n图表：4月大宗商品大涨带来的价格压力随着涨幅的松动已经边际缓解资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：美联储近期逆回购使用规模创纪录新高，5月27日当日逆回购规模达4853亿美元资料来源：FRED，Bloomberg，TSA，中金公司研究部\n图表：  衡量全球美元流动性的欧元日元和英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换也都基本创下2015年以来的新低资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n展望6月，当前价格压力暂缓、流动性向好、利率回落、美元走弱推动市场特别是成长股领先的这一组合能否持续却是市场普遍担心的问题，对美国通胀和货币政策变化的担忧依然是悬在投资者头上的“两朵乌云”，特别是对于6月份这样一个重磅月份而言（6月15~16日召开FOMC会议，6月4日和6月10日分别将公布5月非农和CPI数据）。\n因此某种程度上，6月甚至可能成为影响未来一段时间政策（预期）和市场走向的关键岔路口：如果就业和通胀压力明显缓解，美联储也得以延续宽松姿态，那么市场有望迎来新一轮喘息窗口，待三季度提示四季度正式减量时的直击冲击也是可控的；相反，如果通胀意外大超预期，迫使美联储不得不采取行动的话，市场可能重新迎来一轮波动，毕竟在6~7月就提示开始减量是明显早于预期的（《QE减量的历史经验与启示》）。所以相比所谓的从历史经验看其实并不可靠的5月卖出经验，如果出现意外的话6月的潜在波动反而可能更大，其对未来政策和市场走向的影响也更大，倒不仅仅是因为目前处于极端高位的股债相关性以及处于历史低位的中美股市相关性。\n图表:   当前以标普500指数和美国10年期国债收益率为代表的股债相关性达到历史相对高位…资料来源：FRED，Bloomberg，TSA，中金公司研究部\n图表: …而当前中美股市之间的相关性处理历史相对低位资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n我们的基准判断：通胀边际缓解、政策按兵不动、增长再成主线\n虽然存在相当大的意外可能性（4月数据清楚的告诉我们在拐点处、特别是疫情造成的非线性变化可能会导致多么大的预期偏差），但基准情形下，我们倾向于认为通胀压力或边际缓解（同比因基数效应将继续抬升但环比有望回落）、就业市场较4月改善但依然趋紧、美联储因此维持耐心直到夏天或三季度。这一局面若能出现，结合当前可能维持的宽松流动性状态（《近期美元流动性激增的内外部含义》），有望继续给权益类资产提供相对较好的局面，也继续支撑我们对美股积极的看法。而渡过上半月数据和政策扰动后，我们预期市场关注点将从4月的价格和5月的流动性再度转向美国更大范围开放后的需求修复，也即重回增长主线。此时，美元有可能再度走强，而黄金或承压。具体来看，\n►增长：线下消费与出行需求正在持续修复，出行人数创疫情以来新高。疫苗接种持续推进使得开放进程不断推进，目前美国37个州已经开放，我们预计6月底7月初有望进入全部开放状态。更大范围内的开放意味着更多的出行和线下服务性消费需求的释放，这一点从高频指标上已经得到明显体现（例如刚刚过去的阵亡将士纪念日的机场TSA安检出行人数创出疫情以来新高），进而支撑需求在三季度的后劲，甚至也可能意味着就业市场的修复（我们注意到开放与未完全开放州的失业率修复相差较大）。\n图表： 刚刚过去的阵亡将士纪念日的机场TSA安检出行人数创出疫情以来新高资料来源：FRED，Bloomberg，TSA，中金公司研究部\n图表：目前美国已有37个州完全开放，我们预计6月底7月初有望进入全部开放状态资料来源：NYT，Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：从美国4月公布的各州失业率来看，开放与未完全开放的州的失业率相差较大资料来源：NYT，CEIC，中金公司研究部\n►通胀：4月大超预期的通胀压力来自再度扩大的供需裂口，但这一裂口从供需两端看都有望出现边际缓解。需求侧3月下旬1.9万亿美元财政刺激后的消费从高峰回落、而供给侧因为寒冷天气和缺少芯片等因素的瓶颈也在修复，5月份局部的供应瓶颈已经出现改善（交付时间环比回落）。从行业来看，4月份价格环比大超预期的主要是二手车（供应瓶颈）和机票（开放需求），但从目前高频数看，5月二手车价格环比增速已经明显回落。我们测算，只要年内每个月环比平均增速不超过0.2%的话，5月CPI同比便将是年内高点。\n图表:   从地方联储调查中的供应商交货时间指数来看，5月份局部的供应瓶颈已经出现改善（交付时间环比回落）资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月二手车价格环比增速已经明显回落资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表： 我们测算，如果年内月平均环比不超过0.2%的话，那么美国CPI同比高点就将在5月出现资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表：分行业来看，4月价格环比大超预期的主要是二手车（供应瓶颈）和机票（开放需求）资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部\n►货币政策和美元流动性：上述组合下，我们倾向于认为就业市场长期修复依然是美联储的主要考量依据，因此美联储有望维持耐心按兵不动，当然不排除对利率走廊做出技术性微调。根据当前~800万就业缺口的修复速度，我们测算四季度可能是开始减量的窗口，而三季度或者夏末Jackson Hole年会可能提示减量，这一时间也正好对应全部开放后新增消费需求和就业的释放。美元流动性在这一背景下，结合美国财政部现金账户的持续回落，仍有望维持相对宽松局面，但我们怀疑还会类似于过去一段时间那样进一步加强（《近期美元流动性激增的内外部含义》）。\n图表：若要失业率和劳动参与率都回至疫情前的话还有超过800万的就业缺口，即便按照3月修复速度也需要10个月资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表：美国财政部的现金账户从3月上旬的1.36万亿骤降至最新的8125亿美元，减少近5500亿美元资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n除了6月上半月密集的通胀就业数据和货币政策外，美欧经济进一步开放进展、美国财政政策以及新兴市场疫情都将是未来一段时间需要重点关注的变量。\n配置策略与建议：主线或从4月的价格和5月的流动性重回增长\n图表：5月，我们的海外资产配置组合上涨1.08%（本币计价）资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n图表： 欧洲股市及VIX是组合上涨的主要贡献资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月主要海外资产价格表现资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n从配置策略上，基于我们在上文中的分析，6月上半月无疑是市场预期寻找方向和共识的重要窗口：1）如果出现预期外变化进而引发市场动荡，参照2013年QE削减恐慌的经验，利率上冲造成的波动，股票债券和黄金都不是好的选择，更应以降低仓位的方式应对。2）但若如我们预期的相对平稳渡过的话，全球资产主线则有望从4月份的通胀和5月的流动性重回增长，权益资产也或迎来新一轮增长驱动的喘息窗口，而美国全面开放的增长动能或支撑美元表现，并压制黄金，利率的下行空间也相对有限。具体而言，\n►跨资产：基于增长可能重回主线而流动性维持宽松的大背景，我们建议股>大宗>黄金>债券的排序。权益市场需要关注6月上半月寻找方向和共识过程中的可能波动，但即便出现波动我们也不认为是趋势的逆转；大宗商品价格和库存依然偏高，单纯的供给侧溢价在部分被证伪，因此我们依然建议等待需求侧修复的信号。黄金在阶段性的价格压力下仍可以部分配置，但不建议继续加仓。利率的下行空间可能有限。美元指数持续的弱势和欧美疫情剪刀差收敛以及美元流动性激增有关，但当主线转向增长后可能会再度走强。\n►跨市场：我们依然看好美股市场盈利支撑下的中期前景，短期关注6月上旬的扰动。欧洲当前疫情改善和疫苗接种的逐步加速将有望提供支撑，维持相对标配。新兴市场在经历了前期回调后有所修复，但内部分化和增长前景依然是对其超配的主要阻力，关注美元流动性和美债利率边际变化的扰动。\n►板块风格：5月短端利率下行和美元流动性充裕使得成长风格在主要市场均明显跑赢，后续如果增长再度成为主线后可能会转为均衡。此外，随着更多开放进展的推进，复工和服务性需求回升受益的板块依然值得关注。\n我们海外资产配置组合5月上涨1.08%（本币计价），表现略低于全球股市（1.15%，MSCI全球指数，美元计价）和大宗商品（2.64%），但好于全球债市（0.55%，美银美林全球债券指数，美元计价）和股债60/40组合（0.92%）。自2016年7月成立以来，该组合累积回报101.3%，夏普比率2.8。分项看，欧洲股市和大宗商品是组合上涨的主要贡献。我们在5月初小幅下调美股（但维持超配）并加至新兴（但整体偏低）的策略回过头来看是恰当的。\n图表：6月海外资产配置建议资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n5月回顾：价格压力缓解、流动性宽裕和利率回落支撑市场与成长股表现\n5月，1）跨资产：大宗>股>债；2）权益市场：新兴>发达；发达中欧洲领涨，FAAMNG落后；新兴中，俄罗斯、巴西、印度及A股领先，港股落后；3）债券市场，公司债>高收益债>国债；美债利率回落；4）大宗商品：黄金领涨、铜、原油整体继续上行，农产品普跌；5）汇率：美元指数走弱，巴西里尔、俄罗斯卢布走强；6）另类资产，比特币大跌。\n图表：5月全球大类资产表现：美元计价下，大宗>股>债，创业板、俄罗斯及印度股市、黄金、铜领涨；比特币、VIX多头、大豆、FAAMNG领跌资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n5月，美国、欧洲及中国经济意外指数回落，日本抬升。5月，美国、日本金融条件趋向宽松，欧洲及中国边际上略有收紧。资金流向上，5月，资金加速流入新兴、欧洲及日本股市，美国较4月流入放缓，但绝对规模依然最高。\n图表：5月美国、欧洲以及中国经济意外指数回落，日本抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月美国、日本金融条件趋向宽松，欧洲及中国边际上略有收紧资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月，资金加速流入新兴、欧洲及日本股市，美国较4月流入放缓，但绝对规模依然最高资料来源：Bloomberg，EPFR，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月美国、日本及新兴均为价值跑赢，欧洲成长领先资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（数据截止2021年5月31日）\n图表：5月，10年期美债利率略有回落，其中实际利率下滑，隐含通胀预期先升后降资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月美国公司债、美国高收益债、美国国债、新兴公司债均上涨，欧洲国债及公司债下跌资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表:   5月欧元、日元、人民币走强，美元指数走弱资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"518880":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134707378,"gmtCreate":1622257396094,"gmtModify":1704182371640,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP","listText":"RIP","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/134707378","repostId":"1139893263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139893263","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621926753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139893263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 15:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on May 31 due to Memorial Day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139893263","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景","content":"<p>It is reported that on May 31st (Monday), the U.S. stock market was closed for one day due to Memorial Day in the United States, and it will trade as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>On Monday, May 31st, the British stock market was closed for one day due to Bank Holiday, and trading as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Memorial Day: A holiday commemorated by most states in the United States. It was originally May 30. After 1971, many states changed it to the last Monday of May to ensure that federal employees could enjoy this Day of rest.</p><p>In the American Civil War, countless soldiers were killed in battle. At the end of the war, many families in the south began to pay tribute to the soldiers killed in the war. Northerners were deeply moved by the fact that they offered flowers in the spring to the graves of the dead on both sides, regardless of north and south, and saw the gesture as a symbol of national unity. In 1868, May 30 was officially sanctioned as the day to lay flowers in honor of the soldiers who died heroically in defence of the motherland.</p><p>Every Memorial Day, American active-duty soldiers and veterans line up to the cemetery, shoot guns to pay tribute to the fallen soldiers, and blow the lights out in the army to let the dead soldiers rest in peace.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on May 31 due to Memorial Day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks are closed for one day on May 31 due to Memorial Day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 15:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is reported that on May 31st (Monday), the U.S. stock market was closed for one day due to Memorial Day in the United States, and it will trade as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>On Monday, May 31st, the British stock market was closed for one day due to Bank Holiday, and trading as usual from Tuesday.</p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Memorial Day: A holiday commemorated by most states in the United States. It was originally May 30. After 1971, many states changed it to the last Monday of May to ensure that federal employees could enjoy this Day of rest.</p><p>In the American Civil War, countless soldiers were killed in battle. At the end of the war, many families in the south began to pay tribute to the soldiers killed in the war. Northerners were deeply moved by the fact that they offered flowers in the spring to the graves of the dead on both sides, regardless of north and south, and saw the gesture as a symbol of national unity. In 1868, May 30 was officially sanctioned as the day to lay flowers in honor of the soldiers who died heroically in defence of the motherland.</p><p>Every Memorial Day, American active-duty soldiers and veterans line up to the cemetery, shoot guns to pay tribute to the fallen soldiers, and blow the lights out in the army to let the dead soldiers rest in peace.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5ab469653a1d3faf593c83b1649c9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139893263","content_text":"据悉，5月31日（周一）因美国阵亡将士纪念日，美股市场休市一日，周二起照常交易。5月31日（周一）英股市场因Bank Holiday休市一日，周二起照常交易。港股、A股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景简介：阵亡将士纪念日（Memorial Day）：是美国大多数州都要纪念的节日，时间原为5月30日，1971年以后，为保证联邦雇员都能享有这一休息日，许多州将它改在5月的最后一个星期一。美国南北战争中，无数将士在战火中阵亡。战争结束，南部许多家庭开始祭奠战争中阵亡的将士。他们不分南北双方，在春天向双方死者的墓地都奉献鲜花，北方人为此深受感动，将这一举动视为民族团结的象征。1868年，5月30日这一天被正式批准为向为保卫祖国而英勇牺牲的士兵们敬献鲜花的日子。每逢阵亡将士纪念日，美国现役军人和老战士便排成长长的队伍前往墓地，鸣枪向阵亡将士致意，吹响军中熄灯号让死难将士安息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136189471,"gmtCreate":1621999211593,"gmtModify":1704365795200,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136189471","repostId":"1105914038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105914038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621998995,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105914038?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 11:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Internet Thinking Redo Educational Hardware, Netease Youdao's Way to Success","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105914038","media":"砺石商业评论","summary":"砺石导语：种种迹象显示，火热的在线教育被按下暂停键之后，教育智能硬件正在成为新的风口。\n\n随着智能台灯、词典笔、智能教育平板、口袋打印机等一系列新兴智能学习产品的问世与热销，一场涉及到互联网大厂、在线","content":"<p><b>Introduction to the stone sharpening:</b>There are signs that the hot online education has been pressed after the pause button, education<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware is becoming a new outlet. With the advent and hot sale of a series of emerging intelligent learning products such as intelligent desk lamps, dictionary pens, intelligent educational tablets and pocket printers, an educational intelligent hardware war involving Internet manufacturers, online education giants and traditional educational hardware manufacturers is getting momentum.</p><p>May 25,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>Youdao officially released a companion language learning tool specially created for children aged 3-12-Netease<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>Dictionary Pen for Kids. On the basis of Youdao Dictionary Pen 3 \"Super Fast Check\" and \"Scan Translation\", the new children's dictionary pen is customized in function and content according to the usage habits of people aged 3-12, which can meet the learning needs of English and Chinese at the same time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868b973df4c4bde334c686afbe67bd91\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the technical iteration and market cultivation of Netease Youdao's third generation of dictionary pens, dictionary pens have become the third largest market segment of learning intelligent hardware. At the same time, Netease Youdao has successfully opened the second curve of enterprise growth through intelligent education hardware, and thus become the leader of intelligent education hardware track.</p><p>After the Internet paved a highway for the upgrading and reshaping of traditional industries, controversies about the impact of the Internet on traditional industries and the resulting controversies are also constantly emerging. How to promote the development of educational hardware industry with Internet thinking? Netease Youdao has made useful explorations at present.</p><p><b>1. Technological progress, the \"driving force\" of the industry's rise</b></p><p>Since 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the transfer of learning scenes from schools to families, not only has the penetration rate of online education been greatly improved, but the market of intelligent education hardware has also exploded rapidly. Intelligent and interactive new generation educational hardware, such as smart desk lamps, translators and dictionary pens, began to enter the public's field of view and go to ordinary people's families.</p><p>For the intelligent learning hardware industry that is not yet in the blue ocean market, the epidemic is only a catalyst. The huge population base of appropriate age and the increasing spending power of Chinese people are the sustained kinetic energy of the development of the industry. According to the forecast of Multi-Whale Capital Education Research Institute, by 2022, the market size of K12 educational intelligent hardware alone will reach 57 billion yuan.</p><p>From the perspective of consumers, the emergence of intelligent learning hardware products comes at the right time. After the technological progress makes the \"intelligent\" function of educational intelligent hardware truly land, the effectiveness of the new generation of products in assisting teaching and improving students' learning ability is obvious to all.</p><p>From the once dispensable \"toy products\" to the necessary teaching and tutoring tools for schools and families, the functional iteration of the new generation of intelligent educational hardware products is reflected in various aspects such as timeliness, interactivity and accuracy, which further promotes the outbreak of user demand. In this respect, the success of Netease Youdao Dictionary Pen undoubtedly has the most say.</p><p>Unlike most enterprises that follow the trend, Netease Youdao began to explore in the field of educational intelligent hardware very early. Since the launch of Youdao Translation Egg in October 2017, Netease Youdao has successively launched twelve products, among which \"Youdao Dictionary Pen\" has created the category of intelligent dictionary pen, which has been widely praised by users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d744cdbc14a028beb61298683bd44b0c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a star product in Youdao educational hardware, Youdao Dictionary Pen 3 has many innovative functions such as \"interactive reading\", \"super-fast check\" and \"scanning word search\". Among them, the world's first \"ultra-fast check\" function makes the scanning word search evolve to \"click\" to complete the word search; The addition of the \"interactive point reading\" function extends the age of users in the dictionary pen category to 3 years old, becoming the only intelligent learning hardware on the market that realizes visual point reading.</p><p>The data shows that since its launch in August 2019, Youdao Dictionary Pen has become Tmall and Tmall for two consecutive years on Double Eleven in 2019, 618 and Double Eleven in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Platform electronic dictionary category sales champion. At the same time, the product has been successively introduced to more than 120 well-known universities, middle schools and primary schools in China, such as Tsinghua University, Fudan University and Hebei Hengshui Middle School, covering more than 25 provinces, municipalities and municipalities directly under the Central Government, benefiting more than 2 million teachers and students.</p><p>The newly released Youdao Children's Dictionary Pen is expected to become another explosive product in Netease Youdao hardware matrix. Through the customized design of functions and contents such as fun interaction design and graded learning content, the launch of Youdao Children's Dictionary Pen is expected to further enhance Youdao's brand influence in the children's market and continue to expand its leading advantage in the intelligent learning hardware track.</p><p>On May 18th, Netease Youdao released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. According to the data, the company's Q1 net income reached 1.340 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.5%, setting another record high. Among them, educational intelligent hardware products achieved sales of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 279.8%, far exceeding that of other businesses, and replaced advertising as the second growth curve of Netease Youdao for several consecutive quarters.</p><p>It can be seen that Netease Youdao's success in the hardware field not only drives the growth of the company's revenue scale, but also lets the company get rid of its dependence on advertising business. Obviously, this also provides a new way for other Internet giants to get rid of traffic anxiety, and the competition of intelligent educational hardware has entered a new stage.</p><p><b>2. The game intensifies. How can Netease Youdao win?</b></p><p>At present, there are three main types of players in the intelligent education hardware market. The first category is a reader,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">BBK</a>And other traditional educational hardware enterprises; The second category is Netease, ByteDance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Alibaba and other Internet companies, among which ByteDance, Tencent and Ali belong to the latest lamp-making army to go to the sea, while Netease Youdao continues to deepen the advantageous field of dictionary pen; The third category is online education giants such as homework help and ape counseling. At present, they have made some moves in the fields of smart lights and educational tablets.</p><p>Who can win in the competition?</p><p>From the above analysis, it can be seen that the significance of Internet companies and online education enterprises to develop educational hardware is far more than the market size of 57 billion yuan. Traffic entrance and ecological closed loop are all factors that need to be considered, which also increases the complexity of the game. For example, ByteDance publicly announced that \"the education business will not consider profitability within three years\".</p><p>Although this statement of ByteDance is suspected of attracting attention, it also shows that the intensification of industry competition in the future will be inevitable. This is obviously not good news for traditional educational hardware enterprises.</p><p>Competing with Internet giants on the same stage, the weakness of traditional educational hardware enterprises is far more than financial strength, and the gap in technology, content and even ecology is even more fatal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92fff15a11acbe22349e07e48a9f68a\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First of all, in the face of the demand of the new generation of educational hardware for new functions such as intelligence and interaction, most traditional hardware enterprises do not have the technical strength of artificial intelligence and voice interaction, and its product iteration mode of \"old wine in new bottles\" is difficult to maintain.</p><p>The deficiency of content is another big weakness of traditional hardware enterprises. Whether it is compared with online education enterprises such as Homework Help and Ape Counseling, or Internet companies such as Netease Youdao that have been deeply involved in the education field for many years, traditional educational hardware enterprises lack both educational resources and a deep understanding of the education industry.</p><p>Therefore, a few traditional hardware enterprises may be able to get a share of the \"intelligent\" era in the short term with the help of their brand and channel advantages. In the long term, it is inevitable that they will decline or even withdraw from the historical stage.</p><p>Among the two camps of Internet companies and online education enterprises, Netease Youdao, which has technical strength and content advantages, has become a very unique one. On the one hand, as an Internet company, Netease Youdao has laid out its education business as early as 14 years ago, and the number of Youdao dictionary users launched in 2007 has exceeded 800 million.</p><p>In 2014, Netease Youdao officially entered the field of online education. By substituting high-frequency tools for the output of high-quality content, Youdao has formed a unique online education system, which is far deeper than the skills of young rivals who have been listed for several years.</p><p>On the other hand, Netease Youdao is the first Internet company to lay out educational hardware business, and it has obvious first-mover advantage compared with companies such as ByteDance.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Netease Youdao has accumulated deeply in the technical field. For example, it is not easy to concentrate the functions of checking, reading, scanning and translating in one pen. In order to realize automatic recognition and ensure smooth and seamless user experience, Youdao Dictionary Pen 3 independently developed the world's first super-sensing optical system, which is compatible with the automatic judgment and recognition of two AI technologies, OCR (optical character recognition) and OID (optical identification code), and can recognize infrared light and visible light at the same time, which is a huge technological innovation.</p><p>Back to the previous question, after excluding traditional educational hardware companies, who can have the last laugh between the two camps of Internet companies and online education companies?</p><p>In fact, Netease Youdao's current success is close to giving the final answer. Only enterprises with content, hardware and a deep understanding of the education industry will be the ultimate winners of the new round of hardware war. From these points of view, Netease Youdao can't see an opponent with real comprehensive strength for the time being.</p><p><b>3. Summary</b></p><p>If you do something, you must not do something. Adherence to the deep vertical direction and technological innovation are undoubtedly the two principles of Netease Youdao's rapid development in the hardware field, and they are also the key to the company's current leading industry. As Wu Yinghui, senior vice president of Netease Youdao and head of Youdao products, said, \"We are different from some Internet companies that will enter the hardware industry. Hardware R&D and manufacturing is one of our fundamental skills.\"</p><p>Can Internet thinking subvert all industries? Judging from the achievements of Netease Youdao at present, it should be feasible to reshape the educational hardware industry with Internet thinking. At the same time, Netease Youdao's practice of abandoning \"blindly seeking speed\" in Internet thinking, making products and contents well, and truly meeting users' needs is worth learning from all new enterprises in the educational hardware market, and it also points out the direction for avoiding possible industry involvement in the future.</p>","source":"lsy1571105524917","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Internet Thinking Redo Educational Hardware, Netease Youdao's Way to Success</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInternet Thinking Redo Educational Hardware, Netease Youdao's Way to Success\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">砺石商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Introduction to the stone sharpening:</b>There are signs that the hot online education has been pressed after the pause button, education<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware is becoming a new outlet. With the advent and hot sale of a series of emerging intelligent learning products such as intelligent desk lamps, dictionary pens, intelligent educational tablets and pocket printers, an educational intelligent hardware war involving Internet manufacturers, online education giants and traditional educational hardware manufacturers is getting momentum.</p><p>May 25,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>Youdao officially released a companion language learning tool specially created for children aged 3-12-Netease<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>Dictionary Pen for Kids. On the basis of Youdao Dictionary Pen 3 \"Super Fast Check\" and \"Scan Translation\", the new children's dictionary pen is customized in function and content according to the usage habits of people aged 3-12, which can meet the learning needs of English and Chinese at the same time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868b973df4c4bde334c686afbe67bd91\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the technical iteration and market cultivation of Netease Youdao's third generation of dictionary pens, dictionary pens have become the third largest market segment of learning intelligent hardware. At the same time, Netease Youdao has successfully opened the second curve of enterprise growth through intelligent education hardware, and thus become the leader of intelligent education hardware track.</p><p>After the Internet paved a highway for the upgrading and reshaping of traditional industries, controversies about the impact of the Internet on traditional industries and the resulting controversies are also constantly emerging. How to promote the development of educational hardware industry with Internet thinking? Netease Youdao has made useful explorations at present.</p><p><b>1. Technological progress, the \"driving force\" of the industry's rise</b></p><p>Since 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the transfer of learning scenes from schools to families, not only has the penetration rate of online education been greatly improved, but the market of intelligent education hardware has also exploded rapidly. Intelligent and interactive new generation educational hardware, such as smart desk lamps, translators and dictionary pens, began to enter the public's field of view and go to ordinary people's families.</p><p>For the intelligent learning hardware industry that is not yet in the blue ocean market, the epidemic is only a catalyst. The huge population base of appropriate age and the increasing spending power of Chinese people are the sustained kinetic energy of the development of the industry. According to the forecast of Multi-Whale Capital Education Research Institute, by 2022, the market size of K12 educational intelligent hardware alone will reach 57 billion yuan.</p><p>From the perspective of consumers, the emergence of intelligent learning hardware products comes at the right time. After the technological progress makes the \"intelligent\" function of educational intelligent hardware truly land, the effectiveness of the new generation of products in assisting teaching and improving students' learning ability is obvious to all.</p><p>From the once dispensable \"toy products\" to the necessary teaching and tutoring tools for schools and families, the functional iteration of the new generation of intelligent educational hardware products is reflected in various aspects such as timeliness, interactivity and accuracy, which further promotes the outbreak of user demand. In this respect, the success of Netease Youdao Dictionary Pen undoubtedly has the most say.</p><p>Unlike most enterprises that follow the trend, Netease Youdao began to explore in the field of educational intelligent hardware very early. Since the launch of Youdao Translation Egg in October 2017, Netease Youdao has successively launched twelve products, among which \"Youdao Dictionary Pen\" has created the category of intelligent dictionary pen, which has been widely praised by users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d744cdbc14a028beb61298683bd44b0c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a star product in Youdao educational hardware, Youdao Dictionary Pen 3 has many innovative functions such as \"interactive reading\", \"super-fast check\" and \"scanning word search\". Among them, the world's first \"ultra-fast check\" function makes the scanning word search evolve to \"click\" to complete the word search; The addition of the \"interactive point reading\" function extends the age of users in the dictionary pen category to 3 years old, becoming the only intelligent learning hardware on the market that realizes visual point reading.</p><p>The data shows that since its launch in August 2019, Youdao Dictionary Pen has become Tmall and Tmall for two consecutive years on Double Eleven in 2019, 618 and Double Eleven in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Platform electronic dictionary category sales champion. At the same time, the product has been successively introduced to more than 120 well-known universities, middle schools and primary schools in China, such as Tsinghua University, Fudan University and Hebei Hengshui Middle School, covering more than 25 provinces, municipalities and municipalities directly under the Central Government, benefiting more than 2 million teachers and students.</p><p>The newly released Youdao Children's Dictionary Pen is expected to become another explosive product in Netease Youdao hardware matrix. Through the customized design of functions and contents such as fun interaction design and graded learning content, the launch of Youdao Children's Dictionary Pen is expected to further enhance Youdao's brand influence in the children's market and continue to expand its leading advantage in the intelligent learning hardware track.</p><p>On May 18th, Netease Youdao released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. According to the data, the company's Q1 net income reached 1.340 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.5%, setting another record high. Among them, educational intelligent hardware products achieved sales of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 279.8%, far exceeding that of other businesses, and replaced advertising as the second growth curve of Netease Youdao for several consecutive quarters.</p><p>It can be seen that Netease Youdao's success in the hardware field not only drives the growth of the company's revenue scale, but also lets the company get rid of its dependence on advertising business. Obviously, this also provides a new way for other Internet giants to get rid of traffic anxiety, and the competition of intelligent educational hardware has entered a new stage.</p><p><b>2. The game intensifies. How can Netease Youdao win?</b></p><p>At present, there are three main types of players in the intelligent education hardware market. The first category is a reader,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">BBK</a>And other traditional educational hardware enterprises; The second category is Netease, ByteDance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Alibaba and other Internet companies, among which ByteDance, Tencent and Ali belong to the latest lamp-making army to go to the sea, while Netease Youdao continues to deepen the advantageous field of dictionary pen; The third category is online education giants such as homework help and ape counseling. At present, they have made some moves in the fields of smart lights and educational tablets.</p><p>Who can win in the competition?</p><p>From the above analysis, it can be seen that the significance of Internet companies and online education enterprises to develop educational hardware is far more than the market size of 57 billion yuan. Traffic entrance and ecological closed loop are all factors that need to be considered, which also increases the complexity of the game. For example, ByteDance publicly announced that \"the education business will not consider profitability within three years\".</p><p>Although this statement of ByteDance is suspected of attracting attention, it also shows that the intensification of industry competition in the future will be inevitable. This is obviously not good news for traditional educational hardware enterprises.</p><p>Competing with Internet giants on the same stage, the weakness of traditional educational hardware enterprises is far more than financial strength, and the gap in technology, content and even ecology is even more fatal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92fff15a11acbe22349e07e48a9f68a\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First of all, in the face of the demand of the new generation of educational hardware for new functions such as intelligence and interaction, most traditional hardware enterprises do not have the technical strength of artificial intelligence and voice interaction, and its product iteration mode of \"old wine in new bottles\" is difficult to maintain.</p><p>The deficiency of content is another big weakness of traditional hardware enterprises. Whether it is compared with online education enterprises such as Homework Help and Ape Counseling, or Internet companies such as Netease Youdao that have been deeply involved in the education field for many years, traditional educational hardware enterprises lack both educational resources and a deep understanding of the education industry.</p><p>Therefore, a few traditional hardware enterprises may be able to get a share of the \"intelligent\" era in the short term with the help of their brand and channel advantages. In the long term, it is inevitable that they will decline or even withdraw from the historical stage.</p><p>Among the two camps of Internet companies and online education enterprises, Netease Youdao, which has technical strength and content advantages, has become a very unique one. On the one hand, as an Internet company, Netease Youdao has laid out its education business as early as 14 years ago, and the number of Youdao dictionary users launched in 2007 has exceeded 800 million.</p><p>In 2014, Netease Youdao officially entered the field of online education. By substituting high-frequency tools for the output of high-quality content, Youdao has formed a unique online education system, which is far deeper than the skills of young rivals who have been listed for several years.</p><p>On the other hand, Netease Youdao is the first Internet company to lay out educational hardware business, and it has obvious first-mover advantage compared with companies such as ByteDance.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Netease Youdao has accumulated deeply in the technical field. For example, it is not easy to concentrate the functions of checking, reading, scanning and translating in one pen. In order to realize automatic recognition and ensure smooth and seamless user experience, Youdao Dictionary Pen 3 independently developed the world's first super-sensing optical system, which is compatible with the automatic judgment and recognition of two AI technologies, OCR (optical character recognition) and OID (optical identification code), and can recognize infrared light and visible light at the same time, which is a huge technological innovation.</p><p>Back to the previous question, after excluding traditional educational hardware companies, who can have the last laugh between the two camps of Internet companies and online education companies?</p><p>In fact, Netease Youdao's current success is close to giving the final answer. Only enterprises with content, hardware and a deep understanding of the education industry will be the ultimate winners of the new round of hardware war. From these points of view, Netease Youdao can't see an opponent with real comprehensive strength for the time being.</p><p><b>3. Summary</b></p><p>If you do something, you must not do something. Adherence to the deep vertical direction and technological innovation are undoubtedly the two principles of Netease Youdao's rapid development in the hardware field, and they are also the key to the company's current leading industry. As Wu Yinghui, senior vice president of Netease Youdao and head of Youdao products, said, \"We are different from some Internet companies that will enter the hardware industry. Hardware R&D and manufacturing is one of our fundamental skills.\"</p><p>Can Internet thinking subvert all industries? Judging from the achievements of Netease Youdao at present, it should be feasible to reshape the educational hardware industry with Internet thinking. At the same time, Netease Youdao's practice of abandoning \"blindly seeking speed\" in Internet thinking, making products and contents well, and truly meeting users' needs is worth learning from all new enterprises in the educational hardware market, and it also points out the direction for avoiding possible industry involvement in the future.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bxnDN4PXPzASQgkQg-jBmQ\">砺石商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e72ca58f133676176c9a0223c6c935","relate_stocks":{"DAO":"有道"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bxnDN4PXPzASQgkQg-jBmQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105914038","content_text":"砺石导语：种种迹象显示，火热的在线教育被按下暂停键之后，教育智能硬件正在成为新的风口。\n\n随着智能台灯、词典笔、智能教育平板、口袋打印机等一系列新兴智能学习产品的问世与热销，一场涉及到互联网大厂、在线教育巨头以及传统教育硬件厂商三方的教育智能硬件大战正蓄势待发。\n5月25日，网易有道正式发布专为3-12岁少年儿童打造的陪伴式语言学习工具——网易有道儿童词典笔。在有道词典笔3“超快点查”、“扫描翻译”的基础上，新款儿童词典笔针对3-12岁人群使用习惯在功能和内容上进行了定制，可以同时满足英语、语文双语种的学习需要。\n\n凭借网易有道三代词典笔的技术迭代与市场培育，词典笔已经成为学习智能硬件第三大细分市场。同时，网易有道也通过智能教育硬件成功打开了企业成长的第二曲线，并藉此成为智能教育硬件赛道的领跑者。\n在互联网为传统产业的升级与重塑铺就出一条高速公路后，有关互联网所给传统产业的冲击并由此引发的争议也在不断出现。如何用互联网思维促进教育硬件产业的发展？网易有道目前已经做出了有益的探索。\n1、技术进步，行业风起的“原动力”\n2020年以来，新冠疫情促使学习场景由学校转移到家庭之后，不仅在线教育渗透率得到大幅提升，智能教育硬件市场也得以快速爆发。智能台灯、翻译机、词典笔等智能化、互动化的新一代教育硬件开始走入大众视野，走向了普通人家庭之中。\n对于尚未蓝海市场的智能学习硬件行业而言，疫情只是一个催化剂，庞大的适龄人口基数以及国人不断提升的消费能力才是行业发展的持续动能。据多鲸资本教育研究院预测，至2022年，仅K12教育智能硬件市场规模就将达到570亿元。\n从消费者角度而言，智能学习硬件产品的出现可谓恰逢其时。技术进步让教育智能硬件的“智能”功能真正落地后，新一代产品在辅助教学、提升学生学习能力方面的成效有目共睹。\n从曾经可有可无的“玩具产品”到学校、家庭必备的教学与辅导工具，新一代智能教育硬件产品的功能迭代体现在时效性、互动性、精确度等各个方面，这又进一步促进了用户需求的爆发。在这一方面，网易有道词典笔的成功无疑最有话语权。\n与多数跟风入局的企业不同，网易有道很早就开始了在教育类智能硬件领域的探索。自2017年10月推出有道翻译蛋开始，网易有道已先后推出了十二款产品，其中，“有道词典笔”开创了智能词典笔这一品类，受到了用户的广泛好评。\n\n作为有道教育硬件中的明星产品，有道词典笔3具有“互动点读”、“超快点查”、“扫描查词”等多项创新功能。其中，全球首创的“超快点查”功能让扫描查词进化至“点击一下”即可完成查词；新增了“互动点读”功能则将词典笔品类的用户年龄下探拓展至3岁，成为市面上唯一一款实现了可视化点读的智能学习硬件。\n数据显示，自2019年8月上市以来，有道词典笔已经在2019年双十一、2020年618与双十一，连续两年成为天猫和京东平台电子词典品类销售冠军。同时，该产品已陆续被引入清华大学、复旦大学、河北衡水中学等全国超过120所知名大中小学校，覆盖全国超过25个省市直辖市，惠及师生群体超200万人。\n最新发布的有道儿童词典笔则有望成为网易有道硬件矩阵中的又一爆款产品。通过趣味交互设计、分级学习内容等功能与内容的定制化设计，有道儿童词典笔的上市有望进一步增强有道在儿童市场的品牌影响力，并继续在智能学习硬件赛道扩大领跑优势。\n5月18日，网易有道发布2021年第一季度财报，数据显示，公司Q1净收入达到13.40亿元，同比增长147.5%，再创历史新高。其中，教育智能硬件产品实现销售2.02亿元，同比增长279.8%，增幅远超过其它业务，并连续多个季度取代广告成为网易有道第二增长曲线。\n可以看到的是，网易有道在硬件领域的成功，不仅带动了公司营收规模的增长，也让公司摆脱了对广告业务的依赖。显然，这也为其它互联网巨头提供了一条摆脱流量焦虑的新路径，智能教育硬件的竞争也由此进入新阶段。\n2、博弈加剧，网易有道如何胜出？\n目前的智能教育硬件市场，主要有三类玩家。第一类是读书郎、步步高等传统教育硬件企业；第二类是网易、字节跳动、腾讯、阿里等互联网企业，其中，字节跳动、腾讯、阿里属于最新下海的造灯大军，网易有道则持续深耕词典笔这一优势领域；第三类是作业帮、猿辅导等在线教育巨头，目前在智能灯与教育平板等领域有所动作。\n群雄逐鹿，谁能胜出？\n由以上分析可知，互联网公司以及在线教育企业发力教育硬件的意义远不止570亿元的市场规模，流量入口、生态闭环等均是需要考量的因素，这也增加了博弈的复杂性。比如，字节跳动就公开宣布：“教育业务三年内不考虑盈利”。\n字节跳动这一表述虽有博取眼球之嫌，但也说明未来行业竞争的加剧将不可避免。这对于传统教育硬件企业而言，显然不是好消息。\n与互联网巨头同台竞争，传统教育硬件企业弱势远不止资金实力这一方面，技术、内容乃至生态方面的差距更为致命。\n\n首先，面对新一代教育硬件对智能、互动等全新功能的诉求，多数传统硬件企业不具备人工智能、语音交互等技术实力，其“新瓶装旧酒”的产品迭代模式也就难以维系。\n内容方面的不足则是传统硬件企业的又一大软肋。无论是对比作业帮、猿辅导等在线教育企业，还是对比网易有道等深耕教育领域多年的互联网公司，传统教育硬件企业既缺少教育资源，更缺少对教育行业的深刻理解。\n因此，少数传统硬件企业短期或许还可以借助品牌及渠道优势在“智能”时代分到一杯羹，长期看走向衰退乃至退出历史舞台恐怕不可避免。\n而在互联网公司与线教育企业两大阵营中，具备技术实力与内容优势的网易有道成为很独特的一家。一方面，作为互联网企业，网易有道早在14年前就已经布局教育业务，2007年上线的有道词典用户数已经超过8亿人。\n2014年，网易有道正式进入到在线教育领域。以高频工具代入精品内容输出，有道形成了一个独有的在线教育体系，远比动辄几年上市的年轻对手功力深厚。\n另一方面，网易有道又是互联网企业中最先布局教育硬件业务的一家，相比字节跳动等公司明显具有先发优势。\n值得一提的是，网易有道目前已经在技术领域有了深厚积累。例如，将点查、点读与扫描翻译等功能集中于一支笔头并不容易，为了实现自动识别，保证用户体验流畅且无缝切换，有道词典笔3自主研发了全球首创的超感光学系统，兼容了OCR（光学字符识别）与OID（光学辨识码）两个AI技术的自动判断与识别，可同时识别红外光与可见光，这是一个巨大的技术创新。\n再回到之前的那个问题，排除传统教育硬件企业之后，互联网公司与在线教育企业两大阵营谁又能笑到最后？\n实际上，网易有道目前的成功，就接近给出了最后的答案。只有具备内容、硬件以及对教育行业深刻理解的企业，才会是新一轮硬件大战的最终胜利者。从这几条来看，网易有道暂时还看不到真正具备综合实力的对手。\n3、总结\n有所为，必然就有所不为，坚持深度垂直方向和技术创新无疑是网易有道在硬件领域快速发展的两大原则，也是公司目前领跑行业的关键。正如网易有道高级副总裁、有道产品负责人吴迎晖所言，“我们不同于一些互联网公司会进入到硬件行业，硬件研发制造是我们的根本技能之一。”\n互联网思维是否可以颠覆一切产业？从网易有道目前所取得的成绩来看，用互联网思维重塑教育硬件产业应该是行得通的。与此同时，网易有道对互联网思维中“一味求快”的摒弃、立足做好产品和内容，真正满足用户需求等等的做法，都非常值得所有新入局教育硬件市场企业学习，也为未来避免可能出现的行业内卷指明了方向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DAO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133171522,"gmtCreate":1621731769266,"gmtModify":1704361778350,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP","listText":"RIP","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133171522","repostId":"2137857011","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375473373,"gmtCreate":1619394837292,"gmtModify":1704723061555,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375473373","repostId":"1192282045","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378595890,"gmtCreate":1619049390010,"gmtModify":1704718742911,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378595890","repostId":"1131768787","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131768787","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619049115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131768787?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 07:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks rebounded to close higher across the board, and U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131768787","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股反弹全线收涨；热门中概股收盘多数走高，新能源汽车股普涨；美油大幅收跌2.1％，创一周多新低；金价收高0.8％，创下两个月新高；美国20年期国债标售畅旺，交易商获配创恢复标售以来最低值；亚马逊","content":"<p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p>U.S. stocks rebounded and closed higher across the board; Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher, and new energy vehicle stocks generally rose; U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week; Gold closed 0.8% higher, hitting a two-month high; The auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in the United States was booming, and dealers were allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed higher across the board after falling for two consecutive days: the Nasdaq rose by more than 1%, and Netflix's earnings report fell by more than 7% far below expectations</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow up more than 300 points. Major stock indexes rebounded after falling for two consecutive days, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The market is still weighing the latest developments in the global pandemic and U.S. stock earnings. By the close, the Nasdaq was up 1.19%, the Dow was up 0.94% and the S&P 500 was up 0.93%.</p><p>Tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 3.5%, Netflix fell more than 7%. Chip stocks rallied collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Up nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher on Wednesday, and new energy vehicle stocks rose generally</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks rose generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>up 12.96%, fog core technology rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 5.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>up 4.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>up 3.24%.</p><p>3. Corporate earnings season continues European stocks closed higher across the board on Wednesday</p><p>The three major European stock indexes closed higher collectively, with Germany's DAX index rising 0.44% and France's CAC40 index rising 0.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 52%.</p><p>4. U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week!</p><p>Traders are worried that the spread of the epidemic in Asia will hurt energy demand. Official data of the United States showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly climbed last week, and the United States and Burundi continued the decline of the previous day, both closing at the lowest level in more than a week. Finally, WTIJune crude oil futures closed down $1.32, or 2.10%, at $61.35/barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed down $1.73, or 2.58%, at $65.32/barrel.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up by 0.8%, recording the second consecutive increase! Hits a new two-month high, approaches the $1,800 mark</p><p>Gold and silver fluctuated higher on Wednesday, spurred by news such as increasing infections from the more contagious coronavirus variant. COMEX June gold futures closed up 0.8% at $1,793.10/oz.</p><p>6. The 20-year Treasury Bond auction in the United States is booming, and traders are allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction</p><p>At 01: 00 on April 22nd, the U.S. Treasury held a 20-year Treasury Bond auction, with a scale of $24 billion. In terms of allocation ratio, direct buyers, including the Federal Reserve and other U.S. federal government entities, received 20.2% this time, the highest value since the resumption of auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in May last year.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Biden announced that the task of vaccinating 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been completed</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden said at a news conference that the goal of administering 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been reached, and specific data and related reports will be released tomorrow. Biden also said that more than half of adults in the United States have received at least one dose of vaccine so far, and 80% of people over 65 have received at least one dose of vaccine.</p><p>2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized that addressing climate change requires the participation of private capital</p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that tackling the \"existential threat\" posed by climate change requires not only government spending, but also private capital participation.</p><p>3. The Bank of Canada has drastically reduced the scale of bond purchases and expected that the rate hike time may be advanced</p><p>Faced with a stronger-than-expected economic rebound, the Bank of Canada turned hawkish on Wednesday, saying it would reduce asset purchases by a quarter, expecting that rate hike may be earlier.</p><p>4. Biden calls on companies to provide employees with paid leave for COVID-19 vaccination</p><p>President Joe Biden on Wednesday will announce a tax credit for employers offering vaccine-related paid leave. The White House is urging more Americans to seek COVID-19 vaccinations as vaccination rates have declined slightly in recent days.</p><p>5. Global debt reached a record high of 281 trillion USD! Is loose monetary policy the biggest risk in the market?</p><p>Jeremy Grantham warns that there is only one sensible reading of the current situation: \"The long bull market that began in 2009 has finally matured and turned into a complete, epic bubble.\"</p><p>6. International Olympic Committee: Many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19</p><p>On the 21st local time, IOC President Bach said at the press conference that many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19.</p><p>7. The presiding judge of Meng Wanzhou's extradition case ruled to postpone the trial</p><p>On April 21, local time, Judge Heather Holmes of the Superior Court of British Columbia, Canada, ruled on Meng's lawyer's request to postpone the trial, agreeing to postpone the trial until early August. The court will determine the exact schedule on April 28.</p><p>8. Supply shortages add to surging demand, U.S. car prices rise to record levels</p><p>U.S. auto prices have risen to record levels and are soaring due to bottlenecks in production capacity of car companies caused by chip shortages and a sharp increase in market demand after widespread vaccination.</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805200\" target=\"_blank\">The wind turns! SPAC boom suddenly cools heading into April, hit by new SEC accounting rules</a></p><p>According to SPAC Research, after more than 100 new transactions were completed in March, the number of SPAC listings stagnated in April, with only 10 SPAC listings generated in total.</p><p>10. IATA raised its loss forecast for the aviation industry, saying that the timetable for the reopening of global air travel was delayed</p><p>The airline industry's main lobbying group has widened its estimated figure for losses this year by about a quarter, saying new outbreaks and virus variants have pushed back the timeline for the reopening of air travel worldwide.</p><p>11. The United States proposes to lift sanctions on Iran nuclear deal negotiations make progress</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has signaled a willingness to ease restrictions on Iran's oil, finance and other industries, but Iran wants to see more concrete steps that will help narrow differences in negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129808987\" target=\"_blank\">Another High-Level Change in Tesla's Legal Department! Legal VP Prescott Announces Departure</a></p><p>Al Prescott, a longtime vice president of law and acting general counsel at Tesla, has left the electric vehicle and renewable energy company to join lidar startup Luminar.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805576\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla's financial report is imminent: frequent accidents, investigation of autonomous driving system, can performance dispel doubts?</a></p><p>Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2021 earnings after the stock market closes next Monday EST (early Tuesday morning Beijing time), and the company is now facing a situation where its advanced driver assistance system Autopilot is shrouded in clouds.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129036028\" target=\"_blank\">The third largest software industry IPO in U.S. stocks: RPA enterprise Uipath landed on NYSE IPO surged 23% on the first day</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Process automation (RPA) startup Uipath (stock symbol PATH) officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. It opened about 17% higher on the first day of its IPO, and its share price was reported at $65.50, once rising above $70 during the session. At the close, the company's shares were trading at $69, or 23.21%, giving it a market capitalization of $35.8 billion.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1103447697\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, it was reported that Amazon was considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129877113\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceX sends four astronauts to the space station on Crew-2 mission tomorrow</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, Beijing time, it is reported that SpaceX, a space exploration technology company, will carry out the \"Crew-2\" mission tomorrow, sending four astronauts to the International Space Station (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a>）。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159480880\" target=\"_blank\">Credit Suisse accumulates more than $20 billion in Archegos-related exposure</a></p><p>Sources said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Accumulating more than $20 billion in investment exposure related to ARCHEGOS, Credit Suisse's CEO and chief risk officer learned of the company's exposure days before the company's margin call. Credit Suisse struggled to monitor its exposure to ARCHEGOS until the fund closed out.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks rebounded to close higher across the board, and U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: U.S. stocks rebounded to close higher across the board, and U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-22 07:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p>U.S. stocks rebounded and closed higher across the board; Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher, and new energy vehicle stocks generally rose; U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week; Gold closed 0.8% higher, hitting a two-month high; The auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in the United States was booming, and dealers were allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed higher across the board after falling for two consecutive days: the Nasdaq rose by more than 1%, and Netflix's earnings report fell by more than 7% far below expectations</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow up more than 300 points. Major stock indexes rebounded after falling for two consecutive days, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The market is still weighing the latest developments in the global pandemic and U.S. stock earnings. By the close, the Nasdaq was up 1.19%, the Dow was up 0.94% and the S&P 500 was up 0.93%.</p><p>Tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 3.5%, Netflix fell more than 7%. Chip stocks rallied collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Up nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher on Wednesday, and new energy vehicle stocks rose generally</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks rose generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>up 12.96%, fog core technology rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 5.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>up 4.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>up 3.24%.</p><p>3. Corporate earnings season continues European stocks closed higher across the board on Wednesday</p><p>The three major European stock indexes closed higher collectively, with Germany's DAX index rising 0.44% and France's CAC40 index rising 0.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 52%.</p><p>4. U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week!</p><p>Traders are worried that the spread of the epidemic in Asia will hurt energy demand. Official data of the United States showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly climbed last week, and the United States and Burundi continued the decline of the previous day, both closing at the lowest level in more than a week. Finally, WTIJune crude oil futures closed down $1.32, or 2.10%, at $61.35/barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed down $1.73, or 2.58%, at $65.32/barrel.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up by 0.8%, recording the second consecutive increase! Hits a new two-month high, approaches the $1,800 mark</p><p>Gold and silver fluctuated higher on Wednesday, spurred by news such as increasing infections from the more contagious coronavirus variant. COMEX June gold futures closed up 0.8% at $1,793.10/oz.</p><p>6. The 20-year Treasury Bond auction in the United States is booming, and traders are allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction</p><p>At 01: 00 on April 22nd, the U.S. Treasury held a 20-year Treasury Bond auction, with a scale of $24 billion. In terms of allocation ratio, direct buyers, including the Federal Reserve and other U.S. federal government entities, received 20.2% this time, the highest value since the resumption of auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in May last year.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Biden announced that the task of vaccinating 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been completed</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden said at a news conference that the goal of administering 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been reached, and specific data and related reports will be released tomorrow. Biden also said that more than half of adults in the United States have received at least one dose of vaccine so far, and 80% of people over 65 have received at least one dose of vaccine.</p><p>2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized that addressing climate change requires the participation of private capital</p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that tackling the \"existential threat\" posed by climate change requires not only government spending, but also private capital participation.</p><p>3. The Bank of Canada has drastically reduced the scale of bond purchases and expected that the rate hike time may be advanced</p><p>Faced with a stronger-than-expected economic rebound, the Bank of Canada turned hawkish on Wednesday, saying it would reduce asset purchases by a quarter, expecting that rate hike may be earlier.</p><p>4. Biden calls on companies to provide employees with paid leave for COVID-19 vaccination</p><p>President Joe Biden on Wednesday will announce a tax credit for employers offering vaccine-related paid leave. The White House is urging more Americans to seek COVID-19 vaccinations as vaccination rates have declined slightly in recent days.</p><p>5. Global debt reached a record high of 281 trillion USD! Is loose monetary policy the biggest risk in the market?</p><p>Jeremy Grantham warns that there is only one sensible reading of the current situation: \"The long bull market that began in 2009 has finally matured and turned into a complete, epic bubble.\"</p><p>6. International Olympic Committee: Many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19</p><p>On the 21st local time, IOC President Bach said at the press conference that many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19.</p><p>7. The presiding judge of Meng Wanzhou's extradition case ruled to postpone the trial</p><p>On April 21, local time, Judge Heather Holmes of the Superior Court of British Columbia, Canada, ruled on Meng's lawyer's request to postpone the trial, agreeing to postpone the trial until early August. The court will determine the exact schedule on April 28.</p><p>8. Supply shortages add to surging demand, U.S. car prices rise to record levels</p><p>U.S. auto prices have risen to record levels and are soaring due to bottlenecks in production capacity of car companies caused by chip shortages and a sharp increase in market demand after widespread vaccination.</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805200\" target=\"_blank\">The wind turns! SPAC boom suddenly cools heading into April, hit by new SEC accounting rules</a></p><p>According to SPAC Research, after more than 100 new transactions were completed in March, the number of SPAC listings stagnated in April, with only 10 SPAC listings generated in total.</p><p>10. IATA raised its loss forecast for the aviation industry, saying that the timetable for the reopening of global air travel was delayed</p><p>The airline industry's main lobbying group has widened its estimated figure for losses this year by about a quarter, saying new outbreaks and virus variants have pushed back the timeline for the reopening of air travel worldwide.</p><p>11. The United States proposes to lift sanctions on Iran nuclear deal negotiations make progress</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has signaled a willingness to ease restrictions on Iran's oil, finance and other industries, but Iran wants to see more concrete steps that will help narrow differences in negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129808987\" target=\"_blank\">Another High-Level Change in Tesla's Legal Department! Legal VP Prescott Announces Departure</a></p><p>Al Prescott, a longtime vice president of law and acting general counsel at Tesla, has left the electric vehicle and renewable energy company to join lidar startup Luminar.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805576\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla's financial report is imminent: frequent accidents, investigation of autonomous driving system, can performance dispel doubts?</a></p><p>Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2021 earnings after the stock market closes next Monday EST (early Tuesday morning Beijing time), and the company is now facing a situation where its advanced driver assistance system Autopilot is shrouded in clouds.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129036028\" target=\"_blank\">The third largest software industry IPO in U.S. stocks: RPA enterprise Uipath landed on NYSE IPO surged 23% on the first day</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Process automation (RPA) startup Uipath (stock symbol PATH) officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. It opened about 17% higher on the first day of its IPO, and its share price was reported at $65.50, once rising above $70 during the session. At the close, the company's shares were trading at $69, or 23.21%, giving it a market capitalization of $35.8 billion.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1103447697\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, it was reported that Amazon was considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129877113\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceX sends four astronauts to the space station on Crew-2 mission tomorrow</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, Beijing time, it is reported that SpaceX, a space exploration technology company, will carry out the \"Crew-2\" mission tomorrow, sending four astronauts to the International Space Station (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a>）。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159480880\" target=\"_blank\">Credit Suisse accumulates more than $20 billion in Archegos-related exposure</a></p><p>Sources said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Accumulating more than $20 billion in investment exposure related to ARCHEGOS, Credit Suisse's CEO and chief risk officer learned of the company's exposure days before the company's margin call. Credit Suisse struggled to monitor its exposure to ARCHEGOS until the fund closed out.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131768787","content_text":"摘要：美股反弹全线收涨；热门中概股收盘多数走高，新能源汽车股普涨；美油大幅收跌2.1％，创一周多新低；金价收高0.8％，创下两个月新高；美国20年期国债标售畅旺，交易商获配创恢复标售以来最低值；亚马逊正考虑接受狗狗币作为支付方式。海外市场1、美股连跌两日后全线收涨：纳指涨超1% 奈飞财报远逊预期跌逾7％美股周三收高，道指涨逾300点。主要股指连续两日下跌之后反弹，周期性板块领涨。市场仍在权衡全球疫情与美股财报的最新进展。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数涨1.19%，道琼斯指数涨0.94%，标普500指数涨0.93%。科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉涨3.5%，奈飞跌超7%。芯片股集体上涨，AMD涨近3%。2、热门中概股周三收盘多数走高 新能源汽车股普涨热门中概股普涨，嘉楠科技涨12.96%，雾芯科技涨超8%，蔚来汽车涨5.32%，小鹏汽车涨4.25%，理想汽车涨3.24%。3、企业财报季仍在持续 欧股周三全线收高欧洲三大股指集体收涨，德国DAX指数涨0.44%，法国CAC40指数涨0.74%，英国富时100指数涨52%。4、美油大幅收跌2.1％，创一周多新低！交易商担心亚洲疫情蔓延将伤及能源需求。美国官方数据显示上周原油库存意外攀升，美布两油延续前一日的跌势，双双收于一周多来的最低水平。最终，WTI6月原油期货收跌1.32美元，跌幅2.10%，报61.35美元/桶。布伦特6月原油期货收跌1.73美元，跌幅2.58%，报65.32美元/桶。5、金价收高0.8％，录得二连涨！创下两个月新高，逼近1800美元关口受传染性更强的新冠病毒变种感染病例正在增加等消息刺激，周三金银震荡走高。COMEX6月黄金期货收涨0.8%，报1793.10美元/盎司。6、美国20年期国债标售畅旺 交易商获配创恢复标售以来最低值4月22日01：00，美国财政部进行了20年期国债标售，本次标售规模为240亿美元。获配比例方面，美联储和其他美国联邦政府实体在内的直接购买人本次获得了20.2%，创下去年5月恢复标售20年期国债以来的最高值。国际宏观1、拜登宣布接种2亿剂新冠疫苗的任务已经完成美国总统拜登在一场新闻发布会上表示，接种2亿剂新冠疫苗的目标已经达成，具体数据和相关报告将在明天发布。拜登还表示，截至目前全美超过半数成年人接种了至少一剂疫苗，同时，65岁以上老人中有80%接种了至少一剂疫苗。2、美国财长耶伦强调应对气候变化需要民间资本参与美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦称，应对气候变化带来的“生存威胁”不仅需要政府支出，还需要民间资本参与。3、加拿大央行大幅削减购债规模 并预计加息时间可能提前面对强于预期的经济反弹势头，加拿大央行周三立场转向鹰派，称将把资产购买规模缩减四分之一，预期加息时间可能提前。4、拜登呼吁企业向员工提供带薪假用于新冠疫苗接种美国总统拜登周三将宣布，对提供疫苗相关带薪休假的雇主实行税收抵免。白宫敦促更多美国人寻求新冠肺炎疫苗接种，因最近几天疫苗接种率略有下降。5、全球债务达281万亿美元创新高！宽松货币政策成市场最大风险？格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）警告说，对当下的局面只能做出一种合理解读：“开始于2009年的漫长牛市最终进入成熟期，变身为彻头彻尾的，史诗级别的泡沫。”6、国际奥委会：入住东京奥运村的许多运动员将接种新冠疫苗当地时间21日，国际奥委会主席巴赫在发布会上表示，入住东京奥运村的许多运动员都将接种新冠疫苗。7、孟晚舟引渡案主审法官裁决延期审理当地时间4月21日，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省高等法院法官希瑟·霍尔姆斯（Heather Holmes）就孟晚舟的律师提出延期审理的请求作出裁决，同意延期到8月初审理。法庭将于4月28日确定具体的排期。8、供应短缺叠加需求暴增 美国汽车价格升至创纪录水平由于芯片短缺导致车企产能出现瓶颈，以及疫苗广泛接种后市场需求大幅提升，美国汽汽车价格升至创纪录水平，而且还在飙升。9、风水轮流转！受SEC会计新规打击，SPAC热潮进入四月突然降温根据SPAC Research的数据，在3月份完成100多宗新交易之后，4月份的SPAC上市数量却停滞不前，一共只产生了10起SPAC上市案。10、IATA上调航空业亏损预期 称全球航空旅行重新开放的时间表推迟航空业的主要游说团体将今年的亏损估计数字扩大了大约四分之一，称新的疫情爆发和病毒变种已经导致全球航空旅行重新开放的时间表推迟。11、美国提出解除制裁 伊朗核协议谈判取得进展据知情人士透露，美国总统拜登的政府表示愿意放松针对伊朗石油、金融和其他行业的限制措施，但伊朗方面希望看到更加具体的举措，这将有助于缩小谈判分歧。公司新闻1、特斯拉法务部门再次发生高层变动！法律副总裁普雷斯科特宣布离职长期担任特斯拉法律副总裁兼代理总法律顾问的阿尔·普雷斯科特已经离开这家电动汽车和可再生能源公司，加入激光雷达初创公司Luminar。2、特斯拉财报在即：事故频发、自动驾驶系统遭调查，业绩能否打消质疑？特斯拉公司定于美国东部时间下周一股市收盘后（北京时间下周二凌晨）公布2021年第一季度财报，而该公司现在面临的形势是，其先进的驾驶员辅助系统Autopilot正笼罩在阴云之中。3、美股第三大软件业IPO：RPA企业Uipath登陆纽交所 IPO首日大涨23%机器人过程自动化（RPA）初创公司Uipath（股票代码PATH）周三正式登陆纽交所，IPO首日高开约17%，股价报65.50美元，盘中一度涨破70美元。截至收盘，该公司股价报69美元，涨幅23.21%，市值358亿美元。4、亚马逊正考虑接受狗狗币作为支付方式4月21日晚间消息，据报道，亚马逊正考虑接受狗狗币作为支付方式。5、SpaceX明日执行Crew-2任务 把4名宇航员送入空间站北京时间4月21日晚间消息，据报道，太空探索技术公司SpaceX将于明日执行“Crew-2”任务，把四名宇航员送入国际空间站（ISS）。6、瑞信积累了超过200亿美元与ARCHEGOS相关的风险敞口消息人士称，瑞士信贷积累了超过200亿美元与ARCHEGOS相关的投资风险敞口，瑞信首席执行官和首席风险官在该公司追加保证金通知前几天就得知了该公司的风险敞口。在该基金平仓之前，瑞信难以监控其对ARCHEGOS的敞口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177985511,"gmtCreate":1627176129333,"gmtModify":1703485020940,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177985511","repostId":"2154558939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"content":"Student driveHeart","text":"Student driveHeart","html":"Student driveHeart"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026758806,"gmtCreate":1653437428405,"gmtModify":1676535281445,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026758806","repostId":"1154327965","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890451164,"gmtCreate":1628129594258,"gmtModify":1703501772533,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890451164","repostId":"2157835104","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2157835104","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628087020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2157835104?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 22:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"An education technology intraday change rapidly rose by 5.09% in early trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2157835104","media":"自选股智能写手","summary":"北京时间2021年08月04日22时23分，一起教育科技股票出现异动，股价大幅拉升5.09%。截至发稿，该股报1.20美元/股，成交量87.7922万股，换手率0.46%，振幅5.26%。机构评级方面，在所有2家参与评级的机构中，100%的券商给予卖出建议，无券商给予买入、持有建议。一起教育科技股票所在的教育服务行业中，整体跌幅为0.33%。","content":"<p><html><body><article>At 22:23 on August 04, 2021, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">Education Technology Together</a>(YQ.us) Stock Moves, Shares Price Significantly<span>pull up</span>5.09%。 As of press time, the stock was reported at $1.20/share, with a trading volume of 877,922 shares.<span>Turnover rate</span>0.46%, amplitude 5.26%.</p><p>Recent earnings data shows that the stock achieved<span>OPERATING INCOME</span>$73.19 million,<span>Net Profit</span>-$102 million,<span>Earnings per share</span>-$0.21,<span>Gross profit</span>$44.24 million, P/E-0.33x.</p><p>In terms of institutional rating, among all two institutions participating in the rating, 100% of the brokers gave selling recommendations, and no brokers gave buying and holding recommendations.</p><p>The overall decline in the Education Services sector, where Together Ed Tech stocks are located, was 0.33%. Among its related stocks, Midland International Education Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REDU\">Ruisi Education</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">Pu Xin Education</a>The increase is large. Midland International Education Group, Puxin Education and Worry-free English are more active, with turnover rates of 9.49%, 4.66% and 1.98% respectively. Related stocks with large amplitudes are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Suntech Institutions</a>Pu Xin Education,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/METXW\">Meten Edtechx Education Group Ltd</a>C/Wts 31/03/2025 (To Pur Com), The amplitudes were 27.34%, 26.38% and 25.40%, respectively.</p><p>Together EdTech Company Profile: Together EdTech Group, Inc. is an online tutoring company. It is an ed-tech company that provides data-driven instruction, learning, and assessment products to teachers, students, and parents in K-12+ schools.</p><p>(The above contents are optional stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The machine writer Money Call is completed. It is only used as a reference for users to read the market, not as a basis for transactions.)</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>An education technology intraday change rapidly rose by 5.09% in early trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAn education technology intraday change rapidly rose by 5.09% in early trading\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">自选股智能写手</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>At 22:23 on August 04, 2021, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">Education Technology Together</a>(YQ.us) Stock Moves, Shares Price Significantly<span>pull up</span>5.09%。 As of press time, the stock was reported at $1.20/share, with a trading volume of 877,922 shares.<span>Turnover rate</span>0.46%, amplitude 5.26%.</p><p>Recent earnings data shows that the stock achieved<span>OPERATING INCOME</span>$73.19 million,<span>Net Profit</span>-$102 million,<span>Earnings per share</span>-$0.21,<span>Gross profit</span>$44.24 million, P/E-0.33x.</p><p>In terms of institutional rating, among all two institutions participating in the rating, 100% of the brokers gave selling recommendations, and no brokers gave buying and holding recommendations.</p><p>The overall decline in the Education Services sector, where Together Ed Tech stocks are located, was 0.33%. Among its related stocks, Midland International Education Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REDU\">Ruisi Education</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">Pu Xin Education</a>The increase is large. Midland International Education Group, Puxin Education and Worry-free English are more active, with turnover rates of 9.49%, 4.66% and 1.98% respectively. Related stocks with large amplitudes are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Suntech Institutions</a>Pu Xin Education,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/METXW\">Meten Edtechx Education Group Ltd</a>C/Wts 31/03/2025 (To Pur Com), The amplitudes were 27.34%, 26.38% and 25.40%, respectively.</p><p>Together EdTech Company Profile: Together EdTech Group, Inc. is an online tutoring company. It is an ed-tech company that provides data-driven instruction, learning, and assessment products to teachers, students, and parents in K-12+ schools.</p><p>(The above contents are optional stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The machine writer Money Call is completed. It is only used as a reference for users to read the market, not as a basis for transactions.)</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108042223407e7368bf&s=b\">自选股智能写手</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"YQ":"一起教育科技"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108042223407e7368bf&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2157835104","content_text":"北京时间2021年08月04日22时23分，一起教育科技（YQ.us）股票出现异动，股价大幅拉升5.09%。截至发稿，该股报1.20美元/股，成交量87.7922万股，换手率0.46%，振幅5.26%。最近的财报数据显示，该股实现营业收入73.19百万美元，净利润-1.02亿美元，每股收益-0.21美元，毛利44.24百万美元，市盈率-0.33倍。机构评级方面，在所有2家参与评级的机构中，100%的券商给予卖出建议，无券商给予买入、持有建议。一起教育科技股票所在的教育服务行业中，整体跌幅为0.33%。其相关个股中，美联国际教育集团、瑞思教育、朴新教育涨幅较大，美联国际教育集团、朴新教育、无忧英语较为活跃，换手率分别为9.49%、4.66%、1.98%，振幅较大的相关个股有尚德机构、朴新教育、Meten Edtechx Education Group Ltd C/Wts 31/03/2025(To Pur Com)，振幅分别为27.34%、26.38%、25.40%。一起教育科技公司简介：一起教育科技集团公司是一家在线辅导公司。 这是一家教育技术公司，向K-12以上学校的老师，学生和家长提供数据驱动的教学，学习和评估产品。（以上内容为自选股智能机器写手Money Call完成，仅作为用户看盘参考，不作为交易依据。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YQ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095438497,"gmtCreate":1644971298275,"gmtModify":1676533981259,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😎","listText":"😎","text":"😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095438497","repostId":"1149078738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149078738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644971046,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149078738?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-16 08:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With $5.519 billion in net income, Tesla is becoming a money-making machine","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149078738","media":"砺石商业评论","summary":"砺石导言：新车销售毛利率的持续提升以及营业利润的大幅改善，让市场对特斯拉造血能力不足的质疑彻底消失。业绩新高，电动车可以更赚钱前不久，特斯拉公布了2021年第四季度以及2021年全年财报。财报显示，第","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction to the stone:</b>The continuous improvement in gross profit margin of new vehicle sales and the substantial improvement in operating profit have made the market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The question of insufficient hematopoietic capacity disappeared completely.<b>New high performance, electric cars can be more profitable</b></p><p>Not long ago, Tesla announced its fourth quarter 2021 and full year 2021 financial results. According to the financial report, in the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 308,700 new cars, up 70.8% year-on-year and 27.9% month-on-month, setting another record high. For all of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles worldwide, up 87% year-on-year.</p><p>The Chinese market is key to Tesla's continued surge in new car sales. By region, in 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 235%, accounting for more than half of Tesla's total global deliveries, which is already close to Tesla's global deliveries in 2020 (499,600 vehicles).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a723eb5132209f79910b6281d965f676\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Benefiting from the substantial increase in new vehicle deliveries, Tesla's total revenue reached US$17.72 billion in the fourth quarter, up 65% year-on-year, and its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US$2.321 billion, up 760% year-on-year and 43% quarter-on-quarter, setting the highest quarterly operating margin for an OEM.</p><p>From the full-year data of 2021, Tesla's total operating income reached US$53.823 billion, compared with US$31.536 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 71%; Net income was $5.519 billion, compared to $721 million in 2020, up 665% year-over-year.</p><p>In addition, due to local procurement and manufacturing in China, the production cost of a single piece of new vehicles in Tesla's Shanghai factory was significantly reduced, which led to the further improvement of gross profit margin of Tesla's vehicle sales. According to the financial report data, Tesla's gross profit margin was 27.4% in the fourth quarter, of which the gross profit margin of a single bicycle reached 30.6%, continuing to increase by 0.1 percentage points compared with the third quarter.</p><p>Compared with its peers, Tesla's gross profit margin of 30% of its vehicle business stands out from the crowd. The data shows that the gross profit margin of global mainstream car companies such as Toyota and Volkswagen is usually less than 20%, while the gross profit margin of some car companies is only maintained at about 10%. In addition, considering the pressure of raw material costs and the tense supply chain faced by the entire automobile industry, the continuous improvement of Tesla's gross profit margin is even more extraordinary.</p><p>In this regard, Tesla said in its financial report that in the fourth quarter, the company achieved an operating profit of $2.6 billion, with an operating profit margin of 14.7%, the highest among mass-produced car companies, \"which means that there is no longer any doubt about the feasibility and profitability of electric vehicles, proving that electric vehicles are more profitable than gasoline vehicles\".</p><p>In terms of business, Tesla's vehicle sales business achieved revenue of US$44.125 billion in 2021, representing a year-on-year increase of 79%, accounting for 81.98% of revenue; The revenue from selling points was US$1.465 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7%, accounting for 2.72% of the revenue; Car rental achieved revenue of US$1.642 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%, accounting for 3.05% of revenue; Revenue from services and other businesses amounted to US$3,802 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 65%, accounting for 7.06% of revenue; In addition, the company's energy business achieved revenue of US$2.789 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, accounting for 5.18% of revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cd413ead9b72bf2f0fd9ba5d72ba34c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that Tesla's vehicle business is still at a loss in 2020. According to the data, in 2020, Tesla's points sales revenue was USD 1.6 billion, and its net profit was USD 721 million. The two phases were deducted, indicating that Tesla's bicycle business was still at a loss, which also made Tesla once questioned by its insufficient hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The announcement of the 2021 financial report finally made Tesla completely take off the hat of \"selling carbon\". Musk's first principles are also strongly supported by Tesla's financial report data.</p><p><b>Musk believes that the first principles way of thinking is a way of seeing the world, peeling off the appearance of things layer by layer until you see the essence of things, and then starting from the essence to find the fundamental solution.</b>The reason why Tesla bet on the pure electric route in the early days is that it saw the potential of battery performance improvement and the comparative advantage of modular production of electric vehicles, and drew the important conclusion that \"electric vehicles will have higher performance and lower price than fuel vehicles\".</p><p>In addition to the cost advantage brought by the localized procurement of Shanghai Gigafactory, the scale effect is another key factor in Tesla's profitability jump. Due to the obvious economies of scale characteristics of the automotive industry, the steady increase of Tesla's gross profit margin is closely related to the continuous expansion of its production capacity. Tesla achieved a production efficiency of more than 1.22 million vehicles per year in the fourth quarter, setting a new record, according to the data.</p><p>However, Tesla also admitted at the earnings report conference that the company will still face challenges from global supply chain, logistics and transportation, labor and other aspects in 2022. Therefore, expanding production capacity and boosting sales will be Tesla's main tasks this year. To that end, Tesla will continue the selection of a new Gigafactory site on the basis of improving the efficiency of the original four factory capacity, and will not launch any new models in 2022.</p><p><b>Capacity comes first, no new models will be released</b></p><p>As of now, Tesla has four EV production plants in California, Shanghai, China, Berlin, Germany and Texas, USA. Among them, the Fremont plant in California plans to produce 500,000 Model 3/Y models and 100,000 Model S/X models, mainly for the North American market. Tesla said in its fourth-quarter earnings report that the Fremont plant achieved record production in 2021 and believes the capacity of the Fremont plant has the potential to exceed 600,000 vehicles per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eea238b86dc4c9acf97b4c91afd77852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Shanghai Gigafactory mainly produces two main sales models, Model 3 and Model Y, and is also Tesla's main export center. In 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, of which more than 160,000 were exported to more than 10 countries in the Eurasian region.</p><p>Up to now, Tesla has built Shanghai Gigafactory, Shanghai Super Charging Pile Factory, Shanghai R&D Innovation Center and Data Center in Shanghai. At the same time, the localization rate of components in Shanghai Gigafactory has exceeded 90%, and the Model 3 and Model Y models can share 75% of the components.</p><p>According to the information disclosed in the fourth quarter financial report, Tesla's Berlin factory in Germany and Texas factory in the United States have entered the equipment test state from the state under construction. According to the plan, the Austin factory in Texas will be the first to produce the Model Y, followed by the Cybertruck, Tesla Semi and other models; The Berlin Gigafactory, which is designed to have a capacity of 500,000 vehicles, has already begun preparations for mass production of the Model Y, and Tesla's European website has also updated the expected delivery time in sync, which is March 2022.</p><p>The market generally expects that Tesla's production capacity is expected to exceed 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. With the commissioning of the Berlin factory in Germany and the Texas factory in the United States, Tesla's production capacity will exceed 3 million vehicles, which will effectively ensure the achievement of Tesla's annual sales growth rate of 50%. By then, Tesla will likely achieve tens of billions of dollars in net profit and become a real money-making machine. In addition, Musk also said on the conference call that Tesla is looking for a new factory location.</p><p>Judging from the existing production capacity planning, Tesla has focused on the SEXY family, while the progress of the three projects of electric pickup truck (Cybertruck), electric truck (Semi) and super sports car (Roadster) is still miss the market expectation.</p><p>According to the data, Tesla held the first Cybertruck conference as early as November 2019, and at that time, people were shocked by its subversive appearance. Cybertruck was thus called the \"most science fiction\" electric pickup truck in history. On the day after the launch, the Cybertruck received 146,000 orders.</p><p>However, the Cybertruck, which started well, suffered a production crisis, and Tesla repeatedly delayed its production and delivery plans. As of now, the Tesla Cybertruck has received more than 1.2 million orders, but there is still no firm delivery date.</p><p>Mass production of the Cybertruck had to be delayed due to supply chain issues, especially chip shortages, Musk said at the earnings conference. In addition, a large number of cutting-edge technologies applied to Cybertruck are also a major reason for limiting its production capacity at present.</p><p>Another new arrival that has repeatedly jumped tickets is the electric truck Semi. The electric truck, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2019, did not achieve its first 15 new vehicle deliveries until January this year.</p><p>For the specific production timing of the Cybertruck, Semi, and the sports car Roadster, Musk only said \"hopefully next year (2023) can.\"</p><p>\"If we do introduce an additional product, it requires a lot of attention and resource commitment to the complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. This year, too. Therefore, we're not launching new models this year\", Musk said.</p><p>Iron Man's statement may make many people feel regretful, but from the perspective of the main contradiction, Tesla's main contradiction at present is obviously the pressure of new car delivery caused by insufficient production capacity, and the launch of new models is not conducive to the solution of this contradiction. Expanding production capacity is Tesla's top priority.</p><p>This means that the previously rumored $25,000 Tesla cheap Model \"Model 2\" will not appear.</p><p><b>Can fully autonomous driving land after repeated ticket skipping?</b></p><p>In fact, compared with the introduction of new models, Musk pays more attention to the implementation of autonomous driving technology.</p><p>When asked by investors about the production plan for the $25,000 model, Musk not only said that there is no current development plan related to the $25,000 model, but even thought that \"the question itself is wrong.\" At the same time, Musk believes that compared with deliberately developing a $25,000 car, FSD fully autonomous driving software is what really matters to Tesla. \"When the car realizes autonomous driving, this will reduce transportation costs by 4-5 times\".</p><p>What should be seen is that as traditional fuel vehicle companies accelerate their transformation to electrification, Tesla's first-mover advantage in the electric field is being weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Autonomous driving technology is undoubtedly a key factor in its continued leadership among its peers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bde58ec7e464cc95aacda14938e9ffa\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Full Self-Driving (FSD) is an advanced driver assistance package on Tesla vehicles that includes autonomous Driving and other more sophisticated features such as automatic lane change, stop light recognition, and \"smart summoning\".</p><p>One concept corresponding to the FSD is the Tesla \"Autopilot,\" which is also the standard suite of driver assistance on new Tesla vehicles, with features such as autonomous emergency braking, forward collision warning, lane keeping, and adaptive cruise control.</p><p>In contrast, although the standard \"Autopilot\" is called \"automatic assistance system\", the key point is \"assistance\", while the key point of FSD lies in \"fully autonomous driving\". According to the classification standard of autonomous driving, Autopilot is equivalent to L2 level, and FSD is equivalent to L4 level.</p><p>According to the latest charging standard, from January 17th this year, the price of FSD for fully autonomous driving system for customers in the United States will be raised from $10,000 to $12,000. Plus, Tesla owners can also subscribe to the FSD feature on a monthly basis for $199/month.</p><p>However, although Musk himself has repeatedly said that FSD will solve the problem of autonomous driving L4, I'm afraid FSD is still a certain distance away from \"fully autonomous driving\".</p><p>According to the data, as early as the end of 2018, Musk announced that its \"fully autonomous driving technology\" would be realized in 2019.</p><p>Since then, Musk said at Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting in June 2019 that Tesla users can use the autonomous driving function without human intervention sometime in 2020. However, all models produced after October 2016 only need to replace the autonomous driving chip to realize the full autonomous driving function.</p><p>In 2020, Tesla launched the FSD Beta version with full autonomous driving testing capabilities for urban roads. According to the regulations, only drivers who have purchased or subscribed to an FSD and have scored high on Tesla's safety tests can currently qualify for the trial.</p><p>However, the much-anticipated \"fully autonomous driving\" has yet to materialize. On the contrary, Tesla has encountered many criticisms because of frequent self-driving safety accidents. In August 2021, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) formally launched an investigation into Tesla's Autopilot system.</p><p>Despite repeated ticket jumps and a deep crisis of confidence in safety, Tesla's self-driving technology remains undiminished in its appeal to consumers. According to the data, there are now nearly 60,000 vehicles equipped with FSD test version in the United States, compared with only a few thousand in the third quarter of last year.</p><p>With the sales and subscription of FSD kit, Tesla took the lead in \"software charging\". For the full year of 2021, Tesla's services and other businesses, including autonomous driving software, achieved operating income of $3.802 billion, an increase of 65%. This has also attracted domestic XPeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>And other new car companies have started to try software revenue.</p><p>\"Over time, FSD will become the most important part of Tesla's revenue stream. My personal prediction is to achieve FSD this year, and it will be significantly safer than people driving. Tesla's cars can achieve FSD through software upgrades, which will break the car's attributes as a consumer product and have the possibility of continued appreciation. In addition, the realization of FSD will also have a huge impact on improving security and accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. \"</p><p>As mentioned above, Musk once again made optimistic expectations for the technical landing of FSD. In the future, with the continuous improvement of FSD option rate and price, software revenue will become an important source of revenue for Tesla, which also means major changes in its business model and further improvement of profitability.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since FSD achieves full self-development, Tesla will receive 100% of its sales revenue without having to like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It is also shared with software developers, which brings more imagination to Tesla's software charges.</p><p>Just, will Tesla's FSD still jump this year?</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571105524917","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With $5.519 billion in net income, Tesla is becoming a money-making machine</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith $5.519 billion in net income, Tesla is becoming a money-making machine\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">砺石商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-16 08:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction to the stone:</b>The continuous improvement in gross profit margin of new vehicle sales and the substantial improvement in operating profit have made the market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The question of insufficient hematopoietic capacity disappeared completely.<b>New high performance, electric cars can be more profitable</b></p><p>Not long ago, Tesla announced its fourth quarter 2021 and full year 2021 financial results. According to the financial report, in the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 308,700 new cars, up 70.8% year-on-year and 27.9% month-on-month, setting another record high. For all of 2021, Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles worldwide, up 87% year-on-year.</p><p>The Chinese market is key to Tesla's continued surge in new car sales. By region, in 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 235%, accounting for more than half of Tesla's total global deliveries, which is already close to Tesla's global deliveries in 2020 (499,600 vehicles).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a723eb5132209f79910b6281d965f676\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Benefiting from the substantial increase in new vehicle deliveries, Tesla's total revenue reached US$17.72 billion in the fourth quarter, up 65% year-on-year, and its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US$2.321 billion, up 760% year-on-year and 43% quarter-on-quarter, setting the highest quarterly operating margin for an OEM.</p><p>From the full-year data of 2021, Tesla's total operating income reached US$53.823 billion, compared with US$31.536 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 71%; Net income was $5.519 billion, compared to $721 million in 2020, up 665% year-over-year.</p><p>In addition, due to local procurement and manufacturing in China, the production cost of a single piece of new vehicles in Tesla's Shanghai factory was significantly reduced, which led to the further improvement of gross profit margin of Tesla's vehicle sales. According to the financial report data, Tesla's gross profit margin was 27.4% in the fourth quarter, of which the gross profit margin of a single bicycle reached 30.6%, continuing to increase by 0.1 percentage points compared with the third quarter.</p><p>Compared with its peers, Tesla's gross profit margin of 30% of its vehicle business stands out from the crowd. The data shows that the gross profit margin of global mainstream car companies such as Toyota and Volkswagen is usually less than 20%, while the gross profit margin of some car companies is only maintained at about 10%. In addition, considering the pressure of raw material costs and the tense supply chain faced by the entire automobile industry, the continuous improvement of Tesla's gross profit margin is even more extraordinary.</p><p>In this regard, Tesla said in its financial report that in the fourth quarter, the company achieved an operating profit of $2.6 billion, with an operating profit margin of 14.7%, the highest among mass-produced car companies, \"which means that there is no longer any doubt about the feasibility and profitability of electric vehicles, proving that electric vehicles are more profitable than gasoline vehicles\".</p><p>In terms of business, Tesla's vehicle sales business achieved revenue of US$44.125 billion in 2021, representing a year-on-year increase of 79%, accounting for 81.98% of revenue; The revenue from selling points was US$1.465 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7%, accounting for 2.72% of the revenue; Car rental achieved revenue of US$1.642 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%, accounting for 3.05% of revenue; Revenue from services and other businesses amounted to US$3,802 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 65%, accounting for 7.06% of revenue; In addition, the company's energy business achieved revenue of US$2.789 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, accounting for 5.18% of revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cd413ead9b72bf2f0fd9ba5d72ba34c\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that Tesla's vehicle business is still at a loss in 2020. According to the data, in 2020, Tesla's points sales revenue was USD 1.6 billion, and its net profit was USD 721 million. The two phases were deducted, indicating that Tesla's bicycle business was still at a loss, which also made Tesla once questioned by its insufficient hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The announcement of the 2021 financial report finally made Tesla completely take off the hat of \"selling carbon\". Musk's first principles are also strongly supported by Tesla's financial report data.</p><p><b>Musk believes that the first principles way of thinking is a way of seeing the world, peeling off the appearance of things layer by layer until you see the essence of things, and then starting from the essence to find the fundamental solution.</b>The reason why Tesla bet on the pure electric route in the early days is that it saw the potential of battery performance improvement and the comparative advantage of modular production of electric vehicles, and drew the important conclusion that \"electric vehicles will have higher performance and lower price than fuel vehicles\".</p><p>In addition to the cost advantage brought by the localized procurement of Shanghai Gigafactory, the scale effect is another key factor in Tesla's profitability jump. Due to the obvious economies of scale characteristics of the automotive industry, the steady increase of Tesla's gross profit margin is closely related to the continuous expansion of its production capacity. Tesla achieved a production efficiency of more than 1.22 million vehicles per year in the fourth quarter, setting a new record, according to the data.</p><p>However, Tesla also admitted at the earnings report conference that the company will still face challenges from global supply chain, logistics and transportation, labor and other aspects in 2022. Therefore, expanding production capacity and boosting sales will be Tesla's main tasks this year. To that end, Tesla will continue the selection of a new Gigafactory site on the basis of improving the efficiency of the original four factory capacity, and will not launch any new models in 2022.</p><p><b>Capacity comes first, no new models will be released</b></p><p>As of now, Tesla has four EV production plants in California, Shanghai, China, Berlin, Germany and Texas, USA. Among them, the Fremont plant in California plans to produce 500,000 Model 3/Y models and 100,000 Model S/X models, mainly for the North American market. Tesla said in its fourth-quarter earnings report that the Fremont plant achieved record production in 2021 and believes the capacity of the Fremont plant has the potential to exceed 600,000 vehicles per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eea238b86dc4c9acf97b4c91afd77852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Shanghai Gigafactory mainly produces two main sales models, Model 3 and Model Y, and is also Tesla's main export center. In 2021, Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,100 vehicles, of which more than 160,000 were exported to more than 10 countries in the Eurasian region.</p><p>Up to now, Tesla has built Shanghai Gigafactory, Shanghai Super Charging Pile Factory, Shanghai R&D Innovation Center and Data Center in Shanghai. At the same time, the localization rate of components in Shanghai Gigafactory has exceeded 90%, and the Model 3 and Model Y models can share 75% of the components.</p><p>According to the information disclosed in the fourth quarter financial report, Tesla's Berlin factory in Germany and Texas factory in the United States have entered the equipment test state from the state under construction. According to the plan, the Austin factory in Texas will be the first to produce the Model Y, followed by the Cybertruck, Tesla Semi and other models; The Berlin Gigafactory, which is designed to have a capacity of 500,000 vehicles, has already begun preparations for mass production of the Model Y, and Tesla's European website has also updated the expected delivery time in sync, which is March 2022.</p><p>The market generally expects that Tesla's production capacity is expected to exceed 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. With the commissioning of the Berlin factory in Germany and the Texas factory in the United States, Tesla's production capacity will exceed 3 million vehicles, which will effectively ensure the achievement of Tesla's annual sales growth rate of 50%. By then, Tesla will likely achieve tens of billions of dollars in net profit and become a real money-making machine. In addition, Musk also said on the conference call that Tesla is looking for a new factory location.</p><p>Judging from the existing production capacity planning, Tesla has focused on the SEXY family, while the progress of the three projects of electric pickup truck (Cybertruck), electric truck (Semi) and super sports car (Roadster) is still miss the market expectation.</p><p>According to the data, Tesla held the first Cybertruck conference as early as November 2019, and at that time, people were shocked by its subversive appearance. Cybertruck was thus called the \"most science fiction\" electric pickup truck in history. On the day after the launch, the Cybertruck received 146,000 orders.</p><p>However, the Cybertruck, which started well, suffered a production crisis, and Tesla repeatedly delayed its production and delivery plans. As of now, the Tesla Cybertruck has received more than 1.2 million orders, but there is still no firm delivery date.</p><p>Mass production of the Cybertruck had to be delayed due to supply chain issues, especially chip shortages, Musk said at the earnings conference. In addition, a large number of cutting-edge technologies applied to Cybertruck are also a major reason for limiting its production capacity at present.</p><p>Another new arrival that has repeatedly jumped tickets is the electric truck Semi. The electric truck, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2019, did not achieve its first 15 new vehicle deliveries until January this year.</p><p>For the specific production timing of the Cybertruck, Semi, and the sports car Roadster, Musk only said \"hopefully next year (2023) can.\"</p><p>\"If we do introduce an additional product, it requires a lot of attention and resource commitment to the complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. This year, too. Therefore, we're not launching new models this year\", Musk said.</p><p>Iron Man's statement may make many people feel regretful, but from the perspective of the main contradiction, Tesla's main contradiction at present is obviously the pressure of new car delivery caused by insufficient production capacity, and the launch of new models is not conducive to the solution of this contradiction. Expanding production capacity is Tesla's top priority.</p><p>This means that the previously rumored $25,000 Tesla cheap Model \"Model 2\" will not appear.</p><p><b>Can fully autonomous driving land after repeated ticket skipping?</b></p><p>In fact, compared with the introduction of new models, Musk pays more attention to the implementation of autonomous driving technology.</p><p>When asked by investors about the production plan for the $25,000 model, Musk not only said that there is no current development plan related to the $25,000 model, but even thought that \"the question itself is wrong.\" At the same time, Musk believes that compared with deliberately developing a $25,000 car, FSD fully autonomous driving software is what really matters to Tesla. \"When the car realizes autonomous driving, this will reduce transportation costs by 4-5 times\".</p><p>What should be seen is that as traditional fuel vehicle companies accelerate their transformation to electrification, Tesla's first-mover advantage in the electric field is being weakened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Autonomous driving technology is undoubtedly a key factor in its continued leadership among its peers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bde58ec7e464cc95aacda14938e9ffa\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Full Self-Driving (FSD) is an advanced driver assistance package on Tesla vehicles that includes autonomous Driving and other more sophisticated features such as automatic lane change, stop light recognition, and \"smart summoning\".</p><p>One concept corresponding to the FSD is the Tesla \"Autopilot,\" which is also the standard suite of driver assistance on new Tesla vehicles, with features such as autonomous emergency braking, forward collision warning, lane keeping, and adaptive cruise control.</p><p>In contrast, although the standard \"Autopilot\" is called \"automatic assistance system\", the key point is \"assistance\", while the key point of FSD lies in \"fully autonomous driving\". According to the classification standard of autonomous driving, Autopilot is equivalent to L2 level, and FSD is equivalent to L4 level.</p><p>According to the latest charging standard, from January 17th this year, the price of FSD for fully autonomous driving system for customers in the United States will be raised from $10,000 to $12,000. Plus, Tesla owners can also subscribe to the FSD feature on a monthly basis for $199/month.</p><p>However, although Musk himself has repeatedly said that FSD will solve the problem of autonomous driving L4, I'm afraid FSD is still a certain distance away from \"fully autonomous driving\".</p><p>According to the data, as early as the end of 2018, Musk announced that its \"fully autonomous driving technology\" would be realized in 2019.</p><p>Since then, Musk said at Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting in June 2019 that Tesla users can use the autonomous driving function without human intervention sometime in 2020. However, all models produced after October 2016 only need to replace the autonomous driving chip to realize the full autonomous driving function.</p><p>In 2020, Tesla launched the FSD Beta version with full autonomous driving testing capabilities for urban roads. According to the regulations, only drivers who have purchased or subscribed to an FSD and have scored high on Tesla's safety tests can currently qualify for the trial.</p><p>However, the much-anticipated \"fully autonomous driving\" has yet to materialize. On the contrary, Tesla has encountered many criticisms because of frequent self-driving safety accidents. In August 2021, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) formally launched an investigation into Tesla's Autopilot system.</p><p>Despite repeated ticket jumps and a deep crisis of confidence in safety, Tesla's self-driving technology remains undiminished in its appeal to consumers. According to the data, there are now nearly 60,000 vehicles equipped with FSD test version in the United States, compared with only a few thousand in the third quarter of last year.</p><p>With the sales and subscription of FSD kit, Tesla took the lead in \"software charging\". For the full year of 2021, Tesla's services and other businesses, including autonomous driving software, achieved operating income of $3.802 billion, an increase of 65%. This has also attracted domestic XPeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>And other new car companies have started to try software revenue.</p><p>\"Over time, FSD will become the most important part of Tesla's revenue stream. My personal prediction is to achieve FSD this year, and it will be significantly safer than people driving. Tesla's cars can achieve FSD through software upgrades, which will break the car's attributes as a consumer product and have the possibility of continued appreciation. In addition, the realization of FSD will also have a huge impact on improving security and accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. \"</p><p>As mentioned above, Musk once again made optimistic expectations for the technical landing of FSD. In the future, with the continuous improvement of FSD option rate and price, software revenue will become an important source of revenue for Tesla, which also means major changes in its business model and further improvement of profitability.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since FSD achieves full self-development, Tesla will receive 100% of its sales revenue without having to like<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It is also shared with software developers, which brings more imagination to Tesla's software charges.</p><p>Just, will Tesla's FSD still jump this year?</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SCEkJCJ7_1JWA29FvHmPSQ\">砺石商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SCEkJCJ7_1JWA29FvHmPSQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149078738","content_text":"砺石导言：新车销售毛利率的持续提升以及营业利润的大幅改善，让市场对特斯拉造血能力不足的质疑彻底消失。业绩新高，电动车可以更赚钱前不久，特斯拉公布了2021年第四季度以及2021年全年财报。财报显示，第四季度，特斯拉新车交付量为30.87万辆，同比增长70.8%，环比增长27.9%，再创历史新高。2021年全年，特斯拉在全球交付936200辆车，同比增长87%。中国市场成为特斯拉新车销量持续飙升的关键。按地区统计，2021年全年，上海超级工厂共交付48.41万辆，同比增长235%，占特斯拉全球总交付量的一半以上，这一数字已经接近2020年特斯拉全球交付量（49.96万辆）。受益于新车交付量的大幅增长，四季度特斯拉总营收达到177.2亿美元，同比增长65%，实现归属于普通股东的净利润为23.21亿美元，同比增长760%，环比增长43%，创下整车厂最高的季度营业利润率。从2021年全年数据看，特斯拉营业总收入达到538.23亿美元，2020年为315.36亿美元，同比增长71%；净利润55.19亿美元，2020年为7.21亿美元，同比增长665%。另外，由于在中国本土进行采购和制造，特斯拉上海工厂新车的单件生产成本得以显著下降，这带动了特斯拉整车销售毛利率的进一步提升。财报数据显示，第四季度特斯拉毛利率为27.4%，其中单车毛利率达到30.6%，较第三季度继续提升0.1个百分点。对比同行看，特斯拉整车业务高达30%的毛利率水平可谓鹤立鸡群。数据显示，丰田、大众等全球主流车企的毛利率通常低于20%，部分车企毛利率仅维持在10%左右。此外，考虑到整个汽车行业所面临的原材料成本压力及供应链紧张态势，特斯拉毛利率的持续提升更显不凡。对此，特斯拉在财报中表示，四季度公司实现26亿美元运营利润，营业利润率达14.7%，为量产车企中最高，“意味着电动汽车的可行性和盈利能力不再有任何疑问，证明了电动汽车比汽油车盈利能力更强”。分业务来看，2021年特斯拉汽车销售业务实现营收441.25亿美元，同比增长79%，收入占比为81.98%；卖积分收入为14.65亿美元，同比减少7%，收入占比为2.72%；汽车租赁实现营收16.42亿美元，同比增长56%，收入占比为3.05%；服务及其他业务收入为38.02亿美元，同比增长65%，收入占比为7.06%；此外，公司能源业务实现营收27.89亿美元，同比增长40%，收入占比为5.18%。值得一提的是，2020年度特斯拉整车业务仍处于亏损状态。数据显示，2020年特斯拉积分销售收入为16亿美元，净利润为7.21亿美元，两相扣除，说明特斯拉单车业务仍处于亏损状态，这也让特斯拉一度遭到造血能力不足的质疑。2021年财报的公布，总算让特斯拉彻底摘掉了“卖碳翁”的帽子。马斯克的第一性原理，也得到了特斯拉财报数据的有力支持。马斯克认为，第一性原理的思维方式是一种看待世界的方式，一层一层剥开事情的表象，直到看到事物的本质，然后从本质出发去寻找根本解。特斯拉早期之所以押注纯电路线，就是看到了电池性能改进潜力和电动汽车模块化生产的相对优势，得出“电动汽车将比燃油车具有更高的性能和更低的价格”这一重要结论。除了上海超级工厂本土化采购所带来的成本优势外，规模效应也是特斯拉盈利能力跃升的又一关键因素。由于汽车行业存在明显的规模经济特征，特斯拉毛利润率的节节攀升与其产能的持续扩充密切相关。数据显示，特斯拉在第四季度实现了超过122万辆年产能的生产效率，创下新的纪录。不过，特斯拉也在财报会议上坦陈，2022年公司仍将面临来自全球供应链、物流运输、劳动力等多方面的挑战。因此，扩大产能和提升销量将是特斯拉今年的主要任务。为此，特斯拉将在提高原有四个工厂产能效率的基础上，继续进行新的超级工厂选址，并且2022年不会推出任何新车型。产能至上，不会发布任何新车型截至目前，特斯拉分别在美国加州、中国上海、德国柏林以及美国德州拥有四座电动车生产工厂。其中，位于加州的弗里蒙特工厂计划产量包括50万台Model 3/Y车型和10万台Model S/X车型，主要面向北美市场。特斯拉在四季度财报中表示，弗里蒙特工厂在2021年实现了创纪录的产量，相信弗里蒙特工厂的产能有潜力超过每年60万辆。上海超级工厂主要生产Model 3和Model Y两款主销车型，也是特斯拉主要的出口中心。2021年全年，上海超级工厂共交付车辆48.41万辆，其中超过16万辆出口到欧亚地区10多个国家。截至目前，特斯拉已在上海建成上海超级工厂、上海超级充电桩工厂、上海研发创新中心和数据中心。同时，上海超级工厂零部件本地化率也已经超过90%，Model 3和Model Y两款车型可共享75%的零部件。根据四季度财报所披露的信息，特斯拉德国柏林工厂和美国德州工厂已经由建设中状态进入设备测试状态。根据规划，德州奥斯汀工厂将率先生产Model Y，之后再生产Cybertruck、Tesla Semi等车型；柏林超级工厂设计产能为50万辆，目前已经开始筹备Model Y的大规模生产，特斯拉的欧洲网站也同步更新了交付预期时间，时间为2022年3月。市场普遍预计，2022年特斯拉产能有望突破150万辆，随着德国柏林工厂和美国德州工厂的投产，特斯拉产能将会突破300万辆，这将有效保障特斯拉年销量增速50%这一目标的达成。届时，特斯拉将很有可能实现数百亿美元的净利润，成为真正的赚钱机器。此外，马斯克还在电话会议上表示，特斯拉正在寻找新的工厂位置。从现有产能规划上看，特斯拉把主要精力放在了SEXY家族之上，而电动皮卡（Cybertruck）、电动卡车（Semi）、超级跑车（Roadster）三个项目进展依旧不及市场预期。资料显示，特斯拉早在2019年11月就召开了第一次Cybertruck的发布会，而当时人们就被它颠覆性的外观所震撼，Cybertruck由此被称为史上“最科幻”的电动皮卡。在发布会次日，Cybertruck就获得了14.6万份订单。然而，开局良好的Cybertruck却遭遇到量产危机，特斯拉一再推迟其生产及交付计划。截至目前，特斯拉Cybertruck已经拿到了超过120万辆订单，但仍未有确定交付日期。马斯克在财报会议上表示，由于供应链问题，尤其是芯片短缺，Cybertruck的量产不得不推迟。另外，应用于Cybertruck上面的大量前沿技术，也是目前限制其产能的一个主要原因。另一款一再跳票的新品是电动卡车Semi。这款原定于2019年投产的电动卡车直到今年1月才实现了首批15辆的新车交付。对于Cybertruck、Semi以及跑车Roadster的具体量产时间，马斯克只说了“希望明年（2023年）可以”。“如果我们真的引入了一个额外的产品，那么就需要对额外产品的复杂性进行大量的关注和资源投入，从而导致实际交付的车辆数量减少。今年也是如此。因此，我们今年不会推出新车型”，马斯克表示。钢铁侠的这一表态或许让不少人感到遗憾，但从主要矛盾角度来看，特斯拉目前的主要矛盾显然是产能不足所带来的新车交付压力，而新车型的推出并无益于这一矛盾的解决，扩大产能才是特斯拉的首要任务。这就意味着，此前传言中的2.5万美元的特斯拉廉价车型“Model 2”将不会出现。屡次跳票，完全自动驾驶能否落地？实际上，相比新车型的推出，马斯克更加看重自动驾驶技术的落地。在被投资者问及2.5万美元车型生产计划时，马斯克不仅表示目前没有2.5万美元车型相关开发计划，甚至认为“这个问题本身是错误的”。与此同时，马斯克认为，相比特意开发一款2.5万美元的汽车，FSD全自动驾驶软件才是对特斯拉来说真正重要的事，“汽车何时实现自动驾驶，这会使运输成本下降4-5倍”。需要看到的是，随着传统燃油车企加速向电动化转型，特斯拉在电动领域的先发优势正在被削弱，智能化正成为其持续领先同行的关键因素，自动驾驶技术无疑又是其中的重中之重。Full Self-Driving（FSD，完全自动驾驶系统）是特斯拉汽车上的一个高级驾驶员辅助套件，其中包括了自动驾驶和其他一些更复杂的功能，如自动换道，停车灯识别，以及“智能召唤”。与FSD对应的一个概念是特斯拉“Autopilot”，这也是特斯拉新车的驾驶员自动辅助标准套件，其功能包括自动紧急制动、前方碰撞警告、车道保持和自适应巡航控制。对比来说，标配的“Autopilot”虽然叫作“自动辅助系统”，但关键点还是“辅助”，而FSD的关键点在于“完全自动驾驶”。 按照自动驾驶的分级标准，Autopilot相当于L2级别，FSD则相当于L4级别。按照最新收费标准，从今年1月17日起，美国地区客户的完全自动驾驶系统FSD价格将由1万美元上调至1.2万美元。另外，特斯拉车主还可以按月订阅FSD功能，价格为199美元/月。不过，尽管马斯克本人一再表示FSD将解决自动驾驶L4的问题，但FSD距离“完全自动驾驶”恐怕仍还有一定距离。资料显示，早在2018年底，马斯克就宣称其“全自动驾驶技术”将在2019年实现。此后，马斯克又于2019年6月在特斯拉的年度股东大会上表示，特斯拉用户可以在2020年的某个时候，可以使用上无需人工干预的自动驾驶功能。而所有2016年10月以后生产的车型，只需要更换自动驾驶芯片既可以实现全自动驾驶功能。2020年，特斯拉推出FSD Beta版本，配备城市道路完全自动驾驶测试功能。根据规定，目前只有购买或订阅了FSD，并在特斯拉的安全测试中获得高分的驾驶员，才可以获得试用资格。然而，备受期待的“完全自动驾驶”至今仍没有实现。相反，特斯拉却因为频发的自动驾驶安全事故而遭遇到诸多非议。2021年8月，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正式对特斯拉自动驾驶系统展开调查。尽管屡次跳票并深陷安全信任危机，特斯拉自动驾驶技术对消费者的吸引力依然不减。数据显示，如今美国搭载FSD测试版的车辆近6万辆，而去年三季度这一数据仅几千辆。凭借FSD套件的销售及订阅，特斯拉率先走在了“软件收费”的前列。2021年全年，特斯拉包括自动驾驶软件在内服务及其他业务实现营业收入为38.02亿美元，增加65%。这也吸引了国内小鹏、蔚来等新势力车企纷纷开启了对软件收入的尝试。“随着时间推移，FSD将会成为特斯拉收入来源的最重要部分。我的个人预测是今年实现FSD，它的安全程度将大幅度高于人们驾驶。特斯拉的车通过软件升级即可实现FSD，这将打破汽车作为消费品的属性而具有持续升值的可能性。另外，FSD的实现还将会在提升安全、加速世界向可持续能源转变方面有巨大影响。”如上所述，马斯克再一次对FSD的技术落地做出了乐观预期。未来，随着FSD选装率和价格的不断提升，软件收入将成为特斯拉重要的收入来源，这也意味着其商业模式的重大改变以及盈利能力的进一步提升。值得一提的是，由于FSD实现了完全自主开发，特斯拉将获得其100%的销售收入，而不必像苹果一样与软件开发者分成，这就给特斯拉软件收费带来了更大的想象空间。只是，今年特斯拉的FSD还会跳票吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156371826,"gmtCreate":1625199198365,"gmtModify":1703738206773,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156371826","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks are closed all day on July 5th due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on July 5th (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6th (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, British shares, Australian shares and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>Is the statutory national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4 each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. America's Independence Day is as grand as religious and folk festivals. People clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag before the festival.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115438349,"gmtCreate":1623026307981,"gmtModify":1704194457201,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115438349","repostId":"1183379079","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378595890,"gmtCreate":1619049390010,"gmtModify":1704718742911,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378595890","repostId":"1131768787","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131768787","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619049115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131768787?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 07:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks rebounded to close higher across the board, and U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131768787","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股反弹全线收涨；热门中概股收盘多数走高，新能源汽车股普涨；美油大幅收跌2.1％，创一周多新低；金价收高0.8％，创下两个月新高；美国20年期国债标售畅旺，交易商获配创恢复标售以来最低值；亚马逊","content":"<p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p>U.S. stocks rebounded and closed higher across the board; Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher, and new energy vehicle stocks generally rose; U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week; Gold closed 0.8% higher, hitting a two-month high; The auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in the United States was booming, and dealers were allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed higher across the board after falling for two consecutive days: the Nasdaq rose by more than 1%, and Netflix's earnings report fell by more than 7% far below expectations</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow up more than 300 points. Major stock indexes rebounded after falling for two consecutive days, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The market is still weighing the latest developments in the global pandemic and U.S. stock earnings. By the close, the Nasdaq was up 1.19%, the Dow was up 0.94% and the S&P 500 was up 0.93%.</p><p>Tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 3.5%, Netflix fell more than 7%. Chip stocks rallied collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Up nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher on Wednesday, and new energy vehicle stocks rose generally</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks rose generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>up 12.96%, fog core technology rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 5.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>up 4.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>up 3.24%.</p><p>3. Corporate earnings season continues European stocks closed higher across the board on Wednesday</p><p>The three major European stock indexes closed higher collectively, with Germany's DAX index rising 0.44% and France's CAC40 index rising 0.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 52%.</p><p>4. U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week!</p><p>Traders are worried that the spread of the epidemic in Asia will hurt energy demand. Official data of the United States showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly climbed last week, and the United States and Burundi continued the decline of the previous day, both closing at the lowest level in more than a week. Finally, WTIJune crude oil futures closed down $1.32, or 2.10%, at $61.35/barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed down $1.73, or 2.58%, at $65.32/barrel.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up by 0.8%, recording the second consecutive increase! Hits a new two-month high, approaches the $1,800 mark</p><p>Gold and silver fluctuated higher on Wednesday, spurred by news such as increasing infections from the more contagious coronavirus variant. COMEX June gold futures closed up 0.8% at $1,793.10/oz.</p><p>6. The 20-year Treasury Bond auction in the United States is booming, and traders are allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction</p><p>At 01: 00 on April 22nd, the U.S. Treasury held a 20-year Treasury Bond auction, with a scale of $24 billion. In terms of allocation ratio, direct buyers, including the Federal Reserve and other U.S. federal government entities, received 20.2% this time, the highest value since the resumption of auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in May last year.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Biden announced that the task of vaccinating 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been completed</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden said at a news conference that the goal of administering 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been reached, and specific data and related reports will be released tomorrow. Biden also said that more than half of adults in the United States have received at least one dose of vaccine so far, and 80% of people over 65 have received at least one dose of vaccine.</p><p>2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized that addressing climate change requires the participation of private capital</p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that tackling the \"existential threat\" posed by climate change requires not only government spending, but also private capital participation.</p><p>3. The Bank of Canada has drastically reduced the scale of bond purchases and expected that the rate hike time may be advanced</p><p>Faced with a stronger-than-expected economic rebound, the Bank of Canada turned hawkish on Wednesday, saying it would reduce asset purchases by a quarter, expecting that rate hike may be earlier.</p><p>4. Biden calls on companies to provide employees with paid leave for COVID-19 vaccination</p><p>President Joe Biden on Wednesday will announce a tax credit for employers offering vaccine-related paid leave. The White House is urging more Americans to seek COVID-19 vaccinations as vaccination rates have declined slightly in recent days.</p><p>5. Global debt reached a record high of 281 trillion USD! Is loose monetary policy the biggest risk in the market?</p><p>Jeremy Grantham warns that there is only one sensible reading of the current situation: \"The long bull market that began in 2009 has finally matured and turned into a complete, epic bubble.\"</p><p>6. International Olympic Committee: Many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19</p><p>On the 21st local time, IOC President Bach said at the press conference that many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19.</p><p>7. The presiding judge of Meng Wanzhou's extradition case ruled to postpone the trial</p><p>On April 21, local time, Judge Heather Holmes of the Superior Court of British Columbia, Canada, ruled on Meng's lawyer's request to postpone the trial, agreeing to postpone the trial until early August. The court will determine the exact schedule on April 28.</p><p>8. Supply shortages add to surging demand, U.S. car prices rise to record levels</p><p>U.S. auto prices have risen to record levels and are soaring due to bottlenecks in production capacity of car companies caused by chip shortages and a sharp increase in market demand after widespread vaccination.</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805200\" target=\"_blank\">The wind turns! SPAC boom suddenly cools heading into April, hit by new SEC accounting rules</a></p><p>According to SPAC Research, after more than 100 new transactions were completed in March, the number of SPAC listings stagnated in April, with only 10 SPAC listings generated in total.</p><p>10. IATA raised its loss forecast for the aviation industry, saying that the timetable for the reopening of global air travel was delayed</p><p>The airline industry's main lobbying group has widened its estimated figure for losses this year by about a quarter, saying new outbreaks and virus variants have pushed back the timeline for the reopening of air travel worldwide.</p><p>11. The United States proposes to lift sanctions on Iran nuclear deal negotiations make progress</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has signaled a willingness to ease restrictions on Iran's oil, finance and other industries, but Iran wants to see more concrete steps that will help narrow differences in negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129808987\" target=\"_blank\">Another High-Level Change in Tesla's Legal Department! Legal VP Prescott Announces Departure</a></p><p>Al Prescott, a longtime vice president of law and acting general counsel at Tesla, has left the electric vehicle and renewable energy company to join lidar startup Luminar.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805576\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla's financial report is imminent: frequent accidents, investigation of autonomous driving system, can performance dispel doubts?</a></p><p>Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2021 earnings after the stock market closes next Monday EST (early Tuesday morning Beijing time), and the company is now facing a situation where its advanced driver assistance system Autopilot is shrouded in clouds.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129036028\" target=\"_blank\">The third largest software industry IPO in U.S. stocks: RPA enterprise Uipath landed on NYSE IPO surged 23% on the first day</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Process automation (RPA) startup Uipath (stock symbol PATH) officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. It opened about 17% higher on the first day of its IPO, and its share price was reported at $65.50, once rising above $70 during the session. At the close, the company's shares were trading at $69, or 23.21%, giving it a market capitalization of $35.8 billion.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1103447697\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, it was reported that Amazon was considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129877113\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceX sends four astronauts to the space station on Crew-2 mission tomorrow</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, Beijing time, it is reported that SpaceX, a space exploration technology company, will carry out the \"Crew-2\" mission tomorrow, sending four astronauts to the International Space Station (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a>）。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159480880\" target=\"_blank\">Credit Suisse accumulates more than $20 billion in Archegos-related exposure</a></p><p>Sources said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Accumulating more than $20 billion in investment exposure related to ARCHEGOS, Credit Suisse's CEO and chief risk officer learned of the company's exposure days before the company's margin call. Credit Suisse struggled to monitor its exposure to ARCHEGOS until the fund closed out.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks rebounded to close higher across the board, and U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: U.S. stocks rebounded to close higher across the board, and U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-22 07:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p>U.S. stocks rebounded and closed higher across the board; Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher, and new energy vehicle stocks generally rose; U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week; Gold closed 0.8% higher, hitting a two-month high; The auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in the United States was booming, and dealers were allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed higher across the board after falling for two consecutive days: the Nasdaq rose by more than 1%, and Netflix's earnings report fell by more than 7% far below expectations</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow up more than 300 points. Major stock indexes rebounded after falling for two consecutive days, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The market is still weighing the latest developments in the global pandemic and U.S. stock earnings. By the close, the Nasdaq was up 1.19%, the Dow was up 0.94% and the S&P 500 was up 0.93%.</p><p>Tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 3.5%, Netflix fell more than 7%. Chip stocks rallied collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Up nearly 3%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks closed higher on Wednesday, and new energy vehicle stocks rose generally</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks rose generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>up 12.96%, fog core technology rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 5.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>up 4.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>up 3.24%.</p><p>3. Corporate earnings season continues European stocks closed higher across the board on Wednesday</p><p>The three major European stock indexes closed higher collectively, with Germany's DAX index rising 0.44% and France's CAC40 index rising 0.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 52%.</p><p>4. U.S. oil closed down 2.1% sharply, hitting a new low in more than a week!</p><p>Traders are worried that the spread of the epidemic in Asia will hurt energy demand. Official data of the United States showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly climbed last week, and the United States and Burundi continued the decline of the previous day, both closing at the lowest level in more than a week. Finally, WTIJune crude oil futures closed down $1.32, or 2.10%, at $61.35/barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed down $1.73, or 2.58%, at $65.32/barrel.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up by 0.8%, recording the second consecutive increase! Hits a new two-month high, approaches the $1,800 mark</p><p>Gold and silver fluctuated higher on Wednesday, spurred by news such as increasing infections from the more contagious coronavirus variant. COMEX June gold futures closed up 0.8% at $1,793.10/oz.</p><p>6. The 20-year Treasury Bond auction in the United States is booming, and traders are allocated the lowest value since the resumption of auction</p><p>At 01: 00 on April 22nd, the U.S. Treasury held a 20-year Treasury Bond auction, with a scale of $24 billion. In terms of allocation ratio, direct buyers, including the Federal Reserve and other U.S. federal government entities, received 20.2% this time, the highest value since the resumption of auction of the 20-year Treasury Bond in May last year.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Biden announced that the task of vaccinating 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been completed</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden said at a news conference that the goal of administering 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine has been reached, and specific data and related reports will be released tomorrow. Biden also said that more than half of adults in the United States have received at least one dose of vaccine so far, and 80% of people over 65 have received at least one dose of vaccine.</p><p>2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized that addressing climate change requires the participation of private capital</p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that tackling the \"existential threat\" posed by climate change requires not only government spending, but also private capital participation.</p><p>3. The Bank of Canada has drastically reduced the scale of bond purchases and expected that the rate hike time may be advanced</p><p>Faced with a stronger-than-expected economic rebound, the Bank of Canada turned hawkish on Wednesday, saying it would reduce asset purchases by a quarter, expecting that rate hike may be earlier.</p><p>4. Biden calls on companies to provide employees with paid leave for COVID-19 vaccination</p><p>President Joe Biden on Wednesday will announce a tax credit for employers offering vaccine-related paid leave. The White House is urging more Americans to seek COVID-19 vaccinations as vaccination rates have declined slightly in recent days.</p><p>5. Global debt reached a record high of 281 trillion USD! Is loose monetary policy the biggest risk in the market?</p><p>Jeremy Grantham warns that there is only one sensible reading of the current situation: \"The long bull market that began in 2009 has finally matured and turned into a complete, epic bubble.\"</p><p>6. International Olympic Committee: Many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19</p><p>On the 21st local time, IOC President Bach said at the press conference that many athletes staying in Tokyo Olympic Village will be vaccinated against COVID-19.</p><p>7. The presiding judge of Meng Wanzhou's extradition case ruled to postpone the trial</p><p>On April 21, local time, Judge Heather Holmes of the Superior Court of British Columbia, Canada, ruled on Meng's lawyer's request to postpone the trial, agreeing to postpone the trial until early August. The court will determine the exact schedule on April 28.</p><p>8. Supply shortages add to surging demand, U.S. car prices rise to record levels</p><p>U.S. auto prices have risen to record levels and are soaring due to bottlenecks in production capacity of car companies caused by chip shortages and a sharp increase in market demand after widespread vaccination.</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805200\" target=\"_blank\">The wind turns! SPAC boom suddenly cools heading into April, hit by new SEC accounting rules</a></p><p>According to SPAC Research, after more than 100 new transactions were completed in March, the number of SPAC listings stagnated in April, with only 10 SPAC listings generated in total.</p><p>10. IATA raised its loss forecast for the aviation industry, saying that the timetable for the reopening of global air travel was delayed</p><p>The airline industry's main lobbying group has widened its estimated figure for losses this year by about a quarter, saying new outbreaks and virus variants have pushed back the timeline for the reopening of air travel worldwide.</p><p>11. The United States proposes to lift sanctions on Iran nuclear deal negotiations make progress</p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has signaled a willingness to ease restrictions on Iran's oil, finance and other industries, but Iran wants to see more concrete steps that will help narrow differences in negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129808987\" target=\"_blank\">Another High-Level Change in Tesla's Legal Department! Legal VP Prescott Announces Departure</a></p><p>Al Prescott, a longtime vice president of law and acting general counsel at Tesla, has left the electric vehicle and renewable energy company to join lidar startup Luminar.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129805576\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla's financial report is imminent: frequent accidents, investigation of autonomous driving system, can performance dispel doubts?</a></p><p>Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2021 earnings after the stock market closes next Monday EST (early Tuesday morning Beijing time), and the company is now facing a situation where its advanced driver assistance system Autopilot is shrouded in clouds.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129036028\" target=\"_blank\">The third largest software industry IPO in U.S. stocks: RPA enterprise Uipath landed on NYSE IPO surged 23% on the first day</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Process automation (RPA) startup Uipath (stock symbol PATH) officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. It opened about 17% higher on the first day of its IPO, and its share price was reported at $65.50, once rising above $70 during the session. At the close, the company's shares were trading at $69, or 23.21%, giving it a market capitalization of $35.8 billion.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1103447697\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon is considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, it was reported that Amazon was considering accepting Dogecoin as a payment method.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2129877113\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceX sends four astronauts to the space station on Crew-2 mission tomorrow</a></p><p>On the evening of April 21st, Beijing time, it is reported that SpaceX, a space exploration technology company, will carry out the \"Crew-2\" mission tomorrow, sending four astronauts to the International Space Station (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a>）。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159480880\" target=\"_blank\">Credit Suisse accumulates more than $20 billion in Archegos-related exposure</a></p><p>Sources said,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Accumulating more than $20 billion in investment exposure related to ARCHEGOS, Credit Suisse's CEO and chief risk officer learned of the company's exposure days before the company's margin call. Credit Suisse struggled to monitor its exposure to ARCHEGOS until the fund closed out.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131768787","content_text":"摘要：美股反弹全线收涨；热门中概股收盘多数走高，新能源汽车股普涨；美油大幅收跌2.1％，创一周多新低；金价收高0.8％，创下两个月新高；美国20年期国债标售畅旺，交易商获配创恢复标售以来最低值；亚马逊正考虑接受狗狗币作为支付方式。海外市场1、美股连跌两日后全线收涨：纳指涨超1% 奈飞财报远逊预期跌逾7％美股周三收高，道指涨逾300点。主要股指连续两日下跌之后反弹，周期性板块领涨。市场仍在权衡全球疫情与美股财报的最新进展。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数涨1.19%，道琼斯指数涨0.94%，标普500指数涨0.93%。科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉涨3.5%，奈飞跌超7%。芯片股集体上涨，AMD涨近3%。2、热门中概股周三收盘多数走高 新能源汽车股普涨热门中概股普涨，嘉楠科技涨12.96%，雾芯科技涨超8%，蔚来汽车涨5.32%，小鹏汽车涨4.25%，理想汽车涨3.24%。3、企业财报季仍在持续 欧股周三全线收高欧洲三大股指集体收涨，德国DAX指数涨0.44%，法国CAC40指数涨0.74%，英国富时100指数涨52%。4、美油大幅收跌2.1％，创一周多新低！交易商担心亚洲疫情蔓延将伤及能源需求。美国官方数据显示上周原油库存意外攀升，美布两油延续前一日的跌势，双双收于一周多来的最低水平。最终，WTI6月原油期货收跌1.32美元，跌幅2.10%，报61.35美元/桶。布伦特6月原油期货收跌1.73美元，跌幅2.58%，报65.32美元/桶。5、金价收高0.8％，录得二连涨！创下两个月新高，逼近1800美元关口受传染性更强的新冠病毒变种感染病例正在增加等消息刺激，周三金银震荡走高。COMEX6月黄金期货收涨0.8%，报1793.10美元/盎司。6、美国20年期国债标售畅旺 交易商获配创恢复标售以来最低值4月22日01：00，美国财政部进行了20年期国债标售，本次标售规模为240亿美元。获配比例方面，美联储和其他美国联邦政府实体在内的直接购买人本次获得了20.2%，创下去年5月恢复标售20年期国债以来的最高值。国际宏观1、拜登宣布接种2亿剂新冠疫苗的任务已经完成美国总统拜登在一场新闻发布会上表示，接种2亿剂新冠疫苗的目标已经达成，具体数据和相关报告将在明天发布。拜登还表示，截至目前全美超过半数成年人接种了至少一剂疫苗，同时，65岁以上老人中有80%接种了至少一剂疫苗。2、美国财长耶伦强调应对气候变化需要民间资本参与美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦称，应对气候变化带来的“生存威胁”不仅需要政府支出，还需要民间资本参与。3、加拿大央行大幅削减购债规模 并预计加息时间可能提前面对强于预期的经济反弹势头，加拿大央行周三立场转向鹰派，称将把资产购买规模缩减四分之一，预期加息时间可能提前。4、拜登呼吁企业向员工提供带薪假用于新冠疫苗接种美国总统拜登周三将宣布，对提供疫苗相关带薪休假的雇主实行税收抵免。白宫敦促更多美国人寻求新冠肺炎疫苗接种，因最近几天疫苗接种率略有下降。5、全球债务达281万亿美元创新高！宽松货币政策成市场最大风险？格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）警告说，对当下的局面只能做出一种合理解读：“开始于2009年的漫长牛市最终进入成熟期，变身为彻头彻尾的，史诗级别的泡沫。”6、国际奥委会：入住东京奥运村的许多运动员将接种新冠疫苗当地时间21日，国际奥委会主席巴赫在发布会上表示，入住东京奥运村的许多运动员都将接种新冠疫苗。7、孟晚舟引渡案主审法官裁决延期审理当地时间4月21日，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省高等法院法官希瑟·霍尔姆斯（Heather Holmes）就孟晚舟的律师提出延期审理的请求作出裁决，同意延期到8月初审理。法庭将于4月28日确定具体的排期。8、供应短缺叠加需求暴增 美国汽车价格升至创纪录水平由于芯片短缺导致车企产能出现瓶颈，以及疫苗广泛接种后市场需求大幅提升，美国汽汽车价格升至创纪录水平，而且还在飙升。9、风水轮流转！受SEC会计新规打击，SPAC热潮进入四月突然降温根据SPAC Research的数据，在3月份完成100多宗新交易之后，4月份的SPAC上市数量却停滞不前，一共只产生了10起SPAC上市案。10、IATA上调航空业亏损预期 称全球航空旅行重新开放的时间表推迟航空业的主要游说团体将今年的亏损估计数字扩大了大约四分之一，称新的疫情爆发和病毒变种已经导致全球航空旅行重新开放的时间表推迟。11、美国提出解除制裁 伊朗核协议谈判取得进展据知情人士透露，美国总统拜登的政府表示愿意放松针对伊朗石油、金融和其他行业的限制措施，但伊朗方面希望看到更加具体的举措，这将有助于缩小谈判分歧。公司新闻1、特斯拉法务部门再次发生高层变动！法律副总裁普雷斯科特宣布离职长期担任特斯拉法律副总裁兼代理总法律顾问的阿尔·普雷斯科特已经离开这家电动汽车和可再生能源公司，加入激光雷达初创公司Luminar。2、特斯拉财报在即：事故频发、自动驾驶系统遭调查，业绩能否打消质疑？特斯拉公司定于美国东部时间下周一股市收盘后（北京时间下周二凌晨）公布2021年第一季度财报，而该公司现在面临的形势是，其先进的驾驶员辅助系统Autopilot正笼罩在阴云之中。3、美股第三大软件业IPO：RPA企业Uipath登陆纽交所 IPO首日大涨23%机器人过程自动化（RPA）初创公司Uipath（股票代码PATH）周三正式登陆纽交所，IPO首日高开约17%，股价报65.50美元，盘中一度涨破70美元。截至收盘，该公司股价报69美元，涨幅23.21%，市值358亿美元。4、亚马逊正考虑接受狗狗币作为支付方式4月21日晚间消息，据报道，亚马逊正考虑接受狗狗币作为支付方式。5、SpaceX明日执行Crew-2任务 把4名宇航员送入空间站北京时间4月21日晚间消息，据报道，太空探索技术公司SpaceX将于明日执行“Crew-2”任务，把四名宇航员送入国际空间站（ISS）。6、瑞信积累了超过200亿美元与ARCHEGOS相关的风险敞口消息人士称，瑞士信贷积累了超过200亿美元与ARCHEGOS相关的投资风险敞口，瑞信首席执行官和首席风险官在该公司追加保证金通知前几天就得知了该公司的风险敞口。在该基金平仓之前，瑞信难以监控其对ARCHEGOS的敞口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156371728,"gmtCreate":1625199215764,"gmtModify":1703738207585,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156371728","repostId":"1173124848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175300036,"gmtCreate":1627005057525,"gmtModify":1703482257122,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175300036","repostId":"1145426029","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145426029","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"界面是中国最大的商业新闻和社交平台，只服务于独立思考的人群。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"界面新闻","id":"30","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be3a47b8a80a6b0d62c8f48a7534c1af"},"pubTimestamp":1627004634,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145426029?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 09:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Louis Vuitton Announces Termination of Partnership with Kris Wu","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145426029","media":"界面新闻","summary":"@路易威登 微博7月23日发布声明称，鉴于相关通报，路易威登宣布终止与吴亦凡先生之合作关系。至此，吴亦凡所有的商务代言品牌均已发布声明终止与其合作关系。","content":"<p><div>@ Louis Vuitton Weibo issued a statement on July 23rd, saying that in view of the relevant notice, Louis Vuitton announced the termination of the cooperative relationship with Mr. Wu Yifan. So far, all of Wu Yifan's business endorsement brands have issued statements to terminate their cooperation relationships with them.</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Louis Vuitton Announces Termination of Partnership with Kris Wu</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLouis Vuitton Announces Termination of Partnership with Kris Wu\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/30\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/be3a47b8a80a6b0d62c8f48a7534c1af);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">界面新闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-23 09:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>@ Louis Vuitton Weibo issued a statement on July 23rd, saying that in view of the relevant notice, Louis Vuitton announced the termination of the cooperative relationship with Mr. Wu Yifan. So far, all of Wu Yifan's business endorsement brands have issued statements to terminate their cooperation relationships with them.</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f7117b8f61d803c2af1c8c8191ab6b","relate_stocks":{"LVMUY":"路易威登"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145426029","content_text":"@路易威登 微博7月23日发布声明称，鉴于相关通报，路易威登宣布终止与吴亦凡先生之合作关系。至此，吴亦凡所有的商务代言品牌均已发布声明终止与其合作关系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LVMUY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111526664,"gmtCreate":1622687673258,"gmtModify":1704188957085,"author":{"id":"3578562412522571","authorId":"3578562412522571","name":"劉洧綸","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac36586443a36b162393703e2f3db72a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578562412522571","authorIdStr":"3578562412522571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ?&nbsp;","listText":"Good ?&nbsp;","text":"Good ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111526664","repostId":"2140449283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140449283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622686502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2140449283?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: June or a key fork in the road, the main line of global assets or return to growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140449283","media":"中金点睛","summary":"6月或是关键岔路口：对未来政策预期和市场走向有重要影响\n回顾看，5月驱动全球资产定价的逻辑已经悄然出现一些变化。但展望6月，当前价格压力暂缓、流动性向好、利率回落、美元走弱推动市场特别是成长股领先的这","content":"<p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed. However, looking forward to June, the current price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially whether this combination of growth stocks leading the market can be sustained is a general worry in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</p><p><b>So, to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future</b>(The FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th).</p><p><b>Benchmark Judgment: Inflation Marginal Ease, Policy Holds On, Growth Becomes the Main Line Again</b></p><p>In the baseline case,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>After surviving the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month,<b>We expect the market focus to shift from prices in April and liquidity in May again to demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, a return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure.</p><p><b>Allocation strategy: Main line or return to growth from April price and May liquidity</b></p><p>From the configuration policy,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to expect to find direction and consensus</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by the rise in interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2) But if it goes through relatively smoothly as we expect,<b>The main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May, and equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window. However, the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited.</b></p><p><b>After inflation and liquidity, the main line may return to growth</b></p><p><b>— — Monthly Report on Overseas Asset Allocation (2021-6)</b></p><p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed.</b>The price pressure brought by the surge in commodities in April eased marginally with the loosening of the increase, which is consistent with our opinion in \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-5): Whether to sell in May?\" at the beginning of the month that the rise of broad-spectrum commodities is not steady, and that the follow-up performance of commodities should pay more attention to whether demand can take over rather than just supply-side premium in \"U.S. raw material inventories are close to historic highs\".<b>Marginal easing of price pressures, superimposed with a surge in dollar liquidity</b>(\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in Dollar Liquidity\"),<b>It not only promoted the downward trend of US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, but also further spilled over to other exchange rate appreciation and the outperformance of growth stocks.</b>in addition, the US stocks in May did not Sell in May that the market was worried about, but the US stocks still underperformed other major markets. Therefore, it is basically appropriate for us to slightly reduce the allocation ratio of US stocks at the beginning of the month and add it to emerging markets.</p><p><b>Chart: Price pressures from the April commodity surge have eased marginally as gains loosen</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35a357e56119369992540f35a5a53e6\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The Fed's recent use of reverse repurchases hit a record high, with reverse repurchases reaching $485.3 billion on May 27</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a35a7ee8847b13403facada770066cf7\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The three-month cross-swap of the euro, yen and pound with the dollar, which measure global dollar liquidity, also basically hit new lows since 2015</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a57b1727caf390252979ef0e6e2da86\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Looking forward to June, whether the current combination of price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially growth stocks leading, can be sustained is a general concern in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</b>Especially for such a heavy month as June (the FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th respectively).</p><p><b>So to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future:</b>If the employment and inflation pressures are obviously eased, and the Federal Reserve can continue its loose posture, then the market is expected to usher in a new round of breathing window, and the direct impact when the third quarter prompts the official reduction in the fourth quarter is also controllable; On the contrary, if inflation unexpectedly exceeds expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to take action, the market may usher in a new round of volatility. After all, it was obviously earlier than expected to prompt the start of reduction from June to July (Historical Experience and Enlightenment of QE Reduction). Therefore, compared with the so-called selling experience in May, which is actually unreliable from historical experience, if there is an accident, the potential fluctuation in June may be greater, and its impact on future policies and market trends may be greater, not only because of the extremely high correlation between stocks and bonds at present and the historically low correlation between Sino-American stock markets.</p><p><b>Chart: The current stock-bond correlation represented by the S&P 500 index and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has reached a historically high level…</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52141428681b28d3b055d5c20f3a2bbc\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: …while the current correlation between the Chinese and US stock markets handles historically relatively low levels</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d4d494b22ab1794ecb7d962cef64061\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Our benchmark judgment: Inflation marginally eases, policy stands still, growth becomes the main line again</b></p><p>Although there is a considerable possibility of surprises (the April data clearly tells us how big a bias in expectations may be at the inflection point, especially the nonlinear changes caused by the epidemic), under the baseline scenario,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>If this situation can occur, combined with the current loose liquidity state that may be maintained (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent US Dollar Liquidity Surge\"), it is expected to continue to provide a relatively good situation for equity assets and continue to support our positive view on US stocks.<b>After the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month, we expect that the market focus will shift from the price in April and the liquidity in May to the demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, it will return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure. Specifically,</p><p><b>► Growth: Offline consumption and travel demand are continuously recovering, and the number of travellers has reached a new high since the pandemic.</b>The continuous advancement of vaccination has made the opening process continue to advance. At present, 37 states in the United States have been opened, and we expect to enter a fully open state at the end of June and early July. Opening up on a wider scale means more travel and the release of offline service consumption demand, which has been clearly reflected in high-frequency indicators (for example, the number of airport TSA security trips on Memorial Day just past hit a new high since the epidemic), which in turn supports the stamina of demand in the third quarter, and may even mean the repair of the job market (we note that the unemployment rate repair in open and not fully open states is quite different).</p><p><b>Chart: Airport TSA security trips this past Memorial Day hit new high since the pandemic</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ce9d3f9ee3debfe47d14bdf4f206aa\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: At present, 37 states in the United States are fully open, and we expect to enter full opening by the end of June and early July</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6459563ed0ec3d4b758a3a5a0295a3\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking at the U.S. state unemployment rates released in April, there is a wide difference between the unemployment rates of open and not fully open states</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ea8a363027959a0705fd178a44e83\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, CEIC, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Inflation: The inflationary pressure that exceeded expectations in April came from the renewed gap between supply and demand, but this gap is expected to show marginal relief from both ends of supply and demand.</b>In late March, the consumption on the demand side after the fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion dropped from the peak, while the bottleneck on the supply side due to cold weather and lack of chips was also being repaired. In May, the local supply bottleneck has improved (the delivery time dropped from the previous month). From the perspective of the industry, the prices of used cars (supply bottleneck) and air tickets (open demand) in April greatly exceeded expectations. However, from the current high frequency, the month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly.<b>We estimate that as long as the average month-on-month growth rate does not exceed 0.2% during the year, the CPI in May will be the high point of the year.</b></p><p><b>Chart: Judging from the supplier delivery time index in the local Fed survey, the local supply bottleneck has improved in May (delivery time dropped month-on-month)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff9644c9e34d56efa233c357c69e094\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05c0285435a9aec4015ba39179b4836\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We calculate that if the monthly average month-on-month does not exceed 0.2% during the year, then the U.S. CPI year-on-year high will appear in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900bee92524289aefa65504110157c0\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In terms of industries, the prices in April greatly exceeded expectations from the previous month, mainly used cars (supply bottleneck) and airfare (open demand)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1386101b4733230ba8f136d3e569cd\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Monetary policy and dollar liquidity:</b>Under the above combination, we tend to think that the long-term recovery of the job market is still the main consideration of the Fed,<b>Therefore, the Fed is expected to remain patient,</b>Technical fine-tuning of Interest Rate Corridor is certainly not ruled out. According to the current repair speed of ~8 million employment gap, we estimate that the fourth quarter may be the window to start the reduction, while the third quarter or the Jackson Hole annual meeting in late summer may suggest the reduction, which also corresponds to the release of new consumer demand and employment after all openings.<b>Against this background, US dollar liquidity, combined with the continuous decline of the cash account of the US Treasury Department, is still expected to remain relatively loose, but we suspect that it will be further strengthened similar to that in the past period (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in US dollar liquidity\").</b></p><p><b>Chart: If both unemployment and labor participation rates are to return to pre-pandemic levels, there is still a gap of more than 8 million jobs, and it will take 10 months to recover even at the pace of March</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aceb187daa37b04c5cefcb1185ab2a95\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The U.S. Treasury's cash account plunged from 1.36 trillion in early March to the latest $812.5 billion, down nearly $550 billion</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82bc05752d2f3f3a0bb90a81cb8f7d1\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p>In addition to the intensive inflation employment data and monetary policy in the first half of June, the progress of further economic opening in the United States and Europe, the fiscal policy of the United States and the epidemic in emerging markets will all be variables that need to be focused on in the coming period.</p><p><b>Allocation Strategy and Recommendation: Main Line or Return to Growth from April Price and May Liquidity</b></p><p><b>Chart: In May, our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c21c9d86f238984672ca5ee07861e0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: European stocks and VIX are major contributors to portfolio gains</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29198c7c71829e341e8bc7a33a8305b8\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Price performance of major overseas assets in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8af5fc956a3bb0e366ca610896ec3b7\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>From the configuration strategy, based on our analysis in the above,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to look for direction and consensus:</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by rising interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2）<b>However, if it passes relatively smoothly as we expect, the main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May.</b>Equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window, while the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited. In particular,</p><p><b>► Cross Assets:</b>Based on the background that growth may return to the main line and liquidity remains loose,<b>We recommend the ranking of stocks> commodities> gold> bonds. EQUITY MARKET</b>We need to pay attention to the possible fluctuations in the process of finding direction and consensus in the first half of June, but even if there are fluctuations, we don't think it is a reversal of the trend;<b>Commodities</b>The price and inventory are still on the high side, and the pure supply-side premium has been partially falsified, so we still recommend waiting for the signal of demand-side repair.<b>Gold</b>Under periodic price pressure, it can still be partially allocated, but it is not recommended to continue to add positions.<b>Interest rate</b>The downside of may be limited.<b>the US Dollar Index</b>The continued weakness is related to the convergence of the scissors gap between the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the surge of US dollar liquidity, but it may strengthen again when the main line turns to growth.</p><p><b>► Cross-market:</b>We are still optimistic about the medium-term prospects supported by the earnings of the US stock market, and pay attention to the disturbance in early June in the short term.<b>Europe</b>The current improvement of the epidemic situation and the gradual acceleration of vaccination will be expected to provide support and maintain a relatively standard configuration.<b>Emerging markets</b>After the early correction, it has been repaired, but internal differentiation and growth prospects are still the main resistances to its overweight, paying attention to the disturbance of US dollar liquidity and marginal changes in US Treasury yields.</p><p><b>► Plate Style:</b>The downward short-end interest rate in May and the abundant liquidity of the US dollar made<b>Growth Style</b>It obviously outperformed in major markets, and if the follow-up growth becomes the main line again, it may turn into balance. In addition, as more opening progress advances,<b>Resumption of work and demand for services</b>The sectors that benefit from the recovery are still worth paying attention to.</p><p>Our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency) in May, performing slightly below global equity markets (1.15%, MSCI Global Index, in US dollars) and commodities (2.64%), but better than global bond markets (0.55%, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Bond Index, in US dollars) and the equity-bond 60/40 portfolio (0.92%). Since its inception in July 2016, the portfolio has accumulated a return of 101.3% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.8. In terms of items, European stocks and commodities are the main contributors to the portfolio rise. Our strategy of slightly cutting U.S. stocks in early May (but maintaining overweight) and adding them to emerging (but overall low) is appropriate in retrospect.</p><p><b>Chart: June Overseas Asset Allocation Recommendations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d48e5a41ba3838b63f63b91d1112f5\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>May Review: Easing Price Pressures, Ample Liquidity and Retracting Interest Rates Support Market and Growth Stock Performance</b></p><p>In May, 1) Cross-asset: bulk> shares> debt; 2) Equity market: emerging> developed; Developed Europe led gains, FAAMNG lagged; In emerging countries, Russia, Brazil, India and A shares are leading, while Hong Kong stocks are lagging behind; 3) Bond market, corporate bonds> high-yield bonds> Treasury Bond; US Treasury yields drops back; 4) Commodities: gold led the rise, copper and crude oil continued to rise as a whole,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>Pudie; 5) Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index weakened, Brazilian Lille and Russian ruble strengthened; 6) Alternative assets, Bitcoin plummeted.</p><p><b>Chart: Performance of global major assets in May: under US dollar pricing, bulk> stocks> bonds, led by GEM, Russian and Indian stock markets, gold and copper; Bitcoin, VIX Bulls, Soybeans, FAAMNG Lead Declines</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90dcb4b382e034b1113cf941307c9e4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>In May, the economic surprise index of the United States, Europe and China fell, while Japan rose. In May, the financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to be loose, while the margins in Europe and China tightened slightly. The capital flow is upward. In May, the capital flow into emerging, European and Japanese stock markets accelerated. The inflow in the United States slowed down compared with April, but the absolute scale is still the highest.</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Europe and China economic surprise index fell back in May, Japan rose</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfcba6982c34a61940673560ac38140a\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to loosen in May, while Europe and China tightened marginally</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3434be95a404935a9ff9c8c2c5a2a89b\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Flows accelerated into emerging, European and Japanese stocks in May, with U.S. inflows slowing from April, but remaining the highest in absolute terms</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f55eb9694de2535b7041b5dc594fce2\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, EPFR, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Japan and emerging companies all outperformed in value in May, with Europe leading growth</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f5319374462533836f48e4c84f7653\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (data as of May 31, 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: In May, the 10-year US Treasury yields retreated slightly, with real interest rates falling and implied inflation expectations rising first and then falling</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab038a49a17a50a1bb267bf4bb810416\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S. corporate bonds, U.S. high-yield bonds, U.S. Treasury Bond and emerging corporate bonds all rose in May, while European Treasury Bond and corporate bonds fell</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8045eabbc8fe09281c41be47e683a310\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Euro, yen, yuan strengthened in May, the US Dollar Index weakened</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1492faa47992f53b285eaae6952669\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: June or a key fork in the road, the main line of global assets or return to growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: June or a key fork in the road, the main line of global assets or return to growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed. However, looking forward to June, the current price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially whether this combination of growth stocks leading the market can be sustained is a general worry in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</p><p><b>So, to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future</b>(The FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th).</p><p><b>Benchmark Judgment: Inflation Marginal Ease, Policy Holds On, Growth Becomes the Main Line Again</b></p><p>In the baseline case,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>After surviving the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month,<b>We expect the market focus to shift from prices in April and liquidity in May again to demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, a return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure.</p><p><b>Allocation strategy: Main line or return to growth from April price and May liquidity</b></p><p>From the configuration policy,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to expect to find direction and consensus</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by the rise in interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2) But if it goes through relatively smoothly as we expect,<b>The main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May, and equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window. However, the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited.</b></p><p><b>After inflation and liquidity, the main line may return to growth</b></p><p><b>— — Monthly Report on Overseas Asset Allocation (2021-6)</b></p><p><b>June or a key fork in the road: it has an important impact on future policy expectations and market trends</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the logic driving global asset pricing in May has quietly changed.</b>The price pressure brought by the surge in commodities in April eased marginally with the loosening of the increase, which is consistent with our opinion in \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-5): Whether to sell in May?\" at the beginning of the month that the rise of broad-spectrum commodities is not steady, and that the follow-up performance of commodities should pay more attention to whether demand can take over rather than just supply-side premium in \"U.S. raw material inventories are close to historic highs\".<b>Marginal easing of price pressures, superimposed with a surge in dollar liquidity</b>(\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in Dollar Liquidity\"),<b>It not only promoted the downward trend of US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, but also further spilled over to other exchange rate appreciation and the outperformance of growth stocks.</b>in addition, the US stocks in May did not Sell in May that the market was worried about, but the US stocks still underperformed other major markets. Therefore, it is basically appropriate for us to slightly reduce the allocation ratio of US stocks at the beginning of the month and add it to emerging markets.</p><p><b>Chart: Price pressures from the April commodity surge have eased marginally as gains loosen</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35a357e56119369992540f35a5a53e6\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The Fed's recent use of reverse repurchases hit a record high, with reverse repurchases reaching $485.3 billion on May 27</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a35a7ee8847b13403facada770066cf7\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The three-month cross-swap of the euro, yen and pound with the dollar, which measure global dollar liquidity, also basically hit new lows since 2015</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a57b1727caf390252979ef0e6e2da86\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Looking forward to June, whether the current combination of price pressure is suspended, liquidity is improving, interest rates are falling, and the US dollar is weakening to push the market, especially growth stocks leading, can be sustained is a general concern in the market. Worries about inflation and monetary policy changes in the United States are still \"two dark clouds\" hanging over investors.</b>Especially for such a heavy month as June (the FOMC meeting will be held from June 15th to 16th, and the May non-agricultural and CPI data will be announced on June 4th and June 10th respectively).</p><p><b>So to some extent, June may even be a key fork in the road that affects the policy (expectation) and market direction in the future:</b>If the employment and inflation pressures are obviously eased, and the Federal Reserve can continue its loose posture, then the market is expected to usher in a new round of breathing window, and the direct impact when the third quarter prompts the official reduction in the fourth quarter is also controllable; On the contrary, if inflation unexpectedly exceeds expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to take action, the market may usher in a new round of volatility. After all, it was obviously earlier than expected to prompt the start of reduction from June to July (Historical Experience and Enlightenment of QE Reduction). Therefore, compared with the so-called selling experience in May, which is actually unreliable from historical experience, if there is an accident, the potential fluctuation in June may be greater, and its impact on future policies and market trends may be greater, not only because of the extremely high correlation between stocks and bonds at present and the historically low correlation between Sino-American stock markets.</p><p><b>Chart: The current stock-bond correlation represented by the S&P 500 index and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has reached a historically high level…</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52141428681b28d3b055d5c20f3a2bbc\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: …while the current correlation between the Chinese and US stock markets handles historically relatively low levels</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d4d494b22ab1794ecb7d962cef64061\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Our benchmark judgment: Inflation marginally eases, policy stands still, growth becomes the main line again</b></p><p>Although there is a considerable possibility of surprises (the April data clearly tells us how big a bias in expectations may be at the inflection point, especially the nonlinear changes caused by the epidemic), under the baseline scenario,<b>We tend to think that inflationary pressure or marginal easing (year-on-year due to the base effect will continue to rise but is expected to fall month-on-month), the job market has improved compared with April but is still tight, and the Federal Reserve will therefore remain patient until the summer or third quarter.</b>If this situation can occur, combined with the current loose liquidity state that may be maintained (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent US Dollar Liquidity Surge\"), it is expected to continue to provide a relatively good situation for equity assets and continue to support our positive view on US stocks.<b>After the data and policy disturbances in the first half of the month, we expect that the market focus will shift from the price in April and the liquidity in May to the demand repair after the wider opening of the United States, that is, it will return to the main line of growth.</b>At this time, the US dollar is likely to strengthen again, while gold may be under pressure. Specifically,</p><p><b>► Growth: Offline consumption and travel demand are continuously recovering, and the number of travellers has reached a new high since the pandemic.</b>The continuous advancement of vaccination has made the opening process continue to advance. At present, 37 states in the United States have been opened, and we expect to enter a fully open state at the end of June and early July. Opening up on a wider scale means more travel and the release of offline service consumption demand, which has been clearly reflected in high-frequency indicators (for example, the number of airport TSA security trips on Memorial Day just past hit a new high since the epidemic), which in turn supports the stamina of demand in the third quarter, and may even mean the repair of the job market (we note that the unemployment rate repair in open and not fully open states is quite different).</p><p><b>Chart: Airport TSA security trips this past Memorial Day hit new high since the pandemic</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ce9d3f9ee3debfe47d14bdf4f206aa\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FRED, Bloomberg, TSA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: At present, 37 states in the United States are fully open, and we expect to enter full opening by the end of June and early July</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6459563ed0ec3d4b758a3a5a0295a3\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking at the U.S. state unemployment rates released in April, there is a wide difference between the unemployment rates of open and not fully open states</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ea8a363027959a0705fd178a44e83\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: NYT, CEIC, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Inflation: The inflationary pressure that exceeded expectations in April came from the renewed gap between supply and demand, but this gap is expected to show marginal relief from both ends of supply and demand.</b>In late March, the consumption on the demand side after the fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion dropped from the peak, while the bottleneck on the supply side due to cold weather and lack of chips was also being repaired. In May, the local supply bottleneck has improved (the delivery time dropped from the previous month). From the perspective of the industry, the prices of used cars (supply bottleneck) and air tickets (open demand) in April greatly exceeded expectations. However, from the current high frequency, the month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly.<b>We estimate that as long as the average month-on-month growth rate does not exceed 0.2% during the year, the CPI in May will be the high point of the year.</b></p><p><b>Chart: Judging from the supplier delivery time index in the local Fed survey, the local supply bottleneck has improved in May (delivery time dropped month-on-month)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff9644c9e34d56efa233c357c69e094\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The month-on-month growth rate of used car prices in May has dropped significantly</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05c0285435a9aec4015ba39179b4836\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We calculate that if the monthly average month-on-month does not exceed 0.2% during the year, then the U.S. CPI year-on-year high will appear in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900bee92524289aefa65504110157c0\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In terms of industries, the prices in April greatly exceeded expectations from the previous month, mainly used cars (supply bottleneck) and airfare (open demand)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1386101b4733230ba8f136d3e569cd\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Monetary policy and dollar liquidity:</b>Under the above combination, we tend to think that the long-term recovery of the job market is still the main consideration of the Fed,<b>Therefore, the Fed is expected to remain patient,</b>Technical fine-tuning of Interest Rate Corridor is certainly not ruled out. According to the current repair speed of ~8 million employment gap, we estimate that the fourth quarter may be the window to start the reduction, while the third quarter or the Jackson Hole annual meeting in late summer may suggest the reduction, which also corresponds to the release of new consumer demand and employment after all openings.<b>Against this background, US dollar liquidity, combined with the continuous decline of the cash account of the US Treasury Department, is still expected to remain relatively loose, but we suspect that it will be further strengthened similar to that in the past period (\"The Internal and External Implications of the Recent Surge in US dollar liquidity\").</b></p><p><b>Chart: If both unemployment and labor participation rates are to return to pre-pandemic levels, there is still a gap of more than 8 million jobs, and it will take 10 months to recover even at the pace of March</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aceb187daa37b04c5cefcb1185ab2a95\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The U.S. Treasury's cash account plunged from 1.36 trillion in early March to the latest $812.5 billion, down nearly $550 billion</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82bc05752d2f3f3a0bb90a81cb8f7d1\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Haver, CICC Research</p><p>In addition to the intensive inflation employment data and monetary policy in the first half of June, the progress of further economic opening in the United States and Europe, the fiscal policy of the United States and the epidemic in emerging markets will all be variables that need to be focused on in the coming period.</p><p><b>Allocation Strategy and Recommendation: Main Line or Return to Growth from April Price and May Liquidity</b></p><p><b>Chart: In May, our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c21c9d86f238984672ca5ee07861e0\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: European stocks and VIX are major contributors to portfolio gains</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29198c7c71829e341e8bc7a33a8305b8\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Price performance of major overseas assets in May</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8af5fc956a3bb0e366ca610896ec3b7\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>From the configuration strategy, based on our analysis in the above,<b>The first half of June is undoubtedly an important window for the market to look for direction and consensus:</b>1) If there are unexpected changes that cause market turmoil, referring to the experience of QE cutting panic in 2013, the fluctuations caused by rising interest rates, stocks, bonds and gold are not good choices, and they should be dealt with by lowering positions. 2）<b>However, if it passes relatively smoothly as we expect, the main line of global assets is expected to return to growth from inflation in April and liquidity in May.</b>Equity assets may also usher in a new round of growth-driven breathing window, while the growth momentum of the full opening of the United States may support the performance of the US dollar and suppress gold, and the downside of interest rates is relatively limited. In particular,</p><p><b>► Cross Assets:</b>Based on the background that growth may return to the main line and liquidity remains loose,<b>We recommend the ranking of stocks> commodities> gold> bonds. EQUITY MARKET</b>We need to pay attention to the possible fluctuations in the process of finding direction and consensus in the first half of June, but even if there are fluctuations, we don't think it is a reversal of the trend;<b>Commodities</b>The price and inventory are still on the high side, and the pure supply-side premium has been partially falsified, so we still recommend waiting for the signal of demand-side repair.<b>Gold</b>Under periodic price pressure, it can still be partially allocated, but it is not recommended to continue to add positions.<b>Interest rate</b>The downside of may be limited.<b>the US Dollar Index</b>The continued weakness is related to the convergence of the scissors gap between the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the surge of US dollar liquidity, but it may strengthen again when the main line turns to growth.</p><p><b>► Cross-market:</b>We are still optimistic about the medium-term prospects supported by the earnings of the US stock market, and pay attention to the disturbance in early June in the short term.<b>Europe</b>The current improvement of the epidemic situation and the gradual acceleration of vaccination will be expected to provide support and maintain a relatively standard configuration.<b>Emerging markets</b>After the early correction, it has been repaired, but internal differentiation and growth prospects are still the main resistances to its overweight, paying attention to the disturbance of US dollar liquidity and marginal changes in US Treasury yields.</p><p><b>► Plate Style:</b>The downward short-end interest rate in May and the abundant liquidity of the US dollar made<b>Growth Style</b>It obviously outperformed in major markets, and if the follow-up growth becomes the main line again, it may turn into balance. In addition, as more opening progress advances,<b>Resumption of work and demand for services</b>The sectors that benefit from the recovery are still worth paying attention to.</p><p>Our overseas asset allocation portfolio rose 1.08% (in local currency) in May, performing slightly below global equity markets (1.15%, MSCI Global Index, in US dollars) and commodities (2.64%), but better than global bond markets (0.55%, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Bond Index, in US dollars) and the equity-bond 60/40 portfolio (0.92%). Since its inception in July 2016, the portfolio has accumulated a return of 101.3% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.8. In terms of items, European stocks and commodities are the main contributors to the portfolio rise. Our strategy of slightly cutting U.S. stocks in early May (but maintaining overweight) and adding them to emerging (but overall low) is appropriate in retrospect.</p><p><b>Chart: June Overseas Asset Allocation Recommendations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d48e5a41ba3838b63f63b91d1112f5\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p><b>May Review: Easing Price Pressures, Ample Liquidity and Retracting Interest Rates Support Market and Growth Stock Performance</b></p><p>In May, 1) Cross-asset: bulk> shares> debt; 2) Equity market: emerging> developed; Developed Europe led gains, FAAMNG lagged; In emerging countries, Russia, Brazil, India and A shares are leading, while Hong Kong stocks are lagging behind; 3) Bond market, corporate bonds> high-yield bonds> Treasury Bond; US Treasury yields drops back; 4) Commodities: gold led the rise, copper and crude oil continued to rise as a whole,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>Pudie; 5) Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index weakened, Brazilian Lille and Russian ruble strengthened; 6) Alternative assets, Bitcoin plummeted.</p><p><b>Chart: Performance of global major assets in May: under US dollar pricing, bulk> stocks> bonds, led by GEM, Russian and Indian stock markets, gold and copper; Bitcoin, VIX Bulls, Soybeans, FAAMNG Lead Declines</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90dcb4b382e034b1113cf941307c9e4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, Factset, CICC Research</p><p>In May, the economic surprise index of the United States, Europe and China fell, while Japan rose. In May, the financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to be loose, while the margins in Europe and China tightened slightly. The capital flow is upward. In May, the capital flow into emerging, European and Japanese stock markets accelerated. The inflow in the United States slowed down compared with April, but the absolute scale is still the highest.</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Europe and China economic surprise index fell back in May, Japan rose</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfcba6982c34a61940673560ac38140a\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Financial conditions in the United States and Japan tended to loosen in May, while Europe and China tightened marginally</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3434be95a404935a9ff9c8c2c5a2a89b\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Flows accelerated into emerging, European and Japanese stocks in May, with U.S. inflows slowing from April, but remaining the highest in absolute terms</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f55eb9694de2535b7041b5dc594fce2\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, EPFR, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S., Japan and emerging companies all outperformed in value in May, with Europe leading growth</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f5319374462533836f48e4c84f7653\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (data as of May 31, 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: In May, the 10-year US Treasury yields retreated slightly, with real interest rates falling and implied inflation expectations rising first and then falling</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab038a49a17a50a1bb267bf4bb810416\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: U.S. corporate bonds, U.S. high-yield bonds, U.S. Treasury Bond and emerging corporate bonds all rose in May, while European Treasury Bond and corporate bonds fell</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8045eabbc8fe09281c41be47e683a310\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Euro, yen, yuan strengthened in May, the US Dollar Index weakened</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1492faa47992f53b285eaae6952669\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/487337.html\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150cf3636f70b725226ad8b674ce0650","relate_stocks":{"518880":"黄金ETF华安","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck",".DJI":"道琼斯","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/487337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140449283","content_text":"6月或是关键岔路口：对未来政策预期和市场走向有重要影响\n回顾看，5月驱动全球资产定价的逻辑已经悄然出现一些变化。但展望6月，当前价格压力暂缓、流动性向好、利率回落、美元走弱推动市场特别是成长股领先的这一组合能否持续却是市场普遍担心的问题，对美国通胀和货币政策变化的担忧依然是悬在投资者头上的“两朵乌云”。\n因此某种程度上，6月甚至可能成为影响未来一段政策（预期）和市场走向的关键岔路口（6月15~16日召开FOMC会议，6月4日和6月10日公布5月非农和CPI数据）。\n基准判断：通胀边际缓解、政策按兵不动、增长再成主线\n基准情形下，我们倾向于认为通胀压力或边际缓解（同比因基数效应将继续抬升但环比有望回落）、就业市场较4月改善但依然趋紧、美联储因此维持耐心直到夏天或三季度。而渡过上半月数据和政策扰动后，我们预期市场关注点将从4月的价格和5月的流动性再度转向美国更大范围开放后的需求修复，也即重回增长主线。此时，美元有可能再度走强，而黄金或承压。\n配置策略：主线或从4月的价格和5月的流动性重回增长\n从配置策略上，6月上半月无疑是市场预期寻找方向和共识的重要窗口：1）如果出现预期外变化进而引发市场动荡，参照2013年QE削减恐慌的经验，利率上冲造成的波动，股票债券和黄金都不是好的选择，更应以降低仓位的方式应对。2）但若如我们预期的相对平稳渡过的话，全球资产主线则有望从4月份的通胀和5月的流动性重回增长，权益资产也或迎来新一轮增长驱动的喘息窗口，而美国全面开放的增长动能或支撑美元表现，并压制黄金，利率的下行空间也相对有限。\n通胀和流动性后，主线或重回增长\n——海外资产配置月报（2021-6）\n6月或是关键岔路口：对未来政策预期和市场走向有重要影响\n回顾看，5月份驱动全球资产定价的逻辑已经在悄然间出现一些变化。4月大宗商品大涨带来的价格压力随着涨幅松动边际缓解，这与我们月初《海外资产配置月报（2021-5）：五月是否卖出？》提出广谱大宗商品上涨并非稳态、以及在《美国原材料库存已接近历史高位》中提示大宗商品后续表现要更多关注需求能否接棒而非仅是供给侧溢价观点一致。价格压力的边际缓解，叠加美元流动性激增（《近期美元流动性激增的内外部含义》），既推动了美债利率和美元指数的下行，也进一步外溢到其他汇率升值和成长股的跑赢。此外，5月的美股也并没有出现市场担心的五月卖出（Sell in May），但美股依然跑输其他主要市场，因此我们在月初小幅下调美股配置比例并略加到新兴市场也是基本恰当的。\n图表：4月大宗商品大涨带来的价格压力随着涨幅的松动已经边际缓解资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：美联储近期逆回购使用规模创纪录新高，5月27日当日逆回购规模达4853亿美元资料来源：FRED，Bloomberg，TSA，中金公司研究部\n图表：  衡量全球美元流动性的欧元日元和英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换也都基本创下2015年以来的新低资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n展望6月，当前价格压力暂缓、流动性向好、利率回落、美元走弱推动市场特别是成长股领先的这一组合能否持续却是市场普遍担心的问题，对美国通胀和货币政策变化的担忧依然是悬在投资者头上的“两朵乌云”，特别是对于6月份这样一个重磅月份而言（6月15~16日召开FOMC会议，6月4日和6月10日分别将公布5月非农和CPI数据）。\n因此某种程度上，6月甚至可能成为影响未来一段时间政策（预期）和市场走向的关键岔路口：如果就业和通胀压力明显缓解，美联储也得以延续宽松姿态，那么市场有望迎来新一轮喘息窗口，待三季度提示四季度正式减量时的直击冲击也是可控的；相反，如果通胀意外大超预期，迫使美联储不得不采取行动的话，市场可能重新迎来一轮波动，毕竟在6~7月就提示开始减量是明显早于预期的（《QE减量的历史经验与启示》）。所以相比所谓的从历史经验看其实并不可靠的5月卖出经验，如果出现意外的话6月的潜在波动反而可能更大，其对未来政策和市场走向的影响也更大，倒不仅仅是因为目前处于极端高位的股债相关性以及处于历史低位的中美股市相关性。\n图表:   当前以标普500指数和美国10年期国债收益率为代表的股债相关性达到历史相对高位…资料来源：FRED，Bloomberg，TSA，中金公司研究部\n图表: …而当前中美股市之间的相关性处理历史相对低位资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n我们的基准判断：通胀边际缓解、政策按兵不动、增长再成主线\n虽然存在相当大的意外可能性（4月数据清楚的告诉我们在拐点处、特别是疫情造成的非线性变化可能会导致多么大的预期偏差），但基准情形下，我们倾向于认为通胀压力或边际缓解（同比因基数效应将继续抬升但环比有望回落）、就业市场较4月改善但依然趋紧、美联储因此维持耐心直到夏天或三季度。这一局面若能出现，结合当前可能维持的宽松流动性状态（《近期美元流动性激增的内外部含义》），有望继续给权益类资产提供相对较好的局面，也继续支撑我们对美股积极的看法。而渡过上半月数据和政策扰动后，我们预期市场关注点将从4月的价格和5月的流动性再度转向美国更大范围开放后的需求修复，也即重回增长主线。此时，美元有可能再度走强，而黄金或承压。具体来看，\n►增长：线下消费与出行需求正在持续修复，出行人数创疫情以来新高。疫苗接种持续推进使得开放进程不断推进，目前美国37个州已经开放，我们预计6月底7月初有望进入全部开放状态。更大范围内的开放意味着更多的出行和线下服务性消费需求的释放，这一点从高频指标上已经得到明显体现（例如刚刚过去的阵亡将士纪念日的机场TSA安检出行人数创出疫情以来新高），进而支撑需求在三季度的后劲，甚至也可能意味着就业市场的修复（我们注意到开放与未完全开放州的失业率修复相差较大）。\n图表： 刚刚过去的阵亡将士纪念日的机场TSA安检出行人数创出疫情以来新高资料来源：FRED，Bloomberg，TSA，中金公司研究部\n图表：目前美国已有37个州完全开放，我们预计6月底7月初有望进入全部开放状态资料来源：NYT，Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：从美国4月公布的各州失业率来看，开放与未完全开放的州的失业率相差较大资料来源：NYT，CEIC，中金公司研究部\n►通胀：4月大超预期的通胀压力来自再度扩大的供需裂口，但这一裂口从供需两端看都有望出现边际缓解。需求侧3月下旬1.9万亿美元财政刺激后的消费从高峰回落、而供给侧因为寒冷天气和缺少芯片等因素的瓶颈也在修复，5月份局部的供应瓶颈已经出现改善（交付时间环比回落）。从行业来看，4月份价格环比大超预期的主要是二手车（供应瓶颈）和机票（开放需求），但从目前高频数看，5月二手车价格环比增速已经明显回落。我们测算，只要年内每个月环比平均增速不超过0.2%的话，5月CPI同比便将是年内高点。\n图表:   从地方联储调查中的供应商交货时间指数来看，5月份局部的供应瓶颈已经出现改善（交付时间环比回落）资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月二手车价格环比增速已经明显回落资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表： 我们测算，如果年内月平均环比不超过0.2%的话，那么美国CPI同比高点就将在5月出现资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表：分行业来看，4月价格环比大超预期的主要是二手车（供应瓶颈）和机票（开放需求）资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部\n►货币政策和美元流动性：上述组合下，我们倾向于认为就业市场长期修复依然是美联储的主要考量依据，因此美联储有望维持耐心按兵不动，当然不排除对利率走廊做出技术性微调。根据当前~800万就业缺口的修复速度，我们测算四季度可能是开始减量的窗口，而三季度或者夏末Jackson Hole年会可能提示减量，这一时间也正好对应全部开放后新增消费需求和就业的释放。美元流动性在这一背景下，结合美国财政部现金账户的持续回落，仍有望维持相对宽松局面，但我们怀疑还会类似于过去一段时间那样进一步加强（《近期美元流动性激增的内外部含义》）。\n图表：若要失业率和劳动参与率都回至疫情前的话还有超过800万的就业缺口，即便按照3月修复速度也需要10个月资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n图表：美国财政部的现金账户从3月上旬的1.36万亿骤降至最新的8125亿美元，减少近5500亿美元资料来源：Bloomberg，Haver，中金公司研究部\n除了6月上半月密集的通胀就业数据和货币政策外，美欧经济进一步开放进展、美国财政政策以及新兴市场疫情都将是未来一段时间需要重点关注的变量。\n配置策略与建议：主线或从4月的价格和5月的流动性重回增长\n图表：5月，我们的海外资产配置组合上涨1.08%（本币计价）资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n图表： 欧洲股市及VIX是组合上涨的主要贡献资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月主要海外资产价格表现资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n从配置策略上，基于我们在上文中的分析，6月上半月无疑是市场预期寻找方向和共识的重要窗口：1）如果出现预期外变化进而引发市场动荡，参照2013年QE削减恐慌的经验，利率上冲造成的波动，股票债券和黄金都不是好的选择，更应以降低仓位的方式应对。2）但若如我们预期的相对平稳渡过的话，全球资产主线则有望从4月份的通胀和5月的流动性重回增长，权益资产也或迎来新一轮增长驱动的喘息窗口，而美国全面开放的增长动能或支撑美元表现，并压制黄金，利率的下行空间也相对有限。具体而言，\n►跨资产：基于增长可能重回主线而流动性维持宽松的大背景，我们建议股>大宗>黄金>债券的排序。权益市场需要关注6月上半月寻找方向和共识过程中的可能波动，但即便出现波动我们也不认为是趋势的逆转；大宗商品价格和库存依然偏高，单纯的供给侧溢价在部分被证伪，因此我们依然建议等待需求侧修复的信号。黄金在阶段性的价格压力下仍可以部分配置，但不建议继续加仓。利率的下行空间可能有限。美元指数持续的弱势和欧美疫情剪刀差收敛以及美元流动性激增有关，但当主线转向增长后可能会再度走强。\n►跨市场：我们依然看好美股市场盈利支撑下的中期前景，短期关注6月上旬的扰动。欧洲当前疫情改善和疫苗接种的逐步加速将有望提供支撑，维持相对标配。新兴市场在经历了前期回调后有所修复，但内部分化和增长前景依然是对其超配的主要阻力，关注美元流动性和美债利率边际变化的扰动。\n►板块风格：5月短端利率下行和美元流动性充裕使得成长风格在主要市场均明显跑赢，后续如果增长再度成为主线后可能会转为均衡。此外，随着更多开放进展的推进，复工和服务性需求回升受益的板块依然值得关注。\n我们海外资产配置组合5月上涨1.08%（本币计价），表现略低于全球股市（1.15%，MSCI全球指数，美元计价）和大宗商品（2.64%），但好于全球债市（0.55%，美银美林全球债券指数，美元计价）和股债60/40组合（0.92%）。自2016年7月成立以来，该组合累积回报101.3%，夏普比率2.8。分项看，欧洲股市和大宗商品是组合上涨的主要贡献。我们在5月初小幅下调美股（但维持超配）并加至新兴（但整体偏低）的策略回过头来看是恰当的。\n图表：6月海外资产配置建议资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n5月回顾：价格压力缓解、流动性宽裕和利率回落支撑市场与成长股表现\n5月，1）跨资产：大宗>股>债；2）权益市场：新兴>发达；发达中欧洲领涨，FAAMNG落后；新兴中，俄罗斯、巴西、印度及A股领先，港股落后；3）债券市场，公司债>高收益债>国债；美债利率回落；4）大宗商品：黄金领涨、铜、原油整体继续上行，农产品普跌；5）汇率：美元指数走弱，巴西里尔、俄罗斯卢布走强；6）另类资产，比特币大跌。\n图表：5月全球大类资产表现：美元计价下，大宗>股>债，创业板、俄罗斯及印度股市、黄金、铜领涨；比特币、VIX多头、大豆、FAAMNG领跌资料来源：Bloomberg，Factset，中金公司研究部\n5月，美国、欧洲及中国经济意外指数回落，日本抬升。5月，美国、日本金融条件趋向宽松，欧洲及中国边际上略有收紧。资金流向上，5月，资金加速流入新兴、欧洲及日本股市，美国较4月流入放缓，但绝对规模依然最高。\n图表：5月美国、欧洲以及中国经济意外指数回落，日本抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月美国、日本金融条件趋向宽松，欧洲及中国边际上略有收紧资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月，资金加速流入新兴、欧洲及日本股市，美国较4月流入放缓，但绝对规模依然最高资料来源：Bloomberg，EPFR，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月美国、日本及新兴均为价值跑赢，欧洲成长领先资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（数据截止2021年5月31日）\n图表：5月，10年期美债利率略有回落，其中实际利率下滑，隐含通胀预期先升后降资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：5月美国公司债、美国高收益债、美国国债、新兴公司债均上涨，欧洲国债及公司债下跌资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表:   5月欧元、日元、人民币走强，美元指数走弱资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"518880":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}