Kevin29 personal page - To The Moon

Kevin29

Kevin29

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2023-11-02

[财迷]

美股成交额TOP20 | 芯片股显著走高！AMD涨近10%至三周高位，英伟达涨近4%脱离四个半月低位

2023-09-05

[财迷]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-04-25

[财迷]

DBS Downgrades OCBC and UOB to "Hold" As It Sees "Limited Catalysts for Now"

2023-04-19

[财迷]

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2023-04-14

[财迷]

CPI报告吹响终场哨声！美联储要赢了？

2023-04-11

[财迷]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-04-11

[财迷]

期权大单 | 芯片股狂欢，美光科技看涨期权大增！利好利空齐到，Tilray“很尴尬”

2023-04-11

[财迷]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-04-10

[呆住]

财报前瞻 | 美国银行股压力重重，Q1财报会有何表现？

2023-04-10

[财迷]

异动 | 美股指期货弱势震荡，美光科技盘前涨超4%

2023-04-07

[财迷]

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2023-04-04

[财迷]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-31

[微笑]

市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！

2023-03-30

[呆住]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-23

[财迷]

外媒头条 | 连续9次！美联储再加息25个百分点

2023-03-08

[呆住]

盘前 | 三大股指期货转跌，两大风险事件今夜来袭

2023-03-08

[流泪]

美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，超市场预期

2023-03-08

[财迷]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-16

SOHO

套现195亿！爱上编程的潘石屹，甩卖公司股权

2021-06-04

Win win

Beyond Meat names Amazon VP as CFO

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Pencil当日开售，售价为649元，产品平直侧边可通过磁力吸附于iPad侧面，使用USB-C连接线进行配对与充电。</p><p>此外，知名苹果爆料人马克-古尔曼（Mark Gurman）最新撰文表示，苹果公司计划为明年的Apple Watch推出多项健康相关的新功能，以及新的付费健康指导服务。古尔曼列举了2024年款Apple Watch的新重点项目：首先是一种用于监测人体血压何时升高的新传感器，“最初的系统不会向用户显示精确的收缩压和舒张压测量结果，但公司正在开发后续版本。”</p><p>第5名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>收高2.35%，成交96.15亿美元。微软于周二宣布开始推出Windows 11操作系统的下一次重大更新（23H2），包括一个名为Copilot的聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>。Copilot依赖于OpenAI基于大量数据集训练的底层大型语言模型，以编写电子邮件文本、回答问题并自动在Windows中执行操作，同时从网站获取信息以增加其知识。在本周晚些时候，该公司将开始销售Microsoft 365 Copilot，这是一个为使用其生产力应用的企业工作者设计的AI附加组件。</p><p>第6名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>收高2.94%，成交82.7亿美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>首席许可官Arvin Patel周一在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">诺基亚</a>官网发文指出，对亚马逊在其流媒体服务和设备中未经授权使用诺基亚视频相关技术的行为提起了法律诉讼。诺基亚称，已在美国、德国、印度、英国和欧洲提起诉讼。此外，诺基亚还在美国对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>在其设备中未经授权使用诺基亚的视频相关专利技术提起诉讼。</p><p>第7名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>收高3.51%，成交61.65亿美元。欧洲数据监管机构已同意将非欧盟成员国挪威对Facebook和Instagram上的“行为广告”实施的禁令扩大到欧盟和欧洲经济区的所有30个国家。自8月7日以来，作为上述两家公司的母公司，Meta在挪威每天被处以100 万克朗（9万美元）的罚款，原因是使用用户的位置或浏览行为等数据进行广告宣传（这是大型科技公司常见的商业模式），从而侵犯了用户的隐私。</p><p>第9名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>A类股（GOOGL）收高1.91%，成交37.6亿美元。第10名谷歌（GOOG）收高1.81%，成交33.51亿美元。</p><p>谷歌已经解决了约会应用开发商Match Group对其Google Play应用商店垄断安卓应用分销的指控，这使得《堡垒之夜》制造商Epic Games成为将于11月6日开始的针对谷歌的反垄断审判中的唯一原告。</p><p>Match告诉股东，已经与谷歌达成了合作协议，这将为双方广泛的合作关系提供价值交换。此前Epic和Match指控谷歌非法垄断安卓应用的分发，称谷歌获取了数十亿美元的垄断利润，并压制了多个市场的创新和选择。谷歌否认存在不法行为，并表示这些指控源于谷歌在应用销售方面不与苹果竞争的虚构事实。</p><p>第13名Paycom Software收盘重挫38.49%，成交16.78亿美元。数月前，做空机构Kerrisdale Capital认为，Paycom Software的股价存在大量泡沫。该机构指出，在目前市值超过100亿美元的软件股中，Paycom Software是估值最高的一家，其“总市值/自由现金流”倍数为84倍，远高于同行平均水平30.8倍。</p><p>第15名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">雅诗兰黛</a>大跌18.9%，成交15.97亿美元。雅诗兰黛第一财季净销售额35.2亿美元，预期35.4亿美元；第一财季经调整后每股收益11美分，市场预估每股亏损20美分。雅诗兰黛预计全年净销售额将下降2%至增长1%。</p><p>第17名<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收高2.16%，成交15.39亿美元。Northland Capital Markets分析师Gus Richard表示，他对英特尔的执行力“充满信心”，并预计英特尔明年将在x86微处理器市场获得更多份额。</p><p>分析师在一份报告中表示：“我们相信系统级封装（SiP）将从根本上改变半导体行业。”他补充称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>和英特尔将主导系统级封装代工市场，因此，外包半导体（产品）封装和测试（OSAT），即系统级封装供应商将被“去中介化”。</p><p>该分析师解释称，这种演变需要时间，但越来越多的证据表明它会发生，因此，英特尔“比人们普遍认为的更有优势”。</p><p>以下为美股当日交易最活跃的20只股票（按成交额）：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b85328c695f6decf7dcd28d6a11c5ad\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"2682\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股成交额TOP20 | 芯片股显著走高！AMD涨近10%至三周高位，英伟达涨近4%脱离四个半月低位</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股成交额TOP20 | 芯片股显著走高！AMD涨近10%至三周高位，英伟达涨近4%脱离四个半月低位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-02 04:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-11-02/doc-imztefaa8482977.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三美股成交额第1名特斯拉收高2.44%，成交243.47亿美元。周二，美国陪审团裁定特斯拉自动驾驶系统在2019年的事故中不存在制造缺陷。第2名英伟达收高3.79%，成交180.07亿美元。据报道，英伟达近日发布了546.01 WHQL图形驱动，重点修复了《光环：无限》中加载时间增加和性能下降的问题，并支持即将推出的《使命召唤：现代战争 3》游戏。第3名AMD收高9.69%，成交144.58...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-11-02/doc-imztefaa8482977.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMD":"美国超微公司",".DJI":"道琼斯","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-11-02/doc-imztefaa8482977.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2380626437","content_text":"周三美股成交额第1名特斯拉收高2.44%，成交243.47亿美元。周二，美国陪审团裁定特斯拉自动驾驶系统在2019年的事故中不存在制造缺陷。第2名英伟达收高3.79%，成交180.07亿美元。据报道，英伟达近日发布了546.01 WHQL图形驱动，重点修复了《光环：无限》中加载时间增加和性能下降的问题，并支持即将推出的《使命召唤：现代战争 3》游戏。第3名AMD收高9.69%，成交144.58亿美元。AMD三季度营收58亿美元，市场预期57亿美元；调整后运营利润12亿美元，市场预期12.7亿美元。公司预计四季度营收58亿-64亿美元，市场预期64亿美元；预计数据中心业务将在四季度强劲增长，下调对四季度游戏业务的销售预期。第4名苹果收高1.87%，成交96.82亿美元。11月1日，苹果宣布新款Apple Pencil当日开售，售价为649元，产品平直侧边可通过磁力吸附于iPad侧面，使用USB-C连接线进行配对与充电。此外，知名苹果爆料人马克-古尔曼（Mark Gurman）最新撰文表示，苹果公司计划为明年的Apple Watch推出多项健康相关的新功能，以及新的付费健康指导服务。古尔曼列举了2024年款Apple Watch的新重点项目：首先是一种用于监测人体血压何时升高的新传感器，“最初的系统不会向用户显示精确的收缩压和舒张压测量结果，但公司正在开发后续版本。”第5名微软收高2.35%，成交96.15亿美元。微软于周二宣布开始推出Windows 11操作系统的下一次重大更新（23H2），包括一个名为Copilot的聊天机器人。Copilot依赖于OpenAI基于大量数据集训练的底层大型语言模型，以编写电子邮件文本、回答问题并自动在Windows中执行操作，同时从网站获取信息以增加其知识。在本周晚些时候，该公司将开始销售Microsoft 365 Copilot，这是一个为使用其生产力应用的企业工作者设计的AI附加组件。第6名亚马逊收高2.94%，成交82.7亿美元。诺基亚首席许可官Arvin Patel周一在诺基亚官网发文指出，对亚马逊在其流媒体服务和设备中未经授权使用诺基亚视频相关技术的行为提起了法律诉讼。诺基亚称，已在美国、德国、印度、英国和欧洲提起诉讼。此外，诺基亚还在美国对惠普在其设备中未经授权使用诺基亚的视频相关专利技术提起诉讼。第7名Meta Platforms收高3.51%，成交61.65亿美元。欧洲数据监管机构已同意将非欧盟成员国挪威对Facebook和Instagram上的“行为广告”实施的禁令扩大到欧盟和欧洲经济区的所有30个国家。自8月7日以来，作为上述两家公司的母公司，Meta在挪威每天被处以100 万克朗（9万美元）的罚款，原因是使用用户的位置或浏览行为等数据进行广告宣传（这是大型科技公司常见的商业模式），从而侵犯了用户的隐私。第9名谷歌A类股（GOOGL）收高1.91%，成交37.6亿美元。第10名谷歌（GOOG）收高1.81%，成交33.51亿美元。谷歌已经解决了约会应用开发商Match Group对其Google Play应用商店垄断安卓应用分销的指控，这使得《堡垒之夜》制造商Epic Games成为将于11月6日开始的针对谷歌的反垄断审判中的唯一原告。Match告诉股东，已经与谷歌达成了合作协议，这将为双方广泛的合作关系提供价值交换。此前Epic和Match指控谷歌非法垄断安卓应用的分发，称谷歌获取了数十亿美元的垄断利润，并压制了多个市场的创新和选择。谷歌否认存在不法行为，并表示这些指控源于谷歌在应用销售方面不与苹果竞争的虚构事实。第13名Paycom Software收盘重挫38.49%，成交16.78亿美元。数月前，做空机构Kerrisdale Capital认为，Paycom Software的股价存在大量泡沫。该机构指出，在目前市值超过100亿美元的软件股中，Paycom Software是估值最高的一家，其“总市值/自由现金流”倍数为84倍，远高于同行平均水平30.8倍。第15名雅诗兰黛大跌18.9%，成交15.97亿美元。雅诗兰黛第一财季净销售额35.2亿美元，预期35.4亿美元；第一财季经调整后每股收益11美分，市场预估每股亏损20美分。雅诗兰黛预计全年净销售额将下降2%至增长1%。第17名英特尔收高2.16%，成交15.39亿美元。Northland Capital Markets分析师Gus Richard表示，他对英特尔的执行力“充满信心”，并预计英特尔明年将在x86微处理器市场获得更多份额。分析师在一份报告中表示：“我们相信系统级封装（SiP）将从根本上改变半导体行业。”他补充称，台积电和英特尔将主导系统级封装代工市场，因此，外包半导体（产品）封装和测试（OSAT），即系统级封装供应商将被“去中介化”。该分析师解释称，这种演变需要时间，但越来越多的证据表明它会发生，因此，英特尔“比人们普遍认为的更有优势”。以下为美股当日交易最活跃的20只股票（按成交额）：","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216626060411088,"gmtCreate":1693905626613,"gmtModify":1693905630636,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216626060411088","repostId":"1195776321","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947027408,"gmtCreate":1682389872205,"gmtModify":1682389876940,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947027408","repostId":"1175829315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175829315","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682329507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175829315?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-24 17:45","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"DBS Downgrades OCBC and UOB to \"Hold\" As It Sees \"Limited Catalysts for Now\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175829315","media":"The Edge Singapore","summary":"DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) to “hold” as she sees limited catalysts for both banks for now.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Lim has also lowered her target price estimates. OCBC’s target price is now at $13 from $14 previously while UOB’s target price is at $30.30, down from $34.20 previously.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Higher downside risks for Singapore banking sector overall</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In an overall report on the Singapore banking sector dated April 20, Lim notes several higher downside risks ahead such as limited upside for net interest margins (NIMs).</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“As [the] US Federal Reserve (US Fed) comes close to a peak in this interest rate cycle, we believe there are limited upside for NIMs going forward for Singapore banks, especially as pressures from funding costs continue,” she writes.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Economists from DBS Group Research expect the US Fed to hike rates once more during the 2Q2023 to 5.25%, which is the terminal rate for the current rate hike cycle.</p><p>The analyst also sees increasing downside risks from potential rate cuts in FY2023 should a recession force the Fed to cut rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Singapore Banks have seen strong q-o-q NIM expansion since 1QFY2022, with 4QFY2022 NIMs hitting a decade high as interest rates soared. However, stronger deposit pressures seen during 1QFY2023 will likely lead to an even more muted q-o-q NIM expansion ahead, and possibly deterioration across the banks,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Amid a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, the analyst sees loan growth and recovery in non-interest income may be “weaker than hoped for”.</p><p>“Industry loan growth continues to be weak as system loans contracted by -1.1% year-to-date (ytd) as of end-February,” she writes.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We expect Singapore banks to see muted loan growth of 0% to 1% q-o-q during 1QFY2023. While the banks have largely seen an improvement in wealth management activities during January and February 2023, March 2023 saw volatile and risk-off markets as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse troubles hit the markets,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In addition, Lim believes that market activities are unlikely to rebound back to its FY2021 levels in the near future, in part due to the increasing global economic uncertainties.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Furthermore, asset quality risks continue to be on the rise through FY2023 as recession risks become more imminent and geopolitical tensions continue to increase alongside an inflationary environment.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As it is, Singapore’s economy has already begun to see a sharper-than-expected slowdown during the 1Q2023 alongside US banks, which are increasingly starting to price a recession in the 2H2023 in their outlook.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe there is further downside from higher specific provisions as the economy starts to slow, though banks may reverse some general provisions to buffer credit costs,” says Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That said, all three banks began the current cycle with strong provisions buffers and now have non-performing asset (NPA) coverage ratios of 98% to 122%. “[This is] a key support to valuations in our view which limits downside.”</p><p>“As Fed comes close to a peak in this cycle with potential rate cuts looming in 2HFY2024, with limited NIM upside, a more muted loan growth and non-interest income on the cards, amidst increasing asset quality risks, we cut FY2023-FY2024 earnings by 3%-4% for the banks,” says Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe Singapore banks’ strong provisions buffer, strong dividend yield of [over] 5% and excess capital (room for dividend upside) will limit downside in the near term, lest a global recession or banking crisis happen,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>‘Hold’ for OCBC and UOB</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a separate report for OCBC also dated April 20, the analyst feels OCBC’s earnings may have peaked after the bank benefitted “significantly” from the enhancement of its franchise value after it acquired Wing Hang Bank in 2014.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“[This is] given that Greater China continues to be management’s focus as a key market outside Singapore, contributing close to 15% of the group’s income in FY2022,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The bank aims to capture rising Asian wealth and support increasing Mainland China-Hong Kong and Asean-Greater China flows to deepen its regional presence and drive sustainable growth,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As the Fed rate comes close to its peak in this cycle, Lim sees limited upside for OCBC’s NIMs especially as pressure from funding costs continues to grow.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“While OCBC’s 4QFY2022 NIM improved 25 basis points (bps) q-o-q to 2.31%, management has guided for FY2023 NIM of [around] 2.0% - 2.1%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“OCBC is likely to see muted loan growth in 1QFY2023, having seen a 3% q-o-q decline during 4QFY2022. With wealth management and card fees seeing a rebound in January and February 2023, this is likely to be partially offset by Great Eastern Holdings’ (GEH) performance,” says Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Recall that 4QFY2022 saw unrealised losses at GEH due to the yield curve inversion, which was still the case as of end-March. While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Lim has lowered her earnings estimates for OCBC by 3% to 4% for FY2023 to FY2024, which she recognises as being lower than the consensus. The lowered earnings come after she cuts her NIM estimates for FY2023 and FY2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Our target price represents [around 1x FY2024, below -0.5 standard deviation (s.d.) of OCBC’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple, which we believe is a fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for OCBC’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114% and potential excess capital of [over] $5 billion during FY2023. We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114%,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Lim also sees limited upside for UOB’s NIMs as the Fed rate cycle nears its peak with pressure from funding costs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">UOB’s offering of higher fixed deposit interest rates on top of higher interest rates for its flagship current account savings accounts (CASA) compared to its peers in 2HFY2022 will weigh on its upcoming NIMs during the 1QFY2023, notes Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“[This is] as an increase in the cost of deposits offsets an increase in asset yields. While we anticipate a stronger q-o-q improvement in fee income from wealth and card fees and stronger treasury and investment income q-o-q, we believe there are still downside risks to management’s guidance for double-digit fee income growth through FY2023 in a more uncertain macroeconomic environment,” she writes.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That said, UOB’s acquisition of Citi’s consumer businesses in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam will allow the bank to accelerate, scale up, and deepen its Asean franchise.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Her new target price for UOB represents around 1x FY2024, near -0.5 s.d. of UOB’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In her report, Lim believes this is a “fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for UOB’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe the downside to UOB’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 98%,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">UOB and OCBC will be releasing their 1QFY2023 results on April 27 and May 10 respectively. DBS will release its results on May 2.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Shares in OCBC and UOB closed at $12.82 and $29.58 respectively.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1655096814160","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DBS Downgrades OCBC and UOB to \"Hold\" As It Sees \"Limited Catalysts for Now\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDBS Downgrades OCBC and UOB to \"Hold\" As It Sees \"Limited Catalysts for Now\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-24 17:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-downgrades-ocbc-and-uob-hold-it-sees-limited-catalysts-now><strong>The Edge Singapore</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) to “hold” as she sees limited catalysts for both banks for now.Lim ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-downgrades-ocbc-and-uob-hold-it-sees-limited-catalysts-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"U11.SI":"大华银行","O39.SI":"华侨银行"},"source_url":"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-downgrades-ocbc-and-uob-hold-it-sees-limited-catalysts-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175829315","content_text":"DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) to “hold” as she sees limited catalysts for both banks for now.Lim has also lowered her target price estimates. OCBC’s target price is now at $13 from $14 previously while UOB’s target price is at $30.30, down from $34.20 previously.Higher downside risks for Singapore banking sector overallIn an overall report on the Singapore banking sector dated April 20, Lim notes several higher downside risks ahead such as limited upside for net interest margins (NIMs).“As [the] US Federal Reserve (US Fed) comes close to a peak in this interest rate cycle, we believe there are limited upside for NIMs going forward for Singapore banks, especially as pressures from funding costs continue,” she writes.Economists from DBS Group Research expect the US Fed to hike rates once more during the 2Q2023 to 5.25%, which is the terminal rate for the current rate hike cycle.The analyst also sees increasing downside risks from potential rate cuts in FY2023 should a recession force the Fed to cut rates.“Singapore Banks have seen strong q-o-q NIM expansion since 1QFY2022, with 4QFY2022 NIMs hitting a decade high as interest rates soared. However, stronger deposit pressures seen during 1QFY2023 will likely lead to an even more muted q-o-q NIM expansion ahead, and possibly deterioration across the banks,” she says.Amid a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, the analyst sees loan growth and recovery in non-interest income may be “weaker than hoped for”.“Industry loan growth continues to be weak as system loans contracted by -1.1% year-to-date (ytd) as of end-February,” she writes.“We expect Singapore banks to see muted loan growth of 0% to 1% q-o-q during 1QFY2023. While the banks have largely seen an improvement in wealth management activities during January and February 2023, March 2023 saw volatile and risk-off markets as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse troubles hit the markets,” she adds.In addition, Lim believes that market activities are unlikely to rebound back to its FY2021 levels in the near future, in part due to the increasing global economic uncertainties.Furthermore, asset quality risks continue to be on the rise through FY2023 as recession risks become more imminent and geopolitical tensions continue to increase alongside an inflationary environment.As it is, Singapore’s economy has already begun to see a sharper-than-expected slowdown during the 1Q2023 alongside US banks, which are increasingly starting to price a recession in the 2H2023 in their outlook.“We believe there is further downside from higher specific provisions as the economy starts to slow, though banks may reverse some general provisions to buffer credit costs,” says Lim.That said, all three banks began the current cycle with strong provisions buffers and now have non-performing asset (NPA) coverage ratios of 98% to 122%. “[This is] a key support to valuations in our view which limits downside.”“As Fed comes close to a peak in this cycle with potential rate cuts looming in 2HFY2024, with limited NIM upside, a more muted loan growth and non-interest income on the cards, amidst increasing asset quality risks, we cut FY2023-FY2024 earnings by 3%-4% for the banks,” says Lim.“We believe Singapore banks’ strong provisions buffer, strong dividend yield of [over] 5% and excess capital (room for dividend upside) will limit downside in the near term, lest a global recession or banking crisis happen,” she adds.‘Hold’ for OCBC and UOBIn a separate report for OCBC also dated April 20, the analyst feels OCBC’s earnings may have peaked after the bank benefitted “significantly” from the enhancement of its franchise value after it acquired Wing Hang Bank in 2014.“[This is] given that Greater China continues to be management’s focus as a key market outside Singapore, contributing close to 15% of the group’s income in FY2022,” she says.“The bank aims to capture rising Asian wealth and support increasing Mainland China-Hong Kong and Asean-Greater China flows to deepen its regional presence and drive sustainable growth,” she adds.As the Fed rate comes close to its peak in this cycle, Lim sees limited upside for OCBC’s NIMs especially as pressure from funding costs continues to grow.“While OCBC’s 4QFY2022 NIM improved 25 basis points (bps) q-o-q to 2.31%, management has guided for FY2023 NIM of [around] 2.0% - 2.1%.“OCBC is likely to see muted loan growth in 1QFY2023, having seen a 3% q-o-q decline during 4QFY2022. With wealth management and card fees seeing a rebound in January and February 2023, this is likely to be partially offset by Great Eastern Holdings’ (GEH) performance,” says Lim.“Recall that 4QFY2022 saw unrealised losses at GEH due to the yield curve inversion, which was still the case as of end-March. While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.Lim has lowered her earnings estimates for OCBC by 3% to 4% for FY2023 to FY2024, which she recognises as being lower than the consensus. The lowered earnings come after she cuts her NIM estimates for FY2023 and FY2024.“Our target price represents [around 1x FY2024, below -0.5 standard deviation (s.d.) of OCBC’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple, which we believe is a fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for OCBC’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks,” she says.“We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114% and potential excess capital of [over] $5 billion during FY2023. We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114%,” she adds.Lim also sees limited upside for UOB’s NIMs as the Fed rate cycle nears its peak with pressure from funding costs.UOB’s offering of higher fixed deposit interest rates on top of higher interest rates for its flagship current account savings accounts (CASA) compared to its peers in 2HFY2022 will weigh on its upcoming NIMs during the 1QFY2023, notes Lim.“[This is] as an increase in the cost of deposits offsets an increase in asset yields. While we anticipate a stronger q-o-q improvement in fee income from wealth and card fees and stronger treasury and investment income q-o-q, we believe there are still downside risks to management’s guidance for double-digit fee income growth through FY2023 in a more uncertain macroeconomic environment,” she writes.“While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.That said, UOB’s acquisition of Citi’s consumer businesses in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam will allow the bank to accelerate, scale up, and deepen its Asean franchise.Her new target price for UOB represents around 1x FY2024, near -0.5 s.d. of UOB’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple.In her report, Lim believes this is a “fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for UOB’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks.”“We believe the downside to UOB’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 98%,” she says.UOB and OCBC will be releasing their 1QFY2023 results on April 27 and May 10 respectively. DBS will release its results on May 2.Shares in OCBC and UOB closed at $12.82 and $29.58 respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944518029,"gmtCreate":1681912768761,"gmtModify":1681912773182,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944518029","repostId":"1142957366","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945832437,"gmtCreate":1681425549429,"gmtModify":1681425551876,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945832437","repostId":"2327422131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2327422131","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681388403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2327422131?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-13 20:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CPI报告吹响终场哨声！美联储要赢了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2327422131","media":"金十数据","summary":"最新公布的CPI报告对于美联储和美国人的钱包来说，无疑是个好消息，更重要的是，这还释放出一个重要信号……","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>最新公布的CPI报告对于美联储和美国人的钱包来说，无疑是个好消息，更重要的是，这还释放出一个重要信号……</blockquote><p>对美联储和美国人的钱包来说，情况看起来正在好转。</p><p>周三，美国劳工统计局的最新报告显示<strong>，CPI衡量的通胀率下降了整整一个百分点</strong>。作为衡量通胀的指标之一，CPI年率从2月份的6.0%暴跌至3月份的5.0%，这是自2021年5月以来的最低水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01f4a22ef1c92ac98482b9f1298cb957\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"841\"/></p><p>对美联储来说这是个好消息，因为它正在继续努力让通胀回到2%的目标水平。<strong>尽管美国要实现这一目标还有很长的路要走，但最新的经济数据显示，美联储的持续加息正在发挥作用，美联储正赢得通胀战争。</strong></p><p>PCE（个人消费支出）价格指数是美联储密切关注的另一个通胀指标，<strong>该指标也显示出令人鼓舞的迹象</strong>。与1月份相比，该指数2月份的环比增速较低，同比增速也显示出，这一通胀指标在很大程度上一直在下降。</p><p>美联储也一直在寻找劳动力市场收紧的迹象，它可能也看到了。美国3月份新增就业岗位23.6万个，增幅低于前几个月，<strong>就业市场增速放缓至依然强劲但未过热的水平，正是美联储一直在寻求的结果。</strong></p><p>Indeed Hiring Lab北美地区经济研究主管邦克（Nick Bunker）表示：</p><blockquote>“即使增长放缓，劳动力市场仍在快速发展。”</blockquote><p><strong>很明显，美国经济正在朝着正确的方向前进</strong>，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔因其持续加息以及此举可能引发失业和最终的经济衰退而面临民主党议员的批评。例如在美联储3月加息后，参议员沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）公开表示：</p><blockquote>“鲍威尔犯了一个错误，他没有暂停其极端的加息。几个月来，我一直警告说，美联储目前的做法可能会让数百万美国人失去工作。我们有很多工具来对抗通胀，同时又不会把经济推下悬崖。”</blockquote><p>但鲍威尔在今年3月的新闻发布会上表示，在实现降低通胀目标方面他不会退缩，他声称：</p><blockquote>“因为我们知道，从长远来看，这是最有利于人民的事情。”</blockquote><p>尽管美联储今年不打算降息，但<strong>最新的经济数据暗示美联储可能即将暂停加息。</strong>芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周二在芝加哥经济俱乐部表示，在硅谷银行倒闭带来的“金融压力”之后，“正确的货币政策需要谨慎和耐心”。他表示：</p><blockquote>“鉴于这些金融逆风走向的不确定性很大，我认为我们需要保持谨慎。我们应该收集进一步的数据，并且在我们看到逆风在降低通胀方面起到多大帮助之前，对过于激进的加息应持谨慎态度。”</blockquote><p>硅谷银行的崩溃加剧了对暂停加息的呼吁，因为这一崩溃引发了经济的不确定性。虽然鲍威尔声称银行体系“稳健而有弹性”，但崩溃的后果可能是“相当于加息，甚至可能还不止于此”，因为企业和家庭的信贷条件可能会收紧。</p><p>可以肯定的是，<strong>虽然3月份整体CPI走低是好消息，但房价和公寓租金仍在高速上涨</strong>。与此同时，3月份剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比涨幅略高于2月份，这在很大程度上是受住房价格上涨的推动。</p><p>不确定性仍存在。硅谷银行的倒闭可能会使金融状况变得更加严峻，企业和消费者的借贷和支出可能减缓，但过高的核心通胀可能会迫使美联储继续加息，<strong>这意味着经济衰退的可能性依然存在</strong>。</p><p>不过，美联储仍在寻找支持潜在暂停加息所需的数据，因此，<strong>看起来美国更有可能避免严重的经济衰退</strong>。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI报告吹响终场哨声！美联储要赢了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI报告吹响终场哨声！美联储要赢了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-13 20:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=110312&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最新公布的CPI报告对于美联储和美国人的钱包来说，无疑是个好消息，更重要的是，这还释放出一个重要信号……对美联储和美国人的钱包来说，情况看起来正在好转。周三，美国劳工统计局的最新报告显示，CPI衡量的通胀率下降了整整一个百分点。作为衡量通胀的指标之一，CPI年率从2月份的6.0%暴跌至3月份的5.0%，这是自2021年5月以来的最低水平。对美联储来说这是个好消息，因为它正在继续努力让通胀回到2%的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=110312&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87d9a839d3b8f535281b72db3c3cfd0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=110312&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2327422131","content_text":"最新公布的CPI报告对于美联储和美国人的钱包来说，无疑是个好消息，更重要的是，这还释放出一个重要信号……对美联储和美国人的钱包来说，情况看起来正在好转。周三，美国劳工统计局的最新报告显示，CPI衡量的通胀率下降了整整一个百分点。作为衡量通胀的指标之一，CPI年率从2月份的6.0%暴跌至3月份的5.0%，这是自2021年5月以来的最低水平。对美联储来说这是个好消息，因为它正在继续努力让通胀回到2%的目标水平。尽管美国要实现这一目标还有很长的路要走，但最新的经济数据显示，美联储的持续加息正在发挥作用，美联储正赢得通胀战争。PCE（个人消费支出）价格指数是美联储密切关注的另一个通胀指标，该指标也显示出令人鼓舞的迹象。与1月份相比，该指数2月份的环比增速较低，同比增速也显示出，这一通胀指标在很大程度上一直在下降。美联储也一直在寻找劳动力市场收紧的迹象，它可能也看到了。美国3月份新增就业岗位23.6万个，增幅低于前几个月，就业市场增速放缓至依然强劲但未过热的水平，正是美联储一直在寻求的结果。Indeed Hiring Lab北美地区经济研究主管邦克（Nick Bunker）表示：“即使增长放缓，劳动力市场仍在快速发展。”很明显，美国经济正在朝着正确的方向前进，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔因其持续加息以及此举可能引发失业和最终的经济衰退而面临民主党议员的批评。例如在美联储3月加息后，参议员沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）公开表示：“鲍威尔犯了一个错误，他没有暂停其极端的加息。几个月来，我一直警告说，美联储目前的做法可能会让数百万美国人失去工作。我们有很多工具来对抗通胀，同时又不会把经济推下悬崖。”但鲍威尔在今年3月的新闻发布会上表示，在实现降低通胀目标方面他不会退缩，他声称：“因为我们知道，从长远来看，这是最有利于人民的事情。”尽管美联储今年不打算降息，但最新的经济数据暗示美联储可能即将暂停加息。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周二在芝加哥经济俱乐部表示，在硅谷银行倒闭带来的“金融压力”之后，“正确的货币政策需要谨慎和耐心”。他表示：“鉴于这些金融逆风走向的不确定性很大，我认为我们需要保持谨慎。我们应该收集进一步的数据，并且在我们看到逆风在降低通胀方面起到多大帮助之前，对过于激进的加息应持谨慎态度。”硅谷银行的崩溃加剧了对暂停加息的呼吁，因为这一崩溃引发了经济的不确定性。虽然鲍威尔声称银行体系“稳健而有弹性”，但崩溃的后果可能是“相当于加息，甚至可能还不止于此”，因为企业和家庭的信贷条件可能会收紧。可以肯定的是，虽然3月份整体CPI走低是好消息，但房价和公寓租金仍在高速上涨。与此同时，3月份剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比涨幅略高于2月份，这在很大程度上是受住房价格上涨的推动。不确定性仍存在。硅谷银行的倒闭可能会使金融状况变得更加严峻，企业和消费者的借贷和支出可能减缓，但过高的核心通胀可能会迫使美联储继续加息，这意味着经济衰退的可能性依然存在。不过，美联储仍在寻找支持潜在暂停加息所需的数据，因此，看起来美国更有可能避免严重的经济衰退。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942645516,"gmtCreate":1681221043535,"gmtModify":1681221048475,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942645516","repostId":"1166375973","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942607760,"gmtCreate":1681199761151,"gmtModify":1681199765186,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942607760","repostId":"1178187404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1178187404","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681186000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178187404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-11 12:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权大单 | 芯片股狂欢，美光科技看涨期权大增！利好利空齐到，Tilray“很尴尬”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178187404","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美东时间周一（4月10日），期权市场总成交量达28,333,960张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；芯片股狂欢，美光科技、英伟达看涨期权大增。一、市场概览美东时间周一（4月10日），市场等待通胀","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>摘要：美东时间周一（4月10日），期权市场总成交量达28,333,960张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；芯片股狂欢，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>看涨期权大增。</strong></blockquote><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>美东时间周一（4月10日），市场等待通胀数据和财报，美股周一收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.30%，纳斯达克指数跌0.03%，标普500指数涨0.10%。</p><p>交易员普遍认为上周末公布的3月非农就业数据将促使美联储继续加息，在5月会议上至少将加息四分之一个基点。本周投资者关注重要的CPI与PPI通胀数据，以及多家大型银行的财报。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e34c718b662f07f55771820b650c1150\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p>周一，期权市场总成交量达28,333,960张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87dc35490e7d5db4ad913cf923509ffb\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1801\" tg-height=\"390\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交689.5万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比53%。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da827f856828e5e0eb532cb6fee64850\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1592\" tg-height=\"407\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ddde414eca14656867ca471640f973\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></strong>周一下跌1.6%，报162.03美元。期权合约成交73.11万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的55%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为162.50美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为72,686张。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55fa663853f1fe229d27ec4a642313d6\" alt=\"\"/></p><blockquote>消息方面：需求低迷，苹果公司一季度PC出货量下降40%。根据IDC的最新报告显示，今年一季度全球前5大电脑制造商的出货量均出现不同程度的下降，总体来看，环比下降29%至5690万台，明显低于2019一季度的5920万台及2018年一季度的6060万台。其中，苹果2023年一季度PC出货量暴跌超40%。</blockquote><p><strong>复活节周末的收入创下“历史新高”，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></strong>周一涨近7%，报5.24美元。期权合约成交67.57万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的53%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为5.50美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为62,392张。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ae9b819ff27590f6a1a596126023cb\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"273\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>英伟达</strong>周一上涨2%，报275.79美元。期权合约成交73.11万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的47%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为280美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为32,872张。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e9e34138a5d04ed6d0d51206a0bc634\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1649\" tg-height=\"273\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>三、异动观察</strong><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8dbdf353210dc56d9ddf9f256efafa\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"494\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>美光科技</strong>周一大涨8%创逾一年来最大涨幅，报63.27美元。2023年4月14日到期行权价为67美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为20,216张。<strong>这意味着在期权市场中，投资者本周继续看多该股。</strong><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ea774aabfbcac23ab22bb4b3aca6fd\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><blockquote>消息面上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>计划近期削减内存芯片产量，消息提振美光科技，分析师认为此举可能会加速内存芯片行业的复苏。</blockquote><p><strong>利好利空“同步”来袭，Tilray</strong>周一涨超5%，报2.74美元。但该股盘后下挫5%，投资者需要留意！Tilray2023年4月14日到期行权价为3美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为23,207张。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db510f4099bfaee73d0e2046bf3b378f\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"272\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><blockquote>消息方面：Tilray宣布了与Hexo Corp.的收购协议；公司2023财年第三季度收入低于预期。</blockquote><p><strong>Ally</strong>周一涨近1%，报26.30美元。2023年4月21日到期行权价为24美元<strong>看跌期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为22,226张。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8232c52ef471f6846ebee841c3c71b\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权大单 | 芯片股狂欢，美光科技看涨期权大增！利好利空齐到，Tilray“很尴尬”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权大单 | 芯片股狂欢，美光科技看涨期权大增！利好利空齐到，Tilray“很尴尬”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-11 12:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>摘要：美东时间周一（4月10日），期权市场总成交量达28,333,960张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；芯片股狂欢，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>看涨期权大增。</strong></blockquote><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>美东时间周一（4月10日），市场等待通胀数据和财报，美股周一收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.30%，纳斯达克指数跌0.03%，标普500指数涨0.10%。</p><p>交易员普遍认为上周末公布的3月非农就业数据将促使美联储继续加息，在5月会议上至少将加息四分之一个基点。本周投资者关注重要的CPI与PPI通胀数据，以及多家大型银行的财报。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e34c718b662f07f55771820b650c1150\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p>周一，期权市场总成交量达28,333,960张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87dc35490e7d5db4ad913cf923509ffb\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1801\" tg-height=\"390\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交689.5万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比53%。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da827f856828e5e0eb532cb6fee64850\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1592\" tg-height=\"407\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ddde414eca14656867ca471640f973\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></strong>周一下跌1.6%，报162.03美元。期权合约成交73.11万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的55%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为162.50美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为72,686张。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55fa663853f1fe229d27ec4a642313d6\" alt=\"\"/></p><blockquote>消息方面：需求低迷，苹果公司一季度PC出货量下降40%。根据IDC的最新报告显示，今年一季度全球前5大电脑制造商的出货量均出现不同程度的下降，总体来看，环比下降29%至5690万台，明显低于2019一季度的5920万台及2018年一季度的6060万台。其中，苹果2023年一季度PC出货量暴跌超40%。</blockquote><p><strong>复活节周末的收入创下“历史新高”，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></strong>周一涨近7%，报5.24美元。期权合约成交67.57万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的53%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为5.50美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为62,392张。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ae9b819ff27590f6a1a596126023cb\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"273\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>英伟达</strong>周一上涨2%，报275.79美元。期权合约成交73.11万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的47%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为280美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为32,872张。<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e9e34138a5d04ed6d0d51206a0bc634\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1649\" tg-height=\"273\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>三、异动观察</strong><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8dbdf353210dc56d9ddf9f256efafa\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"494\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><strong>美光科技</strong>周一大涨8%创逾一年来最大涨幅，报63.27美元。2023年4月14日到期行权价为67美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为20,216张。<strong>这意味着在期权市场中，投资者本周继续看多该股。</strong><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24ea774aabfbcac23ab22bb4b3aca6fd\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><blockquote>消息面上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>计划近期削减内存芯片产量，消息提振美光科技，分析师认为此举可能会加速内存芯片行业的复苏。</blockquote><p><strong>利好利空“同步”来袭，Tilray</strong>周一涨超5%，报2.74美元。但该股盘后下挫5%，投资者需要留意！Tilray2023年4月14日到期行权价为3美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为23,207张。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db510f4099bfaee73d0e2046bf3b378f\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"272\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><blockquote>消息方面：Tilray宣布了与Hexo Corp.的收购协议；公司2023财年第三季度收入低于预期。</blockquote><p><strong>Ally</strong>周一涨近1%，报26.30美元。2023年4月21日到期行权价为24美元<strong>看跌期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为22,226张。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8232c52ef471f6846ebee841c3c71b\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","MU":"美光科技","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4007":"制药","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4557":"大麻股","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","BK4141":"半导体产品","SPY":"标普500ETF","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","ALLY":"Ally Financial Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4512":"苹果概念","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178187404","content_text":"摘要：美东时间周一（4月10日），期权市场总成交量达28,333,960张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；芯片股狂欢，美光科技、英伟达看涨期权大增。一、市场概览美东时间周一（4月10日），市场等待通胀数据和财报，美股周一收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.30%，纳斯达克指数跌0.03%，标普500指数涨0.10%。交易员普遍认为上周末公布的3月非农就业数据将促使美联储继续加息，在5月会议上至少将加息四分之一个基点。本周投资者关注重要的CPI与PPI通胀数据，以及多家大型银行的财报。数据来源：老虎国际周一，期权市场总成交量达28,333,960张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。数据来源：Market Chameleon标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交689.5万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比53%。数据来源：Market Chameleon二、期权成交总量TOP10数据来源：老虎国际苹果周一下跌1.6%，报162.03美元。期权合约成交73.11万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的55%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为162.50美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为72,686张。消息方面：需求低迷，苹果公司一季度PC出货量下降40%。根据IDC的最新报告显示，今年一季度全球前5大电脑制造商的出货量均出现不同程度的下降，总体来看，环比下降29%至5690万台，明显低于2019一季度的5920万台及2018年一季度的6060万台。其中，苹果2023年一季度PC出货量暴跌超40%。复活节周末的收入创下“历史新高”，AMC院线周一涨近7%，报5.24美元。期权合约成交67.57万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的53%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为5.50美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为62,392张。数据来源：Market Chameleon英伟达周一上涨2%，报275.79美元。期权合约成交73.11万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的47%。2023年4月14日到期行权价为280美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为32,872张。数据来源：Market Chameleon三、异动观察数据来源：Market Chameleon美光科技周一大涨8%创逾一年来最大涨幅，报63.27美元。2023年4月14日到期行权价为67美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为20,216张。这意味着在期权市场中，投资者本周继续看多该股。数据来源：Market Chameleon消息面上，三星计划近期削减内存芯片产量，消息提振美光科技，分析师认为此举可能会加速内存芯片行业的复苏。利好利空“同步”来袭，Tilray周一涨超5%，报2.74美元。但该股盘后下挫5%，投资者需要留意！Tilray2023年4月14日到期行权价为3美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为23,207张。数据来源：Market Chameleon消息方面：Tilray宣布了与Hexo Corp.的收购协议；公司2023财年第三季度收入低于预期。Ally周一涨近1%，报26.30美元。2023年4月21日到期行权价为24美元看跌期权的成交量特别高，成交量为22,226张。数据来源：Market Chameleon","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942860330,"gmtCreate":1681181393420,"gmtModify":1681181397631,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942860330","repostId":"2326628537","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942337934,"gmtCreate":1681132877328,"gmtModify":1681132881522,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942337934","repostId":"1136504426","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136504426","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680835719,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136504426?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-07 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 美国银行股压力重重，Q1财报会有何表现？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136504426","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"鉴于最近的银行业危机，美股银行板块可谓是走势惨淡，美股银行指数在一季度下跌了近18%，录得2020年以来最差季度表现。有分析师认为，美国银行业一季度利润势将重挫，股价前景雪上加霜。美股新一轮财报季下周","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>鉴于最近的银行业危机，美股银行板块可谓是走势惨淡，美股银行指数在一季度下跌了近18%，录得2020年以来最差季度表现。有分析师认为，美国银行业一季度利润势将重挫，股价前景雪上加霜。</blockquote><p>美股新一轮财报季下周将拉开帷幕，多家银行巨头将率先发布业绩。3月以来，受SVB与瑞信危机影响，引发了业内对美国银行存款可能大幅外流的担忧，这对原本就已步履蹒跚的银行业来说，构成沉重打击。</p><p><strong>上季度业绩回顾：</strong></p><p>财报显示，华尔街六大银行去年四季度业绩出现明显分化，受美国经济将陷入衰退预期的影响，银行普遍增加信贷损失准备金，明显拖累业绩。且由于宏观经经济可能走弱，几家主要银行均增加了信贷损失准备金，盈利受到明显拖累。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9a0a8af20843a1e2274fc85120e796\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"1124\"/></p><p><strong>本季度业绩看点：</strong></p><p><strong>存贷双降</strong></p><p>在本次即将披露的财报中，首先，存款外流是这里需要关注的关键问题。没有存款，银行就无法发放贷款，因此，存款减少的银行陷入困境，而存款保持稳定或存款增加的银行可能会继续表现良好。</p><p>数据显示，截至3月22日的一周内，美国所有商业银行的存款规模减少了1257亿美元，为连续第九周下滑；25家最大银行的存款从上一周的10.74万亿美元降至10.65万亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be47973c55a00d0164ee0caa7c7f80dc\" alt=\"美国所有商业银行的存款规模\" title=\"美国所有商业银行的存款规模\" tg-width=\"1709\" tg-height=\"456\"/><span>美国所有商业银行的存款规模</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b428a1f3fcacb15781b83438caee4215\" alt=\"美国25家最大银行存款规模\" title=\"美国25家最大银行存款规模\" tg-width=\"1707\" tg-height=\"452\"/><span>美国25家最大银行存款规模</span></p><p>除了存款规模减少以外，银行贷款也创下近两年最大降幅。据美联储最新公布的H.8报告还显示，当前的这场银行业危机也正在影响商业贷款。截至3月22日当周，美国商业银行的整体贷款下降204亿美元，为2021年6月以来最大降幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5b59f32f5105e26d0310cbb7435e06\" alt=\"美国商业银行整体贷款规模\" title=\"美国商业银行整体贷款规模\" tg-width=\"1709\" tg-height=\"313\"/><span>美国商业银行整体贷款规模</span></p><p>分析人士指出，银行贷款规模的整体大幅下降，主要是因为大银行的信贷收紧．美国25家最大的银行发放了全美约六成的贷款，硅谷银行和瑞信的前车之鉴，正令这些银行在放贷上趋向谨慎。</p><p><strong>贷款损失准备金增加</strong></p><p>其次，有分析人士认为，预计银行业一季度利润将受到贷款损失准备金增加的影响。据彭博一致预期数据显示，华尔街六大行一季度整体预计贷款损失准备金达到逾70亿美元，而去年同期六大行整体贷款损失准备金不到27亿美元。</p><p>Yardeni Research首席投资策略师Ed Yardeni表示，鉴于最近的银行业危机，即使银行管理层并不那么担心贷款损失，他们可能仍想向银行业监管机构表明他们是谨慎的。他们可能更愿意淡化银行业危机对其盈利能力的影响，以安抚投资者的紧张情绪，或者至少不会过度夸大它。</p><p><strong>银行股股价会有何表现？</strong></p><p>鉴于最近的银行业危机，美股银行板块可谓是走势惨淡，美股银行指数在一季度下跌了近18%，录得2020年以来最差季度表现。有分析师认为，美国银行业一季度利润势将重挫，股价前景雪上加霜。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56edaf1b2907cd01b846b9520c29c91b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>分析师表示，银行业可能成为业绩滑坡的重灾区，一旦如此，银行股的股价经历了上月中小银行危机带来的摧残之后，势将开启新一轮跌势，富国银行分析师Mike Mayo近期就下调了多家银行业上市公司的目标股价和盈利预期，称其在流动性、资金流向以及息差收入等领域都面临压力。虽然大银行在上月的风波中幸免于难，但是其仍难逃脱业务增长放缓和美联储加息引发信贷需求下降带来的双重压力。在此状况下，银行利润重挫在所难免，其中投资银行收入更可能录得高达40%的同比降幅。</p><p><strong>业绩预测</strong></p><p>根据彭博一致预期数据显示，该行业业绩表现将持续出现分化，摩根大通和富国银行的盈利将大幅增长，而摩根士丹利、高盛、花旗预计将面临压力：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94c68723565181c6498893d350cb08b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1224\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 美国银行股压力重重，Q1财报会有何表现？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 美国银行股压力重重，Q1财报会有何表现？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-07 10:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>鉴于最近的银行业危机，美股银行板块可谓是走势惨淡，美股银行指数在一季度下跌了近18%，录得2020年以来最差季度表现。有分析师认为，美国银行业一季度利润势将重挫，股价前景雪上加霜。</blockquote><p>美股新一轮财报季下周将拉开帷幕，多家银行巨头将率先发布业绩。3月以来，受SVB与瑞信危机影响，引发了业内对美国银行存款可能大幅外流的担忧，这对原本就已步履蹒跚的银行业来说，构成沉重打击。</p><p><strong>上季度业绩回顾：</strong></p><p>财报显示，华尔街六大银行去年四季度业绩出现明显分化，受美国经济将陷入衰退预期的影响，银行普遍增加信贷损失准备金，明显拖累业绩。且由于宏观经经济可能走弱，几家主要银行均增加了信贷损失准备金，盈利受到明显拖累。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9a0a8af20843a1e2274fc85120e796\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"1124\"/></p><p><strong>本季度业绩看点：</strong></p><p><strong>存贷双降</strong></p><p>在本次即将披露的财报中，首先，存款外流是这里需要关注的关键问题。没有存款，银行就无法发放贷款，因此，存款减少的银行陷入困境，而存款保持稳定或存款增加的银行可能会继续表现良好。</p><p>数据显示，截至3月22日的一周内，美国所有商业银行的存款规模减少了1257亿美元，为连续第九周下滑；25家最大银行的存款从上一周的10.74万亿美元降至10.65万亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be47973c55a00d0164ee0caa7c7f80dc\" alt=\"美国所有商业银行的存款规模\" title=\"美国所有商业银行的存款规模\" tg-width=\"1709\" tg-height=\"456\"/><span>美国所有商业银行的存款规模</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b428a1f3fcacb15781b83438caee4215\" alt=\"美国25家最大银行存款规模\" title=\"美国25家最大银行存款规模\" tg-width=\"1707\" tg-height=\"452\"/><span>美国25家最大银行存款规模</span></p><p>除了存款规模减少以外，银行贷款也创下近两年最大降幅。据美联储最新公布的H.8报告还显示，当前的这场银行业危机也正在影响商业贷款。截至3月22日当周，美国商业银行的整体贷款下降204亿美元，为2021年6月以来最大降幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5b59f32f5105e26d0310cbb7435e06\" alt=\"美国商业银行整体贷款规模\" title=\"美国商业银行整体贷款规模\" tg-width=\"1709\" tg-height=\"313\"/><span>美国商业银行整体贷款规模</span></p><p>分析人士指出，银行贷款规模的整体大幅下降，主要是因为大银行的信贷收紧．美国25家最大的银行发放了全美约六成的贷款，硅谷银行和瑞信的前车之鉴，正令这些银行在放贷上趋向谨慎。</p><p><strong>贷款损失准备金增加</strong></p><p>其次，有分析人士认为，预计银行业一季度利润将受到贷款损失准备金增加的影响。据彭博一致预期数据显示，华尔街六大行一季度整体预计贷款损失准备金达到逾70亿美元，而去年同期六大行整体贷款损失准备金不到27亿美元。</p><p>Yardeni Research首席投资策略师Ed Yardeni表示，鉴于最近的银行业危机，即使银行管理层并不那么担心贷款损失，他们可能仍想向银行业监管机构表明他们是谨慎的。他们可能更愿意淡化银行业危机对其盈利能力的影响，以安抚投资者的紧张情绪，或者至少不会过度夸大它。</p><p><strong>银行股股价会有何表现？</strong></p><p>鉴于最近的银行业危机，美股银行板块可谓是走势惨淡，美股银行指数在一季度下跌了近18%，录得2020年以来最差季度表现。有分析师认为，美国银行业一季度利润势将重挫，股价前景雪上加霜。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56edaf1b2907cd01b846b9520c29c91b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>分析师表示，银行业可能成为业绩滑坡的重灾区，一旦如此，银行股的股价经历了上月中小银行危机带来的摧残之后，势将开启新一轮跌势，富国银行分析师Mike Mayo近期就下调了多家银行业上市公司的目标股价和盈利预期，称其在流动性、资金流向以及息差收入等领域都面临压力。虽然大银行在上月的风波中幸免于难，但是其仍难逃脱业务增长放缓和美联储加息引发信贷需求下降带来的双重压力。在此状况下，银行利润重挫在所难免，其中投资银行收入更可能录得高达40%的同比降幅。</p><p><strong>业绩预测</strong></p><p>根据彭博一致预期数据显示，该行业业绩表现将持续出现分化，摩根大通和富国银行的盈利将大幅增长，而摩根士丹利、高盛、花旗预计将面临压力：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94c68723565181c6498893d350cb08b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1224\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e95f8d8c314466bbcd01bdb562ed3f","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","WFC":"富国银行","GS":"高盛","C":"花旗","MS":"摩根士丹利","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136504426","content_text":"鉴于最近的银行业危机，美股银行板块可谓是走势惨淡，美股银行指数在一季度下跌了近18%，录得2020年以来最差季度表现。有分析师认为，美国银行业一季度利润势将重挫，股价前景雪上加霜。美股新一轮财报季下周将拉开帷幕，多家银行巨头将率先发布业绩。3月以来，受SVB与瑞信危机影响，引发了业内对美国银行存款可能大幅外流的担忧，这对原本就已步履蹒跚的银行业来说，构成沉重打击。上季度业绩回顾：财报显示，华尔街六大银行去年四季度业绩出现明显分化，受美国经济将陷入衰退预期的影响，银行普遍增加信贷损失准备金，明显拖累业绩。且由于宏观经经济可能走弱，几家主要银行均增加了信贷损失准备金，盈利受到明显拖累。本季度业绩看点：存贷双降在本次即将披露的财报中，首先，存款外流是这里需要关注的关键问题。没有存款，银行就无法发放贷款，因此，存款减少的银行陷入困境，而存款保持稳定或存款增加的银行可能会继续表现良好。数据显示，截至3月22日的一周内，美国所有商业银行的存款规模减少了1257亿美元，为连续第九周下滑；25家最大银行的存款从上一周的10.74万亿美元降至10.65万亿美元。美国所有商业银行的存款规模美国25家最大银行存款规模除了存款规模减少以外，银行贷款也创下近两年最大降幅。据美联储最新公布的H.8报告还显示，当前的这场银行业危机也正在影响商业贷款。截至3月22日当周，美国商业银行的整体贷款下降204亿美元，为2021年6月以来最大降幅。美国商业银行整体贷款规模分析人士指出，银行贷款规模的整体大幅下降，主要是因为大银行的信贷收紧．美国25家最大的银行发放了全美约六成的贷款，硅谷银行和瑞信的前车之鉴，正令这些银行在放贷上趋向谨慎。贷款损失准备金增加其次，有分析人士认为，预计银行业一季度利润将受到贷款损失准备金增加的影响。据彭博一致预期数据显示，华尔街六大行一季度整体预计贷款损失准备金达到逾70亿美元，而去年同期六大行整体贷款损失准备金不到27亿美元。Yardeni Research首席投资策略师Ed Yardeni表示，鉴于最近的银行业危机，即使银行管理层并不那么担心贷款损失，他们可能仍想向银行业监管机构表明他们是谨慎的。他们可能更愿意淡化银行业危机对其盈利能力的影响，以安抚投资者的紧张情绪，或者至少不会过度夸大它。银行股股价会有何表现？鉴于最近的银行业危机，美股银行板块可谓是走势惨淡，美股银行指数在一季度下跌了近18%，录得2020年以来最差季度表现。有分析师认为，美国银行业一季度利润势将重挫，股价前景雪上加霜。分析师表示，银行业可能成为业绩滑坡的重灾区，一旦如此，银行股的股价经历了上月中小银行危机带来的摧残之后，势将开启新一轮跌势，富国银行分析师Mike Mayo近期就下调了多家银行业上市公司的目标股价和盈利预期，称其在流动性、资金流向以及息差收入等领域都面临压力。虽然大银行在上月的风波中幸免于难，但是其仍难逃脱业务增长放缓和美联储加息引发信贷需求下降带来的双重压力。在此状况下，银行利润重挫在所难免，其中投资银行收入更可能录得高达40%的同比降幅。业绩预测根据彭博一致预期数据显示，该行业业绩表现将持续出现分化，摩根大通和富国银行的盈利将大幅增长，而摩根士丹利、高盛、花旗预计将面临压力：","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942958279,"gmtCreate":1681117013292,"gmtModify":1681117018003,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942958279","repostId":"1163154040","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163154040","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681116108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163154040?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-10 16:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动 | 美股指期货弱势震荡，美光科技盘前涨超4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163154040","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月10日，美股指期货弱势震荡，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.01%，纳指期货跌0.28%，标普500指数期货跌0.05%。美股区块链概念股盘前普涨，Marathon Digital、Riot Blockc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，美股指期货弱势震荡，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.01%，纳指期货跌0.28%，标普500指数期货跌0.05%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3186f7b63a523e6e4775bb4ab9c2b2a9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"198\"/></p><p>美股区块链概念股盘前普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>涨近1%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>盘前涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>重申了对美光的买入评级，目标价为75美元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动 | 美股指期货弱势震荡，美光科技盘前涨超4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动 | 美股指期货弱势震荡，美光科技盘前涨超4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-10 16:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，美股指期货弱势震荡，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.01%，纳指期货跌0.28%，标普500指数期货跌0.05%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3186f7b63a523e6e4775bb4ab9c2b2a9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"198\"/></p><p>美股区块链概念股盘前普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>涨近1%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>盘前涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>重申了对美光的买入评级，目标价为75美元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","MU":"美光科技","BK4141":"半导体产品","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4539":"次新股","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","C":"花旗","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","BK4575":"芯片概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163154040","content_text":"4月10日，美股指期货弱势震荡，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.01%，纳指期货跌0.28%，标普500指数期货跌0.05%。美股区块链概念股盘前普涨，Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain涨超2%，Bit Digital涨超1%，Coinbase涨近1%；美光科技盘前涨超4%，花旗重申了对美光的买入评级，目标价为75美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946073301,"gmtCreate":1680827392004,"gmtModify":1680827394609,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946073301","repostId":"1124955777","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941425855,"gmtCreate":1680559247077,"gmtModify":1680559251922,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941425855","repostId":"1192741388","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941626695,"gmtCreate":1680215240218,"gmtModify":1680215243916,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941626695","repostId":"2323678027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2323678027","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680170043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323678027?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 17:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323678027","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！</blockquote><p>RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：</p><blockquote>“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”</blockquote><p>罗伯维兹称，<strong>押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。</strong></p><p>美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。</p><p>就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。<strong>如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。</strong></p><p><strong>降息总是“哀鸿遍野”</strong></p><p>自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。<strong>标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03a5178e50b7a4dce343ded734f8f37\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"417\"/></p><p>最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。</p><p>那么，<strong>为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？</strong>因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。</p><p><strong>在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境</strong>。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f0eeae55291adb1bc75e929c0c8da3\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"534\"/></p><p><strong>当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。</strong>正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。</p><p><strong>美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌</strong></p><p>鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，<strong>与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？</strong></p><p>下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，<strong>加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%</strong>，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46b1c2dfa074f9f1ebff7f403c4a0ffa\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，<strong>还有两个需要考虑的因素</strong>。</p><p>首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。<strong>这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f50898eeee026c0a6ffd62ae6458b47\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，<strong>最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的</strong>，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。</p><p><em>注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2d76a2c5ad5be94c5856d8b792390a\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"536\"/></p><p>目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但<strong>估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平</strong>，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：</p><blockquote>“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”</blockquote><p><strong>市场对降息的预期并不现实</strong></p><p>美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。<strong>如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题</strong>。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，<strong>无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。</strong></p><p>关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。</p><p>下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而<strong>过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361e1e203de45df7c9ee78346425ff90\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-30 17:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323678027","content_text":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。降息总是“哀鸿遍野”自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。那么，为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，还有两个需要考虑的因素。首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”市场对降息的预期并不现实美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941639195,"gmtCreate":1680183290218,"gmtModify":1680183294088,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941639195","repostId":"1146780615","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943508600,"gmtCreate":1679529863201,"gmtModify":1679529865489,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943508600","repostId":"2321891580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2321891580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679526139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2321891580?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-23 07:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条 | 连续9次！美联储再加息25个百分点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321891580","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　美联储周三宣布加息25个基点，表达了对近期银行业危机的谨慎态度，并暗示加息即将结束。　　FOMC会后声明称：“委员会将密切监控新传来的信息，并评估其对货币政策的影响。”　　美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，12月料增0.5%。　　美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在本月美国有三家银行倒闭后，美联储准备“使用我们所有的工具”来保持银行系统安全、稳固和高效。当时美联储还制定了一项针对银行的新贷款计划，并引发了激烈政治争议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、美联储加息25个基点，下调未来两年美国GDP预期</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、鲍威尔：美联储将“使用所有工具”来保护银行体系</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、美财长耶伦将强调银行所有者和债券持有人不受政府保护</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、瑞银将回购欧元计价“自救”债券 给投资者一个止损机会</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、分析师称美联储是银行业危机“祸首” 未来1-2年恐有大量银行不复存在</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、华尔街认为银行业陷入困境之际 美联储的加息已尽可能鹰派</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436ce60db439214505de766a8ff983d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美联储加息25个基点，下调未来两年美国GDP预期</b></p><p>美联储周三宣布加息25个基点，表达了对近期银行业危机的谨慎态度，并暗示加息即将结束。</p><p>这是自2022年3月以来的第九次加息，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）指出，未来的加息并不确定，将在很大程度上取决于未来的数据。</p><p>FOMC会后声明称：“委员会将密切监控新传来的信息，并评估其对货币政策的影响。”“委员会预计，一些额外的政策收紧可能是适当的，以达到一种足够严格的货币政策立场，随着时间的推移，使通胀恢复到2%。”</p><p>美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，12月料增0.5%。下调美国2024年GDP增长预期至1.2%，12月料增1.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a58a35f86e69d1d10b9bc345a43c52e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>鲍威尔：美联储将“使用所有工具”来保护银行体系</b></p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在本月美国有三家银行倒闭后，美联储准备“使用我们所有的工具”来保持银行系统安全、稳固和高效。</p><p>鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上表示，有必要继续监控，以更好地缓解“少数银行的严重困难”。</p><p>“银行系统稳固且有韧性，”鲍威尔在回答有关存款从各种中型银行外流的问题时表示。他补充说，金融系统资本金和流动性充足。</p><p>鲍威尔强调了监管机构本月早些时候为平息担忧而采取的非常措施。当时美联储还制定了一项针对银行的新贷款计划，并引发了激烈政治争议。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/659aa2eccb8583113b463096f49f4dc2\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美财长耶伦将强调银行所有者和债券持有人不受政府保护</b></p><p>美国财政部长耶伦计划周三在国会维护拜登政府旨在增强对美国银行业信心的行动，并强调并未向任何倒闭的银行的所有者或投资者提供救助。</p><p>耶伦表示，“重要的是要明确：倒闭银行的股东和债务持有人不受政府的保护。”</p><p>“这些银行的处置程序所造成的损失不由纳税人承担，”她补充说，“对存款的保护由存款保险基金提供，而该基金的资金来源是受保银行的保费。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004ce7c27bb2d85c1cb3d340b3ad1c4b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>瑞银将回购欧元计价“自救”债券 给投资者一个止损机会</b></p><p>瑞银集团计划回购其在同意收购瑞信的前几天所发行“自救”（bail-in）债券。</p><p>为了缓解市场对收购交易风险的担忧，瑞银向持有30亿美元优先债的债权人提出了回购请求。虽然股东们为瑞银能以极低价购得瑞信欢呼雀跃，但瑞银的债券价格最近几天持续下跌，信用评级公司也下调了对该行债券的评级展望。</p><p>过去两年股价稳步上涨的瑞银将花数年时间完成与瑞信复杂的整合重组，削减至少80亿美元成本。但该行认为这个代价值得，因为有助于财富管理业务进一步壮大，而且并购交易的负商誉有560亿瑞郎，瑞士政府还对部分损失提供担保。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dfeb9620496bf9cdfb56406901a6f9a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>分析师称美联储是银行业危机“祸首” 未来1-2年恐有大量银行不复存在</b></p><p>银行业危机当前，资产管理和金融业众多高管周三齐聚伦敦的投资会议，探讨包括当前危机在内的诸多议题。</p><p>“的确，我们并不处在银行大规模挤兑的边缘，但会有非常非常重大的后果，”Stanhope Capital首席执行官Daniel Pinto在接受采访时表示。他说道，这将会包括合并，尤其是在美国，以及银行业务更为专注。</p><p>“我得说，罪魁祸首是美联储，”Pinto说道。“八个月内将利率从零提高到4.75%，很可能还会到5%，是不负责任的，也没有必要。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3445f0cfc38858e09a782eef374382c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>华尔街认为银行业陷入困境之际 美联储的加息已尽可能鹰派</b></p><p>华尔街普遍预期美联储将加息25个基点，而事实也的确如此。但股市投资者对相互矛盾的信息有争议：政策指引从“持续”加息变成“一些额外的”政策紧缩，尽管主席鲍威尔称美联储并未束手束脚。</p><p>股市随之先涨后跌。美国国债和美元下跌。由于美联储对失业率和通胀的预期基本不变，美联储的经济预测摘要对投资者没多大用处。</p><p>虽然鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，决策者会前考虑过暂停加息，但美联储在关注银行体系形势发展的同时仍把重点放在高通胀风险上。 “如果我们需要把利率提得更高，我们就会做，”他说。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条 | 连续9次！美联储再加息25个百分点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条 | 连续9次！美联储再加息25个百分点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-23 07:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-23/doc-imymuxpn9749588.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储加息25个基点，下调未来两年美国GDP预期2、鲍威尔：美联储将“使用所有工具”来保护银行体系3、美财长耶伦将强调银行所有者和债券持有人不受政府保护4、瑞银将回购欧元计价“自救”债券 给投资者一个止损机会5、分析师称美联储是银行业危机“祸首” 未来1-2年恐有大量银行不复存在6、华尔街认为银行业陷入困境之际 美联储的加息已尽可能鹰派美联储加息...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-23/doc-imymuxpn9749588.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436ce60db439214505de766a8ff983d8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-23/doc-imymuxpn9749588.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2321891580","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储加息25个基点，下调未来两年美国GDP预期2、鲍威尔：美联储将“使用所有工具”来保护银行体系3、美财长耶伦将强调银行所有者和债券持有人不受政府保护4、瑞银将回购欧元计价“自救”债券 给投资者一个止损机会5、分析师称美联储是银行业危机“祸首” 未来1-2年恐有大量银行不复存在6、华尔街认为银行业陷入困境之际 美联储的加息已尽可能鹰派美联储加息25个基点，下调未来两年美国GDP预期美联储周三宣布加息25个基点，表达了对近期银行业危机的谨慎态度，并暗示加息即将结束。这是自2022年3月以来的第九次加息，制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）指出，未来的加息并不确定，将在很大程度上取决于未来的数据。FOMC会后声明称：“委员会将密切监控新传来的信息，并评估其对货币政策的影响。”“委员会预计，一些额外的政策收紧可能是适当的，以达到一种足够严格的货币政策立场，随着时间的推移，使通胀恢复到2%。”美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，12月料增0.5%。下调美国2024年GDP增长预期至1.2%，12月料增1.6%。鲍威尔：美联储将“使用所有工具”来保护银行体系美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在本月美国有三家银行倒闭后，美联储准备“使用我们所有的工具”来保持银行系统安全、稳固和高效。鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上表示，有必要继续监控，以更好地缓解“少数银行的严重困难”。“银行系统稳固且有韧性，”鲍威尔在回答有关存款从各种中型银行外流的问题时表示。他补充说，金融系统资本金和流动性充足。鲍威尔强调了监管机构本月早些时候为平息担忧而采取的非常措施。当时美联储还制定了一项针对银行的新贷款计划，并引发了激烈政治争议。美财长耶伦将强调银行所有者和债券持有人不受政府保护美国财政部长耶伦计划周三在国会维护拜登政府旨在增强对美国银行业信心的行动，并强调并未向任何倒闭的银行的所有者或投资者提供救助。耶伦表示，“重要的是要明确：倒闭银行的股东和债务持有人不受政府的保护。”“这些银行的处置程序所造成的损失不由纳税人承担，”她补充说，“对存款的保护由存款保险基金提供，而该基金的资金来源是受保银行的保费。”瑞银将回购欧元计价“自救”债券 给投资者一个止损机会瑞银集团计划回购其在同意收购瑞信的前几天所发行“自救”（bail-in）债券。为了缓解市场对收购交易风险的担忧，瑞银向持有30亿美元优先债的债权人提出了回购请求。虽然股东们为瑞银能以极低价购得瑞信欢呼雀跃，但瑞银的债券价格最近几天持续下跌，信用评级公司也下调了对该行债券的评级展望。过去两年股价稳步上涨的瑞银将花数年时间完成与瑞信复杂的整合重组，削减至少80亿美元成本。但该行认为这个代价值得，因为有助于财富管理业务进一步壮大，而且并购交易的负商誉有560亿瑞郎，瑞士政府还对部分损失提供担保。分析师称美联储是银行业危机“祸首” 未来1-2年恐有大量银行不复存在银行业危机当前，资产管理和金融业众多高管周三齐聚伦敦的投资会议，探讨包括当前危机在内的诸多议题。“的确，我们并不处在银行大规模挤兑的边缘，但会有非常非常重大的后果，”Stanhope Capital首席执行官Daniel Pinto在接受采访时表示。他说道，这将会包括合并，尤其是在美国，以及银行业务更为专注。“我得说，罪魁祸首是美联储，”Pinto说道。“八个月内将利率从零提高到4.75%，很可能还会到5%，是不负责任的，也没有必要。”华尔街认为银行业陷入困境之际 美联储的加息已尽可能鹰派华尔街普遍预期美联储将加息25个基点，而事实也的确如此。但股市投资者对相互矛盾的信息有争议：政策指引从“持续”加息变成“一些额外的”政策紧缩，尽管主席鲍威尔称美联储并未束手束脚。股市随之先涨后跌。美国国债和美元下跌。由于美联储对失业率和通胀的预期基本不变，美联储的经济预测摘要对投资者没多大用处。虽然鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，决策者会前考虑过暂停加息，但美联储在关注银行体系形势发展的同时仍把重点放在高通胀风险上。 “如果我们需要把利率提得更高，我们就会做，”他说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949997950,"gmtCreate":1678286840270,"gmtModify":1678286844025,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949997950","repostId":"1176864701","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176864701","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678277738,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176864701?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前 | 三大股指期货转跌，两大风险事件今夜来袭","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176864701","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，美股指期货转跌，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.01%，标普500指数期货跌0.03%。小非农驾到、鲍威尔将再度登场！北京时间周三21:15，美国2月ADP就业数据将出炉。据调","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月8日，美股指期货转跌，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.01%，标普500指数期货跌0.03%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a370e74eedfc06039cb97ca2fdfbdc\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>小非农驾到、鲍威尔将再度登场！</b></p><p>北京时间周三21:15，美国2月ADP就业数据将出炉。据调查显示，美国2月ADP就业人数预计增加20万，此前1月为增加10.6万。据了解，ADP数据素有“小非农”之称，对于市场具有较大影响力。分析师指出，若ADP就业数据超出预期，美元可能出现新一波涨势，从而推动其它非美货币和黄金下跌。FXStreet分析师Matías Salord指出，如果ADP显示私营部门就业人数增长超过20万，这将重申美联储“更长时间的高利率”的前景，为美元提供支撑。此外，美联储主席鲍威尔第一天的证词对黄金市场至关重要，但他周三在众议院金融服务委员会举行的听证会将受到密切关注，以寻找政策前景的新线索。</p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p>热门中概股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌超5%，微博跌近5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超1%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a>盘前涨超6%，该公司Q4业绩超市场预期，其中营收同比增长48%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>盘前涨超3%，巴菲特再出手，耗资约3.6亿美元进一步增持，持股达21.6％；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>盘前涨超6%，正在就债务重组进行谈判；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAXN.US\">Maxeon Solar Technologies</a>盘前涨超14%，公司四季度营收超市场预期；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前跌1.5%，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对Model Y方向盘脱落事件展开调查。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指多数上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.37%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>涨0.01%，法国CAC40跌0.01%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2f1e2260d786e8cfb6cbbc9d9d2363\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货小幅震荡，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.17%，报77.45美元/桶；布伦特原油涨0.05%，报83.33美元/桶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7675819fa6ccfcb3503a58a9abd2cb\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97f0607d3bff327b1f5eb65ebf6d164e\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货小幅震荡，截止发稿，涨0.02%，报1820.3美元/盎司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfe1bf702c3cd1a9740f38860e7b2e1\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前 | 三大股指期货转跌，两大风险事件今夜来袭</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前 | 三大股指期货转跌，两大风险事件今夜来袭\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-08 20:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月8日，美股指期货转跌，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.01%，标普500指数期货跌0.03%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a370e74eedfc06039cb97ca2fdfbdc\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>小非农驾到、鲍威尔将再度登场！</b></p><p>北京时间周三21:15，美国2月ADP就业数据将出炉。据调查显示，美国2月ADP就业人数预计增加20万，此前1月为增加10.6万。据了解，ADP数据素有“小非农”之称，对于市场具有较大影响力。分析师指出，若ADP就业数据超出预期，美元可能出现新一波涨势，从而推动其它非美货币和黄金下跌。FXStreet分析师Matías Salord指出，如果ADP显示私营部门就业人数增长超过20万，这将重申美联储“更长时间的高利率”的前景，为美元提供支撑。此外，美联储主席鲍威尔第一天的证词对黄金市场至关重要，但他周三在众议院金融服务委员会举行的听证会将受到密切关注，以寻找政策前景的新线索。</p><p><b>盘前行情</b></p><p>热门中概股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌超5%，微博跌近5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超1%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a>盘前涨超6%，该公司Q4业绩超市场预期，其中营收同比增长48%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>盘前涨超3%，巴菲特再出手，耗资约3.6亿美元进一步增持，持股达21.6％；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>盘前涨超6%，正在就债务重组进行谈判；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAXN.US\">Maxeon Solar Technologies</a>盘前涨超14%，公司四季度营收超市场预期；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前跌1.5%，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对Model Y方向盘脱落事件展开调查。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指多数上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.37%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>涨0.01%，法国CAC40跌0.01%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2f1e2260d786e8cfb6cbbc9d9d2363\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>原油期货小幅震荡，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.17%，报77.45美元/桶；布伦特原油涨0.05%，报83.33美元/桶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7675819fa6ccfcb3503a58a9abd2cb\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97f0607d3bff327b1f5eb65ebf6d164e\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>黄金期货小幅震荡，截止发稿，涨0.02%，报1820.3美元/盎司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfe1bf702c3cd1a9740f38860e7b2e1\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","GOTU":"高途","EDU":"新东方","LI":"理想汽车","VUKE.UK":"英国富时100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","OXY":"西方石油","EDU.AU":"EDU HOLDINGS LTD","JD":"京东","TAL":"好未来","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176864701","content_text":"3月8日，美股指期货转跌，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.01%，标普500指数期货跌0.03%。小非农驾到、鲍威尔将再度登场！北京时间周三21:15，美国2月ADP就业数据将出炉。据调查显示，美国2月ADP就业人数预计增加20万，此前1月为增加10.6万。据了解，ADP数据素有“小非农”之称，对于市场具有较大影响力。分析师指出，若ADP就业数据超出预期，美元可能出现新一波涨势，从而推动其它非美货币和黄金下跌。FXStreet分析师Matías Salord指出，如果ADP显示私营部门就业人数增长超过20万，这将重申美联储“更长时间的高利率”的前景，为美元提供支撑。此外，美联储主席鲍威尔第一天的证词对黄金市场至关重要，但他周三在众议院金融服务委员会举行的听证会将受到密切关注，以寻找政策前景的新线索。盘前行情热门中概股盘前普跌，新东方跌超5%，微博跌近5%，理想汽车、高途、好未来跌超2%，京东、哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴跌超1%；CrowdStrike盘前涨超6%，该公司Q4业绩超市场预期，其中营收同比增长48%；西方石油盘前涨超3%，巴菲特再出手，耗资约3.6亿美元进一步增持，持股达21.6％；WeWork盘前涨超6%，正在就债务重组进行谈判；Maxeon Solar Technologies盘前涨超14%，公司四季度营收超市场预期；特斯拉盘前跌1.5%，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对Model Y方向盘脱落事件展开调查。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指多数上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.37%，英国富时100涨0.01%，法国CAC40跌0.01%。原油原油期货小幅震荡，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.17%，报77.45美元/桶；布伦特原油涨0.05%，报83.33美元/桶。黄金黄金期货小幅震荡，截止发稿，涨0.02%，报1820.3美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949997052,"gmtCreate":1678286822777,"gmtModify":1678286826891,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949997052","repostId":"1167447308","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167447308","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678281312,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167447308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 21:15","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，超市场预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167447308","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，预期20万人，前值10.6万人。2月建筑业就业人数减少1.6万人，1月减少2.4万人；2月制造业就业人数增加4.3万人，1月增加2.3万人；2月贸易/运输","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月8日，美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，预期20万人，前值10.6万人。</p><p>2月建筑业就业人数减少1.6万人，1月减少2.4万人；2月制造业就业人数增加4.3万人，1月增加2.3万人；2月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加3000人，1月减少4.1万人；2月金融服务业就业人数增加6.2万人，1月增加3万人；2月专业/商业服务就业人数减少3.6万人，1月增加8000人。</p><p>ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：目前劳动力市场出现“两难境地”。我们看到招聘活跃，这对经济和工人都是好事，但工资增长速度仍然很快。工资增长的适度放缓本身不太可能在短期内迅速降低通胀。</p><p>ADP数据公布后，美股期货短线小幅走低；美元指数短线走高约10点，报105.71；现货黄金短线变动不大，现报1813.78美元/盎司。</p><p>数据公布后，美联储掉期交易显示，3月加息50个基点的几率提升至75%；而据CME“美联储观察”，美联储3月加息50个基点至5.00%-5.25%区间的概率高达77.9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71cd25a9c91978cea7cb661e7f125ff3\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>本周美联储理事沃勒曾表示，2月份强劲的经济指标只是昙花一现，物价压力将从下个月开始恢复下行趋势。与此相反，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率指引方面表现得极其鹰派。财经网站Fxstreet此前表示，ADP数据等就业数据将提供更清晰的利率指引。强劲的ADP就业数据将支持美联储在3月会议上加大加息步伐。</p><p>另外，财经网站Fxstreet分析师还表示，ADP接近预期将无关紧要，负增长才可以影响加息。分析师称：</p><blockquote>“如果ADP报告显示私营部门就业增长超过20万，这将重申‘利率在较长一段时间内维持在高平台’的前景，支撑美元，打压美债。但数据只有降至萎缩范围，才会对预期造成压力。就业负增长可能对股市、新兴市场货币有利。周三公布的接近预期的数据可能会被市场参与者忽略，他们可能仍在消化鲍威尔的讲话，并关注非农就业数据，等着看2月数据和1月数据的修正。”</blockquote><p>分析师Matías Salord同样认为，“小非农”ADP就业数据夹在鲍威尔国会证词和非农数据中间公布，影响力被这两者弱化，即使数据出乎意料，可能影响有限。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，超市场预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，超市场预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-08 21:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月8日，美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，预期20万人，前值10.6万人。</p><p>2月建筑业就业人数减少1.6万人，1月减少2.4万人；2月制造业就业人数增加4.3万人，1月增加2.3万人；2月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加3000人，1月减少4.1万人；2月金融服务业就业人数增加6.2万人，1月增加3万人；2月专业/商业服务就业人数减少3.6万人，1月增加8000人。</p><p>ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：目前劳动力市场出现“两难境地”。我们看到招聘活跃，这对经济和工人都是好事，但工资增长速度仍然很快。工资增长的适度放缓本身不太可能在短期内迅速降低通胀。</p><p>ADP数据公布后，美股期货短线小幅走低；美元指数短线走高约10点，报105.71；现货黄金短线变动不大，现报1813.78美元/盎司。</p><p>数据公布后，美联储掉期交易显示，3月加息50个基点的几率提升至75%；而据CME“美联储观察”，美联储3月加息50个基点至5.00%-5.25%区间的概率高达77.9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71cd25a9c91978cea7cb661e7f125ff3\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>本周美联储理事沃勒曾表示，2月份强劲的经济指标只是昙花一现，物价压力将从下个月开始恢复下行趋势。与此相反，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率指引方面表现得极其鹰派。财经网站Fxstreet此前表示，ADP数据等就业数据将提供更清晰的利率指引。强劲的ADP就业数据将支持美联储在3月会议上加大加息步伐。</p><p>另外，财经网站Fxstreet分析师还表示，ADP接近预期将无关紧要，负增长才可以影响加息。分析师称：</p><blockquote>“如果ADP报告显示私营部门就业增长超过20万，这将重申‘利率在较长一段时间内维持在高平台’的前景，支撑美元，打压美债。但数据只有降至萎缩范围，才会对预期造成压力。就业负增长可能对股市、新兴市场货币有利。周三公布的接近预期的数据可能会被市场参与者忽略，他们可能仍在消化鲍威尔的讲话，并关注非农就业数据，等着看2月数据和1月数据的修正。”</blockquote><p>分析师Matías Salord同样认为，“小非农”ADP就业数据夹在鲍威尔国会证词和非农数据中间公布，影响力被这两者弱化，即使数据出乎意料，可能影响有限。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167447308","content_text":"3月8日，美国2月ADP就业人数24.2万人，预期20万人，前值10.6万人。2月建筑业就业人数减少1.6万人，1月减少2.4万人；2月制造业就业人数增加4.3万人，1月增加2.3万人；2月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加3000人，1月减少4.1万人；2月金融服务业就业人数增加6.2万人，1月增加3万人；2月专业/商业服务就业人数减少3.6万人，1月增加8000人。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：目前劳动力市场出现“两难境地”。我们看到招聘活跃，这对经济和工人都是好事，但工资增长速度仍然很快。工资增长的适度放缓本身不太可能在短期内迅速降低通胀。ADP数据公布后，美股期货短线小幅走低；美元指数短线走高约10点，报105.71；现货黄金短线变动不大，现报1813.78美元/盎司。数据公布后，美联储掉期交易显示，3月加息50个基点的几率提升至75%；而据CME“美联储观察”，美联储3月加息50个基点至5.00%-5.25%区间的概率高达77.9%。本周美联储理事沃勒曾表示，2月份强劲的经济指标只是昙花一现，物价压力将从下个月开始恢复下行趋势。与此相反，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率指引方面表现得极其鹰派。财经网站Fxstreet此前表示，ADP数据等就业数据将提供更清晰的利率指引。强劲的ADP就业数据将支持美联储在3月会议上加大加息步伐。另外，财经网站Fxstreet分析师还表示，ADP接近预期将无关紧要，负增长才可以影响加息。分析师称：“如果ADP报告显示私营部门就业增长超过20万，这将重申‘利率在较长一段时间内维持在高平台’的前景，支撑美元，打压美债。但数据只有降至萎缩范围，才会对预期造成压力。就业负增长可能对股市、新兴市场货币有利。周三公布的接近预期的数据可能会被市场参与者忽略，他们可能仍在消化鲍威尔的讲话，并关注非农就业数据，等着看2月数据和1月数据的修正。”分析师Matías Salord同样认为，“小非农”ADP就业数据夹在鲍威尔国会证词和非农数据中间公布，影响力被这两者弱化，即使数据出乎意料，可能影响有限。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949994737,"gmtCreate":1678286806929,"gmtModify":1678286811958,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949994737","repostId":"2317283696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163969809,"gmtCreate":1623856979301,"gmtModify":1703821663901,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SOHO","listText":"SOHO","text":"SOHO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163969809","repostId":"1143726677","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143726677","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623852581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143726677?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 22:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"套现195亿！爱上编程的潘石屹，甩卖公司股权","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143726677","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"6月16日傍晚，SOHO中国公告称，黑石已发出全面收购要约，交易代价236.58亿港元（约合人民币195亿元）取得SOHO中国的控股权。交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权。\n6月16","content":"<div>\n<p>6月16日傍晚，SOHO中国公告称，黑石已发出全面收购要约，交易代价236.58亿港元（约合人民币195亿元）取得SOHO中国的控股权。交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权。\n6月16日白天，来自市场消息称，黑石接近达成收购SOHO中国的协议，这将是市值4254亿黑石在中国最大的一笔房地产投资。\n\n图片来源：视觉中国 资料图\n潘石屹出售SOHO中国股权早有传闻。2019年至今，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/44H-ADud6vsJDL8GvuwmhA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>套现195亿！爱上编程的潘石屹，甩卖公司股权</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n套现195亿！爱上编程的潘石屹，甩卖公司股权\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 22:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/44H-ADud6vsJDL8GvuwmhA><strong>每日经济新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月16日傍晚，SOHO中国公告称，黑石已发出全面收购要约，交易代价236.58亿港元（约合人民币195亿元）取得SOHO中国的控股权。交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权。\n6月16日白天，来自市场消息称，黑石接近达成收购SOHO中国的协议，这将是市值4254亿黑石在中国最大的一笔房地产投资。\n\n图片来源：视觉中国 资料图\n潘石屹出售SOHO中国股权早有传闻。2019年至今，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/44H-ADud6vsJDL8GvuwmhA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dea1b053707935efa556da6b24b1287","relate_stocks":{"00410":"SOHO中国"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/44H-ADud6vsJDL8GvuwmhA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143726677","content_text":"6月16日傍晚，SOHO中国公告称，黑石已发出全面收购要约，交易代价236.58亿港元（约合人民币195亿元）取得SOHO中国的控股权。交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权。\n6月16日白天，来自市场消息称，黑石接近达成收购SOHO中国的协议，这将是市值4254亿黑石在中国最大的一笔房地产投资。\n\n图片来源：视觉中国 资料图\n潘石屹出售SOHO中国股权早有传闻。2019年至今，SOHO中国三度传出要被收购的消息，如今终于落地。截至6月11日收盘，SOHO中国股价报3.8港元/股，总市值198亿港元，创下近一年来股价新高。在停牌之前，SOHO中国股价连续9个交易日上涨，涨幅高达59.66%。\n另据胡润百富榜2020年数据显示，潘石屹夫妇身家目前共计235亿。\n黑石向SOHO中国发出收购要约\n潘石屹夫妇套现236亿港元\nSOHO中国与黑石传了一年多的绯闻终于官宣了。\n6月16日晚，SOHO中国发布公告，黑石发出全面收购要约，投资SOHO中国，以取得SOHO中国的控股权。交易完成后，SOHO中国现有控股股东将保留9%的股权，将继续在香港证券交易所上市。\n\n根据SOHO中国公告，由潘石屹夫妇全资控股的SOHO中国控股股东Boyce Limited及Capevale Limited (BVI)向要约方黑石集团不可撤回地承诺，将在10个工作日内向黑石转让28.56亿股股份，占公司已发行股本约54.93%。此后，潘石屹夫妇将保留已发行股本约9.00%。\n公告称，假设要约以每股股份5港元的要约价转让，要约的最高现金代价约为236.58亿港元，约合人民币194.97亿元，即 30.47亿美元，与此前传闻相符。\n\n6月15日，SOHO中国突然发布停牌公告，表示“以待刊发有关内幕消息及根据《香港收购及合并守则》”。停牌前，SOHO中国涨幅超过15%，报收3.8港元，股价创下年内新高。今日，SOHO中国继续停牌，但市场传闻已经再现黑石身影，称其拟以30亿美元收购SOHO中国，该交易最早于本周宣布。\n\nSOHO中国公告截图\n三次“狼来了”\n自与黑石传出“绯闻”以来，SOHO中国股价已经三度暴涨。\n据《每日经济新闻》记者统计，2019年10月30日，SOHO中国盘中涨幅一度高至27.07%。当日有报道称，SOHO中国正考虑以80亿美元（约627亿港元）出售其在中国的办公大楼，接盘方正是黑石及相关财团。\n2020年3月10日早间，黑石集团被传提出以每股6港元的价格私有化SOHO中国，交易价值40亿美元，报价较上日收市价2.98元高逾一倍。SOHO中国亦公告停牌。临停前，SOHO中国股价报4.1港元，涨幅高达37.58%。\n2020年5月4日，彭博社援引知情人士称，由于新冠肺炎疫情影响导致公司前景充满不确定性，黑石集团关于SOHO中国私有化的洽谈陷入停滞状态。\n2020年8月13日，SOHO中国表示，公司与投资者就潜在交易所进行的讨论已终止，并未在交易的条款达成共识。\n但关于SOHO中国的私有化传言并没有就此终结。\n2020年11月13日，距离SOHO中国表态“终止”仅3个月，又有消息称高瓴资本与SOHO中国进行了初步谈判，拟将其私有化，对价可能超过20亿美元。受此消息影响，SOHO中国股价一度飙升超40％。不过高瓴资本其后火速回应“无意将SOHO中国私有化”，致其尾盘跳水，股价涨幅缩小至6.99%，当日报收2.45元。\n值得注意的是，2018年4月，SOHO中国前总裁阎岩加入黑石集团亚洲房地产部，出任董事总经理一职。\n阎岩1996加入SOHO中国，此前曾是恒基（中国）助理市场总监。入职SOHO中国的22年里，她历任首席运营官、财务总裁和总裁，负责项目拓展、成本预算控制及全面管理等，是高管里少有的老臣。\n2020年3月，坊间就有传言，黑石与SOHO中国的交易，很有可能是由阎岩促成的。\n根据公告，此次要约完成后，黑石计划保持公司的现有主营业务和管理团队。黑石和现有控股股东将结合优势资源和专业知识，支持和加强公司的业务发展。\n爱上编程的潘石屹不想做开发商了？\n潘石屹“卖卖卖”早已不是新鲜事。\n2019年6月28日，SOHO中国宣布以78亿元出售位于北京和上海的13个办公物业项目。对于销售原因，潘石屹当时在发布会现场表示，“持有量太大了”“没有任何资金原因”。\n当时，潘石屹还向外界传递了这样一个信息——有钱了，SOHO中国又要开始拿地了。“下一步可能考虑拿地，还是集中在大城市，一线城市，还有一线城市最繁华的地段。我做这个房地产就认一条，地段是最重要的。如果没有好的地，就把银行贷款还一还。还一点好，对公司来说压力小一点。”\n据《每日经济新闻》记者不完全统计，自2012年宣布转型以来，SOHO中国在过去几年中均有不同程度的大宗交易动作，金额较大的包括84.93亿元将外滩“地王”股权转让给复星，52.3亿元出售上海SOHO海伦广场和静安广场，50.08亿元出售凌空SOHO等，金额合计近300亿元。\n不过，卖资产属实，拿地恐怕是遥遥无期了，毕竟财务报表的数字实在不是太好看。\n据Wind，SOHO中国转型前曾在2012年拿下了近106亿元净利润，但此后便开始走下坡路。总营收则更是走出了一条下降曲线。2013~2020年，SOHO中国的总营收分别是149.24亿元、63.60亿元、14.04亿元、19.62亿元、22.82亿元、20.89亿元，18.47亿，21.92亿。\n2020年1月，潘石屹发微博：“要开始学Python了”，作为给自己的人生礼物。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116527258,"gmtCreate":1622813231774,"gmtModify":1704191669395,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Win win","listText":"Win win","text":"Win win","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116527258","repostId":"1110641032","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1110641032","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1622812967,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110641032?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beyond Meat names Amazon VP as CFO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110641032","media":"Reuters","summary":"Beyond Meat Inc on Friday named Amazon.com Inc Vice President Phil Hardin as its chief financial off","content":"<p>Beyond Meat Inc&nbsp;on Friday named Amazon.com Inc&nbsp;Vice President Phil Hardin as its chief financial officer.</p>\n<p>Hardin will join the plant based meat maker in July 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond Meat names Amazon VP as CFO</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond Meat names Amazon VP as CFO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-04 21:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beyond Meat Inc&nbsp;on Friday named Amazon.com Inc&nbsp;Vice President Phil Hardin as its chief financial officer.</p>\n<p>Hardin will join the plant based meat maker in July 2021.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110641032","content_text":"Beyond Meat Inc on Friday named Amazon.com Inc Vice President Phil Hardin as its chief financial officer.\nHardin will join the plant based meat maker in July 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":116527258,"gmtCreate":1622813231774,"gmtModify":1704191669395,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Win win","listText":"Win win","text":"Win 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08:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨 | 市场聚焦非农就业报告，美股三大指数齐收涨，AI概念股开启反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124955777","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股三大指数均录得上涨，纳指本周累跌1.1%；②美国最严排放新规即将出台；③AI股普遍反弹，BigBear.ai涨超14%。海外行情1、美股三大指数齐收涨 市场聚焦非农就业报告周四美股低开高走","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①美股三大指数均录得上涨，纳指本周累跌1.1%；②美国最严排放新规即将出台；③AI股普遍反弹，BigBear.ai涨超14%。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037e0fdd8fb6ae7cd33c558aba33e669\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>海外行情</strong></p><p><strong>1、美股三大指数齐收涨 市场聚焦非农就业报告</strong></p><p>周四美股低开高走，三大指数均小幅收涨。值得注意的是，周四是本周美股的最后一个交易日，因耶稣受难日，美股周五休市一日，但当天将会发布重磅的非农就业报告，投资者将再次了解美国经济的健康状况。</p><p>截至收盘，道指涨2.57点，涨幅为0.01%，报33485.29点；纳指涨91.09点，涨幅为0.76%，报12087.96点；标普500指数涨14.64点，涨幅为0.36%，报4105.02点。本周道指上涨0.6%，标普500指数下跌0.1%，纳指下跌1.1%。</p><p>大型科技股多数上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>涨3.77%，创2022年9月份以来收盘新高；Meta、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨逾2%。AI概念股普遍反弹，SoundHound AI涨超15%，BigBear.ai涨逾14%，C3.ai涨超8%。</p><p><strong>2、周四热门中概股多数上涨 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨超4%</strong></p><p>热门中概股大部分收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.47%，本周累跌3.20%。</p><p>阿里巴巴涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、小幅上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>小幅下跌。</p><p><strong>3、欧股集体收高 德国DAX30指数涨0.5%</strong></p><p>德国DAX30指数涨0.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1%，法国CAC40指数涨0.12%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.27%。</p><p><strong>4、纽约黄金期货周四收跌0.5% 连续第六周上涨</strong></p><p>周四，纽约商品交易所6月交割的黄金期货价格下跌9.20美元，跌幅近0.5%，收于每盎司2026.40美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周黄金期货合约上涨了2%，录得连续第六周上涨，因为对潜在经济衰退的担忧使金价获得支撑。</p><p><strong>5、美国WTI原油期货周四收高0.1% 本周上涨6.7%</strong></p><p>周四，纽约商品交易所5月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨9美分，涨幅为0.1%，收于每桶80.70美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货累计上涨近6.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>宏观新闻</strong></p><p><strong>1、 美国上周首次申领失业救济人数超出预期</strong></p><p>美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至4月1日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.8万人，至22.8万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为20万人。之前一周的数据上修4.8万人，至24.6万人。</p><p>美国劳工部不得不在疫情期间改变调整季节性因素的方式，因扭曲程度太大。今天的报告维持了疫情第一年的方法，但对于2020年3月之前和2021年6月之后的数据则沿用了传统方法。这意味着今年的申请失业救济人数基本超过20万人，而此前报道的数字远低于该水平。</p><p><strong>2、美国最严排放新规即将出台</strong></p><p>据知情人士透露，拜登政府将于下周三提出美国有史以来最严厉的汽车污染遏制措施，有助于刺激电动汽车销售，但不会强制推广轻型乘用电动汽车或禁止销售传统的汽油动力车型。新规将涉及汽车和轻型卡车的尾气排放标准，更严格管理2027至2032年生产车型的车辆二氧化碳、能形成烟雾的氮氧化物，以及其他污染物的尾气排放。</p><p>环保组织和一些汽车制造商认为，上述拟议新规除了可以推动车辆减排、促使车企显著扩大电动汽车销量之外，还会令美国到2030年至少有50%的新车为电动汽车或插电式混合动力车型，这与拜登在2021年上任伊始提出的愿景相一致。</p><p><strong>3、世贸组织上调今年全球贸易增速预期</strong></p><p>当地时间4月5日，世界贸易组织发布的最新一期《全球贸易数据与展望》报告预测，2023年全球货物贸易量将增长1.7%，高于去年10月预测的1%。</p><p>报告同时指出，受地缘政治局势紧张、通胀高企、货币政策紧缩、债务水平上升等多重风险影响，贸易增长前景仍面临较高不确定性。世贸组织呼吁，各国政府避免贸易碎片化，保持贸易自由流动，加强多边贸易合作，共同促进全球经济恢复。</p><p><strong>4、美联储鹰派官员淡化信贷紧缩风险 称目前正是加息“好时机”</strong></p><p>圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长James Bullard表示，美联储为缓解金融压力而采取的措施正在奏效，接下来应该继续加息以遏制高通胀。</p><p>他认为，近期银行业动荡引发的信贷条件收紧不会使美国经济陷入衰退，目前贷款需求仍然强劲。</p><p><strong>5、全球央行2月继续抢黄金 连续11个月净买入</strong></p><p>根据世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）汇编的最新数据，今年2月，全球央行的黄金储备增加了52吨，为央行连续第11个月净买入黄金。</p><p>从前两个月来看，全球央行黄金净购买量为125吨，为2010年以来最强劲的年度开局。</p><p><strong>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>：一季度美股财报或成为疫情以来最差</strong></p><p>美股一季度业绩即将出炉，高盛认为，美国上市公司的利润将出现新冠疫情以来的最大幅度下降，可能仅有三个行业的利润率上升。</p><p>高盛Lily Calcagnini和David Kostin等策略师预期，一季度，标准普尔500指数成份股公司每股收益将较上年同期下降7%，创下2020年第三季度以来的最大跌幅，并将令美股处于利润周期的低点。</p><p><strong>7、ChatGPT补救方案将至 意大利当局：无意阻碍AI发展</strong></p><p>意大利数据监管机构表示，聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>ChatGPT的开发公司OpenAI计划在当地时间周四向意大利当局提交补救措施，以解决监管机构的担忧。</p><p>在当地时间周三晚些时候的视频会议上，OpenAI承诺将在处理用户和验证用户年龄的方式上更加透明。OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman是与会者之一。</p><p><strong>8、瑞典确认“北溪”遭到蓄意破坏 但犯案人员难以确定</strong></p><p>瑞典检方周四发布公报称，再次确认“北溪”天然气管道遭到蓄意破坏，但表示目前难以确定实施破坏的犯案人员。</p><p>瑞典检方在公报中称，“对在现场调查期间查获的物品进行分析显示，几件物品上有爆炸物痕迹，已确认这是一起蓄意破坏案”。但公报同时表示，目前还在对这一复杂案件进行调查，“爆炸发生在水下80米的海底深处，背后肇事者究竟是谁仍难以确定”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>公司新闻</strong></p><p><strong>1、微软已将“文本生成图片”功能整合进浏览器</strong></p><p>当地时间周三，科技巨头微软高管表示，公司已将“必应映像创建器”（Bing Image Creator）试用版的功能整合到微软Edge浏览器的侧边栏上。</p><p>公司广告和网络服务部门的首席执行官Mikhail Parakhin在社交媒体上表示，在新功能的帮助下，“用户可以将生成的图片直接插入到任何正在编辑的内容中。”在Edge浏览器的侧边栏上，有一个类似于“绘图”的图标。在输入“Vinyage”（老式的）和“Computer”（电脑）后，显示了四张非常古老的电脑图片，用户可以将图片插入到邮件内容中。</p><p><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>正与钻石巨头戴比尔斯合作，开发用于量子计算的人造钻石</strong></p><p>4月6日，有媒体报道称，亚马逊正在与全球钻石巨头戴比尔斯集团的一个部门合作研发种植人造钻石，押注定制宝石可以帮助革新计算机网络。</p><p>戴比尔斯的元素六部门将与亚马逊网络服务中心的量子网络合作开展该项目，该部门正在寻找下一代安全地远距离传输数据的方式。量子网络使用亚原子物质以超越当今光纤系统的方式传输数据。钻石将成为一个组件的一部分，该组件可以让数据在不中断的情况下传输得更远。</p><p><strong>3、Meta入局来势汹涌 “生成式AI”引发技术争鸣</strong></p><p>4月5日，Meta首次对外宣称，将在2023年年底推出AIGC的商业化落地产品，预计将与OpenAI的大语言模型形成竞争。同日，该公司又发布了“AI抠图”模型Segment Anything，用户惊呼其将加码“元宇宙”内容的生成。Meta加入AIGC浪潮，来势汹涌。它和大语言模型的“针锋相对”、在“元宇宙”上的持续投入，都令这个AI玩家独树一帜。</p><p><strong>4、谷歌正式应战！聊天机器人即将加入搜索引擎</strong></p><p>在搜索引擎市场占有率每获得一个百分点，就会对应20亿美元的收入进账，这是微软给出的测算数据。将ChatGPT整合进Bing之后，Bing用户数量迅速飙升，微软CEO甚至喊话将在搜索领域挑战谷歌。</p><p>而谷歌这位搜索界“老大哥”终于准备直接应战。据媒体报道，谷歌CEO Sundar Pichai透露，谷歌计划在自家旗舰搜索引擎中添加AI对话功能，以应对ChatGPT等聊天机器人带来的竞争及商业压力。</p><p><strong>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>加速跨界打造电动车充电网，要在全美门店增设数千充电站</strong></p><p>4月6日周四，沃尔玛宣布，计划在美国全国的沃尔玛门店和山姆会员店设置新的电动汽车（EV）快速充电站，到2030年，让沃尔玛的EV快速充电网覆盖全美数千家门店。</p><p>这将是沃尔玛EV充电网的一次大幅扩张。因为沃尔玛在周四的声明中指出，目前已在280多家门店设有将近1300个EV快充站。以下为声明展示的门店设充电站效果图。</p><p><strong>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生</a>爽身粉致癌风波未停</strong></p><p>当地时间4月4日，美国强生公司表示，计划在未来25年内支付89亿美元（约612亿元人民币）赔款，以解决针对其婴儿爽身粉及其他含有滑石粉产品涉嫌致癌的相关索赔。</p><p>但强生公司仍然否认有关含滑石粉产品致癌的指控。同时，虽然强生已经停产这款产品，但多年来的索赔诉讼引发了公众的不信任，以及对更多含该成分产品安全性的担忧。</p><p><strong>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>将提高737系列飞机产量以增加现金流</strong></p><p>据知情人士透露，波音公司计划在年中前将其737系列飞机的产量提高到每月38架，比分析师预测的要早几个月。</p><p>这位知情人士称，这家美国飞机制造商一直在向其客户介绍未来几个月增产737系列飞机的计划，同时还雇佣和培训员工来提高生产速度。知情人士出于保密要求匿名。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨 | 市场聚焦非农就业报告，美股三大指数齐收涨，AI概念股开启反弹</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨 | 市场聚焦非农就业报告，美股三大指数齐收涨，AI概念股开启反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-07 08:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：①美股三大指数均录得上涨，纳指本周累跌1.1%；②美国最严排放新规即将出台；③AI股普遍反弹，BigBear.ai涨超14%。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037e0fdd8fb6ae7cd33c558aba33e669\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>海外行情</strong></p><p><strong>1、美股三大指数齐收涨 市场聚焦非农就业报告</strong></p><p>周四美股低开高走，三大指数均小幅收涨。值得注意的是，周四是本周美股的最后一个交易日，因耶稣受难日，美股周五休市一日，但当天将会发布重磅的非农就业报告，投资者将再次了解美国经济的健康状况。</p><p>截至收盘，道指涨2.57点，涨幅为0.01%，报33485.29点；纳指涨91.09点，涨幅为0.76%，报12087.96点；标普500指数涨14.64点，涨幅为0.36%，报4105.02点。本周道指上涨0.6%，标普500指数下跌0.1%，纳指下跌1.1%。</p><p>大型科技股多数上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>涨3.77%，创2022年9月份以来收盘新高；Meta、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨逾2%。AI概念股普遍反弹，SoundHound AI涨超15%，BigBear.ai涨逾14%，C3.ai涨超8%。</p><p><strong>2、周四热门中概股多数上涨 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨超4%</strong></p><p>热门中概股大部分收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.47%，本周累跌3.20%。</p><p>阿里巴巴涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、小幅上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>小幅下跌。</p><p><strong>3、欧股集体收高 德国DAX30指数涨0.5%</strong></p><p>德国DAX30指数涨0.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1%，法国CAC40指数涨0.12%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.27%。</p><p><strong>4、纽约黄金期货周四收跌0.5% 连续第六周上涨</strong></p><p>周四，纽约商品交易所6月交割的黄金期货价格下跌9.20美元，跌幅近0.5%，收于每盎司2026.40美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周黄金期货合约上涨了2%，录得连续第六周上涨，因为对潜在经济衰退的担忧使金价获得支撑。</p><p><strong>5、美国WTI原油期货周四收高0.1% 本周上涨6.7%</strong></p><p>周四，纽约商品交易所5月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨9美分，涨幅为0.1%，收于每桶80.70美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货累计上涨近6.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>宏观新闻</strong></p><p><strong>1、 美国上周首次申领失业救济人数超出预期</strong></p><p>美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至4月1日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.8万人，至22.8万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为20万人。之前一周的数据上修4.8万人，至24.6万人。</p><p>美国劳工部不得不在疫情期间改变调整季节性因素的方式，因扭曲程度太大。今天的报告维持了疫情第一年的方法，但对于2020年3月之前和2021年6月之后的数据则沿用了传统方法。这意味着今年的申请失业救济人数基本超过20万人，而此前报道的数字远低于该水平。</p><p><strong>2、美国最严排放新规即将出台</strong></p><p>据知情人士透露，拜登政府将于下周三提出美国有史以来最严厉的汽车污染遏制措施，有助于刺激电动汽车销售，但不会强制推广轻型乘用电动汽车或禁止销售传统的汽油动力车型。新规将涉及汽车和轻型卡车的尾气排放标准，更严格管理2027至2032年生产车型的车辆二氧化碳、能形成烟雾的氮氧化物，以及其他污染物的尾气排放。</p><p>环保组织和一些汽车制造商认为，上述拟议新规除了可以推动车辆减排、促使车企显著扩大电动汽车销量之外，还会令美国到2030年至少有50%的新车为电动汽车或插电式混合动力车型，这与拜登在2021年上任伊始提出的愿景相一致。</p><p><strong>3、世贸组织上调今年全球贸易增速预期</strong></p><p>当地时间4月5日，世界贸易组织发布的最新一期《全球贸易数据与展望》报告预测，2023年全球货物贸易量将增长1.7%，高于去年10月预测的1%。</p><p>报告同时指出，受地缘政治局势紧张、通胀高企、货币政策紧缩、债务水平上升等多重风险影响，贸易增长前景仍面临较高不确定性。世贸组织呼吁，各国政府避免贸易碎片化，保持贸易自由流动，加强多边贸易合作，共同促进全球经济恢复。</p><p><strong>4、美联储鹰派官员淡化信贷紧缩风险 称目前正是加息“好时机”</strong></p><p>圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长James Bullard表示，美联储为缓解金融压力而采取的措施正在奏效，接下来应该继续加息以遏制高通胀。</p><p>他认为，近期银行业动荡引发的信贷条件收紧不会使美国经济陷入衰退，目前贷款需求仍然强劲。</p><p><strong>5、全球央行2月继续抢黄金 连续11个月净买入</strong></p><p>根据世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）汇编的最新数据，今年2月，全球央行的黄金储备增加了52吨，为央行连续第11个月净买入黄金。</p><p>从前两个月来看，全球央行黄金净购买量为125吨，为2010年以来最强劲的年度开局。</p><p><strong>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>：一季度美股财报或成为疫情以来最差</strong></p><p>美股一季度业绩即将出炉，高盛认为，美国上市公司的利润将出现新冠疫情以来的最大幅度下降，可能仅有三个行业的利润率上升。</p><p>高盛Lily Calcagnini和David Kostin等策略师预期，一季度，标准普尔500指数成份股公司每股收益将较上年同期下降7%，创下2020年第三季度以来的最大跌幅，并将令美股处于利润周期的低点。</p><p><strong>7、ChatGPT补救方案将至 意大利当局：无意阻碍AI发展</strong></p><p>意大利数据监管机构表示，聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>ChatGPT的开发公司OpenAI计划在当地时间周四向意大利当局提交补救措施，以解决监管机构的担忧。</p><p>在当地时间周三晚些时候的视频会议上，OpenAI承诺将在处理用户和验证用户年龄的方式上更加透明。OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman是与会者之一。</p><p><strong>8、瑞典确认“北溪”遭到蓄意破坏 但犯案人员难以确定</strong></p><p>瑞典检方周四发布公报称，再次确认“北溪”天然气管道遭到蓄意破坏，但表示目前难以确定实施破坏的犯案人员。</p><p>瑞典检方在公报中称，“对在现场调查期间查获的物品进行分析显示，几件物品上有爆炸物痕迹，已确认这是一起蓄意破坏案”。但公报同时表示，目前还在对这一复杂案件进行调查，“爆炸发生在水下80米的海底深处，背后肇事者究竟是谁仍难以确定”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>公司新闻</strong></p><p><strong>1、微软已将“文本生成图片”功能整合进浏览器</strong></p><p>当地时间周三，科技巨头微软高管表示，公司已将“必应映像创建器”（Bing Image Creator）试用版的功能整合到微软Edge浏览器的侧边栏上。</p><p>公司广告和网络服务部门的首席执行官Mikhail Parakhin在社交媒体上表示，在新功能的帮助下，“用户可以将生成的图片直接插入到任何正在编辑的内容中。”在Edge浏览器的侧边栏上，有一个类似于“绘图”的图标。在输入“Vinyage”（老式的）和“Computer”（电脑）后，显示了四张非常古老的电脑图片，用户可以将图片插入到邮件内容中。</p><p><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>正与钻石巨头戴比尔斯合作，开发用于量子计算的人造钻石</strong></p><p>4月6日，有媒体报道称，亚马逊正在与全球钻石巨头戴比尔斯集团的一个部门合作研发种植人造钻石，押注定制宝石可以帮助革新计算机网络。</p><p>戴比尔斯的元素六部门将与亚马逊网络服务中心的量子网络合作开展该项目，该部门正在寻找下一代安全地远距离传输数据的方式。量子网络使用亚原子物质以超越当今光纤系统的方式传输数据。钻石将成为一个组件的一部分，该组件可以让数据在不中断的情况下传输得更远。</p><p><strong>3、Meta入局来势汹涌 “生成式AI”引发技术争鸣</strong></p><p>4月5日，Meta首次对外宣称，将在2023年年底推出AIGC的商业化落地产品，预计将与OpenAI的大语言模型形成竞争。同日，该公司又发布了“AI抠图”模型Segment Anything，用户惊呼其将加码“元宇宙”内容的生成。Meta加入AIGC浪潮，来势汹涌。它和大语言模型的“针锋相对”、在“元宇宙”上的持续投入，都令这个AI玩家独树一帜。</p><p><strong>4、谷歌正式应战！聊天机器人即将加入搜索引擎</strong></p><p>在搜索引擎市场占有率每获得一个百分点，就会对应20亿美元的收入进账，这是微软给出的测算数据。将ChatGPT整合进Bing之后，Bing用户数量迅速飙升，微软CEO甚至喊话将在搜索领域挑战谷歌。</p><p>而谷歌这位搜索界“老大哥”终于准备直接应战。据媒体报道，谷歌CEO Sundar Pichai透露，谷歌计划在自家旗舰搜索引擎中添加AI对话功能，以应对ChatGPT等聊天机器人带来的竞争及商业压力。</p><p><strong>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>加速跨界打造电动车充电网，要在全美门店增设数千充电站</strong></p><p>4月6日周四，沃尔玛宣布，计划在美国全国的沃尔玛门店和山姆会员店设置新的电动汽车（EV）快速充电站，到2030年，让沃尔玛的EV快速充电网覆盖全美数千家门店。</p><p>这将是沃尔玛EV充电网的一次大幅扩张。因为沃尔玛在周四的声明中指出，目前已在280多家门店设有将近1300个EV快充站。以下为声明展示的门店设充电站效果图。</p><p><strong>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生</a>爽身粉致癌风波未停</strong></p><p>当地时间4月4日，美国强生公司表示，计划在未来25年内支付89亿美元（约612亿元人民币）赔款，以解决针对其婴儿爽身粉及其他含有滑石粉产品涉嫌致癌的相关索赔。</p><p>但强生公司仍然否认有关含滑石粉产品致癌的指控。同时，虽然强生已经停产这款产品，但多年来的索赔诉讼引发了公众的不信任，以及对更多含该成分产品安全性的担忧。</p><p><strong>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>将提高737系列飞机产量以增加现金流</strong></p><p>据知情人士透露，波音公司计划在年中前将其737系列飞机的产量提高到每月38架，比分析师预测的要早几个月。</p><p>这位知情人士称，这家美国飞机制造商一直在向其客户介绍未来几个月增产737系列飞机的计划，同时还雇佣和培训员工来提高生产速度。知情人士出于保密要求匿名。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4023":"应用软件","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124955777","content_text":"摘要：①美股三大指数均录得上涨，纳指本周累跌1.1%；②美国最严排放新规即将出台；③AI股普遍反弹，BigBear.ai涨超14%。海外行情1、美股三大指数齐收涨 市场聚焦非农就业报告周四美股低开高走，三大指数均小幅收涨。值得注意的是，周四是本周美股的最后一个交易日，因耶稣受难日，美股周五休市一日，但当天将会发布重磅的非农就业报告，投资者将再次了解美国经济的健康状况。截至收盘，道指涨2.57点，涨幅为0.01%，报33485.29点；纳指涨91.09点，涨幅为0.76%，报12087.96点；标普500指数涨14.64点，涨幅为0.36%，报4105.02点。本周道指上涨0.6%，标普500指数下跌0.1%，纳指下跌1.1%。大型科技股多数上涨，谷歌涨3.77%，创2022年9月份以来收盘新高；Meta、微软涨逾2%。AI概念股普遍反弹，SoundHound AI涨超15%，BigBear.ai涨逾14%，C3.ai涨超8%。2、周四热门中概股多数上涨 阿里巴巴涨超4%热门中概股大部分收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.47%，本周累跌3.20%。阿里巴巴涨超4%，唯品会涨超3%，理想汽车、小鹏汽车涨超2%，哔哩哔哩、网易、爱奇艺涨超1%，京东、微博、蔚来、百度、小幅上涨。拼多多小幅下跌。3、欧股集体收高 德国DAX30指数涨0.5%德国DAX30指数涨0.5%，英国富时100指数涨1%，法国CAC40指数涨0.12%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.27%。4、纽约黄金期货周四收跌0.5% 连续第六周上涨周四，纽约商品交易所6月交割的黄金期货价格下跌9.20美元，跌幅近0.5%，收于每盎司2026.40美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周黄金期货合约上涨了2%，录得连续第六周上涨，因为对潜在经济衰退的担忧使金价获得支撑。5、美国WTI原油期货周四收高0.1% 本周上涨6.7%周四，纽约商品交易所5月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨9美分，涨幅为0.1%，收于每桶80.70美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货累计上涨近6.7%。宏观新闻1、 美国上周首次申领失业救济人数超出预期美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至4月1日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.8万人，至22.8万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为20万人。之前一周的数据上修4.8万人，至24.6万人。美国劳工部不得不在疫情期间改变调整季节性因素的方式，因扭曲程度太大。今天的报告维持了疫情第一年的方法，但对于2020年3月之前和2021年6月之后的数据则沿用了传统方法。这意味着今年的申请失业救济人数基本超过20万人，而此前报道的数字远低于该水平。2、美国最严排放新规即将出台据知情人士透露，拜登政府将于下周三提出美国有史以来最严厉的汽车污染遏制措施，有助于刺激电动汽车销售，但不会强制推广轻型乘用电动汽车或禁止销售传统的汽油动力车型。新规将涉及汽车和轻型卡车的尾气排放标准，更严格管理2027至2032年生产车型的车辆二氧化碳、能形成烟雾的氮氧化物，以及其他污染物的尾气排放。环保组织和一些汽车制造商认为，上述拟议新规除了可以推动车辆减排、促使车企显著扩大电动汽车销量之外，还会令美国到2030年至少有50%的新车为电动汽车或插电式混合动力车型，这与拜登在2021年上任伊始提出的愿景相一致。3、世贸组织上调今年全球贸易增速预期当地时间4月5日，世界贸易组织发布的最新一期《全球贸易数据与展望》报告预测，2023年全球货物贸易量将增长1.7%，高于去年10月预测的1%。报告同时指出，受地缘政治局势紧张、通胀高企、货币政策紧缩、债务水平上升等多重风险影响，贸易增长前景仍面临较高不确定性。世贸组织呼吁，各国政府避免贸易碎片化，保持贸易自由流动，加强多边贸易合作，共同促进全球经济恢复。4、美联储鹰派官员淡化信贷紧缩风险 称目前正是加息“好时机”圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长James Bullard表示，美联储为缓解金融压力而采取的措施正在奏效，接下来应该继续加息以遏制高通胀。他认为，近期银行业动荡引发的信贷条件收紧不会使美国经济陷入衰退，目前贷款需求仍然强劲。5、全球央行2月继续抢黄金 连续11个月净买入根据世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）汇编的最新数据，今年2月，全球央行的黄金储备增加了52吨，为央行连续第11个月净买入黄金。从前两个月来看，全球央行黄金净购买量为125吨，为2010年以来最强劲的年度开局。6、高盛：一季度美股财报或成为疫情以来最差美股一季度业绩即将出炉，高盛认为，美国上市公司的利润将出现新冠疫情以来的最大幅度下降，可能仅有三个行业的利润率上升。高盛Lily Calcagnini和David Kostin等策略师预期，一季度，标准普尔500指数成份股公司每股收益将较上年同期下降7%，创下2020年第三季度以来的最大跌幅，并将令美股处于利润周期的低点。7、ChatGPT补救方案将至 意大利当局：无意阻碍AI发展意大利数据监管机构表示，聊天机器人ChatGPT的开发公司OpenAI计划在当地时间周四向意大利当局提交补救措施，以解决监管机构的担忧。在当地时间周三晚些时候的视频会议上，OpenAI承诺将在处理用户和验证用户年龄的方式上更加透明。OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman是与会者之一。8、瑞典确认“北溪”遭到蓄意破坏 但犯案人员难以确定瑞典检方周四发布公报称，再次确认“北溪”天然气管道遭到蓄意破坏，但表示目前难以确定实施破坏的犯案人员。瑞典检方在公报中称，“对在现场调查期间查获的物品进行分析显示，几件物品上有爆炸物痕迹，已确认这是一起蓄意破坏案”。但公报同时表示，目前还在对这一复杂案件进行调查，“爆炸发生在水下80米的海底深处，背后肇事者究竟是谁仍难以确定”。公司新闻1、微软已将“文本生成图片”功能整合进浏览器当地时间周三，科技巨头微软高管表示，公司已将“必应映像创建器”（Bing Image Creator）试用版的功能整合到微软Edge浏览器的侧边栏上。公司广告和网络服务部门的首席执行官Mikhail Parakhin在社交媒体上表示，在新功能的帮助下，“用户可以将生成的图片直接插入到任何正在编辑的内容中。”在Edge浏览器的侧边栏上，有一个类似于“绘图”的图标。在输入“Vinyage”（老式的）和“Computer”（电脑）后，显示了四张非常古老的电脑图片，用户可以将图片插入到邮件内容中。2、亚马逊正与钻石巨头戴比尔斯合作，开发用于量子计算的人造钻石4月6日，有媒体报道称，亚马逊正在与全球钻石巨头戴比尔斯集团的一个部门合作研发种植人造钻石，押注定制宝石可以帮助革新计算机网络。戴比尔斯的元素六部门将与亚马逊网络服务中心的量子网络合作开展该项目，该部门正在寻找下一代安全地远距离传输数据的方式。量子网络使用亚原子物质以超越当今光纤系统的方式传输数据。钻石将成为一个组件的一部分，该组件可以让数据在不中断的情况下传输得更远。3、Meta入局来势汹涌 “生成式AI”引发技术争鸣4月5日，Meta首次对外宣称，将在2023年年底推出AIGC的商业化落地产品，预计将与OpenAI的大语言模型形成竞争。同日，该公司又发布了“AI抠图”模型Segment Anything，用户惊呼其将加码“元宇宙”内容的生成。Meta加入AIGC浪潮，来势汹涌。它和大语言模型的“针锋相对”、在“元宇宙”上的持续投入，都令这个AI玩家独树一帜。4、谷歌正式应战！聊天机器人即将加入搜索引擎在搜索引擎市场占有率每获得一个百分点，就会对应20亿美元的收入进账，这是微软给出的测算数据。将ChatGPT整合进Bing之后，Bing用户数量迅速飙升，微软CEO甚至喊话将在搜索领域挑战谷歌。而谷歌这位搜索界“老大哥”终于准备直接应战。据媒体报道，谷歌CEO Sundar Pichai透露，谷歌计划在自家旗舰搜索引擎中添加AI对话功能，以应对ChatGPT等聊天机器人带来的竞争及商业压力。5、沃尔玛加速跨界打造电动车充电网，要在全美门店增设数千充电站4月6日周四，沃尔玛宣布，计划在美国全国的沃尔玛门店和山姆会员店设置新的电动汽车（EV）快速充电站，到2030年，让沃尔玛的EV快速充电网覆盖全美数千家门店。这将是沃尔玛EV充电网的一次大幅扩张。因为沃尔玛在周四的声明中指出，目前已在280多家门店设有将近1300个EV快充站。以下为声明展示的门店设充电站效果图。6、强生爽身粉致癌风波未停当地时间4月4日，美国强生公司表示，计划在未来25年内支付89亿美元（约612亿元人民币）赔款，以解决针对其婴儿爽身粉及其他含有滑石粉产品涉嫌致癌的相关索赔。但强生公司仍然否认有关含滑石粉产品致癌的指控。同时，虽然强生已经停产这款产品，但多年来的索赔诉讼引发了公众的不信任，以及对更多含该成分产品安全性的担忧。7、波音将提高737系列飞机产量以增加现金流据知情人士透露，波音公司计划在年中前将其737系列飞机的产量提高到每月38架，比分析师预测的要早几个月。这位知情人士称，这家美国飞机制造商一直在向其客户介绍未来几个月增产737系列飞机的计划，同时还雇佣和培训员工来提高生产速度。知情人士出于保密要求匿名。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941626695,"gmtCreate":1680215240218,"gmtModify":1680215243916,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941626695","repostId":"2323678027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2323678027","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680170043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323678027?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 17:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323678027","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！</blockquote><p>RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：</p><blockquote>“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”</blockquote><p>罗伯维兹称，<strong>押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。</strong></p><p>美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。</p><p>就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。<strong>如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。</strong></p><p><strong>降息总是“哀鸿遍野”</strong></p><p>自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。<strong>标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03a5178e50b7a4dce343ded734f8f37\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"417\"/></p><p>最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。</p><p>那么，<strong>为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？</strong>因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。</p><p><strong>在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境</strong>。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f0eeae55291adb1bc75e929c0c8da3\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"534\"/></p><p><strong>当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。</strong>正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。</p><p><strong>美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌</strong></p><p>鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，<strong>与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？</strong></p><p>下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，<strong>加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%</strong>，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46b1c2dfa074f9f1ebff7f403c4a0ffa\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，<strong>还有两个需要考虑的因素</strong>。</p><p>首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。<strong>这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f50898eeee026c0a6ffd62ae6458b47\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，<strong>最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的</strong>，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。</p><p><em>注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2d76a2c5ad5be94c5856d8b792390a\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"536\"/></p><p>目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但<strong>估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平</strong>，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：</p><blockquote>“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”</blockquote><p><strong>市场对降息的预期并不现实</strong></p><p>美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。<strong>如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题</strong>。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，<strong>无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。</strong></p><p>关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。</p><p>下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而<strong>过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361e1e203de45df7c9ee78346425ff90\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-30 17:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323678027","content_text":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。降息总是“哀鸿遍野”自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。那么，为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，还有两个需要考虑的因素。首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”市场对降息的预期并不现实美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941639195,"gmtCreate":1680183290218,"gmtModify":1680183294088,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941639195","repostId":"1146780615","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146780615","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680183015,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146780615?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘 | 美股三大指数集体高开，法拉第未来涨逾12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146780615","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月30日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨170.76点，涨幅0.52%，报32888.36点；标普500指数开盘上涨24.71点，涨幅0.61%，报4052.52点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月30日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨170.76点，涨幅0.52%，报32888.36点；标普500指数开盘上涨24.71点，涨幅0.61%，报4052.52点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨84.21点，涨幅0.71%，报12010.45点。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>涨逾12%，公司官宣FF 91 Futurist开始生产。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>上涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>拟分拆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>产发、京东工业于香港联交所主板独立上市。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B家居</a>跌8%，此前称计划出售价值3亿美元的股票。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>涨3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>涨2%，瑞士政府已向议会提交为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>收购瑞信提供1090亿瑞郎担保的计划。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">飞利浦</a>涨5%，预计今年将就其全球召回的呼吸系统设备达成和解。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘 | 美股三大指数集体高开，法拉第未来涨逾12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘 | 美股三大指数集体高开，法拉第未来涨逾12%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-30 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月30日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨170.76点，涨幅0.52%，报32888.36点；标普500指数开盘上涨24.71点，涨幅0.61%，报4052.52点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨84.21点，涨幅0.71%，报12010.45点。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>涨逾12%，公司官宣FF 91 Futurist开始生产。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>上涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>拟分拆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>产发、京东工业于香港联交所主板独立上市。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B家居</a>跌8%，此前称计划出售价值3亿美元的股票。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>涨3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>涨2%，瑞士政府已向议会提交为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>收购瑞信提供1090亿瑞郎担保的计划。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">飞利浦</a>涨5%，预计今年将就其全球召回的呼吸系统设备达成和解。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","BK1591":"就地过年概念","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","JD":"京东","LU0320764755.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD","LU0588545490.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD","LU0791590937.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD)","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1502":"双十一","USB":"美国合众银行","BK4178":"家庭装饰零售","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income ASDM SGD","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU0588545730.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"ADM\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","FFIE":"Faraday Future","BK1588":"回港中概股","09618":"京东集团-SW","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","LU1044874839.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) ASIAN CONTRARIAN EQUITY \"AGH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1282649810.SGD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","UBS":"瑞银","IE00BGV7N243.SGD":"FSSA Global Emerging Markets Focus I Acc SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","LU1044876610.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) ASIAN CONTRARIAN EQUITY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","SG9999001226.SGD":"UNITED SUSTAINABLE ASIA TOP 50 \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","PHG":"飞利浦","LU0456842615.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Equity A (acc) SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BBBY":"3B家居"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146780615","content_text":"3月30日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数开盘上涨170.76点，涨幅0.52%，报32888.36点；标普500指数开盘上涨24.71点，涨幅0.61%，报4052.52点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨84.21点，涨幅0.71%，报12010.45点。法拉第未来涨逾12%，公司官宣FF 91 Futurist开始生产。京东上涨近6%，京东拟分拆京东产发、京东工业于香港联交所主板独立上市。3B家居跌8%，此前称计划出售价值3亿美元的股票。瑞银涨3%，瑞士信贷涨2%，瑞士政府已向议会提交为瑞银收购瑞信提供1090亿瑞郎担保的计划。飞利浦涨5%，预计今年将就其全球召回的呼吸系统设备达成和解。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":236955656736800,"gmtCreate":1698886184151,"gmtModify":1698886189036,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/236955656736800","repostId":"2380626437","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216626060411088,"gmtCreate":1693905626613,"gmtModify":1693905630636,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216626060411088","repostId":"1195776321","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195776321","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1693901408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195776321?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-05 16:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动 | 一中概股大涨12%，携程、理想汽车下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195776321","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体走低。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月5日周二，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体走低。美国劳工部上周五(9月1日)表示，随着越来越多的美国人加入劳动力队伍，失业率从7月份的3.5%上升至3.8%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ce3291f7d4cb88236ebd6267ab6df3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>再鼎医药盘前大涨近12%，H股今日收涨超5%。消息面上，再鼎医药申报的马吉妥昔单抗注射液已在中国获批上市，本次获批的适应症为用于转移性HER2阳性乳腺癌患者三线及以上治疗。此外，港交所资料显示，小摩于8月29日增持再鼎医药H股98.3479万股，总金额约为1783.15万港元。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077a9a804a1742bce663dc11bd7ef215\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"128\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>名创优品盘前涨超8%。日前公布的2023财年整体业绩表现再创新高，营收及盈利双双取得历史性突破。另外，第四财季营收32.5亿元创下历史新高。</p><p></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b192e14e55261af07125eea8177fe8e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"133\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>携程网盘前跌近4%。携程二季度净营业收入为112亿元，同比增长180%。二季度归属公司股东净利润6.31亿元，同比大增814.49%。但较一季度的34亿元大幅减少逾81%。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1caa13befef2026dcb3582da3d05c6fc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"126\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>热门中概股盘前普跌。截至发稿，理想汽车跌超4%，贝壳跌超3%，哔哩哔哩2.89%，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多跌超1%，蔚来跌0.91%，小鹏汽车跌0.11%。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446be267f7985be73050a10af713e8e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"131\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>黑石、爱彼迎盘前上涨。消息面上，标准普尔道琼斯指数公司宣布，黑石和爱彼迎将加入标准普尔500指数，取代林肯国民公司和纽威品牌公司，变动将于9月18日交易开始前生效。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f30f525e0372bc04ad017e4d7b038db\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"128\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f777fccc9cf2127b605998921751471\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>越南电动汽车制造商VinFast盘前跌近8%，此前已连跌四个交易日，累计下跌超64%。VinFast首席执行官黎氏秋水日前表示，对公司在纳斯达克上市后的股价波动并不担忧，称其相信VinFast的潜力，尤其是考虑到东南亚电动汽车生态系统正在迅速扩张。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94707d514394a5d5375ca6f211bbc635\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动 | 一中概股大涨12%，携程、理想汽车下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前异动 | 一中概股大涨12%，携程、理想汽车下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-09-05 16:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月5日周二，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体走低。美国劳工部上周五(9月1日)表示，随着越来越多的美国人加入劳动力队伍，失业率从7月份的3.5%上升至3.8%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ce3291f7d4cb88236ebd6267ab6df3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>再鼎医药盘前大涨近12%，H股今日收涨超5%。消息面上，再鼎医药申报的马吉妥昔单抗注射液已在中国获批上市，本次获批的适应症为用于转移性HER2阳性乳腺癌患者三线及以上治疗。此外，港交所资料显示，小摩于8月29日增持再鼎医药H股98.3479万股，总金额约为1783.15万港元。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077a9a804a1742bce663dc11bd7ef215\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"128\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>名创优品盘前涨超8%。日前公布的2023财年整体业绩表现再创新高，营收及盈利双双取得历史性突破。另外，第四财季营收32.5亿元创下历史新高。</p><p></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b192e14e55261af07125eea8177fe8e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"133\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>携程网盘前跌近4%。携程二季度净营业收入为112亿元，同比增长180%。二季度归属公司股东净利润6.31亿元，同比大增814.49%。但较一季度的34亿元大幅减少逾81%。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1caa13befef2026dcb3582da3d05c6fc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"126\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>热门中概股盘前普跌。截至发稿，理想汽车跌超4%，贝壳跌超3%，哔哩哔哩2.89%，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多跌超1%，蔚来跌0.91%，小鹏汽车跌0.11%。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446be267f7985be73050a10af713e8e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"131\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>黑石、爱彼迎盘前上涨。消息面上，标准普尔道琼斯指数公司宣布，黑石和爱彼迎将加入标准普尔500指数，取代林肯国民公司和纽威品牌公司，变动将于9月18日交易开始前生效。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f30f525e0372bc04ad017e4d7b038db\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"128\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f777fccc9cf2127b605998921751471\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>越南电动汽车制造商VinFast盘前跌近8%，此前已连跌四个交易日，累计下跌超64%。VinFast首席执行官黎氏秋水日前表示，对公司在纳斯达克上市后的股价波动并不担忧，称其相信VinFast的潜力，尤其是考虑到东南亚电动汽车生态系统正在迅速扩张。</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94707d514394a5d5375ca6f211bbc635\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","ZLAB":"再鼎医药"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195776321","content_text":"9月5日周二，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段集体走低。美国劳工部上周五(9月1日)表示，随着越来越多的美国人加入劳动力队伍，失业率从7月份的3.5%上升至3.8%。再鼎医药盘前大涨近12%，H股今日收涨超5%。消息面上，再鼎医药申报的马吉妥昔单抗注射液已在中国获批上市，本次获批的适应症为用于转移性HER2阳性乳腺癌患者三线及以上治疗。此外，港交所资料显示，小摩于8月29日增持再鼎医药H股98.3479万股，总金额约为1783.15万港元。名创优品盘前涨超8%。日前公布的2023财年整体业绩表现再创新高，营收及盈利双双取得历史性突破。另外，第四财季营收32.5亿元创下历史新高。携程网盘前跌近4%。携程二季度净营业收入为112亿元，同比增长180%。二季度归属公司股东净利润6.31亿元，同比大增814.49%。但较一季度的34亿元大幅减少逾81%。热门中概股盘前普跌。截至发稿，理想汽车跌超4%，贝壳跌超3%，哔哩哔哩2.89%，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多跌超1%，蔚来跌0.91%，小鹏汽车跌0.11%。黑石、爱彼迎盘前上涨。消息面上，标准普尔道琼斯指数公司宣布，黑石和爱彼迎将加入标准普尔500指数，取代林肯国民公司和纽威品牌公司，变动将于9月18日交易开始前生效。越南电动汽车制造商VinFast盘前跌近8%，此前已连跌四个交易日，累计下跌超64%。VinFast首席执行官黎氏秋水日前表示，对公司在纳斯达克上市后的股价波动并不担忧，称其相信VinFast的潜力，尤其是考虑到东南亚电动汽车生态系统正在迅速扩张。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947027408,"gmtCreate":1682389872205,"gmtModify":1682389876940,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947027408","repostId":"1175829315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1175829315","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682329507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175829315?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-24 17:45","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"DBS Downgrades OCBC and UOB to \"Hold\" As It Sees \"Limited Catalysts for Now\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175829315","media":"The Edge Singapore","summary":"DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) to “hold” as she sees limited catalysts for both banks for now.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Lim has also lowered her target price estimates. OCBC’s target price is now at $13 from $14 previously while UOB’s target price is at $30.30, down from $34.20 previously.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Higher downside risks for Singapore banking sector overall</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In an overall report on the Singapore banking sector dated April 20, Lim notes several higher downside risks ahead such as limited upside for net interest margins (NIMs).</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“As [the] US Federal Reserve (US Fed) comes close to a peak in this interest rate cycle, we believe there are limited upside for NIMs going forward for Singapore banks, especially as pressures from funding costs continue,” she writes.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Economists from DBS Group Research expect the US Fed to hike rates once more during the 2Q2023 to 5.25%, which is the terminal rate for the current rate hike cycle.</p><p>The analyst also sees increasing downside risks from potential rate cuts in FY2023 should a recession force the Fed to cut rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Singapore Banks have seen strong q-o-q NIM expansion since 1QFY2022, with 4QFY2022 NIMs hitting a decade high as interest rates soared. However, stronger deposit pressures seen during 1QFY2023 will likely lead to an even more muted q-o-q NIM expansion ahead, and possibly deterioration across the banks,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Amid a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, the analyst sees loan growth and recovery in non-interest income may be “weaker than hoped for”.</p><p>“Industry loan growth continues to be weak as system loans contracted by -1.1% year-to-date (ytd) as of end-February,” she writes.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We expect Singapore banks to see muted loan growth of 0% to 1% q-o-q during 1QFY2023. While the banks have largely seen an improvement in wealth management activities during January and February 2023, March 2023 saw volatile and risk-off markets as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse troubles hit the markets,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In addition, Lim believes that market activities are unlikely to rebound back to its FY2021 levels in the near future, in part due to the increasing global economic uncertainties.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Furthermore, asset quality risks continue to be on the rise through FY2023 as recession risks become more imminent and geopolitical tensions continue to increase alongside an inflationary environment.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As it is, Singapore’s economy has already begun to see a sharper-than-expected slowdown during the 1Q2023 alongside US banks, which are increasingly starting to price a recession in the 2H2023 in their outlook.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe there is further downside from higher specific provisions as the economy starts to slow, though banks may reverse some general provisions to buffer credit costs,” says Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That said, all three banks began the current cycle with strong provisions buffers and now have non-performing asset (NPA) coverage ratios of 98% to 122%. “[This is] a key support to valuations in our view which limits downside.”</p><p>“As Fed comes close to a peak in this cycle with potential rate cuts looming in 2HFY2024, with limited NIM upside, a more muted loan growth and non-interest income on the cards, amidst increasing asset quality risks, we cut FY2023-FY2024 earnings by 3%-4% for the banks,” says Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe Singapore banks’ strong provisions buffer, strong dividend yield of [over] 5% and excess capital (room for dividend upside) will limit downside in the near term, lest a global recession or banking crisis happen,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>‘Hold’ for OCBC and UOB</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a separate report for OCBC also dated April 20, the analyst feels OCBC’s earnings may have peaked after the bank benefitted “significantly” from the enhancement of its franchise value after it acquired Wing Hang Bank in 2014.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“[This is] given that Greater China continues to be management’s focus as a key market outside Singapore, contributing close to 15% of the group’s income in FY2022,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The bank aims to capture rising Asian wealth and support increasing Mainland China-Hong Kong and Asean-Greater China flows to deepen its regional presence and drive sustainable growth,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As the Fed rate comes close to its peak in this cycle, Lim sees limited upside for OCBC’s NIMs especially as pressure from funding costs continues to grow.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“While OCBC’s 4QFY2022 NIM improved 25 basis points (bps) q-o-q to 2.31%, management has guided for FY2023 NIM of [around] 2.0% - 2.1%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“OCBC is likely to see muted loan growth in 1QFY2023, having seen a 3% q-o-q decline during 4QFY2022. With wealth management and card fees seeing a rebound in January and February 2023, this is likely to be partially offset by Great Eastern Holdings’ (GEH) performance,” says Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Recall that 4QFY2022 saw unrealised losses at GEH due to the yield curve inversion, which was still the case as of end-March. While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Lim has lowered her earnings estimates for OCBC by 3% to 4% for FY2023 to FY2024, which she recognises as being lower than the consensus. The lowered earnings come after she cuts her NIM estimates for FY2023 and FY2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Our target price represents [around 1x FY2024, below -0.5 standard deviation (s.d.) of OCBC’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple, which we believe is a fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for OCBC’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114% and potential excess capital of [over] $5 billion during FY2023. We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114%,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Lim also sees limited upside for UOB’s NIMs as the Fed rate cycle nears its peak with pressure from funding costs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">UOB’s offering of higher fixed deposit interest rates on top of higher interest rates for its flagship current account savings accounts (CASA) compared to its peers in 2HFY2022 will weigh on its upcoming NIMs during the 1QFY2023, notes Lim.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“[This is] as an increase in the cost of deposits offsets an increase in asset yields. While we anticipate a stronger q-o-q improvement in fee income from wealth and card fees and stronger treasury and investment income q-o-q, we believe there are still downside risks to management’s guidance for double-digit fee income growth through FY2023 in a more uncertain macroeconomic environment,” she writes.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That said, UOB’s acquisition of Citi’s consumer businesses in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam will allow the bank to accelerate, scale up, and deepen its Asean franchise.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Her new target price for UOB represents around 1x FY2024, near -0.5 s.d. of UOB’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In her report, Lim believes this is a “fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for UOB’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We believe the downside to UOB’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 98%,” she says.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">UOB and OCBC will be releasing their 1QFY2023 results on April 27 and May 10 respectively. DBS will release its results on May 2.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Shares in OCBC and UOB closed at $12.82 and $29.58 respectively.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1655096814160","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DBS Downgrades OCBC and UOB to \"Hold\" As It Sees \"Limited Catalysts for Now\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDBS Downgrades OCBC and UOB to \"Hold\" As It Sees \"Limited Catalysts for Now\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-24 17:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-downgrades-ocbc-and-uob-hold-it-sees-limited-catalysts-now><strong>The Edge Singapore</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) to “hold” as she sees limited catalysts for both banks for now.Lim ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-downgrades-ocbc-and-uob-hold-it-sees-limited-catalysts-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"U11.SI":"大华银行","O39.SI":"华侨银行"},"source_url":"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-downgrades-ocbc-and-uob-hold-it-sees-limited-catalysts-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175829315","content_text":"DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (UOB) to “hold” as she sees limited catalysts for both banks for now.Lim has also lowered her target price estimates. OCBC’s target price is now at $13 from $14 previously while UOB’s target price is at $30.30, down from $34.20 previously.Higher downside risks for Singapore banking sector overallIn an overall report on the Singapore banking sector dated April 20, Lim notes several higher downside risks ahead such as limited upside for net interest margins (NIMs).“As [the] US Federal Reserve (US Fed) comes close to a peak in this interest rate cycle, we believe there are limited upside for NIMs going forward for Singapore banks, especially as pressures from funding costs continue,” she writes.Economists from DBS Group Research expect the US Fed to hike rates once more during the 2Q2023 to 5.25%, which is the terminal rate for the current rate hike cycle.The analyst also sees increasing downside risks from potential rate cuts in FY2023 should a recession force the Fed to cut rates.“Singapore Banks have seen strong q-o-q NIM expansion since 1QFY2022, with 4QFY2022 NIMs hitting a decade high as interest rates soared. However, stronger deposit pressures seen during 1QFY2023 will likely lead to an even more muted q-o-q NIM expansion ahead, and possibly deterioration across the banks,” she says.Amid a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, the analyst sees loan growth and recovery in non-interest income may be “weaker than hoped for”.“Industry loan growth continues to be weak as system loans contracted by -1.1% year-to-date (ytd) as of end-February,” she writes.“We expect Singapore banks to see muted loan growth of 0% to 1% q-o-q during 1QFY2023. While the banks have largely seen an improvement in wealth management activities during January and February 2023, March 2023 saw volatile and risk-off markets as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse troubles hit the markets,” she adds.In addition, Lim believes that market activities are unlikely to rebound back to its FY2021 levels in the near future, in part due to the increasing global economic uncertainties.Furthermore, asset quality risks continue to be on the rise through FY2023 as recession risks become more imminent and geopolitical tensions continue to increase alongside an inflationary environment.As it is, Singapore’s economy has already begun to see a sharper-than-expected slowdown during the 1Q2023 alongside US banks, which are increasingly starting to price a recession in the 2H2023 in their outlook.“We believe there is further downside from higher specific provisions as the economy starts to slow, though banks may reverse some general provisions to buffer credit costs,” says Lim.That said, all three banks began the current cycle with strong provisions buffers and now have non-performing asset (NPA) coverage ratios of 98% to 122%. “[This is] a key support to valuations in our view which limits downside.”“As Fed comes close to a peak in this cycle with potential rate cuts looming in 2HFY2024, with limited NIM upside, a more muted loan growth and non-interest income on the cards, amidst increasing asset quality risks, we cut FY2023-FY2024 earnings by 3%-4% for the banks,” says Lim.“We believe Singapore banks’ strong provisions buffer, strong dividend yield of [over] 5% and excess capital (room for dividend upside) will limit downside in the near term, lest a global recession or banking crisis happen,” she adds.‘Hold’ for OCBC and UOBIn a separate report for OCBC also dated April 20, the analyst feels OCBC’s earnings may have peaked after the bank benefitted “significantly” from the enhancement of its franchise value after it acquired Wing Hang Bank in 2014.“[This is] given that Greater China continues to be management’s focus as a key market outside Singapore, contributing close to 15% of the group’s income in FY2022,” she says.“The bank aims to capture rising Asian wealth and support increasing Mainland China-Hong Kong and Asean-Greater China flows to deepen its regional presence and drive sustainable growth,” she adds.As the Fed rate comes close to its peak in this cycle, Lim sees limited upside for OCBC’s NIMs especially as pressure from funding costs continues to grow.“While OCBC’s 4QFY2022 NIM improved 25 basis points (bps) q-o-q to 2.31%, management has guided for FY2023 NIM of [around] 2.0% - 2.1%.“OCBC is likely to see muted loan growth in 1QFY2023, having seen a 3% q-o-q decline during 4QFY2022. With wealth management and card fees seeing a rebound in January and February 2023, this is likely to be partially offset by Great Eastern Holdings’ (GEH) performance,” says Lim.“Recall that 4QFY2022 saw unrealised losses at GEH due to the yield curve inversion, which was still the case as of end-March. While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.Lim has lowered her earnings estimates for OCBC by 3% to 4% for FY2023 to FY2024, which she recognises as being lower than the consensus. The lowered earnings come after she cuts her NIM estimates for FY2023 and FY2024.“Our target price represents [around 1x FY2024, below -0.5 standard deviation (s.d.) of OCBC’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple, which we believe is a fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for OCBC’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks,” she says.“We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114% and potential excess capital of [over] $5 billion during FY2023. We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114%,” she adds.Lim also sees limited upside for UOB’s NIMs as the Fed rate cycle nears its peak with pressure from funding costs.UOB’s offering of higher fixed deposit interest rates on top of higher interest rates for its flagship current account savings accounts (CASA) compared to its peers in 2HFY2022 will weigh on its upcoming NIMs during the 1QFY2023, notes Lim.“[This is] as an increase in the cost of deposits offsets an increase in asset yields. While we anticipate a stronger q-o-q improvement in fee income from wealth and card fees and stronger treasury and investment income q-o-q, we believe there are still downside risks to management’s guidance for double-digit fee income growth through FY2023 in a more uncertain macroeconomic environment,” she writes.“While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.That said, UOB’s acquisition of Citi’s consumer businesses in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam will allow the bank to accelerate, scale up, and deepen its Asean franchise.Her new target price for UOB represents around 1x FY2024, near -0.5 s.d. of UOB’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple.In her report, Lim believes this is a “fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for UOB’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks.”“We believe the downside to UOB’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 98%,” she says.UOB and OCBC will be releasing their 1QFY2023 results on April 27 and May 10 respectively. DBS will release its results on May 2.Shares in OCBC and UOB closed at $12.82 and $29.58 respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944518029,"gmtCreate":1681912768761,"gmtModify":1681912773182,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944518029","repostId":"1142957366","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142957366","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681911035,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142957366?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-19 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘 | 美股三大指数集体低开，阿莱恩斯西部银行涨20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142957366","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月19日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.36%，纳指跌0.74%，标普500指数跌0.47%。摩根士丹利跌超3%，Q1净利润同比下滑近20%，Q1总存款为3475.2亿美元，低于市场预期。阿斯麦跌","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月19日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.36%，纳指跌0.74%，标普500指数跌0.47%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8098d21c1981423d0f3cca989675c419\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>跌超3%，Q1净利润同比下滑近20%，Q1总存款为3475.2亿美元，低于市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>跌近3%，Q1净预订额38亿欧元，环比减少约40.6%。</p><p>区块链概念股普跌，Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain跌超6%，Coinbase跌超4%。</p><p>新能源车股集体下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">阿莱恩斯西部银行</a>涨20%，自3月31日至4月14日，存款增加20亿美元，受保险存款总额占存款总额的73%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘 | 美股三大指数集体低开，阿莱恩斯西部银行涨20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘 | 美股三大指数集体低开，阿莱恩斯西部银行涨20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-19 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月19日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.36%，纳指跌0.74%，标普500指数跌0.47%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8098d21c1981423d0f3cca989675c419\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>跌超3%，Q1净利润同比下滑近20%，Q1总存款为3475.2亿美元，低于市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>跌近3%，Q1净预订额38亿欧元，环比减少约40.6%。</p><p>区块链概念股普跌，Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain跌超6%，Coinbase跌超4%。</p><p>新能源车股集体下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">阿莱恩斯西部银行</a>涨20%，自3月31日至4月14日，存款增加20亿美元，受保险存款总额占存款总额的73%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4589":"SVB概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142957366","content_text":"4月19日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.36%，纳指跌0.74%，标普500指数跌0.47%。摩根士丹利跌超3%，Q1净利润同比下滑近20%，Q1总存款为3475.2亿美元，低于市场预期。阿斯麦跌近3%，Q1净预订额38亿欧元，环比减少约40.6%。区块链概念股普跌，Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain跌超6%，Coinbase跌超4%。新能源车股集体下跌，小鹏汽车跌超7%，理想汽车跌近4%，特斯拉、蔚来跌超3%。阿莱恩斯西部银行涨20%，自3月31日至4月14日，存款增加20亿美元，受保险存款总额占存款总额的73%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945832437,"gmtCreate":1681425549429,"gmtModify":1681425551876,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945832437","repostId":"2327422131","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942645516,"gmtCreate":1681221043535,"gmtModify":1681221048475,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942645516","repostId":"1166375973","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166375973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681215320,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166375973?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-11 20:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前 | 市场交投情绪谨慎！美股指期货弱势震荡","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166375973","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月11日，美股指期货走低，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.14%，标普500指数期货跌0.02%。悲观情绪笼罩美股！对冲基金做空规模创2011年以来新高根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月11日，美股指期货走低，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.14%，标普500指数期货跌0.02%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e0f5f9547a21f822d2665c2aa78aa7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"207\"/></p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1177304049\" title=\"悲观情绪笼罩美股！对冲基金做空规模创2011年以来新高\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">悲观情绪笼罩美股！对冲基金做空规模创2011年以来新高</a></strong><p></p><p>根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据，截至4月11日周二，以对冲基金为主的大型投机者，在标普500指数电子迷你期货中的净空头头寸增加至约 321000 份合约。这是自2011年11月美国主权信用评级下调以来最悲观的数据。</p><p>但媒体分析称，或许与去年10月的情况类似，谨慎情绪可能会再次为市场反弹奠定基础，也就是说：几乎每个人都在为2023年股市将创下新低做准备时，标普500指数反而会上涨。如果经济数据好于预期，将迫使卖空者回补头寸。 </p><p><strong>盘前行情</strong></p><p>美股区块链概念股盘前普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStratey</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>涨超2%；消息面，比特币价格突破3万美元，年内涨幅超70%；</p><p>热门中概股盘前部分走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨超2%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">陆金所</a>盘前涨超4%，公司已申请以介绍方式于港交所上市，预期将于4月14日开始交易。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">维珍轨道</a>盘前跌超22%，公司将于4月13日起暂停股票交易；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray</a>盘前跌超6%，公司2023财年第三季度收入低于预期；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前跌超5%，消息面上，Moderna额外的流感候选疫苗推出时间延迟；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KMX\">车美仕</a>盘前涨超6%，2023年Q4每股收益0.44美元，远超市场预期。</p><p><strong>欧洲市场</strong></p><p>欧洲主要股指多数上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.35%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>涨0.25%，法国CAC40涨0.82%。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2da63c93c15644d91417a797542c6d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"289\"/></p><strong>原油</strong><p></p><p>原油期货震荡走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.2%，报79.58美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.29%，报83.94美元/桶。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0200a973b5eb1346e71713c9f477b6d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a798828e72b23d6682dbb0c6b00c707\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><strong>黄金</strong><p></p><p>黄金期货日内走高，截止发稿，涨0.6%，报2015.8美元/盎司。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef97a3f54e0c1a7ce8821d7448545153\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前 | 市场交投情绪谨慎！美股指期货弱势震荡</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前 | 市场交投情绪谨慎！美股指期货弱势震荡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-11 20:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月11日，美股指期货走低，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.14%，标普500指数期货跌0.02%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e0f5f9547a21f822d2665c2aa78aa7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"207\"/></p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1177304049\" title=\"悲观情绪笼罩美股！对冲基金做空规模创2011年以来新高\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">悲观情绪笼罩美股！对冲基金做空规模创2011年以来新高</a></strong><p></p><p>根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据，截至4月11日周二，以对冲基金为主的大型投机者，在标普500指数电子迷你期货中的净空头头寸增加至约 321000 份合约。这是自2011年11月美国主权信用评级下调以来最悲观的数据。</p><p>但媒体分析称，或许与去年10月的情况类似，谨慎情绪可能会再次为市场反弹奠定基础，也就是说：几乎每个人都在为2023年股市将创下新低做准备时，标普500指数反而会上涨。如果经济数据好于预期，将迫使卖空者回补头寸。 </p><p><strong>盘前行情</strong></p><p>美股区块链概念股盘前普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStratey</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>涨超2%；消息面，比特币价格突破3万美元，年内涨幅超70%；</p><p>热门中概股盘前部分走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨超2%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">陆金所</a>盘前涨超4%，公司已申请以介绍方式于港交所上市，预期将于4月14日开始交易。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">维珍轨道</a>盘前跌超22%，公司将于4月13日起暂停股票交易；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray</a>盘前跌超6%，公司2023财年第三季度收入低于预期；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前跌超5%，消息面上，Moderna额外的流感候选疫苗推出时间延迟；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KMX\">车美仕</a>盘前涨超6%，2023年Q4每股收益0.44美元，远超市场预期。</p><p><strong>欧洲市场</strong></p><p>欧洲主要股指多数上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.35%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>涨0.25%，法国CAC40涨0.82%。</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2da63c93c15644d91417a797542c6d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"289\"/></p><strong>原油</strong><p></p><p>原油期货震荡走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.2%，报79.58美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.29%，报83.94美元/桶。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0200a973b5eb1346e71713c9f477b6d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a798828e72b23d6682dbb0c6b00c707\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><strong>黄金</strong><p></p><p>黄金期货日内走高，截止发稿，涨0.6%，报2015.8美元/盎司。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef97a3f54e0c1a7ce8821d7448545153\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"BK4506":"内地教育股","BK4566":"资本集团","MSTR.AU":"MORNINGSTAR INTL SHARES ACT","BK4509":"腾讯概念","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","LU":"陆金所","BK4588":"碎股","VORBQ":"Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.","KC":"金山云","VUKE.UK":"英国富时100","MSTR":"MicroStrategy","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","GOTU":"高途","KMX":"车美仕","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","VORB":"维珍轨道","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","LI":"理想汽车","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","BK4204":"教育服务","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166375973","content_text":"4月11日，美股指期货走低，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.04%，纳指期货跌0.14%，标普500指数期货跌0.02%。悲观情绪笼罩美股！对冲基金做空规模创2011年以来新高根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据，截至4月11日周二，以对冲基金为主的大型投机者，在标普500指数电子迷你期货中的净空头头寸增加至约 321000 份合约。这是自2011年11月美国主权信用评级下调以来最悲观的数据。但媒体分析称，或许与去年10月的情况类似，谨慎情绪可能会再次为市场反弹奠定基础，也就是说：几乎每个人都在为2023年股市将创下新低做准备时，标普500指数反而会上涨。如果经济数据好于预期，将迫使卖空者回补头寸。 盘前行情美股区块链概念股盘前普涨，Riot Blockchain、Marathon Digital、MicroStratey涨超3%，Bit Digital、Coinbase涨超2%；消息面，比特币价格突破3万美元，年内涨幅超70%；热门中概股盘前部分走强，金山云涨超6%，哔哩哔哩涨超3%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车、高途涨超2%；陆金所盘前涨超4%，公司已申请以介绍方式于港交所上市，预期将于4月14日开始交易。维珍轨道盘前跌超22%，公司将于4月13日起暂停股票交易；Tilray盘前跌超6%，公司2023财年第三季度收入低于预期；Moderna盘前跌超5%，消息面上，Moderna额外的流感候选疫苗推出时间延迟；车美仕盘前涨超6%，2023年Q4每股收益0.44美元，远超市场预期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指多数上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.35%，英国富时100涨0.25%，法国CAC40涨0.82%。原油原油期货震荡走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.2%，报79.58美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.29%，报83.94美元/桶。黄金黄金期货日内走高，截止发稿，涨0.6%，报2015.8美元/盎司。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942337934,"gmtCreate":1681132877328,"gmtModify":1681132881522,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942337934","repostId":"1136504426","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942958279,"gmtCreate":1681117013292,"gmtModify":1681117018003,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942958279","repostId":"1163154040","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941425855,"gmtCreate":1680559247077,"gmtModify":1680559251922,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941425855","repostId":"1192741388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192741388","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680528590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192741388?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-03 21:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘 | 三大指数涨跌不一，石油股普涨，特斯拉跌超3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192741388","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘上涨110.80点，涨幅0.33%，报33384.95点。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月3日周一，美股开盘涨跌不一，道琼斯指数开盘上涨110.80点，涨幅0.33%，报33384.95点；标普500指数开盘下跌5.11点，跌幅0.12%，报4104.20点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌78.08点，跌幅0.64%，报12143.82点。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/076f2f190fe8e9e01c8416f4768be3af\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>石油板块走高，壳牌、英国石油涨约5%，雪佛龙涨约4%，此前欧佩克+多国宣布自愿石油减产，国际油价飙升。</p><p>特斯拉跌超3%，Q1交付量创新高，分析师仍对利润率保持谨慎。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2c5d30e14e21c43503feac7061de35\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>中概新能源车股涨跌不一，小鹏汽车涨近3%，理想汽车跌0.5%，蔚来跌超2%。</p><p>中概教育股走强，好未来涨超4%，有道涨近3%，新东方涨超2%。</p><p>瑞银跌近3%，瑞士信贷跌近1%，报道称瑞士联邦检察官已对瑞信在政府支持下被瑞银收购一事展开调查。</p><p>美股百货商店板块走高，梅西百货涨超8%，科尔士百货、诺德斯特龙涨超3%。</p><p>黑石集团跌近2%，黑石房地产投资信托基金（BREIT）在3月份出现45亿美元的赎回请求。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘 | 三大指数涨跌不一，石油股普涨，特斯拉跌超3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘 | 三大指数涨跌不一，石油股普涨，特斯拉跌超3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-03 21:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月3日周一，美股开盘涨跌不一，道琼斯指数开盘上涨110.80点，涨幅0.33%，报33384.95点；标普500指数开盘下跌5.11点，跌幅0.12%，报4104.20点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌78.08点，跌幅0.64%，报12143.82点。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/076f2f190fe8e9e01c8416f4768be3af\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>石油板块走高，壳牌、英国石油涨约5%，雪佛龙涨约4%，此前欧佩克+多国宣布自愿石油减产，国际油价飙升。</p><p>特斯拉跌超3%，Q1交付量创新高，分析师仍对利润率保持谨慎。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2c5d30e14e21c43503feac7061de35\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>中概新能源车股涨跌不一，小鹏汽车涨近3%，理想汽车跌0.5%，蔚来跌超2%。</p><p>中概教育股走强，好未来涨超4%，有道涨近3%，新东方涨超2%。</p><p>瑞银跌近3%，瑞士信贷跌近1%，报道称瑞士联邦检察官已对瑞信在政府支持下被瑞银收购一事展开调查。</p><p>美股百货商店板块走高，梅西百货涨超8%，科尔士百货、诺德斯特龙涨超3%。</p><p>黑石集团跌近2%，黑石房地产投资信托基金（BREIT）在3月份出现45亿美元的赎回请求。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192741388","content_text":"4月3日周一，美股开盘涨跌不一，道琼斯指数开盘上涨110.80点，涨幅0.33%，报33384.95点；标普500指数开盘下跌5.11点，跌幅0.12%，报4104.20点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌78.08点，跌幅0.64%，报12143.82点。石油板块走高，壳牌、英国石油涨约5%，雪佛龙涨约4%，此前欧佩克+多国宣布自愿石油减产，国际油价飙升。特斯拉跌超3%，Q1交付量创新高，分析师仍对利润率保持谨慎。中概新能源车股涨跌不一，小鹏汽车涨近3%，理想汽车跌0.5%，蔚来跌超2%。中概教育股走强，好未来涨超4%，有道涨近3%，新东方涨超2%。瑞银跌近3%，瑞士信贷跌近1%，报道称瑞士联邦检察官已对瑞信在政府支持下被瑞银收购一事展开调查。美股百货商店板块走高，梅西百货涨超8%，科尔士百货、诺德斯特龙涨超3%。黑石集团跌近2%，黑石房地产投资信托基金（BREIT）在3月份出现45亿美元的赎回请求。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943508600,"gmtCreate":1679529863201,"gmtModify":1679529865489,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943508600","repostId":"2321891580","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949997950,"gmtCreate":1678286840270,"gmtModify":1678286844025,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949997950","repostId":"1176864701","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949997052,"gmtCreate":1678286822777,"gmtModify":1678286826891,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949997052","repostId":"1167447308","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949994737,"gmtCreate":1678286806929,"gmtModify":1678286811958,"author":{"id":"3579135726453814","authorId":"3579135726453814","name":"Kevin29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcf91fefd04d4906409e47143e582b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579135726453814","authorIdStr":"3579135726453814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949994737","repostId":"2317283696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317283696","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678281914,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317283696?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 21:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新美联储通讯社”暗示：美联储或将在3月加息50个基点！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317283696","media":"金十数据","summary":"Timiraos援引德银经济学家的观点表示，鲍威尔的言论似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门，而是可能成为了一种“事实”......","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>Timiraos援引德银经济学家的观点表示，鲍威尔的言论似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门，而是可能成为了一种“事实”......</blockquote><p>“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新撰文称，<b>美联储将考虑本月加息50个基点，并可能在今年将利率上调至此前预期的水平，为表现出惊人强劲势头的经济降温。</b></p><p>Timiraos表示，鲍威尔周二对国会议员的讲话为美联储降低价格压力的重大策略转变奠定了基础。他说，<b>通胀上升和就业增加可能导致官员们改变最近采取的小幅加息25个基点的策略</b>。鲍威尔对参议院银行委员会说：</p><blockquote>“最新的经济数据强于预期，这表明终端利率可能高于此前的预期，如果所有数据都表明加快紧缩是有必要的，我们将准备加快加息步伐。”</blockquote><p>分析人士说，<b>鲍威尔的言论反映出，人们对美联储在未来几年不发生经济衰退的情况下将通胀率降至2%目标的能力信心下降</b>。研究公司SGH Macro Advisors的首席美国经济学家Tim Duy说：</p><blockquote>“美联储越来越接近于接受这样一个事实：在任何合理的时间框架内，他们都不会在不导致硬着陆的情况下将通胀率恢复到2%。”</blockquote><p>美联储官员上个月放慢了加息步伐，将基准联邦基金利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%之间。在此之前，美联储在去年11月、12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点。</p><p>官员们上个月表示，采取较小的步伐将更好地让他们评估去年快速加息的影响，并降低过度加息的风险。</p><p>去年12月，他们中的大多数人认为，今年他们将把利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年。美联储官员将在3月的议息会议上提交新的预测。</p><p>鲍威尔说，<b>官员们对下次加息规模的决定也将受到政府周五公布的2月份非农就业报告和下周公布的通胀报告的影响</b>。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti表示，<b>他的总体言论“似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门”，而是成为了一种“事实”，现在只有惊人的疲弱数据才能阻止出现这种结果</b>。</p><p>自美联储官员2月1日召开会议以来，几份经济报告显示，1月份的招聘、支出和通胀都强于预期。更重要的是，修正后的数据显示，<b>通胀和劳动力需求并没有像去年底最初报道的那样疲软</b>。鲍威尔说：</p><blockquote>“在某种程度上，我们真的看到了我们认为正在看到的情况的逆转。”</blockquote><p>Timiraos表示，上个月，鲍威尔也曾表示，放慢加息速度将更好地确保美联储不会过多加息。但他却在周二“转向”，并说：</p><blockquote>“在我看来，数据中没有任何迹象表明我们收紧得太紧了。”</blockquote><p>鲍威尔说，近期的上涨在一定程度上可能反映了1月份异常温暖的天气，这可能会干扰经济数据的季节性调整。但他补充称，这种逆转的幅度，以及对之前数据的修正“<b>表明通胀压力高于我们上次议息会议时的预期</b>。”</p><p>Luzzetti说，鲍威尔对修正数据的强调承认，<b>美国经济最近的强劲势头可能并不仅限于一个月</b>。他说：</p><blockquote>“我们从2月会议以来得到的几个月的数据几乎都在推动美联储向更鹰派的方向推进。”</blockquote><p>Timiraos还说，在听证会中<b>，两党多数议员对鲍威尔过去一年的利率管理方式表示赞赏，或只是提出了温和的批评。</b></p><p>在听证会中，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦对他提出了质疑，因为她担心美联储遏制通胀的努力可能导致比美联储官员所说的更大程度的失业。沃伦称，随着美联储试图减缓经济增长，近200万的工人可能会失业。</p><p>鲍威尔说，通货膨胀“非常高，它严重伤害了这个国家所有的劳动人民。”</p><p>沃伦问道，这是否意味着失业工人将“只能忍受”？<b>鲍威尔的回答可能反应出了美联储的坚决</b>，他说：</p><blockquote>“如果我们放弃工作，通胀保持在5%或6%，工人阶级的生活会更好吗?”</blockquote><p>鲍威尔星期三将重登国会山，参加众议院一个委员会举行的第二天听证会。<b>这将是其在3月议息会议前发表的最后一次公开讲话，也是美联储下次会议前影响市场预期的最后一次机会</b>。官员们将于周六开始他们的会前静默期。</p><p><b>近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期</b>。美联储上次开会时，利率期货市场的投资者预计，官员们今年只会将联邦基金利率再上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息。</p><p>根据芝商所的“美联储观察工具”，在周二的听证会之前，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。在听证会后，投资者预计联邦基金利率今年将升至5.5%至5.75%之间，本月加息50个基点的概率从听证会前的32%升至72%，而在两周前，这一几率仅不到30%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2017c0e818e1617d6e16ec6757cf64\" tg-width=\"1292\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新美联储通讯社”暗示：美联储或将在3月加息50个基点！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新美联储通讯社”暗示：美联储或将在3月加息50个基点！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-08 21:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107997&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Timiraos援引德银经济学家的观点表示，鲍威尔的言论似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门，而是可能成为了一种“事实”......“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新撰文称，美联储将考虑本月加息50个基点，并可能在今年将利率上调至此前预期的水平，为表现出惊人强劲势头的经济降温。Timiraos表示，鲍威尔周二对国会议员的讲话为美联储降低价格压力的重大策略转变奠定了基础。他...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107997&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e827672d2816b0c7bda740b158b322d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107997&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317283696","content_text":"Timiraos援引德银经济学家的观点表示，鲍威尔的言论似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门，而是可能成为了一种“事实”......“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新撰文称，美联储将考虑本月加息50个基点，并可能在今年将利率上调至此前预期的水平，为表现出惊人强劲势头的经济降温。Timiraos表示，鲍威尔周二对国会议员的讲话为美联储降低价格压力的重大策略转变奠定了基础。他说，通胀上升和就业增加可能导致官员们改变最近采取的小幅加息25个基点的策略。鲍威尔对参议院银行委员会说：“最新的经济数据强于预期，这表明终端利率可能高于此前的预期，如果所有数据都表明加快紧缩是有必要的，我们将准备加快加息步伐。”分析人士说，鲍威尔的言论反映出，人们对美联储在未来几年不发生经济衰退的情况下将通胀率降至2%目标的能力信心下降。研究公司SGH Macro Advisors的首席美国经济学家Tim Duy说：“美联储越来越接近于接受这样一个事实：在任何合理的时间框架内，他们都不会在不导致硬着陆的情况下将通胀率恢复到2%。”美联储官员上个月放慢了加息步伐，将基准联邦基金利率上调了25个基点，至4.5%至4.75%之间。在此之前，美联储在去年11月、12月分别加息75个基点和50个基点。官员们上个月表示，采取较小的步伐将更好地让他们评估去年快速加息的影响，并降低过度加息的风险。去年12月，他们中的大多数人认为，今年他们将把利率提高到5%至5.5%之间，并将这一水平维持到2024年。美联储官员将在3月的议息会议上提交新的预测。鲍威尔说，官员们对下次加息规模的决定也将受到政府周五公布的2月份非农就业报告和下周公布的通胀报告的影响。但德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti表示，他的总体言论“似乎不仅仅为50个基点打开了大门”，而是成为了一种“事实”，现在只有惊人的疲弱数据才能阻止出现这种结果。自美联储官员2月1日召开会议以来，几份经济报告显示，1月份的招聘、支出和通胀都强于预期。更重要的是，修正后的数据显示，通胀和劳动力需求并没有像去年底最初报道的那样疲软。鲍威尔说：“在某种程度上，我们真的看到了我们认为正在看到的情况的逆转。”Timiraos表示，上个月，鲍威尔也曾表示，放慢加息速度将更好地确保美联储不会过多加息。但他却在周二“转向”，并说：“在我看来，数据中没有任何迹象表明我们收紧得太紧了。”鲍威尔说，近期的上涨在一定程度上可能反映了1月份异常温暖的天气，这可能会干扰经济数据的季节性调整。但他补充称，这种逆转的幅度，以及对之前数据的修正“表明通胀压力高于我们上次议息会议时的预期。”Luzzetti说，鲍威尔对修正数据的强调承认，美国经济最近的强劲势头可能并不仅限于一个月。他说：“我们从2月会议以来得到的几个月的数据几乎都在推动美联储向更鹰派的方向推进。”Timiraos还说，在听证会中，两党多数议员对鲍威尔过去一年的利率管理方式表示赞赏，或只是提出了温和的批评。在听证会中，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦对他提出了质疑，因为她担心美联储遏制通胀的努力可能导致比美联储官员所说的更大程度的失业。沃伦称，随着美联储试图减缓经济增长，近200万的工人可能会失业。鲍威尔说，通货膨胀“非常高，它严重伤害了这个国家所有的劳动人民。”沃伦问道，这是否意味着失业工人将“只能忍受”？鲍威尔的回答可能反应出了美联储的坚决，他说：“如果我们放弃工作，通胀保持在5%或6%，工人阶级的生活会更好吗?”鲍威尔星期三将重登国会山，参加众议院一个委员会举行的第二天听证会。这将是其在3月议息会议前发表的最后一次公开讲话，也是美联储下次会议前影响市场预期的最后一次机会。官员们将于周六开始他们的会前静默期。近期强劲的经济数据改变了投资者的利率预期。美联储上次开会时，利率期货市场的投资者预计，官员们今年只会将联邦基金利率再上调一次，升至4.9%的高点，并于今年秋季开始降息。根据芝商所的“美联储观察工具”，在周二的听证会之前，投资者预计利率将在年中升至5.5%左右，并一直保持到2023年底。在听证会后，投资者预计联邦基金利率今年将升至5.5%至5.75%之间，本月加息50个基点的概率从听证会前的32%升至72%，而在两周前，这一几率仅不到30%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}