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2023-05-24

Palantir Technologies Inc. is a software company that specializes in data analytics and has been in the news recently due to its initial public offering (IPO) in September 2020. The company's shares have been volatile since its IPO, and investors are curious about the outlook for the rest of the calendar year. This essay will discuss Palantir's share outlook for the rest of the year. Palantir's shares have been on a rollercoaster ride since its IPO. The company's shares opened at $10 per share, and within a month, the shares had surged to $29.23. However, the shares have since fallen, and as of August 2021, the shares are trading at around $23 per share. The volatility in the share price can be attributed to several factors, including the company's financial performance, market conditions,

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blah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234412205121624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970444571,"gmtCreate":1684883292593,"gmtModify":1684883301798,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Palantir Technologies Inc. is a software company that specializes in data analytics and has been in the news recently due to its initial public offering (IPO) in September 2020. 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The company's shares opened at $10 per share, and within a month, the shares had surged to $29.23. However, the shares have since fallen, and as of August 2021, the shares are trading at around $23 per share. The volatility in the share price can be attributed to several factors, including the company's financial performance, market conditions,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970444571","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963015003,"gmtCreate":1668554119703,"gmtModify":1676538073645,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963015003","repostId":"1166351757","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166351757","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668522804,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166351757?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-15 22:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSM Surged 11% in Morning Trading After Buffett Took a $5 Billion Stake in It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166351757","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing surged 11% in morning trading after Buffett took a $5 billion sta","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a> surged 11% in morning trading after Buffett took a $5 billion stake in it.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e461891932d573b70ae8fe01647c58\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"842\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSM Surged 11% in Morning Trading After Buffett Took a $5 Billion Stake in It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSM Surged 11% in Morning Trading After Buffett Took a $5 Billion Stake in It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-15 22:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a> surged 11% in morning trading after Buffett took a $5 billion stake in it.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e461891932d573b70ae8fe01647c58\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"842\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166351757","content_text":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing surged 11% in morning trading after Buffett took a $5 billion stake in it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917681384,"gmtCreate":1665499331648,"gmtModify":1676537617181,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917681384","repostId":"1103545080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103545080","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665493900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103545080?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 21:11","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"IMF Cuts 2023 Growth Outlook Amid Colliding Global Shocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103545080","media":"Reuters","summary":"The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2023 amid colliding pr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2023 amid colliding pressures from the war in Ukraine, high energy and food prices, inflation and sharply higher interest rates, warning that conditions could worsen significantly next year.</p><p>The Fund said its latest World Economic Outlook forecasts show that a third of the world economy will likely contract by next year, marking a sobering start to the first in-person IMF and World Bank annual meetings in three years.</p><p>&#34;The three largest economies, the United States, China and the euro area will continue to stall,&#34; IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. &#34;In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.&#34;</p><p>The IMF said global GDP growth next year will slow to 2.7%, compared to a 2.9% forecast in July, as higher interest rates slow the U.S. economy, Europe struggles with spiking gas prices and China contends with continued COVID-19 lockdowns and a weakening property sector.</p><p>The Fund is keeping its 2022 growth forecast at 3.2%, reflecting stronger-than-expected output in Europe but a weaker performance in the United States, after torrid 6.0% global growth in 2021.</p><p>U.S. growth this year will be a meager 1.6% - a 0.7 percentage point downgrade from July, reflecting an unexpected second-quarter GDP contraction. The IMF kept its 2023 U.S. growth forecast unchanged at 1.0%.</p><p>A U.S. Treasury official said before the release of the IMF forecasts that the U.S. economy &#34;remains quite resilient, even in the face of some significant global headwinds.&#34;</p><p>PRIORITY: INFLATION</p><p>The IMF said its outlook was subject to a delicate balancing act by central banks to fight inflation without over-tightening, which could push the global economy into an &#34;unnecessarily severe recession&#34; and cause disruptions to financial markets and pain for developing countries. But it pointed squarely at controlling inflation as the bigger priority.</p><p>&#34;The hard-won credibility of central banks could be undermined if they misjudge yet again the stubborn persistence of inflation,&#34; Gourinchas said. &#34;This would prove much more detrimental to future macroeconomic stability.&#34;</p><p>The Fund forecast headline consumer price inflation peaking at 9.5% in the third quarter of 2022, declining to 4.7% by the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p>A &#34;plausible combination of shocks&#34; including a 30% spike in oil prices from current levels could darken the outlook considerably, the IMF said, pushing global growth down to 1.0% next year - a level associated with widely falling real incomes.</p><p>Other components of this &#34;downside scenario&#34; include a steep drop-off in Chinese property sector investment, a sharp tightening of financial conditions brought on by emerging market currency depreciations and labor markets remaining overheated resulting in lower potential output.</p><p>The IMF put a 25% probability of global growth falling below 2% next year - a phenomenon that has occurred only five times since 1970 - and said there was a more than 10% chance of a global GDP contraction.</p><p>DOLLAR PRESSURES</p><p>These shocks could keep inflation elevated for longer, which in turn could keep upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, now at its strongest since the early 2000s. The IMF said this is pressuring emerging markets, and further dollar strength could increase the likelihood of debt distress for some countries.</p><p>Emerging market debt relief is expected to be a major topic of discussion among the world&#39;s global financial policymakers at the Washington meetings, and Gourinchas said now was the time for emerging markets to &#34;batten down the hatches&#34; to prepare for more difficult conditions. The appropriate policy for most was prioritizing monetary policy for price stability, letting currencies adjust and &#34;conserving valuable foreign exchange reserves for when financial conditions really worsen.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IMF Cuts 2023 Growth Outlook Amid Colliding Global Shocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIMF Cuts 2023 Growth Outlook Amid Colliding Global Shocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-cuts-2023-growth-outlook-130551366.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2023 amid colliding pressures from the war in Ukraine, high energy and food prices, inflation and sharply higher interest ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-cuts-2023-growth-outlook-130551366.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-cuts-2023-growth-outlook-130551366.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103545080","content_text":"The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecast for 2023 amid colliding pressures from the war in Ukraine, high energy and food prices, inflation and sharply higher interest rates, warning that conditions could worsen significantly next year.The Fund said its latest World Economic Outlook forecasts show that a third of the world economy will likely contract by next year, marking a sobering start to the first in-person IMF and World Bank annual meetings in three years.\"The three largest economies, the United States, China and the euro area will continue to stall,\" IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. \"In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.\"The IMF said global GDP growth next year will slow to 2.7%, compared to a 2.9% forecast in July, as higher interest rates slow the U.S. economy, Europe struggles with spiking gas prices and China contends with continued COVID-19 lockdowns and a weakening property sector.The Fund is keeping its 2022 growth forecast at 3.2%, reflecting stronger-than-expected output in Europe but a weaker performance in the United States, after torrid 6.0% global growth in 2021.U.S. growth this year will be a meager 1.6% - a 0.7 percentage point downgrade from July, reflecting an unexpected second-quarter GDP contraction. The IMF kept its 2023 U.S. growth forecast unchanged at 1.0%.A U.S. Treasury official said before the release of the IMF forecasts that the U.S. economy \"remains quite resilient, even in the face of some significant global headwinds.\"PRIORITY: INFLATIONThe IMF said its outlook was subject to a delicate balancing act by central banks to fight inflation without over-tightening, which could push the global economy into an \"unnecessarily severe recession\" and cause disruptions to financial markets and pain for developing countries. But it pointed squarely at controlling inflation as the bigger priority.\"The hard-won credibility of central banks could be undermined if they misjudge yet again the stubborn persistence of inflation,\" Gourinchas said. \"This would prove much more detrimental to future macroeconomic stability.\"The Fund forecast headline consumer price inflation peaking at 9.5% in the third quarter of 2022, declining to 4.7% by the fourth quarter of 2023.A \"plausible combination of shocks\" including a 30% spike in oil prices from current levels could darken the outlook considerably, the IMF said, pushing global growth down to 1.0% next year - a level associated with widely falling real incomes.Other components of this \"downside scenario\" include a steep drop-off in Chinese property sector investment, a sharp tightening of financial conditions brought on by emerging market currency depreciations and labor markets remaining overheated resulting in lower potential output.The IMF put a 25% probability of global growth falling below 2% next year - a phenomenon that has occurred only five times since 1970 - and said there was a more than 10% chance of a global GDP contraction.DOLLAR PRESSURESThese shocks could keep inflation elevated for longer, which in turn could keep upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, now at its strongest since the early 2000s. The IMF said this is pressuring emerging markets, and further dollar strength could increase the likelihood of debt distress for some countries.Emerging market debt relief is expected to be a major topic of discussion among the world's global financial policymakers at the Washington meetings, and Gourinchas said now was the time for emerging markets to \"batten down the hatches\" to prepare for more difficult conditions. The appropriate policy for most was prioritizing monetary policy for price stability, letting currencies adjust and \"conserving valuable foreign exchange reserves for when financial conditions really worsen.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913381896,"gmtCreate":1663912138816,"gmtModify":1676537362225,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913381896","repostId":"2269171051","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906080971,"gmtCreate":1659453560796,"gmtModify":1705980518177,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906080971","repostId":"1110799720","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110799720","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659454654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110799720?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-02 23:37","market":"other","language":"en","title":"S&P 500: Taking Profit On The Long Positions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110799720","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI am taking profits on the tactical long positions.At this point, I am neutral, with a bearis","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>I am taking profits on the tactical long positions.</li><li>At this point, I am neutral, with a bearish bias.</li><li>The fundamentals have deteriorated, while stocks sharply bounced.</li></ul><p><b>Recent Recommendations of S&amp;P 500</b></p><p>Here is my recent record on S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) (SP500) (SPX):</p><ul><li>After being a long-term bull, I turned bearish and recommended asellonSPYon March 25th 2022, at 451 on SPY. My bearish thesis was very simple: I anticipated that the Fed would increase the interest rates aggressively to combat the rising inflation, which will cause a recession and the recessionary bear market.</li><li>On April 22, I reiterated the expectation that the Fed would aggressively raise interest rates in 2022, when I recommended a sell on SP500 with the index value at 4271.</li><li>On May 3rd, I pointed out that the liquidity risk due to expectations of monetary policy tightening is easing and that monetary policy expectations are priced in (the peak Fed hawkishness) and I suggested covering short positions and going neutral on SPY at around 415.</li><li>On May 30, I recommended to start buying S&amp;P 500, with SPY at 413, and continued to recommend buying S&amp;P 500 on June 27with SPY at 388, and July 18 with SPY at 388. The bullish thesis was also very simple: we were past the peak inflation and expected to be past the peak headline inflation given the falling commodity prices, and thus, past the Fed hawkishness. Further, given the still positive yield curve spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond and the 3-month Treasury Bill, the probability of an imminent recession was very low. Thus, I expected at least a nice (and significant) counter-trend summer rally.</li></ul><p><b>Downgrade from buy to neutral</b></p><p>Since reaching the (cycle) bottom on June 16th, S&amp;P 500 is up almost 13%, and SPY is currently at 411 near the breakeven of my May 30th buying point, and significantly higher than my June 27th and July 18th buying points. I am willing to take profits on these long positions. Here is the SPY chart that illustrates the significant countertrend bounce to the top range:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8922eaf1a5e1edfdacb69e1c401c3bc9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>I am downgrading SPY to neutral for these reasons:</p><p>1) The 10Y-3mo spread has significantly narrowed to 0.26%, which is although still positive, getting really close to inversion. Thus, the probability of an imminent recession is too high to ignore now. Here is the chart;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6a289024ab1fe23863cb2e03cafdaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>2) Even more problematic is that the narrowing of the 10Y-3mo is also created by the falling 10Y yields, which signals the economic slowdown. More importantly, the 10Y yields are falling due to the falling real rates, which is signaling a possible flight to quality and expectations on policy easing (not tightening). Here is the chart of 10Y TIPS (real interest rates), which have fallen towards the zero percent level (0.20%):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a40a5667fce1317ab25f12a2362313\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>3) The credit risk is rising. The spread between BBB-10Y is reaching the cyclical high at 2.42%. Although this spread is still modest and requires the rise above 3% to be considered high, the trend is to the upside.</p><p>4) The market is now pricing that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in July of 2023, which indicates the expectations of a possible recession in 2023. Here are the current monetary policy expectations, based on Global Academic View report:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a4d5b38a7bfe1df8cb60589bfba130\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global Academic View</p><p>Considering the point 2 (falling real interest rates) and 4 (expectations on interest rate cuts), the market is likely to respond negatively to slowing economic data and start pricing the <b>Phase 2</b>of the bear market - an imminent recession selloff.</p><p>Thus, I am willing to take profit on the summer rally bounce and evaluate what exactly the market is pricing next and initiate the new positions accordingly.</p><p><b>The Bearish case</b></p><p>The bearish case is now the baseline expectations, as long as the 10y-3mo spreads invert, and the 10Y continues to fall. The bearish case is the Phase 2 of the full bear market - the pricing of an imminent recession, where the economic data slows and corporate earnings get downgraded.</p><p><b>The Bullish case</b></p><p>The bullish case is the soft landing case, where the Fed makes the full dovish pivot and does not increase interest rates above the 10Y yields.</p><p><b>The Neutral case</b></p><p>The fact is, we still don&#39;t have enough information with respect to the bearish case or the bullish case. We don&#39;t know how is the Fed reacting to the potential rising unemployment, with still elevated inflation. Will the Fed tolerate a higher inflation to prevent a rising unemployment? Will the Fed specifically acknowledge that the 10Y yields are the celling for the Federal Funds rate?</p><p>The Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is currently in the neutral, but also that further interest rate hikes are warranted. Well, this will invert the 10y-3mo curve and likely cause a recession.</p><p>More importantly, the S&amp;P500 is now rising, and many are likely to start buying, while the shorts are likely to be forced to cover. So, the summer rally could continue - despite the worsening fundamentals.</p><p>I view this technical picture more as an opportunity to initiate short positions (if the bear case prevails). Thus, at this point, the neutral position means, I am not buying the summer rally anymore, and taking profits and tactical longs. It also means, I am waiting to initiate new positions, as the new set up emerges.</p><p><b>Note on recent SPY performance</b></p><p>Over the last month, SPY, which is the ETF that tracks S&amp;P500, is up by 8.16%, led by Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) up by 16.7% and Technology (XLK) up by 12%. Both of these are cyclical sectors that have bounced from the deep sell-offs, but given the expectations of an imminent recession, the performance of these sectors is unsustainable. It is likely that the recent performance is just a bounce, meaning, as the economy starts to visibly slow down, these cyclical sectors are more likely to continue to sell off, dragging the SPY to the next leg lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ecfe935e912e330cbe58152e9c0c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500: Taking Profit On The Long Positions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500: Taking Profit On The Long Positions\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-02 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528449-sp500-taking-profit-on-long-positions><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI am taking profits on the tactical long positions.At this point, I am neutral, with a bearish bias.The fundamentals have deteriorated, while stocks sharply bounced.Recent Recommendations of S&...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528449-sp500-taking-profit-on-long-positions\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528449-sp500-taking-profit-on-long-positions","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110799720","content_text":"SummaryI am taking profits on the tactical long positions.At this point, I am neutral, with a bearish bias.The fundamentals have deteriorated, while stocks sharply bounced.Recent Recommendations of S&P 500Here is my recent record on S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) (SP500) (SPX):After being a long-term bull, I turned bearish and recommended asellonSPYon March 25th 2022, at 451 on SPY. My bearish thesis was very simple: I anticipated that the Fed would increase the interest rates aggressively to combat the rising inflation, which will cause a recession and the recessionary bear market.On April 22, I reiterated the expectation that the Fed would aggressively raise interest rates in 2022, when I recommended a sell on SP500 with the index value at 4271.On May 3rd, I pointed out that the liquidity risk due to expectations of monetary policy tightening is easing and that monetary policy expectations are priced in (the peak Fed hawkishness) and I suggested covering short positions and going neutral on SPY at around 415.On May 30, I recommended to start buying S&P 500, with SPY at 413, and continued to recommend buying S&P 500 on June 27with SPY at 388, and July 18 with SPY at 388. The bullish thesis was also very simple: we were past the peak inflation and expected to be past the peak headline inflation given the falling commodity prices, and thus, past the Fed hawkishness. Further, given the still positive yield curve spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond and the 3-month Treasury Bill, the probability of an imminent recession was very low. Thus, I expected at least a nice (and significant) counter-trend summer rally.Downgrade from buy to neutralSince reaching the (cycle) bottom on June 16th, S&P 500 is up almost 13%, and SPY is currently at 411 near the breakeven of my May 30th buying point, and significantly higher than my June 27th and July 18th buying points. I am willing to take profits on these long positions. Here is the SPY chart that illustrates the significant countertrend bounce to the top range:SPY data by YChartsI am downgrading SPY to neutral for these reasons:1) The 10Y-3mo spread has significantly narrowed to 0.26%, which is although still positive, getting really close to inversion. Thus, the probability of an imminent recession is too high to ignore now. Here is the chart;FRED2) Even more problematic is that the narrowing of the 10Y-3mo is also created by the falling 10Y yields, which signals the economic slowdown. More importantly, the 10Y yields are falling due to the falling real rates, which is signaling a possible flight to quality and expectations on policy easing (not tightening). Here is the chart of 10Y TIPS (real interest rates), which have fallen towards the zero percent level (0.20%):FRED3) The credit risk is rising. The spread between BBB-10Y is reaching the cyclical high at 2.42%. Although this spread is still modest and requires the rise above 3% to be considered high, the trend is to the upside.4) The market is now pricing that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in July of 2023, which indicates the expectations of a possible recession in 2023. Here are the current monetary policy expectations, based on Global Academic View report:Global Academic ViewConsidering the point 2 (falling real interest rates) and 4 (expectations on interest rate cuts), the market is likely to respond negatively to slowing economic data and start pricing the Phase 2of the bear market - an imminent recession selloff.Thus, I am willing to take profit on the summer rally bounce and evaluate what exactly the market is pricing next and initiate the new positions accordingly.The Bearish caseThe bearish case is now the baseline expectations, as long as the 10y-3mo spreads invert, and the 10Y continues to fall. The bearish case is the Phase 2 of the full bear market - the pricing of an imminent recession, where the economic data slows and corporate earnings get downgraded.The Bullish caseThe bullish case is the soft landing case, where the Fed makes the full dovish pivot and does not increase interest rates above the 10Y yields.The Neutral caseThe fact is, we still don't have enough information with respect to the bearish case or the bullish case. We don't know how is the Fed reacting to the potential rising unemployment, with still elevated inflation. Will the Fed tolerate a higher inflation to prevent a rising unemployment? Will the Fed specifically acknowledge that the 10Y yields are the celling for the Federal Funds rate?The Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is currently in the neutral, but also that further interest rate hikes are warranted. Well, this will invert the 10y-3mo curve and likely cause a recession.More importantly, the S&P500 is now rising, and many are likely to start buying, while the shorts are likely to be forced to cover. So, the summer rally could continue - despite the worsening fundamentals.I view this technical picture more as an opportunity to initiate short positions (if the bear case prevails). Thus, at this point, the neutral position means, I am not buying the summer rally anymore, and taking profits and tactical longs. It also means, I am waiting to initiate new positions, as the new set up emerges.Note on recent SPY performanceOver the last month, SPY, which is the ETF that tracks S&P500, is up by 8.16%, led by Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) up by 16.7% and Technology (XLK) up by 12%. Both of these are cyclical sectors that have bounced from the deep sell-offs, but given the expectations of an imminent recession, the performance of these sectors is unsustainable. It is likely that the recent performance is just a bounce, meaning, as the economy starts to visibly slow down, these cyclical sectors are more likely to continue to sell off, dragging the SPY to the next leg lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078721507,"gmtCreate":1657755897409,"gmtModify":1676536055563,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078721507","repostId":"9068316704","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051029131,"gmtCreate":1654611153823,"gmtModify":1676535477907,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GSK\">$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GSK\">$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$</a>Coins","text":"$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$Coins","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e07a26f0bca91b28865721f9b528b4c1","width":"828","height":"1995"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051029131","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053843342,"gmtCreate":1654522447886,"gmtModify":1676535461589,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>Coins","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$Coins","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9c5cdb30cff0967bc9d0aea4660a21c","width":"828","height":"1875"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053843342","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053857889,"gmtCreate":1654522202941,"gmtModify":1676535461500,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053857889","repostId":"1135252069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135252069","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654520068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135252069?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-06 20:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Price Target Changes｜XOM Raised to $107 By MS; Snap Lowered to $30 By DB","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135252069","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Citigroup cut PVH Corp. price target from $94 to $73. PVH shares fell 0.7% to close at $71.96 on Fri","content":"<div>\n<p>Citigroup cut PVH Corp. price target from $94 to $73. PVH shares fell 0.7% to close at $71.96 on Friday.Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Exxon Mobil, Raises Price Target to $107 XOM shares rose ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/06/27562779/deutsche-bank-maintains-buy-on-snap-lowers-price-target-to-30\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Price Target Changes｜XOM Raised to $107 By MS; Snap Lowered to $30 By DB</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrice Target Changes｜XOM Raised to $107 By MS; Snap Lowered to $30 By DB\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-06 20:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/06/27562779/deutsche-bank-maintains-buy-on-snap-lowers-price-target-to-30><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Citigroup cut PVH Corp. price target from $94 to $73. PVH shares fell 0.7% to close at $71.96 on Friday.Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Exxon Mobil, Raises Price Target to $107 XOM shares rose ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/06/27562779/deutsche-bank-maintains-buy-on-snap-lowers-price-target-to-30\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","RMD":"瑞思迈","SNAP":"Snap Inc","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","PVH":"PVH Corp","XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/06/27562779/deutsche-bank-maintains-buy-on-snap-lowers-price-target-to-30","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135252069","content_text":"Citigroup cut PVH Corp. price target from $94 to $73. PVH shares fell 0.7% to close at $71.96 on Friday.Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Exxon Mobil, Raises Price Target to $107 XOM shares rose 0.18% to $6.31 in pre-market trading.Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy on Snap, Lowers Price Target to $30.Barclays lowered RH price target from $528 to $400. RH shares rose 0.5% to $306.00 in pre-market trading.HC Wainwright & Co. reduced the price target on Bit Digital, Inc. from $14 to $4. Bit Digital shares rose 6.7% to $1.75 in pre-market trading.Morgan Stanley raised CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. price target from $195 to $215. CrowdStrike shares rose 4.3% to $168.99 in pre-market trading.Needham cut price target for Mereo BioPharma Group plc from $10 to $5. Mereo BioPharma shares rose 0.9% to $0.5750 in pre-market trading.RBC Capital raised ResMed Inc. price target from $233 to $244. ResMed shares fell 1.4% to close at $208.31 on Friday.Goldman Sachs cut the price target on Lincoln National Corporation from $78 to $60. Lincoln National shares rose 1.3% to $56.40 in pre-market trading.SVB Leerink raised the price target on Seagen Inc. from $155 to $159. Seagen shares slipped 0.1% to $139.92 in pre-market trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PVH":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"CRWD":0.9,"SNAP":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"RMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050885474,"gmtCreate":1654169508998,"gmtModify":1676535405890,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a>Coins","text":"$Salesforce.com(CRM)$Coins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050885474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025298273,"gmtCreate":1653694907892,"gmtModify":1676535326899,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>Blah","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>Blah","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$Blah","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a39c965d5bab94cdcb23414480aa6a50","width":"750","height":"2034"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025298273","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026539877,"gmtCreate":1653399128799,"gmtModify":1676535274259,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026539877","repostId":"9026502798","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9026502798,"gmtCreate":1653397303415,"gmtModify":1676535273931,"author":{"id":"9000000000000689","authorId":"9000000000000689","name":"BellaFaraday","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4710ee7ef9b07790b4f0c5fa685b6bbd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000689","authorIdStr":"9000000000000689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’m torn aboutMeta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB) because its core Facebook business is social media done right (or right-ish). True, the social network has courted more than its fair share of controversies. However, the scope of influence is unprecedented and Facebook offers a utilitarian profile that competing platforms lack. Arguably, this is the main reason why Facebook’s age demographics are more evenly distributed and less peaky than its rivals. But the thing is, we must set aside our personal feelings about our prospective investments and recognize when certain initiatives are simply not working. The fact that FB has suffered a 43% decline YTD and is down 40% over the trailing year may be enough for some folks to put it in a list of large-cap stocks to avoid. Another issue that works against","listText":"I’m torn aboutMeta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB) because its core Facebook business is social media done right (or right-ish). True, the social network has courted more than its fair share of controversies. However, the scope of influence is unprecedented and Facebook offers a utilitarian profile that competing platforms lack. Arguably, this is the main reason why Facebook’s age demographics are more evenly distributed and less peaky than its rivals. But the thing is, we must set aside our personal feelings about our prospective investments and recognize when certain initiatives are simply not working. The fact that FB has suffered a 43% decline YTD and is down 40% over the trailing year may be enough for some folks to put it in a list of large-cap stocks to avoid. Another issue that works against","text":"I’m torn aboutMeta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB) because its core Facebook business is social media done right (or right-ish). True, the social network has courted more than its fair share of controversies. However, the scope of influence is unprecedented and Facebook offers a utilitarian profile that competing platforms lack. Arguably, this is the main reason why Facebook’s age demographics are more evenly distributed and less peaky than its rivals. But the thing is, we must set aside our personal feelings about our prospective investments and recognize when certain initiatives are simply not working. The fact that FB has suffered a 43% decline YTD and is down 40% over the trailing year may be enough for some folks to put it in a list of large-cap stocks to avoid. Another issue that works against","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026502798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026860592,"gmtCreate":1653355005316,"gmtModify":1676535266520,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Coins","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$Coins","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6752b47501e6d5119972179d96c0404","width":"750","height":"1980"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026860592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026018888,"gmtCreate":1653295207044,"gmtModify":1676535255254,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Coins","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$Coins","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd647ca82e6756794350fd16b240859f","width":"750","height":"1925"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026018888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021814782,"gmtCreate":1653025505446,"gmtModify":1676535210913,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ROOT\">$Root, Inc.(ROOT)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ROOT\">$Root, Inc.(ROOT)$</a>Coins","text":"$Root, Inc.(ROOT)$Coins","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73a0030544238dacbcaa189df9ce5e3f","width":"750","height":"1980"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021814782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021063948,"gmtCreate":1652974844384,"gmtModify":1676535200134,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021063948","repostId":"9021088636","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9021088636,"gmtCreate":1652974159325,"gmtModify":1676535199954,"author":{"id":"3574749287543892","authorId":"3574749287543892","name":"AntLiew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14dc4e36e90cdfc60979ceb077d41331","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574749287543892","authorIdStr":"3574749287543892"},"themes":[],"title":"INVEST IN $CLNE$","htmlText":"Buy $CLNE$ and save our planet. This company converts animal manure into Renewable Natural Gas (RNG). This removes methane from the atmosphere. Methane is more damaging a greenhouse gas than CO2 is.&nbsp;&nbsp;RNG is being used to power heavy vehicles equiped with gas engines. Apparently EV heavy vehicles are just not feasiable. So invest in $CLNE$ and save rhe planet","listText":"Buy $CLNE$ and save our planet. This company converts animal manure into Renewable Natural Gas (RNG). This removes methane from the atmosphere. Methane is more damaging a greenhouse gas than CO2 is.&nbsp;&nbsp;RNG is being used to power heavy vehicles equiped with gas engines. Apparently EV heavy vehicles are just not feasiable. So invest in $CLNE$ and save rhe planet","text":"Buy $CLNE$ and save our planet. This company converts animal manure into Renewable Natural Gas (RNG). This removes methane from the atmosphere. Methane is more damaging a greenhouse gas than CO2 is. RNG is being used to power heavy vehicles equiped with gas engines. Apparently EV heavy vehicles are just not feasiable. So invest in $CLNE$ and save rhe planet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021088636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023131180,"gmtCreate":1652879833140,"gmtModify":1676535179669,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023131180","repostId":"9023104632","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9023104632,"gmtCreate":1652878519737,"gmtModify":1676535179297,"author":{"id":"9000000000000359","authorId":"9000000000000359","name":"zippyloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05637de10fca666e37d2c570e52012a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000359","authorIdStr":"9000000000000359"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> I am kinda surprised that the machines liked the Powell reiterate that they are going to keep raising rates until inflation is checked (paraphrase). I wonder if it will be another case of today's good news is tomorrow's bad news like last time the Powell talked. Maybe I missed something, but nothing almost 6% gain worthy happened...Who knows....","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> I am kinda surprised that the machines liked the Powell reiterate that they are going to keep raising rates until inflation is checked (paraphrase). I wonder if it will be another case of today's good news is tomorrow's bad news like last time the Powell talked. Maybe I missed something, but nothing almost 6% gain worthy happened...Who knows....","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$ I am kinda surprised that the machines liked the Powell reiterate that they are going to keep raising rates until inflation is checked (paraphrase). I wonder if it will be another case of today's good news is tomorrow's bad news like last time the Powell talked. Maybe I missed something, but nothing almost 6% gain worthy happened...Who knows....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023104632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020024063,"gmtCreate":1652540530453,"gmtModify":1676535118202,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579207760920564","authorIdStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Coins","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$Coins","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa6eccf6dcb8f7bb770d961ea04903ea","width":"750","height":"1980"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020024063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9970444571,"gmtCreate":1684883292593,"gmtModify":1684883301798,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Palantir Technologies Inc. is a software company that specializes in data analytics and has been in the news recently due to its initial public offering (IPO) in September 2020. The company's shares have been volatile since its IPO, and investors are curious about the outlook for the rest of the calendar year. This essay will discuss Palantir's share outlook for the rest of the year. Palantir's shares have been on a rollercoaster ride since its IPO. The company's shares opened at $10 per share, and within a month, the shares had surged to $29.23. However, the shares have since fallen, and as of August 2021, the shares are trading at around $23 per share. The volatility in the share price can be attributed to several factors, including the company's financial performance, market conditions,","listText":"Palantir Technologies Inc. is a software company that specializes in data analytics and has been in the news recently due to its initial public offering (IPO) in September 2020. The company's shares have been volatile since its IPO, and investors are curious about the outlook for the rest of the calendar year. This essay will discuss Palantir's share outlook for the rest of the year. Palantir's shares have been on a rollercoaster ride since its IPO. The company's shares opened at $10 per share, and within a month, the shares had surged to $29.23. However, the shares have since fallen, and as of August 2021, the shares are trading at around $23 per share. The volatility in the share price can be attributed to several factors, including the company's financial performance, market conditions,","text":"Palantir Technologies Inc. is a software company that specializes in data analytics and has been in the news recently due to its initial public offering (IPO) in September 2020. The company's shares have been volatile since its IPO, and investors are curious about the outlook for the rest of the calendar year. This essay will discuss Palantir's share outlook for the rest of the year. Palantir's shares have been on a rollercoaster ride since its IPO. The company's shares opened at $10 per share, and within a month, the shares had surged to $29.23. However, the shares have since fallen, and as of August 2021, the shares are trading at around $23 per share. The volatility in the share price can be attributed to several factors, including the company's financial performance, market conditions,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970444571","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371255247,"gmtCreate":1618955535189,"gmtModify":1704717325630,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please thanks!","text":"Like and comment please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371255247","repostId":"1121126533","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121126533","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618845021,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121126533?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Reports Earnings Tuesday. Here’s What to Expect.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121126533","media":"Barrons","summary":"The core debate on Netflix stock is whether the streaming video giant can maintain its subscriber gr","content":"<p>The core debate on Netflix stock is whether the streaming video giant can maintain its subscriber growth amid growing competition from new streaming services and from other forms of entertainment as the economy begins to emerge from the Covid-19 shutdown.</p>\n<p>Investors will get some new clues on that question on Tuesday, when Netflix (ticker: NFLX)&nbsp; reports first-quarter financial results.</p>\n<p>In reporting fourth-quarter results, Netflix projected March quarter revenue of $7.1 billion, with earnings of $2.97 a share, and 6 million net new subscribers. The net-add forecast for the March quarter is down from the 15.8 million spike in subscribers driven by Covid-19 in the year-ago first quarter.</p>\n<p>The company expects operating margin in the March quarter to jump to 25%, from 16.6% a year ago and 14.4% in the fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>Last quarter,Netflix surprised Wall Street&nbsp;with the news that it now expects to be cash flow break-even or better moving forward—and that it has begun considering stock buybacks. Netflix had $1.9 billion in positive free cash flow in 2020, thanks to lower production costs as a result of the pandemic, compared with a $3.3 billion cash flow loss in 2019. For 2021, Netflix expects to break even on a cash flow basis. Fourth-quarter cash flow was negative $138 million.</p>\n<p>Netflix also said that with $8.2 billion in cash and an untouched $750 million credit facility, “we believe we no longer have a need to raise external financing for our day-to-day operations.” In addition, the streaming giant said it had about $16 billion in debt overall and expects to maintain $10 billion to $15 billion in gross debt over time. Netflix said it would “explore returning cash to shareholders through ongoing stock buybacks,” something it hasn’t done since 2011.</p>\n<p>The stock shot higher on that news, but has since eased back, as attention turns to the potential for slowing near-term subscriber growth. Analyst sentiment heading into earnings is mixed.</p>\n<p>Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion, who has an Overweight rating and $605 target price on Netflix, is bullish on the stock heading into the report. While noting that the company was a beneficiary of the pandemic, he thinks Netflix will benefit from a combination of “a strong consumer” as the economy reopens, a clamp-down on password sharing, and “a pandemic tailwind that may remain in Europe.” Champion notes that a recent Piper survey of teens found that they allocate 32% of video consumption to Netflix, versus 8% for Hulu, the second-most popular subscription video service.</p>\n<p>UBS analyst John Hodulik notes that investors have become increasingly focused on how summer seasonality might manifest this year, given a reopening economy and the potential for added churn from higher subscription prices in some markets. The stock could remain volatile in the short-to-medium term, he warns. But the analyst “continues to view Netflix as the long-term winner within streaming media and remains constructive on the fundamentals.” He keeps a Buy rating and $650 target price on Netflix shares.</p>\n<p>Raymond James analyst Andrew Marok, who has a Market Perform rating on Netflix shares, remains cautious on the stock for now. Marok continues to view Netflix as a “long-term winner in the video-on-demand space,” he writes. He does see some near-terms risks, however: the pace of subscriber additions post-pandemic, the impact of the pandemic on 2021 content releases, and scaling competition from cheaper competitive subscription services.</p>\n<p>For Netflix’s June quarter, Wall Street consensus&nbsp;calls for revenue of $7.4 billion, earnings of $2.69 a share, and 4.4 million net subscriber additions.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Reports Earnings Tuesday. Here’s What to Expect.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Reports Earnings Tuesday. Here’s What to Expect.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-19 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-earnings-preview-51618605790?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The core debate on Netflix stock is whether the streaming video giant can maintain its subscriber growth amid growing competition from new streaming services and from other forms of entertainment as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-earnings-preview-51618605790?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-earnings-preview-51618605790?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121126533","content_text":"The core debate on Netflix stock is whether the streaming video giant can maintain its subscriber growth amid growing competition from new streaming services and from other forms of entertainment as the economy begins to emerge from the Covid-19 shutdown.\nInvestors will get some new clues on that question on Tuesday, when Netflix (ticker: NFLX)  reports first-quarter financial results.\nIn reporting fourth-quarter results, Netflix projected March quarter revenue of $7.1 billion, with earnings of $2.97 a share, and 6 million net new subscribers. The net-add forecast for the March quarter is down from the 15.8 million spike in subscribers driven by Covid-19 in the year-ago first quarter.\nThe company expects operating margin in the March quarter to jump to 25%, from 16.6% a year ago and 14.4% in the fourth quarter.\nLast quarter,Netflix surprised Wall Street with the news that it now expects to be cash flow break-even or better moving forward—and that it has begun considering stock buybacks. Netflix had $1.9 billion in positive free cash flow in 2020, thanks to lower production costs as a result of the pandemic, compared with a $3.3 billion cash flow loss in 2019. For 2021, Netflix expects to break even on a cash flow basis. Fourth-quarter cash flow was negative $138 million.\nNetflix also said that with $8.2 billion in cash and an untouched $750 million credit facility, “we believe we no longer have a need to raise external financing for our day-to-day operations.” In addition, the streaming giant said it had about $16 billion in debt overall and expects to maintain $10 billion to $15 billion in gross debt over time. Netflix said it would “explore returning cash to shareholders through ongoing stock buybacks,” something it hasn’t done since 2011.\nThe stock shot higher on that news, but has since eased back, as attention turns to the potential for slowing near-term subscriber growth. Analyst sentiment heading into earnings is mixed.\nPiper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion, who has an Overweight rating and $605 target price on Netflix, is bullish on the stock heading into the report. While noting that the company was a beneficiary of the pandemic, he thinks Netflix will benefit from a combination of “a strong consumer” as the economy reopens, a clamp-down on password sharing, and “a pandemic tailwind that may remain in Europe.” Champion notes that a recent Piper survey of teens found that they allocate 32% of video consumption to Netflix, versus 8% for Hulu, the second-most popular subscription video service.\nUBS analyst John Hodulik notes that investors have become increasingly focused on how summer seasonality might manifest this year, given a reopening economy and the potential for added churn from higher subscription prices in some markets. The stock could remain volatile in the short-to-medium term, he warns. But the analyst “continues to view Netflix as the long-term winner within streaming media and remains constructive on the fundamentals.” He keeps a Buy rating and $650 target price on Netflix shares.\nRaymond James analyst Andrew Marok, who has a Market Perform rating on Netflix shares, remains cautious on the stock for now. Marok continues to view Netflix as a “long-term winner in the video-on-demand space,” he writes. He does see some near-terms risks, however: the pace of subscriber additions post-pandemic, the impact of the pandemic on 2021 content releases, and scaling competition from cheaper competitive subscription services.\nFor Netflix’s June quarter, Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $7.4 billion, earnings of $2.69 a share, and 4.4 million net subscriber additions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546930995300503","authorId":"3546930995300503","name":"BerySu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3802c0d320bab512162287a76a2688","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3546930995300503","idStr":"3546930995300503"},"content":"pls reply to my comment","text":"pls reply to my comment","html":"pls reply to my comment"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352217154,"gmtCreate":1616978193478,"gmtModify":1704800280422,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like please!","listText":"Comment and like please!","text":"Comment and like please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352217154","repostId":"2123281118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3571101390027565","authorId":"3571101390027565","name":"guohaoer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db4aff1cc5b9b782a032756d0ead58b5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571101390027565","idStr":"3571101390027565"},"content":"Can you help to do the same","text":"Can you help to do the same","html":"Can you help to do the same"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105737221,"gmtCreate":1620338792763,"gmtModify":1704342051933,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","text":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105737221","repostId":"1188985089","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188985089","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620309854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188985089?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-06 22:04","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Yale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188985089","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage th","content":"<p>David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.</p><p>After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.</p><p>His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.</p><p>“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”</p><p>The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.</p><p>Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.</p><p><b>Early life and education</b></p><p>David F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,<i>A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.</i>One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"</p><p><b>Investment career</b></p><p>Swensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of&nbsp;Connecticut&nbsp;and&nbsp;Massachusetts.</p><p><b>Salomon Brothers</b></p><p>Following his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.</p><p><b>Lehman Brothers</b></p><p>Prior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers,&nbsp;specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according to<i>When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management</i>byRoger Lowenstein.</p><p><b>Yale University endowment</b></p><p>Swensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985.&nbsp;This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut.&nbsp;A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.</p><p>As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005.&nbsp;According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.</p><p>In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.</p><p>Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of the<i>Yale Daily News</i>. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.</p><p><b>Unconventional success</b></p><p>In 2005, Swensen wrote a book called<i>Unconventional Success,</i>which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:</p><ul><li>The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.</li><li>The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).</li><li>In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).</li></ul><p>He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYale's chief investment manager David Swensen dies at 67\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-06 22:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.</p><p>After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.</p><p>His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.</p><p>“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”</p><p>The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.</p><p>Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.</p><p><b>Early life and education</b></p><p>David F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,<i>A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.</i>One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"</p><p><b>Investment career</b></p><p>Swensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of&nbsp;Connecticut&nbsp;and&nbsp;Massachusetts.</p><p><b>Salomon Brothers</b></p><p>Following his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.</p><p><b>Lehman Brothers</b></p><p>Prior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers,&nbsp;specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according to<i>When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management</i>byRoger Lowenstein.</p><p><b>Yale University endowment</b></p><p>Swensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985.&nbsp;This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut.&nbsp;A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.</p><p>As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005.&nbsp;According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.</p><p>In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.</p><p>Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of the<i>Yale Daily News</i>. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.</p><p><b>Unconventional success</b></p><p>In 2005, Swensen wrote a book called<i>Unconventional Success,</i>which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:</p><ul><li>The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.</li><li>The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).</li><li>In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).</li></ul><p>He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188985089","content_text":"David Swensen, the head of Yale University’s endowment who helped reshape how institutions manage their money, has died from cancer aged 67.After stints at Salomon Brothers and Lehman Brothers, Swensen returned to his alma mater in 1985 to lead its investment office. At the time, endowments were typically conservatively managed, but Swensen overhauled the model dramatically, taking advantage of their long-term focus to invest heavily in the nascent private equity and hedge fund industries.His approach was so successful it revolutionised how endowments and many other institutional investors allocate their money, and the “Yale model” spread and helped change the wider investment industry.“With his guidance, Yale’s endowment yielded returns that established him as a legend among institutional investors,” Peter Salovey, Yale’s president, said in a statement. “A natural teacher, he prepared a generation of institutional investors who have gone on to lead investment offices at other colleges and universities, further extending the scope of David’s influence.”The Yale Investments Office managed $31.2bn as of June 2020, and says it has averaged annual returns of 12. 4 per cent a year over the past three decades. In the 2021 fiscal year its contributions accounted for over a third of the university’s overall revenues.Almost a quarter of the endowment is invested in venture capital, and combined with private equity, hedge funds and real estate, so-called “alternative” investments account for nearly three quarters of its assets.Early life and educationDavid F. Swensen was born inRiver Falls, Wisconsin. His father, Richard Swensen, was a chemistry professor and dean at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls. His mother, Grace, after raising six children, became a Lutheran minister. After graduating from River Falls High School in 1971 Swensen elected to stay in his hometown of River Falls and receive hisB.A.andB.S.in 1975 from theUniversity of Wisconsin-River Fallswhere his father Richard Swensen was a professor. Swensen pursued a PhD ineconomicsat Yale, where he wrote hisdissertation,A Model for the Valuation ofCorporate Bonds.One of Swensen's dissertation advisers at Yale wasJames Tobin, a top economic adviser toJohn F. Kennedyadministration and a future Nobel Prize laureate in economics. According to Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates and former chair of Yale's investment committee, \"When it snowed, David went to Jim's house to shovel the sidewalk\". James Tobin's Nobel Prize, among other things, was for his contribution in creation of Modern Portfolio Theory. Swensen was fascinated by the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. During his 2018 reunion speech Swensen said: \"For a given level of return, if you diversify you can get that return at lower risk. For a given level of risk, if you diversify you can get a higher return. That's pretty cool! Free lunch!\"Investment careerSwensen began his investment career in the early 1980s, and has since advised theCarnegie Corporation, theNew York Stock Exchange, theHoward Hughes Medical Institute, theCourtauld Institute of Art, theYale-New Haven Hospital, The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF), theEdna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the States of Connecticut and Massachusetts.Salomon BrothersFollowing his academic interest in valuation of corporate bonds, Swensen joined Salomon Brothers in 1980. This career move was suggested by a Salomon Brothers investment banker and Yale alumni, Gene Dattel, who was deeply impressed by Swensen. In 1981 Swensen worked to structure the world's first swap agreement, a deal betweenIBMand theWorld Bankwhich allowed to hedge their exposure to Swiss francs and German marks.Lehman BrothersPrior to joining Yale in 1985, Swensen spent six years onWall Streetas senior vice president atLehman Brothers, specializing in the firm'sswapactivities, and as an associate incorporate financeforSalomon Brothers(here he worked for three years prior to joining Lehman Brothers), where his work focused on developing new financial technologies. Swensen engineered the first swap transaction according toWhen Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital ManagementbyRoger Lowenstein.Yale University endowmentSwensen was tapped to serve as the Yale endowment manager at age 31 in 1985. This position was offered by Swensen's other dissertation adviser, Yale's provost,William Brainard. Swensen's candidacy was suggested by James Tobin, who, despite his former student's young age, believed he could be the right person. Swensen was hesitant about taking the job at first, since he did not know much about portfolio management aside from his studies in graduate school. Nevertheless, Brainard convinced him to take the position and Swensen started on April 1, 1985 by taking 80% pay cut. A year later, in 1986, he was joined by Yale College and School of Management graduate Dean Takahashi, who soon became Swensen's trusted deputy. In 1985, when Swensen started managing the endowment, it was worth $1 billion; in 2019 it was worth $29.4 billion.As of 2005, the fund has managed annualized returns of 16.1%. He has been called \"Yale's 8 billion dollar man\" for his attainment of nearly $8 billion for the college endowment from 1985 to 2005. According to former Yale President, economistRichard Levin, Swensen's \"contribution\" to Yale is greater than the sum of all the donations made in more than two decades. \"We've just done better,\" Levin says, because of Swensen's \"uncanny ability\" to pick the best outside money managers. Swensen's former staff members, who later became managers of other endowment funds - includingMIT,StanfordandPrinceton- also showed impressive results in multiplying fund wealth.In September 2014, Swensen began to move the Yale endowment away from investment in companies that have a large greenhouse footprint, expressing Yale's preferences in a letter to the endowment's money managers. The letter asked them to consider the effect of their investments on climate change, and to refrain from investing in companies that do not make reasonable efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This method was characterized by Swensen as a more subtle and flexible approach, as opposed to outright divestment.Swensen made headlines on March 5, 2018 for arguing with the undergraduate editor-in-chief of theYale Daily News. Swensen called the editor-in-chief a \"coward\" for deleting an inaccurate sentence and removing a footnote in an op-ed that he submitted to the paper; his column, which he required to be published unedited, responded to a student teach-in that criticized companies allegedly in the Yale portfolio.Unconventional successIn 2005, Swensen wrote a book calledUnconventional Success,which is an investment guide for the individual investor. The general strategy that he presents can be boiled down to the following three main points of advice:The investor should construct a portfolio with money allocated to 6 core asset classes, diversifying among them and biasing toward the equity sections.The investor should rebalance the portfolio on a regular basis (rebalancingback to the original weightings of the asset classes in the portfolio).In the absence of confidence in a market-beating strategy, invest in low-costindex fundsandexchange-traded funds. The investor should be very watchful of costs as some indices are poorly constructed and some fund companies charge excessive fees (or generate large tax liabilities).He slams manymutual fundcompanies for charging excessive fees and not living up to their fiduciary responsibility. He highlights the conflict of interest inherent in the mutual funds, claiming they want high fee, high turnover funds while investors want the opposite.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139281494,"gmtCreate":1621638114618,"gmtModify":1704360751754,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139281494","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574801452193405","authorId":"3574801452193405","name":"Joshberry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f6bdad432493b706eb0d9100fcff99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574801452193405","idStr":"3574801452193405"},"content":"please response","text":"please response","html":"please response"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197623431,"gmtCreate":1621465350723,"gmtModify":1704357891944,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197623431","repostId":"1103552481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103552481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621428667,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103552481?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 20:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103552481","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but inv","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.</p>\n<p>The minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:&nbsp; A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a&nbsp;surprisingly weak jobs report&nbsp;and a&nbsp;stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.</p>\n<p>And unlike&nbsp;last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April.&nbsp;The 10-year yield has&nbsp;dropped to 1.64%&nbsp;from 1.74% on March 31.</p>\n<p>Yet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.</p>\n<p>Here’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:</p>\n<p><b>“Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?</b></p>\n<p>One popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.</p>\n<p>Mizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.</p>\n<p>Yet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:&nbsp; That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.</p>\n<p>“In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”</p>\n<p><b>Taper Timeline</b></p>\n<p>Investors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.</p>\n<p>Most on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases&nbsp;late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.</p>\n<p>So any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.</p>\n<p><b>Labor-Market Outlook</b></p>\n<p>One key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.</p>\n<p>Still, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:&nbsp; How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?</p>\n<p>Before the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.</p>\n<p>Clarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.</p>\n<p>“What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:&nbsp; Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the&nbsp;economic data has been so volatile&nbsp;during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.</p>\n<p>That means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.</p>\n<p>“We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 20:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.\nThe minutes are due out at 2 p.m. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103552481","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.\nThe minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:  A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a surprisingly weak jobs report and a stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.\nAnd unlike last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April. The 10-year yield has dropped to 1.64% from 1.74% on March 31.\nYet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.\nHere’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:\n“Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?\nOne popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.\nMizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.\nYet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:  That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.\n“In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”\nTaper Timeline\nInvestors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.\nMost on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.\nSo any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.\nLabor-Market Outlook\nOne key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.\nStill, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:  How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?\nBefore the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.\nClarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.\n“What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”\nUltimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:  Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the economic data has been so volatile during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.\nThat means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.\n“We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570864790458781","authorId":"3570864790458781","name":"Yeong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93092185d223c6e53fcfd64303836612","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3570864790458781","idStr":"3570864790458781"},"content":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","html":"Like n comment"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343086743,"gmtCreate":1617663430182,"gmtModify":1704701413254,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","text":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343086743","repostId":"1123709980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574204999726623","authorId":"3574204999726623","name":"Ssimsim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a43eabdde1f739ca3b75e3dbfb7f3531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574204999726623","idStr":"3574204999726623"},"content":"Ok . Please help to comment too . thanks","text":"Ok . Please help to comment too . thanks","html":"Ok . Please help to comment too . thanks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181026421,"gmtCreate":1623368184663,"gmtModify":1704201676551,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181026421","repostId":"1184070773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370570764,"gmtCreate":1618616180358,"gmtModify":1704713373535,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please thanks!","text":"Like and comment please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370570764","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175692875?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p>How to trade this?</p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><blockquote>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b></blockquote><p>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574112412563523","authorId":"3574112412563523","name":"JiuCaiR","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bfdcb4c657727d83ee4ad334d024bc6d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574112412563523","idStr":"3574112412563523"},"content":"Good. pls comment too","text":"Good. pls comment too","html":"Good. pls comment too"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379107254,"gmtCreate":1618702552378,"gmtModify":1704714077575,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like please! Thanks!","listText":"Comment and like please! Thanks!","text":"Comment and like please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379107254","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175692875?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p>How to trade this?</p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><blockquote>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b></blockquote><p>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574488501440064","authorId":"3574488501440064","name":"Jon000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31d8b0b435484918436ab24cf32410e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574488501440064","idStr":"3574488501440064"},"content":"Like n reply to comment plS","text":"Like n reply to comment plS","html":"Like n reply to comment plS"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347469537,"gmtCreate":1618523860429,"gmtModify":1704712097133,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like this please thanks!","listText":"Like this please thanks!","text":"Like this please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347469537","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345088581,"gmtCreate":1618265381643,"gmtModify":1704708228267,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please thanks!","text":"Like and comment please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345088581","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063760340,"gmtCreate":1651536580836,"gmtModify":1676534920803,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>Coins","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>Coins","text":"$Gevo(GEVO)$Coins","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75bff762b30cc14b7415cd07f803174e","width":"750","height":"1980"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063760340","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198102472,"gmtCreate":1620943396896,"gmtModify":1704350731829,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please! Thanks!","listText":"Like please! Thanks!","text":"Like please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198102472","repostId":"1116555518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574370931879602","authorId":"3574370931879602","name":"LawrenceHK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e791088ad59aadbb3eca7742f1e73576","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574370931879602","idStr":"3574370931879602"},"content":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","html":"Like and comment"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193351540,"gmtCreate":1620770944880,"gmtModify":1704347969430,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thanks!","listText":"Like please thanks!","text":"Like please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193351540","repostId":"1199341916","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199341916","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620736561,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199341916?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-11 20:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199341916","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market. To wit:. “To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, ","content":"<p><b><i>\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”</i></b>That was a great question I got over the weekend.&nbsp;As a&nbsp;<i>“contrarian”</i>&nbsp;investor, it is usually when&nbsp;<i>“everyone”</i>&nbsp;is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.</p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<b><i>Mark Hulbert noted recently</i></b>,&nbsp;<i>“everyone”</i>&nbsp;is worrying about a<i>&nbsp;“bubble”</i>&nbsp;in the stock market. To wit:</p>\n<p><i>“To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2a152e3037789e73c80d5c89bf4141\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What Is A Bubble?</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career.</i></b>\n <i>The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”</i>\n <b><i>&nbsp;–</i></b>\n <i>Jeremy Grantham</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is the definition of a bubble?&nbsp; According to&nbsp;<i>Investopedia:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A bubble is a market cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.</i>\n <i><b>Typically, what creates a bubble is a surge in asset prices driven by exuberant market behavior.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price</i>\n <i><b>that greatly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Rather, the price does not align with thefundamentals of the asset.</b></i>\n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This definition is suitable for our discussion; there are three components of a&nbsp;<i>“bubble.”</i><i><b>The&nbsp;first two, price and valuation,</b></i>&nbsp;are readily dismissed during the inflation phase.&nbsp;Jeremy Grantham once produced the following chart of 40-years of price bubbles in the markets. During the inflation phase, each was readily dismissed under the guise&nbsp;<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367ada4ec5d5a7c35f8e670e0224fc6b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\"></p>\n<p><b>We are interested in the</b><b><i>“third”</i></b><b>&nbsp;component of</b><b><i>“bubbles,”</i></b><b>&nbsp;which is investor psychology.</b></p>\n<p><b>A Bubble In Psychology</b></p>\n<p>As&nbsp;<i><b>Howard Marks previously noted:</b></i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“It’s the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble. Especially since investors’ emotions invariably swing in the wrong direction at the wrong time.</i>\n <i><b>When things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic. When times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed.”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, it’s difficult for investors to become any more enthusiastic about market returns.&nbsp;<i>(</i><i><b>The RIAPro Fear/Greed Index</b></i><i>&nbsp;compiles measures of equity allocation and market sentiment. The index level is</i><i><b>not a component</b></i><i>&nbsp;of the measure that runs from 0 to 100.</i><i><b>The current reading is 99.9, which is a historical record.)</b></i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137bb4e88e92ca8b22df63ffc61e387c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"334\"></p>\n<p>Such is an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, there is a rising recognition of a&nbsp;<i>“bubble,”</i>&nbsp;but investors are unwilling to reduce “equity risk” for&nbsp;<i>“fear of missing out or F.O.M.O.”</i>Such was a point noted explicitly by Mark:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting a bubble formed.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals. Rather,</i>\n <i><b>they justified it instead in terms of the market’s momentum.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more investors to jump on the bandwagon.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In other words, investors have fully adopted the&nbsp;<i>“Greater Fool Theory.”</i></p>\n<p>Okay, Boomer!</p>\n<p>I know. The discussion of&nbsp;<i>“valuations”</i>&nbsp;is an old-fashioned idea relegated to investors of an older era. Such was evident in the pushback on Charlie Munger’s comments about Bitcoin recently:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>While Munger has never been a bitcoin advocate, his dislike crystalized into something close to hatred.</b></i>\n <i>Looking back over the past 52 weeks, the reason for Munger’s anger becomes apparent with Berkshire rising only 50.5% against bitcoin’s more than 500% gain.”&nbsp;– Coindesk</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In 1999, when Buffett spoke out against&nbsp;<i>“Dot.com”</i>&nbsp;stocks, he got dismissed with a similar ire of&nbsp;<b><i>“investing with Warren Buffett is like driving ‘Dad’s old Pontiac.'”</i></b></p>\n<p>Today, young investors are not interested in the&nbsp;<i>“pearls of wisdom”</i>&nbsp;from experienced investors. Today, they are&nbsp;<i>“out of touch,”</i>&nbsp;with the market’s<i>&nbsp;“new reality.”</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“The big benefit of TikTok is it allows users to dole out and obtain information in short, easily digestible video bites, also called TikToks.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;And that can make unfamiliar, complex topics, such as personal finance and investing, more palatable to a younger audience.That advice runs the gamut, from general information about home buying or retirement savings to specific stock picks and investment ideas.</i>\n <i><b>Rob Shields, a 22-year-old, self-taught options trader who has more than 163,000 followers on TikTok, posts TikToks under the username stock_genius on topics such as popular stocks to watch, how to find good stocks, and basic trading strategies.” –&nbsp;WSJ:</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Of course, the problem with information doled out by 22-year olds is they were 10-year olds during the last</b><i><b>“bear market.”</b></i>Given the lack of experience of investing during such a market, as opposed to Warren Buffett who has survived several, is the eventual destruction of capital.</p>\n<p><b>Plenty Of Analogies</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take Dogecoin, created as a joke with no fundamental value.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;As a&nbsp;recent Wall Street Journal article outlined, the Dogecoin ‘serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.’</i>\n <i><b>Yet investors flock to it, for no other apparent reason than its sharp rise.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, said to the Wall Street Journal, ‘This is absurd. I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.’” – Mark Hulbert</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>That exuberance shows up with professionals as well.<b>&nbsp;As of the end of April, the National Association Of Investment Managers asset allocation was 103%.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c412f208aa700b3f7ccb35d3b7d4e923\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"328\"></p>\n<p>As Dana Lyons noted previously:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Regardless of the investment acumen of any group (we think it is very high among NAAIM members),</i>\n <i><b>once the collective investment opinion or posture becomes too one-sided, it can be an indication that some market action may be necessary to correct such consensus.</b></i>\n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Give Me More</b></p>\n<p>Of course, margin debt, which is the epitome of “<i>speculative appetite,”</i>&nbsp;soared in recent months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11b088ecdf04d5036b4f5bb2d67c13d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"327\"></p>\n<p>As stated,&nbsp;<i>“bubbles are about psychology,”</i>&nbsp;which the annual rate of change of leverage shows.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c963018723e8986826a89a32883e5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"327\"></p>\n<p>Another form of leverage that doesn’t show up in margin debt is ETF’s structured to multiply market returns. These funds have seen record inflows in recent months.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac35f10215d5fcffec35e4e94c952bb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\"></p>\n<p><b>With margin debt reaching levels not seen since the peak of the last cyclical bull market cycle, it should raise some concerns about sustainability.</b>&nbsp;It is NOT the level of leverage that is the problem as leverage increases buying power as markets are rising.&nbsp;<b>The unwinding of this leverage is critically dangerous in the market as the acceleration of</b><b><i>“margin calls”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to a vicious downward spiral.</b></p>\n<p>Importantly, this chart<b>&nbsp;does not meanthat a massive market correction is imminent. I</b>t does suggest that leverage, and speculative risk-taking, are likely much further advanced than currently recognized.</p>\n<p><b>Pushing Extremes</b></p>\n<p>Prices are ultimately affected by physics. Moving averages, trend lines, etc., all exert a gravitational pull on prices in both the short and long term.&nbsp;<b>Like a rubber band, when prices get stretched too far in one direction, they have always eventually</b><b><i>“reverted to the mean”</i></b><b>&nbsp;in the most brutal of manners.</b></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the long-term chart of the S&amp;P 500 broken down by several measures: 2 and 3-standard deviations, valuations, relative strength, and deviations from the 3-year moving average.&nbsp;<b>It is worth noting that both standard deviations and distance from the 3-year moving average are at a record.</b></p>\n<p><b>During the last 120-years, overvaluation and extreme deviations NEVER got resolved by markets going sideways.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc311c3fdd527fd911070f7dd841545\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"590\"></p>\n<p>The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put&nbsp;<i>“fear”</i>&nbsp;into an overly complacent marketplace. Anything from economic disruption, a credit-related crisis, or an unexpected exogenous shock could start the&nbsp;<i>“panic for the exits.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There is more than adequate evidence a<i>&nbsp;“bubble”</i>&nbsp;exists in markets once again. However, as Mark noted in his commentary:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that’s about to break.</i>\n <i><b>But I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can’t happen when there is such widespread concern. In fact, one of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is just that.”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>However, he concludes with the most important statement:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“It’s important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology,</i>\n <i><b>but especially if you’re a retiree or a near-retiree. That’s because, in that case, your investment horizon is far shorter than for those who are younger.</b></i>\n <i>Therefore, you are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Read that statement again.</b></p>\n<p>Millennials are quick to dismiss the&nbsp;<i>“Boomers”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets today for&nbsp;<i>“not getting it.”</i></p>\n<p>No, we get it. We have just been around long enough to know how these things eventually end.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-11 20:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.\nAs...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-everyone-sees-it-it-still-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199341916","content_text":"\"If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?”That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen.\nAs Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market. To wit:\n“To appreciate how widespread current concern about a bubble is, consider the accompanying chart of data from Google Trends. It plots the relative frequency of Google searches based on the term ‘stock market bubble.’ Notice that this frequency has recently jumped to a far-higher level than at any other point over the last five years.”\nWhat Is A Bubble?\n\n“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career.\nThe great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”\n –\nJeremy Grantham\n\nWhat is the definition of a bubble?  According to Investopedia:\n\n“A bubble is a market cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets.\nTypically, what creates a bubble is a surge in asset prices driven by exuberant market behavior.\n During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price\nthat greatly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Rather, the price does not align with thefundamentals of the asset.\n“\n\nThis definition is suitable for our discussion; there are three components of a “bubble.”The first two, price and valuation, are readily dismissed during the inflation phase. Jeremy Grantham once produced the following chart of 40-years of price bubbles in the markets. During the inflation phase, each was readily dismissed under the guise “this time is different.”\n\nWe are interested in the“third” component of“bubbles,” which is investor psychology.\nA Bubble In Psychology\nAs Howard Marks previously noted:\n\n“It’s the swings of psychology that get people into the biggest trouble. Especially since investors’ emotions invariably swing in the wrong direction at the wrong time.\nWhen things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic. When times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed.”\n\nCurrently, it’s difficult for investors to become any more enthusiastic about market returns. (The RIAPro Fear/Greed Index compiles measures of equity allocation and market sentiment. The index level isnot a component of the measure that runs from 0 to 100.The current reading is 99.9, which is a historical record.)\n\nSuch is an interesting juxtaposition. On the one hand, there is a rising recognition of a “bubble,” but investors are unwilling to reduce “equity risk” for “fear of missing out or F.O.M.O.”Such was a point noted explicitly by Mark:\n\n“Rather than responding by taking some chips off the table, however, many began freely admitting a bubble formed.\n They no longer tried to justify higher prices on fundamentals. Rather,\nthey justified it instead in terms of the market’s momentum.\n Prices should keep going up as FOMO seduces more investors to jump on the bandwagon.”\n\nIn other words, investors have fully adopted the “Greater Fool Theory.”\nOkay, Boomer!\nI know. The discussion of “valuations” is an old-fashioned idea relegated to investors of an older era. Such was evident in the pushback on Charlie Munger’s comments about Bitcoin recently:\n\n“\nWhile Munger has never been a bitcoin advocate, his dislike crystalized into something close to hatred.\nLooking back over the past 52 weeks, the reason for Munger’s anger becomes apparent with Berkshire rising only 50.5% against bitcoin’s more than 500% gain.” – Coindesk\n\nIn 1999, when Buffett spoke out against “Dot.com” stocks, he got dismissed with a similar ire of “investing with Warren Buffett is like driving ‘Dad’s old Pontiac.'”\nToday, young investors are not interested in the “pearls of wisdom” from experienced investors. Today, they are “out of touch,” with the market’s “new reality.”\n\n“The big benefit of TikTok is it allows users to dole out and obtain information in short, easily digestible video bites, also called TikToks.\n And that can make unfamiliar, complex topics, such as personal finance and investing, more palatable to a younger audience.That advice runs the gamut, from general information about home buying or retirement savings to specific stock picks and investment ideas.\nRob Shields, a 22-year-old, self-taught options trader who has more than 163,000 followers on TikTok, posts TikToks under the username stock_genius on topics such as popular stocks to watch, how to find good stocks, and basic trading strategies.” – WSJ:\n\nOf course, the problem with information doled out by 22-year olds is they were 10-year olds during the last“bear market.”Given the lack of experience of investing during such a market, as opposed to Warren Buffett who has survived several, is the eventual destruction of capital.\nPlenty Of Analogies\n\n“There is no shortage of current analogies, of course. Take Dogecoin, created as a joke with no fundamental value.\n As a recent Wall Street Journal article outlined, the Dogecoin ‘serves no purpose and, unlike Bitcoin, faces no limit on the number of coins that exist.’\nYet investors flock to it, for no other apparent reason than its sharp rise.\n Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin, said to the Wall Street Journal, ‘This is absurd. I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.’” – Mark Hulbert\n\nThat exuberance shows up with professionals as well. As of the end of April, the National Association Of Investment Managers asset allocation was 103%.\n\nAs Dana Lyons noted previously:\n\n “\n Regardless of the investment acumen of any group (we think it is very high among NAAIM members),\nonce the collective investment opinion or posture becomes too one-sided, it can be an indication that some market action may be necessary to correct such consensus.\n“\n\nGive Me More\nOf course, margin debt, which is the epitome of “speculative appetite,” soared in recent months.\n\nAs stated, “bubbles are about psychology,” which the annual rate of change of leverage shows.\n\nAnother form of leverage that doesn’t show up in margin debt is ETF’s structured to multiply market returns. These funds have seen record inflows in recent months.\n\nWith margin debt reaching levels not seen since the peak of the last cyclical bull market cycle, it should raise some concerns about sustainability. It is NOT the level of leverage that is the problem as leverage increases buying power as markets are rising. The unwinding of this leverage is critically dangerous in the market as the acceleration of“margin calls” leads to a vicious downward spiral.\nImportantly, this chart does not meanthat a massive market correction is imminent. It does suggest that leverage, and speculative risk-taking, are likely much further advanced than currently recognized.\nPushing Extremes\nPrices are ultimately affected by physics. Moving averages, trend lines, etc., all exert a gravitational pull on prices in both the short and long term. Like a rubber band, when prices get stretched too far in one direction, they have always eventually“reverted to the mean” in the most brutal of manners.\nThe chart below shows the long-term chart of the S&P 500 broken down by several measures: 2 and 3-standard deviations, valuations, relative strength, and deviations from the 3-year moving average. It is worth noting that both standard deviations and distance from the 3-year moving average are at a record.\nDuring the last 120-years, overvaluation and extreme deviations NEVER got resolved by markets going sideways.\n\nThe only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace. Anything from economic disruption, a credit-related crisis, or an unexpected exogenous shock could start the “panic for the exits.”\nConclusion\nThere is more than adequate evidence a “bubble” exists in markets once again. However, as Mark noted in his commentary:\n\n‘I have no idea whether the stock market is actually forming a bubble that’s about to break.\nBut I do know that many bulls are fooling themselves when they think a bubble can’t happen when there is such widespread concern. In fact, one of the distinguishing characteristics of a bubble is just that.”\n\nHowever, he concludes with the most important statement:\n\n“It’s important for all of us to be aware of this bubble psychology,\nbut especially if you’re a retiree or a near-retiree. That’s because, in that case, your investment horizon is far shorter than for those who are younger.\nTherefore, you are less able to recover from the deflation of a market bubble.”\n\nRead that statement again.\nMillennials are quick to dismiss the “Boomers” in the financial markets today for “not getting it.”\nNo, we get it. We have just been around long enough to know how these things eventually end.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"content":"Respond please thanks!","text":"Respond please thanks!","html":"Respond please thanks!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349188670,"gmtCreate":1617579885890,"gmtModify":1704700469759,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like comment respond thanks!","listText":"Like comment respond thanks!","text":"Like comment respond thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349188670","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191998262?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196107264,"gmtCreate":1621034031558,"gmtModify":1704352123887,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please thanks!","text":"Like and comment please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196107264","repostId":"2135710626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107258563,"gmtCreate":1620516558652,"gmtModify":1704344425330,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","text":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107258563","repostId":"1106882084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104773454,"gmtCreate":1620430720378,"gmtModify":1704343500596,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104773454","repostId":"1120904578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120904578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620429937,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120904578?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 07:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120904578","media":"Reuters","summary":"The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the","content":"<p>The Dow and S&amp;P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.</p><p>U.S. job growth&nbsp;unexpectedly slowed&nbsp;in April, likely restrained by shortages of workers, the Labor Department report showed.</p><p>The report alleviated some concerns about rising inflation and potentially higher U.S. interest rates, which some investors worry would hurt growth companies with high valuations.</p><p>“Growth names that were taken to the woodshed are getting another chance, because they will be perceived to be less risky in an environment where there is a slower recovery, and that’s really what the jobs data is indicating”, said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.</p><p>Heavily-weighted growth stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp MSFT.O and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc AAPL.O rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, giving the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq their biggest boosts.</p><p>But gains were broad-based, with all major S&amp;P 500 sectors ending in the green and energy SPNY and real estate SPLRCR leading the advance. Energy and materials SPLRCM both hit fresh highs.</p><p>The Dow .DJI rose 229.23 points, or 0.66%, to 34,777.76, the S&amp;P 500 .SPX gained 30.98 points, or 0.74%, to 4,232.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 119.40 points, or 0.88%, to 13,752.24.</p><p>For the week, the Dow rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. The S&amp;P 500 gained 1.2%, its best week since mid-April, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5%.</p><p>“The anticipation and confirmation of (Federal Reserve) policy staying the same and continued economic recovery with vaccines rollout have fueled these all-time highs, but we do believe the volatility is going to be tightened in the short term,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at Axs Investments.</p><p>A raft of upbeat earnings also helped stocks, and S&amp;P 500 earnings are now estimated to have increased 50.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, which would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Payments firm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Inc SQ.N rose 4.2% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, as surging demand for bitcoin fueled a jump in cryptocurrency transactions on its application. (Full Story)</p><p>Streaming device maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku Inc</a> ROKU.O jumped 11.5%following an upbeat revenue outlook, while fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O gained as it laid out steps to improve the safety of its equipment. (Full Story) (Full Story)</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a> Group Inc EXPE.O shares rose 5.2% as analysts raised price targets following the company’s upbeat results.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 164 new 52-week highs and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 164 new highs and 64 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, compared with the 10.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-08 07:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the Nasdaq recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.U.S. job ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MSFT":"微软","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ROKU":"Roku Inc","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","EXPE":"Expedia","AAPL":"苹果","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120904578","content_text":"The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the Nasdaq recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed in April, likely restrained by shortages of workers, the Labor Department report showed.The report alleviated some concerns about rising inflation and potentially higher U.S. interest rates, which some investors worry would hurt growth companies with high valuations.“Growth names that were taken to the woodshed are getting another chance, because they will be perceived to be less risky in an environment where there is a slower recovery, and that’s really what the jobs data is indicating”, said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.Heavily-weighted growth stocks such as Microsoft Corp MSFT.O and Apple Inc AAPL.O rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, giving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq their biggest boosts.But gains were broad-based, with all major S&P 500 sectors ending in the green and energy SPNY and real estate SPLRCR leading the advance. Energy and materials SPLRCM both hit fresh highs.The Dow .DJI rose 229.23 points, or 0.66%, to 34,777.76, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 30.98 points, or 0.74%, to 4,232.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 119.40 points, or 0.88%, to 13,752.24.For the week, the Dow rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, its best week since mid-April, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5%.“The anticipation and confirmation of (Federal Reserve) policy staying the same and continued economic recovery with vaccines rollout have fueled these all-time highs, but we do believe the volatility is going to be tightened in the short term,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at Axs Investments.A raft of upbeat earnings also helped stocks, and S&P 500 earnings are now estimated to have increased 50.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, which would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010, according to Refinitiv data.Payments firm Square Inc SQ.N rose 4.2% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, as surging demand for bitcoin fueled a jump in cryptocurrency transactions on its application. (Full Story)Streaming device maker Roku Inc ROKU.O jumped 11.5%following an upbeat revenue outlook, while fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O gained as it laid out steps to improve the safety of its equipment. (Full Story) (Full Story)Expedia Group Inc EXPE.O shares rose 5.2% as analysts raised price targets following the company’s upbeat results.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 164 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 164 new highs and 64 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, compared with the 10.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"EXPE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582060513966213","idStr":"3582060513966213"},"content":"Good please comment","text":"Good please comment","html":"Good please comment"},{"author":{"id":"3575673707879494","authorId":"3575673707879494","name":"LuCS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2df61ef98e356911cb6f0b530be11d9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575673707879494","idStr":"3575673707879494"},"content":"Pls reapond to my comment thanks","text":"Pls reapond to my comment thanks","html":"Pls reapond to my comment thanks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342978840,"gmtCreate":1618178939980,"gmtModify":1704707062071,"author":{"id":"3579207760920564","authorId":"3579207760920564","name":"Thengz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb87a2ba614bf594d49c299bab92466e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579207760920564","idStr":"3579207760920564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","text":"Like and comment please. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342978840","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572388238861982","authorId":"3572388238861982","name":"MGHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2cbc6e014ed9c700e2d9cd01ae2b08","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572388238861982","idStr":"3572388238861982"},"content":"please comment on this","text":"please comment on this","html":"please comment on this"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}