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Edmond123
2023-03-11
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First Republic, Western Alliance Seek to Calm Contagion Worries From SVB Meltdown
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2022-12-12
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2022-06-19
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如何看美股和美债对A股影响？
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2022-06-19
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2022-06-11
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中信证券：美国“通胀磨顶” 扰乱紧缩预期
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部分香港房地产及物业管理股票在香港暂停交易
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U.S. lenders First Republic Bank and Western Alliance said on Friday their liquidity an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - U.S. lenders <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Western Alliance </a> said on Friday their liquidity and deposits remained strong, aiming to calm investors worried of a spill-over of risks from troubled startup focused-bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">SVB Financial Group </a>.</p><p>Shares of the three banks slumped between 20% and 60% in choppy trading that led to halts and resumptions.</p><p>The disclosures come after banking regulators shut California-based SVB after a failed share sale that triggered worries of a liquidity crisis, hammered bank stocks and rippled through global markets.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank in Kansas on October 23, 2020.</p><p>Western Alliance reported total deposits of $61.5 billion and warned of a moderate decline from these levels by the end of the quarter due to seasonal and monthly activity, but affirmed its full-year deposit growth forecast of 13% to 17%.</p><p>It held $2.5 billion cash on its balance sheet while held-to-maturity securities made up less than 2% of assets with unrecognized loss of $192 million as of Feb. 28.</p><p>Meanwhile, FRC said average account size of consumer deposits are less than $200,000 and business deposits less than $500,000. Technology-related deposits accounted for 4% of total deposits.</p><p>Its investment portfolio is less than 15% of total bank assets and only less than 2% of total bank assets is categorized as available for sale.</p><p>Banks park bonds under either available-for-sale (AFS) or held-to-maturity securities.</p><p>While AFS securities are carried at fair value and unrealized gains and losses are reported against capital, HTM securities are carried at amortized cost and are not required to count changes in value if held until repayment.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>First Republic, Western Alliance Seek to Calm Contagion Worries From SVB Meltdown</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirst Republic, Western Alliance Seek to Calm Contagion Worries From SVB Meltdown\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-11 08:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - U.S. lenders <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Western Alliance </a> said on Friday their liquidity and deposits remained strong, aiming to calm investors worried of a spill-over of risks from troubled startup focused-bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">SVB Financial Group </a>.</p><p>Shares of the three banks slumped between 20% and 60% in choppy trading that led to halts and resumptions.</p><p>The disclosures come after banking regulators shut California-based SVB after a failed share sale that triggered worries of a liquidity crisis, hammered bank stocks and rippled through global markets.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank in Kansas on October 23, 2020.</p><p>Western Alliance reported total deposits of $61.5 billion and warned of a moderate decline from these levels by the end of the quarter due to seasonal and monthly activity, but affirmed its full-year deposit growth forecast of 13% to 17%.</p><p>It held $2.5 billion cash on its balance sheet while held-to-maturity securities made up less than 2% of assets with unrecognized loss of $192 million as of Feb. 28.</p><p>Meanwhile, FRC said average account size of consumer deposits are less than $200,000 and business deposits less than $500,000. Technology-related deposits accounted for 4% of total deposits.</p><p>Its investment portfolio is less than 15% of total bank assets and only less than 2% of total bank assets is categorized as available for sale.</p><p>Banks park bonds under either available-for-sale (AFS) or held-to-maturity securities.</p><p>While AFS securities are carried at fair value and unrealized gains and losses are reported against capital, HTM securities are carried at amortized cost and are not required to count changes in value if held until repayment.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151337023","content_text":"(Reuters) - U.S. lenders First Republic Bank and Western Alliance said on Friday their liquidity and deposits remained strong, aiming to calm investors worried of a spill-over of risks from troubled startup focused-bank SVB Financial Group .Shares of the three banks slumped between 20% and 60% in choppy trading that led to halts and resumptions.The disclosures come after banking regulators shut California-based SVB after a failed share sale that triggered worries of a liquidity crisis, hammered bank stocks and rippled through global markets.Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank in Kansas on October 23, 2020.Western Alliance reported total deposits of $61.5 billion and warned of a moderate decline from these levels by the end of the quarter due to seasonal and monthly activity, but affirmed its full-year deposit growth forecast of 13% to 17%.It held $2.5 billion cash on its balance sheet while held-to-maturity securities made up less than 2% of assets with unrecognized loss of $192 million as of Feb. 28.Meanwhile, FRC said average account size of consumer deposits are less than $200,000 and business deposits less than $500,000. Technology-related deposits accounted for 4% of total deposits.Its investment portfolio is less than 15% of total bank assets and only less than 2% of total bank assets is categorized as available for sale.Banks park bonds under either available-for-sale (AFS) or held-to-maturity securities.While AFS securities are carried at fair value and unrealized gains and losses are reported against capital, HTM securities are carried at amortized cost and are not required to count changes in value if held until repayment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923142137,"gmtCreate":1670814698930,"gmtModify":1676538439101,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920748511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920843677,"gmtCreate":1670468478399,"gmtModify":1676538374940,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920843677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920857207,"gmtCreate":1670468263709,"gmtModify":1676538374859,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967728941","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048208457,"gmtCreate":1656208889879,"gmtModify":1676535784914,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/USAK\">$USA Truck(USAK)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/USAK\">$USA Truck(USAK)$</a>👍","text":"$USA Truck(USAK)$👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048208457","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040327410,"gmtCreate":1655611705230,"gmtModify":1676535671672,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040327410","repostId":"2244848234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2244848234","pubTimestamp":1655603924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244848234?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-19 09:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"如何看美股和美债对A股影响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244848234","media":"格隆汇","summary":"近期美股调整背景下，A股韧性十足","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>摘要</b><b> </b></p><p><b>投资要点</b></p><p><b>回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。</b></p><p><b>近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？</b></p><p><b>1、乱云飞渡仍从容</b></p><p><b>我们认为无论美股、美债还是通胀，对A股影响有限。</b></p><p><b>换言之，当前市场跟1-4月有本质区别，结构比仓位重要，科创板引领新成长蓄势待发，恒生科技修复刚刚开始，把握底部黄金布局窗口。</b></p><p><b>2、如何看美股影响</b></p><p><b>近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。</b>以史为鉴，观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”，可以发现，2000年以来中国经济增长快于美国的时候，也即中美GDP增速差扩张，万得全A往往明显跑赢标普500。</p><p><b>展望后续，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓，中美经济错位将进一步延续，A股有望继续强于美股。</b></p><p><b>3、如何看通胀影响</b></p><p>近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。<b>事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，影响股市的关键是经济走势和产业崛起。</b></p><p>1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，而美股却并未受到明显影响，与此同时，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。</p><p>原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长股走势的关键是产业崛起。彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。</p><p><b>4、如何看美债影响</b></p><p>基于年初美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。<b>然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股表现的影响同样有限。</b></p><p>2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，且大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板收益显著。</p><p>逻辑上，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。</p><p><b>5、三大战略配置链</b></p><p><b>展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。</b>原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。</p><p>因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。</p><p>其一，科创板引领新成长是主战场，产业线索上，半导体关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防关注航空发动机、导弹和信息化等。</p><p>其二，恒生科技转折底，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。</p><p>其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。</p><p><b>风险提示：</b>疫情反复超预期；产业进展低预期。</p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1、乱云飞渡仍从容</h3><p></p><p></p><p><b>回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。</b></p><p><b>展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。</b></p><p><b>因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。</b></p><p>其一，科创板是新成长主战场，产业线索上优选半导体、新能源、国防、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药子领域，如半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。</p><p>其二，恒生科技迎转折底，刚刚开始，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。</p><p>其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。</p><p><b>近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？</b></p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>2、如何看美股影响</h3><p></p><p></p><p><b>近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。</b>也即，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓。</p><p><b>回顾中美经济错位和中美股市走势的相关性，绝大部分时候呈现正相关。</b>观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”关联度，可以发现，2000年以来当中国经济增长快于美国的时候，中美GDP增速差扩张，此时万得全A明显跑赢标普500。唯一不同的阶段出现在2014-2015年，彼时美国经济走强而中国经济走弱，国内货币财政政策大幅宽松，场外资金入市推动A股走出了流动性牛市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6bda2a40da9a508827021cf0b7047fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>典型的中美经济错位、中国股市跑赢于美股的阶段出现在2004年底-2007年三季度、2008年三季度-2009年三季度。</b></p><p><b>2004年底-2007年三季度，国内经济增长显著优于美国，A股表现整体也好于美股。</b>首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP增速震荡上行，而美国GDP增速震荡下行，中美GDP增速差不断扩张。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2004年6月至2006年7月加息了17次，而国内仅仅加息了2次，当时美国为了抑制国内通胀压力货币政策收紧的力度远强于中国。最后，从股市表现来看，受经济回落政策收紧的影响，美股整体呈现震荡走势，小幅上涨；而A股则在经济快速增长的推动下，走出了一轮盈利牛。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2409478fb2d75cce21932be56c964b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2008年三季度-2009年三季度，国内经济领先美国复苏，A股表现整体也好于美股。</b>首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP于2009年Q1触底企稳，而美国GDP于2009年Q2触底企稳，金融危机后中国经济率先开始复苏。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2008年Q3-2009年Q3降息了三次，并进行了第一轮量化宽松。而中国在此期间降息了四次，并推出了“四万亿”财政刺激。整体来看，国内的货币财政的刺激力度并不亚于美国。最后，从股市表现来看，国内经济企稳、政策大力刺激的背景之下，A股率先走出企稳上涨的行情。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d729e823827e4a59dd8311ccef9b2b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>展望未来，中美经济错位将进一步延续，国内股市独立于美股走出上涨行情的可能性较大。</b></p><p><b>国内方面，经济仍处于快速修复的阶段。</b>从最新的经济数据来看，国内5月PMI为49.6，出现明显企稳向上的趋势。从微观活动中也可以窥探出经济逐步向好的迹象：其一，稳增长政策细化到产业，且逐步落地；其二，全国疫情逐渐好转，复工复产加速推进。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb9152b6d97f16432d0e03d5af7cc9d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2274cd3e9d15d8a88968c36ba900f6a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h1></h1><p><b>美国方面，经济衰退迹象进一步显现。</b>密歇根大学公布的数据显示，美国6月消费者信心指数跌至50.2，较5月相比下跌了8.2，低于市场预期。美国全国住宅建筑商协会公布的数据显示，6月份房地产建筑商信心降至10个月的低点。此外，金融市场也在交易美国经济衰退的压力：（1）商品市场，铜金比从5.4左右下降至5以下；（2）债券市场，美债期限利差倒挂频繁出现；（3）股票市场，美股从4月中旬开始快速走低交易衰退预期。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce772fb1833cff3c6ba38d2a9658c44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>3、如何看通胀影响</h3><p></p><p></p><p><b>近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，关键主导因素则是经济走势和产业崛起。</b></p><p><b>近期欧美通胀引起市场关注。</b>5月美国CPI环比上涨1%，同比上涨8.6%，同比涨幅再创1981年12月以来最大值。5月欧元区CPI为8.1%，续创历史新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29bc4f8ef2faec752362669edd0d886\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>事实上，参考美国70年代大滞涨的经验，通胀和利率上行对权益走势影响有限。</b>以史为鉴，1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，但是观察美股的表现并未受到大幅冲击，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。</p><p><b>原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定权益市场趋势的关键是产业崛起。</b>彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0778162ad41f344fbb6b075dccc692c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7777245b9f07a09287e70fc659eb3f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>从风格角度，高通胀环境不一定导致小市值风格走弱。</b>1975年之后，美国通胀再攀高峰，然而从美股表现来看，75年之后小市值风格明显优于中市值和大市值风格。高通胀尽管提高成本压力，对中小企业冲击更明显，但不能忽视产业发展趋势。</p><p>70年代初，由于新兴经济体更低廉的劳动力成本，美国制造业出现外流趋势。制造业占GDP的比重不断下降，而信息业与之形成明显对比，其占GDP的比重呈现明显上升趋势。科技型企业以中小企业居多，尽管受成本端的冲击更为显著，但产业发展大趋势对冲了通胀的压力，带动企业盈利和股价的上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f234d78be7dcc5033dbd9d295af5f899\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>4、如何看美债影响</h3><p><b>基于近期美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股走势影响有限。</b></p><p>2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现，创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板涨幅显著。</p><p><b>逻辑上，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de8200e61b584b0175d2159d63568e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>5、三大战略配置链</h3><p></p><p></p><p><b>其一，科创引领新成长。</b></p><p>结合当前产业背景，如果说2019年至2021年是硬科技投资的1.0时代，那么展望未来3-5年我们认为硬科技投资进入了2.0时代。以半导体、新能源、国防装备、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药为代表的硬科技，在1.0投资时代的特征是选对大赛道，那么在2.0投资时代我们认为核心特征将是选对子赛道。</p><p><b>基于次新股天然的时代感，近三年上市的次新股是2.0时代的主力军，进一步结合科创板的硬科技定位，科创板则是主战场。</b></p><p><b>在产业线索上，半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee15fb0050494d677da95a9796d3860\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>其二，恒生科技转折底。</b></p><p>5月13日我们发布《大浪淘沙始见金：恒生科技迎转折底》提示恒生科技的转折底机会，建议战略关注。</p><p>恒生科技的底层逻辑是三底共振，也即政策底、盈利底、估值底，5月下旬以来在财报催化下，进入底部右侧。</p><p><b>短期节奏上，美股或对港股有所扰动，但正是底部布局的黄金窗口。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6770b7f1ed8879bcd681e13fab693548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb306d814ed773f39387043a04d88ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股分行、出行链、基建和快递等。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/494d377a52dc223a9d33681012724de0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae68357c00b64f09909ad4390bfddae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>6、 风险提示</p><p>1、疫情反复超预期；</p><p>2、产业进展低预期。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如何看美股和美债对A股影响？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如何看美股和美债对A股影响？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-19 09:58 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/533868><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要 投资要点回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？1、乱云飞渡仍从容我们认为无论美股、美债还是通胀，对A股影响有限。换言之，当前市场跟1-4月有本质区别，结构比仓位重要，科创板引领新成长蓄势待发，恒生科技...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/533868\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{"399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/533868","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2244848234","content_text":"摘要 投资要点回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？1、乱云飞渡仍从容我们认为无论美股、美债还是通胀，对A股影响有限。换言之，当前市场跟1-4月有本质区别，结构比仓位重要，科创板引领新成长蓄势待发，恒生科技修复刚刚开始，把握底部黄金布局窗口。2、如何看美股影响近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。以史为鉴，观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”，可以发现，2000年以来中国经济增长快于美国的时候，也即中美GDP增速差扩张，万得全A往往明显跑赢标普500。展望后续，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓，中美经济错位将进一步延续，A股有望继续强于美股。3、如何看通胀影响近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，影响股市的关键是经济走势和产业崛起。1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，而美股却并未受到明显影响，与此同时，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长股走势的关键是产业崛起。彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。4、如何看美债影响基于年初美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股表现的影响同样有限。2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，且大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板收益显著。逻辑上，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。5、三大战略配置链展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。其一，科创板引领新成长是主战场，产业线索上，半导体关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防关注航空发动机、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技转折底，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。风险提示：疫情反复超预期；产业进展低预期。1、乱云飞渡仍从容回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。其一，科创板是新成长主战场，产业线索上优选半导体、新能源、国防、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药子领域，如半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技迎转折底，刚刚开始，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？2、如何看美股影响近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。也即，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓。回顾中美经济错位和中美股市走势的相关性，绝大部分时候呈现正相关。观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”关联度，可以发现，2000年以来当中国经济增长快于美国的时候，中美GDP增速差扩张，此时万得全A明显跑赢标普500。唯一不同的阶段出现在2014-2015年，彼时美国经济走强而中国经济走弱，国内货币财政政策大幅宽松，场外资金入市推动A股走出了流动性牛市。典型的中美经济错位、中国股市跑赢于美股的阶段出现在2004年底-2007年三季度、2008年三季度-2009年三季度。2004年底-2007年三季度，国内经济增长显著优于美国，A股表现整体也好于美股。首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP增速震荡上行，而美国GDP增速震荡下行，中美GDP增速差不断扩张。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2004年6月至2006年7月加息了17次，而国内仅仅加息了2次，当时美国为了抑制国内通胀压力货币政策收紧的力度远强于中国。最后，从股市表现来看，受经济回落政策收紧的影响，美股整体呈现震荡走势，小幅上涨；而A股则在经济快速增长的推动下，走出了一轮盈利牛。2008年三季度-2009年三季度，国内经济领先美国复苏，A股表现整体也好于美股。首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP于2009年Q1触底企稳，而美国GDP于2009年Q2触底企稳，金融危机后中国经济率先开始复苏。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2008年Q3-2009年Q3降息了三次，并进行了第一轮量化宽松。而中国在此期间降息了四次，并推出了“四万亿”财政刺激。整体来看，国内的货币财政的刺激力度并不亚于美国。最后，从股市表现来看，国内经济企稳、政策大力刺激的背景之下，A股率先走出企稳上涨的行情。展望未来，中美经济错位将进一步延续，国内股市独立于美股走出上涨行情的可能性较大。国内方面，经济仍处于快速修复的阶段。从最新的经济数据来看，国内5月PMI为49.6，出现明显企稳向上的趋势。从微观活动中也可以窥探出经济逐步向好的迹象：其一，稳增长政策细化到产业，且逐步落地；其二，全国疫情逐渐好转，复工复产加速推进。美国方面，经济衰退迹象进一步显现。密歇根大学公布的数据显示，美国6月消费者信心指数跌至50.2，较5月相比下跌了8.2，低于市场预期。美国全国住宅建筑商协会公布的数据显示，6月份房地产建筑商信心降至10个月的低点。此外，金融市场也在交易美国经济衰退的压力：（1）商品市场，铜金比从5.4左右下降至5以下；（2）债券市场，美债期限利差倒挂频繁出现；（3）股票市场，美股从4月中旬开始快速走低交易衰退预期。3、如何看通胀影响近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，关键主导因素则是经济走势和产业崛起。近期欧美通胀引起市场关注。5月美国CPI环比上涨1%，同比上涨8.6%，同比涨幅再创1981年12月以来最大值。5月欧元区CPI为8.1%，续创历史新高。事实上，参考美国70年代大滞涨的经验，通胀和利率上行对权益走势影响有限。以史为鉴，1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，但是观察美股的表现并未受到大幅冲击，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定权益市场趋势的关键是产业崛起。彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。从风格角度，高通胀环境不一定导致小市值风格走弱。1975年之后，美国通胀再攀高峰，然而从美股表现来看，75年之后小市值风格明显优于中市值和大市值风格。高通胀尽管提高成本压力，对中小企业冲击更明显，但不能忽视产业发展趋势。70年代初，由于新兴经济体更低廉的劳动力成本，美国制造业出现外流趋势。制造业占GDP的比重不断下降，而信息业与之形成明显对比，其占GDP的比重呈现明显上升趋势。科技型企业以中小企业居多，尽管受成本端的冲击更为显著，但产业发展大趋势对冲了通胀的压力，带动企业盈利和股价的上升。4、如何看美债影响基于近期美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股走势影响有限。2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现，创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板涨幅显著。逻辑上，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。5、三大战略配置链其一，科创引领新成长。结合当前产业背景，如果说2019年至2021年是硬科技投资的1.0时代，那么展望未来3-5年我们认为硬科技投资进入了2.0时代。以半导体、新能源、国防装备、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药为代表的硬科技，在1.0投资时代的特征是选对大赛道，那么在2.0投资时代我们认为核心特征将是选对子赛道。基于次新股天然的时代感，近三年上市的次新股是2.0时代的主力军，进一步结合科创板的硬科技定位，科创板则是主战场。在产业线索上，半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技转折底。5月13日我们发布《大浪淘沙始见金：恒生科技迎转折底》提示恒生科技的转折底机会，建议战略关注。恒生科技的底层逻辑是三底共振，也即政策底、盈利底、估值底，5月下旬以来在财报催化下，进入底部右侧。短期节奏上，美股或对港股有所扰动，但正是底部布局的黄金窗口。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股分行、出行链、基建和快递等。6、 风险提示1、疫情反复超预期；2、产业进展低预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040327262,"gmtCreate":1655611688556,"gmtModify":1676535671664,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040327262","repostId":"1130766759","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056074993,"gmtCreate":1654916214912,"gmtModify":1676535533926,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056074993","repostId":"2242855582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242855582","pubTimestamp":1654915806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242855582?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中信证券：美国“通胀磨顶” 扰乱紧缩预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242855582","media":"智通财经网","summary":"核心观点美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>核心观点</b></p><p><b>美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍将处于磨顶过程。预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。预计10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但上行空间有限；后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。</b></p><p><b>事项</b></p><p>美国2022年5月CPI同比上涨8.6%（预期上涨8.2%，前值上涨8.3%）；季调后环比上涨1.0%（预期上涨0.8%，前值上涨0.3%）；核心CPI同比上涨6.0%（预期上涨5.9%，前值上涨6.2%）；季调后核心CPI环比上涨0.6%（预期上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.6%）。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项同比增速和食品项同比增速均为历史高位。</b>美国5月CPI季调后环比涨幅为1.0%，高于预期，远高于前值的0.3%；同比涨幅由前月的8.3%上升至8.6%，处于1981年12月以来的最高位。核心CPI季调后环比涨幅为0.6%，与前月持平；同比涨幅由前月的6.2%跌至6.0%，略高于预期。按食品、能源与核心CPI三分法看，5月美国CPI能源项同比增速为34.6%，处于2005年9月以来最高位，环比增速从上月的-2.7%上升至3.9%；食品项同比上涨10.1%，环比上涨1.2%，自1981年3月以来同比增速首次超过10%。</p><p><b>能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。</b>从影响CPI关键的分项看，就季调环比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了0.32%的涨幅，位居第一；住宅项贡献了0.19%的涨幅，食品项贡献了0.16%的涨幅，分列二三位。就同比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了2.86%的涨幅，位居第一，住宅项和食品项，分别贡献了1.78%和1.36%的增长率。另外，5月汽油指数上涨4.1%，且其他能源指数同样上涨。</p><p><b>油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍处于磨顶过程。</b>首先，尽管5月国际原油价格未超过3月高点，但从实际影响CPI的汽油价格看，美国5月汽油价格比3月进一步走高，而从截至6月6日的数据看，汽油价格进一步从5月底的4.44美元/加仑升至4.70美元/加仑，预计6月汽油价格可能仍将上行。其次，夏季出行需求将逐步旺盛，在此影响下，新车、二手车、机票公共交通等出行相关的商品和服务价格可能将维持高位或进一步抬升。再次，根据房价领先租金15-16个月的历史关系，疫情后美国房价的阶段性顶部为2021年7月，因此，后续住宅项增速或仍难减缓。综上，6月美国CPI同比增速或仍在8.5%附近的高位，</p><p><b>预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大，当前单次加息75bps的概率或仍然不高。</b>首先，在通胀超预期上行的情况下，美联储或继续在9月议息会议上维持50bps的加息节奏，今年年内不存在暂停加息的可能。其次，尽管通胀位于高位，但美国经济同样较为确定地边际下行，由于大幅加息给经济增长，尤其是经济增长预期带来的冲击较大，但其对于通胀的抑制作用，尤其是对油价、食品价格的抑制作用可能仍需观察。因此，在当前时点，我们认为美联储单次加息75bps的概率可能仍然不高。需要重点关注下周美联储议息会议声明及会后鲍威尔讲话释放的信号及其政策基调。</p><p><b>通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但预计上行空间有限。</b>一方面，通胀创新高，市场对于美联储后续进一步紧缩的预期抬升，但另一方面，出于对政策进一步紧缩的担忧，市场对于美国经济衰退的预期同样有所抬升。这在通胀数据公布后，10年期美债利率大幅波动，全球商品价格走弱，黄金价格走强中有所体现。美股方面，预计后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。美债方面，由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率或将突破3.2%的前高，但由于衰退预期增加，预计上行空间有限，可能也将在通胀预期和衰退预期之间波动。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b>美联储政策紧缩幅度超预期；美国通胀超预期上行或超预期回落。</p><p><b>附录图表</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a39cd6f109ae51835aec74ac218f55\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46062cdc0d5e14aa2db979a9052a4bf1\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1290c86ba4c0197e475c129f9c78cc\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc37bcd4cace9dd01ca14bc2c8701ac\" tg-width=\"1041\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ed1dba29dd65f466da8224db4b04300\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>本文编选自“CS宏观研究”微信公众号，作者：崔嵘，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。</b></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：美国“通胀磨顶” 扰乱紧缩预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：美国“通胀磨顶” 扰乱紧缩预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-11 10:50 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/737323.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍将处于磨顶过程。预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。预计10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/737323.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/737323.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2242855582","content_text":"核心观点美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍将处于磨顶过程。预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。预计10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但上行空间有限；后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。事项美国2022年5月CPI同比上涨8.6%（预期上涨8.2%，前值上涨8.3%）；季调后环比上涨1.0%（预期上涨0.8%，前值上涨0.3%）；核心CPI同比上涨6.0%（预期上涨5.9%，前值上涨6.2%）；季调后核心CPI环比上涨0.6%（预期上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.6%）。正文美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项同比增速和食品项同比增速均为历史高位。美国5月CPI季调后环比涨幅为1.0%，高于预期，远高于前值的0.3%；同比涨幅由前月的8.3%上升至8.6%，处于1981年12月以来的最高位。核心CPI季调后环比涨幅为0.6%，与前月持平；同比涨幅由前月的6.2%跌至6.0%，略高于预期。按食品、能源与核心CPI三分法看，5月美国CPI能源项同比增速为34.6%，处于2005年9月以来最高位，环比增速从上月的-2.7%上升至3.9%；食品项同比上涨10.1%，环比上涨1.2%，自1981年3月以来同比增速首次超过10%。能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。从影响CPI关键的分项看，就季调环比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了0.32%的涨幅，位居第一；住宅项贡献了0.19%的涨幅，食品项贡献了0.16%的涨幅，分列二三位。就同比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了2.86%的涨幅，位居第一，住宅项和食品项，分别贡献了1.78%和1.36%的增长率。另外，5月汽油指数上涨4.1%，且其他能源指数同样上涨。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍处于磨顶过程。首先，尽管5月国际原油价格未超过3月高点，但从实际影响CPI的汽油价格看，美国5月汽油价格比3月进一步走高，而从截至6月6日的数据看，汽油价格进一步从5月底的4.44美元/加仑升至4.70美元/加仑，预计6月汽油价格可能仍将上行。其次，夏季出行需求将逐步旺盛，在此影响下，新车、二手车、机票公共交通等出行相关的商品和服务价格可能将维持高位或进一步抬升。再次，根据房价领先租金15-16个月的历史关系，疫情后美国房价的阶段性顶部为2021年7月，因此，后续住宅项增速或仍难减缓。综上，6月美国CPI同比增速或仍在8.5%附近的高位，预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大，当前单次加息75bps的概率或仍然不高。首先，在通胀超预期上行的情况下，美联储或继续在9月议息会议上维持50bps的加息节奏，今年年内不存在暂停加息的可能。其次，尽管通胀位于高位，但美国经济同样较为确定地边际下行，由于大幅加息给经济增长，尤其是经济增长预期带来的冲击较大，但其对于通胀的抑制作用，尤其是对油价、食品价格的抑制作用可能仍需观察。因此，在当前时点，我们认为美联储单次加息75bps的概率可能仍然不高。需要重点关注下周美联储议息会议声明及会后鲍威尔讲话释放的信号及其政策基调。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但预计上行空间有限。一方面，通胀创新高，市场对于美联储后续进一步紧缩的预期抬升，但另一方面，出于对政策进一步紧缩的担忧，市场对于美国经济衰退的预期同样有所抬升。这在通胀数据公布后，10年期美债利率大幅波动，全球商品价格走弱，黄金价格走强中有所体现。美股方面，预计后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。美债方面，由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率或将突破3.2%的前高，但由于衰退预期增加，预计上行空间有限，可能也将在通胀预期和衰退预期之间波动。风险因素：美联储政策紧缩幅度超预期；美国通胀超预期上行或超预期回落。附录图表本文编选自“CS宏观研究”微信公众号，作者：崔嵘，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013710557,"gmtCreate":1648774894598,"gmtModify":1676534395680,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013710557","repostId":"1157160956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157160956","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648772640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157160956?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 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content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>部分香港房地产及物业管理股票在香港暂停交易</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-01 08:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月1日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">世茂集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01638\">佳兆业集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">中国奥园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03662\">奥园健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">融创中国</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01777\">花样年控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01778\">彩生活</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02608\">阳光100中国</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01107\">当代置业</a>在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69cb99414ad545d3e125459e030ab33d","relate_stocks":{"09983":"建业新生活","BK1148":"建筑与工程","BK1229":"房地产经营公司","09979":"绿城管理控股","01971":"弘阳服务","06958":"正荣服务","BK1542":"内地物业管理股","BK1583":"高瓴概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157160956","content_text":"4月1日讯，世茂集团、佳兆业集团、中国奥园、奥园健康、融创中国、花样年控股、彩生活、阳光100中国、当代置业在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9013710557,"gmtCreate":1648774894598,"gmtModify":1676534395680,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013710557","repostId":"1157160956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157160956","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648772640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157160956?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 08:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"部分香港房地产及物业管理股票在香港暂停交易","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157160956","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日讯，世茂集团、佳兆业集团、中国奥园、奥园健康、融创中国、花样年控股、彩生活、阳光100中国、当代置业在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月1日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">世茂集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01638\">佳兆业集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">中国奥园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03662\">奥园健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">融创中国</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01777\">花样年控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01778\">彩生活</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02608\">阳光100中国</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01107\">当代置业</a>在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>部分香港房地产及物业管理股票在香港暂停交易</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n部分香港房地产及物业管理股票在香港暂停交易\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-01 08:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月1日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">世茂集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01638\">佳兆业集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">中国奥园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03662\">奥园健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">融创中国</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01777\">花样年控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01778\">彩生活</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02608\">阳光100中国</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01107\">当代置业</a>在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69cb99414ad545d3e125459e030ab33d","relate_stocks":{"09983":"建业新生活","BK1148":"建筑与工程","BK1229":"房地产经营公司","09979":"绿城管理控股","01971":"弘阳服务","06958":"正荣服务","BK1542":"内地物业管理股","BK1583":"高瓴概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157160956","content_text":"4月1日讯，世茂集团、佳兆业集团、中国奥园、奥园健康、融创中国、花样年控股、彩生活、阳光100中国、当代置业在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040327410,"gmtCreate":1655611705230,"gmtModify":1676535671672,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040327410","repostId":"2244848234","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949820606,"gmtCreate":1678500814905,"gmtModify":1678500818933,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949820606","repostId":"1151337023","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048208457,"gmtCreate":1656208889879,"gmtModify":1676535784914,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"提醒：因美国联邦假日六月节，6月20日美股休市一日","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130766759","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>尊敬的投资者：</p><p><b>美股将于6月20日（星期一）休市</b>，因为6月19日（星期日）是美国的联邦假日（六月节）。值得一提的是，这一节日相当“年轻”，去年才被合法化，是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来<b>新增的第一个全国法定节日。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>预祝投资顺利</p><p>老虎证券</p><p><b>休市安排</b></p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>6月20日（周一）休市，6月21日（周二）起照常开市。</p><p><b>港股、A股、新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场</b></p><p>照常交易。</p><p><b>背景介绍</b></p><p>2021年6月17日，美国总统拜登签署法令，将每年的6月19日定为全国法定节假日以纪念美国奴隶制的终结，节日名称为“Juneteenth”，该名称取自June（六月）和Nineteenth（十九）的组合。中国官方称这一节日为“六月节”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>拜登与“六月节祖母”Opal Lee</span></p><p>或许正是因为六月节非常“年轻”，去年的这个时候，美国SEC（证券交易委员会）还因为这个节日和美股市场产生了“分歧”：<b>SEC放假，而纽交所和纳斯达克交易所却照常开市。</b>SEC表示：“交易所自行决定联邦假期的运营状态，我们对各主要市场在正常时间内运营表示理解。”纽交所当时回应称，将评估2022年的六月节是否停业过节。</p><p>目前看来这样的“分歧”今年不会重演了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：因美国联邦假日六月节，6月20日美股休市一日</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：因美国联邦假日六月节，6月20日美股休市一日\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-15 10:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>尊敬的投资者：</p><p><b>美股将于6月20日（星期一）休市</b>，因为6月19日（星期日）是美国的联邦假日（六月节）。值得一提的是，这一节日相当“年轻”，去年才被合法化，是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来<b>新增的第一个全国法定节日。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>预祝投资顺利</p><p>老虎证券</p><p><b>休市安排</b></p><p><b>美股</b></p><p>6月20日（周一）休市，6月21日（周二）起照常开市。</p><p><b>港股、A股、新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场</b></p><p>照常交易。</p><p><b>背景介绍</b></p><p>2021年6月17日，美国总统拜登签署法令，将每年的6月19日定为全国法定节假日以纪念美国奴隶制的终结，节日名称为“Juneteenth”，该名称取自June（六月）和Nineteenth（十九）的组合。中国官方称这一节日为“六月节”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>拜登与“六月节祖母”Opal Lee</span></p><p>或许正是因为六月节非常“年轻”，去年的这个时候，美国SEC（证券交易委员会）还因为这个节日和美股市场产生了“分歧”：<b>SEC放假，而纽交所和纳斯达克交易所却照常开市。</b>SEC表示：“交易所自行决定联邦假期的运营状态，我们对各主要市场在正常时间内运营表示理解。”纽交所当时回应称，将评估2022年的六月节是否停业过节。</p><p>目前看来这样的“分歧”今年不会重演了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3beebfa3e0137570abe14d50f470080d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130766759","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：美股将于6月20日（星期一）休市，因为6月19日（星期日）是美国的联邦假日（六月节）。值得一提的是，这一节日相当“年轻”，去年才被合法化，是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。预祝投资顺利老虎证券休市安排美股6月20日（周一）休市，6月21日（周二）起照常开市。港股、A股、新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场照常交易。背景介绍2021年6月17日，美国总统拜登签署法令，将每年的6月19日定为全国法定节假日以纪念美国奴隶制的终结，节日名称为“Juneteenth”，该名称取自June（六月）和Nineteenth（十九）的组合。中国官方称这一节日为“六月节”。拜登与“六月节祖母”Opal Lee或许正是因为六月节非常“年轻”，去年的这个时候，美国SEC（证券交易委员会）还因为这个节日和美股市场产生了“分歧”：SEC放假，而纽交所和纳斯达克交易所却照常开市。SEC表示：“交易所自行决定联邦假期的运营状态，我们对各主要市场在正常时间内运营表示理解。”纽交所当时回应称，将评估2022年的六月节是否停业过节。目前看来这样的“分歧”今年不会重演了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056074993,"gmtCreate":1654916214912,"gmtModify":1676535533926,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056074993","repostId":"2242855582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242855582","pubTimestamp":1654915806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242855582?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中信证券：美国“通胀磨顶” 扰乱紧缩预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242855582","media":"智通财经网","summary":"核心观点美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>核心观点</b></p><p><b>美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍将处于磨顶过程。预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。预计10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但上行空间有限；后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。</b></p><p><b>事项</b></p><p>美国2022年5月CPI同比上涨8.6%（预期上涨8.2%，前值上涨8.3%）；季调后环比上涨1.0%（预期上涨0.8%，前值上涨0.3%）；核心CPI同比上涨6.0%（预期上涨5.9%，前值上涨6.2%）；季调后核心CPI环比上涨0.6%（预期上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.6%）。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项同比增速和食品项同比增速均为历史高位。</b>美国5月CPI季调后环比涨幅为1.0%，高于预期，远高于前值的0.3%；同比涨幅由前月的8.3%上升至8.6%，处于1981年12月以来的最高位。核心CPI季调后环比涨幅为0.6%，与前月持平；同比涨幅由前月的6.2%跌至6.0%，略高于预期。按食品、能源与核心CPI三分法看，5月美国CPI能源项同比增速为34.6%，处于2005年9月以来最高位，环比增速从上月的-2.7%上升至3.9%；食品项同比上涨10.1%，环比上涨1.2%，自1981年3月以来同比增速首次超过10%。</p><p><b>能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。</b>从影响CPI关键的分项看，就季调环比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了0.32%的涨幅，位居第一；住宅项贡献了0.19%的涨幅，食品项贡献了0.16%的涨幅，分列二三位。就同比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了2.86%的涨幅，位居第一，住宅项和食品项，分别贡献了1.78%和1.36%的增长率。另外，5月汽油指数上涨4.1%，且其他能源指数同样上涨。</p><p><b>油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍处于磨顶过程。</b>首先，尽管5月国际原油价格未超过3月高点，但从实际影响CPI的汽油价格看，美国5月汽油价格比3月进一步走高，而从截至6月6日的数据看，汽油价格进一步从5月底的4.44美元/加仑升至4.70美元/加仑，预计6月汽油价格可能仍将上行。其次，夏季出行需求将逐步旺盛，在此影响下，新车、二手车、机票公共交通等出行相关的商品和服务价格可能将维持高位或进一步抬升。再次，根据房价领先租金15-16个月的历史关系，疫情后美国房价的阶段性顶部为2021年7月，因此，后续住宅项增速或仍难减缓。综上，6月美国CPI同比增速或仍在8.5%附近的高位，</p><p><b>预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大，当前单次加息75bps的概率或仍然不高。</b>首先，在通胀超预期上行的情况下，美联储或继续在9月议息会议上维持50bps的加息节奏，今年年内不存在暂停加息的可能。其次，尽管通胀位于高位，但美国经济同样较为确定地边际下行，由于大幅加息给经济增长，尤其是经济增长预期带来的冲击较大，但其对于通胀的抑制作用，尤其是对油价、食品价格的抑制作用可能仍需观察。因此，在当前时点，我们认为美联储单次加息75bps的概率可能仍然不高。需要重点关注下周美联储议息会议声明及会后鲍威尔讲话释放的信号及其政策基调。</p><p><b>通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但预计上行空间有限。</b>一方面，通胀创新高，市场对于美联储后续进一步紧缩的预期抬升，但另一方面，出于对政策进一步紧缩的担忧，市场对于美国经济衰退的预期同样有所抬升。这在通胀数据公布后，10年期美债利率大幅波动，全球商品价格走弱，黄金价格走强中有所体现。美股方面，预计后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。美债方面，由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率或将突破3.2%的前高，但由于衰退预期增加，预计上行空间有限，可能也将在通胀预期和衰退预期之间波动。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b>美联储政策紧缩幅度超预期；美国通胀超预期上行或超预期回落。</p><p><b>附录图表</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a39cd6f109ae51835aec74ac218f55\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46062cdc0d5e14aa2db979a9052a4bf1\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1290c86ba4c0197e475c129f9c78cc\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc37bcd4cace9dd01ca14bc2c8701ac\" tg-width=\"1041\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ed1dba29dd65f466da8224db4b04300\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>本文编选自“CS宏观研究”微信公众号，作者：崔嵘，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。</b></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：美国“通胀磨顶” 扰乱紧缩预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：美国“通胀磨顶” 扰乱紧缩预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-11 10:50 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/737323.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍将处于磨顶过程。预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。预计10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/737323.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/737323.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2242855582","content_text":"核心观点美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍将处于磨顶过程。预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。预计10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但上行空间有限；后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。事项美国2022年5月CPI同比上涨8.6%（预期上涨8.2%，前值上涨8.3%）；季调后环比上涨1.0%（预期上涨0.8%，前值上涨0.3%）；核心CPI同比上涨6.0%（预期上涨5.9%，前值上涨6.2%）；季调后核心CPI环比上涨0.6%（预期上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.6%）。正文美国5月CPI再创新高，能源项同比增速和食品项同比增速均为历史高位。美国5月CPI季调后环比涨幅为1.0%，高于预期，远高于前值的0.3%；同比涨幅由前月的8.3%上升至8.6%，处于1981年12月以来的最高位。核心CPI季调后环比涨幅为0.6%，与前月持平；同比涨幅由前月的6.2%跌至6.0%，略高于预期。按食品、能源与核心CPI三分法看，5月美国CPI能源项同比增速为34.6%，处于2005年9月以来最高位，环比增速从上月的-2.7%上升至3.9%；食品项同比上涨10.1%，环比上涨1.2%，自1981年3月以来同比增速首次超过10%。能源项、住宅项、食品项是美国5月CPI上涨的主要拉动分项。从影响CPI关键的分项看，就季调环比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了0.32%的涨幅，位居第一；住宅项贡献了0.19%的涨幅，食品项贡献了0.16%的涨幅，分列二三位。就同比贡献的增长率而言，能源项贡献了2.86%的涨幅，位居第一，住宅项和食品项，分别贡献了1.78%和1.36%的增长率。另外，5月汽油指数上涨4.1%，且其他能源指数同样上涨。油价和食品价格高企、夏季出行需求激增以及住宅项增速不减可能导致6月美国CPI同比增速仍在8.5%左右的高位，且三季度美国通胀或仍处于磨顶过程。首先，尽管5月国际原油价格未超过3月高点，但从实际影响CPI的汽油价格看，美国5月汽油价格比3月进一步走高，而从截至6月6日的数据看，汽油价格进一步从5月底的4.44美元/加仑升至4.70美元/加仑，预计6月汽油价格可能仍将上行。其次，夏季出行需求将逐步旺盛，在此影响下，新车、二手车、机票公共交通等出行相关的商品和服务价格可能将维持高位或进一步抬升。再次，根据房价领先租金15-16个月的历史关系，疫情后美国房价的阶段性顶部为2021年7月，因此，后续住宅项增速或仍难减缓。综上，6月美国CPI同比增速或仍在8.5%附近的高位，预计美联储9月加息50bps的概率较大，当前单次加息75bps的概率或仍然不高。首先，在通胀超预期上行的情况下，美联储或继续在9月议息会议上维持50bps的加息节奏，今年年内不存在暂停加息的可能。其次，尽管通胀位于高位，但美国经济同样较为确定地边际下行，由于大幅加息给经济增长，尤其是经济增长预期带来的冲击较大，但其对于通胀的抑制作用，尤其是对油价、食品价格的抑制作用可能仍需观察。因此，在当前时点，我们认为美联储单次加息75bps的概率可能仍然不高。需要重点关注下周美联储议息会议声明及会后鲍威尔讲话释放的信号及其政策基调。通胀创新高令市场对于后续美联储紧缩预期升温，同时对远端经济衰退预期也有所提高。由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率可能突破3.2%的前高，但预计上行空间有限。一方面，通胀创新高，市场对于美联储后续进一步紧缩的预期抬升，但另一方面，出于对政策进一步紧缩的担忧，市场对于美国经济衰退的预期同样有所抬升。这在通胀数据公布后，10年期美债利率大幅波动，全球商品价格走弱，黄金价格走强中有所体现。美股方面，预计后续美股市场或将延续大幅波动，较难出现持续反弹。美债方面，由于通胀超出前高，10年期美债利率或将突破3.2%的前高，但由于衰退预期增加，预计上行空间有限，可能也将在通胀预期和衰退预期之间波动。风险因素：美联储政策紧缩幅度超预期；美国通胀超预期上行或超预期回落。附录图表本文编选自“CS宏观研究”微信公众号，作者：崔嵘，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
