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WYWY
2022-03-28
Apple a buy.
Apple: Plan For iPhone Subscriptions Could Be Massive - Here's Why
WYWY
2022-03-28
Today share price will go down?
Tesla Suspends Shanghai Factory Output for Four Days on Covid Curbs -Sources
WYWY
2022-05-20
👍
Looking for the Next Tesla? There Won't Be One
WYWY
2022-06-09
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Buy TSLA Ahead of the Planned Tesla Stock Split? What 3 Pros Say
WYWY
2022-05-24
👍
Tesla Stock Has Fallen Below $700. Why $540 Might Be Next.
WYWY
2022-05-15
👍
@汽车大事记:對標寶馬X5,蔚來ES7申報圖曝光,或50萬元起售
WYWY
2022-07-18
👍
太卷了!券商一哥拆了特斯拉,写了94页报告
WYWY
2022-06-14
👍
@面包财经:【虧損之王】上投摩根爆款基金成“長期投資者噩夢”?成立15年累虧百億元
WYWY
2022-06-14
👍
@薛洪言:市場底部,你在逆向買入嗎?
WYWY
2022-06-03
👍
@口袋贵金属App:【早讀】美元續跌助漲金價,但歐美股市反彈限制漲幅,關注歐美PMI週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。週二(5月24日)亞市盤初,市場普遍波動不大,現貨黃金仍在1850上方徘徊。週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。商品收盤方面,美國COMEX黃金期貨結算價上漲0.3%,報1847.8美元。 美國原油期貨上漲1美分,或0.01%,結算價報每桶110.29美元,而布倫特原油期貨上漲0.87美分,或0.7%,結算價報每桶113.42美元。美股收盤方面,道瓊斯工業指數上漲618.34點,或1.98%,至31880.24點;標普500指數上漲72.39點,或1.86%,至3973.75點;納斯達克指數上漲180.66點,或1.59%,至11535.28點。全球市場主要行情一覽美國股市週一收高,銀行股攀升和市場領頭羊科技股反彈推動市場普漲,此前華爾街股市創下20多年前互聯網泡沫破裂以來持續最長的一輪周線下跌。美國三大股指漲幅在1.6%-2.0%,科技巨頭蘋果和微軟反彈帶來最大提振。對利率敏感的銀行股跳漲5.1%,此前美國最大銀行摩根大通上調了本年度利息收入預測。摩根大通股價急升6.2%。“這感覺更像是一次釋然性上漲,而不是投資者情緒發生根本性變化,”Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁Oliver Pursche表示,“整體上看,投資者感
WYWY
2022-05-31
👍
@不见233:從宏觀數據到反彈的判斷
WYWY
2022-05-31
👍👍
@于见专栏:從“騰訊起訴vivo事件”,看行業那些恩怨情仇
WYWY
2022-05-31
Up
@alexcsb:
$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$
cry
WYWY
2022-05-30
👍
@Bubikhoo:
$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$
up up
WYWY
2022-05-24
👍
@Azat:
$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$
soon
WYWY
2022-05-22
👍
@NK_NRD:
$Novan Inc.(NOVN)$
👍
WYWY
2022-05-08
👍
Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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10:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"太卷了!券商一哥拆了特斯拉,写了94页报告","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148974307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。</blockquote><p>卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......</p><p>继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3,并写了一份94页的研报。</p><p>耗时两个月,中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。</p><p>中信证券称:</p><blockquote>希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析,展现特斯拉作为一家全球头部汽车企业对汽车智能电动化的思考,以期厘清后续产业发展的可能方向,更好地支持相关决策。</blockquote><p>通过拆解,中信证券对特斯拉的E/E架构、三电、热管理、车身等进行了详细深入地分析。</p><p>域控制器架构</p><p>据中信证券,E/E架构由分布式转向域控制结构,软硬件实现解耦,是软件定义汽车的关键,特斯拉的Model3是域控架构的引领者。</p><p><b>1)车身域:前左右三个车身采用位置分区而非功能分区,意在降低布线难度,大量采用HSD替代继电器;</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>前车身域控制器的位置在前舱,这个位置理论上来说遇到的碰撞概率要更高,因此采用铝合金的保护外壳,而左右车身域控制器由于在乘用舱内,遇到外界碰撞的概率较低,保护外壳均采用塑料结构:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e3ec0d88244cf0ba05df76dbf12e5\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2)座舱域:将T-BOX集成到座舱域控制器,同时采用了Intel的A3950芯片,思路更接近游戏平台而非手机;</b></p><p>座舱域是用户体验的重要组成部分,特斯拉的座舱控制平台也在不断进化中。中信证券本次拆解的特斯拉model3 2020款采用的是第二代座舱域控制器(MCU2):</p><blockquote>MCU2由两块电路板构成,一块是主板,另一块是固定在主板上的一块小型无线通信电路板(图中粉色框所示)。这一块通信电路板包含了LTE模组、以太网控制芯片、天线接口等,相当于传统汽车中用于对外无线通信的T-box,此次将其集成在MCU中,能够节约空间和成本。我们本次拆解的2020款model3采用了Telit的LTE模组,在2021款以后特斯拉将无线模组供应商切换成移远通信。</blockquote><blockquote>MCU2的主板采用了双面PCB板,正面主要布局各种网络相关芯片,例如Intel和Marvell的以太网芯片,Telit的LTE模组,TI的视频串行器等。正面的另一个重要作用是提供对外接口,如蓝牙/WiFi/LTE的天线接口、摄像头输入输出接口、音频接口、USB接口、以太网接口等。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e974436a2dc5b19a849251a7c210317d\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote>而MCU2的背面更为重要,其核心是一颗IntelAtomA3950芯片,搭配总计4GB的Micron内存和同样是Micron提供的64GBeMMC存储芯片。此外还有LGInnotek提供的WiFi/蓝牙模块等。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f06009817e03dc2d31a3f14a908f486\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p><b>3)驾驶域:双FSD芯片,NPU在同等面积下相比Orin有更高的性价比,采用Linux操作系统更适配AI大模型;</b></p><p>特斯拉的另一个重要特色就是其智能驾驶,这部分功能是通过其自动驾驶域控制器(AP)来执行的。本部分的核心在于特斯拉自主开发的FSD芯片,其余配置则与当前其他自动驾驶控制器方案没有本质区别:</p><blockquote>在model3所用的HW3.0版本的AP中,配备两颗FSD芯片,每颗配置4个三星2GB内存颗粒,单FSD总计8GB,同时每颗FSD配备一片东芝的32GB闪存以及一颗Spansion的64MBNORflash用于启动。网络方面,AP控制器内部包含Marvell的以太网交换机和物理层收发器,此外还有TI的高速CAN收发器。对于自动驾驶来说,定位也十分重要,因此配备了一个Ublox的GPS定位模块。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9938c812944cab9e51cd6ed7319bc668\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760b93bcd8e51158df569a11580ab6dc\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>为了实现自动驾驶,特斯拉提出了一整套以视觉为基础,以FSD芯片为核心的解决方案:</p><blockquote>其外围传感器主要包含12个超声传感器(Valeo)、8个摄像头(风挡玻璃顶3个前视,B柱2个拍摄侧前方,前翼子板2个后视,车尾1个后视摄像头,以及1个DMS摄像头)、1个毫米波雷达(大陆)。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4836c623d8b2cd73bb02956dcd6b24e3\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote>其最核心的前视三目摄像头包含中间的主摄像头以及两侧的长焦镜头和广角镜头,形成不同视野范围的搭配,三个摄像头用的是相同的安森美图像传感器。</blockquote><blockquote>毫米波雷达放置于车头处车标附近,包含一块电路板和一块天线板。该毫米波雷达内部采用的是一颗Freescale控制芯片以及一颗TI的稳压电源管理芯片。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9d7b28727b0711f5b6eabbf28ff96d\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p><b>4)电控域:Model3首创采用48颗SiC MOSFET替代了84颗IGBT,体积、功耗大幅减小;</b></p><p>据中信证券,Model3为第一款采用全SiC功率模块电机控制器的纯电动汽车,开创SiC应用的先河:</p><blockquote>Model3所用的SiC型号为意法半导体的ST GK026。在相同功率等级下,这款SiC模块采用激光焊接将SiC MOSFET、输入母排和输出三相铜进行连接,封装尺寸也明显小于硅模块,并且开关损耗降低75%。采用SiC模块替代IGBT模块,其系统效率可以提高5%左右,芯片数量及总面积也均有所减少。如果仍采用Model X的IGBT,则需要54-60颗IGBT。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8cf1eba6f099b4490b34c7dfcaee3c0\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>5)动力域:BMS共管理2976节21700电池,强大的软件能力实现每节电池充放电的一致性。</p><p>Model3作为电动车,电能和电池的管理十分重要,而负责管理电池组的<b>BMS</b>是一个高难度产品:</p><blockquote>主控板负责管理所有BMS相关芯片,共设置7组对外接口,包含了对充电控制器(CP)、能量转换系统(PCS)的控制信号,以及到采样板(BMB)的信号,另外还包含专门的电流电压采集信号。电路板上包含高压隔离电源、采样电路等电路模块。元器件方面,有Freescale和TI的单片机,以及运放、参考电压源、隔离器、数据采样芯片等。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b587536f0b9997eb043397e683a0abb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>在BMS的控制下,具体对电池组进行监测的是BMB电路板,对于特斯拉model3而言:</p><blockquote>共有4个电池组,每一组配备一个BMB电路板,并且4个电路板的电路布局各不相同,彼此之间可以很容易地利用电路板上的编号进行区别,并且按照顺序用菊花链连接在一起,在1号板和4号板引出菊花链连接到主控板的P5和P6接口。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95ea719844ddd6929d8848c4bbdd2142\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>线束和连接器</p><p>1)线束:中信证券测算线束单车价值量约2000元,高压线束是新能源汽车的主要增量,Model3为了轻量化开始用铝替代铜,低压数据线在域控化进程下将有所减少;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dbee6fccc6188cc23be8a636c09e9d1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02522a025888fa0b55934800991bc33\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)连接器:电动化带来高压连接器增量,智能化带来高速连接器需求,TE(泰科)是Model3的核心供应商,国产厂商有望取得突破。</p><p>在动力电池—电驱高压线束的连接器上,<b>Model3</b>采用的是<b>TE</b>的<b>HC Stak 25:</b></p><blockquote>其结构和功能与HC Stak 35类似,不同点在于尺寸的大小,可以看到,HC Stak 25比HC Stak 35更小,因此HC Stak 25插座端的端子是20片DEFCON端子组成(HC Stak 35为35片),不同的型号共用相同的连接器端子。连接器端子通过数量堆叠的变化能够快速完成不同型号的组装,这体现了连接器模块化生产带来的成本管控优势。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ce3149504873c7d267762efc6fba53\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>电池:特斯拉代际技术领先,4680和CTC是后续发展方向</p><p>1)电池设计核心理念在于提升比能量:由小模组到大模组再到无模组CTC,电芯尺寸由1865到2170再到4680,核心趋势都是减少电池包中非能量的结构件数量,降低成本减少重量,提升续航里程。</p><p>据中信证券,Model3电池包采用4块大模组,与同期的iD.4 X,宝马iX3的电池包相比,采用大模组技术,集成度更高,内部布局更为整洁,电池包技术目前仍处于领先地位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23dabb7e95eaba19611c9fbd3810f29\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)4680电池的价值及变化:4680通过全极耳、高镍高硅、干电极、CTC的组合,实现了“能量密度高、倍率高、成本低”的不可能三角。随着模组内电池数量增加、快充需求提升,对于电池包的冷却、导热阻燃要求提升,电池包内冷却管数量增加、冷管长度减少,增加灌封、防火泡棉,保障电池包热稳定性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df353f7deb14b1e3481ccc22db2f2a7a\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>三电与热管理:三电集成度不断提高,热管理率先实现全域打通。</p><p>1)三合一提升集成度,双电机实现优势互补:Model 3/Y上驱动电机、电机控制器、变速箱三者合一,集成度相比Model S/X提高,同时“小三电”和电池包集成,结构紧凑成本更低;单电机版本由感应电机向永磁电机演变,双电机版本向前感应电机后永磁电机布置演进,两种电机在高速低速区优势互补。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1406d1dc031a4d940e03c4f6f676f2\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)热管理全域打通,大大提升能量利用效率:热管理上,通过四通阀、八通阀的应用,由各部分独立的回路,向空调、电池系统、动力系统打通的整车热管理升级,整车热源集成,提升系统的能量利用效率。特斯拉的三电与热管理系统在高集成度方面保持领先,其示范作用将引领行业追赶升级与二次创新。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b079e0e13760c45d4172f14f7baa31dd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>汽车车身:轻量化需求铝车身一体压铸成趋势,消费升级天幕玻璃、智能车灯变潮流</p><p>1)车身:轻量化以满足节能及提高续航要求,以铝代钢是最佳选择,并从Model Y开始进行后车身的一体压铸;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824c486f4801101f96cc3ed4c8a775ca\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)车灯:Model3外饰搭配兼具科技感和美感,车灯选用矩阵式LED灯源;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b296677f6ceb659eef22a35c43daf3a\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3)汽车玻璃:Model3天幕引领行业趋势,渗透率有望不断提升;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e952c54e259cb11d491a29a696a968\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4)底盘:采用线控底盘,是高级别自动驾驶必由之路。</p><p>据中信证券,<b>Model 3</b>底盘逐步实现线控化:</p><blockquote>经过对Model 3底盘结构的拆解,我们看到:悬架方面,特斯拉全车型均采用前轮双叉臂式独立悬架搭配后轮多连杆式独立悬架的配置,未配置空气悬架;制动系统方面,特斯拉车系使用最前沿技术,即线控制动系统Ibooster;转向系统方面,Model3仍沿用传统的电动助力转向。</blockquote><blockquote>线控底盘是实现自动驾驶<b>SAEL3</b>的“执行”基石。自动驾驶系统共分为感知、决策、控制和执行四个部分,其中底盘系统属于自动驾驶中的“执行”机构,是最终实现自动驾驶的核心功能模块。L3及L3以上更高级别自动驾驶的实现离不开底盘执行机构的快速响应和精确执行,以达到和上层的感知、决策和控制的高度协同。而底盘系统的升级也意味着其中驱动系统、制动系统和转向系统等功能模块的升级。所以,线控底盘作为更高级别自动驾驶的执行基石,是发展自动驾驶的具体抓手。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28e1239e7886002c8d3f9a3f999c049\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n太卷了!券商一哥拆了特斯拉,写了94页报告\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-18 10:33 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3,并写了一份94页的研报。耗时两个月,中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。中信证券称:希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1148974307","content_text":"没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3,并写了一份94页的研报。耗时两个月,中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。中信证券称:希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析,展现特斯拉作为一家全球头部汽车企业对汽车智能电动化的思考,以期厘清后续产业发展的可能方向,更好地支持相关决策。通过拆解,中信证券对特斯拉的E/E架构、三电、热管理、车身等进行了详细深入地分析。域控制器架构据中信证券,E/E架构由分布式转向域控制结构,软硬件实现解耦,是软件定义汽车的关键,特斯拉的Model3是域控架构的引领者。1)车身域:前左右三个车身采用位置分区而非功能分区,意在降低布线难度,大量采用HSD替代继电器;前车身域控制器的位置在前舱,这个位置理论上来说遇到的碰撞概率要更高,因此采用铝合金的保护外壳,而左右车身域控制器由于在乘用舱内,遇到外界碰撞的概率较低,保护外壳均采用塑料结构:2)座舱域:将T-BOX集成到座舱域控制器,同时采用了Intel的A3950芯片,思路更接近游戏平台而非手机;座舱域是用户体验的重要组成部分,特斯拉的座舱控制平台也在不断进化中。中信证券本次拆解的特斯拉model3 2020款采用的是第二代座舱域控制器(MCU2):MCU2由两块电路板构成,一块是主板,另一块是固定在主板上的一块小型无线通信电路板(图中粉色框所示)。这一块通信电路板包含了LTE模组、以太网控制芯片、天线接口等,相当于传统汽车中用于对外无线通信的T-box,此次将其集成在MCU中,能够节约空间和成本。我们本次拆解的2020款model3采用了Telit的LTE模组,在2021款以后特斯拉将无线模组供应商切换成移远通信。MCU2的主板采用了双面PCB板,正面主要布局各种网络相关芯片,例如Intel和Marvell的以太网芯片,Telit的LTE模组,TI的视频串行器等。正面的另一个重要作用是提供对外接口,如蓝牙/WiFi/LTE的天线接口、摄像头输入输出接口、音频接口、USB接口、以太网接口等。而MCU2的背面更为重要,其核心是一颗IntelAtomA3950芯片,搭配总计4GB的Micron内存和同样是Micron提供的64GBeMMC存储芯片。此外还有LGInnotek提供的WiFi/蓝牙模块等。3)驾驶域:双FSD芯片,NPU在同等面积下相比Orin有更高的性价比,采用Linux操作系统更适配AI大模型;特斯拉的另一个重要特色就是其智能驾驶,这部分功能是通过其自动驾驶域控制器(AP)来执行的。本部分的核心在于特斯拉自主开发的FSD芯片,其余配置则与当前其他自动驾驶控制器方案没有本质区别:在model3所用的HW3.0版本的AP中,配备两颗FSD芯片,每颗配置4个三星2GB内存颗粒,单FSD总计8GB,同时每颗FSD配备一片东芝的32GB闪存以及一颗Spansion的64MBNORflash用于启动。网络方面,AP控制器内部包含Marvell的以太网交换机和物理层收发器,此外还有TI的高速CAN收发器。对于自动驾驶来说,定位也十分重要,因此配备了一个Ublox的GPS定位模块。为了实现自动驾驶,特斯拉提出了一整套以视觉为基础,以FSD芯片为核心的解决方案:其外围传感器主要包含12个超声传感器(Valeo)、8个摄像头(风挡玻璃顶3个前视,B柱2个拍摄侧前方,前翼子板2个后视,车尾1个后视摄像头,以及1个DMS摄像头)、1个毫米波雷达(大陆)。其最核心的前视三目摄像头包含中间的主摄像头以及两侧的长焦镜头和广角镜头,形成不同视野范围的搭配,三个摄像头用的是相同的安森美图像传感器。毫米波雷达放置于车头处车标附近,包含一块电路板和一块天线板。该毫米波雷达内部采用的是一颗Freescale控制芯片以及一颗TI的稳压电源管理芯片。4)电控域:Model3首创采用48颗SiC MOSFET替代了84颗IGBT,体积、功耗大幅减小;据中信证券,Model3为第一款采用全SiC功率模块电机控制器的纯电动汽车,开创SiC应用的先河:Model3所用的SiC型号为意法半导体的ST GK026。在相同功率等级下,这款SiC模块采用激光焊接将SiC MOSFET、输入母排和输出三相铜进行连接,封装尺寸也明显小于硅模块,并且开关损耗降低75%。采用SiC模块替代IGBT模块,其系统效率可以提高5%左右,芯片数量及总面积也均有所减少。如果仍采用Model X的IGBT,则需要54-60颗IGBT。5)动力域:BMS共管理2976节21700电池,强大的软件能力实现每节电池充放电的一致性。Model3作为电动车,电能和电池的管理十分重要,而负责管理电池组的BMS是一个高难度产品:主控板负责管理所有BMS相关芯片,共设置7组对外接口,包含了对充电控制器(CP)、能量转换系统(PCS)的控制信号,以及到采样板(BMB)的信号,另外还包含专门的电流电压采集信号。电路板上包含高压隔离电源、采样电路等电路模块。元器件方面,有Freescale和TI的单片机,以及运放、参考电压源、隔离器、数据采样芯片等。在BMS的控制下,具体对电池组进行监测的是BMB电路板,对于特斯拉model3而言:共有4个电池组,每一组配备一个BMB电路板,并且4个电路板的电路布局各不相同,彼此之间可以很容易地利用电路板上的编号进行区别,并且按照顺序用菊花链连接在一起,在1号板和4号板引出菊花链连接到主控板的P5和P6接口。线束和连接器1)线束:中信证券测算线束单车价值量约2000元,高压线束是新能源汽车的主要增量,Model3为了轻量化开始用铝替代铜,低压数据线在域控化进程下将有所减少;2)连接器:电动化带来高压连接器增量,智能化带来高速连接器需求,TE(泰科)是Model3的核心供应商,国产厂商有望取得突破。在动力电池—电驱高压线束的连接器上,Model3采用的是TE的HC Stak 25:其结构和功能与HC Stak 35类似,不同点在于尺寸的大小,可以看到,HC Stak 25比HC Stak 35更小,因此HC Stak 25插座端的端子是20片DEFCON端子组成(HC Stak 35为35片),不同的型号共用相同的连接器端子。连接器端子通过数量堆叠的变化能够快速完成不同型号的组装,这体现了连接器模块化生产带来的成本管控优势。电池:特斯拉代际技术领先,4680和CTC是后续发展方向1)电池设计核心理念在于提升比能量:由小模组到大模组再到无模组CTC,电芯尺寸由1865到2170再到4680,核心趋势都是减少电池包中非能量的结构件数量,降低成本减少重量,提升续航里程。据中信证券,Model3电池包采用4块大模组,与同期的iD.4 X,宝马iX3的电池包相比,采用大模组技术,集成度更高,内部布局更为整洁,电池包技术目前仍处于领先地位。2)4680电池的价值及变化:4680通过全极耳、高镍高硅、干电极、CTC的组合,实现了“能量密度高、倍率高、成本低”的不可能三角。随着模组内电池数量增加、快充需求提升,对于电池包的冷却、导热阻燃要求提升,电池包内冷却管数量增加、冷管长度减少,增加灌封、防火泡棉,保障电池包热稳定性。三电与热管理:三电集成度不断提高,热管理率先实现全域打通。1)三合一提升集成度,双电机实现优势互补:Model 3/Y上驱动电机、电机控制器、变速箱三者合一,集成度相比Model S/X提高,同时“小三电”和电池包集成,结构紧凑成本更低;单电机版本由感应电机向永磁电机演变,双电机版本向前感应电机后永磁电机布置演进,两种电机在高速低速区优势互补。2)热管理全域打通,大大提升能量利用效率:热管理上,通过四通阀、八通阀的应用,由各部分独立的回路,向空调、电池系统、动力系统打通的整车热管理升级,整车热源集成,提升系统的能量利用效率。特斯拉的三电与热管理系统在高集成度方面保持领先,其示范作用将引领行业追赶升级与二次创新。汽车车身:轻量化需求铝车身一体压铸成趋势,消费升级天幕玻璃、智能车灯变潮流1)车身:轻量化以满足节能及提高续航要求,以铝代钢是最佳选择,并从Model Y开始进行后车身的一体压铸;2)车灯:Model3外饰搭配兼具科技感和美感,车灯选用矩阵式LED灯源;3)汽车玻璃:Model3天幕引领行业趋势,渗透率有望不断提升;4)底盘:采用线控底盘,是高级别自动驾驶必由之路。据中信证券,Model 3底盘逐步实现线控化:经过对Model 3底盘结构的拆解,我们看到:悬架方面,特斯拉全车型均采用前轮双叉臂式独立悬架搭配后轮多连杆式独立悬架的配置,未配置空气悬架;制动系统方面,特斯拉车系使用最前沿技术,即线控制动系统Ibooster;转向系统方面,Model3仍沿用传统的电动助力转向。线控底盘是实现自动驾驶SAEL3的“执行”基石。自动驾驶系统共分为感知、决策、控制和执行四个部分,其中底盘系统属于自动驾驶中的“执行”机构,是最终实现自动驾驶的核心功能模块。L3及L3以上更高级别自动驾驶的实现离不开底盘执行机构的快速响应和精确执行,以达到和上层的感知、决策和控制的高度协同。而底盘系统的升级也意味着其中驱动系统、制动系统和转向系统等功能模块的升级。所以,线控底盘作为更高级别自动驾驶的执行基石,是发展自动驾驶的具体抓手。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052189214,"gmtCreate":1655138561739,"gmtModify":1676535568615,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052189214","repostId":"612134228","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612134228,"gmtCreate":1652225400000,"gmtModify":1676533087312,"author":{"id":"3524105778590481","authorId":"3524105778590481","name":"面包财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840a0ca857820031307544fe7310d6af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105778590481","authorIdStr":"3524105778590481"},"themes":[],"title":"【虧損之王】上投摩根爆款基金成“長期投資者噩夢”?成立15年累虧百億元","htmlText":"作爲當年的爆款基金,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄。然而,成立將近15年,該產品已累計虧損近百億元,最新淨值約爲0.86元,基金規模也縮水超九成。 圖1:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)成立以來單位淨值走勢 研究顯示,除了市場大勢的影響,倉位控制、市場判斷等方面的因素導致了這隻QDII基金出海失敗。然而,接近百億元的虧損並不影響上投摩根從中獲得高額的報酬,自成立以來基金合計收取管理費用超20億元。 證監會發布的《關於加快推進公募基金行業高質量發展的意見》指出,督促銷售機構持續完善內部考覈激勵機制,將銷售保有規模、投資者長期收益納入考覈指標體系。以上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)爲鑑,基金於市場高位之際迅速建倉的投研決策是否勤勉盡責?“重首發、輕持營”的現象未來是否應該改變? 首隻“千億”爆款基金 成立15年累虧近百億元 2007年10月,我國面向海外投資渠道QDII正式獲批,第一批“出海”基金共計4只。其中,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)作爲首隻提出以亞太市場爲投資目標區域的股票型投資基金,曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄,配售比爲25.8%。 然而,在創下發行紀錄之後,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)的業績表現卻不盡人意。隨着2008年金融危機的爆發,基金遭受重創。2008年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)跌破0.4元關口,以0.383元的單位淨值進入“三毛”基金行列。 此後,基金表現雖有所回暖,但受創立時高位建倉因素的影響,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)淨值多年在0.6元附近徘徊,至今依然虧損14.37%。這意味着如果一個投資者2007年發行時申購該基金,持有近15年仍虧損超過一成。 圖2:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)業績表現 截至2021年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)以97.31","listText":"作爲當年的爆款基金,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄。然而,成立將近15年,該產品已累計虧損近百億元,最新淨值約爲0.86元,基金規模也縮水超九成。 圖1:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)成立以來單位淨值走勢 研究顯示,除了市場大勢的影響,倉位控制、市場判斷等方面的因素導致了這隻QDII基金出海失敗。然而,接近百億元的虧損並不影響上投摩根從中獲得高額的報酬,自成立以來基金合計收取管理費用超20億元。 證監會發布的《關於加快推進公募基金行業高質量發展的意見》指出,督促銷售機構持續完善內部考覈激勵機制,將銷售保有規模、投資者長期收益納入考覈指標體系。以上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)爲鑑,基金於市場高位之際迅速建倉的投研決策是否勤勉盡責?“重首發、輕持營”的現象未來是否應該改變? 首隻“千億”爆款基金 成立15年累虧近百億元 2007年10月,我國面向海外投資渠道QDII正式獲批,第一批“出海”基金共計4只。其中,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)作爲首隻提出以亞太市場爲投資目標區域的股票型投資基金,曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄,配售比爲25.8%。 然而,在創下發行紀錄之後,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)的業績表現卻不盡人意。隨着2008年金融危機的爆發,基金遭受重創。2008年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)跌破0.4元關口,以0.383元的單位淨值進入“三毛”基金行列。 此後,基金表現雖有所回暖,但受創立時高位建倉因素的影響,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)淨值多年在0.6元附近徘徊,至今依然虧損14.37%。這意味着如果一個投資者2007年發行時申購該基金,持有近15年仍虧損超過一成。 圖2:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)業績表現 截至2021年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)以97.31","text":"作爲當年的爆款基金,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄。然而,成立將近15年,該產品已累計虧損近百億元,最新淨值約爲0.86元,基金規模也縮水超九成。 圖1:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)成立以來單位淨值走勢 研究顯示,除了市場大勢的影響,倉位控制、市場判斷等方面的因素導致了這隻QDII基金出海失敗。然而,接近百億元的虧損並不影響上投摩根從中獲得高額的報酬,自成立以來基金合計收取管理費用超20億元。 證監會發布的《關於加快推進公募基金行業高質量發展的意見》指出,督促銷售機構持續完善內部考覈激勵機制,將銷售保有規模、投資者長期收益納入考覈指標體系。以上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)爲鑑,基金於市場高位之際迅速建倉的投研決策是否勤勉盡責?“重首發、輕持營”的現象未來是否應該改變? 首隻“千億”爆款基金 成立15年累虧近百億元 2007年10月,我國面向海外投資渠道QDII正式獲批,第一批“出海”基金共計4只。其中,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)作爲首隻提出以亞太市場爲投資目標區域的股票型投資基金,曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄,配售比爲25.8%。 然而,在創下發行紀錄之後,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)的業績表現卻不盡人意。隨着2008年金融危機的爆發,基金遭受重創。2008年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)跌破0.4元關口,以0.383元的單位淨值進入“三毛”基金行列。 此後,基金表現雖有所回暖,但受創立時高位建倉因素的影響,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)淨值多年在0.6元附近徘徊,至今依然虧損14.37%。這意味着如果一個投資者2007年發行時申購該基金,持有近15年仍虧損超過一成。 圖2:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)業績表現 截至2021年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)以97.31","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6a31832a5d4b3cacf4e1da01efab72","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0160d413cbdb4759bd6270b1e7631d2b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34bab374a9e4ffc80860afff66da1dc","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612134228","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052189602,"gmtCreate":1655138518506,"gmtModify":1676535568614,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052189602","repostId":"612137289","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612137289,"gmtCreate":1652227461941,"gmtModify":1676533087350,"author":{"id":"3499753196034567","authorId":"3499753196034567","name":"薛洪言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734f4c3555940b5c07f9212ada2cd51b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499753196034567","authorIdStr":"3499753196034567"},"themes":[],"title":"市場底部,你在逆向買入嗎?","htmlText":"投資中有句名言,“買在無人問津處,賣在人聲鼎沸時”。意思是指,要在市場冷清時買入佈局,當市場熱度較高時賣出離場,買在低點、賣在高點,確保買賣價差的最大化。當前市場已進入底部,冷冷清清,明星基金不再霸佔熱搜,賬戶收益更是從之前的每日秀曬變成不敢觸碰的傷疤,兩市日成交也一度跌破了7000億。在這個無人問津的時候,作爲投資者的你還在逆向買入嗎?不敢逆向,投資者在怕什麼?就當前的市場環境來說,無論是指數板塊還是個股基金,都比過去的一兩年更便宜。面對越來越低的價格,很多投資者之所以不敢下手,背後的心理既有恐懼,也有貪婪。恐懼的一面是擔心買入之後還會下跌,加重賬面浮虧;貪婪的一面則是期待在更低的價格入手,買得更便宜。客觀來說,這種恐懼和貪婪都是合理的,屬人之常情,但站在投資的視角,這兩種心理又都是不理性的表現,是投資進階的障礙和絆腳石。先說第一個擔心,擔心買入之後還會下跌。這種擔心的潛臺詞是,我想買入之後立馬能夠賺錢,至少不能虧錢。事實上,只有銀行存款、貨幣基金、中低風險銀行理財才能滿足投資者的這種需求,無論是股票還是權益性基金(股票型基金、混合型基金),都是高度波動性資產,不可能給投資者提供這樣的保障。換言之,如果擔心會出現賬面浮虧,投資者就不適合股票和基金投資,要麼徹底遠離市場,要麼說服自己放棄這種不切實際的想法。再說第二個期待,期待以更低的價格買入。這種期待的潛臺詞是,我能預判市場未來走勢,我認爲股價尚未見底,還有得跌。這也是一種不切實際的想法,試想,投資者若有這種本事,之前的賬面浮虧哪裏來的?總不能說,虧損之後才具備了預測市場的本事吧。在極端市場中等待更低的價格,屬於典型的誤區。一則,最低的價格只能事後知道,事前沒有人能夠預知,投資者應把底部視作一個區間,而非單一的價格點;二則,一旦市場走過最恐慌階段開始反轉,反轉的速度往往很快,投資者可能無法買到足夠的數量。因此,若總抱着“買","listText":"投資中有句名言,“買在無人問津處,賣在人聲鼎沸時”。意思是指,要在市場冷清時買入佈局,當市場熱度較高時賣出離場,買在低點、賣在高點,確保買賣價差的最大化。當前市場已進入底部,冷冷清清,明星基金不再霸佔熱搜,賬戶收益更是從之前的每日秀曬變成不敢觸碰的傷疤,兩市日成交也一度跌破了7000億。在這個無人問津的時候,作爲投資者的你還在逆向買入嗎?不敢逆向,投資者在怕什麼?就當前的市場環境來說,無論是指數板塊還是個股基金,都比過去的一兩年更便宜。面對越來越低的價格,很多投資者之所以不敢下手,背後的心理既有恐懼,也有貪婪。恐懼的一面是擔心買入之後還會下跌,加重賬面浮虧;貪婪的一面則是期待在更低的價格入手,買得更便宜。客觀來說,這種恐懼和貪婪都是合理的,屬人之常情,但站在投資的視角,這兩種心理又都是不理性的表現,是投資進階的障礙和絆腳石。先說第一個擔心,擔心買入之後還會下跌。這種擔心的潛臺詞是,我想買入之後立馬能夠賺錢,至少不能虧錢。事實上,只有銀行存款、貨幣基金、中低風險銀行理財才能滿足投資者的這種需求,無論是股票還是權益性基金(股票型基金、混合型基金),都是高度波動性資產,不可能給投資者提供這樣的保障。換言之,如果擔心會出現賬面浮虧,投資者就不適合股票和基金投資,要麼徹底遠離市場,要麼說服自己放棄這種不切實際的想法。再說第二個期待,期待以更低的價格買入。這種期待的潛臺詞是,我能預判市場未來走勢,我認爲股價尚未見底,還有得跌。這也是一種不切實際的想法,試想,投資者若有這種本事,之前的賬面浮虧哪裏來的?總不能說,虧損之後才具備了預測市場的本事吧。在極端市場中等待更低的價格,屬於典型的誤區。一則,最低的價格只能事後知道,事前沒有人能夠預知,投資者應把底部視作一個區間,而非單一的價格點;二則,一旦市場走過最恐慌階段開始反轉,反轉的速度往往很快,投資者可能無法買到足夠的數量。因此,若總抱着“買","text":"投資中有句名言,“買在無人問津處,賣在人聲鼎沸時”。意思是指,要在市場冷清時買入佈局,當市場熱度較高時賣出離場,買在低點、賣在高點,確保買賣價差的最大化。當前市場已進入底部,冷冷清清,明星基金不再霸佔熱搜,賬戶收益更是從之前的每日秀曬變成不敢觸碰的傷疤,兩市日成交也一度跌破了7000億。在這個無人問津的時候,作爲投資者的你還在逆向買入嗎?不敢逆向,投資者在怕什麼?就當前的市場環境來說,無論是指數板塊還是個股基金,都比過去的一兩年更便宜。面對越來越低的價格,很多投資者之所以不敢下手,背後的心理既有恐懼,也有貪婪。恐懼的一面是擔心買入之後還會下跌,加重賬面浮虧;貪婪的一面則是期待在更低的價格入手,買得更便宜。客觀來說,這種恐懼和貪婪都是合理的,屬人之常情,但站在投資的視角,這兩種心理又都是不理性的表現,是投資進階的障礙和絆腳石。先說第一個擔心,擔心買入之後還會下跌。這種擔心的潛臺詞是,我想買入之後立馬能夠賺錢,至少不能虧錢。事實上,只有銀行存款、貨幣基金、中低風險銀行理財才能滿足投資者的這種需求,無論是股票還是權益性基金(股票型基金、混合型基金),都是高度波動性資產,不可能給投資者提供這樣的保障。換言之,如果擔心會出現賬面浮虧,投資者就不適合股票和基金投資,要麼徹底遠離市場,要麼說服自己放棄這種不切實際的想法。再說第二個期待,期待以更低的價格買入。這種期待的潛臺詞是,我能預判市場未來走勢,我認爲股價尚未見底,還有得跌。這也是一種不切實際的想法,試想,投資者若有這種本事,之前的賬面浮虧哪裏來的?總不能說,虧損之後才具備了預測市場的本事吧。在極端市場中等待更低的價格,屬於典型的誤區。一則,最低的價格只能事後知道,事前沒有人能夠預知,投資者應把底部視作一個區間,而非單一的價格點;二則,一旦市場走過最恐慌階段開始反轉,反轉的速度往往很快,投資者可能無法買到足夠的數量。因此,若總抱着“買","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3769941d4a937c6004b15fdfa43aa120","width":"1000","height":"667"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612137289","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058094440,"gmtCreate":1654749362680,"gmtModify":1676535504506,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058094440","repostId":"1196933904","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196933904","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654746267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196933904?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-09 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy TSLA Ahead of the Planned Tesla Stock Split? What 3 Pros Say","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196933904","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla(TSLA) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.Company shareh","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.</li><li>Company shareholders will vote on the motion to split TSLA stock on August 4.</li><li>Analysts remain cautiously bullish as investors wonder if now is the time to buy.</li></ul><p>Stock split summer is underway and <b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>) has successfully executed one already. Now investor focus has shifted to the next high-growth company that is planning to split its stock.<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) shareholders will vote on August 4 but there is little reason to believe the motion will fail. Investors remember the first TSLA stock split of 2020 and the impressive returns it netted for them. As the catalyst draws near, investors are considering an important question: Should I buy more TSLA stock before the split?</p><p>As TSLA stock has slipped recently, it has seen several analyst downgrades. Names such as Dan Ives and Alexander Potter have downgraded their TSLA price targets, citing production concerns and lack of trust in Musk’s leadership. But as the Tesla stock split nears, plenty of investors remain generally bullish on the stock. Shares have traded well today and are close to pulling back into the green for the week after a steep decline on June 2 when Elon Musk expressed a negative feeling about the economy.</p><p>Musk is feeling “super bad” about the economic landscape. However, most of Wall Street still regards TSLA stock as a “buy.” Analysts are regarding Tesla with caution but still see the current dip as a buying opportunity.</p><p>Let’s take a look at what industry experts are saying as the Tesla stock split approaches.</p><p><b>TSLA Stock Split: Analysts Weigh In</b></p><ul><li>Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho Securities recently upgraded his rating for TSLA and set a bullish price target of $1,300. He praised the company for successfully executing despite market turbulence. As he outlined in a note to clients:</li></ul><blockquote>We believe TSLA has potentially ~1.4M of its 1.5M C22E target units that could be produced at just Fremont and primarily Shanghai as the major hub. But with Shanghai residents/logistics still mostly in lockdown, we believe Giga-Shanghai reopening will likely be slower than expected, with headwinds in intra- and inter-city logistics a nearterm JunQ drag.</blockquote><ul><li>New Street’s Pierre Ferragu also recently reiterated a “buy” rating. His price target of $1,580 is currently the highest set for TSLA stock on <i>Tipranks</i>. However, the analyst accounts for the economic and industry headwinds facing Tesla in the current quarter.Per<i>Barron’s</i>: “Ferragu, for his part, projects 251,000 deliveries, down from about 310,000 in the first quarter. The second quarter will break a streak of eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries.” Ferragu also believes Tesla is likely to only break even in terms of free cash flow (FCF). And he has a far more downbeat view than the $1.3 billion consensus FCF figure. Yet he remains a bull on TSLA stock, rating it at “buy,” with a price target of $1,580.</li><li>Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs recently lowered his TSLA stock price target from$1,200 to $1,000.But he still sees it as a “buy.” While the firm is lowered its global forecast for the auto industry, <i>Pulse 2.0</i> reports that “Delaney is expecting volumes to continue rising with the latest search data showing strong electric vehicle demand — which is largely being driven by soaring gas prices.”</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy TSLA Ahead of the Planned Tesla Stock Split? What 3 Pros Say</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy TSLA Ahead of the Planned Tesla Stock Split? What 3 Pros Say\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-09 11:44 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/06/buy-tsla-ahead-of-the-planned-tesla-stock-split-what-3-pros-say/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla(TSLA) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.Company shareholders will vote on the motion to split TSLA stock on August 4.Analysts remain cautiously bullish as...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/buy-tsla-ahead-of-the-planned-tesla-stock-split-what-3-pros-say/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/buy-tsla-ahead-of-the-planned-tesla-stock-split-what-3-pros-say/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196933904","content_text":"Tesla(TSLA) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.Company shareholders will vote on the motion to split TSLA stock on August 4.Analysts remain cautiously bullish as investors wonder if now is the time to buy.Stock split summer is underway and Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) has successfully executed one already. Now investor focus has shifted to the next high-growth company that is planning to split its stock.Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) shareholders will vote on August 4 but there is little reason to believe the motion will fail. Investors remember the first TSLA stock split of 2020 and the impressive returns it netted for them. As the catalyst draws near, investors are considering an important question: Should I buy more TSLA stock before the split?As TSLA stock has slipped recently, it has seen several analyst downgrades. Names such as Dan Ives and Alexander Potter have downgraded their TSLA price targets, citing production concerns and lack of trust in Musk’s leadership. But as the Tesla stock split nears, plenty of investors remain generally bullish on the stock. Shares have traded well today and are close to pulling back into the green for the week after a steep decline on June 2 when Elon Musk expressed a negative feeling about the economy.Musk is feeling “super bad” about the economic landscape. However, most of Wall Street still regards TSLA stock as a “buy.” Analysts are regarding Tesla with caution but still see the current dip as a buying opportunity.Let’s take a look at what industry experts are saying as the Tesla stock split approaches.TSLA Stock Split: Analysts Weigh InVijay Rakesh of Mizuho Securities recently upgraded his rating for TSLA and set a bullish price target of $1,300. He praised the company for successfully executing despite market turbulence. As he outlined in a note to clients:We believe TSLA has potentially ~1.4M of its 1.5M C22E target units that could be produced at just Fremont and primarily Shanghai as the major hub. But with Shanghai residents/logistics still mostly in lockdown, we believe Giga-Shanghai reopening will likely be slower than expected, with headwinds in intra- and inter-city logistics a nearterm JunQ drag.New Street’s Pierre Ferragu also recently reiterated a “buy” rating. His price target of $1,580 is currently the highest set for TSLA stock on Tipranks. However, the analyst accounts for the economic and industry headwinds facing Tesla in the current quarter.PerBarron’s: “Ferragu, for his part, projects 251,000 deliveries, down from about 310,000 in the first quarter. The second quarter will break a streak of eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries.” Ferragu also believes Tesla is likely to only break even in terms of free cash flow (FCF). And he has a far more downbeat view than the $1.3 billion consensus FCF figure. Yet he remains a bull on TSLA stock, rating it at “buy,” with a price target of $1,580.Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs recently lowered his TSLA stock price target from$1,200 to $1,000.But he still sees it as a “buy.” While the firm is lowered its global forecast for the auto industry, Pulse 2.0 reports that “Delaney is expecting volumes to continue rising with the latest search data showing strong electric vehicle demand — which is largely being driven by soaring gas prices.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059060792,"gmtCreate":1654264708016,"gmtModify":1676535421978,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059060792","repostId":"614928598","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614928598,"gmtCreate":1653354846914,"gmtModify":1676533140112,"author":{"id":"4112492151355280","authorId":"4112492151355280","name":"口袋贵金属App","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c7bd7aa26b68c9d897db3fd51cf329","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4112492151355280","authorIdStr":"4112492151355280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"【早讀】美元續跌助漲金價,但歐美股市反彈限制漲幅,關注歐美PMI週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。週二(5月24日)亞市盤初,市場普遍波動不大,現貨黃金仍在1850上方徘徊。週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。商品收盤方面,美國COMEX黃金期貨結算價上漲0.3%,報1847.8美元。 美國原油期貨上漲1美分,或0.01%,結算價報每桶110.29美元,而布倫特原油期貨上漲0.87美分,或0.7%,結算價報每桶113.42美元。美股收盤方面,道瓊斯工業指數上漲618.34點,或1.98%,至31880.24點;標普500指數上漲72.39點,或1.86%,至3973.75點;納斯達克指數上漲180.66點,或1.59%,至11535.28點。全球市場主要行情一覽美國股市週一收高,銀行股攀升和市場領頭羊科技股反彈推動市場普漲,此前華爾街股市創下20多年前互聯網泡沫破裂以來持續最長的一輪周線下跌。美國三大股指漲幅在1.6%-2.0%,科技巨頭蘋果和微軟反彈帶來最大提振。對利率敏感的銀行股跳漲5.1%,此前美國最大銀行摩根大通上調了本年度利息收入預測。摩根大通股價急升6.2%。“這感覺更像是一次釋然性上漲,而不是投資者情緒發生根本性變化,”Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁Oliver Pursche表示,“整體上看,投資者感","listText":"【早讀】美元續跌助漲金價,但歐美股市反彈限制漲幅,關注歐美PMI週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。週二(5月24日)亞市盤初,市場普遍波動不大,現貨黃金仍在1850上方徘徊。週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。商品收盤方面,美國COMEX黃金期貨結算價上漲0.3%,報1847.8美元。 美國原油期貨上漲1美分,或0.01%,結算價報每桶110.29美元,而布倫特原油期貨上漲0.87美分,或0.7%,結算價報每桶113.42美元。美股收盤方面,道瓊斯工業指數上漲618.34點,或1.98%,至31880.24點;標普500指數上漲72.39點,或1.86%,至3973.75點;納斯達克指數上漲180.66點,或1.59%,至11535.28點。全球市場主要行情一覽美國股市週一收高,銀行股攀升和市場領頭羊科技股反彈推動市場普漲,此前華爾街股市創下20多年前互聯網泡沫破裂以來持續最長的一輪周線下跌。美國三大股指漲幅在1.6%-2.0%,科技巨頭蘋果和微軟反彈帶來最大提振。對利率敏感的銀行股跳漲5.1%,此前美國最大銀行摩根大通上調了本年度利息收入預測。摩根大通股價急升6.2%。“這感覺更像是一次釋然性上漲,而不是投資者情緒發生根本性變化,”Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁Oliver Pursche表示,“整體上看,投資者感","text":"【早讀】美元續跌助漲金價,但歐美股市反彈限制漲幅,關注歐美PMI週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。週二(5月24日)亞市盤初,市場普遍波動不大,現貨黃金仍在1850上方徘徊。週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。商品收盤方面,美國COMEX黃金期貨結算價上漲0.3%,報1847.8美元。 美國原油期貨上漲1美分,或0.01%,結算價報每桶110.29美元,而布倫特原油期貨上漲0.87美分,或0.7%,結算價報每桶113.42美元。美股收盤方面,道瓊斯工業指數上漲618.34點,或1.98%,至31880.24點;標普500指數上漲72.39點,或1.86%,至3973.75點;納斯達克指數上漲180.66點,或1.59%,至11535.28點。全球市場主要行情一覽美國股市週一收高,銀行股攀升和市場領頭羊科技股反彈推動市場普漲,此前華爾街股市創下20多年前互聯網泡沫破裂以來持續最長的一輪周線下跌。美國三大股指漲幅在1.6%-2.0%,科技巨頭蘋果和微軟反彈帶來最大提振。對利率敏感的銀行股跳漲5.1%,此前美國最大銀行摩根大通上調了本年度利息收入預測。摩根大通股價急升6.2%。“這感覺更像是一次釋然性上漲,而不是投資者情緒發生根本性變化,”Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁Oliver Pursche表示,“整體上看,投資者感","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614928598","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027375418,"gmtCreate":1653981304434,"gmtModify":1676535373570,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027375418","repostId":"614124990","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614124990,"gmtCreate":1653452299310,"gmtModify":1676533146270,"author":{"id":"3536726801818865","authorId":"3536726801818865","name":"不见233","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d7f4ce18e7e23ee069600167f858f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536726801818865","authorIdStr":"3536726801818865"},"themes":[],"title":"從宏觀數據到反彈的判斷","htmlText":"前幾天有讀者問道,還能看漲做多嗎?話說都3100+點,還在這裏侃3000+,是不是被市場打臉了?等等,筆者心平氣和道,侃3000+的時候見《大A進入結構性市場》,當然還有更早的節日帖&星球內容來證實,不過回過頭的3000+,押注的是中報是全年低點···儘管在筆者看來僅僅有少部分行業能put中報全年低點做預期,大部分行業仍然不配,誠然這裏是個拍腦袋的置信度問題,更多的需要高頻數據來證實or證僞。但不妨拋開結果導向的行情,單單從投資方法論-宏觀分析方法而言,只研究一波宏觀趨勢&週期,能否延續,強度如何,觀察微觀市場水滴石穿,日積月累地再度改變或逆轉原有趨勢···嚴謹陳述:宏觀經濟分析方法,只研究趨勢&週期的強度&它們預期時限,深入挖掘其背後邏輯基礎與判斷條件。至於猜點位與博反彈等,則是策略環節的內容。該方法只負責提高把握(術語叫置信度),想要“精準”,下海口預言,宏觀分析方法怕是搶不了算命的飯碗···其次宏觀經濟研究方法,不怕市場打臉,因爲每一次誤判(預期差+系統標準差的問題),都會帶來宏觀研究方法的迭代,去尋找哪些忽視的變量,與低估的風險,從而進一步完善自身體系···回到反彈行情的本身···那四個標準逐步出現了邊際的修復,一是上海復工預期漸行漸近;二是逆週期調節的實打實出現,儘管量不多,但信號管夠;三是海外FED-FOMC的超鷹派,疊加美帝增長預期見頂,拐點信號疊加長短端美債收益率扁平化,緩和了外部環境壓力但單純地將逆週期調節政策萬能,就把政策兜底,必然有效地維穩預期,根據該預期博弈出市場底(這裏隱含了一個前提條件就是市場博弈的是預期差,而非預期,就是買預期賣事實,若不認同這一點,下圖和本段內容都可以跳過)而實際上,忽視了一個大前提有效檢驗,就是有效政策的基本邏輯及其實施過程。回到一般高效市場的邏輯,或者我們常說的貨幣政策&財政政策順利","listText":"前幾天有讀者問道,還能看漲做多嗎?話說都3100+點,還在這裏侃3000+,是不是被市場打臉了?等等,筆者心平氣和道,侃3000+的時候見《大A進入結構性市場》,當然還有更早的節日帖&星球內容來證實,不過回過頭的3000+,押注的是中報是全年低點···儘管在筆者看來僅僅有少部分行業能put中報全年低點做預期,大部分行業仍然不配,誠然這裏是個拍腦袋的置信度問題,更多的需要高頻數據來證實or證僞。但不妨拋開結果導向的行情,單單從投資方法論-宏觀分析方法而言,只研究一波宏觀趨勢&週期,能否延續,強度如何,觀察微觀市場水滴石穿,日積月累地再度改變或逆轉原有趨勢···嚴謹陳述:宏觀經濟分析方法,只研究趨勢&週期的強度&它們預期時限,深入挖掘其背後邏輯基礎與判斷條件。至於猜點位與博反彈等,則是策略環節的內容。該方法只負責提高把握(術語叫置信度),想要“精準”,下海口預言,宏觀分析方法怕是搶不了算命的飯碗···其次宏觀經濟研究方法,不怕市場打臉,因爲每一次誤判(預期差+系統標準差的問題),都會帶來宏觀研究方法的迭代,去尋找哪些忽視的變量,與低估的風險,從而進一步完善自身體系···回到反彈行情的本身···那四個標準逐步出現了邊際的修復,一是上海復工預期漸行漸近;二是逆週期調節的實打實出現,儘管量不多,但信號管夠;三是海外FED-FOMC的超鷹派,疊加美帝增長預期見頂,拐點信號疊加長短端美債收益率扁平化,緩和了外部環境壓力但單純地將逆週期調節政策萬能,就把政策兜底,必然有效地維穩預期,根據該預期博弈出市場底(這裏隱含了一個前提條件就是市場博弈的是預期差,而非預期,就是買預期賣事實,若不認同這一點,下圖和本段內容都可以跳過)而實際上,忽視了一個大前提有效檢驗,就是有效政策的基本邏輯及其實施過程。回到一般高效市場的邏輯,或者我們常說的貨幣政策&財政政策順利","text":"前幾天有讀者問道,還能看漲做多嗎?話說都3100+點,還在這裏侃3000+,是不是被市場打臉了?等等,筆者心平氣和道,侃3000+的時候見《大A進入結構性市場》,當然還有更早的節日帖&星球內容來證實,不過回過頭的3000+,押注的是中報是全年低點···儘管在筆者看來僅僅有少部分行業能put中報全年低點做預期,大部分行業仍然不配,誠然這裏是個拍腦袋的置信度問題,更多的需要高頻數據來證實or證僞。但不妨拋開結果導向的行情,單單從投資方法論-宏觀分析方法而言,只研究一波宏觀趨勢&週期,能否延續,強度如何,觀察微觀市場水滴石穿,日積月累地再度改變或逆轉原有趨勢···嚴謹陳述:宏觀經濟分析方法,只研究趨勢&週期的強度&它們預期時限,深入挖掘其背後邏輯基礎與判斷條件。至於猜點位與博反彈等,則是策略環節的內容。該方法只負責提高把握(術語叫置信度),想要“精準”,下海口預言,宏觀分析方法怕是搶不了算命的飯碗···其次宏觀經濟研究方法,不怕市場打臉,因爲每一次誤判(預期差+系統標準差的問題),都會帶來宏觀研究方法的迭代,去尋找哪些忽視的變量,與低估的風險,從而進一步完善自身體系···回到反彈行情的本身···那四個標準逐步出現了邊際的修復,一是上海復工預期漸行漸近;二是逆週期調節的實打實出現,儘管量不多,但信號管夠;三是海外FED-FOMC的超鷹派,疊加美帝增長預期見頂,拐點信號疊加長短端美債收益率扁平化,緩和了外部環境壓力但單純地將逆週期調節政策萬能,就把政策兜底,必然有效地維穩預期,根據該預期博弈出市場底(這裏隱含了一個前提條件就是市場博弈的是預期差,而非預期,就是買預期賣事實,若不認同這一點,下圖和本段內容都可以跳過)而實際上,忽視了一個大前提有效檢驗,就是有效政策的基本邏輯及其實施過程。回到一般高效市場的邏輯,或者我們常說的貨幣政策&財政政策順利","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75852f881474603c798ab39c22b031e2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d759e12f184316f335abca6d9a1a0d3a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/045a6b7a2954d3c4b3f8bbc0af321f9e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614124990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027375592,"gmtCreate":1653981290516,"gmtModify":1676535373563,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027375592","repostId":"614124890","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":61412489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| 于斌出品 | 潮起網「於見專欄」手機廠商與軟件開發廠商的關係一直都是相輔相成、相得益彰的存在。硬件配置爲軟件的運行提供平臺,軟件爲硬件提供更多可能,併爲其構建更豐富的生態圈。但近期騰訊卻因應用寶一事,與vivo卻撕破了臉。騰訊作爲國內互聯網行業的先驅者,它的業務幾乎遍佈所有領域;而反觀vivo,主打手機通訊設備,已然有成爲國內手機品牌領頭羊的風采。但如今這兩家行業巨擘公然撕破臉,竟是因爲一個在騰訊業務板塊中看似無痛關的手機應用軟件“應用寶”,其中的緣由,值得我們深思。應用寶,騰訊生態圈的重要一環應用寶是騰訊專爲安卓手機用戶傾力打造的應用獲取平臺,在外行人看來,它似乎僅僅只是一個有着海量應用的下載工具,附帶能協助管理手機、帶來一些額外功能的軟件罷了。但對於騰訊而言,它是一個巨大的生態輸出端口,藉助應用寶,騰訊能創造更多的可能。 應用寶作爲一個應用開放平臺,它能吸引數百萬應用開發者,並藉此打造出更豐富的軟件生態圈。與此同時,應用寶還能巧妙地記錄每一位用戶的偏好與使用習慣,讓數據不再只是一堆冰冷的數字,轉身成爲了每個應用設計者未來開發方向的明燈。而近年來隨着相關政策的頒佈、推行,應用寶在用戶數據收集方面也面臨種種困難,因此在2021年,騰訊便宣佈進行新一輪組織架構和人事調整:在原有的騰訊平臺與內容事業羣的架構下,成立“在線視頻BU”部門。該部門由騰訊視頻、微視、應用寶整合而成,繼續深耕視頻賽道。應用寶作爲一個應用市場,理論上不應屬於這個範疇。可它之所以劃分到了這一賽道中,自然有騰訊的道理。無論是騰訊視頻還是微視、應用寶,近幾年的市場份額都在被打壓。影視行業迎來寒冬、超前點播頻繁引來爭議,都讓騰訊視頻深陷增長困局;而微視更是長期處在一個不溫不火的狀態,哪怕騰訊燒錢燒得風生水起,也無濟於事。應用寶就更是如此。在手機廠商出廠即配置應用市場後,第三方服務平臺就面臨着毀滅性打擊。","listText":"編輯 | 于斌出品 | 潮起網「於見專欄」手機廠商與軟件開發廠商的關係一直都是相輔相成、相得益彰的存在。硬件配置爲軟件的運行提供平臺,軟件爲硬件提供更多可能,併爲其構建更豐富的生態圈。但近期騰訊卻因應用寶一事,與vivo卻撕破了臉。騰訊作爲國內互聯網行業的先驅者,它的業務幾乎遍佈所有領域;而反觀vivo,主打手機通訊設備,已然有成爲國內手機品牌領頭羊的風采。但如今這兩家行業巨擘公然撕破臉,竟是因爲一個在騰訊業務板塊中看似無痛關的手機應用軟件“應用寶”,其中的緣由,值得我們深思。應用寶,騰訊生態圈的重要一環應用寶是騰訊專爲安卓手機用戶傾力打造的應用獲取平臺,在外行人看來,它似乎僅僅只是一個有着海量應用的下載工具,附帶能協助管理手機、帶來一些額外功能的軟件罷了。但對於騰訊而言,它是一個巨大的生態輸出端口,藉助應用寶,騰訊能創造更多的可能。 應用寶作爲一個應用開放平臺,它能吸引數百萬應用開發者,並藉此打造出更豐富的軟件生態圈。與此同時,應用寶還能巧妙地記錄每一位用戶的偏好與使用習慣,讓數據不再只是一堆冰冷的數字,轉身成爲了每個應用設計者未來開發方向的明燈。而近年來隨着相關政策的頒佈、推行,應用寶在用戶數據收集方面也面臨種種困難,因此在2021年,騰訊便宣佈進行新一輪組織架構和人事調整:在原有的騰訊平臺與內容事業羣的架構下,成立“在線視頻BU”部門。該部門由騰訊視頻、微視、應用寶整合而成,繼續深耕視頻賽道。應用寶作爲一個應用市場,理論上不應屬於這個範疇。可它之所以劃分到了這一賽道中,自然有騰訊的道理。無論是騰訊視頻還是微視、應用寶,近幾年的市場份額都在被打壓。影視行業迎來寒冬、超前點播頻繁引來爭議,都讓騰訊視頻深陷增長困局;而微視更是長期處在一個不溫不火的狀態,哪怕騰訊燒錢燒得風生水起,也無濟於事。應用寶就更是如此。在手機廠商出廠即配置應用市場後,第三方服務平臺就面臨着毀滅性打擊。","text":"編輯 | 于斌出品 | 潮起網「於見專欄」手機廠商與軟件開發廠商的關係一直都是相輔相成、相得益彰的存在。硬件配置爲軟件的運行提供平臺,軟件爲硬件提供更多可能,併爲其構建更豐富的生態圈。但近期騰訊卻因應用寶一事,與vivo卻撕破了臉。騰訊作爲國內互聯網行業的先驅者,它的業務幾乎遍佈所有領域;而反觀vivo,主打手機通訊設備,已然有成爲國內手機品牌領頭羊的風采。但如今這兩家行業巨擘公然撕破臉,竟是因爲一個在騰訊業務板塊中看似無痛關的手機應用軟件“應用寶”,其中的緣由,值得我們深思。應用寶,騰訊生態圈的重要一環應用寶是騰訊專爲安卓手機用戶傾力打造的應用獲取平臺,在外行人看來,它似乎僅僅只是一個有着海量應用的下載工具,附帶能協助管理手機、帶來一些額外功能的軟件罷了。但對於騰訊而言,它是一個巨大的生態輸出端口,藉助應用寶,騰訊能創造更多的可能。 應用寶作爲一個應用開放平臺,它能吸引數百萬應用開發者,並藉此打造出更豐富的軟件生態圈。與此同時,應用寶還能巧妙地記錄每一位用戶的偏好與使用習慣,讓數據不再只是一堆冰冷的數字,轉身成爲了每個應用設計者未來開發方向的明燈。而近年來隨着相關政策的頒佈、推行,應用寶在用戶數據收集方面也面臨種種困難,因此在2021年,騰訊便宣佈進行新一輪組織架構和人事調整:在原有的騰訊平臺與內容事業羣的架構下,成立“在線視頻BU”部門。該部門由騰訊視頻、微視、應用寶整合而成,繼續深耕視頻賽道。應用寶作爲一個應用市場,理論上不應屬於這個範疇。可它之所以劃分到了這一賽道中,自然有騰訊的道理。無論是騰訊視頻還是微視、應用寶,近幾年的市場份額都在被打壓。影視行業迎來寒冬、超前點播頻繁引來爭議,都讓騰訊視頻深陷增長困局;而微視更是長期處在一個不溫不火的狀態,哪怕騰訊燒錢燒得風生水起,也無濟於事。應用寶就更是如此。在手機廠商出廠即配置應用市場後,第三方服務平臺就面臨着毀滅性打擊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614124890","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027372639,"gmtCreate":1653980968421,"gmtModify":1676535373547,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027372639","repostId":"9027047837","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9027047837,"gmtCreate":1653955726829,"gmtModify":1676535367803,"author":{"id":"3586915072418371","authorId":"3586915072418371","name":"alexcsb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02b98b9a53bdc70b2b8955a1bb7db4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586915072418371","authorIdStr":"3586915072418371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Has Fallen Below $700. Why $540 Might Be Next.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133893720","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundament","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundamental investors might want to note.</p><p>Coming into Monday trading, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) shares are off about 38% since the end of March. The S&P 500 is down about 14% over that span. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 20%.</p><p>Pretty much everything has gone wrong for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors in the past few weeks. The company’s most productive plant in Shanghai was shut and is now operating at reduced capacity because of Covid-19 lockdowns in China. Reuters reported Monday that adding more employees to increase production is being pushed out a few days.</p><p>The delay might be why Tesla stock is down in early trading Monday. A documentary on Hulu produced by the New York Times about Tesla’s driver assistance features probably isn’t helping either. The documentary gives the impression Tesla’s system isn’t as safe as other systems. An accident from 2016 is featured prominently. Tesla’s system was exonerated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in that incident. Tesla, for its part, produces quarterly safety reports that indicate Teslas are some of the safest vehicles on the roads, and says its driver assistance features required driver supervision 100% of the time.</p><p>Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment about Shanghai production or the documentary.</p><p>Tesla stock has fallen 0.5% at 11 a.m. Monday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively, to start at week.</p><p>Then there is the market selloff and CEO Elon Musk’s potential purchase of Twitter (TWTR), which has been a distraction for investors and led to Musk selling a large block of Tesla stock to help finance his deal.</p><p>Inflation in hurting too. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, for instance, downgraded General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) stock, and cut his Tesla price target in mid-May, after coming to the conclusion that the prices for battery materials, such as lithium, would be elevated for years to come.</p><p>All the bad news has left Tesla stock trading about 28% below its 50-day moving average and 27% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average, at about $922 a share is still higher than the 200-day average of about $913.</p><p>The crossing of moving averages is one sign traders look for. The 50 going below the 200 is a bad sign. A few more days of trading like recent returns and investors will have to deal with that along with everything else.</p><p>Tesla “has confirmed an intermediate-term breakdown below support defined by the January low,” Fairlead Strategies managing director Katie Stockton tells <i>Barron’s</i>. Stockton holds a CMT, or chartered market technician designation.</p><p>The January low was about $792. Tesla stock closed below that in mid-May. “The breakdown gives the chart the look of a “double-top” formation, and our long-term gauges suggest the downtrend may keep hold through the summer months,” adds Stockton.</p><p>A double-top is, essentially, an “M” in the stock chart. Tesla stock hit $1,200 early in the year and almost $1,150 in April. Then it started dropping, which is a bearish sign to technical traders.</p><p>Stockton says support for the stock looks to be in the $540 range. That is down another 19%. Whether or not shares ever get there is dependent on a number of things, including Shanghai production, earnings and, of course, whatever the market does.</p><p>Fundamentals rule the day in the long run, but charts tell investors a lot about what is going on fundamentally—and what is going on with investor sentiment.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Has Fallen Below $700. Why $540 Might Be Next.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Has Fallen Below $700. Why $540 Might Be Next.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 23:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-below-700-investors-musk-51653314565?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundamental investors might want to note.Coming into Monday trading, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) shares are off ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-below-700-investors-musk-51653314565?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-below-700-investors-musk-51653314565?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133893720","content_text":"Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundamental investors might want to note.Coming into Monday trading, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) shares are off about 38% since the end of March. The S&P 500 is down about 14% over that span. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 20%.Pretty much everything has gone wrong for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors in the past few weeks. The company’s most productive plant in Shanghai was shut and is now operating at reduced capacity because of Covid-19 lockdowns in China. Reuters reported Monday that adding more employees to increase production is being pushed out a few days.The delay might be why Tesla stock is down in early trading Monday. A documentary on Hulu produced by the New York Times about Tesla’s driver assistance features probably isn’t helping either. The documentary gives the impression Tesla’s system isn’t as safe as other systems. An accident from 2016 is featured prominently. Tesla’s system was exonerated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in that incident. Tesla, for its part, produces quarterly safety reports that indicate Teslas are some of the safest vehicles on the roads, and says its driver assistance features required driver supervision 100% of the time.Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment about Shanghai production or the documentary.Tesla stock has fallen 0.5% at 11 a.m. Monday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively, to start at week.Then there is the market selloff and CEO Elon Musk’s potential purchase of Twitter (TWTR), which has been a distraction for investors and led to Musk selling a large block of Tesla stock to help finance his deal.Inflation in hurting too. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, for instance, downgraded General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) stock, and cut his Tesla price target in mid-May, after coming to the conclusion that the prices for battery materials, such as lithium, would be elevated for years to come.All the bad news has left Tesla stock trading about 28% below its 50-day moving average and 27% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average, at about $922 a share is still higher than the 200-day average of about $913.The crossing of moving averages is one sign traders look for. The 50 going below the 200 is a bad sign. A few more days of trading like recent returns and investors will have to deal with that along with everything else.Tesla “has confirmed an intermediate-term breakdown below support defined by the January low,” Fairlead Strategies managing director Katie Stockton tells Barron’s. Stockton holds a CMT, or chartered market technician designation.The January low was about $792. Tesla stock closed below that in mid-May. “The breakdown gives the chart the look of a “double-top” formation, and our long-term gauges suggest the downtrend may keep hold through the summer months,” adds Stockton.A double-top is, essentially, an “M” in the stock chart. Tesla stock hit $1,200 early in the year and almost $1,150 in April. Then it started dropping, which is a bearish sign to technical traders.Stockton says support for the stock looks to be in the $540 range. That is down another 19%. Whether or not shares ever get there is dependent on a number of things, including Shanghai production, earnings and, of course, whatever the market does.Fundamentals rule the day in the long run, but charts tell investors a lot about what is going on fundamentally—and what is going on with investor sentiment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028979445,"gmtCreate":1653157119587,"gmtModify":1676535231770,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028979445","repostId":"9021116218","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9021116218,"gmtCreate":1653012075434,"gmtModify":1676535208014,"author":{"id":"3577316234948871","authorId":"3577316234948871","name":"NK_NRD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030657ff6d730261b1cb8e20daa29f10","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577316234948871","authorIdStr":"3577316234948871"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NOVN\">$Novan Inc.(NOVN)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NOVN\">$Novan Inc.(NOVN)$</a>👍","text":"$Novan Inc.(NOVN)$👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb2a215de9a7abec8cc3bd1bf03ede70","width":"1125","height":"3250"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021116218","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021264351,"gmtCreate":1653060896673,"gmtModify":1676535216918,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021264351","repostId":"2236012743","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236012743","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653056497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236012743?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 22:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Looking for the Next Tesla? There Won't Be One","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236012743","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"At least not in electric vehicles.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla</b> has taken the market by storm in just a few short years. The electric-vehicle (EV) stock is up nearly 2,000% in the last few years as the company went from a cash-burning niche player to the leader in the biggest transition in automobiles in a century.</p><p>EVs are going mainstream, and Tesla is the reason why, but the stock isn't just up on hype. The automaker has delivered both strong revenue growth and profitability. In Tesla's first quarter, revenue jumped 81% to $18.8 billion, and operating income rose more than six times to $3.6 billion. Operating margin ramped up to 19.2%, well ahead of any other major automaker.</p><p>Tesla's success has sparked a boom in electric-vehicle stocks, including traditional automakers like <b>GM </b>and <b>Ford</b>, which are pivoting to EVs. In fact, there's no shortage of EV start-ups that have been dubbed the "next Tesla," including <b>Rivian</b>, <b>Lucid</b>, <b>Nikola</b>, <b>Nio</b>, <b>BYD</b> and Polestar, which is soon to go public through a SPAC merger with <b>Gores Guggenheim</b>.</p><p>While there will almost certainly be other successful electric-vehicle companies, there won't be another EV stock with eye-popping returns like Tesla. Here's why.</p><h2>Tesla is the disruptor</h2><p>Tesla went from a market cap of around $50 billion to north of $1 trillion in just about two years because it successfully disrupted a massive industry. The company is nearly 20 years old now and has been public since 2010, but it wasn't until 2020 that it reached a tipping point where profitability was assured and the market was convinced that electric vehicles were the future of the automobile industry.</p><p>Tesla stock was able to gain 2,000% in a short period of time because the market gave long odds to its success. In fact, in 2018 and 2019, many of the headlines on Tesla focused on its cash burn rate and its chances of going bankrupt. Today, it's a much different story, and the unlikeliness if its success, at least in the market's eyes, is as much of a reason for the stock's monster returns as is the success of the business itself. Though hype played a role in the stock's jump, at this point the valuation is well-supported by the fundamentals as the stock is trading at a forward P/E of 60 with an expected 60% revenue growth this year.</p><p>But now that Tesla has disrupted the auto industry, it can't be disrupted again, or at least not in the same way. Rivals like Rivian, Lucid and the other Tesla wannabes don't have anything to disrupt electric vehicles because they're already going mainstream. All they have to do is follow the path that Tesla has paved for them and enjoy the sky-high EV valuations that Tesla's success has created for the industry. While there's room for improvement in any product, the magic moment of proof-of-concept in EV's has already happened, thanks to Tesla, and that can't be repeated.</p><p>There's a reason why many of the most successful stocks of the 21st century were disruptors. These are stocks like <b>Amazon </b>in e-commerce and cloud computing, <b>Netflix </b>in video entertainment, and <b>Apple </b>in telephony. It's very hard to disrupt an entrenched industry, and the market is generally skeptical of would-be disruptors until they've proven themselves. Like Tesla, Amazon and Netflix were unprofitable for much of their histories, which increased the market's odds against them, helping them deliver huge returns in the long run.</p><p>Going from a start-up to successfully disrupting a massive industry will usually result in fantastic returns, but the market is also skeptical of disruptors because most of them fail.</p><h2>The Tesla effect</h2><p>As stocks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most important differences between Tesla and its EV challengers is its valuation. Tesla's success distorted the market for EV stocks, and there's an enormous gap between challengers like Rivian and Lucid, compared to Tesla when it had a similar market cap.</p><p>For instance, Tesla finished 2018 at a market cap of $57 billion. It had $21 billion in revenue and delivered 245,000 vehicles that year. Though it lost money for the year, it made a $414 million operating profit in the fourth quarter.</p><p>By comparison, Rivian's market cap briefly topped $150 billion shortly after its Initial Public Offering (IPO) last November, even though it had only begun selling vehicles two months earlier. Similarly, Nikola's market cap was $30 billion at one point without having sold a vehicle, and Lucid flirted with a $100 billion market value late last year, even though it only began selling cars last fall.</p><p>In other words, these stocks were priced for perfection in what now looks like clear signs of market exuberance. Take a look at how these stocks have fared in the last few months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb9523b25c92fb74bfbcc59e865b68a8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>LCID data by YCharts.</p><p>While Tesla is down over the last six months, tracking with other growth stocks, the rest of the EV sector has come crashing down and could still fall further. Unlike Tesla a few years ago, these EV companies face intense competition in electric vehicles, including against traditional automakers, and many of the start-ups are unproven, since they only recently brought their products to market. By contrast, Tesla has been selling electric cars since 2008.</p><p>With the level of competition in EVs now, it's unrealistic to expect there to be another trillion-dollar EV company, and it won't be easy for Tesla to maintain its valuation, either.</p><h2>How to find the next Tesla</h2><p>The next Tesla won't be in EVs. It won't be in an industry that's already been disrupted. Instead, it will be a company that went public for a small market cap and is challenging incumbents in an industry with a large addressable market.</p><p>Most investors will be skeptical of its success, and it will probably be losing money, despite an impressive growth rate. In other words, it will have a number of the hallmarks of Tesla, but operate in a different industry and sell a different product.</p><p>Finding the next Tesla won't be easy, but if you're looking in the electric-vehicle sector, you're looking in the wrong place.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking for the Next Tesla? There Won't Be One</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking for the Next Tesla? There Won't Be One\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-20 22:21 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/looking-for-the-next-tesla-there-wont-be-one/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla has taken the market by storm in just a few short years. The electric-vehicle (EV) stock is up nearly 2,000% in the last few years as the company went from a cash-burning niche player to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/looking-for-the-next-tesla-there-wont-be-one/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/looking-for-the-next-tesla-there-wont-be-one/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236012743","content_text":"Tesla has taken the market by storm in just a few short years. The electric-vehicle (EV) stock is up nearly 2,000% in the last few years as the company went from a cash-burning niche player to the leader in the biggest transition in automobiles in a century.EVs are going mainstream, and Tesla is the reason why, but the stock isn't just up on hype. The automaker has delivered both strong revenue growth and profitability. In Tesla's first quarter, revenue jumped 81% to $18.8 billion, and operating income rose more than six times to $3.6 billion. Operating margin ramped up to 19.2%, well ahead of any other major automaker.Tesla's success has sparked a boom in electric-vehicle stocks, including traditional automakers like GM and Ford, which are pivoting to EVs. In fact, there's no shortage of EV start-ups that have been dubbed the \"next Tesla,\" including Rivian, Lucid, Nikola, Nio, BYD and Polestar, which is soon to go public through a SPAC merger with Gores Guggenheim.While there will almost certainly be other successful electric-vehicle companies, there won't be another EV stock with eye-popping returns like Tesla. Here's why.Tesla is the disruptorTesla went from a market cap of around $50 billion to north of $1 trillion in just about two years because it successfully disrupted a massive industry. The company is nearly 20 years old now and has been public since 2010, but it wasn't until 2020 that it reached a tipping point where profitability was assured and the market was convinced that electric vehicles were the future of the automobile industry.Tesla stock was able to gain 2,000% in a short period of time because the market gave long odds to its success. In fact, in 2018 and 2019, many of the headlines on Tesla focused on its cash burn rate and its chances of going bankrupt. Today, it's a much different story, and the unlikeliness if its success, at least in the market's eyes, is as much of a reason for the stock's monster returns as is the success of the business itself. Though hype played a role in the stock's jump, at this point the valuation is well-supported by the fundamentals as the stock is trading at a forward P/E of 60 with an expected 60% revenue growth this year.But now that Tesla has disrupted the auto industry, it can't be disrupted again, or at least not in the same way. Rivals like Rivian, Lucid and the other Tesla wannabes don't have anything to disrupt electric vehicles because they're already going mainstream. All they have to do is follow the path that Tesla has paved for them and enjoy the sky-high EV valuations that Tesla's success has created for the industry. While there's room for improvement in any product, the magic moment of proof-of-concept in EV's has already happened, thanks to Tesla, and that can't be repeated.There's a reason why many of the most successful stocks of the 21st century were disruptors. These are stocks like Amazon in e-commerce and cloud computing, Netflix in video entertainment, and Apple in telephony. It's very hard to disrupt an entrenched industry, and the market is generally skeptical of would-be disruptors until they've proven themselves. Like Tesla, Amazon and Netflix were unprofitable for much of their histories, which increased the market's odds against them, helping them deliver huge returns in the long run.Going from a start-up to successfully disrupting a massive industry will usually result in fantastic returns, but the market is also skeptical of disruptors because most of them fail.The Tesla effectAs stocks, one of the most important differences between Tesla and its EV challengers is its valuation. Tesla's success distorted the market for EV stocks, and there's an enormous gap between challengers like Rivian and Lucid, compared to Tesla when it had a similar market cap.For instance, Tesla finished 2018 at a market cap of $57 billion. It had $21 billion in revenue and delivered 245,000 vehicles that year. Though it lost money for the year, it made a $414 million operating profit in the fourth quarter.By comparison, Rivian's market cap briefly topped $150 billion shortly after its Initial Public Offering (IPO) last November, even though it had only begun selling vehicles two months earlier. Similarly, Nikola's market cap was $30 billion at one point without having sold a vehicle, and Lucid flirted with a $100 billion market value late last year, even though it only began selling cars last fall.In other words, these stocks were priced for perfection in what now looks like clear signs of market exuberance. Take a look at how these stocks have fared in the last few months.LCID data by YCharts.While Tesla is down over the last six months, tracking with other growth stocks, the rest of the EV sector has come crashing down and could still fall further. Unlike Tesla a few years ago, these EV companies face intense competition in electric vehicles, including against traditional automakers, and many of the start-ups are unproven, since they only recently brought their products to market. By contrast, Tesla has been selling electric cars since 2008.With the level of competition in EVs now, it's unrealistic to expect there to be another trillion-dollar EV company, and it won't be easy for Tesla to maintain its valuation, either.How to find the next TeslaThe next Tesla won't be in EVs. It won't be in an industry that's already been disrupted. Instead, it will be a company that went public for a small market cap and is challenging incumbents in an industry with a large addressable market.Most investors will be skeptical of its success, and it will probably be losing money, despite an impressive growth rate. In other words, it will have a number of the hallmarks of Tesla, but operate in a different industry and sell a different product.Finding the next Tesla won't be easy, but if you're looking in the electric-vehicle sector, you're looking in the wrong place.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020906052,"gmtCreate":1652554495777,"gmtModify":1676535119168,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020906052","repostId":"612550160","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612550160,"gmtCreate":1652421722350,"gmtModify":1676533100050,"author":{"id":"3570520143164987","authorId":"3570520143164987","name":"汽车大事记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c2ea1d1a7d131cd882c3b8b3e7d557c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570520143164987","authorIdStr":"3570520143164987"},"themes":[],"title":"對標寶馬X5,蔚來ES7申報圖曝光,或50萬元起售","htmlText":"5月13日,工信部發布了蔚來ES7的申報信息。新車定位中大型5座SUV,基於NT2.0技術平臺打造而來,並有望在今年年內交付,售價或將臨近50萬元。外觀方面,新車採用了蔚來家族最新的 X-Bar 設計語言,前臉封閉式進氣格柵彰顯新能源身份,同時兩側依舊採用家族式的分體式頭燈設計,其中上方燈源爲 LED 日間行車燈。車身側面部分,蔚來ES7採用了上下分色的懸浮式車頂設計,跟目前在售的ES6和ES8比較相似。車身尺寸方面,長寬高分別爲:4912mm、1987mm、1720mm,軸距爲2960mm。另外,蔚來ES7的輪胎規格還將有255/50 R20、265/45 R21可選。配置方面,新車或將同樣標配NT2.0自動駕駛硬件、7.1.4沉浸聲系統、空氣懸掛、電吸門以及座椅按摩等功能。在動力續航方面,蔚來ES7採用前後雙電機四驅佈局,其前後電機最大功率分別爲180kW、300kW,系統總功率爲480kW,總峯值扭矩達到了850N·m;此外,新車將搭載75kWh的三元鐵鋰以及100kWh的三元鋰電池,預計其CLTC工況續航里程分別在480km、600km左右。0-100km/h的加速能力將在4秒以內,最高車速200km/h。值得一提的是,新車在智能化水平與ET5和ET7兩款車保持一致,同時還將與進口寶馬X5以及保時捷Cayenne進行對標。","listText":"5月13日,工信部發布了蔚來ES7的申報信息。新車定位中大型5座SUV,基於NT2.0技術平臺打造而來,並有望在今年年內交付,售價或將臨近50萬元。外觀方面,新車採用了蔚來家族最新的 X-Bar 設計語言,前臉封閉式進氣格柵彰顯新能源身份,同時兩側依舊採用家族式的分體式頭燈設計,其中上方燈源爲 LED 日間行車燈。車身側面部分,蔚來ES7採用了上下分色的懸浮式車頂設計,跟目前在售的ES6和ES8比較相似。車身尺寸方面,長寬高分別爲:4912mm、1987mm、1720mm,軸距爲2960mm。另外,蔚來ES7的輪胎規格還將有255/50 R20、265/45 R21可選。配置方面,新車或將同樣標配NT2.0自動駕駛硬件、7.1.4沉浸聲系統、空氣懸掛、電吸門以及座椅按摩等功能。在動力續航方面,蔚來ES7採用前後雙電機四驅佈局,其前後電機最大功率分別爲180kW、300kW,系統總功率爲480kW,總峯值扭矩達到了850N·m;此外,新車將搭載75kWh的三元鐵鋰以及100kWh的三元鋰電池,預計其CLTC工況續航里程分別在480km、600km左右。0-100km/h的加速能力將在4秒以內,最高車速200km/h。值得一提的是,新車在智能化水平與ET5和ET7兩款車保持一致,同時還將與進口寶馬X5以及保時捷Cayenne進行對標。","text":"5月13日,工信部發布了蔚來ES7的申報信息。新車定位中大型5座SUV,基於NT2.0技術平臺打造而來,並有望在今年年內交付,售價或將臨近50萬元。外觀方面,新車採用了蔚來家族最新的 X-Bar 設計語言,前臉封閉式進氣格柵彰顯新能源身份,同時兩側依舊採用家族式的分體式頭燈設計,其中上方燈源爲 LED 日間行車燈。車身側面部分,蔚來ES7採用了上下分色的懸浮式車頂設計,跟目前在售的ES6和ES8比較相似。車身尺寸方面,長寬高分別爲:4912mm、1987mm、1720mm,軸距爲2960mm。另外,蔚來ES7的輪胎規格還將有255/50 R20、265/45 R21可選。配置方面,新車或將同樣標配NT2.0自動駕駛硬件、7.1.4沉浸聲系統、空氣懸掛、電吸門以及座椅按摩等功能。在動力續航方面,蔚來ES7採用前後雙電機四驅佈局,其前後電機最大功率分別爲180kW、300kW,系統總功率爲480kW,總峯值扭矩達到了850N·m;此外,新車將搭載75kWh的三元鐵鋰以及100kWh的三元鋰電池,預計其CLTC工況續航里程分別在480km、600km左右。0-100km/h的加速能力將在4秒以內,最高車速200km/h。值得一提的是,新車在智能化水平與ET5和ET7兩款車保持一致,同時還將與進口寶馬X5以及保時捷Cayenne進行對標。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2b4308cc14162407f6831cfd3e8ab2","width":"1282","height":"856"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612550160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062910662,"gmtCreate":1651985856356,"gmtModify":1676535009405,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062910662","repostId":"1131831539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131831539?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.</li></ul><p>It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.</p><p>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.</p><p>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.</p><p><b>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector</b></p><p>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.</p><p>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo</p><p>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.</p><p>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>www.goodcarbadcar.net</p><p><b>Tesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As One</b></p><p>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Page 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.</p><p>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.</p><p>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:</p><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul><p>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.</p><p>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.</p><p>Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Today you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.</p><p>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.</p><p>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.</p><p>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.</p><p>I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.</p><p>At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).</p><p>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.</p><p><b>TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line</b></p><p>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.</p><p>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.</p><p>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.</p><p>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.</p><p>Which Features Come With My Subscription?</p><blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.</i></blockquote><p>The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.</p><p>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.</p><p>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.</p><p>At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?</p><p><b>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care</b></p><p>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.</p><p>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.</p><p>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.</p><p><b>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates</b></p><p>TSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.</p><p>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).</p><p>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.</p><p>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.</p><p>Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.</p><p>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>You're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.</p><p>Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.</p><p>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-08 11:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010485305,"gmtCreate":1648449424643,"gmtModify":1676534339291,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Today share price will go down?","listText":"Today share price will go down?","text":"Today share price will go down?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010485305","repostId":"2222744850","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2222744850","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1648448661,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222744850?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-28 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Suspends Shanghai Factory Output for Four Days on Covid Curbs -Sources","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222744850","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for four days after the financial hub said on Sunday it would lock down in two stages to carry out mass testing for COVID 19, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>The company has notified its workers and suppliers of the move, the people said.</p><p>It initially attempted to create a closed loop to continue production and called workers in on Sunday, one of the sources said. However, it allowed them to leave that evening after it decided it did not have enough provisions for them, the source added.</p><p>Tesla declined to comment on whether production had been suspended. In a statement to Reuters it said that it always strived to fulfil its epidemic prevention responsibilities and that it believed Shanghai's COVID-19 measures helped lay the foundation for the city's future development.</p><p>Shanghai said on Sunday it would lock down the city in two stages to carry out COVID-19 testing over nine days.</p><p>Authorities said they would divide Shanghai in two for the exercise, using the Huangpu River that passes through the city as a guide.</p><p>The Tesla factory is in the Lingang district of Pudong new area, which is part of Shanghai's first lockdown stage. Its lockdown started early on Monday and is scheduled to last until Friday morning.</p><p>Tesla had already in mid-March suspended production at the Shanghai factory for two days after the city rolled out strict movement controls and carried out mass testing.</p><p>Its Shanghai factory produces cars for the China market and is also a crucial export hub to Germany and Japan. It delivered 56,515 vehicles in February, including 33,315 for export, according to the China Passenger Car Association.</p><p>That amounts to an average of about 2,018 vehicles a day.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Suspends Shanghai Factory Output for Four Days on Covid Curbs -Sources</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Suspends Shanghai Factory Output for Four Days on Covid Curbs -Sources\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-28 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for four days after the financial hub said on Sunday it would lock down in two stages to carry out mass testing for COVID 19, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>The company has notified its workers and suppliers of the move, the people said.</p><p>It initially attempted to create a closed loop to continue production and called workers in on Sunday, one of the sources said. However, it allowed them to leave that evening after it decided it did not have enough provisions for them, the source added.</p><p>Tesla declined to comment on whether production had been suspended. In a statement to Reuters it said that it always strived to fulfil its epidemic prevention responsibilities and that it believed Shanghai's COVID-19 measures helped lay the foundation for the city's future development.</p><p>Shanghai said on Sunday it would lock down the city in two stages to carry out COVID-19 testing over nine days.</p><p>Authorities said they would divide Shanghai in two for the exercise, using the Huangpu River that passes through the city as a guide.</p><p>The Tesla factory is in the Lingang district of Pudong new area, which is part of Shanghai's first lockdown stage. Its lockdown started early on Monday and is scheduled to last until Friday morning.</p><p>Tesla had already in mid-March suspended production at the Shanghai factory for two days after the city rolled out strict movement controls and carried out mass testing.</p><p>Its Shanghai factory produces cars for the China market and is also a crucial export hub to Germany and Japan. It delivered 56,515 vehicles in February, including 33,315 for export, according to the China Passenger Car Association.</p><p>That amounts to an average of about 2,018 vehicles a day.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2222744850","content_text":"SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for four days after the financial hub said on Sunday it would lock down in two stages to carry out mass testing for COVID 19, two people familiar with the matter said.The company has notified its workers and suppliers of the move, the people said.It initially attempted to create a closed loop to continue production and called workers in on Sunday, one of the sources said. However, it allowed them to leave that evening after it decided it did not have enough provisions for them, the source added.Tesla declined to comment on whether production had been suspended. In a statement to Reuters it said that it always strived to fulfil its epidemic prevention responsibilities and that it believed Shanghai's COVID-19 measures helped lay the foundation for the city's future development.Shanghai said on Sunday it would lock down the city in two stages to carry out COVID-19 testing over nine days.Authorities said they would divide Shanghai in two for the exercise, using the Huangpu River that passes through the city as a guide.The Tesla factory is in the Lingang district of Pudong new area, which is part of Shanghai's first lockdown stage. Its lockdown started early on Monday and is scheduled to last until Friday morning.Tesla had already in mid-March suspended production at the Shanghai factory for two days after the city rolled out strict movement controls and carried out mass testing.Its Shanghai factory produces cars for the China market and is also a crucial export hub to Germany and Japan. It delivered 56,515 vehicles in February, including 33,315 for export, according to the China Passenger Car Association.That amounts to an average of about 2,018 vehicles a day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010514715,"gmtCreate":1648427295052,"gmtModify":1676534336208,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple a buy.","listText":"Apple a buy.","text":"Apple a buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010514715","repostId":"1155138099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155138099","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648342031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155138099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Plan For iPhone Subscriptions Could Be Massive - Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155138099","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.We dis","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.</li><li>We discuss why it could help Apple penetrate more effectively into Android's traditional strongholds and take share.</li><li>We also discuss why AAPL stock is a Buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc9714ab5a74941eaf8758b8b77e3a3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PhillDanze/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p></p><h2>Investment Thesis</h2><p>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was reported to be considering a hardware subscription service for its suite of products. So naturally, the attention is on its flagship iPhone segment. Nevertheless, nothing has been confirmed, and plans could continue to be developed or even stalled.</p><p>However, we believe it could mark a significant pivot in Apple's strategy to reach further into Android's (GOOGL) (GOOG) installed base. Apple's 5G launches starting with iPhone 12, have seen tremendous success in the US and China. Furthermore, iPhone 13 has continued its massive momentum. Recent supply chain checks also revealed that it's trending ahead of estimates, despite the transitory shutdown by its key contract manufacturer Foxconn (OTCPK:HNHAF).</p><p>We discuss why hardware/iPhone subscriptions could be a massive game-changer. We also maintain our Buy rating on AAPL stock. But, we noted a robust recovery from its March bottom, and its price action doesn't seem ideal to add exposure.</p><p>Therefore, if you are not in a rush, you can consider waiting for the recent spike to be digested first before adding.</p><p><b>AAPL Stock Key Metrics</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/612265ffa4b9faeeddd47fdd0766fca4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL stock NTM EBIT valuation (TIKR)</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1dbf8a24918fcadf0b82caff8e4270\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL stock consensus price targets Vs. stock performance (TIKR)</span></p><p></p><p>AAPL stock's NTM EBIT multiple of 22.9x is trading ahead of its 3Y NTM EBIT mean of 20.2x. So, AAPL stock has moved away from the 20x multiple that has supported its stock over the past year.</p><p>Furthermore, the stock has also progressed well ahead of its most conservative price targets ((PTs)) as seen above. Its most conservative PTs have been robust support levels for AAPL stock over time. Therefore, we think the current buy zone is not ideal if you are looking to add exposure. But, if you are not concerned with near-term volatility, its stock is still not significantly overvalued.</p><p>Furthermore, we believe that Apple holds several optionalities that could spur the Street to re-rate its stock. These include its Apple Car project, its burgeoning services segment, and its rapidly growing ad business.</p><h2>Why Apple's iPhone Subscriptions Could Be A Game-Changer</h2><p>Bloomberg reported that Apple is mulling a subscription service for its hardware, including its iconic iPhone. Therefore, subscribers would only need to pay a monthly fee. Apple would manage the program through a subscriber's Apple account, similar to how they have subscribed to other Apple services.</p><p>Notably, it's different from its current installment programs. Bloomberg noted (edited): "The monthly charge wouldn't be the price of the device split across 12 or 24 months. Rather, it would be a yet-to-be-determined monthly fee that depends on which device the user chooses."</p><p>We believe that this could be a noteworthy development in Apple's services strategy. Apple has been moving ahead with monetizing its massive hardware active installed base that has exceeded 1.65B. Of these, it reported that 785M have signed up as subscribers for its suite of services in FQ1'22 (CQ4'21).</p><p>Apple's premium smartphone leadership has undoubtedly helped it extend its lead in its segment. For example, Counterpoint Research pointed out that Apple has continued to expand its premium segment market share in China. It accentuated thatApple captured 63.5% in the premium segment share in 2021, compared to 55.4% in 2020. Therefore, Apple has capitalized on Huawei's demise with incredible "ruthlessness," despite the best efforts from its Chinese smartphone rivals.</p><p>However, according to StatCounter, Android remains the most important mobile OS globally, with adevice share of 71%. Therefore, it's clear that most users are still equipped with much cheaper Android phones, and Apple has yet to penetrate this segment.</p><p>While the $429 iPhone SE 5G holds promise, the Street has projected just about 30M units this year. Furthermore, DIGITIMES also reported thatApple shipped about 25M to 30M unitsof its previous iPhone SE in 2020 in its first year of release. Moreover, Counterpoint Research also highlighted that it accounted for about "12% of Apple's total iPhone unit salesfrom its launch in Q2 2020 to Q4 2021 - with Japan and US the biggest markets for the device globally."</p><p>Therefore, if Apple wants to make its mark in the low to mid-segment and gain share against Android, a subscription service makes tremendous sense. China's 5G smartphone penetration rate has already reached about 80%. But, the opportunities in the rest of Asia and Europe could offer Apple tremendous potential. Notably, Apple needs to make its iPhone more affordable without impinging on its treasured margins. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman even suggested that Apple launch a $199 iPhone SE 5G to penetrate the low to mid-tier segment more effectively before its Peek Performance event in March. He emphasized (edited):</p><blockquote><i>A device priced at $200 could make inroads in regions like Africa, South America, and parts of Asia that are currently Android strongholds</i>.</blockquote><blockquote>That would let Apple<i>sign up more customers for services</i>, potentially making a low-end iPhone quite lucrative for Apple in the long run. But so far, the company has steered well clear of that approach.</blockquote><blockquote>In 2013, when carrier subsidies began to disappear and demand for a lower-cost iPhone grew, Apple executives said they wouldn't release a cheap model just to blindly chase market share. It did put out the lower-end SE in 2016, but the phone was $399-well above the level of many Androids-and the price never came down over the following five years.<i>The company has stuck by Steve Jobs' 'don't ship junk' ethos.</i>-Bloomberg</blockquote><p>Furthermore, the 5G upgrade cycle is still in its early stages and gaining rapid adoption. Counterpoint Research also highlighted in a recent note thatglobal 5G smartphone penetrationsurpassed 4G for the first time in January 2022.</p><p>Therefore, there's a considerable opportunity for Apple to leverage this 5G wave to encourage switchers from Android to iOS. Hence, we believe a hardware subscription strategy could be massive for the Cupertino company to spur the adoption of its 5G devices.</p><p>We believe that Apple can continue innovating and introducing effective ideas to capture the segment Android has traditionally dominated without necessarily sacrificing its brand value and margins.</p><h2>Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p>AAPL stock is slightly overvalued, but not by much. Therefore, if you need a higher margin of safety, you can consider taking a 10-15% haircut.</p><p>Otherwise, if you have a firm conviction of Apple's execution ability, the current price could offer a suitable opportunity to increase exposure.</p><p>Furthermore, we think Apple has several optionalities that have not been factored into its stock price. And the potential hardware subscription strategy adds to its growing list of monetization potential.</p><p>As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on AAPL stock.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Plan For iPhone Subscriptions Could Be Massive - Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Plan For iPhone Subscriptions Could Be Massive - Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-27 08:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497874-apple-iphone-subscriptions-could-be-massive><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.We discuss why it could help Apple penetrate more effectively into Android's traditional strongholds and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497874-apple-iphone-subscriptions-could-be-massive\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497874-apple-iphone-subscriptions-could-be-massive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155138099","content_text":"Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.We discuss why it could help Apple penetrate more effectively into Android's traditional strongholds and take share.We also discuss why AAPL stock is a Buy.PhillDanze/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment ThesisApple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was reported to be considering a hardware subscription service for its suite of products. So naturally, the attention is on its flagship iPhone segment. Nevertheless, nothing has been confirmed, and plans could continue to be developed or even stalled.However, we believe it could mark a significant pivot in Apple's strategy to reach further into Android's (GOOGL) (GOOG) installed base. Apple's 5G launches starting with iPhone 12, have seen tremendous success in the US and China. Furthermore, iPhone 13 has continued its massive momentum. Recent supply chain checks also revealed that it's trending ahead of estimates, despite the transitory shutdown by its key contract manufacturer Foxconn (OTCPK:HNHAF).We discuss why hardware/iPhone subscriptions could be a massive game-changer. We also maintain our Buy rating on AAPL stock. But, we noted a robust recovery from its March bottom, and its price action doesn't seem ideal to add exposure.Therefore, if you are not in a rush, you can consider waiting for the recent spike to be digested first before adding.AAPL Stock Key MetricsAAPL stock NTM EBIT valuation (TIKR)AAPL stock consensus price targets Vs. stock performance (TIKR)AAPL stock's NTM EBIT multiple of 22.9x is trading ahead of its 3Y NTM EBIT mean of 20.2x. So, AAPL stock has moved away from the 20x multiple that has supported its stock over the past year.Furthermore, the stock has also progressed well ahead of its most conservative price targets ((PTs)) as seen above. Its most conservative PTs have been robust support levels for AAPL stock over time. Therefore, we think the current buy zone is not ideal if you are looking to add exposure. But, if you are not concerned with near-term volatility, its stock is still not significantly overvalued.Furthermore, we believe that Apple holds several optionalities that could spur the Street to re-rate its stock. These include its Apple Car project, its burgeoning services segment, and its rapidly growing ad business.Why Apple's iPhone Subscriptions Could Be A Game-ChangerBloomberg reported that Apple is mulling a subscription service for its hardware, including its iconic iPhone. Therefore, subscribers would only need to pay a monthly fee. Apple would manage the program through a subscriber's Apple account, similar to how they have subscribed to other Apple services.Notably, it's different from its current installment programs. Bloomberg noted (edited): \"The monthly charge wouldn't be the price of the device split across 12 or 24 months. Rather, it would be a yet-to-be-determined monthly fee that depends on which device the user chooses.\"We believe that this could be a noteworthy development in Apple's services strategy. Apple has been moving ahead with monetizing its massive hardware active installed base that has exceeded 1.65B. Of these, it reported that 785M have signed up as subscribers for its suite of services in FQ1'22 (CQ4'21).Apple's premium smartphone leadership has undoubtedly helped it extend its lead in its segment. For example, Counterpoint Research pointed out that Apple has continued to expand its premium segment market share in China. It accentuated thatApple captured 63.5% in the premium segment share in 2021, compared to 55.4% in 2020. Therefore, Apple has capitalized on Huawei's demise with incredible \"ruthlessness,\" despite the best efforts from its Chinese smartphone rivals.However, according to StatCounter, Android remains the most important mobile OS globally, with adevice share of 71%. Therefore, it's clear that most users are still equipped with much cheaper Android phones, and Apple has yet to penetrate this segment.While the $429 iPhone SE 5G holds promise, the Street has projected just about 30M units this year. Furthermore, DIGITIMES also reported thatApple shipped about 25M to 30M unitsof its previous iPhone SE in 2020 in its first year of release. Moreover, Counterpoint Research also highlighted that it accounted for about \"12% of Apple's total iPhone unit salesfrom its launch in Q2 2020 to Q4 2021 - with Japan and US the biggest markets for the device globally.\"Therefore, if Apple wants to make its mark in the low to mid-segment and gain share against Android, a subscription service makes tremendous sense. China's 5G smartphone penetration rate has already reached about 80%. But, the opportunities in the rest of Asia and Europe could offer Apple tremendous potential. Notably, Apple needs to make its iPhone more affordable without impinging on its treasured margins. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman even suggested that Apple launch a $199 iPhone SE 5G to penetrate the low to mid-tier segment more effectively before its Peek Performance event in March. He emphasized (edited):A device priced at $200 could make inroads in regions like Africa, South America, and parts of Asia that are currently Android strongholds.That would let Applesign up more customers for services, potentially making a low-end iPhone quite lucrative for Apple in the long run. But so far, the company has steered well clear of that approach.In 2013, when carrier subsidies began to disappear and demand for a lower-cost iPhone grew, Apple executives said they wouldn't release a cheap model just to blindly chase market share. It did put out the lower-end SE in 2016, but the phone was $399-well above the level of many Androids-and the price never came down over the following five years.The company has stuck by Steve Jobs' 'don't ship junk' ethos.-BloombergFurthermore, the 5G upgrade cycle is still in its early stages and gaining rapid adoption. Counterpoint Research also highlighted in a recent note thatglobal 5G smartphone penetrationsurpassed 4G for the first time in January 2022.Therefore, there's a considerable opportunity for Apple to leverage this 5G wave to encourage switchers from Android to iOS. Hence, we believe a hardware subscription strategy could be massive for the Cupertino company to spur the adoption of its 5G devices.We believe that Apple can continue innovating and introducing effective ideas to capture the segment Android has traditionally dominated without necessarily sacrificing its brand value and margins.Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL stock is slightly overvalued, but not by much. Therefore, if you need a higher margin of safety, you can consider taking a 10-15% haircut.Otherwise, if you have a firm conviction of Apple's execution ability, the current price could offer a suitable opportunity to increase exposure.Furthermore, we think Apple has several optionalities that have not been factored into its stock price. And the potential hardware subscription strategy adds to its growing list of monetization potential.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on AAPL stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274730958210","authorId":"3479274730958210","name":"historyiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673f24849e790c3aa318f19aa443d828","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274730958210","authorIdStr":"3479274730958210"},"content":"Maybe things will be changed sooner or later, we should be careful.","text":"Maybe things will be changed sooner or later, we should be careful.","html":"Maybe things will be changed sooner or later, we should be careful."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9010514715,"gmtCreate":1648427295052,"gmtModify":1676534336208,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple a buy.","listText":"Apple a buy.","text":"Apple a buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010514715","repostId":"1155138099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155138099","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648342031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155138099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Plan For iPhone Subscriptions Could Be Massive - Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155138099","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.We dis","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.</li><li>We discuss why it could help Apple penetrate more effectively into Android's traditional strongholds and take share.</li><li>We also discuss why AAPL stock is a Buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc9714ab5a74941eaf8758b8b77e3a3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PhillDanze/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p></p><h2>Investment Thesis</h2><p>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was reported to be considering a hardware subscription service for its suite of products. So naturally, the attention is on its flagship iPhone segment. Nevertheless, nothing has been confirmed, and plans could continue to be developed or even stalled.</p><p>However, we believe it could mark a significant pivot in Apple's strategy to reach further into Android's (GOOGL) (GOOG) installed base. Apple's 5G launches starting with iPhone 12, have seen tremendous success in the US and China. Furthermore, iPhone 13 has continued its massive momentum. Recent supply chain checks also revealed that it's trending ahead of estimates, despite the transitory shutdown by its key contract manufacturer Foxconn (OTCPK:HNHAF).</p><p>We discuss why hardware/iPhone subscriptions could be a massive game-changer. We also maintain our Buy rating on AAPL stock. But, we noted a robust recovery from its March bottom, and its price action doesn't seem ideal to add exposure.</p><p>Therefore, if you are not in a rush, you can consider waiting for the recent spike to be digested first before adding.</p><p><b>AAPL Stock Key Metrics</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/612265ffa4b9faeeddd47fdd0766fca4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL stock NTM EBIT valuation (TIKR)</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1dbf8a24918fcadf0b82caff8e4270\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AAPL stock consensus price targets Vs. stock performance (TIKR)</span></p><p></p><p>AAPL stock's NTM EBIT multiple of 22.9x is trading ahead of its 3Y NTM EBIT mean of 20.2x. So, AAPL stock has moved away from the 20x multiple that has supported its stock over the past year.</p><p>Furthermore, the stock has also progressed well ahead of its most conservative price targets ((PTs)) as seen above. Its most conservative PTs have been robust support levels for AAPL stock over time. Therefore, we think the current buy zone is not ideal if you are looking to add exposure. But, if you are not concerned with near-term volatility, its stock is still not significantly overvalued.</p><p>Furthermore, we believe that Apple holds several optionalities that could spur the Street to re-rate its stock. These include its Apple Car project, its burgeoning services segment, and its rapidly growing ad business.</p><h2>Why Apple's iPhone Subscriptions Could Be A Game-Changer</h2><p>Bloomberg reported that Apple is mulling a subscription service for its hardware, including its iconic iPhone. Therefore, subscribers would only need to pay a monthly fee. Apple would manage the program through a subscriber's Apple account, similar to how they have subscribed to other Apple services.</p><p>Notably, it's different from its current installment programs. Bloomberg noted (edited): "The monthly charge wouldn't be the price of the device split across 12 or 24 months. Rather, it would be a yet-to-be-determined monthly fee that depends on which device the user chooses."</p><p>We believe that this could be a noteworthy development in Apple's services strategy. Apple has been moving ahead with monetizing its massive hardware active installed base that has exceeded 1.65B. Of these, it reported that 785M have signed up as subscribers for its suite of services in FQ1'22 (CQ4'21).</p><p>Apple's premium smartphone leadership has undoubtedly helped it extend its lead in its segment. For example, Counterpoint Research pointed out that Apple has continued to expand its premium segment market share in China. It accentuated thatApple captured 63.5% in the premium segment share in 2021, compared to 55.4% in 2020. Therefore, Apple has capitalized on Huawei's demise with incredible "ruthlessness," despite the best efforts from its Chinese smartphone rivals.</p><p>However, according to StatCounter, Android remains the most important mobile OS globally, with adevice share of 71%. Therefore, it's clear that most users are still equipped with much cheaper Android phones, and Apple has yet to penetrate this segment.</p><p>While the $429 iPhone SE 5G holds promise, the Street has projected just about 30M units this year. Furthermore, DIGITIMES also reported thatApple shipped about 25M to 30M unitsof its previous iPhone SE in 2020 in its first year of release. Moreover, Counterpoint Research also highlighted that it accounted for about "12% of Apple's total iPhone unit salesfrom its launch in Q2 2020 to Q4 2021 - with Japan and US the biggest markets for the device globally."</p><p>Therefore, if Apple wants to make its mark in the low to mid-segment and gain share against Android, a subscription service makes tremendous sense. China's 5G smartphone penetration rate has already reached about 80%. But, the opportunities in the rest of Asia and Europe could offer Apple tremendous potential. Notably, Apple needs to make its iPhone more affordable without impinging on its treasured margins. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman even suggested that Apple launch a $199 iPhone SE 5G to penetrate the low to mid-tier segment more effectively before its Peek Performance event in March. He emphasized (edited):</p><blockquote><i>A device priced at $200 could make inroads in regions like Africa, South America, and parts of Asia that are currently Android strongholds</i>.</blockquote><blockquote>That would let Apple<i>sign up more customers for services</i>, potentially making a low-end iPhone quite lucrative for Apple in the long run. But so far, the company has steered well clear of that approach.</blockquote><blockquote>In 2013, when carrier subsidies began to disappear and demand for a lower-cost iPhone grew, Apple executives said they wouldn't release a cheap model just to blindly chase market share. It did put out the lower-end SE in 2016, but the phone was $399-well above the level of many Androids-and the price never came down over the following five years.<i>The company has stuck by Steve Jobs' 'don't ship junk' ethos.</i>-Bloomberg</blockquote><p>Furthermore, the 5G upgrade cycle is still in its early stages and gaining rapid adoption. Counterpoint Research also highlighted in a recent note thatglobal 5G smartphone penetrationsurpassed 4G for the first time in January 2022.</p><p>Therefore, there's a considerable opportunity for Apple to leverage this 5G wave to encourage switchers from Android to iOS. Hence, we believe a hardware subscription strategy could be massive for the Cupertino company to spur the adoption of its 5G devices.</p><p>We believe that Apple can continue innovating and introducing effective ideas to capture the segment Android has traditionally dominated without necessarily sacrificing its brand value and margins.</p><h2>Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p>AAPL stock is slightly overvalued, but not by much. Therefore, if you need a higher margin of safety, you can consider taking a 10-15% haircut.</p><p>Otherwise, if you have a firm conviction of Apple's execution ability, the current price could offer a suitable opportunity to increase exposure.</p><p>Furthermore, we think Apple has several optionalities that have not been factored into its stock price. And the potential hardware subscription strategy adds to its growing list of monetization potential.</p><p>As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on AAPL stock.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Plan For iPhone Subscriptions Could Be Massive - Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Plan For iPhone Subscriptions Could Be Massive - Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-27 08:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497874-apple-iphone-subscriptions-could-be-massive><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.We discuss why it could help Apple penetrate more effectively into Android's traditional strongholds and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497874-apple-iphone-subscriptions-could-be-massive\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497874-apple-iphone-subscriptions-could-be-massive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155138099","content_text":"Bloomberg reported that Apple is considering a hardware subscription strategy for its devices.We discuss why it could help Apple penetrate more effectively into Android's traditional strongholds and take share.We also discuss why AAPL stock is a Buy.PhillDanze/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment ThesisApple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was reported to be considering a hardware subscription service for its suite of products. So naturally, the attention is on its flagship iPhone segment. Nevertheless, nothing has been confirmed, and plans could continue to be developed or even stalled.However, we believe it could mark a significant pivot in Apple's strategy to reach further into Android's (GOOGL) (GOOG) installed base. Apple's 5G launches starting with iPhone 12, have seen tremendous success in the US and China. Furthermore, iPhone 13 has continued its massive momentum. Recent supply chain checks also revealed that it's trending ahead of estimates, despite the transitory shutdown by its key contract manufacturer Foxconn (OTCPK:HNHAF).We discuss why hardware/iPhone subscriptions could be a massive game-changer. We also maintain our Buy rating on AAPL stock. But, we noted a robust recovery from its March bottom, and its price action doesn't seem ideal to add exposure.Therefore, if you are not in a rush, you can consider waiting for the recent spike to be digested first before adding.AAPL Stock Key MetricsAAPL stock NTM EBIT valuation (TIKR)AAPL stock consensus price targets Vs. stock performance (TIKR)AAPL stock's NTM EBIT multiple of 22.9x is trading ahead of its 3Y NTM EBIT mean of 20.2x. So, AAPL stock has moved away from the 20x multiple that has supported its stock over the past year.Furthermore, the stock has also progressed well ahead of its most conservative price targets ((PTs)) as seen above. Its most conservative PTs have been robust support levels for AAPL stock over time. Therefore, we think the current buy zone is not ideal if you are looking to add exposure. But, if you are not concerned with near-term volatility, its stock is still not significantly overvalued.Furthermore, we believe that Apple holds several optionalities that could spur the Street to re-rate its stock. These include its Apple Car project, its burgeoning services segment, and its rapidly growing ad business.Why Apple's iPhone Subscriptions Could Be A Game-ChangerBloomberg reported that Apple is mulling a subscription service for its hardware, including its iconic iPhone. Therefore, subscribers would only need to pay a monthly fee. Apple would manage the program through a subscriber's Apple account, similar to how they have subscribed to other Apple services.Notably, it's different from its current installment programs. Bloomberg noted (edited): \"The monthly charge wouldn't be the price of the device split across 12 or 24 months. Rather, it would be a yet-to-be-determined monthly fee that depends on which device the user chooses.\"We believe that this could be a noteworthy development in Apple's services strategy. Apple has been moving ahead with monetizing its massive hardware active installed base that has exceeded 1.65B. Of these, it reported that 785M have signed up as subscribers for its suite of services in FQ1'22 (CQ4'21).Apple's premium smartphone leadership has undoubtedly helped it extend its lead in its segment. For example, Counterpoint Research pointed out that Apple has continued to expand its premium segment market share in China. It accentuated thatApple captured 63.5% in the premium segment share in 2021, compared to 55.4% in 2020. Therefore, Apple has capitalized on Huawei's demise with incredible \"ruthlessness,\" despite the best efforts from its Chinese smartphone rivals.However, according to StatCounter, Android remains the most important mobile OS globally, with adevice share of 71%. Therefore, it's clear that most users are still equipped with much cheaper Android phones, and Apple has yet to penetrate this segment.While the $429 iPhone SE 5G holds promise, the Street has projected just about 30M units this year. Furthermore, DIGITIMES also reported thatApple shipped about 25M to 30M unitsof its previous iPhone SE in 2020 in its first year of release. Moreover, Counterpoint Research also highlighted that it accounted for about \"12% of Apple's total iPhone unit salesfrom its launch in Q2 2020 to Q4 2021 - with Japan and US the biggest markets for the device globally.\"Therefore, if Apple wants to make its mark in the low to mid-segment and gain share against Android, a subscription service makes tremendous sense. China's 5G smartphone penetration rate has already reached about 80%. But, the opportunities in the rest of Asia and Europe could offer Apple tremendous potential. Notably, Apple needs to make its iPhone more affordable without impinging on its treasured margins. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman even suggested that Apple launch a $199 iPhone SE 5G to penetrate the low to mid-tier segment more effectively before its Peek Performance event in March. He emphasized (edited):A device priced at $200 could make inroads in regions like Africa, South America, and parts of Asia that are currently Android strongholds.That would let Applesign up more customers for services, potentially making a low-end iPhone quite lucrative for Apple in the long run. But so far, the company has steered well clear of that approach.In 2013, when carrier subsidies began to disappear and demand for a lower-cost iPhone grew, Apple executives said they wouldn't release a cheap model just to blindly chase market share. It did put out the lower-end SE in 2016, but the phone was $399-well above the level of many Androids-and the price never came down over the following five years.The company has stuck by Steve Jobs' 'don't ship junk' ethos.-BloombergFurthermore, the 5G upgrade cycle is still in its early stages and gaining rapid adoption. Counterpoint Research also highlighted in a recent note thatglobal 5G smartphone penetrationsurpassed 4G for the first time in January 2022.Therefore, there's a considerable opportunity for Apple to leverage this 5G wave to encourage switchers from Android to iOS. Hence, we believe a hardware subscription strategy could be massive for the Cupertino company to spur the adoption of its 5G devices.We believe that Apple can continue innovating and introducing effective ideas to capture the segment Android has traditionally dominated without necessarily sacrificing its brand value and margins.Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL stock is slightly overvalued, but not by much. Therefore, if you need a higher margin of safety, you can consider taking a 10-15% haircut.Otherwise, if you have a firm conviction of Apple's execution ability, the current price could offer a suitable opportunity to increase exposure.Furthermore, we think Apple has several optionalities that have not been factored into its stock price. And the potential hardware subscription strategy adds to its growing list of monetization potential.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on AAPL stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274730958210","authorId":"3479274730958210","name":"historyiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673f24849e790c3aa318f19aa443d828","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274730958210","authorIdStr":"3479274730958210"},"content":"Maybe things will be changed sooner or later, we should be careful.","text":"Maybe things will be changed sooner or later, we should be careful.","html":"Maybe things will be changed sooner or later, we should be careful."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010485305,"gmtCreate":1648449424643,"gmtModify":1676534339291,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Today share price will go down?","listText":"Today share price will go down?","text":"Today share price will go down?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010485305","repostId":"2222744850","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2222744850","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1648448661,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222744850?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-28 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Suspends Shanghai Factory Output for Four Days on Covid Curbs -Sources","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222744850","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for four days after the financial hub said on Sunday it would lock down in two stages to carry out mass testing for COVID 19, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>The company has notified its workers and suppliers of the move, the people said.</p><p>It initially attempted to create a closed loop to continue production and called workers in on Sunday, one of the sources said. However, it allowed them to leave that evening after it decided it did not have enough provisions for them, the source added.</p><p>Tesla declined to comment on whether production had been suspended. In a statement to Reuters it said that it always strived to fulfil its epidemic prevention responsibilities and that it believed Shanghai's COVID-19 measures helped lay the foundation for the city's future development.</p><p>Shanghai said on Sunday it would lock down the city in two stages to carry out COVID-19 testing over nine days.</p><p>Authorities said they would divide Shanghai in two for the exercise, using the Huangpu River that passes through the city as a guide.</p><p>The Tesla factory is in the Lingang district of Pudong new area, which is part of Shanghai's first lockdown stage. Its lockdown started early on Monday and is scheduled to last until Friday morning.</p><p>Tesla had already in mid-March suspended production at the Shanghai factory for two days after the city rolled out strict movement controls and carried out mass testing.</p><p>Its Shanghai factory produces cars for the China market and is also a crucial export hub to Germany and Japan. It delivered 56,515 vehicles in February, including 33,315 for export, according to the China Passenger Car Association.</p><p>That amounts to an average of about 2,018 vehicles a day.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Suspends Shanghai Factory Output for Four Days on Covid Curbs -Sources</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Suspends Shanghai Factory Output for Four Days on Covid Curbs -Sources\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-28 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for four days after the financial hub said on Sunday it would lock down in two stages to carry out mass testing for COVID 19, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>The company has notified its workers and suppliers of the move, the people said.</p><p>It initially attempted to create a closed loop to continue production and called workers in on Sunday, one of the sources said. However, it allowed them to leave that evening after it decided it did not have enough provisions for them, the source added.</p><p>Tesla declined to comment on whether production had been suspended. In a statement to Reuters it said that it always strived to fulfil its epidemic prevention responsibilities and that it believed Shanghai's COVID-19 measures helped lay the foundation for the city's future development.</p><p>Shanghai said on Sunday it would lock down the city in two stages to carry out COVID-19 testing over nine days.</p><p>Authorities said they would divide Shanghai in two for the exercise, using the Huangpu River that passes through the city as a guide.</p><p>The Tesla factory is in the Lingang district of Pudong new area, which is part of Shanghai's first lockdown stage. Its lockdown started early on Monday and is scheduled to last until Friday morning.</p><p>Tesla had already in mid-March suspended production at the Shanghai factory for two days after the city rolled out strict movement controls and carried out mass testing.</p><p>Its Shanghai factory produces cars for the China market and is also a crucial export hub to Germany and Japan. It delivered 56,515 vehicles in February, including 33,315 for export, according to the China Passenger Car Association.</p><p>That amounts to an average of about 2,018 vehicles a day.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2222744850","content_text":"SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for four days after the financial hub said on Sunday it would lock down in two stages to carry out mass testing for COVID 19, two people familiar with the matter said.The company has notified its workers and suppliers of the move, the people said.It initially attempted to create a closed loop to continue production and called workers in on Sunday, one of the sources said. However, it allowed them to leave that evening after it decided it did not have enough provisions for them, the source added.Tesla declined to comment on whether production had been suspended. In a statement to Reuters it said that it always strived to fulfil its epidemic prevention responsibilities and that it believed Shanghai's COVID-19 measures helped lay the foundation for the city's future development.Shanghai said on Sunday it would lock down the city in two stages to carry out COVID-19 testing over nine days.Authorities said they would divide Shanghai in two for the exercise, using the Huangpu River that passes through the city as a guide.The Tesla factory is in the Lingang district of Pudong new area, which is part of Shanghai's first lockdown stage. Its lockdown started early on Monday and is scheduled to last until Friday morning.Tesla had already in mid-March suspended production at the Shanghai factory for two days after the city rolled out strict movement controls and carried out mass testing.Its Shanghai factory produces cars for the China market and is also a crucial export hub to Germany and Japan. It delivered 56,515 vehicles in February, including 33,315 for export, according to the China Passenger Car Association.That amounts to an average of about 2,018 vehicles a day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021264351,"gmtCreate":1653060896673,"gmtModify":1676535216918,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021264351","repostId":"2236012743","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236012743","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653056497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236012743?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 22:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Looking for the Next Tesla? There Won't Be One","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236012743","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"At least not in electric vehicles.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla</b> has taken the market by storm in just a few short years. The electric-vehicle (EV) stock is up nearly 2,000% in the last few years as the company went from a cash-burning niche player to the leader in the biggest transition in automobiles in a century.</p><p>EVs are going mainstream, and Tesla is the reason why, but the stock isn't just up on hype. The automaker has delivered both strong revenue growth and profitability. In Tesla's first quarter, revenue jumped 81% to $18.8 billion, and operating income rose more than six times to $3.6 billion. Operating margin ramped up to 19.2%, well ahead of any other major automaker.</p><p>Tesla's success has sparked a boom in electric-vehicle stocks, including traditional automakers like <b>GM </b>and <b>Ford</b>, which are pivoting to EVs. In fact, there's no shortage of EV start-ups that have been dubbed the "next Tesla," including <b>Rivian</b>, <b>Lucid</b>, <b>Nikola</b>, <b>Nio</b>, <b>BYD</b> and Polestar, which is soon to go public through a SPAC merger with <b>Gores Guggenheim</b>.</p><p>While there will almost certainly be other successful electric-vehicle companies, there won't be another EV stock with eye-popping returns like Tesla. Here's why.</p><h2>Tesla is the disruptor</h2><p>Tesla went from a market cap of around $50 billion to north of $1 trillion in just about two years because it successfully disrupted a massive industry. The company is nearly 20 years old now and has been public since 2010, but it wasn't until 2020 that it reached a tipping point where profitability was assured and the market was convinced that electric vehicles were the future of the automobile industry.</p><p>Tesla stock was able to gain 2,000% in a short period of time because the market gave long odds to its success. In fact, in 2018 and 2019, many of the headlines on Tesla focused on its cash burn rate and its chances of going bankrupt. Today, it's a much different story, and the unlikeliness if its success, at least in the market's eyes, is as much of a reason for the stock's monster returns as is the success of the business itself. Though hype played a role in the stock's jump, at this point the valuation is well-supported by the fundamentals as the stock is trading at a forward P/E of 60 with an expected 60% revenue growth this year.</p><p>But now that Tesla has disrupted the auto industry, it can't be disrupted again, or at least not in the same way. Rivals like Rivian, Lucid and the other Tesla wannabes don't have anything to disrupt electric vehicles because they're already going mainstream. All they have to do is follow the path that Tesla has paved for them and enjoy the sky-high EV valuations that Tesla's success has created for the industry. While there's room for improvement in any product, the magic moment of proof-of-concept in EV's has already happened, thanks to Tesla, and that can't be repeated.</p><p>There's a reason why many of the most successful stocks of the 21st century were disruptors. These are stocks like <b>Amazon </b>in e-commerce and cloud computing, <b>Netflix </b>in video entertainment, and <b>Apple </b>in telephony. It's very hard to disrupt an entrenched industry, and the market is generally skeptical of would-be disruptors until they've proven themselves. Like Tesla, Amazon and Netflix were unprofitable for much of their histories, which increased the market's odds against them, helping them deliver huge returns in the long run.</p><p>Going from a start-up to successfully disrupting a massive industry will usually result in fantastic returns, but the market is also skeptical of disruptors because most of them fail.</p><h2>The Tesla effect</h2><p>As stocks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most important differences between Tesla and its EV challengers is its valuation. Tesla's success distorted the market for EV stocks, and there's an enormous gap between challengers like Rivian and Lucid, compared to Tesla when it had a similar market cap.</p><p>For instance, Tesla finished 2018 at a market cap of $57 billion. It had $21 billion in revenue and delivered 245,000 vehicles that year. Though it lost money for the year, it made a $414 million operating profit in the fourth quarter.</p><p>By comparison, Rivian's market cap briefly topped $150 billion shortly after its Initial Public Offering (IPO) last November, even though it had only begun selling vehicles two months earlier. Similarly, Nikola's market cap was $30 billion at one point without having sold a vehicle, and Lucid flirted with a $100 billion market value late last year, even though it only began selling cars last fall.</p><p>In other words, these stocks were priced for perfection in what now looks like clear signs of market exuberance. Take a look at how these stocks have fared in the last few months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb9523b25c92fb74bfbcc59e865b68a8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>LCID data by YCharts.</p><p>While Tesla is down over the last six months, tracking with other growth stocks, the rest of the EV sector has come crashing down and could still fall further. Unlike Tesla a few years ago, these EV companies face intense competition in electric vehicles, including against traditional automakers, and many of the start-ups are unproven, since they only recently brought their products to market. By contrast, Tesla has been selling electric cars since 2008.</p><p>With the level of competition in EVs now, it's unrealistic to expect there to be another trillion-dollar EV company, and it won't be easy for Tesla to maintain its valuation, either.</p><h2>How to find the next Tesla</h2><p>The next Tesla won't be in EVs. It won't be in an industry that's already been disrupted. Instead, it will be a company that went public for a small market cap and is challenging incumbents in an industry with a large addressable market.</p><p>Most investors will be skeptical of its success, and it will probably be losing money, despite an impressive growth rate. In other words, it will have a number of the hallmarks of Tesla, but operate in a different industry and sell a different product.</p><p>Finding the next Tesla won't be easy, but if you're looking in the electric-vehicle sector, you're looking in the wrong place.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking for the Next Tesla? There Won't Be One</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking for the Next Tesla? There Won't Be One\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-20 22:21 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/looking-for-the-next-tesla-there-wont-be-one/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla has taken the market by storm in just a few short years. The electric-vehicle (EV) stock is up nearly 2,000% in the last few years as the company went from a cash-burning niche player to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/looking-for-the-next-tesla-there-wont-be-one/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/looking-for-the-next-tesla-there-wont-be-one/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236012743","content_text":"Tesla has taken the market by storm in just a few short years. The electric-vehicle (EV) stock is up nearly 2,000% in the last few years as the company went from a cash-burning niche player to the leader in the biggest transition in automobiles in a century.EVs are going mainstream, and Tesla is the reason why, but the stock isn't just up on hype. The automaker has delivered both strong revenue growth and profitability. In Tesla's first quarter, revenue jumped 81% to $18.8 billion, and operating income rose more than six times to $3.6 billion. Operating margin ramped up to 19.2%, well ahead of any other major automaker.Tesla's success has sparked a boom in electric-vehicle stocks, including traditional automakers like GM and Ford, which are pivoting to EVs. In fact, there's no shortage of EV start-ups that have been dubbed the \"next Tesla,\" including Rivian, Lucid, Nikola, Nio, BYD and Polestar, which is soon to go public through a SPAC merger with Gores Guggenheim.While there will almost certainly be other successful electric-vehicle companies, there won't be another EV stock with eye-popping returns like Tesla. Here's why.Tesla is the disruptorTesla went from a market cap of around $50 billion to north of $1 trillion in just about two years because it successfully disrupted a massive industry. The company is nearly 20 years old now and has been public since 2010, but it wasn't until 2020 that it reached a tipping point where profitability was assured and the market was convinced that electric vehicles were the future of the automobile industry.Tesla stock was able to gain 2,000% in a short period of time because the market gave long odds to its success. In fact, in 2018 and 2019, many of the headlines on Tesla focused on its cash burn rate and its chances of going bankrupt. Today, it's a much different story, and the unlikeliness if its success, at least in the market's eyes, is as much of a reason for the stock's monster returns as is the success of the business itself. Though hype played a role in the stock's jump, at this point the valuation is well-supported by the fundamentals as the stock is trading at a forward P/E of 60 with an expected 60% revenue growth this year.But now that Tesla has disrupted the auto industry, it can't be disrupted again, or at least not in the same way. Rivals like Rivian, Lucid and the other Tesla wannabes don't have anything to disrupt electric vehicles because they're already going mainstream. All they have to do is follow the path that Tesla has paved for them and enjoy the sky-high EV valuations that Tesla's success has created for the industry. While there's room for improvement in any product, the magic moment of proof-of-concept in EV's has already happened, thanks to Tesla, and that can't be repeated.There's a reason why many of the most successful stocks of the 21st century were disruptors. These are stocks like Amazon in e-commerce and cloud computing, Netflix in video entertainment, and Apple in telephony. It's very hard to disrupt an entrenched industry, and the market is generally skeptical of would-be disruptors until they've proven themselves. Like Tesla, Amazon and Netflix were unprofitable for much of their histories, which increased the market's odds against them, helping them deliver huge returns in the long run.Going from a start-up to successfully disrupting a massive industry will usually result in fantastic returns, but the market is also skeptical of disruptors because most of them fail.The Tesla effectAs stocks, one of the most important differences between Tesla and its EV challengers is its valuation. Tesla's success distorted the market for EV stocks, and there's an enormous gap between challengers like Rivian and Lucid, compared to Tesla when it had a similar market cap.For instance, Tesla finished 2018 at a market cap of $57 billion. It had $21 billion in revenue and delivered 245,000 vehicles that year. Though it lost money for the year, it made a $414 million operating profit in the fourth quarter.By comparison, Rivian's market cap briefly topped $150 billion shortly after its Initial Public Offering (IPO) last November, even though it had only begun selling vehicles two months earlier. Similarly, Nikola's market cap was $30 billion at one point without having sold a vehicle, and Lucid flirted with a $100 billion market value late last year, even though it only began selling cars last fall.In other words, these stocks were priced for perfection in what now looks like clear signs of market exuberance. Take a look at how these stocks have fared in the last few months.LCID data by YCharts.While Tesla is down over the last six months, tracking with other growth stocks, the rest of the EV sector has come crashing down and could still fall further. Unlike Tesla a few years ago, these EV companies face intense competition in electric vehicles, including against traditional automakers, and many of the start-ups are unproven, since they only recently brought their products to market. By contrast, Tesla has been selling electric cars since 2008.With the level of competition in EVs now, it's unrealistic to expect there to be another trillion-dollar EV company, and it won't be easy for Tesla to maintain its valuation, either.How to find the next TeslaThe next Tesla won't be in EVs. It won't be in an industry that's already been disrupted. Instead, it will be a company that went public for a small market cap and is challenging incumbents in an industry with a large addressable market.Most investors will be skeptical of its success, and it will probably be losing money, despite an impressive growth rate. In other words, it will have a number of the hallmarks of Tesla, but operate in a different industry and sell a different product.Finding the next Tesla won't be easy, but if you're looking in the electric-vehicle sector, you're looking in the wrong place.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058094440,"gmtCreate":1654749362680,"gmtModify":1676535504506,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058094440","repostId":"1196933904","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196933904","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654746267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196933904?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-09 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy TSLA Ahead of the Planned Tesla Stock Split? What 3 Pros Say","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196933904","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla(TSLA) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.Company shareh","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.</li><li>Company shareholders will vote on the motion to split TSLA stock on August 4.</li><li>Analysts remain cautiously bullish as investors wonder if now is the time to buy.</li></ul><p>Stock split summer is underway and <b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>) has successfully executed one already. Now investor focus has shifted to the next high-growth company that is planning to split its stock.<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) shareholders will vote on August 4 but there is little reason to believe the motion will fail. Investors remember the first TSLA stock split of 2020 and the impressive returns it netted for them. As the catalyst draws near, investors are considering an important question: Should I buy more TSLA stock before the split?</p><p>As TSLA stock has slipped recently, it has seen several analyst downgrades. Names such as Dan Ives and Alexander Potter have downgraded their TSLA price targets, citing production concerns and lack of trust in Musk’s leadership. But as the Tesla stock split nears, plenty of investors remain generally bullish on the stock. Shares have traded well today and are close to pulling back into the green for the week after a steep decline on June 2 when Elon Musk expressed a negative feeling about the economy.</p><p>Musk is feeling “super bad” about the economic landscape. However, most of Wall Street still regards TSLA stock as a “buy.” Analysts are regarding Tesla with caution but still see the current dip as a buying opportunity.</p><p>Let’s take a look at what industry experts are saying as the Tesla stock split approaches.</p><p><b>TSLA Stock Split: Analysts Weigh In</b></p><ul><li>Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho Securities recently upgraded his rating for TSLA and set a bullish price target of $1,300. He praised the company for successfully executing despite market turbulence. As he outlined in a note to clients:</li></ul><blockquote>We believe TSLA has potentially ~1.4M of its 1.5M C22E target units that could be produced at just Fremont and primarily Shanghai as the major hub. But with Shanghai residents/logistics still mostly in lockdown, we believe Giga-Shanghai reopening will likely be slower than expected, with headwinds in intra- and inter-city logistics a nearterm JunQ drag.</blockquote><ul><li>New Street’s Pierre Ferragu also recently reiterated a “buy” rating. His price target of $1,580 is currently the highest set for TSLA stock on <i>Tipranks</i>. However, the analyst accounts for the economic and industry headwinds facing Tesla in the current quarter.Per<i>Barron’s</i>: “Ferragu, for his part, projects 251,000 deliveries, down from about 310,000 in the first quarter. The second quarter will break a streak of eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries.” Ferragu also believes Tesla is likely to only break even in terms of free cash flow (FCF). And he has a far more downbeat view than the $1.3 billion consensus FCF figure. Yet he remains a bull on TSLA stock, rating it at “buy,” with a price target of $1,580.</li><li>Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs recently lowered his TSLA stock price target from$1,200 to $1,000.But he still sees it as a “buy.” While the firm is lowered its global forecast for the auto industry, <i>Pulse 2.0</i> reports that “Delaney is expecting volumes to continue rising with the latest search data showing strong electric vehicle demand — which is largely being driven by soaring gas prices.”</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy TSLA Ahead of the Planned Tesla Stock Split? What 3 Pros Say</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy TSLA Ahead of the Planned Tesla Stock Split? What 3 Pros Say\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-09 11:44 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/06/buy-tsla-ahead-of-the-planned-tesla-stock-split-what-3-pros-say/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla(TSLA) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.Company shareholders will vote on the motion to split TSLA stock on August 4.Analysts remain cautiously bullish as...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/buy-tsla-ahead-of-the-planned-tesla-stock-split-what-3-pros-say/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/buy-tsla-ahead-of-the-planned-tesla-stock-split-what-3-pros-say/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196933904","content_text":"Tesla(TSLA) is seeing plenty of turbulence as it prepares for a potential stock split.Company shareholders will vote on the motion to split TSLA stock on August 4.Analysts remain cautiously bullish as investors wonder if now is the time to buy.Stock split summer is underway and Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) has successfully executed one already. Now investor focus has shifted to the next high-growth company that is planning to split its stock.Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) shareholders will vote on August 4 but there is little reason to believe the motion will fail. Investors remember the first TSLA stock split of 2020 and the impressive returns it netted for them. As the catalyst draws near, investors are considering an important question: Should I buy more TSLA stock before the split?As TSLA stock has slipped recently, it has seen several analyst downgrades. Names such as Dan Ives and Alexander Potter have downgraded their TSLA price targets, citing production concerns and lack of trust in Musk’s leadership. But as the Tesla stock split nears, plenty of investors remain generally bullish on the stock. Shares have traded well today and are close to pulling back into the green for the week after a steep decline on June 2 when Elon Musk expressed a negative feeling about the economy.Musk is feeling “super bad” about the economic landscape. However, most of Wall Street still regards TSLA stock as a “buy.” Analysts are regarding Tesla with caution but still see the current dip as a buying opportunity.Let’s take a look at what industry experts are saying as the Tesla stock split approaches.TSLA Stock Split: Analysts Weigh InVijay Rakesh of Mizuho Securities recently upgraded his rating for TSLA and set a bullish price target of $1,300. He praised the company for successfully executing despite market turbulence. As he outlined in a note to clients:We believe TSLA has potentially ~1.4M of its 1.5M C22E target units that could be produced at just Fremont and primarily Shanghai as the major hub. But with Shanghai residents/logistics still mostly in lockdown, we believe Giga-Shanghai reopening will likely be slower than expected, with headwinds in intra- and inter-city logistics a nearterm JunQ drag.New Street’s Pierre Ferragu also recently reiterated a “buy” rating. His price target of $1,580 is currently the highest set for TSLA stock on Tipranks. However, the analyst accounts for the economic and industry headwinds facing Tesla in the current quarter.PerBarron’s: “Ferragu, for his part, projects 251,000 deliveries, down from about 310,000 in the first quarter. The second quarter will break a streak of eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries.” Ferragu also believes Tesla is likely to only break even in terms of free cash flow (FCF). And he has a far more downbeat view than the $1.3 billion consensus FCF figure. Yet he remains a bull on TSLA stock, rating it at “buy,” with a price target of $1,580.Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs recently lowered his TSLA stock price target from$1,200 to $1,000.But he still sees it as a “buy.” While the firm is lowered its global forecast for the auto industry, Pulse 2.0 reports that “Delaney is expecting volumes to continue rising with the latest search data showing strong electric vehicle demand — which is largely being driven by soaring gas prices.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026164133,"gmtCreate":1653349369822,"gmtModify":1676535264074,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026164133","repostId":"1133893720","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133893720","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653318463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133893720?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Has Fallen Below $700. Why $540 Might Be Next.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133893720","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundament","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundamental investors might want to note.</p><p>Coming into Monday trading, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) shares are off about 38% since the end of March. The S&P 500 is down about 14% over that span. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 20%.</p><p>Pretty much everything has gone wrong for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors in the past few weeks. The company’s most productive plant in Shanghai was shut and is now operating at reduced capacity because of Covid-19 lockdowns in China. Reuters reported Monday that adding more employees to increase production is being pushed out a few days.</p><p>The delay might be why Tesla stock is down in early trading Monday. A documentary on Hulu produced by the New York Times about Tesla’s driver assistance features probably isn’t helping either. The documentary gives the impression Tesla’s system isn’t as safe as other systems. An accident from 2016 is featured prominently. Tesla’s system was exonerated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in that incident. Tesla, for its part, produces quarterly safety reports that indicate Teslas are some of the safest vehicles on the roads, and says its driver assistance features required driver supervision 100% of the time.</p><p>Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment about Shanghai production or the documentary.</p><p>Tesla stock has fallen 0.5% at 11 a.m. Monday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively, to start at week.</p><p>Then there is the market selloff and CEO Elon Musk’s potential purchase of Twitter (TWTR), which has been a distraction for investors and led to Musk selling a large block of Tesla stock to help finance his deal.</p><p>Inflation in hurting too. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, for instance, downgraded General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) stock, and cut his Tesla price target in mid-May, after coming to the conclusion that the prices for battery materials, such as lithium, would be elevated for years to come.</p><p>All the bad news has left Tesla stock trading about 28% below its 50-day moving average and 27% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average, at about $922 a share is still higher than the 200-day average of about $913.</p><p>The crossing of moving averages is one sign traders look for. The 50 going below the 200 is a bad sign. A few more days of trading like recent returns and investors will have to deal with that along with everything else.</p><p>Tesla “has confirmed an intermediate-term breakdown below support defined by the January low,” Fairlead Strategies managing director Katie Stockton tells <i>Barron’s</i>. Stockton holds a CMT, or chartered market technician designation.</p><p>The January low was about $792. Tesla stock closed below that in mid-May. “The breakdown gives the chart the look of a “double-top” formation, and our long-term gauges suggest the downtrend may keep hold through the summer months,” adds Stockton.</p><p>A double-top is, essentially, an “M” in the stock chart. Tesla stock hit $1,200 early in the year and almost $1,150 in April. Then it started dropping, which is a bearish sign to technical traders.</p><p>Stockton says support for the stock looks to be in the $540 range. That is down another 19%. Whether or not shares ever get there is dependent on a number of things, including Shanghai production, earnings and, of course, whatever the market does.</p><p>Fundamentals rule the day in the long run, but charts tell investors a lot about what is going on fundamentally—and what is going on with investor sentiment.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Has Fallen Below $700. Why $540 Might Be Next.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Has Fallen Below $700. Why $540 Might Be Next.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 23:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-below-700-investors-musk-51653314565?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundamental investors might want to note.Coming into Monday trading, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) shares are off ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-below-700-investors-musk-51653314565?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-below-700-investors-musk-51653314565?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133893720","content_text":"Tesla stock has been badly battered in recent weeks. It’s breaking key support levels that fundamental investors might want to note.Coming into Monday trading, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) shares are off about 38% since the end of March. The S&P 500 is down about 14% over that span. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 20%.Pretty much everything has gone wrong for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors in the past few weeks. The company’s most productive plant in Shanghai was shut and is now operating at reduced capacity because of Covid-19 lockdowns in China. Reuters reported Monday that adding more employees to increase production is being pushed out a few days.The delay might be why Tesla stock is down in early trading Monday. A documentary on Hulu produced by the New York Times about Tesla’s driver assistance features probably isn’t helping either. The documentary gives the impression Tesla’s system isn’t as safe as other systems. An accident from 2016 is featured prominently. Tesla’s system was exonerated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in that incident. Tesla, for its part, produces quarterly safety reports that indicate Teslas are some of the safest vehicles on the roads, and says its driver assistance features required driver supervision 100% of the time.Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment about Shanghai production or the documentary.Tesla stock has fallen 0.5% at 11 a.m. Monday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively, to start at week.Then there is the market selloff and CEO Elon Musk’s potential purchase of Twitter (TWTR), which has been a distraction for investors and led to Musk selling a large block of Tesla stock to help finance his deal.Inflation in hurting too. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan, for instance, downgraded General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) stock, and cut his Tesla price target in mid-May, after coming to the conclusion that the prices for battery materials, such as lithium, would be elevated for years to come.All the bad news has left Tesla stock trading about 28% below its 50-day moving average and 27% below its 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average, at about $922 a share is still higher than the 200-day average of about $913.The crossing of moving averages is one sign traders look for. The 50 going below the 200 is a bad sign. A few more days of trading like recent returns and investors will have to deal with that along with everything else.Tesla “has confirmed an intermediate-term breakdown below support defined by the January low,” Fairlead Strategies managing director Katie Stockton tells Barron’s. Stockton holds a CMT, or chartered market technician designation.The January low was about $792. Tesla stock closed below that in mid-May. “The breakdown gives the chart the look of a “double-top” formation, and our long-term gauges suggest the downtrend may keep hold through the summer months,” adds Stockton.A double-top is, essentially, an “M” in the stock chart. Tesla stock hit $1,200 early in the year and almost $1,150 in April. Then it started dropping, which is a bearish sign to technical traders.Stockton says support for the stock looks to be in the $540 range. That is down another 19%. Whether or not shares ever get there is dependent on a number of things, including Shanghai production, earnings and, of course, whatever the market does.Fundamentals rule the day in the long run, but charts tell investors a lot about what is going on fundamentally—and what is going on with investor sentiment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020906052,"gmtCreate":1652554495777,"gmtModify":1676535119168,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020906052","repostId":"612550160","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612550160,"gmtCreate":1652421722350,"gmtModify":1676533100050,"author":{"id":"3570520143164987","authorId":"3570520143164987","name":"汽车大事记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c2ea1d1a7d131cd882c3b8b3e7d557c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570520143164987","authorIdStr":"3570520143164987"},"themes":[],"title":"對標寶馬X5,蔚來ES7申報圖曝光,或50萬元起售","htmlText":"5月13日,工信部發布了蔚來ES7的申報信息。新車定位中大型5座SUV,基於NT2.0技術平臺打造而來,並有望在今年年內交付,售價或將臨近50萬元。外觀方面,新車採用了蔚來家族最新的 X-Bar 設計語言,前臉封閉式進氣格柵彰顯新能源身份,同時兩側依舊採用家族式的分體式頭燈設計,其中上方燈源爲 LED 日間行車燈。車身側面部分,蔚來ES7採用了上下分色的懸浮式車頂設計,跟目前在售的ES6和ES8比較相似。車身尺寸方面,長寬高分別爲:4912mm、1987mm、1720mm,軸距爲2960mm。另外,蔚來ES7的輪胎規格還將有255/50 R20、265/45 R21可選。配置方面,新車或將同樣標配NT2.0自動駕駛硬件、7.1.4沉浸聲系統、空氣懸掛、電吸門以及座椅按摩等功能。在動力續航方面,蔚來ES7採用前後雙電機四驅佈局,其前後電機最大功率分別爲180kW、300kW,系統總功率爲480kW,總峯值扭矩達到了850N·m;此外,新車將搭載75kWh的三元鐵鋰以及100kWh的三元鋰電池,預計其CLTC工況續航里程分別在480km、600km左右。0-100km/h的加速能力將在4秒以內,最高車速200km/h。值得一提的是,新車在智能化水平與ET5和ET7兩款車保持一致,同時還將與進口寶馬X5以及保時捷Cayenne進行對標。","listText":"5月13日,工信部發布了蔚來ES7的申報信息。新車定位中大型5座SUV,基於NT2.0技術平臺打造而來,並有望在今年年內交付,售價或將臨近50萬元。外觀方面,新車採用了蔚來家族最新的 X-Bar 設計語言,前臉封閉式進氣格柵彰顯新能源身份,同時兩側依舊採用家族式的分體式頭燈設計,其中上方燈源爲 LED 日間行車燈。車身側面部分,蔚來ES7採用了上下分色的懸浮式車頂設計,跟目前在售的ES6和ES8比較相似。車身尺寸方面,長寬高分別爲:4912mm、1987mm、1720mm,軸距爲2960mm。另外,蔚來ES7的輪胎規格還將有255/50 R20、265/45 R21可選。配置方面,新車或將同樣標配NT2.0自動駕駛硬件、7.1.4沉浸聲系統、空氣懸掛、電吸門以及座椅按摩等功能。在動力續航方面,蔚來ES7採用前後雙電機四驅佈局,其前後電機最大功率分別爲180kW、300kW,系統總功率爲480kW,總峯值扭矩達到了850N·m;此外,新車將搭載75kWh的三元鐵鋰以及100kWh的三元鋰電池,預計其CLTC工況續航里程分別在480km、600km左右。0-100km/h的加速能力將在4秒以內,最高車速200km/h。值得一提的是,新車在智能化水平與ET5和ET7兩款車保持一致,同時還將與進口寶馬X5以及保時捷Cayenne進行對標。","text":"5月13日,工信部發布了蔚來ES7的申報信息。新車定位中大型5座SUV,基於NT2.0技術平臺打造而來,並有望在今年年內交付,售價或將臨近50萬元。外觀方面,新車採用了蔚來家族最新的 X-Bar 設計語言,前臉封閉式進氣格柵彰顯新能源身份,同時兩側依舊採用家族式的分體式頭燈設計,其中上方燈源爲 LED 日間行車燈。車身側面部分,蔚來ES7採用了上下分色的懸浮式車頂設計,跟目前在售的ES6和ES8比較相似。車身尺寸方面,長寬高分別爲:4912mm、1987mm、1720mm,軸距爲2960mm。另外,蔚來ES7的輪胎規格還將有255/50 R20、265/45 R21可選。配置方面,新車或將同樣標配NT2.0自動駕駛硬件、7.1.4沉浸聲系統、空氣懸掛、電吸門以及座椅按摩等功能。在動力續航方面,蔚來ES7採用前後雙電機四驅佈局,其前後電機最大功率分別爲180kW、300kW,系統總功率爲480kW,總峯值扭矩達到了850N·m;此外,新車將搭載75kWh的三元鐵鋰以及100kWh的三元鋰電池,預計其CLTC工況續航里程分別在480km、600km左右。0-100km/h的加速能力將在4秒以內,最高車速200km/h。值得一提的是,新車在智能化水平與ET5和ET7兩款車保持一致,同時還將與進口寶馬X5以及保時捷Cayenne進行對標。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2b4308cc14162407f6831cfd3e8ab2","width":"1282","height":"856"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612550160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075970373,"gmtCreate":1658137717792,"gmtModify":1676536110955,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075970373","repostId":"1148974307","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148974307","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658111581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148974307?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 10:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"太卷了!券商一哥拆了特斯拉,写了94页报告","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148974307","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。</blockquote><p>卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......</p><p>继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3,并写了一份94页的研报。</p><p>耗时两个月,中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。</p><p>中信证券称:</p><blockquote>希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析,展现特斯拉作为一家全球头部汽车企业对汽车智能电动化的思考,以期厘清后续产业发展的可能方向,更好地支持相关决策。</blockquote><p>通过拆解,中信证券对特斯拉的E/E架构、三电、热管理、车身等进行了详细深入地分析。</p><p>域控制器架构</p><p>据中信证券,E/E架构由分布式转向域控制结构,软硬件实现解耦,是软件定义汽车的关键,特斯拉的Model3是域控架构的引领者。</p><p><b>1)车身域:前左右三个车身采用位置分区而非功能分区,意在降低布线难度,大量采用HSD替代继电器;</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>前车身域控制器的位置在前舱,这个位置理论上来说遇到的碰撞概率要更高,因此采用铝合金的保护外壳,而左右车身域控制器由于在乘用舱内,遇到外界碰撞的概率较低,保护外壳均采用塑料结构:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e3ec0d88244cf0ba05df76dbf12e5\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2)座舱域:将T-BOX集成到座舱域控制器,同时采用了Intel的A3950芯片,思路更接近游戏平台而非手机;</b></p><p>座舱域是用户体验的重要组成部分,特斯拉的座舱控制平台也在不断进化中。中信证券本次拆解的特斯拉model3 2020款采用的是第二代座舱域控制器(MCU2):</p><blockquote>MCU2由两块电路板构成,一块是主板,另一块是固定在主板上的一块小型无线通信电路板(图中粉色框所示)。这一块通信电路板包含了LTE模组、以太网控制芯片、天线接口等,相当于传统汽车中用于对外无线通信的T-box,此次将其集成在MCU中,能够节约空间和成本。我们本次拆解的2020款model3采用了Telit的LTE模组,在2021款以后特斯拉将无线模组供应商切换成移远通信。</blockquote><blockquote>MCU2的主板采用了双面PCB板,正面主要布局各种网络相关芯片,例如Intel和Marvell的以太网芯片,Telit的LTE模组,TI的视频串行器等。正面的另一个重要作用是提供对外接口,如蓝牙/WiFi/LTE的天线接口、摄像头输入输出接口、音频接口、USB接口、以太网接口等。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e974436a2dc5b19a849251a7c210317d\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote>而MCU2的背面更为重要,其核心是一颗IntelAtomA3950芯片,搭配总计4GB的Micron内存和同样是Micron提供的64GBeMMC存储芯片。此外还有LGInnotek提供的WiFi/蓝牙模块等。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f06009817e03dc2d31a3f14a908f486\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p><b>3)驾驶域:双FSD芯片,NPU在同等面积下相比Orin有更高的性价比,采用Linux操作系统更适配AI大模型;</b></p><p>特斯拉的另一个重要特色就是其智能驾驶,这部分功能是通过其自动驾驶域控制器(AP)来执行的。本部分的核心在于特斯拉自主开发的FSD芯片,其余配置则与当前其他自动驾驶控制器方案没有本质区别:</p><blockquote>在model3所用的HW3.0版本的AP中,配备两颗FSD芯片,每颗配置4个三星2GB内存颗粒,单FSD总计8GB,同时每颗FSD配备一片东芝的32GB闪存以及一颗Spansion的64MBNORflash用于启动。网络方面,AP控制器内部包含Marvell的以太网交换机和物理层收发器,此外还有TI的高速CAN收发器。对于自动驾驶来说,定位也十分重要,因此配备了一个Ublox的GPS定位模块。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9938c812944cab9e51cd6ed7319bc668\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760b93bcd8e51158df569a11580ab6dc\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>为了实现自动驾驶,特斯拉提出了一整套以视觉为基础,以FSD芯片为核心的解决方案:</p><blockquote>其外围传感器主要包含12个超声传感器(Valeo)、8个摄像头(风挡玻璃顶3个前视,B柱2个拍摄侧前方,前翼子板2个后视,车尾1个后视摄像头,以及1个DMS摄像头)、1个毫米波雷达(大陆)。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4836c623d8b2cd73bb02956dcd6b24e3\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote>其最核心的前视三目摄像头包含中间的主摄像头以及两侧的长焦镜头和广角镜头,形成不同视野范围的搭配,三个摄像头用的是相同的安森美图像传感器。</blockquote><blockquote>毫米波雷达放置于车头处车标附近,包含一块电路板和一块天线板。该毫米波雷达内部采用的是一颗Freescale控制芯片以及一颗TI的稳压电源管理芯片。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b9d7b28727b0711f5b6eabbf28ff96d\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p><b>4)电控域:Model3首创采用48颗SiC MOSFET替代了84颗IGBT,体积、功耗大幅减小;</b></p><p>据中信证券,Model3为第一款采用全SiC功率模块电机控制器的纯电动汽车,开创SiC应用的先河:</p><blockquote>Model3所用的SiC型号为意法半导体的ST GK026。在相同功率等级下,这款SiC模块采用激光焊接将SiC MOSFET、输入母排和输出三相铜进行连接,封装尺寸也明显小于硅模块,并且开关损耗降低75%。采用SiC模块替代IGBT模块,其系统效率可以提高5%左右,芯片数量及总面积也均有所减少。如果仍采用Model X的IGBT,则需要54-60颗IGBT。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8cf1eba6f099b4490b34c7dfcaee3c0\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>5)动力域:BMS共管理2976节21700电池,强大的软件能力实现每节电池充放电的一致性。</p><p>Model3作为电动车,电能和电池的管理十分重要,而负责管理电池组的<b>BMS</b>是一个高难度产品:</p><blockquote>主控板负责管理所有BMS相关芯片,共设置7组对外接口,包含了对充电控制器(CP)、能量转换系统(PCS)的控制信号,以及到采样板(BMB)的信号,另外还包含专门的电流电压采集信号。电路板上包含高压隔离电源、采样电路等电路模块。元器件方面,有Freescale和TI的单片机,以及运放、参考电压源、隔离器、数据采样芯片等。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b587536f0b9997eb043397e683a0abb4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>在BMS的控制下,具体对电池组进行监测的是BMB电路板,对于特斯拉model3而言:</p><blockquote>共有4个电池组,每一组配备一个BMB电路板,并且4个电路板的电路布局各不相同,彼此之间可以很容易地利用电路板上的编号进行区别,并且按照顺序用菊花链连接在一起,在1号板和4号板引出菊花链连接到主控板的P5和P6接口。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95ea719844ddd6929d8848c4bbdd2142\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>线束和连接器</p><p>1)线束:中信证券测算线束单车价值量约2000元,高压线束是新能源汽车的主要增量,Model3为了轻量化开始用铝替代铜,低压数据线在域控化进程下将有所减少;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dbee6fccc6188cc23be8a636c09e9d1\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02522a025888fa0b55934800991bc33\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)连接器:电动化带来高压连接器增量,智能化带来高速连接器需求,TE(泰科)是Model3的核心供应商,国产厂商有望取得突破。</p><p>在动力电池—电驱高压线束的连接器上,<b>Model3</b>采用的是<b>TE</b>的<b>HC Stak 25:</b></p><blockquote>其结构和功能与HC Stak 35类似,不同点在于尺寸的大小,可以看到,HC Stak 25比HC Stak 35更小,因此HC Stak 25插座端的端子是20片DEFCON端子组成(HC Stak 35为35片),不同的型号共用相同的连接器端子。连接器端子通过数量堆叠的变化能够快速完成不同型号的组装,这体现了连接器模块化生产带来的成本管控优势。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ce3149504873c7d267762efc6fba53\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>电池:特斯拉代际技术领先,4680和CTC是后续发展方向</p><p>1)电池设计核心理念在于提升比能量:由小模组到大模组再到无模组CTC,电芯尺寸由1865到2170再到4680,核心趋势都是减少电池包中非能量的结构件数量,降低成本减少重量,提升续航里程。</p><p>据中信证券,Model3电池包采用4块大模组,与同期的iD.4 X,宝马iX3的电池包相比,采用大模组技术,集成度更高,内部布局更为整洁,电池包技术目前仍处于领先地位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23dabb7e95eaba19611c9fbd3810f29\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)4680电池的价值及变化:4680通过全极耳、高镍高硅、干电极、CTC的组合,实现了“能量密度高、倍率高、成本低”的不可能三角。随着模组内电池数量增加、快充需求提升,对于电池包的冷却、导热阻燃要求提升,电池包内冷却管数量增加、冷管长度减少,增加灌封、防火泡棉,保障电池包热稳定性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df353f7deb14b1e3481ccc22db2f2a7a\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>三电与热管理:三电集成度不断提高,热管理率先实现全域打通。</p><p>1)三合一提升集成度,双电机实现优势互补:Model 3/Y上驱动电机、电机控制器、变速箱三者合一,集成度相比Model S/X提高,同时“小三电”和电池包集成,结构紧凑成本更低;单电机版本由感应电机向永磁电机演变,双电机版本向前感应电机后永磁电机布置演进,两种电机在高速低速区优势互补。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb1406d1dc031a4d940e03c4f6f676f2\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)热管理全域打通,大大提升能量利用效率:热管理上,通过四通阀、八通阀的应用,由各部分独立的回路,向空调、电池系统、动力系统打通的整车热管理升级,整车热源集成,提升系统的能量利用效率。特斯拉的三电与热管理系统在高集成度方面保持领先,其示范作用将引领行业追赶升级与二次创新。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b079e0e13760c45d4172f14f7baa31dd\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>汽车车身:轻量化需求铝车身一体压铸成趋势,消费升级天幕玻璃、智能车灯变潮流</p><p>1)车身:轻量化以满足节能及提高续航要求,以铝代钢是最佳选择,并从Model Y开始进行后车身的一体压铸;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824c486f4801101f96cc3ed4c8a775ca\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2)车灯:Model3外饰搭配兼具科技感和美感,车灯选用矩阵式LED灯源;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b296677f6ceb659eef22a35c43daf3a\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>3)汽车玻璃:Model3天幕引领行业趋势,渗透率有望不断提升;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e952c54e259cb11d491a29a696a968\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>4)底盘:采用线控底盘,是高级别自动驾驶必由之路。</p><p>据中信证券,<b>Model 3</b>底盘逐步实现线控化:</p><blockquote>经过对Model 3底盘结构的拆解,我们看到:悬架方面,特斯拉全车型均采用前轮双叉臂式独立悬架搭配后轮多连杆式独立悬架的配置,未配置空气悬架;制动系统方面,特斯拉车系使用最前沿技术,即线控制动系统Ibooster;转向系统方面,Model3仍沿用传统的电动助力转向。</blockquote><blockquote>线控底盘是实现自动驾驶<b>SAEL3</b>的“执行”基石。自动驾驶系统共分为感知、决策、控制和执行四个部分,其中底盘系统属于自动驾驶中的“执行”机构,是最终实现自动驾驶的核心功能模块。L3及L3以上更高级别自动驾驶的实现离不开底盘执行机构的快速响应和精确执行,以达到和上层的感知、决策和控制的高度协同。而底盘系统的升级也意味着其中驱动系统、制动系统和转向系统等功能模块的升级。所以,线控底盘作为更高级别自动驾驶的执行基石,是发展自动驾驶的具体抓手。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28e1239e7886002c8d3f9a3f999c049\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n太卷了!券商一哥拆了特斯拉,写了94页报告\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-18 10:33 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3,并写了一份94页的研报。耗时两个月,中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。中信证券称:希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcaee1d0a80c502e4b0095b3c6d47cdb","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665028","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1148974307","content_text":"没拆过车,都不好意思说自己是电车分析师。卖方分析师“卷无止尽”......继上个月海通国际拆了一台比亚迪“元”,用87页研报展示汽车零部件的详细细节后,“券商一哥”中信证券拆了一台特斯拉Model 3,并写了一份94页的研报。耗时两个月,中信证券研究部TMT和汽车团队协同多家公司和机构对Model3标准续航版进行了完整的拆解。中信证券称:希望通过对特斯拉Model3这一智能电动的标杆车型的分析,展现特斯拉作为一家全球头部汽车企业对汽车智能电动化的思考,以期厘清后续产业发展的可能方向,更好地支持相关决策。通过拆解,中信证券对特斯拉的E/E架构、三电、热管理、车身等进行了详细深入地分析。域控制器架构据中信证券,E/E架构由分布式转向域控制结构,软硬件实现解耦,是软件定义汽车的关键,特斯拉的Model3是域控架构的引领者。1)车身域:前左右三个车身采用位置分区而非功能分区,意在降低布线难度,大量采用HSD替代继电器;前车身域控制器的位置在前舱,这个位置理论上来说遇到的碰撞概率要更高,因此采用铝合金的保护外壳,而左右车身域控制器由于在乘用舱内,遇到外界碰撞的概率较低,保护外壳均采用塑料结构:2)座舱域:将T-BOX集成到座舱域控制器,同时采用了Intel的A3950芯片,思路更接近游戏平台而非手机;座舱域是用户体验的重要组成部分,特斯拉的座舱控制平台也在不断进化中。中信证券本次拆解的特斯拉model3 2020款采用的是第二代座舱域控制器(MCU2):MCU2由两块电路板构成,一块是主板,另一块是固定在主板上的一块小型无线通信电路板(图中粉色框所示)。这一块通信电路板包含了LTE模组、以太网控制芯片、天线接口等,相当于传统汽车中用于对外无线通信的T-box,此次将其集成在MCU中,能够节约空间和成本。我们本次拆解的2020款model3采用了Telit的LTE模组,在2021款以后特斯拉将无线模组供应商切换成移远通信。MCU2的主板采用了双面PCB板,正面主要布局各种网络相关芯片,例如Intel和Marvell的以太网芯片,Telit的LTE模组,TI的视频串行器等。正面的另一个重要作用是提供对外接口,如蓝牙/WiFi/LTE的天线接口、摄像头输入输出接口、音频接口、USB接口、以太网接口等。而MCU2的背面更为重要,其核心是一颗IntelAtomA3950芯片,搭配总计4GB的Micron内存和同样是Micron提供的64GBeMMC存储芯片。此外还有LGInnotek提供的WiFi/蓝牙模块等。3)驾驶域:双FSD芯片,NPU在同等面积下相比Orin有更高的性价比,采用Linux操作系统更适配AI大模型;特斯拉的另一个重要特色就是其智能驾驶,这部分功能是通过其自动驾驶域控制器(AP)来执行的。本部分的核心在于特斯拉自主开发的FSD芯片,其余配置则与当前其他自动驾驶控制器方案没有本质区别:在model3所用的HW3.0版本的AP中,配备两颗FSD芯片,每颗配置4个三星2GB内存颗粒,单FSD总计8GB,同时每颗FSD配备一片东芝的32GB闪存以及一颗Spansion的64MBNORflash用于启动。网络方面,AP控制器内部包含Marvell的以太网交换机和物理层收发器,此外还有TI的高速CAN收发器。对于自动驾驶来说,定位也十分重要,因此配备了一个Ublox的GPS定位模块。为了实现自动驾驶,特斯拉提出了一整套以视觉为基础,以FSD芯片为核心的解决方案:其外围传感器主要包含12个超声传感器(Valeo)、8个摄像头(风挡玻璃顶3个前视,B柱2个拍摄侧前方,前翼子板2个后视,车尾1个后视摄像头,以及1个DMS摄像头)、1个毫米波雷达(大陆)。其最核心的前视三目摄像头包含中间的主摄像头以及两侧的长焦镜头和广角镜头,形成不同视野范围的搭配,三个摄像头用的是相同的安森美图像传感器。毫米波雷达放置于车头处车标附近,包含一块电路板和一块天线板。该毫米波雷达内部采用的是一颗Freescale控制芯片以及一颗TI的稳压电源管理芯片。4)电控域:Model3首创采用48颗SiC MOSFET替代了84颗IGBT,体积、功耗大幅减小;据中信证券,Model3为第一款采用全SiC功率模块电机控制器的纯电动汽车,开创SiC应用的先河:Model3所用的SiC型号为意法半导体的ST GK026。在相同功率等级下,这款SiC模块采用激光焊接将SiC MOSFET、输入母排和输出三相铜进行连接,封装尺寸也明显小于硅模块,并且开关损耗降低75%。采用SiC模块替代IGBT模块,其系统效率可以提高5%左右,芯片数量及总面积也均有所减少。如果仍采用Model X的IGBT,则需要54-60颗IGBT。5)动力域:BMS共管理2976节21700电池,强大的软件能力实现每节电池充放电的一致性。Model3作为电动车,电能和电池的管理十分重要,而负责管理电池组的BMS是一个高难度产品:主控板负责管理所有BMS相关芯片,共设置7组对外接口,包含了对充电控制器(CP)、能量转换系统(PCS)的控制信号,以及到采样板(BMB)的信号,另外还包含专门的电流电压采集信号。电路板上包含高压隔离电源、采样电路等电路模块。元器件方面,有Freescale和TI的单片机,以及运放、参考电压源、隔离器、数据采样芯片等。在BMS的控制下,具体对电池组进行监测的是BMB电路板,对于特斯拉model3而言:共有4个电池组,每一组配备一个BMB电路板,并且4个电路板的电路布局各不相同,彼此之间可以很容易地利用电路板上的编号进行区别,并且按照顺序用菊花链连接在一起,在1号板和4号板引出菊花链连接到主控板的P5和P6接口。线束和连接器1)线束:中信证券测算线束单车价值量约2000元,高压线束是新能源汽车的主要增量,Model3为了轻量化开始用铝替代铜,低压数据线在域控化进程下将有所减少;2)连接器:电动化带来高压连接器增量,智能化带来高速连接器需求,TE(泰科)是Model3的核心供应商,国产厂商有望取得突破。在动力电池—电驱高压线束的连接器上,Model3采用的是TE的HC Stak 25:其结构和功能与HC Stak 35类似,不同点在于尺寸的大小,可以看到,HC Stak 25比HC Stak 35更小,因此HC Stak 25插座端的端子是20片DEFCON端子组成(HC Stak 35为35片),不同的型号共用相同的连接器端子。连接器端子通过数量堆叠的变化能够快速完成不同型号的组装,这体现了连接器模块化生产带来的成本管控优势。电池:特斯拉代际技术领先,4680和CTC是后续发展方向1)电池设计核心理念在于提升比能量:由小模组到大模组再到无模组CTC,电芯尺寸由1865到2170再到4680,核心趋势都是减少电池包中非能量的结构件数量,降低成本减少重量,提升续航里程。据中信证券,Model3电池包采用4块大模组,与同期的iD.4 X,宝马iX3的电池包相比,采用大模组技术,集成度更高,内部布局更为整洁,电池包技术目前仍处于领先地位。2)4680电池的价值及变化:4680通过全极耳、高镍高硅、干电极、CTC的组合,实现了“能量密度高、倍率高、成本低”的不可能三角。随着模组内电池数量增加、快充需求提升,对于电池包的冷却、导热阻燃要求提升,电池包内冷却管数量增加、冷管长度减少,增加灌封、防火泡棉,保障电池包热稳定性。三电与热管理:三电集成度不断提高,热管理率先实现全域打通。1)三合一提升集成度,双电机实现优势互补:Model 3/Y上驱动电机、电机控制器、变速箱三者合一,集成度相比Model S/X提高,同时“小三电”和电池包集成,结构紧凑成本更低;单电机版本由感应电机向永磁电机演变,双电机版本向前感应电机后永磁电机布置演进,两种电机在高速低速区优势互补。2)热管理全域打通,大大提升能量利用效率:热管理上,通过四通阀、八通阀的应用,由各部分独立的回路,向空调、电池系统、动力系统打通的整车热管理升级,整车热源集成,提升系统的能量利用效率。特斯拉的三电与热管理系统在高集成度方面保持领先,其示范作用将引领行业追赶升级与二次创新。汽车车身:轻量化需求铝车身一体压铸成趋势,消费升级天幕玻璃、智能车灯变潮流1)车身:轻量化以满足节能及提高续航要求,以铝代钢是最佳选择,并从Model Y开始进行后车身的一体压铸;2)车灯:Model3外饰搭配兼具科技感和美感,车灯选用矩阵式LED灯源;3)汽车玻璃:Model3天幕引领行业趋势,渗透率有望不断提升;4)底盘:采用线控底盘,是高级别自动驾驶必由之路。据中信证券,Model 3底盘逐步实现线控化:经过对Model 3底盘结构的拆解,我们看到:悬架方面,特斯拉全车型均采用前轮双叉臂式独立悬架搭配后轮多连杆式独立悬架的配置,未配置空气悬架;制动系统方面,特斯拉车系使用最前沿技术,即线控制动系统Ibooster;转向系统方面,Model3仍沿用传统的电动助力转向。线控底盘是实现自动驾驶SAEL3的“执行”基石。自动驾驶系统共分为感知、决策、控制和执行四个部分,其中底盘系统属于自动驾驶中的“执行”机构,是最终实现自动驾驶的核心功能模块。L3及L3以上更高级别自动驾驶的实现离不开底盘执行机构的快速响应和精确执行,以达到和上层的感知、决策和控制的高度协同。而底盘系统的升级也意味着其中驱动系统、制动系统和转向系统等功能模块的升级。所以,线控底盘作为更高级别自动驾驶的执行基石,是发展自动驾驶的具体抓手。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052189214,"gmtCreate":1655138561739,"gmtModify":1676535568615,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052189214","repostId":"612134228","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612134228,"gmtCreate":1652225400000,"gmtModify":1676533087312,"author":{"id":"3524105778590481","authorId":"3524105778590481","name":"面包财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840a0ca857820031307544fe7310d6af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105778590481","authorIdStr":"3524105778590481"},"themes":[],"title":"【虧損之王】上投摩根爆款基金成“長期投資者噩夢”?成立15年累虧百億元","htmlText":"作爲當年的爆款基金,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄。然而,成立將近15年,該產品已累計虧損近百億元,最新淨值約爲0.86元,基金規模也縮水超九成。 圖1:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)成立以來單位淨值走勢 研究顯示,除了市場大勢的影響,倉位控制、市場判斷等方面的因素導致了這隻QDII基金出海失敗。然而,接近百億元的虧損並不影響上投摩根從中獲得高額的報酬,自成立以來基金合計收取管理費用超20億元。 證監會發布的《關於加快推進公募基金行業高質量發展的意見》指出,督促銷售機構持續完善內部考覈激勵機制,將銷售保有規模、投資者長期收益納入考覈指標體系。以上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)爲鑑,基金於市場高位之際迅速建倉的投研決策是否勤勉盡責?“重首發、輕持營”的現象未來是否應該改變? 首隻“千億”爆款基金 成立15年累虧近百億元 2007年10月,我國面向海外投資渠道QDII正式獲批,第一批“出海”基金共計4只。其中,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)作爲首隻提出以亞太市場爲投資目標區域的股票型投資基金,曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄,配售比爲25.8%。 然而,在創下發行紀錄之後,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)的業績表現卻不盡人意。隨着2008年金融危機的爆發,基金遭受重創。2008年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)跌破0.4元關口,以0.383元的單位淨值進入“三毛”基金行列。 此後,基金表現雖有所回暖,但受創立時高位建倉因素的影響,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)淨值多年在0.6元附近徘徊,至今依然虧損14.37%。這意味着如果一個投資者2007年發行時申購該基金,持有近15年仍虧損超過一成。 圖2:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)業績表現 截至2021年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)以97.31","listText":"作爲當年的爆款基金,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄。然而,成立將近15年,該產品已累計虧損近百億元,最新淨值約爲0.86元,基金規模也縮水超九成。 圖1:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)成立以來單位淨值走勢 研究顯示,除了市場大勢的影響,倉位控制、市場判斷等方面的因素導致了這隻QDII基金出海失敗。然而,接近百億元的虧損並不影響上投摩根從中獲得高額的報酬,自成立以來基金合計收取管理費用超20億元。 證監會發布的《關於加快推進公募基金行業高質量發展的意見》指出,督促銷售機構持續完善內部考覈激勵機制,將銷售保有規模、投資者長期收益納入考覈指標體系。以上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)爲鑑,基金於市場高位之際迅速建倉的投研決策是否勤勉盡責?“重首發、輕持營”的現象未來是否應該改變? 首隻“千億”爆款基金 成立15年累虧近百億元 2007年10月,我國面向海外投資渠道QDII正式獲批,第一批“出海”基金共計4只。其中,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)作爲首隻提出以亞太市場爲投資目標區域的股票型投資基金,曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄,配售比爲25.8%。 然而,在創下發行紀錄之後,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)的業績表現卻不盡人意。隨着2008年金融危機的爆發,基金遭受重創。2008年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)跌破0.4元關口,以0.383元的單位淨值進入“三毛”基金行列。 此後,基金表現雖有所回暖,但受創立時高位建倉因素的影響,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)淨值多年在0.6元附近徘徊,至今依然虧損14.37%。這意味着如果一個投資者2007年發行時申購該基金,持有近15年仍虧損超過一成。 圖2:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)業績表現 截至2021年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)以97.31","text":"作爲當年的爆款基金,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄。然而,成立將近15年,該產品已累計虧損近百億元,最新淨值約爲0.86元,基金規模也縮水超九成。 圖1:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)成立以來單位淨值走勢 研究顯示,除了市場大勢的影響,倉位控制、市場判斷等方面的因素導致了這隻QDII基金出海失敗。然而,接近百億元的虧損並不影響上投摩根從中獲得高額的報酬,自成立以來基金合計收取管理費用超20億元。 證監會發布的《關於加快推進公募基金行業高質量發展的意見》指出,督促銷售機構持續完善內部考覈激勵機制,將銷售保有規模、投資者長期收益納入考覈指標體系。以上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)爲鑑,基金於市場高位之際迅速建倉的投研決策是否勤勉盡責?“重首發、輕持營”的現象未來是否應該改變? 首隻“千億”爆款基金 成立15年累虧近百億元 2007年10月,我國面向海外投資渠道QDII正式獲批,第一批“出海”基金共計4只。其中,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)作爲首隻提出以亞太市場爲投資目標區域的股票型投資基金,曾創下首日認購規模突破千億元的歷史記錄,配售比爲25.8%。 然而,在創下發行紀錄之後,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)的業績表現卻不盡人意。隨着2008年金融危機的爆發,基金遭受重創。2008年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)跌破0.4元關口,以0.383元的單位淨值進入“三毛”基金行列。 此後,基金表現雖有所回暖,但受創立時高位建倉因素的影響,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)淨值多年在0.6元附近徘徊,至今依然虧損14.37%。這意味着如果一個投資者2007年發行時申購該基金,持有近15年仍虧損超過一成。 圖2:上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)業績表現 截至2021年末,上投摩根亞太優勢混合(QDII)以97.31","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6a31832a5d4b3cacf4e1da01efab72","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0160d413cbdb4759bd6270b1e7631d2b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34bab374a9e4ffc80860afff66da1dc","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612134228","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052189602,"gmtCreate":1655138518506,"gmtModify":1676535568614,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052189602","repostId":"612137289","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612137289,"gmtCreate":1652227461941,"gmtModify":1676533087350,"author":{"id":"3499753196034567","authorId":"3499753196034567","name":"薛洪言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734f4c3555940b5c07f9212ada2cd51b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499753196034567","authorIdStr":"3499753196034567"},"themes":[],"title":"市場底部,你在逆向買入嗎?","htmlText":"投資中有句名言,“買在無人問津處,賣在人聲鼎沸時”。意思是指,要在市場冷清時買入佈局,當市場熱度較高時賣出離場,買在低點、賣在高點,確保買賣價差的最大化。當前市場已進入底部,冷冷清清,明星基金不再霸佔熱搜,賬戶收益更是從之前的每日秀曬變成不敢觸碰的傷疤,兩市日成交也一度跌破了7000億。在這個無人問津的時候,作爲投資者的你還在逆向買入嗎?不敢逆向,投資者在怕什麼?就當前的市場環境來說,無論是指數板塊還是個股基金,都比過去的一兩年更便宜。面對越來越低的價格,很多投資者之所以不敢下手,背後的心理既有恐懼,也有貪婪。恐懼的一面是擔心買入之後還會下跌,加重賬面浮虧;貪婪的一面則是期待在更低的價格入手,買得更便宜。客觀來說,這種恐懼和貪婪都是合理的,屬人之常情,但站在投資的視角,這兩種心理又都是不理性的表現,是投資進階的障礙和絆腳石。先說第一個擔心,擔心買入之後還會下跌。這種擔心的潛臺詞是,我想買入之後立馬能夠賺錢,至少不能虧錢。事實上,只有銀行存款、貨幣基金、中低風險銀行理財才能滿足投資者的這種需求,無論是股票還是權益性基金(股票型基金、混合型基金),都是高度波動性資產,不可能給投資者提供這樣的保障。換言之,如果擔心會出現賬面浮虧,投資者就不適合股票和基金投資,要麼徹底遠離市場,要麼說服自己放棄這種不切實際的想法。再說第二個期待,期待以更低的價格買入。這種期待的潛臺詞是,我能預判市場未來走勢,我認爲股價尚未見底,還有得跌。這也是一種不切實際的想法,試想,投資者若有這種本事,之前的賬面浮虧哪裏來的?總不能說,虧損之後才具備了預測市場的本事吧。在極端市場中等待更低的價格,屬於典型的誤區。一則,最低的價格只能事後知道,事前沒有人能夠預知,投資者應把底部視作一個區間,而非單一的價格點;二則,一旦市場走過最恐慌階段開始反轉,反轉的速度往往很快,投資者可能無法買到足夠的數量。因此,若總抱着“買","listText":"投資中有句名言,“買在無人問津處,賣在人聲鼎沸時”。意思是指,要在市場冷清時買入佈局,當市場熱度較高時賣出離場,買在低點、賣在高點,確保買賣價差的最大化。當前市場已進入底部,冷冷清清,明星基金不再霸佔熱搜,賬戶收益更是從之前的每日秀曬變成不敢觸碰的傷疤,兩市日成交也一度跌破了7000億。在這個無人問津的時候,作爲投資者的你還在逆向買入嗎?不敢逆向,投資者在怕什麼?就當前的市場環境來說,無論是指數板塊還是個股基金,都比過去的一兩年更便宜。面對越來越低的價格,很多投資者之所以不敢下手,背後的心理既有恐懼,也有貪婪。恐懼的一面是擔心買入之後還會下跌,加重賬面浮虧;貪婪的一面則是期待在更低的價格入手,買得更便宜。客觀來說,這種恐懼和貪婪都是合理的,屬人之常情,但站在投資的視角,這兩種心理又都是不理性的表現,是投資進階的障礙和絆腳石。先說第一個擔心,擔心買入之後還會下跌。這種擔心的潛臺詞是,我想買入之後立馬能夠賺錢,至少不能虧錢。事實上,只有銀行存款、貨幣基金、中低風險銀行理財才能滿足投資者的這種需求,無論是股票還是權益性基金(股票型基金、混合型基金),都是高度波動性資產,不可能給投資者提供這樣的保障。換言之,如果擔心會出現賬面浮虧,投資者就不適合股票和基金投資,要麼徹底遠離市場,要麼說服自己放棄這種不切實際的想法。再說第二個期待,期待以更低的價格買入。這種期待的潛臺詞是,我能預判市場未來走勢,我認爲股價尚未見底,還有得跌。這也是一種不切實際的想法,試想,投資者若有這種本事,之前的賬面浮虧哪裏來的?總不能說,虧損之後才具備了預測市場的本事吧。在極端市場中等待更低的價格,屬於典型的誤區。一則,最低的價格只能事後知道,事前沒有人能夠預知,投資者應把底部視作一個區間,而非單一的價格點;二則,一旦市場走過最恐慌階段開始反轉,反轉的速度往往很快,投資者可能無法買到足夠的數量。因此,若總抱着“買","text":"投資中有句名言,“買在無人問津處,賣在人聲鼎沸時”。意思是指,要在市場冷清時買入佈局,當市場熱度較高時賣出離場,買在低點、賣在高點,確保買賣價差的最大化。當前市場已進入底部,冷冷清清,明星基金不再霸佔熱搜,賬戶收益更是從之前的每日秀曬變成不敢觸碰的傷疤,兩市日成交也一度跌破了7000億。在這個無人問津的時候,作爲投資者的你還在逆向買入嗎?不敢逆向,投資者在怕什麼?就當前的市場環境來說,無論是指數板塊還是個股基金,都比過去的一兩年更便宜。面對越來越低的價格,很多投資者之所以不敢下手,背後的心理既有恐懼,也有貪婪。恐懼的一面是擔心買入之後還會下跌,加重賬面浮虧;貪婪的一面則是期待在更低的價格入手,買得更便宜。客觀來說,這種恐懼和貪婪都是合理的,屬人之常情,但站在投資的視角,這兩種心理又都是不理性的表現,是投資進階的障礙和絆腳石。先說第一個擔心,擔心買入之後還會下跌。這種擔心的潛臺詞是,我想買入之後立馬能夠賺錢,至少不能虧錢。事實上,只有銀行存款、貨幣基金、中低風險銀行理財才能滿足投資者的這種需求,無論是股票還是權益性基金(股票型基金、混合型基金),都是高度波動性資產,不可能給投資者提供這樣的保障。換言之,如果擔心會出現賬面浮虧,投資者就不適合股票和基金投資,要麼徹底遠離市場,要麼說服自己放棄這種不切實際的想法。再說第二個期待,期待以更低的價格買入。這種期待的潛臺詞是,我能預判市場未來走勢,我認爲股價尚未見底,還有得跌。這也是一種不切實際的想法,試想,投資者若有這種本事,之前的賬面浮虧哪裏來的?總不能說,虧損之後才具備了預測市場的本事吧。在極端市場中等待更低的價格,屬於典型的誤區。一則,最低的價格只能事後知道,事前沒有人能夠預知,投資者應把底部視作一個區間,而非單一的價格點;二則,一旦市場走過最恐慌階段開始反轉,反轉的速度往往很快,投資者可能無法買到足夠的數量。因此,若總抱着“買","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3769941d4a937c6004b15fdfa43aa120","width":"1000","height":"667"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612137289","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059060792,"gmtCreate":1654264708016,"gmtModify":1676535421978,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htm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美國原油期貨上漲1美分,或0.01%,結算價報每桶110.29美元,而布倫特原油期貨上漲0.87美分,或0.7%,結算價報每桶113.42美元。美股收盤方面,道瓊斯工業指數上漲618.34點,或1.98%,至31880.24點;標普500指數上漲72.39點,或1.86%,至3973.75點;納斯達克指數上漲180.66點,或1.59%,至11535.28點。全球市場主要行情一覽美國股市週一收高,銀行股攀升和市場領頭羊科技股反彈推動市場普漲,此前華爾街股市創下20多年前互聯網泡沫破裂以來持續最長的一輪周線下跌。美國三大股指漲幅在1.6%-2.0%,科技巨頭蘋果和微軟反彈帶來最大提振。對利率敏感的銀行股跳漲5.1%,此前美國最大銀行摩根大通上調了本年度利息收入預測。摩根大通股價急升6.2%。“這感覺更像是一次釋然性上漲,而不是投資者情緒發生根本性變化,”Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁Oliver Pursche表示,“整體上看,投資者感","listText":"【早讀】美元續跌助漲金價,但歐美股市反彈限制漲幅,關注歐美PMI週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。週二(5月24日)亞市盤初,市場普遍波動不大,現貨黃金仍在1850上方徘徊。週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。商品收盤方面,美國COMEX黃金期貨結算價上漲0.3%,報1847.8美元。 美國原油期貨上漲1美分,或0.01%,結算價報每桶110.29美元,而布倫特原油期貨上漲0.87美分,或0.7%,結算價報每桶113.42美元。美股收盤方面,道瓊斯工業指數上漲618.34點,或1.98%,至31880.24點;標普500指數上漲72.39點,或1.86%,至3973.75點;納斯達克指數上漲180.66點,或1.59%,至11535.28點。全球市場主要行情一覽美國股市週一收高,銀行股攀升和市場領頭羊科技股反彈推動市場普漲,此前華爾街股市創下20多年前互聯網泡沫破裂以來持續最長的一輪周線下跌。美國三大股指漲幅在1.6%-2.0%,科技巨頭蘋果和微軟反彈帶來最大提振。對利率敏感的銀行股跳漲5.1%,此前美國最大銀行摩根大通上調了本年度利息收入預測。摩根大通股價急升6.2%。“這感覺更像是一次釋然性上漲,而不是投資者情緒發生根本性變化,”Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁Oliver Pursche表示,“整體上看,投資者感","text":"【早讀】美元續跌助漲金價,但歐美股市反彈限制漲幅,關注歐美PMI週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。週二(5月24日)亞市盤初,市場普遍波動不大,現貨黃金仍在1850上方徘徊。週一美元指數延續跌勢,一度創近四周新低至102.03,繼續給金價提供反彈動能,但全球股市反彈,美債收益率上漲,令金價回吐了一部分漲幅。美國原油價格週一變動不大,原因是對經濟可能衰退的擔憂,抵消了即將到來的美國夏季駕駛季和疫情擔憂情緒降溫將帶動燃料需求的前景。商品收盤方面,美國COMEX黃金期貨結算價上漲0.3%,報1847.8美元。 美國原油期貨上漲1美分,或0.01%,結算價報每桶110.29美元,而布倫特原油期貨上漲0.87美分,或0.7%,結算價報每桶113.42美元。美股收盤方面,道瓊斯工業指數上漲618.34點,或1.98%,至31880.24點;標普500指數上漲72.39點,或1.86%,至3973.75點;納斯達克指數上漲180.66點,或1.59%,至11535.28點。全球市場主要行情一覽美國股市週一收高,銀行股攀升和市場領頭羊科技股反彈推動市場普漲,此前華爾街股市創下20多年前互聯網泡沫破裂以來持續最長的一輪周線下跌。美國三大股指漲幅在1.6%-2.0%,科技巨頭蘋果和微軟反彈帶來最大提振。對利率敏感的銀行股跳漲5.1%,此前美國最大銀行摩根大通上調了本年度利息收入預測。摩根大通股價急升6.2%。“這感覺更像是一次釋然性上漲,而不是投資者情緒發生根本性變化,”Wealthspire Advisors高級副總裁Oliver Pursche表示,“整體上看,投資者感","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614928598","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027375418,"gmtCreate":1653981304434,"gmtModify":1676535373570,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027375418","repostId":"614124990","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614124990,"gmtCreate":1653452299310,"gmtModify":1676533146270,"author":{"id":"3536726801818865","authorId":"3536726801818865","name":"不见233","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d7f4ce18e7e23ee069600167f858f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536726801818865","authorIdStr":"3536726801818865"},"themes":[],"title":"從宏觀數據到反彈的判斷","htmlText":"前幾天有讀者問道,還能看漲做多嗎?話說都3100+點,還在這裏侃3000+,是不是被市場打臉了?等等,筆者心平氣和道,侃3000+的時候見《大A進入結構性市場》,當然還有更早的節日帖&星球內容來證實,不過回過頭的3000+,押注的是中報是全年低點···儘管在筆者看來僅僅有少部分行業能put中報全年低點做預期,大部分行業仍然不配,誠然這裏是個拍腦袋的置信度問題,更多的需要高頻數據來證實or證僞。但不妨拋開結果導向的行情,單單從投資方法論-宏觀分析方法而言,只研究一波宏觀趨勢&週期,能否延續,強度如何,觀察微觀市場水滴石穿,日積月累地再度改變或逆轉原有趨勢···嚴謹陳述:宏觀經濟分析方法,只研究趨勢&週期的強度&它們預期時限,深入挖掘其背後邏輯基礎與判斷條件。至於猜點位與博反彈等,則是策略環節的內容。該方法只負責提高把握(術語叫置信度),想要“精準”,下海口預言,宏觀分析方法怕是搶不了算命的飯碗···其次宏觀經濟研究方法,不怕市場打臉,因爲每一次誤判(預期差+系統標準差的問題),都會帶來宏觀研究方法的迭代,去尋找哪些忽視的變量,與低估的風險,從而進一步完善自身體系···回到反彈行情的本身···那四個標準逐步出現了邊際的修復,一是上海復工預期漸行漸近;二是逆週期調節的實打實出現,儘管量不多,但信號管夠;三是海外FED-FOMC的超鷹派,疊加美帝增長預期見頂,拐點信號疊加長短端美債收益率扁平化,緩和了外部環境壓力但單純地將逆週期調節政策萬能,就把政策兜底,必然有效地維穩預期,根據該預期博弈出市場底(這裏隱含了一個前提條件就是市場博弈的是預期差,而非預期,就是買預期賣事實,若不認同這一點,下圖和本段內容都可以跳過)而實際上,忽視了一個大前提有效檢驗,就是有效政策的基本邏輯及其實施過程。回到一般高效市場的邏輯,或者我們常說的貨幣政策&財政政策順利","listText":"前幾天有讀者問道,還能看漲做多嗎?話說都3100+點,還在這裏侃3000+,是不是被市場打臉了?等等,筆者心平氣和道,侃3000+的時候見《大A進入結構性市場》,當然還有更早的節日帖&星球內容來證實,不過回過頭的3000+,押注的是中報是全年低點···儘管在筆者看來僅僅有少部分行業能put中報全年低點做預期,大部分行業仍然不配,誠然這裏是個拍腦袋的置信度問題,更多的需要高頻數據來證實or證僞。但不妨拋開結果導向的行情,單單從投資方法論-宏觀分析方法而言,只研究一波宏觀趨勢&週期,能否延續,強度如何,觀察微觀市場水滴石穿,日積月累地再度改變或逆轉原有趨勢···嚴謹陳述:宏觀經濟分析方法,只研究趨勢&週期的強度&它們預期時限,深入挖掘其背後邏輯基礎與判斷條件。至於猜點位與博反彈等,則是策略環節的內容。該方法只負責提高把握(術語叫置信度),想要“精準”,下海口預言,宏觀分析方法怕是搶不了算命的飯碗···其次宏觀經濟研究方法,不怕市場打臉,因爲每一次誤判(預期差+系統標準差的問題),都會帶來宏觀研究方法的迭代,去尋找哪些忽視的變量,與低估的風險,從而進一步完善自身體系···回到反彈行情的本身···那四個標準逐步出現了邊際的修復,一是上海復工預期漸行漸近;二是逆週期調節的實打實出現,儘管量不多,但信號管夠;三是海外FED-FOMC的超鷹派,疊加美帝增長預期見頂,拐點信號疊加長短端美債收益率扁平化,緩和了外部環境壓力但單純地將逆週期調節政策萬能,就把政策兜底,必然有效地維穩預期,根據該預期博弈出市場底(這裏隱含了一個前提條件就是市場博弈的是預期差,而非預期,就是買預期賣事實,若不認同這一點,下圖和本段內容都可以跳過)而實際上,忽視了一個大前提有效檢驗,就是有效政策的基本邏輯及其實施過程。回到一般高效市場的邏輯,或者我們常說的貨幣政策&財政政策順利","text":"前幾天有讀者問道,還能看漲做多嗎?話說都3100+點,還在這裏侃3000+,是不是被市場打臉了?等等,筆者心平氣和道,侃3000+的時候見《大A進入結構性市場》,當然還有更早的節日帖&星球內容來證實,不過回過頭的3000+,押注的是中報是全年低點···儘管在筆者看來僅僅有少部分行業能put中報全年低點做預期,大部分行業仍然不配,誠然這裏是個拍腦袋的置信度問題,更多的需要高頻數據來證實or證僞。但不妨拋開結果導向的行情,單單從投資方法論-宏觀分析方法而言,只研究一波宏觀趨勢&週期,能否延續,強度如何,觀察微觀市場水滴石穿,日積月累地再度改變或逆轉原有趨勢···嚴謹陳述:宏觀經濟分析方法,只研究趨勢&週期的強度&它們預期時限,深入挖掘其背後邏輯基礎與判斷條件。至於猜點位與博反彈等,則是策略環節的內容。該方法只負責提高把握(術語叫置信度),想要“精準”,下海口預言,宏觀分析方法怕是搶不了算命的飯碗···其次宏觀經濟研究方法,不怕市場打臉,因爲每一次誤判(預期差+系統標準差的問題),都會帶來宏觀研究方法的迭代,去尋找哪些忽視的變量,與低估的風險,從而進一步完善自身體系···回到反彈行情的本身···那四個標準逐步出現了邊際的修復,一是上海復工預期漸行漸近;二是逆週期調節的實打實出現,儘管量不多,但信號管夠;三是海外FED-FOMC的超鷹派,疊加美帝增長預期見頂,拐點信號疊加長短端美債收益率扁平化,緩和了外部環境壓力但單純地將逆週期調節政策萬能,就把政策兜底,必然有效地維穩預期,根據該預期博弈出市場底(這裏隱含了一個前提條件就是市場博弈的是預期差,而非預期,就是買預期賣事實,若不認同這一點,下圖和本段內容都可以跳過)而實際上,忽視了一個大前提有效檢驗,就是有效政策的基本邏輯及其實施過程。回到一般高效市場的邏輯,或者我們常說的貨幣政策&財政政策順利","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75852f881474603c798ab39c22b031e2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d759e12f184316f335abca6d9a1a0d3a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/045a6b7a2954d3c4b3f8bbc0af321f9e"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614124990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027375592,"gmtCreate":1653981290516,"gmtModify":1676535373563,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027375592","repostId":"614124890","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":61412489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| 于斌出品 | 潮起網「於見專欄」手機廠商與軟件開發廠商的關係一直都是相輔相成、相得益彰的存在。硬件配置爲軟件的運行提供平臺,軟件爲硬件提供更多可能,併爲其構建更豐富的生態圈。但近期騰訊卻因應用寶一事,與vivo卻撕破了臉。騰訊作爲國內互聯網行業的先驅者,它的業務幾乎遍佈所有領域;而反觀vivo,主打手機通訊設備,已然有成爲國內手機品牌領頭羊的風采。但如今這兩家行業巨擘公然撕破臉,竟是因爲一個在騰訊業務板塊中看似無痛關的手機應用軟件“應用寶”,其中的緣由,值得我們深思。應用寶,騰訊生態圈的重要一環應用寶是騰訊專爲安卓手機用戶傾力打造的應用獲取平臺,在外行人看來,它似乎僅僅只是一個有着海量應用的下載工具,附帶能協助管理手機、帶來一些額外功能的軟件罷了。但對於騰訊而言,它是一個巨大的生態輸出端口,藉助應用寶,騰訊能創造更多的可能。 應用寶作爲一個應用開放平臺,它能吸引數百萬應用開發者,並藉此打造出更豐富的軟件生態圈。與此同時,應用寶還能巧妙地記錄每一位用戶的偏好與使用習慣,讓數據不再只是一堆冰冷的數字,轉身成爲了每個應用設計者未來開發方向的明燈。而近年來隨着相關政策的頒佈、推行,應用寶在用戶數據收集方面也面臨種種困難,因此在2021年,騰訊便宣佈進行新一輪組織架構和人事調整:在原有的騰訊平臺與內容事業羣的架構下,成立“在線視頻BU”部門。該部門由騰訊視頻、微視、應用寶整合而成,繼續深耕視頻賽道。應用寶作爲一個應用市場,理論上不應屬於這個範疇。可它之所以劃分到了這一賽道中,自然有騰訊的道理。無論是騰訊視頻還是微視、應用寶,近幾年的市場份額都在被打壓。影視行業迎來寒冬、超前點播頻繁引來爭議,都讓騰訊視頻深陷增長困局;而微視更是長期處在一個不溫不火的狀態,哪怕騰訊燒錢燒得風生水起,也無濟於事。應用寶就更是如此。在手機廠商出廠即配置應用市場後,第三方服務平臺就面臨着毀滅性打擊。","listText":"編輯 | 于斌出品 | 潮起網「於見專欄」手機廠商與軟件開發廠商的關係一直都是相輔相成、相得益彰的存在。硬件配置爲軟件的運行提供平臺,軟件爲硬件提供更多可能,併爲其構建更豐富的生態圈。但近期騰訊卻因應用寶一事,與vivo卻撕破了臉。騰訊作爲國內互聯網行業的先驅者,它的業務幾乎遍佈所有領域;而反觀vivo,主打手機通訊設備,已然有成爲國內手機品牌領頭羊的風采。但如今這兩家行業巨擘公然撕破臉,竟是因爲一個在騰訊業務板塊中看似無痛關的手機應用軟件“應用寶”,其中的緣由,值得我們深思。應用寶,騰訊生態圈的重要一環應用寶是騰訊專爲安卓手機用戶傾力打造的應用獲取平臺,在外行人看來,它似乎僅僅只是一個有着海量應用的下載工具,附帶能協助管理手機、帶來一些額外功能的軟件罷了。但對於騰訊而言,它是一個巨大的生態輸出端口,藉助應用寶,騰訊能創造更多的可能。 應用寶作爲一個應用開放平臺,它能吸引數百萬應用開發者,並藉此打造出更豐富的軟件生態圈。與此同時,應用寶還能巧妙地記錄每一位用戶的偏好與使用習慣,讓數據不再只是一堆冰冷的數字,轉身成爲了每個應用設計者未來開發方向的明燈。而近年來隨着相關政策的頒佈、推行,應用寶在用戶數據收集方面也面臨種種困難,因此在2021年,騰訊便宣佈進行新一輪組織架構和人事調整:在原有的騰訊平臺與內容事業羣的架構下,成立“在線視頻BU”部門。該部門由騰訊視頻、微視、應用寶整合而成,繼續深耕視頻賽道。應用寶作爲一個應用市場,理論上不應屬於這個範疇。可它之所以劃分到了這一賽道中,自然有騰訊的道理。無論是騰訊視頻還是微視、應用寶,近幾年的市場份額都在被打壓。影視行業迎來寒冬、超前點播頻繁引來爭議,都讓騰訊視頻深陷增長困局;而微視更是長期處在一個不溫不火的狀態,哪怕騰訊燒錢燒得風生水起,也無濟於事。應用寶就更是如此。在手機廠商出廠即配置應用市場後,第三方服務平臺就面臨着毀滅性打擊。","text":"編輯 | 于斌出品 | 潮起網「於見專欄」手機廠商與軟件開發廠商的關係一直都是相輔相成、相得益彰的存在。硬件配置爲軟件的運行提供平臺,軟件爲硬件提供更多可能,併爲其構建更豐富的生態圈。但近期騰訊卻因應用寶一事,與vivo卻撕破了臉。騰訊作爲國內互聯網行業的先驅者,它的業務幾乎遍佈所有領域;而反觀vivo,主打手機通訊設備,已然有成爲國內手機品牌領頭羊的風采。但如今這兩家行業巨擘公然撕破臉,竟是因爲一個在騰訊業務板塊中看似無痛關的手機應用軟件“應用寶”,其中的緣由,值得我們深思。應用寶,騰訊生態圈的重要一環應用寶是騰訊專爲安卓手機用戶傾力打造的應用獲取平臺,在外行人看來,它似乎僅僅只是一個有着海量應用的下載工具,附帶能協助管理手機、帶來一些額外功能的軟件罷了。但對於騰訊而言,它是一個巨大的生態輸出端口,藉助應用寶,騰訊能創造更多的可能。 應用寶作爲一個應用開放平臺,它能吸引數百萬應用開發者,並藉此打造出更豐富的軟件生態圈。與此同時,應用寶還能巧妙地記錄每一位用戶的偏好與使用習慣,讓數據不再只是一堆冰冷的數字,轉身成爲了每個應用設計者未來開發方向的明燈。而近年來隨着相關政策的頒佈、推行,應用寶在用戶數據收集方面也面臨種種困難,因此在2021年,騰訊便宣佈進行新一輪組織架構和人事調整:在原有的騰訊平臺與內容事業羣的架構下,成立“在線視頻BU”部門。該部門由騰訊視頻、微視、應用寶整合而成,繼續深耕視頻賽道。應用寶作爲一個應用市場,理論上不應屬於這個範疇。可它之所以劃分到了這一賽道中,自然有騰訊的道理。無論是騰訊視頻還是微視、應用寶,近幾年的市場份額都在被打壓。影視行業迎來寒冬、超前點播頻繁引來爭議,都讓騰訊視頻深陷增長困局;而微視更是長期處在一個不溫不火的狀態,哪怕騰訊燒錢燒得風生水起,也無濟於事。應用寶就更是如此。在手機廠商出廠即配置應用市場後,第三方服務平臺就面臨着毀滅性打擊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614124890","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027372639,"gmtCreate":1653980968421,"gmtModify":1676535373547,"author":{"id":"3579241919934209","authorId":"3579241919934209","name":"WYWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579241919934209","authorIdStr":"3579241919934209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027372639","repostId":"9027047837","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9027047837,"gmtCreate":1653955726829,"gmtModify":1676535367803,"author":{"id":"3586915072418371","authorId":"3586915072418371","name":"alexcsb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02b98b9a53bdc70b2b8955a1bb7db4f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586915072418371","authorIdStr":"3586915072418371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.</li></ul><p>It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.</p><p>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.</p><p>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.</p><p><b>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector</b></p><p>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.</p><p>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo</p><p>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.</p><p>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>www.goodcarbadcar.net</p><p><b>Tesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As One</b></p><p>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Page 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.</p><p>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.</p><p>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:</p><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul><p>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.</p><p>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.</p><p>Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Today you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.</p><p>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.</p><p>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.</p><p>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.</p><p>I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.</p><p>At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).</p><p>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.</p><p><b>TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line</b></p><p>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.</p><p>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.</p><p>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.</p><p>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.</p><p>Which Features Come With My Subscription?</p><blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.</i></blockquote><p>The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.</p><p>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.</p><p>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.</p><p>At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?</p><p><b>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care</b></p><p>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.</p><p>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.</p><p>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.</p><p><b>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates</b></p><p>TSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.</p><p>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).</p><p>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.</p><p>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.</p><p>Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.</p><p>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>You're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.</p><p>Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.</p><p>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-08 11:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}