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2021-04-10

Kthxbye

XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening

2021-04-06

Okthxbye

The rise of Archegos-linked stocks widened

2021-07-29

Nice

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2021-06-19

Lol

AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators

2021-04-24

No lol

Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?

2021-04-18

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Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply

2021-04-06

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Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time

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13:17","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"HK, China stocks rebound as Beijing calms panic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195996252","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, July 29 (Reuters) - Hong Kong and China stocks rebounded sharply on Thursday led by the te","content":"<p>SHANGHAI, July 29 (Reuters) - Hong Kong and China stocks rebounded sharply on Thursday led by the tech sector, after Beijing moved to soothe investor panic over mounting regulatory risks.</p>\n<p>China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index gained 1.4% by the midday break but is still down over 5% so far this week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, reducing the week’s loss to 4.3%.</p>\n<p>In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index jumped 2.7%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index, the target of heavy selling recently, soared 6.8%, but is still down 5.3% for the week.</p>\n<p>Global investors had dumped shares in Chinese companies after Beijing published rules over the weekend that ban for-profit tutoring in core school subjects. China has also launched an anti-monopoly campaign against tech giants.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday night, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting with executives of top global investment banks in a bid to calm financial markets nerves, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.</p>\n<p>In what appears to be a coordinated effort, state media including Xinhua, the China Securities Journal and the China Daily all published commentaries arguing local stock and bond markets remain attractive to investors, and that the country was still committed to opening up.</p>\n<p>Also aiding sentiment, China’s central bank injected more liquidity into the banking system via open market operations on Thursday than it did during the past month’s daily operations.</p>\n<p>“Market despair creates buying opportunities,” said Xie Chen, fund manager at Shanghai Jianwen Investment Management Co.</p>\n<p>“In the darkest time, you must be convinced that the sun will rise tomorrow,” said Xie, who bought Tencent shares during the sell-off earlier in the week.</p>\n<p>“Fear overdone,” Citi said in a note on Thursday, adding that recent tightening against after-school tutoring and internet firms will lead to healthier, rational development in the long-term.</p>\n<p>Tech and education shares, which suffered the brunt of the sell-off earlier this week, staged a sharp rebound.</p>\n<p>Shenzhen’s start-up board ChiNext jumped 4.1%, recouping much of this week’s savage losses, and an index tracking China and overseas-listed education stocks surged 4.2%.</p>\n<p>But China’s property shares fell amid lingering concerns over the industry’s financial health, while airline stocks were weak amid signs China’s COVID cases are on the rise.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HK, China stocks rebound as Beijing calms panic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHK, China stocks rebound as Beijing calms panic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 13:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/china-stocks-midday/hk-china-stocks-rebound-as-beijing-calms-panic-idUSL1N2P507O><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SHANGHAI, July 29 (Reuters) - Hong Kong and China stocks rebounded sharply on Thursday led by the tech sector, after Beijing moved to soothe investor panic over mounting regulatory risks.\nChina’s blue...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/china-stocks-midday/hk-china-stocks-rebound-as-beijing-calms-panic-idUSL1N2P507O\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/china-stocks-midday/hk-china-stocks-rebound-as-beijing-calms-panic-idUSL1N2P507O","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195996252","content_text":"SHANGHAI, July 29 (Reuters) - Hong Kong and China stocks rebounded sharply on Thursday led by the tech sector, after Beijing moved to soothe investor panic over mounting regulatory risks.\nChina’s blue-chip CSI300 Index gained 1.4% by the midday break but is still down over 5% so far this week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, reducing the week’s loss to 4.3%.\nIn Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index jumped 2.7%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index, the target of heavy selling recently, soared 6.8%, but is still down 5.3% for the week.\nGlobal investors had dumped shares in Chinese companies after Beijing published rules over the weekend that ban for-profit tutoring in core school subjects. China has also launched an anti-monopoly campaign against tech giants.\nOn Wednesday night, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting with executives of top global investment banks in a bid to calm financial markets nerves, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\nIn what appears to be a coordinated effort, state media including Xinhua, the China Securities Journal and the China Daily all published commentaries arguing local stock and bond markets remain attractive to investors, and that the country was still committed to opening up.\nAlso aiding sentiment, China’s central bank injected more liquidity into the banking system via open market operations on Thursday than it did during the past month’s daily operations.\n“Market despair creates buying opportunities,” said Xie Chen, fund manager at Shanghai Jianwen Investment Management Co.\n“In the darkest time, you must be convinced that the sun will rise tomorrow,” said Xie, who bought Tencent shares during the sell-off earlier in the week.\n“Fear overdone,” Citi said in a note on Thursday, adding that recent tightening against after-school tutoring and internet firms will lead to healthier, rational development in the long-term.\nTech and education shares, which suffered the brunt of the sell-off earlier this week, staged a sharp rebound.\nShenzhen’s start-up board ChiNext jumped 4.1%, recouping much of this week’s savage losses, and an index tracking China and overseas-listed education stocks surged 4.2%.\nBut China’s property shares fell amid lingering concerns over the industry’s financial health, while airline stocks were weak amid signs China’s COVID cases are on the rise.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162767590,"gmtCreate":1624076356710,"gmtModify":1703828354434,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162767590","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131310015?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>\n <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>\n <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>\n <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p>\n<p><b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p>\n<p>Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p>\n<p>Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p>\n<p><b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p>\n<p>I start with the key assumptions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p>\n<p><i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p>\n<p><b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p>\n<p><b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p>\n<p><b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p>\n<p>We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>\n <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p>\n<p>We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p>\n<p><i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p>\n<p><b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p>\n<p>Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p>\n<p>Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p>\n<blockquote>\n “[\n <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Pretty clever, no? No:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Uh oh. What now?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ouch.</p>\n<p><b>Buyers beware</b></p>\n<p>As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p>\n<p>AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372537189,"gmtCreate":1619226725341,"gmtModify":1704721488351,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No lol","listText":"No lol","text":"No lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372537189","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166519043","pubTimestamp":1619192700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166519043?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166519043","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.However, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.</li>\n <li>More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.</li>\n <li>It's a high chance that a great number of new plants would be in China which carries plenty of geopolitical risks. The headwinds from the uncertainties could suppress TSLA stock.</li>\n <li>However, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus projections.</li>\n <li>Tesla could consider another stock split to get&nbsp;\"more people in the stock.\" Past experiences suggest the EV titan could do one before the share price hit quadruple-digit again.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59edf6c2b70d6c984dc825b7567439bc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>TSLA stock is poised to rise in line with its business growth</b></p>\n<p>In a recent article titled&nbsp;<i>Who Will Be The Biggest Competitors By 2025</i>, I questioned certain projections regarding Tesla's (TSLA) car sales. Some estimates implied that Tesla would take a lion's share of the EV market despite the rapid increase in the number of competitors.</p>\n<p>By 2025, Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) as well as Chinese smartphone giants Huawei and Xiaomi Corporation (OTC:XIACF)(OTCPK:XIACY). More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles, even as they continue to churn out internal combustion engine-based cars.</p>\n<p>Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla, Inc. needs to build many more factories. Given the effusive praise we have heard from Elon Musk regarding the speed of factory construction and on China in general, we could expect additional new plants to be cited in the populous country. That could add more&nbsp;geopolitical risks&nbsp;to the stock, as SA author John Engle argued.</p>\n<p>Then again, as many readers on Seeking Alpha, analysts, and Cathie Wood have postulated, Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Consequently, Tesla's revenue is projected to rise from $31.54 billion in 2020 to a whopping $388.52 billion on a consensus basis in 2030. That would bring the price-to-sales ratio to a mere 1.84 times on a forward basis.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac352f9c2ac9bac0412ed076c27c75a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>If Tesla did not disappoint the most bullish of the optimists forecasting its revenue to hit $600.7 billion in 2030, its P/S ratio would drop even lower to 1.19 times! You might say, all that sales are wonderful but what does their profitability look like? Well, the analysts believe TSLA would make boatloads of money. The consensus EPS estimate for 2030 is $33.48, a massive jump from the $0.64 it achieved in 2020. If the 2030 EPS estimate is realized, those earnings at today's price would reflect a ratio of 22.2 times, which could be seen as incredibly low.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7650450aa6230d6585a502b571ee3652\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>With EV sales projected by industry consultancy Canalys to remain below 50 percent of the total car sales by 2030, there remains significant growth potential for Tesla to increase its revenue. As such, assuming the analysts are correct, the share price of TSLA will not stay at the present level for the P/S ratio to be just 1.84 times and the P/E ratio at 22.2 times, the share price of TSLA would rise further than where it stands today.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd810d4171606b50d186b8d9bf10bf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\"></p>\n<p>Tesla stock split history: What was Tesla's stock price before the recent split?</p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's share price would continue to rise over the next five to ten years. With that in mind, the question is, will TSLA split again? Before discussing that, let's review Tesla's previous split.</p>\n<p>On August 11, 2020, Tesla&nbsp;announced, after the market closed, that its board approved a five-for-one split of shares to \"make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors.\" This marked Tesla's first-ever split announcement. The stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b22a860341fe3bf36996d737680ddb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"></p>\n<p><b>How did Tesla's most recent stock split affect share prices?</b></p>\n<p>Interestingly, after the split was affected, Tesla stock lost much of the August gains in just a few trading sessions in early September. The share price decline was speculated by some to be due to shareholders paring their holdings since the split had resulted in them holding more TSLA shares. This seems logical as the purpose of the split was to accord shareholders with greater \"liquidity\" over their TSLA holding.</p>\n<p>However, the weakness in Tesla's share price was more likely attributable to a capital-raising exercise&nbsp;announced&nbsp;pre-market on September 1, 2020. Although only up to $5 billion worth of shares representing just over 1 percent of Tesla's market cap were to be sold, investors were probably looking for a trigger to take profit considering that TSLA was running in overbought territory for more than two weeks, according to the relative strength index [RSI] momentum indicator at that time.</p>\n<p>TSLA's strong run upwards had also led to the stock becoming \"overweight\" on many shareholders' portfolios. Ironically, that meant investors, whether individuals or fund managers had to reduce their Tesla holdings to avoid concentration risk. For funds with concentration guidelines or rules, it's not even a choice but a&nbsp;mandatory reduction&nbsp;exercise once the Tesla position became outsized.</p>\n<p>To make matters worse, Tesla stock was subsequently dragged down further into correction territory amid a sell-off by investors of tech favorites and \"all things frothy.\" The share price recovered some grounds quickly but the stock stagnated for a few months thereafter before a&nbsp;powerful wave of EV hypeswept TSLA up again to new heights.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a34d7256fb764f0652d6223057202\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p><b>When will Tesla stock split again?</b></p>\n<p>Although Tesla's share price has pulled back from the peak earlier in the year, it remains much higher than the post-split level last year. At $744.12 at the time of writing, TSLA is 49 percent higher than the $498.32 close on August 31, 2020, the day of the stock split.</p>\n<p>If the past is any reference, Tesla executives did the stock split when the share price was in quadruple-digit. TSLA will need to rise more than 34 percent for that to happen again. As I opined earlier, Tesla stock appears to be poised for further upside. I believe it's more of a question of when, not if, will TSLA hit above $1,000 per share.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, even in the current investing environment where there are platforms allowing the trading of fractional shares, there are still benefits for stocks with smaller prices. One obvious advantage is the impact on psychology, as the mind interprets low prices as \"cheaply valued\" and having room to head north.</p>\n<p>The leadership at Apple must be thinking the same as the folks at Tesla when the company executed its stock split around the same time as the EV giant last August. The share price appreciation from pre-announcement to post-stock split date was less spectacular compared to Tesla but still a hefty 41 percent.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46bd0bed00b03ba1d738fd84c9dfb0dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>Considering that Apple&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a stock split when the share price was much lower at $384.76, it goes to show there's value in considering a split in the stock even without the share price hitting quadruple-digit. Furthermore, AAPL has done this four times before - in 1987, 2000, 2005, and 2014 - when the share prices were all below $1,000. In 1987 and 2005, the stock was even trading at the sub-$100 level when the company did the split.</p>\n<p>Jim Cramer was quoted as saying during an interview last year that Tim Cook explained the 2020 stock split to him, telling him that he wanted \"more people in the stock.\" I suppose that's what Bill Gates and his team thought when the software giant performed eight stock splits from the listing of Microsoft (MSFT) until 1999 as MSFT climbed exponentially during the period. Elon Musk and Tim Cook are the odd couple but I believe the former would agree on having \"more people\" in TSLA stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44957db620e86907bb72e9691bc726e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p><b>Should you buy Tesla now or wait for a split?</b></p>\n<p>Video-streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) announced a seven-for-one stock split in 2015 when its share was around $700 pre-split. NFLX went on to do very well though it's very much due to its business success than a simple cosmetic stock split exercise. The point of bringing this up is that Tesla's share price is around where Netflix's share price was when the split was completed.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cbb0c9bd178401bc6cc863a0934af2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p>Although Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOG) are the odd tech companies trading at quadruple-digit levels, most others are trading in the triple-digit or smaller. With the favorable experience from the previous stock split, Tesla might not want to wait for the share price to hit quadruple-digit again before contemplating another split.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, there is&nbsp;existing literature&nbsp;that reveals a strong correlation between stock splits and \"outstanding stock price performance\", giving Tesla the impetus to do so. Another potential trigger point for Elon Musk to announce a stock split could be when TSLA hit $840 per share. He would be able to claim that the company would do a two-for-one split so that the share price becomes $420 post-split.</p>\n<p>Of course, the share price wouldn't stay flat from the announcement date until the effective date. Nonetheless, the media would have gone into overdrive covering the announcement and speculating about the number's link to weed as well as Elon's past brush with the securities law on his previous take-Tesla-private-at-$420 claim. This would generate plenty of free publicity for the company.</p>\n<p>However, investors should not hang around for a stock split if they are intending to own shares in Tesla. It may not happen and the share price could still zoom upwards on speculations, improving sentiment, or due to business fundamentals.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 23:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.\nMore traditional automakers will also be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1166519043","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.\nMore traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.\nIt's a high chance that a great number of new plants would be in China which carries plenty of geopolitical risks. The headwinds from the uncertainties could suppress TSLA stock.\nHowever, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus projections.\nTesla could consider another stock split to get \"more people in the stock.\" Past experiences suggest the EV titan could do one before the share price hit quadruple-digit again.\n\nPhoto by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nTSLA stock is poised to rise in line with its business growth\nIn a recent article titled Who Will Be The Biggest Competitors By 2025, I questioned certain projections regarding Tesla's (TSLA) car sales. Some estimates implied that Tesla would take a lion's share of the EV market despite the rapid increase in the number of competitors.\nBy 2025, Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) as well as Chinese smartphone giants Huawei and Xiaomi Corporation (OTC:XIACF)(OTCPK:XIACY). More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles, even as they continue to churn out internal combustion engine-based cars.\nEven if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla, Inc. needs to build many more factories. Given the effusive praise we have heard from Elon Musk regarding the speed of factory construction and on China in general, we could expect additional new plants to be cited in the populous country. That could add more geopolitical risks to the stock, as SA author John Engle argued.\nThen again, as many readers on Seeking Alpha, analysts, and Cathie Wood have postulated, Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Consequently, Tesla's revenue is projected to rise from $31.54 billion in 2020 to a whopping $388.52 billion on a consensus basis in 2030. That would bring the price-to-sales ratio to a mere 1.84 times on a forward basis.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Premium\nIf Tesla did not disappoint the most bullish of the optimists forecasting its revenue to hit $600.7 billion in 2030, its P/S ratio would drop even lower to 1.19 times! You might say, all that sales are wonderful but what does their profitability look like? Well, the analysts believe TSLA would make boatloads of money. The consensus EPS estimate for 2030 is $33.48, a massive jump from the $0.64 it achieved in 2020. If the 2030 EPS estimate is realized, those earnings at today's price would reflect a ratio of 22.2 times, which could be seen as incredibly low.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWith EV sales projected by industry consultancy Canalys to remain below 50 percent of the total car sales by 2030, there remains significant growth potential for Tesla to increase its revenue. As such, assuming the analysts are correct, the share price of TSLA will not stay at the present level for the P/S ratio to be just 1.84 times and the P/E ratio at 22.2 times, the share price of TSLA would rise further than where it stands today.\n\nTesla stock split history: What was Tesla's stock price before the recent split?\nIn other words, Tesla's share price would continue to rise over the next five to ten years. With that in mind, the question is, will TSLA split again? Before discussing that, let's review Tesla's previous split.\nOn August 11, 2020, Tesla announced, after the market closed, that its board approved a five-for-one split of shares to \"make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors.\" This marked Tesla's first-ever split announcement. The stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.\n\nHow did Tesla's most recent stock split affect share prices?\nInterestingly, after the split was affected, Tesla stock lost much of the August gains in just a few trading sessions in early September. The share price decline was speculated by some to be due to shareholders paring their holdings since the split had resulted in them holding more TSLA shares. This seems logical as the purpose of the split was to accord shareholders with greater \"liquidity\" over their TSLA holding.\nHowever, the weakness in Tesla's share price was more likely attributable to a capital-raising exercise announced pre-market on September 1, 2020. Although only up to $5 billion worth of shares representing just over 1 percent of Tesla's market cap were to be sold, investors were probably looking for a trigger to take profit considering that TSLA was running in overbought territory for more than two weeks, according to the relative strength index [RSI] momentum indicator at that time.\nTSLA's strong run upwards had also led to the stock becoming \"overweight\" on many shareholders' portfolios. Ironically, that meant investors, whether individuals or fund managers had to reduce their Tesla holdings to avoid concentration risk. For funds with concentration guidelines or rules, it's not even a choice but a mandatory reduction exercise once the Tesla position became outsized.\nTo make matters worse, Tesla stock was subsequently dragged down further into correction territory amid a sell-off by investors of tech favorites and \"all things frothy.\" The share price recovered some grounds quickly but the stock stagnated for a few months thereafter before a powerful wave of EV hypeswept TSLA up again to new heights.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nWhen will Tesla stock split again?\nAlthough Tesla's share price has pulled back from the peak earlier in the year, it remains much higher than the post-split level last year. At $744.12 at the time of writing, TSLA is 49 percent higher than the $498.32 close on August 31, 2020, the day of the stock split.\nIf the past is any reference, Tesla executives did the stock split when the share price was in quadruple-digit. TSLA will need to rise more than 34 percent for that to happen again. As I opined earlier, Tesla stock appears to be poised for further upside. I believe it's more of a question of when, not if, will TSLA hit above $1,000 per share.\nNevertheless, even in the current investing environment where there are platforms allowing the trading of fractional shares, there are still benefits for stocks with smaller prices. One obvious advantage is the impact on psychology, as the mind interprets low prices as \"cheaply valued\" and having room to head north.\nThe leadership at Apple must be thinking the same as the folks at Tesla when the company executed its stock split around the same time as the EV giant last August. The share price appreciation from pre-announcement to post-stock split date was less spectacular compared to Tesla but still a hefty 41 percent.\n\nConsidering that Apple announced a stock split when the share price was much lower at $384.76, it goes to show there's value in considering a split in the stock even without the share price hitting quadruple-digit. Furthermore, AAPL has done this four times before - in 1987, 2000, 2005, and 2014 - when the share prices were all below $1,000. In 1987 and 2005, the stock was even trading at the sub-$100 level when the company did the split.\nJim Cramer was quoted as saying during an interview last year that Tim Cook explained the 2020 stock split to him, telling him that he wanted \"more people in the stock.\" I suppose that's what Bill Gates and his team thought when the software giant performed eight stock splits from the listing of Microsoft (MSFT) until 1999 as MSFT climbed exponentially during the period. Elon Musk and Tim Cook are the odd couple but I believe the former would agree on having \"more people\" in TSLA stock.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nShould you buy Tesla now or wait for a split?\nVideo-streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) announced a seven-for-one stock split in 2015 when its share was around $700 pre-split. NFLX went on to do very well though it's very much due to its business success than a simple cosmetic stock split exercise. The point of bringing this up is that Tesla's share price is around where Netflix's share price was when the split was completed.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nAlthough Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOG) are the odd tech companies trading at quadruple-digit levels, most others are trading in the triple-digit or smaller. With the favorable experience from the previous stock split, Tesla might not want to wait for the share price to hit quadruple-digit again before contemplating another split.\nFurthermore, there is existing literature that reveals a strong correlation between stock splits and \"outstanding stock price performance\", giving Tesla the impetus to do so. Another potential trigger point for Elon Musk to announce a stock split could be when TSLA hit $840 per share. He would be able to claim that the company would do a two-for-one split so that the share price becomes $420 post-split.\nOf course, the share price wouldn't stay flat from the announcement date until the effective date. Nonetheless, the media would have gone into overdrive covering the announcement and speculating about the number's link to weed as well as Elon's past brush with the securities law on his previous take-Tesla-private-at-$420 claim. This would generate plenty of free publicity for the company.\nHowever, investors should not hang around for a stock split if they are intending to own shares in Tesla. It may not happen and the share price could still zoom upwards on speculations, improving sentiment, or due to business fundamentals.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379658139,"gmtCreate":1618732957821,"gmtModify":1704714438893,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379658139","repostId":"1156256429","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346803715,"gmtCreate":1618018407837,"gmtModify":1704705987509,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346803715","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343251987,"gmtCreate":1617720230049,"gmtModify":1704702273738,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343251987","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343253119,"gmtCreate":1617720186131,"gmtModify":1704702272281,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okthxbye","listText":"Okthxbye","text":"Okthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343253119","repostId":"1116564866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":346803715,"gmtCreate":1618018407837,"gmtModify":1704705987509,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346803715","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343253119,"gmtCreate":1617720186131,"gmtModify":1704702272281,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okthxbye","listText":"Okthxbye","text":"Okthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343253119","repostId":"1116564866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116564866","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617720064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116564866?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The rise of Archegos-linked stocks widened","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116564866","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Genshuixue was up 15%,iQIYI was up 8%,Tencent music was up 6%,VIPS was up 5%,Discovery was up 4.7%.","content":"<p>Genshuixue was up 15%,iQIYI was up 8%,Tencent music was up 6%,VIPS was up 5%,Discovery was up 4.7%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The rise of Archegos-linked stocks widened</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe rise of Archegos-linked stocks widened\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-06 22:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Genshuixue was up 15%,iQIYI was up 8%,Tencent music was up 6%,VIPS was up 5%,Discovery was up 4.7%.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116564866","content_text":"Genshuixue was up 15%,iQIYI was up 8%,Tencent music was up 6%,VIPS was up 5%,Discovery was up 4.7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808036570,"gmtCreate":1627542166090,"gmtModify":1703492001795,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808036570","repostId":"1195996252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162767590,"gmtCreate":1624076356710,"gmtModify":1703828354434,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162767590","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131310015?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>\n <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>\n <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>\n <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p>\n<p><b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p>\n<p>Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p>\n<p>Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p>\n<p><b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p>\n<p>I start with the key assumptions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p>\n<p><i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p>\n<p><b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p>\n<p><b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p>\n<p><b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p>\n<p>We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>\n <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p>\n<p>We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p>\n<p><i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p>\n<p><b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p>\n<p>Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p>\n<p>Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p>\n<blockquote>\n “[\n <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Pretty clever, no? No:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Uh oh. What now?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ouch.</p>\n<p><b>Buyers beware</b></p>\n<p>As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p>\n<p>AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372537189,"gmtCreate":1619226725341,"gmtModify":1704721488351,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No lol","listText":"No lol","text":"No lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372537189","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166519043","pubTimestamp":1619192700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166519043?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166519043","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.However, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.</li>\n <li>More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.</li>\n <li>It's a high chance that a great number of new plants would be in China which carries plenty of geopolitical risks. The headwinds from the uncertainties could suppress TSLA stock.</li>\n <li>However, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus projections.</li>\n <li>Tesla could consider another stock split to get&nbsp;\"more people in the stock.\" Past experiences suggest the EV titan could do one before the share price hit quadruple-digit again.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59edf6c2b70d6c984dc825b7567439bc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>TSLA stock is poised to rise in line with its business growth</b></p>\n<p>In a recent article titled&nbsp;<i>Who Will Be The Biggest Competitors By 2025</i>, I questioned certain projections regarding Tesla's (TSLA) car sales. Some estimates implied that Tesla would take a lion's share of the EV market despite the rapid increase in the number of competitors.</p>\n<p>By 2025, Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) as well as Chinese smartphone giants Huawei and Xiaomi Corporation (OTC:XIACF)(OTCPK:XIACY). More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles, even as they continue to churn out internal combustion engine-based cars.</p>\n<p>Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla, Inc. needs to build many more factories. Given the effusive praise we have heard from Elon Musk regarding the speed of factory construction and on China in general, we could expect additional new plants to be cited in the populous country. That could add more&nbsp;geopolitical risks&nbsp;to the stock, as SA author John Engle argued.</p>\n<p>Then again, as many readers on Seeking Alpha, analysts, and Cathie Wood have postulated, Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Consequently, Tesla's revenue is projected to rise from $31.54 billion in 2020 to a whopping $388.52 billion on a consensus basis in 2030. That would bring the price-to-sales ratio to a mere 1.84 times on a forward basis.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac352f9c2ac9bac0412ed076c27c75a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>If Tesla did not disappoint the most bullish of the optimists forecasting its revenue to hit $600.7 billion in 2030, its P/S ratio would drop even lower to 1.19 times! You might say, all that sales are wonderful but what does their profitability look like? Well, the analysts believe TSLA would make boatloads of money. The consensus EPS estimate for 2030 is $33.48, a massive jump from the $0.64 it achieved in 2020. If the 2030 EPS estimate is realized, those earnings at today's price would reflect a ratio of 22.2 times, which could be seen as incredibly low.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7650450aa6230d6585a502b571ee3652\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p>\n<p>With EV sales projected by industry consultancy Canalys to remain below 50 percent of the total car sales by 2030, there remains significant growth potential for Tesla to increase its revenue. As such, assuming the analysts are correct, the share price of TSLA will not stay at the present level for the P/S ratio to be just 1.84 times and the P/E ratio at 22.2 times, the share price of TSLA would rise further than where it stands today.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd810d4171606b50d186b8d9bf10bf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\"></p>\n<p>Tesla stock split history: What was Tesla's stock price before the recent split?</p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's share price would continue to rise over the next five to ten years. With that in mind, the question is, will TSLA split again? Before discussing that, let's review Tesla's previous split.</p>\n<p>On August 11, 2020, Tesla&nbsp;announced, after the market closed, that its board approved a five-for-one split of shares to \"make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors.\" This marked Tesla's first-ever split announcement. The stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b22a860341fe3bf36996d737680ddb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"></p>\n<p><b>How did Tesla's most recent stock split affect share prices?</b></p>\n<p>Interestingly, after the split was affected, Tesla stock lost much of the August gains in just a few trading sessions in early September. The share price decline was speculated by some to be due to shareholders paring their holdings since the split had resulted in them holding more TSLA shares. This seems logical as the purpose of the split was to accord shareholders with greater \"liquidity\" over their TSLA holding.</p>\n<p>However, the weakness in Tesla's share price was more likely attributable to a capital-raising exercise&nbsp;announced&nbsp;pre-market on September 1, 2020. Although only up to $5 billion worth of shares representing just over 1 percent of Tesla's market cap were to be sold, investors were probably looking for a trigger to take profit considering that TSLA was running in overbought territory for more than two weeks, according to the relative strength index [RSI] momentum indicator at that time.</p>\n<p>TSLA's strong run upwards had also led to the stock becoming \"overweight\" on many shareholders' portfolios. Ironically, that meant investors, whether individuals or fund managers had to reduce their Tesla holdings to avoid concentration risk. For funds with concentration guidelines or rules, it's not even a choice but a&nbsp;mandatory reduction&nbsp;exercise once the Tesla position became outsized.</p>\n<p>To make matters worse, Tesla stock was subsequently dragged down further into correction territory amid a sell-off by investors of tech favorites and \"all things frothy.\" The share price recovered some grounds quickly but the stock stagnated for a few months thereafter before a&nbsp;powerful wave of EV hypeswept TSLA up again to new heights.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a34d7256fb764f0652d6223057202\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p><b>When will Tesla stock split again?</b></p>\n<p>Although Tesla's share price has pulled back from the peak earlier in the year, it remains much higher than the post-split level last year. At $744.12 at the time of writing, TSLA is 49 percent higher than the $498.32 close on August 31, 2020, the day of the stock split.</p>\n<p>If the past is any reference, Tesla executives did the stock split when the share price was in quadruple-digit. TSLA will need to rise more than 34 percent for that to happen again. As I opined earlier, Tesla stock appears to be poised for further upside. I believe it's more of a question of when, not if, will TSLA hit above $1,000 per share.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, even in the current investing environment where there are platforms allowing the trading of fractional shares, there are still benefits for stocks with smaller prices. One obvious advantage is the impact on psychology, as the mind interprets low prices as \"cheaply valued\" and having room to head north.</p>\n<p>The leadership at Apple must be thinking the same as the folks at Tesla when the company executed its stock split around the same time as the EV giant last August. The share price appreciation from pre-announcement to post-stock split date was less spectacular compared to Tesla but still a hefty 41 percent.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46bd0bed00b03ba1d738fd84c9dfb0dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>Considering that Apple&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a stock split when the share price was much lower at $384.76, it goes to show there's value in considering a split in the stock even without the share price hitting quadruple-digit. Furthermore, AAPL has done this four times before - in 1987, 2000, 2005, and 2014 - when the share prices were all below $1,000. In 1987 and 2005, the stock was even trading at the sub-$100 level when the company did the split.</p>\n<p>Jim Cramer was quoted as saying during an interview last year that Tim Cook explained the 2020 stock split to him, telling him that he wanted \"more people in the stock.\" I suppose that's what Bill Gates and his team thought when the software giant performed eight stock splits from the listing of Microsoft (MSFT) until 1999 as MSFT climbed exponentially during the period. Elon Musk and Tim Cook are the odd couple but I believe the former would agree on having \"more people\" in TSLA stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44957db620e86907bb72e9691bc726e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p><b>Should you buy Tesla now or wait for a split?</b></p>\n<p>Video-streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) announced a seven-for-one stock split in 2015 when its share was around $700 pre-split. NFLX went on to do very well though it's very much due to its business success than a simple cosmetic stock split exercise. The point of bringing this up is that Tesla's share price is around where Netflix's share price was when the split was completed.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3cbb0c9bd178401bc6cc863a0934af2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p>Although Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOG) are the odd tech companies trading at quadruple-digit levels, most others are trading in the triple-digit or smaller. With the favorable experience from the previous stock split, Tesla might not want to wait for the share price to hit quadruple-digit again before contemplating another split.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, there is&nbsp;existing literature&nbsp;that reveals a strong correlation between stock splits and \"outstanding stock price performance\", giving Tesla the impetus to do so. Another potential trigger point for Elon Musk to announce a stock split could be when TSLA hit $840 per share. He would be able to claim that the company would do a two-for-one split so that the share price becomes $420 post-split.</p>\n<p>Of course, the share price wouldn't stay flat from the announcement date until the effective date. Nonetheless, the media would have gone into overdrive covering the announcement and speculating about the number's link to weed as well as Elon's past brush with the securities law on his previous take-Tesla-private-at-$420 claim. This would generate plenty of free publicity for the company.</p>\n<p>However, investors should not hang around for a stock split if they are intending to own shares in Tesla. It may not happen and the share price could still zoom upwards on speculations, improving sentiment, or due to business fundamentals.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Split: Will It Happen Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 23:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.\nMore traditional automakers will also be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420899-tesla-stock-split-will-it-happen-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1166519043","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple and Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.\nMore traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles. Even if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla needs to build many more factories.\nIt's a high chance that a great number of new plants would be in China which carries plenty of geopolitical risks. The headwinds from the uncertainties could suppress TSLA stock.\nHowever, if analysts are right that Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet, its share price has much room to head north based on the consensus projections.\nTesla could consider another stock split to get \"more people in the stock.\" Past experiences suggest the EV titan could do one before the share price hit quadruple-digit again.\n\nPhoto by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nTSLA stock is poised to rise in line with its business growth\nIn a recent article titled Who Will Be The Biggest Competitors By 2025, I questioned certain projections regarding Tesla's (TSLA) car sales. Some estimates implied that Tesla would take a lion's share of the EV market despite the rapid increase in the number of competitors.\nBy 2025, Tesla not only has to contend with pure-play EV-makers. It will also face new entrants such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) as well as Chinese smartphone giants Huawei and Xiaomi Corporation (OTC:XIACF)(OTCPK:XIACY). More traditional automakers will also be producing electric vehicles, even as they continue to churn out internal combustion engine-based cars.\nEven if the demand side is plausible, it would mean Tesla, Inc. needs to build many more factories. Given the effusive praise we have heard from Elon Musk regarding the speed of factory construction and on China in general, we could expect additional new plants to be cited in the populous country. That could add more geopolitical risks to the stock, as SA author John Engle argued.\nThen again, as many readers on Seeking Alpha, analysts, and Cathie Wood have postulated, Tesla's true potential lies in a future rollout of an autonomous ride-hailing fleet. Consequently, Tesla's revenue is projected to rise from $31.54 billion in 2020 to a whopping $388.52 billion on a consensus basis in 2030. That would bring the price-to-sales ratio to a mere 1.84 times on a forward basis.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Premium\nIf Tesla did not disappoint the most bullish of the optimists forecasting its revenue to hit $600.7 billion in 2030, its P/S ratio would drop even lower to 1.19 times! You might say, all that sales are wonderful but what does their profitability look like? Well, the analysts believe TSLA would make boatloads of money. The consensus EPS estimate for 2030 is $33.48, a massive jump from the $0.64 it achieved in 2020. If the 2030 EPS estimate is realized, those earnings at today's price would reflect a ratio of 22.2 times, which could be seen as incredibly low.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWith EV sales projected by industry consultancy Canalys to remain below 50 percent of the total car sales by 2030, there remains significant growth potential for Tesla to increase its revenue. As such, assuming the analysts are correct, the share price of TSLA will not stay at the present level for the P/S ratio to be just 1.84 times and the P/E ratio at 22.2 times, the share price of TSLA would rise further than where it stands today.\n\nTesla stock split history: What was Tesla's stock price before the recent split?\nIn other words, Tesla's share price would continue to rise over the next five to ten years. With that in mind, the question is, will TSLA split again? Before discussing that, let's review Tesla's previous split.\nOn August 11, 2020, Tesla announced, after the market closed, that its board approved a five-for-one split of shares to \"make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors.\" This marked Tesla's first-ever split announcement. The stock jumped from a pre-split price of $1374.4 to as high as $1585 the next day before closing at $1554.75. TSLA went on to clock further gains the rest of the month, appreciating over 80 percent by the end of August 2020.\n\nHow did Tesla's most recent stock split affect share prices?\nInterestingly, after the split was affected, Tesla stock lost much of the August gains in just a few trading sessions in early September. The share price decline was speculated by some to be due to shareholders paring their holdings since the split had resulted in them holding more TSLA shares. This seems logical as the purpose of the split was to accord shareholders with greater \"liquidity\" over their TSLA holding.\nHowever, the weakness in Tesla's share price was more likely attributable to a capital-raising exercise announced pre-market on September 1, 2020. Although only up to $5 billion worth of shares representing just over 1 percent of Tesla's market cap were to be sold, investors were probably looking for a trigger to take profit considering that TSLA was running in overbought territory for more than two weeks, according to the relative strength index [RSI] momentum indicator at that time.\nTSLA's strong run upwards had also led to the stock becoming \"overweight\" on many shareholders' portfolios. Ironically, that meant investors, whether individuals or fund managers had to reduce their Tesla holdings to avoid concentration risk. For funds with concentration guidelines or rules, it's not even a choice but a mandatory reduction exercise once the Tesla position became outsized.\nTo make matters worse, Tesla stock was subsequently dragged down further into correction territory amid a sell-off by investors of tech favorites and \"all things frothy.\" The share price recovered some grounds quickly but the stock stagnated for a few months thereafter before a powerful wave of EV hypeswept TSLA up again to new heights.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nWhen will Tesla stock split again?\nAlthough Tesla's share price has pulled back from the peak earlier in the year, it remains much higher than the post-split level last year. At $744.12 at the time of writing, TSLA is 49 percent higher than the $498.32 close on August 31, 2020, the day of the stock split.\nIf the past is any reference, Tesla executives did the stock split when the share price was in quadruple-digit. TSLA will need to rise more than 34 percent for that to happen again. As I opined earlier, Tesla stock appears to be poised for further upside. I believe it's more of a question of when, not if, will TSLA hit above $1,000 per share.\nNevertheless, even in the current investing environment where there are platforms allowing the trading of fractional shares, there are still benefits for stocks with smaller prices. One obvious advantage is the impact on psychology, as the mind interprets low prices as \"cheaply valued\" and having room to head north.\nThe leadership at Apple must be thinking the same as the folks at Tesla when the company executed its stock split around the same time as the EV giant last August. The share price appreciation from pre-announcement to post-stock split date was less spectacular compared to Tesla but still a hefty 41 percent.\n\nConsidering that Apple announced a stock split when the share price was much lower at $384.76, it goes to show there's value in considering a split in the stock even without the share price hitting quadruple-digit. Furthermore, AAPL has done this four times before - in 1987, 2000, 2005, and 2014 - when the share prices were all below $1,000. In 1987 and 2005, the stock was even trading at the sub-$100 level when the company did the split.\nJim Cramer was quoted as saying during an interview last year that Tim Cook explained the 2020 stock split to him, telling him that he wanted \"more people in the stock.\" I suppose that's what Bill Gates and his team thought when the software giant performed eight stock splits from the listing of Microsoft (MSFT) until 1999 as MSFT climbed exponentially during the period. Elon Musk and Tim Cook are the odd couple but I believe the former would agree on having \"more people\" in TSLA stock.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nShould you buy Tesla now or wait for a split?\nVideo-streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) announced a seven-for-one stock split in 2015 when its share was around $700 pre-split. NFLX went on to do very well though it's very much due to its business success than a simple cosmetic stock split exercise. The point of bringing this up is that Tesla's share price is around where Netflix's share price was when the split was completed.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nAlthough Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOG) are the odd tech companies trading at quadruple-digit levels, most others are trading in the triple-digit or smaller. With the favorable experience from the previous stock split, Tesla might not want to wait for the share price to hit quadruple-digit again before contemplating another split.\nFurthermore, there is existing literature that reveals a strong correlation between stock splits and \"outstanding stock price performance\", giving Tesla the impetus to do so. Another potential trigger point for Elon Musk to announce a stock split could be when TSLA hit $840 per share. He would be able to claim that the company would do a two-for-one split so that the share price becomes $420 post-split.\nOf course, the share price wouldn't stay flat from the announcement date until the effective date. Nonetheless, the media would have gone into overdrive covering the announcement and speculating about the number's link to weed as well as Elon's past brush with the securities law on his previous take-Tesla-private-at-$420 claim. This would generate plenty of free publicity for the company.\nHowever, investors should not hang around for a stock split if they are intending to own shares in Tesla. It may not happen and the share price could still zoom upwards on speculations, improving sentiment, or due to business fundamentals.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379658139,"gmtCreate":1618732957821,"gmtModify":1704714438893,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379658139","repostId":"1156256429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156256429","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618495767,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156256429?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156256429","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-15 22:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156256429","content_text":"(April 15) Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.Digging Into Sales NumbersFor the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs UpDemand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.China-based EV makers includingBYD Co,NIO,Li AutoandXPengregistered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Foreign carmakers includingTesla,GMandFordare also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.Chip Deficit to Play SpoilsportWhile China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343251987,"gmtCreate":1617720230049,"gmtModify":1704702273738,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343251987","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101907559?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p>\n<p>In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p>\n<p>The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p>\n<p>A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p>\n<p><b>Unregulated money managers</b></p>\n<p>Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p>\n<p>This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p>\n<p>The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p>\n<p>But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p>\n<p>This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p>\n<p>So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p>\n<p>One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p>\n<p>But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p>\n<p><b>Yellen on the case</b></p>\n<p>This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p>\n<p>Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p>\n<p>The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 09:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}