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GooglyEyes

GooglyEyes

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2021-04-16

Hopefully Tesla hit 1K by the end of the year

2021-04-29

Majority of people in WSB are just pussies they always plan something and don't go through with it pump for a very short period and then pussy out the last min

Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets Wants to Send MVIS to $100. Short Sellers Are Playing with Fire.

2021-04-16

How much do yall think Palantier will hit?

Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?

2021-04-06

Thanks

Tesla: The Time Is Now

2023-05-17

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

2023-05-17

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

2021-04-27

$Microvision(MVIS)$up up and away?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970815195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970815309,"gmtCreate":1684256709702,"gmtModify":1684256712495,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580391035932792","idStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970815309","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100460807,"gmtCreate":1619631463609,"gmtModify":1704727133263,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580391035932792","idStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Majority of people in&nbsp;WSB are just pussies they always plan something and don't go through with it pump for a very short period and then pussy out the last min","listText":"Majority of people in&nbsp;WSB are just pussies they always plan something and don't go through with it pump for a very short period and then pussy out the last min","text":"Majority of people in WSB are just pussies they always plan something and don't go through with it pump for a very short period and then pussy out the last min","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100460807","repostId":"1136053263","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377800906,"gmtCreate":1619511266105,"gmtModify":1704725151745,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580391035932792","idStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>up up and away?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>up up and away?&nbsp;","text":"$Microvision(MVIS)$up up and away?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e95863366c7eace4b720f6cf22a365","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377800906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347495520,"gmtCreate":1618510324260,"gmtModify":1704712053534,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580391035932792","idStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How much do yall think Palantier will hit?&nbsp;","listText":"How much do yall think Palantier will hit?&nbsp;","text":"How much do yall think Palantier will hit?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347495520","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181372898","pubTimestamp":1618501265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181372898?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181372898","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Palantir fell nearlr 3%&nbsp;in Thursday&nbsp;morning  trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48094c753cf8466f8f6f524a7349fba1\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?</li><li>The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.</li><li>We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534db15a589a6170b395a97ae7d469e8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Palantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.</p><p><b>Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I Like</b></p><p>In general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.</p><p>The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:</p><p><b>1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decades</b></p><p>Big data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.</p><p><b>2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership position</b></p><p>Many hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.</p><p><b>3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristics</b></p><p>Big data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins&nbsp;are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.</p><p>The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.</p><p>Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5c147cb9babf998cfd35649f4cad22\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Clearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).</p><p><b>Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?</b></p><p>Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.</p><p>However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.</p><p>Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a7db46186418a049678d1ecf17ff30\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Whereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c82732cfdc04638279f1d9e77e9c1e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Not too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.</p><p>When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.</p><p>A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has&nbsp;easily beaten estimates&nbsp;in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.</p><p><b>How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower Price</b></p><p>For those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.</p><p>Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>At first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.</p><p>Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Actually Overvalued?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181372898","content_text":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisPalantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I LikeIn general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decadesBig data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership positionMany hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristicsBig data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:Data by YChartsClearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:Data by YChartsWhereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.Data by YChartsNot too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has easily beaten estimates in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower PriceFor those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.TakeawayAt first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347495996,"gmtCreate":1618510167815,"gmtModify":1704712052241,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580391035932792","idStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully Tesla hit 1K by the end of the year","listText":"Hopefully Tesla hit 1K by the end of the year","text":"Hopefully Tesla hit 1K by the end of the year","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81e3ee1777d98712e6c76e9f071191ff","width":"720","height":"1737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347495996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349773499,"gmtCreate":1617648987111,"gmtModify":1704701343718,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580391035932792","idStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349773499","repostId":"1123709980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123709980","pubTimestamp":1617636511,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123709980?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Time Is Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123709980","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"However, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.I'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images. Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid eco","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>TSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.</li>\n <li>However, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.</li>\n <li>I'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34d035a970508c4a7d59d7c16d728cb5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\"><span>Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.</p>\n<p>One name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f46ef39a132b1d301fa60da71f7ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"633\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.</p>\n<p>Not only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling is<i>probably</i>over. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.</p>\n<p>Those that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.</p>\n<p>But there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41235a82786f7c031ead1bbf3aa15c90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.</p>\n<p>What is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.</p>\n<p>Now, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.</p>\n<p>Obviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.</p>\n<p>Even if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8431dcf8a7afbe72249144c017e28ced\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"536\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.</p>\n<p>But more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.</p>\n<p><b>Not just a trade</b></p>\n<p>I’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8499c62835d88fca8a6c22c7cb8aeae8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Revenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414e539154fdd2ed51e8f5518cc1dee4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\"><span>Source: Investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>The company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.</p>\n<p>Tesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.</p>\n<p>The beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.</p>\n<p>Entire&nbsp;countries&nbsp;have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d31a504c8d24f752bdf964272d0c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.</p>\n<p>Tesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.</p>\n<p>On the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/509625fa57a60dedf709454caef2bf2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Estimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ca244f453cb1ff0d6cf666285f958d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>If you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation and sentiment</b></p>\n<p>The interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464a965b06e8dd2a0e88f7849563b9fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Authors here on<i>Seeking Alpha</i>are, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.</p>\n<p>And as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.</p>\n<p>Finally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57b4c81b65d3137aa47507c4757025df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Valuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.</p>\n<p>The others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.</p>\n<p>Semi production&nbsp;isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving&nbsp;interest&nbsp;from buyers. This has the potential for<i>massive</i>market share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.</p>\n<p>The point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.</p>\n<p>Valuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here on<i>SA</i>and am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.</p>\n<p>Risks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.</p>\n<p>Given this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.</p>\n<p>That, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Time Is Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Time Is Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 23:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1123709980","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nGrowth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.\nOne name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG Tesla(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.\nNot only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling isprobablyover. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.\nThose that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.\nBut there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.\nSource: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance\nTesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.\nWhat is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.\nNow, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.\nObviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.\nEven if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.\nBut more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.\nNot just a trade\nI’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nRevenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.\nSource: Investor presentation\nThe company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.\nTesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.\nThe beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.\nEntire countries have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.\nSource: Statista\nTesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.\nTesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.\nOn the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nEstimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIf you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.\nValuation and sentiment\nThe interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAuthors here onSeeking Alphaare, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.\nAnd as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.\nFinally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.\nSource: TIKR.com\nValuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.\nThe others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.\nFinal Thoughts\nTesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.\nSemi production isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving interest from buyers. This has the potential formassivemarket share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.\nThe point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.\nValuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here onSAand am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.\nRisks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.\nGiven this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.\nThat, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":347495996,"gmtCreate":1618510167815,"gmtModify":1704712052241,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580391035932792","authorIdStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully Tesla hit 1K by the end of the year","listText":"Hopefully Tesla hit 1K by the end of the year","text":"Hopefully Tesla hit 1K by the end of the year","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81e3ee1777d98712e6c76e9f071191ff","width":"720","height":"1737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347495996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100460807,"gmtCreate":1619631463609,"gmtModify":1704727133263,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580391035932792","authorIdStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Majority of people in&nbsp;WSB are just pussies they always plan something and don't go through with it pump for a very short period and then pussy out the last min","listText":"Majority of people in&nbsp;WSB are just pussies they always plan something and don't go through with it pump for a very short period and then pussy out the last min","text":"Majority of people in WSB are just pussies they always plan something and don't go through with it pump for a very short period and then pussy out the last min","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100460807","repostId":"1136053263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136053263","pubTimestamp":1619593949,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136053263?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-28 15:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets Wants to Send MVIS to $100. Short Sellers Are Playing with Fire.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136053263","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"MVIS stock is embarking on a round-trip visit to the moon. Investors need a new short-squeeze playbo","content":"<p>MVIS stock is embarking on a round-trip visit to the moon. Investors need a new short-squeeze playbook.</p>\n<p>This week,<b>Microvision</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>MVIS</u></b>) briefly became the&nbsp;most-mentioned company&nbsp;on&nbsp;<b>Reddit’s</b>&nbsp;r/WallStreetBets subreddit. It didn’t matter that the 28-year-old firm had never seen a profitable year, nor that its lidar (light detection and ranging) technology lags years behind the competition. Every time a Reddit user posted their&nbsp;six-digit gains&nbsp;from MVIS stock, more people bought in. Over the past week, the firm rose 150% before dropping about a quarter.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, short bets in the stock have ballooned. On Tuesday, traders sold 47.5 million shares short in a single day — a head-turning amount for a firm with only 156 million freely floated shares. Fee rates for shorting shares now stand at&nbsp;over 45%, according to data from Fintel, a financial aggregation firm.</p>\n<p>These investors have a point to stay skeptical. Microvision’s hopes rest on its unproven track record in lidar development, a laser technology that dozens of companies have fought over. Its licensing revenue also looks set to shrink in the coming quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2cf46e472040a6ea0ceb0c46d72c0b\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"575\"><span>Source: Data courtesy of Thompson Reuters</span></p>\n<p>、</p>\n<p>But when it comes to Reddit investing, none of that seems to matter. Why? Because when fellow Redditors are parading their well-earned gains in front of peers, there’s little stopping others from jumping in on<i>fear of missing out</i>, otherwise known as FOMO.</p>\n<p>To profit here, investors need to play a different game. That starts with understanding how we got here.</p>\n<p><b>MVIS Stock Is Reddit’s New Toy</b></p>\n<p>Last week, insightful readers may have noticed MVIS stock start to inch up. Shares had fallen to as low as $10 after a March selloff. By Monday, though, shares closed at over $26.</p>\n<p><i>What happened?</i></p>\n<p>As early investors started to post screenshots of their paper gains on the r/WallStreetBets subreddit, they created a positive feedback loop. The faster shares rose, the more people bought in and so on. By early this week, people were placing significant&nbsp;out-of-the-money call bets&nbsp;on the stock — a move that can easily trigger a gamma squeeze. This same playbook sent&nbsp;<b>Gamestop</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>GME</u></b>) shares as high as $483 earlier this year.</p>\n<p>The results would end up as expected. MVIS stock shot up as new FOMO investors started buying in. By Tuesday, Microvision had become one of the top-traded stocks after hours.</p>\n<p>Wall Street, however, was still not convinced. Today, Microvision’s short interest percent sits at about 20%.&nbsp;As the gap between Main Street and Wall Street grows, investors on both sides will try to play each other for gains.</p>\n<p><b>The Widening Gap: Story Over Substance</b></p>\n<p>Wall Street analysts have long known the&nbsp;issues&nbsp;at Microvision. The firm started in 1993 to develop technology for displaying images&nbsp;“onto the retina of the viewer’s eye.”However, these early ventures into augmented-reality headsets failed to create a working commercial product. Later, Microvision’s management moved onto making micro-projectors, but fail to turn a profit from that as well. Since then, the firm has pivoted for a third time, with hopes now resting on lidar for autonomous vehicles (AVs).</p>\n<p>But there’s just one problem: lidar is such an incredibly crowded field that even well-funded firms have gone bankrupt. For example, Israel-based Oryx Vision&nbsp;folded in 2019. Now, more companies seem&nbsp;set to follow.</p>\n<p>Redditors, however, haven’t shown concerns. To them, reaching $100 is more important than understanding what Microvision is actually worth. It doesn’t matter that MVIS stock is now nearly worth as much as the combined value of&nbsp;<b>Velodyne</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>VLDR</u></b>) and&nbsp;<b>Ouster</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>OUST</u></b>), two of its close competitors. Nor is it noteworthy that&nbsp;<b>Luminar</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>LAZR</u></b>), the dominant player in the field, has a multi-year head start.</p>\n<p>And as for&nbsp;<b>Intel’s</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) Mobileye potentially releasing a&nbsp;lidar system for under $1,000? To them, it’s more important that MVIS is going up.</p>\n<p><b>How to Play MVIS Stock</b></p>\n<p>Most investors would do well to sit by and watch this multi-act comedy play out. Short sellers will likely win eventually, but margin calls and short squeezes can drive these investors out of business long before they can profit. Meanwhile, Microvision might yet stumble upon a world-beating lidar technology. And they’ll have no trouble selling it — legacy automakers have shown a willingness to&nbsp;pay up&nbsp;for firms with the right self-driving technology. As for their stock, Reddit investors have a habit of&nbsp;inflating good news&nbsp;to unimaginable levels.</p>\n<p>That said, there will always be folks looking to profit from short-term volatility. If you’re one of them, here’s how that might work.</p>\n<p>When Microvision reports first-quarter earnings&nbsp;this Thursday, investors should expect volatility to rise. The firm is due to update investors on its lidar program and such pronouncements can send a stock either skyrocketing or plummeting.</p>\n<p>Currently, we don’t know which way MVIS stock will go (although there’s a good chance it is still years away from a breakthrough product). That makes going long volatility a compelling bet, particularly for strategies that involve long calls (strangles that involve buying one call and one put are a good example). These one-sided returns can yield 10-to-one payoffs for those who choose the right out-of-the-money strikes.</p>\n<p>Choosing the right strike prices is also essential. Tuesday’s decline sent at-the-money calls&nbsp;down 54%&nbsp;while puts with the same strike&nbsp;rose just 37%. A simple straddle would have lost money; investors would have needed to use different strike prices (known as a strangles) to stay above water.</p>\n<p><b>MVIS Stock: A Brave New World of Investing</b></p>\n<p>As the Gamestop short squeeze in January showed, it’s best to keep your distance when Wall Street and Reddit lock horns on a stock. It’s hard to know how high prices can go or how quickly things can unravel.</p>\n<p>This year, solid-state battery developer&nbsp;<b>Quantumscape</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>QS</u></b>) grew to a&nbsp;$50 billion market capitalization&nbsp;despite being years from profitability. Its stock has gone on to lose three quarters of its value. Similarly, profitless special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) have raised billions for pre-revenue names.<b>Churchill Capital IV</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>CCIV</u></b>) would have theoretically valued Lucid Motors at $105 billion (“theoretically” because CCIV reached that valuation before the merger terms were announced). Shares are down 65% since then.</p>\n<p>MVIS stock has already earned its place among these high-flying companies. Its $3.2 billion market cap represents an over 1,000 times price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. But what comes next is an open question. All said, it’s better to play a different game when an all-out war is brewing in the underlying stock.</p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets Wants to Send MVIS to $100. Short Sellers Are Playing with Fire.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReddit’s r/WallStreetBets Wants to Send MVIS to $100. Short Sellers Are Playing with Fire.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-28 15:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/04/reddit-send-mvis-stock-100-short-sellers-playing-with-fire/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MVIS stock is embarking on a round-trip visit to the moon. Investors need a new short-squeeze playbook.\nThis week,Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) briefly became the most-mentioned company on Reddit’s r/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/reddit-send-mvis-stock-100-short-sellers-playing-with-fire/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MVIS":"维视图像"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/reddit-send-mvis-stock-100-short-sellers-playing-with-fire/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136053263","content_text":"MVIS stock is embarking on a round-trip visit to the moon. Investors need a new short-squeeze playbook.\nThis week,Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) briefly became the most-mentioned company on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets subreddit. It didn’t matter that the 28-year-old firm had never seen a profitable year, nor that its lidar (light detection and ranging) technology lags years behind the competition. Every time a Reddit user posted their six-digit gains from MVIS stock, more people bought in. Over the past week, the firm rose 150% before dropping about a quarter.\nMeanwhile, short bets in the stock have ballooned. On Tuesday, traders sold 47.5 million shares short in a single day — a head-turning amount for a firm with only 156 million freely floated shares. Fee rates for shorting shares now stand at over 45%, according to data from Fintel, a financial aggregation firm.\nThese investors have a point to stay skeptical. Microvision’s hopes rest on its unproven track record in lidar development, a laser technology that dozens of companies have fought over. Its licensing revenue also looks set to shrink in the coming quarters.\nSource: Data courtesy of Thompson Reuters\n、\nBut when it comes to Reddit investing, none of that seems to matter. Why? Because when fellow Redditors are parading their well-earned gains in front of peers, there’s little stopping others from jumping in onfear of missing out, otherwise known as FOMO.\nTo profit here, investors need to play a different game. That starts with understanding how we got here.\nMVIS Stock Is Reddit’s New Toy\nLast week, insightful readers may have noticed MVIS stock start to inch up. Shares had fallen to as low as $10 after a March selloff. By Monday, though, shares closed at over $26.\nWhat happened?\nAs early investors started to post screenshots of their paper gains on the r/WallStreetBets subreddit, they created a positive feedback loop. The faster shares rose, the more people bought in and so on. By early this week, people were placing significant out-of-the-money call bets on the stock — a move that can easily trigger a gamma squeeze. This same playbook sent Gamestop (NYSE:GME) shares as high as $483 earlier this year.\nThe results would end up as expected. MVIS stock shot up as new FOMO investors started buying in. By Tuesday, Microvision had become one of the top-traded stocks after hours.\nWall Street, however, was still not convinced. Today, Microvision’s short interest percent sits at about 20%. As the gap between Main Street and Wall Street grows, investors on both sides will try to play each other for gains.\nThe Widening Gap: Story Over Substance\nWall Street analysts have long known the issues at Microvision. The firm started in 1993 to develop technology for displaying images “onto the retina of the viewer’s eye.”However, these early ventures into augmented-reality headsets failed to create a working commercial product. Later, Microvision’s management moved onto making micro-projectors, but fail to turn a profit from that as well. Since then, the firm has pivoted for a third time, with hopes now resting on lidar for autonomous vehicles (AVs).\nBut there’s just one problem: lidar is such an incredibly crowded field that even well-funded firms have gone bankrupt. For example, Israel-based Oryx Vision folded in 2019. Now, more companies seem set to follow.\nRedditors, however, haven’t shown concerns. To them, reaching $100 is more important than understanding what Microvision is actually worth. It doesn’t matter that MVIS stock is now nearly worth as much as the combined value of Velodyne (NASDAQ:VLDR) and Ouster (NYSE:OUST), two of its close competitors. Nor is it noteworthy that Luminar (NASDAQ:LAZR), the dominant player in the field, has a multi-year head start.\nAnd as for Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) Mobileye potentially releasing a lidar system for under $1,000? To them, it’s more important that MVIS is going up.\nHow to Play MVIS Stock\nMost investors would do well to sit by and watch this multi-act comedy play out. Short sellers will likely win eventually, but margin calls and short squeezes can drive these investors out of business long before they can profit. Meanwhile, Microvision might yet stumble upon a world-beating lidar technology. And they’ll have no trouble selling it — legacy automakers have shown a willingness to pay up for firms with the right self-driving technology. As for their stock, Reddit investors have a habit of inflating good news to unimaginable levels.\nThat said, there will always be folks looking to profit from short-term volatility. If you’re one of them, here’s how that might work.\nWhen Microvision reports first-quarter earnings this Thursday, investors should expect volatility to rise. The firm is due to update investors on its lidar program and such pronouncements can send a stock either skyrocketing or plummeting.\nCurrently, we don’t know which way MVIS stock will go (although there’s a good chance it is still years away from a breakthrough product). That makes going long volatility a compelling bet, particularly for strategies that involve long calls (strangles that involve buying one call and one put are a good example). These one-sided returns can yield 10-to-one payoffs for those who choose the right out-of-the-money strikes.\nChoosing the right strike prices is also essential. Tuesday’s decline sent at-the-money calls down 54% while puts with the same strike rose just 37%. A simple straddle would have lost money; investors would have needed to use different strike prices (known as a strangles) to stay above water.\nMVIS Stock: A Brave New World of Investing\nAs the Gamestop short squeeze in January showed, it’s best to keep your distance when Wall Street and Reddit lock horns on a stock. It’s hard to know how high prices can go or how quickly things can unravel.\nThis year, solid-state battery developer Quantumscape (NYSE:QS) grew to a $50 billion market capitalization despite being years from profitability. Its stock has gone on to lose three quarters of its value. Similarly, profitless special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) have raised billions for pre-revenue names.Churchill Capital IV (NYSE:CCIV) would have theoretically valued Lucid Motors at $105 billion (“theoretically” because CCIV reached that valuation before the merger terms were announced). Shares are down 65% since then.\nMVIS stock has already earned its place among these high-flying companies. Its $3.2 billion market cap represents an over 1,000 times price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. But what comes next is an open question. All said, it’s better to play a different game when an all-out war is brewing in the underlying stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347495520,"gmtCreate":1618510324260,"gmtModify":1704712053534,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580391035932792","authorIdStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How much do yall think Palantier will hit?&nbsp;","listText":"How much do yall think Palantier will hit?&nbsp;","text":"How much do yall think Palantier will hit?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347495520","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181372898","pubTimestamp":1618501265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181372898?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181372898","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Palantir fell nearlr 3%&nbsp;in Thursday&nbsp;morning  trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48094c753cf8466f8f6f524a7349fba1\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?</li><li>The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.</li><li>We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534db15a589a6170b395a97ae7d469e8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Palantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.</p><p><b>Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I Like</b></p><p>In general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.</p><p>The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:</p><p><b>1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decades</b></p><p>Big data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.</p><p><b>2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership position</b></p><p>Many hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.</p><p><b>3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristics</b></p><p>Big data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins&nbsp;are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.</p><p>The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.</p><p>Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5c147cb9babf998cfd35649f4cad22\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Clearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).</p><p><b>Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?</b></p><p>Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.</p><p>However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.</p><p>Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a7db46186418a049678d1ecf17ff30\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Whereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c82732cfdc04638279f1d9e77e9c1e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Not too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.</p><p>When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.</p><p>A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has&nbsp;easily beaten estimates&nbsp;in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.</p><p><b>How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower Price</b></p><p>For those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.</p><p>Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>At first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.</p><p>Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Actually Overvalued?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181372898","content_text":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisPalantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I LikeIn general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decadesBig data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership positionMany hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristicsBig data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:Data by YChartsClearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:Data by YChartsWhereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.Data by YChartsNot too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has easily beaten estimates in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower PriceFor those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.TakeawayAt first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349773499,"gmtCreate":1617648987111,"gmtModify":1704701343718,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580391035932792","authorIdStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349773499","repostId":"1123709980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123709980","pubTimestamp":1617636511,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123709980?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Time Is Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123709980","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"However, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.I'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images. Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid eco","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>TSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.</li>\n <li>However, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.</li>\n <li>I'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34d035a970508c4a7d59d7c16d728cb5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\"><span>Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.</p>\n<p>One name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f46ef39a132b1d301fa60da71f7ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"633\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.</p>\n<p>Not only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling is<i>probably</i>over. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.</p>\n<p>Those that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.</p>\n<p>But there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41235a82786f7c031ead1bbf3aa15c90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.</p>\n<p>What is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.</p>\n<p>Now, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.</p>\n<p>Obviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.</p>\n<p>Even if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8431dcf8a7afbe72249144c017e28ced\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"536\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.</p>\n<p>But more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.</p>\n<p><b>Not just a trade</b></p>\n<p>I’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8499c62835d88fca8a6c22c7cb8aeae8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Revenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414e539154fdd2ed51e8f5518cc1dee4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\"><span>Source: Investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>The company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.</p>\n<p>Tesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.</p>\n<p>The beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.</p>\n<p>Entire&nbsp;countries&nbsp;have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d31a504c8d24f752bdf964272d0c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.</p>\n<p>Tesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.</p>\n<p>On the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/509625fa57a60dedf709454caef2bf2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Estimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ca244f453cb1ff0d6cf666285f958d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>If you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation and sentiment</b></p>\n<p>The interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464a965b06e8dd2a0e88f7849563b9fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Authors here on<i>Seeking Alpha</i>are, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.</p>\n<p>And as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.</p>\n<p>Finally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57b4c81b65d3137aa47507c4757025df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Valuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.</p>\n<p>The others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.</p>\n<p>Semi production&nbsp;isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving&nbsp;interest&nbsp;from buyers. This has the potential for<i>massive</i>market share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.</p>\n<p>The point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.</p>\n<p>Valuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here on<i>SA</i>and am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.</p>\n<p>Risks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.</p>\n<p>Given this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.</p>\n<p>That, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Time Is Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Time Is Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 23:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1123709980","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nGrowth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.\nOne name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG Tesla(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.\nNot only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling isprobablyover. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.\nThose that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.\nBut there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.\nSource: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance\nTesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.\nWhat is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.\nNow, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.\nObviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.\nEven if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.\nBut more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.\nNot just a trade\nI’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nRevenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.\nSource: Investor presentation\nThe company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.\nTesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.\nThe beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.\nEntire countries have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.\nSource: Statista\nTesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.\nTesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.\nOn the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nEstimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIf you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.\nValuation and sentiment\nThe interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAuthors here onSeeking Alphaare, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.\nAnd as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.\nFinally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.\nSource: TIKR.com\nValuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.\nThe others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.\nFinal Thoughts\nTesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.\nSemi production isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving interest from buyers. This has the potential formassivemarket share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.\nThe point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.\nValuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here onSAand am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.\nRisks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.\nGiven this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.\nThat, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970815195,"gmtCreate":1684256731818,"gmtModify":1684256734751,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580391035932792","authorIdStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970815195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970815309,"gmtCreate":1684256709702,"gmtModify":1684256712495,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580391035932792","authorIdStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970815309","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377800906,"gmtCreate":1619511266105,"gmtModify":1704725151745,"author":{"id":"3580391035932792","authorId":"3580391035932792","name":"GooglyEyes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb04326a439c056556b0b5ba767c936","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580391035932792","authorIdStr":"3580391035932792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>up up and away?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>up up and away?&nbsp;","text":"$Microvision(MVIS)$up up and away?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e95863366c7eace4b720f6cf22a365","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377800906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}