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18:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳斯达克指数或将步入熊市？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196998207","media":"英为财情Invest...","summary":"去年以来，随着美联储主席鲍威尔获得连任提名，美联储收紧货币政策的进程突然加快。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数开始震荡回落。美联储加快紧缩进程最近的数据显示，美国的通货膨胀率已经再次刷新40年来的纪录，虽然","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>去年以来，随着美联储主席鲍威尔获得连任提名，美联储收紧货币政策的进程突然加快。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数开始震荡回落。</p><p><b>美联储加快紧缩进程</b></p><p>最近的数据显示，美国的通货膨胀率已经再次刷新40年来的纪录，虽然符合市场的预期，但是通胀的飙升已经有所失控，美联储的袖手旁观付出了代价，很多分析师认为现在美联储才开始行动或为时已晚，这或许也是美联储不得不加快紧缩进程的原因所在。</p><p>美联储在去年已经开始并且加快了taper的速度，近期日渐鹰派的美联储官员更是多次表示今明两年将会分别加息三次，甚至四次，而且美联储缩减资产负债表的预期也多次被提及。</p><p>根据美国30天联邦基金期货价格的预测，美联储于今年三月加息的概率已经超过了90%。</p><p><b>科技股遇冷</b></p><p>随着预期利率的提升，美债收益率也开始飙升，对利率敏感的美国二年期国债收益率已经上涨至0.97%附近，接近了疫情爆发前的水平，美国十年期国债收益率也已经飙升至1.79%，刷新2020年1月22日以来的新高。市场开始消化美联储加息的三次甚至四次的预期。</p><p>随着收益率的飙升，美国各大股指开始回落。进入2022年，截止发稿以传统蓝筹股为主的道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了1.17%，跌幅最小；美国标准普尔500指数次之，累计下跌了2.17%，以科技股和成长股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌幅最大，下跌了4.8%。</p><p>2022年才刚刚开始，纳斯达克指数就尽显疲态。标普500指数信息科技(IT)板块占大盘指数权重近29%，今年以来下跌5.5%，包括微软公司 (NASDAQ:MSFT)和英伟达公司 (NASDAQ:NVDA)等权重股大幅下跌，这两家公司跌幅深达约9%。</p><p>这与2021年强劲的表现形成了鲜明的对比。从基本面上来讲，唯一出现重大改变的就是不断飙升的通胀和美联储向鹰派的转变。随着美联储提高短期利率，投资者将密切关注长期美国公债收益率的上升幅度。收益率上升会使未来的利润价值更大幅度地折价，这对成长型股票带来压力尤大。</p><p><b>以史为鉴</b></p><p>此前，我们已经在多篇文章中有所提及，美股在美联储加息周期当中大都表现良好，不过在加息前会有一段阵痛期。</p><p>上个美联储的加息周期是从2015-12-16日到2017年12月13日，持续约两年的时间，期间累计涨幅高达40%！</p><p>不过在开始加息之前四个月以及刚开始宣布加息之后，纳斯达克综合指数都出现了较大幅度的波动。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ea0a7ae70ca1502ed19c18fd2dc5fd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>纳斯达克综合指数日线图，来源：Investing.com</p><p>我们目前就正处于新一轮美联储加息周期之前。若美联储在3月加息的话，纳指于去年11月22日创新高之后开始回调，也刚好提前四个月。</p><p>不过这次也有所不同，上次美联储是在2017年10月加息接近尾声的时候才开始缩表，一直持续到了2019年9月，期间于2018年10月美股也经历了一轮暴跌。而现在美联储还未开始加息，市场就已经开始讨论如何缩表，本次紧缩的力度和速度可能更深从前。</p><p>前一次缩表周期中，美联储的资产规模从4.45万亿美元缩减至3.76万亿美金，缩表规模为0.69万亿美金，缩减幅度为15.5%，2019年9月以后由于经济下行压力加大，美联储开始新一轮的扩表。</p><p>而本次缩表之前，美联储的资产规模8.79万亿美元，相比疫情前的4.18万亿，大幅度增长1.1倍，资产规模与2017年相比更大，即使按照上一次的减量幅度15.5%，缩表的规模将达到1.36万亿美金，是疫情前美联储资产规模的32.6%，如果减量的幅度更大，导致流动性被回收的压力会更大，对市场的冲击也更大，当然，具体缩表的规模有多大还无从判断。</p><p><b>财报是关键</b></p><p>事实上，加息或者缩表影响的更多是估值水平，但是决定股市涨跌的关键还是在于盈利水平。因此，我们不能简单认为加息和缩表就会导致美股暴跌。</p><p>核心点在于加息的状况下，标普或者纳斯达克公司盈利的持续性如何，如果盈利继续上行，股市中长期就不会出现大问题。这也是历史上美股在加息周期中屡屡走强的根本原因。</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>纳指遭到美联储紧缩的冲击是在所难免的，不过阵痛可能是短期的。本次财报季将尤为关键，投资者可以借此机会优胜劣汰，筛选一些较好的股票，同时做好防范回调的准备，或者短期内干脆放弃成长股，等待不确定性消除或者时机成熟时再做打算。</p></body></html>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eyQo6j6dmzFdMrWoLm4mqA><strong>英为财情Invest...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>去年以来，随着美联储主席鲍威尔获得连任提名，美联储收紧货币政策的进程突然加快。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数开始震荡回落。美联储加快紧缩进程最近的数据显示，美国的通货膨胀率已经再次刷新40年来的纪录，虽然符合市场的预期，但是通胀的飙升已经有所失控，美联储的袖手旁观付出了代价，很多分析师认为现在美联储才开始行动或为时已晚，这或许也是美联储不得不加快紧缩进程的原因所在。美联储在去年已经开始并且加快了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eyQo6j6dmzFdMrWoLm4mqA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eyQo6j6dmzFdMrWoLm4mqA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196998207","content_text":"去年以来，随着美联储主席鲍威尔获得连任提名，美联储收紧货币政策的进程突然加快。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数开始震荡回落。美联储加快紧缩进程最近的数据显示，美国的通货膨胀率已经再次刷新40年来的纪录，虽然符合市场的预期，但是通胀的飙升已经有所失控，美联储的袖手旁观付出了代价，很多分析师认为现在美联储才开始行动或为时已晚，这或许也是美联储不得不加快紧缩进程的原因所在。美联储在去年已经开始并且加快了taper的速度，近期日渐鹰派的美联储官员更是多次表示今明两年将会分别加息三次，甚至四次，而且美联储缩减资产负债表的预期也多次被提及。根据美国30天联邦基金期货价格的预测，美联储于今年三月加息的概率已经超过了90%。科技股遇冷随着预期利率的提升，美债收益率也开始飙升，对利率敏感的美国二年期国债收益率已经上涨至0.97%附近，接近了疫情爆发前的水平，美国十年期国债收益率也已经飙升至1.79%，刷新2020年1月22日以来的新高。市场开始消化美联储加息的三次甚至四次的预期。随着收益率的飙升，美国各大股指开始回落。进入2022年，截止发稿以传统蓝筹股为主的道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了1.17%，跌幅最小；美国标准普尔500指数次之，累计下跌了2.17%，以科技股和成长股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌幅最大，下跌了4.8%。2022年才刚刚开始，纳斯达克指数就尽显疲态。标普500指数信息科技(IT)板块占大盘指数权重近29%，今年以来下跌5.5%，包括微软公司 (NASDAQ:MSFT)和英伟达公司 (NASDAQ:NVDA)等权重股大幅下跌，这两家公司跌幅深达约9%。这与2021年强劲的表现形成了鲜明的对比。从基本面上来讲，唯一出现重大改变的就是不断飙升的通胀和美联储向鹰派的转变。随着美联储提高短期利率，投资者将密切关注长期美国公债收益率的上升幅度。收益率上升会使未来的利润价值更大幅度地折价，这对成长型股票带来压力尤大。以史为鉴此前，我们已经在多篇文章中有所提及，美股在美联储加息周期当中大都表现良好，不过在加息前会有一段阵痛期。上个美联储的加息周期是从2015-12-16日到2017年12月13日，持续约两年的时间，期间累计涨幅高达40%！不过在开始加息之前四个月以及刚开始宣布加息之后，纳斯达克综合指数都出现了较大幅度的波动。纳斯达克综合指数日线图，来源：Investing.com我们目前就正处于新一轮美联储加息周期之前。若美联储在3月加息的话，纳指于去年11月22日创新高之后开始回调，也刚好提前四个月。不过这次也有所不同，上次美联储是在2017年10月加息接近尾声的时候才开始缩表，一直持续到了2019年9月，期间于2018年10月美股也经历了一轮暴跌。而现在美联储还未开始加息，市场就已经开始讨论如何缩表，本次紧缩的力度和速度可能更深从前。前一次缩表周期中，美联储的资产规模从4.45万亿美元缩减至3.76万亿美金，缩表规模为0.69万亿美金，缩减幅度为15.5%，2019年9月以后由于经济下行压力加大，美联储开始新一轮的扩表。而本次缩表之前，美联储的资产规模8.79万亿美元，相比疫情前的4.18万亿，大幅度增长1.1倍，资产规模与2017年相比更大，即使按照上一次的减量幅度15.5%，缩表的规模将达到1.36万亿美金，是疫情前美联储资产规模的32.6%，如果减量的幅度更大，导致流动性被回收的压力会更大，对市场的冲击也更大，当然，具体缩表的规模有多大还无从判断。财报是关键事实上，加息或者缩表影响的更多是估值水平，但是决定股市涨跌的关键还是在于盈利水平。因此，我们不能简单认为加息和缩表就会导致美股暴跌。核心点在于加息的状况下，标普或者纳斯达克公司盈利的持续性如何，如果盈利继续上行，股市中长期就不会出现大问题。这也是历史上美股在加息周期中屡屡走强的根本原因。总结纳指遭到美联储紧缩的冲击是在所难免的，不过阵痛可能是短期的。本次财报季将尤为关键，投资者可以借此机会优胜劣汰，筛选一些较好的股票，同时做好防范回调的准备，或者短期内干脆放弃成长股，等待不确定性消除或者时机成熟时再做打算。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969730593,"gmtCreate":1668519515612,"gmtModify":1676538069521,"author":{"id":"3580436687039209","authorId":"3580436687039209","authorIdStr":"3580436687039209","name":"贱鹿","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5021628cfb4fc7d8282b0e96b2900faf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580436687039209"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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