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hhang

hhang

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2022-12-30

go go go

2023-01-03

nice

2022-05-09

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2025-11-26

2022-11-22

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Citigroup upgraded its rating on Hong Kong stocks, prompting a collective call on Wall Street to "buy China"!

2022-10-09

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What are Biden's chances of winning the midterm elections?

2022-05-28

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US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose, with Rivian gaining nearly 7%.

2022-05-13

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2022-04-06

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Federal Reserve's Brainard: Balance sheet may shrink rapidly as early as May.

2022-04-06

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11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Citigroup upgraded its rating on Hong Kong stocks, prompting a collective call on Wall Street to \"buy China\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285027318","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗认为，当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。华尔街再次将目光聚焦在中国，花旗最近将中国香港股市上调至超","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Citigroup believes that a series of current domestic policies in China should help support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery.</b>Wall Street is once again focusing on China, with Citigroup recently upgrading its Hong Kong stock market to overweight.</p><p>In a report released on Sunday, November 20th, the team of Citi strategists Robert Buckland believed that:</p><p>The current series of domestic policies in China should help stabilize the current decline in earnings per share of Chinese stocks and support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery. In recent weeks, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has entered a bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index has also rebounded continuously after testing long-term technical support levels over the past 17 years.</p><p>For other Asian economies, Citigroup downgraded South Korea's rating to underweight, citing contracting earnings in the country. Remain neutral towards India; My holdings in Malaysia have been upgraded to \"overweight\"; Downgrade Indonesia to neutral.</p><p>Citigroup isn't the only company bullish on the Chinese market recently.</p><p>Always cautious<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Last week, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Chinese stocks, predicting that the MSCI China Index would rise 14% by the end of next year. As early as mid-October, during the stock market correction, Morgan Stanley stated that a good time to buy Chinese stocks had arrived.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We reaffirm our confidence in the Chinese stock market. In a report, Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight rating on the MSCI China Index, expecting the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to return as much as 16% in the next 12 months, and as high as 19% and 21% when exchange rate factors are taken into account. Goldman Sachs also upgraded Hong Kong stocks from underweight to even weight.</p><p>In addition, Hillhouse Capital remains optimistic about Chinese assets, with HHLR Advisors, its fund management firm specializing in secondary investments, reporting a third-quarter outlook.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary Creatures</a>Nine Chinese concept stocks, including those listed above, underwent increased holdings, new purchases, and other operations. We remain optimistic about new energy and have increased our holdings in Daquan New Energy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>。</p><p>Allianz Investment All China Equity<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUND\">Fund</a>Manager Anthony Wong said earlier that the A-share market is best suited to seize (outperform) opportunities because it has a large number of new economy companies and is relatively unaffected by external fluctuations.</p><p>The market's performance did not disappoint Wall Street banks. This month, the MSCI China Index surged nearly 24%, poised for its best monthly performance since 1999. Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>The index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index are also in technical bull market territory.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citigroup upgraded its rating on Hong Kong stocks, prompting a collective call on Wall Street to \"buy China\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCitigroup upgraded its rating on Hong Kong stocks, prompting a collective call on Wall Street to \"buy China\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-22 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Citigroup believes that a series of current domestic policies in China should help support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery.</b>Wall Street is once again focusing on China, with Citigroup recently upgrading its Hong Kong stock market to overweight.</p><p>In a report released on Sunday, November 20th, the team of Citi strategists Robert Buckland believed that:</p><p>The current series of domestic policies in China should help stabilize the current decline in earnings per share of Chinese stocks and support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery. In recent weeks, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has entered a bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index has also rebounded continuously after testing long-term technical support levels over the past 17 years.</p><p>For other Asian economies, Citigroup downgraded South Korea's rating to underweight, citing contracting earnings in the country. Remain neutral towards India; My holdings in Malaysia have been upgraded to \"overweight\"; Downgrade Indonesia to neutral.</p><p>Citigroup isn't the only company bullish on the Chinese market recently.</p><p>Always cautious<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Last week, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Chinese stocks, predicting that the MSCI China Index would rise 14% by the end of next year. As early as mid-October, during the stock market correction, Morgan Stanley stated that a good time to buy Chinese stocks had arrived.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We reaffirm our confidence in the Chinese stock market. In a report, Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight rating on the MSCI China Index, expecting the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to return as much as 16% in the next 12 months, and as high as 19% and 21% when exchange rate factors are taken into account. Goldman Sachs also upgraded Hong Kong stocks from underweight to even weight.</p><p>In addition, Hillhouse Capital remains optimistic about Chinese assets, with HHLR Advisors, its fund management firm specializing in secondary investments, reporting a third-quarter outlook.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary Creatures</a>Nine Chinese concept stocks, including those listed above, underwent increased holdings, new purchases, and other operations. We remain optimistic about new energy and have increased our holdings in Daquan New Energy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>。</p><p>Allianz Investment All China Equity<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUND\">Fund</a>Manager Anthony Wong said earlier that the A-share market is best suited to seize (outperform) opportunities because it has a large number of new economy companies and is relatively unaffected by external fluctuations.</p><p>The market's performance did not disappoint Wall Street banks. This month, the MSCI China Index surged nearly 24%, poised for its best monthly performance since 1999. Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>The index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index are also in technical bull market territory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675561\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675561","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285027318","content_text":"花旗认为，当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。华尔街再次将目光聚焦在中国，花旗最近将中国香港股市上调至超配。在11月20日周日发表的一份报告中，花旗策略分析师Robert Buckland团队认为：当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于稳住当前中国股票每股收益的下滑，对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。最近几周，中国香港的恒生指数已经进入牛市，上证综指也在测试17年来的长期技术支撑位后，连续反弹。对于其他亚洲经济体，花旗将韩国的评级下调至减持，理由是韩国的收益会出现收缩；对印度保持中性；对马来西亚上调至增持；将印度尼西亚下调至中性。最近看涨中国市场的，不只是花旗。一向谨慎的摩根士丹利上周上调了对中国股市的目标价，预计MSCI中国指数到明年年底将上涨14%，大摩早在10月中旬股市回调之际表示，买入中国股票的好时机已到。本月早些时候，高盛重申对中国股市的信心。在一份报告中，高盛维持对MSCI中国指数的超配评级，预计MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数在未来12个月回报率高达16%，若计入汇率因素，其回报更是高达19%和21%。高盛还将中国香港股票从低配上调至平配。此外，高瓴资本继续看好中国资产，旗下专攻二级投资的基金管理机构HHLR Advisors三季度对拼多多、传奇生物等9只中概股进行了增持、新进买入等加仓操作；继续看好新能源，加仓大全新能源与晶科能源。安联投资All China Equity Fund基金经理Anthony Wong早些时候表示，A股市场最适合抓住（跑赢大盘）机会，因为该市场有大量新经济企业，而且相对不受外部波动的影响。市场的表现也没有令华尔街大行失望。本月，MSCI中国指数大幅上涨近24%，有望创下1999年以来最佳月度表现。香港恒生中国企业指数和纳斯达克金龙中国指数也处于技术性牛市区域。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914652037,"gmtCreate":1665278436629,"gmtModify":1676537580478,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914652037","repostId":"2273357388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273357388","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665200770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273357388?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-08 11:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What are Biden's chances of winning the midterm elections?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273357388","media":"格隆汇","summary":"为何中期选举如此重要？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The primary elections for the US midterm elections have ended, and the final elections will begin in early November. The midterm elections will determine the party affiliation in the House of Representatives, thereby influencing the future direction and effectiveness of Biden's administration. So, what should we vote for in the midterm elections? Why are the midterm elections so important? Will Biden lose the House? This report analyzes this.</p><p><h3>1. What are the important elections in the United States?</h3>Before we talk about the midterm elections,<b>First, we need to develop a basic understanding of the American political system.</b></p><p><b>The political foundation of the \"separation of powers\".</b>The U.S. Constitution divides the powers of the federal government into three parts, allowing for checks and balances and mutual independence. Legislative power is in the hands of Congress, which is divided into two parts: the Senate and the House of Representatives, whose responsibilities, powers, and number of members are very different. Executive power is delegated to the president and the White House. Judicial power rests with the Supreme Court, which is decided by nine lifetime Supreme Court Justices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda36251c8cb459ed05bc0e479d422f4\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Executive power is exercised by the President of the United States and Cabinet members</b>。 The United States<b>Presidential election</b>，<b>Commonly known as the general election</b>It is also an extremely popular international event held every four years. Presidential elections are based on the Electoral College system, which is unique to the United States.<b>First,</b>The electors of each state are chosen by the votes of the electors.<b>Then,</b>The electors who receive the most votes in the state then vote for the presidential candidate on behalf of the entire state's voters.<b>in the end</b>The candidate who receives more than 270 votes out of 538 electoral votes will win. Furthermore, it's worth noting that each state's electors hold the same number of votes as its members of Congress, and the number of House seats is determined by the state's total population, so states with larger populations also have more votes. Generally speaking, the more electoral votes a president receives, the greater the total number of voters supporting him. However, there have been five special cases in history where the winning president lagged behind in total electoral votes but had a lead in electoral votes. For example, in 2016, Trump, although lagging behind by nearly 3 million electoral votes, won the election by a significant margin of 77 electoral votes (14% of the total vote).</p><p><b>Cabinet members are not involved in elections</b>Appointed by and accountable to the President. Typically, the successor president proposes cabinet nominees to the Senate before taking the oath of office. More than 20 cabinet positions, such as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, require the opinions of relevant Senate committees, and then the Senate votes on them, requiring a majority vote to pass.</p><p><b>In addition to electing the cabinet, the president has the following five main powers. First,</b>Nominate him for federal positions such as the Supreme Court Justice and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.<b>Second,</b>The passage or rejection of bills passed by Congress serves as the final hurdle in the legislative process.<b>Third,</b>The power to sign executive orders, that is, to legislate indirectly by issuing executive orders to federal agencies.<b>Fourth,</b>Pardon power, that is, the president can pardon some people who have violated federal law.<b>Fifth,</b>Military command: As the supreme commander of the U.S. military, the president can request Congress to exercise the power to declare war, and can also command the U.S. military in both wartime and non-wartime.<b>in addition</b>The president can participate in diplomacy, declare a national emergency, and sign international treaties with the approval of the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc6092dbae8224d63a5d5d59f1642fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Legislative power is exercised by Congress</b>。 Congress is involved<b>Senator</b>and<b>Congressman</b>The election. At the same time as each election, the U.S. Congress is also in the process of changing its leadership. But unlike a presidential election,<b>Congressional elections are not held only in election years, but every even-numbered year. Mid-term elections</b>This is the process by which members of Congress are re-elected during the president's term, two years after the president takes office. Representatives serve two-year terms, meaning the entire House of Representatives needs to be re-elected every two years. The term of the Senate is six years, but the 100 members are divided into three staggered batches (33, 33, and 34 members respectively), so that one-third of the Senate is replaced every two years. In total, there are about 468 congressional seats waiting for new owners in each general and midterm election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cec6ac0276cbc86e3f215aaf0f35540\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Members are determined by universal suffrage.</b>In<b>Electoral system</b>Previously, parliamentary elections did not use the electoral system, but were directly determined by universal suffrage. Senators are elected by statewide residents, while House members are elected only by residents of the district themselves. Congress<b>Election Process</b>Usually divided into<b>Three stages</b>: Primary, Final, Final.<b>First</b>Primary elections are an election process within each party. Each party needs to elect a party candidate for each congressional seat.<b>Secondly</b>For most states in the United States, if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the primary, the top two candidates with the most votes will advance to the next round of competition.<b>Runner-up</b>。<b>in the end</b>The party candidates who win the primaries and runoffs will travel to Washington to compete against candidates from other parties, which is the final election and the last step in the congressional reshuffle.</p><p>Because each state has a different election schedule, the primary and runoff elections last about six months, usually between March and September of an election year, while the final election is usually held on the second Tuesday of November of that year. This year's final election will be held on November 8, and the final election results will be announced by each state in November and December. The newly elected 118th members of Congress are scheduled to take office on January 3, 2023. The state primaries have now concluded, meaning the party races are over. More than 400 winners of both parties' primaries will compete in Washington, D.C., three months later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376f5d1fdca5627a30e5c7153b86373d\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judicial power is exercised by the Chief Justice.</b>Supreme Court justices are nominated by the President of the United States and must be approved by a majority vote of the Senate. on account of<b>The term of office of the Chief Justice is for life.</b>Vacancies for presidential nomination only arise when a current Supreme Court justice dies, retires voluntarily, or is removed from office. The inauguration process of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Jackson is a typical example of a judicial transition:<b>First</b>Biden nominated Jackson on February 25 to replace Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, who voluntarily retired in January.<b>subsequently</b>The Senate voted on Jackson on April 7 and passed it 53-47.<b>in the end</b>Jackson was sworn in on June 30th of this year. There are currently no vacant Supreme Court seats awaiting re-election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885b7e4a220c570c9f7d7f433bff57c4\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Supreme Court interprets the Constitution</b>。 The Supreme Court's ruling is based on the nine justices' interpretation of the Constitution, so it is the final ruling of the entire judicial system and can only be overturned by amending the Constitution through Congress. Therefore, under the American case law system, a Supreme Court justice's ruling is a...<b>Indirect \"legislative\" behavior</b>。 Combining such supreme power, lifetime tenure, and subjectivity in interpreting the Constitution, the political leanings of the Supreme Court justices play a crucial role in American society as a whole. Although the justices' political party information is not public, their political leanings can be clearly reflected in their decisions and statements. The current Supreme Court consists of six Republican-leaning justices and three Democratic-leaning justices. Under such a long-standing conservative dominance, the Republican Party uses the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Constitution to promote its political ideology, subtly changing the direction of the legal and social environment in the United States, such as promoting big government and restricting equal rights.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf187581b0026bfb8614a65297ebbd7\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The governor's race is also worth watching.</b>This year, 36 gubernatorial seats are up for election, and the election process for governor is similar to that of congressional elections, consisting of two stages: a primary, a runoff, and a final election. The governor is the highest point of executive power in each state, and therefore has similar powers to the president, the highest office in the federal executive system, and has even greater influence in the state than the president. These powers benefit from the fact that the U.S. Constitution allows states to maintain a certain degree of independence. Because state laws vary from state to state, the powers of the governor also differ, but generally speaking, they fall into the following five categories:<b>First,</b>To pass or reject state law bills proposed by the state legislature;<b>Second</b>Approve the state's budget and appropriations;<b>Third</b>Appointing officials of state administrative agencies with the approval of the state legislature;<b>Fourth</b>Signing state-level executive orders;<b>Fifth</b>Declare a state of emergency in the state to invoke emergency privileges.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f602073a8f15ab36dea3693ddb66b80\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve system is outside the three branches of government.</b>As the central bank of the United States, its operations and decision-making<b>Independent of the federal government</b>Mainly dedicated to formulating<b>Monetary policy</b>and to the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>To conduct supervision, etc. The Federal Reserve mainly consists of three parts: the Federal Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Federal Board of Governors at its core. The Governing Council implements monetary policy through the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, and its members and the chairmen of each Federal Reserve Bank form the Federal Open Market Committee. Members of the Federal Reserve Board are directly nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by a vote of the Senate for a term of 14 years and are not eligible for*. The terms of office of the directors are staggered by two years, meaning that a new director takes office every even-numbered year. The Chairman's term of office is 4 years and he can*until the end of his 14-year term as a member. Similar to senators, the Fed's exceptionally long term and biennial leadership rotation ensure its medium- to long-term independence, free from excessive influence from the ruling party.</p><p><h3>2. Why are the midterm elections important?</h3><b>The midterm elections involve the re-election of members of Congress.</b>Congress's primary authority lies in legislation. From government budgets to defense bills, laws large and small need to go through a lengthy congressional process. In addition to legislation, Congress has the following important powers: First,<b>Power to amend the Constitution</b>； Second, \"<b>\"Money Purse Rights\"</b>That is, the power to exercise appropriations through the three major committees of appropriations, budget, and fund-raising; Thirdly, some<b>military power</b>This mainly includes the power to declare war and the power to provide military funding. In addition to the above powers,<b>The Senate and the House of Representatives each have their own privileges</b></p><p>In the Senate,<b>First</b>The main privilege is<b>Approval of federal positions nominated by the President</b>This includes cabinet members, the Supreme Court Justice, and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Only during the recess of Congress and the Senate can the president use his recess appointment power to appoint officials of his choice without Senate approval, but the Senate has also developed some cumbersome new countermeasures in recent years to circumvent this presidential prerogative.<b>Secondly</b>The Senate needs to consider any proposal made by the House of Representatives.<b>Recall motion for vote ruling</b>。<b>Finally,</b>The Senate also has the power to ratify and adopt international treaties.</p><p>In the House of Representatives,<b>First,</b>The most important privilege is<b>Initiate fiscal and tax-related proposals</b>。 Any bill involving fiscal revenue must be introduced by the House of Representatives.<b>Secondly,</b>The House of Representatives owns<b>recall</b>The rights of any federal official cover the entire political system, including the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, and even the president. Historically, three U.S. presidents have been formally impeached by the House of Representatives: Johnson, Clinton, and Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14761046bda55cce9fd58e6bfbc3a8d0\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Senate represents the interests of the states</b>。 Regardless of the size, population, or economic situation of each state, all 50 states in the United States equally hold two Senate seats, for a total of 100 senators. The current Senate party distribution consists of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Libertarians. Because the two liberal senators lean politically toward the Democratic Party, the two parties have evenly matched voting rights in the Senate. In addition to the senators, the Senate has a separate presidency, which is held by the incumbent vice president. Therefore, when the Senate fails to reach a majority vote, the Senate President will have the right to cast an additional deciding vote. Currently, US Vice President Harris is a Democrat.<b>The Senate as a whole is controlled by the Democrats.</b></p><p>The Senate's special term and rotation system, for<b>Checks and balances between the president and the House of</b>It plays a crucial role. The term of office for senators is six years, and the 100 senators are divided into three batches, one of which is replaced every two years. Compared to representatives and presidents, senators have longer terms and can focus more on the long-term interests of the country than on short-term achievements, *, and elections. At the same time, a batch of leadership changes every two years can ensure that there is enough fresh blood in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856f4c50d5110ca20dbd359766bfceeb\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The House of Representatives is allocated seats in proportion to its population.</b>。 The U.S. Constitution first allocates 435 seats to the House of Representatives based on the proportions of each state's population according to the latest census. At the same time, districts are redrawn within each state based on population and the number of seats in the state, and each seat will represent that district in Congress. Following the latest census in 2020, the number of seats in 13 states has changed. Of these, seven states saw a decrease in the number of voters, and five were Democratic-led. There were six increases in numbers, and four were Republican-dominated. Overall, Republican-dominated states gained more seats. This year, as the first House of Representatives election since the new gerrymandering, may be particularly advantageous for the Republican Party.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcb3c079613d1b1683580897d7dffab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How are typical bills enacted?</b>We have compiled a typical bill-making process:<b>First step</b>Any member of the Senate or the House of Representatives may<b>drafting</b>A proposal.<b>Step Two</b>The bill is being drafted in the House of Representatives.<b>publicity</b>。<b>Step Three</b>After the bill was publicized, it was allocated to one of the chambers.<b>The Committee further studied</b>。 During the study process, the committee may hold notarial meetings to invite experts and officials from administrative agencies to express their opinions.<b>Step 4</b>The committee allocated the bills to more specialized agencies.<b>Subcommittee conducts research</b>Amend and vote on whether to refer the proposal back to the committee for the next step.<b>Step 5</b>The committee considered the proposal.<b>revision</b>And vote on whether to put the bill to a full vote in the House.<b>Step 6</b>This House will proceed to vote. such as<b>If passed, the bill will be sent to another chamber.</b>Repeat steps 1 through 6. In this process, Congress can open<b>Consultative Committee,</b>Coordinate different versions of the bill in both chambers.<b>Step 7</b>If the consultative committee members successfully help both houses reach a consensus, a consultation report must be prepared and submitted by...<b>The two chambers voted separately.</b>Through.<b>Step 8</b>After the same version of the bill is passed by both houses of parliament, it will be...<b>Send to the President</b>。 The president must make a decision on the bill within 10 days.<b>Pass or reject</b>If the deadline is not met, the proposal will be automatically passed. If the president exercises his veto power, Congress can try to override the president's veto power by voting. The president's veto would be overridden if both houses passed the bill by at least two-thirds of the vote.<b>The legislation was successful.</b></p><p>In the Senate's legislative process, members can use certain Senate-specific tactics to interfere with the vote on a bill, the most prominent of which is...<b>Obstruction of proceedings</b>。 Because the Senate stipulates that members can express their views for an unlimited period of time without being interrupted, weaker parties can use \"obstruction matters\" to deliver a speech lasting dozens of hours to obstruct the Senate voting process. The threatening effect of obstruction is now unlikely to take effect, and the Senate can pass 60 votes to limit the speaking time of a member.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e621ce8dcebb55448dac306445dd3f\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h3>3. Will Biden lose the House of Representatives?</h3><b>The ruling party often loses the House of Representatives in midterm elections.</b>Historically, in midterm elections, the ruling party usually loses a large number of congressional seats. In the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the ruling party has lost an average of 28 House of Representatives seats, accounting for about 6% of the total. Lost an average of 4 Senate seats, or 4% of the total seats. If we look at a more recent period, from 1975 to the present, in the last 12 midterm elections,<b>83% of the ruling party lost the support of the House of Representatives</b>It is clear that the House of Representatives is the ruling party's biggest nightmare in the midterm elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e64b0c61909b39e4237f9f242936a61\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some scholars have attempted to explain this phenomenon, with two of the more mainstream theories being:<b>skirt effect</b>and<b>Presidential punishment</b>。<b>skirt effect</b>This means that when the president becomes popular in the general election, he will guide voters to support members of that party in entering Congress. By the time of the midterm elections two years later, voters had become apathetic and dissatisfied with unfulfilled campaign manifestos, and their enthusiasm for voting had decreased significantly.<b>Presidential punishment</b>This means that voters are more willing to vote when they are angry, and if the turnout and number of angry voters (mostly from opposing parties) are greater than that of satisfied voters, then the president's camp is more likely to lose a congressional seat. This year, Republican voter enthusiasm was much higher than in the 2018 midterm elections, while Democratic voter enthusiasm was low. It can be inferred that,<b>High enthusiasm for voting in the primary election may mean that Republican voters will also turn out more in the final election.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371ded2b24ed57e52a4da42729ecfcaa\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Approval ratings determine who wins the House of Representatives.</b>Statistics show that there is a significant correlation between a president's approval rating during the midterm elections and the number of congressional seats lost by the ruling party in that election. The lower the president's approval rating in the midterm elections, the more House of Representatives seats he loses. According to statistics from the authoritative election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight, Biden's approval rating during this period ranks last among presidents in nearly 80 years, and his current approval rating is slightly higher than Reagan and Trump by an extremely narrow margin. Biden has a very high probability of losing a significant number of congressional seats.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8736610e36aa98adc53c1f6ce86aa93\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Senate Democrats lead.</b>According to FiveThirtyEight's late September Senate midterm election model, Democrats currently have a higher probability of winning the Senate than Republicans, with a Democratic chance of winning of about 70% and a lead of about 1-2 seats. This lead was hard-won, and the Republicans maintained a stable advantage until the end of July. With the passage of the chip bill, Biden's approval rating rose steadily, leading the Democrats to gradually take the lead in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3836db86afb5d69117db369191293\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>House Republicans lead</b>。 Also according to FiveThirtyEight's House forecast model, Republicans have a significant lead in the House of Representatives by about 70%, and are expected to gain about 17 more seats than Democrats, equivalent to 4% of the total seats. This is mainly due to two reasons: First, after the 2020 census, the population growth rate of Republican-dominated states was higher than that of Democratic-dominated states, so the Republicans gained more House seats. On the other hand, this year, more Democratic House members have chosen to retire and no longer seek*, thus giving Republicans more opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57de9db5b284f0debd0a0c32249c6a8e\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Biden's administration will face limitations if he loses both houses of parliament.</b>。 According to FiveThirtyEight's comprehensive model prediction, Biden has a nearly 30% probability of losing both the Senate and House of Representatives, becoming the so-called \"<b>Lame Duck President</b>It has executive power but loses the legislative power of Congress. In fact,<b>\"Lame duck president\" is not uncommon in history</b>In 10 of the 25 sessions of Congress over the past 50 years (40%), both houses were controlled by the president's opposing party. Six of the nine presidents lost the support of both houses during their term in office.</p><p><b>Losing congressional support would mean</b>First of all,<b>In the legislative power of Congress</b>Biden may need to make significant concessions and compromises to the Republican Party to advance his policies. Secondly,<b>On \"money pocket rights\"</b>Biden's Democratic Party will find it more difficult to introduce bills related to core Democratic political ideals, such as tax increases. Finally,<b>On the right to amend the constitution and military power</b>We don't expect it to have much of an impact. Furthermore, losing Congress would not have a significant impact on monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve system is subject to congressional oversight, its decision-making is relatively independent.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the privileges of each parliament</b>Given the high probability of Biden losing the House of Representatives, he is expected to lose the initiative in implementing tax and fiscal policies, making it more difficult for the United States to pass fiscal subsidy bills for domestic industries in the future. If he unfortunately loses the Senate, his privileges may have little impact on Biden's administration. The Senate's main prerogative lies in approving federal officials appointed by the president. Currently, the probability of personnel changes at the federal level is low, the Supreme Court justices are relatively healthy, and the terms of Federal Reserve officials have only just begun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aa68553eceed97850929f4bb0acd0b\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes, economic recovery falling short of expectations, risk of calculation deviations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are Biden's chances of winning the midterm elections?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are Biden's chances of winning the midterm elections?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-08 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The primary elections for the US midterm elections have ended, and the final elections will begin in early November. The midterm elections will determine the party affiliation in the House of Representatives, thereby influencing the future direction and effectiveness of Biden's administration. So, what should we vote for in the midterm elections? Why are the midterm elections so important? Will Biden lose the House? This report analyzes this.</p><p><h3>1. What are the important elections in the United States?</h3>Before we talk about the midterm elections,<b>First, we need to develop a basic understanding of the American political system.</b></p><p><b>The political foundation of the \"separation of powers\".</b>The U.S. Constitution divides the powers of the federal government into three parts, allowing for checks and balances and mutual independence. Legislative power is in the hands of Congress, which is divided into two parts: the Senate and the House of Representatives, whose responsibilities, powers, and number of members are very different. Executive power is delegated to the president and the White House. Judicial power rests with the Supreme Court, which is decided by nine lifetime Supreme Court Justices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda36251c8cb459ed05bc0e479d422f4\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Executive power is exercised by the President of the United States and Cabinet members</b>。 The United States<b>Presidential election</b>，<b>Commonly known as the general election</b>It is also an extremely popular international event held every four years. Presidential elections are based on the Electoral College system, which is unique to the United States.<b>First,</b>The electors of each state are chosen by the votes of the electors.<b>Then,</b>The electors who receive the most votes in the state then vote for the presidential candidate on behalf of the entire state's voters.<b>in the end</b>The candidate who receives more than 270 votes out of 538 electoral votes will win. Furthermore, it's worth noting that each state's electors hold the same number of votes as its members of Congress, and the number of House seats is determined by the state's total population, so states with larger populations also have more votes. Generally speaking, the more electoral votes a president receives, the greater the total number of voters supporting him. However, there have been five special cases in history where the winning president lagged behind in total electoral votes but had a lead in electoral votes. For example, in 2016, Trump, although lagging behind by nearly 3 million electoral votes, won the election by a significant margin of 77 electoral votes (14% of the total vote).</p><p><b>Cabinet members are not involved in elections</b>Appointed by and accountable to the President. Typically, the successor president proposes cabinet nominees to the Senate before taking the oath of office. More than 20 cabinet positions, such as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, require the opinions of relevant Senate committees, and then the Senate votes on them, requiring a majority vote to pass.</p><p><b>In addition to electing the cabinet, the president has the following five main powers. First,</b>Nominate him for federal positions such as the Supreme Court Justice and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.<b>Second,</b>The passage or rejection of bills passed by Congress serves as the final hurdle in the legislative process.<b>Third,</b>The power to sign executive orders, that is, to legislate indirectly by issuing executive orders to federal agencies.<b>Fourth,</b>Pardon power, that is, the president can pardon some people who have violated federal law.<b>Fifth,</b>Military command: As the supreme commander of the U.S. military, the president can request Congress to exercise the power to declare war, and can also command the U.S. military in both wartime and non-wartime.<b>in addition</b>The president can participate in diplomacy, declare a national emergency, and sign international treaties with the approval of the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc6092dbae8224d63a5d5d59f1642fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Legislative power is exercised by Congress</b>。 Congress is involved<b>Senator</b>and<b>Congressman</b>The election. At the same time as each election, the U.S. Congress is also in the process of changing its leadership. But unlike a presidential election,<b>Congressional elections are not held only in election years, but every even-numbered year. Mid-term elections</b>This is the process by which members of Congress are re-elected during the president's term, two years after the president takes office. Representatives serve two-year terms, meaning the entire House of Representatives needs to be re-elected every two years. The term of the Senate is six years, but the 100 members are divided into three staggered batches (33, 33, and 34 members respectively), so that one-third of the Senate is replaced every two years. In total, there are about 468 congressional seats waiting for new owners in each general and midterm election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cec6ac0276cbc86e3f215aaf0f35540\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Members are determined by universal suffrage.</b>In<b>Electoral system</b>Previously, parliamentary elections did not use the electoral system, but were directly determined by universal suffrage. Senators are elected by statewide residents, while House members are elected only by residents of the district themselves. Congress<b>Election Process</b>Usually divided into<b>Three stages</b>: Primary, Final, Final.<b>First</b>Primary elections are an election process within each party. Each party needs to elect a party candidate for each congressional seat.<b>Secondly</b>For most states in the United States, if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the primary, the top two candidates with the most votes will advance to the next round of competition.<b>Runner-up</b>。<b>in the end</b>The party candidates who win the primaries and runoffs will travel to Washington to compete against candidates from other parties, which is the final election and the last step in the congressional reshuffle.</p><p>Because each state has a different election schedule, the primary and runoff elections last about six months, usually between March and September of an election year, while the final election is usually held on the second Tuesday of November of that year. This year's final election will be held on November 8, and the final election results will be announced by each state in November and December. The newly elected 118th members of Congress are scheduled to take office on January 3, 2023. The state primaries have now concluded, meaning the party races are over. More than 400 winners of both parties' primaries will compete in Washington, D.C., three months later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376f5d1fdca5627a30e5c7153b86373d\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judicial power is exercised by the Chief Justice.</b>Supreme Court justices are nominated by the President of the United States and must be approved by a majority vote of the Senate. on account of<b>The term of office of the Chief Justice is for life.</b>Vacancies for presidential nomination only arise when a current Supreme Court justice dies, retires voluntarily, or is removed from office. The inauguration process of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Jackson is a typical example of a judicial transition:<b>First</b>Biden nominated Jackson on February 25 to replace Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, who voluntarily retired in January.<b>subsequently</b>The Senate voted on Jackson on April 7 and passed it 53-47.<b>in the end</b>Jackson was sworn in on June 30th of this year. There are currently no vacant Supreme Court seats awaiting re-election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885b7e4a220c570c9f7d7f433bff57c4\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Supreme Court interprets the Constitution</b>。 The Supreme Court's ruling is based on the nine justices' interpretation of the Constitution, so it is the final ruling of the entire judicial system and can only be overturned by amending the Constitution through Congress. Therefore, under the American case law system, a Supreme Court justice's ruling is a...<b>Indirect \"legislative\" behavior</b>。 Combining such supreme power, lifetime tenure, and subjectivity in interpreting the Constitution, the political leanings of the Supreme Court justices play a crucial role in American society as a whole. Although the justices' political party information is not public, their political leanings can be clearly reflected in their decisions and statements. The current Supreme Court consists of six Republican-leaning justices and three Democratic-leaning justices. Under such a long-standing conservative dominance, the Republican Party uses the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Constitution to promote its political ideology, subtly changing the direction of the legal and social environment in the United States, such as promoting big government and restricting equal rights.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf187581b0026bfb8614a65297ebbd7\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The governor's race is also worth watching.</b>This year, 36 gubernatorial seats are up for election, and the election process for governor is similar to that of congressional elections, consisting of two stages: a primary, a runoff, and a final election. The governor is the highest point of executive power in each state, and therefore has similar powers to the president, the highest office in the federal executive system, and has even greater influence in the state than the president. These powers benefit from the fact that the U.S. Constitution allows states to maintain a certain degree of independence. Because state laws vary from state to state, the powers of the governor also differ, but generally speaking, they fall into the following five categories:<b>First,</b>To pass or reject state law bills proposed by the state legislature;<b>Second</b>Approve the state's budget and appropriations;<b>Third</b>Appointing officials of state administrative agencies with the approval of the state legislature;<b>Fourth</b>Signing state-level executive orders;<b>Fifth</b>Declare a state of emergency in the state to invoke emergency privileges.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f602073a8f15ab36dea3693ddb66b80\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve system is outside the three branches of government.</b>As the central bank of the United States, its operations and decision-making<b>Independent of the federal government</b>Mainly dedicated to formulating<b>Monetary policy</b>and to the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>To conduct supervision, etc. The Federal Reserve mainly consists of three parts: the Federal Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Federal Board of Governors at its core. The Governing Council implements monetary policy through the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, and its members and the chairmen of each Federal Reserve Bank form the Federal Open Market Committee. Members of the Federal Reserve Board are directly nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by a vote of the Senate for a term of 14 years and are not eligible for*. The terms of office of the directors are staggered by two years, meaning that a new director takes office every even-numbered year. The Chairman's term of office is 4 years and he can*until the end of his 14-year term as a member. Similar to senators, the Fed's exceptionally long term and biennial leadership rotation ensure its medium- to long-term independence, free from excessive influence from the ruling party.</p><p><h3>2. Why are the midterm elections important?</h3><b>The midterm elections involve the re-election of members of Congress.</b>Congress's primary authority lies in legislation. From government budgets to defense bills, laws large and small need to go through a lengthy congressional process. In addition to legislation, Congress has the following important powers: First,<b>Power to amend the Constitution</b>； Second, \"<b>\"Money Purse Rights\"</b>That is, the power to exercise appropriations through the three major committees of appropriations, budget, and fund-raising; Thirdly, some<b>military power</b>This mainly includes the power to declare war and the power to provide military funding. In addition to the above powers,<b>The Senate and the House of Representatives each have their own privileges</b></p><p>In the Senate,<b>First</b>The main privilege is<b>Approval of federal positions nominated by the President</b>This includes cabinet members, the Supreme Court Justice, and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Only during the recess of Congress and the Senate can the president use his recess appointment power to appoint officials of his choice without Senate approval, but the Senate has also developed some cumbersome new countermeasures in recent years to circumvent this presidential prerogative.<b>Secondly</b>The Senate needs to consider any proposal made by the House of Representatives.<b>Recall motion for vote ruling</b>。<b>Finally,</b>The Senate also has the power to ratify and adopt international treaties.</p><p>In the House of Representatives,<b>First,</b>The most important privilege is<b>Initiate fiscal and tax-related proposals</b>。 Any bill involving fiscal revenue must be introduced by the House of Representatives.<b>Secondly,</b>The House of Representatives owns<b>recall</b>The rights of any federal official cover the entire political system, including the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, and even the president. Historically, three U.S. presidents have been formally impeached by the House of Representatives: Johnson, Clinton, and Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14761046bda55cce9fd58e6bfbc3a8d0\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Senate represents the interests of the states</b>。 Regardless of the size, population, or economic situation of each state, all 50 states in the United States equally hold two Senate seats, for a total of 100 senators. The current Senate party distribution consists of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Libertarians. Because the two liberal senators lean politically toward the Democratic Party, the two parties have evenly matched voting rights in the Senate. In addition to the senators, the Senate has a separate presidency, which is held by the incumbent vice president. Therefore, when the Senate fails to reach a majority vote, the Senate President will have the right to cast an additional deciding vote. Currently, US Vice President Harris is a Democrat.<b>The Senate as a whole is controlled by the Democrats.</b></p><p>The Senate's special term and rotation system, for<b>Checks and balances between the president and the House of</b>It plays a crucial role. The term of office for senators is six years, and the 100 senators are divided into three batches, one of which is replaced every two years. Compared to representatives and presidents, senators have longer terms and can focus more on the long-term interests of the country than on short-term achievements, *, and elections. At the same time, a batch of leadership changes every two years can ensure that there is enough fresh blood in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856f4c50d5110ca20dbd359766bfceeb\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The House of Representatives is allocated seats in proportion to its population.</b>。 The U.S. Constitution first allocates 435 seats to the House of Representatives based on the proportions of each state's population according to the latest census. At the same time, districts are redrawn within each state based on population and the number of seats in the state, and each seat will represent that district in Congress. Following the latest census in 2020, the number of seats in 13 states has changed. Of these, seven states saw a decrease in the number of voters, and five were Democratic-led. There were six increases in numbers, and four were Republican-dominated. Overall, Republican-dominated states gained more seats. This year, as the first House of Representatives election since the new gerrymandering, may be particularly advantageous for the Republican Party.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcb3c079613d1b1683580897d7dffab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How are typical bills enacted?</b>We have compiled a typical bill-making process:<b>First step</b>Any member of the Senate or the House of Representatives may<b>drafting</b>A proposal.<b>Step Two</b>The bill is being drafted in the House of Representatives.<b>publicity</b>。<b>Step Three</b>After the bill was publicized, it was allocated to one of the chambers.<b>The Committee further studied</b>。 During the study process, the committee may hold notarial meetings to invite experts and officials from administrative agencies to express their opinions.<b>Step 4</b>The committee allocated the bills to more specialized agencies.<b>Subcommittee conducts research</b>Amend and vote on whether to refer the proposal back to the committee for the next step.<b>Step 5</b>The committee considered the proposal.<b>revision</b>And vote on whether to put the bill to a full vote in the House.<b>Step 6</b>This House will proceed to vote. such as<b>If passed, the bill will be sent to another chamber.</b>Repeat steps 1 through 6. In this process, Congress can open<b>Consultative Committee,</b>Coordinate different versions of the bill in both chambers.<b>Step 7</b>If the consultative committee members successfully help both houses reach a consensus, a consultation report must be prepared and submitted by...<b>The two chambers voted separately.</b>Through.<b>Step 8</b>After the same version of the bill is passed by both houses of parliament, it will be...<b>Send to the President</b>。 The president must make a decision on the bill within 10 days.<b>Pass or reject</b>If the deadline is not met, the proposal will be automatically passed. If the president exercises his veto power, Congress can try to override the president's veto power by voting. The president's veto would be overridden if both houses passed the bill by at least two-thirds of the vote.<b>The legislation was successful.</b></p><p>In the Senate's legislative process, members can use certain Senate-specific tactics to interfere with the vote on a bill, the most prominent of which is...<b>Obstruction of proceedings</b>。 Because the Senate stipulates that members can express their views for an unlimited period of time without being interrupted, weaker parties can use \"obstruction matters\" to deliver a speech lasting dozens of hours to obstruct the Senate voting process. The threatening effect of obstruction is now unlikely to take effect, and the Senate can pass 60 votes to limit the speaking time of a member.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e621ce8dcebb55448dac306445dd3f\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h3>3. Will Biden lose the House of Representatives?</h3><b>The ruling party often loses the House of Representatives in midterm elections.</b>Historically, in midterm elections, the ruling party usually loses a large number of congressional seats. In the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the ruling party has lost an average of 28 House of Representatives seats, accounting for about 6% of the total. Lost an average of 4 Senate seats, or 4% of the total seats. If we look at a more recent period, from 1975 to the present, in the last 12 midterm elections,<b>83% of the ruling party lost the support of the House of Representatives</b>It is clear that the House of Representatives is the ruling party's biggest nightmare in the midterm elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e64b0c61909b39e4237f9f242936a61\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some scholars have attempted to explain this phenomenon, with two of the more mainstream theories being:<b>skirt effect</b>and<b>Presidential punishment</b>。<b>skirt effect</b>This means that when the president becomes popular in the general election, he will guide voters to support members of that party in entering Congress. By the time of the midterm elections two years later, voters had become apathetic and dissatisfied with unfulfilled campaign manifestos, and their enthusiasm for voting had decreased significantly.<b>Presidential punishment</b>This means that voters are more willing to vote when they are angry, and if the turnout and number of angry voters (mostly from opposing parties) are greater than that of satisfied voters, then the president's camp is more likely to lose a congressional seat. This year, Republican voter enthusiasm was much higher than in the 2018 midterm elections, while Democratic voter enthusiasm was low. It can be inferred that,<b>High enthusiasm for voting in the primary election may mean that Republican voters will also turn out more in the final election.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371ded2b24ed57e52a4da42729ecfcaa\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Approval ratings determine who wins the House of Representatives.</b>Statistics show that there is a significant correlation between a president's approval rating during the midterm elections and the number of congressional seats lost by the ruling party in that election. The lower the president's approval rating in the midterm elections, the more House of Representatives seats he loses. According to statistics from the authoritative election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight, Biden's approval rating during this period ranks last among presidents in nearly 80 years, and his current approval rating is slightly higher than Reagan and Trump by an extremely narrow margin. Biden has a very high probability of losing a significant number of congressional seats.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8736610e36aa98adc53c1f6ce86aa93\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Senate Democrats lead.</b>According to FiveThirtyEight's late September Senate midterm election model, Democrats currently have a higher probability of winning the Senate than Republicans, with a Democratic chance of winning of about 70% and a lead of about 1-2 seats. This lead was hard-won, and the Republicans maintained a stable advantage until the end of July. With the passage of the chip bill, Biden's approval rating rose steadily, leading the Democrats to gradually take the lead in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3836db86afb5d69117db369191293\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>House Republicans lead</b>。 Also according to FiveThirtyEight's House forecast model, Republicans have a significant lead in the House of Representatives by about 70%, and are expected to gain about 17 more seats than Democrats, equivalent to 4% of the total seats. This is mainly due to two reasons: First, after the 2020 census, the population growth rate of Republican-dominated states was higher than that of Democratic-dominated states, so the Republicans gained more House seats. On the other hand, this year, more Democratic House members have chosen to retire and no longer seek*, thus giving Republicans more opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57de9db5b284f0debd0a0c32249c6a8e\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Biden's administration will face limitations if he loses both houses of parliament.</b>。 According to FiveThirtyEight's comprehensive model prediction, Biden has a nearly 30% probability of losing both the Senate and House of Representatives, becoming the so-called \"<b>Lame Duck President</b>It has executive power but loses the legislative power of Congress. In fact,<b>\"Lame duck president\" is not uncommon in history</b>In 10 of the 25 sessions of Congress over the past 50 years (40%), both houses were controlled by the president's opposing party. Six of the nine presidents lost the support of both houses during their term in office.</p><p><b>Losing congressional support would mean</b>First of all,<b>In the legislative power of Congress</b>Biden may need to make significant concessions and compromises to the Republican Party to advance his policies. Secondly,<b>On \"money pocket rights\"</b>Biden's Democratic Party will find it more difficult to introduce bills related to core Democratic political ideals, such as tax increases. Finally,<b>On the right to amend the constitution and military power</b>We don't expect it to have much of an impact. Furthermore, losing Congress would not have a significant impact on monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve system is subject to congressional oversight, its decision-making is relatively independent.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the privileges of each parliament</b>Given the high probability of Biden losing the House of Representatives, he is expected to lose the initiative in implementing tax and fiscal policies, making it more difficult for the United States to pass fiscal subsidy bills for domestic industries in the future. If he unfortunately loses the Senate, his privileges may have little impact on Biden's administration. The Senate's main prerogative lies in approving federal officials appointed by the president. Currently, the probability of personnel changes at the federal level is low, the Supreme Court justices are relatively healthy, and the terms of Federal Reserve officials have only just begun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aa68553eceed97850929f4bb0acd0b\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes, economic recovery falling short of expectations, risk of calculation deviations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555249\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b0ec49e09fe3649cc7f7f662e136c7","relate_stocks":{"FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555249","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2273357388","content_text":"美国中期选举初选已经结束，终选将于11月初开启。中期选举将决定参众议院的党派归属，从而影响未来拜登施政的方向与效果。那么，中期选举选什么？为何中期选举如此重要？拜登会输掉众议院吗？本报告对此展开分析。1. 美国重要选举有哪些？在谈论中期选举之前，首先我们需要对美国政治体系形成一个基础性的认识。“三权分立”的政治基础。美国宪法将联邦政府的职权一分为三，使得各方相互制衡、相互独立。其中立法权掌握在国会的手中，分为参议院与众议院两部分，其职责、权力、议员数量都大不相同。行政权被交付给总统和白宫。司法权在最高法院，由九位终身任职的最高大法官决定。行政权由美国总统和内阁成员行使。而美国的总统选举，俗称大选，也是四年一度的极为热门的国际事件。总统选举依据的是美国特有的选举人团制度（Electoral College）。首先，由每个州的选民票选出该州的选举人。然后，再由该州得票最多的选举人代表整个州的选民对总统候选人进行投票。最后，在538个选举人票中获得超过270票的候选人将获胜。此外，值得一提的是，每个州的选举人所持有的票数和该州的国会议员数量相同，而众议院席位数由该州总人口决定，因此人口多的州拥有的选票数额也更多。通常而言，总统获得的选举人票越多，则意味着支持他的选民总数也越多。然而历史上也出现过5次特殊情况，即获胜总统的总选民数量落后，但选举人票领先，如2016年特朗普虽落后近300万选民数，但以77张选举人票（14%总票数）的大幅领先而赢下大选。内阁成员不涉及选举，由总统任命并对其负责。通常，继任总统在宣誓入职前向参议院提出内阁人选，其中国防部长和国务卿等超过20个内阁职位需要参议院相关委员会出示意见，随后再由参议院投票，支持过半才能通过。除选阁之外，总统还有以下五大主要职权。第一，推举最高法官、美联储理事会成员等联邦职位。第二，对国会所通过的法案进行通过或否决，作为立法流程的最后一个关卡。第三，签署行政命令的权利，即通过向联邦机构发出行政命令来间接的立法。第四，赦免权，即总统可以对一些触犯了联邦法的人进行赦免。第五，军事指挥权，总统作为美国军队最高统领，可以要求国会行使宣战权，同时也可以在战时和非战时指挥美国军队。此外，总统可以参与外交，宣布国家紧急状态，以及在参议院的审批下签署国际条约。立法权由国会行使。国会则涉及参议员和众议员的选举。在每次大选进行的同时，美国国会同样也在换届的过程中。但有别于总统选举的是，国会选举并非仅在大选年进行，而是每个偶数年进行一次。中期选举也就是在总统上任的两年后，国会议员在总统任期中再度换届的过程。众议员的任期是两年，即每两年整个众议院都需要重新改选。参议院的任期是六年，但是100位议员被分为三个交错的批次（分别有33、33和34人），因此每两年都有1/3的参议院进行换届。总的来说，在每次大选和中期选举中，都会有约468名国会席位等待新的主人。议员由普选决定。在选举制度上，国会选举并不使用选举人制度，而是由普选直接决定。其中，参议员的选举由全州居民投选，而众议员则只由该辖区的居民自己投选。国会选举流程通常分为三个阶段：初选、决选、终选。首先，初选是一个各党派内部的选举过程。每个党派内需要为每一个国会席位票选出一个党内候选人。其次，对美国的大多数州来说，如果初选中没有候选人获得50%的票数，则得票最多的前两名候选人将进行下一轮角逐，即决选。最后，在初选和决选中胜出的党内候选人将前往华盛顿与其他党派的候选人一决胜负，而这就是终选，也是国会换届选举的最后一个环节。由于每个州的选举日程不同，初选和决选将持续约半年之久，通常在选举年的3月到9月间进行，而终选通常在当年11月第二个星期二。今年的终选将在11月8日举行，而最终的选举结果将陆续由各个州在11月和12月公布。新选举出的第118届国会议员将计划于2023年1月3日就任。目前各州初选已经结束，意味着党内角逐已经结束，四百余名两党初选的胜者将于三个月后在华盛顿特区一决高下。司法权由大法官行使。最高法院大法官由美国总统提名，需经参议院过半票数决议通过。由于大法官的任期为终身制，只有在现任大法官辞世、主动退休或被罢免，才会出现空缺供总统提名。大法官凯坦吉·杰克森的上任流程就是较为典型的司法换届过程：首先，拜登于今年2月25日提名杰克森来接替1月主动退休的大法官斯蒂芬布雷耶。随后，参议院于4月7日对杰克森投票并以53-47票通过。最后，杰克森于今年6月30日宣誓入职。目前没有空缺的大法官席位等待换届。大法官对宪法进行解读。最高法院的裁决依据的是九位大法官对宪法的解读，所以是整个司法体系的最终裁决，唯有通过国会修订宪法才可以推翻。因此，在美国的判例法制度下，最高法院大法官的裁决是一种间接“立法”行为。结合这样至高的权力、终身的任期和对宪法解读的主观性，大法官的政治倾向对整个美国社会都有着至关重要的作用。虽然大法官的政治党派信息是非公开的，但其政治倾向可以由其判决结果和声明清晰地反映出来。当前最高法院由6名倾向共和党和3名倾向民主党的大法官组成。在这样的长期保守派占优的现状下，共和党通过最高法院对于宪法的解读来推行自己的政治理念，潜移默化地改变美国的法律和社会环境发展方向，例如推行大政府和限制平权。州长的竞选也同样值得关注。今年共有36个州长席位改选，而州长的竞选方式与国会选举类似，也由初选决选以及终选两个环节组成。州长是每个州行政权的制高点，因此和联邦行政系统中最高职位的总统职权相似，在本州中其影响力甚至大于总统。这些权力得益于美国宪法允许各州保持一定的独立性。由于每个州的州法不同，州长的职权也不尽相同，但通常来说包括以下五大类：一是通过或否决州议院所提出的州法法案；二是审批本州的预算和拨款；三是在州议院审批下，任命州行政机关官员；四是签署州级行政命令；五是宣布本州进入紧急状态，以动用紧急状态下的特权。美联储系统在三权之外。作为美国的央行，其运营与决策独立于联邦政府，主要致力于制定货币政策和对美国金融机构进行监管等。美联储主要由美联储理事会、联储银行和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）这三个部分组成，其核心是美联储理事会。理事会通过12个联储银行来实施货币政策，而理事会的成员以及各联储银行的主席构建成联邦公开市场委员会。联储理事会的成员由美国总统直接提名，并由参议院投票确认，任期为14年且不可连任。理事的任期错开两年，即每偶数年都有新的理事上任。主席任期为4年且可以连任直至其14年理事任期结束。和参议员相似，超长的任期和两年一度的换届确保了联储在中长期的独立性，不受执政党派过多的影响。2. 中期选举为何重要？中期选举涉及国会议员改选。国会的主要职权在于立法，从政府预算到国防法案，大大小小的法律都需要经过冗长的国会流程来通过。除立法外，国会还有以下重要职权：一是修宪权；二是“钱袋权”，即通过拨款、预算和筹款三大委员会来实现拨款的权力；三是部分军权，主要包括宣战权和提供军费的权力。除以上职权外，参众两院各有特权。参议院方面，首先，最主要的特权是对总统推举的联邦职位进行批准，其中包括内阁成员、最高法官和美联储理事会成员。只有在国会参议院休会期间，总统可以使用休会任命权，在不经参议院批准的情况下任命自己推举的官员，但近年来参议院也有一些繁琐的新对策来规避这一总统特权。其次，参议院需要对任何众议院所提出的罢免提议进行投票裁决。最后，参议院还有权批准通过国际条约。众议院方面，首先，最重要特权是发起财政税收相关议案。但凡是涉及财政税收的议案，必须由众议院提出。其次，众议院拥有罢免任何联邦官员的权利，涵盖了行政、立法和司法整个政治体系，甚至包括总统。历史上曾有三位美国总统被众议院正式提出罢免，分别是约翰逊、克林顿和特朗普。参议院代表各州权益。无论各个州的面积、人口、经济状况如何，美国的50个州都平等的拥有两个参议院席位，总计100名参议员。当前的参议员政党分布为50名共和党员，48名民主党员及2名自由党派人士。由于两名自由党派参议员在政治方向上偏向民主党，因此两党阵营在参议院投票权旗鼓相当。在参议员之外，参议院另设有参议院主席职位，由在任副总统担任。因此当参议院未能决出多数票时，参议院主席将有权投出额外的一张决胜票。时下美国副总统哈里斯为民主党员，参议院整体受民主党控制。参议院特殊的任期和换届制度，对于制衡总统和众议院有着至关重要的作用。参议员的任期为6年，而100名参议员被一共分为3个批次，每两年对其中一个批次进行换届。与众议员和总统相比参议员有更长的任期，可以更着眼于国家的长期利益，而非致力于短期政绩、连任和选举。同时每两年进行一个批次的换届可以确保参议院中有足够多的新鲜血液。众议院按照人口比例分配席位。美国宪法先按照最新的人口普查中的各州的人口比例来分配435个众议员席位。同时，在每个州内根据人口和该州席位数量再划分选区，每个席位将在国会中代表这个选区。在2020年的最新人口普查后，共有13个州的席位数量发生变化。其中，7个州人数减少，5个是民主党主导；有6个人数增加，4个是共和党主导。总体来看，共和党主导的州获得了更多的席位。今年作为新的选区划分后的首次众议员选举，或对共和党格外有利。典型法案如何立法？我们整理出一个典型的法案立法过程：第一步，参议院或众议院中的任意一位议员可以起草一个议案。第二步，议案在起草议员所在的议院公示。第三步，议案在公示后被分配给该议院的一个委员会进一步研究。委员会在研究过程中可以开设公证会，邀请行政机构专家和官员发表意见。第四步，委员会将议案下分给更专业的附属委员会进行研究、修改和票决是否将议案移交回委员会进入下一步流程。第五步，委员会对议案进行修订，并票决是否将议案在该议院进行全体投票。第六步，本议院进行投票。如通过则将议案递送至另一议院，重复第1至6步流程。在此过程中，国会可以开设协商委员会，对两个议院不同版本的该议案进行协调。第七步，如果协商委员成功帮助两议院达成共识，则需撰写协商报告并由两个议院分别投票通过。第八步，同一版本的议案在两议院都得到投票通过后将被送至总统。总统需在10天内对议案进行决议通过或否决，逾期则议案自动通过。若总统行使否决权，国会可通过投票尝试推翻总统的否决权。只要两议院各以至少2/3的票数通过该法案，则总统的否决将被推翻，立法成功。在参议院的立法流程中，议员可以使用一些参议院特有的手段来干预一个法案的投票，其中最突出的是阻挠议事。由于参议院规定议员可以无限时长不被打断的发表观点，较弱势的党派可以使用“阻挠事宜”进行一段长达数十小时的发言，来阻碍参议院投票进程。阻挠事宜的威胁效果目前已经很难生效，参议院可以通过60票来为一个议员的发言时间设限。3.拜登会失去众议院吗？执政党中期选举往往丢掉众议院。从历史上来看，中期选举中，执政党通常会失去大量的国会席位。在从1934年至今的22次中期选举中，执政党平均丢掉28个众议院席位，约占总席位数约6%；平均失去4个参议院席位，即4%的总席位。如果考察更近的一段时间，从1975年至今的过去12次中期选举中，83%的执政党失去了众议院的支持，可见众议院是执政党在中期选举中最大的噩梦。部分学者尝试对这一现象进行解释，其中较为主流的两个理论分别是裙摆效应和总统惩罚。裙摆效应是指，总统在大选中受欢迎时，将引导选民支持该政党的议员进驻国会。而两年后中期选举时，选民已经冷淡，并对没有实现的竞选宣言感到不满，投票热情大幅降低。总统惩罚是指，选民在生气时投票的意愿更强，而如果生气的选民（大多是对立党派）投票率和数量大于满意的选民，那么总统的阵营更容易输掉国会席位。今年共和党的选民投票热情度较2018年中期选举高出很多，而民主党投票热情低迷。可以推测，初选的高投票热情度可能意味着共和党选民在终选中投票率也会更高。支持率决定众议院归属。经过数据统计，我们发现，总统在中期选举期间支持率的水平和该届中期选举执政党失去的国会席位数有较为明显的关系，中期支持率越低的总统，失去的众议院席位数也越多。根据权威选举预测网站FiveThirtyEight的统计，拜登的同期支持率在近80年来的总统中位列倒数，当前支持率以极其微弱的优势略高于里根和特朗普。拜登有极高概率失去较多的国会席位。参议院民主党领先。根据FiveThirtyEight九月下旬的参议院中期选举模型预测，当前民主党比共和党有更高概率赢下参议院，民主党的胜算约为70%且领先约1-2个席位。这一领先是得来不易的，直到7月底之前共和党都还保持着稳定的优势，而随着芯片法案的通过，拜登的支持率一路上行，才带领着民主党在参议院逐渐领跑。众议院共和党领先。同样根据FiveThirtyEight的众议院预测模型，共和党在众议院以约70%的优势大幅领先，预计将多出民主党约17个席位，折合4%的总席位数。这主要得益于两点：一方面，2020年人口普查后，共和党占主导的州人口增速高于民主党主导的州，因此共和党获得更多众议院席位。另一方面，今年有较多的民主党众议员选择退休不再谋取连任，因此给共和党更多机会。一旦失去两院，拜登执政将面临受限。根据FiveThirtyEight的综合模型预测，拜登有近三成概率失去参众两院，成为所谓的“跛脚鸭总统”，空有行政权却失去国会立法权。事实上，“跛脚鸭总统”在历史上并不少见，在过去50年的25届国会中，有10届（40%）中两院都是由总统的对立党派控制。9任总统中6任曾在执政期间失去两院的支持。如果失去国会的支持，则意味着：首先，在国会立法权上，拜登或需对共和党进行较大的让步和妥协来推进政策。其次，在“钱袋权”上，拜登所在的民主党将更难推出加税等民主党核心政治理念相关的法案。最后，在修宪权和军权上，我们预计将不会有太大影响。此外，丢掉国会对货币政策也不会有太大的影响，美联储系统虽受国会监督，但是其决策是相对独立的。从各议院的特权来看，由于拜登丢掉众议院概率较大，预计拜登在推行税收和财政政策上将失去主动权，未来美国通过对国内行业的财政补贴法案的难度或将上升。如果不幸丢掉参议院，其特权或对拜登执政影响不大。参议院的主要特权在于对批准总统任命的联邦官员，当前联邦层面人事变动概率较小，大法官均比较健康，而美联储官员任期也才刚刚开始。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期，测算偏差风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FOMC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914656416,"gmtCreate":1665278425535,"gmtModify":1676537580470,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914656416","repostId":"2273395314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914656251,"gmtCreate":1665278412374,"gmtModify":1676537580470,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914656251","repostId":"2273313719","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273313719","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665206863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273313719?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-08 13:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why hasn't the US labor market cooled down for so long after the significant rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273313719","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国新增就业对于美联储加息的反应具有滞后效应。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. non-farm payroll data for September 2022 exceeded expectations across the board: 263,000 new non-farm payrolls were added (Bloomberg consensus expected 250,000), the average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls from January to September reached 420,000, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 3.5% (expected 3.7%), and the labor force participation rate fell only slightly to 62.3%. With the job market still tight and wage growth still at a high 5% year-on-year, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rate hike will become even more resolute. Following the data release, Federal Funds rate Futures' prediction of a 75bp Fed rate hike in November rose from 85.5% to 92%, causing US stocks to turn lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It rose sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35b200f9c9c7619075df1b95d958f0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just a few months from March to September, the Federal Reserve has added a total of 300 basis points of rate hike, but the labor market has been slow to cool down, mainly due to the lag in employment data. Historically, the response of new jobs in the United States to the Federal Reserve's rate hike has been \"passive.\" rate hike can curb the upward trend in new non-farm payrolls, but the reversal of this trend often coincides with the peak of the rate hike cycle (Figure 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2937acc49eaf91e7321476716332699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Below, we analyze the September employment data from an industry perspective, with the leisure and hospitality industry and the education and healthcare services industry still showing the most significant growth (Figure 5). Employment in the leisure and hospitality industry increased by 83,000 jobs in September, the same as the average from January to August, with food services and drinking establishments alone adding 60,000 jobs. However, given that the number of employees in the leisure and hospitality industry is still lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, we expect employment growth in the industry to remain strong this year. Healthcare employment increased by 60,000 in September, recovering to the level of February 2020.<b>Despite the seasonal headwinds of young workers returning to school, the number of new non-farm payrolls in September was only slightly lower than in August, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed5885dd7c1e0fb8a097dd44a72cc43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since April, new non-farm payrolls have continued to exceed expectations. Although job vacancies have decreased, they remain at a high level, which means that the slowdown in employment growth will be gradual. The U.S. labor market remains resilient. The Atlanta Fed's model shows that the average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls in the U.S. from January to August 2022 was far higher than the number of new non-farm payrolls required under a target unemployment rate of 4% (Figure 6). All signs indicate that the U.S. economy remains strong, and the Atlanta Fed has revised its forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter upward to 2.7% (Figure 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f33e1575b4bdbe2f87178268ef5a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So when will the tight job market in the United States ease or even weaken? Observations can be made from four dimensions:</p><p>Dimension 1: Wage growth momentum; if it continues to slow down, it will send a positive signal to inflation. In September 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages in the U.S. private sector slowed to 5.0% (5.2% in August), while the adjusted annualized month-on-month growth rate (3-month moving average) fell to 4.4% (4.8% in August). However, the wage growth rate in the service industry remained high. As shown in Figure 8, the leisure and hotel industry, which had the highest growth rate, still saw a year-on-year wage growth rate of around 8% in August and September, unchanged from July and August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6a59779761943b363d85e6dfee4736\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 2: The easing of tensions on both the supply and demand sides of the labor force. Key indicators include job vacancies and turnover rates. Since April 2022, the number of job vacancies and turnover rates in the United States have continued to decline. In August, the job vacancy rates in the leisure accommodation industry, education and health services, and professional and business services decreased by 0.5 to 1 percentage point compared to July (Figures 9-10). Although the supply and demand situation in the U.S. labor market has improved and the easing of job demand in the service sector is expected to cause wage growth to slow down from its high level, job vacancies and turnover rates are still far higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cef7b37269f942eda746728c0eea075\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 3: Stagnation in the improvement of labor force participation rate.<b>We believe that the increase in labor force participation rates has basically peaked.</b>The increase in the labor force participation rate in August was due to the improved participation of young people during the summer vacation, which is a seasonal factor. Given that the employment rate of the prime age group has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, there is limited room for further recovery in the labor force participation rate (Figure 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04724cc3bd14acea9c98044cb455b75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 4: Leading indicator: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time continues to rise, indicating a weak job market. The number of initial unemployment claims is a high-frequency data point, and the sustained rise in this indicator usually precedes the steady decline in employment in the event of a weakening labor market. Although the trend of a continuous and significant decline in the number of initial unemployment claims has ended in 2021, it is currently (September 2022) still at a low level (Figure 12).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c34f44b285d02365d82dbb2d3dc14ce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Overall, only one of the four dimensions mentioned above was met, the easing of the tight US job market was less than expected, and the September non-farm payroll data will further solidify the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. As shown in Table 1, Federal Reserve officials are firm in their stance against inflation and do not believe that an economic recession is inevitable. Given that a tight labor market is a major driver behind high inflation, officials can generally tolerate the unemployment rate rising to 4% or higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b212099f382505e81c4768b52aa1412\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The slowdown in inflationary pressures requires weak economic data and signs of weakness to persist for some time. The weaker-than-expected easing of the tight labor market means that the decline in wage growth remains slow. Therefore, it is still highly likely that service sector inflation will ease less than expected, and the probability of rate hike reaching 75 basis points in November has further increased. As we pointed out in our previous report, given the still significant risk of an unexpected rise in inflation, the upside risk of policy interest rates is higher than the downside risk.<b>Therefore, the 2023 rate hike forecast of 4.6% shown in the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September may still be revised upwards.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d763a38a7e6e238b18a69f508a906a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why hasn't the US labor market cooled down for so long after the significant rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy hasn't the US labor market cooled down for so long after the significant rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-08 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. non-farm payroll data for September 2022 exceeded expectations across the board: 263,000 new non-farm payrolls were added (Bloomberg consensus expected 250,000), the average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls from January to September reached 420,000, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 3.5% (expected 3.7%), and the labor force participation rate fell only slightly to 62.3%. With the job market still tight and wage growth still at a high 5% year-on-year, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rate hike will become even more resolute. Following the data release, Federal Funds rate Futures' prediction of a 75bp Fed rate hike in November rose from 85.5% to 92%, causing US stocks to turn lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It rose sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35b200f9c9c7619075df1b95d958f0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just a few months from March to September, the Federal Reserve has added a total of 300 basis points of rate hike, but the labor market has been slow to cool down, mainly due to the lag in employment data. Historically, the response of new jobs in the United States to the Federal Reserve's rate hike has been \"passive.\" rate hike can curb the upward trend in new non-farm payrolls, but the reversal of this trend often coincides with the peak of the rate hike cycle (Figure 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2937acc49eaf91e7321476716332699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Below, we analyze the September employment data from an industry perspective, with the leisure and hospitality industry and the education and healthcare services industry still showing the most significant growth (Figure 5). Employment in the leisure and hospitality industry increased by 83,000 jobs in September, the same as the average from January to August, with food services and drinking establishments alone adding 60,000 jobs. However, given that the number of employees in the leisure and hospitality industry is still lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, we expect employment growth in the industry to remain strong this year. Healthcare employment increased by 60,000 in September, recovering to the level of February 2020.<b>Despite the seasonal headwinds of young workers returning to school, the number of new non-farm payrolls in September was only slightly lower than in August, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed5885dd7c1e0fb8a097dd44a72cc43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since April, new non-farm payrolls have continued to exceed expectations. Although job vacancies have decreased, they remain at a high level, which means that the slowdown in employment growth will be gradual. The U.S. labor market remains resilient. The Atlanta Fed's model shows that the average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls in the U.S. from January to August 2022 was far higher than the number of new non-farm payrolls required under a target unemployment rate of 4% (Figure 6). All signs indicate that the U.S. economy remains strong, and the Atlanta Fed has revised its forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter upward to 2.7% (Figure 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f33e1575b4bdbe2f87178268ef5a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So when will the tight job market in the United States ease or even weaken? Observations can be made from four dimensions:</p><p>Dimension 1: Wage growth momentum; if it continues to slow down, it will send a positive signal to inflation. In September 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages in the U.S. private sector slowed to 5.0% (5.2% in August), while the adjusted annualized month-on-month growth rate (3-month moving average) fell to 4.4% (4.8% in August). However, the wage growth rate in the service industry remained high. As shown in Figure 8, the leisure and hotel industry, which had the highest growth rate, still saw a year-on-year wage growth rate of around 8% in August and September, unchanged from July and August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6a59779761943b363d85e6dfee4736\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 2: The easing of tensions on both the supply and demand sides of the labor force. Key indicators include job vacancies and turnover rates. Since April 2022, the number of job vacancies and turnover rates in the United States have continued to decline. In August, the job vacancy rates in the leisure accommodation industry, education and health services, and professional and business services decreased by 0.5 to 1 percentage point compared to July (Figures 9-10). Although the supply and demand situation in the U.S. labor market has improved and the easing of job demand in the service sector is expected to cause wage growth to slow down from its high level, job vacancies and turnover rates are still far higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cef7b37269f942eda746728c0eea075\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 3: Stagnation in the improvement of labor force participation rate.<b>We believe that the increase in labor force participation rates has basically peaked.</b>The increase in the labor force participation rate in August was due to the improved participation of young people during the summer vacation, which is a seasonal factor. Given that the employment rate of the prime age group has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, there is limited room for further recovery in the labor force participation rate (Figure 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04724cc3bd14acea9c98044cb455b75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 4: Leading indicator: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time continues to rise, indicating a weak job market. The number of initial unemployment claims is a high-frequency data point, and the sustained rise in this indicator usually precedes the steady decline in employment in the event of a weakening labor market. Although the trend of a continuous and significant decline in the number of initial unemployment claims has ended in 2021, it is currently (September 2022) still at a low level (Figure 12).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c34f44b285d02365d82dbb2d3dc14ce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Overall, only one of the four dimensions mentioned above was met, the easing of the tight US job market was less than expected, and the September non-farm payroll data will further solidify the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. As shown in Table 1, Federal Reserve officials are firm in their stance against inflation and do not believe that an economic recession is inevitable. Given that a tight labor market is a major driver behind high inflation, officials can generally tolerate the unemployment rate rising to 4% or higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b212099f382505e81c4768b52aa1412\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The slowdown in inflationary pressures requires weak economic data and signs of weakness to persist for some time. The weaker-than-expected easing of the tight labor market means that the decline in wage growth remains slow. Therefore, it is still highly likely that service sector inflation will ease less than expected, and the probability of rate hike reaching 75 basis points in November has further increased. As we pointed out in our previous report, given the still significant risk of an unexpected rise in inflation, the upside risk of policy interest rates is higher than the downside risk.<b>Therefore, the 2023 rate hike forecast of 4.6% shown in the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September may still be revised upwards.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d763a38a7e6e238b18a69f508a906a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671869\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53d71c62ddd4425ec8578b3c9c99de3","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273313719","content_text":"2022年9月美国非农数据全面超预期：新增非农就业26.3万人（彭博一致预期25万人），1至9月月均新增非农就业人数高达42万人，失业率下降0.2%至3.5%（预期3.7%），劳动力参与率仅略降至62.3%。就业市场仍紧俏，薪资同比增速仍居5%的高位下，美联储加息的鹰派态度将更为坚定。数据发布后，联邦基金利率期货预测11月美联储加息75bp的可能性由85.5%升至92%，美股转跌，美元指数直线拉升。在3-9月短短几个月的时间，美联储已经共计加息300bp，可是劳动力市场的降温却迟迟没有到来，主要原因在于就业数据的滞后性。从历史数据上看，美国新增就业对于美联储加息的反应是“钝化”的，加息可以抑制住新增非农就业数的上行趋势，但该趋势的逆转往往与加息周期的峰值同步（图3）。下面我们从行业维度来分析9月就业数据，其中增长最为显著的行业仍为休闲和酒店业以及教育和保健服务业（图5）。休闲和酒店业就业9月增加了8.3万个工作岗位，持平于1-8月的均值，其中仅食品服务和饮酒场所就业便增加6万人。不过鉴于休闲和酒店业就业人数与疫情前水平仍有差距，我们预计年内该行业的就业增长仍将维持强劲的态势。9月医疗保健就业人数增加6万人，已恢复至2020年2月的水平。尽管存在青年劳动力返校的季节性逆风因素，但9月非农新增就业数仅略低于8月，美国劳动力市场仍旧强劲。4月以来，新增非农就业持续超预期，尽管职位空缺有所下降，但仍处高位，这意味着就业增长放缓的过程将是渐进的。美国劳动力市场仍具备韧性，亚特兰大联储模型显示，2022年1-8月美国月均新增非农就业人数远高于目标失业率为4%下所需的新增非农就业人数（图6）。种种迹象显示着美国经济也仍旧强劲，亚特兰大联储对三季度美国实际GDP环比增速的预测已上修至2.7%（图7）。那么，美国紧俏的就业市场何时缓解甚至走弱？可以从四个维度进行观测：维度一：薪资上涨动能，若持续放缓将对通胀释放积极信号。2022年9月，美国私人行业平均时薪同比增速放缓至5.0%（8月为5.2%），而修匀后的年化环比增速（3个月移动平均）降至4.4%（8月为4.8%）。但服务业薪资增速仍维持高位，如图8所示，增速居首位的休闲和酒店业在8-9月薪资同比增速仍在8%左右，持平于7-8月。维度二：劳动力供需两侧的缓解状况，重要指标包括职位空缺和离职率。2022年4月以来，美国职位空缺数和离职率持续回落，8月休闲住宿业、教育和保健服务、专业和商业服务的职位空缺率较7月下降0.5至1个百分点（图9-图10）。尽管美国劳动力市场供需情况有所改善，服务业就业需求的缓解有望使得薪资增速从高位回落，但职位空缺和离职率仍远高于疫情前水平。维度三：劳动力参与率改善的停滞。我们认为劳动力参与率的提升已基本见顶，8月劳动力参与率的提升得益于暑期青年人口参与情况的好转，属于季节性因素，鉴于黄金年龄段人口的就业率已恢复至疫情前水平，后续劳动参与率回升空间有限（图11）。维度四：先行指标初次审请失业金人数持续上升，预示着就业市场疲弱。初次审请失业金人数作为高频数据，在劳动力市场走弱的情况下，该指标的持续上升通常领先于就业人数的稳步下降。尽管初次审请失业金人数持续大幅下降的趋势已经在2021年结束，但当前（2022年9月）仍然处于低位（图12）。总体来看，上述四个维度中只有一个得到了满足，美国紧俏就业市场的缓解程度不及预期，9月非农数据将进一步坚定美联储的鹰派态度。如表1所示，美联储官员对抗通胀的态度坚决，不认为经济衰退是必然结果，鉴于紧俏的劳动力市场是高通胀背后的一大推手，官员们普遍可以容忍失业率上升至4%或更高。而通胀压力的放缓需要疲弱的经济数据并且疲弱迹象持续一段时间。紧俏劳动力市场的缓解不及预期意味着薪资增速的下降仍是缓慢的，如此来看服务业通胀缓解不及预期的可能性仍较大，11月加息75bp的概率进一步加大。我们在此前的报告中也指出，鉴于通胀出现意外上行的风险仍较大，政策利率的上行风险高于下行风险，因而9月美联储点阵图显示的2023年加息至4.6%的情形，仍可能被进一步上修。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".IXIC":0.69,"DJX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".DJI":0.72,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPY":0.69,"QLD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914656157,"gmtCreate":1665278393880,"gmtModify":1676537580462,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914656157","repostId":"2273336343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025209209,"gmtCreate":1653693896501,"gmtModify":1676535326539,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025209209","repostId":"1194051101","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194051101","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653661197,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194051101?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 22:19","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose, with Rivian gaining nearly 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194051101","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，美股新能车股普涨，Rivian、Lordstown Motors涨近7%，特斯拉涨超5%，法拉第未来、Lucid Group涨近4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>Up nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group</a>It rose nearly 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0325c17e8ad89970eca04ba1c1fa8010\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose, with Rivian gaining nearly 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS new energy vehicle stocks generally rose, with Rivian gaining nearly 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 22:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>Up nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group</a>It rose nearly 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0325c17e8ad89970eca04ba1c1fa8010\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194051101","content_text":"5月27日，美股新能车股普涨，Rivian、Lordstown Motors涨近7%，特斯拉涨超5%，法拉第未来、Lucid Group涨近4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"FFIE":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067001018,"gmtCreate":1652392607434,"gmtModify":1676535088787,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067001018","repostId":"2234397154","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2234397154","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652369233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2234397154?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The specter of inflation lingers, with the former \"third-in-command\" saying it should be raised to 5%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234397154","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在美国4月CPI数据高于预期后，美联储官员面临采取更激进行动的压力。到目前为止，官员们的基本口径仍是在接下来的两次会议上每次都加息50基点，但不排除一次加息75基点。今年拥有联邦公开市场委员会(FOM","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials are under pressure to take more aggressive action after the U.S. April CPI data exceeded expectations.</p><p><b>So far, officials have maintained a basic stance of 50 basis points for rate hike at each of the next two meetings, but they do not rule out 75 basis points for rate hike.</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, said in an interview on Wednesday...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>In a financial interview, he stated:</p><p>“We have developed a plan to raise rates by 50 basis points in rate hike at the last meeting and are preparing for future meetings. I think this is a good benchmark for now.” When asked if a 75 basis point rate hike was necessary, Bullard said it was not his primary consideration.</p><p>According to pricing in the federal funds futures market,<b>Investors seem to agree that a 75 basis point rate hike is unlikely. However, after the US CPI report in April showed that both core CPI year-on-year and month-on-month increases exceeded expectations, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would rate hike by 50 basis points again in September.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 50 basis points last week, and Powell hinted at a press conference that the same measures would be taken at the next two FOMC meetings, while leaving room for further action if necessary.</p><p>Bullard stated that inflation reports indicate price pressures are broader and more persistent than many expected, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who will have voting rights at next year's FOMC meeting, said at another event in a different region that he would \"support more action\" if inflation continues to grow at its current rate.</p><p>According to Bloomberg,<b>Federal Reserve observers said that the April CPI data did not meet the Fed's expectations, and the narrative surrounding larger measures may begin to shift, especially if the May inflation report remains strong.</b>The report will be released on June 10, ahead of the FOMC meeting on June 14-15.</p><p>Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Piper Sandler & Co., wrote in a report to clients:</p><p>“This should prompt investors and the FOMC to reconsider their discussions about 75 basis points. It’s too early to predict what action the Fed will take in June, as there’s another CPI report a few days before the meeting, but there’s an upside risk to rate hike relative to the seemingly foregone conclusion of 50 basis points,” Karim Basta, chief economist at investment firm III Capital Management, said in an email to clients.</p><p>\"The threshold for deviating from guidance is high, but today's outcome is certainly not what the Fed envisioned. Powell's comments were 'there is room for change,' and the next inflation report will be 'very important.' Cleveland Fed President Mester, who has voting rights at this year's FOMC meetings, said on Tuesday that she supports a 50 basis point rate hike at the next few meetings, and then accelerating or slowing the pace of rate hike depending on inflation.\" In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, Mester said:</p><p>“We will not permanently rule out the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike. In my opinion, our current pace is correct. We will have to assess whether inflation is actually declining, and we will be able to obtain more information after we conduct several such 50 basis point rate hike.”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Pablo Villanueva, senior U.S. economist at UBS Investment Bank, said policymakers might more moderately rate hike by 25 basis points in September if future reports show inflation beginning to weaken.</p><p>Villanueva said:</p><p>\"We believe that inflation in September will change significantly from the current situation. However, if inflation remains high, the risk of a 50 basis point rate hike in September will increase.\"<h2>The former \"third-in-command\" stated: The Federal Reserve should rate hike to 5% or higher.</h2>Regarding how high the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to alleviate price pressures, William Dudley, who served as president of the New York Fed from 2009 to 2018, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday:</p><p>“I think rate hike should reach 4-5% or higher. About six months ago, I supported rate hike at 3% to 4%. Now I think rate hike should reach 4-5%. I wouldn’t be shocked if a few months later I think rate hike has reached 5% to 6%,” Dudley added.<b>The Federal Reserve should be more candid in communicating to the public how high rate hike is needed to control inflation, and how much pain this will cause.</b></p><p>Officials have consistently said they believe a soft landing can be achieved, curbing inflation while avoiding a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment, but Dudley believes such language could do more harm than good.</p><p>He said:</p><p>“The Federal Reserve must tighten monetary policy sufficiently to slow economic growth and push up unemployment. This is necessary, and I think the Federal Reserve should be more frank in explaining this to the American public. If you start sugarcoating it, financial conditions won’t tighten as much, and there is also a risk that people will lose confidence in the Federal Reserve.”</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The specter of inflation lingers, with the former \"third-in-command\" saying it should be raised to 5%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe specter of inflation lingers, with the former \"third-in-command\" saying it should be raised to 5%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials are under pressure to take more aggressive action after the U.S. April CPI data exceeded expectations.</p><p><b>So far, officials have maintained a basic stance of 50 basis points for rate hike at each of the next two meetings, but they do not rule out 75 basis points for rate hike.</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, said in an interview on Wednesday...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>In a financial interview, he stated:</p><p>“We have developed a plan to raise rates by 50 basis points in rate hike at the last meeting and are preparing for future meetings. I think this is a good benchmark for now.” When asked if a 75 basis point rate hike was necessary, Bullard said it was not his primary consideration.</p><p>According to pricing in the federal funds futures market,<b>Investors seem to agree that a 75 basis point rate hike is unlikely. However, after the US CPI report in April showed that both core CPI year-on-year and month-on-month increases exceeded expectations, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would rate hike by 50 basis points again in September.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 50 basis points last week, and Powell hinted at a press conference that the same measures would be taken at the next two FOMC meetings, while leaving room for further action if necessary.</p><p>Bullard stated that inflation reports indicate price pressures are broader and more persistent than many expected, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who will have voting rights at next year's FOMC meeting, said at another event in a different region that he would \"support more action\" if inflation continues to grow at its current rate.</p><p>According to Bloomberg,<b>Federal Reserve observers said that the April CPI data did not meet the Fed's expectations, and the narrative surrounding larger measures may begin to shift, especially if the May inflation report remains strong.</b>The report will be released on June 10, ahead of the FOMC meeting on June 14-15.</p><p>Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Piper Sandler & Co., wrote in a report to clients:</p><p>“This should prompt investors and the FOMC to reconsider their discussions about 75 basis points. It’s too early to predict what action the Fed will take in June, as there’s another CPI report a few days before the meeting, but there’s an upside risk to rate hike relative to the seemingly foregone conclusion of 50 basis points,” Karim Basta, chief economist at investment firm III Capital Management, said in an email to clients.</p><p>\"The threshold for deviating from guidance is high, but today's outcome is certainly not what the Fed envisioned. Powell's comments were 'there is room for change,' and the next inflation report will be 'very important.' Cleveland Fed President Mester, who has voting rights at this year's FOMC meetings, said on Tuesday that she supports a 50 basis point rate hike at the next few meetings, and then accelerating or slowing the pace of rate hike depending on inflation.\" In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, Mester said:</p><p>“We will not permanently rule out the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike. In my opinion, our current pace is correct. We will have to assess whether inflation is actually declining, and we will be able to obtain more information after we conduct several such 50 basis point rate hike.”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Pablo Villanueva, senior U.S. economist at UBS Investment Bank, said policymakers might more moderately rate hike by 25 basis points in September if future reports show inflation beginning to weaken.</p><p>Villanueva said:</p><p>\"We believe that inflation in September will change significantly from the current situation. However, if inflation remains high, the risk of a 50 basis point rate hike in September will increase.\"<h2>The former \"third-in-command\" stated: The Federal Reserve should rate hike to 5% or higher.</h2>Regarding how high the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to alleviate price pressures, William Dudley, who served as president of the New York Fed from 2009 to 2018, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday:</p><p>“I think rate hike should reach 4-5% or higher. About six months ago, I supported rate hike at 3% to 4%. Now I think rate hike should reach 4-5%. I wouldn’t be shocked if a few months later I think rate hike has reached 5% to 6%,” Dudley added.<b>The Federal Reserve should be more candid in communicating to the public how high rate hike is needed to control inflation, and how much pain this will cause.</b></p><p>Officials have consistently said they believe a soft landing can be achieved, curbing inflation while avoiding a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment, but Dudley believes such language could do more harm than good.</p><p>He said:</p><p>“The Federal Reserve must tighten monetary policy sufficiently to slow economic growth and push up unemployment. This is necessary, and I think the Federal Reserve should be more frank in explaining this to the American public. If you start sugarcoating it, financial conditions won’t tighten as much, and there is also a risk that people will lose confidence in the Federal Reserve.”</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659232\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659232","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234397154","content_text":"在美国4月CPI数据高于预期后，美联储官员面临采取更激进行动的压力。到目前为止，官员们的基本口径仍是在接下来的两次会议上每次都加息50基点，但不排除一次加息75基点。今年拥有联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)投票权的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）周三在接受雅虎财经采访时表示：“我们已经制定了一个计划，在上次会议上是加息50个基点，并为未来的会议做准备。我认为这是目前的一个很好的基准情况。”当被问及是否有必要升息75个基点时，布拉德表示，这不是他的基本考虑。根据联邦基金期货市场的定价，投资者似乎同意不太可能加息75个基点的说法。但在4月美国CPI报告显示核心CPI同环比增幅均超预期后，交易员加大了对美联储将在9月份再次加息50个基点的押注。美联储上周已经加息50个基点，鲍威尔在发布会上暗示在接下来的两次FOMC会议上也将采取同样的措施，同时为必要时采取更多行动留下了空间。布拉德表示，通胀报告显示，物价压力比许多人预期的更广泛、更持久，而明年拥有FOMC会议投票权的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）在不同地区的另一场活动中表示，如果通胀继续保持目前的增长速度，他将“支持更多行动”。据彭博报道，美联储观察人士表示，4月的CPI数据并不符合美联储的预期，围绕更大举措的叙述可能会开始转变，尤其是如果5月通胀报告依旧很火热的话。该报告将于6月10日发布，先于6月14-15日的FOMC会议。派杰投资公司Piper Sandler & Co.全球政策研究主管Roberto Perli在给客户的报告中写道：“这应该会让投资者和FOMC重新考虑关于75个基点的讨论。现在判断美联储在6月将采取什么行动还为时过早，因为在会议前几天还有另一份CPI报告，但现在相对于似乎已成定局的50个基点，加息幅度存在上行风险。”投资机构III Capital Management的首席经济学家Karim Basta在给客户的电子邮件中表示：“偏离指引的门槛很高，但今天的结果肯定不是美联储设想的那样。鲍威尔的评论为‘改变行动留有余地’，下一份通胀报告将‘非常重要’。今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周二已经表示，她支持在接下来的几次会议上加息50基点，然后根据通胀情况加快或放慢加息步伐。周二在接受彭博电视采访时，梅斯特说：“我们不会永久排除一次加息75基点的可能性，在我看来，我们现在的节奏是正确的，我们将不得不评估通胀是否真的在下降，在我们进行几次这样的50基点的加息后，我们将能够获得更多的信息。”瑞银投资银行(UBS Investment Bank)高级美国经济学家Pablo Villanueva表示，如果未来的报告显示通胀开始走弱，政策制定者可能会在9月份更温和地加息25个基点。Villanueva说：“我们认为9月份通胀将与当前形势有较大变化。但如果通胀持续高企，9月升息50基点的风险将增加。”前“三把手”表态：美联储应加息至5%或更高就美联储应升息至多高以缓解物价压力，2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的的威廉·杜德利（William Dudley）周三在接受彭博采访表示：“我认为应该加息至4-5%或更高，大概六个月前，我支持加息到3%至4%。现在我觉得应该加息到4-5%，如果几个月后我认为已经加息到5%到6%，我不会感到震惊。”杜德利还表示，美联储应该更坦诚地向公众传达要控制通胀需要加息至多高，以及这将造成多大的痛苦。官员们一直表示，他们认为可以实现经济软着陆，在打压通胀的同时避免经济衰退或失业率急剧上升，但杜德利认为这样的措辞可能弊大于利。他说：“美联储必须充分收紧货币政策，以减缓经济增长并推高失业率。这是必需的，我认为美联储应该更坦率地向美国公众解释这一点。如果你开始给它涂上糖衣，那么金融状况就不会那么收紧，而且还会面临人们对美联储失去信心的风险。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPY":1,"DJX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067003481,"gmtCreate":1652392593443,"gmtModify":1676535088788,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067003481","repostId":"1196326369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062667508,"gmtCreate":1652056955404,"gmtModify":1676535020611,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062667508","repostId":"2233487552","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016672139,"gmtCreate":1649198551579,"gmtModify":1676534466174,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016672139","repostId":"1120782631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120782631","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649167716,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120782631?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 22:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve's Brainard: Balance sheet may shrink rapidly as early as May.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120782631","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月5日，美股短线走低，纳指跌1%，标普500指数跌0.2%，道指涨幅收窄至0.2%；美联储理事布雷纳德：美联储可能最快将在5月快速收缩资产负债表。美联储理事布雷纳德今日就通胀发表讲话，布雷纳德表示，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 5, U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with the Nasdaq down 1%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gains narrowing to 0.2%. Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: The Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aecb29da66aba35fe19f3de0e92147ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard spoke today about inflation. Brainard said that the Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May, and he expects the balance sheet to shrink much faster than the previous recovery. On the balance sheet, I expect the maximum limit to increase significantly compared to 2017-2019, and the tapering period to be shortened.</p><p>The combined effects of rate hike and balance sheet reduction will make monetary policy more neutral later this year.</p><p>With policy more neutral, the extent of further tightening depends on changes in inflation and employment prospects.</p><p>If inflation and inflation expectations indicators suggest that such action is necessary, the Federal Reserve is prepared to take more forceful action.</p><p>The current inflation rate is too high, making it vulnerable to upside risks.</p><p>I am watching the yield curve and other data for signs of increased downside risks to economic activity.</p><p>Long-term inflation expectations remain within historical ranges.</p><p>The extent of the shift from demand for goods to demand for services is being carefully monitored to see if the service sector can absorb this demand without triggering inflationary pressures.</p><p>The burden of inflation on low-income households, i.e., those with larger family members or older heads of household, is not included in the official consumer price index.</p><p>The Federal Reserve can adjust policy at each meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve's Brainard: Balance sheet may shrink rapidly as early as May.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve's Brainard: Balance sheet may shrink rapidly as early as May.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-05 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 5, U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with the Nasdaq down 1%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gains narrowing to 0.2%. Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: The Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aecb29da66aba35fe19f3de0e92147ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard spoke today about inflation. Brainard said that the Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May, and he expects the balance sheet to shrink much faster than the previous recovery. On the balance sheet, I expect the maximum limit to increase significantly compared to 2017-2019, and the tapering period to be shortened.</p><p>The combined effects of rate hike and balance sheet reduction will make monetary policy more neutral later this year.</p><p>With policy more neutral, the extent of further tightening depends on changes in inflation and employment prospects.</p><p>If inflation and inflation expectations indicators suggest that such action is necessary, the Federal Reserve is prepared to take more forceful action.</p><p>The current inflation rate is too high, making it vulnerable to upside risks.</p><p>I am watching the yield curve and other data for signs of increased downside risks to economic activity.</p><p>Long-term inflation expectations remain within historical ranges.</p><p>The extent of the shift from demand for goods to demand for services is being carefully monitored to see if the service sector can absorb this demand without triggering inflationary pressures.</p><p>The burden of inflation on low-income households, i.e., those with larger family members or older heads of household, is not included in the official consumer price index.</p><p>The Federal Reserve can adjust policy at each meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120782631","content_text":"4月5日，美股短线走低，纳指跌1%，标普500指数跌0.2%，道指涨幅收窄至0.2%；美联储理事布雷纳德：美联储可能最快将在5月快速收缩资产负债表。美联储理事布雷纳德今日就通胀发表讲话，布雷纳德表示，美联储可能最快将在5月快速收缩资产负债表，我预计资产负债表的收缩速度会比之前的复苏速度快得多。在资产负债表上，我预计与2017-2019年相比，最高限额将大大增加，缩债期限也将缩短。加息和削减资产负债表的综合影响，将使货币政策在今年晚些时候变得更加中性。在政策更加中立后，进一步紧缩的程度取决于通货膨胀和就业前景的变化。如果通胀和通胀预期指标表明有必要采取此类行动，美联储准备采取更有力的行动。目前通货膨胀率太高，容易受到上行风险的影响。我正在观察收益率曲线和其他数据，以了解经济活动下行风险增加的迹象。长期通胀预期仍在历史范围内。正在仔细监测从商品需求转向服务需求的程度，观察服务业能否在不引发通胀压力的情况下吸收这些需求。通货膨胀对低收入家庭的负担，即那些家庭成员较多或户主年龄较大的家庭，没有被计入官方消费价格指数。美联储可以在每次会议上调整政策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016676602,"gmtCreate":1649198491013,"gmtModify":1676534466151,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016676602","repostId":"1140517165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140517165","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649171642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140517165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 23:14","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"U.S. airline stocks collectively fell, with JetBlue Airways dropping more than 4%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140517165","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月5日，美股航空股集体走低，捷蓝航空跌超4%，波音、联合大陆航空、美国航空跌超3%，西南航空跌超2%，达美航空跌近2%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 5, U.S. airline stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">JetBlue Airways</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>It fell nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e08e59293fc73d6f10a55b091f0c9b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. airline stocks collectively fell, with JetBlue Airways dropping more than 4%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. airline stocks collectively fell, with JetBlue Airways dropping more than 4%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-05 23:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 5, U.S. airline stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">JetBlue Airways</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>It fell nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e08e59293fc73d6f10a55b091f0c9b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6636b11e33b9db4872348d6da7bca3c0","relate_stocks":{"BK4008":"航空公司","BK4500":"航空公司","JBLU":"捷蓝航空"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140517165","content_text":"4月5日，美股航空股集体走低，捷蓝航空跌超4%，波音、联合大陆航空、美国航空跌超3%，西南航空跌超2%，达美航空跌近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JBLU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9927067542,"gmtCreate":1672357863887,"gmtModify":1676538677485,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"go 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc0d6d2c2f30b0c7814fc71ca5a977fa","width":"870","height":"1772"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/504373051539752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968905422,"gmtCreate":1669087211167,"gmtModify":1676538150118,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968905422","repostId":"2285027318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285027318","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669086543,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285027318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Citigroup upgraded its rating on Hong Kong stocks, prompting a collective call on Wall Street to \"buy China\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285027318","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗认为，当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。华尔街再次将目光聚焦在中国，花旗最近将中国香港股市上调至超","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Citigroup believes that a series of current domestic policies in China should help support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery.</b>Wall Street is once again focusing on China, with Citigroup recently upgrading its Hong Kong stock market to overweight.</p><p>In a report released on Sunday, November 20th, the team of Citi strategists Robert Buckland believed that:</p><p>The current series of domestic policies in China should help stabilize the current decline in earnings per share of Chinese stocks and support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery. In recent weeks, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has entered a bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index has also rebounded continuously after testing long-term technical support levels over the past 17 years.</p><p>For other Asian economies, Citigroup downgraded South Korea's rating to underweight, citing contracting earnings in the country. Remain neutral towards India; My holdings in Malaysia have been upgraded to \"overweight\"; Downgrade Indonesia to neutral.</p><p>Citigroup isn't the only company bullish on the Chinese market recently.</p><p>Always cautious<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Last week, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Chinese stocks, predicting that the MSCI China Index would rise 14% by the end of next year. As early as mid-October, during the stock market correction, Morgan Stanley stated that a good time to buy Chinese stocks had arrived.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We reaffirm our confidence in the Chinese stock market. In a report, Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight rating on the MSCI China Index, expecting the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to return as much as 16% in the next 12 months, and as high as 19% and 21% when exchange rate factors are taken into account. Goldman Sachs also upgraded Hong Kong stocks from underweight to even weight.</p><p>In addition, Hillhouse Capital remains optimistic about Chinese assets, with HHLR Advisors, its fund management firm specializing in secondary investments, reporting a third-quarter outlook.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary Creatures</a>Nine Chinese concept stocks, including those listed above, underwent increased holdings, new purchases, and other operations. We remain optimistic about new energy and have increased our holdings in Daquan New Energy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>。</p><p>Allianz Investment All China Equity<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUND\">Fund</a>Manager Anthony Wong said earlier that the A-share market is best suited to seize (outperform) opportunities because it has a large number of new economy companies and is relatively unaffected by external fluctuations.</p><p>The market's performance did not disappoint Wall Street banks. This month, the MSCI China Index surged nearly 24%, poised for its best monthly performance since 1999. Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>The index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index are also in technical bull market territory.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citigroup upgraded its rating on Hong Kong stocks, prompting a collective call on Wall Street to \"buy China\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCitigroup upgraded its rating on Hong Kong stocks, prompting a collective call on Wall Street to \"buy China\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-22 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Citigroup believes that a series of current domestic policies in China should help support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery.</b>Wall Street is once again focusing on China, with Citigroup recently upgrading its Hong Kong stock market to overweight.</p><p>In a report released on Sunday, November 20th, the team of Citi strategists Robert Buckland believed that:</p><p>The current series of domestic policies in China should help stabilize the current decline in earnings per share of Chinese stocks and support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China may rely on internal drivers to achieve an attractive recovery. In recent weeks, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has entered a bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index has also rebounded continuously after testing long-term technical support levels over the past 17 years.</p><p>For other Asian economies, Citigroup downgraded South Korea's rating to underweight, citing contracting earnings in the country. Remain neutral towards India; My holdings in Malaysia have been upgraded to \"overweight\"; Downgrade Indonesia to neutral.</p><p>Citigroup isn't the only company bullish on the Chinese market recently.</p><p>Always cautious<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Last week, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Chinese stocks, predicting that the MSCI China Index would rise 14% by the end of next year. As early as mid-October, during the stock market correction, Morgan Stanley stated that a good time to buy Chinese stocks had arrived.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We reaffirm our confidence in the Chinese stock market. In a report, Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight rating on the MSCI China Index, expecting the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to return as much as 16% in the next 12 months, and as high as 19% and 21% when exchange rate factors are taken into account. Goldman Sachs also upgraded Hong Kong stocks from underweight to even weight.</p><p>In addition, Hillhouse Capital remains optimistic about Chinese assets, with HHLR Advisors, its fund management firm specializing in secondary investments, reporting a third-quarter outlook.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary Creatures</a>Nine Chinese concept stocks, including those listed above, underwent increased holdings, new purchases, and other operations. We remain optimistic about new energy and have increased our holdings in Daquan New Energy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>。</p><p>Allianz Investment All China Equity<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUND\">Fund</a>Manager Anthony Wong said earlier that the A-share market is best suited to seize (outperform) opportunities because it has a large number of new economy companies and is relatively unaffected by external fluctuations.</p><p>The market's performance did not disappoint Wall Street banks. This month, the MSCI China Index surged nearly 24%, poised for its best monthly performance since 1999. Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>The index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index are also in technical bull market territory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675561\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675561","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285027318","content_text":"花旗认为，当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。华尔街再次将目光聚焦在中国，花旗最近将中国香港股市上调至超配。在11月20日周日发表的一份报告中，花旗策略分析师Robert Buckland团队认为：当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于稳住当前中国股票每股收益的下滑，对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。最近几周，中国香港的恒生指数已经进入牛市，上证综指也在测试17年来的长期技术支撑位后，连续反弹。对于其他亚洲经济体，花旗将韩国的评级下调至减持，理由是韩国的收益会出现收缩；对印度保持中性；对马来西亚上调至增持；将印度尼西亚下调至中性。最近看涨中国市场的，不只是花旗。一向谨慎的摩根士丹利上周上调了对中国股市的目标价，预计MSCI中国指数到明年年底将上涨14%，大摩早在10月中旬股市回调之际表示，买入中国股票的好时机已到。本月早些时候，高盛重申对中国股市的信心。在一份报告中，高盛维持对MSCI中国指数的超配评级，预计MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数在未来12个月回报率高达16%，若计入汇率因素，其回报更是高达19%和21%。高盛还将中国香港股票从低配上调至平配。此外，高瓴资本继续看好中国资产，旗下专攻二级投资的基金管理机构HHLR Advisors三季度对拼多多、传奇生物等9只中概股进行了增持、新进买入等加仓操作；继续看好新能源，加仓大全新能源与晶科能源。安联投资All China Equity Fund基金经理Anthony Wong早些时候表示，A股市场最适合抓住（跑赢大盘）机会，因为该市场有大量新经济企业，而且相对不受外部波动的影响。市场的表现也没有令华尔街大行失望。本月，MSCI中国指数大幅上涨近24%，有望创下1999年以来最佳月度表现。香港恒生中国企业指数和纳斯达克金龙中国指数也处于技术性牛市区域。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914652037,"gmtCreate":1665278436629,"gmtModify":1676537580478,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914652037","repostId":"2273357388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273357388","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665200770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273357388?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-08 11:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What are Biden's chances of winning the midterm elections?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273357388","media":"格隆汇","summary":"为何中期选举如此重要？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The primary elections for the US midterm elections have ended, and the final elections will begin in early November. The midterm elections will determine the party affiliation in the House of Representatives, thereby influencing the future direction and effectiveness of Biden's administration. So, what should we vote for in the midterm elections? Why are the midterm elections so important? Will Biden lose the House? This report analyzes this.</p><p><h3>1. What are the important elections in the United States?</h3>Before we talk about the midterm elections,<b>First, we need to develop a basic understanding of the American political system.</b></p><p><b>The political foundation of the \"separation of powers\".</b>The U.S. Constitution divides the powers of the federal government into three parts, allowing for checks and balances and mutual independence. Legislative power is in the hands of Congress, which is divided into two parts: the Senate and the House of Representatives, whose responsibilities, powers, and number of members are very different. Executive power is delegated to the president and the White House. Judicial power rests with the Supreme Court, which is decided by nine lifetime Supreme Court Justices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda36251c8cb459ed05bc0e479d422f4\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Executive power is exercised by the President of the United States and Cabinet members</b>。 The United States<b>Presidential election</b>，<b>Commonly known as the general election</b>It is also an extremely popular international event held every four years. Presidential elections are based on the Electoral College system, which is unique to the United States.<b>First,</b>The electors of each state are chosen by the votes of the electors.<b>Then,</b>The electors who receive the most votes in the state then vote for the presidential candidate on behalf of the entire state's voters.<b>in the end</b>The candidate who receives more than 270 votes out of 538 electoral votes will win. Furthermore, it's worth noting that each state's electors hold the same number of votes as its members of Congress, and the number of House seats is determined by the state's total population, so states with larger populations also have more votes. Generally speaking, the more electoral votes a president receives, the greater the total number of voters supporting him. However, there have been five special cases in history where the winning president lagged behind in total electoral votes but had a lead in electoral votes. For example, in 2016, Trump, although lagging behind by nearly 3 million electoral votes, won the election by a significant margin of 77 electoral votes (14% of the total vote).</p><p><b>Cabinet members are not involved in elections</b>Appointed by and accountable to the President. Typically, the successor president proposes cabinet nominees to the Senate before taking the oath of office. More than 20 cabinet positions, such as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, require the opinions of relevant Senate committees, and then the Senate votes on them, requiring a majority vote to pass.</p><p><b>In addition to electing the cabinet, the president has the following five main powers. First,</b>Nominate him for federal positions such as the Supreme Court Justice and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.<b>Second,</b>The passage or rejection of bills passed by Congress serves as the final hurdle in the legislative process.<b>Third,</b>The power to sign executive orders, that is, to legislate indirectly by issuing executive orders to federal agencies.<b>Fourth,</b>Pardon power, that is, the president can pardon some people who have violated federal law.<b>Fifth,</b>Military command: As the supreme commander of the U.S. military, the president can request Congress to exercise the power to declare war, and can also command the U.S. military in both wartime and non-wartime.<b>in addition</b>The president can participate in diplomacy, declare a national emergency, and sign international treaties with the approval of the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc6092dbae8224d63a5d5d59f1642fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Legislative power is exercised by Congress</b>。 Congress is involved<b>Senator</b>and<b>Congressman</b>The election. At the same time as each election, the U.S. Congress is also in the process of changing its leadership. But unlike a presidential election,<b>Congressional elections are not held only in election years, but every even-numbered year. Mid-term elections</b>This is the process by which members of Congress are re-elected during the president's term, two years after the president takes office. Representatives serve two-year terms, meaning the entire House of Representatives needs to be re-elected every two years. The term of the Senate is six years, but the 100 members are divided into three staggered batches (33, 33, and 34 members respectively), so that one-third of the Senate is replaced every two years. In total, there are about 468 congressional seats waiting for new owners in each general and midterm election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cec6ac0276cbc86e3f215aaf0f35540\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Members are determined by universal suffrage.</b>In<b>Electoral system</b>Previously, parliamentary elections did not use the electoral system, but were directly determined by universal suffrage. Senators are elected by statewide residents, while House members are elected only by residents of the district themselves. Congress<b>Election Process</b>Usually divided into<b>Three stages</b>: Primary, Final, Final.<b>First</b>Primary elections are an election process within each party. Each party needs to elect a party candidate for each congressional seat.<b>Secondly</b>For most states in the United States, if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the primary, the top two candidates with the most votes will advance to the next round of competition.<b>Runner-up</b>。<b>in the end</b>The party candidates who win the primaries and runoffs will travel to Washington to compete against candidates from other parties, which is the final election and the last step in the congressional reshuffle.</p><p>Because each state has a different election schedule, the primary and runoff elections last about six months, usually between March and September of an election year, while the final election is usually held on the second Tuesday of November of that year. This year's final election will be held on November 8, and the final election results will be announced by each state in November and December. The newly elected 118th members of Congress are scheduled to take office on January 3, 2023. The state primaries have now concluded, meaning the party races are over. More than 400 winners of both parties' primaries will compete in Washington, D.C., three months later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376f5d1fdca5627a30e5c7153b86373d\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judicial power is exercised by the Chief Justice.</b>Supreme Court justices are nominated by the President of the United States and must be approved by a majority vote of the Senate. on account of<b>The term of office of the Chief Justice is for life.</b>Vacancies for presidential nomination only arise when a current Supreme Court justice dies, retires voluntarily, or is removed from office. The inauguration process of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Jackson is a typical example of a judicial transition:<b>First</b>Biden nominated Jackson on February 25 to replace Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, who voluntarily retired in January.<b>subsequently</b>The Senate voted on Jackson on April 7 and passed it 53-47.<b>in the end</b>Jackson was sworn in on June 30th of this year. There are currently no vacant Supreme Court seats awaiting re-election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885b7e4a220c570c9f7d7f433bff57c4\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Supreme Court interprets the Constitution</b>。 The Supreme Court's ruling is based on the nine justices' interpretation of the Constitution, so it is the final ruling of the entire judicial system and can only be overturned by amending the Constitution through Congress. Therefore, under the American case law system, a Supreme Court justice's ruling is a...<b>Indirect \"legislative\" behavior</b>。 Combining such supreme power, lifetime tenure, and subjectivity in interpreting the Constitution, the political leanings of the Supreme Court justices play a crucial role in American society as a whole. Although the justices' political party information is not public, their political leanings can be clearly reflected in their decisions and statements. The current Supreme Court consists of six Republican-leaning justices and three Democratic-leaning justices. Under such a long-standing conservative dominance, the Republican Party uses the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Constitution to promote its political ideology, subtly changing the direction of the legal and social environment in the United States, such as promoting big government and restricting equal rights.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf187581b0026bfb8614a65297ebbd7\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The governor's race is also worth watching.</b>This year, 36 gubernatorial seats are up for election, and the election process for governor is similar to that of congressional elections, consisting of two stages: a primary, a runoff, and a final election. The governor is the highest point of executive power in each state, and therefore has similar powers to the president, the highest office in the federal executive system, and has even greater influence in the state than the president. These powers benefit from the fact that the U.S. Constitution allows states to maintain a certain degree of independence. Because state laws vary from state to state, the powers of the governor also differ, but generally speaking, they fall into the following five categories:<b>First,</b>To pass or reject state law bills proposed by the state legislature;<b>Second</b>Approve the state's budget and appropriations;<b>Third</b>Appointing officials of state administrative agencies with the approval of the state legislature;<b>Fourth</b>Signing state-level executive orders;<b>Fifth</b>Declare a state of emergency in the state to invoke emergency privileges.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f602073a8f15ab36dea3693ddb66b80\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve system is outside the three branches of government.</b>As the central bank of the United States, its operations and decision-making<b>Independent of the federal government</b>Mainly dedicated to formulating<b>Monetary policy</b>and to the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>To conduct supervision, etc. The Federal Reserve mainly consists of three parts: the Federal Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Federal Board of Governors at its core. The Governing Council implements monetary policy through the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, and its members and the chairmen of each Federal Reserve Bank form the Federal Open Market Committee. Members of the Federal Reserve Board are directly nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by a vote of the Senate for a term of 14 years and are not eligible for*. The terms of office of the directors are staggered by two years, meaning that a new director takes office every even-numbered year. The Chairman's term of office is 4 years and he can*until the end of his 14-year term as a member. Similar to senators, the Fed's exceptionally long term and biennial leadership rotation ensure its medium- to long-term independence, free from excessive influence from the ruling party.</p><p><h3>2. Why are the midterm elections important?</h3><b>The midterm elections involve the re-election of members of Congress.</b>Congress's primary authority lies in legislation. From government budgets to defense bills, laws large and small need to go through a lengthy congressional process. In addition to legislation, Congress has the following important powers: First,<b>Power to amend the Constitution</b>； Second, \"<b>\"Money Purse Rights\"</b>That is, the power to exercise appropriations through the three major committees of appropriations, budget, and fund-raising; Thirdly, some<b>military power</b>This mainly includes the power to declare war and the power to provide military funding. In addition to the above powers,<b>The Senate and the House of Representatives each have their own privileges</b></p><p>In the Senate,<b>First</b>The main privilege is<b>Approval of federal positions nominated by the President</b>This includes cabinet members, the Supreme Court Justice, and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Only during the recess of Congress and the Senate can the president use his recess appointment power to appoint officials of his choice without Senate approval, but the Senate has also developed some cumbersome new countermeasures in recent years to circumvent this presidential prerogative.<b>Secondly</b>The Senate needs to consider any proposal made by the House of Representatives.<b>Recall motion for vote ruling</b>。<b>Finally,</b>The Senate also has the power to ratify and adopt international treaties.</p><p>In the House of Representatives,<b>First,</b>The most important privilege is<b>Initiate fiscal and tax-related proposals</b>。 Any bill involving fiscal revenue must be introduced by the House of Representatives.<b>Secondly,</b>The House of Representatives owns<b>recall</b>The rights of any federal official cover the entire political system, including the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, and even the president. Historically, three U.S. presidents have been formally impeached by the House of Representatives: Johnson, Clinton, and Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14761046bda55cce9fd58e6bfbc3a8d0\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Senate represents the interests of the states</b>。 Regardless of the size, population, or economic situation of each state, all 50 states in the United States equally hold two Senate seats, for a total of 100 senators. The current Senate party distribution consists of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Libertarians. Because the two liberal senators lean politically toward the Democratic Party, the two parties have evenly matched voting rights in the Senate. In addition to the senators, the Senate has a separate presidency, which is held by the incumbent vice president. Therefore, when the Senate fails to reach a majority vote, the Senate President will have the right to cast an additional deciding vote. Currently, US Vice President Harris is a Democrat.<b>The Senate as a whole is controlled by the Democrats.</b></p><p>The Senate's special term and rotation system, for<b>Checks and balances between the president and the House of</b>It plays a crucial role. The term of office for senators is six years, and the 100 senators are divided into three batches, one of which is replaced every two years. Compared to representatives and presidents, senators have longer terms and can focus more on the long-term interests of the country than on short-term achievements, *, and elections. At the same time, a batch of leadership changes every two years can ensure that there is enough fresh blood in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856f4c50d5110ca20dbd359766bfceeb\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The House of Representatives is allocated seats in proportion to its population.</b>。 The U.S. Constitution first allocates 435 seats to the House of Representatives based on the proportions of each state's population according to the latest census. At the same time, districts are redrawn within each state based on population and the number of seats in the state, and each seat will represent that district in Congress. Following the latest census in 2020, the number of seats in 13 states has changed. Of these, seven states saw a decrease in the number of voters, and five were Democratic-led. There were six increases in numbers, and four were Republican-dominated. Overall, Republican-dominated states gained more seats. This year, as the first House of Representatives election since the new gerrymandering, may be particularly advantageous for the Republican Party.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcb3c079613d1b1683580897d7dffab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How are typical bills enacted?</b>We have compiled a typical bill-making process:<b>First step</b>Any member of the Senate or the House of Representatives may<b>drafting</b>A proposal.<b>Step Two</b>The bill is being drafted in the House of Representatives.<b>publicity</b>。<b>Step Three</b>After the bill was publicized, it was allocated to one of the chambers.<b>The Committee further studied</b>。 During the study process, the committee may hold notarial meetings to invite experts and officials from administrative agencies to express their opinions.<b>Step 4</b>The committee allocated the bills to more specialized agencies.<b>Subcommittee conducts research</b>Amend and vote on whether to refer the proposal back to the committee for the next step.<b>Step 5</b>The committee considered the proposal.<b>revision</b>And vote on whether to put the bill to a full vote in the House.<b>Step 6</b>This House will proceed to vote. such as<b>If passed, the bill will be sent to another chamber.</b>Repeat steps 1 through 6. In this process, Congress can open<b>Consultative Committee,</b>Coordinate different versions of the bill in both chambers.<b>Step 7</b>If the consultative committee members successfully help both houses reach a consensus, a consultation report must be prepared and submitted by...<b>The two chambers voted separately.</b>Through.<b>Step 8</b>After the same version of the bill is passed by both houses of parliament, it will be...<b>Send to the President</b>。 The president must make a decision on the bill within 10 days.<b>Pass or reject</b>If the deadline is not met, the proposal will be automatically passed. If the president exercises his veto power, Congress can try to override the president's veto power by voting. The president's veto would be overridden if both houses passed the bill by at least two-thirds of the vote.<b>The legislation was successful.</b></p><p>In the Senate's legislative process, members can use certain Senate-specific tactics to interfere with the vote on a bill, the most prominent of which is...<b>Obstruction of proceedings</b>。 Because the Senate stipulates that members can express their views for an unlimited period of time without being interrupted, weaker parties can use \"obstruction matters\" to deliver a speech lasting dozens of hours to obstruct the Senate voting process. The threatening effect of obstruction is now unlikely to take effect, and the Senate can pass 60 votes to limit the speaking time of a member.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e621ce8dcebb55448dac306445dd3f\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h3>3. Will Biden lose the House of Representatives?</h3><b>The ruling party often loses the House of Representatives in midterm elections.</b>Historically, in midterm elections, the ruling party usually loses a large number of congressional seats. In the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the ruling party has lost an average of 28 House of Representatives seats, accounting for about 6% of the total. Lost an average of 4 Senate seats, or 4% of the total seats. If we look at a more recent period, from 1975 to the present, in the last 12 midterm elections,<b>83% of the ruling party lost the support of the House of Representatives</b>It is clear that the House of Representatives is the ruling party's biggest nightmare in the midterm elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e64b0c61909b39e4237f9f242936a61\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some scholars have attempted to explain this phenomenon, with two of the more mainstream theories being:<b>skirt effect</b>and<b>Presidential punishment</b>。<b>skirt effect</b>This means that when the president becomes popular in the general election, he will guide voters to support members of that party in entering Congress. By the time of the midterm elections two years later, voters had become apathetic and dissatisfied with unfulfilled campaign manifestos, and their enthusiasm for voting had decreased significantly.<b>Presidential punishment</b>This means that voters are more willing to vote when they are angry, and if the turnout and number of angry voters (mostly from opposing parties) are greater than that of satisfied voters, then the president's camp is more likely to lose a congressional seat. This year, Republican voter enthusiasm was much higher than in the 2018 midterm elections, while Democratic voter enthusiasm was low. It can be inferred that,<b>High enthusiasm for voting in the primary election may mean that Republican voters will also turn out more in the final election.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371ded2b24ed57e52a4da42729ecfcaa\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Approval ratings determine who wins the House of Representatives.</b>Statistics show that there is a significant correlation between a president's approval rating during the midterm elections and the number of congressional seats lost by the ruling party in that election. The lower the president's approval rating in the midterm elections, the more House of Representatives seats he loses. According to statistics from the authoritative election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight, Biden's approval rating during this period ranks last among presidents in nearly 80 years, and his current approval rating is slightly higher than Reagan and Trump by an extremely narrow margin. Biden has a very high probability of losing a significant number of congressional seats.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8736610e36aa98adc53c1f6ce86aa93\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Senate Democrats lead.</b>According to FiveThirtyEight's late September Senate midterm election model, Democrats currently have a higher probability of winning the Senate than Republicans, with a Democratic chance of winning of about 70% and a lead of about 1-2 seats. This lead was hard-won, and the Republicans maintained a stable advantage until the end of July. With the passage of the chip bill, Biden's approval rating rose steadily, leading the Democrats to gradually take the lead in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3836db86afb5d69117db369191293\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>House Republicans lead</b>。 Also according to FiveThirtyEight's House forecast model, Republicans have a significant lead in the House of Representatives by about 70%, and are expected to gain about 17 more seats than Democrats, equivalent to 4% of the total seats. This is mainly due to two reasons: First, after the 2020 census, the population growth rate of Republican-dominated states was higher than that of Democratic-dominated states, so the Republicans gained more House seats. On the other hand, this year, more Democratic House members have chosen to retire and no longer seek*, thus giving Republicans more opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57de9db5b284f0debd0a0c32249c6a8e\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Biden's administration will face limitations if he loses both houses of parliament.</b>。 According to FiveThirtyEight's comprehensive model prediction, Biden has a nearly 30% probability of losing both the Senate and House of Representatives, becoming the so-called \"<b>Lame Duck President</b>It has executive power but loses the legislative power of Congress. In fact,<b>\"Lame duck president\" is not uncommon in history</b>In 10 of the 25 sessions of Congress over the past 50 years (40%), both houses were controlled by the president's opposing party. Six of the nine presidents lost the support of both houses during their term in office.</p><p><b>Losing congressional support would mean</b>First of all,<b>In the legislative power of Congress</b>Biden may need to make significant concessions and compromises to the Republican Party to advance his policies. Secondly,<b>On \"money pocket rights\"</b>Biden's Democratic Party will find it more difficult to introduce bills related to core Democratic political ideals, such as tax increases. Finally,<b>On the right to amend the constitution and military power</b>We don't expect it to have much of an impact. Furthermore, losing Congress would not have a significant impact on monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve system is subject to congressional oversight, its decision-making is relatively independent.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the privileges of each parliament</b>Given the high probability of Biden losing the House of Representatives, he is expected to lose the initiative in implementing tax and fiscal policies, making it more difficult for the United States to pass fiscal subsidy bills for domestic industries in the future. If he unfortunately loses the Senate, his privileges may have little impact on Biden's administration. The Senate's main prerogative lies in approving federal officials appointed by the president. Currently, the probability of personnel changes at the federal level is low, the Supreme Court justices are relatively healthy, and the terms of Federal Reserve officials have only just begun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aa68553eceed97850929f4bb0acd0b\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes, economic recovery falling short of expectations, risk of calculation deviations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are Biden's chances of winning the midterm elections?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are Biden's chances of winning the midterm elections?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-08 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The primary elections for the US midterm elections have ended, and the final elections will begin in early November. The midterm elections will determine the party affiliation in the House of Representatives, thereby influencing the future direction and effectiveness of Biden's administration. So, what should we vote for in the midterm elections? Why are the midterm elections so important? Will Biden lose the House? This report analyzes this.</p><p><h3>1. What are the important elections in the United States?</h3>Before we talk about the midterm elections,<b>First, we need to develop a basic understanding of the American political system.</b></p><p><b>The political foundation of the \"separation of powers\".</b>The U.S. Constitution divides the powers of the federal government into three parts, allowing for checks and balances and mutual independence. Legislative power is in the hands of Congress, which is divided into two parts: the Senate and the House of Representatives, whose responsibilities, powers, and number of members are very different. Executive power is delegated to the president and the White House. Judicial power rests with the Supreme Court, which is decided by nine lifetime Supreme Court Justices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda36251c8cb459ed05bc0e479d422f4\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Executive power is exercised by the President of the United States and Cabinet members</b>。 The United States<b>Presidential election</b>，<b>Commonly known as the general election</b>It is also an extremely popular international event held every four years. Presidential elections are based on the Electoral College system, which is unique to the United States.<b>First,</b>The electors of each state are chosen by the votes of the electors.<b>Then,</b>The electors who receive the most votes in the state then vote for the presidential candidate on behalf of the entire state's voters.<b>in the end</b>The candidate who receives more than 270 votes out of 538 electoral votes will win. Furthermore, it's worth noting that each state's electors hold the same number of votes as its members of Congress, and the number of House seats is determined by the state's total population, so states with larger populations also have more votes. Generally speaking, the more electoral votes a president receives, the greater the total number of voters supporting him. However, there have been five special cases in history where the winning president lagged behind in total electoral votes but had a lead in electoral votes. For example, in 2016, Trump, although lagging behind by nearly 3 million electoral votes, won the election by a significant margin of 77 electoral votes (14% of the total vote).</p><p><b>Cabinet members are not involved in elections</b>Appointed by and accountable to the President. Typically, the successor president proposes cabinet nominees to the Senate before taking the oath of office. More than 20 cabinet positions, such as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, require the opinions of relevant Senate committees, and then the Senate votes on them, requiring a majority vote to pass.</p><p><b>In addition to electing the cabinet, the president has the following five main powers. First,</b>Nominate him for federal positions such as the Supreme Court Justice and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.<b>Second,</b>The passage or rejection of bills passed by Congress serves as the final hurdle in the legislative process.<b>Third,</b>The power to sign executive orders, that is, to legislate indirectly by issuing executive orders to federal agencies.<b>Fourth,</b>Pardon power, that is, the president can pardon some people who have violated federal law.<b>Fifth,</b>Military command: As the supreme commander of the U.S. military, the president can request Congress to exercise the power to declare war, and can also command the U.S. military in both wartime and non-wartime.<b>in addition</b>The president can participate in diplomacy, declare a national emergency, and sign international treaties with the approval of the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc6092dbae8224d63a5d5d59f1642fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Legislative power is exercised by Congress</b>。 Congress is involved<b>Senator</b>and<b>Congressman</b>The election. At the same time as each election, the U.S. Congress is also in the process of changing its leadership. But unlike a presidential election,<b>Congressional elections are not held only in election years, but every even-numbered year. Mid-term elections</b>This is the process by which members of Congress are re-elected during the president's term, two years after the president takes office. Representatives serve two-year terms, meaning the entire House of Representatives needs to be re-elected every two years. The term of the Senate is six years, but the 100 members are divided into three staggered batches (33, 33, and 34 members respectively), so that one-third of the Senate is replaced every two years. In total, there are about 468 congressional seats waiting for new owners in each general and midterm election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cec6ac0276cbc86e3f215aaf0f35540\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Members are determined by universal suffrage.</b>In<b>Electoral system</b>Previously, parliamentary elections did not use the electoral system, but were directly determined by universal suffrage. Senators are elected by statewide residents, while House members are elected only by residents of the district themselves. Congress<b>Election Process</b>Usually divided into<b>Three stages</b>: Primary, Final, Final.<b>First</b>Primary elections are an election process within each party. Each party needs to elect a party candidate for each congressional seat.<b>Secondly</b>For most states in the United States, if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the primary, the top two candidates with the most votes will advance to the next round of competition.<b>Runner-up</b>。<b>in the end</b>The party candidates who win the primaries and runoffs will travel to Washington to compete against candidates from other parties, which is the final election and the last step in the congressional reshuffle.</p><p>Because each state has a different election schedule, the primary and runoff elections last about six months, usually between March and September of an election year, while the final election is usually held on the second Tuesday of November of that year. This year's final election will be held on November 8, and the final election results will be announced by each state in November and December. The newly elected 118th members of Congress are scheduled to take office on January 3, 2023. The state primaries have now concluded, meaning the party races are over. More than 400 winners of both parties' primaries will compete in Washington, D.C., three months later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376f5d1fdca5627a30e5c7153b86373d\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judicial power is exercised by the Chief Justice.</b>Supreme Court justices are nominated by the President of the United States and must be approved by a majority vote of the Senate. on account of<b>The term of office of the Chief Justice is for life.</b>Vacancies for presidential nomination only arise when a current Supreme Court justice dies, retires voluntarily, or is removed from office. The inauguration process of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Jackson is a typical example of a judicial transition:<b>First</b>Biden nominated Jackson on February 25 to replace Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, who voluntarily retired in January.<b>subsequently</b>The Senate voted on Jackson on April 7 and passed it 53-47.<b>in the end</b>Jackson was sworn in on June 30th of this year. There are currently no vacant Supreme Court seats awaiting re-election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885b7e4a220c570c9f7d7f433bff57c4\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Supreme Court interprets the Constitution</b>。 The Supreme Court's ruling is based on the nine justices' interpretation of the Constitution, so it is the final ruling of the entire judicial system and can only be overturned by amending the Constitution through Congress. Therefore, under the American case law system, a Supreme Court justice's ruling is a...<b>Indirect \"legislative\" behavior</b>。 Combining such supreme power, lifetime tenure, and subjectivity in interpreting the Constitution, the political leanings of the Supreme Court justices play a crucial role in American society as a whole. Although the justices' political party information is not public, their political leanings can be clearly reflected in their decisions and statements. The current Supreme Court consists of six Republican-leaning justices and three Democratic-leaning justices. Under such a long-standing conservative dominance, the Republican Party uses the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Constitution to promote its political ideology, subtly changing the direction of the legal and social environment in the United States, such as promoting big government and restricting equal rights.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf187581b0026bfb8614a65297ebbd7\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The governor's race is also worth watching.</b>This year, 36 gubernatorial seats are up for election, and the election process for governor is similar to that of congressional elections, consisting of two stages: a primary, a runoff, and a final election. The governor is the highest point of executive power in each state, and therefore has similar powers to the president, the highest office in the federal executive system, and has even greater influence in the state than the president. These powers benefit from the fact that the U.S. Constitution allows states to maintain a certain degree of independence. Because state laws vary from state to state, the powers of the governor also differ, but generally speaking, they fall into the following five categories:<b>First,</b>To pass or reject state law bills proposed by the state legislature;<b>Second</b>Approve the state's budget and appropriations;<b>Third</b>Appointing officials of state administrative agencies with the approval of the state legislature;<b>Fourth</b>Signing state-level executive orders;<b>Fifth</b>Declare a state of emergency in the state to invoke emergency privileges.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f602073a8f15ab36dea3693ddb66b80\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve system is outside the three branches of government.</b>As the central bank of the United States, its operations and decision-making<b>Independent of the federal government</b>Mainly dedicated to formulating<b>Monetary policy</b>and to the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>To conduct supervision, etc. The Federal Reserve mainly consists of three parts: the Federal Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Federal Board of Governors at its core. The Governing Council implements monetary policy through the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, and its members and the chairmen of each Federal Reserve Bank form the Federal Open Market Committee. Members of the Federal Reserve Board are directly nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by a vote of the Senate for a term of 14 years and are not eligible for*. The terms of office of the directors are staggered by two years, meaning that a new director takes office every even-numbered year. The Chairman's term of office is 4 years and he can*until the end of his 14-year term as a member. Similar to senators, the Fed's exceptionally long term and biennial leadership rotation ensure its medium- to long-term independence, free from excessive influence from the ruling party.</p><p><h3>2. Why are the midterm elections important?</h3><b>The midterm elections involve the re-election of members of Congress.</b>Congress's primary authority lies in legislation. From government budgets to defense bills, laws large and small need to go through a lengthy congressional process. In addition to legislation, Congress has the following important powers: First,<b>Power to amend the Constitution</b>； Second, \"<b>\"Money Purse Rights\"</b>That is, the power to exercise appropriations through the three major committees of appropriations, budget, and fund-raising; Thirdly, some<b>military power</b>This mainly includes the power to declare war and the power to provide military funding. In addition to the above powers,<b>The Senate and the House of Representatives each have their own privileges</b></p><p>In the Senate,<b>First</b>The main privilege is<b>Approval of federal positions nominated by the President</b>This includes cabinet members, the Supreme Court Justice, and members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Only during the recess of Congress and the Senate can the president use his recess appointment power to appoint officials of his choice without Senate approval, but the Senate has also developed some cumbersome new countermeasures in recent years to circumvent this presidential prerogative.<b>Secondly</b>The Senate needs to consider any proposal made by the House of Representatives.<b>Recall motion for vote ruling</b>。<b>Finally,</b>The Senate also has the power to ratify and adopt international treaties.</p><p>In the House of Representatives,<b>First,</b>The most important privilege is<b>Initiate fiscal and tax-related proposals</b>。 Any bill involving fiscal revenue must be introduced by the House of Representatives.<b>Secondly,</b>The House of Representatives owns<b>recall</b>The rights of any federal official cover the entire political system, including the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, and even the president. Historically, three U.S. presidents have been formally impeached by the House of Representatives: Johnson, Clinton, and Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14761046bda55cce9fd58e6bfbc3a8d0\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Senate represents the interests of the states</b>。 Regardless of the size, population, or economic situation of each state, all 50 states in the United States equally hold two Senate seats, for a total of 100 senators. The current Senate party distribution consists of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Libertarians. Because the two liberal senators lean politically toward the Democratic Party, the two parties have evenly matched voting rights in the Senate. In addition to the senators, the Senate has a separate presidency, which is held by the incumbent vice president. Therefore, when the Senate fails to reach a majority vote, the Senate President will have the right to cast an additional deciding vote. Currently, US Vice President Harris is a Democrat.<b>The Senate as a whole is controlled by the Democrats.</b></p><p>The Senate's special term and rotation system, for<b>Checks and balances between the president and the House of</b>It plays a crucial role. The term of office for senators is six years, and the 100 senators are divided into three batches, one of which is replaced every two years. Compared to representatives and presidents, senators have longer terms and can focus more on the long-term interests of the country than on short-term achievements, *, and elections. At the same time, a batch of leadership changes every two years can ensure that there is enough fresh blood in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856f4c50d5110ca20dbd359766bfceeb\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The House of Representatives is allocated seats in proportion to its population.</b>。 The U.S. Constitution first allocates 435 seats to the House of Representatives based on the proportions of each state's population according to the latest census. At the same time, districts are redrawn within each state based on population and the number of seats in the state, and each seat will represent that district in Congress. Following the latest census in 2020, the number of seats in 13 states has changed. Of these, seven states saw a decrease in the number of voters, and five were Democratic-led. There were six increases in numbers, and four were Republican-dominated. Overall, Republican-dominated states gained more seats. This year, as the first House of Representatives election since the new gerrymandering, may be particularly advantageous for the Republican Party.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcb3c079613d1b1683580897d7dffab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How are typical bills enacted?</b>We have compiled a typical bill-making process:<b>First step</b>Any member of the Senate or the House of Representatives may<b>drafting</b>A proposal.<b>Step Two</b>The bill is being drafted in the House of Representatives.<b>publicity</b>。<b>Step Three</b>After the bill was publicized, it was allocated to one of the chambers.<b>The Committee further studied</b>。 During the study process, the committee may hold notarial meetings to invite experts and officials from administrative agencies to express their opinions.<b>Step 4</b>The committee allocated the bills to more specialized agencies.<b>Subcommittee conducts research</b>Amend and vote on whether to refer the proposal back to the committee for the next step.<b>Step 5</b>The committee considered the proposal.<b>revision</b>And vote on whether to put the bill to a full vote in the House.<b>Step 6</b>This House will proceed to vote. such as<b>If passed, the bill will be sent to another chamber.</b>Repeat steps 1 through 6. In this process, Congress can open<b>Consultative Committee,</b>Coordinate different versions of the bill in both chambers.<b>Step 7</b>If the consultative committee members successfully help both houses reach a consensus, a consultation report must be prepared and submitted by...<b>The two chambers voted separately.</b>Through.<b>Step 8</b>After the same version of the bill is passed by both houses of parliament, it will be...<b>Send to the President</b>。 The president must make a decision on the bill within 10 days.<b>Pass or reject</b>If the deadline is not met, the proposal will be automatically passed. If the president exercises his veto power, Congress can try to override the president's veto power by voting. The president's veto would be overridden if both houses passed the bill by at least two-thirds of the vote.<b>The legislation was successful.</b></p><p>In the Senate's legislative process, members can use certain Senate-specific tactics to interfere with the vote on a bill, the most prominent of which is...<b>Obstruction of proceedings</b>。 Because the Senate stipulates that members can express their views for an unlimited period of time without being interrupted, weaker parties can use \"obstruction matters\" to deliver a speech lasting dozens of hours to obstruct the Senate voting process. The threatening effect of obstruction is now unlikely to take effect, and the Senate can pass 60 votes to limit the speaking time of a member.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e621ce8dcebb55448dac306445dd3f\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h3>3. Will Biden lose the House of Representatives?</h3><b>The ruling party often loses the House of Representatives in midterm elections.</b>Historically, in midterm elections, the ruling party usually loses a large number of congressional seats. In the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the ruling party has lost an average of 28 House of Representatives seats, accounting for about 6% of the total. Lost an average of 4 Senate seats, or 4% of the total seats. If we look at a more recent period, from 1975 to the present, in the last 12 midterm elections,<b>83% of the ruling party lost the support of the House of Representatives</b>It is clear that the House of Representatives is the ruling party's biggest nightmare in the midterm elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e64b0c61909b39e4237f9f242936a61\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some scholars have attempted to explain this phenomenon, with two of the more mainstream theories being:<b>skirt effect</b>and<b>Presidential punishment</b>。<b>skirt effect</b>This means that when the president becomes popular in the general election, he will guide voters to support members of that party in entering Congress. By the time of the midterm elections two years later, voters had become apathetic and dissatisfied with unfulfilled campaign manifestos, and their enthusiasm for voting had decreased significantly.<b>Presidential punishment</b>This means that voters are more willing to vote when they are angry, and if the turnout and number of angry voters (mostly from opposing parties) are greater than that of satisfied voters, then the president's camp is more likely to lose a congressional seat. This year, Republican voter enthusiasm was much higher than in the 2018 midterm elections, while Democratic voter enthusiasm was low. It can be inferred that,<b>High enthusiasm for voting in the primary election may mean that Republican voters will also turn out more in the final election.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371ded2b24ed57e52a4da42729ecfcaa\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Approval ratings determine who wins the House of Representatives.</b>Statistics show that there is a significant correlation between a president's approval rating during the midterm elections and the number of congressional seats lost by the ruling party in that election. The lower the president's approval rating in the midterm elections, the more House of Representatives seats he loses. According to statistics from the authoritative election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight, Biden's approval rating during this period ranks last among presidents in nearly 80 years, and his current approval rating is slightly higher than Reagan and Trump by an extremely narrow margin. Biden has a very high probability of losing a significant number of congressional seats.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8736610e36aa98adc53c1f6ce86aa93\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Senate Democrats lead.</b>According to FiveThirtyEight's late September Senate midterm election model, Democrats currently have a higher probability of winning the Senate than Republicans, with a Democratic chance of winning of about 70% and a lead of about 1-2 seats. This lead was hard-won, and the Republicans maintained a stable advantage until the end of July. With the passage of the chip bill, Biden's approval rating rose steadily, leading the Democrats to gradually take the lead in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3836db86afb5d69117db369191293\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>House Republicans lead</b>。 Also according to FiveThirtyEight's House forecast model, Republicans have a significant lead in the House of Representatives by about 70%, and are expected to gain about 17 more seats than Democrats, equivalent to 4% of the total seats. This is mainly due to two reasons: First, after the 2020 census, the population growth rate of Republican-dominated states was higher than that of Democratic-dominated states, so the Republicans gained more House seats. On the other hand, this year, more Democratic House members have chosen to retire and no longer seek*, thus giving Republicans more opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57de9db5b284f0debd0a0c32249c6a8e\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Biden's administration will face limitations if he loses both houses of parliament.</b>。 According to FiveThirtyEight's comprehensive model prediction, Biden has a nearly 30% probability of losing both the Senate and House of Representatives, becoming the so-called \"<b>Lame Duck President</b>It has executive power but loses the legislative power of Congress. In fact,<b>\"Lame duck president\" is not uncommon in history</b>In 10 of the 25 sessions of Congress over the past 50 years (40%), both houses were controlled by the president's opposing party. Six of the nine presidents lost the support of both houses during their term in office.</p><p><b>Losing congressional support would mean</b>First of all,<b>In the legislative power of Congress</b>Biden may need to make significant concessions and compromises to the Republican Party to advance his policies. Secondly,<b>On \"money pocket rights\"</b>Biden's Democratic Party will find it more difficult to introduce bills related to core Democratic political ideals, such as tax increases. Finally,<b>On the right to amend the constitution and military power</b>We don't expect it to have much of an impact. Furthermore, losing Congress would not have a significant impact on monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve system is subject to congressional oversight, its decision-making is relatively independent.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the privileges of each parliament</b>Given the high probability of Biden losing the House of Representatives, he is expected to lose the initiative in implementing tax and fiscal policies, making it more difficult for the United States to pass fiscal subsidy bills for domestic industries in the future. If he unfortunately loses the Senate, his privileges may have little impact on Biden's administration. The Senate's main prerogative lies in approving federal officials appointed by the president. Currently, the probability of personnel changes at the federal level is low, the Supreme Court justices are relatively healthy, and the terms of Federal Reserve officials have only just begun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aa68553eceed97850929f4bb0acd0b\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes, economic recovery falling short of expectations, risk of calculation deviations.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555249\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b0ec49e09fe3649cc7f7f662e136c7","relate_stocks":{"FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555249","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2273357388","content_text":"美国中期选举初选已经结束，终选将于11月初开启。中期选举将决定参众议院的党派归属，从而影响未来拜登施政的方向与效果。那么，中期选举选什么？为何中期选举如此重要？拜登会输掉众议院吗？本报告对此展开分析。1. 美国重要选举有哪些？在谈论中期选举之前，首先我们需要对美国政治体系形成一个基础性的认识。“三权分立”的政治基础。美国宪法将联邦政府的职权一分为三，使得各方相互制衡、相互独立。其中立法权掌握在国会的手中，分为参议院与众议院两部分，其职责、权力、议员数量都大不相同。行政权被交付给总统和白宫。司法权在最高法院，由九位终身任职的最高大法官决定。行政权由美国总统和内阁成员行使。而美国的总统选举，俗称大选，也是四年一度的极为热门的国际事件。总统选举依据的是美国特有的选举人团制度（Electoral College）。首先，由每个州的选民票选出该州的选举人。然后，再由该州得票最多的选举人代表整个州的选民对总统候选人进行投票。最后，在538个选举人票中获得超过270票的候选人将获胜。此外，值得一提的是，每个州的选举人所持有的票数和该州的国会议员数量相同，而众议院席位数由该州总人口决定，因此人口多的州拥有的选票数额也更多。通常而言，总统获得的选举人票越多，则意味着支持他的选民总数也越多。然而历史上也出现过5次特殊情况，即获胜总统的总选民数量落后，但选举人票领先，如2016年特朗普虽落后近300万选民数，但以77张选举人票（14%总票数）的大幅领先而赢下大选。内阁成员不涉及选举，由总统任命并对其负责。通常，继任总统在宣誓入职前向参议院提出内阁人选，其中国防部长和国务卿等超过20个内阁职位需要参议院相关委员会出示意见，随后再由参议院投票，支持过半才能通过。除选阁之外，总统还有以下五大主要职权。第一，推举最高法官、美联储理事会成员等联邦职位。第二，对国会所通过的法案进行通过或否决，作为立法流程的最后一个关卡。第三，签署行政命令的权利，即通过向联邦机构发出行政命令来间接的立法。第四，赦免权，即总统可以对一些触犯了联邦法的人进行赦免。第五，军事指挥权，总统作为美国军队最高统领，可以要求国会行使宣战权，同时也可以在战时和非战时指挥美国军队。此外，总统可以参与外交，宣布国家紧急状态，以及在参议院的审批下签署国际条约。立法权由国会行使。国会则涉及参议员和众议员的选举。在每次大选进行的同时，美国国会同样也在换届的过程中。但有别于总统选举的是，国会选举并非仅在大选年进行，而是每个偶数年进行一次。中期选举也就是在总统上任的两年后，国会议员在总统任期中再度换届的过程。众议员的任期是两年，即每两年整个众议院都需要重新改选。参议院的任期是六年，但是100位议员被分为三个交错的批次（分别有33、33和34人），因此每两年都有1/3的参议院进行换届。总的来说，在每次大选和中期选举中，都会有约468名国会席位等待新的主人。议员由普选决定。在选举制度上，国会选举并不使用选举人制度，而是由普选直接决定。其中，参议员的选举由全州居民投选，而众议员则只由该辖区的居民自己投选。国会选举流程通常分为三个阶段：初选、决选、终选。首先，初选是一个各党派内部的选举过程。每个党派内需要为每一个国会席位票选出一个党内候选人。其次，对美国的大多数州来说，如果初选中没有候选人获得50%的票数，则得票最多的前两名候选人将进行下一轮角逐，即决选。最后，在初选和决选中胜出的党内候选人将前往华盛顿与其他党派的候选人一决胜负，而这就是终选，也是国会换届选举的最后一个环节。由于每个州的选举日程不同，初选和决选将持续约半年之久，通常在选举年的3月到9月间进行，而终选通常在当年11月第二个星期二。今年的终选将在11月8日举行，而最终的选举结果将陆续由各个州在11月和12月公布。新选举出的第118届国会议员将计划于2023年1月3日就任。目前各州初选已经结束，意味着党内角逐已经结束，四百余名两党初选的胜者将于三个月后在华盛顿特区一决高下。司法权由大法官行使。最高法院大法官由美国总统提名，需经参议院过半票数决议通过。由于大法官的任期为终身制，只有在现任大法官辞世、主动退休或被罢免，才会出现空缺供总统提名。大法官凯坦吉·杰克森的上任流程就是较为典型的司法换届过程：首先，拜登于今年2月25日提名杰克森来接替1月主动退休的大法官斯蒂芬布雷耶。随后，参议院于4月7日对杰克森投票并以53-47票通过。最后，杰克森于今年6月30日宣誓入职。目前没有空缺的大法官席位等待换届。大法官对宪法进行解读。最高法院的裁决依据的是九位大法官对宪法的解读，所以是整个司法体系的最终裁决，唯有通过国会修订宪法才可以推翻。因此，在美国的判例法制度下，最高法院大法官的裁决是一种间接“立法”行为。结合这样至高的权力、终身的任期和对宪法解读的主观性，大法官的政治倾向对整个美国社会都有着至关重要的作用。虽然大法官的政治党派信息是非公开的，但其政治倾向可以由其判决结果和声明清晰地反映出来。当前最高法院由6名倾向共和党和3名倾向民主党的大法官组成。在这样的长期保守派占优的现状下，共和党通过最高法院对于宪法的解读来推行自己的政治理念，潜移默化地改变美国的法律和社会环境发展方向，例如推行大政府和限制平权。州长的竞选也同样值得关注。今年共有36个州长席位改选，而州长的竞选方式与国会选举类似，也由初选决选以及终选两个环节组成。州长是每个州行政权的制高点，因此和联邦行政系统中最高职位的总统职权相似，在本州中其影响力甚至大于总统。这些权力得益于美国宪法允许各州保持一定的独立性。由于每个州的州法不同，州长的职权也不尽相同，但通常来说包括以下五大类：一是通过或否决州议院所提出的州法法案；二是审批本州的预算和拨款；三是在州议院审批下，任命州行政机关官员；四是签署州级行政命令；五是宣布本州进入紧急状态，以动用紧急状态下的特权。美联储系统在三权之外。作为美国的央行，其运营与决策独立于联邦政府，主要致力于制定货币政策和对美国金融机构进行监管等。美联储主要由美联储理事会、联储银行和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）这三个部分组成，其核心是美联储理事会。理事会通过12个联储银行来实施货币政策，而理事会的成员以及各联储银行的主席构建成联邦公开市场委员会。联储理事会的成员由美国总统直接提名，并由参议院投票确认，任期为14年且不可连任。理事的任期错开两年，即每偶数年都有新的理事上任。主席任期为4年且可以连任直至其14年理事任期结束。和参议员相似，超长的任期和两年一度的换届确保了联储在中长期的独立性，不受执政党派过多的影响。2. 中期选举为何重要？中期选举涉及国会议员改选。国会的主要职权在于立法，从政府预算到国防法案，大大小小的法律都需要经过冗长的国会流程来通过。除立法外，国会还有以下重要职权：一是修宪权；二是“钱袋权”，即通过拨款、预算和筹款三大委员会来实现拨款的权力；三是部分军权，主要包括宣战权和提供军费的权力。除以上职权外，参众两院各有特权。参议院方面，首先，最主要的特权是对总统推举的联邦职位进行批准，其中包括内阁成员、最高法官和美联储理事会成员。只有在国会参议院休会期间，总统可以使用休会任命权，在不经参议院批准的情况下任命自己推举的官员，但近年来参议院也有一些繁琐的新对策来规避这一总统特权。其次，参议院需要对任何众议院所提出的罢免提议进行投票裁决。最后，参议院还有权批准通过国际条约。众议院方面，首先，最重要特权是发起财政税收相关议案。但凡是涉及财政税收的议案，必须由众议院提出。其次，众议院拥有罢免任何联邦官员的权利，涵盖了行政、立法和司法整个政治体系，甚至包括总统。历史上曾有三位美国总统被众议院正式提出罢免，分别是约翰逊、克林顿和特朗普。参议院代表各州权益。无论各个州的面积、人口、经济状况如何，美国的50个州都平等的拥有两个参议院席位，总计100名参议员。当前的参议员政党分布为50名共和党员，48名民主党员及2名自由党派人士。由于两名自由党派参议员在政治方向上偏向民主党，因此两党阵营在参议院投票权旗鼓相当。在参议员之外，参议院另设有参议院主席职位，由在任副总统担任。因此当参议院未能决出多数票时，参议院主席将有权投出额外的一张决胜票。时下美国副总统哈里斯为民主党员，参议院整体受民主党控制。参议院特殊的任期和换届制度，对于制衡总统和众议院有着至关重要的作用。参议员的任期为6年，而100名参议员被一共分为3个批次，每两年对其中一个批次进行换届。与众议员和总统相比参议员有更长的任期，可以更着眼于国家的长期利益，而非致力于短期政绩、连任和选举。同时每两年进行一个批次的换届可以确保参议院中有足够多的新鲜血液。众议院按照人口比例分配席位。美国宪法先按照最新的人口普查中的各州的人口比例来分配435个众议员席位。同时，在每个州内根据人口和该州席位数量再划分选区，每个席位将在国会中代表这个选区。在2020年的最新人口普查后，共有13个州的席位数量发生变化。其中，7个州人数减少，5个是民主党主导；有6个人数增加，4个是共和党主导。总体来看，共和党主导的州获得了更多的席位。今年作为新的选区划分后的首次众议员选举，或对共和党格外有利。典型法案如何立法？我们整理出一个典型的法案立法过程：第一步，参议院或众议院中的任意一位议员可以起草一个议案。第二步，议案在起草议员所在的议院公示。第三步，议案在公示后被分配给该议院的一个委员会进一步研究。委员会在研究过程中可以开设公证会，邀请行政机构专家和官员发表意见。第四步，委员会将议案下分给更专业的附属委员会进行研究、修改和票决是否将议案移交回委员会进入下一步流程。第五步，委员会对议案进行修订，并票决是否将议案在该议院进行全体投票。第六步，本议院进行投票。如通过则将议案递送至另一议院，重复第1至6步流程。在此过程中，国会可以开设协商委员会，对两个议院不同版本的该议案进行协调。第七步，如果协商委员成功帮助两议院达成共识，则需撰写协商报告并由两个议院分别投票通过。第八步，同一版本的议案在两议院都得到投票通过后将被送至总统。总统需在10天内对议案进行决议通过或否决，逾期则议案自动通过。若总统行使否决权，国会可通过投票尝试推翻总统的否决权。只要两议院各以至少2/3的票数通过该法案，则总统的否决将被推翻，立法成功。在参议院的立法流程中，议员可以使用一些参议院特有的手段来干预一个法案的投票，其中最突出的是阻挠议事。由于参议院规定议员可以无限时长不被打断的发表观点，较弱势的党派可以使用“阻挠事宜”进行一段长达数十小时的发言，来阻碍参议院投票进程。阻挠事宜的威胁效果目前已经很难生效，参议院可以通过60票来为一个议员的发言时间设限。3.拜登会失去众议院吗？执政党中期选举往往丢掉众议院。从历史上来看，中期选举中，执政党通常会失去大量的国会席位。在从1934年至今的22次中期选举中，执政党平均丢掉28个众议院席位，约占总席位数约6%；平均失去4个参议院席位，即4%的总席位。如果考察更近的一段时间，从1975年至今的过去12次中期选举中，83%的执政党失去了众议院的支持，可见众议院是执政党在中期选举中最大的噩梦。部分学者尝试对这一现象进行解释，其中较为主流的两个理论分别是裙摆效应和总统惩罚。裙摆效应是指，总统在大选中受欢迎时，将引导选民支持该政党的议员进驻国会。而两年后中期选举时，选民已经冷淡，并对没有实现的竞选宣言感到不满，投票热情大幅降低。总统惩罚是指，选民在生气时投票的意愿更强，而如果生气的选民（大多是对立党派）投票率和数量大于满意的选民，那么总统的阵营更容易输掉国会席位。今年共和党的选民投票热情度较2018年中期选举高出很多，而民主党投票热情低迷。可以推测，初选的高投票热情度可能意味着共和党选民在终选中投票率也会更高。支持率决定众议院归属。经过数据统计，我们发现，总统在中期选举期间支持率的水平和该届中期选举执政党失去的国会席位数有较为明显的关系，中期支持率越低的总统，失去的众议院席位数也越多。根据权威选举预测网站FiveThirtyEight的统计，拜登的同期支持率在近80年来的总统中位列倒数，当前支持率以极其微弱的优势略高于里根和特朗普。拜登有极高概率失去较多的国会席位。参议院民主党领先。根据FiveThirtyEight九月下旬的参议院中期选举模型预测，当前民主党比共和党有更高概率赢下参议院，民主党的胜算约为70%且领先约1-2个席位。这一领先是得来不易的，直到7月底之前共和党都还保持着稳定的优势，而随着芯片法案的通过，拜登的支持率一路上行，才带领着民主党在参议院逐渐领跑。众议院共和党领先。同样根据FiveThirtyEight的众议院预测模型，共和党在众议院以约70%的优势大幅领先，预计将多出民主党约17个席位，折合4%的总席位数。这主要得益于两点：一方面，2020年人口普查后，共和党占主导的州人口增速高于民主党主导的州，因此共和党获得更多众议院席位。另一方面，今年有较多的民主党众议员选择退休不再谋取连任，因此给共和党更多机会。一旦失去两院，拜登执政将面临受限。根据FiveThirtyEight的综合模型预测，拜登有近三成概率失去参众两院，成为所谓的“跛脚鸭总统”，空有行政权却失去国会立法权。事实上，“跛脚鸭总统”在历史上并不少见，在过去50年的25届国会中，有10届（40%）中两院都是由总统的对立党派控制。9任总统中6任曾在执政期间失去两院的支持。如果失去国会的支持，则意味着：首先，在国会立法权上，拜登或需对共和党进行较大的让步和妥协来推进政策。其次，在“钱袋权”上，拜登所在的民主党将更难推出加税等民主党核心政治理念相关的法案。最后，在修宪权和军权上，我们预计将不会有太大影响。此外，丢掉国会对货币政策也不会有太大的影响，美联储系统虽受国会监督，但是其决策是相对独立的。从各议院的特权来看，由于拜登丢掉众议院概率较大，预计拜登在推行税收和财政政策上将失去主动权，未来美国通过对国内行业的财政补贴法案的难度或将上升。如果不幸丢掉参议院，其特权或对拜登执政影响不大。参议院的主要特权在于对批准总统任命的联邦官员，当前联邦层面人事变动概率较小，大法官均比较健康，而美联储官员任期也才刚刚开始。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期，测算偏差风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FOMC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025209209,"gmtCreate":1653693896501,"gmtModify":1676535326539,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025209209","repostId":"1194051101","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194051101","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653661197,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194051101?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 22:19","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose, with Rivian gaining nearly 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194051101","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，美股新能车股普涨，Rivian、Lordstown Motors涨近7%，特斯拉涨超5%，法拉第未来、Lucid Group涨近4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>Up nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group</a>It rose nearly 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0325c17e8ad89970eca04ba1c1fa8010\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose, with Rivian gaining nearly 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS new energy vehicle stocks generally rose, with Rivian gaining nearly 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 22:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27, US new energy vehicle stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>Up nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group</a>It rose nearly 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0325c17e8ad89970eca04ba1c1fa8010\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194051101","content_text":"5月27日，美股新能车股普涨，Rivian、Lordstown Motors涨近7%，特斯拉涨超5%，法拉第未来、Lucid Group涨近4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"FFIE":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067003481,"gmtCreate":1652392593443,"gmtModify":1676535088788,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067003481","repostId":"1196326369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016672139,"gmtCreate":1649198551579,"gmtModify":1676534466174,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016672139","repostId":"1120782631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120782631","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649167716,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120782631?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 22:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve's Brainard: Balance sheet may shrink rapidly as early as May.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120782631","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月5日，美股短线走低，纳指跌1%，标普500指数跌0.2%，道指涨幅收窄至0.2%；美联储理事布雷纳德：美联储可能最快将在5月快速收缩资产负债表。美联储理事布雷纳德今日就通胀发表讲话，布雷纳德表示，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 5, U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with the Nasdaq down 1%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gains narrowing to 0.2%. Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: The Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aecb29da66aba35fe19f3de0e92147ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard spoke today about inflation. Brainard said that the Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May, and he expects the balance sheet to shrink much faster than the previous recovery. On the balance sheet, I expect the maximum limit to increase significantly compared to 2017-2019, and the tapering period to be shortened.</p><p>The combined effects of rate hike and balance sheet reduction will make monetary policy more neutral later this year.</p><p>With policy more neutral, the extent of further tightening depends on changes in inflation and employment prospects.</p><p>If inflation and inflation expectations indicators suggest that such action is necessary, the Federal Reserve is prepared to take more forceful action.</p><p>The current inflation rate is too high, making it vulnerable to upside risks.</p><p>I am watching the yield curve and other data for signs of increased downside risks to economic activity.</p><p>Long-term inflation expectations remain within historical ranges.</p><p>The extent of the shift from demand for goods to demand for services is being carefully monitored to see if the service sector can absorb this demand without triggering inflationary pressures.</p><p>The burden of inflation on low-income households, i.e., those with larger family members or older heads of household, is not included in the official consumer price index.</p><p>The Federal Reserve can adjust policy at each meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve's Brainard: Balance sheet may shrink rapidly as early as May.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve's Brainard: Balance sheet may shrink rapidly as early as May.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-05 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 5, U.S. stocks fell in the short term, with the Nasdaq down 1%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gains narrowing to 0.2%. Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: The Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aecb29da66aba35fe19f3de0e92147ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard spoke today about inflation. Brainard said that the Fed may rapidly shrink its balance sheet as early as May, and he expects the balance sheet to shrink much faster than the previous recovery. On the balance sheet, I expect the maximum limit to increase significantly compared to 2017-2019, and the tapering period to be shortened.</p><p>The combined effects of rate hike and balance sheet reduction will make monetary policy more neutral later this year.</p><p>With policy more neutral, the extent of further tightening depends on changes in inflation and employment prospects.</p><p>If inflation and inflation expectations indicators suggest that such action is necessary, the Federal Reserve is prepared to take more forceful action.</p><p>The current inflation rate is too high, making it vulnerable to upside risks.</p><p>I am watching the yield curve and other data for signs of increased downside risks to economic activity.</p><p>Long-term inflation expectations remain within historical ranges.</p><p>The extent of the shift from demand for goods to demand for services is being carefully monitored to see if the service sector can absorb this demand without triggering inflationary pressures.</p><p>The burden of inflation on low-income households, i.e., those with larger family members or older heads of household, is not included in the official consumer price index.</p><p>The Federal Reserve can adjust policy at each meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120782631","content_text":"4月5日，美股短线走低，纳指跌1%，标普500指数跌0.2%，道指涨幅收窄至0.2%；美联储理事布雷纳德：美联储可能最快将在5月快速收缩资产负债表。美联储理事布雷纳德今日就通胀发表讲话，布雷纳德表示，美联储可能最快将在5月快速收缩资产负债表，我预计资产负债表的收缩速度会比之前的复苏速度快得多。在资产负债表上，我预计与2017-2019年相比，最高限额将大大增加，缩债期限也将缩短。加息和削减资产负债表的综合影响，将使货币政策在今年晚些时候变得更加中性。在政策更加中立后，进一步紧缩的程度取决于通货膨胀和就业前景的变化。如果通胀和通胀预期指标表明有必要采取此类行动，美联储准备采取更有力的行动。目前通货膨胀率太高，容易受到上行风险的影响。我正在观察收益率曲线和其他数据，以了解经济活动下行风险增加的迹象。长期通胀预期仍在历史范围内。正在仔细监测从商品需求转向服务需求的程度，观察服务业能否在不引发通胀压力的情况下吸收这些需求。通货膨胀对低收入家庭的负担，即那些家庭成员较多或户主年龄较大的家庭，没有被计入官方消费价格指数。美联储可以在每次会议上调整政策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016676602,"gmtCreate":1649198491013,"gmtModify":1676534466151,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016676602","repostId":"1140517165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}