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Kangaroo2021

Kangaroo2021

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03-21

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Freaking Tiger is RIGGED

02-20

Worst budget measures of all time with total disregard & insensitivity to the nation's needs .... DISAPPOINTING CITIZEN!!!

Singaporeans Say Budget Fails to Ease Living Costs, Survey Finds

01-25

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Very DISAPPOINTING!!!

2023-09-18

Absolutely agreed 1000%

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-08-06

Bowman is talking crapshit

Fed's Bowman Says More US Rate Hikes Likely Will Be Needed

2023-06-14

Pure NONSENSE

Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come

2023-05-08

Get rid of Biden immediately and all problems solved !!!

U.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms

2023-05-02

Fed's handling is a total disaster

JPMorgan Chase Buys First Republic After FDIC Seizure: Is the Banking Crisis Over?

2023-04-30

Dumb Fed

Fed Seen Boosting Rates Even as Economic Risks Build

2023-04-01

Pure bullshit

SPY: The Recession Expected To Start Next Week

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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DISAPPOINTING CITIZEN!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/275922342248584","repostId":"1155990639","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155990639","pubTimestamp":1708399656,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155990639?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-20 11:27","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singaporeans Say Budget Fails to Ease Living Costs, Survey Finds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155990639","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enoughVouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impactThe spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government bu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enough</p></li><li><p>Vouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impact</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3046160046f73f2e9d6422b880a5692e\" alt=\"The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.\" title=\"The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"/><span>The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.</span></p><p>Six in 10 Singapore citizens and residents think that the government’s latest budget measures aren’t enough to help them cope with the rising cost of living, according to a new survey.</p><p>Only 35% of respondents polled by Milieu Insight said they were reassured by the social aid unveiled in the budget for the new fiscal year starting April, while 44% reported feeling neutral.</p><p>Singapore’s ruling party is giving handouts to ease angst over rising costs while navigating a path back to <u>fiscal prudence</u>. The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.</p><p>Of the measures announced by the government on Friday, the S$600 ($445) worth of vouchers that Singaporean households can use at groceries and hawker centers was by far considered to have the most significant impact by respondents to the Milieu poll.</p><p>The survey took place from February 17-19 and covered 1,002 respondents.</p><p>The budget was more conservative than expected, as the Finance Ministry looks to minimize the risks of overheating the economy, said Kai Wei Ang, an economist at Bank of America.</p><p>The budget address underlined “elevated concerns” about inflation and cost-of-living issues that are closely watched by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the analyst said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingaporeans Say Budget Fails to Ease Living Costs, Survey Finds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-20 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/singaporeans-say-budget-fails-to-ease-living-costs-survey-finds><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enoughVouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impactThe spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/singaporeans-say-budget-fails-to-ease-living-costs-survey-finds\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/singaporeans-say-budget-fails-to-ease-living-costs-survey-finds","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155990639","content_text":"Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enoughVouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impactThe spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.Six in 10 Singapore citizens and residents think that the government’s latest budget measures aren’t enough to help them cope with the rising cost of living, according to a new survey.Only 35% of respondents polled by Milieu Insight said they were reassured by the social aid unveiled in the budget for the new fiscal year starting April, while 44% reported feeling neutral.Singapore’s ruling party is giving handouts to ease angst over rising costs while navigating a path back to fiscal prudence. The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.Of the measures announced by the government on Friday, the S$600 ($445) worth of vouchers that Singaporean households can use at groceries and hawker centers was by far considered to have the most significant impact by respondents to the Milieu poll.The survey took place from February 17-19 and covered 1,002 respondents.The budget was more conservative than expected, as the Finance Ministry looks to minimize the risks of overheating the economy, said Kai Wei Ang, an economist at Bank of America.The budget address underlined “elevated concerns” about inflation and cost-of-living issues that are closely watched by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the analyst said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":266995437359184,"gmtCreate":1706194452516,"gmtModify":1706194455454,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Very DISAPPOINTING!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Very DISAPPOINTING!!!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Very DISAPPOINTING!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/266995437359184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":221163088937056,"gmtCreate":1695016291756,"gmtModify":1695016295885,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Absolutely agreed 1000%&nbsp;","listText":"Absolutely agreed 1000%&nbsp;","text":"Absolutely agreed 1000%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/221163088937056","repostId":"2367641801","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":206121596006424,"gmtCreate":1691336811882,"gmtModify":1691371777381,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bowman is talking crapshit&nbsp;","listText":"Bowman is talking crapshit&nbsp;","text":"Bowman is talking crapshit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/206121596006424","repostId":"2357148844","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2357148844","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1691294365,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2357148844?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-06 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Bowman Says More US Rate Hikes Likely Will Be Needed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2357148844","media":"Reuters","summary":"Aug 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.    Bowman said she supported the Fed's q","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.</p><p>Bowman said she supported the Fed&#39;s quarter-point increase in interest rates last month, given still-high inflation, strong consumer spending, a rebound in the housing market and a labor market that is helping to feed higher prices.</p><p>&#34;I also expect that additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC’s 2 percent target,&#34; she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association, referring to the Fed&#39;s rate-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee.</p><p>Monetary policy is not on a &#34;preset course,&#34; she also said, and data will drive future decisions.</p><p>&#34;We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.&#34;</p><p>Bowman has frequently expressed views that are more hawkish than some of her colleagues.</p><p>In forecasts published in June, most Fed policymakers expected to end the year with the Fed policy rate at 5.6%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter-point hike above the setting established at the Fed&#39;s late-July meeting.</p><p>Bowman&#39;s use of the plural &#34;rate increases&#34; in her remarks on Saturday indicates she thinks the Fed will need to go higher than that.</p><p>After the most recent rate hike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another increase in September, but also signaled that cooler data could allow a pause.</p><p>Bowman noted some progress on inflation, which by the widely followed consumer price index slowed to a 3% annual rate in June, down from 9% in the middle of last year.</p><p>&#34;The recent lower inflation reading was positive, but I will be looking for consistent evidence that inflation is on a meaningful path down toward our 2 percent goal as I consider further rate increases and how long the federal funds rate will need to remain at a restrictive level,&#34; she said.</p><p>&#34;I will also be watching for signs of slowing in consumer spending and signs that labor market conditions are loosening.&#34;</p><p>The Labor Department&#39;s monthly job market report on Friday showed hiring slowed in June, but unemployment, at 3.5%, remains slow, and Bowman noted there are still many more available jobs than there are workers to fill those jobs.</p><p>Banks also continue to increase lending to households and businesses, albeit at a slower pace than when interest rates were lower, with no sharp contraction of credit since the banking turmoil in March, she said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Bowman Says More US Rate Hikes Likely Will Be Needed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Bowman Says More US Rate Hikes Likely Will Be Needed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-06 11:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.</p><p>Bowman said she supported the Fed&#39;s quarter-point increase in interest rates last month, given still-high inflation, strong consumer spending, a rebound in the housing market and a labor market that is helping to feed higher prices.</p><p>&#34;I also expect that additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC’s 2 percent target,&#34; she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association, referring to the Fed&#39;s rate-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee.</p><p>Monetary policy is not on a &#34;preset course,&#34; she also said, and data will drive future decisions.</p><p>&#34;We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.&#34;</p><p>Bowman has frequently expressed views that are more hawkish than some of her colleagues.</p><p>In forecasts published in June, most Fed policymakers expected to end the year with the Fed policy rate at 5.6%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter-point hike above the setting established at the Fed&#39;s late-July meeting.</p><p>Bowman&#39;s use of the plural &#34;rate increases&#34; in her remarks on Saturday indicates she thinks the Fed will need to go higher than that.</p><p>After the most recent rate hike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another increase in September, but also signaled that cooler data could allow a pause.</p><p>Bowman noted some progress on inflation, which by the widely followed consumer price index slowed to a 3% annual rate in June, down from 9% in the middle of last year.</p><p>&#34;The recent lower inflation reading was positive, but I will be looking for consistent evidence that inflation is on a meaningful path down toward our 2 percent goal as I consider further rate increases and how long the federal funds rate will need to remain at a restrictive level,&#34; she said.</p><p>&#34;I will also be watching for signs of slowing in consumer spending and signs that labor market conditions are loosening.&#34;</p><p>The Labor Department&#39;s monthly job market report on Friday showed hiring slowed in June, but unemployment, at 3.5%, remains slow, and Bowman noted there are still many more available jobs than there are workers to fill those jobs.</p><p>Banks also continue to increase lending to households and businesses, albeit at a slower pace than when interest rates were lower, with no sharp contraction of credit since the banking turmoil in March, she said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2357148844","content_text":"(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.Bowman said she supported the Fed's quarter-point increase in interest rates last month, given still-high inflation, strong consumer spending, a rebound in the housing market and a labor market that is helping to feed higher prices.\"I also expect that additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC’s 2 percent target,\" she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association, referring to the Fed's rate-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee.Monetary policy is not on a \"preset course,\" she also said, and data will drive future decisions.\"We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.\"Bowman has frequently expressed views that are more hawkish than some of her colleagues.In forecasts published in June, most Fed policymakers expected to end the year with the Fed policy rate at 5.6%, one quarter-point hike above the setting established at the Fed's late-July meeting.Bowman's use of the plural \"rate increases\" in her remarks on Saturday indicates she thinks the Fed will need to go higher than that.After the most recent rate hike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another increase in September, but also signaled that cooler data could allow a pause.Bowman noted some progress on inflation, which by the widely followed consumer price index slowed to a 3% annual rate in June, down from 9% in the middle of last year.\"The recent lower inflation reading was positive, but I will be looking for consistent evidence that inflation is on a meaningful path down toward our 2 percent goal as I consider further rate increases and how long the federal funds rate will need to remain at a restrictive level,\" she said.\"I will also be watching for signs of slowing in consumer spending and signs that labor market conditions are loosening.\"The Labor Department's monthly job market report on Friday showed hiring slowed in June, but unemployment, at 3.5%, remains slow, and Bowman noted there are still many more available jobs than there are workers to fill those jobs.Banks also continue to increase lending to households and businesses, albeit at a slower pace than when interest rates were lower, with no sharp contraction of credit since the banking turmoil in March, she said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187131804438624,"gmtCreate":1686725751820,"gmtModify":1686725755817,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pure NONSENSE&nbsp;","listText":"Pure NONSENSE&nbsp;","text":"Pure NONSENSE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187131804438624","repostId":"2343567514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2343567514","pubTimestamp":1686704403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2343567514?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-14 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343567514","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Douglas Rissing The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.</p><p>This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2120bacd7ae744d7a9b26b91f6d1a51d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2>More Rate Hikes</h2><p>The market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.</p><p>The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.</p><p>Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It&#39;s important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538b5d9f6f2e8956f767d8f53d71b8c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This is why bond yields aren&#39;t coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14a0538cce121027cd003790fb61875\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763a5b0d5b2b8c255726b71f988c02aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810669f93ed838683f831e50269496db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p>CME Group</p><p>The addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc60fcb97695095105c1677befc4bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-14 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2343567514","content_text":"The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.BloombergMore Rate HikesThe market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It's important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.BloombergThis is why bond yields aren't coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.BloombergThe 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.BloombergThe other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.CME GroupThe addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.BloombergThe path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947452572,"gmtCreate":1683533144697,"gmtModify":1683534552068,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get rid of Biden immediately and all problems solved !!!","listText":"Get rid of Biden immediately and all problems solved !!!","text":"Get rid of Biden immediately and all problems solved !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947452572","repostId":"2333425404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2333425404","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1683528127,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2333425404?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-08 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2333425404","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to quell inflation and tighter credit conditions in the wake of regional bank sector stress, while others note that consumer spending and employment growth remains healthy, but the Federal Reserve&#39;s loan officer survey due this week may provide more clarity on which view is more accurate.</p><p>&#34;The last two rate hikes were nuts, to be blunt,&#34; said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a phone interview. The Fed &#34;could really cause a problem coming and going.&#34;</p><p>Concerns still swirl around the banking industry after the failure of Silicon Valley, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the past two months and the bond market is expressing the view that the Fed will have to cut interest rates as a result, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushing back on that notion on May 3, the day it announced a 10th straight increase in rates.</p><p>&#34;He did his utmost to convince market participants that the Fed is not going to be lowering interest rates, but will probably keep them where they are for a while,&#34; said Yardeni. &#34;The market&#39;s anticipating a hard landing.&#34;</p><p>But &#34;I&#39;m anticipating a soft landing that will allow the Fed to maintain the fed-funds rate&#34; at the current level possibly through the end of the year, said Yardeni. The federal-funds rate is now at a target range of 5% to 5.25%, after the central bank&#39;s rate hike of a quarter point on May 3.</p><p>&#34;If they just stop here,&#34; he said, &#34;all hope isn&#39;t lost.&#34;</p><p>Yardeni, who sees a 60% chance of a soft-landing scenario and a 40% probability of a hard landing, expects the stock market to be higher by year-end. In his view, October 12 marked the bear-market low for the S&amp;P 500 index, which he said could finish 2023 at 4,600. That&#39;s about 11% above Friday&#39;s close.</p><p>The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 closing at 4,136 for a year-to-date gain of 7.7%, according to FactSet data. But stocks were mostly down for the week, with the S&amp;P 500 falling 0.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite eking out a 0.1% weekly gain.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re cautious,&#34; said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, in a phone interview. &#34;We&#39;re moderately underweight equities.&#34;</p><p>Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500 will be &#34;pretty flat&#34; this year, estimating a fair value of 3,700 -- 4,000. He thinks the index may fall to the low end of that range amid worries over the U.S. debt-ceiling and the path of Fed policy, before moving back up to 4,000 at the end of 2023 &#34;if all goes fairly well.&#34;</p><p>According to Yardeni, the S&amp;P 500 will probably keep fluctuating around 4,000 through the summer, as the market needs &#34;to get a better handle on what the Fed is going to be doing for the rest of the year&#34; and the debt-ceiling debate has to be resolved before the fast-approaching deadline</p><p>The Fed has indicated for a while it wants to bring rates to a restrictive level and keep them there, he said. &#34;I think the banking crisis confirms that they got there.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed&#39;s senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices will be released on Monday. &#34;It&#39;s hard to imagine that it shows anything but credit conditions continuing to tighten,&#34; said Yardeni. &#34;It will certainly include responses reflecting the banking crisis.&#34;</p><p>Bianco said he&#39;s been keeping an eye on the availability and cost of credit as well as &#34;how it affects the willingness of businesses to invest.&#34;</p><h3>Economy-wide recession?</h3><p>The bond market seems to be counting on a recession of at least average magnitude taking care of the U.S. inflation problem, as yields have slid recently despite the Fed hiking rates, according to Bianco.</p><p>The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 14.4 basis points this past week to 3.920%, its largest weekly decline since the stretch ending March 17 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On March 12, the Fed announced an emergency program to help banks meet the needs of their depositors after Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s sudden collapse.</p><p>Ten-year Treasury yields dipped almost one basis point this past week to 3.445%, declining along with two-year yields for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>In Bianco&#39;s view, the Fed won&#39;t cut rates unless there&#39;s a &#34;significant, unmistakable recession of greater-than-average magnitude with rapid deterioration in the labor force.&#34; He described an average U.S. recession as having a 2% peak-to-trough contraction in gross domestic product over about a year.</p><p>Bianco is expecting a &#34;shallow&#34; recession to begin some time in 2023. &#34;To me, the most constructive outlook is the Fed not having to do anything for the rest of the year,&#34; he said. Rate cuts by year-end would not come with &#34;risk-friendly conditions,&#34; warned Bianco. &#34;If that occurs, get out of the way.&#34;</p><h3>Rolling recession?</h3><p>There&#39;s &#34;a great deal of pessimism out there&#34; about the U.S. economic outlook, according to Yardeni, who said he tends to be more &#34;optimistic.&#34;</p><p>He thinks the U.S. has been in &#34;a rolling recession, where different industries have been hit at different times by recessionary pressures,&#34; as opposed to an economy-wide contraction that many investors are fearing this year.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve been kind of rolling through one, without the kind of dire consequences that an economy-wide recession would have,&#34; said Yardeni.</p><p>For example, the rolling recession hit the single-family housing market last year as the Fed began raising rates, but multi-family housing remained &#34;quite strong,&#34; he said. Then retailers saw a recession after being stuck with inventory following consumers&#39; &#34;buying binge&#34; for goods during the pandemic before shifting their spending to services.</p><p>&#34;The labor market remains strong because the service economy has done really well,&#34; he said.</p><p>The unemployment rate in the U.S. remains historically low, dipping to 3.4% in April, according to a report Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, while wages rose.</p><p>Investors will get a reading on April inflation next week, with data from the consumer-price index due out on Wednesday. The previous monthly measure from the consumer-price index showed that inflation in March was sticky.</p><p>&#34;Sure, we&#39;re off the highs, but it&#39;s still too high for too long,&#34; said Bianco.</p><h3>Fed&#39;s &#39;credibility issue&#39;</h3><p>Yardeni sees the Fed having &#34;this credibility issue that they&#39;re obsessed about&#34; after taking too long to raise rates to fight inflation. It was &#34;an embarrassment to them that they let the inflation genie out of the bottle without responding faster,&#34; he said. &#34;Now I think they want to be tough,&#34; said Yardeni, so &#34;they&#39;re going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, fed-funds futures and the yield on the two-year Treasury note are &#34;screaming that interest rates are going to be heading down over the next year,&#34; said Yardeni. On Friday, traders in fed-funds futures were largely expecting the Fed to pause its interest-rate hikes at its June policy meeting, while betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p><p>&#34;Financial stability concerns are going to be an issue at some point, and there is going to be some sort of tightening in credit conditions and standards,&#34; said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasurys and TIPS at Vanguard Group in a phone interview. He expects &#34;the Fed is close to the end&#34; of its rate hiking cycle.</p><h3>&#39;Powell&#39;s Plateau&#39;</h3><p>Yardeni says his estimation of a 40% chance of a hard landing acknowledges he has perceived the Fed could break something in the financial system with its aggressive rate increases. The regional-bank failures in mid-March and the start of May seem signs of the Fed having finally broken something, but the central bank continued raising rates later that month and again this past week to fight inflation.</p><p>The Fed has done &#34;a pretty good job&#34; containing the banking crisis, partly through its emergency bank term funding program created in mid-March, Yardeni said. He expects the central bank will now pause its rate hikes but might not have to cut them this year as an economy-wide recession may not be imminent.</p><p>&#34;They&#39;re going to try and achieve Powell&#39;s plateau,&#34; potentially keeping the Fed&#39;s benchmark rate at the current level for a while, he said. &#34;I think that overtime, that will, in fact, help to bring inflation down without causing a recession.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-08 14:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to quell inflation and tighter credit conditions in the wake of regional bank sector stress, while others note that consumer spending and employment growth remains healthy, but the Federal Reserve&#39;s loan officer survey due this week may provide more clarity on which view is more accurate.</p><p>&#34;The last two rate hikes were nuts, to be blunt,&#34; said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a phone interview. The Fed &#34;could really cause a problem coming and going.&#34;</p><p>Concerns still swirl around the banking industry after the failure of Silicon Valley, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the past two months and the bond market is expressing the view that the Fed will have to cut interest rates as a result, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushing back on that notion on May 3, the day it announced a 10th straight increase in rates.</p><p>&#34;He did his utmost to convince market participants that the Fed is not going to be lowering interest rates, but will probably keep them where they are for a while,&#34; said Yardeni. &#34;The market&#39;s anticipating a hard landing.&#34;</p><p>But &#34;I&#39;m anticipating a soft landing that will allow the Fed to maintain the fed-funds rate&#34; at the current level possibly through the end of the year, said Yardeni. The federal-funds rate is now at a target range of 5% to 5.25%, after the central bank&#39;s rate hike of a quarter point on May 3.</p><p>&#34;If they just stop here,&#34; he said, &#34;all hope isn&#39;t lost.&#34;</p><p>Yardeni, who sees a 60% chance of a soft-landing scenario and a 40% probability of a hard landing, expects the stock market to be higher by year-end. In his view, October 12 marked the bear-market low for the S&amp;P 500 index, which he said could finish 2023 at 4,600. That&#39;s about 11% above Friday&#39;s close.</p><p>The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 closing at 4,136 for a year-to-date gain of 7.7%, according to FactSet data. But stocks were mostly down for the week, with the S&amp;P 500 falling 0.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite eking out a 0.1% weekly gain.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re cautious,&#34; said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, in a phone interview. &#34;We&#39;re moderately underweight equities.&#34;</p><p>Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500 will be &#34;pretty flat&#34; this year, estimating a fair value of 3,700 -- 4,000. He thinks the index may fall to the low end of that range amid worries over the U.S. debt-ceiling and the path of Fed policy, before moving back up to 4,000 at the end of 2023 &#34;if all goes fairly well.&#34;</p><p>According to Yardeni, the S&amp;P 500 will probably keep fluctuating around 4,000 through the summer, as the market needs &#34;to get a better handle on what the Fed is going to be doing for the rest of the year&#34; and the debt-ceiling debate has to be resolved before the fast-approaching deadline</p><p>The Fed has indicated for a while it wants to bring rates to a restrictive level and keep them there, he said. &#34;I think the banking crisis confirms that they got there.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed&#39;s senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices will be released on Monday. &#34;It&#39;s hard to imagine that it shows anything but credit conditions continuing to tighten,&#34; said Yardeni. &#34;It will certainly include responses reflecting the banking crisis.&#34;</p><p>Bianco said he&#39;s been keeping an eye on the availability and cost of credit as well as &#34;how it affects the willingness of businesses to invest.&#34;</p><h3>Economy-wide recession?</h3><p>The bond market seems to be counting on a recession of at least average magnitude taking care of the U.S. inflation problem, as yields have slid recently despite the Fed hiking rates, according to Bianco.</p><p>The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 14.4 basis points this past week to 3.920%, its largest weekly decline since the stretch ending March 17 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On March 12, the Fed announced an emergency program to help banks meet the needs of their depositors after Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s sudden collapse.</p><p>Ten-year Treasury yields dipped almost one basis point this past week to 3.445%, declining along with two-year yields for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>In Bianco&#39;s view, the Fed won&#39;t cut rates unless there&#39;s a &#34;significant, unmistakable recession of greater-than-average magnitude with rapid deterioration in the labor force.&#34; He described an average U.S. recession as having a 2% peak-to-trough contraction in gross domestic product over about a year.</p><p>Bianco is expecting a &#34;shallow&#34; recession to begin some time in 2023. &#34;To me, the most constructive outlook is the Fed not having to do anything for the rest of the year,&#34; he said. Rate cuts by year-end would not come with &#34;risk-friendly conditions,&#34; warned Bianco. &#34;If that occurs, get out of the way.&#34;</p><h3>Rolling recession?</h3><p>There&#39;s &#34;a great deal of pessimism out there&#34; about the U.S. economic outlook, according to Yardeni, who said he tends to be more &#34;optimistic.&#34;</p><p>He thinks the U.S. has been in &#34;a rolling recession, where different industries have been hit at different times by recessionary pressures,&#34; as opposed to an economy-wide contraction that many investors are fearing this year.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve been kind of rolling through one, without the kind of dire consequences that an economy-wide recession would have,&#34; said Yardeni.</p><p>For example, the rolling recession hit the single-family housing market last year as the Fed began raising rates, but multi-family housing remained &#34;quite strong,&#34; he said. Then retailers saw a recession after being stuck with inventory following consumers&#39; &#34;buying binge&#34; for goods during the pandemic before shifting their spending to services.</p><p>&#34;The labor market remains strong because the service economy has done really well,&#34; he said.</p><p>The unemployment rate in the U.S. remains historically low, dipping to 3.4% in April, according to a report Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, while wages rose.</p><p>Investors will get a reading on April inflation next week, with data from the consumer-price index due out on Wednesday. The previous monthly measure from the consumer-price index showed that inflation in March was sticky.</p><p>&#34;Sure, we&#39;re off the highs, but it&#39;s still too high for too long,&#34; said Bianco.</p><h3>Fed&#39;s &#39;credibility issue&#39;</h3><p>Yardeni sees the Fed having &#34;this credibility issue that they&#39;re obsessed about&#34; after taking too long to raise rates to fight inflation. It was &#34;an embarrassment to them that they let the inflation genie out of the bottle without responding faster,&#34; he said. &#34;Now I think they want to be tough,&#34; said Yardeni, so &#34;they&#39;re going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, fed-funds futures and the yield on the two-year Treasury note are &#34;screaming that interest rates are going to be heading down over the next year,&#34; said Yardeni. On Friday, traders in fed-funds futures were largely expecting the Fed to pause its interest-rate hikes at its June policy meeting, while betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p><p>&#34;Financial stability concerns are going to be an issue at some point, and there is going to be some sort of tightening in credit conditions and standards,&#34; said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasurys and TIPS at Vanguard Group in a phone interview. He expects &#34;the Fed is close to the end&#34; of its rate hiking cycle.</p><h3>&#39;Powell&#39;s Plateau&#39;</h3><p>Yardeni says his estimation of a 40% chance of a hard landing acknowledges he has perceived the Fed could break something in the financial system with its aggressive rate increases. The regional-bank failures in mid-March and the start of May seem signs of the Fed having finally broken something, but the central bank continued raising rates later that month and again this past week to fight inflation.</p><p>The Fed has done &#34;a pretty good job&#34; containing the banking crisis, partly through its emergency bank term funding program created in mid-March, Yardeni said. He expects the central bank will now pause its rate hikes but might not have to cut them this year as an economy-wide recession may not be imminent.</p><p>&#34;They&#39;re going to try and achieve Powell&#39;s plateau,&#34; potentially keeping the Fed&#39;s benchmark rate at the current level for a while, he said. &#34;I think that overtime, that will, in fact, help to bring inflation down without causing a recession.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2333425404","content_text":"Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to quell inflation and tighter credit conditions in the wake of regional bank sector stress, while others note that consumer spending and employment growth remains healthy, but the Federal Reserve's loan officer survey due this week may provide more clarity on which view is more accurate.\"The last two rate hikes were nuts, to be blunt,\" said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a phone interview. The Fed \"could really cause a problem coming and going.\"Concerns still swirl around the banking industry after the failure of Silicon Valley, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the past two months and the bond market is expressing the view that the Fed will have to cut interest rates as a result, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushing back on that notion on May 3, the day it announced a 10th straight increase in rates.\"He did his utmost to convince market participants that the Fed is not going to be lowering interest rates, but will probably keep them where they are for a while,\" said Yardeni. \"The market's anticipating a hard landing.\"But \"I'm anticipating a soft landing that will allow the Fed to maintain the fed-funds rate\" at the current level possibly through the end of the year, said Yardeni. The federal-funds rate is now at a target range of 5% to 5.25%, after the central bank's rate hike of a quarter point on May 3.\"If they just stop here,\" he said, \"all hope isn't lost.\"Yardeni, who sees a 60% chance of a soft-landing scenario and a 40% probability of a hard landing, expects the stock market to be higher by year-end. In his view, October 12 marked the bear-market low for the S&P 500 index, which he said could finish 2023 at 4,600. That's about 11% above Friday's close.The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at 4,136 for a year-to-date gain of 7.7%, according to FactSet data. But stocks were mostly down for the week, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite eking out a 0.1% weekly gain.\"We're cautious,\" said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, in a phone interview. \"We're moderately underweight equities.\"Bianco expects the S&P 500 will be \"pretty flat\" this year, estimating a fair value of 3,700 -- 4,000. He thinks the index may fall to the low end of that range amid worries over the U.S. debt-ceiling and the path of Fed policy, before moving back up to 4,000 at the end of 2023 \"if all goes fairly well.\"According to Yardeni, the S&P 500 will probably keep fluctuating around 4,000 through the summer, as the market needs \"to get a better handle on what the Fed is going to be doing for the rest of the year\" and the debt-ceiling debate has to be resolved before the fast-approaching deadlineThe Fed has indicated for a while it wants to bring rates to a restrictive level and keep them there, he said. \"I think the banking crisis confirms that they got there.\"Meanwhile, the Fed's senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices will be released on Monday. \"It's hard to imagine that it shows anything but credit conditions continuing to tighten,\" said Yardeni. \"It will certainly include responses reflecting the banking crisis.\"Bianco said he's been keeping an eye on the availability and cost of credit as well as \"how it affects the willingness of businesses to invest.\"Economy-wide recession?The bond market seems to be counting on a recession of at least average magnitude taking care of the U.S. inflation problem, as yields have slid recently despite the Fed hiking rates, according to Bianco.The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 14.4 basis points this past week to 3.920%, its largest weekly decline since the stretch ending March 17 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On March 12, the Fed announced an emergency program to help banks meet the needs of their depositors after Silicon Valley Bank's sudden collapse.Ten-year Treasury yields dipped almost one basis point this past week to 3.445%, declining along with two-year yields for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.In Bianco's view, the Fed won't cut rates unless there's a \"significant, unmistakable recession of greater-than-average magnitude with rapid deterioration in the labor force.\" He described an average U.S. recession as having a 2% peak-to-trough contraction in gross domestic product over about a year.Bianco is expecting a \"shallow\" recession to begin some time in 2023. \"To me, the most constructive outlook is the Fed not having to do anything for the rest of the year,\" he said. Rate cuts by year-end would not come with \"risk-friendly conditions,\" warned Bianco. \"If that occurs, get out of the way.\"Rolling recession?There's \"a great deal of pessimism out there\" about the U.S. economic outlook, according to Yardeni, who said he tends to be more \"optimistic.\"He thinks the U.S. has been in \"a rolling recession, where different industries have been hit at different times by recessionary pressures,\" as opposed to an economy-wide contraction that many investors are fearing this year.\"We've been kind of rolling through one, without the kind of dire consequences that an economy-wide recession would have,\" said Yardeni.For example, the rolling recession hit the single-family housing market last year as the Fed began raising rates, but multi-family housing remained \"quite strong,\" he said. Then retailers saw a recession after being stuck with inventory following consumers' \"buying binge\" for goods during the pandemic before shifting their spending to services.\"The labor market remains strong because the service economy has done really well,\" he said.The unemployment rate in the U.S. remains historically low, dipping to 3.4% in April, according to a report Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, while wages rose.Investors will get a reading on April inflation next week, with data from the consumer-price index due out on Wednesday. The previous monthly measure from the consumer-price index showed that inflation in March was sticky.\"Sure, we're off the highs, but it's still too high for too long,\" said Bianco.Fed's 'credibility issue'Yardeni sees the Fed having \"this credibility issue that they're obsessed about\" after taking too long to raise rates to fight inflation. It was \"an embarrassment to them that they let the inflation genie out of the bottle without responding faster,\" he said. \"Now I think they want to be tough,\" said Yardeni, so \"they're going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down.\"Meanwhile, fed-funds futures and the yield on the two-year Treasury note are \"screaming that interest rates are going to be heading down over the next year,\" said Yardeni. On Friday, traders in fed-funds futures were largely expecting the Fed to pause its interest-rate hikes at its June policy meeting, while betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"Financial stability concerns are going to be an issue at some point, and there is going to be some sort of tightening in credit conditions and standards,\" said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasurys and TIPS at Vanguard Group in a phone interview. He expects \"the Fed is close to the end\" of its rate hiking cycle.'Powell's Plateau'Yardeni says his estimation of a 40% chance of a hard landing acknowledges he has perceived the Fed could break something in the financial system with its aggressive rate increases. The regional-bank failures in mid-March and the start of May seem signs of the Fed having finally broken something, but the central bank continued raising rates later that month and again this past week to fight inflation.The Fed has done \"a pretty good job\" containing the banking crisis, partly through its emergency bank term funding program created in mid-March, Yardeni said. He expects the central bank will now pause its rate hikes but might not have to cut them this year as an economy-wide recession may not be imminent.\"They're going to try and achieve Powell's plateau,\" potentially keeping the Fed's benchmark rate at the current level for a while, he said. \"I think that overtime, that will, in fact, help to bring inflation down without causing a recession.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947608916,"gmtCreate":1683007095336,"gmtModify":1683009145117,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fed's handling is a total disaster&nbsp;","listText":"Fed's handling is a total disaster&nbsp;","text":"Fed's handling is a total disaster","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947608916","repostId":"2332671317","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2332671317","pubTimestamp":1682999653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2332671317?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-02 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Chase Buys First Republic After FDIC Seizure: Is the Banking Crisis Over?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332671317","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: \"Everyone should just take a deep breath.\"","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The saga of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> came to a close over the weekend, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took over the San Francisco-based financial institution. The regulatory agency then entered into an agreement with the banking subsidiary of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase </a> under which the Wall Street giant will assume all of First Republic&#39;s deposits and substantially all of the embattled bank&#39;s assets.</p><p>The move is the latest in a series of bank failures this year, and it once again raised concerns about the stability of the financial system more broadly. But the news was good for depositors of First Republic, and JPMorgan&#39;s stock was up Monday morning.</p><h2>How did the deal get done?</h2><p>The FDIC held a snap auction, soliciting competitive bids from several different financial institutions. Various reports named banks including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC Financial, Citizens Financial</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">U.S. Bancorp</a>, and Bank of America as possibly having received invitations from the FDIC to request bids for First Republic, although those banks generally chose not to comment on those reports.</p><p>In the end, JPMorgan agreed to acquire $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities, taking on responsibility for $92 billion in deposits and $28 billion in Federal Home Loan Bank advances. JPMorgan will pay $10.6 billion to the FDIC, but it did not assume First Republic&#39;s corporate debt or preferred stock obligations.</p><p>In addition, the FDIC agreed to enter into a loss-share transaction with JPMorgan under which the agency will provide 80% loss coverage for seven years on mortgage loans and five years on commercial loans. The two entities will share in losses and potential recoveries on the loans covered under the agreement. The FDIC believes that by keeping those bank assets in the private sector rather than bringing them into the public auction process, it and JPMorgan will get the most in recoveries over the long run. Moreover, the arrangement will be less disruptive for loan customers, many of whom may avoid seeing changes or efforts to renegotiate terms.</p><p>The FDIC estimates there will be a $13 billion cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund, which is paid for mostly by financial institutions and contains no taxpayer money.</p><h2>What the FDIC-JPMorgan deal means for bank customers</h2><p>For current First Republic customers, the FDIC&#39;s arrangement with JPMorgan ensures an orderly continuation of business. The 84 branch offices that First Republic has in eight different states will reopen Monday as new branches of JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>Accountholders will have full access to their deposits with no delays, and those deposits will remain insured by the FDIC. Customers won&#39;t have to do anything to retain deposit insurance up to applicable limits. As for those who worked at First Republic, JPMorgan said that it was &#34;committed to treating  employees with respect, care and transparency.&#34;</p><h2>Why JPMorgan stock is climbing</h2><p>For JPMorgan Chase, the move was a win, and the stock climbed 2.5% when trading opened Monday. As the bank sees it, it will get an internal rate of return of more than 20% on the deal while maintaining capital ratios at strong levels. JPMorgan expects a better than $500 million accretion to net income and believes that the transaction will boost its tangible book value per share.</p><p>Strategically, the move also favors JPMorgan&#39;s business. First Republic concentrated on high-net-worth clients who should be interested in JPMorgan&#39;s growing wealth management business. Branch locations on the West Coast will also add to JPMorgan&#39;s physical footprint, supporting further expansion.</p><h2>So is the banking crisis over?</h2><p>For JPMorgan&#39;s part, CEO Jamie Dimon already said early in April that he believed  the banking crisis was nearing an end. He didn&#39;t foreclose the possibility of further individual bank failures, but as long as none of the problems with any given bank led to a domino effect of contagion with other financial institutions, Dimon believed that such failures could be orderly and not affect the safety of the banking system as a whole.</p><p>In Monday morning&#39;s conference call on the deal, Dimon reiterated that sentiment: &#34;No crystal ball is perfect, but yes, I think the banking system is very stable. ... This part of the crisis is over. That does not -- down the road, there are rates going way up, real estate, recession, that&#39;s a whole different issue. But for now, everyone should just take a deep breath.&#34;</p><p>What is certain is that scrutiny of regional banks has never been higher, and many banking officials across the industry expect that the failure of First Republic and other banks will result in greater regulation. That could eventually have implications for investors, but they would be less dramatic than the abrupt collapses we&#39;ve seen recently.</p><p>Bank investors can expect to keep hearing news about various regional banks and their exposure to bond losses and potential deposit outflows for a while. As all the skeletons in the closet get discovered, though, the chances of an all-out crisis should diminish.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase Buys First Republic After FDIC Seizure: Is the Banking Crisis Over?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase Buys First Republic After FDIC Seizure: Is the Banking Crisis Over?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-02 11:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/01/jpmorgan-buys-first-republic-banking-crisis-over/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The saga of First Republic Bank came to a close over the weekend, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took over the San Francisco-based financial institution. The regulatory agency ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/01/jpmorgan-buys-first-republic-banking-crisis-over/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","JPM":"摩根大通","FRCB":"第一共和银行","BK4207":"综合性银行","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/01/jpmorgan-buys-first-republic-banking-crisis-over/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2332671317","content_text":"The saga of First Republic Bank came to a close over the weekend, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took over the San Francisco-based financial institution. The regulatory agency then entered into an agreement with the banking subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase  under which the Wall Street giant will assume all of First Republic's deposits and substantially all of the embattled bank's assets.The move is the latest in a series of bank failures this year, and it once again raised concerns about the stability of the financial system more broadly. But the news was good for depositors of First Republic, and JPMorgan's stock was up Monday morning.How did the deal get done?The FDIC held a snap auction, soliciting competitive bids from several different financial institutions. Various reports named banks including PNC Financial, Citizens Financial, U.S. Bancorp, and Bank of America as possibly having received invitations from the FDIC to request bids for First Republic, although those banks generally chose not to comment on those reports.In the end, JPMorgan agreed to acquire $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities, taking on responsibility for $92 billion in deposits and $28 billion in Federal Home Loan Bank advances. JPMorgan will pay $10.6 billion to the FDIC, but it did not assume First Republic's corporate debt or preferred stock obligations.In addition, the FDIC agreed to enter into a loss-share transaction with JPMorgan under which the agency will provide 80% loss coverage for seven years on mortgage loans and five years on commercial loans. The two entities will share in losses and potential recoveries on the loans covered under the agreement. The FDIC believes that by keeping those bank assets in the private sector rather than bringing them into the public auction process, it and JPMorgan will get the most in recoveries over the long run. Moreover, the arrangement will be less disruptive for loan customers, many of whom may avoid seeing changes or efforts to renegotiate terms.The FDIC estimates there will be a $13 billion cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund, which is paid for mostly by financial institutions and contains no taxpayer money.What the FDIC-JPMorgan deal means for bank customersFor current First Republic customers, the FDIC's arrangement with JPMorgan ensures an orderly continuation of business. The 84 branch offices that First Republic has in eight different states will reopen Monday as new branches of JPMorgan Chase.Accountholders will have full access to their deposits with no delays, and those deposits will remain insured by the FDIC. Customers won't have to do anything to retain deposit insurance up to applicable limits. As for those who worked at First Republic, JPMorgan said that it was \"committed to treating  employees with respect, care and transparency.\"Why JPMorgan stock is climbingFor JPMorgan Chase, the move was a win, and the stock climbed 2.5% when trading opened Monday. As the bank sees it, it will get an internal rate of return of more than 20% on the deal while maintaining capital ratios at strong levels. JPMorgan expects a better than $500 million accretion to net income and believes that the transaction will boost its tangible book value per share.Strategically, the move also favors JPMorgan's business. First Republic concentrated on high-net-worth clients who should be interested in JPMorgan's growing wealth management business. Branch locations on the West Coast will also add to JPMorgan's physical footprint, supporting further expansion.So is the banking crisis over?For JPMorgan's part, CEO Jamie Dimon already said early in April that he believed  the banking crisis was nearing an end. He didn't foreclose the possibility of further individual bank failures, but as long as none of the problems with any given bank led to a domino effect of contagion with other financial institutions, Dimon believed that such failures could be orderly and not affect the safety of the banking system as a whole.In Monday morning's conference call on the deal, Dimon reiterated that sentiment: \"No crystal ball is perfect, but yes, I think the banking system is very stable. ... This part of the crisis is over. That does not -- down the road, there are rates going way up, real estate, recession, that's a whole different issue. But for now, everyone should just take a deep breath.\"What is certain is that scrutiny of regional banks has never been higher, and many banking officials across the industry expect that the failure of First Republic and other banks will result in greater regulation. That could eventually have implications for investors, but they would be less dramatic than the abrupt collapses we've seen recently.Bank investors can expect to keep hearing news about various regional banks and their exposure to bond losses and potential deposit outflows for a while. As all the skeletons in the closet get discovered, though, the chances of an all-out crisis should diminish.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947819245,"gmtCreate":1682867126888,"gmtModify":1682901703303,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dumb Fed&nbsp;","listText":"Dumb Fed&nbsp;","text":"Dumb Fed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947819245","repostId":"1126070801","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126070801","pubTimestamp":1682816101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126070801?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-30 08:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Seen Boosting Rates Even as Economic Risks Build","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126070801","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Quarter-point hike and healthy jobs report anticipatedECB and Norway may also raise rates while Braz","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Quarter-point hike and healthy jobs report anticipated</p></li><li><p>ECB and Norway may also raise rates while Brazil stays on hold</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa566032cb3244338f405b9197d9146\" alt=\"Shoppers wait in line to checkout inside a grocery store in San Francisco, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg\" title=\"Shoppers wait in line to checkout inside a grocery store in San Francisco, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"661\"/><span>Shoppers wait in line to checkout inside a grocery store in San Francisco, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve policymakers are about to extend their year-long campaign of raising interest rates to beat back still-stubborn inflation, even as risks to the US economy build.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to boost the benchmark lending rate target by another quarter percentage point on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive increase going back to March of last year. While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the same time, first-quarter growth figures this past week pointed to an economy that’s downshifting. The monthly jobs report on Friday will give a sense of how labor demand — a key support for the economy — is holding up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9f9a615b3e05114082aba9037cda84\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"525\"/></p><p>The projected 180,000 increase in April payrolls is seen as healthy, although it would mark the third straight month of decelerating employment growth. The still-firm labor market has been instrumental in extending an economic expansion that’s increasingly feeling the pinch from tighter Fed policy.</p><p>Other data on the schedule include March job openings and April surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services.</p><blockquote><strong>What Bloomberg Economics Says:</strong></blockquote><blockquote>“Signs point to the FOMC raising rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% in the May 3 decision — despite ongoing turmoil in the banking system — and signaling that this will be the last hike for a while. The next phase of the tightening cycle will be to hold rates at that elevated level, while watching to see if inflation trends down.”—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger and Jonathan Church, economists. For full analysis</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Elsewhere, rate increases in the euro zone and Norway and a pause in Brazil will be among other key monetary decisions due around the world.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba6ba17da6bfc29a367130aaec6a877\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><h3 style=\"text-align: start;\">Europe, Middle East, Africa</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The region faces an eventful week, albeit a shorter one in many countries following a long holiday weekend. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The ECB takes center stage on Thursday with a rate decision in the wake of the Fed the previous evening. Investors and economists anticipate a quarter-point hike, dialing down the pace of tightening as the central bank’s earlier moves impact the economy with a lag and lingering financial-stability worries dictate caution. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3d074e440ff7bd08c4096bae00ef2b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"604\"/></p><p>Critical to the decision will be the ECB’s latest bank-lending survey, due on Tuesday, and inflation data published the same day. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer-price figures are anticipated by economists to show conflicting signals: the headline measure could accelerate for the first time in half a year, while an underlying index stripping out volatile items such as energy may show slowing. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s that latter gauge that ECB officials are watching — and if the report were to show so-called core inflation unexpectedly quickening, a bigger rate move could yet transpire.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a065df96b97a8e388e17fa01b2b89148\" alt=\"Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg surveys of economists\" title=\"Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg surveys of economists\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"532\"/><span>Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg surveys of economists</span></p><p>Other monetary policy decisions are also due from across the region:</p><ul><li><p>Danish policy makers normally follow any ECB rate move with a similar one of their own. Any hike is likely to transpire in the hours after the outcome in Frankfurt on Thursday.</p></li><li><p>Earlier that day, Norway’s central bank may raise borrowing costs by a quarter point, keeping up pressure on inflation just as the economy proves more resilient than expected.</p></li><li><p>The Czech central bank on Wednesday is expected to leave rates unchanged despite increasingly hawkish rhetoric from its board members.</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s a quieter week in the UK, where officials will enter a blackout period before their decision on May 11. Among data due there are shop prices from the British Retail Consortium, Nationwide house prices, and the Bank of England’s mortgage approval and consumer-credit data.</p><p>Figures on Wednesday will probably show that fourth-quarter economic growth in Kenya slowed to 4% from 4.7% in the prior three months. That’s as unfavorable weather conditions, higher input costs, foreign-currency shortages, rising interest rates and government spending cuts curtailed output growth. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Turkish inflation is expected to remain high in data due Wednesday but price gains are anticipated to cool, with the Treasury Minister saying they’ll dip below 50%. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On Friday, Turkey’s trade balance may take another hit from a surge in energy and gold imports. Data for the country are being closely watched ahead of close-run elections on May 14.</p><h3 style=\"text-align: start;\">Asia</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">China’s latest PMI figures on Sunday are expected to show a continued recovery in activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors as the impact of earlier Covid lockdowns recede, though at a slower pace of expansion. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">What are likely to be largely encouraging signs for the global economy from China may contrast with South Korean trade figures out Monday that are forecast to show a gloomier outlook. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f25ab8617618fcd6d407ed9933ad0080\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\"/></p><p>Inflation figures Tuesday should hint at whether the Bank of Korea’s decision to keep rates on hold is supported by cooling price growth. Regional PMIs the same day will fill out the picture for Asia’s current economic momentum. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Finance ministers and central bank governors are set to gather for the annual Asian Development Bank meeting in South Korea, with climate financing measures among the matters under discussion. Senior officials from both Japan and South Korea are expected to attend. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ecd6fec4c10fd631b6731dd0c5e5a5\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"/></p><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged again as inflationary pressure Down Under continues to edge down from elevated levels. </p><p>Malaysia’s central bank is also seen standing pat on Wednesday. Indonesia, Thailand and Taiwan are all due to release price data during the week.</p><h3 style=\"text-align: start;\">Latin America</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The week kicks off with the April consumer price report for Peru’s capital, Lima, which likely slowed for a third month from 8.4% in March. Central bank chief Julio Velarde sees inflation hitting 3% by year-end.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c38f985e3320e29ae46234ce0e8bd08\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"546\"/></p><p>The bottom line of this week’s Brazilian central bank rate decision is a given — the key rate will be kept unchanged at 13.75% for a sixth straight meeting.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Any drama will come from the post-decision communique: Brazil watchers will be on the lookout for shifts to a standing warning that the bank won’t hesitate to lift rates to counter resurgent inflation.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In Colombia, publication of the central bank’s monetary policy report and minutes of its recent meeting may take a back seat to the April 26 ouster of finance chief Jose Antonio Ocampo by President Gustavo Petro, and subsequent tumble by the nation’s assets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbb766624337ca2b81cd4c670fff6ff\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"616\"/></p><p>The week may, however, end on a propitious note. Data out of Colombia on Friday may show inflation slowed for the first time in 11 months from March’s 13.34%, perhaps even below 13%. With that, inflation in all five of Latin America’s big targeting economies would be falling simultaneously once again for the first time since April 2020.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Seen Boosting Rates Even as Economic Risks Build</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Seen Boosting Rates Even as Economic Risks Build\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-30 08:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-29/fed-rates-latest-us-central-bank-seen-hiking-even-as-economic-risks-build?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Quarter-point hike and healthy jobs report anticipatedECB and Norway may also raise rates while Brazil stays on holdShoppers wait in line to checkout inside a grocery store in San Francisco, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-29/fed-rates-latest-us-central-bank-seen-hiking-even-as-economic-risks-build?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-29/fed-rates-latest-us-central-bank-seen-hiking-even-as-economic-risks-build?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126070801","content_text":"Quarter-point hike and healthy jobs report anticipatedECB and Norway may also raise rates while Brazil stays on holdShoppers wait in line to checkout inside a grocery store in San Francisco, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergFederal Reserve policymakers are about to extend their year-long campaign of raising interest rates to beat back still-stubborn inflation, even as risks to the US economy build.The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to boost the benchmark lending rate target by another quarter percentage point on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive increase going back to March of last year. While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal.At the same time, first-quarter growth figures this past week pointed to an economy that’s downshifting. The monthly jobs report on Friday will give a sense of how labor demand — a key support for the economy — is holding up.The projected 180,000 increase in April payrolls is seen as healthy, although it would mark the third straight month of decelerating employment growth. The still-firm labor market has been instrumental in extending an economic expansion that’s increasingly feeling the pinch from tighter Fed policy.Other data on the schedule include March job openings and April surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Signs point to the FOMC raising rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% in the May 3 decision — despite ongoing turmoil in the banking system — and signaling that this will be the last hike for a while. The next phase of the tightening cycle will be to hold rates at that elevated level, while watching to see if inflation trends down.”—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger and Jonathan Church, economists. For full analysisElsewhere, rate increases in the euro zone and Norway and a pause in Brazil will be among other key monetary decisions due around the world.Europe, Middle East, AfricaThe region faces an eventful week, albeit a shorter one in many countries following a long holiday weekend. The ECB takes center stage on Thursday with a rate decision in the wake of the Fed the previous evening. Investors and economists anticipate a quarter-point hike, dialing down the pace of tightening as the central bank’s earlier moves impact the economy with a lag and lingering financial-stability worries dictate caution. Critical to the decision will be the ECB’s latest bank-lending survey, due on Tuesday, and inflation data published the same day. The consumer-price figures are anticipated by economists to show conflicting signals: the headline measure could accelerate for the first time in half a year, while an underlying index stripping out volatile items such as energy may show slowing. It’s that latter gauge that ECB officials are watching — and if the report were to show so-called core inflation unexpectedly quickening, a bigger rate move could yet transpire.Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg surveys of economistsOther monetary policy decisions are also due from across the region:Danish policy makers normally follow any ECB rate move with a similar one of their own. Any hike is likely to transpire in the hours after the outcome in Frankfurt on Thursday.Earlier that day, Norway’s central bank may raise borrowing costs by a quarter point, keeping up pressure on inflation just as the economy proves more resilient than expected.The Czech central bank on Wednesday is expected to leave rates unchanged despite increasingly hawkish rhetoric from its board members.It’s a quieter week in the UK, where officials will enter a blackout period before their decision on May 11. Among data due there are shop prices from the British Retail Consortium, Nationwide house prices, and the Bank of England’s mortgage approval and consumer-credit data.Figures on Wednesday will probably show that fourth-quarter economic growth in Kenya slowed to 4% from 4.7% in the prior three months. That’s as unfavorable weather conditions, higher input costs, foreign-currency shortages, rising interest rates and government spending cuts curtailed output growth. Turkish inflation is expected to remain high in data due Wednesday but price gains are anticipated to cool, with the Treasury Minister saying they’ll dip below 50%. On Friday, Turkey’s trade balance may take another hit from a surge in energy and gold imports. Data for the country are being closely watched ahead of close-run elections on May 14.AsiaChina’s latest PMI figures on Sunday are expected to show a continued recovery in activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors as the impact of earlier Covid lockdowns recede, though at a slower pace of expansion. What are likely to be largely encouraging signs for the global economy from China may contrast with South Korean trade figures out Monday that are forecast to show a gloomier outlook. Inflation figures Tuesday should hint at whether the Bank of Korea’s decision to keep rates on hold is supported by cooling price growth. Regional PMIs the same day will fill out the picture for Asia’s current economic momentum. Finance ministers and central bank governors are set to gather for the annual Asian Development Bank meeting in South Korea, with climate financing measures among the matters under discussion. Senior officials from both Japan and South Korea are expected to attend. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged again as inflationary pressure Down Under continues to edge down from elevated levels. Malaysia’s central bank is also seen standing pat on Wednesday. Indonesia, Thailand and Taiwan are all due to release price data during the week.Latin AmericaThe week kicks off with the April consumer price report for Peru’s capital, Lima, which likely slowed for a third month from 8.4% in March. Central bank chief Julio Velarde sees inflation hitting 3% by year-end.The bottom line of this week’s Brazilian central bank rate decision is a given — the key rate will be kept unchanged at 13.75% for a sixth straight meeting.Any drama will come from the post-decision communique: Brazil watchers will be on the lookout for shifts to a standing warning that the bank won’t hesitate to lift rates to counter resurgent inflation.In Colombia, publication of the central bank’s monetary policy report and minutes of its recent meeting may take a back seat to the April 26 ouster of finance chief Jose Antonio Ocampo by President Gustavo Petro, and subsequent tumble by the nation’s assets.The week may, however, end on a propitious note. Data out of Colombia on Friday may show inflation slowed for the first time in 11 months from March’s 13.34%, perhaps even below 13%. With that, inflation in all five of Latin America’s big targeting economies would be falling simultaneously once again for the first time since April 2020.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941247462,"gmtCreate":1680331073657,"gmtModify":1680334657293,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pure bullshit&nbsp;","listText":"Pure bullshit&nbsp;","text":"Pure bullshit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941247462","repostId":"2324093903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2324093903","pubTimestamp":1680315097,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2324093903?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-01 10:11","language":"en","title":"SPY: The Recession Expected To Start Next Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2324093903","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.The S&P 500 is still overvalued,","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>The US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.</p></li><li><p>The S&amp;P 500 is still overvalued, and earnings expectations don&#39;t yet reflect an imminent recession.</p></li><li><p>Thus, there is a considerable downside to SPY.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfea4a052824511fde132a80490e6b7f\" alt=\"ZargonDesign\" title=\"ZargonDesign\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"600\"/><span>ZargonDesign</span></p><p></p><h2>The Phase 2 recessionary selloff approaching</h2><p>I separate the full bear market into the three phases:</p><ol><li><p>Phase 1 is the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff. During this Phase 1, the Fed tightens the monetary policy, which bursts the asset price bubbles and causes the contraction in PE multiple. The 2022 selloff was the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff, which caused the contraction of S&amp;P 500 PE ratio from 35 to 18, and busted the bubbles in cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, tech, and other speculative bets.</p></li><li><p>Phase 2 is the Recessionary selloff. The Fed&#39;s tightening policy usually causes a recession, during which corporate earnings decline, and the PE ratio further contracts. We are about the enter this stage, as I will explain in this article.</p></li><li><p>Phase 3 is the major Credit Crunch caused by the deeper and longer recessions, during which the credit spreads spike, as the overleveraged corporate/consumer/government sectors default on loans, hedge funds collapse due to margin calls, and the counterparty risk freezes the credit markets. Not all recessions end with the credit crunch, and it&#39;s too early to predict whether the current cycle will produce the major credit crunch.</p></li></ol><p>This is the chart for the ETF that tracks the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). The Liquidity based selloff started with the rise in 2Y yields in January 2O22 due to expectations of monetary policy tightening. There have been two major bear market rallies based on the expectations of the &#34;Fed pivot&#34;. The Banking Crisis in March of 2023 is the turning point, which transitions the Liquidity Selloff into the Recessionary selloff - as it acts as the catalyst for recession due to the resulting credit tightness.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66497e4f96b6a95079c3cb61cc76ab69\" alt=\"Barchart\" title=\"Barchart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span>Barchart</span></p><p></p><h2>When is the recession coming?</h2><p>People always ask me for the timing: when is the recession coming, and how long will it last? I don&#39;t try to predict the actual timing, but I react as the preliminary signals emerge. I also closely monitor the opinions and research of Wall Street analysts, just to make sure my opinion is not as contrarian, even though I do tend to see things before the others. So, this is the sample of what appears to be the consensus on Wall Street at this point:</p><p>The Conference Board sees the recession starting in Q2 of 2023, and last for three quarters, until Q1 2024. Here is the quote and the recent forecast:</p><blockquote>US GDP growth defied expectations in late 2022 and early 2023 data has shown unexpected strength. The US economy, and especially the US consumer, has resisted the duel headwinds of high inflation and rising interest rates. Because of this, we are increasing our Q1 2023 forecast to 1 percent. However, we continue to forecast that the US economy will slip into recession in 2023 and expect GDP growth to contract for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2 2023. These changes to the quarterly forecast result in an upgrade to our annual forecast for 2023 and a downgrade to our annual forecast for 2024.</blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3e3132d37805b3612a43f957708ce6d\" alt=\"The Conference Board\" title=\"The Conference Board\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"461\"/><span>The Conference Board</span></p><p></p><p>ING agrees, they also see the US recession in Q2 2023 and lasting for three quarters:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c54ab0866222de65803f0f2b3a63bbd\" alt=\"ING 3/31/2023\" title=\"ING 3/31/2023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\"/><span>ING 3/31/2023</span></p><p></p><p>Blackrock weekly commentary as of March 27th, 2023 not only sees the recession forthcoming, but also sees the Fed keeping the monetary policy tight during the recession:</p><blockquote>Markets have been quick to price in rate cuts as a result of the banking sector turmoil and the Fed signaling a coming pause. We don&#39;t see rate cuts this year - that&#39;s the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit. Now they&#39;re causing the recession to fight sticky inflation - and that makes rate cuts unlikely, in our view. Stocks have held up due to hopes for rates cuts that we don&#39;t see coming.</blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8903a77c449ec7cbeaaf59e6482044\" alt=\"Blackrock 3/27/2023\" title=\"Blackrock 3/27/2023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\"/><span>Blackrock 3/27/2023</span></p><p></p><p>This is a sample, but it represents the Wall Street consensus, the US economy is likely to be in a recession, possibly in Q2 2023 - that&#39;s next week. Also, Wall Street seems to agree with the Fed, there will be no rate cuts this year, despite the recession.</p><h2>Implications for S&amp;P 500</h2><p>S&amp;P 500 is exiting the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff with still overvalued forward PE ratio at 18. More importantly, the earnings for S&amp;P 500 have not been revised lower by bottom-up analysts. Thus, not only we can expect the selloff due to the expected downside revisions of corporate earnings, but also the selloff due to further contraction of the PE ratio down to the 15 level. Thus, there is a considerable downside to S&amp;P 500.</p><p>The chart above shows that SPY has been stuck in the range which corresponds to about 3700-4200 on S&amp;P 500 (SP500).</p><p>The October bottom was due to the expected Fed pivot - before the recession arrives, which I considered as a possible scenario, but at this point this is extremely unlikely due to (at this point really) an imminent recession.</p><p>SPY is up around 5.5% YTD in 2023, but the gains are unproportionally driven by the big tech stocks in Communications (XLC), Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) sectors. This could be due to the specific AI theme, also due to lower interest rates since October, but I think it&#39;s mostly a bear-market bounce from the deep selloff in 2022 and driven by short-covering and retail investor inflows.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e898b2ac6791660af1438d1b7d2944ab\" alt=\"SPDRSectorSelect\" title=\"SPDRSectorSelect\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"693\"/><span>SPDRSectorSelect</span></p><p></p><p>In fact, Goldman Sachs states in the March issue of Market Pulse that the stock market performance this year is driven by short-covering:</p><blockquote>MOMENTUM: This year&#39;s rally has been driven by short covering, fueling a liquidity comeback. We anticipate momentum and technical factors to further elevate market volatility. In this environment, we believe managed futures may be able to exploit such opportunities.</blockquote><h2>What&#39;s next?</h2><p>The near-term recession will have to be confirmed with the data. Wall Street does not expect a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, but we do have to see some weakness in the weekly initial unemployment claims.</p><p>More importantly, the earnings season will have to support the expected decline in earnings via downgrades in earnings guidance from the cyclical companies, and especially the banks, which have to confirm the expected credit tightness.</p><p>Longer term, all recessions end with the policy support: monetary and fiscal. This time, however, the monetary policy support is limited by sticky inflation, which I expect to remain above the 2% target due to the unfolding trend of de-globalization. Further, the political divide in the US political sphere will make it very difficult to pass any effective policy support - especially before the 2024 election. In my view, this increases the probability of a much deeper and longer recession.</p><p><em>This article is written by Damir Tokic for reference only. Please note the risks.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The Recession Expected To Start Next Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The Recession Expected To Start Next Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-01 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591562-spy-the-recession-expected-to-start-next-week><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.The S&P 500 is still overvalued, and earnings expectations don't yet reflect an imminent recession.Thus, there is a considerable ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591562-spy-the-recession-expected-to-start-next-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591562-spy-the-recession-expected-to-start-next-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2324093903","content_text":"SummaryThe US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.The S&P 500 is still overvalued, and earnings expectations don't yet reflect an imminent recession.Thus, there is a considerable downside to SPY.ZargonDesignThe Phase 2 recessionary selloff approachingI separate the full bear market into the three phases:Phase 1 is the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff. During this Phase 1, the Fed tightens the monetary policy, which bursts the asset price bubbles and causes the contraction in PE multiple. The 2022 selloff was the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff, which caused the contraction of S&P 500 PE ratio from 35 to 18, and busted the bubbles in cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, tech, and other speculative bets.Phase 2 is the Recessionary selloff. The Fed's tightening policy usually causes a recession, during which corporate earnings decline, and the PE ratio further contracts. We are about the enter this stage, as I will explain in this article.Phase 3 is the major Credit Crunch caused by the deeper and longer recessions, during which the credit spreads spike, as the overleveraged corporate/consumer/government sectors default on loans, hedge funds collapse due to margin calls, and the counterparty risk freezes the credit markets. Not all recessions end with the credit crunch, and it's too early to predict whether the current cycle will produce the major credit crunch.This is the chart for the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). The Liquidity based selloff started with the rise in 2Y yields in January 2O22 due to expectations of monetary policy tightening. There have been two major bear market rallies based on the expectations of the \"Fed pivot\". The Banking Crisis in March of 2023 is the turning point, which transitions the Liquidity Selloff into the Recessionary selloff - as it acts as the catalyst for recession due to the resulting credit tightness.BarchartWhen is the recession coming?People always ask me for the timing: when is the recession coming, and how long will it last? I don't try to predict the actual timing, but I react as the preliminary signals emerge. I also closely monitor the opinions and research of Wall Street analysts, just to make sure my opinion is not as contrarian, even though I do tend to see things before the others. So, this is the sample of what appears to be the consensus on Wall Street at this point:The Conference Board sees the recession starting in Q2 of 2023, and last for three quarters, until Q1 2024. Here is the quote and the recent forecast:US GDP growth defied expectations in late 2022 and early 2023 data has shown unexpected strength. The US economy, and especially the US consumer, has resisted the duel headwinds of high inflation and rising interest rates. Because of this, we are increasing our Q1 2023 forecast to 1 percent. However, we continue to forecast that the US economy will slip into recession in 2023 and expect GDP growth to contract for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2 2023. These changes to the quarterly forecast result in an upgrade to our annual forecast for 2023 and a downgrade to our annual forecast for 2024.The Conference BoardING agrees, they also see the US recession in Q2 2023 and lasting for three quarters:ING 3/31/2023Blackrock weekly commentary as of March 27th, 2023 not only sees the recession forthcoming, but also sees the Fed keeping the monetary policy tight during the recession:Markets have been quick to price in rate cuts as a result of the banking sector turmoil and the Fed signaling a coming pause. We don't see rate cuts this year - that's the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit. Now they're causing the recession to fight sticky inflation - and that makes rate cuts unlikely, in our view. Stocks have held up due to hopes for rates cuts that we don't see coming.Blackrock 3/27/2023This is a sample, but it represents the Wall Street consensus, the US economy is likely to be in a recession, possibly in Q2 2023 - that's next week. Also, Wall Street seems to agree with the Fed, there will be no rate cuts this year, despite the recession.Implications for S&P 500S&P 500 is exiting the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff with still overvalued forward PE ratio at 18. More importantly, the earnings for S&P 500 have not been revised lower by bottom-up analysts. Thus, not only we can expect the selloff due to the expected downside revisions of corporate earnings, but also the selloff due to further contraction of the PE ratio down to the 15 level. Thus, there is a considerable downside to S&P 500.The chart above shows that SPY has been stuck in the range which corresponds to about 3700-4200 on S&P 500 (SP500).The October bottom was due to the expected Fed pivot - before the recession arrives, which I considered as a possible scenario, but at this point this is extremely unlikely due to (at this point really) an imminent recession.SPY is up around 5.5% YTD in 2023, but the gains are unproportionally driven by the big tech stocks in Communications (XLC), Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) sectors. This could be due to the specific AI theme, also due to lower interest rates since October, but I think it's mostly a bear-market bounce from the deep selloff in 2022 and driven by short-covering and retail investor inflows.SPDRSectorSelectIn fact, Goldman Sachs states in the March issue of Market Pulse that the stock market performance this year is driven by short-covering:MOMENTUM: This year's rally has been driven by short covering, fueling a liquidity comeback. We anticipate momentum and technical factors to further elevate market volatility. In this environment, we believe managed futures may be able to exploit such opportunities.What's next?The near-term recession will have to be confirmed with the data. Wall Street does not expect a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, but we do have to see some weakness in the weekly initial unemployment claims.More importantly, the earnings season will have to support the expected decline in earnings via downgrades in earnings guidance from the cyclical companies, and especially the banks, which have to confirm the expected credit tightness.Longer term, all recessions end with the policy support: monetary and fiscal. This time, however, the monetary policy support is limited by sticky inflation, which I expect to remain above the 2% target due to the unfolding trend of de-globalization. Further, the political divide in the US political sphere will make it very difficult to pass any effective policy support - especially before the 2024 election. In my view, this increases the probability of a much deeper and longer recession.This article is written by Damir Tokic for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":187131804438624,"gmtCreate":1686725751820,"gmtModify":1686725755817,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pure NONSENSE&nbsp;","listText":"Pure NONSENSE&nbsp;","text":"Pure NONSENSE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187131804438624","repostId":"2343567514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":266995437359184,"gmtCreate":1706194452516,"gmtModify":1706194455454,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Very DISAPPOINTING!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Very DISAPPOINTING!!!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Very DISAPPOINTING!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/266995437359184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":286743180284088,"gmtCreate":1711028099600,"gmtModify":1711028104978,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Freaking Tiger is RIGGED","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Freaking Tiger is RIGGED","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Freaking Tiger is RIGGED","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/286743180284088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":275922342248584,"gmtCreate":1708402700183,"gmtModify":1708414162450,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worst budget measures of all time with total disregard &amp; insensitivity to the nation's needs .... DISAPPOINTING CITIZEN!!!","listText":"Worst budget measures of all time with total disregard &amp; insensitivity to the nation's needs .... DISAPPOINTING CITIZEN!!!","text":"Worst budget measures of all time with total disregard & insensitivity to the nation's needs .... DISAPPOINTING CITIZEN!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/275922342248584","repostId":"1155990639","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155990639","pubTimestamp":1708399656,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155990639?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-20 11:27","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singaporeans Say Budget Fails to Ease Living Costs, Survey Finds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155990639","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enoughVouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impactThe spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government bu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enough</p></li><li><p>Vouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impact</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3046160046f73f2e9d6422b880a5692e\" alt=\"The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.\" title=\"The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"/><span>The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.</span></p><p>Six in 10 Singapore citizens and residents think that the government’s latest budget measures aren’t enough to help them cope with the rising cost of living, according to a new survey.</p><p>Only 35% of respondents polled by Milieu Insight said they were reassured by the social aid unveiled in the budget for the new fiscal year starting April, while 44% reported feeling neutral.</p><p>Singapore’s ruling party is giving handouts to ease angst over rising costs while navigating a path back to <u>fiscal prudence</u>. The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.</p><p>Of the measures announced by the government on Friday, the S$600 ($445) worth of vouchers that Singaporean households can use at groceries and hawker centers was by far considered to have the most significant impact by respondents to the Milieu poll.</p><p>The survey took place from February 17-19 and covered 1,002 respondents.</p><p>The budget was more conservative than expected, as the Finance Ministry looks to minimize the risks of overheating the economy, said Kai Wei Ang, an economist at Bank of America.</p><p>The budget address underlined “elevated concerns” about inflation and cost-of-living issues that are closely watched by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the analyst said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingaporeans Say Budget Fails to Ease Living Costs, Survey Finds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-20 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/singaporeans-say-budget-fails-to-ease-living-costs-survey-finds><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enoughVouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impactThe spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/singaporeans-say-budget-fails-to-ease-living-costs-survey-finds\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/singaporeans-say-budget-fails-to-ease-living-costs-survey-finds","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155990639","content_text":"Majority of citizens, residents think latest aid is not enoughVouchers for groceries, food vendors credited with most impactThe spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.Six in 10 Singapore citizens and residents think that the government’s latest budget measures aren’t enough to help them cope with the rising cost of living, according to a new survey.Only 35% of respondents polled by Milieu Insight said they were reassured by the social aid unveiled in the budget for the new fiscal year starting April, while 44% reported feeling neutral.Singapore’s ruling party is giving handouts to ease angst over rising costs while navigating a path back to fiscal prudence. The spending plan announced last week is expected to swing the government budget back to a surplus, after the widest deficit since the pandemic.Of the measures announced by the government on Friday, the S$600 ($445) worth of vouchers that Singaporean households can use at groceries and hawker centers was by far considered to have the most significant impact by respondents to the Milieu poll.The survey took place from February 17-19 and covered 1,002 respondents.The budget was more conservative than expected, as the Finance Ministry looks to minimize the risks of overheating the economy, said Kai Wei Ang, an economist at Bank of America.The budget address underlined “elevated concerns” about inflation and cost-of-living issues that are closely watched by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the analyst said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947452572,"gmtCreate":1683533144697,"gmtModify":1683534552068,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get rid of Biden immediately and all problems solved !!!","listText":"Get rid of Biden immediately and all problems solved !!!","text":"Get rid of Biden immediately and all problems solved !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947452572","repostId":"2333425404","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947819245,"gmtCreate":1682867126888,"gmtModify":1682901703303,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dumb Fed&nbsp;","listText":"Dumb Fed&nbsp;","text":"Dumb Fed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947819245","repostId":"1126070801","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":221163088937056,"gmtCreate":1695016291756,"gmtModify":1695016295885,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Absolutely agreed 1000%&nbsp;","listText":"Absolutely agreed 1000%&nbsp;","text":"Absolutely agreed 1000%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/221163088937056","repostId":"2367641801","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2367641801","pubTimestamp":1695002016,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2367641801?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-18 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple's Recent iPhone Launch Was Very Sleepable, Analyst Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2367641801","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Apple's  recent unveiling of its iPhone 15 lineup and new smartwatches didn't impress everyone.Though the iPhone maker is the largest company in the world, it still has room to improve, Needham analyst Laura Martin told Yahoo Finance Live this week.\"The product launch was very sleepable,\" Martin said . \"Nothing's new, nothing's exciting.\". At the event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters, Apple showed off its latest smartphones, which include the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, the iPhone 15 Pro, and the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The company also announced new smartwatches, including the Apple Watch Series 9 and the higher-end Apple Watch Ultra 2.\"They took a very heavy hand on their environmental pledge to be carbon neutral by 2030, including a video where Tim Cook was sort of embarrassingly talking to Mother Nature and apologizing for his carbon footprint,\" Martin said. \"They really put a lot of money into the brand of Apple yesterday because the product iterations were very mediocre.\". Apple","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Apple&#39;s (AAPL) recent unveiling of its iPhone 15 lineup and new smartwatches didn&#39;t impress everyone. </p><p>Though the iPhone maker is the largest company in the world, it still has room to improve, Needham analyst Laura Martin told Yahoo Finance Live this week.</p><p>&#34;The product launch was very sleepable,&#34; Martin said (video above). &#34;Nothing&#39;s new, nothing&#39;s exciting.&#34;</p><p>At the event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters, Apple showed off its latest smartphones, which include the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, the iPhone 15 Pro, and the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The company also announced new smartwatches, including the Apple Watch Series 9 and the higher-end Apple Watch Ultra 2.</p><p>One highlight of the annual event was Apple&#39;s new ad on its sustainability efforts, starring Academy Award winner Octavia Spencer.</p><p>&#34;They took a very heavy hand on their environmental pledge to be carbon neutral by 2030, including a video where Tim Cook was sort of embarrassingly talking to Mother Nature and apologizing for his carbon footprint,&#34; Martin said. &#34;They really put a lot of money into the brand of Apple yesterday because the product iterations were very mediocre.&#34;</p><p>Additionally, Martin stated that Apple is lagging far behind competitors Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) when it comes to generative AI.</p><p>&#34;Those three cloud companies, in our opinion, will end up twice as big as Apple in the end [when it comes to AI],&#34; Martin said. &#34;Apple will integrate generative AI into its own business, but my opinion is that every American company to survive will have to use generative AI to either lower costs or accelerate the product introduction.&#34;</p><p>However, not everyone agrees with Martin&#39;s analysis. </p><p>&#34;Apple&#39;s iPhone 15 launch event was overall an impressive event which in our opinion lays the groundwork for a major upgrade cycle over the next year that will surprise the Street to the upside,&#34; Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote on Sept. 13.</p><p>Wedbush upgraded its price target on Apple stock to $240 from $230 and reiterated an Outperform rating, citing the iPhone 15 upgrade cycle.</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's Recent iPhone Launch Was Very Sleepable, Analyst Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's Recent iPhone Launch Was Very Sleepable, Analyst Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-18 09:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-recent-iphone-launch-was-very-sleepable-analyst-says-175708975.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple's (AAPL) recent unveiling of its iPhone 15 lineup and new smartwatches didn't impress everyone. Though the iPhone maker is the largest company in the world, it still has room to improve, Needham...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-recent-iphone-launch-was-very-sleepable-analyst-says-175708975.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-recent-iphone-launch-was-very-sleepable-analyst-says-175708975.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2367641801","content_text":"Apple's (AAPL) recent unveiling of its iPhone 15 lineup and new smartwatches didn't impress everyone. Though the iPhone maker is the largest company in the world, it still has room to improve, Needham analyst Laura Martin told Yahoo Finance Live this week.\"The product launch was very sleepable,\" Martin said (video above). \"Nothing's new, nothing's exciting.\"At the event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters, Apple showed off its latest smartphones, which include the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, the iPhone 15 Pro, and the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The company also announced new smartwatches, including the Apple Watch Series 9 and the higher-end Apple Watch Ultra 2.One highlight of the annual event was Apple's new ad on its sustainability efforts, starring Academy Award winner Octavia Spencer.\"They took a very heavy hand on their environmental pledge to be carbon neutral by 2030, including a video where Tim Cook was sort of embarrassingly talking to Mother Nature and apologizing for his carbon footprint,\" Martin said. \"They really put a lot of money into the brand of Apple yesterday because the product iterations were very mediocre.\"Additionally, Martin stated that Apple is lagging far behind competitors Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) when it comes to generative AI.\"Those three cloud companies, in our opinion, will end up twice as big as Apple in the end [when it comes to AI],\" Martin said. \"Apple will integrate generative AI into its own business, but my opinion is that every American company to survive will have to use generative AI to either lower costs or accelerate the product introduction.\"However, not everyone agrees with Martin's analysis. \"Apple's iPhone 15 launch event was overall an impressive event which in our opinion lays the groundwork for a major upgrade cycle over the next year that will surprise the Street to the upside,\" Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote on Sept. 13.Wedbush upgraded its price target on Apple stock to $240 from $230 and reiterated an Outperform rating, citing the iPhone 15 upgrade cycle.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":206121596006424,"gmtCreate":1691336811882,"gmtModify":1691371777381,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bowman is talking crapshit&nbsp;","listText":"Bowman is talking crapshit&nbsp;","text":"Bowman is talking crapshit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/206121596006424","repostId":"2357148844","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941247462,"gmtCreate":1680331073657,"gmtModify":1680334657293,"author":{"id":"3581410658404472","authorId":"3581410658404472","name":"Kangaroo2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4af25905cb13f056c0dea7338d0381","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pure bullshit&nbsp;","listText":"Pure bullshit&nbsp;","text":"Pure bullshit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941247462","repostId":"2324093903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2324093903","pubTimestamp":1680315097,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2324093903?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-01 10:11","language":"en","title":"SPY: The Recession Expected To Start Next Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2324093903","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.The S&P 500 is still overvalued,","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>The US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.</p></li><li><p>The S&amp;P 500 is still overvalued, and earnings expectations don&#39;t yet reflect an imminent recession.</p></li><li><p>Thus, there is a considerable downside to SPY.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfea4a052824511fde132a80490e6b7f\" alt=\"ZargonDesign\" title=\"ZargonDesign\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"600\"/><span>ZargonDesign</span></p><p></p><h2>The Phase 2 recessionary selloff approaching</h2><p>I separate the full bear market into the three phases:</p><ol><li><p>Phase 1 is the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff. During this Phase 1, the Fed tightens the monetary policy, which bursts the asset price bubbles and causes the contraction in PE multiple. The 2022 selloff was the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff, which caused the contraction of S&amp;P 500 PE ratio from 35 to 18, and busted the bubbles in cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, tech, and other speculative bets.</p></li><li><p>Phase 2 is the Recessionary selloff. The Fed&#39;s tightening policy usually causes a recession, during which corporate earnings decline, and the PE ratio further contracts. We are about the enter this stage, as I will explain in this article.</p></li><li><p>Phase 3 is the major Credit Crunch caused by the deeper and longer recessions, during which the credit spreads spike, as the overleveraged corporate/consumer/government sectors default on loans, hedge funds collapse due to margin calls, and the counterparty risk freezes the credit markets. Not all recessions end with the credit crunch, and it&#39;s too early to predict whether the current cycle will produce the major credit crunch.</p></li></ol><p>This is the chart for the ETF that tracks the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). The Liquidity based selloff started with the rise in 2Y yields in January 2O22 due to expectations of monetary policy tightening. There have been two major bear market rallies based on the expectations of the &#34;Fed pivot&#34;. The Banking Crisis in March of 2023 is the turning point, which transitions the Liquidity Selloff into the Recessionary selloff - as it acts as the catalyst for recession due to the resulting credit tightness.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66497e4f96b6a95079c3cb61cc76ab69\" alt=\"Barchart\" title=\"Barchart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span>Barchart</span></p><p></p><h2>When is the recession coming?</h2><p>People always ask me for the timing: when is the recession coming, and how long will it last? I don&#39;t try to predict the actual timing, but I react as the preliminary signals emerge. I also closely monitor the opinions and research of Wall Street analysts, just to make sure my opinion is not as contrarian, even though I do tend to see things before the others. So, this is the sample of what appears to be the consensus on Wall Street at this point:</p><p>The Conference Board sees the recession starting in Q2 of 2023, and last for three quarters, until Q1 2024. Here is the quote and the recent forecast:</p><blockquote>US GDP growth defied expectations in late 2022 and early 2023 data has shown unexpected strength. The US economy, and especially the US consumer, has resisted the duel headwinds of high inflation and rising interest rates. Because of this, we are increasing our Q1 2023 forecast to 1 percent. However, we continue to forecast that the US economy will slip into recession in 2023 and expect GDP growth to contract for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2 2023. These changes to the quarterly forecast result in an upgrade to our annual forecast for 2023 and a downgrade to our annual forecast for 2024.</blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3e3132d37805b3612a43f957708ce6d\" alt=\"The Conference Board\" title=\"The Conference Board\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"461\"/><span>The Conference Board</span></p><p></p><p>ING agrees, they also see the US recession in Q2 2023 and lasting for three quarters:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c54ab0866222de65803f0f2b3a63bbd\" alt=\"ING 3/31/2023\" title=\"ING 3/31/2023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\"/><span>ING 3/31/2023</span></p><p></p><p>Blackrock weekly commentary as of March 27th, 2023 not only sees the recession forthcoming, but also sees the Fed keeping the monetary policy tight during the recession:</p><blockquote>Markets have been quick to price in rate cuts as a result of the banking sector turmoil and the Fed signaling a coming pause. We don&#39;t see rate cuts this year - that&#39;s the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit. Now they&#39;re causing the recession to fight sticky inflation - and that makes rate cuts unlikely, in our view. Stocks have held up due to hopes for rates cuts that we don&#39;t see coming.</blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8903a77c449ec7cbeaaf59e6482044\" alt=\"Blackrock 3/27/2023\" title=\"Blackrock 3/27/2023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\"/><span>Blackrock 3/27/2023</span></p><p></p><p>This is a sample, but it represents the Wall Street consensus, the US economy is likely to be in a recession, possibly in Q2 2023 - that&#39;s next week. Also, Wall Street seems to agree with the Fed, there will be no rate cuts this year, despite the recession.</p><h2>Implications for S&amp;P 500</h2><p>S&amp;P 500 is exiting the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff with still overvalued forward PE ratio at 18. More importantly, the earnings for S&amp;P 500 have not been revised lower by bottom-up analysts. Thus, not only we can expect the selloff due to the expected downside revisions of corporate earnings, but also the selloff due to further contraction of the PE ratio down to the 15 level. Thus, there is a considerable downside to S&amp;P 500.</p><p>The chart above shows that SPY has been stuck in the range which corresponds to about 3700-4200 on S&amp;P 500 (SP500).</p><p>The October bottom was due to the expected Fed pivot - before the recession arrives, which I considered as a possible scenario, but at this point this is extremely unlikely due to (at this point really) an imminent recession.</p><p>SPY is up around 5.5% YTD in 2023, but the gains are unproportionally driven by the big tech stocks in Communications (XLC), Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) sectors. This could be due to the specific AI theme, also due to lower interest rates since October, but I think it&#39;s mostly a bear-market bounce from the deep selloff in 2022 and driven by short-covering and retail investor inflows.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e898b2ac6791660af1438d1b7d2944ab\" alt=\"SPDRSectorSelect\" title=\"SPDRSectorSelect\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"693\"/><span>SPDRSectorSelect</span></p><p></p><p>In fact, Goldman Sachs states in the March issue of Market Pulse that the stock market performance this year is driven by short-covering:</p><blockquote>MOMENTUM: This year&#39;s rally has been driven by short covering, fueling a liquidity comeback. We anticipate momentum and technical factors to further elevate market volatility. In this environment, we believe managed futures may be able to exploit such opportunities.</blockquote><h2>What&#39;s next?</h2><p>The near-term recession will have to be confirmed with the data. Wall Street does not expect a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, but we do have to see some weakness in the weekly initial unemployment claims.</p><p>More importantly, the earnings season will have to support the expected decline in earnings via downgrades in earnings guidance from the cyclical companies, and especially the banks, which have to confirm the expected credit tightness.</p><p>Longer term, all recessions end with the policy support: monetary and fiscal. This time, however, the monetary policy support is limited by sticky inflation, which I expect to remain above the 2% target due to the unfolding trend of de-globalization. Further, the political divide in the US political sphere will make it very difficult to pass any effective policy support - especially before the 2024 election. In my view, this increases the probability of a much deeper and longer recession.</p><p><em>This article is written by Damir Tokic for reference only. Please note the risks.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The Recession Expected To Start Next Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The Recession Expected To Start Next Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-01 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591562-spy-the-recession-expected-to-start-next-week><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.The S&P 500 is still overvalued, and earnings expectations don't yet reflect an imminent recession.Thus, there is a considerable ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591562-spy-the-recession-expected-to-start-next-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4591562-spy-the-recession-expected-to-start-next-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2324093903","content_text":"SummaryThe US economy is expected to enter the recession in Q2 2023.The S&P 500 is still overvalued, and earnings expectations don't yet reflect an imminent recession.Thus, there is a considerable downside to SPY.ZargonDesignThe Phase 2 recessionary selloff approachingI separate the full bear market into the three phases:Phase 1 is the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff. During this Phase 1, the Fed tightens the monetary policy, which bursts the asset price bubbles and causes the contraction in PE multiple. The 2022 selloff was the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff, which caused the contraction of S&P 500 PE ratio from 35 to 18, and busted the bubbles in cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, tech, and other speculative bets.Phase 2 is the Recessionary selloff. The Fed's tightening policy usually causes a recession, during which corporate earnings decline, and the PE ratio further contracts. We are about the enter this stage, as I will explain in this article.Phase 3 is the major Credit Crunch caused by the deeper and longer recessions, during which the credit spreads spike, as the overleveraged corporate/consumer/government sectors default on loans, hedge funds collapse due to margin calls, and the counterparty risk freezes the credit markets. Not all recessions end with the credit crunch, and it's too early to predict whether the current cycle will produce the major credit crunch.This is the chart for the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). The Liquidity based selloff started with the rise in 2Y yields in January 2O22 due to expectations of monetary policy tightening. There have been two major bear market rallies based on the expectations of the \"Fed pivot\". The Banking Crisis in March of 2023 is the turning point, which transitions the Liquidity Selloff into the Recessionary selloff - as it acts as the catalyst for recession due to the resulting credit tightness.BarchartWhen is the recession coming?People always ask me for the timing: when is the recession coming, and how long will it last? I don't try to predict the actual timing, but I react as the preliminary signals emerge. I also closely monitor the opinions and research of Wall Street analysts, just to make sure my opinion is not as contrarian, even though I do tend to see things before the others. So, this is the sample of what appears to be the consensus on Wall Street at this point:The Conference Board sees the recession starting in Q2 of 2023, and last for three quarters, until Q1 2024. Here is the quote and the recent forecast:US GDP growth defied expectations in late 2022 and early 2023 data has shown unexpected strength. The US economy, and especially the US consumer, has resisted the duel headwinds of high inflation and rising interest rates. Because of this, we are increasing our Q1 2023 forecast to 1 percent. However, we continue to forecast that the US economy will slip into recession in 2023 and expect GDP growth to contract for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2 2023. These changes to the quarterly forecast result in an upgrade to our annual forecast for 2023 and a downgrade to our annual forecast for 2024.The Conference BoardING agrees, they also see the US recession in Q2 2023 and lasting for three quarters:ING 3/31/2023Blackrock weekly commentary as of March 27th, 2023 not only sees the recession forthcoming, but also sees the Fed keeping the monetary policy tight during the recession:Markets have been quick to price in rate cuts as a result of the banking sector turmoil and the Fed signaling a coming pause. We don't see rate cuts this year - that's the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit. Now they're causing the recession to fight sticky inflation - and that makes rate cuts unlikely, in our view. Stocks have held up due to hopes for rates cuts that we don't see coming.Blackrock 3/27/2023This is a sample, but it represents the Wall Street consensus, the US economy is likely to be in a recession, possibly in Q2 2023 - that's next week. Also, Wall Street seems to agree with the Fed, there will be no rate cuts this year, despite the recession.Implications for S&P 500S&P 500 is exiting the Fed-induced Liquidity selloff with still overvalued forward PE ratio at 18. More importantly, the earnings for S&P 500 have not been revised lower by bottom-up analysts. Thus, not only we can expect the selloff due to the expected downside revisions of corporate earnings, but also the selloff due to further contraction of the PE ratio down to the 15 level. Thus, there is a considerable downside to S&P 500.The chart above shows that SPY has been stuck in the range which corresponds to about 3700-4200 on S&P 500 (SP500).The October bottom was due to the expected Fed pivot - before the recession arrives, which I considered as a possible scenario, but at this point this is extremely unlikely due to (at this point really) an imminent recession.SPY is up around 5.5% YTD in 2023, but the gains are unproportionally driven by the big tech stocks in Communications (XLC), Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) sectors. This could be due to the specific AI theme, also due to lower interest rates since October, but I think it's mostly a bear-market bounce from the deep selloff in 2022 and driven by short-covering and retail investor inflows.SPDRSectorSelectIn fact, Goldman Sachs states in the March issue of Market Pulse that the stock market performance this year is driven by short-covering:MOMENTUM: This year's rally has been driven by short covering, fueling a liquidity comeback. We anticipate momentum and technical factors to further elevate market volatility. In this environment, we believe managed futures may be able to exploit such opportunities.What's next?The near-term recession will have to be confirmed with the data. Wall Street does not expect a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, but we do have to see some weakness in the weekly initial unemployment claims.More importantly, the earnings season will have to support the expected decline in earnings via downgrades in earnings guidance from the cyclical companies, and especially the banks, which have to confirm the expected credit tightness.Longer term, all recessions end with the policy support: monetary and fiscal. This time, however, the monetary policy support is limited by sticky inflation, which I expect to remain above the 2% target due to the unfolding trend of de-globalization. Further, the political divide in the US political sphere will make it very difficult to pass any effective policy support - especially before the 2024 election. In my view, this increases the probability of a much deeper and longer recession.This article is written by Damir Tokic for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}